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INVESTING WITH AI | PROSPERO AI
Recorded: Sept. 9, 2025 Duration: 3:06:54Space Recording
Short Summary
Nebius secures a $17 billion partnership with Microsoft, propelling its stock by 50% and highlighting the growing trend of retail investors leveraging AI tools like Prospero AI for trading insights.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
What day of the week is it?
Tuesday.
Lost track of time as slow as this afternoon's been.
Happy Tuesday, September the 9th, Power Hour.
Welcome to the Cosmic Orange Innovation innovation space we are excited to talk about
everything that there's only one thing really to talk about today it's the cosmic orange i don't
know if anybody has anything else please save it for the second hour of the show we're going to
spend the entire first hour on cosmic orange and sleeping in a apple watch so please prepare your thoughts accordingly tell me now and boy i don't
know how i kept a straight face like through all that i was trying not to all right quick market
updates obviously we did have the apple event this afternoon they uh are now down in red overall
market is green we're up 0.16 we had a little morning dip and just an algo grind to the upside here in the afternoon.
NASDAQ, exactly the same, basically 0.17%.
It's up a dollar.
If you look at QQQ, a dollar on SPY.
IWM, a little red today, down 50%, or 0.5%.
I'm so sorry, 0.5%.
And of course, one of the big headlines, we did get that bls revision 911 000 jobs revised
so i'm sure we'll talk about that some uh but please keep all of your focus uh actually let's
save all the thoughts just in case evan shows up it would be awful convenient if he didn't show up
today but uh yeah there we are oh he's not showing up. There's no chance he's showing up. He has the perfect excuse not to show up for a day like today,
and he will probably play that card.
But we'll see what happens.
Maybe he stops by and we all get to have a little bit of fun.
We also have the Nebius, a name that has been mentioned, I don't know, once, twice, 25 times on the space that had an insane news headline yesterday.
So we'll touch on that today as well.
Shout out to Stock Talk with that one.
And let's go ahead and dive into it a little bit.
Stock Talk, do you want to kick us off with any of that?
Or do you want me to go ahead and jump into the panel a little bit?
I mean, I'm going to do a whole victory lap and rant,
so we can wait for that until we get to the end.
Oh, crap.
That's going to be the apex right there.
I mean, when your second largest position goes up by 50% in one day
and you've been panning the table on it for months and months and months,
then, you know, I think a victory lap is well-deserved.
So should we all just, like, log off now and let you and let you rant for the next hour and a half, two hours?
No, we can do that.
We're all good with that.
We're going to build our way up to that.
I'll save that.
And by the way, my friend, it's well deserved.
So I'm just having fun with you.
Conviction pays, man.
Conviction pays.
It does.
There you have it.
A little teaser for what's to come later in the show right there.
Options Mike, go ahead and kick us into it a little bit here. Jobs numbers, obviously, we have some news that are doing well today. It's a mixed day, not really much to talk about in the broader perspective of what's going on. Some individual stories, I'm sure. market's looking to tomorrow, right? And that PPI number, remember that PPI number last time came in really hot at 0.9%. So we're supposed to get a 0.3% tomorrow is what seems to be the average. You know, these numbers are always questionable, right? Depending on who you listen to. So that's a big number, because if that comes in hot again, this means it's not a one month deal for the inflation, right? So the market's looking at that.
month deal for the inflation right so the market's looking at that so we're kind of sitting around
here stuck at the moment and you have some names that are moving uh google after yesterday's
reversal candle new all-time high and raging here hood just exploded to a new all-time high and i
do mean exploded in the last 10 minutes just absolutely raging uh amazon up you know, if you didn't hit the news about 15 minutes ago, Microsoft's going to buy
anthropic algorithms from Amazon. What does that say about their relationship with open AI and
what they think of open AI? They're going to pay their competitor to get to anthropic.
That's telling to me, right? So, so you know amazon here now um four bucks from
all-time highs still long calls on that one um what else today a core we couldn't push took me
for a little ride i'll let i'm not touching nbis that's stock that's stock charts place to let
him talk about all that that's his place to go Palantir broke above the 21 day today and is holding it here until the close.
Let's talk about Apple.
I know Evan's not going to come on today.
By the way, Hood has their event at 830 Eastern time tonight, so just keep that in mind.
So Apple, this was a very typical iPhone refresh event.
iPhone refresh event. I mean, it was, you know, shortest one we've seen in a long time.
I mean, it was the shortest one we've seen in a long time.
The biggest thing to me, the thing biggest takeaway there was the the AirPods with the
live translate built into it where you have to have an Apple phone and the ability to just listen
and translate for you real time. I thought that was probably the best feature and thing they talked
about through the whole thing. Everything else, nothing that's the highlight though and i saw they sold duolingo off on that if you
look duolingo was up five percent on the day and was down three and a half percent the last time i
looked at it but beyond that both people have to have that the like me and you would both have to
have the generation three airpods in our ears to be able to have a conversation otherwise you're
going to a market you can understand what they're saying and then you're just pointing but you can
at least understand what they're saying i mean you could at least interpret it to a you can talk
into your phone and hold it up to them and it'll like do the conversation back and forth it's not
like uh back and forth it's just happening in real time natively again there was nothing and there
was nothing wrong what they did right their
new phones are fine they're faster they're better they're this the watch is fine it's faster it's
better but they're just product refreshes and if you're a true apple head you're going to go out
and buy them right away because that's what you do and if you need a refresh you're going to go
out and get them nothing there to make me say i need to switch to become an apple iphone guy i'm i'm on been
on pixel now for the last six plus seven years um you know nothing there that makes that moves
that needle for me in my opinion um outside of that oh i shorted apple on the end of the call
made some nice money there coins had a nice move today up but it was very name specific and it wasn't a
lot of names that were actually in motion today and the market's waiting it really is waiting to
hear you know what's that inflation number look like tomorrow is that cool and then we see a bump
in cpi on thursday because it as it works this way through the system or is this something that's
firmer because again i don't think that there's no I think there's no chance the Fed doesn't do a cut
in next Wednesday, but if that number is hot, you could be a one and done, and it could be a 0.25,
and the market's kind of pricing in a 0.50 rate cut at this point next week. Look at the bond
market. Other than that, it's just kind of a quiet day um i will add one other thing we kind
of touched upon we've been talking about this nebulously talking about this bubble concept on
and off here on on different spaces i do with you guys and you know that that moved you know yesterday
we had that move what was the name or what does it um octo oct right? And today you had CWD.
And these are the things that start setting up warning bells in my head.
And, you know, it's the, we're moving these things on nothing.
Like that move today from $2 to $56 on CWD because they bought a token that nobody knows about or uses.
Huh?
And this is where you start getting that rabbit speculation
coming into the market and that doesn't mean that the market's going to come down and crash tomorrow
or anytime soon it means just realize where you're at when you see stuff like this you need to just
practice restraint and say let it go i don't care if it goes you know i don't care if i could have
gotten it at 25 and it went to 55. Let it go.
That's how I kind of look at it.
I just ignore it and move on.
Yeah, if anything, the translation thing, I just don't see it because both people have to have the same product to be able to use it.
I just don't see where that.
They don't.
But I mean, you could have it. If you go someplace, you could have it if you go someplace you could have it and if somebody
a lot of these people speak a little bit of english so if they're speaking in spanish they
might understand what you're saying if you're in another country or at least understand it
and can point to what you want yeah i just don't see where that just i don't know it doesn't move
the needle for me it's not a it's not a needle mover. I said it was the best.
Yeah. Well, that was the problem. That's my point. That's the problem.
That was the, I mean, it's interesting, right?
But at the same time, it's like, okay, I just don't see the application of that being any type of big deal at all.
And then, you know, an iPhone Air for for a thousand bucks it's just thinner but the phone
was still huge yeah i'm not the phone the camera the camera still stuck out way beyond it i'm like
okay way out yeah so i'm like okay yeah that that piece was interesting um you know you you mentioned
that the octo i i noticed coinbase looks like it's setting up for a decent move.
Palantir had a decent move today.
There were some things that did well.
Wow, Coinbase up 5% now.
Coinbase is having a really good day.
There were names that moved.
What they hated yesterday, they liked it.
Meta, they popped it and they killed it yesterday.
Today they ran it right back up.
We're not in a trending market. We're in a trading market, right?
The market's trading, but we're not trending.
It's waiting for something to break it one way or the other.
Four weeks in a less than 3% range on the S&P 500.
Will be interesting to see.
Thanks for kicking us off your options, Mike.
Thanks, dude.
Jump back in.
By the way, how's the little girl?
Doing wonderful.
A little spoiled.
Getting used to being in arms a little bit too much, but what can you do?
That's what you're supposed to do, man.
We watched a great fourth quarter of the Vikings last night together,
so it's going well.
It isn't quite there yet, but that part went well.
Thanks for asking.
Appreciate that.
Brian Lund, I want to bring you into the conversation it's going well. It's quite there yet, but that part went well. Thanks for asking. Appreciate that.
Brian Lund,
I want to bring you into the conversation and see how you've been navigating these markets.
Any thoughts around anything that we've hit on so far?
What's been on your radar?
Yeah.
So I'm in my car.
I've been shuffling back and forth between my house and future proof this
week.
Got to finally meet Evan in person. I'd met Gab before, but never met Evan.
Still haven't met Stock Talk. He kind of ghosted me when I was out in McKinney last year, but that's okay.
And you know what? Let's just address this whole stock talk NBIS thing.
Okay, yes, yes, you've been pounding the table on it.
Yes, it's up 50%.
But that was yesterday.
I mean, like, what have you done for me lately, dude?
Anyway, yeah, I've been watching Oklo or Oklo.
I was pretty adamant when it retested 50 EMA a few days ago that it looked good.
It's moving pretty nice today.
I was trying to probe into Apple today.
It got stopped out, unfortunately, before the news or the reaction to their conference.
um everybody's watching msos the uh the number one analyst on that mike tyson says that uh
Everybody's watching MSOS.
rescheduling is going to happen quick uh we're waiting on that i've got some calls on msos what
else do i have um i think that's about it i've got some amazon excuse me um i'd really like to
hear stock talks take on asts. It's been trading like hot
death lately. Obviously, there was the news about, I don't know, somebody sold Spectrum to
Tesla. Of course, the ASTS bulls say that's good long term. Price sure doesn't look like it is,
but I'd love to hear Stock Talk weigh in on that when he comes on. So that's about it. I've just
been spending a lot of time at the beach just hanging out.
Kind of try to keep my finger on the pulse of the financial planning wealth industry.
Got a big concert tonight with Blues Travelers and Bush.
So that's what I'm doing right now.
Makes perfect sense.
Do you feel like we're still in the summer lull or are you or is it just shifted
later it feels like july type of price action yeah i mean so i think that friday's bar was
really interesting uh i it's very rare that there is one single candle that is that significant but
i think that one was you know that was the gap up drop at one point we had a
bearish engulfing on the spy we didn't end up that way but I told my subscribers on Friday I
think short term that candle is going to be key if we can get above it we probably continue just
going higher if we go below it it's probably going to be a little bit of risk off in the
short term but you know I think this market kind of is doing a version of
what Mike's been talking about, a melt up, you know. And I also think that you've got to look
at the signs of this market. This is a this isn't an analogy I give all the time. Right. And it's
based upon the Sherlock Holmes story, Hounds of the Baskervilles. And the whole idea of this story
is somebody gets murdered. And for some reason, the hounds of the Baskervilles, the hounds of the Baskervilles. And the whole idea of this story is somebody gets murdered and for some
reason the hounds of the Baskervilles, the hounds on the estate, don't bark, right? They should bark
when whoever this intruder is comes onto the estate and murders the caretaker. And the fact
that they don't bark is a sign. And the sign is, oh, the dogs knew whoever the assailant was. And that's how they
narrow it down. Today, when we drop that little 911,000 job reversal, I think a lot of people
thought the market was going to sell off. And I wouldn't have been surprised if it did, but it
didn't. It firmed up and then it started to grind higher. Sometimes when you think what should happen doesn't happen, that's a big signal.
I think it's a signal on how strong this market is.
And I think if tomorrow's numbers around inflation are tame or the market thinks they're tame, I think we could start ripping higher.
so that's where I'm at right now
So that's where I'm at right now.
StockTuck
do you want to hit on ASTS or do you want me to
continue around
I don't know if you're back from
he's eating cucumbers somewhere I'm sure
I have some thoughts on ASTS
if you guys want me to share
yeah absolutely Hamid jump in because I can't hear StockTuck I saw him on mute I can't hear him I'm sure. I have some thoughts on ASTS, if you guys want me to share. Yeah, absolutely.
Hamid, jump in because I can't hear Stock Talk.
I saw him on mute.
I can't hear him.
So, Hamid, how are you?
I'm good.
I'm good.
So, just being a Rocket Lab investor, you get exposed to ASTS just because those names
come up together quite frequently.
I think what ASTS is trying to do with direct to sell is a
potentially like enormous market opportunity. But the problem with ASTS is that there are so many
magical technologies that have to sort of work perfectly in order for them to be able to execute
on their business plan. And none of it is essentially proven. They've basically demonstrated single calls via their satellite. And the idea is that a handful of satellites
are going to be able to support direct to sell
for millions of potential users worldwide.
And ASTS is in the best position to be able to execute on it,
which is how they have gotten this story to be valued
at as much as like $20 billion valuation.
And that valuation just seems kind of ridiculously high
for so many unproven things.
And then their pace of satellite deployments
was supposed to be two per month starting in July of this year
in order to get 40 satellites into space, into orbit.
And with 40 satellites, they're supposed to provide global coverage.
And they haven't put up any of those satellites yet.
They keep delaying them every month.
So to me, that just seems like, you know, this is a company that doesn't have a proven track record yet.
They haven't delivered anything.
They have zero revenue.
And they're still valued at over 10 10 billion dollars and they they compete with spacex by the way so
uh that's like a combination of really tough things and tough place to be in my opinion
hey can you hear me now yes sir okay sorry i don't know why you couldn't hear me earlier. I was trying to respond to Brian.
Yeah, we owned ASCS for a little bit.
That was more momentum trade.
Not in it anymore on this technical breakdown.
You know, when I buy pre-revenue stocks, I don't invest in them.
I'm playing the momentum.
Same thing with Joby earlier this year.
Same thing with SMR.
In fact, SMR actually went higher from where we sold it,
but that doesn't matter to me.
That's not the point of what I'm saying. The point is not whether the stock goes
higher or lower after I buy or sell it. The thing is, is position designation. To be a great
portfolio manager, in my opinion, you need to be able to designate positions accurately. You need
to know why you own them. I'll talk about this later with Nebius and all these other high
conviction stocks that I've had this year that I've held even after they've doubled and why I've held them.
Right. Like when I bought Nebius at 24, went to 50, people were like, you should sell it.
Last week, you know, there was a insider sale file for 200 million on Nebius and people like you should sell it.
And I was like, no, because I understand the story.
And then today the stock was up 50 percent. Right.
Like that's because that's a high conviction position for me on positions like ASTS or Joe B or SMR, these pre-revenue momentum names.
I'm not investing in them. I'm playing the momentum. And so when the momentum breaks down,
I sell them. So long story short, I don't want to ASTS anymore because of the technical breakdown,
but I do think if it defends this 36 spot on the monthly, and if we get a monthly close above this 36 spot,
I think it'll have a nice rebound.
So not in it anymore,
but I do think there's an interesting spot
where it is down at 36.
If it holds that monthly area,
I think you can see some relief.
As to Hamid's comments about the story,
yes, I think the valuation is excessive.
I felt the same way when I sold Joby.
We got in to Joby at 950, sold it at 18.
I don't know what it is now, like 13 or 14.
SMR got in at 1850, sold at 36.
I don't know what it is now, like 50 or something.
But with ASDS, you know, I had 25 calls, exercised them, took the stock at 25, had a 2880 effective cost basis.
I was willing to hold with that cost basis as long as the
momentum held. But when the momentum broke down, you know, I'm either risking allowing the stock
to go back to my cost basis to give up the profits, or, you know, I have to like build
an artificial thesis to justify holding it. And I'm not really in the business of doing that.
Usually for me, my positions follow the guidelines of my initial thesis. And sometimes my initial thesis leaves
room open to be a longer term holder of the position. And that's come to fruition with
some of the stocks I've talked about the last few years, like Robinhood, for example.
Nebius from the very beginning was intended to be a core position. So that's not
really one of them. But, you know, Centris is a stock that i've loved for a lot of years i used to own in the
40s sold in the 80s bought it back in 96 earlier this year that's a redesignated as a core position
now so i i mean on asds's point it was just a management decision long story short and you know
sometimes i make management decisions and the stocks go significantly higher from where i sold them sometimes i make management decisions and the stocks go significantly higher from where I sold them.
Sometimes I make management decisions and the stocks go lower from where I sold them.
But I don't really think about that.
I just think about it as a portfolio manager.
I care about overall performance of the portfolio, right?
And like today, you know, even in what was sort of a divided market today, ripped to
new all-time highs with the portfolio back to 150% year to date.
So I'm fine with the way I manage it. But yeah, do I think this thing could rebound from here? Potentially if it defends this monthly spot. But yeah, the valuation is of course
excessive. It is for most of the pre-revenue companies that are out there right now. It's
really a matter of what you value the overall market opportunity at and what you see the level
of penetration at. And the thing that most people disagree on is not either of those factors. Most
people just disagree on the timeline in which that penetration will happen. And that's usually what
leads to valuation differences for stocks, because there's some people that think that it's imminent
and there's other people that think it'll take 10 years. And the discount of cash flows
between those two theses is enormous.
So you have to factor that in
when you're thinking about these.
Would I ever short any of these types of names?
Joe B, ASTS, SMR, any of these?
No, I would never even attempt to short them
because that's just like a losing game,
short stocks like that.
So yeah, I will trade them.
If ASDS returns to momentum on the daily and weekly,
I will maybe get long again,
but it's not a high conviction position for me.
So I let it go due to the loss of technical momentum.
That's just me answering Brian's question from earlier.
Oh, there you have it.
