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INVESTING WITH THE BOYS
Recorded: March 19, 2025 Duration: 1:01:12Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, its implications for market growth, and the potential for investment opportunities amidst economic uncertainty. Key topics included the impact of inflation forecasts, the valuation of popular stocks like Palantir, and the importance of managing risk in a volatile market.
Full Transcription
Yn ystod y cyfle, mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle. Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle, mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle. Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle. Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle, mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle. Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle. Mae'r cyfle yn ystod y cyfle. Good afternoon, everyone.
Happy Wednesday, March the 19th.
It is Wednesday at 5 Eastern, and that only means one thing here on Wolf Financial.
It means it is investing with the boys.
We have the three boys themselves all up on stage here as well as the
investing with the boys account. Make sure you check out that account.
You'll see all kinds of content coming out of there around the podcast,
including links to other platforms, if you like Spotify or YouTube, or if you want to
watch the video content right here every weekend, Saturday morning, that show comes out. But
without further ado, I'm going to introduce the boys here, Sam Solid, Logical Thesis,
and StockSavvyShy, all up on stage for another episode of investing
with the boys take it away.
Sam you want to start off with the macro?
Yeah absolutely nothing happened today there was not a major Federal Reserve announcement
not just kidding around I mean had a big day today The Fed announced that they're going to keep rates unchanged. They
decided to slow down the pace of quantitative tightening, which in this case would be letting
bonds roll off the balance sheet. I believe it was, I think it was 25 billion down to
5 billion, but they're going to keep the mortgage-backed securities steady. I forget exactly what number
that is. But anyways, they are starting to taper the quantitative
tightening, which means that it doesn't necessarily mean they're adding liquidity back to the
system.
It just means that they're letting those bonds roll out the balance sheet.
Does that necessarily change much?
Not really, but we did get the summary of economic projections today.
The last time we got it was in December.
And it looked like the fed was going to keep rates steady for a little bit longer than they expected.
And they do expect inflation to stick around a little bit longer than
they expected a few months ago.
So, I mean, I wouldn't say that this was anything of a surprise because we did
kind of see things head toward this direction as far as the data was coming out.
We see, we see the, I wouldn't say the economy is decelerating or not decelerating.
I want to say the economy is contracting.
I would just say that it was slowing down from its obscene pace.
That it's been like 3% plus GDP for quite some time.
I mean, I think a lot of people came into the, came into FOMC meeting
thing, Powell is going to rug pull everyone and the complete opposite
happened and I think throughout the day, Shores just being covered.
So you saw that massive pop throughout the day.
And then of course, at the top of the day, people expected it to pull back more and dump everything.
And that didn't really happen either.
It did happen to some extent, but that was coming from like 2% up to like one and a half percent up in the queues, which is a considerable move.
But man, we were totally oversold for a long time, probably like a few days now.
You, this was kind of expected.
I wasn't necessarily positioned in short-term calls to capture it.
But I mean, I am pretty much that long across the board.
So, you know, definitely did reap those benefits.
Didn't really make much moves today.
I really positioned myself in a pretty good place coming into today.
Cause I was just buying a dip, but at the same time, I mean, we're
kind of in the middle here, right?
Like we don't know if we're going to go up.
We don't know if we're going to go down.
We're still under 200 day moving average.
It just seems like, you know, nothing really changed today in
terms of the macro situation.
I think Trump did have a talk about tariffs after that.
I wasn't going to be catching you guys catch that.
No, I didn't.
I feel like that's all noise until we get something concrete.
Otherwise, I think the market's becoming a little bit, you know, insensitive to,
you know, the next headline around tariffs doesn't really move anything anymore.
I will say though, I'll push back a little bit. I don't think
that there was nothing that changed about the macro. I actually think that it got worse.
If you read the statement and you got the summary of what happened today, I mean, they
basically said their forecast for inflation went up and their forecast for GDP growth
went down. And there was a good, if you look at the dot blocks not just like the average expectation
for rate cuts there are five members that said zero cuts this year so you know they're
in a tight spot because yes inflation now we've got two reports where maybe we saw a
again peak in the month prior this month trended down I mean we've only really had two prints
in a row
where you can draw a line,
that's the minimal number of points you could have
to draw a trend.
So we still need to see inflation meaningfully come down
to believe that that trend is in place.
I do think so, obviously, because I do believe
and so does the Fed that the risks of the economy
is to the downside and slowing growth.
So I think inflation comes down.
But yeah, I mean, it's a fine balancing act.
But you don't you have a Fed that doesn't have you know, what are the what's their dual
mandate?
They say it all the time.
It's full employment and price stability, which is low inflation.
And they're in a tough spot because inflation is still printing around three,
unemployment is still printing around four.
So, you know, unemployment's low and inflation is high.
So you can't exactly cut rates here
because it'll be potentially inflationary.
And yeah, they're in a tight spot.
So I think if everyone is waiting for rate cuts,
it's just kind of a tough spot to be.
And economy is slowing,
there's not much they can do about it. So I would say that the macro situation is actually
incrementally worse now. And I, you know, I think in terms of I guess, I'll just say what I've been
doing, and you guys know that I've definitely added on some hedges. I do think, as I've been
saying for a long time, we're definitely.
Oversold in the index.
I mean, went straight down 10%.
And now we've rallied a couple of percent off the lows.
Um, maybe more than a couple of percent.
It feels like a decent place to try to add back some hedges and some shorts.
So I've been doing that because I'm very long in this market.
Um, but I did take a quick look at a bunch of charts right now and after hours.
And I actually decided to cover about like half of those.
I assume that maybe, you know, when I see that report from the Fed,
I expected us to actually tank.
We didn't.
And I actually thought that that volume on the rally was pretty weak.
So I'm actually still incrementally bearish here, but I just looked at a bunch of charts
and a lot of names still closed above their 90 EMAs.
So with my trading hat on, I figured, you know, I'd rather, I would have been a lot
more bearish if we closed below the 90 EMAs.
So in the near term, it's tough, man.
There's a lot of noise when it comes to trading for sure. But overall, I keep constantly reiterating these points, but you
really have to know what you own and that you feel very comfortable in
what you own and there is no, I would say valuation floor in sight for a
lot of popular names that are mentioned on Pintuit.
