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Greenland and Big Tech with ThemesETFs | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Jan. 27, 2026 Duration: 2:29:51Space Recording
Short Summary
The conversation centered around the bullish sentiment in the stock market, particularly during earnings season, with major companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta expected to report strong growth. The discussion also highlighted the significant rise of AI technologies and their potential to disrupt traditional job markets, indicating a broader trend towards automation and technological advancement.
Full Transcription
what is up everybody how are we doing evan stock market news behind the stocks on spaces
account i hope you guys are all doing well stock market is moving higher my single stock portfolio
is up by one percent so far today we have a new Stock Talk weekly pick coming in,
which will be on the second half of this space.
Let's get excited for that conversation.
We're not quite in the thick of...
I mean, it is earnings season week.
There's a lot of names that are about to be reporting earnings.
Get excited. Get ready for it.
But we do have
not the largest of names
coming up after the close day.
Texas Instruments, Seagate, etc.
Logitech, F5, a few other names.
Tomorrow morning, there are a lot of earnings.
Late, late tonight, ASML will report earnings.
And then Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, all reporting earnings live tomorrow during the spaces.
Also, we will be live for Jerome Powell tomorrow.
So get excited, get ready.
It's going to be a very busy day in the stock market tomorrow although today a little bit of the
calm before the storm i know people might say it's a little bit of an interesting move
etf portfolio is also moving higher that one's up by one percent the single stock portfolio
that one is up by one a little bit more actually so we got double green
portfolios not bad ethereum's still under 3k but not down apple's looking decent 260 tesla is one
of the names that's a little bit underperforming out of the mic 7 but rest are doing pretty good Amazon up point 2.5 percent Microsoft up 2.5 percent
under underneath that a little bit of more tech is is red if you tell me RSP let's see where is RSP which is the equal weight S&P 500 that one is down 0.1 percent that actually doesn't fully
surprise me what I was looking at their mag Mag7 looking pretty good. Rest of the market
not as much. Looking okay.
Some of the Stock Talk names doing pretty decent.
ENS, LEU
up on the day. Up pretty well.
Micron is a name that is green today. Up 6.6%.
Wow.
RocketLab is also
a name that is pretty green today. Up 7%.
There are some large movers.
Sandisk, which is the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, is up another 3%.
Let's go and re-look at that.
Best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far this year is Sandisk, up 100%, 105%.
Moderna's up 55%.
Western Digital's up 47%.
And then Micron is up 45%.
We've got Stock Talk Weekly
name Huntington Ingalls up
24% so far this year.
Number 16
in the S&P 500.
Best performing stock in the index so far
this year. Seagate, which does
report earnings today after the close. Seagate
STX. They are the sixth best performing stock in the S so far this year seagate which does report earnings today after the close seagate stx they are the sixth best performing stock in the sp sp500 so far this year and they are
reporting earnings today after the close so get excited for that one this should be a great
conversation i am looking forward to it we should be having some good speakers up here i am uh
looking forward to stocks on stock talk should be joining in a little bit
like I said there is a new stock pick we've been though I gave you guys a little bit long enough
of an intro there we got 189 of you 200 of you guys already in here I appreciate it I am excited
for this conversation options Mike why don't you kick us off I know you talk us through what you're
looking at in the in the market each day but once don't you tell me a little bit about this uh this move in the market today it's green we got sandisk and micron and stuff
like that is pretty green we got the mag 7 is up a good little bit today carrying uh the day so far
yeah i mean hey i mean it's a quiet day the market volume is pretty low only 35 million shares if the
spy hit a new all-time high today spike did a new all-time high today what's the average volume going back uh i don't know but typically we're doing i mean we're
we're pretty light here we're only at 35 million shares traded with under an hour to go so you
know yesterday we did we did 60 million the last couple days 60 60 80 120. so you know we're we're pretty light here today but you know not surprising given the
amount of earnings we have tomorrow night i know we have the fed decision tomorrow but i don't think
anybody's expecting it much out of that one you know you have uh you have a you know market breadth
is overall not great the banks are weak today but you have big names microsoft and is having a nice
day ahead of earnings tomorrow.
Amazon is breaking nicely to the upside. Yet Apple had a nice move earlier today.
So these are kind of names that are all helping push the market here higher.
Corey, we've had another follow-up day. Nice day here too. And it's really just to write
our notes about names. I thought the GM report this morning was a great report. They took out
recent highs here. They're not far from the all-time high now. U morning was a great report. They took out recent highs here.
They're not far from the all-time high now.
UPS was a good report.
You know, healthcare was an unmitigated disaster.
NVIDIA popped into the 190 area again, which has been resistance.
It got rejected right at 190 exactly and is drifting back down to VWAP here.
It's just the market remains strong.
I mean, I think tonight STX at
Seagate is going to give us a really good idea of the semi trade because you have that in ASML
tonight and both of those are at all time highs and have been on a rampage. And, you know, are
they going to be able to say enough to continue these names moving here? Are they going to, you
know, sell this off no matter what? Now, we've seen that happen. Remember when the video was
running rampant and just sold off on a great report and great guidance
because it just moved too much.
So it's possible, Seagate for what it's worth
went from like 63 to 300, whatever it is right now
in nine months.
It's just an insane type of move.
But I think overall the market here is fine.
It's waiting.
It's looking to see how these mag seven names report
in these big tech. We got Tesla there tomorrow night as well. Big night coming up for earnings. So I think it's
just in a waiting game here. It's just kind of waiting to see what we're going to get. And
if you have really good reports from Microsoft and Meta and Apple this week,
Tesla also, but not so much, but those three specifically, they could really drive this
market and get this market moving to the upside what i am looking at here is that despite hitting
a new all-time high today every time we've done this last couple months we pull right back the
next day so i'm hoping that we're going to break that trend and maybe actually start to break out
to the upside other than that quiet day
mr brian lund why don't we go over to you uh right away here first and then we can kick into some
back and forth but are you any changes in the market today anything you're thinking today
i know a volume as opposite mike was saying there a little bit below what it has been yeah so it
mike's right it's a slow day and 95 of the time when I'm on here, I'm talking strictly trading, strictly technical
analysis, risk reward, very strategic. But every now and then I do thematic things, somewhat a la
stock talk. And one of the things we've been looking at at the Lund Loop for quite a while now
is we have hometown boy Palmer Lucky out here who has been on our radar for a long time, but it's been a lot of people's radar with Anduril, which is an Orange County-based defense contractor.
It's really cut from the cloth of a Palantir.
And they're not public, but they do have a lot of component suppliers who are public.
And a couple of names that we've been in, LundLoop subscribers have been in, are doing pretty good today.
We've got Ocean Power Technologies, which is OPTT.
That's up 21% today.
We've got Syntec Optics Holding, which is OPTX. That's up 11%. And we've got Kraken
Robotics, which is KRKNF, which is up a measly 4%. So it's nice seeing those things go. These
names, by the way, they're either heroes or zeros. If you're Australian, they're sitting near the
bush. They're either going to go to a gazillion or they're going to go to zero. So they're not things we're trading.
Things we're just trying to acquire positions around theme.
I think it's a good theme.
I think Palmer's a pretty smart guy.
So there's that.
And other than that, yeah, I did AMA for subscribers yesterday.
Someone asked me, you know, what are the lessons I've learned about myself
from being in the market for so long? And what have I learned about myself being so long? So I
put a video out last night. It's in my Twitter stream. It's unlocked. It's free for everyone.
And it's basically what the market's taught me about myself in 40 years of trading.
So I would encourage everyone on this slow day to go take a look at that.
It's pretty raw.
It's pretty unfiltered.
But I think it's good.
So yeah, that's about it.
Gotcha.
I appreciate you guys for joining in here.
Let's kick into it a little bit on some of the conversations.
Now, there was a couple large news stories that that i saw today i might just run through my page pull out some of the
large ones and then we could pick through a couple of the the bigger stories that were coming out
today ming chi kuo who is a supply it was a supply chain analyst over at taiwan had a couple
interesting posts it was running around apple and how they're dealing with the increasing memory
chip prices,
which the benefit for Micron and SanDisk on the stock price is a little bit to the detriment of people like Apple and others who are using it. I see a me down below. I'd love to get you up here.
There was a story around Anthropic that they were originally looking to raise $10 billion,
now they're reportedly looking to raise $20 billion. There was another story around home
builders and that home buyers are reportedly backing out of deals at the fastest pace in nearly a decade.
That was an interesting, unexpected headline that I saw coming out today.
The S&P 500, as Options Mike did say, did hit new intraday all-time highs quickly there for a little bit.
And it might even be there right now, but new all-time high day for the S&P 500, SPY at least.
There was an interesting story out of Amazon
that they are announcing a little shakeup in their grocery segment.
They are shutting down a bunch of their Amazon Fresh
and the Amazon other locations and turning them into Whole Foods.
Some of them announced an expansion that they're planning for Whole Foods.
They announced an expansion into same-day delivery and stuff,
kind of getting rid of some of the oddities
that they maybe had in their accounts a little bit before.
There was a news story that's been going around
for a couple days or something,
but TikToker Kabi Lame,
I might have said his name a little bit wrong,
he signed a $975 million deal with Rich Sparkle Holdings,
$975 million,
and they get the rights to his account
for the next 36 months.
I believe that is a stock.
ANPA.
I didn't know much about it before, but there you go.
UnitedHealth getting absolutely slammed after earnings.
Pinterest announced they are firing some people from their workforce.
There was also an interesting deal between corning and meta
platforms today i wonder if what glw is doing intraday up 15.5 percent it held on to its gains
there you go uh i'm gonna stop laboring here a little bit and throw it over to you hamid how
are you doing sir hey hey evan how are you i'm doing well obviously we got earnings coming up
and i want to ask you about the the mega cap earnings we have coming up tomorrow.
But any of those news stories I was running through there
interesting for you at all?
I think this Meta Corning one is maybe expected
with this AI trade, but it's Corning.
It's quite the move this morning.
I haven't seen the Meta Corning one.
I heard when I came in, you were talking about Micron
and the memory shortage, and that piqued my interest. But when I came on, I totally missed what you said about it.
And then obviously, I'm looking forward to tomorrow's Tesla and Microsoft and Meta earnings.
Meta is one of my core holdings. So that one is the most interesting to me, but I'll be listening to all of those.
Yeah, I'm very excited for all these journeys.
The story around Corning and Meta is, Meta has agreed reportedly to buy up to, is the thing, $6 billion of glass, fiber optics, whatever it is, from Corning over the next four years for the AI data center build-out.
So that was this thing, building that out.
Basically, just every part of this AI data center build-out
is still finding different ways to work its way in.
Obviously, Rare Earths and that whole trade
has been absolutely ripping and has not slowed down.
Let's see.
One of the things that this sort of shows
is that if Meta continues to be investing so heavily, they're confident about their numbers, right?
Like you would not expect them to have a major miss on their quarterly report when they're announcing deal after deal where they're investing even more each time they announce something new.
more each time they announce something new. And then the GDP growth rate at over 5% is also super
interesting that that is anticipated to happen in 2026. So all sort of indications seem to sort of
point to continued accelerated growth, which seems to be unprecedented, but kind of exciting at the same time. It's kind of good times to be investing and good times to be alive and seeing what's going on.
I mean, this might be an always feeling,
but do you feel like you need to be invested in something right now more than ever?
Bitcoin's been going down.
Crypto's been going down.
But do these Bitcoin people have a point
a little bit over this next couple years?
Gold's been doing super well
debasement and stuff like that
debasement
I think at some point
they will probably be right
because the deficit spending just doesn't make sense
but if we can grow the economy fast enough
but without continually
increasing deficit spending, we could potentially grow our way out of it.
That's a possibility out of the debt thing. But certainly politicians don't seem to have the
sort of right incentive framework in order to make that happen. Because, you know, you get
elected based on popularity vote.
And the more you promise, the more likely you are to be popular.
So it doesn't seem like a problem that's going to be solved anytime soon.
I tend to sort of like not worry about the macro stuff
and sort of stay focused on the individual companies.
So that's sort of like my framework on it.
There's a great meme out there right now where it says,
you were right about currency debasement,
but you bought Bitcoin instead of gold.
I know the one you're talking about.
It's very funny.
It's got Leo in it.
Yeah, it's a good one, honestly.
I was trying to think of a good way to use it on something else.
That is a great meme.
Honestly, maybe you just had the move already but yeah but those people have only been right for one year i mean like i'm not a bit big bitcoin pusher or anything like that but no no
not one not one year 50 years they've only been right once in 50 years people have been saved
by gold forever right i yeah your point's%. They've been right for one year versus Bitcoin.
The previous 10, they would have been wrong.
Or 50.
Versus Bitcoin has been around since 2009.
So it's the previous 15 years or whatever.
But yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, I enjoy the back and forth, obviously i sometimes i give a little bit of a pause
to let you guys chime in sometimes it's because i'm looking for the mute button but
i think most of the time it's because we're trying to be a tactful host
um so yeah that's good i appreciate you for for chiming in there i don't know conversation
have you guys already talked about copper?
I'm just kind of curious what you guys' views are on copper.
I aped in.
I bought some copper.
They got me into it.
They did it.
Yeah.
Everyone and their mother has been asking me about copper in the past week.
And I'm like, where did this come from? And of course, it's like an S&P Global report of anticipating copper shortage starting in 2030, by the way.
So it's fascinating to me that so much hype can be generated from an analyst report when they're
often wrong. They had predicted similar sort of thing for nickel and lithium and basically
battery components five years ago. everyone was like oh we need
nickel nickel nickel and i don't know if you guys remember even like elon musk was like if you if
you have nickel we want to buy all of it or something and and uh people sort of jumped in
and like of course prices just stabilized and eventually went down after sort of a short-term hike. So
again, these are things I don't really pay attention to, but it's kind of interesting
to see the investment community losing their minds over something like copper in such a short period
of time. My favorite crazy copper bulls are the ones that have been hoarding pennies for like decades under the idea that eventually the U.S. government is going to allow them to melt them down and they're going to be gazillionaires.
That's always a funny copper take.
Yeah, the storage cost on that might cost a little too much, though.
Right, you think?
I just want you all to know, DJ T's been buying pennies left and right we now have
500 billion dollars with the pennies in our inventory
And he's got he's got Bitcoin. He's got a nuclear fusion company now. I mean who knows what else you can put into there
I'm hoarding solid
Following the big money's going. I'm buying 20-pound bags of salt.
I think that's the next big commodity.
Really?
They just had to come blow it off where I live because they threw so much on.
