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GENERATING INCOME WITH OPTIONS STRATEGIES!!
Recorded: March 25, 2026 Duration: 4:14:12Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Good morning, Spaces crew. good morning spaces crew happy wednesday everybody another day middle of the week
week's going fast already geez
we are moving uh market looking good this morning going into the close yesterday i was mentioning
you know new york session yesterday was pretty choppy.
But I was mentioning how we were holding into that four-hour gap.
They did want to see us try and build some structure to be able to move higher.
We had a slight move higher into the London high from yesterday.
So that London high that we never tapped uh got tapped into last night into after hours
and um what was the something about ceasefire that had us pop last night uh shit going on with
the war so obviously it's a it's a good thing for the market we like that um where are we at now so
we took out that london high we took out one more previous high from our
monday and now we just have that monday session high resting so if we want to keep displacing to
the upside that's my next spot is that monday high and then uh just above that the the pre-market
high of monday so and that'll be the top of the range.
That'll be pretty much full target in this range, in my opinion.
So we'll see if we keep this momentum to the upside,
break over today's London high and get moving.
Or they want to keep it a little more in this range.
But to me personally, I think i've seen everything i need to see
for us to continue to take out that monday high and further now um i mean past two days we created
that four hour for value we dropped into that four hour for value we've been respecting that
right we built some structure yesterday it was really choppy but we went sideways and really
built some key structure to break above, which we then did, right?
And now we're cruising above that and consistently making higher highs and higher lows from that structure break.
So we'll see if they want to keep that continuing over London High.
I do see a little bit of divergence at this London High from this morning.
It looks like ES wasn't able to take out that London High.
NQ was. And so we have a little bit of divergence there. That looks like it slapped us down to the
bottom of this like five minute, 15 minute range here. So that's what I'm watching going into the
open. Want to see if we maybe make a decision to drop and take out any of these overnight lows first, then try and move higher, or maybe we just try and run it higher right away.
I'm not really in the mindset of looking for shorts.
Of course, I could be persuaded.
Things can change.
I thought the same thing yesterday, and then I came in, and the only play I took was a short.
So we'll see how the morning goes along but as of right now i'm not really
looking to press any shorts unless of course we really just sweep this london high and form a
beautiful setup to get down to these overnight lows i just i don't see the necessity for it
this morning but maybe i'm wrong we'll see what the market wants to decide, but feeling pretty bullish. Four-hour continue to be respected.
Let's bump down to a lower timeframe and see if we're still respecting order flow.
Looks like we are.
Even on a 15, 30-minute, one-hour, every time we've dipped into bullish for value gaps,
we're respecting them, which I know some of you guys might not use that.
That's fine.
But this is just how I'm understanding if bulls are in control or bears are in control.
And right now, bulls look like they are still in control in the bigger time frame and smaller time frame here.
So see if that changes.
See if it stays the same.
Either way, it's another great day.
Another great day in the markets.
So yeah, NQ's up a percent.
Yes, up a percent.
RTY up 1.2.
Gold is up 3.6%.
That's been ripping.
Goldilocks.
Some very nice moves there.
Let's see, we're taking out Monday's high right now on gold.
We'll see if we can try and push towards Friday's high.
That's what I would look for.
If we're going to continue displacement over Monday's high,
next big spot in the bigger time frame is Friday's high for me.
Silver also up 5.35%.
Nice moves there.
What is this?
I drew an order block on silver.
Only God knows when I did that.
I really don't even remember when I did that.
But it was at 66.51.
We came down to that and held it pretty well.
Crude oil is down 4.9 to be expected with the market looking as good as it is
we'll see if that tries to get any bounces on this bigger time frame today
looks like i mean monday was a nice move down on oil yesterday was choppy today we're opening up
not really doing much so see if they want to respect this range or not.
Get Will in here. Sniper in here.
Good morning, boys. Happy Wednesday.
What's up, what's up?
Really nice bounce last night.
Yes, I was long.
I'm liking the hold.
We got over session highs from yesterday, and we're holding that pretty well.
Wondering to see if we can keep this momentum going into some of these previous highs,
like 600, 700s on NQ.
But yeah, looking good this morning.
Syph, how are we doing?
I'm all right. I can't complain. How about you? Doing yeah, looking good this morning. Cypher, how are we doing? I'm alright. I can't complain.
How about you? Doing good, man. Same, same, same.
Can't complain. Waking up another beautiful day in paradise.
We're healthy. We're happy.
Exactly. That's what's important, man. What the hell is there to complain about, right?
There's a lot of people doing a lot worse than that right now a lot exactly we're blessed um I have gotten long I'm kind of just telling one
of my automation strategies at the moment I'm'm long just two micros
off 430. I'm looking for this
531.
I'll stop out if we run one and low.
That'll get me out of this.
Automation.
Other than that, I'm looking to get long
with all my other accounts.
Into the open.
Hopefully some pullbacks
we can get into something um you know or i'm wrong and they
just take out the high freaking set up short and it's like yesterday where i thought i was
gonna play long and i played short i don't know you know let the market decide but
you've got to be prepared for both i was short oil overnight i was long um both ES and NQ.
I took the NQs at 510.
I think I took those off.
I was long from 390-something, I think.
So it was like 100-something points.
But I saw this.
I mean, this headline earlier is that Iran will not accept ceasefire
or enter into this process with a party that has violated its agreements.
So I think that was about, that was at 7.15 Central Time, so 8.15 Eastern.
Then there was a follow-up that says, Iran says the U.S. has stepped up efforts to secure a ceasefire,
but that was the only headline.
But it says, truce and talks not viable in current conditions
according to iran so um again it's just like one side says this the other side says this it's
oh wait i just don't know like i when i saw that i took my trades i took my longs off just that i
was like you know what i'm up overnight It was just a little swing trade anyways.
I'm going to wait and see kind of what happens.
Yeah.
So I think cautiously optimistic is the right.
But I think so here.
I said this last night.
We're on Stocks on Spaces.
It's like I think we're past peak fear at this point.
Unless this negotiation completely falls apart,
and all of a sudden we're back to Trump saying
that they're going to hit them with everything they got,
and they're going to take out their energy facilities
and just ratchet up the rhetoric.
I guess, are we past the peak fear or peak oil?
I mean, what's the VIX telling you?
The VIX has not made new highs, right?
Look at the VIX.
The VIX high was on Monday, March 9th,
and we have not made a new high.
We attempted on Monday.
We went all the way up to, what, 31, I think it was?
And we're sitting right on the daily nine.
And I would imagine that's going to lose that today with the market being up.
So I'm...
I think at least past this point, I think you got to be –
I think you got to be leaning to the long side at least for now.
Yeah, we'll see.
As long as oil stays, I would say oil under 90 and bonds,
these yields kind of stay a little bit to the downside.
I mean, we had the 30-year creeping up towards 5%.
We backed off about 12, 13 basis points.
And then the two-year as well has come down a little bit from that 4%, about 15.
So as long as we get yields that are calm and oil that's sub-90,
I think you're okay for now.
Yeah.
Just keep oil down.
Going into open, tapping into a 15-minute gap.
Bulls need to run through this.
494.
Yeah, just like look at gold today.
Back up, you said it's silver.
Silver up 5%.
I think that's a good sign.
And that's just
yields coming off and the dollar
probably fading,
which it has faded that 100 level.
I'd say, I think I said this
on Friday
maybe, or maybe it was Monday,
but I just noticed the dollar never made new
highs into that 100
level while rates were making new highs.
Bonds are making new lows, but the dollar was not.
So I was just wondering, is that a sign that maybe we're past the peak fear?
Like why are they not chasing the dollar higher if rates are going higher?
And then we get obviously this commentary this week and soften it up.
obviously this commentary this week and soften it up so
we also have no data today no i don't oh we did have import prices that were a little hot
up 1.3 versus 0.6 i think that was the hottest number since uh numbers since last year at this time.
So, import prices were elevated, and that was before we got these oil that's obviously
run significantly higher.
So, I'd expect those import prices to probably continue to climb into the next couple months.
But that's a,
I wouldn't say that's market moving data,
really.
But it's a great day for some good trades
and it's time for us to get in there
and make some money.
Mortgage applications,
they did release those to no surprise
with rates screaming higher.
Negative 10.5% week over week and as you
guessed it the refi index minus 14 percent as the 30-year mortgage ran all the way up to 6.43 percent
as the average so mortgages back in the mid sixes is not conductive for the housing names. However, I do think that
if we are past, I think this is a trade idea. If we're past peak oil and maybe past peak interest
rates for now, if this calms down and yields do come in a little bit. I think the XHB may catch a bid on softer yields.
So that's something I'm looking at.
And if you look at the chart of XHB, which is the homebuilders ETF,
it had a nice, basically I'd call it double bottom,
look below and fail right at that 98.60 level.
So I think that may be a potential trade back to the upside if the ceasefire looks
like it's for sure and going to continue and then i think that uh that actually looks pretty decent
could be a bounce play to the upside on softer rate softer, and oil going lower.
I'll be garlic.
I might actually put that in the Discord.
Mercado Libre said it will invest $10.9 billion in Brazil in 2026,
marking about a 50% increase from last year. I'm just just gotta be pumped for that oh yeah stoking sndk is investing one billion dollars in nanya technology
in connection with a multi-year supply arrangement i love how we all just start associating stocks
with their friends you know we all think about imp right away when we hear mercato libra news yeah like america and walmart that's up 100 any defense name that's you
sniper oh i'm just all of them yeah of course like uh every every time i hear lock i instantly
think of you okay yeah that's appropriate um I don't know what that would be.
I guess Inc. 2 or Tesla or something. I don't know.
I have no idea.
I'm thinking about that.
Let me get back to you there.
You're good.
You're good.
Trump plans to name an initial batch
of 13 members from the industry, including
Jensen Wan, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison, David Sachs.
When is that happening?
Oh, they're going to weigh in on AI policy and other issues.
Okay, I got it.
What we got? Celsius.elsius oh the big celsius gosh that was such a
fun stock and for some reason tsll yeah definitely
should agree like not regular tesla 2X Tesla. Yeah, give me that 2X.
All right, Mr. Market.
We got about 10 minutes till open, folks.
If you guys haven't liked the stream, reposted the spaces,
maybe through a little comment in the comment section,
take a few seconds and do that real quick. Share this out with as many people as possible.
Let's have a great Wednesday.
Hopefully not getting
the same range we got yesterday. That was
brutal, but
that's this market right now.
Until we
wake up and shit's really changed.
Yeah, like are we, you know,
to your point, like we've rallied overnight.
Where are we? I mean, if you
just look at es from uh
monday's range yeah yeah guess where we're sitting at right now 66 61 anybody want to guess it on
the es continuous futures contract you're right that is the 200 period no of course so just Of course. Just stuffed. Just stuffed it.
You know, if you look at the,
if you just look at the June contract only,
we're obviously right against the daily nine,
the futures, which is a little higher,
about 12, 13 points at 74.
And that 200 period on the June contract is all the way up at 67, 68.
So, I mean, here's the constructive side.
I think you have a swing low.
We went and tested on ES 65, 25. We probed below it all the way to 6480.
We got acceptance back up above it.
Now you've put two higher lows more recently.
I think your next catalyst is probably in this range right now
until we get more confirmation from maybe the Iranian side
or some more rhetoric out of the U.S.
that is constructive.
But I would say your downside level right now
would be, what is that, Monday's low?
I think it was.
Probably the overnight low.
So I would think that 65-25 area,
if we're going to end up being lower we need to we need to lose all this and go back there until then i think we go either sideways
to probably higher would be my consensus and that's more of a maybe couple weeks out picture
a month out whatever it is yeah because like, again, we would have to have more fear
come into the market.
Could we get that?
Of course we could.
I mean, sure, we could get a headline that says,
Trump's, I don't agree to anything.
They're agreeing to nothing.
They're being difficult.
We're going to go in there and bomb them even harder.
If that comes out, then where are we going?
We're going back lower.
But as long as the tone is relatively muted,
I think you'll be all right for now.
For now.
What we have. got any individuals going that circles up 5% from its 20% decline yesterday
yeah that was wild nothing got absolutely murdered this stock is just insane
ripped straight up the past few weeks.
No pullback to then pull back.
20, what is that?
Oh, that was 28% from the high.
Yeah, I don't know what the hell is going on there.
I wouldn't touch that.
I wouldn't go anywhere near it, but it's fun to watch.
Not interested. Yeah. I don't know how you near it, but it's fun to watch. Not interested.
Yeah.
I don't know how you trade that, but definitely not my strength.
Much volatility for me.
Yeah.
Hood's up 3.2, 3.7.
Tesla's trying to hold on.
Tesla's trying to hold on.
That's not a good spot.
Tesla's in the gap here.
Got over half gap.
Might look for that gap fill in to open here.
Very nice.
Very nice.
The memory stocks are getting shot on.
How are we doing, Natswell?
I'm good.
I'm good. You see, Santis has news. they're down six percent damn yeah
yeah I mean, these memory names have been just absolutely insane
this last 12 months in general.
How far do they run?
The only one I have interest in is MU with those earnings.
Those earnings are great. All right, three minutes till open.
Reminder, no data this morning.
Looks like we just have like crude oil inventories at 1030,
which obviously affects oil more than the market but things have
been sensitive to oil so maybe keep an eye on that Good morning, guys.
Good morning, Frank.
We're open right in the middle.
Right in the middle.
Not a place to mess around.
Some crazy moves, though, at 8 o'clock this morning.
80-30.
Yeah.
They sold it from that overnight high there.
It dropped like 150 points.
We're kind of just retesting that high we broke over, though,
from what was that, middle of the night.
I think a big piece of that move was just that headline that hit,
and I think everybody kind of jumped on that.
Yeah, and oil spiked on that.
An oil spike right along.
I have oil right up next to NQ.
It's like pretty symbiotic.
They've been trading in like lockstep basically. good morning spaces crew good morning morning man good morning kc good morning fellas not a day another day where some really good moves happened overnight.
No, dude.
And now what do you do?
Yeah, right.
I think it's position management for me, at least on the option side.
for me at least on the option side what the heck this is uh you have to you kind of have
What the heck?
to take profits because it's just you know it opens and you know fades yep
i have some i have a pretty sizable bowing position but like
i gotta sell half of it when it opens just because i'm gonna take profits
i saw maves try and join but i think it's a glitch and markets open oh there we go
a little pop so to tell you what the banks have definitely recovered
from that uh that weekly trend line there around 49, 48.80 to 49.
I'm pressing right to Monday's highs.
Yes, ripping.
Or two wide.
I'm looking all right.
Are there any hourly gaps?
Let's open up. Robinhood's up 6%. $1.5 billion buyback approval.
Just hit today.
Bro, why is Space just nerfing MapleStacks this morning?
Good morning.
Good morning.
Hey, Paper.
Good morning.
What a wild ride last night, eh?
Jordan, if it's any help, I have not seen MapleStacks thus far.
Interesting. Okay. Yeah, it's any hope, I have not seen MapleStacks this far. Interesting.
Okay.
Yeah, it's giving me issues with him.
All goody, all goody.
When are they going to give Hoodie some credit for this buyback?
73 and a quarter on the Hoodie post-buyback announcement.
That's interesting.
Hoodie.
Hoodie.
Why is Semmy's index coming down? Post buyback announcement. That's interesting. Woody. Woody.
Why is Semis index coming down?
Who's tanking?
Everything just ran right into Monday's high.
Yeah.
Oh, Sandus down seven.
Yeah, so Sandus down seven.
WDC down six.
STX down five and you micron down five
there it is there we go we got you made sorry it was glitching bro no yeah you're good yeah it was glitching on my end too you're good maple steaks she's over here stacking up pancakes gold at uh
london or high here 568 i'm trying to focus on lower time frame cbc for scouts
but i do like this resistance short look there's a little hack on gold um maves if you don't know
there's a ticker that you probably haven't heard of called gvz which is the gold vaults yeah g
victor zebra it's gold volatility i didn't know that yeah yeah so
the way gold works is very different than normal but like when they have heavy upside expectations
and bets uh that actually goes up so like as opposed to spy when when vix goes up when they're
going down gvz goes up when it's gonna go up there's also one for for oil as well which is ovx which
is the volatility of oil does it does it work the same i mean gvz is a pretty reliable indicator
in terms of like it goes up when when gold's gonna go up yeah i mean it's the same same concept
obviously oil to the upside is going to move the obx index which is this crude oil volatility uh testy 395 upside targets here hit 200 day and 20 day sma overhead resistance very
tight spy opening range right up here on this.
