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INVESTING AT ALL TIME HIGHS | USING ETFs TO MANAGE RISK
Recorded: July 16, 2025 Duration: 3:43:15Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, key topics included a strategic partnership announcement, a successful fundraising event, and insights into an upcoming token launch, alongside emerging trends and yield opportunities in the crypto space.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome into Stocks on Spaces. Happy, what is today?
Wednesday, July the 16th.
And boy, we've been on a little flippy floppy pancake
back and forth type of day a little bit.
Back up here at the highs.
Boy, I don't even know how you summarize today
and what else going on,
but I'll try to do it quickly here
and then we'll dive into it a little bit deeper
with the crew. Give everyone a second to get joined up here on the panel this
afternoon. A quick market update for everyone as we come into power hour here, last hour of the
market. QQQ, the NASDAQ is slightly green, not by much, but by a little bit. And that's what counts, right? S&P is up a little bit more,
up 0.36% over there. IWM small caps up almost 1%. Dow Jones up about 0.5%. VIX has fallen down a
little bit today. We had a turbulent ride throughout the day. A lot of your big names
are still red. Tesla notably up 3.4%, breaking out here a little bit uh 321 a share there on tesla
nvidia break even right at this 170 171 area uh netflix flat ahead of their earnings tomorrow
dead flat as i look at this 0.00 very interesting timing there um other movers today cost goes down
amazon's down uh broadcom's down meta Meta's down, and Microsoft green.
Google had a decent day today.
Apple's Apple kind of went all over the place, but it's green.
We'll give Evan a shout out on that one.
And some crypto stuff came out.
Obviously, those no votes from yesterday that we had going on flipped back the other direction, apparently.
And we saw a big bump in Coinbase Circle and some of
those other crypto related names. And the big news, of course, we heard that a report came out
that Trump was going to fire Powell, that he had spoke with lawmakers, there was even a report about
a letter happening there. And then Trump came out and said none of that was true he did kind of uh
leave one foot in the ring a little bit and say that you know he's looking for replacement type
of stuff but uh trump basically came out ate some tacos as some of you would say so that's
that's kind of my update uh evan anything uh from you anything that you want to highlight before we
start kind of jumping into the conversation today no i'm excited to hear what everyone has to say we obviously had some flip-flops today taco wednesday and uh yeah a
little intraday one but yeah i'm excited to hear what other people have to say we're in earning
season as well we've got some banks reporting netflix goes tomorrow time on semiconductor
tomorrow morning uh so a lot of stuff going on and it's an interesting market i'm excited to hear
what people have to say even like the macro guys have stuff to look at with uh ppi and cpi and retail retail sales coming up
tomorrow morning so we're in an interesting time on this market and i'm excited to hear what everyone
has to say yeah absolutely uh several uh names reported this morning of course this after the
close so we'll be we'll also hear from uh united airlines discover alcoa some other names
after the close today tomorrow kind of the big kickoff day taiwan semi will probably be before
most of us go to bed this evening so keep your eyes out for that and uh let's dive into it a
little bit um jeffrey got you up here great to have you back on the spaces i know you were busy
the last few months finally gonna got you back on a couple times here how are you my friend i'm good how you doing you know we had
to do that almanac thing yeah busy times busy times for sure uh jeffrey what um what's been
on your radar what have you been seeing in these markets what's your take on everything going on
and uh of course anything with uh seasonality would love to hear that as well. Well, that's what we're talking about. That's what we're looking at right here.
I mean, I don't know if you guys saw, but I put out that mid-summer, mid-year rally,
the NASDAQ's Christmas in July, way back in June, which is the last few days of June through
July 14th. That's kind of where the market tends to peak, especially NASDAQ.
July 14th, that's kind of where the market tends to peak, especially NASDAQ.
We've crushed that, basically, beat the averages.
I mean, no major huge numbers for this group, but 3.5%, 3.3, I think it was, versus the average
2.5%, and now everyone's talking about August, September weakness.
So I just put a little post out on the thread here on the Spaces comments about that
weakness in August, September, plus that run from mid-July to the end of September with the three
main averages. So we have our best eight months for NASDAQ that ends in June.
We came into the month with the MACD 1226.9 negative on May 30th.
And then it took a long time to turn positive again to give us a fresh new crossover signal.
We got that.
It was Monday, which was the notice for us to get out of our queues and IWM positions.
So we did that.
We sent it out to subscribers.
I sold my queues and IWMs.
Note to self, trading.
I thought about doing it the afternoon, you know, after hours of the close.
about doing it the afternoon you know after hours to the close and i forgot to wait to see what
And I forgot to wait to see what happened in the morning.
happened in the morning then i was looking at a pre-market and uh didn't pull the trigger when i
could have should have so i left a couple bucks on the table but note to self and all the little
traders out here just you know don't think it don't overthink it when you're when your indicators
when your exit criteria are hit just pull the trigger and do it and move on um but again great trade for me my
iwm trade from uh well april 17th we got back in was up just under 20 percent um 19 point something
including commissions and such and then uh the queues are up about 28 or 27 28 i'm not looking
at right now from where we are so we've entered that, you know, cooling period for the markets.
Only concern with it is that everyone's all over it again this year, even though last
year we had the mid-July peak perfectly.
So we're still holding some of the international positions, the currencies and, you know, ETFs
we like and some international funds.
But it's time to just sort of rotate into a little bit of cash,
a little bit of bonds, and just sit tight for the next couple of months
until we get that fatter pitch in the fall during the, you know,
beginning of the best six-month season, the best eight months as well.
So that's where I'm at right now.
We did get that weakness after July 4th, you know, strength before, weakness after.
We did get that weakness after July 4th, you know,
strength before, weakness after.
And I think a lot of the news that you were talking about ahead of, you know, having me come on is coinciding, maybe not so coincidental, with the seasonality.
And I can tell you just from my experience in history,
the first half of August is generally weak.
I'm already planning, you know, the summer trip with the wife and stuff,
what we're going to, you know, really drilling down on our activities and stuff.
So I think a lot of that happens on the street. You know, everyone goes out to the Hamptons and so forth.
So here we are peeking out up at the top of a lot of the overbought indicators, whether
it's Bollinger Bands or whatever.
I just looked at my Investor's Intelligence reading.
We were highlighted as the correction theme going in line with the end of the best months.
And there's a lot of bulls.
There's more bulls.
There's less bears.
The chart of the difference between the bulls and the bears and the S&P
looks a lot like mid-years and summer of 22.
Remember when we had that sort of June-July little, you know, low, we thought,
and then we peaked and rolled over again at the bottom of October.
So that's kind of what's on my radar.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, great rundown.
I was going to ask you, so there's been some debate, some on this space
and then just in other conversations that are out there on the tweet line.
There's been some debate around the seasonality stuff this year,
just with everything that happened.
And as kind of the resident seasonality expert, I guess I'll call you, Jeffrey,
what is your take on it as far as everything that happened?
We had obviously the April, the tariff stuff going on,
and just did any of that reset or reshape?
You still see some underlying trends, obviously, tracking,
but how close is it tracking to typical seasonality? And how are you
approaching that when you have kind of these binary events going on in the market? Well, I mean,
the thing that we can correlate it to is post-election year seasonality, where there's that
Q1 weakness that I'm pretty sure we discussed early on. It's been all over my stuff. But, you know, the exogenous events, the tariff tumble, there's nothing you can do about that.
Like everything else in this business, in this endeavor, nothing's perfect. We got wiped out of, you know, washed out of the best six months a little bit. But we got back in, you know, using some other analysis.
And seasonality is just part of it.
But looking at the post-election year pattern for Republicans, for fifth terms,
for, you know, all the different iterations that I've shown out there,
it's tracking a bit more closely, you know, save the little, you know,
plunge there in April.
We come back to the
mean in the middle. It's not so far off, except for the tariff tumble, which is something that
was a one-off, once-in-a-generation type of event, as far as I can tell. I don't know about
anyone else that's seen this type of tariff activity coming out of a presidency, but
it's back on track, and it's tracking to this mid-July peak,
mid-late July peak. So seasonality, not perfect. It's not the only thing we use. I know everyone
wants me to just be pure seasonality, but if you go look at my market at a glance and the other
analysis we make, it's seasonality cycles. That's our foundation, but it's fundamentals,
technicals, monetary policy, and sentiment, which I just mentioned before.
So seasonality is, you know, sort of the background that gives you, you know, a framework for how the markets generally behave.
But anything can knock anything off, whether it's a war or, you know, strange announcements coming out of Truth Social or whatever it might be.
But it's still on track, especially for this August-September retreat.
Make sense?
Yeah, absolutely.
I love that rundown and breakdown into that.
And, you know, we have seen, I mean, you just mentioned, like,
the run-up into July 4th and the post beyond that.
And then, of course, you know, other layers seen, I mean, you just mentioned like the run up into July 4th and the post beyond that. And then of course, you know, other layers of confluence here, what we are at this point.
And I think most people agree with this, that the market's kind of just broadening out, you know,
tech kind of led the way in this rally and starting to see a little broadening out. What,
what pockets have you been tracking? What have you been seeing out there, Jeffrey, where are you
looking for alpha? Yeah. I mean, the utilities have done well. And, you know, there's a whole aspect of this boom, this tech boom, AI and crypto that involves energy.
I had the chief economist from Constellation Energy on my podcast.
I was on his show. He's an old trader, old oil patch trader.
Ed Fortunato is his name. And he, you know, he's been an Almanac buyer for years. And his firm and others
that are powering this technology boom is kind of one of the things we've been focused on.
Some other of the infrastructure like MCOR and the utilities, the XAU is what we've been into.
So that's one of the things.
But I'm no enemy of tech.
I mean, that's what's making the boom happen.
So while there's some rotation into some other sectors that's nice and healthy,
I still think the future lies in technology and innovation.
I think we need to do a lot more here in this country to secure that.
I think there's a lot of positive things going on.
But I would say the infrastructure stuff,
the data center support,
the construction of those things
and the powering of them is sectors.
And then nuclear also.
Yeah, 100%.
I saw nuclear catching a bit today.
CCJ, U, U, U, U.
Three U's, four U's, whatever it is, four U's.
Saw that one, catching a bit today.
That was talked about over on our live trading a little bit today.
Appreciate you, Jeffrey.
Hope you'll hang out.
Of course, jump in the conversation at any time.
If anybody has anything that's said, and we love the open dialogue. So, yeah, absolutely. So throw up a hand, jump in the conversation at any time if anybody has anything that's said. And we love the open dialogue.
So, yeah, absolutely.
So throw up a hand, jump in the conversation if you've got anything to add to a topic.
In the meantime, let's keep rolling around here a little bit.
Options Mike, how are you today?
I'm good, Em.
How are you doing, bud?
Well, much better.
I sound better.
I got about 80% of the voice back.
Yes, definitely do.
I'm feeling much better. I got about 80% of the voice back. Yes, definitely do. Thank you. I'm feeling much better.
I got some rest in. So, you know, watching these markets and trying to figure out what's going on,
what hit your radar today? You know, any pockets that interested you, news headlines, trades,
what's going on in your world? Well, I mean, I think the first thing to look at is that PPI
number was very good today. You know, month over month, zero, year over year, lower than expected.
That's really good to see.
So that was a good number.
And then we started with the, you know, the taco headlines.
And I kind of wonder if this was actually a part of Trump trying to get his crypto bill through.
And basically, he had resistance from a bunch of Republicans and said, I won't fire him if, you know, you guys vote for my crypto bill, which was, you know, was stalled yesterday.
I also think that, you know, that's the type of thing we don't want.
A bunch of senators have come out, CEO Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both saying the Fed needs to be independent, not, you know,
not controlled by the president. So, you know, if he does try to fire him, this is going to
go to the courts. I mean, unless they're going to be burdened proof, it's going to be on them
to prove that, you know, Powell purposely is lying to Congress. And basically,
Congress has the right to act there. So take that all aside,
and we throw politics aside, the most important thing to take from today is the market has got a
big hammer candle on the spine, on the cues. After that big dip down, we reversed hard,
and we're back above the eighth day, and we're green on the day here. And, you know,
that's been a strong market. We've been talking about all this money sitting on the day here and uh you know that's just one strong market we've been talking about all this
money sitting on the sidelines all this money looking for a place to go and you know these
little dips are going to get aggressively bought uh until people get hurt because right now they're
just sitting on cash on the sidelines and looking for things that said you know under the covers
today it wasn't necessarily the easiest of days so So I traded RGTI early this morning, had a nice little trade on that.
And then I traded Tesla a couple of times in calls.
You know, you've been asking me about Tesla.
Well, today was the day.
Today I finally got myself back into the Tesla game and traded that one.
Nice move here, trying to break above the 50-day now.
That would be a big spot.
It has not been able to break above that for a while.
Unity had a nice move
today it's up like what 10 off of that um price target increase it had you know uh ethereum has
had a big move today hood new all-time highs palantir new all-time highs stop if you heard
this from me before coin over 400 the real power remains of some of these crypto names around
stablecoin circle also nice move today back up as a little while ago.
I did trade that one win, one loss.
Really don't like the options on that, the way they trade.
So, you know, overall, I think the market's holding it fine.
We have two trading days left.
We have retail sales.
We have Alcoa tonight and Taiwan Semi tonight. And who else do
you have? I'm sorry, United Airlines tonight and Taiwan Semi at 1 a.m. with, you know, really not
much tomorrow. You have Pepsi's in there as well. And we'll see. You know, the market feels like
we're in wait mode now. We're waiting for some of these bigger names that should start to come in
next week other than Netflix tomorrow night. and Taiwan send me tomorrow morning next
week should it should be pretty well when's Johnson & Johnson too I think
they're in the morning no they were today they were there how'd that go yep
good they're up nicely nice we're getting a lot of different interesting
sectors I know ASML was down this morning.
I didn't check back in on it.
There was something about growth next year.
I hope we get Monitam up here at some point.
Talk more about that when I saw ASML was.
Where is it now?
It recovered a lot throughout the day.
Yeah, a lot of sectors.
You mentioned Taiwan Semi.
We'll get that one tonight.
There's Pepsi DE tomorrow morning as well.
I mean, there's so many different sectors that are going to start getting hit over the next little time period.
So, busy time.
Yeah, well, hey, I'm here for it.
You know, we kind of hit that lull early July where you didn't have a whole lot.
You have some headlines here and there, but even that calmed down a little bit.
Pentagon to increase low-cost drone production in the production in the US is on the wire right now
drones that's another theme that just keeps
popping up here drones
nuclear
are they moving right now
those are the two that we've always gone through and you look at that right
I did buy some Kratos Kratos had a heck of a day today i know stock
talks been all over that name recently um let's keep going around i'm surprised i'm surprised
recently well when i say recently i mean like i'm messing with you i'm messing with you but
i have a really long time yeah yeah um Yeah. It's a great day.
Yeah.
Quick thing.
I'm just going to jut in here.
I know we're going to go to the panel.
I'm going to jut in here because I was supposed to be on vacation, but the vacation has been
canceled.
What?
Yeah.
The well, I'm here, but they reject your visa because the wedding was postponed for three
weeks.
So are you staying there for three weeks?
No, no, no, no. Did you go back in three weeks yeah no I need
to see I'm coming back early I didn't book my return anyway so that option is
who is this are they gonna friend but you're paying double no they're cousin
of mine their cousin of my hotels yeah it's a wedding it's a wedding I wanted
to go to but yeah I mean you know unforeseen circumstances there's some
issue with the venue I don't know exactly what it was, but I think maybe there was double booked or something was broken.
Do they know how big this guy's Discord is?
Are they going to actually delay the event?
Like I said, it's a cousin of mine.
It's their family.
Yes, they had a very nice setup in Banff.
Apparently, they can't have guests there.
They're delaying it by three weeks.
And yeah, so vacation canceled, I guess.
I'm back.
So anyway, go back, go to the panel
and then I'll chime in.
But obviously an insane day for a ton of stocks
and a lot of our stocks as well.
So I'll get into the thick of things
with individual names,
but let's go to the panel first as usual
and let everybody get their thoughts in first.
Well, my head's just spinning with what's going on in canada right now stock talk up there that's well either way all right uh we'll get the rest whatever it is in the second all i know is i want
to oh i know is i want to tariff it yeah i thought for sure he was gonna have a visa issue or
something i don't know but here we are.
Anyways, let's continue around the panel a little bit. Spartan, you're up here on stage with us.
Always enjoy hearing what you've got on your radar, what you've been looking at from a trading investing standpoint.
How are you, my friend?
I am good. I'm good. So, you know, a lot of different things.
You know, I came out today when the market was pulling back, I actually threw a line on the spine. I said, buy from here,
go along from here and ended up getting a nice continuation push.
I was off by a couple of pennies, which, you know, lucky every now and then.
That's been good. CRCL would be on that since 202 today.
Nice little breakup flag into the upside continuation there.
I actually ended up yesterday taking some profits.
We bought almost all the semiconductors on leaps,
and we did a lot of ladders going out further on the semis,
basically every single one of them on the option side,
and we scaled out a lot of them yesterday.
A lot of stuff was blowing off, like AMD, et cetera, to the upside.
I don't think it's like we're in a reversal by any means, but I think they'll come back in a little bit and then probably look to roll out in the short term.
I think the AI trade is alive and well, and we should see continuation there.
Tesla, often Spike talked about it.
I use EMAs, but 50 may cross on the daily flagging and tweeted about this thing this morning.
335, I think this gets back to 352
360 as long as you know elon doesn't come on x and you know say a bunch of random stuff that
pulls it back down he stays quiet i think it's going to get some pretty good um continuation
back to the outside there's a lot of catch-up uh to be had there but you know we'll see what happens
there mstr like that all the crypto names really like the Treasury plays.
I talked about UPEX-y last week.
Hold on, I just want to say,
he has been posting less about politics,
but multiple of his last couple tweets
have been about Trump being in the Epstein files.
So I don't know where we're going with that.
Just saying.
But we were calming down for a little bit,
and those were the last three or four of his tweets yeah i know we'll see he's throwing in a little bit more kind of
business related things too now you know talking about some of the companies and you know maybe
this invest in that whatever so it's kind of changing but you know he's kind of a wild card
so who knows uh regardless though um you know there's a of things on the semiconductor side that I like as well.
Arm, I think you've got to keep an eye on that name.
Nice little flag break continuation higher.
Marvell has been lagging behind.
It's at the 50.
It may extend into the downside, probably a buying opportunity, in my opinion, today.
Worth keeping an eye on that.
Being pretty heavy on the Chinese names the last couple of days.
SE has been a good one.
Baba Baidu.
We actually got a thousand percent mover on this
se 160 call from monday and i think they'll still flag into the upside with some room higher these
ones are great to trade on the often side se futu baidu baba typically not a lot of premium
they start to move they usually move multiple days so i think there's uh you know probably a little
bit more room to the upside on those and And then, of course, these small caps have been fantastic.
So anything that's kind of related to what's hot in terms of whether it's the sector or kind of thematic on the small cap side has been getting a lot of follow through, more than we've seen in years.
So there's definitely a lot of opportunity there.
I talked about this last week, a good way to find them or even just chasing them.
Look at relative volume above one, one and a half. If it looks like
it's got room on the daily, you got continuation. A prime example today was this YHC, which
we grabbed this morning. It's up 100%. Just take a look at
the daily there. Perfect example. A daily chart with room, good relative volume
across the 50 may all
you may is crossing up the graduate at 493 it's at 1035 right now and uh the daily chart has just
a crap load of room off the lows and let me just look at this name i believe it might be
a china related name and no miami beach florida okay no it's just one of those names that they
kind of liquidated you can kind of keep an eye on those two that may become a theme on the small cap side where those names that, you know, obviously they push to like 50, 100, whatever, and then they liquidate them.
They come back into like one, two bucks.
You start to see some of these go.
YHC is kind of going pretty good today.
You'll probably see some sympathy across the board there.
But, you know, for the most part, I kind of overall continue to just look at the dips and buy off the, you know, buy the dips
has been working BFD until it stops working and use those support levels on the daily. Like I've
been saying the last couple of weeks, being really good levels to grab off of. And, you know,
lo and behold, look at today, right off the lows on that support level, the daily market's at,
markets that'll, you know, intraday highs, we'll see if we can get a little bit of a squeeze in
you know, intraday highs. We'll see if we can get a little bit of a squeeze in the close.
the close. This rhetoric and kind of what they're doing too, as long as they keep doing it, the
market's going to continue to stair-step higher, whip higher, because shorts are going to get
stuck within the market. So from a technical standpoint, not political, I'm looking at these
dips as buying opportunities. It seems like nothing happens every single time. And we can
use that to our advantage.
Once that pattern starts to change, then you can change the way you behave in the market.
But if what you're doing is working, continue to do it until that pattern changes.
And, you know, don't anticipate anything, you know, until it does.
Right.
And that's kind of it for now, guys.
Yeah, that's overall what I'm looking at.
It's been interesting like I mean the intraday action has been
kind of all over the place recently
I ask everyone this
are there any themes
pockets of the market that you're like
feel really good about I mean I know
some of these things are kind of continual
some of them are more like they come and go and you headlines kind of move them.
But where are you finding the most opportunities right now?
Well, I think there's a lot of opportunity in the semiconductors still.
And going into earnings, a lot of them kind of lowered guidance or didn't even release guidance.
So we see that, especially like let's say NVIDIA comes out and they, because now they can sell the chips in China, they raise their guidance.
That's probably going to juice the entire sector up.
We're starting to see them push anyways.
And then these, you know, mid to small caps, obviously Bitcoin treasury plays, I think are very, very bullish right now.
And there's a ton of opportunity.
Really like that.
I've been spending a lot of time in the small cap sector.
And then, you know, you get these random thematic plays like, you know, for instance,
China, and that's starting to, you know, kind of pan out. There's a lot of opportunity there
because these things have been beaten down. So I'm looking for those great risk reward opportunities
with some sort of thematic kind of bullish momentum behind it.
