Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
How to Retire with Crypto‼️PT.2
Recorded: July 1, 2025 Duration: 0:43:51Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion among crypto enthusiasts, participants shared personal success stories and strategies for navigating the volatile market, emphasizing the importance of securing profits, understanding liquidity, and adapting to emerging trends in meme tokens and altcoins.
Full Transcription
Music Thank you. okay guys welcome back uh i guess we got to put the new spaces link out there
spaces link out there.
um i blame poppin's dogs i don't know why i just do
I blame Pop and Stonks. I don't know why.
I just do.
Hey, listen. You know what?
You know what it is? I rugged you because
I thought I was your only friend, Funk.
And here you go bringing all these guys
up here.
Yeah, well, you were my only friend. But then
through your friendship, I built
the self-esteem to make all these great friends
that we have up here on stage.
I'm glad I could help.
Alright, we will start in probably just like a minute.
I'll just jump right into it.
The audience will fill or it won't, right?
So hopefully everyone joins back in.
I do want to get the co-host spot if you wouldn't mind, Tina.
Working on it.
I don't know. Last time
he rugged us, so
probably not a great idea.
Come on, man.
I thought we were friends.
I've sent it to all the group messages.
Hopefully people find it now,
but let's go.
Let's fucking go. Yeah, I posted
it everywhere.
Yeah, I was going...
I posted it in private groups
that I haven't spoken in in like two years.
MVP.
Yeah, I do want to speak...
You know, I'll just jump right into the conversation
and as people join in, they join in.
But like, just to pick up where we left off there was i came into the space with 200 right and i bought a token named shiba
you know and you know cal to your point like you know i was low income and that move turned out to
be pretty good um it wasn't as good as shib toshi's strat like investment in it. And I sold long before he did.
But I turned that into $3,400.
You know, and from there, I made a 20K win in the bull market, 20, 30K win.
I put it almost all towards my mortgage, which probably is not a good financial decision either.
Just based on how low my interest rate is.
But, you know, and then from there, like I jumped into communities.
I built a career a little bit here
so to your point
but when I tried to go full time here
the income became too
variable to your point and when it becomes too
variable
you can't rest your entire
like family's financial
future on
you know the market going
vertical right to your, and you need that
steady income in addition. Papa Stonks, what's up? Yeah, I just want to say, you know, if you've
only got a couple hundred dollars, you know, we've seen some big wins from people, especially
on something like Shiba, but that is not definitely, that is not the way to start off your uh your crypto journey um
if you plan on staying in the space for very long uh you guys got lucky you did um and and i'm very
happy for that you know i know lady ninja she she made six figures and changed her life from that
um and you know ship toshi yourself i know lots of people that have had great success stories as
their first time you know in a meme token but in general it is not a wise decision to take your 200
bucks and put it into a meme token um you know if you're gonna do that you might as well just
trade futures at 100x uh and and hope you get lucky, to be honest. To your point as well, it's like, okay,
well, maybe you don't have that much to lose. You know what I'm saying? But that's not the,
the numbers say that that story is not common, right? The numbers say that, you know,
The numbers say that, you know, 9% of people in this space lose, right?
It is, you know, we're not going to get into how, like, liquidity works, but yeah, it's not common, right?
Well, I mean, I think we could, you know, I think we could get into how liquidity works because not enough people know about it.
And I do feel the need to educate people on it from time to time.
How liquidity pools work and the true value of the Ethereum in the pool
is usually not even a tenth of what the market cap is.
So, you know, in cryptocurrency especially, although it can exist in stocks too,
bubbles do get created and, you know, people that sell at the top.
And does that inform your trading strategy?
Are you quick in and quick out of high-risk plays?
Are you looking to get out with that 5X?
Or what is your kind of strategy with the low-cap plays?
Because I'll be honest, I think the advice that applies to someone with a $10,000 or
$100,000 or a million-dollar portfolio may not be the same strategy that applies to someone
that just wanted to play with some crypto money
and got it with $100, $200.
And hey, maybe leverage trading is more advanced
than just buying a bag of your favorite DeFi token
and holding for the moon, right?
And so my point there that I wanted to make was...
