Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Good Luck Wednesday, Fed. | Market Check
Recorded: March 16, 2026 Duration: 0:53:03Space Recording
Full Transcription
good morning ladies and gentlemen boys and girls children of all ages welcome to market check
uh there is no second best live youtube stream to talk about the markets we've got quite a show
for you in store today talking about this crypto pump obviously are we bottomed are you shorting
range highs we'll talk about all of that and then
some here on today's episode but first i'm snorlax you should also know me as tommy if you're new you
don't but i larp as a fat pokemon sometimes i'm joined by big louis and of course chef jackus
like i said we have a great show in store for you guys today but you already know what i'm going to
ask you at this
point right before i can give my whole spiel on everything that's happening with the markets right
now i'm going to ask if you guys can slam that like button for us we checked it on friday we've
been threatening to check it lately and for those who are new for those who don't know when we don't
hit the like button we do tend to show you soybeans. But unfortunately, soybeans are kind of looking very bullish right now. So we might have to pick
something else like lean hog futures or something like that. Either way, guys, we are very appreciative
when you hit the like button for us, you help our channel continue to get continue to get more
exposure, obviously on YouTube and the general internet. So hit the like button for us. We'll
oblige by giving you a great show and hopefully some alpha along the way. But yeah,
let's talk about the market, right? We're getting another hard taco attempt from Team Trump,
right? Saying that the Iran war, right? It's kind of like the same thing as last week where we got
the war is over, we're winning, et we're winning etc etc we'll see kind of
how it holds up this is a big week obviously we've got bigspiration on wednesday we've got
opex on friday and of course we hear from uh from big jerome powell as well i want to say
on wednesday for the fomc we'll see if uh any adjustments towards you know towards rates given
everything that's transpired with energy here over the last
few months. But in general, guys, I mean, the market's giving us this great pump. I felt like
I had to save Bitcoin and crypto for last, which Bitcoin pumped all the way up towards above 74K,
but ETH was up over 5% on the day. So we are seeing ETH lead this rally thus far,
attempt to break market structure and obviously put a bottom in for the entire market.
Right. I mean, some altcoins, but not all of them. Right.
A lot of these like ETH adjacent altcoins mainly are the ones showing strength.
Obviously, Hyperliquid is green again today.
That's kind of like a tale that's old this time at this point.
But is the bottom in or are you shoring range highs anon i guess uh i guess this week is uh
is going to be a trader's paradise if i had to guess especially given all the catalysts that
we have throughout the week but how are we doing guys what are we seeing in the market what do we
did we do anything fun over the weekend that we want to discuss and uh yeah the floor is yours did some uh kid birthday party stuff my son's cousin or my nephew
stiff birthday party so we went to this place it was honestly this place we went to is a kid's
paradise we would have loved something like that as kids. They didn't have stuff like that, but it was like laser tag, go-karts, bumper cars, trampoline park.
You got kids hanging from zip lines, like flying across the ceiling as you walk in.
It was insane.
Definitely way, way more advanced and cool than what we had growing up.
But yeah, so I did a birthday party there and then spent some time with the wifey Sunday,
just relaxing, hanging out.
Um, nothing crazy, you know, just hanging.
Um, yeah, I made 5% on my, uh, my copy trading, automated copy trading bot so i did nothing didn't look
at a chart made five percent it's nice just hanging out so that was cool
i like it and i like the line what did you do me move me. Just hanging around.
A little meme in there.
Gotta love it as a meme enjoy.
Yeah. Why is the market pumping? I was promised the 2022 fractal. I mean, yeah.
You know, everyone up to their liking.
As I was discussing, 2022 fractal while, you know, it...
I think it was a valid fractal. Like, it was a... on a first look context. And so in that sense, you can try to position alongside it.
But in my opinion, the invalidation on it can be closed.
And that's why, you know, and again, on one hand,
you could say that fractals don't matter.
It's like, hey, I'm a big fan of fractals,
and I've live shown many of them working really well.
But you always need to apply them just like anything to a compact fractal.
So a simple fractal that looks the same doesn't have to play out the same
if it doesn't fit the rest of the market
and this was really a month's fractal like like uh you know crack let's spread across
30 days or so challenging five year of data, five years of high-faction, and that's a bit too much, Martin.
