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Half a Billion Dollars Liquidated. In One Candle. | Market Check
Recorded: March 5, 2026 Duration: 1:04:48Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody.
Louie, did you just put that on the screen?
Jesus.
Good morning, everybody.
Welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, guys.
Happy Thursday.
It's Thursday, so you should probably know the
deal at this point about what kind of price action we can expect uh we're a little bit red on the day
for the most part the market's been trading fairly sideways this week i want to say i mean we got a
nice pump uh a day yesterday retracing some of that today market's kind of indecisive here, right? As we're kind of sitting
at the range highs from where we've been kind of ranging for the last four to six weeks. But
regardless, guys, we're going to have a great show for you all today. We're going to talk about
where we think the market's headed next, outline a ton of different scenarios, hopefully, and
maybe even talk about some of your favorite assets. Who knows? If you have any of your
favorite assets on the top of your mind,
go ahead and drop them in the chat.
But I'm Snorlax.
You guys also know me as Tommy.
I'm joined by Prometheus.
And of course, Big Louie.
We are going to, yeah, no, I already said that.
But we're going to have a great show for you guys today.
Before we can start cooking,
before we can get really deep into the alpha analysis,
I'm going to ask if you guys can hit the like button for us.
Let's run it up in
the way that Thursday's price usually does not. Or maybe you want to be the support and the chart
that you want to see, right? Hit the like button. I'm sorry. My jokes about the like button today
were pretty bad, but hopefully the show is good. On the topic of the market though,
The show is good. On the topic of the market, though, you know, I mean, the S&P is down about
0.8%. Yesterday was up, I want to say at 1.1 and a quarter percent. So we're still in the
Hotel California range. Someday I won't have to say that. But right now the regime is pretty clear,
right? We're in between 6,700 and 7,000 on the S&P. They crush bull when we get these impulsive spikes higher on news that's like bad, but
not really that bad.
And then the market lifts higher.
But noticing that the ceiling for the S&P continues to kind of fall while the floor for
the VIX continues to rise.
This is the regime that we're in until one of these levels gives out 6,700 or 7,000.
Will we ever get to leave the Hotel California range or are we just stuck here for the remainder
of the Trump presidency? I guess that's becoming the golden question at this point.
What I am noticing today though is that the Dow is down almost 2%, really leading the downside in the market. This rotation that we had seen into defenses out of tech has now kind of reversed.
Is that a sign that we're about to see tech pump again?
Or is that a sign that maybe everything is ready to sell?
Again, things I think that we'll discuss on today's stream.
Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't talk about what Bitcoin and crypto have done earlier this or already this week. I mean, we pumped up to 74K. That was one hell of a move that we had yesterday. Squeezed a ton of shorts. We're pulling back a little bit. Is this, I've said this before, I framed it in this way. Is this kind of that low vol consolidation before our final leg down? Or is this the low vol that we often see indicative
of a typical crypto bottom? Again, things we'll discuss on today's episode. Not too much to write
about from an individual standpoint. Hyperliquid down a little bit more than altcoins, I guess,
is kind of something worth discussing. I still tend to lean that this is a high timeframe bearish retest
that we're seeing for Hyperliquid. But I think if we're ranging up here, you know, a few more weeks
in the same way that we're talking about these potential low volatility patterns being bottoms,
you know, that's what you could expect from Hyperliquid as well, if that's the price action
that we're going to see. So to go lower or to establish value,
chop and eventually go higher, I think is kind of the crux of this intro. But what are we seeing
in the market right now, guys? Will we ever leave this Hotel California range? I feel like we've
checked in and we are just never allowed to leave. Yeah, I agree. I mean mean i'm seeing volatility just persistent um yeah the the seemingly
i mean i don't know if you want to call it a death range yet the eight month range in btc in 24 was
was in my opinion far worse that was um insanity in a nutshell if you want to know what insanity
looks like and you know we're seeing a
little bit of a mixed bag circle just continuing to just chad i mean again today again i mean it's
up two percent today it's about 107 huge move uh names that i've been short quantum names you know down down bad um we're seeing gold finally showing like pretty limp meat
edge patterns um yeah gold is i i might be closing out my gold long um right around here break even
if we can kind of break down below the 30-day rolling vwap which is kind of what has acted as historical support for quite some time. And energy is now kind of starting to slow
down a little bit. And one thing that I've mentioned is the ES, your risk on signal,
if you can get above like what Tommy said, 7,000 as the more weaker names, if they're able to start
to show strength, that's a great signal for risk.
But if you're seeing the names that have dominated the flows thus far,
like the Dow, the names in the Dow,
and the Dow in particular start to roll over,
you lose a lot of those more recent supportive flows.
And because of that, that's your risk off signal.
That's what I'm seeing.
Louie, what about you, brother?
Yeah, oil's your risk off signal. That's what I'm seeing. Louie, what about you, brother? Yeah, oil's
looking really good.
This is a strong weekly
candle on oil.
Multi-year consolidation
breakout. You're likely
going to close near the high of
the week. That's really good.
Worth watching. I wouldn't chase it, but if you get pullbacks,
I think they're worth playing. Yeah. Nice. We've got a Bitcoin yesterday. I do like that.
