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INVESTING WITH AI | PROSPERO AI
Recorded: Sept. 18, 2025 Duration: 3:59:48Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. What is up everyone?
What is up, everyone? Good afternoon. Happy Thursday. We survived the FOMC bear market
Good afternoon.
Happy Thursday.
of 2025, September. So we're all here. Great to see everyone. We are at all-time highs,
pretty much across the board here. So very, very good day for the stock market in general.
Obviously, some big news stories, some things going on. I'll save some of those for the panel to jump into, of course, but a little market
update to kick us off here a little bit. The NASDAQ, new all-time highs today, of course.
QQQ up 1.12%. The S&P 500, your SPY, is up 0.62%. And IWM, the small caps, up 2.5%, basically sitting at all-time high here.
Will it finally break through? That would be very interesting. The Dow Jones maybe lagging just a
little bit, but still fine, up 0.4% on the day. VIX crushed its way down a little bit, back under 15.5 right now, down about 1.7%. Yeah, some really interesting
things going on. Of course, crypto having a nice day and the crypto tickers an even better day
over there. BMNR has been talked about a lot around this space, doing very well today,
giving back just a little bit here in the afternoon portion of the day, but still up 4.6% on the day. Coinbase,
MSTR, Circle all having great days as well over there. CrowdStrike had some updated guidance that
is absolutely crushing it. New high of day just a few moments ago, up almost 13%. Of course, Intel
was on a lot of people's radar with the NVIDIA announcement, the investment there.
Very interesting piece there, up 23% holding in above this $30 area on Intel.
Big move over there.
And yeah, I'll leave some of that right there.
That I think is good enough to kick us off a little bit here.
And we've got a really good panel joining us today.
So we won't take up any more of your time because we've got some really good thoughts joining us today. So we won't take up any more of your time
because we've got some really good thoughts
coming right down the pipe for you guys.
So welcome in, happy Thursday.
And I'm excited to kick off this conversation.
And Daniel, I'd love to take advantage of your time.
Great to have you back on the space today.
Hope you're doing well.
How's everything going?
It's great.
It's great. 4 a.m. Yesterday,
I was right in on this NVIDIA Intel announcement. So I was waiting to sort of see how it reacted,
and it reacted pretty much as I'd expected it to. So a pretty big day. But then again,
right now, every day with AI seems to create a new cycle. So Daniel, as someone that's, you know, very deep in this
AI space, I guess, you're all over the market, but you know, very, very deep in this AI space.
And if you're not following Daniel yet, you should definitely check him out, feature him
as well. And of course, most of you guys know Shai, definitely check out all the different
things there. But I want to get your take around the Intel story.
NVIDIA, we saw some of the other stocks sell off a little bit,
some of the other semiconductors, but got bought up a little bit.
And Jensen even came out and said, hey, like ARM, for example,
the game plan's still there. I mean, is there, it seems like there's just enough to go around for everyone
and maybe just not enough to go in the meaning of that
there's too much to go around to everyone.
Is that kind of your take around this? What are your thoughts around everything going on
over there with Intel and NVIDIA and the AI trade? Yeah, there's a lot of posturing. And of course,
there's a lot of politicizing right now, literally politicizing and sort of how all these executives
are handling things. As I said, you know said in a tweet not all that long ago,
I said something along the lines of Jensen today,
basically with his announcement with Intel,
put every one of his partners, customers, suppliers,
and competitors on notice,
basically that until further notice that they call the shots.
So if you kind of think about what happened today, you have directly the ARM and NVIDIA
relationship, and it doesn't mean that's getting undone. But what it does mean is Jensen,
who had been pretty committed to just ARM for a long time had recently made an announcement that they were going to build
some IP for RISC-V, which is an open standard and a new way that some compute tiles are being built.
Now with x86, which is still one of the main ways an x86 compute CPU chip, which could be an AMD or
it could be an Intel, connecting to a NVIDIA GPU. Well, he obviously did do some king making today and picked Intel as the partner on x86.
And by taking their technology, the RTX technology or data center, the NVLink technology, what
they're basically saying is they're going to optimize a chip and a system, you know,
chiplet to basically make it work best when you use an Intel chip.
So shots were definitely fired at AMD.
AMD is, of course, kind of the odd company out here
because AMD's CPU business or Epic business
has been one of the most successful.
Lots of traders, I'm sure, and investors in this room
are probably looking, watching, or investing in AMD.
Well, AMD had done incredibly well competing with Intel and with ARM, a lot of cloud and hyperscale use of AMD Epic.
And of course, now you're going to have more NVIDIA optimized for Intel and for Arm, leaving AMD sort of on the outside.
And of course, AMD is building its rack scale, very focused on having its own networking, having its own compute, its own software.
But right now, you know, they've sort of built and
put themselves a bit on an island. And with a small market share, if you're an AMDA investor,
you may not want to necessarily hear that they're going to have some risk at some of their x86
business. And then, of course, I think there's lots of subplots here. TSMC, everyone's kind of
asking, well, Intel will likely win some of the packaging,
not the wafer business, but some of the packaging of these chips will go through Intel Foundry,
and that will be big for Intel's Foundry business. But I also think Jensen was subtly even telling
TSMC, hey, you've been the kingmaker, you've been able to negotiate out supply, you've had
ultimately monopolistic pricing power over all your chips.
We will work with Intel if we have to. And by the way, by doing more with Intel,
making this investment in Intel, Jensen kind of killed two birds in one stone. He sent those
signals out. Arm, hey, Arm, I'm not dedicated to you. AMD, we're going to make your life harder.
Intel, we're going to create dependents for you. TSMC, you know, we have alternative options.
And by the way, at the same time, he's befriending the administration because President Trump is going to be happy after the U.S. made an investment to see NVIDIA coming in and sort of doubling down, making that commitment.
And now about 17 percent of Intel is held by NVIDIA, U.S. government and SoftBank.
About 17% of Intel was held by NVIDIA, U.S. government, and SoftBank.
So big day, lots of implications here.
But overall, I think it's incredibly bullish for Intel.
It takes a lot of risk off the table for its investors, burns a lot of shorts.
For NVIDIA, I think it's a little more neutral,
but it definitely de-risks some of NVIDIA's over-reliance on certain partners and certain suppliers.
So I guess that question,
and of course if anybody else has something
to jump in with here,
I would love to hear additional thoughts.
But I mean, the question is,
obviously this is great for Intel, great for NVIDIA.
And is there a takeaway that with AMD,
because a lot of people for the longest
time, AMD kind of had this like, it's second best, it's not going to be able to compete with
NVIDIA. And then it had kind of this turnaround story, right? Where, okay, well, both can coexist
and we need both out there in the AI world. But now it seems like, is this a headwind? And then
I look at the chart today and it seems like somebody's saying, look, AMD is going to be fine.
Well, I think AMD will remain in any capacity, even just as there needs to be a second player in this GPU space.
So right now we've sized the market.
We have a TAM of about $583 billion for GPU XPU by the end of the decade, 2029.
And the problem is AMD has like 5% of it.
We think AMD could go to as high as maybe 10%, but they're not taking a palpable market share away from NVIDIA.
NVIDIA controls most of the share, and then on the custom stuff, Broadcom controls most of the share.
of the share. And then on the custom stuff, Broadcom controls most of the share. So I think
AMD has its kind of defined market, kind of minimum of about 5%, maximum of about 10%.
I think there's some optimists that think they'll get a bigger share. I think that's been somewhat
limited by their software developer ecosystem. It would be pretty hard. They'd have to make some
pretty considerable improvements in those areas. Not out of the question, but would
be a definite challenge. But I think AMD, again, has, if you just sort of look at its growth,
if you look at the potential for growth, because of the fact that even winning 5% to 10% of a
market that size would take their $5 to $7 billion estimates that they've had for their AI business,
and that could take it to $25 or $30 billion billion giving them a four or five x growth over the next handful of years i think investors could
be up could feel optimistic about that but they're not as far as we see there's no indications that
they're going to be taking considerable or meaningful market share but we do need a strong
second player even if it's just to protect the monopoly interests of nvidia
monopoly interests of NVIDIA. And then when it comes to Intel, is the turnaround story not,
I mean, not complete, but is this like solidifying, hey, Intel, I mean, whenever the government said
we're taking a 10% stake in it, you know, a lot of people said, okay, there's no way that they're
going to let Intel die. But now with this as well, from NVIDIA, is Intel going to be a centerpiece at some point again?
Is this, I mean, is this, are we back?
I guess would be the retail question everyone's asking.
Yeah, I mean, look, I think, as I was saying, I think it's de-risked.
I think having these three major investors and stakeholders, I think they still need a couple of bigger wins
in the Foundry, you know, wafer wins.
But I think this is indicative of an interest
in some investments coming in from big players
like Arm and NVIDIA, not just the government.
Partnering and packaging is good.
You know, it means it's going to solidify
that sort of CPU side of the AI design, of the fully
full-stack design.
And of course, Intel had a sound product business.
It had kind of capped out in share and sort of topped off.
But I mean, they still have like 70% share of both data center and PC.
So they have really big market share for a company that's
being treated like it was, you know, end of days. But it had been seeding share, it had been seeding
growth, it had been seeding margin, it had been over-investing in Foundry and not winning customers
and not succeeding to, you know, in terms of this Foundry ambition. But I think given the fact that
it was trading just over book value for quite a
long time you know it sort of moved away from that to a to a bit more of an appropriate value
where i think the investor could start to see the potential i could see a situation in which amd and
broadcom and qualcomm and a number of other companies will actually start to invest in
to do similar types of partnerships with intel um for AI, for Foundry, for networking, because
right now they're going to want to position themselves in the event that they're going
to need capacity in the Foundry, because it's the only option really at scale outside of
TSMC.
Samsung hasn't really been able to crack the code either.
Daniel, I also want to ask you, and then I'll get around to the panel here a little bit as well.
I want to ask you, you have Google that you've been talking about quite a bit.
The valuation is very interesting.
I mean, all-time highs, but the valuation is still very reasonable comparatively.
Obviously, Google is another one that people were, from a sentiment standpoint, saying, you know, AI is crushing it, the search is dead, all this stuff.
And obviously, there were several people pounding the table saying, no, Google is still Google.
What are your thoughts around Google?
I mean, I'm seeing them at all time highs.
I know you've pounded the table on them.
I'd love to get some of your updated thoughts around this.
I mean, I'm very bullish Google.
I was bullish when they were trading at under $2 trillion.
I'm bullish at under 2 trillion. I'm bullish at 3 trillion.
Just the components of their business make them worth more than how they're trading today.
And that sort of misnomer that they're missing AI was one of the most misinformed.
I think really had to be de-risked was the breakup.
That was the real de-risking that needed to happen, I think, to give investors some confidence
was that they weren't going gonna have to spin off Chrome
or the Android engine or anything like that
that was kind of core to their business.
But they have an unbelievable amount of data.
And if you ask questions of people like,
when you talk to Sam Altman,
they'll tell you how much of Google's data was responsible
in terms of open AI, YouTube and others
being able to build what it built.
So Google started a little slow, and there's certainly that aspect of consideration.
But they have an incredible stack.
And I'm talking about the data stack.
I'm talking about the software and applications.
And then I'm talking about the infrastructure. The TPU, which they co-developed with broadcom is the only what i
would call custom ai chip and infrastructure that really has fully stood on its own uh they're
training their most advanced gemini models with it um and so i think that google is going to be
in really great shape long term i also think the cloud businesses had great growth they were sort
of re-rated in the AI era in the cloud,
where they're definitely seen as part of the big three.
Of course, Oracle has sort of entered the fray
very quickly and unexpectedly.
So now it's the big four.
But no, we're very bullish Google,
or remain very bullish on Google.
I think that company had more AI chops
than just about any other company on the planet,
not named NVIDIA, heading into this AI era. Yeah, it makes perfect sense. And we talk about this AI era.
I mean, Lisa Su was telling us, I saw you posted this the other day,
Lux Algo was posting it as well, 10-year cycle, and it's still very early. I mean, and it seems like, you know, by
many, we got going in this and people were kind of like figuring out, okay, well, who's going to
be the winners? What do we need? And then now it just seems like there's so many pieces we still
need. And you have people like Lisa Su telling us this is the 10-year cycle. Are you kind of in
line with that? Do you think, hey, we're going to see this for 10 more years? So with all, you know, maybe not all the spending, but all the spending build out and
everything, do you see it being that long? Or is Lisa Su speaking more from a, not a biased
perspective, but you know what I mean, more from an industry perspective from her company's
perspective? No, I think, you know, I've been around the world this year. I was in Davos. I went to Milken conference.
I met with capital allocators.
There was an overwhelming amount of demand to invest in AI projects versus the actual capacity.
So you'll constantly hear we're capacity constrained.
You hear the things, my GPUs are melting.
We literally cannot build out capacity fast enough.
Now, that's the question of
when does capacity heat hit peak but we're really only in the very earliest innings in terms of
utilizing ai in the infrastructures uh you know in the consumer use cases you know we're mostly
using these these llms and models but we're still pretty early and the adoption rate is still
relatively low out of the entire population.
In the enterprise, we're not even, you know, even a percent in to utilization.
So when you start thinking about like agentic workflows, where you're going to have trillions of concurrent tokens being created, you know, every enterprise, every person is going to
have five, 10, 15, 20 agents that are going to be working.
And it's 24 by seven, 365, just constantly doing things.
We're going to have so much demand,
so much requirement of capacity that we're going to be limited by, you know, energy. So that's why
you're seeing a lot of these plays like, you know, iron and cypher, nebius, core weave are so big and
so exciting. That's why the Oracle deal was so large. And then of course uh you know we have to actually build the energy grid to support that
you know this is the one place where china actually is ahead of us is it has it's built
energy infrastructure faster despite the fact that it can't actually support the technology
infrastructure without the support of you know us technology but um i think that, you know, the, is it 10 years? I mean, I actually think it's like
three decades. Now, again, is it a zero boom and bust? No, but I do think the traditional
semiconductor boom-bust cycle has been somewhat obfuscated because of AI. Things like memory
that had really significant boom-bust cycles will be unlikely to have them because of the
high bandwidth memory requirements of these
AI systems. I think the training capacity will start to see some leveling out. We see the CAGR
of overall GPUs going to about 20%, low 20% by the end of the decade. But this is 20% of a really
large number. It's like 400 something billion dollars by 2029. We see the custom stuff growing a little bit faster.
But again, these are laws of large numbers. And that build out will continue because the ability
to support all these applications, all these tokens for all these agents is going to be
continuously exponential. So I love the energy play. I love anything that's the networking to
be able to connect all of this technology together. And then, of course, the actual compute power itself.
It seems endless and boundless, but, you know, the Microsoft and EBIUS deal,
the announcements in the UK, the sovereign clouds everywhere in the world,
the meta and its, you know, multi-gigawatt capacity.
There just doesn't seem to be any indication that this is going to slow down anytime soon.
Yeah, that makes perfect sense. I want to bring some others into the conversation here for sure.
Daniel, if you're able to hang out, would love to bring it back to you or have you jump in at
any point. I'll be here for a little bit. Awesome. Perfect. Perfect. Wolfie, I want to bring you in
next and then I'll continue around a little bit here. But the AI trade, I know you've been
pretty bullish on Intel at different points. You've also
talked recently about some of those things that Daniel was mentioning there on the build-out stuff
and wanted to hear your take around anything that you caught Daniel saying there or anything else
that's on your mind around that AI trade and obviously the big Nvidia Intel news today.
And he dropped off stage as soon as I threw that question to him.
Wolfie, did we get you back on stage?
Yeah, can you hear me?
Yeah, I got you now.
I didn't know if you heard the question or the setup there.
I heard the first half.
Intel, then here the rest.
For whatever reason, it rugged when I clicked accept.
Yeah, perfect.
So I was asking about Intel.
I know you've talked about that one quite a bit.
Obviously, the big news there with NVIDIA today.
Also, kind of what Daniel was hitting at there
is something that you've hit at as well
as far as kind of like the build-out of the AI.
Obviously, the energy is a big piece,
but you've talked some about the glass
and the fiber optics
and the different pieces
that have been built out there.
I was just curious, anything that stuck out,
like Daniel was saying, as far as,
hey, this could be a 10-year cycle, like Lisa Su said,
and it doesn't seem like it's slowing down anytime soon.
But curious your thoughts around the Intel news
and the AI trade in general.
Yeah, so I think I brought it,
first time I brought it on this space was July like 12th. I was talking
about Intel just from a national security standpoint. It's the only US based foundry
that's in the US that could that could kind of meet some of the capacity stuff to try to do.
And it's on the low end chip side where China kind of has a foothold. Obviously, if you took that approach
or if you like listen to some of the stuff I've said,
and I guess Daniel just touched on most of it,
but like this headline was not really a surprise.
I remember like it popped, what did it pop to like 25 or 27?
And people thought like, oh, there's the move.
And I remember coming on and saying, that's not the move.
Now there's like a gateway entry and it doesn't cost much for some of these companies to kind of just like pay the tide to, you know, do business or whatever.
And then the other thing is like, if I told you like seven years ago that this company would be merged or be bought by another competitor.
People would have said something about like antitrust issues or something.
But now you're at a point where it's like so depreciated that it's like,
I don't know if the unit economics makes what they will look like for some companies,
but in general, it's not bad.
So if you just kind of like apply similar logics to that,
obviously we've covered like the MP stuff, right?
So MP, the government's got a stake in it and some of these rare earth metals, they've got a stake in it.
um you know there's there's ideas that the u.s government is going to help offset some of these
um you know rare earth elements that people that some of these companies would buy
for ev production or for or you know battery production or for whatever like you can kind
of apply the same similar type of logic uh universally um you guys you guys touched on
like iron and all those things like
you know i've got some exposure but that's not really like the play that i have i do like
some of these you know boring energy names um so you know etr i mentioned there's a lot of like
a lot of data center movement to uh east te to like Louisiana and Alabama and places like that.
There's a lot of like Amazon foothold that's moving there and other companies like it that
are moving there. So I do like some of these boring concepts. I know Monitive's pushback
saying like versus historical evaluations, they're a little bit rich especially on the utility side i don't disagree
but if if there's going to be you know just kind of like a pull forward there could be an instance
where some of these valuations remain stretched for a little while longer than than um than
expected and then over time that could be true the one the one thing that you know kind of makes me
you know tap the brakes a little bit i
do agree like yeah 10 year cycle all of that stuff 100 don't disagree but i will say that there and
i don't know where we are so this is not like a call or anything like that but if you go back to
when the internet became the internet you had basically like a 10 to 12 year window where, you know, the internet
became ubiquitous, but the stocks for the internet didn't necessarily do so outside of like a handful,
right? So if you just like look at Microsoft, for example, there's like a 10 to 15 year
window where the stock just kind of went sideways. If you look at some other names,
there's similar action. But if you apply that same vein, right, I've talked about this on this space before, after the Oracle, Oracle was like a big winner for
me, Avgo was a big winner for me. And recently, I scaled back a lot of that size. Then like the
rewiring of America, for lack of a better word, should kind of fall in line with that, right? So
if like we need, you know, more compute, we need faster access to
that compute, we need to lay more more wires, we need more copper, we need more wiring, we need more,
you know, infrastructure for it. And I think that there's, I've said it before on a couple of your
spaces, but I think that that's kind of like how I'm thinking. So if you just take a look at
something like Corning, for example, GLW, boring name, nobody really if you just take a look at something like uh corning for example glw
boring name nobody really talks about but look at that chart uh pretty much like 25 year highs
on that name uh cisco same kind of thing 25 year highs um there's there's recent ipo wi-fi w y
f i you know really really solid numbers so i think like that for me, that's kind of like how I'm viewing it.
I'm not necessarily looking for the chip expansion side,
you know, universally.
There are pockets where I am looking for it.
So for example, the previous speaker mentioned Qualcomm.
Qualcomm is the,
Qualcomm Snapdragon is like one of the main chips
that gets used in the Meta Ray-Ban glasses.
So if, you know, that, put that failure of a presentation aside where the demo didn't really work out the way they wanted to,
if, you know, that continues to be the case and people pick up on buying these glasses and buying these wearables,
you know, that is a nice little tailwind for that company.
And Qualcomm also like kind of presents a similar opportunity uh to i don't want to say
intel but like similar opportunity where like you know you the you can point you can point companies
towards you know a very specific place um and then it could possibly work the other thing about
qualcomm is just like look at it from a chart perspective it's a really nice setup on a chart
chart basis it's been basing out for quite a while moving averages all kind of consolidated same place
below um so it's a nice little setup so i do i do think that there's like a secular tailwind here
with the ai still because like as you said there's you know compute begets more compute
but i but i'm not necessarily looking to play it at this juncture with chips
and the data center play. The way I'm looking is exactly what you just touched on, which is the
energy way to play it, the fiber optic way to play it, the cable, the copper, the guts basically
or the rails of the system. So that's kind of like the main point here for me.
The second thing, if I just like layer it,
and he mentioned like tokens, right?
So like all this stuff you have to pay,
like you pay for it using tokens.
But like if I could just kind of derivative,
if I could just like go off of a derivative there,
the tokenization aspect as well, just like the putting more things online, more contracts, more utilities, more payment systems, more all that just like tokenizing it, which is like what kind of Robinhood is starting to do.
all of these like uh all of these like coin based stocks will perform um or coin based vehicles will
perform and i i think if i were to just kind of like categorize mania like if we got a mania i
feel like those would kind of be the the the flashpoint for said mania so like that's kind of like what i want to
pay attention to um you know but we're i don't know where we are along the lines there um but
if i'm just talking about like overall you know convo that you guys just had boring you know the
boring uh you know energy names that have been consolidating for 18 to 24 months that are breaking
out of downtrends mentioned several of them here some of these oil names that like we just kind of like put oil in
the rear view but there's like a lot of there's a lot of tailwinds from from what we just talked
about but there's also like possible shocks that could come as more people as more places start to you know view the potential for on like taking care of their own
house right so if there's more disruptions to things globally then there might be shocks along
the way for from an energy perspective if we do end up running things hot which appears from a
macro perspective that we're kind of trying to go down the run it hot side of things then you know those are typically inflationary positions
and typically inflationary hedges that do perform so like yeah across the board that's fine if i
could just you know outside of that um you know talk my book a little bit take a look i mean the
last time i was on your space i was talking about about some of these MSTR, Coinbase, all these things look good.
And if you just take a look at them now, they've really broken out on a short term basis.
Look for a little bit of consolidation and then, you know, look for a possible follow through.
The other another name that I mentioned that he just spoke to.
And, you know, this is not unique to me.
Like pretty much everybody across the board's had it. Neius again look at that prior all-time high that's been
functioning as support for the last you know week and a half whenever whatever it was that it broke
out to you know this all-time high uh looks really good for for follow-through any breakout above the
the new benchmark that it's set probably gets chased uh
reddit is another name if you just put ancillary play to this ai theme if you if you read some of
these reports about where some of these uh llms are getting their information a lot of them are
getting their information from reddit uh another another couple of favorites that nobody really talks about for these LLM models are Yelp and TripAdvisor.
It's not anything that I'm in, but just something to put out there just to pay attention to.
