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HUMANOID ROBOTICS | $KOID DEEP DIVE
Recorded: Sept. 24, 2025 Duration: 2:34:36Space Recording
Short Summary
The conversation delves into the burgeoning robotics sector, highlighting trends in humanoid technology, strategic partnerships, and significant fundraising efforts. With major tech players investing heavily, the potential for growth and innovation in this space is immense, paving the way for new projects and token launches.
Full Transcription
You you what is up everybody? How are we doing? Evan, would you, did we get your back?
Mic check, Evan.
Yeah, okay, you got me now.
Sometimes spaces can be doing weird stuff.
I know we got Amp over on a live stream as well.
The multitasking should be good for me to come in and host this.
Eli Lilly's down a little bit.
Transmedics.
Interesting.
Let me quickly look at my heat map.
See what's standing out.
Oracle and Palantir, the downside.
Tesla, the upside.
Energy's looking pretty strong in here.
Utilities.
Semiconductors. NVIDIA is red, but is red but like an AMD Texas instrument Intel is up 5% Intel over 30 we got a micron red 161 some interesting moves going on what is
up mr. options Mike how are you doing hey Evan how are you man I am doing I'm
doing okay I'm doing okay crazy times I need a vacation how are you, man? I'm doing okay. I'm doing okay. Crazy times.
I need a vacation. How are you doing, sir?
Dude, a vacation. I just booked my next one. It's not until April, so yeah, I need one too.
You watch anything in this market? You take any trades yet?
I traded Tesla about three or four times today. Up on it overall, but not an easy trade today.
It just came off the high of the day.
But, you know, we talked about that this week is typically a down week in the markets.
And Monday was like, well, maybe not.
But now we're getting it.
And we haven't gone anywhere.
So, I mean, please, let's not like joke around.
not like joke around we know we're just on the eight day here on the spy we're just sitting on
We're just on the eight day here on the SPY.
We're just sitting on there.
there we haven't gone anywhere but you know the market's showing some you know we tend to get that
We haven't gone anywhere.
this this week it tends to get this this week the jewish high holidays we tend to get a little
weakness in the markets but it's not everything i mean there's lots of things going on under the
covers lac having a huge day tesla having a big day as you said amd still holding in just fine
you know marvel up nicely today um you know it's it's kind of not everything the bank's coming in
energy names up i think it was uh btu having a huge day in the natural gas space hood put another
all-time high in today you know it's it's it's kind of one of those markets where you just kind of sit back and say, I'm going to just take it easy.
And that's basically what I'm doing.
I'm not forcing trades into this.
It's messy.
It's not fun.
You know, Apple's still holding well down today, but overall holding in well after that huge move.
Amazon, I don't know.
They don't want it.
They're killing Amazon here back to 220.
Palantir down a little bit today,
but it still looks good overall.
Baidu had a freaking phenomenal move,
and the Chinese names have been strong.
Baidu and Baba,
and very strong bull looking like it wants to try to break out here.
I know we got a lot of traders on this show.
I'm still not going to invest in the Alibabas and the China's names of the world.
Oh, I wouldn't invest in me neither.
Yeah.
I get the traders want to trade it, but it's just not my thing.
I think the biggest problem is for me is you have to generally hold it overnight to get the trade, right?
The trade on these names always seems to come overnight.
And I just don't trust China, and i just want nothing to do with that
that is not where i am playing but i know they have been doing pretty well when i was looking
at some of the vanguard's top performing funds so far this year they were all international ones
which i found to be a little bit interesting I'm still mostly just gonna invest in the
US names but a lot of these mega US mega cap names they get a lot of their money
from abroad so you're still getting a lot of that abroad exposure um yes
appreciate you Mike I see we also got me join us up here mean how you doing hey
guys I'm good how are you guys doing I'm doing well. I saw your post.
I didn't get the... It's been
quite the wild time. Rivian, was this
about? There's the post. It's looking pretty nice.
It's been looking pretty good over the last couple days.
How are you doing, Hamid? Was there something
you were excited about coming into this?
Well, Rocket Lab had this
sort of enormous day yesterday,
and then it's basically given back all of it today.
So it's kind of been interesting.
And both of it is like on no news, basically.
So Rocket Lab is one of my largest or my largest position.
It's been interesting to sort of watch that volatility.
It's been interesting to sort of watch that volatility.
The stuff I've been watching, no different than normal Robinhood, which is making all-time highs.
Ribion, which has been on a rip for the past few weeks.
It's been also very volatile, but overall, it's been up.
It broke 15 a couple of days ago, and then it's getting close to 16 now.
So it's starting to add as it's getting closer
to its AI autonomy day in December,
and then R2 launch next year.
Meta, which I was hoping would have a nice pop this week
from its, or since last week,
because of its Glasses launches launches has basically not done much
so um it's been a little disappointing on on metas front from the standpoint of the stock price but
uh obviously you know we haven't seen any sort of revenue or earnings announcements around it so
um it's understandable and then uh yeah yeah, it's been an interesting market.
And of course, things are generally close to all-time highs.
So it is kind of scary, too.
You know, like when is the music going to end is a big question.
Any of these names in there interesting for you?
What names that you don't own are you keeping an eye on?
Maybe some of them that have run a good little bit,
that you're like all pulled back.
Are there any names like that out there, Hamid?
Of course, it's kind of like NVIDIA is unavoidable
to sort of keep track on.
Tesla, the usual suspects, right?
Like, basically...
I know you're not an Elon guy, but you do like your Cybertruck, right?
You could almost call me an Elon guy.
I like Elon and what accomplishments he's made.
I mean, I just don't like certain things about him.
The trillion- dollar pay package
is one of those things that I think is really bad. It sets a really bad precedent. I think you're
going to start seeing others requesting massive payouts for CEOs, which was already like this
massive gap between the average worker and the CEOs. I think that gap is generally somewhere in the
neighborhood of 500 to 1 for large companies, like Fortune 500 CEOs or something. But this is
beyond just 500 or 1,000 to 1. And by the way, that gap is not that crazy for founder-led CEOs because founder-led CEOs generally get very little pay or compensation
normally. But he's basically growing that gap to the point of not just from 500 to 1, but
200,000 to 1. It's insane. Basically, all other employees combined of Tesla for the next 10 years are not going to make even a quarter of what he's asking for.
And they all have to work his ass off in order to accomplish those goals.
But he's the only one who gets rewarded.
So to me, that just seems like absolutely insane.
and I'm battling a lot of people who feel like,
well, if he creates $7 trillion worth of value
for stockholders, he deserves a trillion.
I just don't understand that mindset.
But he's also going to add an additional trillion dollars
in value for himself by adding $7 trillion of value to the Tesla stock because he already owns
so much Tesla.
So even if his pay was zero, he'd still get a trillion dollars just from his stock going
So the trillion he's asking for is an additional trillion.
And the fact that we're even using the word trillion for a comp package of one person
is just mind-blowingly nuts.
I just don't, I can't understand how people are just like voting guests for this package and posting their votes on X.
It's very disappointing to see.
Because if they don't give it to him, he'll leave, and he'll throw a fit, and they'd rather have him around.
That's their feeling, I guess, anyway.
They'll say he'll just stick with XAI and SpaceX,
and they'll say, screw Tesla.
But I agree.
I'm not saying that's their thinking.
A, if all his intent was to get control,
he could accomplish getting control using reverse merger tactics.
I mean, there's other ways to accomplish it.
So 100%, I call bullshit on that.
And B, the reality is that he already has the entire support of shareholders and the board.
And this pay package is a perfect example of how
he's asking for something ridiculous and everyone's going along with it. The board,
A, handed it to him and B, the shareholders are about to vote very deterministically.
Absolutely. You can have this pay package. So he has the support of the board and shareholders. So in the event that the board and or shareholders are like,
no, Elon Musk go, something has gone terribly wrong. And in that event, he's just sort of like
trying to prevent if something has gone terribly wrong from him being able to be removed.
Which, by the way, there's other ways to accomplish that like uh you know
facebook has that meta has that using the uh 10x voting uh rights capabilities um you know the
google founders have that type of protection as well from a control standpoint but um but control
is not his only motive clearly the money the money is as well, the overall compensation is,
which is why he's insisting on going about it this way.
Evan, are you talking or is anyone else talking?
I can't hear anyone.
Let me ask you something.
Do you think that Elon's 1 billion purchase in Tesla,
you can conclude that that was likely to gain voting control of the Tesla shares, right?
I mean, it's such a small percentage that it's kind of like hard to say definitively,
but like it does influence the price of the stock.
He knows that he could turn around and sell those shares for a higher price the next week.
And because the filing happens after the sale, he would still have a pretty substantial gain on them.
But it increases shareholder confidence.
It basically creates this sort of rally around not only the share price, but also him, and
therefore increases the probability that people would vote yes.
So besides the half a percent, or like, I'm sorry, not half a percent, besides the tiny
percentage that he adds from a voting perspective by having a billion dollars more shares.
But but he does sort of increase the enthusiasm and likelihood of other people voting yes.
So my guess would be yes to your answer, but it's hard to say definitively, obviously.
So I want to ask a follow-up question to that.
Between now and the near future, do you think that there's a chance we see Elon make some more purchases to gain some more control in any kind of scenarios?
It's over.
The date of ownership had to be like last Monday, if I'm not mistaken.
So yeah, it's over.
Like any shares you buy now,
you can't vote on this particular event anyway.
So no, that's not going to happen.
I would say from this point forward,
he's only going to sell shares.
That would be my guess.
Can he sell them quickly though?
I thought he has to hold them for a certain amount of time.
Only the new shares, his existing 13%, which he freaking owns a ridiculous amount of Tesla.
He can do whatever he wants. And the billion dollars he just bought, he can do whatever he wants.
I'm still dying to know where he got that billion dollars from because as he always says, he's cash poor.
So what did he take that loan against or is it against the future payout of his pay package it's just weird to me well
first of all he did sell over 40 billion dollars worth of shares a couple years ago so he was
cash poor up until that massive sale of Tesla stock I thought a lot of that went into Tesla
into buying Twitter and some other things.
It did, mainly Twitter.
I don't know if he bought anything else, but he also borrowed a lot of money to buy Twitter,
and he has other investors.
So it's unclear how much of his own money he put into the Twitter purchase.
But basically, when you have a certain amount of money in a public stock, it doesn't actually matter.
You can sort of take margin on them.
So you have access to cash or line of credits, essentially, from basically every institution that holds these shares.
So it would be easy for him to access even $50 billion of cash on just margin, basically.
He can access large amounts of cash based on
today's stock prices yeah I thought a lot of his options is stock options and stock was
already leveraged out but still was just interesting it's a good point no I like
based on all indications of what's available, like information that's available, he's not leveraged anymore.
Once he made those massive sales of Tesla stock, which was to the tune of over 40 billion a couple of years ago, he was no longer leveraged.
But even if he was leveraged, it would be in the tens of billions of dollars at most.
And his Tesla stock alone is easily worth, what, now $150 to $200 billion, maybe even more than that, at a $1.4 trillion valuation. you can easily borrow 40, 50% of that amount.
Most of the financial institutions let you borrow
pretty substantial amounts of money against that kind of asset.
And then that doesn't even include his SpaceX asset,
which is another $100 billion plus of value.
So yeah, he's definitely got credit ability to borrow a significant amount
of money if he wanted to. I don't think he is though. Thank you.
Hey, Hamid, I got one more question for you. It's going to totally segue the subject, but I think a
lot of people would be interested in this one a little bit. The last time I spoke to you, we saw
Robinhood around that $115 area, but now we're
seeing it at $130 or rejecting $130. You know, we saw $129 the other day. How are you feeling
about Robinhood right now? And what do you think about Robinhood in the near future?
So my second largest position is Robinhood. And as a company, I think they're executing exceptionally well.
But, you know, like, is the price really high?
Is a lot of the future baked into the current price?
The answer is, I think so, but you never know.
Like, look at how much of the future is now baked into Palantir's price. So when I think about Robinhood, I think about it from the standpoint of it's overvalued currently, in my opinion, despite it being my second largest holding, and therefore I'm trimming as it hits new highs.
easily be doing three times, four times its current revenue. It could easily have five or
six times its current profits because every new dollar of revenue can actually be more profitable.
So when you factor that in, then the price doesn't seem kind of crazy four or five years from now.
So if you're looking at it from a long-term perspective, Robinhood is pretty, you know, I think it's a pretty good company to own long-term.
But from a short-term perspective, let's say sub one year or two years, I think the price
is pretty high.
So if there was a like major market correction, could Robinhood and Rocket Lab, which are
again, two of my largest holdings get hit pretty substantially?
Absolutely.
I think they could get hit more than my other holdings, for example.
Awesome.
Thank you, man.
I appreciate that.
Hamid, you want to run the gambit and talk about your other large position, Rivian?
Yeah, we had a pretty in-depth discussion with Evan and Gov about Rivian.
I posted it actually on my timeline.
If you guys are interested in Rivian, I would recommend watching that.
But I think basically the things that make me super bullish about Rivian is it's following the footsteps of Tesla,
is following the footsteps of Tesla,
meaning that they have the full stack,
the full EV stack,
the software, the hardware, the battery,
tech, the vehicles.
They're making most of the parts themselves.
They're making the software themselves.
They have vision all around the cam,
every single car that they make,
meaning the same sort of camera systems
that vision camera systems that Tesla have,
except higher resolution cameras.
And they have LiDAR and radar on their vehicles as well, just in case those turn out to be more valuable for full self-driving capabilities.
And then they have an AI autonomy team that is working on this stuff in-house as well.
an AI autonomy team that is working on this stuff in-house as well. So all of these things combined
with their sort of like R2 product that's coming up next year at a much more affordable price point
and possibly the only viable great option, EV option outside of the Model Y and Model 3,
option, EV option outside of the Model Y and Model 3, they're in a really good position
to capitalize on all of these things.
So when you take into consideration that Rivian is an $18 billion company and Tesla is currently
a $1.4 trillion company, I think Rivian is in a pretty good shape. Like they could easily, and this is again, you know,
like my opinion, not investment advice,
but I see Rivian as one of those companies
that could 10X over the next two, three years,
and it would only be $180 billion company.
It doesn't need to sort of beat Tesla,
but in order for it to be a great investment,
but it could really do well with just, you know,
people sort of believing
that it could do AI and autonomy.
And if the R2 is a success,
if it gets good reviews,
if the margins allow them
to sort of decrease their losses
on a quarterly basis next year,
and then like a path to profitability
becomes eminent,
they have like over 7 billion in cash to get there too, by the way,
and they're not burning that much.
So they have three years of time, three years of cash before they run out of cash.
