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If You FOMO, You’ll Lose Money! [CRYPTO WARNING]
Recorded: March 20, 2025 Duration: 0:19:02Space Recording
Short Summary
Bitcoin's price is showing signs of resilience, currently at $85,600, as the market reacts positively to uncertain news. With the Fed maintaining interest rates and historical trends suggesting buying opportunities, traders are keenly observing potential rebounds and shifts in market sentiment.
Full Transcription
at $85,600 and this is off of the FOMC which came out yesterday and quite an interesting response
from both the crypto markets and the stock markets for the simple reason that Jerome Powell wasn't
dovish and he wasn't hawkish he was confused. So in today's show we're going to talk about what
this means for the markets and it's one of the first things that we've seen or the first times
that we've seen the market
react positively to uncertain news.
Remember the theme for the last couple of months
has been positive news comes out, market goes down.
Negative news comes out, market goes down even more.
Neutral news comes out, market goes down.
This is the first time that we've seen a shift
in that sentiment where the market went up
off of confusing news.
So let's get straight into it. You can see over here from the banter bubbles the majority of
the coins or stocks at least excuse me are rebounding they up on the week over
there and if we do go through to crypto as well we're also seeing a pretty
sizable bounce right. So let's get straight into the show content. Yesterday
I did highlight the reclaim and the swing failure pattern on the 12 hour timeframe,
coming back into the Monday low over there
and suggesting that you could see as high as a move up
all the way to $90,000,
which would have been an 8.57% move.
And if you look over here, how far did we get?
Well, we got 6%, we got a 6.19% move.
I think it's absolutely insane to have
longed into an uncertain economic decision where the theme has been that the market is reacting
negatively of any kind of news. But nevertheless, DJs will be DJs. And for those of you that did
play the long side, congratulations. I definitely wouldn't have shorted this though. And you can see a lot of the move was driven
in the form of a short squeeze, right?
If you can see over here, the last 24 hours of liquidations,
257 million worth of those liquidations
were short getting squeezed out of the market.
So clearly there were a lot of people
which were also short and the market was moving up.
Yesterday I was tracking as well the open interest
and you could see the open interest rising
in the very, very short term with longs building up.
So they got paid, right?
The gamble paid off for those who took that actual trade.
So squeezing out a lot of the shorts,
capturing their stop losses over here on the top side
as price moved all the way up into that $87,000 region.
Now you can see that you have a swell of liquidity,
which is hovering below price action over here
in the $83,500 region.
Now you're gonna be on high-low watch, right?
So for the first time you have the opportunity
for some of the low timeframe trends
to actually begin to change towards the upside,
putting in those higher lows and higher highs.
But the high timeframe trends at least remain completely
unchanged. We are 100% still in a downtrend when it comes to the high timeframe. So we'll have a
look at that as well. We'll see what would be required to shift that. So if IMC is out the way,
Fed Funds Rate remains completely unchanged, which was 100% probability that they were not gonna cut interest rates, and therefore it remains at 4.5%.
If you look at the next meeting,
well, now you have an 83.3% chance
that it's gonna remain again exactly the same.
So, let's have a look over here.
Ben Cowen suggesting, or at least retweeting,
what Jerome Powell said over there.
The committee will slow the pace of decline
of its securities holdings by reducing
the monthly redemption cap on treasury securities
from 25 billion to five billion.
So this is where all the excitement came into the market.
Some view this as quantitative tightening ending.
It's not in fact the case, it hasn't ended. Not at all. It's just they
tightening less, right? So they're slowing down. They're slowing down the tightening
process how aggressive they've been. And this can take a long time. They said, you know,
at least they're going to hold those interest rates for very, very, very long. So they're
going to slow down the rate cuts very, very slowly over time. It's gonna it's this is a process, right?
This could take pretty much the entire year. I have an on tech underneath straightaway all in on it
Well, have a look at the ETH chart as well in today's show
So if you look here from Seth as well, this is essentially showing the one month decline
Being one of the worst that we've seen
22 trading days pretty much of straight down,
negative 15% on the NASDAQ over there.
