Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
GOOGLE EARNINGS | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: April 24, 2025 Duration: 2:02:45Space Recording
Short Summary
The market is experiencing a bullish trend with major indices showing significant gains, driven by strong performances from tech stocks like Netflix and positive economic indicators. The recent Zweig Breadth Thrust signals potential growth, while discussions around gold and Fed rate cuts suggest a favorable environment for both traditional and crypto markets.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
How is everyone doing?
Welcome into Stocks on Spaces. afternoon everyone how is everyone doing welcome into stocks on spaces let me get the title
updated because we do have some google earnings today i'll get that update in just a second
as we start to go around here um we're up we're green a lot of big green names today across the
board quick market update spy up 1.6 or 1.9 i sorry. QQQ up 2.55%.
IWM and the Dow both over 1% up.
And VIX down 4.8% today.
Big gainers, of course, across the board in a lot of things.
I mean, 3% to 4% up, most of your MAG7.
Broadcom sticks out the most to me.
And the large cap tech up 6% today.
And I'm sure we'll hear about some other bright spots in the market.
And what everyone's thinking as we have a beautiful day.
Yesterday, I did mention briefly, I noticed QQQ had reclaimed and held as low of day the 20-day moving average.
Today, SPY did the exact same thing, held low of day right on the 20-day moving average today spy did the exact same thing held low of day right on the 20-day moving
average and with that said let's go ahead and kick it off evan anything from you before we start
hitting the panel no i think we're good i'm looking forward to it google earnings interesting days
i'm glad it's not stock market analysis analysis today. Yeah, I changed that quickly.
And I'll get that title updated.
We'll throw Google in there.
We will have Google earnings.
I believe there's a couple other earnings after the bell.
We'll see if anybody's looking forward to those.
Call those out here shortly.
In the meantime, let's go ahead and get started and go around the panel.
Logical, you were one of the first ones up here today.
Let's start off with you this afternoon.
See what you're thinking, what you're seeing out there. Any updated thoughts and any trades you maybe took today?
man, I can't pronounce this, the Zweg Breath Thrust, the ZBT. And there's a really interesting
stat posted by Ryan Dietrich, who can sometimes be called a permable, but he uses data and facts
to back his position. And ultimately, we haven't been going lower, even though the tariff headlines
have not been improving, which is interesting to me. So I pay a lot more attention to price action in these situations.
And so he had a post, you know, if more than 75% of the stocks on NYSE are higher today
and looking pretty likely as of now, a rare ZBT will trigger today.
Since World War II, the S&P 500 has never been lower six and 12 months later.
So I take that pretty seriously.
Last time we had this, I believe, was in the bottom of November 2023.
We also had one during the banking crisis in early 2023.
So it typically marks bottoms or like that we had just seen a
bottom. So, you know, I am very open to every, uh, possible scenario, but that to me is pretty,
uh, bullish leaning. So, you know, I think if we were to look back six months from now and we see, you know, tariffs already have
been walked back, they're much milder than originally discussed, they can, maybe they're
only 10%. Okay, well, we can deal with 10%, whatever the outcome ends up being, right? Like,
let's say it's a bit more positive, because I think the headlines have basically said, you know,
145% is definitely the worst case scenario.
And market hasn't necessarily flinched beyond those lows of 481, which again, if we look
back in six months, are we going to just look back and say, hey, 481, that was a perfect
retest of the bull market breakout, the 2022 highs.
So I'm very open to any, like I've been trading both sides of this market short and long
and really i've never been net short i've always been net long uh but at times i've been putting
on more shorts or less shorts and um for today you know as much as i hate it because the volume
has been really light on this rip and we still have that gap to fill just below us, maybe a couple percent below from yesterday's gap up.
I didn't want to, but I did close my shorts today.
And, you know, I'm going to be very nimble and, you know, wait to see
because if we see some sort of failed breakout or something like that,
then that would be bearish and I would get back to defensive.
But for the meantime, what I did was I closed my shorts.
I trimmed some of my longs so I can get my net long exposure still down a bit because it was very, very high since the shorts were offsetting it.
But yeah, I'm very long right now in this market.
And yeah, I'm just kind of taking it day by day.
I've been pivoting very quickly.
If anyone follows me, then they know my positioning.
I always post about it.
And I'll always go from very long to way less net long by layering on shorts or trimming positions that I feel like are at risk.
So yeah, that's kind of how I'm taking it day by day.
I still think that you're going to still see slowdown in the economy.
But what's really important about stocks and understanding the market is that while the economic data will actually likely worsen from here over the next 6 to 12 months, typically stocks bottom anywhere between like 8 and 10 months before the hard economic
data bottom. So, you know, people will probably, you know, hate any sort of rally. And I think
that's kind of what happens in these situations when everyone is so bearish that, you know,
they, they're like, well, you know, they're going to see an unemployment print or something and
they're going to say, look, unemployment went up or whatever. But, you know, they're going to see an unemployment print or something and they're going to say, look, unemployment went up or whatever. But, you know, that that is something that we're
already pricing in today, I would say. So I'm just being very open, right? Like you might hear
me literally tomorrow or the next week or something. If something does change, then I might,
you know, change my positioning accordingly. I think that this has been
absolutely a trader's market. And I think it's, you know, perfectly okay to absorb as much
information as you can. And it's okay to flip flop. And I plan to flip flop. That is literally
the theme for me this year is to survive by any means necessary, which means that I am, you know,
it's not like 2024 where I was just levered long the entire year, uh, and just, you know,
handling the low volatility environment is a very high volatility environment. There's a lot of
news. There's a lot of potential bad news. So I'm very high alert. I'm not saying I'm coasting long
and I'm, you know, that's it. I'm bullish forever. I'm just, in this moment, you get a breath thrust
and it has marked bottoms in the past. I do take that pretty seriously. So for the meantime, I'm
being very openly to the bullish side. Unless, you know, we see some price action to determine
that, hey, maybe that is actually failing.
But again, getting that breath thrust today, and there's never been a scenario where stocks are
down 6 and 12 months ahead. I mean, that is for sure something to pay attention to.
But yeah, I mean, we stopped that gap below. Can we close it? Sure, I'm not going to optimize
two to 3% moves left and right.
That volatility will kill you.
You know, I would need something
to change my bullish bias
back to bearish or defensive at this point.
Appreciate you kicking us off, logical.
Mr. Big Beat, Stephen, how are you?
Great to have you on the space again.
What thoughts do you have around this market?
Oh, man, two weeks ago, I think I was listening to spaces and everybody was so bearish.
The world was going to end and meteorites were going to destroy the earth.
And those of us were very long.
I mean, I was very long from 77,200 on Bitcoin.
And today I'm smiling, you know, we're back in 94,000. Look, I said it a
couple of weeks ago, I said, take your charts and throw them out the door. Because they really don't
mean much right now. Because we're waiting on every tweet on every news article, Twitter sphere,
we're living on it right now. I get it. I mean, I'm Mr. Mr. Technical Analysis myself, but I get
it. But right now, we're still living in that world. And I said it a few weeks ago that, look, it was so negative in the world that any good news coming out was going to push the markets right back up. we are and you know we're back above 40 000 on the dow again netflix which i called out on this show
several times um and is now back to an all-time high um why because there was this thesis going
on out there that that we're going to have these trade wars and things are not going to go well
um look cooler heads prevailed in the white house i said that i specifically said that that that
when cooler heads prevailed in the white house when the that i specifically said that that that when cooler heads
prevailed in the white house when the scott besinza the world or the secretary of the treasury
comes back out to the way way way elon chill the hell out go away now he's going away guess what
the markets are going back up you know um let's look at three things that i that i've been looking
at quite heavily the first thing that we're looking at quite heavily has been the gold market
and the gold market has pretty much told you exactly what's going on right that money is coming out of
the u.s bond market and has been moving money straight into in right into the gold market almost
sovereign wealth funds have been buying gold at the biggest clips in history right they're just
piling a gold away as fast they can then all of a sudden there's been this change in the administration
well wait a minute maybe they don't need to buy so much gold uh you know 3500 might have been the
top i think it is i think the gold is and i think silver will will come back and catch up to the
gold silver ratio is that the different why does disparity in in like i think 50 years something
crazy but then you're now sitting at 4.3 looks like 30 like 309%, right? Expect the Fed to cut rates.
Anybody thinks the Fed isn't cutting rates,
they're just killing themselves.
I saw Barmak this morning talking about
how she wasn't sure yet or,
no, they're cutting rates.
They're going to cut rates.
The disparity, oh, Trump's going to fire Powell.
No, that's not going to happen.
The thing called the law.
So now all of a sudden that's changed tunes, right? All of a sudden the market seems to be back in normal.
Things are happy again. The key is right now at 466 and a quarter. Two weeks ago, you would have
thought that the world was ending, right? That people in sandwich boards walking down the streets
in New York near the FIDI going, oh god it's the world is in the end is near right
and that's when you start to think about the world in general right when you're when you're
looking at markets think about where you would put your money and we did right okay if the world's
going to end i'm going to be watching shows guess what's happened this week nintendo is out with it
with the new switch too they expected only four million in sales. Nintendo is in Japan and sold out in Japan.
They now have over 6 to 7 million orders. They didn't care about the tariffs. Nobody cared that
they could possibly be higher. Nobody cares, right? What we're saying here now is that you
looked at Apple. Apple said, okay, if we're going to have tariffs, we'll get ahead of this.
We'll bring all of our stock over.
600 pallets of iPhones came over to the United States alone.
Alone, right?
So if the world was ending, the third thing I want to talk about was oil.
If the world really was ending, we'd see $40 and $50 barrels of oil, and we're not.
It's $62.57, and OPEC's talking about dumping more oil.
So no, the world isn't ending uh now i think that i think logical is right um i think the volatility and the volume
is starting to slow up a little bit we're getting into that that time frame now so now you can put
your charts back on now you can talk about um verticals here i think if you want to look at it
from that perspective i think you know look on the the 200-day moving average is right in sight for the Qs. I think that's probably where we're
going to head to right now. And I think the administration has now turned back to one of
its most popular themes, and that's crypto. And I think Bitcoin, you saw the president talk about
the, I'm going to take them all out the dinner. They bought the Trump coin, right? The top 20
biggest owners of it, that thing jumped 80%,
right? So, you know, look, I think what we're looking at right now is the culmination of very
scared retail traders who got nervous in a market they shouldn't have. And the institutions took
advantage of that. Rarely is it the other way around where the retail takes advantage of
institutions. They did that during COVID. That's not going to happen again.
And I think that's why you're seeing a little more calmer heads coming back into it.
And right now, the tick is up 150.
I mean, it's been bouncing around between up 1,000 and down 1,000.
That's where I'm thinking we're at right now.
And so, look, sorry, I've been kind of busy lately.
I've been kind of making money because I've not been scared.
I've not been scared.
Money for me makes money. So I appreciate that. And also, I've been kind of busy lately. I've been kind of making money because I've not been scared. I've not been scared. Money for me makes money.
So I appreciate that.
And also, I love these guys.
Keep it up, man.
Keep up the good work here.
Yeah, great having you on again, Stephen.
I appreciate those thoughts.
We'll continue going around the panel.
I did notice on the monthly QQQ chart,
we briefly flipped green there for a moment. Still six days left. Of course, big bottom wick.
