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FOMO HOUR: Uptober Begins
Recorded: Oct. 1, 2025 Duration: 1:00:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic crypto landscape, the government shutdown has catalyzed a surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, while innovative projects like the 'One Trillion Club ETF' are set to reshape investment strategies. The NFT market is also witnessing significant growth, particularly with Punk Strategy tokens, as meme coins make a comeback, reflecting evolving trends in the industry.
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show here in just a minute.
I want to give a few shout-outs to the homies before the show begins.
Fun G, GM Belfort, Urking, GM, GM.
Thanks for joining us.
Pradeep, who else we got?
Sal, then. All right. GM Index 5. Thanks for joining us. Pradeep. Who else we got? Sal, then. All right.
GM, IndexFi.
Lay. I see you, Lay, GM.
Unipups. CJ.
Santee. GM, GM.
Thank you all for joining us. All right.
I think we got Logan up on stage. Producer Charlie, whenever you're ready.
Let's kick it. Thank you. GM everyone and welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour.
Today is Wednesday, October 1st, 2025.
And oh my, what a start to October it has been.
October looked like maybe just a pipe dream even a day or two ago but after a red hot night and a strong morning
October is looking like a very real possibility folks and we're gonna break it down on today's
show no froke or mando but we got Logan in the house Logan GM how you doing hey good morning
Tyler uh I'm doing really well man big. Big day yesterday for Chicago.
Chicago connected folks, I should say.
I'm not there, of course, but connected via the Cubs.
Beautiful weather.
Market's ripping.
I have nothing to complain about.
I should be wearing my Cubs hat. I opted for the green Bulls hat to reflect the green on our screens here this morning.
But both hats would have been an acceptable choice here today.
Logan, I didn't have a chance to watch it.
It sounds like you did watch it.
How was the Cubs' first game?
Yeah, flawless execution, all facets of the game.
So excellent, excellent managing, defense, a couple homers.
It was really great.
So basically exactly what playoff baseball is like you know you
need a couple long balls to to push you over the edge not a lot of offense a lot of stress and
anxiety with literally every single pitch that's why playoff baseball is so great so don't want to
get too cocky but 75 play market has it at 75 cubs to win the series now yep tough to probably
difficult to lose two games at home hopefully maybe that's
the optimist in me the cups fan in me so hopefully we uh we sneak just get today out of the way and
can uh book our trips to milwaukee maybe i'm gonna say a little birdie told me that if the
cubs win this round you might be making a trip to the midwest and uh is there truth to that rumor
yeah uh i would love to.
I've not been to a Cubs playoff game.
I mean, they haven't won a playoff game in eight years.
Yesterday was the first win in eight years.
For such a story,
a great franchise with a great payroll,
that's a little crazy to think about.
So I'd love to get to round two at the NLDS
should they find themselves there.
Yes.
It's exciting.
I was looking at the schedule.
I wasn't able to pull it up shortly here.
Opening weekend will be in Milwaukee
and then I think some midweek games in Chicago.
So we'll have some opportunities to choose from,
but that'll be exciting.
For folks who don't know,
Milwaukee, 90-minute drive from Chicago.
I'm a bit north of the city.
It's actually like an hour trip from me.
So it's actually very easy to get to Milwaukee. So I might make it up there if the Cubs do indeed
make it. Folks, we're talking about more than just the Cubs and playoff baseball here today.
What are we talking about? We'll start with the market report. The government is shutting
down. It is shut down. Coins love it. Coins ripping as the government actively shuts down gold is up quite a bit as
well etf inflows are high we've got this new etf the one trillion club has piqued my interest and
i'm going to share that interest with you here this morning we've got some rumors of some etf
approvals coming next week punk strategy and the nft strategy tokens are going parabolic
right now huge night for them.
We've got some new memes running as well.
LaunchCoin is teasing season two.
Robinhood going deeper into prediction markets,
plus a lot more.
So with that, let's just get into it.
Bruce and Charlie,
and we can get into some intro music.
What's really NFT and crypto analysis?
Tolerate on FOMO, our cause to kick it.
Free to bash the bears.
Yeah, folks, I'll kick us off with a quick market report, but oh my.
Green, green is the story of the morning for crypto majors.
Let's take a look at this.
Bitcoin up 3.5%, 117, 150.
ETH up 4%, 43, 14.
So briefly outperforming Bitcoin.
SOL up 6%.
Basically at 220.
This is interesting because I saw some folks kind of touting Bitcoin dominance yesterday.
And then perhaps calls for altcoins to stall.
I mean, I don't know.
ETH and SOL definitely up more here on the day than Bitcoin.
And it looks like all three are basically up the same on the week now.
So it's not just a Bitcoin rally.
All the majors are moving along with it.
Notably, it's coming as stocks are down today.
So this is a crypto outperformance, which feels rare.
We have not had one of these in what feels like months uh stocks down crypto is up on sorry i'm picking up some background trying to figure
where that's from maybe it's me sorry folks let me try it it my ESPN tab. So this is why I don't pull up MLB schedules
live during the show. So back to the government shutdown. That did officially go through,
I think, at midnight. Stocks don't like it. Crypto does love it. Gold loves it. Gold hit
3920 in another new all-time high. This thing is just up only.
And maybe it's finally going to drag Bitcoin along with it.
Notably on gold.
I think, Logie, we were talking about this before the show.
I posted about this yesterday.
There's a new on-chain gold product.
I'm not sure if you saw this one.
I'll try to pull it up.
Yeah.
I'm curious if you saw that.
Yeah, only from your post, Tyler. We were talking the other day, I think on Monday's show, about my lack of knowledge about how exactly I would go about
even getting gold exposure. So it was a serendipitous headline there. But basically, much
like the ETFs operate, right, where you have the redeemable underlying asset that's backing everything, you can buy on-chain or you can buy from Oro in this instance as well and have that fully redeemable physical gold should you wish to do so. So for someone like myself who wants,
I think I want gold exposure, right?
