Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
FOMO HOUR: Tariff Pause Pumps Markets
Recorded: April 10, 2025 Duration: 1:02:18Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic crypto landscape, the launch of the Wayfinder token and Magic Eden's acquisition of Slingshot highlight significant developments. Meanwhile, regulatory shifts and evolving market trends signal a growing confidence among investors, as evidenced by recent stock market gains and the ongoing discussions around Bitcoin's speculative narratives.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here.
We are going to start the show in just a minute or two.
We're going to get our speakers up on stage while we wait.
A couple shout-outs.
Ibro, B. Frank, here at Krishna, GM, GM, Bill, Ray, Zanzibar, Antfex, Usha, GM,
Paps.
Alex.
Who else?
DMACC.
All right.
Who we got?
We've got Logie up here.
We've sent the request to FOMO.
We've sent the request to Marriott Sims.
I think whenever you're ready.
Let's kick it. Thank you. good morning good morning everyone g, GM, and welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour.
Today is Thursday, April 10th, 2025. Folks, another day for the history books is behind us.
Yesterday, the stock market posted its biggest daily gain since 2008.
I think arguably the third biggest of all time.
We had the crypto tokens soaring as well.
Recession odds are dropping.
And now the question is, is the worst behind us or are we in for more pain?
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
No Faroq, no Mando.
Mando is busy actively launching Yeet. I think it's
going alive. As we speak, he might pop in and say hello. But in his place, we still have Logan
and our favorite resident statistician, Sam, GM, how you doing?
What's up, boys? How's my sound going? Are we okay here?
Yeah, sounds great.
No issues. Perfect. I'm good, guys. Good to see you.
Thanks for hopping in.
I mean, up 12% in the stock market.
I got a fair bit of money in crypto, but I actually got more money in the stock market.
So I almost get more vocal when the stock market does crazy stuff.
So yeah, we're in a crazy week.
We're in similar boats there.
Logie, with the yellow backdrop, which I'm now associating with you, I actually like that
yellow backdrop quite a bit. How are you doing, Jim? I'm doing really well. Another beautiful day
here in Trujillo, Peru. I'm feeling pretty good. Can't complain. And of course, the market bump,
even if down a bit from yesterday's little peak there, that just adds a little bit of fun to the
day. It was a fun day. You got to enjoy the
green days. If you can't enjoy the green days, why are you even here? Why show up every day?
Your existence is going to be miserable. Folks, what are we talking about on today's show?
Trump told everyone to be cool. And then a few hours later, he paused all the tariffs,
except for China. It does seem like the rhetoric might be dialing down. There might be a China negotiation on the table. We'll talk about that. The European Union agreed to a
90-day pause. CPI, inflation, soft print this morning. Markets rallying but dipping here this
morning. So we'll talk about that. Can we trust the rally or not? Fastest runners on the board
yesterday. Prompt, huge debut here this morning. A lot of FUD out there. So we're going to address the FUD.
Talk is that a buyer's sell. This Bitcoin Ponzi keeps cooking over on Abstract, doing shockingly
well. The Senate confirmed crypto-friendly SEC chair, Paul Atkins. Magic Eden. Major acquisition.
They bought Slingshot. A lot of folks thought that was one of the best trading apps that we had.
That was a big acquisition. It pumps runes. Pups is ups.
Shockingly.
We'll see if it pumps ordinals as well.
We'll get Sam's thoughts on that.
We might do a yeet preview as well.
Before we dive in, I want to give a shout out to our partners,
starting with Galaxis.
Galaxis is a Web3 platform empowering creators and brands
to build unstoppable communities with full ownership and independence,
trusted by icons like Donald Trump, Steve Aoki, Mike Tyson, and the NBA,
shaping together the future of engagement.
And Wallet Connect is the connectivity network
shaping the future of on-chain UX.
If you've connected to a Web3 app, you've seen Wallet Connect.
That blue logo, it's everywhere.
An icon of trust in crypto, as recognizable as Visa at the checkout.
If you want to learn more, follow at Wallet Connect on X and Telegram
to stay ahead of what's next.
And our new show partner, Yeet, yeet.com.
We've got the ref link scrolling at the bottom of the screen, folks.
If you want to be eligible for our daily Yeet contest,
go ahead and sign up.
Enter the code FOMOHOUR in that referral code section under your profile
to make sure you qualify.
Those are going to start next week.
So we are very excited for our new partnership.
With that, let's go ahead and dive into the market report.
Sims, if you want to play the music, I'll do my Mando impression here.
Oh. All right. Love the transition music. That was going to clear my head.
So let's take a look at the board here, folks.
So Bitcoin up four and a half percent here today.
We're holding right around 81,000.
ETH up five and a half percent.
XRP up nine percent.
That's the top mover in majors.
SOL at 113.
Up quite a bit over yesterday,
but retracing here this morning.
If we take a look at the CNBC board,
so stock's down about 2% or 3% so far on the open.
Let's look at the 10-year.
10-year is down a decent chunk.
Since yesterday, it was 4.4, back at 4.3%.
So those are some of the key numbers out there.
The story, of course, is out of Donald Trump.
So yesterday, paused the tariffs, 90-day pause,
to let these negotiations start to unfold with one caveat of China. The China
tariffs, I think, were bumped to 115% or 125. The number is rocketing by the day. The others are
down to 10%. We saw the EU respond this morning. They are going to do a reciprocal pause as well
for 90 days while we start to sort this out.
So some positive news there.
The market loved it.
Yesterday, we saw massive candles across the crypto board.
XRP and Sol were some of the winners.
Hype was a big winner.
Farcoin as well.
Several stocks soared.
Well, I think MicroStrategy stock was one of the top movers on the board yesterday.
It was up something like 25%, giving back some of those gains here today as well. But they were
a huge winner. I think the question is, and we're starting to see these takes the morning after.
Everyone was euphoric yesterday, it felt like, at least coming out of the doom that we were in,
but now has too much damage already been done.
So I think that is a question that's on a lot of folks' minds here this
morning. Sam, I'll toss it to you.
Just first like high level reactions to what played out yesterday.