Some would call this potentially a big hammer candle, but obviously we'll have to see what
happens, what continues to play out. Still a lot of question marks around the market,
but I definitely wanted to call that out. And let's continue around here. Ariel,
great to have you up here on the space
again as well. What thoughts do you have around this market? Hey, guys, thanks for having me.
You know, well, really, the last few days, I think it's been it's been very positive. You know,
you've got names that feel like leadership quality, right? Something obviously like a Netflix,
not a small business, new all time highs today, effectively $1,100. That doesn't, in my opinion,
doesn't happen in a bad market. That happens in a market that is trying to bottom, where stocks,
if you just go just on technicals, lots of charts with double bottom bases, things like a Netflix,
things like Spotify, things like CrowdStrike. That looks very constructive to me.
Past few days, that has actually been one of the names that I bought.
Palantir is another name that I bought yesterday and acting incredibly well today.
Uber, another one. CrowdStrike, over 400, another one. And obviously, I can't catch them all,
right? It's like you've got TTWO is another one that's acting well.
Spotify is another one that's acting well.
So just from a stock perspective, things are acting and shaping up pretty well.
It'll be interesting to see what kind of continues to lead from this, right?
Obviously, a few weeks ago, we had gold absolutely ripping.
It came off the highs
quite nicely. But then, you know, some of these gold miners like NEM reports pretty good earnings.
No surprise why. Gold is much higher than it was last quarter. So, you know, I don't want to get
too negative here after the market has gone down 20%. I thought that the best shorts in the market were two and a half months
ago, right? When a name like NOW was failing on earnings, when a name like DEC was failing on
earnings, when a name like MU failed on earnings, et cetera. It's like that to me was a much easier
environment. Here we are, fast forward a quarter later, and, you know, names got washed out pretty
bad. So we're starting to see a little bit of follow through. I know Logic just mentioned the
breath thrust, and that's always good to see. Obviously, a bunch of stocks participating around
the market names breaking clean, you know, technical basis, consolidations, breaking back
over their 50 holding their 200s, double bottoms on the
weekly. Those are all very constructive from a technical perspective. And the market itself
was beaten up quite a bit. And for me, Bitcoin has always been something that I view kind of as
risk on, risk off. And really, Bitcoin did an awesome job holding its own while the market broke lower.
It couldn't really take out the March lows with the market.
And it just kind of held in there.
And then you can kind of see it was off to the races.
And even when gold took its little leg down, Bitcoin headed in the opposite direction.
So for me, even an asset class like Bitcoin, which I kind of view as, you know, risk on, risk off, a little extra liquidity in the market. Where do you put it? Bitcoin. And then again, just
individual stocks. And if Netflix is your leader, I don't see anything wrong with that. They're a
great company. I mean, they keep raising prices and I don't leave. So Spotify could do the exact
same thing and I won't leave. Grand Theft Auto is coming out soon.
And, you know, as a man in his mid 30s, I'll probably be buying that game.
So, you know, there are some positives to just kind of look at the market and say, you know, stocks are acting well.
And I'm really not going to argue with that.
You know, does does the market, you know, hit some supply on the way up?
Yeah, absolutely.
And, you know, it's not just going to be some V-shaped recovery on the way up, I don't think.
But if stocks continue to break key pivots, you know, get back above key moving averages
and then follow through from there, you know, build consolidations and get over clean necklines
and push and I can continue to
add on from one position to the next, to the next, to the next, and get my portfolio more exposed on
the long side, I'm happy to. So one of the things that I always talk about is using progressive
exposure to your advantage. You don't have to go from 0% exposure to 100% exposure in two days, right?
It could take two, three, four weeks, and that's totally fine if you believe that the
market has bottomed.
And I don't really keep any opinions on that personally.
That's just normally known in hindsight.
But if you believe that the market has bottomed and the stock that you buy gives you good
follow through from your buy point and you're not really fighting the trend of the market, because maybe the market has flipped its trend to, you
know, an upward trend, then, you know, you shouldn't really be fighting the market too much,
you should be getting a little bit more exposure into your stocks that are working and, and finding
new names that are working and, you know, stick to stocks and groups to stocks and groups that are in the top 40,
in the top third of the market. And they hung out up there for a reason. While the market was going
down, institutions either weren't selling them or they were accumulating them. And then when the
market was going up, they were going up more than their peers. So those are probably names to focus
on. There's a reason why a Palantir,
you know, while the market broke lower for three, four days, Palantir effectively went sideways
after its move off of the $60 level effectively. You know, it moved up quite a bit. And then while
the market went a little bit lower, Palantir went sideways. And then the market goes up for two days
and Palantir is effectively ripping for the last, you know, two and a half sessions.
So it's good to see.
I don't want to be too negative, like I said, on the market.
And we'll just take it kind of one day, one position at a time and, you know, see if we
can't get ourselves more and more exposed to the long side of the market.
And if the trend, you know, happens to change, we won't be fully exposed into the market
and we can manage risk on
our already green trades. And like I said, I bought Uber today as it was going back through
the 50. I bought CrowdStrike as it was breaking a little flat base over 400. Nothing totally
mind-blowing in terms of setups, fairly simplistic setups. And they're working, you're getting
follow-through. That's the most important part. So I don't want to argue with the market in that regard. And if it keeps working,
you know, that's amazing. And we'll keep finding stocks that we can get ourselves into over time.
And hopefully, you know, the worst is over. You know, we might get some nasty shakeouts along
the way. But, you know, even a name like Tesla, where you're like, those earnings kind of suck. Right. The market drove it higher. Now, it's a little choppy here.
Still, it's kind of lagging. It hasn't even been able to take out yesterday's highs,
but the earnings kind of suck. And, you know, if the market wants to take it higher,
despite the crappy earnings, you know, I think maybe the worst has possibly been priced into that name too. So I'll kind of keep an open mind here and just continue to scan the market, figure out where money's going, where money's leaving.
And if names are going to continue to trend higher, I will definitely see myself getting more and more involved as the days go on on the long side of the market.
Appreciate those thoughts, Ariel. Gary,
let's go over to you next and then we'll hit Wolfie. Yeah, Emp, I just mocked you. I saw your answer about you getting bullish. I've been bullish for a while. I will tell you one of my
rules is when a stock hits a new all-time high, you trim it. And so last week before earnings,
I trimmed Netflix at about, I think, 980. I trimmed half my position. It was 120% gain.
I am perfectly happy with trimming half of it because I still have half of it to enjoy the
rally today, all-time highs. I think it's important at times like this, a stock like that in a market where you could get
taken down by a tweet. And I am just like the previous speaker. There is no freaking way I'm
getting rid of my Netflix with Seinfeld on there. I am watching that one. And by the way, from a
video game perspective, I'm an EA sports guy. So I still love my Microsoft Xbox and the Game Pass
and stuff like that. So I own that one. But I think it's important for long-term investors to know that this is part of the deal. You're
going to be taken down by a tweet. I don't think anybody else in this space is part of the
administration's signal tweets. I got a strange call this morning that somebody wanted to negotiate
with China and it was my phone that was ringing. I'm not sure exactly what that was with the administration,
but again, they're kind of tipping their hat that maybe things are moving forward.
I don't put it past them to actually rip the rug out of this rally, though.
I don't think we're going to all-time highs.
I don't think we're going to wind up all of a sudden back.
I think you're going to see a summer dip, 90 days,
but it's times like this where you pick your winners and you just stick with them.
I saw a guy who bought Tesla the other day at $13 way back when, I think it was around 2017,
2018. And he just sold his entire position, a $10,000 investment that turned into $200,000. Well, you could look
at that and say, yeah, it was great that $10,000 turned into $200,000. He could have sold it for
$400,000 like three months ago, four months ago. So I'd look at it like, hey, the $10,000 turned
into $200,000. But I'm sure there's some people on here who might say, yeah, but he could have sold it. I can't optimize that way. I try and just manage my portfolio with
good names, with good products, with good profits and good management. I wound up picking up a
little more Amazon today. I don't want to buy Google just because the earnings are a little
bit messed up, but that one is as cheap as it's ever been.
So again, I'm big into the mag seven. My portfolio's down. Don't at me or don't follow me because you may lose more money than you're willing to. But I think Chris Camillo put it best
on Austin Hankowitz's podcast, the Rich Habits podcast. He said, listen, I've lost 50% of my
portfolio. I've lost millions of dollars. I'm% of my portfolio. I've lost millions of dollars.
I'm in the same boat. I have lost millions of dollars since the middle of March. I run a new
strategy in Trendspider that I call the Liberation Day strategy, which is based on a weekly trend.
I tested it back during the lost decade. I tested it back during 2008. I tested it back during COVID.
I tested it back during 2008. I tested it back during COVID. And I tested it back during the
Fed rate hikes in 2022. It works out. Hasn't given me a trigger to get back in,
but I'm slowly starting to get back in. I don't think this is a market that is completely broken.
I don't think that we see a recession, but I think it was logical that said it great.
recession, but I think it was logical that said it great. Hey, typically stocks, they bottom out
way before the earnings stuff gets really, really nasty. So I think we're in that position. And I
think for long-term guys, I'm not a guy who does day trading. And Scott Redler made fun of me
because I don't need to pay anybody in April or anything like that. My reality is I'm just a long-term investor who
retired at the age of 48 from a very modest salary and very good stock picking over the years.
And you want to know how I picked it? Apple came out with the iPhone. You know what happened? It
was a computer company that basically became a phone company. And everybody said, there's no way
this is going to work because everybody wants a physical keyboard on BlackBerry. Look at where that went. Google, you invested in 2000 because
they had the Chrome browser, they had Gmail and everybody was, you know, there was all the search
revenue. It was the leading search one. Microsoft, you started buying because everybody had a
Microsoft PC and they had got the Xbox. And there was, there's just
always been signs when Netflix went from a DVD subscription to online streaming, everybody said,
there's no way it's going to work. When they started spending millions on, on, on, uh, at
their actual content, everybody said it wouldn't work. You have to go in and you have to pick your
winners because you, you may not be right 10 out of 10
times, but it's that one out of 10 where you're right on and you buy and hold it and you don't
get out too soon. Like the guy who just turned $10,000 into $200,000. Again, you can call him
a fool for not selling at 400, but I think that's a pretty good return.
for not selling at 400, but I think that's a pretty good return.
Yeah, great thoughts, Gary.
It was funny, as you were saying that, I was actually going through trimming some long positions
that I mentioned to you.
I bought back at the beginning of this month down there on the low.
I was going through and, hey, big up day, big nice move here.
Going ahead, taking some profit in because I'm neutral overall.
I still think we need a lot more information on this market, but I just see the upside risk.
That's my current opinion.
You didn't get the negotiation call from the U.S. to China?