It warms my heart to see 2022 fractalors get blown out, man.
Nothing has irritated me more than that over the last few weeks, honestly.
Even though I still have a different high
time frame bias obviously than the rest of the panel but I hated the 2022 fractal I really do
it's not comparable it's just not yeah I mean the fractal I think the fractal sort of main mainly played out with this drop that we got from january
right like in a sense that and again it's not the same but like this drop lower
that was equivalent of that q122 bounce uh you know if it makes sense
uh you know if it makes sense
but that's about it in my opinion
yeah this was this you know
this one that one yeah this this might yeah probably yeah that makes sense you know yeah
i i would agree with that as well you know um it's become a bit of an echo chamber of course
um the algorithm feeds you what you what you want to see or what you don't want to see at the same
time so it's it's i will say it's been very hard to, you know, I feel like using stuff
like X and YouTube to gauge sentiment has gotten a lot more difficult because these algorithms are
just getting better and better at tailoring either what you want to see or what you don't
want to see. You know, it's, I guess it kind of just depends. Um, but it has felt like an echo chamber of just lost hope, embarrassedness over the last
several months. So yeah, that could have been it. One thing I will continue to say,
just looking at Bitcoin on the weekly time frame as simplest
as simple as it can i'm a simple man right i'm very simple i'm a simple man i see boobs i press
like yeah exactly so like weekly rsi you know being fully reset, historically, when you see that, you know, your Bitcoin is cyclically reset,
you know, alongside of that, that's a great factor. Doesn't mean imminent reversal,
doesn't mean everything's, you know, great and dandy, but it's one set of data. The other set
of data is you're sitting at one of the largest demand levels on the chart. That is your eight month consolidation range from 2024. And as well as your major
psychological and physical, uh, support, which is your 2021 double top. Um, and just to expect
this to give out, you know, on a first attempt at it since for like in two years without even,
even like a mean reversion bounce of any sort, uh, I think, you know,
it doesn't make sense to me, you know, maybe someone else, but you know,
you should be at least expecting some sort of range or, or,
or bounce or, or something.
And you should be looking for opportunity, not, oh, we were down 55% off
the all-time highs. We've been in a downtrend for six months. Now it's time to get really
bearish and look for this. I guess people have their reasonings, but all the factors I just
mentioned has me looking for buying opportunity. And being I've been, I've been buying Bitcoin, you know, in this area.
First time I bought Bitcoin since this time back in September of 2022 or June
2022, you know,
I was buying Bitcoin around this same time period with the same kind of setup,
you know, and you need a multi-year timeframe for for this you know where if you just wait for this
scenario weekly or salary set price trading into major support you know at least 50 off the all-time
high you begin dcaing as long as you have a six nine twelve month time horizon you're going to
do well right um and with that then you know six, 12, nine months from now, or even three months,
right. We, you know, not many people are talking about a V-shaped recovery because they are rare,
right. But it can happen, you know, who knows Bitcoin will be back at 95, 100 K next month.
Right. No one knows, no one knows for sure. But if you're just taking the risk with, you know,
and it's calculated risk, you know, after all those taking the risk with, you know, and it's calculated risk, you know,
after all those things I just mentioned, you know, you're historically better off six, nine
months down the road if you start to accumulate Bitcoin in this environment, which I've been doing.
And we're starting to see a little bit of a promise for that today. Obviously lots of work to do, but that's what I've been doing.
And then eventually Bitcoin sees a true reversal. Hopefully we see some better movement out of
altcoins as this go around or the right altcoins, right? A lot of altcoins are probably going to go
to zero and they should, a lot of garbage out there, but the right altcoins rise from the ashes.
And as Bitcoin is going up and you've been DCAing Bitcoin, you could take profits on your Bitcoin,
turn around and buy altcoins that are still likely doing some sort of reaccumulation or
trying to exit some sort of accumulation. And that's the game plan, right? That's how
you should be trying to play these crypto cycles, at least in my opinion.
Indeed. Indeed. Very nice. Very nice cook sesh, Louis.
And there was a comment that I was going to highlight.
This is a bold statement, but at the same time,
I suppose if you're an Anon account,
you essentially hold no risk.
