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FOMO HOUR: WAR, MARKETS, AND DAILY NEWS.
Recorded: March 2, 2026 Duration: 0:53:31Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. I don't know. Tyler. Let you do it. Check, check. All right. Sorry, we're late.
It's my fault.
Let's kick it, Charlie. Thank you.ん
ん oh yo what up what up good morning good morning gm gm uh monday monday monday monday march
Monday, Monday, Monday, Monday, March.
Second, 22.6.
Another beautiful day to have it.
Today, the month actually.
First show of the month of March.
Month that is starting off in a pretty crazy way.
I've got my co-host in the house, Tyler Mando.
Good morning.
How are you guys doing today?
GM, how are you?
Good. I'm good. How are you guys doing today? GM, how are you? Good. I'm good.
How are you doing?
Yeah, chill, man. Great weekend.
Yeah, it's been quite an eventful weekend.
Definitely been eventful, right?
I felt like monitoring the situation.
It always happens on a Friday night, it feels like.
So you wake up on Saturday and it's like, right,
settling in for a two-day monitoring the situation.
Yeah.
It's nice that it's on the weekend because I'm too busy to monitor usually weekdays
or I don't really have the brainpower for that.
But this weekend, I literally had nothing else to do but to monitor.
such a situation I really deeply care about.
It's actually a situation I really deeply care about.
So it was a glorious day to put everything secondary in this monitor.
Vanessa would come up to me every few hours and be like,
so how's the monitoring going?
Any new situations?
And I'm just filling her in.
It's awesome.
I have now my co-captain for when it comes to monitoring, which is awesome.
Tyler, how are you doing?
I think I monitored the situation too hard across the way.
I think it scrambled my brain a little bit.
So I'm going to need to pull back a little bit from Rage Bait Expos
on every side of the situation.
I think I read most of them.
But, hey, market's doing all right.
Listen, for the scale of what's going on in the planet right now,
it's been doing okay.
Look, we'll talk about this in a minute,
so we don't have to jump into it right now.
Markets are on the menu today with Mando,
so I'm sure we'll be talking about, you know,
pretty much the Declaration of War, right, on Friday evening.
So we'll be talking about that,
but also with regards to what it means for our markets
because that's what this show is about.
Tyler's Top 100.
Let's see what Tyler's going to store for us in terms of news.
I'm sure there's a bunch of stuff happening over the weekend, that's for sure.
And then we'll give some money away thanks to our partners over at Yeet, yeet.com.
Make sure that you sign up using the code FOMOHOUR.
You have to use the code FOMOHOUR to have a chance to win Monday to Friday.
We pick a winner and we give you guys some money.
We give actually you guys a lot of money.
And the month of March, oh yes, this show is powered by the none other than our good friends over at Walrus.
Walrus is a verifiable data platform for builders in AI and on-chain finance.
As these systems handle more money and decisions,
the more mission-critical this data foundation becomes.
Actually, that's a banger. True story.
To learn more, visit...
visit, that's true, all of the crypt articles are
It's true. All of the crypto articles are still there.
still there. To learn more,
visit walrus.xyz
walrus.xyz
Mando, we missed you
over the end of last week.
Let's get right to you.
Who is the man?
Mackle daddy of the man.
Can you dig it?
GM, everyone. Yeah, sorry. I was in
New York
Friday. How's that?
It's cold, though. Wait, and snowy.
It was cold. It was cold,
but it was a good trip.
Met a bunch of people.
Saw KBM.
Yeah, good trip.
I was only there for one night.
One night.
How's KVM feeling?
Good.
Yeah.
Just his normal self, you know.
Just swings from bullish to bearish
every five minutes.
Hilarious to put in front of people.
But yeah, we met some investors and
he's a character. So
yeah, it was good.
Good trip.
Went out for a nice steak dinner together.
Where'd you go?
Oh, you have to... I forget the name of the place.
He chose it.
It wasn't very scene-y. It was like
all about the food.
But really good.
I love that. Well, that's a lot of fun. He was like, it was like, all about the food, but really good. I love that.
I love that.
Well,
that's a lot of fun.
He does.
You know what's funny about KBM?
For people who don't know,
he's the same in person
as in tweets.
Like he swings that way.
Yeah.
In front of you.
He's like that.
Which is,
it's spectacular to watch.
And he's also one of the nicest guys ever.
So we love KBM.
But anyways,
how's the markets?
I mean,
you came home back this,
you came back when we said on Friday,
so you must have, you know, got right into that.
Yeah, look, I, it's been a bit of a wild turn, right?
I think everyone was looking at a few things on last week,
which was this job losses,
potentially the idea that we could see widespread unemployment, which then may or may
not lead to like massive money printing. And everyone was trying to extrapolate what happened
with the block. And then in the background, we had the US-Iran stuff, which definitely felt like it
was getting worse over the course of that week, but still felt like a somewhat remote possibility,
maybe less than 50% that something was going to happen this weekend. And then we woke up to a situation
over the weekend. Again, this feels like maybe a large number of the objectives were potentially
achieved over that weekend, but it doesn't feel like the sort of conflict that's going to be over just yet.