There was more salt on the ground than there was snow after they were done shoveling.
See, that's the take.
They're wrong on global warming.
It's global cooling, and they're going to need all the salt they can get,
so they're going to have to come to me.
What you need is a S&P Global report
on the salt shortage that's coming
and then your salt will be super valuable.
But before we do that,
you and I start a salt ETF
and then we're ready to go.
Exactly.
There you go.
Amid, tomorrow
is a big day for your portfolio.
We have
Meta reporting earnings.
There's also Tesla, which I know you're
watching a little bit.
You got any thoughts on these Meta earnings coming up
tomorrow after the close? What you're excited
for? What you'll be watching for?
Obviously, we'll be live on Spaces right here
on Stocks on Spaces. Hopefully, you'll join watching for we'll obviously obviously be live on spaces right here on stocks on spaces hopefully you'll join us meta my view i don't know if uh you've heard me talk about this
it's a stock that i've been adding to um adding to my portfolio even more it was already part of
my portfolio for a while but in the past couple months I've been adding more to it. And to me, I don't
understand the sort of like price on this company where it's trading at a, even with this recent,
I mean, just a few days ago, it was in the low 600s, like $605 or something like that.
It's 670 now, even with this recent run up, Meta is trading at a PE of 23 and growing faster than Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, any of them.
Their fastest growth rate of the other Mag7 is 15% and Meta is growing at 21%.
And all of the AI investments that they have been making have not yet resulted in any actual revenues or products.
So all of that is gravy and potential upside for the future
if they actually do something amazing.
In the meantime, they're growing faster than everybody else anyway.
So to me, the price of Meta doesn't make sense under $1,000.
So I've been adding to it.
And I am excited to see where they land tomorrow and, you know, if they continue to have the same pace of growth and what they say on the commentary.
But I suspect it'll be positive just because, you know, you're not announcing deals left and right if you don't feel that your financials are strong enough to support it.
So I'm a believer in the Zuck,
in Mark Zuckerberg.
There's a concern around spending right now
a little bit there.
Obviously, we're spending without the return coming in.
I guess that's what the people are fearing about.
Is that what you're like?
I don't know.
Are you, what are you watching on this earnings call
is kind of what I'm expecting.
Or are you hoping for?
Are you some sort of justification of revenue
of spending? Is it maybe a little bit of pullback in spending? Is it
highlights of mitigating the downside?
Highlights of the upside? What are you kind of watching for in this one?
Meta's profitability is so high on every
dollar of revenue that is mind-blowing.
So despite their incredibly high spending, so it's not like they're borrowing to spend.
They're basically using their cash to spend.
And yeah, these data centers get a six-year depreciation schedule. So technically,
they're spending the money now and depreciating it one-sixth at a time per year for the next six
years. But these are like assets that historically have shown to produce revenues for longer than
six years. So the six-year depreciation seems to be in line with industry standards. I mean,
I'm not worried about that in the way that like Michael Burry is worried about that, the short seller. So again, I'm not worried
about the spending when they're so freaking profitable, because what else do you want them
to do? Just hoard the cash? Like, that doesn't make sense. So yeah, absolutely. Spend for the
future. Like, build the next technologies that are going to be coming up. And Meta is at a good place to be able to do that and scale that.
Mike, I wonder if you have any thoughts that you want to throw in on any of these earnings we have coming up tomorrow.
There's a couple in the morning as well.
These mega cap names, I'm sure, are actively trading.
So, yeah.
Yeah, I mean, to me, tomorrow morning we have GED, which, you know, I think that's one of the safest way to play the nuclear play instead of these, you know, Okada or NNE.
I'd like to see what they have to say in the guidance.
So tomorrow, Starbucks to me, I think is honestly
going to be the real interesting one.
You know, that turnaround story, is it starting
yet or not? You know, the spin-off of China,
how's that going? Where do they go?
But for me, well, these are all
interesting. It's all about tomorrow night.
You know, Microsoft got beaten up
because of, you know,
their guidance last time because, you know, basically they got caught wrong.
They couldn't build fast enough.
They didn't recognize what the demand was going to be.
And, you know, for data center, they got caught flat and they couldn't meet demand and build out fast enough.
I'm going to bet you that's not going to happen two quarters in a row.
And, you know, Meta to me is the real interesting one um if they feel they're starting
to monetize ai look out i think that thing could absolutely go rage if they're not yet monetizing ai
and i know they're they're spending like they're going to be just fine with it the market could
throw another little fit and drop it back down so i think that one's going to be the one to watch
because if they show they're starting to monetize ai like google is that thing could
explode uh tomorrow night and you'll just just keep going right back to that all-time high
and then we got good old uh tesla wait wait before you move off of meta uh option
mike what do you mean by monetize ai because that's important. So right now they're talking, they're not charging anybody.
Google's charging for Gemini and Microsoft's charging stuff for Copilot, right?
They're seeing actual revenue coming in as a result of that.
Meta, you can create the images and stuff with them right now, and they're using AI
in their app and they're into Facebook and stuff, but you're not really seeing them charging anything to people for it.
We're hearing that they're using it to help get better ad placements and to sell more ads.
But it has to show up somewhere.
I think that's how I mean it.
Does that make sense?
Yeah, absolutely.
But it is showing up somewhere.
It's showing up in the revenues and profits.
That's where it's showing up.
I mean, the interesting thing is that this is what I was talking about earlier, which, you know, Meta is sort of getting discounted because they don't have direct revenue from AI products because they don't really have any AI products that they're charging for.
But they have indirect revenue by optimizing their ad systems better.
And interestingly, they have literally the best ad system.
I don't think I buy from any other ads except for like Instagram ads. And Instagram is their only product that I really
use. But ironically, in the past few months, I've found myself buying more and more things off of
Instagram than anywhere else, even Amazon. So that's surprising to me. And to me, that is monetization of AI,
right? So it is, but it's not, I mean, you can think about what the whole llama model,
which is supposed to, you're going to try to, they're trying to sell and try to beat out
Grok and open AI and stuff. It's not really being adapted anywhere or making money off.
I think that's what they're looking for. Show me some tangible returns for the amount of money
they're dumping into this.
Right.
Okay.
So what I would say to that comment is that the tangible returns are in their revenue and profits, which are actual dollars being put into shareholders' pockets from a profitability standpoint.
But going back to Llama for a moment, Llama was one of the leading open source products until about a year ago. And then all of a sudden, they sort of like basically went undercover
on Llama. And this happened right around the same time that Mark Zuckerberg decided that
they were falling behind and started giving $100 million signing bonuses for the top AI talents in the world
to bring them under meta.
And we have seen them basically not announce anything
since he put together this sort of like super team
of AI talent.
So all of that is like, I suspect in the works
and something is going to be cooking up there.
But even if nothing comes out of that, and like, for example, I don't think anything is going to be cooking up there. But even if nothing comes out of that,
and like, for example, I don't think anything is going to come out of that tomorrow in their
earnings fall. I don't think we're going to see any surprises. Like if their revenue and profits
have gone up like 20% or more compared to last year, that in itself is what's super impressive
to me because they're still figuring out
how to squeeze more dollars
out of the existing products.
And then what they might release in the future
from this super talented team of people
that they have put together
might even be additional gravy
on top of this revenue growth,
which has accelerated.
So if I remember correctly,
their last report,
they had a great report
and then they sold it,
even though that was built in as well.
I think, again,
I understand what you're saying
and I understand it's built in,
but I think the market's looking
for something they can point at.
My personal opinion.
So in the last report in particular,
they also had a one-time charge
of $15 billion tax issue.
And, you know, the market could be literally
sometimes it's stupid enough to to just sort of like pay too much attention or not enough attention
to the details and miss the fact that like they had record revenue and profitability last quarter
and they should not have been taking meta down it just did not make sense to me like when i looked
at it i was like okay i'm gonna buy some more and that was my take on meta as opposed to the way the market looked
at it so if them if they have a great quarter and but they didn't have any ai revenue which i i
suspect will be close to zero because like literally they don't have any ai products that
have revenue and the market says you know, we're going to take meta down.
I'm going to be just double downing on this company because if they continue to have awesome
revenue growth, irrespective of AI products, then imagine what's going to happen when they
actually release AI products. But also, it doesn't make sense for them to have low PE and
price to sales when they're growing faster than
everybody else. So those are the parts that are disconnected for me. The other thing I think I'd
watch out for with them is I don't think they've announced a buyback since February 1st of 2024.
Could be wrong, but I remember they did a $50 billion buyback on that report.
They could do a big buyback here.
Yeah.
I think they've been using a lot of their cash for CapEx spend,
but it wouldn't surprise me
if they announced some kind of an increased buyback,
but it might take a few more quarters
of cash buildup before they start back.
They could.
I mean, you're two years out since the last announcement.
This is usually around the time they would go out and do something.
Just something to watch for.
And you're right.
They could wait a while.
So, sorry.
You can go on to the next company that you were going to comment on.
Okay.
Sorry.
I wanted to.
No, it's all good.
That's what we do this show for, right?
I mean, we do this so we can talk and debate each other. And this what it's for um i mean i've talked a ton about tesla i think
the numbers tomorrow are absolutely irrelevant it doesn't matter whether they beat or miss
it's going to come down to the conference call and if any hard dates are set on some of the
products that we're looking for we talked about this yesterday uh you know if if he has a very
aggressive and gives hard dates like short-term dates for RoboTaxi rollout, I think that will get the stock moving.
But, you know, sounds like Optimus is two years away yet.
Based upon what he said at Davos last week.
Yeah, he so casually just talked about Optimus maybe like by the end of 2027 yeah and and like
i was like wait a second did he just casually delay optimus by a year because he had previously
been talking about uh this year yeah this year being the scale year is essentially with thousands
of units shipped last year which you know like they're missing the thousands of units shipped last year, which, you know, like, they're missing the thousands of units last year.
Okay, like, he hasn't given us an update yet,
but then the update,
he sort of casually gives us
an additional year on top of that.
Yeah.
So that was a big surprise.
And so that means Optimus
has zero revenue impact in 2026 and 2027.
And RoboTaxi, which again was supposed to have,
you know, like all of what 80% of the US covered
by the end of last year,
basically has no one able to just casually use it
except for beta users.
So there's no revenue yet from RoboTaxi.
If they scale RoboTaxi rapidly to the scale that Waymo has, let's say, and even surpassed Waymo and generate twice as much revenue as Waymo has in the past year.
But they do that in 2026. That's like 700 million dollars of revenue, certainly under one billion.
say that's like 700 million dollars of revenue certainly under 1 billion so it's not big but it's
the it's it's the promise right the start of it i think the market would be happy with that but
yeah i agree you're not going to see billions of dollars in revenue coming out of robo tax this
year yeah so i guess my question to tesla bulls would be like, when do you expect revenue, rapid revenue growth to happen?
And why are you so excited for this company being, you know, at one point, what is it?
$1.4 trillion.
Like, I don't get it.
When I was excited about Tesla, Tesla revenue growth was happening year after year at 50%
roughly, plus or minus a little bit.
But they haven't grown revenues for two years.
It doesn't look like they're going to grow revenues even in single digits for the next year or two.
So, you know, where's the excitement for Tesla?
And I think that's what he needs to create.
I agree with you, but he needs to create that.
So the answer that Tesla permaboles would give you as to when they expect
the revenue, the answer would be in the future.
Yeah, I mean, that was a huge Tesla bull
between 2015 and 2021 when revenue was
growing 50% annualized every year.
growing 50% annualized every year.
And I think the financials got disconnected, disjointed from the stock price and the bulls.
And even Elon, as late as 2022, he said that revenue growth at 50% annualized, it might
not happen every year, but basically, you projected a few
years at a time, you're going to look back and say, yeah, it was 50% annualized growth.
As late as 2022, he said that he expects that for the foreseeable future for Tesla.
And now we're in 2026. And for the past at least three years, there has been very, very little growth. So it's
problematic from my standpoint. And it doesn't look like that growth is happening in 2026 and
2027. So that's a total of like five years of lack of growth. And the price of the stock is
still priced as if it's growing at 50% annualized.
So, you know, like all of these things are like a bad mix of mix of things, but, you
know, you know, stock price will do what the stock price will do.
I have no control over that, but that's why I'm not in Tesla.
I mean, Tesla has never really been a stock about the fundamentals and the growth, right? I mean, ever since-
Oh, I disagree with that. When I was in it, it was about that. It was 100% about that.
So like a broken clock, there might've been certain periods, but for most of Tesla's existence,
I mean, there were literally magazine covers that would come out incessantly about people
five years ago, six years ago, seven years
ago, that would be diving deep into all the numbers saying there's absolutely no way this
company can go higher. They were right. They were right from a fundamental standpoint. I'm just
saying this company's never moved on the traditional metrics that maybe another company would. It's
always about- But actually they were wrong. and the reason they were wrong is because they were
comparing it to car companies who were
growing at 1-2 or 3%
annually and Tesla was
growing at 50% annually
and their financials, you can go look at their
sort of revenue growth over the past 10 years
it was literally growing at
50% year over year for many years
so those people who
were betting their shirts that
you know tesla is overvalued and uh shorting tesla between you know whatever 2018 19 20 21
they were wrong because tesla was like literally growing super fast all the financials were
pointing in the right direction and they were comparing it to automakers that were growing or not growing and getting you know under one-time revenue valuation and Tesla
up until late 2019 was getting two and a half times revenue multiples but for a company that
was growing at 50% annually that was was just ridiculous. Because when you sort of like did the math and projected for three, four more years, it was obvious that it was like it cannot be sustained at this stock price.
Whereas today…
My point is it's never really been about the math for the bulls.
I'm just speaking for the bulls.
You said, what's the case for the Tesla permabulls?
But what I'm saying is, but I'm saying the math supported the bull case back then
and it no longer does.
That's the difference.
But yeah, you're right that the permabulls didn't care.
But yeah, I don't think the permabulls
were going on the math case.
Maybe, again, maybe like a broken clock, it was right.
They're always, they'll tell you now,
Tesla's not a car company, right?
What's that thing that's going around?
Like, we'll forget someday that Tesla ever made cars. That is the permabull case. It's not a car company. What's that thing that's going around? We'll forget someday
that Tesla ever made cars. That is the permeable case. It's not logical. I'm not saying it's based
in fact, but that's the way they always look at it. They're always looking at the expectations
and what this company could have, what it's going to do, what its ultimate goal will be.
It's a religion to some extent. All right, I'm in agreement with that.
I do see, so we do have a new Stock Talk pick,
which will be coming up.