A lot of these LLMs are sourcing information from these places where people are having these conversations so they can make it more human. Another thing that another one that's been beaten up because it's kind of
gotten lost in, you know, no one's going to need to learn how to translate if my headphones could
translate. And I just recently read a report on was Duolingo. So Duolingo, people view it as,
you know, learn the language. But, you know you know, there's, there's an argument to be made that Duolingo is actually, uh, could be a training
ground, a dojo, if you will, for LLMs when it comes to native speaking. I don't know where they,
where management is, where they are on the front, but though it's like, that's like another
derivative to think of. Um, and then, you know, the, the last, last the the last couple that i'll throw out there last one
i'll throw out there is like uh it's not anything to do with the ai thing but just this rare earth
thing of the government investments uh take a look at uh mp mp has been consolidating at the
prior highs just recently broke out of a downtrend and today broke out of a downtrend. I think today it broke out of that downtrend. Looks ripe for possible continuation to the upside. I don't think that these are one-offs.
Also, take a look at things like copper, copper names that are domestic, especially some of these
steel names as well, iron ore, things like that, especially on the domestic side right so there's
two ways to play it one is you know your canadian counterparts that could benefit if there's like a
tariff a tariff thing uh that's one way to play it and then the other one the other way to play
it is like you know any of the domestic ones that have specialties uh or special metals that are very unique, you know, or alloys or elements that are very unique to some of the things that we need.
Think like aircraft manufacturing, think like missile defense systems, etc.
Like those metal companies that people don't really think about or that not people don't, like just in general, you don't see it in the lexicon on on
fin twit those might be the next you know target for you know government investment and where you
wake up and you're like oh shit like x blank stock is up 40 because government invested
y dollars right so that's that's kind of like the the high level stuff there's any other specific
questions if you want me to give you specifics on my day, I'm happy to.
So I'll stop it there for now.
Yeah, a lot of good pieces there, Wolfie.
I appreciate those thoughts.
We'll definitely come back around to you here shortly
because there's some things that I want to follow up on.
I want to make sure we get to everyone.
You also, you mentioned the meta thing.
I'm sure we'll hit a conversation on that
at some point on this show as well.
Mish, I want to bring you into the conversation
and see if you had any thoughts or anything mentioned so far
or obviously anything new to drop in the conversation today.
Great to have you back on the show.
How you doing?
Well, yeah, I mean, obviously, who can deny the AI revolution?
You mentioned Google before, and I will tell you,
without giving away too much,
the advancement that they're doing on completely revolutionizing how cinema is made for both film
and TV and for animation, it's constantly every day updating. And there are a bunch of other
little companies as well that are doing things.
But you know, at some point, it seems like Google's going to just scoop them all up and become the
premier place to go for that type of craft. So I just wanted to mention that. So it's hard to be
bearish in that stock. Of course, risk is always a factor. At what point do you get in when you're
getting in at all time highs? Some people love that and think the momentum is just going to continue.
I always tend to be more of a searching for things that are undervalued.
So that's all I really want to say about AI, because you have so many fabulous people who
who know so much about it.
But there was another really big story outside of Intel and NVIDIA.
And those of you who know me, can anyone guess what that story might be that intrigues me?
Well, I'll tell you.
So you don't have to guess here, obviously, because you can't speak to me.
And that would be Novo Nordisk.
All right.
So, you know, I've been like huge into the mega trend that we are seeing emerge in some ways more powerful than AI. And that
is the impact of the diet drugs and the accessibility. Novo Nordisk had two big news
items yesterday. One is the working on the pill, which of course would not only be a lot more
pleasant than doing injections, but probably a whole lot cheaper. And so that gave
a boost to that stock today. And then there was another story about how they've discovered that
there's been a 23% reduction in heart disease on people who are taking Wigovi or GLP-1. So
this to me affects people in a very different way than AI, but it is so profound.
And the domino effect of that
is what I'm looking at constantly.
So what stocks, what companies are going to prosper
as a result of a new thinner generation
that can stay thinner?
And that's where you got to look at altars,
near all-time highs. Elf has made a spectacular move up. generation that can stay thinner. And that's where, you know, you got to look at altars near
all time highs. Elf has made a spectacular move up. Stocks that were left for dead, like new skin,
has really rallied. Stitch Fix also has come out of the doldrums. You know, and then you're talking
about some other type of situations, you know, looking at a stock like Etsy, which has done very well. You know, you want to
look Match and Bumble. People thought the dating apps would never come back. Well, meanwhile,
Bumble's having a really good day, up nearly 4%. And Match.com is consolidating near its recent
highs. We can look, of course, at Eli Lilly. That's another one. Garmin. I mean, on and on and on. So basically what you really want to focus on as far as I'm concerned outside of the
AI, and I agree, by the way, I'm so into the infrastructure of AI.
I'm really into the energy aspect and the raw materials aspect.
I've also been keen on learning as much as I can about tokenization.
I mean, there's so much to learn in the new digital economy, but good old people, just keep your eye there because as it gets more
affordable and more mainstream and it's already growing, just ask somebody, you know, how is your
shopping and consuming habits change? You've seen McDonald's and General Mills and all these other areas fall
because people are making healthier choices. So I just want to kind of mention that that's pretty
much as exciting to me as the revolution of AI. I love those thoughts. Mish, I want to ask you,
HIMSS, where does HIMSS fit into this with the Nova Nordisk thing?
It seems like the market can't even figure it out because every other day HIMSS is up 10%, down 7%, up 4%, down 10%. And today, up almost 11%.
Does HIMSS hit your radar much or are you looking at it?
Does it fit in or is it like nobody really knows right now where that's going to settle?
Well, HIMSS definitely fits in. I mean, from, you know, just from a consumer instinct standpoint, you know that
HIMSS is going very far in terms of advertisement. Oh, by the way, I had done a story on Novo Nordisk
earlier in the week, speaking of advertisement. They've already spent over a quarter of a million
dollars this year in advertisement. And so I had made the joke, did Novo Nordisk win an Emmy?
Well, you could kind of say the same thing about HIMSS, right?
Because you see so much advertisement.
I would say that it is volatile.
If we're going to get any kind of follow through in terms of today's move, it has to happen
like tomorrow, if you know what I mean. This one more
test of major moving averages at the 50-day and the 10-day, now it's clearing that July range that
I like to watch. It's trading over that. If we can stay over this 55, 56 level, I don't see any
reason why this thing can't fly to 70, and that's the key. This, like so many of the other hot
stocks that you see mentioned all the time on X, moves because it gets a lot of attention.
So, you know, I would play this almost like a commodity, but I would say I would wait,
I've been in it and out of it and in it and out of it, as opposed to something where I buy and
just kind of hold like a Novo I got into earlier the week before the news, as I felt like the
bottom was in. This one, I would say, let it get through 56. If it does, get in, get out right away
if you're wrong, because you don't want to sit through a 10% decline like you just mentioned.
And then start looking at 65.70 to lighten up and keep a core and keep trailing it like that.
core and keep trailing it like that. That's how you have to play volatility.
That's how you have to play volatility.
I love those thoughts, Mish. Anything else that's on? I saw you speaking a little bit about Rivian.
I just want to see if Rivian is something that you wanted to touch on or anything else that's
on your radar before I move on to the next person. But Rivian, that one seems kind of like a hymns
where it looks like it wants to go and it goes back down.
That just was on my brain when you were mentioning that.
You know, I have been all over this stock now for like two years.
I always joke and say the company should send me a Rivian because I talk about this stock so much.
I mean, there's things about it that can make you pull your hair out.
Like there was just this giant recall and that sent the stock into the skids.
But they also opened up, I think, the plant in Georgia and now they're starting production there.
It's a hot car. It is sort of number two to Tesla in a way, obviously not stock price wise,
but it is, you know, a lot of people have turned their attentions from Teslas to Rivians. I see more and more and more on the road.
Like every day, I see more.
And it's also working on auto driving, cheaper models.
They have some good launches for 2026.
So, you know, anything could drop this thing.
But if you just want to look at it in terms of pure price, I'm hoping for a close this
week over $14.50. That would be tomorrow. I'd like to see it close over $14.50. Then I think you
can really reduce your risk to under $13.50 so that you don't get killed. And possibly let's
ride it to $17, which is where it's been not too far ago, and see what happens from there. Do I
think the future of this company longer term is really good if you wanted to just
kind of buy it and put it away if you're that sort of investor?
Yeah, I don't think that's such a bad thing at all.
By the way, plug power.
That was another one I mentioned yesterday.
I read this whole article about hydrogen as a form of energy, speaking of all energy on
deck.
And this thing flew in the last
two days. It was up 17% yesterday. It's up another 5% a day. And this, I mean, who cares about a
stock trading at $2? But this stock was trading at $70 in 2021. So, you know, you just never know.
Didn't go bankrupt. So it's still there. So I still like that EV,
all energy on tops of traditional energy. I mean, natural gas, of course, is another one that,
you know, could make you cry at night. But it has kind of made a bottom, I think, if it doesn't take
out the late August low. So that's another thing to keep an eye on because that is while everybody's in love with nuclear and even hydrogen energy and alternative and solar obviously has done very well for solar had a nice day.
Solar edges had a nice day.
I think you also have to look at what we have available right now to fuel this AI revolution.
And that would be natural gas.
So I'm also keeping an eye on that as well.
The old widow maker over there. I appreciate those thoughts. Like always, feel free to jump back in,
just like Wolfie's doing right here, throwing up a hand. Wolfie, let's go over to you,
and then we'll bring in some of the other panelists here. So, first she said she was talking about basically the re-revolution of dating.
The derivative of that is the potential that people are going to start having kids again.
You can couple that idea with the Taylor Swift baby bump revolution that's probably going to come, or the marriage revolution.
So, take a look at like Signet, Carter's and
Children's Place. Well, I think Children's Place is not having a good day today, but
those types of names have been performing pretty well the last
couple of weeks, months, whatever. I think we talked about Signet specifically the day
that we got the headline. So they in particular were
down because of the inventory they had of real diamonds
as more and more people shifted to lab-grown diamonds.
But now they have basically, you know, across the board from low-end to high-end,
from lab to real, like they've got it all.
So really awesome setup.
It's been consolidating for, you know, like four years between 111 and like 50 right and so now it's pressing
back up towards 111 level you didn't chase it unless you got like a real breakup but this is
just a name to put on on there um you know re hymns hymns is like one of my bigger positions still
um been in it since single digits i don't i don't really see a reason to
sell until this whole story is like confirmed over she she touched on a level pretty precisely
this like 57 level 58 uh probably sends it back towards the earnings sell-off which is like 62 to
63 but you know more importantly they they recently had an acquisition to acquire customers in Europe instead of trying to acquire the customers organically, which is a positive if you look at it from, you know, not wanting to go in and do the brick and mortar work or like the labor work, labor intensive work, pretty positive so i i don't think it's one of those things gonna like go away unless there's
a real judgment that comes out and says hey you're not allowed to do whatever it is that they don't
want them to do um the second thing is there's like a there's like the they they recently issued
um this potential for the trt replacement so they they might have another lever that they pull.
And then if people start to opt into these oral intakes
that are 70 to 80% as effective as the shot,
because it doesn't matter if it's not 100%.
If you can give you 80% of the result,
but you don't have to jab yourself,
I think the market actually grows.
And HIMSS has, I guess, a unique thing where they couple the oral intakes with vitamins and some other stuff.
Whether or not they view that as legal or not misleading, which is what the headline was that actually took the stock down recently.
I don't know, but until it's banned, that would be
another tailwind for that stock. And then lastly, Rivian, another position that's pretty big for me.
I think she hit on spot on. The other point that I'd mentioned about Rivian is Amazon owns 16%,
and I mentioned it earlier, government's to uh give tariff offsets for
domestic productions of ev batteries and battery storage solutions uh to kind of offset some of
these rare earth metals uh rare earth tariffs that they're putting in place rivian's a domestic
company located in america um you know there was a there was a they just broke ground in Georgia, as she said.
I don't think that they also they also had a $7,500 tax EV tax credit extended through the end of the month.
If you went back and look last week, I think it was like two days ago when it ended.
They were offering an additional additional subsidy to leases and loans if people were signing direct.
So I think there was like a 20% discount that people could get by stacking the loans up to 20%.
Wouldn't be shocked if there was like a sales bump on the back of that, which is their expectations are low,
especially because people are priming for this R2 release, which is supposed to trade $45,000.
The idea here isn't that it's going to like actually compete with Tesla and take over
that. The idea is if they can grab any kind of market share that's meaningful for them, right?
So it should be like 3% would really kind of be a very aggressive move in stock, especially
given like, you know, how much of the, how much of the floats actually accounted for. So just
want to kind of touch on that
that was awesome wolf thank you thank you
uh daniel go ahead jump in and then we'll uh continue around yeah i just want to say because i do have to split and i i apologize to any of the speakers waiting you guys have been so patient
and uh it's been great to listen and learn so much from so many of you.
I do want to say, because you hit me on a lot of the tech stuff, but I also, because I advise about 450 large tech companies, I can't trade at a lot of them. So a lot of my knowledge doesn't get to be taken advantage of for that purpose.
But I do have my book.
I did want to say a couple of great things that have happened.
And I wanted to comment a little bit on the GLP conversation that went on too.
So first of all, I don't know if anyone else here is a team so far.
I've been in since IPOE.
We broke all time highs, entered price discovery today.
I don't know how it'll end.
It was selling a little bit into the last half hour, I noticed.
But for those that have been riding that one with me since the 2021 SPACing. Congratulations. That's pretty freaking
awesome. On the GLP stuff, I mean, I'm going to pound the table one more time and say Viking,
their data was very good. Now, again, there was a little bit of the adverse reactions were a bit
high, but the placebo adverse reactions
were like 20%.
The average street price for that name, BKTX, $100.
They have the most potent pill for weight loss
out of all the different ones being tested.
It did more in 13 weeks than the Eli Lilly one did in 72,
and it outperformed the Innova one as well.
I still think they're gonna end up getting acquired at some point and
it's going to be at a pretty happy premium.
It's trading in the 20s.
There's some incredible IV on these things.
If you'd like to play options, you could do really well there too.
It might be dead money for a while if you buy common because it's probably
waiting for a deal or for an FDA approval, but very, very good numbers there.
And on the him side, I am a peptide user.
I am a big believer in personalized medicine in the future.
I do think HIMSS is going to revolutionize a very, very, an industry that very much needs it.
And I love the angle right now because growth is hot, but I think healthcare has the ability
to sort of withstand
what could happen when you get a drawdown. Any of you that were through 2022, I had growth names
that drew down 80%. It's easy in 2025 after this run to forget what that feels like. It's painful.
So I do, you know, personally, I'm sort of doing some repositioning and some things to make sure
that yes, I'm still super long on HIMSS, on Robinhood, on SoFi, and a number of other names that have been great growth names.
But I do think there's some repositioning.
I actually took a pretty large position in Pfizer this week.
Pfizer's got a 7% yield.
It was trading at like a dollar over book value.
They're treating the stock like it's dead.
like it's dead.
I think Pfizer could be a great trade
if people are kind of looking at what's something good
to own that could perform if growth gets drawn down
here in the near future.
So that's another thing that I've been thinking a lot about.
And in terms of overall too,
I've also taken a very large position in Oscar Health.
It started as a bit of a meme for me,
but I did a lot of research on it,
came to realize it's a really great name um and so i actually exited a large draft kings position
that i rode from its uh spack era to about 45 and i reinvested all of it over there and then
the last thing is these energy names that everyone talks about like cypher and Iron. Really, really incredible volatility plays there. So I was
trading well out of the money puts this week, like 15, 10 put spreads on Iron and getting really
great premiums. I think it might be a little bit, you might be chasing a little bit to buy here. I
think there will be a pullback, but I think you can do really well on some of this implied
volatility. So just for anyone out there, kind there, that's a little bit more my book.
So before it was sort of my business.
If anyone's kind of interested in what else I'm doing, I try to share a little bit of that on X,
but there's usually so much AI stuff that it kind of just sprinkles in between all the AI coverage.
Hey, Daniel, great stuff.
stuff real quick uh same kind of concept left for dead type of thing uh moderna last week had that
Real quick, same kind of concept, left for dead type of thing.
headline where the government was going to start blaming some of some stuff on the vaccines stock
sold off but it held this support level that has basically been grinding against uh since april so
it's like kind of like tandem uh for pfizer higher lows higher highs still kind of grinding riding this trend that
started back in april so like you know i would imagine if one were to move the other one would
probably move with it i loved the seven percent dividend like i said it almost would cover it
was about a dollar on pfizer downside one of the things a lot of people don't remember though, but they're largely indemnified because of operation warp speed of any,
you know, any injuries related to the COVID vaccines.
So that was something I was studying because I, you know, there's,
I do have genuine concerns about these companies,
but they have really solid businesses. I think they're an acquisition away.
You know, I actually think
Pfizer could be the one to acquire Vikings. That's a bit of another tangential region I'm playing,
but I think Pfizer is going to need something in the GLP category right now, just knowing how big
of a market that is. But my one read right now is just like, look, these are amazing times.
I'm an advisor to IMQ. I've got a good position there.
I'm watching the stock go from 40 to almost $70 in a week.
And that's a great feeling.
But there's a lot of reason when this all starts happening at one time to sort of say,
look, do you have at least a few good defensive positions?
Because with these rate cuts, you got that kind of an instant fall.
And now you're back.
I'm seeing corrections of 5%.
There hasn't been a single one since April.
There's been a few in the 3%.
I do think in order for us to really, over a long time,
achieve new highs that are going to be sustainable
and really be high highs,
I do think we're going to need to pull back
somewhere along the way.
And of course, I always hope
that I have a little bit of dry powder
and that everyone out there
has a little bit of dry powder to act because these great companies, it's even greater if you could buy them on sale.
Yeah, some great thoughts, Daniel.
Appreciate you joining us today.
Definitely follow all these speakers up here.
Give Daniel a follow.
Mish was here a little bit earlier.
And then, of course, all these great speakers up here on the panel a follow. Mish was here a little bit earlier, and then of course all these great speakers up here
on the panel today. Daniel,
appreciate you joining us.
Have a great day, everyone. Bye-bye.
Yes, sir. Take care.
Stock Geek,
I want to give you a shot to jump in here
on the conversation and see if
anything that we talked about stuck out to you, any
comments that you wanted to throw into the mix.
Yeah, thanks.
Thanks for having me on again.
Yeah, Daniel's comments were definitely near and dear to my heart
because I've been trying to take profits rapidly this week.
It definitely feels like we're getting into more of a euphoric season here.
And so, you know, memories of 2021 definitely top of mind for me.
It's like when everybody else starts losing their head,
it's time to start, you know, raising a little capital, taking profits. of 2021 definitely top of mind for me. It's like when everybody else starts losing their head,
it's time to start raising a little capital, taking profits. Plus, man, it's been crazy this week. I don't know. It just feels like in the last 10 days, I've had a bunch of names just
really popping off. Grab had some calls in that one. That one's breaking out. We've had Lyft,
shout out Stock Talk. Him and I talked a lot about that one a couple of weeks ago.
Even Micron, which has been a big position of mine since the April sell-off.
The Chinese stocks, which I mentioned last week as well.
So I had calls and call spread than Alibaba.
And that's the second kind of massive move I caught on Baba this year.
So that's been a big profit generator.
I still think there's actually juice to squeeze in the China trade. I just think we're getting a pullback today and I
think it's pretty necessary. So I think you let some of these names cool off a bit. And then I
think they have a lot further to run on a multi-year basis potentially as the narrative
and the sentiment is shifting around China tech, not only among North American investors, but also
across Asia. And so that's pretty evident too, just by the performance of the Hong Kong market
this year and the Shanghai market. So yeah, and I think there's more to come with the sentiment
shifting and valuation is still pretty reasonable on some of that stuff. And then what else? Yeah,
some of that stuff. And then what else? Yeah. Clean Spark. I mentioned that one Tuesday of last
week. That was one of my kind of data center plays after a couple of those big deals were announced.
That one was a lagging Bitcoin miner that had already signaled that they were shifting towards
the data center play right as these data center deals were being announced. So they haven't even
actually announced a big data center deal yet. Stock probably, again, needs a pullback short run, but had some calls on
that one from the nines and was kind of taking profits on those today up 300% plus on some of
those. So that narrative remains intact until it doesn't., that's one where I think one among a handful of
them that I think could have big deals announced by the end of the year, just because when you look
at, you know, how hot that data center theme is, one of the problems and one of the reasons why
you're seeing these big contracts signed is that there's about an 18 month lag on getting
transformers right now. So the lead time on transformers is really long.
So a lot of the hyperscalers are prioritizing projects where there's already, you know,
power infrastructure on the ground. And so that's why these, these miners are even worth a look for
the hyperscalers. So, you know, they're obviously also building new build facilities, Stargate out
in Abilene and, you know, Microsoft's got also building new build facilities, Stargate out in Abilene.
And, you know, Microsoft's got a facility they were talking about today out in Wisconsin.
And then you've got Colossus out in Mississippi slash whatever state is adjacent there.
I forget. But what is it? Missouri or whatever.
But the the yeah, I mean, so there are new builds happening, but those new builds take a while to get off the ground.
And in the meantime, they're still compute constrained. So it's like anybody who has power infrastructure that can serve, you know, the data center needs becomes a target. So there's still probably some pops to come in some of those miners that are shifting their capacity there for data centers.
there for data centers. I guess my concern with all of this, not just like AI data centers,
that was like, you know, stuff like Oclo, you know, up another, what, 10, 15% at one point today.
You know, it's starting to get pretty frothy out there. It's like stuff's getting pretty extended.
So, you know, that's again why I'm trying to take profits on stuff and raise some capital while at
the same time still trying to participate in the bull market while we've got it.
But you got to have your eye, I think, on that exit door.
Because if you look back at what happened in the dot-com bust, there were stocks that were down more than 50% in a matter of three weeks when it all came crashing down in 2000. So that is a risk, obviously, that if you
do get a rapid sentiment change, or there can be one thing that happens, right? We saw that with
DeepSeek in January, that just sort of ignites the fear or cools off sentiment. And you can have some
of these stocks, I think could be down 30 to 40%, at least in a matter of two to three weeks.
stocks I think could be down 30 to 40% at least in a matter of two to three weeks.
So you have to be mentally prepared for that to happen.
So that's just something I'm thinking about this week.
Even though things look great, portfolio looks great, you definitely have to be mindful of
that potential risk as everyone else starts to get euphoric.
Appreciate those thoughts, Stock Geek. Thanks for joining the show. to get euphoric.
Appreciate those thoughts, Stock Geek.
Thanks for joining the show.
Great to have you on here.
And some really interesting stuff.
You did mention Lyft, of course, and Stock Talk.
You mentioned some of these big names that are moving.
And Stock Talk, I want to go ahead and bring you in because I know a couple names that you've talked about on the show
were absolutely flying today.
Again, Stock Talk has a hot hand.
I'm not saying he doesn't always have a hot hand,
but right now it seems like Stock Talk's got that hot hand,
just shoot or shoot.
Stock Talk, I want to give it over to you
and let you chime in on some of this stuff here.
Yeah, I honestly thought coming into this year
there was going to be a modest
year just off expectations you know last year was one of my best years ever and i know it was a good
year for a lot of people we're in a bull market um but my goal is is outperformance with what i do
right and it's part of why i'm so transparent you know know, in our community, I share every stock I have.
