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GOOGLE EARNINGS | NEW ETF LAUNCH $BTYB WITH VISTASHARES
Recorded: Feb. 4, 2026 Duration: 2:32:42Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, crypto enthusiasts are closely monitoring the resurgence of Ethereum and Bitcoin, alongside significant earnings reports from major tech players like Google and Qualcomm. The conversation highlights emerging trends, potential partnerships, and the ongoing interest in yield opportunities within the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. All right. What is up, everybody? I hope you are all ready and excited for another day of stocks on spaces.
My individual stock portfolio is a little bit red. I'm assuming the ETF portfolio is also a
little bit red. This is an earnings basis. I will switch that title in a little bit. Google,
Google reporting earnings today after the close. I believe we were talking yesterday,
Stock Talk Spaces, Stock Talk name,
NERSIS, I also believe is going to be reporting earnings, ENS.
Let's double check into this.
Feb 4th after the close, around 4.15 p.m. Eastern,
you should be getting ENS, which is a Stock Talk name, but Google, Qualcomm, Arm, Elf Beauty, Snapchat, etc.,
will be reporting earnings during this spaces.
So I'm looking forward to it.
I hope you guys are all as well.
We are a little bit off of the lows from the day.
We were down, my individual stock portfolio was down as much as 3-4% earlier.
Now we're down just 2-2.5%.
So a little bit of a come up off the highs.
Apple is performing pretty well.
Crypto is underperforming.
Ethereum got close to 2k. Bitcoin getting closer to 70k we shall see what ends up happening there
if they can uh get a little bit of a base and then start some some incline or uh if we're in
a little bit of a free fall a crypto winter some could call it names like Eli Lilly Honeywell up
a little bit but a little bit more red than green I am seeing
when I'm taking a quick scan through the watch list.
Definitely a little bit of green now.
And a couple names that are up a decent a bit.
Obviously, we did have those AMD earnings yesterday.
AMD stock was down as much as 16%, 17% earlier, down 16% right now.
Stock has dropped around $50 billion in market cap today.
So yeah, AMD's numbers, we listened to them live on the spaces.
They came in a little bit below what was expected.
Stock taking a hit there.
I do see we have Mr. Jeffrey Hirsch joining us up here, the Almanac trader.
I know you're very big into the seasonalities.
Shout out to the Stock Traders Almanac.
But I'd love to kick it over to you first.
Start off this conversation.
Hear how you are doing, sir.
It is a wild market.
Yeah, by request, kicking it off.
Thank you for that.
Appreciate it.
Can you hear me all right?
Yep, we got you.
All right, man.
Listen, I've been out from the spaces for a little while.
Had some stuff going on.
But I'm glad to be back.
And I appreciate you letting me kick it off. I got to jump over to my subscriber members webinar that
we're doing at four o'clock today. So seasonality, I mean, it's January barometer season. Santa
failed to call by a hair on the S&P. Not a big deal. first five days were up but the january barometer as if you
you know look at my my feed there we put out a chart the other day that shows the performance
of the market the next 11 and next 12 months when you have an up january versus the down january
compared to all the other months and it you, it's a nice little bar chart.
It's head and shoulders above everything else.
So, you know, when the market's up in January, things are perceived as pretty well by the market.
You know, it's why we call it a barometer.
And, you know, we got a little selling here, some rotation going on.
Not to be, you know, a seasonal snob, but it's kind of typical in February.
We call it the weak link of the best six months to see some selling here.
I'm sure there are, you know, earnings and other mixed results that we're seeing out
there.
There's definitely some geopolitical and political and domestic stuff going on.
The market gives a little jitters
there. But overall,
we expect a pause in February.
It's really a pause that
refreshes. Getting a positive January
barometer confirmed or affirmed
in my forecast for 8-12%
for the year.
But that doesn't
preclude us from the weak spot of the four-year cycle. There's Q2, Q3 period in the mid the year. But that doesn't preclude us from the weak spot of the four-year cycle,
this Q2, Q3 period of the midterm year. Granted, the sixth year of the presidency,
the second midterm year is stronger. So, you know, overall, bullish on the year,
expecting some chop. We did a little run, a little study on streaks for the Dow, nine months up in a row.
January was the ninth month up in a row for the Dow.
The next couple of months are pretty good, but after that, the returns start to fade off,
sort of dovetails with the weak spot of the four-year cycle, the worst six months, you know, the May to October period,
the Celema period.
But there's a lot of rotation going on,
and that's not such a horrible thing.
I mean, we got into a couple of seasonal sectors.
Copper, I own the Miners, the Cop X,
which is, I think, my current best-performing holding,
you know, open position right now.
Going to that a little bit ahead.
I mean, it was a seasonal setup, but also we're getting –
What do you think of those ones?
What's, like, the timeframe on that one?
I mean, it's the December to May seasonal trade.
And, you know, if we hit our target, great.
Otherwise, they'll probably tighten up when we get into May if it's still up there.
I mean, the technical chart we're looking at, there's some consolidation right there.
But I'm not picking an individual stock there, just the basket, the ETF.
And same thing with the energy stocks, the XLE and XCS ETFs.
We got into those. Those are doing well. And transports.
I mean, these are some, you know,
seasonal sector trades that are working quite well.
Can I actually ask you another question on the copper?
Why is this a seasonally strong period?
A lot of people I know have been getting excited around it,
calling it like a data center play or whatever,
but I'm curious seasonality, what's interesting for you there?
Well, I mean, December is the lull of the construction season. I mean, you know, most of the world lives in the northern hemisphere, and it's winter.
We have a nice winter right now, that's for sure.
So it's just really the low of the construction, the building season, that you see that December low, and it runs into May.
Excuse me, as, you know, construction and housing kicks in.
So that's the theory or the, you know, rationale behind the copper season.
You know, and same thing with heating, you know, and air conditioning impacting energy.
energy, we see that sort of December, February low. We've had some other issues, pardon me,
We see that sort of December, February low.
other than seasonals. But we did get a nice December, you know, low point in the energy
stocks, kind of when things are between seasons. So it's really about, you know know usage on the utility and and you know retail side and
then the trainees to which you know everything is getting delivered I mean
isn't Amazon a transport company now Amazon's an everything company where's
my delivery it's late well one thing I'm learning here in Puerto Rico is same-day delivery.
Not a thing.
Not a thing.
I'm expecting a two-week delivery or something like that still down here.
My wife was just down there with her girlfriends.
They had a good time.
I think I did cut you off, though.
I don't know if you were going down other topics there.
You got yourself to finish.
No, no.
That's all right.
I think the seasonals are important right here.
I mean, it's confirming the bullish outlook.
You know, that's what I'm looking at.
You know, it's OK for a little pause here.
Let's not get, you know, our motto right now is tune out the noise and look at the underlying economic reading.
I mean, the initial claims for jobs is pretty encouraging that it came back down. One of the concerns is this
impact of AI on white collar jobs. We're seeing that, I guess, in the software stocks.
Get your kids to go learn how to be plumbers and electricians to help build the data centers.
But also, there's a profitability delay or question,
and I think that's starting to come home to be a headwind for the market.
Are we really going to make any money with AI in the short term here?
Hey, Jeff. It's Mike. How are you?
Good. What's up?
How do the midterms play into your indicators?
Because this is a little bit different of a year.
Yeah, I mean, it plays in.
Everyone came in a little bit more negative with the midterm angle.
But if you look at the chart that I've put out there, at least it's in my newsletter feed.
I've got it updated in my webinar.
I'm doing a public one next week.
But the sixth year of the presidency is much more bullish.
It's kind of like the cementing the legacy year.
I mean, you can feel it already.
I mean, I don't know about locally for you guys, but it's starting to heat up with the congressional battles.
They got raised within margins.
And, you know, in the first midterm year, the market tends to tank. I mean, let's not, you know, newsflash, every president's going to disappoint the people.
I mean, they're not going to be able to deliver on everything they said, whether you like
them or didn't like them or voted or not voted, they're going to disappoint.
And that's what creates that midterm weakness, that weak spot that I spoke about, Q2, Q3.
But it also sets up that sweet spot, you know, Q4 into the next year, which is pretty huge.
But the difference that you're talking about, the six years, important because this is a president who's not going to run again.
And they're trying to cement their legacy.
And they realized and they deal with the fact that time is running out because they're probably going to lose control, you know, especially this time around, of Congress.
And they're not going to be able to push through their agenda.
So they're really trying to get everything done that they can.
Thanks, Jeff.
Good question.
I asked you about crypto right now, which has been struggling a little, we could say.
Yeah, we're done with that for this season.
I mean, crypto midterm year, I mean, there's only like three of them.
They're all red down 50%.
And, you know, we broke through the support.
I think that sell-off back in October, the sort of deleveraging event,
was the beginning of the current, you know, malaise.
I mean, we tried to trade out a couple times season they
didn't perform in the fourth quarter like it's like it's supposed to or like
it historically has that's a negative indicator I got a couple of slides on
that you know for today and I think it's time to wait it out I don't think we
bought them yet I see it's even redder today, testing those intraday lows.
You know, I traded the IBIT for a while.
I did well with it a couple of years ago.
This time, you know, I was out at 52.
So I took some losses, licked my wounds and moved on.
I'm not really enamored with crypto trade right here.
Midterm year impact is not strong. And it didn't show up for the bullish season.
So that's a negative in my book.
That's a negative indicator.
So I think we've got to move on to the next thing.
That's fair.
That's fair.
Yeah.
There's plenty out there.
I mean, there's foreign stocks.
There's small stocks.
Do you trade a lot of foreign stocks?
Only in the ETFs.
I do not.
We've got the European ETFs in our portfolio.
But I know some colleagues and friends that are doing well with the foreign stocks.
That's not my bag.
But I think you can do, you know,
participate with some of the exchange-traded funds there.
I mean, just I found just sticking to the sector rotation calendar
and the off-the-radar stocks that we find,
sticking to my buy limits and stop losses
and not trying to be too smart is the best strategy.
Anything I try to do fancy or, like, do fancy or off the seat of my pants,
I usually get burned.
So I just got to stick to our – eat our own cook and stick to our system.
Yeah, that makes sense.
That makes sense.
Well, I appreciate you guys.
Let me kick it off.
I'm going to jump and go get ready for my present.
I appreciate you.
I'm going to jump and go get ready for my present.
I appreciate you for hanging out with us here in the first 10-15 minutes of Stocks on Spaces.
Thank you, sir.
Like I was saying today, I appreciate you.
Like I was saying at the start, we have a bunch of earnings coming up after the close today.
Google, Qualcomm, Armholding, Snapchat, Stock Talk Weekly has a name and nurses ens reporting earnings i'm sure
there's a few other that people are interested in so get excited we will get those numbers
live out on this spaces options mike how you doing sir evan i'm good man not so warm like
you but doing good it's actually a little chilly here it's's not, it's, but, but yeah, no, I'm still doing well. Still warmer than you.
So that's not bad.
Indeed.
Isn't this a fun little market we're in?
It's a fun little market.
What's the, what's standing out for you here?
There's a lot of names.
I'm going through my 52 week high list and 52 week low list right now.
There's a good amount of names on both.
So many names on the 52 week high list that i actually had to filter it to all-time highs so it took it down from like 260 large cap names to like uh one something uh
actually like 90 something there's names like walmart honeywell caterpillar exxon mobile
deer pokepola fedex mcdonald a lot of boring names honestly and then i look at the 52 week low list
and there's a lot of names on here as well that are popular. Netflix, Adobe, PayPal, MicroStrategy, Pinterest, Snapchat, Freedest, ServiceNow.
It's interesting.
It is an interesting market.
Salesforce, which I've got to move up here.
So old boomer names hitting 52-week highs.
Oh, I mean, Salesforce is not hitting 52-week lows.
Yeah.
I mean, it's a market's rotated.
The market wants stuff now.
It wants things you can put its hands on.
It wants safety, like consumer staples, Coke, Pepsi, Colgate, for example, right?
We're seeing energy having another strong day.
Exxon Mobil new all-time highs.
Chevron getting close.
XLF all-time highs.
Sorry, XLE all-time highs.
The financial, morgan with another
nice day the regional banks kre a nice day boeing just popped up high highs of the day uh you said
walmart costco right there's very specific sectors and if you look across the market market breadth
is actually still fairly strong other than nasdaq which is absolutely horrific what they don't want
right now is they don't want tech they don't want want these high flyers. We're seeing names like ONDS and Rocket Lab, OKLL, all getting just dumped.
We talked about that. Some of these names, they shoot up high, they can come back in. They're dumping anything tech related.
And the thing I intend to worry about here is like amd's report last night was a great report and you don't let anybody tell you it wasn't it was a very good report they got it up well their
margins are getting even better the market's throwing a tantrum and it's down over 10 plus
percent because uh they're not getting that explosive move right they want that nvidia
move and guidance they want that big guide up like sandus gave and micron and and seagate right but
they're not getting that so you know they're
dumping it because it's only a slow and steady move there uh which is you know kind of interesting
to me um apple is one of the few names in tech that is holding its own apple up again today into
this 275 area continues to look solid and look good you know and again it's you know tech but
also the phones there's tangible assets there right they're selling things chipotle who they didn't like to report they bought it all back
and an engulfing candle is up trading into the 40 area today so the market's looking for different
things it's not looking to dump we keep getting these iran headlines you know um meetings off
meetings on meetings off now the meeting's back on And the market's just gyrating on these volumes up for 84 million shares on the SPY today.
It's, you know, we're seeing a lot of volume on this today.
You know, I worry about, you know, names like Google and Amazon tonight,
are they just going to sell?
Meta had that good report and completely filled that huge gap up.
You know, you're seeing just a lot of profit taking here,
selling of the software names, the AI trade.
You know, we talked last year about a bubble, but this market has completely, completely deflated that bubble here over the last month or a couple of months.
Yet the indexes hold in.
You know, again, under the covers, it's not all that bad.
It's a lot of rotation.
There's a lot of rotation from names that we don't usually trade.
You don't consider a name like Pepsi or Coke as a quick mover for a trader, but they're actually moving really well lately.
So just a very big change in dynamics in this market.
And, you know, we'll see where this takes us.
Right now, the SPY went below the 50-day today, but bounced and came back up and remains in this little uptrend that it has going a series of higher lows.
And, you know, we haven't broken anything yet not yet anyway
haven't broke anything yet and you know we are hanging out here here near all-time highs
i know a lot of names under the hood are there's definitely a lot of pain in the couple sectors but
definitely a lot of stuff that is holding up. It's interesting which ones are working and which ones aren't right
now. I do want to bring
Sam Solid into it. If anyone doesn't
know Sam, who is the host
of the Solid Report for the Wolf
Financial page, I know
you'll be live during the earnings
on the live stream on the
Wolf channel and your own one as well.
Shout out to you,
everyone there. I know you have a little bit of a different and a little bit more of a technical take. I'm out to you, Amit, and everyone there. But I know
you have a little bit of a different, a little bit more of a technical take. I'm wondering if
you have any thoughts on what you'll be watching for these earnings we have coming up after the
close today. Again, names like Google, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, all reporting earnings, Snapchat,
etc. I'd be curious if there's any of those ones, any other of the companies that are reporting
from the technical take, which you'll be watching, Sam?
