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FOMO HOUR: MARKETS PUMP, OIL, IRAN CONFLICT AND NEWS
Recorded: March 9, 2026 Duration: 1:02:19Space Recording
Full Transcription
Music Okay.
Check, check, check.
Okay, perfect.
Let's kick it, Charlie. ΠΈ
ΠΈγγγ
What's up?
Good morning, good morning, GM, GF.
Monday, March 9th, 2020.
Another beautiful day to have another beautiful day.
It's a beautiful week in the market at least.
It's starting off strong.
I've got my co-host in the house.
Tyler, good morning. How are you doing today?
I'm good. What a difference 12 hours makes. And last night, it was panic. Oil's $115 a barrel.
It's going to be a black Monday. The stock market's going to crash. Here we are.
Bitcoin's green. We're going to have a big green Monday, it seems. Don't want to jinx it, but a nice little start.
And dealing with the time
change here, but
not too bad. It's going to be an 11
a.m. slam because Jane Street didn't
So we can't get too
confident yet. We have to wait for the 11 a.m.
slam.
Because the time change caught me by
surprise. It always does. It's always like,
I always forget. So I planned all my
meetings for this week, but like weeks ago, right?
Like a week ago or two weeks ago.
And then this morning, I was like, shit.
All my meetings were brought up.
I'm like, oh, wait, this doesn't work.
I can't do that.
So anyways, maybe Jane Street
didn't realize.
And they don't know.
Nobody say anything.
We say nothing.
You know, a boy sailor managed to buy Bitcoin in 95K this week.
So that's not bad.
He's down.
My God.
Anyways, with that being said.
With that being said, with that being said,
today on the show,
we will chat about definitely the market.
That's what we're going to open with.
We'll chat about the news over the weekend.
I'm sure there's a few things to cover from this weekend, of course.
Unfortunately, if we see this ongoing war and conflict that we're going to cover with regards to the markets,
we saw an oil surge, so I'm sure we're going to talk about that as well.
CT, as usual, managed to buy over the $110.
Some CT dollars.
There were some people in CT calling for oil way back, I got to say.
I just see some posts last week.
And then, Yigay giveaway.
one lucky winner.
one thing is,
we'll talk about it when we get to the Yigay segment,
but I forgot the name.
Charlie's got it.
Whoever we bet for you,
thanks to Razmer.
you owe Razmer and his looks maxing capabilities.
You know,
thank you.
Because we put,
what,
250 on it for the guy?
Whoever it was. I forgot who it was.
And they won like 650,
625 because of the UFC. I forgot about that.
So anyways, that was cool. And then we'll pick a winner
to come and play with us. Yeah, GP.
Yeah, GP1115C24.
There you go. So that was him.
And then last one,
this show is powered by... Where's my little thing? I need to need to see my notes. I'm terrible. Thank you, Charlie. This show is powered by Walrus. Walrus is a verifiable data platform for builders in AI and on-chain finance. As the systems handle more money in decisions, the more mission critical data foundations becomes. To learn more walrus dot x y z tyler for daily
crypto analysis
folks crypto major is surprisingly bright green this morning. We've got Bitcoin up 2%, 68,800.
We've got ETH up 3%, 2012.
Back over that 2K level.
SLON up 3% at 85.
This all comes after last night oil went as high as $115 a barrel.
It's now trading closer to that $100 level after the last night surge.
It does seem like some oil tankers are going through the straight of Hormuz.
So it's not fully closed, at least as of this morning.
So perhaps a positive sign there.
Going through some of the headlines on the day,
Polymarket and Couchy reportedly raising at $20 billion valuations.
Their last race was just in December, October and December, respectively.
Here we are three months later.
They've already doubled their valuations again.
This is just insane growth.
Florida is aiming to sign a new stablecoin bill in the law,
effectively its own version of the Genius Act,
I think the first state to do so.
Circle and Stripe reportedly investing heavily
in stablecoin infrastructure for AI.
NASDAQ has some breaking news this morning.
NASDAQ is going to work with Kraken to offer tokenized stocks on Kraken's platform.
So Kraken remains on the hot streak.
Man, they're fired. Wow.
Some big headlines there.
In treasuries and ETFs, Bitcoin ETFs were at $350 million outflows on Friday,
but they ended the week $569 million net inflows.
So it was a positive week.
We had Stretch set another record on Friday,
1.87 million shares, capital to buy another $1,069 Bitcoin.
That was a new record.
Then we got the totals from Saylor.
Saylor bought $1.28 billion of Bitcoin last week at a $70,600 average.
So his biggest week in quite some time.
Tom Lee and Bitminder had a big week as well.
They bought 60,000 ETH last week.
So that's about 120 million or so.
That's their biggest buy since December.
So both of them are buying in size.
And then Sharplank has their earnings call this morning.
So we'll see what comes out of that.
In token airdrop and protocol news, it was a quieter weekend.
We had Cast drop the bombshell this morning. They raised $80 million Series A to build stablecoin-powered cross-border payments.
So that's a huge raise for them.
Tether invested in Utexo, which is a startup aimed at bringing stablecoins to Bitcoin.
Memes, kind of just flat over the weekend. Not a whole lot of action.
Oil, this meme coin oil is up 50%. SOS up 100%, Bitcoin memes kind of just flat over the weekend. Not a whole lot of action oil.
This meme coin oils up 50% SOS up a hundred percent,
but really not a whole lot of action.
NFTs mostly flat as well.
Pudgy penguins did PTs,
a pudgy world announcement today.
And then there was an exploit on Gandhi.
Unfortunately,
that has led to some NFTs being stolen.
Folks are encouraged not to use the platform until that is resolved.
Note it is not impacting assets that are in loan contracts right now.
This is assets that had previously been.
So go over to their page.
They've got some instructions to follow if you might be impacted.
But always have to take those seriously.
