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FOMO HOUR: Trump TACOs & Crypto Rebounds
Recorded: Jan. 22, 2026 Duration: 0:56:49Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored significant trends including Kathy Wood's bullish Bitcoin forecast, the launch of new tokens like Gway and Fight, and strategic moves such as Farcaster's acquisition. The conversation also highlighted the evolving regulatory landscape with the Senate's crypto market structure bill and the implications of stablecoin adoption on Bitcoin's future.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you.ん
ん so
gm everyone and welcome to another episode of fomo hour today is thursday january 22nd
2026 folks it is a big thursday trump taco on terrace we thought he would he did the verdict
is in we've got kathy wood laying out the case for Bitcoin to $800K by 2030.
The Solana SKR token is going absolutely parabolic.
I feel like action is heating up a bit.
Are we back? Are we back? Dare we say it?
We're going to talk about it on today's show.
I'm your host, Tyler D.
No Farouk, no man today.
They are traveling, I believe, down to the Miami area.
Here live in the air. but I've got Logan on
with me. It's been a few weeks. Logan, GM, how you doing? Hey, good morning, Tyler. I'm doing well.
January has flown by. The holidays are through. Market may be starting to come to life a little
bit. Who knows? We sure hope. We will see. We're going to talk about it on today's show.
So what are we talking about?
We're going to get into the markets.
I'll do my best Mando impression walking us through.
I got word from the air that the charts aren't looking so great.
So take all that with a grain of salt.
We'll talk markets.
Stocks are green.
Gold's green.
Crypto was rebounding, but kind of selling
off a little bit. This Solana SKR token is going absolutely parabolic. It's actually a big week for
tokens. This Gway token came out. Now this Fight token is out. We've also got public dats launching
meme coins. So we'll talk about that. Kathy Wood's latest outlook for 2026. She has the outrageous price targets once again.
And we'll walk through some of the assumptions that she is laying out for that. We have Farcaster
acquired the end of decentralized social, so to speak, perhaps. No, that's one of Vitalik's core
focuses still, I believe. Maybe it's not over just yet.
The crypto market structure bill.
Looks like they're going to move forward with it.
We have another crypto IPO with BitGo and a few other headlines. If we have enough time, we will get into those.
For Yeet, no Yeet giveaway today without Faroq.
Tomorrow we might do double spins.
We'll see how things go. But for today, there
won't be any heat. With that being said, let's just go ahead and get right into the markets.
I'll fire up the screen share. For those who are in the stream, we are streaming live on X and
Kick here. If you want to see the video, Bitcoin down half percent. 89.2. Not great.
If you were following it live, the big headline that happened yesterday,
after his speech in Davos just a few hours later,
Trump released the announcement.
Basically, the framework for a deal for Greenland has been put in place.
He's no longer going to have to levy the tariffs on the European Union.
So you see this,
this ridiculous price action where we had wicked down from 90 K all the way
to into 87,
five,
we just totally V shaped,
recovered it all the way back to 90 K,
but it seems like we can't really break out.
So we are,
we kind of chopped all night right at that 90K level, now back towards 89.
So not the strongest comeback, not the rebound we wanted to see.
ETH down 1%, 29.47, so still hanging out below 3,000.
Salon down 1%, 127.85.
Looking through the rest of the board.
Yes, stocks, they open the morning up here a bit.
Looking at NASDAQ's up half a percent here.
Metals, as I mentioned, are Greensville golds back up. It's at 4840.
Still within striking distance of 5k. It briefly sold off
on the Trump taco yesterday, but it's not rebounded
silver back at 94 as well. So the metals are looking good.
Natural gas continues just to source up another 13%.
Kind of unbelievable.
An asset, somewhat native to your home state.
They're looking.
So the natural gas providers are feeling good about this, I suppose.
Going through the rest of this, let's see.
ETF outflows were quite, quite bad yesterday.
700 million out of the Bitcoin ETFs.
The three-day outflow total now, 1.6 billion.
So really giving back pretty much all the inflows from the prior weeks.
We just keep doing this.
We're green for a handful of days and then red.
ETH was pretty much a similar story.
We got some macro figures here this morning. Kind of a lot actually came through. So the
U.S. third quarter GDP came in, looks like slightly above expectations, 4.4%.
We've got some jobless claim numbers that were actually fairly good. I think both were slight beats there.
The impact, rate cut odds actually dropped a tick.
So looking out at April, January is pretty much a lock.
It's already 95% no cut.
But looking now, three months down the road, we're at 72% for no cuts through April.
That was closer to 67 a week.
It's not a huge move, 5% move, but going the wrong
way for those who are hoping for more rate cuts here in the
near future. So that's one impact.
I think there was another couple headlines that came out right before the show. PCE came out.
It looks like it's basically in line with expectations uh personal spending up a bit the other uh true
flation is the other one that's been floating around this morning anthony pompliano has been
uh pounding the table on true flation not sure if you've seen that but that their their calculus
is uh showing us at at 1.46%.
I think it actually may have dropped to 1.2.
Yeah, here we are two hours ago,
us inflation down 1.2%.
I think Kathy would commented on this too.
Yeah.
Someone who's in the headlines.
Yeah.
Wild.
It's interesting.
They point to eggs.
I am a consumer.
Yeah.
I was buying eggs this past weekend, and I did pause briefly to think through how much cheaper they were than they had been.
So you can get a dozen cage-free eggs.
Interesting.
Three bucks, $3.50.
