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How the Hell Do We Play This Market? With @TheFlowHorse
Recorded: April 9, 2025 Duration: 1:05:44Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto traders explored the evolving landscape of the market, highlighting trends of increased volatility, cautious trading strategies, and the impact of traditional finance on Bitcoin's performance. As altcoins face declining interest, the conversation underscored the importance of adapting to new market dynamics and the potential for long-term growth in traditional markets.
Full Transcription
All right, so we are live now, so hopefully we get some people joining us.
I'm pretty sure that will happen quite shortly.
And we have the illustrious, the controversial, the quite well-known, a good friend,
A good friend and always good to see commentary on the timeline
from the Flow Horse, previously cantering Clark.
Ryan, it's good to have you, sir, on the Blockmates stream.
We don't seldom do a combination of YouTube and live stream on Twitter.
Obviously, exceptional individuals for exceptions.
So dude, welcome.
It's fucking awesome to have you live and in person.
That's been a long, long overdue.
How are you?
I'm doing well.
It's good to be here.
Yeah, it's been a long time.
A lot has happened outside of the market.
You know, being a dad is, we were just talking about it it changes
everything but uh it's good to be on here i mean we could pretty much take this anywhere because
there's a lot to talk about we're living in yeah so fucking upside down world so just for for anyone
who's listening and i think the main objective for for today's chat is to just kind of get a perspective.
I mean, it's going to be a perspective and there's many out there just
in terms of what's going on with the market. I'm really curious to find out
how you approach the cycle quite differently. I know that you've
had one of the best trading periods in your career
and I want to just kind of like look at
that and then also just to get your understanding of what's playing out at the moment and what the
different variables are in this, you know, this crazy kind of like all these levers that are being
pulled at the moment. I honestly am really struggling to make sense of it uh i mean first and foremost because
i'm not a macro guy and then you know how do you actually navigate the space so just to kick it off
for those of you who don't know who the flow horse is um yeah he does trenches he does traditional
markets he does across the board uh very much an order book trader. And yeah, he's been around the block. He's been doing this for
a very long time. And to kind of be dismissive of what he has to say is at your own peril.
But just jumping straight in, what are your thoughts on what's playing out at the moment?
You know, just kind of top of mind. What are you thinking?
I mean, we're in, you know, it's we're in pretty much uncharted territory. I'm not a macro
guy by any means, but I definitely respect what is taking place, especially when it's something
that has this type of gravity. This is probably one of the biggest global shifts and global
relationships between world leaders and countries
that we've had. And I don't know, as far as I can look back, I'm 40 years old now. I think we're
in unprecedented territory, especially if things were to continue and it wasn't just
a really stupid negotiating tactic. And the market has paid for that. I think
this will probably persist. We're going to be in a headline-driven environment.
It's really tough to extrapolate on any one direction while we have, you know, Trump and
Besant and policymakers getting on the mic like every hour, kind of countering what they
said during the last hour. So, you know, last week on the second, we got hit with the, you know,
what was it? Liberation day or whatever. Trump's his meme poster. And it's funny because I told
this story a few times now, but I was out to dinner with my wife and before the announcement,
before his presentation, I put on a decent short on BTC around 86.6, I believe this was,
we ended up spiking up a little bit. But I looked at my phone and I don't do it often at dinner when
I'm out with my family, but I looked at it, I see the market gap down. I'm like, okay, that's
interesting. And then I saw Trump's image or the image of Trump rather holding up a board
with all of the tariffs listed. And one, like they weren't even alphabetized. Like it seemed
like a meme to begin with. I thought crypto Twitter had taken whatever actual image there was
and just threw on these like exorbitantly, these blown out numbers as far as tariffs go.
these blown out numbers as far as tariffs go. But sure enough, he was serious. And the motivation
behind that, I think that a lot of people think that the idea was that he was going to go really
deep so he could walk back. I don't know if he anticipated this kind of response by the market.
A lot of people, though, have been sort of hinging their bullish stance around the
Trump administration because they assume that Trump and this administration would use the market as
more or less a benchmark of their performance in the White House, which clearly hasn't been the
case. And people could have been really early to the possibility of this happening and markets
pulling back at least a modest amount versus what we have if they listened early whenever they said
that they're not looking at the market, that some pains would be necessary. So there are hints at
this, but I don't think anyone saw that it would get this extreme. Just now we've had the first, you know, kind of positive
response by the market because Trump had come out and said that, I guess they're, you know,
he's effectively raising the China tariff to something like 125%. I think it was 104 before,
right? Effectively. And then that 90 day pause that was hinted at is actually legitimate for, I guess,
75 countries. And this is a good time for this to happen because overnight, again, this is not my
forte or area competence whatsoever, but overnight there was a ton of bond market stress.
We had the 30 year hitting five, we had the 10 year at four.5. If the idea was that they were going to be taking these actions in order to bring rates down, well, clearly this is ineffective.
There's some speculation as to why those rates are up or why those yields are up, whether or not it's the basis rate coming off, whether or not it's China dumping treasuries to protect the yuan.
I don't think it really matters that much as much as
those levels are unsustainable. And if we have something where the swaps or treasury market
begins to crack, which I think we're close to that, then the Fed will have to intervene.
And I think the market's kind of trying to sniff this out or trying to sniff out whether or not Trump's going to walk back things a little bit more.
I, you know, honestly, it's, it's a clusterfuck.
It's really hard to describe it any other way.
Yeah, I think the, the, the big question is how are you navigating this from kind of like
from kind of like a short-term trade perspective and then also from a long-term trade perspective.
a short-term trade perspective and then also from a long-term trade perspective?
Yeah. I mean, from a long-term trade perspective, when it comes to equities, I think you could bet
on, it's hard to say this with a lot of certainty after saying everything I said, because there's a
lot of things that clearly have changed. And I think, you know, we've crossed the Rubicon in a
sense where relationships are not going to go back to what they were previously. And changes like this will take time to pan out and be reflected in markets. But I think from,
I still take sort of a long-term stance that you could bet on US markets and that will come out of
this however long it takes. And when you have the NASDAQ 20% off the highs and you have the S&P 20%
off the highs, if we're just talking about traditional markets, I think you have to participate here. If you ever wanted to know when it was a good
idea to get involved in the market and you're buying highs constantly on the way up, it's like,
no, the reality is where we sit relative to something like the 200-week moving average with
the S&P, 20% off the highs. I know it's quote unquote, bear market territory. This is where I would want to start to look to gain some exposure. If you have, you know,
a multi-year timeframe approach. Uh, I think, you know, a lot of people probably do have that with
their stock market portfolio. Um, as far as my trading goes though, it is, it's always confined
to the week, right? Uh, Very rarely am I holding positions for long periods
of time post all time high. If anything, it's just shortened now. It's more of like this
environment where it reminds me of when I started trading where we're trading with a news squawk,
looking at level two in the tape. And really that's it, a couple of levels on the chart
and trying to pick off those extremes when the market is responding violently to headlines. It's tough to make any
kind of overly certain bets right now about where the market is going to be over the next few months.