And you tend to get some pretty good fall through on those.
We were watching kind of the, probably going forward,
more AI related cloud-based is lagging behind a semi that it typically does.
And I think that's going to pick up, not necessarily a CRWD, but, you know,
look at PNW, Twilio, you know, Datadog, all those types of names as well.
I think they got some nice opportunity going forward.
So, yeah.
Yeah, makes perfect sense.
Appreciate that, Spartan.
Let's continue around the panel a little bit here.
Once again, of course, anybody, feel free to jump in at any time.
Urkel, we've got you up here on stage on these Wednesdays.
What are you seeing out there
in these markets? What have you been trading and what's catching your attention? Hey, thanks for
having me back on again. I agree with much of the panel. I mean, momentum and trend is to the upside.
Any and all dips, broadly speaking, are generally getting bought up, especially in the hot names,
and the hot names are staying hot.
You know, options Mike mentioned earlier, Hood, Palantir.
I would add to that Rocket Labs, ASTS with a pretty significant bounce recently too.
And I mentioned Google here a couple weeks ago that I really liked off the 160s.
That's looking pretty healthy.
And if that keeps holding the 180s, I do like it potentially to the gap above in that 190 to 200 range.
But yeah, like every time something gets extended in this market and the extensions are very small,
you know, they pull too far away from the 5.9 EMAs.
We tend to see a relatively short pullback consolidation and continuation higher unless
something is pushed down by way of catalyst or some type of policy that might impact the business
going forward otherwise for the most part the hot names are staying hot crypto which I've kind of
pushed quite a bit around here is looking good to me. Bitcoin had that big run to the 123K mark.
It got overextended.
So did the Bitcoin miners.
So on Monday, they all gapped up and went up 10, 12%.
Some of those miners, they pulled back on Tuesday,
right back to the 5.9 EMAs and they're curling back up today.
Everything's up, you know, 4, 5, 6%,
depending on what you're watching.
New trades, personally, I've jumped into bull, wee bull.
I've started accumulating that this week in the 12s.
If you look at the technicals on the daily, it's sitting on a big volume shelf and a 20 EMA after a significant pullback.
So in terms of technicals alone,
this stock is actually working on a breakout as we speak.
Whether or not follow-through comes or not, we'll see.
As we know, follow-through is always key.
But that's a name that ran really hot on IPO,
ran up to about 80, dropped back down to 10.
I would suspect there's probably a lot of people trapped, still holding,
and it's basing pretty nicely here off the 12.
So that's a new swing I took this week that I'm managing off that $12 area.
If there is a significant breakdown, I don't really ride these kind of high beta names down.
But as long as the 12s hold, if you look at the daily chart,
it's actually working on a potential breakout so I'm looking for about 1350 to 1550 on that if there is follow through on the breakout another one I've been watching for three weeks is 10
TEM I've been waiting for a pullback on that down to 54 to 60 and I actually mentioned it yesterday too
I got really excited when it dropped down to 55 I've literally watched this freaking stock for
three weeks trying to catch my entry near 55 and I completely whiffed on it and missed my entry this
morning that one's up seven percent back to 60 I posted a little daily chart on that. It's a significant demand zone here between
54 and 60. And we know this one tends to run hot when it goes. So that's one I'm looking at too.
I really don't want to chase it here at 60. It's up 7% on some news today. But if I do get a little
bit of a dip, I might jump into that after a multi-week pullback again much like many other names in this
market that healthy market rotation you see themes get hot then they pull back
and money flows elsewhere so if you're a swing trader it's a really easy market
to catch supports and just hold and if you if you're a more active trader,
you can trim, add back dips and compound that way.
And if you're a very active trader,
you just kind of jump in and out of the themes.
You're jumping into what's hot, you're exiting,
finding what's been pulling back
or sitting in consolidation, jumping into that.
I mean, there's just no shortage of options,
whether you're looking at nuclear, AI or crypto or health care, which took a little bit of a hit and is bouncing back to just a lot to play.
And as long as this trend holds, I think it was Spartan before me who suggested it.
You just keep riding the trend and it's getting really noisy.
There's a lot of headlines, all this Powell stuff kind of coming in,
but the market continues to shake everything off.
Earnings season's going to be big,
but in the meantime, to his point,
and I agree, as long as it's working,
we'll keep riding the momentum,
riding the trade,
taking advantage of this market's personality,
and once that changes,
we'll adapt and adjust as well.
But until then, trend is up aggressively.
And as long as trend holds,
I'm going to continue to look for these opportunities,
either breakouts or hot themes
or recently hot themes with stocks pulling back into support levels,
basing and consolidating and then reversing so just kind
of my focus as a semi-active short to midterm swing trader i'm just kind of jumping in and
out of these themes and trying to catch what's hot yeah i love that makes perfect sense uh urkel
let me ask you a little bit around uh this crypto. It seems like you're fairly in tune with it. Little waffle back and forth per usual with things going on in this administration these days. a pretty sharp sell-off that somewhat got bought up a little bit, I guess, in the late portion of
the day. But kind of a flip back, they flipped some votes around. Do you have a take around that?
Are you tracking that story with this genius bill and the voting on it over in the House?
I mean, I'm watching the headlines because they do impact very short-term price action. And I do recall when, was it Senator Loomis, I think it was,
when she initially introduced it several months ago.
I was kind of hot on it, and I really haven't tracked it as closely lately.
And even Bitcoin, to a certain extent, is shaking off this kind of news,
whether it's the vote or something different.
My point initially when we talked about this, I think when Bitcoin was at 75,000, 80,000 or so,
and I was talking about that in MSTR, was under this administration,
and this administration's policy in general is very pro-crypto.
Trump and his family have been buying crypto.
They've been
firing regulators I just saw no reason to be bearish on crypto and the bill and
the vote may create some short-term volatility but I don't think that
Bitcoin is just going to tank and go away for good under this administration
so no is the answer in terms of having tracked it very specifically recently and updates or changes to it.
And yes, in terms of just knowing about it from a broad sense, just kind of keeping an eye on the news.
But really, I'm just looking more at the price and trend demand, things like that, more so than the short term catalysts right now.
Yeah, I hear you.
When we do look at the bigger picture there, Circle, Coinbase,
are there any other names that you're particularly interested in
in that beneficiary, I guess, realm of the crypto stuff?
So Coinbase and MSTR, personally, I've kind of,
Coinbase more maybe in terms of investment mstr and the bitcoin miners
i don't own them long term but i do like to use them as a trading vehicle
otherwise etfs are generally pretty good if it's ibit or whatever it is you're looking into
so yeah i'm not particularly long bitcoin miners i do love trading them though i'm very familiar
with them something I talk to my
members all the time about is just familiarity and knowing personalities of some of these stocks so
yeah coin I really like in the longer term and I think that has a pretty nice runway to well above
$400 where it's testing and sitting right now. And ironically, I guess Jim Cramer wasn't
that far off several years ago when he said he liked it to $400. We just had to make a trip down
the 31st before we came back up. So yeah, I'm more of an active trader. I do own the ETF, IBIT.
But outside of that and coin just, you know, especially since the SMP inclusion news several weeks,
maybe a couple of months ago now,
I've really liked for a longer term hold,
but Bitcoin miners and things like that,
I'm more of an active trader in and out.
Appreciate those thoughts, Erickle.
And Stock Talk is all alone out there in Canada.
If you want to go try to save him, give him some company.
There's a Google news.
OpenAI said they're going to use Google's cloud for ChatTBT,
I believe is what I just heard.
I don't know.
We'll have Evan double check that.
That's pretty ridiculous.
They're going to destroy you and use your cloud. I that's i mean it's gonna be good business but it's just funny
yeah i'm looking looking to confirm that headline i just heard on a new squacker there we'll uh
get that out here just a second i saw hamid joined us up here as well. And then Logical. So Logical,
let's go ahead and let's go to you next. And then we'll hit Hamid afterwards.
Yeah, sounds good. Obviously been a very strong market, very resilient market. That's the word
I would use even today. And I had a post today like, is he just like, is Trump just, and I know
it's funny because we say, is he just like,
and we all know who we're talking about because this guy is in the news every
single day. It's ridiculous. You know, I had a post that said like,
is he just putting stuff out there, see what the reaction is,
and then walking it back if there's a bad reaction.
Every person in my comments is like, that's absolutely what he's doing.
That's exactly, we thought the same thing.
I'm glad you brought that up because it's like,
did he literally put out the balloon today
and then just watch it get shot down so he walked out after?
Yep, yep.
I think that's what's going on.
So I'll talk a little bit about what I've been doing lately.
Again, like today, the spy was tanking, lost the 9 EMA,
and then bounced, obviously, when he walked it back.
And it's holding that and it's pushing new highs a day. So we all can see that. And it's very
strong, very resilient. Obviously, a lot of themes working, you guys are all touching on all that.
For me personally, I think a big part, I guess what I'll spend my time talking about right now
is portfolio management is very key. And it's very personal. And I think that every person has their own style and what
they want to do and what are their financial goals. And I think while we're in the midst of
a crazy bull market, I think we lose sight of what we're doing it for. And so I've been personally
deleveraging, degrossing a little bit. And not to say I'm
bearish in any way, I'm still fully invested. And what I mean by that is I'm just not as
aggressively positioned. I have taken off a lot, most of my calls, because that was messing up
with a lot of liquidity in my account. And it was just becoming too volatile.
And I also reduced all of my, I've basically reduced all of my holdings so that I can get
back to having zero margin on. I know, you know, I always talk about in here, oh, I'm 140% long,
whatever. I am now 100% long. It doesn't mean that I'm bearish. It just means that I think we've had a hell of a run
and I want to, you know, reduce the volatility. I want to be able to lean in any sort of market
weakness with strength all while still capturing the upside by being fully invested. Again,
just trying to reduce some of that aggressive positioning um right now it feels like
we're about we're headed for like that january february 2021 blow off top and some of these names
before some things came back to reality i don't think we're necessarily anywhere remotely close
in terms of um the craziness that was happening back then but i think to provide context there
we had a crap load of fiscal stimulus back then and zero percent interest rates so obviously the the the peaks then were
way crazier just given the liquidity backdrop right now we're still sitting around you know
almost you know five percent thirty year four point five percent ten years so i think that you
know if you put put that into context there's there's still less uh liquidity right
now versus 2021 so you know while we're not as stretched from a valuation or craziness perspective
uh i think given the context of where we are um there is a bit of that um so for me look i've
always been a fundamental investor i always like to um you know, think about the fundamentals, the valuation, give me a margin
of safety to the downside, gives me some sort of cushion. It makes me feel a little bit, I don't
know what the word is, I don't want to say safe, but it makes me feel a little bit more conservative
when I take into account some of those fundamentals. And so I've reduced a lot of the trading positions I had, especially the lower
conviction ones. I've found that, you know, when a market is so hot like this, and I see new, you
know, all these charts are setting up, everything looks beautiful, I want to take every freaking
trade. And I was realizing that I was definitely getting to way too many positions, because I was
too loosely opening them. And so, you know, I was spreading myself very, very thin.
I'm sure there's others who are probably finding themselves in this situation
that they just keep finding a new ticker that looks amazing.
And, you know, it's fun for a while and it works.
Some work, some don't.
But I think the mental capital that it was costing me was far too much.
And I wanted to make, get some of that back in my
day. Because it was a little bit stressful to manage all those positions and all the options
and all that stuff. So yeah, I've made a few moves in the last couple days. I've, again,
cut 90% of my options exposure, I've cut all of my margin down to zero i even um decided you know what it's been a great run
i had an extension on my taxes i'm gonna pay those off so i withdrew some funds i'm basically
trying to reset regroup and be ready for anything seasonality wise i know we got jeff up here but um
you know like the back half of july a little bit choppy after a big rip uh the first half
into monthly options expiration.
If you think about 2023 and 2024, not that things need to repeat, but July to October
in 2023 was a pretty nasty pullback.
2024, we had a pullback pretty deep into August.
So yeah, I'm just, you know, again, fully invested, but just a little bit less aggressive, taking my foot off the gas and, you know, just being really happy with where I'm at right now.
My taxable account, which is most of my assets, is, you know, up over 66% year to date.
I've given a little bit back, but, you know, I just want to make sure that I protect these gains, and that's really important to me.
Actually, you know, I think everyone should go do this.
If you have your brokerage account, go and check your realized performance year to date.
Obviously, if you're a long-term investor and you haven't really been trading much, selling positions, etc., you won't really gain much insight from this.
But if you're an active trader, I did this today.
I went and looked at what has contributed to all of my realized capital gains this year, which, by the way, are short term.
So that's going to suck next year. But, you know, profits, profits.
I'm not going to complain. I noticed that like the vast majority, almost all of my gains came from equity, from shares.
Whereas I've spent so much time this year trading options and I've netted out okay on that side.
But like for the amount of risk I've taken, for the amount of brainpower I've used, all that stuff,
I would have been better off just holding shares apparently.
And so that's what the performance is telling me.
You know what it is this year?
I trade a lot of options is like hood today.
If you're sitting in options,
you got a $3 yank in the middle of day.
That just destroys the options.
Even though it went to high of the day.
I mean, it's just chewing them alive.
This intraday chop.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I could totally see that too.
But you know, here's the one thing
that i'll i'll say is like i'm generally pretty smart about x like being pretty far out on the
expiration um i'm pretty smart about you know only buying options and names that have somewhat
reasonable iv on the contracts and i'll be very reasonable about not just timing,
but the strikes being near the money, I'm fairly conservative. The issue is I've had some of these
stocks and I've gone, I think I've gotten a little too oversized on my options positions.
And the problem is that like, let's say over a one month basis, a stock goes from 20 to 18.
let's say over a one month basis, a stock goes from 20 to 18. This actually happened to me.
You know, while that's a 10% move in the shares, the options are down like 40%. And it's not too
big of a deal if you size it appropriately. But in a lot of cases, I'm like, you know, I see the
stock moving against me. And I might even roll the options down. But now I've committed more capital to the trade instead of like, you know,
sometimes I won't even like, I'll just say, you know what?
It's even a better deal here at 18 than it was at 20.
I'll just add more into the trade. I'll roll down my options.
And I just keep adding, you know, to losing trade. So this is, you know,
me doing like a postmortem on some of the things that went wrong and why my
performance couldn't, could have been potentially much higher um so yeah i mean i'm just saying i i think one thing that is it's really important
is that and i make this mistake all the time and i definitely need to improve i'm not you know i
think everyone has room for improvement what they can do better. And I think that's important is when it comes to options, it's a lot of leverage and people
don't really understand, comprehend that.
And even I, while I comprehend it, I just feel like I should, like, for example, let's
say I could put $20,000 into a stock and buy shares right then i'm like well what if i instead put
ten thousand dollars and i just You're back. We got you now. One second.
So imagine you put 20K into some shares and then you instead put 10K into options, right?
You're like, oh, I'm committing less capital to this trade.
But instead of, let's say, maybe buying a thousand shares, you now all of a sudden have like 50 calls.
We lost you again.
All right.
Well, we'll work on getting logical back out. There is apparently a report that there are seven no's on the crypto bill again now.
So it's just the saga continues. and that is what i'm seeing here uh we're going to get logical back hamid
heard your voice great to have you on the spaces again i'd love to get your thoughts around anything
you've heard in the conversation and anything that's been on your radar these days thank you
thank you yeah i've been uh i've been traveling quite a bit, so I haven't been on Spaces, or as much anyway.
Yeah, my portfolio has been continuing to crush it.
Actually, Logical mentioned how he's up 66% year-to-date.
That's literally exactly what my portfolio says as well, that I'm up year-to-date 66%, which is kind of crazy.
today it's 66 which is kind of crazy uh it's it's you know like these type of uh um increases
always make me a little bit nervous so i've been um i've been trimming a lot of my positions i
trimmed a little bit of robin hood which has been crushing it uh for me and it's um uh still more
than 20 of my portfolio it's like roughly 23%. I even trimmed some Rocket Lab, which is one of my favorite companies.
But even after trimming it, it's still 28% of my portfolio because it's up like another 7.5% today.
So it's been a great few years, actually.
actually. But especially this year in particular. The one stuff that I have still been adding,
But especially this year in particular.
because I think it's ridiculously priced. Sometimes I'm jumping up and down saying
how things are ridiculously priced like Robinhood two years ago or Rocket Lab a year ago,
when they were like one-tenth the current prices. But one that I've been jumping up and down about lately has been Bumble.
And this is a company that is shockingly cheap, in my opinion,
because it's a profitable company with about a billion dollars in revenue.
The revenue growth has stagnated, meaning it's like roughly, you know, like at the billion dollar mark and possibly going down a little bit.
But the founder who left about a year and a half ago is now back running the company.
And she came back in March.
So she has had basically three months running the company.
company. And in the past three months, she's trimmed 30% of the staff, so major layoffs,
And in the past three months, she's trimmed 30 percent of the staff.
cut marketing costs substantially, revised their Q2 guide up from $238 or $9 million in revenue
expectation up to $247. So the company is extremely profitable. They expect $80 million in EBITDA. And the company is trading at roughly 0.7 times sales, 0.7 it is, which they should be able to even increase it
with the cost cuttings that they're doing,
they should actually be able to make
somewhere in the $300 to $400 million of profits
in the next year,
which would mean that their PE ratio
in the coming year is roughly about a 2.5,
like 2.5 PE ratio,
which is mind-blowingly low for a profitable
company with a billion-dollar business.
Hamid, can I real quick?
Yeah, jump in.
Have you ever been on the dating apps?
I'm sorry if that's too personal.
I briefly used them, but did not like them.
I prefer like in person, so i haven't been using them um yeah
i just wanted to say um you know as someone who's used them um in the past um years obviously before
i met my wife um the uh like bumble is for sure i would just say the worst one. Or I don't know, maybe it's better than Tinder.
Hinge is obviously the best.
But the thing about Bumble is the woman has to send the message first for one.
And I just, I don't know why, but I just feel like that's kind of a losing strategy in this.
But I could be wrong, but I've just, you know, back in the dating app days, I never felt like Bumble was the good one. Never led to anything great. It just kind of felt off.
But, and then when you tell me like, you know, they're trading so cheap and they're doing cost
cutting measures, I'm kind of wondering like, you know, for me, you know, could they cut and maybe
could this stock re-rate higher, 50% higher?
Yeah, that could happen.
But I'm not sure if it would be like a pound-the-table kind of investment just because I don't know if I truly believe in that app or the leadership.
And whenever a company gets to a point of, you know, cutting costs, that usually tells me that they're expanding their profits by optimizing their operating expenses rather than increasing top line revenue.
So that's just something that I'd probably keep an eye on.
Yeah, no, that's definitely a good perspective.
But keep in mind, like in 2022, Meta wasn't growing anymore.
And, you know, Zuckerberg basically had major cost-cutting efforts and declared a year of efficiency, refocused the company
in substantial ways.
One of the things that I like about Bumble is the fact that the founder is back and
taking responsibility for fixing real problems.
So when I invest in a company, by the way, I sort of like go deep and like start listening
to all the interviews of the founder. And because to me, it's all about like the CEO of the company and what they're doing
and whether or not I think the CEO is awesome. And if I think the CEO is great, then I sort of
like double down type of thing. And listening to her Q1 call, which was her first call after being back, she talked a lot about how basically
Bumble's user base thinks that the product sucks, exactly what you were saying, and that they need
to do a lot of work in improving their user experience. And this reminded me of a commercial that I saw back in like roughly 25 years ago for Domino's Pizza.
And interestingly, back then, Domino's Pizza, this is a quick story, side story,
but Domino's Pizza had basically been on a decline, doing horrible.
And I was watching TV one day and this commercial comes on
where they're showing the test results of people testing,
tasting Domino's pizza.
And everyone is like, this is disgusting pizza.
It's like gross.
And this is a commercial for Domino's.
And the narrator on the commercial starts to talk about how, like, basically they went
back to the drawing board after realizing their pizza has not been like keeping up with
the expectations of people of what pizza should taste like and they redid their pizza i saw that
commercial and immediately went and bought some domino stock and um my dumb ass sold it when when
the when the uh stock tripled but it basically has been up over a hundred times since then, since 2000. But the reality is that when
companies actually take, when the CEO of a company takes a company and recognizes that,
hey, we have a problem here and we need to actually fix this and we need to do it in an
efficient way where we still stay profitable and efficient doing it. Those are the things,
turnarounds that I really love. And when I look at Bumble, it kind of fits into that category.
Now, I take the worst case scenario as they won't be able to grow revenue. Maybe their revenue will
even decline by 10% over the next year or two. In that worst case scenario,
they're still going to be extremely profitable.
And there's no reason why they should be
a $700 million company
because they're going to make $700 million or more
in profits over the next couple of years.
So the company could basically buy itself back
in a matter of two or three years.
So the price is, it's just mispriced.
And sometimes this happens in the market
where things are mispriced, right?
Those are the awesome opportunities.
At one point, Robinhood was priced below its cash.
And you can look this up and I was jumping up and down.
I was like, they have $7 in cash.
They're currently trading at like $6.80
or whatever it was
um so that that's one of the things that i like about uh bumble is that it's just incredibly low
priced mispriced and then the founder seems to be focused on the right things so anyway that's my
little spiel about bumble but um but yeah there's uh the market has been extremely good and my portfolio in particular has been doing really well. So I've been like shedding, trimming large positions and trying to build up cash in case we have an April type event that happens again. So that's my little spiel.
I love that Hamid and I love how you uh wrapped up those eloquent thoughts with 30 seconds until
this final bell beautiful uh timing on that even if it was by accident big uh big times coming up
for you as well Hamid with uh earnings season getting going here obviously here after the
close we're gonna have UAL, Discover, some other names.
I don't know if anybody's watching any of those names today, but then Netflix is really,
I think, I know Options Mike mentioned this with myself, we kind of use that at our true
earnings kickoff, even though we've had some of the big banks and names go already.
