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INVESTMENT RESEARCH MADE EASY
Recorded: March 20, 2025 Duration: 2:43:03Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic trading session, market participants are closely monitoring key indicators and trends, with a focus on potential growth opportunities in major stocks like Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. As the market prepares for significant events like triple witching, traders are strategizing around price movements and sentiment shifts, highlighting the importance of thorough research and analysis in navigating the current landscape.
Full Transcription
Yn ystod y cyfle hwn, mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn.
Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Mae'r cyfle hwn yn ystod y cyfle hwn. Yo, good morning, can you guys hear me?
Yes, sir.
Good morning, Maple.
Good morning, everyone.
Happy Thursday.
It is March 20th, the day before triple witching, quad witching, whichever camp you're in over
there.
A lot of options expiration tomorrow.
FOMC yesterday is now out of the way.
So we'll get to see if we get a continued move
or reaction either way based off of that.
Looking across the market, we are down 0.66% on QQQ,
0.54% on SPY and 0.81% over on IWM around the small caps
4% on spy and 0.81% over on IWM around the small caps and the Dow Jones down
half a percent as well looking through some of the big names of course real
fast as we get a market update and we'll go over to maple and so the rest of our
speakers see what is on everyone's mind this morning
Tesla down just over 1% crowd strike down over 1%. And everything else just
slightly down as far as big tech goes. Yeah, don't see a whole lot of movement. Everything's
down about the same as the market other than maybe Tesla there at 1.4%. And we'll see what happens.
We'll see if we get any type of follow through.
Do we hold yesterday's lows and range?
We've come back down.
If you look whenever Europe opened last night
for you futures traders, I'm sure you probably noticed this
but we kind of fell off a cliff.
We were trading up there just above 20,000
on the new In-Q contract and rolled over,
fell down super hard,
about 300 points there in a matter of an hour or two.
ES, same thing, if you trade ES,
we were up there around the 57.50, 57.60 range,
and that fell down about 80 points or so.
So we're hanging out right where we were
basically when the FOMC announcement came out yesterday.
So right in the middle of yesterday's range for the most part. We'll see if this holds.
If it does break, I think it could get a little bit ugly, but we'll see what the day presents.
News front, we did get initial jobless claims this morning. We don't have a whole lot else on the schedule today.
We will see some existing home sales at 10 a.m.,
a couple short term bill auctions.
We'll get the mortgage rates at noon,
and we have a 10 year tips auction at 1 p.m.
And that's about all we have today as far as the macro goes.
And then obviously, like I said earlier,
tomorrow is a triple witching, ton of options expiration.
Your weekly, monthly and quarterly options
are all expiring tomorrow.
And yeah, that's kind of your morning update so far.
And without further ado, I will go over to my man,
MapleStacks, thanks for always coming up here, co-hosting these live trading spaces with us, Maple.
I want to see if you have any thoughts around yesterday going into today.
What's on your radar?
So, you know, it felt strange on that FOMC rip up, especially considering the market
sentiment.
You know, it felt like maybe we go higher just to go lower, which is what we saw after
the London Open last night so.
As of now looking and just breaking down the market sentiment.
From what is being you know.
Printed currently I see the prices below the walk the emas are bearish and like you said we're close to a demand so it's really up to these buyers off of that fmc print.
buyers off of that FMC print, whether or not they're going to defend their position or
you know, stop out and if they do stop out, I'd look for I'm speaking of NQ here.
I look for a break in base under 780 770 area.
If I see those buyers fail or stop out, they likely stop out on top of each other, you
know, sellers also taking away their stops by shorting the market.
And we could see, you know, down to that session lows,
700, 701, and down to yesterday's session lows, 657.
So that's what I'll look at.
Of course, it has to be, you know,
confirmation based and backed.
So a break in retest is super important here, right?
You don't want to chase the break.
You want to chase the base.
Again, you could take away those stops from those buyers,
which will force a sell imbalance.
So another name I'm looking at, Nvidia here,
same kind of look, of course, as Enqueue.
They have to defend 116 here.
Otherwise, I'd look for a breaking base beneath it,
and I'll keep an eye on the 115 or 114 puts.
Everything looks pretty similar.
So I don't want to repeat myself across multiple names.
But if these names, I'm speaking of Tesla, Meta, NVIDIA,
and their indices, if they cannot defend the previous day
low, it can get really nasty with the failed acceptance
of that F1C print yesterday.
Guys, it really wasn't any kind of outstanding news.
They didn't cut rates.
They're still planning for two this year, 2025.
So everything's still on course, but also doesn't show growth or progress.
So I'm going to keep it super patient today.
We had a great FOMC trading session.
I think it got rugged a little bit,
I think like 20 minutes after what, Jordy's right?
And then I will also get the SPY directional analysis
pinned at the top, right?
Unbiased perspective on SPY today,
giving both long and short targets,
as well as highlighting key areas for buyers or sellers
to defend.
So there it is pinned at the top.
Yeah, Jordy, Jordy, robed us all,
like 20 minutes, 15 minutes into the,
the Powell speech part of things.