Like, were you surprised and how are you feeling on Thursday, April 10th?
Yeah. One thing I do want to say,
PO has been in my DMs asking me to come on his MicroStrategy podcast.
And I'll say it here.
I'm going to do it.
I'm doing it.
So we can tell Pio I'm going on that podcast.
All right.
He's been asking for a while.
Mando is on there.
I'll go on.
So, yeah, I'm just getting that out of the way first.
We can cut that and just send that over to Pio.
that and just send that over to him. Look, three months ago, a move like this would have rocked
Donald Trump. A move where he did something in stock markets went down 15% in one month.
That's the type, the way that Trump was talking, the way the administration was talking,
golden era for America. And we can't can't lie that like the stock market's
part of that. And it was certainly part of the way that he measured his performance in the first
term, you know, was very tuned into the stock market. And we got this crazy move. And, and,
and the dialogue shifted from like, you know, Navarro and people were saying markets are going
to go up over time. But Trump and Besson started saying things like, this is about Main Street, not Wall Street.
Wall Street's not what we were optimizing for.
It actually started going antagonistic a bit towards the stock market, saying the stock market is about globalists and about Wall Street.
And I actually started to feel like investors were becoming a bit of like an enemy.
So I was a little worried that he wasn't going to reverse course.
And that was clearly wrong. You know, so I think to me, there's just a huge sigh of relief as someone who is an investor,
as someone who spends a lot of time in markets, that what we saw was that Trump was willing to
make moves based on what the tenure was doing and based on what the stock market was doing.
So I think that that was like, to me, that that in itself is is very positive news. I think the way to push tariffs forward, regardless of your view of tariffs, I think that this way of going forward with starting with 10% for everybody, giving it the 90-day time that something of this magnitude deserves to get to the negotiations where you want is simply a better route than the way he initially kind of proposed on Liberation Day. So I think, you know, I think objectively, just rationally, this is a much better approach
to get a feel.
You know, one thing I learned at Uber is you never know how your ideas are going to impact
the marketplace.
You think you know what it will happen, but you have no idea because marketplaces are
just massive, massive organisms with so many different players. So starting with something like 10%, giving the marketplace time to sort itself out,
probably the logistics of tariffs have to be difficult. How does a company in the back end
even do a 45% tariff to Thailand in three days? It just strikes me as something that needs time.
So I think from a signaling perspective, I was relieved because I came into this administration expecting him to be extremely market friendly. I got very doubtful of that two days ago from the way he was talking about this market move.
I think was positive. And I just think objectively, you know, as we embark on this like higher tariff
kind of paradigm, easing in makes a lot more sense than the way we did it before.
Absolutely. I think that's hard to argue. I think folks rooting for that across both sides.
A lot of follow up questions here. One, I think there was somewhat consensus reply,
like that's the art of the deal, baby.
He just nailed it.
Curious for your reactions to the art of the deal.
I mean, I have a hard time seeing what we got here. I think, you know, in return, it's very hard to differentiate
because we still don't really know exactly what he wants,
and we don't know exactly, exactly like what the timeline says he wants
is often very very wrong but you know if if the goal here was to get the 10-year lower which was
a lot of people thought while the 10 years higher than before liberation day if the goal was to
make asset prices do well well i i think our biggest you know i saw some commentary that like
the eu was saying that every day was hurting the u.s more than it was hurting them because because
every day the stock market was
volatile and kind of in shambles, it gave everyone else more leverage.
So it almost feels like that's what played out here.
It's like our markets tanked, so he switched.
It wasn't like there were concessions from other people.
Like what is it that we got in return from other folks in exchange for this?
So I personally would not say that this was like a masterclass in deal making.
I could probably wiggle my way into how it could be,
but that's certainly not my reaction here.
The 10 year is a lot higher than before it started,
because while we have leverage over our partners,
they have leverage over us as well.
Our assets are broadly owned globally.
They can dump them, They can do certain things.
And I think we saw that.
And that was a lot of what got us to the table.
And I say us as American.
I know a lot of our listeners aren't American.
But for me, it's hard to really look at this and say that we are in a significantly better place than we were on Tuesday of last week.
Yeah, I think that's a fair take.
I think it's too early to,
to rate this whole thing as a passer failing.
We were chatting about that before the show and this is something that's going
to play out over months and years. Oh yeah.
You can't say this is like that tariffs are a failure. I just say like,
was liberation day brilliant deal making like that.
I have a hard time saying that. Yeah. I think that that's very fair.
And objectively,
I think I said a few days ago that the simplest explanation that was that this was a negotiation tactic that he started
extremely high with with intentions of coming down i think that is proving out to be the the
reality here the thing i struggle with this idea of negotiations. I think of the one with Canada. With Canada,
we slapped some tariffs on them. Then at the end of the day, we got a fentanyl czar in return.
Then everyone said, out of the deal, the tariffs are over. If he had called Canada and said,
hey, we're going to slap 25% tariffs on you tomorrow if you don't give us a fentanyl czar,
they would have said, take 10 of them. We will hire 10. We don't care. If people
know what they can do to get these things done ahead of time, I think people would do
it. It's just a lot of the commentary also out of the EU, I've read a little bit about
their negotiations, that they weren't even sure what would make them happen.
It's very hard to know what people are getting. I mean, Switzerland doesn't have any tariffs
on America, and they got slapped with big ones.
What are we actually trying to squeeze from them?
What are we getting from them?
A lot of this feels more theatrical than it feels like a deliberate
negotiation tactic in my view because I don't even know what the wins are.
If we're getting the Panama Canal or whatever,
stuff that we actually care about, if we're getting fentanyl down
or stuff that we care about, that's one thing.
But what are these wins that we're getting?
It just feels very vague.
Yeah, I think that's fair.
Objectively, more losses than wins.
It piqued my interest to see the Main Street conversation really start in the last couple days
and then a quick pivot that benefited Wall Street the most. I mean, I guess you could argue it benefits everyone.
But I think you mentioned it,
it felt like he was attacking markets specifically the stock market,
but they just caved in to do something to help save the stock market to a
degree. So like what is, which is it?
