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INVEST LIKE ACKMAN | $ACKY
Recorded: Sept. 11, 2025 Duration: 2:43:00Space Recording
Short Summary
In a bullish market update, key indicators show a strong performance on September 11th, with historical trends suggesting a positive outlook. Notable growth in tech stocks like Tesla and CrowdStrike, alongside strategic insights into the crypto and AI sectors, highlight emerging opportunities for investors. The discussion also emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and the potential for significant returns in the evolving landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up everyone? Welcome in. Welcome in. September the 11th, 2025, 24 years after that
crazy day in New York. We always remember that, of course. And here we are. We have a green day.
I believe the metrics around
September 11th in the market are actually very bullish. They always say don't short America,
right? Some of the things I saw, 19 of the last 20, I think, have been green. And that's what
we have here today, a little market update as we jump into it a little bit and get some of our
panel joining in. Pretty slow afternoon in the stock market today, but we did have an initial push and
a little trend up in the morning that's since gone sideways.
We are sitting at the highs of day.
S&P up 0.8% today, about $5 on SPY.
If you look at SPX, it's up about 54 points.
The NASDAQ up about 0.6% as well up here near the highs of day.
And then IWM outperforming today up 1.5%.
I also see the Dow Jones outperforming up 1.3%.
VIX down almost 4% over there on the volatility index.
And a few other things going on moving.
Obviously we had some data this morning,
crypto having a decent green day and CPI this morning.
We had that come out.
It was, I guess you could call it a nothing burger.
I'm sure that's what probably some of our panel
and crew will say up here, but I look around
and I see basically in line numbers,
2.9 on the year over year.
I see 0.3% on the month over month on core. Core year over year was 3.1. Pretty much everything
right around the consensus and forecast there. The jobless numbers did come in a little bit hotter.
236,000 was the previous number. The consensus was about in that same area, $235,000 to $240,000.
Those did come in at $263,000.
And we saw yields move down.
The 10-year actually hit 4.0 at one point is what I saw on the TNX this morning.
And there was a headline, basically people tracking the 30-year mortgage rate was down.
So obviously, we see some companies over in that sector that have been talked about on
here, Rocket Mortgage and some others doing very well today.
I'm going to pull up the FedWatch tool real fast here and just see where things are kind
of at currently sitting for the September meeting.
This is next Wednesday, but it's in a blackout period, of course,
this week and going into the FOMC next week.
On Wednesday, 94.9% now is the probability
for a 25 basis point cut.
And for those that are looking for a 50 basis point,
it's just a 5% opportunity.
But the thing is sticking out a little bit more
as they're pricing in three.
At one point, it was basically four cuts through January.
Right now, I'm looking at it, and I see three 25 basis point cuts being priced in through the end of the year.
Maybe a January hold is what they're currently showing on here.
And obviously, those have moved a little bit throughout the day as the market digests all the news from this morning.
And yeah, a few things moving in tech.
I'm sure Options Mike will jump in to cover some of this.
I mean, Tesla, Tesla's just being Tesla today by far.
The outperformer and leader.
Boom.
Tesla, and we talked about this a little bit earlier on a different space.
I completely, it was on the top of my watch list.
I completely just missed it all together.
But Tesla, amazing day, up five and a half percent.
CrowdStrike and Apple doing well today, as well as Google.
Microsoft basically doing nothing today.
Flat on the day.
Amazon flat, Meta flat.
NVIDIA, flat on the day. Amazon flat, Meta flat. NVIDIA, flat on the day. Those names haven't really done much, but the rest of the market's kind of pulling the weight. I even looked
sector by sector a little bit earlier as well. I was noticing the banks were outperforming. You look
at real estate doing very well. You look at consumer discretionary, healthcare's up today.
Pretty much every sector up very nicely. And really the outlier,
energy is a little bit red, but the outlier outside of that, the tech sector itself is
slightly green while everything else pretty strong. That's a lot of babbling for me. I know
we've got some people coming in, but Options Mike, I want to, if you have any thoughts,
what did I miss? I mean, obviously I didn't hit any headlines or anything like that.
I'm just going to hit the surface level stuff.
And not a whole lot going on in a healthy new all-time highs market.
There's not.
I mean, we're approaching the top of the channel I have on the SPY.
So, I mean, that's something to watch to see if that holds or not.
And that channel's up around the 661 area.
So a couple more points to go get it.
It's names, right? that channels up around the 661 area so a couple more points to go get it um
it's it's it's it's names right they're rotating names around you know yesterday was oracle and avigo and nvidia today they decided nope we don't want any of those today they sold those off today
and they decided let's run tesla today okay yep caught me off guard i i was watching it i missed
it and then i caught up with stock for a
bit but i missed my option trades on it three times not once not twice but three times uh
google back at another all-time high i mean they just don't want to give that name a break
uh hood came roaring back today uh i traded micron out of the gate i still can't believe
they didn't let it get the all-time high and i'm just still keep sitting here staring at this going
like you got less than a buck away and you just, and you just couldn't go get a buck.
I'm sorry, a buck 30 away, and you couldn't go get it.
I mean, come on.
Just freaking go get it.
But I had a nice trade on that early.
I got on options very quickly on that one.
And I traded open.
And opens up – I've never traded open with options before.
Today was the first time.
And, you know, I like bought these things and I bought a whole ton of them down at $1.13.
And I'm watching the options going up and the stock's not moving.
I'm like, oh, the ID is going through the roof.
That was it.
And that was just one of those trades where, you know, I made more money than I should have because the implied volatility just kept going up.
And I just, you know, I took that and got out.
So, I mean, sometimes you get lucky like that, right?
But, you know, they're rotating around Microsoft, Meta, Amazon.
They want nothing to do with here.
Palantir, which looked good set up this morning.
They dumped that on the open as well.
So Apple, which they dumped yesterday, they're buying it back today.
Apple, which they dumped yesterday.
They're buying it back today.
Baba took off around 12 o'clock today and mooned.
I mean, it's just kind of one of those days.
The market is just about names.
They're rotating rapidly and intraday.
And meanwhile, the banks are leading.
JP Morgan, new all-time highs, Goldman Sach sachs bank of america and citigroup
are approaching highs that we've never seen on these you know you're never going to see the
all-time highs on those names again um it's just a weird market you know it just is we're just
melting up and you just have to kind of just say i'm going to try to find places to go long
and as we talked about in the previous spaces you know at some point well hopefully we get some type of correction here to reset everything but right now this market wants nothing to do with
that by the way duke's barking because i made chicken for him and he's uh it smells it and
he's going nuts out there so i apologize for that i think the dog was saying to go long broadcom or
something well he's a big fan of chewy but he's not real happy right now. He's not in a
good mood after yesterday. Yeah, Chewy, rough day yesterday, classic inside day on that chart.
Yeah, you had a lot of things there open. I believe they bring a new CEO or something.
And they brought the founders back to their board. I mean, okay. I mean, I get it. That's cool.
I don't know if it really changes anything, but I'll take it for a trade, right? I don't want to own it, but I'll trade it.
Yeah, absolutely. Appreciate you kicking us off there, Options Mike, as always.
Feel free to jump back in at any point. Logical hands going up right away. I actually wanted to
bring Logical in pretty quickly today because that seems to be the main headline. I'm looking
at Rocket Mortgage that you've pounded the table on here i'm looking at the mortgage rates i mentioned this just a few
moments ago 30-year mortgage rates dipping really hard today uh logical what's going on what's uh
good news right absolutely fantastic day for the portfolio new all-time highs i'm pushing 114
year today loving that um yeah it's a it's a great year. I'm up 2.5% on the day. I mean,
market's just ripping though, right? And I was on this Spaces yesterday. There's a lot of things
that are working and that's what I love about my portfolio. I have a pretty diversified portfolio.
I feel like a lot of people on Twitter, no hate, obviously, because all that matters is performance,
but a lot of people make the one factor bet, same factor bet right like if you're if you're long high growth momentum stocks and they all kind of
work and move together but what i like about this year is that i've actually been able to do this
type of performance with a lot of different sectors and a lot of different holdings so i've been doing
it in a diversified way which you know is a way to limit your downside risk to a specific stock
like you don't need to worry about waking up one day and your major holding is down 30% or something because it won't kill the portfolio. I talked
about Galaxy Digital yesterday and I mentioned how that one makes a ton of sense here. I think
it's playing on two major themes, crypto and data centers. And it looks like crypto wants to bounce
here. I've been seeing they've been loading the ETHE calls.
They've been loading the IBIT calls.
We've been consolidating there for a while.
So obviously, Galaxy's crypto exposure should help there.
And then they have the data center exposure.
And the two biggest stories this week were Oracle data center revenues
and Nebius data center deal with Microsoft.
So to me, it felt like Galaxy is probably one of the best to benefit.
And I know some people were talking about, you know, the miners and iron and cipher, et cetera.
But Galaxy has an inked partnership to lease out 800 megawatts of that data center capacity to CoreWeave already.
And CoreWeave, they've been slamming the calls there too.
So I don't necessarily care for CoreWeave, but Galaxy Digital, based on the expected revenues
and EBITDA that they should get from that deal alone,
not to mention all the additional capacity
they can sign away at some point
once they're able to get those energy contracts in place
to supply the power for the rest of that capacity
of the data center.
I mean, that upside could be tremendous.
So the stock looked good.
I posted it yesterday and I said,
look, broke out of the downtrend, kind of pulled pulled back yesterday and you could see that it basically retested that uh that
breakout of the downtrend and today it's up you know 9.6 right now so that's nice um this morning
my largest condition nectar nectar therapeutics nktr i've been talking about this one a lot
it's up like 100 in the last uh month or so. It was down 10% today on a really, really, really silly piece of information
that wasn't even really news. And a couple of days ago, I mentioned I cut the position in half.
I exited the shares in my IRAs at tax-free gain. But today I used that 10% dip to buy back those
shares. So that worked out really well because NKTR is almost dip to buy back those shares. So that worked out really well
because NKTR is almost back to flat on the day. So that was a great dip buy. You got to really
know what you own. So that worked out pretty well. PSNL is one I talked about as baby tempers.
Obviously temp is catching a bid today. This one's also up 13.4%. So if I know what I own,
even though it looked like it was already catching
bids and it was going up day after day, if I still think that this thing is pretty undervalued,
I don't care. I'll chase it. And I don't think it's necessarily chasing because this thing was
touching nine bucks and it's still just at low sixes right now. But yeah, but up 14% on the day.
So PSNL makes a ton of sense. Happy with that ad yesterday. There's a lot of things that are
working, right? Like what isn't working? I think it's hard to find what isn't working. You know, obviously,
you mentioned the housing names. Those are all up. Those are all nicely green. Floor and decor
up 6% today. What else? Let me see. Yeah, there's just a lot on my list that are doing really well.
So what's not to like about the market? IWM back over 240. I don't really care for that garbage index,
but it just kind of gives you an idea of what the backdrop is.
If IWM is trying to push to new highs,
how bearish can you truly be, right?
So yeah, is the inflation print today a big deal?
No, I don't think so.
I don't think it matters really.
I've been saying the inflation story stories in the rear view now. And yeah, I mean, I don't think there's anything else other than
there's a lot of stocks to pick. There's a lot of things to win. And as much as people are like,
oh no, this rally has gone too far and blah, blah, blah. But calling tops is really tough.
After you get some sort of insane numbers from Oracle on those projections,
whether they actually turn out to be reality or not, which it does seem like they could very well
be real. The point is that we just moved a $600 billion stock by 40%. The last time we saw a move
like that was basically like NVIDIA two years ago. And so I'm thinking to myself, like, are we going to start like this next leg of this bull run in AI stocks?
And that invigorated it because, oh, God, we did not even realize, you know, how much the upside could truly still be from here.
Right. And if we start thinking, oh, wow, like that revenue implies this and that.
And, you know, now people are starting to think about, OK, wait, maybe we underestimated how much further this could really go. And people start chasing those projections now. Markets
look forward. So we're starting to price that in now. And so I'm wondering, you know, as much as
people are saying like, you know, we should get a pullback and we should get a thing. I get it.
I think that'd be healthier. But if we don't get a pullback, then it's melt up. And if it's melt up,
then that's where you're going to make a ton of money in stock. So I don't see any, I don't see this market slowing down at all. The price
action just keeps telling you it's going higher. So there's no point in being a hero. I think you
can just ride the trend. And if the trend breaks down, then you can reassess.
One quick follow-up on, right actually go ahead sam i just wanted to add because you made
commentary about the housing stocks and everything i mean i i want to bring up open door right so
i don't think um i don't think a lot of people are too attached to the previous concept of the
way open door has been and the reason why they went down to $0.58 and so on.
There was literally no perspective or no growth in the region.
And I'm not going to sit over and be like, OpenDoor is going to $82.
But when you have the COO of Shopify, who is basically on there,
on there that took the operations of the company to bring it to a hundred billion dollar plus
that took the operations of the company to bring it to $100 billion plus company,
company especially a leader in ai when it comes to the uh shopping back-end platform
become the ceo of opendoor and you know a lot of people have certain opinions as far as you know
okay the founders come back and they join the board and you know whatever but they're the ones
who brought the stock down in the first place. I'll go, okay, fine. That makes sense. That makes sense.
But I don't know.
Maybe there's a turnaround story here.
We'll see.
I'm not going to really advise anyone.
Like, dive in, right?
We're going.
So can I just, can I say something?
I think you had a very good post about GitLab this morning.
And what did you say in that?
You said price changed sentiment, right? So the only thing that changed was price.
And the reason why the stock was down because of the sentiment,
I think I would give you the same kind of argument
for why Open Door is up right now.
I think it has nothing to do
with the business model doing well.
I think it has to do with the sentiment around it.
For sure, dude.
Short term, the price is really good.
The sentiment is really good with the price.
So that's fine with the commission.
It was massively short, right?
So you had this great news that came out.
You know, you had the shop by CEO starting.
You're right.
You're right.
Like, obviously, the stock's up like 15x and the business is not up 15x.
You get what I mean?
Exactly.
Like, you know, the same thing goes for a lot of other companies the other way around, right?
Like Rubrik is down basically 20% or nearly 20% from its recent earnings, which is actually really good.
But everyone was gung-ho bullish on a rubric. And all of a sudden, you get a report where it's
not as good as expected. So it goes the other way around. The same thing goes with many other
companies, right? But everyone's on one side of the boat. You get some news that is actually
better than perceived, and it's going to rally. In the short term, I've always said in the short
term, it really is about positioning and set to it.
But in the long term, the fundamentals do it.
I don't know if the fundamentals are going to be as far as open during the long term.
Who knows?
But it'll be it'll be I'll tell you exactly what it'll be.
They'll raise the capital as much as capital they can raise.
Then you multiply that multiple of the cash by 0.8 and that's what it's going to trade
All right.
I mean, we'll see, you know, but like but like you know you i guess my point is saying that don't underestimate management with
any company i'm not just saying this open door i'm talking i'm talking about i'm also talking
about grab holdings right you're seeing grab holdings get very large volume above the average
for the last few days.
On top of that, Grab is trading near its all-time highs.
In fact, I think today it's going to have its all-time closing high.
And no one cared about this stock. Sam, please.
Come on.
Grab is a real business.
Grab is a real business, man.
Open Door is not a real business.
I'm not trying to say Open Door is going to 82 bucks.
What I'm saying is that don't underestimate management when i talk
about magic i'm not talking about opening i'm talking about this this this the former ceo of
shopify right he brought that company there for a reason who knows what's gonna happen over what
my point is i'm saying is that don't underestimate when i think it's a lot i know but like trying to
translate selling products to consume like consumer products to selling houses.
Like, I don't see it.
Okay.
But everyone shares their sentiment though. So, you know, I don't think that-
I think I would say I don't underestimate
the powers of a bull market
and the ability for a stock like this to meme and rip.
But I'm not gonna,
I don't know if that translates to the business.
I'm not sitting on here saying,
buy Open Door, it's a great business.
I'm just trying to
attach a narrative to the reason why the stock is going up i mean you've also said that you know
it is a positioning and sentiment which is very true right the narrative is going to follow
sentiment but what i've argued and what i am going to continue to argue is you had duolingo
for example apple came out with their airp, the AirPods Pros, which you can do live
AI translation. And Duolingo went from like $289, $285 down to $258. I didn't bottom ticket,
but I bought it hard when I was in the 260s, right? Look where it is today. It's around $310.
