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FOMO HOUR: MARKETS, OIL DUMP, IRAN, DAILY NEWS
Recorded: March 10, 2026 Duration: 0:56:39Space Recording
Full Transcription
Music I'll get you.
I'll get you.
Perfect.
Yep.
And kick it, Charlie. Thank you. I'm going to be here. but another beautiful day uh beautiful day i got my co-host in the house tyler good morning
how are you doing today i'm good woke up to some surprising grief on the board in my head i thought
today was going to be red i was prepared for that so a little bit surprised we're reversing now
but in good spirits to start the tuesday Yeah. I mean, you know,
consolidating the last
cycle is not too bad either.
This is what this range has been doing
for a little bit now.
It's also not, you know,
I'd rather that than consolidating the 50s.
Not going to jinx it.
Knock on wood, of course.
But the market could be much worse.
Let's just put it that way.
Considering the geopolitical situation of the world,
I think we could be in a much worse situation.
Which?
Which, which, which, which, which, which?
Speaking of which, we are going to be talking about that on the show today
as we go through markets.
It looks like CT once again
murdered an asset class.
You know.
What do you guys want to hit next?
I asked CT yesterday.
What's next? What do we hit next?
And someone commented Taylor Swift. I'm like, jeez.
I was thinking that
too. What's the next meta
to pop off on Hyperloop? Is it going to be like
uranium?
We've hit precious metals,
oil. We've kind of hit the stocks too, right?
We're kind of running out of asset classes.
It would have hit by now.
We perma-topped
copper, that's for sure.
Good question, Tyler.
I wish, you see,
I wish eggs was on hyperliquid back then
when it had his big run.
That would have been a fun one, for example.
Like some shit like that.
Like a food produce.
That could be a fun one to top next.
It'll come.
It'll come.
Someone tweeted,
every time you see a non-crypto asset
in the top five hyperliquid in volume and OI, short that.
Yeah, that's a good indicator for me.
It's like when you see the Bloomberg article about that asset trading on hyperliquid, you're within 12 hours at the top.
And by the way, let me make something clear.
This has nothing to do with hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid is doing amazing because at the end of the day,
hype is the winner.
So it doesn't matter.
You could own hype throughout all this and never worry about these tops,
bottoms, and markets.
Anyways, today's show, markets, news.
Geek giveaway, of course, at the end of the show.
I think today's a silver as well.
Yeah, regular spin, silver plus $250 volume.
So yeet.com, sign up using the code FOMOHOUR
if you want to have a chance to win
one of every single day of the week.
And then this show, this show, this show,
you can see it on the bottom banner
is powered by Walrus.
Walrus is a verifiable data platform
for builders in AI and on-chain finance.
As these systems handle more money and decisions, the more mission-critical this data foundation
becomes. To learn more, visit walrus.xyz. Mr. Tyler, let's go. For daily NFT and crypto analysis.
Tyler T on FOMO hour calls the kid
can't miss.
Folks, it's a
green morning out there, at least for crypto
enthusiasts. We've got Bitcoin up 1.5%,
$69,990, right
at that $70K level. We have
ETH up 1%, $20,30.
Solana up 1% at $86 percent at 86 notably this comes as stocks
are red so the nasdaq down about 0.1 the dow's down 0.3 oil the story of the last few days it
went all the way to 115 well it fell 30 percent uh was back below 85 briefly last night i'm seeing
it at 87 70 right now still down 8% on the day.
So oil has sold off significantly.
Gold is rallying too.
So precious metals are up.
Gold's up 2%.
Silver up 5%.
Copper right in the farm zone at 594.
I feel like every time I check copper's prices, it's 594.
So that's where that is.
Going through some of the headlines here.
NASDAQ teaming up with Kraken's parent to launch tokenized stock trading on their X-Stocks framework. Covered that is. Going through some of the headlines here. NASDAQ teaming up with Kraken's parent to launch tokenized
stock trading on their X-Stocks framework.
Covered that yesterday. The U.S. Treasury,
this was an interesting one. The U.S. Treasury
has come out and identified legitimate
use cases for crypto mixers
in a major tone shift
on privacy in the crypto space. That's going to be
a big one to watch. Arthur Hayes
published his Hype Man thesis on Monday, calling
Hype the highest quality product in all
crypto,
setting his
150 price target.
Polymarket has
the US recession
odds.
They went to
41% yesterday,
down to 29%
now.
But then another
Polymarket breaking
headline before the
show,
they've tapped
Palantir to help
police their markets.
Didn't see that
one coming.
so we'll get into
that.
Watch out.
Insiders, Palantirters coming for you right now.
We also had some breaking news out of Elon.
The X money, his new money platform integrated with Twitter, is going to launch next month.
So that is coming.
In some of the treasury news, Bitcoin ETFs, 167 million in net inflows yesterday.
So that was positive.
ETH had outflows. million in net inflows yesterday. So that was positive.
ETH had outflows.
Stretch set a massive record yesterday.
They moved 2.4 million shares, enough capital to buy 1,360 Bitcoin.
That broke the record by about 30%. So that was a huge day.
It's off to a fast start again today.
Sharple Gaming did their earnings.
They shared a $734 million loss tied to Ethereum's decline.
So not a huge surprise there.
In token air drop and protocol news, it was a lighter day.
We did have Zcash up 8% to 9% after Zcash open development lab,
which is formed by their former ZEK engineers.
