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I Sold Over Half of My Crypto Portfolio
Recorded: March 25, 2025 Duration: 1:12:43Space Recording
Short Summary
The discussion covers various aspects of the crypto market, including trends in liquidity and recession risks, growth in sectors like AI and gaming, and innovations in cross-chain technology. There is a focus on the performance of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, as well as the potential for stealth liquidity to impact market dynamics. The conversation also highlights the decline in certain altcoin sectors and the strategic allocation of portfolios to navigate current market conditions.
Full Transcription
Okay, we are live.
Hello everyone, welcome back to another episode on the Virtual Bacon channel.
So today, I have sold 24 of the 36 out coins in my 100K crypto portfolio,
but not for the reason you think.
I know we are all taking a beating from the market, but I don't think the bull run is over.
In fact, I believe it hasn't even started yet, especially for Alcoins,
which is why I'm still keeping the same dollar amount in my overall portfolio.
However, I think it's time to hold fewer Alcoins for the long term.
So here's how I have consolidated my portfolio,
and more importantly, why I expect the top Alcoins to still pump later this year.
Okay, everyone, welcome back to the channel. If you're new here, my name is Dennis. I'm a crypto-angelo investor for the past six years and I have invested in over 100 crypto startups.
On this channel, I share views on market trends and investing strategy to build wealth in crypto.
Now, why did I sell most of the underperforming outcoins?
And you guys probably have a lot of questions.
Does this mean bacon is bearish?
Is he calling the top?
Not at all.
So while I believe the current liquidity situation is tricky,
it should be resolved this year.
The only reason that I want to make this portfolio consolidation is because it's currently very dangerous to start buying outcoins aggressively, especially low caps.
So the TLDR, before we get into it, is that the Fed has just slowed down quantitative easing, but it hasn't fully stopped yet.
We are on the right track, but this isn't the up-only season.
The Fed has to take multiple M-4-MC meetings to slow QT and stop quantitative easing, stop quantitative tightening, but maybe you can start QE.
However, Jerome Powell himself has come out and said that QE won't come easy this time.
So the Fed really needs an excuse to comply with the Treasury and Trump himself in order to still inject more liquidity into the system
while the inflation is still rising.
However, they are currently putting themselves in a cash-22 because we have declining GDP and a lot of recession fears.
So to make this full pivot coming from the Fed is going to be very difficult this year.
It's not like what a lot of people are expecting where we can simply front run the liquidity coming in.
That's unlikely and we are more likely to see more chop and even a credit event, some sort of banking collapse even before the money printer can be fully turned back on.
So I think it's very dangerous market right now, and that's why it's very important to take extra precaution in your portfolio.
I will have a detailed callback later in this video going over what I'm exactly seeing in liquidity and what I have covered in my last two live streams, as well some new updates that I have heard.
Okay.
especially around the revaluation of the gold in the U.S. Treasury situation,
and there are actually some significant updates there.
So I'll make sure to stick around to the end, as I'll be covering that in the end.
But without further ado, let me get into my current portfolio strategy
because that's what the title of this video is.
So very direct.
I'm going to give you my current portfolio breakdown,
and I have covered this on my Twitter already, along with...
pie charts and exactly what I'm thinking.
So my current thesis around a portfolio is that it is a time to not be holding low caps.
If there are any all coins that have just launched in the past year or very low in liquidity
and especially if they haven't survived at least one bear market, it's going to be very tough
to convince me that they can survive this last bit of chop in the market because this is going
to be the most violent period.
a ton of uncertainty, a ton of mismatch with market expectations, especially for crypto DGens
who are just trying to front run whatever possible, and the real macro conditions, which really
might catch them completely off guard as it tends to go extremely negative before it goes
back positive again.
So while I remain bullish in the same five categories
of all coins that I have held for the past two years,
AI, gaming, layer one, memes, and R2As.
However, each category I have condensed into just the one to two leaders that have survived multiple years.
I also have two defy all coins in my portfolio right now,
namely because they specifically stand out in a bearish time as they have utility that just outlasts the rest of the market.
And I'll show you that in a bit.
So there are still narrative traits to be made in low caps,
but I don't think they should be fitting into any sort of long-term portfolio,
not even for one month-long hold anymore.
So for the frequency that I make portfolio updates,
they just don't fit anymore.
So that's why my plan today is to revisit my portfolio,
see which coins have bounced a bit,
and consolidate them into a few long-term holdings.
So here's my current portfolio breakdown.
I currently have...
How many coins in here?
12 coins left.
So by a percentage category, they're still roughly the same.
I have 30% in Bitcoin, 25% in Ethereum, 28% in Solana.
I strive to have the same Ethereum to Solana ratio,
but it's just that Solana recovered a bit faster than Ethereum.
I have...
Small percent in meme small percent in defy AI gaming are a little bit larger stable coins
3.4 percent and there is a very small percentage of RWA's because
Honestly, there's not that many strong RWA all coins right now that are not overvalued but are still relevant and this is one sector that I'm still
Trying to add some exposure to my portfolio. That's the only area right now. Okay, so I
Let me get into these specific coins.
And let's start off with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zalana.
So what's really happening on the market is that Bitcoin is...
is not in any sort of worry whatsoever.
When you look at the past two, two and a half years of performance,
this is a solid uptrend on daily, on weekly.
And all you need to look at on Bitcoin is the long-term moving averages.
So the 20-day, sorry, the 20-week or 21-week exponential moving average
or the 20-week simple moving average, SMA, very simple.
This usually...
is the long-term support level.
So when you look on the weekly, here we have 20-week simple moving average,
and yes, and 50-week simple moving average is 75K.
So you see, although we are below the 20-week SMA,
21-week EMA is somewhere around 88K,
notice how this cycle, we simply have had more...
volatile corrections. So at times, the Bitcoin price actually came nearly all the way down to the
50-week SMA. So 50-week SMA in the July to September correction in 2024. That was at
53-54K, and you see the twice that it has touched this level. It bounced. Same thing over here.
