FOMO HOUR: JOINED BY @J0HNWANG

Recorded: Aug. 20, 2025 Duration: 1:07:28
Space Recording

Full Transcription

Thank you. you yo yo yo yo yo what up, what up, good morning, good morning, GM, GM, Wednesday, August 20th, 2025, look at that, another beautiful day to have a beautiful day, I got my co-host in the house, Tyler, man, good morning, good morning, good morning, how you guys doing today?
Great man, How are you?
Fantastic. Fantastic. I have an open trading view in three days.
I actually haven't looked. I know you're not going to believe me.
I haven't looked at price of Farcoin in three days.
I don't know what it's at. In Rekt either.
I haven't looked at either Rekt or Farcoin in three days. I don't know what it's at. In Rekt, either. I haven't looked at either Rekt or Far Coin in three days.
Because they're my biggest bags
and they're the bags that swing the hardest during these times.
So, like, I know I'm down, like,
40%. You know what I mean?
So, I don't need to look at it.
So, just let me know if it gets really
bad. You know what I mean? Like, send me the message.
But just know that I'm not looking. Anyways,
Tyler, how you doing,
Tay? I'm good. I'm not looking. Anyways, Tyler, how are you doing today?
I'm trying to manifest some green candles here with the hat.
I will say this.
The spaces I'm listening to, the commentary on the timeline,
you would think that we are in a bear market.
People are ready for us just to top. They won a victory lap calling dads.
Dads are the top.
Dads are going to kick us into the next bear.
It's over.
It's going to be so obvious in hindsight.
And that's all anyone wants to talk about right now.
It feels like bottom signals out there.
I think it's our fellow co-host,
someone that's calling for the end of Dats
and micro strategy being done.
Right, Mando?
Mando, I think you're the one the one right you're sending us into a
bear market here i don't i don't think it's the end of that i'm kidding i uh i still i still don't
know the scenario where people get overly bearish about debts like they just feel like they were
financed at the wrong level but it's not like it's like that much of a worry. If it was all debt they were financed with, then it'd be a worry.
But most of these were just financed with stock.
People were sold the dream that this could trade at like 3X NAV
and they've just been decimated on the stocks.
And maybe that trade is like now slightly diminished.
But I don't, I've said many times, I don't think this is anything
sort of like an FTX-style issue.
There's no hole in anything.
People would just
ETH at the wrong level, basically,
or Bitcoin at the wrong level.
That's the worry.
Hold that thought, because we're going to go there today.
I saw you guys tweet about it.
I think this is the topic
of conversation on the timeline right now at least.
So a lot of signals for me are starting to feel like we're bottoming slowly.
There's a lot of things happening on the timeline that are indicating bottom signals to me,
especially when we're trying to chase what's going to cause the next FTX,
what's going to be the next end of this, the end of that.
So let's talk about that today.
The stock markets, but we know the markets kind of suck. So let's talk about mostly like
that and the state of that, I think, when we talk majors, because it's very relevant. Tyler's top
100. So Tyler, we'll go through stuff probably pretty quickly because in 20 minutes, we'll be
joined by John Wang. We've been DMing, so yo, let's get on the show, let's talk prediction
markets, et cetera. I'm curious to have his thoughts. A lot of you guys turn on.
Actually, 200 people set reminders for John.
So John's got something good going on here, clearly.
Reminder for John's followers that may not watch the show or follow us,
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crypto check out pro.kraken.com trade without trade let's get into this conversation Macro daddy of the land. Can you dig it?
Yeah, GM everyone.
Sorry if my audio is not as good as normal.
But we, yeah, it's a little bit of a weaker day.
Again, I think Bitcoin's down another 1-2%.
We're down to like 112.5 area.
I think the key levels of support are around the 111 to 112 area.
The key levels of support are around the 111 to 112 area.
I guess even around here you could say this is a little bit of a support area.
And for ETH, we're down to 4,100.
I, again, thought around 4,000 to 4,100 is kind of where we would bottom out
and at least bounce from.
In terms of what people are worried about,
we have Fed minutes and the Fed decision or Jackson Hole guidance,
let's say, for next month's Fed decision.
I think we've spoken about that a little bit.
I think most people are expecting a rate cut. Maybe they're making too much of a big deal out of it i think the the other thing is is just that this dat trade this treasury trade is
seemingly coming a bit more to an end um and and there's obviously like three main vehicles here probably to take a look at which is MicroStrategy
there is Bitmine
and there's Shoplink
are those the three biggest
apart from like the miners
Apart from the miners
Bitmine just flipped Mara anyways
so it's the number two
Espet's technically fifth but so it's the number two.
SBET's technically fifth, but yeah, it's three when you just look at the DATs.
So those three DATs, how this has happened, I think we've detailed quite a lot of times,
is for a long time, MicroShare actually traded out of multiple of its assets that it hold. Hell, I don't know how to describe that, but let's say, yeah, you own 100 Bitcoin.
The market was pricing it like you owned 300 Bitcoin.
And that was, people were like,
oh, people would make these like crazy reasons
for why that would be the case, basically.
Part of it was like, oh, it's the only vehicle around um to do this he has some like play with the bitcoin that he's
going to buy all this sort of stuff and because of that that opened up eith companies to come and
say hey we can do this for eith and we can trade at multiples of our treasury um are the biggest have obviously been
Sharplink and Bitmine and those multiples uh have come down a lot so strategy was trading at a
multiple of three at the start of the year it's now trading at a multiple of one and a half um
strategy is down on the year despite uh Bitcoin being up um you also have uh sharp link which was at one
stage trading at like three to ten x multiple i think off its first buy sharp link hit a high of
about 100 um is now trading at a 1.01 uh which basically is basically saying, hey, we're valuing you at
the 100 ETH that you own.
You own 100 ETH, we're valuing 100 ETH.
And then Bitmine's trading at 1.35,
which is kind of
in between.
I think there's maybe been
a misunderstanding just in kind of
what was sold here.
Maybe not even a misunderstanding, but let's say like a false belief in what was sold here, Maybe not even a misunderstanding,
but let's say a false belief in what was sold here
that these could all just go up to 3x
and it was going to be some sort of crazy trade.
And that's slightly deflating.
But the reason why that's important is,
firstly, some people are getting up in arms
and being like, oh, they're all going to go to shit.