What happened to that price? What happened in the narrative? And now all of a sudden,
Duolingo's coming back.
Dude, nothing changed. Look at the last quarter. Those numbers are really good in the last quarter.
There was no reason from a metric and fundamental perspective why the stock would have dropped from
450 all the way down to 250, or it was the other day, based on their quarter alone. It was based
on sentiment. Yeah, of course, 450 is a little bit expensive for that stock. But at the same time, that massive move in price, it was literally all
fear, right? So what I'm just trying to say is that you take a lot of what you're seeing in the
market today, last April, for example, as a general market basis, right? Everyone, the stock
market was sold by market makers all the way down to 23% intraday. And today we're up what, like 10, 15% year to date.
It really, I guess the only message that I want to send is that
if you're going to buy something,
you better have some damn conviction on it, right?
Because there is nothing that says the market's going to keep going up.
Who the hell knows?
It looks like the market's going to keep going up,
but at the same time, the market's going to drop.
But when things drop,
you better be ready to buy with high
conviction positions and that could be really with anything yeah go ahead sam i'm going to help you
out here man i'm going to save your life right now just go buy wbd go into the moon because
rumors are going to be bought out yeah come on i just want to have fun but i mean you know you
look at a stock like that i mean they have so much debt nobody's paying like more than 20 or 30 for it
i mean they're never going to get that 17 price i mean who's going to buy this thing for that kind
of money so i think you know everything here we you know it's one of those days where we've all
the market just is melting up and it sucks it's tough i know i want to pull back right i want more
than i want you know i want some pull back here in this market to get some better action, to get some better entrances.
This market's relentless.
It sucks.
It's just relentless.
Yeah.
I mean, all I'm saying is that there's a few deals still on the table here.
Duolingo was a pretty good deal a couple of days ago.
And look where did that today.
I'm not saying that was the bottom, but I was slowly adding into a position and I was actually expecting to go lower.
that that was the bottom, but I was slowly adding into a position and I was actually expecting to
go lower. But what appeared on Tuesday seemed more like liquidity grab rather than like the
stock is going downhill because the company's going to go downhill and so on. Today, I think
we're seeing the same thing with Rubric. I think Rubric is getting sold off from a much higher
valuation, right? But I think it's a little bit overdone considering how good their last quarter
actually was. I thought that was a really good quarter.
They continue to grow subscription AR on an annual basis.
Excellent.
I think that was around 40%.
They're continuing to expand their clients across the entire board.
They're releasing new products.
They're no longer a resilient company that just backs up your systems in AWS or Azure
or Google Cloud Platform, but they're literally becoming a cybersecurity platform
in general. I think that this name is not, I don't think people really understand exactly
rubric does. And the point that I'm trying to make is I have very high conviction rubric.
I think that five, 10 years, I think the stock is going to be much higher. That being said,
I'm not going all in on it, but I'm certainly adding to it. But when I see opportunities like this exist, that's when I
see an asymmetric risk upside, but not only in the short term, but also in the long term.
I am long Rubik. I think it's like over 5% of my portfolio, and I'm willing to add to it if it
continues to drop down lower. And that might be a different perspective for the short term.
I can't tell you where it's going to be next week. I'm sure you guys can do that a lot better
than I could. What I'm saying is that conviction is literally what matters the
most in this market, whether it's trade, whether it's investing for long-term, whatever it is,
you better be ready to buy, whether it aligns with your charts, your indicators, whatever it is,
or your fundamental thesis, secular trends, and so on. You better be ready to buy it and ignore
the freaking noise because there was so much noise last April.
There was so much noise last Tuesday with the lingo.
There was so much noise everywhere.
And the reason why I brought something as crazy as Open Door was because you can see
how bad the FUD can get when a stock drops versus what's actually happening underneath
and why the price actually might be going up.
Of course, as many factors to that, what I'm saying is that, well, narrative is definitely a fall
of price in this one, in my opinion, I to say that it's not going to go to 17 bucks.
I mean, who the hell knows, dude, like AMC back in 2021.
I still remember those days.
I still remember a lot of stocks back then.
Like we could have every single excuse for it not to go up.
But if these market makers going to bid the thing up, I mean, so be it.
Go ahead.
I just wanted to say, I don't see the issue.
Like, you know, obviously I get that, you know, people want to pull back and it would make some valuations more attractive.
But I still see a lot of opportunity in this market. So i don't know i'm not really hating this at all i actually love when the
market makes new highs every day i don't know all right it's it's definitely nice on the portfolio
but i also think that and i know you're really good at it too logical i know that you you know
how you know went to de-risk i saw you do do it last April in March and everything. I remember when
you sold Amazon at 230 bucks and Shai and I were just like, you're crazy, man. Why would you sell
it? It was 80 bucks lower just a couple months later. Like that was pretty wild. Like, you know
how to react to everything. Right. And then for the other side, for people who are more long-term
traders, it's like the only, the only thing that I got to say is because this isn't going to last
forever. It's not, I'm not saying it's going to end today, but let's be grounded here, right? The market's
in the melt-up mode. Very easy to get away with it, but you need to keep your mind for a long-term
investor. You need to keep your mind on your fundamental thesis as well as the secular trends.
The best companies in the world are likely going to go down a lot less than the worst shit companies
in the world. Right? So, and if you, if you are buying open door today, you better have really
high conviction that's going to go higher unless it's a trade of course, but whatever that is,
I think you guys will know more about that and people who will be in it, but just, you need to
have conviction of what you're holding. because this, it might keep going.
It might keep going up, melting up, but it will not last forever.
The market at some point will pull back and you better have a laundry list or a shopping list of a bunch of companies you want to buy when it does.
I got to hop off, guys, but thanks for the chat.
thanks for the chat see y'all next time
See you all next time.
David Dodd
Later, dog.
didn't even get a chance to ask about the biotechs
that I saw XBI moving well
today if that
draws logically
if you have a chance
I mentioned Nectar today
NKTR which has been a big winner for me
had a 10% dip and that
entire dip has been wiped out
I actually bought the dip today,
which was what I was talking about earlier. From XBI, again, I've been mentioning this on the
spaces. When it comes to housing, you can basically throw a dart at the wall. And I think
all of them are going to work with the macro. At the end of the day, they all are just like a
highly correlated to mortgage rates and all that stuff. But when it comes to bios, you can have,
if you're, if you're stock picking, you could have a, you know, something that's a complete dud or you could
have a complete, you know, Chad stock. And so, you know, I don't like XBI any more than I like
IWM. I think they're both garbage indexes. So I generally don't like longing those things,
but having them be working in the right direction is obviously a good backdrop for those sectors.
direction is obviously a good backdrop for those sectors. Yeah, I mean, you know, I think one that
I really like here is LQDA, Liquidia. They have like their major competitor UTHR, which is six
times larger in market cap. They've been winning in court against them. They've been trying to
take their market share. Anything that UTHR does, they have the same active drug in their main treatment.
And ultimately,
that's been finding new indications through trials,
which basically reads through
to LQDA's treatments as well.
So because it's the same active drug.
So I think that they're basically
paving the way for their competitor.
So that's an interesting one.
But anyways, guys, I got to head out.
Thanks all for the chat.
And we'll see you next time.
Appreciate you.
Logical.
Sam, since you've jumped in a little bit with some thoughts as well,
anything else that was sticking out to you today?
I mean, we really haven't hit any news or anything else.
It was a great way to kick off the space there,
talking about open and some other things there.
But anything else that really stuck out to you today in this market
um macro front or news news wise around any of the different stocks that i know that you pay
attention to yeah i mean there's a lot i could say in terms of price movement but like fundamental
thesis wise i don't think anything's really changing the market um i already talked about
yesterday when it comes to the trade desk.
I mean, you saw trade desk, it's basically hitting multi-year lows here.
And I've said enough about it.
If anybody wants to check it out, you can go ahead and check it out in yesterday's recording.
But, you know, same thing goes for what I was saying earlier, was that, you know, if you think trade desk is a good deal, then you better be ready for it in case it goes lower.
Right? So you have a market basically hitting a new all-time high and you have a stock making new lows. you think trade dust is a good deal, then you better be ready for it in case it goes lower.
So you have a market basically hitting a new all-time high and you have a stock making new lows.
If you're going to continue buying, then you better have a good reason why. And I was kind of the same way with Duolingo. Basically, for the last week when I was buying it,
I was ready for it to go lower. If you buy something, you need to expect for it to go lower,
especially if it's for the long term.
If you're a trader, different story.
You can stock yourself out, whatever.
But if you're an investor for the long term and you want to hold something for years, you cannot buy something expecting it to go straight up after that because then you're just going to get shaking out.
What is killing TTD and some of these ad stocks?
What is killing TTD and some of these ad stocks?
So you basically have TTD, which revolutionized the entire ad tech industry by taking a very manual process in terms of buying ad space on platforms.
So whether that's Netflix buying ad space in there, or that's, well, YouTube is a bad example because Google does have their own walled garden, which means that they control the sell side and the buy and demand side of their platform.
But basically, a lot of that was manual.
TradeDesk came around with their software, revolutionary software that basically automated
the entire process.
There were a lot of different applications and software that was able to do that for
people, but people usually had to build it in-house.
TradeDesk basically changed the whole
game. But then fast forward 10 years later, five years later, probably more like six years later,
you have Netflix, which was actually a customer of Trade Desk where people were able to buy ad
space on Netflix by using Trade Desk software. Now they're starting to use amazon ads in order to sell that uh sell
that real estate that advertising real estate this is directly competitive a trade door i'm
not trying to spread flood i'm just providing the facts is that the market's looking at that
and they're starting to think well trade desk missed the first quarter that it has ever missed
ever since it went public and on top top of that, the margins are contracting.
They're slowing down.
Let's sell this mofo down to zero, right?
That's just how the market thinks.
It gets ahead of itself, whatever.
That's what's bringing trade desk down.
Now, then you have other companies like Reddit and AppLovinUp, right?
But those are companies that are more tied in the sell side, where they're actually taking
the real estate that's available and then selling it to demand
side platform. So then that way, people who are on the demand side can buy ad space. AppLovin is
providing that advertising real estate as well as Reddit. Reddit is actually more of a walled garden,
but they're less impacted by this because they are not necessarily in that market.
But AppLovin did announce in its most recent quarter that they're going to be looking to get
into the demand side. However, I don't think that's going to happen for a while. So I don't
think that was directly impeding, but even from a financial end, Reddit and Apple Lovin's margins
are expanding. Their growth is extraordinary. They're on a secular trend, not necessarily the
same thing. All I'm saying is that like trade desks, like know what you buy. That's really it.
But that's pretty much the reason why that's the news that came out.
The other trade desk was down like 12%.
That's pretty much the reason why.
Appreciate those thoughts, Sam.
There's plenty more that we could cover, of course,
but I want to make sure we get around over to Wolfie.
Wolfie, what's going on?
Any thoughts around what's been discussed so far?
And then what else are you working on out here in this market? I know we heard some of your
thoughts a little bit earlier, so I'd love for you to share those here.
I caught the tail end of what Sam was talking about, about Open Door. I don't know
the gist of the conversation, but I think one, there's a lot of names you could point to
outside of Open Door that can kind of give the example.
I think he's trying to say basically like in a bull market,
you try to hold positions and you're trading the positions
for your future expectations and you try to hold through the noise.
I think that's the gist of it.
But I think with Open Door specifically, you know, names like that,
they start off as positioning names.
Then they get a little bit of a squeeze from, you know, retail sentiment.
And then once something is off sides, sides then uh you get you get situations where this the squeeze is is not like it's not fully
priced in yet so all these like incremental like the moves are violent right so like you get these
like 30 drawdowns 40 pops but when you you know compare it to what the what like the peak move
ends up being it's like nothing really uh comparable but i i think i think a better
example than to than to use something like that is to use uh and this is something that sam trades
himself use a stock like gitlab right so gitlab has this like really weird um instance where
you know the short-term catalyst for the stock might not meet expectations,
but there's like a battle between these short-term moves,
specifically around earnings,
and then the investors that want to hold this name
for longer term.
So if you just pull up a chart,
you'll see the stock basically battles
between $38, $40 and this $ this 50 level and it's been doing so
since april right uh and then in may i think it got up to like 55 or give or take but somewhere
between the 200 day and uh that 40 level there's been like this push pull and then and eventually
you know i'm assuming eventually because i i think the company's solid and management's okay.
Eventually, that name will break above its 200-day and eventually it'll get the tailwind, it'll get the momentum, etc.
And then people will then probably use a stock like GitLab and go, hey, remember that time where this was happening and whatever.
So I think he's right when he's talking about, for him, he's like a longer term investor.
Me, I'm a concentrated position trader.
I try to find something on a shorter term basis or a midterm basis.
I try to be pretty levered one way or the other.
And then I try to take advantage of it and effectively layer in calls to where I can pass the baton from whatever short term move I'm expecting to potentially a longer term position.
more nuanced or more in tune with like, you know, the aggregate story behind the stock,
the aggregate driver behind the stock, the aggregate potential behind the stock, you
got to have to, you have to kind of know more in a certain way. Not saying that you don't have to
know anything about stock on a short term basis, but I feel like, you know, you have to be able
to withstand some of these violent moves, right? So if that's the game that you're playing, I think he's right. Like, you have to be able to
sit through some of these, you know, some of these intermediary or short-term stories that
could drive a stock one way or the other. You know, for me, the latest one that is like that
for me is HIMSS. You know, This year has been flooded with back and forth
violent moves. The last two years have been flooded with violent moves. And if you believe
that the story around the total TAM for Hymns growing, the total tam for online uh prescriptions is going to grow or like
these cosmetic specialty drugs going to grow then you know you ride it out until something suggests
you that the growth stalls um same thing same thing not obviously not the same type of company
the same type of thing happened with like netflix when they went from dvds to online streaming
same type of thing happened with uh you know tes Tesla when they went from, you know, luxury automaker to mass market vehicle.
You're going to get these, you know, violent moves along the way that either present themselves as
opportunities. If you believe that the stories is still intact, and if the numbers tell you the
story's still intact, or, you know, they end up, you know creating a a shift uh where you can get caught up
in these violent moves and then you know catch losses so i i wanted to say that on the front
end because i i don't disagree with sam but i think open door is like a a unique case where
it's it's kind of like it started this this move kind of started with a positioning thing, and then it just layered on with retail exposure and this unique thing where the guy's trying to tell people, I'm going to try to find the next car, Vonna.
But I digress.
For today, I think there was a conversation around there's still opportunities.
conversation around there's still opportunities. I tend to agree. Again, if you don't want to
I tend to agree.
participate in some of the same type of names that people are like, you don't want to buy
open door, you don't want to buy, you know, the names that everybody else is buying, there's plenty
of opportunity out there. Two of the names that, you know, people trade pretty frequently, but
they're not like at the top of the list for people that I've mentioned
the last couple of days that ended up working out today were Tempest, which was in a downtrend,
broke out of a downtrend. There's a violent breakout. And Tesla, Tesla had been consolidating
around that 55 level and it gave a window open to 67. Talked about both of them yesterday.
opened to 67.
Talked about both of them yesterday.
You know, pretty aggressive breakouts today.
For Tesla, you can, you know,
marry the rate story with Tesla.
You can marry the, you know,
$7,500 tax credit in September.
I think that's when you have to have a commitment
by the end of September, I think, to get it. It doesn't, that's when the you have to have a commitment by the end of september
i think to get it it doesn't like whatever one you want to choose technically it broke out um
you know on an intermediary basis um you know if you look at the moving averages they're all
pretty much in line kind of creating like this uptrend support uh stocks above its 200 day pressing back up against uh effectively like
where it started to break down from in uh late late february the next real level to kind of like
want to pay attention to is probably around that 375 level which were which is where the stock
broke down from in um you know in late january early febru So above there, we're back in this price discovery thing.
As a trader, I had short-term calls on Tesla,
worked out great.
And I have mid-term calls on Tesla.
Hopefully that continues to work.