I suspect, you know, even if they've got rid of, obviously, they've obviously killed Khamenei
and the vast majority of the Iranian leadership, but this isn't like Venezuela, I don't think,
where you just kind of, everyone falls in line afterwards.
I think this is going to be a bit more of a sustained fight here.
So I think, yeah, we'll expect to see stuff this week.
We've obviously seen that flare up on a macro basis
because this is now starting to affect a lot of the energy infrastructure in the space.
Qatar and the straightforward moves have both been affected.
And we've seen a rise in global oil prices, gas prices on the back of that.
So this does feel like it's going to be slightly extended.
I don't know where this kind of leads.
I don't think there'll be a ground offensive in any sort of way.
I still think this is going to be a case of you better stop
or we'll keep escalating.
or will keep escalating,
But I do think this will end at some point.
On the back of that,
crypto somewhat outperform,
I would say,
what I would have expected
versus previous times this has played up.
We went down to the low 60s
and then just kind of hung out
in a very tight range.
Gold went higher.
Some other metals,
silver seems to have went higher,
although this morning,
some of those gains have been given back.
Gold is still probably the best performer
at least over those three days
alongside, obviously, energy, oil and gas,
all higher.
And then crypto, we saw Hyperliquid
probably is the best performing major L1.
That broke through 30.
But there's a lot of coins
which just kind of put in a
tighter range almost here. They didn't really
break down lower or higher.
So we
were looking at Monero
obviously, which is kind of in that sort
of camp, just kind of hanging out really
where it was
throughout the
whole weekend.
And there's like a few different coins you put in that sort of bucket.
The best performing coin in the top 300,
the one that I've at least been looking at,
is this Venice coin, BBV.
I don't know if you guys have been looking at that.
Yeah, I saw that this weekend.
Put in quite a...
This is Eric Voorhees token.
Some of you may remember it from the pre-sale that was done.
Or was it the ICO?
I forget how this coin was launched,
but I remember there being some drama about the team selling
when this first launched.
This coin does look pretty good here,
and it's one that I took a position in over the weekend
just because it was breaking out like that.
And it's basically...
So what Venice is, is it's an AI
that basically sits on top of a lot of the other LLMs
but allows you to do things without...
with some added levels of privacy slash security.
So all of the questions that you ask LLM is not stored on the LLM side,
it's stored on your side, and they are not able to use your data essentially.
So any question that you ask is not seen by the LLM side.
is not seen by the LLM side.
It also then means that some of the checks and balances
or some of the security features are somewhat repealed as well.
So it's increased in popularity.
In fact, for the stage that OpenClaw now uses Venice
as its default LLM.
What does
VVB do? VVB,
as far as I am aware,
is currently usable
for subscriptions
and discounts
on those subscriptions.
If you go to venus.ai,
this is a
you have to pay, I think it's
something like 20 bucks a month to use it.
And, but there are, there are cheaper models if you have the token or you stake the token
and that gives you access to the API.
So I don't really know if that means that this token should be worth that much.
It's about $500 million.
It seems like people will extrapolate it on a multiple of subscription revenue, potentially,
and then start to value it.
But just because of the use of the platform, it's now got over 2 million users.
Wow.
People have now gotten bullish about it. the platform. It's now got over 2 million users. Wow.
Eric Voorhees,
if you don't know, an OG crypto guy. Actually,
I think the first person
to experiment with crypto and
gambling. He created Satoshi Dice back in the
day. He was an original
gambling guy. Sold that
business and then got into DeFi
and then got into
this AI stuff.
So he's been like a serial entrepreneur, let's say, in crypto.
But yeah, originally Satoshi Dice, which is the OG gambling crypto platform.
Yeah, he's quite a chad.
We should get him on.
Yeah, we should.
It's one of those AI coins.
It's like it's not a meme AI coins it's not a meme coin
it's a real product
it's got real utility for the token
you can stake it
which gives you access to their API
and inference capacity where you don't have to pay for requests
so there's a real reason to own the token
what pushed a 300% spike
though from the bottom here
on February 13th?
Which, by the way, damn.
That's a 3x you can take on size.
I think OpenClaw.
OpenClaw now is using it as its default model.
What?
Yeah.
Because of the security stuff and the privacy layer,
this is actually seen as somewhat valuable now
to not share that data with the providers.
So for an open source choice, it's generally... it's been preferred.
You can go on to type in venice.ai. It's better that you actually look at the product a little
look at the product a little bit before
bit before you're looking at the coin. What do you want me to ask?
looking at the coin.
What do you want me to ask?
You can ask anything, but then if you go
down slightly,
you can
kind of see...
Keep on going down.
You can use all these sort of models with it
and images. You can create images
as well.
And the idea is that they don't have any of your details slash data
when you're asking an LLM these questions.
Yeah, so there you go.
It's about $20 a month, but the coin is somewhat going to make it cheaper
or allow you to use the API at least cheaper.
Fully diluted, $440.
Yeah.
Market cap, $295.
Got it.
It's 10% circ...
