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Global markets crashing
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 0:59:57Space Recording
Short Summary
In a turbulent market, Bitcoin and Ethereum face significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping to $76,000 and Ethereum to $1,400. Amidst this, discussions on tariffs and trade policies are heating up, with notable figures like Stan Druckenmiller voicing concerns. Meanwhile, Codex secures $16 million for stablecoin infrastructure, signaling ongoing interest in crypto innovations despite market volatility.
Full Transcription
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the modern market where every day we discuss everything
to do with the modern market. That is the crypto market, the NFT market, and whatever
else is going on with tariffs, because that is the main event. Once again, we'll be getting
into the market crash that is taking place right now. Trump has been defending the tariffs,
saying that sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something we'll explain what that means and all the reaction to it in the process bitcoin's down
eight percent to 76k eth is down 16 on the day that's a 24-hour move to 1.4k so is down 15
also 24-hour move went beneath a hundred dollars now has just ticked back up as part of that we'll
also be talking trump's announcement that he wants parity in trade with EU plus potentially reparations for past trade imbalances. And the
legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller comes out against tariffs saying that he does not support
tariffs exceeding 10%. We'll get into all of that and more as usual with the general discussion on
the market and all the implications of what we are
discussing but just a reminder friends before we do that nothing that we say here is financial
advice this market is very risky and it's going down a lot too at the moment so we don't know
anything for sure i don't know if trump knows everything for sure either at the moment so
please do your own research use your own judgments come to your own conclusions and uh be safe be safe out
there with this stuff uh with that out of the way legendary it is monday it's the 7th of april how
are you doing how you feeling gm jim we are part of history never seen a two-day market crash like
this i think we have a ton of data and stats prepared for the show. I sound way too excited given the state of the market,
but it is historical.
We've never seen anything like that,
so it's going to be interesting to get into that.
And as you said, probably one of the shows
where we really, really need to reiterate the fact
that we don't know anything for sure
and nobody knows anything for sure.
So many people are saying that the models are not working for the chaos that we're seeing
right now.
So just take really everything with a massive, massive pinch of salt that we are saying and
discussing on the show.
Absolutely.
We've got a bunch of other people, kind of prominent traders on the timeline, sharing
their ideas.
The one thing to note from it will be
i think everyone is saying different things and a lot of people are owning up to being like look
look guys this is not this is above our pay grade now we just don't know how to participate in the
market as with this set of facts in particular talking of a historic moment though legendary
i don't know brett if you saw the youtube comment on astro on friday where you know i think legendary what he's living to is correct it's like it is quite historic
there's like this is an unprecedented unprecedented down movement and certainly the policies that
they're pursuing have not been tried in a very very long time someone in the youtube comments
when we were talking about e because we were like delaying the tariff conversation I don't know if you saw this comment it was just like what the fuck are you guys talking about
this is like a historic move down to get on to the tariff conversation did you see that uh I didn't
but it makes me feel like what what stat was like getting back at where it's like you know
Funky and I were like doing the stoic thing I'm like guys i i can't spend energy on it and he's like guys that's ridiculous to say given the context of
what's actually going on in the movements that's happened in the market um i actually still kind
of have that position where like i get it i sympathize it like i i'm glad you two are here
to help us like navigate this stuff because like i don't have the the context to even add to this
story to just like numbers are going down like it's beyond me
i'm going to continue to like operate within my within my bubble i will say that um you know
you're talking about the price right we're trying to like 14 1500 i think legendary you probably
remember this whenever i had those stink bids in place for eth and it was at like 1500 1600 i was
like hoping for that spike down because
of the liquidation
cascades I was kind of hoping for.
When did you put them on?
It was probably still like $2.
It was like $1,900.
In that range, I think it was oscillated. I think it spiked
down in like $1,800.
And then went back to $2,900.
Yeah, and it was starting to do that stuff.
I mentioned to him in that conversation,
I want those prices if it goes there within the next two days.
I don't want those prices if they go there in the next two weeks, two months, whatever.
This is that.
I took them off, thankfully.
I'm glad you led with prolific traders.
Clearly, I'm one.
I foresaw this.
I pulled those bids out.
I do not have any more ETH than I did at that point in time.
I just have a bunch of USDC.
So like, you know, now maybe I'll start buying some shit
because like now I'm there and I can actually start evaluating.
It's cheaper than what I was even going to get with my stink bids.
Interesting.
So when we're talking about like how to potentially take advantage i think
we're going to go in that direction towards the end of the show so curious on your thoughts
there bread funky your hand is raised welcome to the stage my friend any early reflections early
ways you want to set up the conversation today we've got a lot to get into a lot to try to cover
how's uh how are things your side gm i'll just be very brief i'm still with bread on being stoic
of course i empathize with others right like because again this is all stuff that's beyond
our control but i wanted to share a quick story because i'm probably the only oldest person in
the room to remember this i was 12 years old in 1987 and i remember my dad coming home one day
that that particular day black monday when this all happened and he was distraught and i remember
asking him what happened and he said theraught. And I remember asking him what
happened. And he said, the worst day ever on the stock market in my lifetime happened today.
And the reason I share this story is because we're now entering territory to stats is broader
point about how historic this is, where everyday average people are starting to pay attention and
be like, what the hell is going on? Because this is not, you know, like 8% of like
the people in the world own 90% of the stocks or something crazy like that, right? It's all the
very wealthy that own all of this. But when it's getting to this point where it's making headlines
and it's freaking people out who are just everyday folks, this is a different kind of territory and
waters that we do not tread in very often, generational to say the least. So I'm interested
for today's conversation. Yeah. And it was very interesting one one stat on that because it's
not part of the main conversation either way coming from jp morgan last thursday saying that
retail investors bought 4.7 billion dollars in stocks on thursday which was the highest level
over the past decade so definitely true that retail is noticing that something is going on
in people where some people at least are buying
that is going to be something that's interesting to to watch as this unfolds right like the access to like financial instruments has been democratized heavily over the last five years right that the
proliferation of options trading and whatever else like you know you have your applications now that
instead of going through a brokerage like there's still brokerages but like you can quickly buy stocks through like nine different apps.
