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FOMO HOUR: Market Report, BTC Rally and Swift onchain
Recorded: Sept. 30, 2025 Duration: 1:00:09Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, key topics included Swift's partnership with ConsenSys for blockchain payments, Andre Cronje's substantial fundraising for Flying Tulip, and Meteora's innovative TGE model. The conversation also touched on Robinhood's impressive stock growth and the SEC's push towards blockchain integration in stock trading, highlighting a trend of increasing adoption and innovation in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show in just a minute.
in just a minute.
A few shout-outs here.
A few shout-outs here.
Fungi, GM Mobius, Harry Krishna,
Levin, GM, GM Rico,
Mr. B, Spacebar, GM.
Who else we got?
Steve.
All right, Steve.
Lil' Dill, Googly, GM, GM.
Thank you for joining us.
All right, Charlie, whenever you're ready.
Let's kick it. Thank you. GM everyone and welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour.
Today is Tuesday, September 30th, 2025.
Folks, it is the last day of September.
Tomorrow, October begins.
Many are wondering, is it October or will it be Uptober?
And there are signs pointing to yes, in uptober is coming we're gonna
get into it on today's show still no faroak no mando but we got logan in the house playoffs are
live logan jim how you doing hey good morning tyler yeah i'm doing well feeling a little excited
uh rocking the cubby stat i'm not uh i'm i guess i'm cautiously optimistic about our chances here today,
and I guess for this first series.
Playoff baseball is fantastic, though.
So can't complain either way.
Excited to watch all the games.
It really is, and the weather is going to be seasonably warm
for those Cubs playoffs.
We're mid-70s, upper-70s, 80s.
So I think cautiously optimistic is the correct viewpoint
when it comes to any Chicago sports.
But Cubs playoffs, certainly.
So we will be pulling for them here in this house as well.
Well, folks, what are we talking about on today's show?
We do have a lot to talk about.
We'll get into the market report.
The SEC wants stocks trading on chain.
Swift partnering with ConsenSys,
arguably the biggest news that no one's really talking about.
Andre Cronje is back, the billion-dollar raise for Flying Tulip.
Meteora announced their TGE in a unique airdrop mechanism.
We've got Polymarket launching mentions markets for NFL.
That was a big one.
Hypers are falling.
Punk Strategy gets 18.
And then if we've got some time to end the show, I want to catch up with Logan on some news from last week For NFL, that was a big one. Hypers are falling. Punk strategy gets 18.
And then if we've got some time to end the show,
I want to catch up with Logan on some news from last week that folks may have missed.
And yeah, that's what we're going to get into.
So with that, why don't we just get into the market report?
Charlie, let's hit the intro. There we go. Third time is the charm
all right i do have the screen share up for those who are in the twitter stream or the kick stream
we are live on kick as always We're also streaming live to X.
And of course, the Spaces, folks, I'll take a look at the crypto board here.
Looks like we are selling off a bit. We had an early morning rally.
Bitcoin, basically flat on the day, 113K. It did touch a bit over 114K yesterday.
ETH down a percent, 41.40. Solana down 1%, 207. I think it hit 214 or so as well.
So we had a deeper Monday rally. It did sell off a bit overnight. Now it looks like perhaps a bit
of chop into the end of the month. Taking a look at stocks, stocks slightly red today as well.
They were green yesterday. I think the big news on the macro front is it does look like a U.S.
government shutdown is looming.
Stocks pairing gains a bit because of that,
not any kind of a big sell-off by any means.
So I know there hasn't been a whole lot of macro news this week,
so I think the government shutdown catching a lot of it.
I don't know that it's going to be a huge market impact,
assuming it lasts a week.
If it drags out for a significant period of time, I think that perhaps changes the calculus on that.
But clearly, that is the top story.
It seems like the shutdown is happening.
Polymarket has the odds, 85% shutdown in 2025, 80% shutdown by tomorrow.
So folks think it will happen today very, very clearly.
That was the major macro news for the most part that played out overnight.
Some impacts.
It looks like airlines perhaps impacted a bit.
Some data out of China, slightly positive.
It looked like Chicago PMI was a slight miss this morning here in the U.S.,
but again, not a whole lot to report.
On the stocks front, though, there was one stock that is just going straight to the moon,
and that is Robinhood.
I'm not sure if folks have seen this.
Hoodstock, 141.
Oh, my.
Up 258% on the year.
Nine months into the year, this thing's at 140 and up 250%.
Wild.
Just wild action for a hood.
Logie, I'm curious.
You have some hood shares.
What is the hood thesis and what is the target for this thing?
It's turning on $125 billion.
Oh, geez.
I'm not the guy to ask about targets, but the thesis from my perspective,
I think my average, full disclosure,
yeah, I do own some good stock. I think my average is in like the 35 to 40 range. And my thesis was largely around Robinhood's perceived focus on wishing to become kind of like this everything
app, right? Like you can recall perhaps Elon's talk about X
wanting to become this everything app.
It feels like Robinhood is actually,
at least from a financial perspective,
has actually gone a long way to accomplishing that, right?
It's got all the stock stuff, all the crypto stuff.
Now the prediction market, you know,
the event contract stuff as well.
I mean, there's just, if you want to,
not just gamble, right?
But if you want to invest
and you want to participate in the financial markets,
there's really, as a younger person
who's on my phone quite a bit,
like there's no easier way,
is there than utilizing Robinhood?
Not in my opinion.
So that was kind of the thesis.
It was that simple for me.