Well, you know, China said that they hadn't met with trump and trump said we met this morning
like i don't know i don't know who to believe at this point i think the market's getting exhausted
by this news that that's really my main thought there uh wolfie how was uh how was your day in
the market hi hi um you know top five no i'm just kidding just kidding. So, yeah, it was all right. I was on here on Monday and the sky was falling. And, you know, I said just from a technical perspective, you could take shots on certain stocks. I gave the ones that I was looking at. I said, you know, meta, pressing right up against those recent lows. You want to take a shot against them. It's a good setup.
and right up against those recent lows you want to take a shot against them it's good setup um
amazon 165 i gave a couple of the retailers said the retail was leading took a couple of shots so
since then i've pretty much just kind of been riding got fortunate with uh amazon meta um took
some shots you know in the last couple of you know weeks with some names like i mentioned tempest
you know, weeks with some names, like I mentioned Tempest, told you guys that I'm big on
idiosyncratic stuff. So things that are not big enough to really move the needle on the index side,
and then they're just like have their own kind of stories. Service Titan was one that I mentioned
on an all time high breakout post IPO. It's up, I think 15% since 15 cents you know it's really good to talk about the winners um
i want to just kind of like circle back though we referenced marty zwig at the beginning and
for those of you that don't know he's in book called market wizards books written by uh
uh jack schwagger jack d schwagger uh good book you know a lot of times people look for books to Jack Schwager, Jack D. Schwager. Good book.
You know, a lot of times people look for books to read on markets.
Good book.
But I think it's important.
We're going to start quoting people like this to know some of their philosophies. So one of the philosophies Marty has, he's a really good investor historically, is that he doesn't buy stocks with a P.E. above 43.
buy stocks with a PE above 43.
So if we look at some of our favorite names,
you know, a lot of us on here, myself included,
we don't buy stocks with PE below 43.
I can't tell you what Ballantier's PE is,
but it's probably, you know, pretty high.
Anyways, outside of that, low debt to equity,
positive relative price.
And then he focuses on stuff that's driven by sales growth,
not cost cutting, and where you have multiple earnings growth potential over the course of
years. So I say all of that because, you know, it's really good to talk about things that are
going well when they're going well. And, you know, Gary, this is, you know, I'm not trying
to be your B bff but this is
second time to give you props um first it was for netflix and now i think i think he was the only one
that actively said he doesn't think that the lows are in and i'm in that camp which is why i'm saying
this good no i i listen i i just want to say thank you you're yeah no problem hey and and wolfie too
i've got a blue check mark now i'm nice i used to be the only one up here without a blue check mark
you guys bullied me into it so uh if i didn't get one without paying for it i wouldn't have one so
there's there's that i'm right there with you. No, I'm saying this because it's really good to, you know, nothing like price to dictate sentiment.
And I, you know, I think right now we have this tradable range. We have Google on deck so they could come out and say they're cutting CapEx and boom, party's over, guys. over guys right so it's really i think it's really important to kind of like if if you've
got something from a thesis standpoint and the data hasn't really changed yet
um to really just kind of keep your head on a swivel i've i've been up here pretty much the
entire year i think it's going to be a structurally challenged year i think uh we've got some
structural issues we have a debt problem coming up. We have
a 10-year yield that's still problematic. Trump wishy-washy, one day he's going to fire Powell,
next day he can't fire Powell, one day he better cut, next day he's going to let the Fed be
autonomous. And I think that that's the stuff that we're going to see for the bulk of the year.
And I think when you have these pockets where things aren't that like things have gotten so bad, they're good.
He's going to shut up. And when things are not so bad, they're good.
He's going to get exhausting. And so, you know, I think we have a little bit of a window to the upside.
I personally, unless we completely flip and, you know, the China folds and people line up and they want to make huge deals and the Fed's going to cut and QE.
I don't think that the lows are in for the year.
I'm just saying that now because we're seeing things up two and a half percent almost on the Qs and Dow's up one percent and the S&P's up 1.75.
So that said, I don't think the theme really changes.
I think that it's a stock picker's market.
I think you're going to have these, like I've said all year, for me, it's a barbell year.
On one side, you've got your value.
You've got your international exposure.
You've got your cyclical trade.
On the other side, you're going to have your flavor of the week,
your AI story or whatever, right? And so I think right now, the barbell is going to tip towards
that momentum trade, that AI trade, that thematic trade, that risk on trade. And we probably have
a window. I don't know how long the window is going to be. It could be a month, could be two.
And then from that point um i think
our structural problems will probably creep back up um i think we have like you know international
coming into the like international money coming to the u.s kind of slow i think we have the harvard
thing keep that on your on the on your your plate this uh trump harvard thing if if harvard and i'm just gonna give you a high
level here if harvard gets reorganized or there's a threat of reorganization from a non-profit to
a taxable entity they have a lot of a lot of um a lot of stocks and a lot of private investments
that they're probably going to liquidate some of,
which is net negative markets.
Like, for example, their biggest holding is Meta.
I'm just throwing it out there.
It's not something that's happening right this second,
but it's something I think that's important to stay consistent with
when you see green on your screen.
That said, not be embarrassed, not telling you to sell everything.
I think, like I said said we have google on deck if they can kind of uh kick the can on some of the bad stuff
that might be in the in the quarter and investors can overlook it i think we have a little bit of
a window especially the last month or two the weekend uh leading into the weekend we've always said things like markets don't bottom on a
friday markets don't do this on cool if if we have a situation where it's green today and google's not
that bad and earnings aren't that bad in the next day and we run into the weekend and it's not bad
you're they're not gonna they're minus a tape bomb from a tweet or something like that, generally speaking, markets don't reverse those on a Friday as well.
So those types of trends work both ways.
When it's really bad, they don't bottom on a Friday.
When it's going good, they don't turn around on a Friday either.
Like if you're up the last couple of days, you're not going to sell going into the weekend uh like materially sell you might trim some like a lot of people said
you're not going to materially sell going into the weekend so i think um all that being aside
uh just find your fiber find your setups that you that you like people mentioned
pound tier that's a good that's a good uh example stock behaved well, better than some of its peers, and it rallied more aggressively than some of its peers.
Take a look at Tesla.
We had a conversation on Tesla where I said in the next couple of quarters, they're going to have to have a show-me quarter.
But until then, they're rallying on good news, so don't get in front of it.
Stock's up since earnings.
And then outside of that, if you've had favorite names, again, I've mentioned a couple of them.
If you've had favorite names and they're on sale right now and you believe in the story, you've got a floor to trade against.
Find the recent low that that stock was at.
That's your floor.
If you're comfortable holding it against that floor, figure out what your share size is or your option size is or whatever,
and you can take your shot.
That's pretty much where it's at.
Outside of that, stocks that are performing really well, the breakout, example, Netflix,
those are your momentum names. So until we get that shift back to where things they've gotten too good to be true that's kind of like the setup
and that's kind of like the the mantra and the last thing that i'll that i'll i'll kind of
mention here is pay attention to the vix the vix on the way up uh the vix on the way down excuse
me signal things pretty early a couple things pay attention to the vix on the on the way down
it signaled a couple of things.
Like there was one day where we were down materially, VIX was not up.
That was like a tell, like, OK, maybe there's a little bit of seller's exhaustion.
The same is going to be true the other way.
If we have a day where we're up like a percent and a half and VIX is green and then you follow up the next day where we're not up that much and the VIX is green again.
That's kind of like your tell where like, you know, some of the buying might be exhaustive. Gold is the other one.
And then people last week were talking about Bitcoin as a decouple. The thing that Bitcoin
did was it outperformed risk assets to the downside, like around a relative basis. Like it
didn't go down as aggressively as some of these other names, which kind of like gave it a little bit of a floor, but I don't
think it decoupled.
I think it just, it broke out before the risk assets broke out.
So it performed better, but it was kind of like your tell when like there was a, there
was a day, I think it was Monday, Bitcoin was up and the rest of the market was down
basically.
And then the last one is gold.
So gold basically peaked.
I think it was Monday.
And then since then it's been, someone mentioned gold, silver, that spread's got to close.
I'll leave that to you guys.
But gold kind of peaked before things kind of turned.
And there will be a moment where gold kind of bottoms probably before
things turn as well.
And so that's pretty much it for me.
I'll give you one name though.
I'll give you one name that I'm looking at this and it's not loved, not loved industry,
not loved whatever.
Start taking a look at NBIS.
I'll give you two.
NBIS and there's another one I mentioned earlier in the week, SDGR, Schrodinger.
Schrodinger on the back of the FDA, you know, repurposing of AI instead of having to have animal trials.
And then NBIS for some kind of international exposure on the AI trade came back down basically to where it found a floor in 2024.
And then now kind of looks good to the 50-day.
So those are the two names.
Small names, but two small names I'm watching.
Appreciate that, Wolfie.
Great breakdown there.
You mentioned earnings.
We do have earnings this afternoon. Google, of course of course most people know that we're expecting those numbers around
403 Intel also reporting we should get those numbers right after the bell 401
T-Mobile some other names as well. I don't know if anybody else is watching those other names, but I am curious
What people are thinking but first I do want to get Stock Talk in.
Stock Talk.
Can I make one comment around the Google thing real quick?
Just real quick. Absolutely.
If you're in any of the ETFs, the index ETFs,
SPY, QQQ, whatever,
those trade until 415.
So they're going to give like some kind of,
you know, arbitrage for lack of a better word,
where you might get the Google print
before that 415 level and it'll give you an opportunity to make a decision
yeah good tip there for sure uh if you're trading anything more than zero days usually you can trade
up to 15 minutes after the bell on most brokers on spy qqq options uh stock talk what's going on what's going on what's up
doing good doing good yeah we got some greens today some follow-through on uh after what was
some pretty negative headlines both yesterday afternoon and this morning
you know i think the term news failure is a phrase that a lot of people have used before.
I think we even used it in the conversation a couple of weeks ago, but
I would characterize today as news failure, um, in a good way, not a bad way, but you know,
I, the markets eventually, when it comes to any kind of story,
in this case, it being tariffs, but, you know, in the past, it's been things like jobs data
or inflation data or any number of things. When there's a narrative in the market
and you have information related to that narrative, it tends to be really, really reactive early on. And then over time, that correlation starts to weaken. And eventually you get a news failure day. And
to the upside, that means you get good news and the markets don't go up. And to the downside, it means you get bad news and markets don't go down.
And I think today was an example of the latter, where we had some negative headlines from China this morning,
negative headlines from Trump yesterday afternoon in terms of walking back the walk back.
And then we got some positive news today about the India deal maybe being close, but markets seem to just turn around and rally this morning out of exhaustion, which is the it, but I think that's a positive technical sign.
And then we got some positive news today about the India deal maybe being close.
Along with the fact that today it looks, I mean, I don't want to say barring anything crazy. I mean, today we will recapture the 21 EMA, which we were talking about yesterday as a potential point of failure.
So we're actually recapturing that today.
So we're actually recapturing that today.
Looks very different from the action that we saw on March 25th when we briefly recaptured the 21 EMA and forfeited it.
In this instance, we captured above an intraday, failed, and then recaptured it on the second session.
So I like that action better.
As far as technical reconstruction goes, we still have some work to do.
We're sitting above the 20 day, but we need to get back into and above that 200.
Once we get above the 200 day and confirm that breakout, that's when I'll be really bullish.
The reason for that is pretty simple. If you go back through bear market rallies of the past, or you go back through corrections in the market of the past, you don't have to go back too far. You can just go back to 2022.
What you'll find is that the counter trend rallies tend to rally into the 200-day moving average, get softly rejected there, and then resume their downtrend. That's been a pretty common characteristic of a lot of
bear markets. You go look at the last three or four, you'll see that to be pretty common
characteristics. So from a technical perspective, I would like to see us retake the 200-day moving
average. Now, it's not as far off as it was a couple of weeks ago, right? It's sitting up at
570. We're sitting at 546.
The incremental positive sign that I would like to see,
which we will get unless something bad happens, is I'd like to see this monthly candle close kind of where we are,
above this 545, 545 spot.