Um, yeah, sorry, shy, but I'm going to talk Palantir. insight for a lot of popular names that are mentioned on FinTwit.
Yeah, sorry, Shai, but I'm going to talk Palantir. Palantir is still very expensive. And, you know, that's just one example. There's plenty of those examples.
And, you know, just because it's down 30% or whatever from the highs,
I mean, we're back to prices two, three months ago, that doesn't mean it's a buy.
And you know, maybe the problem is like, when you're trying to buy stocks on the way up,
and they're having accelerating fundamentals, then you can pay higher multiples for those
stocks.
But if we are in a situation where the growth in the economy is going to slow, then we can
potentially expect that a lot of these companies' earnings are going to slow.
So that second order derivative, which we talk a lot about for Nvidia, which is the
rate of change in their growth rate, not in the growth itself, is going to start slowing.
And that's what really determines what the multiples should be for a lot of these stocks.
So if we start seeing that second order derivative come down, the acceleration of that growth
come down, then a lot of these stocks are very expensive.
And so we're going to have to revise some of those forward looking earnings.
And when you factor in that level of growth that might be slowing,
they're not going to command those kinds of multiples anymore. So that's a real risk,
I think, valuation risk. And that's why people have been definitely more than incrementally
bearish on US large cap equities. Has that trade gone on too far? I mean, I really think it depends
on how slow or how weak the US economy will be, which...
Can you guys hear me still? Yeah, you're good.
So yeah, I mean, we haven't really seen any data come in that other than like a, you know,
GDP forecast that was somewhat light. but that's based on tariffs.
There's a lot of noise there.
Like we haven't seen unemployment take up to 4.6%
or something like that.
That would be, oh crap, definitely a recession possibility
around the corner.
So I would still be like, I don't wanna get overly bearish.
We did just have a 10% correction.
If this all turns out to be sentiment driven
and the data doesn't come to back it up,
then maybe we overshot to the downside.
But I think any person who has long exposure
in this market needs to be very cautious
and keep a very close pulse to general economy.
You can't just close your eyes like you did in 2024
and it's up and to the right
with very shallow pullbacks.
It's clearly not the trend this year.
It's not gonna be that easy.
We got a huge Trump pump since the election
and we've given all of that back now
because markets didn't realize that,
hey, this guy's kind of not who we thought
he was gonna be in office
and he's not just pumping everything.
So anyways, I'll pass the check, I talk a lot.
Yeah, so my takeaway from today,
I mean, you guys heard me last week talk,
I was getting defensive,
main reason was indices broke through
a 200 day moving average,
and there's close to zero resistance on slicing through it.
So I've been pretty passive on,
I'm a long-term growth investor,
so I don't feel the urgency to try to catch
any kind of short-term moves.
Last Friday we were an oversold.
In my opinion we were oversold.
We kind of had that bounce on Friday and Monday,
but I really wasn't sold that this was a V-shape
recovery or any kind of character change in the market.
So main reason was we were so below the 200-day moving average and it wasn't the greatest
volume.
So I really have a decent cash position and I have been playing some intraday swings on
the downside if we've had some pretty big gap ups.
Going off of what logical is saying on the Fed's conference, same as Sam, I think I'm
caught in between both your takes.
I think clearly growth is slowing, inflation is going to be persistent, and unemployment
is actually slightly ticking up higher.
I think that just adds more fuel to the fire of uncertainty in the market.
Like nobody really knows the next market move. Technically speaking, we're broken. We're broken
for sure. And it's going to take some time to phase that out. This will not be a V-shaped
recovery like we've had the past two years. And the VIX dropping off might suggest that there
might be some lower volatility ahead. That might, I think it hit a 19 handle today, but it doesn't really, that kind of compression
doesn't really typically feel a V-shaped recovery for still significantly below the all-time
highs.
I do think this is like this, we're caught in this gray area of bulls and bears are just
like waiting for the next move.
It's like a game of chicken.
One significant takeaway I did have from the Fed decision was to slow the QT and ease the
pace of the Boundary runoff.
So I do think that's signal to me recognition that the economic momentum is somewhat fading
due to tariffs obviously, but it also complicates the broader
market dynamic because if GDP is decelerating while inflation remains somewhat elevated,
that is a dangerous combo that could create a brand new narrative that's going to be driving
the market in the next couple of weeks.
And the initial reaction, obviously, for FMC meeting was bullish, dovish, and the market in the next couple of weeks. The initial reaction obviously for FMC meeting was bullish, dovish, and the market caught
a major bid.
But when we caught that bid, we faded below the lower high on, when was it?
Was it Friday?
For the QQQ, I'm talking QQQ.
QQQ did not go above the 4550 level.
I think they just missed.
It was a lower high.
And we kind of reversed courses.
I just think big tech is, tech in general is just so weak.
And I think that the catalyst today wasn't what it was needed to have that explosive
upside and maybe retest that 200-day moving average of 490.
We're a couple of percentages away from there.
So we are still trading below the 200-day moving average of 490. We're a couple of percentages away from there. So we are still trading below the 200-day moving average.
And it doesn't really indicate like a crash to imminent.
But it does somewhat signal caution to navigate the markets in the coming weeks with more.
Maybe from the sideline, like there's no like urgency to have kind of participate in this
market right now. I really don't think there's any, there's that many clean uptrends to trade.
It's harder to find the leadership among stocks.
You can make the call out that ex-USA is the leaders.
I view them as rentals.
I really do think people are just using them as vehicles to park their cash as they're
undervalued, they're
technically breaking out, but it's rentals.
As soon as there's some kind of catalyst that's actually going to be substantial on the market
bouncing and you feel like they're recovering from technical levels, moving averages aren't
downward sloping, we're actually above the 200 day, those are the, like those ex-USA
names are going to be the first to kind of go red.
And you're going to see that repositioning occur.
So if you have the mentality of the ex-USAs or rentals, like keep going at it until the
market gets through this noise.
But like right now, after the FMC meeting, like I just think that it's going to be remain
choppy and the focus is going to have to be managing risk
rather than chasing speculative upside.
I don't think you need to have that urge to get as much alpha in the near term right now.