But excited to jump into that.
There's our closing bell. Officially
closed green on the day. S&P up 0.33%. QQQ up 0.10%. IWM, small cap world up 1%.
And United Airlines is out there. Evan, do you got anything to throw in here right now?
It was actually crazy timing. I walked away and came back what's up mark closed what's what was
it on market just closed and uh no it was just we uh got closed up a lot of thoughts we got some
earnings coming out we hadn't gone i thought the bubble conversation was interesting i find myself
in the logical camp of when he's talking about the apps of which ones he likes and which one he
doesn't i pretty much agree with that in my, none of them work except for Hinge, actually.
But I don't know. We'll see.
But I have found myself saying that multiple times about Hamid stocks.
And one of them was Robinhood at like $6.
And another one was Rivian.
Like, what was it? Like $8, $9.
That one's obviously not the $20, but that one's still higher.
So I might have added a couple of Rivian shares, Bumble shares,
added to my watch list, and we'll see.
The valuation aspect of it, I don't imagine there's too many stocks
that you can play the valuation angle on right now that aren't like,
hey, we're an energy gas company or we're this and that old head thing.
So, yeah, I thought that was interesting.
United Airlines did come out with earnings missed on revenue.
And it just went back green, actually.
It's kind of all over the place.
On the valuation thing, I know Logical has mentioned this,
some others up here, but it's been very interesting.
I mean, is 30 the new 20? 20 you know the old saying about age but
is it's 30p the new 20 uh hey i just uh if you don't mind i wanted to jump in and finish my
thought from earlier because i got a little disconnected oh yeah absolutely yeah so um
and also on your thought about valuations you know, I, again, I made that argument before, like people keep trying to use, oh, we're at the upper end above the historic range.
It's like, yeah, dude, in the historic range, we literally had, you know, L'Oreal as a top
company where you get shampoo or some shit at like 10% gross margins or whatever.
Like I, it's just not the same.
So using, you know, historic stuff, it's just funny to me when people do that.
I also don't like it the opposite way.
When people are like, oh, Google is trading at its historical low.
It's like, yeah, but Google wasn't a $2 trillion company 10 years ago.
So using that logic doesn't work either.
Again, it's not about, you know, this time is different.
It's more like you got to have context when you're providing data. I am a data scientist. I've done data analytics for 10 years. It's just,
these are silly arguments. Anyways, going back to my point earlier about, you know, me talking about,
you know, reducing options and thinking about option sizing and stuff like that.
So again, if you were, and just to recap that example, let's say you have, you know, you could buy a thousand shares of something for 20K, or you could buy 50 options near the money a few months out for 10K.
You're like, oh, I'm committing half the capital.
That's no big deal.
That's worth it.
I get way more exposure.
So on, you know, on a nominal basis, I always mess up these words.
I'm not sure if I'm using the right term, but you're basically with 50 shares, you're
controlling 5,000 with 50 contracts, you're controlling 5,000 shares, right? Way more
exposure. Um, that's a lot of leverage. And obviously let's say you're buying the 0.6
Delta options. That's, you know, pretty normal for near the money a few months out. So you multiply 0.6 by, you know, 5,000 shares and your position is basically
going to move like you own 3000 shares.
So that's the thing.
You know, it's really fun when the leverage is moving up for you, but it's not fun when
it's moving against you.
And, you know, especially when the shorter dated you are or the further out of the money
you are and the lower that delta value is.
And, you know, you're and you still have a pretty big dollar size position.
Yeah, I mean, that thing can hurt.
And, you know, I've definitely felt it.
It's like, oh, this chart looks good.
Then it breaks down on me and I keep holding it.
And it's all of a sudden I'm down 40 percent on these options and sizable.
So I think, you know, here's the thing.
You're like, oh, well, I'm committing
half as much money if I bought the shares.
That's that's pretty prudent of me.
It's like, no, you are literally taking on exposure three times.
If you had the shares, what would be more prudent is to calculate, you know, if
you're taking a point six Delta, you know, so what is how many contracts should
you buy so that you get the same amount
of exposure as a thousand shares?
And that's going to come out to around, you know, 15 contracts, not 50.
Um, and then all of a sudden you're getting the same amount of exposure as if you put
20 K down for, um, you know, a thousand shares in this case, you're probably putting down
$3,000 or something.
Um, and that's going to give you the same amount of exposure.
The problem is that whenever we do these options trades,
we don't think about it that way, though we should.
So I guess the point I'm making is when you're dealing with leverage,
I think a big key is to think about your position sizing
based on the downside risk and downside, you know,
whatever the downside risk is, whatever you're willing to lose, rather than thinking about it
from an upside perspective. And I think that will definitely help when it comes to options
strategy. So it's not always that the issue is, you know, is it a high IV contract? Is it
far enough out the money? Is it whatever? I think some of it is based on making sure that you're getting the proper amount of exposure.
That's what options are for.
It's for buying 15 contracts, not 50 of them just because it's less capital.
Logical.
I love that.
One thing that I want to add about options and and I also trade options
but but very minimally um actually two things I want to point out one is that I love that you
mentioned that most of your gains were from uh from actual equity and not from options trades
uh because I think like uh that's probably the most common way people make money over the long term is through equities, not through day trading or long term holding of equities, I should say, not through day trading or through options.
But the other thing to know about options is that the way I view options is that it's the equivalent of gambling in a casino, or it's very close to that,
or maybe gambling on sports would be a better metaphor
because the thing with options
is that they're designed using a formula,
which is the Black-Scholes formula,
to favor the house,
meaning the rider of the option in both directions,
whether you're buying a call or a put,
whoever's selling it to you is the one that is actually,
like the creator of the original option
is the one that is favored to win,
meaning like it's favored to expire with zero value.
In the long term, if you just continue to play options uh just randomly
they should all expire or like you you would basically be in a losing position so that that
is one way to think of it but you know does it make sense to buy options sometimes uh yes sometimes
it makes sense to uh either hedge against large bets that you've made or, or if there's like some piece of information that you're convinced that the
market is getting wrong and you feel like you,
you have it correct.
Or if you have insider knowledge,
which,
which is,
I was going to,
I was going to jump in later for my comments,
but I do want to jump in on this conversation.
So yeah,
finish your thought and then I'll jump in.
Cause I kind of disagree with you guys,
but I will jump in. Yeah. Yeah. Actually feel free to jump in on this conversation. So yeah, finish your thought and then I'll jump in because I kind of disagree with you guys, but I will jump in.
Yeah, yeah.
Actually, feel free to jump in.
I'm happy to hold the rest of my comments until I know.
No, go for it.
You can finish.
There's no rush.
Okay.
I mean, so fundamentally, I think like when I've made money in options, it's been usually
when the market like just gets something completely wrong. I went all in on options in 2019
after I ran out of money buying Tesla stock.
And I didn't want to risk any more cash,
but I wanted to have a larger position than I already did.
In Tesla, I bought a whole bunch of options
that were more than a year out, year and a half out,
if I'm not mistaken. They expired in January of 2021. And that turned out to be like one of the
best bets that I have ever made. And that one play will make sure that I generally don't lose
money on options because it put me so far ahead. But the vast majority of my options have expired worthless just uh
a good caveat to know yeah what i'll say on that and i'll segue into individual stocks i'm going
to talk about a lot of individual stocks today in the portfolio it was uh the best day of the
year for me in the portfolio today fully up 9..8%. Performance on the year hit 126% year to date.
I was literally at 107% earlier in the week.
So it's a big, big day for me.
We have 23 positions in the portfolio.
Currently, I share all my holdings and weightings in our community.
Out of those 23 positions, we have five core positions I've talked about before.
Out of those 23 positions, we have five core positions I've talked about before.
Today, 13 positions were up over 3%, and only two positions in the portfolio were red.
So just a monster, monster day.
And I'll talk, I'll get into the individual stocks there.
I've covered actually a lot of them on these spaces.
Indy is one of them, which was up 13% today, which I talked about on these spaces on June 25th with you guys.
I think I did a 20
minute speech on it. I know that because Evan bought some back then. But it's done very well.
The stock's up about 40% almost since then in two weeks. And I'll talk about a few others,
but I'm going to get to the conversation, the logical and amid we're having, because I have
some thoughts on that. I don't want to say I disagree with you guys flat out, but I do have
some more nuance to add to that.
And I'll also touch on some of the macro stuff as well
that the panel was talking about earlier,
because I also have some thoughts on that.
And I'll talk a little bit about multiple expansion in the markets,
because I've been thinking a lot about this this weekend.
I was at the airport all day today, by the way,
so I wasn't at my screens at all.
Maybe it's a sign that I wasn't at my screens at all
and didn't touch anything and the portfolio hit new highs. Maybe that's, uh, you know, the market God sending
me a sign, but anyway, um, on the options thing, I genuinely believe that 99% of new traders just
use options the completely wrong way. You know, for me, for people who follow my portfolio in our community,
I run an 85% to 90% equity weighting. So in other words, 85% to 90% of the dollars
in my portfolio are in common stock. And when I tell that to people, sometimes they're like,
what? But what about all these 500% options gainers you post? Well, those are 10 to 15% compliments to the position,
but they add leverage, right? When you have 10% of your position in options and 90% in equity,
and the stock goes up 100%, those options are going to go up a lot more than 100%.
And they add leverage and give you upside when you're right about a
stock or when you have high conviction. And so for me, generally, when I'm adding options,
compliments to positions, and to be clear, I do not have options, compliments, positions to every,
to all 23 positions in my portfolio. Most of them are just equity. But the stocks that I have higher
conviction on for immediate moves, I do leverage them with options. But here's what I do. I don't
buy options as a lottery ticket. And that's what literally, when I said 99%, that's not an
exaggeration. 99% of financial Twitter and new traders are buying options because they think,
I can make a thousand
percent on this and make a bunch of money. If you think about options like that in the first place,
you are doomed to fail. OK, and to logical earlier points, the vast majority of the money I've made,
not just this year, ever has been in common stock. So, yes, I am strongly an advocate of the idea
that the majority of your portfolio should
be in common stock. And my money's where my mouth is. You know, 90% of my money is in common stock,
right? And that's my liquid portfolio is most of my liquid net worth. So that's also most of my
net worth in common stock. So that on that point, I'm 100% with logical enemy. New and experienced
traders alike should be focused on accumulating equity in stocks that you like at good cost basis.
That's what makes you real money in the markets.
But when you're right in a big way and you're right quickly, options can really accelerate your performance if you use them correctly.
I buy options on a very strict set of conditions.
First of all, it has to be a high conviction position that I think has a
relatively immediate move. Now, when I say relatively immediate, I don't mean today or
tomorrow. I mean, within six months, I consider that a relatively immediate move in the market.
And so what I do is I buy options contracts anywhere from 60 days, sometimes to six months
out in terms of time, at least 60 days, never ever.
Like I will occasionally buy lottos with fun money that are weekly expirations,
but that's an irrelevant part of my portfolio.
There's like 0.2% allocations.
I just, you know, Oh, let's see if we can make some money.
Like that's, those are irrelevant outside of those irrelevant lottos that I
take occasionally, very occasionally.
The vast majority of my positions are swing trades, the vast majority or investments, right? Or stocks like Robinhood, where I didn't get quite as early as Mead,
but I have a $19 cost basis. And I love that stock, you know, and I'm not selling any of it.
And Centris Energy and Nebius and these stocks I'm not selling any of and their investments.
But the other 14 or 15 positions in my portfolio are all trades. They're not stocks that I'm married to,
right? Like if they break down, I'm out of them. And so on those stocks, I don't have,
I might occasionally have some options, but I don't have 10 to 15% of the position in options
leverage. I have done the higher conviction positions. And when you're right, you're right
big. Joby is a great example of this, okay? Two weeks ago, we opened a position in Joby at 952, okay?
That stock is trading 16s today, okay?
It was up 18% today.
That's a massive move in two weeks from 950 to the 18th.
It's almost doubled in two weeks, right?
I have equity at 952.
I don't want to sell the equity,
but I have an options complement on the position
with the 10 calls that are up 400%. I can
sell those calls, the leverage portion of the position, secure profits, and still have shares
with the 952 cost basis. So yes, options are hard. Yes, they are significantly more volatile.
Yes, you should not use them as lottery tickets and you should never buy like
i see guys buying options a hundred percent out of the money like you're just it might as well
wipe your ass with that money like that's that is silliness but if you buy very controlled options
exposures close to the money okay when i'm buying options if i'm if i'm looking at a $45 stock and I want to add leverage to that $45 stock, let's say I own shares at $43, okay?
Stock's $45 now and I want to add leverage, right?
Either because the stock's breaking out technically or a new catalyst is under the table.
What do I do?
Okay?
I add maybe $47 or $48 calls, not $60 calls, where if the stock chops around for two weeks you're
dead on those you're down 60 i buy four or five bucks out of the money on a 40 stock less than
10 out of the money generally occasionally if i'm feeling frisky maybe i'll go 15 of the money but
that's very rare i'm going less than 10 of the money with at least 60 days of expiration.
And in most cases, I'm buying 90 plus days of expiration. And it works for me. Like, yes,
did I make the majority of my profit on equity this year? Yes. But without the options leverage,
instead of a 126% return today, I would probably be at an 80% return year to date without
appropriate use of options leverage.
Maybe not 80, maybe like 85.
I love that additional.
Yeah.
So if you use them smartly as ways to control a larger amount of shares on a high conviction
position with less buying power, then they can be effective as tools, but not as lotto tickets,
not as, you know, yes, I have options a lot of the time that go up five or 600%, but they don't
go up five or 600% because I bought them and they went up, the stock skyrocketed that week. No,
it's because I hold them for months as part of a compliment to an equity position. Over six months, a stock can move a lot.
And if you buy options that are 5% out of the money and the stock triples, guess what? Those
options are going to be up at least 1,000%, if not more. So in the types of stocks that I operate in,
and I think me and Hamid and Logical share this in common, we like smid cap stocks. We like stocks
that can grow. We all three like that. We have different styles, but we all operate in that area.
With smid cap stocks, I know they can move quickly. Did I think Joby was going to go from 950 to 16
in two weeks? No, I didn't know that, but I knew that it could move quickly. So I added leverage
to the position, right? When I bought the stock at 952, which calls did I buy? Well,
for those that were listening to what I just said, I bought the $10 calls. Are those crazy far out of
the money with the stock at 952? No, they're 50 cents out of the money and I bought them for
October. Okay. And this is two weeks ago. How much do you think those calls are up today with
four months remaining till expiry? They're up 410% two weeks with joe be moving from 950 to 16
like okay is that attractive does it sound snazzy does it sound like gambling yes but it's not
gambling that was a that was a position where i liked the chart i liked the catalyst i liked the
thematic i was switching over from archer i'd gotten tired of the way archer's price action
was i was like i was thinking of switching to jooby. I talked to my buddy, King Tut, and me and him talked about it.
And he was like, yeah, I think you should switch.
I switched and literally the stock ripped for the next two weeks.
I didn't know that was going to happen.
Sometimes you get lucky with timing.
But I would have added the leverage either way because I know it's the type of stock
that can move 15% or 20% in a day.
And the reality is, if you're in 5% out of the money options, which is nothing,
right? And a stock goes up 20% in a day, GG's, they're deep in the money. You now have a deep
in the money, leveraged control on shares to sit with your equity position. And another thing that
people ask me all the time is, how do you sit on your shares? Like, okay, Centris Energy, my shares
are up 132%.
People are like, why didn't you sell?
Because on all of my other positions that have doubled, and Centris, I didn't have calls,
by the way.
But on Nebius and all of my other positions this year that have gone insane, I've had
options that I sold.
And so my portfolio locks profit, generates, regenerates buying power, and I keep these
shares at insanely good cost basis.
And then sometimes what happens is like what happened with Robinhood.
Okay.
Robinhood started as a position for me with no shares and just leaps.
So last year, the beginning of the year, I bought 15 and 20 calls on Robinhood expiring in December of 2024 and January of this year.
Okay.
Obviously, the stock went crazy last year.
What did I do when those expirations rolled around?
I exercised them.
I bought the 15 calls for like a buck so that I could get the shares at 16, you know, nine months later.
And I bought the 20 calls at like two bucks or something.
And the stock was like 60 bucks.
So I took shares at 16 and 22 and ended up with a 1974 cost basis on the stock.
And now I own the stock in 1974.
Like the flexibility that it gives you when you are right on high conviction positions
is tremendous.
So do I think new traders should use it?
Are they lottery tickets? No. Should you buy far out of the money? No. Should you buy weekly or daily expirations? No. But if you use smart leverage, it can be very good for your portfolio.
And it does not have to be these crazy, ridiculous calls, like super far out of the money speculative.
You can control shares for much lower costs. Like genius is a great example of this, which,
you know, it sucks. Chopped around a little bit. Had a fantastic day today. I accumulated the hell
out of those January calls. They were up like 30% today on a 5% move in the stock.
the stock. I think I'm one of the single biggest holders of those January calls on Genius.
I think I'm one of the biggest, single biggest holders of those January calls on genius.
And on a one-day move, my accumulation gets paid for instantly with a 30, 33, I think they're up
34, 35% at a point today on a four or 5% move in the underlying. And they're in the money.
They're $10 calls. These aren't $15 calls that I'm playing loosey-goosey with. They're $10 calls.
They're $0.70 in the money. They went up 40% in a day, right? So yes, it's risky. Yes,
you shouldn't allocate your whole portfolio to it or anywhere close. But smartly allocating 10%
of your portfolio on your very highest conviction positions to close to the money naked calls,
I believe is an effective way to reward yourself for conviction.
And I will never stop doing it because like it has been an accelerant for me year after year.
Like so many of my friends who say, you know, you know, I got bruised on options.
I got scared of options. I've lost money on options. Most of my options go to zero. I'm like, show me what you're buying. And to be frank, and I'm not saying
the meteorological are doing this, but my friends have showed it to me and my real life, they're
buying definitely the wrong stuff. You know, they're buying 30% out of the money calls that
expire in a month. Like, good luck. I mean, unless you get crazy lucky and just time it perfectly,
that's not going to work. You know, you have to buy time. You have to buy time,
more time than you think you need. You know, if you're, if you're adding leverage to a stock
where you own shares and you're like, you know what? I want to add a couple percent of leverage
here, right? That's smart leverage. That's not reckless leverage. I want to add two and a half
or 3% of leverage to this position because I like it a lot. And I think it can go up a lot this year. Okay. If you're
experienced, I think that's a smart decision. You can do that so simply. You don't have to,
there's no complicated position management aspect to that. You just add some calls when the stock
pulls back into support. If they don't work, cool, you risk the two and a half or 3% additional
leverage point on that position. And, you know, if you want to, if you want to be really risk
averse, you can get rid of them if the stock doesn't act the way you want to early, you know,
and take a 20 or 15% loss on a two and a half or 3 percent booster is nothing that's a nothing burger for
your portfolio especially if you're in high beta stocks that's going to be like a 0.2 percent
downtick so in in like in markets this idea that like options are a casino the reason i strongly
disagree with that is because you control your risk there's no casino in the world where you
can walk there's a blackjack table you can walk in the world and be like give me a stop loss this doesn't work so i i don't think it's a casino i don't think
it's gambling i think it's it's i think it's gambling because people don't know how to do it
like people don't know how to trade single stock equity options effectively everyone thinks it's a
ticket to get rich quick and it's not so anyway i have a lot of comments to make so i'm going to go
to the other comments but that's my thoughts on yeah i know you want to respond to that i'm going to
let you respond to it at the after because i have a lot of stuff to go over so you can jump in later
um but yeah that's my general thoughts on on options and the way i use them and how they've
been effective for me but i don't recommend them for new traders ever so if you're a new trader
just stay away but if you're experienced that trader, just stay away. But if you're
experienced, that's the emphasis here, and you know what you're doing to build conviction,
they can be very useful. Anyway, on to some positions. Joby was the star of the day today
for us. It's up 17%. Like I mentioned, we opened this at 952 earlier. I tweeted about this one as
well a couple of weeks after we opened it.
Obviously, live alerts only go out for our community members.
But I pinned that tweet at the top.
Posted that, what, 7.9.
It's July 16th today, seven days later.
Stock is trading 16.33.
It had ridiculous volume today.
Like, I mean, this thing's been going up, but like the fact that it
made this move today after, you know, going from the 11s to the 13s or 14s and five sessions
today, this thing posts 80 million volume, 80 million volume on this thing today. Um, you know,
and so now you have this insanely beautiful volume profile on a stock.
It's probably a little extended today. I mean, this has been a crazy move. Stock's almost
doubled now since our entry in two weeks. But on a pullback, this thing continues to look very
strong. I mean, 90MA is at 1279. So this thing needs that to catch up. It may just decide to
consolidate high and tight instead of pulling back. That's a lot of times what strong stocks do
rather than coming back to the moving averages, they stall and consolidate and allow the moving
averages to catch up instead. That's what this one may end up doing. But you look at the monthly
and you're like, whoa, dude, this is just one big all-time cup right you got the 17 wick
from back when this was a SPAC that's really the the all-time highs but you look at the volume on
this side of the chart on the right side of the chart and it looks pretty destined to eventually
break those 17 highs um and go even more parabolic I think the market cap at this point is getting a
little bity for my taste i did take a
couple of those calls off today but didn't take any shares off um but that one just a monster for
us today this thing started off as a three and a half percent allocation of my portfolio like most
standard positions do and as of this morning it swelled to an over 9% weighting because of the options leverage
and also because of the fact that the stock ran from 952 to 16.
So I took, I wanted to reduce that weighting.
I didn't want to have that at 10% weighting in the portfolio.
So I brought that weighting down to about a 7.3 midday today, and then it ran more into
the close.