Even this move that we're seeing this morning. So I think if you just look at a couple details with
how the market has shifted, even from a liquidity standpoint, the market is never in good condition when the VIX is this elevated.
The VIX broke 40 for the first time in a long time.
Besides this aberration that happened last year, I think around October, we're above 50, I think, still on the stream.
I think the VIX is at, what is it?
No, excuse me, back below 35.
So that's probably, we probably had some kind of vol crush after Trump's announcement. But the VIX
at these levels, the S&P is extremely thin. So if you looked at like the top of book liquidity for
the S&P futures contracts, the E-mini, there was like one or two contracts trading in and out.
And the spread was like 50 cents at times.
And one contract in the ES is $250,000 notional.
So that's extremely low considering it's usually something where you could do eight to nine figures near the best bid or best ass pretty easily.
Not easily, but it's usually there.
And right now markets are just, you know, they're responding as you would in a really volatile environment. Um, so I'm dialing everything down, everything from position size to my ideas
length. So trades have to work fast. If they don't work fast is probably, you know, the longer
something takes to work, the less likely it is to be a positive outcome for me. Um, and I'm just
playing things really close. I had, I had the benefit of having a really nice
exit this cycle. Um, I played a really strong hand right after the election, held that through
double down on a bunch of positions, and then was able to exit within just a couple percent of the
highs. Uh, a lot of luck there obviously, but it's allowed me to have this kind of cushion to where
I don't feel, I don't feel like I need to get involved at this point to make up any ground or anything like that.
And I think we're, I think we're due for a decent amount of this kind of environment
moving forward rather than anticipating that this is going to just kind of end on a headline.
Yeah, I find it quite interesting that you did bring up kind of like the post-election and then inauguration and kind of like your commentary around on the timeline was quite contrarian at the time, even though kind of like, you know, the kind of hindsight is 20-20, you know, cliche was it was obvious you know and and what made it obvious for
you at that time to take a shorter term view is it because of the nature of the way that you trade
that you acted on on those kind of like cues that you were seeing and you were very open about it so
i mean that's what i found interesting you were basically like calling it every step of the way. Like, I think we're at the top.
I think, you know, this is overcooked.
This dude is not going to be good kind of going into post-inauguration.
And you were very open about it.
Were there certain cues that you were picking up,
besides obviously getting lucky because that's an important part of it,
but was it kind of like the way that Trump approaches things or was it just the general kind of like macro scenario or
the market overcooked? I mean, what were the cues that you were looking for at the time?
I think it was a bunch of things. I think that, so there's a bunch of things worth noting. Like
it's not only people in crypto that took this trade using crypto as a way to express the trade.
Right. There is definitely a lot of capital that came outside of this market, more touristy that was trading in this as well.
It was looking at this as sort of a singular event. Right.
You know, point A being the election and the end result being the the inauguration.
So I think there was that kind of path originally from the
outset, at least how long the trade might last. And Trump made it extremely hard to hold a position
right around the election and especially with the launch of, excuse me, not around the election,
the inauguration, especially with the launch of, you know, Melania with Trump,
with everything that he was saying about the market. There was a lot of kind of, you know,
I think I remember saying when Trump token launched, like everyone doesn't realize how
bad this is for the market. Like this is not a good thing, but people were so wrapped up in the
fact that like they had their guy and their guy was talking to their market in a positive way.
And I just saw it as like the market had reached a fever pitch.
And it would be very difficult to find more buyers at that level
after we're sort of at this celebratory period where we break 100K.
And then we have our guy basically talking to the masses,
talking about crypto, launching his own coin.
It's a matter of like who right now is not in this market?
Who has yet to like discover
what's taking place, who doesn't have some exposure. So there was a little bit of that.
And then from a just a market feedback standpoint, you had implied volatilities blowing out at the
at the top, you had a really close level to define right originally on the way up, you know, this
before the inauguration,
the December 16th pie. So that was like the first tap of, I think like 106, 107. So from a market
structure standpoint, you know, you had a really clean level to define, you know, either continuation
or reversal. And then not only that, like 100K is for the longest time, 100K was like a psychological level, like a dream, right?
You know, for people that have been in Bitcoin for a long time, you know, six figure Bitcoin, like we're going to break 100K.
It just seemed very unlikely that the masses of people, especially people that have been in BTC for a long time, would be able to very quickly over a short period of time turn something that was an extreme target, right?
Sort of an emotional climax level into an immediate fair value level or below fair value level worth buying.
or below fair value level worth buying.
You know, it's kind of like,
this is the ceiling that we've been talking about
for how many years, one of the ceilings,
one of the major targets,
how likely is it that that would immediately turn in support
into support rather than an area
where people are really happy to take some off
and to let things, you know, sort of play out over time.
So from a positioning standpoint,
from sort of a entire world cheering for crypto standpoint, and for just a lot of bad omens adding up, it seemed like, okay, if I'm going to de-risk because we've broken above the all-time high, and now if I took all those details away, we're back below it. We have this kind of ugly swing failure that almost all the time, if you do a quick eyeball test has resulted in at least lower prices back to the lower the range.
I'm just going to take this. I'm really happy with walking away with everything at this point
and hedging everything completely. And my criteria will literally be if we're able to find support
and break back through it, that's fine. Like we have another momentum trade. Um, but I could sit this one out and that, you know, by, by a little bit of skill and by luck, the market completely unwound from there.
Uh, and I felt no, no need to, to get in early because it's very rare that you have big breaks
in market structure and big changes on the high timeframe that don't themselves then take a long
time to fix. So if you're done correcting through price,
you're still going to take time to correct through time.
So a good amount of luck, good amount of skill,
probably more luck, but it ended up working out
because for that entire week,
I think leading up into inauguration
and maybe just a couple of days after it,
I was being such an asshole about selling Bitcoin
and telling people that this was the high.