After that January governance dispute,
they've raised $25 million to keep building the ZEK protocol
and the Zotal self-custodial wallet.
So ZEK was a big winner on the day.
Memes.
Meme leaders were actually outpacing crypto majors this morning.
They were pretty much up 5% to 7% across the board.
On-chain, it was Meachie, Ark, and Shape leading top movers.
And NFTs, NFT leaders were flat.
Pudgy Penguins did announce Pudgy World,
their new free-to-play browser game, officially live.
I think it was pretty cool.
And then Gandhi did share more details about their export.
They also took a lot of steps to make impact users whole.
So perhaps some nice resolution on that.
And that's our roundup.
That's quite a roundup.
Wow.
I mean, Marcus-wise, it's not like we have a ton to cover.
Marcus pumped yesterday.
Is it the taco?
Is it the Trump tacos, the headline of the day?
I don't even know if that's the right term for what's perhaps happening,
but I think Marcus started to jump last night when Trump came out and said
he thinks the war may be over sooner than they had previously thought,
perhaps even sooner than the four to five weeks.
So I think that was driving some of it last night,
but I feel like they're also kind of talking out of both sides of their
mouth.
And it seems like anytime like Iran says something,
Hexeth comes out and says something else.
So it doesn't feel like we're in the clear by any means i think you
and i were chatting before the show looks like some new weapons are perhaps being introduced i
saw the theory that they're going to start taking out the electric grid perhaps for uh boots on the
ground mission to go get the uranium this is a little bit above my pay grade um but i did see
that theory going around.
Crypto's been pretty volatile since the open.
We're kind of right at that.
We keep getting rejected off 70, it seems.
But when crypto's green with stocks red,
it does seem like a little bit of a shift.
I know we're still in the range.
I've got my optimism, my bull hat on.
I still feel like the vibes have shifted a little bit.
I love it.
And I think it's Mike Saylor who's doing.
It's like, I mean, how are you?
I mean, clearly there are some big sellers out there because he took like 17,000 Bitcoin off the market last week
and we're still kind of in the zone.
But he bought 1.28 billion last week.
He set new records with stretch.
So this is going to be another big week.
You know,
he's buying,
I think stretch is going to have their,
their next payout is like March 15th.
So a lot of folks expecting it to continue to trade high volume,
at least until the 15th,
perhaps it cools off then.
yeah. Who's selling here? I guess. Perhaps it cools off then. Yeah.
Who's selling here, I guess?
I mean, I guess the question is who's buying.
Yeah.
The whales.
It's a limited amount of Bitcoin, these lads.
The Winklevoss twins seem to be selling.
So there are plenty of sellers out there.
But ETF screen, big day for stretch.
Some positive signs for Bitcoin, at least in the near term.
There's a lot.
Yeah, it's a lot.
I wish we could see a chart of the Bitcoin sellers, like the OG.
I'm zoomed out.
I think one of them sold last week
or the week before
like $1.2 billion worth.
It was just proof that it's another...
There's more sellers than buyers.
Right.
Yeah, I haven't seen
one of the large seller charts in a while.
I imagine they're still unloading.
Since that early February sell-off
when we went to 60,
I'm looking at the Bitcoin chart now.
All I see is higher lows.
Ooh, if you squint real hard here.
62, then 63, then 65.
Where did we hit this last one
with 65.5 roughly?
I think I meant to have new lines.
These are the lines that I put on
like months ago.
And I don't know if they really,
they're not a good representation of this range.
Let me just delete all this.
Let's start over.
Oh, we haven't updated the lines in months on this show.
Yeah.
Well, they're still holding for the most part.
So yeah, they've been holding.
I didn't really have to change them.
So what are we saying?
We're saying 60, what's the bottom of this range? 60. I didn't really have to change them. So what are we saying? We're saying 60.
What's the bottom of this range?
I haven't seen many people.
It's like 63.
Okay.
Yeah, that looks right.
Is it?
Right.
I would put bottom of the range around here on the daily.
Let's switch over to the four-hour chart.
Okay.
Yeah, that checks out, right?
Bounces here, bounce here, bounce here.
So around 60...
Actually, we've seen 63K a lot, Tyler.
So let's call it $63,000
bottom of the range.
625.
What's your top range?
Is it 73 or is it 70?
I think it's 70, right?
Where's that on the chart?
That's where we can get rejected.
Where we just topped again.
So that could make sense, yeah?
They just recently did it again.
So yeah, you're right.
It's like, yeah, it's a 70, yeah?
71-ish, no?
Whoops.
That's a fake one.
So let's do that for now.
Let's call this our range.
The mando maybe has different levels,
but it should be similar to that
because he was long after 71K break, right?
Last week.
That's when he went long.
Because that was actually a range break.
That's what he was talking about, right?
So it was really here.
Okay.
That adds up, Ty.
So you're using higher lows.
Yeah, here.
It's true.
You're right.
You're right.
If you squint, I'm squinting pretty hard these days.
Wait, let's squint. Oh, man. Everybody squint, I'm squinting pretty hard these days. Let's squint.
Oh, man.
Everybody squint.
Everybody squint at the same time.
Yeah.
It's not bad.
This is a special episode of Dumb and Dumber Do TA.
Just need our yellow lines
to hold.
Our yellow line will hold
all the cell walls.