Yeah, I was like, I saw the thing and I was like, yo, I texted Danny right away.
I was like, dude, Iran is stealing 7th trade.
You know, the Ayatollah was about to to Change the PFP to 7th trade from his grave
I'm a Gandhi power user
I've got assets over there
It's true
Cyrus has got 3 million dollars
Jesus Christ
That's the shit you'd hate to see
We don't need these things in this market
NFTs are in the bear of the bear
It's even worse than the coins
We don't need more bad news for NFTs folks.
Shout out to BBA.
I think he was quick on it.
I didn't realize.
Mando told me that he worked there.
I didn't realize there was a product over there.
So I saw his tweet, sent it in.
I was like, is that real?
I was like, yeah, he works there.
I was like, oh shit, this is real.
So Danny's not only getting bombarded by Iranian drone strikes.
On top of that, his loans are at risk over there from the Iranian hackers.
I'm just kidding.
In no way, shape, or form is gone.
You probably link to that.
But anyways, speaking of which, Mendo, good morning.
How are you doing today?
Good morning, guys.
How are you doing?
Good.
Tyler is like pumped this morning.
He's bullish.
We're going to have to spend 17 minutes today, FYI,
on the correlation between the NASDAQ bottom 17 years ago today,
on March 9th, 2009.
Or S&P, sorry.
So we're going to have to spend 17 minutes on that
because 17-year anniversary of the bottom.
So could that be the bottom for us?
We shall see.
But anyways, let's start with the bottom. Could that be the bottom for us? We shall see. But anyways, let's start
with the
market.
It looks like we were ripping, flying, soaring
before the show nearly touched 70k. Tyler,
go to you and then maybe Mando
for some analysis.
Who's gone? Why don't we go to Mando?
I went through the report.
That's true.
Mando, how do you feel about this market today?
We're just back in the range.
Like I said, this is not... I don't like getting involved in the range.
I like getting involved with the edges.
I love that.
To me, it feels like we're back in the range.
I don't feel I need to do anything unless we break up or break meaningfully down.
I would say that on a macro level, it looks like Khamenei's son has now been chosen.
And they seem to be settling in for a longer conflict.
Price of oil obviously went up to 120,
which is, you've already seen with some of the moves in the stock market,
it's got a big impact in parts of Asia in particular.
It would really hurt Chinese manufacturing.
It would really hurt the AI trade out of South Korea. I don't really know here. Obviously, Iran is losing pretty badly the
military side of this, but the economic side feels like the thing they're going to push.
And the regime change bit, I think, is going to be more difficult than initially thought, in my opinion.
There is some talk. So Iran as a country has got a number of different tribal areas, you might say, or like there's a Kurdish area.
Kurdish area, there is a
Azerbaijani area
both of which
are potentially
arming and could potentially
try and take land
here, so there could be more of a
land campaign, but I still think
the most likely outcome here is just that
both sides
basically wear each other down for two
months and we have that sort of deal Here is just that both sides basically wear each other down for two months
and we have that sort of deal where they can both claim some form of victory.
The US is obviously more militarily,
and they may be able to destroy some of the enriched uranium or capture it.
But the uranium one will be look we're
now just going to try and inflict as much economic damage as we can and that is kind of happening
somewhat so let's see there's definitely in my opinion still a massive impetus to do it i don't
think this i don't think this is a long. I don't think this extends to being a global
conflict. I don't believe in any of that sort of stuff. It's still going to be contained.
And I think there is going to be a deal.
Yeah, it's a tricky situation. I mean, at the moment, you know, they've set Mushtabah
Khomeini as the Ayatollah, which is funny because he's not technically an Ayatollah
if you go by the religious sense.
He's in between, so he was obviously working his way up.
Known as a very hardliner,
obviously his father being Ali Khomeini,
the longest standing Ayatollah and the strongest
Ayatollah to have ever pretty much existed after,
he was the next one after Khomeini.
So the difference between Khomeini was the original one,
79 and that.
Known as a hardliner.
Also someone who has lost his father,
his mother,
his wife,
his son, at least one of them was reported dead,
his sister,
his brother-in-law,
niece, nephews, and other
relatives. I'm reading this post.
So if you are allegedly someone who has been wounded,
we don't know because we thought he was actually dead as well.
Turns out he may not be.
So there's multiple things.
There's a school of thought that thinks that he actually may be dead
and it's like Iran is trying to fool people,
saying that he's the Aitola with somebody else.
I would rule that out.
Not that I would know.
The other one is that he's actually wounded,
which would make sense because he got hit and his entire family was taken out. Not that I would know. The other one is that he's actually wounded, which would make sense because he got hit and
his entire family was taken out.
But if your
entire family is taken out that way, you're known
as a hardliner and your next
successor, I don't think you're easing
out here.
Yeah, but the U.S. has
got to, they've got to
find someone they can do a deal with.
And, you know,an is not like venezuela
no absolutely yeah iran has got a full system you know like yes you wiped out everyone it's
got 100 million people like there is there's somebody else there's a structure around the
like there is there's somebody else there's a structure around the the authoritarian uh
organizations which rule around both on the theocratic side and on the military side
so it's not just this thing that just gets wiped out um so that you know we could the u.s could
decide hey we're going to wipe out this next batch of 40. And I don't know if it necessarily gets them what they want.
So I think they've got to make a decision here.
And I agree with you.
This person doesn't necessarily feel like the person you're going to make a deal with.
This guy makes a deal.
You don't know who the next one is.
You don't.
There's a lot of hardliners still left to be alive.
Yeah.
A lot of them.
So it's,
and I think there will be a deal made in a couple months
with whoever they can.
Yeah, it's a tough one.
Yeah, I know.
It's a really tough situation.
I don't have a, I mean, I don't have a huge read on where we're at. I mean, I know. It's a really tough situation. I don't have a
huge read on where we're at.