No, it's more 50% circ, actually.
Remember what I'm saying.
More than 50% circulating.
There has been some rallies in this world of crypto
meets AI.
If you look at the best performing tokens
over the last 30 days, some of them are like
the scam shit,
like Pippin or
whatever.
There's Venice, there's Kite,
which is like this
agentic L1.
I don't see how bullish that is.
It doesn't seem that much different to other ones,
but it is an agentic AI one.
And then there's other ones like Grass,
which is where training data for AI is shared,
like a deep-end network.
So if there's one bright spot in crypto is it has been some of
these crypto meets ai places over the last over the last month it's a bright spot can we come
back to majors majors are a bright spot right now they're right there they're ripping fucking fly
in real time 68 7 oh wow we are we. This is actually quite a candle on Bitcoin.
I mean, it's still within this range, but we're nearly 69K.
Wow.
Beautiful.
Where does this get exciting?
So if we break over this line here?
Yeah, this is the old lines.
The lines haven't changed in months, except I had a new one below.
This has been a tight range here, right?
What a handle, guys.
The last two hours?
Was there any...
Is this maybe
front-running the Trump speech
at 11 or no?
Speak in 40 minutes.
I don't know.
Wow, yeah. It's a decent move here, don't know. Wow, yeah.
It's a decent move here, isn't it?
Hype, 72.
It's a huge move.
Yeah, hype.
I mean, fuck.
I can't believe I missed this hype trade.
I mean, it does seem like this was a real overhang, right?
Like, this has been hanging over crypto markets.
And now, of course, the war is not over by any means.
I think there's a huge question on how long it's going to last.
So it's hard to get too excited on a Monday.
Wow.
I think one negative catalyst perhaps removed.
I mean, so let's talk about this.
The strikes were on Saturday early morning.
The market tanked to $63,000 Bitcoin.
And then we closed the day green.
That's pretty strong if you ask me.
I was in the camp thinking that this would actually take Bitcoin finally below $60,000.
And we didn't.
Do you guys have any opinion on this?
This is pretty wild.
Knowing that we just didn't even really budge here, right there.
I think it's a channel.
It's the 2024 channel.
I'm still very, very wary of going all in at this sort of level.
It's just been rejected how many times.
Including the times in 2024, we hit it 11 times.
This is the third time we've hit that sort of level.
This feels like really an error channel.
And if we break above 73k,
we might push very easily towards 80k.
I guess it's very low in the way,
but it feels slightly...
Yeah.
No, obviously I have some
longs. I have Monero and I have this
Venice token and
gold, basically.
yeah, this doesn't make me want to go
all in Bitcoin just yet.
Where do we go all in Bitcoin?
I like buying breakouts.
So if we broke out of that channel,
is where I would buy it.
While we're still in that channel,
we're now just approaching the top level.
They say like,
volume happens at the edges
with these sort of channels right
don't get caught in the middle
good advice
just
wait for it to go to one side or the other
and then either go long or short for a breakout
or for a reversal
that makes sense
that makes perfect sense
I'm positioned in
medals and meme coins what could go wrong
you know i'm in um i'm in then small coins and then uh metals that's my hedge but there are some
bigger impacts to this right i've already seen talks like so what does this mean for the dollar
is the dollar going to be stronger now on the back of this?
What does that mean for markets?
Of course, near term, we perhaps have an inflation shock.
Again, I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves.
We're on day three.
If the war goes for four weeks plus, I think that's likely a bigger deal for oil.
Switch off the seen, right?
Four weeks.
I wonder if there's something that's going to come out at 11 that is causing a move so aggressive.
It's just like the range being the range.
Well, you forgot that Jane Street is gone.
Did you notice that the Iran strikes were at 10 a.m. local time?
Jane Street.
I think Jane Street quit behind that.
The other overhang, though, is we do have the blood moon tomorrow.
3-3.
Tomorrow's 3-3.
We have the blood moon at 3-3-3 a.m.
Yeah.
Ooh.
That's another overhang.
Wait, we didn't ask Venice. What does that mean? Let's ask Venice. It's another overhang. Wait, we didn't ask Venice.
What does that mean?
Let's ask Venice.
It's good to use.
What blood moon means, right?
So let's take it there.
What does the blood moon on 3.3 mean for crypto markets?
I don't know if you need an account
to do that.
Maybe you don't.
No, no, I don't think so.
It says ask anything.
There we go.
There we go.
It's thinking.
I've never used this before.
I'm very interested to see this live.
The blood moon on March 3rd,
2026 doesn't have any
direct proven correlation crypto.
Price prediction.
What?
Is this
175k Q1?
I need to go long VVV.
The Megabull LLM.
Is this LLM
telling us that we're going
175k?
I think it's saying between 120 to 175k actually but but
that is i don't know if i should sell all my vvd right now or buy it i i'm like hold on is is vvv
is bet is telling us we're going 120 to 170k in q1 this is the last month of q1 that's what the first sentence this
is the thing this is the thing behind all of open claw right now so uh by the way claude has been
so bad lately i know it's not open club but i'm saying um what does the blood moon mean for crypto
markets give me an analysis i have to say we do need to build an LLM for crypto.