But just from a trading perspective,
I'd like to see some sort of consolidation
for a couple of days here
before it really bursts through this like 367 level um and potentially capture that 375 so
you know i i think that this is the kind of market that we're in though you try to find whatever
you're comfortable with um we talked about i think we talked about china last week. I know, Emp, you're a Baidu guy. For me, it was Baba.
They're both working. They're both, I think, up around 15% to 17% since we talked about them on
this space. I don't know how much since we first started talking about them, but if that's the game
you want to play, they present opportunities's the game you want to play they present
opportunities there if you want to look for dislocations or if you want to look for stocks
that get sold off you know uh i talked about crowd strike i think a week ago set is back to
its 200 day sets up an opportunity to take it to the long side as it holds this 200 day in the
uptrend you know take a look at that stock it. It's moved from call it 405, 410, depending where you got it to 440, give or take.
It's a pretty nice move for a stock like that, especially if you had options, especially
if you trade stuff like that.
Duolingo is another one you guys were talking about where, you know, they came into pretty
well-defined technical level between that 255, 260 level.
You can call it 250 if you want to just round down.
And outside of just that momentary headline risk
on the back of Apple,
which gave you another entry
if you wanted to take that sort of thing.
You know, now here we are about 20% later,
stocks trading into its 20 days. So like, you know, now here we are later, here we are about 20% later, stocks trading into its 20 days.
So like, you know, the point is that if you are someone who wants to trade like some sort of
value or some sort of like, you know, story related stock person, or story related asset
person, you know, there's, there's a, there's a spot for you in the market there. So take a look at like
gold, gold miners, et cetera, still continue to press into 52-week highs, all-time highs,
depending on what you're taking. If you're someone who wants to try to find dip buying
opportunities and uptrends, there's opportunities for you there. Take a look at the crowd. If you're someone that tries to find sentiment shifts or potential asymmetric risk return or anything like that, there's opportunities
for you there. Take a look at AEO. That's still one of my largest positions. Still works. Still
on fire. And it gives you opportunities to get back in. And specifically on AEO, I went back and retested that earnings gap up low in line with its five-day at a critical 17.5 level.
There's opportunity for you there.
If you're someone who's looking for some sort of breakout of a downtrend or some sort of breakout mean reversion, there's opportunity for you there.
If you're someone who just looks for 52-week high breakouts or you know, the list is, you know, Reddit, Alab,
et cetera, et cetera. There's, there's lists for you there. And then now if there's, you know,
all these other types of names that worked previously that have just been getting beaten up,
um, that kind of are to me kind of like a measure of risk appetite that seemed to be like they could be working in the next couple of days.
So, for example, take a look at Circle broke out of a downtrend, reclaimed its five day and then just was like aggressive the whole day.
I think it's making a high a day as I speak or close to it.
You know, stock reclaimed its 20 day and there's still a disconnect between 20 day five day and it's
down trying to 50 day which is like 160 165 so you know i think there's a lot of different ways
to kind of play this this sort of uh environment i think if you know you're gonna be the person
that gets up and is going to try to call tops you don't get extra points or don't make extra dollars calling the top. So like, it's especially in an environment like this,
where there's not one real, you know, catalyst to push things lower. So effectively, if you're
playing that game, you know, you could get lucky and hit a Netflix like on a day like today,
right? You could get lucky. But at the end of the day, that's three and a half percent.
If you if I just go through my list, there are significantly more
names that are up three and a half percent or more, even five percent or more than there are
the ones that are down three and a half percent. And to me, if you're playing that game in this
environment currently until something actually cracks, I use the analogy on a couple of charts
that I posted in the last couple of days that ended up working out of a beach ball underwater, right? So you might,
you know, you might catch something that actually does break and has catalyst for its break,
in which case good for you. But if that's not the case, and you're trying to just call top to call
top, more often than not, you're going to be trying to hold this beach ball underwater.
And then the moment that you lose it, it's going up you know outside your hands and taking off so i don't like to play that game
you know i've been a little bit more conservative at times than some of the other guys i look for
you know asymmetric risk return i look for stuff that just goes back to major levels
look for things that have some sort of, you know, incremental
catalyst driver behind them, AEO, for example. And I tried to take my bets on that front.
And, you know, even for someone like me, who's not been more than 100% long, for example,
you know, it's worked out very well, right? So I don't think that you, I think you, you
dance until the music stops playing. You can reass think that you, I think you, you dance until
the music stops playing. You can reassess if you're like a position, if you're like a,
an investor who has portfolio and like just wants to manage it on a day-to-day basis,
assess your thing daily, weekly, quarterly, however you do it, monthly, whatever you do.
And as long as your story's intact, story's intact. If, if, if you find yourself in a situation where
you can't sleep at night or you're thinking about something at night and you're like, oh, man, I hope that you're probably over positioned or you have two larger position, maybe scale that back.
But I don't want to play the game where I try to figure out where things end at this particular junction.
Maybe some point down the line, they'll and then in the near term i don't
know but for now that's not the game i'm playing for now i'm just looking for possible rotations
i talked about it on the previous space like i told you like you said the top excuse me
there are other avenues for people to kind of take take a look again energy broke out of down
trends a lot of these stocks uh kind of consolidating here above their moving averages
there's a second leg it's going to give you something to trade against.
Yeah, so I'll stop there.
I've been rambling for a little bit, but if you have any questions, I have to answer.
A lot of great things there.
The China piece, there was a headline that BABA and Baidu were going to develop or try
to use something like their own shit.
Is there a world where, separately from the fact that obviously K-Web and stuff are breaking
out, making a nice kind of curled recovery after Big Base, separately from that, is there
a world where they can do something like this without NVIDIA?
Or is there, yeah, I'm'm just curious to be any thoughts around that
so you know i i don't know if they can do it without nvidia so i'm not gonna pretend like i
do i i tend to believe that the the chinese china's ability to compete incrementally.
I'm not saying they're going to compete and like replace, you know, any of our major things.
But I tend to believe that, you know, we a lot of times here in like the United States
kind of because of how things have gone in the past kind of dismiss China's ability to
kind of compete on some on some fronts. And again, I'm not I'm not suggesting that they're going to compete in the past kind of dismiss China's ability to kind of compete on some on some fronts.
And again, I'm not I'm not suggesting that they're going to compete in the same way or
like have the same type of tech or anything like that.
But I do think that if you if you push if you push certain places and this is one of
those places to try to fend for themselves and figure out solutions for themselves, the
likelihood that they can kind of increases over time,
especially with the adoption of technology.
And so, again, what does that mean?
I don't know.
Could it mean that they just find a solution that works for them
that kind of allows them to have some mediocre tech compared to us?
Sure.
Would that create some sort of opportunity for expansion?
Probably. But that's kind of like how I view it. I don't know. I don't, you know, I'm not going to
pretend like I know, you know, what it means for NVIDIA or anything like that. I think the best
case for everybody involved is the solution that NVIDIA puts out there currently, which is the way that we maintain our lead
is we open opportunities for others
to need to use our product,
not to try to find different products.
So that's kind of like where I'm at.
But I think that the breakout that you spoke to
is kind of like for me as a trader,
not like as a China investor.
I don't know how people
could invest in it uh personally it's just a personal opinion but i i like to trade it right
so as a trader that breakouts material i think uh you know when people start to try to chase
value or try to play catch up or do any of that stuff you know these provide opportunities for
some types of investors.
And that's kind of like how I'm trading it, right?
So I think 52-week high today for BABA.
I think it broke out earlier in the year.
Tepper was all over the television talking about how great it was.
Got to 150.
Reset the move twice.
And so here we are today on a breakout of that 150 level i mean
if it is to continue that move is is pretty aggressive it still has significant upside
potential uh i think peak the trough sold out from 150 to you know 95 so probably 30 upside
right just on a technical basis does Does that actually happen? Who knows?
But the risk reward is, you know, use the five day,
use that one 45 level and trade it from there.
That's very interesting.
When I think about the investing versus trading versus active investing,
there's, you know, that whole gray area that encompasses that.
But you look at China,
you look at some of these names
that have built these bases for years at this point,
breaking out.
And I like what you said about competing.
It almost makes me think of like when Hyundai
or Kia kind of first came to market
with some of their cars, right?
And they were like, okay, we're just trying to compete.
And then they've replicated it enough that it's been, I guess what you could call it successful
for them. Yeah. So like, you know, I think if you're talking about competing with NVIDIA,
you're having a different conversation than we're having. The other thing I'll say is,
you know, even, you know, American technology, right? so American AI tech,
if you just go look at the people in charge
who have high positions in that industry,
and you take a look at where a lot of those people are from,
a lot of them are from Asia.
That doesn't suggest that Asia's universities can compete with the U.S. or anything like that.
But, like, there has to, logically, there has to be some, you know, people that have competent abilities in the industries that, you know, maybe learn a skill or get educated or work in certain industries and then go back and try to do it elsewhere.
certain industries and then go back and try to do it elsewhere.
So this idea that like it's a zero sum game, you know, in the,
in the initial periods maybe, but over time that,
that zero sum kind of flattens out a little bit.
And there is opportunity for people to kind of carve out certain niches,
which can benefit the stocks. That's, that's the only point of this conversation.
It's like, will it benefit a stock? So that's kind of like where I'm at.
And then the last thing on China, though, is, you know, they are still an important story for a lot of U.S. companies.
One of them being Tesla.
And, you know, if Tesla is to break out and if rates are to come down and if you've got like potential drivers for that stock, you know, if China is doing OK, that's another potential driver for that stock or those types of stocks as
well.
Appreciate that rundown.
Wolfie,
we do have about five minutes here till the close and obviously we'll keep
the conversation going.
I wanted to ask,
and I know some people had to drop.
We'll see if we can get some of them back in here and some others in here.
I am curious about Adobe earnings coming up here in a minute.
I saw Gary joined us as well.
We'll get some of his thoughts.
I'm just curious what Adobe does here.
We do have the earnings after the bell.
You talk about just sentiment being just super negative on that name.
We'll see what happens there.
Gary, safe stock talk for the for the next hour uh gary
welcome back great to have you on the space uh serious uh what you've been up to we still don't
have gary senior on the space i'm still confused why we haven't been able to get him but hope you're
doing well glad that you're uh joining us today what uh what's been on your mind lately nothing
i thought you were short on guests and that's why you invited me. But I do owe Evan a steak dinner because he gave me UNH,
and I'm still riding that one. I got half of my position out at 316, but I bought a bunch more.
I wrote to my subscribers in the podcast and stuff for the past few days. Apple was to sell
the event. And I just moved all my
Apple shares into QQQ because I didn't think that the market was done. But I thought Apple was
pretty stretched. I wasn't super impressed with it. And going on what Wolfie has just said about,
and you guys were talking about China and stuff, just look at KWeb, the ETF. I mean,
simple as that. You don't have to pick winners. But KWeb is up year to date 37%. And then the American tech XLK, I mean, that's 16%. So I think it's fairly clear that China's on the rebound. And I think some of those companies that are in China, you can probably look at them and Apple's one of them. If China comes back,
I think Apple does great. So I've still got Apple in my portfolio. And I always say in a bull market,
you're in a bull market until you're not. And so for me, I've been buying. In fact,
I was just typing up my list for tomorrow. I bought BMNR at a low on a dip. I bought Ethereum
on a dip. I bought Robinhood because
those guys are continuing to kill it with their summit. I bought PSIX. I bought UNFI and I bought
IREN. And the reason I bought IREN was very simple. Nebius popped on their earnings. And
back when they popped, I said, it's just popped too much. But IREN has been making money.
It's a similar thing.
It's not apples to apples.
It's apples to tangerines.
But I like that play, and that's worked out great.
So as far as I'm concerned, this market is fantastic.
I'm a long-term buy and hold.
I am concerned.
I did post in my newsletter today.
In December, the compound in Friends with Josh Brown had a gentleman on, and I don't remember his name, but they asked him, what's one thing that could
scare you in 2025? And he said, if the 10 year goes below 4%, he said, if the 10 year goes below
4%, we got bigger problems in the market. I am not a bond expert. Please don't at me with,
oh my God, you're completely wrong because I could be wrong.
But that stuck in my mind as we saw the 10-year dip under 4% again today. When was the last time that happened? It was April. And if you look at the monthly candles on this market from April till
today, you haven't had one red negative month. So I think you're still in a good market. I think
the Fed's going to reduce. I think Evan
still has me down for three rate cuts this year. And when I say three, I mean 75 basis points,
not three separately. So if they go 50, I still count my three as good. But those are my thoughts.
In this grindy all-time high markets, you as an investor on that perspective,
are you doing much right now? Or are you just saying, hey, thanks. You mentioned the UNH.
Is there much else that you've been doing on the investing side? Are you rotating things around?
How are you managing things here? I look at my 52-week sliders. And if something is stretched,
then I go back to my journal and I say, okay, why did I buy
this stock? Is it a long-term buy? Was it a hold? Where was my upside? Where was my downside? I
journal every trade that I do. And so like what I did with Apple, when I saw that Apple was close
to 240, it traded to 260, but we know 240, 30 times forward earnings with a 5% growth rate. I took that
and I moved it to QQQ. So I'm essentially rebalancing and I'm adding to my winners.
In my total portfolio, I wrote it up just now. I have five total losers in my portfolio.
Four of them are a portfolio that I'm an affiliate with, AlphaPix through Seeking Alpha,
which I absolutely love. But the only one that I'm actually down on is one that I bought like two or three weeks ago.
It was Coinbase. And the theory on Coinbase is that I buy IBIT and ETHA for my Ethereum and
my Bitcoin. Where's it housed? It's housed at Coinbase. So my theory is just long-term, hey,
that seems like a fairly good one. I know it's overpriced, but it's not a Coinbase. So my theory is just long-term, hey, that seems like a fairly good one.
I know it's overpriced, but it's not a huge position.
So I'm adding to my winners.
I'm cutting my losers.
But anything that I currently hold that's a big portion of my portfolio, I'm moving
more towards safety.
And I consider the ETF safety.
I don't consider cash safety.
Just be clear. I don't consider cash safety because
cash in this market, if you had cash at the beginning of the year, you're still regretting
it if you still have cash. So in my mind, I just don't view cash as a safety. Now, when we start
into a bear market or we start a downturn and the monthly candles start to look a little bit worse,
maybe I move towards cash. But even your S-Gov type stuff, you need to have your money working for you. So what am I doing? I'm rebalancing towards a little bit more safety, but I consider
that safety to be ATFs because time in the market beats timing the market.
A fun ring is more true than that last piece of it. The market did just close there, Gary. I could
ask some follow-up stuff, but a quick little update here. Market did close officially up
0.83% on SPY, 0.85% if you look at SPX NASDAQ, 0.6% over IndyX and 0.58% on QQQ. IWF, 1.84, closed right at the high of day.
And for anybody that does look at futures, of course,
we did get to the 6,600 psychological level right there at the close on ES.
And we're expecting Adobe numbers here in just a few moments.
We'll see.
Let me see what time those actually are coming out i looked earlier today and
i forgot so double check that rh is also reporting today which that name's been talking wolfie you
talked about that name on here haven't you yeah no i traded that one a couple times uh rh is
interesting because if you go back to liquidation day aka AKA liberation day, they actually had earnings on that day.
And the CEO was like,
I think it was like,
Oh fuck.
Whenever he saw the Trump headline.
So it's interesting.
He said that or he said,
Oh shit,
something like that.
But,
it's interesting.
It's,
it's rallied significantly off those levels.
I think it,
I think it bottomed out around like one 30 or something like that.
But, um, it's, it's been an uptrend quietly since. So, you know, off those levels. I think it bottomed out around like 130 or something like that. But
it's been an uptrend quietly since. So, you know, if they find some sort of follow through,
I think that one's also interesting because of the rate story, right? So they've been,
them and Wayfair have been like a net beneficiary of this, like, you know, rate policy change potential.
So any kind of like stabilization or any sort of like follow through, this stock could be at, you know, 200 day, which is like 260 real quick.
And then any sort of negativity that can come out of it, then people are probably going to reevaluate whether or not this move is justified.
100 days basically is going to be the linchpin 205.
Yeah, so I'm going to, let me see real quick.
I think, did I do one?
