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I Don't Expect A Reversal Until This Date
Recorded: April 9, 2025 Duration: 0:46:51Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent live stream, the speaker analyzed the shifting trends in the crypto and traditional markets, noting increased interest in stocks over crypto, potential bear market signals, and strategies for future investments in Bitcoin. The discussion also touched on the impact of economic conditions on asset classes and the evolving role of social media in crypto engagement.
Full Transcription
are we live now hey we are live very nice let me actually go into my own live stream right here
just being live on twitter of course i'm going to continue with this tradition it was actually
quite fun yesterday uh we'll do these morning live streams while I record my regular YouTube videos
and see what's up. What's up, Mr. Juice? How you doing, man? I need to take off my pants. It's
cold, but it's hot here. It's still like fucking negative degrees in Helsinki, but
for whatever reason, these apartments are so well insulated that
uh just gets really fucking hot what's up Mr. PeePoo good to see you on Twitter as well sir
good to see you on Twitter as well I'm just getting set up on my own end over here looking
at some stonks the old stonks I've been actually a lot more active in shtonks as of recent than compared to crypto, Bitcoin,
whatever the fuck you want to call it.
I mean, now that I recognize it, monthly MACD on triple Qs is down.
We don't see that unless if things are typically going a lot more down.
Not always, I guess, but usually an indication of a more longer term corrective period,
you know, coming in from these extreme levels. So I've already got filled on pretty much
everything that I want to get filled on. Um, when it comes to, uh, stocks for where they're
at right now, what's up 15 or 1958. Hey, all good ass. Yeah. I'll let, like I said, I'll continue
to do these live streams in the morning
just for Twitter while I record my regular YouTube video. Maybe I hang out for like a few minutes as
well. But you know, traditional markets are, you know, especially what I'm interested in right
here is of course tech. It's already down 25%. Down 25%. I want to be about 50% in as far as my total intended size for long-term investments,
but still holding a lot on the side.
I think that things could easily come down more here.
In fact, I mean, there's probably going to be like a month of bounce somewhat soon, but
after that, can things roll over and come a little bit lower?
Sure.
And one chart that I keep on going back to is back here nasdaq from uh the uh from the dot-com bubble um this is a monthly chart let
me go to a weekly hey i was just so fucking nasty man it's just so fucking nasty this was
a downtrend that from high to low took how long it took 931 days so just under three years is that right yeah
yeah close to three years but under three years and there were several multi-month long rallies
along the way so real bear market can get very fucking nasty are we headed into a real bear
market here i don't know i mean things are i think come down more. I don't know if it's going to be necessarily like this, but of course it's always
good to be aware of what's possible. You know, that's why I'm holding a lot on the side as of
right now. I'm still holding another, or I'm holding about half of my intended size for
basically 50% down on traditional markets, specifically the tech sector right here.
I even see another
nightman pattern. That one continues to show up everywhere. Hey, what's up, Capitan? Yeah,
man, it's been a long time. Like I said, though, I'll continue to do these live streams here on
Twitter just in the morning, just like a quick in and out, basically. Maybe I hang around for
a few minutes, but I just want to be recording my YouTube video and seeing what's up, you know, seeing what's up across the Twitterscape as that's where it seems like everything's kind of going on nowadays.
You know, I find Twitter incredibly convenient for shit like this, except the only my only gripe is the playback feature for Twitter is just not good.
feature for Twitter is just not good. That obviously has a long way to go to get anywhere
near what YouTube offers right now, but it's still pretty damn fun. I need to make sure that
I got all my charts in the proper ordering here. So let me get back to my notes. Okay.
Where are we going to start this one off? Yeah, we're going to start this one off over here,
actually. Let's double check. No. Hey, there's my Nightman man the night man dildo of peace and prosperity
providing a bit of a bounce there but the night man cometh and he ain't going away just yet oh
fuck that's one last thing um that i for completely forgot down bias The PA pivot yes, and where's our PA pivot right now?
Well four hours not what I'm interested in daily daily stills a move back to actually 12 hour house. I'm sure of it
Had to have moved down to about 80,000 bucks. Yeah, indeed it has okay cool. All right, not losing my fucking mind
It has. Okay, cool. All right. Not losing my fucking mind.
Let's see. Let's get rid of this one. Where is my chart that I'm looking for? Yes, there we go.
Okay. Beautiful. Lovely. Amazing. Anyways, let's see. Let's see. It's getting back on over here.
Is this X in exclusive? Yeah, it's so like I said, I'm going to continue to do live streams
on YouTube, um, that are like the regular live streams. This is not going to be like that. It's
not going to be like, uh, you know, Q and A's and shit like this. Um, you know, maybe we chat around
a little bit, um, here and there, but ultimately I just want to be having these live while I record
my usual videos and just kind of like see what's going on. Yeah. Dr. Jason
Polk knows he's a doctor after all. Trust me. I'm a doctor. Anyways, anyways, uh, I need to make
sure that I got all my charts in the proper order here so that the analysis can flow. Okay. Yes. So
we start off here. Okay. Good. Then where? Okay. Yes, we got that. Simple enough. What's next after that? Okay. We can go
over here. Okay. That's actually perfectly flowing. Okay. Lovely. Very lovely indeed.
