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INVEST LIKE DRUCKENMILLER | $DRKY DEEP DIVE
Recorded: Oct. 1, 2025 Duration: 2:46:24Space Recording
Short Summary
In a lively discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the latest trends in the market, highlighting Amazon's stock recovery, the upcoming launch of ASTS, and the resilience of major indices hitting all-time highs. The conversation also touched on the implications of government shutdowns, inflation expectations, and the potential for significant capital inflows into reshoring industries, showcasing a bullish sentiment among investors.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Yo, yo.
Every day at the start of these spaces,
when I accept this co-host, it rugs me.
I think I'm about to get rugged again.
So once I take this co-host Mike
tell me how your day is going
but let's try this
let's see if I get rugged and I'm just going to keep talking
let's go Evan
let's see
Amazon's up a little bit
the whole market's looking pretty good now
my BMNR was one of the few names that was green
in the pre-market
my BMNR and Apple and everything else was kind names that was green in the pre-market my bmnr and apple
and everything else was kind of red it was a beautiful pre-market for me but it's turned
into a nice day qqq vo spy whatever it is hitting intraday all-time highs dow jones falling a little
bit behind behind iwm down a little bit but overall pretty solid day for day for the market. The market not caring about this
government shutdown. I feel like this government shutdown, at least from the stock market
perspective, is a lot more of headlines than it is actual substance. One thing that I do think
is really weird and strange, and we talked about it a little bit earlier in the week,
is that the fact that we're getting no jobs, at rate we're getting no jobs print on Friday no NFP data
which is the one I think the market is
which we know the market is really focused on
we can take away from that what we will
interesting at times going on in this market
it's not showing me anyone else as a speaker
except for you Mike
I see that Wolf's a speaker,
and Logical, and Brian
are speakers as well.
Nice.
So I see a bunch of other people
are speakers.
We'll kick it into
your gear first. Give me one or two names
that are on your radar.
And then I'll give you more time to
circle in on some more stuff.
But why don't you give me that one.
I actually need a second.
One second.
All right.
No worries.
No worries.
I want to start with you, Brian.
Let's go that way then.
How are we doing, sir?
So we're doing really good.
You know, one of the things that I think is important
or should be important to people when they
list in these spaces is accountability.
And I know that most people that are on here and talk about the trades they make or that
they did or how much money they're making have posted their trades, talked about their
trades.
It's important because there's a lot of people that kind of play in the shady realm of saying
they were in something and they really weren't.
But I talked about this stock a couple weeks ago. You can go look at my Twitter timeline. And I'm talking about ASTS. I was
talking about it when it was at 42. The reason I was talking about it is because it broke down
pretty aggressively at the beginning of September. And then it started to form a little bear flag,
basically from September 8th to September 12th. And then it did the unexpected. It gapped up out
of that flag. So basically, it negated that flag. What you would think would happen is that flag
would continue and the price would go in the trend of the break. And it didn't. And that was
the first point where I said, you know what? Something's changed here. Watch this stock. If it can get above
42, it can really rip. And today we're sitting at 56. It seems like magic, but it's not, right?
It's just a lot of years of experience. And it's more so a lesson that when a stock doesn't do
something you think it should do, that is signal.
So for example, one of my favorite setups is a stock that gaps down at the open, sometimes
on earnings, and then just reverses that whole gap down and ends up green.
I'll give you an example of that.
Look at Amazon today, okay?
Amazon gapped down at the open.
It went lower and it basically created a double bottom, a short term double bottom with that
low on the 25th of September.
And then it's pushed all the way back up to almost yesterday's high.
I like that.
That's telling me that there are levels where there are buyers.
It's telling me what you think should have happened, didn't happen.
And oftentimes the opposite't happen. And oftentimes
the opposite will happen. So AST is great. QS is another one that I'm in with options. It's working
out great today. It's a really good day. And it's odd because a lot of names are moving, but they're
moving more than the market as a whole is. So I've seen lots of smaller names move,
which I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing,
but overall it's been a great day.
Yeah, what's the move that, what catalyzed this ASTS move?
I didn't look too deep into it.
Up 15%, there you go.
Didn't they have news this morning?
They had a successful Tesla.
So last night after hours, they announced their launch schedule, basically.
And that's what everyone –
Room 3 is ready to fly.
It looks like head to India on October 12th.
Right.
So it's actually going to Cape Canaveral on October 12th, I believe.
And then it's launching something for India. And then they also put out
their whole schedule of like the next 40 launches. I'm not a fundamental trader. I was looking at this
just from a technical standpoint, although I knew the rumblings of the story. But apparently this
for ASTS bulls was kind of the catalyst. They knew that this launch schedule was coming, but they
needed it to be verified before they would get
in. So I think that's what the catalyst was. The other catalyst earlier this week was
they got a big chunk of broadband, I think it's called Legado, something Legado that was in
bankruptcy that the judge finally signed off and they got. So there've been some positive catalysts,
but the thing is you could see that those positive catalysts were coming in the price action. That's why technicals are so important. I believe that there are people
that are way smarter, way more in the know about stocks than you, me, anyone that's on this call.
And they will start putting their money to work way before we will get any of that information.
So that's why I'm always looking for those little technical clues. And you'd be surprised at how many times you see great technical action followed up a day to maybe a week later by some fundamental announcement that then even makes the stock go higher.
target increase for ASTS this morning, 60 to 37. Overweight. We got an analyst whisperer on the
spaces. He actually is a big fan. Analyst tattooed on the inside of his eyelids. Did you see this
note, Stock Talk? What did they say about ASTS? I see all the notes. I didn't read the full note.
I see everything. I didn't see it. I didn't really see it. I do see everything on the analyst side.
There you go. Yeah, I did see the note.
Yeah, they're raising their medium-term outlook.
I didn't read the whole thing, but I read their synopsis.
They're raising their medium-term outlook.
They think that the T-Mobile Starlink launch that was basically only supporting a text-only service,
they think that's bullish for ASTS because ASTS is purporting to offer, obviously, more than a text-only service they think that's bullish for ASTS because ASTS is
purporting to offer obviously more than a text-only service and so they put a
pretty bullish upside case on it on that note as well they put $120 per share
upside case so their base case price target is 60 but in the note they
indicated $120 upside case so yeah pretty aggressive note from Barclays this morning on them.
And they also think that there's going to be a reduction of their cost of capital
because they expect the company to be delivering most of their infrastructure
in the next two years, and they're expecting rates to come down as well.
So that was a little side note they made.
But yes, I did see the note.
Fair enough. That is quite the big move on ASCS. I didn't have it on my watch list,
but now that I added it, it is the best performing name on this one. First would have been Eli Lilly.
We also got a Novo Nordisk close to the top. I see an LA.
Too bad you're going to add D- pro to that list because it would have been uh i'm not gonna
add i'm not gonna add that small cap but i will say leu number four and i will uh i'll give you
the credence it's been going up reddit one of the ones losing peloton also buy any robin hood no i
don't own wait what leu yeah yeah i did actually i bought Add QS. That's up 17% today.
QuantumScape.
Did you see the reason why Reddit's down?
Yeah, there were some.
I didn't even see too many mainstream.
It was social media
posting.
So what it was is they're using a website though.
That chatTBT is taking away their stuff.
They're using a website called SimilarWeb,
which is actually data that people go
in and use i didn't go and double check it myself but that is so what they were saying is that
chat tbt has been using or citing using reddit less marketably less over the last that's correct
yep that's that's what the story was so we'll see the stock obviously reacted quite negatively to
this that morning the post that
everyone was quoting from was from september 30th but it is what he was quoting from was this website
called similar web which does has it does have respectable data so i don't think the stock would
be down 11 on that we'll see we'll see what other sources say but reddit's down a good little chunk on that one for sure um i don't know i i didn't for me
it's still kind of a black box these things are evolving and changing so quickly who knows if it's
a problem or if it's you know just a moment in time from like a month ago or if it's just
a mistake from the the website's end I don't know but
stocks are moving on stuff that simply right now why don't you want to why
don't you want QS on your your watch list I still think of it as a meme stock
you could tell me why it's not don't they not do anything with quantum yeah I
have no idea what the company does I just know from a technical standpoint
she was his batteries they make ev batteries that are supposedly better than tesla the bulbo has been a big investor in buying them
there you go cool these solid state batteries which are not currently viable but yes they
are purporting that they will be viable actually i've got an old note on my chart that says the
company's headquartered in san jose investors include bill gates and volkswagen solid state lithium metal batteries for electric cars so i guess the former it's a
former spec there you go a lot of former specs have really hot looking charts right now partially
because there's a natural volume shelf on dspacs that emerges when when a D SPAC D SPACs. So I'm trying to explain this in a simple
way for people that don't know the context of these, but like when a SPAC is a SPAC before it
has merged, there is a price for in theory. Now the stock can trade below that price for referred
to as net asset value. It can trade below below it but you're guaranteed to be able to
redeem the stock for the net asset value prior to the redemption date that's how spacks work that's
the funding of the spec right that's the initial capital that's the pipe right well the pipe is
what creates so the money that's invested into the spec is what creates the funds for redemption. So there's a bet, like a SPAC is just a holding company with a ton of
cash who has gone to the exchange and said, Hey, we have raised a ton of cash for the purpose of
acquisition. And the exchange will allow them a period, 30, 90, 120 days, whatever changes from spec to spec, to then acquire a target, to find a target.
Because the NASDAQ is like, hey, you can't be listed as a holding company with a bunch of cash.
We don't list holding companies with a bunch of cash.
You need to find a company.
And so the SPAC team then goes and looks for a company.
They then come up with a valuation for the company, okay, based on the input of proceeds
from the investors of the SPAC.
They're going to invest X amount of capital, they're going to get X percentage of the company,
and that's going to impute X valuation for the company.
Then the company uses that SPAC vehicle to go public.
And whatever percentage of the company the SPAC acquired, that's the percentage of the
float of the company that goes public.
It's often why SPACs are relatively low float. And so anyway, when the SPAC merges with the company,
okay, and goes public officially, the ticker changes, there's no more price floor.
That $10 floor, roughly $10 on most SPACs, no longer exists. Not only could price go below that floor,
but there is no option for redemption anymore. So a lot of low risk SPAC traders sell before
merger because they don't even want to risk the opportunity to go below 10. Many of them buy at
NAV and then sell every pop. You could do it in size. I i know spac traders who do this with eight figure
accounts they'll buy five million dollars of a spac at nav and then sell it for a five percent pop
right you make decent money doing that if you do it consistently if you know about but there's a
lot of spacks on the market right so there's traders that do this for a living they're
arbitrage traders spac arbitrage traders buy atAC arbitrage traders. Buy at NAV, sell above NAV,
rinse and repeat until the stock goes public.
There's like whole, there's actually funds that do just that.
So anyway, when it goes public,
what happens is because that $10 floor drops out,
there is, what generally happens to SPACs
over the course of years is on their recovery
as they approach that $10 floor, which is now a ceiling, right?
You're assuming the SPAC went down after merger, which most do.
90% of them tank after merger because most of them are bad companies.
And over the years, the ones that do recover end up revisiting that $10 floor.
And what you see is you see a ton of residual
volume there, right? Because you have bag holders there from the SPAC era, right? This is just all
common sense, one plus one, right? The bag holders who bought at NAV and got bag post-merger are then
sellers of that $10 floor. So generally, as SPACs emerge above $10, the charts look really good,
because they've emerged above this big $10 volume shelf that served as a ceiling for price for years
for many of these names, and are now above it. So a lot of these SPACs right now, considering the
market action in the last two years, look fantastic. The charts look fantastic. And Brian's
right on point about that, because many of them are either testing or emerging above that ten
dollar price floor which sets up for explosive action right because you look at the gaps on
some of these names a lot of these spacks went from 10 to 50 or 60 bucks prior to merger and
then tanked to two dollars that opens up explosive range for these names
as they reemerge above the $10 level.
That's why there's a lot of focus on these D-SPAC names.
Everything from ASTS, DraftKings, even Genius Sports,
which I've talked about, all these names are D-SPACs.
They're former SPACs.
Planet Labs, which has been a monster performer this year.
Redwire, which has been a monster performer
the last couple of years.
All of these are former SPACs. and people who didn't trade in 2020 or 2019 don't remember a
lot of these names i do just because i have i don't know a weird brain like that i remember all
the names but back then these names were the hottest things to trade in that market they were
the best place to have your money in that market if you're a trader if you're a trader they weren't
good holds but they were they were fantastic trades.
And so a lot of them are setting up to make fantastic trades again.
And maybe the market gets rug pulled here, but if it doesn't, and small caps keep acting the way they've been acting in the last couple of weeks.
Did you say rug pull?
Oh, come on.
That's crazy talk.
Come on.
That's crazy talk.
You never know, though.
You never know.
As you know, Mike, it can come at any time.
Yeah, I do. You know, I said this earlier, I think, you know, and you've been trading for a while, too, like me.
I mean, this kind of market reminds me.
Almost 14 years now for me. I'm a young guy, but almost 14 years.
I've been trading for about 20 something.
So I just feel like the only thing that's going to hurt this market, I think, is you're going to either get some black swan news that comes out of nowhere that nobody's looking for, right?
Something just catches all by off guard.
Or you finally get the chase in this market.
You know what I mean by the chase, where everybody that's sitting on the sidelines finally just can't get the dip and finally says, screw it.
And everybody just chases it.
And you get a blow off top short term.
Not trying to say a top in the market, but a short term, you know, just everybody piles into the market and you get just no money left to come in
and you finally get your pullback then or correction.
I'm what's your thoughts on that?
Yeah, I agree.
I think I think it comes when people aren't expecting it almost always like deep seek,
you know, was there were some signs technically.
Right.
I mean, if you wanted to nail that sell like i i again i consider
myself pretty experienced i'm pretty good at managing my positions i didn't see a sell signal
a lot of my individual stocks prior to that day right so i got i got my chops busted on deep seek
day you know you can see it on my performance chart you can see the drop off it was not a good
day for me you know and i had to cut a lot of stuff but i mean if you could survive days like
that in the market where you catch these brutal knives, you know, everything in your portfolio
is down nine or 10% like it was for me on not everything was down, but almost everything was
down for me on that day, that deep seek day. So you're gonna have moments like that. And I think,
you know, I mentioned this in discord earlier today, but it's sort of the cross the bridge
when you come to it mentality. I know that sounds so rudimentary and silly and almost stupid but i think that's good advice for most parts of your
life and especially for markets like you could always be waiting in the bay thinking like man
this market looks i mean this market looked toppy last year didn't it this market looked euphoric
last year yeah i mean you know i mean i don't think anybody saw this move off the April lows like it's been.
Absurdly, stupidly strong. I agree. I didn't see it. I mean, I didn't buy anything in April.
I've done well this year, but I didn't buy anything in April. I bought deep into April, but then I started
following my rules and I was selling on the way up, right? Because that's what you do, right?
Okay, we're up 20% back up,
time to start taking some profits here on some of this stuff.
We're back at the highs.
And at this point I've stopped selling
for the last month and a half because I'm like,
I don't wanna buy here,
but I certainly don't wanna be less exposed
than I currently am, which is way too less exposed.
Yep, and I think a lot of institutional managers
are probably feeling exactly how you feel where,
but the difference between them and the liberty that we have managing our own accounts is that they might have to chase.
Right, because they need the money for their performance.
Exactly.
They can't be comfortable just saying, oh, I don't want to be a seller here.
If they need to pick up net exposure, they have to pick up net exposure.
This is precisely what happened in the back half of last year right
remember a lot of people after the front half of last year were like okay markets need to cool off
the back half needs to cool off and the back half there were so many stocks that just exploded you
know even in even during markets period of more periods of market consolidation so yeah there yeah
there i think there remains a lot of opportunity yeah i i scrolled through my portfolio today i was like okay bam you know new all-time highs today for the portfolio i scrolled
through i'm like is there anything i should be selling and i flipped the answer no and i'm like
none of these charts are telling me to sell anything so like if anything some of these
names are saying i should be getting longer yeah exactly what about pen are you still in pen
yeah i still have that position
I deployed out of it
I was like, I'm up a tiny bit
I am worried a little bit about the sports betting thing
And, you know, that narrative is starting
Can I rant about sports?
Yeah, go for it
I hate my Yankees
Can we please fire Boone? Can we please fire Boone?
You have your ace in, who's pitching lights out
And you pull him because he hit 100 pitches in the top of the seventh inning.
All right, you guys suck.
Going to a bullpen that is worthless.
Are you freaking kidding me?
Are you freaking kidding me?
On a game you had to win.
Okay, rant over.
But I'm just so pissed off last night.
I watched that whole game, and I just want to – I almost broke my TV.