Kind of do slow ball, be very cautious, stand the sidelines, wait until the market provides
more clarity.
I haven't added this week.
I haven't done one move this week and it's Wednesday.
And I'm a long-term investor, but still, Amazon 192,
I did my adding last week and 190,
I'm gonna be cautious with that
because I think big tech is dead money this year,
so I don't have to sprint to Amazon.
And there's a couple other names,
when Logical was talking about Palantir,
I don't have any interest to add to Palantir even 30% off
their highs.
Like I think there might be me entertaining it at $60.
That's me entertaining it.
I don't even know if I pull the trigger yet.
That's just because that's a 200 EMA on the daily chart.
Like that's a pretty big level that Palantir just like.
Oh my God, I'm trying to find one.
Yeah, they've just been above that since January 2023.
It's been over two years.
And that has been the level, it's just bounced off of.
And during the Yankari trade crisis, it bounced perfectly off that level.
Because I sold half my pounds here a couple months ago and I
do want this to be a remaining a top five position for me so if it goes to 60
bucks I think it falls actually out of my top eight so that's probably why I
would add a 60s like even though valuations still expensive then I still
believe that they're the stage 2 AI winner and I'm investing for my time arises five plus years so like I this has everything
that I needed to see it to being a mega cap it was a mega cap just two months
ago but as a ton of runway because nobody really knows to see on the AI yet
so I'll add at 60 but other than that I mean Axon has bounced off really well
we've talked about Axon multiple times in the pod.
And I just think that they're showing a ton of strength.
The other names I want exposure to, like Cloudflare,
it needs a lot more downside for me to really continue
building that position.
Like, there's just, we're in this gray, weird area
where we pulled back, but we just haven't pulled back enough
for me to have that urgency to use my drag capital
and sidelines to build my
positions just because it just isn't there yet.
I don't know, Sam, what are you doing?
Because I know you have been a lot more active in the recent weeks than I have.
Yeah, I mean, I've been adding to certain positions and running a little bit low on
cash.
Of course, adding to the cash position every couple weeks is a dollar
cost average. Not necessarily deploying a lot of capital right here, mostly because
we have bounced pretty considerably. But there are some names that I don't mind
adding to here. But I've done most of my ads in the last couple of weeks,
especially last week. I did add a speculative position, Nebius, take a simple NBIS.
It's basic, well they're an entire group of multiple businesses, but for the most part,
their core business is data center infrastructure build out and loading compute to various companies,
mostly in the US.
But there were a few announcements regarding yesterday's
GTC event with Nvidia.
And there were multiple partnerships and multiple
initiatives that were announced.
And yesterday they did announce that Nebius will be letting
customers an early preview to the GB 200 Ultra Blackwell GPU starting at the
end of the year.
And I mean, it's kind of expected for that to happen considering that Nebius is partially
owned by Nvidia.
But at the same time, you know, this is a specular position.
Like I don't expect it to be a double overnight.
I don't even expect it to be a three bag or anything a year from now, but I think
for the longterm it is positioned pretty good, but at the same time, I give them
some positions that is pretty small.
Like I'm not, I, if this was like 2023 when the market, when the market just
heard about chat, GVT and video was accelerating their revenue and expanding
their earnings and so on might be something to go a little bit bigger on,
but I mean, gotta be a little bit cautious. And there are some higher conviction plays that
are good prices right now, which I don't mind having to offer that. Yeah, go ahead.
Real quick, because I don't understand the nebius too much. I understand that it's kind of like a
GPU rental sort of, I don't understand the business as much. Can you explain it?
Yeah. So nebius, it's like I said, it's made of multiple
businesses. And keep in mind too, that this, this used to be
named Yandex, which was basically the Google of Russia
started out as a search engine. And the CEO brought it to be a
very large company out there. But due to the sanctions and the
war and noncompliance of being listed on the Nasdaq, they had to sell a lot of their Russian assets and then they rebranded themselves and that's how they were able to come up with a big stockpile. And then Nvidia did contribute to raising $700 million. They didn't put in the whole $700 million, but they put enough to give themselves about 1% stake in the company. But there are partnerships, especially coming with a new Blackwell that's going to be coming
at the end of the year. There are partnerships that roll out these high demand GPUs and GPU clusters
to certain companies. Because if you're a company and you want to buy a GPU,
or especially Blackwell, you can't just go out there and order it and it's going to come in
next week. There's a waitlist for it
right so usually the hyperscalers are the large ones our priority in a list
because of course you know they're they're buying them in huge bulk and
then you have smaller companies like Nevious that do partner specifically
Nvidia and they're kind of able to get that preview ahead of time to offer it
to their own clients now Now keep in mind the
winner of all this AI race is going to be Nvidia. That's not necessarily the
price but it's mostly just the innovation that they're releasing at
scale and the speed at which they're doing it. So a lot of people who are
watching the GDC yesterday it just sounded like well they're just announcing
new products you know it's like basically Apple it's like basically
Apple releasing a new iPhone
No one really cares. So you kind of get to a little bit of a price action yesterday We're basically just got done sell the news, but and you saw that recovery today, of course with the market
But in my opinion, I don't think
The AI theme is necessarily over and I think there is still demand for compute
Not necessarily the same demand that we've seen in the past or as far as the narrative goes in the past with the latest and greatest, but even a company like Nebius,
they do have large data centers that are hosting the H200 Hopper series still, which is very
relevant today considering that it's ever since a DeepSeq release that you have the ability to do
more with less, which that was basically the whole narrative. So I'm sorry, but can you just?
So what does the business do they rent out GPUs?
So they basically build out data centers and they rent out GPU compute as well as other services
so they're kind of like they're kind of like one of the hyperscalers but at a much smaller scale and
and definitely not nearly as competitive as the HyperSales, of course.
Definitely not nearly as competitive as the high-profile is of course. It's legit like a data
It's legit like a data center infrastructure player to the dots.
Like they just have so much in that space.
So to answer your question, logical, like if you're bearish on data centers,
capex, plateauing, that specific niche within the ecosystem will slow down.
Nebius will be one of the sympathy plays of downside.