Yeah, I'm looking forward to the Qualcomm earnings, to be honest.
I think this is going to give us more light as far as the production of chips, especially in the U.S. goes.
I mean, we did see that crazy news about Qualcomm just a couple of months ago.
Its stock was like $200.
Here it is much lower than where it was before the news came
out. So it's pretty interesting dynamic over there. Do you have a starter position in Qualcomm?
I like to open up a starter. So it'll kind of encourage me to do more research in a company.
You know, it's just to get some skin in it. But I would like to know if there's more involvement
or anything good that they can
say as far as any partnership goes.
I think when it comes to Qualcomm, there's a few things that they do.
Um, there, there's the chip designing of course, for the ASIC chips, but mostly for, uh, EVs
as well as, uh, mobile devices, right?
So if we see the mobile device market come back, this is obviously going to benefit off that,
you know, smartphones, laptops, and so on.
But personal computing really has been lagging
for quite some time,
which is probably the reason that stock
isn't doing so great.
And also they have a large exposure to vehicles,
but more specifically in electronic vehicles or EVs, right?
So that's my bull case for it,
for those two markets to come back.
But EV has already shown a nice progression back,
especially as rates do lower.
But at the end of the day,
honestly, really none of this matters
if Warsh comes in here
and it doesn't matter if he cuts rates or not.
I don't think rates are important or as important.
I think what's more important is Fed balance sheet expansion, right? So if Warsh comes in here
and he says, we're no longer going to do QE or quantitative easing, and we're no longer going to
buy, what is it like $30 billion, $40 billion in bonds and treasury bonds off the open market
and push more liquidity in the system. He comes here and says he's going to stop doing that.
Well, then I think that's just confirmation that a lot of these tech companies and software
companies that borrow debt at much, much lower rates, but also the fact that there is no
buyer of last resort that's willing to lift up the floor for a lot of these bonds.
I think that's going to pose a very big problem for a lot of these bonds, I think that's going to pose a very big problem
for a lot of these software companies and a lot of these semiconductor companies that,
of course, have to borrow capital in order to fund their enterprises and expand cash flows
and expand profit margins and increase growth, right?
So if you cut off that cheap debt or if the Fed is not going to be pushing more liquidity
into the system, then that will
be a problem for tech. And it's possible that that is the reason why the market is kind of in this
topping state, because we don't have any clarity on that. I mean, we don't know what Warsh's moves
are, and Trump keeps on top of my industry, and the market doesn't care about industry. I don't
care about industry. I really don't. Matters more is quantitative easing.
If we don't get that juice, then the market's not going to like it for tech, right? That's just
how it's going to go. And software is very vulnerable for that. So you see all this
agentic AI, CloudX, you see Anthropic, CloudBot, and all that stuff is a scary, scary news for the market. But
I don't think that's the real fear. The real fear and really what matters the most is what the Fed
is going to do because they are the ones who determine the liquidity in the system, right?
So if the Fed is not buying these bonds and not buying mortgage-backed securities and whatever
securities and whatever it is, and they're not adding more liquidity to the system. And the
it is, then they're not adding more liquidity to the system and the government can only do so much.
government can only do so much. You need the Fed to work with the treasury and to work with Wall
Street as well. So, you know, going to continue to monitor that situation. I'm not going to like
liquidate the portfolio because it's like, well, Warsh is going to have this disaster. I think
the themes are still moving on. There's still a lot of green. There's still a lot of stocks that
are green today. Namely uh there was some news about
uh side time having a merger with uh renaissance which are both uh which are both fabricators and
side time is actually one of the competitors against on semiconductor so on semiconductor
is up like five percent today i think it's really on the back of that news i i don't they they didn't
have any news that i could see happening today, but the chart looked constructively bullish, so continuing to stay along that one.
Zeta, maybe I'm a bag holder, maybe I'm not.
But I think, you know, I've said this many times on the show is that, look, you got to know what you own, right?
right so if you're if your favorite fooers are trying to tell you that a stock is going to go
to whatever dollar amount in a short period of time we saw the same thing they have to iron i
mean i remember seeing that post where iron was like 45 bucks and those news of an anthropic uh
deal coming up soon and the stock went to like 60 bucks and everyone was like holy cow iron's
got look at it's like 40 bucks now 45 bucks bucks now, right? It's back to where it was before. It was lower earlier today.
And the big fear between all this, I think it really comes down to who's funding these
data centers, who's going to fund all of the debt to build out these data centers.
And if we don't have Fed balance sheet expansion, that's terrible for liquidity.
That's why Bitcoin is going down.
That is the reason why tech stocks are going down.
And this is a major component.
Debt is a major component for these data center companies and also their clients as well.
And if that juice gets cut off, these highly capital exponential expense companies, namely your irons or nebiuses and so
on, raising billions of dollars of capital to fund their build out with the assumption they're
going to be able to collect the ARRs that they're promising in 2026 beyond. Those are going to get
decimated, right? So know what you owe, know how, know what impacts which one. And good Lord, please don't full port anything.
I just, I see that happen.
And you get days like today, especially when you're levered up in high margin, you're getting
smacked today, right?
Like you are getting decimated today.
And you know, the market is a 1% away from all time highs.
The RSP is sitting here at $200 a share.
It is about to have a closing all-time high, right?
The market is not collapsing.
It's just collapsing in certain sectors and certain regions of the stock market.
And if you are heavily concentrated in those regions of the stock market that are down
double digits today, you are probably having a great two years, but today you're feeling the pain, right? So,
you know, it's SockTalk talks about that low cost basis and that's super important, right? It's
important because it's like you zoom out, it's like, oh, well, this chart still looks good.
You zoom out on S&P 500 and that chart looks amazing. Like the S&P 500 looks just fine.
There's a lot of software stocks that look just fine nvidia looks fine amd looks fine
and so maybe not amd but a lot of these stocks look fine but if you were chasing chasing these
stocks in the last like couple of months you're you're getting slaughtered especially if you're
playing with call options so you know i would really hand it to people like look do your research
that includes looking the charts yeah go ahead no I appreciate you. I was just jumping in.
Was there any other thoughts on the earnings up after the flows today?
I know you talked a little bit about Qualcomm there.
Do you have any thoughts on these Google earnings we have coming?
What will you be watching?
I'm obviously watching Google.
I think if you're looking at the stock market, you're going to be seeing what's happening
at Google because that's like a $4 trillion company right there.
So it's going to move the market.
There's a lot of other companies that- What part of of it is there a specific part that you're interested in i know the market seems to be very intrigued by cloud obviously oh cloud
yeah cloud is probably the most interesting part of it i mean they're obviously winning when it
comes to search because they learn how to monetize they learned that they're going to start monetizing
ai search which is fine. Cloud is pretty important.
I think they were growing at like 30% plus last quarter.
I mean, it's not super important, you know, the way that cloud business actually runs,
because I'm sure they're going to be just fine.
But what I have noticed that a lot of enterprises are switching more into a hybrid or multi-cloud
approach, which is giving more business to Google.
But also Google has multiple partnerships
that they're building pretty tightly with a lot of these software companies. So that's pretty
important as well. I think it's going to be just fine as far as those numbers go, but that doesn't
really say what's going to happen with the stock, right? So it's like, they will dissect every
single little piece of that. If the stock is down 2%, they'll be like, oh, they had a spelling
error over here and their earnings report.
So the stocks will be down.
They will find a reason for it to be down.
They'll find a reason for it to be up.
And the market's going to dictate that move no matter the way that it goes, no matter
what those numbers are.
I'm telling you, whatever those numbers are, the market will do whatever it does.
So it's very difficult.
Like when Google is 150 bucks, different story.
50 bucks, different story.
But it's sitting at the all-time highs, markets at all-time highs.
But it's sitting at the all-time highs,
markets at all-time highs.
You know, it's, as long as they know SHIT the bed,
I think that stock is going to be just fine.
And I don't think it's going to dictate
what's going to happen in the stock market,
maybe temporarily.
But, you know, we do need to see
that cloud business continuing.
It doesn't need to like accelerate dramatically,
but continue to be up there.
It still needs to be 30% plus.
If that slows down
well that might be bad news for a lot of software companies a lot of them if that happens
i appreciate you sam like i said sam is gonna be live streaming that uh that google earnings we're
gonna be covering it live here i appreciate everyone there will be plenty of content coverage
coming up here in the next little bit make sure you are following the speakers up here we appreciate you all mr brian lund i'd
like to bring you into the conversation i don't know if you're watching any of these earnings we
have coming up after the close today any thoughts you want to share on them but uh but yeah what
are what's going on in your world uh today any new stories standing? Any movers standing out for you? Yeah. So I think today is a day when you want to make sure you know what sort of timeframe
you're trading in. If you're a long-term investor, I think days like today can be an opportunity for
you. There's something that we've been talking about in the Lund Loop, which is, for lack of a
better description, call it the generational wealth project. I believe that there's the potential,
not 100% sure, but there's the potential in the next three to five years for people to make some
generational wealth in the market, a la the late 90s during the internet boom, which by the way,
I was there. And so on a day like today, instead of freaking out about
what's going on, uh, right in front of your face today, you need to be a little bit longer. So
let's say you have some names that you think are, you know, potential winners over the long term.
Uh, that's when you would start getting into them slowly today. For example, like everyone likes
ONDS. Now I'm not saying that is, uh is going to be a winner over three to five years,
but let's say you think it is, right?
So when it's down two points a day, you're selling puts against it lower, right?
If it rallies, you get some of the premium back.
If it doesn't, you get it at a lower cost basis.
You're trying to think strategically in the short term based upon a long-term thesis.
There are other ways to make money in this market. I
mean, there was a nice trade to be had in Kava today, beautiful reversal in CMG. We've been in
Apple about 20 points lower. That is not stalling at all. A couple of weeks ago, we bought Devin
and Oxy calls, which are doing well. So there are ways to work in the market today.
But I think one of the things you need to think about is what timeframe are you trading in or
investing in? And can you arbitrage a short-term cashflow trading style against a longer-term
portfolio style to bring your, what I would call your
overall portfolio cost basis down. So for example, let's say your overall, your long-term portfolio
names are down, let's just say 20 grand today. But if you can cash flow banks 10 grand on short-term
strategic things, then once your long-term things get back to break even, you're already in the
profit. So you just have to think a little bit differently and not panic. I do think there's a lot of names that are very
oversold. I think we're due for a bounce. I would have preferred that we closed at the lows of the
day. It doesn't look like we're going to because I think we need to get one good flush at least to
get that bounce in play. But yeah, that's kind of what I've been thinking as, uh, as we watched
the red across the screen today. I'm intrigued to hear, uh, what's your timeframe on most of
the trades you're taking? So I have multiple timeframes. I mean, you don't have to be, it's,
it's not, you know, one or the other. I've got long-term retirement investment stuff that I don't manage myself that are managed by portfolio.
So let's reframe it.
When we're talking here the most, when you say your portfolio, what is the timeframe of the conversation you're having most of the time on stocks and spaces?
Or maybe I just asked you on Goin, what's the timeframe for these takes?
But I think it is a fair take. I think it is important to know timeframe.
Yeah, a hundred percent. So, I mean, for me, so I'm like 58, right? I like to retire.
Yeah. You know, I always say I like to retire, probably never will retire because I just love
this so much, but let's say I want to retire in my early sixties, right? 63, 64, 65. So that's a
five to seven year timeframe. Now, if you're
someone who's younger and you've got 20, 30, 40 years, that is a gift right there, right?
So if you're looking at names that you think are not going to go away, that they're going to be
eventually the winners, but maybe they've gotten a little bit ahead of themselves,
or maybe the market is artificially knocking them down, then be patient.
Take little pieces of what you think your overall position would be.
Get in slowly.
But like I said, sell those puts lower.
Sell some calls against a position or partial position.
What you're trying to do is over time, you're trying to knock down that cost basis of those stocks.
It does two things.
Number one, it makes them more profitable
when you do eventually punch out. Number two, some of these names are not going to work out,
right? So if they don't work out, at least you're losing on a lower cost basis than you would if
you were just buying and burying your head in the sand. So the timeframe depends on what your age
is. For me, like I said, long-term is like five to seven years.
Nice.
I appreciate you, Brian.
Obviously, everyone, feel free to jump into the conversation that we have going forward.
We'll talk news stories.
We'll talk everything like that.
It is obviously a big earnings day.
So a lot of the conversation might be centered around that.
My next question is, Stock Talk, I'd like to bring you into the conversation.
We have ENS reporting earnings today after the close.
I know one of your largest holdings, something you're watching.
Listen, one earnings doesn't make or break something for most of the time in these longer-term stories,
but I'd love to hear your thoughts going into the earnings.
Maybe if you have anything you want to talk about on the day.
But ENS earnings after the close, it's an exciting one, hopefully.
I know Stock Talk was having some troubles getting up here, so I might have caught him at a bad time.
He's walking Leo.
He's walking Leo. I guess it is prime walk Leo time.
Normally we're...
I feel like prime walk Leo time is 3.15
p.m. Eastern to 3.30, so
maybe Leo's just getting a good walk.
Maybe we delayed it a little
for the Inersis earnings. Who knows? He's also
been having problems, so you never know. It could be spaces,
but... He could be eating cucumbers.
It's possible he's doing that. You never know.
He's doing what? Eating cucumbers. I know he likes
eating cucumbers.
Sometimes I like to let things sit after
people make comments and just see how they react.
And out of the blue, you'll say,
that's fair.
It was very fair. It was very fair you'll say, that's fair. That's fair. It was very fair.
That was very fair.
You know, that's fair.
Apple stock with a nice run here in this last 20, 30 minutes or so.
Apple stock looks great.
Apple's been an outperformer.
But it's kind of been a signal here against this whole AI trade that's been going on.
It's almost like an anti-air play.
Not yet.
Hey, listen, Google.
It's a safety trade. It's a harbor that's that's what it is people
are running out of risk into Apple they meal it's like that's bigger than how much bigger than Apple
do you think in video like how much bigger than Apple is in video right now do you think bigger
in terms of my yeah? Yeah, market cap.
It's only $200 billion.
I don't really keep track of that stuff.
I don't find it really helps me trade anything.
I know. It just gives me good facts. All right, I'm back.
There we go.
You're good.
Apple is less than $200 billion
away from NVIDIA and market cap,
if you were wondering at all.
And Walmart's joining the trillion-dollar club.
That's pretty cool.
Walmart, you look at the trillion-dollar club, it has a lot of tech names.
And then there's the Eli Lilly, which, I mean, maybe, I guess is tech-ish, kind of.
Not really.
What's crazy?
Truex your halfway, and then Walmart.
Walmart's still just a little different than a lot of the others.
What's crazy is that people, this is just a referendum on how powerful the Walmart model was.
If you were to reconstitute all the heirs of Sam Walton, right, bring back all those shares that like one person would have had, the only person that would have more money than him would be Elon Musk.
That is what a game-changer Walmart was and how it revolutionized retail.