Dumb and Dumber do TA.
I love this.
Yeah, I mean, look, you're right.
I mean, we did bottom around 60K that one time here.
62K here, 63K on the strikes.
And then 65K this weekend.
So you're right.
I mean, I noticed that as well.
It's like 60, 62, 63, 65.
Perhaps this next time is going to be around
67-something
and then we'll finally make a push up towards
the higher 70s.
That's probably not off the table.
I think we're going to break 70
again this week.
We kind of did this morning.
I feel like Saylor typically buys
Wednesday, Thursday. He's going to have a lot of
ammo this week. It should be enough to push us through unless we really sell off today.
I would love to push to like here, like 76, 7.
I mean, if we get past the last high, then I think people will be going gangbusters.
Yeah, this one, right?
So this is where we broke down here.
It was 74, right?
It was really this one here. So this is where we broke down here. It was 74, right? It was really this one here.
So this is where we're at, really.
And then above this, then you're really thinking the low 80s, right?
That's what Mando was kind of chatting about.
I'll be thinking 250 if we break 70.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Break 74.
We're thinking 250.
Yeah, there's a decent air up there.
Near term, we have CPI, I think, coming tomorrow.
So perhaps we'll like...
How are we getting close to that, though?
The war is tough, eh?
Yeah.
And also, does it even matter?
Because the bigger deal is oil and inflation coming from that and gas prices.
I forgot about the live report last Friday.
When you told me on the show there was a report,
like I usually am tapped in.
I kind of know what's going on because it's a show.
I clocked out because the overarching geopolitical issue
that's going on right now is so important.
So Trump's speech yesterday seemed to be bullish if you owned cryptocurrency, but bearish if you copy traded cooker flips.
So Trump's speech yesterday seemed to be bullish
if you owned cryptocurrency,
And I saw the timeline.
Yeah, I thought that was funny.
And long crude oil with what a blow off.
I mean, what a blow off top here.
That is crazy on quite a large cap asset.
If we go really from the pico, pico, pico, shmeeko top,
like the real top, it was like 119.
Why can't I?
Why is this not working?
I'm trying to.
So it was about 20% dip.
I see Amanda in the studio.
Bom dia.
Bom dia. What you eating? from that. Oh, I see Mando in the studio. Bom Gia. Bom Gia.
What you eating?
Turkey.
Tomato.
TLT.
Turkey, lettuce, tomato?
Yeah, but turkey is like bacon.
You know?
I've been saying tomato too because of you and Danny
and Ovi and stuff.
I love seeing tomato.
I don't know.
It's just fun.
It's like I don't say garage anymore.
I say garage.
Everyone always laughs at me because that's what Danny says.
It's the tux meme, right?
You say tomato.
You've got the tux on.
Exactly.
The ween and the poo.
It's not betting.
It's predicting.
Same thing.
So, man, we were just talking about the market and Bitcoin and stuff,
but, you know, not much to say.
We kind of went over it.
We're still rage-bound here.
Rejected 70K this morning.
We'll see where we go.
But now we're just talking about CT's very own crude oil.
Came on the show yesterday, talked about that.
It was a hilarious clip, by the way.
And here we are, 32%, 32% dip from the top, which went about to slightly above $80 now, about $88.
We're talking about how yesterday it's in Iran's best interest that oil remains above 100.
And it kind of just broke down there.
I don't think we have more news, right?
It was on the news that Greek tankers just said, fuck it, we're going through the Strait of Hormuz.
I think six of more news, right? It was on the news that Greek tankers just said, fuck it, we're going through the Strait of Hormuz. I think six of them made it through.
I found out yesterday that Greeks actually own the most tankers or something.
They're really in charge of that industry.
I didn't know that.
Anyone who's Greek and wealthy owns some form of shipping business.
Dude, it's impressive.
I mean, these people respect the Greeks.
They've been running the seas since thousands of years, by the way.
And so this billionaire said, fuck it, we're going through the Strait of Hormuz.
And he had six ships go through.
So basically what they were doing is they were turning off the radars as they go through and turning them back on through.
And then somebody picked up on that.
And I saw the post on Twitter.
And I was like, damn, this is going to go lower.
And this kind of started going viral.
And then the whole market collapsed.
So again, you can get quite some...
Depends who you follow and what you see,
but there is some information
asymmetry out there.
What do we think?
The Greeks, I used to trade banks
and often you would do ship financing.
Interesting.
They were always owned by Greeks or Albanians.
Chad.
Yeah, sometimes the ships aren't used for what they're intended to be used for.
Let me put it that way.
There was a lot of oil and a lot of narcotics on Greek ships
when the Russian war started,
the Ukraine war started.
They're no people getting around saying
it's the Greeks.
Malaka, what do you mean?
I have this on my boat.
George Prokopiu,
his ships defy the missiles
in the Strait of Hormuz
as Onassis and Nyarkos,
wow, these are really Greek names,
a lie, once did,
writes the Wall Street Journal.
And so this is the stat that I saw.
So Greece, the three-nation control fleet.
So it's really Greece, China, and Japan.
But Greece really has a lot of vessels.
5,124 vessels.
So it's less than China, but their carrying capacity is higher.
It's about 16.4% of the world's total.
So that's impressive for half the amount of ships.
One thing I would say is you never really know who owns these things.
Yeah, no, never.