I share the weightings of those stocks relative to the portfolio.
I tell people why I buy it, when I'm selling it, why I'm selling it.
You know, a lot of Twitter is just people posting ideas and then celebrating.
That's like 90% of Twitter, right?
And I think it's cool.
Idea sharing is great, right? And I think it's cool. Idea sharing is great, right? But I frankly don't
respect most of it because it's not hard to find a nice chart or find a stock that you think is
going to go up and then post it. And then when it goes up, you're like, look, it went up.
Like in my community, that's not what we do. I don't present ideas. I buy stuff. I tell you
what I'm buying. I tell you why I'm buying it. And when I'm out, I'm out. You know, I don't,
I don't say, oh, you know, uh, this stock that I bought seven months ago and then sold
for a 20% gain. I don't go celebrate that when it's up 150%. But 90% of Twitter does that.
Okay, so 90% Twitter is bullshit. And my goal with my page is to not be bullshit.
To show you guys my performance, you know, the stocks I'm picking, what weighting they are,
why I'm picking them, when I'm no longer in them,
why I'm no longer in them. That's all that matters. Ideas don't pay. Execution pays.
It's easy to have a good idea. I know 14-year-old kids that can pick a stock that goes up.
There's people that know nothing about the market that can pick a stock that goes up.
There's people that liked eating at Chipotle and bought that stock, whatever, six years ago and
made a killing, right? It is not a demonstration of skill to pick a stock that goes up. It is a
demonstration of skill to dramatically outperform the market while stock picking. That is a demonstration of skill. And your execution on those positions,
how you size them, how you manage them, that is what counts. That is what separates somebody who
posts a 20% return in a year from somebody who posts a 50%, who posts a 70%, who posts 100%,
150. Every one of those barometers is separated by execution skill, in my opinion.
And that execution skill isn't just, what do I sell?
What do I buy?
Where do I dip at?
It's also which stocks you pick.
It's also, hey, I'm not just picking stocks based on the charts.
I'm picking stocks on a confluence of factors.
And so I rant about this stuff to you guys all the time.
But on weeks like
this is where it really pays. You know, my portfolio had a historic week. This is the biggest dollar
gain in one week for my portfolio ever. On a percentage basis, I've had higher weeks, but on
dollar basis, never, right? Like this was frankly, like just this week was a life-changing week.
I hit a 200% year-to-date return. And by the way, I share my performance regularly.
This year in April, guys, when my portfolio was down 3% on the year, I posted the screenshot.
I don't only post it when my portfolio is up.
It just happens to be up a lot now.
So you can go back to April and see.
And this is for the people out there who say you only talk about your winners, Stock Talk.
When you're sharing your performance, the losers are implicit in the performance
you know i'm not i'm not somebody who says look at my idea it did good look at this idea it did
good i'm somebody who says here are all my ideas this is what the overall portfolio did as a
consequence of those ideas yes stock talk just on that dude like how many people hold on i'm kind of i want
to let me just let me just get through all this sorry i'll let you come in after but um that's
what matters performance is what matters execution is what matters sharing ideas on twitter is what
90 of this platform does and to me that's useless garbage that is just for bragging rights and for
people to quote tweet look i quote tweet call outs the difference is, is that the stuff I call out is not ideas. It's stuff that's in my portfolio. Right. And for the people on Twitter who don't see all this transparency, because it's in my true, there'd be thousands of people in my comments are like, he's lying. Yet in my comments, you see people saying, thank you so much.
Yes, he shares his portfolio.
I mean, M and Evan are both in my community.
You sit up here every day and hear me talk about this.
You know, Evan reads my journal all the time and sees my position.
So it's all there.
It's there.
And that journal goes back for years.
You can see all of these picks on where I picked them, when I picked them,
why I picked them. It's not a bullshit operation. It's not a boiler room like 99% of these communities
you see out there. That's not what we do. We buy stuff, put our money where our mouth is,
tell you what we're buying, tell you when we're selling, tell you what the waiting is.
That's how all communities should be if you're paying for a service. But anyway,
You're paying for a service.
But anyway, on to the stocks.
Two weeks ago, I talked to you guys in detail on this space about my newest position.
I went over the thesis.
I talked to you guys about why I liked the chart.
I talked to you guys about why I liked the company.
I talked to you about the tailwinds from Apple, TSM, Broadcom.
I posted a tweet about it and pinned that tweet in the net.
So I think I sat here for 45 minutes and talked about Amcor, ticker AMKR, right?
Six billion market cap trading, 1X sales, the leading domestic OSAP company, and a company
that is on the eve of what I think is going to be a historic capacity expansion.
is going to be a historic capacity expansion. And over the last two weeks, that stock has gone
from 2450 to 2850 today is up between 17 and 18 percent, depending on where you got in.
And still almost no one's talking about it. If you search the ticker AMKR, this is a good practice,
right? Because there's millions of people on Twitter. There's a lot of people talking about stocks on Twitter. There's thousands of people talking about stocks,
right? Search the ticker AMKR in your search bar and scroll back to September 5th when I tweeted
about it first and scroll back before that and tell me one solitary person on this platform
that was talking about that ticker besides a bot okay or besides somebody
mentioning it because of a news article finally one person who was mentioning taking a position
and why they were taking it one on a platform with millions of people you won't find it
right and i have 300 000 followers and i was the first person to share it right
and you wonder like where does that come? It comes from the research that we do. That's why all this process that I talk about every single day on this platform, some of you think, you know, oh, you're being repetitive stock, you're reiterating what you're doing. I'm being emphatic about it because it works.
the definition of alpha to get into a stock before a week before a 20% move on. And by the way,
it's not a small cap. It's a $6 billion semi supply chain name. We're not talking about a
meme stock here. We're talking about a stock trading 1x sales that no one was talking about
at all and that we were positioned in and ready for. I am so heavily weighted in this thing with
leverage and shares. It went from
being a three and a half position for me, for me, I upsized it to a seven and a half percent
position. And today it's exceeding a 10 percent weighting in my entire portfolio. I opened the
position two weeks ago, two weeks ago. Right. So the power of timing in markets and actual research
that finds undiscovered ideas is enormous, especially in the SMID cap area, which is why it's where I focus, because there's less attention.
I was giving a rant like two weeks ago in these spaces about why it's so important or why I trade SMID caps and why I think the gap in coverage and information is so different with large caps.
I explained this in detail.
This is part of one of the reasons why, because you can find names like this before the crowd
realizes what's going on.
And so what's going on?
Why is the stock up now 20% in two weeks since I first started talking to you guys about
Amcor?
Well, a couple of things have happened.
The biggest news was actually last night.
First, I shared a clip on Twitter of
Tim Cook. This was about, I don't know, a week ago. Maybe it was earlier this week. I forgot
when I shared it. Yeah, earlier this week, I shared a video on Tim Cook talking about Amcor.
He name dropped them in an interview from September 12th. I guess people hadn't seen
the interview because the stock was flat and I shared the interview. People watched the interview
and then they started buying the stock, even though a week before that, I already shared the thesis with Apple, right?
So I guess people needed to heat it from Tim's cook's mouth. So the stock shot up 8% on that,
pulled back a percent and a half yesterday. And then overnight last night, the reason it's up
nine and a half percent today. And again, this is the type of news that if you're not looking for
it, you're not going to digest. This is not the type of news that the broader public is consuming.
But I read Taiwanese chip news all the time.
Dan Nysad is a great source to follow.
He reposts the articles a lot.
I just read those articles and then translate them on ChatGPT.
That's what I do.
So then I can read the article in English.
It's pretty quick.
The cool thing about Taiwanese articles is they're really short compared to American articles. So you can translate them and read them in like literally
a minute and you'll learn a lot because all the groundbreaking reporting about the semiconductor
industry comes out of Taiwan, not the United States. People don't understand that, right?
It's part of the reason why people have missed the Amcor play. But anyway,
I tweeted about it this morning, but overnight, there were
several reports from Taiwanese media that TSMC Arizona is receiving priority for new equipment.
Now, that's significant because AMKR, Amcor, is the OSAP partner for TSM in Arizona.
Now, the Peoria facility, which is the entire thesis behind this SOC, the Peoria facility will be the largest OSAP hub in the United States.
The reason it's significant is because this could accelerate the timeline for the Peoria facility, which is currently being priced by the market to expect it to come out in 2028.
facility, which is currently being priced by the market to expect it to come out in
2028.
With this equipment prioritization, what Taiwanese media is saying is that TSM is actively
diverting production equipment to Arizona away from their new Taiwan factory.
So there was equipment that was supposed to go there this month and last month that went
to Arizona instead.
Now, it was particularly interesting
because in the article, they referenced advanced COOS packaging being earlier than expected.
In the article, it's funny, even when Dan tweeted this, I guess Dan overlooked it. Dan's very
knowledgeable. I'm not knocking Dan. You should follow him to learn about the semiconductor
industry. He knows much more than I do. But I guess Dan overlooked it because the only ticker that should have been tagged,
if you hear advanced packaging, Arizona, TSM, if you hear that in the news or anywhere,
you should start associating that with Amcor because the market is going to begin to.
It didn't prior to last week, but today's move was the first time that that happened.
And I believe that the market will open its eyes and say, what the hell?
We think advanced packaging is going to grow at a 45 percent kegger.
Everyone's looking at Amcor saying the revenue's flat.
The company's not growing.
That's so myopic.
The Peoria facility could arguably 4X their entire revenue base.
One facility.
And now you're getting news that TSM is accelerating the Arizona production.
So why is TSM doing this?
Well, that's where it gets even more interesting.
TSM is doing this because, A, they already have three fabs planned and
processing and working for construction in Arizona. They already are building infrastructure,
right? Arizona in the next five years is going to become TSM's playground, okay? And the Arizona
government is eating it up because it's billions and billions of dollars in investment. The Arizona
government couldn't love it more. So TSM is about to take over Arizona in the next five to eight years with
hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure, market value, employment.
In the wake of that, Amcor is going to be their primary packaging partner. And the reason TSM is
shifting equipment to Arizona now is because the Trump administration is putting pressure on them with
the U.S. tariffs. Now, the reason the focus is specifically on advanced packaging is because
that's an easy give, right? If you're a semi-fab company or a designer or even a customer like
Apple, right, the beauty of Amcor is Amcor is a partner with everyone on the chain.
Amcor is an Apple partner. They're a TSM partner. And they're also a Broadcom who is a designer
partner. And they're also an NVIDIA partner too, for what it's worth. But I mean, talk about $6
billion company, right? That is the preferred OSAT packaging partner for the biggest companies
in the world. But anyway,
not only are they connected to it in that way of the chain, but advanced packaging is an easy give,
right? If you're a fab, if I'm a foreign fab, right? If I'm a foreign fabricator of semiconductor
chips, which is the hardest thing to do in semiconductors, right? If I'm a foreign fabricator
and I'm saying, dude, I don't want U.S. tariffs.
I need to placate the administration or appease the administration. What's the easiest way to do
that? What's the lowest cost, lowest infrastructure investment way to say made in the USA?
Packing. Chip packing. If you want to reshore the entire semiconductor industry in the United States
overnight, you're not going to do it overnight, right? Obviously, we all fucking know that no
one's a dumbass. It's gonna take years, right? But in the wake of that, in the two to three to
four years that it's going to take to reshore to actually reshore somebody, guess where all the
money from the chip companies is going to go to the us to osap because then you can say we outsourced our packaging and testing to the
united states of america and we are investing in america that's what's going to happen
and amcor is going to like i'm not going to be hyperbolic but amcor has an opportunity to double in that environment.
On sentiment alone.
On sentiment alone.
The stock is trading at 1x sales.
Yes, REV is flat.
Yes, EPS growth is flat.
That's not the point.
They're on the eve of a capacity expansion to become the leading partner for the biggest companies in the world in a reshoring effort to the United States that will involve hundreds of billions of dollars of investment.
And they're a $6 billion company.
So yes, Amcor is up 9% today.
Congrats to those that listened to me when I talked about it on this space on September 5th.
But no, I'm not selling, even though it's up 20% in a week.
I haven't sold a single share.
I don't plan to.
And in fact, if it does go down in a market downturn, I'll probably be doubling my position,
even though it's about to be a top five.
Actually, it is a top five waiting in my portfolio as of today.
So, yeah, I think this stock is worth twice what it's worth today.
I don't know if I can be any more straightforward than that, even after a 20% move.
I think the stock will trade 45 comfortably.
And if there are additional catalysts downstream with Apple intensifying their investment or partnership, I think it'll trade higher than that.
So anyway, some of you don't say I'm some of you say I'm not explicit enough when I share my ideas.
So hopefully that's explicit enough.
But that's Amcor. Beautiful day to day for Amcor.
Obviously, the other wonderful story from today was with Centris. I know we had
lift earlier in the week too, but Centris today up 15%. That's been a high conviction,
top-weighted position for us since May. It's basically back to all-time highs now
as of today's move. Nebius actually overtook that in waiting for me after the 50% move on the Microsoft deal.
But Centris is back today at number one after this return to all-time highs. So
Centris and Nebius both vying for top position in my portfolio, kind of battling with each other
for the top waiting spot. And now we have stocks like Amcor climbing the list rapidly in overall weighting.
And I actually don't plan to trim Amcor at all anytime in the next quarter at all.
I don't care what the price does.
So, I mean, obviously if it like doubles in a week or something, I will, but, you know,
I largely don't really care what the price does up or down.
I'm just going to continue to try to accumulate it if it gives me an opportunity to.
But I may have pounded the table too hard already.
Sometimes it's funny because I don't realize that I have a lot of followers now.
And so I'm a smid cap guy.
And so I pound the table on something that I haven't finished building a position into.
And then people start finding out about it.
And then it runs away from me.
So sometimes it kind of screws me over to share my ideas.
But I don't know.
I hope some of you guys benefit from it.
And, you know, at the end of the day, if you guys benefit from it, then, you know, at least somebody's getting help from it.
But, yeah, up 9.5% today.
You know, it'll be volatile like every stock is.
You know, at the end of the day, it's a smid cap.
It'll bounce around.
It'll probably retrace moves that it makes, y yada yada all caveats but um i really love the
story and i think last night's news makes it even better so that's about amcor uh on centrist
monster move today led the nuclear stocks i think people are just starting to realize that
centrist is next in line.
I mean, you look at the nuclear basket today, centrist outperformed even the SMR names.
I frankly think it just remains the best opportunity in the in the nuclear basket.
And, you know, what people failed to understand about the centrist story at 40 when I first bought it,
they failed to understand the centrist story at 96 when I bought it again in May. And what they still fail to understand is that the investor club, the dotcom era investor
club is looking at this stock and saying, you know what?
This stock is overvalued.
It's the P is insane.
It doesn't make sense. The company doesn't
generate that many earnings. Nuclear enrichment is not that profitable of a business, yada, yada,
yada. All those people have missed the boat. Stock's up 500, 600% in a couple of years,
and it's going to keep going. And you know why? And the reason why is because people don't
understand, especially with smid cap assets, the value of pure play exposure and strategic assets.
People don't understand how to factor that into valuation. In fact, most people pay it no mind at
all. And that's why most people suck at stock picking, because they don't understand that,
like, the way I like to think about smid caps, and I brought up this example before, and I
strongly encourage people who want to stock pick the way
that I do to think this way. I think of every smid cap as a private auction. So when I'm thinking
about valuation of smid caps, I just reasonably ask myself, like, yeah, the stock's extended.
Yeah, it's a hell of a story. But if you were to take this company's strategic asset and put it on auction to private multi-billion dollar buyers, would it go for more?
And if the answer to that question to me is absolutely yes, I usually just brush off the valuation concerns.
And that, I think, although a simple and sort of rudimentary approach, is a good way to block out a lot of fundamental noise, because let me be absolutely clear about this.
Most fundamental analysis is noise.
Like, I don't know many extremely fundamentally oriented investors that consistently outperform.
consistently outperform. So there's some that have like good years here and there, but like,
There's some that have like good years here and there.
if you're talking about completely fundamentally oriented, no technical knowledge at all,
um, and no sort of thematic, no, no interest to drive into like hot themes or, or catalyst driven
stuff. If you're somebody like that, like the chances that you consistently dramatically
outperform the market are pretty low, I think.
And that's going to shock a lot of people.
A lot of people are going to be pissed off by that because they're going to be like,
well, you know what?
I'm fundamental and I've done well in the markets.
I'm not saying you can't do well.
I'm not saying you can't outperform. But I'm saying if you want to super perform, in my view, you must have some sort of technical literacy, A,
and you must have some sort of cognizance of where the
money wants to go in the markets. And that's partially theme analysis and money flow analysis
and rotation analysis. Yeah, that's all part of it. But it's also like this broader, just like
instinct about market psychology. You know, like most stocks I buy, there's just something that clicks.
Yeah, I can talk about they fit the technical picture I'm looking for. They fit the TTM growth
I'm looking for. They fit the catalyst and theme I'm looking for. Yeah, yeah, that's all part of
the process. I'm not dismissing all that, but there's just something that clicks instinctually
once you have enough experience to say, yeah, yeah, that's a name that I'm going to buy and hold in size, right?
And almost all my performance is due to those positions.
When I look this year at the stocks that I weighted at 3% to 4% on entry versus the stocks that I weighted at seven to eight percent on entry.
You know, the performance difference is dramatic. I'm not just talking about the performance
difference, like in the amount of contribution they made. Obviously, the larger weighted positions
make a larger contribution. That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is, is that like
the positions that I weighted larger initially performed better. And there's something to say in that
about instinct, right? To say like, you know what, I'm going to overweight this position at the
outset. And I didn't used to do that. You know, when I was less experienced and less like confident
in my stock picking ability, I didn't used to operate that way. I used to scale in and scale
out, which is what new traders are taught to do. And I'm not dismissing it. I
don't think it's a bad thing to do. I think if you're like really trying to be optimally capital
efficient, it's probably a good thing to do. But I have a really strong stomach at this point.
You know, like I sort of just slap positions when I'm really confident, you know, and but,
but, you know, I think the danger with adopting that philosophy is that it leads some people to have really high turnover and get punished on the tax end.
And that's why I caution against it unless you're experienced, because unless you're experiencing your conviction in your picks, what you're going to end up doing if you operate that way is you're going to buy the stock and then like there's going to be a market downturn and you're going to get shaken out of not only that stock, but a lot of stocks that
you bought in recently. That's really bad for your portfolio because it's going to be bad for
tax purposes and potentially in danger for wash sales. But even if you avoid wash sales,
it's going to be bad for you for tax purposes in terms of sometimes closing positions for a gain before they should be closed.
And you're having to, you know, there's tax implications for that.
Closing positions in general have some sort of tax implications.
So for not only for tax reasons, but for the reasons of being able to tolerate daily volatility, I do not have high turnover.
of being able to tolerate daily volatility, I do not have high turnover, right? Like for somebody
who looks at a portfolio like mine, you'd be like, oh, stock, you must be in a new stock every week.
But people who follow me in my community know that I'm not, right? Like I've had this, I've had,
I think there's been 10 or 11 stocks in my portfolio that have been there pretty much all year,
like all year, you know,
through the deep seek sell off through this.
And the reason for that is because I don't,
like when there's rotations happening in the market,
some people think they have to rotate
their whole portfolio into them.
I do not believe in that philosophy.
In fact, I think that philosophy
is what leads to you getting sort of shaken out.
I mean, the exception to this
is that you're picking the absolute best names, which some people do, but for most people, I'm talking to masses,
you're going to get shaken out on every bump in that rotation. And I've said this before,
but usually market leaders just continue to lead, you know, rotations generally market lead,
rotations out of market leaders are generally short lived. That's what I should say. That's
how I should contextualize that.
But yeah, great day for Centris.
Fantastic day for Amcor. But, I mean, Materion too, you know?
That's another name that doesn't get talked about, I don't think, at all.
I mean, maybe I'm the only one that's been posting about it, but not many people are.
been posting about it, but not many people are. And that was up another 4% today. This thing has
And that was up another 4% today.
had a beautiful daily consolidation in the last couple of weeks and months and is now making a
monster move. And Materion is another one of those names where it's just too reasonably priced
considering the thematic relevance. Like, you know, just like I said with Amcor trading at 1x
sales, considering all that thematic relevance and considering all that opportunity, Materion, I'm not as bullish on
Materion. It's a smaller position, but, you know, it's a similar sort of thesis where it's trading
at 1x sales. It's in an industry that's super red hot, rare earth metals. I mean, like, well,
it's one of the hottest industries in the market right now. And it's just an ignored stock. You
know, I got into this sub 100 prior to their last earnings.
They had a beautiful earnings.
Stocks soared to 111, 112, 113.
Since then, it's been consolidating, right?
Most of August, been consolidating on the daily.
Moving averages are tight on this thing.
I mean, look at that beautiful action around the 21 EMA in the last couple of weeks, right?
Didn't even get a single close below it.
Just rode it perfectly
and then you know flipping to the upside now and breaking out of that local range above that 115
spot stocks trade 122 from 90 now in a jiffy right in in a month and a half this thing's trading from
the 90s to 122 and not a sole stock about it right like it's materially higher the stock's
materially higher my options are up like 350
percent like you the thing is is that these types of stocks don't get noticed and when you get in
early you get these enormous cushions and then when the crowd finds it you're just playing with
you know you're just playing with free money at that point like you're looking at the crowd find
stocks that you were in 40 50 60 percent, like there's no better feeling than that.
You know, that's what happened with me with Nebius.
That's what happened with Kratos, so on and so on.
It's going to happen with Amcor.
It's already starting to happen.
It's already 20% higher.
So, you know, these are kind of what you aim for if you're trying to build a single stock portfolio that can consistently outperform the market.
These are the type of
opportunities you're looking for. Consolidating opportunities and really hot themes that are
reasonably priced fundamentally that have strong charts. That's a recipe for success.
And people laugh sometimes. Some of the legacy guys will be like, Stock Talk, you're valuing
these companies on sales. Why are you looking at them at 1x sales? And I laugh at that retort because I say, dude,
all their peers are trading at 10, 20, 30x sales. That's why. When you look at these hot themes,
you don't need to bring a PE into the equation. What are we, fucking idiots? Nobody cares about
PE with these hot thematics. What they care about is the stock relatively reasonably priced. That's
all they care about in the laggards. And when you have stocks
in the hottest themes and markets trading 1x sales, the bottom line is they should not be
trading at 1x sales. These stocks should be trading minimum 2, 2.5x sales just from the
thematic interest alone, let alone the potential fundamental opportunity. You're looking at
names like Amcor. What if that capacity expansion 3Xs their revenue? Like on that
premium alone, you have to inflate the multiple. So that's how I think about these stocks. I think
I look for areas where I see opportunity for obvious multiple expansion. And not to mention
Kratos up another six and a half percent today, right? My tweet about Kratos earlier in this year,
Kratos up another six and a half percent today. Right. My tweet about Kratos earlier in this year, I said at 45, I said Kratos is going to one hundred dollars. I'll see you there. Wake me up there. The stock's eighty dollars now. It's almost there. It was forty five. Right. And I was pounding the table. I wrote I literally said I am not selling one single share. See you at one hundred dollars. It was half the less than half the price that it is today. So you have to follow these
darts with conviction or else you're not going to be able to hold through those moves. Most people
traded these names when they were a third of the price they are today and they got a 20% gain and
they got out. Very few people have held all of these names through 150, 200, 300% moves to the upside.