Amit, I wanted to see if you had any other thoughts
that you wanted to share with us today.
Obviously we saw the Apple event,
we saw some other things going on that Nebbiast story.
What else has been on your radar?
Anything that you're turning up, kicking over some stones
or are you just kind of riding it out right now?
Couple of thoughts.
The Apple event, I was surprised
that there was no talk of AI whatsoever.
So that was kind of interesting.
I guess somebody pointed out
that they're separating software and hardware events.
I don't know, does that mean
that there's an upcoming AI events
that might happen sometime soon?
Tim Cook stated like three months ago,
when they were ready for AI, they would do a complete separate event.
So I wasn't expecting any AI from this one at all.
Okay, okay. So that's interesting.
I mean, that means basically they're still not ready,
which just seems kind of like very disappointing.
The fact that they just have basically new uh new faster better
hardware and cameras is is i don't know like how long when was the last time you were complaining
about the speed of your phone or its camera like that that's just not a driving factor for um for
innovation anymore i like what i wanted to see from apple is not the iPhone Air, but rather the iPhone AI, where AI is sort of central to everything that the phone is about.
And that's not happening.
So that was pretty disappointing.
Robinhood getting included in S&P 500, that's interesting.
So that happened, obviously, on Friday, but stock popped yesterday. As a result of that, around 15%.
Robinhood is one of my biggest holdings, so that was kind of exciting.
I'm excited for Meta's upcoming events in September.
So Meta Connects, they're expected to release not only newer versions of their Ray-Ban smart glasses,
which are roughly around $300,
but also another edition of it that's going to have a display built in
to the glasses for around $800 is what the expected price is.
So that also will be super interesting.
It's the same price as the Apple Watch, believe it or not.
Right, right.
And, you know, like them introducing an iPhone Air for $1,000,
that just seems like quite excessive, you know.
So, you know, if you don't have to buy a new phone,
buying these glasses instead might be the way to go
and get, you know, heads-up display
and get, you know, heads up display as opposed to reaching for your phone all the time.
as opposed to reaching for your phone all the time.
So, yeah, I mean, those are the things that I've been thinking of.
Continued to build up my position in Bumble.
I think that company is just severely undervalued.
Yeah, that's about it.
That Robinhood event tonight, is there anything that the mainframe, enter the mainframe, is there anything that you're looking for as far as that goes tonight?
Maybe some of the feature we talked about this.
I don't know if you were part of the space, but we talked about the other day kind of the lack of active trader products.
And that was one of the tweets that they did put out yesterday was about that.
Is there anything you're looking for tonight or any intel around that?
I don't have any intel around it, but I think Robinhood has been like executing really well.
And what I want them to do is accelerate the deployment plans.
They've been like announcing new products pretty well.
like announcing new products pretty well.
But in a lot of cases, the products that they have announced
are not yet in customers' hands, right?
Like the 3% cashback credit card is largely not in customers' hands.
They have deployed a few hundred thousand of them so far.
I happen to have mine, and it's a great credit card,
but I want to see large-scale deployment of that.
I want to see large-scale deployment of their banking product, which hasn't been deployed yet.
So Robinhood is doing a great job of adding new capabilities and features and products.
But now I want to see large-scale deployments of everything.
Did you see Bernstein's note this morning on Robinhood?
No, I haven't seen it yet.
What did they say?
Excellent.
It was excellent.
They reiterated $160 price target.
I'll send you some excerpts from it later because I know you'll be interested because you're a shareholder too.
They said, we believe, based on five proprietary data sets, that Robinhood will be the sole financial services market leader for the new generation.
And they make this argument with like five comprehensive charts.
It was a fucking great report, dude.
That was kind of reports is like every time I read a report like that, I'm like, this is why I read Wall Street Research.
But it was phenomenal.
And they talked exactly about what you're talking about for their new aspirational banking suite with gold subscribers.
They talked about how they have over 300K cards issued so far and over a million people in the waiting queue.
And they said their gold program gives them leverage to be able to begin offering features seamlessly, like private banking features, mortgage offerings, BNPL.
seamlessly, like private banking features, mortgage offerings, BNPL. And they said with
management's execution path currently, we believe these features are soon to come. We'll add best
in class product velocity and monetization. We expect Robinhood to be the largest market share
grower in the financial categories in the entire global equities market is how they ended the note.
And it was like, I read that note and I was like, holy shit.
But yeah, Robinhood is killing it.
I'll send it to you later in the DMs.
I'll send you some excerpts from it.
Yeah, that'd be awesome.
Yeah, I mean, I love their execution path.
They're like the Costco of the financial industry.
It's extremely super low cost, very customer oriented.
And for like a $60 membership fee, they give you everything for like, you know, with extremely low margins on their side, right?
Like for free on your side, but extremely low margins on their side, which is like amazing execution.
And, you know, like I think their banking product is going to be a huge hit as well.
And they get to market it to 25 million customers that they have. So they're in a great position to continue rapid growth, and especially with sort of worldwide execution now in Europe.
And I'm sure they're going to eventually get into Asia as well. So, yeah, they have a lot of room for growth.
Yeah, Bernstein shows a chart, too, in that report,
and they said they expect $300 billion to $500 billion of liquid inheritance
to go to the younger generation for each of the next five years.
That's insane. Wow, that is insane.
And they're projecting that a huge portion of that is going to go to commission-free brokerage
apps like Robin Hood. And I don't think they're wrong about that. And, you know, like, put yourself
in the shoes today. I mean, like, literally today, not like in this time today, put yourself in the shoes of like a 24 year old kid who just inherited half a million dollars in cash from his parents
that passed away or even a 30 year old kid, 35 year old. Like, what are they going to do with it?
Okay. Maybe some of them will buy a Ferrari or like whatever, but the reasonable ones are probably going to put it into a broker job.
Probably. Maybe they'll put some of it into a bank account. They're at least going to put some
significant portion of that into a broker job and they're going to buy stocks, you know, and
that's a lot of money that's going to turn over. I mean, even if Bernstein's, let's say Bernstein's
off on those figures by a hundred billion a year, let's say it's 250 billion a year at the low end for the next five years.
That's a trillion dollars in capital that's flowing to young kids, frankly, you know, people
who don't have the same perception of finance as traditional people. Like how many 24 year old kids
are calling a financial advisor, Charles Schwab and saying, I just inherited this money and like this, this and this.
And what do I do with it?
I don't know.
I don't know if the propensity to do that is as high as it was just 10 years ago, not even a generation ago, just 10 years ago.
I don't think the propensity is as high to do that.
In fact, I think if 10 years ago you asked a 25 year old that question, they probably would say that.
Yeah, I'm going to go to a financial advisor, Charles Schwab, and I'll call him and see what to do with money.
Today, I think that same 25 year old is I'm going to go to a financial advisor, Charles Schwab, and I'll call him and see what to do with the money. Today, I think that same 25-year-old would say,
I'm going to put it into Robinhood. I'm just going to deposit it into Robinhood and invest.
Like, you know, that's a big difference. And I think there's a reason that stock is enjoying
such a premium and has just relentless strength versus the market for the past 18 months is because
I think other people see this coming too. And that's not really
a trend you can buck. Like you can't fade that trend. That is too powerful a trend to fade.
You're talking about trillions of dollars of capital. That's not only changing hands. It's
not about just the money flow. It's changing hands, which have a different way of managing
that capital, right? It's not like it's going from 65-year-old retiree to another 65-year-old
retiree. It's going from, you know, somebody's parents who are passing away to a much younger
participant in the market who thinks differently about markets, who speculates differently,
and who thinks about money management differently, frankly. So that trend of like
differently, frankly. So that trend of like younger people thinking more speculatively and
ambitiously about finance is not like a fleeting thing. That trend is going to get magnified as
more and more money enters the pockets of those people. Because the way you look at behavioral
trends in finance is by how they impact the financial ecosystem. And that impact is directly
proportional to the amount of dollars that fit that behavior. And so prior to this huge
inheritance wave that's coming, people are like, oh, you know, yeah, there is this sporadic,
speculative and financially ambitious behavior amongst the younger generation, but it's not yet
felt globally in markets and economies because
they don't have enough money yet to make that impact.
That is going to gradually change over the next five to 10 years as they inherit hundreds
of billions, trillions of dollars, if you look at it in a global perspective.
So yeah, that Robinhood is arguably the biggest beneficiary of that on the entire stock market,
in my opinion.
And I think stocks in general, frankly, are a beneficiary of that on the entire stock market, in my opinion. And I think stocks in general, frankly, are a beneficiary of that.
You know, what's crazy is that one person represents like 200 billion or a couple hundred
billion dollars of that inheritance going down, probably.
Warren Buffett, he's got to be on the list of expected people
to pass down that over the next five years.
It's kind of sad, actually, but it's kind of crazy
that he represents 20% of that inheritance number.
Yeah, I mean, I guess if they're including that, yeah.
But yeah, I mean, I think the global figures can usually be much bigger than that obviously it's hard to
project like you know it's hard to correlate like death rates to the amount of inheritance because
that varies dramatically in demographic regions and like it's really hard to to correlate that
data so the estimates are,
frankly, all over the place, you know, like, I saw another estimate from like Evercore,
like last year, that's at like 500 billion a year. So, I mean, I don't know, I don't know what it's
going to be like, I don't know what and what really matters is not what the value of the
inheritance is, it's what matters is like how much liquid capital is being inherited, right? And
like, like, if properties are being inherited, know are they being sold at what rate are they being
sold like all of that affects the the calculus there but i mean hundreds of billions of dollars
that would have gone elsewhere are likely going to speculative stocks in the next five to ten years
as a consequence of that. Like those guys aren't
going to buy, those kids aren't going to buy like industrials and oil and gas stocks. They're just
not, they're not. And, and I think that's another thing too, that, you know, people are missing
about the way markets have been acting the last couple of years and why those types of stocks
are outperforming because there's just frankly a relentless bid underneath them. And there's this, I don't want to say like retail foregoes the need for analysis, but maybe that's
just a simple way to put it. There's not as much of a burden of like proof on a lot of these names
in order for them to go a hundred or 150 or 200% higher. Like I mean, Nebius, which again,
I'll touch on in more detail later about the deal and everything. But that stock tripled for us before this deal even came out on nothing.
That stock went from 24 to 75 on basically nothing. I don't say nothing because there
was a click house deal and there was the AV ride progression and there were developments in the
business for following it closely. But I mean, there was nothing blockbuster that happened since May that should have tripled the stock.
But there is smart institutions and smart retail traders that see these things happening.
Like my first thesis, when I first bought Nebius at $24, the first thing I said was, I think they will secure a major hyperscaler deal.
That was like the first singular part of my thesis.
And that happened today, right?
So you have to find a way to navigate these themes effectively without having to fit every
single position you take into this idea of like, is it going up for a reason?
Or has it gone up too much for no
reason? A lot of times the stocks that are going up too much for no reason are going up in
anticipation of an event. I mean, even look at Cypher, right? Like Cypher, which we made a nice
trade on, I don't own it anymore, but it was up another 20% today in sympathy to NBIS.
You looked at the volume on that thing on the 200-day breakout when it was at like four or five bucks, like you knew something was coming, you know?
And a lot of people get shaken out in the two or three weeks of price action that precedes that, right?
What tends to happen is you get a big move like that on high volume, then everyone gets in, and then you get two or three weeks of price action to just bore everyone out.
And then there you go.
Now it's like whatever, nine or 10 bucks or whatever it hit today. So, you know, so many stocks did that this year, bloom energy, talent energy,
like a million stocks I can think of that did that this year, where they just like squat and
consolidate after, you know, they have this crazy volume move. And then some insane news comes out
a month later or four weeks later. And so you really have to know what you own in this market,
or four weeks later. And so you really have to know what you own in this market, bottom line.
And you also have to know that the reason there are mechanical and structural reasons about retail
participation as to why there are certain stocks that are just dramatically outperforming the
market in these last couple of years and why they're holding up. Like, you know, why isn't
Palantir fallen off a cliff yet? Why isn't Robinhood fallen off a cliff yet? Like, why isn't Palantir fallen off a cliff yet?
Why isn't Robin Hood fallen off a cliff yet?
Like, why haven't these like,
because there's just a relentless retail bid underneath these.
And maybe they will fall off a cliff one day when the story deteriorates,
something really bad happens
and scares enough of the crowd out.
But for now, they've just been impressive stalwarts
of the market that have just consistently
and redundantly outperformed the market
month after month after month. you can't ignore that action.
And you have to ask yourself, if that action defies your reasoning around markets, you
have to ask yourself, and I'm really speaking to the legacy guys here, I'm speaking to the
dot-com era guys, if action in individual stocks is continuously defying what you know
to be reasonable or logical, And I'm not just talking
about right now in the last month. I'm talking about this entire year, the entire year last year,
the entire year 2021, the entire, like, if this action for the last five years is just not making
sense to you, maybe, just maybe, you have to shift your view on market structure and consider the possibility that
zero DT trading, tens of millions of new retail accounts, a higher propensity of risk and
self-reliance in the younger generation, that all of these factors are colliding to shift
the way markets function, albeit however slightly shift the types of stocks that outperform,
shift the duration for which they can outperform, right? Like how many people were like, oh,
the next retail crash, all these guys are dead and all their stocks are dead and all the retail
is going to be wiped out. And then we'll be laughing. Didn't happen. Didn't happen. Two
30% peak to trough declines. Not only are the stocks still standing, 90% of the retail accounts still are too. So it begs consideration from some of the people who
have been in markets for decades who refuse to acknowledge this, that markets may be changing,
not in the sense that they're different from them they ever were before but that you have to be able to consider the
context and say which types of stocks would outperform in a structural shift like this
and to me if i'm a really simple about it i think it's the more speculative ones
Wolfie, can I bring you into the conversation next?
i'll see can i bring you into the conversation next
Because he said something about boomers?
Yeah, when he said boomers, I was like, well, fuck.
Man, I'm cooked.
You're not a boomer, are you?
You're too young to be a boomer.
No, I'm just talking shit.
What do you want me to do here?
Whatever you want.
What do you want to talk about?
What do you want to talk about?
What do you talk about, Nebius?
You know, I bought it around the same time you did as well.
I like it, but let's just talk about it
now. Let's say you fucking missed the boat, right?
Let's say you were like,
oh man, I missed it. Everybody was
talking about it. It was expensive. I was waiting
for a gap or whatever, right?
Well, names like this generally
have drawdowns where
whatever the story is kind of gets checked over and over again.
So I think they got 17 and a half billion commitment from Microsoft.
Let's say there's like, you know, some sort of potential revision, stock sells off, you just pull up your levels, right?
So breakout now happened basically at the 200-day.
That's at $40 level.
It's a lot lower.
I don't think it's going to get to that low, but that's where it's at now.
50 days where people were looking at it yesterday, which has a gap to fill around 60.
But if you're just looking at it for a momentum perspective, you can do this with any stock on any headline, on any gap,
right? So you get an earnings gap, stock gaps up, you're like, oh, I want to buy it.
You know, they basically tell you, give it three days, call it three-day rule,
mark the lows of that three-day range, mark the highs of that three-day range,
trade it one way or the other. Coincidentally or not coincidentally, however you want to look at it, Nebius' prior all-time high sits at today's lows.
So it's not a coincidence, in my opinion, that they came out and bought it today.
Not a thing you want to go chase right off the open after you've heard multiple people talk about it.
Stock Talk adopted as his child for about four months.
I named my child after today, honestly.
What's your name?
My first dog, Nebius.
I love Jim Cramer.
Yeah.
No, so I'd use that 87 level.
Ideally for me, if I want to just from a trading perspective,
I wish I had more of it.
I don't have an insane position. I have a decent position, but nothing insane. like I wish I had more of it. I don't have an insane position and I have a decent position,
but nothing insane.
But I wish I had more of it.
But like from a trading perspective, for me,
ideally what I'd like to see is I'd like them to fill back down to that 75 level,
which was the prior range.
And that would be in line with the 20-day and the 5-day.
That's kind of like where I'd want to trade it just from a trading perspective.
Or I'd want to just keep ripping it, right?
Those are the two, just trading-wise, those are the two things I want to trade it just from a trading perspective, or I'd want to just keep ripping it. Right. Those are the two just trading trading wise.
Those are the two things I want to pay attention to.
And then let's just keep,
let's just keep going.
I guess there was a,
there's a rumor or not a rumor.
There's a,
a tweak going around that,
that Sidney Sweeney's done a campaign for Jimmy Choo.
Depending on...
I haven't dug too crazy, but as far as I understand,
Capri Holdings still owns Jimmy Choo.
There's people that have gone back and forth on these tweets
saying that they agreed to sell to Versace.
I saw that that deal was canceled.
I'm not sure, but if you take a look at Capri Holdings,
setup's really dope.
It's got basically, it's basically in a tight range,
just above its 250-day.
It's got down pretty aggressively.
Stock's been beaten up.
So it's kind of like one of those fun little setups.
And then today they came in and bought Octoberober 17 22 and a half calls pretty aggressively for
that name right so just uh on a relative basis pretty aggressive um and yeah i want to pay
attention see if they if they follow through um you know again low lower beta boringer names that have set setups um or beaten up names that have setups
kind of like what i'm when i'm uh eyeing outside of outside of that um some of these
preseries that everybody everybody's been evan especially who's not here um they're starting to
look like they found some sort of floor so if you take take a look at BMNR, for example, found a floor at the gap up lows from July 1st around $40.
Reclaimed its five days, pressing into a downtrend.
SBET, same thing, pressing into a downtrend, holding its five days today.
These things can break out,
and I think IV's kind of gotten crushed enough
to where maybe you can take a shot on them.
I don't have a position in either of them.
It's not anything I want to trade,
but it's worth mentioning.
Yesterday we talked about the XLV.
Scott and I went back and forth on the XLV.
XLV pressed to its 200 day today and is predominantly driven by that,
that massive UNH move.