It's like a refus company and then it like…
Well, there's shells, right?
A lot of these boats are owned by shells.
There's only shells in shipping.
It's crazy.
I knew about this because in France there was a scandal when there was an oil tanker.
I think, remember 20 years ago,
there was one that was really bad in Europe.
It was a BP, I forgot what it was,
but the name was a tanker was led back
to a French couple or something.
But it was a shell of a shell of a shell of a shell
of a shell of a shell shell.
It was one of these things.
Yeah.
So that's right.
But anyways, what do we think of oil here lads we buy in the dip
tyler now we're just talking about how even though trump's speech alluded to this being done sooner
we're seeing crazy type of weapons being used we're not seeing any destiny escalation whatsoever
in effect we're not hearing about any conversations we're not hearing about any
peace talks even though he has spoken to Putin apparently.
What do we make of that?
I mean, we spoke about it yesterday.
I don't think Iran is going to go for peace that quickly here.
Genuinely.
I think they'd rather draw this out as long as they can.
That's not correct.
Yeah.
They want, they... As I said to you before, like, you kill everyone who you're negotiating with.
I don't think that necessarily means that the next crew
just immediately negotiate here.
So are we longing oils?
Are we buying the debt?
I still think it's a two-month war.
Okay.
Okay.
I see. Tyler, are we get in a hyperliquid
I'm not going to jump in the oil
trade but I think if you think it lasts two months
it has oil has to
grind higher right
it depends like um mainly it's not like iran used to be able to threaten to i mean so the strait of hormuz
if you bring it up on a map this it's just very narrow bit of land, and
one side is pretty much all Iran, and the
other side is all the Gulf nations, so it's
Bahrain, UAE,
Saudi,
Amman.
they could still,
there's a lot of land there which Iran could launch
attacks from, but
there's just such high military superiority here
that Trump is in some way calling their bluff and saying,
look, we think we'll be able to defend these ships.
And obviously they've moved two of their aircraft carriers
and I think another one's coming to be in that body of water.
And I don't know where the UK aircraft carrier is coming,
but maybe they'd be sent there. And I don't know where the UK aircraft carrier is coming, but maybe they'd be sent there.
I actually don't know.
There's only so many countries with aircraft carriers,
just to be clear as well.
The French one, I think it's made its way.
The UK one only operates 9 to 5 Monday to Friday,
so I think they were having one of the public.
I know.
The UK is a big joke, but I don't know.
I think the UK one is being sent to Cyprus, but the,
I don't know whether which one's being sent,
but they're going to try and defend that area.
And that almost becomes the new battleground there.
If the ships are allowed.
The other thing that the UK kind of did,
which really pissed off Trump is Lloyd of London,
which is the biggest insurance uh broker
in the world for shipping they said look we're not going to insure uh chips through the straight
of all moves and as far as i'm aware i think trump just said okay fuck you guys we're going
to find somebody else and they have found another insurance company to insure vessels through the Strait of Ormuz now.
But that was another reason why he was really annoyed
at the British last week.
So it's dangerous, clearly.
The range of attacks that Iran could do is less
because they don't have ships.
So it would be kind of like how the Houthis
were attacking vessels
as they tried to go through the Suez Canal.
But it's still credible in my eyes.
I just, again, I just kind of go back to this idea
that I think Iran wants to see more damage.
So even though they know they've lost,
they've already lost the military fight like this
it's pretty clear it's like a bit of a joke at this stage i think they're going to hold up a
little longer i don't know i'm seeing some people on instagram claim that uh iran is winning this
war uh but um anyways i have a question for you guys i mean i don't know if you guys saw this but But Shah. Yeah, let's go there. AI16Z Shah, who seemingly, I'm not sure I get him,
but he wants to bet me $10,000.
I don't know why, by the way.
It came out of nowhere.
It was pretty aggressive, but I may be down for this.
Although I can't be bothered to entertain a bet, but whatever.
I don't want people to think I can't afford a $10,000 bet either.
So I'm kind of stuck between a rock and a wall here.
I told him that the Islamic Republic
doesn't stand a chance
and will fold.
Yeah.
And he quote tweeted me right away,
like seconds later,
saying,
I will bet you $10,000
that oil prices
double from where they are today.
So it was about $86
when he said that
before the Iranian regime folds.
I mean,
I think you both are kind of right.
That's not
what you said.
What I would say is that's not what you said.
The Islamic Republic doesn't
tell us how it will fold. They need to let their
ends be free. I would agree
that that is going to happen.
What he says may still happen like on what i just
said right like they may still want to try and cause some damage on the way out here like so
i mean he's convinced that the iran will will bankrupt the usa that's kind of where it's going
so they don't want to make a deal the The whole idea is bankrupting. If you listen to anything from them, it's spelled out very clearly.
They're in the business of sending.
Yeah.
Everyone mentions this 50K for 4 million thing.
I don't think that's going to be.
It's a banger tagline.
But what I would agree with his sentiment around that is that, yeah, there is a fundamentalist aspect to this where Iran doesn't necessarily, and quite rightly, doesn't want to make an early deal, even though they're losing.
Well, the thing is also, what does fold mean?
So I asked him because I'm kind of down to take it.
But the thing is, we need to really think about what folding means.
Is folding a ceasefire on Trump's terms?
Is it the regime falling apart?
Is it a new leader appointed by President Trump?