Game changer Walmart was in how it revolutionized retail.
Stock talk, I was calling you up.
Maybe we'll talk a little bit more about Walmart because it is pretty crazy.
That's over a trillion.
Walmart's what we're going to talk about?
No, no, no.
I was like, my goodness.
And there's this ENS earnings up coming up after the close is what i wanted to ask you
close held up pretty well today has been sort of a parabolic stock so you know i'm not betting on
a gap up or anything but it is my largest position it is probably my favorite stock in the market so
you know i'm not going to sell it pull back to into the 160s, 170s would be viable, I think.
But, you know, obviously I prefer a gap up,
considering it is my largest position.
But I don't mean, I don't know.
I don't bet on gap ups and earnings when I've owned a stock for that long.
Obviously, overall, what?
I was going to ask you, what are you watching specifically on these earnings?
I'd like to see this company return to top-line growth is really what I've been betting on.
It's still cheap.
You know, when I bought it at $110, it was cheap, very cheap, and it's still cheap.
You know, the company's trading at like 12X EV over EBITDA, being one of the only battery OEMs in the country, cross-themed exposure to drones,
the power grid, energy storage, which are some of my three favorite themes in the market.
You know, they make military batteries, they make drone batteries, they make energy storage
batteries. They have a facility in New Jersey, which is going to be the first producer of
U.S. native cells in the country. So I just think there's a lot going for them. The reason the
stock for many years really wasn't that interesting with stock was because of the lack of top line
growth. I'm betting on that top line growth returning for these guys. The last quarter
they posted was excellent across the board. They posted like 950 million in revenue versus 890
million expectations. They've been on EPS as well by about 9%. So I'd like to see a top and bottom line beat.
Expectations have gone up quite a bit.
The last three quarters,
revisions are up three times since the last quarter.
So expectations are up,
but I really like the stock
and I really like the way the stock has acted
just over the last several months in general.
I mean, during periods of volatility, I mean, even today with this momentum washout, you know,
pretty much all my names are red today except Synaptics. And then I have a small GME position
as well, but that's not really a significant position, but pretty much all my other names
are red today. And so it's nice to see ENS only down, you know, whatever, it's down 1.7% today.
That's a good symbol, I think, of relative strength, considering most of the other mid-caps are getting slaughtered.
Still at 40% year-to-date performance, so gave some back, but I think I'm still outperforming most people that trade the way I do and hold stocks.
You know, as long as you're not a day trader, day traders obviously are probably doing fine today.
You know, they're mostly in cash
and not having to bear through holdings drawing down.
But for people who trade the way I trade,
I imagine I'm outperforming most people still,
even after the drawdown of this past week.
So I'm happy with the performance.
Obviously, no one likes to see drawdowns.
It's not the ideal scenario but you
know it happens you get kicked in the teeth sometimes i mean even last year at the beginning
of last year i had some brutal days and i ended the year up 505 so i'm not worried about week-to-week
action that much what i do is i pay attention to structure which is what i've talked a lot about
and i think weekly structure looks good on a lot of stuff. Even a lot of my names today, I went through, I did a chart dump on my channel on the names that have daily structure intact.
And there was a lot of them.
Pangea Logistics, GLDD, PLPC, Synaptics, HII, all of those have daily structure intact.
None of those have given up their 21 EMA on the daily, let alone the weekly or the monthly.
So to me, that's a good sign.
That's a show of relative strength where a lot of other mid-caps have suffered.
So having nine or ten names that are still holding on their daily structure and then a handful of others that maybe are breaking down their daily,
but holding their weekly or monthly structure, that's okay for me in this environment. Where I
start getting really concerned is when monthly structure starts breaking, right? So, you know,
you look at your monthly nine and 21 EMAs, those tend to be pretty good barometers of support for
very long periods of time. I mean, stocks can ride their monthly 90MA for years to the upside.
So once you start losing those levels on the monthly,
then I start asking myself the hard questions and potentially managing positions.
But we're not there yet.
Even after all this carnage and individual names over the last two or three days,
still not there yet on the monthly chart.
So keeping my head up up looking for opportunities still there's names i still want to
buy um but yeah today was obviously you know a day that where i got kicked in the nuts where i'm
sure a lot of people did but i think if you look at the overall market you look at the structure
it still has a lot of resilience like spy is going to trade 688 into the close here so it's going to stick save the 50 day which we lost earlier in the session
not going to see a full recovery on the other moving averages but it looks like we will close
pretty close um to the 21 ema about two or three or $3 off. So we'll see.
Obviously, if there's follow-through selling
at the end of the week and we lose that 50-day again,
that won't be a good sign.
There was a lot of rotation today into value
in areas like transports and healthcare
and regional banks and so on, but homebuilders.
But the issue with that rotation is we've seen this before
seen it in moments of last year especially during market corrections we see these blips of rotation
the issue with that is is that it it's not enough there's not enough money in those sectors period
like there's just not enough market capitalization so if if you keep delevering the AI trade and the billion market caps, or unless you're going to send
regional banks to multi-hundred billion market caps, or unless you're going to send,
you know, mid-cap healthcare stocks to 100 plus billion market caps, which is not going to happen,
period, that will not happen, then there's no room for the liquidity to go.
So it creates a liquidity issue for the markets
by betting on rotation.
So the people who are out there who are like,
oh, you know, I'm in transports, I'm doing great today.
And there's a lot of people on my feed like that today.
It's why I kind of ranted a little bit today
with a couple of tweets.
But I'm directly calling those people out
because they know, and I know,
and anyone with any semblance of market
knowledge knows that rotation cannot last. It can't. If that rotation lasts for more than three
or four weeks, the market will not crash but correct significantly. And that's just a function
of dollars in, dollars out. It's not a complicated equation. You don't need to be a genius to figure
that out. What a lot of people say is they look back historically and they say, well, there have been corrections or bear markets where certain commodities or certain assets have outperformed.
Some people will point to 22 and say, look at the performance of the oil markets then.
Or some people will point to previous bear markets and say, you know, gold outperformed or biotechs outperformed or whatever. The weighting of tech in those markets was not near what it is today.
Okay, that matters.
10, 20, 30 years ago, the weighting in tech in the indexes was not near what it was today.
The S&P 500 used to be a relatively diversified index, relatively.
You know, in the last 10 to 15 years, it has become overwhelmed by technology weightings.
And obviously, the Qs are a technology index in and of themselves.
So that point doesn't need to be made there with the Qs.
But for SPY, SPY is a technology index now.
And without technology, it will not perform.
And so you might keep getting these stick saves,
but you need to see participation and consolidation in these stocks
rather than meltdowns in order for the market to hold up.
That's just simple math.
So in my opinion, it's just math.
And once you sit down and do the math
and you ask yourself what the market capitalizations are in tech
versus the market capitalizations in these other sectors,
you'll realize that pretty rapidly.
So my view is, sure, you can rotate some of your portfolio into these sectors and get
blips of green.
But if the market resumes a ferocious uptrend in the S&P 500, the place you'll want to be
is the place that has been the place to be for the
last three years, which is these stocks.
Now, some people will say, look at that and say, okay, well, that means that these last
couple of days are buying opportunity.
Yeah, maybe.
But if market weakness continues, those stocks are going to keep going down too.
So you have to understand that there's deleveraging happening more so than rotation.
And the blips of rotation you are seeing are because the things that are dragging down these other sectors are not going to drag down transport or home builders or banks.
They're just not the factors involved in those industries are just not the same factors involved in technology industries.
So, you know, the cause to sell or the narrative to sell in technology
doesn't apply to those other industries. So you just have to walk that line carefully and
understand the difference between narrative and price action and, you know, move from there. But
yeah, obviously not pleased with the price action in the last couple of sessions, but not really
that concerned either. You know, like like i said i have a nice cushion
year-to-date so far um i'm my portfolio the way i manage stocks is going to be prone to drawdowns
like i will take drawdowns when this happens but i'm still very very bright green on the year you
know up 40 like sure i was up 50 a week, you know, that's part of the game.
You're going to see drawdowns, especially when you function in a high beta portfolio like I do with options exposure.
You're going to see big swings.
So I'm used to that.
I've been doing this for a while.
Very much used to volatility.
It doesn't scare me.
But it isn't always tasteful either.
It's not something you want to see if you're long.
So, yeah, from that perspective,
rough day, but great year still so far. So that's kind of my takeaway overall from today.
A lot of earnings coming up in the next couple of weeks. So we'll see.
Ian has After Hours today, Synaptics tomorrow, THR tomorrow. So I have several names lined up for reports. I want to ask you around earnings.
How do you approach when one of your companies reports earnings, and is it different for when it's considered a core position in your portfolio versus a different name?
I'm just curious, leading up to it.
Yeah, it is different.
So with core positions, it really depends on how long I've owned them.
positions, you know, it really depends on how long I've owned them. You know, if they're recent
core positions, which there aren't many of them, then, you know, the thesis is still
up for judgment, if you will. But if it's stocks that I've owned for years,
and have proven themselves to me, their management teams and their product teams have proven
themselves to me, and I own them at a very deep cost-based advantage. Those are not stocks that I'll sell.
So, you know, like Robinhood, Centrist, Kratos, Tesla, Amazon, Nebius.
I own these stocks so deep in the money that I'm not going to bother myself with being, you know,
entertaining whether the thesis is valid or not based on a day of price
action or two days of price action. That would just be silly. So there are stocks that are kind
of immune from being cut just by virtue of how long I've owned them and how much I like the
underlying businesses and, you know, the secular theme that they're involved in. And then there's
other stocks that have opened more recently that are absolutely open to being cut.
So I play in that sort of realm where some stocks I value more in terms of
their,
their position,
my portfolio and other stocks are just trading positions.
So yeah,
that's,
that's kind of how I think about it.
But yeah, I do manage positions differently
based on whether they're trading positions or core positions.
So with Inersis, I was looking at the numbers.
Same quarter last year, $906 million is what they reported.
I see they're expected to be, what, it was like $930 something
is what revenue is expected to be.
So hopefully it comes in
above expectations but that would be year over year growth i'm curious of like obviously each
earnings report is going to be a little bit different but how you approach like going through
the numbers listening to the earnings call do you listen to all the earnest calls or just get the
transcript and run it through an ai um how do you use ai during yeah i try to listen to all the calls
um i can't say that i listen to all of them though i try to though um core positions i
listen to them all that's non-negotiable but for like trading positions not necessarily
um but yeah i do try to i think there's a lot of alpha on earnings calls, like not necessarily like direct, like alpha on a silver platter.
But I think tonality in management, I think like some of the the statements that are made in the question and answer period.
Statements that are made in the question and answer period.
Those are the places where I think in an earnings call, you can kind of glean insights about
a stock that you can't really see in the data, you know, the financial or technical
data.
And so I value earnings calls for that reason.
I do pay attention to them.
And if I don't get a chance to listen to one, I'll almost certainly read either the
transcript or a summary of the transcript at the very least.
And Earnings Hub is great for that. So, you know, if I do miss one, I will definitely go and read
at the very least a summary of the transcript.
What does it look like when you're digging into the numbers themselves?
We're eight minutes from the close. We're, like I said, a lot of these numbers come out, 4.05, 4.10, 4.15 p.m. Eastern.
Inersus says 4.15.
Google says 4.03.
Qualcomm says 4 o'clock.
So we should be getting a couple of those numbers.
We'll go to Snipe in a second,
and he'll read one or two of those off.
But when you're digging through these reports,
what do you look for first?
Is it going down to the financials
and just reading through the statements?
Is it going to Twitter and waiting for it versus the expectations because obviously the reports don't have the
estimates on there which is obviously really important what does it look like when the
numbers actually first come out yeah do you even try not to react right away i'll go through the
actual release when the numbers come out and then when the estimates pop up on x or on earnings hub
then i'll go and compare them to the estimates.
I don't really make like read or react decisions unless I see something crazy.
And if I see like a monster top and bottom line beat on a name that I love and I don't see the stock moving, I might take advantage of that.
Or even on the other side of that, if I see a monster report that I really like and the stock goes down, you know, that's even more of a buy.
But, yeah, it depends.
I generally don't make read and react decisions on earnings because in the past I have done that and, you know, it's hurt me.
So I try to be patient, like read through the report, make sure all the all the things I'm looking for are there and then go and compare it to the expectations.
And if if they beat top and bottom line and on guidance and I go through the report and all of the qualitative things I'm looking for are there, then, yeah, that's considered a great report to me.
Like that's what happened on the last VIAV earnings and the one before that,
you know?
And so I'll jump in the discord and be like, Hey, I like this, this,
this, and this happened. This is what I was looking for.
This is a great report. You know?
And I said that about VIAV earnings on the last earnings was up 2%.
It closed the next day up 17%.
And so I like to think that I'm pretty consistently good at doing that.
Like knowing if report is good or not good.
And I'm honest about my opinion whenever I do see one, even if I own a stock and I don't think the report's good, I'm going to say that.
I'm going to be like, hey, you know, this is I like the stock, but this report isn't great.
So I try to be as objective as possible with that stuff.
But obviously, there's a little bit of confirmation bias in my body the way there is in most people's.
You know, you want the stocks you own to do good.
But that doesn't prevent me from, like, making judgment calls when it's necessary.
Like, I don't marry stocks, even if it's a core position, even if it's a stock I've owned for years.
If something really bad happens or something thesis breaking happens, I'll sell it.
or something thesis breaking happens, I'll sell it.
And that's another thing that's different about me
from a lot of traders that are successful
is that I don't follow a lot of the rules
that some traders have.
You know, some traders have a rule where,
this is a phrase you hear often,
you either sell into strength or you sell into weakness.
I sell into weakness more often than I sell into strength.
And it has served me well.
Like, I don't sell tops ever.
Ever.
I don't remember the last time I sold a top on a stock.
But that's not how you make money.
And I also don't remember the last time I bought a bottom.
But that's also not how you make money.
You make money by buying strong stocks and riding them until they're not strong again,
in my view.
In my view, that's the simplest and easiest and most straightforward way to make money by buying strong stocks and riding them until they're not strong again in my view in my view that's the simplest and easiest and most straightforward way to make money in bull markets you find the best stocks and you ride them until they aren't the best stocks anymore
and you know if you ride a stock from 25 and it goes to 100 and you sell at 75 did you make a
mistake you should ask yourself that question do you think you made a
mistake i don't i don't just because you didn't sell it at 100 it doesn't matter it's still 3x
you know if you if you own a stock at 25 it's riding let's say the 21 week ema and you think
that's the structural spot that's really important for the chart. And then the stock goes to $100.
And then over the next couple of weeks, it breaks down and falls to $75.
And you go, oh, you know what?
It's breaking below $21.
I'm going to sell it here.
That's a great trade, $25 to $75.
And then some people will look at that trade and say, well, you're an idiot.
You should have sold into strength when it was $100.
Like, who the hell can guess that?