Main street and wall Street are very tied.
I mean, it's like, who's going to give these jobs to Main Street?
You know, if the big corporates have their equity value down 15% a month,
are they more or less likely to build a factory?
You know, it's like, it's all very, I think it's all very tied.
And I think when you start hearing Main Street, not Wall Street,
I think that's like a bit of a, I'm sure there are scenarios when main street benefits on wall street doesn't
doesn't benefit but to me i hear populism in that it's like it's like we don't care about this thing
that's failing we don't care about this thing that's rejecting us we care about you like
well you care about it it's just rejecting you so you have to kind of shift your your dialogue
yeah exactly loge i've seen you nodding along curious for your high level reactions to all
this no i think stats uh did a great job of breaking it down.
The signaling that you mentioned, this whole Main Street versus Wall Street,
and is Wall Street an enemy? I felt the same sort of way the last two days.
It didn't make a lot of sense to me that this narrative started to come out.
I think in particular, from my view, that Besson comment from two days ago
was the one that spooked me the most.
But I think yesterday exactly was that. It was a concession towards Wall Street, which makes those of us on this show and many of those watching who have investments and who will continue to invest feel just a little bit better.
I know there's going to be some craziness, of course, tons of volatility. That's just the way that this administration operates. But being willing not to run us even
further into the ground without conceding in some way that, hey, you know what, this might not be
the best path forward for all parties involved was kind of nice yesterday. So the sell-off today
or whatever it may be, I don't think yesterday was an end all be all we're out of the woods type thing.
Um, but it, to me, it was a little bit of a reassurance that, um, you know, I don't have to call my mom, tell her to just like pack up the 401k or something like that.
Um, so we can feel a little bit better moving forward.
One non-serious thing about the Main Street versus Wall Street was there were some
excellent tweets yesterday at the conclusion of that. Kind of the FU Main Street type things.
I can't remember the quotes off the top of my head. I just remember laughing and giggling
at a few of them. Here's the one that tickled me quite a bit.
I'll pull it up for those who follow along on the stream.
We'll get the stream posted here in just a minute, folks.
Eat shit Main Street as stocks started to rally.
I thought that was humorous.
It was a great day to be on X for sure.
It was relief, much needed relief.
But I do think the question is now we're starting to look ahead.
A lot of these big companies have the earnings coming up they're gonna have to share some forward-looking guidance
it's like what the hell do you do in the next 90 days like there's still so much uncertainty
and i think that's what's being reflected i think you know you had the markets truly tanking because
there really was worry there that like the markets were just no longer a priority like that this
main street versus wall street thing was going on now, okay, well, there's that plus the fact that the numbers,
the tariff numbers were pretty excessive.
But now the question is just like, okay, like what is a 10% tariff on the world?
And how does that impact Google's earnings?
How does that impact Apple's earnings?
How does that impact their visibility, their guidance?
Like those are ultimately the stock market's driven by how much money
our corporations make, you know?
And I think now, like, so we had a huge rebound, I think, on the idea that this was becoming a priority again and that we weren't going to jump off the cliff.
But I think now you're seeing, all right, well, now we have to see, does this actually matter?
If you actually look at the numbers, I think I'm not an economist myself, but something like 15% of GDP is imports.
It's like a few trillion dollars. You throw on a 10% of GDP is imports. It's like a few trillion dollars.
You throw on a 10% tariff on it, it's a few hundred billion dollars total.
And the stock market was down 9 trillion at its worst.
So there is a piece of me that wonders, is the removal of market cap we've seen just excessive relative to the actual potential impact here.
Yeah, I think that's very fair and a widely shared concern at this point in time.
Like one notable-
Concerns slash relief.
I'm also saying maybe like these moves are overblown relative to actually the dollar value
value impact that a 10% tariff is actually going to have.
impact that a 10% tariff is actually going to have.
Yeah, also very fair.
Yeah.
Also very fair.
I think one of the,
the metrics that have been touted across trad five outside of even just our,
our CT circles is the U S recession odds.
They peaked around 70% yesterday.
I think,
I think I saw it at 60.
I think Cal sheet,
perhaps at 68 back down to 50,
53 right now live.
If you had to pick a side in this, what side are you picking?
Logan, I'll toss it to you and then we'll go to the same.
Logan, why don't you go because my kids are out there.
Sure thing.
Yeah, well, the most difficult part of this conversation for me, Tyler,
are just the potential semantic arguments listed down below here.
So the true definition and the way Polymarket is grading is based on the two straight negative quarters of GDP. Is that right?
Yes.
So you can't really get yourself around that. Trump is going to do everything he can. The administration is going to do everything they can to avoid using words like recession and conceding in that way.
But all things considered,
we had negative in Q1 and so much
uncertainty here. I think I'd probably be on the
yes side at this number.
It truly is a coin flip, even just with the odds as well.
I think it's correctly.
Yeah.
I would have liked either side more if and when they were, you know, as the spread increases.
You know, this is one of those things.
You can often do this with some prediction markets.
Like, as you deviate from 50%, just kind of sell in and
out of, just like you'd be trading in and out of momentum.
Because I do think it's closer to probably a coin flip type thing.
It was a good buy at 37 cents. Probably
maybe a decent sell at 70 cents. Because I don't think we have
the Q1 numbers.
I saw them floating around somewhere between minus three and a half percent
minus 2.7%.
So not only it has to be more negative than that,
as I understand it.
okay.
Yeah.
So you have to have two decreasing quarters in a row where it's decreasing
quarter over quarter.
Decreasing quarters.
Yeah.
What do you think, Tyler?
Gun to my head, if I had to bet this, I would bet yes,
because of still all the uncertainty out there.
Less because of the immediate tariff impacts,
but more on just people kind of tightening up.
I think we've already seen some decreases in industries like tourism
and just bigger
companies perhaps not wanting to spend until
there's a little bit more certainty around
what the next six to
six months to four years looks like.
I mean, I'll be honest.