So it swelled back up to about a 7.8 i think as of the close
so it's sitting just under shy of an eight percent position for me from the three three and a half
percent waiting two weeks ago that's pretty amazing so it's done a lot of heavy lifting
joe b has done a lot of heavy lifting for the portfolio in the last two weeks
um indy semiconductor i mentioned this earlier but we talked about I did gave a little thesis on this two weeks ago, three weeks ago now,
June 25th on these spaces. All of our spaces are recorded. You can always go back and listen to
stocks I've talked about if you want to. I know it's some work to scroll back, but June 25th,
I touched on this. And my thesis on this was pretty simple it's part of my high short interest basket um the stock when
we covered it was 329 today in the semiconductor was trading 447 so it's about almost 40 percent
higher in a couple of weeks and um the thesis on this one was simple you know a lot of impatient
or or newer traders got shaken out of this one because you know it just it consolidated like
like all good stocks do prior to the move.
But if you pay attention to the daily on this thing, it did it beautifully.
You know, it wasn't a panic consolidation.
You know, it it didn't really hold the nine, but it held this 200 day perfectly since breakout.
Right. It broke out over the 200 day late may around may really the day we
alerted it may 25th is when it started breaking out pushed up to 415 and then consolidated between
350 to the fours for what one two three four five six 79 like two weeks right and then what happens
today big push off the 90 ma stock was high as high as 13 percent today closed at about plus 12 percent
but the interesting thing is yesterday when me and evan were talking about this i mentioned indy
and i said we want that close over four and then uh evan asked me when we were into the close he
said did it close over four and i said it closed right at four and then look what happened today
big move right so is ta astrology i don't know't think so. You know, a lot of times stocks
pull back perfectly into these levels, perfectly into the highs of these consolidation areas. And
then what do they do? They rip right after. So that's not uncommon. And that's kind of set up
to look for. This is my bread and butter setup. I like a setup where you have a stock that is either pinned under the 200
day or recently emerging above the 200 day with an upsloping nine and 21 EMA, preferably crossing
the 200 day. So you don't want them just sloping up. You want them pushing through the 200 day.
That's like my favorite setup. And a bunch of stocks this year that I've longed, Nebius,
Centris, like all my best performing stocks this year have i've longed nebius centrist like all my best performing stocks
this year have been that exact exact same very simple technical setup and i did a two-part
workshop like three hours long in our community on that exact stock talk uh mp materials 500
million dollar stock offering yep they probably need the money considering all what's going on
with them but that's been a hell of a story rare earths in general have been a hell of a story, you know.
Centrist energy isn't really a rare earth, but it's my play on U.S. national security interests.
And that thing goes up every day.
I mean, it just doesn't go down.
You know, it had like two or three bad days after that stupid J.P. Morgan downgrade.
And then Stiefel and Bank of America, who, by the way, are much better shops than JP
Morgan, not just because they like my stock, but they came out and said, basically, JP
Morgan's an idiot, and this is one of the rarest assets in the world.
And I agree with them.
And, you know, I think there's just so much room for that.
I'm not a seller on Centris.
Maybe I'm stupid for that.
Maybe it'll come back to the 60s and 70s and I'll regret it.
I doubt it.
I doubt it. I doubt it.
And if it came back $100 to my cost basis, I mean, the stock's $220 today.
I bought it at 96 in May of this year.
If it did miraculously fall $100 and come back to my cost basis, I would just double down.
I'd buy the same amount I bought the first time and buy it again.
Sometimes you have conviction, you know?
And I went over yesterday,
I have a basket of four or five stocks
that I'm not fucking selling.
I don't care what happens.
I don't care if tariffs part two happen.
There's four or five stocks in my portfolio
that I'm not selling at all, no matter what.
You know, I'm keeping those for five years
and my portfolio will reflect the value of that.
You know, this is the thing,
everyone's so concerned about like what the market gave me i gotta take what the market gave me gotta lock
in some gains that's a great mentality you should do that but don't get rid of your biggest best
winners don't get rid of your best guys on your roster that's the mistake i think traders make
you know we're so occupied with this idea of market cycles and the idea that
stuff's going to go up and come back down. One thing I really encourage people to do,
this is a little case study you can do yourselves, go look at the market for the last 10 years
and go look at some of your favorite stocks, right? We've had a lot of big drawdowns in the
last 10 years in the market. We had 2022, we had the COVID crash, we had earlier this year,
we had earlier inflation tantrums.
We've had plenty of 10, 20, even 30% drawdowns
in the overall market in the last 10 years.
So you have a really good basket of market events
to base your analysis on, right?
This isn't gonna be much of an analysis even.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist for this.
Just scroll through your favorite stocks for the last 10 years
and ask yourself, hmm, is getting out of these names
and getting scared out of these names
and getting scared into profit-taking just because stuff is up a lot,
is that really a good strategy for the long term?
I don't think so.
But 80% of people on fin to it would tell you that
it is you know the most quoted phrase on fin to it is you never get go broke taking profits and i
agree you need to take profits but if you don't build core positions that you can rely on you
know investments is really the word for them that you can rely on with stocks with good cost basis
you'll always constantly be worried about getting back in.
You'll always be worried about that. You know, you'll always be in this perpetual state of,
do I have enough exposure if the markets go up 20%? I'm never worried about that because I always
own the stocks that I want to own. I never get shaken out of them. Like the core position,
I don't, nothing could shake me out of them a 30 40 drawdown nope i would just buy
more so being able to identify those is important and and that's what'll carry your portfolio and
not make you have to worry about do i have to get all cash at the end of the day or go in or go back
out or what's going to happen next or when's the recession you have to worry about any of that
because look at the last 10 years and look what stocks do look at the last 20 years look at the
last 30 years and look at some of the best performing stocks in the market they
yes they come down then they make new highs in the next bull market right like how many times i don't
know you can name any stock i'm not even going to bring up an example any any top performing stock
of the last five years how many 30 drawdowns have been? Is it higher on a five-year basis? Yes.
Period. Yes, it fell. Yes. Stocks fall all the time for a million different reasons. Like,
this is what annoys me so much about like Twitter is like this idea of like, wait,
when's the crash coming guys? Like you better get out before the crash. You're going to be a
shitty trader or investor if you don't get out before the crash. No, none of that is true.
You know, none of that is true.
Getting shaken out is what makes you a shitty trader, in my opinion.
Getting shaken out of the stocks that you love, that you want to own for years, just
because the price went down, because the market conditions changed, that is not a winning
because the market conditions change. That is not a winning formula. And the last thing I'll say on
formula.
that topic is what I've said before. Staying long is magnitudes easier than getting long.
Magnitudes. It's not even comparable. Staying long in the market is way easier.
If you have to get long, there's so many factors you have to consider am i buying at the
top am i buying at the highs the stocks ran a lot oh my god it's doubled over the past two years
you know how many stocks double on a two-year basis like 10 times in a row that happens like
all the time so what a stock's doubled so it's like oh i don't want to touch like it's doubled
you know the last two years that that's actually usually bullish not bearish you know and on this on this idea of like when is the next correction
gonna come it's gonna come guys it'll fucking come stop worrying about when it's gonna be
the reality is is that think about what's happened in the market in terms of the accelerants to
multiple expansion not just will stocks go up, but think about the
conditions we're in right now. We just passed a bill where every child in America is getting
$1,000 in the stock market. We have endless fiscal spending. There's no desire to cut
fiscal spending at all, even though we thought this administration would do it. They've tossed
that idea out the window. Record military spending, record government spending, record everything, right? So the government's dumping cash into the economy. We know that to
be true. We know that the stock market is becoming even more important to every solitary citizen
because every baby born in America is going to get a thousand bucks in it. So if the stock market
was important to the Fed last year, it just became at least 20% more important.
Because now Americans who never own stocks own them just by virtue of having a kid.
So now an entire category of people in this country who are unaffected by the stock market, who, by the way, whose votes were unaffected by the stock market, their votes will now be affected
by the stock market. What do you think that means for relative importance of stocks to the U.S.
government? It means stocks go up. That's what that means. And on top of all of this,
the next Fed chair is going to be a mega-dub and is going to print into oblivion and cut rates.
And we know that basically to be a certainty, right?
Like, what would you place the likelihood
that Trump is going to appoint a hawk?
I would place it at 0%, right?
So if the likelihood that Trump's going to appoint a hawk
is 0%, and we may get the most dovish Fed chair
in Federal Reserve history,
and stocks are at all-time highs,
and Bitcoin is at all-time highs,
there's $60 trillion
on the sideline. Every American now owns stocks. You think multiples shouldn't expand?
I think they should. I think they should expand a lot, actually. And I've been the guy for the
last five years that every sign of caution, except for the tariffs this year, that's when I was bearish because those tariffs were really bad.
But we've come a long way since then. But outside of the tariff moment in February this year, for the people who have listened to the show, I have constantly been the guy that has thrown caution to the wind and said higher, higher, higher.
And what I'm saying again today is, is that the secular conditions for the markets to go exponentially higher in the next 10 years, I think, are very favorable.
And that's why these month-to-month volatility things just have not bothered me.
Because I'm looking at the bigger picture here, and what I see is liquidity galore from every angle.
From rates, from money on the sidelines, from $1,000 accounts to every
crying baby in America. How is that bearish? I just don't understand. I cannot wrap my mind
around that being bearish. No one could convince me of that. And trust me, I've played devil's
advocate. I've thought about like, hey, we're spending a lot of money, government debt's bad.
The only bad thing I can think of is that some random credit event happens, which
is always a possibility anyway.
So why even consider it?
Or that there's some kind of exogenous shock to the Treasury markets as a result of uncontrolled
US spending and debt.
But both of those are things that I don't know
if they happen, when they're going to happen. And as a consequence of that, it to me feels foolish
to even concern myself with attempting to find out. I'll get out of the way when the price tells
me to get out of the way. And it's that simple. Like I will continually say that here repeatedly.
And I know it's a boring take. It's not a nuanced take. But the reality is, is the nuanced and complicated takes are usually the wrong ones.
In my experience, you know, you thinking as simply as possible about scenarios has been a great ally to me in markets.
and not getting overly high on the highs or overly low on the lows.
Look, I have red days in my portfolio too.
I know it's hard to believe with the performance we've had this year,
but I have red days too.
Everyone does.
You have pullbacks in your portfolio.
Some days everything's not up.
And guess what?
Those are the days that distinguish your skill, not the up days.
The days that distinguish your skill is how your emotion
and handling of volatility is when your stocks are red. If you're like flippant and,
I don't want to say a pussy, but if you're like flippant and soft on those kind of days
and really unsure and uncertain, you own the wrong things. Or you're not doing enough work on your positions,
one of the two. Or you just aren't experienced enough, I guess one of the three. But those are
the only three outcomes. If on red days, you're like, shifting around in your chair and checking
your portfolio constantly. And like, what do I need to cut? And you're like rubbing, if that's
you on red days,
you're not doing enough work. You either don't know what you own well enough. You don't have
a good enough grasp on how to read a chart or identify like a low volume pullback or a real
technical breakdown, or you're just emotionally and psychologically, you know, not fit for the markets. And some people are that way.
Some people have really weak stomachs and can't handle volatility. And for those people,
my advice has been the same on the show for years. Just buy an index and chill. Buy,
buy and chill. If you're one of those people whose stomach curls and you can't handle this,
you can't handle that, you can't handle managing individual stocks. Just buy, spy and chill and don't worry about any of this crap.
But, you know, if you want to play this game, this dirty, in the mud game of stock picking and thematic and catalyst trading and, you know, investing in hot sectors, you want to play that game?
You can't handle the heat.
You got to get out of the kitchen.
So, you know, you have to be able
to look volatility in the face and be like yeah i know what i own i know what i own the charts look
fine yeah maybe there's some daily breakdowns here the amount of people i've seen this year
getting shaken out of amazing stocks on daily breakdowns without checking the weekly and
monthly charts i can't even. It's all over my feet
every day. Oh, stock breaking down here, getting out, thing rips 20% the next week. Like, again,
this isn't going to happen repeatedly. But I'm saying I've, these are just examples of like,
very obvious mistakes I've seen. Like, if you have a high conviction stock, and the daily chart looks
ugly, or I should say starts to look ugly let's say it breaks down
below the 9 and 21 ema if that's your panic sell signal you're not going to hold any stocks for
for long enough to see real material compounding if you just sell at any time of any stocks below
a daily 9 and 21 ema you're you're not going to hold anything for for for real gains you know
you might catch some little moves you're not going to hold anything for real gains. You might catch some little moves. You're not going to hold anything
for real gains if you treat it that way. So I don't know. I'm just trying to teach lessons on
how I think people can compound and reward themselves for being in the markets because
people are really bad at compounding. People are really bad at holding. People are really bad at
not getting shaken out. And these are things that you can teach yourself to not do through literacy,
through technical literacy, through fundamental literacy.
And most importantly, through knowing what you own, which requires work, which requires not just spoon feeding the shit that you see on your Twitter feed.
If you're doing that, you're never going to make it because you're not going to know.
You know, I got this idea from somebody. It's good. The chart looks good to me. I'm going to buy it.
And then you just hold it aimlessly and you don't even know like what the potential is
or what the benchmarks are to watch out for that company.
You're just lost.
You're just holding the stock like without any semblance of an idea of where it could
go or what it could do.
You're not going to be successful doing that.
So, you know, these are the reason I'm so emphatic about these things, guys, is because
it frustrates me seeing new traders lose money on things that can be easily avoided with a little bit of education.
Just a little bit.
Sometimes when I talk about charts rapidly like this or go through stocks, people are like, oh, how do you know all this stuff?
The reality is most of the stuff I'm talking about is really basic cardinal trading information.
basic cardinal trading information. Like you could spend one weekend, one weekend and,
and learn everything about basic charting, everything with all free information. You
don't even have to sign up to our community to do it. We have some great resources, but
don't even, don't even sign up to our community to do that. Go to YouTube,
find free videos of the concepts you don't understand, spend a weekend and learn,
just learn how to read a chart,
just the basics without any indicators,
you know,
and then graduate to learning how to read balance sheet and learning how to
integrate this information and you'll become better over time.
But anyway,
back to some individual stocks centrist.
I talked about Kratos,
another monster day for us.
Indy,
Joby,
Cypher,
CRISPR, riots. I mean, I can't even go over all these, but it was just a
crazy day. And I think stock picking continues to be rewarded in this market. Obviously, it was a
big day for a lot of stocks, but stock picking continues to be rewarded here. And what I will
say I noticed broadly today, and this is true because my portfolio
is concentrated in these names i have a lot of high short interest stocks in my portfolio currently
and what i noticed today is a lot of the best performers on the day were those high short
interest stocks and what i think that is the market telling you is that uh there's too much
short interest on the smid caps.
Lizanne Saunders, who's one of my favorite institutional people ever.
I know we've tried to have her on the show before.
I think maybe we will have her one day, hopefully.
But she's amazing.
And I don't know if for those of you who don't follow her, you should follow her.
She doesn't post a lot of individual stock stuff,
but she posts great insights about the market.
But she posted like three days ago and said that net institutional short positioning on uh smid cap stocks is its
highest ever not in 10 years 20 years 30 years highest ever and some people listen to my comments
attentively some people don't but i know i say a lot of stuff on these spaces. But a few weeks ago, I said something very specific.
And some of you might remember this.
But I said, I was scrolling through some charts on my review this weekend.
This is like two weekends ago on this show.
I said this.
So I was scrolling through my charts on this review weekend.
And I was shocked at how many stocks I saw with 20% to 30% short interest.
I was talking about this two weeks ago. And then
Liz posted that stat four days ago, and that corroborated my anecdote, right? Because I was
talking about it from an anecdotal standpoint. I was saying, hey, the smid caps that I'm going
through are like all 20 to 30% short. This is a problem for the short and then liz goes yeah it's its highest positioning
ever that's a kettle in my opinion and if today's action says anything i think it just started
popping i think there will be if equity if broader market conditions hold up over the next three
months i think you will see an insane short squeeze in this mid cap baskets. Insane.
And so I'm staying positioned in those.
And I have a good cushion on a lot of them now.
You know,
my names like Indy and sphere and riot and cypher.
These are all 20 to 30% short.
Joby was,
I don't know what it is now after this almost a hundred percent move, but all these names that I've talked about in the last few weeks on the show
are all high short interest names. Even you, you, you, you, which I touched on, which I didn't get my entry on,
but that thing's basically doubled. You look at Jenny. Jenny's actually not the only one that's
not high short interest in my portfolio. CRISPR, which we got in really early.
But almost everything in my portfolio outside of my core positions,
because my core positions are quality stocks, Kratos, Centris Energy, Jenny, Robinhood.
These don't have high short interest because they're my core positions. They're good companies.
But my trades do have high short interest.
And that's by design because I want them to move quickly.
Right?
People wonder, why do you target short interest?
Isn't that a sign of a poor quality company? No, no, it is not. That's a huge misunderstanding,
too, about short interest. People don't get this. You know, people think, oh, stocks 20 to 30 percent
float is short. It must be a terrible stock. Nope. What that usually means is that the narrative is either out of favor
or something bad happened for the stock a few weeks ago or a month ago, and the positioning
has settled in, which means shorts got comfortable with the stock. Those are stocks I like to attack,
not stay away from, because in my view view it creates a favorable risk reward now why does it do that
well for multiple reasons a high short interest generally indicates expectations are low but b
it's also a mechanical advantage to stock strength right because if you get good news
on a high short interest stock, what happens?
Well, first of all, it goes up a lot, right?
Because some portion of the shorts are covering the stock.
And for those new traders in the audience, covering the stock means you have to buy the stock.
So that's one element of it, right?
Shorts covering on good news.
But then you also have buyers on good news too, right?
New entrants to the stock who are just outright buying it because they like the news.
This is why I talk about a lot of these principles on the show. I categorize myself as a catalyst
trader, but at times I'm a very specific form of catalyst trader, which is that I focus on
high short interest stocks with a catalyst, right? So when I'm looking at these catalysts in the morning,
and I do a pre-market call for our members every morning, I didn't do it this morning because I was
at the airport, but every morning I do a pre-market call for our members. And what I do is I go over
the catalyst for the day that I like. When I'm reviewing those catalysts for myself,
and I'm going through them and trying to filter and say, hey, which stock out of these catalysts can make a real move?
One of the first things I check is what is the short interest on the free flow, right?
I have an Ortex subscription, which I think is the best source.
It's pretty hard to get a completely accurate source.
Sometimes they're lagging.
Short interest is hard to track to a T live.
But they do a really good job of it. I think they do better than the other services. I've been subscribed to a bunch. I'm not sponsored by
Ortex. I'm just, that's what I use. But anyway, I check Ortex and check the short interest. And
if it's 20 plus percent, that significantly increases my desire to buy the stock in and of
itself. Right? Because again, the very first thing I do, I've talked about this a million times with you guys,
the very first thing I do is identify the catalyst
and decide if it's a worthy catalyst.
If I've made the decision that it's a worthy catalyst,
then I go look at the short interest.
If I have a stock that has a great catalyst
and 20% of the float is short,
I'm almost always buying it.
Like almost always,
I'm at least taking a 3.5% position.
It's not going to work every time.
Of course not.
Nothing works every time.
But it works for me, the types of technical setups that I look at.
Stock emerging above the 200-day or pinned under the 200-day with 20% plus short interest
with a quality catalyst and a hot theme.
There are four qualifications.
There's a technical qualification, which is the technical setup. short interest with a quality catalyst in a hot theme. There are four qualifications, right?
There's a technical qualification, which is the technical setup. There's a mechanical qualification,
which is the short interest. There's a fundamental qualification, which is the catalyst. And there's a thematic qualification, which is, is the stock in a hot or favorable theme? If it checks all four
of those baskets, there's no way I'm not, like, not no way.
There's a less than 10% chance I'm not buying it, you know. And that review process takes me,
I mean, obviously because of my experience level with Catalyst, I can do it more quickly,
but that process per stock probably takes me about 25 minutes in the morning.
Once I've decided, hey, this is a good Catalyst, the rest of the process takes me about 25 minutes in the morning. Once I've decided, hey, this is a good
catalyst, the rest of the process takes me about 25 minutes. So it doesn't take me a tremendous
amount of time to make that decision. But when I do make that decision, I go to our community and
say, hey, guys, I'm buying this stock. It's X percent short. Stock's pinned under the 200-day
moving average. It's in this theme. I like it. It's going to move. And more often than not,
you can see by my performance, it does. And the proof is in the pudding, right? Like all this
stuff I talked to you about, you guys, a lot of people talk about strategies, a lot of people,
okay? Not many of them show you if their strategy is working. I show you if my strategy is working.
I show you my performance. I showed you my performance last year.
We did 260%.
The index did 26 or whatever.
This year I'm up 126%.
The index is up seven.
Okay, and the year's not over.
So yeah, might I give a little bit back into the year,
end of the year if we pull back?
Sure.
But even if I close this year with 80%, whatever.
I mean, even I'm just assuming, let's say I have a massive drawdown from here and fall from 130% on the year to 80%. Is that a bad year? No. It's a fantastic year. So I'm sitting pretty at this point. I'm fine. And all of the things that I do, everything that I do is the shit that I ran about to you guys all day, every day, but the principles of trading and how I enter positions and why I enter them.
So, you know, I know some of you are like, oh, you know, Stock Talk is saying this stuff. He said
this stuff last week. If you really pay attention to what I'm saying, I'm talking about very specific
concepts that will help you if you are willing to learn, right? If it doesn't just go in one
year and out the other year, if you listen to these check boxes I do, I talk about these check boxes with you guys all the time, and you
integrate it into your process, you let me know how it goes. Because we have thousands of members
who have adopted my process over the years, and there's a reason they've been subscribed for
since the beginning of the community, because they have built their own styles from it
you know using these principles they did a lot of our members don't trade you know the same
stocks i do some of our members will trade some of the stocks i trade they'll have other stocks
in their portfolio which is how it should be and you know they'll find their own winning
opportunities you know i remember tag me like last week say hey look i found a stock pinned
under the 200 day moving average with your type of setup.