So we didn't exactly touch 75K, but we went as low as 76. So,
Basically, on Bitcoin, it's just respecting the volatility of this cycle.
And this is clearly still an uptrend.
We haven't even gone as low as the last consolidation in 2024.
So the peaks of 2024 consolidation on weekly is at 71 to 73K.
So we didn't even go to last year's local high resistance, which now turned into support.
So really...
There is absolutely no point in selling Bitcoin right here.
Bitcoin is very strong.
I am not at all bearish on Bitcoin.
You should be holding your Bitcoin.
If anything, one takeaway, if you just want to hold an asset that's very easy for more upside, hold Bitcoin.
So that doesn't exactly translate to any other all coins.
Ethereum, Solana, anything, even large caps are all kind of iffy right now.
So let's look at Ethereum.
Ethereum is...
coming back down to retest the bare market breakout levels.
So you see all that price action that we had from
late 2023 to 24, that has been erased.
And we are now back down to test the bare market resistance levels right here.
So let me bring the brush up right here, here,
and even the last bull runs support levels,
So between 1700 to around 2100, there is a wide range of confluence for support resistance.
And you can even point out some smaller touches of this level.
So I would say right now is a good value range, but don't expect Ethereum to break out right away.
It's...
quite possible that we continue to chop something like this.
And this is not exactly bullish for short-term.
However, long-term, I think it's simply a matter of time.
Ethereum always catches up when the Fed pivots,
when there's global liquidity index beginning to up-trend,
and that's when you see...
ETH BTC ratio starting to trend up again,
leading the rest of the Alcoi market.
Now, a lot of people will say,
well, I cannot believe you're still bullish on ETH.
This is just simply my stance.
I have been bullish on ETH for five plus years now,
and I will continue to hold ETH.
Now, people often say, oh, look at Seoul.
Seoul has upperformed ETH this cycle.
That's true to some extent,
because Seoul will simply beat down
so bad in the bear market,
bottoming out at 10, but you look at the performance of Seoul from, you know, late
2023 for the past year, over 14 months now, that also has been erased. And Seoul is back down to
December 2020-3 levels. You look at ETH, this is October, November, 2023 levels. So I would say the drawdown of
Seoul USD
is showing really what's happening now, which is that not only do you have
ETH underperformance, but so is underperforming.
And a lot of large cap alcoins are underperforming Bitcoin as well.
So BTC, ETHBTC, most large cap versus BTC right now are downtrending.
Now, this doesn't mean it's all over, right?
So for itself, is holding long-term support at least.
When you look at 2024 support levels, even on the USD price pair,
this right around this $120 range held one to...
three, four, five, six, seven times.
And we did, recently dipped below it,
but starting to have a pretty interesting balance here,
at least.
It's a good range. It's a good value range, but again, don't expect even Solana itself to bounce super aggressively anytime soon until we have serious liquidity coming in.
A lot of people think their Al-Quain pick is somehow just super strong.
Especially, we have a new wave of people that are die-hard fans of Solana and hates Ethereum and thinks Solana is going to outperform the market no matter what.
I'm in the camp to think that Solana is in a very similar situation as Ethereum now.
Until liquidity comes in, I don't see Solana making new old-time highs either, very similar to Ethereum.
And both of them will likely at least chop versus Bitcoin ratio until liquidity conditions improve.
Because Solana is no longer super beat down or undervalued anymore.
Okay, but nonetheless, I still hold large percentage in Ethereum and Solana, currently 25% Eth, 30% Solana.
And in terms of other outcoins, I don't hold anything with more than 2.5% of my portfolio.
So out of the five different categories I have, so I have gaming, AI, R2DFI, MIMS.
In the layer one category, I don't even have anything right now.
I would say, ETH and Seoul, you are already getting much of that layer one exposure already.
I also have some other layer ones that are more dedicated, for example, dedicated towards AI, NIR, and BitTenser are both layer 1 protocols.
So I'm not too...
interested in taking a long-term exposure in any specific layer 1 coins just because they're
fitting into the layer 1 category because basically everyone is building a layer 1 blockchain nowadays.
So unless it's something very significant, like an RWA layer 1 that really stands out,
maybe that could be interesting.
But I'm bullish on layer 1, but not bullish on every layer 1.
But anyways, in each category, I have about between, you know, 3 to 4% of my portfolio.
So let's get into them.
First, we have the gaming category.
The two market leaders I have in my portfolio right now are superverse and beam.
So these are two outcoins that I have held for.
very long now. Super I've held for two years since the bear market lows and Beam I have followed even before their
migration from mirror circle. So both of these are
Infra projects
Layer 1 projects
with their tokens integrated into multiple gaming ecosystems
So super you know they have their token that's being integrated into every single game every single
even entertainment, Metaverse, whatever you want to call it, focused crypto economy right now.
And I just believe Super is the one coin you need to hold for gaming exposure.
It's very simple.
And also, what I like to point out, and one important criteria for which coins that I like holding in this...
volatile period is coins that have respected their bare market lows.
So what I mean by that is when you look at the chart of super and you go back, first of all,
this is a coin that have existed for four plus years now, which means tokenomics is really on our side.
And also, you look at bear market performance.
So 2022 to 2023 was really the peak depression of bear market prices.
What I'm really looking for is Alcoins that have held multiples of gains above their September to October,
2023 levels because remember, September, October, 23 was when Bitcoin really made its final
breakout, moving out of that 20 to 30k range and started the Bitcoin bull run. So for any Alcoins that
have held multiples on top of 2023 levels,
that's an all coin that still has a happy community.
So if you invest it in such an alcoin, you're still up.
So that leads to a very healthy, very long-term community.