Like I can do it on a PayPal just as easily as I can send you $5, right?
So like seeing the ability for the actual market to react, like the average person within
the market to react is going to be faster these days.
So like, you know, something worth monitoring to see how they behave.
I like it. Good setup for the see how they behave i like it um
good setup for the day let's get into it as usual starting with the price action of both the majors
and some of our favorite meme coins getting into bitcoin first it is down almost seven percent in
24 hours uh it's at 77k now i think it went down as low as let me check for you. Went down as low as 74,
I think just ticked under 75. Uh, so bounce a little bit already up at 77 now, 77.3.
It is down 16% on the day. Uh, it's just hovering beneath 1.5 K down 17% on the week. So all of that
moves basically over the last 24 hours, hours xrp is also down 14 to
one dollar 80. solana is down 15 to 100 went as low as i think 94 95 is ticked back up just a
touch getting into the meme coin side of things we have doge down 15 at around 14 cents pepe is down 13 trump is down 14 bonks down 11. as usual well bread you know
you're looking at the market what's far coin doing it's always the most volatile where are we at so
you think on the red day it's down more than everything else no it's got to be up i bet it's got to be up it's the it's the counter trend well it is today uh
it's up 1.6 percent in the face of all of this market stuff and on the last seven days it's up
18 so do with that information what you will i don't know what to do with it interestingly spx
is also up um four percent in the last 24 hours and up 15 on the week can you go back and look at hype i want to
see i like i listened to jeff do an interview like with all the recent drama of it's got to be a top
whatever right um yeah hype is down nine percent to ten dollars thirty it's around down almost 20
on seven days so a little bit more than the others down but not this is one i want to
maintain awareness of i think i think in an environment like if we're going to pull ourselves
out of all this shit right like i think hype if it maintains its position as like the place to go
for like perpetrating activity whatever um i think it'll be the one that calls out first or one of
the one of the better ones to call out so i think i have no exposure to it so like it's one i want
to gain exposure to so i'm gonna keep an eye out on it interesting i'm gonna come back to you on that in a second
bread if you watch the interview because that was an interview i wanted to watch so i'd be curious
for your learnings um pengu is down 12 as well whiff is down 11 i'd say broadly that's the kind
of region you're looking at here on all the memes double digit uh down is what I would say trying to pick out anything else that's
interesting but nothing in particular to be perfectly honest getting into the main headlines
themselves we've got the market crash continuing as you mentioned if you're just joining us Trump's
defending the tariff saying that sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something that has
caused the sell-off that we've seen in crypto.
Legendary is going to talk about how it's affecting the rest of the stock market too.
Nothing has been spared really.
Trump announced he wants parity in trade with the EU and reparations for past trade imbalances as well.
It's a little bit of a throwaway comment that he made in an interview.
So you never know how much weight you need to attach to those types of comments, but
we'll touch on it a little bit more later. Legend Stan Jocken Miller came out against tariffs uh quite a few prominent
people were coming out kind of suggesting at this point all right guys let's let's stop this now uh
you've had your fun it's about time to row this back now and do not go through with what you're
saying you're trying to go through however uh scott besant did uh an
interview with tucker carson i think it might have been on friday but i watched it over the weekend
um kind of indicated that this is you know this is the plan i'll be walking us through some of the
learnings there and the takeaways he also said as part of that interview that bitcoin is becoming
a store of value um as he just before he then went
on to speak about gold quite a lot and how why he thinks that's an important store of value as well
um getting into some other notable price action bear bear change down 24 to four dollars 30 with
so much activity and positivity around what's going on there yeah i don't know if there's
anything specific to to note there it's just everything's getting hit at the moment that's maybe got hit a little bit harder than everything
else legendary is anything going on on the nft side i would bet yes because of such volatile
moves in eth so what do we need to know you would be correct everything is done on the nft markets
as well board apes uh which traded at 15 ETH last week,
are down to 13.7 ETH.
Pudgies have fallen under 9 ETH even,
sitting at 8.9 ETH.
Azookis are down to 2.44 ETH.
The one collection,
which is doing pretty, pretty well, to be honest,
we mentioned it on the show,
SteadyTeddies are up to 177 bearer.
That makes sense.
That's just logic.
It is.
Also bearer being down 25% in one day.
That doesn't impact them too much. They might be down
7.5% over the last 24 hours.
However, they're up 54% over the last
seven days when they
came out at Mint. We reported on them
that Minters were up 9x
at a 100-ish bearer floor,
and that almost has doubled again.
Also taking a quick look at CryptoPunks,
they are holding up very well in ETH terms,
still at 42.6 ETH floor.
However, that is now translating to 63k USD.
That is starting to get to a nice price right depending on how you price them yeah
well assuming you're pricing them in dollars you don't really get punks for less than 50 i don't
think or at least that's been the case beforehand uh obviously it's tracking like the eth price
being low is very bad for punks even though people know to try
kind of price them in dollars now i think it still doesn't help like this is always a bit of a run
as people uh as eth is going up and people are feeling more wealthy they're very happy to spend
it as it goes up but you know as as it goes down the wealth effect is not there so um kind of
attracted prices one thing i've
noted though on the crypto punk floor those it's not easy to find if you want something specific
and you want something that you specifically like you have to go at least 1.5x the floor if not 2x
um to really get to things which are either slightly more unique or something that might
uh aesthetically pleasing yeah like if you're looking to match,
like I was trying to match my penguin with the eye mask with a,
with another one with a punk with an eye mask and it's like, it's too expensive.