Yeah, of course. That's why it's something you want to size small, especially when it comes to the speculative company,
like they're burning cash. They had an interview with the CEO, well, not they, but someone
had an interview with the CEO. And he did say it wasn't a matter of if they're going
to raise more cash, they will raise more cash, because they're not profitable yet. You know,
the typical speculative play that a lot of people would do, like maybe like, like Peter
Lynch would do, he'd have a basket of speculative plays and you know you'd only want to win the problem the problem is that
i just see it preached on finn twit amongst the retail crowd as like the number one position or
something for some uh definitely not the number one position my number one position is amazon so
i and again i'm making that clear very clear in. Like it is very risky to be buying this stuff, right?
I mean, yeah, I mean, when I hear I didn't even know they were burning cash. That's horrible.
And I bet you it's a high cost of burning cash. I'm sure it's a high cap business,
which means well, yeah, probably. Are they ever going to be positive,
free cash flow? We'll get some there. I don't think they forecast that for that next
quarter. But the thing that makes this a little bit different from other businesses is that they do have multiple businesses under them.
They have an educational technical arm, which is basically like a Code Academy, Udemy.
They have an arm for, you know how like Fiverr, you hit people up and then you hire them to do
like a job for you, install a fridge or whatever it is? Well, they have something very similar.
It's that most of that contracting is done
through this proxy of a company,
but also on top of that,
they're focusing more on gen AI related tools.
So that's pretty diverse.
But another one too is that they have a business
for autonomy,
specifically with driverless vehicles or Rover taxis,
in addition to food delivery or last mile delivery.
So that business, that particular business is actually going to be profitable next year.
But at the same time, you know, if you, when it comes to these positions, I think a lot
of the way that a lot of people are butchering it and finch weight, in my opinion, everyone's
degree of conviction and secular theme and investment strategies is different, right?
So there's a reason why Amazon's the largest position in my portfolio.
Okay. It's not going to go out of business for one. Amazon is basically
printing cash on an operating basis. They have high margins for a lot of their
businesses. And on top of that, they have the widest moment when it
comes to e-commerce. Like no one is going to touch Amazon when it comes to
North America. It's a little bit competitive when they're expanding outside
of North America for international, but they are starting to take some of that market share.
So it is there. Like I don't, I'm not going to be here and try to preach to you guys.
The reason why Amazon is a great company, but there's a reason why it is a largest portion
of my portfolio because I have that much confidence in Amazon. I would never make something like
Nebbyius that size.
I just don't understand. I just don't understand the appeal of this business to be honest,
especially at this point in the cycle. I don't get it.
Well, that's the thing is that do you believe that the AI
narrative is over or do you think that this is just a hiccup across a longer secular trend?
I believe it's a ladder. If you don't, then don't buy this.
Why would you buy it?
Look, it's a secular bull trend,
but it's cyclical within the secular trends, right?
Like that's all these semis and capex things,
these physical capex cycles always have cycles to them.
So yes, obviously AI is up into the right.
Yes, obviously semis are up into the right,
but you know, chips have cycles every few years,
and those drawdowns can be pretty brutal.
We talk about cycles in many industries.
We talk about ad tech a lot.
Yes, do I believe in the, for ads specifically,
do I believe that print newspaper will, over time,
become digital ads?
Yes, of course. that's a secular trend.
But within that, there's like business cycles where, you know, maybe economy
slows down or take rates get too high or whatever.
And, you know, maybe businesses are like, okay, time to pull back
some more marketing expense.
It's just, it's the same thing.
Like if in AI, hyperscalers
are the ones that are spending all this money on CapEx. And again, like we're at a very
precarious spot because a lot of these Mag 7 are now in a bear market. If you look at
the magazine, you have there in a bear market. And, you know, we're at a point where, you
know, they're down 20%. If they're down 30%, 40%, 50%.
I mean, it's a slippery slope.
And if they get down to those levels, what do you think they're going to, what
do you think is going to happen?
They're like, if they're still spending on AI at this pace, instead of maybe
buying back shares of their equity, if they don't believe
that shares of their equity are undervalued at that point,
why would their investors?
And there's just gonna be a point where it's like,
dude, support the stock or show us ROI on this capex
that you've been putting $100 billion a year in.
So the problem is, and that's exactly what I'm talking
about and why it kind of proves that, you know, these will end up being very cyclical in nature,
is that yes, AI demand is up and to the right until the person who is paying for that demand
has a slowdown in their own business, and they now need to reprioritize things. I mean,
we just got Amazon coming out and laying off 14,000 managers. Well, like, yeah, go on.
I was gonna say, so I agree with what you're saying, but I think it's more complex.
The reason I say that is a lot of these, sorry, I should say a lot, like Nebius, for example,
they're not just a hardware, like they have a network effect where they're trying to solve
right now.
But before I get into Nebius, I do want to talk about what Nvidia, like I don't think we've
talked, I haven't talked publicly about it. Let's focus on, well I would say
Nebius is obviously a speculative play and I don't want to make this thing
focus on such a small play because the bigger question at hand is is the cycle
over? And Nebius would just, Nebius going down would just be a result of that. But
that, I would say the entire cycle is out of Nebius's control, especially a lot
of the smaller cyclical companies because of the fact that the question is CapEx
and ROI, that's the big question.
And certainly it has pulled back quite a bit when you talk about CapEx in terms
of Microsoft guiding down, slowing down the data center about that, quitting leases.
The news is out there. Like it's no secret. I'm not going to be in here
and being like, Hey guys, no worries. Just green shoots. Everything's going to be fine.
But at the same time, if you're investing in a secular trend, you, in my opinion, okay.
And again, not financial advice. If, if we are in a secular trend, then this could be
a blip in the radar. But if you're focusing on specific companies that you want to buy, then there are certain
points where you want to add to it where the risk reward doesn't make sense.
So much that if you were to lose, it would be a small loss versus the upside gain.
But at the same time, I believe risk management is probably the most important part about
all this, which is the reason why I continue to reiterate that most of my companies that I have with contrast my portfolio
I have very high confidence that they will still be around and make it through whatever mess we might see
That's if we do see it. So the assumption is that we're gonna see everything pulled back
We're gonna see capex spend drop. We're gonna see data center demand drop
That's the expectation the market has priced it in very quickly by being down 10%.
Now we're about 8% or 6% away from the all time highs, but that was the market pricing it in.
