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Friday Market Discussion
Recorded: March 28, 2025 Duration: 0:56:10Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed Bitcoin's volatile price movements, exploring both bullish and bearish market trends. Key insights included the significance of the 70-80K price range as a support level, the impact of negative wealth effects on investor sentiment, and the potential for future growth despite recent declines.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. you
You know what's up guys? We'll get started in just a second, so give everyone a couple minutes
to hop on in, and then we'll get going.
So yeah, just give everyone a couple minutes, chill for a second,
and we'll get to show on the road.
And if you guys have questions during the spaces, by the way,
or anything you want me to answer,
feel free to post them in like the spaces thread, like at the bottom right,
there's that little like purple box.
You just post questions under the thread
and I'll try to get to them as well.
But yeah, let's give everyone another minute
and then we'll get to show on the road. Thank you. All right, guys, let's get the show on the road.
Hope everyone's doing all right.
Hope people are feeling good.
Where to start? I don't even know when the last time I ran a space, to be honest. It must have been a while ago.
Definitely been pretty busy on my end in terms of IRL things, so I haven't had the time to really run one of these.
terms of IRL things, so haven't had the time to really run one of these.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure the last time I ran it, we were sort of sitting in the mid or
low 90Ks or something, and then we ended up bouncing a couple times.
I certainly wasn't expecting us to dive as hard as we did to start off like to 77. When we broke 90, I don't know, it was like 93,
whatever it was, like when we broke that level, I sort of thought like we'd maybe find a bottom
in the mid 80s or like worst case, like low 80s. But we ended up diving all the way to 78.
And then we bounced, like we bounced to 95 because of the Trump shit.
And I think we had another bounce to like 92 or something.
And then both of those got snuffed out.
And then we actually ended up diving and baking a new low.
So from there, we basically have been grinding up for the last two, three weeks.
And we got all the way up to like, close to 89.
And after that, we, you know, sort of rejected. And, you know, today we rejected and here we are.
So the question in my mind is like, you know, one, where is the market? Two, like, what's going on?
And where do I think things are probably heading in the coming, I don't know, weeks or months or whatever.
And I can make good arguments on both sides.
But where should I even begin? That's a better question.
I guess let me first start off by saying this.
I think the way in which we capitulated down to 77,
like, one, we had a 78 low, let's call it that,
and then we had that 77 low.
And the way in which that 77 low sort of happened
with every point just getting hammered,
and obviously some coins have made new lows, right,
like ETHBTC and so forth,
it's hard for me to imagine something like that
just recapitulates so easily. Like, if anything, I lean more towards the side of that 77 low should
hold for a while. And I'm not, and so my, I guess I'll talk locally and I can sort of zoom out and
talk a little bit about, give both the midterm bear case and the midterm bull case,
and why I lean one particular way over the other.
So like lower timeframe, let me start there.
So, you know, we bottomed at 77, we started going up.
And I think the good sign was like,
you were having these days where NASDAQ was getting hammered.
And then like BTC would dump, but then it would auto rebound.
And you kept getting this sort of like fractal price action.
And then we ultimately like, and sentiment was pretty bearish, like at 81, 82, people
were pretty bummed out about how the market was trading, at least like based off what
I was seeing in terms of
people's reactions on CT. Then we ended up pumping to 87.5 or whatever. It was basically
like a wick in some ways. I think that was like Saylor buying his first batch of BTC.
And then it ended up dumping back out to 84. And we sort of plateaued at 84 for a couple
days. And yeah, sentiment became pretty shitty. People seem to be resigned to the fact that maybe
the market is just gonna, you know, chop or do whatever. And then we had the second leg up to
like 89. And I thought that it was going to break 90
initially I thought we would just break 90 at some point
I guess once we had that sort of
third rejection like we pumped a
close to 89 we dumped
back down to like 86
then we pumped again to you know
88.5 we had a smaller
dump to 87 and then on
that third leg up when we went to like 88.3
I thought that leg was probably
gonna result in us breaking out I guess once that didn't happen I thought something looks a little
bit sketch we've been having this sort of uh let me see if I can pin I don't I don't think I made a
tweet about this particular like fractal pattern but uh maybe i'll pin this thing to my spaces let's see like if you
look at us making all these lower highs i've noticed like more recently when you get this sort
of market price action uh it tends to be like you sort of end up running like the market ends up
dumping it to some degree or another so basically what I was seeing was like,
then you ended up having these two,
like almost flash crashes to 85,
you know,
sub 85,
sorry,
sub 86,
they get auto rebought.
And so like the price was basically chilling around,
you're chilling above 87 for the majority of the time.