Allegedly, they
wiped out the 88-person meeting that
was being held last week,
etc. Now these meetings are being
held probably on Zoom.
I don't
know. I really don't know, man,
though, what's going to happen, whether they're going to make a deal.
They're saying no deal. Actually, don't know, Mando, what's going to happen, whether they're going to make a deal. They're saying no deal.
Trump, actually, for the first time since 1945,
a U.S. president said that they will go until unconditional win,
meaning this has not happened in America since 1945,
going to war until surrender.
It's been deals made ever since.
So I don't know. I don't know what it means.
I don't know where we'll go.
It doesn't look like Israel wants to
make any deals either.
I don't think anyone wants to make a deal right now.
I don't think the Iranians want to make
a deal right now.
Because for them,
they need to show that
They need to make it so that
No one wants to attack Iran again
Right
The idea that they would just come to the negotiating table
Is nothing
The only way that they can show the world
You don't attack Iran
Is by having oil prices above 100
For two months
Right They need this They need the economic thing oil prices above 100 for two months.
They need this.
They need the economic thing.
And they will not be willing to do a quick deal.
So I think what you'll see here is this is going to go on for,
like I said, a couple months. But then I do think a deal will be made.
So you're saying oil above 100 is
actually better for iran iran needs that to happen now like they need the world everyone in the world
to realize that this is an issue all the gulf states need to realize it china needs to realize
that us so that it's almost like a threat that you never attack Iran again, you know?
Well, as you say that,
I'm sorry to cut you off,
but literally as you say that,
13 seconds ago,
Iran warns of $200 oil.
So it's clearly the line,
the narrative line that they're running with, right?
And the Iranian military spokesperson said
oil could hit $200 a barrel
if U.S. and Israeli strikes
on its energy infrastructures continue.
Recent attacks,
including Israel hitting Tehran refinery storage tanks,
forced Iran to cut fuel allowances.
Since the conflict began, Iran and its proxies have targeted oil facilities
in Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait, and reducing regional output.
So this is exactly the point that you're making.
They aren't going to win militarily.
It's very clear.
There's some focus on that, and obviously there's going to be a battle
around number of interceptors versus drones. But they are just going to try and take offline as much of
the energy infrastructure as they can and the us is probably okay china's going to be europe is in
a world of issue right now because remember the gas that it was meant to be getting from russia it was then getting from qatar and and energy prices in europe are going sky high right now so look that's gonna and and then
everyone is gonna there's gonna be pressure to like to make a deal but iran i think is going to
try and keep this up for a while um they know that they're going to lose the military battle
they might even lose the nuclear like sites but they need to make it so that it's a credible
threat that you never attack iran again so i think it's going to be i think it's going to be
uh two months for this yeah tyler you were about to say something? So does this set us up for another 2025-like scenario?
In 2025, it was the tariffs.
Markets sold off through April.
Hurt to head front run that a bit.
And then V-shaped rebound.
Of course, this is a very different situation.
But I think it's just an easy analogy for some to draw just because it's recent.
And it's another situation that can be reversed.
You know, if there is signs that the war is ending, straight opens up, world production back.
production back so i'm curious do you have are you looking at it that way
So I'm curious, do you have, are you looking at it that way?
markets is more difficult to judge because markets are always making different they're reading far
into the future often but i don't think you're going to hear good news about this de-escalating
in the near term yeah that's that's my sense i think you're going to you're going to have to have a period here of pain and everyone realizing what and what like an issue is to attack a country like this.
But but then at the end, everyone can claim that they won. And then there's a deal.
Like the US obviously can claim huge victories on the, I mean, people have been like,
we don't know why we're in for it.
I think right or wrongly,
Trump has been very clear about his objectives.
They were put out several times and repeated smaller ones may have changed
during that period.
And he may be saying different things,
but the actual objectives that they've put out,
they are there.
And I think they,
a lot of them are achievable,
which is to reduce the military threat of Iran. But Iran's, if i'm in iran right now what am i trying to do i'm just trying to
keep oil as high as i can and not make a deal yeah because and then when they do decide to
make a deal they try and make that as the final deal you know makes sense And it may be with the IRGC
rather than with the
Ayatollahs. I don't know
if internally there's a ship
A deal with the IRGC rather than a deal with the IRGC
rather than a deal with the
Ayatollahs, but it's
over the last 40 years, obviously, they've been much more
intertwined. It really depends on if this new
religious leader
maintains
that closeness with the
military.
Yep.
Well, we shall see where this takes off.
I think we're on, what, two weeks already, huh?
Is it day 15 of the conflict?
What's Polymarket saying for when the war ends?
Yeah, it's a great question question actually um let me pull it up
um one second uh is there one like was yeah there's a ceasefire 47 by april 30th
yeah 22 by the end of this month 67 by end of june yeah i would agree with that i think we've
got until the end of April.
You're talking about the ceasefire, this market?
Yeah. It's interesting.
What's really just shocked me now is U.S. forces enter Iran. I don't know...
Okay, so that's
not like a full invasion. That just seems like
it could just be special forces.
Yeah, you've got to define...
Like a Delta Force type thing, right?
Yeah, like the big prize here is the enriched uranium, which Iran has.
Allegedly, they would try and go for their like 400 kilos or something of enriched uranium, right?
Yeah.
But Iran does have a massive army.
Of course.
There's a lot of men over there.
Yeah.
So I don't know how easy just like an extraction
thing is going to be
it's nothing to do with Venezuela
like
no Venezuela is very
different like Venezuela was one man
who set
also not religious
was ruling a
very poorly run not religious, who was ruling a very
poorly run
administration.
It's just one guy running everything.
Everyone was
kind of like, they made deals.
Same thing with Cuba, right?
What's going on right now? We'll see, but...
Cuba's going to go.
There's a lot of protests right now going on in the streets.