We're at major demand on Bitcoin here. We're down 55% off the highs. I mean, your version at a minimum makes sense, right? It doesn't mean like bottoms in or anything, but a bounce.
We have the weekly RSI fully reset. Last time we saw that was pretty much you were at or near the
lows other than obviously FTX bottom. But historically, when you're buying Bitcoin with the weekly RSI reset,
it usually only takes about six to nine months to be in profit on those buys.
So that's kind of what I've been doing.
I've been accumulating Bitcoin in this gray zone.
We have our eight-month range of hell that Prometheus mentioned.
We also have our 2021 all-time high double top.
This is a big
demand right this is big support uh probably the biggest we have until you start dropping into like
40k 45k um so i expect some sort of reaction here uh finally starting to see that yesterday
and the day before which is great love to see it it just kind of needs to stick the landing here
right i think we need to stick the landing we need to stick above range highs we do. Love to see it. It just kind of needs to stick the landing here. Right. I think we need to stick the landing. We need to stick above range highs.
We do not want to see another redo of what we did here. Right.
Which was kind of what we're doing now, but not confirmed yet,
which was breaking a range high,
unable to continue getting back inside the range and, and continuing lower,
right? We don't want this to turn into that again. Um, so closely monitoring, closely
monitoring the situation here. Um, we've got some liquidity here around 69 K I can see something
like this and then maybe a higher low bears get trapped shorting this and then we see
something like that but we'll see right we'll see but liking the move thus far um off the lows for
bitcoin um i just want to see continuation but again i think equities are your canary in the
coal mine right which way is this going to break this is some pretty insane compression going on now since
December end of December so three three and a half months of compression
this is going to break in a big way one way or the other right um
so this is super bowl for people who say but what if there is an equities correction?
It is.
It is.
But it's a big factor, right?
It's a big factor.
I don't think it'll have a massive effect on Bitcoin.
I did a video on this the other day where I talked about the example. Last time we saw a big sell-off in equities where in this move down,
16% or 17% move to the downside in just two weeks for the S and P.
You know, Bitcoin only made like a 2% lower low, right?
It really didn't cascade further, uh, as many people expected.
Uh, and that was in the March, April lows.
So we could see this break to the downside.
Sure. You're going to the March, April lows. So we could see this break to the downside. Sure,
you're going to see a knee jerk reaction. Sure, you're probably going to see some low sweeps
on all coins and Bitcoin, but maybe it's not detrimental. Why? Well, because Bitcoin's
already been, Bitcoin and crypto have been in a downtrend for five months now, right? We're 55%
off the all-time high. Not that that means we need to be bottomed, but if we do see a downside with a bit of equities,
I think it was obviously front ran by Bitcoin.
I'm just really focusing on stacking sats and chilling.
I'm going back to the basics,
buying Bitcoin at what I think is value prices
and looking to swing those the other way
in the next couple of years.
So that's kind of where my head's at
and just tracking more so crypto stocks.
I think there's a lot of value in these crypto stocks
and they're a lot more reliable to play
rather than your all coins right now.
Stack sats and chill yeah
louis taking it back to the good old days i think your line in the sand for bitcoin is 69
unironically nice you study memetic value man honestly the dow potentially topped at 50k um the s p can't break 7k bitcoin support is 69k
you can't tell me that mimetic value doesn't matter for markets oh it does
no really yeah go ahead go ahead no no i'm just i'm agreeing with you i like i like that level
because like i said we could backfill this liquidity everyone starts calling for the
deviation back to lows right and then you get your higher level instead right something like that so
yeah i like 69k as well closely monitoring the situation for the past five years. It's what it feels like.
Literally.
It's what it feels like. No, I agree. I mean, we had a pretty, like a very illiquid move up
overnight on Wednesday. So that was obviously off the back of a few things. That was off the
back of peace talks with Iran. And it was also off the back of the
Clarity Act or the crypto market structure bill getting passed. So you kind of had a dual dynamic
there. Today, what we saw was, at least this morning, we saw CVD rolling over and you also
saw open interest remaining elevated, which leads me to believe that longs hadn't
closed out their positions. Probably go flush those out, spot buyers taking profits,
kind of rolling over here. I think we see more downside. I think that we were up at range highs,
right? And I mentioned yesterday getting bullish right at range highs is usually not the best idea.
I want to be very careful doing that. But yeah, SPX 6900 came to fruition. But the only thing is
SPX 6900 didn't go to 6.9 billion. So one of the prophecies became true, the other one did not.
So, you know, one of the prophecies became true, the other one did not.
Why would I hold SPX 6900 when I can hold one SPX for 6900?
Exactly.
Exactly, Tommy.
What are we looking at?
Oh, this is what I was looking at.
I think we have some room to the upside here for Bitcoin dominance.
I see Barry's talking about that quite a bit um
eventually get a bottom of it underperform selective group so he's looking for a monthly
bearish divergence on bitcoin dominance i agree um i could definitely see that
and then he says back down to 40 the only only issue I have was looking at this cycle, this last cycle,
you know, something I did point out was not this cycle, but the next one, the next real bull market,
looks like we lost Louie, unfortunately. That's okay. I can throw up a chart here.
Was that the real adoption and integration cycle, in my opinion, is going to be the next one.