Let's see what CME is actually looking like about this. Oh, actually that's 86 and that is 85. Okay.
So a little bit of a difference there. Always have to favor CME, though.
But, you know, is the daily going to try for another bounce off of the blue 377? I mean, it gets very difficult when things get down here and stay down there for a while.
Because you've already effectively had one test back in March.
This would be the second and maybe even third test counted in April.
You know, these things will break if they,
if they hang around there for too long, generally. Anyways, can still take some time. Mark doesn't
move in one day now, does it? Bring back the Balkan dwarf meme analysis. I'm actually curious,
where is that thing as of now? Um, where has it gone? Wow. Back to its home, back where it belongs. All means go back home
after a long enough time. Yeah. Jesus, man. I remember when this thing pumped up all the way
here and I sold about here and I was like, Oh my God, I'm the worst trader of all time.
Oh God. Fun times, man. Fun times.
Like, I get why people play the memes.
I get why people play the alts.
There's a lot of fun to be had.
There's a lot of volatility.
But holy shit, man, that volatility cuts both ways.
And for most of these things, it's a long trend down towards zero.
Despite that, you have to give the Balkan Dwarf its due credit.
Because for whatever reason, this thing does actually not
have a macro downtrend just yet. I mean, it is pretty much straight down here. And yeah,
I do think that that's going to be your all-time high probably for life. But
most things are already in like very, very hefty downtrends already at their lows. This thing
somehow holding up a little bit above that. Maybe memes are the hedge. Maybe memes are the hedge.
I was looking at Farcoin earlier too now we're not gonna do
requests or anything like that so yeah if you post it just understand like not
gonna you can post whatever you want but I'm not going to I'm not gonna go over
that stuff do you want to keep this these these Twitter exclusives a little
bit more focused but yeah looking at far I mean, this thing off of its high is what is down about 16%. I mean, that's a humongous fucking win for
fucking meme coin. You know, looking at other higher term timeframes, I still think that this
is probably a topping area, but it is weird to see something like this going on. I wouldn't have
expected, especially Farcoin, to be holding up in the way that it has so far but yeah let's check in on traditional marks really quickly you know again
you're around these previous major lows like it wouldn't take too much to get things to bounce
but then again we just had a bounce yesterday it looks like more than 10 bounce
yeah 11.5 bounce and then straight down after that. So things can get more crazy.
Things can get more crazy.
And again, things can take a long fucking time, a very long time.
I will always come back to this piece of price action right here from the 2000.com blow up.
Just down, down, down for many months, even multiple months of bounces along the way with humongous percentage moves.
And still down, down, down, down, down it goes.
That would be my greatest fear, to be honest, because I don't know if I have the resolve to sit through something like that.
That's what a real bear market looks like.
Ultimately, this thing did come down.
Keep in mind that this was the tech sector.
This is NASDAQ futures right here. This thing came down more than 83.5%. 83.5%. Not much
different than crypto, to be honest. Not much different. Now, of course, things have probably
stabilized significantly since then. Really, the only tests that we've had were the 2022 downside market.
I don't even really consider the March 2020 blowout a major test just because it was so quick.
It was so quick, both to the downside and the upside.
It's like, it's kind of painless in a way.
But yeah, looking at even 2022, I mean, this was relatively short.
It was about a year, about a year of downside.
And same thing
as what we saw in the 2000 blow up aftermath, you know, big bounces along the way, not as big,
to be fair. This one almost 20%. This one over here should be about 24, 25%. Indeed it is.
But then bottomed out a year later, it's just the market has not really been testing
the long-term hodlers for a long time. Hot air rises, Crown.
Don't forget that. It is true. It is true. It's just physics at the end of the day, isn't it?
Smells like pizza, beer, and ice cream. Yes. And also hand lotion. I think there's a lot of
that going on. Juice says, I hope VOO keeps going down so I can keep buying. Yeah. VOO remind me is, um, Vanguards
is that their, yeah, that is their S and P. Um, I like this one, but actually I invest mostly in
the, uh, VTI and no V VTI is the Vanguard fund that I like a lot. Um, but, uh, you know, this
one ain't bad as well, obviously. In fact, this one, how big off the highs are we right now?
21.5%. Yeah.
Is VIO their tech?
No, it's the ETF.
Or sorry, it's the S&P.
Okay.
Yeah, fair enough.
Yeah, pretty much one in the same here, to be honest.
But, you know, I think that things do come down lower as well.
But there's going to be bounces along the way.
That's what makes this tricky.
And we've seen a pretty large drop off already without any real weekly bounce.
I mean, I guess there was a small one over here.