They just simply see it as a bull market correction
instead of all the bear market,
the last bear to bull gains being erased.
So you really want to look for coins that have
these kinds of performance.
And super is really one that stands out because in the bear market, the bottoms, even the resistance
in the bottoms in 2023, it was like 20 cents, the highest.
We're still sitting at over 50 cents.
So very healthy range.
It's very easy to convince people that this is a bull market correction.
Right.
And this is one downside that I currently see on Beam, to be honest, because even though Beam has been just shipping a ton of updates, their chart is back down to October 2023 levels.
It's about 50% up from October 23, so not as, yeah, it hasn't done as well.
namely because the previous chart history is no longer visible where it was mirror circle.
So there is a bit more upside, but people can't really find those charts anymore.
So that's why I'm not so sure about what's happening with their price.
However...
you got to keep in mind beam is currently exposed to every single major project in the gaming industry
in crypto they have 230 million dollars in treasury and a lot of these venture investments
haven't even launched for example a major info project called sulfon that's uh recently going to
launch and you have tactical compute which uh ties into the AI deepen narrative uh atheir very uh
AI leading project that I believe is it was even incubated by Beam themselves and
held up really well. So all of this treasury tokens will be
soon feeding into the value flywheel of not only Beam but also the beam nodes.
So with these kinds of treasury and market cap sitting at 450,
Especially when FDB is not far away from market cap, it's honestly, I think it's a good value range.
So that's why I still hold beam.
I do want to see them quickly recover from these, you know, bare market levels, especially the launch levels.
So if we can get way higher than 0.4, 0.5 cents, let's get back to, you know, above 0.1 cent to 1.5 cent.
That would be really nice.
Okay, so that's gaming.
Okay.
Honestly, you can't find much value in gaming right now.
Every single all coin is down, especially hard in gaming,
which is why I think it's not the time to give up in gaming.
We know gaming is going to be one of those just potential sectors for killer applications in crypto,
but really nobody's talking about it anymore.
So, yeah, at least hold one to two infra projects in gaming.
I don't think you'll regret it.
Next up, we have AI.
So AI, two all coins that I have here,
NIR Protocol and BitTencer.
Again, two very long-term infra projects,
both Ler1 blockchains.
Near Protocol I've held for, I want to say,
one and a half years.
BitTencer I've held for over two years now.
So when you look at their prices,
also very interesting,
fits into my thesis of a,
strong price performance.
So when you look at near protocol,
respecting the October to November bear market lows.
So the bare market lows was between one to do $1.5.
Currently, 2.9, not bad.
Holding over 2x from 2023 levels.
So you still have happy holders.
and NIR today has already fully pivoted from their, you know,
Defi, Ler1 blockchain to the blockchain for AI.
And they have the technical capabilities to back it up.
And of course, you have BitTensor.
Let me see if I can find, yeah, you have BitTensor,
of course, holding way above their bear market levels,
40 to $80 in the bear.
now still sits at 260.
It didn't even erase the lows that we have made in 2024,
which was at 220.
So held above that,
this means all your token holder base are still very happy.
And very interesting, something that I still haven't dug into
is the reason launch of dynamic tau.
I believe this is involving subnet tokenization,
although don't quorum on that.
I'm still needing to do the research on this,
but I think this is,
From what I've heard from the buzz around this,
this has been one of the biggest upgrades for BitTensor
that's been coming for a while.
So look out for this.
I'll try to do a deeper dive on this, maybe on Twitter.
So currently, BitTensor 1.8% of my portfolio,
near protocol, 1.4%.
This is all the AI exposure I have.
So I don't have any more AI agents,
AI application layer, not even D-PIN because simply put,
It has been way to overplayed, way too saturated in the past six months, especially with this AI agent crates.
So you got to be particularly careful when it comes to AI agent alcoins because most AI agent all coins came about in the last six months, which means you have a holder base that's very...
mercenary and are trying to take profit as soon as possible.
So look out for that.
You don't have anyone that's been an AI agent's fan
longer than one year from this point,
which means none of them have survived a bear market before.
Okay, next up, in the RWA category, the only one Alcoin I have right now is Axilar.
So this is the infra project that powers most cross-chain liquidity for onboarding real-world assets,
especially from institutions, into chains that not exactly retail use for trading, but more for tokenization.
So price-wise, not the best looking one,
bare market lows, 30 cents, currently 40 cents.
I really want them to start trying to recoup some of that,
you know, bare market consolidation.
As far as tokenomics goes, I believe all of the private investor tokens have fully unlocked by December 2024, which means it's all in the community's hands.
So I do think it's a good time.
But I'm not sure exactly why they couldn't be able to hold even the last year's rallies.
It's kind of weird.
Yeah, this is one caveat that I'm still kind of a question mark in my mind.
But when it comes to integrations, I think they have some of the most interesting liquidity integrations.
So when you have a cross-chain infra project like, you know, ChainLink or Layer Zero, usually they serve Defi and Cryptonatives.
However, when it comes to Axelart, they really have pitted themselves right.
towards RWA. So not only do they have enterprise and infra clients coming from Microsoft, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank,
monetary authority of Singapore, skips on my mind, they have done a couple more pilot programs
with other authorities as well. But they are one of the only...
I believe the only infra that integrates some of the institution-driven chains.
So hear me out.
We have chains like the XRP Ledger, Stellar Lumens, Tone Network, Sui, they were some,
I believe they are still the only chain that integrates, only cross-chain protocol that integrates SRP Ledger,
plugging it into tokenization stack.
And stellar lumens, like, think about anyone on CT that uses XRPL or stellar lumens.
Nobody. However, there are huge amounts of liquidity and just overall interest for institutions to use these chains.
And that's what XLR prides themselves in doing.
So I think this is one project that really skips the mind of crypto Twitter audience,
but I think they have a lot of potential, especially if RWA continues to grow like I expect.