You got a lot of, dude, you got a lot of hate for that, bro. I remember.
And I'm thinking at the time, I'm like, I'm like, oh my God, this is, I'm going to eat shit if this ends up trending after.
You fucking 125 or 130, what the fuck? Yeah.
Yeah, no, it just, it, it worked out, but it, there was, the trump token was a bad omen in my opinion
it just sealed it so i don't know you know the thing is like i think the trump token
would have been probably not fine i think at the time it might have been fine if they hadn't done
the shit show with the melania token but i think the odds of the Trump token just going south,
regardless of Melania, was probably 70-30 in favor of it going south.
It could have been something quite cool and positive,
but it never was going to be.
I think greed and ridiculousness was always going to land up dictating
going to end up dictating that whole meme timeline anyways. A question I, for myself anyways, that I
that whole meme timeline anyways.
really would like to kind of interrogate is from your perspective, you just kind of gave a clue
that if there is a break in markets, I think you said structure takes a long time for it to fix.
Do you believe that that has happened now? And do you think that it's going to takes a long time for it to fix. Do you believe that that has happened now?
And do you think that it's going to take a long time to fix what has happened over the last week or so?
Yeah.
So the break in market structure that I'm talking about, well, one, we had the high timeframe swing failure,
which on its own, if this occurred in a vacuum, absent all those other details,
would have been enough for me to take the trade. Because at that point, it's like you're so close
to the... If you have a good entry, if you have a lucky entry and you're close enough to the high,
I mean, you're in validation. You have some cushion. But the break in market structure that's
more significant was trading back within that range for multiple periods and then ending
up breaking below the 90s, right? So breaking into where we are right now and trading within
this gap. So I see it as like, it's a broken chart. Relatively speaking, just the other day,
when I was talking to people in the chat, I was saying how from a risk reward standpoint,
like contextually, this is a good area for a long to develop, um, because markets are not going to go straight down. Like unless
we're looking at some kind of, unless we have some kind of catalyst, um, and the markets are
in free fall live, like market is going to settle, bounce trend, settle, bounce trend.
And even a downtrend that's extremely violent has periods of relief.
So from a textbook market structure standpoint, we basically tapped the prior all-time highs
of that summer range. I think that was what the high in early March. We had a swing failure
of these lows currently. From a risk-award standpoint, I could see relief
developing here that does take us back to where we opened this year, right? Right around, what is it?
It might be like the low 90s or something. And that doesn't necessarily have to mean anything.
That could just be the relief rally that gets sold and then we end up continuing lower. I personally don't see how markets are going to recover and just go back
to trending in the very near future. So anything for me that I'm playing, even on the long side
for BTC, is under the impression that it's still going to end up failing and that we have longer
to go before we're even close to another all-time high. Unless, again, the Fed starts doing something
that's related to or interpreted as maybe QE. And you could see some panic buying of BTC,
but there's so many different outcomes you could sort of game plan hypothetically that are just
a waste of time. I think for all intents and purposes, broken charts tend to take a lot of
time to fix. And it's not, you know, this is not a crypto specific thing. It's not idiosyncratic
to crypto. If you look at equities, it's the same exact story. That's why like the beginning of,
the beginning of, I think this was like the beginning of February or January,
I had said that part of my thesis around why BTC was going to correct more largely was because we had this sort of Icarus print in NVIDIA.
So the Icarus print is like just a fancy way of saying we had a breakthrough all-time highs on really good news that immediately fell apart.
excuse me, that immediately fell apart. So I forgot what it was that Jensen had announced.
So I forgot what it was that Jensen had announced.
The market gapped up. And then a day later is below that open and was at the low and the
underside of the range that it had been since the beginning of December. So it was like, okay,
this is a failure sign in something that is carrying the index for the most part,
or is a large component of it um so things are just probably pretty tired
and you know the market often has to sell sell off before it can go higher
so just by the way i'm seeing w's on the four hour across the board s p which is quite interesting
in light of this relief bounce that we're having and i suppose suppose, I mean, I have to ask you, do you think that this
is going to land up being just another failure and then kind of like, like reject, come back down?
What are the chances if there ever is a chance that it actually there is continuation from this
relief bump? I mean, we've been correcting for a while. So I think you have to remember that even when it's time for the relief rally to arrive,
right?
I think you have to scale the length of that with the length of the correction, right?
So it's probably going to be sharper.
So we've already had a really sharp move off of the low for the S&P.
But the idea that if we have a relief rally that'll end in the first day that it occurs, I think that's obviously pretty unlikely.
I think the market ends up building more hope and creating the emotion that it's all behind us before we ever get to that point where it starts selling off.
OPEX, which is the end of next week, a lot of the hedges that were purchased to hedge any kind of
downside exposure below 51, below 5,000, it's much more unlikely that those are obviously going to
expire in the money. So you'll see that even from the dealer flow or the market maker flow,
the buying back of those hedges as those deltas begin to decay. And as, excuse me,
implied volatility goes down as well, will provide some kind of supportive mechanical flows in the
market, which are not the only flows in the market, which some people start to talk about
with too much gravity, like talk about options, Greeks, like they move the market on their own,
and that's it. There's obviously other flows as well, like as vol come down, vol control funds
start to buy back. As a trend starts to resume, you get more CTAs coming into the market on the long side and buying back when they're already short.
So there's this feedback loop that does begin to pick up and help prices move higher.
But personally, if you ask me the level, for the S&P, we were tracking, and it's pretty reliable level as well, the 200-day moving average, right?
So we're holding above the 200 weekly, which we've only broken that maybe once significantly in the last few years.
That was COVID.
We quickly made our way out of that.
You know, we tapped it back in 2022.
But COVID, we spent maybe a couple of weeks
below it. Before that, it was the global financial crisis where we had months below it, years below
it, and then the dot-com bubble. We're above that right now, but if we're talking about a relief
rally, I would still probably sell the 200-day just from a trend following standpoint. These
are like boomer
levels, but that's right around 58. So you could get a decent relief rally that takes us all the
way back up there and then still resumes lower. I mean, if you just look at the history of the S&P,
it's littered with examples of that, where you have these massive multi-week bounces.