I assume no risk for these products myself.
Because if you're going to delete your account,
you can just create a new one with just a different number
and you can be Yusef Bauwail Fall 88 70 instead of 69.
But yeah, I mean I generally have a problem right with people saying that 60k isn't the bottom. Obviously we know that bottoms oftentimes, but not always, form in a way that you range around the low and you usually sweep it a few times as the price tests if they are still
sellers and so forth.
But if you've been long enough in the markets as I've been, then you would know that there are also many cases in which the market bottoms on a simple capitulation and then recover, whether that's V-shape, whether that's a bounce, then a slow bleed, but it doesn't take the low anymore.
than a slow bleed, but it doesn't take the low anymore.
And so that happens, that happens here and there.
After all, ease in the prior cycle bottomed this way in 2022,
like it bottomed in June,
and then it created like bunch of equal lows.
It didn't make even a new low during FTX, and that was it.
And so it's, in my opinion, very worthy of knowing
the possibility that the law can be taken,
but also the fact that it doesn't have to be
and not really speaking in terms of certainties here.
Although I understand that as a, you know, like,
like as anyone, you know, we like to make proclaims of 100%, like 100% this is happening, or 100% this is not, and, you know, the bottom's in the bottom's not in the top isn't, and so forth.
But obviously, you know, probability speaking
yeah need confirmation so that i can know whether or not i can hold something for the next two to three years without having to trade in and out of it that's basically what it is
um or at the very least i feel like what most people seek is that level of certainty that this market just doesn't really provide anymore in my
opinion that i agree with that i agree with this is this has not been a rewarding market to
buy and hold and accumulate during bearish conditions which when it used to right when
it used to like if you're looking at someone and saying, how the fuck did, you know, they, they messed this up.
I was following them, counting on them to give me value information.
Well, the whole market has changed, right?
This market used to be a market where 20, like from 2018 to 2020, if you simply just DCA'd any project, you know, new, old, took your time, DCA'd throughout that bear market when things were bad,
you were rewarded in 2021 because Bitcoin was that tide that lifted all ships. Whereas in this
go around, you didn't get that tide that lifted all ships. So if you accumulated all coins
during the bear market and Bitcoin exited the bear market, like it did, you know, a lot of the stuff and a lot of the environment that we saw
last cycle did not occur. Right. So, you know, if people were basing that off data, I was one of
them. Right. But the good thing was that I owned Bitcoin coming off the lows, which was a big
saving grace for me. And I owned high cap altcoins like xrp that did well you know
um so that's why you know the same thing i'm not full i haven't been full porting all coins here
i i'm dcaing bitcoin but what i am doing is also i'm allocating to crypto stocks because the stock
market has just been a way better trading vehicle um to get exposure to this asset class so along
with bitcoin i've been uh you know accumulating and getting exposure to this asset class. So along with Bitcoin, I've been accumulating and getting exposure
to these crypto-related stocks, whether that's Bitcoin miners,
whether it's Coinbase, whether it's Circle, some of these treasuries,
you've got like BM&R, all these things.
Probably better odds those perform well if we do get a macro kind of reversal here, especially for Bitcoin.
So I am a little more comfortable playing those rather than just choosing a
basket of altcoins. Not that all altcoins are bad.
There's definitely ones that are mine. But yeah,
it hasn't really been rewarding to those that want to buy,
hold and invest in this market and not have to trade.
It's okay, Louie, you can say it. Most altcoins.
Yeah, most altcoins. It's true. It's true.
And it's taken me a while to come around to that. It really has.
In a perfect world, a lot of these things don't come back.
So there's not fragmented liquidity.
Yeah, I'm also not a fan of
fragmented liquidity I would hope that centralized exchanges would do that job
you know for us and really big the solid ones you know in a responsible manner
but then you think about it and you know lots of like I'm not saying
anything amazing about Caspa here not not the point but like lots of exchanges
have the biggest garbage listed and they don't have by Caspa on spot yeah and I
think that kind of tells lots of story as well obviously centralized exchanges didn't want to miss on all
the amazing fees they could get from all the shitcoins listing,
right?
So that's where we are today.