And so the question to me was like, okay, are we going to break out immediately? Or are we going to, or are we going to like, maybe flush again? And one other thing I noticed was like,
and again, this is just anecdotal, like low timeframe, all of like the CT, like influencers
and all the YouTubers, like including Sato or like Max Long
so I figured hey what's up Sona so I figured like maybe we end up flushing first and that's
what it basically what ended up happening and I don't know in my opinion I'd be pretty surprised
if we end up seeing 80 again I'd be like, like, very surprised if we saw, like, I'm talking low time frame. Like, you know, if we go up and build leverage and then come back down, like, yeah, 80's on the table. But if we end up going to 80, you know, three days later, or even like 77, right? Like, 77's a more extreme number uh i would be pretty surprised i think the market
if it hasn't bottomed it's like basically in the vicinity of like uh where you would want to rebuy
uh and it wouldn't surprise me if we meander a bit like we basically flushed out anyone who
was long the last five days right and the question is how many of those people are still left
there's probably some but my guess is a good amount actually probably got flushed. Like
you had the Sato's get flushed. You had some like other A's get flushed, right? You have things
like Fartcoin down 25% off its highs basically in a day. Actually more than 25%, like more like 30%.
Sol back to sub 130, like each BTC making new lows.
So like a lot of things have reset,
like maybe the two coins that haven't fully reset are Fartcoin and Doge.
But most of these other coins have pulled a pretty big reset.
So from that perspective, you know,
I'm not too, I'm pretty constructive on the market, I guess. That's what I'm trying to
say. Like, I'm not surprised by the sell-off. I'm not surprised that we ended up dumping but I think like these dumps are basically just there to be bought like you also have another so okay
so let's zoom out a little bit too so okay so low time frame I think we're going to go up
or I think this is basically like the vicinity of like an accumulation like reaccumulation zone
um people can be feel free to disagree.
I'm hearing like, here's another thing, right?
And I guess this is nitpicking.
So take it as you will.
But like the NASDAQ was trading at 19,000.
Cause I hear a lot of people talking about NASDAQ and tariffs and uncertainty.
The NASDAQ was trading at 19,200 when BTC was like sub 80K, right?
Like the last time then the NASDAQ was like trading at these levels,
like March 10th, 11th, 12th, like 13th.
So like, I'm pretty sure it was 77 actually at that time.
Yeah.
Like basically we hit 77 and we whipped sub 80 the last time NASDAQ was,
NASDAQ was at those those levels now we're sitting at
84 right so i think like this whole stock market chop like is driving some marginal flows but i
think like net net probably the flows are still like up also look at the way that etf flows are
responding to like these nasdaq flows like what we saw end of feb and early march was like non-stop
etf outflows like every fucking uh every day you have like 200 million outflow 500 million outflow
300 million outflow like now like you've had up days on the nasdaq you've had down days on the
nasdaq like we basically had two consecutive weeks weeks of every day being inflows into these ETFs.
So I feel like you're getting a good sense of reaccumulation at these levels.
Let me zoom out a little bit too.
Okay, so what's going on from a larger time frame?
Let me make sort of the bull case and the bear case.
So let me start off of the bull case and the bear case. So let me start off with the bull case. I think the bull case here is one, you're like this whole 70 to 80k region, let's just call it 70 to 80, but you can make it whatever you want.
resistance for many months.
So it makes sense logically,
like you're going to have,
in terms of where would someone want to bid,
it would probably be that level
because that level was like
such a key resistance level for so long
that it's like resistance turned support, right?
And that's what we basically saw.
Like anytime BTC went sub 80,
you know, sometimes it went barely sub 80, like 79.9. Sometimes it went
to 76.6 or whatever. But every time it basically got auto snapped up. And so I think that demand
is still probably there. Another bull case, we've been in a downtrend since basically Trump's
inauguration. You know, you've had ETH BTC down 50%.
Like that's ETH BTC.
It's not ETH USD.
Like ETH BTC is down 50%.
A lot of these alts are down a lot, right?
Like Farcoin pulled in minus 90% off its highs.
Sol, like, and you know, Farcoin's not a major,
but let's talk about majors, right?
Like Sol is trading, like it went down minus 60 minus 65 percent off its highs
basically you've had like a down only downtrend and everything's been wrecked across the board
and at some point things are going to bounce right and that's probably going to be when people
lose hope or just want to short the first bounce or whatever and it feels a little bit like we're
seeing that now you know every like when we were sitting at 82 or 84 people were skeptical right
but when we dumped from 108 to 102 or 108 to 104 like people were ready to buy that dip and it's
just like classic classic like market shop price action that I feel like we're witnessing.
What are some other bull cases? ETF outflows have basically stopped. It's been slow inflows,
which doesn't surprise me at all. What else? You've had a lot of people who are like,
Um, you've had a lot of people who are like, again, this, this can change, like if the
Nasdaq goes down another 20% or 10%, but you've probably had a lot of people who are marginally
linked to TradFi and are like, uh, and have high sensitivity to TradFi price action, get
out.