Is it them returning the enriched 400 kilograms of uranium and access to the street?
The term fold is tough, right?
It's going to be a
hard one to think also this the market could stay open for 20 years the regime could stay on forever
if the terms of that folding means the regime doesn't stop and also oil could just never hit
180 so it's an interesting one because like i think i think the iranian regime is weak in all
scenarios here.
Like, even if there is a deal made,
let's say there's a deal made with the IRGC plus whichever cleric is chosen.
It may just be with the IRGC.
Iran is in a world of pain.
Like, it doesn't have that good access to water, electricity.
It's faced tons of protests before this.
Like, I don't think the regime survives in any scenario here,
even if a deal is made with the regime.
That's my gut.
So I don't know if Trump just goes, hey, yeah, look, we'll do a deal,
but you have to give up all the enriched uranium and you have to sign a deal that says a deal like you are not going to produce nuclear threats.
The unconditional surrender bit is the bit where I think he's slightly he's doing a bit of you know i'm it's
how to make a deal like you know how it goes he goes to like the maximum possible
and then the other side freaks out and then you come you come somewhere not close to that i don't
think you're going to get an unconditional surrender deal here but just the fact that
he's saying that means that iran's like well we'll do that, but we might do this.
And I think that's kind of where he's trying to get the deal at.
So I actually think this will end up being a deal where they can both say that they somehow have some victories.
But I don't think Trump necessarily, it's so weak, the regime, in its current form.
Like, particularly if sanctions stay on afterwards.
Yeah, I don't think it's in a good spot.
Yeah, you kind of went there, Frodo.
There's a chance that neither side of the bet even hits.
I'm looking at this. This is right.
Claude's telling me that the oil has never even hit
170. The highest it's ever been is 140.
140. Yeah.
140 was the height.
Something about breaking the house by over 20%.
That seems pretty unlikely.
And then someone in the comments is like,
I mean, you could hedge, right?
You could hedge this bet.
Well, that's what I'm thinking.
I think I'd take the bet for the fuck of it
and then just fucking hedge it,
and I'll bet whatever, you know,
a long oil.
At this stage, if we go back above, like,
a certain price, like, you know,
that shit's going to run it back.
Yeah,
definitely.
There's an easy way
to make that bet
for cheaper.
Let me go that way.
I mean,
let me know,
Shaw,
we can,
we can take the bet
as long as,
you know,
we can use Myriad Markets
to PVP a market around it,
like KBM and Mando did.
So as long as we use Myriad,
you know, I'm, I KBM and Mando did. As long as we use Myriad, I'm not
necessarily against it. I'm just
really needing to define what folding means.
My team and I were talking about this morning.
What does it mean? How do you define folding?
So anyways,
anyways,
what else is going on over here?
Oh, let's talk about
the Palantir thing.
Now, we're on prediction markets, Tyler.
That's an interesting one.
How about that?
Huh?
Let me find this.
So I saw this tweet.
Palantir now being used by Polymarket to help police their prediction markets.
Didn't see this one coming, necessarily.
As I read into this,
the story from Bloomberg says it's going to be their sports contract
specifically,
which is actually not the niche.
I thought that they would be focusing on.
I would have thought they would be focused in Paul geopolitics and war
markets.
But it looks like they're going to be focused first up on sports measures
include screening against lists of participants already banned from sports betting.
So I guess the substance of this seems like they're more
kind of helping protect the book against, like, sharps, perhaps,
and then perhaps folks who aren't legally allowed to bet.
Well, they're saying it's insider trading.
If it's PVP, if it's truly pvp you should be you should allow you should allow sharps to bet right right if they're not allowing sharps to bet it says that they are somehow on the loss they're
somehow making the markets themselves and they are are probably markets going and Calcio trying to go out of their way
to be like, no, no, no, we're not the ones making the markets.
Can't have both.
It's already coming out this weekend.
The market makers are showing their list of people that they're not betting with.
Oh, really? Wow.
Yeah.
So they're effectively evolving into limiting sharps in some of these markets.
That's pretty funny, in my opinion, because you can't claim that you're not a sports book and then limit who can use your thing.
If it's purely PvP, if it's truly like a dex where you're against somebody else, you should be able to take action from anyone.
you're against somebody else should be able to take action from anyone
yeah for example if you are a sports syndicate yeah we will limit you because
we don't want to lose dollars to some of these syndicates that are have sharp i mean you can be sharp in many different ways but often it's insider information
or or it's better information non-public information that that allows you to do it
um and then you're just losing money but we we don't we say that explicitly if you are truly
saying that you are a prediction market and it's pvp and we are not a sports book then you can't have both i think that the nuance is it's not it's like i can bet against sharps
all i want so if sharps are hammering the next game tonight and i want to take the other side
i'm free to do that but i think it's the market makers who are who are doing the limiting
which I guess is kind of like an extension
so it's a little bit of the grey zone
that is
the grey zone but lots of these market makers
have explicit contracts
with
and it's not just
that some of those contracts
involve the economic impact so like they do
loss back or they'll say like,
we'll cover your losses up until a certain amount.
So it's basically like a sports book.
I'm still surprised that this is the first set of markets that they,
they want to police.
I thought it would be political actually.
When I,
when I first sent the tweet,
I thought that would be the first set of markets that they go after.