You got a little overextended tick.
Pre-market high test on Spy.
Q's a lot weaker than Spy out of the gate.
Financials are right just at those Monday highs sitting XLF.
Oh, yeah.
That's not going to sustain.
1,400, 1,500 positive tick out of the gate on Spooze.
It's a little hot.
It's a lot.
Right to that Monday high as well.
I just stuffed it.
Casey, that video of, I think that,
I don't know if that's your indicator or not,
but that was just a beautiful top tick yesterday.
That video looks so sexy.
Oh, on the MQ?
Yeah, yeah.
And then you just cut to all the gains from everybody else.
Love that.
Yeah, that was fun.
I just did that for a little scalp.
I wasn't expecting it to run all the way back down.
Is that your indicator, right?
Yeah.
Or is that a different one?
No, that's one of the ones that I made.
Yeah.
And then the bottom level, I posted one last night.
I was like, after our top ticket came all the way down, like 150 points,
it back-tested 320, and that was the spot for support.
And I was like, it bounced like 15 20 points and i sent
a tweet out and i'm with the screenshot i was like is this going to be bottom lo and behold 200
points off the freaking low i was like oh my god i need to start like trading overnight and stop
trading the new york session in the morning you make so much more money after hours right now
Work session in the morning, you make so much more money after hours right now.
AMD Nvidia popping.
A and Dizzle is on a tear.
AMD runner 220 to 530. Let's go go anyone still has those call swings they are moving
spoo's about to hit the uh 200 day for working yeah it's looking stronger
the 200 days right over your head right here. Morning,
everyone.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Five point gain gold covered half.
And we get through it.
Thank you. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Amazon. Well, the long from pre-market
is cooking now.
They're getting squeezy.
It's going to take me out at 5.30.
That's TB.
Oh, there it was.
There it was.
Wait, was that it?
Wait, was that it?
Statistically, you should come back down and touch previous session.
Hi, you're in the New York session here.
Palantir heavy squeeze.
162s
the goob squeeze
hoodie is a hot squeeze
Jesus Christ
but that's extended
a lot of this extended
taking out London High
did you guys see the
Palantir andruil news
headline
yeah so Palantir andAnduril news headline?
Yeah, so Palantir and Anduril is supposed to be developing the software layer on the Golden Dome project.
I don't really think that this is going to take effect for another three to six months, but that is one of the more exciting contracts to win in today's day.
What the hell did Arm do?
Holy.
They had some update.
They updated their guidance to like 5x their revenue,
25 billion or something.
BMNR up 5% hot.
They still have a fanny pack.
They launched a Maven.
It's some staking platform, I guess.
Apparently it's the largest one that's ever been assembled
okay i got a call spread up there.
Looking for some resistance up here.
I'm sure ES a little bit as well at 80 looking for some resistance up here.
For a little scalpy.
Alright, there we go. I'm going to trim out.
There we go.
SPX is the exact high as a 200.
Yay, close.
Spy was like a couple pennies short, spx touched it 66 30. watch that scene Sam, you make a bullish abandon, baby.
And it's already up $14 from the open there.
Already daily candles green now.
The goog's failing.
The video's somewhat strong.
Oil's holding it down.
I can't, my fucking corny is 150 again.
Jesus Christ.
Yeah, jail dubs.
Oil just needs to keep dropping.
It's okay, gross. so Almost at Monday's high on ES.
What is this?
Quarterly low.
I'm like 50% on the Amazon ads here.
Tesla 390 is on deck at a buck and a quarter.
I'll look for another setup higher potentially.
I want to keep running over this London high, but I was long into open, so.
Nice.
A 430 scalp.
Tessie holding.
She's kind of holding.
She's somewhat holding Apple on the level.
Point 150.
Fuck.
Google is still not strong.
I mean, it had a nice bounce, but it's not the business. Microsoft's getting punished.
Is it?
Apple's trying to
move it down as well.
There's that resistance
holding London Orb High on the flop.
Jesus, Microsoft, you're not fucking around, dude.
If you're short EFs, I'd look at maybe like 10-minute EMAs, VWAP, 661.
I just covered eight points, EFs.
It's a short.
Let's go.
The whole market was pushing, and Microsoft's under pre-market low.
Apple just ran into yesterday's high and got slapped.
And he trimmed this Amazon short.
I don't know.
I do like AMD, though.
How about that?
It's going to be a good pick for the AMDG pick of the week.
All right, I'm going to take my first trim on the spy puts here.
I'm going to move a stop to entry on the ES
Okay
Call spreads you doing well
Coming in zero take care
You know we got a five-minute gap
Tassi all Alright, I'm out
majority of ES here.
Almost 15 points.
Let's go KC.
Let's go.
Oh, we shorted the high of day, baby.
Oh, I'm gonna trim some more spot puts
here. Coming to 390 on the contracts.
What a rejection.
What a rejection. What a rejection.90 on the contracts. What a rejection.
All right.
If you're in profit, please trail your stop.
There's 661s coming in to play here on ES.
I really recommend for the listeners, you guys mark your London orb.
I know that they haven't changed time over there yet But that's from 4am to 4.30
And you can see clear resistance at 681
Pushing it down to the support
I'm thinking about a Googs 290
But I feel like I'm chasing
These are cheap zero days
It's a little wicky down here
two things real quick I gotta run out the door
the London time
change Maple is this weekend
so just if anybody's watching that
be careful
next week it'll go back to 3 to 3.30
correct
Pakistan officials just came out and said
there is no confirmed date or venue for the possible U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad.
Iran has not agreed to talks yet. Current headline.
Just last week.
How come Google can't get it bounce?
Make it bounce.
I need an entry.
Don't be a bit.
Invita, just over the 200, coming back in here in a second.
Or at least retesting tvd tvd
opening print retests on spuse
all my amazon's gonna try to bounce
Still over the 20.
All right, just about 20 points there on ES.
I closed all the futures short there to lock that in.
I got to stop at entry on the rest of Spy.
Looking for a new low update underneath this midpoint line.
Just work our way down.
Wow, VCX is now $500.
Dude.
There's another one.
There's one that's an S.
Starts with an S, I think, that has
literally just the good stuff in there.
I don't know if VCX is only the good stuff.
I think the S one...
What is it?
S...
T? STK. stuff. I think the S1... What is it? S...
STK.
STK has all
the same, like, the good stuff, and I think
it's Canadian. Yeah, it's on the TSX.
No, it's squeezing it.
Out majority of spot puts here at 400.
There's VWAP break.
Gold.
I have a micro pivot there.
550.
Trail stop should be in profit.
661 target and VWAP hit on ES.
Coming into London Orb support. Oh my God. So it's hard to be super bearish down here um i would maybe look at lower time frame ema interactions
i'd take that baby ass bounce on the dudes to short.
And lots of and stuff.
Apple.
Breaking down.
I'm looking to close my call spread.
I already have 60% here.
Runners only spy. . is tsn rocket lab moving hard
boom boom boom baby cover the shorts have a great rest of your day
hey c damn we got from the tippity top, man.
It's just been a week.
And it's only Wednesday.
What's going on?
Dude, it's been a week.
It's about to be a great weekend.
Look, lower low.
There it is.
Beautiful.
20-point gain.
Scaling trail, guys.
Apple just went off my screen.
Tessie coming in.
Free market levels here.
Below the 220.
Whoa, accelerating.
Drainage.
All right, guys.
That's it for me for the rest of 2026.
I've got a greatest of the year.
All right.
See you later, Hammer.
Oh, my God.
$100 per contract gain.
Let's fucking go.
Prior day high retest on Spooz and Laqueous.
Negative tick.
Careful.
I am all out of my spy puts. No more runners.
Damn.
They didn't give me any of my entry. I closed the ES for about 20 points and then focused on the spy puts,
but from the top, that's almost 40 there on ES.
If you go to ES, just previous day high area was around that 80.
If you go to ES, just previous to a high area was around that 80.
And then the 940 candle confirmed.
Evening star reversal.
Five-minute chart across the board on SPY and ES.
Nine times out of ten.
Next candle downside.
That's what we got, baby.
I mean, Tessie.
Trimming, Tessie.
GLW gave it all back.
Up seven, down seven.
What a wild one.
Lowing doesn't look bad, actually.
He wanted along somewhere.
I think Frankie actually
picked up some options on that.
Loaded with BA.
Loaded.
Yes.
I actually just made my first trim.
Very nice.
I just remembered yesterday.
As we speak. SpaceX's IPO could come at some point, or filing could come at some point this week.
Sorry, not the actual IPO, just the prospectus and the filing.
So, question.
When that actually IPOs, is that going to be like the short of the year?
Are you asking me?
I'm just in general.
I have no idea how to price it, honestly, but it depends really where its valuation is at.
I've seen some pretty crazy numbers thrown out there.
It's insane.
Yeah, I don't know if they're going to go for the $1.5 trillion IPO
because of that reason right there.
I could see them going a little lower and getting bid up, maybe,
if they were on the lower side.
But again, I really don't know how to price it.
It depends really.
But I mean, they have a lot of good things going on,
but I don't know exactly how much that's all worth.
I will say though, I think that Rocket Labs,
AST Space Mobile will be some pretty nice beneficiaries
of that IPO.
Yeah.
Agreed.
Even after,
like, there was like a billion dollar
Rocket Lab raise,
my buddy Matty covers them pretty heavily.
He's like,
I think they're going to buy somebody.
I don't know if that's good or not but
it's what he's thinking you know that's a good point paper and like raises aren't necessarily
bullish or bearish and i feel like it's up to each of us to interpret it our own way um it depends
what they're doing with a billion dollars you know just because they need a billion dollars, it's not bearish.
Slightly negative tech is still fighting.
If you get a flush, that'll probably be a little liquidity grab, and maybe we get a bounce after that.
Or it could be now, who knows.
If it's now, though, it's probably short.
. Amazon is exceptionally strong here.
What's that?
We cannot enter that alone. I'm not intraday low.
He's been fighting for 595.
The gooks.
Dude, the bounces on gooks today are, like, pretty lame.
I'm wondering if we set up a little bit of a lung down here.
It's possible.
I'm watching for it.
I mean, if I get a trigger, I will slap it.
I feel like Q's over Spooze for that right now.
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, yeah.
He goes, yeah.
I always find myself on the deck.
Did you guys see the relax rows on United Airlines?
Yeah, pretty baller.
I had a lot of people reach out to me,
like personal friends in the last 24 hours
asking me how that's going to work.
I'm not sure, but there's going to be
a lot of buzz and excitement on these.
Oh, yeah.
Microsoft 373 and dropping.
Bro, I feel like I could have just been shorting that, like, forever.
And we would have just gotten paid.
The fuck?
Maybe we do it to Google from here.
Yeah.
Not. I. Not.
Uh-oh.
Losing Jordy.
Uh-oh.
Jordy, you're cutting the connection.
Starlink's not doing it.
Apple, little slight breakdown here.
Same with Goobs.
Tessie holding.
Ish.
Amazon holding mostly.
Of course, the one I shorted first. whoa no they're getting rid of my Sora app oh yeah she gone no wait what it's gone is it just
deleted from my phone no I have it she it. She gone, yeah, she gone.
They're going to figure out a way to get you your data,
but she gone.
We're saying goodbye to the Sora app.
What you made with Sora mattered,
and we know this news is disappointing.
Why did they get rid of it?
I don't know.
Because so many fucking tokens, dude.
There's way more important things to do with fucking all that fucking GPU shit.
True.
Agreed.
There's cranking content on that app, though.
Damn.
I can't even imagine the compute that app needed.
Oh, it's gotta be so much app needed. Oh, it's got to be so much.
Right?
Yeah, it's ridiculous.
I can't even imagine what's even crazier is the ROI that app probably actually gave them.
Yeah.
Brand awareness.
Google Neelos.
Well, Sora, rest in peace.
Rip.
I'm actually... I said that said that yesterday Google I did not like
yeah
I think that's a break
no I like completely
agreed with you fucking even posted
some shit and then my in our private
group I put out
three minute CBC I put out like a full
one to one delta hedge
against equity
so you don't have to sell.
Google went this morning.
It went right to that prior low from December.
I honestly have it up to like 306 that I could get to,
but even then it's like there's too much damage here.
Another rejection.
The 200-day S&P just slapped it
yeah
BCX is now up
$231 today at
$550
Jesus fucking Christ
somebody short that for me would you
you can't no shares
a lot of people are going to get hurt from that
I mean a lot of people made money but a lot of people are going to get hurt from that. I mean, a lot of people made money, but a lot of people are going to get hurt.
I mean, the trade's over.
If, you know, what valuation is VCX implying SpaceX at right now?
You can do that.
Ask Claude or something.
1.5 trillion or something, whatever it is.
No, I think it's higher at this point.
If he's saying it's up another 100% or 200%, that's like 3 trillion.
Here we go.
Tessie, wow, coming in hot.
Yeah, they're slapping everything.
Tessie hit the $2. Gold ladder, number half.
Oh, man.
My God.
What a freaking dump.
It's a big dump.
Yes.
Yes.
Wow, good 290 puts, about 200%.
Wow, good 290 puts, about 200%.
God, ES just hit 30.
Paper hands.
Free market lows on this boost.
Reach on the Qs.
That is a negative 5 tick.
Impressive selling. Everything went to the 200 and they just chucked it
Chucked it I'm just looking I'm going through the sectors that I got up
I mean tech if you look at XLK it's just back into last couple days highs
Which makes sense. We're kind of right there going new high 200 financials don't
look terrible discretionary obviously big gap oh frankie leboing is like rippy rippy
industrials trail stop hit break even on the ladder gold still have initial position
oh fuck i didn't get the fucking trim up on fucking i hate to say it. I almost want to long it. Dude, I'm still looking for the long.
I'm not there yet.
I need a trigger.
Well, you got yesterday's high.
I am a little bit
I love Boeing.
I wish I got the short.
I love Boeing. I bo i love boing
i don't trade it a lot it's hard to get on the right side of boeing but once you are
such a piece of i've never had much luck with boeing i think the word is turned
you guys prefer boeing or airbus? Boeing. Vine.
I mean, Airbus, I don't even know.
It's hard to get.
I'm going to close the Googles.
I have a flyer on Embraer.
I like whatever keeps me alive.
All right, I covered.
Or I sold something there.
Sorry, I'm going to stop at entry.
Everybody wants Embraer Jets now.
They have a pretty big backlog now, out of nowhere.
MGC short, ladder, 10-minute green, green high risk small size.
Mita sub 596 that's the pivot.
Napes is all in trade in the gold futures now. I'm the only one that gets to trade meta. That's cool.
Meta back under six. They don't like Google at all.
All right, out majority here of the long stop and profit.
Oh, that's fast.
I need this internal.
Break even.
Amitya coming in and retest to 200.
Ah, they're going to stop me on Tessie.
Now break even.
And I'm all out of the long.
GGs.
50 fucking points.
Insane. 50, 50. 50. 50 soon. 50 fucking points insane 30 30 30 30 soon
uh you had cues
the 587 area from the last like two sessions we were talking about just over extension support down there spy
uh had a zone that started around 655 60. it got close enough
what i have a level on nvidia for 179 50. what is that
What is that?
I don't need that.
Dude.
What is that even from?
Oh, I don't need that shit.
They're really about to tag me out at break-even.
Oh my god.
Don't do it.
Frankie, boing, boop boop.
Reverse.
Boop boop. Boop boop.
Hold that.
Me too holding 596. That is a pivot. P the holding 596.
That is a pivot.
Pivot.
Pivot.
Do not give me a break even on this.
Still zero take.
Yes.