Like that's probably happened as well, which is why
despite the NASDAQ being at equal lows, BTC is significantly higher
low.
What's the bear case? The bear case, I think
there's a couple of them. One is you're probably not going to be able to recapitulate
the same level of mania
as you had in
November, December, January.
Like,
you're not going to get 50,000
altcoins going crazy. You're not going to have
everything across the board
up only. And I think
that's, you know,
reasonable. Like, you're not going to have a mania
on 1,000 alts where everyone wins. And I think that's fine. You're not going to have a mania on a thousand alts where everyone wins.
And I think that's fine.
I don't think that conflicts with a world where Bitcoin goes up and alts just sort of meander.
You can have a strong dead cat in Bitcoin and a less strong dead cat in a lot of these alts.
Very similar to how we saw in the summer of last year.
You had so many big bounces on BTC where alts just underper how we saw in the summer of last year like you had so many big bounces on btc
where alts just underperformed across the board so if that happens again it wouldn't surprise me at
all um i think that there's a couple other bear cases one is you could make an argument that like
well yeah let's do one of them is you can make an argument that hey there's a lot
of trap supply above 90 or above 95 and that supplies you're gonna need time to exit and i
think that's a reasonable case but at some point like you exhaust that sort of upper supply. I don't know if we're there yet. Maybe not, but I could, you know,
I could see a world where you have supply that sells
when we go up, but like eventually that supply dries up,
like, and the floor sort of keeps rising into that supply
until you sort of like, you know,
that supply bottleneck sort of breaks.
Another reason maybe some people can make to be bearish is like, look, you've had insane
negative wealth effects, right?
Imagine you're a fund that held ETH and Sol and BTC.
Your Sol bags are minus 60% in two months.
If you held meme coins, you're like uber-wrecked. If you're in ETH,
you're uber-wrecked. Like, even if you're in BTC, you're, you know, you're basically way less
wrecked if you're in Bitcoin, like you're maybe down 20% or something. But on a lot of these other
majors, you're just super wrecked. So like, there could be these negative wealth effects as well.
And lastly, like, yeah, if TradFi just totally collapses, it's hard to say exactly what TradFi is going to do.
If TradFi just totally collapses, like, yeah, if the Nasdaq is trading at $13,000, you know, probably risk assets get hit.
Though, you know, maybe at that point the Fed steps in or something.
So, the TradFi stuff's a little bit less clear.
I mean, you know, I've seen enough of this, like, what's the word?
I've seen a lot of this.
People, like, when markets are going well, people, like, okay okay what are the signs of a top
you see these fucking tweets of
announcements of announcements like oh my god
big news coming
oh uh huge announcement
coming and then like the announcement's
always a letdown it's like
uh who's that Loomis or
whoever that senator is
like oh I have a big announcement
coming and then people think like
oh it's a trump exec order like it's gonna be huge and then it's like i'm part of a committee
it's like what the hell you know so that's uh that's the type of shit you see at the top
like all these announcements and announcements like you keep seeing these sort of like
uh theoretic like uh on paper sorry on paper bullish headlines
in reality
meaningless or
the market's frothy enough to where it doesn't matter.
certainly
last cycle
and certainly what we're seeing right now is
the moment TrapFight sneezes
at any point and
sentiments flip
people go from like
okay I'm going to trade crypto, fuck it
to like alright it's time to become like a
TradFi guru, right?
Like oh let's listen to
Powell's speech, like what is
Trump doing with the tariffs?
What exceptions does he have to the
tariffs?
And fundamentally like does that tariffs? Like, you know, and fundamentally, like, does that matter?
Maybe. But, you know, last cycle, people, like, I was on these spaces for fucking,
basically, like, three quarters of a year, right? Like, June of 2022 to March of 2023,
Bitcoin sat below 25k. And if you just closed your eyes and hit buy and walked away and came back a year
later at any point you would have been up a lot of money so like and people were just on these
spaces debating like powell powell wants to crash the market well you know ukraine this you know uh
interest rates that whatever like qe qt whatever and like QE, QT, whatever.
And the simple solution of, hey, I'm going to buy this asset because it's cheap, ended up working.
Now, Bitcoin obviously at 20K down 70% off its highs, and Bitcoin at 84.2% down 25% off its highs are two totally different stories.
But just something to consider.
Something to consider is when people's attention shifts,
when people start giving you bullshit news at the top and price isn't moving,
that's probably the top.
And when people start telling you to focus on something that's totally not degenerate crypto speculation, like TradFi or whatever,
that's when you want to start thinking of, hey, maybe market participants are getting a bit more positioned to the bearish side.
But I think that's most of what I had to say.
I'll let up some speakers if anyone wants to hop on.
I'm just going to go through these list of questions first
and try to answer some of them.