Yeah, the sports are frustrating.
I feel the same way about the Cowboys, although not lately.
We have played a hell of a game.
Hey, you taught with a tie.
A tie is a tie.
A tie is a tie.
A tie is a tie.
You know, it's not a loss.
So, you know, you can call it that.
But, yeah, on the sports betting thing, to the point,
the conversation we had yesterday,
there was actually a great note out this morning on that topic exactly, Evan, that we were talking about yesterday.
It was a double downgrade from Northland.
Now, some people don't like Northland's research.
I happen to like it.
But some people are critical of Northland.
But they put out a good note this morning, I thought.
They double downgraded the stock.
So they had DraftKings rated at an outperform.
In fact, Northland was an opinion leader on draft kings in the very early days they were like one of the most bullish on the street constantly raising their price target but anyway
they double downgrade the stock today for people that don't know analyst language double downgrade
means you reduce it by two ratings so like generally downgrade is okay we're downgrading
from outperformed to neutral but these guys downgraded from outperformed to underperformed. So they skipped the neutral. And this is what they said in short. They said, we're downgrading to underperform, reflecting the increasing headwind that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket represent.
regulatory pushback we believe the growth and popularity and increased adoption of prediction
markets which are available to everyone older than 18 nationwide can disrupt traditional sportsbooks
we found prediction markets generally offered more favorable odds this was the part that
made me scratch my chin and actually start to really think about it. They said, we found prediction markets
to be generally more favorable odds
when looking at 40 NFL and college football games,
which may challenge handle and user growth
as these platforms mature.
If that is true and demonstrably true,
that the odds are significantly better
as Northland is alleging in this note this morning,
and if that can be verified by other analysts on Wall Street, that's bad.
That is really bad.
You know one thing I've never liked about DraftKings' business model is their cost of
acquisition remains incredibly high, like a couple hundred dollars per person.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, I've talked about that.
I never invested in
draftkings right you know it's like that's just a bad combination if you said was true along with
that that is a horrible combination yeah it's brutal i mean put put aside all the money these
guys spent on on regulation right and trying to get stuff approved and lobbying that's one thing
but all the money these guys spend on trying to keep customers, right? Like there's nothing sticky about a sports book. Somebody's offering you the same odds. Like,
what do you care where you're clicking the buttons? Like maybe some people care about the colors
or like if there's clear images of the players on the pictures, but like,
does that really matter net, net to a better? No. And that's the issue with this industry.
It's, it's, it's also the reason why in Vegas,
the casinos sort of softly agreed in the very early days of Vegas. I read a lot about the early construction of Vegas. I draw a lot of analogies to it. But in the early construction of Vegas,
there was initially this idea from casinos like, oh, we don't want to be close to each other
because I don't want the guy across the street taking business from you. But over time, there was a corroborative understanding between the casino owners that there was very
little differentiation and that they were likely going to run the same table odds anyway.
And so that the differentiation would be in the buildings and the brands themselves. They didn't
care about if they were across the street from each other. And that's how you ended up with all
these hotels in Las Vegas, right across the street from each other. And that's how you ended up with all these hotels in Las Vegas right across the street from each other. Take that analogy to sports betting.
These guys haven't figured that out yet, right?
If you look at the initial early stages
of the sports betting market expansion in the United States,
online sports betting in the United States, right,
which is a relatively new industry,
like maybe eight years old effectively at scale.
If you look at the expansion of that industry,
what happened was there
was initially a war for regional markets in fact there's still publicly traded stock that's
reflective of this stock called rsi i believe it's still yeah russia and interactive still
publicly traded another former spac by the way speaking of former specs earlier but another
former spac russia interactive was a big regional book in the new jersey area okay and they captured
a ton of market share in fact it's it's $2 billion stock right now.
But when DraftKings and FanDuel were trying to expand in U.S. markets,
their first strategy was let's buy the regional books.
That was their first approach.
And they did.
They bought many of them.
Both Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings bought many of these local regional books.
Rust Street fended off acquisition because they had a very, very, very loyal customer base in most of the regional markets. So they fended
off acquisition, but many of the smaller books didn't. Now, the issue with that is this. The
issue with that is that they thought consolidation of the regional markets would solve the customer
acquisition problem, but it didn't because the books are becoming nationally competitive more
and more rapidly, right? The more states that approve sports betting, the more nationally available the books become.
That's logic 101, right?
So as legalization has increased in the last eight years, the national footprint of the
books has also increased.
And that has actually dampened the importance of regional markets.
So they started off wasting money inened the importance of regional markets. So they started
off wasting money in a place thinking that regional markets were going to be important
because the impression was, oh, not everywhere is going to be legalized. We have to hunt the
regional markets. And now they're like, oh, it's a national race. And they're backtracking on that.
And now all the ad spend is done digitally. How? Through exactly what you mentioned, Mike.
Hey, get $200 in free
betting money if you sign up for drafting.
That's not sustainable.
It's just not sustainable.
Because a lot of people come in, do a
bet and leave, and then they never get their money back.
Exactly.
You know.
I agree.
Government shutdown special?
Two for one, get a free parlay or something.
Like even worse than that, sometimes people win.
And then they never, or they don't deposit for months, right?
A would-be depositor.
Then they're just betting on their money.
Exactly.
Then they're betting on house money.
That's the worst thing.
Imagine running that promo on a bad weekend for Vegas.
Oh, God.
Now you have 10,000 house money bettors on the platform, right? You don't want to do that as a book.
And so the issue becomes is that as you get bigger, the importance of each individual customer dampens.
But your lack of focus on the individual customer actually increases the churn
of the product. So it's counterproductive because the less customer focused these apps become,
and they've become so removed from the customer, the less customer focused these apps become,
the more promos they're doing, you're now spending for an unsticky customer.
You're spending a huge, like the
customer acquisition costs are enormous relative to the actual revenue per customer. And now your,
your customer is a less sticky as a product, a product of you doing that. It's like a crazy
for like, I just, the business is a maddening business. If I was in the sports betting business,
I'd be like pulling my hair out. And it's part of the reason why I haven't made any core positions in that business. Like everything I've ever done in that industry
has been a trade. You know, I guess genius is the only exception that it's more of a data play and
not a betting play. But on the betting names, I've just never been able to develop conviction for
that reason. And now this call it caution employee market thing is a whole separate problem for them.
Forget the rant I just gave about customer acquisition and regional markets. That was already a problem that they're facing. And that's why
they're having such trouble accelerating margins. You know how hard it is to accelerate margins
when you're paying people $200 to use your platform? It's really fucking hard.
And so they're stuck in that rut already. And now you have CallShane Polymarket coming in
offering better odds. I mean, again, I haven't verified that, but I hesitate to imagine Northland would have put that in a note if they didn't deeply research and verify that information before saying that there's better odds on the prediction markets.
But if there are better odds on the prediction markets and they're available to everyone over 18 and they're available nationally, I mean, how do you compete with that?
I'm not a huge fan of northlands but on something like
this i think they're they're they're good but if you told me this northland on amd or apple or
tesla at large caps they're not good yeah right you know but on a name like this yeah they've
probably done more research than the rest of them because a lot of these analysts that are out there
especially with jp morton goldman they don't they just gloss over these other guys they do a little
cursory stuff and say okay okay, it looks good,
and move on, or it doesn't look good.
They don't dive into them.
So I agree with you.
I think you hit this really well.
There you go, Evan.
You wanted a sports betting rant, so I gave you one.
Well, yesterday I wanted one.
Today you just went into it.
I gave you one yesterday, too, but a different one.
Yesterday was the one I wanted.
Today was the one that I got.
Okay.
All right.
All right.
No, I'm kidding.
I'm messing with you.
This was a good one too.
This was a good day.
It's a good start to the spaces.
I'm enjoying it.
We're staying on topic.
I want to bring Allie into the convo a little bit as well.
Hi guys.
How are you doing Allie?
I'm good.
How are you?
I'm doing well.
We got, we got crazy times going on.
Last couple of weeks have been really crazy for me, but now I'm good. How are you doing? Good. Same thing. It's slowing down
a little bit, but I don't know. I mean, things just keep happening. I guess this is just
the cycle we're in. Anything top of mind you want to start into the convo? Obviously,
a lot of people are talking about this government shutdown, but I feel like a lot us a lot of the the fin twitter arena are kind of like you know it just
doesn't really seem to impact the market that much i find the weird thing to be that nfp coming out
on friday is may or may not happen maybe we were stock talk was joking about this uh yesterday the
government shutdown ones at 9 00 a.m eastern on Friday morning, right after the NFP print comes out.
No one will ask questions.
We'll see.
But yeah, what's going on in your world?
Yeah, I agree.
And historically, markets, the economy, they're not really affected by these shutdowns.
And the bigger risk would be if this lasts 30 days or longer, because that's when we can continue to have that lack of data visibility.
But I was talking to an economist today who said that everyone got paid, which is important to
remember given the dates that we're at. If we get to like October 12th through 16th and we're still
shut down, that's when things could get a little hairy in terms of these workers getting their paychecks. And then also that
clouds a lot of the data collection when we think about CPI in just around two weeks.
But it shouldn't really affect the data collection for next month's BLS report. So that's encouraging.
And usually these things get resolved in just a few days. There's always that risk that it goes
longer, but it doesn't feel like there's that much panic on Wall Street right now. And clearly,
you're not really seeing that reflected in markets. We just ended the third quarter
on a really high note. You're now seeing all three indexes in the green right now. We opened
in the red. We're able to climb back and we could yet again see another round of record highs. And
looking back on the
third quarter, I think it was interesting too to just see cyclically and by on a sector basis,
what was the outperformers? I mean, no surprise that we saw tech at the top. We also saw consumer
discretionary not far behind it. But consumer staples was the only sector to close in the red over that three-month period.
And that's your companies behind those essentials like toothpaste, paper towels,
and they were down more than 3%. And then even within the consumer staples sector,
companies like Coca-Cola, Costco, Colgate, they all moved lower over the past three months as
investors really doubled down on growth. And that's a big reversal from what we saw in April when the Liberation Day tariff
announcements led to a lot of panic and you saw investors fleeing a lot of those high
growth names and going for more of those defensive plays.
And I joined when you guys were talking about the surprise of how quickly we've rebounded
from that time and how much risk there is in the current market. And that is sort of the
top of mind for me, especially as there's been more talk of, are we in a bubble? Should we be
concerned? Are stocks fairly valued? After Jerome Powell was quoted saying that. And even just going
through my inbox today and talking to folks on Wall Street, there just doesn't seem to be that fear that we're even near
bubble territory. A lot of it has to do with earnings growth. We're not at these extremes.
The demand is there. And people can tangibly see it. I was speaking to someone this morning who
said, things that used to cost 200,000, positions that we used to pay people to do, you can now do with AI.
And it's just crazy that we're already incorporating all of this stuff now.
The productivity boons and the gains for that are just going to be astronomical.
And that really is the general consensus here that we haven't even scratched the surface
of what that could be.
Now, of course, there's the ripple of what that could be. Now, of course,
there's the ripple effect that that could have on jobs, potentially those entry-level positions.
And to that point, we do have younger workers, even college-educated workers struggling to find
a job. We have that low-hire, low-fire environment. That narrative hasn't really changed. A positive
there is the fact that we don't have layoffs. That's usually
indicating that we're nearing a recession. What was that job? We did get a jobs out of this
morning, ADP, right? There was something this morning that didn't look good.
Yeah, that private payrolls dropped by around 32,000. So that basically gives the Fed something
to chew on and sort of reaffirms their belief that the labor market is deteriorating. So people
have been talking about the AGP report and essentially saying that's going to keep the
Fed on track for a rate cut later this month, even if they are quote unquote flying blind without the
non-farm payroll report and the BLS and all that other data that we get due to the shutdown.
There are- forms of data.
Just to confirm, the Fed does meet if the government shut down, right?
It sounds like yes.
I haven't heard otherwise.
So, yes, they should meet even if they...
Can I step in?
Yeah.
The Fed is self-funded.
So, yes, they will meet.
They're not funded by the federal government.
They're independent. They're not funded by the federal government. They're independent.
They're funded by their own proceeds.
Why doesn't anyone do it for the love of the game? Why does it have to be just for money?
I'm kidding. I get it. You go ahead.
Yeah, so they're on track, it seems like, to continue cutting rates.
They're on track, it seems like, to continue cutting rates. And there have been more talk
from both Fed officials and economists that maybe the Fed doesn't need to cut interest rates at
this point, that there is that risk of inflation re-accelerating. And we have seen an uptick in
inflation in recent months. We have heard warnings that tariffs still need to fully make their way
through the system. There even is talk that maybe the Fed is targeting behind closed doors a 3% inflation target and that markets have sort of
accepted that level rather than 2%. That'll be interesting to see if they make any adjustments
to that considering how different the economic environment is right now, not just for the U.S., but globally, too.
You have the long end of the curve for Japan and a lot of other countries rising. And we do have
more inflation throughout the entire globe, not just the U.S. So that makes me wonder if the Fed
is going to recalibrate the inflation target that they currently have, which is 2%, or whether that could move up. And I know that's been something
that we've been discussing for a little bit now. But yeah, I mean, nothing, even though
big news with the shutdown, everything seems to be status quo for now. The winners keep on winning.
Obviously, earnings are very important. And I just don't see much derailing things right now,
although we could be due for maybe a healthy correction
before the end of the year
and maybe possibly a bit more of a noisy fourth quarter.
I'm curious.
I'm sure you're talking to different types of people, the financial people, but also maybe the more economists, the Powell, the Fed side.
I'm curious, so we were talking a little bit there about what the more Wall Street people are talking about.
But I'm curious what the other side and what the more economists, the more Powell, the other sides of it are talking about around the shutdown.
If they're also kind of brushing it off a little bit, there's other areas in focus on this?
Yeah, they basically are. And I just talked to an economist this morning, and he said the same
thing. I think it's 0.1% of GDP, the length of a shutdown, but typically these do get resolved
within a week or two. You don't really see
prolonged shutdowns. We've had around 20-something shutdowns since the 1970s, so it's not like this
never happens. It's really just the length of time. And of course, if Trump follows through
on that threat to permanently fire federal workers, not just furlough them. That adds another element of things
at a time when the labor market's already vulnerable and dealing with the repercussions
of DOGE, which we know that there are some federal employees that were still counted as
employed on the establishment survey due to the fact that they were receiving those benefits.
Now that that's over come October, we're going to see that reflected in the jobs numbers. And on top of
that, you have the immigration crackdown. So we have a supply versus demand situation that is
impacting the labor market in ways that we haven't seen before. And that's part of the reason why you continue to see the unemployment trade near these historically low levels.
So yeah, the economists that I talked to pretty much echo the same thing. There doesn't seem to
be that much panic, that much concern. But like I said, you do have certain economists like Torsten
Slok from Apollo saying, you know, the Fed does risk reigniting inflation by cutting
into an economy that so far looks pretty strong. Yes, you have that weakness in the labor market,
those cracks, but GDP has remained incredibly resilient. You still have consumer spending.
Stocks at record highs means those higher income earners keep spending and they're supporting the economy.
But more and more, we have this bifurcated consumer.
We have this K-shaped recovery.
And you're seeing that reflected in the stock market with, you know, staples and tech.
What is the point where we've reached maybe a breaking point there?
when is the point where we've reached maybe a breaking point there? And it might be when
companies start to finally pass on the tariff impacts to consumers. Right now, they've been
able to manage that pretty well. There's been a decent amount of carve-outs. That's helped keep
the effective tariff rate lower than what the theoretical rate says. So all that's well and good, but we still to this day are having new tariffs being announced
that 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals went into effect today. We have the TrumpRx
website that launched too. So there's just a lot of moving parts here that companies are
continuing to digest. You're seeing the sentiment data come in pretty downbeat still. So there's
this disconnect clearly between Wall Street and Main Street. Who's right remains to be seen. And
there's been past periods where, you know, sometimes Main Street's right and Wall Street's
the one that's getting it wrong. And if you look at longer term inflation expectations from the
University of Michigan survey, that's pointing to significantly higher inflation than markets are currently pricing in.
So does the rubber hit the road there or are we able to really avoid that?
That's going to be the big question through the end of the year and well into 2026 as well.
and well into 2026 as well.
I'm curious if anyone else has any thoughts
they want to add in on this conversation.
Sometimes I like to see how long I'll keep it open
until someone just grabs.
And honestly, normally they ask a great question too.
We get to that point.
Yeah.
No, but I definitely appreciate your thoughts on this one as always.
And you should definitely stick in for the rest of the conversation.
I was looking at some of the average data
and I pinned it up in the nest above.