And I've been, you know, buying weekly,
just small bits weekly, but it's added up over time, of course, when you get a big surge over the course of the thesis. It was that simple for me. I've been buying weekly, just small bits weekly,
but it's added up over time, of course, when you get a big surge over the course of the year.
It's crushing.
It seems like prediction markets have been a fairly big driver of the recent price action.
I think so.
Yeah.
I was trying to look for one of the major investment banks had raised their target by like $20 a share,
I think from $130 to $150, or maybe it was $120 to $140.
We're already there.
But due to what prediction markets would add to their bottom line,
and they are clearly growing substantially here and accelerating,
is the only way to really look at this right now and comment
on the growth. So hood looks good and so do prediction markets. I think we'll get the final
September data in today. I don't know that I have the most recent. I'll try to see what I can get,
but these volumes just broadly are just going straight up and to the right.
I think I saw something that Koushi had a billion dollar week last week. That's not
reflecting in this dashboard. So this is the week ending September 22nd. Looks like overall
1.3 million, a new high. And it feels like we're going to pass those election highs.
It's just a matter of time. Isn't it so funny that at this point last year,
we were talking about whether or not prediction markets could outlast the election, right?
And now the consensus has completely flipped to prediction markets are here
and only up and to the right forever and ever and ever.
Forever.
Yeah, forever.
And it's hard to disagree.
It's funny.
I don't want to steal too much away from talking about the mentions markets
or anything like that.
But there really is an opportunity here for the prediction markets.
They can more or less spin up markets about literally anything ever, right?
ever, right? So long as there's clear rules and resolution data available. And that's going to
So long as there's clear rules and resolution data available.
cater to just like this absurdly large demographic of users. Like the total addressable market for
prediction market user is every single person on the planet, more or less, right? Because you can
create a market about the thing that they're interested in. It doesn't mean people will use it,
or that it's the best thing to financialize and gamble on. In fact, in. Um, it doesn't mean people will use it or that it's the best thing to
financialize and gamble on. Um, in fact, in many cases, probably not the case, but it's going to
be an option for folks. Um, you know, people that wouldn't have participated in any sort of
financial market previously may have an option to do so given these off the wall niche markets
that are being spun up everywhere. I'm trying to pull up.
Right now,
but I had the post from Tyrell.
We had his business partner kicks on against the odds a couple of weeks back.
They're building a parlay tool for prediction markets,
and he's just a great content analyst for prediction markets overall.
He broke the news yesterday, at least how it got to my feed,
probably getting into football mentioned markets.
Again, a mentioned market is quite literally what will the announcers
or a specific person say during an event.
So now they've got this for NFL games.
Some of the ones that you would expect onside kick,
taunting concussion,
Hail Mary.
Let's take a look at what did in fact hit not a ton of action,
$10,000 in volume.
So take it with a grain of salt.
This is still very,
very early here.
It looks like onside kick did hit concussion,
hit fumble,
hit face mask safety. It's wild what are the you might scroll
into the rules here is this based on what the espn broadcasts and does it have to come from like a
particular it doesn't have to come from it like it could be the color guy or the play-by-play it
doesn't matter right mentions by sideline reporters rules rules analysts. So literally anybody. Okay. If either a play-by-play announcer or a color commentator during its official broadcast.
So it says sideline reporters, studio hosts, rules analysts do not count.
Okay, that's interesting.
That's a nice wrinkle to know about.
Yeah.
Nevertheless, I mean, this is, you know, you know how big Super Bowl props are, right?
Like these are the types of things that you would see perhaps on a sports book previously you would have only seen these
on a sports book for the super bowl you know when things get crazy and everybody's gambling on them
and now they are uh an option for every single game i i expect these to get bigger in my opinion
i think they're watching all the games mostly for like the the marquee games right like a monday
night thursday night, Sunday night.
I think for the Superbowl,
this could be like a massive market,
though,
like millions and millions. And I think it actually might be one of the more interesting ones,
if you're going to sit and listen with the sound on.
so I think it's just another new tick,
you know,
as they go along and bring new markets.
So I think these are going to continue to grow more broadly.
The other news out of prediction markets yesterday,
I'm not sure if folks really saw this.
I tweeted about it.
I saw Nick Pressler talking about it.
We had him on founder of Melee Markets.
But there was a big roundtable yesterday
with some of the heads of leading prediction markets.
Shane Copeland was there.
Tarek Mansoor from Koushi was there.
And Shane was talking to Terrence Duffy,
the CEO of the CME group.
And at the end of the commentary,
Terrence Duffy flips him off.
The still of Terrence Duffy flipping off Shane Copeland has already started
to go viral.
I think we will see it more. I will say Shane kind of deserved it. I don't know if folks have
seen the clip, but he's kind of talking about how polymarket prediction markets are an alternative
for younger people where they don't have to go to older people's products like CME.
Terrence L. B. here's that just flips him off. It was funny. Shane laughed it off as well.
So I wanted to share that context.
I do think this is going to be somewhat taken out of context a bit.
But clearly, I mean, Shane and Tarek on the stage there
with some of the biggest heads of traditional finance.
So if you want more of an indicator that prediction markets have made it,
I mean, here you go.
So it looks like they are here and people are finally seriously paying attention.
Some other breaking news, more broader markets here this morning,
is it does look like the SEC is leaning into stock trading on chain
and they want to move fast.
So they're drafting a plan to allow stocks to trade on the blockchain alongside cryptocurrencies.
They want to have rules in place to make it work effectively the same.
Investors can buy tokenized shares of companies like Tesla or Nvidia on crypto exchanges.
