Thank you. you What's up everybody
what's up what's up all right kick it sims Thank you. Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, what up, what up, good morning, good morning, GMG, eh, Tuesday, July 29th, 2025, look at that. Another beautiful day to have a beautiful day.
I got my co-host in the house, Tyler.
Good morning, good morning, good morning.
I feel like we're just in the waiting room right now for tomorrow and the second half of this week, which we are expecting to be really big,
really big day, a lot of news coming.
Today feels like we're kind of in the chop zone, just waiting it out,
but still some exciting things happened. So a lot to get into.
Yeah. I mean, it's, it's, I mean, it's, it is, I mean,
I wish Farquhar was in that waiting room with you right now, but you know,
my bags are definitely not in the waiting room, you know, but it's okay.
It's okay. You know, it's my bags, in the waiting room, you know, but it's okay. It's okay.
I got attacked in every bag overnight, you know, like my fart coins getting attacked.
You know, they bombarded by winter nuke classic to chase some longs.
I mean, you guys keep leveraging long the fucking Pico topic.
I can't, I can't blame Mecca makers for, for, for blame macro makers for dragging you out on a stretch.
You know what I mean? And then
I wake up this morning, having my coffee,
And I'm here chilling. Maybe I DC into
It's funny. I was on Uniswap buying
and I was going to buy, right?
bought it lower then. I added something like $, right? And then, I mean, I just bought it lower then.
I added something like $360 million.
And then all my other money, everything's getting attacked.
But, you know, at least Papa Joe Lubin's out there making big announcements about Linnea and the area.
We all know Myriad is my biggest bag.
So we'll talk about that in a second, I'm sure.
Today on the show, we'll talk markets.
Of course, the great Mando.
Great Mando, that was his original taker,
He's going to be back on the show tomorrow,
but for now, we'll talk markets.
Or maybe we wait for the markets
because we'll talk with Jason Atkins
who's going to join us from Oros.
I think you guys really liked him on the show last time.
We're bringing him back this time
to get his outlook on the market and what's coming up.
So we'll talk markets, but first, go through some news with tyler yada yada then jason's
going to join us then um giveaway we gave away 900 yesterday to rocky rocky congratulations
he's already in here love the guy uh so congrats for winning so let's see who else is going to win
a couple thousand dollars today on the show hopefully someone's there to play some lamp
chop with us so yeet.com make sure that you you sign up using our code FOMOHOUR.
You know how to spell that.
Y'all know how to spell that.
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I I'm like full on AI at this stage.
Why don't we just like pre-record these ad reads so I don't have to do it every morning?
Got to keep it on your toes, man.
Like we've had these like.
I'm ready for a full AI version of myself that can do a lot of reads.
Clearly you and I don't buy the right bag so we could have
ai version ourselves and retire with mando um you know so definitely um definitely that's uh
yeah we're definitely not in uh in the right uh in the right place at the right time but
we're not there yet but we will be we're positioned our time, but it'll come. We're not there yet, but we will be. We're positioned.
Our time will come when the sellers who appear to be David Goggins on the Farcone chart will get exhausted.
That'll happen. Anyways, while we get right into it, Tyler, let's see what you got for us today. Daily NFT and crypto analysis. Totality on FOMO.
Yeah, folks, red day out there.
Majors are down about 1% to 2%.
A lot of alts and memes are down even more in the 5% to 15% range.
Bitcoin, it's down less than 1.18100 right now.
We've got ETH down 1%, 3804, still above 38.
Solana took a bit of a hit down 5%, 181.
So the majors, again, aren't that bad, but the rest of the board looks much worse.
We did have the ETH ETFs.
They kept their net inflow streak going, $65 million in inflows yesterday.
That is the lowest total they've had in a few weeks now. We had Tron
file with the SEC for a $1 billion shelf to issue mixed securities. So their securities are coming.
We talked about this on the show yesterday briefly. Interactive Brokers, considering launching a
stable coin and PayPal announced the new Pay With Crypto campaign, will accept over 100
cryptocurrencies for their small businesses. Ray Dalio, this was big. He came out, said he is
now advising a 15% allocation to either gold or Bitcoin crypto for investors. He cited rising
debt and market fragility as his drivers. Then big news right before the show out of Linea.
Linea has announced their tokenomics. They've announced some ethburns, the protocol level,
native yield, and more. So we'll have to get into that.
Big news out of Papa Joe.
In corporate treasuries, Bitminer, they filed a shelf with the SEC.
They're unlocking their pipe.
They also announced a $1 billion share buyback.
They also disclosed they now have 625,000 ETH.
Sharpwind Gaming, SBET, announced they've got 438,000.
So some big upticks on the ETH treasury board.
We had this new CEA Industries, ticker Vape.
After news, they're forming a $500 million B&B Treasury.
Mill City Ventures, $450 million raised to build a SWE corporate treasury.
So all the majors, everything in the top 20,
they're going to have a treasury go.
In token airdrop and protocol news, Plasma completed its XPL public sale.
$370 million committed, more than 7x oversubscribed.
So massive demand for Plasma right now.
MetaMask came out with two announcements, in-wallet sole staking along with stablecoin earn,
basically native yield directly in wallet.
Abstract introduced wallet delegation,
allowing users to link any EVM wallet to the abstract global wallet
That's a big unlock, a big pain point I've seen users point to.
Proof of play, tease the new game coming to abstract.
I tweeted this out yesterday.
Market share, 83% pump market share around 8% as pump continues to decline.
Rounding this out, in AI crypto, the AI board was very red, down about 6% overall.
Arguably the most interesting story of the day was this AI agent, Ribbita, tied to the Tibber token and bought that clown pump for 89 ETH.
It apparently was an agentic purchase and they
announced plans for a broader token economy. That timber token ran 57% on the back of that news.
We had the NLG meme coin briefly sore 100% after Faze Banks shared that he exited his whole position,
though it has since retraced a bet. And then CryptoPunks, 35 sales, $8 million in action.