I don't think that's really a worry.
They're all financed by equity.
So there's no real
risk of liquidation for any of them.
And I personally think
that the most likely scenarios
you end up getting consolidation between them.
By that I mean
someone like Bitmine that trades at 1.35
will buy somebody who trades at 1.35 will buy somebody
who trades under one um because just for example if you can buy a company let's say you own 100
and suddenly the market actually values you at 80 you could buy that company um if you're if you're
worth 130 versus you're 100 you could buy theTH company and you've just created a bunch of value
for your company.
So that's what I see
as the next real stage of this.
And then there's just a lot of worry about like,
oh, Microsoft is going to like,
it's going to blow up
all this sort of stuff.
I put out a very long post about it today
and I think I've been saying it for a long time.
I didn't think this was good for the common stockholders.
I continue to think that is the real worry here.
I don't think it's a worry for Bitcoin.
I think microstrategy has a microstrategy problem.
Bitcoin doesn't have a microstrategy problem, basically.
It's very much a, they can just keep on issuing common stock to pay for whatever financing they decided to do.
And as a common stockholder, I think they're going to, unless you see like very big gains in Bitcoin, this can be a worry.
This can be a worry basically um and but i think it's a micro strategy problem and i don't think it's that big a deal
but what what it will mean is that all this like oh they're we're gonna buy 25 billion
we're gonna buy 40 billion that probably isn't going to happen anymore so perhaps
the market is pricing in the idea that bitcoin doesn't isn't going to have microtranshares a
continual buyer anymore and then maybe e to set a price in the fact that these dats aren't going to
print that much um in in in the future i i've said this a few times, but I don't know
if that's that much of a
worry as much as
I think we'll just see consolidation
potentially discontinuation
of the same thing. I do think
there's some case for
these trading at a higher multiple
to their NAV.
Probably not 2x, but good management teams
that end up doing interesting business things with their assets,
particularly things like ETH,
which is like an asset you can put into various different things in DeFi.
I think they will probably trade at a higher multiple versus MNAV,
and there'll be a good trade here.
So I'm not worried by this,
but that seems to be the main thing
that is getting people worried.
This is not FTX.
Like FTX was a forced bankruptcy,
which took down the vast majority of the industry,
and they basically had to puke out
all their crypto at the lows.
None of these companies will have
to do that, in my opinion.
They've got no need, there's no
forced liquidation of any of them.
And MicroStrategy, which is the one which is the closest
to doing that because it has
some debt on its balance sheet, basically,
as I've said a number
of times it would have to bitcoin would have to drop like 70 in my opinion for like four or five
years let me put it that way for that to ever really become an issue you'd have to go over
sustained debt maturities and i just don't see it being a problem. So I think the DAT trade in terms of buying is over.
The DAT trade where everything goes to zero and these things are worthless,
that's not a worry.
Even if the stocks go down below MNAV, it doesn't actually really matter.
The market's just going to have to appreciate that these stocks can go
above and below MNAV.
It's happened to MicroStrategy in the past.
MicroStrategy traded well below MNAV.
There's a good...
If you type in MicroStrategy
MNAV, there's a good
chart of the history of MicroStrategy
versus its holdings,
which I was going to post about the day.
I think that's the one misconception the market has had so far
is that it always traded at a premium, and it isn't.
It's not written in stone that these things trade at a premium.
I have a few thoughts.
I think very well said
in general
the one piece I would softly push back on
is the trade being over
I still feel like it's too early to call
the BitMine and Sharplink
trades over
they're in their first two months of existence
they haven't really
tapped into any of a DeFi playbook yet
they haven't rolled out any other types of financial instruments yet.
So I think that the early explosive trade, sure,
maybe that part's over.
The way I've always viewed these is levered bets on the underlying currency
or crypto asset.
So it's not surprising that they're underperforming right now in this dip.
They were overperforming, or Bitmine was at least, in the ETH rally.
ETH would go up 5% in a day, Bitmine would go up 25%.
And now we're seeing the opposite.
Micro strategy is a little bit different.
On the year, it's underperforming Bitcoin.
On the year to date, it's underperforming.
On the one year, it's underperforming Bitcoin. Year to date, it's underperforming. On the one year, it's outperforming.
So it all depends on your timescales.
I think from this driving the bear market, I agree with you.
I feel like a year ago, Saylor was the bogeyman.
It was microstrategy that was going to cause the bear market.
And now folks have shifted that narrative to now it's the other debts.
It's the bear market. And now folks have shifted that narrative to now it's the other dads. It's the downstream dads.
And outside of the biggest players, they're not even that big.
The 15th dad on that list holds $300 million. That's going to collapse.
That's going to drive us into a bear market. I'm not buying it.
I'm not. So. I'm not.
It feels a little overblown, folks trying to collect clout points for predicting what's going to drive its clout.
Yeah, I agree with that too.
Go on, sorry, Mando?
I think what would be really interesting is if we hear,
which may happen here,
Microsoft actually makes an offer to buy this company,
or Bitmine makes an offer to buy this company if they start trading below MNAV.
And then the market will realize how this all works.
It'll just be like, okay, so these smaller ones are just going to be amalgamated into the bigger ones.
okay, so these smaller ones are just going to be amalgamated into the bigger ones.
And they'll probably buy them out either at MNAV or maybe slightly below
if they're trading significantly below.
And they will increasingly look like ETF in terms of vehicle, in my opinion.
And I kind of
I don't know
if you've been watching this show I don't think you find that a shock
we've spoken about it quite a lot of times
that it's difficult
for them to trade sustainably above
2x for example
for any sort of period of time
but I also agree with what you said
I don't think this is over
this is the point
particularly not for the ones that look like they're going to be the vehicles But I also agree with what you said. I don't think this is over. This is the point.
Particularly not for the ones that look like they're going to be the vehicles are Bitmine and MicroStrategy.
And I think as long as they are trading above MNAV,
anywhere above MNAV, the trade's still on
anywhere above MNav, the trade's still on because they can continue to do this.
because they can continue to do this.
And it actually is almost slightly beneficial to them
if they are staying above MNav and others are trading below
because then they can do this sort of thing.
So the failure of one of these is actually definitely not a failure of them all.
Is there a scenario,
a little tinfoil hattie here.
Is it in Tom Lee and his shareholders' interest for him?