So, you know, all of these things combined makes me super bullish on Rivian's future.
Yeah. Is there anyone talking?
No, no one's talking.
I think Evan dropped.
We lost Evan.
Well, to be honest, Evan, we were streaming together and kept kicking me off,
so I just returned the table.
What else do we have here?
Spartan, man, how about you come up and say something?
What are you thinking here?
Yeah, sure.
Can you guys hear me? Yep good yes sir okay i'm not sure what's
going on there um yeah i mean i can kind of give you guys general market thoughts or i'm not sure
what we really want to talk about here but um you know obviously tech being a little bit extended
to the upside i do love the relative strength names. We were talking obviously about Tesla. It looks fantastic
for continuation of the upside. I think
we should see a little bit more
of a bigger leg up.
You're breaking this weekly range at
438, 440.
Pretty much has a straight shot to all-time
highs now. Assuming we can
get above that Monday
high, I think you're going to get some really nice
strong continuation into the end of the week. It tends to trade in big spurts um last week uh i guess i'm like you know
we started to grab it long uh on the the 10th and then the 7th and the 6th so we got a really nice
uh push to the upside like i said tends to trade in spurts where you get one to two days of
a very large momentum movement it looks like it's setting up again for that type of continuation. So love that. We've been grabbing a lot of and
trading a lot of these smaller caps as of late. I don't know if you guys saw, but it looks like
they're going to be removing that PDT rule, which should be even better for the smaller cap market.
The sustainable lows in these low quotes is quite special right now. We haven't seen that in a long time.
And it's been about three months of this.
So I have a lot of focus on these smaller names when I see unusual volume or I see interesting situations.
I'll give you an example.
This TNFA that ran, I put it out on Twitter about two weeks ago.
I talked about it in my rooms last week.
And I was going through it.
I saw a filing. It was a $7 million
debenture with one of the shareholders, one of the biggest shareholders in the company.
The company is located in New York. It's a biotech deal. So obviously, I was thinking
they're probably doing something here. I was thinking potentially a treasury, but obviously
they decided to get into the quantum. Ended up being a really nice play to get into.
Been able to do this a few different times.
The unusual volume of block buying is something you definitely want to look for on the small cap side.
Look for names that haven't really moved or that looks like they're kind of keeping them down.
And you can get into some really nice situations based off of that. You can even screen for it.
Look for 50k to 100k blocks.
And if you see that,
usually it's a pretty decent sign.
There was one yesterday on PLTS.
There was a couple hundred
K blocks where they were
keeping it pinned.
And, you know,
lo and behold,
now it's up a buck today.
You may see something,
you know,
in terms of bigger momentum
in the next couple of days.
In regards to the MegaTap tech,
you know,
I think the semiconductors
are still kind of the place to be.
ABGO is a little bit lagging behind SMCI and Qualcomm today.
obviously earnings were strong and solid,
but it had an absolute rip into those earnings in the last couple of weeks
here.
So it doesn't surprise me that it didn't get a,
you know,
continuation follow through.
I think the market on the tech side is taking a little bit of a breather.
I don't love the, I guess, the Meg7 names as much as before.
Individually, if you see that relative strength in one of them or two of them, like we saw a couple weeks ago on Google, you definitely want to go after them.
But I don't think it's worth looking to rotate money into the ones that aren't performing.
You want to follow the momentum in this tape.
I think the biggest thing in this tape is following the momentum, you know,
on the mega-catch side, the mid-catch side.
And the mid-catch are starting to pick up a little bit as well.
One of the main things that I'm looking for is unusual options activity on these
like sub-$50 stocks.
I think you can see some pretty solid continuation on them.
And we've seen
some decent momentum on things like bull which i'm long right now i'm watching this uh you know
newsmax off the low snapchat um you know we talked about rivian there i think it looks fantastic
into the close too so these smaller names that are often you know gets a little bit of unusual
option activity usually get some pretty nice ball through momentum. Yeah, guys, that's kind of what I'm looking at overall.
Let me ask you, are you feeling like, you know, I'm looking at some of these names like ONDS and Rocket Lab,
who all of a sudden reversed harder.
Are we seeing volatility come in because they just run too much?
Or is this kind of the sign of the market with these small caps?
They're going to get this and then they'll just go running back up the next day or two.
I think it's a hot potato kind of market on the small caps.
So that's what we've seen.
It's a little bit more sustainable this week than last week,
but it certainly is a hot potato where people's attention, you know,
goes from one thing to the other.
And when that happens, you typically get the selling that occurs.
But with that being said, I mean, you see ONDS, you see Rocket Lab,
you look at the daily charts, they're all holding EMA supports. Most of the time they're pulling back, it's because
they're extended. Today, ONDS was extended to the upside, it's pulling back, filling a little
extension gap. Rocket Lab, I probably would look at this one more on the weekly than the daily.
It's a little bit easier to kind of see what's going on there. Daily chart looks like it's below,
you know, let's say short-term EMA support. But on the weekly, you can see that's certainly holding the channel to the upside. So that's kind of the way that I look at these ones. It's below, let's say, short-term EMA support. But on the weekly, you can see that's certainly holding the channel to the upside.
So that's kind of the way that I look at these ones.
It's ride them in the short-term momentum to the upside.
You can day trade them.
Or when they're pulling back, look at the hourly, look at the daily.
Find where those, either there are going to be trend supports or EMA supports that you like to use.
And typically, those are nice buying opportunities.
Thanks, Bart.
I don't know if Evan's back yet, so I'll keep rolling here unless he interrupts me.
Jeffrey Hirsch, my friend, tell us what's going on with the Stock Traders Almanac
and how this is typically a week loop in the markets.
Well, yeah, I mean, we're seeing some of the weakness here it's end of q3 week after triple
witching a lot of churning ahead of the you know mutual fund um 40x fund october 31st deadline
window dressing portfolio restructuring and uh sell rosh hashanah uh which is happening it's
just kind of lines up pretty well this year with the end of Q3,
week after triple witching stuff.
But what I really want to focus on, you know, this potential pause
or what we might be experiencing is really just a pause that refreshes.
My best case scenario for 25 is really firmly in play.
You know, seasonality was bearish historically
the last couple of months. But when that bearish seasonality does not transpire, that is a bullish
indication that there's more powerful forces at play. And I think we all know that. New all-time
highs in bearish September has historically been bullish. There's only been two Q4 losses in those 22 years.
So it's up about 90% of the time for Q4.
So I don't know.
I kind of got the rally cap on.
I'm looking for S&P 7100 by year end.
We're looking at another 20% year.
Next year is a different story. We're also
looking at a bunch of small caps. We just put out a new basket of stocks for our newsletter
subscribers and picked up a bunch of them. A couple of them ran away a little bit. But
there's a lot of opportunity out there. And I think any of this week, this is, you know, I hate to say it.
It's a by the dip period.
And I don't see the anything real negative in the market over the next quarter or so.
Yeah.
I mean, the fourth quarter is very typically strong on a year like this as well.
I think we've all been talking about that.
And I wish there's a page.
There's a page in the Almanac
that says, it's titled Q4
Market Magic. I mean, it's
the quarter, even in this
year, but go ahead. I mean, I think
we'd all love to see some actual weakness in this
market other than these little two-day pullbacks
we get, but it's been so difficult.
I'm not expecting
anything more than low
single digits, you know, maybe a handful of a percent.
I just I just can't see any reason with the the not fighting the Fed, not fighting the tape.
You know, I'd love to get into a couple more things, the Bitcoin included.
we may have seen the low there
We may have seen the low there. It's just looking at the uptrend.
just looking at the uptrend
maybe we
hit that line again I was hoping for a little
bit lower on the IBD ETF
but I did grab a bunch of
the small
caps that we put out
on some dips the other week
I like Super Micro I own that
you know that's
given us some opportunity to get in there on
on weakness to where's that trading today here where you got super micro yeah i mean we own it
lower than this it's a little weak today we're like it around you know somewhere in the 40 45
area but um i think there's some possibilities there.
Yeah, get ready for the fourth quarter rally.
I think it's going to be a monster.
Thanks, Jeff.
Evan, you back yet?
Nope.
All right, I'm not sure who hasn't had a chance yet. So, Wolfie, I don't think I've heard you.
You want to come up and tell us what you're looking at here
and what you're thinking?
Sure.
So, yeah uh sure so i think uh the last couple days is like kind of got your sign about things possibly
just um just kind of coming back a little bit not looking for you know the last couple times i
wasn't looking for anything like crashy or anything like that.
So I don't want people to think I get the wrong idea.
But there were signs that things were extended.
Yesterday when I was trying to go in depth about it, I got rugged.
But basically, I'll just read the stats. So basically, yesterday, Barclays High Volatility Index was working on its 14th straight day of green with RSI sitting at 86, which is an all-time record back in 2004.
Spread above the 200-day for that vol index was about 32% above its 200-day, also a record.
200 day,
also a record.
There's only been two other times where it was like,
you know,
in a similar ballpark,
which was coming out the GFC lows in 2021.
And then I think it was 2000 and coming out the GFC lows and then the 2021
meme mania stuff.
And then,
you know,
outside of that, there's a lot of other things that have worked
that aren't like that aren't like the quantum names or the the mania names or anything like
that that are you know perceived as safe haven or perceived as uh you know a little more defensive
one of them being gold and gdx so gdx is was, I don't know where it's at today, but this is yesterday.
It was above 54% above its 200-day, which the only two times that you saw a greater
spread was in 2007.
2007 and then the second time was in 2016 where it was coming out of a major bear market
And then the second time was in 2016, where it was coming out of a major bear market.
so basically that's just a these aren't these aren't like you know sell everything you know
everything's going large but it's just to give an idea of how you know up into the right a lot
of things have gotten and it wasn't just you know one sector the other thing is like some of these some of the market favorites um that people kind of
like have loved to trade they've they've kind of been consolidating and they get up to the highs
and then they they back off of them uh they get aggressively bought back to the highs back off of
them and it creates this like pain trade where you get in some cases, you get this melt-up where it rides either the 5-day or 10-day.
But you don't get any of these real retests on the index itself or on these individual stocks themselves.
So you guys were talking about Robinhood.
That's been one, for example, where it's kind of in price perfection on the options front.
for example, where it's kind of in price perfection on options front. You know, and
outside of just like clipping it here and there, it's basically tough to just kind of
Momo ride it. But then for every one of those, there's, you know, other names that are smaller
that just become the new flavor. So quantum stocks, for example, in the last, I think,
10 days where they become like the new flavor for momentum
so you know with that said i'm just kind of i'm kind of talking my book a little bit because i
did short the s&p yesterday um covered a little bit of that today i'm looking for let me see i'll
give you the exact levels yeah i was gonna ask how far down are you looking for here on this
yeah i'm looking for it so we covered uh i covered a lot and we covered a lot into the 6620 support range.
But if we crack that, I mean, I'm not looking for much.
I'm looking for like 6590 on a 6600 overshoot.
I think if that cell at 6600 level kind of cracks, it could open the door for a retest of the 20-day.
But again, I'm not looking for anything exogenous, anything crazy.
And part of that is due to some of these names that have kind of propped things up.
So just take a look at Google, for example.
It's the first time since it gapped up that it's like broke down on a five-day basis,
four-hour basis, hourly basis um the first time
underneath the eight day now and correct almost a month yeah correct so yeah so like the momentum
juice kind of dries up a little bit so could that just mean it's going to consolidate 100
could it could just go sideways but the problem is that for i'd say about the last month when we
have these conversations we talk about how you know we have days where like NVIDIA and Apple are up, but like Tesla and Amazon and Google are down and vice versa.
And they just kind of like spun these plates for about a month, month and a half.
And now it doesn't seem like there's, I guess Tesla you can point to outside of Tesla on those Mac names.
It doesn't really seem like
there are you know any of the names kind of like leading currently you know could that change the
next couple days with the headline sure uh the one i'd watch on a mega cap front uh you know from a
setup perspective would be uh avgo broadcom it's traded back to its 20 day it's holding this gap up that it had in the back of earnings um you know from for like from a bullish perspective you want you want that kind of setup
to kind of hold just to kind of you know have a a larger weighting that that also has derivative
components to trade off the back of it that could kind of like hold things together a little bit
so yeah i'm not looking again i'm not looking for anything crazy you guys talk about seasonality you guys about all that stuff but i was looking
for some sort of like you know mean reversion to the downside a little bit uh but that being said
there are you know a lot of names that continue to work there's a lot of names that are green and a
red tape uh hamid talked about rivian rivian's one of my biggest positions as well it's been
it's kind of like,
it's a setup for that 2026 ramp up into mass market production. Not looking for, you know,
a real competitive, like head to head competition between it and Tesla or any of the other automakers just looking for like a slice of the pie and like the, you know, just a slice of the
pie would work to create a meaningful upside.
Another one that I talked about in the last few days was Teladoc.
That one, from an options perspective, really exploded.
Traded up and through its 200-day yesterday.
It's kind of flirting there.
If it were to break out of this 200-day,
I really think this is the type of name because of how small it is that people can just kind of like push around
just from it's from a performance chase perspective and then you know there's you know
cure was a bio today that kind of took off um on the back of some headlines uh i'll let the bio
guys talk about it but or that or any of the bios
i want to talk about but but there are other names that are in like the same type of cohorts which
are like these smaller bio names that that when i say smaller i don't mean like small small caps i
mean like mid cap smid cap names that kind of uh are green in a in a red tape that you know have these these probable setups but
outside of that like uh from the flip side you know the really high momo stuff that just like
you could have blindly chased in the last week some airs coming out of the balloon i really
think that kind of stuff's healthy um and you know it's not of the, like if we all are on the same page, quote unquote,
we're all on the same page, not expecting anything major to happen.
And, you know, by year end, if nothing major happens, there will be performance chase.
Then you really want to see in that intermediary phase between now and, you know, the back
half of the next three months you know just kind of have
some consolidation on some of these names or some back and fall on some of these names so that that
kind of stuff can work in uh in your favor so you know that's that's pretty much it um i see i see
jeff's got his hand up so i'll just stop there if there's any questions have the answer thanks
wolfie jeff what you got so you're talking about about just a second ago that, you know, we don't get we're all expecting the same thing.
And if nothing happens by the end of the year, then, you know, you got to start protecting stuff.
So next year, you know, the 2026 Stock Traders Almanac is out.
I handed out a bunch. I saw Evan there and handed out a bunch of copies of Future Proof out in Huntington Beach earlier this month at the Ritholtz event.
Total regime change for financial conferences, by the way.
It's like jazz fest for money.
It's super cool.
But in the 26th Almanac, I'm already looking for some weakness next year.