That fours up to $206,000.
All the aesthetic punks are getting lifted.
Fidenzas were also up 25%.
They're kind of catching up to punks.
Wouldn't be surprised if we see a Fidenza flip.
The NBA Top Shots, they are now in vending machines.
Cool article in the Crypt.
So I thought that was a cool story as well.
New distribution mechanism.
Yeah, that was the rundown.
A lot of good stuff going on here.
Maybe we quickly start with the Alinea and Ethereum stuff because that's, I guess, super relevant.
Dude, it's giving no dips, man.
It's really giving no dips pretty wild but let's start maybe with uh with uh with that and then uh and then
let's move on to the next news yeah so linea has been building an ethereum layer too we've known
this for a while pretty big blockbuster announcement this morning introducing native ethield protocol
level ethereum and this new largest ecosystem fund where they also announced their tokenomics Wow, pretty big blockbuster announcement this morning, introducing native ETH yields, protocol level ETH burn,
and this new largest ecosystem fund,
where they also announced their tokenomics.
So they are saying they'll be the first L2 to burn ETH at the protocol level.
20% of all transactions that are paid in ETH will be burned,
which will be effectively reducing the ETH supply.
They also announced that all ETH deposits are going to be producing staking
This is your native yield. You bridge
ETH over to Linnea, it will start
Then they share their tokenomics.
That Linnea token, we've known it's coming.
It looks like we've got our
first glimpse into how the token will be distributed
85% to the ecosystem, 85% to the ecosystem,
10% to early contributors
for the ecosystem. Looks like they are going to be
directing funds towards builders,
Ethereum public goods, research
and development. It's going to be managed by the
Linea Consortium, which has folks from
SharePoint Gaming, Status
Rounding this out, full Ethereum equivalent tech, ETH as gas. And rounding this out,
full Ethereum equivalent tech,
ETH's gas token, ETH burn,
capital efficient mechanics,
And they're really leaning into
a lot of the Ethereum decentralization ethos.
And now we've got our first glimpse
finally a Nel2 that brings value to the mother chain?
I think that's well said.
Have we seen this before?
The biggest concern around L2 is that they derive value out of tier 1, right?
Their token, their pockets, everything.
And it looks like, you know,
Linear right now is arguably could become one of the,
if not the most Ethereum-aligned L2 here.
I think that is very obvious.
20% of all net transaction fees paid in ETH will be burned directly.
The native yield is huge.
I mean, Blast went down the native yield route.
So I don't know exactly how the mechanics are different from how Linnea is going to operate from how Blast did it.
But that's also just super nice.
I mean, people don't understand that.
It means if you put your ETH on Linnea, you're going to start earning on it. But that's also just super nice. I mean, people don't understand that. It means if you put your ETH on Linea,
you're going to start earning on it.
That TVL is probably going to skyrocket,
let's revisit where they're at right now.
that was much lower when we,
when we like started like working with them on the protocol expansion there,
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see that go back
We started talking a while ago,
It's like 120 or something.
So that's 160 is a big change already.
the other wildcard in the room, right?
Sharplink has $1.7 billion of ETH.
So if they start parking some of that on Linear,
that's going to increase the TBL.
I sent you some tweets from Joe,
and I have no information on this,
but do you think they're going to tokenize SBET on Linear or some shit?
I feel like they're talking about this a lot.
I don't know what they're going to do. I literally have no information
on these guys at all, but I'm just thinking
like, I don't know. It seems like there's a lot going on.
That would make sense, right? I think Joe's
That's kind of where the puck
expect that in the next quarter.
In the next 12 to 18 months yeah sure
very non-zero to do that i think that would be a nice unlock right i still think there's like
this separation of capital that's deployed into stocks yeah of course you know for me it definitely
is separate so it just has to be right and there's not a whole lot. We have the X stocks. They're coming out. There's a handful of them liquidity
There's fantastic, but it'll be getting better and better
I mean this is I told everyone like pay attention to the 10th anniversary of Ethereum on the 30th
Like of course gonna be a bunch of announcements a bunch of events right now in New York
Stuff like that was meant to be there this week can't make it
but uh, there's a lot of stuff going around, man.
I don't think they're done here on the announcement side.
So this is actually good.
This is actually pretty good.
And I don't think this is going to stop anytime soon.
And I'm very excited to see what comes out of that team over there.
This is a good time to be building on ETH, right?
Like, for Westworld, he's probably going to drag all else who's up with them, right?
We've seen Arbitrum was the leader of, like, ETH CC with Robinhood.
There's a lot of positive momentum on there.
You know, obviously, like, still, like, what Luka's doing on the pudgy side is going to bring mass attention and people abstract.
That's kind of like a sleeper at this stage,
but I did see Saigar post some good news yesterday around that.
Then you have Joe just punching forward with Linnea.
So it's like, dude, it's going to get interesting on Ethereum.
Sharplings is dropping announcements every other day, it seems.
And then now Metamask is too, right?
Like, we're going to start rolling out.
So they had two announcements with the Solana in-wallet,
sole staking, validating, and then also the stablecoin yield in-wallet.
So they're cooking over a consensus.
It's almost like these people started Ethereum.
It's almost like that, right?
For those of you who don't know.
For what it's worth, a lot of people may not know the story.
I'm happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.
But obviously Joel Urban is a co-founder of Ethereum,
aka the person like helped fund the entire thing with Vitalik, etc.
And the core devs, right?
There were like a few of them.
So Joe Lubin is leading a co-founder of Ethereum.
And then ConsenSys was meant to be the marketing arm to Ethereum
and to be the company that was meant to like help, you know,
start it, push it, help it, right?
Like bootstrap it, right?
So ConsenSys was this company that was meant to do so.
And then out of that spun out like a ton of like the biggest companies that you guys know.
Back then it was Gnosis, like literally you have MetaMask, Infura, you know, all this big stuff.