Are there scenarios where he should drive the price down
to potentially set up them being able to acquire
another vehicle at an 80% discount?
Is that a potential outcome or would that just be
too nefarious and poke too many holes in the broader debt i don't think they need to do that
i think the market will do it for them i don't know how to describe that but like i think even
if the beast stays where it is right now some companies will start trading well below in there and some will start trading above and it will just happen they don't
i think it's almost irrespective of the price um it's just that the market is slightly
freaking out that the price is gonna is it's gonna do anything um
and and microsoft like i think people the people who are really pissed right now And Microshfti, like, I think
people, the people who are really pissed right now
are Microshfti
common stockholders. Well, they should be, right? That was
like a switch up, like a last minute.
I mean, this has been
going on all year. This isn't something that
if you bring up the MNAV chart, it's
literally, it's been like a slow enslaved
Yeah, I can't find it.
Down to one and a half.
This isn't something...
What they did the other day was
bad, but I think there was
a real misconception in
Microsoft E-commerce that
the more Bitcoin they bought,
the better it was. That was
like a mantra. I don't know if you've
spoken to Microsoft E-commerce over the last 6 to 12 months
or like 18 months.
Yeah. You see?
You can see that actually, this
really happened kind of in January.
And it has continued to happen due to it.
But there was a real belief, you know, that
the more Bitcoin we own, the better
this is. And that,
some of them clung on
to that, you know, with each successive buy they were
like it's so good students keep on buying and they actually i think misunderstood that this was not
going to be that good for them and and that's been this like the breakdown
in the whole world falling down because they're suddenly realizing that they're kind of getting fucked in. They're kind of getting fucked and it's not going to stop. And now that he's already
issued all these securities, the cat's out of the bag. Like he has to pay 10% interest on those
prefs every year if he wants to keep on paying the preferred interest rate. The converts is like
minimally low, but like these press,
you don't have to,
I think how much is the issue like in the billions,
You have to pay,
you have to pay hundreds of millions of dollars of,
of interest every single year on,
Like the only way to pay that is going to be the issuance of more common.
And I think, yeah, they just become the proverbial punching bag of the capital
structure, in my opinion. But it doesn't mean
that he's going to default. It just means that
Bitcoin could go up
to $140,000
and Microsoft
and common stockholders may not even
That would be painful.
We'll see pitchforks.
Bitcoin and MicroStrategy
going to go up.
To be clear, Bitcoin just hit an all-time high, and MicroStrategy
was already heading south.
That's pretty true.
This has already happened.
It's not like it will just continue the trend.
But I do think there was, I wouldn't
diminish what you said there as well for like
what happened this week
yeah like a lot of
people as you know from running
a web3 project like you've got to stick to your
guns like people it's a trust game
to a certain extent and he said one thing
and in two weeks he went back on his
went back on his word like
everyone knows that's not a good track
tactic in any form of business
especially at the highest form right like he's the
king of the that like he's the
role model of that whole
yeah so I think
that's something that just kind of like spooked
people because there was a lot of unshakable
belief that this guy was just
god even if micro-tracking is going lower and then to do that because there was a lot of unshakable belief that this guy was just God. Yeah.
Even if micro-trafficacy stock was going lower.
And then to do that, which I think he needs to do, to be clear,
like he needs to say, look, we can issue more stock to pay back the prefs.
Everyone thought it was issue more stock to buy back Bitcoin.
I took it as we can issue more stock to pay back the prefs interest.
That's how I took that statement as.
Because where else is he going to get the cash?
Where else is he getting hundreds of millions of dollars from
no that makes sense that makes sense it's uh that makes i mean it's funny right like i mean
this is the talk of town and it was when everything's good everybody's like turbo
bullish that's that this that that that for this that for that let's buy this let's buy that
and then the second the market is retesting like i know john know John's here. John's in the studio.
I'm going to bring you up in a second here.
But like, I was just like looking at,
you guys know I'm not a chartist or something.
Like, I don't even trade, by the way.
But like, I look at this, like, is this really bearish?
Like, I just do simple lines.
I think one line per chart.
So this is my one line on Bitcoin.
This is my one line on Ethereum.
This is my one line on ETH. Okay. one line on eth okay i don't need another one
that's what actually you you told us this man of this one like it's like okay and then i think
on solana maybe i have two um because it's different like the pa's been different like
this is solana like are we are we freaking out what how many popcorn lines have you got
uh actually you know what if i open farcone what? If I open Fartcoin right now,
it's going to be the first time since Saturday.
Don't do it.
Just don't do it.
We're having a good conversation.
It's going to be the first time since Saturday
I took Fartcoin price.
Should I just check it?
You know what?
Honestly, Fartcoin's not that bad.
It's not really not.
I mean, I've seen worse.
Just rip it.
Just give me...
Oh, fuck it.
My VPN may... It's really not that bad. It's probably. Just rip it. Fuck it. Just give me. Oh, fuck it. My VPN may.
It's really not that bad.
It's probably like, let me take a guess.
Without looking, knowing the price of our upgrades, it's probably like $850.
I know my shit.
You know what I mean? I think it hit $850 or so.
As long as it's in this little range here.
What's Rekt at?
I haven't looked.
The Rekt's probably what, 350?
Let's see.
Let's see if I know my shit.
Yeah, touch Rekt.
Rekt has a nice bounce.
See, I just, you know what I mean?
I got to a point where last year this time when we have dips like this,
I called, yo, dude, what am I supposed to do?
I'm freaking out.
And now I'm just like, ah, let me just go for another pastel nato.
You know what I mean?
Like, I don't know.
Let me go for a workout.
And we're talking massive swings here, but it is what it is, guys.
My link, my link bar.
How is it going well?
I love that.
The Marine.
The Marine.
I was going to say, the founder of link is quite like
approachable like we should just get him on wow it's up five percent of that what a coin we should
get him on like he's the type of person i feel like that would come on fomal hour and jam with
us yeah um he was actually at the at the summit in the white house when we were there um so anyways
um there is uh there is that.
Let me bring John up.
Tyler, how do you want to run this?
Do you want to still run through your topics?
We get John on, then we chit-chat?
I can just give a couple quick headlines.
It was a lighter report because I know we want to talk to John.
I'll bring John on stage, but go ahead.