Those were 15% higher last year, maybe 100% higher there briefly when eggs were going up so i can't
confirm the egg prices are down um the other household durables and then alcoholic beverages
alcohol beverages going down because there's no demand right no one's buying them uh these
companies are sitting on huge uh surplus stockpiles of alcohol no one's buying it um
do you think the alcohol trend is,
is going to stick around? Logan, do you have a read on that?
Man, it is really, it's really bizarre. Um, I totally understand a lot of the health stuff.
Uh, and of course alcohol, as well as every other vice, you know, you need to be able to manage it.
Uh, and there are people that have, um, you know, problems doing so. So I definitely understand the
trend against, but at the same time, I've actually really taken to the kind of the social
lubricant i know stats has been posted about that right how important that was that he and his wife
getting together i think i saw a tweet like that the other day um and yeah so i do feel like it's
it's flipped like too much the other way um it's kind of it's kind of crazy i don't know what that
says about the stockpiles, the prices.
I think I would be interested.
I'm not doing this right now.
Uh, but I would be interested in potentially monitoring for like a buy low opportunity.
You know what I mean?
On some of these alcohol, uh, producers, distributors, um, I haven't looked at any of the stocks,
so they may still be way too overvalued or something like that.
But that would be a trend that to me, could see flipping back pretty you know not quickly but
with with high velocity i should say it when it flips back i think it could flip back with velocity
i'm kind of with you there and some of your reasoning i'm also in the social camp and i
think it's uh it's it's good for the soul to go out relax have a few drinks it also
i think there's it um what's the word not not uh it makes folks more vulnerable you have more real
conversations over time uh than when you're but that's we don't need to do a whole show
on that that the problem logie is these gop. GOP ones do impact your desire and the amount of alcohol you consume.
So that trend is going to continue up and to the right.
So that is a thorn in big alcohol's side, so to speak.
We'll see if the inflation numbers keep continuing to go down, this is a real, if this is somewhat accurate, directionally accurate, then there's more potential drivers to continue cutting rates.
So we'll see.
We cut rates three times in Q4, and it didn't matter for crypto prices, unfortunately.
So it's not necessarily.
I thought it was really interesting.
I watched the show, maybe it was last week or two weeks ago.
You guys had Joseph Chalm from Sharplink on.
And the conditional on the rate cut thing,
I thought he was pretty blunt about that.
If we cut, what did he say?
Only 50 basis points, not going to be good for crypto.
If we cut 100 plus, good for crypto. I haven't
seen too many other, maybe I'm just missing them because my algorithm is terrible, but I haven't
seen too many other clear cut examples of forecasting based on the rate cuts thus far.
Of course, we're rooting for them and expecting that it will matter, but that was more of a
formulaic response, which would give some indication as to how many cuts may be required for something impactful to happen in the market.
Yeah, that was one of my biggest takeaways from that interview as well.
It was the first time I heard anyone be that specific about the rate cut odds and their impact on the markets.
And the problem is, look, I'm showing December 31st.
We're at 45% just to get a single cut.
to get one
or two effectively.
So now we're only at 20%
chance to get Shalom's
Sweet Zone. Not great.
Those odds were
like, where were these a month ago?
Let's see.
250 was, yeah.
So we moved down quite a bit.
The odds of us getting to 275, 300 zones, so three cuts,
was it 25% a month ago?
Now it's down to 17.
The odds of four cuts were at 12, now down to five.
But we'll see how much sway the new Fed share has.
And, of course, there's going to be a lot more factors at play in all this.
Pulling back to crypto prices, or I guess the big macro headline of the day, the Trump taco.
Were you surprised about that?
Have you been following the EU tariffs, debacle, whatever you want to call it?
Super, super closely.
Like not with great detail on the intricacies but the the taco stuff is just
outlandish at this point how spot on it continues to be um so i'm not shocked in any way shape or
form that you know sort of found i don't think you can maybe call it resolution but a path to
it yesterday without um drastic well i guess it was somewhat drastic to the upside,
but without a drastic market response.
It kind of erasing some of the additional fears like it's happened,
I don't know how many times.
I'm sure there's data actually out there.
I'm sure somebody's got a dashboard somewhere about the rebounds that come
as a result of Trump says something, market spook.
Trump says we're not going to do that thing or just nothing ever happens,
markets rebound.
I'm sure there's data out there about it.
The thing is,
the markets were spooked,
but it wasn't really much of a move.
I guess it played out so quickly.
It all played out over the long holiday weekend for the most part.
And the way it looked like Tuesday was already going to be kind of a red
day.
Like that's where the indicators were pointing on Friday before this all
happened.
So we saw a 2% drop in stocks, 2% to 3%, max 7% maybe.
Of course, Bitcoin took a bigger hit on all that, as it seems to do.
And then it's not recovering as fast, unfortunately.
Markets have 35% of the deal getting done by March 31st, which is soon.
So it does look like something is going to happen. As for what that
means on markets, I think it's probably just neutral for the most part, maybe long-term,
slightly bullish, but nothing that's going to impact us anymore. So I think we can move on
from that. I guess as broader zoomed out, this is one of the first times we've talked in 2026.
How have you been feeling about broader crypto market action?
We had Bitcoin start the year with kind of a boom, maybe a soft boom.
We basically grinded up from 88K to 97K over the course of a couple of weeks.
And now we gave it all back.
Yeah.
What's your outlook here?
You know, I feel fine.