I kind of lost it, but i'll go over to you papa stocks
hey you were talking about liquidity oh right we were talking about yeah yeah um
i don't yeah i just want to say yeah so the the average liquidity on an ethereum meme token the
actual eth and it is usually around five percent so five percent of the market cap is usually what the liquidity is, the true liquidity.
But, you know, as far as, you know, trading, if you're going to do it with meme tokens,
and I say this because the market today is a lot different than when you invested in a Shiba In.
All right, there were way less meme tokens out there.
And now there's a million a day.
The liquidity is thinned out
across all these tokens so you know it's a huge pvp space right now and you're going to have way
way way less of a percentage of actually making it in a token with your 200 bucks but what you
can do is you can you know just take two x's two x two x two x two x and build your build your
account up build your portfolio up with two x's you know you can do that with a bot on pump pun
all day long all day long just one soul boom flip it flip it flip it flip it at the end of the day
you know you got you know 50 so you know some of them are going to are going to rug on you.
Obviously, most 99 percent of them will.
But you're just taking two X's, two X and out and move to the next.
That's it.
And that's, you know, I personally don't have time to do that.
But, you know, that is one way that somebody could do it a little bit safer to flip those.
Well, we were also talking about earlier, too, is keeping at least 20% of your portfolio in altcoins.
And one of the main things that I kind of learned when I was networking last year was these guys that have made these large amounts of money,
they really watch these altcoins closely and they pay close attention
to media what's happening around the globe and they're not afraid to stable those coins up either
which was a huge common denominator some of these guys will have a thousand sol and they'll see some
world news or 10 000 sol 50 000 sol whatever they'll see the uh the news come in oh there could
be possible war between these two countries and they instantly stable those tokens up they anticipate
that dip on the altcoin and then they'll and they'll buy back and sometimes they're getting
twice as much as they had in the beginning so really paying it like i know it was like the
political and the just the global news side of, it shouldn't factor as much into crypto as as it does.
But at the end of the day, it really does manipulate these altcoins a lot.
And, you know, people are always selling the news.
So if you can stay on top of those sort of platforms on X, X is usually the best place for it.
platforms on X, X is usually the best place for it. And man, I see some of these guys double and
triple their portfolios just from not being scared to stable up and time their entries back in.
And that's something that I've been trying to incorporate into my long term crypto is when you
see signs that the market's about to nuke, stable up your tokens. And it's just as important to not take a loss as it is to make the win.
You know what I mean?
And a lot of times that comes around full circle.
Yeah, a lot of good points there.
Two that stood out to me was one, Papastonks, you mentioned, we're not in an alt market
like we were in 2021 in terms of things just, first of all all the number of tokens is absurd compared to what it
was back then and the number of ones that go parabolic that it makes it that much more difficult
to find that pepe you know that fart coin or whatever whatever the token is that's mooning
of the day right uh you know the shiba inu was the one back in the day but obviously doge and
everything like that so and then the other point uh, to your thing, and one thing I wish I had done
the last three years is pick an altcoin in the top 100 and sell it at 20% up. When it's 20% up,
sell it. And when it's 20% down, buy it back again and just keep doing that over and over
and over and over again as your strategy, because those usually have the
liquidity to make it so it's not a huge price impact. And they usually have enough adoption
that they're not just going to disappear, you know, from your like, whatever the hundred extra
dollars you're scalping or a thousand extra dollars you're scalping on each of those trades.
But go ahead, Goose. Well, no, I mean, here's the thing. you're right about exactly what you're saying living but living like
that you only get to like last it so long that's the thing so you have to like time your exits
know how long that you can trade for in that region as well so it's a bit of a timing thing
but i wanted to get back because i missed the beginning and i'm sorry about that but
i had a time with crypto right how how have i? I like to say that. I'll tell you my
strategy. I live and die by the percentages. And then the most important words of all is I pay
myself. So whatever I make on a profit or a play, I definitely put into stables and I lock it up and
I put it in there. The only way to truly retire off anything is where you either have so much of
it, it doesn't matter. If you own 10,000 Bitcoin, then you're good at, you're just as good as a hundred thousand or you pretty much
are at 60,000 because I believe that the asset for the long-term will just increase in value
over time. So you can survive the dips and the downs and you can borrow money. You can do all
these things when you're having a silly amount of money, but to build up your wealth where you can
technically live off, let's get to the basics of it. Basically, even high yield savings accounts, crypto accounts and USD go from anywhere from ranging of six to as high as 12% and everything in between. So that just let's go for low and 6%. You want to live off of that, you're going to need over a million dollars. So you got to accumulate that million dollars through crypto. You need to have your bank of what you're using to make your funds, and you need to have the discipline to pay yourself as well.
