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FOMO HOUR: Market Meltdown
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 0:34:57Space Recording
Short Summary
In a turbulent market marked by significant declines, discussions reveal a potential rebound as global liquidity increases and speculative assets gain traction. Key insights include the impact of political statements on market confidence, the resilience of crypto amidst volatility, and emerging trends in meme coins and stablecoin adaptations.
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show here in just a minute or two.
We're going to get our speakers up on stage.
While we do that, a few shout outs.
Oxy, Seaboard, Erking, GMGM, Meg, Imlo, B Capital, GMGM, Harry Krishna.
Who else we got?
Ryan, Inoa, Nighthawk, GMGM folks.
All right, we got FOMO hour up here.
We got Myriad up here. I think Simmons, whenever. All right, we got FOMO hour up here. We got Myriad up here.
I think, Sims, whenever you're ready.
Let's kick it. Thank you. Good morning.
Good morning, everyone.
GM, GM, and welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour.
Today, today is Monday, April 7th, 2025.
Folks, we thought it might be Black Monday.
We had Black Thursday and Black Friday and then Black Sunday night.
It was setting us up for a rough start to the week.
Global markets crashing.
U.S. equities hitting bear market territory.
Crypto was falling.
But now Trump's telling everyone, don't be panicking.
And markets are starting to respond. The question is, can we trust it or don't be panicking. And markets are starting to respond.
The question is, can we trust him or should we be panicking?
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
No, Farouk, he is traveling today, but we've got Mando in the house.
Mando, Jim, how are you holding up?
I'm holding up okay.
Yeah, I'm holding up okay.
I've actually traded pretty well the last few days.
So I've been relatively happy with how I did it.
Nice.
But, yeah, luckily we started bouncing as soon as the show went live.
Otherwise, it was looking to be a very stressed opening day of the week for us.
We can get into all that, but yeah.
We will.
The tone of the show, quite different,
starting at 10 a.m. versus how did we start at 9.30.
Yes, very different.
You were tuning into a very different episode of FOMO Hour.
Folks, it is going to be a tighter show here this morning,
but we are going to talk everything about these markets. Stocks are falling Sunday night. It looks like they're starting to rebound despite Asia markets having, I think, one of their worst days of all time.
We had folks crashing out on the timeline, including Bill Ackman, J.P. Morgan raising their recession odds.
Stanley Druckenmiller actually coming out and defending tariffs to a degree.
And then Trump has started to respond more and more here yesterday and now
this morning. So we're going to talk about that. Crypto's potential relative strength.
Does anything look like a buy? Or are we still selling all of the pumps and more?
So that's what we're going to talk about on today's show. Before we dive in,
shout out to our partners starting with Galaxis. Galaxis is a Web3 platform empowering creators
and brands to build
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trusted by icons like Donald Trump, Steve Aoki, Mike Tyson, and the NBA,
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So if you want to learn more, follow at Wallet Connect on X and Telegram to stay ahead of what's next.
We love our partners as always.
Now, Mando, if you're ready, let's get right into it.
Blue is the man, macro daddy of the man. GM everyone
so yeah we had a pretty wild
weekend to be honest crypto had been outperforming
for a little bit obviously on
Friday it was and then
what you started
to see on Friday was that everyone was like,
oh, you know, we've had this good correlation to gold.
Even gold started to sell off.
So there was kind of this, oh, God, everything's about to nuke
sort of market here.
And crypto seemingly got caught up in that as well.
So you saw gold go down to 3K from from where was it about 3100 3200 nearly um and you
saw global stock there was just i think there was an expectation on friday that maybe deals would
get done over the weekend you know maybe there'd be a deal done with the uk with canada with japan
like maybe maybe they'd be like at the end of the tunnel for these sort of deals. And it just didn't seem to be the case.
In fact, Trump's comment made some comments last night,
which is like Europe owes the U.S. reparations for previous trade deficits.
And it felt like they were maybe even drifting apart.
This morning, you've seen a slight softening from certain points.