And we will find out very quickly if that is true.
Because if we remember at the beginning of this cycle,
you saw what pop off super hard.
You saw liquid staking narratives, NFTs, and memes.
And that's not really the narrative,
the beginning, the narrative builder that you want to
see entering into a bull market for institutional fundamental adoption. I do think we get that
at the beginning of the next bull market. If we do see RWAs pop off, I think there's a very good
likelihood that you're going to see Bitcoin dominance fall drastically when and wherever
that next bull market is. Um, but locally speaking
here, I do think Bitcoin dominance does look bullish. I think that we had, you know, our
pullback throughout the middle of last year and was kind of in confluence with each kind of alt
coin rotations that we've seen thus far the cycle, but we saw Bitcoin dominance trending up in a
higher, uh, you know, meaningfully higher throughout the entirety of the bull market. We never really saw that big rollover from Bitcoin. And that leads me to believe
if we enter into a prolonged bear market and we see, generally speaking, altcoins bleed against
their Bitcoin pairs, do we really think that Bitcoin dominance is going to roll over in a
meaningful way? I don't know if you're getting the same signal, Tommy, from Bitcoin dominance personally, but that's kind of what I'm looking at from Bitcoin dominance as a
whole. I'm not sure what to think about Bitcoin dominance here, man. I'll be honest. I felt like
I was maybe more confident on it over the summer, but, I'm really not so sure about what to expect. So
I don't know. I feel like the best case scenario for altcoins and Ethereum is probably going to be
a double top sort of pattern on Bitcoin dominance. But if we break the highs,
there's basically no ceiling for Bitcoin dominance,
in my opinion.
Like if you don't stop at the highs,
there's basically no ceiling.
So it's kind of a risky spot.
And I'm going to choose to be optimistic
and say I think we're going to double top.
But if we don't but if we don't that is deeply
problematic there's also the scenario too and this is something max and i have discussed um there's
also the scenario where bitcoin dominance actually goes down in a downtrend because
If Bitcoin really does give like a very large capitulation, like down from here, altcoins have kind of, they might just trade more correlated with Bitcoin. And I think some alt Bitcoin pairs are already kind of trying to be, like they're already kind of in their bottoming process at the moment. So, you know, we'll see. I think that's kind of one of the more interesting things that I need to see over the next few months to be a capital allocator in alts again. Yeah, that's fair. That's very, very, very fair. And I talked to you about
if bitcoin really does give like a very large capitulation like down from here
this this morning, but the total three ES pair in relation to Bitcoin and this chart only ever moved when we saw Bitcoin and price discovery.
You know, I think there's going to be value to be had when whatever bottom forms and wherever
that's at, whenever bottom forms and wherever that's at.
But as of right now, I think capital allocation and altcoins needs to be very selective.
And it's, in my opinion, a losing game from a probabilities metrics.
Like you're walking up to the blackjack table knowing that, you know, the house doesn't
have a slight, does not have a slight edge.
They have a massive edge against you if you're betting on alts here currently.
And it's a difficult, like that's a difficult pill for me to swallow wanting to allocate
capital and alts. Like I'm like, why would I want to do that?
Right.
I, I mean, I hate the casino as it is, but you know, if they had even better odds, I
mean, I would, I wouldn't even, I'd go like bet on a dog races or something.
I don't even know.
Like, um, so that's kind of how I'm looking at altcoins.
But to your point, if we go break this high meaningfully, there's effectively kind of no
ceiling for Bitcoin. And something I've been playing with that from a hypothetical situation
is, okay, we saw strong high time from bottom out of bitcoin dominance right we've been in this uptrend in a bull market mind you right this
uptrend did not happen in a bear happened in a bull um and so i'm thinking to myself
if we're entering into this historically if we see the pairs bleed against bitcoin alt pairs
bleed against bitcoin what does pairs bleed against Bitcoin,
what does this mean for the bear market, right?
I mean, structurally,
we've been holding up pretty well here.
This is a structure.
What's up, Louis?
This is a structure I kind of talked about
in the Discord this morning.
This is a, generally speaking,
this kind of structure is a bottoming formation.
And I know Jackus likes to
play these as well, but when you get some form of broader pullback or, um, you know, capitulation
or whatever it may be. And after your initial bounce, your, you set in your higher low. And
after you sweep that or not a higher low, but you set in some form of low. And after you sweep that
low, if you can structurally remain above that, that low that low i.e the one that we set back at the beginning of
november of last year then usually this then leads to continuation higher
and this is a very very very key you know descriptor for me on you know where i think bitcoin's at here i think that we got
you know our retest uh sweep of this low on bitcoin dominance i know i am charting um
a dominance pair whatever but this is kind of pattern recognition 101 for me um and and leads
me to believe too if i'm looking at some levels that I like to look at
on the lower timeframes,
you are kind of getting a retest right now
of your quarterly value.
And if this holds, I think that's a really good indication.
You're going to be rotating higher
and you're getting ultimately some form of compression
on Bitcoin dominance that I believe is going to lead
to the upside based off of the structure that's forming.