I've been, you know, just with the big holiday of course i was completely checked out you know and of course ramping back up into
what we're now starting to get better headlines not necessarily in terms of price action but just
like you know more substantive headlines uh i feel i feel fine you know the chop has not really
bothered me too much um but i see it on the timeline, what timeline is left. Everybody just feels so troubled that there hasn't been the crazy volatile moves up or down. Of course, we're not rooting for them to go down, but you're not getting the 10% candles.
There's a ton of impatience. We've talked about that a lot in this market and ecosystem. That's just kind of how it is with the short term nature of the trading of all assets in crypto. But I feel I feel fine. Generally, I, you know, I try not to get too anchored to the commentary from all the talking heads who have a vested interest in crypto going up. And when I say talking heads, I don't mean you and me. I mean, more important people, people like Tom Lee and, you know, Kathy Wood and Brian Armstrong,
whatever, try not to get too anchored to their commentary about things are getting better
institutionally things, you know, tokenization is going to be massive, you know, all this stuff.
But at the same time, it does feel like all those headlines just continue to kind of fly
under the radar in our little bubble because they're boring headlines they don't impact us on the front line trench stuff so it's really
difficult for us to fathom how impactful it may be long term so that's that's the type of stuff
that has me just feeling like you know i'm like somewhat apathetic to this grind and and the chop
uh because i expect long term based on these things that you're like
the cogs are still turning, even if they are turning slowly.
It's not like we've reversed or anything in my opinion. Yeah.
All that to say, I feel fine Tyler.
And you are, you know, front seat, the news desk every day,
pushing out articles and content for, for decrypt.
I feel like one of the themes so far in 2026 is it's been very macro driven,
right?
It's been a lot of the boring headlines.
It is.
in less,
you know,
on chain trends,
less on chain action.
Is that kind of your,
your broader are less.
The thing I've,
I've really noticed.
And in this,
I mean,
this started a while ago and,
it's been hitting us over the head for a while,
but the tokenization stuff, you know, that we have all those big headlines at the end of last year. And this started a while ago, and it's been hitting us over the head for a while,
the tokenization stuff.
We had all those big headlines at the end of last year with Fink talking about it. He had, of course, talked about it far before then,
but there was that big piece that came out near the end of the year
with some of his thoughts, Larry Fink from BlackRock.
And then Tom Lee has been talking about it.
Joseph Chalam came on this show and talked about it.
And it seems to be that trend that, you know, is loosely tied,
or maybe not even that loosely tied to some of the market structure stuff as well
about what might eventually unfold.
That is the big thing for me that I keep thinking about right now,
about the tokenization, the RWA stuff.
You have the New York Stock Exchange information from last week.
And those are all sort of,
you know, relatively adjacent to each other. But in this broader theme of like, things are going
to come on chain. The financial instruments that run the world right now are slowly or maybe not
so slowly coming on chain, or at least being connected in some way to the blockchains that
we interact with every single day. And although that is not driving favor or
fortune to speculative assets on those particular blockchains, you know, like meme coins and things
like that, it is, you know, just further entrenching. I know I've used that word on the
show a lot, but further entrenching traditional finance with crypto. I think that long term,
of course, is net good for us. So I've been paying not super, super close attention to the
micro details of these announcements, but I've just paying not super, super close attention to the micro details of
these announcements, but I've just been, I don't know, allowing myself to sort of embrace this.
This is what is the success is going to look like. It's going to be for these big institutions,
the big money, it's all going to happen with the boring stuff. And you sort of just kind of accept
that and win on it to the best of your ability right uh and that that's
that's you know whether that like i don't really have much ethereum exposure but i've been thinking
a lot about that uh some of that again i'm not trying to be anchored or have recency bias and
talking to those folks and reading and writing those stories but thinking about you know people
keep talking about this trend and i mean the data bears it out right the rwa chart just keep going
up and up and up and up and up and to the right and there's calls for like what kathy would say like 28 trillion dollars or some shit um yeah we'll
get into that but i mean it's tough it's tough to it's tough to ignore that stuff um and and
they're far closer to it than i am so just kind of accepting you know crypto may be boring but that
might be the only path to true success in the end.
Yeah, boring, I think, and ETH being more included in the conversation, I think is a change over the last year or so.
I feel like it was just Bitcoin, and now it is Bitcoin and ETH.
I'll be curious to see what else gets included.
I mean, Kathy also wrote about Hyperliquid, so we'll get into her comments.
There's a bit to unpack.
It's boring,
but there still is action on chain.
one,
I guess,
I guess you could call it a layup trade.
I missed the layup.
I was on the sidelines watching the layup in real time.
The salon of secret coin,
my God layup.
I would not have called it that. I mean,
it was a layup trade.
So I,
well,
I guess, let me say it was
one of the easier forexes on chain that we've seen for anyone who got in the token partially
because it was just so rapid so this token came out late on the 20th so tuesday night
opened at like 70 million 75 million uh fd or i guess market cap right over, right over a hundred.
So yeah, it's basically somewhere 120, 120 million FDV.
I was like, okay, that's, that's kind of the right valuation for this in a vacuum, right?
It wasn't short by any means, but it didn't seem like it was going to be some blockbuster
trade. And then it went sideways for the first almost 24 hours.
And then it just started grinding up.
And then last night just went totally parabolic.
It wicked to like 600 million FTV.
It's still sitting at 460 million FTV now, up 270% on the day.
And now I'm seeing more of the, the bull feces.
Um, I think part of it is like Solana with the second Solana ecosystem token that they're
selling millions of dollars worth of phones.