That's a lot more obvious where that's going.
Yeah.
Rubio's going to have a busy year.
Yeah.
I have to say, Rubio28, I'm liking the prediction more and more.
Just saying.
I'm a fan.
He's good.
He's at 10%
here
we haven't seen
JD much involved in this conflict stuff
right? although maybe it's not his job
so I don't know
not really his job yeah
but you know
it's very much his job but
I don't hate making
you can make missteps
on this though too you know so
it's pretty
wild ball
yes I mean Caroline Leva
they're talking about like a draft is not off the table
like the longer this
goes the it's going to be more and more unpopular
this can't last
hold this back to crypto where this goes, that it's going to be more and more unpopular. Yes, this can't last.
Hold this back to crypto though.
I mean, I,
I know you said you were still in the range.
I don't know.
It feels a little stronger than that to me.
Like, I mean, stocks are red.
I mean,
stocks open deep red today.
Like NASDAQ's down a percent,
Dow's down one and a half percent.
So not, not terrible.
Crypto's bright green.
And then something that has changed in the last week,
we got to talk about Big Mike, Stretch.
So he bought 1.28 billion in Bitcoin last week,
his biggest in quite some time.
And if you go through the math,
Stretch was 377 million of that.
Set two all-time highs.
Today is off to a really fast start as well.
Yeah, he's already $400 million Bitcoin today.
Tyra, you're killing it with this Stretch thing.
You're like, do you own it?
Like, you're all over this. I don't're like you're all over it I don't no no
I'm just rooting for Bitcoin to go up
so I'm trying to find
reasons that that might happen
so we had
half a billion in ETF
inflows 1.28
billion from Saylor
billion in net buy pressure.
Who's selling
Michael out?
There's a lot of sellers still.
I want to know
because, yeah,
is this this one? No, this is not this week.
No. Yeah, it is.
Yeah, that's this week.
So 70.9. It doesn't look as bad now
because we're 69K.
But who's selling this man as Bitcoin?
I don't know.
People laughed at the 70.9K average again like they always do.
But Bitcoin was higher than that from 3 a.m. on March 4th all the way till 3 a.m. on March 6th.
Two full days traded above that.
Granted, he's the one driving it up.
So it seems like he basically
drove that breakout
with his buys, seemingly.
Oh, that's 74K again.
Boys, every time.
Every time.
Sailor Bennett.
That's what happened, man, though.
Last week.
It was Sailor, dude.
One of these days, though,
it's not going to be Michael Sailor, guys.
Exactly.
One of these days,
it's not going to be him.
And shit's going to go.
Shit's going to go.
We can only hope for that.
The rest of the market,
I don't know.
I mean,
hype is looking really good.
I don't know how it's looking
on your stuff,
but it looked really good
this morning.
32 something.
Wait,
hype's at 30.
Wow, okay.
It's looking really good again. Okay. I didn't realize. 33 is the number. Wow, it said 30. Wow, okay. It's looking really good again.
Okay, I didn't realize.
33 is the number.
Wow, it's on the line, huh?
I don't have that much risk on right now.
Like I cut my Bitcoin.
And I am along a little bit of hype.
Look at that.
I'll still have some R trade on.
What else do I have?
Gold is not looking as great right now.
Didn't break back up.
And hype looks good.
Hype looks really good.
Yeah, that's...
We said it on here.
We said it on here. We said it on here.
The thesis was simple, guys.
I mean, I don't know what the...
The website you used to track silver buys
and all this stuff, Tyler,
but it was oil.
Oil was the story.
Like, oil is doing like...
Let me tell you.
CL, right?
CL Futures.
$1.3 billion of volume
in the last 24 hours.
For me, it was just one-to-one situation that happened with silver.
Silver was pumping.
Everyone was buying silver on hype.
People realized they can trade on the weekend 24-7, 365.
And hype just gets even more buybacks.
That's it.
That was that takeover of the weekend,
which is whenever crypto guys start buying things,
it's the top in macro.
I have to say that when I saw Easy Eats
by our portfolio today,
and it was long oil on polymarket,
I was like, this may be a top here.
Here, check this out.
I threw that this morning, last year before bed.
All top soon because one,
Trump and the US are not liking
the latest attacks on all deposed by Israel,
which is a fact.
Apparently, they were really not happy
about the latest attacks there.
And two CTs longing.
And that was the thought.
I tweeted this, I think,
if he time-stimmed this,
it was like 110.
Yeah, it's usually, you know, there's always that.
You saw that guy, his name is PPPPooPoo.
He made like four and a half million dollars on oil publicly.
So there's always that one odd, like, unticked, smaller account
that's going to cook on a trade like that.
Then everybody piles on and goes viral.
And then there's layers of influencers that start stacking into the trade.
And there's always those ones that you know,
you have a 48-hour ticking time bomb there.
It could make another push up
if the war keeps going on.
Don't get me wrong,
but that was quite the talk.
There might be some other sharp counterparties
trading oil across the globe right now.
Yeah, there might be some sharp.
Compared to the meme coin streets.
But on hype,
we also had Arthurthur hayes write his
latest blog this morning he's calling for hype to 150 by august wow do we do we still listen to these
though like well no if he well tyler you made a good point if if he's calling for 150 by august
he'll be selling at 39 yeah and like that's what i've noticed so I used to do write-ups for Arthur Hayes posts
and I've stopped because
a lot of them were just basically
insert latest geopolitical event
and say okay
inflation
I wonder if he by August is aggressive
it's like my primary question
I mean this did like at least
catch my attention for a second
so like what would have to play out here
then my fundamental
question is, can hype run against
Bitcoin?
I looked at the hype Bitcoin chart.
I mean, still...
It kind of broke out.
That's a good thing.
I never look at it this way.
Are you saying hype BTC?
Yeah.
I never really look at it.