There are stocks that go parabolic for years years right calling the top is just as hard as calling the bottom so yeah I look there's things you can look for you
can look for like fib extensions and all these sort of complicated technical tools that people
use that you you can try to gauge off of where you think a stock might top
out and where it might not. I don't play that game. I just play the game of I find stocks that
I really like fundamentally, thematically and technically, and then I ride them till I think
the juice has been squeezed. And that's brought me great success over, you know, 14 years of
trading and investing and has allowed me to dramatically outperform the market.
I'm not going to break that strategy now.
And even if you look at my performance so far this year, even after this brutal drawdown in individual names over the past week, like the reason I'm still up 40 percent is because of that strategy.
Because I don't allow stocks that are not breaking down to become sell candidates. Like a stock goes down 8%, let's say, you know, but it's 26% extended from its 9 EMA.
Is that a sell signal?
Not to me.
You know, not to me.
I'll give it room.
Like I'll allow the moving average to catch up. The volatility on an extended stock
allowing the moving averages to catch up
is not a sell
signal to me.
It is to other people.
Strategies are going to vary from person to person
but that's what works for me and that's what I do.
I buy good stocks, strong stocks,
the best stocks.
I ride them until
they're not anymore.
Wonderful stocks. Beautiful stocks. I ride them until wonderful stocks yeah wonderful stocks beautiful stocks and i ride them until they're not beautiful anymore and that's it plain and simple
sorry that is literally what you just did though uh we got two minutes until the market close
coming up here on a lot of the earnings wow Wow. Snapchat at $6, under $6, but they do have earnings coming
up and a bunch of other names. I know we got a stock sniper in here who is itching to read us
off some numbers. Google should be pretty close to the market close. Tell me what's being expected
there. I'm seeing expectations of $2.61 on EPS and then revenue of $104.8 billion for
Google earnings. Yes. So I'm actually itching to read off these numbers. I have some awesome
information for you guys. Qualcomm comes out at 4 p.m. Eastern on the dot. Google comes out at
4 or 3 p.m. today. I'm going to probably talk about Google more, but if you want to see some
of the data sets on Qualcomm, I have that posted under the space. When it comes towards Google, we're looking
at a couple of very interesting things. The thing that is jumping out to me is the $19.06 or 5.78
implied moves. When we take a look at Google's last four moves, nothing has come close to that.
Plus 2.52%, plus 1.02%, plus 1.68%, and minus 7.29%. The open interest on this one is
at 2,684,383, which is pretty comparable to the last three reports. Just like Evan was telling
you there, we're looking for $104.77 billion. This is a record high revenue, and we're looking for
$2.62. This is not a record high EPS, but this is a record high revenue that we're looking for
out of Google.
The key metrics to watch for on Google is we're going to look for cloud revenue.
We want to see this continuing around 35% or so.
I think, in my opinion, also anything below or above, anything that doesn't start with the three could send the stock in either direction.
So I will be watching that.
And the next metric that we're looking for is we want to see if they are maintaining search revenue we want to see if it's continuing or remaining constant or it's
declining there's a lot of questions there on that side of things but basically we're looking
mostly at cloud compute and uh search revenue um when it co-road of the qualcomm qualcomm is going
to give us a little bit qualcomm did report earnings already stock is down three percent
here in after hours i haven't seen quite seen
the numbers just yet 2% is the initial move on Qualcomm they did one of the
things where they said numbers are gonna be up on our website so it will take a
second or two Qualcomm numbers will come out stock is even coming back up a
little bit down 2% here in after hours Q com Google should be out any second
though sorry for I'm seeing eps for qualcomm
was three dollars and fifty cents being expectations of three dollars and forty cents and then sales
revenue is also a small beat as well for q com um qualcomm back moving lower pinned up in the nest
above is just a picture with a bunch of the number names that we have reporting earnings.
I'm sure a lot of people will also be interested in ARM holdings,
which if it's not out already should be out in any second now.
QCOM, though, initial move was lower by a percentage point or two.
Actually, now it is down by four.
is down by four symbiotic double beat
Symbiotic double beat.
spend energy reported earnings i still have not seen or i'm holding so i'm going to switch back
over to google which allegedly could be out any second here google with an initial tick up of two
percent three percent there so google's numbers might be out somewhere right now coming back down
maybe fake move i just got faked out now it's down by one percent i Google's numbers might be out somewhere right now. Coming back down. Maybe fake move.
I just got faked out. Now it's down by 1%.
I feel like this might be numbers
out, but it's just being digested
a little bit, something like that. But Google's
getting a little fidgety
right now, we could say.
Now it's down too.
Let me know if any of you guys
end up seeing the numbers,
but Google's... Google numbers, revenue at $113.82 billion.
Wow.
Expected $111.48 billion.
So they did it.
EPS, $2.82.
Expected $2.64.
Pretty big beat there.
Or a decent-sized beat.
I don't want to use the word big huge large beat
large beat so google just reported earnings stock was moving lower there initially
give qualcomm's revenue um yeah we read it out but i think that google's a little bit more of
the focus right now i'm still not getting that after hours move there
in that place stock is down by
4.5% right now
once we get a calm down here I also
want you to get us the ENS
numbers I haven't got the chance to see the full Google
report yet just some
yeah
415 in real people time
seeing forward guidance on Qualcomm is a little bit below expectations, actually.
That might be why that stock is moving lower.
Again, waiting to get a little bit more Google information in front of me.
Yeah, beat top and bottom line Google.
Yeah, beat top and bottom line Google.
Google said it expects to spend between $175 billion to $185 billion on CapEx in 2026,
above expectations of $120 billion.
Let me repeat that.
Google said it expects to spend basically $180 billion on CapEx in 2026 above expectations of
$120 billion.
Google Cloud Services
revenue plus 14%.
Google Cloud revenues
plus 48%.
Hold on.
They are going to spend $165 billion?
No, $180 billion.
Oh, my God.
Dude, that is insane.
That's not…
I thought we were, like, spending $100 billion across the board,
like, each person.
Like, $180?
Dude, I don't even know if that's the bull case anymore.
That sounds like the bear case now.
Holy crap. Dude, I don't even know if that's the bull case anymore. That sounds like the bear case now.
Holy crap.
Yeah, that is quite the number.
I know that might be sending Google lower here, but I'm surprised that's not sending
a lot of these other AI related names.
Well, the question is, where are they spending the capex?
I mean, where else would they be spending it?
You know, I mean, but they have their own chip. So it hard to say you know that's fair that's fair that's fair but
i mean this is a it is a lot of money being spent let me double check that capex number because that
seems quite big i'm not yeah i'm not seeing capex yet have we seen Google's cloud revenue?
Apparently Google spent $91 billion on CapEx this past quarter.
$91 billion.
What did they spend $91 billion this past quarter on?
Google.
Google.
Yeah, that's pretty crazy.
Yeah, that's pretty crazy.
I wonder if NVIDIA stock is moving at all off of this.
Google went from minus 7 to minus 2%.
Arm numbers?
Yeah, you can read off Arm.
$1.24 billion versus $1.23 expected.
$0.43 EPS versus $0.41 expected.
Double beat on ARM.
And then ELF, $489.50 million versus $461.78 million.
EPS, $1.24 versus $0.72 expected.
That's a double beat on ELF as well.
All right.
So Google's CEO said,
our first party models like Gemini now process over 10 billion tokens per minute
via direct API used by our customers
and Gemini app has grown to over 750 million active users.
Stock Talk, does the 180...
Their Gemini user metrics are useless.
That's such an inflated number. It's just people using Google? Yeah, it's just people useless. That's such an inflated number.
It's just people using Google?
Yeah, it's just people using Google.
That's an inflated number.
And also, what's the ROI on that, bro?
You're just spending $185 billion?
The ROI might be negative on that because you're deterring from ad consumption.
Dude, definitely.
It's definitely negative on that.
But my point is, dude, you're going to up your spend from $120 to $185 billion?
What are you going to show for that? No, I'm not even negative on the total my point is like dude you're gonna up your spend from 120 to 185 billion like what are you gonna show for that on the total amount logical i mean like the incremental input
into gemini capex on google search right right impairing their ad business yeah it doesn't make
sense because that's not showing any ads like if i google something i get an ai overview like it
doesn't make any sense dude none of this is ads. Like if I Google something, I get an AI overview. Like it doesn't make any sense, dude.
None of this is making sense.
Because prior to that, you Google something and you would get the top three suggestions,
which were ad delivered suggestions.
And now Gemini just gives you the answer.
They are testing ads in those.
Here's what I'll say.
They're testing ads on the Gemini proper app, not on Google search.
You go to Google search and search something,
Gemini just answers the question.
That's what we're referring to.
Anyway, what are you saying, Logito?
I was saying, dude, we were just doing a stream with Shai,
and we were talking about, obviously, look at Qs, right?
And I came in a little late on what you were saying about the market
and tech needs to join.
And the problem with tech needs to join is that going into the after hours today
is that you have Google reporting.
And the problem with Google reporting is that they're already trading at like, I don't want to say their peak valuation or something like that.
But, you know, going into the pre like above 30 PE is just a lot harder to see a positive reaction.
So that's the problem going into tomorrow now is that like, this does not help the queues being below the 100 day and that does not help spy in general on a market cap weighted basis. So tough spot. I don't know, maybe, maybe Amazon gives the energy tomorrow afternoon. But imagine if like, let's say, Google is down 7% tomorrow.
Google was down 7% is now up.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So but I mean, like after hours, we'll see what it actually looks like tomorrow.
You know what I mean?
That's when the real volume comes in.
Is anyone going to buy this?
Is anyone going to buy Google above 30 P?
Not after that meta reaction.
Not after that meta reaction, which basically went right back into the gap.
That's exactly what Amazon did in Q3 reaction.
Like they had a 10% gap up and a 4% gap up.
And then it just gave back all of the gains
and more.
Then you see the same exact reaction with Meta.
Now you're getting Google, which is at all time highs above 30 PE.
And they just said they're going to spend another $65 billion.
That means that their free cash flow multiple is actually destroyed right now.
I just don't see it.
And this is like, I don't want to sound like too doomy or anything, but that doesn't save the market is what I'm trying to say from like the Q side.
Yeah, I agree.
It's not, it's not market saving print, but I mean,
it is a very strong intra-quarter print for Google though.
I mean, top and bottom line 9% beat.
What was the guide, Evan?
I actually don't know if I saw
forward guidance
yeah let me see one second
because if the guide was
beat then that's just a solid quarter but if you can't
get up off the map
but at 30 PE or 35 PE
or whatever it's at and now you know
and the free cash flow is like way worse
than that
yeah no it's I mean I'm not saying it's definitely
not it's just tough to justify buying it i mean i'm not saying it's definitely not um it's just tough to
justify buying it yeah i'm not buying it but i wasn't buying it before i'm not buying it today
that's for sure yeah no i agree with that i agree with that um no i mean look the market is is weak
in the last week the market has been weak there's no question about that earnings reactions have
been faded momentum today was actually the fourth worst
momentum washout in history, recorded history. Fourth worst. So that's, it was a pretty historic
day in terms of momentum washout. Preference for value today, but again, that can't last,
just can't. The market won't hold up so yeah we gotta hope at least that google holds green
tomorrow um to you know put some stability in the market but we'll see obviously it's a pretty
volatile reaction after hours right now i mean it was down seven percent like five minutes ago and
now it's up half a percent so um we'll. We'll see. Ian,
should be coming up in four minutes.
Just looking at
all the growth leaders
in the market, Robinhood, Palantir,
Apple Oven, CrowdStrike,
all of these are slicing
through their 200 days and just water
falling lower.
It's just tough.
One more week of action like this and this
will look a lot like the beginning of 22 i agree so you need to just hope that doesn't happen and
if it does then but well like here's the problem here's the thing right like i'm thinking okay
maybe there's like something in the background that we're not really privy to like if you think
back to August 2024,
when you had yenmageddon, the market was down 5%, growth stocks were down a lot.
And then you had a minus 4% day on the actual yenmageddon where we bottomed on a 65 VIX.
Perhaps there's an actual event that's happening and then it eventually resolves with an iVIX
capitulation event. But barring anything short of that, these stocks are in freefall,
they have no support below them. And that's, that is a lot of market cap collectively.
Like we're not talking about like, one off quantum stocks trading at 1020 billion. Palantir
is a $400 billion company. And it just started its potential stage four decline. So like,
there's a lot of those that look like that. I mean, look at Oracle, that thing is, you
know, getting crushed. I don't know, it's a lot of those that look like that. I mean, look at Oracle. That thing is getting crushed.
I don't know.
It's a lot of market cap now.
There's a lot of large popular tech software-ish names that were hitting 52-week lows.
Netflix, Adobe, PaynePal, Salesforce, MicroStrategy, Pinterest,
Snapchat, which actually did it, I think just reported.
Snapchat stock.
Oh, up 4%.
Wow.
Good for you guys.
Post also on that 52 week low list,
Spotify service.
Now there's a lot of names there.
Trade desk.
All I can say is sometimes it's better to smell,
to sell at a small loss than to keep holding on with this hope,
no support below and then ending up down 30% on the position like a few days later?
Yeah, no, I mean, the action is not particularly great in most stocks.
And that's worth noting.
And most of the times, momentum washouts are leading signals of a greater correction in the indexes.
In fact, even last year, prior to the April 2nd, whatever, Liberation Day, whatever you want to call it, sell-off,
there was a momentum wipeout two weeks before that, for those that remember, with the DeepSeek sell-off.
And so you can't tie it to the news.
The news is just one part of the equation that drives these moves. Right. But if you look at most momentum washouts in the past eight years or seven years since 2019, I'll say.
larger corrections in the indexes, usually 9% to 12% corrections in the indexes.
Now, what happens when that happens?
Those stocks go lower.
And eventually, the rotation trade that seems like a kind of hook on the wall that you can
hang on to snaps as well.
And that's exactly what happened on the April 2nd sell-off.
So you have to be careful in this market to mistake notation for correction dude here's a here's the
problem is like it'd be one thing if it was just a momentum sell-off like we saw back in october
and i mean maybe some technician is going to be out there we're like actually uh we did see a
flight to defensives or some bullshit but like the problem problem right now is that XLP, XLE, a lot of these sectors are
making all time highs right now. XLI. So there is like, I don't know. I mean, those are the
bids that you saw in 22. Like staples and defensives did well. Energy did well. Commodities.
It's very late cycle behavior. So that's a little troubling to me because it's not just like heck or momentum is selling off in a vacuum. They're selling off badly. And there is a flight to safety elsewhere. And that does lead to a 22 scenario. And that's, I don't want to be hyperbolic because we're barely a couple percent off the highs on the index.
But I think as people who watch the market as actively as we do, it is worth considering
all the action you're seeing beneath the surface.
Oof, inertia.
I'm seeing revenue delivered net sales of 919 million.
I don't know if net sales and revenue are exactly the same thing here. Adjusted EPS was $2.77.
That should be a beat on EPS.
I'm trying to look for the...
XIRC.
It looks like there's a one-time expense as well in here.
I don't see it on their quarterly results yet on their website.
I don't see it on their quarterly results yet, on their website.
We delivered strong third quarter with just a diluted EPS of $1.84 x 45x up 50% year over year.
Margins expanded meaningfully across most areas of our business driven by favorable product mix along with expense and pricing discipline.