I guess I haven't looked at the stats specifically myself to know how many phones.
Yeah.
So they had, I've written about this a few times uh i believe
by august or something like that was which is when they started shipping globally um they had
it already had about 150 000 pre-orders um 150 000 devices i have no clue how many
iphones androids are out there in the world. Of course, there's billions,
nearly probably one to a person almost, not quite that. So relatively small in the grand scheme of things
as far as phones go,
but far more successful than the saga was, right?
The saga sold out based on the airdrop frenzy,
but didn't come out with any initial fanfare really outside of maybe diehards or those
who had uh forecasted a bit of the um speculation to come so i don't know this is a really
interesting thing to me to when i think about like comps like you said 120 million fdv seems
sort of fair to you when i think of comps the first thing that comes to my head is helium dpin they're not making the devices right but uh you know neatly connected to mobile web3 mobile
decentralized mobile whatever you want to you know bucket these things as i just looked as a 275
million fdv so seekers about what 170 million above that. So quite a bit above that. But that's
sort of the comp that was in my head. I would not have anticipated such a strong,
given the market environment, given some uncertainty in, again, to me, I put this
squarely in D-Pin. And whether that's fair or not, sector has token wise has been completely depressed for
like a really long time at least it feels like from from my perspective so i would not have
expected the success and that's why i pushed back on the layup stuff but of course yeah you uh you
had a slam dunk if you if you did make this trade a few days ago i i had never even considered um
making this trade to be quite honest are you a seeker owner
i'm not a seeker owner um i had the saga as you well aware full disclosure so
um you got burned we got burned logie yeah part of me that has that disdain for not getting any
secret tokens um but no i wasn't expecting anything i've seen some mixed numbers about so
30 for the airdrop for this um was it 30 wow i believe so and i think 20 of that and i'd have
to go back to the article i wrote maybe a few weeks ago when they announced the official day
i think 20 of the 30 was like already set aside for existing like season one seeker users and app developers and those
types of things so i really wasn't expecting the airdrop to be all that successful in terms of
like meaning that if you had a seeker phone you participated actively and you got a hundred
thousand tokens or whatever it was i i wasn't expecting to see like four or five figure airdrops
but yeah,
from at least on the timeline,
it's difficult to know exactly what is true in our space,
but from the timeline,
it seems like some folks have done quite well,
from a $500 phone.
Yeah.
The top tier got 750,000 tokens.
That was like $30,000 last night.
I think you had to do a lot to get to the top tier.
I think,
the average person got significantly less than that.
Um, you had to, uh, I'm trying to see if anyone replies has the actual numbers i haven't seen the actual specific tiers of of what got you which token allocations so a little grain of salt with
with all this i've seen folks saying they got 5 000 10 000 tokens but even that decent i think producer
sims got like a 60 airdrop but that was before the run-up so now that's 250 bucks probably
which is about a 50 discount on a working android phone or i think it's android uh that is you know
optionality for the future airdrops etc that's a pretty good deal. So I think if, let's say, the average person has $250
three days after airdrop or whatever, two days after airdrop,
I would say you did quite well in this instance,
even if on its face, $250 doesn't seem like a lot.
I feel like that is a pretty successful airdrop.
So kudos to Solana Mobile for initial initial going here we'll see how the phone
and the ecosystem the really interesting part about this right so this token has actually
really nothing to do with solana right uh the solana foundation solana the blockchain no i mean
this is solana mobile which is its own entity i know of course they they seem very much intertwined
um but the interesting part here is uh when i spoke to Emmett Hoyler, who's the GM of Solana Mobile, I spoke with him last May.
I think it was last May at Breakpoint or something when they had initially announced this token.
They very much want this to be an ecosystem token that ties the success of Solana Mobile, its future phones, if there are future phones, whatever.
All of the architecture stuff on the inside
app development this is that um user developer alignment that we've talked about a lot in crypto
that i think is a more tangible like quite literally because you have the phone but there's
a tangible understanding of user uh developer uh benefits aligning like so i't know. This is an interesting use case for me. I think
we'll see what happens. It's not
quite as clear to me in most of the
other instances on chain right now
how everyone is
aligned. But this one seems
quite clearly, right? Developers
who can earn more Seeker tokens
obviously want the Seeker token to do well.
And users who can earn Seeker tokens
by participating in the ecosystem want the Seeker token to do well. And users who can earn secret tokens by participating in the ecosystem
want the secret token to do well.
And they have an incentive to make the ecosystem as a whole better, more useful.
Right?
It makes sense to me versus like meme coin devs
or whatever else is happening on chain.
Yeah, I get that aspect of it.
49% staked already from the airdrop.
That's a pretty big number.
So that's helping reduce sell pressure.
Clearly, they did a nice job with the tokenomics on this.
I guess I'm still a bit bearish on crypto phones.
Selling well.
Maybe I'm wrong about that.
Who's the demographic?
That's the troubling part for me.