I went out to dinner with friends. I was like, let's go
somewhere cheaper than normal tonight. I'm already
seeing, with markets down, you're just
like, I don't want to spend as much money like like i've seen it in my own activity uh you know
our friend was geese was talking about how he had a friend from germany who almost canceled a trip
here recently like i yeah i don't know how much tourism actually matters for gdp but it does feel
like the inclinate like that there are a couple factors that i'm just seeing in my own circles of people
being a bit less kind of spend heavy than like two months ago i made a big donation to my school
like we it's amazing how quickly that changed can i interest you guys in a few months in peru
what's your daily live rate what's your daily uh it's What's your daily, uh, it's, it's very low. Uh, it's a little
bit different right now. Cause, um, uh, my fiance's family's in, so we've been going to dinner and
I've been picking up checks and stuff. But for example, we, we got dinner for five people, a
bottle of wine, um, and desserts last night. And I think it might've been $50 maybe. That's nice.
And you probably went high end.
It was above average place.
Not super high end, but above average, I'd say.
Are you in a city or where are you?
Yeah, I'm in the third largest city in Peru, Trujillo.
It's definitely not a tourist hotspot by any means.
Not like Lima, Cusco, or some of those others, but it's a city.
That's great.
That's awesome.
I think we talked about the big picture. let's maybe start talking about some market impacts so we
talked about stocks um bitcoin at one point it almost printed a ten thousand dollar candle
yesterday because it was at 74k on tuesday night around 8 30 and then it got to 80 where did it get to yesterday 83 4 so like a nine thousand
dollar bottom to top move um now holding out 81 3 sam i think we've chatted about this a little
bit it does feel like bitcoin's outperformance at this point is is notable perhaps under gold
but still like compared to the rest of the markets i mean it's up two percent this month i mean i think like the more that the u.s positions itself less as like
the center hotbed of the world's activity uh the more like the u.s dollar perhaps shows signs that
it doesn't want to be a reserve currency i'm not sure if we've seen that in currency markets, but at least in rhetoric.
This is the narrative that Bitcoin was made for.
I will say that Bitcoin historically has not traded like the narratives it's made for.
A lot of the narratives that we discuss on the timeline
just aren't reflected in the marketplace.
But if you look at assets relative to where they were
when Trump was elected,
I mean, Bitcoin is still by far one of the biggest outperformers.
Obviously, gold probably more so.
But, you know, we're still at 81,000
despite what's been a very rocky couple of months.
So I think the market is starting to favor Bitcoin
in the scheme of risk assets.
The, you know, the downside is like,
you can't say that for anything else
in the crypto complex other than Farcoin.
Like, I mean, like ETH, SOUL, Dote, pretty much everything is getting hammered the way the rest of the risk asset world is getting hammered.
But it does feel like Bitcoin itself.
The narrative that this would make, we're getting hints.
We're getting hints that it could be perhaps that perhaps there's some chance of a bit of decoupling from just NASDAQ, which I think is kind of what the people in the space would like to see.
Now, to be fair, being correlated with NASDAQ has been a great thing to be correlated with over the past 15 years.
Like being a risk asset, this has been a very strong risk asset stretch for a couple of decades.
But yeah, I'm starting to think like maybe there are hints that we're going to start getting a bit like if if I had incremental dollars to put in, like what I put into NASDAQ, what I put into Bitcoin, like, yeah, I think Bitcoin probably right now.
It feels like a better thing to own.
I tend to agree.
And I think there's this whole – like there's the Dalio argument that we're moving towards a new world order, multipolar.
Like there's the Dalio argument that we're moving towards a new world order,
multipolar.
You had the,
like we didn't even have a chance to dive into that statement from the U.S.
Economic Advisor Council where they basically came out and said,
there's a lot of problems having the dollar be the global reserve currency.
And how effectively,
like if you read the pieces,
like they were comfortable moving away from that.
What was my interpretation of that?
And I don't think that's something that happens immediately. It probably plays out over decades.
But that would be a, I mean, Bitcoin's a winner there, right?
I mean, the other thing that's clear is that foreign money wants to be less entangled in the
US, and rightfully so, right? Like, We're making it very clear that there is volatility to doing business with us, that maybe we don't even want this level of people to be so intertwined with U.S. decision making.
So if you're China, if you're Europe, if you're really Australia, if you're other economies and you can randomly get massive tariffs slapped on you or other things like that. And
this whole dialogue about how you have to negotiate now, when two weeks ago,
this wasn't on the table, I can see a world where it goes, all right, maybe going forward,
we got to distance ourselves a little bit and perhaps Bitcoin becomes a winner there.
Yeah. I think this is a story that was floating around yesterday, mostly because VanEck included it in a post or a webinar.
The news actually came out about a month ago, but Russia has started to use cryptocurrencies to settle oil trade.
So China and Russia are doing oil deals using Bitcoin, Tether, and ETH, actually.
ETH was in the mix.
Did that get verified, or was that like, I saw some comments saying it's unverified at this point.
It was from Reuters.
They said they had four sources that they didn't want to name because of the sensitivity of the deal.
The other thing that posts where everyone was saying this is fake news
was that World Liberty was selling their ETH.
Is that, did we get word on that?
I didn't dig in.
I thought that was fake though.
That felt more fake.
And I think more people would have been,
like you think you could trust Arkham first off.
Like Arkham is not always the most reliable source for whatever reason.
Like for a protocol that is built on like on-chain tracking like this should be very determinable like was
this their wallets or not and like they're using words like maybe and so i don't think it was i
think we would have seen more loud cries in the timeline yeah it is uh people we always do say
everything is on chain everything's on train on chain but we don't say how hard it is sometimes to link wallets with actual human beings.
Like it is a bit of a wrench, I think, in the everything's on chain argument because it's very hard often to link wallets with people unless you're like have mad, mad information.
Yeah, very true.
I think the full verdict's still out on that, but leaning no.
I think the full verdict is still out on that, but leaning no.
I mean, looking at some of the other winners,
I talk about hype a lot on the show, and there is a reason.
There was a point where it was one of the top movers yesterday.
It hit $10, I think $9.50 at the bottom, now back to $14,
so it's above the exploit bubble.