But I think, again, when you think about it,
this space has been underperforming
against other asset classes for the past five years,
as ETH has been ranging this whole time pretty
much.
And it has reflected most.
But when you think about it, you know, people tend to, and I think there was some like quote
in the movie Big Short, something like that, but people obviously have a tendency to be,
or like it's a general rule, right?
Like people have a tendency to be biased based on the prior
years and thinking it's going to be like that in the future too but uh i think it's quite the
opposite like the fact that ease has been ranging here for the past five this is the sixth year
makes the bullish case larger actually than the bearish one but obviously
because it took so long and crypto folk are not used to this while it's really normal in the
stock land that stock ranges for five six years and then it really starts to shoot up and again
that that is apple that is Amazon, that is Netflix.
All of these companies have ranged for six years
and then went on for thousands of percent of rally.
It's really nothing uncommon in the market.
But for lots of people in crypto, this is something crazy.
crazy and so right now people think it must be over but i say this is really a good risk reward
And so right now people think it must be over.
opportunity here sitting in the markets and it makes me actually more optimistic about the future
than anything the time it took to really frustrate people to the point that nobody gives a shit, nobody is positioned, everyone got liquidated by now.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, I agree with that, man.
Casper is one that I like.
Is there going to be a whole meta based around coins that aren't listed on finance should
be we should make an index guarantee you'll do very well that's why hype is performing so well
yep in my opinion shocker i know right um yeah cask was one that i think is is
Yeah, Casper's one that I think is going to do well.
Is Casper on Hype?
No, I don't think so.
That's a good question.
Let me look.
I don't think so.
I don't think it's anywhere, man.
Oh, wait.
It's on Hyperliquid for 3x leverage.
Oh, really?
I didn't know that. Wow. There's, like, very little OI, but yeah. Hyperliquid for 3x leverage. Oh, really?
Wow.
There's like very little OI, but yeah.
I was looking at their Japanese markets, and I was like, ooh, I kind of want to short the Nikkei. But then I looked at the market, and it was like, yeah, actually, there's only 300 K of total OI on this market.
I probably shouldn't.
So you could just do a one X kind of trade there.
Technically it gets, well, it's not spot, but you could pretty much get a one-to-one
one-to-one CASPA buys on Hyperliquid.
cask device on hyper liquid.
I did not know that.
I did not know that.
That's good to know.
The only other exchange that has it that I know that I was buying on here,
this was, I remember back here in 2023,
I was able to get in at like under five cents was Uphold.
Man, I haven't heard that in a long time.
Yeah, Uphold was clutch because Uphold was one of the few exchanges that had Casper,
and two was one of the few or only exchanges that kept XRP listed during the whole SEC lawsuit.
So Uphold was what I used to do a lot of my buying afterwards, after all that occurred.
So yeah, I'm a fan of Uphold. They do the right thing.
I hate this wig on Casper.
It makes it so ugly.
What do you think of Casper, Jackie?
Well, the best way to go about that ugly wig
is to just delete it.
Yeah.
Like, remember, if you don't like something, just delete it.
But I mean, in this sense, it really
does make sense to delete it.
Like, that wig is the 10 stands and uh you know there is really no volume in it it just
makes the chart look uh weird and so feel free to to blend it with your background
with your background and pretend it didn't happen
and i do agree here with barry but although i would add that
what will lead us out of here is what you say barry the utility with real world usage
but that will bring the speculation again at some point i mean it's a
natural part right like speculation is good speculation is good and it will be part of every
market at any given time but it cannot be the number one thing leading the market as it was in 2023 and four
yeah I feel like meme coins need to take a backseat for a little bit yeah yeah I
mean I think I think meme coins will be with us forever but uh but like again they cannot
be leading the market yeah they can't lead the market cycle it was backwards there should be
utility bitcoin eat utility and then you should see that the money flow down, you know, into stuff like that.
This go like last go around, it was the opposite.
You know, it was like everyone was front running everything going to the very end.
Yeah.
I have no appetite for anything like that other than like blue chip names,
you know, even then.
Yeah.
So I really have an appetite for it.
I'd rather just invest in stuff.
I know that's going to change the future of finance or crypto or whatever,
you know, future of France.
I mean, there's probably only one meme coin.