Back here as well, they are, you see, the integrating momentum blockchain, which is, I believe, a private blockchain launched by MAS and either one of the central banks of some government, don't call me on that, it's either that or JPMorgan themselves.
But these private blockchains and blockchains that have a lot, a ton of.
institutional liquidity is what Axler is targeting.
And that's why I still hold them.
So I really want to target infra projects in categories,
categories that I believe in for the long term.
In this case, RWA.
So that's the only all coin I have in RWA right now,
1.5% of my portfolio.
So I have quite a bit of stable coin exposure right now in Teter for 3%.
This is a...
decent chunk of my, you know, just overall portfolio, obviously not in the exact same dollar
amount, that I plan to put into more RWA-focused projects. So I have started to discuss with
a bunch of projects, researching them on Twitter recently, looking to add one to two more
quality RWA projects to position in for this next wave. Main criteria is there being
they have to fit my thesis.
They can't be new projects launched in just the past year.
I don't want multiple billion dollars of crazy FDVs.
You know, like over 10 billion in FDVs.
Some of these RWA projects are getting to crazy valuations.
However, I also don't want low caps.
I don't want any project that only have a website and just token that says it's RWA without any, you know,
compliance or licenses that's proven that they have business clients.
And also they need to be ideally coming from a fund manager angle,
onboarding clients first, instead of just trying to push their token as a RWA token.
So a lot of these RWA projects right now are doing...
you know, layer one blockchains for R2As,
which is a cool idea,
but I think what's more interesting is
how many clients can they bring in
in terms of institutions to tokenize their assets
on top of their layer one blockchains?
That's what really matters.
So I'm looking to onboard one to two more projects
into my portfolio.
Let's see what I can find.
They're not gonna be low caps,
but I also don't want multiple billions.
Anyways, looking for a bit more RWA exposure.
And lastly, I have a few more niche projects that I have covered before.
First of all, we have Ampleforth.
The easiest way to track the performance of Ampleforth is with the chart of Wrapped Ampleforth.
So you see, price-wise, holding quite well, currently over $7,
with the bare market levels between 2 to, let's say, $5 to $7.
So if you count from October, 2023 levels, it's still over 2x, quite decent levels.
So the reason why I still hold Amphi 4th is that I've known this project for over four and a half years now since D5 summer.
So they were one of the first projects that I got into in 2020 D5 summer.
And namely, the reason why I still hold them right now is because Ample 4th is really the
engine that drives a low volatility alternative to what people usually, the two polar opposites
in the crypto market, which is you either have super high volatility when it comes to, you
know, just holding direct Alcoin or even Bitcoin exposure versus many people just hold
stable coins.
So a lot of times you end up with a Alcoin that either goes super high performance or
you have to hold stables.
What Ampleforth prized themselves in doing is that there are two ways you can gain exposure to Ampleforth.
You can either hold Ample or hold staked Ample for higher volatility, which is the kind of performance you see on Wrapped Ampleforth, or under the hood, you can hold their spot flat coin, which is a coin that has much lower volatility, but offers relatively high yield for a pseudo-stable coin.
So when you go on the website for Spot, so you see that Spot currently has over 30% APY and around 5% plus or minus volatility.
So this is really what makes this project interesting.
Not only is it a...
volatile growth engine in a bullish period, but also the spot flat coin part of the ecosystem of Ampleforth
still holds its TVL, which holds its value, which still contributes to holding up the price of
Ampleforth in corrections. And that's why you see...
Ampleforth, although it dipped to as low as 5.5, it's still not back to 2023 bear market levels.
A lot of that is driven by $10 million of not much, honestly, TVL currently sitting in the spot protocol.
So even if people want to take profit, they just go into the spot flat coin and that still keeps the protocol afloat.
So this is why this is one project that I really don't want to worry about too much.
You can hold ample fourth in a volatile period that you believe the price can go up,
or you can hold the spot flat coin and farm it against USDC for a decent amount of ATY in a choppy period.
Yeah, so this is one project that I hold in my portfolio.
And I would say it's defy, but they are really shifting more towards a fixed yield, low volatility, high yield low volatility asset that really fits into partly RWA, partly stable, a high yield stable coin category.
So you might have heard of a stable coin that has blown up a.
quite recently called USDAF or asymmetry finance,
that protocol offers really high yield on top of their stable coin,
and underneath the asymmetry finance protocol is actually Ampleforth,
which is driving that high yield.
Okay, so that's Ampleforth, currently at 1.1% of my portfolio, a smaller amount.
And then we have Swissborg. So Swissborg, again,
is a project that have survived multiple cycles.
Let me see if I can show you the chart.
Yeah, so Swiss work has existed since 2018.
Now, if we look at just the 2023 bear market levels,
by October to November, 2023, we were sitting at 12 to 17 cents.
So currently price isn't doing that well, but at least
nobody is underwater and you see an overall up trend that's currently happening.
So most token holder base are still happy.
And the big reason why Swiss Borg is holding quite well is because they have a
meta-dex, you can call it centralized exchange, but it's half centralized exchange,
half mobile app for DFI.
So because the Borg token trades very...
pretty much only on Solana and on their own application, there isn't that much price volatility on this coin,
unlike most all coins that trade heavily on perpetuals and on futures markets, where there's high liquidation risk.
And on top of that, there's a lot of opportunities that you can get by holding the Borg token.
For example...
you can get access to, honestly, one of the only places, one of the only exchange aggregators on the Solana ecosystem that still has upside.
Other than Jupiter, on the Solana ecosystem, the only other liquidity aggregator is Swissborg's Metadex.
And when you compare Swissborg 200 million FDV versus Jupiter, which is currently sitting still over 10 billion, there's a huge gap.
So that's number one.
Number two, you have a ton of opportunities in the Swissborg app if you have used it before.
So I highly recommend you guys to check it out.