But there hasn't been like a clear, you know, stop, reverse, put in a trend into a lower high and then continue down.
Nothing like that just yet.
It's been still like mostly orderly.
This has not felt like super crazy.
Maybe I'm just conditioned in like an improper way at this point.
But to me, it has not felt super crazy just yet.
You know, like I would expect during a major extreme move.
Can you look at us treasury, sir?
They are blowing their, their load and will play into this week.
Um, uh, sure.
I mean, we can look at them.
I'm not, I'm not qualified to really talk about treasury or bonds or anything like this.
They trade differently.
But if you're asking me to just look at a chart, well, I think you found your next higher low in a series of higher lows.
But I don't know if bonds necessarily work that way. Trend does seem to work amongst most things,
to be fair. But I do want to acknowledge that bonds are different. And just because you might
be decent at trading in traditional markets doesn't mean you're going to be great at trading
bonds and vice versa. There was a lot of bond traders when I was on the floor myself, and it was a different
game. It's just a different game. I didn't really even try to play it, to be honest. I just watched
a little bit, but I never really truly understood, and I still don't. Anyways, this thing is as steep
as a COVID crash. Well, in terms of percentage drawdown for last week, especially, you know, we did see something COVID-esque, right? You know, this was 13 and a quarter percent drop on the weekly and COVID on the death week was, well, it was actually like two weeks in a row, almost 20% down. Holy shit. Okay. So yeah, that, no, I have to disagree, man. COVID was much worse, like much, much worse than what we've seen even right now.
So that's why I still hold into my back pocket that I want to remain liquid.
I want to remain at least 50% liquid right now just in case we do get like a death blow lower
because 50% down from the highs is not an unheard of thing in the real bear market.
And 50% down or 40% down puts
you at 13, 13 and a half for NAS. 50% down puts you basically around the 2022 lows. You know,
I really do think that these areas are possible, but obviously it's going to take a long time if
that's going to happen. Like it's not going to be this month type of thing, or at least I really,
I really hope not. I mean, that would be a
little bit crazier for me. You know, I would really test my, uh, my metal if I'm actually
going to buy down there. If I saw a move like that happen this fucking week, Jesus, man. Um,
I think probably I'd be scared out of, out of, out of any potential positions. What's up,
Alex Shiva. Good morning to you, man. Thoughts on the U S 10 year. Yeah. I, I, I just briefly
looked at it. Look, it's an uptrend. I'm not equipped to talk about bonds, though. I think that that is its own sort of expertise. You've got to spend years and years studying that.
It is funny, though, on crypto Twitter, the big news is bonds right now.
Everyone's a fucking bond expert, but, you know, I'll tell you what you already know.
It's an uptrend.
Looks to me like you just got your next high or low.
If I had to call a direction, it'd be up.
I don't fucking know, though.
Bonds are weird.
Bonds are weird.
They trade differently.
And I'm certainly no expert there.
Greeny says, are you considering Bitcoin spot exposure if we dip further?
Greeny says, are you considering Bitcoin spot exposure if we dip further?
I've already bought four of my spot bags, but a relatively small amount.
That was around low 80s to upper 70s.
I won't buy Bitcoin spot again until we see a six handle at minimum.
I'd like to see upper 60s, like 67 to 68.
That's where I'll probably nibble a little bit more, but I'll still keep
some liquid. I don't want to go in all in at that point. But I could see a reversal in the upper
60s. But I do want to keep some of my back pocket in case things do get down to where I think they
very well could, which is the mid to low 50s. But again, you know, these things are not like
urgent right now. This is not an urgent
move or anything like this. I don't think it's gonna be happening like today or tomorrow, for
example. If these things are gonna happen, I suspect it's still, you know, we still are waiting
for a while, you know, maybe months. But yeah, anyways, I'm gonna take a few more sips of this
water, then we'll get into the actual analysis of the day. Uh, let me just make sure we're on the right timeframe right here. Yeah. That,
that actually can work. And let me get the chats over here. Uh, greenie says that's my same DCL
level previously as well. Yeah. Yeah. Um, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm very happy to keep some liquid right
now, but again, if you're just, if you're just tuning in right here and kind of hearing this
conversation out of context,
I want to be very clear.
For myself, these are very long-term holds.
They're intended to be 10 years minimum.
So I'm not saying that these are going to be instantly fucking profitable positions. I'm just looking 10 years down the road and saying, hey, I like this as an investable
asset.
It's already down 30% from the highs. At that point,'ll be you know 40 to 50 percent i'll go in some more i'm happy i'm
happy to hold that for a long time if it goes to zero it goes to zero but that's that's what i've
been doing since uh just before 2020 for bitcoin all my friends are liquidated, says BC Rich. Perhaps yes. Perhaps yes.
Maybe your friends were always liquid.
Eyes Wide Open says, are you still planning on moving to Florida?
Yeah, I'd really love to move to Florida or we'd really love to move to Florida.