I tend to find that Grok is the best
because it uses a lot of the Twitter data for it.
It's true.
Short answer.
Here we go.
What's he going to say?
Stock returns tend to be lower full moons
versus new moons.
Lunar eclipses can trigger more pessimistic analyst forecasts.
Uh-oh.
Uh-oh.
Uh-oh.
Uh-oh.
Terra Luna collapsed on a blue moon?
Uh-oh.
May 2 blood moon, Terra Luna collapsed.
November 22 lunar eclipse Eclipse FTX collapse
And we're getting
A Blood Moon
Plus a Lunar Eclipse
Eclipse tomorrow
You know what
Two negatives
Make a positive
Oh great point
Yeah
Yeah
We're getting a Blood Moon
Which is a negative
And a Lunar Eclipse
Which is a negative
But that makes a positive
Should we talk
A little bit about I brought up The Blood Moon thing Should we talk a little bit about,
I brought up the bloodman thing.
Should we talk a little bit?
I know man,
those time is limited.
This anthropic open AI situation that played out on Friday.
And now it's already been like kind of forgotten about,
but probably is going to come back to the forefront.
I mean,
the pretty insane story.
So the U S department of war was clearly pressuring Dario and
anthropic.
They wanted to use their models.
It seemed like Dario was saying there's two red lines.
We don't want automated surveillance.
We don't want fully autonomous drones.
And for whatever reason, they couldn't reach agreement on language in the
contracts.
And Dario stuck to his grounds.
He did a bit of a press tour about it as well.
Right after the deadline, effectively like Hegseth and Trump came out and said, well,
you are a supply chain risk now.
And all federal agencies and companies that work, I understood as any company who works
with the federal government is no longer able to work with Anthropic.
It was a pretty major decree.
And then an hour later, Sam Altman swoops in and effectively signs the deal.
Yeah.
And it came out that he basically said it's the same terms.
And they, but like the caveat was that they, they, they did it with like within the current laws.
The no one law.
That's where I kind of lie on this.
Where do you lie on this, Tyler?
You're American.
There's a case here which is like,
oh, they did the right thing
because we can't trust our governments to do,
to use the technology in the right way.
But at the same time,
that kind of puts these tech companies
almost above the law
or think that they can be above that.
And I think I can see both sides to that.
I could very easily argue both sides,
which is that I don't think the bosses of AI firms
should decide the use case of the AI.
I think that should be around laws around that.
I completely agree.
Maybe we don't know what we don't know.
We don't know.
And we don't know what this was exactly going to be used for.
And we don't know what this was exactly going to be used for.
And maybe there was an idea that that would be illegal.
And if that was in the public knowledge, then it would be perhaps deemed illegal.
Now, that feels to me like what they're claiming.
Almost that this is almost like illegal actions that we're trying to stop happening.
So they're kind of accusing the U.S. government of maybe doing things
that they shouldn't be doing.
I really don't know where I stand on it.
It's a tricky conversation, right?
Can they really have Google and everybody divest their interest
in Anthropic over this and then fully stop it from growing
because they used to work with the U.S. government?
And what does that mean?
I mean, they could.
I don't think they will.
I feel like it was a little bit of posturing.
But I'm in the camp.
I feel like Dario, they're overstepping a little bit, personally.
Like Sam Altman's response basically said like, Hey,
like we also disagreed to these things and said that we're going to operate
within the laws of the United States.
And I think Paul Marlucky had a pretty nice response to all this.
Like, okay, these are your two red lines.
Well, what are these two lines even mean?
Like what are the definitions of these things?
So like, and we were not in the room.
We don't know exactly all the context behind this,
but I think there's a lot more to the story.
And I do think Dario and Enthorpe
very well might think they
are smarter and they
should control the use of their models
more so than the US government.
I think the context of this,
Dario, out of all the AI
chiefs, has been the most
pro-safety one.
I know we've just added the whole Claude Coves thing,
but he's from the effective altruism community,
which is the SPF community,
which was a lot about charitable stuff,
but it was also around AI.
It was what originally OpenAI was,
a lot of the people were around,
which was this kind of like, we are actually using this to try and build safety around AI
to make sure it doesn't go too far.
Do I think just because he has those values, he necessarily has the power?
I don't think so.
So yeah, that's the side that I also lie on.
But then that's also the side where you have to trust the government.
And I think a lot of people in crypto...
Because I think Nick Carter got flamed for that similar sort of take
in crypto this weekend,
where he was like, you're not above the law.
And then Nick Carter says he invests in anti-establishment.
Yeah, he got flamed hard by everyone on X.
The thing is, I think
his take is wrong, though, right?
Like,
if government
can just do this to their biggest private companies,
then the government runs...
Like, it's not...
It's pretty totalitarian
take, right? But we don't know
the details as well. We don't know what's happening
behind the scenes. It is a totalitarian take. We don't know what's happening behind the scenes.
It is a totalitarian take.
We don't know what's happening behind the scenes
between the Secretary of War and Anthropik, etc.