I feel like you're either going like Pepe or you go low, low, low cap.
Yeah.
This is probably not worth the beta or the risk to hold it for the beta that you'd be getting.
it for the beta that you'd be getting but guys do do you feel like youtubers I
But.
don't feel like a youtuber here you want to know a funny story man honestly you
guys did you guys see that stuff with tjr
trades over the weekend you know who that is tory trades no tjr trades he's like he's like one of
those uh larpy forex course sellers but he trades a lot of crypto and um it's funny because he got exposed over the weekend for being
you know and obviously like a fraud which in my opinion was not ever that hard to to discern but
i can understand like if you're coming into trading you're like wow this guy definitely
knows what he's talking about but a few weeks ago my wife uh asked me what i thought about this guy's opinion on the market not tjr but one of his
friends who is a fitness influencer who's like actively you know claiming to to trade on on
social media and selling courses and she asked me what i thought and i watched this guy for about
20 seconds and i'm like yeah this dude's a larp like i don't watch anymore this dude is
clearly like what they do what they do is they uh they they're basically just like selling you on ict
uh very very basic level ict concepts and then they get you to stay with like lifestyle content
and so yeah that we're talking about like beginners in youtube that just made me think about it
um because i was like yeah there's it's this guy actually trying to teach people how to trade
because he is not this is not it man and it comes out you know two or three weeks later like tjr
which he who does a very similar thing to this guy um you know he's just a he's a scammer so you know i thought that
was pretty funny but this is like when people think about trading they what they see on social
media like are these guys selling lifestyle they're really kind of selling lifestyle with
very basic level ict concepts as like yeah so yeah yeah it sucks. It's hard for people to tell the difference, you know, from the good and the bad.
It's, it sucks.
Sad.
It's okay, Louie.
It's all right.
I know your capability as a trader.
Oh man.
We'll last the test of time.
That's all that matters.
We'll not last the rest.
Oh, hey, I mean, we've got years of receipts just on this YouTube channel. Yeah.
Yeah.
What do we want to look at here?
What peaks your interest?
Huh?
What peaks your interest?
I want the S&P to figure it out.
Maybe you could tell me this.
Why did the US 500 not make a new low, but the S&P did?
What do you mean?
See, like the US 500?
Because one is traded during US open hours and the other is trading on Forex.
Ah, yeah.
That's what it is i mean the
low that you're looking at on the us well the low was made during normal market hours so it was
i think it was last sunday no this low that the s p made was friday right that one i meant the uh
the low that you're uh you're talking about that the us 500 made right the uh the one before that
that was made on a sunday night so lower than this yeah gotcha gotcha gotcha gotcha okay that
makes sense that makes sense yeah because that was something i was watching friday i was like oh well the s p swept it slow
us 500 didn't i was a little like torn on it that makes what is this man this is like the second time i read someone discuss a louis nose ring louis with the nose ring would rule the youtube
louis that just reminded me of that conversation i know it's on friday i was
thinking about it i this morning i gotta look into it that'd be funny
um we'll tell you later jack is this pretty funny
um yeah i mentioned this i think last week when it occurred,
I think it's pertinent to bring it up again.
Um, you know, for me, this move on Monday,
this, this, what I like to call a single day reversal, not confirmed yet.
Um, you know, we saw like the volume profile. One, it's good that you
see a big gap down, you see a big buyback back inside your structure. We call that a single
day reversal. What's important is that it occurs on extremely high volume. That's the other side
of the equation. Price action is price action, but if you don't have high volume it's it's playing tricks
the market's playing tricks on you so if it's on high volume there's a lot more likelihood you know
that it's it's a legitimate move um so you know i like that move on monday i talked about the
possibilities of you know obviously retracing a lot of this move but as long as you don't negate
that monday low um they that Monday low, they could bounce
price around here all they want. As long as this low is respected, you still have a chance
of a reversal as long as this low is respected. So I talked about that and I talked about
we haven't seen volume like this since here. This is a big big move we haven't seen big volume like this since the april
lows of 2025 and so if you look at this move that occurred back then i think we're seeing a lot of
similarities um let me turn off volume now since it's going to take up the whole chart
but this is kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing similar price action with a similar volume profile on the daily
year, but right where you see right.