It was highly shorted.
I longed it.
I'm up 30%.
I'm like, great.
That's the goal.
That's why I go on these rants.
I go on these rants that hopefully some of you will be like, oh, you know what?
That's interesting.
I'm going to try that.
I'm going to try integrating that into my process and see if it works for me.
And let me know.
You guys can tag me on Twitter.
Let me know.
Try some of these things.
Try ranking your positions by conviction.
Try making a checkbox for catalyst, theme, technical relevance.
Try making these things and see.
See if your stock picking gets better.
I'll bet you it does.
I'll bet you it does.
And I made a post about this yesterday.
This is the last thing I'll say on this topic.
And we can go back to the panel or you guys can throw some questions at me or whatever we want to do.
But I posted yesterday and I said the people that say everything is in the chart and the people that say everything is on the balance sheet are both wrong.
And I do truly believe that.
I don't think everything is in the chart.
I don't think everything is on the balance sheet. I think elite stock picking, great stock picking, stock picking that's durable over bear markets, bull markets,
over multi-year basis is that type of stock picking comes from an understanding of both
and an ability to leverage your skills in both. If you're a great fundamental analyst who knows
how to spot an undervalued company, but you don't know the first thing about reading a chart,
you will do better if you learn to read a chart. If you're a great technical analyst who's killing
it, who all you look at is high tight flags and wedge breakouts, and you're doing very well,
great. You would do even better if you understood the context of those stocks and the themes of
those stocks. I see great technical traders all the time, some of the best stocks in the market, and they sell them after a 5% move.
And I'm like, buddy, that's a great, great stock you just bought there.
You know, do you even know what they're doing?
Do you even know what happened last week for them?
Did you see the volume?
Do you know why that volume came in?
You know, yeah, you see accumulation volume, but do you know what it's about?
Because that matters.
That matters to your conviction level to be able to hold it. You know, if I was purely trading it technically, I would have bought
Centris Energy at 96 and sold it at 115 at the first resistance. Is that a nice trade? Yeah.
But, you know, is it the type of trade it's been for me where the stock went from a 5%
weighting to the biggest weighting in my portfolio in a month?
No, it would not have been that move. But that move happened because I was like,
I know what this company is and I know how their thematic relevance is, so I'm not going to sell it.
And that's the difference. That's what makes the difference, is that small acknowledgement of saying this is just a trade or this is something bigger and as a result of being
something bigger i'm going to manage it differently and once you start making that
distinction you're off to the races you know the market is your oyster once you start learning how
to do that and the reality is most people can't because they get so occupied with you know this
like some every i feel like every new trader has this goal of like wanting to make a million bucks. You know, I didn't make my first million bucks off of some random options
that came in my way and blew up my account. No, I made my first million bucks by holding
stocks for a really long time. That's it. That's it. You know, like there was nothing else to it there's nothing i did every day
i just bought tesla and amazon in 2020 yeah 2015 2016 that was it and sometimes it's that easy guys
and markets aren't hard from that perspective just buy a good stock understand why it's a good stock
have those checklists and batten down the hatches.
But yeah, that's it for me today.
Amazing day for the portfolio.
Like I said, I don't have a lot of 10% up days
because I have 23 stocks,
but today was a 9.8% up day and just an awesome day for me.
So very, very happy.
A little bummed about the wedding getting postponed.
I was looking forward to that. I was looking forward to that.
I was looking forward to enjoying myself in Banff,
so that's a bummer, but
all's well that ends up.
Did you get a read on those Canadian timber
features for us?
Yeah, some
on-site information.
Yeah, boots on the ground.
Timber trucks coming down the hill.
Yeah, start counting them.
I'll do
that I'll take a video too and we should post live we should post live
Canadian timber futures trading live stream and it's just a video of trucks
coming down the hill full of timber if you were just counting them and bidding
contracts in the meantime you know long long long that's three trucks three
trucks in the last 20 seconds.
Anyway, that would be fun. It's like back in Billions
where they're tracking
the CEO's car
and where they're driving and stuff like that.
Do you remember during the SPAC
era when they were following the planes of all
the SPAC sponsors? Do you remember that?
Oh my god. I do.
That was so crazy. The CCv planes oh my god that was
what a time to be alive that was so good that was like flight aware everybody was on flight
aware search and tell numbers yeah that's honestly so smart though like i don't know if anyone heard
this joke but like when we're doing that with the pentagon pizza place did anyone see them that
whole thing i'm sure most people saw that it was super viral but uh there's like a pizza place that serves to
the pentagon so people were like watching it and like hey if the pentagon guys are there after
hours they're gonna be ordering a lot of pizza and one guy was like i'm gonna go short futures
and then order a bunch of pizza from that place like thousands of pizza and they go short futures and i was like dude that is
brilliant like that is high level thinking dude i don't even know if that qualifies as illegal
would that would that qualify as illegal to do that to order a bunch of pizza from a place
and then i would think i would think there would be some market manipulation questions
right here's the thing.
If your thought process is, I'm going to go in here and manipulate the market, so here's how I'm going to do it, you're probably planning a losing game to try and justify it.
That's true.
Maybe he didn't say that.
Maybe he was just like, yo, I was hungry, and this is the best pizza place, and I just happen to be short futures at the same time.
I don't know.
That made me laugh like super hard like i laughed out loud when i saw
that post when the guy was like yeah i'm gonna order twelve thousand dollars of pizza from this
place and then go short future yikes yeah listen there's all types of strategies adam what's the
uh most innovative strategy you've seen people do for research.
If we have you up here.
I see, yeah, there you are.
Yep, I'm sorry, I just got on.
How are you guys doing?
You know what we were talking about?
No, I missed out. I don't know if you heard about this,
but like this pizza place near the Pentagon,
did you hear about it?
Oh, God, yeah.
They monitor the orders.
Yeah, I was talking about this guy that posted a tweet, a joke,
and he said he was going to short futures and then order a bunch of pizza from the place.
Oh God.
Yeah.
You could put that into an ETF.
The pizza with short futures fund.
Short Pentagon pizza place.
I love it. Thanks for having me on, guys. I'm. I love it.
Thanks for having me on, guys.
I'm sorry I was late.
I just got off the phone or the Zoom with the brain trust for the AIS Investment Committee,
John McNeil and Sonny Madra, just absorbing all the wisdom in the AI space.
So just so much going on in that industry.
It's just incredible. All the news,
all the build-outs that are happening, it's just incredible, the investments that are being made
there. Well, shout out to them because AIS up 16.9% on the year now. And I noticed that the AUM
is starting to move on it too. Yeah, it's good to see. I mean, it's a crowded space. There's probably 20 ETFs out there that
have slapped the AI label on their name. Whether they are actually AI or not, we can debate a lot
of them. But certainly, I think investors are starting to take notice, right? I mean, we focus
on the infrastructure, right? The data centers, the semiconductors, really the picks and shovels for the AI economy.
And, you know, certainly the performance has been there, but I think the kind of the message
of what we're actually trying to achieve from an investment strategy perspective
is really starting to resonate. So it's nice to see.
Yeah, 100%. So I'll roll us into this. Welcoming back Adam Patti from the VistaShares team
to the stage. He's got a long investing career and is surrounded by some amazing investors
who he just mentioned, former president of Tesla, current president of Grok,
items along those lines. So really excited to get into this. And if you're in the audience,
I'm just going to run through real quick. I've been working with Adam specifically on the ETF
side, the four tickers that we're going to talk about today quick um been working with adam specifically on the etf side the four
tickers that we're going to talk about today if you just want to note them down on your watch list
if you're listening because we are going to walk through these the first one that we just mentioned
already was a is that is a artificial intelligence super cycle etf it's up 44 last three months
and up 17 year to date continuing to outperform pretty nicely. I know that's one of StockTalk's
favorites. We've talked about it a good amount. Their most popular ETF is OMAH, that's O-M-A-H,
and that one has just been moving over 360 million AUM. Tons of interest continues to come
into that one. QUSA is the third. It's pretty similar in the way that they're looking for that
income side of the ETF. I know so many people are leaning towards their income ETFs these days.
They become more and more popular. And then the last one, which we'll actually start out with
talking about today, is WILD, which just went straight up today and was up 4.6% on the day,
new all-time highs on WILD's now up almost 10 year to date of
course year to date only being for wild since june 4th when you launched it so really really nice up
11 in the past month so let's kick it off with wild which had a huge day here today and you know
you've had some rotation i believe since we last talked about it and i think that that was good it
was really cool to see that there was just some moves and some new things coming into the mix i believe one of the the new names that came in was
it tem tempest ai yes correct exactly and you know that's that's obviously going to help out today
because tempest was up seven percent and so this was double leverage that as a quarter of it or
a 20 of it and so you get 14% of a move there.
So that's pretty awesome.
But yeah, Adam, I'll turn it over to you
if you just wanna walk through what you've been seeing there
and maybe talk us through a little bit
of the rebalancing on Wild as well.
Yeah, Wild is gonna be a great product.
I'm really excited about this
because investors have been using single stock leveraged ETFs
to express their view, right?
So they really like Tesla,
they'll buy the Tesla XX ETF, NVIDIA, whatever it is. Now we all know it's hard to their view, right? So they really like Tesla, they'll buy the Tesla double X ETF,
NVIDIA, whatever it is. Now we all know it's hard to pick stocks, right? So what we did is we went into the institutional market and tried to understand how they get their high beta exposure.
And as it turns out, you know, institutional investors don't necessarily want to pick a
single stock, but they want that exposure. So they'll pick a, you know, a basket of them.
So what we did very simply is we created a methodology that looks to see where investors are putting their dollars.
So we're picking, quote, the hottest five traded companies every month.
So we rebalanced three weeks ago.
And now we have Meta, Google, AMD, Apple, and Tempest.
So those are the five stocks that are in our portfolio.
And we'll rebalance again.
I think it's on the 28th, so the end of this month.
So at the end of every month, we're rebalancing.
And very simply, look, I mean, narratives drive stock market returns more so now than ever before.
So you really want to follow the money.
So investors are piling money into certain stocks, you know, you want to
at least take a look at them.
So we're looking at stocks that have, so we're looking at the universe of single stock leveraged
ETFs.
And we're trying to determine, you know, which ones have the most AUM assets under management
and which ones are growing their assets under management the fastest.
So we're looking at those dollar trends of where investors are putting their money um to try to
you know harness the animal spirits of the market that's why we called it the animal spirits etf and
you know that's what really what we're doing and and it's certainly bearing out um i think it's
going to take a little while for investors to understand what we're doing um because it's not
as simple as just a single stock levered ETF.
We do have those five in there, which switch monthly, but it's five stocks rotated monthly, levered 2x, reset daily.
So we're resetting the leverage every day and their performance is great.
So I think as investors really understand what we're doing here, I think this product is going to be a really, really successful product.
Yeah, it is really interesting to me.
I did notice that you mentioned Apple had made its way in.
Is that correct?
Correct.
AMD, Apple, Tempest, Google and Meta.
Evan, what do you think of this means that Apple was one of the top five
in both, you know, upside movement as well as
AUM and coming into leveraged Apple ETFs.
Are we seeing a bit of a swing?
Well, you saw it go from like the 200 up to the 210, 215.
We're running into the period.
You're probably about a month, month and a half away from us talking about,
hey, there's new iPhones are coming out at a historic run up into it.
So I'm not totally surprised if Apple was ever going to do it.
This would be a good time for it.
And I might have some Apple calls right now.
And to be clear, we're not buying the double levered ETFs.
We're just using them as data points.
So we're buying the underlying securities.
I just wanted to make that clear,
because that's an important point.
Yeah, 100%.
And again, for those who haven't seen Wild before,
the selection process is looking at
all of the double leverage ETFs out there, looking at which names have the most AUM, as well as the
most growth month over month in assets, and then plotting that on a dot plot, selecting the top
five on that top right side of the chart, and then buying the underlying securities and then
leveraging that up to X.
And that's where you're every month, you're going to get a new set of names, most likely
in my guess, right?
Some getting taken out, piece along those lines, and it'll continue to move.
So for example, Tesla, which had been in it, is no longer in it this month, right?
Because Tesla did not have a strong performance.
So it moved out of there and it was replaced by some of these
other names. So you always consistently, yeah, go for it. No, no, no, you're a hundred percent
correct. And, you know, this is a great way to play that high beta, right? So instead of picking
one stock and hoping that you got it right, because those double levered ETFs, if you're wrong,
you're down five percent immediately, right? So at least here, you've got a portfolio approach to it,
which, you know, it really,
it tempers your downside to some extent.
Of course, it tempers your upside
because if, you know, you're buying Tesla
and Tesla's up 10% one day and you're double levered,
you're making 20%, but it can go the other way as well.
So I think over time, what you're gonna see
is the portfolio approach.
It's concentrated portfolio,
but the portfolio approach will outperform, you know,
most single names over time because, you know because you're getting that buffer on the downside as well as on the upside.
Super cool. Super cool.
I want to definitely circle around, keep hitting on a couple of these other items.
I think one of the things that is really interesting right now, the reason that I put kind of like using ETFs to manage risk in the top of the space was more specific to OMAH and QUSA. I feel like right now, we're having a
lot of volatility in these markets and that's super beneficial for names like these. And I
think that's why we're seeing a gravitation towards these income products, right? Where
people don't necessarily need to see a giant jump in the underlying stock in order to still be bringing
in income. So maybe you can talk through, because it seems like people are really gravitating
towards these. And I can talk about performance and stuff like that, but I'll let you first talk
about kind of why these are attractive to people at all-time highs. Yeah. I mean, that's, you know,
look, you nailed it. I mean, it's in volatile markets, investors want certainty and, you know,
there's not much that's certain in volatile markets.
So, you know, people are gravitating towards, you know, locking in a robust income stream
with a high quality portfolio of equities that should appreciate over time.
So you look at QUSA, for instance, that is a, you know, it's USA quality stocks.
It's 27 stocks.
The way we choose them is we look at the Russell 1000,
and then we score the Russell 1000 based on high profitability, low debt, and stable earnings
growth. So the companies that have the highest scores among those three factors make the
portfolio. So it's a traditional quality factor tilted portfolio that, you know, tends to do very well in volatile
markets. And, you know, so we're really excited for that one, particularly given how the markets
are going. Then of course, you know, our big one, OMAH, Omaha has just been going gangbusters.
And that's, you know, that's invest like Warren Buffett, but with 15% income, both QUSA and Omaha
have a core equity portfolio. So Omaha's portfolio is Berkshire B plus the top 20 holdings of Berkshire Hathaway.
So it's Warren Buffett's top picks.
And QUSA is what I just described in terms of the quality picks.
But both of them have a target 15 options income strategy on top of it, where we pay
out 1.25% per month to make that 15% annually.
So both portfolios are designed to appreciate over time. where we pay out 1.25% per month to make that 15% annually. So, you know, it's, they're both
portfolios are designed to appreciate over time. But along the way, you're getting that 1.25%
from the options income, which is, you know, been very attractive. And, you know, Omaha launched in
March, and we paid out that 125 every month. And QUSA is newer. We launched it in May. So it's only been two months.
This will be our third month paying that out, but it's a,
it's a great core portfolio holding. And, and of course,
when you have an option strategy, you know,
the equity portfolio won't go up as, as, as much as, you know,
without the options, right?
The options kind of temper that upside because there's no free lunch, but you know, you should be able to get 70 to 75% of the upside. And, you know, without the options, right? The options kind of temper that upside because there's no free lunch.
But, you know, you should be able to get 70 to 75% of the upside and, you know,
you control your downside risk a little bit.
You're getting about 90% of the downside
versus a portfolio of just the equities.
Yeah, smartly put.
I'm going to rotate around this panel.
I've been talking a bunch, stock talk.
I'll turn it over to you if you want to dig into some of these,
any questions you have. If you want to talk AIS, feel free to, but curious on what's on your panel. I've been talking a bunch, stock talk. I'll turn it over to you if you want to dig into some of these, any questions you have.
If you want to talk AIS,
feel free to,
but curious on what's on your mind.
About the markets in general
or about AIS particularly?
Well, if you want to touch on
any of these four ETFs
or I know that usually
you lean into AIS.
Yeah, it's just more,
it's more my wheelhouse,
you know, I mean,
I think, like I said,
I think, you know,
I don't say this just because we work with Vista,
but I do think Adam and his team are very, very smart
at having products with a purpose, which is what I like to see.
Because let's be real, Adam, you know this too.
There's a lot of just wasteful ETFs out there.
There's just a high volume of ETFs that come online
that don't really serve a purpose.
So yeah, I think they all serve a great purpose. the omaha one is great for for people that want to get that
exposure in a little bit more of a fashioned way instead of a broader way and like you said it's
still a portfolio based approach you know uh but obviously for me you guys know how i am i'm a tech
and an ai and and you know those types of stocks focus guys so yeah that's been sort of my favorite
one to look at and like you said it's doing very well this year outperforming the market and um i
like the basket like i like the way that they've built it and the way they're sort of switching
in and out based on the things that are changing you know right now there's a big semi concentration
there i frankly think that's smart because the semi charts look so good you know we picked up
some i picked up some,
I picked up some smaller caps on my exposure a few weeks ago and some short interest names. So yeah, I like it. I like the thinking.
I think the people that are consulting with it are smart and are doing it
well. And yeah, there's, there's just really kind of products for everyone,
which is my favorite part about it.
And the biggest thing is products of the purpose. Cause like I said,
most ETFs are just like, they're not really serving a good, a great purpose, but you know,
these are, I think, and we talk a lot about how time it takes for individual stock picking,
you know, for me personally, I monitor these things and trade them sometimes. And obviously
I'm more of a single stock focused guy, but that's also cause you know, I, I build my own
portfolio cause I have experience with it.
But for those that don't have experience and like kind of struggle with like building baskets of exposure, that's what these types of products can be useful for for you to say, hey, you know, I want to grab some exposure to this thematic, but I don't know which stocks to buy. So I pick up one of these concentrated ETFs with, you know, a basket of diversified enough exposures and use that to get the beta from that theme into my portfolio.
And if you want to get rid of it or, you know, you're like, oh, I only want it for a few months, you can do that, too.
You know, or if you want it for longer than that, you can do that too so i think it gives a lot of flexibility to traders who may not be you know who may not have decades of experience and want to build and pick their
own portfolios you know i think traders who are not only newer but even traders who maybe have a
few years of experience who say you know i either don't have it's either a matter of experience or
time right is what i'm saying and sometimes you either don't have the time or you don't have the
experience to stock pick and that's what these products are useful for that's kind of how i'd right is what i'm saying and sometimes you either don't have the time or you don't have the experience
to stock pick and that's what these products are useful for that's kind of how i'd put it in a
nutshell yeah i agree with you and i agree with what you're saying about the etf market there's
just so many etfs out there that you know are mislabeled right and that's really how this whole
that's how vista shares came about i mean john mcneil you know he's the former president of
tesla who's my partner he you know he was trying to find an ai etf to buy and he looked at the ai etfs and said wait a minute these aren't ai etfs they're you
know it's meta netflix and tencent and you know companies like that and salesforce yeah those
companies are using ai they're investing in ai but if you want to get ai exposure at least in the next
three to five years you need the infrastructure plays that's where the profits are that's where
all these when you know when amazon or meta comes out and says they're investing, you know, a hundred
billion dollars somewhere, where is it going? It's going into companies like Vertiv, which are,
you know, Vertiv is the, you know, the largest producer of cooling systems for AI data centers.
And most people wouldn't think of that. So, you know, those are the types of companies we're
looking to identify and put in the portfolio. And frankly, I'm really fortunate.
I mean, I know some about the AI business, but, you know, having someone like John McNeil and Sonny Madra, who's the president of Grok, I mean, they're two of the smartest AI guys on the planet.
And, you know, again, I just got off the phone with them going over the portfolio.
And, you know, they know what's going on because they're in it every day.
I mean, John currently is on the board of General Motors.
He's vice chairman of their autonomous vehicle division.
So, you know, they're dealing with AI issues.
And Sonny, you know, Grok is part of that whole humane project down in Saudi Arabia,
$1.5 billion project for Grok to build data centers for inference down in Saudi Arabia.
So they're building data centers.
They're doing it daily.
They know the companies that have the technologies that are winning.
They see the trends.
I mean, I was talking about, you know, today with, you know, with Sunny, we're talking
about the networking business and how it's becoming more important.
And, you know, the 800 plus speed networking devices, you know, from Broadcom and Cisco
and, you know, all these
things that most people probably just wouldn't know. And so I always encourage investors to,
you know, build a portfolio of ETFs, you know, that you believe in, you know, core holdings,
as well as some thematics like an AIS, a core holding like a QUSA. But then if you really have
conviction around a specific stock, you can always show that conviction by buying that as well, kind of overweight or express your views.
But at least you have that core exposure because you might have the exposure right in terms of the thematic, the theme itself.
Like you believe AI is going to be doing really well over time. Great. But if you pick a single stock, you might get that wrong.
but if you pick a single stock, you might get that wrong. So get the exposure and then express
your views on single stocks, at least for most investors, to your point. People like yourself
who have the time and the experience to do it full-time or close to full-time and really
understand how these things trade, single stocks are a more viable option for sure.
Yeah, definitely. And like I said,
it's not even just always
the inexperienced people.
It's also, you know,
I know a lot of investors who
they have experience,
but they don't have time, you know?
And they just like,
they want to be in these
new thematics that pop up,
but they don't want to get it
in a super broad exposure
where they have to
buy like spy to get AI exposure. They want more concentrated exposure, but they also,
you know, like you said, I do this full time. I'm on my screen all day. I spent every morning
reading about stocks. The people who don't have the time to do that have a hard time picking the
best stocks. And so that's what I think these products are useful for. You know, I think a lot of people are out there like saying, oh, you know, all these products are just, you know, being sold and they're being sold to us.