Someone said, would it be possible to do an ETF on-chain?
Bitcoin, ETH, and Soule.
Not sure what the purpose of that would be.
If you're on-chain, can't you just get any of the assets?
Like, plus-minus bridging?
Someone said,
What is going on with this bull run?
October 23 to March of 24 was a period of bullishness with Bitcoin and alts going up.
But since then, alts have dropped to 2022 lows, and it seems alts are just dead.
Okay, so I have a good answer to that.
So, first of all, I think one, there's just a shitload of alts, right? And more importantly,
I think the grift and the exit scamming of these alts has just become so much more extreme.
exit scamming of these alts has just become, like, so much more extreme. You know, think about
2017, for example. You had BitConnect. Like, BitConnect put up this charade for, what, it was,
like, at least a year, if I'm not mistaken. Maybe it was, like, a year and a half. I don't remember.
Like, I had heard about it, I feel like, early 2017. And then it collapsed, i want to say december of 2017 so
you have like these long cons right but now like you have shit you had shit like libra pumping
you had shit like trump pumping like total grits and you know politically whether you
you sit one way or the other and like quite, I don't have much of a opinion on
it. Like, like politically, I don't have much of an opinion on how Trump is super great or
Dems are super great. Like, they're in some ways like two sides of the same coin, in my opinion.
Like, but you literally have like a president launching a fucking meme coin and grifting his followers, right, out of however much money they got out.
I don't know how much money they got out.
I know there's all these unlocks coming, too.
You have, like, this Libra thing where they, like, rug pull $100 million, you know, within a couple hours, right?
So you have all these insider games and all these things going on.
And, like, also you have vc you know
unlocks and people exiting and just a much larger breadth so you know yeah a lot of the older alts
like didn't really run as hard right like something like a litecoin is trading lower than it was when
bitcoin was sitting at 24k because i remember back then it was trading at 103 and like coins now at like 87 or whatever
but uh you did you did have mania type behavior in some of these meme coins right like peanut
to 2 billion um all this other shit pumping so thoughts on fix looking like it's going higher
and so risk off again I don't have too strong of an opinion on TradFi. I think when TradFi goes down, it's a good reason for...
So this is my general view on TradFi. I think when TradFi goes... And obviously it's changed
a little bit because of the ETF. So you probably have actually higher correlation now than you did
you know four years ago or whatever it was. But I think when TradFi goes down or TradFi goes up,
it gives people who are on the margins reasons to buy or sell. So we were sitting at range highs
for five days and then TradFi has like a mega nuke date, right? What does that cause? Like it
causes people who are long, marginally long, like to get out. And that's what we've sort of seen. And so, like, I sort of view
these things as sort of like resets. Now, in the past, sometimes you've had these, like, down
TradFi days, and that causes a break in the market. So I think, like, if there's any players
that are over leveraged, and TradFi is down, you could get enough reflexive selling to where, like,
you end up breaking a big player. But that has not happened as much this cycle as it did last cycle with the three ACs and the Lunas and whatnot.
Thoughts on gold?
I mean, I don't know, short term, long term, like, probably keeps going up. You know,
it could stall for like, if you told me gold is trading at 3000, eight years from now,
that wouldn't surprise me. But yeah, we all know that the dollar is going to lose purchasing power.
So gold, you know, gold and all these other hard assets are going to go up.
It's almost the same question as,
what do you think about coffee beans?
That's a bit of a different asset class,
but it's like, yeah, if currencies lose value,
these commodities are eventually going to go up
in nominal prices.
Someone said 2024 was the last basis.
Yeah, that sounds right, to be honest.
Do you think the bull run is over?
People talk about retail not being there yet.
However, the crypto space just became more like a scam with Trump's inauguration and all the stuff that happened and making crypto less attractive to retail.
I think retail did come.
You just had them in the Solana trenches.
I disagree with the fact that
retail wasn't here. I think retail probably was here. I know you're not saying that, Tao. Um,
but yeah, I agree. Like, in some ways, the space became more of, like, a transparent scam,
right? When Trump launches a meme coin, and then 36 hours later, he launches Melania,
When Trump launches a meme coin and then 36 hours later he launches Melania, it's not a good look.
And should the president of the strongest country in the world be launching a meme coin two days before he takes office?
I don't know. My opinion's no.
But that's the nature of this sort of scam slash grift at this point.
What do you think about Sailor trying to raise money in stupid ways to buy Bitcoin?
So if you asked me this before, I would have told you he's not at risk of blowing up for many years.
Like it would have to be a situation where his converts, basically, he ends up having to repay cash on his converts.
And so that strike date is many years from now.
I'm not sure what's going on with these new shares he's issuing,
like STRK and Stripe or whatever the hell he's doing.
I don't know how much that materially increases his business risk,
but that's something I have to look into.