We're planning, however.
I keep on trying to make an excuse for why we should do it like tomorrow.
But realistically, it's not going to make sense for us to fully move until
at the very end of this year or the very beginning of next year. It's just the unfortunate reality.
But yeah, you know, I'm really looking forward to it. Like I think about it every day. It just
won't fucking leave my brain. I've been looking at houses on Zillow the whole damn time as well.
And it's just like, I keep chomping at the bit it's like oh my god these prices are coming down so fucking fast it's great well not great I mean my my my father is trying to sell his house
he lives in California it's like basically fucking impossible it's basically fucking impossible it's
very nice house too but uh very difficult right now very difficult right now. Very difficult right now. And I feel like we're starting to see the real effects from 2020. If you remember in 2020, the economy was shitty and started to really get shitty. But stocks and commodities still went up just masking over the real problem. And I feel like ever since about 2022, it really started to settle in.
And things have been getting worse and worse as far as like the real market goes.
Keep in mind, fucking, you know, Bitcoin and the real market are very, very different, of course.
But or even even even equities.
Did you wait?
What Trump dropping real estate values for you? He's very nice,
very kind. Apparently he might also be raising my taxes. Last I saw, uh, he was considering
raising taxes on high income earners. I don't like the sounds of that. I do like the sounds
of 15%, uh, corporate corporate tax rate. That, that is quite nice to choose rich Nick moved to
Miami. I actually don't know. Um, I'm friends with him,
but I don't, I don't speak with him super often, but, uh, I, I know that he lives in New York
or maybe he used to or something like this. Um, cause I did see recently that he moved,
but that, that wasn't like a conversation between us. It was, I just saw a post on, um, on Twitter
we're caught in the terror in the Triffin's dilemma. I don't know what the Triffin's dilemma
is, but it starts with T and so does tariff. So maybe that's true. Anyways, the price,
except the price is going up in terms of Bitcoin. You mean versus real estate?
I, I don't know. I don't know if that's true. I don't know many houses quoted in Bitcoin to be
fair. The sun is good for you. Yeah, man, it really does make a difference.
I've always said that I don't mind the cold.
I don't mind the dark.
But I don't know, after being there during the summer or sorry, during the winter and
it's just warm and sunny all the time, it's hard to beat.
Like, I get it.
I get why people love it.
I'm 100% illiquid, full Bitcoin.
Do you think it will be better to exit now than wait six months or so?
I can't answer that question for you because I don't know the other specifics of your situation.
Do you need this money?
Is this money that you might need to necessarily pull from to support your daily spending?
If so, then I think think you got to be defensive. Now,
obviously it would have been better to be defensive back here when the downtrend was,
was really solidifying itself. And when we, when, but you know, the next best thing to do,
if you miss that is to, is to make the move, you know, now, but at the same time, if you don't need
and, and you're in a similar position
as myself where you're intended to hold things for five, 10 years, and again, I don't know what
price you got in at, to be fair. But if you are that more long-term, do you want to trade around
position and potentially fuck it up? Because it's always possible that things can just reverse out
of nowhere. That is a non-zero probability. So, uh, do the views on your channel go up or down in a market like last week? They go
up. In fact, the, uh, my most viewed videos are always when price has a tremendously nasty drop.
Um, yeah, it's, it's interesting, but it makes sense. You know, when are people most emotional? When are people most likely to, to, you know, to, to tune in and, and, and, uh, and care about an analysis
when it's when they're hurting. It's not when they're happy, of course, because when you're
happy, it's like, well, I don't even fucking need to, man. I can just sit on my hands and,
and keep on, uh, printing, printing every, every fucking day. So yeah.
So it's a bull run over yesterday, closed below 76. Uh, yeah yesterday closed below 76? Yeah, I do think so. I think
that this is done for a while. Again, I can be massively wrong about this, but let's get to the
actual analysis of the day. So I got everything set up here. I think we're ready to roll.
Okay, cool. Let me turn on my light as well.
What the fuck is going... What is...
Oh, derp.
That's my seat.
All right.
In yesterday's video, we went over conditions to confirm a breakdown for Bitcoin and all
markets, essentially.
And in today's video, seeing as we have now had that, where is this move likely to end and when and when, more importantly.
In fact, we'll answer the question of when right off the bat here.
So let's just jump right into it, starting off with a nice little chart of Bitcoin.
I brought this up very briefly yesterday, but I want to go a little bit more into it today, and that is going to be focused, of course, on this Fibonacci time extension anchored from the ultimate high of November 2021 to the ultimate low of November 2022.
And we found that this is very, very well matched up with a lot of the major pivots on Bitcoin in many cases forming local highs and also in some other cases, forming some actual breakouts
and local lows. The key point to take away from something like this isn't necessarily that when
we get one of these dates is going to be a higher low. It's just we know that that's going to be a
turning point. And of course, we have a date coming up right here. And this is essentially
where I would say, hey, things are likely to continue in their
current direction until a little bit closer to this date.