So if you expect further downside, then don't invest in any of this.
Why would you, if you expect downside, like much further downside and you're, you,
you want to get like the best possible price, or you want to be very strategic
with how your position then well, then what, why don why don't buy it don't buy the stock market just wait until it gets the price you want to.
What otherwise if you're thinking more in the long term.
Years from now then maybe that's something that you might consider in terms of looking at like buying an amazon at this price or maybe buying marks of this price of buying google at this price because historically these are trading pretty cheap, but that doesn't mean that they are
cheap period. It just means they are historically trading cheap based on past performance and
past historical earnings and ratio.
Well, I think the IT budgets are going to continue evolving. Just my one last comment
on Navias before we move, because in my opinion,
I do like them as a great spec play,
especially European AI infrastructure,
it's just like it's a ton of runaway still.
They aren't just a Cloud provider,
they're doing a lot more for the AI ecosystem,
and that's why I want to reiterate,
there's going to be a lot of bottlenecks that are going to still occur
next couple of years.
That's not going to be specifically for data center,
or the hardware spend.
A great example was like Nvidia. Yesterday, Nvidia, they're preempt. They're trying to solve the next
bottleneck before it even fully materializes. The launch of Rubin in 2026 with that memory,
that's not going to follow that with what was a Rub. And then I'm blanking on the chip name after that,
but I do think that Gentic AI,
you guys hear me talk about this all the time,
it's going to create a massive increase
in computational workload
that's going to have multiple bottlenecks.
And we're going to see names on the networking side
on the IT infrastructure, AKA Broadcom, Marvell, Stair Labs. That's where the hot pocket is
right now. But it's also going to evolve towards what other names in the ecosystem have a full
platform or price in another ecosystem that isn't just hardware, it just capitalizes on
all the different bottlenecks that are going to happen the next couple of years.
I do agree with logical. If you're a pure data center revenue,
exposed as pure data centers, I'd be a little worried. I think that's part of the AI thematic
glory days might be behind them. And I think me, I'm excluding energy because I think energy
still has a ton of runway. Just for the data centers,
it just takes half a decade to put up a plant and it takes
a long time to fulfill the energy component of data centers.
But I think if you're a server company like Dell,
HPE, Supermicro, I think the glory days are beyond you.
I think if your other names that are heavily exposed to the hardware of data centers,
don't really have an ecosystem angle to capture the future bottlenecks of the inference data,
the computational workloads as I talked about, or any kind of data explosion that's going
to cause some kind of networking, I'd be a little worried.
I think that's where it's going to start evolving and you can't just think past two years like,
oh, these specific S Semiconductor names have done really well and they's going to start evolving and you can't just think past two years like oh these
specific S Semiconductor names have done really well and they're going to continue doing well because AI has a ton of runway. No, it evolves. It really does evolve and you have to be very
cautious on which names you want exposure. Nebius, I mean going back to Nebius like I
I think they're really interesting just because look at their growth numbers.
I'm trying to find my notes right now but I want to say they're growing over 500% their cloud growth.
I know it's small numbers, but I think they've guided to, could we put it from wrong, Sam?
Like a billion dollars in ARR?
So they're guiding to $750 to $1 billion ARR.
That's wild.
They have $2.4 billion in the balance sheet, but again, that money is a lot from the sales
and raising capital, and they will raise funds later on.
So you know, anything has risks in my opinion, but I think if you size things right, there
could be minimal loss if it doesn't do well, but if it does well, the theme is really intact.
You know, like I'm not going to go out here and be like, I'm buying Dell right now, guys.
Like I agree with you.
It's a very competitive market, low margins. When you take a company like
this, they're pretty diversified. So they have enough businesses that are actually doing pretty
well to fuel that core business, Nebius for expanding a data center and infrastructure.
And on top of that, you got to remember, they don't just have data centers in the U S they also have
data centers in Europe. So a lot of it was basically a lot of the money flowing outside of the country is not just because
of the fact that it's well, in my opinion, I don't think it's because that's where people are parking
money. I think there's actually fundamental truth as to the reason why ex-US especially Europe is
rallying because they're pumping stimulus. For example, Germany is pumping stimulus
into their system
that they have not done in a long time.
And it's for very good reason because Trump is pulling money out of there.
So these other countries have to make up for it by pumping stimulus into their system to
be able to catch up with the demand that's going to be coming in order to find their
own defense systems, technology, and whatever it is.
We see it in China too, they're pumping stimulus, have the system.
So there's a reason why there's money flowing to these other markets.
And this is the reason why a lot, I think logical reason is that it is good to have
diverse diversity, diversity outside of the U S which I do in fact have diversity
outside of the U S and in my opinion, I think nebulous because most of their clients
are in the U S they do have a subset of a lot of their clients in Europe.
In fact, they are headquartered in Amsterdam.
Okay.
Like they're not, I'm not going to sit here and defend the fact that, okay, it sounds very sketchy.
The fact that they used to be a Russian company, right?
Very sketchy, but at the same time, you got to factor that into the, the size that you, you put in a position and you need to do your own
due diligence as well to build that conviction, to even put a dollar in a company like this.
I would not say that any speculative company should be a bet where you're just putting
money in hoping that it'll come out bigger like casino.
It warrants a lot of due diligence and a lot of conviction as well that the secular theme
is going to continue.
Yeah, no, you're absolutely right. And I do think, um, I don't know, this like part of my strategy of being defensive is
like, I'm not really adding, this is not the time to double down on your speculative names.
Like it really isn't.
I think, um, I guess I'm a huge rock lab and ion cube bulb.
Like I wouldn't think it's too ridiculous for rock lab to go under 10 bucks again.
I don't think it's too ridiculous for ionLab to go under 10 bucks again. I don't think it's too ridiculous for IonQ to also go down below 10 bucks again. Really, those names
are pricey and my thesis is long, long term. But in the near term, that's when FUD can really
drive a narrative of stock and it could get really ugly in the next couple months.
and it could get really ugly in the next couple months.
That's why I just don't know where Amazon,
we had this joking discussion on our pod last week,
I just don't see Amazon going to 120.
I think maybe another, if QQQ goes down 10%,
I think maybe Amazon goes down another 15 to 20%.