Net sales are up 1% in range with a low end of our business driven by favorable product mix along with expense and pricing discipline. Net sales are up 1%
and range with a low end of our guidance range.
Let me see.
See if there's forward guidance here as well.
That would sound like a great print.
Why are they not on the thing?
Okay, here we go.
Gross margin at 30%. That's verse 26.3, here we go. Gross margin at 30%.
That's
verse 26.3. I like that.
beat slight revenue
miss, but still close to $900 million.
They said they expect revenue next quarter
around $900 million.
$980 million.
Yeah, fiscal year 2026
outlook $960 to $1 billion.
That's good.
I like that.
Adjusted EPS, they're looking at it at $3 at the midpoint.
Yeah.
I like this.
It was a good report.
Good report.
I'm totally, totally okay with this.
I need to see a little bit more detail.
Why don't they have the full release on the site?
What?
It's on Twitter, but it's not on their website.
What the hell?
This is what you're doing today.
Yeah, $2.7 billion so far this year.
IRC 45X benefits to cost $40 million.
Just the EPS around $3.
What is this X45X benefits?
IRC.
They're the 45X credits.
They're providing the stats with and without those credits
just for transparency purposes.
All right, dude.
You just take the credits and run.
That's what I...
No, I'm kidding.
Well, no, I like the transparency there.
But if there's strong earnings in the third quarter, blah, blah, blah.
Margins expanded meaningfully.
Yeah, margins did expand very meaningfully.
30% up to home.
Net sales.
Framework is trying to get the results.
That looks good.
I like this report.
I like that.
The non-graph measures here operating
gap oh stock has one tech really I haven't seen been moving that much initial
move is down a little bit yes sucks down about four or five percent but that's
totally fine I don't mind that at all a little retested the 21 EMA I'll take
that over to shareholders it's Stock is up so much bro
Stock's up a lot
Yeah I mean it's been flying
Let me put a little note in there
What's the valuation up now?
It's still so cheap
I mean with these new numbers
You'll be at
Let's look at the guide I gotta take the guide numbers in account if I'm gonna
find the evaluation we prior to this report they're trading at 12.5 EV over EBITDA, 20 times free cash flow.
So pretty reasonable valuation in my view.
And yeah, stock is getting hit though after hours.
Down about 7%.
Where is that going to bring it into?
168, that'll be, yeah, that's ideal.
I mean, I'd like to stop with a 21 EMA ideally,
but yeah, that's a nice report either way.
I'll get that.
I'm going to put a little note about this in there.
Yeah, I am curious on what the next little bit looks like for you
as the name comes out, as you kind of do your research into it.
I'm also curious on how you use AI for this part of it.
Do you throw it in the thing and have some prompts that you run against it?
Not really.
On a report like this where I understand the company you, right?
I walked a little bit away from the Wi-Fi.
No, no, you didn't lose me.
I'm here still.
You're good.
I'm just typing up a note.
You're good to go in and do that.
Yeah.
Snipe, did any more numbers come out?
I'm sure.
That irrelevant.
Snap came out.
If we care about Snapchat.
1.71 billion versus 1.7 billion.
EPS, three cents minus, expected minus three cents.
Coherent.
1.68 billion.
Expected 1.64 billion.
EPS, 1.29.
Expectation was 1.21 so double beat on
snapchat incoherent since we were last talking about them logical were there any
names that you're watching today no I mean just for the health of the market I
wanted to see what Google's numbers are gonna be so that's all and I don't think
those are numbers that are gonna bail out the cubes which means that it's not necessarily going to bail out spy.
They mean bailing out Nvidia spending 180 billion somewhere.
I mean, again, right? Is that where they're spending it? I don't know the answer to that
question. But they're up 2% after hours so I could mean that. The problem is like, what
like it's just flowing from one place to another.
So best case you get stability. But yeah, I don't know. It's a tough one. Look, the
way I'm seeing this market right now is just under the 100 day, the way it's been so weak
on the tech like tech is guilty until proven innocent. I think that's the safest way to
move forward. And just assume that you need to see you need to be
convinced to buy more in this market that's all i'm saying if anything i'm more convinced to sell
in this market interesting interesting interesting i mean what would have to change for you to kind
of change that thought uh like i said i mean, I actually don't even know.
Because like, okay, let's say the queues reclaim miraculously
the uptrend like 100-day, 50-day.
Like obviously your inclination is going to be
to be incrementally like constructive.
But what I can say is that that has been happening
for the last three months.
If you look at how many times we've tested 100-day on the queues,
anytime you test the resistance or support multiple times,
eventually you're going to break through it.
And the time period in between every time we kept testing the 100-day
was like shortening.
Every single time the market tried to rally,
it would get slapped back down with high volume sales.
It felt like distribution. So it was only a matter of time till we broke below it. The problem is
that like the market caps are so large right now. Just think about it like mathematically, like
you need a lot of money to move these stocks up and especially to absorb the selling. So it's not
just enough to like, you need to absorb the selling and then have enough incremental buying
power that it pushes these stocks up. That is a lot of, you know, you need a lot of liquidity for
that. And it just doesn't feel like we have that kind of gas in the tank. So the market feels tired.
Every time it gets up, it gets slapped back down. And it just feels like it wants to roll over. I
don't know what the end state is going to look like. it just doesn't have the energy that's that's what
my take is and what's it going to take for that either we need a we need a washout i think we
need like a 10 15 correction honestly i think that will bring buyers back into the market
or they just say f it like we're gonna like do some stimulus or some like you need to see some sort of buying pressure
back into the market that's not enough so here's what i'm gonna say is i think this move over the
last couple days this kind of worry here is around kevin warship maybe not getting rate cuts as as i
was thinking about too yeah no no i was thinking that because i mean i think we're all right that's
definitely what it is yeah we're trying to rationalize what's going on.
And so like, here's the thing in 22.
The reason why we had a very clear sell off is because we were about to go from 0% rates to 5% rates within a year.
We knew, you know, it's the end of QE.
It's about to be a rate hiking cycle.
And then you get the Kevin Warsh nomination, which we know he has been a hawk, generally speaking.
Maybe that is enough because that means that, hey, free lunch is over.
No more rate cuts.
I mean, it can't...
With the dollar, the way it's been dwindling,
I wouldn't be surprised
if that's a fairly decent take there.
I don't know.
Sometimes it's hard to know.
Your small caps and your rate-sensitive stocks
aren't really getting hit, though.
That is why I actually don't think it is the worst thing.
That's why I am having trouble believing that thesis.
Yeah, I took the words out of my mouth.
So that's the only thing.
No, no, but I don't think that's what it is.
I think what it is is that there was an expectation
from the market that Trump would appoint, like, you know, like, I don't know how to phrase this.
A puppet.
He was going to appoint somebody that would just do his bidding and that would just cut rates relentlessly.
just cut rates relentlessly. And instead, we got a Fed chair that has a history of not only being
on the Fed and being a pretty nuanced decision maker, but somebody that doesn't have a one track
mind when it comes to monetary policy. And so if you look at the precious metals trade, which is
really what started this unwind, I think, or started the extremity of this unwind with that minus 27% move on silver in one day, that precious
metals rally, like the nosebleed rally in precious metals where gold and silver were
relentlessly rallying, to me was a currency debasement trade against this idea that there
would be perpetual QE and insane amount of rate cuts going into this year,
or sorry, going into the middle of this year.
And that has now shifted.
The expectations of that have shifted.
So you've got to wash out of precious metals,
and then you've got to wash out of speculation to follow that.
That makes total sense to me.
I mean, where would the money come out of
if we weren't going to enter that sort of regime?
It would come out of speculation and it would come out of precious metals.
And that's exactly where the money came out of.
So to me, it makes totally logical sense to say the Fed chair is not as dovish as the market expected it to be.
And even some people will point to it and say, well, Pauli market odds had him as the favorite going into the announcement.
I don't think we're at the point where the market can effectively price Polymarket odds. I don't
think Polymarket's been along for long enough that the Polymarket just instantly prices Polymarket
odds at every equation. I don't think that's the way the market's functioning. So even if he was
the favorite headed into that announcement, I think that still there was part of that trade that needed to unwind.
And I think that's what we've seen. So that's my view on it.
Now, I'm not saying that's definitely right, but to me, it makes sense.
To me, it makes a lot of sense that that's what we've seen over the last week or so.
Now, what could change that is if there is more negative data about the economy between now and then, because then you're
going to have a Fed share that isn't a relentless cutter or isn't necessarily a relentless cutter,
and you have a weakening economy at the same time. And that could create fear in the markets,
because the backstop for economic weakness is going to be rate cuts. And so, you know,
if you have a Fed share that isn't necessarily going to be a cuts. And so, you know, if you have a Fed chair
that isn't necessarily going to be a crony
and just cut rates like crazy, that isn't ideal.
So, yeah, we are hitting some headwinds
in the market narrative-wise.
And then on top of that, you have a lot of
other factors to consider.
Geopolitical factors.
You have a lot of stuff going on in Iran,
People have been very sure over the last
couple weekends, last two or three, that
something's going to happen in Iran
and US. Well, in Iran
with the US.
Yeah.
I mean,
I don't think that war is particularly bad for the markets
or anything but i do think that there is you know it it adds uncertainty it adds uncertainty
about the oil markets about certain commodity markets i mean the war in russia and ukraine
for the first two weeks of that war there was an enormous move in related commodities and related agricultural sectors and so on and so forth, oil and gas, etc.
Because when you have a war, it complicates commodity industries more than anything.
It's not really a direct impactor to equities, but it complicates commodity markets.
So that's what I think we're seeing.
Now, you know, again, it's hard to put your finger on this kind of stuff, but that would be my two cents as to what we've seen over the last week or two.
So we'll see.
I mean, you know, it may be we may be coming to the juncture where the markets are at a decision making point.
I don't think we may be. I think we are coming to the juncture where the markets are at a decision-making point. I don't think we may be,
I think we are coming to the juncture where the markets are at a decision
making point. Spy saved the 50 day today,
but it's not really a lot of solace because the Qs look particularly weak.
They knife through the hundred day today.
And there's enough related constituency between the Qs and SPY that if you can't recover above 612 on the NASDAQ
by the end of this week or by the end of next week, then the NASDAQ looks really ugly.
Right? Because if the NASDAQ, this is going to be the first actual 100-day forfeit for the NASDAQ
in over nine months.
How long has it been?
Yeah, so going back to last May, this is the first time we've been under the 100-day for the NASDAQ.
Now, the last three attempts in December, in late December, and then again in the beginning
of this year, were caught right at the 100-day on the queues.
If you go and look, you'll see.
I mean, the last night through, you had an immediate green candle,
then one, two, three, four, five straight candles to the green.
And then last time we got it, three, four, five candles to the green right after.
And then previous time, one, two, three, four, five candles green
immediately after the 100-day test.
So the last 300-day tests have been followed up by five green sessions in a row.
And now we've got a knife through the 100-day this time.
And if you don't see follow-through tomorrow to the upside, that'll be a change in character.
No question about it.
So changes in character have to be paid attention to, in my view.
And, you know, we are pretty close to starting to see them.
I think the end of this week will be a really important week. We've seen time and time again,
the market save itself on Fridays. We have Thursday and Friday left to go this week. So
we'll see how that pans out. But yeah, things don't look particularly great after the last
two days of price action in the major indexes. And that's
something that you have to be mindful of. You can't just ignore that. And you potentially have
to manage risk against that. And so we'll see where we go from here. But I mean, I'm not going
to be hesitant to protect performance if the market continues to act like this. So we'll see.
I haven't made any crazy decisions in the last couple of days,
but I will be
willing to make
those decisions going forward
if necessary.
What was Google's
guide
for next year?
Normally they give guidance on their
earnings call, I believe. That's them.
They did not see guidance in those at all.
The only guidance I saw was the CapEx spend for this year.
Which, interestingly, they talked about in the initial,
like the top, the CEOs always give a little commentary about the quarter.
That's where that was.
Yeah.
No, I did not see any guidance for Google reported earnings call actually just started I
believe for Google so you should be hearing some headlines coming out over the next little bit
Google earnings call ongoing right Google is up about two%. Nice. Almost 3% going into that call.
They are going to be giving forward guidance around, I think it's like 15 minutes-ish in, so in like 10 minutes or so.
So I'd expect a little bit of a larger move on Google around that time, but we could see.
We'll read out what the numbers, what they say.
Maybe they can catch up to Apple and the quality of the business.
But yeah, that earnings call is going on right now.
A lot of the other earnings calls will be starting at 5 p.m. Eastern or so around there.
AMD was quite the large mover today.
AMD stock had its worst day since 2017.
Google just made a new high of day day by the way. There we go.
It is ripping a little bit right now. It's at 4% now. Spies up half a percent and queues are up 0.6.5.
You just gotta hope that it doesn't go like meta where meta gapped up in after hours and
then got completely faded the next day. They waited two days to fade all right.
The back test on meta looks good today, though.
It filled the gap, came back down, backtested all that.
It's in an interesting structural spot.
Sorry, I'm trying to see if I can find the transcript here,
because I'm sure he's saying something right now.
Google stock is now for 4.2%, 4.5 so some of the dice is happening there
yeah amd was quite the movie today down pretty huge i think i think the gcp yeah i was gonna say
the gcp beat is probably what is causing it. I think they came at like 48% versus 35% consensus.
That's probably part of it.
Yeah, but it's moving in the last two minutes pretty aggressively.
Logical.
Maybe I'll start this next question on you,
and then we'll see if Stock Talk has any thoughts on it.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk moving in very different directions
over the last couple of days.
GLP One's in a very intriguing place right now.
Tell me a little bit more.
Eli Lilly did have earnings this morning.
Yeah, Nova Nordisk is a pathetic company.
It has a very inferior product, and Eli Lilly is the winner.
It's like AMD versus NVIDIA.
That's the best way I could say it.
Who's going to be on Nova Nordisk's drug if it's less best. It's the best way I could say it. Who's going to be on Novo Nordisk's
drug if it's less effective than Lilly's drug? Lilly's drug has insatiable demand in the market.
So I mean, that's as simple as it is, man. I mean, Ozempic is a very big trend and they're the
clear winner. AI is a very big trend. Nvidia is the winner and the end and Nova are losers and people want to use valuation but you can't use valuation with an inferior product so yeah I think that's
about it they're like oral drug is a nothing burger because people would still rather take
TERS from it really so is that bound is the winner in the market I think that's why I
mean if you remember a couple months ago,
Pfizer and Novo Nordisk got into like a bidding war over MetSara,
which has been kind of considered a pretty inferior obesity drug in the market as well.
But like Novo Nordisk tried to swoop in last minute,
like Pfizer was buying it for 7 billion.
Novo Nordisk like put the bidding up all the way to like $9-10 billion at the end.
So they're clearly, I mean, if that wasn't a sign that they know they're cooked.
And every person on Twitter is like, oh, it's so cheap.
Like, I don't know how many times you have to say it, but like,
valuation is in the thesis, either short or long.