Maybe it's a little bit before, maybe it's a little bit after, but somewhere around this
date is what would make sense.
And that would be the spot 382 Fibonacci time extension here.
And that would essentially be the last week of this month.
So coming into the last week of this month, I would still be generally angled towards a downside. I'd still be generally expecting trend to continue.
And well, as of right now, the trend is to the downside and the trend might not be your friend,
but, but you can let it be, of course, you can always let it be. And, uh, and if, and when we
do, well, not if, if we get to this date, when we get to this date, I would be looking for a bit of a counter move, most likely, as these have generally aligned with counter moves.
So it would not necessarily imply that it's going to be 100 percent the ultimate low for Bitcoin.
And it's just up only from there, but probably a nice pivot.
And even in the event of of it not producing a major macro reversal, it could still produce a pretty nice bounce for sure.
I mean, it's no secret that crypto or, you know, well, anything really can bounce significantly during bear markets.
In fact, that's what really makes bear markets quite difficult because you get these fucking monumental bounces that eventually roll over.
So it makes you think that things are done and then they're not.
And then they're not.
Anyways, moving on from there, I do want to acknowledge that the price action pivot to
maintain bearish buys is still the same as yesterday, about just over $85,000 on a daily
closing basis.
That would be for spot price action.
Of course, CME, which I do put more weight on and I
do find is just better to go for in terms of signals, would be pivoted at just under $86,000.
Again, that would be on a closing basis. I'm waiting for this pivot to move down, but obviously
that won't move down until we get another short-term bounce followed by another lower high
in this case. So still, if you're looking for a reversal,
it's going to take its time, I suspect. Now, lower-term timeframes can bounce, obviously.
I mean, we're seeing a little bit of a bounce right now. That's not anything super crazy,
but I do believe, or if memory serves me correctly, there is a very small amount of
bullish divergence here on the four-hour time frame. You can see that the low from Monday versus the low of this morning is about $20 lower, $20 lower on the close. Yeah,
this one closed $75.54, this one closed $75.20, and we are seeing higher lows on RSI. And there
we go. It's like Caretaker just read my fucking mind.
You know, can we see a short term bounce?
Sure.
But in the short term, all bounces are relevant in terms of reversing trend as long as even
a full hour is closing below about 80,000 bucks.
So if you're looking for a short term pivot, that would be it in this case.
Anyways, let's now answer the question of where is this downside move likely to find
its resting place or at least a likely place of major bounce.
And so we've already gone over the date.
That would be the last week of this month.
And that can be like five days before the end of this month and maybe five days after
the end of this month.
But the other thing that I'd be keeping an eye on is something that is about to be confirmed.
And I do think that this is a formality, but technically it is not confirmed until tomorrow's
closure. But the 10-day time frame, we're seeing two major moving averages cross here. That would
be the red and the yellow, the red 5 EMA and the yellow 21 EMA. These are crossing and it will be
confirmed upon tomorrow night's closure. I have a very difficult time
seeing that this does not get confirmed. I mean, it implied that Bitcoin needs to rally
probably back above $85,000 to $86,000 between now and tomorrow night's closure. Assuming that
doesn't happen, anytime that we've seen this cross, we have seen a minimum test to the green moving average, the 55 EMA.
You can see an example over here.
This was from the 2021 market cycle.
You can see that price spent a lot of time basing between these two major moving averages as well.
And again, later on when things actually fully broke down here.
Again, crossing and then boom, you get a minimum test down to that 55.
Bounces again and then boom, get a minimum test down to that 55 bounces again and
then boom another break same thing over here this one obviously tested all in one go as does this
one too but condition met yet again same thing over here this one takes a while to officially
test the 55 but once those two major movement averages cross you know it was set in in motion
there and then of course we go back to the past couple iterations here.
You see that this one happens, I guess, one closure after.
This one happens a few.
And other than that, oh, yes, and we have one last iteration over here.
This one happening very, very early on in Bitcoin's history.
So what am I trying to say?
I'm trying to say that Bitcoin is very likely to see somewhere close to that green moving average.
Right now, that is $69,550. Can we
get wicks below? Sure. Can it maybe get slightly front run from the top? Also sure. But that would
still imply a little bit lower before the next potential major bounce region. And from there,
again, bounce would need to reclaim whatever the most recent price action pivot was for a lower high, in this
case, as we are in a downtrend. So, it's going to take some time. Again, I wouldn't get too wrapped
up in short-term bounces, even though they can be very violent and very impressive percentage-wise,
but it's going to take a little bit of patience here, I suspect. Anyways, on top of this, the other concerning
things on the higher-term timeframes remain in place. All higher-term timeframes, stochastic
momentum continues to the downside here. Daily continues down as long as Bitcoin's closing on
CME below 83,700 almost. Two-day timeframe freshly crossing down, playing out a trendline regression
as well. I didn't draw it in there, but you can visualize it from these highs.