It's interesting but the market makers dominated those markets they made so much money the market makers have had a lot of the information on things like the
super bowl there was a reason why they were allowing for millions of dollars on those super
bowl contracts it's because the market makers were the insiders uh but it's quite easy
to be an insider on which celebrity is turning up to the super bowl right so market makers were good
at that if it's if it's who's going to win in some cricket game in the ipl they don't they don't have
the insider on it that's the bet that Bezos' son,
remember we pulled up the article last Friday,
I think it was the prediction markets
are throwing frat parties,
and part of the headline was Bezos' stepson
was in this frat,
and they were potentially doing inside trading.
Effectively, he told his buddy
that his dad wasn't going to the Super Bowl
or was going to the Super Bowl.
Is that insider trading?
It's a big debate in my eyes.
What is the question again?
If Bezos' son knows that his father is not going to the Super Bowl
and there is a market with millions of dollars going through it.
Well, as a matter of fact, speaking of that,
I saw a Shane Copeland video.
He just did a panel and he actually addressed that.
Let me play it for you guys because this is very relevant to what you guys are saying.
Here, it's a minute.
The final thing I'll say with Polymarket is like critics like to say, oh, you know, it's all sort of, no one can see what's going on.
Like, Polymarket is the worst place to try to do something that you're trying to hide.
It's literally all on chain.
It's all on blockchain.
Not only can we see everything, anyone can see everything.
I mean, it's the most transparent financial marketplace that has ever existed.
You go on these markets, you look at the activity, you see, you can see the wallet.
Like, it's the inverse of what people try and make it out to be. And I think in a lot of ways,
that's very useful because you can go and not only look at the market price and have it as a
black box, you can go and see who holds what. What's the trading history? Okay, well, visit
the profile of some person who bought a lot. Do they, you know, what sort of characteristics are
unique to their
profile? Look at their transaction history. It gives you more data. It's truly a free market.
So with that said, it's nascent. Don't let the numbers fool you. This is still the very early
days. I can have answers that question somewhat. I completely disagree with what he's saying.
Why? I used to trade in a market where they would record
every single phone call the regulator would know every single phone call that i made and every
single trade that i did every single conversation that i had so actually the idea that this is this
has better understanding of market participants i don't agree with at all you're trying to tell me
the regulator can't pull up some random person's brokerage account and see all their trades? See, not just their wallet address, their information,
their phone numbers, their tax information. The idea that financial markets don't have that sort
of information is false. In fact, when I used to trade, we had unbelievable amounts of regulation
on communications. So I don't agree with that.
We just don't like the issue markets.
I'm with you.
He's trying to say, oh, yeah, but in financial markets,
you don't know who you're trading against.
They're called bearer securities.
You know exactly who holds any at any time.
You actually have to file that out.
Yeah, blockchain is transparent, but still anonymous right so there's
and then but demand those so we never answered the question is it inside trading at bezos on
like i don't think that should be so there's like there's a spectrum there's a spectrum of like
if you're trading that that the u.s is going to to strike Iran with inside knowledge, that's on the far end of the spectrum
and that could be classified as treason.
If you're trading on financial markets
like you think Amazon's going to beat earnings,
I think that's probably the next notch down.
If you're betting on your dad
to attend the Super Bowl or not,
that's kind of on your counterparties
to bet against you, in my opinion.
So I'm not getting. So I don't,
I'm not getting up
and I'll just sleep.
I mean, the market
is there for you to take.
Like, did you create the market?
Probably not, right?
That's what I mean.
I think markets like that
are just dumb.
Like, if you don't have
inside information
and you are putting
a lot of money on that market,
you're an idiot.
Yeah.
Exactly.
If you're going to bet on Jeff Bezos not going, then you should know that there's someone
on the other side of your trade.
Yeah.
But not with Jeff Bezos.
He's not going to attend and that's going to take it.
Right?
So the comments are funny about the jacket.
I was going to say, yeah, the jacket's definitely after you made a billion dollars.
It's definitely a billion dollar jacket.
But it's funny. I don't know. We'll
see where this whole Palantir thing goes. It's interesting that you're right about the
sports thing. It's just going to get more and more regulated, right? And the CFTC is
trying to actively take a position with regards to prediction markets
and to work with the SEC on that.
So it's not like, you know, they're not trying, etc.
It's just that, you know, it's just taking a little bit of time.
I think, look, I'm a massive fan of prediction markets.
I really am.
But they are getting caught in some...
And the insider trading thing, I actually
semi-agree with what Tyler
said as well, which is that if they put up
markets which are like that, which is so easy
to exploit, then it's on
the user rather than the platform
more than anything there. It's not insider
trading. Jeff Bezos' son
who didn't put up the market,
has nothing to do with the market.
They've just put that market up,
and that person clearly has insider information,
and whatever circle he has has got, you know,
which could be like 500 people, 1,000 people,
who then tell their friends.
There's going to be a lot of insiders on markets like that
if you put them up.
On the sports betting thing, I think the issue is just current regulated platforms basically being like, well, this is just like us.
And you can't claim that it's different if it's just a relationship with a market maker.
different if it's different if it's just a relationship with a market maker i think the
market the market maker relationships there's going to be a lot of scrutiny on the contracts
there so if there's like lost back elements to them i think they'll probably end up going
that'll be the next thing that happens here like the the contracts they have with sysquahana or
with jane street they're going to change.