You know,
UNH headline this morning um
and they gapped up held and just took off the rest of the day so uh if there's any sort of
follow-through from any of the components the xlb could break out of this downtrend in this 200 day
and it really sets up nicely potentially um for the next you know back half of this quarter amazon today broke out
we talked about that one as well yesterday um you know i talked about it last week as well it's kind
of you know you can to me again i'll just repeat it because i'm gonna sound like a broker record
but to me if you're one of these people is like everything's run too much i can't i can't buy the
stuff that's run too much move down to
the stuff that hasn't run try to find another angle because like trying to again piss in the
wind where you're trying to call tops and stuff it's not where you want to do it it's like a lot
of these names are like beach balls that you push underwater they push them down they push them down
they push them down and then something happens and then boom next thing you know they're up pretty
aggressively so in when they're moving from one name to the other, I don't think that's coincidental, number one. And number two,
when they're doing that, that's not where things just fall off a cliff, right? So when they're
going from Apple to Google to Amazon to Meta, and they're just kind of like cycling through the
names, it's not really, while other things under the surface are broadening out as well,
it's not really what you want to call a top.
So if you are uncomfortable with one thing, try to move down chain, find another thing.
Talked about CrowdStrike yesterday.
I was targeting that 430 level.
Got it today.
I'm pretty much all out.
I actually took a shot yesterday on Duolingo,
and that one was actually working just before that headline.
I got stopped out on the name. It made an okay profit, but nothing like what it could have been if not for some of these headlines that can kind of attack the core business in general without management
coming out and possibly trying to do some sort of licensing deal or something like that,
then it might not be over for that. Outside of that, you got rubric earnings today and you've got
Oracle today. Last quarter, Oracle guided up and then people chased it.
Want to see if that stays true
or if a lot of things are baked in.
On the rubric front,
stock broke out ahead of earnings.
It broke out of this wedge,
this downtrend that had been forming
since the beginning of June. And we're like
basically a whisper from an all-time high. I think we're like five bucks or four bucks from
all-time high. So, you know, it's a good report. That's another name that they could go chase.
So just want to pay attention there. The setup kind of reminds me of the A-Lab setup.
And if you just pull up that chart, you can see how aggressive that one's moved um you know beyond that i'm just i'm still paying
attention to some of these darlings like that that i that i own so like tempest for example
is in a downtrend again i use a beach ball analogy um it keeps pressing up against that you know that downtrend level uh which is
basically like 82 83 bucks and i kind of feel like if it breaks if it breaks through there
you know it'll be at an all-time high really quickly so you know it's not anything i'd want to
you know take my eyes off of you guys were talking about asts earlier i mentioned it yesterday um
you guys were talking about asts earlier i mentioned it yesterday um you know the the sale
the sale to starling kind of really hampers some of their some of their plans um and so you know
the stock is not this is not anything that was in terms of price action it's not anything new
the stock's been in the downtrend since their earnings and before, but it basically confirmed it on their earnings.
And I kind of think with making new lows today
and breaking the 100-day yesterday,
if it can't reclaim this 100-day in the next day or two, the next area
of support to kind of look for is that $32 level. I still own the name,
but again, I bought it
materially lower and talked about it here when I when I sold a majority position, you know,
north of 50. You know, anytime I feel like anytime you get this 100% move in some of these names in
a very short period of time outside of things that you think are like, you know, cornerstone, you know, industry changing type things that
are actually like not pre-revenue.
In my opinion, it's ideal to just kind of like cut your cost or book some profit or
sell some covered costs or whatever you got to do to kind of earn some income and not
be caught up in the downside.
But I'd look for that 32 level, 32, 33 level,
somewhere around there on, on that one,
which is like, it's still 10% lower from here at least.
So it's not anything I'd want to kind of get in front of. I think,
I think Hamid kind of touched on the important part.
They were expecting two launches per month and that kind of got stalled a little bit um and so yeah outside of that there's a there's a couple of other like
you know beaten up names that they've that they've kind of gone to uh smci is one that they went to
today on the back of holding that 200 day so any kind of fall through there i think the thing that thing can
uh really rip back to call it 48 bucks but you know you're basically trading against that 200
or excuse me that 200 day level um and then you know just just looking for momentum
in different pockets again they're just to me they're just rotating from momentum to momentum uh take a look at like the miners today for example um the bitcoin mining names uh really
outperform coinbase is outperforming you know palantir got bid so i just i don't want to kind
of i don't want to get cute and try to like you know call a top or or do any of that stuff i'd
rather just kind of flatten out positions and kind of play it safe
if I want to. But beyond that, I just look for the next kind of skate where the puck's going to go,
look for the next thing. The last note I'll leave on is I thought it was interesting. The CoreWeave
headline today was pretty interesting. And I kind of want to pay attention to it. So for those that know, don't know, it launched AI focused investment vehicle.
So they've got a venture and they're looking to back founders shaping companies
in AI. So that's kind of like the headline.
But I think that in part, CoreWe've kind of moved in tandem with that Nebius
headline. So I want to pay attention next couple of days.
It's gotten to this like 103, 105 level
a couple of times in the last few weeks
and hasn't been able to break through.
I feel like any kind of material breakthrough
of that level really sets the door for,
call it 110 on conservative side,
117 for the upside.
So that's kind of like where I'll leave it.
And if you have any questions,
happy to go from there.
Oh, appreciate that, Wolfie. Godfather, saw your hand go up. Love to bring you in next.
Yeah, thanks, Em. But I got a hard stop at the top of the hour, so I was hoping to go next.
Look, from the top, looking at yields, there's not much to talk about there.
We backed off nicely from this 5% on the 30-year. We're back around 4% on the 10.
Twos are at the lowest level in three years. So that picture looks healthy for markets.
Technically, the Qs and SPY were well above the sort of moving averages that people care about, 9s, 21s, 50s.
So everything there looks copacetic.
Of course, we've got a market that's kind of been waiting here.
As options Mike touched on, PPI tomorrow, CPI, which is, of course, the Fed's core inflation gauge on Thursday.
And I think that both numbers, core inflation gauge on Thursday. And, you know, I think that
both numbers, frankly, will be hot. The last PPI was hot. I mean, even Waller, who's,
you know, the most dovish of the Fed governors has, you know, come out and said that, you know,
we do expect an uptick in inflation here, although he's firmly in the transitory camp around tariffs.
But that number could be hot. And look, we're seeing it in these interest rate sensitive names.
Certainly they moved a lot. There's a lot of rate easing that's been priced in too much,
in my opinion. We're seeing a rest in the TLTs and the nails of the world, the housing
related names,
the big interest sensitive names are resting today.
I think in anticipation of what may come and I wouldn't be surprised to see some more consolidation of the recent gains
because I do think that, you know, 45% rate cut chance for October and then 67% for December following on,
you know, what is 100% for September is fully baked, in my
opinion. Look, I think this BLS revision is being treated by the market for what it is, which is
noise, you know, 900,000 plus. Big deal. Last year, it was 800,000 plus. At this time of year,
they revise year-to-date numbers. It's just what they do. There's a lot of noise around the BLS, of course. So I wouldn't spend much time
ruminating about that, quite frankly. On ASTS, and just to weigh in a little bit here,
I think that the comments that were made regarding sentiment competitive-wise around SpaceX with this bandwidth buy are well-placed.
And I think that the comments that were made around the technicals are also well-informed.
I will say, though, that I'm in the believer camp when it comes to the technology.
I'm with the 45 or so of the world's largest mobile network operators that represent some 3 billion in subs that
have signed on with ASDS. And a lot of these guys have entered into revenue sharing agreements
that include prepayments for a lot of those catbacks. So from a technology standpoint,
yeah, I'm a believer. Timelines, of course, market sentiment, of course, all these things factor in where the stock is trading.
But longer term, I think it will be a two horse race and these guys will get their share of what will be a highly lucrative business for them once this upfront cap is spent.
So I'm a long term investor there and remain so through all of this noise.
there and remain so through all of this noise.
Clearly the Nebbia Steel lighting a fire under all of these Bitcoin miners that are focused
on HPC conversion.
We finally saw some breakout moves in a number of these names with Cypher through 9, Iron
through 30, Wolf through 10, et cetera, et cetera.
I think the lesson in this market, despite the fact that, you know, we're in
a blackout period for Fed speakers and it's kind of dull from a timing standpoint without
earnings, is that you don't really need to stray too far from the key themes.
you know, there are certain days in which they don't work and there are certain days when they're back on again.
You know, there are certain days in which they don't work and there are certain days
when they're back on again.
And, you know, certainly this data center theme is a key theme as witnessed by this massive deal between Microsoft and Nebius.
And, you know, the other names that are working again today are nuclear, again, for the reasons that we all know related to power consumption demand for AI.
So I too have been pounding the table on the likes of LEU.
It's a core name for me.
And we bought this weakness from the convert deal,
hand over fist, and it's nice to see this thing
clearly breaking through 200 all day strength.
And yeah, we'll see if we can capture that sort of 265 peak
levels that we saw before. Rare Earths as well. We saw some nice news out of Quadruple U, U, U, U, U,
just talking about their rare earths being processed by their JV partner in South Korea.
And it's passed all of the mustard that was expected in terms of producing magnets that
will ultimately go into EVs and other industrial uses. So, you know, that's a theme that's not
going anywhere. And, you know, I agree with the comments that were made about, you know,
beach balls underwater when it comes to a lot of these core themes, because, you know, there are
going to be a continuous, there is going to be a continuous cycle of good news because there is a
tailwind, a legitimate tailwind behind these names.
One of the names, you know, one of the group or theme groups that, you know, I'm not as bullish long term on, I guess, are these DATs, these digital asset treasury companies.
The business models are tough and, course they work. When you're
trading at a premium to NAV and you can continue to add digital assets on a basis that are accretive
to your per share of digital assets. It's interesting that in addition to big
It's interesting that in addition to big ATMs these guys have in place, they've also got buybacks in place.
First of all, there's been a proliferation of these things, so I think there's a bit of a market fatigue on them.
But a lot of them are trading now under their naps.
are trading now under their naps.
And so now they're having to use that money
that would otherwise go to buy digital assets
to buy back their stock,
to try to get themselves back in that position again.
So it's a tough model to maintain.
Goldman's been holding their big TMT,
Telecom Communications Tech Conference.
A couple of interesting sort of takeaways from that.
We did have comments out of MasterCard yesterday, just talking about consumer being strong.
They were echoed by a presentation by Visa today.
Also Uber, some positive takeaways for the consumer there.
You know, no trade downs in terms of types of rides, no trade downs in terms of trends
types of rides, no trade downs in terms of trends in restaurant ordering. So all of that,
in restaurant ordering.
some good anecdotal evidence to continue to strengthen the consumer. One thing that I'm
spending a little bit more time on is this, I guess there are two themes that have come out of
AI, second derivative themes, if you will. One is the agentic commerce theme, and that's starting to, you know, come a little bit more mainstream. And the other
is physical AI theme. And, you know, you're seeing this, companies that are providing
both hardware and software solutions for this sort of low latency inference at the edge,
inference at the edge, names like OUST on the sensor side, names like BZAI on the chip side,
processing side, LightPath, we saw news there for their cameras.
Little companies like EmTech, Marist Technologies, super interesting. I mean, these guys are providing the algorithms.
They're providing the embedded AI accelerators that go into a lot of this technology.
And this is technology that filters all the way up to prime defense contractors incorporated in all sorts of UAVs and all the rest of it.
So you'll be hearing more from me about that. I've got key holdings in all of those names that
are mentioned, OUST, BZAI, LPTH, MTEK, MTEK. Again, this sort of goes with this core theme of
massive tailwind of demand behind it and then finding the guys that actually have the technology that are being incorporated and adopted into these end uses.
So, again, don't stray too far from the key themes, I think, is really the message of today.
the message of today.
I'll leave you there. Thanks for having me.
I'll leave it there.
Thanks for having me.
Appreciate that rundown from The Godfather.
Really great stuff.
Got to hear some of it yesterday
on our small cap show as well.
If you guys aren't checking that out,
you definitely should.
Market did close there officially 0.24% on SPY
and 0.28% on QQQ.
Closed up there at the highs.
And we're waiting on Oracle earnings here in just a few moments.
GameStop came out.
I don't care, but they did beat their number somehow or another.
Synopsys also going to report here in just a few moments.
report here in just a few moments. I haven't seen that one out just yet. And let's see what Oracle
Haven't seen that one out just yet.
does here in just, or expected here in about 10 seconds. So I'm going to hold the conversation
here for just a second in case these Oracle numbers come out, and then we'll continue around,
get Logical involved here, Stock Geek hanging out with us.
And we'll hear the victory lap that I've been anticipating for about 24 hours.
Oracle reports $1.47.
Ooh, Oracle moving down.
Apparently they missed.
$1.47 versus $1.48 is what I'm seeing here.
Oh, what a huge miss.
They missed their revenue, too?
Rubric's up aggressively.
See, I see double miss here I bounce back hard but I see double miss
now it's green
now you're up 30%
guidance maybe I don't know I don't see the numbers yet
yeah I'm trying to find the it's on the website um
the oracle it was 1.47 misses 1.48 the cells 14.92 misses 15.03 a slight double miss but their
guidance must be strong now it it's up 4.5%.
Looking for that guidance.
The growth is pretty nice across the whole business.
We signed four multi-billion dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1.
We expect the pace to continue.
Our backlog increased by 360% to $455 billion.
That might be the commentary that's driving some bids.
Wow, we click Oracle Cloud to grow 77% this year.
Holy shit.
Wow, there you go.
That'll do it.
7.6% off right there
on Oracle. Dude, at Oracle's
scale, 77% growth is fucking
riparted. That is crazy.
Pardon my language.
Wait, how big is their cloud business
already? It'll grow. I mean, it's like uh what is 7.2 billion
it'll grow to like an 18 or 19 billion dollar business with that with 77 growth
uh we expect in the consecutive years after this fiscal year for cloud infrastructure growth to grow from 18 billion to 32 billion to
73 billion to 114 billion and then to 144 billion over the subsequent four years holy shit
they're gonna introduce that 144 billion est cloud infrastructure revenue in four years from now that's 2030 ESD stocks about 11%
it's like mind-boggling why work also reported they beat rubik was expected to
have a 34 cent loss they had a 3 cent loss and revenue 300 beats 282 rubric.
If you're a growth investor and you do not have cloud infrastructure exposure right now,
you're out of your mind, in my opinion.
You're out of your mind, even after what these stocks have done.
Look at these numbers.
This is Oracle we're talking about.
This is not a SMID cap.
They expect cloud infrastructure growth from 18 to 32 to 73 to 114 to 144.
And this is including their conservative guidance measures.
They expect multi-cloud revenue to grow substantially every quarter for the next several years.
We expect to deliver 37 data centers to our three largest customers, making a total of 71 of the largest data centers in the country over this four-year period.
Next month at Oracle AI World will introduce... This is insanely wild, dude.
Revolutionary Club.
We expect little to no cyclicality in this business with revenue growth in every subsequent
quarter that is insane dude that is insane i mean i don't know if that's actually going to
come to fruition like obviously they could be like i don't know jumping the gun here but that
is insane that's probably it's probably government cloud right i mean even with government cloud
let's make an assumption that like what like let's say you clump the government cloud business with like an eight percent tagger
over four years the it doesn't even account for a fraction of these numbers this has to be
hyperscalers so these numbers don't make sense otherwise they they there are unspoken about
commitments here implied in the guidance there's no other way around this there there are unspoken about commitments here implied in the guidance
there's no other way around this there there are unspoken commitments or unprd commitments from
google or amazon or somebody that is driving these numbers you can't get to 144 billion
in cloud infrastructure in one year like i mean they're not even doing end-to-end cloud
infrastructure like they're just at one part of the channel.
I don't know.
This is wild.
This is the second quarter they've done this, though.
No, no, but these numbers are much crazier than last quarter.
The guidance, the four-year guidance here is much crazier than last quarter.
Like, a magnitude crazier.
So I don't know what happened.
I'm trying to read this quote, these quotes from the CFO.
That's where all those tidbits came from. But like, there's something here that they're not saying directly.
What is this a new cloud infrastructure service called Oracle AI database that they're going to reveal next month at their AI world?
month of their AI world.
Yeah,
I saw that too. That's not it.
There's something here that's implied that is not
being said directly.
150,000%.
While you
source of that, can I
touch on something I forgot to say earlier?
These guys are building Stargate, by the way.
They've got $30 billion a year of
commitments just from OpenAI.
Yeah, the OpenAI commitments are
definitely part of it, but it still doesn't... There's still something else here. Anyway, go for it. Sorry, Wolfie. billion a year of commitments just from open ai yeah yeah the opening i commitments are definitely
part of it but it still doesn't the numbers there's still something else here anyway go for it
sorry wolfie no you're good um so this kind of like ties in because you just said they have an
ai event or whatever right could we just uh stop doing apple events like we don't have to have an
annual apple event every year i'm not even like, like, trying to be funny. I'm being genuine.
Like, the Apple events used to be, hey, we have this hot new thing or we have an advancement that we want to show you.
It's kind of, like, it runs counter to the point for the stock or for the company to have an event that, you know, people run up into it.
And then it's going to fall short, especially today. Today
was like the shortest event in years. They didn't really introduce anything outside of those three
phones. And for Amp, you know, I don't think it's a coincidence that the three colors they chose
were Gator colors. I'm just going to throw that out there. But, you know, I just, I don't think,
I don't see the point. Like, what's the point of you telling me that you've got a new SKU?
That could all just be like, put on your website and put it in a bunch of slides.
Do whatever you got to do.
But to make it into an event, I think kind of runs counter.
So I think if they're going to separate, like Hamid and, I forget who it was.
I think it was Mike were saying they're going to separate the AI events from the regular events.
Just do an AI event, dude.
Just do an innovation event or whatever event you want to call it,
and every year introduce something new or introduce something that's perceived groundbreaking.
Or if you've got a real advancement, have an event.
But I don't think that what they're putting out on a year-in and year-out basis
deserves to have an hour worth of people's time to see what it is that they put out.
Yeah. I mean, that makes perfect sense, right?
I could have watched a 32nd commercial during Monday night football last
night and got the new colors, you know, like they also have lavender too.