Of the 150,000 pre-orders, let's say there's 170 000 phones now i don't actually know the exact number
how many bought it just for this airdrop 90 90 so you bought you have 10 other 10 who maybe just
wanted to kind of see what the future of cryptos mobile was i don't know what the other percentage is how do you maintain those users
uh and this is this speaks to some of the decentralized social stuff we just had right
like how do you actually continue to gain users because you need to get more uh and maintain them
moving forward once the airdrop has taken place i bought the saga phone they just continue to support from it it did it was a worse
version of every prior android phone i never had but with a few more crypto integrations i think
that's an objective review of the phone yeah but if you love your secret tell me why in the comments
i would love to hear i saw a comment said the phone doesn't work that well the apps don't load sometimes or take
forever i have not used it uh the saga did just enough for me helped us out in a pinch when we
needed it um so i didn't really explore it too much but you remember i think that uh marcus
brownley i think his name is he's the big tech reviewer um he shit on the saga like pretty hard
when it came out um i'm not sure if he's reviewed the seeker pretty hard when it came out. Um,
I'm not sure if he's reviewed the seeker. I doubt it, but, uh, perhaps that will come in the future.
But our, my thought aside, clearly, uh,
the token is doing incredibly well and, uh,
I would not short this thing because it can,
this mark could be irrational. Um, big day from, for other tokens though.
So one of our darlings is the wrong word,
but one of the first dads we've ever really interviewed on this show,
we had them on DFDV, DeFi Development Co.,
one of the first major Solana dads,
they shocked the world and launched a meme coin.
Wow.
It's doing shockingly well.
It's up 100% just in the last hour or so.
So this one kind of caught everyone off,
everyone off guard.
So do you find DevCorp?
They posted on their Twitter.
I'll pull up the,
the announcement.
You and I both kind of found this at the same time.
You sent me the post.
I'd actually seen it.
They were talking about on the Bodago show,
so I'll give EZ and Ray credit for that.
Then DeFi DevCore announces,
don't, it is their disclaimer coin,
first ever publicly traded company created meme coin,
launched via Bonk Fund.
There's quite a few qualifiers in that statement so hard to uh argue with it i'll
assume it is uh first publicly traded company creating a meme coin launched via bond fund
so i think we've i think you were talking about this maybe we have had a public company launch a
meme there's a some like weird roundabout company, you know, completely unknown
that I think did something like this in the fall.
Did not get anywhere near this much attention,
of course, because it was much, much smaller than DFDB.
But all that aside, yeah, I mean, pretty close.
Even if you throw an asterisk on there,
pretty close to the first ever publicly traded company.
Just a disclaimer, don't buy it.
30% is going to sit on their balance sheet forever.
See what else we have from the announcement.
A little bit on the tokenomics, $420 billion supply, 40% in a pool, 20% eco growth community, 10% to early contributors.
So they gave their team 10% of this.
So I think there'll be a lot of eyes on how those 10% of the tokens move here over the near future.
DFTV, the stock, let's check in.
189 million market cap.
Yeah, hit those six months ones.
That'll give you a...
Yeah, it's down 75% over the past six months.
I mean, Sol it's down 75 over the past six months i mean salon is down i mean it's levered soul and souls down 50 of the last six months right so i mean it's been a
rough time to be a salon of dat um for for sure but i think it does raise the question of like
the like is the meme coin going to flip the dat?
Well, it's like an eighth of the way there, isn't it?
All right. More. Yeah.
I mean, they're less than 200 million coins, 25 million.
My God. A few things from my perspective here.
One on the 10% to,
so I was looking over the press release that I think was sent out on a PR Newswire or something like that earlier today.
It indicates about the 10% to what do they call it early contributors.
There's like a little asterisk in here that says certain DFDB employees will receive don't the meme coin as early contributors and may divest their holdings in accordance with the FDB is predefined employee sales plan. I don't,
I don't know what that is or where it is,
but that pretty much says they can and will sell it at some point.
Certain employees don't have a record of who those employees are.
That's an interesting, just a side note, footnote to this whole thing.
The other thing that to me is i don't really necessarily like hate this happening
because whatever like it was probably bound to happen i i just feel like in a way tarnished is
maybe harsh but if you were if you were trying to very seriously build a solana dap and suggest that you're going to be like this kind of forever
long-standing you know solana business that stakes its soul they have their own liquid stake
a token they did a lot of stuff you remember press releases are coming out every week here
they were actively trying and this is a continuation of the active trying
to me it's just like it adds a little bit of a blemish to like uh because this brings this is a
little bit of like crypto is a joke thing you know i mean i haven't seen it picked up by any
traditional financial media and laughed at yet my expectation is it will be right they kind of
created value out of thin air with a mean coin that's now on their balance sheet like is that
going to affect multiples and income statements?
Everybody's laughing at this.
Probably.
Probably.
That's my expectation.
So I don't care that you're trying these things.
If you're going to try this thing, I would have rather you probably did it last year when you were doing a bunch of other random stuff like partnering with Bonk
and partnering with other meme coins, which they did, right,
to try to, like, drum up and get tangential solana
community support i'm okay with that um and maybe just moving forward the brand feels a little more
funky fun innovative maybe that's good overall i don't know but this to me wipes away the i'm
we're a very professional focused at yeah thing, which I think is ultimately bad in my opinion.
Yeah. That's the reality.
Like if Joe Shalom does this for us,
but I'm probably selling my shares, right?
Like this is not what I want to see from a good professional dad.
Yeah. I don't think it's answered anywhere.
And of course there's all the disclaimers about there's no value.
Don't buy this, all this silly stuff.
Those types of meme coins have been tried 100 million times before, right, where people do the same thing.
But I would like to see the answer.
And maybe I can send a question to him at some point.
But I'd like to see the answer for how does this benefit shareholders?
you know,
You know, is the answer actually like, hey, yeah, exactly.
is the answer actually like,
Hey,
yeah,
exactly.