My fucking TP.
Damn it.
I'm trading angry right now for some reason. Stop that.
T-I-C-K.
Oops.
Oh, thank you.
Needed that.
You are welcome
Freaking NASDAQ, man
Nasty NAS
Nasty NAS, man
It's been nasty NAS
It's been really pissing me off
With this price action
I'm finding
Finding some spots
I'm not touching this
the rest of the day.
Look at Slaple.
I like that name. It's a good name.
NVIDIA at the 2 again.
Why aren't my executions on?
Sir?
Need to let them know
that we fucking actually hit it.
Come on.
Amazón.
Nah, it's getting a little bit heavier.
Amazón. I'm watching Boeing too closely.
I trimmed out some and I put a stop in just above breakeven, which is much lower.
Just throw a scanner alert for news or
something i'm going to try to uh yeah it's i got april 15th so i got some time and oh you don't
have for time frankie just buy the stock just buy the stock yeah i know oh here we go
iran rejects u.S. proposal.
They set five conditions for the war to end.
Which are, leave me alone, leave here in general,
and let me do what the fuck I want? Or what?
Yeah, exactly.
And pay me. And pay me for the damage.
Oh, shit. I didn't see that one in the headlines.
No, that was in their initial
i'm no longer long but if you run through 442 75 i think this could pick up more otherwise
that's going to be the spot to slap right now iran has rejected the u.s proposal again the
ongoing war insisting any resolution will follow toran's own terms and timeline. Okay.
All right.
Was that last night?
How's that going to work?
That's just in the last,
that is one minute ago.
Let's go, MAPES.
Iran calls for solid assurances to avoid future wars.
They're going to come out
a little bit at a time.
I think I need a trimmed Amazon.
Just give me the failure.
One time.
Low through the 20.
Lose the 20.
I'm a happy camper.
Googs, Friday low.
Do I roll? Do I roll Google? I had 288.
Yeah, video's resilient as shit.
AMD 218, look at that.
Dude, what...
Well, what if Google is the next Microsoft?
Right here, right now?
It moves so fast.
This one would fall, like, with some massive velocity.
I think it's on your Condor time.
I sold April 670, 680 call credit spreads yesterday.
Monthlies.
I was looking at selling some 630, 620 put credit spreads for April also.
I was getting like for $10 wide, I already got like $5 for the upside.
If we pull any lower, I could get probably another $5 or more for the downside and have a zero risk trade.
That would be fucking nasty.
Yeah, that's the way to do it.
I did.
I sold an ES yesterday.
And was on opening range low.
I sold the 5,000 puts out to
30 days.
Nice.
Oil a little rippy here.
6,300
put spread two weeks out.
Pull the plug on this. Pull it.
Oh, fucking oil.
USO 110.
Pull it.
111.
Pull the pin. 89 on crude. Pull it. 111. Pull the pin.
89 on crude.
Good night.
Ah, shit.
I've got to stop the profit.
Go back in shortly.
We're slightly positive tick here.
Careful on the short.
If we...
Oil stays under nine.
Now, if we run through this 442,
I think this gets a lot more rupee.
But we're still rejecting it right now.
I'm all out along now.
I'm not even holding it anymore, so...
I just took a 1-to-one on that.
But if this runs over 442, it could have been a way better trade.
MD hiding.
Tessie, I'm going to close this here.
It doesn't reject right now.
Skeet, G plus four, 500 tick. It doesn't reject right now. Skeechy.
Plus four, 500 tick.
Let's see.
You get up to opening
range lows on
Speedy's.
I guess I could have held that long a little bit longer.
Oh my gosh.
Me too.
Dude, just from the high to the low, from zone to zone.
I didn't screw around with this 20 to 40 spot on NQ,
but it looks like we're trying to get over it.
Can they?
Yeah, I don't know.
That's probably high take.
That was 100 points from the entry.
Oh, my freaking goodness gracious.
All right, this is a back test of your midpoint line on QQQ.
Do you have a little bit of an overextended tick as well,
back testing your intro to EMAs? Could get a little bit of an overextended tick as well backtesting your intro to EMAs.
Could get a little short-scalpy.
Right.
This just came out.
This is their five conditions.
A full halt to aggression and assassinations by the enemy.
Oh, God.
Assassinations.
Concrete guarantees that war will not be imposed on Iran again.
Guaranteed and clearly defined war reparations.
An end to the war across all fronts, including for all resistance groups in the region.
So all their little minions that they support, they want to stop.
International recognition guarantees of Iran's sovereign authority over the Strait of Homoos never is going to happen.
All right, it's going to keep going.
That should sell it off.
Guess how much the payments would be worth?
Two million a ship.
They're asking, I mean, again, it's not, they didn't ask for a clear cut number, but estimation for loss of revenue included, they're going to ask for a trillion dollars.
Yeah.
AMD new high 219.
Tessie Holden free markets.
Reviews weak bounce.
Amazon tag the 20 weak bounce. Amazon tagged to 20.
Small bounce.
Apple going to try and reclaim free markets.
That could be an upside trade-ish, maybe.
I like Apple over the rest of the MagFedans right now.
I like Apple over the rest of the MagFevins right now.
Jordy said he's really looking forward to the foldable iPhone.
Oh, yeah.
I thought that was somewhat bullish.
Oh, we're getting...
We just ran through 442.
Well, back test.
Can they hold?
Black remainder hold.
It's getting a lot more bullish.
I kind of wish I held that
but I did whatever it was
be right here you could reload
it's tough dude
I don't know that I would
I mean I feel you
I couldn't reload
I'd probably be short
yeah I gotta be happy with what I took
that was a great play.
They're holding.
I don't have anything in between.
Lost in the high a day.
We're holding 442.
London Orb holding here on gold.
Orb high to orb low.
Now we're back at VWAP mid-orb.
I'd maybe look at smaller time frame CBC for guidance right now.
Oh my god, rocket rocket. Am I on zero days or what the fuck's going on?
Damn, Jesus Christ.
Alright,
Spy just back-tested its midpoint right here.
Q's slightly stronger
than Spy.
Your internals are both still positive moving up.
10% on the lab of rocket. Oh, I'm long I am I am reaping in the grand ones
international recognition I'm sure yes here near VWAP giving a little bit of a
leash for the risk long as short maple you sure I took I took the short so did
I yeah 10 minute Ea v watt back test
fucking late now it could range which would negate the momentum right we'll see
jordy's watching his smt right now that's all i know oh yeah we had one at the lows that's
part of my note we have one right now i mean i don't know smt like you know the highs all right here right
now all i see is one of these two is his line keys are smooth one of the two yeah spy is not
a long fuse looks like it wants to go higher the way i see it is we had one at the highs but i think
personally that that did its job and doesn't matter anymore because it took us to the london low and
those overnight lows and
then made SMT there so I look at that one at highs here and I don't care about
it that's the way I look at this but yeah you're kind of in a range where you
have it at the highs and the lows and you're just stuck in the middle
You're just stuck in the middle.
AMD holding, not extending.
AMD is a full ripper.
I will say, SMT means nothing if it's not at a key level.
Yes.
That's where I used to go wrong myself,
and I see a lot of people going wrong.
They just see divergence happening between our two assets
at random spots, and they pattern train it it and then they get screwed nothing means anything
if they're not at the key levels precisely yeah to that end absolutely yeah couldn't agree more
taking that trade off winner winner 45 another day another iron condor Tradeoff. Winner. Winner. 45%.
Another day, another Iron Condor.
How's...
That's quick.
How's Ace from your channel doing, Paper?
I haven't talked to him in a while.
Who?
Ace of Trades.
Ace?
Yeah.
Ace is doing the...
Dude, you should see his YouTube.
Oh, he's cooking.
He called it only props? I know, I love it. Or something like that. No, Prop Hub. his YouTube. Oh, he's cooking. He called it only props?
I know, I love it.
Or something like that.
No, prop hub.
Prop hub.
Prop hub.
Love it.
Yeah, he'll go live every day, dude.
That's awesome.
Yeah, he killed it.
Costco 970 break for the put swings, if you haven't.
Looking good.
New logo.
Yeah, I love this.
Five point gain, ES, covered half.
Nice rejection there, Maple, for that short on ES.
Thank you, sir. That's a perfect spot for it.
Yeah,
at prop hub trading.
Amazon holding the 20.
Google week as shit.
Tesla can sit here sideways.
The zero duty can burn.
The Googs, Jesus.
Oh, am you?
Am you new high day?
Google looks like that.
Can they take that?
Meta looks better. Google looks like they take meta looks better Google looks like
oh they definitely took that
I think I think
took the same trade I did
part of me just wants to
I don't I shouldn't do it
I'm not gonna do, but I want to.
I don't want to short Google in the hole,
but God, do I think you could fall a lot.
I'm not saying on a day trade.
I'm talking more medium term.
I'm not saying on a day trade.
I'm not saying on a day trade. A lot of people are seeing Oh, look at him.
Cooking it over that 442.
I don't have any reason to believe we don't go try and take London high now.
You did have divergence up there, but that divergence pushed us to the lows.
It no longer matters to me.
And you, yeah.
Yeah, I see this.
You're all right.
I should have could have won her the best triggers ever.
You're the best.
Never seen anyone better.
I had a feeling we would try and run through this gap,
but I was just like, no, if we reject and hit it break even,
I'm going to be mad, so I'm taking my money.
Nice move.
Nice move. is first time condo i sold covered it for 42 percent gain
i still got one i laddered them in there so i got one. I laddered them in there, so I got one to go.
There you go, one.
Spy opening range retest cues half of orgs right here.
Nearly fair value, 590s.
Software week, dude. software week
gold looking like a short two here off VWAT 20 EMA.
That's a pretty big... Oh, GDX hit 90 in the pre?
All right.
All right, all right, all right.
I was waiting for 90, 93.
Oh, there it is. 90, 93.
Oh, there it is.
CDX $80 put. Short goal, three-minute CVC. There you go.
Look at ES.
Short green, cover red.
Oh, yeah, gold.
Somebody asked what's up with Core Reef.
A five-point oil.
Six-point gain, gold, covered half.
Easy short after the CBC flip.
I don't know exactly what's going on with Core Reef,
but having a good day on the gap up,
taking out Monday's high from last week
into that bigger time frame gap.
I don't know.
In my opinion, probably a short up here.
Got that gap below to fill.
You're at basically half gap of this bigger time frame range.
It's just...
Is that candle real?
Yeah.
A little wicky.
More candle.
On TradingView Spy,
it just went all the way up to
660.5.
Whoa, I see that. That did not happen
on the futures.
Yeah, no, it didn't happen.
QQQ didn't go all the way up there either,
I don't believe, but Spy specifically, it went all the way up to high of day.
So you're telling me a new intraday high coming soon on NQ?
It's a sign.
Come on.
Come on.
Long.
I'm not even in it anymore.
I just want to see it play out for my satisfaction of analysis.
NVIDIA new high.
NVIDIA new high. analysis and video hi and being you hi
some someone just loaded before a Trump announcement this is what it feels like like it's they sold it also a little repeated the other day Is IV better form?
Yes, not April. Hey, good morning, guys.
What's going on?
Good morning.
What's up, B?
What's up?
Just sitting here getting my scalps in.
Yes, sir.
And he's holding. I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me.
I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to stay with me. I'm going to go to the next one. Well, Rocket Lab's up 11.7%.
Say what the hell's going on?
And I'll be shorting it soon.
Oh, shit.
Still in this range, but...
I longed it.
I'll go sniping.
They're about to launch for the European Space Agency
in three hours from now.
Ooh.
Wait, I'm sorry. They did it already.
They're about to do it again.
Excuse me.
Yeah, I longed it.
And I'll be short in it if they get up to 76.
The original European launch was at 6 a.m.
And I believe that they have another one scheduled coming up shortly.
I'm finding exactly when.
I can't believe I haven't seen a rocket lab ship take off.
I need to watch that one.
Three minute CBC did just flip as well on uh gold trying to see if this golden zone maintains
for us here it is really risky because cbc is bullish so i should be buying red candles but
i don't trust the buys off of vwap back test yeah i realized that's amazing jesus christ
test yeah i realized that's amazing jesus christ oh my bad i was unmuted
there we go yeah here we go previous day high potential 646 es
but they could soak up this red candle I don't want zero days.
This is some shit.
I don't like the way those trade.
Whoa.
Whoa. whoa
something tesla off the 220 it's gonna chop the shit out of everybody.
This thing.
Oh, wow.
390 foot so next week heavy. I'm cruising. Long gold, 10 minute red.
Q looking stronger.
If it's going to take out the high, I'm going to do it before.
Yes.
So SPY and QQQ are both in squeezes from the five-minute chart all the way to the four-hour currently.
I do have some really big overhead supply resistance, and then obviously buyers are still stepping in.
But I think with what was just said a little bit ago from Iran, personally, I think the U.S. is scrambling right now trying to figure out their response.
I think we're going to be one headline away from seeing something crazy move in the market today.
In my opinion, I mean, you got to think Iran just came to the U.S. and said, we're giving you a proposal to go ahead and end this war on these five conditions.
I mean, Trump's either going to say, go fuck yourself, no way.
And we have more beautiful missiles and beautiful rockets
and shit like that,
or, you know, the rebuttal with the proposal, something else.
I think when that headline comes out,
we're probably going to see some volatility again.
So just be careful if you have open positions,
because obviously we're one headline away
from blowing our accounts or becoming millionaires,
if you're in the right direction.
Internals are very strong.
Your Vol DQ is significantly stronger than Vol D.
So your Q is having Your highest levels of gamma are all above for SPX SPY and QQQ.
SPX is actually 66.55, about 45 points higher.
SPY is 6.60 Q's is 594.
You got AMD, new high of day, hitting 220.
Watch Google for a potential reversal off these lows down here.
Your previous day low.
A lot of bottom wicks.
I'm kind of basing down here if it does set up a
cut remainder ES.
Reversal potentially on a 15 and 30 minute.
MRVL talked about this one yesterday over 92 bucks for the daily gap fill to 97. Thank you. still cruising just a little bit slower
it's from the high 54 points from London.
Short ES again, VWAP, 20 EMA. Thank you. core reef up 6.2 now rocket lab 12.8 still not even near previous week high previous week high is 78 70. i need to rock lab to get up to like 75 60 to start a short
didn't get there it got so close i mean it could still get there but
hope it does nh is red hd is red Red. Thank you. It's going sideways in this little 50-point range here
from 500s to 430s.
430s.
IWM rejected 253 again.
In a big spot.
Thank you. Honestly, I'm realizing that short I missed out on.
It really was an entry.
I just didn't get the initial one I was looking at, but...
If there was a good entry, go break even as soon as you hit that 830 low,
low, that would have hit full TP as well.
that would have hit full TP as well.
I find it hard to
short basically at a new low a day though, even though we had reason to trade to that
pre-market low. It's hard to short a low a day.
And it was like breaking the spot that I wanted to be going break even at.
It's all good good we got the long
you Thank you. five point gain gold sold half Very nice.
Ooh, new highs.
Not new highs, sorry.
Something else.
Gold approaching a London orb high here, 568. NVIDIA popping higher. NVIDIA.
It's got freaking slow. Thank you. Crude oil is bouncing back pretty well.
Crude oil is bouncing back pretty well.
It's really just been in a range since that market open pop.
Need that to stay down a bit.
This market to keep going. There you go, gold, approaching that London orb.
Over that I have today's orb high, 575.8.
Okay. Today's orb high, 575.8. There you go, London Orb High.
There's eight points, gold.
I'm going to sell a quarter.
Let me go.
Iran says it will not allow President Trump to dictate when the war ends.
Yeah.
Yesterday was so funny.
He's like, y'all are just fucking lost.
Basically.
It's insane.
Just look at our military.
They've already lost.
Already lost.
I think he's told the same story about those 101 missiles,
those beautiful missiles.
Talks about how every single one of them hit.
It was like not a single one missed.
They all hit.
No one else is doing that. No one else is doing that.
I think we are setting up a little choppy here on SPY until we see a headline.
You have your seller stepping in around your 660, 661 area on SPY.