And then the Mesh, which is the investment arm of ConsenSys, you know,
because that's ConsenSys software, ConsenSys of Mesh,
has done a ton of investments in the page, in the industry.
into the arm and everything.
So it's in their best interest that this works well,
but I feel like there's also approaching it the right way.
So super bullish on that and excited to see what happens,
Um, so I related to the, to the E this week. Anyways, what else, Tyler? Um,
we transitioned Tom Lee and,
and BitMine had a couple announcements.
So their pipe unlock happens today.
So that's where the initial investors who got it in a lower share price,
they are now officially able to sell.
We saw what this did to the SBET stock.
Typically this is where these treasury coast stocks see a price decrease and kind of rebalancing, resettling.
Then they also announced a buyback plan, which is
a little, I guess it caught me a little bit by surprise. One of the main ways these
companies are raising capital to buy ETH
is by selling their stock shares at the market, their ATM
So now they announced this buyback of up to a billion dollars,
which is kind of like stopping it.
It goes against the core idea of the ATM.
So that caught me off guard.
I need to dig into it a little bit more. But I wonder if it's perhaps a tactic to stop some of the big drastic sell-off
coming right out of their pipe.
Their stock is down 9% today.
It's at 32, still trading at $3.6 billion.
And again, I riled this off in the minutes,
but they have 625,000 ETH.
They're still number one.
And then Sharplink's got 438.
So over a million ETH now held in BitMine and Sharplink.
That was not held there a couple months ago.
So the accumulation is very real, and that is what's helping keep ETH afloat.
I'll be curious to talk to Jason to see his thoughts on what the sell pressure on ETH
looks like against this huge buy wall, because this buy wall is clearly there, and it's not
slowing down anytime soon.
Another ETH adjacent headline.
We got to talk about this punks rally.
we got to pull up the sales board.
what was most notable about what was happening yesterday?
it wasn't just floor sweeps.
It was aesthetic punks above floor, even mid-tears getting picked up.
That's getting lifted today.
This zombie is getting lifted by Friday max at $4 million.
I'm just looking at this. I'm like, dude,
That could get lifted very quick.
There's one here. I didn't realize so many people could listen.
The zombie could get lifted soon here.
Take us to the punk sweep.
I missed it, actually. It was a lot.
It was a handful of different buyers.
We had the Top Hat sell for $85.
We had the Clown sell for $89.
I'll come back to that and why it was meaningful.
A few nice fedoras selling at $65.
Basically, any nice-looking punk above floor just got picked.
So the floor is going to get thinner and thinner here.
I saw it at 206 this morning.
$8 million in volume, which is huge for where we've been at lately.
But then I also looked at the Solana meme board,
and there's still 10 memes saying more than $10 million in daily volume.
And yes, I understand it's different, but I think we've got more room to go there.
But arguably, the most interesting punk sale of the day was the 89 Eats clown.
So this one's tied to Tibur and Mickey Malka and all those guys, right?
Let me tell the story real quick.
So there's been speculation on this Tibur token since its creation that it's tied to
Mickey Malka and Ribbit Capital.
Mickey is the founder of Ribbit Capital.
Tibur is literally Ribbit spelled backwards.
Some sleuths put this together.
They did some on-chain analysis.
They tied some of the wallets back to Mickey.
So what happened yesterday?
We had this Ribbita account.
Announced that it was the one that bought the A90 clown.
running the account as we understand it.
It announced that the analysis that it went through
to pick out this punk, particularly how it scanned
all of them, found the perfect one, and then landed on this
and then made the purchase. And then it goes into what's happening
next. So it's going to give out soldbound entities to all the Tiber
token holders and then build out
a token economy. The Tibber token soared about 50%. On the news, it's back to all-time high,
130, 140 million or so. I think the reason this is significant, for one, it looks like
the speculation may be somewhat based on reality. We don't have full confirmation. There's no
statement from Mickey Malka that he's tied to this yet.
We did see a response from someone on the Ribbit Capital team,
shared the eyeballs in response to that clown punk purchase.
That was the first time we'd seen that Eva person do that.
And then other folks are taking this as this is,
this has been a stealth project.
This is perhaps then moving out of stealth.
So the folks in the Tibber chat is quite excited about all this.
I think still a bit in the speculation phase,
but perhaps moving out of it.
I think it's pretty obvious now.
Disposure, I do hold this.
I've been holding it for a while.
I haven't been wanting to talk about
too much on the show because it was so speculative um and we didn't have that much evidence but now
we've got a little bit more interesting it went viral it did it definitely did there's 152 000
views on this on this uh on this uh thread from the from the the punk there.
I see Jason in the studio.
We'll get to you in a second, Jason.
Tyler, what else you got for this?
There was like a fun news day yesterday.
There's like a lot of different things.
Yeah, I thought the Top Shot story was fun.
If you had the article from Decrypt,
Logan wrote about just the quick TLDR
they've launched their Top Shot packs
in these smart vending machines in Japan.
I think what's cool about it
is buyers don't need crypto,
They can just use their phone,
they can pay via Apple Pay, Google Pay,
and they can buy a pack in the back end.
It'll set up a Flow wallet. For them, they'll receive the pack, they'll be able to open it, and they can buy a pack in the back end. It'll set up a flow wallet for them.
They'll receive the pack. They'll be able to open it
and they'll effectively be onboarded.
I think that they're selling for a thousand yen, which is like
So, you know, a very approachable
cool new potential onboarding mechanism.
a top shot onboarding all of Japan, you know,
via this, this smart vending machine. Right.
But it is a cool tactic. And I'm curious if this,
I can see this model working, right?
It needs to be for the specific type of NFT project.
Like this is not how board apes are going to sell or pudgy piglets.
your Pokemon style project.
that type of collectible.
I can see this making sense.
Cool story. Go dig into it
about it. But caught me by surprise.
Yeah, I liked it. This is really cool.
Dude, we keep saying it. I think Top Shot's
that can probably just stick around.
People like what they're doing.
That's always going to be around, right?