It was way, way above floor. So I think that's something to note there,
but as you say, very attractive prices now for punks.
Okay, so that's the NFT side of things.
What is going on in the rest of the market?
If anything, you might have noticed in the snapshot today
when I researched and wrote that and published it,
I didn't even bother with very many other pieces of news
because it feels like there's just a bit of a standstill.
If you're a team right now, think about it it why would you come out with news at the moment when it's going to
get completely overshadowed by everything that is going on from the by you know instigated by the
most famous person in the world producing like headline news every single day so i can see why
teams are taking this approach just a couple of bits from around the space. Lenschain announced SocialFi mainnet was now live.
I think this is by the team,
like an adjacent team to the Aave group.
They're trying to build SocialFi out in a Web3 way.
So that's interesting to note.
Codex, this was an interesting one.
This one brought to my attention.
Codex announced a $16 million raise led by Dragonfly
to build vertically integrated stable coin infrastructure we've spoken about plasma
before which is backed by some very big people including uh angel investors like kobe uh the
tether team are very much behind it paolo is involved so that's like a stable coin chain, which people are quite excited about.
Now we have an alternative one, the Rays led by Dragonfly to build an integrated stable
coin infrastructure.
So I think that's pretty important too, seeing a lot of dollars going into stable coin chains
or stable coin infrastructure.
So that's interesting to note.
And then finally, the SED determined that fully
reserved liquid dollar-backed stablecoins are not securities. That was announced by David Sachs
on Twitter at some point over the weekend. So those are the only other bits I could find that
I thought were relevant over the weekend when I come to you boys. Before we get into the main
stuff today, what's either catching whether
it's anything there whether it's something else catching your attention maybe bread i want to
come to you in a second about the hyperliquid interview you saw some kind of intrigue from
your takeaways from that but legendary first what's anything else catching your attention
or anything from there yeah maybe on the stable coin side of things, Brian Pellegrino, CEO, founder of Zero Labs, has talked about the current market situation and, any of you worried about stablecoins de-pegging?
Is that something you've been thinking about not on your radar at all?
How are you feeling about this personally?
I am at this moment in time not really concerned about my stablecoin holdings
because there's no real reason to be concerned about them.
The only thing obviously that's bothering me is,
as I'm pricing everything in euro because I pay my taxes and my shit and everything in euro
is that the dollar is getting weaker and weaker.
But no systemic worry on my end about stable coins.
What about you guys?
Yeah, zero for me.
So when you say stable coin, I guess it's worth saying there are different kinds,
some of which are not necessarily even
stable coins. So for the, I have two responses. One, when stuff starts to break, when you see
moves this violent, I always just want to think holistically about my portfolio. Like where are
my, where are my pain points? Where are my risk points? And I think one of the things I thought
yesterday was, okay, I think on the stable coin side, on the pure stable coin side, I think I'm okay.
And I'm, I'm comfortable with USDC.
I'm comfortable with tether and things like that.
Athena obviously being one of the newer synthetic dollars, not a stable coin,
although it is treated like a stable coin, synthetic dollar is newer.
It is typically best when in risky risk on markets because that's when the yield is
best and that's why people are happy to hold it um and they'd run all these models to make sure
that look even in times when things go worse we should be okay they'd run all these models before
they've shared that and so far up to this point i mean it's not we've experienced multiple drawdowns at this point and they've kind of come through that with flying
colors every single time basically and so that would be the one thing where as i'm holistically
assessing my portfolio just like okay i have a reasonable exposure to um usde so just like just
checking in there to see if it's all working as as it's supposed to
making sure that the people who are redeeming all stable coins is it all working as it's supposed to
if it is no problem if it isn't then you know you double click on it but that would be my one
my only point to be honest yeah i think yeah you have like two buckets right like i think back to the history of when
staple coins have been iffy um for me as like a holder of coins i remember doing the usdc trade
when it hit like 80 cents right and that was exogenous stuff right it was it was the banks
that were that were utilized by circle were the ones that were getting attacked right so like
things were starting to shut down like and um because of that people are starting to freak out and get out of out of usdc
which almost causes dpeg but it was fine right and then you have like the stuff that's within
the ecosystem right you have the algorithmic algorithmic stable coins right the tether or not
tether um whenever it was luna luna's stable coin and then you have uh some of these other uh other stable coins like like you
know we're talking about synthetic dollars out of you know which i think has been a little bit
more tested recently so i don't and unless we get like some massive which we might actually
with these price movements some massive liquidations which force people to to like
violently move prices which then can potentially have some teetering effects to on-chain stable coins or just on-chain
manipulated coins, algo coins or yield-bearing coins, then yeah, it might be something to keep
an eye out just like B-Check is. But I'm mostly positioned in USDC. So for me, I'm totally
comfortable, especially with the friendly regulation framework that's coming towards that stuff.
I don't anticipate anything that is like before exogenous to our industry getting attacked to then like go after the actual backing of the stable coins that are on chain with Circle.
So I'm comfy.
Okay.
I think that's helpful. I think we, you know, in a, on a day when all this, all the headlines are maybe slightly quieter this week,
I think we'll start to have these conversations more about like, look,
how are we responding personally with our portfolios and like how we think
about things. We'll try to do that a little bit today as well towards the end.
But in general, I think that's a good question. Legendary, just like, you know,
that's something that came to mind.