You know, I'm a big four-year cycle guy.
Midterm elections still, you know, where most bear markets are a bottom.
It's like, you know, a bottom picker's paradise.
And that Q2, Q3 period of, you know, post-election, excuse me, midterm election years is that weak spot.
you know, post election, excuse me, midterm election years is that weak spot.
So it's really a period of time that I'm getting concerned about.
10 of the last 16 bear markets have bottomed in the midterm year.
22 was case in point.
We were all over that.
And, you know, on top of what I guess it was Wolfie was just saying, I think it was Wolfie speaking.
Yep.
We, you know, we're setting up for that right here again.
And, you know, part of the reason that this happens is that the attention gets taken away from fiscal and the market and the incumbent administration tries to maintain its control over things.
And we've got some, you know, razor thin majorities in Congress.
And we know that that's going to be important to any administration, potentially even more so this one.
And that's going to shift focus away from the Fed or, you know, beating up the Fed and all the other stuff and what's going on with
the market. They're going to be trying to win elections across all districts. And this is what
sort of creates that midterm election year vacuum. That and we're way up, you know,
valuations are high. The investors' intelligence, bullish sentiments up there again. I think we got the difference between bulls and bears is over 40 now, which is huge.
That's a cautionary area.
And while I'm pretty bullish for next year, my line in the outlook already that I wrote
back in Memorial Day was midterm 26 promises to be fraught with crisis, bear market action, and economic weakness.
I think tariffs can come home to roost with the impact on inflation.
And so enjoy it while we can.
I don't think it's the end of the world.
A little garden variety bear in 22.
I think the boom, the AI tech super boom is in full force.
I'm going to continue to kick in to higher gears.
But next year, mid-year, I expect some softness at a bare minimum.
Thanks, Jeff.
Welcome.
Kevin, you back?
I think somebody killed Evan.
Logical.
I don't think you've had a chance yet.
How about you tell us what you're looking at today and what you're seeing?
Oh, another glorious day.
Amazing.
Portfolio is up around 6% on the day, which is fantastic.
I have zero short exposure, so it's all the bios leading that.
I'm not going to be one of the people who pretend that I had a position in ClearPoint
Neuro or Cure before the data today, because I honestly wasn't sure how the data would
So as much as people love to celebrate, I know there were a lot of people that were
hopeful on this data, and rightfully so.
It's good for humanity on this Unicure Huntington's disease data.
The signals were not that clear, it was all really noisy.
So it could have gone either way.
But I think when you have no safety events and you're showing up,
showing that the treatment is continuing to hold up,
then, you know, you have this kind of reaction
and it should be a pretty straightforward path to approval.
You know,
ClearPoint Neuro is one that I've talked about a lot. ClearPoint Neuro provides, is like the
picks and shovels play on a lot of these gene therapies. They have the device that does the
delivery mechanism for a lot of these gene therapies. So no matter who wins, they will win.
And so I really like that. And so today, after the data came out, and I've been
saying this for a while, there's a lot of times in biotechs where I'd rather buy the gap up,
and then just size it up after the binary catalyst, which is what I've been doing on a lot
of these names. So after they have positive data readouts, the market doesn't fully price these
things in immediately. You know, it gets the big pop, but the upside can still be significant.
So a name like ClearPoint,
I think because Unicure was its furthest along partner,
that was a big overhang because if Unicure failed,
then their partner revenues were gonna, you know,
these trials take a long, long time,
but now they have like their first partner
to kind of commercialization at scale.
And that's going to be pretty significant for them in terms of additional incremental revenues.
But it also just kind of paves the path.
Intel has said to ask Apple to invest on the headlines.
What was that, Intel?
I saw somebody was selling tons of puts on Apple 250s today which is yeah it was interesting it
was intel yes okay um so yeah so the the cure and clearpoint i actually bought sizable positions
in those after the gap ups i bought cure at 40 i actually sold it at 50 today uh but it came back
down to 46 and i re re basically just got right back in on a full
position so a really nice trade intraday and i i want to hold this thing because i do think that
you know the upside could be tremendous you're talking about a 2.7 can i interrupt real quick
we have big news here intel just asked apple to invest at their comeback bid
yeah ask them to invest they just breaking news breaking news
reportedly asking apple to invest as part of a comeback.
Breaking news.
Big story out.
Intel is asking Apple to invest in them.
Sorry, I got a call and I just honestly was like,
all right, guys, fuck it.
We'll see what happens.
Yeah, you know, I had to take over for you.
I'm like, I'm going to kill you next time I see.
It's all over.
Sorry to interrupt.
Go ahead. That's some funny news, by the way way until ask Apple to invest that cracks me up no worries yeah so obviously that's big for
a lot of people who follow both those companies until a lot of news lately and
Apple a very resilient stock so nice to see that for sure but yeah I would say
today obviously I think probably the other
speakers mentioned, you know, there's a lot of red on the screen today. There's a lot of stocks
that are taking a breather. That's perfectly fine. And yeah, I just like to be, I don't know
if I would say diversified, because at this point, I'm fairly concentrated in the biotech sector.
I think the fattest pitches just continue to be there. So I just keep buying more of that.
And again, as I was mentioning, I think there's still a lot of value in the after the binary catalyst event.
So, yeah, so big positions back into ClearPoint and Cure after this clearing event.
I added a couple other positions as well.
I mean, I've been saying I'm big on Nectar and ABBX. This one is a big
winner for me today with my third largest position. CDTX Sidara Therapeutics up 20% today on like 5X
volume. Zebra Therapeutics, ZDRA, up 12% today on 4X volume.
So there's just, I don't know what's going on.
Well, I do know what's going on.
These are all buyout candidates that have very strong data.
And so that's what I'm doing.
I feel okay having extra large positions in these where I think that there can be tremendous upside.
So Evan, is that you with your mic on?
It's a little.
It might be.
Sorry.
Can you hear me?
Yeah, I think it was a little on.
I was just going to get some water.
Yeah, we heard it.
I thought you were in the bathroom, man.
That was a little inappropriate.
I was like, I got to say something.
I got to say, it has happened once in four years, five years.
I did go to the bathroom once and blame it on water.
Now, that's not in my water bottle.
It needs to get fulfilled.
I won't tell you guys.
Oh, we lost them?
Just let's see what's about to fail.
It's fantastic.
Yeah, very, very healthy year.
I'm up 146% now year to date, which is great.
You know, still continues to make new highs and you know i've taken a i think when we saw a little bit of momentum come off the other
day i felt like you know i looked at my like i was saying yesterday i looked at my ugliest candles
in the portfolio and i said chop chop chop um but today i'm you know coming back and adding back
that long exposure but just being a lot more selective
and more concentrated in the bio sector.
And yeah, I mean, again, you could still make a lot of money after that first gap up, in
my view, because it takes a lot of that binary out of the situation.
So while the reward gets lower moving forward, the risk also gets a lot lower.
So the risk- risk reward ratio becomes much
better. And that's kind of how I think about these things. So yeah, CBTX, absolute monster today.
It's kind of like becoming my largest position at this point, almost. What else? I mean,
it's just a great day. Great day for sciences. And yeah, these bios keep ripping.
There's the SLNO, also another interesting name, Soleno Therapeutics. This is a name that Scorpion Capital had a short report on recently.
And I think after I talked to a lot of experts, they kind of shrugging off that short report
and saying, I don't think these guys know what they're saying.
And a competitor, there's ACAD,
basically their drug failed, which means that SLNO just became a much stronger thesis.
So a lot of these things in this market is all about understanding the different players in
that specific space. Like for example, Sanofi the other day dropped 9, 10%, which is like a $10
billion market cap drop because one of their drugs didn't meet their
phase three endpoint in atopic dermatitis, which means that Nectar, that was the day that Nectar
was up like 30% because that was their major competitor, major bear case was that Sanofi was
just going to eat their lunch. And all of a sudden, Nectar, this kind of $1 billion company,
all of a sudden has the leading drug. And it's pretty crazy to think
about Sanofi drops $10 billion. And that day, Nectar went up like 100 million market cap or
something, 200 million market cap. So you can just see that there's still, it feels like if $10
billion was a true drop in that value because of that drug, you can only imagine what the upside
remains on a name like Nectar, for example. So that's why I remain very highly concentrated, overweight in a lot of these names, because the data is already out
there and it's best in class and there's still a lot of upside. So there's. Is anyone talking?
No one's talking?
No one is talking.
We don't know where Evan went.
Is that fun?
I'm alive.
I'm here.
I'll take over.
Go ahead, brother.
Who's up next?
Who isn't gone?
I think Urkel hasn't.
Urkel?
Take it away, brother.
Hey, what's up, guys?
It's been a few weeks.
Thanks for having me on.
How about Intel?
Stock talk.
I remember we were talking about this on spaces about two, three weeks ago.
I was talking about that year long base and potential breakout.
That's been a great swing. We were talking about it on the spaces there at the 23, 24, 25 dollar range after the U.S. government took a stake in that.
took a stake in that. Broadly speaking in the markets, I mean, it's been a bit of a weak start,
but SPY and the Qs have just basically pulled back to the nine EMAs and have bounced right
off the nine EMAs. So despite some weakness, broadly speaking, trend is still up to the upside
and pretty aggressively to the upside. we really still haven't had a
pullback of significance in this market for some time so I'm still playing the trend I
I was adding some swings kind of at the tail end of earning season when we saw some pullbacks and
some consolidation and some high beta names EMNNR was one of them. I posted...
Yo, Wolfie, can you put your...
I'm really sorry, guys.
I'm sorry, guys.
I didn't know that was on.
Are you eating a bag of chips?
I just got a sandwich.
I'm sorry.
Guys, no worries, man.
I hope you enjoy it.
So, yeah, BMNR was one of them.
I was buying down to about that 40 level.
I shared that chart a few weeks ago
where I thought it could potentially find the bottom and we trimmed that up
into the 60 61 range where it met some resistance so that's what I'm looking at
right now I've actually had pegged the 56 and the 51 dollar supports this week
as potential re-add spots 51 where it's at right now there's some weakness and there was some news, but that's
an area of interest for me around 51.52 with the 20 EMA sitting there as well. And with Ethereum
bouncing off a key $4,060 support level yesterday and hopefully or potentially putting in a daily
reversal candle. So that's one I've been keeping an eye on for reaccumulation here.
Robinhood, I heard a lot of talk about that,
some great analysis here, both fundamentally and technically.
For me, as long as it stays above the 125, 126 level,
which is the 161, 8th Fib level on the daily chart,
it does have room to continue to about 145 so that's one i've been keeping an eye on personally it did hit 130 and pull back today
but we did see a lot of weakness so not surprised tesla is another one i shared that $351 breakout level here a few weeks ago, and it had a really nice rally up to 430, which was my target.
430 is the next key resistance level,
and it danced around it on Monday and Tuesday,
and it's broken through it again today.
So on a weekly time frame,
it looks like it's trying to stay above the 430 level,
and if it can, it does have a runway to 480
Now Tesla's had a pretty nice run
But if you look at a lot of the high beta names in this market a lot of them have broken through their recent highs and
Rallied to their 1618 fib extensions. I'm not one for kind of radical price targets or you know
They're kind of I'm more of a step-by-step trader.
However, Tesla's 1618 Fib extension level does sit around $650.
And I'm not suggesting it's getting there anytime soon.
But if it were to follow kind of that pattern of high beta names rallying beyond the recent highs into their extension levels,
that is an area where it could potentially head to. Of course, a lot would have to happen between
now and then. And, you know, that's a 50% move from here, which again, just kind of keeping
a good head on our shoulders and not expecting something like that to happen overnight or even
quickly if we enter a pullback period in the markets but just something I've kind of kept an eye on and
the first step would be to just get a daily weekly close about 430 and that would kind of kick start
the next impulse move to the upside so it's another one I'm keeping on watch also really like the look of AMD it's been pretty constructive that
one has been struggling at 161 162 and that was a major major pivot about a
month month and a half ago and then it dropped and fell below and it's kind of
got this little rounded bottom into 161 again on the daily chart but it can't
kind of hold it and close above it so
it's struggling but I'm watching it for a bigger break just given how some of the peers have
recently done I do think if it can break through the 161 162 wall I do think it's got room to
retest the recent recent highs in that 175 to 185 range. So another one I've been watching.
So I kind of have multiple trading strategies, if you will.
I do like to trade breakouts, but at my core as a swing trader,
I do prefer to buy stocks in consolidation or at key support levels like ASTS,
like ASTS, which I shared here a few weeks ago at that $36 support level.
which I shared here a few weeks ago at that $36 support level.
I posted that reversal idea and took that swing with my members,
and that's rallied about 50% in two weeks, which is significant.
And if ASTS can hold that 52-54 area, it does have some more upside room.
But just all that to say is, you know, kind of depending on your trading style
and what you're looking at, we do have the breakout setups like Robinhood, for example, over that 126 area.
You have reversal setups like BM&R, which I just covered at that 50 to 52 zone.
You could see it kind of bounced into close, but that might be a bit of a short covering or relief bounce at the end of the day.
But one I'm keeping a close eye on to add back after trimming up above 60 recently.
So just a few stocks and ideas I'm keeping an eye on.
Reversal ideas and breakout ideas to monitor over the coming weeks.
Awesome stuff there.
Good sniping manual as usual for those looking to grab stuff at the right spot.
Circles are great with those entries, so it's good to pay attention to those technical setups.
Yeah, for my end, relatively flat day.
I ended the day down 0.012%, so pretty much flat day.
Portfolio was a little bit of a tale of two
cities today cool off in centris and a couple of my other names and then you had names like
nebius and tesla and dragonfly that continued to the upside um you you as well was was really hot
off the open cooled off a little bit into the close but um that name's just been getting a
relentless bid uh huntington and Robinhood closed
green as well. So a little bit of a split day for the portfolio, but I'm fine with that. I mean,
year-to-date returns still sitting at about 255% year-to-date. I'm very, very happy with that.
I did not think I'd be able to string together another 250% year this year, but they came for
my names in the last couple of weeks, and a lot them uh went to new highs including nebius and centrist and most of my highest weighted positions
so very comfortable with the names i own um there are two new names that i started researching
yesterday one of them i'm starting to like a lot so i may open a new position in that
towards the end of the week we'll see i haven't finished my research yet but a little bit more of a boring name but
priced very very cheaply and so i like that um i think uh the market here is just very very
standard cool off in my opinion look at the daily chart on spy i. I mean, we came into the 9 EMA today, like almost to the penny at the lows and defended it.
So, you know, could you see more downside?
Yeah, sure.
Maybe you bring us down to the 653, 654 area, down to the 21 EMA.