That would be the December highs versus the January highs, and then more recently, the April highs.
And that continues down as long as Bitcoin's below $83,600.
In fact, that's the same as a daily, and that one is closing tonight as well.
The three-day time frame, oh, and by the way, the two-day time frame is having a silver cross to the downside as well.
So, very difficult to be bullish as long as that condition is met.
Three-day time frame, same thing.
Freshly crossing down, shows downside momentum as long as Bitcoin is below $80,350.
Closing tomorrow night.
Five-day time frame is also going to be down.
If we can load it up, let's see it right here.
This one getting into the critical zone. So I do think you're going to see a pretty damn big bounce for Bitcoin relatively
soon after it goes a bit lower. Maybe it's the low. We'll see how low things come. But this one
showing downside as long as Bitcoin is below 83,350. So we see a lot of things around 83
pivoted there. So I would go as far to say 83 is probably a very good area to be watching, even though
technically the current price action pivot is officially at 85 or 86, depending upon
which exchange that you're on.
10-day time frame also coming down here hard as long as Bitcoin's below 105.
The bi-weekly time frame, which is closing at the end of this week, also coming down
as long as Bitcoin's below 105.
And the monthly, of course, as we already know, has been down for a while on
bearish divergence as long as Bitcoin's below $107,000. So, you know, when I see all these
higher-term time frames positioned in the same direction as we have been stating for the past
month and a half now, I'm going to err towards bearishness. I'm just going to err towards
bearishness. Yes, there was some hopium before, but hopium is called hopium for a reason because it's
fucking hopium.
You know, you're praying and hoping.
Anyways, I do want to also acknowledge a major chart that we, I don't think that we spoke
about yesterday.
It might've been some time since we actually spoke about it, but that would be the tether
dominance chart here.
Tether dominance, essentially representing stablecoin dominance as it is still the major
player. And yes, we can look at the full stablecoin dominance as well, which is essentially the same
chart as this, except this one has more history. This one is looking like it's in a period of
consolidation and potential reversal from this prior downtrend.
This is a monthly time frame right here.
You can see that tether dominance is already at the prior high.
And if it can close above this area, or what is this, 580, essentially, by the end of this
month, that will, as far as I'm concerned, confirm the beginnings of a major monthly
reversal.
That's going to be supported by the monthly stochastic momentum here,
which is having bullish divergence plus continuing up.
I mean, this is a very high-term time frame, so that definitely matters.
Quarterly also looking...
Is this a bullish engulfing?
No, it's not a bullish engulfing, but nearly.
But anyways, the quarterly also looking like it wants to take a leg up here.
So is this a base?
And we see all of our bull market highs coming in around these major long-term bases.
This was your 2021 high.
This was your 2017 high.
I do have to kind of consider, or it's not that I consider
that it's like, that's a very well possibility here. If things were going to top out for tether
dominance, I believe we would have seen it below the 200 simple moon average on the weekly timeframe
here. But I guess if you want a point, like a counterpoint of failure for, for expecting this
thing to reverse back onto the downside, which I don't think is going to happen, but Hey, it's
always possible that we'd have to see a weekly closure basically below this week's low.
But for right now, you know, you're probably going to get a consolidation around this region just by
the sheer fact of it retesting the prior high. But this looks like it really does want to
confirm like a real reversal here. But I suppose time will tell. Time will tell as always.
On top of this, I wanted to acknowledge this indicator that we've been referencing for
the past few videos here as well.
And by the way, if you find this content valuable, consider like and subscribing.
It gets these videos into your inbox at the proper right time because, you know, it is
a bit time sensitive.
We're actually doing this one live on Twitter right now.
And I'll continue to likely do this as well.
It won't be like a live stream live stream on Twitter, but it'll be like just kind of,
you know, live while I record and hang out. And then and then we'll have our weekly live
streams on YouTube at the usual times. But anyways, back on to topic here. I wanted to.
Yes. Where was it? It was the five day time frame. Yeah. The five day time frame. We we we mapped out from yesterday's video that we've seen all of the macro lows for this current bull cycle along this area right here.
Along this area right here on the five-day oscillator, which I don't really have a good name for it just yet.
I'm still kind of working on it, I suppose.
working on it, I suppose. But looking at this here, we're about to see, assuming that Bitcoin
doesn't really have a big move to the upside by the next closure, which is tomorrow night,
we are going to see this level break, which would break for the first time during this whole bull
market. So I'd look at that as another indication that things are switching around here. On top of
that, we can, of course, reference the five-day HPDR row,
which we were looking at over here. This one also lower than what we've seen during this
whole bull market as well. I think that hopium fades on this one too. It's given us an indication
that something new is happening. There is a real shift for the long term here. And on top of that, when we put on the HPDR bands,
we can see that price is hanging around the 618 level. If it starts to close below there by,
again, tomorrow night's end of period, I do have to look for it to come down a little bit lower.