And each time we've had the decline this bad,
it did end up being a buying opportunity
for the one month decline.
This is looking at the magnificent seven.
So the top seven stocks in the S&P 500.
And consequently, that is why
you are getting a bit of a rebound.
Now the question is, does that rebound set in a lower high or not?
I think this is the trillion dollar question that market participants all around the world
will be looking at.
So we'll have a look at that.
We'll look at the stock market as well.
Bitcoin cycle bottom return on investment.
This is tracking the current cycle, which is the purple one over there. You can see 100%
deviating away from the norm of what we typically see.
So we'll see if you can start to reclaim some of those key levels that we outlined, most notably that 92 to
$94,000 region for Bitcoin. You can start to break back into the trading range and then you can say that, you know what,
this was the biggest bear trap ever shaking people out of their positions we've reclaimed back into the trading range the structure
is healthy and we can start to continue the trajectory that had been previously set from the
2017 and 2021 cycle until then you have to consider that this has deviated right so remember the safe
player has been to say if you can get back above these key levels,
you're now coming into that resistance level over here.
We'll see if it's gonna test that as resistance or not.
That's a 21 weekly exponential
and it is angled towards the downside.
Remember, prior bear market cycles occurred like this, right?
Where essentially it loses it,
rallies back, tests into it, fails,
rallies into a test, into it, fails, and then you continue down, right, where essentially it loses it, rallies back, tests into it, fails, rallies into it, tests into it, fails,
and then you continue down, right?
So that was from 2021, and we can have a look as well
in the 2017 cycle over here, you can see once lost,
it did break above, held above temporarily,
but couldn't maintain above that structure,
and then it continued to govern price towards the downside.
So I think it's gonna be a very, very interesting
couple of weeks, right?
100%, interesting couple of weeks are coming off
of low volatility over there.
Will bulls save the day?
If they are going to save the day,
all they need to do is get back above here, right?
That's it, just break back above here.
That would confirm the shakeout.
Otherwise you do have to view the possibility
of any move into this region as likely to reject
and come back down to those lower zones, right?
Also, when we look at the RSI trend line,
you can see we continue to reject.
If another good healthy sign will be
if we can't break and hold above this level.
I'll show you some interesting things that,
you know, it's not entirely correlated,
but an interesting indicator that you can
utilize to see that maybe, maybe we will start to get a break of this trendline in the coming
days and weeks. So again, I think the theme here is for the swing traders, you don't need
to rush anything. For the DJs, we give you those DJ trades, right? As per this video
yesterday, you know, you can, of course, you reclaim the Monday low, stop loss goes below that week
and you long it all the way to the top over here.
You would have taken some of your profits along the way.
Short term traders, long short, all over the place,
you know, you can take multiple different trades,
both long and short within the same week.
Of course, that's intraday trading, right?
And then you eliminate your risk
and you allow that trade to play out.
But for swing traders,
you need these high timeframe frame things to shift.
This is still in a downtrend.
We haven't broken it yet, but you are above that yellow line and you are reclaiming now as well the 200 MA and 200 EMA.
So if your RSI can break this, then maybe price can also start to break above these key levels,
recapturing that trading range over here at the yellow line.
And that will be a good sign, right?
That will be a good sign that the shakeout is maybe done.
So for those of you that do want to trade in the short term,
the intraday, there is a trading competition over here.
You can unlock up to $3,500 in signup bonuses and join.
We are taking registrations for the next 14 days.
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Remember market proof trading blueprint
will be covering a new topic, a new section in Whale School.
We'll also be building a $10,000 trading portfolio
for the people who join this next cohort, right?
Exclusive, exclusive to those who join the next cohort.
So use the link below, sign up to Allbank,
then come through to Whaleschool, click that,
sign up over there, join in,
and it's gonna be a whole lot of fun.
All right, pricing the short term
is coming into resistance over here. You can see this is your at least downtrend over the last couple of days,
ever since the 21st of February, so the last four weeks or so. And then you have your
multi-month downtrend where the top was set in, of course, in January, right? January, December,
and that's maintaining that downward price action.