Even better would be to close the monthly candle above the 562 spot.
But I know that's a lot to ask because that's another $16 room to the upside.
But technical reconstruction has started is what I'll say.
And that's a good thing.
The weekly still looks a little dangerous.
We have action pushing into the 55 EMA on the weekly.
I'd like to see that resolved.
So I'd like to see us push over 550.
I'm referring to SPY here, by the way, for people who are confused about the numbers.
I'm referring to SPY.
But you look at the 55 EMA on the weekly, you see some soft rejections there.
So I'd like to see that retaken as well.
But the daily chart is starting to look better
that we can that that concession we can make and I think a couple more days of action like this
you don't even really need big upside days you need sort of these building days you could be
half a percent point six percent that doesn't get that gets the job done you just need to build the
charts back up so charts are starting to look better.
And I would say today's probably the first day where you see some actually positive construction
on the upside.
Most of the other green days we've seen have either led to massive intraday fades or big
selling on the next day, right?
For those that remember that 11% day up, we had a 7% day down after.
And for those that remember the last big jump we had,
we had a big intraday reversal,
which gave up most of that move.
So now we've seen this move to the upside.
Let's get some follow through, right?
That'll be your character change.
If you see positive action into tomorrow,
into the end of the week,
that's a really, really good technical sign in my view.
So today's action was encouraging.
You know, I mentioned two days ago
that I thought Trump's comments on China
were a little softer and that was making me bullish.
Then I mentioned yesterday that Besant's comments
made me a little cautious again.
Putting the comments and the narrative aside
from purely technical standpoint,
I do think today's action was encouraging.
That being said, I didn't go out there and
deploy cash aggressively.
You know, I have a...
Did he cut for anybody?
Okay. Yeah, I think he just got...
Can you hear me? There he is.
Okay, sorry. Where did I cut off?
The basket of and then cut off
yeah yeah logical saying this but as well but um i run a book i don't like
and i'm not knocking traders who are like this but you know i'm not a trader who's like all cash
at the end of the day right and so during like these, I have to protect my long positions.
And that's what I've been doing
during this correction, using hedges.
And I still own those baskets of positions, right?
So I still own my long positions,
which on this rebound, I've been doing very well.
You know, Robinhood is one of my largest positions
and it's just been an absolute monster on this rebound.
Amazon's doing well on the rebound. And so those stocks that I own, I give me exposure to long
side. So I don't have to flip my bias when it comes to my cash position. I have a little bit
more flexibility in terms of the timing of doing so, because I have have all these allocations to the long side already, right? Names like Kratos, Embraer, Amazon, Tesla, Robinhood, you know, CXW, Geo, which had a nice
day today, Centris Energy. I own all these names. So, you know, when the market's going up, I can
benefit from that. And until I see that 200-day reclaimed, I probably won't be very, very aggressive in terms of looking for new opportunities.
I'm the type of guy that prefers not to bottom fish,
but to buy strong charts that are uptrending
and ride those uptrends.
That's the way I like to trade.
That's the way I like to invest also.
So everyone's different.
I know there's people out there that like to catch bottoms,
and some people who have tried to do that
in the last couple of weeks
have probably done very well. If you bought a ago or so uh on some of your favorite individual names
you probably did really well on that but that's not my ammo my ammo is operating in an environment
of strength and doing it with very very large size and so uh i'm waiting for conditions to get
back into the oh Oh, sorry.
I got an amber alert there.
As far as the individual catalyst goes, another pretty quiet day
on the street.
Let me go pull my notes up here.
There wasn't a ton. I thought
the G Vernova note from
JPMorgan was really nice,
but that came out yesterday, intraday.
It came out around 2 p.m. I think that stock did well
today. Let's go pull it up..m. I think that stock did well today.
Let's go pull it up.
Yeah, I mean, that stock was up about 7.5% today.
It's a $100 billion stock, so 7.5% is a big move. But G.E. Vernova, J.P. Morgan raised their price target to 4.30 yesterday, put it in as a focus list pick.
I thought they made a good argument. A lot of these power producers that were tied to the data center theme came down a lot when the data center stock started selling off.
I thought they made a good argument.
And JP Morgan made an argument in this note yesterday that just one quarter of current revenue and just one third of slot reservations are with data customers for GVernova, and they're seeing larger growth in
their non-data center related book. So JP Morgan basically making the argument last night, this is
not just a data center play and that it's a power producer that's growing meaningfully on its own.
And so they think the capital return is compelling and they put a $430 price target on it
yesterday afternoon. That stock, like I said, did very, very well today.
There were a handful of other mid-caps that I thought were interesting.
There was a note on Solano Therapeutics, SLNO, from Piper Sandler
that I thought was interesting.
That stock did okay today, about a percent and a half, 1.75%.
But I did think it was interesting.
They put 145 target on it,
raised from 93.
A chart looked constructive as of this morning,
looked like it could hold up.
Has a little bit of air from the 20 moving average, so you'd like to see it come back down into the 20 moving average
if you were going to take a stop at a name like that.
Sorry, take a stab at a name like that.
But Solano Therapeutics SLNO from Piper Sandler this morning at a 14 like that but solano therapeutics slno from piper sandler
this morning at a 145 target i thought that was interesting you also had popular ticker bpop from
keith briette they said they couldn't have asked for a better quarter they put a 125 target on it
this morning that stock also performed modestly today these aren't super sexy names it was up
about a percent and a half but these are names that could perform in the coming weeks and months
because those are the type of notes that were put out.
These aren't buy now sort of notes.
They're kind of, hey, we think there's value here sort of notes.
So, yeah, they're unpopular at Keith Briette.
And then there was one more that I thought was interesting.
Hold on.
Oh, yeah. popular at kief briette and then there was one more that thought was interesting hold on oh yeah there's a barclays initiation on cytokinetics cytk uh don't know how that name did today either go pull it up here
yeah not bad up six did them a name up six percent today on that report um so that didn't name did
pretty well also and then you had a lincoln educational services group which i actually
thought the note on this was interesting it was from northland which i'm not a big fan of northland
stuff but northland made a really interesting argument about this ticker, that they see this as a great stock for this sort of new age of the American workforce that may be ushered in from tariffs.
Hold on, let me go pull up my summary of the note here.
Let's see.
Okay, it doesn't want to pull up.
Give me a second here.
Why does it keep auto-correcting?
If you click faster, it usually makes your computer look better.
Okay, there you go.
I got it.
Yeah, so this is what they said.
Northland said,
LINC provides career-oriented education,
which we think is very important for the turn in American offering programs
for skilled trades, automotive technology, and healthcare IT services.
We believe LINC is well-positioned in the educational vertical,
especially as America's workplace priorities
shift. They benefit from favorable macro trends like rising demand for skilled trades domestically,
including healthcare professionals and a growing aversion to costly four-year degrees. We also see
room for significant multiple expansion as LINC executes on its growth strategy, which has been
picking up over the prior three quarters. I think the niche there is interesting. And I think it's an interesting
dynamic with a tariff play in the background. So that's going to be a name I watch. I didn't
buy it today. It was sort of flat today. Yeah, it traded completely flat today, actually. But
I'm going to look more into that name this week, maybe even this weekend and and maybe take a stab at it it's a small cap name
550 million market cap but the chart looks nice it's been showed a tremendous amount of relative
strength in this environment and i think if we can push through here you kind of have this
triple top test going on here uh if you zoom out to october on this chart pushing into this
20 area i think over 20 this thing could get interesting, both technically and fundamentally.
So I'll do some more work on it.
I didn't get a chance to pull into it.
But I did think that one was probably the most interesting note I saw this morning was on Lincoln Financial from, sorry, on Lincoln Educational Services from Northland.
I thought that was really interesting.
And there have been some educational stocks that have been performing really, really well in this environment. There
have been a handful that we've traded as well the last couple of weeks. So, you know, ATGE was one
yesterday that worked really well. I don't know if it continued today, but they had a Jeffrey's
note. They're also in the career education category, which is sort of a niche category
that a lot of people look up.
No, it's flat today, but it was up nicely. I don't know if it was yesterday or the day before
on a Jeffries report. So yeah, I think that's sort of an interesting industry,
this sort of specialty career education, vocational education industry, where,
you know, if we want to bring manufacturing back to this country, that's certainly going to be an industry that booms. And I think it's been frankly
overlooked. I overlooked it. That wasn't, that wasn't one of the beneficiaries I thought of
when I was thinking of tariff beneficiaries. So yeah, interesting category to watch, I think,
but yeah, it's pretty much all my comments for today. I wish there was more out of the street
this week. I know my, I usually have a lot more to give you guys off of
what the street was talking about, but the street
was kind of lame this week.
So yeah,
that's
my rant for today.
Pretty solid rant.
We will get some of these earning numbers here in just
a few moments, about three minutes to the close.
Options Mike has joined us up here.
Do you have a bleeding kid in your car that slowed you down today or no no no i didn't i don't think i was
supposed to be on today so i'll just jump on real quick and uh you know you're always just
i appreciate it um we had monday we looked like that right we gapped up on tuesday we gapped up
yesterday even though the candle inter-day action sucked, we held the gap.
And today you get this big move.
And we're right at the breakout level on the SPY.
And the Qs are touching that two Wednesdays go candle here.
And while we're still in a bear market and we can still have problems here, and I have to run in about two minutes, so I'm keeping this quick.
You know, we definitely are looking short
term bullish for the first time in a while and you notice the White House was quiet today. I mean
we heard very little on tariffs and I think that was just part of what helps. When the White House
is quiet the market wants to rally. It's just done with this non-stop chatter. Come to us when you
have a deal. Come to us and give us tell us there's a deal and here it is and what it is. Until then, just shut up and let us do our thing. That said, Google tonight
is going to be a market mover. Intel is going to be Intel, but Google here,
if their data center revenue is off, misses badly and their advertising revenue is down,
the market could undo a lot of this tomorrow real quick um so just a couple quick thoughts there as we go into the close here and i know
you guys are going to cover earnings and i got to get back to my room and walk them through it
appreciate you sneaking in options mike i echo I echo what StocksFox said there.
You're always welcome.
We would love to have you on stage each and every day if you are available.
We are a minute away here from the final bell.
Looks like we're going to close up very nicely.
Trend days typically close at the highs.
We just slightly made a new high on both DQQ and Spy. Coming in here to the close.
We do have Google's making a new high right now.
And Intel, oh, it's right there.
As we get ready for these numbers, we'll see what happens.
As far as news stories go, to Options Mike's point,
Options Mike's point, that was too many plurals there.
It was quiet.
I did watch Trump with the camera, which leader it was from Norway.
I saw that in the Oval Office.
Very quiet.
A lot of talk around this.
It was actually positive around Russia and Ukraine having maybe a deal over there.
But yeah, I don't think I heard tariffs really mentioned one time.
The only thing I heard was that mention earlier of...
Hopefully someone told him to stop talking about it.
Maybe, right?
Because even he met with China this morning or they met with China.
Somebody met with China this morning was the only thing I really even heard
on the tariff front the entire day. Yeah, I think the White House probably panicked when China said this morning was the only thing I really even heard on the tariff front the entire day.
Yeah, I think the White House probably panicked when China said this morning that they hadn't talked to them
because Trump implied that yesterday.
And so I think the White House probably panicked and said, okay, we've got to get on the phone with them.