Now, some of this is stock market centric,
but the time, how long these shutdowns go,
and actually you could see how often they happen as well.
But they were all very short, like one to two, three days for a long time.
Right now, the average is eight over the last like 20 of them.
But the last one was 34 days, which is really long, which I'm sure some people are living a little bit.
And I guess you can kind of see a trend of them getting a
little bit longer over the more recent ones. So we'll see. But yeah, that was under the,
you know, last Trump administration too. So that's something that people have pulled out as well.
But there's, there's also, there was two in that year and one of them was resolved in two days.
So we shall see. I don't know. Sam just got, Sam just left a comment. So now I'm going directly
over to him. He just left. I hope he's up here. He just said resolved by Monday. I don't know. Sam just got, Sam just left a comment. So now I'm going directly over to him.
He just left.
I hope he's up here.
He just said resolved by Monday.
I don't know what comment that was on.
I would,
I would take that bet.
I would take a resolved by Monday bet.
All right.
We're talking about,
I'm going to check the prediction markets,
not the betting markets.
Let's see what it says.
I actually think they have a worker for this.
I don't know.
There has to be.
There is. How long will the government
shut down for? But by Monday, so
more than five days
or something. How long will the government
shut down for? More than five days is that
76% chance of yes.
Oh. Does that include the weekend?
That includes non-trading days?
Yeah. Okay.
I bet you the quantity of people betting on it
is far higher than the quantity of people worried about it.
Yes.
The volume's honestly kind of medium.
It's not that big a volume.
Yeah, but I mean,
I don't think it's that big a volume
if people worried about it either is my point.
And like Taylor Swift's releasing her new album soon.
I mean,
how can you be bearish when all these things are coming together?
Yeah, exactly.
The Cowboys are tying games.
Like, come on.
I'm an Eagles fan.
Oh, okay.
So that was, yeah, maybe.
The Jets are 0-4.
I need other stuff.
I'm looking.
The Eagles are 4-0, so it's all good.
The Eagles are always 4-0, aren't they?
Not always. There's a period of time where it was rough out there. so it's all good. The Eagles are always 4-0, aren't they?
Not always.
There was a period of time where it was rough out there.
Yeah, you guys have the torch for now.
We'll let you have it.
We'll let you have it.
It's been a while.
I don't know if we'll ever get it back.
Maybe Jerry's got to, I don't know.
Whoa, dude.
That was going a dark place for a second.
I didn't say whoa, whoa, whoa.
I didn't say that.
You know it.
Don't put that on me.
You were leading everyone there.
That was dark.
No, no, I didn't mean that.
I love Jerry.
Kind of.
Not as much as I used to.
Elon Musk, Forbes, he crossed over $500 billion, by the way, there for a second. I saw a post from Sora the other day that he had already crossed it.
So I don't know.
But I'm seeing a Forbes right now, 499.8.
Now, I normally use Bloomberg's billionaire index.
I don't care or know the difference,
but I'm just going to take the number for the tweet.
I'm being transparent, but apparently 499.8 billion.
We don't have any earnings coming up after the close as well.
Obviously, no macro data after the close.
Tomorrow we get initial jobless claims,
which I think we still get.
I don't know. I don't think we do.
That's fun.
Wait, we don't get the initial?
We'll find out tomorrow morning at 8.30, I guess, live.
Don't quote me on that,
but I
talked to someone today who
mentioned that we won't.
So let's be real.
Normally, we would always get this stuff.
And most of the stuff is already in the can, right?
Those numbers are pretty much compiled.
Even Friday's non-farm paper is pretty much done.
This is a political move.
Okay.
So, you know, and I'm not trying to say, like, it's a political move.
We normally get this stuff.
Ash's mic.
More like fake news mic.
Well, I remember he fired the head of the BLS and put in his own person there.
So it's just a little bit of a political move here.
It's really not a big deal.
It's just a little bit of politics.
Did he?
Yeah.
It's not only that, but this is a discussion that I was having with some really smart people at Future Proof a few weeks back.
You know, society as a whole, we've kind of moved into a post-truth world where, like, the truth doesn't matter that much.
We're moving into a post-data world where data really doesn't matter that much anymore.
really doesn't matter that much anymore. Now, people say it doesn't matter until it does.
Now, people say it doesn't matter until it does.
But just think about how many things we've seen over the last six months or 12 months where,
oh, this data is going to come out and it doesn't matter what it is, good, bad, and different. The
market just continues to march higher. And I just think it's because when you have a revision of,
what was it, a million jobs, right? These numbers don't mean anything anymore to a lot of
people i'm not saying they're not important to some people but i'm saying more and more
the participants in this market the current one we're in are in a post data pro momentum
proactivity mode
somebody did
until you're proven wrong i get it
there is no dip though there hasn't been anything that's a great point there is no dip is there
here's no dip to buy my bmr had a little bit of a dip it's doing okay there's this little thing
called a little thing called tariff gate in april that was kind of a dip but we haven't seen anything since that the trader in chief is in charge i'm
just telling you i mean that's what's going on here by the way i should have known qs 20 20
now qs i just saw someone tweet about it too i should have known intel was going to continue
going when he posted like in the oval office like buying Intel at 20 and like selling it at 30
or like making money on it at his desk. Like I should have known Intel was going to continue
going at least for a little bit more. Let me throw you a crazy one, Evan. So
all the hot 90 stocks are flying, right? People forget NVIDIA was a 90 stock, right? Intel,
90 stock, even BlackBerry. Go look at Cisco. Cisco is in a 25-year base right
now, just at the top of that base, right? I know it sounds crazy, but the next thing you can hear
in the next six months might be Cisco breaking out to all-time highs.
Wow, Planet Labs continue going. Everything's working though. So I was bagged on the stock
for a couple of years from 2021. Stock Talk mentioned it earlier. We're up.
Even your dot-com bags.
There was another one.
I mean, MicroStrategy was a dot-com bubble name.
I saw a headline from the dot-com era about this crash around Sailor thing.
And I was like, oh, that's not real.
But it actually was.
Yeah, there's some big cups. cups cup and handle whatever we call it
remember microsoft was in a 13-year base people said that's where money goes to die
steve valware yeah that's right he's we're not a multi the amount of multi-decade base breakouts
that are happening in the last three months across multiple industries and sectors generally
is not a top signal yeah you're bearish like people are bearish and you're saying and we're
have stuff like that obviously not you but it's just crazy like you're seeing multi-decade like
i mean okay i'm obviously gonna do a rant about centrist later which is hitting you all time
highs today up seven and a half percent it's my largest position of we all knew it was coming
we all knew yeah but i mean but but this is an example of what i'm saying like look at centris's 25 year chart
like zoom out for 25 years and look at the monthly chart and look at the volume in the last year
it is like it dwarfs the volume for 25 years of action and it's not just the nuclear names
you'd see that
on Centris. You can see that on energy fuels. If you don't look at nuclear, you can look at names
in the drone industry. You can look at names in the aerospace and defense industry. Look at Kratos,
which is my core aerospace and defense position. Look at Kratos' chart. Zoom out 25 years,
just like with LEU. These stocks have been around a long time. Look at the volume this year. You's like, you're not even saying it's like, Oh, it's all time high volume, right?
Some people casually say that like, this is like five times the previous levels, right?
Could it, could it be like, Oh, that these stocks are all headed for some epic collapse
simultaneously all in different industries yet. Like maybe, maybe there's some amazing rug pull that's on around the horizon but i'm not smart enough to figure out whether
that's going to happen what i do see is that price is entering territory it hasn't for decades
on volume it hasn't seen for decades like what i mean if you're a technical guy, like, that's the holy grail.
That is the holy grail.
All-time record volume by three or four or five X on breaking out of multi-decade basis.
Like, that's as bullish as it gets, technically.
You can ask any chart guy in the world.
They'd be like, that's pretty much as bullish as it gets.
So what from here?
I mean, do you just ride the train?
It's easier to say that if you've been sitting long on the market.
If you're sitting long in positions you have a deep cost basis on,
it's much easier to stay long than it is to get long.
I say that all the time.
But for people who are looking at the market now saying, like,
nosebleed valuations, I can't stomach this.
Look at the headlines in 21, 23, 24, 25.
They all said the same thing.
Equity valuations are high.
Multiples are high.
They have been high.
And in favorable conditions, they will remain high.
It's almost like people don't know what multiple expansion is.
Yeah.
And another thing I see is when I had this debate with, I think Big Beat is his name,
but he was up here and we had this debate back and forth a couple weeks ago about bear markets versus bull markets or whatever.
But one of the stats he brought up was like margin usage is at all time highs.
Like, of course, the market is at all time highs.
Like equity, that's a correlative effect.
equity, that's a correlative effect. If equities are at all-time highs, margin deployment in dollar
amount should be at all-time highs, not to mention all the inflation we've seen over the period that
margin has existed, which is also a supplement. These are nominal figures. People are not looking
at inflation-adjusted figures to say these things. And then they're making these broad sweeping
statements and everyone gets scared. They're like, oh, margin is at all time high. That must be a bad sign.
Margin was at all time high last year, too.
And it was at all time highs in 2021, too.
And it was at all time highs in 2016 and 2014.
So like, was that, has it been a reliable top signal?
What the fuck?
Not at all.
And in fact, nothing is a reliable top signal.
Like anyone out there who tries to convince you that there's any singular data point that's going to tell you when a top is happening, whether it's the Buffett indicator.
Remember the Buffett indicator last year?
The start of last year, everyone's like showing the Buffett indicator saying like, well, get ready for a market crash.
OK, the Nasdaq has doubled since the Buffett indicator showed up.
Has doubled.
The Nasdaq.
Not a stock.
So like so much for that so if the buffett indicator is not going
to tell you if rsi is not going to tell you if the p ratio of the s&p 500 is not going to tell
you if your your uncle's not going to be able to tell you when the economy is going to crash
even your favorite economist somebody with 20 phds in a in the economy that's not even a real thing
but even they wouldn't be able to tell you so just dance
just dance you'll know when to stop dancing you stop when your uncle that's never bought a stock
in his life calls you to say i think i'm going to get to the market that's what you're gonna
or or or you stop dancing when you look around and there's no music playing anymore and to me
those moments are so obvious.
Like, I think people get scared because they're like, I'm not going to know when that happens. You will know. You will know. You know, markets make it very obvious when
they're ready to correct. Right. Just look at the action in February. We just talked about DeepSeek.
The markets clearly, through price, said we are ready to go down
the deep seek can't the deep seek day destroyed charts right and what happened a month later a
brutal 27 percent peak to drop decline in the markets in which stocks went down 60 70 80 percent
you if you want signal you don't sit around wondering when it's going to happen. You wait for it to happen, quite literally. And yes, you will give gains back. And this is another
reason also why it is harder for the short-term guys in moments like that, because yes, they can
say, well, I don't have any long-term positions on the table, but it's very hard for those people
to sit through positions if they do have them because their
back's against the wall.
They bought it two weeks ago and now the market's correcting.
You have to get out, right?
So having an approach that allows you to weather those storms with assets in your possession
is highly important.
And some people separate them.
Like Brian mentioned earlier, he's a long-term accountant, which he accumulates those assets and he's a trading account. I know a lot of people,
good traders and investors that function that way. For me, I have all my assets consolidated
in one active account. I have a very, very, very small other account, but it's insignificant.
And what I try to do is over time, as the cycles progress, you want to know that you're owning things, not just trading everything.
You know, that's a hugely important but small point that I think people overlook.
And then by the end of cycle, they don't realize that they weren't paying attention to doing that, you know, and they end up with no assets.
So the goal, I i think at the end of
the day is to accumulate assets especially if you're young if you're young especially
we got 32 minutes now until the close
two minutes any final things people anyone who was itching to get out before we close?
I mean, there is really nothing to say
with the Vikings Therapeutics.
This thing's coming back.
Obviously, the market is coming back,
but I think a lot of you guys can say
Biotech is catching quite a bit lately.
Yeah, Lally is doing great today.
Yeah, Nova Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Pfizer.
Those three stocks are rallying.
Hams just did not get the memo
here, but they're one of the
companies that will likely
get much impact from...
Basically, all the companies that could
benefit from onshore and getting some sort of
deal with Trump. That's seen
as a positive catalyst here.
It was actually pretty interesting. I still don't fully understand these deals and why
is it bullish for these companies. J&J also didn't get the message.
I didn't get it.
Just about unshoring their manufacturing for all the medication.
So you take a company like Eli Lilly and Novodortis, they have a lot of
plants outside of the U.S. Novodortis is actually not a U.S. company.
So it would be in their favor to continue adding factories. They already made
a $4.1 billion investment to build a factory on the east side of the country. And you're probably
going to see something else come out of that. You're probably going to see additional-
The better side of the country.
The better side of the country. But you're probably going to see some additional investment
with that. And that's, I mean, overall, that's going's gonna be bullish i don't think it's gonna be really gonna change much
in terms of their financials but no one nor does has been trading a pretty suppressive valuation
for quite some time uh so you know kind of like a unh you see like one good catalyst and it just
rips back up right so today is probably the beginning of that it's recovering the 20 day
and 50 day moving averages um can't really say a whole lot about the volume.
It is above average, but it's not glaringly out there.
You look at Eli Lilly.
Just look at those freaking two candles the last couple of days.
It's up like over $100.
So it is money coming back into these things.
Eli Lilly actually recovered the 200-day moving average today.
That's pretty freaking bullish.
Stock market closed.
If you heard those bells, that was me trying to be like,
I don't know, we don't have one.
I thought maybe it could be a little something.
I didn't get the bell that Amit got from, like, Timo or something.
Nah.
The Airbnb we stayed at had a cowbell.
So, this is loud.
Okay.
We're good, we're good, we're good.
Market did close there, though.
Nice close for the market.
Wonderful close.
Like I said, no earnings or anything we're expecting here in after hours.
If we're going to get PRs, after hours, they come every five minutes or so.
405, 410, 415, 432 are pretty popular.
But they do generally happen right around right after the market
is close.
I feel like something's going to happen.
I feel like there's going to be some news for one of these biotech stocks.
Like something's going to come out.
I don't know which company it is, but that is just crazy runs this morning for a lot
of these companies.
Something's going to happen.
Yeah.
There are definitely announcements coming
soon i don't know if it's running up into it i also don't fully even i still don't fully understand
necessarily why it's why it's super bullish for for these companies but oh i'll give it some time
i don't necessarily trade that much in that space anyway if i'm being real we do have a medical school
dropout up here i don't know if he has any thoughts on this as well we also got no we talked about
this logically yesterday you're just the restoring of uh medicine i don't know this whole pfizer or
this whole trump rx or whatever what's happening i mean i understand that a little bit but like why
are these companies ripping right now off of like all right they're making deals i mean the biggest trade in the
market right now i mean at least in my opinion my portfolio speaks to this i think is u.s reshoring
i think that's the single biggest thing in the market and and building of u.s supply chains and
you ever looked at this rok company before yes i have i know i know very well in fact
you know rockwell is that theme in generally right yes it fits the the the way fits what theme
on shoring or reshoring yes yeah and it fits the automation theme yeah um but but anyway
the reason that this is the hottest theme in the market is
because it is multifaceted like the nuclear theme the aerospace and defense theme now this part of
the health care theme uh the semiconductor theme all of these thematics which are some of the
biggest themes in the whole market and were prior to this administration, right? The nuclear stocks
started running last year, keep in mind. And on top of that, all of these industries were hot
last year too. So what has changed is that there's become a more granular focus from a policy
standpoint on those industries, but more importantly, B, the overall policy goal that has been communicated by the administration through
almost everything they've done by executive order is we want stuff built here.
Now, is that realistic?
No, not for a lot of industries.
Okay.
And the companies in place know that.
But if you're a smart stock picker, what you can do is chase the premium that is being generated as a result of that theme.
And almost all the stocks I've talked about this year are related to this.
Centris is related to this.
Nebius is related to this.
Energy Fuels is related to this.
Kratos is related to this.
Like all of my high conviction stocks from this year are related to this energy fuels is related to this kratos is related to this like all of the my high conviction stocks from this year are related to this theme or this idea of i mean amcor one of my most recent
high conviction positions which is now a top three waiting in my portfolio i opened it just a few
weeks ago and gave you guys a 40 minute thesis on the space of why i opened it that's a u.s
reshoring play right so you're saying these this medical
area it's all like a reshoring thing yes it's all a reshoring the money is going to reshoring plays
because the market i think rightfully so is imagining the potential of an actual u.s reshoring
operation keep in mind there is there's been no significant attempt to reshore industry to the United States since World War II.
I'm not saying we haven't had industry here.
We've had amazing high-tech industry in America for very long.
We still do.