Like you could have said, you know, Palantir was overvalued at $70. I did. Like you get blown out of that short. So yeah,
I just think people are, you know, oh, look how much it's down. This is a, you know,
a household name. It's like, yeah, but if they don't get their house in order, then,
you know, no longer will be. So I'm a little surprised. I'm a little surprised. Is that too grim? I'm a little surprised. Even with a little bit less performance,
I would still go for the pill over the injection.
I get it.
But, like, would you be on a drug if you're trying to lose weight
and take the less, like, the worst drug?
Probably not.
And also, it doesn't mean that, you know,
Lily won't get an oral
drug either. They probably will.
I don't know. I'm not up to date. I think April?
Maybe they have a readout for that? I'm not
sure. I haven't kept up with Lily.
So yeah.
If you know the better drugs coming, then
why would you bother? Dude, if this thing
goes to oral, oh my god, and it's
like Zetbound, oh god. This thing is gonna
be nuts.
Stock Talk, you got any thoughts
on the GLP One segment?
It's been a little interesting. I don't,
I mean, I know there's like a Viking Therapeutic, which is
$30 billion. Makes me think there are some small
mid-cap names in the area.
Or just generally stay away from biotech?
I don't really look at biotech no any difference on glp ones in general
you let alone over norris obviously kind of leading that there no i'm the wrong i'm the
wrong guy to get an opinion on that from i would just be bullshitting you well no worries there
the other major company that i saw reporting earnings this morning that i thought was
interesting was uber uber stock was uh quite the mover was down eight percent and then it was up three percent
that one was uh where did it close it closed down five so the roller coaster to end red but um
i know we've talked about lift at the points on the spaces as well I
know who traded it last year that's not a stock I would invest in but I traded
it last year for a nice trade yeah yeah from a trading perspective so at least
there's some knowledge on the sector I guess I know trades and investments are
different you have to have different knowledge on the space EPS for uber
came in below expectations they beat a little bit on revenue and they got hit a
little bit hard.
Uber shares pressed by profit
outlook, but gaining traction on AV
ambitions is one of the headlines that I've seen.
Are the Ubers of the world,
the Lyfts of the world, any
bit of intriguing for you?
I assume no, based on
the assertion that the Lyft
was just a trade.
Well, he's bullish RoboTaxi.
He's bullish RoboTaxi, but I'm wondering when it gets his own little basket there.
I mean, maybe that is edge compute.
Or on device, whichever one you wanted to call it i know we had the the semantics semantics semantics and oss yeah those are the two that i have in that basket yeah
okay cool another name that we've talked about in here once i believe it was much more of a
trading position uh and it's been long out of the portfolio but i did notice it on one of my lists
toast t-o-s-t um it's been struggling
a little bit recently these payment processors is it just something i feel like i've asked you
recently and you said it's generally a void but i do know toast is one we've talked about before
is this a name that has ever kind of come up on the radar since it was that training position yeah
i've looked at it it's just like the trailing metrics just make it seem expensive and i just
don't know how long you can keep betting on like growth from them.
I mean, they've posted some nice, I mean, the revenue,
the 10 year revenue chart looks great, right? I mean,
it looks like a steady grower.
It's not overtly expensive or anything.
I'm not saying like it's a super expensive stock.
It's just tough in FinTech to bet on like continued momentum because there's a lot of competition on the product level in fintech.
A lot.
Like, everything from point of sale all the way up to processing has a ton of competition across the board.
I mean, look what's happened to PayPal, you know?
And that's by virtue of competition.
Like, make no mistake.
Yeah, I know the price is what a lot of people focus on.
But PayPal's overall story over the last couple of years is a virtue of competition. Like, make no mistake. Yeah, I know the price is what a lot of people focus on. But PayPal's overall story over the last couple of years is a factor of competition.
I mean, there's a reason why the stock's now trading at, what, like an 8p or 7p?
I don't even know what it's trading at, but it's trading very cheaply now.
And that's by virtue of competition.
Competition can cloud the narrative very quickly.
And so, you know, that's why things happen in fintech.
There are some fintech stocks I'm looking at. I kind of do want a little bit of exposure to some sort
of financials, but there's nothing that's like screaming at me yet. I actually was looking
at some mid-cap banks yesterday night. A couple of those are interesting, but they're not really in my wheelhouse.
FinTech's over banks though, in that area?
I would like to go FinTech over banks just because there's more growth there. And, you know,
it's more my wheelhouse, like my technology wheelhouse, but I just don't like the valuations
as much as I like them in mid-cap regionals. I mean, some of the mid-cap regionals are really,
really attractive. You know, there's some mid-cap regionals. I mean, some of the mid-cap regionals are really, really attractive.
You know, there's some mid-cap regionals that have, like, almost no debt and are trading at very reasonable valuations, growing at high single digits.
Like, that's attractive.
And so, yeah, I have a list of about five mid-cap regional banks that I'm eyeing.
I don't know.
Depending on what the portfolio changes look like for me over the next couple weeks,
there probably will be some.
I will, you know, adjust accordingly.
But, yeah, I do like some of the mid-cap regional banks.
I think some of them are interesting.
And KRE had a great day today, too. So that's not necessarily necessarily off brand with what the market wants right now
what did new york community bank become is it flagstar flg maybe is that one that crossed
the mind at all i think we've talked about on this basis a little bit
that was a kirk name that was a kirk name stock talk flg is that one that uh crossed the radar at
seeing google ceo by the way came out and said they saw search usage search saw more usage than
ever before is one of the quotes that just came out. I see
Emp commenting some of them.
Apple collab for cloud provider.
So what is Google Apple's cloud provider?
Am I tripping
or is Google only up 1% right now?
Did I just say something different?
It came back in.
There you go.
This ain't enough.
Everything he said is pretty solid.
He said YouTube TV is getting new plans as well.
I'm listening to him other year.
I know we're ever in this.
Here's the thing.
Here's another thing.
Let's say Google is spending $180 billion, right?
And that money is going to go to the AI infoplas.
Let's just say it gets split up across all these companies. Beyond Nvidia, that money that's like
$180 billion revenue, let's say this year, getting split between all these different companies.
I don't know, incrementally, it's $60 billion versus what they had guided before. Is that
incremental revenue going to be enough?
And if it comes at the cost of market cap flowing out of Google because people are like,
okay, I think maybe they're spending too much money on reinvestment.
I don't want to be long the stock at 30 plus PE.
If the amount of money that flows out of Google on a print like this,
it won't be made up in the mid caps that are going to be beneficiaries
of this.
So it's just hard for like mathematically on the queues and spy.
I'm seeing Ryan is even commenting more Waymo 400,000 trips per week launching in Miami,
the UK and Japan and some of the locations that will be
coming next logical what else is on your radar in general i know you talked for a little bit
not a crazy amount cash cash is on my radar cash is on your radar what are we at now what's the
what's the the portfolio looking like i'm i'm only 71 i have 29 cash% cash You don't short, correct?
No, I've just realized that
I don't care too
I wanted to short Palantir
I was thinking about it last night
I saw Connor Bates post that
It looks like it's a stage 3 top
Headed to a stage 4 distribution
And I was like, you know what?
It's right below the 200 day
I bet you tomorrow
Because yesterday was such an ugly day
I'm like, I bet we get a little pop in the morning
And maybe that goes back into
the 200 day resistance.
And I'd like to start a short there.
But I woke up and the stock was already down 6%.
And I'm like, I missed it.
And then, you know, I finished the day probably like down like, I don't know, whatever it
was down, but cut down to like 12%.
So I don't like shorts because they can blow up in your face if the market bounces.
So for me, I don't really care to short.
It's still a bull market until it isn't.
I prefer like my edge is pretty good at like navigating volatility.
If I feel that like stocks are losing momentum, I'll just cut the stocks,
especially if the market backdrop is not good.
Like, so let's say the market backdrop is good.
And one of my stocks is losing momentum.
Or like I feel like it's just getting weaker and cutting through moving averages.
I can cut that stock and replace it with another pretty quickly.
Because I have like a watch list of like a bazillion stocks and I like them all.
But if the market backdrop is really bad, then I won't like whenever I sell that stock
losing momentum, I won't reallocate it to a new stock.
I'll just wait. And so lately, that's what I've been noticing is that anything you try to buy,
you get absolutely destroyed. So I'm not in a rush to reallocate that capital. But I think
eventually you'll know when it's time when these things kind of settle down. So I'm like, yeah,
so I could see myself raising more cash. Or if the market shows me signs that it's all going to be fine.
I don't see that.
Not right now anyway.
So I am still pretty biotech heavy.
I don't think it's been a safe haven at all, but they've been holding up a lot better.
They're definitely not connected to the AI narrative.
I had quite a few stocks go red to green or green today. But it doesn't
really matter because I had like a decent amount of leverage, like call positions, etc. and some
other tech names. And so, you know, I ended up red on the day for sure, but not too bad. But my year
to date has gotten absolutely crutched. So I'm not going to sit here and pretend like it's been easy.
crotch so i'm not going to sit here and pretend like it's been easy um it's been spinning your
wheels for a lot of nothing and um yeah so now i have to make sure that i preserve capital and
eventually when we get to the other side of this drawdown or pullback or correction or whatever
that i'll be i have preserved my capital so i can just get super levered long again but
i don't really pay attention to biotech so I don't
know the answer to this but have the have has there been an ability in biotech for single
single stocks to kind of brush off the action and XBI or have they all been getting kind of
grouped up in the selling dude dude xbi has not even been
selling it looks pretty good really yeah i mean it's not bad it's consolidating at the highs
it looks quite good i mean it bounced off the 50 day no it bounced off the 50 day for the first
time today since like april or august yeah so yeah so it's not like it's so the biotechs aren't even
what's dragging you down no at first they were like in terms of like, heck was what was ripping my portfolio.
Okay, okay, okay. My bad. So what's dragging you down?
Tech, for sure. I have like half my portfolio in tech, half my portfolio in bios.
Oh, shit. I didn't even know you upped your tech exposure that much.
A shitload. Yeah, dude. I went from like 90% bios to like 50-50. And now I've cut a ton of tech
because just
nothing is working. Now most of your long exposure is just bios?
I have to check
again, but
I mean, dude, I have like 30% cash
almost right now. So I would say
like at least two-thirds to
three-fourths of my exposure is definitely bios right now.
And they're
holding up pretty nicely. Yeah, no, I'm looking
at it right now. It looks great.
Yeah.
So I'm not really too concerned because, again, it's somewhat healthcare.
I look at biotech as like healthcare growth stocks.
Like sometimes the valuation doesn't make sense, but the value is definitely there.
And, you know, even if you had any sort of consumer recession or whatever,
you know, this is going to do just fine.
It just looks good. So I always like that I've had this kind of balance. But let's be real. I mean, like a lot of this tech,
iGrowth kind of names were leading in January, and now they've fallen since. So I not to say I had to
chase that, but I definitely needed to have that exposure. Because if that's going to be the theme for the year, which it felt like last month, then, you know, I definitely was way more willing,
okay, like, you know, like, this stock looks strong in an uptrend, it's back down to the 21 EMA,
this is an entry point. You know, obviously, I'm still long Synaptics, I'm still long AAOI, which is
super volatile stock. I'm still long Schmid Group, which is a name that Mystic's long.
That thing's like my biggest winner of the year.
So like the tech names have actually been
my biggest winners of the year.
I would say the bios have just more or less
been resilient,
not really up or down much.
They're just kind of like,
they've been flat on the year.
So I don't know if I'd call that a win,
but I understand the businesses.
The charts look great.
They have reasons for meaningful upside in the year
that are egosyncratic.
They can get bought out,
and I think we have barely seen any buyouts year-to-date.
I think that'll continue to pick up.
So I'm just sitting in a lot of these names
that look pretty good.
So let me see if I could pull up one
for you. I mean, it's kind of a lot of these look like XBI. They're like really like just
consolidating at the highs. So like really nothing bad, just kind of like doing nothing.
They've just gone sideways all year. So just being patient, anything that's like losing, like for example, Galaxy Digital.
Galaxy is an interesting company, but obviously with the crypto stuff, it's been plugged into
that weakness.
The reason I got long again on Galaxy is because they announced that they got the additional
830 megawatts of power, which means that they have a huge data center contract that they
can sign.
That's like a very big catalyst. They're just waiting for that approval. So the stock, you know,
like gaps up, pushes up, shallow pullback looks beautiful. And I guess maybe the crypto weakness,
it just broke below the range. It like was a failed, you know, the failed run. And I cut it
when I could see it lose that low the range, it just felt like the bottom fell run. And I cut it when I could see it lose that low of the range.
It just felt like the bottom fell out.
And I knew they had earnings coming up.
And I knew crypto was weak.
And I closed the stock around $28.
I mean, it closed around $20 today.
It's another 30% of downside in like three days.
So I am very quick at cutting exposure in situations where you can tell the backdrop is not good and you notice that things are losing momentum. It's just not constructive. my goal will just be to let this resolve settle down.
And I think on the other end of this,
you're going to have a ton of great opportunities.
I don't think they're going to come like tomorrow.
They're going to take some time and I'm totally okay with that.
So because I've given back a lot of my year-to-date performance,
I want to make sure I don't go into red territory.
So I need to stop the bleeding. That's just what I'm doing. I know that, like, let's say we resolve
all of this stuff and stocks are down. God knows how much lower. Could you imagine how much
opportunity we're going to have? Like, what if we have another, like, April 2025 moment, right? I mean, your dollar is going to go a lot further in that scenario.
So I'm not necessarily preparing for it,
but I'm being mindful that that is exactly how I'll make a ton of money back.
It's also still only February 4th.
We had a long year in front of us.
I imagine, I know when you look back at seasonality,
pre of the,
you know,
in the midterm year,
it's going to be pretty difficult.
And then once you get it over with.
I thought like,
look,
man,
we had a 5% correction in November.
So I assumed,
you know,
that would get us a safe Q1.
And I expected the real correction to happen in Q2. But I guess because the Qs
never made a new all time high. The Qs never made an all time high after October 29, I
think. Maybe that invalidates it because the Qs are what's really dragging down the market.
Like S&P made a high after that correction, but the Qs didn't. So perhaps we've just been in this correction
since October 29 ever since,
and maybe that's still the same correction.
And while everyone was expecting it to be in Q2,
maybe people are front running that correction
or expected correction now.
I mean, it could end up being a nothing burger,
but you can tell that people are de-grossing tech.
So people are selling and aware of the seasonality
of midterm years, you know, in case he goes on a run
and says, oh, you know, it's Main Street's turn again.
And, you know, what if, you know, he starts saying,
oh, we're gonna like reduce this, you know, AI data center.
Who knows what this guy says?
He doesn't mean any of it, but, you know,
narrative can shift pretty quickly,
especially around midterms.
Yeah, we have a very interesting year in front of us.
That is one thing for sure in the stock market.
We're going to have a lot to talk about on the stocks on Spaces.
A lot to talk about, that is for sure.
A couple other headlines coming up here.
YouTube Shorts is now averaging 200 billion daily viewers youtube shorts 200 billion daily viewers i guess earlier search
saw more usage than ever before is another quote that came out from this earnings call that's going
on right now google ceo sundar pachai speaking you remember two quarters ago maybe three when
everyone said search was dead and Google was dead?