That would be somewhere around the 786 level here, which would be very close actually to that 10-day target
that we looked at earlier for the 5 versus 21 EMA cross.
And that would be very low 70s here, very low 70s.
That range will change around when we get the new open.
So maybe it goes up a little bit, maybe it goes down a little bit,
but should hang somewhere around there, I suspect.
So yeah, these things are starting to indicate,
you know, it really is a major change. On top of that, I want to again acknowledge that there's
going to be bounces along the way. Short term time frame bounces, you know, are going to happen
many times along the way, obviously. So these are not going to be like a straight down move.
I'm talking about very high term time frame analysis here. Like don't expect Bitcoin to fucking shit the bed completely today,
tomorrow, probably not even this week, but into these next, uh, I would say three weeks until
the end of this month, you know, it's a time to be more cautious. I do suspect that's when the
downside, um, or, or the downside won't subside until, you know, around the end of this month.
Um, but yeah, there are a few points of hopium,
at least for big bounces, tradable bounces as well.
Despite Bitcoin coming down here,
we've seen that the daily RSI
is actually making a significantly higher low as of right now.
I mean, it's going to be quite difficult
to get it below that February low.
I mean, you don't see it below this number very often.
That's a 24 and a half read right now at about 37. So you will
have bullish divergence available to you the next time that Bitcoin prints a local low. I mean,
maybe it tries one right here and tries another rally. But again, downside buys as long as the
downtrend is intact and the downtrend is intact as long as Bitcoin is below this pivot right here
at minimum. What else do we have?
Yeah, in fact, this is where I'll end things off.
I want to bring back the quantum wave bands.
I've been getting a shit ton of questions about these, I guess for good reason.
I mean, you know, it's quite a noob-friendly tool here.
And how did it do in the past day of price action?
Well, it actually caught this scalp pretty much perfectly here.
Again, this is just a scalping strategy after all.
It's not intended to catch like the big move.
But more importantly, did not take a loss yesterday, despite the very nasty price action.
And then also had another small win.
It looks like early this morning as well.
So, again, you know, if you are a you know, if you're newer and you just want like a guideline as to when you have a bit of an edge, I think that this tool can be super fucking useful.
I've actually been really impressed with it during this downtrend.
You can try it out for 30 days as well for free with the code trial in all capitals.
You can actually use that code for all of our or sorry, several of our offerings like the Quant Prime, like Caretaker's full indicator suite and the VMP.
And then, of course course this as well.
And actually, I'm going to be working on an AI chatbot for this as well, just because I see a lot of more new people using it. And I think that that would just be a major value add,
so you can have an assistant 24-7. And like I said, we're going to be raising the price at
the end of this month anyways, as we do add a few strategies to this. But that's enough shilling for one day.
Back onto Bitcoin and wrapping this one up.
Again, downside buys continues as long as Bitcoin is below the price action pivot of $85,000 on spot price action.
Bounces along the way, of course.
But, and maybe even in the short term here as well, as we did identify,
four-hour time frame has a little bit of bullish divergence in the dailies building it as well.
But again, bounces during a downtrend have to be looking for a lower high first.
And I would be very, very, very, very defensive in this market until, again, we get to this date over here.
That would be very late this month slash very early next month of May.
So, you know, a bit of patience here is warranted,
but things, you know, coming together, I suppose.
So we shall see.
We shall see yet again.
And as always, this is not financial advice.
I'm not a financial advisor.
In fact, this is just my opinion.
That's all that it is.
That's all this is. Just my opinion.
At the end of the day,
you can do whatever the fuck you'd like to do. And with that
said, I'd like to wish you the best of the best. Take care, much love, and see you hopefully tomorrow.
Lovely, lovely, lovely. All right, I'll hang around here on Twitter for just a few moments.
Who the fuck ordered a bear market? It's those damn kids again they're at it again
um did anyone else just get booted says real satoshi uh hopefully not um bitcoin 100 000
by end of weeks as well max that's quite the call um i i would you like to take a bet based
off of that i will take the other side sir um see you hopefully tomorrow is my bet on on his uh
close on the closing today on his today. I'm not sure what
that means. Nightman making us pay the troll toll. Yes, he's getting into the boy's hole and
our souls will never be the same. It looks like Bitcoin 90,000 today. Again, it would be like,
if you'd like to make a bet off that, I'd be happy to take the other side. But sure.
But sure.
We didn't specify which currency.
Maybe it's some shitcoin currency.
Who ordered the bull market from team?
People are very unhappy with this bull market.
I mean, it was a good one, though.
It was a good one.
It's mostly straight up the whole way through.
Sunny all the time.
Very nice and painless.
There we go.
Anyways, Eric Trump liquidated half the Ethereum community.
Did he?
Well, I haven't even checked on Ethereum.
Wow.
Jesus, man.
We were looking for $1,500, but this thing is...