I might go over to Wolfie first, hear your thoughts,
and then we'll maybe focus in on you in a little bit
in the second half as well.
But new Stock Talk pick coming up before the close.
I appreciate everyone for hanging out
with us today a couple earnings seagate texas instruments but it's really a magnificent seven
day coming up tomorrow also jerome powell day earning season is we're in the thick of it i
appreciate everyone for hanging out with us today wolfie how are you doing sir you got any thoughts
on this uh this tesla conversation that they're having there any of these other major earnings
that you were watching coming up tomorrow
morning, tomorrow afternoon that you
are excited about?
I mean this as politely as possible.
I think there's so much wasted
brain capital on Tesla.
I feel like whenever the narrative for the
next move happens, we'll
know what the narrative is and then we'll
trade that narrative.
Like,
you know, and this is not like I'll trade that narrative like i like like um i you know and
this is not like like i like i agree with everything both sides have said like i agree with
him when i owned tesla i owned tesla in 2013 it was like a year-on-year story it was like a
a problem for them having a mass market vehicle in 2019 and a cash burn problem and elon might
get called and then it wasn't and then it was just just a very easy thing. And I agree with Brian.
It's like a cult thing and it's a robotics play.
It's a tech play.
It's a whatever play.
But I don't have any thoughts outside of that.
They're both right.
But as far as the stock's concerned, it's not going to matter until it matters.
The one thing that I didn't hear, but maybe I'll throw in there is the SpaceX IPO, right?
Like there's a SpaceXo coming around the corner
it's going to be large ipo it's an elon thing he wants the largest ipo whenever that's that starts
going it could it could create a tailwind for tesla and some of these other space things but
particularly tesla because you know the piggy bank for tesla tapping that piggy bank won't be as
stressful for that stock because there's gonna be a bigger a big one as well uh or or the biggest ipo as well so there'll be a little bit of flexibility there uh and then
there's probably like some some you know there's a key man risk that we've talked about before but
in this case it'd be like a keyman uh tailwind right like anything elon touches those goes to
gold and they'll probably gamma it that way um as far as like all the other earnings and things like
that last time i talked to you,
I told you that I did you a solid and I went long Apple.
Didn't expect to see the Claude Bot Tailwind happen over the weekend,
but hey, I'll freaking take it.
Yesterday held a space, you know, I hold space pretty much every day,
but yesterday held a space and had the Razor Akram on.
And we talked about the Claude Bottil and specifically, you know, he's really, if you don't follow him at the Razor, you can find him in my thing.
Really good follow, 25 years plus of experience in the industry, really knows his hardware, software stuff, especially in tech.
And, you know know pretty plugged in across
the board on on you know software side in particular um talks to people in the instilled
is the old-fashioned talk to to people in the industry check comps all that stuff but um he
keyed he keyed us on some stuff yesterday particularly uh you know a cloud flare uh and uh digital ocean about having like
you know also having tailwinds on the back of people having the agentic thing i don't own any
digital ocean i'm just kind of giving you guys like a little bit of a play-by-play what was
talked about i do i did i did buy some net on the back of it worked out really well but this is not
like a one-day event type of thing.
Obviously, there's going to be like, fits and starts as people start to get their own agents
and then not have their agents and then figure it out and not figure it out. But you know,
the idea is as more and more compute goes online, and more and more people have more and more agents,
and those agents have agents and, you know, those layers have have layers these types of names and these types of stocks
are set to benefit from a security standpoint from a growth standpoint from a computer standpoint
et cetera et cetera um you know the last time i was on i talked about uh you know we we talked
about in general in this room all of last year most of last year about like second third order
of the ai trade stock tax was correct on the Amcor stuff.
I mentioned that that's kind of like
how you have to think of it.
This is a real life example of it, right?
Like that's not Amcor.
Amcor is packaging obviously,
but this is like a real life example of like,
you know, people now need a different way
to use some of this computing power.
And as they do, some of these things are set to win.
There's still a lot of names that are like pretty,
I don't want to say distressed,
but like trading cheaply, kind of left for dead some of them.
You know, one of the faves that gets talked about a lot in this space
that they're just, in my opinion,
kind of like one headline away is GitLab, right?
GitLab still trading pretty cheap.
You saw last week, it just kind of got a spike, caught a bit and got a spike.
You know, I just feel like at some point there's one or two deals away.
Another one that kind of popped yesterday that I found interesting was Zoom.
And Zoom popped on the back of an anthropic investment
they allegedly bought 1.2 of anthropics series c that equates to about a four billion dollar
tailwind for the stock so they have you know uh they have an investment a direct investment into
one of the major ai players it's great for them so like you know when when i'm when i'm thinking
about ai i'm thinking about some of the stuff that i'm constantly thinking about like second third order um from some of the earnings
uh on the back of that like obviously seagate people want to pay attention to seagate you look
at some of these uh some of these memory names some of these dram names they've they've gone
up into the right and some of them not even to the right just straight up and so you any any kind of chink in
that armor uh could spook some things but that said i don't i don't necessarily think that we're
going to get anything material you know that that might be like the fatal thing that i say right and
then tomorrow it's down 30 who the hell knows but as long as they don't you know spook spook the
market you know you you also have Sandisk later in the week.
These things are probably just sloshed around through the earnings period itself.
And then the story kind of marinades again, and then it re-rates again. So that's kind of like from the AI stuff, that whole thing.
That's kind of what I'm looking at.
But the third order that I'm looking at is there's names like SAP, for example.
SAP has earnings on Thursday.
Names like that don't get talked about enough on a potential of cutting their costs, right?
Just from the headcount alone, being able to cut costs and have like that be a
creative to their business. I don't know when that will happen. Right. But once once some of
these companies start to implore some of these tools and actually have them benefit their
business, you're going to get a situation where one of these days you see you see these like this
company or these companies ripping, you know, 15, 20% on the back of an earnings
because of like an upside surprise people didn't expect in part because of their costs being cut.
Obviously, tomorrow Fed as well. So like elephant in the room, see what happens. Obviously,
we're not really expecting too much. The language is going to be the important part, especially this will be the first
Powell, the first Powell like words that we're going to get written or otherwise.
After the video that we got where he came out and said that the government did an investigation,
I don't, I don't, I don't think that, I think he's – I've been asked on this platform, whether being at it or in a space a couple times now, like, what do you think he's going to do?
I think Powell's going to be professional.
Like, that's kind of how he's been.
I don't think he's going to be vindictive or anything like that.
I think he'll just keep it professional.
Now, what the Fed decides ultimately or what they hinge their words on, on that's gonna be important but i think they'll be professional and then the last thing
um you know there's general dynamics got earnings and uh this is just in the next day or two general
dynamics has earnings you want to pay attention on the back of any of the uh aviation and defense
spend if there's any tailwinds there just just for the sector in general. And then Starbucks has earnings as well.
There's a China read-through on Starbucks, but more importantly, China's doing a back
to Starbucks basic.
They're just focusing on their core brand and things like that.
So who knows if they're able to figure that side out.
I do want to be mindful of time.
I know you said Stock Talk's got a pick
that he wants to share with people,
so I'll stop there.
Yeah, that was perfect, Wolfie.
I hope you stick with us.
I got some extra things we'll circle back on you.
Everyone should make sure
that you are following the speakers up here.
They're fantastic.
Shout out to Wolfie, Brian Lunds, Hamid, Stock Stampa,
of course Stock Talk,
who's about to give us a new pick that he gave in the group.
And then if you enjoy live free conversations,
earning season is back.
Make sure you're following in this account, the host of this space is.
I seem to get StockMarketing's account back up here.
But StockTalk, talk us through it.
What is the new play on the radar today?
So, yeah, you guys know I'm a thematic,
thematic trader and investor.
So, you know, there are new themes that get added
to the portfolio pretty regularly.
This year, Greenland is really the first one.
Well, I don't want to say the first one
because we did pick up some edge AI
and inference stocks, synaptics,
and, you know, we already have OSS.
So it's not the first new theme, but it is one that I'm building a basket around right now.
The first position I talked to you guys about last week, which was a shipping stock,
an Arctic shipping stock, which is Pangea Logistics, ticker P-A-N-L.
If you guys missed that episode last week,
you can go listen to my thesis on it. But essentially, they possess 10 ICE class 1A carriers, makes up 30% of their fleet. It is, in my view, the only mid-cap shipping stock that has
a very direct weighting to activity in the Arctic. In their last earnings
report, they talked about the Arctic shipping lanes opening up and how that was driving activity
for them. Ice class 1A vessels are rare in the United States. The only other mid-cap shipping
stock in the country that possesses them is CBMT, and they possess 1C vessels, which can't operate
in the Arctic. You need 1A vessels. So I shared that whole thesis last week and go check it out. But, um, that's the, one of the
stocks in the basket. And, you know, um, I'm still holding that one, but I added another stock today
to the basket and it's a little bit of a different angle. Uh, it's not a shipping commercial angle
on Greenland instead of a metals, and that's critical metals,
ticker CRML. Now, there's no business here. It is just a sentiment-driven stock, but
they do possess one of the two major rare earth deposits in Greenland. There's only two
significant deposits, and they possess one of the two. So one of them is Kavangafield. I don't even know
if I'm pronouncing that correct. Kavangafield. And the other one is Tanbreeze. And so Critical
Metals owns Tanbreeze. And over the last six months or so, they've been securing offtake
agreements. But last week, they secured an offtake agreement that I think was more significant.
They secured an offtake agreement with the Saudis and a very specific Saudi firm that has worked with the Trump family frequently. And that I think is a direct
sort of nod to their involvement in the greater Greenland project. Trump in his NATO speech sort
of dismissed the idea of the US wanting rare earths from Greenland. I don't believe that for a second. I don't think the market does either.
This will, I think, or has a good shot
to become the sort of sentiment play
around Greenland activity.
It's arguably the most directly linked
to the country in terms of U.S. interests.
I mean, it's a U.S. company that owns
one of the two major deposits.
So pretty straightforward, not a big, long, detailed thesis here.
I think the chart is really, really strong.
I mean, this thing has climbed the 9 EMA to the upside for the last month or so.
It's up quite a bit in the last month, but I don't really worry about looking left on
these types of sentiment-driven momentum plays because to me, you know, the technical structure
matters a lot more on trades like that.
So I think it's pretty straightforward here.
They have 100% of their offtake agreed to by parties, including the Saudis, including the Qataris, and including other American companies.
Those are all very, very tightly linked parties to the administration.
They possess one of the only two deposits.
It's just a straightforward play on Greenland sentiment.
So I added that one today.
There is a third and fourth Greenland stock that I'm looking at that I may add this week or next week.
I'm just waiting for the right entry, the right technical setup to enter on.
So I'm planning on building this basket to four or five positions.
Like I said, currently it's just Pangea Logistics, PANL, and then Critical Metals, CRML.
But this is a thematic basket based on the sentiment around Greenland.
I think the cool thing about both of these plays is that neither of them depend on military action.
Neither of them depend on an additional U.S. base.
They both just benefit from increased
activity in Greenland, period. And that I like to try to get plays that have a fail safe like that
in case, you know, there are headlines that sort of muck up the story or whatever the case may be.
And I think both of these have that fail safe where they're just direct beneficiaries of activity
in the Arctic and activity around Greenland, whether or not that's American activity. So, yeah, I like both of these as thematic trades.
And like I said, there's probably one or two additional names added to that basket as well.
But I like the charts on both of them.
I like the stories on both of them.
I like the narrative.
You know, the market, I think, is pointing out both of them as beneficiaries of this.
So I think Pangea Logistics is probably a little bit lesser known,
obviously, of the two.
I don't see as many people talking about that one.
Critical Metals, a lot of people talk about that name.
You know, I've traded in the past as well.
I even scalped it last week.
So, you know, I'm familiar with the ticker.
But, yeah, I like it as a sort of sentiment play on this entire Greenland thing.
However, it resolves itself, and I don't know what the details will be,
but I'm trying to find stocks that will benefit from it,
regardless of what the exact details of the U.S. cooperation in Greenland are,
and I think both of these stocks win either way.
So, yeah, that's sort of the thesis in a nutshell.
Didn't need as much time on that one as I normally do.
Cause I usually have a little bit more of a detailed thesis,
but this one I think is a pretty straightforward proposition on getting
exposure to the Island.
How big do you plan to make your exposure for this kind of the segment of
Like how big the batik baskets can get up to 20% of the portfolio at a given time.
Is this more of this seems like more of like a trade though on some of the other stuff?
Or do you kind of see?
No, I mean, defining it as a trade is odd because like I don't trade anything for a week.
You know, it's not there's nothing that's like a really a short term trade for me, but yeah, I mean, they're not core positions in the portfolio or anything that I plan to hold for years and years, but I am playing the sentiment around the thematic. I think,
you know, there's, there's different purposes, different positions in my portfolio. Like some
of them are core positions. I notate those as like, you know, core positions when I share the
portfolio updates in our community, or some of them are, you know, legacy positions that I've owned for a long time, like Tesla and
Amazon and Robinhood, which I'm not selling either way because the cost-based advantages are so deep.
So it just depends on when I bought the stock, why I bought it, what the intention was, you know,
what my cost-based advantages and all those things play a factor in that. But I mean, these are
newly opened stocks, you know, I mean, these are newly opened stocks.
You know, I mean, I opened up Pangea last week,
and then I opened up Crickle Metals today.
So, yeah, they're new stocks.
I mean, I respond to what happens in the market, you know,
as themes become stronger or weaker.
I respond to that.
I don't just, like, I'm not an idle bystander with a portfolio.
I am actively managing it.
But, yeah, I mean, I like both the both the stocks obviously how big could the basket be
um i mean right now the basket's about nine percent of the portfolio between those two
positions critical medical metals about a five percent position pan geo logistics is also about
a five percent position so actually close to ten percent so um it could get to 15 18 of the
portfolio at a given time i mean it just depends and it also depends
if those other two stocks that i'm looking at present a technically satisfying entry if they
don't then i just won't buy them like i don't i don't really get fomo anymore about stocks that
like rip without me it's like there's plenty of plenty of fish in the sea like i don't it doesn't
really bother me so yeah i'm not i don't i'm not gonna chase stuff
but there are other stocks that i want to own the basket so yeah the basket will probably expand and
waiting um at a certain point you know maybe on the next pullback in these types of names or
whatever but um it is a theme that i want direct exposure to for probably the duration of this year
if not longer um so i plan to hold these for a while
that makes sense that makes sense I think it also says something that you're
building out the basket here in general your thoughts are on the theme and if
people aren't already investigating around this what areas maybe they should
be yeah I mean I just try to do like really thematically specific research and then find very specific stocks that benefit from exactly what I am trying to play.