Coinbase and Robinhood lobbying for a fast rollout.
This isn't necessarily new we've been talking about tokenized stocks so kind of equities for several months now it does feel
like what's new here is the sec wanting this to happen and wanting it to happen fairly quickly
and logan i think we've talked about this a little bit but i'm curious for your appetite like are you
ready to start trading stocks on chain for me i'm still kind of i've got a mental barrier between
like my crypto assets yeah and my equity assets but maybe that's a barrier i need to bring bring
down i'm curious for your thoughts yeah i i to be honest have no interest in trading stocks on chain
i don't need to you know what i mean there's been a lot of conversation about the whole fee debate regarding punkster and whether
or not you're willing to acknowledge the fees. For me, I'm totally in that I'm disregarding fee
stuff. And I understand that trading things on chain may reduce some of those frictions and
improve my experience over the long run in picking up those, what I'm calling negligible
fees at this point in time. But they just don't matter enough to me. That's one thing that wouldn't
change for me given the size that I'm trading on chain. And to be honest, I don't expect the
experience to be any better than it is right now with me just buying hood stock on Robinhood.
right now with me just buying hood stock on Robinhood. So perhaps the eventually the behind
Sure.
the scenes stuff, right, gets abstracted away. And I don't even realize I'm trading on chain.
Totally fine with me if that's the case, but I'm not going out of my way to do it right now.
It's already easy enough. I have no interest. I don't see the pro personally for myself because
I have access to all these American equities on chain as it is
right now. For folks who maybe don't have that access, totally get why you would perhaps look
to utilize X stocks or any other function which allows you to do so. But for me right now,
I don't see the need and no particular interest. I'm not running out of my shoes to
get tokenized stocks. Perhaps the anonymity of it
would be one potential bull case of fully on chain versus your traditional financial players.
But I don't know if that's a use case you and I are specifically interested in as much. You're
right. I mean, it is still very easy. I sold some meme coins on Solana and moved USDC to my Robinhood wallet in two,
two minutes a month ago to make a quick trade.
So the barriers aren't really that big.
I still do think it's interesting.
I do like the ability of being able to do everything.
Yeah.
I think,
I think the most important part,
yeah,
exactly.
We just said being able to do everything on chain.
And I keep using this word in meshment. I'm not exactly sure why, but that's most important part, exactly what you just said, being able to do everything on chain. And I keep using this word enmeshment.
I'm not exactly sure why,
but that's what this is, right?
I mean, we're putting together
traditional financial mechanisms
and instruments and infrastructure
with crypto and blockchain.
And the further you entwine those things,
the greater those ties deepen,
the harder it is to unravel it all, you know, for good or for
bad. And I think that ultimately just means, you know, this is the further validation of crypto
for our lifetimes, I would imagine, right? Like these types of things,
consider how difficult it is to move any sort of legacy infrastructure to the next stage. This is happening quite rapidly.
I can't imagine it's going to eventually be unfolded in any amount of time.
Yeah, I would tend to agree with you there. So I want to keep moving forward through the market report, ETFs, big boom yesterday.
So I'm looking at the ETFs right now, 547 million in net inflows,
breaking a pretty rough five-day red stretch of outflows.
So a huge day there for the ETFs.
And interesting, I'm looking at BlackRock.
So ETH A was $150 million.
I believe that still reports a day in rears.
So that would be the Friday numbers.
I expect this to likely be green again today.
And then on the Bitcoin side, a touch lower.
Man, ETH, $518 million in net inflows.
Let's look for IBIT.
So IBIT was red. So expect big green numbers again
for the Bitcoin ETFs today as well, which perhaps gets into our lead question. We kind of buried
the lead. Looks like we're kind of chopping around a bit to end the month. We had some
big news out of one of our single biggest KOL in crypto is probably a battle between Michael Saylor and our friend CZ.
He's saying, not predicting the future and don't get too excited.
A September in a past, my first crypto cycle, just data.
And he is linking a screenshot of what happened to Bitcoin in the month of October in 2017.
Notably, he screenshots the fourth at 4 a.m. So double fours
from our friend CZ. And for those who aren't looking at the screen, on October 4th, Bitcoin
was $4,319. It ran to $17,000 by the end of the month in a 4X move. And I don't think anyone is expecting a 4X by any means.
But I think folks are expecting in October.
There's definitely still a lot of bear sentiment on the timeline.
Fear and greed reflects that.
Fear and greed at 43, I saw just this morning.
How are you feeling, Logan?
Do you think we're going to get the uptober?
Man, I don't like fading these folks who are so close to the action.
CZ, of course, is always bullish, right?
So it's really not too much out of the norm for him to be posting about price
go up but it does it does feel like you know things have just been bubbling like i said i've
felt cautiously optimistic this entire time i think the one thing that kind of holds everybody
back is just you don't you don't want to get your hopes up right like we we don't want to get your hopes up, right? Like we, we don't want to get our hopes up for this massive,
massive run and then sort of feel deflated when we only get to 120 K or
whatever. But at the same time, if you kind of like take a step back,
it's so boring, but you take a step back,
Bitcoin just chilling above a hundred thousand as our base case is like,
you know, come on. I'm that's, that's pretty awesome pretty awesome. So I'm not feeling too bad. I feel
pretty good. I don't foresee like the explosive. It's difficult for me to see that right now,
that 4X type thing. Like, I don't think we're going to 500,000. It's difficult for me to even
see like the 250,000 by year end, which has been predicted by lots and lots of people who have, I believe, still stood by those marks.