So I don't know if that's one of your Florida Gator colors, but.
No, so that's, that's a midnight blue. I checked the site before I,
before I, that's a midnight blue. I checked the site before I... That's a blue.
Cosmic orange, like,
did any of those help you
against in-state rivals?
Boom, crickets got them on that one.
All right.
Oh, I didn't hear what you said,
but I'm just gonna fuck it.
I'm just gonna buy some more chain link
and call it a day.
There you go.
There you go.
Maybe buy some USF.
I heard that's a good ticker.
Logical, I don't think we've heard from you on this space yet.
I want to get over to you and StockGeek, I know you chimed in there.
Definitely appreciate you guys holding on.
I want to get to you guys both and then we'll get over to StockTalk.
So Logical, if you want to jump in and anything that you've heard so far,
anything you want to share with us today, we'd love to hear it.
Yeah, I mean, obviously,
NetBS being the biggest news today.
And then Oracle, wow, up 14% now.
Clearly, the cloud stuff is still working.
I think StockTalk said, like,
you still have to have exposure here.
And I generally agree.
There's a name that him and I both like right now,
which is Amcor.
So I took a position on that today.
Yeah, I mean, I am still heavily skewed towards the bios and housing.
Those have become my two bigger trades,
but I have a reasonably diversified portfolio at this point
with good exposure to a bunch of different themes.
Yeah, XBI today was down 1% at one point,
and it closed the day up 56 bps,
basically leading all the other major indices,
which is really nice to see.
So just a lot of strength in the bios.
Nectar is one that I keep talking about,
up another 9.6% today.
If you just look up that chart,
every single day it's up 10% or more.
It was up like 22 percent then 11
percent then 10 percent then 9.5 percent i mean just a monster run um yeah up seven 67 percent
of the last week 107 percent of the last month uh i had shares in both my iras uh mine and my
wife's and then uh i had shares also my taxable account. It was about split 50-50,
and I decided to take profits on the tax-free shares
and still holding on to my taxable account shares.
So yeah, still have about a 7-8% position there,
but it was getting really big around 15% after this huge run-up.
Nectar still looks really, really good.
Again, I still think it's pretty undervalued but
yeah after a hundred percent run up in a month i have to you know have to hit the register so
pretty pretty solid run there um i was able to use the excess cash that i had now to basically
bring down my margin uh so now i'm sitting at 100% long, 19 positions.
So yeah, a very manageable portfolio right now.
I feel really good.
I'm at around 110% year-to-date performance.
Yeah, just managing really, really well here and doing my best to not book any more gains for the year
because it's been a pretty big year.
Just trying to hold on and figure ways out to manage
that but other than that you know obviously yeah there's there's strong themes it looks like we're
going to keep running it hot i don't really care what the inflation report says we were past
inflation in my view um yeah will we have volatility sure i don't care um you know the
rate story we're getting more rate cuts is what we're pricing in now in
the fed cme tool again i've been on this panel several times this year and last year both calling
for three cuts last year i called for three cuts we got four this year i've called for three cuts
now we're starting to price in four potentially not like a big percentage but there's a there's
a reasonable chance of that as well again um do i, do I need rate cuts to do well? No.
Um, but clearly, you know, if we're running this thing hot, which it feels like it, you gotta be,
you know, having exposure to assets. Uh, I saw a good post recently that just said, you know,
SMP is up 0.3% year to date or something, or it's like, well, it's up 1% now, I think after
today's action, but basically SMP is up 1% year to date. If you like net out how the dollar has been falling in value, if you look at the Dixie,
I think it's just important to understand that, you know, while it doesn't exactly play
out that simplistically, the idea is that your dollars are worth less every single day
that passes.
And so investing is really the only way to see the other side of life without basically having
your dollars be worth nothing.
So just to add a little perspective there, in the 70s, again, I think I was talking about
this earlier in the week, but in the 70s, we had rampant inflation and stocks did well
in that decade.
I think inflation still outpaced equity returns at the index level. But imagine if you held cash, you got absolutely smoked.
So I'm not saying cash is trash, because that's like some, you know, peak hop market talk. And
I'm not trying to do that. But, you know, you have to invest, especially when we're just like,
you know, government is doing all this fiscal stimulus, you don't see recessions when government
is printing that much money and, you know, putting it into the economy. You know, government is doing all this fiscal stimulus. You don't see recessions when government is printing that much money
and, you know, putting it into the economy.
You know, rates are coming down.
That's going to improve liquidity further.
So, yeah, you know, your dollars are worth less every single year.
That's not some revelation.
It's just the truth of the matter.
So you do need to be fully invested, I think.
You can, you know, take that up and down based on
the opportunities you see or the lack thereof. But ultimately, you need to have asset exposure.
So I think the real problem will be and I don't want to make it like anything bigger than or
outside of stock investing. But in reality, like when you look around the world, it's going to be
shaped by whether you decided to make decisions in your life to you know buy assets and
keep up with inflation and be able to outpace it or you know are you going to get swallowed whole
and then you know 10 years down the line think oh man everything is so unfair and because that that
will happen to most people and i think it's unfortunate um and especially for people who
have maybe lower income and don't have the excess savings to invest.
But if you do, then it's something that you really owe
to your future self to be on top of.
So yeah, it's been a great year.
I think it'll continue to be a strong rest of the year.
Probably going to be a reasonably good 2026, I can imagine.
And as long as these AI tailwinds hold up hold up CapEx spend holds up I don't see any
weakness really in the market uh we're seeing you know bonkers numbers as you guys mentioned
Oracle just now I think other sectors will continue to be AI beneficiaries the second
order beneficiaries basically getting more efficiencies seeing higher revenue growth etc
um yeah I think it's an exciting time to be alive, exciting time to be investing.
But you really do need to own assets through this time.
That's all.
Oracle, by the way, is now up almost 25 or almost 22%, sorry, but that's insane.
I just read through the numbers when I disconnected there.
My phone died, but like mind-boggling numbers, like ridiculous.
Like ridiculous numbers across the board.
I don't even know what's going on.
But like, and the CEO mentioned this versus the last quarter too.
He said in these comments, he said,
this was an astonishing quarter even in light of our previous quarter.
Those are the words he used.
It was an astonishing quarter.
He said, demand for Oracle cloud infrastructure continues to build even beyond our wildest expectations. Over the next few months, we expect to sign up several additional
multi-billion dollar customers who we expect to be repeat customers. Our RPpo backlog is expected to exceed half a trillion dollars
like what are we talking about dude like these numbers are these are video game numbers
these are actual video game numbers coming from out from a company and like you can't ignore this
kind of stuff and this tells you why the smid caps in this space are go have gone up two to three hundred percent in
the last three months and will go up another two to three hundred percent in the coming years
telling you this right now and and and they will defy people's logic because people will look at
the valuations you know and i'm going to get into some stocks here and chat about some of the names
obviously from today and nebius included but you, you know, starting with Nebius, you know, Nebius isn't a company that posts a lot of revenue
per quarter. Okay. If you look at their like, or even if you go like earnings hub, you go to any
of these things, you'll be like, what? It doesn't make any sense. Right. And so as a product of that,
a lot of people would look at this as a valuation play and would have never bought it. Right. They do like one hundred million dollars of revenue a quarter. You'd be like the valuation doesn't make sense, even when it was eight billion. Right. When we bought it in May.
because of the revenue they were making. It was valued at eight or nine billion then because of
the subsidiaries that they own. And when you do research and know the industry, like I know very
well, I know the industry like the back of my hand now, right? I've been trading these stocks in and
out in every sector of the industry for over six years now, right? Even before ChatGPT was a thing.
And so am I an expert in AI? No. But do I know pretty much everything that I need to know to trade all of the AI stocks?
Yes.
And this thing was screaming by in May.
It was screaming by in June.
It was screaming by in July.
And that's why on these spaces for three months, some of you in the space would tag me and say,
StockDoc, you're talking about Nebius again today.
Or you're talking about Centris Energy again today.
Why?
You sound like a broken record. Well, now you guys see why. You guys see
why I pound the table on these same names. I'm not a high turnover guy. I don't buy stuff and
sell it back or buy new stuff or turn over 10 positions at a time. I don't do that. Anyone
who follows me knows this. I have core positions. I have a couple stuff I keep on the periphery. If it doesn't work,
it doesn't work. And the core positions, I just don't rotate out of them. Like I just hold them.
And those are the reasons why my performance is the way that it is this year. Has there been
volatility? Yeah. You know, I've had volatility. Portfolios don't go up in a straight line.
But the reason my portfolio is able to continually inch into these highs is because I stay with the stocks that I have conviction in.
And if you understood the Nebbia story, when I explained it here many times, right,
I talked to you guys about ClickHouse and data observability. I talked to you guys about AV
Ride. And I talked to you guys about the robots that were deployed in Dallas. I don't know how
many times I told that story. Right. And I know many of you about the robots that were deployed in Dallas. I don't know how many times I told that story, right?
And I know many of you in the audience bought the stock, right?
And if you did, in fact, for those of you that are listening,
if you're a regular listener, if you bought the stock
in any of the last three months when I was talking about it every week,
let me know in the comments, you know?
I'd love to know that.
I'd love to know if any of you benefited from that
because I know our community did.
But conviction pays, man.
Sitting through the volatility
sitting through when you think the theme is dead you know how many people in the last couple of
weeks were talking about data center stock saying the theme is dead the theme is dead look at them
they're fizzling below they're breaking below their 21 daily emas no one was looking at the
weekly and monthly charts i don't know why but people were like oh you know time to rotate into
new sectors turns out it was absolutely not time to rotate into new sectors.
Look at Oracle today.
Look at Nebius today.
Look at every data center play today.
The hottest theme of the year is hot again.
And I say this a lot, you know, when we talk about markets and we talk about like, you know, there's always every time the best stocks, and by the best stocks, I mean your AI stocks, your nuclear stocks, and and these market leading stocks, whenever they pull back or cool off, everyone's like, guys,
it's time for the underperformers to outperform guys. It's time to rotate.
When has that ever lasted more than three days in the last five years? Never lasts. Never. And I
say that all the time, like rotating out of the best themes to buy unwanted garbage is not a winning strategy,
in my opinion, unless you're an amazing stock picker. And there are some people that are great,
like logical, for example, is a great stock picker. He can navigate that because he knows
his stuff really well. But for the vast majority of you, that's a losing game. That's a losing game
to say, I'm going to rotate out of the most loved and wanted areas of the market to try to get
exposure to these shit areas. Like you're not going to super perform doing that. You're just not.
And it doesn't mean you can't have a balanced portfolio, but you need to know where the puck's
going. And where the puck has been going for the last three years is very clear. There are a handful
of market-leading themes that have direct policy support, and the stocks will keep going higher.
AI and data center is one of those areas.
Nuclear is another one of those areas. Aerospace and defense is another one of those areas.
These are places where you have to have sustainable exposure to capture the whole trend.
You don't trade these themes. If I traded Kratos, I bought Kratos in the 20s. Kratos in the 60s now,
if I traded it, I wouldn't have been able to capture that. I bought Nebius at 25. If I traded it, I wouldn't have been able to capture it.
It's 100 now.
I bought Robinhood 1974 cost base.
If I traded it, I would not have been able to capture that theme.
So on and so forth.
Centrist energy.
I can name name after name after name, where if I traded them, instead of understanding
the thematic opportunity and what was coming in the markets in terms of a repricing, then
I wouldn't have held those stocks.
But that's the difference between knowing what you own and kind of knowing what you own.
That slight separation is the difference between people that hold these stocks.
Look, anyone in the market can identify a market leader.
You can use a scanner and find all of them right away.
You don't need to be a genius to find the market leaders.
You see guys all over Twitter every day, they post setups, right? I mean, 90% of Twitter is setup traders, right? Like they think
that that's where the bread and butter of money is, but that's most of Twitter. Just guys, oh,
this is set. Look at this setup. Look at this setup. Cool setup. You know, high type flag,
wedge breakout, you know, whatever, like retest of the 200d moving average. People are looking
for setups. And I'm not knocking setups. I look at setups too, when I'm looking for entries, you know, it's good.
It's a good thing to look at if you want to get an ideal entry by knocking that, that sort of
analysis. What I am saying is that you're not going to find market leading stocks that way.
You're not going to stay in them that way. Right? Because the guy who sees a market leading stock
through the lens of a chart just sees a market-leading stock.
He doesn't know the story.
He doesn't know why it's going to be a good long five-year hold.
When that stock doubles, he's going to sell it, or he's going to sell most of it, or he's going to scale out of it a long way of that double, and not realizing that the idea is finally being discovered, the opportunity is finally being discovered,
discovered, the stock is starting to get found, it's starting to get institutional interest.
the stock is starting to get found, it's starting to get institutional interest.
Very often, for some of the best market-leading smid caps, that first 100% is exactly not when
you want to sell. That's when it has become a stock that can feel institutional interest,
that can feed that volume, that can sustain it, that can become a more mature business over time.
So it's sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy to an extent when price starts performing for these names, it becomes a tailwind for their
performance in the industry as well. It allows them to raise capital more easily. It allows them
to be more competitive versus their peers. It allows them to be more attractive to institutional
investors as their market cap grows and as liquidity grows. So all of these things become a viciously self-feeding cycle. And
the thing I've found with most smid cap stock pickers, and that's how I would define myself
because most of the stocks I buy are in that smid cap category, although many have grown, right?
Robinhood, when I bought it, was close to a smid cap. It's obviously a large cap now. Nebius
was a smid cap. It's obviously a $23 billion company as of today.
But all these names, there are a couple others that I own right now that are smid caps that I
think will be large caps in the next year or so. Kratos was a smid cap when I bought it. It's now
over a 10 billion market cap. Huntington Ingalls was a smid cap when I bought it. It's now over a
10 billion market cap. So that's my game. I try to find stocks at a two to five billion market cap, you know, so that's, that's my name. That's my game. I try to find stocks at
a two to five billion market capitalization in extremely hot thematics that I know really,
really well and understand really, really well. And I hold them until they become the companies
that I think they can be. And that's how I generate the returns I do consistently because
I look for those opportunities constantly. So it was amazing to see Nebius pay off today.
Congrats to any of you who listen to the show regularly that may have followed me on that.
But I was not a seller today, to many people's astonishment, on this 50% move higher.
It's a long-term position for me, and I'm sticking to that thesis.
Do I think the stock can retrace after going up 50%?
Absolutely. I'm not saying it's going to be green every day, but I'm not a seller
here. To me, this is a validation of the thesis that I've had about this company for a long time.
And it is not a small contract. It's a $17 billion contract over five years. I think more contracts
are in the pipe. What was their market cap when that was announced? Isn't that more than their entire, wasn't it like 14
billion or something? And that was bigger? Yeah, it was a bigger deal than the market cap when it
was announced. Yeah. And so, I mean, look, they'll have to raise money to meet these infrastructure
obligations. The deal will fund a portion of the infrastructure that's required, which is good.
They'll also be able to float off some poorer term debt that they have, which is nice. But keep in mind the backdrop,
this is a validation of their data center business. In the background, Nebius still has
A.V. Ride, which by my estimation is at least a $10 billion company. Waymo's trading at a $45
billion valuation of the private markets. ARIDE has robots deployed, delivering food.
I mean, I think you could conservatively give AVRIDE a $10 billion valuation.
Nebius owns the entire thing.
They own 100% of that subsidiary, right?
You look at ClickHouse, they're doing data observability for SpaceX and OpenAI,
the two biggest private companies in the world.
ClickHouse was the $6.5 billion valuation prior to OpenAI's $500 billion raise
and prior to Anthropik's last raise, ClickHouse is easily a $15 billion company now.
Nebius owns 30% of them.
So today for Nebius was just a validation of the data center business.
That's what people don't understand.
It's a $17 billion validation of just their data center business.
They have roughly, depending on your estimation,
15 to $20 billion in investment level assets outside of that business. That can either be divested or grow or whatever they choose to do with it. They have optionality with those investments.
So again, I've said this story many times before. I guess it's odd to be repeating today after the
stock's up 50%, but smart people understood this about Nebius.
And that's why smart people bought the stock early and held it and did not get shaken out and didn't sell it after it doubled from 24 to 50.
You know, because if you did your work on this name, you knew this was coming.
They were the prime candidate for a data center deal of this.
The only Smidcap on the market that could sustain a deal like this.
Like, there's a lot of others that could talk about. Iron, Wolf, Cypher. I think Cypher continues to
look great. The charts looks great still. I think Iron looks great too. And I think they'll probably
get deals, but they're not going to sign a $17 billion deal. They don't have the strategic
expertise or the capacity to attempt to do that. Nebius did have that capacity and now they're
being validated for doing so. Keep in mind, Microsoft is a $4
trillion company. Microsoft has no need to contract out data center build outs. They have all the
money in the world. They would only do this if they felt there was expertise that they were
bringing into play. Why else would you give somebody $17 billion over five years to build
data centers for you? You could do it yourself. Microsoft has built data centers themselves.
But as a consequence of this, to me,
that makes this a major validation for them.
You don't throw around $17 billion contracts.
At least Microsoft doesn't.
So, yeah, just a massive, massive deal for Nebius
and really feels really good to have been right about that one.
But there was also another thing you're out.
Real quick, just on this.
What are your thoughts on galaxy i think galaxy is is a great candidate to get a deal um hey so they've
already got a deal by the way they've already announced the deal with core weave they have a
couple they got a big deal with core weave already to cover their first i think gigawatt of capacity
yeah yeah they have a couple deals i mean all these guys have some sort of either deal or mou
or understanding galaxy has if if any other company in that sub 20 billion dollar range has
the capacity to do what nebius is doing with microsoft i think it's probably galaxy and i think you know in close second and third probably iron and cipher
um wolf i think also has an opportunity the size of the deals is really what's going to dictate
the moves on these things but i do think many more many more hbc deals are coming many more
i took some calls today on clean spark it's it's been a laggard and they just fired their ceo
last month and they uh they're they're signaling a shift towards uh shifting capacity towards hpc
but they have no announcements yet so that's kind of my spec play if anyone wanted to hear it yeah
i have there's a lot i mean nebius cypher iron hud 8 mining riot platforms wolf galaxy applied digital core weave clean spark mara core scientific
um god there's like i don't know i'm just going off the top of the dome but there's got to be
like 15 names in this yeah well but all and all the miners were up uh or almost all the miners
were up at least uh 10 10 to 20% today except for like one or two.