So you saw Europe said, hey, we're actually going to delay our retaliatory tariffs until later this month.
And then they said, leave the door open maybe for a deal to be done.
You saw that Japan's prime minister said they've had a call with the US,
and maybe that could lead to a deal.
We saw that, yeah, just a general slight softening,
or at least indication that there could still be a route open for deals.
Not really from Trump, but from other people, let's say.
And some indications from people in the administration that countries are reaching out.
We had the figure of 50 countries had reached out for deals.
And I think everyone just felt slightly better about the market after that.
This morning we were selling off and then there was a headline first thing,
which was a little bit of a bounce, which is probably the bottom looking back at it,
which is the Fed is holding a meeting today.
That is actually a fairly standard meeting for them.
So I wouldn't read too much into it,
although they have done special meetings like that around COVID
and also around the SV you know two years ago it doesn't look like that's what's happening today
but undeniably i'm sure they'll be talking about uh what's going on in the stock market
um and broadly this was a up until now like rest of world stocks have broadly outperformed
us stocks today was the kind of the day that that changed
so chinese stocks closed down 13 percent um in hong kong dax um was down 10 percent various
different european stock indexes were down five to ten percent it was it was definitely a blood
bath kind of across the board um and i think people were definitely feeling it um definitely
feeling it this morning and wondering how it's going to get fixed.
You did see,
now what I've been saying is that the response to this has to be stimulus.
And I think that's what we're going to see.
I think we're going to see already China said,
we're going to do some sort of stimulus,
extra stimulus package this morning.
And so this idea that global liquidity will go higher feels likely to
me um and we're going to see money printing to kind of help deal with the uh help deal with the
issues so yeah i think i think i'm not feeling as bad about stuff this morning at least i can see
we can have a relief rally i don't think i don't think we're out of the woods by any means like trump
trump is still pointing to the idea that you know there should be no trade deficits between
countries and i feel like his base is also kind of like they're kind of behind him on this like
weirdly this is the story has kind of changed to lowering tariffs to like this being a way to like redistribute wealth.
And it actually feels like that's like empowering the Trump base.
So I don't necessarily think that he, I've been thinking a lot about why this is happening.
Yeah.
And for me, it feels as though there's been like a kind of implicit decision that one of the only ways to improve income inequality in the U.S. is to try and basically cut trade deficits with external countries rather than tax-rich.
And that's kind of where we're at.
Yeah, I think that's fairly spot on.
I mean, a similar thought.
I've spent most of the weekend thinking
about this and like what are the scenarios from here and i don't think there's really any scenario
where trump just like totally backs down and reverses course i think perhaps the optimistic
outcome is he truly was using these absurd numbers as negotiation tactic and tries to,
you know,
when,
when the negotiations here and get down to 10%,
20% more,
somewhat more reasonable level,
it's still going to have an impact.
but I mean,
I think even that's in question,
right?
Like,
I'm not sure if he wants to do that.
I've been,
I've been debating this a little bit,
like, and I use Vietnam
because it's a good example,
but, like,
the general thesis seems to be that, like,
let's say there's a group of people that live in the countryside
and a group of people that live in a big mega city
like New York, right?
the basis of this is that
do you think there should be zero trade balance
between those two people?
It seems natural that the country would import
more than exports back to the countryside,
let's say, or where there's cheaper labor.
Now, how this is working is basically saying
there should be no trade deficit between the two of them.
If there is,
we're going to tax you.
And that puts a country like Vietnam,
like it can't,
it can't import enough to,
to fix that sort of an issue.
But,
and there seems to be like expectation that actually we kind of want to do
some of the stuff that's going on in the countryside in the big mega city
like New York,
like,
Hey,
actually we want to do that too
um and i think that's that's kind of what's going on here it's more like they want to actually
redistribute the wealth inside the u.s a little bit more and that is quite a popular thing with
trump with trump space and with a lot of people um and at other times that's tried to happen
it's like we're gonna to basically tax the wealthy.
And that is seen as kind of like a kind of at odds with the American dream, I would say, or like seen as like, you know, it goes against incentives.