We'll want to deal with that as the week goes on as well um but to the point what i get to legendary is going
to take us through all the tarot stuff in a sec but before we get there brad imagine you watch the
hyper liquid interview with jeff over the weekend i agree with you that hype is something
you that hype is something what do i think on this i think if the new set of um protocols
well no i'll rephrase that if there's going to be more success coming out of crypto in a time when
all of these regulations are changing there's never been more criticism and skepticism about the way that tokens are launched
and the value attributed to them like all of these bc coins go down all of these other types of coins
go down it seems like it's very very difficult to attribute value to them i think it's very important
for the future set of teams who are building that this more recent set of teams something like
athena something like hyperliquid who've come out and been successful and found a way to demonstrate
value to people that they are, that they continue, that they are able to continue
to demonstrate that value prop.
So I'm curious what you noticed and I'm kind of watching hype as one of those
teams as well.
What did you notice in the interview?
What did you think was important?
Why did you get interested in the ecosystem?
Honestly, it's more of a product focused vision
and like the environment we're in, right?
So it's very clearly shown itself
to be a very strong product within our industry, right?
It captures basically like it's not nonstop
eating into the perps volume
of basically all other products within our ecosystem.
Right. So it's showing to be sticky for the actual users prior to like this.
I'll even say exogenous to them. Like this is just like broad market stuff that's drawing down everyone.
Prior to that, there was a FUD spike around like the recent events where the HLP was getting intact.
Right. They're actually revolting all this stuff.
And then, you know, the actual environment that we're in right now,
or like what crypto is good for is fucking trading, right?
Like it's just swapping tokens is what everyone is drawn to this industry for.
So I just thought it was, they held up pretty well to some attacks.
They're getting better at it.
They're showing to be resilient.
Some people saw what was happening and go oh my god they're a centralized platform
and they're gonna like steal my money if i put it in what i saw was that like damn these boys
are not gonna lose any money um right like someone tried to attack them they quickly stepped in and
rectified the situation ended up coming away with a profit right it's like it went from down 12 mil to like up 700k um like you know what that like cz was doing something a lot uh akin to
that with bnb back in the day right like they would have hacks scams whatever because it has
like eight validators on that chain they fucking locked it down and no like they were able to
recover some of those funds so for me i saw it as like well if they were able to recover some of those funds. So for me, I saw it
as like, well, if they're going to step in every time there's a massive exploit or something that
is like heavily leaning against them, that's cool. The product's good. The market is down. And like
once speculation comes back, right, it's going to come back strong in the platforms that are actually
pretty good at speculating, right? Which would be them. They list stuff early. They have a lot of
good. So it's just, that's why it's something i want to watch the interview itself was mostly around the structure of the platform
and some of the misunderstandings that jeff believes is um um out there for the protocol
one he kind of defended the like oh we're actually a little more decentralized and everyone says
everyone thinks it's just me like running the validators but we actually have 16 validators
now to talk about the hyper evm side of the house which is like they're just like we have this really performant really
profitable side of the business which is hyper core right it's all cool it's doing great high
volumes like i said it's eating into most perps of everyone else and then hyper evm which is their
programmable side is super fucking slow i've commented on that it's kind of shocking how
slow it is and he's like it's not meant to be as performant as it's just meant to open up programmability to this hyper performance
side of the house that we have i still think that's the wrong move but i don't think it's
detrimental enough that um that it will detract from the value prop that is hyper core like
standing alone like i think it'll be good enough so i just want to get some exposure to that um now that like the downside is like the insurance the insurance
uh fund that they have in case things go sideways is all denominated in hype right and we historically
have shown like well if the thing backing all the thing is the thing that is also probably by your
thing not being fucked up is like that's the luna model right like luna luna shows to be weak
therefore the price of the thing goes down therefore like everything you have that's the luna model right like luna luna shows to be weak therefore the price of the
thing goes down therefore like everything you have that's quote-unquote backing this stuff is
also worth zero so like that doesn't work um maybe that gets rectified in the future but i don't i
don't see this as a huge issue in the immediate future okay yeah i think very helpful summary of
some of the good points and some of the ongoing challenges. I like the idea.
It's something I've dived into a lot, actually.
If you're curious, I'll share some stuff with you.
But in general, one of the things we're doing, we're about to open up our Discord in a much
bigger way at the moment is like a very small experiment with just a few people, not too
many.
We're going to be opening that up on a much bigger way.
And one of the things we'll be doing is sharing all of our
research into things like that. Now, obviously we don't know for sure all kinds of risks involved
with any of the things that all the things you just mentioned, but I, like me personally, I've
done a significant amount of research on hype. You know, when you're thinking about these new
ecosystems, you want to find like, what's the Aave for hype? What is the gito for hype what is the um give me another one
you need lending you need the aggregator you need the dex you need you've got all of these things
which are absolute core components for any successful chain if you think that's going
to be one or if you're interested then you want to you want to play around you want to be there
participate so i've done a lot of that work and that's one of the things we's going to be one or if you're interested then you want to you want to play around you want to be there participate so i've done a lot of that work and that's one of the
things we're going to be putting out in there and hopefully that'll be helpful to the people who
join but we'll be rolling that out in due course that's just a quick remind on that because i think
what you're saying lean kind of helpfully illustrates what we will be sharing in there um
enough of that though legendary itary, it's time.
We've got to get into the tariff stuff, all kinds of humongous, well, a set of humongous
headlines.
I'm going to just leave you to take us through the most important information as you see
for.
Awesome.
Markets are crashing globally.
US stock market has wiped out more than 9 trillion since Trump's
inauguration, 5 trillion of which have been evaporated between April 2nd and April 4th.
That was the largest two day loss on record at the end of last week. That data is according
to MarketWatch. Just to look at a couple stock indices, globally speaking, we have the S&P 500 down 10.5% over two days. Japan's Nikkei
down 7% on Monday. That is extending on a 9% drop from the previous week. That makes it the
worst since March 2020. Hong Kong is down 13%. Hong Kong is down more than the other indices for
the sole reason that the market
was closed there on Friday. So we are still catching up on that. So to say, European markets
also suffering strongly euro stocks down 4.9% broader stock 600 down 4.4. France is down
almost 5%. So is Germany. So is London. Italy was down 5% as well, but now seems to be the only piece of green on this world map that I'm sharing on the screen currently.