I think hype ETH versus ETH is a better trade than hype versus BTC? Yeah. I never really looked at it. I think hype ETH versus ETH
is a better trade
than hype versus BTC.
Why?
I just think
they're similar trades,
more similar.
You own Bitcoin
because you want to own gold.
You don't own ETH
because of that.
ETH is like,
it's a use of an L1
but without the mechanism
for returning that value
to people.
So if I was to look at a pair trade there, long short,
I'd look at long hype short, ETH or short sold.
Honestly, probably equal weighted.
Okay. Yeah, it's fair.
I don't like the shorty as much as soul because it has so much more going
on for it but i don't disagree with your what you're saying either yeah it's a good point
what's the valuation of these but i just like first of all i like it like i think it's got
it's got the inflows it's got the institutional it's got the tom lee that's still going on kind
like it's sailor like soul doesn't have that going on for it right yeah look i i Lee that's still going on kind of like it's Sailor. Like, Sol doesn't have that going on for it, right?
Yeah, look,
I think that's fair.
I think that's fair. ETH is 250 billion
now.
And Sol is 50.
But I, you know,
wow, Sol is 50.
So, like, hype is getting
close to it in terms of
FDV, huh?
Even FDV, wowV it's kind of crazy
Solana
FDV52
I didn't realize that
I made a comment about FDV on hype
and a lot of people were correcting me
saying that you can't really look at that for hyperliquid
I forgot what was the reason
bro you're going to get it by no dude correcting me saying that you can't really look at that for hyperliquid. I forgot what was the reason.
Bro, you're going to get it hyperliquid.
No, dude.
Hyperliquid never sells.
Honestly, they've been really good with that.
They don't really sell.
That's a fact. They've been really good
at the...
Here, there it is. I found my
tweet.
I said, check FDV.
This person said,
hard to use FDV here
because we don't know
the unlock schedule for the team
or the 43% community rewards emissions.
Could be decades with this team
or $2, $3 million being burned every day.
It's not a bad point, right?
Could be decades.
I don't know.
Is it?
If it's trading at... market cap is eight and a half
seems cheap there yeah um well the reason I keep comparing to Bitcoin man is from a personal
trading standpoint most of my liquid holdings are in Bitcoin so I have a personal trade-out decision
like should I hold x Bitcoin or should I convert it?
What's going to be the strongest play through August?
And a handful of times I go, man, I should just swap.
But it hasn't really broken out.
So I haven't done it. I mean, I like
hype as a trade.
It's tricky.
Well, no.
We like the coin.
What else, Ty?
There was quite a few things.
The biggest headline, other than what we talked about,
has to be Pauly and Kalshi reportedly raising
at $20 billion valuations.
It used to be a joke.
It seemed like they would just raise,
they would re-raise every other month or so.
Here we are.
So Calci's last raise was $1 billion
at $11 billion valuation in December 2025.
So now they've effectively doubled.
I think Polymarket's last raise, I believe,
was $2 billion from the ICE,
the New York Stock Exchange parent,
at a $9 billion valuation.
So they're now up more
than double since then um as i was looking into this i did look at the volumes again
and i think prediction markets overall passed 100 billion in volume february was 18 billion
in volume across the just those two players.
Weekly users approaching $1 million.
Open interest at $1 billion.
So everything continues up until... I thought we saw the fees the other day on a June dashboard.
And they're like $5 million a month.
I haven't looked at fees.
I feel like from Polymarket specifically,
they were very slow to turn their fees
on and they were only turning them on for
certain markets. I think they were turning them on for their
15-minute crypto markets.
Yeah, they are.
My interpretation of that is they're just showing you
that eventually they can turn these on.
I see the other read
that if they do,
volumes will drop
yeah
they can't put too many fees on that
pre-revenue
yeah
it's crazy I have to say
the $20 billion number
yeah
good for us dude
I ain't complaining about 20 billion dollar
valuation on blind market i can see i can go both ways right like on like the hard line yeah like
if you're looking at you can you can find metrics i think to paint your side of the story like if
you want to try to paint a bear case uh you can um but just like the the soft case like the softball case is strong just like
total explosion like they're in the news every week like when people want to talk to me like
normies who are outside the space like i feel like more and more i want to talk about prediction
markets like what prediction markets How do I get involved?
I get that a decent amount these days.
And I mean, I've been on the record.
I didn't think, I thought the election would be the high for a while.
And clearly they found new ways to stay relevant and keep driving all this up.
They're capturing everything.
They're capturing attention everywhere.
Iran markets traded over a billion.
They're capturing so much attention, brother.
Everything you think of, people are checking
the poly market.
If you saw the stats, poly market took over Calci again
not long ago, this week.
They were really just neck and neck.
They're really neck and neck.
Really neck and neck. 1. really neck and neck. Like really neck and neck.
1.93 bill and 1.87 bill.
But I mean, maybe the whole Cal sheet thing last week.
And then I think a lot of traditional media were writing about them.
That didn't help the case.
But they run the Khamenei market.
That happened.
So there was that but um yeah it's uh gonna be interesting of course the big
question is poly airdrop if when like someone was sending me an airdrop calculator. So those are going around. People are getting their hopes up.
That is as a fact. I think there's a big open question. So Polymarket, the company is raising
at 20 billion. What would that mean for their token? I think a lot of folks in their heads
are just going to go one for one. We just saw OKB or OKX raised at like 20, 25 billion.
Their token's trading at two.
So it doesn't necessarily mean one for one by any means.
But then also, like when you look at the top crypto tokens in the world,
20 billion puts them, they'd be behind Hyperliquid.
They'd basically be
top 12.
That doesn't seem that crazy
for,
you know,
a protocol is big.
It's probably marked to come in
and be a top 12,
top 15 crypto token.
So in that way,
it seems feasible.
They're not slowing down.
This is going to be interesting.