The reason I don't love to bid alts here is because I'm looking at two in particular. I'm looking at Sui and I'm looking at Pepe. And it's like these high timeframe trend
EMAs. Every time that we fired into them them we're selling off more and i want to see that
kind of like systematic selling that we've been seeing on risk within crypto stop like and i want
to see it ideally i want to see it shift to systematic buying i know it's it's going to be
it's much harder to time that regime than you know scooping it up at the floor but to me the regime is still selling alts at
these trend emas on a higher time frame more so than a bottoming process so i'm i want to be
skeptical about alts still but again i i do think that there are some alts for sure that are beginning to bottom against Bitcoin.
You're going to laugh when I say one of them, but LTC, BTC, I think.
I know it kind of has like no floor, but it kind of has no floor. So it's a bad example, but I don't really know if I think that's going to give a huge leg down from here.
Litecoin, Bitcoin, that is.
So there are some alts that are appealing to me just from like an XMR is probably another one just from like a Bitcoin pair standpoint.
But yeah, it's a little tough to pick alts here.
I believe in the chicken.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I always felt like someday Litecoin would run,
but I don't know how I feel about that, man.
It's just so rough trying to coin.
I mean, maybe you get a trend uh trendline deviation here on light coin i mean this is if you're getting creating like time and space below and
you're accepting below and yada yada yada i mean this really does not look good this is a huge trend that you're breaking here on litecoin um structures broken
kind of across the board you know nothing meaningful done really the entirety of the
bull market for litecoin here i mean would you get maybe 100 move off the lows
so i look at suey though back to suey to your point
so i look at suey though back to suey to your point
with these you know kind of we'll call them like scam scammery projects or whatever i could see
them just pinning price here i have a tough time with suey here and it's going to probably do
something similar to where what you saw in like
22 where bitcoin kind of continued to roll over and some alts just literally just flatlined right
because there's no buyers and majority sellers out of the market the only people that are trading it
are either insiders or it's just like the team themselves aping into the chart. And I mean, I could see something pretty similar here
where it just flatlines basically here on Sui.
I wouldn't want to take a short here on Sui personally.
Like you're in a high timeframe demand
and it just looks like, I mean, it looks limp, right?
And there's probably better realized volatility
to the downside in other names at this point.
It's hard to trade, I think, altcoins here.
Because it's like, you're either taking speculative shots at squeezes higher or trying to bet that they've already hit a floor.
And the flip side of that is, all right, are you really going to short an asset that's down this
much from the highs as if there's like no risk to doing that yeah yeah you gotta find a happy
medium of both of those things that's why i continue to like equities shorts more than any
other positioning in the market right now. I completely agree with that.
That's why the majority of my short exposure is equities.
The perp short I actually love right now is the Dow,
but they don't have it on Hyperliquid, only Ostium.
I'm surprised they don't.
I am too, honestly.
Vitalik hates me. I don't hate Vitalik
I did for like half the market cycle
and then ETH Bitcoin bought him
Tommy likes me because he's selling ETH
ETH is like my favorite asset to trade man
is it?
Is it actually?
And crypto, yeah.
Like when ETH trends, it's just relentless.
Yeah.
Yeah, so I'm liking some of the newer names.
Something like a monad is still something that's on my watch list.
It doesn't have years and years and years of built-up bag holders and resentment and hate.
It's still kind of shiny, brand new.
So I've been watching that.
It's putting in a nice base.
Oh, what coin sorry
um monad i made a comment this looks like the dollar super high time frame chart yesterday
like if you look at the dollar three month or something like that it looks a lot like the dollar
really yeah let's look at it it does let me throw this here it looks like where the dollar came up and took out these
highs at 25 cents i'm pulled up here i think if we get a sniff of bullish reversal whenever that
may come i think this could be a leader off the lows just a little sniff yeah just a little just a little um yeah
the dollar i'm really not bullish on the dollar chart man i am see this is where we differ
this is where we differ this is where we differ. This is where we differ. This is where we differ.
I am very bullish on the dollar.
I feel like it's bullish on a daily time frame,
but like on a weekly monthly, it's bearish.
It's kind of like my big fear that assets go down with the dollar.
There's just like no safe haven.
There is no harder.
Maybe Bitcoin.
It'll be Bitcoin.
The dollar's crashing and risk assets are crashing.
Eating some corn.
Some corn.
Some soybeans. Right. Soy soybeans right soybeans yes study rice futures
study rice futures
is it worth buying israeli stocks i think bidding emerging markets here is pretty reckless in my
opinion when you see what happened with cosby and the nike like bill cosby for a second
i i just think emerging market i i do agree. Emerging markets are probably
about to go into a super cycle,
but I do think they're all going to pull back
pretty substantially before that happens.
Let's look at that.
Let's look at some EEM.
Yeah.
Breakout trading
is the worst type of trading.
I cannot wait To bid EEM
Closer to 30 to 40 bucks
Personal
But I think if you're buying
Marketing markets here you are going to get
Wrecked
Yeah I completely agree
We have a guest on the show who's
Very bullish EM
on the spaces, that is. Good luck, sir, is all I'm going to say. Good luck.
I think this will let you bid range lows again around like $35. To me, it looks just like
the S&P or the dow in the 60s and the
80s right before you had the massive massive markup into the tech level i think that's where
these emerging markets probably are but what did it retrace the entire move first i think so
and it doesn't have to i could be wrong about that. But if U.S. equity is correct,
like emerging markets aren't going to be a safe haven.