Logie, I guess, any reactions to any of the top movers that we saw no no major reactions i mean
i think the the group was led by a cohort of sorry the the move was led by a cohort of assets that
you'd anticipate being the strongest if there was a very strong market-wide boost um so you know
ripple we talked about that yesterday. That was just
coincidental that it ripped right after the show. No pun intended. But, you know, AVAX,
like all those things, Doge, I mean, 10 to 15%, right? That's the type of group that
if you are looking to find a little basket of performance, expecting a larger market-wide bounce. That's the type of group that
you can always rely on. Barcoin, man, this has been awesome. I don't even own any, but it's
been awesome to see just the resurgence here. What? 260% gain in the last month. Talk about
outperformance. Pretty wild wild it hit that yesterday
i think folks are going to see like how much is this going to pop on the good news and it delivered
what do you think drives far coin tyler like it's such a like we talk about it all the time but uh
what do you think actually are the drivers here of price large mind share outside of just crypto
twitter circles so like eric balcunas is a
notable etf analyst yesterday he organically was like someone had posted about how the stock market
was rallying and he said and fart coin rallied even more why is it always why is it always fart
coin it's it's in it's rent free and tradifies heads so i think that's one and they have huge
audiences like you look at some of our our influencers following accounts versus some of theirs.
They're in the millions, some of these folks.
So that's bigger reach.
I think the general decline of new options and memes that have survived,
and people are consolidating into winners.
Yeah, I think it's the simplest like dumb coin like all the other meme
coins doge she whatever you know they're meme coins you know they're like in you know there's
no intrinsic value but those don't necessarily represent anything beyond now doge i think has
graduated to that level at this point right like you kind of recognize doge but fart coin like everybody knows
a fart i mean i do too it's like it's like my favorite thing to to send to my i don't have any
crypto friends where i live you know and it's a lot of like kind of people who are big into
financial markets who just aren't into crypto so that's always the meme you send them i was more
asking like what are the things that make it go down?
Like this thing can go, it went down to like, it can tank as well.
Like say, you saw, you know, is it like illiquid?
Are there insiders?
Like are there insiders is the wrong word.
Are there whales who manipulate it?
Like, is there outside of the bull case?
Like what are the things that move it in either direction?
Or is it just, I mean,
it does a lot of,
it does a ton of perps volume.
Like on hyper liquid.
Like let's see.
Like it's,
I think this is,
this ranking here is effectively in the perps trading volume.
So it's sixth of all the crypto assets on,
on hype.
And some days those are long. some days those are shorts. Right.
And like you,
you've got the mercenaries out there who are more than happy to flip short on
these things. Um, so like that, and that's where you can drive, uh,
some of the cell cascades down as well. Um,
yeah, but I mean, again, and like the liquidity pools are small,
smaller compared to some of your larger tokens,
of course.
So less capital can,
can drive the more big moves in either direction.
But it's hard to argue that it's not one of the biggest winners.
And now like the,
the lifetime chart starting to look good again,
like for a while I had to kind of zoom into the last month to,
to show the picture that i
my bias wanted to show but now zoom out if you believe in meme coins as like what they're meant
to be this feels like the perfect embodiment yeah and this people don't need to know this but it is
pretty hilarious that uh an ai agent actually came up with this idea.
That is the origin.
Truth Terminal came up with the perfect meme coin, and it turned out it was damn right.
Maybe the robots have a chance.
I think there's a non-zero chance that, let's say crypto fades into irrelevance,
that Fartcoin is literally the top coin.
Maybe not over Bitcoin. I think it could be the top mean 100 there's a there's a non-zero chance of that i think there's
a non-zero chance it has its own chain fart chain i don't know that we want that man we're
introducing too much stuff now execution risk with our chain maybe it creates like doge doge
has a chain right well i mean yeah but that's how it started that was
its own blockchain oh yeah i guess i didn't know the full story there well we talked about this
point i'm sure we'll talk about it more in other ai news we had a huge uh tge today it's a prompt
the wayfinder token has gone live it's opening at a $40 million market cap, $180 million FDV.
Some FUD out there.
Logia, you've been, we were talking before the show, you're a day one cacher.
How are you feeling?
What are your reactions here on a big TG day?
Yeah, obviously excited that it's finally out.
I've mentioned this a few times in the last few days,
but it was awesome to have Kalos and Adrian on last week to see a little bit more about what the vision is and the future is for Wayfinder, which is kind of the protocol or platform that Prompt is powering.
I feel okay.
I think, you know, difficult conditions to launch into and all things considered when you compare this to a lot of the other AI tokens, like we pulled up the board yesterday, $174 million FTV, a $40 million market cap.
Not all that bad.
My expectations were higher, but perhaps that's just me being anchored to some of those previous
lofty AI token valuations and some, of course of course, hopium as a, you know,
as a prompt or sorry, as a prime cacher in response, receiving prompt. Um, but I feel,
I feel okay. Otherwise I haven't been able to dig too much into all of the, the FUD.
I know you mentioned what cashers feeling maybe a little under, um,
saying underpaid doesn't seem right,
but you know what I mean?
Under rewarded for locking up their prime tokens.
So I can't comment just because I haven't,
I haven't actually seen mine,
what it looks like to either join in or to say,
no, you know, it's not too bad.
But I totally recognize the potential fund there.
If, you know, people who have dedicated themselves to this ecosystem, locked up assets in this ecosystem, and have felt like on the other end after providing some level of commitment that their commitment was not rewarded or seen as such.
Yeah, I think two primary FUD angles.
One, the distribution to the Prime cashers felt low.
And I'm speaking personally as well.
That was my initial reaction because I put a healthy amount into the Prime token
that had cashed for the 900-day max.
And I got like 30% of the tokens that people in the top 100 on the Kido YAT board got
for no capital commitment.
Right.
So that's tough to stomach.
Yeah.
And then the other FUD angles, I think folks, this is a ridiculous FUD angle.
People didn't know that they were going to have the requirements that you had to be an emerging yapper to get the YAP points.