Companies like SpaceX exist in the United States.
People forget about that.
These are very, very sophisticated hardware companies.
The best hardware in the world is still made in America and always has been.
But in terms of an actual attempt through a policy lens to renew American industry, there has not been a concerted effort since World War II.
So what we're talking about is...
Starbucks increased its dividends.
I thought you were about to say Starbucks is a reshaw. I was about to freak out.
I thought you were about to say Starbucks is reshawing coffee or something. I was about to freak out like it was a starbucks restoring coffee or
something i was about to be like no evan no only a one cent dividend increase continue but um
that's funny it was just funnily time but um what was i saying yeah so there is a potential
i think the market is seeing that trump has what trump has three and a half or 3.3 ish years left to make things happen.
And the market, I think, is imagining a scenario in which if they stay this aggressive and front footed on policy directives, which they've been very aggressive on policy directives.
I know people may agree or disagree with some of them on the social side of things,
but in terms of the economic side of things in the nuclear industry and aerospace and
defendants industry, it's really hard to argue that they've been very progressive. I don't mean
progressive in a liberal sense, like political sense. I mean, progressive in terms of moving
things, like moving, like regulations along, green lighting policies, green lighting licensure.
They've been very aggressive with that. I like that as a pro business guy. So anyway, the market is imagining
a scenario where the administration actually has the ability in three years to meaningfully move
these industries forward, to spur investment, to provide ease of regulation and ease of licensure
to accelerate these industries. And in my view,
three years is enough time to do that meaningfully, especially in industries that are federally
regulated by their very nature, like nuclear. The reason I've been so gung-ho on centrist and
energy fuels this year is part of for that reason, because I know certain industries are more
sensitive to government policy intervention than others.
And it's important to make that distinction because people think everything the government talks about or everything the White House talks about is a buy and a hold.
Most of them are just fleeting pumps.
And those stocks won't hold their gains.
But the nuclear stocks have held their gain because the market rightfully understands that the administration can affect policy in nuclear energy because the doe effectively controls not only american nuclear
energy but the dov doe american doe by default effectively controls global nuclear policy
the europeans you think are taking signal from anyone but but us of course not and the europeans
are the de facto leaders of anyone who's not taking signal from us.
So by default, everyone's taking signal from us on energy security, on weapons security. I mean,
outside of the Chinese and the Russians, obviously, because they're parties of their own.
But everyone else is looking to the United States for guidance on this industry, for leadership on energy of all sorts, not just nuclear. And so the market understands there is an ability to influence
in the nuclear industry, unlike a lot of these other industries. And the same thing with healthcare,
like we're just talking about right now. The reason the stocks are responding is because there is a
conscious and present ability for the American executive to influence the healthcare industry,
and even more so in cooperation with Congress. And so where there is sensitivity to executive
power, you will see a more meaningful response in those industries. That's logical, because
you would expect that, right? The market knows that there's some stuff that the administration
wants that they can't do. Nuclear is not one of those things. Healthcare is not one of those
things. We've seen American administrations in the past wield tremendous power over healthcare.
You've seen what the Obama administration did with healthcare.
You've seen what the Reagan administration did with healthcare.
American administrations traditionally have held tremendous power over the healthcare industry.
And so that's why the market's responding to it today.
And that's why the market responded to nuclear.
And that's why the market's responding to rare earths also, by the way.
Why has that theme held water?
Why are those stocks holding up and not dumping?
Because those stocks are holding up because rare earths is another industry
where government policy and government initiative and grants are the whole game.
That's the whole fucking game.
Like anyone who has followed mining, Leo, stop parking at the
door. Anyone who's followed mining meaningfully or has followed rare earth processing or anything,
if you followed any sort of metals industry meaningfully, the first thing you know
is that many of these companies, even after securing an asset, sit in arbitration and
regulation and licensure proceedings for years, for years.
And many of the stocks that own these types of assets can't even commercialize the assets,
even if they have the ability to do so, because they're waiting for, you know, whoever, whether
it's an Indian tribe or a local government or a protesting group, which has happened in many cases, or, you know,
a city petition, which has happened in many cases, all sorts of fucking bullshit happens
to prevent mines from going up or from processing facilities for going up.
And I'm not saying in every case that people are wrong.
It's a case by case basis.
I'm sure there's some places where mines shouldn't be built.
I'm not purporting to know what should or shouldn't be done on a case by case basis. I'm sure there's some places where mines shouldn't be built. I'm not purporting to know what should or shouldn't be done on a case-by-case basis. What I am saying, though, is that
the American executive has the ability to literally manually accelerate those proceedings,
to go in and provide directives to the DOE. Hey, we're not doing a nine-month process
for this mine licensing. We're doing a 60-day process.
Get the inspectors in there.
Get them out.
Tell us if it's viable.
Tell us if it's safe.
And if it is, we are building.
And that, I like that approach.
I think it's good for everybody.
I think it's good for jobs.
I think it's good for the business.
I think it's good for the market.
So I'm a fan of that approach.
I know not everyone is.
But whether you're a fan of that approach or not is irrelevant to the consequences of that approach. I know not everyone is. But whether you're a fan of that approach or not is irrelevant to the consequences of that approach. The consequences of that approach are,
hey, business, you want to build? Build. That's the consequence. And if you're in an industry
where capacity expansion is meaningful, then it's a one plus one equation. The market sees company A is in industry B.
Industry B is heavily influenced by the government. Industry B is therefore likely to grow.
Company A will benefit from the growth of industry B, not rocket science. And the market sees these things early. And they're obvious trades. Like,
I just posted a rant on Twitter earlier about centrist and energy fuels. And I said,
the reason so many people miss these obvious trades is because they did not understand the
strategic value of the assets in relation to the government. There is no asset like White Mesa Mill,
you know, and we were buying UU as a 2 billion market cap.
It's still under 10 billion market. There's no asset in the country like it.
Same thing with American centrifuge plan, right, in Piketon, Ohio.
There's no asset like it in the nation.
That made these obvious buys at that time.
The stocks have both tripled since May, tripled.
And guess what? They're probably still going higher
if you look at those monthly charts.
So was that an obvious trade?
Yeah.
If you will go back to May,
look at some of the comments
under my centrist post from May.
People are like, dude, this is obvious.
The Trump administration
has been forecasting nuclear.
Like everyone already knows about this trade.
That's what people were saying.
They're like, the stocks are already up
40, 50% off the lows. Like everyone knows about this trade. And I was like, okay, that's what people were saying they're like the stocks are already up 40 50 off the lows like everyone knows about this trade and i was like okay that's fine with me
if everyone knows it's fine with me it's even better you know so you have to have a develop
an understanding of like when you look at what the government does contextualize it with what they are able to do that's how you find signal
in in the noise when it comes to all these prs and there's so much government noise especially
in an administration that's as vocal as this there's so many headlines trump says a lot of
stuff the truth is is there's only some of that stuff that he can directly influence and you
should pay attention when he mentions stuff that he can directly influence. And you should pay attention when he mentions stuff
that he can literally manually influence because he will influence it and there's money to be made.
So yeah, that's how you should read government information. That's why the healthcare stocks
are moving. That's why the nuclear stocks moved. And that's an important lesson about context,
I think. I just got a couple notifications. I got that
all of the 49ers offense is
pretty much out. That's unfortunate.
And then Stock Talk, a stock you've traded a little
bit, announced a new CFO named
John North, a grinder.
That's a new CFO.
So funny.
Okay, I'm just going to go through some fucking stocks.
Wait, actually, no stocks let's pull back
one of the conversations we had earlier
was around the sports betting themes
there was a lot of comments from the crowd
I'm looking down in the spaces chat
and I think we should revisit some of them
maybe you want to go down there
and organize it by most recent
I don't want to do that
okay
but yeah you can cue me up what's a good question it by most recent. I don't want to do that. Okay.
But yeah, you can queue me up. What's a good question?
Don't ask the dumb ones if there are dumb ones.
But yes, I'll take a question.
I'll have to read them first, unfortunately.
It's not hard to see that prediction markets
often have better odds than betting markets.
It's just math.
I just don't know about competing with parlay payouts.
There haven't been payouts.
Any parlays, I don't think, on it.
Good question.
Fellas, keep in mind, licensed sports bets limit, ban,
any better that wins consistently,
or even betters that display patterns, whatever.
Thus, no broker like Robin Hood will ever take their bread.
Imagine you bet on Dallas.
Are you just reading every comment?
I am, because you didn't give me time to think.
Okay, well you could think. Why don't you just
read through them?
The problem is you go 75
versus 50 minutes later.
Well, no, but I'm saying I can go through
a couple of stocks one at a time and then you can
jump in when you have a good question.
That's a good way to do it.
Alright. That's what we'll to do it. All right.
That's what we'll do.
Okay, cool.
So anyway, Dragonfly.
Talked about this yesterday.
We had a long discussion about it.
It was up another 14%.
DPRO.
Today, yeah, up another 14%.
I told you about this one, right?
Yep, it's almost a double now from our entry at 519.
Very, very recent entry on this one, actually.
So this was a bit of a collaboration between me and Mystic, who is probably my most trusted guy when it comes to talks. I just talk
to him about everything. He talks to me about a lot of stuff. I talk to him about a lot of stuff.
We share articles back and forth. But I've known him for years. Just a very, very smart guy. I know
people on Twitter love him. And he's a good friend of mine. And I trust him because he's willing to tell me things about stocks that I don't want to hear.
I hate confirmation bias.
Like, I hate it.
I actually even hate when my LLMs give me confirmation bias.
You know, sometimes I'll run my positions through LLMs and I'll be like, you know, tell me the risks or tell me the competitive risk.
And the LLM will be like sucking up to the company. And I fucking hate that. So yeah, anyway, he's just a very intellectually
honest person, but I, we, me and him were talking about D pro for a couple of weeks.
We started talking about it in early September and we kind of saw an opportunity for value
capture here, not value in the traditional sense, but in terms of peer value. So what we kind of
noticed was that all the other small cap drone plays in the industry were trading at one plus
billion dollar valuations. RCAT, UMAC, ONDS, those are the three, the big three in terms of the small
cap drone stocks. And we kind of looked at that and we were like, why is D-Pro trading at one
tenth of the valuation when all of these companies effectively are doing
just a couple million dollars in revenue, right? None of them are scaled. They're all small cap
for own plays, but they all have opportunity to win contracts. And so they're all trading at
somewhat of a premium, obviously, to their basement valuation because of that, because
one contract can 5x these companies. But to us, it didn't make sense so we were talking about that and then i brought up to him the chart of uh dpro the monthly chart and um i was like he's not much of a chart guy but i
was like this is like one of the craziest charts i've seen in a long time and i think i posted on
twitter and said this is the prettiest small cap chart in the whole market and i had zero small
caps in my portfolio at that time uh this is just a couple weeks ago i had no small caps only mid caps and above and that's generally all i deal with i generally don't go below uh
you know a billion dollar valuation generally um you know even generally even above a two is usually
where i'm focused two to ten but anyway i didn't have any small cap exposure and i liked the way
small caps were looking i was like maybe i want to get a little bit more speculative exposure so
we picked it up 519 and i mean the stock's trading nine bucks today in
just a couple weeks it's done nothing but go up it just goes up every day and they had an army
contract yesterday they announced stock is up 30 since the contract was announced yesterday morning
and look i expect an offering to come with this company at some point but like i want to have one
of those plays in my portfolio that can just make an insane move you, I want to have one of those plays in my portfolio that can just
make an insane move. You know, I want to have one of those. I've afforded myself the opportunity to
take that risk, you know, because I've worked so hard this year. And most of the picks I've had
this year have been high quality stocks that I can help hold stress-free, you know, like Nebius
and Kratos and Robinhood. Those have been my big winners. So it's like those stocks have earned me
the sort of buying power to speculate a little bit here. And so I don't ever really talk about
small caps. This was the first one I brought up in I don't know how many months, but this is one
that I took a position in a five and it's almost 10 now. It actually hit 10 this morning. So it's
great to see, you know, and I'm still holding because I do think it can make a crazier move
if another contract is announced, especially if they get the win at the T-Rex program.
You know, there's so many big drone stocks out there and Aerovironman namely, but none of them are on the T-Rex program outside of good old DPRO.
So, you know, I think their Flex FPV drone is pretty impressive.
They've actually done work with the Arizona Sheriff's Office, who, by the way is very tight with the trump administration which is an interesting
anecdote but dragonflies done a lot of work with the arizona sheriff's office uh for border security
and so that's an interesting link they have to the u.s government as well because the arizona
sheriff's department is like the biggest trump fans ever and they all endorse trump and their
sheriff endorsed trump and so they have kind of an indirect connection to the white house that way too so um yeah i think
i think it's very interesting i think their the deal yesterday with the army was very very
interesting the language of it i know there was no dollar value announced but i think it's a big
validation either way um so yeah that's uh that's d, just another terrific day for that stock.
It's really been hanging the portfolio up these last couple days.
But Centris was also up 7% today, another 7%.
I know I spent a lot of time talking about this name yesterday.
I don't know how much.
I've spent maybe 150 hours on these spaces this year,
talking about Centris, LEU, LEU, LEU.
It's been my biggest position since late June. Opened it up in May.
I tweeted today, and I'll pin it up at the top. I posted this on July 16th. I said,
our Centris Energy shares are now up 132% from our $96 entry in May. I still have not sold a
single share, and the position has become the highest weighting in my portfolio. Goal is to buy more on any significant drawdown. Tremendous cost-based flexibility. I posted that on July 16th.
The stock was $200 lower. So I kind of put my money where my mouth is. When I pound the table
on stuff on Twitter and I'm posting monthly charts, like, I don't know if people remember when I posted the monthly chart of Kratos when it was 30 bucks
and I said, I am not selling a share.
This thing is going to a hundred dollars.
Well, Kratos is almost a hundred dollars now.
Like, I don't say, I don't, uh, like mince my words.
I'm very, very clear.
Like when I like a stock a lot and I'm not one of those guys that's like oh maybe it goes
up maybe it doesn't i'm like i really think it's gonna go up and you know there's stocks i'm wrong
about i've taken losses this year you can see them in my portfolio chart that i share there's there's
it's not straight up it's not straight up it's not a line straight up it's not like it went from
zero to 280 in a straight direct arrow look at all the volatility look at the drawdowns look at the
pullbacks look at the moments where i was like oh oh shit, am I going to give back more than I need
to? A lot of those moments. A lot of those moments. A lot of losses. I think, dude, every trader and
investor takes losses. Period. There's always a stock that just doesn't work out the way you
thought it was going to work out. It's just part of the game. But what matters is the ones you
really pound the table on and say you're not selling a share and you see this crazy thing happening in front of you and those ones keeping
the size on those ones that's what makes you all the money like every year i go through my tickers
that i've made money on in a year you know whether it's realized or unrealized and always the biggest
numbers are all my core positions they're always always the biggest numbers. And they're by far,
you know, because they're sized bigger, they're held for longer, they're trimmed less. And so the compounded gains are much higher. And that's the goal. You want your compounded gains on your
core positions to be very high so that you have the liberty to play in the playground to trade stocks and go in and out of
names that might be hot for a moment i do that too i do that too like i i also you know trade
stuff that i think is hot in the moment or there's a case there's days where i'll day trade an analyst
report you know so you can do both things while also understanding that the goal is, as I said before, to accumulate
high conviction core positions, aka assets over time. And there's going to be stocks that you
think are core positions that you're like, hey, I really like this name. I know a lot about it.
I understand it. This is going to become a core position for me. I'm going to build into it and hold it. And then things go badly. Sometimes the company doesn't execute, they lose
a big customer, maybe a new competitor emerges. Those are the moments where you have to face
yourself and be like, am I going to just lollygag around under this Warren Buffett mentality of like
buy and hold and everything will go up, which by the way, is not what Warren Buffett ever said, but that's what people have adulterated his statement to me.
What Buffett meant by buy and hold was buy good stuff and hold it, not buy anything and hold it.
I guarantee you, I mean, I've never talked to Buffett in person, but I guarantee you,
if you were to go to him today and be like, hey, when you said that, did you mean I can buy any stock and hold it forever?
I guarantee you he would laugh at your face if you thought that that's what he meant.
Because of course he didn't fucking mean that.
He's a stock picker.
Warren Buffett is a stock picker.
As was Peter Lynch.
As is Druckenmiller.
All of the legends, the greatest, those are my big three, Druckenmiller, Lynch, and Buffett.
But everyone has a different big three. but that's my big three, okay, all those guys are stock pickers
at the end of the day, they all have different time horizons, different position books, they
have different amounts of positions, they're stock pickers, that's what you have to remember,
the game is about stock picking, and that also involves sometimes saying, I picked the
wrong one, you're going to have to grapple with that.