Like in some way, I keep thinking to myself,
and I've been saying it for weeks,
I've been very lazy about actually making any sort of moves,
but I've been looking for a way to gain exposure.
This seems like one of those easiest potential paths for a crypto native that has access
to making moves on
solana really easily so kind of interesting you can buy gold directly on solana and you can even
so i didn't look deep enough to understand exactly where there's also a yield component here
there is like three to four percent apy I didn't look deep enough to understand exactly how that is operating, but nonetheless.
But all that stuff is quite interesting to me. Of course, do your own research here.
I've not gone super deep on any of the technical aspects or the security or whatever, but interesting opportunity to gain exposure to gold.
Yeah, so you can just swap the token on Jupiter.
So anyone can do that.
If you actually want to convert your tokens for physical gold,
you will have to go through their site and KYC.
So that is an important disclosure on all this.
And then if you want access to the yield,
I think that's also on their site.
I think that might also require KYC.
I haven't looked into it myself.
But yeah, that's the story.
Every time I talk to Peter Jennings on Underexposed, he gets me more bulled up on gold.
He loves gold.
And it's hard to argue with the price performance.
Because once again, where are we at year-to-date?
46% year-to-date on gold.
Let's see, Bitcoin year-to-date is is 25%. So still has that 20% buffer. We'll get into this
here. I continue to think about this myriad market. Let me find my trusty myriad tab here.
There is this market that's gold versus Bitcoin, which will outperform in 2025.
You can get four to one on Bitcoin here, effectively.
Close to four to one, not quite.
If Bitcoin does outperform gold.
So you need a 20% move against gold.
So I continue to keep my eyes on this one.
I think we talked about it a couple of days ago.
But I want to spend more time on majors.
We haven't really been doing that a ton this week.
We've had so much to go through. I have Bitcoin at more time on majors. We haven't really been doing that a ton this week. This is because we've had so much to go through.
I have Bitcoin at one 17 to feels good.
feels great.
This is crazy,
dude.
what was it?
Like Monday morning,
like,
like one 10 or something like that.
We'd started talking about being cautiously.
Yeah.
Being cautiously optimistic.
When I had mentioned my cautious optimism,
I wasn't anticipating quite this swift of a move upwards.
But I am certainly not complaining.
It just shows how last week's end-of-week dump
was such an obvious scam dump in hindsight.
And just another CTA, everyone who's new and is actively
trading perps to rack up farming points for Hyperliquid or Aster or Lighter or whatever it is,
be careful with the leverage out there because there's no real reason that Bitcoin was at 117k
12 days ago and went all the way to 10.5 and now it's back to 117.
So I mean it's effectively going sideways but in that sideways chop
people are getting liquidated.
Billions in liquidations have happened
in the past couple weeks.
Myself included.
Myself included as well. It's very real.
I mean how are you
feeling about October
now?
Are we feeling a little more confident?
I think I called for all-time highs in October on yesterday's show.
You did.
Yeah, I think you said 130 on the record for 130.
I'm still there.
I still feel up the rest of the year.
I said yesterday I wasn't ready to make those $250,000 calls.
But, yeah, I fully expect the new all-time high, perhaps sooner rather than later.
So nothing has changed about my feelings.
I'm still feeling pretty optimistic about things in the very near future.
And that extends beyond Bitcoin as well.
You know, it's sort of interesting about this, Tyler, you point up the ETF stuff.
interesting about this, Tyler, you point up the ETF stuff, but, um, you know, a bulk of the
strength, um, you know, perhaps in the most recent run up to the new all time high was
combination DATS plus ETFs, you know, just general fervor about the market.
DATS aren't buying right now, you know, and stuff like sailor like, his least amount, like, not ever, but I don't know, in, like, a long time recently.
That's, nobody's buying, Bitcoin in particular, Ethereum, just Tom Lee, you know, those treasuries, aside from Tom Lee, are basically doing nothing.
And yet, we're still moving upwards.
I mean, I think if you're if you're sitting
here and you're sort of calculating that type of stuff you kind of be feeling pretty good because
those are huge you know drivers uh for price action and for accumulation so feeling pretty
good we we love the moves without sailor driving the bus right and it's clearly not sailor right
now yeah they just feel they feel better also too because
it feels like you know not to suggest that i don't think sailor strategy is like scammy whatever but
all the dat stuff like it is a little cringy from time to time right yeah you know when everything
is so isolated and focused on dats buying it's, oh man, wait till this unwinds, that type of stuff.
Right now, whether it is or it isn't,
it feels a little bit more organic and authentic
and healthy, maybe that's a good word to describe it.
And I'm totally bored with that.
And more and more folks talking about Vanguard
getting into crypto and Bitcoin access, right?
We talked about it a couple of days ago.
Eleanor Tourette broke the news.
Bloomberg lagged, but now CoinDesk on
and blasting out Bloomberg crypto.
They're talking about it.
So now it's reaching a much wider audience.
CD had it first.
But now more and more folks are seeing this.
And I'm putting myself in the average fund manager's shoes.
You see this coming.
It's not a hard front run, right right like if you've been on the fence about getting into um the bitcoin trade
and you see that this vanguard capital is very likely to come i mean what else are you waiting
for yeah i i'm not sure if i shared this anecdote with you, Tyler. My parents were recently, they went to like their financial advisor, like meetup party thing. And I had asked them to ask the advisor about Bitcoin and stuff. Just totally not on their radar at all. Like they're not even thinking about it. becoming more apparent as a potential portfolio allocation for some advisors or asset managers.