Jam with us.
For daily NFT and crypto analysis.
Tyler, T.O. FOMO, our calls to keep paying. crypto majors now mix bitcoin eats down about one percent soul actually uh green on this so we see a little bit of a rebound here
after the markets have opened in the u.s a lot of stable coin news
in the past 24 hours so the U.S. A lot of stablecoin news in the past 24 hours.
The state of Wyoming launched its Frontier Stable Token, FRNT. That's the first stablecoin
ever issued by a U.S. public entity. We had Goldman Sachs come out this morning and say
they think the market for stablecoins will be going to the trillions with a T.
An interesting IPO story. We talked about bullish. Bullish, the company now holds 1.15
billion in stablecoins after
receiving a large chunk of their IPO
funds via stablecoins.
I think they're the
first company to have done that. Perhaps
an interesting precedent to set
for crypto companies. A lot of those are
being held on Solana, by the way.
And also this morning, China
exploring a wand back stablecoin.
So there's four big stablecoin headlines there.
Let's see.
Anthony Scaramucci, he's going to tokenize two of his funds on ABAX.
David Bailey's DAT Nakamoto, they bought $680 million worth of Bitcoin
and an average price of $118.2.
So they're down on their buys here a bit.
Robinhood, good segue to our conversation.
They're teaming up with Kalshi to launch prediction markets for NFL and
college football games in that Robinhood app.
So that was a big one.
Other than that, it's pretty much it.
CyberKong's announced a new token.
They're switching out BananaKong.
So they're going to run it back, it looks like.
So pay attention to that one.
Yeah, those are the main headlines from the day could you imagine what would happen
if I would have just sold that cyber calling they sent me after posting
Bernie and I were laughing about this
like yo what if it like you list it
that's cool
one other quick note
Tom Lee's quant said
4075 to 4150
we bounced off 4075
speaking of Tom Lee just left Jackson Hole
on a United Career Airline
he's just like the rest of us
he didn't fly in private
this is our boy
this is the man saving our
goodbye Jackson Hole now time to move on This is our boy. This is the man saving our bags here.
You know, right there.
Goodbye, Jackson Hole.
Now time to move on up and to the right.
Great Saltwater.
Saltwater. Shout out to Kraken.
Actually, our short sponsors.
It seems like it was a really, really big conference.
And, you know, seems like he's going back home while he's replying to SPX 6900.
That's so funny.
I didn't even see that,
but a man of the people.
So that's a good roundup.
Love the China news,
by the way,
the first thing I saw today,
because last week there was another China thought that came out two weeks
Everybody used that in order to say we're going lower.
But I thought it was,
it was hilarious to see the stablecoin headline about this.
But anyways, we got John both on Twitter Spaces and on our kick stream right now.
John, what's up, man?
How are you doing today?
Hey, guys.
Thanks for having me on.
I'm really excited to be on here.
Hey, dude.
Thanks for coming.
I know you and I have been chatting a little bit,
especially because you're very, very, very vocal
about prediction markets on the timeline.
And boy, do I love prediction markets.
We like them a lot on the show.
And while chatting, I'm like,
oh, why don't you just come on the show?
We're trying to have some fun people come up
and did notice that you definitely drew a crowd.
You're getting a lot of engagement
about all this stuff. Definitely want to get into that,
a few different topics that Tyler also has prepared for us. But just quickly, I know you're
not, you're not docs, John, so you don't have to go too deep into it. But for the people who are
not too familiar with you, even myself, like we see a lot of your content on Timeline. You've been
a lot of numbers, like I said, Your articles are getting a lot of attention.
I read some of them.
They're really good.
And obviously, I'm a fan of your prediction market takes
that I tend to share a lot internally with my team.
But what's your background?
What do you do?
Who are you?
To the extent that you're comfortable sharing, of course,
on the spaces.
Yeah, of course.
So I'm originally from australia and i now like uh moved to the u.s for college um
i've been in crypto since like 2021 um you know worked at a couple different places like
um every everything from like did a bit of time my first first startup that I worked at was in a Perps exchange
and then worked at Immutable for a while,
which is the largest Australian crypto startup.
Then I dropped out of college to start my own company, actually.
And we kind of did a lending in liquidation bots
and sold that to TN from Pendle.
And last year, I was exploring social fi and meme coins a lot uh i was like building hacking and stuff in the space
um and sort of exploring that world um on solana and uh that kind of landed me on like being more
of an active trader as well um And so like over the past,
like this year I've kind of been just advising companies in the space sort of
like, you know,
all the launch pads on Meteora and like, you know,
recently also Ventral's, which is like a hyperliquid perps market for IPO
stocks and yeah, trading my own book as well. Um, deep in the trenches,
uh, and sort of have some builder experience as well.
All right. Love that. That's a, that's a good background. Uh, definitely love, uh,
definitely someone who's tapped into the space for y'all on the show today. Just a reminder,
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Tyler, I'm going to kick it to you.
I know you've got a few topics for us.
Yeah, John, you've been increasing the frequency of your prediction market posts.
As of late, it feels like you're really leaning in.
I guess what has piqued your interest?
Why this uptick now here in summer of 2025?
Yeah, I've always been really interested in prediction markets.
I think it's one of the net new things that has come out of our industry.
I was an active trader last year on prediction markets,
and even earlier this year as well.
I think this time around, what made me really excited last year on prediction markets and even earlier this year as well.
I think this time around, what made me really excited was just seeing that Polly market and Kaoshi and all the prediction markets out there,
they're basically at all-time highs again.
And that shows that it wasn't a fad, that there really is product market fit here,
that there could be a potential
and it feels like we're bidding resistance um at all-time highs and um it just makes sense that
we're going to break through and we're going to send it to Valhalla um and so you know prediction
markets are super interesting to me because um you know they're also like one of the few things
in crypto that have positive externalities um you know it it's like not just a zero sum game where you have this like
externality of spitting out the truth and spitting out sort of like the
wisdom of the crowd that is really powerful for media and sort of breaking
like narratives and showing like the people where the market's hand is.
I agree. I think it's one of the
more interesting aspects. And I don't really
think we've seen the media integration
Who's got some back end? Is it me?
Okay, we're good. Go on, Tyler.
I was just saying, I don't think
we've seen... We're at the first inning of media integration
with prediction markets.