But as this market does from time and time, it creates unfathomable events, you know,
like what we've seen the last week with things like Aster and beyond.
Those unfathomable events have not really happened with the majors in quite some time.
So if you believe in we're due, yeah, maybe.
I'm just feeling cautiously optimistic.
I think up and to the right throughout the year,
I expect we finish the year higher.
I don't necessarily think we're going to be like exploding,
whatever, $250,000.
I think I'll go ahead and go on the record
and say new all-time highs in October.
Looking at the historical trends,
and yes, I'm very well aware it's a small sample size
and historical patterns don't reflect future trends.
Every single time there's been a green September,
October has been green.
It's four for four, another four.
I do think that likely will continue i feel like we're going to get some positive news
out of the u.s government we've got bitcoin lagging into so substantially it wouldn't even
you don't even necessarily need a catalyst for us just to start to catch up to that huge lag and how Bitcoin has been lagging
effectively the inflation of our money supply. I'll say 15%. This is my gut read. Finger swag
in the air. Looking at this chart, what do I think we're going to get in October 25? I'll say 15%.
That puts us at 130. So yeah, I'll go on the record, say Bitcoin 130 in October.
We will see if that does take place.
I'm sure we will revisit this chart a bit.
As October goes on, September, I mean, it does feel, I don't want to get ahead of ourselves.
It does feel like it's probably going to close green, right?
We would be facing a fairly significant
sell-off to close the month red at this point.
Bitcoin's up 4% on the month, so we would need to see
like 108.5. I think that would be a surprising outcome
today.
But we will see. It happened last week, so certainly
in the realm of possibilities.
But feeling cautiously optimistic about October here in northern Chicago.
Let's start going through the headlines.
It was kind of a slower day for the market overall.
Arguably the biggest headline of the day that, again, I haven't really seen a whole lot of folks talking about,
of the day that again i haven't really seen a whole lot of folks talking about
is swift teaming up with consensus to build this blockchain prototype so i wrote about it in the
newsletter this morning feel free to go check that out um on substack or over on decrypt but
basically swift said it is going to add a blockchain ledger to its infrastructure it's
going to use a conceptual prototype built in partnership with ConsenSys. The first use case is instant, always on interbank
cross-border payments. So 24-7 payments on chain globally across the world. It will be run or
operated by enforced via smart contracts. So there will be rules via smart contracts enforcing this payment
network. And they've got a coalition of 30 plus institutions already plugged into this,
effectively the biggest in the world, Bank of America, Citi, among those names, not yet specified
where this will be, if it will be on ETH mainnet, if it'll be on Linea or elsewhere.
But I think folks are already starting to jump to conclusions
that the fact that they're working with ConsenSys
means this will be on ETH in some capacity.
I saw a DC investor tweeting about this.
For those who don't know,
ConsenSys is an OG Ethereum venture development org
created by Joe Lubin and Ethereum co-founder.
I think there's a lot of winners here.
I wrote about them.
I'm actually curious for your take, Logan.
A, do you think this is going to be on Ethereum?
Is Ethereum potentially the biggest winner here?
And who else some of the winners might be?
Yeah, I think Ethereum is certainly a winner.
Whether or not it's Ethereum or an Ethereum adjacent,
what they call it, a prototype, right, in the press release.
One way or another, it's going to be aligned with the Ethereum ecosystem.
That's what consensus is all about.
That's what Linnea is about, of course, right?
And Joe Lubin and all his ventures at this point in time
have been directly tied to in supporting the Ethereum ecosystem.
So I fully expect Ethereum to be a winner here.
My perspective on this announcement as a whole is like,
I don't think the actual details of this matter all that much.
And it's kind of lame.
But to me, this feels like a win because you have the banking sector, right, which has long been sort
of a fighting against, sort of embracing. And I think that's necessary, right, for that greater
global adoption, all that stuff that we've been talking about. It's a sort of lame answer. But
I ultimately believe that that is truly the best thing that happens here is you have financial
legacy, financial institutions embracing and hopefully seeing the benefits and positives
of crypto and blockchain and forevermore utilizing it in some way. That's the hope, right? And that's
what gets you up into the right kind of forever thing. So, yeah, that's where I say I don't know too much about like exactly what's going to happen here.
I read the article, of course, you know, so Swift doesn't actually do anything with the money.
It's just the messages of the institutions back and forth, like all the cross-border stuff.
So that's, of course, what a ledger would keep track of.
So I don't know exactly how much those finite details matter or how much data either.
Right. Because if you take a look at this article that Stacey wrote over at Decrypt, like Ethereum did like 1.4 million messages or something like that yesterday.
I don't know where it's out there.
And Swift, like on a daily level, yeah ethereum main name process 1.4 million
swift is 53 million uh so of course we're not anticipating that like all of swift is transferring
over nobody said that or anything like that but um understanding just how much capacity is here
and how much it could eventually steal we'll see Indeed. I think this does kind of make me think L2s of some kind would have to be involved.
And again, this is a bit over my area of expertise.
It does feel like signal just from the capitulation of another triadified giant moving on chain.
Also, the bull case for Ethereumereum was largely like the world computer right and i think that thesis was trumpeted loudly as the price was going up but it's since
kind of falling off right i haven't heard as many eth bull takes after the 20 pullback from all time
high uh which i think most are largely uh giving credit credited to the dadsATS, BitMine and SBET,
for taking it to those levels.
But that is aside from the core use case of the protocol.
And I think this is certainly makes sense
for it to be on Ethereum in a lot of different ways.