And there's this weird mentality that people think, well, no, I'm an investor. I never have
to make that call. Yes, you do. Just because you're not a trader doesn't mean that you're
never going to make a bad call. People invest in bad things too. And they average down and
average down and invest more and more and more with the investment mentality and end up with an enormous bag or blow up their accounts even worse.
I actually know more investors who blew up in 22 than I do traders.
And I'm talking about the pros that I know, not like the retail.
I don't know what the distribution is. But out of the professionals I know who have been doing this for a long time, many more investors blew up in 22 than traders.
Many more.
Because they averaged down into oblivion on stocks that never came back.
back. And many of those stocks still haven't come back even after the face-ripping rally of the last
And many of those stocks still haven't come back, even after the face-ripping rally of the last two years.
two years. So yes, the market is always a winner, but not every stock is always a winner.
That's an important distinction because people think when they're investing
by buying individual stocks that they're investing in the market. You are not. You're investing in
your market, in the market that you have built, in the basket of stocks that you have built.
Your market isn't always going to go up, ladies and gentlemen. Sorry to burst your bubble.
And there's going to be, if you're an Intel investor from 98, or if you're a Cisco investor,
or if you're a, all sorts of companies or if you're a who also all sorts of companies
there's tons of health care companies and oil and gas companies that are either down or flat
on a 25 year return imagine averaging down into that like and forget about the return on the stock
inflation killed you over those 25 years with the stock returning you nothing for that period.
So it does matter if your stock is going up, you know, and again, that toxic investment mentality will make you feel that maybe it doesn't.
It's OK. It's not going up right now, but like they'll come for it eventually.
I believe in the story. I really believe in the company, but it's just going down right now.
That is complacency. That's not intelligence. That's not like some brilliance of yours that
came from Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor. That's stupidity. That's stupidity. You have
to revisit your thesis sometimes. Often what makes people do it is the price.
It's funny. People don't want to revisit their thesis. And then often the price forces them to.
Right. Maybe you're in a stock and price is flat for, let's say, eight quarters.
And you're like, you know, market hasn't found it. It's fine. Yeah, my money could have been
performing at something else. But actually, let's extend this because people are going to think it's fine yeah my money could have been performing in something else but actually let's extend this
because people are going to think it's too short let's say 16 quarters okay stock's flat for 16
quarters net flat i mean i don't mean it has a move net flat okay you're holding the stock you
love the stock you love the company you love the ceo you're thinking yeah i could have my money
somewhere else in those 16 quarters and made a return. But I believe in this company and
you know, they're going to do well. And over this period, by the way, you've been accumulating the
stock because that's what you were told to do, right? Just DCA into it. It's fine. It'll go up.
You've been taught this, right? A lot of people have been taught this.
So then on the 17th quarter, the stock finally reports a gap down in earnings.
It lost a big customer, and a lot of the complacency in the stock and the inability to move was actually forewarning you that this was coming.
The underperformance was forewarning you, but you chose to be convicted for A, B, and C reasons.
So now the stock gaps down 20%.
It's the biggest position in your portfolio.
You've been accumulating it for 16 quarters, and now you're down on it. You're net down on the position now. What do you do now?
Well, some people, and this is a mistake, would double down again and say, no, I'm an investor.
I'm not going to get shaken out by a quarter of volatility. And they double down again. And then
the next quarter, they have another bad quarter.
And the stock is now down another 13%, let's say.
And now you're down.
You've lost a third of your capital that you've accumulated into for 10 years
and not only seen zero upside return, but you've actually lost a third of the capital.
That can be disastrous for your entire trajectory of your financial life
because of sticking to a stock
because you're an investor. You should expect stocks to perform for you because if they don't,
then others will in their place and you will not be in them.
So be cautious adapting any blanket mentality. Yes, I agree that buying and holding
is the way to make money. I'm not saying Buffett was wrong about that, but you have to buy and
hold the right things. Okay. And yes, I agree that taking profits is important, but you also
need to be careful not to take profits too early on your highest conviction positions.
So both of those principles are true, but not always true. And the nuance is what's important.
Like I always say, the nuance is what distinguishes people who are just okay at markets,
who just outperform a little bit from people who really outperform by five or 10x. If you want
performance like that, you have to care about these little things. As bullshit as it might sound or as overly active as it might sound, it doesn't require a tremendous amount of button clicking.
I posted my performance earlier today.
I remember Amit commented and one of Amit's followers replied and said, well, you know, Amit's doing great this year too, but he's not nearly as active as you.
And I was like, dude, I'm not that active.
The people in my community know this.
Like there are weeks where I do nothing, nothing.
I just provide updates on the position.
In fact, there are a lot of weeks like that because I'm not a day trader or a scalper.
I find position stocks that I think are going to go up a lot.
Not a little bit that I find stocks that I think are going to be completely repriced
and I stay in them. That's it. And, you know, over time, you'll have a bigger,
better stomach for it. But really, it goes having the stomach goes back to having the conviction.
Like I always talk about repetitively, repetitively.
Developing that conviction is the only way you're going to ever have the stomach.
You might think you're a tough guy.
I've been through a lot.
I can handle it.
I've seen money come and go.
I hear people say all sorts of psychobabble like that, anecdotal stuff.
It doesn't matter what you think of yourself or who you think you are.
Set yourself up to not be susceptible. Right? Don't say I'll
be able to handle the volatility. Don't worry about me. Like I'm a, I'm a, you know, I'm a big
macho man. Okay. Okay. Or you could just ensure that you have good entries and good cost basis
when that volatility does come. And then you don't need to be a macho man. Then you don't need to be, you know, a hero. You can
just manage it because you're deep in the green. There's no feeling like scrolling through your
portfolio and everything you own, you owned a hundred percent ago. It makes, it makes staying
long so easy because you're like, dude, okay, let it retrace, let it go down 12%, let it go down 7%,
let them do an offering. Like you own the stock so much lower that you just ride it. And so that
matters. And in order to get those entries and get those cost pieces, you need to be technically
literate. And you also need to have a very, very fine comb attention to detail when things are
happening at your company, when things are being mentioned in the quarterly results, when things are happening at your company, when things are being mentioned in the quarterly results,
when PRs are dropped that are relevant,
you need to have a fine comb attention for detail to those things.
Stock talk, can I ask you?
So one of the topics we're going to have on a little bit later,
obviously we've talked to VistaShares and Adam and everyone.
They launched the OMAH ETF around Buffett.
They launched the Ackie one around Ackman.
Anyway, if you looked at the website, part of the conversation is there's going to be
one around Druckenmiller.
So we'll talk more about this later, but I'm curious.
You mentioned him as one of your top three.
I don't know how much we've talked about that before.
that before i remember there's been some lynch talk in here but what do we like about druckenmiller
I remember there's been some Lynch talk in here.
What do we like about Druckenmiller?
i just think he's very very savvy when it comes to his industry specific knowledge and that's
something i admire and i think lynch was the same way like the ability for these guys to be involved
in multiple industries at once and many stocks at once and know the industries well enough and understand
the core thesis in a simple enough way to say it in a sentence on CNBC, that is impressive to me.
And that's the type of stock picker I aspire to be. I like having exposure to multiple industries
at once. If you go through my portfolio, you won't find some core thread linking everything,
maybe USA, but outside of that,
like outside of the American flag,
maybe that links all my positions.
You won't find any real core thread.
You'll find baskets that have different purposes
and positions that have different purposes.
And when I decide to go into an industry,
I aspire to be as simply understanding of that industry the way that Druckenmiller is.
Like if you were to ask Druckenmiller his thesis on an industry, he will tell you in like 10 words.
Right. He can explain it and simplify it like that.
But if you ask him to be elaborate, he can be tremendously elaborate at the same time.
tremendously elaborate at the same time. And I think having that sort of lens on an industry
where you know the basic core thesis at the top level, but if somebody presses you, like, you
know, it's funny, sometimes people are like, oh, you know, did SOCAC really know aerospace and
defense? And they'll press me on the products. And I know all the products and I know all the
peers, you know, same thing with nuclear, same thing with these industries. I really know them.
You know, same thing with nuclear, same thing with these industries. I really know them. And that provides value to manage your picks, to know what to expect for them, for your stocks. And Druckenmiller knows what to expect for his name. He's sort of an oracle in ways with his industry theses. So yeah, I'm a big fan of Druckenmiller.
out of Druckenmiller.
I'm looking at his
largest holdings, but I believe it is right now.
I don't know if he's still at Duquesne
family office fully.
Natera, NTRA, we got Teva Pharma.
Taiwan Semi is
close to the top here.
Philip Morris, Mercado Libre.
I'm sure we'll talk more about some of these specific.
12.8% of the fund is in this
NTRA name.
I don't know if you've ever heard Druckenmiller use the term pig-headed bets.
Have you ever heard of that?
I don't know.
Honestly, no, I don't think so.
Yeah, so what that means is it's actually George Soros' term,
but Druckenmiller's used it before too.
But what it means is high-conviction bets,
and you cut your losses quickly.
That's my.
All right.
I won't sell the MNR.
All right.
I won't.
but I'm saying like,
that's my trading in a nutshell.
Like that's again,
these guys are all obviously legends.
I'm not comparing myself to them, but I try to replicate my strategy after a lot of these guys in,
in ways,
not exactly.
I don't own as many stocks as drunken
miller owned i don't have a he's got flutter in the top 10 though it's a little off but
same thing yeah i wouldn't be surprised if he downsizes that
with all this call you were excited there for a second but we'll see it is it is near the top
i mean i don't own it i wasn't that. It's in a similar theme, though. It's that sports betting
area. It's my WM calls, spy
calls. I don't know how much these
weigh at least. 13S won't. I'm sure we'll talk
more about this.
But medical names here at the top.
Yeah. He likes industry a lot.
He talked about it a lot.
I'm surprised you're not more into it as a
failed medical student.
I don't really need to.
I don't really need exposure to it to get what I need out of this market.
I have enough rate-sensitive exposure,
and I have enough economic recovery exposure
that I just don't need the healthcare exposure.
I mean, my book is...
It was a good day for them.
Yeah, it was.
It was a good day for my stocks, too.
It was a good day for their stocks, too. It was a good day for them. Yeah, it was. But a good day for my stocks, too. It was a good day for their stocks, too.
Yeah, it was a good day for everyone's stocks.
I had a great morning, but it retreated.
Dude, coming into the morning,
it was Apple and BM&R green
and a lot of red.
I was feeling great.
When did the day okay?
It's because they're looking
to dilute more
probably. Maybe
probably. We'll see but they're having a nice move
in the morning. A decent reaction
off this US government shutdown.
Yeah.
I think in the future
the Treasuries are going to trade at discounts to now.
So it's actually
interesting because bitcoin
closed right at the 50 20 ma and then just broke out today theorem closed right on there too so
pretty interesting to see how that's going to turn out that's obviously going to affect bm and r after
um but yeah i would say further into the future that these treasured in going to trade a discount.
I think as long as you have Bitcoin in a long-term upward trajectory, then Ethereum in this case,
it's kind of hard to argue that it's going to be trading at a discount at any point.
I believe in a future where Apple is the largest company in the world and BMNR is M2MNAV.
It might happen depending if Ethereum continues to run.
What's that, like 1.4 right now?
So it was at 1.6 at some point.
For the record, BM&R would just buy back stock.
They do have a share buyback offering,
but we don't need to go down this train.
As soon as it gets below one one m nav then they
will but we're still ways above it and they still haven't gotten five percent so we'll see
i find it funny i'd stock talk i don't hear you talk about drunken miller that much on the
on the spaces like we don't just naturally bring up these famous investors. On the day we're talking about it,
they bring them up.
I talk about Lynch a lot.
Lynch is my number one.
Who's the number two?
Drucker Miller and then Buffett.
Do you just throw Buffett on there
so the people leave you alone?
Do you actually believe that?
No, I do think Buffett's a great stock picker.
He's just not a stock picker in my style,
which is why he's number three.
He's much more conservative than I am you know he looks he wants like real cash flow generators
but he's none like he's nevertheless a great stock picker so i mean can he pick certain stocks like
he can't but it's not just about picking it's about picking and holding like the thing with
stock picking is that some people think it just ends at the picking part it doesn't it's about
how long you hold it right and that on that exit on the execution part
warren has executed right and that's the difference that's the difference is like whenever i talk about
stock picking people go like well i picked some banger stocks did you hear me talk about this
stock in 2021 i'm like did you hold it you know and the answer is always like oh i mentioned it
though like it doesn't matter like
twitter's all idea generators that's all bullshit guys that doesn't matter idea generation look at
my idea look how much my idea went up that doesn't matter performance matters execution matters how
long did you hold it did you did you get shaken out when it went down 17 because a lot of people
do a lot of people bring up an idea. It has really bad price action. And
then one day they have some crazy news and the stock goes up 200%. And everybody's like, look,
I told you that's stupid. That's nonsense. And that's all of Twitter. What matters is,
did you buy it and hold it through all of that and into the move? That's execution. That's why
Buffett makes the list because Buffett executed. He held stuff. He didn't get shaken out of nonsense
through bear markets and cycles.
He held high conviction positions and saw insane compounding.
So Buffett deserves credit for that.
Yeah, he's a fantastic stock picker.
But more importantly, he executed.
He held.
And there's a lot of great investors, celebrity investors who didn't hold positions.
I mean, Ackman gets laughed out a lot for what happened with Netflix.
But I mean, you know, a lot of great investors have gotten shaken out of positions and, or haven't had the conviction to hold through multiple cycles. And as a result,
have not seen the compounded returns that people like Buffett have seen. But, you know,
there are other guys like Lynch who are looking for big swing trades, you know,
and like, that's a different type of mentality. And it's different to mentality and it's different to be it's different to be great at that
versus being great at just being a buy and hold guy and i try to do a little bit of both i have
stocks that i don't want to ever sell like i hope i won't ever have to sell robin hood with a 19
cost basis maybe i will maybe i won't but i will i hope i won't ever have to sell you sell calls
and sell puts and stuff when you're even getting thinking about it? I do sometimes.
Yeah, I do.
So I don't sell puts, but I do sometimes sell calls.
If I feel like it's really safe, like if there's ever a day of like
extreme speculation and like the 30% out of the money calls in the
week are trading at a crazy price, like, yeah, I'll sell some,
you know, pick up some pennies.
But I try not to do it on high conviction positions.
Try not to.
I try not to because you never know what can happen.
And like with centrist,
for example,
there are moments where I thought about it and if I had done it,
I would have gotten steamrolled and they would,
my shares would have been called away.
So I'm glad I did.
And,
you know,
even like the other day with me and Jag,
when we're talking about like risk management,
I mentioned,
he was talking about like buying or selling puts and selling calls on
centrist.
And I was like, yeah, I mean, I don't want to do it because cent selling puts and selling calls on centrist. And I was like,
yeah,
I mean,
I don't want to do it because centers could rip and look at centers and
send it's up like 80 bucks in like a week.
So I,
I don't want to do that on that position.
I don't want to cap my upside on positions where I'm really high
conviction.
There's other stuff where I don't care about where I'm fine to do
strategies like that.
I'm okay to sell.
Like if it's a position I'm trying to trade,
hell yeah, I'll sell covered calls. Why a position i'm trying to trade hell yeah i'll
sell covered calls why not i'm trying to trade it i want the stock to go up if i sell covered calls
at a higher strike and it goes there and sells great profitable trade move on you know but for
eye conviction positions it's entirely different because i don't want to lose the shares the cost
basis is meaningful to me and people underplay the significance of cost basis on twitter like no one
really acts like they care about it like you know even when we had the debate about contract
rolling and i think jag made some great points and i agree with jag to maximize profits i think
you should roll your contracts but maximizing profits isn't always the goal right like i don't
roll because i don't want my back to be against the wall. I don't want when the market corrects
that all my new rolled options are red all of a sudden. I want to have deep in the money options
that, yeah, by default, they're acting more like shares, much more like shares because they're
deep in the money. But when the stock's down 70%, I'm not like, oh, shit, should I cut these calls
and pick them back up later? I don't even have to think about that because they're so deep in the money.
Like, you know, my genius calls, for example,
are so deep in the money that like that thing corrected hard yesterday
and they're still up over 100%.
So what do I care?
You know?
And that's the beauty of it.