But...
Let's put it in the case of different sorts of technology.
Do you think that the US government should have been stopped
using certain forms of internet or network connectivity because of what they were going to do with it?
Do you think they should have been stopped from using certain sorts of like weaponry back in the day because of what they would do with it?
Like that's kind of what's being said.
This isn't the original use case of the technology, but you can use it for this sort of stuff.
And then who decides whether it should be or can be used i don't i think that is a
that is a political slash social decision more than than it is like a business decision but
lots of businesses have you know use of use of tech policies you know yeah and we converted
the ford plants into where where into manufacturing jets in the forties.
Right.
So it's,
it's the same thing to me.
I do want to address like this.
I saw this comment,
like fairly common on X that he says,
the tech's not ready.
Don't you think he knows better than heck Seth?
I think,
I think the U S demonstrated there,
the military isn't exactly dumb.
Pinpoint strikes across the U.S.
I don't think they're just going to be rushing out new technology that isn't tested already.
I think they've earned the benefit of that.
So you think that Dario is smarter than Hexeth, and that's your whole basis for backing them in this decision?
I feel like that's pretty common. I think that's your whole basis for backing them in this decision. And I feel like that's pretty common.
I think that's,
it's not the right way to look at this personally.
I think they both know what they're talking about for what it's worth,
but there's definitely an overreach on one end at the moment.
And then we'll see.
I think the end result is that opening.
I decided that they were comfortable with it.
So also,
even if this was seen as some sort of last stand in this,
it's just going to be some other firm that comes and does this.
So I think that whether you think who was right or wrong,
the end result is the U.S. is going to use the latest AI technology
to do whatever the hell it likes.
Yeah.
And if we want to have stronger controls about that,
by speaking with somebody who doesn't live in the U.S.,
you need to get laws around that.
Maybe there will be.
But Anthropics still might very well win.
They're the number one app in the App Store this weekend.
They're cooking,
except that they've been down every other day lately.
Yeah, they're down this morning.
But besides that, there's a big – I removed ChatGPT from my main screen on my iPhone.
I still have it, obviously, as a backup, and I put Claude because I go to it first.
Although it's not perfect.
Just a little imperfections, but it seems like that was the fastest horse recently.
So look, we'll see where that conversation goes.
But it's definitely an interesting one.
Wow, Bitcoin just hit 69K.
ETH's lagging here.
This is very much a Bitcoin-led move.
Yeah, Bitcoin is freaking ripping here.
Look at that.
It's trying to break our line.
Wow.
Guys, look at this. I wasn't expecting 69K today. It's trying to break our line. Wow. What a...
Guys, look at this.
I wasn't expecting 69 today.
What a...
The four hour is ridiculous.
What's going on here?
Completely sidelined here.
Let's talk about Apple Liquid a little bit.
I mean, it was the winner of the weekend.
So it all kind of started.
There was this Bloomberg headline.
I remember.
Which one?
There was a Bloomberg headline
that came out on Saturday
effectively praising Hyperliquid.
This is where
the traders are turning to trade
the war over the weekend.
I did not see that.
I posted about on saturday
i posted a decent amount um i'll find it oh wow crypto traders flocked the hyperliquid exchange
to hedge commodities as the conflict between the u.s israel and iran erupts um i think i've seen
the maybe name drop hyperliquid like a times, but like, this is a big one,
right?
And like,
it's,
it's really going from niche crypto to like,
okay,
traders around the world are going to be using hyper liquid.
And then like the,
the technicals.
So that's like a,
you know,
more of a soft bull argument,
like the technicals backed it up.
So open interest and hip
three hit a all-time high so that they're the section of hyper liquid where you can trade trad
trad five where you can trade gold silver metals all that hit a new all-time high and open interest
so there's some real uh fundamentals behind the move here and i think it was 25 26
at the low now cruising at 32 what is that 30 percent over yeah 25 30 move that's a huge move
now 26 has been defended so much in Hyperliquid. I'm kind of
kicking myself for not taking a position here.
Yeah, 25% move. You and I were kind
of hoping we'd maybe get sub-20. I don't know
if we're going to get a sub-20 entry.
Well, not sub-20. I was
hoping more back to...
I was hoping for...
I selfishly wanted my 13.
You really wanted sub-20?
Oh yeah, 18 was the lowest i thought
but after that run to the 38 that was gone not gone that's all hopes are gone also i mean so we
we had the january bottom hype went all the way to like 36 and then all the way back down to 25 26
and like it looked like yeah if bitcoin goes to mid 50s maybe it goes um the other one player zero man hey what hell brother i mean
that one is up 25 well as well as we went to founder on last week
i just completely missed all the trades this week i was i mean obviously war never looks really good
so i was positioned towards medals which actually don't have my call either but uh gold's doing I just completely missed all the trades this week. I mean, obviously, Ward never looks really good.
So I was positioned towards medals, which I actually don't have my call either.
But Gould's doing great.
But damn, CRO, 25% as well.
Yeah, that's the other one that's the biggest, one of the biggest winners of the weekend.