But, I mean, I wouldn't imagine a dramatic unwind, even if that happened.
As far as the rotative action goes today, there's sort of a snap in that rotative action.
You had XBI outperforming,
but you also had XLE and XLY outperforming.
They haven't been able to string together
too many days of consecutive outperformance.
Even if they can push into the end of the week,
I still think the setup broadly
on the major indexes looks fine to me.
There's no real areas or points of concern.
I will say maybe VIX looks like it's bottoming.
There are some signs of that,
but you'd need to see a little bit more momentum to the upside.
You'd probably need to see VIX string together
two or three green days for that to become a real issue.
But VIX is attempting to bottom down here,
which could mean there's some near-term volatility around the corner to be mindful of.
Still think IWM setup looks great technically.
Still think the Qs look just fine.
RK looks good still.
So to me, it just looks like a broadening market if I am being honest with what I'm seeing.
But obviously that can change.
I don't expect it to, but that can
change into the back half of the year if economic data changes or if the Fed outlook changes as
well. But I think we're pretty in the clear as far as most of the macro stuff goes for now.
There's not a whole lot of upcoming macro catalysts that could shake things up, if you will.
So I think the market's kind of in cruise control right now.
Even if it does feel like a lot of stuff is exhausted, I think that's pretty normal after the type of move we've had.
So you have to allow some consolidation on some of the leading names and allow them to get their moving averages to catch up and price to set up again.
So I really don't have a problem with anything that was read today.
In fact, if you look at the stuff that was read today,
you just pull up the daily charts, you kind of shrug your shoulders
and see that there's not too much to be concerned about.
I mean, if you really want to be chill,
I would pull up the weekly and monthly charts on a lot of those names and take a sigh
of relief. So, um, yeah, I like how the markets are acting, you know, I don't, I don't expect,
um, there to be any big hiccups in the next couple of weeks. As far as the broader market goes,
there was a big reports out this morning. Nebius got raised to two Oh six price target at Northland,
which is a new street. I lift got raised 30 at TD price target at northland which is a new street high lift got
raised 30 at td which i believe is tied for a new street high um uec had some great commentary after
their earnings stiefel upgraded them b of a a bunch of people came out goldman as well
um on that name due to capacity expansion i think that stock closed slightly red today but still has
a very very strong technical setup bloom energy got downgraded this morning by Jeffries.
They're basically saying the valuation is getting ridiculous. I actually agree with them. We used
to own that name earlier in the year. It's been a hell of a run. Not in it anymore, but Jeffries
out this morning downgrading BE to underperform, saying that the valuation is a little absurd at
140 PE. I would tend to agree
with that. They think the niche is interesting for fuel cells, but they think the valuation is
nonsensical. And so they're downgrading it with a 31 price target. I think that stock was at 11
or 12% today on that report. Micron got a bunch of upgrades as well. Amazon got a nice one from
Wells Fargo, but Mag seven were weak today broadly.
But the street's starting to pick up activity again now in these last couple of days on
the sell side. And so that's an incrementally good sign. Usually when that happens, you have
another area of catalytic support for the markets where individual stocks have reasons to go higher
as analysts upgrade them. So it's good to see the commentary picking back up post Fed meeting. And I imagine it'll probably
be pretty active as far as sell side goes over the next month or so. And that should help move
individual stocks higher. Obviously, iron also got a big upgrade today and that stock was up a lot as
well. So yeah,. Some game-changing
price target changes that moved stocks today
this week and
just a market to me that looks just fine
still. Nothing
to worry about as far as I'm concerned.
Is Emp here, by the way, or was it just Evan that was
here earlier? I'm back. I'm back now.
Oh, okay. Perfect. I don't know
what happened.
Yeah, I don't know He's MIA
Is he still out of town?
I have no idea
I was on a stream and he was like
I'll go handle stocks on Spaces
And then I look up and he's not here
Classic
He was here, then he was not here
Maybe that Intel
Apple news was just too much for him
He couldn't handle it Yeah, he was here. Maybe that Intel Apple news was just too much for him. He couldn't handle it.
Yeah, you ran away to buy more Intel.
Did everyone get a chance to speak?
Sorry, I'm just now.
Yeah, no, we went through the whole panel.
I mean, I don't know if there's any topics you want to touch on specifically.
I'm just gathering my thoughts here real fast.
I've been all over the place today.
I mean, here's a simple one.
I actually took a long intraday off of what was pretty standard.
We talk about this all the time.
Put your daily chart up there, stock talk.
Look at your 9 EMA. Look at SPY. Look at QQ talk. Look at your 9 EMA.
Look at SPY.
Look at QQQ.
Look at your 9 EMA.
Yeah, we were just talking about that.
Goodness, it's almost one of those things you almost have to try it.
I mean, I'm not going to stay in it or anything.
I was short down to that area.
I longed off of that area.
And then I didn't do anything really much in the back half but go through a bunch of charts and stuff it's been a pretty I mean the last four three
tests have been free money if you think of it that way like I mean nine the 90 last nine EMA tests
came down I mean what was this like the six low 650s and then rebounded all the way back up to
the high of the candle.
Same thing when we had that 645 test, closed way higher.
Same thing even again today, intraday height, closed higher.
I mean, yeah, it's been a very resilient market,
and just betting on it to go higher has obviously been a good bet.
Eventually, that won't be, but I mean, for now, dance while the music is playing.
The market wants to give you that bid continually, then take it.
I think it's tough to look at the indexes where we are now and say like,
yeah, there's a ton of amazing risk reward.
But I mean, you know, pull up the S&P 500, pull up a daily chart.
Like we're not insanely removed from the 200-day moving average.
Like the 200-day moving average of the SBO 500 is at $595.
We're sitting at $660.
Like, would a drop to $595 be brutal?
Yeah, but, like, we're not, you know, $300, $400 off the 200-day like we have been in moments. And if you zoom out, really zoom out, you can see that this market, when it's holding structure with organized moving averages, has been an uptrending market.
And for now, we're holding structure with organized moving averages.
And by organized, I mean, you know, there isn't any moving averages that need to rearrange themselves.
You have the 9 on top of the 21, on top of the 50, on top of the 100, on top of the 200, all stacked in perfect order with a relentless bid underneath them.
That's an uptrend, right?
That's a very obvious uptrend
that you don't need to be a genius to see. Now, when does it break? It breaks when you lose the
50 day and don't recover it, right? That would be a trend break here because you'd break below that
630 area and then have a real trend breaking event. You'd need buyers to step in at the 100
day and reverse it, right? But you go back to April, they didn't do that.
April, the daily chart broke down completely, right?
Where did the market find support?
It found support at the 100-week moving average.
Not at any of the daily moving averages.
It found support at the 100-week moving average back in April, and the market ripped back up.
And if you go back to last year, and for those that remember, there was a
subtle pullback from August to October of last year, from like the 450s to like the 390s, not
a huge pullback, but still a pullback. That pullback also caught itself at the 100-week
moving average. So you don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure these things out. What you
need to do is look at multi-time, basic multi-time frame analysis. You don't need anything pulled up besides moving averages, the price and the volume.
And you want to ask yourself, where has this market in moments of extreme panic found bids?
The answer is, at least for the better part of the last three years, the 100 week moving average
for the S&P 500. And so that's really, in my view, what you want to operate as is your maximum point
of risk for now, you know, prior to conditions changing. Obviously, if the economy falters or jobs change,
then you want to open up your risk parameters. But for now, with all things being equal in the
status quo, you want to look down to the 100 week moving average as a potential max point of risk
for the markets. Where is that sitting right now? 550. It's 100 bucks below, right? So in a really
unwinding event, you could see that area.
I don't think it's highly likely considering all of the concerns we've climbed in the last year and
a half. But if you really want to be a max risk guy and ask yourself what could happen in a worst
case scenario, that's what I think could happen, is a pullback to the 100-week moving average on
the S&P 500, which would lead to a 20 or 30 or 40,
maybe even 50% pullback on individual names. And if you're not prepared for that, and you're not prepared for that potentially to suddenly happen, which frankly could happen in four or five candles,
right? You look back at, I'm talking about four or five weekly candles. You look back at the
April correction, right? It was one, two, three, four, five, six, basically six weekly candles to the downside.
And then a massive reversal off that 480 level.
And we saw 550 within three weeks.
So I don't think you have to be any more complicated than that.
Right now, you look at the market and you say, this is a very, very clear uptrend on
all timeframes.
Moving averages are organized on all timeframes and price is trending up with a constant bid. That's a bull market.
Now, when it breaks down, you start marking those levels below. You start marking that 50 day,
you start marking that a hundred week and you start asking yourself, okay, am I going to get
potentially high risk reward entries on my favorite names as the market pulls back into those
spots it's really all you need to do you know a lot of people want to sit around wondering if
they should predict what's going to happen to the market they want to speculate and wonder and
write novels and write sub stack stories on what might happen that stuff's cool if you like like
entertainment i guess or you know you could go watch Wolf Wall Street instead,
in my opinion.
It's basically the same thing.
What these guys are doing is attempting to be right.
They're not attempting to make money.
And some of you sometimes have to decide
what's more important to you.
Is it more important to be right on Twitter
or to have called for a market crash
and then point to everyone and be like, look, crash. Or is it more important to you is it more important to be right on twitter or to have called for a market crash and then point to everyone and be like look crash or is it more important to you to make money
while the market is uptrending to me i much prefer the latter i like being right it's cool you know
yeah i like everybody else celebrate when i am right uh but the game's about making money and
if you want to make money the what you the thing to do over the last two years
has been to just listen to this obvious uptrend
in the markets and to buy it and to ride it.
And frankly, I think that remains the thing to do
until the markets tell you otherwise.
You should never listen to me or anyone else
what they think about the markets. You should listen to the price, what the they think about the markets you should listen to the price what
the price thinks about the markets because that is smarter than all of us and it'll tell you
how to feel about market conditions at any given time as opposed to wondering how you should feel
and wondering what the risk levels are the market will tell you how it feels about risk it'll tell
you through the pricing of vix it'll tell you the pricing of VIX. It'll tell you the pricing of the indexes. It'll tell you the
pricing of market leading momentum stocks. That's how the market communicates its feeling about risk.
It doesn't communicate its feeling about risk through CNBC headlines or rants from like
perma bears. That's not how the market decides risk. The market decides risk based on
the accumulation of bids and asks that lead to a resulting price. That's it. That's all that the
market is. It's a bunch of bids, a bunch of asks. They lead to a resulting price. That resulting
price communicates something to the investor. I was going to say, sometimes you can literally
simplify it down because people ask this question all the time somebody asked on on one of our streams earlier they were like well why is you know the price keep going up on this
i like i don't know more buyers and sellers if more people are willing to buy than sell exactly
exactly that's always a great answer you know if you were wondering like why is the stock up today
it was up six days in a row why is it up again because there's still buyers that's it you know you don't need to sit around and wonder like is there a good
reason why the stock is up in fact i get that question all the time from our members right
like stocks up no one asks a question the stock goes down people like why is the stock down and
it's funny because you don't you shouldn't ever need to ask those questions what you should ask
yourself is what is price telling me right you shouldn't ever need to ask those questions. What you should ask yourself is what is price telling me? Right. You shouldn't ask yourself like, what do I think? Just what is
price telling me about this? Right. Your thesis on the stock initially obviously depends on what
you think, but your ability to manage that position effectively, hold it for a long enough time,
hold it through market cycles. That is entirely dictated by price. No one has enough
conviction in a vacuum to hold things through 50% drawdowns, right? But if you know the stocks well,
and you know the industries well, and you know how to read price, then you can hold through
moments like that, because you understand what's happening on the higher timeframes.
And you understand that, okay, yeah, the stock is breaking down on the daily. Yes,
it's come
off a lot from the highs but you know the monthly and the weekly charts are still showing me a very
clear picture of accumulation and technical structure i i should not be a seller here
even though the short-term traders and the you know scalpers are going to be selling the stock
here as it breaks down i should not be selling the stock here because it's finding support at the 21 week EMA or whatever, you know, like that level of price awareness, I should say,
I don't even call it price analysis because it is not difficult, but that level of price awareness
is what allows you to manage positions effectively and hold them for the right periods of time and
know when to get out of them.
You know, that's another thing that's hard, right?
Like people hear me advocating all the time for this, like, you know, hold market leaders,
buy them, build baskets.
And I do advocate for that.
But there's nuance to it, right?
Like there are moments also in which you shouldn't hold certain names if they are obviously
and visibly breaking down.
You know, when weekly charts start breaking down, I start asking myself
serious questions about positions. When monthly charts start breaking down, I really come face
to face with my conviction. I review the thesis. I'm like, what was I wrong about? Because price
is telling me I'm wrong. Right. And none of people acknowledge this. They're like, price is telling
them they're wrong. And they're like, no, no. Like, I know something the market doesn't.
Like, if you're four or five weeks into the trade and you still feel that way,
like you're probably wrong. You might be right sometimes, but you're probably wrong.
Like, you know, if you were to take that scenario 10 times, eight of those times,
price is right and you're wrong. And there's going to be the occasional one where you defy market pricing and you make
some crazy call and, you know, you're right.
And you're like, look, look, I fucking knew the market was wrong.
Like my contrarian view worked like I'm going to keep doing this.
And, you know, with enough sample size, you realize it's a silly thing to do to fight
the trend.
But yeah, there's going to be exceptions to that.
Yeah, there's going to be instances where fading the market or being a contrarian works. But
broadly speaking, you should listen to what the price is telling you and trying to communicate
to you because the market's always trying to send a message through price. It's not just like
stock goes up, stock goes down. There's a message being sent through price. And if you're if you
want to be a very, very sophisticated position manager, you have to be able to read those messages and integrate that price messaging with the rest of your thesis.
The fundamental part of your thesis, the technical part of your thesis, those have to be reflected onto the price.
You can't ignore the price and say, well, yeah, I know the stock's downtrending and it's six quarters of underperformance, but I like the stock.
You better have a damn good reason
for liking the stock in that scenario. Because otherwise, you may just sit on a consolidating
or underperforming asset for six months. And then you might look back and say, well, I don't care.
I'm an investor. I don't care. It moved now. I was only in it for a seven-month consolidation.
it for a seven-month consolidation really what could you have done with your capital in the
Really? What could you have done with your capital in the meantime?
meantime like where could that capital have been allocated right yeah it's it's cool to say like
i was having a debate about this with uh somebody on twitter like two days ago about the nuclear
stocks and i was talking about how like our entries on energy fuels and centris were perfectly timed
right like we entered energy fuels like a month ago stock doubled we entered centris in may stock doubled like in three weeks i was just talking about how our entries were good
and somebody was like well you know the nuclear community has been talking about these stocks for
years and i was like so like being early being early isn't a flex
like it's being early is not a flex. I'm going to communicate that to everybody.