A lot of people don't have that discipline.
What makes a successful gambler that can do it for his life and just a person who just loses is the ability to take his bank and to bank it away and realize I need to make $120,000 a year.
And whether I make more or less, that's what I do, and I have this much money.
That discipline does not show up overnight. Whether you're doing it with $20 or $200 or $200,000, you should live and die by the percentages of what your goals are.
Sometimes you're going to get extremely lucky and sometimes you're going to get
extremely unlucky. But if you realize the market usually moves pretty in tandem and it has an ebb
and flow. I'm not telling you how to trade yet in between there, but what I am telling you is you've got to stick to your percentages. All these things of safeties
and dealing with futures or not futures or 5x leverage gets into the advanced things. But if
you're just learning the one-on-one, guys, you want to truly retire off crypto, off the ability
to consistently make money off crypto, where you put your Solana, your Ethereum, your whatever it
is in something that earns you, you're gonna have to live and die the percentage.
You're gonna actually have to have money
that you can't lose to spend, you understand,
for your lifestyle, and you're gonna have to have money
that you put away that consistently just saving.
And unless somebody's dying of cancer,
you can't access that money.
If you don't have the discipline to live and die
by your percentages,
you're not gonna make it in any financial gain.
That's how I have been successful in this industry.
Discipline, the discipline I didn't have and knew i now have
that's uh basically you know that's ship toshi's uh you know strategy as well he he does the 50 50
rule so 50 of his profits gets off ramped just straight out of crypto you know it and it goes through collateralized
loans but uh the other 50 is stable to reinvest it's smart you know make sure like you said pay
your gut pay yourselves always always i haven't on ramped a damn thing since 2017 i live off of
crypto alone um basically you know i do have other portfolios but i don't touch them i live off of crypto alone. Basically, you know, I do have other portfolios, but I don't touch them.
I live off of my crypto.
And, you know, so it is very important to, you know, to off ramp as well.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Again, that takes discipline.
Because you make your first 10 and you want to turn into 100.
My bad.
I cut somebody off there.
No, no, it's all good, man.
I think one thing that it's so funny, it's all good, man. I think one thing that...
It's so funny.
It's like everyone has this feeling of these
when it comes to altcoins and low-cap coins
that they zig when they should have zagged
and they zag when they should have zigged.
And an example I'll give you of that is
when I came into this space,
I came in during the peak of a bull market
where the winning strategy in generally
was let the bulls run. You generally was let the bulls run,
you know, let the bulls run and hold everything in 2021. If everyone went back and said, you know,
I wish I could have just bought everything and just held. And then, you know, I came in with a
bearish attitude, a risk averse attitude. Like Cal said, I didn't have 200 bucks to lose when I came
in necessarily at the time. So I came in with such a bearish
attitude and I took my Shiba Inu out at 3,400 instead of, you know, 3.4 million, like I could
have if I had just held on until the all time highs and things like that. But, but at the end
of the day, I almost wish I had kept that bearish mentality because it really hurts people, man. I
can, I know there's so many listeners in the space
that when a token that they held a large percentage of runs without them, it's almost
like that hurts them more than any possible crypto loss could in some capacity.
Absolutely. Most people's gains are made over holding over long periods of time. That's been
the most successful average that people have really made their money.
If they hold an asset and that asset grows
over weeks, months, years, and becomes,
grows in such wealth value that it's accumulated
so much of the percentage of your portfolio.
You know, and this may sound crazy,
but my strategy, and then I'll go over to Papa Stonks,
has been to try to buy when it's low
and then sell when it's high.
I know it sounds strange, but go ahead to Papa Stonks has been to try to buy when it's low and then sell when it's high. I know it sounds strange, but go ahead, Papa Stonks.
That is wild, bro.
I have not heard that in this space ever, or at least not seen it practiced correctly.