Also, analysts on the Wall Street, both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, are increasing the probability of recession in their models,
with Goldman Sachs thinking that's a 45% chance to happen.
JP Morgan is seeing that at 60%.
We'll also take a look at some data coming from
Polymarket a bit later. And as you have said, B, in the beginning of the show, Trump is very much
convinced that this is the right move. And he's actually commenting that on Truth Social on a
post that came out just before we started the show in a very, very Trump-esque and positive way.
I'm going to zoom in a bit on that.
He's saying all prices are down, interest rates are down,
the slow-moving Fed should cut rates, food prices are down,
there is no inflation, and the long-time abused USA is bringing in billions of dollars a week from the abusing countries
on tariffs that are already in place.
This is despite the fact that the biggest abuse of them all,
China, whose markets are crashing, just raised its tariffs by 34% on top of its long-term, ridiculously high tariffs, plus
not acknowledging my warning for abusing countries not to retaliate, they've made enough for
decades, taking advantage of the good old USA.
Our past quote-unquote leaders are to blame for allowing this and so much else to happen
to our country.
Make America great again.
I also want to get into some of the reactions from other countries and some more bits and
pieces of data, but I know this is a lot, so I'm going to pause here for a second.
What was your thought then, Ledge?
Thanks for that initial summary.
I know you've got a bunch of other data and different directions to take this because
there was more to digest, but what was your read on his his uh his key message this this weekend like what was
your personal read on it i think that he truly thinks this is the right way to fix this trade
imbalance the trade deficit of a trillion US dollars. And over the course of
the weekend, on the timeline, we've seen more and more older quote unquote historical interviews
with Trump surfacing, where he's been talking about tariffs and been talking about the fact
that he thinks they are a great way to fix what is wrong with the trade deficit,
what is wrong with the USA's trade in general.
So I truly think in this post that I just read from Truth Social,
which came out 10 minutes before we started the show,
seems to exactly confirm that he seems to be convinced very much
that this is the right way to move forward.
And just because of how historical this thinking of his is,
I, and that's my personal opinion,
I am very much not inclined to think
this is some sort of genius plan
to get in a massively positive negotiation position.
There's been some commentary from people
who are close to him in the White House
who allegedly have been saying that he did not intend for the market to crash this hard or for
the market to crash at all. But then I'm also thinking now you have this position where you
came out just a couple of days ago with Liberation Day on April 2nd and have tariffed the entire
world. Now you can't fold your hand and be like, oh, sorry, I'm going to take all of that back
because the whole world is crashing
to historically unprecedented levels even
because then A, you lose face
and B, nobody's going to take you seriously.
So you kind of have to follow through
with this for a bit longer.
And we'll also have for a bit later
some polymarket data on that
to see how the market is thinking,
how long the situation could last.
I like it.
I think that's been one of the key things.
I think maybe that's one of the things
that people have been,
if you zoom out,
I think that's maybe one of the key arguments
that people are having.
Some people are thinking that,
in essence, he is not serious.
And therefore, look, guys, just relax.
Like, it's not a serious thing.
Don't worry about it.
And they're evaluating everything on the basis that this is not a serious thing, that it's
a tool for negotiation.
And that's the foundation from which you're meant to analyze the situation.
If you are of the opinion, which I think you are now either moved towards legendary or
whether you were there the whole time, it's like, is not a negotiating thing this is the way it's supposed
to be that completely changes the way that you're analyzing the situation i think that part of the
confusion has been which of these two situations are we in a lot of the arguments are probably
taking place because certain people are thinking are using like framework one, which is he's
not serious.
Don't worry.
It's just like a negotiating tactic.
And some people are saying, no, it's not.
Therefore, we've got to take it much more seriously.
And until you're on the same page, until you actually know what it is, it's hard to have
a conversation or an argument discussion about the merit of something because some people
are not even taking it seriously.
There's a possibility because they're just thinking that it's a negotiating tactic so go on bread
this this is just like so independent of the individual like their specific terrorist
tariff conversation this is like this is trump's like you're this is this is your view of trump
or how anyone views trump right you either think the dude is saying what he means or you think,
which is dumb, or you think he's playing 5D chess, right?
Like you're like, Oh, it's five now. It's five. I thought it was four before multidimensional.
Give it another month and it'll be six and then seven.
Right. So they're like going into this, they're like, Oh,
this guy is just playing on another plane of existence.
And therefore we don't understand the literal words that he's saying and then the other side of the thing is like no
the dude's been talking about tariffs he loves tariffs he's been doing it since the 80s like he
he means tariffs even if he'd like misunderstands actual calculations for like how he's going to
attribute these tariffs or like the amount he's going to attribute so like i think anyone's general position on this is is is mostly around
how literal you're taking the person and if you believe that he is like you're giving him grace
and like the grace you give him is that you think he is doing this as a feint to then trick people into giving
the art of negotiation or if you just think he's literally silly enough to impose this number uh
on all of these countries which i tend to be on that school right now i think the dude is just
like he keeps saying what he thinks and what he's saying or what he thinks is just kind of
so ridiculous that everyone is like he
can't be serious and therefore they imbue this like the 60 70 chess stuff um whereas i think he's
just like the dude just kind of been going through his life like this the entire time and everyone
keeps doing like like this happened with the wall right he's like oh i'm gonna build a wall
on like between us and mexico and everyone's like, he's not talking about a literal wall. That's clearly insane.
That's stupid.
No one would say that.
He's talking about strengthening our foreign policy
with our neighbors to the south.
It's a metaphorical wall.