Is that the answer for real that we put this incredibly volatile meme coin,
30% of which,
you know,
we will own forever and we promise not to sell it.
Is the answer really that we benefited shareholders by adding whatever.
Now they can sell,
they can sell new,
they can sell more shares,
turn on the ATM,
buy more Solana,
baby.
If that's the answer i would be tremendously
disappointed what if it works what if the coin runs up to 180 it is working that's the thing
is like it's working right now uh their balance sheet is up um quite quite well uh thus far on
the day but i would anticipate some other rationale here.
I know there's some text, I think,
in the press release about how
showcasing the innovative nature
of on-chain finance,
showing what's possible,
doing it on-chain,
innovating by being the first publicly traded company
to do something like this.
Okay, sure.
And that's why I would have been
probably more okay with it last year.
But after the shine is worn off,
that's tremendously.
This feels like the last gasp type thing.
And that's the reason I don't like it.
Feels kind of like a Hail Mary stocks down 75% in six months.
Let's let's throw something at the wall and see what sticks.
Kind of,
I don't know that this was on their roadmap a year ago when,
when they were going down this route.
we'll certainly see,
of course our discussion here in FA,
do IOR.
I did buy a small amount of this for fun.
I bought two soul worth,
fully expecting to lose it.
So just,
do IOR.
Um, it's, it's a huge day for tokens though so we had that we had this gway token which is from that gas the uh the eat gas foundation i think
they kind of ripped everyone off on their their airdrops like i didn't get an airdrop i spent
over 100 000 on gas over the last few years. I think I saw similar complaints out there.
I'm not seeing the right token.
Oh, GUE is the token.
Let me see if I can find the real one.
But it's...
I think you're on it.
Not this one.
You were at the...
It had 118 million in liquidity.
Let's find it.
But the volume is less than one.
So that's the...
Oh, right, right. Yeah. There's oh right right yeah there's one right
above there with 22 million but that's also no volume i believe it's trading like 240 million
so that was another big launch here from this week and then this fight token also
i'm going to struggle to find this uh but a fight token came out this morning as well and then the sentient agi token
sent also came out uh so actually a really big day for uh for new tokens here i'm trying to see
if i can find this new sentient token for hours and 28 minutes this. This doesn't look like it's it. So we may have to circle back on that tomorrow.
But I feel like on-chain is feeling kind of dead-ish,
but a lot of new tokens that are seemingly doing pretty well.
So some capital is being generated, being airdropping.
The Seeker is a fairly big airdrop now,
30% of a $280 million token or whatever it's at.
So now maybe there'll be a little bit more cash
rolling around the system.
We've been asking for big airdrops.
It looks like we may have got a decent surprise
with Seeker there.
I do want to talk about the Cathie Wood stuff.
It's probably one of the more,
I mean, she always has,
I'm saying more interesting stories of the day.
She always has her pie in the sky targets.
She came out with her and ARK Invest laid out their 2026 outlook.
Big ideas, I believe is what they call it.
Across AI, across all their big themes, robotics, bio is in there.
Crypto had a fairly big portion.
Had a fairly big portion.
Let's just go all the way to the table of contents effectively.
So acceleration, AI infra, AI consumer operating, AI productivity is the first third of the report.
Bitcoin and DeFi middle 15, 20%.
So 20% of their big ideas is in the crypto space.
Multimix, which is bio, reusable rockets, robotics, distributed energy,
round out the last half of this.
I didn't get a chance to go through her entire report on crypto.
I did skim through the first few sections.
What jumped out to me on the Bitcoin section,
of course, her outlandish price targets. She did at least address some of
her prior year assumptions for the prior year's price targets. So basically she revised up her,
she has all of her like buckets of what gives Bitcoin value, institutional investment, digital
gold, emerging market safe haven, nation state treasuries, corporate treasuries, Bitcoin on chain financial services. So that's how she's creating a value
for Bitcoin. She basically kept the assumptions the same for four of the six categories,
it seems like. I think you could probably debate whether or not that's,
it was correctly those four unchanged. bitcoin on chain financial services i'd have
to take a hard look at but i guess that's a it's kind of a rounding error in her broader targets
so maybe not worth the time digital gold she revised up 37 because gold's up so much on the
year um and that estimated tam if we get the gold to digital gold rotation. Yeah. Which is a pretty giant if.
We certainly haven't seen it.
But then I will give her credit.
Emerging market safe haven.
She revised down by 80%.
Basically saying stable coins have replaced Bitcoin as the safe haven.
Which is logical.
I'm sorry.
No, go ahead.
This was the page that I stuck onto.
For those two assumption things as well,
she's been talking about the stablecoin thing for a while.
She revised down, she previously had like a $1.5 million Bitcoin price target by 2030.
She revised it down to $1.2 million.
That was in the fall as a result of stablecoin adoption.
So again, further revisions here because of the stablecoin adoption. So again, further revisions here
because of the stablecoin adoption.
That seems right and spot on to me.
The digital gold thing, as you mentioned,
I kind of chuckle looking at this
because it is,
and other institutions have used this exact thing
to forecast their Bitcoin price targets, right?
Bitcoin eating into the share of gold's total market cap, which I think all of us are kind of clinging to as like a please let that price targets, right? Bitcoin eating into the share of gold's total market cap,
which I think all of us are kind of clinging to
as like a please let that happen thing, right?
Especially as gold goes up.
But gold keeps going up and Bitcoin's going nowhere.
And like, what range of time do you need?
You know, it's tough to say.
Gold's going up, Bitcoin's going nowhere.