But low time frame, in the next month or two months or a few months,
it's bullish because it's net.
It's more bullish than if he wasn't doing it
because it's net buying that's coming in
and supply being extracted out of the market.
Tariff day, April 2nd.
Buy the news event with BTC and TradFi rallying
with uncertainty behind us,
along with GMIA and MSTR and ETF risk on trade.
Or slow down and fear that drives TradFi lower
and no recovery until May FOMC?
Good question.
I don't know.
My general leaning is up.
So if the market wants to pump on April 2nd,
please go for it.
Again, if you guys have questions,
post them under the spaces.
It's been a while since I ran these.
I don't really like running these spaces at the highs.
Just because...
I don't know.
It's more interesting to run them when the price has come down a bit.
Just because...
Just because there's more of a decision to be made at that point that's what I'm trying to say
so I personally like running these spaces more so at lows when there's fear and uncertainty and
you know people have genuine doubts then like yeah the market's sitting at 88 you know could
I have ran a spaces yesterday and been like hmm you, I think maybe the market can come down.
Yeah, I guess I could have, but just not as interesting, I guess.
And like my midterm view is still that we go up.
So I'm not going to tell someone to sell all their Bitcoin at 87 because, you know, maybe you get a chance to rebuy at 85 or 84,
like we saw today.
So, but yeah, I mean,
if we keep getting more interesting
price action, you know, barring
my personal life stuff that's been going on,
well, I'll try to run more of these spaces for sure.
What do you think of hybrids on Solana?
NFTs backed by meme coins.
Creating unruggable NFTs while locking up tokens.
I haven't looked into the hybrids.
Something for me to look into.
Thank you for mentioning it.
Let's see any other questions
All right, I'll let this guy in Bitcoin if the room back on
I'll let this guy in.
BitcoinEthereum.com
What's up, bro?
What's on your mind?
Yo, Chimp. Do you hear me?
Yeah.
It's me, Turbo.
Turbo AMG.
You maybe know me as Leverage Lover
from BitMEX Strollbox.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And I just wanted to ask,
you already mentioned the meme coin from Trump,
but I wonder about the celebrity coins,
especially from Iggy Azalea,
because this was the only successful one.
And even Arthur Hayes was tweeting about it
after it had his second run to $150 million.
And now it's back at $5 million.
And it's super oversold.
And yeah, what do you think about Mother?
I've never held Mother, so I can't give you like, you know, um, I can't give you a concrete opinion,
but,
if you told me mother went from five mil to 20 mil,
it wouldn't surprise me.
I think it's going to be hard for these memes across the board to pump to
like back to their highs,
just because like the base unit,
the base unit of soul is just lower.
So, um, unit the base unit of soul is just lower so um so i don't have too strong of an opinion like it's not not a buy it's not a buy for you for me personally no but um i think it's just easier to
buy bitcoin here and if you want more exposure you put on some some leverage. Okay and do you did you hear Morocco want to launch its own meme coin
today? I did not hear that. I don't know maybe it's a scam like Libra so we have
to be careful but these things run really quick and parabolic and they can make you really rich overnight if you get in early.
So maybe it's good to keep an eye on this.
And yesterday you saw the coin from Bad Baby was pumping 30% because of her birthday.
Yeah.
But it's like a microcap.
It's a microcap coin.
She is the only second
female celebrity
in the meme coin celebrity space
if we ignore
Melania coin.
And I
still see potential because
they have 16 million followers on Instagram and I still see potential because they
have 16 million followers on
Instagram and
she has 50 million
net worth from her OnlyFans
technically she could reach
1 million again if she wants
so that's
5x from here
but from the big caps I think Solana is also
oversold and will pump back to 150 and Bitcoin is also at a really good spot
right now it I know everyone is fearful but it looks really really bullish if
you ignore all the noise and just focus on the on the buy signal and yeah we
have a we have a high leverage setup right now you could go in with 10x and slowly increase your
leverage after you're in profit and then like the bitmex method you remove the liquidity and put the liquidity back into altcoins and then
maybe you can multiply your gains yeah well that's definitely one one approach to doing it that's
for sure yeah thank you big clinic there for coming on yeah you're welcome all right let me
let me answer a couple more questions here,
and then we'll sort of wrap up.
And by the way, if you guys like the spaces, let me know.
It gives me more reason to try and run them more frequently.
Okay, so over under GME plus Mara plus MSTR market buys
over 5 billion total within April.
So if you're saying within April, probably under, it's pretty hard to get to 5 billion total within April. So if you're saying within April, probably under,
it's pretty hard to get to 5 billion.
Are we seeing short-term rally?
Yeah, I mean, I certainly think we're going to rally in the short term.
Obviously, others disagree.
Thoughts on SoulBTC bleeding further?
You know, I said this at the time,
and I actually caught a really nice Soul short, but I ended up covering it too soon.