It's only exclusive to...
their community members.
For example, some of the tokens that I have gotten into,
which were doing really well in the past year,
X-Borg token launched using Swiss Borg,
using the technology of Borgpad,
which is a fair launch way of launching tokens.
And this is things that you can directly access by using the Borg token.
Now, all of this feed into the token value itself, which is why, you know, this isn't a token that necessarily...
has huge swings where you're constantly trading it, but by holding it and
staking in the app and participating in their token launches, I'm personally getting a lot of value and that's why I have Swiss Borg in my portfolio and
I really like the way that they do
the support that they give to projects that launch with them, especially on Solana because like I
When you have projects that launch on Solana that go to the Jupiter routes,
where you have a meme coin-like launch with a, you know, sniping their own tokens.
It's just, it's not a good look.
So I, for one, like their model a lot better.
So that's why it's more of a utility play, and that's why I still hold Borg in my portfolio,
1.2% allocation right now.
Okay.
Last but not least, meme coin category, very simple.
I don't have any other memes other than pay pay now.
Pay pay is the one meme coin that I have held since, I want to say, like, early 2020.
I think we held since it was under 500 mil market cap.
And back then, the only three that I was holding was Dogecoin, Shib, and Pepe.
So far, Doge and Shib hasn't had much of a rally.
PeiPay still on its upward trajectory.
Obviously, it's still way higher than the bear market levels because it's relatively newer coin launched in...
It was earlier than here.
It was earlier than April 2023, I think.
Anyways, so...
Let me see if I can find the actual dates that I have held this coin because I don't think it's early 2023.
It must have been earlier than that.
Oh man, this is way back.
Here, meme coins, meem.
Pepe was not back here.
Yeah, so it was back around here and when was this?
People.
This was August.
Okay, August 2023.
back here and Doge ship Pepe.
Honestly, I just like the Pepe meme.
Yeah, 420 mil market cap.
That makes sense.
Roughly the number that I remember.
So honestly, meme coins, they will have its cycle
and memes will continue to be a sector,
but way too many people take advantage of meme coin launches now.
Yeah, it's just not worth playing most of these new memes.
So I just hold Pepe.
Even a lot of these AI agent coins, they are now like AI agent memes.
So yeah, any other meme that I play probably will only be a short-term trade instead of holding for multiple months.
So pay pay I still hold.
It's been not two years yet, actually, one and a half years, but I will still continue to hold it.
Okay, pay pay 1.6%. That's about it of meme exposure that I need to have in my portfolio.
Don't need much more than that.
So that's my current portfolio breakdown. And you can see all my portfolio updates in the link in the description, link in my Twitter.
And also I have all my update locks. So the last update that I made was five days ago.
I covered this at the same time on my Twitter as well. You should follow me there.
if you want the fastest updates.
So here are the coins that I've sold at which prices,
and here are the increases that I have made
in order to get to the current portfolio percentages.
Okay, so moving past my current portfolio,
When do I expect all coins to make a bounce back?
Everything depends on global liquidity right now.
So I'll just give you a quick summary of what you need to know about global liquidity and how do you watch it.
So global liquidity, as it stands today, is not money printer alone.
It's not the M2 money supply index.
That's not accurate.
You actually need to track three places, which are all very similar.
So the...
most accurate place with the most detailed data is by Capital Wars.
I subscribe to their substack, although it's quite expensive, it's over 100 bucks a month.
But Michael Howe is one of the forefront researchers of global liquidity, the concept itself.
And he makes a global liquidity update piece about once a week.
where he tracks not only central bank liquidity, but also private liquidity and dollar liquidity.
And TLDR here is that global liquidity is rising slowly, and based on the typical five to six year cycles, it
they expected to peak around Q4 this year.
So we still have some upside to go.
However, from now until Q4, something really could happen because things are drying up.
And if we don't have the Fed step in, it's going to get very ugly.
And this fits into a lot of the things that I have been covering in my research as well.
So in my last two videos on the live streams,
This one right here and this one right here. I've covered Trump's promises and the risks of recession and also what FMC has recently announced when it comes to QEQT.
So the summary there is that the Fed anticipates stopping QT in mid-2020 right here. However,
Jerome Powell has directly said that he is not able to restart QE until
until interest rates is at 0 percent. So I'm not sure if I can yeah right here. So we cannot
have QE restart in the same way that we had in 2020 or even in 2018. So
it is impossible to restart QE because rates cannot be at zero.
We still have rates at over 3.8% right now and increasing, decreasing very, very slowly.
So this...
Altogether means that Ethereum, Solana, all other major alcoins, not even smaller alcoins,
those will be much more volatile, but even larger outcoins will continue to bleed against Bitcoin,
at least chop against Bitcoin, until the Fed can step in with their balance sheet or some other way of
shadow QE, you know, secret stealth QE that can actually boost global liquidity.
And you combine that with the current recession risk.
So the market is pricing in about a 32% chance that we have a recession this year on
Polymarket.
And when it comes to macro analysts estimates for recession,
right?
By this month, by March to April, we're currently sitting at between 50 to 58%.
And by the summer months of August, we are potentially going to increase to 61% chance of a recession.
Now, you have to know how to interpret this data.
This data means, and it should be read as the probability that the government agencies will declare a recession within this period retroactively.
This is how recession dating works.
When you have a high probability of the economy being in a recession, like this data that you see right here, since December 2020, we have had the probability of recession.
as high as 47% and it has always been above 45% for, what is this, one half years now.
So a lot of people say, oh yeah, like we have been clearly in a recession.
You might not be wrong.
So how the government agencies works is that when they announce a recession, they don't announce
we start the recession today.
Instead, they have all the ability to say,
maybe even tomorrow, they can come out and say that,
oh, based on the data that we have collected
over the last 12 to 18 months,
we tell you that we have been in a recession
since December, 2023, until April 2025.