And the reality is, is there's always going to be a product that fits a specific need.
You just have to be the person to identify the needs for your portfolio.
And that's kind of the step that you have to take to find what's useful for you. Because
I see a lot of new traders out there that go, you know, I want AI exposure, but I don't know which
AI ETF to buy. Well, you know, do a little bit of work into what type of AI exposure you want.
And if you want like infrastructure, AIS is a great type of thing
for that. You know, if you want something else, maybe there's some other ETF that Vista has or
somebody else has that might fit it. But it's really up to you to say, what do I need in my
portfolio? What kind of exposure do I want? And if I don't have the time to stock pick effectively
to get that portfolio, how else can I get it? And that's really where these become tools i think and that's what most people miss about them and and so yeah i i agree with you
yeah i agree with what you're saying i mean looking under the hood into what the portfolio
is is critical i mean look i mean i i speak to a lot of investors all day long i'm talking to
investors anything you know rias advisors family you would be, you would find it incredible how many
sophisticated investors don't even realize what, how over-concentrated the S&P 500 is in tech names,
in the large tech names. So, you know, they own the S&P as their core, then they're buying
Nvidia and all these other companies in their single stock portfolio, then they're buying an
AI ETF that is primarily hyperscalers. So all of a sudden, their over-concentration companies in their single stock portfolio then they're buying an ai etf that is primarily hyperscalers so all of a sudden their over concentration risk in their portfolio is
crazy so to me the goal of investing is try to find etfs if you're an etf investor that have
exposures you don't have already you know you want to complement your core exposures. So, you know, most investors don't own SK Hynix or Vertiv or GE Vernova or
Legrand or Nutanix. You know, so those are some of our top holdings in AIS because they're really
important to the AI infrastructure business. So, you know, yeah, be diversified and look under the hood of what before you buy.
Great thoughts there from both StockTalk and from Adam. Love that everything that was shared.
Emp, I believe that you're on here.
I'd love to bring it over to you,
see if you have any questions or thoughts on these ETFs.
Yeah, no, I mean, it's super interesting
the different like pieces here. I actually was really curious
around Berkshire and what's going on there. And I didn't know if anyone has any thoughts,
but Adam, I'd love to ask you when I'm looking at all time highs, I'm looking at tech names
taking off and maybe they're starting to cool down. I mean, some things like, like AIS and like
AI just want to keep a nice
portion of my portfolio there. But I do want to diversify a little bit. And I look at Omaha and
USA, and I look at some of these, and then I look over and I see what Berkshire itself is doing.
Do you think that this is an opportunity to maybe diversify out into those as Berkshire comes down
and some of those are coming down because everyone's chasing everything else.
What's kind of your approach and thought process there when it comes to we get to all time highs, we need to start kind of diversifying out?
Yeah, I mean, I think I think it's critical.
You know, we simply don't know what the market holds.
Right. I mean, every day it changes.
Right. The administration comes out and says one thing.
They're firing Powell. They're not firing Powell. I mean, the market's swinging back and forth. You
need some ballast in your portfolio, something that is stable and consistent over time. So,
you know, no matter how you construct a portfolio, you want to have that consistency at your core,
you know, which is why we've designed our product line, how we've done it. We want different
products for all market cycles.
We're never going to have hundreds of products,
but the products we have have to have strong use cases.
So, you know, Berkshire, for instance,
Berkshire had a great run during the tariff tantrums.
And then, of course, it started taking a leg down.
But if you look at the underlying holdings,
many of those have been doing quite well.
So interestingly, OMAH has outperformed
Berkshire Hathaway itself over the last month or two, pretty handily actually, which is pretty
incredible. But if you think about it, it's because there was some negative sentiment around Berkshire
Hathaway itself, and that's a single stock. So again, in terms of being narrative driven,
there's been a sell-off in Berkshire B, but the underlying holdings
are doing quite well. So, you know, again, you just want to, you want to diversify across different
types of products. And, you know, if you can try to, you know, look into the market and see, you
know, where the market's been and where it's going. So, you know, we've been in a momentum driven
market for years at this point. That is not sustainable. Momentum, it's just one of the factors, right?
Value, low volatility, quality.
The market operates on different factor tilts
in different type and different time periods.
So we've been in a momentum driven market, what's next?
We believe value and quality.
And that's, of course, Berkshire is known
to be a value tilted portfolio. And of course, you know, of course, Berkshire is known to be a value-tilted
portfolio. And of course, now we have our quality-tilted portfolio. So, you know, you want a
little bit of everything in there to protect yourself in, you know, tough market environments.
It's actually a great thought. I really hadn't thought about the sentiment piece of Berkshire
with, you know, Buffett stepping down at the end of the year, but the underlying companies are still the same company. There's nothing changing over there.
And to see that OMAH actually outperforming, it makes sense. I hadn't put those two together. I'm
actually glad I asked you that question. I have one follow-up question, Wild. This is the one that,
boy, a lot of people are talking about this. We've been around a few different circles,
conversations, and people are talking about this. They know we've been around a few different circles conversations and people are talking about this they're talking about these names and and kind of the idea behind
wild and and i have one question here and obviously you know some of these names fit in here a little
bit but when i look at apple i don't think of wild and so i was just curious what led to the
selection of apple maybe i mean i know you guys have your score but whatever you can disclose
there i was just curious you need to You need to expand your horizons.
I don't think Apple is wild enough. I don't know.
Maybe part of it, I may be messing with Evan a little bit, but I was actually curious because I
looked across the names. SMCI came out, Tesla came out, and we had this conversation. I said,
Tesla kind of looks like it's stuck right now,
which kind of made sense. But I looked at Apple and I said, how did Apple get selected out of
these five? So our scoring system looks at two factors. One is the names that are attracting
the most assets and then the names that have the most assets in regard to the double levered ETFs.
then the names that have the most assets in regard to the double levered ETFs.
Right. So we're looking at that universe and we're using those ETFs as data points to see,
to understand what the investor sentiment looks like.
Right. An investor sentiment, meaning where are they investing their money?
So 60 percent of our score is going towards those companies that are growing the most AUM and 40% is going to those companies with the most AUM.
And then so it's a scoring system based on a 60-40 split. And Apple made it. Apple not only was
growing, but it also has a significant AUM base in those double levered ETFs. So that's how it
made it in. It's a, you know, it's a mechanical process. You know, we're using it, looking at
the numbers. We're looking at where the investors are putting
their money and then we're putting them in the portfolio. And that can change in a couple of
weeks when we rebalance. Yeah, great answer. I love that. And I knew there would be a systematic
response to it. I was just curious what exactly it was there. In that 60-40, is there any sentiment
scores in there at all anything
outside of that or is it kind of purely by the numbers it goes by the numbers exactly
it's a systematic process to your point and you know 60 40 60 growth 40 total assets and
so that will you know typically give you a um a portfolio comprised of some big companies
and some you know kind of smaller faster growing companies you know, kind of smaller, faster growing companies, you know, like the Tempest, for instance, AI, which made it in based on growth, clearly.
Yeah, love that. Appreciate you coming on with us, Adam. Always enjoy these conversations.
Gav, I'll turn it back over to you.
Beautiful. Thanks so much. Yeah, the time really flies by. But once again, just going to mention
these ETFs. Highly advise everyone to throw them on your watch list. Four that we talked about here today, the one with the most AUM is OMAH, especially
if you're someone that's familiar with things that YieldMax and others are doing.
This is a very, very similar concept.
And just going to look for that 15% per year in income, similar to USA.
That is the Target 15 USA quality income ETF. And then
the two that are really running here from that return perspective of wild, which is at all time
highs right now and AIS, which is, I believe, basically at all time highs as well. Adam,
any other comments that you want to share with our audience today? You've been
killing it. You've been doing a bunch of interviews, saw you had one with Investor Business Daily
and a bunch of others. So pretty cool. Pretty cool to see everything happening.
Yeah, I appreciate it. And I appreciate you guys and your audience. We've been very fortunate to
have some good quality products and that's what we pride ourselves on. You know, we don't want to over promise and under deliver. As a company, we just broke through
400 million, which, you know, in six months is pretty fast growth, which I never expected. So,
you know, just, you know, thank you to your audience, because, you know, a lot of a lot of
our assets are coming through, you know, people like, you know, the people who listen to your show.
And so we're really fortunate on that. And, you know, I just say, you know, people like, you know, the people who listen to your show. And so we're really fortunate on that. And, you know, I just say, you know, if anyone cares to follow me on X under Adam Patty,
or the company VistaShares, VistaShares.com, well, not .com, VistaShares X is the handle.
You know, we try to put out, you know, educational materials. We also have great educational
materials on our website, which is VistaShares.com. You know, we're trying to educate people and really provide full
transparency into what we do. We have, you know, methodology guides for all of our products on our
website. You can just dig in and see exactly how these portfolios are constructed. There's no black
boxes here. We put it all out there for investors so they can really be educated and understand what they're buying.
Beautiful.
Thanks so much again for coming on today, Adam.
We will be having you back shortly
and I know that we'll do some live streams
in the upcoming weeks as well,
which will be a lot of fun.
Well, thank you very much.
I appreciate your time.
Absolutely.
Perfect.
Emp, I'll turn it back over to you
if you want to run around with Stock Talk
and see if there's anything else that they want to hit here today yeah absolutely appreciate you
coming on adam gav great having you on the conversation as well there's some really cool
things happening over there and congrats on the big milestone adam uh great to see you guys
growing so successfully we'll continue to track that uh Stock Talk, Evan, we had a great conversation.
I mean, Stock Talk did not let us down with a rant even while on vacation.
I think, Stock Talk, I just want to know.
I'm not technically on vacation, but yeah.
Well, you kind of.
Did you sit at the hotel?
I'm going back early, though.
Going back early.
Did you sit at the hotel all day today and just, like,
come up with what you were going to talk about?
I'm at my cousin's house.
Okay. I was just curious if you just sat around and said i can't wait i feel bad they set up like a spare bedroom for me and had like everything nicely set up for me and yeah they ended up i
mean it wasn't their on the pillow yeah it wasn't their fault that the the wedding got postponed but
yeah i mean shit happens sometimes i like talk to one of my cousins.
I think it was ended up being something broke at the venue or something.
I don't know.
They're, they're, they're bougie and they're probably setting it up nicely.
But anyway, you know, we'll see.
We'll see.
Maybe, maybe I'll come back, but I'm going to end up flying home early.
Cause I didn't get my return flight intentionally, not knowing sort of open-ended, you know,
maybe I'll come back on tuesday or wednesday
but um i'll end up coming back this week probably in the end of the week so uh yeah trip cut short
unfortunately but what were you gonna ask me sorry before i interrupt you and said that and if you
were gonna ask me something i was just gonna see if you you had anything else i know you hit us
with a lot of uh great info i
mean just absorbing some of the stuff about option selection and stuff like that was fantastic and
i know you had some of your different names and stuff didn't know if you had anything else you
wanted to touch on or if any news or catalysts i didn't i haven't heard any analyst stuff out
of you lately i don't know are you mad at i've just been you know i've been i've been so like
content with my basket the last couple of months, like for the members of our community.
Sometimes there are periods where I'm more active and there's sometimes there's periods where I'm less active.
But the last few weeks, I've just been like, you know, I guess there's a little bit of luck involved, too.
But everything's just been working.
everything's just been working. And when I'm, when my portfolio is in that sort of groove in that,
uh, you know, outperforming attitude, I tend to not want to do too much, you know, don't,
uh, what's the phrase like, uh, don't fix it if it ain't broke.
If you look at the beautiful thing about, um, Weeble performance charts, when you share them,
um, I post mine regularly. I didn't post it today. Cause some people were like, dude, why are you posting it every day? So I was um i post mine regularly i didn't post it
today because some people were like dude why are you posting it every day so i was like all right
i won't post it again today but i wish robin hood would do that by the way it's so frustrating
robin hood doesn't yeah you have a weird crop screenshot on robin hood to show it yeah it's
so annoying i agree even some of my robin hood friends are like i want to share my performance
but i can't pull up a chart i agree agree, Robinhood. All right, all right.
I'll text Vlad.
Yeah, text Vlad.
I mean, seriously, dude, I would transfer my entire portfolio, every dollar to Robinhood
today if they added Weeble style watch lists and if they added like sophisticated performance
trackers like Weeble has.
Because it's important for me to track my
performance not only for my own notes but i also want to prove to people when i sit up here for
hours talking i don't want to sit up here for hours talking and then be like oh i'm not going
to tell you guys how i'm doing though like you know i posted and by the way people always say
oh you only post win stock doc for people people who follow along my page, I posted my portfolio performance this year when I was down 3%.
I posted a screenshot of that.
I didn't shy away.
I don't only post it when my portfolio is up 120% on the year like it is now.
Go back.
Go back to April.
I think it was in April or whenever I posted it where I was down.
And I was actually talking about hedging in that post.
Right.
If you go look at when I posted that, I was like, hey, guys, here, I'm going to show you how I made my portfolio only draw down 3% when it should be down 15%.
And I talked all about the hedges that we bought, why we bought them, how they had done.
So it's not always roses and your portfolio doubling. Sometimes you have choppy, tricky markets
like we had in the front half of this year
where you have big events that change sentiment
and stocks go down a lot.
And that's, those moments are what make,
what distinguishes who's really elite and who's not.
Like who really is a good stock picker
and a good position manager.
It's those drawdowns that
determine it and a lot of people i i was i spent all last week on my page ranting about people not
sharing performance i know some people got annoyed by it but i had a few longtime followers of mine
who are friends of mine and following me since the very beginning who said hey like why are you on
this rant and the reason why is because last year and the year before,
a ton of people were sharing their performance.
Why?
Because the markets were straight up, right?
But this year, I noticed that a bunch of those people
stopped posting their performance.
And let me tell you the honest reason why.
It's because a lot of people got shaken out of the market this year
when that tariff stuff
happened, and they either didn't get back long or they didn't get long enough. And as a result of
that, they're underperforming the market. I'm not going to name any names, but there are influencers
that I know that on this platform with hundreds of thousands of followers who are still either
red on the year or are underperforming the S&P 500, which is only up 7% on the year.
And some of these people preach all day, every day, telling new traders what they're doing wrong
and right. I'm sorry, but if you're underperforming the market, you have no business doing that.
None. And so that's why I share my performance. But anyway, my point is, is that when you go look
at these Weebill performance charts that I post, you can see the performance, like what happened along the way.
And if you look at the parts where I, my portfolio really jumps, those are the parts where these
catalysts kick in and where I build these baskets and wait, right. That's what happened with nuclear.
That's what happened with the data center stocks.
That's what happened with the Bitcoin mining stocks.
Right.
I took huge positions in cipher mining, riot and iron like three weeks ago before all of this massive move happened.
Right.
We got cipher at 429.
It's 627 today in like two weeks.
Right.
We've got Joby at 952. It's 1633 today. Did I think these were going to do that? No. But it's about it's about finding these baskets, positioning yourself and then waiting for the crowd and the volume to come. doing that with proper theme recognition and proper chart recognition. That huge rant I went
on earlier about learning these things is for that reason, so that then you can graduate to
being an instinctual decision maker. Everyone wants to be an instinctual decision maker in
markets because those are the best traders. The best traders and investors are the ones who can
look at a stock and tell you within five minutes if they're interested and within 25 minutes if they're really interested.
Those are the best traders in the market where they know what they're looking for already.
They all the best stock pickers have a set of conditions and they know what they're looking for and they let the market give it to them.
You know, a concept I touched on, I think it was the day before or maybe Monday on our spaces, I touched on this concept of allowing baskets to narrow themselves for me.
And that is a very critical concept in portfolio management.
So I'm not talking about for institutions.
I'm talking about portfolio management for everyday people who are managing their own
portfolio or senior stocks.
When you build a basket, this is how I trade and invest.
I build baskets.
So let's say aerospace and defense, mid-cap aerospace and defense, which I've talked about
here for the last eight or nine months or so.
When I started building that basket last year, I didn't know what the best stock was.
I already owned Kratos. So that was stock was. I already owned Kratos.
So that was one position. I already owned Embraer. But outside of those two stocks,
I didn't have any aerospace and defense exposure. So I started doing research,
and I came upon Standard Aero, Leonardo DRS, Mercury Systems, Huntington Ingalls,
and I bought almost all of them. I took a position of some kind, either equity
or options position in almost all of them. And over the course of four or five months,
they narrowed themselves down for me. I didn't choose, but some of them outperformed the others,
right? And I stuck with the outperformers and dropped the laggards. And so over time,
the basket went
from nine names to three names. I touched on this concept two or three days ago. I do this with
every basket. I did it with my data center basket. I did it with my nuclear stock basket.
And that's how you end up with a winning stock with a great cost basis that you can hold for a
long time and not have to worry about it. And if you do that repeatedly enough through enough thematics, you'll end up with a portfolio five or six years later where you have the winning
stocks in those baskets that you kept as core positions. And that's how you build a portfolio
as an individual trader. That's the best way to do it in my opinion is to let the baskets narrow themselves for you through price not through decision because the truth is it's really hard
to pick winners in the market that's the hardest part that's why stock picking is hard when we were
talking about the etfs earlier that's why etfs are suitable for most people because picking
individual stocks is really hard but what makes it easier is letting the price action do it for you
socks is really hard. But what makes it easier is letting the price action do it for you.
Letting the winners be decided. You know, you're sort of creating these kind of
royal rumbles in your portfolio where you're saying, hey, I know I want exposure to this
theme, right? And the great thing about this sort of philosophy, turning on this sort of philosophy
does not require you to be incredibly market literate.
It doesn't require you to be incredibly experienced. If you go to an average person on the street,
you know, and I don't mean average in terms of average intelligence, I mean, average in terms
of their exposure to the markets, right? They're not here every day staring at the markets like we
are. If you go to one of those types of people and you say,
hey, like if you could invest in any industry today, what industry would you invest in?
Most people, after a few minutes of thought, will give you some kind of answer. They'll say,
oh, you know, I would love to invest in electric vehicles or I'd love to invest in the restaurant industry or I'd love to invest in nuclear energy. They'll say something. Right. But the separation between that, between saying between people knowing what they
want to invest in is they don't know how. Because they don't know which stock to pick to give them
that exposure properly. Right. You might have your Uber driver say, I'm really bullish on nuclear
energy. I believe in it. I, you know, I understand, but I don't know which stock to buy. I also feel that way when
I'm new to a theme. You're not an idiot for feeling that way. I feel that way too. How do I
solve it? I solve it by throwing multiple darts, right? Like with Aerial Space and Defense, okay, I'll buy Huntington
Ingalls, I'll buy Standard Aero, I'll buy Leonardo DRS, I'll buy Mercury Systems, I'll buy Kratos
in some form or fashion, not full-size positions in all of them, and I'll let the winners be
decided in the arena of the market. And it's a very beautiful approach because it's stress-free, and, you know, a stock's not
performing, great, get it out of the basket, it doesn't deserve to be there, you know, and over
time, your baskets will get narrower and narrower, your returns will also accelerate, because by
function of removing the underperformers, you will accelerate your returns, right?
Because the outperformer in the group will receive a higher weighting in the basket.
That's just default.
That's just basic position management logic, right?
So by virtue of narrowing the basket, you get higher implicit weighting in the winner.
And then you let the winner win.
And the basket goes from, you know, three or 4% allocation to an 8% eight or nine percent allocation in your portfolio that's how you see these big jumps right like today i had because i had so many positions up double digits today i had positions
that literally jumped from a five and a half percent percent waiting in the portfolio to like
a six or six and a half percent waiting in the portfolio in one day because they relatively outperformed the other
holdings by that much. And some people will look at my performance this year and last year and say,
well, you must be awfully concentrated. You must only own a few stocks. Well, if you look at the
performance chart, you can tell immediately that's not true just by the variations in the chart.
My chart isn't one big jumps up and down. It's a bunch of these tiny moments of volatility if you zoom in.
I own 20 to 25 positions at a time for most of this year. I usually own less than that.
Last year, I operated more in the 10 to 15 range. But this year, there's been so much opportunity
that I just feel like I couldn't get my hands on enough of it. So I've been a little wider stretch than normal, but you know, that's a 126% return in, you know, the year's not even remotely over yet. And that's on
a basket of 20 to 25 names. That's not a concentrated basket, right? So you have to pick a
lot of winners to do that. And, and, and the reason we pick a lot of winners is because of
this approach catalyst first, then theme, then basket exposure, and then allow the reason we pick a lot of winners is because of this approach catalyst first then theme then basket exposure and then allow the price to narrow the basket for you and eventually
what you end up is with a bunch of high quality stocks and the best themes in the world like
kratos what's your average full-time yeah like what's your average hold time on some of these
like i know you're more of a swing guy but months so i was just curious so you when you get in 20 or or so positions i didn't know how how often replacing one or yeah if it's
a theme you know like nuclear yeah so the bottom rung so in out of that basket of 23 positions
there are about seven positions that i would consider core positions. Now, what constitutes a core position
is multifaceted. First of all, I need a deep cost basis advantage. Why is that important?
Some people think it's not important. I think it's important for psychological management.
I also think it's important for when the market pulls back. If you have a cot, like let's say you own a stock at 50, stocks trading 55 today,
market cracks 10%, you're buried. It's very hard to hold that stock, right? If you're down 20 or
30% on your equity, it's very, very hard to hold that stock. So it depends on your conviction level,
right? If you can, if your conviction level is high and you're like, okay, the stock's drawing down,
I don't matter, that's fine.
But what makes it a million times easier
and makes it irrelevant to your conviction
is the fact that you got a good entry.
Like, I'm really a believer in the idea
that the money is made in the buy and not the sell.
I'm a big believer of that philosophy.
Like that gets said a lot on Vintuit,
but I think that's a really, really smart thing to say because I think it,
I think a good entry transforms everything about the position. Absolutely. Everything
transforms your flexibility, your ability to stomach drawdowns. Like it is like I haven't held any stock for an extended period of time that I didn't get a good entry on.