It seems like the coast is clear, key levels are taken back, but there's a larger shift that has occurred and it's
not a matter of just the weather changing it's a matter of the climate changing so i don't know i
just this white house is i i don't think it's i think it's sending a pretty clear message to begin
with that it's not favorable for markets um even though people had anticipated the opposite right
it just i i have very bad feelings about this market.
Yeah. And I mean, I think your very bad feelings landed up kind of, you know, there's this,
there's this saying that Gary Player, very famous South African golfer came up with,
he said, the more, the more I practice, the luckier I get. And I think, I think in your case,
that would apply as, you know, you've been doing this
for a very long time. And even though there was a fair amount of luck, you've obviously been
practicing. So well done. Well done for putting the practicing, dude. I think just coming back
to kind of like the perspective that you've had in the way that you played the cycle is just obvious
question. And one that I've been dying to ask you is for,
for a while now is like,
what did,
what did you see different in the cycle compared to other cycles?
Maybe it's an obvious answer,
but maybe there's a little bit more there for us to kind of look into.
I mean,
the,
there is a definitely a difference in the composition of people that are involved because this is the ETF cycle, right?
This is a different cycle from that standpoint.
I think that what's clear because of that or partially because of that is that BTC has traded, has definitely bifurcated from the rest of the market.
In the past, you know, you speak about the broader crypto market and pretty accurately
represent it by referring to BTC. You know, everything else was some kind of second,
third derivative of that. That was higher beta that, you know, was something that was kind of like leverage exposure to BTC. And Bitcoin was pet
rock, was not exciting, and was underappreciated. And this cycle, while there has been definitely
pockets of outperformance in very specific areas, which is reminiscent of a maturing market anyway,
that's how markets work. It's rarely the case that
breadth isn't like that and that we don't have a ton of dispersion, except for a few cases far
in between. This cycle has been different because BTC, it seems like it's in its own market.
You have different people trading it now. It's more connected than it
ever was to traditional markets. It's always been correlated somewhat, but the connection
was much stronger over the last two years. And I think that it's becoming more obvious that
the cycles are, whatever cycles existed, are not going to continue identically into the future,
even though people have sort of hinged
much of their exposure around that.
You know, past is going to be,
past is precedent, right?
In this market, like all you got to know
is what the previous cycle did
and you'll be able to just, you know,
easily make it here.
It's not the case.
Like you have to be a picker.
It's becoming harder.
The market is way more efficient.
It's still an inefficient market relative to other markets, but it's way more efficient than it's becoming harder. The market is way more efficient. It's still an inefficient market relative to other markets,
but it's way more efficient than it's ever been,
you know, relative to itself over the last 10 years.
And I still see people that are kind of playing it like things haven't changed,
which is, you know, it's like you're not,
are you paying attention?
Because things clearly have.
But yeah, it's different in the sense that
BTC is completely outside of the crypto market, in my opinion. Not completely. I think it does
dictate the health of this market, but it's also not interesting to people outside of this market,
as much as people in this market think they are. You could see that based on the performance by ETH ETF. No one cares for it. The same can be
kind of extended to any other ETF that comes out, honestly. I think that the XRP ETF has a better
chance of doing well than the Solana ETF, just because so many boomers have been misled and
people outside of this market that are not in it at the bleeding edge believe that xrp
is this you know promising investment that that would end up happening right so i think there's
just been people have been uh taken by surprise this cycle and you know that's that's to be
expected like things are not going to repeat as they have in the past like that's just that's very
silly i mean the thing is though that you can't really blame people for being caught off guard
initially, because we've seen kind of like a progression of, you know, 2017, 2018 was obviously,
you know, probably the most insane thing that we've seen, despite what happened in 2021 2020 and 20 to 2022 um but then it almost
seemed like everything changed from that point onwards from 20 because 2018 and then 2022 were
very similar in that it was easy to make money i mean all you had to do was was throw a dart at a
dartboard and you would hit you know it was kind of like that and then like you said this cycle has been while you had to choose wisely and then for me the frustrating thing was
that it almost seemed like nothing was sustainable so if there was a move it would almost always
retrace for the most part you'd get like a 10 move and then it would retrace by like nine percent
and you'd have a one percent gain and you know And if you're not a proficient trader in a market like that,
you just aren't going to do well and you're going to get frustrated
and you're going to get topped up,
even if you've got a trending market that's going upwards.
And I think that's, from my perspective anyways,
that's where I think most people got caught out,
is that they thought that it would just keep going up.
They could go to sleep at night and they'd arrive a month later and everything would be great but
clearly that wasn't the case it was a market that was very much pick the right ones and you could
do that but then maybe out of you know a hundred that we're doing that seem to be doing positively
maybe five or six of them would have continuation over a long period of time. I don't know if you experienced the same thing from your time in the trenches in inverted commas outside of Bitcoin. I mean, just tell us
a little bit about the alts that you did trade and that you did you well. How did you approach them?
Well, yeah, to talk about your point for a second before that, I think that there's always this
phrase that's repeated
and something to the effect of, you know, we're waiting for other people to come to this market
to buy our bags. And that was legitimate in earlier cycles because just by a function of
time passing and something being newer at that point than old, there was more people discovering
it at once, right? It's not the case that like there's this large group of people that exist that don't know what crypto is at this point. Like we're well
beyond that. So this cycle, we didn't have like a ton of new buyers entering. It was a lot of,
you know, people that had been in here previous cycles, a lot of capital that was shuffling around,
not a whole lot of new entrants. There was definitely one set of new entrants that got
way more involved and that was through the ETF. And even most of those institutions,
they would share in their filings that they were exposed to BTC through the ETF, but they don't
have to share their derivative filings and they don't have to share to you that they are also
short in capturing the basis trade. So probably like 30, 40% of the ETF flow
is based on that. And that's just, listen, that's, I think people had to learn that lesson the hard
way. Like 2017 was wild. And that was because that was like crypto's beginning of its Gartner
hype cycle when everything was going to be related to the blockchain. You know, we were putting dog
food on the blockchain. Every company was going to use the blockchain. So people were really excited. But now as time passes, people kind of know like,
all right, no, we're just kind of telling ourselves these stories so we could buy these
assets that we know we're trying to sell anyway. There's very little belief and belief is what
makes things sticky, right? You could buy Apple on a 20% downtrend because you know, I use an iPhone,
my next laptop I'm looking to buy is the Mac you know, the Mac, like people are buying this product.
It's a legitimate promising product.
Everything in crypto is for the most part, um, a tool that will solve a problem that
is, you know, that does not yet exist or that people are not yet interested in, but at some
point they will be.