Over at Decrypt, we're putting some prediction markets
into articles.
But I see a future where
CNBC, they're running stories
and they're going to have the prediction market
On screen during it.
And we're not there yet.
Basically what we're seeing with ESPN
and sports betting odds
and just full integration.
I guess, John, I'm curious,
anything that you could point to?
Like, are you surprised that volumes
are basically back to all-time highs?
And then like, what are you seeing
that's enabling them's enabling the big players
to be at all times post-election without that big anchor
to drive action?
Curious what you're seeing.
Yeah, I 100% agree on the media front, by the way.
I think both the media will sort of absorb prediction markets more
and prediction markets as a product might also like change to fit media more. So you're like more permissionless markets and stuff,
but we can get into that later. It's like a deep rabbit hole. In terms of like, am I surprised to
see prediction markets at all time highs again? I think that's definitely quite surprising. I don't
think I would have expected it to rebound so quickly
if you had asked me kind of like at the peak of the election cycle last year.
And so, yeah, the rebound is like quite astonishing to see.
And I think like the sort of ceiling for this is quite high.
high um like i think prediction markets you're coming from a like a meme coin background like
Like I think prediction markets, coming from like a meme coin background,
a guy who trades a guy who's interested in like uh sort of crypto as a as a social uh speculation
vehicle um but also as like a defy product as well i think like prediction markets kind of sits in
the middle um and it's like a lot more accessible to retail than meme coins because it's very understandable.
The payoff structure is a lot more legible to sort of like normies.
And then the topics that you're trading are actually relevant things,
not just sort of like a loose vibes-based indirect tie,
which meme coins are.
Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. I'm really interested in the DeFi aspect of this. Maybe we can talk about this for a few minutes.
To me, I think looking at the big markets out there, I think the presidential election market in
2028 is arguably the most interesting market out there for predictions right now.
And the reason I say that is this is where we can unlock some real
new primitives in prediction markets.
What I mean by that is
I think JD Vance is
the frontrunner for 2028.
He's at 28%. I can basically
get 4 to 1 on my money.
But there's a huge opportunity cost for me
to lock up capital effectively
for a little over 3 years
to do that.
Where this gets interesting is if I can tokenize my JDD Vance bet, plug it into a DeFi protocol.
Let's say I put 10K in and I can get 5K back in cash that I can just go do whatever I want with.
Do you think we're going to get there?
Do you think we'll get there by 2028?
Is this on your radar?
What are you thinking about in terms of prediction markets
and integration with DeFi?
Oh yeah, 100% we're going to get there.
And I've been chatting with some lending protocols already
to see if there's appetite for this kind of thing.
Just in terms of brainstorming, what's appetite for this kind of thing. Just in terms of like brainstorming,
what's next for prediction markets in terms of like DeFi like Legos.
I think that's definitely one of the most sort of interesting DeFi Legos
that we could build with prediction markets.
And you're totally right.
Like prediction markets, a lot of the more interesting markets
sometimes are long dated, you know, which which means that people have to sacrifice an opportunity cost of capital right now.
It's like slightly fixed with the 4% yield.
But, you know, what you mentioned is definitely a solution that will probably incentivize people to participate in long dated markets more if they're able
to free up that capital that they're putting in.
I have yet to see the perfect examples of that.
Like I know for us,
like on RN,
like it's something that we're looking into with like people like Eigen,
like we announced our partnership with Eigen,
Eigen cloud.
And obviously like there's some of the best when it comes to like staking,
restaking,
all that good stuff.
Because like as,
as traders in general, and you said you trench a lot, people don't really hold long-term positions.
It's never been something anyone's interested in, in this industry at least, very rarely.
And if I'm going to bet on the presidential next year for next year, Tyler, like you said, I don't really want to have my money stuck there. But the 4% thing that Polymarket came up with, I guess, somewhat solves this.
But even then, I feel like people want to do more on that.
Have you seen perfect examples yet of like you said, there's a big rabbit hole and we could go to lending on your position or being able to trade your position's perps, et cetera.
I saw you write an article, right?
The prediction market personal hyperliquid.
Like what do you think is the future of that in within this,
this industry?
Look, I think getting the lending side right is going to be hard.
It's almost like a bit like NFT lending in the sense that you are
tokenizing this like kind of illiquid position.
It's always a bit unique.
So maybe the model we see might look kind of like blend, which is like the below lending design, which kind of never really took off mainstream.
really like took off mainstream.
Always see like something that's more like a credit driven that's like new or
like a prime brokerage model.
So like similar to Gearbox where you,
you can like use the capital and like borrow it,
but never take it outside the system of like sort of a defined whitelisted set
of protocols.
Like that might be more safe.
And then on the prediction market perp side,
I think that one is also kind of like a similar situation
where so far the implementations of it
have been a bit janky.
Like DYDX and Drift are two protocols
that kind of did this.
Even FTX, I think, tried friction market perps. And they've all
basically been insolvent at some point in time
with those products. Managing the leverage
and liquidation engines for that are really hard. And I think
for most of them, they didn't really build
something fully verticalized for correction market perps.
They kind of just added it to their existing perp engine.
And so like you probably need something a lot more like white or like tailored towards correction markets.
Why is it hard?
It's like managing margin when you have like a binary outcome is like really hard because if you go from, if you wick from zero to one at like the sort of tail end of an expiry, you have some like information that, hey, Trump just got like, the Epstein case got out and Trump, you know, was in it and, you know, wicks Wix from zero to one or Kamala died or something.
Basically, these informational things can really, really push a market,
whereas with Bitcoin and stuff,
you wouldn't get full sent to zero in one candle.
So it's much harder to design for in terms of pubs.
It all makes sense.
It still feels doable, but we're just not there yet.
It's like the idea that it was the right idea too early.
It still feels to me, and I'm curious if either of you have thoughts on this,
is liquidity continues to be one of the single biggest issues in prediction markets.
It's like whales still can't come in and bet a million bucks
on every market they want to bet on
just because it'll move the line too much.
How does that eventually get solved?
Is it just growing the pie,
getting more people on the door?
That's what I still continue to struggle with.
I'm curious if you're having conversations around that
and what folks are thinking about.
I think it's like a combination
of bringing more people in,
but specifically like more liquidity providers.
And that might look like institutions.