Cost-based advantage matters because it frees you of the psychological burden i'm saying my back's against the wall
i just rolled these contracts they're already red you know i got a question or two from just
data because we've talked about this one a little bit but this one and a question for stock talk
which industries will trump seek ownership of next is there any other ones that we haven't like
the mining one seems to be
one we're talking about right now i guess the semiconductor one is as well i think rare earths
nuclear and semiconductor are the big three i mean shipbuilding seems to be one as well
yeah but shipbuilding is not really going to need to be
shipbuilding is a little bit different because shipbuilding is not something that's going to be
done by industry it's going to be something that's going to be done mostly by the department of defense so shipbuilding is a little
bit more like nuclear is a broad industry right there's civilian aspects to nuclear industry
aerospace and defense same thing like there are partners outside of the united states these
companies have although even that's a little bit more government focused but semiconductors same thing
right like the government isn't the only customer of semiconductors so i think the difference is the
fact that the government has like sort of full control over that but yeah that that counts too
in theory but i think rare metals nuclear those are obviously have been the big focus aerospace and defense in a way as well.
Um, but yeah, I mean, semiconductors is probably next up. And I think with semiconductors,
what they're really going to do is be, is to leverage existing chips at act provisions to
force companies to do things essentially. And I think one of the things they're doing is getting Taiwan TSM to
accelerate TSM Arizona. Like, I know it hasn't really been in the big board news, but I mentioned
this before, I read the Taiwanese newspapers, I get ChatGPT to translate them for me. But if you've
been reading Taiwanese news the last few weeks, that's all they've been talking about is TSM Arizona. Like equipment's
being moved there. They've repurposed equipment that was supposed to go to their new Taiwan plan.
They're sending it to Arizona instead. They're sending new talent there. They're getting visas
approved to send new engineering talents to Arizona. And the Trump administration is fast
tracking those visas, which is surprising considering the administration's stance on immigration, but they're fast tracking those visas for the Taiwanese.
So what is that picture telling me? It's telling me that there is a concerted effort for the administration to say, hey, we don't want to risk a Chinese invasion or a Chinese embargo of Taiwan in the next few years. And before that does or might happen,
we want American chips now. And I don't blame him for that approach. And in fact, for people who do,
I know there's people out there that wherever you have your political viewpoints and may not like
Trump, but even if you don't like Trump, you have to agree with that stance, even if you're a
Democrat, because the Biden administration had the exact same stance. They just had a different
approach. Like this is not a partisan issue. The reshoring of semiconductors is not a partisan
issue. I'm going to be abundantly clear about that. Not at all. Not even like a little bit.
The only thing that's partisan about semiconductor reshoring
is the approach, right? The Biden administration, the Democrats, what they want to do is that they
want to offer chipsack funding, which they did, right? We will fund you to build plants here.
The Trump administration wants to do a different approach. The Republicans in the Trump
administration, what they want to do is they want to force companies to do it through tariffs.
Basically, no, we're not going to give you money, but you have to build here.
Otherwise, you get tariffed and we're your biggest customer.
So you have to listen.
Both approaches work.
I'm not going to say which is better or worse.
That's up to you to decide.
But both approaches work.
The thing that is clear is that there's bipartisan U.S. government support to bring semiconductors here now and both parties want it. That's another one of those obvious trades to me.
And, you know, that's where Amcor comes in, which I've been talking about, which is the largest
domestic semiconductor packaging company in the world. And obviously in the United States,
because they're domestic. And they are building what will be the biggest semiconductor packaging
plant in the
United States in Peoria.
It's supposed to come in 2028.
And my thesis is that it'll come much earlier because Apple and TSM want to appease the
administration.
And the easiest way to do that is not to build chips here.
Building fabs here will take a tremendous amount of time, as TSM is now demonstrating with their
three fab project in Arizona. They're actually moving very, very much more quickly than people
expected. They're a year ahead of schedule, right? Over a year now ahead of schedule. So
props to TSM. They're a fantastic company. But it takes years to put up fab infrastructure. OK, and.
Everyone knows that.
TSM knows that the Trump administration knows that anyone with a brain knows that.
So what's the solution?
Packaging.
That's the solution is that, yes, you keep making the trips abroad, but when they get sent here, they get packaged in the United States.
And then you can say, hey, look, we are doing chip producing. Put that in air quotes in the United States. And then you can say, hey, look, we are doing chip
producing, I'll put that in air quotes, in the United States. Happy Trump administration. And
Trump administration will say, yes, this is, we can market this. And that's what I think is going
to continue to happen. So that's the thesis behind HempCorp. But everything in my portfolio right now
is around U.S. reshoring. Everything. Every stock I talk about to you guys all day is all around this theme.
I believe it will happen, and I believe it is happening in front of our eyes.
I believe there's a lot of money to be made.
Because keep in mind, we are the wealthiest country on Earth
with the most consumer power on Earth by far.
Make up almost a third of all consumer spending globally in one nation.
And on top of it all, we are the most innovative and most technologically advanced country on earth by a magnitude.
When you have that combination, you can make things happen quickly.
We have the money to do it. We have the people to do it.
We have the talent to do it. We have the infrastructure to do it.
it. Very few countries outside of us do. Maybe China, that's it. And China, it doesn't have
Very few countries outside of us do.
Maybe China. That's it.
the consumer spending power or the private capital infrastructure to do many of these things either.
The way you can raise money in the United States is unparalleled. The VC industry in the United
States is bigger than the global VC industry. And if you look at US markets, equity markets, they trump global equity markets. We have
a $60 trillion equity market. Nothing is even close. Why do Chinese stocks trade at depressed
valuations versus their U.S. peers? Why are U.S. peers trading at 5x, 10x multiples of their
Chinese peers? Because this is America. That's why. Because no one has the blend of utility and infrastructure and talent that we
have. No one, not even close. And when America wants things to happen, they happen. That's how
the world has worked for the better part of the last 60 years. If America, if American industry
wants something, it will happen and it becomes a global trend almost overnight. We did it with AI, we did
it with the cell phone, we did it with the internet. These are American things. People forget.
These are American things. These were born in America. The biggest technological themes of
our generation were born in this country by Americans. And that gives us a unique advantage to spawn, literally spawn industries in the snap
of a finger. And so people, I think, are underestimating the amount of money that will
flow in the next 10 years to make these things happen, to make nuclear happen, to make semiconductor
reshoring happen, to make all of the supply chain infrastructure for real manufacturing happen, to make semiconductor reshoring happen, to make all of the supply chain infrastructure
for real manufacturing happen, to make all of these industries that have become red hot,
aerospace and defense, specialized aerospace and defense, next gen technologies, drones,
all the things we need, they will happen. I have full faith. What am I betting on by saying that?
I'm betting on the United States to do these things? The country that has led the world in every innovative property since World War Two.
Right. I'm betting on them to do it again. It's not a hard bet.
You know, just make sure wherever you're betting that you understand what you're betting for or against in this climate.
that you understand what you're betting for or against in this climate.
And if I'm right, trillions of dollars in capital will flow into these industries in the next decade.
Trillions, with a T, not billions.
And what can happen for the market capitalizations of some of the smid cap companies that are involved in these themes is unfathomable, in my opinion.
And that's why I'm positioned in those names.
And that's why I'm so theme focused.
But believe who you want to believe. is unfathomable in my opinion. And that's why I'm positioned in those names. And that's why I'm so theme focused.
But believe what you want to believe.
Don't buy my conviction.
Do your own work.
But I am bullish on American industry because there's a renewed focus to build it back.
And I just don't see America losing at that game.
Like when we want to do it, we're going to do it. build it back. I just don't see America losing at that game.
When we want to do it, we're going to do it.
All right.
USA.
USA.
Is that what I'm supposed to do coming out of this?
I don't know.
That wasn't even like... It was a part of it.
Let's see the second part of the question.
Our second different question we got.
This is also Just Data.
Nike saw a 33% drop in net income
against 35% average tariff taxes paid.
How do you value a company where net income falls
by the full value of the tariff
tax? I don't know if that's a full...
Repeat the first part of that.
He said Nike saw a 33% drop in net income
and he's saying the average tariff
paid was 35%.
So what he's kind of saying
is their net income dropped
by about the same amount
as their tariffs.
I didn't know that, but that's...
And Nike stock was up on that?
I'm sure the market was expecting more.
Nike stock did have a pretty good day today.
What was it?
How much was it?
6%, 7%.
So they were guiding towards $11 billion,
where the market was expecting $11 billion of revenue.
That would have been a year-over-year decrease.
They reported 11.6 or whatever,
which came out at a year-over- they reported 11.6 or whatever which came
out at a year over your increase uh kind of says i don't want to comment too much on that because i
i'm assuming the person who commented i'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and say you
did your work so i'm gonna assume what you said is true but if that is true that's only an accelerant
to what i'm saying right or what i was just saying earlier which is this like the pressure that the
administration is putting on these companies to reshore. And look, I don't agree with it in apparel.
I'll be clear.
I don't want apparel manufacturing back in this country.
I know there's some people that do.
I would love to hear the arguments for why, but I don't.
That's not an industry you want back in this country.
If you want better jobs for American people, high-paying jobs,
you don't want apparel back here.
So I'm in favor of shipbuilding.
I'm in favor of semiconductors.
I'm in favor of aerospace and defense broadly.
I'm in favor of nuclear.
I'm in favor of reshoring all these things.
I'm not in favor of reshoring apparel or toys or any of those things.
So you have to kind of decide, you know, Nike is now in a position to
do that. If there's an alternative here, if the Trump administration will accept an alternative
when it comes to these less strategically important industries. And I think the exception
to that, I think a lot of people misconceive what a strategically important industry, I think the one
exception to that that isn't immediately obvious is automobiles. You know, when I mentioned this point many months ago about which tariffs I was in favor of and which ones I
wasn't, a lot of people retorted me and said, well, what about the automobile tariffs? Those
aren't strategically important. Why are you in favor of those? And I said, well, yes, they are
strategically important because in wartime, those factories will be important if there is a wartime
and when, I shouldn't say if, when there is wartime, because it will come. Those will be important if there is a wartime and when I shouldn't say if when there is wartime, because it will come. Those will be important. So yes, automobiles are actually nationally
strategically important. And if you look through history, there's a pretty colored history of
countries protecting their automobile industry. For people that are not literate on this topic,
I encourage you go look up Brazil auto industry tariffs and read about it and read about
the brazilian auto industry do the same thing with india type in india auto tariffs read about the
history and you'll learn a lot on this topic i don't even have to rant about it you guys can
look up a wikipedia article and learn a lot in about 10 minutes by just reading both brazil
and india's auto tariff history but countries for a long time have felt this way about the automotive industry, that it is in the background a, I should say, backup generator, if you will, for military
industrial power to have car factories in the nation. And this has been a very modernly held
belief and a lot of countries have practiced it. Now, you could say the United States is big and
wealthy enough now that we don't need that anymore.
Sure, you can make that argument.
And if you really want to make the argument that you had to pick a handful of industries, I wouldn't put cars in the top three or four.
You know, I'd much more prioritize semiconductors and shipbuilding and broader aerospace and defense and nuclear and drones, especially all of those things above that.
But you could make the argument is what I'm saying. There are some industries, though, where you can't make the argument, like apparel and toys. You can't make
the argument. I don't think so, that they're national security interests. And so I don't feel
the need to pressure nations like Cambodia and Malaysia on apparel or on toys. But on the other
hand, I do feel the need to pressure nations like Taiwan on semiconductors, because we do need that
in America. There's too much risk. If Taiwan is compromised or taken or embargoed, we are screwed. And so, yes, we do need to pressure
Taiwan. And so that policy I am in favor of. So I have a nuanced view. I'm not one of those people
that's a blanket view guy. You guys know this. I'm not like blanket in favor of tariffs, blanket
against tariffs. But I have a nuanced view. I am in
favor of them with strategically important industries, and I am not in favor of them
with meaningless merchandise industries. Like shoes.
I do see we got a couple more friends joining us up here. We got an Adam Patti. How you doing, Adam?
We've got a couple more friends joining us up here.
We've got an Adam Paddy.
How are you doing, Adam?
I'm doing great, guys.
Hope you guys are enjoying your day.
It was a perfect timing.
We were talking earlier.
Stock Talk was naming his goats and wanting his lynch.
And then he was brought up number two as Stanley Druckenmiller.
I was like, wow, that's a very pertinent timing here we had on that one so uh we're already set but but yeah i appreciate you joining us i also
know gov's up here and stuff and we'll get started in a second but she had a weird text how you doing
gov i am good hopefully my sounds okay my wi-fi is resetting right now but uh i'm on the sounds
like you're whispering a little on the sounds like you're whispering
a little bit it sounds like you're like out in the hallway like by the thing there's a lot of
people around you so you have to be quiet no i'm i'm in a quiet office so yeah it's just my service
but yeah you can leave for now i'll reset it cool you are good there i didn't know if you uh were
even guys ready to even talk about the the drunken milliller ETF, and we can give a little bit more context around this.
I'll get the tweet pinned up in the nest above.
But Adam, is there anything you want to just talk about?
Is there anything that's really standing out for you in this market?
Obviously, we have, for anyone who doesn't know, Adam Patti,
the CEO over at VistaShares.
VistaShares is creating a bunch of different types of products.
We have OMAH,
which is an ETF that takes Berkshire Hathaway's 15 largest holdings and Berkshire Hathaway itself,
and then does a covered call strategy on them to get you a 15% annual income. And we brought that across to Ackman's largest holdings. And there was a, I saw it on the website. I'm sure there
must've been a filing out. And then we also have a couple of other ones omah is the one that really i am excited about but um yeah what's going on in your world
before i prompt some stuff yeah different directions i'd love to talk about it all but
one thing i got to bring up i mean i am blown away we've talked about our etf wild the wild
you know we launched it on june 4th and it's up over 80% so far since June.
We rotate, you know, to the five stocks that have the most investor interest based on investor inflows on a monthly basis.
So on Monday, we rebalanced into CoreWeave, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Palantir, and NVIDIA, up around 15%, 16%
just since Monday. I mean, I'm blown away. The incoming interest now, finally,
has been really astounding. So I'm psyched. I think this product's going to just take off.
It's a killer. There we go. All right. So explain this a little bit more to me. I know we've talked
about it in the past, but maybe people were less, I don't know,
whatever.
But while it is taking 2X-ing five separate single stocks in here, we are picking them
from the, it's a combination of the most popular 2X.
So it takes the world of 2X single stock ETFs.
We're taking the ones that are the most popular, and we're also putting a
weighting of the ones that are growing the most in assets. And then we are putting that into a
basket, ranking it, and then taking the top five on there. We're not buying the 2X single stock
ETFs themselves. We're getting our own versions of leverage, but it's 2X on those five single
names. We're rebalancing monthly. What do we got to correct in what I said there? What can you
clarify? No, you nailed it. You nailed it. I mean, look, the animal spirits is a theory in investing that
it's about investor behavior and psychology. And the way you quantify that is by looking at where
investors are putting their money. So to your point, we look at the universe of 2X levered
ETFs. We look at the ones that, as you said, are the most
popular in terms of the most assets. Then we look at the ones that are growing the fastest in terms
of asset growth. We have a proprietary scoring system. It's systematic. And every month we're
scoring them and we're picking the top five. And it's been, I mean, it's been a stellar performer
since we launched it. But last month, IonQ was in there and we picked up that whole trade.
And now we hit CoreWeave on Monday.
So I'm really thrilled.
I mean, it's actually the methodology.
No surprise works because, again, it's all about following the money, right?
I mean, if you're an individual investor trying to choose a 2x levered ETF, you might have the stock right, you might have the day wrong and get your face ripped
off. But when you have five that investors as a whole are really excited about, typically,
you're going to get a few of them right. And at least that's the way it's bearing out. So
up over 80% since June. Very nice. I'm curious. And what's the
thing that's getting the people over overboard? Because I know you've been excited about this
one for a while. And I know it's been performing super well. So I did see the core weave headline.
Maybe it just took a little data center AI map. I don't know. I don't know. I was like,
you never know what's going to happen with the market. Yeah. I just think it's, look, I mean, it's, you know, it's very
simple to understand what a 2X levered Tesla ETF is. It's a little more complicated to understand
what wild is because we have five stocks and it's a systematic methodology that rotates monthly. So
I think people just want to see it, see how it performed and, you know, and then, you know,
hopefully come on in when their time
is right so um you know hopefully that time is now i mean our trading volume has is still you know
lower than like an omaha or or one of our other products but um it's you know gone up four or five
x over the last few weeks so let's let's talk a little bit there about uh omh omaha i know uh we're uh amp is we're in
football season so we're gonna hear less uh more of that going forward omaha there we go um that's
obviously been the been the the big winner at least from a you know from a back end people
getting interested in it it's been performing very well too. Um, pretty decent, but, um, yeah, we, we had
the Aki one that seems to be an area. There's a lot of interesting, I was doing a little peruse
on the website and I saw there was a new ETF in there that it's not going to be coming until next
week. So I don't want to go too deep into it. We'll get our time, but we're extending that Omaha family, the Target 15 family to another person.