Your demand and buyers are stepping in underneath 656 down to 655.17.
We are in the middle.
I'd sell an SPX Iron Condor, but again, one headline is going to ruin that
entire day, so I'm not going to sell an SPX Iron Condor today. I pinned it up in the nest above.
I pinned it up in the nest above.
It'll show you my trading view chart for the executions on ES this morning up there at 66.80.
And then covering it to the downside as well as the SPY chart and trade off the top level as well.
I'm just...
All right, stop.
Hit on ES.
Sit back and let this unfold.
Gracias. Take it to London.
Come on.
Go long ladder. Thank you. So if we break these highs, where are we going?
We got 90 in May at
583, which is 80 points higher.
For Qs, that's a dollar higher.
I got 540, and then
we're running over that.
I got 689.
I don't know if we run
that today, but...
That's a big boy right there.
It's 540, and I'd like to see...
You might have bolted half of the ladder.
That's a big boy.
damn they did not let me short rocket lab that is so fucked
oh bastards
bastards, bastards. Thank you. Cruisin'.
Come on.
Slowly but surely, making our way to 540. Thank you. Long ES, 10 minutes CBC.
The boy trying to get freaky.
I like it.
We're going to bust through this high when it happens. Thank you. Thank you. And Tesla's been looking good all day.
Did we fill that gap?
We did fill the gap.
Resweep of those bigger time frame lows.
Spire stepped in.
Did we actually get some higher highs and higher lows created, though,
in this bigger time frame?
I don't know.
She tried after the last
sweep and wasn't able to do it Okay. Thank you. still i didn't sit in here my brother just made his first trade with automation ever
was it a long was Was it a short?
It took two trades this morning.
In pre-market it took a, I believe it was a short that it stopped out of,
and then it took a long and a nice trade there. Thank you. 11 o'clock Eastern.
I've been done, but that officially marks the time that I am done trading for the day.
Oh, great morning.
I don't know if this price action continues to be cleaned at this London high,
but it's gotten slow here,
so it makes it a little tougher to try and actually trade this to that area,
but I still think we try and draw towards there. Thank you. Thank you. Oh, nice little dip there.
Nice weird little dip.
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm. Thank you. Yeah.
Yeah. All right. Thank you. Market just went to sleep. Okay. Thank you. okay
market lab taking a little bit but holding up well
i don't know what else you do with this market here
the day is over for me I'm going to test the VWAP again, but it feels very heavy to me.
We'll see. Yeah, there's no follow through here as usual.
Man.
Unless you're like Microsoft, that kind of looks like it wants to follow through.
Flat use.
It's flat king, right?
Yeah.
I think we really need some confirmation of some good news.
IGV new low.
Or equal lows. This is a there's a sweep i was looking for gold about to flip cpc as well as es
damn they smacked it
yeah
do not want to take it to London. Another Tesla, that's one amazing.
Oops, sorry.
I'm not muted.
T-SLA below pre-market highs.
I'm going to reject the 20 and the 200 up there.
I made a little bit of a version
moves apple i like i actually like apple and it was mostly because jordi got me all
bulled up on this on this flip phone but i don't know
right means you can it doesn't it doesn't have the ai exposure that's for sure
you can it doesn't it doesn't have the ai exposure that's for sure so who knows
trading on the foldable phone my my amazons are at the money holy
I should show them 30.
Good Lord, Microsoft 371.
New lows.
Is it a 52-week low again?
It's got to be.
This is the spot.
There's a little intraday gap 367 that they're going to go for.
Holy schmoly.
They hate Microsoft. Tender down. they hate microsoft tender down
hi i will be back i gotta go to a little baby appointment for that market is dropping
a what a what what did he say a baby appointment you're having a baby oh yeah oh dude congrats bro baby babies do like oh no yeah like has it
been that long or you just kept a secret for that long no i said it on here um yeah doing seven
weeks let's go oh hell yeah one day dude i'm just saying we're all gonna have to get together bring the kids together and see all the baby traders babies
Dude out of control Apple super strong Jordy great call on the fucking flip
On Twitter, you know, I'll see you guys in a bit sounds good not like
Later not later
Hope you find your dad.
Where's the leak, man?
What?
Yo, I said that this morning, Jordan.
So, dude, so...
Me when I'm short.
I sit down at my desk and I get a camera notification
that someone's in my front yard working on something.
Short, gold, 10-minute green.
Dude, just...
I'm like, what the heck is going on?
And there's a dude from the water company working on my water meter.
And he's saying that the numbers aren't going up whenever I'm using the water, so it's not reading it correctly.
And then I came back inside, and that's exactly what I said
when they asked me what he's doing out there.
I was like, I don't know.
Apparently the meter's not working,
and I was like, where's the leak, ma'am?
I foretold that happening, bro.
That was...
I just gave you a little foreshadow.
Wow, we came in hard.
I did not expect this from that spot.
I thought we had at least take London first.
Look at Q's.
Okay.
Q's just rejecting those same highs up there.
Some upper wicks on your 15-minute.
Yeah, biggest practice.
30-minute.
Biggest practice I'd be right now.
Software.
Bro, Knot's having a baby. He's got to be flippingV right now. Software. Bro, Knot's having a baby.
He's got to be flipping out right now.
I'm so excited.
I know, that's awesome.
Biggest crack is IGV, which keeps me happy in a Google short, hence the software, basically.
Meta's probably not along, so...
The IGV move, if it cracks, it's gonna be heavy.
Well, it's heavy. It's new lows. It's to 70s, maybe lower.
I don't want to see it below 70.
It is flushing, baby.
Me, it's a new low. Or no, Danilo.
Or no, equal as interest.
I should have fucking bought that bitch back.
Really?
Really?
I'm mad.
Stole that shit.
I just, I scalped a 595 zero DTE put, and then i closed it uh i don't even want to look at it
i can look at it zero these new contracts are oh you dudes
it's like a buck 20 they're 230 now oil pushing pre-market high here
2.30 now.
Oil pushing pre-market high here.
I'm going to have a break. yes or below scale and trail five point gain gold covered half I'm not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure if you're not sure Dude, Google is going to...
I can fucking roll.
What am I doing?
Google, I don't need a zero day.
285s, what are they doing?
Jordan.
Yes, sir.
Do you have a WAP account?
Yes.
He does.
I don't use it often, but yes, I do.
Yeah.
Okay, cool.
I'm going to text you something real quick.
That way I can have you test it out for me sometime.
Not right now, but some point in time within the next either today or a few days.
Yeah, you're good. either today or okay
i gotta do this one too many short green cover red gold here we go baby oh yeah it's getting nasty. New load. Come on, gold. Bye.
10 point gain gold.
Covered a quarter.
Whoa, I just have money sitting in my wad, bro.
Dude, that shit happens all the time.
I love that.
Yeah, especially if you have multiple accounts.
I just never go on here because I'm not doing a lot on here.
Dude, dude, dude. Is this news?
Because this is flushing.
This is bad, yeah. This is rough.
Oh my gosh. We should give up that Trump pump
from...
Where is that level?
That's what that is.
A nuclear power plant
in Iran was struck again.
Yes, look at oil going.
Just a headline.
Let's go.
Today's low on gold, 531 will be 20 points.
Oh, my God.
Let's go.
Fat red candle.
If you're going to be excited like this or any of us, you should be taking profit, not chasing.
Yeah.
Well, I mean, I scream and yell a lot.
So, I mean, there's that.
But he's right
he's right that that's an indication of money right yeah can't hide money
dude i don't even need to put a put spread on this april spoo's bear call spread
i don't think so 652 that's the number at first by dude
Yeah, I'm setting a withdraw.
Shit.
All right.
Amaz on 210s.
All right, watch for potential bounce here.
Just overextended tick.
Just went like minus.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Oh, Jesus.
Quickly.
Like 1,300.
I'm going to take some more Amazon.
Soft gap.
Tessie, short at the money
I said it
take profit
don't chase it
look at gold
that's a huge wick
20 point wick
also saying
Jordy
still amazing pick
on the slapple
bro long foldable phone man
don't know what to tell you
super cycle is real
it is
I thought I was lying
not lying
damn
sphincter on coin played out again again
i think coin's gonna be in the 150s again Alright, there's a little long scalp right here.
Overextended tick, oversold RSI.
Make sure you cover him. I'm going to stop up.
Hello, hello.
Goodbye.
She's been in the pretty market in the world.
We've been in the trunk in that book,
but couldn't it stop you?
Could sleep a bit as an environment or something.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Chai-Chai is sponsored by Drunk Co's Business,
and I'm already in box of new news.
So, you're buying transactions business
I have to do it. I am all out.
Quick, quick, quick gains.
Yeah, I love that, man.
It saves your mental capital, too.
I mean... that, man. It saves your mental capital, too.
I mean... Yes, sir.
Nice job, Sarge.
400 bucks.
Long.
Nice job.
Nice job.
Nice scalp here.
Nice scalp here.
Great job.
Great job.
It's the bottom of the zone for SPY and Q's just swept underneath of it.
Your RSI dipped under 30.
Again, like minus 1,400 tick.
Now we're backtesting pre-market lows right there.
There you go.
Yeah, look for SPY to retest yesterday's highs.
I've got 657.03.
Nice bounce.
Gnarly bottom wick setting up on the queues here.
I'm setting up on the queues here.
Oh Moo, he loves.
Oh, Lou.
He loves.
Moo's average week being slow, I don't know about that.
Conter 155, 156.
GLW's hot, too much.
Apple, fucking over opening range.
Over opening range.
Son of a bitch. The fact that they're still buying this is like, I mean, kind of wild.
There's your pre-market low back test.
That's about 20 points here on ES.
Yep.
He took the long NQ, just around that 300 area.
It's like 70.
Yep.
So three for three on the day.
Man, I kind of fumbled those spy puts.
I played it down to yesterday's highs,
and then right after i sold it kind of
started breaking through um but got out of those a little over a dollar i think i was in from
58 cents or something look at that they shot up they shot i could have now we have a high tech
like i i can't keep doing this or can you can't keep i could i could this is unnecessary
necessary.
That's
insane. We just went from minus
like 1400 to almost
plus 800.
Short gold.
Reload it.
What is that one is it circle crco is that the one y'all keep talking about yeah yeah but that's something that has to do with the clarity act why crypto is all getting fucked
103 ah support ish insane text Good God. Did some of y'all catch
circle shorts yesterday?
I did not.
Crazy move.
I don't even want to touch it.
If you were trading that on the intraday, you did.
Yeah, I don't know anything about this.
Looks like it moves crazy. I was like $1 away from my lives of the things that we're going to do and I'm not going to do this
but I'm going to keep it
from Facebook
and I think that I do
and I don't know if it's a
something that's going to do
and I'm going to do it
and I'm going to get
so we're going to get
so we're going to get
the like button on X got a little update.
No, no, like when you press like on a tweet, it does little sparkles.
Oh, shit.
They made it a little fancier. You taking the circle short here, B?
At the opening range low?
Opening print?
No, God, no.
No, I'm just, I'm flat.
I'm bored.
I was like, let me look at some of these other tickets.
I thought that's a joke.
I say, it's not horrible that's a pretty clean retest of the opening blows
is this going to go to ultra high tick i'm not closing the short here
so circle does what now they do what for ai they don't do anything for ai oh it's this thing called
the clarity act but they're basically the they they they manage USDC, which is a crypto dollar equivalent.
They're basically the Dixie of crypto.
Oh, okay.
But there's a staking component built in there, and the Clarity Act is supposed to be pretty
bullish for the space,
and they didn't have staking.
They pulled basically the staking component,
which is DeFi, out of the Clarity Act,
which means that the way that the blockchains are structured right now
is not going to fly.
Well, I love you, so I'm just going to pretend
that I'm what you're talking about,
but I don't.
Basically, expectations changed.
Yeah.
So, yeah.
Well,
that was a nice long area.
Maybe I can't still a condor.
We are coming back to the opening price on queues.
Nice job.
Jesse for like 270% on Microsoft, like $2,000 profit for the day. That's insane.
Great job.
$11 loss, now up $395 on the day.
Great job, FUPA.
Change your name.
Love the games, though. look at this tech casing uh i know
this is i don't i i don't i One of the top things I have been coding so far is using Tick.
And with this market
that we're in right now, it has been
absolutely fucking incredible.
Yeah, I don't use it this much that often, but
over the last month or so, it's been...
It's come in pretty clutch.
It has been killer.
Again, just buyers, the aerial and spy around that 655 area that was the lowest spot for the zone they wicked it down there look at that candle at 1115 they closed it 65514
minus 1400 tick risk reward right there for the scalp long. I'm hitting at 9 times out of 10.
Now look at this retracement back to the range.
Yeah, if we see the equivalent on the upside tick.
Just got to do it, dude.
Well, that was one of the reasons why I went short this morning.
The opening tick was like minus 1,500.
No, it was plus 1,500.
Yeah.
Yeah, and then SPY, pre-market highs.
I mean…
Yeah, plus 1,450.
Whether that happens in the first 10 minutes or intraday, that setup's there.
I'm going to take that.
And what do we do?
We sold all the way off, back down pre-market lows they're just this market's very rangy unless you know something big catalyst is going on so if you just
mark the pivot points and make it honestly very simple you can you can make some quick money off
these pivot points i mean all of them are risk, high reward trades because you're literally buying at the absolute low down there
and selling at the high.
Really tight stops with these setups.
Got a trend line rejection on ES right here that it just drew onto the chart.
ES right here that it just drew onto the chart. Spy on trading view. If you are using the trend
line indicator, it's going to screw you up because of that stupid 1025 wick that's not real. Futures
doesn't have it. But if you go to ES, draw your trend line, 935, and then the highs from like 1055 area to right here.
You got a trend line right there just for a lower high.
So just watch for resistance up here around this 66-58, 66-60 area on ES after this pop-up. Hey, guys, I'm going to go grab some lunch, man.
Fun trading with y'all
all right all right clear to be trades
late good morning Thank you. . Thank you. and Thank you. Okay. I have that work. all right here's your rejection on that trend line yes right that 66 58 nothing crazy just
10 points it's trying to trigger a sell if the five minute candle loses like 66, 47, closes underneath that.
Nice job, Sarge. Nice job on the short.
Is it 10 points US?
Yeah. 11, 12, there you go go now it's starting to trigger a cell
boom there you go
Oh look at that sell signal that's fat that's a fat sell left oh
oh look at that cell signal that's fat that's a fat cell
Sunny they can take now
Once again
All right, you're coming down to pre-market low here on spy 656 47 and prior day high Tesla for keys and spy both yeah
I don't want to see a lot of chalk.
You really can just keep doing this over and over again.
I mean, if it sustains below pre-market levels,
these are just a failed upside days,
and that's just an intraday.
You're set up for an outside bleeder
for a bearish engulfing
if you go much lower
well the issue
is it's like all of a sudden
didn't Trump say we're not going to attack
any of their energy facilities
now we're attacking
their nuclear power plant again
now it literally doesn't matter
what the announcement is
there's just like too much fucking too much back and forth nobody's going to trust anything i think the credit the problem is
to yesterday's point we said this is like you start to the credibility is going to get blown
that that's exactly what i'm saying yeah it's everything they say no one's going to trust it
trust that the market's just going to probably sell.
the market's just going to probably sell
I will say, though, these semis do look pretty good.
Honestly, dude, I get – they're not going to hold up if this –
they're just going to be like one more general to fall.
Like, I'm very – I mean, for trades maybe but but like i mean i don't know
who was talking about marvell earlier like i know marvell like really good and this is not getting
through this level this is heavy overhead resistance literally right here right now so like
just like dude yeah well that and and look at look at where AMD went to today. Yeah, it's like highs, those prior highs, right at like 219.
Yeah, we've like been there, done that.
I'm like, I'm not trying to fucking play that game again.
Get caught like.
I just think, I mean, Google did make a new low today.
It did.
Microsoft's probably going to be filing bankruptcy here in the next, you know, 36 hours based on that chart.
Dude, well, look at IGV.
I know.
The ETF.
It's new lows.