Now Search is setting the record for the most usage that it's ever had.
It never stops, really.
People just started kind of getting this idea that AI was going to come and do something.
There's even companies like a Duolingo who, I mean, we'll see what you're seeing in the numbers,
but it's definitely a lot more of a narrative-driven struggle than anything else right now.
So that is definitely what has happened to that search business.
But yeah, more people searching than ever.
AI search becoming a part of this.
Am I wrong?
I thought yesterday was the highest volume ever on IGV.
But I'm looking at the candle today,
and it is insane
if that's the case.
Anyone have that information?
I do not know for sure. I remember you guys
talking about it yesterday though.
People were saying yesterday's IGV candle.
It was.
Yesterday's like twice as big.
Yeah, yesterday was
26 million. It was the highest
ever after last Thursday,
which was the second highest ever at 23.
Today it was like 45.
So it's like doubled the highest day today.
And you saw a lot of those stocks in IGV gap down and get bought up today.
Even though the market was selling,
you saw a ton of gap down and buy up on software.
But you know, it's weird, I'm looking at individual names and they didn't necessarily
have higher volume today than yesterday. Oh, man, I got to look into this. I got to hop
for a meeting as cheers. Nice talking to you. I appreciate you, sir. We're gonna go into a little
bit of a different conversation here talking some more of the themes we got going on in this market uh we got our friend adam patty the amazing adam patty joining us up here how
you doing sir the amazing i i like that a wonderful and powerful adam patty wow i feel
great don't my wife would totally disagree with all of that um no all good man what a what a
crazy market today though i mean it's the last
couple days have been something special um you know we just got to power through and stick to
our plan and uh you know look for opportunities you know yeah i want to be able to talk about
some ticker specific stuff so i'm going to read out a quick disclosure but um but yeah i appreciate
everyone for being here you guys should definitely make sure that you are following the amazing speakers up here.
We're live on Stocks on Spaces every single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern, at least.
Days like today, we have an awesome conversation here.
So we're going to be going over.
And we appreciate you guys for being here with us.
We're going to talk about a couple tickers, a couple ETFs that the wonderful and powerful Adam Patti has helped
put together for us in the VistaShares team. But an investor should carefully consider a fund's
investment objectives, risk, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary
prospectus contain this information and other information about the VistaShares ETFs. And you
can obtain this information and a fund, all the key information, funds prospectus on the VistaShares ETFs. And you can obtain this information and all the key information,
funds prospectus, on the VistaShares website. That is VistaShares.com. And from that,
a fund's prospectus and key information should be read carefully before investing.
We're excited to be working with the VistaShares team. Mr. Adam, we did have Google earnings
coming up today. And I want to focus in on the
obviously the new launch the bit bonds etf but with google earnings coming up uh today uh ais
is obviously one of the big etfs that you guys have it is your vista shares ai super cycle etf
it's a really interesting the way you guys put this together with the build of materials for
these data centers we had google today they came out and gave some CapEx guidance for the year.
Google said it expects to spend between $175 billion to $185 billion on CapEx in 2026. Let
me repeat that. $175 billion to $185 billion on CapEx expected to be spent this year. Wall Street
was expecting closer to like 130 140
billion dollars so large capex increase there now we don't necessarily know hey this is going
directly towards data centers but I mean my mind goes to I mean what else are we spending it on
so that was a very big with the first thing I saw when I when I thought of that well I would be
lying first thing I thought of was Jensen second second thing was adam patty
and the data center is an ais so um i'm curious to hear your initial reaction hearing that i'm sure
you're not super surprised based on the stuff and maybe talk us through a little bit about this ais
etf and kind of how you guys are putting it together and you know how how it all works
yeah and look i'm not surprised i mean uha came out with a similar upgrade in their CapEx spend when they had their earnings call. I forget what the numbers were. I think they brought it up to 150 from 125 billion for the year.
infrastructure build out. You know, we still think we're in the first inning, frankly. And,
you know, it's become an arms race, right? I mean, it's not just the hyperscalers in the United
States that need to spend the money, but it's companies around the world and its sovereigns,
right? It's countries that are in the game now. I mean, look what's going on in Saudi Arabia.
You know, they're building out their whole campus there for, you know, the humane
initiatives out there. So, you know, the humane initiative out there.
So, you know, there are just hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars being deployed.
And it has to be deployed because, you know, the AI, you know, we need to be premier, have the premier AI infrastructure and LMMs and agents and all that stuff.
It has to be here in the United States because it's a national security risk at the end of the day. So I just think it's going to even get a little more intense as we
move forward because over the next year or two, there'll be some semblance of who's ahead and
who's not. I mean, everyone says the United States is ahead right now, but who knows? One
announcement from China or another country could turn the whole thing upside down.
So I think it's a very important area right now
for investors to be looking at.
We built AIS to capitalize on it.
So if you look at all the AI ETFs in the marketplace,
most of them are MAG7 consumer-facing software type plays.
We took a very different approach.
So we analyzed the supply chain of the data centers in the AI space and the semiconductors.
And we identify those companies that are critical to building those data centers and the semiconductor infrastructure. So when Meta or Google
deploys $100 billion into AI, the cash register needs to ring across all the companies in our
portfolio. So it's a very different approach. And it's borne out to be very successful,
no surprise, because we're not following, we're not buying the hype, we're buying the cash flows. So we're trying to find where those cash flows are going, where
those profit pools are, and that's where we're investing. So, you know, our portfolio looks
very different than any of the other products out there. There's very little overlap with
the S&P 500 or the Qs. And there's also very little overlap
with the AI ETFs in the market.
Again, because, and their overlap
is very significant with the SPY or the Qs.
Because again, they're focused
on those mega cap tech companies.
So, you know, it's done very well.
Today was a rough day for chip stocks.
So we had a drawdown today at AIS,
which, you know, about 4%,
which gives you
a nice buying opportunity i think um but even with that i think we're up ten percent year to date
we were up i think 62 last year so um you know we just got to stay the course and um
and you know keep deploying the capital into the companies we think are going to benefit from the capex spend yeah i love it um i did pin up in the nest above there is a bunch
of the tickers up there if we are say anything and you're like what ticker did they say it'll
be one of the ones pinned up in the nest above and then if you look down in the spaces chat the
bottom right of your screen the purple 41 i did put the link to the vista shares website you should
go in dig in there.
And if you guys have any more questions, anything like that.
Before I move over to the new ETF that I want to ask you about, AIS, can you tell me a little
bit more about how you guys are picking the stocks?
I know you guys talked about the build of materials and everything right there, but can
you tell me a little bit more about the team behind it?
Yeah.
In fact, you read my mind because I should have mentioned that first.
So yeah, so we create our core portfolio should have mentioned that first. So, yeah.
So we create our core portfolio using this supply chain bill of materials analysis.
And we filed a patent on that.
And frankly, you can go right to our website and pull down our methodology doc and you can see exactly how we do that.
So we rebalance that portfolio twice a year in June and in December.
But that is, you know, that's part of the secret sauce.
The real secret sauce is,
and to your point, who's running the fund. So we have an investment committee. So we're an active
strategy. So our investment committee is made up of what I'd call the practitioners and the
portfolio construction people. So on the practitioner side, we have John McNeil,
who's the co-founder of VistaShares. John was the president of Tesla.
He was a chief operating officer at Lyft. He's on the board of General Motors. He is vice chairman
of GM's autonomous vehicle subsidiary. You can Google him. You'll see he's a globally renowned
expert in AI, electrification, robotics, right across the board of all these cutting edge technologies.
Similarly, we have Sonny Madra on our investment committee.
Now, Sonny was the president of a company called Grok, G-R-O-Q, which was a leading private company in the inference layer of AI, which is where all the action is happening
now.
First, it was the training layer.
Now it's the inference layer.
So anyway, NVIDIA
just bought Grok about a month ago. So Sonny is now running the hardware division over at NVIDIA.
So he's on our investment committee. And clearly he knows something about AI. He's been building
data centers around the world for many years. And on the portfolio construction side, we've got
myself. And then we've got Professor Robert Whitelaw, who's the former dean of NYU Stern School of Business, former chairman of the finance department there.
Then we also have our EVP investment strategist, who is actually John McNeil's right-hand man,
just a brilliant strategist who kind of bridges between the subject matter experts and the
portfolio construction. He kind of is the gel on the team.
So, yeah, we've got a lot of expertise.
And, you know, our job is not to trade.
So we're not waking up in the morning and saying, oh, you know,
Palantir had great earnings, let's buy them.
We actually don't even have Palantir in the portfolio
because they're not part of the infrastructure as we define it.
You know, our job is to identify risks and opportunities. So when
Sonny, for instance, just use an example, he is, you know, building these data centers, he's got a
bird's eye view of the entire industry globally. You know, when he says, oh, there's a new cooling
technology that's starting to, you know, infringe on the pipeline of Vertiv, which is the leader in
the cooling segment, and there isn't, I'm just making this up.
You know, that's a company we want to put on the on the on the list, on the watch list.
You know, similarly, if there's, you know, some change in the way data centers are being built
where certain vendors are no longer as important, you know, we need to know that early
so we can react to that in the portfolio.
So we don't trade a lot.
We trade on risks and opportunities, kind of to that in the portfolio. So we don't trade a lot. We trade on risks and
opportunities, kind of structural changes in the way that data centers and semiconductors
are built and deployed for AI. Awesome. I want to shift the conversation a little bit here.
You guys can see in the title, the VistaShares team had a new launch.
I believe it just came out yesterday.
So congrats on that.
Whenever you guys come out with new products,
new lines, I'm excited to watch it.
And you guys are only trying to do
very new and different stuff in the space.
So I expect something interesting here.
The ticker is BTYB.
And if you guys look at it,
we'll see the Vistas shares BitBonds
five-year enhanced weekly option income ETF. BTYB. And you guys, like I'm saying, make sure
you do your research. We talked about this a little bit last week. So I hope you guys came in.
If any of you have questions down below, I can go through and take them. But tell me a little bit
more about this new BTY BitBonds ETF that you guys launched. Thank you. Yeah, I mean,
we are really excited about this one. We've been building this and testing it for well over a year,
and we've got a full family of them behind it. So, you know, what this is trying to solve for
is a couple of things. First, I mean, most of your listeners probably don't buy annuities,
but, you know, the whole annuity business
where you're getting consistent income is broken.
The other part of it is, you know,
investors, you know, like fixed income, right?
They like treasuries, they like fixed income.
It's kind of been dead money for a long time.
And of course the rates are really low.
So it's not much juice there.
So what we did here is we developed this BitBond concept.
And what it is very simple, It's 80% treasuries. So 80% treasury exposure with an average duration
of five years. So we look at, we look for durations between three and seven. So an average of
five, that's 80% of the portfolio. The other part of the port, the other 20% is Bitcoin exposure. We actually use, you know, we use futures to capture the price movement of Bitcoin. So that's for 20% of the exposure. So it's an 80-20 split, Treasuries-Bitcoin. And then what we do is we overlay an options income strategy on part of the Bitcoin exposure to double the yield of the Treasuries.
on part of the Bitcoin exposure to double the yield of the treasuries.
So if the five year bonds are averaging around 3.8%,
we're looking to generate somewhere between seven and a half and 8% annually.
And it's a weekly payer.
So it's a really different way to generate income.
It's, you know, you know, Bitcoin obviously is a major drawdown
over the last month or so or two months.
So we think it's a good entry point. Of course, you know, since we launched yesterday, we've seen two down days.
But, you know, that'll eventually turn around.
So for those who are interested in Bitcoin, it gives you a way to get some Bitcoin exposure with a little less volatility. And for those who are just looking for some steady income with less volatility,
because treasuries are just lower volatility,
it gets you that pretty fat yield on an annual basis, and you get paid weekly.
So it's a nice diversifier for your portfolio.
I have a couple questions here.
I'm curious on like how does the the how you obviously can't tell
us anything like for fact going forward but how do you expect this to move from a price perspective
um you know would we expect it to kind of track off bitcoin a little bit would you try like i'm
curious on how the price moves here on this one um and then maybe we start there and we'll instead
of doing 10 questions at
once we'll do one at a time but yeah i'm curious if you expect the price to move on this yeah i mean
bitcoin bitcoin is a lot more volatile clearly than treasuries though volatility has come down and as
bitcoin matures volatility profile will be reduced as well so um but you know, certainly as Bitcoin goes up, that's going to impact pretty heavily on 20 percent of the portfolio.
Similarly, when rates go down, which we anticipate rates will go continually go down over the next at least 12 months.
You know, hopefully we'll have some reductions over the over the next several months.
So that will make the fixed income price movement go up. Right.
So prices, interest rates go down, prices go up.
So if the interest rates do come down, that 80 percent of treasuries will react favorably for capital appreciation.
And then, of course, the Bitcoin should hopefully recover from the 73 level and have some nice juice to the upside.
and have some nice juice to the upside.
So we think it's definitely a capital appreciation play,
but it's mostly a yield play.
It's a weekly payer.
So you want to expect to get a nice paycheck every week
with some nice price movement over time,
but it's certainly not designed to blow the doors off
on capital appreciation.
Yeah, that makes sense.
I know we had the target 15 ones, and this one, this one,
the target is really double the five-year treasury bond yield,
which does make sense in there.
I'm curious on some of the choices of why the five-year bond yield,
and maybe not 10, maybe not three.
I'm curious on what was some of the stuff in there,
maybe why Bitcoin over some others, maybe the weekly pay versus monthly versus quarterly.
I'm curious some of the decisions behind the structure.
So we have a full family ready to go. We have a one to three year. We have the five year. We have a 10 year and we have a 20 year.
We chose the five year because that is typically not always, but it's typically the most popular from an investor
perspective, that duration.
And if you look in the ETF market, there's a lot more assets in that five-year segment
than in the others.
So we wanted something, and we like them all for different uses.
The shorter term is more of a cash alternative.
So we like that,
we wanna bring that out as well.
But we thought this was the right place to start
based on what investors are typically looking for
and frankly, where the assets are flowing.
So that's why we chose that.
We chose Bitcoin because clearly Bitcoin is this,
you know, it's the most prevalent
in the marketplace globally.
You know, people know it.
It's also the most mature. I mean. You know, people know it. It's also the most mature.
I mean, Ethereum is, you know, close, but Bitcoin is probably the most mature of the
cryptocurrencies.
So, you know, over time, volatility will come down in Bitcoin, which will be a nice
match for the treasuries.
You still get the capital appreciation, but a little less volatility profile, which will
be nice.
And we chose weekly because, frankly, investors are asking for it.
You know, our target 15s are monthly.
This will be a weekly.
And we'll have another family coming out, you know, at some point outside of the target
15s that will be monthly as well.
But we'll pay on a mid-month instead of end of month.
So you can get paid, you know, all month long using VistaShares ETFs.
That's kind of the vision.
Very nice.
Again, ticker we're talking about here is BTYB.
If you're questioning what I'm saying here,
the tweet pinned up on this above has all the tickers,
and it's also in the title of BTYB.