The collectibles. They were the first one too.
There's always going to be these people that
I have to put this thing.
to like collecting like OG NFTs and stuff.
Topshop's kind of up there,
The model always made sense to me.
I still prefer holding digital sports collectibles over physical.
Yep. Definitely a lot sticking around. Yep.
Definitely a lot going on there.
And then last but not least,
we're going to talk about this MLG crash out
Yeah, I mean, I was barely involved.
I turned out to give too much of my attention time
But basically, like, Banks came out,
said that being involved in this meme coin
was a terrible part of his life.
He sold it all. Took like
$106,000 loss or so, he claims.
as soon as he was out, folks started buying
that MLG token. It briefly
or so. I'm seeing now it's up 70% on the day at 15.
So if you are an early MLG holder,
like this is probably like your hallelujah moment.
And like D's is in this group.
So like D's actually held MLG.
very early before those guys all jumped in.
is it going to return to its roots?
of overhead to work through.
I don't know if this thing is just going to
shoot right back up to all-time
highs, but perhaps it's a little bit cleaner
I think they said they were going to do a space
like Aiden Ross and Biggs. I don't know if they actually did.
listening. This is crazy, bro. The Ross and Biggs. I don't know if they actually did. I was not listening.
The timeline is never dull.
There's always something going on there.
It's pretty hilarious, actually.
But anyways, okay, it looks like this is a good roundup, right?
A new interview with Joe Lubin just dropped like 20 minutes ago.
So probably one worth digging into here.
Listen, he came on the show like two months ago.
And he dropped a ton of alpha.
And look at what happened after that, dude.
He couldn't like talk too much with it.
He's like hinting, hinting, hinting, hinting.
Just so much of this going on.
Anyways, a lot of good stuff. And you absolutely love to see. Let's like hinting, hinting, hinting, hinting, and bang! Just so much that's going on. Anyways, a lot of good stuff.
And you'd absolutely love to. So let's bring
Good morning. Hi, fellas.
Or good night, actually. How you doing?
just listening to what you were saying. I think last time I was on the
show was right after Joe Luton
was on. The day after. Oh, we had to post you
I was actually waiting for the call-up this week,
tonight, for you to say I can't because Lenny got announced.
He goes, he's going to hop on and we're going to bump you again.
We had to keep best for last.
That was going to be the last straw.
Listen, Donald Trump, Mark Cuban, Joe Lubin, Jason Atkins.
You've done that loop again.
You've just got to get Trump back.
Now we've got to get this going.
Anyways, Jason, how are you doing, man?
You look like you're embracing the Portugal life.
I've got to shave again here so I can go full stash.
But we're out there working out, doing our thing.
How are you doing, Tyler? You all right? I'm good. Yeah. so I can go full stash, you know. But we're out there working out, doing our thing, you know.
How are you doing, Tyler?
Yeah, summer is picking up a little bit.
We've got a lot of weekly action right now.
It feels like a weird summer.
I feel like I was thinking that last year's summer,
everyone was like, oh, everyone's away.
Like, no vibes, no momentum, nothing.
This year, we're, like, pushing all-time highs.
People, I guess, still building summer, but it kind of feels like there's a lot more going on
for a June-July sort of period.
So I guess we'll see what August brings in a couple of days.
Well, this is why you're on here, Jason.
yo, let's get someone to come talk markets with us
because our beloved Mando's been out for a week.
I mean, he's too rich for us now.
We can tell by the way he tweets.
Yeah, we can tell by the way he tweets.
You just know when Mando's up a lot,
the way he starts replying to people on Twitter.
And then we decided, hey, let's bring someone who knows the markets
and wants to talk about where we're at.
Tyler, I've been talking a lot about how we're in this weird place.
We're kind of ranging at all-time highs.
And then, you know, also not really picking up.
Like 8-something percent in the last month or so.
We talked about this last time I was on the show.
I think it was before all this stuff happened a couple of months ago.
And all the treasury strategies were just starting to get fleshed out.
And that institutional demand, I guess you can probably call it,
wasn't really pulsing through the market yet.
But you're seeing this persistence of underlying demand
going right back to when the ETFs got approved.
You've got that constant inflow and then now you've got
the treasury vehicles coming in and it's like,
it's just economics 101 at this point.
Like dust off your old textbook and supply demand codes don't change.
It's at the end of the day, I think I heard just as I was joining
the waiting room, you guys were talking about like who's selling.
There is supply coming into the market.
I think like a lot of the memeing about like we're running out of Ethereum
is echoing the same sort of things that happen with bitcoin right there's no more
bitcoin left otc desks are screwed there's nothing to sell doesn't really work like that there's
always a price that someone's willing to sell at like i'd sell my bag at some level um a lot of
people would sell at certain levels so i think what you're seeing in the eighth card who's going
to be rotating out a lot of people got burned back when we touched 4,000,
what, a year and a bit ago,
and then wrote it all the way down to $1,500.
So you've got to think that there are, like,
bag holders out there that are being pretty traumatized by this.
A lot of people will start to look at technicals,
I know you guys look at charts a lot.
That stuff will start to play into factors.
And then you've got to remember,
with institutional bids comes institutional-style trading.
So the guys that are buying the ETFs are also trading them
the way that they trade other ETFs.
And those guys aren't like your traditional Bitcoin buy
and hold, Michael Saylor-style buy blindly
and just hold no matter what price action comes.
You've got to remember that crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, all the majors have traded
volatile markets because of the underlying buyers and sellers are these wild speculators.
If you want to bring in institutional players, you have to remember they are institutional
They trade very, very differently.
They have investment committees so you don't expect these moves to be as like one directional squeezy they
will take profit and there will be periods of like to your point for a like sideways chop that feels
to us like highly tuned to volatility people it's going to feel a lot like a different sort of move higher.
There's always going to be sellers.
There's guys rotating out.
I think you probably talked about it already on the previous show, but the unstaking queue
was massive at one point for Ethereum.