I'm going to let Harrison up, but I'm probably going to end these spaces in the next couple minutes here.
I think Sol BTC midterm is probably going to keep bleeding.
It might be a long, drawn-out process, but Sol BTC,c i think is going to go through what happened to
eth in 2017 2018 and in 2021 which is like in both cases you have like this reason to buy people like
all get in on on eth and people all get in on soul it pumps like crazy and then you have like
on the back end you know people like pumped off fun or
whatever that like do you know drain money out of the market just reselling them and sold into
the market slowly uh okay let's see one or two other questions here and then i'm gonna
i'm gonna go uh go to harrison here um any chance bitcoin goes to 78? Yeah, I mean, anything's possible.
I think it's pretty unlikely, but anything's technically possible.
And then ETH gives me LTC vibes from the previous cycle.
Thoughts?
Of overperforming than soul does in like the coming six to 12 months so all right we got
harrison the house harrison what's up brother i'm probably gonna sign off in a sec but uh
any any thoughts you got here?
Yeah.
First, I was just wondering,
what are your Binance whales thinking these days?
Not doing great.
So I wouldn't trust that signal.
I can tell you more about it privately.
Oh, God.
And then what do you think about the open interest?
I think it looks pretty good.
What do you think?
Yeah, I mean, I agree.
I think it looks good.
Open interest has been pretty wrecked across the board.
I saw it was up a bit on Bybit the last few days.
Let me see what it's done today.
Actually, it's up a lot on Bybit.
Now I'm wondering, did a bunch of people get short going into this move?
Because it's up, like, 5,000 units.
Yeah, I mean, I think Open Interest looks fine.
Don't think there's anything, like, bearish about it.
So, Willy Woo actually came out and said on on his subscriber posts that you know we we could be going into a bear market um and i was just like blown away that he said that
uh because he's like a perma fucking bull and you could constrict you could construe it two
different ways you could say um well maybe it's a contrarian signal or you could sayrue it two different ways. You could say, well, maybe it's a contrarian signal
or you could say, oh, well, shit,
like there's a probability
that we could be going into bear market.
Now, my bullish take on that is like,
even if we theoretically are going into a bear market,
we're probably not going to have that much downside.
You know, like what is the worst case in a bear market?
In my opinion, I guess it depends on how bad the financial system gets.
But, like, assuming a mediocre outcome, like maybe the stock market drops another 10% or something like that.
You know, what is Bitcoin going to do?
Go to, like, maybe 65?
You know, 72?
I mean, like, how much lower are you really going to go in a bear market?
It's not like a bear market where we're going to drop 80%, you know, like we're used to.
I don't even think we could drop close to 50%.
So it's like, if it is a bear market, it would be a very unusual time for a bear market to
occur.
We can't rule it out,
but we certainly didn't have the kind of performance that would lead to your 70%
drawdown plus range. So I kind of feel like we're in a good spot, even if we are in a bear market,
because we're not going to lose that much money. But I don't think we're in a bear market. I think
we're just in a protracted consolidation. And how long it takes, I think it's
going to just be a function of how long it takes for the market to digest all the negatives that
Trump is catalyzing here with the tariffs, plus the cutting of government spending and trying to
ship that over to the private sector, which is going to take time. And he's just taking money
out of the economy by cutting spending and by imposing these tariffs. That money that he's just taking money out of the economy by cutting spending and by input imposing these
tariffs like that money that he's raving with the tariffs doesn't just go into the economy
they're not going to start spending it and handing it out like stimulus money it's just sitting there
on a balance sheet somewhere which means less liquidity so i can see a situation where my base case is like we probably
need a few months to just like digest all this negative shit in the stock market and then like
i don't really see a whole lot of short-term upside necessarily for crypto now i will say
what i'm seeing with michael saylor and what he's been able to do holding up his micro strategy price
i have to say it's ultra impressive i mean he got it back from he went all the way down to 240 seeing with michael saylor and what he's been able to do holding up his micro strategy price
i have to say it's ultra impressive i mean he got it back from he went all the way down to 240 back all the way up to 330. which to me was really impressive it shows me there's a real bid there's
a real bid for that stock which has all this risk theoretically right i mean the thing was 120 back
in august people are happily buying it at 300 now i mean it doesn't
seem like you can feel very confident that you're going to retain your value so there's something
going on there fundamentally and i think microstrategy is kind of almost like the the dog
or the the dog kind of guiding the person holding the leash in that example where I think it's going to drag Bitcoin.
Wherever MicroStrategy goes is where Bitcoin's going to end up going.