And the only way you do that is through conviction.
The only way.
Last thing I'll mention is, or last couple things, two things I'll mention.
Digital Ocean put in a nice candle today.
That's one of my newer positions.
Small waiting, not like, not super pound the table E like, uh, the other stuff I
talked about today, but, uh, it is putting in a nice candle, uh, into the end of this week.
And I would like to see it potentially close above or push into the 200 week moving average,
um, into the end of this week. Next week would be fine too. It doesn't have to,
but, uh, that would be the first break of the 200 week moving average for digital ocean ever so that's uh cool to know obviously
the 200 week moving average is relatively new on that name it popped up this year but um still cool
to know uh so dock and i like the action on that today and then And then Fubo continues to act really well.
No real complaints about that one.
Trying to climb out of that really year-long basing action after the gap up.
That merger is September 30th.
Yeah, September 30th.
So you'll know by the end of the month if that merger with hulu live tv and fubo is going through but really nice action lately on that one as it climbs out of uh that consolidation that's been
recently um and then i added a new position today i really tried to not add this one like i
i posted a i posted a meme in the discord of i don't know if you guys seen that barb simpson
meme where he's like writing
on the chalkboard.
Have you seen that?
He's like scribbling on the chalkboard.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So I posted that and I was like,
I will not add a position.
I have enough positions.
I do not need more risk.
I will not add a position.
I have enough positions.
I do not need more risk.
And I like put that meme in there.
And then later in the day,
I just decided to pull the trigger.
So this morning at like 519 ish, I opened a DPRO, which is Dragonfly. It's a drone company based
out of Canada, but they're doing a lot of work in the U S they're working with the Arizona
sheriff's office for border protection with their drones as well. You know, there are a couple of
things about this. Again,
I generally don't trade market caps under 200 million, but there's a couple of reasons why I
bought this. First of all, the weekly chart is ridiculously pretty. Like it's, I don't know,
it's not a textbook or something. You look at this flag on the weekly, like this week's candle is like poking its head above
the hundred week, like perfectly, like just poking its head above. In fact, today's close
is like right there, right? Like the hundred weeks at 528, today's close was 546, but
that's a hell of a look. And even on the daily, it's pretty. And like, it's just pretty on all
timeframes. A monthly too, like the monthly, you're getting that nine month EMA crossing the
20 months. Like it's just really, really attractive technically on all timeframes.
So I couldn't help myself. So I bought a three and a half percent position in that today. That's
relative. That's a starter position for me that's how i start three
and a half percent if it's high conviction i go seven percent i couldn't make this high conviction
because i don't know enough about the business but like i looked at peer valuations in this space
like the rest of the drone names like i was scrolling through it and i was like dude they're
all trading at like one to two billion market caps doing nothing in revenue like it doesn't make sense this thing could 5x i don't think anyone
would care that sounds crazy but like i really don't think anyone would care if this thing 5x
like if this thing 5x would be a 500 million market cap it'd still be the smallest market
cap of all the drone peers in the space and they do real work this isn't like a bullshit company
that has fake products like they're doing work with the arizona sheriff's office for border
patrol like they're actually forward deployed drones, surveillance drones.
Like, and the cool thing about the Arizona Sheriff's Office connection for DPRO is that
the Arizona sheriffs that are using it are not only supporters and donators to,
but friends of the Trump administration, which is a cool tidbit.
You know, I'm not implying anything or speculating anything, but that's good to know.
But really, to me, this is twofold.
It's just a gorgeous chart.
And it is a, I don't want to say undervalued, because I hate using that term, because like,
you're always valuing it against some sort of benchmark.
What I'll say is that it's undervalued versus its peers,
versus its small-cap drone peers.
All of its small-cap drone peers trade a 10 to 12x evaluation.
And I mean, the chart says this could go to $60 comfortably. I know that sounds ridiculously crazy and stupid, and I'm not saying it will,
but, you know, I don't know.
Crazier things have happened.
It's a small market cap.
Yeah, I don't know.
I felt like I had to buy it today,
so I just bought it.
So I'm mentioning that to you guys here today
as I usually do,
but if you want to get the alerts live,
as always, that's only in our community.
But yeah, I opened that this morning around 519.
Had a nice day today into the close.
Had a nice close.
So, yeah, DPR, I think that's interesting.
I'll pin the chart at the top.
to mention is that this market is continuing to defy a lot of people's expectations, I
think because people are listening to the wrong people.
And, you know, yesterday we had quite a debate on here from somebody that was calling Tom.
I hope he is okay today.
I hope those shorts are okay today. But we had quite a debate yesterday.
And, you know, what I want to say is that I said this yesterday.
You're never going to know when the party is going to stop.
You're just not.
You never know when the music's going to like randomly stop.
You just don't.
The only thing you can do as a trader or an investor is rely on the data that is available to you.
That is it.
And that's by design.
Like, you know, if somebody were to come to you and say, here's something that you'll never know.
Do you want to bet money on predicting it?
Like who would do that in their right mind?
You know, if you know something is unknowable,
then why ever put your money on trying to predict it, right?
So that's kind of what Black Swan events are.
You'll never, ever know when they'll happen.
And maybe Big Ben will be right and, you know,
we'll get one next week but
you can never operate in the markets thinking that way and you'll never make money if you do
and you'll always be stuck on the sidelines you'll always be missing out on market gains you'll always
be watching me post gains and being mad and commenting that you don't believe me and all
this stuff that these crazy people do on twitter so uh but anyway, it's been a hell of a week.
I'm very happy.
I'm going to celebrate this weekend and just enjoy myself.
But I appreciate all of you for listening on.
Hopefully some of you benefited from Amcor.
Shared explicitly on this on this space.
You know, it was I talked to you guys in my newest position, talked to Evan about it, told Evan to buy it.
I mean, we've talked about it for 45 minutes.
So I hope some of you guys listen when I talk.
I hope some of you guys buy the stocks that I talk about if you like them.
If you've bought basically anything I've mentioned this year, you've done well.
So, you know, I hope everyone's killing it out there.
But a hell of a day.
And I'm just, I'm proud of myself for the work I put in,
but also very, very pleased with the results.
So, yeah, it's been a hell of a week.
And if you have benefited in the audience from these picks that we talk about go show that post
in the nest some love go comment show us show some love on that post you know back-to-back
years with 200 returns is not easy especially when you're being transparent with everyone
especially when you're telling everyone what you're doing you know there's this misconception
a lot of my friends told me
this, and actually some of my advisors and mentors told me this when my page started getting bigger,
was that they were like, you can't talk about your ideas anymore, because you're a smidcap guy.
And you have 300,000 followers. If you talk about your ideas, they won't work.
And I just refused to believe that.
You know, I don't share everything I do on Twitter.
I don't share my entries and exits.
That's by design because I can't share that stuff.
That's only shared in our community.
But I still share my ideas on Twitter.
And they continue to work.
So I don't believe in this idea that, like, the alpha is stolen away when you share it with people.
I think with really, really good ideas that are undiscovered by the market, I think they'll work either way.
And I pride myself on finding those types of ideas.
You know, I'm not a guy that uses my following to try to produce activity on my stocks.
I'm a guy that finds stocks that I really like, that I put my money where my mouth is.
And I tell you guys, hey, you might like this too.
So go check it out. You know. But don't buy everything I buy. If it doesn't make sense to you when I'm
explaining them, I try to go into a lot of detail in these spaces when I explain stuff. Like,
if you missed my piece on Amcor earlier, go listen to the recording. I went into a lot of
detail on why I like it, what the tailwinds are, why I think the valuation is too low.
what the tailwinds are, why I think the valuation is too low.
Listen to that, analyze it, be dubious, check my facts,
and then decide if you want to buy it.
You don't have to like, oh, Stock Talk mentioned it, so I got to buy it.
And look, it's humbling.
I love that and respect that, like that people want to bet on me
and want to bet on my picks.
Like, you know, every time I mention something in Discord,
people are ape into it. And like, I i tell them not to but they still do it and i love that it's
humbling but i i also want people to know that like that's not necessary to be successful you
know like if for example on september 5th when i brought up amcor you could have liked it and
bought it that day and done well or you could have waited a and bought it that day and done well. Or you could have waited a
couple of days. It was red. It's had three or four red days since then. You know, if you really
liked it, you would have bought it on one of those days. Yet today it's up nine and a half percent.
And the amount of people on Twitter and Discord, they're tagging me saying, is it too late to buy?
I just, I'll never get it. I'll never understand because no one ever wants it when the setup is being shared and when the stock is quiet and not doing anything that people don't
want it. They want it when it's ripping 20% in a week. So try to learn lessons from that,
you know, and try to keep grooving and cruising. But yeah, congrats to anyone that was in any of
those stocks today. There were quite a few stocks today that showed why they're market leaders. They showed loudly. After a binary event like tomorrow, like yesterday,
sorry, gets cleared, market action is very telling the day after binary events. You see people
rushing into the stocks that they're like, I shouldn't have sold this. I shouldn't have sold
this ahead of FOMC. And you see people rushing back back into those stocks like Centris, like Nebius, like Amcor that are ripping today. And so when people rush back into
those names on days like today, consolidated days like today, you have to ask yourself,
why are they doing that? And then you go look at the charts and you're like, oh, I see. There's a
reason these stocks have been the strongest stocks all year. There's's reason people are flocking to them in moments of uh market turnaround so yeah hopefully all that's useful you guys know that was a long fucking
rant rant but uh i had a lot of stuff to cover so i think i was like whoa that might have been
one of the records right 30 minutes maybe 45 minutes how long was that oh 45 pretty solid
actually uh damn dude without stopping i gotta get a medal for that or something.
Well don't stop now because I've got more questions for you.
No, one thing we didn't cover, I know a lot of the the panel had to drop off there for a little bit.
One thing, the meta event yesterday, which I know we've talked about it some, the wearable stuff, but I wanted to kind of get your take around that, you know, watching it.
For those that maybe missed it, obviously that Meta Connect, they basically, the new glasses with the heads up display in them, they showed those off a little bit.
There was a few tech issues, but they tried to, well, they claim it was a Wi-Fi issue,
but it seems like that was shrugged off pretty much.
Yeah, there were some naysayers saying,
oh, look, the tech's not working like they're always going to do.
But I thought it was pretty good overall.
SockTalk, did you get a chance to watch it?
I didn't.
It was pretty interesting.
Like I said, there was a couple of hiccups like they
said the connectivity wasn't working maybe with the wi-fi or something but it was really cool um
and i know you've looked at this theme uh i'm trying to remember the company that you mentioned
that you were uh warby parker is that the one that you've been yeah i mean i don't own it i don't
own it anymore but i do really like that name still.
I think it'll do really well.
They just got to figure out the program in terms of actually deploying the glasses.
But, I mean, that stock did great today.
It did great.
It's like 6% today, I think.
And that weekly chart, the monthly chart actually on Warby is so pretty.
Like, my God, that's a hell of a monthly chart on Warby. But yeah, I love the AI glasses theme,
man. I think that's going to be so big. I really do believe that. I think that's the next generation
to compute. Somebody just has to figure it out. Like somebody has to figure out how to make these
in a way that is like just so effortless, you know know and I think the new rendition that
you're talking about with Ray-Ban is pretty close right we're getting pretty
close
yeah I think it was really interesting seeing the finally sync we saw the
leaked video which if you haven't seen that don't even bother now because you
can watch the full thing and all the clips up. Evan put out a few pieces on it last night. But the heads up display was really
cool. And I think about, you know, some of your comments and others on the space about
the iPhone and obviously the cell phone in general, smartphone was kind of the big device
of the last, gosh, 15 years, I guess, at this point, maybe more, almost 20 years,
because it was really like 07, I guess,
when the iPhone was released.
And now it's like, okay,
if somebody can figure out this wearables thing,
and Meta seems to be, I know Google's involved too,
but Meta seems to be kind of trying to push this along.
This seems like it could be the next kind of big thing.
Obviously, we'll have to see how the adoption works and stuff.
But, you know, being able to see those things on your glasses is really cool.
I would definitely, we didn't watch it.
It's worth, you know, at least watching some of the clips of it.
One thing that was interesting to me, StockTalk,
if you're driving and you ask AI something
and all of a sudden you have something in front of one of your eyes,
I wonder if that creates an issue for anything
but the rest of it was all pretty cool
you could look at pretty much anything
and start asking questions
like what you're talking about
that's why it's gotta be AI
I get it if like maybe
I don't know
I was just trying to think it through a little bit
because somebody else had brought this up earlier in the day
and I was like okay a normal person if you have two you know two
good vision eyes and something pops up in front of one eye it could be a little confusing but i
feel like people adjust to that pretty quickly i mean how many people are texting and driving
anyway and stuff like that you're looking there's so many smart functions in cars nowadays that
you're looking down at half the time and who knows knows, if Tesla figures this thing out, you may not be driving in five years anyway. But that was an interesting
thought about it. But it looked really interesting to like the gestures. So you could do gestures and
stuff that, you know, helped. It basically takes the phone out of your pocket because like you can
do gestures to control the AI stuff.
You can talk to it.
Obviously, you can hear it, and it pops up the information right there in your eye.
I wonder how seamless it's going to be, but it was really interesting.
I wonder if you're driving and something pops up, if that throws you off or if it has driving mode.
driving mode. I'm sure they've probably thought of this, but that was one of the things that
I'm sure they've probably thought of this, but that was one of the things that popped into my head.
popped into my head.
Yeah, you know, it's going to be tricky because like you're talking about with like object
occlusion and like sensing, the tricky part is going to be doing it in like a, doing the
heads up display in a tasteful way. Like the heads up display in a tasteful way like the heads up display in my view
should be like editable in the way that it was editable in the apple pro and the display i saw
some clips from the i didn't see the whole presentation i saw some clips from it and the
way they're presenting it is that it kind of is but i feel like it can be obfuscating at times. So I don't know the workaround for that.
But I think Zuckerberg's design team with Essilor's design team is killing it.
Like, killing it.
I mean, I know that the glasses look the same as they used to, but I'm talking about the people who are designing the lenses.
I think they're killing it.
Like, they're becoming, quickly becoming a formidable hardware company.
You know, five
years ago, no one thought this about meta. Um, I, you guys know, I focus on some mid cap stocks.
If I was going to try to buy any of the, the mag seven here that I don't own, right? Like I have
positions in Amazon and Tesla that I've owned for a long time and I'm not selling those. But
if I was trying to get into a mag seven that i didn't own it would undoubtedly be meta undoubtedly i
just can't find the entry i want to get like i've been looking for this monthly chart to pull back
and april was an opportunity but i just was asleep at the wheel in april on that name um i would have
loved to buy it at 470 in april but obviously it's fucking 800 bucks now but um i just haven't gotten
the entry on this i've wanted i've always felt like it was too extended to get in and then it
just rips higher and just i just lost my my uh focus on this one but i love the the bear market
that the 2022 bear market dip like because it came down so it came down so hard it was under 100
bucks and because i think because of that just
the function of that and it being so underpriced and then like i remember when that earnings
happened what was it like beginning of 2024 yeah i'm looking at the weekly chart yeah it had to
have been like that that q4 earnings going into the early 2024 that like gap up that it just
launched and like that was kind of like, I don't know,
it was one of those things like, gosh, you just,
you know, you just swallow him by and it is tough.
It's been a really tricky one.
When it comes to the AI side of things,
and we had a nice AI discussion earlier with Daniel
and Wolfie and several people,
but, you know, people talk about ChatGPT and OpenAI,
people talk about Grok.
I don't hear many people, at least not on these spaces,
talk much about Meta's AI,
but I feel like Meta's a big player in the AI game.
I just don't know, why do you think nobody talks about it?
That's a good question.
I think it's the same reason why not enough people talk about
Google AI, but Gemini, which is one of the best in the industry. And I think it's like this,
it's about how you're packaging the product, right? Like if you were to break the LLMs apart
and look at like open AI, Microsoft, Gemini, and, um, an XAI, you would kind of view them as constituents of their platforms. Most Gemini
usage right now happens actually through Google search, the highest volume of Gemini usage.
Because if you Google anything now, and I'm sure people know this, the first thing that pops up
for you is an explanation from Google before the search results even do,
right? It's part of the reason why advertisers are getting pissed off because not as many people
are clicking the sponsored links because they're just reading Google's answer that they give you
ahead of the results. So Google's done that with Gemini. Meta's also done that with Llama,
where on WhatsApp and their other platforms, they've integrated Llama AI into the platform.
So people are using them through Facebook and through their other platforms.
And so they're not recognizing it as a standalone AI product.
Like on the contrary, OpenAI, who is recognized as a standalone AI product, launched it standalone.
Right. And now they're trying to backwards integrate by like, you know, they're talking about acquiring Chrome, which they couldn't do.
But they're talking about that. They're talking about, you know, trying to make these acquisitions in the infrastructure space.
They're starting a hardware arm with Johnny Ives.
So they're trying to backwards integrate now after starting as a standalone company.
And so that's where they get the recognition from.
But all of the hyperscalers, Mag7s, all their models are just kind of viewed as a product of their platforms.
I think that's why.
I think that's why Meta doesn't get a lot of chatter about their AI.
But they're the leader in open source.
I mean, pretty unquestionably, they're the leader in open source.
So they deserve credit.
But Zuckerberg is on.
I don't know what Zuckerberg's been on for the last two years, but he's been on some kind of magic limitless pill because they are executing like firing on all cylinders. Their, their management of their employees has been
phenomenal. Um, everything's been phenomenal. Their, their, their head count reductions have
been timely. Like you're talking about like 10 out of 10 management from a mag seven company,
which is actually kind of unusual because most of these companies get complacent at their size.
Um, but I mean, incredible meta's gotta be one of the most incredible stories in the market. which is actually kind of unusual because most of these companies get complacent at their size.
But I mean, Meta's got to be one of the most incredible stories in the market.
Stock down to 86 in October of 22 from highs of 400 and now back to new highs of almost 800.
Insane move. You could have 7x to your investment on Meta from know, from the lows, not on a meme stock.
That's pretty wild.
So that piece is wild.
And I feel like people will start talking about Llama more.
Maybe it'll happen as these glasses get out there a little bit more.
The ecosystem thing is really interesting to me as well.
So I've talked, you know, you think about chat GPT or Grok and, you know, I guess Grok, you have kind of X and your Tesla cars and stuff.
But it feels like when you think about the ecosystem, obviously Apple, we know, completely
dropped the ball. We don't have to beat that dead horse. But Meta has an ecosystem. It really does.
When you think about Instagram,
you think about a lot of people probably saw Facebook, but Instagram as big as it is.
And then you also have WhatsApp, which maybe not in the US being as big, but you've got international,
you know, friends and cousins and family and stuff. But WhatsApp as big as it is, I feel like the AI piece of llama and the amount of people that are in the meta ecosystem,
and then if they are able to find a lot of success with these wearables,
I feel like the AI from meta is going to be used a lot more
and going to be talked about a whole lot more than it is right now.
Yeah, I agree completely i think it's going to be
i think it's going to be a very very big dynamic switch in the next few years where you're going
to see a big pivot in supply chains as well in that direction and that's actually one of the
areas i'm researching currently is smart glass supply chains.
There's a couple of smid caps that I'm looking at in that area.
Potentially a new position in the next couple of weeks, but it's like four names.
I still have to do some research.
But yeah, it's funny that you brought that up because I'm looking exactly at that.
I think you'll see a lot of money go there.
The thing with big tech is that a lot of people don't realize every time there's technology pivots,
there is industry creation that happens.
And what I mean by that is that like,
there are supply chains and infrastructure that are needed to enable new industry that don't exist.
Right. And so when big movers like the Mag seven or any industry titans, really, there's a lot of two or three hundred billion companies that control their industry.
It doesn't have to just be big tech. But when any industry titan, you know, I'm talking 250 plus billion market cap, basically total market control, you know, in many cases, 40 to 60% plus total market share.
When those companies want to do something new, anything, make a new product, innovate, you know, enable a new industry, whatever.
When they want to do that, they have to build
the groundwork to allow them to do that. You know, if you're a phone company and you want
to build a smart glass, you have to build the supply chain to make the smart glass.
If you're a, if you're a gas powered car company and you want to pivot to electric vehicles,
you have to build the electric vehicle plants and get the lithium supply and get battery grade refined lithium, right? These are new supply
chains for new industries, pretty straightforward concept, right? Not hard to understand that.
So when the Mag 7 in particularly have these new product pivots or have these new industries they're penetrating
the most famous example from the last few years is obviously ai hundreds of billions of dollars
of spend right data centers being built everywhere everywhere right what is that that's infrastructure
being built so they can enable the ai because it's a new industry because they
did data centers at this scale ever exist before?
And they exist now because of who?
Because of the hyperscalers, the Mag-7.
They made them exist.
They built, they created that whole industry out of thin air.
Right?
They were like, we need compute to enable ai training and we need compute to enable ai
inference and as a result of that we need a lot of compute in one place so we're going to start
paying billions and billions of dollars to build data centers no one builds them right now but
we're going to make it happen and in a year a half, it's become the fastest growing industry in the world, not in the country, in the world,
it's the fastest growing industry in a year and a half because four companies decided it so.
That's it. That's the power of the Mag-7. They can create an industry in a thin air and they did.
And this will happen with AI glasses too. It will happen with every new frontier in tech.
Supply chains will be built. And the really good stock pickers, the best stock pickers,
what they do is they find the companies that will immediately benefit in earnings growth
and in thematic relevance from these pivots. And those companies often have the
highest percentage gains because there's fundamental story there. There's a thematic
relevance there. There's technical strength there if you're picking the right charts.
And you could capitalize on those themes without following the herd. You can capitalize on those
themes without buying the NVIDIA or buying the Tesla or buying whatever the industry leader.
Without buying Meta.
Without buying Meta.
Exactly.
You can benefit from those.
Like Warby Parker, when I brought it up, it was like, what, under 20 bucks, like 28 bucks today.
I mean, I already sold it for profit, but it keeps going and going and going.
That's an example of that, right?
They have a smart glass partnership with Google.
They're going to design it.
It's a tiny eyeglass purveyor. That's a example of that, right? They have a smart glass partnership with Google. They're going to design it.
It's a tiny eyeglass purveyor.
That's a company changing thing, right?
So finding those stocks, the enablers, the SMID caps in the chain, in the ecosystem, that's where you get ridiculous returns.
Those are the type of stocks that go up 2, 3, 4, 500% in short order.
Those are the stocks of stocks that go up two three four five hundred percent in short order those are the stocks that do that so you know if you want to take it from me if my if my consistency
in my stock picking is any is any example to you then uh you know take heed to that because
i pay very close attention to supply chains i pay very close attention to new industries. And I ask myself,
where is the money going to have to be spent to make this happen?
Like that Amcor thesis that I deep dove on at the start of the space, that's an example of that.