So kudos to you.
You know, I do want to say, you know, kind of your strategy with the major alts.
So 20 up, 20 down.
You can use a grid trading bot for that.
That'll do it on its own.
So you guys don't really have to watch it all the time.
Obviously, it can go out of your range.
But as long as you have that grid trading bot set up correctly, it'll do it for you.
And, you know, and again, you can earn,
earn income off of that,
you know,
just take some profits and pull slowly.
I forget what the hell I was going to say really now.
What were we talking about?
Strategies.
That's it,
man.
You were talking about your boss strategies.
Oh yeah.
Yeah.
I mean,
so as far as, you know, investing to you know into meme tokens and it creates
a fomo so funk you know when you pulled out at 3400 yeah you pulled out some great profits
to be honest um it could have been 3.4 mil and that that might've fucked up your, your way of thinking. It ruined your
bearish attitude because it gave you FOMO on everything else thinking it's going to go,
you know, a million X and you're going to hold and you're going to, you wind up round tripping
a ton of bags. Um, so always have a strategy going in to secure at minimum your initials and some profits, you know, at say a five or 10 X and be happy with that.
You still have your moon bag.
And if it comes down, maybe you can throw some profits back in, but always secure your initials and never put them back in.
Period.
I don't care what project it is well kind of on my journey
too i got i got lucky as well i knew nothing about crypto i knew nothing about stocks i knew nothing
about trading and i had a guy at the gym hounding me to buy bitcoin every single day and i thought
this guy was a loser so i didn't listen to him and finally one day i listened to him and i bought
bitcoin in 2013 i bought a hundred of them and it cost me about $8,000.
I just got a juicy tax return and I'm like, fuck it, I'm taking a chance.
And, you know, that turned into about $80,000 for me over a pretty short term, less than a year.
And I ended up pulling 70,000 out to fix up my house.
And I took the 10,000 and I slapped it in Doge at a penny.
And then Doge 20X for me.
And it turned into about 200 grand.
And I left all of that in crypto.
And I did that over the course of about two years.
Those are my first two trades.
And I haven't had to onboard any money into crypto since then.
I've been full-time crypto for about four or five years now.
Congratulations, man.
But that comes down to luck and there was no trading strategy.
If I didn't know any better and I just bought that 100 Bitcoin and held it till today, I wouldn't be sitting on the space right now.
Because I'd have $15 million in the bank and I'd just be fucking, you know what I mean, sitting on a beach somewhere sipping a margarita.
but uh hey man when you get a chance to change your life change your life you know yeah i really
Hey, man, when you get a chance to change your life, change your life, you know?
just think though that that type of thinking is creates that fallacy that we're talking about it
creates that if i had just held that then i would be here so i will just hold the next one and then
i'll be there and that's not always a sequitur man, we haven't seen long-term holding pay off on anything but Bitcoin.
And maybe like, like in the past few years.
Yeah, Opium is a drug. Opium is a drug and FOMO is a drug.
Yeah, XRP was a good one too. Sorry, I can't forget that one. Like I said, it's like so small,
it's like a handful of tokens, it's the the couple alt coins that
that went to the moon truly and then it's like you know and those are like less than 10 of those
it's like the trump token pepe uh you know uh brett like popcat like that you can name what you
can name them right and uh and then it's bitcoin and like xrp and yeah maybe there's a couple
others maybe suey did well or i don't know what, what did or didn't, but overall,
like it hasn't been a good market for that strategy for the past four,
four years since 2020 and a 2021, 2022.
Yeah. You used to be able to throw money at literally anything,
even the rugs and you could make money before they rugged back in 2020 and 2021.
It didn't matter.
They actually let them run higher back then.
Now they're rugged at 50K and 100K.
So it's a very rough space compared to what we were used to, what we started off in.
And people coming into this space, they need to learn that because they've heard stories from their friends that were in the last cycle like oh yeah i made so much
money on this and this and this and and they're like okay well hey i can do that too and they
come in and they get rugged and rugged and rugged and rugged uh or that you know i've seen people
lose you know 30k at a time just on freaking sandwich bots.
You know, Jared just completely wrecked them.
You know, they're putting in the chart.
They don't know what they're doing.