And the link to the website is down below in the comment section,
that purple 42 in the bottom right of your screen and it should show up right at the top there has been some
definitely interest here in the first two trading days obviously it's you know a new product comes
out we gotta kind of let some people file in and find it out but already has 2 million AUM in it
according to the website a couple thousand shares traded every single day. So there's clearly a little bit of interest in this one.
Yeah, it's definitely a part.
Why is this a part of the market that excites you?
Just in general, you know, you guys have a whole suite you were coming.
What about this part of the market?
What about being able to serve this part of the market excites you?
What hold do you think you're seeing?
Well, it's a great complement to our existing products, right?
So if you look at our products, we've got our equity growth products,
which is AIS and POW, which is, you know, power infrastructure.
Then we've got kind of our equity liquid alternatives,
which are the, you know, the Omaha,
which I'd love to mention a little while, our target 15s, right?
So you've got the, you know,
the options overlay there for the target 15s that are nice diversifiers in the equity space.
This is our first foray into the fixed income space.
We wanted to, of course, do it in a way that nobody else is doing it.
And hopefully something that adds a lot of value to investor portfolios.
So really excited about the opportunities in the fixed income space.
You know, we'll be doing more in this space as well.
And this is our first little toe in the water. And I think this is going to be a blockbuster product based on the feedback we're getting. So there's not much in terms of direct
competitors to this type of product as well. I mean, certainly there are income generating
ETFs based on Bitcoin and Ethereum and things like that.
But, you know, the way we've constructed it with the treasuries is a very different vehicle.
It's a whole different animal.
It's a great diversifier for your portfolio.
If you're looking for just a steady income stream, you know, we're not looking to blow the doors off, you know, double the treasury yield.
But, you know, it's nice, steady income. And that's what we're hearing
that investors are looking for. Yeah, that makes sense. Ryan, if I could throw it over to you,
Mr. Ryan, sir. I wonder if you have any questions here for Adam joining us today.
Hey, Adam, great to chat with you again. I mean, with where we're at in
the market, I'm, my brain is, he's looking at the earnings right now, but the 13F season coming up
just still, I'm just curious with what we're seeing in software and all this stuff going on.
I'm just curious if you have any, I don't know if insights is the term, but just any thoughts about
maybe what some like Drunken Miller and
some of these other guys, Ackman, are kind of doing with their portfolios up here where
we've been at highs. We've been at highs for a while, kind of just reading across the market.
We've seen, you know, broadening in the market and software obviously taking a hit here of late.
I'm just, any thoughts of what we may see in 13F season? Any thoughts of maybe what you kind of see in the market right now, just broadly?
Because I'm very curious to kind of see what some of these bigger minds are doing.
Well, it's hard for me to speculate what will happen in 13Fs, but I'll tell you what I firmly see.
And I've been talking about it for months, and I guess I was a little too early.
But, you know, we've been in a momentum-driven market for years at this point, and it's been largely driven by the mag seven.
You know, so the S&P 500, the Q's have gone straight up for years and everyone looked like a genius because, you know, you're in those and boom, you're up 17 percent, 20 percent, whatever the numbers are.
You know, the S&P 500 is around 40 percent concentrated in the top 10 holdings, which is the MAG7+.
Same as the Qs.
The Qs is actually, I think, around, well, S&P might be 35, 40, and I think the Qs is
around 45% in pretty much the same companies.
There's a couple of differences in the top 10, but pretty much the same.
So all these investors are over-concentrated in the same positions.
And what I've been talking about for a long time is that, look, we're not always in a
momentum market.
You know, eventually the factor tilt in the market changes to something.
It could be low vol, could be quality, could be value.
I've been talking about it moving to more of a value tilt or a quality tilt for some
time.
And, you know, those are typically more stock picker markets.
So I think we're going into more of a stock picker market.
And if you look at Berkshire Hathaway as an example, you know, that is a value tilted
portfolio.
Berkshire Hathaway, and we have OMAH, which is our, you know, our Berkshire Hathaway Target
15 product with, you know, the top 20 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway plus Berkshire Hathaway
in the portfolio.
It's lagged terribly since April. It's lagged the S&P 500 because the MAG-7 is just roaring
over the last nine months or continue to roar. So Berkshire Hathaway has not performed well,
and Omaha has lagged as well well though on a total return basis
we've performed a lot better than Berkshire Hathaway because of our 1.25 percent with a month we pay
on a dividend but um I guess my point is that that changes and if you look over the last five days
as all this all this rotation has happened out of some of these mega cap tech names
all of this rotation has happened out of some of these mega cap tech names,
look at Berkshire's performance.
Look at Omaha's performance over the last five days,
just decimating the S&P 500, right?
So typically Berkshire Hathaway and value-tilted portfolios
perform exceedingly well during this type of rotation.
And this rotation has longevity because once you're
in a value tilted market that has, you know, certain period of time where it remains and
whether it's a year or two years, whatever it may be. And I think we're finally there because
we're seeing the performance completely. The switch is flipped completely from the tech names
to the value names. You kind of read my mind. That's kind of
where I was headed with that was seeing Berkshire's performance the last few days, seeing the value
stocks, the kind of the boring boomer type of stocks. I mean, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, some of the,
even trucking companies, J.B. Hunt. And so I was kind of curious your take around this because
it does seem like somewhere where Berkshire would, especially with their cash pile, would probably outperform the market.
Do you think that we need tech and software to lead?
I actually did the mathematics the other day.
I was looking at the top 10 stocks in the NASDAQ are like 61% of the index.
So it's your MAG7, it's Broadcom, Netflix, and Costco. And they're 61% of the
NASDAQ in a weighting. And so I'm just curious. I mean, it's been a tech-driven market. It's been
an AI kind of led market, I guess, and the leader's leading. And they're not leading right now. Does
that cause any concern for you? Or do you think, hey hey they're just cooling off and we're just broadening
the market's still gonna you know maybe hold in up here well i didn't realize it was up to 61 i
didn't rerun that i i said 40 45 wow it's it's gonna be even more excessive um no i'm not
concerned at all i just think investors need to be a little bit more diligent on their research so
you know whether it's ai or tech, that's two different things, right?
I mean, I think it's a two-tiered market, right?
It's mega cap tech and it's everything else in tech at this point.
So, you know, which is why we think AIS is a great play for AI
because we're not just buying what everyone else is buying.
We're buying the companies that are soaking up the cash flow
being deployed by the mega cap tech. It's a whole different game, what we're playing with AIS than
most others are playing. I don't think it's a concern at all. I think those stocks have had
a massive run. I don't think we're going to see a massive drawdown in them. I just think we're
going to see the rest of the market catch up because it's been left behind over the last few
years. And what are those companies? Generally, like you said, it's the left behind over the last few years. And, you know, what are those companies?
You know, generally, like you said, it's, you know, it's the boomer companies, right?
It's the boring.
It's consumer staples.
It's financials, right? Some of the biggest inflows in the ETF market have been into the financial sector over the
last week or so in anticipation of this shift in this rotation into a different kind of
regime, you know, if you want to call it.
So I think investors want to be in more value-tilted portfolios
and be more selective on how they get exposure to tech
if they want to perform over the next, call it 12 to 24 months.
So obviously you guys have the OMAH ETF, Omaha ETF,
following, as you were saying, Berkshire
Hathaway, Warren Buffett, largest holdings, plus Berkshire Hathaway, doing a covered call
spread on top of them and getting, covered call spread might be the wrong word, but we're
doing covered calls on top of them and getting a 15% target annual income on them.
It is obviously, now Warren Buffett has, and you can correct anything I said there, Warren
Buffett has stepped down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, still on as the chairman.
But the 13F that we were going to get in about a week or so was his last one as CEO.
So I'm curious reflecting there at all.
But even when you look forward, when you look at Greg Abel in the position with 300-something
billion dollars of cash, being able to invest and make moves with, it'll be very intriguing
to see how the story of
Berkshire Hathaway continues going forward. But doing it with $300 billion plus in cash is a
decent place to be. So I'm curious, as you were saying there, OMH, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett,
Berkshire has been outperforming the last week or so as we've kind of fallen into this market.
But I'm curious there a little bit more on Buffett specifically,
Greg Abel, that position there in OMH. Yeah, I think OMH and Berkshire are going to outperform
going forward for sure, just based on the rotation. And I think, look, I mean, Greg Abel's
been there for 20 plus years. He's been running the day-to-day operations for four or five years.
He's steeped in Warren Buffett's philosophy. You know, Warren
Buffett is, yes, he's the best investor in history. But I think more importantly, he has kind of
fathered an entire philosophy around investing. And that philosophy is embedded in the culture
and the DNA of Berkshire Hathaway. So Greg Abel is his protege, and he is not going to be, you know,
moving away from that philosophy. What I do think he's gonna do is he's gonna,
he's coming to the table with, you know, renewed energy,
perhaps different perspectives on some of the sectors
and probably, you know, be willing to cut some things out
that, you know, Buffett, you know,
hesitated to do for probably too long, like Kraft Heinz, right?
I mean, there's been news about, you know,
ABLE kind of getting out of that position.
So I think we're gonna see some, you know,
house cleaning on some of the, you know,
some of the securities or some of the companies that,
you know, haven't done that well, maybe.
And, you know, probably looking to deploy
some of that 300 billion into, you know,
perhaps new sectors or, you know, doubling down into some of that 300 billion into perhaps new sectors or doubling down into
some of the sectors like energy and so forth where he has a lot of expertise.
Oops, sorry. Yeah, that will make sense. It will be interesting to see what their tech
exposure looks like going forward. I'm excited to see that. As you kind of pointed out yourself, that a lot of portfolios, just basic portfolios will track closely to S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
You have all these big tech names, but a lot of stuff you guys are creating are different.
But also a lot of these institutional, big, famous investors have very different portfolios.
I know a Druckenmiller and a Buffett have very different portfolios than a lot of other people
like the S&P 500.
It's very interesting to see the different names, see which ones are working, see what sectors they're in.
The 13Fs are a very intriguing part of the market.
I enjoy the education there to see what smart people are in.
Yeah, I mean, that's why I think that's why it underscores why we launched a product like Ackie, A-C-K-Y, which is our Bill Ackman portfolio, or Druckenmiller, D-R-K-Y, because it's a stock picking market, I think, is where we're headed.
And, you know, who's better at stock picking than these guys?
And their portfolios just look very, very different than a Buffett or an S&P 500. You're getting exposure to companies that you may have no exposure to, or at least very little, if most of your equities are coming from,
you know, the S&P 500, for instance. So, you know, if you look at, you know, Ackman, his top
holding is Brookfield Corporation, you know, or his second is Uber, which had great earnings. I
mean, I think it was down today. So they do have tech exposure.
You know, Ackman's got Alphabet. He's got Amazon. But they're very selective in how they're choosing
their positions, and they have a lot of conviction behind them.
As people are doing their research here, and, you know and they come up with questions, I'm sure you
guys will, where can they kind of, is there a Q&A part on the website, maybe DMs, emails,
anything like that?
If they have questions as they're doing their research, where should people reach out to?
Yeah.
I mean, our website is a great resource at VistaShares.com.
We've got a ton of white papers, research reports, thought pieces, videos.
It's all up on our website.
We're constantly refreshing that with new information.
So that's a great resource for sure.
We, you know, I've tried to do these, you know, with you guys as much as possible to,
you know, I'm happy to, of course, always answer questions.
You know, you could also reach out on X, you know, I'm on X, Adam Patty and,
you know, or VistaSharesX, you can DM us there.
Now, we can't always answer questions on social media
because of compliance.
So if I don't respond, just recognize it's because I can't.
But, you know, sometimes I can, depends on the question.
So, but I would just dig into the portfolios.
Like you said at the top of the call, whatever you buy, whether it's something from Vista
Shares or from any provider or any wrapper, whether it's a mutual fund, ETF, whatever
it is, look under the hood at what you're buying.
Because just because it's called something doesn't mean that's what it is.
If you're buying an AI ETF, make sure you're not buying MAG-7 exposure and paying 75 basis
points for it. So,
you know, financial services is very marketing driven. And, you know, look, we're marked,
we market too, right? Obviously, but it's really all about the portfolio and what exposure you're
getting. And does that fit within what you already own? Because what a lot of investors do, they buy
the S and P, they buy the cues. Okay., good. They think they're diversified in their core equity.
And then they're loading up on more of the same.
They're buying more Google.
They're buying more of Meta, whatever it may be.
So they have so much over concentration risk
in their portfolio in times like this,
when there's a rotation or a pause, I should say,
in upward trajectory of the Mag 7, that hurts.
So you want to be diversified.
It's very true. Great words. Is there anything you want to, I mean,
you kind of did maybe that was the final words leaving the people with,
but is there anything you want to leave the people with on this spaces here?
Maybe anything we didn't get the chance to talk about that you were excited
about?
No, I appreciate all your time. I appreciate all your listeners where, you know,
we've done very well so far as a young company because of your listeners. And, you know, I really appreciate all your time. I appreciate all your listeners. We've done very well so far as a young company because of your listeners. And I really appreciate all your support. I would just, again, think about the value tilts. Go into, look at things that are, where the rotation is going. You don't want to be in what has happened over the last several years. You want to go where things should happen. And to me, I firmly believe
it's in more value-oriented securities, which may be tech. Tech could be value too. Just be
more selective in what you're investing in. I really much appreciate you, Mr. Adam Patti.
Pinned up in the nest above is the link to the VistaShares website. There's another tweet up there that has all the websites, sorry, all the ETFs that we have on there.
Our goal is you should put interesting products from really smart and great people and put them
on your radar so you guys can go in and do your research and figure out if it's right for you.
It is not just for you to go in and click buy and do all that stuff. Adam's a really smart guy.
He's creating a really smart team around him.
I love ETFs for even just as simple as,
you know, people who are really building data centers,
really smart people in the space.
They came together and said,
this is the list of stuff that we find important in the stocks.
And we're going to rank it for you too
by percentages and stuff like that.
So no matter what,
websites are a great place to go in
and find what really smart people
who have done their research are doing and saying so um check that tweet pinned up in
the nest above link over to that vista shares website we also have the adam patty account
that's up here the vista shares x account that is up here make sure you are following both of them
uh and if you guys just send this account or the stock market news account or anyone like that
a question like question for Vista shares space.
And then just put your question after that.
I will ask it on here next time we get Adam and you can listen to it live,
but I appreciate everyone for joining us in here. Again,
that tweet is pinned up in the list above has the link to the Vista shares
website. Our goal is to create informed investors.
So we hope that you you guys will uh do your
research ask questions use the tools and yeah thank you mr adam thank you guys appreciate your
time yeah quite the outro there that's uh that's a specialty a little ramble towards the end but
what would be a space without that i'm also i'm also late for a meeting anyway so all right we're
sitting here rambling doing that have a great a great one, everyone. Check the tweet pin, dump the list above.
We will catch you all tomorrow.
Amazon earnings.
Amazon earnings getting incoming live on the spaces.
Get excited.
Appreciate y'all.
Have a great one, team. Thank you.