I found that stock because my conclusion after reading what I read about semiconductor packaging
was that the money is going to go to us osats and that's why
i picked that name so yeah that's kind of just you know i guess a long-winded answer to that question
i like it appreciate that stock talk there were a lot of people i saw in the comments and of
course under that post you pinned up there, you know,
impressed and thankful, a lot of things along those lines. So obviously great congratulations
there. And George, saw you popped up on stage with us here. We are going to talk, we're going
to keep with this AI thing a little bit here, because not only can you invest in AI, you can
invest with AI and Prospero kind of bridges the
gap of both of those with some great opportunities here.
And some of you may have heard from George before, but it's always great to have him on
the space with us.
If you haven't, you definitely want to tune in, pay attention to this piece right here.
George, before we really dive into it, I want to kind of get your thoughts.
We've talked a lot about AI today.
We talked about NVIDIA. We talked about the Intel thing. We were talking about
some of the meta stuff. And I'm just curious, uh, AI, at least as soon as telling us it's
a 10 year cycle and it's probably going to keep going. And most people seem to be in
agreeance with that. Curious, uh, your thoughts around any of the, uh, the pieces since I've
last got the chance to spoke with you. Yeah, I mean, sorry, George.
Yeah, hello. Thanks for having me.
Yeah, I mean, I think we're just seeing like time and time again,
how, you know, resilient it is if it even gets hit, right?
I mean, we've seen such a run up.
And then, you know, if it even gets hit like a stock we got earlier in the week, Synopsys, SNPS, you know, that got hit pretty hard around, you know, some of the deals that were announced.
You know, we're up in a few days, you know, close to 13 percent.
close to 13%, right?
Right.
And, you know, it just wasn't that long before,
you know, people were like, hey, you know,
they might not, you know, they might not be
as exciting name as they once were relative to other ones,
but, you know, we're going to get the breadth of this trade.
Like, you know, this, you know, all ships are going to rise.
Like, I think, you know, AMD was kind of, with their rise,
AMD was down a little bit.
So there's a bit of this back and forth,
but I trust AMD will be on a nice run again before long.
And yeah, I mean, I would say the interesting thing,
we're looking at, I think, cyber mining,
you know, Iron, these other companies now
that are starting to get like,
not only the, you know, blockchain crypto lift, but also just this
like kind of like it's a good time to have computing capacity lift as well. So I think
that's again where you really see, you know, the breadth of this and, and, you know, it,
there's no limits to it where it just like clean park clean spark clsk was a stock we had
a lot about a year ago and our filters and screeners and things hadn't heard much about
it in a while all of a sudden i saw it pop up you know in our top 20 momentum score um again today
so i mean it just goes it just goes to show you like I do think that, you know, we're probably due for, you know, at least one correction in an ongoing run up on this.
You know, it might be pretty it might be pretty sharp, but, you know, it's something that you got it.
You got to buy the dip on. And I think you got to, you know, look for more and more breadth because, you know, some of these names like, you know, like names, like Cypher, that came to me probably a little later than someone like Stocktalk.
I'm sure that was on his radar long before mine.
But yeah, I think that's the other thing that just continues to impress me, especially today, like how much breadth the AI trade really has.
It does seem like it's super resilient, too.
I mean, at the Open today, you brought up AMD, you brought up a point that a couple of
people were raising earlier.
Well, you looked at, you know, obviously NVIDIA and Intel had the news, right?
But Jensen came out and said, hey, the game plan with ARM is still in place.
Like, nothing's changed over there.
You saw ARM, you saw AMD,
and some of these other names that were getting hit at the open
kind of gapping down.
You saw them all get bought up today.
I mean, and that was one of the questions I asked earlier.
I'm curious your thoughts, George.
There is enough room for everyone in this AI trade.
And it seems like it's not a crowded trade.
It seems like it just continues to expand.
And people are even diving in into some of
these other functions of AI with the energy pieces and all the different stuff.
I'm curious your thoughts of the resilience in it.
You look at it today, you mentioned AMD there, and everyone's just buying it out.
They're like, hey, this is the dip to get in.
I don't think it's an overcrowded trade at all. Yeah, I mean, I think it's, I don't really want to use the word value because it's not like true value in the sense of the word, but it's certainly relative value.
Like that's what I was talking about with SNPS, right?
And what you're talking about with AMD.
I think people are constantly saying, like, I think people are constantly wanting to commit more capital to the AI trade.
You know, I think, you know, you always have new people getting in, you know, especially as it gets,
you know, higher and higher. And I think those people are saying, you know, where does this go
today? Right? Where's the opportunity? Where's the relative value? And I think that's where,
you know, that's what I'm doing. I think that's what a lot of people are doing. I'm kind of just like, if I want to play kind of this risk on mindset that I did today,
where is that going to go?
Or I should say yesterday, I got into a lot of this stuff yesterday.
Everything was looking good in my portfolio today.
I don't think I didn't adjust anything.
But, but yeah, I think that's, I think that's the big thing where it's just like people are going to continue to look for value where they can relative value. And, and, and, you know, this,
you know, I've done it with core weave a couple of times, like gone short, then gone long. We have
a really, really good read on, on, on core weave in terms of, I would say net option sentiment
upside. It's like one of our more impressive case studies. But yeah, I'm pretty
much, I'm on the hunt for any of these stocks that are getting hit and just like pretty much
waiting. I did it a few times with CoreWeaver where I was shorting it and then saying, hey,
you know, when's this going to turn around? You know, Synopsys was a good one, but I'm sure that'll be a constant. And then the other thing is, you know, that that is an
important kind of breadth thing is we got we got into Baidu on Sunday, which again is like after
a big run, we tend to philosophically not really want to get into China stocks, but it was sitting
at the top of our bull screener, which Baidu has never really been in the top 20 of our of our stocks. And, you know, when we do kind of like our weekend,
you know, kind of value and momentum mix screener. And yeah, we got into even with our China
hesitations, we got into Baidu. And, you know, sure enough, there was that, you know, acceleration
on kind of the internal chip announcement. So. So, yeah, I think there's no better representation of that
where it's like even Baidu is rising on this idea
that they're going to be, you know, making their own chips,
you know, probably at the expense of companies like NVIDIA,
but even that doesn't slow down.
You know, it raises Baidu, and Baidu is, you know, a little bit down today.
But there certainly seems to be plenty of room for everyone to go up, even if there's
a little lunch stealing going on.
All right, I got to take the moment here to take my victory lap and give you thanks again
on this.
I mentioned this on one of the other spaces that we had with you,
George, this Baidu trade that I took. And it was one of those where everyone started talking about,
you know, China as a certain, and these charts started to break out. And I heard everyone
talking about BABA and I felt like I missed, you know, the, missed the trade because once
everyone's talking about it, I just feel like, okay, am I too late? And it's tough.
You know, sometimes emotions creep in.
And I pulled up Prospero,
which if you haven't downloaded Prospero,
go to your app store down.
There's a free app.
It's fantastic. And there's so much more to it
than just the free part as well.
But short-term bull, long-term bull.
I pull it up.
I look at both.
I was live on Space.
Jordan was there.
And I'm looking for a
trade, right? And I'm like, okay, I'm hearing all this stuff about China. I'm hearing about, you
know, China AI, which is an interesting topic or interesting theme. There's some varied opinions
on how it's going to turn out, but either way, right now the sentiment's strong around it.
And I see Baidu on both the short and long-term bull lists from Prospero.
And I said, okay, that takes a little bit of my, maybe my emotion out of it.
And so I got into some, I looked at the chart.
I said, hey, I would love to take a swing trade here and see if the price can get to 130.
That's the strike that I liked.
Got into the calls for December.
George, I closed those out yesterday for 800%.
So I actually told Jordan, I was like,
I need to just jump. I need to take those profits and just invest in Prospero itself,
which there's a link up top to that. We'll talk about that here in a moment, but a full
opportunity to get a piece of Prospero AI on top of that. But George, I just wanted to say one,
I mean, boy, what a powerful tool because I have a perfect success story with Baidu.
I'm curious your thoughts around the China AI thing in general, but I just wanted to share that I appreciate the 800% swing trade that worked out.
I had it until December and when it went up that much, I said, OK, I got to take some profits out here.
So I ended up closing it out fully yesterday for the update on that.
I may have to put a thread out on that, but everything was strong on Baidu. And even if I look at
Prospero right now, I still see a lot of names on here. I see Baidu on here still has very strong
net option sentiment, very strong technical sentiment, 85 on that profitability upside 87.
It's really good metrics here. But first off, thanks, George,
for that play. I appreciate it. 800%, nothing too shabby. I mean, it's one trade, obviously,
not a full port type of thing, but fantastic there. And I see it on short and long term,
and I'm like, wow, okay, a lot more confidence in some of these things now. But when it comes
to the China AI trade, George, do you think, I mean, we don't think China is going to get left behind.
And we're seeing the charts kind of start to tell us that story with Baidu and Baba.
What are your thoughts around the China AI trade?
Is it sustainable?
I mean, obviously, the breakout has been incredible.
It's a two, three-year bear market over there.
And some of the charts look really good now.
So here's what I love about Prospero and what we've built.
And it was basically built, a lot of this stuff was built because I had holes in my understanding
and I was missing things.
And I said, how do I solve for a number of problems that I had? And, you know, the big one that I had was, when do I exit a stock? And like, what you brought up is a really, really good example of why, you know, people love Prospero and, you know, it makes my life easier. It's because like, you know, you got in and I
heard that story and there was like, you know, part of me looking at the chart, like, you know,
wondering, you know, am I late? You know, maybe I should have gotten early. You know, these,
these China things are really difficult. And I promise I'm going to circle back to your question
at the end. And, you know, I saw it on Sunday and it was just such a strong, you know, it was still so strong in our screener that I'm like, I can't I can't pass this up.
Like it's still it's still clearly has some juice.
And, you know, the nice part about that as well is that, you know, we have things like that.
Like one of our most famous case studies is meta where like a number of people and, you know, upside is a bit different than, you know, an option sentiment that's more pure short term options markets.
Upside layers in things like, you know, long term call demand above where the stock is trading, analyst ratings, price targets, different price momentum factors.
And, you know, meta for over two years was sitting at 100 upside breakout on our scale.
And like pretty much it's only been, you know, Meta, Coinbase last year, which we did very well on, and Palantir and now Tesla this year.
Those are the only ones I've seen have extended trips at 100.
And Tesla looks like it's going to be another one after Palantir.
But the nice thing about that is, you know, I always struggle with, you know, the technical part of it, where it's just like an RSI can, you know, like it's, oh, sorry, I got a call, but I think it didn't cut out for a call.
Yeah.
And, you know, a lot of people that, you know, are even newer to Prospero at this time were just like, you know, what, like, is it still good?
It's saying it's overbought.
And I'm just like, yeah, it's still good.
You know, our options metrics update every three minutes with the options markets.
You know, if analysts keep raising their price targets, they have to to have it keep going
at 100.
They have to keep their buy recommendations.
These options trades have to continue to be live above where the stock is trading, strikes above.
So yeah, that's the really nice part of it. And for me, I wish I had more time. I'm managing
different portfolios, writing newsletters, and I have normal CEO responsibilities of a startup.
But luckily, I don't have to think too much about that stuff. And it makes my life a lot easier,
because quite frankly, there's too many geopolitical variables.
There's like, you know, we wrote our newsletter early today on on how we one of our best case studies was Alibaba, where we got out in front of we had big gains out in front of two major news events in 2022, 2023, when our signals again were just like Alibaba was, you know, the top stock there.
And after this, I'm going to circle back to something.
But yeah, that's the nice thing.
Like, honestly, I don't know.
I don't know if it's overvalued.
Like, you look at traditional value metrics, and I'm always just like, well, look at Amazon and Alibaba.
Like, Amazon is at a 35 PE and Alibaba is at a 19.
But there's a reason for that discount.
It's not one-to-one in their business.
But there's a reason for that discount.
It's hard to grok what the appropriate amount is.
But yeah, that's the thing that I really love about Prospero.
And I'm actually going to share some of our reviews that I really encourage anyone that's thinking about the crowdfund to look at, because we have traders that use it.
We have investors, we have new people that are just like learning how to use it with Prospero.
The way we've invented it is to really be a support system for, you know, any kind of strategy and a way to, you know, a lot of the times of the times, take you out of your comfort zone.
A new one, Corey's here in a lot of these, but she's not here today, but I'll speak for her.
When I met Corey a few years ago, she was just a long-term investor. And over the course of using
Prospero, she's become a swing trader. And it's been a great support system for that. So yeah,
I want to share it because that's one of the things that I'm really proud of with Prospero. And I'm going
to stick that, you know, Baidu newsletter below in that thread if you look at it. But it's just
a really, really good tool that helps anyone get better, like including me, makes my job a lot
easier, makes me not have to like, not have to answer that very, very difficult
question of like, are these China stocks, are they overpriced? Are they underpriced? I got no idea.
I'm just going to, as long as they're looking really, really good in our signals,
I'm sticking in the Baidu trade. I hear you on that. There's a lot of stuff we can unpack and
talk about on this space for sure, and I'm excited for it. I do want to take a moment just to call attention up top in the nest, as we call it here
on Spaces or the Jumbotron, whatever you like up there. There is a link straight to the crowdfund
that Prospero is doing, so you can actually invest in Prospero itself as well as everyone's investing
in AI, right? Well, you can invest with AI by using Prospero.
You can also invest in Prospero itself.
Great opportunity there.
And he just mentioned the reviews.
And if you go to that link up top,
there's a ton of great information in here to check out.
There is a section, you can see it
as soon as you load the page, says reviews.
It has a number 37 next to it.
And it says, hear from some of the 215 people reserved or invested in Prospero.ai.
And you can read some of these.
But George, you hit on that piece.
And I think there's no better time than now for you to kind of hit some of the reviews
we've talked about.
I see Corey's name in here as I'm scrolling down.
And I encourage everyone to go in here and read some of it themselves.
Yeah, I mean, let's, I can just like pull up, you know, some of them. It might be a better
use of time for people to do it on their own, but I'm always happy. I'll get it up there because,
you know, it's really, what's cool about these reviews is, you know, and I even asked, I
even asked for public and they said it's highly unusual, unusual, like, you know, almost 20%
of the people that invested have, you know, have invested.
And I'm actually just going to read this one.
I might read way more, but I mean, this one's, I might not read many more, but this one is
probably my favorite.
And this person came to me after they invested, and they said that to me personally after they
invested. And I was like, can you post that? But he said, I started as a frustrated retail investor,
an excessive number of poor picks, and steadily shrinking account. This app changed that
trajectory. With Prospero, I sharpened my research, my entries and exits became disciplined,
and my stock selection improved notice and exits became disciplined, and my
stock selection improved noticeably. Most important, learning directly from George let me emulate his
process. Seeing how he frames a thesis, weighs risk, and reviews outcomes helped me internalize
his approaches and thinking so I could build a truly holistic market view and a better investing
perspective. George's personal attention to the community he's cultivated makes a world of a
difference. He answers questions, stress tests ideas, and genuinely cares about the progress.
This speaks volumes about the type of person and CEO at the helm of this remarkable company.
The result for me has been real.
I went from losing money to making money and now approach the markets with clarity and confidence.
Phenomenal work on the app, the business, and the community.
Thank you for leveling up my investing game and guiding us on this journey to building wealth. I mean, that's the kind of thing that I'm just like, you know,
I do this job to be able to like get people in that way. And, you know, for people that,
for people that might be saying like, well, you know, that's all fine and good, but how long are
you going to be able to help people individually? And I mean, A, I think forever, right? I can't,
I can't help everybody, but,
you know, I kind of always say I use the Google 20% rule and 20% of that is, you know, spending
time with people that use our app. You know, I give like free investing education sessions,
you know, and sometimes I tell people that passive investing is going to be better for them. I want
to help people. I don't want to push people in the wrong thing. But we're already seeing that's really remarkable is people that I've taught
teaching other people. Right. And that scales really well. And it's not always going to be me.
But that's the thing that makes me really, really happy when I see other people have taught other
people. You know, I'm told that they'd come through a friend, anything like that.
Like, that's really, really cool, because not only does it say, you know, a lot about the product and that, you know, doesn't need to be me.
Someone else could teach someone else how to how to use it and find gains and go from like, you know, zero to 30 as an investor.
But, you know, it also says something about our philosophy and I think you know the idea of kind
of teaching people to fish I think is something really unique in terms of also an advanced
technology platform I think a lot of advanced technology platforms would kind of just like
you know pay a lot for our signals you know they, we don't really give a shit much, like, if
you can use them or not, or how easy they are to learn.
But, you know, that is, you know, one of the differentiators for us as a company as well,
which is like, we, you know, on the crowdfund, there's actually a lot of good, like, question
and answer.
And like, one of the questions we got was, how are you different than pay finance, an
asset manager?
And, you know, that's an easy, kind of like a personalization, you know, Gen AI play. And I was like, that's easy.
Well, these asset managers have to pay, you know, about a thousand dollars an early user. That's
what Wealthfront and Betterment paid. You know, we pay $1.50 to get our users into our funnel.
And long term, we do want to be an awesome manager, but we want to earn trust first
and we want to get people into our funnel.
So, you know, not only can we get them in cheaper,
but also, you know, people can sort of see
how the sausage is made.
They can see how we build portfolios.
They can see, use the signals for themselves.
So by the time we're like,
hey, we have this ETF using these signals,
there's so much more trust embedded.
There's going to be so much more loyalty
embedded in that. So yeah, that's kind of, you know, some people wonder why we do
it this way instead of just investing or whatever. And that's why we see a lot of value in building,
you know, relationships like that, that review. I'll find like one more. This is more of a trading
one. That was obviously more of a learning one.
I've been using Crossbaro for over two years, which has had a fantastic impact on my trading.
I day trade futures and options primarily on ESPY and NQQQQ indexes. Before using Crossbaro,
my only real insight into market bias was pure technical analysis and fragmented gamma exposure
tools. While profitable in the years before Prospero,
my performance has improved dramatically
since using Prospero's most powerful signal, net option sentiment.
That's my guiding light when setting up my day for trading.
And now take half as many trades as before that align with this number,
increasing my win rate from 60% to 74% and my profit factor from 2% to 3%.
I've also used it for some excellent
option swing trades which the newsletters offer have helped me convince me to follow the numbers
on the app i've had a 500 options win on ascs 300 on app and many 100 wins on the usual big tickers
such as nvidia meta tesla etc i would never have taken these trades had prospero not exposed the
bullishness of these stocks that belied their average technicals at the time.
Prospero also allows you to hold trades for much longer and time your exits when the numbers
start turning against you, making risk management and the overall decision-making process much
easier.
I've been a big fan of Prospero from the start, and seeing the roadmap to a more feature-rich
platform excites me for many more big trades.
So yeah, I mean, like the only
thing I'll say about that, I think that one really speaks for itself. But, you know, in terms of what
sets us apart, and you know, I met, you know, this is kind of full circle on, you know, what I said
about spending a lot of time with retail investors. And the funny thing about net option sentiment,
you know, by far our most powerful signal, a big reason why, you know, our newsletter picks are beating the market by an average
of 67% the last four years.
And today we're sitting at 66.51%.
So that tells you a little something about our consistency, as well as for this year,
for 2025.
And, you know, our win rates, this is our best year in terms of our accuracy.
It's at 62.53% on 910 picks this year.
And our lowest number on that has been 58% on individual picks benchmarked to the S&P
500.
But net option sentiment didn't exist in the first, you know, version of Prospera eventually.
And this is V4 of it.
And, you know, we improved by, you know, getting a lot of feedback. But, you know,
one of the things I would do in my, you know, investing tutoring sessions is I would teach
people how to read options chains, and it never went very well. And, you know, one day, it was
like a Friday afternoon, I was like exhausted. And I got a little frustrated. And I was like,
what if I told you the options markets like this, or didn't like this stock? And that person was
like, yeah, well, if you could tell me that, we'd be saving a lot of time. And I was like, great. And I went to,
you know, invent the signal and I never had to teach anyone an options chain again. And like,
that is just another way that we're really unique because of the way that we prioritize this
relationship with our users. And, you know, I'm the chief data scientist. I'm talking to the users directly. I'm
the tip of the spear on the product as well. So, you know, not only do I have this contact,
I'm also creating a zero loss feedback loop between the users and the products. And yeah,
if you go to like a lot of these, and that'll be always the case, by the way, I've never given that
up. And, and by the way,, if you go to these large organizations,
not only do you not have
the decisions makers talking to users directly,
you also have a lot of loss between
those conversations at the ground level,
these entirely different product units,
and data science units.
I think that's really what makes us special today
and will make us even more special long-term.
Definitely a lot of special things there, George.
And if I know anything about you,
I know how hands-on you'll continue to be
and continue to improve this.
And it's very exciting.
It's exciting times for retail,
especially we know this surgence of retail
kind of coming into the market
and almost taking over and doing so well.
And a lot of it is due to these tools like this.
I mean, we know that 70% of traders fell and investors don't do well and don't outperform the market.
And, you know, if they have tools like this, that's what kind of gets them over the edge,
unless they're, you know, somebody like a StockTalk that is very, very good and very meticulous in
his process, of course. Once again, all those reviews are verifiable reviews. These are people
that have invested that are dropping these reviews in here. And I'm not going to waste a whole lot
more time talking about that piece. But I did want to mention, there's one that just says,
after being told about the app by whole Mars blog on X, I decided to try it out for myself.
And he goes on to basically say, after trying it out, he then invested in it as well.
So not only did he start using it, he started investing in it.
And our friend Omar is up on stage with us today.
Omar, you got shouted out in a review here for putting this app on somebody's radar.
I know that you've used it as
well for many different things and you're a big fan of the tech as well. I'd love for you to come
in the conversation here and share some of your thoughts around investing with Prospero and maybe
investing in Prospero. Yeah, I have heard from a bunch of my followers actually that they've
just downloaded the free app and tried it out. And I'm an investor to full disclosure, I joined the crowdfund. So I mean,
it's really the same philosophy that guides a lot of my other investments, which is invest in
products that you actually use and like. And I mean, the bottom line for me is just,
it works. I open, I check this, I get ideas, I make money. And it helps put things on your radar
that you might not have noticed otherwise. I mean, there's a lot of stocks in the stock market.
you might not have noticed otherwise.
I mean, there's a lot of stocks in the stock market.
There's a lot of different things happening.
You could kind of go and sift through the news
and try and figure out
where there might be some interesting moves.
Or you can honestly just open Prospero.
Look at the bull and bear picks.
Look at the signals like net option sentiment in the
sidebar there. Look at your watch list. And you can kind of just see those stocks boiled down for
you. Like today, I noticed, you know, Intel, Oracle, Meta, without even knowing about the NVIDIA, Intel News, or the new Meta Glasses,
or whatever events are driving up these stocks. You can see them called out and then go do more
research, see what is driving this price action, decide if you want to increase your position,
decrease your position. And they just make it dead simple. A lot of my followers are
retail investors. They're not professional asset managers or anything like that.
They're people who've just got started investing themselves, and they're really at a disadvantage in so many ways
compared to the institutions. The institutions have so many more tools. They know how to
look at a lot of data that retail investors don't have access to. And this kind of brings a lot of
that power to the fingertips of retail investors.
And I think there's a ton of potential for the theme of investing in AI in general.