Because I just don't I don't bag hold stuff like I'm not going to sit on a stock that I'm down 10 percent on and watch it go down 20 percent.
Like I just don't do that.
If I buy a stock and it breaks down, I consider that a bad entry and I'm out for a haircut.
I'm not going to sit and wait on a very deep red position and bag hold it.
So the short answer to your question is I have that basket of seven higher conviction positions.
I don't touch those.
Those are accumulation candidates on drawdowns and not sell candidates.
But then in terms of turnover, which is what your question is about, on the other 16-ish positions, and like I said, it's usually a much smaller basket than that.
It's usually about 10 non-core positions.
Right now I have more stocks than I normally have.
On those other positions, they are all susceptible to much tighter risk management, right?
much tighter risk management, right? So to be very specific in the answer to your question,
in a bull market environment, my turnover is much lower, right? Because the stocks are not
presenting points of risk. Like in a bull market where 20 out of 23 of my positions, like today,
20 out of 23 of my positions were green. On days like that,
like there's very little points of risk in the portfolio.
On the other hand, in times like February, right?
I cut like 12 positions after the deep seek day.
Like the big deep seek Monday,
I got killed on a bunch of trading positions.
And you can see that in my
performance chart for those that want to go see it that's the beauty about when i talk about this
stuff you guys can just pull up my performance i remember that and see yeah it's a i my portfolio
performance almost fell off a cliff like i had like a 10 intraday drawdown on the whole portfolio
it was brutal because i was in all ai and data center stocks because that's what i'd been working
right so you're gonna have days like that, but you have to manage risk in those
moments. So what did I do? I cut 12 trading positions and I added spy hedges after DeepSeek.
What happened two weeks later? We got Liberation Day and the markets tanked and my hedges paid
huge. And if you look again at the performance chart in my portfolio,
you'll see during that period, my performance flattened out. Why? Because I cut exposure
rapidly on trading positions and I added hedges. I did it in more of a timely way than I usually do.
I mean, I'm usually not that well timed, but it just happened to be that the deep
seek moment lined up with the tariff sell off. You know, if that hadn't have happened, it wouldn't
have been as well timed. I didn't know that tariff sell off was coming when I bought those hedges.
I bought them because of the deep seek sell off and because I got buried on so many trades.
So, so yeah, you're quite the answer to your question is lower conviction positions are
turned over rapidly during moments of market
weakness because they have tighter risk controls. But core positions are rarely turned over
regardless of market conditions because they do not have tight risk controls. The goal with my
core positions is accumulation. The goal with my trading positions is to accelerate performance.
I want them to go up meaningfully and then I will sell them.
That's the point for my trading positions.
My core positions, I have no interest in selling.
Like none.
I don't care.
They could go like centrist energy is already more than a double for us.
130% a month and a half.
It could go to 300 in two months and I would not sell it.
And people might hear that in the audience and be like, that's absolutely crazy. It's the biggest
position in your portfolio. There's a reason why it's the biggest position in my portfolio.
Yes, it will pull back. Yes, it will draw down. Whenever I talk about these things, people are
like, is he just saying it's going to go up forever? No, that's not what I'm saying. What
I'm saying is I have enough conviction that I don't care if it doesn't go up if it comes back down 30 i don't care i'll buy more
and like i said out of out of out of the out of the stocks i own seven are core positions
four are top accumulation candidates so it's not every core position that i'm just eager to buy
you know like tesla and amazon example, those are technically core positions
because I bought them in 2015 and 2016. But am I eager to accumulate Tesla and Amazon? No.
They're not on my accumulation list, even though they are core positions. So again, I'm trying to
get as detailed as possible here. But the point is, is there's nuance to these things. And that
was a great question from M because I think that's actually useful about portfolio turnover for you guys to
learn but there's a tremendous amount of nuance to these things it's not a simple answer of like
you know yes I cut these positions when when they forfeit the 21 EMA or you know some very specific
condition no it depends on what is the point of the position in my portfolio?
Is it meant to be a durable hold? If it is, those positions aren't going to be turned over.
But is it meant to be a trade because the short interest is high and I think the theme's kind of
hot and I think it might pop? That's just a trade. And if it breaks down, I'm out.
up that's just a trade and if it breaks down i'm out so yes most stocks in my portfolio are trading
positions in terms of the number of stocks and thus they are subject to rapid turnover however
the top waiting positions the top seven or so positions are not turned over at all. And in fact, they see very few, if any, trims even at all.
That was my next question.
Yeah. I allow the best stocks to compound. And that's a very controversial decision.
I know really great traders, investors who push back on me with that. And that's okay. Everyone's
style is different. But what has done me the most good in the 12 years that I've been in the market
is not selling my biggest winners. That's what's done me the most good in the 12 years that i've been in the market is not
selling my biggest biggest winners that's what's done me the most good you're selling like dude the
first week i was in in nebius i it made a monster move it moved from like 23 to like 29 the first
week we were in and i was like dude this is fast okay keep in mind the stock's 55 today
a month later okay this is the first week after i opened it it went from 23 to 29 and i was like
dude that's a fast move and i sold 10 of the position i'm still regretting that even though
the rest of the stock has doubled like i still regret that and and that's what conviction means. Like, when we talk about
conviction, people are just like, oh, it means I'm confident in position. No, conviction means like,
you are, like, you're so tied to owning the stock that not only do you have no desire to sell it,
but you are, like, every share you do sell, you feel like you're like letting like it's painful to let go of.
That's conviction.
And those stocks, I just don't sell, you know, for better or worse.
And look, let's let's I always like to be honest about the downsides, too.
Let me be absolutely clear.
There have been stocks that I took that high conviction approach with in the past that
didn't work how I thought they were going to work, that did come back all the way back down,
and that I did give up six plus figures of gains on in a very short period of time.
That's happened to me too. So it's not all just roses and gardens and everything goes up and all the themes work. I've taken, you know, I've made big mistakes because of my conviction before, but I've learned lessons from those things too.
And over time, your conviction gets sharper and more focused and smarter and more concentrated. Because 10 years ago, when I was in my sophomore year of trading, at the end of my second year of trading, if you had asked me what high conviction meant, I would have been like, dude, I have like 12 high conviction stocks for you right now.
That's what I would have said, you know, because that's how I used to think about it.
If you ask me today, I can give you maybe four names.
If you ask me today, I can give you maybe four names.
You know, and that's the difference is like you become more honed and you become more focused on, you know, you learn lessons like, hey, you know what?
I averaged down on that or I built into it too aggressively at the lows and didn't consider the risk factors or you factor in lessons that in mistakes that you made and say
how can I better manage this next time when I'm long a similar type of name and you integrate
that in your process but the truth is is like no one is going the only like way you're ever going
to have the types of stocks where you look back in 10 years and go, I'm up a thousand percent on shares and I
made a million and a half dollars on a hundred thousand dollar investment. If you want to have
those kind of moments, life changing moments, my life has changed in the last two years. You know,
I had a relatively large port from just trading. I had a relatively large retail portfolio going into 2024.
And since 2024, the total return is 530% on a large portfolio.
Like my life has absolutely changed from just trading in the last two years.
And that happened all because of these types of stocks, not because of the day trades,
not because of the 500% option gainers,
none of that. That's not where the money was made. They're cool. It's sexy. You know, I post them
because it's sexy and fun to turn, you know, a small amount of money into a lot amount of money
with leverage. And I talked earlier about how to smartly use that leverage, right? For those of you
that don't, that weren't here for the beginning where I talked about options leverage, please listen to that clip because I talk about
not being a gambler with it. But most of that money was made from these exact things that I've
talked about all day today. Planting seeds in high quality stocks and letting them work for you.
The right themes with the right reasons. That's how you make money as a retail trader.
And, you know, if you want to do that, you're going to have to get over this idea of, like, being flippant in the stocks that you own and buy.
You have to be more intentional.
Because you could hear, I could talk all day about a stock up here.
And you might listen to my pitch and say, you know what?
I like what StockDoc's saying.
I'm going to buy it.
Okay?
And then you buy it and you get long.
And then all of a sudden, the stock goes down.
You're going to be asking yourself, why is the stock down?
Because you don't understand the story. You don't understand the business. You're going to be super yourself, why is the stock down? Because you don't understand the story.
You don't understand the business.
You're going to be super occupied with the price action.
Instead, if you do the work and come upon a stock and say,
holy moly, I really like this for X, Y, and Z reasons.
I really like the chart.
It's my style of chart.
I really like the catalyst. I really think this is a promising theme. I really like the earnings growth. You know, I like all these things about the stock. I'm going to buy it. You know, when that stock has volatility, you are going to remember the work you did to be convicted on it in the first place.
to be convicted on it in the first place.
That's the first thing that's going to come to your mind
when that stock is red is,
well, you know what?
I did my research and this thing is like,
this thing is an opportunity.
I want to own more of this.
I'm going to buy more here actually.
And then it consolidates for a few weeks
and then boom, some catalyst comes out
and the stock runs 20% and you go,
that's gratifying.
And not only is it gratifying,
but that's what conviction is.
That's how you manage these stocks. You're never going to hold something for five years because i told you to buy it or
because somebody on twitter told you to buy it you're not going to have the heart for that because
you don't even know what you own or why you own it you watch it go down and you'll get spooked and
be like oh i gotta get out you'll jump out and then boom the stock's up 500 the next five years
and you're just sitting there wondering like why didn't I do the work and know what I own?
People say this all the time.
Know what you own.
People say it on the institution side.
They say it on the retail side.
It sounds like a cliche and a stupid thing.
Just that step alone will make you better.
Just knowing what you own.
Just that.
If you do nothing else, I talked, like, Monday about some lessons and some, you know, workshops you can do for yourself on the weekend.
Marking and ranking stocks by conviction. If all that stuff sounds annoying and too tedious for you,
just put a sticky note on your computer and say, know what you own. And all that means is,
is be willing before you allocate six or seven figures in capital. You know, I know some new
traders who are trading with $6 million accounts and they're throwing a million dollars of stock without even thinking about what they do
or what industry they're in or if they like the potential. They're just flippant with their money.
Once you stop being flippant with your money and you start being intentional and doing the work on
the things you put your money into and you start asking yourself, is this dollar allocated to the right spot? Is this dollar allocated to the right spot? Treat every solitary dollar of buying
power in your portfolio with intention and importance. That's how you get to the finish
line. That's how you end up with a basket of winning stocks and you look back and smile and
say, you know what? I did it right.
That's where the real money is made.
Not in the trading, not in the scalping, none of that stuff. No matter how good your strategy is, no matter what school of thought you're from, the short-term
stuff pales, pales in comparison to holding stocks for months or years.
Pales in comparison.
Nothing close.
I was going to ask, because I'm in that same,
like the example you gave kind of at the beginning of that piece was,
I can't remember which, Nebius.
I had the same thing happen with hood.
So I restructured a lot of my stuff and, uh, set on cash for a little bit
earlier this year and was waiting on some type of dip. And I wanted to consolidate, I had portfolios
all over the place. So I took that opportunity and I started buying a lot hood was a position
that really wasn't going to be a core position of mine personally, but it quickly rose. Obviously
you look at what happened and I'm going, okay,
I don't really want to sell this, but do I really want it to grow into a 10, 12,
you know, 15% position of my portfolio just based on the size. And so that's where I've been trying
to figure out like, you know, just me personally, I try to rebalance. I was curious, like kind of
your approach, you hit on some of it, but you know, there's some things like, no, I don't really ever want to sell these. I want to hold
them forever, but they get to a point where like my portfolio is way out of balance towards certain
names. It's like, I should do some trims and, you know, reallocate somewhere else just based on
opportunity. I think that's a skill that a lot of people don't have. And it's, it's not something I
say that, that I have, it's something I'm trying't have. And it's not something I say that I have.
It's something I'm trying to develop.
And so I'm just kind of picking your brain on that.
Yeah, weighting management is...
Let me ask one follow-up too real fast before you dive in.
So like when you enter a position, you say,
okay, I want this to be a 4% position or 3% or whatever it is.
Three and a half, yeah.
Three and a half. Okay is. Three and a half. Yeah. Three and a half.
Okay.
So three and a half and you go, okay, I want this to be a three and a half percent position
and look at your, your, your overall portfolio size and you, you go in, you know, with that
amount, but later, you know, maybe that one's grown a little bit, but it's, you know, later
as, as your account grows as a whole and you take a new position again at three and a half
percent, that obviously that's going to be much larger. A bigger amount of money.
Your portfolio has gone up. Yeah. So do you reset that every single time?
No. And do you reset your other positions to match?
So look, you're killing it because those are actually really great questions. But
yeah. Okay. So here's the thing. Your question is sort of too faceted around two concepts.
The first part of it is what I like to call waiting management. And the second part of it
is this idea of like, how to manage a successful position, right? So I don't know how to phrase
that. But one part of it is how to manage a position that's winning and growing and waiting.
And the other part of it is how to manage a rising waiting in general. So I'll approach the waiting question first and then we'll tackle the second part of it.
There are certain stocks in my portfolio that I want to go up and waiting and I won't fight it
when they do. And those are those core positions I was talking about earlier, right? I have a
basket of four stocks that are my priorities for accumulation and a basket of seven. And this is out of 23
positions that are quote unquote core positions. Those positions are not subject to trims at their
waiting roofs. Okay. So when I share my portfolio with our members, one thing I do is I provide a weighting range for each position. And the intention of that is to say, hey, when this position approaches the top of the weighting range, it is subject to profit taking.
That principle is true for my trading positions.
So the majority of the positions in my portfolio, that is true for.
So let's say I have a position at a 4% to 6% weight.
Okay?
Let's say I go in at 3.5%, it jumps to 4% in the first two weeks, and now I'm looking
at a 4% to 6% weighting.
When it hits a 6% weighting in the portfolio, I will trim 10 percent of the position standard. And so any non-core
position, it's a very important part of this, that reaches its intended weighting cap gets an
immediate 10 percent sell. That's standard procedure for me in portfolio management.
be a 10% sell. That's standard procedure for me in portfolio management. Now, on the other hand,
if it is a core position, I do not care. Not that I don't care. I want the weighting to go up.
Okay. And I don't want the weighting to go up as a consequence of accumulation. I want the
weighting to go up as a consequence of performance. Because the core positions are sized more
aggressively from the get-go, right? So whereas my standard position, like you just asked, is
three and a half percent, when I go into a higher conviction position, I'm going with seven percent
plus. So it's almost double the standard weighting on a higher conviction positions. So I'm not much of a scale-in guy.
Now, again, that's a controversial opinion because, first of all, that doesn't mean I don't scale in if the opportunity is presented.
It means my intention is usually not to scale in.
Now, when I was a newer trader, I did scale in.
And I think for newer traders, I strongly recommend you learn to scale in before you approach it the way I do.
I approach my entries with more confidence because I've been doing this a long time and I have a lot of confidence in my entry, so I don't feel like I need to scale in.
But it's going to take you a long time to get to that point of experience to really be like,
hey, I'm going to go in with 7% of my portfolio here, not over the next week, but right here.
That does take a lot of skill and confidence.
So don't do that if you're new. But yeah, generally, when I look at these higher conviction positions, I go in with
a larger weighting. So I don't want to get from a 7% to a 12% weighting through accumulation.
I want to get from a 7% to a 12% weighting throughout performance relative to the lower conviction positions, right?
My goal with this is I want my higher conviction positions that have more size to outperform
my lower conviction positions.
I obviously want everything to go up, right?
But the design intention here is that I want my higher conviction positions on a percentage basis to outperform my lower conviction positions so that their weighting in the portfolio naturally increases.
And that's how they become core positions, not only in name, but in actual allocation, right?
Because if you call it a core position and it's 5% in your portfolio, but you have a bunch of trading positions that are 5%, well, that's not much of a core position,
right? What makes it a core position, what makes it a high conviction position is the fact that
relative to your other positions, your weighting is high. And so long answer short, I trim
trading positions at their predetermined weighting cap with a 10% sell as standard procedure.
But I do not trim core positions as a consequence of waiting ever. If I do ever trim core positions,
it is because A, they make a parabolic, nonsensical move that I don't think is personally justified.
Right. If I'm in a stock and there's good news and it really is good news and it goes up 20%,
I'm OK with that. But if I'm in a stock and it goes up 20% on a day and I think the news is kind
of bullshit, that might be a scenario where I trim on a parabolic move in a stock, big stock
that I own where I think the move is not justified. So those are the conditions in which I trim on a parabolic move in a stock, big stock that I own, where I think the move is not justified.
So those are the conditions in which I trim core positions.
But yeah, trading positions, as you discuss, what do you do when the weighting goes up?
Those are subject to trims as the weighting increases, because I don't want a trading
position to become a massive category.
And sometimes even like there are conviction for me is a gradient.
There's some stocks I'm highly convicted in. There's some stocks like I like a lot. And
there's some stocks that, you know, I'm just taking as a flyer. And those mid-level conviction
positions, Joby is one of them where I like it a lot. And I didn't expect it to go up this quickly,
but we have a good cost basis. So I'm going to stick with it. That's one of them where it swelled today, start off as a three and a half percent allocation,
swelled today to a 9.3% allocation, right? So almost tripled in waiting in two weeks.
That's too much too fast for me, right? So again, there's nuance and conditions to this. So what
did I do to Joby today? I said, okay, I don't want to sell the equity because I have a 952 cost and the stock's trading 16s today. I don't want to lose
that cost base. So I'm going to keep the equity in full, but I have some calls, which are an
options complement to my position, some $10 calls. And I was like, okay, I'll sell a third of those.
And they were up like 400% today. So that's a big profit. So I sold a third of those,
locked some really nice profits in. And now I'm okay with it. If it pulls back, cool, maybe I'll add re add some calls or something. But
this is these are sort of the small nitty gritty things that you need to do to be really, really
good. You know, if you want to be really, really good, and like consistently outperform year after
year, you have to do this kind of bullshit. Like it's going to be annoying from time to time.
And honestly, for the first few months that you try to do these things these these little position
management things you're going to really feel like it's tedious eventually it'll become second
nature to you where you just scroll through your portfolio click a few buttons and you know you're
done and that's where i want everyone to get because guys there's so much opportunity in the
market so much opportunity to build wealth.
Most people just really mismanage it because they get too lost up in this idea of like chasing lottery tickets.
And they're just looking for like the next stock that's going to run 100% in a week on Twitter all the time.
Like we get in plenty of stocks that do that, but we don't get in them because we think they're going to do that. We get in them because we think they're high quality
opportunities. And the results are, the results are really the sideshow. You know, I know there's
a lot of focus on results, but the results of the sideshow where you'll really get good is the
process. Like is your process quality? If your process is really high quality, I think mine is,
I've spent years and years building my catalyst trading process.
I think I have a high quality process.
And I think that's the reason why it produces high quality stock picks time after time after time.
I mean, just this year, forget about last year, just this year, we had Centris Energy, Robinhood, Nebius Corp, Joby, you know, Cypher, Riot, like these enormous calls that went up like crazy
all came from the exact same process, exact same four-step process that I spent an hour talking
about earlier. And you can go back and listen to the recording if you want to, but it's,
there's no magic here. You know, do I think
I'm a smart guy? Yeah. I think I'm a smart guy. I think I do my work, you know, and I think that
that matters, but is that the reason why I consistently outperform? No, I consistently
outperform because I've had the willingness to change my strategies when they have not paid me.
And I've had the willingness to stick to the strategies
that have paid me and have been willing to change my craft. I'm a very different trader today than
I was 10 years ago. And I trade less. My sizing is obviously bigger just because I have a lot more
money than I had 10 years ago. But my sizing is bigger. I trade less.
I'm much more focused. I hold for longer. These are the things that have changed. And for some
people, your lessons might be different and there might be different things that you have to change.
But being in the markets is, is, is not hard. It's just, it requires a suspension of a lot of fear and it requires
a suspension of a lot of emotion. If you can learn to do three things, one, do real research
and work on the stocks you pick. Two, don't let yourself get shaken out of the market either due to fear or greed or both.
And three, block out all of the noise.
And when I say noise, I mean the 50 paragraph dissertations on the year end S&P 500 price target or the 20-page reports on projected tariff impact
or the guy that talks about a stock and is trying to fearmonger a stock that you have
high conviction in or comes out with a short report on it uh that's all noise
and learning to block it out will just dramatically improve your life like you know i i i respond to
stuff on twitter and scroll just through stuff on twitter just because i have friends on twitter
and i want to network and obviously keep growing my account and all that good stuff. If I'm being completely honest with you guys, like during the day or during my market
research, like I'm not reading Twitter. Like I am focused. I don't care what, you know,
anyone, frankly, even the people, the people on this panel are all my friends and I've known them
for years and I respect their opinions, but I don't care about their opinions when it comes to the stocks I pick to be frank.
Like logical is a good friend of mine. There's stocks I picked before that he didn't like.
I don't care. I still bought them. You know, I have a cousin of mine who I talk to all the time
who's a successful businessman and he does very well in stocks and talks to me about stocks all
the time. And there's stuff that I'll tell him about and he's like i don't really get that and i don't care i
still buy it you know my best friend in real life was like this longtime bitcoin bull one of the best
crypto guys out there and super smart with all that stuff so i'll tell him about something and
you know he doesn't get it or says something that's negative about it or whatever and i don't
care i still buy it and these are all I respect. I'm not saying anything about their intelligence or
their opinions, but it's about this idea of like, once you've built your process and you understand
how to break down stocks and you understand what your conditions are, you kind of don't care about
what everyone else is saying. And I just don't care what I'm like. I don't care about what everyone else is saying and i just don't care
what i'm like i i don't care i i can't remember the last time i cannot remember the last time
that i scrolled down my twitter feed and bought a stock that i saw somebody mentioned i can't even
remember last time that was maybe like i don't know five years ago. I can't even remember. And don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that
I don't sometimes follow some of my friends' ideas. I do, but because they meet my own
conviction for my own reasons, not because they said it. Like Mystic, for example, who's one of
our analysts on our server, is a good friend of mine. I've known him for years. He's just
an awesome trader. A lot of people in the audience probably know him too.