Being on time is a flex. Being in a stock five years before it moves and then being like,
look, I told you guys, oh, congratulations, your money did nothing for five years.
You know, that's not a flex. Not a flex to have seen something before
the market and waited three years for the market to realize it. You know, what matters much more
is positioning, timely positioning. When you buy stocks and they peel deep into a cost basis
advantage immediately, that's the type of position management that's irreplicable because you cannot
replicate deep in the money cost basis on high conviction positions is irreplicable.
The ability of ease it gives you for portfolio management is insane. It's magnitudes different
than like being the guy that's constantly buying new things at the margin. You know,
that your back is up against price at
all times. It's like a world of difference between those two ways of approaching the market. So
timing is what matters. Being first is not what matters. If you're first and on time,
yeah, that's a flex. If you're first, no one cares, you know, but being first on time and on time is what matters.
That's when you have really, really smart technical entries that are also driven on the flip side by some sort of catalyst or thematic event because you timed your entry with that, which is a smart thing to do.
That's what I do.
And then you have immediate bids under the stock with a good entry at a technically logical place.
And like the position management from there becomes simpleton work.
You know, you can trim whenever you want.
You can add to the position on pullbacks.
You have a deep cost basis advantage.
Your position's pretty much always going to be in the green for the duration of that swing or investment.
Like you cannot replicate that. You cannot replicate the advantages that gives you
as an investor and trader and the ability that gives you
to get in and out of positions without any sort of stress
or need to chase.
So yeah, you need to know all those things.
You need to think about the markets more simply,
most of you do.
Stock talk question for you, are you still a magnet i'm not i'm not no yeah man that thing
it's just so weak it's pissing me off it hasn't been weak lately i haven't looked at it in a while
we had a freaking huge volume green day on friday and then the next three sessions just horrible
i mean i keep going in and out of this name. I saw some updates on the
yesterday was the first day
of the Google AdTech Antitrust
trial remedies.
And it sounds like Google's getting their
ass kicked in court. So it makes me
want to just, I don't
know, maybe
try to hold on to this thing, but it is
testing. The daily's ugly,
but I don't i don't mind
the weekly and the monthly yeah exactly i agree with you exactly like i'm trying and today's like
yeah we we broke below the 50 ema which is not great uh it's been holding support there
but the volume today was pretty low i'm wondering if we get any sort of undercut in rally because
that friday green volume was not to ignored, but we did fade that pretty hard.
Yeah, the volume profile has been a little tricky in the last couple of weeks because there's been some distribution candles as well.
What I would say is that I don't think this is the best name to read off the moving averages because even if you look at the higher time frames, you look at weekly and monthly like this thing hasn't really respected the moving averages right like look at look at it on the
monthly look at the 50 month and the 20 month and the 100 month like this thing has just ignored
them prices sort of bounced around that so this name's gonna be tricky to like build you know
because you're not gonna find like easy ad spots on this thing.
Cause I mean, I, even on the daily,
I can't see a lot of fidelity to the moving averages.
I think it's a great name. You know,
I agree with you on the fact that it's a solid name.
It's just going to be tricky to build into this.
And it's also going to be tricky to manage risk on this name because you're
going to have a lot of fake outs.
Like I wouldn't be surprised in a moment of weakness if this thing broke down on the
weekly too, and then pump faked out of it.
Like look at the action in what is this date?
Is this okay?
Well, that's April.
So that doesn't count.
But even before that, if you look at last year in also in april april 24 you'll see it
tucked its head under the 20 week and the 50 week and consolidated underneath that area for like
three weeks in a row and then ripped to the upside like that's not if i was looking at that
technically that wouldn't have been a buy to me because, like, it was below all the weekly moving averages and had, frankly, no visible areas of support.
But then the stock turned around in reverse.
It's done that, like, four or five times.
So, yeah, this is going to be a tricky name.
You know, you're going to have to, you're going to probably have to rely more on your fundamental conviction.
I know you know the name well, but you're probably going to have to rely more on your fundamental conviction with this name to manage it because it's going to be tough to manage technically.
No, exactly. And I think maybe some of this negative sentiment around the stock has been
because Google got off with a fine and a slap on the wrist on the search antitrust trial.
But I'm reading, again, like you said, fundamental stuff like the Google stuff on the upside to a
name like this is tremendous and significant.
And, you know, some of the experts that are commenting on this are basically saying that this trial is not something that they're going to be able to get out of as easily as this first one.
But man, who the hell knows?
Yeah, that type of stuff always makes it tricky for me. I like to own stocks that respect their moving averages because it gives me an easier ability to manage risk when they are weak.
As you know, there's days where every stock is weak, no matter how strong it is.
Every stock has red days.
And on those red days, I like to be able to look at an individual name and be like, okay, everything's gravy.
On all timeframes,
the stock looks fine. And it's tough to do that with stocks that don't respect moving averages,
because they will constantly fake you out. They'll constantly make you believe their breakdown is
coming and then whipsaw and turn around. And I personally, for my style, it's a nightmare to
manage stocks like that. It's part of the reason why I got out of Magnet. Like, I mean, it's a nightmare to manage stocks like that it's part of the reason why i got out of magnite like i mean it was a profitable trade for me i traded three times in two years and all
of them were profitable trades so i'm not mad at the stock or anything but i had to get out because
on moments of weakness i was just like dude i don't know what to do with this thing
like i didn't know whether to sell it or add to it because it just it the price i'm on the same
i'm on the same page as you, trust me.
I don't know what to do with this thing.
I love the name, but it's just pisses me off the way it trades, man.
I mean, you know it well, bro, you know it well.
Like, so because you know it well, there's an argument that, you know,
if, if the story hasn't changed for you,
there's an argument to hold it because of how well you know it.
It's easy. As you know, it's easier to manage stuff that you know well.
Yeah. It's just when it violates something like the 50 ema i'm looking at it right now on the daily it's like it's touched it one two three four times and today
was the first day it broke below it like that kind of doesn't know yeah yeah i mean it's it's
tough that that's gonna be i wish i could give you a better technical view on that's going to be a tough one to manage technically because there's just not a lot of fidelity
to the moving averages on any of the time frames.
And that makes it hard, hard to manage.
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, it's respective to that 50 EMA.
Somebody pointed that out to me.
And then I looked at the chart and I'm like, wow, it doesn't give a shit about the 50 SMA.
It literally breaks the world all the time.
But the 50 EMA, it's literally, every time it's wicked below it and held it.
Today was the first day it closed below it.
So that's not great.
Yeah, I'm actually seeing that.
The 50 EMA is a pretty good area of respect.
I mean, I wouldn't say it's worked all the time.
But yeah, pretty good general area.
Pretty good general area to look at on the daily.
On Magna? Yeah, and then today is basically the first time it closed below it like yeah i think you're just stuck between you the high that it made back in february it's like consolidating
above that but the all the lows back in 2021 it's just consolidating it's like stuck in between this
kind of back and forth right now. It looks healthy though, overall.
It doesn't look too bad. It's just frustrating stock to hold.
I mean, Amazon has a very similar look to this right now. We're zoomed in. Amazon looks
like it wants to back test the 200 day. It came through the 50-day hard yesterday and got a little bit of continuation now, but
I don't think it's in trouble. It's just one of those things where it's like
short-term doesn't look great, but when you zoom out and look left, you're like,
okay, where do I get in? I'm curious how you, logical, how you kind of maneuver
in a chart that looks like magnitesites because I see Amazon looking kind of similar in
certain ways. Obviously, you look left, it's different over that
direction. But yeah, when you look at this, do you do you say,
okay, well, it's below the 50 day, but I see just a lot of
consolidation above a previous high back in February.
Yeah, I gotta be honest.
I'm seriously stuck on this one. I don't
know what to do with it. I know the
stock is good, but it's almost like
here's the thing.
Today's volume was quite low.
I feel like we got three days of selling
and it was exhaustion. If we make a
new low tomorrow, I probably have to cut the
stock. I'm just going to keep it that simple.
If it can't under like, undercut and, like, hold this level
and then hopefully reclaim,
then it's probably going to have to be something.
Because, you know, technicals are a good way of just,
one, making sure that a position doesn't go too bad on you,
and two, like, in case, like,
something is not sticking with your fundamental thesis and the price action is telling you that so I you know I think when I looked when
I listened to their last earnings call by the way excellent excellent quarter like crushing their
main competitor um just firing on all cylinders like I listened to the report and I doubled my
position size I was like yeah that was a great report. They sound freaking confident.
They're suing Google on a civil lawsuit.
They have merits on that lawsuit.
They probably win hundreds of millions
of dollars, not more.
And then you have like this
ad tech antitrust trial
remedies. I mean, that
can be very significant to this thing.
And none of that is priced in for this stock.
So it's like... They're ad tech, right? What the hell is this price in? is priced in for this stock. So it's like...
They're ad tech, right?
What the hell is this price in?
Yeah, they're ad tech.
So basically, they've been competing with Google,
who leads that space.
And Google's been bullying them.
And it was found that they were competing illegally.
So they're going to lose that case.
They already basically lost it.
Now they're figuring out what's the remedies.
And if they make Google divest a portion of their business,
then this thing is going to go way, way higher.
So I'm trying my best to be patient,
but I also have to respect my rules.
So I'm kind of like being,
I'm playing like tug of war between,
you know, fundamentals and technicals right now.
And I just don't know, like I'm having a great year.
I don't need to have like a bomb in my portfolio either.
So I want to ask you a kind of follow-up question. So that ad tech sector, so
the trade desk, I've been asked about the chart a lot. I'm not super keen in the ad tech space in
general. What's the general story around ad tech? And then do you have any thoughts
around the trade desk? Because this one, you talk about, you know, just getting slaughtered,
making a little comeback, a 200-day, just absolutely slapping it down. And you're sitting
at a double bottom that it's holding for now. So like I can see some technical, it's kind of
back and forth between a couple levels on a chart, but the narrative just seems really bad.
What's going on with AdTech and any thoughts with TradeDesk?
Yeah, so just so, okay, let me take it to the basics.
AdTech is about, it's a technology around serving ads.
So these companies work with either advertisers or publishers, people who post the advertisements to their websites.
So you think about Twitter, that's a publisher.
You think about you go on Yahoo Finance and you're reading an article, you see ads.
So one side is the publisher.
That's considered the supply side of the ad market.
That's who Pubmatic and Magnite, they're working with, as well as Google. Google basically owns that entire space, which is why names like Magnite and Pubmatic have been basically crapped on.
Nobody cares about these names because Google just owns the entire space.
On the other side is Trade Desk.
Trade Desk is the leading demand side.
So they work with the advertisers to buy ad space. So, you know,
one side is representing the buyer of ads, like, like companies that want to advertise their
products. And the other side is selling the ad space to these advertisers. So basically think
about it as like, you know, Magni, Trade Desk, these guys are just like brokering the transaction.
They're representing the buyers and sellers. That's's happening for that um on the supply side these stocks have been extremely cheap and they're
tiny market caps because they're competing with google who recently was found that google has
been competing anti-competitively or illegally so that's why these stocks have been gone nowhere
because you don't want to be operating on the side where Google's
just bullying you every day. The trade desk hasn't had that issue because they work directly with
these advertisers and get their budgets and help them allocate it and blah, blah, blah.
So the trade desk has always traded a premium multiple. I actually think that the trade desk
business is good. And the issue with the trade desk stock has been that it's been far too expensive
on a valuation. Like the multiple is like 100 times EBIT been that it's been far too expensive on a valuation.
Like the multiples like 100 times EBITDA.
It's like ridiculous.
So like the numbers that they're putting up are fair, reasonable, good.
The valuation does not justify those numbers.
So that's what happens to the stock.
All you're seeing is the valuation got compressed.
There's nothing wrong with the stock.
There's no issues.
It's just an expensive
stock. And it's seeing a re-rating now back to where it should be because it's just turning out
to be like any other stock. Now, the reason why it's had a premium for so many years is that
they've really had no competition. But now you're having like these bigger players entering that space. Like you've heard of Amazon DSP, demand-sized platform.
That is now competing with Trade Desk.
And there's like other names.
So like basically what happens if, you know, this space becomes more competitive,
like it's been on the supply side for like Magnite and such.
And so in that antitrust trial that's going on for Google,
there were no anti-competitive measures on the demand side, only the supply side.
So the remedies are only going to be on the supply side.
So it's only going to help Magnite, Pubmatic, etc.
I think Pubmatic's a pretty crap business after talking and following it for so long, I can say that.
Magnite, definitely a very good business.
But yeah, so that's kind of where we're
at it's like the trade that's like do i want to long it no because it's still probably somewhat
expensive it's still probably like i don't think it's undervalued you know what i mean just because
the stock is down i mean does that mean that it can't go 50 and go back to 60 bucks maybe
but like not really a business i've ever cared to own i'd rather own right now you get to own maybe
like magnite that is in a much better situation because their landscape is about to get much more
favorable to magnite you know the trade desk situation is getting worse magnite situation
is getting better so yeah i mean if i was to pick a player it's going to be magnite for sure
um but yeah that about
covers it is you know these names are fine uh there's always going to be a need so i think
they're going to continue to do well and it's going to be better i think like the the doj has
been making a case like a couple cases right now i was reading this long thread of like day one of
these remedy trials and a couple points that they made was one, Google's own employees, there's like language
or emails that they've brought up where their own employees said it is feasible for them to divest
their like ad tech function. So that's already points against Google right there. I've been
reading that Google's been just trying to use all this jargon to try to like throw people off,
but like the judge seems very strict and doesn't seem like they're taking their bs um at least from the
comments that I've read and then um the uh DOJ made other points basically bringing on like these
expert witnesses and which they're testifying and saying that publishers the people who are
selling the ad space would make up a lot would make a lot more
money so you'd get a much better distribution of the the money that's circulating in the ad economy
to all the players instead of google just sucking up all that money so right now yeah that's what's
been happening is google has been acting illegally they've been making way too many profits if the
they've been making way too many profits if the uh doj's remedies are to they propose to break
oh they are already proposing it but if their judge rules that they should break up the ad
tech platform then um a lot of players will benefit publishers you know supply side platforms
like magnite pubmatic they'll benefit a lot because they'll get a bigger chunk of the pie
They'll benefit a lot because they'll get a bigger chunk of the pie.
And Google's not going to just be hogging up all the best transactions in the space.
Now those are going to be more fairly distributed.