There are little signals that people that are sitting on big bags now that were very
small bags less than a year ago are like, I'm going to take profit on half my bag or a quarter of my bag
just because that's sensible profit-taking and trading.
So, yeah, I don't think – I think the Treasury scenario
will obviously add more momentum to these traders
that's doing already, Treasury trade rather,
like a lot of these Treasury strategies
that are coming through for various tokens.
But you will see rotation and you will see people taking profit.
That's going to slow some of this down.
So not to like rain on anyone's parade.
I think ultimately the institutional demand is overwhelming and will continue
it's not going to be watermelon seed being squeezed and no,
no resistance to the top side.
Why did we get him on the show today, man?
This was the group of people that weren't rich enough
We're going to have to show up next week as well.
We were talking to Udi last Friday about Bitcoin,
and one of his core theses is effectively
that the cell pressure on Bitcoin
is mostly alleviated from the ancient whales.
And that the buy pressure will be able to send it forward now
versus ETH, which has to chop through that more.
There's a lot more ancient ETH whales.
ICO buyers, that sort of thing to churn through
before it really goes to the next level.
So I was curious, is that your read?
Do you think we're going to be chopping around this 4K level
longer than perhaps we thought?
Because there was a point where we thought we were just going to straight line
And I'm very guilty of falling into straight line bias.
Yeah, I mean, it's like any resistance level.
Usually, I mean, traditional financial markets,
like let's step away from crypto for a second.
If you're thinking about institutional traders coming in and how they trade,
traditional financial markets tend to chop around resistance.
They break it briefly, take out the first level of stops behind,
and then that comes back and retraces.
It's observable across many asset classes, pretty traditional way of trading.
It's why technical analysis around resistance levels exists.
So if you were putting a gun to my head and say
what's going to happen i suspect we break through 4k a lot of people take profit stops get taken out
it retraces back you chop around at maybe 3.9 or 3.95 people go oh shit did we just make very small
new highs above 4k or not all-time highs but new highs and then we're coming right back and then
it will right when everyone's not positioned for it, go again.
And that's when it can potentially go.
And that's where you might get this, like, elevated move through.
I mean, you can kind of see it in the chart if you look
at the sideways chop between May and early July
when it was 2,400 to 2,800 for a long time.
It tested slightly higher, broke up, broke down,
broke up slightly higher, and then really took out stops
at the downside before it exploded higher
when we really saw this move.
It's that little period there at the end, yeah.
So I think you'll see some sort of similarities in the chart,
this is just my personal opinion, in this 4K level
that you'll see sort of tests and breaks, small chops,
and it will feel painful.
And then ultimately right when no one's positioned,
That was like 80 some days.
I mean, that was an extra painful one for sure.
And that sort of felt like,
like I certainly felt it at 2,200 when it slid back down.
It was like, oh great, here we go.
We're going back to 1,500 again.
Yeah. And this is the thing but to your point tyler i think like yeah we saw some pretty what
seemingly seem to be bearish news on the bitcoin whale wallets waking up and rotating and sending
to galaxy and i'm sure you guys should discuss that as well and then like the market just ate it up
again as to the institutional demand picture like there are willing buyers at those price levels
in any sort of style of execution, really.
And where do those funds flow?
It's a pretty long bonus stretch to say someone held that Bitcoin
all the way up from where they bought it to, what was it,
And that's just them cashing out and going to live on a beach,
I suspect,'s some rotation,
Maybe a bill goes to the beachfront mansion
and the rest goes into like Ethereum
I think all bull market runs have been,
we talk about the cycle of like Bitcoin
and Ethereum and alts move
and the waves that go through.
It's usually that stuff is related to like the profit taking
of the maxis holding Bitcoin and it leads
and then they make money.
So they rotate some of it out,
keep a core bag, rotate some into ETH,
And that's where you start to see the rotational price action.
And I think we've still got that to come.
So there's a bullish takeaway.
I like it. still got that to come. So there's a bullish takeover. I like it.
I'm curious for your Bitcoin point of view.
So I think Bob Lucas is one of the quants
that we follow on the show.
He said his weekly cycle analysis says
Bitcoin going to 120K, 140K in the next two to four weeks
before putting in a local top.
We have Udi on the other side of the spectrum
calling for 400K at the end of this year. to four weeks before putting in a local top we have udi on the other side of the spectrum calling
for 400k at the end of this year i mean some of those calls were like outlandish like six months
ago and now it's like 400k is like 350k is certainly not like a bizarre call for people to
make like four to six weeks is not my sort of wheelhouse. I think you're talking about human factors,
taking profit, flow of funds, people on holidays,
time of year, all of those sort of factors go in.
What I still lean on is institutional demand
to the selling pressure that we saw.
Institutional ongoing demand is not going to rotate out.
You'll have ETF outflows and everyone will freak out
because we're really short-term thinkers. But the reality is that happens every day in every other ETF. Inflows,
outflows, inflows, outflows. It's a net aggregate. What you're looking at is this asset being adopted
by more and more institutional investors. And what are we going to see over the next one year,
two years? We are going to see pension fund after pension fund after sovereign fund go we
need to have some exposure is it half a percent is it one percent but it's something something
versus zero yeah and these these institutions are getting bigger and bigger right yeah like
saudi sovereign wealth fund is you know billions if not trillions of dollars under management and
then you've got like canadian pension teachers pension fund or something, right?
Their investment remissed a lot slower.
They have to like do plenty of review.
The ETF may have had to exist for a couple of years before they can touch it or look at it.
All of those things start to fall.
So what I'm trying to get at is if those things we kind of agree
are highly likely, if not 100% likelihood of happening
at a pace that is hard to determine but slow
you kind of every dip is is an opportunity at this point it's just your tolerance for pain if
you want to go dip to 117 from here i'll buy are you prepared to wear it down to 110 because
maybe maybe bitcoin whales rotate even more so you just got to work out your tolerance for pain but
i don't see scenarios where this completely falls apart.