And then you see him standing in front of like nine different types of walls.
And he's like, oh, that one's good.
I want the barbed wire at the top.
Make sure we put a stick over here.
He's literally talking about walls, people.
He's talking about walls.
He's talking about tariffs.
He wants to do these fucking tariffs.
This is what he does.
So I'm in that school where he's like,
he's going to throw these fucking numbers out there because this is what
he's always meant.
And it's never been some,
some psychological trick.
To your point.
So I,
I agree.
I'm in that camp as well,
I think.
And I also think simultaneously and funk i see
your hand i'm going to come to you in just one second um i also think that when it's trump saying
it people have particular reactions and therefore the thing that i've noticed in people's reactions
is they take what besant says as like slightly more palatable. And so I watched the interview with Tucker over the weekend.
And I'm just trying to find my notes here, like maybe a couple of the key points.
One of the things he said on tariffs specifically, it's not like he was coming out grossly against tariffs either.
And so look, again, you can have a different discussion of like, look, are they just all like super loyal?
And if they're ever disloyal, they're going to get thrown out.
That could be a possibility.
Are they just towing the party line now?
All of those things are a possibility.
But when he was asked about tariffs, he said, if tariffs are so bad, why do they have them?
Speaking of the other countries.
So like, why does Europe have them?
Why does China have them? Everyone's acting like they're so bad, but why does europe have them why does china have them everyone's
acting like they're so bad but why does everyone else put them on us um if the american consumer
if the american consumer is going to pay all the tariffs then why do they care about the tariff
the point being that if it is truly going to be the american consumer that's like made super worse off from it why would the
other countries be concerned and I think his specific point on tariffs just to articulate that
idea for the people who are you know trying to figure out why it's like the the proportion I
think when he talked about the China tariffs the proportion of the tariff which ends up getting
passed on to the US consumer ends up being a very, very small number versus the headline number. Now we can obviously argue about that. That
was Besant's position. The reason why I'm explaining that is because it seems to be the
case that if Trump is saying a bunch of stuff, the market is even less trusting or like doesn't
really know which way is up. I think based on the way I've seen people speak about
Besant is that they certainly want to trust him more. They think he's got a steady hand and
that's why I'm showing what his perspective was and at least the arguments that he's been making,
whether or not they're obviously guided by the party line and whether he feels like he's compelled
to say those things. It's helpful to know what his arguments were as well.
Funky, your hand is raised. What is your take here on any of the new updates on the tariffs?
Yeah, just real quick. One thing, I had my hand up and I pulled it down because I thought maybe
that was too crazy. But then Brett reminded me how crazy Trump is. I swear i saw today or yesterday a truth social tweet from trump a post
that said ramen is back on the menu so like at first i thought oh maybe somebody photoshopped
that and he wasn't being serious but then brett just brought up these great points about like
you never know what this dude is gonna say like he will say some crazy stuff and to the point about
percent uh don't look at sam's tweets. He and I were having
a quick chat about this. He thinks Bissette will be the first to go because he thinks
that there's, quote unquote, too much daylight between him and Trump, that he's not like
a true Trump or the way they say Howard Lutnick is. And that if this all needs somebody to
be scapegoated, it's going to be him for some reason. So that was interesting.
Yeah, I think that's interesting. I definitely think Lutnik is, if you've listened to the
Lutnik interviews, Trump and Lutnik go back like decades. They're like friends from going out in
New York when they were tearing it up in town. So he's like a proper Trumper. And yeah, sure,
Besant might be a newer person. I don't see the divide I get the
sense that Besant is at a minimum on board with this and he's chosen to serve the country
his country because he thinks this is an important thing to do that's just my personal read based on
probably a couple of hours of interviews that I've seen with him but you know you never know
the people's intentions deep down.
So that's my personal read.
Landry, I want to come back to you
because I know you've got a bunch
of other interesting information on this
and maybe we can take the conversation
in a different direction.
Yeah, absolutely.
Another thing I want to look at
is how countries have reacted so far.
So in Europe, we have the German Minister of Economy,
Robert Habeck, saying that it is necessary
that the European Union is providing
a unified response to the US tariffs and that they need to act clearly, decisively, prudently.
We don't have a final decision yet from the EU, but I will expect that something will
be able to provide updates over the course of this week.
In Asia, however, we've seen several nations already
initiating measures to counteract some of the economic impact of tariffs. We have China with
the Sovereign Wealth Fund, the central Hujin Investments, intervening to stabilize the stock
market by purchasing domestic shares via ETFs. That came again after the Shanghai Composite Index saw that a 7% drop, which was its worst day in five years.
In Indonesia, the Bank of Indonesia has announced plans to, quote-unquote, intervene aggressively,
also in the domestic exchange markets, and to stabilize the local currency,
which has depreciated as a result of this to the lowest level since
their 1998 financial crisis.
They both will take place those countermeasures in the spot as well as in the forward markets
in Taiwan.
We've seen the FSC, the Financial Supervisory Commission,
imposing temporary restrictions on short selling to also mitigate some of that turmoil we've seen
as a result from the markets
and that there's a new minimum short selling margin ratio
and also a limit to the volume of shares
that can be sold short.
So pretty, pretty swift interventions
coming from central banks
and financial authorities
in some Asian countries
while the EU is taking a bit more time
to formulate its strategy.
One point to come in here, Ledge.
What was the news?
Did you see the news
where allegedly there's 50 countries, I think it was 50 countries that have come forward to say that we're ready to negotiate, right?
Is that correct?
Is that something that you know as well?
Yeah, I've seen reports on that.
It's hard to say anything more specific on that, because obviously all countries kind of want to talk to the US right now.
So we don't really have a list of those 50 countries.