Yeah, so expectation is 321 EPS, revenue of 905 million for RH.
It's also a good read-through about whether or not the upper-end consumers
at all impacted
or affected by any of the macro stuff. So the last time around, they said they were operating
in the worst housing market in the last 50 years. And they're taking an investment approach to do
it. So we'll see. It's definitely a good read through. But on the guidance,
they're looking for 10 to 13% growth. And their Q2 revenue guidance of 8 to 10% growth as well.
So that included a 600 base point headwind from tariff disruptions. We'll see if you get any
read through on tariffs, any read through on the consumer softening or or anything like that or if the picture is clearer for them moving forward
i remember that actually yeah when that happened so yeah we'll see that'll be definitely
interesting i'm watching for rh and adobe are the two if i filter by one billion plus Adobe are the two, if I filter by 1 billion plus, those are the two that are on my list.
I'm sure there's some other ones reporting as well.
And I'm keeping my eye out for those that just got everything pulled up here.
I haven't seen anything just yet cross line, but they should be out any moment.
We're about five seconds away.
And I think that's when they'll come out.
We'll continue the conversation here a little bit.
There's a big move on Adobe Stock is moving up 7%
I haven't heard the numbers just yet
Big move on Adobe
I'm looking for those numbers right now
I am too, I'm looking for those numbers right now. I am too.
I'm digging.
Okay.
So 531 versus 518, 5.988 billion versus 5.9 1 billion.
So slight beat top and bottom line EPS up 14% year over year revenue up 11% over year
over year.
Not bad for growth wise.
It's probably why this, if the stock is responding, that's probably why it's responding.
Let's see.
Adobe. Yeah. there you go.
Stock's at 7%.
Did you read them out?
I think that beats their TTM growth pretty materially.
Let me see.
Oh, no, it doesn't.
This is a dumpster stock.
Stock's growing pretty nicely.
It's a narrative issue, right? Yeah. Yeah, it's a narrative issue, right?
Yeah.
Yeah, it's a narrative issue, for sure.
They had a lot of cancellations and people moving off on the back of the AI stuff, right?
So this is like, we talked about it, I think, last week.
It's a similar setup.
This one actually worked out, right?
one actually worked out, right? So it's a similar setup to, you know, that, that Lululemon, uh,
setup where you have stock that sells off from 585 to 330, basically in a straight line, uh,
left for dead, nothing, nothing optimistic, you know, from an investment standpoint, AI is
disrupting their business, et cetera. And, you know, the, the bar gets re-rated so low that a lot gets baked in.
You just have to be, right?
So now trading back to 100-day, any sort of like follow-through, 200-day sits at around 400.
So it's a pretty solid setup at this point.
The follow-through pin action stuff that I pay attention to, pay attention to Figma and, you know, the Qs in general.
Generally, this stuff kinds of moves on the back of these prints.
This 6% gap up to 371, we'll take it right under the 100 day.
Stock's pretty cheap.
17p growing revenue and EPS double digits.
I haven't looked at adobe in years
in fact adobe was actually adobe was the first stock i ever bought by the way which is funny
just funny random uh anecdote there but back in 2015 it was the first stock i ever bought
um it was only a trade but you know uh it was it was the first name so i have a little bit of a
personal connection to adobe from that perspective but anyway i haven't owned it or traded in years but i mean look at the ttm numbers right revenue in the last four quarters versus the
previous four up 11 eps in the last four quarters versus the previous four up 13.3 percent on this
current quarter double digit growth in both categories as well i don't know. It's pretty cheap. So Super Micro announced the broad availability of NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra Solutions.
Super Micro is now delivering plug-and-play, PNP-ready NVIDIA HGX B300 systems and GB300 NBL72 racks to customers worldwide. These solutions are purpose-built, pre-validated at system, rack, and data center scale before
shipping, enabling rapid deployment in the industry's highest performance compute density.
Stock's up, I think, 4% on the back of that.
Yes, I saw that headline.
Robinhood metrics just came out as well.
I want to call these out real fast.
Total platform assets at the end of August were 304 billion up 2% from the
end of July of 112% year over year net deposits,
$4.8 billion into Robin hood in August or a 19% annualized growth rate
relative to July.
That's that's a big number for august yep um retail's getting rich
equity equity notional trading volumes were 199.2 billion that's down five percent but it's still up
107 year over year options contract roughly flat compared to july which if you think about what the market's doing that kind of makes sense crypto volumes 14.4 billion up 21% from July to August
see what else we see in here that's about all I've got funded customers 26.7
million 304 billion though in total platform access those are good numbers for robin
hood and it sucked i can look at the the metric comparisons here but those numbers are almost
mind-boggling yeah those numbers are big and they're just going to get bigger you can't stop
the robin hood train really it's why i still own the stock. There's so many points at which, after I exercised those 15 and 20 calls,
I was like, okay, if it goes to $70, I'll sell it.
I remember I was telling myself that.
And then it got to $70, and I was looking at the metrics.
I was thinking about the story, and I was like,
I kind of feel like I'd be stupid selling it here.
And then it got to $100, and I was like, I thought about selling it again.
I sat down and I looked at all the numbers and I was like,
I don't know if I can justify it.
I mean,
the stock's getting more and more expensive as it's going up and up,
obviously,
because even though the growth metrics are good on the AUM side,
it's not necessarily immediately reflecting on the earning side.
And that's normal because it's a brokerage business.
But I just don't, I can't imagine a scenario,
unless we have like a lost decade,
which I guess is possible.
But unless you have like, you know,
markets flat or down for 10 years in a row,
like I just don't see a way where you can stop
the retail flow into assets trade.
Like that's just, it feels like a mega unstoppable trend.
Real,
real quick stock talk.
RH first move is down 15%.
So I'm not sure if you guys have the headline for it or not.
I don't have those numbers.
I was looking for those right now.
I don't know if Stipe,
but maybe he has those.
I couldn't find the numbers yet,
but I did see the stock just drop like a rock there.
Oh shit. The CEO said, Oh fuck. numbers yet but i did see the stock just drop like a rock there oh the ceo said oh
okay numbers are yeah pretty bad um 293 eps versus 321 expected so that's about a nine
percent miss on eps and then revenue also below estimates 899 versus 905 it's a big eps miss
revenue also below estimates 8.99 versus 905.
It's a big EPS miss.
Yeah.
So that sucks getting crushed.
And probably there's some extra bid under that name that needs to be flushed out because
it's been bid with the housing stocks lately.
So you need to flush out that bid as well now because it's a bad report.
So that's the thing, you know, these thematic trades.
I actually tweeted this today about, like I said, you you know there are some momentum stocks that are just momentum stocks you know they're one bad earnings
report on offering away from a crash and then there's other stocks that look like momentum
stocks when you look at them on the chart but if you really know the story and the thematic
they're much much more than that and when you're able to make that distinction that's what makes
you an elite stock picker the best stocks in the
market are the momentum stocks that are not just momentum stocks if that makes sense those are
always the best stocks in the market if you go through the last five years you pick any of the
market leading names and they will share that characteristic where they started off as well as
they appeared to be just momentum stocks and And, you know, over time, they adapted
characteristics of better companies, you know, earnings grew, grew, revenue grew materially.
And, you know, they kind of grew into their initial valuations. And now they're just riding
the trend of the upside. Those names are the names you want to own, in my opinion. And those are the
best. Those are those are the market leading names. If you want to post super performance in the market year after year
after year, you have to have some of those names in your portfolio. Now, not everything I own is
momentum. There are stocks I own that I think are misunderstood stories that have lower ATRs
than the stocks I typically trade and don't move as explosively as most of the names I trade.
But those are positional trades for me, right? Those are intended to fulfill a thesis over time.
When there is a catalyst store, like for example, like you mentioned, RH running with some of the
housing stocks, when there is like a hot air under that, is that kind of what you're describing here
of trying to distinguish between should this be running and sympathy or is it actually part of a broader catalyst going on?
Yeah, that's kind of what I'm saying.
It's like when you have, we talk about housing, we could talk about the space theme, we could talk about the nuclear theme.
We could any of these, for any of these thematics, it's the same thing.
For any of these thematics, it's the same thing.
What happens is that anybody related to the theme, any company related to the theme, when
the themes are hot intra-quarter, right?
In other words, in between two quarters.
So like Q2 earnings just ended, Q3 earnings are three months away, right?
So in that period, in that three-month period, things happen, right?
PRs get dropped, news cycles start or stop. Things happen, right? Things happen around the world. Like, I don't need to get into more detail to make that point. move in between quarterly reports as a product of the things that are happening around them in the
news or whatever, there is expectation being baked into those stocks. And knowing which stocks have
a probability of meeting those expectations versus the stocks that have no possibility of meeting
those expectations, that's where elite stock picking is born. When you find the stocks that have no possibility of meeting those expectations, that's where elite stock picking is
born. When you find the stocks that are getting bid and have a relentless bid under them, but also
have an ability to meet the expectations that are being posed upon them, Nebius is a great example
of this, right? Like a lot of data center names were running earlier in the year. I traded in and
out of a lot of them, but the one that I never thought about selling even,
never sold a share, was Nebius.
Why?
Because I knew.
I said, hey, look, there's a lot of hype in these data center names.
A lot of them are running.
You could probably own any of them and make money.
But in my view, there was only one or two
that had a real possibility of a multi-billion dollar deal with a hyperscaler.
And to me, Nebius was my favorite candidate.
So I never sold that one.
But there are other ones that I traded.
And it's that distinction to me
that makes great stock picking
is the ability to say,
yeah, all of these names are related to this theme.
They'll all run with the theme,
but only a handful of them will sustain those moves
because only a handful of them
have the qualities necessary to either benefit
from the tailwind in the industry or capture actual market share and earnings as a consequence
of it. And the vast majority of stocks you look at in these themes do not fit that, right? Like
the vast majority of stocks you look at are just purely hype. Their earnings are not going to
change as a result of these thematics. Their stock prices will in the short term, but they're likely
going to be met with either extremely dilutive offerings or really bad earnings reports or
really disappointing PRs. And that's when the air comes out of these things. That's when you see
them fall 40 or 50 percent. If you see a name that you think that you think is one of these market-leading names and it has one of those
events, you were wrong. Market-leading names don't lose air like that. Market-leading names don't
drop 60% on a bad PR or a bad earnings. So if you're in one of those names, you picked one of
the shitty ones. That's the harsh reality that you have to face sometimes.
You know, the stocks that are marketing names that you can rely on for a multi-month or multi-year basis, they will either A, recover those dips extremely quickly. I'm talking about V-shaped
recoveries, sometimes even intraday recoveries, where the stock will go down 11 or 12% off the
open and be bought up before the close,
or they'll come down into their moving averages, do a head fake, and then get bought up relentlessly for the following weeks. That's when you know you're dealing with a market leader. The stocks
that get left for dead after adverse events are not market-leading stocks. Market-leading stocks
do not get left for dead ever, ever. Look at Robinhood, look at Palantir, look at Tesla,
look at Amazon, look at NVIDIA look at tesla look at amazon look at
nvidia over the last 10 years look at some of the best performing stocks over the last 10 years
and find a point where they were left for dead there's there's none you know outside of market
crashes which everything gets crushed in a market crash but outside of like precipitous market
crashes those stocks do not get deserted where where do you balance? Because I know Wolfie does some diving into finding some good value plays.
Where do you balance market-leading stocks, like this is where I want to be,
and catch, okay, here's a dip on this stock versus a stock that's been beaten up.
But you brought up Lyft the other day, and you dug into some of the fundamentals.
You said, hey, there's a lot of value here where's the balance yeah there yeah i mean there there are there are
a lot of stocks in my portfolio that aren't momentum stocks like you know let me just pull
up my portfolio right now so materion for example which i opened sub 100 you know a couple months
ago you know that thing's trading 114 115 115. Now it's been a slow, steady
mover to the upside, but like, that's not a, an expensive stock. That's not a momentum stock.
That's not a market leading stock, right? It trades one X sales. Uh, and it's a beryllium
producer. Like it's not, I think it's in a sexy thematic. I think the fact that they're the only
integrated beryllium producer is, is actually a huge tailwind for them because of this new focus on rare earths in the United States and the fact that Beryllium has so many cross-industry applications.
But is it a sexy stock?
Go search Materion.
The only posts you'll see on Twitter are mine.
Right?
It's not a sexy stock.
Not a market-leading stock.
But I own it.
Same thing with Lyft.
When I bought Lyft in the 13s, go look up Lyft.
No one was talking about Lyft.
Right?
People were like, what the hell?
It's left for dead.
It's under all the moving averages. But I thought the value was compelling. So I bought Lyft in the 13s, go look up Lyft. No one was talking about Lyft, right? People were like, what the hell? It's left for dead. It's under all the moving averages, but I thought the
value was compelling. So I bought it. Genius Sports, when I bought it in 960, I thought the
valuation was compelling. Nobody was talking about it. Now, a lot of people are talking about it, but
that's up 30%. These are all not market-leading names, right? Lyft, Genie, Fubo, Penn, Huntington
Ingalls, Materion. I own all these names and none of them are market
leading names, but I still own them because I think there is upside as a consequence of the
stories and the fundamentals and the thematics. So yeah, I think you should own market leading
names. That doesn't mean you only, you have to only own market leading names. No, but I think
you should have them in your portfolio because like they are the super performers, you know, like anyone who has had Robinhood in their
portfolio this year in any meaningful size has done well. Right. Anyone who's had Palantir in
their portfolio in any meaningful size has done well. Like the market leading stocks tend to
reward their holders. That's why they're market leading stocks. And, you know, it's,
it's tricky as a new trader to make that distinction, because as a new trader or an
investor, you don't have really, you know, a system for research, or you don't really have
a system for how you narrow things down. And so you're kind of sporadic, you see stuff getting
mentioned, you know, you're like, Oh, I like nuclear, and someone mentioned the stock and it's a nuclear stock. So I'm going to buy it.
And that's about the extent of the thinking for a lot of people. That's dangerous because,
A, you don't know what you own. And B, you don't know the durability of that stock's exposure to
the thematic. If nuclear energy sees this great revival in the United States and you're dealing
with a name that's not going to see any sort of revenue benefit from that for another five or 10 years, are you really investing in the
theme? It may appear to you as you are, but your returns will be disappointed because the company
that you're investing in is not actually going to see earnings growth from the theme, right?
Once all the noise is over and the hype is over in nuclear or in quantum or
in robotics or in like any space and satellites any of these market-leading themes when the hype
is over 90 of the stocks are going to go down a lot but not a little bit like a lot like 70 80
percent down and then other names that actually benefit from the growth of the industry. Yeah, sure, they might go down a little bit when the hype goes down, but they will likely make new highs over the course of those years or months that the theme plays out. fundamental work, understanding industries, understanding peer relationships,
understanding, you know, how much upside there is to picks and shovels plays versus the core plays,
you know, deep diving, like the market, the industry leaders, right, the primary purveyors of products, for example, in chips, you know, you're looking at the chip designers, because
that's where all the money has gone in the first stage of the cycle. You look down the list of
chip suppliers, you'll find other names that are indirectly related to those chip suppliers
that can benefit from the growth of chip design and AI chip sales, right?
So if you look at everything on the surface, then yeah, you're going to just end up with the same names that everyone else owns,
and you're going to be subject to the whims of that volatility in those crowded trades.
But if you do the work, you'll be able to build smart, intelligent baskets to get exposures to the things you really believe in.
You know, like in my aerospace and defense basket, yeah, everyone talks about Kratos now.
Not many people were talking about it in the 20s.
Huntington Ingalls, still no one's talking about it.
I still own it. The Embraer Jets, maybe it got a little bit more exposure these last couple of years, but wasn't really being talked about in the years prior.
So many of these names have just been neglected. Mercury Systems, which I owned earlier in the year as aerospace and defense exposure.
Mercury Systems, I don't even think anyone on Twitter mentioned it once. Right. That stock did fantastically.
Standard Aerospace. I'd go on and on and on. I didn't find these names or buy these names because I used a Finviz scanner like everyone else on Twitter.
I didn't buy these names or find these names because I flipped through 100 charts and then, you know, filtered them by what's above the 20 day moving average.