I think Kaoshi has SIG
and a bunch of other Wall Street market makers
who actually make the books and make the books more liquid.
So I think they might be the most liquid in the space right now.
And then it could even look like changes in mechanism design.
So for long-tail markets, order books really don't make sense.
Maybe AMMs are the solution to that,
where you raise liquidity of pump fund style
and then try to like trade it on an AMM curve.
And yeah, I think like bringing more people in,
sort of educating them about like how to sort of like set limit orders and stuff
and how like order books might work differently
on prediction markets.
This could be more pro-trading terminals
because right now the major prediction market interfaces
are still very simple, I'd say.
If we're comparing to NFTs,
everything kind of looks like
urban c it's like big buttons simple interfaces um but we haven't had that like blur moment yet
where we've got really simple pricing and like liquidity data um which kind of does bring in
more like sophisticated uh liquidity providers and users. This is true.
As someone who's working in that,
obviously every day,
our only focus is growing myriad markets and stuff.
A lot of it is just...
I think RUI is the cleanest,
but obviously we're not as big as the Calcius supply markets yet.
But I think a lot of it is just very hard to use still
for the average consumer.
We don't have this prediction market product yet that's like the moonshot, Tyler.
To buy memes and stuff, you guys know very well, you can just buy moonshot and then you
Apple ID, iCloud, sorry, Apple Pay is what I meant.
And then you just buy the meme.
We don't have that yet or we haven't had that moment for prediction markets,
which is why
i think it's so early and why it's such an interesting product because i think i genuinely
believe that like nothing you guys talk about this a lot too but like how prediction markets
just much more interesting than meme coins for like the average participant like i think
if anything right man like i feel like they have they're better onboarding product you're muted but I think
they're better
onboarding
onboarding
that story
like people
just engage
sort of stuff a lot and
and because it's the esoteric bets you can't take it normal sports books you can do like really
interesting things i think grabs attention for people um i do think it's gonna be absolutely
massive i think you saw that today with robin hood right like robin hood how she the football
markets yeah like you can't think about doing a sports book anymore and not
think about this sort of stuff because it's like the the special markets that you used to have on
terms of the sports book that's now prediction markets you know like oh we're going to do the
election or we're going to do this special promotion on this, that like Christian marketing said is dominating that.
So I think,
I think it's going to continue to gain mindshare.
Christian thoughts on that.
It's funny.
Yesterday's guest,
the first comment on this tweet under zoomer fight is John Wang was right.
And ICO beast was on the show yesterday,
which is funny because John's on here today.
We've been covering this a lot.
Like every time there's this big news coming up,
because the partnership that Calciat with Robben
is absolutely massive.
And I think that's going to happen much more
with exchanges partnering with specific prediction markets
to offer this, but also the DraftKings of this world
I think will have to.
They have no choice.
What's your general thoughts on this?
How exchanges will need to partner with prediction markets?
How prediction markets, honestly,
I think they could take over that whole like sports betting industry,
which is already like mega.
I think you made it.
there you go.
A hundred percent agree.
And you know,
I love I see a beast.
I think like in,
in the future where at some point we're going to see every major financial
fintech gambling app have prediction markets embedded in them, similar to other good.
And not even like those, but media websites, you know, every, every podcast and like creators
going to monetize through, you know, rev sharing or creating prediction markets, because it's just like a much more efficient way to monetize through rev sharing or creating prediction markets because it's just
like a much more efficient way to monetize their attention and they don't have to like sort of
launch a meme coin that once that dumps and then they're kind of like fucked forever. They can
launch recurrent or like participate or shill meme card sort of new prediction markets frequently because these things are like
sort of temporary things and they're like very socially acceptable to trade on because
it's really just betting on like the truth. And I think, you know, one thing I've been thinking
about recently is these high volume or these high like eyeball events like the elections or like these like
spectacles they have draw a lot of eyes but how do you like get them to convert is like another
question um like how many dollars a volume or users activated from like these huge events
actually occur and i think um it's kind of like a snowball effect over time,
where you want to train people to have this muscle of like, you're associating the news
with prediction markets, but then actually taking that next legible step of trading on that,
and like talking to their friends about it. And it's really just like increasing the frequency
of these things, like making them more relevant
more embedded um i think prediction markets is like a form of soft core gambling as opposed
to like hardcore gambling right now at least um i wrote this like a blog piece on this um like
idea of soft core gambling and the base basic like premise of it is with meme coins, you're kind of looking for like a thousand X.
You're like going fully risked on.
Whereas like with prediction markets, it's more soft core.
It might not even be gambling, right?
In the sense that like you're like maybe doing lower ticket sizes, but like higher frequency things.
And you're like playing it to more so just like you see how it goes,
especially with like these mentioned markets where you're guessing what
someone might say.
And for Robin Hood specifically,
I think the retail audience there really loves it because it's almost like um a more interesting or um like more uh
understandable form of like zero dt zero dte options to me it's like the next evolution of
events trading um for retail like that i think it's coming i think the lines that maybe blurred
a little bit from soft core to hardcore with the introduction of the sports lines.
I think there's a difference between creating a point of view on an election or a geopolitical event versus betting on the next Eagles game.
Which is going to be effectively a coin flip.
But there's going to be something for everyone.
The creator's market is very interesting to me,
but I think you nailed it on the conversion point,
and we'll have to figure that out.
So I've been talking about,
oh, will Tom Lee's quant be right?
Will 4,075 be the bottom?
And if I ran a poll on my Twitter page,
I'd probably get 400 or 500 votes.
If I created a market that's a problem
10 of those people bet on it maybe that's it's a volume thing like we we think about that this is
exactly it's like it and we talked about liquidity and volume etc like a lot of these pressure
markets aren't getting any volume and like we we have a fee on our market so like people are not
like watch trading on our stuff so it's like i think like the the the volume still mirrored is
very real and we're about to hit 10 million dollars in volume total um and we only be launched like this
year which in my opinion is really good but like if let's say like at some point there's going to
be like a formal hours section on myriad which is gonna be like faro mandel and tyler's you know
predictions i'm curious how many people actually convert to that right and i don't think it's in
a crazy amount of people right like we're going to run some
tests soon you guys will see like over next month like we're going to work
with a lot of creators individuals etc
hopefully we can do some stuff with you John actually
but like it's like I'm curious to see how
many like Onsam could tweet about
a meme coin right and send it to 100 mil
he's done this 10 times over right
can Onsam tweet about a market
and even get a million dollars volume on it
even get a hundred thousand dollars volume on it i'm really curious about that guys
it's an interesting question how do we how do we find it how do we bet on this
how do we bet yeah market about the market
we need the the meta market on ansum
but i'm curious like i'm just curious how because that's going to be the aha moment The meta market on Answers. A little prediction market on the prediction market. I'm not a purple.