Because if it's deemed that they are essentially sharing in the economics of these market makers,
then it's just like a sports book.
Casino guy coming off the picture markets.
Absolute setup.
I'm just kidding.
Mando makes a lot of good points.
And you're right.
And of course,
it's going to get more regulated
and we're going to see this come
as they go.
And, you know,
at the end of the day,
like also Polymark and CalShare
are making a lot of noise
for the better or for the worse.
Like some things,
you know,
are being flagged with,
you know,
CFTC,
with FTC,
with all these different regulators.
So it's definitely
brought a lot of attention.
As a matter of fact,
I think the whole Nikita Beer
crash out on X
on a smaller scale
about the partnerships was probably because of the crazy amount of production markets ads in the news sites, the news Twitter pages, right?
It kind of started with that, actually.
Like Nikita crashed out and like a week later, we saw the whole thing.
So it hasn't helped.
So now imagine on a larger scale.
What else?
Is there anything we've missed?
Yeah, some perhaps big news out of hype this morning.
I sent the tweet in the group.
I'll send it again.
So it looks like they're going to add higher margin caps
to their whale users starting this weekend.
So new caps are going to be up to a million in USDH
that folks are going to be able to a million in USDH that folks are going to be able
to borrow. What does that mean? I don't know exactly. I'm more used to the concept of margin
and I guess that they have margin already. I'll have to dig into this one to see exactly what it is.
Okay, it's like lending.
They're bringing out lending.
You could borrow $2 million if you have at very least $4 million supplied in BLP.
So it's up to $1 million USDC and USDH.
Yeah.
So yeah, it's borrowing.
It's lending.
How is this different than like they're essentially lending to you for leverage trading?
I don't think it's for leverage trading so this is just pure lending okay yeah so this looks like collateralized lending to me yeah it's almost like decentralized bank
at this stage yeah this is kind of going after more camino that's interesting yeah i mean i was i'm looking
camino user or i was more in the bowl you're not lending against your meme coins again
remember lending it with the far coins looping them for the yield yeah i don't guys we are
flying ripping yeah we're breaking out, baby.
What's your breakout lines?
We were trying to draw new lines.
Bottom range, we're thinking 62.5, 63.
Top range, about 71.
With the last failure to break at 74.
What do you see that, Mando?
I'm not in Bitcoin.
It is around about...
It's actually just slightly higher now than where I cut it.
I mean, look at this.
I would need it to break above 70, like the previous high,
for me to want to get involved in it.
Let's wait for tomorrow.
Yeah.
Let's go, Tyler!
Tyler's done it.
What I have bought bought quite a lot of
is hype.
Yeah.
Hype is great.
Hype is very good.
Hype is a good coin.
So, and I still have
my XMR, but that's not really
doing much.
Yeah, I'm in my two positions positions right now i'm pretty happy with them
um i i think bitcoin is is everyone over that's what that is
i i do think there's a good there was a thing today which is like the Coinbase premium
for the first time in like 13 weeks you have
Coinbase premium, which means that US people
are buying again during US hours
a good sign
is it just
Sailor though?
it was just Sailor
I saw that, yeah
should I bring up the charts if you want to
do you want to look through them all sure again i think it's worth it yeah let's go i failed to
think which charts is going to look somewhat zeke okay maybe but that that kind of sold off but
you're right are you in the zeke trade now ty Tyler? I'm not. It's my preferred privacy coin.
Okay, so we're going to do it on the daily
just to really narrow it down.
Like, obviously...
The daily is a little gross, dude.
Still grim, kind of across the board here.
Gold.
Gold, obviously, should have bought the dip on gold.
Yeah.
Yeah, I forgot this time.
I did it last week.
It worked out.
Five is probably the only coin
that looks like it might break out
on a bull trend on the daily right now.
I think 35 is the number.
Pull it up on the four hour.
It's about 35, which is the number, yeah.
It's already broken through, obviously,
on the four hour.
This is on daily.
So this is like a much longer bull trend here.
There's no other coin that I follow.
Zero is probably
the closest.
What about SPX
6900?
I don't even love
the shit. But on the
4-hour,
on the 4-hour,
yeah, it doesn't look terrible.
I have to say, it doesn't look terrible.
Maybe that was a perfect retest and then break out
maybe that was
pull up the Zeke chart for Tyler
Zeke doesn't look
that strong to me
the strongest one is probably Bitcoin
out of the majors
yeah obviously Hype The strongest one is probably Bitcoin out of the majors.
Yeah.
Obviously hype.
Try and look.
I don't have that many coins up here.
Yeah.
I don't know.
What do you think, Tyler? I'm Tyler not convinced Tyler's bullish though I still think Bitcoin's gonna break higher just on the back of
all the increased sailor bias I don't know how long he's gonna be able to keep it up
if it's just gonna be more of a local near-term thing I think people there's a line in the sand
on March 15th for when this first stretch dividend gets paid out.
Are we going to see an exodus after that one?
It's going to be a telling date,
but the thing's getting slammed right now.
Suey.
Someone say pull up Suey.
Suey?
I don't know.
Are we ready?
Are we ready for Suey? Rip rip it rip it what big one is
running right now uh suey no number market cap or is that how you look at it
i mean it looks okay but that is just horrific. Oh, my goodness gracious.
Oh, my goodness.
So hype looks the best.
So you're really – then you are betting on hype to break out against Bitcoin.