They set the wrong slippage and boom, they're screwed.
You know, they put 10K, put a 10K buy in and wind up with $20 in tokens.
I mean, those are absolutely heartbreaking moments for people. And I think to my point about, you know, the guy that comes in and, you know, maybe Cal,
it's not all the money he has, but maybe he just wants to throw in a hundred or $200 in gambling
money. Like I said, I think the strategy there is the less money you have, try to go for like a two
or three X, you know, if you can get that to 600, you know, as you start to kind of like, anytime you can just get that W act bearish at first,
you know what I mean? Act bearish and get to build your portfolio up. And then it gives you more
leeway to kind of, uh, to play with those. Of course, everything said on here was not financial
advice. Papa stocks, go ahead. So, you know, no, I mean, I completely agree. When you have a small account, you make small
trades. Okay. It's all relative to the size of your accounts. You make small trades, you pull
small profits, but you do it repeatedly. Okay. You do it repeatedly. You keep that discipline.
You will build it up. And then you can make those gamble trades where, you know, you're going to buy
a bag and hold it because you think it's going to moon.
But you'll never miss that money if it's gone.
You know what I mean?
So make sure if you're starting small, start small.
If you have a lot of money to gamble with, then, yeah, do whatever the hell you want to do.
You know, I need exit liquidity.
There's also
something to be said i'm at i'll hear from you in a second i'm taking a risk i'm pulling you up
here because i don't know you but uh i do want to say there is something to be said about
safety in numbers when it comes to cryptocurrency and the example i'll give you is if you go and
look at bitcoin and you want to buy bitcoin there there is safety in numbers there. Yeah, it could drop 80% value if like some massive crash happens, but
probably not. And it definitely won't go to zero, right? That's pretty much a guarantee with Bitcoin
that it's not going to go to zero. But if you find some tiny cap and, you know, it's a small
community, people aren't talking about it. i don't know i feel like that's
a higher risk play and more likely to go to zero so like especially when you're first starting out
now don't get me wrong if you've been in the space a long time and you have a big portfolio
and you've learned to create a portfolio that you know is 30% stable coins, 40% like Bitcoin and the major alts.
And then, you know, you get smaller and smaller numbers that are used for leverage trading
as well as small caps, you know, then, yeah, you can play with those ones as well.
Frankie, what's your point?
I didn't have anything related to this necessarily.
I was going to give you guys, I don't know if you guys already broke down some of the
economic data that came out today and why I think it may be part of why the market's
selling off right now.
But if you guys already covered that, then.
No, but you know what?
It's a good segue and it's a good example is to follow the macro markets.
A good segue, and it's a good example, is to follow the macro markets.
Like I think it was Bucks was saying that basically when you see the global spirit becoming bearish and becoming negative, don't be afraid to stable up.
And if you see if your instinct is that it's getting bullish, then whatever.
Don't be afraid to unstable as well.
But yeah, it's a good segue to talk about the overall market sentiment.
Well, real quick,
before we change subjects,
I do kind of want to hear what Ahmed wanted to say
before we move on
and then we can hop into the macros.
All right, go ahead, Ahmed.
Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for your hospitality uh the whole concept is that uh
what they call it it's good to see good spaces with the brains you know because most of the spaces now is just like people with with a lot of red balls and screaming for this new meme coin
so it's good to have this good the
whole concept is that i've been introduced to crypto like since november last year and you know what
it's magnificent for me because i tripled my investment in binance main exchange but then
i've been somebody told me about the devil phantom and then my my my struggle with meme coins started
yes i rugged a lot by a lot of triangle brain people because seriously sometimes the ticker
was really good and people like it but still he have this mentality i need to rugged before
it's reached like 100 or 150 market cap so yes this is this is this is a lot and the problem is that this will continue
and you know what they will write more people because there is like if you know that's like
the whole world is like maybe six point eight or nine in crypto so there's a lot of big waves will
come to the crypto market and these let's say hyenas waiting for them so i believe we need a way to look like for
example is that to give them a score on on anyhow that we that we tell people that if if if these
people talk about any meme coin be careful because their score is very low there is high probability
they will argue or something it
will be great really because even though if you know that this new GTA game they may implement
a token for selling skins and and and firearms and these things that mean a lot maybe 100 million or
even more will be introduced to crypto and and for sure they want
to explore other options there so they need to be protected and somehow because most of them will be
kids or and teenagers so that they don't know what that what they will face look i lost a lot
in meme coins and especially the form i followed i was greedy maybe. I followed even the Melania thing and everything.