So basically, if you already had a certain number of smart followers certain
number of apps you didn't get the reward whatever i'm pretty i'm pretty sure they communicated that
like a hundred times yeah so i think this is an easy one to cross out and you didn't put anything
up for that other than a little bit of your time so you spent 30 minutes you you put some stuff in
the chat gbt and you schedule some tweets. No one feels bad for you.
I do feel for the prime cashers.
But with all that said, that is the FUD.
But I think, I mean, look at this AI board.
So Prompt is right now coming in at the 12th token
by market cap on this list.
It's below the GOAT list. It's below the goat token.
It's below act.
It's below change EPT.
It's below AI XBT.
That does not make sense.
It's like from a relative value perspective,
this token is too cheap.
Like for,
for what prompt is.
Yeah.
And I guess for those,
if you, if you didn't watch our interview
with the founders,
go back and do it.
But like effectively what
the Wayfinder tools enable,
they've got effectively
a natural language
smart contract coding agent.
They have,
but basically you can write
whatever crypto program you want
limited by your imagination.
Effectively.
They've got an on-chain trading copilot.
Midas that allows you to do effectively whatever you want to do.
It maps out the steps for you and you can run simulations to see,
do you actually want to do this or not?
Which is also pretty much unlimited to like what you,
you know,
what type of transactions you want to do.
They've got the incentives in place to have folks,
people are incentivized to build out the bridges.
So like, let's say you want to bridge from Sol to ETH to Binance Smart Chain,
and you want to look for the best USDC yield across all three of those chains.
If they don't have the pass for that,
you will earn prompt tokens by building out the paths to help execute that
transaction for future people.
So I do genuinely think it's one of the strongest crypto AI products we have to date.
I think that one of the issues is that it's very hard to actually, like these relative valuations make sense.
It's very hard to back into absolute valuations.
And we anchor ourselves to valuations, which are a product of the amount of FOMO in the marketplace when they're launched.
valuations, which are a product of the amount of FOMO in the marketplace when they're launched.
It's like, are people like, I need to get this because tokens are ripping tomorrow and I'm going
to be able to sell it for more to someone in a couple of days and I'll buy it for today.
That is the question people are asking. And I think they're more anchoring themselves to
recent TGEs than saying, holy shit, AIXBT is at this market cap. So I need to buy prompt because
it's lower. That's just not the way the marketplace is rewarding people right now.
The key is how high is the FOMO that people think that they can sell it higher very soon
based on the way other TGEs have gone.
And we could not be in a worse environment for that.
Actually, I'm sure we could, but never say the environment around here can't get worse
but it has not been the environment
that you're going to jump into
for the sake of people FOMOing
a product
that actually creates
quite a bit of opportunity here
if you believe in prompt
if you believe in what the Wayfinder mission is
if you think that a product
like what they're providing and building prompt, if you believe in what the Wayfinder mission is, if you think that a product like
what they're providing and building is going to be actually useful for crypto participants,
either whether it be ourselves or the next generation, should there be one, of on-chain
active participants, then this doesn't seem all that bad as the 12th, you know, the 12th AI token at $40 million market cap.
I think, you know, just circling back to some of the FUD as well,
one of the issues that, you know, I totally can get behind a bit is
the communication stuff is difficult.
I think they were forthright about, to the best of their ability,
about, like, the dates.
But otherwise, tokenomic wise
they deviated quite differently from how others have communicated token launches right like there
was not a full packet 25 page packet with the tokenomics right not to my knowledge um has
anybody seen anything like that that doesn't mean that that's bad it's just that it was different
uh and like i don't i don't even know i don't even know what the tokenomics are i don't know
we were asking for the show tyler like so you've got prime locked up for five years i've got prime
locked up for five years like am i entitled to something a little bit you know down the road
as a result or was kind of everything smacked up front here? No, I mean, as I understand it, and I don't have the details,
I think you're right.
Maybe they haven't been shared,
but 40% are going to cashers and it's ongoing.
So it was not a upfront 40%,
but I don't know the specific details.
And I think that's also, you know, along.
I'm going to ask a dumb question,
just and maybe the listeners have this question.
Maybe they don't.
What are prime catchers?
So prime is the
token.
Caching is just staking, just another
word for staking, and Prime being the
parallel ecosystem token.
Okay, so people who have that stake
got access to the token.
So from the jump,
the primary ways
to earn Prompt was either
by holding the Prime token and staking it. I think there was a way to earn it was either by holding the prime token and
staking it.
I think there was a way to earn it via the avatars.
Well,
I don't know if that was passive or if you had to use those in the game,
those were going to be the primary ways you could do it.
And then they,
they enabled the social program,
with Kaido here in the,
in the last month or so.
folks,
I see Brett has joined us in the spaces right guy good good friend of the show
your hand is up do you have some comments on the on the friends prompt how are you doing friends
yeah i'd so okay so like you know i'm coming from the technical side of the house some fud that i
didn't hear you guys uh or maybe you don't aren't even aware of uh it's some of the smart contract fud from the
actual launch have you guys seen the recent exploit from the the kaito side of the house
that was breaking like right before we went we went live yeah well so i don't know if it's the
kaito side of the house but just like people claiming uh from the actual contract so like
there was one a flood piece like a day or two ago from PopPunk, right? He was like, looked at the contract after it was deployed and saw that it had like, you know, like 101 errors and like hard-coded values that are silly and, you know, stuff like that.
So there was some FUD around that of like the irony of a project that's coming to market as like this on-chain GPT thing that couldn't even deploy their own staking contract.
And then they already paused claims on the prompt stuff because there was an MEV front runner
because of how they coded the claims.
So anytime someone tried to claim,
someone stepped in front of it
because the claim didn't guarantee
that it had to go to the person
who was initiating the claim.
MEV bot was stepping in front of people
and they wrote, it's called a yoink.
So they were yoinking the actual claims
from people for a couple hours.
They've accumulated like 200 ETH from people that were trying to claim.
Wow.
So that might impact price action a little bit.
Yeah.
It certainly has.
So thanks for sharing that.
I wasn't aware of the details.
So that's going to hurt some of the sentiment day one.