And then like that's not how I find stocks. I find stocks by researching
what is happening in the markets, deep diving thematics and asking myself genuinely, who's
going to make money on this? Who's going to make money on the nuclear revival? Who's going to make
money on, you know, this new chip initiative to domesticate chip supply in the United States?
Who's going to make money on these things? That's what I want to know.
And those are the stocks that I buy.
And I try to, when possible, focus on smid caps.
Not always possible, because some themes just don't have any real genuine smid cap exposures.
But when possible, I try to focus on smid caps.
And right now, my portfolio reflects that.
Names like Energy Fuels for my rare earth metals exposure, right? That's's a three billion market cap. Centris Energy for my uranium enrichment exposure. Right. That's a three billion market cap. You knowbius was a smid cap when I bought it. Both of those are now large caps.
Outside of a handful of those names
that have grown from smid caps to large caps,
everything else for me is in that smid cap range
because I think those stocks have the most upside.
And I also think those stocks get the least benefit
of passive multiple expansion.
Like when thematics get hot,
there's this huge phenomenon of passive multiple expansion. Like when thematics get hot, there's this huge phenomenon of passive
multiple expansion, and it tends to reward the most well-known names first. Like this passive
climb up of stocks tends to go to the names that everyone knows, the household names, right?
When people think about AI, they think about the NVIDIAs and the obvious names, the Microns, the Broadcoms. That's what
people think about, Meta, Microsoft. And so those stocks benefit the most from passive multiple
expansion when the theme gets hot. But the other stocks in the supply chain beneath them,
those are the harder names to find. And in many cases, those names have dramatically more
percentage upside than their larger peers.
Nebius being the most recent example of that in the AI trade.
But there are many, many more examples, right?
Like, I mean, look at Centris Energy's performance versus all the other nuclear stocks, right?
The larger cap nuclear stocks.
It's outperformed all of them over the last six months.
And the same thing goes for the quantum trade.
The same thing goes for the space and satellite trade, right? Look at how Rocket Lab and ASTS have performed versus their
larger peers in those space. Look at how the legacy primes in aerospace and defense have performed
versus the Kratos' and the aerovironments of the world. They've dramatically underperformed is the
answer in all of those categories. Why? Because of all those reasons that I just said.
Anyway, Wolfie, what's up?
So I think the original question was,
or the original comment was,
finding stocks that are,
they have momentum,
but momentum is not the driver.
So if anyone's interested, if you go and listen to the space that, uh, the Wolf Financial space that was done at, uh, 1 PM Eastern time today,
and you just go to basically like where the two o'clock hour is about to start.
We had a nice back and forth about, you know, those types of that exact conversation, because I was talking with Amp, where I was saying that for the better part of six years now, I've held Oracle Navago and I sold most of it in the last couple of days. And I was explaining that I'm now looking for that next potential
momentum setup for similar types of boring names that can kind of because when when I bought
Oracle, it wasn't like a sexy AI play. It's played as a sexy AI play lately. It was like a boring
fucking, you know, networking name, right? So software name, database name.
So it's important to find, in my opinion, good businesses that can participate in the sexy theme.
Because you're more likely to hit on returns than to try to figure out what the winner is.
hit on returns, then to try to figure out what the winner is. Obviously, once there's a winner,
and it's like a clear winner, and it's easy to own NVIDIA, for example, own NVIDIA, right,
if you want to. But, you know, if you don't know what the next NVIDIA is going to be,
a good place to start is to try to figure out which companies have existing businesses that are solid,
management teams that are solid, sticky forms of revenue or whatever,
that can participate in that sort of disruption moving forward. So I think that's an important
point. If you're not someone that could dedicate an ample amount of time to try to figure out which small mid-cap business is going to be the next multi-b this robust business,
have a solid revenue generation
that can have this incremental tailwind
where maybe their margins expand,
maybe the use of technology helps their bottom line.
In other ways, maybe they can cut costs
because they could replace employees
with actual software, hardware, right?
That's kind of like the next iteration of some of these things to think of.
And then the other thing that I think people fall victim to is when we say AI, like on
a call or on a space or whatever, someone says AI, there's like a basket of stocks that
people think of as AI.
So they think of like NVIDIA, they think of Avgo,
they think of Oracle, they think of Amazon.
There's a basket of stocks people think of,
but there's different uses and different applications of AI
and they exist or technology in general,
and they exist in different industries
and can help different industries in different ways that people don't associate with AI, right?
So, you know, on that space I'm referencing, I talked about, you know, John Deere, for example, right?
Like, John Deere has an AI incubator.
Like, they literally have an incubator for AI products.
And so, it doesn't mean that they're going to invest in a company. No, but they will
figure out for themselves what will work for them to help bridge whatever gap they want to bridge.
That's just an example, right? And so if you start to think of it, this next iteration of this AI trade, you know, it's probably going to be,
you know, different types of industries or different types of companies using, you know,
these applications and the software that's been built to streamline their businesses,
to make their businesses more profitable. You know, some people have talked about biotechs,
for example, finding drugs or whatever it's just
like there's several examples out there i feel like there's different frames that people could
have and a lot of times that doesn't happen i feel like that there's plenty of opportunity
in thinking that way like what are what are other types of industries that are boring or other types
of industries that need disruption or other types of industries that need disruption or other types of
industries that are still you know in the old guard right they're still using like sequel or like
you know old spreadsheets and shit like that and i think once you start to think that way
and then parse it out for you know now of those businesses how many of them have you know, now of those businesses, how many of them have, you know, solid businesses,
the business is not deteriorating, the cash flow is fine, and then go from there, right? So I think
there's different ways to try to navigate that and skin a cat for lack of a better term. But I think
this next, this, you know, AI software 2.0, I think we're going to see a lot of these boring names
that aren't momentum leaders yet.
And next thing you know, they might be,
think like banking, think like services,
think insurance, think, things like that.
So I just wanted to touch on that
because you did bring up a point about
momentum names don't typically start as momentum names.
And that's absolutely true. But then once they get there, then you have two levers that get pulled, right? So if you go
back to if I just use a boring one, look at Apple, right? Apple now, I literally was on here two days
ago saying I don't think that the iPhone event should be, you know, an event, I think should
just be like a commercial release or something like that. Shout out to you, Evan, I know, an event, I think it should just be like a commercial or release or something like that.
Shout out to you, Evan, I know you're here.
But, you know, Apple, when it first started, you know, there were originally there were
like constant naysayers, like people want a keyboard, blah, blah, blah.
And then once that theme, that like frustration of this is how it's going to play out and there's going to be different avenues, once that was gone, and then most people started to navigate towards Apple, you didn't have to find the sexy thing.
You didn't have to find, like, you could have just bought Apple, right?
And then from there, they had the momentum, they had the phone growth, the revenue growth, different SKUs, product growth, dividend increase, share purpose, like they just started
layering on different levers that just drove the stock, right? And now we might be at a point where
it's tipped a little bit too far. But that sweet spot from like, call it 2014 till today there's a lot of different places where you know
they're they created like momentum avenues or different reasons to own the stock and i'm saying
this about apple which a lot of people on this panel ex-evin will say it's not anything that
we want to own today right so you know or in the last several years, right?
So if that's one that you can point to,
there's going to be hundreds of other ones
that probably exist in similar type of boring industries, right?
Like utility type of industries.
And I'm not meaning like literal utilities,
but just day-to-day utilities,
something that you just use or you don't consider sexy.
But, you know, the technological advances catch up.
And Honeywell's a decent one, right?
Yeah.
The Honeywell, you know, the defense thing kind of started to pick up on the,
you know, the sexy thing.
Like defense has never been like a sexy industry, right?
It's been like a necessary industry.
It's been a technologically advanced industry, but it's never been like a sexy industry, right? It's been like a necessary industry. It's been a technologically advanced industry,
but it's never been like sexy.
And currently it seems like at least with Andrel and Kratos,
and if you want to group in Rocket Lab, some other things,
which I know Rocket Lab is not, but if you want to group them in,
go for it.
But like suddenly they kind of like a sexy vibe to them.
And that momentum doesn't usually end in two, three quarters for those types of things.
It usually has lots of checks and balances, lots of resets, lots of retests,
lots of people poking holes in the story before it finally starts to grow
and finally starts to get included and starts to mature to a point where the stories run out.
So I think that's an important driver
that you don't take anything away from it.
Just take away anything else you did from this conversation,
you take away that a lot of times the ones that do the best
are the ones that have the boring businesses
that aren't momentum and they catch a momentum tailwind
in conjunction with that boring business
did i hear an avon sneak in here in the conversation i am i am i'm on the we're in
some not a great place to talk but i am here hanging out i had to listen i haven't had enough
stocks and spaces this week i had to come in and hang out. Yeah, I figured there was a lot of Apple slander on the spaces and when it was when yesterday, I was too deep into BMN are to talk about anything else.
We haven't even been slandering Apple yet dude.
Yeah, we saved it. We've been been waiting. And and of course you show up today BMN ours up what 5% 4.8
And of course, you show up today, BMNR is up, what, 5%, 4.8?
Could be argued that's why I'm here.
Evan, do you just take a quick victory lap about BMNR?
Like I said yesterday, it's a hell of a daily chart,
but that's a great move today on that thing.
A lot of stuff, obviously, great moves today in general.
As Dr. Tuck, some of what Wolfie was saying there,
it sounds like he kind of hit the nail on the head and something that you've preached as well.
A lot of people from a simplistic view will look at charts and they don't know how to distinguish the difference between, you know, a chart that maybe catches some type of catalyst.
Maybe it's it can become one of those momentum type of names.
It has some kind of tell him that gets behind it.
It has the valuation metric. you know what i'm saying yeah the context because because there's i could put
two charts in front of you that look the same and one of them is going to continue dying because
there's bad narratives there's nothing really yeah the other one's gonna reverse yeah yeah like like
an intel versus the uh what's another one that's recently turned around? I mean, maybe I don't want to go with like a Google or anything,
but I guess that would be kind of the point though,
is there's some charts that you look at the chart and these two charts look
the same maybe in May and today they're two completely different stories.
And it's that context that you guys are talking about.
Yeah. Yeah. That's, I mean, like,
I think the way I put this in a tweet a long time ago
was that the chart bros
never stay in the best stocks for long enough.
And the balance sheet bros
never buy the first stocks in the first place
because they're always too expensive.
And I think that's a pretty good way of explaining it.
The best stock pickers, in my experience, are the people who fall somewhere in the middle.
The people who know how to read charts.
The people who also know how to read investor psychology and catalysts and thematics and
understand where the money is going to go before it goes there.
The people who have a combination of those two things were
both technically literate and thematically literate is the way i'll put it are the best
stock pickers in my experience of all the traders i've met those are the best stock pickers and
that's why i've chosen to do things that way because of what i've seen you know i've seen
the technical traders and don't get me wrong most of my most of my friends actually who you know are traders who
I interact with on Twitter or elsewhere are technical traders so I'm not knocking like I'm
sure many some of them are in the audience right now I'm not knocking the people who trade setups
for a living I think that's great if you can look bottom line is if you're consistently profitable
doing anything keep doing it and don't listen to to me or anyone else on the criticisms
they're consistently profitable I don't care you shouldn't care you, keep doing it and don't listen to me or anyone else on the criticisms. For consistently profitable, I don't care. You shouldn't care. You should keep
doing it. But just talking about this idea of different strategies, the technical traders that
I know, as good as they are, the number one complaint I hear, and I'm only talking about
the people that I talk to, okay? I know there's different stories for different people out there.
But for most of the technical traders that I talk to on a regular basis, who I discuss ideas with and so on, the number one complaint I hear from them most often,
and we all do things suboptimally, right? There's moments, there's things that I'll sell
or mismanage, and I'll be like, oh, I did that suboptimally, right? And I'll reflect on it,
and I'll be like, how could I have beenimally right and I'll reflect on it and I'm like how could I have been more capitally efficient here you know should I have scaled in or scaled
out or whatever like we all good traders revisit suboptimal trades like that and try to improve
at least all the good traders I know and so these guys do the same thing and what what they often
say to me and to themselves is, I sold too early.
I sold the winner too early.
And I know for some of you, you're like, wow, that's a good problem to have, right?
Like, yeah, it's a good problem to have.
But when you're a professional trader or somebody does this all the time, it can be a pretty annoying problem if it happens consistently, because it means you're leaving a lot of money
on the table, right?
If you're a professional trader and you're sizing into things like with real money, like most of these guys are
doing that I talked to, you know, they're sizing into things with hundreds of thousands or millions
of dollars per position, right? When they're sizing in like that and the difference between
them capturing 10% on that move versus 30% on that move is an enormous amount of capital.
on that move versus 30% on that move is an enormous amount of capital. That's a lot of money.
And so it is an issue. It is something that technical traders revisit and say, I was in
this winning name, this market leading name that is now up 500% in two months, and I sold it in a
week for a 10% gain. And the reason that happens is because they don't know the story.
What they see is a strong chart.
They're like, oh, you know, this thing gapped up on high volume,
low volume pullback into the 21 EMA.
Structure looks great on the weekly and monthly.
Like, I'm going to take a stab here. They buy it. Stock surges 20% the next week on some PR. And they're like, boom,
nailed it. And they sell it and move on to the next one. Then let's say some of them,
they're looking through their charts two months later and they go back to it and they're like,
holy shit, the stock is three times what it was when I played that setup on it two months ago.
shit. The stock is three times what it was when I played that setup on it two months ago. And
that's okay. Again, if you're consistently profitable, it's fine. If you're making money,
you're making money. But like, there is something to be said about like allowing winners to work
for you rather than working to find winners. So I'll repeat that again, allowing winners to work
for you rather than working to find winners, because it is work to find winners. No matter what strategy you use, if you're a fundamental guy,
technical guy, catalyst guy, whatever, if you're all three, there's work involved to find quality
stocks. On the other hand, once you've found one, there's not as much work involved of just
letting that stock work for you. And if I had to attribute my performance, like the reason I'm able to consistently outperform
markets to anything, it's that philosophy of like, I don't detach myself from stocks once
they've proven themselves to be winners to me. Right? Like, very often, I allow price to narrow my baskets. You know, if I start with a basket
of five or six names, it's, it's very often not even my research that's narrowing it down. It's
the performance of those stocks that's narrowing it down. That's deciding which ones I keep and
which ones I sell. That's precisely what happened with my aerospace and defense basket, which used
to be seven names. And it's now just three names and names. And it whittled itself down to three names because three names outperformed the refs.
And so those became designated as the positions that I was going to continue to hold because they were winning.
They were proving to me through both price and the company's operation that they are the better names to own.
Right?
Like, I often say this, but you have to think of your team, your portfolio as a roster, like a football team.
Like, the players have to prove to you that they deserve to be on the roster.
And thinking that way about your portfolio, I think leads can lead to super performance.
that's kind of, I think the most simple and, and, and straightforward way to put it is,
is just operating under this veil of context and knowing that like any data set you're consuming,
whether it's technical, fundamental thematic, any data set you're consuming needs to be
contextualized for you to use it properly. Otherwise you're just throwing darts, right?
You're like, Oh, cool PR. I'll buy it.
Cool earnings report. I'll buy it. A nice theme. I'll buy it. That's throwing darts, which is fine.
If it works, it doesn't work consistently. You know, the real, the real, the, the great thinkers
and the great traders and the great stock pickers, they are meticulous with the way they think about things.
Like they're going through, you know, because there's always a trade that can be taken. I go
through a daily chart every day. I see a daily chart that I could trade, right? Every day I see
a stock with a low volume pullback into 21 EMA. If I bought them all, I'd have 500 positions,
right? And I'd have no ability to differentiate between them.
You know, even if I narrowed it down and said, I'm going to only buy low volume pullbacks
in the 21 EMA on stocks with strong structure on the weekly and monthly with a minimum of,
you know, 10% TTM growth.
That's like 100 names.
And that's a pretty specific barometer. So, okay, then I narrowed
it down again. Maybe I get down to 50. It's like, I'm still like, you can't buy all those stocks.