Yeah.
I mean, the investors are speaking, right?
They love the OMAH.
I mean, that one's about to hit $600 million, actually.
It's been six months since we launched it.
So that's been exceedingly successful.
So we brought out our Ackman version, which is invest like Bill Ackman, but with 15% income paid monthly.
So we pay out 1.25%, same as OMAH.
So all of our target 15s are based on hitting a 15% target on an annual basis on income generation, which we pay out monthly.
So Ackie, we launched almost two and a half weeks ago.
So it actually just exploded out of the gate.
I mean, we were doing several hundred thousand shares a day right out of the gate, over 31 million already in assets.
So, you know, after two and a half weeks, that was the most successful product launch I've ever been involved with.
product launch I've ever been involved with.
And I've been in this industry for many years.
And I've been in this industry for many years.
But so, you know, we did our research and we polled a bunch of investors, retail and
family offices and RIAs.
I said, we said, who do you want next?
And, you know, Druckenmiller, of course, is, you know, a legend, absolute legend.
So, you know, next Wednesday, we launched DRKY, which is invest like Stanley Druckenmiller, but with 15% income, you know, paid monthly.
I love it. I love this suite. I think I see it's very clear.
It's one of those ones that I'm sitting there thinking, why didn't I think of that?
So it's a good one. I think this is going to go well.
I'm curious how you're feeling going into this
do you think it's going to be similar
to like obviously the Ackman
launch it's the best one you've been a part of
so we don't want to set the bar too high
but maybe we just haven't set the bar high enough yet
I'm curious how you're feeling going
I think Ackman
ex-Fintwit and maybe this extends
the financial community as well they do love talking
about him I don't know if people think of him as the greatest investor.
Stock Talk earlier gave his list of people,
and Druckenmiller was on it.
I don't know.
I definitely know this will.
I wonder if it's so slightly...
He's on my big three.
Mount Rushmore has four.
Who's the fourth?
I like doing big three because I feel like once you go four,
then you've got to go five
at what point are we on a slippery slope
yeah i mean or you just go crazy you know but so for me it's like
i gotta do big three but for me it's yeah it's it's uh lynch truck and miller and buffett
but uh yeah i was excited when evan told me that this was uh the next one you guys were dropping
because uh i'm a big big fan of truck and miller yeah me too i'm just for a long time and then talk about you
know the wise men of investing right i mean obviously buffett drunkenmiller is right you
know is right there and it's interesting his portfolio is very different than anything else
you know if you look at his holdings i don't have the final holding list but you know i have the
list from a couple weeks ago and you know a lot of pharmaceuticals. He does have names like Taiwan Semiconductor in there, but
a lot of names that most people just simply probably don't own, which is very interesting.
So it's going to be a great compliment. And what we're trying to do is create products that
don't cannibalize each other. So Ack, you know, Ackman's an activist investor.
Druckenmiller is more of a global macro investor.
You know, Omaha or Buffett is more of a value-oriented investor.
So these are products that you can all use together
in a well-diversified portfolio.
And, you know, they should have a very different pattern of performance
in different market conditions, which is what we're going for.
Oh, don't get it. Okay, so so coming soon once we get five or six we're doing an etf of the etfs
and it's probably gonna do so well i'm telling you it's gonna work it's it's gonna work i love it i
love it all right so let's let's talk a little bit more about this one so obviously this is one
that's going to launch next week you can see see it, talk about more in the future,
but we're kind of basing it off of OMAH and ACKY.
So how does this work a little bit?
We're buying for OMAH, it's the top 15 holdings from the 13F,
also buying Berkshire Hathaway
and doing this covered call strategy on it,
targeting for that 1.25% a month.
Now, I think that may be the little different thing here. And my question is on
Druckenmiller's portfolio is there's a lot more names. So is it like the top 10, top 15,
top 20? How is that ending up working? Or how at least are you thinking about this?
Or also how have some of the old ones been structured?
Yeah, so we're going, well, yeah,
OMAH is Berkshire Hathaway B
plus the top 20 public holdings.
Ooh, so I was wrong, sorry.
No, it's okay, Berkshire Hathaway.
So it's 21 equity holdings.
Ackman has a much more concentrated portfolio.
So he's got the top 11 holdings. And with the
Druckenmiller DRKY, it's going to be the top 20. So top 20 equity holdings in his portfolio,
the ones where he has the most conviction. So we're not going after tiny little positions that
he might have just thrown into his portfolio or he's watching them. We're going for the, you know, the higher conviction picks in his portfolio.
And so it's top 20. We it's a we use 13 F's to identify what are his highest conviction picks and where his holdings lay.
And, you know, the good thing about 13 F's is or at least with somebody like Druckenmiller or an Ackman or, of course, a Buffett, is that, you know, they tend to invest in companies where they do have high conviction and they have longer holding periods.
Now, they do make lots of trades over the year, but they're not in and out of big positions constantly. So this is why we chose who we chose to try to emulate,
because it just serves well in an ETF structure.
So every quarter, we're looking at the 13Fs
to see what kind of changes have been made.
So on average, if there was changes made,
we may have a 45-day lag, right?
So it's a quarter, and if the average
position was swapped out halfway through the quarter, we could have a 45-day lag.
But the good thing is that we're an active ETF. So if we get wind of changes being made
intracarter, or we see SEC filings or things like that, we can actually move in and out of positions during the quarter as well,
which is important. So we can stay very nimble, which is good to know. But frankly, the 45-day
lag is meaningless with these types of positions because these holding periods are oftentimes in
the years or measured in the years. So you're not going to see wholesale changes in the portfolio every quarter.
And then we run an options overlay, just like we do with OMAH and ACKY. We're selling out of the
money calls. And our goal is to hit 1.25% per month, not more, not less. We want to hit 1.25
because we're trying to give investors kind of a stable or stability in their income stream where they know exactly what they're getting or should be getting.
And hopefully we're delivering that on a monthly basis.
So the equity portfolio is fully transparent, just like all of our other products.
You know exactly why companies are in there based on the rules that we publish right on our website.
And then we have the active overlay to stay nimble. And then, of course, the active data driven options overlay on top rules that we publish right on our website and then we have the active overlay to stay nimble
and then of course the active data-driven options overlay on top of that we just paid out um um our
our income for september on tuesday uh for uh omah qusa as well as acky um and you know, of course, right at the 1.25% for each product.
Yeah, that is a good rundown there.
I appreciate you, Adam.
Gov, do we have you back in the power going?
How's my sound quality?
It was good before.
It was pretty decent.
All right, we'll roll with it.
Yeah, Adam, I'm excited for this to come out. I think that this
has been an interesting area that you're focusing in on taking these. So many people want to invest
like a politician now, invest like a fund manager. I'm curious, why do you think that nobody really
created, I mean, you have Berkshire, but nobody really had ETFs necessarily around these areas
beforehand. What was your guys' thought process with doing the research and bringing these to
market? I just would love to hear from it. Well, my whole background is developing institutional
class investment strategies and packaging them in an ETF structure. That's my background. I've
been doing it for years. My last company, which I built back in 06 and sold it in 2015,
we focused on hedge fund replication. So I've always been kind of interested in the overall
hedge fund space. We replicated using a been kind of interested in the overall hedge fund space.
We replicated using a factor-based quantitative approach, very different than what we're doing here. So what we were trying to do is, first of all, with VistaShares, we're never going to bring
out a product that's a me-too product. We're not bringing out something that somebody else has done
or it's got to be completely different in the white space and it has to have a very clear use case.
So we go into every conversation about product development with that mindset.
So, you know, just taking looking back on my my old background in hedge funds, I said, well, wait a minute.
You know, who are the best institutional investors out there?
I mean, there's a handful of them. Right. So and, you know, clearly Druckenmiller and Ackman and Buffett are there.
a handful of them, right? So, and, you know, clearly Druckenmiller and Ackman and Buffett are
there. So, you know, is there a way to, you know, efficiently package their holdings in a transparent,
tax-efficient way that, of course, has much lower fees than if you were to invest in a hedge fund
directly? So that's kind of where it started. Then it was all a function of doing the research
around different types of investor strategies and the types of portfolios they focus on to make sure that we're picking those investors with longer term, high conviction, more concentrated positions.
Because we're not again, we don't want to be in and out of positions every week, every day.
That's just not what we do. And frankly, it's not tax efficient for investors um in the etf structure so um that's
what that was kind of the the mindset there and you know of course you never know how it's going
to work but you know we we had you know from you know fortunately had some success and um now we're
going to lean into it and bring out a you know addition additional uh strategies that complement each other for investors.
I like that. It's never going to be a copycat of Me Too strategy. It's getting there first.
That makes sense to me. I think Evan's idea of that fund-to-funds idea is pretty interesting
as well here as it's going to continue to go. One thing that we haven't really talked about
is what really makes it stand out because people can go look at the portfolios with the different pieces, but what's
made it unique and probably what's attracted so many people to OMAH is the option overlay.
And that's something that I don't think we've touched too deep on just yet. And you guys have
been really consistent and there's just been such a retail attraction to this income. And, you know, you're not shooting for the moon.
You're aiming for 15% a year, option overlay on top in income.
Can you talk a little bit about that and why you think that that combination of, you know,
fund manager plus income overlay has really attracted to the masses?
Yeah, that's a great point.
So, yeah, look, income has become a much more important attribute for investing,
not only for retirees who are looking for stable income, but frankly, for the average retail
investor. I'm on X all day long interacting with people. And it's incredible to me how
sophisticated today's investors are, much more than I was when I was in my 20s. I can tell you that
they have very specific goals. They are looking to stack income. They're looking for consistency.
They're not looking to shoot the moon, or at least not for a large portion of their portfolio.
They're looking to build wealth over time. And of course, these income strategies are designed for
that. So then it was really a function of, all right, well, where do you sit in the continuum of kind of low to high income? You know, you can
go for the type of strategies that are paying out 100% a year. That's one strategy. Or you can go
for the lower type income strategies, you know, in the kind of 6% to 8% range. So we did our
research and we determined that 15% was almost, you know, kind of like the sweet spot.
It was, you know, high enough where it differentiated us from the other similar type products in the market, you know, based on the S&P 500 or the Qs.
But it wasn't high enough where we're going to run into Nav erosion issues, because that's a big problem with some of the, you know, much higher income strategies out there. We don't want to deal with that because while our number one goal is to hit our 15% per year, our secondary goal is to have capital appreciation. So we want you to have both and 15% gets you there. Of course, in different ways,
depending on what the underlying holdings are. So that was, you know, what we're, we were focused
on and you know, it seems to be resonating with people so
you know again we'll lean into this and um we have a slew of other types of strategies you know that
will come in you know down the road uh at different income levels you know that fill different parts
of your portfolio that's great yeah i appreciate the combination and i think it's important with
how you outlined
it with the goal right 1.25 per month stay consistent with that build that in on top
and have strong solid appreciation of the actual etf as well so kind of best of both worlds
makes sense to me i'm just curious what do you think about you know launching these etfs during
this unique time period of you know government shutdown and raging bull market and tech flying.
Just curious, what do you think about it?
Yeah, well, we live in interesting times for sure.
And look, you never know when the right timing is.
I launched my first hedge fund-like product about two weeks before the financial crisis in 08.
So it was the worst time to launch a product. And then
looking back, it was the best time, best time because our, you know, strategy was shown how
it would hold up in the worst possible market conditions. So, you know, you never know, right?
I mean, having an income strategy is very good for volatile markets because it gives people a
little sense of calm in their portfolio or a little ballast in their portfolio to help with the downside, perhaps. But look, I mean, look at Berkshire
Hathaway, right? Berkshire Hathaway has not performed well since, really, since the tariff
tantrums, right? It came out of the gate in 2025, booming. It was doing really well. And then kind
of the tariff tantrums happened. And ever since then, it hasn't performed
that well, which, you know, if you look historically, Berkshire Hathaway, when it doesn't
perform well, at some point, it's a coiled spring, and it's going to come back to where it typically
is. So, so you look at OMAH, and people say, well, you know, it's, you know, how's it performing?
Well, it's performing better than Berkshire Hathaway. You know, but, you know, we'll see how it goes over time.
So, you know, one thing to keep in mind with all of these income strategies is that you need to look at the total return, not just the price return.
Because, of course, there's no free lunch. Right.
So if you're paying out 15 percent per year, that 15 percent is coming from somewhere.
per year, that 15% is coming from somewhere and the options overlay will typically depress
overall capital appreciation in a raging bull market, which is important to note. So when
investors say, well, what can I expect? I usually say expect 75% of the upside and call it 85% of
the downside. That's kind of your range of outcomes if you compare the product to the exact
same portfolio without the options income overlay. So that's kind of important to note. So
in a raging bull market, income strategies, no matter whose they are, are never going to keep up,
particularly when they're tech-driven, like we've been experiencing for years. But
certainly since the tariff tantrums back in March, April, mega cap tech has been
the leaders.
And how long does that go?
I'm not sure.
But we'll see who takes the leadership in terms of sectors after that.
Stock Talk, would love to turn over to you, maybe hear any thoughts you have here.
I would love to turn it over to you, maybe hear any thoughts you have here.
On Druckenmiller in general or the strategy in general?
I think both, a combination, Druckenmiller as well as the team.
Yeah, I think these things are great.
I mean, I'm always impressed with you guys, Adam,
on how specific you guys are with these exposures.
Because, I mean, look, if you're an investor and you want exposure to Drucken Miller's book,
you could read Evan's tweet every quarter and then go scramble to try to buy
the top positions and fit them into your portfolio.
Or you could just be like,
look,
I want a more concentrated exposure to Druck.
I just want his top holdings.
I don't want all his old book.
You know,
he's a pretty wide book and there's other people that even have even wider books and are even harder to follow but
there's only so many ways you can do that you know and one of these things what the sort of
celebrity investing following thing kind of reminds me of is this kind of trend that's
emerged these last couple of years in following politicians which we've seen kind of trend that's emerged these last couple of years in following politicians, which we've seen kind of all over Twitter and stuff. And there's so many groups now that do it. But
it's similar to that, right? Like, and people have done very well doing that, by the way.
You know, people like, even though it's delayed, even though the filings are delayed, right? Even
though the positions are delayed, you still get general. I mean, yeah, you might miss a couple
positions or have something that they ended up
selling or whatever but you still get a general exposure to the thing you're trying to get
exposure to and in this way you get a more top heavy heavy look at that so i think it makes sense
for people who want exposure to these investors i think it makes sense so um yeah i think i think
it's well designed for the purpose that it's trying to suit.
And when it comes to Druckenmiller in general, I mean, he's a superstar.
You can't say much more about him.
Evan asked me about him earlier when we were doing the regular space.
And, you know, I had a lot to say.
But essentially, Druckenmiller is just one of those guys that I consider sort of a jack of all trades, where he's not afraid to be involved in stuff that maybe he's not an expert on.
But he's not afraid to become an expert on stuff quickly or become half an expert, I should say, on stuff quickly and position himself and stuff.
And I like that. I like that he has an opinion on most things. You know, I I think it's a sign of like a seasoned investor and somebody who's been through a lot of markets and seen a lot of industries come and go.
And he's one of those guys. And there's very few of those guys on the street that have performed so consistently.
So, yeah, Druckenmiller is a star and he's definitely somebody worth following.
He's, you know, like I said, in my, in my top three greatest of all time, in my opinion, everyone's list is different, but in my opinion,
he's behind Lynch in that list. So yeah, he's terrific. I have nothing bad to say about
Druckenmiller. I wish I could give him, I wish I could even give him more nuanced opinion. I just
have nothing bad to say. I agree. And look, I mean, I think to your point, you know, what I
talk to investors, cause I'm talking to investors all day long, is, you know, most investors don't really realize that about 35% of their exposure in the S&P 500 is in the top 10 names. And about 45% of that exposure in the Qs is in the almost the same exact 10 names. So when investors are buying these broad indexes as core of their
portfolio, they don't necessarily realize there's significant over-concentration risk
in their portfolios. And again, these are all mega cap tech, right? It's the same company. So
they've been doing great for years. They'll hopefully continue to do great for many years,
but the reality is that you got 40% of your exposure in the same
company. So what I've been trying to tell people is like, look, you don't sell your S&P 500 or
to Q's. Don't get out of that. But maybe it's time to carve off a little bit, carve off and put
into something that diversifies your portfolio into some names that you probably aren't over
concentrated in or don't have much exposure to. know um and that's what we're trying to help
right with right now whether it's the omah whether it's acky or any of our or of course this one is
you know get access to names you don't have a lot of exposure to um and you know and why not take
the 15 a year at the same time to have that exposure
Ryan, do you have any thoughts or Sam that you wanted to jump in with?