I lost a lot in them.
But thank God I found a project.
And you know what?
I had my...
I stick to it.
I reimbursed, let's say, most of my losses.
Thank God for that.
But maybe a lot of other people couldn't have this opportunity.
So the whole concept is how to find an investment can pay you something and you can maintain and make your main investment portfolio safe.
So this is the question in crypto, if I may say.
Because the problem is that the whole crypto concept is that you buy something and you hope it will and pump that it will pump a little bit so you can make money.
But we need to change this mentality.
We need to find a way that people can make money without losing their positions in a project they like.
And let's say, in general, make crypto a more safe place to invest.
Awesome. Thanks a lot man that was yeah man great yeah and you know what they say the fastest way to become a millionaire in crypto is to be start off as a billionaire so you know if you're gonna
be gambling in the salon of trenches um you're most likely going to lose money and not make it.
So yeah. Awesome. So yeah, man, that's a good point. And that's really funny about how you
were more successful on the CEX. And then once you got into the black tar heroin of trading,
which is, I guess, leverage trading, but just DeFi and Phantom Wallet and Solana in particular. One thing that's hard with Solana for me is the ability to fake
that safety in numbers feature that I was talking about earlier. You could really fake that on
Solana. You can make it seem like you've got a gigantic community. You got AI, you got bots in
there speaking, you got volume that makes it look like this is the hottest, next hottest token. And really, it is not. It is a calculated, coordinated system that's set to make you
FOMO in and lose money. Frankie, I do want to get to you for the market analysis. And hey,
why are things turning a little bit red? Yeah. So I think today's a little bit of the volatility that we're seeing today is for a couple reasons.
I'll pin up a couple of things that I think are relevant here.
Yeah, it should be good. So we had two big pieces of data come out today.
We're going to have more come out throughout the week. We're getting a lot of labor market data throughout the week. We still have non-farm payrolls and we still have the unemployment
rate to come this week. But what we did have today was jolts and the ISM manufacturing.
And so the ISM manufacturing essentially measures the business cycle, the expansion and contraction
of economies. This is one of the key reasons why I think alts are dragging their feet and not performing.
If you look at the second and third chart, you can see the connection between the ISM and altcoins.
You can see the connection between ISM and ETH BTC.
Yes, I know the second chart is slightly outdated.
If you want to buy me a Real Vision subscription, that is appreciated.
But yeah, but I mean, essentially you can see the connection there.
And remember that liquidity is a function of the business cycle.
The business cycle is the earning cycle, is the job cycles.
It means people have more work, more business, people are getting more loans, investors have
more confidence, people are investing more, speculating more.
You don't see that really in waves until we start to get to the high 50s, mid 60s on the
ISM. Below 50 on the ISM means we're contracting. Above 50 means we're expanding as an economy.
We are still below 50. And if you look at the third chart, what this is good at showing you
is look at where we were in midway through 2021. We were peaked out
on the ISM. We were at 65. We were the highest that it's been in the last five years while all
coins were ripping. And look at where we are right now. Forget about the Bitcoin cycle. Forget about
the presidential cycle. Those things are good, yes, but they're not the fundamental thing that drives asset prices and risk assets.
What drives those is debt refinancing, and that coincides with really just a general expanding
and growth in global markets and global economies and easing of financial conditions. We haven't
seen the easing of financial conditions yet. We haven't seen the growth in the economies yet because interest rates are still very high.
There's still uncertainty with the China tariffs. We're still below 50 on the ISM. We're still in
quantitative tightening, guys. Still in quantitative tightening. So I understand the concern, the
confusion, the malaise that we all feel with this cycle. It feels different
because it is. Things are taking longer than they usually do. But there's reasons for that.