And then you've got the Genius Act
bringing stablecoin flows into the ecosystem,
which is just validation at the end of the day.
It helps everything become adopted,
but it's validation to the ecosystem overall.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and everything else in between.
who knows where the Trump administration
Like, do they go, right, we've got enough Bitcoin that we've seized
that we want to have more?
Same theory as, like, the Saudi Monetary Authority going
and buying some of the Canadian Teachers' Pension Fund.
These institutions need it in any sort of size.
This is flow of funds that is super meaningful
um and if you look at traditional financial markets the macro landscape people are tracking
that they're tracking flow of funds there's technical analysis entry points and
hedge fund positioning real money positioning but absolute like total net aggregate flow of funds
into currencies out of currencies into into commodities, out of commodities.
Are they holding hard assets, soft assets?
That's what macroeconomists talk about.
And Bitcoin is undoubtedly a macro instrument.
You can't call it anything else at this point in its life cycle.
So you have to trade it as such.
That makes a lot of sense. I think what I'm
perhaps most interested in right now
is this percent allocation from some of
these big funds. And I think we were
thinking it would be like
half percent, one percent, two percent
as adoption started to grow.
But now, and I'm getting a little
bulled up. We got Ray Dalio coming out and saying
he thinks it's 15% gold slash Bitcoin.
And he actually said he leans gold, but he understands that the younger generation leans more Bitcoin, which I think is our read as well.
It's got my wheels spinning.
Are we just going to blow past the 1% to 2% allocation and go straight to 5% to 10% plus?
I don't think it'll move as quickly as like Ray Dalio,
Gold Bull would probably publicly profess.
Like I think he's talking his book,
like every investor manager does that has a microphone and a pulpit.
Like I don't fault them for that.
Dropping my work does it.
Yeah, they're all going to do it. Does it blow past the 10 to 15 that quickly i don't think so just because of
like the structure of these sort of large asset allocators are usually so risk averse or cautious
with like how they scale into investments like when you're speaking to these guys and they're
making investment decisions,
it'll be like scaling into a position,
scaling back out a bit of a tweaking
and adjusting sort of what exposure looks like.
You've got to remember that they're responsible
to like matching and meeting market benchmarks.
So it's not, they're not your traditional
like directional guy who's like,
can I make outsized returns this year?
They're measured against like the benchmark
So BlackRock and asset allocators are measured against the market standard
and how much they beat that by.
They're not like, can I 4X the fund this year by going a little longer asset
or allocating more than I should.
It's like underweight and overweight measurements
versus the industry against them.
So will they blow past it maybe over time like it becomes a big enough representation of like an inflation
hedge that the exposure acts as like a risk balancer against the rest of their portfolio
such that they could have that exposure but i think that's many many years away
even if like bitcoin becomes a widely adopted means of currency
or means of holding value, it doesn't necessarily mean
you just need to hold 15% of your fund as that exposure.
They're not trying to beat.
They're not a hedge fund is kind of what I'm getting at.
But I'm sure plenty of crypto hedge funds and even traditional hedge funds
have dabbled in overexposure to Bitcoin versus what they would traditionally
think to do. They don't think about it like
percentage of fund allocation necessarily.
is that there's more by-pressure coming.
It might just be a few years down the line.
It's just always going to be there.
Yeah, that's interesting. Do you have any thoughts on
the Fed, Powell, and tomorrow's FOMC by any chance? I know that's tomorrow. Looks like a lot of people are excited about that. A lot of de-risking probably going on today. Are we going towards QE? Any rate cuts in the way or is that going to have to wait till September?
wait till september i think it's gonna have to wait till september um i actually think like
it's counterintuitive to think that trumpian pressure is going to lead to him acting like i
think almost at this point his legacy is resistance um 100 like all the memes and like him shaking
his head at the at the fed the other day when i'm talking about the building costs and stuff like
that at this point to back down would be such a like it almost lead to his removal in some ways i think
like it would lead to bipartisan support for like this guy's lost the plot he's he's letting himself
be pushed around by politics we agreed that wasn't what it was supposed to be so i don't think they
act tomorrow and all market pricing indicators are they don't. It would be a shocking surprise.
I mean, the stock market's close to, if not at all, time highs.
Like, what are they trying to, are they really trying to pump the stock market further?
Like, inflation depends on how you look at it and argue it.
Like, Trump records, it's coming down.
A lot of people, like, some metrics are saying it is.
But you have to be pretty careful with that sort of lagging indicator.
You can't just overact early.
Everything's super bulled up.
You need a pretty clear piece of economic data to indicate Americans are
struggling to really cut rates early like this.
Stock market's ridiculous, dude.
That's just nuts when you look at it it is ridiculous yeah and it keeps coming roaring back it's just what it does it's non-stop it's literally non-stop
anyways tal i know you had a couple more questions i just had to go there i was curious
we've been talking macro bitcoin i'm curious if we go down the risk curve a little bit i think
the last time you're on, we talked about hype.
So you were back to hype.
I'm very curious, were you involved in the pump trade
and or just thoughts on the fallout
and now trading so far below the ICO level,
how that might be impacting the broader salon ecosystem,
the meme ecosystem, if you have any thoughts on that.
I think like a lot of projects,
this is not Pump specific or anything like that.
I'll probably avoid commenting directly on Pump itself,
but a lot of projects launching through this window of the summer,
the sense I'm getting is there's like a rushed launch.
I think it's a mix of projects that have been waiting to launch
through like even last year.
And then towards the end of last year, there was a tiny window between like December and
mid-January, late January, where you kind of could get to market and some things were
There was obviously hype launched around then and did really well.
And then you had other things that didn't do so well through that period.
I really do feel like the last few weeks, there's been a little bit of like muted interest
in new launches, including Pump,
like the headline grabbing ICO level
and the amount that people went into it
And like it catches short-term attention,
but what's the like follow-on effect?