They're going to trade more like a risk asset.
Oh, yeah.
USA, USA, USA.
I love my country,
which is why I'm long the U.S. Constitution right now
by shorting assets.
Hey.
Dude, look at this monthly RSI On EM
Absolutely not
Absolutely not
And the weekly
It just needs to cool off a bit I think
It just needs to cool off
Before the next rally
Take a seat son
i think gold is probably topping here i have a long open on it in relation to because i i i took
the long out because i knew the iran war was going to happen
or the iran debacle we'll call it was going to happen um and i did not expect it to sell off
into that genuinely i thought it was gonna do much better we rejected right off the supply and
then it just and then now it's looking to like a
little ed here do you think the structure looks at all like how it did um 2008 i was kind of asking
myself that question last night are we just like replicating kind of we're speed running essentially
2007 to 2008 2000 oh and here like that big correction there yeah it would be yeah if you take it from uh
if you were to like compare it from that tiny little blow off it had before the big correction
but so like a little a few months before that right here no i mean like the uh the oh this yeah that like if you were to take it from that
and then just put that on the current structure are we just kind of speed running something
similar which would mean gold corrects from here but ultimately does go higher
just kind of speed running like you think it's in here um yes roughly i need to drop this on the lower time frame you're probably gonna have to put it on
on the lock
yeah something like that i see what you're talking about that shoulder formation
yeah
would set up a really nice long later in the year as well
something like that yeah i'm just kind of like locally speaking we don't hold a 30-day rolling
vwap i'm out of the position i mean it's been concrete support the majority of the time uh majority of the move that
we've had up i think if we lose that it's probably a bigger corrective phase iran is shorting oil
like literally wait actually why would they do that why would they do that brother why
unless like it's gonna de-escalate very quickly
but i don't see much stopping this momentum on oil right now and they could definitely slow down
and pause i think you see some like sideways price action this is what i'm looking
for on arch rock and exxon and all these all the names where you kind of start to see some
some sideways it's like all right i'll start taking some profits but until then this is a
freight train let the momentum cook let it play out no need to get hasty right and if you start to see some sideways right
it's like okay i should probably look to take some profits here you know
but until then let it let it rip let it cook
you know i mean this is a four year long like compression breakout this is this is like you
should not be fading look at this gap and go too i know you like this here louis yeah
no gap and go that looks like an altcoin that's gonna go rip straight to the eyes and then maybe continue ranging yeah well i would love that
my longs would love that oh yeah yeah nice entry on that one low key does that kind of look like um
does that kind of look like eth in 2024 um
does that kind of look like eth in 2024
you guys remember the first etf bump yeah oh yeah oh yeah it just looks like a it it probably is
going to play out somewhat similar to that if i had to guess but i mean you don't really want oil skyrocketing right like no no you don't
you really don't oh my god that's so clean holy shit tommy are you talking about
are you talking about here or here i'm talking about uh may 2024 in between those two oh right
in here no yeah the sudden sudden pump we had out of that
downtrending correction yeah put that uh put that downtrend in the pump on crude it's crazy man
so basically crude is going to 120. i could see it. Position for it.
Dude, I messed up so bad.
I remember when we got the BTC ETF and I was like, as soon as we get an ETF, it's like
a sell the news.
I should sell everything, right?
We got it and I did not sell and it literally would have marked the top for like
months and months and months and months what is this for eth i was like as soon as we get an etf
i am getting out like of the market and i would have i mean it would have been golden like i would
have been it would have been golden i would have gotten away with it too
if it weren't for you meddling kids
so you think it's like this tommy yeah yeah yeah take it very similar. I cannot lie.
That would be one hell of a moot for oil, though.
Yeah.
I mean, why not?
Yeah. So it came up into here. I think it came up into here
I think it comes up into 120
oh you're looking at
this I see what you're looking at
see I was looking at this localized
compression
what was it at
this does not look right is this on log What is that?
This does not look right.
Is this on log?
Yeah, that really is just so clean, isn't it?
All right, now I have a little bit of confidence in where I think oil's going.
Nice.
Okay.
Yeah. Yeah.
I have to post that on x are there any um
like what do you guys think of evs here i'm really curious what your guys thought
our thoughts with these look like that's a good question i haven't looked at that chart and that's going to be one of those assets where i just like keep telling myself i'll pay attention
to it when i need to and i'll just completely miss the trade yeah
i mean rivian still looks to me like robin. I'd love to buy it at like $9.
Range double bottom.
But I'm not bullish on Tesla.
Yeah, Tesla looks so bad.
That's why I asked.
I've been trying longs on Neo.
It's a tricky one.
Yeah.
Like down a little lower than where it is now.
But it doesn't seem like it can get off the floor.
But I've been noticing a lot of like the Asian stocks have been same way.
Like a billy, right?
I feel like it's been struggling to break out i think i haven't
been watching baba very closely but i'm assuming that it's kind of having some trouble chinese
stocks i'm not sure if they're coiling i know right like i really don't know what to think of them. I feel like, and correct me if I'm wrong
here, guys, I feel
like China invading Taiwan
is, for one, I do
think it's probably inevitable.