But at least here in rural PA, it doesn't appear as if Bitcoin is on the near-term roadmap, I should say.
It's the same here in downtown Chicago, one of the largest metropolitans in the United States
and somewhat of the financial capital. Now, of course, the size to like New York or London,
but a lot of finance folks, quants here in Chicago, and yet crypto has been a persona
non grata. And now I feel like my anecdotal take is these fund managers, they miss the trade
and they would hate to get in now and then take
a big haircut. So I think they're just extra fearful and cautious to even start getting in,
but they will capitulate at the price they deserve. Quick shout out. Is it the ref, AI ref,
gifted some subs here today? Thank you. Thank you, AI, 50 subs, incredible stuff.
We are streaming live
in kick folks, by the way, uh, where you can have live access to the chat and a whole lot more.
Um, let's talk to ETH, ETH at 4,300. We had folks like, I think Ansel was calling for 2,500
before 4k again, or some outrageous target. Uh, he has been in his bearish tirades throughout this month,
which are looking worse by the day.
I think with the DAT unwind and caution around the DAT,
that trade largely driven by the headline that came out of the SEC last week,
they're, they're investigating 200 DATs for insider trading.
I think a lot of folks thought that might hit ETH the hardest.
That was my read, at least, because this ETH route,
I did feel like it was the most debt-driven, perhaps, of them all,
and rightfully so.
The debt's largely out of ammo, besides Big Tom.
But here we are, and ETH is down 2% on the month.
It's up nicely off of its local bottom,
probably 15% off the local bottom here.
And still looks pretty good on the one year.
How are you thinking about ETH?
Maybe compared to Bitcoin,
which would you say you are more confident in or has a stronger outlook for Q4?
I think I'm still more confident in Bitcoin. It just feels like that's where the bulk of the strength is right now. You have the outrageous gold stuff, right? And Bitcoin, of course, draws that immediate comparison.
draws that immediate comparison. But that's not to say that I don't feel that same cautious
optimism for Ethereum. We were just talking earlier this week about all of these other
adjacent headlines and further entrenchment. I keep saying the word entrenchment. I said it
probably a hundred times on the show. It's like my favorite word right now. But I think it's a
great way to characterize exactly what's happening. And Ethereum is, I shouldn't say leading,
but it's right there alongside Bitcoin in terms of finding itself in greater mainstream adoption.
I mean, it's right there. And I think price follows that at some point in time. So I feel confident here. I think personally, and again, I'm not like a macro trader or TA guy or anything
like that. So of course, not financial advice. Personally, I'm not like a macro trader or TA guy or anything like that.
So, you know, of course, not financial advice.
Personally, I feel Bitcoin is a little bit stronger.
You know, yeah, maybe that's cliche, silly, whatever.
But I'm not shying away from Ethereum in any way, shape or form.
I miss this.
Look at this candle at 4.30 a.m. Eastern today.
Wow.
4,150 to 4,300 in one candle.
Did Bitcoin have that same?
I haven't zoomed in.
I mean, this is nuts.
1,14 to 1,16.
They all candled up kind of roughly at the same time.
I feel like I feel the same.
It's just easier to have more confidence in Bitcoin, I think.
What would surprise you more?
40% move in both assets.
40% for ETH is 6K.
40% Bitcoin is 160K.
What would surprise you more to hit end of year?
I think probably the Ethereum move would surprise me a little bit more.
I think probably the Ethereum move would surprise me a little bit more.
You know, some psychology with needing to break beyond what it has never broken beyond.
And like I said, I still think the Bitcoin gold comparison, I think that that narrative is being driven really strongly.
And I think it's super easy
to buy into. And that's
the type of stuff that wouldn't shock me at all
to see just outrageous
rallies in this
asset, especially as gold continues
to go up.
So I think the ETH move
would surprise me a little bit more, but I'm fully
expecting it at some point.
Maybe not Q4, but I'm fully expecting it at some point. You know, maybe not Q4,
but I do fully expect that 6,000 Ethereum,
shit, 10,000 Ethereum,
like those numbers do make sense at some point.
But how long that may be, you know, who knows?
It's got to hit 5,000 first.
And it can't do that.
It hasn't done that yet.
I know there's all those myriad markets too about both the,
I believe an all-time high market as well as a 3,500 to 5,000 market,
which I'm sure has swung completely the other way.
When I wrote, I write that weekly myriad moves piece.
Yeah, this is one of the most volatile markets on the board.
But I write this piece every Thursday.
You take a look at the markets that are moving most.
This was all of these sort of next hit markets had flipped bearish,
literally like four days ago, five days ago.
And of course, I'm assuming, yeah, most of all flipped back bullish.
Yeah, I'm trying to read through this here.
So what do we got?
So 5K hitting first is now at 66 percent it looks like it dropped
yeah i mean it was very oh yeah it was 36 percent yeah so this is totally flipped um nice market
5k volume so i like the 5k side on this we we survived like that was the bears last stand what
was last week we got to to what? 3,800,
maybe a touch over.
I forget exactly where,
how long 3850 or something.
So you were sweating it a little bit right there.
Cause then it was just a 10% move,
but now back at 4,300.
I like the,
I like the upset in the 5k.
I think stepping back,
I did appreciate when we had Udi on the show a while back,
he kind of said difference.
One key difference between Bitcoin and ETH was that Bitcoin has been kind of
chopped, has been grinding through
the whale churn.
And the OG ancient Bitcoin
whales have been clearly dumping
into the $120K
range. And his view is that eventually they will
run out. And that's
when we'll see real price discovery
on Bitcoin.
We pray that he's right if you're the big Bitcoin bulls out there, right?
But it does that anecdotally without having any data in front of me that makes sense.
And we have seen the data that clearly older whale holders have been selling.
That data is clear.
I don't have it in front of me.