Some people might think it's the other way around,
but I kind of think it's actually MicroStrategy leads Bitcoin
because that bid that Saylor gets for his convertible bonds,
that really is billions of dollars of money that
goes into bitcoin and so when that dries up because people don't want to speculate on the
call options of the offers with the convertible bonds then theoretically that would be a bearish
catalyst for the bitcoin price because it's just you mean you won't get those guaranteed billions
of inflows and it's all they're already starting to wane to some extent, right? The less that Bitcoin goes up,
the less appetizing owning these call options on MSTR become, the less likely people are going to
want to buy those convertible bonds. But when they go low enough, the MSTR stock price goes low
enough, and you can buy a strike that's low enough compared to where it's been in the recent history,
eventually the buyers step up. And we just saw that on this recent dip. So I haven't think
that we're in a good position. It's just question of like how much pain i was in call options um for
the last like year because i didn't want to own spot uh so i'm getting sued by celsius for like
spot e from btc theoretically and i didn't want to have them speak that often so i was using these
options instead and i've realized at this point
it's not a good time to be in call options
because they're decaying way too fast
and what you want to be long is either spot
you can be long futures
or you can be long like MSTR or derivatives
or if you wanted to play alt obviously you can be long, you know, like MSTR or derivatives.
Or if you wanted to play alts, obviously you can do that.
But I don't know if you touch alts until this point.
I'm just going to be on the spot and sticking with it.
I see our worst case at this point, unless we go into a recession,
I don't see us going below 72 or 70. maybe maybe we whip to like 69 and freak everyone out or something like that that's our worst possible case scenario
so when you just do an asymmetric calculation okay the most i could lose is about 15k out of 85k
and the most i could win is like we could go to 200k next this year so it's a pretty damn good
risk reward you know it's something in the order of like what is that you could lose 20 but you
could make 120 or 140 we'll say seven to one risk reward or something like that i think we should
definitely be long here it kind of reminds me of our conversation we had along these lines.
I'm going to actually buy because I was being like nitty,
thinking the recession was going to hit,
and I was just trying to sell options.
But that was kind of a similar setup to this, I feel like.
Don't have that much downside.
It felt the same right after Trump won the election, when it was like 70 pay.
Like, how much lower are we going to go with him coming into office?
And sure enough, it was just straight out from there.
I didn't expect that, because we flatlined three days after the election.
And then all of a sudden, all the speculative frost got unwound. And people realized oh, shit, there actually is a bit here.
The sellers have already gotten out,
and there's no more selling pressure.
But, yeah.
Anything about all that?
Yeah, I mean, I agree with you.
I think the downside is pretty limited at this point.
So it's kind of an asymmetric setup at this point. Your downside is pretty limited at this point so it's like it's kind of an asymmetric uh it's kind of
an asymmetric setup at this point like your downside is what like like you said maybe 69
maybe so yeah i mean i agree with you i think uh maybe there might not be a catalyst right
this picosecond why we pump but when downsides limited i't know, more often than not, the market finds some reason to pump eventually.
So, yeah, I agree with you.
I was really hoping to start to see more dominoes falling as far as nation-state adoption.
And we're just not getting anything right now.
So that's why you really don't want to be long and paying a huge
funding rate or paying say the decay on options because i just don't know like when the catalysts
are going to arrive but all i know is when they finally do arrive we're probably going to have
an epic move and because it's going to start multiple countries getting on board like all it
would take is one or two big countries coming on
board and we'll probably be at 200k within like a month oh but they won't like that will that
won't happen that quickly i mean it will happen with one country and then another one will probably
happen within two or three months of that and then all of a sudden you'll see a few more showing interests ready to go and at that point we'd be at like
150 160 heading higher and i kind of feel like i'd almost rather be long once that first country
drops like if i'm going to be long options where i have to be right on the timing like let's at
least wait for that first country news to drop and then long right there at least there you have
the reason to pay for like the the right to to or the ability to get leverage on the upside
given that you're speculating on the timing but right now you're kind of just like it feels
degenerate to speculate on the timing of a move up right here because it's to me it feels like
yeah i like short term the more
probability of a bounce than going further down but it's certainly not more than like 60 or 70
probability right it might not even be that close to that it might be 55 probability so but once you
get a country like let's just say china said we're putting bitcoin on our balance sheet we're holding
it as a reserve asset china announced that tomorrow holy shit, Bitcoin would probably
go 100k
overnight
and it would start an epic rally
but I almost feel like
wouldn't you rather just go long there
with the call option
because how do you lose at that point
because now other countries are almost certainly going to go in
yeah
I mean, I think the call option thing, you know, it's trickier because, you know, Bitcoin could pump three days from now, but it could also pump three months from now or six months from now.
So, you know, there's that timing element that just adds more complexity to that sort of trade that you wouldn't normally get.
Yeah, so that applies to being long futures as well but like funding rates are much more affordable than option data decay but it just depends on
how much leverage you're using right yeah if it's let's just say the funding rate is what the
standard rate which is 10 a year but you're long 10x leverage that means you're
paying 100% a year right basically or 90% a year so like that's pretty expensive if you're using
10x leverage with a standard funding rate but um if you if you know hey China just adopted
a bunch of countries are likely going to follow suit.