But this way, basically, you just tax anyone who has a trade deficit with the U.S.
Everyone doesn't necessarily do better in that scenario.
Everyone can actually do a little bit worse in that scenario,
but the US is the strongest economy by far,
best demographics, biggest military,
easily has the most firepower to deal with this.
So it's kind of one of these worlds where I think the bet here
is that the US will do better than every other country if this happens.
Like, I would say global wealth may come down in that world, but you also get a situation where the U.S. redistributes its wealth in a certain way.
And I think that's kind of what mag is changing it's well not really
changing but that like they're fine with that so i don't think trump's backing down on this i think
this is kind of like i think he kind of wants this yeah yeah i mean he's he said as much i mean he
he came out and said our intention was not to crash markets, but also that sometimes you got to take medicine.
And like they've been saying,
there could be some pain.
I've had,
I mean,
people have been trying to digest this all over the weekend.
Some are saying like,
at what point would we see civil unrest perhaps in the U S.
But I think you kind of nailed it.
I don't know that we are very close to that scenario at all because the,
the people most disproportionately impacted are the wealthiest, right?
And they're not going to be the ones who take to the streets.
And I don't think most, most people are, are, are, they're not impacted yet.
I think it's still to be seen. Give me one quick second.
You guys have to stop right now.
But.
Yeah, I think that's basically what's going on.
I don't think, I think he might win people over this way.
It's definitely an America first policy.
And it does affect multinational corporations quite badly. But again, like a lot of people in the US don't affect multinational corporations quite badly but again like
a lot of people in the US don't like multinational corporations um so and there's all other attempts
to kind of solve income inequality are generally seen as they they just they're not as popular. It's a weird notion, but taxing the rich is far less popular
than taxing foreign countries.
And even though the tax on foreign countries can reduce
everyone's economic wealth, including the U.S., more,
the concept is that that is one of the best ways potentially to reduce
income inequality in the U S. Um, and I see it, you know,
like I see it from more right-wing commentators that like,
this is the narrative suddenly. It's like, Hey,
we've actually fixed income inequality more than like the left has for like 50
years here. Right.
and that's something that is actually a little bit popular. So I kind of feel as though this can continue and I don't think he's in a
rush to make deals.
Yeah.
I think that is fair.
But what does it mean for Bitcoin and crypto?
I think it's as I've said before,
I think this is going to lead to massive stimulus,
which is already happening and i think that there's potentially also an erosion of dollar power in this world or at least
like what all fiat currency power i feel can be slightly diminished here like if free trade
is diminished in this world then then you can imagine that yeah like
few people need dollars few people want to borrow in dollars fewer people want to do that in in
various different countries if that gets diminished so i'm um yeah i i think i think i think crypto
can still do well i really do i was surprised that they traded badly this weekend but you have
to remember it's the most risk on asset that is 24 seven.
So people go in and they're like,
need to short it on a,
on a weekend,
you know,
this is,
sorry.
I literally exclaimed when I,
when I went back to the crypto board folks,
because this is now quite the rebound.
Bitcoin back over 80 K.
It was,
it went sub 76 on the market open just 45 minutes ago.
And now like the weekly numbers,
we just had one of the worst three-day stretches.
Now, of course, stocks are rebounding.
The S&P flips green as well.
But in U.S. equity history,
and Bitcoin's down 3.5% on the week.
I think that's pretty,
that's a pretty strong signal.
And Saylor didn't buy.
He came out and said it.
What a great week for Saylor not to have bought.
I guess perhaps for our confidence.
Because I think there was,
maybe we'll find out if GameStop was the one buying Friday.
I think Friday was where it really felt like
there was a strong bid
when it was Friday
afternoon and equities kept falling off a cliff
and then Bitcoin was holding that 83k level.
And I think a lot of
folks thought it was either strategy
or GameStop.
But... I just don't think
we're like... I would be very...
Don't confuse
volatility with we're so back or it's so over. I think we're just, I would be very, don't confuse volatility with we're so back or it's so over.