So a lot of people win if Google goes down, which is why I think that it's very possible
and very likely, actually, that Google will get hit and others will benefit, which is
like making me really like it's testing my
patience to hold the stock when it's doing whatever it's doing it just seems like you know if if they
rule once this trial is over and the verdict is that google needs to um divest i mean magnite
should probably go up 50 60 that day that's what i would say
should probably go up 50 60 percent that day that's what i would say
the bears are worth nine billion what the hell are we talking about okay there was i was going
there next i appreciate you logical did you see that no i didn't see whatever the nfl is worth
any team is worth anything sorry it's been a wild day.
But yeah, it's 2.35% of the Bears
was just sold at an $8.9 billion valuation.
It is Chicago.
You may not be able to own a team,
but you can own Genius Sports.
Wasn't it, like, not too long ago,
Miami or somebody started allowing
some private investment?
Yeah, there was a ruling recently that they could sell off 10% of the team to private equity, Wasn't it like not too long ago is Miami or somebody started allowing some private investment. Yeah.
There was a ruling recently that they could sell off the 10% of the team to
private equity.
So they've all been basically selling 10% of the team to private equity.
Give or take.
That's how that's been going.
But yeah,
I don't know.
Stock talk has come up here and said that Amazon should buy them.
Amazon's been a struggle.
I've seen that.
Well, maybe it fits the, it fits how the stock's been doing yeah i know amazon is amazon has underperformed everything in my
else in my portfolio by so much the amazon fell
from an over 10 percent weighting in my portfolio to a 5 percent weighting
that's how much amazon has underperformed the rest of my portfolio
i didn't do anything to it i didn't do anything to it. I didn't sell anything. I didn't, I didn't touch it.
It just underperformed the rest of my stocks by so much that it's now like a 5% weighting
or 10% weighting. So that tells you what Amazon's done, AKA nothing. Um,
I still think it's, it is a, in my opinion, the highest quality company in the world.
The stock hasn't
performed largely thank you jeffrey bezos selling billions of stock every chance he gets especially
on breakouts i don't know what's wrong with him he needs to hire a technical analyst but um
i love is it a coincidence that my two co-hosts up here are the only two Mag 7 stocks that have not made all time?
I'm close.
But listen, I'm not a Mag 7 guy, though, you know?
I'm a mid-cap guy.
Like, most of my money's a mid-cap guy.
Always an excuse.
Always an excuse.
Always an excuse.
I brought Lyft to the table, guys.
I wish I was a large-cap guy, but I'm just not.
And he takes it from me.
Now, Stock Talk told me to double down on Lyft, and it's doing great today.
I did tell you that.
It's doing fantastic.
I will give you that.
Full credit.
You did not start the Lyft conversation.
I liked it first, though.
So it's clearly my stuff.
That's fine with me.
You can say you liked it first.
That's okay.
All right.
I'm just glad we admit it.
But yeah, Stock Talk texted me at one point.
He's like, I don't know what he said,
but it's basically double down lift.
That was a while ago, though.
Let's see. I bought it.
It was...
Oh, wrong account.
That's why I wasn't loading.
Average cost, I think when you said it was $18.65.
I'm up 19% on commons on it.
Okay, well, I bought it $13.15 15 so maybe I told you a little later than that but this guy was like all right I'm up time to tell Evan
get the dumb money in you're in the discord you should see the alerts as they go out
get in there be more attentive were you paying attention Evanan that's what i'm gonna start saying i'm gonna start nah dude i'm being i'm being overwhelmed at you instead of at twitter like i normally do
but lyft has been no lyft has been amazing and honestly the i could have sold it um but i frankly
still think it's mispriced i mean it's trading at 10 times free cashflow for 26 with double digit
growth. Like when I bought it, it was trading at five times free cashflow. The stocks doubled,
right? In the months since we got in, or almost doubled, but it's still cheap. Like it's still
cheap relative to Uber. It is. And they're growing fast. And now they have major autonomous
partnerships. It's like, you know, it's not going to become Uber. It is. And they're growing fast. And now they have major autonomous partnerships.
It's like, you know, it's not going to become a core position for me.
I'm going to be clear about that.
But it is a big weighting in my portfolio after this run.
It's like almost a 10% weighting in my portfolio after this run.
Started off as like a five, I think.
I think I opened it at a four and a half or five.
And stock doubled, obviously.
So I have leverage on that position as well, which helped.
I have calls on it.
So that helped escalate the waiting.
But I liked the Lyft story a lot.
I thought it was one of those names, again, that was just too cheap, right?
Trading at one-time sales, five-times free cash flow, growing double digits didn't make sense.
There's a couple names like that that I own.
And, you know, I think most of them will be re-rated.
You know, Amcor, Materion.
These names are trading.
PM&R.
Yeah, well, PM&R doesn't have sales, but yeah.
You should buy some.
I think now's a decent time.
I bought some today.
I like the chart.
I just don't have any crypto exposure right now on an equity basis.
All right, stop what you're doing.
This is what you're going to write in the chat.
You can put this in your discord chat
this is not something I believe in
Evan forced my hand
.01% in BMNR
one share
it could be too much
stock talk is a big game
have you heard this guy on this basis
he's been saying this for a year
stock talk I want you to buy 10,000 shares
right now
no I'm kidding I'm kidding on that Paying this for a year. Stock talk, I want you to buy 10,000 shares right now.
No, I'm kidding. 10,000 shares?
Yeah, I'm kidding on that, but sometimes you go big.
I mean, if you want to, but not one share.
You're getting at least 50.
Stock talk, talk's a big game.
If you want me to buy one share for the culture,
it won't even make my portfolio update.
No, I want you to buy 100.
Buy 1,000.
Don't give into that peer pressure, StockSock.
Maybe.
Give into the peer pressure a little.
Buy 100 chairs.
Tell me, what's the revenue of BM&R?
What are their sales?
They trade at infinite time sales.
What are their earnings?
If they started to turn staking on at this point.
I really do believe this.
I do think Evan would think BMNR was a shitco meme stock if Tom Lee wasn't behind it.
I really do believe that.
1,000%.
I think it's just that Evan really likes Tom Lee.
And so Tom Lee's not a treasury now.
And so now Evan likes BMNR.
But I think if BMNR was run by anyone else, I think Evan would be a hero saying,
guys, why are we talking about this shitco?
That's what he would be saying.
1000, thank you. I'm glad somebody finally said it.
It's not the most wrong thing in the world, but also...
I bet my bottom dollar that you would react like that if it was not Tom Lee.
I will say, i have owned ethereum
i have owned like the problem is i have it in just weird because ethereum's weird so i have
been like hard wallets off and other stuff so it's like not a part of my portfolio necessarily but
i think it's like 10 of my portfolio ethereum for this whole time and then this guy comes in
on the same stock that i like uh and tells me why he's slightly better than it all right sold I'm all in I
watched his interview with Amit though and I watched his other interview and
his argument is essentially you should buy a Treasury company instead of the
asset because we can increase the amount of asset per share.
That's what he said.
Right?
That doesn't make sense to me.
Yeah, okay.
I was going to say...
Because in order to get the money to buy more of the assets,
you have to dilute the shares.
I think what the game is is because they're diluting an evaluation
that is higher than the underlying eat that they have
That you know when all is said and done you'll have more aetherium per share. I love to see the math on that
Yeah, give it a try have fun
No, I just I can't follow the math on it
I would love for somebody to explain it to me because I can I mean it was the same with micro strategy like I just don't
somebody to explain it to me because I can I mean it was the same with micro
strategy like I just don't like I don't see where they levered up I'm not saying
you can't yeah yeah that's a good point so I'm not saying that money can't be
made there and obviously there's excitement there but I just I don't see
the number side of it yeah I don't I don't get it like and no one could ever
make me get it like no one could ever convince me to make a Treasury company
core position I don't care if it goes up 10,000%. Like I didn't own it. I didn't own MSDR at 10X. I don't care.
My portfolio was still up, you know, multiple hundred percent in all of those years. I don't,
I don't, I don't care when I miss stuff, but this is what I'll say. Can the stock go up? Of course,
it has already gone up a lot. People have already made a lot of money on it. The chart actually
looks fucking amazing. I said this last time, Evan brought it up. The chart looks amazing on all time frames.
It's probably going higher.
But stepping back from the technical view, the thesis is this.
I'm bullish on Ethereum.
So I'm going to start a treasury company that acquires Ethereum.
My argument to investors is going to be, you should buy the treasury company instead of the asset because we can acquire more Ethereum per share faster than the asset can go up.
In order to do that, you need money.
You don't have a revenue producing business.
So you need to dilute the stock in order to get the money to buy the asset that's going up and to buy it while it's going up. All of this works when the asset
is going up. It ceases to work when the asset is going down. That is my problem with all these
treasury companies. And again, I'm not saying you can't make money. You can make a lot of money.
MSDR is 10x. Many of these other treasury companies have 20 or 30x. Go trade them to
your heart's desire.
Do not let me deter you from trading or even investing in these things if that floats your boat.
I'm just saying, to me personally, I have not heard anyone.
I've heard a lot of smart people talk about this.
Evan's a smart guy.
He's tried to explain to me.
I listened to Tom Lee's podcast with Amit.
I listened to the whole thing.
It did not make sense to me.
I'm not an idiot.
People can call me a lot of things.
I know I'm not an idiot. I watched that podcast a lot of things. I know I'm not an idiot.
I watched that podcast front to back.
I watched Tom Lee's other interview.
I do not get the concept.
The idea that you can acquire more of X crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum, whatever, per share than
the asset can provide you in returns only exists to me in a scenario where millions of people buy into the idea that the
asset can go up more than the underlying. Like, did MSTR provide some sort of invaluable service
to investors? Depending on the investor you talk to, some may believe that they did. But in reality,
they did not. In reality, what they did was created a vehicle that had a higher beta relative to the underlying.
And as a consequence of it being more volatile, more people wanted to own it.
Not because of the strategy.
People will say that.
But they wanted to own it because it was more volatile.
Because the percentage moves were higher.
Right?
So, like, I just don't get it i don't get what the long-term sustainability of the strategy
is especially if the asset cools off for two years like what are you gonna do you're gonna
keep buying it and then if you do keep buying it what happens if it enters a year-long bear
here's the thing here's the thing yeah it's a lever play on ethereum which means what we are
in playing it fine great okay which means that would do good in good times,
bad in bad times.
Where does the leverage come from if they're just buying
Ethereum? I don't understand where the leverage
comes from.
I don't know if leverage or higher
beta is the more word.
Yeah, you could stake it and make
a little bit of money from it. They're not staking it
yet, but the fact that you can do this, that
dilution game and acquire more Ethereum
at a price that is,
you are doing it for like,
you know, for every $1 you're raising,
you're getting like $1.3 worth of Ethereum.
What's the difference between me taking out $1,000 of margin
and just adding leverage to my own Ethereum position?
There's a level that you,
first of all, there's this kind of being able to get to the 5% mark.
You know, you're never going to be able to get to that point.
So there's, you know, only so much to that game.
Really being able to get a seed.
Hold on, what's the significance of owning 5%?
So with Bitcoin, it's very widely distributed.
So there are changes don't really happen on the Ethereum network.
A lot of changes do happen.
And there comes a certain point where you actually get a vote
on kind of like everyone gets a vote but kind of more of a seat at the table on that oh okay so
influence over the asset okay okay i didn't know that yeah yeah yeah ethereum's a little bit is
more centralized okay okay yeah so i'm a newbie with all this stuff so i'm really deferring you
on that but i'm trying to understand here so the leverage comes from where well i know you said that that might not be the right term but the magnification the higher
beta it's listen it's because people believe in tom lee because his ability to go in and raise
money and yeah so it's more here's the thing is yes is he can raise one he can raise one dollar
and buy 1.55 worth of Ethereum.
It's kind of what's happening.
Yes, but it's premium for the sake of premium
because Tom Lee is a celebrity investing figure,
kind of like Elon Musk or like, you know, all these.
But that water has to find its level at some point, though,
because if you're diluting, I mean, if you're doing,
like you just said, $1 for 50 cents or whatever,
$1 for $1.50, I mean, somebody you're doing, like you just said, $1 for 50 cents or whatever, $1 for $1.50,
it means somebody's getting screwed.
If it's people already holding it above the level, like somebody's getting screwed in that.
If I'm an investor and I'm like, okay, if I buy into the idea that
the company can acquire more Ethereum per share and therefore I can get more leverage
into Ethereum for my dollars, if I buy into that idea that idea like shouldn't the mnav be trading below one
because it doesn't i was reading the comments like when when when the mnav is when the mnav is
above one are you not counteracting that promise implicitly because you're saying you're actually
paying me a premium to own the stock not the opposite the argument he's making is that you buy my stock you get more leverage per dollar not less
if you if the stock's trading at 1.6 xm nav that means that you're paying a point at 0.6 x premium
to the actual amount of ethereum controlled per share right why would you pay that if the whole point is to get more leverage per dollar?
You're getting less leverage per dollar.
You're only getting leverage in the sense
that the stock is more volatile than the underlying asset.
That is where the leverage is coming from.
It's not because of the strategy.
It's because the stock is thinner than the asset.
Yeah, I'm not saying leverage.
That's why I think higher beta on the stock.
I'm not using the term leverage strictly
here either what i'm trying to say is that like the argument tom himself makes is that you should
buy this instead of ethereum because we can make the ethereum per share go up continually at a much
more rapid pace you know when the lady i I forgot who it was, it was somebody else. It was after the, I'm an interview lady who asked him, she was like, um, Oh yeah, well, BMNR has gone up,
you know, whatever it was since IPO versus Ethereum, which has only gone up 50%. So
big BMNR is 10 X Ethereum's return, but that wasn't a product of them acquiring
10 X the Ethereum. That was a product of people bidding the stock up ferociously,
right? Like, it was a product of speculators. So what I'm saying is, it's not the strategy,
it's not the Treasury strategy that is producing the returns on the stock. It is the speculators
that are producing the return on the stock. And when the stock goes down, those speculators will
also disappear. That's what I'm saying.
It's like when risk, when the markets go risk off, people aren't going to be willy-nilly paying 1.5x NAV to own an asset.
They will not.
But do you think it falls below 1 NAV?
I think all the treasury companies crash in a crypto bear market, yeah.
Like crash, in my opinion.
But do you, no, no, the question is, is do you think they fall below net?
Yes.
Yes.
I don't, look, I don't think, yeah.
I think a lot of them would.
I think that that's why I am sitting in one of the best ones.
And you may be, I don't know the industry well enough to make sense.
And the problem is also that with Sailor specifically and stuff and debt and covenants and takeout prices and stuff like that.
And Tom Lee, they did a, this last fundraising deal had a conversion note
or something like that.