Big gap down bang.
Boom.
Big reaction.
You get a big, big buyback, right?
Pass the gap down pretty much reverse the entire gap.
Everyone gets bullish chasing this move, right? Back the gap down, pretty much reverse the entire gap. Everyone gets bullish chasing this
move, right? Back to the upside. And then what happens? Oh, right. Late longers get wrecked.
Anyone who chasing this move, who got bearish here, chasing longs here, bang, they get wrecked.
And you pretty much kind of retrace the entire initial bounce but what do you notice you make a higher low you respect
your low and then boom you know meat stick and then you start your your rally off the lows uh
this kind of price sequence is i think is kind of what we're seeing now right and i talked about this
being a possibility where people get caught up in the day-to-day, promotions, blah, blah, blah. And this could be what we're seeing,
right? You see the similarities here? Boom, big gap down, bearish, everybody bearish, right? Scared.
Boom, big walk up, big single day reversal, erase the gap down. Everyone starts getting bullish,
chasing price back after getting
bearish at the lows. What occurs? Boom. Big, big sell-off back to the low. Everyone gets nervous
again. Everyone thinks we're going to sweep the low, make fresh lows. What do we do? We respect
the low. We make a higher low. We could be gearing up for that next move up, which would be great
if we could see 6 50 6700 area our our
market structure reclaimed you get something like that you know i'm looking for a move back the
other way but you know it's interesting that the daily volume is the same on this move and
the price action a lower time frame is looking almost the same as well. Um, so I'm liking what I'm seeing, right?
I'm liking what I'm seeing.
Um, but we need, we need to stick the landing, right?
We need to see price reclaim this market structure that we lost to have a shot.
But if we do, you know, I'm looking for a squeeze and taking all of these highs
out, so it's a little s p
analysis there um curious your guys's thoughts um because if we don't i think we're coming down to
6500 at a minimum i think the uh at least the bleed, I would say the last two weeks is mostly
from financials dragging down the index, right? Which is why we now see this divergence between
the Dow and tech, which has, you know, kind of just like holding the range still. So I think you
need to see financials reverse, which means we need to see the move index come down. Lo and behold, we've got a rates decision later this week that I feel
like actually could be kind of important. I'm not really going to be paying attention too much to
FOMC itself. Not that Wednesday, huh? Yeah. We got to hear from Jerome Powell, I think,
one more time or two more times. I can't quite can't quite remember and then i think he's out in may right yes i was gonna ask
you guys what do you think about like what are your thoughts heading into this fomc and it being
probably the like last decision making fomcC from Powell, I suppose.
Because I think everyone expects rates to stay the same.
But over the next one, he's probably
going to be saying just farewells, I suppose.
So this is the last real Jerome Powell FOMC, man.
The end of an era yeah for sure yeah
yeah it's gonna be weird seeing someone else do those
meetings what what other sauce the mark do you think we will see any any specific market
reaction do we think it's just going to be like a total nothing burger
Do we think it's just going to be like a total nothing burger?
Bet he says something along the lines of how energy
expectations could lead to like
Could be worth monitoring
I'm not gonna speculate on whether or not he's gonna cut rates hike rates leave them steady
dot plots none of that, but what i will say i'm looking at
tlt and tlt looks like it wants to go a good bit lower from here which would imply that rates could
get a positive catalyst which isn't really like in line necessarily with my thematic bias but i think tlt looks horrible horrible
euthanasia and if it's going lower potentially in a big way do we get some news on wednesday that
maybe uh corresponds maybe not with like an explicit rate hike, but maybe like a dot plot that's a little bit more aggressive in 2026.
Yeah, I agree.
This does look horrible.
I can't imagine him surprising the market.
He's never done that.
I don't think he's going to do that the last one or two of his meetings.
And he's going to be, I think it's going to be the same. We are data dependent,
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You know, no clear answer as to what they're going to do.
Um, I can't picture them talking about raising rates with like the last, um, economic data we
got, you know, I feel like it wasn't the greatest economic numbers.
So, but yeah, he could mention inflation being an issue with oil prices elevated. That could maybe spur some speculation in a way.
But I really, I think at the markets at this point,
it's just forward looking to what the next chair is going to do.