I will say in disclosure
i i did buy some this morning so i am a bag holder um and that's not the right word but i i chose to
buy i i had an airdrop and instead of selling it i chose to buy more i do think this type of launch
enables the type of price action that people can rally behind versus like where you had
the TGEs that come out super high, overvalued, and then everyone races to sell. And then this,
the chart looks terrible for the rest of time versus one that comes out at a more reasonable
valuation and people can actually choose to buy in for longer term or actually hold their airdrops.
So I think this is set up for that. So we will certainly see.
Brad, thank you for joining us.
A couple other quick topics here.
This Ponzi game on the abstract keeps going, folks.
I think it's at the point where it's worth talking about.
It's just a classic game where you get this.
It's a mining game.
It's called Bitcoin, playoff Bitcoin, similar to tokenomics.
And effectively, there's ways that you can buy equipment with their token and you mine it.
And then yesterday, they released an update
where you can sell some of your equipment back at 90%,
and then you can upgrade your equipment.
Anyways, the token is doing quite well.
So the game is staying alive.
I don't know.
There's much more to say about it than that.
But fun to see some success playing out on Abstract these days.
Some folks having fun with this one.
I think the larger piece of news that we haven't touched on yet,
major acquisition in the NFT slash broader crypto space,
Magic Eden acquired Slingshot.
Slingshot is a trading app.
I think people trade meme coins.
This is whatever coins you want.
I was not a user, but I am in chats and friends with folks
who were power users who said that this was the best trading app
on the market.
So this is a big one.
Logie, I see you're nodding your head.
What are your reactions to this one? Is this a big win logia see you're not in your head what what are your reactions to
this one is this a big one here right me yeah i think so i mean magic eden wants to sort of be
one of those everything apps at this point right um yeah the nfc trading they of course are
to my knowledge the hub for bitcoin stuff it's not much really happening there at this point in time. Look at that green.
Yeah.
Oh, yay.
Some green.
I don't even see RSIC on the board.
It's how bad it's got.
You don't want to see it.
Yeah.
Nevertheless, to be an everything type app, you got to have everything.
And you have to have a product that supports supports that and they didn't really have token
trading before right didn't have a way for folks now if you're using like the magic eden wallet so
i use like magic eden wallet from time to time for select things um you know there's some swaps
and stuff in there but otherwise there's no like simple trading platform via Magic Eaton. So this is an opportunity.
And it's almost a prerequisite if you want to be a big, big trading infrastructure beyond NFTs, of course.
It's a prerequisite to have token trading at this point in time.
We know from the OpenSea announcement long ago, they're going to be implementing that into OS2.
So this makes a lot
of sense to me it's you know it's a pretty natural fit um and they you know by acquiring slingshot
uh i have not used slingshot but yeah same same thing anecdotally i've seen pretty high praise for
for how purchasing tokens on the platform works yeah i guess i didn't realize it had the train
abstraction behind it which i actually think that is a huge unlock uh because it is a pain in the ass if you're like a native
salon and trader and then you see a token on base that you want to get into but those extra steps
like it is a real barrier so if they remove that away uh that that is a big benefit to the user
experience sam i'm curious for your thoughts maybe just kind of part two just like where
what's the
stack ranking of nft marketplaces right now across yeah i mean i have a few thoughts here i mean one
is like magic eden is at its core an nft company but i think it's just clear right now that as much
as we want to sit around and wait for the glory days of nfts to come back like it's just not going
to pay the bills uh at least you know we do something else. Right now you just have to be outside of just the NFT space.
Like ordinals are so cooked.
But ETH NFTs are as well.
Like when it was the last time you heard someone talk about a Solana NFT.
Like it's just been, it just has no mind share right now.
And we've been waiting for over a year and it's not working.
So it's not surprising that these guys feel like they want to expand.
One thing I was thinking is like,
has M&A ever gone well in the crypto space?
Like, do we have like the Google buys YouTube,
Facebook buys Instagram examples that show that M&A
can be immensely accretive to companies?
But M&A is very hard and it requires very good leadership
and operation skills. And to be honest, I actually know it's very hard and it requires very good leadership and operation skills.
And to be honest, I actually know the Magic Eating guys quite well.
I've spent a fair bit of time with them and I think they're as good operators as you're going to get in the space.
So, you know, it's certainly not a team I count out, but it's not like, it just feels like something that hasn't like really made headlines aside of the initial announcement in our space. And the third thing is that I have no idea
anything about Slingshot,
but there are a lot of crypto companies
that are actually willing to be bought very cheap.
Like AquaHires are common.
I have no idea if this was one of them.
Perhaps not.
But there are the amount of companies
that want to get acquired
because it's hard to get by as a business in this space, you know?
So for, I, but again,
I almost feel uncomfortable saying that because I just don't have enough
context on this product to know kind of where it stands in that,
in that rank order.
But I have seen a lot of like acquisition announcements on the timeline
where kind of three weeks ago,
I had heard that the acquired company was like shopping around,
like basically like aqua hire type situations
it's clearly a direction that the nft marketplaces are going i think all the so
blur is just kind of out to launch they're they're happy with their current product it seems
openc leaned into token trading magic eden clearly has and then tensor with vector
right yeah so like it's it's front facing but at the
same time i think vector has had some success i guess if they're standalone apps people will use
them but like i i don't think people are going to nft marketplaces to trade crypto tokens yeah
no so i think open c is going to have to figure that out for their app experience, I think. Because Slingshot's got users.
Vector has users.
And I haven't heard great things about Magic Eden's moving to wallets.
I personally don't use it.
It's not great.
It's not great.
People are still using Phantom and Rabi and, and, and Rabi and frickin'
MetaMask or whatever. That's my sense at least.
Ogi, real quick, but market impacted this, this story for both of you.
So I guess that the new speculation for runes is that they're going to be treatable on Slingshot.
That doesn't answer the question for why anyone would buy runes,
which there is still no good answer for that question.
But clearly the market liked it.
This is some of the most green we've seen.
And granted, probably just somewhat of a bounce.
Scroll down.
Keep going.
Show me it.