So clearly a sign that they are building,
I think part of the core bull case for Linnea itself,
whether or not Linnea is included in this prototype or not,
is that Joe Lubin has the connections to make this kind of building happen,
either on Ethereum or on Linnea, perhaps even down the line.
So just because you or your friends may not be using Linea on a day to day basis, doesn't mean that some of the biggest players in the world won't use Linea.
And speaking of those biggest players, Tyler, like I was looking at the Swift press release, like the actual release from Swift.
There's quotes from nearly all of those big banks and the leaders and representatives for those banks you mentioned,
Citi, BNY, Royal Bank of Canada, right? It's a global adoption here. And if you just read
through them, I mean, it seems like these folks know this is the path, right? Like, just,
they have to do it at some point. It makes sense to do it now. And they are engaging and don't really see any way to avoid it.
That's my read from like, even just reading through some of these quotes.
One of the quotes here, I've actually got it pulled up from BNY.
Focus on the evolution of payments infrastructure to meet the demands of an always on global
economy.
I mean, that's it, right?
Like that's crypto and always on global economy.
These institutions recognize that that's where everything is headed.
That's what's a necessity moving forward.
You have to integrate in some way.
And that's, yeah, again, that's where you get the up and to the right, in my opinion.
Indeed.
So this will be another big story to continue to watch.
Other than that, I'll just kind of rapid fire go through a few of the other headlines.
So the SEC and CFTZ pledging closer cooperation on crypto market oversight. I don't think a lot of huge
takeaways from this. I think we've kind of seen this writing on the wall. I did see
Chair Atkins say that crypto is his top priority, which I feel like maybe we have interpreted a bit
as CT natives, those who are following what the SEC is doing on a very close basis.
But when I have conversations with folks like in investment banking who are
outside of crypto, their default take is that the government,
the SEC does not care about crypto at all.
Like I've had that literal conversation.
So at least Atkins is saying, no, it is our top priority.
So maybe folks will start to take that a bit more seriously.
And then I think other big headlines.
Let's just start going down the risk curve a bit here.
Andre Cronje is back.
$200 million seed round at a $1 billion token valuation for flying Tulip.
And then when you read into this, so first off, we'll start about what it is.
New crypto project, DeFi veteran Andre Kroenjee,
they're looking to build an on-chain exchange that spans all of DeFi.
So spot, derivatives, lending, stable coins, and insurance under one system.
I was trying to wrap my head around this morning.
Does this exist on chain right now, all of these things?
And no, I mean, nothing pops to the top of my head.
And I'm not a DeFi expert by any means.
But it does feel like I do see the use case for this.
I guess it's where I'm going.
Big Vision, certainly.
He's had success in the past.
He's had failures in the past as well.
But perhaps what's even more interesting about this is they're going to keep selling.
They're going to sell $800 million worth of these flying tulip tokens via an ICO on their own platform at that same $1 billion valuation.
So $200 million private ratings, $800 million in a public ICO.
Big, big, big numbers here.
Billion dollar valuation or a protocol that isn't really established yet.
I mean, I haven't taken a look under the hood to see exactly where this thing is.
And maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves.
I don't,
I don't see dates in this article,
so I don't necessarily know this is going to happen like next week by any
means.
but Sonic certainly already moving on this.
I think Sonic was a top mover in all of crypto yesterday on the back of
this one,
Andre's other protocols,
Logan,
I'm curious if you saw
this any broad reactions or are you buying the icl uh maybe did you see i think the most interesting
part of this is that on chain redemption right uh which is basically that like you know these folks
who have participated in the first 200 million i'm not sure if the additional 800 million uh
have the same opportunity but more or less, their downside is completely protected.
They can redeem that initial capital at any point in time. So I think Andre had a quote in here,
I'm not sure if it's from the block or maybe another publication, where he basically said
that they raised $0, right? Because they're offering these back via redemption, which is interesting.
Yeah, okay, cool.
So they're not getting access to any of the funds.
Well, it's a little funky
because they are using what's raised
to then generate yield to then, I don't know.
I'm not exactly sure the firm details. I didn't go super, super in depth on it.
But all that to say, like, you know, this is a space in which, you know, people are fully expecting to lose their principal on a daily basis.
Right. Like that's kind of the name of the game. That's how it works in venture anyway.
But particularly here, I would imagine and sort of bucking all trends with saying, hey, you have the opportunity to pull your money back, I believe, at any time.
So interesting. We'll see how that unfolds.
It would be kind of cool.
I mean, it's a little weird to say because it sounds like I'm sucking up to the VCs and folks who are ultimately going to benefit the most here, right?
With no downside and all upside.
But it would be cool to see more trends like this in the future.
Should it actually protect and work out for investors?
Risk-free VC investing.
Risk-free VC investing.
Sign me up.
I mean, clearly at a higher valuation, higher valuation than you would probably normally get.
Some folks who took part in the pump ICO probably would have thought about doing redemption if they could have.
Token traded at almost a full 50% discount.
So you do hedge that risk.
I'm curious what it means for the potential upside.
We'll see.
Yeah, if this goes well.
I do think this definitely increases their chances
of fulfilling the raise, right?
Like you are officially getting all the upside
with no downside other than
just a opportunity cost of your capital, basically, which is rare.
And it does an $800 million size.
It probably also takes a bit away from the trenches.
It takes a little bit away perhaps from some of these other tokens, right?
There is one large hot ball of money here.
And this is largely going to be coming from funds and not just your average day-to-day meme coin trader or hyperliquid trader.