If QQQ goes down 10%, I really think
IonQ and Rock Club can get
a 50 percent haircut and not miss a beat. It's dangerous to kind of add to your specular
positions when the indices are breaking down technically. And it looks like there's more
runway. There's some gaps to fill. Compitulation doesn't happen yet. So now is the time to add to your higher conviction names that have a sort of monopoly that's
backed by profitability.
I know like we have all three of us have completely different strategies of what we decide is
buyable during market corrections.
And I think that's the beauty of our podcast where we just all talk different angles.
Like for me, valuation takes a complete backseat.
All I care about is defensible moats,
competitive advantage that they have.
I know valuation is much more of a weight
in logical decision making.
I know Sam also is kind of the hybrid
between what I'm saying, what logical says.
So I think it's really important to know your strengths,
have a game plan,
because I don't think we hit that capitulation fear
yet of this correction. I don't, I think there's going to be a world where VIX actually goes
above like 38, 40 before we go above a retest, like the all time highs again, like I think
we're have another leg down. I think it's because the capitulation hasn't occurred. I really think there's gonna be more feared. Today, FOMC was great as a band-aid, but like, because we got a dovish
fed, but really has anything changed? It really hasn't. So you have to look back to like what's
been happening in the past couple of weeks. What's been the trend? The trend is downside.
The trend is this has not been an inflation driven pullback. It's completely due to lack of clarity on those high stakes poker game that we're all
a part of that nobody really has an end in sight.
And by the time we have no new information, it might be earnings season again.
And guess what?
This upcoming earnings cycle will be groundhog day to what was like the previous earnings
cycle.
Actually, it might be a little worse because now we see the actual fundamentals get impacted
by all this high stakes poker game where last earning cycle, it was just the backwards looking
was really strong earnings because nothing really happened from this care of talk.
Now we're going to see the impact of it.
And we're also going to see a conservative guides again, because there's too many moving pieces. There's too much uncertainty and they're
going to guide conservative. And it's going to be a really deadly. That's my two cents.
I can be wrong, but I just think the setup into this upcoming earnings season, it might
be really ugly because there might not be the catalyst needed to have that beat beats
across the board and guides up.
I don't think we see that again.
I don't know, Lajpa, what's your take on,
do you think the upcoming earnings cycle
might be that catalyst need for the next leg down,
or do you think maybe it happens before then?
Tough to say.
I mean, we've got one month until we start seeing
some results come out with big tech, big banks before that. Yeah, I mean, we have a lot. We already had some
reports come out of like, I mean, it's not really saying much, but like Delta Airlines
in terms of slowing demand in their bookings. So maybe that is the consumer slowing down.
But something you got to understand is like, whether these tariffs are real or not you have a lot of businesses preparing for scenarios
where they are going to be real and so they start pulling back spending and you
know we talked about a lot of these ad tech names and I want to like talk about
the fact that stocks are very much the leading economic indicators everyone
talks about all sorts of LEIs and if you follow this, then this is what
it's signaling and blah, blah, blah.
But like stocks are telling you what's going on.
So when we talk about the ad names and obviously the trade desk had its own issues,
but I mean Apple oven down a lot.
Magnite had a great report down a lot. Magnite had a great report, down a lot. I think that there's probably a lot of
people who have way better resources than us in terms of tracking potential week over
week trends and whatnot. And I'm sure that as soon as these tariff talks began, a lot
of businesses started factoring in less demand into their
business and they started saying okay well we got to offset that with costs
and I'm imagining that a lot of people are you know if you're expecting a
potentially slower environment due to increase in prices and you know less
volume of transactions then you're gonna turn around and slow down the amount
that you're marketing and you know these stocks are down 40% in a month.
That's, you know, we had great results.
This isn't like some, again, I'm just saying it's like,
we're already starting to see the stocks price that in.
Like, is a 40% haircut on Magnite, and I talk about Magnite because it's a holding mine,
like, does that make sense and
You know in prior peak cycle situations, you had 60 70 percent haircuts
So that there could be more meaning there could be more meaningful downside
I don't necessarily think this is going to turn out to be some sort of
2021 style situation, you know if these tariffs resolve that maybe people get incrementally positive again on some of that business spending
You know, I would imagine that though a lot of these businesses are probably gonna come out with some ugly guides
If nothing is resolved by then, I mean thing is we'll know before the earnings right like April 2nd
so that's gonna be before a lot of these earnings happen, so, you know, it comes down to outlook
and you're gonna expect them to be conservative.
It's almost like not even worth speculating too much
because we're gonna have the answer by April 2nd
of like what's gonna happen
and then we can make better decisions.
I don't know, we'll have to see, man.
I don't wanna get too ahead of myself,
but yeah, we know the info.
It's like the risks have been going back and forth in this economy between reflation
narrative, things are heating up to slowing down narrative and the pendulum
swings from one end to the other. And the question will be like, how far does it
swing in the slowdown side? And do we see signs of unemployment picking up and
things like that? I think that's going to matter a lot more at this point.
Because yeah, so I don't know. I think maybe unemployment reports are probably something you want to keep an eye on.
As long as those stay intact and they don't like meaningfully spike, then you're going
to have a resilient consumer still.
So yeah, I would say that the risk is still going to be probably recession.
And if you don't get that, then it's probably going to be fine.
So yeah, like any sort of like pondering of what are these earnings going to look like?
It's kind of like, what's the point?
We're going to find out, you know, based on what the results of these pair of stuff are.
I think that's really impacting guides right now and business spending and stuff like that. So let's see how that resolves. I think the only
thing I would say is like there's so much noise in the macro and it's not really helpful
at this point. I think just manage your risk every day. Know what you own and that's it.
Like, do go back to doing fundamental analysis on businesses that you like investing in.
Feel comfortable that right now we're in the land of uncertainty and we could see more
downside, we could see upside, but I would say the risks are to the downside right now.
Like if I was to imagine like which way this market is heavier, it's definitely like still
top heavy in my view.
And I think a lot of people are still very complacent.
So, you know, I think it's not a bad idea
to have hedges in place right now to manage your risk
until we get kind of an all clear
because there has been zero all clear signals at this point.