So we're getting into it.
It's all, it's way more speculative, clearly. So we didn't bring in that many people this cycle, unfortunately.
And I think that that is a sign that we need something new, right? We need better applications.
We need to sort of reconvene and establish what makes this unique. I think that's going to be
a really tough thing to do when most of the focus
has been on meme coins and things that are entirely nullistic at their outset. But that's
another conversation. And meme coins have helped people do really well. I just definitely was never
someone who believed in them too hard. As far as much of my trading this cycle, earlier in the cycle, it was, you know,
getting involved in AI many times over too early, because I was assuming that, hey, that's like a
narrative that that has some tangibility to it. Like we're using chat EPT, we're playing with
these image generators, AI is coming, you know, every other week, it's a new advancement, it's
exciting. And the tangible aspect of it was really other week, it's a new advancement, it's exciting.
And the tangible aspect of it was really important. And it was something that also you were seeing examples of in the outside world besides crypto. So you had crypto projects that
suddenly had become AI crypto projects. And a lot of that was just like changing websites to capture
the trend, right? Changing the keywords on your website. I saw a lot of projects do that. But I think that that trend, it seemed like it should have came earlier, never really arrived
in time. We had the AI, you know, the whatever, what were they called? The more recent ones,
AI memes and some of the other garbage that I can't even remember. Either way, never really
took hold the way that I think that it should have,
but there wasn't a whole lot there. There wasn't, you know,
a whole lot of truth to it. All right. It was all just, you know,
this is an AI project, but you know, at the end of the day,
most of them were like chat GPTs with wrappers on them.
Other than that,
like some of the trades that I took were just momentum trades and meme coins, but typically arriving late to the trend.
Most of my trading this cycle was, at least exposure-wise, was having positional exposure to BTC, just having exposure to that and doubling down on that.
down on that. I didn't trade all to ton. I mean, I, I was late to hyper liquid. Um, I was pretty
I didn't trade alt a ton.
I mean, I was late to hyperliquid.
much late to, I am mostly late to alts because I don't have my sort of nose to the grindstone
when it comes to all. So I'm not a trench trader by any means. So like, I know where my time is,
is best spent. Um, and that's good because not for nothing, like I didn't get my ass handed to me by being long a bunch of bullshit. I honestly,
I'm just so misanthropic about alts in this market. And I know there's plenty of stuff
that's going to come out and be legitimate and is promising and has teams working hard.
For example, over the last couple of days, there's two alts that are doing really well.
One of them is Fartcoin and one of them is Hyperliquid.
They're moving for completely different reasons, right?
They're still the flavors of this cycle to some degree.
So at the lows, they're doing really well.
They're fast to source out of the gate.
But people are buying Hyperliquid because it seems like tokenized equity in a really promising early project.
And because there's buybacks.
And people are buying Farcoin because they remember that the last time the market did well, Farcoin
did really well. So I'm happy to take momentum trades and alts. I'm often late to them.
I definitely don't spend probably enough time as I should, but I don't have enough time at this
point to like dig into the
trenches and and find the next iteration of you know dog coin or whatever it is that uh is is
capturing everyone's mind share yeah i mean you also i mean you are an honorary holder of of our
nfts uh one of our nfts which gives you access to the meal deal so if you ever are bored you're very
welcome to come and join us in discord um which you have free access to and i mean that's very
much you know we have this thing at block notes where we get frustrated sometimes because we're
always early and then we kind of like waiting for things to happen and then we lose a little bit of
interest and then everyone wakes up to it and we kind of like well
We told you so so you're very welcome to to join us at any time
But I know that you've got your own projects going I saw that you kind of got your discord channel going
So if anyone's interested in your perspective on the markets, I'm sure they can figure out how to get access to your discord
A little bit of a little bit of a
punt for what it is that you're doing and i've really enjoyed your telegram channel i think
you've been super honest about what you've been doing so whoever is short-term trading and wants
perspective on markets that i believe is very pertinent go check out the stable telegram i
think you've you've got it posted on your timeline somewhere
so for anyone who's wondering who this individual is and what he does he does have a telegram
channel and a new discord that um what are you planning to achieve with your discord i know that
you had some plans is there a bit of alpha there have you announced what you're doing or is it
yeah 100 so i so i started using
telegram um last year maybe this was like six months ago if i recall correctly and honestly a
lot of it came because i just i don't like twitter anymore um twitter has and i think there's a level
of nostalgia that takes place between people that have been around for a while where it's kind of
like oh you say that because you know you've been around here a while where it's kind of like, oh, you say that because, you know, you've been around here multiple times, but nothing's really changed. I mean,
in my perspective, it definitely has. Like the conversations used to be less noisy,
more constructive, you know, people helping each other. It's way more antagonistic right now. Maybe
it's like a sign of the zeitgeist, sign of the times. But, you know, for lack of better words,
and this is not something that's novel, right? Everyone says this, it's become a cesspool. To be fair, there is a ton of value
that exists, right? If you can curate a good feed, there's a ton of value actually in FinTwit
accounts. But what you'll notice is a lot of people in FinTwit are actually, you know,
working professionals, older people, they're mature. Not to be a dick, like a lot of people in CT are, they're babies, you know, they have no responsibilities. They're in their early 20s.
Like they got involved because they bought a shit coin. And then now they have a really strong
And then now they have a really strong opinion about the market.
opinion about the market. And it's like, all right, man, I don't have fucking time for that.
And it's like, all right, man, I don't have fucking time for that.
Like, you know, it's to not like, yeah, I'm not like toot my own horn, but sometimes it
feels like you're, you've been playing a pro sport for a long time.
And someone in the bleachers is like telling you that they could beat you in a game of
pickup ball or something.
I don't know.
It's, it just, it's become a negative place, right?
It's become noisy.
There's no real signal there for me. So I wanted to create my own space, right? It's become noisy. There's no real signal there for me. So I wanted
to create my own space, right? The telegram was perfect for that because it was just a channel,
like no one could respond back. I didn't have to deal with like, I hate to say it, like dumb
questions that I've answered numerous times. Stuff where it's like, just pull out of Google, man.
I've talked about this too many times. I'm getting old. That's what it is. I'm just getting cranky. But, uh, I, I, I really
enjoy the telegram because I'm kind of just throwing out my ideas into the, you know, out
into the ether, um, like them or not right there, they're there to either fail or succeed.