But not a huge stretch to think that it will siphon off a bit of that.
So another big story to watch.
I'd say the other biggest one on change is some of the news we got out of Meteora.
I'm going to try and see if I, maybe I don't have it pulled up. So give me a second while I try to
pull that up. But Meteora did announce their TGE here for October 23rd. And they also have a fairly unique airdrop mechanism that will be a part of that MET, MET, TGE.
And they're effectively giving people LP positions.
So instead of getting MET tokens, you will be given, I didn't have a chance to really dig into this.
I believe MET LP positions is what the specific LP will be.
They're calling it the liquidity distributor.
Meteor will be distributing liquidity positions tied directly to the protocol.
It will come in the form of an NFT,
and it will already be active in generating fees.
So pretty cool.
I mean, you would have to already be into LPing to be qualified for this airdrop.
So it's not like they're sending LP positions to folks who wouldn't know how to manage that.
Seems kind of a cool reward.
Perhaps also diminishes cell pressure right out of the gate.
Curious for your takes reactions to this.
Yeah, I thought this was really interesting to kind of meet the user where they're at, right?
You're providing them with the same exact thing that they've been providing for
you, or for the protocol, I should say, since they started participating. So I think this is
interesting. And I love, as you know very well, Tyler, I love any time that a protocol or someone
is taking a chance on something new. So we'll see exactly how it plays out. You know, the one thing I would say is, while folks participating should know and will know, just the complexities involved here in doing something different, you know, open up execution risk and stuff like that, that perhaps, you know, goes unforeseen in their plans.
plans. But otherwise, yeah, I don't have too much else to say about it. Just eager to see exactly
how it transpires and how people feel about it. I know a lot of people, particularly during those
really big meme coin launches, we're looking to utilize things like Meteora to do this very thing,
to provide liquidity and generate those fees instead of trade the token. So we'll see how it goes. It's interesting.
So reading through exactly how this will work.
So I guess this is the logical conclusion.
I hadn't spent a whole lot of time thinking about this,
but as a traditional LP,
so as the price of MET goes down,
ultimately your LP position will turn it more and more
into a full MET token with zero USDC.
As the token goes through a higher range you will then
effectively start selling your met tokens and you'll have more usdc um so it kind of automates
the selling process based on what the range is i'll be very curious what that initial range is
because there's a situation where if the token pops on debut, all their airdrop recipients sell basically right away
if they don't manage their positions.
Right, if they don't manage them.
And then they're effectively given USDC
without the option to sell at higher prices.
Then on the flip side,
if the token dumps,
then they'll end up with more net tokens.
But I don't know if that's as bad of a situation on paper,
given that it was all a free airdrop to begin with.
So, yeah, this is going to be very curious.
I think there's been a lot of talk about how Pump may do their airdrop.
And there's some speculation that they wouldn't just give Pump tokens
and maybe they would give soul or USDC.
Could we see Allen and team follow some kind of a similar model?
Right.
I do see the value in it.
Yeah.
The other,
the other thing,
like,
you know,
I said that meet them where they're at,
you know,
if you're,
if you're pumped,
maybe it's,
and I'm not suggesting that this would be welcomed or wanted,
but you know,
maybe it's a,
you're providing a portion of the meme coins
that have been generated on the platform.
People are getting fart coin airdropped or some shit.
I don't know exactly what it might be,
but that would be the type of thing that would match this
in providing back what the users have already been participating with.
Man, speaking of Farquhar, we haven't talked about a ton this week. We usually bring it up
with Faroque, so I'll do my best to bring it up with Adam. It's not great, certainly. So
we peaked at $1.60. When was that? July 23rd. And then it's effectively been down only since then so down a full dollar so that's 60 percent 65 70 percent drawdown I was mentally prepared for this I thought it would draw down
into Q4 um I've seen the calls like why would you want to own a pure meme like fart coin when you
can buy these protocols that have real revenue they're doing buybacks and i totally get that yeah right so i
think certainly the the lure of hyperliquid the lure of aster of xbl of apex stable all of these
new tokens right it does detract away and i think that's certainly driving some of the cell pressure
that we are seeing i am curious if and where it finds a bottom.
I think Mando on the show previously did say he doesn't think it's going to go
below 500 million.
He thinks it's a $500 million meme kind of at a minimum or kind of right at
that key support.
And I'm not,
again,
a TA guy.
It looks like five 60,
five 80 is a key level.
We bounced off that,
but still in a clear downtrend.
So we'll see.
I still think this is,
I'm with you on the revenue generating protocols,
this sort of return to fundamentals as far as crypto goes.
Return isn't probably the right word.
I'm not sure it's ever been about fundamentals,
but maybe making our way there.
If memes are going to go up, you know, those pockets
of periods when memes do go up, this still feels like one of, if not the strongest narratives on
the board. Thank you for saying that, Logan. Sorry? Thank you for saying that. Yes, of course.
And I own a, I have some on a ledger somewhere that I haven't touched in months, but otherwise don't own very many fart coins in total.
So just a full disclosure there.
I don't see a world in which memes pick up steam and this does not go up.
That's just, you know, I think the narrative is too strong.
To me, it is cemented itself as like a multi-
Seems crazy, but-
Multi-cycle meme.
Like a multi-cycle meme.
Yeah, it really has.
And I don't know why.
Like, I don't have super strong conviction on like $5, $10 fart coin or anything like that.
But I feel pretty convicted in the floor here.