So there's no reason for people
to get incrementally positive, I think.
It doesn't mean you should get overly bearish,
but look, if you're a overly bearish, but look if you're 100%
long, think about it. If you, if we, if SPY goes to 500, like in a month, how are
you gonna be feeling? If it's down another 10% from here and we hit that, you
know, bear market territory, your individual stocks are gonna be down a
lot more than 10%.
Are you going to be okay?
And if the answer to that is no, then think about that for a second because that can very
much happen.
Don't think that we can just go straight up.
And guess what?
If you manage your risk a little bit, and guess what?
Next week tariffs are off and everyone is, you know, you see meaningful buying and we
bought them and, you know, we reclaim all these moving averages.
Okay, just, you know, whatever you took off or whatever, just buy it back.
Who cares?
Not everyone wants to manage a portfolio that actively though.
Yeah, okay, but they don't want to manage that actively.
The market will manage it for them and it will be to the downside.
And then they'll be looking at their nest egg that is down 20, 30, 40, 50%, depending
on other positions.
Because just because the market's down 20% doesn't mean you will be.
Spy is very well diversified.
It has healthcare names, it has energy names.
There's a reason why Spy was only down 27% in 2022 when the median stock was down like
50, 60, 70%.
So I know that most people listening to these spaces, they're not just sitting in Spy.
Most of them are not. They are, you know, we're all looking for an edge. We're all looking for
individual stock picking. You're talking about, you're talking about timing, like knowing when
to get in, when to get out, or when to add heavy, when to not add heavy. It's like no one can do
that perfectly, dude. Like I don't think that- I'm telling you to hedge yourself.
So you don't- Hedging yourself is fine. I'm saying like, there's a lot of people who don't, there's
a lot of people who don't know. I'm saying that there's a lot of people who, okay. So
in order to have that much focus, use a lot of mental capital, right? To be able to tune
in on the markets. Well, if you're able to tune in on the markets, then you're going to have to do a lot, like, because you're
either going to do the fundamental or the technical. Like, you can't do both in equal
amounts. You're going to have to give one up for the other.
All I said was, if you feel any sort of uncertainty and you're nervous, then, and you're 100%
long, and we're in a place where we're below the 200-day moving average and the
economic outlook doesn't look good and stocks are still very much over owned
and if in a scenario like if you've got to play probabilities in the world of
investing it's your hard-earned dollars at risk you have to say okay what are
the risks is it to the upside or the downside okay I still feel that there's
uncertainty and there could be meaningful risks to the downside then are you then the next question you gotta ask yourself is am I going to be comfortable?
Holding all of these equities if they go down
30% from here. You gotta ask yourself that if you can't ask yourself that what are you even doing?
You should not be investing should I even be looking at things in my view?
Like if you're like 20 year out investor, fine.
I don't think most people are listening to daily spaces if they're 20 year out investors.
They can claim that in my comment section telling me, hey, I'm a long term investor.
Wait till they get to their first bear market and then they're, you know, crying uncle.
I think we've all been there is my point.
And it's like, I think ignoring the risks in front of you is just silly.
Like it doesn't mean you can't be a
little bit more
You know just because you own even spy doesn't mean you can't be like, okay
Let me take into account the the risks ahead of me like you don't have to sit through anything. You can just kind of
Wait till things get a little clearer. It's okay
If you miss a 10% rally on let's say you cut 30% of your portfolio your 70 long and 30% cash. Is that the end of the world? Oh, you still upside,
you have plenty of upside. I'm just saying it's going to help you lower your anxiety.
It's not a bad thing to take care of yourself.
Yeah, I mean, what I'm what I'm trying to say is that there, you know, you have you
have people who manage your portfolio actively. And then you have people who manage a portfolio actively and then you have people who
I wouldn't say buy and hold because I feel like buying hold is like they're kind of ignoring the
fundamentals and things that might be pieces breaking and so on but focusing more on the micro.
But for me personally, I don't it would be very tough for me to sell 30% of my portfolio
just because of the fact that I wouldn't
even know what I want to sell to reduce it to that much long exposure.
I mean, I get, I get the part where it's like, okay, so, you know, you, it'd be,
we are, I guess if we are extended to the upside, you got to take some risks off
table, do a little bit of trims.
Like I get that part, but taking 30% off of a portfolio is a substantial amount.
Like to take 30%, like that would mean that you either have to sell your lower
conviction names or you'd have to trim it evenly across the board.
And you, if you've been investing in a company for a long time, it's very tough
to, to sell, cause not only going to realize those long-term gains, but on top of that,
it's, it's just, it's, it's very hard to sell a company when nothing has
necessarily changed from a micro perspective, but at the same time, it
depends on what degree of change you're talking about.
So if you're talking about missing a quarter or two based on macro and
fundamentals and the customer tightening its wallet, that's a different story versus, Hey, we're losing market share.
I think you're overthinking it.
I'm not talking about micro.
It doesn't matter in a bear market.
Everything goes down.
Well, I guess what I'm, what I'm trying to say is like, you, there would have to be to
sell after a 20% drop in the market as a long-term investor, I think
might be probably not the wise decision to do because when everything was going
up, I'm saying that if, if they, like we were at 10% correction last week, right.
There are a lot of people who are probably selling around that time.
Cause they're expecting downside.
And then they got their face ripped off.
And then now they're, they might be chasing whatever the upside is right now.
And then what if we swing back down to 10% then that means that you are actually
down more than you were when you were down 10% because you chase both directions.
So if you were to do that and you didn't, you were thinking you can,
Sam, you're saying a very different thing.
You're saying trade in and out of this market.
I'm not saying that I'm saying that can you live with 30% downside in your entire portfolio today? If you cannot
and by the way, this isn't a message to you. We have 300 plus listeners who manage our
own portfolios. What I'm trying to say is that if you can't live with stomaching 30%
of losing your money in the next year and not seeing that money recover for the next
two years, because that can happen in equity markets. You need to understand the risks of investing.
It's not up only is my point.
And all I'm saying is, look, I'm not saying you should, anyone should go do this.
This is not financial advice.
I'm just saying if you feel nervous, then the realities are real that you can be down
30%, if not more in individual equities.