Something more concrete that we've seen is Argentina, President Millet, kind of doubling down on his very positive relationship with Trump.
with Trump and it looks like they are the first they have the first bilateral agreement to have
a zero tariff framework that is Argentina and the US but not too much to comment on these other 49
countries who have reached out and in what capacity that has happened I heard so all of
this conversation stole like every one of my podcasts uh so while i was driving down
to redwoods all my crypto podcasts were talking about trump which is unfortunate um anyways in
that conversation a lot of them are highlighting these like different blocks that are coming
forward to negotiate or to like try to negotiate right so you had mentioned the eu already there's
actually one that was uh in the asian countries right there's china kore Korea, Japan. It was actually surprising to see
some of these groups that were forming.
If China groups up with
the remainder of those countries,
that's actually a pretty strong force
given
where our debt is
outstanding in the world.
That was something that was repeatedly
mentioned across
media outlets, which is the blocks that were forming.
Yeah, fair point.
Lej, anything else?
Not that specifically.
However, what I want to do is take a look at Polymarket
to a bit of a feeling of, well, what the market is betting,
what the market is thinking from Polymarket's perspective.
The first bet I want to look at is which countries will Trump reduce tariffs on before June.
That has 426k in volume, rather recent bets, so not too much volume in there just yet, but already significant.
But we see very strong conviction with countries like Vietnam, with countries like Cambodia,
with 75-85% chances, respectively, that tariffs for those countries will be reduced before
June.
I am on purpose ignoring some of the other top ranking countries because they just have
a couple of K in volume in them.
So I'm just looking at those who have accumulated more volume. Laos, for example, with 167 K volume, 67% chance that tariffs will be reduced. The really
interesting one to me, the European Union, because it also has significant volume in there, 120 K,
60% thinking or 59% thinking just ticked down a bit, that tariffs will be reduced before June.
So if you evaluate that,
it's a bit more than a coin flip
what the market is thinking right now.
So it could be that some of this stuff gets resolved
by the end of May.
It also could be that it takes way, way longer.
So right now, the summary would be that
we have a bit of a tendency to say that this will be at least partially resolved over the next eight weeks, but still a lot of uncertainty going on there.
Then the next thing I want to look at is the US recession bet.
I said it before that both Goldman Sachs as well as JP Morgan models have increased their probabilities of recession coming. Polymarket has this question as well.
US recession in 2025.
Again, they used a standard definition of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP
growth to determine if the US is in a recession.
And currently, the odds for that are at 64%.
Had ticked a bit high at 67%,
but still holding up very, very highly.
Also, looking back to the start of the year,
where the market was thinking
there's only a 20% chance of this happening.
So this has more than tripled up to now.
And the final thing that I want to look at
is the Fed decision in June,
what the
market is thinking here. 34% says no change happening. And 56% are thinking that we'll see
a 25 bps decrease when it comes to rates. That is up bit used to be more 47% thinking that just a couple
days ago so this rates have been going up significantly and notably now there's a 10%
chance that we'll see a 50 pips decrease which basically used to be a two to three percent
only two to three weeks ago so to sum that up mark is becoming more
confident was thinking more strongly that we'll see a rate cut in june okay so i think thank you
for that the thing the thing that i think it was best and again in the interview things that i i
see are not being spoken about as much.
And again, we're no experts in this stuff,
but the things that they are pointing towards
when it comes to the tariff.
Yes, everyone in crypto is obsessed with the rate number, right?
Everyone wants just rates to come down.
If rates come down, we go up.
And I saw an interview with Arthur Hayes over the weekend
and he was like, look, ultimately it's kind of simple for crypto.
Like if the money supply in the world goes up, we go up.
So that's on a simplistic level.
Those are some key data points.
Post all of this conversation is one, the 10 year yield for, um, for the treasuries has gone down beneath four for the first time.
It might, maybe it's ticked above four legendary.
I don't know if you can just check that quickly.
Um, but under Biden, and this was a point that Besson was making under Biden, maybe even at the start of China, I can't remember exactly, but that was as high as five. And when you have as much debt as the US has, that number is just very high because it's
too high to too much of the money that you are bringing in is going to service this debt when
that debt is at around 5%. Because of all of this stuff stuff as you can see on the screen now we're sharing it
it's broken for it's like 3.974 and so what they are pointing towards is saying like this is good
this is good that the 10-year treasury yield is down the other thing that i had not really even
considered and i've seen a few people point towards, haven't even considered the full implications of this,
but I'll just say it out loud and see what we think,
is the oil price.
So apparently oil, Ledge, I don't know if you can bring this one up as well,
but oil is significantly down.
As part of all of this stuff going on, the oil prices come down a lot.
Ledge, do you have that one around or not quite?
What are we looking at here in terms of the numbers?
We are seeing oil prices being down for crude oil 2% to 3%, 2.5%.
Yes, that is over, let me see.
Sorry, it's taking a bit.
2.5% over the last 24 hours.
And over the last year, okay, this is not working.
Give me a second to find a better chart.
That's fine.
But anyway, so the point is,
these were two of the data points
which the administration were pointing towards. I was like, these are the things we're looking at.
These are the things we're looking at. You had the record number of US holidays to Europe, whilst simultaneously having the record
number of US families using food banks.
And the point being that this discrepancy is too wide.
Something needs to be done.