I mean, it's already down here, Bitcoin hasn't like really had the big breakdown.
Doesn't look like the worst area for a bounce, though.
Let's see.
Does your daily have any bullish?
Daily literally can't even have bullish divergence here because the daily RSI is making lower lows compared to those February and March lows.
That's crazy.
You are about to hit extremes on volatility,
though. So I don't know how much more down it has to go before it has a pretty decent bounce.
These moves are going to start to get tighter and tighter. I just want to look at some of the
majors here. Ripple, same shit. And does it have potential? No, it does not have potential for
bullish divergence. That is very bizarre. Only Bitcoin has it right now. What about Solana? The other big one. This one will have potential to make it, yes. If it can form a low right here, it could put an easy rally towards like 120, I suppose. But time will tell. Time will tell on a lot of these things. This one did hit our, no, did not hit our $85 target. But 95 is also
kind of a bounce area as well, to be fair. That is the weekly 200 simple. Hard to hate that region.
And you're coming around these lows as well. Short-term bounce is certainly not out of the
question here. And I suppose I'd have to say the same thing about Bitcoin as well. But can easily
bounce here, put another lower high, like 81, 82, 83,000.
Come back down if it wants.
Anyways, I'll read a few more of these comments.
Then I will sign off for the day.
Jada Kiss says, do you think a reversal on tariffs would then signal risk on for markets and save the run?
I think if you saw a reversal on tariffs or if even Trump said something to the
tune of like, we're going to pause them for 90 days. I know that he recently said that they're
not going to do that, but I'm just giving you an example. I think the market would immediately be
up like 2000 points in traditional markets. For Bitcoin, what does that correlate to?
that correlate to at that point, I'd have to agree with our friend. They're saying 90,000 bucks,
At that point, I'd have to agree with our friend there saying 90,000 bucks,
but still well and far away, man. Um, so possible, but you know, we also don't know what we don't
know, right? Like right now the issue is tariffs, but who's to say that there's not gonna be another
issue tomorrow, you know, something different, something unrelated. Like that's, that's the
problem with looking at news. There's always new news to justify whatever move, you know, is happening. Um, failure stress levels at peak right now. I mean, I, I don't know about his
stress levels being at peak. He seems to hold onto things like pretty well, uh, who, uh, one guy I
was watching yesterday, I thought really looks stressed. Um, I don't know if I should say his
name, but he is, uh, one of the major progenitor progenitors of a of like the mega massive macro bull market.
One of the biggest bulls that I've seen, but he looked very, very uncomfortable when I last saw him.
But we'll see. I mean, again, markets aren't going to move in a straight line like you're going to get some pretty vicious bounces.
You know, it's it's hard to get like super, super bearish. Um, you know,
just looking for like a catastrophic fucking move to the downside that usually doesn't happen until
you get like the end, you know, to the, to, to like the real end of the move, like a real
capitulation. I'm here because it hurts says Igni Miusu. What do you expect from weekend,
a full moon? I don't know if I expect that to, to operate in the fashion that you'd be expecting.
Um, just because, you know, it's a downtrend right now, if it was an uptrend, probably so
that's when it seems to work out really, really well, but in a downtrend, uh, less so. Um, but
Hey, you know, my, my mark a good point for a short-term bounce could very easily be that.
Um, so again, you know, things can bounce quite a fair bit, but it's lower high watch as
long as you're below the last lower high. Think, uh, think cause they bought tons towards the top.
What? Oh, I see. Yeah. Um, let's see. I'll read a couple more of these and I'll sign off. Um,
let's see. Some of these chats are fucking great, man. God bless those bulls.
Yeah, man.
Let's see.
Someone's coined a major bounce on NASDAQ.
Let's see it right here.
Yeah, again, you know, probably going to bounce alongside Bitcoin.
Like traditional markets looks like they want to bounce a lot more to me than Bitcoin does.
But again, you know, it could bounce all the way up to 19,000 on NAS, and that'd be a perfect place for another lower
high. Like, that's what makes bear markets so fucking hard. But you do have potential for a
little bit of bullish divergence here. So yeah, I'd say watch NASDAQ. If that thing starts to
bounce a lot and really, really confirm that that divergence is going to be playing out, I would I would look at Bitcoin as likely to do the same.
And you probably get a shot into like the low 80s at, you know, at least.
But I wouldn't put too much weight on these overnight moves just yet.
So, you know, I'd personally be waiting until at least U.S. markets open later today.
That's the one thing that sucks about living in Europe is that U.S. market open is so fucking late. I'm going to bed before market closes. Anyways, I think that's
a good place to leave off. Like I said, we'll continue to do the videos in this fashion. I'll
just pre-record or sorry, I'll go live on Twitter here while I pre-record my YouTube video. And,
you know, if you want to join on in, then you're more than welcome to. And I think that's where we'll end it for today. I'd like to wish
everyone the best of best and hopefully see you tomorrow. Take care.