They can totally say that.
And that's how recession dating works.
So don't be surprised if all of this past probability data
ends up being true.
However, what this data really tells us is that
because of the drawing up of liquidity from now until October this year,
if we still don't have a recession by October of this year, something
must have already changed fundamentally when it comes to liquidity because either the Fed has to have stepped in or some other
Secret stealth QE must have
Started otherwise chances are some major credit events going to happen where banks are going to break and the bond market is going to break
So that's really what this
Recession probability curve is telling me which is that I
If the federal agencies come out and they intend to declare a recession to give the Fed a way to ease using this excuse, we could expect it to see it happen from now until October.
But if they do not announce this until then, then they probably have missed their window.
And in that case, likely the Fed has to fold even without the risk of a recession actually happening.
So this is how you can actually interpret this data, which leads to a very dangerous situation now.
So we know the timing is that by Q4 of this year, liquidity has to come in.
Either the Fed folds and announces the restart of QE or some sort of stealth QE can come in in some other way.
Maybe the Treasury does something.
Maybe the executive branch does something.
I'll show you some possibilities in a bit.
But either way, the timeline is like this.
However, this last phase is going to be very volatile.
Because if you try to front run it right now, you might just be caught at the worst time possible where you're trying to front run it.
But it needs to crash before it comes back up again.
That's totally possible.
So just be aware of that.
That's what this recession risk curve tells me.
Okay, so if the Fed announces a real QE pivot, when can it happen?
Well, here are the next few FLMC meetings.
May 6th, June 17th, July 29, September 16th, by October, most likely, you know, we would know.
So the next four meetings, very crucial.
But if the Fed doesn't announce anything, what can actually happen?
How do we get this liquidity without
formally announcing QE, but still making sure that the economy doesn't go into a recession,
making sure the banking system doesn't break.
So there are a few ways.
Number one is something called the supplementary leverage ratio.
This is an idea that was, this is a major tool that was used in the 2020 pandemic,
where the SLR ratio is basically a,
ratio that determines how much banks in the US
needs to hold in terms of their cash
versus how much leverage exposure that they have
over tier one capital.
So tier one capital, not, sorry,
not tier one capital,
tier one capital being liquidity
versus their total leverage exposure
in the assets that they hold.
So in 2020,
The SOR ratio was specifically made as an exemption.
to exclude U.S. Treasury securities.
So this essentially meant that U.S. banks could buy up infinite amounts of U.S. government treasuries
without requiring any sort of cash to backstop it.
This specifically was made an exemption in the COVID pandemic,
The effect of this in April 2020 was that by removing cash and treasuries from the SRDenominator, the Fed, lower the amount of capital banks needed to hold against treasuries, which allowed...
banks to free up their balance sheets to support the treasury market.
It's effectively indefinitely.
So the Fed has the ability to do this.
And they haven't said that they aren't going to do this.
So this is one way that they can do, which will definitely support the bond market, the treasury market.
So this is one way that sits outside of the Fed's balance sheet pivot.
It's technically not QE.
It's stealth QE.
The other way that a lot of people have said is
the revaluing of gold.
So I have covered this concept before,
but I really want to bring your attention to my friend Elios' last video.
So he actually showed this piece of research
that's directly coming from the Treasury Secretary Scott Besant,
and he actually denied this completely.
So before going into this piece,
Here it is, he is Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary of the U.S.
So there's this concept that a lot of people have been floating around,
which is that the U.S. can revalue their holdings of gold in Fort Knox.
So currently, the statutory, the official price of gold against the U.S. dollar is very low, whereas the
Market price of gold is over $3,000.
The official price is somewhere between like 40 to 70.
Don't call me on that, but it's under $100.
So by revaluing the gold against the U.S.
dollar, the U.S. can not only create a large credit line for themselves, but also devalue the dollar.
So drive down the Dixie, the dollar index, and by...
decreasing the strength of the dollar,
they can also increase liquidity this way.
So a lot of people I've been floating around the Treasury potentially doing this.
But the head of the treasury, Scott Basson himself came in on the All In podcast and said this.
So let me just play with this right now.
For the American people, not just debt.
So he wants to take the debt down.
And then this idea of assets, there was a lot of talk about this economic deal we're going to do with Ukraine.
That would have gone in the sovereign wealth fund.
Right.
The other day where the sovereign wealth fund was announced, President Trump surprised me in the Oval and said,
could you make a few remarks?
And I said, well, we're going to mobilize the asset side of the balance sheet.
And all the gold books said, he's going to revalue the gold.
I can say today, we're not revaluing the gold.
Yeah.
See, that's actually such a big piece of signal that I haven't heard anyone else talk about.
He's the one that makes the decisions as to what happens with the Treasury holdings of the U.S.
And he directly states here, they're not going to revalue the gold.
So this is out of the question.
So what does this mean?
Well,
It's not going to be easy to track.
So there's not going to be any sort of formal announcement coming from the treasury that says,
oh, we're revaling the gold.
Look, we're going to drive down the price of the dollar against gold.
And, you know, you guys are all correct.
And, you know, this has freed up, blah, blah,
amounts of liquidity.
They're not doing it.
Straight up he has said it right here. So instead what they're going to do is much more nuanced. It's around the sovereign wealth fund
It's around investing with the sovereign wealth fund and making the liquidity appear in some way by doing deals with the sovereign wealth fund and that's going to be much harder to track
So this is a big piece of signal that
tells me
they are trying to do something when it comes to creating liquidity in a stealthy way that's outside
of QE, that's outside of the Fed, and instead coming from the Treasury Department and the Oval Office
themselves, something around the Summer Walth Fund, but not directly working with and revaluing the
gold like people expect, which means
It's going to be hard to track.
And if you have been waiting for this signal to happen,
waiting for Scott Besson to announce something,
and then you can expect liquidity to rise very sharply,
that's not going to happen.