And I do think there are more ancient ETH whales, ICO whales still to turn through comparatively
than Bitcoin has.
So I think Bitcoin has the plus one when you think about it that way.
But there is something big still on the horizon that still I don't think CT is talking about
just enough for ETH.
And that is the ETH staking ETFs.
That really feels like it could be a big one.
Like when you talk about the fund managers getting involved and what's going to get them off their ass and actually into the trade.
If you have ETH speculation plus guaranteed yield in ETF form, that's attractive.
Yeah.
And it's BlackRock, right?
It's not ETF shop down the street, Joe's ETFs down the street.
It's actually black
rock um we've seen their flows i think they had higher flows than bitcoin for the uh in the month
of august i had to go back and check my numbers um so inflows will come probably tick up i don't
think it's a huge stretch to think the inflows will tick up with this product. Yeah, I think
the productivity thing surrounding
Ethereum is
probably not really talked
about enough for us.
For example, yesterday,
we mentioned ads are not buying right now
aside from Tom Lee, but Sharplink reported
like 430 ETH
or something in staking revenues.
That number will continue to rise as they add Ethereum.
That's something that is, I don't know,
is probably discounted quite heavily by us right now,
just because, I don't know,
you're not really ever thinking or talking about Ethereum staking
and exactly what it's providing back to those who are doing it. So when you think about true fundamental traditional equities,
traders who are thinking about revenues, profits,
all that stuff that crypto has so conveniently shut its eyes towards,
that stuff is probably very, very attractive.
So yeah, I'm with you.
So SBET, Sharpling Gaming has made $18 million
in ETH staking yield since their inception.
So they've been around for four months.
Cheap of rewards up to $4,272.
I just did the quick math.
So that's about $18 million.
That's a pretty good business.
Not a hard stretch to think they'll make a hundred million
in their first year. What is SBET market cap at? Let's take a look.
Oh, nicely. They have 6%. How about that? The quick, the DAT bears, those who called for the
death of all DATs, once again, have greatly exaggerated. Market cap's at $3.4 billion.
They're going to make $100 million in staking yield this year
on top of their assets.
I actually haven't checked in on the assets.
Strategic Heath Reserve.
Let's take a look at where these things are.
So Bitmine has $11.4 billion.
Sharplink has $3.6.
Oh, man, I haven't even checked in the MNAV of these. So it's oh man how do you check to the mnav
so it's turning under it's turning at sub one mnav right now it has been that's why they've
been rebuying shares um so just joe challenge has been you know talking about that they'll
continue to buy shares i think they had re-upped their um share repurchase program i had written
about it i'm gonna mess up the exact numbers but they had re-bought repurchase program. I had written about it. I'm going to mess up the exact numbers, but they had re-bought, repurchased,
I believe around 30,
last time I had written about it,
maybe around 30 million in SBET shares.
I think at an average around like sub $16
or something like that.
So yeah, doing pretty well here,
but man, it's crazy that nobody else, nobody else is buying now. There was so much momentum, you know, for pretty well here. But man, it's crazy that nobody else is buying now.
There was so much momentum for all of these.
We know where they might be buying soon.
It is kind of quieted down at Solana.
So we had the first sold that way.
We know there's a few more coming.
I think there's at least another $2 billion in sold debt,
buying pressure coming, and soul outperforming Bitcoin and ether.
It's up 6% knocking on two 20.
They all moved up right at the same time.
So it was quite literally this four 20 AM was when all these moves.
So soul moved from two 10 to two 18 in that move.
And it's just been grinding up here all morning.
so clearly quite clearly something is happening.
We're seeing some consistent buy pressure from the overnight
and through the morning.
Sol at 220.
All-time highs, 285.
Depends on what you're using.
I think Quank Echo has like 293.
Okay, either way.
So we'll call it 293.
I think we hit new all-time highs in this Q4.
Hmm.
I think we certainly could.
You have, as you mentioned, the DAT stuff, ETF stuff,
probably coming very soon.
If there was a period in time for it,
it does feel like Q4 is as ripe an opportunity
as there has been.
It has been the forgotten network.
It really has because of price action,
narratives following price action, right?
And sole price action has been choppy and rangy.
So no one's talking about the perp stacks is the
app success pump again having
an incredible run still
making a million dollars a day.
But yeah, I saw this article from
Blockworks. They are saying that behind the scenes
DDF issuers are preparing
for green lights for the
sole ETFs within days.
Yeah.
I think Bal Kunis tweeted that it could be any day now yesterday. sole ETFs within days. Yeah. Not months.
I think Bal Kunis tweeted that it could be any day now, yesterday, which we expected,
right?
Like Eric, ETF analyst at Bloomberg has been tweeting about the fact that these are like 99%.
I think he actually moved the needle to 100% yesterday tweeting.
So fully expecting all of these to be approved, but how much of that is
actually priced in? I don't know. It feels like it has, it's not, at least anecdotally speaking,
from my perspective, it doesn't feel like this type of stuff has been priced in. I know I brought
it up the other day, but Bitwise CIO, the chief investment officer there, is talking about this
plus the culmination of the DATS,
really setting Solana up for that epic year-end run.
If it's going to happen, I think this Q4 is as strong a period as ever for it.
Yeah, I think a part of it in the ETFs haven't caught quite as much fervor because they don't have BlackRock behind them.
We have this Rex Osprey ETF on the market, not seeing huge volume.
We will see an uptick when these other ETFs come out.
Probably not at the same scale as BlackRock, given they've got, what, two of the top five ETFs in the world with Bitcoin and ETH.
the top five ETFs in the world with Bitcoin and ETH.
But Sol will also benefit from the staking ETFs as well,
along with the diversification narrative.
So I think that the bull case is definitely there for Sol Q4.
And I lean more towards, I think, all-time high in Q4 is favored.