I think we're just in a period of very heightened, like even now,
you might be like, oh my God, we're going, we're so back.
I just be aware that this is a market that is insanely volatile.
Like I said it to Ovi before we went live.
I was like, it just feels like we're about to bounce.
It's because like, it's not that any good news
had really come out it's not like Trump suddenly changed his opinion
it's just like everyone just feels like they're too short
so knowing that world like there's extremes of positions
right now and you can gap up
10% and there'd be no news
literally nothing so
I feel like that's also the world we're in so
i uh i think bitcoin can continue to outperform global stocks everything here but um it had a
bad weekend and it sometimes does do you remember like when all the middle eastern wars were
happening or like flare-ups were happening it was just like why is bitcoin the thing
there was a little bit of that this weekend
where it was just like, right,
we're just going to pummel Bitcoin
into the US stock market open
because everyone's freaking out.
And that, but this is a good sign.
The fact that it held that 76K level,
which it's hit a few times again,
is a good sign. Definitely a good sign.
I'm curious if you
so I've seen more and more of the
bear takes that we would effectively
erase the entire
Trump pump on Bitcoin basically
taking us back to like 66k.
Do you have
any targets
Bitcoin?
Any lower targets that you think are possible or levels that you feel seem safer?
I'm curious if that's how you're looking at it.
Feels like it's a really good sign that it hit that level again, 76K.
I think there'll be a lot of buy walls now that's 76K level.
of buy walls now that 76k level yeah a lot of them um i don't think we're out of uh
Yeah.
A lot of them.
i don't think we're out of the woods though like this feels like a a relief rally rather than like
oh something's gonna come and save us you know what i mean i think a lot of people are just so
used to the covid situation where it's just like, we're going to turn on the taps, something fundamentally changed.
We're going to save everyone. No one's coming to save this market here.
It doesn't feel like it.
We've just spoken about how Trump's incentives are maybe even to continue
this. And we've just spoken about,
and the fed basically amount on Friday and said, we're not going to help.
So your best bet here,
in my opinion,
is the Chinese central bank,
potentially Japanese central bank,
potentially European central bank,
British,
you know,
the,
yeah,
the British central bank,
and potentially then we get a... Yeah, we get money printing from them
or money printing by another name.
It doesn't feel like the Fed wants to step in here.
And that has been something that has happened since 2008.
And it hasn't...
It doesn't look...
It looks like things are going to have to get a lot worse.
And the thing that's interesting,
a lot of people have been talking about the fact that,
oh, he wants to get the 10-year lower.
This is a day where the 10-year is higher.
It's gone back to 4.1%.
Yeah.
You know, this is going to lead to inflation.
It's not easy for the Fed to come and just cut rates.
Like, Trump keeps on talking about that,
but, like, it's not easy. Jerome Powell's probably sitting there going, like, I'm going to come and just cut rates. Trump keeps on talking about that, but it's not easy.
Jerome Powell
is probably sitting there going, I'm going to wait and see.
I don't want to cut rates if inflation
is going to continue
higher.
I'd just be wary of thinking
the Fed is going to save you. I think you've got to
hope weirdly that you've basically
seen money printing coming out of other countries.
I've seen totally two different schools of thought.
Some are saying that a rate hike is even on the cards for 2025.
And then you've got this Polymarket rate cut market has five cuts at 15% chance.
Now, let's see, four cuts is up to 20%, three cuts at 20%. So folks, I think that's in
line with other markets as well, that what four to five are starting to get priced in over the
weekend, I thought I saw. But that's going to continue to be very volatile. I mean, clearly
prices are incredibly volatile live as we're speaking. we were over 80k now we're back at 78.6 uh so we're just bouncing all over the board i am curious you
said you had a good weekend trading like is any are you buying are you just scalping i know ov
came out and shared that he effectively sold an autoglyph and bought ai16z. So he's buying some blood.
I bought Fartcoin on Friday,
which has probably been my best trade for the weekend.
And then I
have just traded around some of the L1s
and timed
some of these moves relatively well
getting in and out.