And the things fundamentally that drive markets haven't occurred yet. So that's just a quick
breakdown on that. And that's how it relates to the manufacturing data we saw today. Then we also
Then we also saw the jolts market. And I think this is kind of what is more responsible for the sell off we saw. Essentially, right now, we want the Fed to cut rates. You know, we want we want the Fed to cut rates. And there's two reasons why they would do that. One of two reasons or two reasons. Inflation is moving back down 2 percent. Inflation is cooling and the labor market is weakening. Those are the reasons they have. They need a reason to cut rates. They can't just cut rates because they feel like it. They need political cover. They need to see one of these two things or both
saw the jolts market. And I think this is kind of what is more responsible for the sell-off we saw.
ideally happening to say, OK, now it's time to loosen monetary policy. We're seeing inflation
come down. We're seeing employment in the labor market weaken. OK, so we need to come off a little
bit. We need to step off the brakes a little bit to give the economy some breathing room.
But the problem is the jolts
market, which is essentially just jobs openings, okay, how much demand is there for new work,
increased by 350,000. So we're seeing an increase and we're seeing a strengthening of the labor
market at a time when we really want to see weakness in the labor market. You know, we're
officially in that bad news is good news phase when it comes to the labor market, because we
want the Fed to have a reason to cut. We want the Fed to say, when it comes to the labor market, because we want the Fed to
have a reason to cut. We want the Fed to say, OK, look at the labor market is struggling.
It's weakening. Unemployment is high. Job openings are low. We need to cut rates. And lower rates are
positive for risk assets. You know, higher rates put pressure on equities in crypto. So that's what
we want to see. And we didn't see that today.
And so I think that combined with, you know, again, kind of a mixed signal of we're seeing
increased strength in the labor market, but we're also seeing a contracting economy. We're seeing
ISM still below 50, not to mention that the China chair of exemptions are due any day now,
in a week, a couple of days. And I think the closer we get to that date without
some sort of concrete plan, we're going to extend the exemptions or we're going to make a deal or
whatever it is, the closer we get to that date without seeing that, the more markets are going
to panic. So just brace yourselves for that. But I think that the aggressive rhetoric from the
administration, from Trump is over in regards to China.
I don't think he'll go back to where we were.
And so I have to imagine that we'll extend those exemptions or we'll figure something out to keep where we're at with China right now,
which is an exemption on the new tariffs.
So there could be an opportunity there as well if you want to try and do something.
I don't know.
For me, I'm just happy to sit in my spot bags and wait because I do believe in what's coming.
Fundamentally, we are set up for an incredibly bullish run in crypto.
Bitcoin to new all-time highs, $150k to $200k remains my base case.
ETH to $7k or $8k is my lowest point I expect to see it.
Could go to five figures if the right conditions are met.
If we see ETH ETF staking, another massive catalyst, by the way, fundamentally, we are there. We are ready to go to new all-time
highs. What is holding us back is this uncertainty, this macro overcast, high rates,
quantitative tightening, China tariff uncertainty there, and a contracting economy still,
I think, really as a result of those tariffs.
A resolution to these things
is in the short to medium term, I do believe.
We'll see a lot of this get ironed out
before the end of the year.
Expect this cycle to run into 2026.
And really patience here is the ultimate alpha.
Hey man, I really appreciate that macro frankie is uh become a staple of
of this space now so you're obligated to come to come on every every week and give us the uh
macro analysis but i think it's really helpful man it's it's really great to have that kind of
educated take and i hope to get more uh get more educated people like yourselves and various,
someone for real world assets, someone for, who knows, like gold and stocks and things like that.
We'd love to create a panel and a cast here with educated people like yourself, man. So Goose,
you had something to mention? Yeah, I just had a quick question for him because I was wondering about the lowering of the interest rates. Am I accurate in my estimation right now from what I
see? Aren't both things that you feel are necessary to lower interest rates are actually going the opposite direction?
Isn't inflation not lowering?
Isn't it stabilizing, but it's not lowering at a significant rate?
Isn't unemployment going down?
Did I misunderstand?
Am I incorrect?
No, yeah.
I mean, yeah, sadly, the things that we want to see happening aren't happening.