Yeah, I would not doubt it one bit.
All right, I've got the charts pulled up here,
waiting for the numbers.
We'll see what we get.
We need fireworks here.
Apple hardware chief John Ternus
will now oversee the robot project.
Apple has been making changes in a bid
to catch up to the ai industry where's evan when you need him
side note evan is getting his phone fixed right now isn't it supposed to be a tabletop robot
what they said i can't remember they said it like two or three different times. They said like a tabletop household robot, right?
That's what I thought.
Yeah, I heard that a couple times.
I heard a home robot was kind of the main term that they used,
but I did hear a tabletop.
That was the description of one of the news reports from a few months back.
Intel originally moving down,
it's bouncing back up a little bit.
Let me see if I can get these numbers.
It looks like loss of 19 cents for Intel.
It was a loss of 22 on Gap.
So they beat on Gap.
Oh, Google just popped hard
$2.81 for Google
That's 215 that's a beat
Yeah Intel 13 202 I'm sorry yes verse one cents estimated revenue 12.7 verse 12.3 gross margin 39.2
Q2 EPS seen at zero cents
Revenue guide well below estimates 11.2 to 12.4
um unveils cost cutting plan to streamline operations uh announces cut to capex to 18 billion
um says they see macro uncertainty ahead uh net loss is 800 million for the quarter
so not a great quarter for intel um intra quarter
was fine the guide they're not great yeah the great the guide's not good the adjusted eps 13
versus one cent uh they did beat on the revenue slightly google beat huge on eps 281 google's up
five and a half six percent now yeah big EPS be for
Google revenues also a beat by about a billion ninety point two billion verse
eighty nine point one five billion cloud revenue light miss on cloud revenue, I should say, 12.26 billion versus 12.32.
Ad revenue actually did beat.
Wow. As long as they don't say anything
about CapEx
reduction in a major way
in the call, they could
sweep a lot of this under tariffs.
Take a look at all of the other
pin plays, basically, like meta,
just all these ad adjacent plays, some of these other mag names going as well.
And again, you have until 4.15, so 12 minutes to make a decision.
Yeah, and we did pop here, by the way, across the market.
across the market, obviously Google heavily weighted in most indices.
Obviously, Google heavily weighted in most indices.
168 on Google right now, 5.5% up from the close.
Yeah, this is going to, I think, reinvigorate some enthusiasm
in the Meg 7 names where it should.
I am very glad I closed my shorts today.
There you go.
I figured.
And I'm very glad to see that Netflix killed it the other last week,
and Google's killing it today,
which means that a lot of these ad names that are down 50%, 60% in the
Smith cap space, they should see a nice rally, I think.
Yeah, those ad tech names probably benefit from that.
We're going through this report.
Yeah, all good from Google.
There's anything bad in here.
Intel's report, not good.
Google's report, good.
Do we have any other big names here after hours?
T-Mobile is the only other large name.
I don't know if anybody trades Gilead.
That one came out.
Oh, yeah, Gilead, yeah.
I saw that, too.
Gilead did lower their guidance.
I'm digging into these Google numbers.
That ad part is sticking out to me though yeah the ad revenue still beat even with so much concerns i mean logical talked about that multiple times on here several of you have talked about
that being the first thing to get cut 70 billion dollar buyback did we mention that
buyback up to 70 billion we did price in a lot and also we haven't really seen the hit of
tariffs in q1 so we'll have to see i also think that google meta are still going to be more
resilient than other ad tech players too because people are gonna less likely to cut a google That EPS beats massive.
Do we have a Google guide or are they going to do that on the call? Google Gemini's monthly active users. This is an old one.
I literally refuse to refer to Google as alphabet yeah when the guy said alphabet it almost threw me off when I was just
referred it as Google same thing with meta I refer to his Facebook like what
the hell are we talking about meta they didn't even the only reason I'll say
meta is because at least that's the ticker I guess I guess they're gonna
change their name again
because they didn't even do the Metaverse thing?
They should.
I don't know.
Intel is down 6% now.
It's $20.
Intel is going below $20?
Wow.
Imagine being an Intel shareholder.
That's got to be a brutal journey.
Hey, guys.
I'm just...
I got these numbers very late.
They just posted it in the back, so I was searching for it.
So big thing in Google is operating margin is up.
So year over year, same quarter, up 2%.
So 200 bps, that's a lot.
Let's see.
Cloud is solid, but they're all like,
I mean, the revenue numbers are all meet,
not really beat.
$70 billion buyback for Google as well yeah I'm
seeing a 5% increase in the dividend to quarterly of 21 cents
yeah I mean we were talking a lot about like mag seven names prior to this
correction and you know I'm I know we had a lot of different discussions about
it but I made the argument that when the markets do resume strength, these will be the leaders again.
And I'm not saying this Google report is a testament to that, but I think this Google report is a testament to the fact that when you have hundreds of billions of dollars in disposable capital, you can do things that the smaller companies
can't do to weather the storm.
And you could also do things to reinstate confidence in your stock that smaller companies
cannot afford to do.
So, you know, not only do they have a nice EPS beat here, but they have a $70 billion
beat here, but they have a $70 billion share buyback. That kind of capital power is a huge
share buyback.
advantage in environments like this. When you look at a $10 billion company and you say, let's say
it's had a 40% drawdown this year from the highs, that $10 billion company is now a $6 billion company, and that fundamentally changes the way that company operates.
A $10 billion company is significantly different than a $6 billion company in terms of its ability to raise capital, its ability to hold a workforce, etc., etc., etc.
It's different when you talk about these behemoths that are multi-trillion dollar companies because, yeah, have they shaved off a couple hundred billion dollars in market capitalizations, in some cases nearly a trillion
dollars in market capitalization from the highs? Yes, but they still have an enormous amount of
capital power. And it's hard for me to imagine a world where the markets get bullish again and
those will become the leaders all over again. So, you know, if the bottom was a weekish ago and these last couple of green sessions have been our first early attempts to build out of that bottom,
on the other side of it, I expect your leaders to be the same leaders that they were in the previous markets.
I don't think that's going to change.
I think your mag seven names, your popular tech names, your Robin Hoods,
your ASTSs, you know, these these stocks that had enormous years last year and showed relative
strength on the correction. Those are going to be your leaders in that category. And the stocks that
have led for the last 20 years, I think, will continue to lead in that environment. Now,
this is assuming that was the bottom. You know, obviously, if we pull back up into the 200-day, get rejected and head lower,
then, you know, those names will go down with the rest of the market.
But in an upside scenario, you know, I lean into the idea that the leaders will be the leaders again.
It's part of the reason why I never sell my Meg7 stocks, no matter what happens in the market.
It's part of the reason why I never sell my Meg7 stocks, no matter what happens in the market.
And it's also part of the reason why I've held all three of my biggest positions in those stocks through this correction,
even though they've taken some pretty brutal drawdowns.
Robinhood, for example, has recovered pretty amazingly off the lows.
It's almost back to being a $50 stock now.
It was a $30 stock a couple of weeks ago.
So, yeah, I think the leaders will continue to lead is the point I'm making.
And I think Google's report is an incremental drop in that bucket to say that these Mag7 names have more flexibility and more ability to navigate difficult environments than anyone else does.
What's up, Hamid?
What's up, guys?
What are you watching?
Are you checking into these Google numbers?
I haven't sat down yet.
I just had a meeting,
and I'm actually not caught up.
I'm not sure how Google did.
So I just figured I'd come in here, start listening,
and then start diving into the numbers.
Big EPS beat and $70 billion share buyback.
So a couple of things, Stock Talk, I want to add to what you said is they're also going to separate from smaller companies by adding, keeping
on hard on CapEx.
So they're going to be able to, you know, increase their lead even more because other
companies will be forced to cut it if they're not able to keep up.
The other thing is, you know, you and I have talked about this and I mentioned this multiple times.
Google is one of the few companies that did not do much of staff cutting in the last cycle.
And they were peak employment, I think only a quarter ago, they hit their peak.
So they've been hiring pretty much whatever little that they cut in 2022, they've more than hired back.
So I think you're starting to see now some of the impact on the cost side of the equation, which is probably why that big beat, even though the revenue numbers just met.
So I think that's where it's coming from.
And they have a lot more to go there they they
they could go another year or two by cutting a little bit at a time which is what they've been
doing here there's still a lot they can do on the cost side of the equation yeah there is more cost
cutting they can do um and it seems the search business continues to just defy gravity here you
know search business posted 50.7 billion in revenue.
I don't know what the estimates were intracorder, but that's versus $46 billion year over year.
The cloud beat was also in here, $12.3 versus $12 billion expected.
So slight beat on cloud, but that's reflecting a 29% growth year over year.
Last year, they posted $ 9.57 billion on cloud.
So cloud growing 30% year over year, $70 billion buyback, EPS massive beat.
I mean, it's hard to argue that this is a great quarter for Google.
So CapEx is going up quarter over quarter by 3 billion, 17.2.
Yeah.
I mean, I don't see anything to
To not Google for on this quarter good job for them and obviously estimates have come down with share prices over the last couple of months
So that's helped a little bit but
Excellent execution from them. You can't you can't knock them for for this quarter
Kevin I see you joined us up here.
What's going on?
What's going on?
Well, looks like we might be getting some tornadoes here in my area,
so that'll be fun.
No, nothing.
The goal numbers, as you kind of talked about, look pretty decent.
Let's hear about the conference call.
In my opinion, their executive team is not the rosiest.
They don't paint the rosiest of rosiest pictures, so I think that's probably going to be the bigger risk for it. But overall, it's actually pretty decent. Sorry. It's going to be a pretty decent quarter here. And hopefully we see some of these similar type of results from others within this space, man. So that's kind of what I'm looking at for that.
I don't know if we want to go outside of Google.
So I'll kick it back.
Maybe somebody else has some more Google commentary.
No, we can go outside of Google.
I mean, go for it.
Yeah, you know, I was actually very surprised today, no lie. A little bit surprised of how strong we were.
We have made a higher high on a candlestick basis for the most part, right? At least trying to
eclipse what we saw from the Trump pump on the ninth here. So that's one good thing.
I do need to post this chart. So I'll put this on my page here, but there was
actually an asymmetric triangle, or you can call it a wedge pattern. It don't really matter. Basically,
we were seeing an area of resistance that was being held up here, and it's basically the lower
resistance line that we've had for the last three months. We actually closed above it today,
so I think that's also very key. Reclaiming the 20 day moving average, which is very key. Potentially tomorrow, maybe testing this gap that we have between around
50, let's just call it 5,500, 5,500 and what is that? 5,600, right? There's a gap right
there that we need to also try to test. And so bulls did what they had to do here today.
Market breadth actually expanded.
We didn't see a fade going into the close.
I mean, you saw really broad participation.
We started off this morning.
I think we only had around 36, 38% of stocks in the green.
To finish the day, I would not be surprised.
We had more than 80%.
Last time that I checked, about 30 minutes to go in the close.
We had about 80% of stocks there.
Yeah, this is exactly where we ended up at.
So I think this is a good day.
We just need a follow through day for tomorrow.
I'm still not 100% sold yet
that we don't have another pullback here.
But when you're looking at the weekly chart
and you look at the CCI on the weekly
breaking above the oversold level,
which is kind of a buy signal,
stochastics crossing somewhat of a buy signal.
MACD trying to hinge somewhat of a buy signal here.