I think markets are maturing towards this like revenue meta
that people have talked about
where we're looking for businesses
that are actually generating returns.
I mean, it sounds like a crazy thought,
but we're probably trending if that continues in the direction
of like measuring the readiness of token projects to launch
on like a price earnings sort of basis, right?
Like how much is your revenue like generating
for the token holders at the end of the day and so
working out this regulatory piece of how that revenue flows back to token holders is going to
be important and then it will put pressure on the projects to be like when you launch a token
it has to be a not the product like that's really the problem token being the product and b there
has to be some mechanism where the token holders are rewarded for holding the token against the
revenues of the business they're essentially investing in it sounds crazy but
that's pretty much how equity markets work um and i know we feel like we're reinventing the wheel in
so many different ways but i mean there's a reason that that the world works the way it works in
traditional financial markets there's a lot of broken things it kind of reminds me i may have
used this analogy before but of like the taxi industry.
Like we didn't create Uber and then stop taking taxis.
The taxi industry was forced to get better.
It's kind of the same thing.
We created Uber came along with this app.
You had like better ways to get out of the club.
You could pay overs and surge pricing and stuff.
And that's an improvement, but we didn't just delete taxis or
the concept of taxis they just had to make apps and get better and offer you booking services and
stuff like that i think that's really the way this will probably go as well so um pumped up fun
yeah i think it's disappointed a lot of people's probably a lot of ways to go they raised a lot
of money and they're going to show what they're going to do with it um that that story has been shown to turn things around before so it's not dead in the water um the hype trade the hype interest is
certainly still there um as venue goes they've done a lot of the right things they've resisted a
lot of you know flak bud attacks whatever you want to call it throughout so um pretty bullish on on
what they're building over there in the ecosystem as well. And then you've got players like Athena.
Combining the treasury play in,
but like a revenue business, right?
Like you're now getting traditional financial markets,
access to a stable coin play
on a revenue generating business.
Cool like financial wizardry, I guess in some ways.
Onboarding new users in a way, right?
Yeah, we have our own little one that we like at Rekt over here on the show. like financial wizardry, I guess in some ways. Yeah. Onboarding new users in a way, right? Yeah.
We have our own little one that we like at Rekt over here on the show.
they've been revenue generating.
Rent $500 million this weekend.
Is the really cool thing about Rekt is you can't like fake drinks. No, you can't, the thing about Rekt, right, is, the really cool thing about Rekt is, you can't
a PowerPoint presentation and be like,
there's a drink. Because people will be like,
of companies in the crypto space
can get by on a really flashy deck
and this is the road map and this is where we're going.
If you're making physical cans and people have to buy them and drink them
then buy more of them pretty easy to make up.
And so to see that translate into 500 million FBV.
but quick question for you on the treasury codes,
like as market makers in the industry on the AORUS side,
obviously you guys are some of the bigger ones.
Do you guys take any positions in all that?
Do you partake in the regular
stock market? What's your thoughts?
Just curious, because that's kind of been
the biggest thing lately.
I mean, Faruk, you've met Jules.
Involved, invested in Myriad through you guys,
and I can't really speak to exactly the composition of his portfolio,
but we do speak to a number of projects around this space
around looking at allocations there and getting exposure there.
One thing I would say is we are still at our DNA,
a market maker and liquidity provider.
We're trying not to be like leverage long sold necessarily
or leverage long any token Delta directionally.
So we're really just making sure that we're providing liquidity
on both sides of the market and that's how our trading strategies work.
But our ventures arm sits separate to that by its very design
so that we can express views on early stage projects that we like, like Miriam, for example.
And the treasury strategy sort of can fall into that wheelhouse,
and I know our Ventures team looks at those things very, very closely.
We see them spinning out every day, right?
We mentioned this morning as we want.
So I've got a question for you guys on that.
Do you think that the market will question for you guys on that. Like, do you think,
do you think that the market will A,
Or B, do you think there's like systemic risk
if too many of these things come out?
I don't know if I've formed an opinion yet.
A lot of people love to say,
oh, top, like, you know, so many cars.
But I don't think people,
I think people underestimate how much money is on wall street.
Now we talked about it with Mando, like, like it's like $400 trillion.
Like, it was like, it's like a hundred X crypto.
Every shit coin, I guess a treasury company would get further down that top curve, that top signal, but.
I worry about like the top.fund version, right?
Where like everyone is doing one and there's 10 of each.
Like I do think like micro strategy,
buys and holds and just keeps going.
Micro strategy, whatever that call it is now.
But like how many ETH ones can we do?
Now ETH, bigger market cap, bigger exposure. Sure, you can have a few of them. But then you go to Solano and you do like, how many how many eth ones can we do now it's bigger market cap bigger exposure
sure you can have a few of them but then you go to solano and you're like how many can you do and
then you do further and further down eventually we're doing 5 000 of these things and it's like
oh guys we just fragmented the liquidity again that wasn't the best idea kind of the same problem
we had we pumped up find everyone launching a token every three seconds yeah i mean i don't
know what your thoughts are on this tyler, but we talk about this often, right?
I think we share similar views.
I've been thinking a lot about it.
I've been reading a lot about it.
I think Nick Carter shared some comparison
to this trust product in the 1920s,
right before the Great Depression,
where folks were also paying 2 to 3 to 5x premiums
And then it got to the point where it was mania
and there was 1,000 launching every day.
It does feel like that is kind of what's happening.
I think I try to, like on an individual level,
I think like the big players are still fairly safe.
I feel like Joe Lubin, Tom Lee, Saylor's products
aren't going to just blow up.
I would say there has some debt he's taking on.
The others aren't really taking on as much debt as I understand it right now.
But the downstream effects,
so I think like $90 billion has been raised in the last quarter for these
So you do start to ask them the question.
So does that mean there's less
capital for other true protocols yeah is there less capital for builders does that mean the
space is going to stagnate a bit and then is there also just less capital perhaps going into
some of the underlying assets following around the rest of the ecosystem so i think there's
there's a lot to think through.