I think it's greater than 50%, I guess, would be my read on that.
So I do think it's coming.
We'll move off of majors and go down the risk curve,
but I quickly have to talk about this other headline from yesterday.
I'll see if I can find it.
Maybe I don't have the story up.
But this trillionaires club, I don't know if you saw this one, Mogie. Yeah. Well, I read the morning minute, so of course I saw it. Maybe I don't have the story up, but this trillionaires club, I don't know if you saw this
one, Mogie. Yeah. Well, I read the morning minute. So of course I saw it. God bless you for reading
that every day. And yeah, I wrote about this in the newsletter here this morning, folks. I'm
going to try to pull up the link for us, but we have a new ETF coming to market. And it is a very interesting one. It is the 1 trillion club ETF. And I've got
it here for us. So the idea behind this one, it is launched by Defiance. And it is a combination
of Bitcoin plus Mag7 plus a couple other companies companies so basically every company that is valued at one
trillion market cap or higher is in this etf it's called the the one trillion club trill is the etf
ticker great ticker for this one of course it's out of miami um it just tracks so well uh with
that locale but here we have what it's made up of.
NVIDIA, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta from the MAG7.
It also has Broadcom and Berkshire Hathaway in this, along with IBIT.
So it's not spot Bitcoin, but it's effectively spot Bitcoin via BlackRock's IBIT.
So those are the 10 assets in this portfolio.
As I understand
it, they are evenly balanced. So inflows into this ETF will spread across all 10 of these.
This was very interesting to me specifically. I think the obvious first degree takeaway,
more inflows for Bitcoin, that's great. It also is some signal that Bitcoin belongs in the same
stage as these other assets. I think that's some obvious takeaways.
But kind of putting my personal investment hat on,
we've talked about this a little bit on Ununderexposed,
not telling this show.
I've been thinking about portfolio management on a longer time horizon and into the roaring 20s.
And I do have the foundational mindset that I think assets will grind up
through this decade.
And there will be dips along the way, but I don't think we see 50% or 75% corrections. I think we
see more like 15% to 30% corrections on a longer grind up, primarily because of currency debasement
and the AI boom. I think we'll be driving a lot of this as well. So I wanted to figure out how to best allocate
capital along with that thesis. Previously, I was more heavily allocated to S&P 500 indexes
and crypto. And I've been thinking more and more about the S&P 500 index. And was it not
risk on enough for me? I kind of come to conclusion that I wanted more power law returns
with MAG7 plus crypto
largely allocated to Bitcoin.
So that's how I've been thinking about it.
I've been starting to make some moves
to be more Bitcoin plus MAG7,
but I didn't really have the product.
Now we have one.
And I don't know if I'm exactly going to go
chase after Defiance ETF's actual product
or just kind of build my own version of this.
It's very doable, right, on your own, and you can avoid some fees.
But I really like this conceptually as betting on what you think will be the biggest winners.
Instead of making a broad bet across 500, making a bet across 10.
It's not betting on one because betting on one is a single point of failure.
And that certainly is riskier.
And of course, betting on 10 is riskier than betting on 500.
But the returns are better too.
So I took just a quick look at this here this morning as I was writing up the morning minute.
So MAG 7 up 20% on the year versus 14% for the S&P.
So all right, not a huge outperformance, 30% outperformance.
But off that April bottom, it's up 60% versus S&P up 30%.
So greatly outperforming since April.
So this product piques my interest
and kind of got the wheels spinning for me.
I'm curious if you have any reactions to this.
Yeah, I'm right there with you.
I've expressed to you before that my difficulty in just doubling down on winners, right?
The whole winners win thing.
And if you take a look at it, you just sort of noted with this year's returns.
But I think even on a longer time frame, the returns from those other big indexes that people all invest in come from these companies,
right? Like the bulk of the returns are coming from the best companies. So why not cut out the
shit and just invest in the best companies? So I'm right there with you. I like something like this.
Again, I don't know enough about the specific product to suggest that I would look to invest in this one in particular.
But just not feeling too bad about their current valuations and knowing that these are the ones that are going to grow.
That's the hardest part for me is the whole, oh, it's already so expensive thing.
And then the expensive ones just keep going up
because they're the ones that are the best companies.
And what else are you going to do with your money?
I think that's the other aspect.
Are you going to hold it in cash?
I'm past that mindset.
So now I've got on a five-year time horizon, larger sample size.
S&P 500 is up 100% on five years.
Mag 7 is up substantially more.
I guess this is not even five.
I guess this is two and a half years.
It's up
300%.
Now, granted,
perhaps it's because this index just started tracking
three years ago.
Let's try to see from the same time,
apples to apples.
So it's up even more.
So the S&P is up less than 100 100 so we're talking about three to four x returns
right i mean that is that's a big difference it really is yeah
man i don't know what else to say i mean i i take a look at some of these from time to time and i'm
like how could it keep going up? But as you just may know,
I mean,
what else are you going to do with your money?
Like what else are people going to do with it?
You just going to let it sit there and become less powerful.
Like there's no other play.
It's like the,
the ultimate Ponzi,
but what else do you do?
Bad decade for bears.
Let's move further down the risk curve.
We got to talk punk strategy and some of these NFTft strategy tokens because what what a run they are on it looks like
punk strategy has pulled back a bit here but it has just been going absolutely up and to the right
it is i was about 30 35 on the. It's 116 million dollar market cap,
perhaps a little bit less with the burn and whatnot,
but the token's at 11.5 cents.
So just for easier numbers, we'll call it 115 million.
It is soaring.
It looks like it's going to get its, yeah,
10% away from buying its 19th punk.
It'll move into the top 50 here today.