But like Coors, you know, Coors is getting bought out by CoreWeave already.
You've already had Galaxy sign a deal with CoreWeave.
So some of these, like Iron has already done a bunch of PRs. Some of them have kind of already, may have already sort of like hit that press release,
you know, in this style, you know, press release of the deal kind of catalyst already.
So I've
been trying to figure out which ones haven't and which ones are sort of like moving in that
direction. So yeah, I was I was so I use own cipher. I use an iron to I sold them both for
really nice profits, but obviously not at the top. But what I will say about this is I thought about
this too. And I sat down with most of these stocks. And like, this is after I bought Nebius
because I knew I wanted Nebius over the group.
They were my favorite from the beginning.
But when I was looking at the other ones after buying Nebius, this was like in June and July.
What I was realizing was that, yes, there's going to be an enormous race to try to figure out which of these HPCO deals is signed next.
to try to figure out which of these HPCO deals is signed next.
But the risk is going to get higher on an individual stock basis as this theme progresses.
Because keep in mind today, all of these names are up 20%.
Not all of them are going to sign HPC deals.
And let's say that this data center theme, this HPC rush lasts another couple of months, which I think there's
a really good shot that it lasts as a theme for even much longer than that. But if it lasts,
then what happens is this intra-quarter, right, in between the earnings releases,
these things are going to float to the upside, you know, in some cases by hundreds of percent.
And when they don't sign HPC deals, there's going to be enormous downside for some of those stocks. So I do think, A, more HPC deals are coming, but I think they're going to go to a
very limited number of capable HPC providers. I think there's probably a list of five that I'd
put in that. For me, I'd probably say outside of Nebius, Iron, Wolf, Cipher, and Galaxy,
maybe you can throw Riot into that list.
The reason I'd be hesitant to throw Riot in that list
is on their last earnings call,
their CEO made a dumbass comment about,
they asked him about HPC and he was like,
we're a Bitcoin mining company.
Like we're not gonna consider HPC
and the stock like tanked like 20% on that or something
when Riot reported their last earnings.
So that was stupid from him. But if they change their tune on that, then I think I would add Rye to that list as well.
But it's really, it's tough because to have, to convince like Microsoft to give you like 15 or
$20 billion to build these things, you have to make a hell of a case. And that's why I think
what Nebius did
today was so impressive and such a validation of not only their technology, but the management team,
because they convinced Satya to say, like, let us do this for you, you know, and to convince a
company like Microsoft of that is an insanely tall task. And so I fear that although many of these BTC miners are well positioned to offer HBC services, I fear that many of their management teams are not remotely capable of pulling that off.
And so I think from this juncture, if you're somebody who is still looking for a pick, I'm kind of stress freefree in that area because I'm just holding Nebby as stress-free. But if you are somebody who is looking to get into this data center theme,
you don't have exposure, what I would say is to study the management teams intimately
and try to look for alpha or differentiations there. Try to look for connections in the
management teams to people at Microsoft and at Google and at Amazon. And if you can find
connections like that, I think those are your better opportunities or your higher probability opportunities. But it's going to be tough to guess the next one, I think,
because now everyone's eyes are on this HPC theme and everyone's going to be like, I want to find
the next $10 billion HPC deal. And it's going to be tougher now by design because of that. So
I think there's a lot of great opportunity there still. But yeah, risk is going to go up on these
names the further and further this theme
runs because a lot of them are running in anticipation of a deal that won't come.
And so that is an overhead risk, I think. But outside of Nebius from today, another one of
my positions, which is now actually as of today crossed 10% weighting in my portfolio.
I haven't made the decision yet, but I'll make the decision
by the end of the week on whether or not I want to end up designating this as a core position.
It didn't start as one, started as a trade, but now it's grown to over 10% weighting in the
portfolio. And the story has dramatically improved in my view also. So that's energy fuels. Now,
ticker U, U, U, U. So I started talking about this one when
it was six bucks and then missed my entry and it skyrocketed to like 10 bucks and I was pissed off
and I was like waiting and watching it like a hawk. And then on this pullback, it had to the
21 EMA back in late July. I bought it. I bought it in the low eights and, uh, or sorry, mid eights,
eight 68 average on shares. And then in the weeks preceding that it started to rip, rip back to the
tens and then had a big pull back, back into that eight zone and then pulled right back up on
extremely high volume to 13 revisited 13 again today so for people that
haven't been paying attention to the rare earth metals trade there's a lot of garbage in the rare
earth metals trade there's some good stuff there's actually quite a few names i like uh perpetual
resources i've talked about a bunch i think they have a very legitimate asset 2028 commercialization
so you might have to deal with the stock bouncing around until then but i think when ppta doesn't
get commercialization of their golden antimony mine i think that'll be a runaway stock in a few years but you know there's a lot of names
i like materion i've talked about beryllium you know i still own materion it's the only integrated
beryllium producer in the western hemisphere i think you know stock's still pretty undervalued
here in my opinion uh you know it's about 15 20 higher from where i bought it but i think it's
still undervalued so i still continue to own that there's there's several rare earth plays I like but the one I have liked the most and the one I certainly like the most today
is energy fuels and the reason why is is multifaceted first of all the initial
reason I bought the stock was their asset called the white mesa mill which
is the only conventional uranium mill in the United States and last year they
sort of hinted at this idea that they would begin processing rare
earths at the white mesa mill. And a lot of people were like, that's impossible. You know,
it's, it's not done at all in the US. It hasn't been done in the US for years. Like it's a dirty
business, yada, yada, yada. You know, it's a very low chance of probability. Even if you will do it,
you won't get to the refinement levels you need to do, so on and so forth.
At least that was the thinking from a lot of the professionals in the space November, September of last year.
So anyway, this year, obviously, rare earths get a new renewed focus from the Trump administration.
And everyone's focusing on them.
And all these rare earth metal stocks start exploding.
And the government takes a stake in MP.
And that stock goes up 70%. And in the meanwhile, Energy Fuels is like starting to regurgitate this conversation
about processing rare earths and they just went under the radar.
In fact, at the first leg of the rare earths trade earlier this year,
the Energy Fuels didn't even move.
Stock didn't move.
It was trading more with the nuclear trade than it was with the rare earths trade.
And then back in July, I posted the chart and said, move. It was trading more with the nuclear trade than it was with the rare earths trade.
And then back in July, I posted the chart and said, hey, it's poking its head above the 200 week and 50 month moving average simultaneously. That was the first post I put about it this year
was $6.50. Then stocks doubled now. But in a really beautiful technical look early July,
and they PR'd and said, hey, we're, you know, renewing our initiative to process rare earths.
And at that moment, I was like, dude, this is a dual theme exposure to two of the hottest themes in the market, rare earths and nuclear.
Right. Because they have the conventional uranium mill.
And then they also have rare earth processing, albeit in very small amounts going on there.
So anyway, a few weeks ago, this is when the stock recovered from those eight levels back to 13. They announced, and I tweeted about this as well, a very, very
nice validation PR that they had purified dysprosium at 99.8% purity. Now, again, in small
amounts, but that was significant. They were the only company in the United States to do that,
to produce any meaningful amount of heavy rare earth metals at all. The only company in the United States to do that, to produce any meaningful amount of heavy rare earth metals at all.
The only company in the country.
And so when they said that, stock went up a couple percent.
People were like, oh, nice PR.
I thought it was a great PR.
And then today they followed up that PR with an even better one.
Today they followed up that PR and said their partner in South Korea has validated their rare earth oxides for electric vehicle magnet
production. Now, keep in mind, in this trade spat between the United States and China,
rare earth, heavy rare earth metals in particular that are used for magnets, etc., were the main
point of contention. That's where China has the biggest chokehold over the United States. Right. And so that's the specific area that the United States wants to address from a resource standpoint first. Right. We want to develop an entire rare earth ecosystem. But first, we want to on heavy rare earths. And after this validation today,
their partner in South Korea is essentially saying, hey, the rare earths that you're producing,
again, albeit in small volume, are verified, cleared for use in electric vehicle motors.
The heavy rare earths that are used in electric vehicle motors. And those same types of heavy rare earth magnets are used in things like aerospace and defense.
Jet engines are used in other aerospace and defense applications like satellites,
rockets, precision guidance systems. You know, there's a pretty clear overlap here for me that they they have become the best candidate
in the country for heavy rare earth production like the single best candidate in the country
and it's a three billion market cap you know yeah the number like again the story here is the same
as it was with centrist and nebius if you look at the balance sheet you're not going to get what i'm
saying you're gonna look at the balance balance sheet and say well they don't
do enough revenue it doesn't make sense the p is too high like if that's the way you're going to
think about these themes you're not going to make it in these certain thematic trades because the
point is not the value of the business the point is the value of the asset the strategic value of
the asset if you put if you went to private auction today,
okay, let's say you had a room full of guys worth 50 billion bucks. Let's play a hypothetical out
here. And you told them, hey, I have this white mesa uranium mill, and it's the only mill in the
country, in the United States of America, the wealthiest country in the world, the only location
that has purified heavy rare earths. What is it worth? Do you think it would bid for over $3
billion? I think it would bid for way over $3 billion. That's the same way I feel about Centris.
That's the same way I felt about Nebius. Because when you look at the balance sheets of those
companies, when Centris was 90 or when Nebius was 20, no one in their right mind would buy
any of these stocks on the balance sheet because that's not the thesis.
The thesis is that they possess strategic assets that under the right policy conditions are worth more to the market than the native businesses that lie underneath those assets.
It's a very, very simple line of thinking.
And it's been the driving thesis behind most of my winning positions this year. In fact, you could even apply a similar sort of thesis to Kratos, which is trading far out of line of its fundamentals, but has strategically valuable defense technologies that the United States is prioritizing.
Right. The market will give will assign value to these types of things.
Right. The price of a stock is not purely
a function of how much money it earns. It's not purely a function of that. It's also a function
of things like rarity premium, thematic relevance, the amount of tailwinds there are for the stock,
whether those be policy tailwinds or industry tailwinds or both, like those things affect the pricing and the
value of a stock. Stocks that trade at premiums or large premiums generally have some combination
of all of those things at once that allow them to trade that way and hold and sustain those types
of valuation. So for me in the SMID cap universe, it's even less demanding, right? Like when I'm
looking at two or $3 billion companies that I think have enormous strategic importance to the country, to me, those numbers are just too
low. And that sort of thinking has helped me capture some of the best performing stocks in
the market this year. And I think will allow me to continue to capture those into the end of the
year. So Energy Fuels, I think, has in the the last two weeks of PRs, validated itself as the premier rare earth play in the country, in my opinion.
That's just my opinion.
But I think the price action and the volume on this thing over the past three months also agree with my opinion on that development. So Energy Fuel is a great day for Centris Energy,
which was my largest position and is now my second largest
because Nebius went up 50% today.
But Centris Energy, which is my second largest,
was up another 7% today.
And that's a beautiful recovery for Centris
because this thing looked a little ugly last week
coming below that 50-day,
is now recapturing the 50-day beautifully on this candle today.
Popping up above the local range.
You wanted to take out that 215 area you did today.
You pop right through 217.
This thing's probably headed right back to all-time highs.
Which I would love to see.
But lift.
I mean, man.
We've been talking about lift these last couple weeks.
And hopefully some of you have been paying attention.
Because from 13 to 1840 already. And I don't think the repricing is complete on this thing.
The relative strength for Lyft in the past two weeks has been phenomenal.
I mean, if anyone's paid attention to this name on a day-to-day basis, you look at the index volatility and you watch how Lyft acts, it's insane.
I mean, this thing has a relentless bid, and this is how quickly multiple expansion and repricings can happen.
You know, it was just a couple of weeks ago that I was on this space telling you guys,
hey, Lyft's too cheap.
It's trading at 1x sales, growing double digits.
That just cannot happen.
Within two weeks, the market realized that sent the stock from 13 to 18.
And it's likely going to keep going here as it pushes over this 18 spot.
You know, it's clearing its 200 week moving average
for the first time ever, not in five years, not in 10 years for the first time ever. It's clearing
its 200 week moving average. Really, really unlikely that we will get this forfeit this
week. I mean, unless the markets crash this week, the chances that this thing fails this 200 week
breakout are really low. It would have to come back for lift to fails this 200-week breakout are really low.
It would have to come back.
For Lyft to fail this 200-week breakout,
it would have to come back below 1650 this week.
I mean, could that happen?
I don't want to say never say never, but I don't think it's likely to happen.
So what is likely to happen is that a 200-week breakout
will be confirmed on Lyft this week for the first time ever.
And the relative
strength in the daily, I think, is superb these last few weeks. But if you really want to look
into it, look at the monthly. Monthly is pushing into the 50-month moving average for the first
time, again, ever. And, you know, this is, you know, the last stock I mentioned that was pushing
over its 200-week and 50-month simultaneously? Energy Fuels, UU, the last stock I mentioned that was pushing over its 200 week and 50 months simultaneously.
Energy fuels, the one I just discussed.
And guess what the price was when it was doing that back in July?
It was $6.
It's $13 now.
Coincidence?
Maybe.
But I think Lyft has the tailwinds it needs for this.
And I think the recent share structure changes for Lyft,
the founders retiring their class A shares, class B shares, all the efforts they're taking,
the anti-dilution efforts they're taking to secure the float, I think are excellent. So
yeah, I've remained in this name. In fact, I rolled out my, I had Lyft September and October
contracts, which were up a lot.
I know I don't roll a lot, but here's an example of a rule.
I did roll those out to January, but I kept the same strike.
I kept those deep in the money.
So they're the 15 calls for January that I own on Lyft.
And as of today, they're up 155%, maybe, with size too.
I have good size on those.
So yeah, that Lyft position is entirely in calls. It's not in, uh, not in equity. So loving what lift is doing, uh, for us lately. And I think
today's action was, uh, just absolutely gorgeous. Uh, if we can get the monthly close above 1855,
that's going to be really nice. And I mean, it has three weeks to pull that off,
right?
You have plenty of time.
It's September 9th.
This monthly candle can close above 1855.
Things going much higher.
I won't say 30 bucks,
but maybe 30 bucks.
What else outside of those?
Yeah,
that's pretty much it.
Those are the main actors for me today.
I guess I'll touch on Amcor a little more. Cause I got a bunch of questions yeah that's pretty much it those are the main actors for me today i guess i'll touch on amcor a little more because i got a bunch of questions about that today because
i posted about it again uh it's a new position for me uh that opened on friday uh i did some
more research last night i was reading uh taiwanese articles translating them to english
it was actually pretty annoying
because I kept copying pasting the commercial stuff by accident and then
putting it in chat GPT and the chat GPT was translating the Korean and
Taiwanese commercials and if you just get the new AirPods the website was like
all the websites were all janky Taiwanese media reports so anyway but I
was reading through all last night and I upsized my Amcor position in the
morning.
I went from three and a half to seven and a half percent waiting.
I'm sorry, four and a half to seven and a half percent waiting.
I really, really like the weekly chart.
But outside of that, I mean, I think the stock is just mispriced.
Tweeted that this morning, just one sentence.
But I think the stock is mispriced, like maybe even severely mispriced tweeted that this morning, just one sentence. But I think the stock is is mispriced, like maybe even severely mispriced.
I mean, you just shouldn't trade at one X sales with the type of catalyst they have on the horizon.
You know, you're getting a lot of talk now about this co-packing initiative between Taiwan Semi and NVIDIA, you know, to the tunes of tens of billions of dollars.
The OSATs are going to benefit hugely
from that, you know. Taiwan Semi likes to keep the OSATs in play, and the OSATs are the outsourced
assembly and testing for people that don't know. They like to keep the OSATs in play because
it feeds off this idea of them being a monopoly, right? And it gives them less regulatory and government
scrutiny. And on top of it all, it's a really easy way to do the made in America. I'll put
that in air quotes, the made in America thing, right? And that's really what my thesis is here
is that although packing companies, advanced packing companies, don't enjoy the same premium as a lot of their other semiconductor peers,
I think in particular Amcor with their facility in Arizona
with direct support from Apple and TSM deserves to trade higher
because it's in line to be basically the leading US OSAP play, period, end of story, right?
And when you have those kind of blue chip names behind you
i think it's pretty hard to make the argument otherwise and the good thing here is is trading
at 1x sales i don't think there's a tremendous amount of downside like i don't think the stock
is going to get sold hand over fist in a market downturn which which i like you know i want to
have names like that and um so yeah like amcor me, you know, the dots are all lining up, right?
You have best supplier award for Broadcom last year. Broadcom, let me look at the stock last
couple of days, but Broadcom is penetrating this AI customer war very, very aggressively, right?
You're talking about customers like XAI, OpenAI coming to the table. Even today, they're talking about ByteDance going to Broadcom for chips. So Broadcom's AI business ramping insanely fast. And, you know, their suppliers stand to benefit from that. But, you know, a lot of people will say, oh, well, you know, is betting on Amcor bet against TSM or against NVIDIA, you know, in favor of Broadcom?
No, no, that's the beauty of it is even though you are getting a benefit from the growth of Broadcom's AI business, TSM loves Amcor.
I mean, TSM is building the facility with them hand in hand.
Like it's being co-built, right?
And Apple not only invested in the facility directly, but told Amcor they'll be the first customer.
So you have big, big players like who have not only validated Amcor's role in the ecosystem, but have given them a lot of credit for being a leader in advanced packing.