Yeah, I'm excited for this one.
I love the idea of the fund of funds here,
where just the Mount Rushmore fund of funds,
where we just put all of these into one.
I think that's a cool idea.
My question is going to be, I mean, I like Drunken Miller.
So I looked through his holding several things that I'm a big fan of.
Mercado Libre, Nubank, Roku, some of these other things that I've had in my portfolio
and still hold a lot of those.
But I want to ask about Wild because it's the first time we've had Adam on since the changeover of the month.
The five names on here.
I just, I would love to, while I have Adam on here, I've got to ask about Wild, which made a new all-time high today.
It was up almost 6% today, I think I saw.
And I mean, up 80% since inception back in June when we first got to hear about it and see it launched here on this space, I believe.
So Adam, I would love to hear what went into,
I know you've talked about the selection process and stuff,
but just any thoughts you have around CoreWeave,
Coinbase, Strategy, Palantir, and NVIDIA
making the cut for this month?
Yeah, I mean, these again, you know,
based on the methodology is where
we ended up but i i think the key takeaway is is what we've seen with this product and again no
surprise right i i didn't make up animal spirits as an investment philosophy right that's a 50 year
old 60 year old uh investment philosophy but you know behavioral finance it you know dictates stock
movements or stock price movements, right?
I mean, that has just been proven time and time again.
And particularly in these markets today, narrative-driven stocks, you know, they're driven by those narratives, right?
So investors as a group, when they are feeling good or bad about a certain stock, you know, tend to go into more of a herd type mentality and gravitate
toward the same names and in doing that, you know, impact stock prices, right? That and also they seem
as a group, they tend to be more right than any individual investor on their own. So, you know,
what we're seeing is that as investors are pouring money into individual names, there seems to be,
and we're doing some research on this now because I want to quantify this and hopefully we can nail
it over the next couple of months. But the names that have the most investor inflows tend to
perform really well for 30 to 60 days and then tend to fall off and are replaced by a new set of names, just as the
narratives changes around those names.
So it's a very interesting phenomenon that we're seeing.
And, you know, our approach to wild kind of tries to capture that.
So and it's certainly been bearing out.
Now, of course, as the market crashes, you know, I don't think anything's going to do
well.
So I want to always, you know, be cautious when I talk to investors. You know, this doesn't go up forever. It goes up when two or three of our core holdings out of the five are doing very well.
Will it always be month to month? Is there any thought of, I mean, I guess every month you could,
you could leave, but in theory, you could leave some in there. You don't have to rotate them
every month, right? If somebody makes the cut multiple months in a row, you leave them in there.
And then part two of that question, is there any thought of like moving that down to a few weeks?
Is the month the sweet spot in your opinion?
I'm just curious on the timing of going from the beginning of the month
to the end of the month.
Well, we're trying to avoid head fakes,
which is why we said it when we did the research to develop the methodology.
The month seemed to actually provide the best,
the smoothest results over time.
So this is an active etf so
while the core of the portfolio is rules based and our our rule book is right on the website you can
see exactly why certain companies are coming in or out we think that's important um we do have an
investment committee that reviews the holdings daily so So we could make moves, you know, in intramonth as many times as we want,
though there's no reason to override the methodology
at this point for sure.
And in terms of your other question, yes,
I mean, we could have the same exact five next month
if the inflows support that.
So, you know, we've had NVIDIA in before,
we've had Palantir before,
we've had MicroStrategy in before. This month, all five swapped out from last month, but a couple of the other months,
we'd have one or two, and then we had three, you know, new components during that month.
And I know you guys, does Options, Options goes into this, right? If I, if I remember correctly,
but the options, the monthly options expiration, is that kind of the reasoning too? I would, that,
that was putting that together in my head. I was thinking, okay, well, at least you get up like a
monthly options expiration. You can kind of see positions rolled and stuff. Cause that normally
happens about the third end of the third week of each month. So I didn't know if that went into part of the overall picture of this methodology. As an interest point, yes, but not as part of
the methodology. The methodology is completely focused on the inflows. Investors are looking
at Palantir and they're leading with their wallets and investing a lot in Palantir, that's going
to be noted in our scoring system.
Either Palantir, for instance, is either going to be one of the largest recipients of AUM
or they're going to be one of the fastest growing recipients of AUM.
So it's really all about where them follow the money.
And it's as simple as I could say.
We just follow the investor flows and then we score them based on where those flows are going.
And then we rotate monthly.
And then, of course, we lever it up, you know, 2x.
All right.
Last piece.
Two crypto names this month.
Are we bullish on crypto over there?
Maybe your thoughts on that. I know there's a stock market news up here that has recently got more interested in some of this crypto stuff.
He's pretty bullish right now.
I'm just curious.
We just got a 2x BMNR ETF launch for the first time.
How long after they first get a 2x ETF can we get added?
Does it start to get added into your data?
It has to be.
Well, no, actually, there's no time frame.
There is it's all based on the flows.
So if that if that product just takes off and has massive, massive inflows, it wouldn't make it wouldn't make the scoring system based on the size because the side, the biggest ones are Tesla and NVIDIA and ones like that.
But it could make based on flows.
So on the absolute dollar flows.
We're very bullish on crypto.
Generally, I am.
And I think we saw that pullback for temporary pullback.
And of course, you saw Ethereum pop back about 4,000.
So I think I'm very, very bullish on crypto. And clearly, investors are
based on the holdings in Wild as well. Definitely bullish on Micron. That thing has been running
nonstop. Sam, I was going to you any comments. Yeah, I think Gab lost
some internet there.
I was looking at AIS. And I mean, you guys got it's amazing how
high bandwidth memory has just been one of the topics in your
ETF. And I mean, I think a market's starting to see how
important is, you know, that all the data center news about expanding to third party scalers, you know, like the miners turning into data centers.
You see those running as well.
But if you're buying these chips hand over fist, then the demand is going to go up.
And that means the materials that are used to create the chips or build the chips themselves are going to be pumping more in
Micron, right? So Micron is the US supplier for high bandwidth memory. And then if you
have this news that Intel is going to start being the foundry for companies like, or the
primary foundry for AMD, and hopefully we'll see Nvidia, that means there's going to be
a lot more on-shoring. And in order to, you know, it's only a matter of time
until Trump starts turning to high bandwidth memory manufacturers.
And out of the three, out of the big three that are there,
SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron,
even though Micron doesn't build all their components in the U.S.,
you know, if they turn to them and they say, hey, you need to start building the U.S., well, I mean, it's just it's a matter of time until he starts doing that.
Yeah, I agree.
Micron's an incredible company.
And in AIS, you know, we've talked about it many, many times.
That's our AI infrastructure ETF.
The thing's a killer.
It's up 50 percent year to date.
Micron's our top holding now at about 5.2%.
But again, no surprise that it's performed well
because we're focused on the picks and shovels
to your point, right?
You know, we're not looking for, you know,
consumer facing applications that may or may not do well.
We're going where the money is.
Again, similar to wild, follow the money.
So when Meta says they're going to invest $100 billion
in data centers and semiconductors, where are those dollars going?
That's who we're buying into the AIS portfolio, the supply chain.
And it's a very different approach.
It's the only, you know, we're the only ones that I'm aware of doing it in the U.S. market.
So we have a bill of materials process that we file the patent on.
Fully rules-based portfolio, portfolio again right on our website.
But we have our investment committee made up of John McNeil, the former president of Tesla, Sonny Madra, the president of Grok.
These guys know AI better than or as well as anyone in the world.
And, you know, they are the ones that are guiding this portfolio.
Yes, when you said Meta $100 billion.
I think Mark Zuckerberg said they might misinvest by a couple hundred billion dollars.
So I think that was the range, the up or down out of the $600 to $800 billion.
But yeah, no, it's not stopping.
Yeah, I agree.
I think we're just in the early innings, and it's going to be many years because, frankly,
Meta and Microsoft, they need that compute to develop applications that add enough value
to their consumers where they can make money.
But the only way they get there is to get the compute, which means they need the data
center's more powerful chips.
For sure.
And, you know, it's actually interesting, switching back to wild.
It's actually interesting you're talking about, you know, how you're bullish crypto.
And you mentioned this small pullback we had, which I think I was expecting crypto to at
least visit 104K.
I think we got as low as 108K in Ethereum.
It's below 4,000 for a a minute but it would be it would
be quite interesting to see bm and r in there i forgot what was the the there was a criteria that
you had on there with wilds of what actually gets put in there and i don't think bmr would be a
candidate right well it's got to grow enough because it's not one of the largest single stock
ets out there so basically we look at what are the largest names that are subject to single stock ETFs, Levered ETFs.
So that's 40% of our methodology and then 60% on the growth side.
So if that one happens to grow tremendously over the next few weeks, it could make it in.
But you would have to grow a lot.
You'd have to make it in that 60% bucket. And how often do you rebalance, Wild?
Monthly. We rotate the holdings monthly. So we just rotate it on Monday. So it'll be another month. I'm suspecting Meta is going to get back in there. I know that was on there. I think it was
the last round or the round before that. I forget.
But I'm suspecting Meta is going
to be back on there. Maybe Meta and Amazon.
Those are my two guesses. Those have been
somewhat lagging the last couple
of weeks. Prices pulled back.
Those were the fastest. Meta was one of the
fastest running ones since the April
bottom. But we'll see. We'll see.
I mean, things have been pretty quiet on the front as far as the mega caps go because we
got the earnings coming up.
But that, I mean, looking at what it's pointing at right now, you know, NVIDIA, well, NVIDIA
isn't actually going to report in time during the monthly balance, but maybe Coinbase might.
What about HUD?
We'll see.
Has HUD been close to consideration, Adam?
Yes, it has.
You know, it just hasn't.
I'm surprised it hasn't.
I was expecting it to get in there.
But maybe next month.
We'll see.
Sorry, Sam.
I just had to ask that one.
How dare you?
No, it's all good.
It's all good. And finally, also, and you guys
already talked about the new ETF that's starting soon, Stan Drunken Miller. So it's pretty
interesting because some of Stan Drunken Miller's positions are in the form of options. And if I
recall, the 13Fs don't have to include options, right? So what other ways
would you guys be able to know if he's getting in an options position or not? Well, we can look at
the SEC filings and there are different data sets where you can monitor that, but a lot of that is
obscured, to your point. So, you know, we're keeping it simple and we're looking at the largest equity holdings.
But if we do get wind that some of the options holdings are, you know, large and transparent enough that we can see them, you know, we can act on that as an active ETF.
We were just talking about earlier of some of his top holdings that he has right now.
One of them was uh sports betting so we'll see what happens that's obviously a very big narrative right now
especially for hood with the sports contracts that you have but um i mean who knows uh what we might
see for um so i guess that would be the quarter that just ended right so we're gonna start getting
those 13 fs do we get them next?
I forget.
Do we get the 13 Fs next one?
It's like 45 days or so.
Okay.
So we're going to look at November.
Okay.
And the ETF starts this week or next week?
I forget which one.
Next Wednesday.
We launch on Wednesday.
Okay.
That'd be pretty interesting.
Yeah.
Sam, you stole my question.
I was going to ask when the official launch date was for everyone to watch out for that.
So next Wednesday, that's the 8th, right?
That is a week from today.
Big day.
I'm excited.
The Aki one is actually pretty interesting because the Nike had its earnings yesterday.
And that thing looks like it's coming out of a pretty big consolidation channel here.
It's basically been consolidating for the last couple of months.
And I looked at numbers for the earnings for Nike.
I mean, they're okay.
But the technicals on the chart, it bounced off the 20-day moving average,
broke the 20-day through the earnings, and then stopped right here at the 50-day.
So if this thing continues running, Bill Ackman is definitely going to be very happy about that one.
The only thing is that he has options on this one.
I forget, is that part of the Ackie ETF, Nike?
It is not.
Okay, yeah, I think it's because he has the...
That's where your question came in earlier,
because we saw that and we were like,
okay, that's interesting, it's options.
But I don't think he has any equity, though.
But that's a great question.
A great, great clarifying point. Adam, I had a question too here. I know we're about to wrap up.
Anybody else has anything, please jump in too. How difficult is it compared to, you know,
an Ackman that has like, I think 11 positions, I guess if you count both Googles or whatever,
versus somebody, you know, like Drunken Miller or Drunken
Miller that has, I don't even know how many total he has, like 50 or something like that,
isn't it?
Is that just a lot more work on your end?
Well, again, with Drunken Miller, we're going to focus on the top 20 because we don't want
to be too spread out.
Just like with Omaha, it's a top 20 plus brkb we want to have a
little more of a concentrated portfolio um so yeah the more the more holdings you have just means you
know the more options positions you need uh the more complexity you have and of course as etfs
grow you know money is coming in so you have to create new shares and then put on new options
positions. So, you know, for a fast growing ETF, you know, you look at Aki, for instance,
Aki, you know, only has 11 equity holdings. But we've got, well, let's say it says 35. Now we've
got 35 holdings in the portfolio now. So, you know, the others are option positions.
in the portfolio now. So, you know, the other, the others are option positions
to, to achieve the income, I should say options for the, the option strategy.
It does, it does make sense as well to think about like, okay, if they have tons of holdings,
I was going to ask that was the follow-up that I was going to ask was, okay, if there's,
you know, 25 positions or 30 positions, do you, like the weighting, like if you get down
and somebody it's like less than 2% or 1% of the portfolio, I was curious if you guys
were like, okay, we'll put that in there or let's, let's take the top 10 or let's take
everything that's weighted over maybe two and a half or something like that.
Did y'all have that kind of conversation as you were designing this?
Yes, exactly. So we don't want the smaller positions because typically there's just the ones with less conviction.
So we're looking for the larger scale holdings that have a longer tail in terms of time horizon.
And, you know, we came out in around the top 20. Now, we can go higher or lower than that.
20. Now, we can go higher or lower than that, but the 20 for DRKY is a good spot based on
the size of his positions at that level. Adam, really appreciate you coming on and
putting these things on everyone's radar. Of course, everyone can go to VistaShares.com,
check out all of the stuff for yourself, read the prospectus. Do all your due diligence, of course. Just want to put it on your radar. DRKY launching next Wednesday, October the 8th.
Evan, if you've got anything else, jump in. Sam, any last questions from you?
Feel free to jump in or forever hold your peace.
I appreciate you guys. Make sure you're following Adam and VistaShares as well.
Yeah, thank you guys.. Thank you, guys.
I really appreciate you guys.
I appreciate all your support and the support of all your listeners and viewers.
Without you guys, without the X community, we wouldn't be where we are today.
So I'm humbled and I very much appreciate it.
Adam, we appreciate you just as much.
You put things for us retail traders, our audience, a lot of retail traders and investors. You put things on our radar that are tools for people to succeed. So we appreciate you coming on, talking to us. Any last thoughts, words of wisdom? Do you want to tell Evan why BMNR is a bad investment? Just anything that you want to throw in here at the end.
a bad investment and just,
just anything that you want to throw in here at the end.
Yeah, no, I wouldn't do that. Not, not to him. So I would just say,
guys, just stay strong over the next few weeks. Let's see how the market,
you know,
how it reacts to all the craziness in the government right now and all the
shutdown noise and, you know,
just stay diversified and stick to your plan and don't panic sell.
Whatever you do.
Wise words from Adam Patty or over at VistaShares. Best September we just finished since 2010
and new all-time highs here on the first day of October. Adam, appreciate you. Appreciate Vista
Shares coming on. Sam, bringing out with us. Evan, some good questions there as well. Gab was here
for a little bit. Sock Talk, my co-host, of course.
Make sure you're following everyone up here
and follow this host account for live spaces
every afternoon, power hour as we call it,
3 p.m. Eastern.
And we go till we get done a lot of times.
So sometimes that's two hours,
sometimes it's four hours.
Depends what kind of mood Stock Talk is in that day.
Unfortunately, I missed a good rant today, I think. So I'll catch up on that tomorrow for sure. Thanks everyone for tuning in.
We will check you guys out tomorrow. What is today? Wednesday. Yeah, tomorrow, Thursday,
our last show of the week. So make sure you can set notifications on this account, by the way.
We don't tweet anything out other than the schedule on Sunday and then whenever we go live. So not
going to clutter up your notification feed there
if you put notifications on this account.
And with that, I'm going to sign off.
Thanks to everyone for tuning in.
We will see you guys tomorrow afternoon.
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If you miss anything,
you can always go back and listen
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All right, everyone, take care.
Have a great evening. Thank you, guys. All right, everyone take care. Have a great
evening. Thank you.