That's like kind of my MO.
And so sometimes, you know, like people won't really get it at first.
Like the same thing with Amcor last year or Inersis or all these stocks that have gone on insane runs.
or a nurses or all these stocks that have gone on insane runs like people don't get it at first
Like people don't get it at first.
and then when the market picks up on the story and understands the relevance and understands
the connection then you start to see real multiple expansion you see it quickly
um and so that's kind of what i try to play i play multiple expansion
more than i play earnings growth far more and sometimes there are stories where those two
things overlap right like? Like I expect
multiple expansion because of thematic relevance, but I also expect earnings growth because the
company's going to benefit directly from a given theme. So sometimes it overlaps, but more often
than not, I'm looking for reasons for a multiple to expand and then justifying them with really,
really specific research as to why that stock is relevant to
a theme. I mean, like this happens every year and like some of the best performing stocks in the
market are a product of it. I mean, if you look at the last two or three years, you look at
the quantum industry, the space and satellite industry, the rare metals industry, the nuclear
industry, I might go on and on. I can name 10 themes
in which stocks have gone up three to 500 percent for no reason, for no company specific reason.
Right. That's multiple expansion. And it's not a little move. It's big moves. I mean,
stocks have three, many, many stocks have three to five x some more uh in all of those themes and they did
it on the back not of earnings growth but of multiple expansions simply interest in a sector
picking up to me that is the best way to make money in markets like i mean a lot of people have
different styles but the single best way to make money in markets, in my opinion, is understanding where the ball is going and understanding where like corporate interest and public interest and government policy interest is moving and just following it. long shipbuilders or to be long, um, any specialized aerospace and defense company or
like any of these drones, any of these stocks, which are all up hundreds and hundreds of percent
in just a year, let alone two or three. I mean, some of these are up thousands of percent if you
look back two or three years. Um, like it didn't take a genius to know that any of those areas
were investable. There was being spoken to you from the president of the United States, from corporate interests, at CES.
I mean, like, the list goes on.
Sometimes it's just a really obvious trade that's sitting in front of you.
And the reason that people don't make money on it is because they're just not willing to capitalize on it because it seems too obvious.
And I like to make money on obvious stuff.
You know, I don't see a problem with it.
I'm not in the camp of like, I have to be in the super contrarian, like, I have to write
a 25-page thesis to justify why I own the stock to myself.
Like, that's not the type of trades I take.
I take things that, you know, I do a lot of research, but at the end of the day, my thesis
can usually be communicated in a few paragraphs because it's a very specific thing that I'm looking for.
And if I find that thing and all the other boxes are fine, the valuation is reasonable.
The company's growing.
You know, there's no serious debt problems.
The chart looks nice.
If all those boxes are checked, so sort of the safety boxes, if you will, then I'm buying it.
You know, and more often than not, it works out. I mean, my performance speaks for itself. So yeah, I just lean on what I've done
for a long time, which has worked for a long time. I mean, this is going to be, I'm going on 15 years
in the market now, and I'm a pretty young guy. I've done it for my entire adult life. Like this,
all I know is just stocks, themes, rotations.
It's just instinctual to me at this point.
So I really just don't get stressed out.
And I mean, obviously the performance this year is insane for the first month.
I mean, I'm already up 52% year to date.
I'm not, I hope I'm not jinxing it, but better pace than I was at even last year when I did 505%. So I, my strategy is working.
I don't see a reason to change anything until, you know,
don't fix it until it's broke or whatever people say.
And it's not broken.
So I'm just going to keep doing what I'm doing, finding these themes,
finding stocks that I think are obvious exposures,
and then just riding them till I'm satisfied.
until I'm satisfied.
So, yep, that's the game plan for this year as well.
Yep, that's the game plan for this year as well.
I appreciate the thoughts there.
Before I throw it around and pick on people,
is there anyone who wants to jump in on this theme at all?
Talking Greenland a little bit.
CRML.
I'm sure there were some questions about what the ticker was
that he just brought up.
Critical Metals Corp, CRML.
What was the other one?
Pangeal or Penguin?
Pangeal Logistics, P-A-N-L.
Got it.
Yeah, it's shipping stock, trades about one times book, 0.9 times sales, growing pretty quickly, 15 to 20%.
And, yeah, I mean, when you look at Pangea, the thing that's interesting
there is just the leverage they have into the Arctic angle, because 30% of their fleet is
ice class 1A. I talked about this when I shared the original Pangea logistics thesis, but you can
go back and listen to the recording if you want. But for those that don't want to do that, just
type in ice class 1A, 1B, 1C vessels, explain, vessels explain type that into your llm and it'll explain
it to you but ice class 1a vessels are the most capable and there are no smid cap stocks in the
united states that possess more ice class vessels than pangia does and there are none that possess
nearly the proportion of fleet that they do so 30 percent of their fleet is ice class 1a vessels
that's a huge composition of their fleet right
and so the the benefits to those what ice class 1a vessels higher rates ability to operate in
arctic shipping routes which are newly opening up is it gives them a unique edge against other
similar size shippers and if there is benefit from the Arctic activity to those ships, which is almost like it's almost impossible that there won't be, especially considering the momentum that they already showed in the Arctic last quarter.
That's just a direct beneficiary.
And like ships moving through newly formed Arctic sea lanes need to use ice class 1A vessels, period.
class 1A vessels, period. And there are not a lot in the United States. And the ones that are there,
And there are not a lot in the United States.
like the companies that do possess them, have a very, very overtly diversified business, right?
They have all sorts of ships. So for most of the other comps I looked at, the ice class 1A vessels
were making up 5%, 6% of the fleet, 7% of the fleet. For Pangea, it's 30% of the fleet. So they are specialized to do this. And
proof of that is that they're the only US company, somebody was trying to fight with me about this
on Twitter as if I don't do my research. People were like, oh, there's a lot of ports in Greenland.
Yeah, no shit. But the ports in Greenland are owned by Denmark and Greenland, not by the United
States. The only US commercial port to ever have been built in Greenland, not by the United States. The only U.S. commercial port to ever
have been built in Greenland was built by Pangea Logistics, and they shipped a dry bulk load there.
They talk about it in their two earnings reports ago or three earnings reports ago,
they talked about it. They said, hey, we're the only company to have ever built a temporary dry
bulk cargo port on Greenland, the only U.S. company to have ever done it, and they shipped a shipment
there too. So that to me speaks to capabilities, logistical expertise, a high proportion of Class 1A vessels.
Like, if activity picks up in the Arctic, U.S. military activity or commercial activity or
activity of any kind, you need more cargo in the Arctic. And also, even if you don't think
anything's going to happen in Greenland, which is kind of an insane thing to think, but even if you think, let's say nothing happens in Greenland
for a year, no more activity, no more U.S. bases, no more European bases, the Arctic lanes are still
opening up regardless. Like, no matter what, that's not going to prevent the U.S. activity in
Greenland. It's not going to prevent the Arctic shipping lanes from opening up. They are still
opening up and only ice class 1A vessels can operate there.
So that's just like kind of the simplest way to think about that company.
But yeah, I think it's very interesting.
Obviously, it's a small cap, so it'll be volatile.
But it's one of two small caps in my whole portfolio.
I have 18 positions.
The only two small caps I have are Pangea Logistics and OSS.
So yeah, I mean, I think that there's a real story there. And I think that there's real potential earnings benefit there. positions the only two small caps i have are pangea logistics and oss so yeah i mean i think
that there's a real story there and i think that there's real potential earnings benefit there
perhaps more immediately than there will be for any other greenland associated plays because
people are going to start shipping through those routes more and more frequently as the routes open
up and you need that you need a very specific type of vessel to operate in the Arctic commercially
so yeah I hope that
makes some sense I guess
I need
I think we still might have you
what's up
I know you're I don't know if you heard stock
talks kind of thesis there a little bit on this
one I think you have some you have maybe certain areas in tech that you enjoy doing into,
but you'll branch out into other parts of the market.
Obviously, the new theme that Stock Talk is talking about here
is around this Greenland theme, logistics and minerals and all that stuff.
I'm curious.
I know you can see you share your portfolio publicly,
so I know you don't have
any of that stuff in there but is it an area that you've looked at and been interested in at all
curious if you have any thoughts or questions towards stock talks theme you can ask some
questions here around how you find new themes in general but yeah yeah no no i'm i'm not a thematic
uh investor i feel like you have to pay too much attention in order to know when to enter and when
to exit. And I think StockTalk does a great job of doing his research and being on top of it.
And I don't. So I want to sort of like invest in companies that I love and think they're going to
do well long term. And if I forget about it, or if I go on vacation for a couple months,
I don't need to worry about what I hold. I can just come back and decide what to do.
And in most cases, it's like, oh, I'll continue to hold everything I hold. But yeah, no, I'm not
very much of a commodities investor. That's one of the reasons that this whole copper thing for example is is uninteresting to me um it's not in my wheelhouse and um uh like to me there's like
simpler ways to make money now there you know like if you're paying a lot of attention you
might be able to make more money maybe but uh but i'm doing fine that's the way I look at it.
I'll go back to that comment of Stock Talk.
If it's not broken, don't fix it type of thing.
Last year, I had 100% year-over-year increase.
I think Stock Talk had 500%, so awesome.
But I feel like 100% is pretty damn good. good i'll stick to that if i could do that
a couple more times that would be absolutely insane yeah it just depends on how many gray
hairs you're willing to trade you're right about that yeah because it does take a lot of work i
agree with that um i think and for most people it's probably better to just do things the way
that hamid does it and you know just be a little bit more passive so that, you know,
you don't have to do research every week like I do.
But, yeah, I mean, it is more intensive, certainly.
You know, it's not an easy process.
It's simple, but it's not easy.
I want to throw it back over to Mr. Wolfie I think we still have you
it's all I did
it's all I did
you watching this Greenland
you know
thing play out at all
you taking any trades around it
got any thoughts on the thesis?
I don't care about the Greenland stuff.
I mean, the thesis is the thesis.
I'm saying just the Greenland stuff
I don't really have any interest in.
I think that
the groundwork
for Greenland is to see if everybody's got their house
in order. I think you're going to a multipolar
world.
Or at least there's a battle for multipolarity.
And I think Hamid said he has his way. Stocktalk says he has his way. Stocktalk's thematic.
I'm kind of like a blend. So yeah, I pay attention to Greenland just as far as what, what, what can I, what is,
what is it that I'm going to interpret from?
I don't try to like find an investment personally. I'm not trying to find an investment on the back of Greenland for me,
like the investment on the back of the Greenland stuff is there,
there's going to be just like more of a flight to who owns more of the hard assets and then who and then just
a defense spend so that everybody kind of has their house in order um that's that's more of
what i'm looking at but like there's other things right like uh like i do think you gotta pay
attention unfortunately you gotta pay attention to, you know,
some of the second or third order events that happen on the back of this.
So, like, take a look at the dollar, for example.
While you guys were talking, Trump came out and made comments about the dollar.
Yeah, I'm seeing this quote.
He's saying that he's loving the way it's moving.
He's a fan of it.
It's doing well.
Yeah, he's doing well wonderful move
by the way Wolfie I apologize
the dollar is great
four year lows
we're getting a lot of earnings out right now
as well
it's like a yo-yo
I move it where I want
it's an actual quote
yeah it's literally what he said the dollar puked
on the back of it we just broke an 11 year trend line i don't know if that's capitulation wait he
said the dollar's like a yo-yo i move it where i want direct quote direct direct quote today
yes yes you were talking what the fuck so No way, dude.
Yeah.
That is a crazy thing to say.
Yeah.
And they said, okay, cool.
Puke it.
Yeah.
I wasn't freestyling the yo-yo part.
That was a direct quote.
No, literally.
Yeah.
That's a great thing to say. I could be taken both ways.
That's a great thing to say ahead of his bed chair appointment.
Like, come on, dude.
Yeah.
So, broken 11-year uptrend
by the way on the back of that comment i don't know if that's capitulation or not i hope it is
um bitcoin broke an uptrend no no dixie dixie broke an uptrend then you said bitcoin i was
like what uptrend yeah no no i'm not a bitcoiner sir uh i know that i know that my point my point about
bringing that up is like i try not to get too caught up in like whatever the current thing is
because i i don't have personally i don't have the bandwidth right like uh i i'm kind of like an
in-between but the the main thing in my opinion opinion, is all of this chaos or this new order or whatever
is going to cause more countries
to kind of get their shit in order, right?
So some of the themes on the back of it
are, you know, like defense spending,
you know, build up your own infrastructure,
stuff like that.
And there's common themes throughout that
that run
parallel and together. So like some of it might be like some of these bottlenecked mineral plays,
lithium, for example, nickels, another one people talk about, copper is one that's been popularized
the last couple of days. So just things like that that are general enough, but also can have,
you know, a little bit of a squeeze on the back of some of the granular stuff like Greenland.
Now, for earnings, you were talking about earnings. F5 beat by 79 cents, beat on revs. Q2 in line, revs above consensus, full year above consensus.
Next Power beat by $0.16, beat on revs, full year 26 above consensus, revs in line, approved share, repurchase program up to $500 million.
Last I checked, that stock was up 11%.
Seagate beat by $0.28, beat on revenues, Q3 above consensus, revs above consensus.
But like we said before it happened, these stocks have moved so much,
the stock's not doing anything.
But pretty solid, just from a headline perspective.
And then the last one was Quervo.
Quervo beat by 31 cents,
which is really surprising, you'd think,
but they issued downside guidance for Q4.
They see EPS of $1.05 to $1.35 versus $1.37 expected,
and that really sent the stock lower. EPS of $1.05 to $1.35 versus $1.37 expected.
And that really sent the stock lower.
But yeah, like Ayo-Yo,
back to you.
I was trying to listen to the quote.
It sounds like
he's alluding to
the U.S. taking on Chinese policy of attempting to weaken their own currency.
That's what he's literally saying here.
No, I think it's great.
I mean, the value of the dollar.
Look at the business window.
Dollar's doing great.
You know, it's very interesting.
If you look at China and Japan, I used to fight like hell with them
because they always wanted to devalue their yen.
You know that?
The yen and the yuan.
And they'd always want to devalue it.
They devalue, devalue, devalue.
And I said, not fair that you devalue
because it's hard to compete when they devalue.
But they always fought.
No, our dollar is very good.
That's an odd comment.
It's odd to bring that up.
You know what I mean?
I just, I don't know.