You know, you can see sovereign wealth funds following suit.
I mean, it's an inevitability.
They're going to do it eventually.
So being long spot just seems like,
how do you lose over a two-year, five-year time horizon?
It seems like such an amazing bet.
I feel embarrassed that I'm not massively long right now,
but my macro guys are just telling me to not be long right now.
Like I'm literally only like 20% in crypto,
whereas I'm normally way more than that.
But it's just because I want to at least let the market figure out,
you know, how much downside does it think,
does it think we need to incur or suffer to price in all the damage that Trump
is doing? Because I really do think Trump's doing good stuff for the long term for the economy,
like onshore manufacturing, forcing these countries to level the playing field with us
on trade. I think these are all good over the long run. Cutting government spending is good
over the long run. Cutting waste in front of these, that's good over the long run cutting government spending is good over the long run cutting waste in front of these that's good over the long run that's awesome along but over the short run it means less gdp
less spending in the economy it's all bearish in the short run and the reality is like i was talking
to my dad last night he was telling me that the time it takes onshore a car manufacturing facility
in the united states is about four years so Trump won't even be president by the time you
start to see the benefit of his onshoring of car manufacturing. So it's like, it seems like for
someone who's really focused on his legacy and all about ego and pomp and all that, you would
think he'd be more focused on short-term results, right? He always seemed like that. But in this case, he's actually taking the short-term pain
for the long-term gain, like deferred gratification.
I'm really impressed that he's even able to do something like that
because he has such a short attention span.
He's not very, you know, he's normally not very disciplined, right?
Yeah, I mean... He just says random shit and is very, you know, he's normally not very disciplined, right? Yeah, I mean...
He just says random shit, and he's very, you know, he's very unrestrained at times with what he does and thinks and says.
I do agree with you that it is, um, what's the word?
It is uncharacteristic of his previous self to be so long-term focused.
of his previous self to be so long-term focused yeah and he seems like he's really sticking with
this shit but in some ways i kind of feel like we got rug pulled because it's like damn dude why
didn't you tell us you were so serious about fucking over the economy with these tears yeah
i wouldn't have been gig along the s&p and the NASDAQ and Bitcoin if I knew you were going to nuke us.
But at this point, I took a big hit on my portfolio, mostly because of the S&P and obviously some options on Bitcoin.
But at this point, I'm just like hunkering down and wait till we have more clarity on at least the the we've like my
macro guy basically thinks like we haven't revised earning estimates properly to account for the
diminishing growth that trump's policies are going to cause um and i can't really disagree with that
i think that's probably right we probably have to go a bit lower we just made like we just basically
made like a double bottom and we're probably going to go lower here on the low we did like a couple weeks ago right so it doesn't
yeah it doesn't look like a good look but what makes me optimistic for crypto is just like
the sentiment in crypto just got absolutely obliterated today and we still made a substantially higher low. We made a low at 83.6 as opposed to 76, right?
Wasn't that below the other day?
Yeah, the relative 76.
So we're $8,000 higher.
Yeah.
We're $8,000 higher when the sentiment was actually even worse today
than it was when we were at 76.
On the shit that I'm looking at.
People were literally panicking today
um they're super worried about the downside which to me is exactly what you want to see
um so i like the setup on a short-term basis quite a bit but if stocks drop another five
six seven eight nine ten percent it's hard to think that Bitcoin's going to hold 87, or what is it,
84K rather. It seems like
we'll probably find a way to droop
back into the high 70s
and then
that will be a pretty damn good buy.
I just want to be long spot like
you and just chill for the
next five years. I think you just
are so likely to double your money
it's not even funny
yeah it just seems like such a low risk trade
uh yeah what do you think about mscr out of curiosity uh not much of an opinion at the moment
uh yeah i'm actually probably gonna end the spaces right now harrison just because i'm like
i'm probably gonna go lay down for a bit. But yeah, happy to chat.
By the way, I'm happy to chat with you sometime privately too.
If we can find a time in the future.
So just as a heads up,
if you just send me a message on Discord.
No thoughts on MSTR.
Yeah, I wish your family member well, by the way.
Oh, thank you. Thank you.
Yeah, no thoughts on MSTR. I'm I wish your family member well, by the way. Oh, thank you. Thank you. Yeah, no thoughts on MSTR.
I'm probably going to wrap it up here.
Yeah, thank you for hopping on, Harrison.
Thanks, everyone else, for hopping on.
I know I haven't ran one of these in ages.
So appreciate everyone for coming.
And if things go well, I'll try to run another one of these sometime soon.
So all right, guys.
Take care. right, guys.
Take care.