I think my gut is we're still early on before like pure mania,
the pace is accelerating.
So like today I rattled off a new sweet corporate treasury for half a billion.
B and B for half a billion.
We had the Doge court in the first Doge coin one came out a couple of weeks
ago. And the game square got into NFTs Dogecoin one came out a couple weeks ago.
The GameSquare got into the NFTs, so the
NFTs ones are starting to come.
I think it's something to keep a close eye on.
because everyone's got the same underlying
unease about it, is it one
I think you're right. Saylor and Luben
and the OG names that have brand behind
them will like resist the storm but i worry about like is this like a one house of cards sort of
thing where the under like the undermining of the thesis for one random shit coin treasury strategy
will just go hold on a second this is not not going to work for next token 85 on the list
That's what makes me a bit worried because I think if you're doing
them on an individual, like how they manage basis
and how much exposure they have and measuring them independently,
sure, one can go and the rest will stay.
But if it's a fundamental concept being questioned,
it could really rock all of them simultaneously,
which could be rocky for sure.
Yeah, I think that's the bare case for how it can implode.
Like, I'm really bullish on, again, I've said before,
but, like, Athena or, like, other revenue-generating businesses,
and I've heard of a few guys looking at it that actually have like real revenue in their businesses.
And they're looking at ways to create these vehicles where TradFi can participate in that revenue because that's what they like.
They like being connected to token price.
And if you're using that treasury vehicle to acquire the token and keep it off the market and reduce the supply,
I like what Athena is essentially saying they're going to do. Pretty cool,
pretty cool possibilities of accessing TradFi and getting TradFi what they want,
Interesting. I love that. Some good takes here, Jason. Can't wait to see you again.
Yeah, I'll try and mix it up a bit next time.
Be a bit more bullish at the start and bearish at the end or something.
Yeah, I mean, the whole time you've been talking, Mark is dumping.
So we need you to be more bullish.
I haven't even been watching.
We need to get more bullish here, Jason.
I think this was some great takes.
We're going to make some nice clips and excited to see what comes next.
Yeah, we're going to see you at Nager
Korea Blockchain Week, for sure.
And then Tokyo 24 tonight in Singapore.
Hopefully, we'll run the event back.
Tyler, are you coming out this time?
We've got to get Tyler out to Asia at least once.
I was trying to lock him into a commitment on live stream.
Tyler's got kids and wife at home.
You live in Asia, though.
Oh, yeah, quick is Singapore is off the map for everyone like that's just no matter
where you live you're far from singapore unless maybe you're in australia uh but i mean
that's kind of secretly hoping to move to hong kong so that i can travel even less
yeah i know hong kong's tokens too much of a draw card you should come out tyler it's good week
it's a big crypto week, always.
You got to get permission. Do a lot of fun.
You would love it, Tyler, because also penguins and stuff go big in Asia.
Huge, always abstract, pudgy penguins, all that stuff.
It's always some big stuff over there.
Well, thank you, Jason, for coming.
It's time to give us some money, though.
For those of you who – thanks for coming, Jason.
For those of you who stuck around and saw the quote on screen, because, yeah, we do – we'd always shout it.
Because I'm not going to cut Jason and be like, yo, that's the code.
The code was ETH on Yeterboards.com, ETH, E-T-H.
Sims, let's give away some money.
Let's get that wheel spinning.
And let's see who's going to play some Lamp Shop with us today.
they are here where do you see them
is pornstar yeet your alt
yeah i think so they were saying
they're your biggest fans.
Okay, you see the comments?
Okay, so I'll let you guys read the comments for me while I play for them.
Golden Glory, let's play some Lamb Chop.
Selfishly picking Lamb Chop.
I just really want to play Lamb Chop.
I'll leave it to you, Tyler.
Golden Glory, tell us your difficulty you want to play on.
Yeah, you know the vibes.
That's for sure, for sure, for sure.
You locked five on a box.
You get two rounds of 250.
You get to pick what difficulty you want to play on.
Do you guys still see my screen, Tyler?
Well, he gets two runs, so you can play the next round easy. I like that. All right. 250 on very hard. Well, he gets two runs, so you can play the next one on easy.
So I think he says medium for the next one.
Let's give him a second to pick in case.
And then Golden Glory, do you want to keep...
Do you want to try to run into the tracks or do you want to do this one by one here?
You can go ahead and do the first drop. First drop? I'll meet him right? Yep. Let me lower the sound
Come on, come on, come on. It's buggy man. I don't like this man. Oh
I guess I don't know what you want to do here.
Do we want to try to run to the tracks? To the tracks.
Yeah, to the tracks. Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. Boom. We're so Wait, Mendo's texting us right now. Get his ass on here, bro. Where you at, Mendo?
We got to figure out why. All right, calm down, chat.
All right, what do you want to do?
Now you got a real decision on your hands.
Or you can go for $2,100.
Let's kind of put this in perspective.
If he walked away now, that would be $2,73.
But if he goes for it, $2 banked if he walked away now that'd be 2,073 but if he goes
for it to the barn 2,700 if you get one more 2k won't say it's an insane what does that mean
does that mean cash out or go oh wait does it does it mean cash cash? Do you want a cat? Do you want a cash cash or go very simple cash or go?
He's very clear he wants to catch
Make our calls. Let's make our calls sims Tyler. Where do we think this was going? I
Think this kills Tyler says the three K's the killer. I think this will kill you. I really do. Do you think this kills? Tyler says the 3K is the killer.
I say this one's on a 10K.
Oh, I could have made it a little more.
But hey, congratulations.
Going for the tracks on medium after losing the first round,
that required a lot of cojones.
So Golden Glory, I mean, yo, his name.
Congratulations on making $2,100 on this morning's show.
And with that, with that, with that,
we'll see you all tomorrow morning.
And back with the great Mando, 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time
for another episode of FOMO Hour on ROG Radio.
Let's go. Thank you. oh One second, let me end the show, one second