So when they were on the show, I think it was like $1.60.
$1.51.
Yeah.
So now that's 25%. Yeah.
Big move.
And that was another one.
We were talking like we'd love to see an entry around $1.
We're not getting $1 on zero.
We're going to just stop waiting for anything.
But the thing is, nobody could have known.
So by the way, if you listened to the show last week, pretty spot on.
It's funny.
I texted a friend of mine saying that 28th would be the strikes because of this.
It was half a meme, the planetary alignment thing.
Not that they look at planetary alignment and strike.
But I was on the show last week, correct me if I'm wrong, but I was telling people to be careful around the markets
because a strike is very possible after market hours on a Friday because it's what they usually do.
And to the metals probably trade.
Metals ran.
Bitcoin went to $500 to $400.
And then crypto went actually much lower, right?
It went to $63K.
But I think so that I wasn't caught off guard by that, but definitely caught off guard by
this, by the reaction and closing Saturday green.
I would have never expected that.
Never.
And then I was expecting to open green, red, because when Trump went on the record yesterday and said that it could be a four-week-long war, and then that this has kind of been escalating,
right?
I don't know if you guys follow me, but the last two days, like, last 24 hours, like,
there's been a lot of, you know, missiles going out both ways and always and anyways.
I was not expecting the market to react this way
pretty surprising for monday there's another aspect of this without getting like
too in the weeds but as i understand it's like iran is a huge bitcoin miner and like two to five
percent of global bitcoin hash rate mining comes from iran and they can as i understand they can
mine for very cheap because of the energy they have
over there, which means they're effectively mining for cheap.
So they're just selling, right?
So this is perhaps alleviating some sell pressure.
Is that a part of this move?
I don't know.
I might be reaching a bit with, with that take,
but perhaps a part of this.
Or maybe is this just a short squeeze?
Yeah, it very well could be that. And I don't want to get too excited at range highs no you can't we know that you and i some
things have changed over the last week for sure and i do think people i mean you're maybe not
the sharks but retail pays attention to strength, right?
And crypto outperforming amidst a war scenario, I think, will be seen as positive.
I don't understand this move.
This is an insane candle.
And I love it.
Don't get me wrong.
Wow.
This is quite the move.
But anyways, okay, so that's that i think market-wise we've gone around the horn quite well tyler let's uh let's take it to you and see what you got for
us for the nfd and crypto analysis
yeah folks crypto majors are bright green
here on Monday morning. We've got Bitcoin
up 3% 69,440.
Wow, knocking on 70k.
ETH up 2%.
2056, Alana up
2.3% at 88.55.
Now all those majors are actually green
on the week as well.
So substantially higher than we were
on Monday.
Oil was up fairly substantially in pre-markets. It's up 7% here. And notably, US stocks opened very red down. NASDAQ was down
1.5%. It's now down 0.15%. So stocks are erasing that sell-off as well. We talked about a high
rally, 13% over the weekend. 31.32 as HIP3 open interest set a new all-time
high.
Trump media is weighing spinning off
TrueSocial into a separate public entity called
SpinCo. It would merge with Texas Ventures 3.
We have Minnesota lawmakers
considering a full statewide ban on
crypto ATMs. It would be the first U.S.
state to do that. And Ripple introduced some new
funding routes for XRP ledger development,
a new builder
program, and some university partnerships.
And ETF news, a few headlines here.
So the Bitcoin ETF, $787 million in net inflows last week, while the ETFs put up about $80
million.
So it was one of our first green weeks in what feels like a long time.
This week, we'll certainly be telling for those ETFs, expecting some inflows today.
And then Trump media, there was headlines last week that they had sold like 2000 Bitcoin.
It looks like that was actually just a transfer and that Bitcoin was being pledged as collateral.
So they did not sell that.
So a clarification there.
And then Saylor, we got the news out of Saylor.
They did buy 200 million in Bitcoin last week.
So higher than the prior week before that is at a 67, six average,
which if you look at the chart from last week, uh, that, that was the high of the week. So they
somehow, he's a genius now, but he's green. He is green on those, uh, buys in token and drop and
protocol news. Um, it's a big weekend for prediction markets, but also perhaps a little bit on the negative side,
a lot of inside trading talk around some of the Iran markets.
I think one wallet won like 1.2 million betting on the strike
just in the hours right before it.
Calci caught some heat as well
for effectively not resolving their community market
so they don't do death markets.
That let off a bit of a firestorm.
We had Crypto VC Paradigm announce a new $1.5 billion fund focused on AI robotics.
So they are perhaps pivoting a bit.
Then Backpack came out and explained more about their token equity program.
And memes.
Memes were red this morning, though.
I'm sure they're flipping green.
And not really a whole lot of action over the weekend and that was it there really wasn't a whole lot of crypto specifics
over the past few days it was a lot more of the macro kind of leading all the headlines
and which is what we warned against right um on all last week we're saying like right now there's
not much news coming out of crypto it's mostly going to come out of macro and obviously like
coming out of crypto, it's mostly going to come out of macro
and obviously like
war news, etc. But this has been
what's been holding
most of everything
back or not
actually in that sense.