I didn't hear the yo-yo part, really, on that one.
I didn't hear the yo-yo part either.
But, like, he's...
But the point...
Forget the yo-yo part.
The point is that he brought that up.
I don't know why he brought that up.
That video I sent you, it's like 12 seconds in where he says yo-yo
okay well forget the yo-yo part
why is everyone upset with the yo-yo part what i'm saying is is that because it's a wild comment
no no no it's wild no no this is more wild because he's a loot the yo-yo part just implies
that he's saying he's going to play with the dollar but now he's alluding the yo-yo part just implies that he's saying he's gonna play
with the dollar but now he's alluding to intentional currency manipulation which is what the chinese
and the japanese have done for decades so that's what he's alluding to there he's like i used to
get mad at them that implies that he's saying like oh i realized that there's a strategy there
that's what the implicate why would somebody says i used to get mad, they're implying that they're not mad anymore about it, which
is, that's an odd thing to say, because we should not do that. I know everyone's like,
right now is like, oh, that's just gonna make, you know, US assets go on a face ripper in
the summer. Yeah, like maybe, maybe the idea of that would create you know a surge
for hard assets but you don't want to actually do that in practice like if the dollar naturally is
soft for a cycle in like a major bull cycle like we're in now that's okay that's just gas on the
stove but like if you start to intentionally manipulate the dollar, then there is a cascade effect in other markets.
Intentionally manipulating the dollar is, in theory, like artificial stimulus for other assets.
Right?
Like, if you're, if the dollar is just softening on its own through the course of of the market then that's one thing but
if you are helping accelerate or like China has done outright manipulating the currency to the
downside then that has reverberations in the import export business it has reverberations
of manufacturing business it has reverberations in stock prices it has reverberations and
spending power and all of that is directly economically relevant. So that's a dangerous, it's a slippery slope.
I don't like that comment.
Yeah, that's absolutely right.
And since yesterday, the dollar just against euro has already gone down.
Like one euro gets you a than $1.20 today.
And yesterday, it got you like $1.18 and some change.
So it's like more than 1% move in one day,
which is kind of crazy for a currency.
And just in the past week,
it's $1.16 versus over $1.20 today.
Anything that comes from Europe basically just became like 4% more expensive
just in the past week.
Yeah, the peso just today alone,
1.3% move to the downside against the U.S. dollar.
It's crazy.
I mean, obviously that one hits home,
but we also do a lot of business obviously with Mexico.
So that's very interesting to see.
This week it's down over a percent and a half in two days.
So a trip for us to Europe.
Oh, I forgot to mention this.
Before we continue, I forgot to mention this.
I did buy some GME calls today.
I did buy some GME calls today i did buy some gme calls today which is crazy good god is the top end for the whole market
no i did dude i read i read burry's sub stack and he made some decent points
and the chart is nice so you know i was like let's see if we can get a 200 day breakout here but i
did i wanted to mention that but very very small very small size, like 0.46% of the portfolio, like very, very small size.
But yeah, I did. I did do that for March expiry, the 24th. Just wanted to mention that because I
I didn't want to skate past that.
didn't want to skate past that. And because of all the shit I talk about in meme stocks,
Because of all the shit I talk about in meme stocks,
I didn't want people to be like,
oh, he doesn't want to say that.
But I did.
Very, very small speculative thing.
But yeah, I did.
Interesting.
All right.
Well, this is what happens when you're up 60% in the first month.
Yeah, right.
Maybe I'm shooting loose arrows now.
That might be the issue. what was burry's thesis i really didn't see it much was there any one or two parts that stood out um i mean to me his real
argument was just that they have optionality and that despite all the craziness with the stock
ryan cohen has diamond ends it.
And that both of those things are true.
And so he thinks that there is enough optionality here, enough cash to make plays and transform the business.
And I don't know whether I believe that or not, but I think it's not a bad thesis.
And the stock is not insanely cheap.
I mean, sorry, not insanely expensive or anything.
You know, it's like a very,
pretty reasonably priced stock to be honest.
And obviously the core business is just,
you know, useless.
But is there a world
where the stock could expand its multiple a little bit?
Yeah, I think there is.
And I think the most interesting thing about this
is this is a meme stock.
It has been a meme stock for so long. And I think the business sucks. I want to be absolutely clear meme stock. It has been a meme stock for so long.
And I think the business sucks.
I want to be absolutely clear about that.
Like, it is just a trade for me, right?
I just have March calls.
I don't have any shares or anything.
But the interesting thing to me is that there is – this is, like, one of the first instances I've seen where, like, a real meme stock, like maybe the meme stock, meme stock has been endorsed by like a guy that's not a meme guy at all and that and and i know he's owned it
in the past and he's traded in the past but like the way he talked about it in the new piece is is
the language and the tone he used was different so dude at the end of the day it's a gamble it's a
very very small it's like the smallest position in my portfolio by far.
It's just I got some calls, you know.
And I'm not even holding them through earnings.
They're like the calls before earnings.
I probably should have bought the ones after just to get the IV push, but whatever.
Either way, I'm not holding them through earnings.
So it's just like a play and a run up into earnings in the March and see if I can get some momentum on him.
That's really all it is.
It's not like I'm not committing to the company or anything.
But he made an interesting argument.
And the fact that it's a meme stock,
could it make a move?
Yeah, I think it could make a move.
That's really all it is.
That's not like a...
I didn't give it a lot of thought.
Yeah, that seems like the
best way to go on these meme stocks.
Was that you, Ryan?
Oh, nothing.
Go ahead. Your comment's
pretty good.
That does seem to be the thesis
amc next question mark
yeah win silver treasury
if you told me wolfie was in gamestop as well right now i wouldn't be surprised
nope
really
do not come
doesn't that make you want to come Really? Do not come. Yeah.
Doesn't that make you want to come?
To quote Kamala Harris, do not come.
I don't see what the story is on GameStop.
They were doing the Bitcoin.
They're not doing the Bitcoin.
They're buying their shares.
The core business is deteriorated.
I don't see a story. Trust me. It's not a vote of confidence in the business at all yeah at all oh you're trading it yeah yeah it's
just okay cool yeah no you're doing like a leverage thing yeah i don't know for me like
even on the leverage front i just need to understand like like like for me i just need
to understand some what the story is there's not an overwhelming amount of leverage in the business.
There's not an unsustainable amount of leverage in the business.
And I think that's really what the birdie's point is, is that at the end of the day, the core business is definitely not the play.
And he doesn't think that – I don't think he thinks that Ryan Cohen thinks that's the play either.
I don't think he thinks that Ryan Cohen thinks that's the play either.
They're going to attempt to transform the company in some way with the money that they have
and a young Ryan Cohen who, whatever you think of him, is a smart guy
and for some reason has stood by the stock.
Now, I'm not going to be there for that to play out,
but do I think that that can get more widely acknowledged?
And do I think the chart is nice, pinching into the 200-day here?
Yeah.
So that's really all it is.
A lot of plays coming in.
It's January.
It's a very different time than the end of the year.
It seems to be. I take a lot of new positions in q1 i do this every year um some are little lotto arrows like
that some are you know bigger positions but i deploy a lot of cash in in q1 every year because
i'm throwing darts you know i'm seeing what sticks what I'm going to stick with into Q2, Q3, Q4,
what I'm not.
That's what I do.
So part of that process is opening a variety of new positions.
I'll probably open several more in the next two months.
I don't want to say several, but, you know, four or five more probably.
So, yeah, I mean, that's, to me, that's how I've always just done well in markets is by, like, finding themes that I think can work,
trying to find one or two stocks or three stocks in the theme that I think have a reason to go up,
buying them, and then riding with the ones that prove to me that they're executing on that thesis and the
ones that don't i sell them right if their management team sucks or if for some reason
they can't capitalize on the opportunity or if they have some sort of share structure issue or
they're constantly doing offerings or whatever the case may be like there can be things that
variety of things that turn me off from a stock but that's really what i do i find a theme do a lot of research on the
theme and the industry related to the theme then try to pick two or three stocks and then narrow
them down based on their own performance not my judgment of them but their own performance and
that that's been like a pretty great strategy for me many years, and that's just what I stick to.
Logical, you got any thoughts you want to jump in?
I don't know if you heard the Critical Metals take, CRML,
if that's a stock you looked into before.
And then we got the GME, the GameStop,
if you're in the meme craze as well.
CRML, I mean, all these rare stocks are obviously interesting.
I think clearly being aligned with Trump policies.
I think Stock Talks nailed a lot of those different themes, whether it's drone or reshoring,
and then obviously rare earth.
My problem is with the rare earth stuff specifically is like it's for sure out of my
circle of competence i just don't feel that comfortable like trying to pick between i don't
know man i don't even know what i can't even pronounce most of these critical minerals and
i mean look it's a very simple thesis is that like you need to get more, you know, rare earth and rare earth refineries or whatever here versus abroad.
So, you know, I think generally speaking, I don't know.
I didn't hear the CRML pitch specifically, but they're all some sort of variation of that kind of simple thing.
So that makes sense. But I've just realized that every single time I try to dabble in sectors or industries that are not something that I've well researched.
I think there's some people on here, many of us have been posting on Twitter for years now.
And you can tell when someone has a specific sector that they've over time become, over time become more comfortable with and they've just come to understand
that like, for me, like I've definitely understood, you know,
the bios and that's what I talk about a lot. Um, so I've, you know,
I have naturally a higher allocation to that. There's, you know,
people like mystic who's an analyst on stock talks, discord.
He's really good on, uh, defense on defense or drones or, you know, these kind of,
like, niche small cap tech stocks or even, you know, some of this. Yeah, I mean, I think even
he has looked into rare earth a bit, but, like, there are certain people that have researched
certain things, and over time, they've just become more familiar and comfortable with the industry,
so I'll leave some of those trades for them because anytime I try to like, I want to jump into one of those,
and it's not that I can't like learn them, it's that I just can't get enough conviction to
understand like valuations and those kinds of things. And sometimes when you're in a thematic
trade, it's kind of hard to imagine what a fair valuation should be because you also don't know massive
that tailwind in the future is going to be and what that's going to trickle in.
So yeah, I mean, I just need to stick to things that are in my circle of competence, things
that I can really understand and feel comfortable with holding because I know like what sounds
like a good buy.
So no, I don't really have any uh specific thoughts bullish or
bearish on crml or any of the other rare earth stuff i think you know there will be trades with
a lot of this you know trump policies so i'm sure they'll do well and i'm sure i'll miss out and i'm
sure i'll be annoyed that i miss out but that's the circle of life when it comes to, uh, investing, uh, GME,
haven't read the Michael Burry piece. You know, I don't doubt that something like that,
if there's like legitimate ideas, which sounds like stock talk agrees, there are,
you know, there could be an inflection there. Chart looks good as he says. So look, I'm not,
I'm not ever against trades. i think throwing trades is exactly what
you should be doing that's what i do i trade a lot i'm way more active than probably like
most people on this platform i'm like trading stocks all the time um so you know i'm all for
activity i don't care um so yeah so i mean i always throw darts at the wall and i see what
sticks and what
doesn't, you know, this stock, you know, all these stocks, like, you know, valuation wise,
fundamental wise, stock looks good, chart looks good.
I'll take a stab, you know, in a few days I notice, oh, stock can't get going, you know,
broke down or ugly handle or broke support.
Okay, well, that one didn't really make the cut. I cut it at,
you know, 6% loss move on in my life. Uh, and then there's, you know, the other ones that end
up going up 20, 30% in a few weeks. And then you're like, okay, see, like that was worth it.
So generally speaking, like whenever I take positions, I want to understand that from both
fundamental perspective and like the chart looks good for an entry chart kind of tells you timing from a fundamental perspective i want to like be able to justify
something like a three to one risk reward um something that maybe has like 50 upside
and like 10 to 15 downside and that's a trade that i'll probably take all day long
um so i just you know yeah throw a lot of darts at the wall. Cause you never
know which one's going to end up being the one that goes up 50% next month versus, um, you know,
doesn't. So, uh, I think, uh, you know, I run a more diversified portfolio. I have like 30 holdings
right now. Um, but the amount of diversification I have, because each position is like four or 5% or so, um, you know, I'm running 140% long exposure and, uh, it makes it so any individual position can't really take down my portfolio.
down my portfolio. Now, obviously, if we have like market weakness or something, then I can
take like indiscriminate trims across the board and reduce my general equity exposure. If I felt
like there's like going to be a correction in the market or something like that. But otherwise,
like going like I trade mostly small caps, like two, $3 billion companies, some smaller than that, even some bigger,
you know, these, these kinds of companies can have vicious moves. They can be down 20, 30%
on an earnings report, 20, 30% on a 4% position. It doesn't ruin my day. I really don't care.
So, but you know, they can similarly have, you know, 30% updates or they can have,
you know, 50 to a hundred percent runs in the blink of an eye. So, you know, 30% updates, or they can have, you know, 50 to 100% runs in the blink
of an eye. So, you know, if I can try to find the basket of names that are similar, like in terms of
risk rewards, then I stack the exposure. And that's kind of how I manage my portfolio is like,
just keep stacking exposure. And then, you know, swap this one for this one. This one didn't work,
exposure and then you know swap this one for this one uh this one didn't work that's okay
uh that's why like i i typically sometimes i'll like run really high exposure like i am right now
but i know that eventually like okay i have like three four names on the chopping block that
they're getting really close to like you know this support level and if they lose it then you know i
take a five percent loss and i i regain know, four or 5% cash back to
my portfolio and put down my margin. So that's kind of how I think about it is I just add on
exposure when it looks good. Fundamentals lineup, technicals look good. And then, you know, either
cut it for a small loss or watch it win. And yeah, that's what I've been doing. Um, just, uh,
And yeah, that's what I've been doing.
Just, uh, uh, I think right now I'm probably, I just did a portfolio update.
I'm trying to think, let's see how much, I think I have like over 60% bio exposure.
I have probably, I think the most insightful thing I can say is I added a lot of actually
I can say is I added a lot of actually tech exposure today. Um, yeah, 67% bio and healthcare
tech exposure today.
exposure and 49% tech exposure. I think, uh, the, like this whole Claude AI, um, all the different
AI agent tools that have, that are already coming out, like the Anthropic, like all the hype around,
and it's not even hype, it's real.
Yeah, Anthropic's raising even more money.
I think that's going to accelerate the AI story for this year.
So, I mean, I've used Claude and Excel.
I don't know if any of you have yet, but it's incredible.
So the thing about this whole AI trade has been that it's actually here right now.
And every month we get a new thing that pushes the boundary of this trade
because the real world application is very real and tangible.