It's exciting, honestly, if anything, on that front.
So there's also the Kraken news.
More big news there.
These guys are on fire, dude.
Yeah, I just have the headline on this one. I haven't had a chance to dig in, but Nasdaq's going to work with Kraken news. More big news there. These guys are on fire, dude. Yeah, I just have the headline on this one.
I haven't had a chance to dig in.
But NASDAQ's going to work with Kraken to offer tokenized stocks.
And I saw it's going to be on Kraken's platform as well.
So the big headlines are rolling in for them.
They have not.
They're all pre IPO still.
Right.
I mean,
that's what they're doing,
right?
You can read between the lines like news,
news,
news,
news,
news,
news.
And then last week they got the,
they secured the fed master account.
They're the first big crypto protocol to do that.
I mean,
Kraken was early to the X stocks,
right?
They were really,
they were,
they were really early to that.
They were the ones pushing it.
They were way before Coinbase and Binance, right?
So it's interesting.
They're really doing good there.
Fuck.
That's going to be an interesting IPO to follow
because Gemini and the other recent
IPOs, BigGo, etc. have not been good.
Yeah, the platforms have not been
as strong.
Meanwhile, Circle stock continues.
It circles up another 8% today.
So where did this thing...
Let me just check this real quick.
So we're almost up...
It's up over 80%
since that Q4 earnings on February 24th,
which is now almost two weeks ago.
So the stable coin buzzword is like the hot buzzword again.
And I think it's also tied to the AI and agentic commerce piece.
I think any of the crypto platforms who have a tie-in to that, I think is going to be
a very bullish tailwind.
Oh, wait, Claude! Did we chat about
this yesterday? Claude released their
packaged
polymarket.
A packaged up
prediction market bot.
Was that real?
I didn't
dig into it, but it felt like it could be real.
Cause it seems like so many folks are,
are building,
are using cloud and AI tools to spin up prediction market bots.
We did.
I'll,
I'll dig more into that.
I thought that was in,
I thought we were sharing that in the group chat yesterday,
but I may be mistaken.
I saw something.
Double check that before we go into that.
Yeah, I don't want to count it.
Yeah, I sent you a tweet.
You really need to communicate on that.
Okay.
It's, yeah.
I'm not sure about that.
I'm not too sure how real that was.
There's something.
Oh, it's from Mario Novel.
Okay.
The guy published has nothing to do with trading
nor does it contain anything regarding a trading bot.
Okay.
Yeah.
Because I was excited and I sent that to the team
in the Myriad team chat.
And someone said,
I mean, our CPO said, turned out to be
engagement bait.
And I was like, fuck, that sucks.
But it's coming.
It's coming if it's
so easy to, you know, for you and I both.
Yeah, I'm sure people are
sharing.
But there are a lot of prediction market trading bots
and we're launching our CLI, I'm
pretty sure this week.
It's ready.
It's finished.
So you're going to be able to trade with agents on a myriad markets.
So CLI is launching this week.
And so that's for the reason that it's a lot.
A lot of people are using this technology.
So it's working.
I don't know if you have anything much more,
but.
Yeah,
I mean,
I'll go through a couple of quick headlines.
So Florida is going to sign their stable coin bill into law.
First state to do this.
So it's Senate bill 314 legal framework for how stable coins can be issued
and used for payments,
clarify rules around stable reserves, consumer protections, how digital dollars can be integrated.
It's also going to allow the state to accept stable coins for state payments like taxes, licenses,
and it's going to mirror the Genius Act.
So I think that's the first state we've seen do this.
So I'm expecting more of that to come.
And then big news out of CAST.
I am a Cast partner,
but I chose them for a reason.
I saw the partnership with Pudgy Penguin
card, and now, I mean, man,
$80 million Series A.
That is quite the raise.
That's insane.
Led by QED investors,
Left Lane Capital.
It's going to fund their next stage of growth.
They're like a neobank, right? So their digital
crypto card, you can connect.
You can deposit crypto. You can spend
effectively.
So let's talk about that. Let's go over it
because I've seen a lot about cash recently on the timeline.
Obviously, they did a penguin card, but I
saw their stuff before this. So this is like,
you know me, I'm a big fan of crypto credit cards.
That's all I use.
I don't use any other cards
in crypto credit cards at the moment
since like maybe a year.
I got the Gnosis one.
I got the MetaMask card.
I mean, I'm tempted to get this one
because I've heard a lot of great things.
And I've seen a lot of like,
you know, the tier lists
and this usually tends to be in the S tier.
The Gnosis one's good too, but do you use that or not yet?
Like how is that going?
Because fuck $80 million raise.
I'm not set up and using it yet, but I did play around with the app.
I deposited it into the app and it was all very easy to use.
I think it's, I think we can pretty confidently trust the team now with $80 million raise.
And what they're going to use the funds is to continue global growth,
build out their team, build out their compliance framework as well,
and expand their product.
Raise less than 18 months from launch.
So wow.
Launch to $80 million raise less than 18 months. So that's pretty damn fast.
That is definitely fast.
Wow.
Neobank's arguably one of the hottest sectors.
So you're telling me we need to like
a USD and a card?
A near a card?
A neo-bank prediction market?
Yeah.
That's impressive, dude.
I wonder what they
raise all this money from.
Do you know if it was like
institutional money
outside or inside of crypto?
QED investors,
left-line capital,
peak 15 partners,
HSG,
DST.
Yeah.
Yeah.
See,
that's,
that's the conversation
I've been having
with a lot of like
investors and co.
Cause obviously the,
the,
there's a lot of crypto funds,
but they're not deploying that much.
And also the,
the EVC within crypto
is like dried out a ton.
It's like,
it's like,
it's like 2022 levels.