Tyler, where should we even start here?
I mean, obviously it's not too much, but we have
time for a couple of bigger headlines.
Well, one that I didn't listen to in this
but we can talk about. There was like the X creator
debacle over the weekend.
So X is now rolling out a new paid partnerships button.
So anyone who is doing paid posts will have the ability to disclose that via a tag.
There was a big flurry of concern.
of concern perhaps i don't know what the right word is yesterday morning over whether or not it
was even allowed to post about crypto about casinos about a flurry of other topics or was it actually
against x's terms and conditions ultimately it seems like that was much ado about nothing
ultimately it is okay to post on those topics. You just need to disclose it.
See, a lot of folks say this is the death of CT. Everyone kind of victory lapping it.
Kind of the death of CT every other week, huh?
It's an immature test.
Yeah, I think it should be. It will be in a positive. We will see. I mean, we can talk about this this is really relevant to CT I think I mean if
Craig
I mean I don't mean to point fingers
or anything
but I do believe that
a lot of these changes
are because of CT right
the larger companies
and the gambling companies
prediction market companies
and sponsoring a lot of the
broader news
not just CT by the way
like I think Nikita
really pissed him off
with this news site
that was sponsored by either
CalShare or PondMark
I forget
and was saying
yo like
put in your next tweet that you're gonna to, you're partnered or else I'm going to delete you,
right? So that's how it started a couple weeks ago, if I'm not mistaken. And then that's the
whole conversation on CT, which is the one you're talking about now. And so, and it's true that all
the big, you know, the Walter Bloombergs, where we get our news, we monitor situations from pages
that are literally sponsored. So it's beyond CT. It's not your little CTKOL
being sponsored by a casino. That's the problem here.
It's like really like the big news pages where people
get their news
that are sponsored. And he
wanted this disclosure. I made a comment yesterday
saying that this is actually bullish
CT. So I'm going to share my screen. It's this one, right?
This new disclosure tool.
And someone asked me why.
Simply because I think more transparency leads to better information,
first and foremost.
And second of all,
I strongly believe that this will also filter out
the people that don't want to be transparent
and therefore they will just stop.
Right?
So will this lead to a little more soft shilling?
Sure.
But let's be honest,
I much prefer soft shilling than hard shilling on the timeline.
That's just me.
Maybe I'm wrong.
And then second of all, for the reason that I said,
but Chris, your thoughts.
I mean, you're a KOL, someone with an audience.
You have a newsletter that's powered by Yeet.
You also obviously do some advertising here and there,
and you have a large audience.
What's your take on this news?
Yeah, I'm a huge fan of it.
I think it's just love.
It's just clean.
Like here's the button.
And now also it's like in some ways you don't have to dance around some of the language
like, oh, partnered with So, my partner's here.
You know, thank you for helping.
Thanks for working with us on this post, all this stuff.
So we can just, you can just put the tag right out there.
I am curious. So like, are they going to, is it going to lead to disengagement?
Like, are they going to kind of nerf these posts? I mean,
certainly I'm sure folks will have the ability to hide them in their feeds.
So I think that that will likely be coming.
So perhaps we'll see some packs down the line with respect to that.
But I do think it is
pretty big.
Everything on your post is mad.
I think it's a positive. The pitch folks are already out.
I'm already seeing the folks are just
trying to report
anything under the sun that looks like
it could be an undisclosed shill.
So it's going to be messy out there
for the future.
I've blocked the problem.
So yesterday, I couldn't see any partnership posts from anyone on my computer.
It's because of the adblocker.
And he's saying adblock plus your adblocker is hiding people's own posts.
I could see that.
He did say he likes prediction markets.
But see, I can't show you that because I can't see that because he did say he likes prediction markets but see i can't show you that because
i can't see the because it said sponsored um on the on the post but i i i strongly believe
they're doing a lot of things that is making this app better i know we complain a lot about x here
and there but where did you spend all your weekend on when you were monitoring the situation like i
had one tv on on news at all times because wanted to hear it in the background and see it as well.
But it's funny.
I was getting my news on X fast.
And then 15 minutes later, the television would be like, the Ayatollah is dead.
I'm like, dude, I've known this for like two hours.
So it's pretty crazy.
And they were saying, Elon and Nikita said that it was the biggest week in the history of X, which is pretty impressive.
And I think that X is definitely making moves for the better.
So looking forward to this.
I think this will make CT better in general, but not just CT.
It's actually all FinTweet, right?
It's finance Twitter, news Twitter, crypto Twitter, which has kind of become one thing.
And this is where there's the most advertisement, because to be honest, this is where the money's
It's people that have money.
So you target people that have money when you do advertising.
So, uh, it makes a lot of sense.
But anyways, what else, Ty?
That was a big one.
Other than that, I mean, I think Ventuals caught a little bit of love.
We don't talk about Ventuals a ton.
No, I see the tweets.
So effectively what they are is another like hyperliquid hip three style market, but they also have a private markets pre IPO.