But I also view it as
like, it'll probably be bullish China.
Maybe bearish on the
headline.
But a dip to buy.
Yeah, yeah, i could see it evs maybe in 20 years well here's what i will
say you want to buy ev stocks before the actual adoption of evs if you're buying it after the
adoption like there's no longer a speculative premium or a speculative discount yeah i saw a tesla dealership today for the first time ever like
i've never seen it yeah like you saw what tesla dealership they're building it right now yeah it's
like i was like a lowe's i was on this like highway that i live by it's been closed for years and then
i drove by yesterday and i was like holy shit tesla dealership i didn't know those were a thing so that's interesting
yeah we have one kind of right by where i live um they had so they shipped in a ton of cyber trucks and there's like this huge corporate
like block a real estate block and they rented out all the corporate um like parking lot space
and parked all the cyber trucks there there was like had to have been like 200 cyber trucks
just in this parking lot it was it was like nuts to see it looks like something out of a
like a futuristic sci-fi story or something.
For real.
So you get blinded looking at that.
I think Chinese stocks like Baba here, I think they look good.
I do.
I wouldn't buy them just yet, but I do think that they're going to be buys.
Baba is a little bit more clear for me than Billy. You had your high timeframe accumulation,
really nice switch or shift back to bullish market structure. Looks to be setting in a
higher low. Nice reset here is going to happen on the RSI, you know, and I look at Billy and I mean,
these aren't going to be like sexy names in my opinion that, you know, are going to,
you know, going to do absolute numbers, but same thing for Billy, like high timeframe accumulation.
You didn't get your compression on the back end, break up through it, had a pretty vertical trend
happening, you know, makes sense. sense you pull back you're coming up into
arguably like all the supply up and you know up above 31 supply reject off of it get some form
of reconsolidation before then a bigger move but i think they look pretty good and if i'm looking at
like rivian i can tell you exactly what that billy structure reminds me of because i've traded it before what it was the vix in october september of 2023 the vix in september
of 23 yes it probably does not end well for billy though if it plays out the same because
i was expecting a bigger move on the vix um during that period and it ended up breaking down
talking about exactly the same but just kind of like the
slow grind that keeps selling off at progressively higher highs
i have been burned by that pattern before therefore it is ingrained in my brain i'm i don't
know maybe billy comes back down into like the teens yeah that would be i don't know i don't know
if i see i don't know if i see that but we we'll see. Obviously, I think it's something you could allocate, you know, a portion of your equity spot holdings to and kind of just, you know, add it in there for diversification.
Don't oversize into it because you're really not going to be, in my opinion, capturing.
There's not a ton of EV here, but it could hedge out some of the other holdings.
Emerging markets.
I mean, I definitely want to be,
you definitely want to be allocated, I think,
to emerging markets coming out of probably like
the end of this year and next year.
Because I don't really think that team is going away.
Is China an emerging market class?
Or are they like more of an established market now?
I don't know.
I kind of view their markets as in the same category
as an emerging market.
I think if they didn't have such... Established than these other places. i kind of view their markets it's in the same like category as an emerging market but i think
if they didn't have such established than yeah these other places i think if they didn't have
such crazy regulatory controls on their financial markets it they would have a much much bigger
or broader bull market that it would have happened uh but they impose such crazy restrictions on their stock
market i think it's actually a big hindrance in a way yeah because you want free capital
you you really do especially with stock markets and financial markets as a whole so
i think rivian to your point is going to be a fantastic buy
um and i think is is definitely worth an add and just from
like a sentiment perspective i think rivian cars are sexy i think rivian cars are completely
on tesla um i i love their cars i do i think rivian their truck is okay the rivian suv is
sexy though i think they did a great job with it we have a
ton of rivians over where i am yeah yeah it's very much a denver car everybody got those uh
like electric credits you know for like solar and ev cars so um but i i i really like their car and
because of that i think it's a buy you know it's like one of those things where it's like you drink Coca-Cola,
you should buy Coca-Cola stock.
You drink Pepsi, you should buy Pepsi stock.
There's been people that have historically done that.
They drink Coca-Cola, they drive a Ford.
They, I don't know, use-
They drive a Ford.
They use baby powder.
So what do they do? They bought 3M, use a Ford, use bait. They use baby powder, you know, so what did they do?
They bought 3M, they bought, you know, Ford and they also bought Coke, right? So it's one of those things. He does enjoy some Coke to each their own.
Sometimes it is that easy.
Yeah, I mean, it really should be, you know if for for the majority of people you know where
just buy what you enjoy you know or you see other people enjoying right like yeah yeah oh wow those
those mcdonald's have been really busy lately you know did you guys see the video of the McDonald's CEO? Yeah.
Didn't even want to eat their burger.
Our new product.
I mean, I mean, burger.
It's like, wow, you sold me, brother.
Dude, all the other CEOs are like clowning on them.
Like there's like the Wendy's CEO came out, the Arby's CEO.
Also, Arby's is disgusting in my opinion, except for the curly fries.