So again, the importance of getting about that $92,000 level,
when you veer on the low timeframe,
you can see a little bit more clearly
how significant this horizontal is, right?
All of this previous support now flipping into resistance
with those downsloping trend lines over there,
you do need to recapture some of that.
So coming into the 200 EMA,
expect that there will be pullbacks along the way, right?
Now, what is the silver lining over here?
At least this is one silver,
or should I say gold lining,
because we are looking actually at gold versus BTC,
identified over here by Mr. Anderson.
Since January, 2023,
gold has been in a vicious downtrend against Bitcoin.
Bitcoin outperforming gold. So as the prices move up against Bitcoin. Bitcoin outperforming gold,
so as the prices move up Bitcoin has gone up quicker than gold, which is why the gold BTC chart
has essentially been going down. So you can see constant rejections over here of the 200 EMA,
and the question is are we going to deviate that once again? So if we are going to deviate over deviate this line once again and the gold btc
chart is going to continue to move towards the downside well then you can view it when you overlay
bitcoin price right you can see each one of those rejections on the gold btc chart which is the price
chart at the red line over here that's your 200 EMA. Each one of those rejections has actually coincided with a
significant bounce on the BTC USD pair which is highlighted in the orange line underneath right.
So there rejection bounce rejection bounce right rejection over here comes down BTC puts in a pretty
big rally so that's your bit of hopium over here. If those low timeframe trends can maintain towards the upside, your safe zone, I guess you can wait for a reclaim of 92,000 for the swing traders.
For the short-term traders, you'll be looking for more aggressive entries,
which we can cover in a bit. Also, if you do get that ratio breaking down, the gold BTC ratio
rejecting of the 200 EMA, moving towards towards the downside and then you can start to see
a rally from Bitcoin. You definitely want to see this chart change towards the upside. So
in alignment with of course what we're looking at over here in terms of the RSI which is declining,
we want that RSI to break through that trend line. Price is at least holding above the
the momentum line for the the RSI to
continue to trend up so there is always a possibility of that and then you also
want to see this downtrend broken in the daily exchange volume if you get those
pair of things taking place then there is some hope right until then you have
to side with the trend why because the trend is powerful right think of it like
a like a tide right if you're swimming against the tide,
you're gonna weaken, you're gonna tire out
and the tide's gonna pull you out to sea, right?
So you're gonna probably drown.
So you don't want to fight that trend.
The trend is still towards the downside.
All you have to do is wait for the tide
or the trend to change directions,
and then you're gonna have a much easier trip and journey.
So in terms of the shorter term,
if you are looking for pullback levels,
I think anywhere around this $84,000 region
to form a potential high low is gonna be fair game.
Watch for the longs to get flushed over here.
So you can see there's still a lot of longs in the market,
Trinofomo in chase price in the short term,
open interest is building up over here. Wait for them to flush, wait for the funding to go negative
on the low timeframes like the hourly or even the 15 minute time frame. And as you witness
price come down into those key levels around that $84,000 region, that could be your next
major high low where the DJs again, not the swing traders, not the safe people, but the
DJs will start to jump in.
Yes, we do also have the Trump Summit today, right?
So maybe that's gonna bring a little bit of excitement
into the market.
We'll see what happens over there.
I don't know how many summits there are with Trump,
how many different events, there's so many.
All right, looking at the USDT over here,
you can see the USDT dominance as we're starting
to roll over,
you're getting a bearish cross between the 9 and the 18 exponential. If it continues to maintain
underneath this, this could easily roll over. This rolling over would likely spike Bitcoin up
about $92,000 and then things would be looking good. If you get a breakdown of the BTC dominance
chart as well, remember we spoke about that yesterday where we
said, total one and total two has essentially come into that key support level, which would be the
equivalent of Bitcoin coming down into its prior horizontal range, which was $72,000. So total one
and two, the total cryptocurrency market cap has already completed that pattern. So the only way that total to bounces
with Bitcoin still coming down to that seventy two thousand dollar region
because it's in a downtrend would be if Bitcoin dominance broke down.