Because, you know, Jerome Powell to do um because uh you know jerome powell
has has done a good you know overall other than covid you know what else we were going to do
but they printed a bunch of money but we've never been in a situation like that but overall you can't
you know i think i think the guy did a pretty good job right it's not his fault that the crypto asset
class took a giant fat shit on itself.
The rest of the asset markets did well under his regime, pretty much.
So, yeah, I don't think any surprises.
Probably in the market, probably just forward looking to the next Fed share and what he's going to do, pretty much,
which if I had to guess is cut rates as far as we've been told.
Tyler's living the dream, man.
He's exiting.
As long as the market doesn't collapse before he leaves in two months,
he's going to be remembered very fondly.
Which is nuts.
I just cannot go with it at all
because he's probably one of the worst fed chairs in a long time he literally
was the number one reason why we like like the dollar had the highest inflation in 60 years like
they literally started to hike so light and he started like super badly. Again, one of the worst Fed shares in a long time.
Yet, because of recency bias, and this is once again what's the problem with the current crypto market, it has also a problem with recency bias.
People cannot think straight, but when you look at it, I agree, he did really well in the second part of his term.
And that's what he will be remembered for.
And he's a nice looking, you know, grandpa.
And he speaks nicely and wears nice ties.
But he did really horrible.
That's just a fact.
Like, he said inflation is transitory.
There's no problems. Boom. You know, everything spikes. He said inflation is transitory, there's no problems,
boom, everything spikes, he's light to the party.
And no,
he's
done really bad. Overall, he's
done really bad.
And I mean,
to be fair,
he also
had the situation much tougher than his predecessors.
I'm not sure how to pronounce it.
No, you got it right.
You got it right.
Yeah, perfect.
He had it much tougher because obviously the situation wasn't as bad as during his terms.
So I...
None of them had COVID to deal with.
Yeah, none of them had COVID to deal with, that's for sure.
And then, you know, the inflation that it cost, but nonetheless...
There's no economic model that, you know...
Yeah, we still don't know.
I mean, in fairness, I still don't think that we've fully, like,
dissolved all of the COVID stuff. Right.
Because technically that debt that was taken during 2020 and 2021 is maturing or actively maturing in 2025 and 2026.
So like we don't know entirely what the end result for COVID is going to be just yet.
But he was kind of in a box, right? Like,
what is he supposed to do? What is, were they just supposed to let the world economy completely crash into a depression? No, you can't do that. But I do think COVID was kind of a
convenient way for them to continue to kick the can down the road because a lot of the corporate debt that
matured that had was taken like in the wake of the gfc matured in 2018 to 2020 and so yeah we
just kind of had like we just so happened to have this very convenient excuse to print lots and lots
and lots of money and cut rates to zero so i guess well maybe there is there are no consequences for that other than
kind of like inflation being i mean obviously like current prices is a pretty hard time i have a hard
time seeing prices for a lot of stuff come down materially at least certainly not in the 2020
levels so you know that is lasting but market impacts know, we don't know truthfully if, you know, if it was actually a good or bad thing, the whole COVID printing.
So I guess maybe Jerome Powell's legacy is going to be decided by history.
Yeah, but I mean, when I look back at the idiotic EU leaders, like lots of them did really dumb choices and they are no longer in power.
But only now all the problems are starting to come out of the closet.
But nobody comes to them and blames them much really publicly
because they are nowhere to be seen anymore.
So it's like nobody cares.
But the people to blame are those beforehand.
So I think, you know, Powell will do pretty well going forward.
Again, recency bias plus he's going to be gone by then.
But I wouldn't blame him as much as you said, you know, during COVID,
like when you're going to cut rates and ease, you know,
like when people have to stay in the home because government does something.
Yeah, I agree with you.
You probably, like, I'm not a fan of central banking obviously but uh
but like once it's at place and if you were at the job and appointed to it then you would do the
like like i understand you know you do that but i think what what was done wrong was afterward
when they didn't hike when it was obvious that the inflation is going to spiral
out of control like they were really late and that caused all the problems they were late but
i also think they kind of like they telegraphed it way in advance i think to maybe, maybe to keep the market from like totally falling off a cliff because I mean,
in 2022, the market was super like, yeah, there was a lot of bad stuff that happened with inflation.