But it was interesting, Maple,
before I move on to Josh and Casey,
Maple, I kind of had that same thought yesterday.
We talked about this a little bit
on the Socks on Spaces as well.
Something about that move up yesterday was just strange.
Like it just didn't seem like,
it was like, why is this moving?
Is this retail chasing this?
Like what's going on here?
And then sure enough, you see an overnight session,
we've fallen right back down through all of that.
So I kind of had that same thought.
Like I don't really know how to like quantify it a whole lot,
but it was like, I don't understand
why we're moving up this much.
I was kind of surprised by that big of a reaction up.
And then sure enough, here we are right back
to where we started going into today's session.
So it'll be interesting to see what happens.
I definitely am interested to see how this plays out today
and also interested in seeing what everyone else's thoughts
are this morning, that spy directional analysis
that Maple does each and every day.
It's fantastic piece of work.
Check that out.
It is up in the nest above us here.
And with that said, Josh, you
are up here next. Want to go over and get your thoughts. We've got about four and a
half minutes till the market opens. So look at me getting to you right before you have
plenty of time this time.
Here we are again. Yeah, I'm pretty long right here. Actually, I started to get long yesterday after seeing the positive reaction on the
market.
I'm thinking tomorrow should be a squeeze.
So I'm going to be pretty patient with some of these long positions that I have.
I'll be willing to react if we can break below the chop zone, but I'm going to give this
some wiggle room to break under yesterday's lows.
I think it's a pretty good argument to say that the short term lows are in.
I think there's going to be, we're going to go much slower by the middle of the year,
but I am looking for the squeeze higher.
It probably won't come today seeing the way that the market's opening within a tough range
here.
That said, I'm going to keep an eye on AMD because of the relative strength and I'm going
to see if we can get a day two continuation on Boeing.
Okta is a big name for me, but we need over 117 to fire.
The setup on the daily is just gorgeous on that stock.
So I have contracts for next month.
And really other than that, nothing looks that appealing.
Um, I might be tempted to just derace just a little bit, uh, for my bullish
positions, cause some of them are going to open up, maybe down like 20% or so.
So I might be willing,
I might be wanting to just do this just a little bit,
and then I'll Irish back in if we get some confirmations.
But other than that, I don't really have any other comments.
I think today's going to be pretty light day for me.
And I'm probably not going to take anything off the open.
I'm going to let these Orbs set up.
Appreciate those thoughts, Josh.
Always great to have you on these live trading spaces.
As always on these live trading spaces,
we do have live call-outs coming out
around the conversation.
So if you, if any trader has a call out,
they will just jump in and we will pause the conversation
for a few seconds so they can get that thought out and then we will continue with our normal
Analysis and the combo around that mr. Casey trades
Welcome welcome back always great to have you co-hosting these morning live trading spaces as well
Would love to hear what is on your mind and obviously
Want to know if
you're doing well. How are you this morning? I'm doing well brother. I
appreciate it. Hope you are. So I mean FOMC what right? So as someone in my
discord just said this morning just talking about the thesis that we had
yesterday for SPY. So my thesis for SPY was FOMC was going to be a nothing burger
and we'd be back at 564 as if nothing significant happened.
So SPY had a really nice run yesterday for FOMC.
Don't get me wrong.
And then a slight pullback right before the close.
And then today's session opening up here,
we are slightly underneath the 564.
We're back in the middle of yesterday's range
for the price action that Spy had prior to
the move that happened on FOMC.
So mark the high day and low day from yesterday
prior to J-PAL, we're right here in the middle of it.
So nothing significant happened.
The only thing I'm watching here on Spy,
if you go to the one hour draw trend line,
Spy is kind of breaking that trend line
right now to the downside.
If you go to the 30 minute timeframe on Spy
with the move yesterday and then the move here pre-market,
you have a head and shoulders on Spy,
the neckline's right around 562.
So looking for a move down there.
Spy gives out 562, 561.50, I think
and below 560 today on Spy. So that's my top watch here this morning.
I didn't want to interrupt but I am short in queue from 95.
Market's about open up here. Let's see if we get a lower low under 82.
Yep, 10 seconds till the market opens and then we'll go around and get some more thoughts
by the time the listeners share this.
The market will be open.
Here comes the opening bell.
Right now, officially we are going to open up QQQ down 0.84%, 0.73% on SPY and almost
right at 1% on IWM.
6.8 yes ES covered half.
We are actually right at yesterday's lows here. This was kind of what I was worried about if this does break, especially this early in the day. Intraday lows here, we got a little bit lower
to go for previous day low on QQQ and SPY. Right, taking a little bit of a break. and spy.
All right taking a look around here real fast.
Something is not updating on my watch list. This has a lot of green things still on it and I know that's not true
Don't believe you. All right, Kim. Good morning. Kim. How are you? Great. Good morning
We're doing well, how are you Kim? Great to have you joining us this morning. Thank you. Happy day after the FOMC
Yes, happy Post FOMC day to all that celebrate.
What do they always say?
First move, wrong move.