But I'm curious.
I'm just curious how, because that's going to be the aha moment.
That's going to be the big moment for that, right?
I'm just so curious about how this is going to move because it's funny.
People love to have an opinion, but they don't put it on chain, right?
You'll have the biggest bear say, yo, ETH is going to $3,400.
But we got a market for it, saying ETH $3,500 before $5,000.
But they're never going to take that.
And I think that a lot of it has to do with ego.
Like, I genuinely believe, because creators, you know, usually, like,
there's a lot of ego involved, blah, blah.
Us, not as much.
But a lot of people have this, like, clout in their head that they want to make a call, but a tweet can be deleted,
but an on-chain prediction can't be removed from the blockchain.
So I think the reputation part of it is what stops people.
I wonder if it's just like a muscle memory thing.
So like I'm at the point in my life where I can't really watch a sporting
event unless I bet on it.
At least some,
at least some amount.
I don't think we're there yet for prediction markets in world events.
Think how much better those debates were with the mentioned markets.
We're getting closer to that.
The dildo that's really made the WNBA games a lot more interesting.
That is a fact.
The incentives make sense for creators right so like i get x percent of fees for my market so then it's on me to drive action to it it's just
a matter of who's going to actually lean in are the markets good enough are there enough people
who want to bet on it yeah i guess we'll uh we'll see what that takes i just saw the time this is
like i could talk about push markets for the next few see what that takes i just saw the time this is like i could
talk about push markets for the next few hours actually uh but i just saw the time and we're
on the hour john any um i mean you know i do want to play a little prediction game with you so just
hang tight five minutes we'll go through some predictions on marriott if you're down and see
see what you got uh so far our guests have only made us money so i love that uh but do you have
like any any last things like for someone
who's trying to get into prediction markets like i see a lot of your people in your comments like
oh where do i start it's like dude like we've been screaming our myriads for like fucking
months now but like any like feel free like you know shell other prediction markets whatever like
we don't really care like where does someone start if they want to get more deeper into the
rabbit hole yeah yeah i think um if you're if you're if you want to be an influencer uh the
prediction market class of influencers is kind of just starting there's like the most famous guys
probably doma he only has 80 18k followers um and there are like a few other guys like 3 000 500
followers so it's such a small community and i think it's kind of going to be like the next big wave for like influences.
And we're going to see prediction market influences that talk about predictions and stuff
that are kind of bigger than meme coins and perps, in my opinion.
So get involved in these communities.
I can send like, I'll send a list or tweet a list of like who prediction markets people to follow like over the coming days.
I think in terms of like getting more involved from like a trading or using standpoint, I think like if you're a US person, Kaoshi is like really smooth experience.
smooth experience um you can kind of see like a lot of the especially if you're into sports like
you can see um all of the markets there or or even you know you have robin hood you can download that
and play around with it there um so that's like kind of the way i got started to use uh prussian
markets um and uh you know what tyler said i thought was really funny, by the way. I think the future generations that cooked,
like, you're going to be looking at anything with, like,
a subway surface on one side and then, like, you know,
a prediction market on the other side.
Dude, I'm cooked on the same.
That's so good.
I'm the same Tyler, by the way.
Don't worry.
You're not alone.
You're not alone.
I watch sports. I have to have, even if it's if it's 500 bucks like i just gotta have something on the
line uh maybe it's to make it worth the time so i love that yeah i would love that list i was
going to start a list also i was saying about last night but you know what i'll let you do the
work and i'll just follow your list uh and i'll uh i'll send you some names if i see some as well
john uh tyler you had a question for john in the the meantime, I'm going to pull up Myriad,
and let's ask him some predictions.
Yeah, just a quick fun question.
I'm curious.
Are there any specific markets that you like,
like any bets out there that are live right now?
On any prediction market.
Yeah, Paulie, Couchy.
Or any niches that you kind of focus on.
um yeah let's see i think like some of the pre-market um prediction markets are pretty
Yeah, let's see.
interesting to me just as someone who like wants to get exposure to something i think i have like
some level of edge when it comes to like um crypto protocols like before they launch um so for
example like if for like Pump ICO,
I feel like I kind of had like a pretty clear idea
that it would fill very quickly.
So if there was like
some prediction market on
how long it would take to fill
or stuff like that,
I think I would have
made the right guess.
Some people were saying
like hours or days,
but I was like,
no, this is definitely
filling within minutes.
And I think I love playing
mentions markets as well, kind of similar to what
you said, like watching something.
I was watching
different Trump speeches
and kind of running
some research on
what he said in the past in these similar types
of speeches. And Moki
kind of hit
the right mentions for some some but then also lost a
lot of money on some other things that he didn't mention so netted out only like five percent
positive um on like a lot of size but yeah you know i think uh these these markets are very
interesting to me um hopefully like we get free ip IPO markets as well because I've been reading a lot about that.
Barry, that would be really interesting.
I think you nailed it.
If you're patient in that game,
in the prediction market game,
you can just wait
and there are the bets that are just free money.
Like the pump ICO filling in the first hour, right?
Like that urgent money laying on the ground.
We give a lot of money away in our markets.
And that's the thing.
Also, there's free money in the up-and--coming markets the only problem is not a lot of liquidity and that's
obviously like um um feedback can get a lot about myriad it's like yo like please like farmer actually
d farmer was tweeting that he's like brother like we need more liquidity on the markets because i'm
trying to like swing more than like more than two three four five hundred bucks so as soon as you
solve that which we're solving for in the coming uh weeks i think it's gonna get more interesting
so i agree i love this pre-ipo, I think it's going to get more interesting.
So I agree.
I love this pre-IPO.
And I think there's a lot of money to make in markets, especially for,
you know, people like, oh, if your meme coins pivot to perps,
that was like the trend.
Like very, people got absolutely rinsed in perps,
especially in this like chop.