It's gone from what?
60,000 to 126,000 in like a little less than a year,
a little more than a year, whatever.
So maybe I'm being a little dramatic, given the time frames here, because gold did nothing for a long, long time, right?
But you would expect, or at least I am expecting, that if this is going to take hold,
Bitcoin should start moving probably a little bit tighter
with gold moving so strongly.
But maybe it's a laggard.
I don't know.
I'm not the smartest guy here.
I'm not the one that should be talking about those things.
But I got a chuckle out of that digital gold revision up type thing
just as a result of, of course, the gold market cap.
I want to believe the digital gold narrative,
and it does make sense to me conceptually.
But man, objectively, at some point, we have to start seeing it, right?
I know this is an arbitrary timeframe to a degree, but the day since Trump inaugurated,
I mean, that is a meaningful block of time, right?
It was a big change impacting the globe, impacting the US economy.
A lot of things have changed since Trump was inaugurated.
Gold's up 78%.
Bitcoin is down 14%.
Of course, if you zoom out two years, three years,
the numbers are drastically different.
So this is a fairly arbitrary example.
I do realize that.
But we do need to see the reversion.
And just day after, week after week,
we get these headlines where the safe haven asset goes up
and Bitcoin goes down and it's turrets risk on.
So I struggle to put that much.
And the thing is that is 65% of her target is digital gold.
So if it's wrong,
then you have to revise down her estimate by 65%.
Right.
And the numbers, we'll read them off here.
Her base case by 2030 is $16 trillion.
I guess this is just for Bitcoin.
So that's basically an 8X, a little over an 8X from here.
So that's $800K roughly.
Somewhere between $700K and $800K.
Full case is, I didn't even look,
significantly higher, 27,
it's closer to 30 trillion.
So that's a few.
I'm going to choose to believe, Tyler,
that it is just the wheels of regulation across the globe turning so slowly
that the sovereign nations
and everybody else that wants to do their rotation
to digital gold,
it's just going to take a little bit more time you know think about how long it took not that long in
terms of relatively speaking when it comes to regulation and stuff for us to get like the
executive order for the strategic bitcoin reserve those types of things felt like forever for those
of us in crypto media right every single day logging in hoping that it got to the desk or
was signed or whatever same thing with the states? All those bills that we're tracking every single day. It
feels like it took forever. I'm going to just hope that it's just taking forever in all those
other countries around the world that can so meaningfully impact the Bitcoin price and its
total market cap in the future. Oh, we at least do have the roadmap for what it does look like
when nation states do pile into an asset. I mean, China piling into gold clearly was a big driver of this price action over the last year.
And it went up.
$20 trillion asset went up 80%.
So it can happen at that scale.
The question is if and when the sovereign nations are going to pile in or not this like kind of
caught me off of guard a little bit it kind of just feels like she threw a 60 kegger uh companion
annual growth on crypto it's like hey this is our path to 28 joy we're just going to grow 60 per
year it's absurd and this one there's like some more realistic ones too that still don't feel
realistic to me i think i'm not sure if it was Bitwise or VanEck or, you know, one of those firms recently did this exact same experiment. They gave their 2026 and future stuff. It was a 20% annual. Like how, how? I don't know. That's just so wild to me. I can't get over those numbers. Like, I feel like it has to be just so much it has to be so much smaller but maybe not smart contracts could increase 54 annual rates two to three layer one smart contract platforms
take the lion's share yeah so she's she's already hinting at eath i think there's later in the deck
says that it's going to be the big winner for tokenization let's see if there's any other
takeaways uh from this and there's three big parts of the presentation.
DeFi shifting from networks to apps.
I think that's one that we've talked about, certainly on this show.
I think someone of a fairly consensus opinion,
although I'm kind of curious what that means for her,
some of her price targets, tokenized assets up and to the right.
I think another fairly consensus take.
Could tokenized assets grow 60% per year?
Maybe that is doable.
I would have to take a closer look at that sector across the globe and who the players
are, what the assets are, how close each of them are to coming on chain.
So I guess I could, on paper, I could see that.
Does that mean the tokens are going to go up by 60%?
Like that's another big open question, right?
That hasn't really been answered.
If you're a hyperliquid bull, you love to see like hyperliquid name dropped in this
along with pump fun and part of the arguments of
value switching from networks to applications as they talk about these super small fast agile
companies creating tremendous value per employee and how they think that that trend will continue
so decrypt that nice article on this.
If you want to dig into Kathy's 100-page Big Ideas,
you can find it over on the Decrypt page.
Thanks to Vizmaya for writing this up for Decrypt.
Other headlines here.
We've got a few minutes left in the show.
Farkaster acquired this surprise announcement.
I'll see if I'll have to go through Dan Romero.
He posted this on X.
I know he posted it on Farcaster,
but basically Nainar acquires Farcaster.
They're going to transfer ownership of the protocol,
the app and Clanker over to Nainar.
Not sure if you dug into this one much.
I know,
I believe Nainar was a team building in the
farcaster ecosystem they're they're worth something like 15 million or so according to their last
raise farcaster of course raised 150 million at 1 billion valuation and now it's kind of walking
away um some strange numbers involved in this acquisition. I'm curious, so this is for your reaction.
Yeah, really interesting.
You know, Farcaster made the decision, it feels like, not too long ago to kind of push into, like, wallet and token and stuff.
And so you had the Clanker acquisition, you had some more wallet stuff.