But still, like, I really do like that there's no debt on this one really.
Cause that kind of creates a little bit more of that downside risk.
But to me, okay, fine.
You have to believe in the direction of Ethereum.
If you sit there and believe that Ethereum
is going to double to 4x
in five years,
fine, a year, two years
of underperformance, and then fine,
your 100 shares, I'll get you to buy
1,000 then, and then we'll
see you at some crazy point in the future.
But I get what you're saying.
Of course, if Ethereum doubles, you're going to make 20x on that thing.
But here's my question.
What does the math look like?
And this is what I also need to grab my head around is if it takes five years, if there's two years of a bear market,
I'm okay to have a bigger drawdown if we then come back when we end up at that 2x point is higher.
So as long as my beta is in on both sides, I'm good.
As long as this isn't one of those 2x decay and I'm losing that up forever.
But I'm good to sit in it for a little bit.
Yeah, for me, I...
I believe the theorem's going.
I think...
47.43 is a new cost basis, someone asked.
I think these treasury companies would be more attractive to me if they purported to function as crypto banks.
That would be more attractive to me.
I think that's where they're going.
I think, so right now you're just betting on future price movement, hopefully on this, with maybe some of the debt.
And you're a bet on the future price of Ethereum or on this with maybe some of the debt. And you're a
bet on the future price of Ethereum or Bitcoin or whatever the treasury is for. But I do think
these treasuries are going to end up being just like lenders at some point. Yeah, I mean, I think
two things will need to happen for that to be viable. First of all, crypto will have to become
more widely used in the everyday economy. It's going to have to become more than just something
that people invest and speculate on. So that's step one, Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming
more mainstream for everyday people. Then after that is achieved, then yes, you can function as
a bank. And you can essentially say the same way that banks taken US dollars and then lend those
dollars out and then also provide liquidity to those
customers simultaneously, you know, essentially photocopying dollars.
You could do that with crypto and you could essentially have depositories where people
could store their crypto, receive a stake or yield on it.
And then in return for that stake or yield, you then double leverage the assets and loan
them out or stake them again or whatever.
But you could do that.
You could create an ecosystem where it functions as a crypto bank.
And that could be attractive.
That would make it an attractive business for me.
As they stand today in the form that they are of just…
Anyone's going to do it, Tom Lee.
Yeah.
Okay.
I like that argument. Maybe I will buy BMNR. in the form that they are of just... Anyone's going to do it, Tom Lee. Yeah. Okay. And if they make that pivot,
maybe I will buy B&R.
But right now, as they stand,
the strategy of saying,
I want to acquire as much of the asset at any price
and dilute shareholders to any extent
in order to do so,
that's not attractive to me.
When the pivot happens,
then maybe I will be interested in those companies.
But to me,
I want to see a real business model.
I want to see a plan to generate shareholder returns
because I don't think the strategy of diluting ad infinitum
into a new asset is the smartest thing ever.
I'm excited, though.
I see we got a couple people joining us up here.
We got a Gov.
We got a Crane Shares.
I'm excited for this conversation.
I don't know if you guys saw a video a couple weeks ago.
I saw a video at the New York Stock Exchange.
There was this robot going around and it had a ticker on it.
It was the crane shares one.
So we brought them on to talk a little bit about humanoid robots and all that stuff going on.
Obviously, it's a big conversation that we have on the spaces a bunch.
I'm excited to jump in here.
I see we got you hanging out here with us.
Yeah, absolutely.
Super excited for this conversation.
This is an area that is hot in the market right now as well.
Talking robotics.
If you look across the spectrum, pretty much everything that's connected to it is surging.
I think when people hear robotics, like a lot of them, like the brain goes right away
to Tesla, which, you know, not a bad play there on Optimus. but there's a lot more like pure marketplace, I would say in this robotics area.
And that's what I wanted to focus in on today together with CraneShare. So Evan lightly
mentioned it there. They built out an ETF for this as well. It's KOID. I've been talking with
more people and people just keep mentioning this one. And I was like, how do you know about it?
They're just like, look at it. You know, it it's it's hard to miss right now of 25 they just launched it in june so literally three months here it's
continuing to surge it's a really interesting one um similar to some other conversations that
we've had and some people see this as pro or con there are a lot of holdings inside of it in the
robotics world that we've seen a lot of international names
i went on the website yes like a lot of stuff like ubitech right that like the average
investor in the u.s is not getting exposure to uh but now what country do you think ubitech
robotic is from ubitech are you gonna tell me it's not from china i don't know i mean it trades on the shanghen so there you go all right
so hong kong um yeah so there's just a lot of names in this world but to be honest there are
people who are bigger experts than us uh the guys over at crane shares also are like really in the
thick of it you know with in-person robots and things like that i think these things are gonna
get scary good over the next couple years and then once you actually have the it, you know, with in-person robots and things like that. I think these things are going to get scary good over the next couple of years. And then once you actually have the robots,
you know, fully functioning, then you can really start to input them into a variety of different
use cases. So with that being said, let's just pull in the team behind their account. How's it
going? Is it Derek on there? Yeah, Derek's here. Thank you for having me. Yeah, Derek, our pleasure. I know that you're really in the thick of this world. You've been
traveling around and doing a lot of different stuff together with the robots. Can you talk
to us about just what excites you about this industry and what the everyday investors should
be paying attention to that maybe they're not focused on yet? Yeah, I think like just starting
from like last year, we started started seeing a lot of big tech giants
like Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia, they're all betting on one category.
I think people made a lot of money on AI already.
So with this boom of AI, I think a lot of tech companies now paving the way for the next investment. And if you think about the digital world of AI
is kind of like trillions of dollars opportunities.
Elon Musk said like the humanoid
is really kind of like bringing AI to the real world.
And that is probably like three times,
four times bigger than the digital world AI.
So no wonder, I think like that's the focus for a lot of investors
and especially the tech leaders.
The tech leaders, they are now a trillion dollar market cap
and they have cash in hand, ready to deploy,
to develop the next big thing.
And the next big thing, we think think is this kind of physical AI that are using AI to make interaction with our factories,
warehouses, even bringing the robotics to our home
that can do a lot of stuff.
And the total address remark is definitely trillion dollar level.
So we're at early stage and we should,
I think investors should get ready for this kind of like new chat GPT moment that's really coming, I think, in the next one or two years.
Yeah, I like that chat GPT moment that you pointed out.
Stock talk, actually going to pull you right into the conversation for a second here.
The chat GPT moment, right, was they released chatGPT. And initially, like the first
thing was people were like having it write poems, right? And then I think kids were like, oh, wow,
this could be my school homework for me. And then people like, whoa, I can code with this.
And it just, you know, overtook everything in like a month or two. What do you think that moment is
for robots? It's a little bit different because there's a physical version versus just having
something on your computer. But I do feel like we are going to have that moment. Yeah, I think if you think about the traditional digital AI,
we have textiles and images, videos on the internet
that allow the AI model to train and recognize patterns.
So if you listen to Jensen Huang on the recent GTC conference,
they come up with like Isaac foundational model.
It's like a platform that's really built to create the generalized robotic.
So that means like you can now have action data.
You have like logic data.
You have all kinds of like environment data from our physical world can be used to train the model.
And I think now a lot of companies are now gathering data that's really competing to be
the humanoid company that controls a lot of data so they can create a great model.
model so the humanoid body can be super intelligent. But we do think we can actually create synthetic
So the humanoid body can be super intelligent.
data based on the human demonstration, based on the real world interaction. That synthetic
data is where the data training can be scalable. So that makes the large language model
probably now become the large action model.
So those models is like similar framework
as we trained AI models now powered chat to chat to PT.
So once those action model
and those environment models are trained in a good level,
as we have seen in chat-tpt, we're going to see the physical AI chat-tpt moment that's going to come in a few years.
If you look at some of the clips of the humanoid, the hardware, the motion control is really at
another level. We have the hardware so ready for a lot of abilities and functions
that are ready to do,
like do laundries,
like moving things,
sorting things on warehouses and factories.
But the intelligence level is behind.
There's so many companies now
doing this model training for the robotics.
But we already have that success There's so many companies now doing this model training for the robotics,
but we already have that success in the digital world.
So the same pattern, same framework now is just starting to be deployed in our physical world, in our real world.
So we're going to see that it's really coming in this year and next year.
Wow. This year, next year.
Wow, this year and next year. That is soon. Yeah, Evan.
I think it's got to be.
One good thing about ChatGBT is,
was anyone was able to go in and use it.
So I think whatever this thing,
it's going to be this real-world thing.
I don't think it can be some crazy gated,
high-pric price product or anything like
thing like that and that kind of leads me to think like uh stock talk and i'd like to get
your thoughts and then we can go over to uh the crane shares account but like
i wonder how much of it if it is is like these kind of um self-driving cars like they they
really are robots self-driving cars are robots that's what. Self-driving cars are robots. That's what it is.
And it is real-world AI. And I wonder if that's kind of just seeing where stuff is at. I know
there was an Amazon Zoox headline here. And I'd be curious. I know I'm looking through this,
and I'd be curious if some of these play in that space as well after. But yeah, to me,
my guess would be self-driving-driving cars would be kind of that
chat gbt moment in the space yeah i mean self-driving cars have been here for a while
i mean you look at you know waymo has actually been here for quite a while if you've been in
san francisco or been in um phoenix or you know if you've if you've seen or been in a self-driving
car before but it's still expanding oh yeah i think
that kind of point is is like i feel like there's gonna be at some point in that uh it's here moment
whenever you can just anyone yeah i think the thing your freaking blue cruise has it or whatever
it is yeah i think the thing with maybe that's the bar but i think the thing with autonomous
vehicles the reason they sort of haven't acted as a chat gpt moment for robotics i think because in the consumer perception it's still like a car and even though cars are robots humans don't really perceive them
that way i think because maybe you know they're old first of all they're you know very old cars
first became commercial in like the very early 1900s, right? 1903, 1904.
So cars have been around for a long time.
So it's hard for like the human perception to kind of synonymize them with robots. I think what people want to see is like Star Wars type of robots.
That's what people want to see to really have, I think, a consumer chat GPD moment.
People want to see robots walking around, you know?
And I think that's why, and i think that's why i frankly
think that's why there's been such a particular focus on humanoids because not only are they more
familiar and uh wonderful and magnificent and sort of wow inducing to the average person when
when they see a human walking around but also they're already fit and conditioned for all of
the environments that have already been built for humans around the world, right?
Like when you build humanoid robots, you don't need to build new's why humanoids are so compelling because no,
no major infrastructure changes are needed to deploy them rapidly and vastly. That's the small
thing that a lot of people miss as to why humanoids are so compelling, but that's what
people want to see. They want to see human robots and in a smaller way, they want to see robots in
their everyday life. And I think one way that that's happening recently is with food delivery
robots. Right. I mean, at least in Dallas, I mean, I imagine it's like this in New York as well.
I've been most big cities are probably like this, but in Dallas, there's food delivery robots
everywhere now in downtown Dallas. Like they're driving around all the time. Like whenever I'm
walking Leo, I see at least one. And, you know, usually the ones I see down here are the AV ride robots,
which is owned by Nebius. But there are other companies doing that to serve robotics is another
company that's doing it, I believe, in partnership with Uber. They have serve robotics, you know,
these small little autonomous, I guess, coolers really is what they are, or coolers on wheels,
autonomous coolers on wheels that have a little flag on top.
At least the AV ride ones do when they're in busy areas downtown so people can see them.
And they just drive by you and go to their destination.
And then the person gets a notification on their phone.
They come downstairs.
The cooler pops open.
They put in a code.
code the cooler pops open and get the food you know like that's a very very simple thing that
The cooler pops open and get the food.
can be scaled very easily as is autonomous driving and look what tesla is doing autonomous
driving now they're going to scale they have a bigger service area in austin than waymo already
and now they're going to arizona tesla will scale in arizona rapidly the beauty of tesla's
approaches is they're not using a lidDAR-based approach, so they can scale very rapidly. And so, yeah, eventually people will be sitting in
self-driving cars, getting their food from autonomous robots that came down the sidewalk
to their house, and will probably have a humanoid robot in their home within the next decade.
And then people are going to be like, okay, the era of robotics is here, but it's frankly already
here. Like, you look what's happening in warehousing already right and that's really the first place
you're gonna see it because they have the money what's happening in warehousing already is insane
like so many people are being fired in warehousing and fulfillment jobs because they're being
replaced outright by robots they're they're not becoming more efficient they're being replaced
outright you know the moving of a package is package from one palette to another like all these things are
being automated entire in their entirety so yes the age of era of robotics is here in the the
the age of ai software is really helping accelerate it accelerate the usefulness of it and
really helping accelerate it accelerate the usefulness of it and yeah it's it's already here
people are just going to need that humanoid moment i think to be like oh what i could buy a robot that
like does my dishes and like it lives in my house when that moment happens then people feel like
they're in the future but it's already here yeah we have we have actually bring one of the humanoid to ring the bell for the core ETF at NASDAQ.
And when people see the humanoid running around at Times Square, people are shocked.
People thought like, that's not real.
So when they touch it and when they come like shake hands with it, people start to like believe it.
So I think we like just seeing is believing.
Like when you have those humanoid robotics, like when you see the running and doing actual
work, now people are going to see that chat GPT moment.
Derek, I agree with you.
I actually read, there was a research paper, I think, McGinn maybe was the guy's name, but he made the argument that humans need to see, the question was, why do robots have a head? Why do they here that humans need to see that robot look human-like and act human-like
to really get that ChatGPT moment.
Exactly. Exactly. I agree a lot with what you said.
Just like I was talking to a lot of model companies
that they have to train the model using human demonstration to gather data.
So that's why it's very intuitive to have the robotic human shape.
So you have hand, you have legs, data.
So those data can be really transferred from human action.
So that's making the models more scalable when you have human data input.
Derek, one more question from me.
Robots, by definition, I guess, have been around for quite some time.
I mean, I think back to the Roomba vacuum that started going around vacuuming up your house for you.
Every time I'm in an airport lounge or a nicer restaurant, I see the
little autonomous dish guy come by that takes them back to the kitchen and stuff.
Where are we at now? And how much closer are we to these humanoids becoming maybe a real thing
in that GPT moment where people are actually seeing them in everyday life?
Well, I think we have now models ready to become the chat-to-peak moment,
with all kinds of foundational model companies come out to train a model in a scale we have never seen before.
And the real question, I think, is commercialization.
So I think what you just said, warehouses, just going to use it already.
We have been using a lot of robotics on factories.
So if you think like those like industrial arms,
there's like now all the factories like creating by like digital twin.