It's just such, yeah, it's just such a bad move.
And so I think like having, you know, prediction markets, a lot of people are better off probably either holding coins or just playing the prediction market or just going to move. And so I think like having, you know, prediction markets,
a lot of people are better off probably either holding coins or just playing the prediction market or just going to eat
and put lamb chop.
You know, speaking of which, the code today is Myriad.
M-Y-R-I-A-D.
M-Y-R-I-A-D is the code.
We're going to pick a win in a second.
Quickly, John, two more minutes.
One more minute.
Let's play a little prediction game.
Let's see what you got.
These markets are now
tough, right?
Yesterday, I think the ones
on Abstract,
they've been swinging like crazy.
Let's see.
Hold on. Which ones should we pick
for John here? Let's see.
The Gemini one could be good for John.
The Gemini. There's a Gemini IPO market. All right. Let's see. The Gemini one could be good for John. The Gemini.
There's a Gemini IPO market.
All right, there you go.
That's not a bad market. I ran out of cash on
abstract, but it's okay. We can get the
outside for other people to take
the market prediction.
So John, will Gemini announce
its IPO launch date by the end
of Q3? Yes
Yeah, so that spike there like yesterday
or a few days ago,
that was like from them filing their S1, right?
And it was like,
yeah, I remember seeing the announcement of that
because they were kind of negative profit.
I would lean on the side of yes here.
I just think that you know they're
we're in a bull market they want to they want to like not launch at the pico top they want to launch
early um and yeah they're kind of like underway um you know i'm not like an ipo expert yet on like
the exact timelines of things but but we got bullish, um,
yesterday,
Or two days ago.
yeah, we're,
we're kicking in.
So IPOs are back.
let's see,
Joe and I go.
I like the yes side on that too.
I totally,
agree with that one.
Let's see,
let's see a couple of markets and we'll pick a winner.
Not financial price.
Yeah, none of this is FA.
What about the price of eggs, John?
We talked about this at ICOBs yesterday.
The United States price of a dozen eggs above $350 in August.
Yes or no?
The yes is winning right now.
You're not an eggs expert? This is the of where i have the most edge bro like i know every chicken in the united states
so funny let's let's go with no you know let's be contrarian all right
more than more than a 2x there you go It is 110% trade here if the no hits.
Maybe something a little simpler.
Oh, I like this.
Dude, I kind of like this one because Bitcoin is bouncing at $114K.
What are we, in two days?
Bitcoin price above $116K on August 22nd, 2025 by the close.
Oh, I'm curious about everybody's thoughts on that one.
You know what?
I think we should just go with yes,
because if you're a bear, you don't make money.
I love that.
One on a 2% move is pretty nice. If you're a bear, you don't make money. I love that.
One on a 2% move is pretty nice.
Mando, what do you think of this market?
Dude, two days?
Two and a half days?
About two and a half days left of this market?
Two and a half to one?
Two percent move?
Now you're muted. I think this is going to be tough. Are you muted?
I think this is going to be tough.
I think we could go above 113, but I don't think we're going to be there.
Yeah, it's a tough part.
I feel like we're about to
I said we'd go to
and 4,000,
4,100. If we've done that,, 113 and 4,000, 4,100,
if we kind of done that, we've bounced.
I reckon we could have another retest of the lows here.
Just feels shaky out there, doesn't it?
People are a little bit worried about stuff.
That kind of says a lot.
You're betting on a good outcome at Jackson Hole on Friday.
And you're getting four to one. Yeah, essentially. That's what you're betting on a good outcome at Jackson Hole on Friday. Yes. And you're getting four to one.
Yeah, essentially.
That's what you're betting.
All right.
Well, look, this has been fun.
John, thank you so much for coming on the show today and talking prediction markets.
Definitely want to stay connected.
And hopefully we have you more when the time comes.
Appreciate you.
Thank you guys for having me on.
This was a blast.
All right, man.
Have a good one. All right. Well, this was a blast alright man see ya have a good one
alright well this was fun little pred market talk
we talk a lot about prediction markets like
Miriam we don't really get into them so
y'all should start getting bullish
let's pick a winner in the clip was Miriam we'll do a plinko
Mando good luck today
in 50 minutes right you're hosting
Wreck Radio with KBM
boy he's been on a tear on the timeline Vlog today in 50 minutes, right? You're hosting Rec Radio with KBM.
Boy, he's been on a tear on the timeline.
What's he been doing?
I don't know.
Did you just see his timeline?
He's like bear posting left and right, saying goodbye markets. It's over.
So you're going to have a good one today.
It's in 50 minutes, right?
Yeah, it is.
Sounds like KBM.
Said ETH is going 3,400.
Jesus. All right. All right. Sounds like KVM Said ETH is going 3,400 Jesus Alright
Got a female
Winner love that
OX Dystopi Girl if you're in the chat Let's go. Got a female winner? Love that.
OX dystopi girl.
If you're in the chat,
you don't have to be in the chat.
Don't worry for today because, I mean,
you probably are here,
but we're going to plinko this.
We're going to five balls of 100.
How's that, guys?
Oh, Mando, by the way,
we had the dirtiest lamb chop on Monday.
Like, it was not even funny.
The guy was like to the tracks
both times lost on the first square on easy mode.
It was dirty.
It was like, it was not nice.
So we do auto bet, 16 rows, five bets of 100 each.
Let me take a screenshot of our balance here and send it to some of our chat.
All right.
Well, OXD, Trophy Girl.
Slow speed. Let's make it slow.
Come on. Alright, you guys see the full screen, right?
Yeah. Let's go.
AutoBed 5X.
Volatility high. Okay.
Boom. Alright, let's go.
Come on. Let's rinse
Mando today. Come on. To the left. mando today come on to the left to the left
or to the right but not there not there not there oh no oh no
found horrendous well
mando wins again that was horrific We had to retire from Blanco. Yeah.
Oh, what's going on, man?
It's okay.
I guess we still just gave away $600 on the show.
So, yeah, I would love to see that.
We have three more winners for the week.
One tomorrow, two Friday, one of which is going to be a subscriber.
So, that was a great show, lads. And with that, we'll see you all tomorrow morning, 10 a.m. Eastern.
It's down the time for the episode of FOMO Hour on Rock Radio.
Let's go. Thank you. I