I mean, for so many investors, AI has already become sort of an indispensable part of a lot of the investing process understanding filings trying to find uh
picks and i think there's a ton of potential for prospero they're working on some really cool
things so i'm excited to be an investor there i mean, I honestly can't count how many times I've heard from people who've said,
hey, thanks for telling me about this free app.
I downloaded it and I started checking it.
And, oh, good thing I opened a position on Intel or Oracle or whatever company that applies to them. So, I mean, it sounds crazy, right?
That you could just open this app and see these picks and increase your win rate. But
that's what people will tell me. That's what I've been seeing for myself.
So that's really why I check it every day. I open my brokerage, I check my portfolio, and then right after I check Prospero. And that's something that's kind of worked out for me. And that's why I decided to become an investor too.
Straight from the horse's mouth, as they say, Omar, I've had just because I'm behind the Wolf
account and behind this account and, you know, in a lot of these spaces, we put it on people's
radar and we're getting kind of that same response that you're getting. People are saying, hey,
I downloaded the app and it's helped me in many ways, you know, taking out the emotional side of
things. I mean, you talk about valuations. Most people know Omar as a big Tesla
guy. He's a big tech guy in general. He's not just, it's not all Tesla. And he comes on a lot
of these spaces, as most of you know. But you mentioned Meta there. Meta, people saying, well,
look at the stock, look at the chart. It's overvalued. It's overpriced. But yet, I can
pull up Prospero and see Meta on both short and long-term bull lists right now.
And if that emotion creeps in, which it does for a lot of investors, and Omar spoke to this a little bit, he's like, I can take that piece out of it, right?
I can take the emotional side out of things.
And once again, there's the free app. And George, I want to bring you back in here because some people are looking at this and
they're going, okay, there's a crowdfund opportunity where I can invest in Prospero AI.
But I'm hearing about a free app and you guys do so much more than just the free app itself.
So I definitely want to bring that piece up.
Actually, Omar, let me go ahead and let you jump back in and then we'll go over to George
on that.
Yeah, you mentioned a couple interesting things.
I mean, I think it is really interesting to get ideas that are just so data-based. Like I noticed
a lot of Chinese equities popping up on Prospero. I think that's kind of interesting. And you
mentioned Tesla. Tesla's been having a little bit of a run. And for a long time, it had a very high upside ranking on Prospero.
And, you know, it's been kind of trading in a range for a long time.
Long-term investors like me, like sometimes you don't really feel that conviction, right?
You're thinking, okay, this thing's just kind of going
in circles. I don't know if this is going anywhere anytime soon. You've got a core business that's
struggling a little bit. Is it going to be trading at a $2 trillion valuation? I wasn't always feeling
that strong of a conviction that we were going to see a run like this sometime soon.
conviction that we were going to see a run like this sometime soon. But Prospero had a very high
upside ranking. I almost didn't believe it. But I mean, you've seen in the last year or so,
it run from the 200s into the 400s. So sometimes, you know, you get caught up in what people are
saying, the sentiment, you get your head kind of stuck in
what the discussion is and what people are saying. And I think it's really helpful often,
even for stocks that you know well, to kind of look at those data-driven signals and
see what the market's saying.
A hundred percent. Now, I know I didn't just hear you doubt Tesla at any moment in there. That didn't creep
in. I know I didn't hear that, but the rest of it, I mean, it makes perfect sense, right? It
makes perfect sense. And whether you're a long-term investor, a swing trader, as we've heard some
people convert to kind of start doing both and have a more well-rounded approach maybe to investing in
and attacking these markets. The China piece, I think, is very interesting as well.
Those names started popping up there. And then you look at the breakout in K-Web,
you look at the breakout in Bava and Baidu. And of course, once again, those things right there
in front of a lot of people's noses on the app. And George, I do want to circle back.
And my question there was around the free app obviously is fantastic, but you guys have
a lot more stuff too.
There's alerts that are available and coming out to people.
There's a newsletter.
And I want you to hit on some of those pieces, some of the other things that Prospero has
available for people and how you guys are growing this business. And obviously, you know, the crowdfund is going fantastic. Over
a quarter million has been raised already just since our last space, not too long ago. So like
over 30 people have jumped in and invested in this. So definitely, once again, that link's up
top. Just want to call everyone's attention. Maybe if you slid in the space a little bit later, you can jump in there, see all kinds
of great information around this.
But George, I want to pass the mic over to you and let you hit on some of the other things
that Prospero offers outside of just the app that anybody can download off of the App Store.
Yeah, so the best way to look at it is the apps choose your own adventure,
check your watch list,
look at what we're seeing in short, long-term.
Some people like to look at the signals.
We also have a daily screener that sends an alert.
The cool thing about that, we're running a small cap one today since yesterday.
Really good day for that to get those opportunities.
That'll always be my current market view.
It'll be bull
or bear, and then what I'm looking to isolate, what I'm seeing in the signals. And I should
mention, I alluded to it with CleanSpark earlier, we're seeing a lot of crypto stocks in our
momentum score. We saw MSTR up there, CleanSpark, we're seeing a lot. So I think that Omar reminded
me of that when he said it was like, sometimes you can see
what's going on in these patterns because we're just ranking things in pretty much the same
way every day.
Then there's the newsletters.
We have an investing letter and a trading letter.
The investing letter is just pretty much like, I have a value investing background.
pretty much like, you know, I have a value investing background. I worked at my first
I worked at my first value fund when I was 17.
value fund when I was 17. And that's really me trying to combine value principles with
these kind of like more modern signals that I built, you know, make sure a qualitative
and quantitative thesis is there. Then we have our trading letter that's pure quant.
I didn't mention this, you know, when I was quoting performance, but we have over 6,000 investments in about
three years. There are trades, and those are about 28% above the market, which is actually
very similar to AlphaPix in terms of their performance. And we're generating about 100
ideas a month versus their two. So that's a really good, just like pure signal, you know, synopsis,
I actually grabbed from momentum score that was in the trading letter. And it was like,
it was actually number one, two days ago. That's what gave me conviction on that. You know, then
we're about to release our alerts, which lucky for you, we actually found out from Republic that we
couldn't give our perks. So that delayed the release of alerts a little bit because we're just clearing something with our legal team based on what we can offer people.
But we're definitely going to, there's a link to sign up that we can share to get a free week.
You can check them out before you decide to invest.
First access to alerts will only go to crowdfund investors for as little as $300, and they're going to be $50 a month.
So you can get them largely equity for free with what you would pay to start doing it to get first access.
And that's kind of the next generation of simplifying things for people, right?
Obviously, we have the self-directed.
We have two different portfolios.
But this one's just going to be our best idea of the day.
It's actually our most modern system.
None of our other systems use any LLMs.
But this one is actually integrating the best of the Prospero foundational models, the system.
And then also integrating a whole web of web data and new logic systems.
And yeah, one of the really cool parts about that is this system has actually read all my newsletters and watched all my live streams.
And there's kind of like a digital version of me that's being created within the system that I'm kind of seeing grow up before my eyes.
So that's really cool.
You know, then we're going to have like uh you know a web app there's
a lot of other features we want to build to like that people have asked us for um to you know set
their own alerts or build their own screeners um and then you know we're gonna do a discord as well
a paid discord and that's actually where we're gonna roll out probably the mvp of our generative
ai system that's going to be kind of more of a way to search information on Prospero,
ask it questions so you can leverage
the best of LLMs,
as well as navigate our signals like,
show me an accelerated computing company
that's less than 5 billion in market cap,
that has the best upside,
that thing right now that
wouldn't get you very far in our search bar. But we're going to roll that out first best upside, that kind of thing right now that wouldn't get you very far in our search bar.
But we're going to roll that out first on Discord, test it out.
Then longer term by 2027,
we're looking at maybe doing one of
the copy trading platforms before that.
But by 2027, we're targeting having our own ETF.
The really cool thing about our strategy is,
I mentioned before, sometimes people are just like, why is all this free? our own ETFs. And the really cool thing about our strategy is,
you know, I mentioned before,
sometimes people are just like,
why is all this free, right?
Because actually our bigger concern in the short term
has always been that we are more interested
in earning people's trust than money.
Because long-term, we want to be able to ask
our user base questions like, what's your temperature?
And be able to model, say a pandemic in, what's your temperature? And be able to
model, say, a pandemic in real time, and essentially do what the US senators were doing
when they were looking at hospital data, reassuring the public, shorting the market.
But instead of that private arbitrage, we make that more of a public utility, which would
incentivize more data sharing. And that's just the big alpha thing example, but it could really
be as simple as Apple's reporting tomorrow.
Let's find out what the last phone people bought
when the next one they're planning to buy,
if they're planning to switch to Samsung,
all that stuff.
We can use data generated by people
and really disrupt the system
where hedge funds are buying things
like real-time credit card swipes,
camera data, satellite images, web traffic data,
and that's data that you don't really own,
that they get without consent, that they use against,
they use to beat retail.
And we just want to, long-term, that's our mission.
We have a bold mission. We want to realign that.
We want to give power back to the people.
And we think our long-term rewards, both in terms of profits
and in terms of the impact we
can have on people, is going to be massive. So yeah, that's another reason why we're doing the
crowdfund. We really want to vest people in our success. We want to make them part of our success
and so we can all win together.
I love that.
So that was a great peek into kind of the roadmap of where Prospero is heading at this point.
I mean, there's so many exciting things being developed and opened up.
And George, that was a great rundown of that. You mentioned the chance to get some of the premium paid trade signals.
And I know we have that link. I went ahead and just pin that up top as well. If you're interested
in that for free, go ahead and fill out that form and we can get you some access to try those out
for free over there as well. So got both of those links up top, one for the crowd funds,
and then the other one for the early access to try out those
trade signals, which I'm super excited about after just seeing the free app alone. I'm like, wow,
okay, this is going to get better and better. Sam Solid, I want to bring you into the conversation
if you're available. And I know you've got some thoughts around Prospero and you've taken a look
at it. And Sam, you're a big swing trader, notably you.
You've been outspoken about that.
I'm curious, Prospero, what are your thoughts around it?
How are you using AI in your investing and your trading ideas?
Well, pull up a chart, MU,
and the fundamentals lined up pretty well with this.
Pretty much been long leaps ever since their earnings with oracle
actually before their earnings with oracle on top of that uh prospero is just entirely bullish
micron um i'm still long leaps i've sold a couple of far dated calls on it but other than that
still holding i mean they don't expire for a long time i got more than a year on it but other than that still holding i mean they don't expire for a long time i got more than a year on it but um to be honest they're they're 200 strikes and it ran like 40 points i bought them
so sitting pretty nice and i'm staying bullish on it until prospero tells me otherwise um so yes i
certainly have time to talk about prospero i mean i I don't use it much for the long-term strategy.
I mean, I do look at it, but I like the chart to tell me the story.
And I also use the combined Prospero, which is one of the tools in Toolbelt, but not a
sole indicator of relying on.
But when it comes to MU, it's like, if you pull up the chart, it pretty much made new
all-time highs recently.
And on top of that, let me zoom out to start.
Okay, yeah, new all-time highs. I was wondering if it already hit new all-time highs in 20.40. No, it hit new all-time highs recently and on top of that uh let me zoom out to start okay yeah new all-time highs i
was wondering if like it ever hit new all-time highs in 20.40 no hit new all-time highs recently
and it's like way above the moving averages i don't do fib charts um to be honest i don't really
find too much alpha then that doesn't really work too well to me obviously the rsi is not a
sole indicator but i mean this thing is obviously running hot prospero is telling me to stay long
so i'm gonna go ahead and stay along on it there's a lot of factors on there that it gives me
and overall though it has a massive secular tailwind with basically everything has to do
building out ai stuff so staying along for sparrow and uh happy to be um part of the uh
part of the round on it um i did invest the money in Prospero.
I want to see the app grow.
I think it's great that it's a free product.
And yeah, highly recommend it.
Didn't catch the entire Baba trade, but I did catch part of it.
Let's just say that I took profit a little bit too quickly.
And that's probably one thing I should have relied more on Prospero for because
Prospero has been wholly bullish it.
And I didn't hold on to it, unfortunately, but I did make some good money on it.
What's another interesting one is seeing Prospero's score just get more bullish on
open or open door.
There were a couple of things I looked in here, but it has a 85 upside or 80 a score of 85
out of 100 upside on the long-term chart and the short term has a bunch of dark pool net options
and technicals um all the scores are above 50 and 70 for short pressure i don't know man i'm
thinking about opening another speculative position on open door. I did have an open door position in shares before.
I sold it too early, obviously.
But I mean, it was a handsome gain of like 20, 30% in just a matter of a couple of days.
I don't know.
I'm seeing the story that's happening.
The fundamentals are unfolding around it.
Obviously, it's a very speculative company and not financial advice.
The thing could just go back to $2 and then nothing would have changed in terms of fundamentals.
But as far as just a speculative bet for the long term, and you're seeing the rates come down,
we're seeing the housing market basically going to start coming back likely as soon as they start
continuing to cut rates. There's two more rate cuts priced for this year. So the
total rate is going to be around 3.5 to 3.75 for the year and that would mean that mortgage rates are just continuing to
make lower lows and this uh this stock on a momentum scale can seriously run and prosperage
is becoming even more bullish on it every single day so kind of tell me hey maybe this is the time
to uh open a position on there. So,
you know, having decided, you know, we'll see about that, but you never know, man, but I really,
I really liked the product. It's, it's really good. It kind of builds the confidence. It's
one of the tools in the tool belt, of course, but you know, just, just another, just another
useful tool that the tool belt, I'd really don't have a lot that I use, but this is definitely a
good one.
Yeah, Sam, I love that. George was even mentioning the small cap piece a while ago, and I know you're paying attention to a lot of the macro stuff going on, and we see new all-time
high on the Russell today. We see a lot of these home builders and the rate sensitive stocks and all
that going. And it is tough. You know, sometimes you see, you also mentioned Bava there, when you
see these breakouts and that kind of happened to me with Baidu, I see the breakout and I'm like,
I feel like I'm chasing it, but I can look at all the metrics and AI is going to take that
emotion out of it for me and allow me to stay in the trade. And I did.
And maybe I got out too early even getting out yesterday, but who knows,
you know, I'm, I'm, I'm more than happy with that game there.
So I love that piece. Jordan,
I want to swing over to you real fast as well and make sure we get you in the
conversation. Appreciate Sam's thoughts there.
conversation. I appreciate Sam's thoughts there. Appreciate everyone for being here today. But
Appreciate everyone for being here today, but Jordan,
Jordan, you've notably said that you're focused on trading futures day in and day out, but you
still have your long-term stuff. And I know you've checked out Prospero many times. I'm just curious
your thoughts around Prospero for our audience over here on this side. Yeah, thanks, Sam. I mean,
we've talked about it before, right? And you guys know, we love taking advantage of all the opportunity in the markets constantly. And we're on futures trading, arguably all day long, every single day, right? So we're trying to catch as many of the moves as we can. But these types of opportunities are just not on our desk every day, right? Like getting the chance to actually own a piece of a company that
you might actually truly believe. And I know there's so many people in the audience that
love Prospero that use it every single day that arguably can't live without it. And if that's you
in the audience, I think this is something you have to look into, you know, whether or not you
make the decision to like pull the trigger and actually invest, you know, it's going to be on
you and you can, you can look through all the info and obviously like get questions answered. But I just think it's a missed
opportunity if you don't at least look at the information and just look at what you might miss
out on, right? Because again, for the people that believe in Prospero and believe like there's a
future here, I think this is a huge opportunity. I mean, we've taken, you know, you guys know I've
I have a few private investments that I've taken in the past and I'm looking to up the list. I mean, we've taken, you know, you guys know, I've, I have a few private investments that I've taken in the past, and I'm looking to up the list, I want to get as many as
possible, right, of companies that I truly believe in. And if I have some extra money that I can
throw towards it, and then just, you know, forget about that. I mean, that's, I want to set myself
up with as many as those opportunities as possible, right, in my life, personally.. So I mean, that's really what I
would say to everybody in the chat, you know, if you want the opportunity to like have something
like that, look into this, it's a low barrier to entry to there's so many of you that probably
sitting back saying, there's no way I can afford, like, you know, to get in some sort of private
investment, I thought the same thing. And then you look at this, and the minimums 250 bucks to
be able to invest.
And I think if you guys want the signals as well,
it's like a minimum of 300, I believe.
But regardless, if you guys are anywhere near the VC space,
you know that that is minuscule
compared to what you're gonna pay
trying to be a big investor
in any other company in the space, right?
Most of the time it's hundreds of thousands of dollars, right?
And you can literally get in for under what, you know,
most nine to five checks are going to be.
Like, that's ridiculous, right?
Like, so I just, again, check out the information.
That link is up top.
I just hope everybody, you know, takes advantage
and sees what they might be missing out on.
But some great stuff.
I love Prospero.
We're using it every day.
Shout out Baidu.
That was a beautiful play, Emp.
I love to hear you killing it on that.
That was, I think, what was it, 800% in like two weeks or something?
It's just ridiculous.
We looked back, and we need to go find that recording because it was live on Spaces.
It was September the 4th.
September the 4th to yesterday on the 17th.
I had December contracts, but I was like, wow, what do I do at 800%?
And as a trader in my brain, I have to go, okay, let's take some profits off the table here.
I trimmed once on the way up there, but locked that in.
But just a fantastic
thing stock talk do we have a stock talk around i'm here what's up i got a question stock talk
when you mentioned uh what was uh ancor or whatever what was the one that you were
amcor yeah yeah how long when you took that position or how long did you research into that
How long when you took that position or how long did you research into that?
Oh, weeks.
I spent actually maybe even a month.
I spent the better part of July, end of July and August, studying advanced packaging.
Yeah, I just think people are just overlooking the OSAT opportunity in the United States.
think people are just overlooking the OSAT opportunity in the United States yeah I spent
weeks maybe even a month on on on just advanced packaging research and then at the end of that
research I start doing my deep dives I always go industry down so I don't like start with the stock
I start with the industry try to understand the industry try to understand what's missing where
the investment might go and then I look at the stocks. And as you know, I focus on SMID cap. So I'm looking at sub 10
billion market caps. I'm looking for stocks that I think can double or more. That's like anything
I buy, I think it can double. I don't buy stocks if I don't think it can at least double. So
that's kind of how I do it. I go top down. But yeah, that one, Amcor, the research was
kind of how I do it. I go top down. But yeah, that one, Amcor, the research was
very long. It's not always that long. Sometimes I do 45 minutes of research on a position and
checks all the boxes right away and I buy it right away. But there's other positions that
take weeks or months to research because I don't have the industry knowledge that is necessary to
make proper stock picks. I think, honestly, research
wise, that's where a lot of people go wrong. They don't know what they're talking about.
They just buy a stock because they hear something or they see like a blue chip partnership
association, they buy it. Like if you want to be able to hold stocks through multi-bagger
returns, you have to understand the industry. You have to know what's going on. You have
to understand the peer relationships. You have to understand how the stock is valued
versus peers, why it's valued that way.
What are the opportunities to close that valuation gap?
All of this requires knowledge to make reasonable deductions about that.
So I think the best stock pickers and the best traders are sort of jack of all trades.
They know a little bit about a lot of industries.
You know, I wouldn't say I'm an expert in any industry.
You know, I'm not PhD level in any industry, but I know enough about the industries that
I invest in that I can make informed decisions about managing those stocks so that I can
know, hey, the thesis is breaking down here.
This, this and this went wrong, you know, or hey, the thesis is even better here.
I'm going to upsize the position.
You know, they're doing this right or they're executing or whatever.
You don't make any of those conclusions accurately
without knowing the industry first.
So I'm always a top-down guy.
But yeah, to answer your question,
I spent probably a month researching for that name.
Yeah, and obviously Stock Talk had a great diatribe
on that earlier in this space.
Of course, it was recorded.
But the reason I bring that up is to illustrate the point
of a lot of people don't have a month to put into something. And there's so much
data that StockTalk, obviously, through his process and through years of experience, has been
able to create a process that works for him very, very well. But a lot of people don't have that
kind of time. And one thing that AI has done for
retail investors is close that gap in a little bit. And if you're not a stock talk, which
surely a lot of people would definitely strive to be something like that. But if you're not,
then you look at this and you go, okay, I don't have a month's worth of time, but I can use AI. And that's what retail is now leaning into, I think, is these AI tools that are allowing retail to go in and do maybe not a month's worth of research, but there's so much information and data that can be collected. on here and strong technical, say over a 92 on the technical signals right here on Amcor.
It's really interesting.
And George, as we get to the top of the hour here, I want to bring it back over to you.
And gosh, you've heard some great stuff here, of course, as always from the crew up here.
We really appreciate all of them.
But is there anything that we haven't hit on, George?
And I know we've had a few different conversations with you and it's impossible to cover all
the great aspects and things that go into Prospero AI, but definitely want to give you a chance to jump back in here.
And if there's anything we didn't cover that you want to mention today.
Yeah, I mean, I mean, other than that, you know, whether you're thinking about investing or not, like, you know, I, I, I encourage you to, you know, join our discord, you know,
reach out to me personally. If you just want to get better at investing, like I said,
I do free sessions, George at Prospero.ai.
Also, if you want to try our newsletters, anything like that, like, you know,
I love to engage people, help them figure out the best product to get into,
you know, any questions. I'm always happy to answer. You know, I love, you know,
I know all of these influencers, because I started out with a small group, just reaching out in that
exact same way. Like, hey, you know, I have this new product. This was before our app was built by
a former creative director at Apple, it was a little harder to use. And I was like, hey, we have
this app, I think it might fit your style and XYZ way. And, you know, that's how I developed relationships,
which turned into more relationships with, you know, anybody that knows about Prospero knows it
through pretty much through an ex-influencer. You know, most of our inbound has come that way. So I
really appreciate the community. And, you. And the only other thing I'd say
other than that, and I think there's a lot of amazing information on the crowdfund, even if
you just want to find out about the product, I'd also encourage people, some people, they hear this
for the first time, they hear our performance, and they might be skeptical. I encourage you to
go down to the FAQ in the crowdfund
and take a look at our case studies.
That'll give you a little more detail
on some of our key signals.
They'll kind of see how this stuff isn't easy.
And actually, especially the last few months,
it's been a hard market to read
and maybe not our best few months,
but we're still having another incredible year.
As I mentioned, right at our average, you know, about 67% above the market the last
four years. But sometimes Prospero does make it easy. And, you know, that's what I really
appreciate about what we've built. And, you know, you can see it in the reviews, you can hear how
people talk about it, right? Obviously, they're going to be talking about when it was easiest for them.
But even when it's not just creating kind of like dead obvious things to some people, which is like so rare, I've found in the rest of my career.
And I'm really proud I built something like this that could make my life easier.
And other people's a lot of the time.
But, you know, the one thing that I always promise to people,
and I'll close to this, is just, like, use it for a bit.
And if it doesn't help you get better, I'd be surprised.
We just aim to help people improve.
I've never had anybody come back to me and said,
you're wrong, George, every time I've said that.
So I encourage you, you know, take on that challenge.
Tell me if it doesn't make you better,
you'd be the first person.
I love that, George.
Actually, I have a crowdsourced question here
from one of our listeners.
Just downloaded Prospero.
Is there a high-level video somewhere
that explains, you know, best practices
and how to use the app, how to get started?
You might have skipped past it.
It's supposed to come on your first download, but I will post it here.