Just show it.
It's red on the deck.
Can you believe that?
Stop it.
Jeez.
Dude, ARCIC is such a mess.
I fumbled a large, decent chunk six-figure drop, which is now worth almost zero.
Effing hell.
But we live and we learn.
There's just no...
Yeah, it's an interesting case study. Why are runes such a fail? They've been a fail as meme coins have done well and as Bitcoin has done well. And meme coins on Bitcoin. ever had and the most bullish Bitcoin environment we
It's an interesting case study.
Why are runes such a fail?
had had in a little while. I mean, obviously Bitcoin used to go up a thousand percent per
month or whatever, but like in one of the more bullish recent Bitcoin environments,
certainly after the election, that meme coins on Bitcoin were just such a colossal fail.
A lot of what I try to do is figure out what drives prices and
what makes things work here what makes things fail and like if you knew certain things you know
then what which stuff could you infer went up and you know i haven't really wrapped my head around
why this despite everything else like just could not take off it's a tough one i don't have the
answer either i think people will say like the point to wealth effect just wait. It's a tough one. I don't have the answer either. I think people will say,
they'll point to wealth effect,
just wait till there's a wealth effect.
I mean, we had a wealth effect in January, right?
Arguably one of the biggest wealth effects
that on-chain traders have had.
One thing I think is so important for any asset
is that you have one thing
that kind of surprisingly takes off.
Like once Dogecoin takes off
and becomes a 10 billion
dollar meme coin like then everything else could be the next next dogecoin and everything else
once punks take off then jpegs can be valuable and once you know and and board apes and all
these other things come up because we know that we've seen some certain some some duration to
the pumps we've seen you know in this market when pepe took off, that opens the floodgates for WIF and all these other
things to kind of be the next one.
But I almost feel like you need that FOMO source, that father of all FOMO, and to just
make people move into the space, make people set up the wallets.
I mean, I personally still don't even know how to trade rooms.
There has been nothing yet that has made me be like, I got to figure out this process to chase any of this stuff.
And I think that that's – and that first one can't be manufactured.
Like if you look at Punks, if you look at Dogecoin, I mean, Pepe was manufactured, so maybe not.
But like almost all these things, like it feels like – but you could argue Pepe was kind of chasing Doge too. You just need that one thing that kind of
chromy squiggles that surprises people and that
injects the FOMO into the marketplace that is 100%
necessary for anything to do well. And in AI, you had it as well with
AI, XBT and a few others. Yeah, it's hard to see what that catalyst
is going to be. Maybe we'll be shocked.
We're going to close the show here in just a minute,
but this tweet from DGMD
kind of dropped my jaw there
yesterday when I saw this. I saw you retweeted
as well, Sam.
He priced our current NFTs
in ETH as of the December
16, 2024 prices, so four months
ago. CryptoPunks are at
14.9 ETH in those ETH terms.
Pudgies are at three.
Squiggles are 1.5.
I mean, this is...
Someone forgot to tell this guy that one ETH is one ETH, man.
So I think it's fair to be a little disappointed in some of the price action.
Do you guys...
It is... Like, I love punks, man. I'm like... I'm scared to be a little disappointed in some of the price action. Do you guys, it is like, I love punks, man. I'm like, I'm, I'm a huge, I just,
I, I'm a, I have like the collector's FOMO. I like them.
I like every time I announce a punks, I'm like, damn, I kind of want to know.
And like, I really like punks, but yeah,
you have to be worried about the fact that you like this thing that has nothing
to do with punks. Like the ETH price is kind of like going to be guiding your
future.
We're down against the punk for worse the punk bitcoin spread is going the wrong way the punk bitcoin spread is going the wrong way and it's all because of freaking ethereum
but we will continue to track it almost daily on this show because it is one of my favorite
spreads and i agree with you that punks are incredibly collectible and i also hope to to
have another one like this this one, for instance.
This beautiful blonde.
You like the blonde girl.
What an incredible punk that is.
You know what was a really good tweet that I saw about this NFT thing recently?
It was actually from Kevin DeGaads, who I believe left DeGaads well before the downfall.
He said, here's the real reason most NFT projects failed.
They mistook speculation for product market fit.
And it really does kind of, I mean, can you say it any simpler?
That's probably...
Say that again?
They mistook...
Yeah, speculation for product market fit.
Yeah.
No, I mean, yeah.
I mean, it's the issue that all crypto faces.
AI face the same thing. I mean, I actually say it was more acute with AI, where there was this idea that like, look at NVIDIA, like AI is going to be huge. AIXBT is the way you do that in crypto. And suddenly, you know, virtuals is a $3 billion token and AIXBT is hundreds of millions of dollars. And it was, but at the end of the day, it was all speculation driven.
And it can be hard.
I do still like the collectible product market fit.
I think that the collectible product market fit is there.
But when other tokens became utility tokens, it becomes very hard to grow into the price points.
The price points are just too high
yeah even even at current prices like tens of thousands of dollars for apes or whatever like
for something that's anything but a collectible i think is is going to be hard to fill
you could argue it's a collectible and i think that that's the best argument for it i think the
bull case for scarce good digital collectibles is strong as ever and getting stronger the problem is with
the the non-scarce ones and and how do you get into that or the non-collectible ones right you
know it's like i think we miss like most of this stuff just doesn't have provenance like i you know
mutant apes for example like how many people are like damn i really want you know a grin mutant
ape right now like you know i know, I just, I just,
I don't know if they ever crossed that threshold to which people are really
like, this is going to be valuable in 10 years.
Whereas I think there is,
there is a lot of assumption or at least speculation that punks will be like
that.
There's something about the narrative and the provenance that they will.
Yeah, I agree.
We'll see what, what tests the,
what stands the test of time.
Folks,
we're four minutes over on conversation today,
Sam,
thank you so much for joining us,
but that is going to be it.
That is our show.
I want to thank our listeners as always want to thank our partners.
Thank my co-host and Sam for joining us.
Folks.
We'll be back tomorrow at 10 a.m.
Eastern to close out the week till then.
Go make it a great day.
Goodbye. .