It's new lows.
Yeah, we had that bounce from the mid-70s,
and all that's done is really created almost like a little bear flag,
and then that just broke again a couple weeks ago.
But I think you'd probably go retest that low.
But I think at this point, I don't see a reason,
other than we get some big bullish news,
that Microsoft doesn't just go straight to $345, $350.
No, yeah.
With oil this high, the storyline is going to be fucking inflation is too hot, too long.
And, and now it's going to impact GDP and ad spend is going to go down.
And so like for Google, as an example in that, in that environment, you know, nearly 80% of their revenues, ad spend, that's going to get cut.
ad spend, that's going to get cut.
Same with meta.
Same with meta.
And then if those are the hyperscalers,
that's the next level of thinking.
If those are the hyperscalers spending money
on the data center builds,
if they're making less,
then they're going to have less CapEx to spend,
which would take down the semis.
If the storyline goes one level further,
that's where it would be.
Yeah, exactly.
Because the other problem
is too like these these charts like in general i mean like look at tesla today perfect touch of
the 200 and the 21 on the daily and just got rejected that was my short right at the highs
yeah it was a great short um google slipping below 290 and cleared yesterday's lows i mean i honestly like google
now here we go bearish engulfing setup on the at the index level right now all right that's almost
20 points on the es short right so i gotta measure half of yesterday's range so that would be
primary so that would be yesterday high to low at 653 on spy that's
that's just over my nfp level 652 probably but if you breach that i'm thinking
for google i don't know this might be i'm gonna go out give it some time maybe like couple two
three weeks but i almost want to buy now like the 287,
260 put spread and I'm going to sell the three 15 calls naked.
Oh dude.
So I already posted the January,
2027 short to 50 calls long to 40 puts
collects a lot of money.
You can do it against your shares a big calendar yeah yeah
no it's just it's a risk reversal straight up bearish but if you do it against shares
that actually collected over 55 yesterday it's probably still about 50 bucks collecting you
call sold the 250 calls so they're deep in the money.
Yep.
Buy the 240 put.
I see.
Okay.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And if you own shares, if you own shares, it's a 100% hedge.
So you don't have to sell anything.
And you collect $50 per share to do that.
Yeah, that's a good trade.
He's a hedge.
Like, you love Google.
And I don't intend on selling
Google for, you know,
all year, no matter what.
Collect 50 bucks right here, right now.
100% hedge.
You went to January
27th. Yeah, because because that like imagines at 300
or just under that's still giving you a synthetic exit to like 350 ish no it's not really but like
it if you collect 50 per share my my trading view just froze on me um did did google ever trade at 315 3 319 i think or 3 3 47 348
you're essentially getting money as if you sold it there but you're also protecting the whole position
yeah i i see i like yeah if you're long, that trade makes sense for sure. That trade makes a fuckload of sense right now.
Yep.
I did something similar on hoodie and Tesla at the highs, but relative highs, but I didn't buy the puts.
I just sold in the money calls.
I mean, this one is pretty clear to me.
I think you could buy the puts.
And in retrospect, I should have bought the... Yeah, I sold 400 calls.
It was trading at like five something.
It was trading at, yeah, like $550.
Or no, $480.
And I collected $150 per contract to sell January 2027 calls.
$400 calls.
Just under 500. Well, it was trading just under 500.
So I had a $600 upside target on the shares.
Collecting 150 per contract gave me,
essentially manufactured 550 or 650 exit.
I don't think it was going to sell that necessarily.
Plus protects 150 to the downside.
But I could have bought the puts at the same time for a fraction.
And still collected.
But, you know, that was in December.
Also, because I didn't really want to take the tax hit for 2026.
I wish I did take some tax hits because I got to pay a big one this year.
Yeah.
Not good.
Just try this day after 7th.
See if it works.
I don't understand.
See if it's an extra day for a trip to come up with a business. Hmm. see the works that people want. I don't understand to see this next big projection
come up
but it just
not the best.
Yeah,
Google just looks,
I don't,
I mean,
that's as clean,
I mean,
I feel like that's
a very clean
head and shoulders there.
The biggest problem
with Google
is how it got
to where it is.
The biggest problem
with Google
is that everybody
got in late
or it just,
it moves so fast that there's not really
the potential for people to have like caught it really well and like it could it could flush very
quickly there's no structure here like the structure the structure below like 295 like it
gets you got a little it's insanely thin yeah but like it gets thin down to 250 250s
you know 255 240s 230s yeah like all that that's the problem and then and then from there i really
think like that 207 high or really i mean you almost get back down from around 200. i hate to say it no correct but but in short order like below 288
it's like a flush to 240s yeah it kind of looks like microsoft honestly that and microsoft's
about to lose 370 here yeah and looking at like igb speaking of marvell what the the it's breaking out of its earnings high 98. she's gonna try for it
i'm not chasing that but i don't want to sell like marvell either so like soxs is what i'm
thinking about nibbling as close to 30 as i can but like i already started it uh but i'll keep nibbling it down to 30.
marvell wants it though but i can't originally it caught microsoft at the trend line i rode that first bounce there from the gap bill like 390 i was long probably like 392 is my average, and I sold a lot of it at that like 4, I think
when it ran up to like 420.
Yeah.
Tessie had the half gap here also.
It was a gap, overnight gap, by the way.
The only thing with, not that we don't go straight.
Oh, there was a gap on, is there another gap on Microsoft?
Yeah.
There is.
Right here.
Like 367s or something. Yeah i didn't see that i didn't
have that on my chart 367 yes there is a gap yeah it's accurate but it's not like it's it's just like
mediocre support it's not even yeah it's not clean no i mean that 350 is a little bit better area 340 to 350 but um i mean it could
bounce here and then if it doesn't hold the the the bounce like that that's the problem you know
buybacks open up mid-april so like we'll get a flood of inflows to the market around then which could set up for another bounce but if it doesn't
hold after that that's where it would be like you know september october 330s right especially
depending on the sentiment or the rhetoric of the market
oh did i miss this from again on the goods
yapping I'm just so gun shy about putting on a lot of new stuff because I just think that
the news flow is just so all over the place. I just don't know.
I don't really want to swing
anything. I've been leaning
short. I cover a lot
of my shorts at kind of the lows
last week that I was
more neutral.
Yeah. It's the
year of the call credit spreads, dude.
Yeah. I mean, I've been trading short leads bro
Short lead calls in the money
I mean honestly like I was thinking about Google like why not just go out to like July and sell like the
375s or something like aggressively it's like
You know you're down obviously I think that's a gimme that's a gimme
Yeah, I think it's I gimme that's a gimme yeah i think it's
i don't want to say it's free money but if you're long shares i would definitely be selling calls
in google now that it's breaking this structure after the run i think like i think i really do
think like covered calls get a bad rap sometimes like oh it's not a great strategy they suck i'm
like well it's all different from the market.
People don't know how to, they don't know how,
they don't know how to determine what market we're in.
Yes.
I think it's when it's the big thing is when do you sell them?
When do you utilize that strategy?
Like, obviously if you were like, hey,
last year when Google made a run from 160 to, you know, three, three thirties,
like, no,
was that a good environment to be selling calls in? Absolutely not.
Why? Because you're above all the moving averages.
You've got an upward sloping 50 or above the 200.
But if I'm below the 50 and I'm, I'm in a downtrend,
I'm probably that's when you sell them.
I mean, super hot take stock consolidates. Yeah. Super hot take.
Like, cause everybody's recency biased.
2025 was the year that all the theses played out.
Everything worked out exactly as you would think, right?
But that's not normal.
Hot take would be 2026. We come in expecting, you know, multiple rate cuts for the year.
New, like, AI data center generational build out.
2026 could be the year that nothing plays out the way that you think
or that we started thinking.
And that's also not totally abnormal.
No, I was saying that before.
No, I was saying that before.
I thought that we would get a much larger consolidation this year.
I said we've been up.
We've had a huge run the last three years, right?
So I'm like, you can't expect the market to go up another 20% or 25% in 26.
Could it?
Sure.
But the odds are kind of stacked against you.
Yeah.
I mean, we're due for a nice little pullback.
Yeah. I mean, long-term, bull market for sure.
But I would love us to see 6,000 SPX.
I mean, that would be – if we started below that.
Yeah. That's a buy. That's a buy there for sure it's a buy
you want to be long at literally what is that that's just just around 20 off the highs off the
like 52 week highs which is like right when everybody's going to call the bear market
you know and they're going to freak out but unless we that, I don't know that we get a flush out.
Like we were on stocks on space last night with leverage shares with Paul.
And we're like, you know, I think you're kind of him.
What's that?
I don't know, Paul.
I think it's Paul, right?
I think it's.
Will?
Or like.
Yeah.
Anyways, sorry.
Anyways.
But the point was like, we're kind of on the same page as far as I think the broad context of the market is it's going to be choppy.
We probably have some headwinds coming as far as higher oil bites into the consumer, maybe the job market but if this does get resolved which it seems like we're in a de-escalation
somewhat of a phase it's definitely a little bit less rhetoric than we had last weekend which was
we're going to go in there and give them 24 hours or we're taking out the entire country
so if that's the case maybe the market just chops sideways for a while. Guess what we have coming in very short order?
Earnings.
You got Q1 earnings coming.
So we'll see what those look like.
And maybe it's a market to go sideways.
Now, on the back half of the year, if we do get oil to kind of come in,
we get interest rates to come down,
and the economy can kind of hang in there where this isn't super disruptive.
Maybe the second half of the year could be better to the long side is what I think.
Now, could we work our way down to 6,000?
A hundred percent.
I said it back in October, November in the fourth quarter after I really started to see things break down from a breast standpoint, from a credit standpoint.
Those are the things we're not out of the woods yet.
We're not in the woods on private credit.
Credit spread's still widening.
Jobs market is still, you know, we'll see what we get for March.
But obviously, February wasn't good.
January wasn't very great.
And December was revised down to negative.
So, and then you take all the revisions that we had last year, basically averaging 15,000
jobs.
So I think the Fed is going to be in a really difficult spot.
If unemployment goes up, the jobs numbers are weak and inflation goes up.
The revisions were the first massive crack, right?
You're like, wait a second, 15,000 jobs or something.
That is recession average.
But if that's the right number, if that's the accurate number, that is recession like that but but if we if that's the right number if that's the
accurate number that that is recession melania's like yeah right now by the way yo pleasure making
money with you guys today let's do it it's time pleasure mates yes sir have a great day love you
guys love you brother you guys taco trump you know fostering the future to get the global
coalition summit at the White House.
Yeah.
I don't see Trump at all, though.
It's just her.
Got lunchtime coming up.
We're going to get chatting with Michael Coe from Yield Max.
Any of you guys are free to hang out with us.
Stay on if you want.
I got to jump.
I don't know if FEMP was on stream yet, to be completely honest.
I didn't see him. I didn't get a text from him, so I don't think so. I was on stream yet, to be completely honest. I didn't see him.
I didn't get a text from him, so I don't think so.
I know he was doing something with his kid this morning.
There was something at his kid's school that he had to go to.
Gotcha.
Yeah, I haven't seen.
It looks like he has it scheduled for 12-15,
so maybe in 15 minutes I could start it.
Watch out for that.
I'll be hopping over there after uh
after we do our weekly yield max combo here so it's been great morning this is this is a another
great iron condor day that i'm having i've just been rinsing repeating the strategy and i am now
at least in this account i have had not one day in March that's been a loser so far.
Oh, let's go.
We love that.
93% win rate, 41 trades, only three losses.
Very impressive.
In the options.
I'll post it in the, you can see it in the nest.
Full disclosure.
Let's get my co-op here. Doing some automated and some automated opens, manual opens, a little bit of combo both.
Yeah, I had some automated this morning as well.
I'm actually still in one, it looks like.
I got it.
You know, Jordan, here's what I want to do.
When you get some time and we can get together, I would love to.
I want to set up ClearEdge and I want to run that.
Absolutely.
I just helped my brother. together i would love to i want to set up clear edge and i want to run that absolutely i just
helped my brother and that was probably the hardest i'll ever like the hardest time i'll
ever have helping someone set up because he's just not like a tech person how many types with
two fingers you know so um with him it like took me all night to get him set up but dude with you
you're tech savvy i didn't get you set up so quick yeah i like i
guess i i had it like i had opened it up and i have the i have a separate um uh account with
trade of eight that i set up just for that that i put some cash in so i'm like i just have it sitting
there like waiting and i was like i started it and then i was, do you have to have it running in the background at all times?
Is that how it works?
It depends.
So right now, I personally just have it running and on all the time.
But that's because I'm here most of the time.
What you can do is...
You have it running overnight.
You're just on your PC 24-7.
Yeah, my computer stays on for a week.
But what you can do is you can get a VPS.
And so this is basically like a... I'm not going to do a good job of explaining.
Yeah, offsite.
It's an offsite server.
Yeah, it's an offsite server.
Exactly.
And so if anything happens, if your computer shuts off or anything like that, Wi-Fi, whatever, your trades will still happen.
So in that sense, if you have one of those, you can essentially just have your computer off and, you know, go do your errands, go do whatever you want throughout the day and should be good so yeah we'll set that up um yeah i want to do that yeah yeah i'm usually free in
the evening so let's hop on a call soon yeah we will i have i have it and i was just like i was
like i started with um i think me and um oh god who's what's his name? I can't think of his name off the top of my head.
Dan?
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Dan.
Or Nara.
I think I was talking to Nara originally.
Same guy.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Right.
And I was, like, trying to get it set up.
And then I was, like, you know what?
I was doing so much other stuff.
And, like, I'm trading all this other stuff.
I'm, like, you know what?
I'm just going to, like, table it for now. Because I'm, like, I just all this other stuff. I'm like, you know what, I'm just going to table it for now.
Because I'm like, I just didn't want to,
I didn't have the patience to work through everything.
But I need to do it.
I did, yeah.
Because I do like, between that and then some of the stuff
I've been doing with automated options, with Option Alpha,
we should try to get them on here.
I agree.
I think that's it.
Because I can do that with options.
Yeah, he has like the only platform that does that.
That guy's old school.
He's been around the block, man. Sounds like Wolf Crew needs to
chat with them. I'm going to bring that up to the boys.
I don't think he has
a big Twitter presence.
Okay.
We got Michael Cole up here?
Hey, how are you?
Doing great. How are you, my man?
Wow, it's been an interesting couple of weeks, hasn't it?
It's been fun for options, Mike.
It has indeed.
Who was it that was just making a reference about the iron condors?
Your mic's cutting out a little bit.
It sounds like you're trying to talk to us from the other side of the room a little bit.
Let's see.
Try to get a little closer to what I think is the microphone.
My normal device.
Yeah, it sounds like you're in and out.
I can barely hear you.
Hang on a sec.
No worries.
Let's see if I can fix this.
Take it out.
Maybe I have to rejoin sometimes
I could do it too
yeah
are you on computer
unfortunately I am because
somebody grabbed my
device let me
let me walk off
and I will try to rejoin
and see if it works a little better
sounds good no worries well yeah for the audience we're going if it works a little better. Got it. Sounds good. No worries.
Well, yeah, for the audience, we're going to be chatting a little bit about generating
income.
Option strategies, which you'll do a great job at.
We do this conversation every single week at 12 p.m.
Eastern here.
So with that said, just a reminder for everybody, we are going to be talking about some tickers
in this convo.
So just for everybody that might be looking into these tickers
or anybody listening, you guys should carefully consider a funds investment objectives, risks,
charges, and expenses before investing. If you guys want to find that prospectus from YieldMax
in the summary prospectus, you can find that at YieldMaxETFs.com. I highly recommend just read
through that, right? Know what you're actually maybe investing in
and just familiarize yourself with the products
that we're actually talking about today.
So you're up to date on that.
And I'll get the distributions posted as well
that we had from this past week.
Let's see if Michael Coe can get his Michael fixed up here.
if michael ko can get his michael fixed up here
looks like distributions were uh pretty solid on some of these names
in the in the short term if what i'm in so many bitcoin rooms now. They hate my name because it says crypto to the point where I'm literally like, guys,
if you would not say these things to my face, just letting you know.