I kept that going for a while. And then like two, three months ago, I talked about possibly
running a workshop. Um, the workshop
was going to be intended to be like four weeks long and it was only going to be, and you know,
I say this a lot. I hate going on spaces. A lot of the times I don't like going on podcasts
because it devolves into conversation and subject matter. I don't really care about.
Right. So I wanted to run the workshop around exactly how I trade. If you've ever,
you know, and this is applies a lot of people, people reach out to me in DMS, people message me
on telegram, ask me questions about my trading, you know, things that I can't attend to. I can't
answer hundreds of DMS. So if you've ever asked me about my trading and you're interested, like
I'm going to run a workshop and I'm going to tell you every single thing I've done,
everything that's made me a good trader, my system in and out,
not my system as far as like giving away a complete alpha, but discretionary traders is a lot of discretion to begin with. It's not like we're giving away the black box. Um, my process,
the software I use, a place where people can basically just over the shoulder, learn how I trade.
Um, so running that for the next eight weeks and ideally the market was going to be a really boring, it was going to be running into a really boring period. It just happens to be that things are a
lot more exciting now. Um, but that's it. It's, it's going to run. And at the end of it, we'll
have a nice workshop that's recorded, um, be filled with a ton of presentations. I do voice calls
every morning before the market opens. And we'll cut it up at the end and maybe it'll be like the
order flow and market profile courses on YouTube. Maybe I'll package it a la carte. I haven't really
decided yet. I just started it two days ago, but I actually, I got to tell you, I love it because
I'm dictating the flow of things.
It's a tight community.
There's not a ton of people in there, but I'm dictating the pace.
I'm dictating the direction.
I don't have to talk about the 15th iteration of shitcoin that I never have interest in anyway.
It's very much oriented around how I trade.
There's a lot of people that were always interested in that.
So it's, you know, people that are like-minded and kind of, I guess,
speak the same language to some degree, um,
or are interested in rather speaking the same language and that's it.
You know, it's the stable, it's fitting, it's, it's for the horse.
So it makes sense that it's a stable.
Um, are you going to put a price tag on it?
Because you've always kind of like oh yeah
it's i launched it already um i did filled spots like i did um limited spots already for the
uh the workshop group that has like the private sessions and and that's already closed out so
i might run it again um you know when it's over but we'll see i mean it's it's definitely a
different kind of
commitment but like i wrote like a little thing in the beginning as to why i was doing it like a
couple people stopped in like oh my god like why are you running a community you're running a
workshop it's like man you think way too black and white like you don't understand it i've shared
free stuff forever um yeah life changes right now having a kid has changed my life having another
one on the way has changed my life.
So I kind of like the idea of creating a community and doing something like this.
Cause it's a little bit less reactive to the market, a little bit less stressful, kind
of has a little bit more of a schedule to be honest.
Um, and I get to only do what I want to do at the end of the day, which is talk about
the market, how I like to talk about it, trade it, how I like to trade it and talk to other
people that are interested in hearing that as well so we'll see you know who knows how
long it'll last you know just from our experience in terms of having you know kind of done that
lab collection with nfts and and then the meal deal with the research is that first of all we
we get to dictate the kind of research that we want to do. So we inevitably land up doing the research that we are interested in.
And then that essentially, we hope, translates into a benefit
for those who are participating in that community.
And you'll see, this will happen with what it is that you're doing right now,
is that you'll reach a point where it actually becomes super rewarding,
that even if you aren't making a huge amount of money out of it, you'll keep doing it because it actually becomes super rewarding that even if you aren't making a huge amount of money
out of it you'll keep doing it because it actually felt i mean i know this sounds like quite silly
but it's like it fills your cup you know and you kind of feel hey i'm actually doing something that
interests me people are getting something out of it and that positive feedback loop just lands up
allowing you to create and to kind of like grow this thing so
um i hope that happens for you um i have a feeling that it will because you've always been
yeah because you've always been the kind of person that that that wants to do stuff i mean
i remember when you did that first course that you guys did um had a cool name what did you guys call
it um block roots block roots right yeah that was that was that was super cool and then you had a cool name. What did you guys call it? Blockroots.
Blockroots, right? Yeah.
That was super cool. And then you released that for free.
And I mean, for anyone who hasn't seen that and who's interested in order flow and order book trading
and the way that you trade, I don't know if those videos
are still out there, but I mean, that was mind-blowing stuff.
It was kind of like, well, we're getting to the granular level of trading and you gave that for free even though
that was worth thousands of dollars you know at the time so let's see how this plays out for you
so good luck with that um just uh next question i wanted to ask you is where do you think we are
in terms of this whole idea for your cycles i know that you've spoken about it before
but i wanted to kind of get your thoughts obviously on the part and for other people to hear it
i mean if you look at a high time frame chart there is a good amount of rhyming that's taking place
but i i think needless to say like to stay consistent with my earlier point i think btc is
stay consistent with my earlier point. I think BTC is largely going to track equity indices more
and trade more like a tech stock. I think it has over the last year or so. There's definitely
periods where it has underperformed. There's periods where it has overperformed to the upside.
Like if you go back to the end of 2023, when the ETF was like, we're right on the cusp of the etf that was going to launch in
the beginning of the year that followed like the s&p was trending down and and bitcoin was ripping
for i think it was like september and october um but i i don't believe in like the this perfect
four-year cycle anymore i think it's very unlikely um now that we have way more TradFi involvement, it's probably just going to follow
broader cycles that definitely do exist in traditional markets. But it's not like, oh,
you know, it's a four-year cycle each time. It varies from cycle to cycle, right? So there's
these longer secular cycles. There are smaller cycles within that. And I think it's much more likely that BTC follows those rather than like this halving cycle that it's tended to follow in the past.
I think a lot of that was kind of self-reinforced.
And because there was a lot of the same retail dominated flow in this market, I think it's probably less likely moving forward.
I think you're seeing a major change this cycle just from Bitcoin sort of bifurcating from the rest of the
market. And I think it's a good thing, honestly, that there's no... If I'm right, that the four-year
cycle is kind of done because if the four-year cycle is not done and let's say Bitcoin is towards
what it should be at the end of its four-year cycle,
and the S&P is starting to trend up and entering a bull market again, who doesn't want to be tied
to global markets? So I don't think that's likely. I think BTC still trades like risk.