And I think as chips become more advanced and these co-packing initiatives take place, there's a bigger and
bigger niche for Amcor to fit into. And on top of it all, the sort of cherry on top is that they
are domestic play on this, right? And when these commitments come downstream from Taiwan Semi or
NVIDIA and say, hey, we want to make $100 billion commitment to the US, an easy way to do that and
to say, hey, we're making stuff here is to say, oh, yeah, we're partnering with Amcor to do advanced packing
of the chips here. We can't make the whole chip here, but we'll do the advanced packing of the
chip here. And that's an interesting angle. So I think the stock should trade higher. I think it
should trade, frankly, 30 to 40, maybe even 50 percent higher than where it trades today and so um yeah i took a position
in that on friday and it hasn't moved much from where i took it so i know a lot of you in the
audience are like oh well stock i want to buy this stock that you bought but it's up too much
from when you mention it it's still good time to get in well amcor has barely moved from where i
bought it's moved like it's up like a percent from where i bought it so do what you will with
that information if it sounds interesting to you go read my tweets about it
go to your own research on it um but last thing i'll say on the amcorp thing is i asked chat gbt
last night i said if you could buy one smid cap stock to get exposure to advanced packing in the
united states with direct relevance to nvidia tai, Taiwan Semi, and Broadcom, what stock
would it be? And in 55 seconds, ChatGPT answered Amcor. And I gave it no prior information other
than that question. So, you know, maybe it's confirmation bias, maybe not, but I don't know.
I just kind of roll with my gut feelings once I do enough work on these. And I've researched this
company for a
couple of weeks now, and I feel like I had a good enough understanding to take a position. So I did
take one on Friday. And, you know, as always, as I always say, not, I know it seems like everything
I call out works out, not everything I call out works out. So, you know, if the stock breaks down,
then it breaks down and we'll get out. But for now, the structure looks fantastic. For those who are in it with me,
I'm paying attention strictly to the weekly structure on this one
because that's where the setup is.
So that's where I'll be looking for breakdowns if they do happen.
But, yeah, that's the story on Amcor.
That's pretty much different today.
I know I talked a lot today, but Nebius.
Is that AMCR?
Huh?
Which sticker is Amcor? AMKR. talked a lot today but nebius is that a CR huh what stickers am core am kr am kr okay guys are one of the audience members of asking yeah I have some tweets about it you can go read it about read them
if you want just pretty brief tweets just highlighting what they do and what their
relationships are but I don't believe that it's talked about enough i don't believe the stock is talked about enough
you search the twitter you search the thing on twitter you'll just find my posts in the last
couple of weeks and that's it so no one's talking about it and i like that um because usually when
i buy stocks no one's talking about it like when i bought nebbius in may no one was talking about
it and now everyone's talking about it. So I like doing that.
I bought Centris in May, no one was talking about it, and everyone's talking about it.
That's what you want.
You want to buy it when no one's talking about it, and then own it and enjoy it when everyone's talking about it.
And in some cases, sell it.
But for me, with my core positions, I'm not going to sell them just because people are finding them.
But, yeah, I just roll where the puck takes me.
And this industry feels ripe right now. Yeah, I just roll where the puck takes me.
And this industry feels ripe right now.
I think the lower rung guys in the supply chain, not your top level fabricators, not your top level designers.
Those guys already won.
And they'll continue to win.
But I think you go down the rung a little bit in the semiconductor supply chain. I think there should be some more attention there because I think those stocks will do well in the next eight months. I actually may buy a couple more. There's two other names I'm looking
at. I'll mention them to you guys on the space this week if I end up buying them. But there's
two other semiconductor names I'm also considering adding to that basket. That's good.
Wow.
What a day.
How does it feel to have your second largest position become your largest position?
It's always a good feeling, right?
Yeah, it is.
But now Nebius and Centris are in a race actually as of today nebius is going to
become like my largest waiting i've had in years i mean i didn't expect the stock to move 50 in one
day so you kind of factor that in but it's going to become almost 17 waiting for me after this
close wild wild uh centris is sitting at almost 14 so So those two are vying for the top spot.
Well, we are right at the top of the hour. We are going to roll the conversation over. We're
going to talk with our friends over at Prospero. We talk about AI all the time. We talk about
investing in AI. We talk about investing with AI. And we've kind of got a combo deal here that is very unique, very exciting. George, do we have you up here on stage?
Yeah, I'm here. Thanks for having me.
What is up, George? Let me get that title switched over here. George over at Prospero AI,
definitely an exciting opportunity, a very unique app and a tool that is helping retail traders beat the market.
A lot of things. I don't know how well we've introduced you guys to the crowd over here on Stocks on Spaces.
So, George, I wanted to just give you the moment to kind of give a brief introduction here of what Prospero AI is, where people can find it.
Prospero AI is, where people can find it, and then we'll dive in a little bit deeper from there.
And then we'll dive in a little bit deeper from there.
Yeah, so I've been in finance since I was, you know, 17. I taught myself accounting to work at
my first value fund. And, you know, the best way to describe what Prospero is, is it's kind of like
a collection of lessons over the years that have been, you know, codified into ways that can, you
know, help everyday people have better outcomes.
A lot of the origin of it was even when I was at smaller funds, I felt pretty disadvantaged
in terms of the data, the intelligence I was getting versus the bigger guys.
And so I got into AI about 15 years ago.
I figured out a more accurate way to model mortgages than anyone else at the time.
And that got me some good hedge fund contracts for R&D.
I kind of parlayed that into building a very advanced back end that could predict a lot of different things.
And as of six years ago, I kind of got back to what has long been a mission of mine ever since I got a little owned in the tech bubble when I started
investing when I was 13.
And just creating really reliable ways to visualize especially what's going on with
institutions in the options markets and visualizing that in close to real time.
We update that about every three minutes for some of our key metrics like net option sentiment, upside and downside, as well as, you know, we have 10 total signals that we think can really paint a pretty clear picture for someone.
So, you know, really where you're going to get a lot of lift is if you have a busy schedule, whether you're an investor or a trader, you could take a glance, get a quick health checkup on these stocks, your positions, you
know, indexes like the SPY or QQQ.
And it could really, you know, not only help you, you know, size positions, you know, find
new ideas, you know, whether it's our picks in the app or the newsletter that we write
that really, you know, teaches people how to manage portfolios around the signals.
And, you know, we've gotten really, really stellar results in that portfolio.
The last four years, we've averaged about 67% above the market and win rates between 58 and 60%
the last four years versus SPY benchmarks on individual picks. So we're really consistent.
You know, we're not just going for high volatility things. A lot of what we're doing on the long side
is large cap, mega caps. And yeah, we've had a lot of success.
You know, we're doing this crowdfund around the rollout of our flagship product alerts.
That's actually just going to be our best idea every day.
We're actually integrating a lot of new tech, a lot of LLM, you know, real-time information
into our, you know, our existing system that's a lot more focused on reliable linear equations that
we scaled up with some older sensor technology.
So we're really integrating a lot of the newest technology to get our best idea of the day
so it's a little easier to follow.
We're going to give you exits on those when we think the signaling has turned around.
But yeah, a lot of what we've heard the feedback from our current users is sometimes there's a lot of information,
sometimes too large of a portfolio for people to follow, especially in our trading letter versus our investing letter.
So this alert product is, we think, the easiest to use and highest value product we've created yet.
Yeah, a lot of great things happening over there with you and the team, George.
When I think about Prospero AI, I think about, okay, I'm a retail trader, you know, I'm going
up against institutions and stuff. And this seems like this is bridging that gap for us, right? For
the retail investor and retail trader, both involved there. Prospero AI,
for anybody that's curious, you can download it on your phone right from the App Store.
And tell me a little bit more, George. Obviously, I've used it. We have several people up here on
stage that have used it as well. But for the audience, what can they find in the Prospero app
if they download it on their phone today and they take a look into it? I know they're short-term,
long-term. And what are some of the little buckets that you guys are constantly
updating throughout the day? Yeah. So, I mean, just as a quick tour,
you know, we have these 10 signals. If you click on the signals, it'll give you more information
on, you know, what's behind it. What we like to say is they're like very simple at the top,
but, you know, behind it, they're very information rich. So, you know, when you're
looking at a zero to 100
scale, you can tell a lot about where a company sits and how that's updating.
And then we have our pick short term. That's going to be very net option sentiment and net
social sentiment driven. Long term is going to be much more upside, downside profitability.
And upside and downside are pretty cool
signals because, well, you know, net option sentiment is kind of just, you know, made
That's our most popular signal.
It's kind of like what you might think of as an intelligent skew.
So we're looking at, you know, isolating behavior of, you know, calls above where the stock
is trading versus puts below the extent that these institutions are, you know, betting
more via the price in that area.
But when you look at upside and downside,
that's going to separate out long-term call and put demand, but layer in things like analyst ratings, price targets, price momentum factors. So probably our most famous case study
for the upside is we had meta at 100 upside for almost two years back from when it was trading at
170. And what can be very useful about
like our signals versus something like an RSI in that department is, you know, when people ask me,
hey, it's like, you know, we've seen, you know, you know, 100% profits on meta, people are saying
it's overbought or RSI saying it's overbought, you know, it's so good. And we could be like,
yeah, well, analysts had to keep raising their price targets, you know, options bets in the
long term options markets had to keep staying live above where the stock
is trading, so reinitiated.
So yeah, when you look at something like our long-term signals, there's going to be a lot
more, I would say, spread out information in terms of the reliability of that.
So there's going to be very different views.
Net option sentiment, social sentiment, those short-term bull and bears, there's going to be very different views, you know, net option sentiment, social sentiment, those short term, you know, short term bull and bears, there's going to be more
volatility, but more upside. And, you know, on the longer term ones, there's going to be like a
really good view in terms of like a portfolio health checkup, things you can hold for like a
year or longer, you know, especially when you layer in, you know, our profitability and growth
metrics. You know, one thing that we found is it can be very confusing for, you know,
especially, you know, early investors to position, say, like an EPS against a lot of other companies.
So not only are we scaling that profitability against every other company,
we're also running, you know, some risk models, some economic simulations on top of that.
So you're not just getting an EPS, you're getting like an enriched EPS and you're also getting it scaled against, you know, a lot of other,
you know, forecasts. So that's kind of like the, the R picks. Then we also have a screener,
a daily screener. You get an alert for that if you have alerts turned on. And that's, you know,
kind of, you know, my view on the signal slicing them into a screener. It's going to be bull or
bear. So you can actually get, you know, our view on the market slicing them into a screener it's going to be bull or bear so you can
actually get you know our view on the market that day as well um when you're looking at that screener
um and then yeah the only other thing is you can you know once you get to know the signals a little
more um you can you know look at the top and and bottom of of you know the signals on you know you
know whether it be net option center or anything so you can get your own kind of long, short ideas. And yeah, the only other thing is, you know, we have a watch list. So,
you know, I think for new people that that might be the best place for you to start,
where you can just like, take a look at the stocks in your portfolio, the ones you're thinking of
adding, and you know, just like kind of scanning, looking at things like net option sentiment,
where it was last time you looked in the next time, you know, that can be very informative on, you know, upsizing your positions if it's going in the
right direction or, you know, maybe thinking about pulling back if it's going in the opposite
direction. I'd say especially that net option sentiment number.
Boom. There you have it. A great rundown. I did pin up top. There's a couple things up there. I
know Evan pinned something and I'll see if he has a moment to jump in on that.
If you scroll over, you'll also see actually right there, the first pin post, invest in
AI, invest with AI.
Why not both?
There's a link right in there that'll take you to all of the information that we're talking
about here with Prospero AI.
And when you go into this link, you're actually going to see tons of great information
about using AI to invest, what Prospero provides,
who's using it.
I mean, George, the one that stuck out to me,
163 countries that you guys have users in already.
I know it's in multiple languages.
And then the thing that sticks out the most,
and you mentioned this a few moments ago,
you've basically 13X the market over the last, what, three years, four years?
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, it's been, it's, I think, kind of a reward for trying to help people, as I like to say.
You know, when we were originally building this, we really were just trying to, you know, make sure retail was, like, not betting against institutions. And, you know, it turned out to be, you know,
that concept and the idea of like, you know, like visualizing this flow in an easy to consume way
has turned into, you know, quite the trading signal. So, yeah, we're excited about that.
I mean, when you're checking out the crowdfund, I'd also really encourage people to go and click
into the reviews. I think you can see, you know, the way, you know, whether it's
investors, traders, you see people reporting using it in different, you know, in different ways. And
you could really see, you know, not only how people are using it differently, but, you know,
all the people that, you know, who's really like, you know, changed their relationship with whether
it be investing or trading. So, so yeah, I mean, whether you're like thinking about investing or,
or using the app, you know, I'd really look at're like thinking about investing or, or using the app, you know,
I'd really look at that, you know, cause you know, we've had on other, you know,
spaces, you know, people say like, Oh, reviews can be faked. And it's like,
well, these are all people that have invested and put their, you know,
money where their mouths are. So, so yeah, I think, you know,
not only are those really good if you're considering investing,
but like if you look at these stories,
you actually can get a good idea of how real
people are using it as well. Yeah, absolutely. I'll give a personal anecdote real fast. And
just the other day, last week, actually, Wednesday or Thursday, I was looking through, I pulled up
Prospero, we were talking about it, me and Jordan were actually, I think Evan was there as well,
and was just looking through it. And I saw both on the short and long-term bull list was Baidu, B-I-D-U, one of the Chinese companies. And we
saw that BABA, what they were doing at that same time. And I look and I see Baidu listed on both
short and long-term bull. I looked at the chart. I liked the chart. I said, hey, I'm going to go
ahead and get in it. And I'll tell you, I called this out live on Spaces. I'm in December calls, 130 calls for December. They're up 134% in just a few days. And that idea
came directly out of the Prospero app that I have on my phone for free. So I would love to throw in
that anecdote. And then as you were just mentioning, George, like I said, that link up top,
if you go in there and you'll see all the details, almost a quarter of a million dollars has been raised already.
And you'll see the reviews.
You'll see all kinds of great information in there.
And then some other pieces that we'll touch on here shortly.
I do want to bring Evan in if Evan's free.
Evan, are you able to speak for a moment?
I know you've got some travel stuff going on over there.
Yes, sir.
I am here.
I appreciate you guys.
I'm enjoying the space so far that other thing i
pinned up in the nest by the way was the the trade we're doing like a free trial for the trade signals
i don't know what exactly that is coming but uh if you guys want that and you can see all the
stuff for yourself and actually just kind of get the signals from it um yeah we're doing a one week
free trial for that george what what are we expecting on some of those signals?
And how is that different from what we already have?
Yeah, so I mean, I think, I mean, any given day,
what's kind of cool about the system
is it's pretty free forming in terms of right now,
as we're looking at these signals,
a lot of the times it can be coalescing of information, things like that.
Even when I look at it, I'm looking at a lot of different reports that people aren't seeing.
But basically, like a quick, like review of how this thing was created.
Like we, a little while ago, you know, we did like some really, you know, complex intellectual property, joint IP with NYU.
We were doing things as complex as evolving neural networks.
Over time, we found out in especially fast-changing markets,
it was hard to figure out how the models were working
or anything like that.
So when we first set up Prospero,
we actually took a full step back.
We actually studied what our more advanced models
of lots of different types were doing,
and we simplified the approach.
And we basically built these reliable linear formulas of different signals. So an example of
like for net option sentiment, like we're talking about, we're looking at different things on,
you know, the price skew, the volume, the open interest. And, you know, those are all like,
you know, scaled signals that become a larger scaled signal. And, you know, where AI comes in the system, you know, in the
existing system is basically we're looking at sensors, we're looking at market information,
we're looking at things like QQQ, SPY, and option sentiment to take the weights of the information
and alter the signals to make them, we think, more useful for what is going on exactly right now.
The new alert system is actually, you know,
scrapping that sensor system on top of all the metadata
and the model metadata, some of it going back as long as 15 years.
We've been doing this for a very long time.
And instead of saying, like, how do I alter the weights,
now it's saying, you know, a few different pieces of information.
It's saying, like, what is the best opportunity in this moment
based on all the previous metadata, as well as, you know, some of the most more advanced, you know, LLMs of different types in the best opportunity, it's telling me what signals it's seeing, what it's
seeing in the news, what trends. So that's giving like, you know, conviction in terms of, you know,
what we're ultimately able to send. So yeah, we've been working on this kind of like R&D on the top
of, you know, our current signals for a bit now. And yeah, it's pretty exciting in terms of the
results that we're seeing as
well as the way we're able to integrate kind of like our old
you know, very older, very reliable like linear based
signals that work really well, you know, with the most you
know, modern, fastest, you know, widest analysis ability in
terms of the current models that are coming out today.
I'll jump back in right there.
I do want to clarify just a little bit on this or a few pieces I want to clarify here.
So obviously the app itself, George, is free.
Anybody can download it, start using it, utilizing it,
and they'll have a lot
of these basic features that I was just speaking about just a little bit earlier. And then the
signals things is one of the things, the flagship thing that you guys have been developing for a
while. There's also a piece, so there's a free trial, it sounds like. And then just to clarify,
I also know that as part of this investment opportunity into you guys, that there's also
some levels there that will actually give you some access
to the trade alerts as well.
Can we just clarify a few of these pieces?
Yes, yeah.
So I think like I'll actually just like run through
our different products as part of this too,
because there's other things that are getting offered
as part of this thing that's being distributed.
Okay, so the existing app, it's free,
that's free to anyone,
but there was no monetization in that previously.
But these alerts are now going in the app
and what we're offering as an X special
is free for one week when we release it next week, roughly,
for anyone that signs up, drops their email,
you know, there. But it's only a week, right? At $300 or more, you know, you get the alerts for,
you know, four months, you know, up until, you know, a lot more as the amounts go up.
And yeah, like right now, we're going to give this free for a week. But, you know, even after
they expire, it's nobody's going to be able to pay for them. Right. The only way to actually get these alerts
on an ongoing basis, we're giving people, you know, kind of a taste is to invest in the crowd
fund. And, you know, that's that's for a specific reason. You know, we you know, we really want
to see, you know, and let us kind of roll out these product to people that, you know, believe
in the product the most, you know, the people that, you know, you know, that we view are going to be the
best evangelizers of the product. That's why, you know, the way we're actually pricing, pricing the
crowdfund, it's actually like a very, you know, a lot of the time, it's a very small premium behind
the $50 a month alerts on that would happen anyway. But, you know, to say all the difference,
the app is kind of like, you know, self-starter free form.