But VC outside of crypto is not slowed down, right? this money there's a lot of money obviously mostly in ai and stuff neobank like you
said etc but there's a lot of cash um i was talking to someone this morning who was naming a few funds
to me and um they were all in the billion plus and they're all like liquid. Yeah. But they're not ones I've ever heard of in crypto.
So that thing is what's going to happen now as crypto, the gap between crypto and out like
normal land, whatever you want to call it, has kind of gone now with these rails that exist.
We're becoming one with finance.
So it's global finance.
I think you're going to see a lot of VCs get involved like that in companies that are outside of our bubble.
Yeah, it certainly makes sense.
And there's just more of a crossover.
It's like I'm looking through this announcement.
Cass has been hiring folks from Stripe,
Revolut, Binance, Circle.
So then they're pulling from a little bit more
mainstream companies so that alone can help
attract more of your standard,
more mainstream investors as well.
Looks like they're going to launch into cast business. That's interesting.
I feel like we haven't seen as many of these cards go the business route.
So that would be an interesting aspect of this to follow as well.
And yeah, I'm waiting on my budget card.
Ideally a fiscal. I never qualified for the'm waiting on my budget card. Ideally,
a fiscal.
I never qualified
for the MetaMask
fiscal card.
So I've only had
the digital
version of that.
So I actually have never
had a physical
crypto card.
They're great.
I also have the Revolut,
actually.
Revolut is phenomenal.
That's more of a bank,
et cetera,
but phenomenal.
Phenomenal.
Like,
incredible.
Do you have that in Canada
or is that more of a Euro card?
You have it in Europe.
It's big.
It's really big in Europe.
Huge.
Like,
it's huge in Europe.
Yeah.
Very, very big.
Everybody,
like,
you go to play for Massage,
they go Revolut.
Like,
straight up.
It's just huge in Europe.
there's a lot.
Yeah, I mean, look, all these cars do KYC, right?
I don't think there's a lot of neobanks
that we'll be able to do with no KYC.
I saw comments about this, but...
Yeah, it's part of the deal.
No one's forcing you to do it.
Yeah, no, exactly.
Just, yeah, I mean, I'm pretty KYC'd.
So here's what it is.
All right.
Is there anything else?
Yeah, just the Gandhi exploit.
Folks do need to be aware
if you missed this one.
They just posted about an hour ago
what they know about the exploit.
This is from the Gandhi team.
Appears to affect NFTs
not currently in active loans.
It's tied to an approval vulnerability
for purchase bundler,
which is one of their newer contracts
they have rolled out.
So I believe like if you use Gandhi like two years ago,
you're probably fine.
If you've used them in the last three to six months,
you're probably more exposed here.
And they gave some instructions here,
some contracts to make sure you go and go to revoke cash,
revoke approvals for these.
They're also telling folks not to basically interact on the platform at
all.
Don't
adjust your loans.
Don't pay them back. Don't do
anything effectively until they figure
this out. So
unfortunately, this is one of the bigger players
in the NMT
space right now.
hate to see it, but at least they've been on top of it.
Hopefully the damage is pretty small.
I think I saw a handful of folks who lost NFTs,
hoping they're going to be able to recover those in some capacity,
make those folks whole if they can.
It doesn't seem to have been super widespread,
at least so far.
So somewhat contained,
but not great there.
And Pudgy's launching Pudgy World.
Something with Pudgy World today.
So be on the lookout for that if you're in the Pudgy Eco.
And yeah, that's pretty much the roundup.
The weekends have been pretty quiet for the most part.
Very, yeah.
Quiet and boring, I'm not going to lie, Tyler.
I mean, it's a good time to touch grass and work and do other shit.
It is. I mean, the's a good time to touch grass and work and do other shit. It is.
I mean, the trenches have just been, like, dead.
I feel like no one in my chat is trading, like, anything.
There was some spark a few weeks ago.
It seemed like the roller coasters were going back up a little bit, right?
Like, we had some liveliness.
Like we had the punch came out and that was right after White Whale.
And then the Penguin went to 100 million and then Punch went to 40.
It seemed like things were doing okay, but yeah.
Yeah, I even Punch didn't even β it went to 40 mil quick.
Like that Penguin one went to like 200 mil.
Over 100, yeah. White whale 200.
I checked in on the monkey, though, this weekend. It seems
to be doing better.
You know, I know a lot of you
guys listening, you guys were only
caring about this monkey for your bag, but this
monkey is...
The actual monkey. Good to hear.
Yeah, the monkey's doing good, Tyler.
So anyways, let's get some money away.
We do have some updates for you guys.
We still have to figure out which days are best.
So now, obviously, five giveaways per week.
We're going to do two weighted weeks, two weighted giveaways per week,
but one weekly
and one will be monthly volume.
So that's fun
because I know the weighted right now
is weekly if I'm right on Wednesdays.
But now we're going to do
one of the two is going to be
a monthly weighted,
which is nice, right?
Because it allows you to,
you know, cook for a bit.
Like a lot of people are complaining
about how it resets on Monday.
So we're going to do that.
One of them that's not leaving, the Friday, that's a sub giveaway. Or maybe we move it to another
day. But either way, the sub giveaway is always going to be the same. It's going to be a sub
giveaway on kick. And two regulars as we've been going. So one will be silver tier, which is kind
of what we've been doing already. And one of them is going to be $250 a volume minimum.
So you see, it's not that much.
Charlie, if I were you today, I wouldn't do any weighted because weekly and monthly is tough right now.
Also, we just started the month and the week.
But let's either do a regular and then we'll figure it out later
for the weekdays how we do it.
We can even do subs on Monday.
We can play it around.
I think a Friday, Tyler, makes more sense to do a weighted weekly, right? Because if it
resets on Monday,
it makes no sense to wait a week on Wednesday, no?
I mean, we can set
the week to be whatever days we want. I kind of
like the sub Fridays. I feel like it's just like a
good vibe. It's true.