So I've been
definitely more day trading
because the swings have been insane.
But the gap down from Sunday,
I largely avoided.
And then I bought just before we went live
and I just told you to OSF,
I was like, I think we're going to bounce here.
I bought a bunch of things.
I've traded well the last few days for sure.
It's probably been one of my best trading periods.
Thanks.
The last three months.
You love to hear it.
I feel like I've been talking about this maybe too much,
but this Fartcoin strength is just like insane to see.
We just,
we're having global market meltdowns and limit order.
Circuit breakers are being hit.
Yeah, it's good that it's returned
to the common, like,
Fintwit, right?
It's definitely being spoken
about on Fintwit again a lot more,
which I think is just interesting.
Because it was a period where it was like, oh, it's over.
But now, like, it's like, oh my god,
Fartcoin is the one thing outperforming the S&P 500.
And that's a great story again.
Yeah, these things die not from FUD,
but in silence.
You want the attention factor.
And I mean, now the mindshare is off the charts.
Cookie's still measuring this.
And they still have F Bartcoin in the AI bucket
for what that's worth.
It's 30%
of the mindshower.
Meems in general
held up okay here,
in my opinion.
SPX as well had a decent period
here. He's back at
520 or 500-ish.
Those two in particular have held up very well.
So is there,
I was thinking of this a little bit over the weekend.
Like,
is this a sign of like financial nihilism returning to a degree?
Like,
like markets are all fucked.
There's nothing I can do about it.
I'm just going to go back to the...
If I can't buy what is considered value assets because they're all
going down 5% to 8% per day,
strong stocks are doing the same, why not just fire it into memes?
I don't know. That's just a thought that was crossing
my head as I tried to wrap my head
around why these memes
are outperforming and these are the top
two movers of the entire
top 100 crypto tokens right now as far
coin SBX
so it's pretty undeniable
that's where the strength is
yeah I don't really know
like it feels. It feels like those two in particular are just going to be the ones,
at least in the broader meme coin space.
Those two have been chosen as the ones that
people want to own on days like today.
I would tend to agree.
The question is, does that mean
they're going to displace? Are they going to displace
other traditional memes, or
are they just the new
additions, I think, is
one of the questions here.
Where's Mog?
Mog's green today.
Mog is getting destroyed.
Yeah.
It was 120 million.
Wow.
Yeah.
Mog's been destroyed.
Like honestly,
annihilated.
Perhaps there,
there is a changing of the guard to a degree here.
I think the other chart that's been absolutely destroyed is ETH Bitcoin.
I don't know if you've been seeing this,
but this morning it broke 0.02.
It was at 0.019.
It was 52 ETH for one Bitcoin.
And where is the bottom?
Like, are we going to see 75 to one, 100 to one?
Are there scenarios where that happens?
It's just 52 seemed like a far fetched number.
On January 1st, it was 27 to one.
And now it's 52 to one.
And now it's 52 to 1.
Try to pull this up.
I'm trying to pull this up.
We're just kind of running out of words to talk about this
at this point in time.
Yeah.
Ether is dead.
It's over.
I'm sorry, guys.
I'm not talking about it.
The amount of airtime that it gets on different shows
for this it's um it's just painful like i i talk about this over all the time but like it's um
yeah it's just it's just not been a good hold and and it's under it's even underperforming today right underperforming today so sad very sad
it's a tough one it's a tough for my beloved punks bitcoin ratio uh which got whacked in this
eth down move the punk floor held even but with eth getting crushed punks back down to 63k uh so now 20 below bitcoin more actually right now um so
not exactly what we uh what we wanted to see here i'll go around the horn i think that that's a
really good summary on the market manual thank you for that um it was a quiet weekend i think
a couple headlines that jumped out one tether basically said, if the U S is not going to embrace USDT,
they're going to launch a U S friendly stable coin.
so I think that's perhaps various for circle.
And then circle also is reportedly,
I think this is more tied to some rumors.
It hasn't been like they haven't come out and said this,
but now they're thinking about delaying their IPO because of all the,
effectively because of the FUD from those Coinbase fees and perhaps trying to
get better deals lined up to make some of those financials look better.