So and again, I said, waiting until you feel that anxieties
are resolved, it doesn't mean you see a 3% update and then you chase it while we're still
under the 200 day looping average. I mean, everyone's got to figure out their own system
and what makes sense for anxieties being resolved. But I'm not saying, I don't think they get
their faces ripped off if they were still 70% long, they still saw a bounce,
even if they cut at 10%. But now we see a 3% bounce and we're getting rejected at overhead
moving averages. I mean, it's not exactly bullish. So, you know, do we see more of a
bounce? Sure. Do you see reasons for us to keep going higher and make new highs? Maybe,
but I don't see it. So, I mean, telling people
that they should be a little cautious.
I mean, dude, we were on a spaces,
on one of these spaces weeks ago,
and we finished the day really strong
and every person was really bullish.
And that was the only one saying,
hey, like, I think this is still very bearish.
And the next two weeks, we dropped like 30 points on spy.
So it's like, I'm not saying that,
I'm just saying like, just because you see a green close
or whatever, one green close, like structurally
and technically we're still very much broken.
And the things that have led this market to the upside
are breaking down.
Like Amazon's below 200 today, Magnus is down 20%.
Like, yes, maybe they are good buying opportunities, but like you can just also wait a little.
It's not the end of the world.
How would you know, like in your opinion, like when would be the green light?
When economic uncertainty is less so.
And at this point, it's very much like uncertain so I would
wait to see or you can even just follow technicals and say you know very simple
nothing good happens below 200 day I mean frankly I have still on some stocks
that are below 200 day so it's not great and which is why I've felt the need to
put on some hedges and short some other things to help me with some of my
downside in case it comes.
And I mean, the way I'm looking at it is like, if we see a convincing rally to reclaim the
moving averages, and I feel that maybe it's catalyst driven, I can be like, okay, I think
maybe the coast is clear now, but we didn't get it today with the FOMC.
I think it was incrementally negative.
What's the next catalyst? It's okay if you miss that first bottom.
I mean, again, I'm not even telling people to go to cash.
I'm not saying that.
I'm just saying if you ask yourself seriously, being honest with yourself,
am I okay with seeing 30 to 40% of my net worth evaporate?
Like, if you are not, and you're just 100% plus long in this market and you're
not okay with that possible outcome, then I don't know if you're fit for equity investing.
Yeah, I think there's a lot more factors when it comes to being uncomfortable with that kind of
drawdown because I think I'll be comfortable with it only because I do have, well okay, I know we're
not talking about me, but I think when it comes to investing, like you're saying, you know, do you have to be comfortable? I think a lot of
factors come into that because if you're investing with money that you can't risk the lose, then I
think that's going to have to do a lot with your comfortability in terms of investing in the stock
market, which is the reason why like 401k's usually just go to
the S&P 500 and major indices because they have the beta one. But if you are putting your life
savings on money that you need and you have no emergency fund and you're putting in a stock
market, I think that that is a very risky thing to do. That's what I'm talking about. And again,
that's why I left it very general. And I said, would you feel okay if your account was down 30,
40%? I mean, if you're trying if your account was down 30, 40%?
I mean, if you're, if you're trying to position yourself for the next 30 years,
fine. I just think that people, a lot of people lie to themselves that they,
that's what they're doing.
And they say that on the first 10% dip and on the next 10% dip,
they start getting a little nervous. And then by the time it's down 30%,
you're like probably crying uncle and I just
it's fine I'm not saying you know be a market timer just be realistic and honest with yourself
because I wish I was my first cycle too and I wish I wasn't like no I'm just gonna I'm just
gonna keep buying these stocks they're cheap and then like I got absolutely destroyed the entire
way down and that was completely being naive on my end. Yeah.
I mean, I think you and I both agree that nothing is necessarily cheap right now.
For me, I think it's historically cheap based on the mean, but that can certainly get lower.
Just like what you're saying is that the market can go down.
No one knows if the market's going to go up, no one knows it's going to go down, but you have to be mentally prepared for losing it all. I mean, there's a pretty
good chance you lose. If the market goes down 50%, then you probably don't need to worry
about your money. But at the same time, that is a risk we are all taking every single day.
We're one tweet away from seeing a 4% down day. That's just something that people need to be comfortable with.
Yeah, and that's all I'm saying.
I'm not saying if you're buying Spy for 30 year time horizon, and even maybe some people
in that scenario are going to be cautious, but I'm just talking, I was leaving it as
a very, very broad comment of like, look at your portfolio.
If it was down 30, 40%, are you going to be
like, are you going to be okay? That's all you got to answer.
Anyways, we're at the top of the hour. I'll let Shai get some finishing thoughts because
we went on around there.
No, that was awesome, guys. I think it's really important for a lot of the listeners to hear different perspectives of what to
How to maneuver a volatile market
I think also would you guys talk Sean like a lot of people have fixed portfolios where this can infuse cash
I think it's vital to know that if you can't infuse cash like whatever capital you have in your portfolio is fixed
I've been advising people to raise 10 to 15%
cash put on sidelines until it's over. Like for me, I had DCA every week, so I know that
if I add, it might go lower. That's fine. I'll have more capital down the line to continue
adding with that long term mentality. But even now I have an 8% cash position. It's
probably going to turn into a 10% next couple of weeks for my DCA plan.
And unless things really just break down,
but either way, great discussion.
I hope we offered a lot of the listeners
a lot of different angles that they're not usually accustomed
to in the books or in the legacy media outlets.
And yeah, I'm past, I think actually I won't even pass
to the amp, I think we're at the top hour.
And tune in next week, same time, it's gonna be a fun one. And I think next couple of't even pass it to AMP. I think we're at the top hour and tune in next week.
Same time.
It's going to be a fun one.
And I think next couple days, who knows what the ethos will be on next week's spaces.
It could be we had a V-shaped recovery or above all the 200-day moving averages and
now we're being aggressive with our ads.
You just never know.
Or it could be fix the 40, we're all losing money and we're all going to fight each other for cash.
It's because we want to buy the dip.
I don't know. It's 50 50 coin flip.
So either way, thanks for tuning in and see you guys next week. Yn ystod y cyfle, mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle. Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle.
Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle. Mae'r cyfle wedi'i ddod yn ystod y cyfle. .