I hope it gets this one selfishly. As a holder, i do hold some punk strategy tokens that's a cool gold chain uh
the collection is moving beyond floors like that is clear we talked about this before we don't need
to go into it again um the collection is definitely getting better but i think what jumps out to me
even more is wow look at the green across the other strategy tokens that were much less
of a sure bet even a week ago. And I'll admit I was not tracking these as closely when I was
out on vacation last week. And that has cost me quite a bit. So Burb strategy up 60%,
8 million. It hit 10 million briefly this morning. Pudgy strategy up 45% on the day at 7.4.
million briefly this morning. Pudgy strategy up 45% on the day at 7.4. Dick strategy, dick butts
up 100%, 5.5 million. Squiggles up 36%. Toad strategy even up 70% at 2.8 million.
And why this pains me is because the top five, right, Burr, Pudgy, Ape, Dick strategy,
Meebitt strategy were all available. They all launched at the same time.
You could have bought into any of these below $1 million
in pretty decent size.
Maybe not like six figures,
but you easily could have thrown an Aether 2 into any of these five
below $1 million, and you'd be up 8x on Burbstrat.
You'd be up 7x on Pudgy. You'd be up 6x on Apestrat. You'd be up 5x on burpstrat you'd be up 7x on pudger you'd be up 6x on apestrat you'd be up
5x on dixtrat 4x on meves these were just obvious trades and i feel like i just totally whiffed on
which is what's frustrating i am in punk strategy and i was thinking this morning, man, is it time to just capitulate into some of these? It is tough after these green candles, but I don't, I don't think today's the top for
these tokens.
I don't know why today specifically would be.
So I don't think you beat yourself up too much just because I don't think this was as
much of a slam dunk.
And I'm not even considering like, of course there was some execution risk, right?
There was some contract stuff at the very early stages, right?
In particular, like the squiggle one.
This whole thing is brand new, right?
We didn't know exactly what was going to happen here.
And I think it's really easy.
I've talked earlier this week about how impactful i think the community collective
like rooting thing is here it's really easy to understand why people would be rooting for
crypto punks and how they could rally around the best asset but were they going to rally around
me bits you know or were they you know that i think that was a little less clear um it's not
clear to me that all of these are going to go up
and to the right forever.
But what I think they're doing is they're making it easier
for folks who want to root or join a community
to join the community and just have a more liquid in and out.
Which is, I guess, what maybe fract nfts tried to provide right there's
been like there's been things or even the fungible tokens associated with these projects
right pengu um you know it's sort of like giving people a way to exposure to this brand
but get in and out much easier this is doing the same thing but like the i don't know there just feels like there's
more cohesion on the ultimate goal like it's something for the community to rally around
because it benefits everyone right so yeah if the token goes up they have more capital to buy moonbirds if the moonbirds floor goes up then you can root
for the the 1.2x moonbirds to sell which drives back to the token um which drives more fees to
buy more moonbirds right and it is a little bit of floor plunge protection as well and token sells
off you win for that as well so you can even root on the volatility.
And it's one token.
It was a fair launch.
Anyone and everyone had equal chance to get into it,
basically at whatever price you wanted.
So it's hard to throw FUD at it, really.
Like, what are the FUD angles?
And they've had some contract issues.
They've had some exploits.
I think Adam Renaka has been pretty upfront about those. They're addressing those.
I do think
even if you feel like you perhaps
have missed the trades on these and you
don't want to chase that $8-10 million, I understand
that.
Every single new launch, I think
is going to be heavily watched
now. There's going to be and there should
be more.
You can be selective.
Like I said, I don't think every single one of these
is going to
earn the collective or
the community that is necessary
to push this up
beyond perhaps the initial surge or excitement
about new token.
Some NFT projects in those
communities and the brands are
just not strong enough to send them up in my opinion. But there are going to be a handful
of others that are not currently listed there that do not currently have a strategy that definitely
warrant one and likely will see the token price go up. One of the things I was thinking about this
morning, Tyler, because I heard you say when you were
welcoming people into the show, I think I heard you mention
Unipups or something like that.
So actually, I went to Magic Eden,
checked the pups price, and I was thinking
to myself, how long until we see
a NodeMonkeys or a Bitcoin
Puppets strategy? Like, that's
coming, right? We already have...
It might not come from
NFT strategies, strategies, this official
thing, but it's coming
at some point in time.
And it should come. Why not?
Nodes are up 40% on the week
because I believe there's
chatter out of a strategy.
What I don't know is if it's an official one
or an unofficial. I think
Renotic has his hands full getting the
ETH-based ones done correctly, so I would not
expect
an official one from the team to come
anytime soon. But
I could absolutely see it happening
at some point. And then we've
seen what Jing Tao is
behind a hyper strategy that's
been buying the hypers.
The token's been doing pretty well.
Let me see if I can i see the chat here
saying there's uh there's stuff coming for node monkeys as well that doesn't surprise me at all
i think it'll come for every single one uh right correct me if i'm wrong but nft strategies
has one coming for x copy stuff already is that right that is yeah that is in the works it'll be
max pain specific got it got it but i fully expect you'll see it for other art related stuff as well.
Even beyond collection stuff, right?
Like the super easy collections like Max Payne or Grifters or whatever.
I think you could see it for other stuff too.
Wow. Hyper strategy now Now it's up 230%.
So this is actually,
this is an unofficial.
So this is not tied to the token works team or NFT strategies.
It is a one-off.
And there's been some trepidation around these because there's less trust
perhaps in the team,
but I think this one is trusted and wow,
huge move.
I feel like I saw maybe Spencer tweet about the Meepster thing.
Or not Meepster, the Burbster stuff.
And I think Sergito has been advocating in some way,
not with financial advice, but welcoming the Meepster stuff as well.
Just curious if any of these other bigger, perhaps bigger brands
have
leaned in. Because this feels
like such a slam dunk
to just re-energize folks about
NFTs and brands that
have struggled to
gain attention recently.