I know you said that's not how you think about pair trades, but –
It's just not that they weren't – if I was going to put on a pair trade, I'd put it on versus ETH.
Yeah.
So hype.
What about pump? I don't even think about pump anymore i'm just reading the chats yeah i know same tao pump
do you really like do you want do you want to get back in the in the water with those sort of ones
it just feels i don't i'm just reading the comments i personally have no interest i've got i'm do you have circle stock oh and coinbase sock two has been doing good
i do not circle 117 it's it's it's about to be a full double since wow that's impressive
since
that's impressive
there's massive
I've really narrowed my focus during these
periods because there's so much
track but CircleStock has been
on some crazy tear right
there's the first one
delete stock
that's the first one
yeah that's weird oh well
circle that's the first one yeah it's crcl that's it that's the first one strange
oh there it is wow
that was good
is that the daily yeah that's the daily so yeah very strong trend that's the daily
so yeah very strong trend
14 straight green days
that is beautiful
one day crypto is going to look like that again boys
well it's technically crypto
but it's not
but yeah it kind of is
zero oh zero please I see it down there on your thing 210 are you kidding That's technically crypto, but it's not. But yeah, it kind of is.
Damn.
Zero.
Oh, ZRO, please.
I see it down there on your thing.
210?
Are you kidding me?
I said zero is one of the strong ones.
Oh, I'm going to kick myself, bro.
40% Twitter show.
Brian on the show.
Yeah. 150.
God.
And then Tyler and I were talking about how bullish it was.
God. god and then tyler and i were talking about how bullish it was god it's like a 50 pump fuck yeah that one's painful
eating till die or tg that's funny um all right. Anyways, shall I get some money?
Just real quick. We did have someone
comments much earlier talk about the Maltbook headline.
So Meta
acquired Maltbook.
Excuse me?
Yeah.
The news broke this morning
right before the show. So folks don't remember
Maltbook is that social network for
AI agents. Humans aren't allowed to post.
They're allowed to read.
There was a weekend where the AI agents kind of went nuts.
They were all talking to each other.
They're crafting religions and evil plans,
and there was questions about how much it was actually real or not.
But Meta has acquired them for an undisclosed price,
and their founders are going to join Meta's superintelligence labs.
So pretty big
news the molt token unsurprisingly is up about 200 that is a shit coin um but it it did move a
bit on the back of the headline still down oh god i forgot some old book went to 100 million
those days feel so far away with how quiet the trenches have been.
It's $71,000.
It's $7 million now.
Wow, Bitcoin?
$71,000.
Coming up, huh?
Yeah.
Ooh, there it is.
Nice.
Well, it looks good, boys.
The questions are we going to get rejected on CPI tomorrow?
Oh, CPI tomorrow, you said?
Yeah, probably sell off before that, huh?
7-1-1.
Yeah, we are.
Ripping, running, flying, soaring, in other words.
All right, let's get some money away.
Let's do it.
Acquired for MetaQuest and two pairs of very bands.
That's funny.
All right, we're doing silver plus $250 today, and then tomorrow, I believe, and the day after
awaited soap. It's funny. All right. We're doing silver plus 250 today. And then tomorrow, I believe, and the day after I waited.
Let's go.
Open the fit.
What's your name?
Open the fit.
Should we play some?
Open the,
there it is.
A little meme here.
Meme Land PFP,
look at that.
I was talking to Razor,
by the way,
he's going to try and come on the show,
probably.
I'm trying to get a date pinned down.
Will,
he will be wearing a shirt.
A topless show for everyone?
Should we poll our viewers?
What do they want?
Is it a topless show, boys?
Feels like it.
Vanessa got the way in.
That's funny.
There's some Champions League today, baby.
Okay, so
yesterday's...
What did we do?
We did Lamp Shop and it was a horrible run.
Yeah, let's do some Omaha.
Let's do some Omaha today.
That was terrible.
Don't you guys have a new game coming?
Mando, you said something about this.
Mines.
I know Mines is coming.
And then I think we're going to have...
Where's Open the Fit?
Candle Crash.
Ooh, Candle Crash. Ooh.
Candle Crash.
All right.
Yeah, my bad.
It's provocative.
It's a crash game.
With Candle.
All right.
Open the fin.
Are you ready?
Shall we get some money to this guy?
Let's do it.
Shall we?
Let's go.
Oh, God.
That is disgusting.
Yeah.
Jesus Christ.
We need a pair.
Six.
We need a six or pocket eight, nine, ten, and look at the above.
One king.
One king.
Or an eight.
King or eight.
King or eight.
King or eight.
King or eight.
King or eight.
Oh, re-bet. All right, let's go. Hard to beat the King or eight. King or eight. King or eight. King or eight. Oh, I'll be back.
All right, let's go.
It's hard to beat the whole house.
Oh, very doable.
Okay, we got to win this.
We got to win this.
Let's get the single card.
Are you kidding me?
Oh, no.
Oh, no.
Wow.
Damn.
Never lost like that on a pair of twos.
Well, we can't win them all.
Open the fit. That might be the worst Omaha loss we have in show history
I think that might be the worst
that was the worst Omaha we've had
because Omaha's been looping up
that's very unfortunate
but with that being said
we will see you tomorrow morning
peace out
bye guys 10 Emmys are set of time. Peace out. Bye, guys. Peace. I I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