Other than these alerts, the alerts are going to be the first thing that really direct people in the app, give them, you know, ideas outside of just how we lay out our picks.
Then we also have our newsletters that we're also offering free trials of as part of this, you know, one week free, which we don't normally do that either.
And those are 10 and 10 for the investment or $20 for the trading letter. And that's basically like how, you know, I take the signals and, you know, teach around them and
build portfolios. I'm in the investing letter and you kind of get updates, midweek updates for that.
Then the trading letter is like kind of a more automated, larger portfolio, very signal driven.
And, you know, those are the different ways to kind of access the products.
But these alerts, we think are, you know, as I mentioned, are going to be both our,
you know, both our easiest to use and also, you know, most advanced. I think most,
it's going to be the most effective product as well.
Oh, great rundown. I appreciate that, George. Just want to make sure we had that
clear for everyone. A lot of great things happening over at Prospero. I do want to bring in some of my friends up here on stage that I know have dove into Prospero and have the app and have maybe utilized it some in their trading and then also looked at this opportunity here. And one of them is our friend Corey. Corey, great to have you on the space again. Some of our audience, of course, will recognize you on here. So great to have you back on here. And just wanted to say hello. Hope
you're doing well and see how have you been using Prospero? What are your thoughts around it and
anything that you want to throw into the mix here? Hey, thanks so much for having me. It's
good to be here. Yeah. So kind of my backstory, I backstory, I, you know, I started a couple of years ago,
I think two or three years ago, I actually started using Prospero. But prior to that,
I had been an index fund investor. So it's totally boring. I, you know, I was just dollar
cost averaging every, every payday. I really wasn't even watching the market that much.
But as I saw the growth in those accounts, I thought, oh, you know, there is obviously something to this. So through the years, I started playing with some single stocks,
but I never actually had any tools or to be honest, like any much education when it came to
stocks or much time because I work a lot of hours. But as my interest peaked, uh, it, it worked perfectly because then I, I found the
Prospero app. I met George and, um, at first, you know, it's, it's a little difficult, um, just
because we're all used to these charts and we're not, we're not, um, we're not ready for like a
different type of visual, but actually once you get to, you get used to it, you see that, Hey,
there's only 10 indicators here. It's very visual. It, you get used to it, you see that, Hey, there's only 10 indicators
here. It's very visual. It, you know, it kind of looks almost like a spider web. Um, obviously the,
on the, the positive indicators, the closer they are to the outside means the higher number,
which is a good thing. Um, and then recently added to the app, well, it's probably been a year or so,
but, um, at the bottom there are charts. So if you don't like the visuals at the top, you can
even look at the trend lines at the bottom. So getting used to seeing those trend lines,
seeing some of the bigger names, like George mentioned, Meta, Tesla was at the top a couple
years ago for a while. So just getting used to seeing the names and then like, you know, seeing how how the certain scores would impact the the price.
It was just very interesting to me to kind of pick up patterns that way.
So in the last like probably year and a half to a year, I've started to get a bit more serious, a bit more regular, doing more day trading than than really just buying holding.
Of course, I still have my buy and hold account,
but my trading portfolio has grown quite a bit over the last year. So that's how I use it. I mean,
every morning I'm looking at it. The other thing that I've also learned from George and his
newsletters are, you know, if you look at the SPY and the QQQ, those are pretty broad indexes and looking
at those scores, you know, if they're in around 40 or higher, then it's, it's likely going
to be a good day.
Um, and then if they get low, like under 30, you know, it's probably going to be a red
day and I'm, I'm more of a buyer.
So a long trader, I don't generally short the market.
So if I see that the scores are pretty low, I'm probably not going to give the market much time that day. So I kind of have these patterns.
I've just like worked my way around the app and really started to learn it and understand,
again, how the scores sometimes, you know, how it, it doesn't impact the prices, but how it
works with the prices and how it captures some of the movement. So for me, it's been a really great
tool. I love it. I personally did invest in this crowdfund just because I believe in the product.
I see the growth potential and yeah, I'm a huge fan.
I do want to throw in one quick tidbit and then I've got another question for you, Corey, but
you mentioned you only like to buy and you're're more of a long-biased type of trader or long-focused
trader, but there are the bear side too, just so if anybody's in the audience going, well, I like
to short the market. Well, there's actually some great bear ideas, and George has actually even
come on some of our trading spaces and called some of those out in real time. Corey, I want to ask
you something as well. When you are looking at the opportunities
and you're saying, okay, well, maybe the scores aren't so good right now. Maybe it's better to
wait a little bit. When you are holding anything for a little bit longer term, do you, because
I've done this, I look at this like, okay, should I be selling a position here? And then I can go
look at an unbiased AI review of something and say, wait, this is still got very strong metrics.
Maybe I should hold on to this a little bit longer and kind of weed the emotions out by using the AI.
Yeah, yeah.
That is one thing that I still am not super disciplined.
Obviously, I try to buy stocks and I try to be completely emotionless when I do it. I try to look at stats and numbers and try to keep, you know,
my emotions at bay because that's the best way to, to invest or to trade. But, but yeah, I mean,
having, so having the Prospero app and then looking at a chart and getting that, I think the
word is confluence. So basically alignment. So both, you know, both of the tools say the same
thing. And if they're both giving you that buy signal, then, you know, do it. And if they're not, don't let your emotions make you let you hit the buy the buy button. Because, like you said, like, trying to separate the emotions and having a tool like Prospero or, you know, like a chart or whatever other tools are out there, you know, looking at the data and reading the numbers
and when the numbers are right, go ahead.
And then having the discipline to not do what you want to do
when the numbers tell you that it's not the right time,
that is something that the best traders in the world,
they're really good at.
It's that mindset and that discipline.
Yeah, absolutely, Corey.
I appreciate you sharing that.
George, wanted to see if anything that Corey touched on there
sparked any thoughts that you wanted to add on to.
No, I mean, I think it's been great.
Corey was one of the first people I met on X talking about it.
And yeah, initially, we're on V4 of our app right now.
V3 of the app was a little harder to learn.
You know, V4 was created by a former creative director at Apple.
So, you know, we kind of got exactly who we were looking for in terms of, you know, making
sure it would be, you know, as intuitive as possible.
So, yeah, I mean, Corey, you know, I was talking to Corey and, you know,
trying to help people that I thought, you know, can help their process using it. So yeah, it's
been, it's been cool to watch her journey from, you know, someone that's like, you know, her
kind of first reaction was, you know, I don't think it fits in with my process to, you know,
changing her process, you know, with this supporting it, you know, that's, you know, we couldn't, you know, we couldn't kind of ask for a better,
you know, user journey than that.
All right. A follow-up question here. When it comes to using AI to invest,
the average person is not like Stock Talk that, you know, doesn't sleep three hours a night and
is reading research until 2 a.m., wakes up at 4 a.m.
How many data points, I mean, when I look at the website here and I went to the link and I'm going
down to highlights, 100 million data points distilled to 10,000 proprietary models and 10
signals. How many data points are you guys able to sweep through? And how much, I mean, that sounds
like it just saves people a ton of
time that don't have like StockTalk's engine up there.
Yeah, I mean, especially when you're talking about like, you know, how many, you know,
different options contracts are transacted on a day, you know, even just kind of like
sorting through that data set and creating like, you know, a condensed signal out of
it alone is just just tons of work.
And the funny story about how our best, most reliable signal in an option set was created
is I actually used to, I spend a lot of my time, I try to use the Google 20% rule on
rule on, on just teaching people how to invest or trade, you know, giving them best practices.
just teaching people how to invest or trade, giving them best practices.
Um, and, and, you know, I was trying to teach a lot of people how to read an options chain,
um, over the years. And, and, you know, it was like kind of one Friday afternoon where I was
like getting a little exhausted and, and, um, and I was trying to teach someone, I was like
frustrated. I was like, what if I just told you the options market like this or didn't like this?
And the guy was like, well, if you could tell me that, then, then, you know, we'd be saving a lot of time here. So I was like, great. And I,
I got to work on, on condensing, you know, a lot of the different algorithms that were kind of like
sensing there and condensing the information and then just, you know, making it like everything
else and into one number. So yeah, I think that, you know, that's really the beauty of Prospero.
And, you know, there is no substitute for, you know, when I started in value investing,
it was like the first thing I was told to do was like read through every, you know,
10K and 10Q at every conference call for the company I was covering.
Like, you know, even if you're asking an AI to summarize that for you, like there's no substitute for the knowledge that you'll get from being able to do that, reading about the competitors, whatever.
But, you know, the majority of people, including myself now, do not have that much time.
And for those people, you know, Prospero can really shrink the time for you to, you know, understand not completely, but get a good understanding of what's going on with the stock.
So especially in fast-changing market conditions, you can make an informed decision.
Boom, there you have it. Speaking of somebody that reads through
pages and pages of reports, this guy has over, I think, 25 hours in his day instead of like the
rest of us. Stock Talk, I want to bring you in and ask you, as somebody that does research a ton,
I know you invest in AI. I know you've started using LLMs a lot in your investing. I want to
ask you what your thoughts are around the future of investing. AI has to be in that conversation,
not just investing in AI, but investing with AI.
How are you using AI and you're investing stuff
and you see stuff like Prospero?
And we've seen obviously some other people that are saying,
hey, AI is what's going to help bridge that gap
between institutions and the retail trader.
And then you're somebody that spends hours and hours
and hours, how much time does this save you
to be able to come down into something and process so much information in a quicker form?
Yeah, no, I think it's a great question. I mean, I think the short answer, and I'll obviously go
into more detail, is that, yeah, it's going to play a huge role. You know, I talked, we talked
about this actually a couple spaces ago and this idea of like the the information
and the knowledge gap between uh sorry that's my dog lapping water in the background if you
hear that but um we talked about the the information gap right between uh retail and
institutions and i think if you go back like 40 years, it was really wide.
It was like, you know, immeasurably wide.
And it was such a wide knowledge and information gap between between retail institutions that, you know, 40, 50 years ago, the average person rarely traded stocks.
And if they did, it was through a very mechanized, slow process. You
call a broker who then files the trade for you. It was a completely different era of both technology
and behavioral finance. And since then, every decade, that gap has been narrowed, right?
Not as significantly in the prior 30 years,
but very significantly in the last 10.
And it's been narrowed from a variety of things,
but number one is the access to information.
And AI tools, you know, Prospero, I think,
has done a great job of jumping into this space
at a very early juncture and sort of figuring out
the things that work and the things that don't.
But AI tools are sort of the next rendition of that gap narrowing. And it's part of the reason
why retail, in my view, has been performing so well in these past five years, right? Because
at this point, we can't just call this a flash in the pan, right? If 2020 and 2021 were just the heartbeat in the market and the attitudes that came out of the COVID recovery, and I'm talking about the market attitudes, the type of speculation that came out of the recovery recovery, if it had just died in 2022 permanently, I think you probably would have looked back on this period and said, yeah, all the new retail participation, all the new speculation, all the new AI tools,
they haven't really made a measurable difference in markets and retails wiped out all over again
in the very first correction. But that didn't happen. Retail didn't get wiped out in 2022.
And new account openings hit highs in all those years. And part of the reason why I think is,
you know, this continuing information gap narrowing. I know so many active traders now
that use AI tools regularly to navigate information, you know, like just three or
four years ago when a PR would come out, not even three or four years ago, let's say five or six
years ago when a PR would come out, what I would do would, I would pull that PR up, go through it, read it, and then head down a Google
rabbit hole trying to find four or five companies that might be relevant to the information there.
Now, I just feed it to LLMs, right? And I got a list of 20 mid-cap companies, then I narrow it
down from there. And it's like tools like Prospero now make
that type of analysis easier at your fingertips. They also make options flow type of analysis much
easier at your fingertips. They make really any sort of market analysis easier and more accessible.
And that trend isn't really going to slow down. It's going to accelerate as more and more retail
participation not only rises, but this huge inheritance trend that's coming in
the next eight to 10 years. You know, the previous generation of people, we were talking about this
just earlier on the space a couple hours ago, but, you know, 30 years ago, if a 30-year-old
inherited half a million dollars from their parent who passed away, they may call
a financial advisor, a Charles Schwab, and say, hey, look, I have this money and I need to be
managed. Today, if a 30-year-old's parent passes away and they inherit $500,000 liquid, a lot of
them are just going to put it into a brokerage account. And they're going to be looking for tools
that can accelerate their performance and allow them to manage that money as professionally as possible. And AI tools have made that easier to do. I mean,
you know, I'm in the camp that financial advisement is slowly dying, and I think it'll
continue to die in the next decade. And I think more and more people are taking personal control
and being self-reliant with their own finances. And I think it's a product of a democratization of brokerages and be democratization of knowledge through things like AI. behaviorally, but from an information standpoint. And the LLMs are getting really good at
finding this type of information and finding suitable companies and finding relevant
companies. They're becoming very useful tools. I mean, I use AI every single day when I'm
investing in trading. And I couldn't even go back. I couldn't imagine going back now. And it was just
a couple of years ago that I was doing all of this same stuff without AI. I was still doing my market research in the
morning, still reading my Wall Street research, but I could just handle much less information.
So yeah, it's changed everything. And I think it's going to be something that's maybe niche today,
is going to be not so niche in a couple of years as, you know, frankly, hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars in inherited capital are going to be managed on a personal basis at far higher rates than they were in previous decades, previous generations.
So all the finance is really changing underneath us, you know, and you look at the
trends and stocks like Robinhood and they speak that same thing loudly as well. So, yeah.
Some really great points there, Sox Talks. One of the most interesting things is when I think about
all those people that with the inheritance to putting into Robinhood, we've talked about Robinhood,
but they're using AI that this generation, if you're not using AI,
you're getting left behind.
So seeing those two and two come together
and financial advisors kind of,
why would I use a financial advisor?
I can use AI for much less a portion of my gains
and probably perform just as well.
Stock Talk's talked about on this space multiple times
that bear market back in 2022 and how brutal it was.
And just looking down here on that link that I posted up top,
you can see the results that Prospero has posted here in 2022
returned 52.87% while the S&P was down 18% that year.
So just fantastic results as well.
George, you heard some of the Stock Talk stuff
there, anything to add there? And of course, I mean, looking at the metrics and stuff,
is Prospero itself improving as you've been a part of it and as you've developed this,
how is it improving year by year? Yeah, I mean, I really echo what Stock
Talk is saying. And I mean, I think especially, you know, what's cool about the
trend that we're seeing is, you know, there's a reason that we've spent a lot of our time on X
in terms of, you know, reaching out to influencers, things like that. Because I kind of agree that,
you know, what Prospero is doing is kind of an extension of what was already happening on X.
I think there's a lot of, you know, a lot of smart people sharing good research, sharing, you know, good, you know, charting analysis, things like that.
And yeah, I think the more we kind of like we grow the community, the tools, you know,
I'm also been, you know, I've been not only impressed with, you know, how much, you know,
more informed retail investors are getting, but also to the extent that now institutions have to
respond to that. And we're just seeing more and more evidence of, you know, I think it's 75% of
funds use social media as an input to their models now. And that's just like such a huge change
from like, you know, pretty much looking down on retail as just dumb money to being like,
hey, we got to know what they're doing. Because we've seen in a lot of situations that retail
can keep, even if it's at traditional valuations that institutions would scoff at, retail and
the institutions that ultimately follow the momentum of retail,
we're definitely seeing that become much, some of these valuations that are called crazy. I'm thinking about stuff like Palantir. And not only had it sustained it, I expect it to continue to
sustain that. And that's because I think institutions have to take
the way retail views these stocks more seriously than they ever have. And yeah, I think that's
some thinking that we really wanted to be ahead of the curve on because a lot of how some of our
key signals are evaluating these stocks is saying like, no, we don't like, you know, we,
you know, I did mention, we do have some signals that are like, let's take a look at some of these
traditional, you know, growth, you know, revenue growth, you know, profit metrics. But then let's
also get a really good view into like, what the options markets are saying, let's visualize that.
So, you know, we can get that picture because like the, the only reason that option sentiment has worked as well as it has is because
we're kind of capitalizing on that trend of like how important momentum has
become in the market.
Absolutely. Couldn't agree more. There's some great additional color there,
George. Appreciate that.
Our friend Omar has joined us up here on stage.
A lot of our audience knows Omar, frequencies, spaces, big tech guy himself, big Tesla guy,
of course.
Omar, you're big in the AI space.
You're big in the tech space.
And I know you've dug into Prospero and that you use it as well.
Would love to hear kind of about your experience using it and your thoughts around using AI
as you invest.
Hey, yeah, I really love the conversation I popped in here. I love what Stock Talk is saying.
I mean, this has been a theme I've been really focused in on too, is just how AI has transformed
investing. And I think more and more, the tools that you use are going to make a huge difference.
Stocktalk talked about things like looking at earnings calls. You can use AI to now transcribe
the entire earnings call, analyze it, figure out what trades to make. You can ask these LLMs to read SEC filings.
It's just difficult to imagine how somebody stays competitive with somebody who's using
these kinds of cutting edge tools if you don't have them. So this is a theme that I'm really
interested in. I think with Prospero, I've been using Prospero for a
while. Recently, I've become an investor through their crowdfund, which I think is really cool
that they give users the opportunity to do that. A lot of the time with these companies,
your users just don't get that opportunity until maybe many, many years later when they go public.
So I'm excited that I own some shares too. But it really kind of zeroes in on exactly what we're
talking about here. The retail activity, you can see that reflected in the options market,
see that reflected in the options market, right? Your average retail investor now has access to
the options market. These signals kind of bleed through and that's exactly what apps like
Prospero pick up on. So George and I have actually done a few spaces, a few bull bear debates,
some of the stocks that were looking interesting with some of the signals and that just had a lot of interest from crowds.
It's been interesting to see Palantir.
We debated that one.
Looked like the valuation was very stretched by a lot of metrics, but it continued to do very well.
We just did a discussion on Robinhood, and they just got included in the S&P 500, which
there was kind of a few false starts there.
People were kind of wondering if they'd get let in.