So this introduces another piece of uncertainty in the market.
Yes, this shadow liquidity will come,
but who is going to be able to track it properly?
I'm not confident in tracking it properly.
I follow this stuff every day.
Every day I read all the news around global liquidity, around, you know, what the Treasury is doing, what the Fed is doing.
I'm not able to predict what they're going to do here and when they're going to do it.
So all in all, this goes to show you that it's the summary here, which is that,
By the end of this year, some form of hidden QE of stealth money printing, stealth liquidity
will come.
But it will be difficult to measure.
So you need to at least be tracking two things.
Number one, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet on Trading View.
If this can tick up, great.
That's QE starting.
If this doesn't take up.
Then you can track global liquidity index, which takes into account all central banks that matter.
You know, the USFED, the PBOC, Bank of Japan, ECB, and others that matter.
So this is still downtrending.
Hopefully we can see this to uptrend.
But even then, if these two liquidity metrics do not trend up, there can still be some form of stealth queue.coms.
which we don't understand.
So that just goes to show you like it'll be very hard to front-run this event until it happens.
Until it is very clear, it will be very difficult to try to track some news and trade against it.
So I would say at least be measuring these.
Do all the research that you can.
Maybe go ahead and follow, you know, Capital Wars by Michael Howe.
This is, he is one expert that I believe will be able to give me this signal if, you know,
Scott Betzen comes out and does something, he will make an interpretation right away.
But it is a very weird and uncertain time ahead with the retroactive dating of the recession.
And in the meantime, crypto Twitter and the market, you know, face-level participants expecting some sort of firework announcement that tells you,
oh, just go ahead and ape into your coins again.
They're not going to do that. They're not going to give you a clear signal like that.
The Fed has explicitly stated that they cannot do QE, not in the easy way that we expect.
So most market participants will be disappointed by the liquidity increase not coming in the obvious way.
And ironically, this means they are likely to sell at the worst time because they don't know that this liquidity will not be so easily satisfied.
seen and they will just all of a sudden believe all prices are going down some recession
you know like announcement comes out and they say oh actually you know we were all wrong things
are going to zero and that probably is the actual time that the stealth QE can start which means a lot
of people are going to ironically sell at the worst time possible so this is why I believe it's the
best to stay the course right now and hold
long-term outcoins that you believe in, that you have seen respect the bear market lows,
because no matter what happens, we can't get much worse than FTX level of liquidity squeeze.
And if you can hold coins that you are comfortable holding even since the last bear in 2022 and 23,
this next three to six months of chop is going to be worth it.
it, you will be able to survive.
So don't try to front run some liquidity news event
and don't try to ape into low caps
because that puts you at the risk of getting burnt
by this potential crisis that's being manufactured
with the combination of confusing liquidity news
that most people won't be able to catch.
And you will be forced to sell at the worst time
if you take on too much risk for short-term outcoins.
Okay, so that's all the analysis and just last a bit of updates in terms of my current strategy.
So outside of my long-term holdings in my portfolio videos and my updates,
I'm going to putting, I'm going to be putting out narrative traits,
just as direct live streams and probably just more often on Twitter directly.
So follow me there if you want actually, you know, short-term stuff.
For anything that catches my eye for, you know, a couple weeks at a time, I'm not going to be putting them in my long-term portfolio because the market is simply bipolar.
It's swinging in both directions.
You could make trades and I do still trade, but I'm not going to be holding any of these longer than one month.
So maybe I'll be making trading.
based live streams, but they are only going to be trading based from now on.
I'm not going to be mixing the portfolio aspect with the trading aspect.
So you have something for both crowds.
Sonic had a season, you know, two months ago, and then right now we have a BNB, BSE, uh,
Wave. I've been tweeting about that a lot because Binance themselves, CZ are coming out and supporting
Honestly low-cap meme coins that are launching on BNB
But these coins usually run the course less than two to three days at a time
So you really you can be holding these and there's no point in calling them portfolio
in any way so they're not portfolio
Anyways, that's how I'll be separating my content from now on, so you guys don't get the wrong message.
There are still low-cap trades, but they're very short-term.
Long-term, follow my portfolio, and I don't plan to be moving my portfolio much more until this chop is over.
I'll be it, you know, I'm looking to add some RWA exposure, but that's about it.
Only like three more percent of my portfolio in terms of exposure.
Okay, that's it. And that's everything I have prepared for today. Let's do a bit of Q&A. I'm sure people have questions. Let's see here. How long are we? Oh, wow, we are already one hour in. Let's see. Yeah, I don't read comments while I'm presenting, but we do have Q&A at the very end. Let's see.
I don't think this is a live stream but a pre-recorded video.
That's why he never reads the comments.
I read comments, but I cut them out once I end the live stream because, I mean, nobody wants to watch like, I don't know, I don't like having the live streams too long.
It doesn't help the videos stay long term.
But we have a session usually like five, ten minutes at the end.
VB, is there a reason why you haven't picked ChainLink or ICP as for RWA?
ICP isn't really RWA.
It's more like D-P-P or AI versus RWA.
Chainlink is RWA.
Chainlink is fine.
It's reasonable.
It will do just fine.
So well, you know, many other top 20 coins.
So I would say if you are interested in top 20 coins that have survived, you know, past...
two cycles, they're fine, like XRP, Cardano, even like B&B, Tron.
I wouldn't do Pocod, but Tong, you know, Chainlink, Evax.
All these coins are fine, but I would just much rather like save the headache that they bring me
right now and just hold Ethereum and Solana. But yeah, you'll be fine there.
Brad says, why sell now?
So see, like a lot of people are going to take the title and the thumbnail
and then skip right to the comments and complain.
I get it.
Like, people don't want to watch the videos, but I'm not selling it.
So I have 100K portfolio, usually 60% Bitcoin Ethereum, Solana, 40% all coins.