And at that point in time, I think there was some clamoring on the timeline
about, like, I don't know know distraction or detraction from social i think
the the bigger thing here is just like the coincidence of this happening right the biggest
in my opinion or at least the most relevant decentralized social media platform in our space
uh getting new stewardship moving forward one day after lens protocol probably the second largest
maybe the numbers in terms of users are different, but from the team behind Aave long ago, also getting a new steward moving forward.
Two of the biggest, if not the biggest, social platforms in our space, decentralized social platforms in our space in the span of two days both now looking for or now having new ownership
and looking for new directions basically and dan's statement there i don't believe nanar nanar had an
announcement i don't think it was super focused on what's next but he says in there something about
there will be a builder focus if you take a look at the one from lens protocol it talks about
global distribution right those types of things just basically needing more users getting it out to more people it hasn't hasn't worked yet and
vitalik had a really long post uh but from i believe the day before after the lens protocol
stuff just talking about how important it is right uh social decentralized social how he plans to
commit to it in 2026 and he's been using tool, I believe called Firefly to ensure that he is committing to it in 2026. And he says that
crypto projects have done it wrong thus far, right? Adding in social, sorry, adding in speculative
components more often than not. And it kind of is ruining everything and then calling that
innovation when it's not really innovation. And he seems to be excited by the fact that at least in the case of lens i don't know that he commented on uh farcaster
but excited about the fact that the new stewarding team is going to work on it for the sake of social
first right solving for the social stuff first putting the speculative aside so we'll see what
happens i spent a lot of time on farcaster. It would have been early 2024,
probably right before the big raise.
It was a good time.
It was a fun time on chain at that point.
I don't know that my experience was so much different
or so much better than my experience on X,
but at a time where X feels like it's in forever turmoil,
this is just a weird period. And go ahead, sorry. I think it's a weird turmoil this is a just a weird weird period um and and go ahead sorry
i think it's a weird period to give up and of course like i don't know you know their monthly
burn i don't i'm not in dan's shoes and what it's been like going through this process over the last
few years and i'm sure there's been you know a lot of headaches along the way. Uh, I mean, X is a total dumpster fire right now.
It is as bad as it's ever been. The algo, I click on one headline about sports, 25% of my feed is
sports for the next day. Um, and I thought it was briefly fixed last week. It's not fixed.
Briefly fixed.
Last week, it's not fixed.
It's still exactly the same.
Everyone's engagement is significantly down.
It's harder to find content for the people that you follow.
There's a laundry list of problems.
Where I'm going with this is like now,
this is the most ripe it's ever been
for us to actually explore moving what CT is,
crypto Twitter, to CF.
Could it have been Crypt farcaster? And we,
we had some devs on the show Q4 last year who still said like,
there are less people on farcaster,
but you are 10 times more likely to gain a user or maybe even a hundred times.
And I firmly believe that was the case, right?
Because of the folks who are still continuing to use that.
So I was caught a little off guard when I saw this.
Of course, I don't think that their user numbers are super strong by any means.
But I see the need for it.
Maybe this just wasn't the right iteration of it.
And we need a new iteration.
I don't know what it looks like.
Yeah, I've been completely removed from the crypto Twitter algorithm
because I think you know in some of our side chats have been i'm getting into
birding a little bit so i've engaged with a lot of birds bird posts over the last few months my
feed is like you're on bird twitter now yes i'm 75 percent bird twitter and i see like i don't even
see the news announcements until somebody posts them in you know like the decrypt slack or
something because you know,
I've just,
my timeline is all birds.
which is not bad.
That's not a bad thing,
especially at this point in time,
given the market conditions,
maybe everybody just needs to get their feet a little bit more bird
centric.
maybe you love the algo changes then.
So you're not being fed.
I'm not content from your,
those are following.
You're just getting the bird content,
just getting the bird content.
Yeah. It's, it's those are following. You're just getting the bird content, just getting the bird content. Yeah.
It's,
it's been really good.
You know what?
That might be a good note to end today's show.
There's a few other topics.
We have the big go IPO,
but actually it would be more fun to cover tomorrow until we have a full day
of market action.
The crypto market structure bill looks like the Senate ad committee is going
to run forward with this.
They're going to push it out next week,
even though they don't have bipartisan support yet.
So I'm expecting this to flop.
But that was a bit of a surprise headline from the day.
New Res starting to think about taking Bitcoin and ETH as collateral for mortgages.
Interesting headline.
It seems like it's still in the exploratory phase.
So I think we went around the horn on the big stuff.
How are we doing price-wise?
Below 89K.
Not great.
So it looks like we are going to keep chopping in the old range
until we get some kind of a catalyst up or down.
Certainly, we will be back tomorrow to let you know what is happening.
At least some excitement.
We got the Seeker token. We got the secret token.
We got some new tokens flying around.
So there are some things going on, even in the boring times.
I am really eager to see what that don't token looks like tomorrow.
Me too.
$25 million.
When I sent it to you right before the show or an hour before the show, you sent it at the same time.
It was like 12 million.
And I was like, okay, that seems right.
I was not expecting 25 million about an hour later.
Who knows?
Who knows?
Yeah.
And it's, it's selling off as soon as we pull it up.
We, we, we, we top, top ticked it on the show.
So we'll see if it's still around and relevant here tomorrow.
I want to thank all of our listeners for tuning in
as always. I want to thank you, Logan,
for jumping in. We'll be back
tomorrow to cover all
of the action. Until then,
go make it a beautiful day. Goodbye.