So I think we probably could see, you know, 272.
I don't have the SPX numbers because I was just looking at spy on the weekly just now.
But 272 and some change might be your next area of resistance here. So a decent little
move. Once again, I am going to stay a little bit skeptical. Vol's still a very elevated. We're
still in a pretty decent backwardation. If you're looking at the VIX curve, those would be probably
the final two. And we did see liquidity kind of come back into the market for the most part.
If you look at the bid ask size on the E-mini S&P 500, I'll get the final data points from CME tomorrow.
But if we can continue to see that expand, that gives bulls a little bit more confidence.
I just want to see that VIX curve get out of that backwardation.
You don't usually make new highs when you still have near-term elevated volatility risk.
when you still have near-term elevated volatility risk.
So cautiously optimistic,
but I'm still kind of holding towards the comeback recheck.
And maybe we already did.
And maybe this is kind of that push higher here.
I'm just a little bit skeptical.
So cautiously optimistic.
But what is decent right now is that, you know,
your realized vol is actually still
getting is still greater than what implied volatility is right now. So until volatility
crushes to the downside, you can still get away with going with out of the money calls
or out of the money puts. And if vol is going to stay sticky at, let's say, a 25 to 28 level,
those premiums will hold until the ball truly crushes.
So if you want to get some upside exposure like I did yesterday, went super out of the
money and those calls actually held up fairly well.
So continue to do that until you start seeing VIX going below that, say, 20-ish level.
That's where that strategy probably won't work as great.
But this is still a pretty decent market.
Very tough for swing traders, though.
But I like seeing some green on the screen.
Hopefully, the Google numbers and this price advance really holds up to give maybe some further follow-through for tomorrow.
So that's kind of what I got.
I'll kick it back over to you all.
One quick note on Google's numbers.
It looks like Meta and Amazon are also up.
Meta's up over 2% in After Hours.
Amazon is up over 1%.
So there's some sense of relief, I think,
based on Google's numbers that other companies will probably also do well.
Yeah, I think the cloud business, well, mine probably already talked about that.
Cloud business came up a little bit light, but the fact that the market is shrugging that off, I think is a good sign, right?
For now, for now, we'll listen to the conference call once again.
For now, we'll listen to the conference call once again.
I mean, we have seen some crazy moves from Google's executive team as far as how they paint the economic landscape.
And so for now, the price action was pretty decent.
But a slight miss on cloud seems like the market didn't skip a beat on that.
And it looks like we're a little bit more forgiving, which is good.
I think we saw the same thing with Tesla yesterday.
I think it was yesterday, right? Or was it the day before? I don't remember anymore. But same the same thing with Tesla yesterday, it was yesterday, right?
Or is it the day before?
I don't remember anymore, but same thing
would happen with Tesla.
Maybe the same thing happening here with Google.
What are you just looking at the cloud number?
Don't forget strong search revenue is a positive
for Apple too.
Yeah, did YouTube beat?
Did YouTube beat? YouTube was a tiny, tiny miss
but very close.
Okay.
Yeah, but search revenue,
not so much YouTube, right? Search revenue
is branded search there
is a big payment
to Apple, right?
Most of Apple's services revenue comes from Google payment.
And almost all that margin.
You know, what's funny is that I think somebody mentioned
how Google did not shave any like employees
or do a lot of trimming the way that Meta
and some other companies did
last year or in the year before and i feel like google is executing on incredible numbers despite
not despite having a ceo that in my opinion is lackluster despite not doing any sort of
trimming of fat so it's still a very fat company that is basically, to a large extent, resting on its
laurels. But the products, the laurels are so freaking good that these numbers are just like
blow away, right? Like there aren't too many companies that are in this type of position with
$350 billion of revenue run rate. And actually, it's probably going to increase now. It's just mind-blowing.
Their numbers are incredible.
And for such a lackluster CEO to be executing this level is pretty incredible.
So imagine if somebody like Larry Page or Sergey Brin came back and really trimmed fat,
really focused on what's important, really focused on the, tried to take Google to the next level.
I think this is a company that could easily double
or triple from here, but it needs better leadership
and definitely it needs to trim fat
and focus on what's important.
Yeah, it is happening because I'm local here
and I'm very well connected to Google.
I can tell you that it's happening,
but it's happening too slowly, way too slowly.
They need to do a lot more of that.
And they have incredible levers that they can pull on the expense side.
There's still way too much underemployment in Google
that can be cut back dramatically without any impact on productivity.
Exactly.
Imagine if Google pulled off what Mark Zuckerberg did with like the year of
productivity is as he called it.
And then like within four or five months, he laid off 25% of staff and like,
and then since then he's even shut down like various different operations and
their fact checkers, for example, I mean, like Meta has fewer employees today with like 30% more revenue than it did three
years ago.
So, or actually even more than 30, I think it's like 40, 50% more revenue than it did
three years ago.
And it's just mind blowing.
And Google could do the same thing.
It could continue its current growth pace, maybe even accelerate it,
and still cut like 20% of its staff
and execute even better than it does today
because the remaining staff also becomes focused.
At least 20%.
And more, Hamid,
is Google has been spending a lot longer on AI for coding than almost anybody else on earth.
And they have internally got enough data to tell them exactly how much is being done with AI versus having a coder do it, certainly.
So there's a lot of fat there, far more than 20%, in my opinion, that they can cut,
but certainly they can do multiple, you know, two, three, 5% layoffs without any impact, right? So
it really needs to show some, I mean, it's really important to show some leadership here and do
something, anything at this point. Well, it does sound like they are requiring the remote workers to come in
three days a week so that's a soft layoff and it sounds like for some that that's not
like a huge driver but that actually will drive a fair amount of individuals to look for other work
that's that's not work kevin but they are laying off this probably the headcount is probably down
a couple of thousand if maybe a little little bit more in the last six months,
six, nine months.
So there is almost a daily layoff in Google.
So don't get me wrong, but it is trimming,
you know, a dozen here, a couple there, you know, 20 here.
It's not fast enough to, you know, move the needle on costs.
Is there a concern amongst any of you that the outlet of cutting
staff might become a more used outlet, more broadly used outlet, not just for the Mag7
companies, but for companies in general? 100%. 100% is part of the cycle. Is there an economic concern in the backdrop considering the timing of that?
Well, it unfortunately always falls at a bad time,
and it unfortunately all dumps at the same time, right?
So in fact, when I was still working in the Valley,
I used to advise people come to me and say,
hey, if you get an opportunity to be out early in the cycle, take your package, leave early because there'll still be jobs to find.
The later and later cycles that you get laid off, the worse it gets, and it gets worse fast.
I think his question is more about economically.
No, that's my point
Point is also as you feed and feed more into this layoff cycle
You get into a worse economic cycle, right?
The local economy, you know, the consumer confidence locally starts turning down
You know, the housing market
There's more houses getting, you know the housing market there's more houses getting you know dropped into
the market they're less cost uh you know conscious about about getting out if they're you know if
they're in a mess so so a lot of things happen my point is i agree it's it's layoffs are coming
it's only takes the first one or two large layoffs for other companies to follow along.
And it always happens at a weakened state in the economy.
And it does nothing for a while other than, you know, worsen confidence levels.
And it feeds on a bad cycle.
But the ones that do it first, get out of it first too and reap the reward.
Exactly like Hamid said, meta is the perfect example.
Within two quarters,
they laid off over 20%. They made those hard decisions really fast,
which is rapid for a tech company that large
to make such a hard decision.
And then they reap the benefit of it
over the next two years.
Hey, am I seeing this correctly that they raised capex yes i didn't i didn't look at that yet but
i i don't know if somebody mentioned their mark to market i saw a tweet from brad it added 62 cents
of eps to the 280 so versus a 201 estimate not sure if somebody talked about that but
curious if folks have a thought on how that you know might impact forward there is a yeah there
is a 9.7 billion right up on their uh on their bets i have not seen what it is
i've always found a mark to market equity ad and EPS tricky to evaluate if, you know,
the grain of salt.
It helps the overall EPS number, but also it's like, okay, if that backtrace is back
and then obviously Google doesn't guide, then what do analysts expect now moving forward?
Right?
Because if you take that out of the equation from Brad's tweet, you're really at 218 versus 280, right?
And the estimate was 201.
So I don't know.
Just open the thoughts.
I don't really have a real answer.
Yeah, I think it was an 8 billion in unrealized gains,
a non-markable.
I mean, it happens every once in a while.
It's a one-time.
It's a one-time thing, right?
Yeah, I mean, see, if you continue to look at the estimates for the business units,
I mean, they either beat or they slightly miss, like small slight miss,
and I think that's decent.
And then you throw $70 billion, you know, it's a new over-a-trillion-dollar company.
The buyback.
The buyback is just, you know, it's the signal, right? It's not like that amount, in my opinion, is not like something that's going to rock the stock, but it's the signal enough to get people excited.
The search was a good beat.
YouTube was, I mean, according to Brad, I think it was a slight beat he said on his tweet.
Monitiv, you and I were talking about this two days ago.
Now that ServiceNow and Google have reported in this field,
we're seeing an early trend from these two companies
in terms of cyclical nature, what we might expect in this area.
So curious to see if that trend continues now
with the other stocks in the next five weeks.
Yeah, exactly.
And also, you have to remember,
the buyback is working, right?
So the last quarter basis was,
I mean, 2024 Q1 basis was 12.52 billion shares.
And the current basis is 12.29 billion shares. So 230 million shares taken out already.
So all of those help.
Because you point out SAP reported pretty well as well.
So you've got three companies really.
Yeah, and even smaller companies, right?
Alex was another beat.
I mean, there's a lot of data to suggest
that the problem is not there yet. The question is
let's wait and see
how Google guides first before
we make up our mind that that's all clear.
But so far so good.
I wonder what the next big company is. I've got to look
ahead on the one that reports
some Mondago PE
next. Their
call is starting right now by the way if anybody wants to listen you
can listen on earnings hub.com thank you hamid oh no mandago be using for another month i don't
know which is the next big company that's in this field cartrick hey anyone seeing celestica
numbers that will be a good tell on uh what's happening with uh with
semis and stuff what's the ticker numbers celestica cls i haven't even looked at that
they're a huge odm so they make products for a lot of these companies
I got to read into it.
i gotta read into it i honestly didn't even know about this talk until you just mentioned it
I honestly didn't even know about this talk until you just mentioned it.
You've heard me talk about contract manufacturers for ages, AJ.
Come on.
What's the name of the company again?
My memory.
Celestica.
CLS.
There's a few contract manufacturers left.
They've all merged or gone out of business, whatever. But given the tariffs and all these, you know, move to move to move production to US pushes,
these guys should benefit the most. But right now, that's not what interests me is what what I want
to see is, is there a pickup in the volume that that that that we that they're talking about or is there a fall off, right?
I mean, they are a big ODM.
So they make a lot of products for data centers
they make for other companies.
So we should know something from their earnings.
They're down a little bit, Moniz.
So Q1 revenue, 2.65 billion.
Shreet had the estimate of 2.59. Justin Ernie's Bashir came in at $2.65 billion. Street had the estimate of $2.59.
Justin Ernie's Bashir came in at $1.20.
Street was looking for $1.13.
The guide, though, they're guiding between $1.17 to $1.27 for Q2.
Street was looking for $1.24.
So you could say, what, a little slight miss there.