Like the Bitcoin community, my Lord.
Get over it.
I love Bitcoin.
They're just all people stuck at 70,000, you know?
Bro, it is amazing.
Do you hear me any better at this point?
It's still cutting out.
Oh, that is really frustrating.
I wonder if it's a connection, maybe.
Are you on normal?
It sounds like internet.
It sounds like connection issues.
Not a mic issue.
It's a hardwired connection.
But I will depart once again and attempt to return.
No worries.
I'll try it again.
We'll just keep chilling looking at this market
until we get this figured out right now.
Getting into lunch, though, doesn't seem like we're slowing down a whole lot actually it looks like
we're picking up from this morning the downside here so it looks like well you got oil pressing
back to uh a little over 90 and 90 bucks here 90 40 we got flapped off that 93 30 i was talking
about yesterday finally got up yes we did yep and um yeah you're i I mean, that's, that's, here, here we go. I mean, you're in a market where oil presses higher. What happens? Market gets sold.
pressing higher they have stayed the bonds have stayed bid on the long end uh the the short end
a little bit but the long end of the curve has stayed relatively bid so um yields are still
have fallen a little bit but oil uh oil definitely off the lows silver's just making the longest
bull flag you've ever seen yeah silver it makes sense obviously
with yields coming in i thought that trade would be good uh as yields come down and the dollar
comes in a little bit you're going to get a bounce in in in uh gold and silver which obviously makes
sense but um this is i mean i'm assuming oil moving on this headline that came out. This is probably 10 minutes ago or so.
But an unnamed military source, Iran, could activate the – I'm going to butcher this.
It's the strait on the other side, which is on the Saudi Arabia and Egypt side,
that is 20 miles wide that they could, I guess, interrupt that somehow. Iran's going guess interrupt that somehow?
Iran's going to interrupt that one?
Oh, Lord.
I don't know how they would do that.
I guess we'll find out.
What is Iran trying to interrupt?
Oh, there he is.
That's better.
The other straight, I can't pronounce,
Bab El-Mandab.
That's the other straight on the other side of Saudi Arabia.
That's what they're saying.
So that doesn't sound like
they're working towards peaceful solutions.
Yeah.
They're trying to do something like that.
Anyway.
You're loud and clear. I missed whatever. It's all fixed. We like that. Anyway. You're loud and clear, by the way.
I missed whatever.
It's all fixed.
We got you.
Yeah.
That is so, so strange.
So there are quite a lot of ships that are, of course,
trapped in the region, as everybody is probably well aware.
I was tracking the tankers that were going through the strait
over the last couple of days.
The only few that were really transiting were either of Chinese origin,
Iranian origin, unsurprisingly.
There was a Thai cargo ship that was passing through the strait, but
most of the ships that are inside the Gulf remain trapped there, or at least not moving.
So that is certainly a problem. It has been interesting, though, to see that some of the
risk assessment in the options market has mitigated a little bit. If
you're taking a look at the vol surface in crude, so we can look at both Brent and WTI,
particularly in Brent, it actually has a put skew now, which is kind of interesting.
Yeah. And what I was going to say to the...
Go ahead.
Well, I was going to say to the earlier speaker...
Yeah, go ahead.
The earlier speaker who was just talking about doing the iron condors, you know, one of the
reasons probably getting decent success out of that is that the, you know, there's a lot
of concern about what could worsen that's baked into options prices.
Consequently, even though the moves have been fairly profound, they are still less than what
the market would regularly imply. At a VIX of 27, which is where we were yesterday,
things seem to be calming down a little bit today. But at that level, you're looking at an average
daily move in the S&P of about 135 basis points.
And that's not what we've been seeing.
You're looking at nearly 100 points a day is what that would suggest as a mean absolute deviation.
So it has been a good environment for premium selling in that.
Yeah, to your point, I mean, that's the strategy i've been doing for
for uh the last you know a couple months really but it's interesting because it's like everybody
sees kind of what's going on and i think like everybody's a lot of people i should say seem
like they're hedged so like everybody's long ball so like you're getting moves in the overnight
session and then during the day you kind of settle in and then the range seems to get tighter.
And you're able to get, you know, if you're doing zero DT stuff, which I've been doing some of that,
you're able to get a little bit wider and collect some premium pretty quick.
And then if the VIX does come in on a day like today, you're able to you're able to pick up some nice premium on that.
But to your point, like iv is is elevated and um you know if this vix environment
if we can stay in this you know 20 to 30 without racing higher towards 40 or something like that
it does create a nice environment for selling premium kind of in everything um and then you've
seen like oil volatility like i was what i was mentioning was ovx which is the volatility index
of oil uh went all the way to 125, and that's coming down to 89 now.
So there was some massive juice.
I know I talked about this a couple weeks ago.
I sold some calls Sunday night in crude all the way up in the 300 strikes for some pretty good premium.
And I was long S&P puts.
So I said, if oil goes to 350, we got a lot bigger problems because I think the S&P will get sawed in half if that's the case.
So I'll take that.
I'll take those shots.
That would be a complete disaster.
I mean, if you just sort of think about what the impact would be to global GDP if crude got, forget about 350.
to global GDP if crude got, you know, forget about 350.
I mean, if it got $100 lower than that, 200 bucks.
I mean, that's a real disaster for sure.
Slightly less of a disaster for the United States,
but still material.
To put things in perspective,
which I think is kind of interesting,
is it's not just that crude has blown out.
The cracks have blown out too.
So if you take a look at, for example, Singapore jet, right?
So you're just trying to see, okay, what's the impact on airlines,
on air cargo, and so on?
Singapore jet was up 135% when I was looking at it yesterday since the January lows.
That's hugely impactful, as you would expect.
The other thing is that if you take a look at the import price inflation data that we got today, this morning,
that data is trailing, right?
So that's actually before crude spiked.
And all of that was also much higher than the survey.
So month on month, the actuals came in at 1.3.
And the prior month, which had been at 20 bps, got revised upward to 60. So, you know, this is looking
back to before all of this, we were already dealing with some inflation problems. And
I think that's one of the reasons why, you know, the Fed obviously wasn't going to act
even if you had some better resolution going on in the Gulf.
There's not much cause to bring rates in.
And that's one of the reasons I think that we're seeing what's implied as far as rate
cuts has, you know, those expectations have come in materially.
Yeah.
I mean, they've pulled all those rate cuts out and then obviously look at the last couple
weeks like the move index which is obviously the volatility in the bond market I mean it's just been
exploding to the upside is is they they they re-rate uh obviously equities is one and then
and then they start pricing in less rate cuts um you know to potential I think the ECB said was it
yesterday or the day before that they're talking about potentially three hikes now I mean that changes the rate scenario I'm more in the camp
that obviously if if oil can calm down and the Middle East can calm down in relatively short
order obviously oil will have a premium still built in there even if it comes off and maybe
it settles in in the 70s or something like, it's still going to be much higher than where we were before.
The question is, is how much economic damage will be done?
Obviously I'm in the Midwest and Chicago and diesel over here is just right
around $6 now. Um, and I'm just outside.
So cheap. Yeah.
Cheap cheap. You know, I mean, I'm in,
I'm in California is carrying a seven handle closing on eight where I am.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So to that point, like that is going to feed into your point is to the inflation numbers.
The question is, if rates continue, I said this last night, if rates continue higher and oil continues higher, 55% of core CPI is housing with shelter and new and used vehicles. And higher interest rates are
going to impact both of those materially and housing is already slow. So do you, we see the
headline inflation, but obviously the Fed needs to look through the spike in oil, which is obviously
a headwind for the consumer. And then also higher interest rates for the two biggest
components of core CPI would be a negative, in my opinion, that would probably limit how much
core CPI would be able to go higher, because I think it's demand destruction in those two sectors
for core. What do you think about that? Well, I think as far as the housing market,
the housing market, as far as rates is concerned, isn't going to be driven off the short end of the curve.
It's going to come principally from the long end.
So you really should be focusing primarily on the 10-year for that.
We aren't terribly off of where the 10-year was in mid-January, right?
So we were just under four spot three and we're just over four spot three right now.
I think we're probably,
you know, within five basis points of where the 10-year was in mid-January.
And that's what's going to impact the, you know, mortgage rates really more than what's happening at the short end of the curve. But the other side of it is that if we're looking at this with our
equity investor hats on, this isn't what you want to see. You do not want to see the curve
flatten. That's the opposite of what you want to see, right? You want to see it steepen.
So we want lower short-term rates and longer long-term rates indicative of growth.
lower short-term rates, and longer long-term rates indicative of growth.
So, you know, that's an issue.
I will say $70 crude should not be a problem for the economy globally.
I mean, $55 West Texas, which is what we had in mid-December, is very nice.
But, you know, $70 is easily absorbable.
I don't, you know, when you think about how prices for everything else have risen,
crude actually at $70 a barrel is, I hate to say it,
but it's actually relatively cheap.
Right, compared to where it was in 08 when it was peaked at $140,
and that was almost 20 years ago.
$146, yeah ago. 146.
Yeah, 146.
That's crazy.
Actually, the largest crude oil options trader on the NYMEX is a friend of mine.
I actually started that trading operation, Bluefin Trading, when they went into the crude pits and he was in there.
I don't know if it's true, but the rumors were he made nine figures that year.
Michael, how's all this affecting distributions and what you guys are doing?
Well, the distributions are generally going to be positively affected by increases in implied volatility.
And so, you know, that's a positive for us broadly.
I will just quickly offer that WIMAC simply because it's still, you know, working towards
its final rebalancing.
There's a couple issues in that one.
And once it sort of finds its new balance and cadence, that will
probably normalize as well. But people who are watching the distributions probably are observing
that many of them have been much higher because options premiums are significantly higher.
So I think it's a good environment for premium selling.
I think this is something you guys were talking about even before I started to chat on this
conversation. And I agree with it. You know, you should be greedy when others are fearful,
and they are certainly fearful now. I also heard you mentioning some levels for the S&P. Was I hearing you say 6,000 or somebody was, I think?
Yeah, that was me.
I was saying, I thought, I think that big picture,
a nice area that if we were to reset a little bit lower,
I think that 6,000 to 6,100 area is a nice confluence area of support.
You got some good volume profile structure in there as
well. And when you look at, you know, we've been talking about this on Wolf here for the last two,
three months, just about the big names, the mag names that have broken down and continuing to not
lead. And if you don't have those leading, it becomes very difficult for the market to go higher without the big players doing some of the heavy lifting.
You're not going to do it with materials and industrials and staples and some of the smaller names that were rotated in a little bit ago.
So I think, you know, do we have a reflex rally on some resolution of the war, possibly. And then do we see what earnings look
like? I think that's going to be a catalyst for the first quarter. The jobs number, I think,
will be a big catalyst coming up in a couple of weeks here to see where the next direction is.
But to your point, I think that this higher implied volatility market is a great opportunity for premium selling.
And the other thing, I'd love to get your feedback on this, is I think just for all the listeners,
if you're newer to trading options or you haven't been trading options, the actually higher volatility is.
And I'm talking on the index level.
When you're looking at a VIX, it's 35 or 40. It actually, for me as a trader, for an options trader, it gives me the ability to be
more confident that I can go out, I can get wider, I can get further out of the money and sell
premium. Actually, for me, it's less risky than doing it in a low VIX environment because what
are you doing
you're selling volatility hoping for some mean reversion and hoping that volatility comes in
because the vix is not going to stay at 30 40 50 forever it does mean revert at some point so um
what do you what do you think about how would you explain just higher implied volatility as far as
um how that affects trading and and trading and some people fear that because the
moves are bigger, et cetera, if they're newer to trading. Well, you're right, of course. It does
mean that you can do two things simultaneously. One is you can sell strikes that are further out
of the money, as you point out. And the other is you can also, at the same time,
be collecting more for it.
And volatility is a mean reverting process.
Now, it's interesting because if all somebody does
is track the volatility risk premium,
so what is the volatility risk premium at any moment?
That is the difference between the implied volatility in the options market and the realized volatility,
how much the underlying asset is moving around.
And if one only thinks about it this way, something peculiar shows up,
and that is that sometimes you'll see the volatility risk premium actually expands in environments when implied volatility is really low.
And an example of this would be, for example, late 2017, which is the lowest both implied and realized volatility environment I can remember in recent years.
And one of the reasons that that volatility risk premium spreads out is because you get down to a certain level and people just say, you know what, I'm not,
I am not going to sell insurance any cheaper than this. But in December of 2017,
implied volatility in the S&P got to just under, if you can believe this, just under 8%,
if you can believe this, just under 8%, 8%, and realized trailing 30-day got below 4%.
So the volatility risk premium was probably 4%, and realized volatility was almost non-existent.
But to your point, is that a good environment to sell a lot of premiums simply because the market is relatively quiet and therefore you should feel comfortable selling eight vol?
And the answer is, well, no, of course not.
And the reason is because, yes, implied volatility is a mean reverting process, but so is realized.
That is to say that just because things have been quiet
doesn't mean they will remain so indefinitely.
And in fact, in that instance,
it's a really telling example
because volmageddon took place in early 2018
when there was an exchange traded product
that blew up at the time.
It was a big vol selling product.
And everything sort of came back. And the thing is that if you're short a lot of cheap options,
you have more negative convexity. It's very similar to if you buy bonds when
the 10-year rate's at 50 basis points. If rates go up by 1%, your duration is much higher.
That convexity is higher when rates are low.
If rates go from 10 to 11,
they both increased 100 basis points
from 50 basis points to 150.
And from 10% to 11%,
you have 100 basis point increase in rates.
But if you have long duration portfolio,
which one dropped greater in percentage terms when things went against you? And clearly,
it's if you got long fixed income in that low rate environment, your convexity is much,
much higher. In equity options land, we usually refer to that as gamma, right? So that's the convexity you're getting short. So yes, you
absolutely are in a better place when you start selling volatility at much higher numbers,
because if vol reverts, options premiums will drop and the market will calm down.
One other thing is that, you know, when you see the VIX get really elevated, historically, that suggests, and this is why I was asking about that 6,000 level in the S&P, if you sell 10 implied volatility puts in the S&P when it's at an all-time high, that's a very different thing than selling 35 vol in the S&P if it dips down to 6,000
because the 30-, 60-, and 90-day returns for the S&P
typically are well above average if the VIX is well above average.
So what am I saying?
Simply that the VIX spikes in conjunction with market concern,
you know, typically big pullbacks,
and those generally correspond to better 30, 60,
90-day returns going forward for equities.
That was true post-liberation day.
It was pandemic plunge.
I mean, if you go back and you just take a look at a chart of the VIX
and you say, when would I,
if I don't get to look at what the S&P was doing, but you can just say,
I want to go back in time and pick times when I was going to get long the S&P.
Probably everybody on this call right now would say,
well, every single time the VIX got over 40, I'd buy it then.
Right.
Right.
So you don't have to remember exactly when the market low was.
Just look for peak fear.
So, yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense.
The 6,000 level, I can see where you picked that.
It's kind of interesting.
We didn't get into a formal bear market on the Liberation Day pullback.
I think we got to an intraday one.
But a formal bear market, of course, would be a 20% decline,
and we got to just over 7,000 in the S.
So that would suggest 5,600-ish, something like that.
But, I mean, the difference between 5600 and 6000 is is not huge if you're
selling puts you're going to be getting more for them in any case um and you know it's not a not
a disaster to be a little early on in that kind of a situation so yeah um the other the other thing
i was going to ask you so one thing i've done um you know obviously you don't when i see you know
so many people so many comments of people trying to buy puts you know when the vix was 35 the other
day i see oh you know they're buying puts and they're trying to buy protection and it just
always a reminder to everybody for trading options like you don't want to go buy protection when the
house is already on fire it's like you don't buy insurance for buy protection when the house is already on fire. It's like you don't buy insurance for your house when the house is already burning.
You want to buy them in a low, you know, when volatility is lower.
You know, I had said right at the end of the year when vol was down in the 13, 14 handle.