I think it's more tied now than it ever has been. So as long as the S&P finds its footing,
So as long as the S&P finds its footing, I doubt you're going to see BTC deviate much more than that, where you have this pullback of 2019 or 2022, where a lot of things broke in this market that sent the market much lower.
I think you're already seeing that the market is definitely different in terms of the depths of the pullback so far from the ETF.
Like it's been less rewarding for people that have been waiting for the much deeper dips that we've had historically, the much sharper liquidation cascades that we've had.
It's a way more controlled.
We're getting way more controlled pullbacks.
And I think part of that is due to the ETF. Even though the ETF flows a large majority of that
composition is funds that are probably delta neutral, there still is the other portion of
that that are actually buying BTC, having directional exposure to it, that believe in it.
And I think that'll pick up over time and have a more pronounced
effect over long timeframes. All of my like bearishness is pretty relegated to the next
few months. Um, I personally don't think that, you know, they could afford to keep doing this.
Like I know what they say, like they're doing it for main street. They're not like at some point,
their friends are going to be banging on their doors saying, yo, like you're fucking up my portfolio, you know,
especially as you get closer to midterms. I know that's like a really long time frame in
crypto Twitter's mind. But like if this can persisted for six months or a year, I don't know,
I could use the time off, honestly, like I could use that time because I think we're still just looking at the same thing overall large time horizons, where this is going to present the next generation with the buying opportunity of a lifetime.
were around at the bottom of the global financial crisis, if you were around at the bottom of COVID,
like to be completely transparent, COVID changed my life massively. Like I was doing really well
to that point. And because I was positioned in such a way, I was able to floor it,
not at the lows of COVID, but when it became clear that everyone was getting free
money, I was like, Nope, this is the kind of environment you get behind.
And that was a once in a lifetime thing.
But as people will tell you in markets, once in a lifetime events in markets happen actually
quite often.
So, um, as silly as that sentence sounds, I think you have to keep a positive outlook
on markets.
It doesn't even have to remember global markets are accessible now.
Like BTC is accessible by every, by everybody.
I still think that when we do take the turn, maybe that's six months,
maybe that's a year from now that it is going to be the,
definitely in the next environment that we're going into or the horse that you
want to be on.
Yeah, I totally agree with you on that.
And also COVID definitely changed things
for me. I wouldn't be doing what I'm doing right now if it hadn't been for COVID. Yeah, it was
awesome. It was the best thing that could have happened, even though the situation was really
shitty. And you're 100% right. I think a lot of people think that they only get one chance at making it
in a way that changes their lives, and making it isn't just about the money.
It's just about putting yourself out there and looking for the opportunities, and if you work
hard enough, they'll come. That's just the law of the way that life is. So if you are looking for that break, just keep grinding, guys.
It's going to come.
And you're 100% right.
So just kind of like, obviously,
you've got different priorities now in your life.
And you've got a second little one on the way.
And like you said, this has been the game changer for you.
How does this now, even though you've given us some clues, how does this now even though you've given us some clues how does this now
kind of like determine the way that you approach the markets is it kind of like well i reserve
five hours or six hours a day um when i get a chance or is it kind of like you just go with
the flow um around what's happening in the house i mean mean, I am like, I have the benefit of like my wife is at
home all the time. I definitely like, I want to say that my life has changed a lot, but I'm still,
I'm back in the office and looking at markets, like after I've had a little bit of morning
peacetime around 5.30, six o'clock in the morning. And then I'm still focused on markets like
throughout the day. Like the benefit of where I am now is that when I want to take a break, I can, I don't feel like I'm
missing out. Um, I'm at a position now where I don't feel like I have to trade. And I, you know,
this new community is great. People are like, Oh, why are you charging for it? It's like,
you don't understand. Like my dog groomer gets $200 an hour. I'm not going to provide some kind
of, you know, quality service for free because if
anything, that literally allows everybody in the door and paying the benefit of having
someone pay to be part of a workshop is that if they act like an asshole, they paid to
do it, you know?
Correct.
Yeah.
Yeah.
But, but when it comes to trading, like I, I don't feel like I'm going to miss out ever.
Right.
I've never felt like that.
I've never felt this sense of urgency.
So I'm in and out of the office like all day.
My office is, you know, it's in my house.
It's not like it requires much.
A little bit more structured now, you know, because of the little one.
Like I don't really miss a bedtime ever.
We, you know, since my daughter was born, Rita booked her every single night.
I don't even go to jujitsu during those hours.
That's the freedom that, you know, this, my career has allowed me though, like to get
to this point, I can make that choice.
You know, I, I, I am very focused on the market still though.
I don't want to say like, you know, I've taken a lot of time off and i'm only breaking down the market into a couple hours a day like i'm still obsessed at the
end of the day like i'm still obsessed um i it's a game that i think is the best game but uh yeah
you know we'll see when number two comes around how i feel about that because she comes right
well they come around in October. So I think the end result is that, yeah, you're going to be surprised again.
Take it from a father of two who's done this before.
Like, you know how you didn't know what was going to happen with the first one?
Well, the same thing with the second one happens.
The cool thing is that you're a lot more relaxed about it.
And then that part of it is easier, but it's still hard.
And yeah, you're still going to have to fasten that seatbelt, my brother.
It's coming.
So enjoy it.
Yeah.
That's all I have to say.
I'm looking forward to, and I think probably every parent feels like this.
The second one around, I hear stories where it's like, yeah, we weren't as worried
with like the small shit.
You know, I remember when my daughter was little, I would like fucking barely sleep
through the night even when I could, because I'd be like, all right, is she breathing?
Is she breathing?
Is she breathing?
I had like every monitor you could have hooked up to her so that I could see her heartbeat.
Like you could ask my wife.
I'm fucking nuts when it comes to that. But I'll probably with the second i'll be like yeah you know first one was good second one's probably fine no it will be you'll see even
even with your kind of like you know the cautious approach you'll see it will be a lot easier from
that perspective and then you'll meet people who have had three and then I'll try and convince you to
have a third one, but don't let them because I think three is just complete mental craziness.
Anyways, so just in terms of like charts look very well, charts are rhyming. Do you think that
the cycle is from that perspective, if we look at kind of like the the four-year horizon and and the rest
of it do you think that we have reached kind of like a bear market going into like ethan and i
wanted to quickly ask you because we are at top of the hour now but before we we can finish it off
with kind of a perspective around alts because in many ways alts have kind of like displayed more of
a crypto cycle,
in my opinion.