There's tons of videos that we post at the top of our newsletter.
I mean, I just recommend the newsletter, you know, first and foremost to just get acclimated.
But at the at the top of every newsletter, we have this thing that I'm about to post that has just like it's our short intro.
And it's just got like videos, videos, documents, everything you could imagine.
I'm posting it in the comments because I don't already have it as an X thing.
But if you don't see it,
you can also just feel free to DM as well.
It's there now.
I might have lied and said I have one more question.
And if you know me at this point,
I'm full of questions.
But this is another interesting one.
Do you have any patents, pending patents protected IP as a part of this?
This is coming from a listener as well.
Yeah, we have one completed patent.
That's actually a pretty broad-based AI signaling patent with our partner at NYU, Bud Mishra.
And then, you know, there's another one that is still in process, even though it's like,
I think like seven years old now, I think we're getting closer to getting it.
We were actually really early to the evolving neural nets game.
So yeah, like that's become a lot more commonplace,
but it's a different construction than an LLM.
We use basically a fitness selection process to
figure out the right feature sets to build,
the right algorithms,
hyperparameter tuning to do,
and actually a feedback self-improvement loop of the whole system.
It has some cool things,
including something we call islanding,
where let's say on its own,
it could derive sectors or sub-sectors that it's not as accurate doing,
and basically use more of its compute to like solve for that island
and spend less compute on, you know,
other quote unquote islands
that it already does better on.
So yeah, we've been building the IP portfolio
for a long time
and we will look to continue to do that.
I think some of our new stuff we might file as well.
Yeah, I love that piece there for sure. And definitely, obviously, some interested
potential investors in the audience asking the right questions here. And it's great to have
you on here with us, George. George, I appreciate your time. Make sure you follow that Prospero
account. There's a lot of great stuff that comes out from that account itself. George,
appreciate your time. Big shout out to the whole panel up here, of course, for joining us.
You see Holmars up here.
You see Sam Solid.
Jordan was with us for a little bit.
Evan and Shai up here, maybe a little bit busy, but they were listening in.
I know I saw some messages that they were listening in because very, very involved.
There's a shot from Evan right there, a little emoji.
So love that piece as well.
George, thanks for your time. I appreciate you. Thanks for having me. This is always great.
And of course, last call, those links are up top. There's still a little bit of time. You don't have
to rush, of course, but definitely put this on your radar. That's what we like to do here on
these spaces, of course, and see two people actually went in and invested during this space
again. So love seeing that. A lot of enthusiasm here. Definitely check out
both those links. I called out in case you missed it, called out the link for the crowdfund itself.
And then also if you scroll over one spot, there's a link. If you fill out that form,
you can get a chance or you can get in to try out that new alert service, the premium paid service for free.
So definitely check out both of those two up top.
And we appreciate Prospero and the team joining us today.
And to close things out here at the end of the day, I'll call on my co-host Stock Talk,
who had an all-time 45-minute rant earlier that was just absolutely fantastic.
Hot hand.
I'm going to call you hot hand talk over
there uh stock talk any uh any last things from you today before we uh shut down the space
no we'll see you guys next week but i mean hell of a week record record week for me so
i think you know this is a market that as high as we are going there are still
you know just like amcor which i spent 45 minutes talking about today, which I spent 45 minutes talking about when Evan asked me about it two weeks ago.
There's stocks like that that just deserve to trade higher.
You know, the S&P 500 could be 10, 20 percent higher, and there's still going to be stocks that deserve to trade higher. And if you want to super perform the market when it's at nosebleed levels or whether it's
at the lows in April, I always say this, go look at my performance charts.
I don't just share my percentage performance.
I share the performance charts.
You can see the dips.
You can see the peaks and troughs.
And what you'll notice is I get aggressive when markets are unfavorable,
not because I'm buying the dips in the broader markets, but because I know the names that I own.
And a lot of you were on the space yesterday when I was having a debate with Big Bear,
and we were talking and going back and forth. And we went through this conversation of having conviction and how having a micro focus,
in my opinion, will make you a much better trader or investor, because there's always
going to be a macro story in the background.
There'll always be one.
Even if the economy and the market are rip-roaring simultaneously, which actually is
rarer than people would think, but even when that's happening, there will still be a narrative
that something might happen. And overwhelmingly, nothing happens, right? 80% of the time,
nothing happens. And in those states, markets tend to trend up because the capital has to go
somewhere, right? Businesses are growing, people are making money, they need to deploy that capital
and invest that capital. And so markets trend higher. And all the meanwhile, more and more
accounts are opening, more and more participants are entering the market, access is becoming more
and more democratized, smaller and smaller amounts amounts are being you could forget about fractional shares just the access to additional people who have who
would never be able to invest 20 years ago is changing and advancing markets it's just more
money you don't need to be a genius to figure that out you know and a thousand dollars in every
baby's portfolio that's born in the united states what do you think that's going to do to percentage home ownership of stocks?
You know, people wonder why the U.S. government stands behind the United States stock market and
stimulates it to no end, right? The government, the United States government as an institution,
I'm not just talking about the Fed. I'm talking about Congress, the president and the Fed will never tolerate a depressed stock market for very long.
You know, no, they're not necessarily always watching day to day action, although I think, frankly, Trump is.
But, you know, the point is, is that the American interest in the stock market, the citizens interest in the stock market is the driving factor for the government's interest in it.
And as a product of that, it like people talk about the companies being too big to fail.
The stock market is the entire ecosystem.
It drives value of dollars. You think the government wants that revenue stream to disappear on a $55 trillion asset? Of course not. It's necessary for innovation, too, because all the capital inflow into these companies is spent by the companies.
The raises they do and the offerings they do, they spend this money.
They spend your money, investor money, right?
To what end?
To make new products and to advance.
So the stock market, to me, is frankly one of the most important engines in the world.
It is what creates, allows for innovation, creates so much value.
And the government will never allow it to fail.
When this baby policy goes into effect, U.S. household ownership of stocks is going to trend to 100%.
It is going to trend to 100%.
That's just logic.
You're sitting at 68% or 69% homeownership already, let alone the other 45 million robin hood accounts
that have yet to be open that will be open to the next five years just in america by the way
not to mention the democratization of access to brokerages that's spreading all over the country
so it's like you want to bet against the stock market go for it but it's not going to be a
very good bet for very long and i think the last two two years even the last five like whenever i say last
five people are like oh what about 2022 okay fucking factor in 2022 factor in the drawdown
if you were net long for the last five years even through 2022 you the gain is ridiculous i mean
the meta meta off the 23 lows me and emperor just about this earlier, is it's like a 10x off the lows.
Meta, a multi-trillion dollar company.
We're not even at a small cap, right?
Let alone the gains that have been in small caps, right?
Forget about in years and just in months.
So like what?
You're leaving all that opportunity on the table because you're worried that something might happen?
Yeah, something might always fucking happen.
You're never going to be able to predict Black Swan.
Stop playing that game.
Just dance with the music, focus on the micro, pick good stocks, and you'll do well in the markets. And when the bad shit happens,
you cross that bridge when you come to it. That's my philosophy. And that's Peter Lynch's philosophy.
And that's, I think, what everyone's philosophy should be.
Yeah, I agree. I agree. I mean, it's outlandish because I just did an interview with Michael Cow, who's a chief strategist of Yieldbacks.
I mean, he's been in Wall Street for a long time. And one of the things that he said that you've been saying too, a lot of people have been saying is that, look, markets don't have big days like today
and just have a catastrophic 20% drop in like two weeks from now.
Like there, you will know, you will know fundamentally
and you will know technically when it is time to put the helmet on and chill.
I still remember every day that SP was trading below 200 moving average,
almost everyone was on here, including yourself, like someone below 20 moving average. And I think
that was probably the time when I heard from you the least, because you're just like, did you do
anything today? No, went to the gym, bought some groceries, just like hung out all day. You know,
it's like, well, what else is there to do? Get there to do get you with get with uh going like calls for next week when the market's dropping like two to three percent
intraday it's like that was a scary time like i wasn't trying to play any crazy options i was just
holding the shares adding you know slowly adding everything you know i just adding the portfolio
whatever i didn't buy anything during that dip and look at my performance i know i know i just
held you didn't you didn't need to buy them you didn't need to buy the bottom. You didn't need
to buy anything. People think they need to be heroes to make money in markets. Let me tell
you something as a guy that does this for a living and sells a subscription. This is not in my
interest to tell you this. Okay. It is not hard. It is not complicated to make money in markets. It requires a stomach way more than a brain, way more by by a magnitude more.
OK, I know idiots that pick great stocks.
I have friends in real life, all love to them that are not smart people that pick stocks that go insane.
It's not hard to pick a stock that goes up.
I said this earlier. It's not difficult.
Do not pretend like it is.
But great stock picking is about super performance.
That's a different level, okay?
If you want to super perform, you have to put in the work.
And so you have to just decide the person you want to be in the markets.
Like, do you want to be the person that puts in a lot of work and finds stocks?
Like, again, I talked earlier about Amcor.
Go search the ticker,
don't take my word for it. Not a single person on a platform with millions of people even mentioned
the ticker before I mentioned it. If you want to have find stocks like that before anyone finds
them, you have to do the work. And LLMs aren't going to get you there either. And that an LLM
didn't give me that stock. I had to deep dive very, very specific questions and industries to even get to it right and if you don't think
that way then you're not going to super perform but you can outperform you don't need to be a
genius to outperform it's not hard it is not hard you just buy stocks and hold them like holy shit
people over complicate it they're in and out and worried and panicked. I mean, Omar's up here.
Tesla's stock is a great example of this.
So many people just can't just hold the stock, right?
And they're like, oh, it's up 20%.
I mean, every stock is like this.
Shareholder bases are impatient.
And they think that you have to do some sort of magic to get winning positions.
If you understand what's going on,
you, if you study themes relatively well,
you're a relatively smart person,
you have an understanding of what's happening
in technology and where it's going
and what companies might win.
And they're, you could imagine their value,
them growing into their valuations,
even if it doesn't show up on the P right away.
That kind of stock picking wins in climates like
this. And look, maybe the next five years will be different than the last five. I don't think
they will be. There'll be market crashes along the way. There'll be corrections along the way.
I'm not saying there won't be. I'm not saying we're going up in a straight line. I think the
next five years are going to continue to be very speculative and very technology focused
from the investment side and from the global development side too in my opinion we'll see
what happens but even if they're not right you look at the last five years you have to be impressed
with what retail did in a scenario where the markets continue to act like this where forward
potential is rewarded the way that it's being rewarded in the last five years in
markets, then a lot of institutions, a lot of guys from the dot-com era are going to have to sit down
and accept that conditions may be changing because the amount of retail volume is becoming increasingly influential.
The Robinhood accounts are growing in size. Look at the data. The kids are getting richer.
And not only are they getting richer, there are more kids. Every year they're opening,
Robinhood's announcing millions of new accounts opened, right? These are all people who are, I mean, maybe they're not all new to the market, right? Whatever, say 20% of them,
I mean, I think that's low, but whatever, half of them are new to the market or 40% of the market,
whatever. Millions of new accounts, and they all have money too. And like this, this retail herd think, whatever you think of it, has worked for five years.
Tesla, NVIDIA, Palantir, Robinhood, these are not Wall Street darlings in their early stages.
These were retail darlings in their very early stages.
NVIDIA was a loved retail darling stock before AI was ever even a thing because they make
GPUs for video games that the gamers loved
okay and and you know how many kids on reddit have like 20 000 equity gains on nvidia have you seen
the amount of posts how many guys on wall street were calling for nvidia like their kids on reddit
were saying like dude they make the best graphics cards in the world like this gotta count for
something like they have to have some kind of knowledge and compute i mean no no it's funny Like their kids on Reddit were saying like, dude, they make the best graphics cards in the world. Like this got to count for something.
Like they have to have some kind of knowledge and compute.
I mean, no, no.
It's funny because the thesis sounds funny, but like in a way they were right.
Right?
Like, yeah, they didn't call the AI trend.
But like, does that matter?
What matters in investment?
Performance matters.
Right?
Like you see guys now, they scoff at the Palantir valuation.
I scoff at the Palantir valuation. I don't own it. Right? I have great friends that own it. But they scoff at the palantir valuation i scoff at the palantir valuation i don't own it right i have great friends that own it but i scoff at the valuation but i'm not i don't mock palantir investors i'm like dude y'all fucking killed it what am i gonna
say like you 10x in two or three years like what am i my my cousin is a huge palantir investor and
i tell him all the time like dude bravo for holding for that 10X. Like, what the hell? What conviction? Like, what else are you going to do to applaud that, right?
It's almost 20X. Yeah, exactly. Whatever. I mean, insane returns is what I'm saying. Whatever
timeframe you bought it four years ago, three years ago, 10X, 20X, like insane returns, right?
And how many guys on Wall Street were calling for that one? Palantir was $10. The answer is none.
I read all the Wall Street research. The answer is none. And I'm not dismissing Wall Street research. I talk all the
time, but it's valuable. What I'm saying is, is these guys get into the story when the stock's
up four or five or six or seven or a thousand percent from where it was when retail saw the
story. So yeah, they're speculators. Yeah, they overpay for companies. Yeah, maybe you think the
research is superficial, but it's getting to the point now where retail controls enough money that their opinions matter more than they did.
controlled by institutions. Now 40% of market volume and a large portion of short-term options
volume is controlled by retail, anywhere from 20 to 25%. That's a fifth of short-term options volume,
40% of notional equity inflows. That's a lot of money, dude. That is trillions of dollars,
trillions. And still we're acting like retail is the mouse in the game i mean i think it's
time for institutions to stop acting like that because they're gonna get burned i mean if gme
wasn't enough of a lesson right and i don't i never owned to share gamestop but if gamestop
wasn't enough of a lesson then they'll find out in a in a more brutal slow burn way as these stocks
just stay up right like rob Like Robinhood fell to,
and I'm a big Robinhood shareholder,
but Robinhood fell to like, what, 30,
whatever it was during the April correction.
It's like 120 bucks now.
Like all these guys have been saying,
wait till the next market correction
and the retail stocks will be dead.
So all these gurus were saying in 21. Okay, go back. And even some of
the best investors in the world, actually, legacy investors were saying this. Like, yeah, yeah,
yeah, retail killed it in 2020 and 2021. But like, just wait for the next market downturn,
and you'll see millions of accounts disappear. I remember when Robinhood was first getting,
got there, had that close to 10 million account a year. And then they're on CNBC. And I remember when Robinhood was first getting, got their, get, had that close to 10 million account a year.
And then, um, they were on CNBC and I remember this clip.
I don't remember who it was, but it was one of these legacy guys that's always on CNBC. And he, he said, yeah, just wait till the next market correction.
Robinhood's accounts will get cut in half.
He's like, cause these are all retail guys that don't know what they're doing.
And like, they'd never been in a euphoric market and just wait till the next correction.
Right.
Like what? Robinhood's accounts like, they've never been in a euphoric market and just wait till the next correction, right? Like what?
Robinhood's accounts like have quadrupled since that day.
Right?
And the net account values are all up across the board, like skyrocketed.
Right?
You look at their AUM growth on existing members, you'd be like, what the fuck?
These kids are just killing it.
Like they're printing money.
So, I mean, it's retail is becoming a
beast and it's going to have to be reckoned with. And retail stock picks are going to be able to be
floated now because there's going to be buyers at any valuation for some of these names.
Like Tesla's valuation has been unreasonable for years, but they keep getting bought up on
sentiment. Why? Because the shareholder base isn't looking at the P.E. ratio.
And the same thing goes for Palantir, right?
Like Palantir has every reason to have fallen 50 percent at any moment.
And it hasn't because the shareholders of that company believe that they're going to be the leader in secret software for the next generation and that no one is going to be able to challenge them
and they're going to be in a league of their own and they believe that so wholeheartedly that they
won't sell it at whatever insane valuation it's at today you know so you either look at that and say
uh tulip mania which is what the dot-com bubble guys are saying, or you look at that and say the market's attitude
is changing as a product of the constituency changing, which I think is a much more reasonable
conclusion. We've had five years for the quote-unquote retail bubble to pop, right?
And I have a feeling that whenever the next crash is
and there will be a crash, there was always a crash every five to seven years. There's always
a crash. There will be a crash. I have a feeling after the next crash, these stocks will come right
back up. Right back up. I think the V-shaped recoveries will be in those market leading names.
Will they get killed in the crash? Yeah, they'll get killed.
They'll go down 40%, 50%, maybe even 60%.
But they'll be the first names that get bought up on the other end of it.
And then Wall Street will be sitting there, scratching their chins, saying,
holy shit, these guys just won't go away.
And I think that's what's going to happen in the next five years.
So we'll see.
The space is recorded, so maybe come back in five years.
All right, everyone.
Download the recording of this afternoon.
Five years from now, we're going to come back to Stock Talk
to see if we can do five years of 200% plus in a row.
Whoa, whoa.
Whoa.
I don't want to meet that benchmark.
I didn't expect it.
Raging bull market. Come on. I didn't expect it. Raging bull market.
Come on.
I honestly didn't think this year would be crazy.
I thought it would be a modest year, but they just stuff worked.
You know, a lot of stuff worked.
Well, a lot of people, I mean, if we go back and think about going into January, even February,
a new all-time highs, most people were saying, you know, uh what a one percent two percent type of year for
the s&p oh yeah people thought it was gonna be like a red year or something yeah dude i thought
i even thought going into the year there's a chance that it'd be flat but
i think the beauty of what i said earlier about just staying long
is that you don't have to worry about that. You know, like I think somebody yesterday, I think Big Ben asked me,
or is it Big, sorry, what is it?
Is it Big Bear?
Big Bear.
Big Bear, sorry.
I'm sorry, I butchered that.
Big Bear AI.
Big Bear AI.
Big Bear AI.
He asked me where I thought the S&P 500 was going.
And I don't know if you guys remember my response to him.
I said, I don't give a shit.
That doesn't matter to me.
I never think about that.
Like, if you're the type of investor who
thinks you need to know, have an S&P 500 target for the end of the year to win in markets,
you're totally and completely and utterly wrong. Buy uptrending stocks and hold them.
That's it. Of all the rants I give, I've done so many hour and two hour long rants on these
spaces over the years. The spaces the show has been running for two years.
We have thousands of people to listen every day.
You guys know my style.
Okay.
If I had to summarize everything, buy stocks that are trending up in good industries, in
strong themes and just hold them.
That's it.
And when they start trending down, then you have to ask yourself questions. That's
the hard part. The hard part is not holding. The hard part is knowing how to distinguish the story
when they aren't uptrending, when they are breaking down. Right. To say to yourself,
yeah, I have conviction. I believe the trend will recover because of X, Y and Z. And in some
instances, you won't be able to make that case to yourself. And that's when you know you should sell.
In the instances where the trend is breaking in a stock, the technical trend is breaking in a stock,
then you visit your thesis. And you say, is the thesis still intact? Are the reasons I bought
this name, X, Y, and Z, still true? If they are, you keep it. If not, then you say, okay, this could be a name that maybe I don't
own anymore. I sell and move on to another name that is more interesting to me or a higher
conviction to me. But if a stock is trending up and your thesis is intact and you sell,
that is foolish, in my opinion. No matter what your time horizon, your trader or investor doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter.
Traders sell way too early all the time.
So it doesn't matter what your style is.
If you sell an uptrending stock
that has a good story that you understand,
that might be the hard part too.
Make sure you understand that story
and actually have done your work.
And it's technically trending up
and you sell, you're literally crazy. Just like giving away money giving free money uptrending stocks don't stop
uptrending until they stop you know what i mean like you'll see it it isn't there's no guesswork
involved you see it like when when the s&p 500 breaks its uptrend, you better be fucking worried.
Hasn't happened in a long time, but you better be worried if that happens.
You know, every break of the S&P 500 uptrend, what happens?
It gets bought up in a V-shape every time.
Right.
So when that doesn't happen, that's when you need to start asking yourself questions about your thesis, what the industry looks like.
Has the competition changed? Has the margin profile changed?
You know, is your confidence in the long term positioning the same?
Are they executing on the products the way you thought they would at the timeline you thought they would be like judgmental?
You know, the two analogies I always use is like you treat your portfolio either like a football coach or like a playboy.
Two analogies I always use is like you treat your portfolio either like a football coach
or like a playboy.
Like if the stocks aren't working for you, if they aren't pleasing you, if they aren't
rewarding you, then they should not be held.
There's opportunity cost involved in that, you know, and people don't get that.
They're just like, oh, well, you know, buy and hold is the strategy, right?
And even I just said that.
But there's nuance involved in that, right?
You don't just buy and hold something that doesn't
perform. I mean, talk to Intel investors. I mean, I know they had a great time today,
but talk to them over the last 10 years, right? Or so many other stocks that have done nothing
for 10 years. Could you imagine that? Could you imagine having a multimillion dollar portfolio
and be having like it full ported or having half of it in a stock that does nothing for a decade when the NASDAQ doubles
in a year?
You could have bought Intel in 98
at the same price it's back to today.
You said you could have bought Intel in 98
at the same price?
1998 at the same price it is today.
Exactly.
Imagine loving stocks
and buying Intel and holding it out
for the last 20 years.
Holy shit, that would have sucked. You know? Imagine loving stocks and buying Intel and holding that for the last 20 years.
Like, holy shit, that would have sucked.
You know?
So, yeah, some stocks suck.
And if you don't recognize that soon enough, you're going to be one of those investors that has, frankly, wasted capital.
That could be used elsewhere.
What do you think about that?
When you think about wasted capital, for example, dead money you know how do you manage that and what are your thoughts on that because like you're kind of you're hitting on it right now but
you have to manage it by conviction level you know like you have to you have to say like there
are stocks that i own that go through periods of underperformance relative to my portfolio. Like currently, I generally like to run a book with sub 15 positions.
Right now I have 17 positions and I have seven core positions in those 17 positions.
Right.
And so the way I manage it is the non-core positions are by nature, lower conviction. They're lower weighting.
And they're also like, you know, they're, they tend to be more flippantly taken. Like
I don't do weeks or months of research on non-core positions. They're just stocks that maybe I like
the chart. I kind of like the story or the theme or whatever. They're stocks that I don't intend
to hold for years, basically the non-core positions. And so at any given moment, my
portfolio can downsize from 17 to seven positions in a flash because I'm not married, married to tend to hold for years, basically, the non-core positions. And so at any given moment, my portfolio
can downsize from 17 to seven positions in a flash because I'm not married to any of the other 10
stocks, right? There's only seven core positions with deep cost-based advantages that I'm going to
hold no matter what. And so I don't want to say no matter what, because I mean, if the thesis
changes, I could sell a core position too. But there's seven stocks I'm going to hold through most market volatility is what I'll say.
But with the others, there's no room for complacency.
Like if a stock that I own that's a non-core position gaps up, let's say it has a great earnings report.
It gaps up 30%.
I'm like, okay, maybe I trim a few contracts or trim a few shares into like a big move like that. And then I'll say, all right, I'm going to give this a chance to consolidate now at or near
the highs after this catalyst, right? Maybe it's good earnings, maybe it's a PR or whatever.
So I'll give it, you know, a couple of weeks to consolidate. And then I'll say, okay, you know,
how long has it been consolidating? If the stock consolidates for like four and a half months
and does nothing,
there's a good chance I'm going to sell it
if it's a non-core position.