It used to be good. I don't even trust it enough to try it anymore but i used to have
but i see the decline across the quality of other fast food chains and i'm like i am not
going to chance it with fast food roast beef no that's horrible but it was fire like i will not i'm not going to tolerate just like blatant
arby's slander like i did enjoy arby's for a little bit dude i love their curly fries their
curly fries were great nearly yeah dude but he's like he's like eating this arby's sandwich and
he's like throwing the sandwich around and like opening it up and like you know
fingering the roast beef and he's like oh look at that roast beef and like you know and then
he literally stands up he takes his belt off unzips his pants and then sits back down i'm not
even kidding you and he's like this is how you should eat a roast beef sandwich i'm like bro what is going on right now you're gonna get us banned from youtube
keep telling this story like what is going on right now if you have not seen it, it's a meme. It's an absolute meme.
It's hilarious.
But like the Wendy's CEO, dude, he eats the whole hamburger, right?
Dude, I think Wendy's is trash now, honestly.
As a fast food burger connoisseur.
Really?
I ordered, okay.
So, I mean, the context is important, right?
A few months ago, I ended up ordering Wendy's at night.
It's probably like one in the morning.
The burger I got, it was worse than McDonald's, man.
And I don't hate McDonald's burgers for the record.
I kind of like them.
They're just small.
This was like the worst fast food burger I'd ever eaten in my entire life.
Now, I will say Whataburger is the worst fast food hamburger i've ever eaten in my life
fuck you i'm not even kidding i will not i will not let you slander him like that
dude i will not let you say that i okay i'm gonna be having what a burger this weekend
okay the issue is i will probably, so we went to a concert.
It was two o'clock in the morning.
Whataburger had just come to Kansas City.
There was like a line around the block.
We literally waited 45 minutes to get Whataburger.
It was like new.
It was the only thing that was open.
I get it.
It's the most stale bun I've ever eaten in my life.
The meat was like under a food lamp.
I had to have been for like
an hour or two like the lettuce was soggy it was awful i have had what a burger in texas
it was good i will say i will say but the one i had in kansas city was easily hands down the
worst fast food hamburger i've ever had i'll i'll be i'll be
honest though i had a whataburger in new mexico that was it was absolutely awful so yeah i can
understand where you're coming from but it hits a sensitive part uh because that's like when i was
when i was younger whataburger was by far my favorite fast food burger chain and the quality
has gone down a lot over the last 10 years which makes me sad but like i saw there was something about what a burger back then that was just
so good and ironically you know who bought them private equity i'm surprised we haven't talked
about private equity yet on this show that's a pretty good uh that's a pretty clean transition
right there um let's talk about blackstone blue owl these i got it i gotta say
real quick you see the black rock today mark down alone i did like to zero from three months ago
before we get into this tommy what's and louie what are your guys favorite hamburger spots
five guys yes louis let's fucking go my guy i'm probably gonna say i would say it used to be
like since whataburger declined i would usually say five guys but i feel like five guys has
kind of fallen off a little bit too what i think has the freshest ingredients is shake shack
what i think has the freshest ingredients is shake shack yeah that's fair shake shack has very good
chicken also so like i get the chicken bites two double cheeseburgers their hamburgers are just
tiny though like i literally like four bite their hamburgers dude that's how i feel about mcdonald's
i went to in and out in scottsdale it was pretty damn good in and out has the best burger prices by far yeah
and they ran a good it was like a very well-ran business i was i was quite impressed
they like call your number out and they say please
come get your food order five please see Coaster aren't used to that. They're usually like, hey, here's your food.
There's a pizza place by me, actually, that has incredible burgers.
I know them for their burgers now, not their pizza.
But their pizza is also just phenomenal.
Getting hungry now, guys.
Yeah, I'm about to cook it.
I might have to get Shake Sh shack at the airport later today.
Are you traveling?
I'm traveling, not abroad, but I'm traveling to Phoenix.
You say it's a vacation.
I guess.
We're going to pump.
Well, okay. So until Sunday night. we're gonna pump until uh until sunday night louie you got to be careful saying that because the last times i traveled was um august of 24 that was a japan carry trade yeah um and then March of 25.
So I jump on a plane in five days.
Great.
Great.
Good, good, good.
All right, Blackstone.
Back to Blackstone.
That was, I mean,
that's our typical Thursday, Friday off topic rant, man.
I'm happy it could be about cheeseburgers.
Much more appealing than horseburgers.
Dude, I'm starving now.
I'm so hungry now.
I have leftover steak from last night that I'm going to have for lunch.
If that makes you feel any more hungry.
But all right.
Yeah, let's close the show on a good note. Let's talk about some private equity names. I don't feel any more hungry. But all right. Yeah.
Let's close the show on a good note.
Let's talk about some private equity names.
Because I feel like most people aren't really paying attention to how bad these charts look.
Like, I don't know if you guys have looked at the Blackstone chart recently, but it's dire.
It's dire. And Blue Owl has now sold back to cycle lows.
These are, you know, private equity companies, BlackRock. I'll give you the exact headline here.
But we're seeing some cracks in private credit markets, which when I look at HYG, I'm not really surprised to see that.
But yeah, BlackRock slashed the value of a private loan to zero three months after assessing its value at 100 cents on the dollar.
Yeah.