So to me, the best way to differentiate them is understanding where you expect the market to have
its attention, which themes you expect to be durable, which stories you expect to remain
sexy, to keep their sexiness. And it's easy for a story to be sexy. It's hard
for a story to stay sexy. And the names that operate in catalyst-rich or news-rich environments,
they kind of get a crutch when it comes to that, because they can continuously defer to the news
cycle and say, look, that's why we're relevant. Look, there's another executive order about
nuclear. See? See? Or there's another article about nuclear in Reuters. See? Or there's another executive order about nuclear. See, see. Or there's another article about nuclear and Reuters. See, or there's another deal like they can not literally point to these things, but the shareholders of those stocks can point to these things and say, oh, I still own the right thing because day, but you should prioritize context in your stock picking and try to avoid being overly emphatic on one data set over the others.
I think the more data you use, the better your stock picks will be.
I, like, will die on that hill.
I will die fighting on that hill.
And that's my pushback to the people who are purely technical or the people who are purely fundamental like
you know um i was sort of joking with uh kirk on twitter he was like he tagged me and was just
shouting me out and uh he mentioned a stock to me and i was like oh the charts you know the chart
needs to do some work before i'd get interested and he like said like he made up
some like harry potter term about technical analysis was just like sort of mocking the idea
of ta and and kirk's like a good guy and he's a good stock picker i mean this was all in jest but
like i was like i was like telling him i was like look man believe it or not learning how to read a
chart whether you think it's uh you know fiction or or magic or whatever learning how to read a chart, whether you think it's, you know, fiction or magic or whatever,
learning how to read a chart just makes you better, period.
Whether you know what type of, like, person or stock picker or trader you are, like,
it just allows you to have better entries, know where the areas of support are,
understand what's happening in the price.
Like, it's a mandatory thing to me if you want to be maximally efficient with your money.
So, yeah, I mean, like I said, I'll die on that L. Can you just say Evan's name next time? a mandatory thing to me if you want to be maximally efficient with your money so yeah i mean like i
said i'll die on that hill yeah can you just say evan's name next time just just directly call him
out i mean i think evan can kind of recharge now right he's learning slowly but surely yeah he's
getting there no i just i was just thinking about his uh his top holding bmnr oh yeah i mean that
was a hell of a chart so if he can't he's picking them good either way but
that was a hell of a chart oh i thought you just followed tom lee but either way that part's
interesting um what was i gonna oh you put out a tweet as well you're asking i responded to it
you're asking about you know what what name was nobody talking about and did anything i mean Did anything maybe pop up on the radar that you said,
hey, wait, maybe I do need to take a look at this.
Anything interesting there?
Not really.
I mean, there were a couple of names.
I saw somebody say like PLTR or something.
I was like, okay, here we go.
Yeah.
You missed the point.
No, I mean, look, there are a couple of names,
like you mentioned, NewBank, and I'd like to hear more from we go. Yeah. You missed the point. No, I mean, look, there are a couple names, like you mentioned, New Bank, and I'd like
to hear more from you on why you like that one.
But I wouldn't say even New Bank is necessarily an unknown story, you know?
I think a lot of people cover that stock well and have a lot of good opinions on it.
I think it's a great stock and great chart too.
I think it's a great stock and great chart, too.
But I sort of do those posts every once in a while to like remind myself that there are so few people doing real research.
And also to try to crowdsource.
That's the original intention, but it rarely works.
Like I don't remember the last time I a useful uh reply to one of those posts but it just
reminds me like how little research most people are doing which it which i love because that means
that my edge is probably going to stay sharp um yeah people just don't do enough work they don't
do remotely enough work i think when it comes to stock picking and it's why everyone sort of ends up in the rotunda of the same 20 or 30 names um you know and then they just like can't imagine owning anything else
but i don't know i think over time that will change i think as like this generation
of tens of millions of new traders which is literally tens of millions of new traders, which is literally tens of millions of new traders,
get more confident in their own process,
I think that'll change.
I don't know how long it's going to take,
but for now there's definitely a big herd mentality phenomenon with retail.
Do you think that sticks with what we're seeing with
robin hood and just retail as a whole you know what four years ago when we were kind of that
little peak there was a lot of this like just chasing every meme name and names back and forth
but this time around yeah we've seen some of the mean stuff happen but we're seeing a lot of like
the herd mentality go into the same name, like these cult stock names.
You could throw Hood and Palantir both into those, and retail are big in those names.
Is retail getting smarter?
That's probably part of the argument, too.
But it seems like the herd mentality is a little bit better, and it's like strengthening with all this retail participation in the market.
I mean, we just saw $300 billion with Robinhood.
Retail is becoming a more important part of the market because they're finding ways to affect market volatility.
They're finding ways to punch above their weight.
And retail is not doing this in some concerted effort.
It's not like – I mean, I guess maybe Wall Street
bets is a concerted effort to some degree, but for the most part, retail is not doing this as
a concerted effort. The reason retail is being able to influence the market to a greater and
greater degree is for multiple reasons. First of all, derivatives and leverage. Second of all,
their focus on smaller market caps. And third of all, the blanket growth in both volume and percentage participation.
When you take all three of those factors into account, the first factor really is dedicated to this idea of zero DT leverage, options exposure over equity exposure, far out of the money calls.
I'm talking about very far out of the money calls to produce gamma squeeze effects, targeting of high short interest stocks,
all of those things. Those are all the drivers and the weight. That's how retail is able to
punch above their weight. That's how with a few billion dollars, they were able to create
the GameStop squeeze, which put 30 or $40 billion institutions under pressure.
That's not possible. They're able to punch above their weight because of the way that they are
attacking leverage and derivatives with zero DT and with far out of the money options. So that's
a behavioral thing. And on the other hand, they're getting richer. That's just flat out true. You
look at the retail accounts that were open the last five years, and you look at the net value, you look at Robinhood's AUM, all the metrics say the same thing.
Retail is getting wealthier and actually at quite a rapid pace in the last five years.
So they're targeting shorter term instruments, higher lever instruments.
They're getting richer doing it.
In other words, the markets are rewarding them for doing it, which is behavior reinforcing.
Right. When you get rewarded for doing something, you give a dog a treat for doing something,
he's going to keep doing it. And the retail community is functioning that way too. Leverage
is getting higher and higher. Calls are getting further and further out of the money. Why? Because
they're getting paid for doing it. The people who were buying $100 Robinhood calls last year got
paid. The people who were buying $100 Palantir calls last year got paid big. And those guys are
going to do it again on another stock or the same one. And so they create this perpetual
dramatic level of speculation, and they have the money to do it now too. You're talking about 30%
to 40% of notional volume now is coming from retail. That's insane. And that number used to be under 20%. You know,
you look at the zero DT options exposure, it's a north of 65% for retail pools. That's nuts.
Then you look at on top of both of those factors, household participation, new highs, new highs,
new highs, new highs, last four years, right? That household participation will be at 70 plus
percent by 2030. I mean, 70 percent of American households will own stocks.
Every child born in the United States will have $1,000 allocated to stocks.
And on top of it, the people who are already speculating are getting rich.
They're getting rich fast.
And they're deploying that money into the same places that made them rich, which means
even more speculation.
And then on top of all of that, these same people are set to
inherit trillions of dollars in the biggest inheritance event ever in the next 10 years.
Like, where does that point? All of those things that I just mentioned point in the same direction,
which is stocks up and fast and extremely high volatility events and dramatic flush outs and 30 percent peak to drop
declines whenever there's bad news like there was earlier this year so buckle up you know because
you know and and add on top of all of that shit i just mentioned add the inevitability of
tokenization of assets and 24 7 trading on top of all that shit i mentioned on top of the inheritance
on top of the speculation on top of the concentration and leverage like that is a powder keg and when it ends it will end
so badly so badly it will end like in forget about tears it will end in like worse than tears
for a lot of people um and so just pray that there's runway,
is what I can say.
Because, you know, I don't know
when the music's going to stop,
but pray that there's runway
because this is such a powder keg of leverage
and money that is only going to get
more powder keggy
in the next five or ten years
as these kids inherit millions of dollars
from their boomer parents
and put that money into stocks. these kids inherit millions of dollars from their boomer parents and, uh,
put that money into stocks.
So yeah,
buckle up.
It's going to be fun.
Definitely will be very interesting.
I mean,
24 hour options trading tokenized stuff.
I mean,
goodness gracious. Like if you didn't sleep now,
suck talk.
Yeah,
I know.
I'm already,
I'm already trying to
fucking find a solution i'll never have to sleep again yeah of course yeah where's the uh
neural yeah neural link this is gonna solve somebody neural link solves sleep yes
without maybe that's the solution that we all need uh The NewBank one, I am, as far as like a thesis wise, like I know
people have caught onto it. It's digital banking. It's similar to SoFi, I guess, in some ways for
those that aren't familiar with it, but you've presented the thesis around Robinhood, the big generational passing, I guess, of inheritance and investments, money,
whatever you want to call that term, where hood is by far in the front of the line to,
you know, to capitalize off of that, right? I have a similar thought with digital banking and just like Latin America and how Latin America is generationally probably
behind one, like a generation behind the U.S. And I talked with Wolfie about this and some other
guys before, but essentially in Latin America, you have a lot of people that come from a generation
where their parents distrusted banks and maybe still do a little bit.
But the newer generation is more, you know, probably my generation down.
So I would say like 25 to 40 year olds, you know, people also like entering the job force.
They are way more open minded to the to banks in general.
to banks in general, credit is also something that is,
the American credit system is much different
than pretty much anywhere else in the world.
So credit has not been a big thing in the US,
I mean, outside the US comparatively.
But I'm seeing that pick up,
I'm seeing firsthand people that are now getting credit cards
and stuff down here in Latin America.
It's where I am in Mexico. It's also happening with Colombians that I've spoken to, with Argentinians
that I've spoken to. And these people, you have a generation that are now, one, they need the
technology side of stuff because everything's going digital. Kind of what we saw happen in
the early 2000s where everyone was starting to get debit cards and credit cards and stop, you know, who do you ever see write a check
anymore?
Most people don't even have a checkbook these days.
I mean, some of the older generation still does, but most people don't even have checkbooks.
They go, give me an account that does not have any type of, any type of checks or whatever
monthly fee.
I just need a debit card where my check gets deposited in there. I can spend it out. I can do ACH, all this stuff. And that's kind of the
generational flip that is happening in Latin America right now that I really think
NewBank is one of them. I mean, Mercado Libre has some banking side of their stuff too that
we've spoke about on the space before, but there is a generational shift to technology,
to digital banking, to banking in a generational shift to technology, to digital
banking, to banking in general, and to credit products that's happening that I do. I have a
very strong belief and thesis around this, that you're going to see digital banking, e-commerce
type of businesses, people that are, their parents kept their money at the house. You have to think
about maybe even a generation behind where the U.S. is.
So think about your grandparents and how maybe they didn't trust banks back in the 50s, 60s, 70s, going into that era.
And now you're seeing that one generation behind catch up in Latin America.
And I think NewBank, that's kind of my base thesis.
I don't want to sit here and ramble forever about it.
But NewBank is right in the forefront of this. The legacy banks are trying to compete. And we see,
you know, the legacy banks in the US have done a good job competing, but they're not capturing a
new generation. You already know growing up in the US, you've heard of Chase Bank and Wells Fargo
and whatever else is on every corner in the city that you live.
But down here, it's just a little bit different because people had such a distrust.
So that's kind of where I'm at on that side of things.
And we are right here towards the top of the hour.
We've talked a lot about stock picking.
We're going to jump into a conversation here.
We're going to speak with Adam Patti over at VistaShares.
You guys have seen him before.
You should be familiar with him a little bit.
If you're not, make sure you give him a follow and check out.
And definitely stay tuned for this because we're excited for Ackie, Bill Ackman ETF based.
And I'm going to let Adam intro this well.
But we talked a lot about stock picking.
You heard Stock Talk talk about kind of his process and stuff.
You heard Wolfie talking about picking stocks and you hear a lot of people in this app that seem to be in
every stock around the world it's it's interesting on the last uh piercing square sorry if my kids
are really loud in the background here um bill ackman only has nine stocks i'm sorry did i count
that wrong let me double check here one two, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 stocks.
I'm sorry. 11 stocks in his portfolio. And a lot of people seem like they own everything. They want
to trade everything. But Bill Ackman, one of the greatest to do it. A lot of people follow this.
I would make the argument, Adam, as I welcome you in here, that a lot of people are following
Bill Ackman as much as they're following Warren Buffett these days. It seems a different strategy,
maybe a different generational portfolio stuff.
But when the 13Fs came out, I saw as many people talking about Bill Ackman as I did Warren Buffett this year.
But Adam, I wanted to give you a chance to jump in, introduce yourself and kind of kick us off here a little bit.
Well, thank you very much.
Thanks for having me on.
And yeah, I mean, we're really excited about Ackie.
It's a really interesting product. I mean, we, you know, we had tremendous success with OMAH, you know, invest like Buffett, about 15% annual income paid monthly. So, you know, seeing how that worked out, you know, we started talking to investors, doing our research and saying, well, you know, would you guys be interested in other legendary investors if their portfolio construction process fit into an
ETF structure and made sense for a non-institutional investor. So we did a lot of research. We looked
at dozens and dozens of managers out there and we were looking for managers that tended to have high
conviction picks and longer holding periods.
You know, we weren't looking for managers who were, you know, rapid fire trading,
you know, hundreds of trades a day, hundreds of positions.
We didn't want managers who did a lot of kind of hedging of their long positions,
which was, you know, it's hard to kind of put that into a portfolio, into a 40 act fund.
So, you know, fortunately, Bill Ackman, who we have tremendous admiration for for many, many years, and to your point is he's got a, you know, very high profile.
You know, he's on X constantly, and, you know, he's just an amazing person. So,
you know, we did the research, we looked at his portfolio, and, you know, it suited really well
for the ETF wrapper. And we thought, wow, what an opportunity to kind of democratize alternatives, right?
To bring kind of institutional class hedge fund strategy to a broader audience.
And, you know, then what we did is we layered on the same data driven option strategy as we did with OMAH to generate that 15% annual income target and we pay it monthly.
So we're looking at 1.25% per month is what we're looking to pay out.
That's very interesting.
Like I said, maybe it's just me, my personal exposure on this app and in these different
conversations, but I pay more attention personally to Ackman.
I do pay attention to Buffett.
I pay attention to all of them.
These are legendary stock pickers.
Tell me a little bit about Ackie here.
I think people really, and we saw the launch of it,
and it's doing fantastic.
So congrats to you guys.
It's ticker A-C-K-Y.
I've got it right up there in the title.
I'll get something pinned here in just a second.
But tell us a little bit about, you gave us a brief intro,
but what is inside of Ackie? And are you guys following Bill right along with him? What's the strategy
based on this? Yeah. So what we do is we do look at the 13 Fs. And as you mentioned, currently he
has 11 holdings and that's kind of typical, anywhere between 10 and 20 over time. And if
you look into the
portfolio, you know, his top holding is Uber. Then he has Brookfield Corporation, a big investment
manager. He's got restaurant brands, Howard Hughes holdings. And then he has Amazon and Google,
two share classes of Google or Alphabet, Chipotle, Hilton, Hertz, Seaport Entertainment Group. So,
you know, what's interesting about his portfolio that it's a really interesting mix of kind of growthy stocks like Amazon and of course,
Alphabet and Uber. But then he's got some really interest rate sensitive type stocks in there that
should do quite well when we see a dip in rates, hopefully soon, you know, with the restaurant type
brands, restaurant brands and Chipotle, and of course, home builders like Howard Hughes.
So those should tend to perform really well in a lower rate environment. So, you know, it's a nice
mix. You know, I guess I'd call it more of a growth tilted portfolio, of course. But what we
do is, so we look at the 13F filings and everyone says, well, they're delayed, they're delayed. So yes. So basically what we are on the third, we're delayed by about an average of 45 days
on the 13Fs, assuming on average that he does the transactions in the middle of a quarter,
right? So a 45 day delay on average. But what's interesting is that Aki is an active ETF.
on average. But what's interesting is that Aki is an active ETF. So while we do rebalance quarterly
to pick up anything that he does during the quarter, if we get wind of something that's
happening intra-quarter, whether there's SEC filings made that he's taking control positions
or whatever it is, we can make those changes in the portfolio right away, immediately.