Sales, $2.57 billion and 2.72
billion street was looking for 2.77 billion so they missed on the q2 guide uh full year guide
they missed on full year guide too they guided four dollars and 75 cents on the low end five
dollars on the high end for adjusted eps. Street was looking for $5.76.
They did raise their full year 2025 guidance to $10.7 billion on the low end,
to $10.85 billion on the high end.
Street was looking for $12.54 billion.
So they missed $2 billion on the full year guide.
So it looks like they're guiding light there.
The stock's down.
It's not like getting hammered.
Last time I checked, it's only down $10.
Yeah, I see it, but here is where it gets interesting, right?
So there, let me go back here for a second.
So there's, what is this?
Why am I missing this again? there's, what is this? Why am I missing this again?
CCS, what is that?
OK, I'm blanking out here.
Give me a second.
Let me refocus.
CCS, OK.
So their hardware platform solution segment
increased 99%
compared to Q1 2024.
So that growth is at least looking back a quarter
is still solid.
28 revenue, the whole segment revenue was up 28%.
That's still okay.
Margin 8% compared to 6.8%.
So that's still good
ats segment the other side of it their older manufacturing support business that is down a little bit so miss is probably coming from there uh margin is still okay there so so this is this
is actually a pretty good sign for a whole bunch of hardware companies,
including NVIDIA, AMD, a whole bunch of others where they use companies like Celestica for
integrating parts and components of their products into solution for data center.
This is good.
They say, Celestica, all tariffs paid by the company are expected to be recovered from their customers.
So it looks like they're going to pass through.
I just see that comment.
So I'm just kind of going through.
I didn't see a lot of commentary in the release, but it looks like they might have released a couple of different or filed a couple of different things today.
like they might have released a couple of different or filed a couple of different things today.
So yeah, so aerospace defense, industrial health and capital equipment businesses is not good,
which makes sort of sense. Connectivity cloud services solutions, which is basically servers,
enterprise networking, all of that stuff. That's the hot segment. So that's growing still,
and the margin is expanding. So that's the hot segment. So that's growing still and the margin is expanding.
So that's the detail I was looking for, but this is good.
At least we've not seen a negative sign yet
that data center is falling off the cliff.
I will jump in real quick.
Like Khomeid was saying,
Earnings Hub is the best place
for all of your earnings information.
And of course, you can listen to all these calls live
right there on Earnings Hub.
And there's all kinds of free features on the site,
as well as the AI summary,
my favorite thing about Earnings Hub.
Hamid and the team have built an amazing site,
super valuable tool.
There's a link up top in the nest.
If you want to try that out, you can actually get 25% off your first year using that link
right up there in the nest.
But like I was saying, there's still, Hamid, how much of the site is free?
Like 95% or something of the site is free anyway?
Yeah, exactly.
The vast majority of it is free right now. The pro version costs $99 a year
with that link, you can get it for 75. And it's pretty awesome. You can set up alerts, you can set
up your stocks, all the stocks you care about and get alerts on sort of like all the key events that
happen on them. You can get like analyst rating changes when analysts change
ratings on your stocks. You can get notifications of them. The site has come together really nicely.
And we're starting to run commercials, by the way, for Earnings Hub on CNBC. If anybody has
seen the commercials, I'd love to hear what your thoughts were on the commercial. But yeah,
we're pretty excited about it.
I think we have one of the best investment websites in the world.
So obviously I'm biased saying that, but I think it's pretty awesome.
And it's mostly free, so pretty exciting.
I mean, I watch CNBC just for that.
I don't watch CNBC anymore, but I'll go watch just to see that.
We're running our commercials Tuesday through Thursday during earnings season.
So this week, next week, and the following week,
they're running roughly three times a day.
So I need to turn it on right now and start watching.
I need to turn it on right now and start watching.
Kevin, let me ask you, I mean, if anybody wants to talk further earnings, of course, please jump in.
But Kevin, I was going to ask you from a technical standpoint and the mechanics, if you're seeing anything that really stuck out to you.
If you're seeing anything that really stuck out to you,
I mean,
I mean, obviously, a follow-through day looks nice.
obviously a follow through day looks nice here.
And after hours,
we're kind of poking over those,
this inside week high into the,
that previous week high breaking out.
I don't know.
It looks short term.
Like we may get a push to the upside.
Have you seen any dealer positioning?
I would say,
I mean,
the positioning right now,
I mean,
there's definitely been a little bit of an unwinding.
You have seen some bullish setups, but I want to put an asterisk there because the last hours where we saw a bunch of bearish flows come in for picked up the 52.50s on SPX.
I saw another trade too.
It was like 508.
Yeah, 508 puts.
Somebody bought 4,334 contracts at $2.34 on the 508 puts expiring on May 9th.
That one was actually the one that caught by eye here today.
Volume for the day at the time was $5,159.
So they basically opened up a whole bootload.
And open interest for that this morning was only sitting at 119 contracts.
this morning was only sitting at 119 contracts.
So, you know, I go back and say, like,
this is a very hard position for me personally.
Like, I think there's definitely some call side skew.
You are seeing some, you know, risk reversals being put in as well.
So selling a puts to finance the buying of calls.
Usually when we have days like today, these 1% 1.5% moves,
that's usually the way that institutions
can get away with that, right?
And put some pressure to the upside on stocks.
For me, I'm in a rock and a hard place.
I kind of still feel like you gotta be cautious here.
But cautious doesn't mean you don't participate.
But it just means that you got to, you know, if you're going to buy something, buy something that you love, something that you can really tolerate, maybe any type of jolt to the downside here. But
just knowing the fact that we had that, I don't know if Stock Talk has already done his rant
yet. And that's a good thing. I'm not trying to talk no doubt about it. But I'm not, you know,
the commentary from China earlier this morning, I could have have swore like i first thing i saw on my phone i
was like oh markets are probably gonna sell off and they were down a little bit but the fact that
we recovered uh now you know there may have been a call with chi and i'm not trying to get into
politics guys but honestly i can't believe the news reports or even what comes
out of the White House anymore, because China basically was like, dude, we haven't had any
conversations in the last 72 hours. There were some members of the administration that said that
there were conversations being had. So that makes it a little bit hard for me. That's just me
personally. I think this is actually a very key level once you get to about that 5,500-ish, try to test that next gap to the upside. I mean,
it's open so the gap gets tested and gets filled. Then we kind of go back into our range, right?
We've had two consolidation ranges before the tariff break, we'll just call it that.
the tariff break, we'll just call it that. So now we're getting back into the initial
downward sloping channel. And so once again, it doesn't mean that we're out of the woods yet,
but I mean, recovering the 20 day moving average is a meaningful thing. Making a new relative higher
high on the candlesticks that we've seen over the last two weeks is meaningful. And then not only that, here's another thing I'll give for
the bulls. The volume has been there. Market breadth has expanded. It hasn't been too concentrated at
all, actually. Even the consumer staples that got hit today, I mean, they still performed relatively
well. And so I always keep that in the back of my mind as to potential risk. I go back and I look at a weekly chart. So I look at weekly charts, monthlies, dailies, and then I look at smaller timeframes. The weekly charts are starting to fare. They're starting to have some buy signals there to admit.
So for those that are like listening, and I'm not trying to encourage people to buy into this market, but sometimes you get the feeling when you have balances like this, especially if we have made a low.
And I don't know if we have, but let's say that we have made a low and you're like, damn, I'm too late.
That's not the case, right?
There's going to be more than enough price action out there for you to have an opportunity to trade this market.
So you just wait until you get that confirmation signal.
And today, the weekly chart gave a signal
that this is a buy opportunity.
So that's kind of where I'm at.
You know, you got an upper gap, you got market breadth,
liquidity's trying to backfill.
It's not like what we saw before the pullback, right?
65 contracts on the bid and ask on E-mini, right?
We're probably sitting at around 18 to 20, but it's better than four.
And last Tuesday, we were having four contracts on the bid, four contracts on the ask.
It doesn't take much to move prices.
So liquidity kind of coming back in, you get yourself, okay, I'm not saying that this is
the just full port, but it's like, hey, you could take a small shot here to even the 270-ish area on the SPY before you get, which is possible before you get a little bit concerned.
I just look at the put flows that came in at the end of the day, and all of them hit the unusual scan on WhaleStream.
And I kind of do my own due diligence, but it was fairly aggressive.
So I also keep that in mind. And the only reason why I bring that up is because, look,
the last couple of days, actually last like week or so, you know, people have been front
running certain announcements. So I've been kind of keeping my eye out on these trades a little
bit more lately, some of the smaller lots out on these trades a little bit more lately.
Some of the smaller lots that are starting to build up into bigger positions instead of just looking at 500 lot orders or 1,000 lot orders.
Because you never know.
People most likely are front running a lot of these announcements.
And so just the fact that we saw this huge influx of bearish flow 30 minutes an hour before the close, to me, it was just something that was very noticeable.
I'll throw a couple of these out. You guys can do your own due diligence on this. So
ticker symbol WAI, I don't even know what this company does, honestly. And maybe that's just
me being ignorant, but I mainly trade commodities, but WAI Star Holdings, right? Stock was up 1.3%
today. It doesn't look like it's been
trading for that long, but somebody came in, picked up the $35 puts, 2,200 contracts of those
bad boys today, hitting the ask. And those were the ones that were expiring on May 16th. So that
was kind of one of those that never shows up on my scan, might be something. And the reason why
I bring this up,
those that listen every single day,
RTX last week, remember last week, Tuesday, I talked about those puts to the downside for RTX
and those ended up faring pretty well post earnings.
But yeah, you're seeing a lot of like SPX,
5250s showing up on the radar towards the end of the day.
It's by $5,521 strike here.
So, yeah, I mean, when you're looking at structure right now, it looks okay.
But looking okay instead of having the backredation, the VIX just doesn't sit wrong with me.
Like I said, you don't usually get all-time highs and you don't get close to near all-time highs with the backredation, the VIX just doesn't sit wrong with me. Like I said, we don't usually get all-time highs and you don't get close to near all-time highs with the backredation in the
manner that it is. Usually it'll flatten out and then you'll see a kink in there, right? So you'll
see like back, it's like maybe front month backward to the next month and then it normalizes.
You're not even seeing that pretty much for the rest of the year. So that's something that is just not normal. So there's still some uncertainty being priced in
at the near term here. And that's why I want to say, just be mindful of that. So could this be
the bottom? Could we continue to go up? Yeah, that could be the case, but I'm very cautious
right now and I'm trading super low, like small size. It's very small to the point where it's
like a hobby. Like it's like, okay, let this ride, I could care less.
Like what actually happens to it?
Because that just, I'm sick of getting chopped up,
trying to swing this market is kind of a pain.
So I just trade smaller size intraday just for the hell of it.
So I'll kick it back.
Yeah, I hear you on the swing stuff. I swung along last night, QQQ, 465s for tomorrow,
just because I saw us hold that bottom multiple times.
I got a little nervous overnight when we came down,
but it seems like,
and Suck Talk kind of made a reference earlier,
it seems like somebody has gotten in the White House's ear a little bit and just maybe told them to calm down a bit.
I don't know.
It's only when things break, dude.
It's only when things break.
Right. These announcements are only when things break, dude. It's only when things break. Right.
These announcements are only when things break.
Things start to break overnight, and then, oh, next thing you know, there's some bullish commentary.
So I just got to look at that.