Yeah. I think it's
been lacking from Pudgy Eko unless I just
missed it, which actually kind of surprised me.
I do think any kind of an endorsement
would probably send this thing up 2-3x.
But with that said, they had the Pingu token,
so perhaps they don't want to...
I get it.
It is messy for the collections that do have tokens, right?
And perhaps that's why we haven't seen them be as loud.
So ApeCoin, Pingu are out there.
We think Spencer's going to launch his own coin.
Clearly he's thought about it. He took
some time to think about it and decided to lean
in. So he's figured out
his path forward.
I don't know that Sergito has any plans
for Amoebis coin anytime soon. So I think
it was a little bit easier for him to perhaps
lean in more
directly. And he made a calculated bet
and I think it's done well right i mean based on
a floor point a floor price ratio the amoeba's token is clearly outperforming i've heard chatter
that that flamingo dial is is leaning into squiggle strategy so that's not it's not like um
you know our blocks team but some of the biggest players are starting to lean in so we are seeing
the buy-in yeah at this point for me um the ones that i would want i have no exposure to any of these silly even though
i've been kind of following and talking about them with you for the last week or so um the
where i'm at right now is i would look to these to gain exposure to the collections where i like
don't actually just want to hold the NFT.
You know,
so for,
you know,
I love doodles,
right?
Like you,
you know that I've former doodles told her,
but have no exposure to them.
If there was a doodle strategy token, I would much rather own that than I would rather own a doodles NFT or the dude
token.
Well,
I'm just saying this.
So cryptodes are higher than doodles.
Dick butts are twox doodles.
Wow.
Ladies are 1.5x doodles.
Little Pudgies are higher than doodles.
Is doodles even going to qualify to get a strategy?
Does anyone want it?
I don't know.
Raise your hand if you want to do it.
I guess Logan just did.
Logan wants a doodle strategy token.
He might be the only one.
I would purchase a doodle strategy token before I bought a doodle
or before I bought the dude token.
That's where I'm at.
But there are other ones, other collections that, again,
I don't feel particularly like I want to go buy the nft
like azuki for example is down there like oh yeah i would rather own azuki strategy than i would an
azuki nft and i like that as a i still like that brand um but i don't want to own the illiquid nft
i don't want to i don't want to own that i don't want to own the ohiquid NFT. I don't want to own that.
I don't want to own the...
Oh my God.
Is it the Zuki?
I can't even remember.
Oh no, I guess it's anime coin, right?
I don't want to own anime coin.
I'd rather just own a Zuki strategy or whatever.
If a Zuki strategy comes out, I'm buying it.
Yeah, that's where I'm at.
So for me, I'm not focused so much on...
It's not that I don't want to gain exposure to the other ones
because I think Punkster can go a whole lot higher.
And again, I'm just foolishly kind of sitting on my hands
while I talk about this to folks for a third or fourth day in a row.
But I totally love...
This provides all the same elements of wanting to root for this collection,
wanting to root for stuff to go up.
It's got all the markers of all the reasons that people got excited about NFTs
and meme coin communities in the first place.
So I'm all for it.
Maybe eventually I'll make some splash.
If we get a dude strategy, I think I would be interested.
A Zuki strategy, I think I would be interested. A Zuki strategy, I think I would be interested.
There's probably one or two others that don't exist now
that I could be talking to.
I'm sure there's a problem.
Here's an oddball one.
D-God strategy.
Now we're talking.
I always wanted some sort of exposure.
Not to be in the community, but I wanted some sort of exposure, not to be in the community,
but I wanted some exposure
because I always felt like
it had such a fantastic synergy,
what Frank and the community had done.
Such a fantastic synergy
with a young male and a bar stool-ish.
That's what I'd always compare it to.
And it just never really...
It's not to say...
They had their time in the sun, for sure.
D-God's floor will double with the d god strategy token you guys strategy i'm i'm yeah but i would put my
money behind d god strategy let's move on we have a few minutes left in the the show here a couple
memes popped off yesterday and i think they kind of came out of left field. I think you had a chance to look into them.
So I'm going to quickly just pull up the Salon
of Meme board here.
Oh, shit, we haven't even talked about Pump.
Quickly, I tweeted about this this morning.
We showed it on yesterday's show.
Meme coins are back.
Token deployments are up after yesterday's,
last week's huge decrease.
Revenue's up.
Pump is back to making a million dollars a day
in revenue. Not a huge surprise. huge decrease revenues up pump is back to making a million dollars a day in
revenue.
not a huge surprise.
Daily,
daily active addresses are up.
Yeah.
So they're making,
but made up $1.3 million yesterday.
That pump token,
the second biggest mover in crypto up 18% back to 6.7 billion.
it looks like the dip is in local bottom is in.
I think this thing runs to new all time highs here is my read.
I don't know how quickly I'm not saying it's going to happen today,
but I do think it is on that trajectory.
And there's been some actions.
A lot of coin was up 30%.
They teased a season two.
I'm not sure that I'm ready to fully buy back into that,
but then there was this virus and this weed coin
that kind of came out of nowhere so i'm curious if you had a chance to look into those if you
know the story logan yeah just a little bit uh i couldn't get through uh to the actual game
these are courtesy of addicted.fun um which is uh a what i believe to be a weed farming simulation game. That's what I could gather.
It is invite code only, but it's from, yeah,
Pandemic Labs is sort of the game studio behind Addicted.fun,
which is where that weed, again,
what I believe to be a weed simulation game is coming from.
I can't get through to play,
so I can't really share too much else about it uh at
this point in time but i think they have like 260 000 like pre-access signups and stuff you have
the solana you know account chirping it all the big solana brand accounts uh participating in the
replies and stuff so this has a stamp of uh I'm not sure if approval is the right word,
but a stamp of legitimacy
from the big players in Solana
engaging alongside.