You know, I told everybody on here, I said, look, guys, if you want to hedge your portfolio for the next 90 days or 120 days,
there's not a better time to do so when volatility is low.
This is the time when you want to go out and buy protection to hedge yourself is when volatility is low.
You do not want to do it when the VIX is 25, 30, 40, et cetera, because that is when you're buying it at the wrong time.
But the other strategies you can employ, and this is more of an advanced option strategy.
employ and this is more of an advanced option strategy uh but the two two that you can do is
is obviously broken wing butterfly stuff to try to uh level out some of that vega and then and then
also obviously uh put put ratio spreads is another one where you can try to hedge a little bit and
pick levels um to pick up some of that short volatility on the short option that can help you when you're buying in higher vol.
So, this is kind of interesting.
So, this was a trade that I spotted.
There's been a lot of interesting and unusual trades by institutions recently.
The one that's been getting, I don't know if you guys know who Charlie Gasparino is.
He's, I think, on Fox.
Yes, he was just calling me on the other line just now. And I don't know if you guys know who Charlie Gasparino is. He's, I think, on Fox Business.
Yes, he was just calling me on the other line just now because one of the things he was asking me about
was some unusual activity that probably you guys saw as well
that took place on Monday.
The crude futures sale and the e-mini futures buy that took place at around 6.45 in the morning.
Yeah, before the news.
Yeah, very conveniently timed that.
But another big institutional trade that I saw recently that I haven't seen a lot of people talk about,
but I think it was more important for people to notice this one
was about a week ago, I saw that somebody bought 45,000 S&P May 1st weekly 5,300, 5,200 put spreads
for about $1.28 net. Now, so what's going on in a trade like that? So you've got $100 wide put spread.
They paid $1.28 a contract to get into that spread, laid out just over $5.75 million in premium.
If the S&P were to fall firmly into bear market territory, meaning that it hits that lower put strike, 5,200, which is still above the
post-Liberation Day lows, that $5.75 million bet would be worth $450 million.
77 to 1 is the payoff. So for listeners, right? May 1st expiration, is that what you said?
May 1st expiration weekly, 5,300, 5,200 put spread.
So the trader bought 45,000 SPX, May 1st weekly, 5,300 puts,
and sold 45,000 May 1st weekly, 5,200 puts, net net debit $1.28 a contract, obviously times the multiplier.
So that's $128 per trade times 45,000 spreads.
And then the max value of that is going to be the point difference between the strikes,
which is 5,300 minus 5,200, which is 100 times the multiplier, which is 100, which is 10,000 times the number of times that they traded it, which is 45,000.
That's 450 million. Yeah. And I just looked that up. I was just looking at those strikes. That's
basically that they're buying the five Delta puts and then spreading that off $100 lower.
The interesting thing is I just put a price target. So if you take where we're trading
right now at 6,600 to 5,300, it's about 20% down from where we currently are trading.
Exactly.
It's a tail hedge against a formal entry into a bear market, basically.
And what's interesting about that is that for anybody who's sitting there watching the market get woolly and they see the VIX spike and they're thinking, to your point, oh, I've got to go buy some protection or I've got to bail out of everything. That's not an advisable investment
technique. You're going to overpay for insurance and the chances that it really pays off for you
is not that good. So a spread like this, you can imagine that you just allocated for just for the sake of argument.
You said, okay, well, I'm going to take, I've got a portfolio.
I've got a million bucks in it.
And I'm going to allocate some small amount to that.
It could be, and I'm saying really small, like 25 basis points, 50 basis points, right?
Something like that.
This thing would pay, in the event that the market fell that amount, 77 to 1.
So put differently, if you bought $5,000 worth of those spreads against a million dollar book, and it did go into bear market
territory, that trades 385,000.
38.5% of your entire portfolio.
And that's if the S&P did fall to bear market territory.
So even that tiny allocation, 50 basis points would be too big.
Put differently, that insurance is 25 basis points.
Now, granted, this is not something you do all the time
because that's 25 basis points worth of drag for six weeks, right?
If you do this all the time, you're always carrying a trade like that.
You know, we don't go into bear markets that often.
So if you're going to do that, you know, you're going to be spending, let's see here, that works out to 2.2% of your portfolio in terms of insurance drag each year.
And sometimes when you see those really big S&P trades, that's exactly what it is.
That's a risk manager knocking on the door, tapping somebody on the shoulder and saying,
hey, you've got to hedge this a little bit.
You've got to put some hedges in.
A lot of traders, a lot of PMs are not that interested in spending money that is going to create a drag on performance.
But that's oftentimes what you're looking at.
Yeah, 100%.
But I think that it's a way that everybody listening, you should just sort of think about
these things a little bit more creatively and say, what is it that I'm really concerned about?
If your concern is that this thing turns much, much worse,
and that number that you threw out before for crude, 350, I mean, good God.
Yeah, that's Armageddon, and what's going to happen to equities would be disaster.
So if that's what you're worried about, and then you just say,
okay, well, when do I think such a thing could happen?
Now, an important point about a tail hedge like this, there's two things I would ask people to look at. If you look at that trade for May 1st weekly, it's much less than if you go out to say
early June, end of June, or so on. Those are going to cost you much more. There's something else,
early June, end of June, or so on. Those are going to cost you much more. There's something else,
which is that it's also going to pay more in the event that you have a big drawdown. So,
when you're looking at spreads and you're saying, oh, I want to go out a little bit further in time,
if I could spend, get a payoff of like 77 to 1 out four or five weeks, would I rather go out eight to 10 weeks and have a payoff of 40 to 1?
That 40 to 1 is not entirely real because if you had a really sharp pullback where the market rolls over the course of the next three to four weeks,
that is not going to go to 100% of the distance between the strikes right away.
Right?
A call spread is going to be worth, what, 40% of the distance between the strikes in
the S&P?
So if it goes down to 5,100, that thing is not going to be worth 100 bucks.
It's going to be worth 60.
So you're not even getting the 40 or 50 to 1.
You're really getting 20 to 1.
So that's the reason why when I looked at that, I thought, okay, I see whoever that
trader is and I don't know who it is, but I can see whatever it was that he or she was thinking
of, right? They're looking at that and they're saying, if this thing gets a lot worse, we're
probably going to know within the next six weeks if it is or isn't. And that's what I'm most concerned about.
So I'm going to just put just shy of $6 million on this thing.
And if all hell breaks loose, make close to a half a billion.
Oh, my gosh.
Yeah, well, that's the size of the trade.
What's interesting is the long strike at $ at 5200 is exactly the weekly trend line that's right where it goes to almost almost to the t which
is down 20 you have a nice trend line that sits right there at 5200 so i don't think that's an
accident no it's not exactly it's never an accident at these big levels, huh? Yeah.
No, I mean, nobody's just sitting there like,
I think I'll, you know,
when you're talking about six million out the door and maybe a half a billion in P&L,
if something plays off,
that's not, it's not just throwing darts at a board
at that point.
They're looking at specific levels
and they're saying, okay,
how much time is this
going to take for us to really get to it? And this is just sort of, you know, just a general
educational idea about ways that people can think about the use of options. Because
if you're selling premium, which I think is advisable here, that's what we do after all.
You know, this is, you know, from our perspective, this is the kind of thing that we're looking to capitalize on.
We want people to be more concerned.
We want them to overpay for insurance and we'd like to be the house and sell it to them.
But at the same time, you know, not for nothing, maybe a little tail risk hedge
and ulti, just a small, just a couple of chips from the stack get put on that so that we can
feel good about continuing to sell premium in here. And if all hell breaks loose, you know,
get a little insurance. And that was the trade that I had pointed out to them
as an example of how somebody else seems to be playing this.
And it was a trade that made a lot of sense.
I could look at the trade and say,
I know where they're coming from.
I'm curious if CryptoFit,
do you have any thoughts on this conversation?
Yeah, I do.
This is why I pay the expense ratio for anyone listening.
You know what I mean?
Like, that's my only thought.
I'm learning so much.
I just, Miss Brownhill's laughing.
I like learning from you guys and I've learned the basics, but if anyone listening, if you
wonder why you pay an expense ratio, it is because learned the basics. But if anyone listening, if you wonder why you pay an expense ratio,
it is because of the talent
or this type of knowledge, right?
Like, that's it, man.
I'm not going to lie to you, guys.
I couldn't agree more.
Right, Michael Koeh?
I mean, this is why people pay that expense ratio
because all of this, doing this all on your own can
be can be quite tough and i love that we have will here because will you're just a great product of
being able to do it on your own every single day i mean you posted that pnl chart up top too it was
just amazing to see um so yeah just big for the audience like all these pieces that are being
touched on during this conversation you know you don't have to you don't have to be so
knowledgeable to be able to pick out all these pieces yield max is doing that for you which i
just think is awesome yeah well and it's innovative right because they've been doing this forever like
michael cole always talks about you know you know the 80s and stuff and he's it's not like he's
new to this game but we didn't have we didn't have exposure to be able to buy funds like this, and now with
companies like YieldMax, we do.
So it's kind of cool to just
sit back and, you know, you need to
understand one thing.
If you just take your money and divest it somewhere
else, just know your chart may go
down. Know what you're doing.
You may have to reinvest, but when it comes to
the Iron Condor,
I read that in the book, it's just insanity. I don. You may have to reinvest, but when it comes to the iron condor, I read
that in the book, it's just insanity. I don't want to have to know that. It's great you
I mean, the interesting thing about this space and the other ones that you guys conduct,
though, is that the people that are investing in our funds and other funds too, people understand this stuff a whole lot better.
When I first got into – I wasn't quite in the business in the 80s yet.
Scott Snyder was in the business in the 1980s.
I got into it in the 1990s.
I was still sitting in a classroom in the 1980s. you know, when I first got into the business, there were a lot of people who were trading options on the floor
who knew less than many of the people listening now do.
At least that's the way it looked to me.
I think there were people who had traded stocks
and then options became popular and they're like,
oh, I'll make a market in those things.
And it became a much quantier type of business.
But it is amazing to me.
The analogy I give is I watched my son learning to play guitar.
So much information is available online that it's unbelievable.
I walk by his room and from one week to the next,
the sound that's coming out of there is so much
better. And that is because people can learn at their own pace, but also because people are
collaborating in much the way that you guys are doing it here. Educating yourselves, educating
each other. You know, I think it's, you know, the most important thing for investors is really to understand the products
that they're getting involved in
and I don't know that they've ever understood them better
this is really the forum for that
just because
somebody brings up a level
I bring up a trade
we talk through it
I think that's the most important thing
that everybody can do
and there are a lot of I think that's the most important thing that everybody can do.
And there are a lot of really important opportunities that investors haven't really been able to take advantage of.
But there's been significant democratization.
And that's what the products we have and many others that people are coming up with. That's what these are intended to do is to give people access to different types of investment strategies that historically they just simply didn't have.
You know, my parents, they just had a stockbroker.
Would you say now, like, it's interesting because like, it's so,
it's amazing to see in the last, you know, with,
with your products that have the ability to be able to capture income in an option strategy that's being done by somebody that traditionally you wouldn't be able to get into, which opens 90s when options became more popular. I think it's almost like the narrative
now has changed where not a lot of people, they're making markets and stuff like that,
but they weren't, were they out there really selling premium more readily to collect premium
sellers? I don't know back in the 90s, I wasn't trading them, but what do you say? Was it more
about market making then
and the spreads were wider? They weren't as tight as they are now, et cetera?
Yeah. When I first started trading, we traded in eighths and quarters, three eighths to a half.
In fact, I can remember when they changed options pricing, the minimum increment went down from an eighth, $0.125, 12.5 cents, and they changed them
to what we called teenies at the time, which was a 16th. So it was still more than a nickel wide.
That was the minimum spread that an option could have. Before that, it was an eighth.
There were people doing buy rights and covered calls at that
time. You know, the important thing, I think, there's two important dynamics I would tell people
matter as far as options are concerned. One is the liquidity in the options markets has
significantly improved. The other is that you have more people doing option selling strategies
that can create systematic pressure on options prices, but we also have a lot more people doing
dispersion strategies, which is a form of statistical volatility arbitrage, which is what
I did as a market maker, where you try to get short index vol, for example, and long single
stock vol.
What you're really doing there is you're just trying to play off
the difference between the weighted average volatilities
of the constituent stocks and the index.
Now, that's a fairly crowded trade on the market-making side.
If you are long dispersion, you're long the single stock and short index.
But that's good if you are yield max
or if you are an individual who is selling
single stock premium, because that means that there's two sets of market participants,
each with a differing way to capitalize on the options market. They're trying to trade two
different things. One is trying to trade correlation and dispersion.
The other one is trying to sell the volatility risk premium.
And one is creating the bid for the other.
So I think you couldn't have done what YieldMax is doing now in 1998 because the market wasn't deep enough.
And there was only a handful of people who were running dispersion
trades. I mean, you can actually see there was a letter that was written to the SEC at the time
about payment for order flow. We were one of the first to pay a lot for order flow because we were
trying to buy a lot of single stock options premium so we could sell index. And actually there was a dynamic that was going on that was totally disrupting
things because ETFs were relatively new.
There was a lot of people who started to trade options on the queues.
There was a lot of concern about valuations in going into that sort of tech
bubble.
And so there was a lot of premium in NASDAQ options and the queue options.
And we were trying to capitalize on that
by selling those to buy the single stock ones. So that's a real problem. One other thing that I
think is important, and that is that the rate dynamic, I've talked about this before.
When we went into ZERP, that made these types of strategies,
you know, like buy rights, covered calls,
a little bit less attractive because you had this notion of a Fed put.
So that kind of compressed volatility.
It steeply increased multiples.
So we had this really unusual circumstance where several years in a row, you're getting 18% to 22% returns on the S&P year after year.
That's not the normal state of things.
And I think that rates normalizing from an option selling point of view
is going to suggest that the risk-adjusted performance of short premium strategies,
in my estimation, is going to be better in the next five years than it was in the last five.
Because you're just going to see slightly higher premiums.
And, you know, frankly, I don't think that it's realistic for people to assume
that we're going to continue to get 20- percent year on year appreciation in the S and P.
That's just,
that doesn't stand up historically.
And,
you know,
JP Morgan did a really,
I encourage people to look for this,
you know,
just Google it.
JP Morgan did a forward 10 year return versus P and E scatter plot.
And you can sort of...
Plus or minus 2%, is that where you're going?
Well, yeah, it was not an impressively high number.
Am I going...
Now, I want to make a point about that,
which is that you can look back in history at the data
and it is informative,
but you cannot necessarily draw direct links between what happened in the past and it is informative, but you cannot necessarily draw direct links between what
happened in the past and today. And the best example of this I can provide is that the most
profitable companies today bear no resemblance whatsoever to the degrees and levels of profitability
and growth that I've ever seen in my career before. The kinds of margins, growth, after-tax net income that companies like NVIDIA generate,
one of the reasons that I think the S&P had to play catch-up and had to have these kinds of 20% year-on-year gains
was because if you had asked me in 1998 whether I thought companies could generate, you know, 55% net margins after tax and then grow at 50 to 100% a year on the top line, that was just ridiculous.
Nobody would have believed those kinds of numbers were possible.
You say, how is that possible?
What business could a company be in that could achieve that?
Because the assumption would be that other companies would just jump into whatever it was they were doing.
And margins would come in.
What happened?
They expanded.
Micron, you know, just a couple of years ago, Micron was supposedly in a commoditized business.
And arguably they are.
But for a commoditized business, boy,
they really figured out how to print some money lately.
I mean, memory prices have just been taken off.
So this kind of, this is the equivalent, what we're going through right now is the equivalent of the industrial revolution.
And it could arguably be more impact as far as I'm concerned in terms of human productivity.
And that's what the S&P had to catch up with. really dismal forecast that JP Morgan made saying, oh, we're going to now have, you know,
2%, 3%. I'm not so sure I'm as pessimistic as that. But I also think 20% a year is not realistic.
Yeah, it could certainly be higher to your point. I got two questions for you that I think would be
good for the audience. What is your favorite option strategy that you would say you would go to?