I was looking for whatever breaks.
I want to see what spreads out there that breaks.
CBS is being blown out.
And then it's like, oh, okay.
They're probably going to make an announcement.
But the fact that, and I want to get your thoughts on this unless some of those want to chime in the fact that
china is uh pushing back the way that they are is interesting to me it's a chess move that they are
are pulling here and i'm curious to see how the administration actually handles with handles that
or if they just downplay it right and try to hype up some of these other deals.
So that one's actually very interesting.
It seems like the market might have already digested this and it may be moving forward.
Who knows?
This might not even be a thing anymore.
We might be looking towards the next thing.
But the China commentary this morning, I felt like this is a huge pushback in basically calling some of these White House officials liars.
I found that very, very interesting in this time.
Oh, it's like the walk back is the walk back.
Did you see Trump's response to it?
Did you see Trump's response to what the Chinese foreign ministry said this morning?
He said they did speak to the Chinese and will tell you guys who they are when the time is right.
That's what he said
what does that even mean i didn't see that comment so he's like they spoke to the chinese he was like
referring to it as some mysterious they and he didn't say who it was so that was a weird part
when he when he said you're a liar i don't know what's yeah well that was the weird part when he
said like we'll let you know who they is when the time is right i was like what yeah i didn't get that
either it's like because the reporter basically directly asked him she said hey the chinese
foreign ministry said they didn't talk to you guys and he was like well they did talk to china
this morning and i'm not going to tell you who they are i was like what the fuck are we doing
like this is a mystery now like you have to go figure it out who's talking. I was like, what the fuck are we doing? Like, this is a mystery now? Like,
you have to go figure it out? Who's talking to the Chinese? Like, I don't know. But yeah,
I mean, it's just feels silly and childish at this point. I agree, though, with what Kevin said,
which is that you only see these kind of comments once the pain comes or, you know,
once markets start to turn back down, then you start to see these relief commentary.
back down then you start to see these relief commentary look I wish this
wasn't a political game but it is a political game obviously all things
being equal if this wasn't if there weren't optics involved here and egos
involved here then this probably could have been resolved a long time ago but
because it's a political game you know any sort of concession sorry any sort of
deal involves concessions and concessions are hard to paint as wins.
I'm sure the administration will try to do so, especially with the midterms coming up.
They're going to want to convince the voters that they're doing the right thing.
But it's a tricky game to play when you're like, hey, we're going to show all of our leverage.
We're going to flex.
We're going to expect that flexing to bring people to the table.
And then it doesn't bring your most important trading partner to the table.
That's a failure of negotiation, frankly.
You know, that means that your attempt didn't work, frankly speaking. And so, you know, if that's the assumption we're operating under, then if they
do want to walk this back or they do want to save face, it's going to be a tough thing to do without
simply saying, hey, we were wrong with the original approach. Now, I don't think they'll
say it in as many words, but that seems to be the off-ramp here, just to say, hey, guys, you know
what? We were overzealous with this. We're going to lower tariffs on China and then hopefully negotiate a new deal over the coming weeks
and months. But I feel like I'm too optimistic to expect that.
Yeah, the other news story we did get was around India. There was people inside the Trump White
House alerting Wall Street execs that they are nearing an agreement in principle
on trade with India.
That's kind of the first thing I saw this morning outside of the kind of back and forth
walk back, double walk back with the China stuff.
But that was a positive note.
And I think that's where the market really kind of started rallying going into the pre-market
into the opening bell.
Does it concern you that they're having these conversations with Wall Street banks before
they actually get out to the street?
I mean, that is wild to me.
Are we surprised, though?
No, we're not surprised.
But, you know, full disclosure, I work for a big Wall Street firm, right?
But it's kind of like, it's just weird that we're just normalizing those.
And I think I saw another note today.
I don't know if it's true, but like maybe China might be reducing some of the tariffs on semiconductors or what have you.
Right. So that's why the semis moved up.
So it's like, you know, it's hard to trade the news flow when you can.
But once again, I would just be very cautious because it seems like we get something we get something good in the morning and then in the
afternoon it's like oh that's not true overnight something's not true and it's just this back and
forth will just continue to website you until the market gets numb with it and that might be
actually happening right now right like it might be so convoluted and the market's just like look
no one knows so it doesn't seem like it's going to get
as bad as what we saw in Liberation Day. So just buy. And that actually is a, that's a thing,
right? That's a, if you're a long-term investor, that's probably the route that you need to think.
If you're somebody that's building out a portfolio for 10 years, five years, 10 years,
15 years, this is an opportunity for sure. If you're a trader and
you're trying to enter a scalp like I do, or some of the other traders on the panel here do,
you trade the trend, but the trend could shift on a dime. And sometimes, I don't want to see
my heart skips, but I'm sure that you understand what I'm talking about. When you see those flashes
of a 15-point spike in SPX on a minute candle it's like oh hell like what happened now and you're just
like scouring through the news like what happened so you could try to trade it or or get out of a
position cover risk and that's it's not a it's not a fun environment in my opinion but uh
it is what it is so it's just i just find it very odd that it's like 90 days pause i mean i was told
to somebody that it was like no that's not real it's like oh it comes to fruition we're talking
to gpm execs about something leaked something out becomes true this news that you just kind
of highlighted is just weird to me but it is what it is it's a new environment it just kind of highlighted is just weird to me, but it is what it is. It's a new environment. I mean, it's kind of wild, right?
It's one of those things like everyone kind of knows slash assumes it, but just openly saying it like that, that is kind of weird, I guess.
I'm just trying to be president, dude.
Maybe we need it.
I'd be cleaning up right now.
Just kidding.
Kevin Green,
2028.
There you go.
There you go.
Did I just get a text before you?
Truth social.
Yeah.
Buy now.
I would just put that every single day and just have the market just full
port every day.
I feel like you would be very pro pro natural gas as a president.
I would be, yeah.
Do you have any thoughts?
We've got about five minutes here.
We are going to have our VC show here at the top of the hour over on Wolf Financial.
But, Kevin, do you have any thoughts around oil right now?
Yeah, actually, I wrote an article, a smaller article this morning around it.
I think I just posted it to X.
So you guys can check that out.
I'll post it up here too.
You know, the price action on oil is actually very interesting to me to see that it's actually
trying to firm up here, given the fact that OPEC from a report that OPEC might be doing
another round of production increases starting in June, given the fact that inventory levels
here in the United States, when you're
looking at crude oil, kind of just moved up on the EIA report. And so I feel like, one,
it's probably some short coverage taking place by managed money because they were pretty
significantly short, very short, actually. And I have a chart of that on my page. You'll have
to scroll down. I posted that like a week ago two weeks ago so it's it's a decent little technical bounce back here and i would be kind of surprised if we're
able to try to climb back to the 70 level just given the environment that we're in right now
um crack spreads are silicon good so like we're you know if valero like missed on their estimates
i think they had like a horrible report but like if you're looking at crack spreads they're kind of
still holding up and i believe that's because of the diesel side if you
look at diesel inventories seasonally at this particular point in time we're at the lowest
levels that we've had since 2008. um so we have very very tight supply when it comes to diesel
um but obviously the demand has not been there freight freight demand locomotive demand may be
waning a little bit.
There's also liquefied natural gas trucks that you're seeing, like Japan.
We'll say China for the most part, right? China too.
That also is kind of weakening diesel demand.
But I'm more surprised actually that OPEC's taking the measure that they are.
And so I'll be a conspiracy theorist here.
So I either think that they're trying to put pressure on the shale play, try to wash that out like they did in 2014, 2015,
or there might be, you know, preparations or trying to get ahead of any type of
regional conflict in the Middle East that could potentially put oil at risk, which I still think is actually
a risk out there, no matter what the commentary really says. The actions and the positioning
when it comes to the military positioning says otherwise. Until we see that actually
de-escalate, I think there's still a potential risk out there for an Iranian-Israeli conflict
that also brings us involved in one way, shape, or form. So it's holding up for now,
but I'm, once again, one of those trades where I'm like, if you're on the long side,
I'd be very cautious with it right now because the fundamentals to me don't scream like Uber buy.
I mean, if anything, I'm kind of looking more towards the silver gold flip here. Not meaning that gold has to go down necessarily,
but looking for outperformance for silver.
Like if everybody has the market pricing and economic,
the worst of the economic conditions
or the perceived economic conditions
that we might see over the next six to 12 months,
usually that's when you start seeing that gold
to the silver ratio flip.
I won't say flip, but like starting to rotate a bit.
So silver is actually probably the only commodity right now that I would say looks bullish. Natural gas
continues to fade. Man, that was a tough call. That was a tough call a couple of months ago.
And that bad boy hit 450, but rightfully so we were seeing it move to the downside. I'm looking
at 250 for Natty to hit.
So that's what I got on the commodity front.
But for oil, I just, you know, if it stays in this range, cool, right?
$55 probably was a little bit extreme to the downside.
But I don't know how you can really justify $72, $75 oil right now, given the environment.
to $75 right now, given the environment.
Appreciate that, Kevin.
We are right here at the top of the hour.
Stock talk.
Any final words of wisdom for the people today before we close out?
No, not really.
I mean, we'll see you guys tomorrow.
Hopefully this rally continues.
You know, if you want to see a character change in this market,
you want to see this rally continue right if we peel back below the 20 day tomorrow like that's not going to be
encouraging action you'd like to see this rally continue and um you'd like to see the breath
continue you know the kind of push that we got today obviously a lot of people are going to refer
to that swag thrust and say that it's you know S&P 500 is positive on a three, six month
and one year basis following it. That's true. But you need to see the beginnings of construction to
the upside. So I mentioned this earlier, the daily chart starting to look better for the S&P 500.
Weekly chart, I think it's still a little bit concerning. On a monthly basis, if we close this
month and retake some key levels, that'll be nice to see.
So I think the monthly and the daily starting to improve, the weekly, still some signs of concern.
But I mean, look, better than nothing, right? You can't start a recovery without a couple of these
days, stringing a couple of these days together, building some bases out on your market leading
stocks and hopefully having a couple of catalysts on the
table, right? We had that Google earnings today, which was a nice earnings, should probably lead
to some positivity for tech sentiment tomorrow. Semiconductors already had a really nice day today.
So you string together a couple of those days, and you have some nice technical
reconstruction going on. So let's look forward to that. All said, logical. 10 seconds, because I've got to close out and open the other one.
Yeah, I was just going to say, we got the breadth thrust, and breadth thrusts means that many
stocks made whatever they pushed higher, right? And so I think one thing to remember in pullbacks
is that a lot of times the individual names bottom before the indices. So while we could still see the indices maybe make somewhat of lows going forward,
it's possible that individual names have bottomed.
So that's kind of what I'm going to look out for.
Perfect.
And with that, we'll close this out.
Stock Talk said we'll be back tomorrow.
Tomorrow is Friday, so we'll actually be back on Monday.
Never mind, Monday, yeah.
But you can check out the...
Are we doing Investing with the Boys tomorrow?
I'm hoping we are, but
Shy and Sam are out, so we're trying to figure out
if we're still going to hold that thing. I would like to.
Let's see.
Perfect. TBD.
Steph Guild was on the podcast,
so watch out for that release from Investing with the Boys.
Alright, everyone. Take care. Have a great evening.
We'll see you over on Wolf Financial right now for the Venture Capital Show. Thank you.