So we have that flexibility and we think that's really important.
But the reality is that he doesn't make a lot of changes to his portfolio.
He did make some changes this quarter.
He brought Amazon in a bigger way, but he's not doing a ton of trading.
And that's, again, why we chose this as our first or second product behind the Buffett product, because his portfolio is perfectly suited for a 40-act fund, for an ETF, and for the type of investors that we're looking to get in front of.
kind of read my mind on a next question I had there. I was like, every once in a while, I,
you know, I follow Bill Ackman and next thing you know, I've got a five page essay tweet that he
puts out around something, which sometimes it's not stockier than it, but most of the time it is.
And so like Hertz, we know Hertz and Uber, he's had some stuff around that. And I wanted to ask
you kind of what you just answered there. If Ackman comes out and says, Hey, we're looking
at adding this, or if he's, you know, in CMV CMBC or somewhere and he's got a new idea, are you guys going to adjust with that in real time?
And it sounds like you guys are. We are, but only if it's a real change, right? So if he speculates
that something might be on his radar, we're not going to jump into that. We're going to wait to
see if there's an SEC filing or some other, you know, substantive information to ensure that we're making a change that he is actually making.
You know, we don't want to front run and speculate.
Right. So we'll wait until the end of the quarter if we don't get, you know, the solid information that a change has been made.
But again, you know, people say, well, it's delayed. It's delayed.
All right. Well, again, an average of 45 days is not much of a delay. You know, we could be buying it cheaper
than, you know, it could be more expensive or cheaper based on, you know, where the markets
are at that point. So, you know, we think it's a very solid strategy. You know, we stress tested
it over many years. It's very rigorous in the way we developed it. It's an institutional class strategy,
you know, trying to mirror an institutional, one of the best institutional investors in the world.
And, you know, we have tremendous faith in him and we view this as a tribute to him. Now,
to be clear, we are not affiliated with him or Pershing Square in any way. I like to make that
clear. You know, we've developed this as, you this as a way to broaden his knowledge to a broader investor base and bring it out to the masses.
And that's what we've done with Omaha, OMAH, and now we're doing with ACKY.
Omaha, I'm contractually obligated to just yell like Peyton Manning every time I hear that.
Paul, I'm contractually obligated to just yell like Peyton Manning every time I hear that.
Speaking of OMAH, the launch of this ACI, it looks like a lot of volume came in already.
It seems like the launch of this one, and it kind of goes back to my original point that maybe more people are paying attention to ACI now.
But OMAH, two legendary investors here.
And how has the launch been?
When did it officially launch?
Was it on the 9th?
Yes, it launched on Tuesday 9th. And I've been in the ETF market since 2001. This is the most
robust product launch I've ever been involved with in my entire career. I was shocked and
way beyond expectations. I think when we launched it, I think it did about 6,000 shares
traded and it took around 15 trading days to get over 100,000 shares. ACKY launched with 252,000
shares traded. Yesterday it did 275,000. Today it did about 125,000. It's already over 10 million.
Well, we have creation units that are clearing now. So I think by Monday or've, it's already over 10 million in, well, we have creation units that are
clearing now. So I think by Monday or Tuesday, it'll be around 10 or 12 million based on the
creation units we've already received in the, to date. So it's growing like, like, incredibly,
I mean, much, much more steep trajectory than OMH. And, you know, OMH has been an extraordinary
success. It's, we're just nipping 500 million for OMH. And OMH has been an extraordinary success. We're just nipping 500 million for
OMH right now. Wow, that's huge. Big congrats on the launch here, of course, a crazy launch.
When you say these volume numbers, it makes me think of a 2x leverage stock ETF that comes out
and a bunch of traders jump into it and they're probably not going to stick with it very long. But this seems like there's a lot of, I mean, maybe it confirms my suspicion that
a lot of people are like, hey, I'm following Ackman probably more than anybody else. So
it's great that you have this product to the market. What are your thoughts around,
you mentioned some of the portfolio holdings, Google, Amazon, Howard Hughes, Chipotle,
he's got some Hilton in here. Did I say Uber? I don't
know if I said Uber, Brookfield. The balance of his portfolio and his strategy, just what
are your general thoughts around that? It seems like a well-balanced spot to maybe allocate
part of your own portfolio.
I think it's, I mean, look, who am I to say anything about what he's doing, right? I mean,
I'm not as smart as him, but it's a very interesting portfolio as i mentioned earlier it's it's you
know we've got some big growth names in there um that many might consider undervalued you know the
alphabet for instance um where he's got two share classes that together comprise i'm looking at it
now around nine you know about 16 of the portfolio is in Alphabet. We've got about 9%
in Amazon. So, you know, it's a nice chunk and some, you know, nice names right there. Uber is
the biggest holding at 20%. But what's most interesting to me is that given the environment,
you know, having the Brookfield Corporation, which is, you know, one of the largest investment
managers, or Howard Hughes, which is one of the largest developers of planned communities,
you know, these are more interest rate sensitive plays.
Certainly the restaurants, the Chipotle, right?
Restaurant Brands, which is one of the largest holders or owners of Burger King and Tim Hortons,
Popeyes.
So, you know, as interest rates drop, I think we're going to see those types of companies
really respond well.
And so I'm pretty excited about that.
And overall,
what's interesting about the portfolio, you know, if you look at OMAH, it's a value tilted portfolio. You know, Warren Buffett is renowned for his value orientation. You know, I would,
you know, this is more growthy, of course, you know, Bill Ackman is looking for growth in his
portfolio, which is why he's outperformed the S&P 500 consistently over so many years, but a
little more volatility in the
portfolio, but the pattern of performance is very interesting. So, you know, OMH, you know,
it certainly goes up and down, but it's more measured in its movements, a little more,
less volatile portfolio. This is a little bit more of a volatile portfolio. So, you know,
today it was up, I don't have the last close number,
but I think around 1% or, you know, 0.75, you know, so the performance is there and which is
interesting because it is a options income product, right? So when, with any options income product,
you know, your, the ETF will never keep up with a portfolio of just the stocks without the options, right? Because,
you know, there's no free lunch. So when you're paying out 15% a year, that's coming from
somewhere. So you can expect somewhere between, you know, 70 to 75% of the upside and 85% of the
downside. So the options dampen the volatility because you're getting that income on a monthly basis. But it will certainly move more than OMH or QUSA, our quality
income product, which had a huge day yesterday when Oracle went up 36%. It's its top holding.
So yeah, I mean, it's a well-designed portfolio. It's very different than I think most investors
have. I think there's companies in here that most investors don't have exposure to.
So I think it's a nice diversifier to your core equity holdings.
Tell me a little bit more about the distribution stuff there. I would love to hear about OMAH as
well, but when is the distribution going to happen? And it does have basically a distribution
product through it. You're mentioning
the options and stuff there. So it's not just like if I took my own portfolio and I said, okay,
well, I'm going to put 20% in Uber and et cetera, et cetera, and try to copy Ackman, or at least
use a portion of my portfolio to replicate it. This has actually got some added benefits to it
with the distribution. Yeah. So the interesting thing is, so we launched it on the 9th and
typically we want to pay out distributions monthly, you know, 30 days, right?
We actually set the first declaration date for ACCI to be 926.
So that's in a couple of weeks.
We aligned it with OMAH and QUSA, so all of our target 15 products pay out on the same date.
So declaration date is 926, and pay date is 9, X date is 929, and then pay date is on the same date. So declaration date is 926 and pay date is 9, X date is 929. And then pay date
is on the 30th. And the way we run the options is the same with OMH and QUSA. So the way we do it
is very data driven. We're writing calls out of the money across the entire portfolio. We're not
leaving anything uncovered. And what we're trying to do
is how far out of the duration of the options will depend on the volatility of the underlying stocks.
But what we're trying to achieve here is not to maximize income. So some of the other ETFs out
there, they're paying out these massive distributions on a monthly basis. They're
looking to maximize income. We're not trying to monthly basis. They're looking to maximize income.
We're not trying to maximize income.
We're trying to hit 1.25% per month.
We don't want 126 and we don't want 124.
So we're setting these options and we're pulling the positions off each company when we hit that 125.
And if we happen to make more than the 1.25% on a monthly basis, we're rolling that back into
the NAV. And if there's any dividends paid on the underlying securities, that's not part of the 15%.
We're rolling those dividends back into the NAV as well. So, you know, it's a very nice,
it's more of a conservative strategy. I mean, people might say, well, 15% is still a very high
number. I mean, certainly it's a very robust
number. We're excited for it. That's why we set it at target 15. But in the scheme of some of
these other ETFs in the universe, it's not that high. So investors should not experience NAV
erosion like they've been upset about with some of the other products out there. And if you look
at OMH or QUSA, they haven't had the't had the nav erosion either i mean the performance has been strong and
you're getting your 125 each month so we anticipate you know on 926 we're going to declare 125 for
acky and and pay it out and be consistent because we're looking for stable consistent
payouts we're not looking we want people to know what they're getting and when they're getting it as simple as that um can i ask you a quick question um you know if we go
the other way in a world this hasn't happened yet but like a what if we get like a 1.2 percent
distribution on a month do you think like within that year to still get to that 15 there would be
a month where it is 1.3 or do you think it really is that 1.25% target per month?
Well, that's a great question. So yes. So if we missed a month, we're going to look to make it up.
That's the only time we would look to pay out more, which is why we don't want to miss any
months, right? We want to keep it very consistent. But you're right. There's no guarantees. Anything
could happen, you know, and we could make a mistake, the portfolio manager to make a mistake, something could happen in the markets that is screwy. So yeah, I mean, look, we put target 15 in the name of the product. So we better hit that 15. So we're going to do it.
Great answer. One of the other things, how active are you guys managing these things?
I think about, you mentioned how Oracle had the day that it had, obviously.
And when those things start moving, I know if you guys have any options around those,
you guys are probably having to actively jump in and you and the team.
And first off, I'm just glad that, you know, if I'm in a product like one of these,
I have a team of professionals with years of experience that are managing this stuff.
But how active are you guys in these portfolios?
You mentioned that Ackman doesn't make a whole lot of changes to it.
But if the underlying makes a big move, are you guys actively having to adjust anything in there?
And how active is that?
Right.
So on the equity side for the core portfolio, it's the rebalance quarterly.
side for the core portfolio, you know, it's, you know, the rebalance quarterly. And then,
of course, we have the active overlay if we need to make intra-quarter changes based on solid
information. We don't anticipate much of that happening, frankly. You know, the investment
committee is there to identify risks and opportunities and see if there is solid
information where we need to adjust the portfolio based on a change that happens that we want to
capture before the end of the quarter. Where the true active management does come in
is on the options side, as you kind of alluded to. It's extremely active, and it's really active for
a couple of reasons. So daily, there's dozens of trades being made across these products,
because prices changing of these products, like when Oracle
happened, of course, that was a, you know, we had to obviously adjust the options portfolio to
account for that. So, you know, we have a team that, you know, has a lot of experience doing this,
runs around 20 billion, I think, in these products right now or options strategies generally.
And the other reason why we have to be active is because with
a product that's growing, such as ACCE or OMH or any of our options strategies, you know, as new
money comes in, you need to set new options positions on that new money, right? Because let's
say you have a dollar in the portfolio, you have all your options set, but then $10 more come in, you need
to set options on that additional $10, right? So that's a daily process. When we're getting
creation units every day, we're constantly setting new options. So if you look at the portfolio for
OMAH, for instance, I don't have it in front of me exactly, but we only have 21 equity holdings in that product in omah and it never
will deviate from 21 equity holdings but the number of holdings in the portfolio here it is
112 positions in the portfolio so there's 21 equity positions and the rest is options
because the product is we're getting creation units every day we've got to create new options
positions on those new position on the new equity or the new dollars, the new investments that are coming into the portfolio.
Yeah, that's really interesting. I think about obviously the move in Oracle and how much it
goes up in a day and the next day just kind of continues. And I can picture your team just
not scrambling, but calmly reacting to it, but having to make some quick moves there. And I just think about, gosh, I see a move like that in my portfolio.
I'm like, ah, do I sell?
Do I readjust?
And I was curious if like in QUSA, for example, that's where you guys have the Oracle, correct?
Yes.
So in QUSA, it's your top holding.
You rebalance that at the end of the quarter or you say, hey, we want to keep this, you know, under a certain amount.
Like if for some reason it was a 10, 12, 14 percent, are you guys going to adjust that
or you say, hey, we wait till the end of the quarter?
You know what?
We could adjust it because, again, we have the active overlay.
But, you know, there's no plan to do that right now.
You know, what we're trying to do is bring transparency in
the core portfolio. So there's a rule, there's a set of rules that runs the rebalance and,
you know, how we come up with the portfolio. QUSA rebalanced around three weeks ago. So it's a
pretty new portfolio right in there. So, you know, I don't, if Oracle got out of control, I mean, right now it's at 9%,
but that was as of yesterday. So I think Oracle is down 7% today. So that'll go down to around
8%. So I think that's still in the realm of us being comfortable. Now, if Oracle went up to 20%
of the portfolio, you know, QUSA is not supposed to be an ETF that has 20% holding in one position. So we probably would carve off part of the position there and divot it up between the
other top 10 holdings, for instance.
But right now, I think we're in a safety zone.
So we'll stick with where we are.
Appreciate that, Adam.
Sam, are you with us up here on stage mr sam saw there he is
before i move on because i'm definitely gonna ask adam uh for an update around ais which is
absolutely crushing it i know you'll have some thoughts there too but before we go that far
ackee and omaha omah any thoughts around this or are you excited about it i know you've followed some of the pershing square stuff pretty closely yeah i do i mean you got 20 of google here um it's
unfortunate the fund didn't start a month ago when google was around 160 170 bucks um clearly it's
made a big jump today hey but in the last couple of days the ac is up one percent so you're
definitely beating the market there which is
really good um considering that uh i see i see 53 cash here i think you're explaining that one
earlier um that i would say for for an etf that's 50 cash moving one percent a couple days is still
really good well just be clear let me jump in there you look You're probably looking at our website and as with any ETF launch, there are data feed errors.
Ah, okay. There you go, man.
Yeah. So I apologize about that. And that's been annoying. We're trying to get that fixed.
It's not, there's, you know, the cash is attributed to the options positions. And so it's not, it's not accurate.
Okay. All right. But I mean, nevertheless, though, it is nice to see Hertz up 6% today.
I have no idea why it was up 6% today.
But at the same time, I think everything was up today except for a few holdings here.
But I mean, still still really good on the day.
Regardless, I am a big fan of how Bill Ackman really has a portfolio concentrated in just
the single digit number of positions, which is really good.
I mean, that's really going to create outperformance.
I feel like with a lot of ETFs, they have too many positions that are across multiple sectors.
It's one thing if you have a software ETF or whatever, but if you have an ETF where
it's basically just the market, but concentrated in certain positions, you're not going to
get that outperformance. Obviously, you could have an infant factor in there as well. But it's basically just the market, but concentrated in certain positions. You're not going to get that outperformance.
Obviously, you could have an infant factor in there as well.
But it's actually pretty interesting.
I didn't realize that you guys are returning about a 50% dividend to shareholders.
And also on top of that, like you're saying, you guys look at the SEC holdings that First
Game Square might be releasing.
But how do you know? Okay, so you
see an SEC, right? And as a retail trader, I didn't know that I guess they do make these
forms available in real time or at market close. But I had always thought when it comes to Pershing
Square that you only see changes he made his portfolio when that 13F comes out. So with that being said, do you think there is a chance where you won't be able to know
what he's doing until the 13Fs do come out? 100%. Absolutely. There's definitely a large
chance, and most likely that we won't know. Because the only time the SEC filings would
come out if he's coming over a certain percent, I don't recall what Because the only time the SEC filings would come out, if he's,
you know, coming over a certain percent, I don't recall what the percent is off top of my head,
but, you know, you've got 5%. It's either 5 or 10%. I think 5 is filing 10, you have to do extra.
I think you're exactly right. So, you know, unless he's coming in over 5%, we're not going to know.
So that is 100% right. So again, then, but that means then we're
waiting to the end of the quarter with an average 45 day lag, you know, not the end of the world.