You know, so as mando is saying 500 million
i i think that seems fair i i i don't see it going you know too far below where we're at now
it's also it's a momentum asset it's reflexive i do think as soon as you start to see
a couple big accounts say like oh i think far coins are by here and the price starts to go up
i got i could absolutely see folks start to pile back into this thing.
Ibra says everyone buys Farcoin at the price they deserve.
I agree with that wholeheartedly.
This is also, as far as memes go,
and one of the reasons I still cling to this being one of the strongest narratives
is if one is going to gather the mainstream attention,
recall all the newspaper headlines and stuff like that for
making fun and the mockery of crypto and tokens and meme coins. This is still like the top one,
right? In my opinion, it is like the one that is most likely to generate those types of headlines
aside from Dogecoin, right? And Dogecoin is something different entirely at this point in time.
So I'm still here.
I'm still here with it.
I wouldn't be writing this off and never paying attention to it again.
I'm with you.
I still think we see higher in Q4.
I'm going to stick to my guns on that prediction.
I've been holding through it.
I do think a couple positives.
One, we knew
it was an incredibly crowded trade at a dollar 16 on this whole grind up i do think it's becoming
less crowded and then it was a very delta neutral trade so like all the the pumps were very limited
and compressed because people were also you know buying spot or or selling short or the opposite.
And it was very profitable to do that.
And I feel like that's been unwound a bit during all of this as well.
And there's other areas with better funding rates to do that.
So I think those are a couple big shifts.
I haven't taken a look at holder count,
so I'll pull that up sometime as well.
But we'll see.
I don't think we're out of the woods yet,
but perhaps nearing the bottom on our good old friend.
Continuing to go through some of the risk curve items,
then Logan's going to catch us up on a few pieces of news here in a minute as well.
Punk Strategy, bought their 18th Punk yesterday.
Man, that wallet looks nice.
Holden 18 of these things.
Token a bit volatile.
Saw a little bit of sales.
We're kind of just grinding back up.
It's hanging out at 85 million within 10% of all time highs.
So the strategy tokens continue to do well.
I think Adam came out with a post yesterday.
They've paused the new launches.
They want to work through all the bugs and all the contracts. Once they feel good that they're going to restart so there's also near-term catalyst as soon as the
next series of these gets going the other thing about this is like ranging doesn't matter right
it's just collecting fees uh trading fees right i mean that that's kind of like one of the really
nice things about these um i'm not even ranging like as a holder who i do believe in this long
term and i do own
some i was happy that it sold off this huge sell-off that flood sell-off on sunday i think it
was um maybe saturday early saturday um because it generated a ton of fees right that's what i mean
led to its buying a punk so i think volatility is great right you don't you don't need to be
discouraged i mean it's so long as this continues to be traded,
I think that's one of the genius things about this is like,
so long as people are trading it, you're kind of winning.
You know what I mean?
Even if price isn't going up.
Because collectively the goal is to keep buying more punks
and hopefully eventually sell them as well.
Yeah.
And the next punk they buy,
so they've got 18,
they will be in the top 50,
which is kind of nuts.
So expect that to happen perhaps as soon as today,
if not today,
I say it will happen tomorrow.
There must be a world in which punk strategy
is the biggest punk holder, right?
There hasn't been like an explicit stated goal to do that right holy shit yeah 414 it's gonna be tough otc owns one of his otc
owns 115 god the burn address has 294 punks it's hard to i don't know The path to 115 still feels far. Yeah. It's very far off. And I know this is part crypto ethos with the smart contracts and everything like that.
So it would be a little weird if Adam said something about rallying behind a specific goal.
That would just seem maybe a little adjacent to what's happening here. But at the same time,
I think the community could really rally behind trying to,
you know,
like flip the burn address or something like that.
Yeah,
definitely.
You will need a lot of,
we'll need punks to go on some runs.
I think for that to happen,
perhaps.
Yeah,
actually I haven't sat down and thought about what the optimal outcome is.
You don't want them to go become too expensive because then it'll be too hard
to continually buy them.
But you want those punks that they own to sell
too because that's where the excitement is going to come from.
It's almost like you want a big pump, pull back, big pump, pull back.
It's probably optimal.
Yeah, I don't know. We'll see. There's some stuff coming up for punks though too i mean this was a
small headline from yesterday but i don't know if you saw that the node foundation
um indicated uh the dates for the opening right so punks ip was larvalabs or not larvalabs uh
yugolabs sold the punks ip earlier this year the node foundation uh they're going to set up this
space in palo alto for folks to better experience,
you know, this digital exhibition of CryptoPunks.
I don't exactly know what it will look like or anything like that,
but I believe yesterday was the day they sort of opened up waitlist stuff
for being at the opening.
So that's a little ways off.
It's in January.
So it's not an immediate catalyst or anything like that,
but perhaps savvy investors looking to get ahead of that would start running
up the floor price ahead of time.
Very possible.
I think the other takeaway is since punk strategy has been on the scene,
there really has not been a whole lot of other buying.
So if anyone steps in to buy punks like this,
that's also going to help.
And it feels like nobody has,
it's been pretty quiet
over the last few weeks um maybe somewhat surprising but maybe not a lot of the big
dogs are out traveling the conference tours um the market's been kind of in a weird place like
some folks thought maybe the top was in so i think perhaps bullish run on majors in October probably resets NFT sentiment as well.
And with the punk strategy backdrop, I mean, has it ever been safer to buy a punk?
Probably not.
I was just going to add, I mean, don't you think the narrative here is just getting stronger daily for punks?