And I don't know if you agree with me because we both agree that it's been very much a tradfire, a tradfire influence,
the ETF cycle, Bitcoin's doing its thing.
But then alts have done their thing, but it's been very selective.
And now we're seeing like all-time lows and it really doesn't look great.
And ETH, quite frankly, has looked really doesn't look great. And ETH quite frankly has looked really
bad the whole cycle. So just kind of closing it out on that thought, what do you, what do you
think is going on there? Do you think it's kind of like over for the long-term for alts as kind
of alts or is it just like, unfortunately the ETF and we'll see something later on?
What are your thoughts around? No, I don't think so. So I don't think you're ever going to eliminate that need in people to get
exposure to something that's way more violent. And I think people have been, it's been sort of
ingrained in people that alts or at least in this market, excuse me, that alts are offer extreme
convex return profiles relative to BTC. You're not going to hear about anyone
putting a small amount of money in BTC anymore and making millions. It's just the case. It's
clearly at a certain point. Whereas Alts, you get those survivorship stories that are posted on the
timeline of someone buying a little bit of some shit coin that's dust, and then it turns to
millions of dollars. That will always be burnt in the front of people's minds.
So they'll always seek that.
I think there's something to be said, though,
for the fact that we haven't had a lot of new participants in this market.
So you have to understand that the people that are going into the next,
let's say, good period that ends up coming
are going to have seen everything that's happened before.
So I think it's unlikely that you're going to convince them
that the shit that retraced completely
is suddenly now, this time around, a promising project.
Unless something really changes under the hood,
beyond just being like a momentum trade.
But I think you're going to run into supply
in anything that's come off the highs tremendously
and has what's called a broken chart.
Where you open the chart and you see the performance of last cycle. If you put it on off a log scale, it looks like the Burj Khalifa
and you know, you've been sitting at zero for months. Um, I think that more likely is that
the behavior sort of, that's just why behavioral psychology is so important and behavior and
markets so important is because if you look at a chart and it's new, you have this, it's a new listing or it's a new project.
You have this idea that, and you could be completely unaware of all the original investors
that are already sitting up multiples that want to sell the shit out of it. We have this idea that
it's fresh and that it has so much potential. I think at any turn this market has, where we're starting to
look at higher prices again, and BTC is looking supported and we're beginning to trend, people
are going to look for anything that's relatively new or that recently launched. And that's Hypecoin,
for example, Hyperliquid, and has a promising story, has a promising narrative, doesn't
necessarily have a extremely broken chart because it might be down, but it hasn promising story, has a promising narrative, doesn't necessarily have a extremely
broken chart because it might be down, but it hasn't been listed for a long time.
And then you can never write out in this market.
This is why alts will always, there will be some alts that always do well.
It takes nothing to come to market in this market.
There's no like regulatory process.
There's no IPO process.
It's literally, if someone has an idea and a team gets together, they can launch an altcoin.
With the right connections, it could be trading in a matter of hours.
So never write off the fact that things will do really well, but they just don't exist yet.
And every cycle is kind of that story, right?
It's like a darling of a cycle does really well.
That behavior is reinforced the next cycle.
It does somewhat well.
Then it dies off though,
because it's running into previous supply.
A new asset comes out.
That's really shiny and popular.
And that persists.
So the idea is like,
don't get stuck in the old shit.
Like there are people that are holding EOS and Cardano and,
you know,
you name it.
Like I remember buying,
what was it? Dragon coin in 2016 or 17. Dragon Chain,
maybe it was 2018. I don't know. But I bought it because it was supposed to partner with Disney.
And it was such a... My wife loved Disney. I was buying this thing as if it was an investment.
If you see that and it's up on a day, that's something you just never need to look at again. It's been around for so long. It's garbage, right? So you have to be aware of what's new.
The market's looking for something new that doesn't have a whole lot of positioning in it
already. And you have to obviously be aware of the things that are jumping off the low the hardest
whenever Bitcoin is doing well. So Farcoin is an example right now. I hate to even say the word. It's just so stupid.
ETH, I think the market is telling you a lot. ETH is, even when people like Kobe are talking
bad about ETH to some degree, it's a pretty bad sign. ETH looks disgusting. The chart looks gross.
The ETF has zero institutional interest. I don't remember the last time it had a green day.
There's just not a whole lot there.
I said it for months that with ETH having an ETF, it didn't mean anything because traditional
market participants are used to studying balance sheets with a scalpel and a microscope.
The idea that ETH has like fundamental value in this market,
it might be one thing compared to how people determine that outside of this market.
And they're going to be way stricter with how they ascertain that. And I think it's clear that
it's reflected in the chart that there's not a lot of people out there that think that it has
a very significant fundamental value to it because the chart is just, you know, it looks terrible.
because the chart is just, you know, it looks terrible.
Yeah.
200, Bill, you asked the question,
is it about sound money or is it just about a momentum trade
that lasted several years that's now coming to an end?
It'll be interesting to see if it does find favor again
and what that might look like.
You know, does it ever do that again?
It possibly does um but at the moment i don't really feel i don't feel like it's something that i want to hold and
i don't and i think the general consensus is that it's not worth it um there's better trades and
there's better value and i probably have like maybe maybe like twenty thousand dollars in
eath spread across like a hundred wallets as dust just to leave on them to send you know usdc or
whatever gets there but now i don't i don't have any eath exposure cool um yeah ryan thanks so much
for joining it's been really cool to chat to you, and it's been a long time coming, like we said at the beginning,
and Yath, appreciate your thoughts.
I think there was quite a lot of stuff to think about,
and hopefully people picked up on that.
Definitely, like, you know, perspective around what's been playing out
that maybe hasn't been obvious to people around BTC being very much a trade fire trade now.
And I think what's happened today is a very good example of that
and everything's reacted off Bitcoin.
So let's see how the rest of the year plays out.
Good luck with your little one coming.
And yeah, we'll see you out on twitter and look forward to
how your new project plays out good luck with that um and once again thanks dude appreciate
your time appreciate you always enjoy your likewise commentary and your banter dude like
you're a gem in the space and you all love what you put out there. Thanks, brother. Cheers, everyone. Thanks for joining. Please,
please like and subscribe. If you haven't, do it. We love you more if you do that. And yeah,
we'll see you guys next time. Take it easy. Stay safe. Don't put it all in one go, guys.
Play it safe, please. Take it easy.