It's still 60% Bitcoin Ethereum, Salana, 40% altcoins.
Just a bit more Ethereum, Solana, less number of all coins, but still fully exposed.
So I'm not selling to stable out.
I'm selling low caps going into high caps.
That's my play here.
Uh, okay, let's see. Nick Porsche says, what's up with goat? I don't know, man. Like, it looks so promising. Same as like Fartcoin. It's recovered quite a bit, but honestly, these AI memes, AI agents slash memes are, their performance has just been so weird. I'm really not sure how to read them. Um, yeah, I don't know if I should treat them as memes or AI.
And do they have more staying power than AI-infra in AI?
And then if there are memes, like, are they more relevant than pay-pay?
Clearly not.
So Farquine is recovering quite decent, but gold is just like, I lost so much money on gold.
So I don't even want to, don't even want to think about it anymore, to be honest.
Why Ethereum?
Simply put, Ethereum has always pumped when liquidity finally came in when it comes to risk-on, risk-off periods.
It pumped in 2019 and pumped in 2021.
No reason to say this time is different.
And...
A lot of people like to pick on Ethereum because they compare it to Solana.
But again, like just watch the initial part of this video.
You'll see that Solana in 2024 has similar performance to Ethereum.
Simply put like Solana was just undervalued, but that doesn't make Solana today still undervalued versus Ethereum.
I think the two are pretty fair in terms of their market dominance and the position that they're at.
Until there is more liquidity, I don't think Ethereum is particularly bad investment versus Bitcoin or Solana is particularly much better of an investment.
Both are just okay right now.
Any insight on XRP? IsRP is interesting. I am considering including XRP in my long-term portfolio for the first time ever, actually. I'm considering it because XRP has actually won their lawsuit officially against the SEC. It's not a security anymore. The XRP ETFs will come.
100%. It's just a matter of time. And one of my closest buddies who I've been investing with for
like three, four years, he's been just a huge bowl of XRP. And there are a lot of things underneath
that I've been studying. So I think it could be playing now. So I'm just trying to still build
my thesis around XRP, but...
It's getting to a status where you shouldn't ignore it.
It's no longer just that startup like Alcoin or CBDC like Alcoin.
It's in its own category of a market sector.
And in terms of like regulatory status, BTC, ETH, you have like BTC alternatives, like, you know, Doge, like coin.
You have ETH alternatives like ETH.
Ethereum Classic, Seoul isn't even there yet.
Like, Seoul hasn't gotten that full, you know, spot ETF, non-security treatment like XRP.
So XRP is kind of its own sector now in terms of regulatory clarity.
It's actually getting very interesting.
Let's see.
Can we see Boron by the end of this year?
We really need to see it.
If we don't see it by the end of this year,
I don't know, like, I would be pretty depressed.
I'm already pretty depressed by how delayed this bull run has been.
And if it's another nine months of delay, like, I don't know how many people can survive.
XRP relatively strong in this correction.
Yeah, it is.
Like, XRP is one of those coins in the top 20 that actually held better than Solana.
Like, simply put.
So, yeah.
i regret not buy xrp when it was 50 cents for years yeah so my friend um who was a honestly
the only xrp whale i know he didn't buy yeath or so he bought xrp when it was 50 cents and he's just
been showing us over the last two years like with this uh you know um black rock situation the
lawsuit situation cbdc situation um and he was right so chat why he sold half of his portfolio well
Rewind, I sold half of the portfolio that are in low caps and put them into high caps and BTC.
Simply put.
Let's see.
Well, BTC go back down to 80K.
When can I add to my portfolio?
Let's see.
I'll take this as a last question here.
So I would say without looking at the chart beforehand, so really don't want us to revisit this lower range between like 55 to 73, but 80 is...
is like higher than these two lows. So I wouldn't be surprised if we go to 80. That would still be higher low.
So usually a three strike pattern, one, two, three, this is very typical pattern. And you can have like three lows equal,
or you can have like technically a little bit of inverse head and shoulders. It's all possible if we go down to 80k and just bounce.
And I do want to say that you look at weekly, this 50-week SMA,
as long as we hold above this, 76, right, we make another wick as the 50-week SMA catches up.
Let's say 50-week SMA goes to like 77, 78, 78, we go back to 80, we bounce, that would be nice.
That would be very similar to what we had here.
Lower, lower, higher low, right? Low, lower, lower, lower, higher, low.
So don't rule that out.
This cycle, the volatility has been very interesting because it's no longer 20-21-week
SMA, it's 50-week SMA that could potentially get WIC to.
So that still wouldn't be the end of the world.
And I would say if you're like holding your breath and you,
I wouldn't give you the guarantee that we'll get 80K,
but if we get to 80K, I would be more than happy to buy.
Like, whatever I have in my portfolio right now, I would be more than happy to buy more.
Okay, that's it.
Thank you guys for joining a live stream.
If you like this content, subscribe to the channel, share this video with a friend.
And if you want more content like this, especially for short-term trades that are no longer going to go into my portfolio updates every once a month.
Follow me on Twitter at Virtual Bacon ZeroX.
where I drop day-to-day alpha, especially with like this B&B stuff,
with how they are listing B&B all coins on Binance Alpha,
and they have a pump within one week and just die out.
I'm not going to make videos on them because, I mean, by the time you see the videos, they're already over.
So you got to find them on Twitter.
Maybe sometimes I'll make live streams if the timing is right.
So yeah, that's only for short-term trading content from now on.
Okay, and check out link in the description for our trading community called The Coiners.
We're trying to revamp that with more AI content, trading content in there as well.
We have mentors, we have portfolio updates.
We also have a trenches section if you trade on chain, both on telegram and on our own website
community that you can chat with myself and other mentors and other investors.
Yeah, thank you guys for watching and I will see you on the next video and the next live stream.
Bye-bye.