And it's not something that's to come.
It's like we're getting constantly like new things,
new tools and new efficiencies every day.
So like, I don't know how long it's going to take,
but pretty soon we're going to start seeing that
actually start to impact, you know,
bottom lines of probably the mega cap tech companies and
other companies in several industries. Like, you know, we're probably not going to be hiring
as much as we were in the past. So that's actually my next concern for the market actually is now is
like seeing these tools is like the white collar jobs are going to get destroyed. I just don't see another way.
I mean, that's the whole point of this thing.
So, yeah, I think you need to have exposure to AI.
Today I upped that in several different places.
It's just too obvious.
And sometimes the obvious trade is the right trade.
So, yeah, I think there's a lot of good names in kind of in AI.
I don't know. Yeah, that's basically what I got for now.
Stock Talk, you got any thoughts on the AI world of this? Obviously, it's been quite the theme.
the theme data centers have taken up a lot of it but i know there's a lot of these ai applications
Data centers have taken up a lot of it, but I know there's a lot of these AI applications coming on.
coming on i i can anticipate your answer here i do also want to ask like just in general ai
how do you like obviously you're probably using a lot of tools and stuff have there been any
interesting ones that you've seen recently you played around with this whole quad bot was a
popular thing over the weekend yeah it's sick um i've started testing it
i'm getting a couple other components i'm trying to build a little system um but yeah it's fantastic
uh yeah it's just getting better every month every day ai is everything in the market it's
the only reason the market keeps going up it's like yeah you have to have exposure um indirectly or
directly or in some way you have to be exposed to that theme and and the cool thing is is you can be
exposed to that theme in a lot of ways you could you could be in a mag 7 company almost all of them
have exposure maybe apple is probably the most limited but the rest of them all have a ton of exposure.
You could do it through any of the super popular AI mid caps and large caps that are out there.
Dozens of them that everyone knows about.
I don't even need to name them.
Or you could do it through the supply chain, which most of those stocks have also seen crazy multiple expansion last year you know anything related to heating and cooling anything related to uh data center infrastructure um you know memory all of these themes have exploded i mean memories been super hot this year mead's been done great on
micron and you know you look at so many other there's like so many angles to play it you don't
have to do you don't have to buy like some specific stock to benefit from it there's a lot of ways you
play through the power grid which is going to need to be absolutely transformed if we have any hope
of running agi systems at scale at any point in the future or even the current ai systems at scale
especially at commercial scale so you get invested in any of those ways but yes you i i, I, I, I, like, I would genuinely call a
person crazy if they didn't have any AI exposure in their portfolio. Like, I think it's absolutely
crazy to not have it. Um, because whether you're a value guy or a growth guy, there are stocks
connected to this that are fit all sorts of investment styles. So you don't need to buy
any particular name, but having some kind of exposure to it, yeah, I think you'd be crazy not to.
Crazy.
But, yeah.
I mean, I have plenty of exposure directly and indirectly, so I'm not worried about that personally.
But I think if you are a person that doesn't, yeah, that's something you should consider, I think.
Yeah, like you said, I think there's like so many different ways to get that exposure.
It's just honestly really exciting to me.
Like, because there are still things that look like they're in pretty good value territory
or they're just now starting to like participate.
I've seen Jag mention a name.
I saw like a lot of flow come in pretty recently.
And this thing looks like it's off to the race um it's gfs global founders um that thing is looking really really good and
if you just look at like the last two months of prs it's like first off this is a 26 billion
dollar company four billion dollars of cash last they did $600 million operating cash flows.
So, you know, you annualize that, assuming that it's not lumpy.
That gets you to $2.4 billion.
I mean, this thing is trading at like 10 times operating cash flow,
even after its recent run-up.
And, like, they just acquired AMD Foundry.
What is it?
They have a partnership with Navitas.
And they also acquired...
Damn it, I just forgot this thing.
I've been reading so much today.
What is it?
Let me see.
Oh, yeah, from Synopsys, processor IP solutions business.
This thing looks really good, and the chart is really good,
and the stock is really cheap.
So it looks like an inflection.
So that's one uh aoi you know i i recently found this one because there was like
55 calls for june which is like 20 out of the money and um you know this thing is quite volatile
but they have like these 8g nextgen data center cables that were recently validated by like their
hyperscaler partner, which is like taking a bunch of orders and pretty sure it's rumored that that's
Amazon. And, you know, you're talking about like a $3 billion business. So, you know, there's just
so many different ways to get exposure. You know, my one of my biggest winners of the year,
it's a name that Mystic has been talking about quite a bit. It's Schmidt Group. This thing has
is like dealing with basically advanced packaging and how that's kind of a bottleneck right now. And
the PCBs as well as, you know, their glass substrate technology, which Intel and others are,
you know, potentially shifting over towards intel and others are you know potentially shifting
over towards and so yeah there's just so many different angles of this trade and if anything
like you know i think a couple days ago everyone felt that the you know software had bottomed and
like i took some trades off the lows there but i i dumped them uh yesterday and uh just because
they were like lower volume into resistance.
And I'm like, I don't think this is potentially like, I don't think the bottom is just going
to happen like that.
Especially when the AI killing software narrative is actually only strengthening.
I don't think it's going to be that easy for these things to get out of the woods.
Um, you know, maybe I, maybe these things go a lot higher.
I don't care.
I'll take, you know, 25% profits in two days.
It's not a big, you know, that's a great trade for me.
Like, you know, you're seeing this Claude narrative and it just feels like the infrastructure
situation is still very much a bottleneck.
I mean, you're seeing it with Memory and Micron and SanDisk,
and these things are going higher and higher every single day,
and their pricing is just going higher,
and it just doesn't feel like there's that end in sight,
especially when we are just now finally getting
our first real enterprise-level products.
Like, sure, you can have ChatGPT Enterprise
as of a few months ago,
but ChatGPT Enterprise doesn't really do the things that,
like, now they're really building the software tools
that integrate into Excel and other things.
Like, even Microsoft Copilot,
like, this, you know, Claude and Excel is, you know,
shitting on it.
So it's like, you're going to keep getting
these even
better products. I don't know. I'm just saying like the use cases are going to continue to
explode. Probably you're seeing a lot of like the, you know, high quality names that are very
expensive. Like the cloud flares net is just, you know, up every day now because they know more of
these AI agent use cases are just
going to mean more business for the high quality players that are able to participate in the upside
in the volume of what's going on. Like I'd imagine, you know, Databricks in the back end is probably
going to be crushing all the cloud service providers like Amazon, Azure, Microsoft, Google,
they're all going to get a ton of business from this. And then I think Snowflake's been pretty weak, but it's pretty
interesting to me. I feel like Snowflake should participate, but clearly it looks horrible here.
So maybe MongoDB is a little bit stronger. I think it was probably near as high as the ad is.
So, I mean, clearly there's winners and losers.
And the market is kind of telling you which one's which. And that's why I think price action is so important. Because for a lot of us, like, I actually work, you know, I work in data science,
I've been, you know, studying machine learning models for 10 plus years. And even I don't know
every single software company in the world. And I don't know, you know, the exact specifics of
where each one fits in. And, you know, I definitely don't know. I'm not like a hardware engineer. I
don't know like why or which one, which names are going to win. But you can kind of, I think that's
a really interesting part is when you look at a stock's price action and you look at their chart,
it'll tell you when people are buying it. And the people typically buying it in size and volume are going to be the people who are industry experts for the most part.
So it's just, I think that's something very valuable you can gain from looking at stock charts is it teaches you or it shows you where you want to be versus where you don't want to be.
And it doesn't mean that you can't make a contrarian bet you know more than them but if you don't know more than the experts
you could probably just stick to what's safer um i mean yeah i mean we talked about a few of these
names um so we're gonna say something you can keep going for a little bit i have some more
thoughts and questions but yeah yeah um i mean i know like stock talk and i are both long
uh synaptics you know for edge computing that's going to be big uh you know obviously because
as we get more of these applications that's the thing right like this is like i think that's what
this this cloud moment it's it shouldn't be overlooked i can really feel it like i think
with everything else i don't want to say maybe it's like the
chat GPT moment 2.0 or something because it's like it's actually impactful and it's not just
like googling you know or searching for something and being like you know my tummy hurts what should
I do or I slept wrong why is my neck hurt or some some BS like that. Like, no, no, no, this is like, this is an actual inflection in productivity. And so that is going to just,
like, the next thing is probably going to be edge devices, right? Because that's going to be more
out into the real world. I mean, you've already, you already have things like, you know, the meta
Ray-Bans or, you know, the Google lenses soon with Warby Parker. Eventually or you know google uh lenses soon with warby parker eventually you know those things
are going to probably have like some sort of you know chips that can do ai work on the you know so
like these random devices are probably going to have a lot of computing there and so i mean the
trade just doesn't feel like it's over at all and it feels like if anything this just gave it another wind and i'm
just like thinking that yeah these things are going to keep working um you know i think a lot
of people talk about iron cipher uh you know nebius i think galaxy is still gonna be i think
that chart looks amazing recently they got another 830 megawatts of energy approved from ERCOT.
That has yet to be contracted by anybody.
So I think that eventually that PR is going to come probably sooner than later.
And I wouldn't be surprised to see Galaxy head to like 60 bucks off the back of that. Because right now, like having, you know, energy is we're very energy constrained.
So I think it's a pretty big
asset, especially right now when that's one of the biggest bottlenecks. Uh, you know, this,
there's an aluminum company, CENX, we talked about last time. Sorry, go ahead.
No, I thought you were, I think you're done. You can do your last one.
Last thing I'll say, like, I was just, cause I was just talking about like, you know, the 830
megawatts. CENX, which is that aluminum company, which right now aluminum is popping off, along with Alcoa.
CENX is like this high beta aluminum plate, but they have like this hidden asset, which is this 500 megawatts of basically like this land and power and water, just ready to go for like a data center to be built out on it.
So I think that's a huge asset that's basically not really being accounted for
when you look at that company.
So yeah, I mean, anything with excess capacity,
I mean, you've seen what happens to some of these like Bitcoin miner stocks
whenever they get any sort of, you know,
hundreds of megawatt deals going with a hyperscaler.
You see what happens to those stocks.
So yeah, it's just so many different things,
but it does feel like infrastructure continues to win,
hardware continues to win.
That is still the bottleneck because the use cases
and the amount of compute is still basically going up exponentially,
and more so now that we have more tools to use
i appreciate the thoughts there i do see paul from the leveratures team down below you guys uh we're gonna have a good discussion with them going forward talking through some themes in
the market that's gonna start in some 10 minutes or so um stock Talk, I did want to ask you, and I know we have Sam Solid up here as well,
critical metals, CRML,
and maybe the Greenland kind of area in general,
is there a specific type of rare earths
we're talking about here over others?
I know we've talked through lithium and copper
and all those different popular ones here,
I don't know, uranium and things like that.
What type of metals are they dealing with?
And is there kind of a majority of something in Greenland?
I know there's also a little bit of a misconception
about these rare earths that like they are super rare
and they're super hard to find and stuff,
but I know it's a little bit more around the refining capacity for it.
I'd be curious to hear kind of more about the trades there
and what specific metals there are.
Sorry, specific trade around what?
Sorry, I literally just got back to the phone.
You're good.
Around CRML and around Greenland in general.
There's a whole thesis here.
Is there a specific metals that we're talking about here?
Gold, silver, copper?
No, it's really just the idea that there's only two major deposits in Greenland,
and this is one of them.
That's really the idea.
And what are the deposits of?
I haven't looked into all the details of what minerals are there,
but they're the only two major rare earth deposits in the entire country.
So to me, it's more relevance of uniqueness than it is about, you know, what metals they're relevant to.
So it's not really to me relevant to the thesis at all.
Okay, that was fair.
Sam Solid, I see you were up here as well.
I know you heard a lot of what Logical was talking about there and maybe some other people.
You got any thoughts you want to throw into the mix?
Were there any major deals?
Any themes in this market that are particularly interesting for you?
Maybe it's cybersecurity, U.S. infrastructure, uranium and nuclear.
There's a humanoid robotics thing.
Any of those themes interesting for you on the news from today,
last couple of days?
Well, I just wanted to comment on the software sell-off.
I mean, software sells off every
single year it's usually around the summertime so i'm kind of surprised that it's happening right
now but you do have that catalyst with uh with cloud work cloud copilot and all that stuff i i
haven't followed it closely mostly because it's i would say that it's right now it's it's it's in
experiment stages it's fairly new so there's a it's in experiment stages. It's fairly new.
So there's a lot of hype around it.
But with hype comes fear for the other side of it.
So that could be doing it.
But software has been selling off for quite some time.
So it's probably just the catalyst more to the downside for it.
And plus, you're really seeing a lot of narrow leadership in the market.
Like it's not an everything rally.
But one thing that I've been waiting for was for the queues to make new all-time highs, right? Less than a percent away from there. And the tech
hasn't really been participating in the rally and that's mostly the mega caps, but you've had that
complete reversal the beginning of the week heading into earnings week, which historically
is a bullish time in the market. It's kind of difficult to be bearish, but you know, you're
going to have to pick your poison, right but you're going to have to pick your
poison, right? You're going to have to choose which ones you want along. And clearly, this is not
an everything rally. To comment on the earnings that we just had today, Texas Instruments,
they're one of the analog semiconductor companies out there. And they had really good guidance,
semiconductor companies out there and they had really good guidance but mostly in the auto and
industrial sector and if you look at across other analog companies and power chip companies power
management and so on one of them is on semiconductor been along this thing it's like 46 dollars and
after us that's 66 freaking dollars which is insane um also other other competitors or other
companies in this industry are microchip technology it's up
six percent after hours st microelectronics is up six percent after hours nxpi is up five percent
texas instrument itself is up ten percent like this is it's all sympathy moves but it's kind of
giving a little bit of a foreshadowing as to like what is working in this theme and i think wall
street's going to be jumping in this bagwagon
if they haven't already in this entire sector.
And it's not just all semiconductors.
It's, well, today likely is.
But I mean, it's kind of telling you what's actually working out there.
You know, the U.S. on-shoring manufacturing
that StockTalk's been preaching for quite a long time.
And it's working across other companies as well.
Like I swear, I think this is a Stock Talk pick.
I feel like the market thinks this is his pick because, I mean, this thing has just
been going up since the end of November.
And maybe I got lucky.
Maybe it's not.
But I haven't really made that many moves this year.
And I don't feel the need to because that's just how I work.
Like I feel like if I,
I made a lot of moves last year and I told myself this year,
I'm not going to make that many moves.