That's kind of a huge moment, I think, kind of a landmark in this era of really retail playing a much bigger role in the
market as Robinhood actually becoming part of the S&P 500. But yeah, it's a really great time to be
an investor. Obviously, there's a lot of growth in the market from AI. These themes also, I think, make it a lot easier to be a retail investor, and they narrow
the gap between retail and institutional investors. And that's really what I love about Prospero's app
in particular is it just makes it dead simple. You don't need to be an expert in options or derivatives or really need to have that much of a financial background.
You can just download the app for free on the App Store, look up any stock that you're interested in,
some stock your friend told you about, and you can just see the signals right there.
It's just dead simple. The main
screen, long term bull and bear pics. It, you know, you don't need to be a genius to be able
to look at this and start getting some ideas, start doing some research. And now they've got
this alerts product too, for people who join the crowdfundfund where they'll just send you a little
push notification. So it's something that I kind of check. I wake up, I'll check my brokerage account,
I'll look at my portfolio companies, then I'll open Prospero, I'll look at the short-term and
long-term bull and bear picks, take a look at some of those names, dig deeper. I mean, I can't tell you how many times there was
a name that I just wasn't thinking about at all that floated to the top of the list on Prospero.
And I took a look at it and ended up, you know, making a good trade, either one way or the other
opening or closing the position. So it's really handy to do just for that and when i'm making a decision on position sizing
whether to increase or decrease the size of a position i'm looking at other factors i'll
usually open up prospero and just go into the search section too and look at how prospero signals
are uh are trending so, it's dead simple.
Go download the app.
Go join the crowdfund.
But yeah, I'm just trying out every AI tool that I can right now
to help generate better returns.
And this is definitely one that
one that has found its way onto my home screen.
has found its way onto my home screen.
It's a great rundown there from Omar, a guy that we know is big into tech, big into AI,
and also investing itself. And I did see recently where you had posted that you publicly went ahead
and got into this crowdfund a little bit. George, as Omar was mentioning that,
and you also mentioned about getting the trade alerts, I just wanted to remind everyone and see
if you wanted to touch on that. Once again, the link's up top if you want to check it out.
But George, you do get access to some of the trade alerts that we were just hearing Omar talk about a
little bit there. What are the levels and stuff? I see a few different options
here. I see that for as little as $250, you can get a little bit of investment in here. And then
there's some levels beyond that. Do you want to touch on those real fast for us, George?
Yeah, I mean, $250 is like what is the entry level, right? But that doesn't actually get you the alerts. And so actually
right now, 300 does get you four months free of the alerts, but we actually limited those,
we limited those to 100 and we have 49 of them left. And then after that, the minimum entry
point will be 500 and then six months of free alerts. And then, you know,
after that, it kind of scales up a year at a thousand, et cetera. Then, you know, at higher levels, there's like some swag and stuff. But, but yeah, we wanted to make it, we wanted to make
it pretty, pretty simple for people to get access to these free alerts. But, you know, at the $300
level, we were trying to incentivize, you know, reward people that, you know, came in a little early. You will be able to buy the alerts, you know, probably starting
November, maybe December, we haven't really decided exactly on, you know, the paid release yet.
But yeah, I mean, if you look at it, that's a $50 a month product, you know, at $300 for four months, you know, you're basically getting,
you know, to try the alerts and getting, you know, a discounted value, you know, a hugely
discounted valuation if you think you might be willing to pay for the alerts to try them out for
a few months anyway. I was just about to say, if I was going to try out the alerts myself,
I might as well invest. It seems like money would essentially
cover that. It's very interesting. Definitely worth checking out. I did get tagged by one of
our listeners that the last thing that they looked at right before buying calls on Oracle today was
Prospero. That was what pushed them over the edge, was using the Prospero AI tool right there on
their phone. Obviously, that's going to work out for a wonderful win. So shout out to that person. Sam Solid joined us up here on stage as well. Sam,
wanted to give you a chance to jump into the conversation here and share any thoughts you
have around using Prospero and using AI to invest and then the opportunity as well to get into the
private investing side. Yeah, I mean, I'm not an active trader by any means.
I know you guys are very much experts at it much more than I am.
But Prospero, I do some swing trades here and there.
And whenever I initiate positions for the long term,
I do look at the sentiment indicator as well as the net option sentiment indicator.
Just what I want to get in
the size and the position for the long-term perspective. For example, today I was looking
to get into Duolingo and I did like some of the sentiment readings that I was seeing with Duolingo
and especially, I don't know if you guys were watching the chart today, but I mean really,
when Apple came out with that news that the airpods 3
were come airpods pro 3 were coming out and it had the live translation the stock went from being up
five and a half percent to being down three and a half percent intraday and that was when i initiated
some uh long-term buy orders added for the position and it was pretty interesting because
if you looked at the uh short term you could see the net options was at 70, the dark pool was at 70, and the net social was at 70.
And even for the long term, especially, the upside was at 79, which is around the 80th percentile for that score.
Obviously, profitability is pretty high.
So is growth and so is market similarity.
But when you think about a company, there was a lot of FUD being driven by the stock.
But when you looked at Prospero, it was actually quite bullish on the long term, even the short
term per se.
So that was a pretty interesting read to see in that one before I started hitting the
buy button on multiple orders today as it was creeping down below 260.
And we're sitting here today and it's actually up in the day. So it had a crazy 8%, 9% move from peak to trough
and then ended up recovering that 4% drawdown
that actually closed up in the day.
You could have slept last night after the market closed
and woke up after the market closed
and you would see Duolingo exactly where it was at.
So like Corey was saying,
it really drowns out the noise in the market,
especially when you're on Twitter.
Like I'm a content creator myself,
so I have to be all over Twitter as well.
But there is so much fun happening around
and it actually does affect the stock price.
But when you have a tool,
including Prospera in your tool belt,
it helps you keep grounded to just drown out the noise, man.
I mean, obviously there's some times when like the noise is actually ends up being true, but
it like stock tax and saying, if you've been listening to that noise the last three years,
you're going to be under you. You're going to be under allocated in the market right now.
And you're going to be hoping for a pullback. It's better to be in a position of power versus
a position of weakness in the market. Right? So it's easier to trim when you're up a lot in a position,
but it's very difficult to make the argument
to start a new position, especially a big one,
if you've missed the rally since April.
Sam, the way I always like to put it, Sam,
is it's much easier to stay long than it is to get long.
Yeah, exactly.
And there's also the saying too that, you know,
it feels a lot better to wish that you were in a trade than wish you weren't in a trade. Because we've all been in trades where the thing was just drawing down over and over again. You're trying to come up with reasons that you want to get out, but you want to stick in because you don't want to miss that bounce and so on. But when you've got a tool at Chris Perot, well, I mean, what does it look like over there? Is it short in the bear side? Is sentiment getting very bad? Or is
sentiment actually really good, but the stock is moving down? Whenever I see indicators like that,
like if a stock is dropping and it just appears to me that people are entirely too bullish on it,
and there's a very clear reason why the stock is dropping, well, then that makes you kind of,
wait a little bit there. But for Duolingo, I certainly didn't see that on the Prospero tool.
Yes, there's quite a few people who are bullish on Duolingo, but at the same time, their quarterly earnings were just amazing.
It is pure narrative that's really driving down the price. And that happens a lot in the stock
market. And really, if you missed April, you're probably sitting here hoping the market pulls
back. Think about the narrative around Google, right? And look where it's at now.
Exactly. That was actually something that was on Prospero too the whole time.
I was looking at Prospero the whole time during that.
And I was actually debating on getting some call options I sold out to early, of course,
like I usually do.
But that's what I was going by during that one.
It was like, dude, this chart looks so bad.
The narrative is so bad.
But the earnings were just fine.
What's driving?
It's the narrative. The narrative usually is one driving stock percent. And just fine. What's driving? It's the narrative.
The narrative usually is one driving stock percent. And look where Google is at today.
It's at all time highs. Yeah. What a perfect example. Just came to mind as you were mentioning
that right there. Just kind of came to my mind. I remember that Mercado Libre, another one that
a company that I like, I know that you like, Sam, and you look at it, it's been on the long-term
bull list for a long time. And it's one of those that I probably would have sold out or I probably would have gotten shaken
out a couple of times, just the way that the price action moved a little bit. But you zoom
out and look at it on a weekly, monthly type of chart. It's just in a straight up trend. And it
just continues to stay on Prospero's long-term bull list. And it continues to stay in my portfolio
as it is my core position, actually. It is my number one position and you know i get the emotions i talked about this earlier
with cory i get those emotions and i can go look at things that are emotionalists like ai and say
okay i probably need to hold on to this and look here we are just sitting up here consolidating
at all-time highs after an incredible run over the last couple of years. Omar, saw your hand go up. I want to toss you the mic.
Yeah. Someone mentioned Google and that was definitely one that
Prospero really helped me build conviction for.
If you kind of remember in the early days of chat GPT,
there was really this narrative that while Google search is over,
everybody's just going to be using these LLMs.
And they've come back in a major way and are now putting out some of the best models.
They've integrated it through their product.
I mean, some of these things you see with VO3 and Genie,
they're just doing incredible things, leveraging all their data sets.
And when you looked at the signals in Prospero, when you look at things like net option sentiment, this really reflects a lot of, you know, when someone's making a bet that
we think Google's going to do well long term, this could be somebody who has some insight,
is maybe an expert, maybe an insider to some degree, an employee who knows
what kinds of things the company is working on internally. The public narrative was very
different than what the options market was saying and what Prospero's signals were saying.
And that was one where Prospero helped me build a lot of conviction. I initiated a much larger position in Google than what I had.
And now it looks like they're really playing a central role in this AI theme that we're seeing.
So I was really happy for those signals when I was building that position.
Dude, you'd know more than anyone, man.
Tesla was at $150 and sentiment was so bad.
I did not look at Prosper at the time,
but sentiment was so bad coming into their earnings.
It was just the worst sentiment you've ever seen.
It was just outlandish FUD left and right.
And they reported earnings, which weren't even that great.
In fact, they were pretty bad, but it wasn't as bad as expected.
And then the thing just, that was the last time we saw it below 200 in a while.
Oh yeah, totally.
You know, I think at its lowest point, it touched almost close to a hundred.
Prospero had a really strong upside ranking
for Tesla. And well, that was an easy way to kind of double your money right there.
But it seems obvious in retrospect at that point where sentiment is at a low,
and you just feel like you're crazy if you buy this stock, that's when looking at these signals can really help you kind of
build some data based conviction.
Yeah, and I'd actually add for me, that's where it's been most useful
as I was building it out to say, like, you know, what help do I really need?
Because I would say what I struggled with the most was, you know, even when I had conviction
with stocks, if I saw like the price action move down, you know, coming from the institutional
side, you know, no matter what I thought, like these thoughts in my head would creep
in and they'd be like, well, it looks good to me, but maybe institutions know something
that I don't.
And that could always be a possibility.
But being able to lean on these numbers and being able to look at aggregated institutional
bets, a lot of the times it's switched from all these doubts, and maybe I won't get back
in until I see the price a little more.
We're like, I love it if I see a stock tanking, and especially things like net option sentiment
or upside.
Tesla's been at 100 upside for a bit.
If we see, if I saw that go up to me, that's an, a big opportunity.
And I'm just like, okay, it's time for me to get in this.
Whereas before I would be more avoidant of those situations, um, because I'd be wondering
what I don't know.
This gives me confidence that, you know, what I, what I don't know, I could see a little
bit more in front of me in terms of
the dynamics and the options markets and really clear visuals.
That's fantastic additional commentary again, George. One quick question on the alert side of
things. We've had multiple different perspectives up here. We have higher frequency traders. We have more longer term investors. The signals and the alerts, are they day trading type of alerts? Are
they swing trading type of alerts? What type of alerts are we looking at here as they come out?
I mean, if you had to put them in one bucket, it's going to be swing trading.
But what we're going to try to do more that we don't do as much,
and especially as we expand them, there's definitely going to be ones that there's
going to be a longer thesis on. Part of the alerts is there's going to be entries and exits
delivered. So one of the things we are going to be more communicative of, especially if we see what we think is a really good long-term setup, that, you know, we will, you know, be more
informative on like, you know, this one looks like a bit of a longer hold versus swing trade.
But I mean, the issue is, and you know, a lot of people ask us for price targets. And, you know,
the tough thing is the best parts about the signals can be the worst parts for people that want to set it and forget it.
Because at the end of the day,
there's nothing, like no matter how much I love a long,
like if I get in at a 90 or an 80 net option set to it
and I see it go to a 60 or 50,
there's nothing that could possibly keep me
in that investment, no matter how long of a thesis I have.
That's the difference.
There's some people that might be able to say,
I love this company long-term,
and I don't care if the net option sentiment goes down.
But for us, one of the things that's made us so
successful is really just going with what the signals say.
There you have it.
George, we're coming towards the top of the hour here. It's been a great of things look like as far as the
opportunity to get in now? How long have you guys been around, I think would be a good question to
start with. And what kind of projection roadmap do you guys have as we're rolling into, and you
mentioned some of the different things that you're looking to monetize with the alerts, you have the
newsletter. What's the business side of things look like as we close out the space? Yeah, so we've been around for six years.
But, you know, one of the things that I'm really proud of is our quality control mechanisms.
Like the first, you know, three years, I was pretty much the only user of the Prospero
signals.
And my theory behind that was unless I could hit it at a very high rate with this, with
all my, you know, experience, no one else will be able to.
So the first three years were really just me making sure that everything we were doing was representative and it worked before we started letting other people in.
And it's only been the last, I'd say, year or so when we've had our latest version, V4, out.
And then we were still working, I would say, especially
on the educational resources before we wanted to start marketing it more. But then, you know,
in the last three months, actually, our app weekly actives have gone up 300%.
Our conversion to paid has gone up from before this from 6.87% to 9.31%. It was already a really good number.
That's our weekly actives on our newsletters converting. I'd say one of the exciting things,
the most exciting things is the way we're retaining users in the app. The app monthly
actives, three months ago, we were at about 4,800 returning users in the month,
and that was 42 percent of the user base.
In August, we're actually at
8,400 returning users or 61 percent of the user base.
It's really cool to see that growth.
Then also raising the retention while you're growing that fast. It shows,
you know, I'd say not only that we've done a good job in the resources, but I'd say, you know,
a testament to the people that are, you know, out there talking about it on X. It's, you know,
it's important to bring the right users in that understand what they're, that we're getting. So
when they arrive, you know, they're not disappointed. So yeah, that's really exciting. And that's
actually allowed us to raise our projections. So we actually expect to do 1.5 million in revenue
next year. And by 2028, 2027, we're going to start to roll out wealth management products like ETF,
mutual fund, maybe smart portfolios with like, you know, partners on, you know,
kind of those copy trading things. You know, we might do all three, we might do one. But yeah,
by 2028, now we're projecting 13.6 million in revenue, you know, basically the first full year
of those wealth management products. So yeah, you know, we're really grateful to everybody that's,
you know, started to use the product, you know, gotten this rapid growth in the last three months to people that have, you know,
gotten in on the crowdfund. You know, we think it's a really, really exciting time for us. And
we're really thankful for all the people that are, you know, so excited about the product.
Well, I do want to say thanks for joining us today, George, and thank you to the whole panel
that came on and hung out with us, shared some thoughts here.
I did notice, once again, that link, it's up in the nest if you're interested.
There's a couple pieces here that I want everyone to take away from this conversation.
Obviously, one of those, Prospero AI, invest with AI.
Definitely check it out.
Get it on your phone.
You can go to your App Store or the Google Pay Store, whichever device you use and download that piece for free.
And then obviously a lot of things going. And then on top of that,
the opportunity to invest in AI itself here with Prospero.
I see a couple of people actually went in and went ahead and made an investment
while we were on this very space. So shout out to you guys. And George,
any final words to leave with everyone today?
Yeah, I mean, I'll say, you know, I kind of alluded to this, but, you know, if you're curious
about the, you know, the Prospero products, how to use them, you know, you want, you want to get
some discounts or free trials from me, email me at georgeatprospero.ai. I love to help people. And,
you know, even if it's not getting, you know, even if it's not a user of Prospero, you know, some people I say, you know, I think ETFs are the right thing for you. But yeah, you can feel free to reach out to me.
Boom, there you have it. And Jordan, I saw you clapping over there. I know I didn't make it over to you.
Oh, no, you're good. Me and George have talked plenty and the audience knows, you know, we've been on Spaces talking.
Absolutely.
I think everybody in the audience, you know, take advantage.
At least go look at the information on the website and see if it's something for you.
Because these opportunities are not coming around every day.
You know, we got these stocks to trade every day.
But these private investments and opportunities like this are not happening all the time.
So take a look into it and see if it's something for you. But great combo, guys. Really appreciate all y'all.
Boom. There you have it. Great way to close it out. Big thanks to Corey, Sam, Omar, Jordan.
We also saw our friend Heisenberg, Mr. Derivatives, in here hanging out up here on stage with us.
George, thanks for your time. Stock Talk, always co-hosting these spaces that we do each and every
day. We'll be back tomorrow afternoon right here on Stocks on Spaces. This entire thing was recorded,
so if you missed any of the market talk discussion earlier, the victory lap on Nebius from Stock
Talk, a classic rant. If you missed it, you got to go back and listen to it. It's always great.
Oh, man, I missed that.
Yeah, it was good. And we railed on evan a little bit even
though he wasn't here so i'm gonna just send him the recording of this a convenient day for evan to
not make it to the space but uh he did stop by here obviously at the beginning of this because
of the the prospero stuff i know he's been looking at it and using it as well big shout out to
everyone i'm gonna close this down now like i said it will become a recording and uh once again that
link is up top.
If you're interested, you still have 51 days.
So you can jump in there, do some of your research, your due diligence on it.
Just want to put it on your radar.
And then, of course, once again, make sure you are investing with AI and the chance to
invest in AI as well.
Thanks, everyone.
Have a great rest of your Tuesday afternoon, evening, night, wherever you're at.
We appreciate you tuning into these spaces
and we will see you guys tomorrow. Thank you.