Again, these are positions he's holding for a long period of time. I like that, you know,
they are concentrated as you, as you mentioned, because he's, he gets into companies and he tries
to make them better. I mean, that's, he's an activist investor. That's, that's his thing.
So, you know So I don't think
there's going to be wholesale changes in the portfolio quarter to quarter, which I think is
important. Yeah. This wouldn't work with a Michael Burry, the way he is 13S come out.
My goodness, when you were doing the backtest, Adam, I don't know if we have this, do you know
around what his average hold time is for these positions? You know, I don't know.
Off top of my head, I don't know the answer to that.
I do have that data, and I can definitely follow up for sure with that.
My read is looking at the past couple of them, three to five years.
Maybe there's one or two of those ones where he gets out quickly,
which weighs it down.
My guess would be three to five years.
Yeah, I mean, it's definitely in that range for sure,
on average for sure. And there are some, that's, it's definitely in that range for sure. You know,
on average for sure. And, you know, there are some positions that he kind of takes down over time and,
you know, but yes, he has a long holding period because he's an activist investor. He's getting
in, he's trying to make changes and, and make money in the longterm.
Sam, I interrupted you there. Sorry. Oh, you're all good, Evan. that was great input um Sam did you have anything else on that
well I mean I did want to uh ask a question about AIS I mean let's do it that's where I was headed
next either way that new all-time highs today, Adam. This product's actually killing it. So there's AAS, but there's also Wild.
And I'm just astounded at that kind of performance.
Like the adjustments you made, you know, handed, I think one of them.
Okay, why don't you tell the audience which position that you guys rebalanced out to on Wild.
And I'll provide my commentary for that.
Oh, sure, Wild. Yeah, So we rebalanced a few weeks ago. So Wild, as your listeners might know,
it's a 2X levered product that instead of having to buy a single stock levered ETF,
this is an institutional approach where we find the five hottest stocks based on investor inflows.
So we went into AMD, Netflix, Meta, Tesla, and IonQ in this last portfolio
update. And so every month we're changing based on where the inflows are going. So if investors
are piling into certain names, we're going to pick that up and we're going to change the portfolio
to give our investors the access to not just one, but five of the hottest stocks, which gives them
a little bit of a diversification.
And performance, as you mentioned, has been lights out for this.
I mean, lights out.
You know, we just got to get more investors to know about it, because once they know about it, they're going to love it.
For sure.
I mean, the IONQ move is actually pretty good.
I mean, there's a lot of quantum that's being discussed today.
You know, it's actually interesting because because QuantumScape was actually up on some positive
news and like that's not even a quantum company.
I feel like when people saw the headline, they were like, oh my God, let me buy IONQ,
you know, let me bid that thing up.
But there's certainly a lot of excitement when it comes to that.
But Tesla, for example, like that's a phenomenal move.
The company is pretty much trading.
It's not at a 52-week high, but it's
basically at the most recent highs that it's been. And you're seeing the interest rates just calm
down. You saw the inflation report today. It wasn't as bad as the market expected. The market
shot up. There is a 100% chance, or pretty much near 100% chance, that the Fed is going to cut
at least 25 basis points this year, which does provide a lot of
clarity and a lot of positivity in terms of sentiment when it comes to buying EVs in general.
But also on top of that, Tesla is able to start driving or testing out their autonomous vehicles
on the roads, which is very interesting to see. You're seeing a lot of development when it comes
to autonomy. You're seeing even that happen, not just with tesla but also with uber with avrite which is the net which is part of nevis group
and you know it is a crazy time to live in um when is the next rebalance for wild the next
rebalance is on the 28th oh hold on i'll tell you exactly. Friday is a 26th. So that Monday, the 29th.
The 29th is the next rebalance of September.
Okay, so we still got a little bit of time to ride that one out.
It's going to be after the Fed cuts rates next week.
So that's going to be really interesting to say.
So now switching back to Aki, I wanted to ask a question because I know you're giving
exposure to people.
And I know that Bill Ackman did convert a lot of his shares for Nike
the other quarter into call options. Is that something you guys express in your ETF as well,
or do you have another derivative that you get that in the form of?
No, we're just capturing, by design, we're capturing the actual equity positions.
It's clean and you can track it and you don't have to think about, is he hedging those positions
with other options or other types of derivatives? So we're just picking up his long equity positions.
Great, great. And one last question, man. I mean, congratulations on the launch. I think it was a
very phenomenal launch. I've never seen any product like it that can offer anything of a mirror image on top of
that, providing income for following the Pershing Square.
I mean, the guy's been an amazing investor.
I think that there's been a lot of scrutiny in terms of legendary investors when they
come, including yourself, to be honest, nowadays, because like, okay, hey, look, open doors
up by 80% in one day.
It's like Bill Ackman, 20% every single year.
That's nothing, right?
Like people are getting very, they're getting very desensitized to how much risk you have
to put in the market in order to develop those returns.
But they're forgetting that a balanced portfolio, you know, is something that can provide meaningful
returns over a long period of time versus just in a week and like calls an open door
or something.
But being that's the case, do you think that, let's say, for example, we have
like a bear market or something, right? Which would literally just happen last April in case
people forgot. Because I feel like people do forget that a bear market literally just happened
last April. Do you think that there's going to be a lot of ETF outflows at that come? And if that
does happen, how do you think that you can circumvent that? Well, I mean, I think, you know,
when that happens,
investors sometimes go off their playbook and they do start selling in the panic.
So I think that's inevitable to happen if the market, you know, takes a dip down. But, you know,
we think that, look, with the 15% income annually, I think, you know, I think that's how we circumvent
it, right? You know, this is not just a capital appreciation play, it's an income play. So,
you know, if everything is getting clobbered price-wise, you know, you're still getting your
15% annually paid monthly. So that's why we think these income products are really important,
particularly in today's volatile markets. You know, you still want long-only equities,
you want growthy stocks, you want to do all that good stuff, but, you know, have some income in
your portfolio to kind of, as ballast for your portfolio, to
dampen that volatility and provide you some certainty over time. Yeah, for sure. I mean,
I've said this on many spaces, like this is not an easy job. Like I am definitely no legendary
investor. I'm definitely not, I don't have a flourish background like yourself or even the
other ETF managers or even the ex-president of tesla that sits as uh one of the founders of the vista shares which congratulations by the way
um i don't know maybe he maybe he told you that buying tesla is a good idea i mean i thought it
might have been a good idea before and a lot of people certainly didn't so it's really cool to
see you guys catch the upside on adding wild onto i'm sorry adding tesla to the wild etf but not
only that but it was also leveraged two times.
I just thought that was such an amazing move to make.
Because at the time, I remember seeing at the time, I was just like,
uh-oh, I wonder how that's going to take a while.
And then boom, you see Tesla basically make new recent highs,
which is really good to see.
But anyways, congratulations, Adam, on the launch.
Looks like it was very successful.
And I wish you guys great success, though.
I appreciate it.
And look, with Wild, you've been an advocate of it,
you know, look, investor sentiment works, right? Narrative driven stocks, you know,
they drive the market these days, right? So if you can capture, if you can identify and analyze
where investors are putting their money, investors are smart. The wisdom of the crowds,
the animal spirits of the crowds, that is what
Wild captures. So, you know, we're the only product like it and it's all data driven. Again,
it's not just crazy active managers jumping in and out and saying, hey, let's buy this stock
or that stock. It's all based on the inflows. If we see investors piling money into Tesla,
that's going to come up in our analysis and it'll be added to wild. So, and that's, that's, that's the genesis of it.
And, you know, look, the performance bears out, right?
I mean, well, we're up two and a half percent today since we launched.
We're up 20, almost 25% since June.
Not bad.
Not bad at all.
And what's also not bad is, is the AIS.
I know we're running short on time here, Adam, but I'd be remiss if I didn't
jump in and let you talk about that one a little bit as well. AIS, we talked about picks and
shovels and AI and that trade and that baskets you guys have. What is so successful about this
AIS? I'm looking at it now, I'm up over 90% off the April lows and a new all-time high today,
just breaking out and flying. Yeah. I mean, look, AI, all the ETFs out there that are, they call themselves AI funds are
really not AI funds. They're consumer-focused software funds. You've got Microsoft,
you've got Netflix and Tencent and all these companies in these, quote, AI funds. We are
the picks and shovels. We are the only AI infrastructure ETF. So when
you hear news about hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into AI, where is that going?
It's going into companies that build data centers and semiconductors. So we've analyzed the supply
chain. We've laid over the bill of materials to see where those dollars are being deployed. So
for data centers, for instance, believe it or not, 30% of your AI data center is empowering cooling systems. Boring companies, a company like Vertiv,
those are the companies that are soaking up these dollars and making 50 to 55% margins. So
that is what AIS is. And you know what? It's really paid off. The strategy is paying off
and investors are finally understanding it.
We just had 10 creation units today. I mean, it went from 17 million in assets over 50 over the last two to three months.
Performance over the last six months is about 48 percent. It's not bad.
But look, performance is performance. It's really about more of the exposure.
If you want AI exposure, you want the infrastructure. You don't want the front-end consumer software companies because
those are the ones that are putting the money into the infrastructure. Down the road,
they'll be able to make money on AI, but right now it's the infrastructure companies that are
soaking up that cash. We do have some live Microsoft news. They've agreed to terms with
OpenAI and they're up almost 3% here in After Hours.
Two things that Adam has said are major themes of this space that we run each and every day.
We've talked about, and you hear Stock Talk talk about this all the time,
retail-driven popular names that are moving, that have momentum and stuff behind them.
What's the story that's moving a stock? We hear that as a common theme on these
spaces all the time. We also hear as a common theme, the picks and shovels of AI. And so that
AIS is just an incredible basket of stuff. And you've heard a lot of our speakers on here deep
dive into basically these holdings that VistaShare has in the AIS, the Vertives, the GE Vernovas,
the energy that it's going to take to do AI
doesn't sound super exciting,
but it is where that exposure basket is.
So I love that.
Sam, your hand went up there.
I wanted to give you a chance.
Yeah, I mean,
what a, okay, question for you, Adam.
And you're going to already know,
you're going to already know the answer for this.
And this is more for the you, Adam, and you're going to already know the answer to this.
And this is more for the audience.
But, okay, so there's two top holdings in AIS.
And you're going to know what it is right off the bat.
But they specialize in developing high bandwidth memory that is near 30% to 50% of all the bill of materials for building out a GPU.
And one of these companies is up, well, 10 today i think it closed about seven eight percent up
and just try to guess which company i'm thinking of well i don't know the answer because i didn't
check the actual holdings performance so
i'm embarrassed you know better than I do. It's all good.
It's all good.
Micron is up over 7% today because it got a massive upgrade from Guggenheim from $150
to $175.
A lot of upside.
So this was actually really interesting because not only did you catch this with Oracle,
Oracle being up 40% yesterday, $200 billion move, but also one of the most important things about building these chips is having a high bandwidth memory stack.
So that way the GPU doesn't have to go all the way to the CPU in order to get that memory.
But what's really important is that as you're seeing a lot of this data center build out happening at a very fast scale,
which you guys clearly do know, which is the reason why you're finishing Ford in AIS,
you're going to get a lot of upside there. Because I think a lot of sets of it last April
was especially that, hey, look,
the entire AI cycle is coming to an end.
The spending is slowing down.
The semiconductors are slowing down in growth.
AWS is slowing down in growth and so on.
But then Oracle comes out with their earnings yesterday.
And on the back of it, people didn't realize,
like, look, of course, Oracle's going to be a beneficiary with that 359 growth in rpo but who are the players that are going to provide the
components and the products for it there's a sterile labs which is basically to provide a
lot of components but then most of it is going to be high bandwidth memory and one of the customers
that's providing a lot of that a lot of that supplies to these fabricators is Micron.
And I think the market's starting to realize,
like, Micron is not as quickly cyclical as it's been in the past.
It's actually going to be a much longer cycle.
And I think it's actually heading toward its all-time highs here,
which is really nice to see.
So congratulations, man.
That thing is up to date a lot.
Yeah.
Well, let me give a shout-out.
I know we're out of time, so you want to get rid of me.
But I do want to give a shout out to the investment committee, because honestly, you know, this AIS was designed by John McNeil, former president of Tesla.
He's on the board of General Motors. He's vice chairman of their autonomous vehicle division.
He was chief officer of Lyft. He's the co-founder of VistaShares.
His brainchild was this bill of material supply chain focus for AI.
So that's his brainchild.
And, you know, another member of our investment committee is Sonny Madra, who is the president of Grok, G-R-O-Q, one of the top providers of inference chips.
You know, he was actually just in that meeting over at the White House.
You know, he was actually sitting at the table there.
So, you know, he's on our investment kitty.
These guys know the space.
They know which companies are doing well.
And so it gives us a really big advantage to have people like that actually sitting over this portfolio and directing it.
I love those pieces. the brain, the brain power you guys have behind the, putting these baskets together and then the experience and brain power you
have, but the time the, the management and the active management of these,
it just, boy, that what a,
what a team you guys have put together over there at Vista shares.
And we are running towards the top of the end.
We don't have a hard cutoff, but I do want to be respectful,
of course, of everyone's time, Adam.
Congratulations on the successful launch of Aki, all these great products you guys have.
I mean, it must be nice when I look at Micron that you guys have the holding up 7% today.
Two of the wild holdings out of the five were up 6% and 7% today because IonQ was also up 7% today.
You guys are crushing it on the stock picks and the portfolio holdings here.
Well, I appreciate it. It's all through good construction. It's all systematic type processes.
You take the emotion out, do the analysis and do the research. And that's what we try to bring,
more of an institutional approach with everything we do. We're not going to bring out
a lot of products. We're going to bring out the right products and that we think are, and that we can be proud of. Yeah, I love that. I definitely
would encourage everyone to go to VistaShares.com. You can see all the holdings, all these different
ETFs that are offered, some great ones. A couple that we didn't even really spend much time on
today because we focused on obviously Aki, AIS. We talked to some about the OMAH. There's some
other great ones in there as well. Adam, any final talked to some about the OMAH. There's some other great ones in
there as well. Adam, any final things to leave with the audience today? We sure appreciate your
time coming on here with us. Yeah, no, I just appreciate you guys. I appreciate your audience.
Look, I mean, we had a great launch because of you and your audience. I mean, we spent a lot of time
trying to educate the retail investor through X. And frankly, we've had an incredible,
the retail investor through X.
And frankly, we've had an incredible,
you know, just an incredible experience
developing relationships
with a lot of investors on X.
And, you know, that's why we've been successful.
So I just thank you very much for that.
And, you know, please give me a follow,
you know, on X.
I try to send out materials daily
or information.
And of course, Vista Shares X
is the corporate account where we put stuff out
as well. We try to provide good educational materials. Perfect. Yeah. Make sure you follow
Adam, that VistaShares accounts up here adds a speaker as well. I did pin a tweet up top from
them. So easy to get to both of those accounts and give them a follow. Adam, appreciate your
time. We love the success that you guys are having because it indirectly gives us as retail traders, which we're all about, obviously,
here on these spaces, the retail trader gives us the tools to be able to invest like Ackman,
for example, and to have access to great minds in the space and then also a great team that's
managing all these different products for us. So we really appreciate VistaShares, appreciate you,
Adam. And definitely check out
ACKY, A-C-K-Y, Invest Like, Bill Ackman, Pershing Square, new ETF that just launched with great
success. And we want to thank everyone else, all the speakers that have been up here on this
space, on this portion of the space and the entire space. Make sure you give all of them a follow.
Of course, you guys know Stock Talk up here, co-hosting, holding it down with me. And then
this host account right here, Stocks on Spaces.
We go live every single day.
We're off tomorrow for Friday, of course, Monday through Thursday on this show.
So we'll be back on Monday.
Hope everyone has a great weekend.
And we will see you guys next week on Monday and see what the Fed brings us next week.
It should be very interesting as we get close to FOMC.
And with that, I'm going to sign off.
Of course, this is recorded as always.
If you missed any part of the conversation today
from the first hour where a lot of people
threw in some great information,
Stock Talk doing a deep dive there in the second hour.
And of course, this great chat with Adam, Patty,
and the Vista Shares crew.
Thanks everyone and take care.
We will see you guys next week. Thank you.