I mean, consider what we were just discussing with Swift potentially having some overlap with Ethereum, right?
And all of these institutions, major, massive global institutions participating alongside Ethereum and very much cementing themselves in this ecosystem, albeit participating in a different way, but very much being here, probably forevermore.
Doesn't that strengthen?
To me, that just strengthens this narrative.
Absolutely.
Every single macro bull story for ETH and probably for broader crypto matters a bit for punks.
Yeah, and it's impossible to zoom out as far as you need to for an asset like punks, in my opinion. And I don't know. I don't have any exposure to punks yeah and it's it's it's impossible to zoom out as far as you need to for an asset like
punks in my opinion um and i don't know i don't have any exposure to punks i'm a former crypto
punk owner um but i have no exposure at all um but it's difficult for me to see like these banks
and stuff they work so slowly that these you know financial institutions and whatever all this stuff
just happens so slowly like it's going to be
adopting things for 10 20 30 years it's impossible for us to zoom out that far but when you do when
you do get there and you look back i mean these are antiques these are relics think about the you
know just how much that stuff goes for um maybe i'm talking talking myself into finding exposure to a punk right so like let's look at the
price for it so the floor is much higher when i bought my second um the floor was basically 250k
back then let's see so i mean it is we zoom out a bit so okay wow it dipped all the way to 168
last week i guess that was when ETH was plunging.
And then the punk 4 went down to 44.
So that was a very nice dip.
If you want a small Logie anecdote, Tyler.
So the punk that I bought, I purchased with some friends in 2021,
February of 2021.
It was the largest single USD purchase of my life up to that point.
And I bought a fraction of the Punk.
We bought it for $11,000.
It was like six ETH or something like that.
I think we bought it from D's or D's at least helped me facilitate it via the CryptoPunks Discord.
We sold it in the Visa run up, which was nice.
It was a life- changing thing for me. So, you know, like,
I don't feel bad about having sold it. But kicking myself, you know,
for all those times we were on the conversations in the doldrums. Yeah.
Of a time when we were talking about, you know, 25 E things like that.
Like, yeah, kicking myself for not gaining exposure back despite you know maintaining this
level of conviction about these are going to be here forever so let's look at some historical
trends so november 2022 somewhat of a bottom punk floor rips 50 into de December 2024. We have a bottom 65K in mid-October, runs all the way to
three X's in two quarters. 2024, we see a bottom in August, another bottom in November, then
straight up Trump election. Basically what? Yeah, one and a a half x almost two and a half x rather
and we'll see if history repeats we're going to be starting from a higher place this year um
so it'll be fun to watch we talked about zooming out are you ready to zoom out on hyper so do we
need to stay zoomed in a bit more i was i almost capitulated into this but luckily i didn't have an easy path to 60k
um now the floor has been dipping maybe you can argue maybe you're starting to see a little bit
of a curl here i probably want to see a little bit more so the hyper floor was over 1400 hype
yesterday i think it was 65k at peak it's down to a 1200 now i'm probably closer to 55k still a very high floor yeah these
are pretty good man um i i've not explored the collection really but just taking a look at this
you've got you've got a little bit of something for everyone here you've got the golfer i love
the baguette uh and beret combo skateboard um. They're pretty nice.
I like them.
But to answer, I mean, you know,
I think you zoom out a little bit.
You let some more time pass.
You let some of the momentum fade.
You let some of the, you know, euphoria sort of drain out.
Like I said before, hype has enriched a lot of people.
It enriched 4,000 others or some
fraction of that in the last few days here. You got to let some of those people take that money
off the table and see kind of where a true floor establishes. This is the airdrop floor right now,
just like with tokens that come out first day or two. I don't always act on those instincts
appropriately to sort of let things chill out.
You know, we're always too eager, too excited. But I have no interest in buying one of these.
But if I were looking to buy one, I would give it some time.
Yeah, I think unless there is an announcement or an airdrop of some kind to hyper NFTs,
like another hyper protocol, in the absence of that happening soon,
I still think that it's probably lower before higher.
It is my gut read on this.
But man, I can't argue with,
these things are actively being swept.
There's been five sales in the past 10 minutes
at a 50K floor.
That is crazy liquid.
1.8 million hype in 24-hour volume,
that's $80 million.
Significantly above everything else that's happening in NFTs right now.
So it does feel like it will be a catalyst,
but because it's in the hyper EVM ecosystem,
I don't think the people who are getting these airdrops and selling are
selling to buy other NFTs necessarily.
Maybe someone who got a lot sell three and get a punk maybe.
But I don't know.
They're probably just rotating to spot hype is my gut on this,
which is also why in general,
I am bearish on hype assets because people love the token so much
that if you think hype's going to 100,
do you think it's going to hold its floor in hype?
I don't know.
That's the bet, right?
So if you're buying the NFT,
you do ultimately want to trade it for more hype
at some point.
Yeah.
If this were me,
I would be taking the 1200 hype.
That's for sure.
Yeah, I think over the hyper.
For sure.
A lot of people clearly are.
I would love to see the stats on what percent of the airdropped NFTs have already churned through versus still are originally held.
So maybe I'll try to find that before tomorrow's show.
We thought we were going to go maybe 45 minutes today. We went the full hour, folks, but that is going to end up being it. I
want to thank all of our listeners for tuning in today. I want to thank Logan for stepping in and
co-hosting again. He'll be on with us for the rest of this week. We'll be back tomorrow at 10 a.m.
for another episode of FOMO Hour. Till then, go make it a beautiful day. Goodbye. Thank you.