I'm just going to focus on things that are working,
focus on the themes and try to hone in on it.
And like,
don't be afraid.
I feel like I like,
I feel like I like an on semiconductor a little better than like an iron or
something.
No offense to the iron bowls.
It's never been my thing. I know it's been working.
No, I have a position in iron.
Yeah.
I have a position in iron.
Oh geez. It was up 14% today.
15% today.
Yeah.
I mean, I haven't, I honestly have not added to it on the way down and I'm
green on it.
I think my average is like 40 something dollars.
Uh, it could have been better, you know, but whatever.
I mean, I actually, I actually added around $63, like before
everything just fell apart, but it is what it is, right? It was a 3% position. I decided that that's
going to be the position size. And yeah, it went down more, but I was like, well, I can either add
to this or add to things that like, I'm really convicted in that I really did a research in that
isn't like a very popular retail stock. And I might be shooting myself in the foot because Zeta is
something I'm long as well. But, you know, at the same time, like I don't feel comfortable going extra long companies
that don't have some sort of like near term catalyst across the horizon. I mean,
IRON is up 14% today, but I'll be honest, if there are no announcements on the hyperscalers
for a deal with IRON, especially next week when IRON and Amazon are going to be reporting on the hyperscalers for a deal with IRON, especially next week when IRON and Amazon
are going to be reporting on the same day, if there is no announcement, IRON is probably going
to be down. Now, I'm not a bear on it. I feel like the long-term story with this stock as well
as Nebius is very bullish. But I'm not going to press the gas because I think something's going
to happen. I want to see it part of a massive secular trend. Now,
Nebius and Iron are, but I mean, this entire trend has been going on for some time. Like it probably has more run room, but look, like I already have positions in these. And if Iron goes
to the target that I have, which is okay. Don't laugh when I say this, but I'm targeting Iron to
be around $600 by 2030. If it does on trajectory. Now, that's very risky because like we just saw, if you get any type of scare in this entire data center build out, the whole industry is just going to fall, right?
Like NVIDIA is not going to go back to 20 bucks, but Iron could, right?
So like that's just a risk you have to take.
And I already sized proportionally to like what I want considering it's beta and the risk and the risk that I have my portfolio.
But I think there are still in the near term are is other opportunity to market.
I don't necessarily see the reason why I would add to IRIN now because I'm speculating what
might happen.
The time to add IRIN in high conviction was down the 30s if you're really convicted on
But I feel like a lot of people
are chasing the price and the excitement and what they read on Twitter. So you've got to kind of be
careful that look, if it pulls back, just like, keep that in mind. If it pulls back, you got to
be ready to add more. If you're, if you want to make it bigger, you got to be willing to hold it.
And, you know, lucky, lucky that may be iron basically doubled in the last couple of months,
but you know, that, that was not what I was looking to add to
back in November.
There were lots of things to add to back in November
that are doing really well,
that have continued to do well,
that have continued to lead this trend.
And it still is picks and shovel, surprisingly.
It's been picks and shovels for three years.
It's been the stage one of AI for three years,
and it's continuing to be so and what's when stage two coming when are we going to start getting this software comeback
for a lot of the stuff and like it's not coming back right i i'm surprised i'm sure walsh is
surprised as well which is the reason why you're seeing it sell off and leadership is still
narrowing on what's been working and i don't i i i'm done with like the whole let me keep on buying as it's going
down over and over and over again the bag holding like i'm kind of done with that right because it
just it works in like everything rallies but it's it's not working today right so i've looked at
more than a few charts i was talking about on a solid report and just like you just time and time
again it's like i'm teaching myself and i'm learning it from you guys all the time and learning it just in experience as well
as like you don't need to buy the bottom to make money in this freaking market like you don't need
to catch the bottom and sometimes i'm wrong sometimes i think something's the bottom and
it's not and then i'll just get out of it you know depending on the conviction on it and then
sometimes you know i'll just hold on to it if it's a then sometimes, you know, I'll just hold onto it.
If it's a good position, I'm still bullish long-term.
Like today, Rubrik, Rubrik is down to 8% today, right?
Did Rubrik have earnings?
No, didn't have earnings.
One of its competitors, their earnings, Commvault,
it missed guidance by about 1%,
but you know how software goes.
If you don't beat the guys out of a legislature,
it's gonna sell you off.
So what does that mean for Rubrik?
Well, I mean, they reported their earnings last
quarter. The thing was almost $100 stock. And now it's back way below was pre earnings. So my
question is, if you've been waiting for an entry level or a rubric, and you're very bullish,
do you have to buy now? You got me could probably wait, there's some moving averages,
I think the 200 day moving, I just around 73 bucks. Right. So the last time it broke that 200-day moving average, right before earnings, it skyrocketed,
right?
So like that, I feel like that is a much better setup.
There was a stock that just, oh, I think it was Meta.
Meta closed right on the, no, sorry, not Meta.
Cloudflare closed right in the 200-day moving average just yesterday, right?
And look where it is today, right?
So you could have missed that first 10% move in Cloudflare
and I guess honed in your thesis,
threw a flyer out there, see what happens today,
you would have been up 13%.
And that doesn't work out all the time,
but it just, well, that was probably a better setup
than where it was the other day
because that was like, it's low since April, 130 bucks.
So I don't know learning new learning everything new
on the market from you guys too especially um but I've been looking looking forward to seeing
what's going to happen with the rest of these earnings I mean tomorrow is obviously a big day
you have 15 trillion dollars of market reporting in the next 48 hours so it's definitely a market
mover and we're like coming out right at the all-time high of the queues,
right at the top of the range.
We've been consolidating it since last September.
So something's going to happen.
I don't know, $15 trillion, 30%, 40% of the entire market.
Something's going to happen.
Appreciate you, Mr. Sam Solid.
You guys enjoy Sam.
He is hosting a show, The Solid Report on the Wolf account,
pretty much every single day.
I do see we did just get Paul from the Leverage Shares team up here.
I think you've been listening for the last 15, 20 minutes or so. I sent over a co-host there.
I'm excited for this conversation we have coming up here, talking some different themes in the market.
We were a lot of AI excitement over the last last 15 20 minutes there which i'm sure you
heard how you doing sir i'm doing great uh just trying to stay warm and all the snow we got up
here in connecticut yeah i i have heard it in a lot of snow i have heard it is crazy but it's
not as bad as maybe was feared i hope you're doing well though yeah we're doing great we're doing
great yeah i've been listening in to you, and it's nice to hear people talking about
AI again in a positive manner.
I mean, for a long period of time, there was so much apprehension around that.
I heard talk about semiconductors.
I heard talk about data centers.
I heard talk about the hyperscalers.
And, you know, it's interesting because we've been doing a lot of media to start the year,
and a lot of the questions are around, like, you know, small cap, is this the time to
get in the small cap, so on and so forth. And I think there are pockets in small caps where you
can absolutely do well. But, you know, I don't think you should sleep on some of the larger
names. And we're going to come into earnings this week, this week with a lot of big names,
you know, a lot of money on the table. And I think we're going to come into earnings this week with a lot of big names, a lot of money on
the table. And I think we're going to get a good snapshot coming up as to just how strong these
companies are. And you've already seen it with some of the Taiwan semiconductors who reported
earlier in the cycle and demand is strong. I've never seen a guy like Jensen Wong smile so much for
how much responsibility he has, but he's always smiling. He's always happy and he's always
optimistic about the size of the business. So I would imagine that growth is going to be strong
in all those sectors. And we're pretty excited to be able to participate in that with some of the thematic ETFs that we have and obviously the leveraged single stocks that we have as well.
Yeah, I want to be able to talk about some more of the ticker-specific names.
I want to read a quick disclosure here, but I am excited for this conversation.
I think Greenland is still definitely a part of the theme here.
We have a new stock talk pick from earlier in the spaces, so maybe we'll talk through that one, see if it's in a part of the theme here. We have a new stock topic
from earlier in the spaces, so maybe we'll talk through that one, see if it's in any of the ETFs here. But I think there's a couple of good plays from that one. And obviously, we'll talk a little
bit of AI as well. I'm excited for this conversation here. But investors should definitely carefully
consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's
prospectus and funds prospectus.
And summary prospectus contain this information and other information about the themes ETFs
from Leverage Shares. To obtain a funds prospectus and key information, you should visit their
website at themesetf.com. Websites are a great place to go. A fund's prospectus and key information
document should be read carefully before investing. We're excited to be working with the Themes ETF
team. We're excited to be working with the Leverage Shares team. I am excited for this conversation
that we have going on here. So obviously, Paul, Greenland and NATO and rare earth metals and silver and all that stuff is as relevant as ever.
I do have a tweet pinned up in the nest above with a bunch of the ETFs that you guys have available.
Obviously, there's a gold miners ETF, AUMI. There's a silver miners ETF, AGMI. And I don't
even know how these ones are doing so far this year and obviously the past does not equal the future but so far this year the agmi the silver miners etf is up 32
percent uh that that name has definitely become very popular copper has also all of a sudden
become an extremely talked about name here and i'd like to see this theme uh the the flows here but
you guys have an ETF, COPA.
So maybe we start there.
Copper has become a super common, talked about theme in this area as we're talking about rare earths.
It's also kind of become a data center theme. When I was at the NVIDIA keynote for CES, when they unveiled the Rubin chip, or sorry, Rubin rack is what we could call it.
unveiled the ruben chip they kind of are sorry ruben rack is what we could call it they turned
it around and he was like there is 500 feet of copper wire here and they're gonna start mass
producing that so uh i mean copper has run a lot let's see what this one is up copa is already up
21 so far this year so i have no idea what the future will look like but copper has had quite
the run yeah if you had if you had an idea of what the future would look like,
I'd hope you'd text me after the show today and tell me exactly what that
looks like.
but,
yeah,
I've been talking about copper as well because,
every,
everybody wants to ask about gold.
Everybody wants to ask about silver and obviously they're doing really well.
And each has a little bit of a different characteristic. Although silver actually has an industrial component. And I
think that that strengthens its position. Although, you know, I always say this about
silver right now, that the move has been so parabolic that you always have to be cautious
whenever you see a chart like what you're seeing with silver right now, because at some point
they double padlock the door, the elevated doors, they hit the down button and you're going to see
a little bit of a correction.
What it does after that correction is super important, but I think silver has a lot of
legs.
So when people ask me, is it still OK to get into silver?
Is it still OK to get into gold?
You know, it really depends on your time horizon.
And when you see moves like they've taken, you've got to take a step back.
But if you look at the chart of copper, it's a much different story.
It has had some peaks, but not nearly the kind of peaks that gold and silver have had.
And then it's had some corrections, but then it always bounces back.
And if you look at the chart, it's forming a nice little pattern to the upside, even
It's forming a nice little pattern to the upside, even through some volatility.
through some volatility.
And you're seeing higher highs and higher lows, which is always great for a trend.
Now, beyond the trend is the industrial use.
And like you just said, Jensen Wang came out and talked about how much copper they're using
in their new rack.
Like that's critically important, but it's not just NVIDIA.
It's copper is used in the electrification of all things. And so when I think about copper today,
I think about it in the same sense of silver last year, where people were on the fence and they
didn't know, should I get in? They started to make a move. Is it too late? Should I get in?
Moved a little bit higher. Should I get in? Should I get in? And then all of a sudden it took this leg up. The other thing that I would say about commodities that's super important, especially
when it comes to these metals is, you know, what's happening with the dollar? The dollar's getting
weaker and Trump just came out for the first time. He's usually been, you know, a dollar, you know,
supporter and saying, hey, we want a strong dollar, but he also plays
both sides of the fence. And he understands that he's sort of in a competition with currencies
to not be, you know, the strongest obviously, uh, and to, to play the weakness to his advantage.
And so he came out today with a statement that said, he doesn't really care if the dollar gets
weak, which is interesting. He's never really come out and said that.
There's also a comment, which we've been kind of focused on here around yo-yos.
He said he can kind of control the currency like a yo-yo up or down.
Yeah, he always has really interesting statements, right?
But my point in all that is, if there is less of a concern of a strong dollar and there
is a desire, and again, there's only two ways to grow out of the debt that we have, right?
You got to, to a certain extent, debase your currency, whether or not that's good for the
long term.
That's one way to get out of debt.
And the other is growth at all costs.
Trump is in both sides of those camps.
And so he obviously is going to put a dovish Fed chairman in come this spring.
That's going to put pressure on the dollar, perhaps weaken it a bit. And growth at all costs, I mean, that really bodes well for
the price of commodities. And so there's a lot of tailwinds for something like copper. We've seen it
with some of the bigger names. We've talked about it on this stream
where it's like growth at a value price.
Like to me, I'm not telling anybody to get out of silver.
I'm not telling anybody to get out of gold.
But if you are thinking in that space
and you're thinking industrial metals
and you're thinking about perhaps what's next
or perhaps what has some
legs into the future, I think copper is really attractive. And it's another one of those things
where go back five, six, seven, 10 years, people have been talking about copper. It's never made
a substantial move. You're starting to look at the chart. The chart looks really great.
To me, copper is very attractive here.
Interesting. Some of these ones have a little bit more, there are very attractive here. Interesting.
Some of these ones have a little bit more,
there are a couple different places in here.
Obviously, there is the gold one, gold miners,
everything like that.
The ETF there is AUMI,
which is a little bit more on the debasement,
talking more about the dollar.
Obviously, some of the other ones,
like you have a uranium ETF, uranium and nuclear one,
URAN, U-R-ARAN is talking a little bit more about energy and the need for that increase in data
centers. They need energy. There's a resurgence in microsites for nuclear reactors. It's much
safer than it's been. It's more popular than it's been. It's the only way to really get something that's considered clean energy at the capacity that we need.
And so there's going to be two use cases for it. One, it's going to be to power everything AI
and all of these data centers. All the hyperscalers have already talked about deals that
they're making, investments they're making in nuclear sites. But once that takes off, I think it follows into the public sector. And I think you can see our
grid become much stronger for having nuclear energy. And so that is just a great play on our
ETF because it both is uranium miners and it plays on uranium, but it also plays on nuclear energy
and some of those nuclear microsite plays.
And so you're getting a combination of both.
Again, I'm biased.
I'm the chief revenue officer of Themes ETFs and Leverage Shares by Themes.
But part of that process for us is to try to identify places that aren't just going to grow
for the year or two years or three years. These are multi-year plays where we think there's high
growth areas of the market that leads to long-term investment. On our thematic side of the business,
those are not trading vehicles. You can trade them just like any other ETF, but they also could be
long-term holds. And we have a lot of advisors that allocate to our
thematics as long-term holds for their clients to generate excess returns in high growth areas.