And we had a lot of, obviously a lot of really high inflation in 2022, but at the same time,
the market was very well hedged in 2022, which is kind of why we had this, like, stair-step decline
rather than a super aggressive one.
So I don't know.
I mean, I guess it's kind of like they probably could have cut rates sooner,
but I think because they telegraphed the hike so well
or so, like, far in advance,
it kept the market from probably a larger decline.
Which I think would be beneficial till today.
Like as you know, recessions and bear markets
are a good thing, right?
Like when a company ends,
it doesn't have to be necessarily a bad thing
because the market cleans up, and then you can restart far better.
But, so yeah.
We don't want too much can kicking.
Yeah.
I mean, you got to control, control burns of the brush and
the forest.
You don't want a whole forest fire
as a consequence of not doing
proper management.
That's kind of how I view it.
Going back, I just, again,
my final
final say is that I cannot
deem Paul as being that I cannot deem Pavel as being like...
I cannot cope with the fact how he's persevered versus what he has actually done.
I don't blame him, but I don't think he deserves the recognition for his term that he gets because yes he had it hard
but the decisions were actually pretty late yeah very too slow too late Pat
too late Jerome late oh true late I mean there is something to it how funny would it be if he's got
one more curveball just for
just for dear old Donald
I wouldn't be surprised
yeah that would be
how much fun would it be if he threw a hike
by 700
just like
fuck your zero DTE
opium fuck the economy
I am out of this shit. Hiking by 75 BPS. Ciao.
I'm not expecting him to hike, but I feel like we probably will get some dot plot guidance for like fewer rate cuts this year because of the just like explosion, obviously, in energy over the last few weeks.
Probably just fewer cuts cuts that's my guess
i haven't checked the prediction market for quite a while let me see
all right so the absolute consensus is 99.1% that rates will stay paused.
And then they should actually, the current consensus by the market, which maybe be a little bit, I don't think that's the right consensus.
What, no change? There's no change till end of the year pretty much that rate should stay the same as they are for the rest of the year and i i think
with kevin wars getting appointed by trump i think there'll there'll be at least two rate cuts
i don't really have a super strong opinion on it but i'm bearish on tlt that's my uh it's my read I mean, when you look at the Japanese bond market, the third year is trading at 3.5%
while the rates are at 0.75.
So yeah, I mean USDJPY looks ready to break out, which would imply that they're probably
going to sell treasuries to defend the yen.
In my opinion, but they have to.
Been watching the Nikkei with great intrigue. Anyways, guys, how about we wrap things up?
We can wrap things up.
I'm worried to look at the like button today.
Yeah, that's fair.
You had a request at the beginning of the show.
Let's see if it was fulfilled.
Let me see.
I'm worried about what this like button is going to look like.
Okay.
It's pretty bad. it's pretty bad that's pretty bad but we uh we appreciate you guys for tuning in uh especially everybody who shows up every day to uh or you know not every
day because we're live four days out of the week but you guys know what i mean we appreciate our
regulars our newcomers if you are new to, guys, we do market check throughout the week, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
So the next time we go live, we will be hearing from Jerome Powell on the same day.
We'll see what markets give us into and out of that.
But if you enjoyed market check today, like I said, we're live four days out of the week.
And our typical start time is around 11 30 a.m
eastern standard time um but also make sure to uh to check out market talk hosted by the legendary
king wabi later this afternoon we host that show throughout the week guys uh our typical start time
is around 3 45 eastern standard um so you can catch wabi and a whole cast of characters later
this afternoon as well as pretty much every afternoon throughout the week.
If you're looking for a great way to finish up your day,
looking for a little bit more market commentary, analysis, and alpha,
I would say ultimately a good time as well.
Check out Market Talk.
I'll be there throughout the week, and so will other members of the BB team.
But thank you guys for tuning in, like I said.
We'll see you again on Wednesday.
Until then, though, thank you again, as always.
Hit the like button if you want.
And, of course, stay safe.
Hit it even if you don't want.
Just hit it.
Hit the like button even if you don't like us.
That way you can keep us
on air so you can keep making fun of us but uh y'all have a good one