So those are a couple.
Yeah.
I think,
I think it's a tough time,
right?
You have a period where they're trying to crash the 10 year,
which is basically their business model.
And you have crypto in general not feeling so great.
They probably just don't think they can get that valuation right now.
I don't think, if you're in circle, I just don't really know why you're trying so desperately to IPO.
Like, you've got this great business,
but maybe they desperately need to get out of the stock.
I don't know.
It kind of feels like,
do you see Tether worrying about IPO-ing?
Like $4 billion a year?
In fact, the opposite.
Yeah, exactly.
Do you really desperately need to sell equity in your company?
Just click the coupon every single year.
It's a dream.
I don't feel sorry for circle executives that missed their IPO window.
If you needed that, then you need to run your business differently.
I think that's a fun angle.
It's the question of why do they do this? Is it because they see their business model falling apart as the Trump
administration tries to bring the 10 year down,
which we'll see if,
if that's actually going to pan out for them.
I guess any,
any surprises this morning before we wrap things up,
you know,
it seemed like everything was crashing.
We're rebounding.
It felt like interest rates spiking caught people off guard this morning.
So I guess anything that surprised you or any final thoughts as we go into this week?
Just interest rates.
Just pay attention to Bitcoin.
Pay attention to Bitcoin.
I think that's the main thing.
Like,
Bitcoin to me,
I think it's gonna,
it's probably gonna have another retest above ADK.
here.
I'm,
I'm still not of the view that something like Solana is necessarily going to be like a screaming buy
for the next couple of weeks.
Like I still think that like Bitcoin dominance is up again today.
So it's approaching 64%.
I just feel like that's an up only chart,
whatever happens for the next few weeks.
Yeah, I think that's fair.
I did hear Choose Rich Nick on the Nifty Show this morning
talking about how he feels like Solana is actually an interesting buy
with Bitcoin here just because he felt like the downside is somewhat capped,
perhaps in the 20% range.
If you think 80 is a strong floor for Solana,
you can buy it at 100.
Decent risk- risk reward there.
Just because your chance to have it scout back to one 40,
I mean,
so was one 40 a week and a half ago.
Right.
So you have a chance to catch a bigger move than Bitcoin,
but it's at the same time,
like I'm not personally racing to buy Solana.
Yeah.
I think it's more like a,
this isn't just a Solana thing.
This is like an L1 thing.
It's like,
it feels as though people are leaving crypto right now.
And those stories can take a long time to come back.
Right.
So, and it's not that I don't think solana will dominate when they do it's just more like it's the same reason
my eth is like not trading that well there's so much block space right so you've got to hope that
like your your chain stays relevant in a quiet period and solana it feels as though a lot of the activity on there
was more left curve as well
so I don't know, I really don't know
I think that's fair and also I think
watching ETH
not have a successful
comeback cycle here I think is also
perhaps hurt
upside of Solana rightfully or wrongfully
is people saying like
this whole next man up,
like there's always going to be a next hot chain and maybe you aren't meant to
hold these beyond their initial, you know, big cycles.
So that's a real narrative out there.
So I think that's one that, you know, we'll continue to watch,
but we'll see. Is it going to be turnaround Monday folks?
I don't know,
but we're starting to see signs of it.
so it looks like,
or now we're back.
The white house just denied that they are delaying tariffs.
Okay.
There was a,
they might be delaying tariffs,
but they just denied it.
So we're back down again.
Yeah.
We're turning around the other way.
Uh, so expect more piercing volatility. I think it is the, but they just denied it. So we're back down again. Yeah, we're turning around the other way.
So expect more piercing volatility, I think is the takeaway.
But folks, quicker show here on Monday.
We will be back with a longer show tomorrow.
That is it.
That's going to be our show.
I want to thank our listeners.
I want to thank our partners as always.
I want to thank Mando.
We'll be back tomorrow, 10 a.m. Eastern.
Until then, go make it a great day.
Goodbye.