So how much of the private credit value in the market is just completely fake
uh a lot of it and we know this right we know this but that i think that's the difficulty with
you know that trait specifically is private credit is an illiquid market so how do you
actually end up marking it down and i i've been kind of thinking to myself about this this week. And it's really kind of, I think it's a result of the fact that we're seeing
all of these different sectors now start to crack. You know, we saw crypto, we're starting, I mean,
we saw software over the last few weeks. I'm sure we could highlight some other, like, I mean,
memory stocks have sold off from the high. So we're seeing, I think, just like weakness in all of these individual sectors start to add up for these private equity firms.
What do you think about that? I think there's a big risk in the market right now.
I mean, you talked about it probably two weeks ago. You talked about the, maybe it was you maybe somebody else was talking about but oracle
and open ai for instance open ai has to meet 1.5 trillion dollars in deliverables
how are they going to do that right geez yeah how is open ai going to be able to do that when 80 of the revenue
is literally based off a 20 a month subscription model um i mean you have to sell so many of those
i mean you have to sell like what like i don't even know like a billion, a billion of those subscriptions to meet that. You know,
I look across the board too. And like you said, I mean, they've just been writing like these checks,
just like writing checks, like it's nobody's business. And it really reminds me of, and I
talked to Tommy about this this like the data centers remind
me of fiber where fiber was huge i mean they were putting it in everywhere and then everything went
to uh towers and then after everything went to towers it was like i think we're talking about
food fiber i was like what is he talking about louis daydreaming over here to get off the call um no but like everything went
to towers and then like none of this fiber gets used anymore you know and the microsoft ceo came
out last week and he said the real commodity is not the data centers the commodity for ai
is your algorithm and your compute or your computation
right and how efficient it is in using the compute and the models that we're training these ai
ais on are only going to get better and better and better and better and if we're trying to meet
quote-unquote current demands but let's say that these models use like a new model uses a fifth
or even a tenth of the compute that the current ones do very quickly then the data center supply
essentially becomes oversaturated um and i think people need to be very careful and very mindful of that and apple is very smart
they're they realize this and they're saying hey you guys can go out and do all that stuff once we
figure out what works and you guys show what works then we'll enter into the game right
apple has had like negative capex this past right? Where you look at all the other companies
and I mean, it's hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars.
And so the companies have spent all this money,
you have to fortify your balance sheet
and you do so by what?
By generating cash.
But these data centers are not doing that, right?
And so it's a one way,
it's a one way train, right? It's complete outflow and their inflow is based off of their
current business models, but not coming from the build outs for, you know, the data centers and
their quote unquote future business models. And they haven't been able to figure out how to
monetize that. And if you can monetize that in a meaningful way, you then justify the spending. But right now it's very
difficult to justify that spending because things will become more efficient. And those chips too,
they don't last forever, right? They last maybe three years running on full capacity, 24, seven,
yada, yada, y yada maybe five at most seven um
and then you have to replenish right and so you got to be very careful to where these balance
sheets the big guys the players mega cap their balance sheets at a certain point will get to a
sheets at a certain point will get to a you know to a to a period where
equity shareholders are going to be like hey we need you guys to justify this and because of that
we don't think that it's justified we're going to re-rate and we're going to you know we think
you should be valued at you know a lower multiple. And then that's when things become repriced.
To me, it's almost like equities are going to have their own spring 2022 moment that crypto had,
where all of those altcoins with egregious FDVs got marked down like crazy. To me, that's almost kind of
what I think it's going to end up looking like. Because you think about all the altcoins that were,
you know, venture deals, private equity, seeded in 2021, or, you know, that were launched before
that, but just had these FDdvs that you simply could not justify
uh at the current valuation of the market and i mean yeah the rest is history we know what
happened to those altcoins i'm not saying that i think that you're going to see equity charts
like high-end equity charts necessarily do that but i mean we saw how quickly that air can get let out of those valuations in real time.
Oh my God.
Oh no.
Have you heard that conspiracy?
Where all the cow hides at?
What?
Like we.
Are you about to ruin Panda Express? i haven't had panda express in years
so actually no it's just basically this thing like we eat x amount of um cows every single day where
does where is all the hides going kind of thing oh god don't make me think i'm, I'm not even going to interclean this rabbit hole today.
I don't have the mental,
I don't have the mental energy for it.
I think it's a good place to wrap.
I think that is a good place to wrap.
Hopefully you guys enjoyed the show.
I felt like it was a good mixture of fun and alpha.
Talked about a whole bunch of topics regarding the current market, where we
think things are going, and obviously where price is at right now. But if you enjoyed the show today,
a reminder that we host Market Check throughout the week when the New York Stock Exchange is open
on the following days, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. So not Tuesday, but you can expect to
see us every other weekday. Like I said,
when there's not a holiday for US markets. And our typical start time is around 1130 to 1140 AM
Eastern Standard. So we'll catch you guys again tomorrow to wrap up the week. Of course, also
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So make sure to stay following and subscribe to both.
So you can be notified, not just when we schedule those spaces,
but of course, also when we go live.
I think the vibe on those spaces has been absolutely fantastic recently.
So if you haven't been tuning in, I think it's a great time to do that.
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especially on these days where we have a ton of volatility in the market. So definitely check that out when you guys have
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uh to finish off the week thanks you thanks you thank you again and of course as always guys stay