And second question, switching gears just a little bit, what do you think about the
private credit situation, private equity, subprime auto loan delinquencies are higher than they were
in 2008? Just some of the stuff in the credit markets and credit spreads have obviously been widening in the last 60 days now.
I personally don't think it's systemic, obviously, but there definitely seems to get more and more chatter around that topic.
Yeah, so the private credit problem is pretty substantial.
is pretty substantial.
We're looking at probably,
there's like $2 trillion
in global private credit at the moment.
And many equity market pullbacks
are precipitated by credit market issues.
There's plenty of good reasons for this.
I often like to say that equity traders look up
and credit traders look down.
The credit traders are always looking for cracks in the ice that they're standing on,
which makes some sense because if you buy a bond, you're basically selling puts.
You have a defined amount that you can make, but you could lose all of your investment.
So they're going to be more sensitive to it.
So I would say that that's something to keep an eye on.
The auto loan section is something I've been looking at for quite a while
because it's looked pretty grim for at least a year now, right?
So we've seen high auto loan delinquencies, subprime in particular.
We've seen consumer auto loan delinquencies, subprime in particular.
We've seen consumer savings also low.
What we really have there is kind of a bifurcated consumer.
The upper end consumers are fine.
Their situations have actually been improving because they are net owners of assets.
They have lots of stocks. Stocks have generally been doing well for the last owners of assets. They have lots of stocks.
Stocks have generally been doing well for the last couple of years.
They're more likely to also have some crypto assets and things like that,
which obviously not great for 2025.
But in general, this is a group of people who have done remarkably well. I was on vacation over Christmas in Hawaii,
and I remember thinking at just how
much shopping was going on, Christmas shopping, and I was thinking, boy, there really are two
different worlds. You walk around...
Very K-shaped economy.
Well, yeah. I mean, you walk around Waikiki, and there's like a Rolex boutique every 500 feet,
and every one of these places was just packed. And then, you know, you
take a look at how some of the, you know, the lower end consumer places are doing, and it was
really quite miserable. And that's because those people don't own assets, they instead are paying
the price of inflation. And as rates went up, as used car prices shot up during the pandemic,
basically, they're getting squeezed from every possible angle. So I think that is a problem,
but I'm not concerned that it is a huge problem. If you're interested in the subprime auto
business, look at a stock like Carvana, right? Because that's really what Carvana is. You know, people think of Carvana as a used car dealer,
but what they really are is a business that is designed
to sell financial products, right?
That's where most of their money comes from.
It's one of the reasons why people would look at them and say,
how is it possible that Carvana can sell cars
for at or below average prices and they pay more?
I actually sold a car to Carvana.
When we moved from Austin, Texas back to San Francisco,
I had a pickup truck in Texas, as everybody in Texas does.
It's kind of the law.
You have a house in Texas, you got to have a pickup truck too.
And I
sold it to Carvana. I'd had the thing
for four or five years.
I sold it for $4,700
less than I paid for it new
four years earlier.
Oh, wow. Yeah.
That's huge.
Yeah, it's ridiculous.
I mean, now I didn't realize where these things were going to go
because if I had, I probably would have hung on to it,
even though there was no place to drive around in Marin County, California,
where I live now.
Nobody has a crew cab long bed diesel truck around here.
Common enough in central Texas, but really uncommon here. Common enough in Central Texas,
but really uncommon here.
But I was really dumbfounded
that they would pay as much as they did for it.
And it was not until I
really understood what their business
model was about. The Garcias are
basically,
they are...
And it is one hell of a
good business.
So, yeah, I think there is something to keep an eye on.
And I don't know that it's completely over because we've only seen the first couple of markdowns.
I think it was BlackRock that said, we just had our first loss ever in our private credit fund.
And Clive Asnes, who's the founder of AQR, if you guys know who he is, he's a smart guy, University of Chicago mathematician.
AQR is a big hedge fund in Greenwich.
And he said, no, it's not the first one.
It's just the first one you actually were honest about.
Because these things are not mark-to-market.
Yeah, how do you know what assets are really worth when you,
you know,
it's,
it's obviously like,
okay,
now we got to bring them to market and see what they are worth and what's in
there.
And while we thought it was at 90%,
well,
it's actually at 50%.
Yeah.
So those are all lower.
And the proof is the proof is this people are asking to redeem and the
gates are down.
Right. Yeah. So if you cannot, yeah, if you cannot pull your money out, Proof is this. People are asking to redeem and the gates are down. Right?
Yeah.
So if you cannot pull your money out, then they're not marked to market.
Because if they were, they could just simply sell.
Correct.
So there's not a question about whether these things are correctly marked.
They absolutely are not.
Absolutely not. a question about whether these things are correctly marked they absolutely are not absolutely not and i think to your point to that point the biggest risk or the bigger risk i would
say is once the war is over and you know this gets let's say it gets settled and oil calms down a
little bit bond volatility calms down a little bit i bond volatility calms down a little bit. I think the risk in
the marketplace is simply that is private credit going to get fixed overnight? No. And the other
thing is what really happens in the jobs market for the rest of the year? And does that continue
to soften? Those are the two risk factors that I see is private equity, private credit,
yield spreads continue to widen.
Even if the market does bounce back on some more resolution, those two risks, I think,
are still out there that will not go away is the jobs market and private credit.
Yeah, the jobs market, the revisions we've seen have been negative. So that's not great.
The inflation revisions we've been seeing have also, I say negative, but what I mean is negative news, but positive, meaning they're higher.
So the jobs numbers have been revised lower. Inflation numbers have been revised higher.
And all of that precedes what's going on right now.
I do think that if we can somehow see our way out of this mess in the Middle East without
it worsening significantly and oil does stabilize, like I said, I think 70 is a very doable number
for the global economy. Yeah, we just don't want it to be north of 90 to 100 for a 60 to 90 period
because that really starts to impact the consumer even
even more heavily into the summer months yeah i mean well you to give some perspective to this
consider that i am looking at gas prices right i don't even drive that much but it just it sticks
in my craw you know i mean my car happens to take premium and I'm thinking, I don't want to spend seven bucks a gallon
to drive here or there or wherever.
And if I'm making that determination,
then a lot of other people will be too.
That's my guess.
You know, if I'm sitting there saying,
okay, if we're going to go to the grocery store,
everybody's got to tell me what they want now
because I don't want to have to go back and forth
because I don't want to fill up the Land Rover at $7 a gallon,
which is what it costs me right now.
It's ridiculous, but that's California, so that's its own thing.
But it does illustrate the point.
Hey, CryptoFit, did you want to get back in here?
And then we'll get some thoughts.
Yeah, this is a Moonshots podcast and I love it.
This is exactly where we went with this thing.
And I couldn't be happier to have Michael and Will talk about it.
But Will, you mentioned the K-shaped economy.
It's the second time I've heard this in 48 hours, once from my other job.
And it was interesting because what you guys keep talking about is what Michael's talking about when it comes to, you know, I don't want to drive to the grocery store twice.
But with this innovation, right, we should on its way, and shop at Aldi.
Like, is that going to be the catalyst where people are going to figure out that we now
live in a K-shaped economy and it does not have to change?
There is no more middle ground because this jobless epidemic is going to continue to continue and everyone knows it we're just kind
of fluffing the numbers up right now but okay i don't know you guys have lived through more more
of these strange times than i have in the market i mean because this is getting insane right yeah i
i think to a little bit to your point is when, you know, if we're talking about the, obviously the adoption of AI and what does it do to jobs? I mean, I always go back to obviously like, you know, the internet when everybody said that, oh, it's going to take jobs, the internet's going to change the world and you're hoping that that productivity will increase because
of ai and sure are there going to be job displacements absolutely there will be especially
you know small entry-level uh jobs that that but there will be new businesses and new things that
are created because of it or different sectors of the economy that will need employment so
because of it or different sectors of the economy that will need employment.
So I think it's a big unknown.
Yeah, not to cut you off, but name one.
Because I look at the Moonshot dude saying,
we've got seven years until the best surgeons bought,
and it costs $1 to run the surgery.
Where are these entry loans?
No more Uber.
Is this the means to the universal high income or
you know i that's the that's the two trillion probably the 100 trillion dollar question that
we no one knows the answer to yet and i think that over time i think that eventually it's
probably there will still be jobs in the economy so will be there. There's just no way we just go to massive job losses.
We have UBI everywhere and we just stay in this, you know, I just I don't think that's going to be the case.
At the turn of the century in the 1900s, if you look at what most people did for a living, it bore no resemblance whatsoever to what everybody did for a living 100 years later.
First of all, most of the people
who worked in the United States at that time worked in agriculture. We were a farming country,
and as we industrialized, then you had people working in factories.
And we don't do any of those things anymore. Nobody makes buggy whips, and there's nobody who does steam engine repair,
and there's very few people working in the fields.
So this is going to be a profound, profound shift.
That's why I believe that the combination of AI and robotics,
if we look at the most optimistic trajectory or path
that that thing could take,
it could be the biggest,
most profound shift in human productivity ever. That is the way I look at it. There are other
ways this could turn out. But, you know, if we'd like to be an optimist, I think we all would.
That's the more optimistic path.
And that could change life for everybody on the planet.
Ms. Roundhill, did you want to pop in with anything before we get wrapping up here?
Feel free to take a few minutes, too, if you have some questions for Michael Coe.
All good.
Yes, please.
First of all, CryptoFit, I was not laughing at you.
I was just laughing in general because, yes, this is why we pay that expense ratio.
As far as AI is concerned, if you're concerned about nobody having jobs,
my answer is just to be in the market and high-income ETFs
because, you know, if the companies are making the money, then we may as
well make our own universal basic income. So, yeah, I just, it seems like everybody is very
concerned about this market right now. I just finished making a YouTube video about our chances
for recessions. That feels like this entire conversation
has been about today. And Mr. Ko, tomorrow, could you go over some of the capabilities
of the Bloomberg Terminal? Because I heard it's very expensive, and I would just like to know
what kind of questions I can ask you from week to week that are exclusive to the Bloomberg capabilities.
So, yeah.
So if anybody's interested, Bloomberg Terminal starts at about $3,000 a month, basically.
I have had a...
I've used the Bloomberg...
They used to be a standalone machine.
They looked kind of like the second generation Apple Macintosh computers.
I've used a Bloomberg for a bunch of stuff basically since the late 1990s, but I've had
a Bloomberg Anywhere Terminal. I just came on a 20th anniversary of that. I've been squabbling
with Bloomberg because they were trying to bill me for two licenses. So I'm about to settle with
them on one of these.
But a lot of the information that's available
on a Bloomberg terminal is available elsewhere.
Most people who use it
probably scratch no more than 5% of its capabilities.
I am happy whenever we do live things with video,
which I will be doing tomorrow.
Ask your questions in advance, though,
because we have to run those through compliance,
you know, to show people whatever you can get out of it.
But I actually suspect that this is another thing
that's going to get democratized.
Sorry to Michael Bloomberg, but good news for everybody else
is that, you know that a lot of the
things that you can pull out of it, I can pull a live map right now of what's going on in the Gulf.
I can see every ship that's there, whether it's at anchor or underway, and whether it's under
sail or under power, like all of that kind of stuff, who owns the ship, what the ship is carrying,
where it's going, anything that's on AIS, I can see that.
That's just one example.
Every security.
So there's a lot that the thing can do.
But the good news for everybody listening is
you probably don't need to spend $3,000 a month
to get a Bloomberg, which, by the way,
I think comes with a minimum one-year contract.
And $3,000 does not get you real-time prices either.
It's extra for live market data, believe it or not.
So there's a lot that can be done there, but you don't need it.
Most people do not need it.
One of the reasons we use it is also because this is how a lot of people
on the street trade.
So you communicate with other traders, with other desks,
with other institutions, with other desks, with other institutions,
every major bank. So if I want to get in touch with Goldman's trading desk, now I'm not actually
doing the trading, but I can see the blotter. So it's, you know, I can see all of our positions.
I can see everything we're working. These are not things that the average retail person needs to be able to do because you're not collaborating with your portfolios
across big teams.
We have 20 some odd people who are on the trading desk
at any moment,
any one of whom can grab an order and do something with it.
That's not a capability that an individual needs
so you don't need to pay for it.
But I'm happy to, if anybody asks a question, send it to the YieldMax ETF's X-handle or to me.
And if there's something you want to look up, I'm happy to do it.
So that could be securities prices.
It could be models, financial statements, records, filings, all of that stuff.
You can trace it.
Supply chains.
So, for example, I can see who the biggest customers of any business are
and who their biggest customers are.
I can see whether those businesses are in distress or not.
So, if you have a company that depends very heavily on one big customer
and that customer is delinquent, that's a risk, right?
So those are all the kinds of things that you can imagine any institutional
holder of securities would be very interested in.
Basically the reason for that is that every single time an investor or a
trader who uses the terminal says, you know what I wish I knew?
They typically will just contact Bloomberg and say,
can you add the following features?
And they often do because they charge so much for this.
They want to make sure that the product becomes stickier and stickier over time.
And it has.
I mean, there's a reason I've used one of these things for as long as I have,
as much as I hate paying the bill.
I estimate I probably spent a million bucks.
I probably personally spent a million dollars on my Bloomberg license over the years.
And I really would rather have had the million in my pocket, I can tell you.
But it's a powerful tool.
Some great stuff, crew.
This is a phenomenal conversation.
Ms. Roundhill, you have anything else? Yeah and and this has really nothing to do with much but i would have thought that title
would have reimbursed you for that license or whatever you're looking for at the time
well title is title is covering the license for title but they are not covering the license or the contract that I had on a standalone basis
myself. And this was where I got into a dispute with Bloomberg, because as it happens, you cannot
run more than one serial number or one instance of the terminal on one machine at a time.
So I said, how on earth can you guys be billing me if I have this other license, right? This is where we got into the
squabble. So they basically said, we want to hold you to your year contract. And I said,
I can't even use it. And I'm already paying you via title for another one. So they relented on
that. And then they said, okay, fine, you're out. You don't have to sign it. First, they actually
suggested, why don't you buy another computer?
They actually said, get another machine so you can run two instances of Bloomberg side-by-side,
as if that makes any sense at all.
But then they said, you know, all right, just pay us $6,000 and we'll let you out.
And I said, I'm not doing that.
And now I think I'm about to settle with them for $3,000.
$3,000 for something I didn't even use because I had another instance.
But I still love the thing.
I still love using it.
Great stuff, crew.
Michael Cole.
Always a pleasure having you on.
Love having Will on, too.
Listening to you guys go back and forth.
Will is a high-level trader on our show,
so just love to hear you guys go back and forth on everything going on right now because it's craziness, and a lot of people are just, I mean,
we're living in uncertainty right now, so a lot of people are just struggling,
and it's nice to hear you guys go back and forth
and talk about what's actually impactful here for this market.
So just really appreciate you, Michael.
You got any last closing thoughts you want to say for the crew here?
I always enjoy our conversations, as you know, because I've been having these conversations with you guys even since before title.
That wasn't coming on all the time back then, but joined you guys from time to time even beforehand um and i appreciate everybody's
questions and coming back to have this conversation because i hope you find it helpful but i always
find it very helpful to hear you know what it is people are thinking about so thanks absolutely
yeah big shout out to you make sure you guys in the audience are following Michael Coe if you aren't already.
We do this show every single Wednesday at 12 p.m. Eastern.
So put it on your calendars.
Make sure you're here for the next one.
And always feel free to bring your questions.
Even if you're in the audience, you might not be on stage.
It's totally okay.
You can always throw those questions in the comments, and we will get over to those.
But without further ado, that's going to do it.
For the day, we're all going to be hopping on the YouTube stream,
which is live.
Emperor Door is officially home and on the live stream.
So we're going to head over there.
But big shout out to all the panelists that joined us.
Shout out to the YieldMax account as well.
I know it's not actually up here on the spaces right now,
but make sure you guys go follow that YieldMax account as well.
Stay up to date with all the distributions and any news that's coming out. So love everybody. We'll see you over on the
YouTube stream. And if not, we'll see you guys back on Spaces bright and early in the morning.
Peace out, everybody. Thank you.