But when we talk to like factory owners, manufacturing owners,
there's a still worried labor intensive.
We still need the last mile of automation.
So when this demand for humanoids is actually traded by them,
so if you think about Elon, he's doing like Tesla manufacturing,
he's doing like SpaceX, like Rockies manufacturing.
He understand the real or the biggest opportunity is really within the manufacturing.
You think about like in the US, this shortage labor and across Europe and Asia.
This is probably the biggest opportunity in terms of commercialization
to really finish the last mile of automation um so we do i agree there's a lot of robotics already
think about like vacuums think about like those like consumer focused um applications
but i think the first wave gonna going to be manufacturing and factories and
also the warehouses and logistics and fulfillment. I think more than just like food delivery,
Amazon just announced they're going to test using Humanoid to deliver a package. They
have I think like Humanoid park actually at Seattle that people can really
see how they're testing humanoid, do the whole package delivery. So we're going to go to
that direction no matter what. So it's just a matter of time how fast all kinds of like
parties going to like cooperate and get a model to those mass production humanoid bodies.
So I think this is something more like, I think people didn't actually understand what
the scale of the impact to our economy.
And apparently, like, investors haven't really gotten ready to a lot of those companies.
Because first, a lot of those companies because first a lot of companies still private think about like figure AI that
just raised like a billion dollar reaching like 39 billion dollar
valuation there's a lot of like startups actually now trying to do become the
iPhone for the smart phone then Tesla for car, you're gonna have these smart human-shaped robotic
that with tons of competitors now coming to become the leader.
So we think at this stage,
investors should get ready for probably
the Pix and Shalvers company,
that providing the components, actuators,
mechanical systems, sensors, critical materials for those companies.
And those companies, a lot of those are public, and they've been doing very well this year, as we have seen in the core ADTF.
I'll follow up with another quick question, actually, Derek.
The case for the robotics, I mean, it seems pretty clear for humanoids.
And we know the use cases.
That all makes perfect sense to me.
I love that.
But to tie this in a little bit, I'm an investor, right?
And the market's a forward-looking thing.
Obviously, AI is going to be a big piece of this.
What are the other pieces here?
And I want to tie it into COID a little bit, because when I look at the top holding, obviously, AI is going to be a big piece of this. What are the other pieces here?
And I want to tie it into COID a little bit,
because when I look at the top holding I see is MP Material,
the name that's been talked about on this space quite a lot recently.
What are the other pieces of the robotics industry that you guys have in this ETF?
And where should we be looking as investors thinking,
hey, this is an opportunity or somewhere where we want some exposure to? Yeah, I think like most investors already have been exposed to U.S. focused
technology companies, especially big technology companies. So we think like for the humanoid
ecosystem, there's like three components, three categories. One is the brain. The company's
providing like intelligence. Those are like a lot of US technology companies.
But then there's integrators, including Tesla, UBTech, Rainbow Technology, even some EV companies now transitioning their business model to more humanoid integrator.
more integrity. But the real, I think like the first wave of Westman is the body. If
you look at the manufacturing cost of the Tesla's like Optimus, it's like, I think like
the Gen 2 is about like 40 to 50,000. Then I think they just announced like a third version
of it is probably going to be more expensive with very complex hand.
And the actuation system, the mechanical systems is going to cost a lot of money.
If everybody want to be scalable and starting this mass production, they're going to need a lot of components.
And they're going to figure out the supply chain solution for that
you do have this is global competition it's more than us you have the korean um a government really
putting humanoid as the most critical mission for the country as this aging population is really
hitting the country hard china's the same like you have shortage labors across the factories in china
China is the same.
You have shortage laborers across the factories in China.
You have a lot of stuff that's like Redigo, like Unitree.
They're probably going to, I think they already announced IPO.
So with all those startups, you're going to have a great demand for those components,
including bearings, including actuators, including a lot of key components like detectors hand,
the sensors on the fingers. Those companies I think like ready to get a lot of revenue, ready to go.
So those are the companies we target as the first wave of the enablers and benefiters from the humanoid disruption.
Yeah, really good questions there, Ryan, I find this area
super interesting as well. I think you guys are making good
points, you know, like, people got to see and feel and touch it,
but it's coming regardless one way or the other. I think right
now one thing that's interesting that I wanted to ask you about terry because i feel like you know ryan's like hey like
why do the robots need faces right heads well to make them more human but i actually think that the
more quicker injection of robots is going to be the more task specific robots so like
i have a matic robot right it cleans my floors and it just uses computer vision, which is kind of cool to
like build an outlet of my place. And people are going to get like, I have a dream that every house
has a dishwashing robot, you know, and that dishwashing robot just sits over your dishwasher.
It doesn't need a face. It just needs some, some arms, right? Do you think that that's kind of the
more quick path that we go here? Or is it the more humanized style robots that can do a ton of tasks
versus specialized tasks?
Yeah, I think we have a lot of specialized tasks robots.
That's really the consumer ready,
especially a lot of cleaning robot.
But if you listen to like Jensen Huang, Elon,
and a lot of humanoid company,
especially the model companies who build the models for generalized humanoid companies, especially the model companies who build models for generalized
humanoid robotics, if you think about there's one issue, it's really how to be scalable.
How to build, how do you upgrade when you have a mass production of humanoid robotics. Like if you think about the models can be smarter every day, every month,
the capability with one upgrade, you can have more capabilities for humanoid.
And building those are very expensive.
At this stage, we think like the cost can come down in the future,
but like still it's a cost to build those bases.
It's like your iPhone. It takes probably
like $100 to make it but then the most valuable is the intelligence that's kind of
enabled to do a lot of things going forward. If you keep upgrading, you think about if the first
humanoid come out is going to be iPhone 1, that the programs or the functions are going to be very limited.
But when you upgrade it several times,
you're going to have humanoid that's going to be,
tons of applications are going to be available.
So you do see that's really the similar trajectory as we have the smartphone and smart
cars maybe where like NVIDIA is now creating this framework like they did for AI, like they did for
computers is really make it scalable and programmable. And you can add on, it's open source by the way, so you can add unlimited use cases for this humanoid,
either in the factory, in the warehouse, in the home.
It can be the same robot and you can just add
on unlimitedness of the applications on it.
So that's very different.
That's why we call it generalized robotic. It's very different from
the task specific. Task specific can be very cheap. That's true. But when you have a mass production
to the same type of humanoid robotics, I think the cost is going to be really manageable.
I think that, and according to Elon and many other star leaders, that's the only way to solve this problem.
Okay, understood.
And then follow-up question, I do feel like we're going to see more, you know, stocks
and ETFs that are specifically within the robotic spectrum.
I think that that's an area that people are pushing towards.
Obviously, you've had a lot of outperformance, I would say, you know, if you look at, like
there's the classic one that I've looked at for years, you know, bots.
Right. And you're really outperforming that.
Even just being out for three months, you basically have the same performance that they've had in five years.
So my question is, what really stands out about this specific ETFs, like what people should know about the holdings and why this one is, you know, one outperforming, but two, set to continue to have top of the line names and the research
that's going into it, really just kind of digging into like, what's, who's structuring
this ETF to be primed for now, but also the future.
Yeah, I think like a lot of robotic ETFs really launched like 10, five to 10 years ago, where the humanoid industry
doesn't exist.
So we launched COID, K-O-I-D, really designed to capture the humanoid opportunity.
So it's very different from the traditional robotics or automation target.
So if you look at the holding, the overlap is so little, there's not much overlap.
Where we identify the company that has to be either the humanoid robotic integrators themselves
or like supplier for the humanoid startup or like incubators. So that's a process we think
is most relevant for this stage because
we have those companies in humanoid ready to go so the supplier is going to be naturally the
benefiters for the future growth for humanoid so the process is really driven by a ground research
we did ourselves and also we partnered with with our index provider, Merkube.
So they stopped like a rule-based framework
to select companies from a universe
of more than thousands of companies
to narrow down to 50 most relevant humanoid ecosystem.
You have integrators, you have brain, you have body.
Those 50 companies are equally weighted and rebalanced quarterly.
So we have this quarterly process to keep updating the humanoid relevant companies based on their relevance and their supply chain partnership with the startups.
And also how their business model
is going to be fundamentally disrupted
by humanoid development.
So that process is really, I think,
more forward-looking at this stage
because this is an early opportunity
and it's very diversified.
We think instead of betting on one or two company
or just one product,
we should be very diversified as this is
sorry um so we have things like country allocation we are like 30 u.s 30 percent china then the rest
is like japan germany and the rest of the developed so it's very diversified in terms of geographic and also like single names were just like 2% each.
So this year, I think a lot of performance really driven by like Asia and also like even like rare earth materials.
Those like critical material for the humanoid manufacturing and the performance this year has been very good to drive the performance.
So going forward, we're going to see this ecosystem going to be dynamically updated,
and we're going to capture the involvement of the industry going forward.
That's a perfect explanation. I think that really hits it on the head why this is different than the stuff that's been launched previously.
So I know that we have the 30-minute slot here kind of carved out.
And I'll see if anybody else, Evan, StockTalk, Ryan, have comments on this.
But I encourage everyone to take a look.
KOID, excited to be working with CraneShares as well.
If people are interested with CraneShares, you've probably heard of Kweb kweb that's their flagship etf it's got about nine and a half
billion dollars in it it's the csi china internet etf and they've done you know obviously really
well with that that's about 45 this year so continues to uh kill it there and a lot of
training volume in that this is a much newer one here with KOID, but regardless,
you know, Creature is a name I've been following for a long time.
So exciting for me to be working together and getting the word out about this.
And I also just genuinely believe in this robotics area.
And I also think it's really interesting, the exposure you can get through this.
So just some comments from me.
I'll just go around the panel, see if there's any other final comments
that give you a chance, Derek Stocktalk. Any other comments or questions you want to throw in here?
Curious, were you guys able to get an allocation to Unitree?
Yeah, so they are pre-IPO. So after they listed, I think that's definitely a target.
We have a strategic partnership with them, both in china and the us so uh we bring one of
their model uh unitry g1 actually that's the koi bot we we did a bear raining and uh there was some
like wall street um interaction with like investors so that's something like we're gonna keep doing
going forward yeah that's awesome it would be cool to see unitry there i know that's like you know
one of the world's leading robotics companies so a lot of people i think would
want to get exposure to that yeah 100 great one evan anything else for you yeah no i appreciate
you being here people should definitely follow the the account um i mean maybe i'll maybe i'll
save my question for next time and say people should just go to the
website, check in, do your research. I did pin up in the nest above the top 20 largest holdings up
there. I just got that from the website. But yeah, take a little bit of a dig in. I feel like there's
also a lot of names in there. Like when I do my research, it's been a lot of US centric names.
And obviously you guys have been reading the headlines around around Alibaba and Baidu and all these huge internet tech names, all these K-Web-type names doing pretty well.
And yeah, people are getting excited about China.
We'll see if it ends up here going in.
But this seems like another interesting area.
As I'm also looking through a lot of the holdings, there's a lot of rare earth metals,
and it seems like that seems to be one of the major themes in here.
So that's also a discussion that we have along the spaces.
One of the things that I enjoy doing from ETFs in these conversations
that I've delivered value,
no matter even if I don't go in and buy the ETF necessarily,
is researching into the holdings of it,
especially the largest holdings.
And then seeing, Hey, what's interesting about it?
Why do they like this?
Maybe make one or two of those names your own.
I find that to be a pretty decent strategy.
So yeah, maybe there, maybe it's, this isn't the right ETF for you,
but maybe there's a couple of different holdings in there that,
that could be valuable.
And this is a company, a group of people who are
known for building products in this space and in this area,
and they have a good expertise.
So you can at least take some of their knowledge to start your research.
This is what I would say.
But I appreciate everyone for being here and definitely should be following the speakers.
Thank you very much.
Agreed. Agreed. Ryan, anything else for you?
No, all good. I mean, the most interesting piece to me, whenever we see some of these,
we have professionals like GreenShares. Obviously, they have that KWeb one that is super popular, especially over on our trading space. A lot of talk around that name and in our
stock picking show because of how well China's been doing here of late and being able
to get some of the exposure to international things without having to go figure out how to
how do I buy on the Chinese or the the Hong Kong or you know one of those different exchanges and
being able to get access here I think it's just fantastic so definitely worth putting on the radar
for sure I agree Derek any final comments going to share with us on it?
Yeah, I think like a lot of people, they have
betting on like single names, but like
COID is kind of like equal weighted 50 names that offer you
the kind of like the basket for the whole industry.
So it's one different approach, but like regardless,
there's tons of cool companies like investors
can take a look within the portfolio, but happy to have a conversation with any of the
investors if you have more in question on the CrainShare company or the COID ETF, but
happy to share any information.
Yeah, perfect.
We're going to have CrainShare back on in a few weeks here and we'll
really dig further into details but dad appreciate you coming on and sharing this with us koid is the
ticker crane chairs is the company i'm going to continue to dig in on my end encourage everybody
to add this to their watch list anyway i can see sorry if i'm lagging here a little bit is there
any way i could see a robot of course yeah we we're gonna have we
have a partnership with uh the unitry like usa they have uh like actually a robot just uh outside
of the new york uh in their long island warehouse they have like tons of those robot like humanoid
and also like robotic dogs so if you like see see one, like we can actually, we can bring one of the robotic to our office
in Midtown, New York, if you wanna check it out.
Yeah.
I think that's pretty cool.
I think everyone down below,
you should get excited and see that maybe soon.
Yeah, seeing is believing.
Can't wait for it. Thanks so much, Derek. I'll turn it back over to you here
yeah really appreciate Derek coming on sharing those thoughts putting this on all of our radar
and big shout out to all the speakers that have been up here sharing their thoughts of course my
two co-hosts you should definitely be following both of them who we discovered today that the
two mag seven stocks that they're both a
fan of are the only ones that have not hit all-time highs so i'm going to hold that over their heads
here for a little while but now it's all in good fun appreciate everyone tuning into the show i was
looking at the largest holdings koid by the way tesla's in there i'd also if we we, if we, that was both of us too. So that's another one. 0 for 3.
0 for 3.
Well, that's where we're going to leave it at today.
We'll pick up tomorrow.
What is today?
Today's Wednesday, right?
Yeah, we'll pick up tomorrow.
Power hour right here.
Stocks on Spaces.
Make sure you follow the host account.
We go live 3 p.m. Eastern each and every afternoon.
And yeah, this whole thing was recorded as always.
If you missed any part of the first portion of the show,
you can definitely listen back to that
all the way through this great humanoid robotic talk
with our friends over at Crane Share.
So appreciate everyone tuning in.
We'll see you guys tomorrow. Thank you.