And when he was talking about stocks, they seem to be very, and I think this is coming
to a point where like, should you take these guys seriously? seriously should you not take them seriously they know what they're doing is
going to hurt stocks they think they know that at this point these people are not as much as people
want to say call them names and say like besant is highly highly accomplished even if you don't
like lundin you don't like trump or whatever but they know what they know that there's going to be
a toll,
but when they speak about these other stories of like the things that they're trying to achieve,
and who knows, maybe there's side, side, uh, objectives as well, but at least that's the
messaging, which is we need to, well, what? Oh yeah. This was a great quote actually from,
from the interview when they were talking about how all the gains were lost in the mag 7 he said he he pointed towards look it's not the tariffs it's the it's the um
what was the name of the chinese ai thing deep seek once that came out that's what kicked it off
in his opinion that's what he said at least that was one of the reasons deep sequels kicked this
off there's been a huge ai bubble going on in American tech in general. In his opinion, that was at least part of the reason why this down downward trend was kicked off. And he said the stock market, or at least those losses in the tech sector, that's a MAG7 problem, not a MAGA problem.
and so if you're wondering to what extent these people are serious about what they're doing
I think they're basically saying look we're happy to take some of these hits in the market I don't
know for how long and obviously it's been hit already significantly does that go on forever I
don't know but they seem pretty comfortable with the idea that they're going to take some heat and
the markets are going to be red in order to deal with some of the other stuff so
that was my assessment based on what you just said ledge but also some of the tying in the
best interview any reactions there based on the stuff that you're seeing as well yeah absolutely
before i react to that just let me correct the question you had asked on crudo before so as i
said we are down 2.6 on the day day. Barrel of Crudo is $60 right
now. However, we are down way more on the month. That's 8.5% and down 30% over the last year just
to have this data right. Yeah, I agree with the part that they have to be aware of this hurting
the stock market. I don't think that Trump's, again, this is a pure speculation, personal
thought, because I have no way to look into his brain. I just don't think he had the idea or he
would have predicted that the markets would hurt that bad, globally speaking. Ultimately,
if you go back to the trade deficit figure, the US has a trade deficit of a trillion,
and we've now evaporated almost 10 trillion from the stock
markets since he got inaugurated. So that already is 10 times basically the unfairness he wanted to
fix. But with all that being said, ultimately, I started to DCA into global index funds myself.
I have no idea how long this entire situation will last. This will be resolved over
the next month, months, if this is going to take longer or not. So just started to make some more
significant buys in half, basically gunpowder to buy more over the next couple of months.
But all of that with an extremely long time horizon. So my thinking there is I have no
idea what's happening, but I know that I will
most likely outlive Trump and I will be in the stock market for more decades than he
will probably be alive if things go well for my personal health, so to speak. And that's kind of
the time horizon I'm looking at right now when I make these buys. And just for some more personal insight,
when you're talking about buys here,
you're thinking more stock market
providing better value than even crypto.
No, I'm not really having a good answer to that.
I'm still very bullish on Bitcoin.
It's just I want to have more diversification.
I did take very, very significant profits
at the top of the year.
I'm now for the first time in my life in a position where i can actually buy the dip in like meaningful amount i still have a very strong exposure to to crypto and mainly to btc with
which i've been stacking more but i also want to have stock market exposure because ultimately i
very much like the thought that the stock market or the s&P 500 even averaged 9.5% over the last couple of decades, subtract inflation from that, take
4% to 5% out from a stock portfolio a year, and it's basically never going to go down. You're
never going to attack the principle and you will be able to offset inflation. That's the long-term thinking for this, but that doesn't change my innate bullishness
on DC and what is being done in crypto.
So the core question I have for you here, and I asked you this before the show, because
I think this will be helpful for people.
So I'll repeat it and then we'll close out because we're at time for today.
But I guess the key question when you're saying okay the stock market's great
it always has been therefore it should be the question is are we moving into an environment
which has not been tested at least for a huge number of years we've not had an environment where
america has been so tariff some so pro tariff and does that mean that the
future should operate in the same way that it has for the previous set of decades how do you
reconcile that with your portfolio like what is your answer to that question you obviously are
bullish on on the stock market to kind of, I guess, kind of just figure itself out. But in this universe where we're so pro tariffs, how do you, what do you think?
Yeah, that is very much my thesis.
The stock market has survived the Great Depression.
It has recovered pretty quickly, even after World War II.
The history of stocks has seen so much uncertainty and very, very horrible things happening and always figured a way
to survive.
And that is kind of what I'm thinking too.
Now, could there be a future where the entire world has universal basic income that completely
changes the way how companies work?
And for that reason, index funds and global index funds won't work in the way they work
today.
Could be.
No idea if and how this will happen.
But just from the tariff perspective alone, I'm like, eh, they are a thing.
They will come.
They will go again.
We had this effective tariff rate 100 years ago.
And yes, the economy was way, way simple in that.
But my point being is I have confidence that the stock market will work out almost everything
over a couple of decades.
And I'm young enough to still have the patience to do that.
Right.
If you're like,
I don't know,
you want to,
you're 50 years old and you want to retire or 40 or 60 or whatever the
retirement age is that you aspire.
and you say you have like two more years in the stock market and you don't
want to take that risk can be fully allocated to neither the stock market
nor crypto.
But just given how young I am, I have the patience to set out a lot of things
fair enough despite swizzy claiming the opposite in the comments he's saying well said legendary
i guess it only shows that you're getting older moving to some of the more traditional markets
maybe but still young enough to sit out a major, major crisis if one's coming.
Okay, I like it. I think that provides some perspective. For people, there's obviously a variety of things going on, all fairly complex. We're doing our best to keep you up to speed with
everything that is happening in the market, whether that is crypto, tariff related, stocks related,
we're trying to cover it all mind we do this every single day
monday to friday at 7 a.m eastern time for one hour we're live on x we're live on x video we're
also live on youtube and you can catch us after if you prefer to consume the content on apple
podcast or spotify so thank you so much for joining us as always thanks to my co-host spread
and legendary thanks for funky for his contributions as always. Thanks to my co-hosts, Brad and Legendary. Thanks for
Funky for his contributions as usual. And we hope you have a wonderful day. Take care and we'll be
seeing you again here tomorrow. Same time, same place. Bye-bye.