So you can trade open AI, you can trade Anthropic, you can trade SpaceX.
Of course you need to know what, what you are, you are actually trading.
You know, you're not, um, you're probably trading like a synthetic version.
I'd have to go through their docs to see exactly what the definitions are.
The open interest, the volume isn't super high by any means.
4 million bucks in open AI, 2 million in SpaceX, 785K in Anthropoc. But an interesting crypto native platform where if you saw the mania playing out on
Friday between Anthropoc the U.S.
Department of War, and OpenAI, you could have put a trade on.
I do think Anthropic did fall briefly.
Oh, yeah, you can see it.
So it went from 529 to 465.
So it could 10% fall, and then it rebounded there on Saturday.
So another interesting crypto-native market where you can start to trade
some of these products.
So I think expect,
I'm expecting to see their volumes go up.
I'll be curious.
Wait,
can you trade these on,
on hyper liquid?
Well,
can hyper liquid just like do this?
It depends.
Would they want to?
Oh yeah. So, okay they want to? Got it.
Oh, yeah.
So, okay.
So, SpaceX is, wow.
All right.
You can't.
Oh, it's, you can trade on Hyperliquid, but they're linking you to the Vengefuls token.
Ah, yeah.
Oh, that's super bullish.
Vengefuls.
Yeah, yeah.
Okay.
So, it's a token that's trading right now.
Say that again.
Does Vengefuls have a. Does Ventral has a token?
Do they have it?
I don't think so.
Okay.
That'll be a nice token if they drop one.
I mean, we covered when they launched, right?
We can get Ventral on the show if you want.
I mean, we've got time.
Yeah, I think it's an interesting one.
I want to hear a little bit more about how they see these markets evolving.
They're quite active.
I mean, a piece of news that kind of got buried over the weekend.
So Tesla came out, or SpaceX, Elon, came out and said,
SpaceX is going to IPO, I think, within like the next month.
What?
So they're going to try to front run this.
And I do think that's important because if you look at the IPO sizes,
SpaceX is going to IPO like $1.75 trillion. OpenAI probably around 1 trillion, Anthropix trading at 500, half a trillion right now.
Those are going to be massive IPOs.
There's a lot of concern.
There's not going to be liquidity in the market for all of those.
So I think you want to be first.
Yeah.
And now if you want to, there's, for most of of us it's been pretty impossible to trade those now
here's a here's a way you you perhaps can but of course take it with a grain of salt make sure you
understand what you are trading and other than that that was pretty much it it was more of a
more of a quiet weekend for more of the downstream yeah yeah it was well we'll have stuff tomorrow
i just realized that's a pretty hard stop
in six minutes
so let's give some money away
let's give some money away
prepping my next interview
it's gonna be a big one
oh yeah
alright Charlie
let's pull it up
let's
alright we
okay went to 69-4
we rejected there
Ty let's see where that goes after.
Let's see where we go there.
Let me open Eats in the meantime.
Maybe it's a little Omaha today just for the sake of...
Yeah, fast one.
Also, Omaha.
All right.
Let's see.
Let's see what we got.
Let's see what we got.
Hey, Tony. Hey, Tony. Here's see. Let's see what we got. Let's see what we got. Hectony.
Hectony.
Here we go.
Hectony.
Hectony.
H-E-C-Tony.
Congratulations, H-E-C-Tony.
H-E-C-Tony.
I see a lot of GGs in the chat.
I like to see that.
Who is Heck Tony?
Heck Tony.
Where is it?
Where is Heck Tony?
Tony.
All right, there you go.
Thanks for the gifted subs, Spacebar.
I see you're trying to troll everybody saying it's a bot, but thanks for the subs.
All right, Tony, I'm going to play some Omaha for you here.
So congratulations, you already made $500.
Reminder, you have to log into Yeet.com every single day to claim your money.
$100 a day.
All right, let's go. Let's to claim your money. $100 a day. All right.
Let's go.
Let's get some good hats.
Let's get a full house.
Oh, wow.
Look at that.
Pair of eights.
All right.
We can get a one card here for sure.
Oh, baby.
That's a nice win.
Sweeps the board.
Sweeps the board?
I've never seen that.
Oh, yeah.
Swept the board.
2X and 4X.
So, wow.
542 already? All right. He's up 1,0x and 4x. So, wow, 542 already?
All right, we have 1,040.
Nice start.
1,040, let's go.
3 of a kind.
I think that's true.
We both have 3 of a kind because it's the board.
And Ace wins it.
Bam.
Oh, my God.
Wow.
That'll sweep.
$1,500 win for
$1,600. Oh, shit, he won't even more.
He won't $642.
What a morning.
That's
$1,700.
Wow!
Dude!
Oh, because you get the higher multiplier
on your $25 side bet for the
flush or better. Exactly.
Wow.
What?
$1,700 on Omaha's?
It's 3X.
Oh, no.
Sorry.
It's $1,000 because it was the 500 I added.
Okay.
But still.
There you go.
$1,700.
$1,700.
So with that being said, we'll see you all tomorrow morning.
10 a.m. Eastern.
Peace out.