And whenever you can gamble on a token
from a new thing,
it typically generates some level of excitement.
I wish I could say more.
One thing we know about basement-dwelling zoomers,
they love weed. So a token that they say more. One thing we know about basement-dwelling Zoomers, they love weed.
So a token that they can speculate on,
something they love that much,
it's going to do well.
Clearly it has.
It is wild.
I've seen some chatter.
I think Deez, Andy, they may be in on this.
I haven't really talked about with them too much.
It sounds like Virus is the token tied to the actual protocol.
And it's trading at like 17 million
and yet the weed token,
which is one of like the project tokens,
is higher than it by like two and a half X.
So I think they're a little puzzled
about why the protocol token isn't higher.
I don't have a personal viewpoint on it.
I haven't dug into this ecosystem.
But when I see a token up 2,400% on decent volume and with 10,000 plus holders in this meme market, I do pay attention.
So clearly there's some love on weed and the addicted.fond ecosystem right now.
So we'll continue to look into that.
We talked about hood stock yesterday.
I guess, Logan, there's one story that we had on our list for a few days.
We haven't had a chance to get into it.
Maybe we just get into it today and check it off our list.
Some news with Circle.
Oh, yeah.
This was from our, since you were out last week,
you asked me to gather some headlines that you may have missed. One that caught my eye that we have not yet discussed. We don't need to spend too much time on it. But there was a report last week. I don't remember the initial publication, but Circle investigating or experimenting with reversible transactions, potentially.
reversible transactions potentially. So that, that came across,
I wrote a story about it. It's over at Decrypt.
If you want to learn a lot more. But one of the,
I think the key takeaways is that there,
there is some incompatibility, right. With blockchain, of course,
and the mainstream participation in retail with, you know, like if you,
if you are defrauded in crypto, you don't get that back, right?
That immutability core ethos of crypto.
And I think it's, you know, it's mentioned at least in the quote from, I think his name
is Keith Tavert, who is a president or something at Circle, in the quote to the other publication.
at circle uh in the quote to the other publication yeah um thinking through the possibility of
Yeah.
reversibility transactions just another way to kind of should i say entrench in mesh right
blockchain alongside this more traditional expected web 2 behavior uh so i know it it raised some alarm of course with these
with the true crypto believers people who are you know very much in the
you know immutability is our thing this is why we did this you can't add this but at the same time
i i sort of understand here you know i mean like i? I get it too. Find a middle ground, web 2.5, whatever.
We all know that when you operate on chain,
you take certain risks with that.
And we all know we're playing a game of finality.
But if you want to talk to a person who just was hacked or exploited,
I think that person in that spot is likely going to be in favor of
is likely going to be in favor of reversible transactions.
reversible transactions.
And of course, I see the massive downsides to this, right?
A government perhaps aligned to a party you don't agree with who has control
and can freeze transactions, reverse transactions,
and that is the ultimate nightmare.
But is there a place for it in a
broader ecosystem maybe and everyone gets to choose what ecosystems they play with
i think if it would probably i feel like it's a net negative for usdc i feel like you would see
folks turning to other stable coins certainly more of the core, folks aligned with core ethos
are going to turn to the stablecoins
that don't have that.
Yeah, so this, to be clear,
again, this is not actually a thing yet.
It's an exploration or discussion.
And I believe,
you know, this wouldn't like be
just taking place broad strokes
across Ethereum and wherever USDC is deployed.
There would be specific environments, specific circumstances, basically.
So, for example, in the ARK white paper, ARK is the network being built by Circle for stablecoin specifically.
Stablecoin activity specifically, the layer one network that
they're building. In the ARK
white paper, there's
a small note at the very end in terms of
the roadmap that developers are considering
building
module stuff that you could build on
top of ARK
to potentially do this.
It's like a layer on top of a layer
on top of a layer, a very small niche area,
which in,
in which this may be possible.
But it's the Pandora's box that once you open it,
right,
it's the slippery slope arguments get so loud.
And then that's where I struggle with this.
So I'm sure this will be a topic from,
from more discussion,
clearly in very,
very initial stages.
So, so no alarm bells should really be going off too loudly. Yeah. One, I'm sure this will be a topic for more discussion, clearly in very, very initial stages.
So no alarm bells should really be going off too loudly.
Yeah.
One other headline, Tyler, that I had on my list that I didn't prepare you for or anything,
but because we brought up the MAG7 thing,
something that was interesting from last week
was there was an ETF application for a DAT,
basically a DAT strategy ETF.
If you're looking to gain exposure to DATs,
that was another interesting one
that came across my desk last week.
If you don't want to pick one DAT,
if you can't pick just one,
you may be able to put your money
into all of the DATs simultaneously.
I can't think of an ETF
that most of CT would love to short
more than a DAT ETF. I don't have of an ETF that most of CT would love to short more than a dad ETF.
I don't have a strong opinion.
I probably wouldn't be buying it, though, if I'm being honest.
What about a NFT strategy token ETF or index?
I meant it.
Oh, yeah.
Although it's kind of punk strategy, right?
Yeah, it is sort of punk strategy. A downstream one? I would think about Oh, yeah. Although it's kind of punk strategy, right? Yeah, it is sort of punk strategy.
A downstream one.
I would think about it for sure.
I mean, it would be doing pretty well.
So I would take a look.
Folks, we're at the top of the hour.
I think we went through the list.
Fun show.
I want to thank all of our listeners for tuning in today on Kick or X.
I just want to thank my co-host Logan for stepping in here again today.
We'll be back tomorrow at 10 a.m.
Eastern until then,
go make it a beautiful day.
Goodbye. Thank you.