If the stock forms a high tight flag
and starts ripping again two weeks later,
I'm staying in that.
To me, that's suggestive
that buyers are aggressive on that name.
They aren't going to wait for it to consolidate
and they're piling back in.
And in some cases some cases it's
if it's consolidating for good reason and i think there's an under covered or undiscovered part of
the story then i will allow it to consolidate right like there's certain stocks like um that
i know the story isn't found yet and so i'm cool with the consolidation like you know amcor the last week
i was like i know this is going to move when they find it and then boom it's up 20 percent
right because i just like no because i mean i'm experienced but i also do a lot of work to where
sometimes i just like i'm very very very confident and i size it accordingly and then i also like i'm
very patient i don't let like day-to-day volatility bother me.
Like I am never,
ever bothered if a stock's down three or four,
even 5%,
never.
I don't even think about it.
Right.
Cause I,
my theses are so solid that like,
that doesn't bother me day-to-day volatility.
Where I do start worrying is when like weekly or monthly charts breaking
down,
then I'll go like,
look into it and be like,
is there something I missed?
You know,
or I'll start like reevaluating the thesis.
I honestly let price guide most of my reanalysis decisions. So if I go and revisit a thesis,
like, let's say I buy a stock and then like a couple of weeks later, price isn't really
going the way I thought it would. And I'm looking at the monthly and weekly charts and it's breaking
some key support levels. I'll go back and be like, did I miss something in my research?
Or did I overlook something?
Or is there like a debt problem
or a cash burn problem
that maybe I wasn't cognizant of?
That's the type of questions I'll ask.
And sometimes there is.
And I'll be like, oh, dude,
I didn't know they had this term sheet
on their last debt obligation.
Like, I'm not fucking, I'm not gonna,
I don't wanna service that.
I'm out, so I'll just sell it.
And then I'll be like, that's what the price was trying to tell me.
Like, people who think technical analysis is voodoo are idiots.
They're fucking idiots.
Period.
There's no other way to put it.
They just don't know how to read a chart.
That's the truth.
They don't know how to read a chart.
Price has memory.
Shareholders have memory.
Shareholders are human beings for the most part. I mean, there's algos, but they're human beings for the most part. They have literal memory. Shareholders have memory. Shareholders are human beings for the most part.
I mean, there's algos, but they're human beings for the most part.
They have literal memory.
They have cost basis.
These things are communicated through price.
And very often, you know, this happens with strong stocks, momentum stocks all the time
that are about to commit offerings.
You see price, super strong, relatively strong price action fading three or four days right before an offering.
Like experienced traders know this.
Like there is, if you want to be, if you want to super perform the markets, you have to know how to read a chart, period, end of story.
There's no way around it.
But when you're looking at like a non-core position, you're like a trading position, it's breaking down.
If you're not asking yourself questions and you're just being complacent in those moments, that's foolish too.
Because any stock can go down 20% for any reason, no matter how big.
Trillion dollar stocks can go down 20%.
Tesla has gone down 20% many times for all sorts of reasons.
So has even stocks like Amazon have had moments like that where they're down 10, 12, 13, 14%
on a given day.
So it doesn't matter how big the stock is. Anything, gap downs can happen on a stock for any given number of reasons.
You have to know how to anticipate that they're coming in order to be an effective manager of
your position. You have to. Otherwise, you're just like clueless. You're just being a clueless
idiot if you're not even attempting to anticipate those things. You're just leaving money on the
table. And I also feel that way about people
who indiscriminately add dips
because they're like, I'm an investor,
so I just average it and I just DCA.
That's so stupid.
Why not buy it like places that you know
are good places to buy?
You just rather buy randomly
because you don't care about your money, I guess?
I don't know.
This is like silliness.
So it's little things like that, I think.
And, you know, for me, consolidation is allowed,
again, in the simplest terms,
based on my conviction level
and or based on the stock's exposure level,
mostly, is the short answer to your question.
Yeah.
I mean, on that topic, probably going to roll off soon.
I might join that treasury edge that Charlie's got going on.
They're talking about BM&R in there.
I mean, Tesla, calling the top in Tesla is really tough.
Calling on the bottom of Tesla, I'm not saying that it's easy,
but it's a lot easier to call the bottom of Tesla on the top.
And it's basically when you get every single person being so bearish Tesla
that the argument becomes crazy,
and then they all float back when the Tesla's riding up.
I mean, I think Tesla is going to make no all-time high.
I think if the market continues to stay bullish, I think Tesla's going to make a new all-time high. Like, I think if the market continues
to stay bullish,
I think it's going to be going.
Oh, my God.
It's right.
We were just talking about it
for Sparrow.
So bullish for Sparrow, too.
Yeah,
and Elon's going to keep going up.
Elon's thrown a billion dollars
I mean,
at it on top of that.
Like,
come on, dude.
Oh, my God.
For fun.
Who could do that
besides Elon?
I like the ones
where they say,
like, that Dara sold and Elon bought.
Even though that's not a really big deal that he sold,
but it was just like...
It's just so funny.
Can you imagine?
Where was the sentiment before?
The sentiment was not like this.
He threw in a billion dollars, right?
Was it like the 330s area or something like that?
He made a quarter of a billion dollars
on that.
And his brother's going to vote for it too, which I love.
I fucking love that. It's such a fuck you to that
judge. I love that.
I love that they did that. What do you think about that, Omar?
That him and
his brother are going to vote? You like that?
They're going to vote on the comp plan?
Yeah.
Oh, really? i thought they were accusing
themselves no you didn't see that it was alex because alexandria that posted it i think yeah
she like highlighted in one of the disclosures that they're both gonna be eligible to vote
that's why he bought the shares that's interesting you don't like it you don't like that i mean uh
i don't think it really makes a difference either way, honestly. I think there's pretty broad support.
Either way, overwhelmingly, yeah.
I think they could recuse themselves and it would probably still pass.
Yeah, I mean, based on what the chart's looking like for Tesla,
for me, what the market's trying to say is I think they think Elon's going to win on this one too.
Because where are the dead bodies like where are the
they're not using lidar so where are the dead bodies omar do you know where the dead bodies
are yeah i mean it's true i mean they've been operating all summer safely um their service
area that they handle is now bigger than waymo's, amazingly. Their two service areas are bigger
than Waymo's five service areas by area. So, you know, Tesla, I totally agree with the comment that
it's a lot easier to call the bottom than the top. Because when you get on a run like this, it
kind of starts trading like a meme stock. Whatever you think is a stretch as sort of a fair
fundamental valuation, add in like two teaspoons of crazy on top of that. And that's probably where
it's going to top out. And then it'll probably correct a little bit and go through some price discovery, but probably end up staying at a much higher
level than you would expect right now.
Yeah, I mean, you know, I think the number one inhibitor of performance in this market,
and this is true with people who miss Tesla, with people who missed nvidia the people who missed valentine robin and every all these other wonderful performers is
inhibition by valuation like people just don't get that there are so many young investors entering the market that just don't care if they get paid
in a year. Like they don't care. There's these 22, 23, 25, even all the way up to, I would say,
40 year olds are like, yeah, I'm down to hold it for 10 years. I'm down to see what happens.
I'm down to see if they build an
optimist program and deploy the whole fleet and see what the valuation looks like then.
Like there are people that are just down to do that. And it's defying people's logic because
like many of these legacy guys can't understand it. They're like, you know, they read Intelligent
Investor by Ben Graham and they're like, I don't get it. Like you're not looking at the valuation.
You don't see the P's at 150. Like like how are you buying that like why are you buying
that it's gonna crash like i'm gonna short it you know and how does that work out it just never works
just never works like that philosophy versus
i'm gonna buy an uptrending stock like what has been what has made more money in the last 25 years
well i mean you don't have to just look at a PE as an absolute value. You could also look at it
as a rate of change. If the PE has been decreasing and then it has an inflection point and bottoms
out and then starts to increase, the stock is going to go up. I'm not saying that's how the
SP500 works, but it tracks it pretty closely on a pretty tight correlation there.
If the growth rate of the S&P 500 keeps increasing, then that means that the stock market is going to go up.
And it has been that case.
The growth rate was forecasted to be going down toward the April dip, and then they started revising it upwards.
And I'm not sure if that revism and the estimates were following the price action, but they do tell a
little bit of a story too. But the market's likely going to front run it though. Man, I just think
the market knows that like, as much as we talk about AI, it's not even embedded into the real
economy yet. Like it's not even really embedded dude. Like wait till it's like AI is actually
meaningfully deployed at every business
in the country you don't think that's going to drive a productivity boost and i'm not talking
about like some future magical version i'm talking about like today's llms meaningfully deployed in a
user-friendly way to every business in america that doesn't affect productivity. Like I would dare somebody make that argument.
That's been my general thought is like everyone,
when the AI conversations started happening,
of course, a lot of people jumped straight to the,
oh, but jobs are going to be lost and jobs and jobs.
But my thoughts started going after getting that initial out of the way.
My thought was, well, StockTalk, if I could do just 10 things before, now I can do 15.
Is that not inherently better for the business?
It just makes me more productive as an employee.
Exactly.
It makes your employees more productive, even if you're not talking about replacement effect, which there will be that too.
There will be employees that are just outright replaced by fixed cost. But take both of those into effect
as a compound effect, right? Employees that are replaced by robotics over time outright.
And then on top of that, the employees that aren't replaced becoming magnitudes more efficient. I
mean, I'm magnitudes more efficient in my job since AI. Employees becoming magnitudes
more efficient with AI. And then on top of that, top of all of that, you have the productivity
boom from actual AI deployment, like the things that they do. When you combine those three things,
it's like you would literally have to grasp for straws to make the argument that there won't be a
productivity boost. And I think the markets know that the market's very smart, you know, like
if, if the market felt like this bubble, it wanted to pop this bubble, it would have popped it. It
tried to pop it in the tariff thing. That's a pretty good effort. If you want to talk about
like almost crashes, that was pretty close. There's a 30% peak to trough decline. That's a pretty good effort. If you want to talk about like almost crashes, that was pretty close.
There's a 30% peak to trough decline.
That's not like common.
I hope people don't think that like the April sell-off is common.
If you're new investors or traders, I hope you don't think that happens like all the time.
It does not.
30% steep drops like that.
Like keep in mind, we went back to back, right? We went February, knife, subtle recovery, tariff announcement in April, big ass knife, right?
That is not like, that doesn't happen all the time in the S&P.
That is like a rare event where you get that much selling in such a short period of time.
So what happened?
Not only did we get a V-shaped recovery, we got a V-shaped recovery and ripped through the previous highs.
Like we didn't even wait. Right. So that's an attempt to break the momentum.
That is like a very good attempt by the Bears. Like if you want to give the Bears a round of applause, that's the best attempt they've made since COVID to crash the market.
And they were hammering puts even into the lows. You look at the flow for puts
into the lows of the April correction. They were hammering puts. They were chasing it down. They
wanted to crash it. Right. They wanted to send the S&P 500 down 40 to 50 percent, which is a
legitimate crash. And they could have. They could have, but what happened? The deep seek story softened.
Then Trump started backing off on tariffs. The risk profile went from 95 because let's be real,
if tariffs were really at 50% for everyone, the economy would have crashed instantly.
everyone in the economy would have crashed instantly. So the risk profile went from 95
to like 75 in a week. And people started running, not walking, running back to the market leading
stocks. Some names in a two day period made 40 to 50% moves in a two day period off the lows.
Some market leading names, 50%. These are hyper-liquid stocks we're talking
about. You know, 10-plus billion dollars, like large caps, made 40% to 50% moves in two sessions
coming off the lows. That is not people, that's not like a soft bid. You don't see that at fake
bottoms. That was people saying, oh, fuck, tariffs are not going to be what we thought they were.
And on top of that, this deep seek thing was fucking bullshit.
And then they're running back to these names like, you know, that's that's an attempt that failed to break the momentum.
And there will be others. There will be other sell offs.
There'll be some bad news about AI one day. All those stocks get sold off 20 percent.
There'll be people that sell them and there'll be people that sell them and
there'll be people that hold them through that and i'll leave it up to you to guess who will
fare better but anyway i've done fucking enough well how long have i talked today i probably talked
for three fucking hours today i've talked about so much shit today there was so much going on
this week and so many amazing moves just a ton of stuff but yeah yeah you think that with earnings isn't done that the weeks will
be quiet but clearly not yeah i mean look at all these look at all these high-flying stocks every
other day though like the broadening out of this market's incredible it's unbelievable it's
unbelievable feels like there's so much money to be spent still feels like that you know and like even if you even if you don't think
anecdotally it feels like that i brought these stats up yesterday net inflows in the market net
sorry net exposure on the market is still not at let alone all-time highs not even at 2025 highs
and look what the price is you know so if you're a're a manager who doesn't have the exposure you want right now,
you have two things you're thinking right now.
Either I need to get it now or I have to pray for a pullback.
And often in those moments where people are like,
dude, the market has to cool off,
those are the moments often where it doesn't.
Because what you would do is you add fuel to the
fire, right? The people who are like, oh, it has to cool off. Come on, this is ridiculous. This
is getting ridiculous. Those people, what are they doing? They're taking exposure off the table.
And very often they're either adding hedges or they're just outright adding put exposure or
whatever. That offsets exposure balances in the market and allows for more upside because less people are on one side of the trade.
So this happens very frequently with CTA positioning.
People laugh at CTAs and mock them because CTA positioning often follows price, right?
Like when price is going up, it goes up.
When price is going down, it goes down.
And so very often at the lows, CTAs are very underexposed.
And what happens is markets recover so quickly, as you know. And so because they recover so quickly, very often people get trapped and they can't pick up pick their exposure back up quickly enough, you know, because they'd be picking it up at much higher prices in many cases.
It complicates it for institutions.
And what often ends up happening, this happened last year at the end of the year as well, is that you're forced to chase.
You're forced to.
Because if you don't, then at the end of the year, your returns are going to look like shit.
Because the market ripped and you didn't pick up enough exposure.
It's pretty simple.
You don't even know a lot about institutions to understand that.
And so that's part of why I think about volume so much and focus on volume so much.
But I find it hard to believe the market is in a state of euphoria when net exposure is not again, let alone not at all time highs, but not even at the yearly highs.
And on top of that, hedged inflows are at five year highs.
that hedged inflows are at five-year highs.
People are hedged at five-year highs,
they're buying puts,
and they don't have enough long exposure.
That's what the data tells you,
not what a person is telling you.
That's what the data tells you.
So you do what you will with that data.
That's why I've been 130% long for the last six weeks,
because this is what the data is telling me to do.
And it's paid for my portfolio.
My portfolio, we went from, and during that, remember that big pullback when those momentum
names were getting sold?
I think I was down to like 111 or something, right?
I remember you posting the draw down there and you talked about, you said once it broke,
you put the hedges on and that, you know, eased the fall a little bit, but you shared.
No, no, I'm not even talking about that drop earlier in the year i'm talking about just recently like
when the momentum oh yeah yeah yeah yeah from like 150 to like 110 or whatever it was in like
a couple of weeks you know and that during that pullback i was like i saw a lot of names i owned
that were pulling back 10 20 percent percent, my biggest waiting names.
Right. But I sat through it because I was like, dude, charts aren't breaking down.
I know the stories. I love these names. And then you look at the flip.
Now I'm up at, you know, I closed the day today at 213 percent a year today at the close today.
And that's a month and a half apart. Right.
So conviction is what matters in markets.
You want to super perform. It's about conviction. It's about do you have on the positions you have
the highest conviction on. Are you weighted properly? You know, it's meaningless if you
really like a stock and it's a one percent weighting in your portfolio. Good luck for that
ever making a difference for you. You know, But when you have a position, it's meaningful,
and you go, you know, I'm going to put 10% of my whole net worth into this.
That's how you change your life.
One of the big differences there, Stock Talk,
is when you think about, okay, coming out of the dip in April,
yeah, a lot of things got bought up,
a lot of things are on a trajectory,
but then as that piece has slowed down,
anybody that has just a regularly balanced portfolio,
you know, a lot of MAGA cap tech, stuff like that,
their performances slow down a lot.
But when you have these other names that have been outperforming the market,
that's, I mean, like what you're saying,
if I took 10 of your picks or positions and I made a 1% of my portfolio, like, is that going to make that big of a difference overall?
Probably not.
But your portfolio compared to like the S&P or compared to even if you had a basket of the Mag 7, it's vastly outperforming.
Yeah.
It could be the allocation piece yeah it's
the allocation piece exactly like you know like nebius when i bought it i bought it as an eight
percent weighting in my portfolio originally and i made some trims early on that i wish i hadn't
made but i held it as a core position um through all it, through the volatility, through the pullback back to 40,
through the jump back to 50, slides back to 48.
Like I didn't give a fuck about any of that volatility.
I just held, held, held, held out.
It's a hundred bucks now, you know?
And that was huge for my portfolio
because it's a massive weighting, right?
Nebius is now over 15% of my portfolio. And my portfolio is basically my whole net worth.
I have 90% of my net worth in my stock portfolio. So I have real estate and other investments and
physical gold, but most of my money is in stocks because it's what I do full time. And I've been
growing my account for years and years. But my point is, is that it started off as just the position that I took in May Nebius,
and is now 15% of basically my net worth. So like, that's insane, right? But that's conviction.
If I sold at any point in that, that wouldn't have happened. Let's say I sold half after a 20%
move. Like when it went from 24 to 30, if I was like, cool, most people would look at that and go,
When it went from 24 to 30, if I was like, cool, most people would look at that and go,
stock went from 24 to 30, like in, you know, in two weeks, you're not going to sell.
I was like, no, dude, honestly, I wish I could buy more. I hope it pulls back to 25. Never did.
Never did. I would have doubled my position, but it's just,
I don't know it's
it's hard to teach conviction because like the truth is is most people are lazy as fuck
it's the honest truth most people are just just way lazier than they think they are
just and it's painful to for me because like I sometimes I'll try to teach people and we have
members who I have thousands of members in our community that have been with me for years that are like students of mine most
of them are amazing students and really do try and have learned and done great in the markets and
have learned the process but sometimes there are people who you know I get a question from them I
direct them resources I explain a concept to them and they just never bother to learn it, you know? And some of these people have hundreds of thousands
of dollars, in some cases, millions of dollars in their portfolios. And like, I keep telling them,
hey, you know, maybe go learn the basics of support resistance so that you don't always
have to ask me where an ideal dip ad entry would be, or, you know, go learn this or learn this or
learn how to read a balance sheet or learn how to analyze TTM growth or whatever. And I'll direct
them not only explain it, but directing the resources. And still, like, just just a refusal
to even attempt to learn. And that's why most people, frankly, are not only mediocre at stock
picking, but just mediocre and everything, because they just don't care. Everyone wants to actually do work, and everyone just wants to do
things in an easy way. And in my community, there are people that do that, because I'm very explicit
with what I do. I tell people exactly what I'm buying, why I'm buying it. So there are some
people that just spoon feed, and I guess that's okay. I mean, they're paying me. So if you want
to pay the membership and do that, that's fine. But what I encourage people to do who listen to this show
every day and listen to me rant for hours, or for people who come in our community and see me pick
these stocks, and you're like, Oh, what are you doing? You're a crystal ball? Is this magic?
No, it's not. It's just like not being lazy. And like really caring about where I put my money.
And saying like, you know, I don't want to put my money in a measly place that's going to give me bullshit returns. I want
to put my money in places where I can be ahead of the market. You know, our slogan is ahead of the
herd. That's where I want to put my money. And I want to be able to understand the things I own
so that when some people are selling them for silly reasons, I know, hey, that's silly.
They're selling it for a silly reason. I'm going to hold it. It doesn't matter. Or in some cases,
I'll buy more. And that distinction, some people will take you years to get there. Some people can
learn it in months, but it's really a matter of just like, how much do you care about being elite
in the markets? And to me,
everyone should care a lot about it. Because for most people, a lot of your net worths are in the
markets, whether you have almost all of it, like me, or whether you have half of it, or 20% of it,
a lot of people have a lot of their net worth in the market. And if you care about that growing,
which you should for you for your family, for whoever, like you should, I don't know why you wouldn't then learn these things and stop being like lazy, stop being lazy.
Anyway, Prosper, what's up?
Yeah, I wanted to just echo something that you're saying.
And, you know, obviously our approaches are very different.
But even for me, that really wants to simplify things for people.
You know, I see a lot of a lot of the same thing and a lot of the same behaviors.
And, you know, it's just it's never going to work.
Like even AI tools can help you help you get better.
But, you know, the one answer I get all the time that, you know, even when I do have a good answer for it, I don't answer the question is what's your price target?
And my response is always the same.
Like, I don't want to give you a price target because all you're going to be doing i never do that number yeah all you're going to be doing
is looking for that number and you're just going to be pissed at me if it doesn't get to that number
and by the way like even if i give you that i'm not helping you learn at all because you're just
waiting for my number and you're never going to pick out any of the you know the technical skills
that you're talking about or anything so like yeah, even something very simple like that. If you ever find yourself
asking someone a question like that or wondering instead of being like, what price do I think it
should be at or where do I think the bottom is to your point of adding to your position,
you will never be even a good investor, let alone a great investor.
You will never be even a good investor,
let alone a great investor.
Good stuff, guys.
Good conversation.
I don't want to ruin it,
but I don't want to also just like get out,
but I really appreciate the conversation, guys.
Always a good talk.
I'll talk to you guys later.
Cheers, Sam.
We'll chat.
All right.
But wait, actually, one last question.
Are the Bills going to beat the Dolphins by at least 12 and a half points?
My brain is too tired for football.
All right.
How bad are the Dolphins or 12-point home dogs?
All right, guys.
I'll talk to you later.
I think we're in a good spot here.
I appreciate George hanging out with us uh sam hanging out
with us there omar as well and of course stock talk this might be an all-time stock talk day
right here this uh this was fantastic i'm happy man i'm in a good mood dude hey you deserve it
i like it what's uh what what kind of steak are you having this weekend i don't know we're gonna
figure it out i might have to do steak all three days on a weekend like this man there you go feel good feel good I was gonna say you get some sideline tickets
but the game's away this weekend yeah dude I need to man I'm so I was just so annoyed about the
Cowboys because I like wanted to get Cowboys season tickets and like now my mic is gone I
just feel so bummed but I mean we're playing pretty good. You can go watch them next week.
Packers at Dallas.
Yeah, I probably will. I probably will be at that game.
There you go.
All right.
Great show today. We'll be back
next week. We're off tomorrow, of course,
here on Stocks on Spaces, Monday
through Thursday, 3 p.m.
Eastern until whenever we get done.
I don't even know what time it is.
It was a four-hour show today.
What a show.
The whole thing's recorded.
And of all things that have been recorded,
this may be one to go back and listen to.
That first hour, if anybody joined in late,
the first hour we had Daniel Newman from Futurum on here
talking some great stuff.
Wolfie, Mish, and several others jumped on in that first hour. Some great breakdowns,
some great just trading advice from Stock Talk in that second hour and all the way
into the Prospero conversation and even some more bonus content here at the end. So
big shout out to the whole crew. I'm going to close this down now and
we will see you guys on this show next week on Monday. Take care, everyone. Thank you.