I follow a lot of his ideas because, well, A, he's a great trader and I trust him. But a lot of
the way he thinks about stocks and the stocks he's looking at meet the exact same conditions
in exact same way I think. So I follow him on some of his ideas, not because he brought it up,
but because I then go look at the stock and go, yep, love the chart, love the catalyst, love the theme.
I'm also buying it, right?
The difference between that
and what a lot of new traders do on Twitter is,
new traders on Twitter see a stock and they go,
you know what, I like stock talk.
He's smart.
You know, I like listening to him.
I'm going to buy this stock because he mentioned it.
Don't do that.
I don't care if you think,
no matter how long you've been following me
or how smart I am, that's not what you should do. What you should say is, is, hmm, what Stock Talk
is talking about sounds interesting. I'm going to go look into it. That's what you should say.
If you're interested. I would add to that. I would say I would try to learn the process. Like for me, I see you mention an idea on here. And yeah, sometimes I'm like, okay, that's a good starting point for me to do some work on that name and see if it fits into something I want.
Okay, how did you come up with this idea? What led you to this? What were your criteria? How did your brain come to the conclusion that, hey, I have a high conviction position here in this name, and I took it, I alerted it to the community, and then I spoke about it later publicly on Spaces?
the research that was done what how did you come to that conclusion and i think that's what more
people miss than anything is people like well i can't trust his picks or well this guy does like
said that okay somebody that makes good picks that you know uh has a track record of it but then
beyond that it's okay but understand their process like that's where i want to learn your process
like how you got there or somebody else you you know, other people respect, you know, like paper gains.
Okay.
I've been studying how does he get to his conclusions, not does his conclusion fit me?
That's very well said.
And I agree with that.
Yes.
And that's the thing is everyone's focused on the results and not the process.
And like we have some people
in our community who are new and some people have been there with me for years. And the guys who
have been there for the guys and girls who have been there with me for years, what they know is,
is they know the process, like what you're talking about. They know how I get to these
stocks because they've seen me pick so many of the similar types of stocks, right? So the really sharp ones in our community, they know, they know what I'm looking for.
Like I get tagged.
One thing that makes me so happy in our community is I get tagged all the time with people going,
hey, StockDoc, this looks like your kind of setup, right?
You know, they'll mention a little blurb about the stock and they'll show me the chart.
And I'm like, yes, that does look like my kind of setup, you know? And I'm like, that's exactly like, I sometimes I'll be like, I want to
buy it. You know? I love that. No, that it's this, it happens to me on the trading side a lot.
People in our group will say, Hey, I just took, I just took an imp trade and they like, we'll break
it down. Like, this is why I took it. This is what I saw and everything on the over on the future
side. And I'm like, yes, you're,'re learning the identification process, not the spoon fed process.
from that. But then I get tagged in those things and I'm like, oh, people are actually listening.
Like, you know, you guys are looking for 200 day pinches with up curling nine and 21 EMAs and
quality catalysts and high short interest. And you're finding your own setups. And like people
sometimes tag me to stock and I'm like, dude, that's the best thing I've seen in two weeks.
Like I didn't even bump into that, you know? And like that, that, that's what I love. And,
and that's really the point of these like guys keep in mind
yeah from time to time i promote my group on here we talked about it last time because we
didn't have a big panel and but you guys know 90 of my words are just me talking about trading
concepts here talking about stocks and the reason i do that and we do these spaces for free and i
spent two hours today, three hours sitting here
with you guys talking about it because I genuinely want you guys to get better at it. Like I genuinely
do on your own. You know, I don't get anything out of that, but it's rewarding to me to see
everyday people who, you know, might not, whose full-time job might not be the markets,
make real money on the markets because they put in the work
and decided to learn a new skill and learn how to manage their own money. You know, I really don't
believe most people need a financial advisor. And I believe most people can learn to manage their
money. Now, if you have tens of millions of dollars and you like sold some company, yeah,
get a financial advisor if you
know if you don't know what you're doing but you know for most people who are sitting on
everyday people who go to work and have a five or six figure portfolio you know and it's you know
it's important to them to grow that money and keep it and they want to find out how to be better
stock pickers like that's what i do these spaces for and why I give two hours of my time every day and do these rants and these spaces.
Because I genuinely want y'all to make money and realize how amazing the market is.
And, you know, like, it's the best thing in the world.
Like, the market changed my life.
You know, I was down and out.
Like, I don't talk about my personal life often.
But both of my parents died when I was very young.
And I was in medical school and I left medical school
I had no job no money and all I had was the markets you know that's it because that's my
old that was my only shot to climb out of that hole and I did and maybe that it wasn't a luck
involved there's always luck involved you know but they there was a lot of blood, sweat and tears for years and years before I ever made my first million bucks.
Like, you know, that that's not a.
Yeah, I feel like it's just this cliche.
You know, I said it earlier, like everybody on Twitter and everybody everywhere is like, oh, you know, if I could just make a million dollars, it'll all be over.
All our problems will be over.
And like, I just want to get there, get some big options win and you know do it like that focusing on that's never going to get you there you know
it's the grit and the determination like and you won't stay there either exactly and you won't stay
there either that that's beautifully put too because most people i've seen who i've seen make
their first million you know they give it back either on spending it away or trying to chase some other
high. But yeah, to M's point, if you want to make your first million bucks, if you're out there and
haven't done it and want to keep it and want to build wealth for your family and build wealth for
you, you know, the markets are an amazing place to do that for everyone in the world. And you don't
have to be a trader. You don't have to do any of this. Like, yeah, we talk a lot about, I hate, honestly, I honestly hate this whole war between traders
and investors, like this classification war.
I ranted about this the other day.
I just hate it.
The reality is if you want to make it in markets, whatever your style is, a trader or an investor
or whatever, no matter how passive or active you want to be, you can change your life.
You can change the people's lives that you know.
You can change your family's lives. The last two years I said changed my life. The last 10 years
really changed it. I went from being a med school dropout with no money, with a very,
very short history of trading. I did well in my first three or four years going into medical
school of trading,
but I didn't have a lot of money at that time.
You know, back then,
a 200% return on the portfolio didn't mean anything.
Now it means a lot.
You know, back then it meant four figures.
Now it means seven plus figures.
That's a big difference in how you think about the markets,
but the most important constant that whole time
was the markets themselves but the most important constant that whole time was the
markets themselves, you know, because it's a, it's a place where it's like your, your
deferent, your differentiation versus the participant next to you is all about your
access, effort, and info. That's it. And there are going to be some people who have the access
that you can never get, and you can't do anything about that.
But the info and effort part, you can do.
We live in a world where you have treasure troves of information at your fingertips.
If anything, AI has made trading a million times easier.
You can compile so much information about a company in such a short period of time
to accelerate your stock picking because of AI.
You know how much work that used to be? You know how much work it used to be to like
pull up a summary of everything the company's done in the last five years? If you go to chat
GPT or whatever, your favorite LLM and ask it that about any company and give me a five-year
summary of all business operational procedures, revenue growth, gross margin, provide me a list
of 10 major risks. What are five negative events that have happened for the company?
Like you could go on and on and on and on about every question you possibly could have about a
company and the AI will give you a pretty sophisticated answer. It may not give you the
best possible perfect answer, but it'll give you a pretty sophisticated answer.
Literally three years ago you
know how long that would take me to do that research would take me days now I do it in hours
you know so it's at your fingertips like there's no excuse there's no excuse um you know get out
there and do it and put in the work and you. You'll be happier for it because you'll be like, dude, why didn't I learn to read a chart earlier?
Why didn't I learn to read a balance sheet earlier?
Why didn't I learn about market cycles earlier?
You know, why didn't I?
Because it's such easy stuff.
It's all basic stuff.
Like all of you guys and girls in the audience could have learned this stuff in eighth grade. If you wanted to, if it was taught in school, if technical analysis was
taught in school, you could have taught people how to read basic charts in eighth grade.
So all of you are capable of it. It's just a lot of you think like, it's not,
I don't know, like maybe it's unnecessary or like, I don't know. I honestly don't know where
the hesitancy comes from. Cause I talked to some like 30 or 40 year old traders who have been in the market 15
years, they still don't know how to read a chart.
And I like I asked some of them who are my friends, like, why?
Why?
Why haven't you bothered to just spend a weekend?
You've been in the market for 10 years to learn how to read basic.
Like, and when I say basic, I really mean basic guys.
I mean, like no frills, price action reading.
Like, go read Anna Colling's book.
Again, I have no affiliation with her.
It's like the third time I've mentioned her book.
No affiliation with her.
She's a very sweet lady and has a great book for the basics on volume price analysis.
You can read that book cover to cover and you know the basics of VPA already.
That's it.
It's like one thing you have to do.
You can read the book in a weekend.
You can read the spark notes probably in, I don't know, like 20 minutes. I don't know how long
spark notes are. If there even is a spark notes, there probably is, but, um, don't be lazy. Don't
be fucking lazy. Don't be lazy. I hate when people are lazy when they want something, you know,
most of you want higher portfolio performance. I don't think anyone would say no to that in the audience.
Yet, what, less than a quarter of you are actually doing anything about it?
Like, how many of you in the audience that don't know how to read a chart have put out any effort into learning how to read a chart in the last week?
I'm guessing it's a very low percentage.
And I'm not insulting any of you guys in the audience.
I'm just speaking to the truth about the human condition and about human behavior. Like, you know, people in a bull
market, especially everyone gets lazy, man, because people think they don't need skill to
make money. Right. That becomes the the prevailing attitude becomes, well, everything I'm buying is
going up. I must be a genius. I don't, well, why, why would I need to learn something else? But when the drawdowns happen, like
in April, you'll wish you had learned those skills. That's when you'll wish you had had
them. That when the game, when the game, when the going gets tough, you know, that's when
you wish you had swung a sword before, right? Like, it's not, it's not a, like, you know, like,
I'm sure there's some great philosophical Confucius quote about this along the lines,
but it's basically the concept of, like, God, no, you know, there is a great quote,
is a great quote and I don't think it's Confucius well whose quote is that where
and I don't think it's Confucius. Well, whose quote is that where it says,
it says it's better to be a warrior in a garden than a gardener in a war do you
know who said that I don't know if you've heard that quote okay I might
over here but you hear that quote I've heard the quote I don't know who it's
from anyway if somebody in the audience knows who said that tag me but that's
one of my favorite quotes ever and for people people that didn't hear it, it's better to be a warrior in a garden than a gardener in a war.
And what that means is it's better to be prepared.
It's better to know how to do the thing even if you think you don't need it in that moment.
Right? Like the warrior is going to do fine in the garden,
but the gardener is not going to do fine in the war. Right? And because the gardener never
believed he'd find himself in a war, right? He spent his whole life gardening, right? But the
warrior trained to be a warrior in case that war came and he found himself in a garden.
Beautiful.
That's blissful.
If you find yourself in a bull market and you're a skilled trader, great.
You'll do even better.
But if you find yourself in a hard market and you didn't take the time to learn the skills when things were easy, then you're going to wish, damn, I wish I had that opportunity back.
then you're going to wish, damn, I wish I had that opportunity back.
So take the easy times to learn the skills and not the hard times.
So you wait till the hard times to learn the skills.
That's when you blow up accounts.
That's when you give back performance.
That's when the roof starts falling out.
And that's what most traders fail on is they wait till those moments of desperation to,
to, to scramble and try to learn things and just not the way you should do it.
Yeah. That, that I've heard the quote before. I I'm not sure who's, I'm actually interested.
I'm gonna have to look it up and see, but it's very similar. So a couple of similar quotes that I've always,
you know, kind of lived by and have helped me is one of them just, I was sitting in a
realtor's office doing some business stuff and I looked at the wall and it said, opportunity
wasn't knocking. So I built a door. And the thing was like, you're sitting around, you
know, doing nothing, wishing you had an opportunity, but you're not prepared for that opportunity if it does show up. And then of course, the simple one
that I think really goes with this is, you know, you think about the harder I work, the luckier I
get. That's the one that also resonates very well in this conversation in my brain is, you know,
the more you work, yeah, you think some people get lucky, but it, you, the, the more you work, yeah, you, you think
some people get lucky, but it's, it's funny, the more work that you put in, the luckier
you will end up getting.
I always say that, you know, whenever I, whenever we hit a big win in the discord, I always
like to say that as a locker skill, I don't know but if it is luck we're getting awfully lucky right you tend to get awfully lucky when you're prepared yeah 100 you know that's when
you know like i post all these things people are like how are you in centrist and nebius and
robin hood and joe b like how are you in all all these stocks i'm not making it up you can go see
the live alerts all timestamped in our
community when we entered them, why we entered them. They all doubled. Is that luck or is that
good stock picking? I would argue that it's the latter. And what does that come from? Yeah,
it comes from my experience, but it also comes from the fact that I work my fucking ass off.
I really work like a dog in the markets.
You guys don't see it here because you guys see me come into these spaces at the end of the day and talk for two hours about trading strategy and about individual stocks.
But you guys do not see me get up in the morning and grind every day.
I grind like actually in the morning. Like I sit down and read dense
information. A lot of it, I look at hundreds of charts a week, not a day, but a week. Hundreds.
You know, flipping through daily, weekly setups. Okay, is the structure intact? What's the catalyst
look like? When's the last time a catalyst was out on the stock?
What are the last six major catalysts? How did the stock perform? Okay, what sort of move can
I expect here? How do I position myself? Okay, I'm going to start with shares. I'm going to work
into a 10 call position. Like I build out these, these plans of approach, sophisticated plans of
approach with real information to back the position. That's how
you win consistently. If you want to win over and over and over again, you want to keep picking
these stocks like we do. That's what you have to do. It's not an easy thing. If it was easy to just
pick stock that doubles and doubles and doubles time after time after time, everybody would be
billionaire and there would be no need for for education of every kind it's not easy
but if you put in an insane amount of work and build an insane amount of experience you'll find
that you're going to get very lucky in markets and and the people who are skeptical of your process
will always paint it as luck because you know when I first came onto the Twitter scene,
the catalyst trading, I don't want to say I started the catalyst trading theme on Twitter,
but I think I was definitely one of the early pioneers of it. But catalyst trading was not a
big thing when I came onto the Twitter scene in 2020. And when I started talking about catalyst
trading, a lot of older investors who have been in the game for 20 or 30 years laughed at me.
They were like, there's no way this kid can consistently outperform with this silly catalyst strategy.
It's too crapshoot.
It doesn't make any sense.
What do you mean?
How can you differentiate a quality catalyst from a worse catalyst?
People just called bullshit right but for five three years straight i've outperformed the market and shown it and
time stamped all my positions and i've had a community in the background following me for
years and watching me do this so i mean i don't know what else to prove to say that it works but
it does work you know nothing works for five years straight in the market.
And you can't, after that sort of level of exposure
and how many crashes have we had in those five years?
I was going to tell you,
and think about the last five years,
we've had a crash, V-shape, we've had a bear market,
we've had a crash.
It's been tested in every environment. mean it's been tested in every environment
you know the strategy has been tested in every environment like you said 2022 peak to trough
30 decline stocks down all year 2020 flash crash uh 20 early 2025 20 drawdown more than 20 drawdown
from the highs on tariff fears inflation Inflation sell off in early 2021.
You can go on and on.
August to July correction in stocks last year, there was actually two 10% or maybe even three 10% corrections last year.
Okay, what else can you throw at me?
Throw another 30% crash at me.
Okay, do it.
Do it tomorrow.
I will manage through it. I have zero,
I have zero doubt that I will manage through the next crash. I've managed through every single
crash I've been through in 12 years. There have been like six or seven, 30% peak to trough declines
in the 12 years I've traded. I've managed through every single one. So like what, like what the
market goes down 99% and never comes back? Okay, maybe I lose in that scenario.
But the truth is that that's not going to happen, first of all.
The market's not going to go down 99% and never come down.
The markets will always go up in the long term.
That's the first reality.
But the second truth is I didn't start by being good.
I started by sucking.
And you guys need to be very clear about that because just because I speak from a position of experience and outperformance now doesn't mean that I was,
I came out the womb that way. I'm not some stock market savant. I was supposed to be a doctor.
I never even thought about the stock market till I was 18. So yeah, I mean, you don't need to be a savant. You don't
need to be an expert and you don't need to be good when you start. In fact, you're not going
to be good when you start. There's going to be flashes and moments where you think you're good,
but you're not going to be good when you start. When you start, you're going to be bad and you should be bad.
I was bad, too.
But over time, if you're smart and if you pay attention to the things you did wrong and you work repeatedly to improve that process over time and actually do it in a sophisticated, focused, disciplined way, then you will get better. But if you do it lazily, or you're half-assed,
you don't think about sizing properly, you don't think about your stock picks properly,
you don't think about your entries and exits properly, you don't bother learning how to read
a chart, you don't bother learning how to read a balance sheet. If you just choose to not do these
things, then you are going to suck at stock picking. And it's going to be nobody's fault
but your own. Tough love, but this is the truth.
You have nobody to blame.
If you're a bad stock picker or you're bad in the markets or you're bad at managing your portfolio, you literally have nobody to blame but yourself.
Period.
Either hand it off to the S&P 500, which is, there's no shame in that.
Most people in the world should do that.
people in the world should do that either dump all your money into the smb 500 and hand it off
Either dump all your money into the S&P 500 and hand it off to the professionals to do it.
to the professionals to do it or give it to a money manager to do it which i strongly recommend
against because most of them are leeches and don't do much for you these days besides buy the smb 500
anyway just ask just ask ai yeah exactly or just ask i would almost rather ask ai at this point
and pay a management fee yeah that's jay gbt uh, what a standard management allocation would look like.
But my point is, if you want to do it the hard way, come on.
The water's warm.
I love it.
I've made a living off doing it.
I think there's a ton of opportunity there, if you want to do it the hard way.
And by the hard way, I mean stock picking.
But if you want to do it the easy way and just buy indexes and chill, no shame.
Zero shame.
Okay?
Zero shame.
Don't let anyone shame you.
And the thing you'll have to do, though, if you do choose to take that route, is you're
going to have to suspend your FOMO.
You're going to have to realize that that route isn't going to give you 200% returns on the
year. That route is going to give you steady 70% returns on the year, but it'll compound.
And over 10 years, that could be a lot, life-changing amount of money for you.
So decide who you want to be. That's up to you. That's not up to me to decide or anyone else to
decide. That's up to you based on your risk tolerance and who you are as a person and all that good stuff. And if you're not going to be a person, you're going to be a person that's up to you that's not up to me to decide or anyone else decide that's up to you based on your risk tolerance and who you are as a person and all that good stuff and if you
have decided to do it the hard gritty way of stock picking individual stocks and building a portfolio
around them know that you have picked the hard way and know that it is also the rewarding way too
but it requires work if you're not willing to do
that work then don't even bother really don't bother just buy an index and chill and you'll
do fine and you'll do great honestly and you can go to you know have a nice vacation and enjoy your
life but anyway we've been going on and on damn i was supposed to be on vacation and over here i am
over doing four hour stocks on spaces on spaces. You said it yesterday.
You don't ever take real vacations.
I'm the same way. I don't either.
I posted... Are you a Peaky Blinders
fan? Yeah.
Okay, so I posted that quote
from Peaky Blinders in our Discord today.
I was like, Francis, one
thing I've learned, there's no rest for me in this life.
Maybe the next. Maybe the next
one. Yep.
I'm going to force you to jump off here.
Every time I'm about to go on a vacation,
I know there's a couple of our Discord members in the
crowd. I don't even remember when I went on
the last vacation, dude.
I travel with a small, I always joke,
I travel with a small circuit city.
My carry-on's got all kinds
of computer electronics and
microphones and all that stuff in it. No matter where I'm going. I'm sitting at the
beach and I'll like be in the condo until like 2 p.m. before I go out there.
Yeah, I'm about to get something to eat and maybe hit the gym and yeah we will see you guys what
tomorrow I will be here no more vacation for me so I'll be here I'm gonna be
coming back in town probably Friday I'll get a flight back so yeah we'll see you
guys then but go back and listen to this.
I gave a lot, I tried to give a lot of strategy talks today.
If you're new and you're trying to build a strategy, I know it might be annoying to
sit fast forward through or sift through, but I really did give a lot of tidbits today
on very specific things that I do.
Very specific things about management and about, you know, even if you want to scroll to the end,
just about 20 minutes ago, Amp asked me two very good questions about weighting management
and profit taking, which are hugely important topics, hugely important in order to be a better
performer. So go back and listen to that little
tidbit if you want to just listen to that part. But do the work, you know, and by do the work,
I don't mean listen to what I say. I mean, listen to the things that I pointed out and these
strategic aspects that I pointed out and go explore them on your own and see what works for
you and what works for your portfolio and try to start integrating them.
Remember, anytime you want to try something new in the markets, please don't do it with a lot of money.
Please do it with a small amount of money so that you don't hurt yourself.
Try things with a small amount of money first and then size up when you're confident and when you're experienced.
I'm going to do it right away.
Anyway, love you guys. We'll see're experienced. I'm going to do it right away. So, yeah, anyway, love you guys.
We'll see you tomorrow.
Take it easy.
And tag me on Twitter if you have questions about any of the stuff I talked about today.
I'll respond to you guys.
But, yeah, take it easy.
There it is.
All right, Sok Talk.
Take care.
We'll see you tomorrow afternoon, everyone.
Thanks for joining in.
Great show today, honestly. A lot of great information all the way through.
Back tomorrow, and we have Netflix earnings after the bell rings, so we'll be live. We'll
get those numbers out to everyone. Hope you have a great rest of your night. We'll see you then. Thank you.