And the weighted Wednesday can be the monthly
weighted. We can do weighted
Tuesday. Yeah, I mean.
Yeah. We can sit and chat about it a little bit
so anyways i didn't say 250 i said 250 dollars um all right so yeah monthly so so you guys will
have uh we'll be able to but we'll put a tweet out guys we'll put a tweet out and we're going
to announce all of that and and so that you can save it, bookmark it, and do that.
But let us know what you think.
Monthly on Monday is not a bad idea.
Not this Monday we'll play around,
but monthly on Mondays, weekly on Wednesdays,
sub on Friday, then Tuesday and Thursday are regulars.
That's actually not a bad shout.
It's not a bad shout.
I need to add that.
I need to add that sound to my board here.
FAA!
All right.
So which one are we doing right now, Charlie?
Is it a regular?
Yeah.
Is it a regular silver tier?
Just because, you know.
All right.
Perfect.
Silly.
Right.
We'll see if you can make it up three days after calendar month I'll talk to the team and we'll get that sorted for you
guys so Sally Sally Sally oh Sally two two two two is that what it is Charlie can I don't know. I don't know that name. I don't know that name. Oh, it's Sally22222.
Is that what it is, Charlie?
Can you check?
Seems like it.
There was no...
There was no name.
Oh, it looks like the Crypt Confirmed.
There we are.
Also, congratulations to that person
that won 600.
We won that bet.
He had the UFC bet.
We got to pull it up.
I'm going to pull it up right now.
Shout out to Razor for giving that to us.
The looks maxer.
He did looks maxing analysis on UFC fighters,
and he picked the underdog correctly.
Yeah, we're one for one.
How about that?
6-6- that. Nice.
Nice.
So, yeah.
Nice win for GP115C24.
All right.
All right.
Can you stop
accusing each other of being botched?
Plus, by the way, thanks to our partners over Yeet,
before paying, we check if they're bots,
and if they're bots, then the payment doesn't go out.
So, you know.
And I love that there's a new game called The Yeet.
All right, Lamb Chop.
Okay, you want Lamb chop easy to wear.
Got to be tracks, right?
After a rough run on Friday, so it's got to be brighter today.
That was terrible rounds. And remember guys,
And remember, guys, to have to get $100 a day.
Before the treat, so to 374, so four of them.
One, two, three, and four.
Very clean, very easy.
Look at that.
The fourth one.
You're looking good, Sally.
And you got another chance.
And you already made $500.
Sally, what did you think?
Sally, you're looking good.
You're looking good, Sally.
We need an answer here.
What do you want to do?
Yeah, you're 374.
I feel bad stuff Friday.
I know I shouldn't.
Because there was two free games.
Lucas, I love you, dude.
Sally, we've got things to do.
All right, Sally, where do you want to go?
You got to tell us.
Cash, all right. Cash her.
All right.
All right.
Good cash. Not quite all our level.
Here, they would have gone to the tracks and lost.
So far, Sally's, you know,
I wouldn't put you in the Hall of Fame yet, but...
Disciplined.
All right, so this should be a good track.
So I like the tracks here.
All right, Sally.
So you already made $874.43.
Plus 500, so already $874.
Nice little start.
It's not bad. Very good one good one all right take her to the
tree she already said she'll she'll go after true okay the tree all right so take it after the tree
there you go oh sally sally i think we got some tracks here sally got some tracks here, Sally. Sally.
Sally.
Looking good, Sally.
I know she's on a lag,
but it's still killing me.
Dude, that tracks.
TTT.
Come on, you got to get the tracks on this one. Come on, Sally.
Let's take Sally TTT.
I like the comments.
But you guys crack me up in this chat, man.
Sally.
No, one more in cash.
All right, 485.
We'll do one more and then we'll talk about the cash.
Okay, Sally?
Sally!
Sally Sally Sally
W Sally
No Sally you're still alive
Why are you saying no
Because of my comment
I said one more
Sally look at you
Listen man
No way it's going to die on that space Two times in a row I said one more. Tyler, look at you. Listen, man.
No way it's going to die on that space two times in a row.
That was the death space last time.
No, it's a good round.
I've watched a lot of these
and I'm pretty sure it doesn't die there.
Mustangs, Sally.
Usually a wolf right there.
The eyes are scaring Sally. Usually a wolf right there.
The eyes are scaring, Sally.
All right, let's get a final answer.
All right, Sally, what is your final answer?
Pardon it, Sally.
Take it, Sally. The comments are just...
Oh, wow. Anthropic is suing the US government.
Wow.
Quel est votre dernier mot, Jean-Pierre?
Ah, in France.
That's exactly where I think of it.
I used to watch
Who Wants to be a Millionaire in France
as a kid.
Sally.
Sally, where you at?
Oh, shit.
Take it.
Oh, man.
It's only Monday and we're already doing this
alright
I mean I can't blame Sally
it's like $1,300
right
yeah
Friday was rough
she'll be walking away
with a good chunk
oh Sally
oh okay
she's on all stars
Sally's all stars
why is Sally Hall of Fame
oh yeah
honestly
every one of our listeners probably walks away with zero right just the $500 All-Stars. Oh, yeah. Wow. Honestly,
every one of our listeners probably walks away with zero,
right? Just the $500, and she's
walking away with $13 or whatever.
Man, we may be the worst,
bro. Every time we get hyped for
Listen Time, they go, and they cash, they make
money. I point blank
told her that there was no way it was going to die on that space.
And I was pressuring
her. Incredible run. Damn no way it was going to die on that space. And I was pressuring her.
Incredible run.
Damn.
Anthropics going to war with the USA.
That'll be a fun one to follow tomorrow.
I don't know if that's the best choice, but we'll talk about tomorrow.
We'll talk about it tomorrow.
Anyways, see you tomorrow morning, 10am, Eastern Standard Time.
Peace out.meγγ
γ Thank you.