On the retail side, though, it could work the same way. You could buy those and hold those
for the long period of time. So when we think about those thematics, we definitely think about
people who want to make investments in high growth areas of the market that have longer term plays. And again,
nuclear and uranium is one of those places that we think has a lot of legs out into the future
as we change the way we think of clean energy, change the way we think about powering the grids and uh powering all of this massive amounts
of energy that we need for uh ai and the hyperscalers
stock talk can i uh bring you into the conversation there paul i appreciate you that was some awesome
insights there mr stock talked if we do have you.
What's up?
Gold.
Gold, we've talked about here in a little bit.
I know you have some gold hidden away in the third story of your house,
if anyone is looking for it.
Gold's been talked about a lot.
Obviously broke above 5,000.
Is there ever a point where you're thinking you're going to go in
and sell some of your gold?
Are you ever looking to play it through other areas?
No, I mean, I don't trade it on the markets.
I own physical gold, but I don't care.
For the record, it's not in this house.
Yeah, no, hopefully they knew.
You're kidding.
But yeah, no, I mean, I own physical gold, but no,
I've never really had the desire to play through the markets.
Stock talk, just make sure that it's not on the third floor anywhere you have it.
Put it in the basement.
You don't want it to crash through depending upon how much you own.
No, no, no, no.
I mean, no, it's not in my house at all.
He's got a lot of it.
It's a big bank.
Wonderful bank.
We've also talked a lot about lithium on this one.
LIMI is one of the ETFs that they have.
And I'd imagine Greenland,
that would honestly end up becoming quite a lithium story.
It was one of the,
I was looking a little bit into CRML
when I was asking the stocks.
And that was one of the metal,
well, one of the rare earth,
one of the earth materials that was brought of the the metal well one of the rare earth one of
the earth materials that was brought up lithium being one of them I wonder if that's been a theme
I mean it's more of a light than heavy RE deposit it's not about lithium
um tambourines is is a heavy and light deposit so you know the names are crazy for the metals I'm
not going to go through a list of what types of metals that is, but, um, it's a mix
of light and heavy deposits is where the focus is for temporary.
Gotcha.
Okay.
That makes sense.
Any updated thoughts on nuclear?
I know you've been talking a little bit through LEU here, uh, a little bit.
That's when they, yeah i think i think leu is the best nuclear stock um period why do you why is nuclear something that
you're interested in is it the data center i think it's the first real revival of nuclear
in decades really um you know nuclear spent the better part of the last 40 years in a political
limbo because the Democrats were
pushing clean energy and the Republicans were pushing oil and gas and coal. And so,
like, there just wasn't enough advocacy for nuclear. And unfortunately, the way that
mature democracies work is they're really just controlled by lobbies, right? Like everything
that's paid attention to. It's the reason we still have car dealerships, right?
Is because of the auto lobby and the reason that you still have an overbuilding of roadside
infrastructure, even though that's becoming less and less relevant is because of the lobby.
And so same reason you don't have high speed trains in America.
We should have high speed trains all over the country, but the automotive lobby doesn't
want that, right? So the reality about it is regardless of what side you stand on politically, a lot of American
policy is controlled by lobbies. And there was a vacuum really for nuclear lobbying activity for
a long time because there just wasn't a place for it.
The oil and gas industry and then the other side, the renewable energy industry,
are so wealthy that they just overpowered their interests for decades, really.
And this is the first time, this is actually really the first presidential cycle
where there was a pretty broad emphasis on it from candidates on both sides.
And then Trump gets in power and is talking about it every other week, which helps.
But the reason presidential focus on these issues matter, like people just think it's just words.
It's not just words.
Like the president is directing agencies that enable technologies like the Department of Energy plays a huge role in the ability
for any energy to scale in the United States.
They do the permittings and regulations
and the rubber stamps.
And the president controls,
effectively controls the DOE,
not directly, but effectively controls the DOE.
Like what he wants done at the DOE will be done.
This is what people don't understand
about like policy focus.
This is why focusing on policy
can be so profitable in the markets, because there is consequence to the president's opinions, whether it's this president or any other president.
When the president has an opinion on something, that opinion is reflected in federal agencies. And that's how it translates to policy. Not everything needs to be passed in Congress.
Everything needs to be passed in Congress.
Right.
And that's another thing that people fundamentally misunderstand about, like American policy,
is that like the vast majority of it is formed in the halls of these agencies and not through
legislation.
Right.
Like the ease of permitting in a particular category of energy is almost entirely dictated
by the president of the United States.
Right.
And that's why you see in Republican
administrations, you see more fracking, more drilling, more permitting for oil and gas. And
in Democrat administrations, you see less of it. I mean, actually depends. There have been
exceptions to that. I think Obama had two years of his presidency where it was up. But
it just it's a function of focus and focus actually produces policy results. And so I think nuclear will see a real inflection.
I mean, if you look at the Constellation Energy deal that was signed last year,
that's the biggest ever nuclear deal signed with an American corporate.
That means something. And since then, you've seen 10 other deals, not as big, but 10 other
multi-billion dollar deals signed. So what makes industry move money and what often makes money
move policy focus and so it's really just a ladder of logic to me and i think you know in the nuclear
space right now there's a lot of trash there's a lot of pre-revenue stuff that's like not
um necessarily a good investment or at least is a difficult investment to model five or 10 years
out. But there's other nuclear stocks that I think are much easier to see their role play in all of
this. And, you know, for me, Centris is one of those stocks where it just has a very obvious
role. They're the only enricher in the country. And, you know, they're about to expand. And like,
it's, they're operating at a bottleneck. And the thesis for all of my like high conviction positions that I've held for a long time, Centris, Amcor, ENS, so on and so forth.
There's all these companies operate at very specific bottlenecks in U.S. capacity.
And so they're beneficiaries of reshoring, but they're also beneficiaries of U.S. policy focus in general.
And that is a double whammy that's like hard to duck. You usually see some stock price appreciation from
that, whether it's multiple expansion or earnings growth. So yeah, that's really my view on Centris.
Centris is much more expensive today than it was last year when I bought it. Obviously,
it's three times more expensive, but they remain the only operator at the bottleneck of enrichment in the country.
And that gives them upside, you know.
And as long as they keep expanding capacity,
they can continue to operate at that bottleneck.
And that's what they're doing.
So, yeah, that's the centrist thesis.
I know that was long-winded, but.
No, I think you made a lot of great points there, too,
especially about policy and about lobbying.
I mean, it was easy for the lobbyists to knock
down nuclear, especially with Chernobyl and Fukushima and the dangers behind it. So it was
very easy to pick on, very easy to squash, got people scared. And when people get scared,
the politicians usually follow because they have to do what the people want because otherwise they
won't get voted in, right. But that whole narrative has now changed
because on the opposite side of that is you have huge corporations, the hyperscalers coming out and
saying, hey, we need energy. We're never going to be able to get the amount of energy that we need.
So they're dumping money into changing the positioning of nuclear, changing the story to make it something that's, you know, considered
green energy, that's clean, that is much, much safer with the newer technology and the smaller
microsites. And so I think you're getting that bid now and you're getting a lot of different forces
that were once against it behind it. And so there's a lot of momentum, great tailwinds for the nuclear story. So I
couldn't agree with you more. Yeah, I mean, there's this great comment at the,
well, I'll preface this with saying the reason that the oil and gas lobby and the renewable
energy lobby alike, the reason they both oppose nuclear energy and have
opposed nuclear energy is because it is the best form of energy. It is not only clean and efficient,
but it also provides the energy intensity that is necessary. And there was a great comment on this
at Davos on one of the smaller panels. Maybe some people saw it, but some people posted it on Twitter.
And there was a guy who was commenting on this
and said, look, solar power is great.
You know, there's a lot of open land around the world.
There's no reason not to build it,
but it can't provide the energy intensity necessary
to do things like build steel, for example.
Okay, there's a difference between providing just electricity
and then energy intensity that you need to do these very, very intense processes. And that's why a lot of those applications, even today, even But the only other clean, the only clean energy that can compete on energy intensity with traditional burning of
carbon is nuclear. That's why it's so intimidating, because it is the most elite best form of energy
ever conceived. And unfortunately, there's a huge stigma around the idea of deploying nuclear power
plants, because people don't want them in their neighborhoods.
People think that they're, you know, radioactive and, you know, they don't want them near them.
They don't want them in their cities or towns.
And this skepticism has made it really hard to advance nuclear energy in this country. It's also made it hard to get approvals because if you're a local legislator and you approve
a nuclear power plant in the neighborhood, that you're going to upset a lot of people. And so there's a compounded effect of skepticism that has
prevented it from scaling. And to be honest, it sucks because I really do think that I genuinely
believe that nuclear energy is a solution to a lot of the world's problems, like a lot. And
you know, energy independence like around the world would change so much about everything, like not just productivity.
It would massively increase GDP, obviously, you know, providing cheap quality energy to developing nations would massively increase global GDP. But forget about the money benefit. It would also not only save lives, but it would
probably create a lot less conflict than we have today, a lot less. And, you know, because a lot
of the conflict that we have in the modern era is around energy security. A lot of it is the
underlying reason. I mean, whatever, you can think that's a conspiracy or whatever, but it's not.
reason. I mean, whatever. You can think that's a conspiracy or whatever, but it's not.
Most modern conflict has been around energy security. And, you know, solving that problem
would be a huge thing. So I hope it continues to be favored by, you know, future candidates in both
parties. But it's something that we should spend a lot of money on. And we should encourage other
countries to spend a lot of money on, especially developing countries who are building new energy infrastructure. We should
encourage them, and hopefully, you know, we'll be able to, to not invest in traditional energy
infrastructure and to build up from the ground with nuclear. I think that's a great idea for a
lot of the emerging economies in South America and in Southeast Asia. I think that's a genius policy
decision. I hope that they do that. I don't know if they will, because again, there's so much
skepticism and it's expensive and you can't scale it quickly. That's another issue, right? It takes
a long time to build these plants, which is why I do think there's a lot of promise in small modular
reactors, but we're a long way from deployment. You know, most of these guys are promising 2028, 2029, 2030 deployments.
We don't know if the technology will be ready by then, right?
Like it's been demonstrated, but there's a big, big path
between manufacturing at scale and demonstration of technology.
So I don't know.
I think there's a lot of promise there.
You know, I hope that it scales quickly.
I'm not invested directly in that space right now, There's a lot of promise there. You know, I hope that it scales quickly.
I'm not invested directly in that space right now,
but in theory, it works.
So, yeah, I don't know.
I like nuclear a lot.
You know, I probably will scale up my nuclear basket at some point,
but for now, Centris, I feel really comfortable owning.
And I think the chart's phenomenal too, so that helps that was a good take there on uh on centrist and uranium and and
nuclear in general is there anything you wanted to uh add to that as well paul no i think i think
we talked it to death uh i'm as positive as stock talk is on it and i see it as the future so very positive for the long term
there and i pinned up in the nest above obviously these rare earth materials have been really
popular there's another tweet up there talking through just the five etfs the uranium and
nuclear one the lithium one the copper etf copper has become super popular gold and silver. So the tickers are up in the nest above. You can dig in there.
But what are we fueling all this stuff with?
Where are we using all this copper and other things?
The gold one's a little bit of a different conversation.
Data centers,
humanoid robots,
all of that type of stuff is kind of where this conversation is also going
So yeah, the data center theme there was another
i thought i thought it was a really interesting story uh this morning between meta and corning
even uh glass and fiber optic eyebrow fiber optic cables is stuff that is kind of becoming
a part of this ai trade and everything like that so um you know the question of is why are these
metals being bid up or why are these metals being bit
up or why are we talked about them being bit up some of it's debasement but some of it is also
they are being used aggressively and the potential of them being used aggressively and if you can be
considered a bottleneck of this ai build out you're going to get a multiple there obviously
we've seen what's happened with micron and and those names. But generative AI, data centers, that whole part of the market.
I'm curious if you have any thoughts as we start to kind of pivot
towards that direction.
Obviously, we have some products there.
No, I do.
What excites you in that direction?
Have you seen anything, any updates over the last couple of days,
any news stories that stood out to you?
So, no, I mean, I like to see that there's more positivity around semiconductors and uh ai i i don't know oh yeah can you hear me oh
i i hear you just fine i cannot hear him okay are you there yeah we we got you paul go ahead
okay yeah i think i think i got boobedob so no worries but yeah what i was saying is i've always been bullish on ai and semiconductors and
and i you know i understand that people get nervous and people you know talk about
lack you know lack of being able to sell in china and all this other stuff but when i look at supply
and demand for semiconductors when i look at the supply and demand for chips when i see all the
build-out that has to happen and we're in the early stages,
that always excites me, right? So I'm a big fan of the AI movement, all things that go into it,
whether that's chips, software, data centers, you name it. I think there's tons of room for
growth there. But if I could just pivot a little bit to something where not everybody has the same kind of
exposure, I would focus on humanoid robotics because, you know, humanoid robotics also in the
early stages, robots are, you know, going to, you know, be a major part of the next five, 10 years
in, you know, how we live our lives. And not only that, but it also gives you a tech return stream
that is different from the others. And what we're seeing is we have a passive strategy called BOTT,
B-O-T-T. And when it started to get popular, we started to get inquiries. And people would say,
When it started to get popular, we started to get inquiries.
And people would say, why do you have such a heavy position in South Korea?
As I think like 40-something percent of the portfolio right now is companies that are
in South Korea.
And I would say it's not intentional.
We have an index.
That index has a strict criteria for how companies get included.
And right now, some of the best names and highest performers are companies that are
based out of South Korea because they have an expertise and a prowess in humanoid robotics
that's showing up in their company performance. And so what it also showed me is that there's
lots of different places to get returns that are outside of the US and are outside of traditional names
that so many people have exposure to. So we've started to see a big increase in bot.
There are days where our portfolio managers are trading the fund and several names have done 30%
or better in a day. And they've had to halt trading for a little bit,
which obviously for PMs that are managing the portfolio gives them a little bit of a headache,
but we always get through it with no problem. But I guess my point is separate return stream
from your traditional AI and data centers and US trading strategies. There's a large component to the U S in it as well, but it's an international strategy that gives you a really nice differentiated return stream
in humanoid robotics to sort of compliment your traditional tech holdings in the U S. So
that's something that we're really excited about. We literally changed the index last year,
at the beginning of last year,
and we've seen a tremendous shift.