What's interesting about that is if you do actually look at the altcoin season
index. And again, I always this has become a swear word.
Saying this word altcoin season is now a swear word,
but it's come down into the green zone, right?
Which just means you're looking for a reaction.
I am 100% not advocating that you buy altcoins
and ape into altcoin positions,
but I think it's worth noting and worth keeping
a keen eye out on any sort of a change, right?
And keeping a keen eye out on the Bitcoin dominance chart,
because if this does start to break down,
maybe your fair value gap, we can delete that, it's run its course.
Whereas previously I said, you have confirmation alt should outperform
if it broke this down.
I think we can raise that line up now to the 60% level, right?
Now, if you break below those lows over there on the Bitcoin
dominance chart, then you can say that the trend is reversing. We're shifting direction over here.
So that's why you got a little bit of a move, a tiny little move up on the ETH BTC chart over here.
Your market structure break will occur if ETH BTC can get above 0.0257. So we're zooming in.
Why? Well just because we should pay attention.
We definitely should pay attention
because total one and two is coming to the key support,
right?
Bitcoin hasn't yet.
So maybe you get Bitcoin coming down slowly,
Bitcoin dominance breaking down
and then some of these else taking a move up
in the short term.
And consequently, we've been building those positions,
right?
If you look over here, he has our ETH bot that we created using Pynix. For those of you that want that, it's linked
below, you can literally click, copy the bot. You would need to sign up to my link first, otherwise
you can't copy the bot. But click that and you can jump in, right? And we have the hedge position as
well in case the market breaks down, because BTC is still indecisive, right? So we got a long bot set up for ETH specifically. We
have a hedge bot, meaning we both long and short at the same time on BTC on three X,
so it's low leverage over there. And those trades are really, really starting to play
out nicely over there. If you do want that information, of course, it is listed below, right?
So there it is.
Just click those links, PINEX, click that Automate your Crypto Trading, click that,
you can copy it.
You can also create your own bots, right?
If any of you think you can create a more profitable bot, reach out to me, right?
100%.
I'm open to sharing ideas over there. So for the rest of you, jump into into whale school.
Again, you can sign up to altbank over there to join. We can take a few altcoin requests.
Let's have a look. Let's see what's happening in the altcoin sector over here. Let's just
change back to we need this chart. Okay, let's just see how some of the other coins reacted over here.
One second, let's just do a refresher.
Let's see if that loads up.
All right, guys, let me know in the comments.
Let me know if there's anything specific
that you wanna see,
anything you wanna have a look at over there.
And let's quickly switch over.
So let's see how Solana doing off of these key levels.
Has it reclaimed some zones?
So let's move on the daily. So Solana is off of these key levels, has it reclaimed some zones, so let's move on the daily.
So Solana is holding up over here
at this highly important $126 zone,
but still again, a downtrend.
For most of these coins, if you want a much safer entry,
it's better to wait,
it always means you're gonna buy higher, right?
For anyone new, this is a difficult thing
for them to wrap their head around, right? Is buying higher, but it means buy higher, right? For anyone new, this is a difficult thing for them to wrap their head around, right?
Is buying higher, but it means safer entries, right?
You need to break down this artificial pump
that was created from Trump, the manipulation move, right?
From the Trump family off of his truth social posts
or tweets, whatever you wanna call it.
That occurred on the 2nd of March and the 3rd of March
was basically bearish engulfing candles across the board.
Until you reclaim these levels,
it's a dangerous environment, right?
So go to your favorite chart,
literally just have a look at that.
Trump pump for SUI, for example,
that means reclaiming the previous month's mid range
at $3.27, right?
$3.27.
What we'll do is we can do more altcoin requests as well
on Saturday.
I will not be doing a stream tomorrow,
so I won't be here tomorrow.
But you will find me on Saturday.
Let's see if bulls can maintain a higher low.
If they can find a high low in the low time frames,
we may actually start to shift this picture.
So pay attention to the charts. sharp don't lose focus it's of course a highly highly important time
and I'll see you guys all in the next one have an absolutely stellar day and
cheers for now guys