And CPI is coming in below expectations, but it is going up still
slightly. But again, that could be the beginning of the tariff inflation that Fed Powell is
concerned about. Powell has come out consistently and said that the uncertainty from tariffs,
tariff-driven inflation is preventing them from cutting rates. He even said at the ECB panel today
that you can say that whether or not this is actually true, but he's saying that if it
weren't for tariffs, they probably would already be cutting rates. So they're worried about the
inflation from tariffs. And then also the labor market is showing signs of strength. So you're
right. We're not moving in that direction, but I think, I think every, you know, we're still
really high, right? We're not talking about cutting rates to zero. We're talking about just
moving them down 25, 50 basis. Yeah. Quarter yeah quarter point right just a quarter point in the right direction
we'll start it off right it would be great it would be just a great a great sign so i think
i think september we can we can look forward to that as long as we don't see a massive spike in
inflation or significant strengthening in the in the labor market and we see in work because what
he said is that we need to see the data from the summer months
to understand what tariffs are going to do to inflation.
So what does that play to see?
Yeah, man, great points.
And I think, you know, I think one interesting point of topic as well could be the big, beautiful
bill.
It's so big and so beautiful.
And maybe we can talk about that a little bit next week and and how that might
affect uh things and honestly that there's a there's a solid divide solid kind of almost like
a libertarian versus maga divide on whether that bill is is what's good for the economy and what's
good for cryptocurrency so maybe that could be a topic for next week. We won't mention ICE creating all these job openings either.
Yeah, man.
Absolutely.
So good point there at the end.
Guys, we are going to close the space.
We're over time here.
We did have the interruption, so we went on just a little bit longer.
But I want to respect everyone's time.
Calls to action before you go.
Guys, if you do happen to make all those profits from all the advice, the strategies, rather the strategies we were talking about, it is not advice.
It is not financial advice.
Want to clarify that.
If you happen to make those profits, use SilentSwap, man, to keep those profits secure, safe, and private.
Go to silentswap.com and you can basically change your funds and keep anonymity and make sure that your privacy is completely retained on-chain in DeFi using that system there.
V2 is well on its way to the consumer front as well very soon so i have to mention that main account there show your love for the account and
this this interesting topic that we brought this was not a chilly space this was just a space where
we we talk about the macro market and we get experts up here we get really intelligent people
that are speaking on these different topics and helping us learn and educate so it's a pure
entertainment space not a sponsored kind of paid for type of thing.
And lastly, throw a follow on all the speakers that came up here today.
Myself on the CoinMirage account, Papa Stonics, Goose, Frankie Bucks, Ahmed Altcoin, Audrey, Cal, NFT Kid as well, Tina, just to name some of them.
And other than that, good luck with your trading endeavors.
Again, not financial advice, guys.
We're not promising that any of the things that we said
are going to make or lose you money.
Your financial decisions are, in fact, your own.
And please use your own discretion
and take responsibility for your own actions.
Papa Song, did you have something to say to leave us off here?
Yes, stable, stable,
stable. And if you're not off ramping it, at least keep it in stables and something like USDC,
you can create liquidity pools with it and earn off of that. But in the meantime, I do, I always want to hear community opinions. Everybody, after all of these spaces, there's a
link at the top. I pinned it up there. We have the Squid Grow After Party VC. So everybody come to
the VC so the community can join in the discussion. And, you know, I want to hear your
guys' thoughts and opinions on everything that's been spoken about and maybe your strategies as well.
So, yeah, definitely join VC immediately after this.
And one thing I'm going to do, I think I'm going to finally bite the bullet and get in Papastonk's DMs and start to apprentice under him to learn about, hey, what are these bots that he's talking about that are doing these percent trades?
Like, you know, a lot of people want to use technology on their trading and or just like
learn about leverage trading and things like that.
So Papa Song's DMs are open to everyone all the time.
Just every single person spam him at once.
Let's go, guys.
Fill up his inbox, ruin his life.
But no, in all seriousness, don't do that.
But thank you guys for coming on here.
And we will see you next time at SoundSwap.
Join the Telegram for SquidGrow for the after party, for the after conversation,
and join the SquidGrow space tomorrow, I believe, 3 p.m. Eastern,
and then we're going to do another one on Thursday at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Cray, Cray, I won't be there tomorrow.
Yeah, I can't be there tomorrow either tomorrow either i've got other engagements but
on 8 p.m on thursday i will certainly be there for the official squid grow space so
much love guys and we'll see you next time Thank you.