So I swung micro and queues overnight because I like to swing trade.
So that was nice. And I saw that Evan wrote we had the
first Meg-7 closing green day of all of them in a long time. So
now they're red. But yeah, it's interesting. It's going to be
interesting to see like how the market digests what the Fed was
talking about. The one word I said they wouldn't use, Evan made a post
and he said, what's the one word
the Fed is not going to say?
And I said, transitory.
And they use that word.
I couldn't believe it.
I'm like, we're going there again?
We're going there again?
That didn't work the first time.
Yeah, that was interesting.
They didn't say my word that I guessed.
They did not say.
What was your word?
Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.
You never know with this Fed.
They could have said that.
So yeah, we'll see seriously how the market digests this over the next few days.
And then I'm guessing personally, it's just going to be back and forth until
April 2nd, which I guess is now Liberation Day, until Liberation Day and see how all these tariffs
play out. Did not know we had a word for Liberation Day. I didn't know we had a word for that.
That is what it is named for.
I would be clear, I think there's going to be a pretty substantial squeeze tomorrow.
And actually, I love this reaction off those lows, those pre-market lows.
This is looking really good right now.
Nvidia defending above 116 really well.
I think there is great...
I shorted this all the way down, I've been bearish since
the, you know, since December. And I just want to be extra clear that I think a substantial bounce
could build that carries through next week. I mean, we are extremely oversold. Yeah, that was
a big fast move. That was 100 points in like, what, two minutes or one minute?
And tomorrow's the quad witching.
It's like the day before the FOMC, the day before the FOMC, that meltdown
was completely mechanical with like the VIX expirations and the hedging and the market.
There was tons of hedging that occurred before FOMC on Tuesday.
Yesterday was in the squeeze of those positions and then profit taking.
The overnight selling is mostly driven from like foreign investors selling out.
And then we should see a very mechanical like squeeze tomorrow with the quad witching.
That's my expectation right now.
So that's why I have a bullish stance and why I got long yesterday.
I actually, if you see my tweets yesterday,
I was calling for the strong squeeze before that FOMC.
Like I rode that all the way up to the highs.
So, and then I carried some of those over.
And this move is, this move off the open
is exactly what I wanna see.
Still a bit too early to get really excited.
Um, but this is looking pretty good so far.
I just want to see Vicks confirm and actually get, get a sizable move under
20, not do what it did yesterday.
I just kind of barely did blow it.
I want to see a nice move under and then like a plunge to like, uh, the low
19s would be really great.
Can I get a mic check?
Yeah, I hear you bro.
Mic check, mic check.
Nice.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen.
I'm looking at 560, 245 pre-market low.
I'm looking at 560, 627, 563, 558 and obviously pre-market high
if we can get all the way up there at 572, 40.
Those are the levels I'm watching today.
AMD strong as well.
Out of the gate.
Big pop.
Nvidia, AMD.
I was looking at...Navidia went from red to green there at the open meta also red to green.
MU has earnings today, Casey.
Let's see.
Now that's a name that you've traded pretty frequently.
I do like me some MU. One in four hour is looking very bullish.
The daily, this thing has no idea really what it wants to do.
Weekly squeeze currently on MU is pointing to the upside.
That's very interesting leading up into earnings.
We'll make a note of that. the the
the 330 the move and just what was said by the Fed?
Yeah, absolutely. So basically, in the nutshell,
sorry, give me one second.
Okay, so today I think that even though the market was, you know, came about a little red, I think last night's futures move dictates what's going to happen today.
Last night's futures, so once FOMAC happened yesterday, okay, you can tell that the move that the most pretty much from there was up
until the like what the last 30 minutes maybe and then we were
going down. Futures closed, then it opened again at six. Okay,
and then from six o'clock, you could literally have took a long
position all the way up to where it rejected at the top there.
And then took a short position, which is literally what I did,
and I swung that short position overnight. I woke up this morning literally and Q fell right to my
level. The way it was trending last night between the time that it opened and the time that it hit
the top level, that told me that today might be a trend day. Even though it's going
to open up as a put day, that it probably will end up being a trend day. So, you know,
I think that what we could see is essentially bouncing off of the level where we did bounce
off an NQ and coming back up to retest that top end where we were last night. That's what I think is gonna happen.
And if we do that, I think it's gonna be done that
in a trend-based environment for today.
I.Q. Josh is looking at tomorrow as a,
with all the expiration and stuff,
as a potential for a large short squeeze. Are you seeing anything similar to that the The thing is, is there's a shitload of negative gamma. Benzinger Pro Squawk has disconnected.
And the negative gamma fuels the fire, right?
So they're all hedged on the put side, okay?
So the delta notional is really high.
And the market makers are definitely controlling the negative gamma gain.
And we need to break out of the negative gamma.
Personally, they need to flush out the negative gamma for us to, you know, so-called return
to normal market conditions where, you know, we can go along and not worry about that,
you know, whiplash behavior to go retest the support level out of nowhere type thing.
So I think because of the put hedges in the way the gamma, how negative the gamma is, if we swing around for whatever reason, and because the way they are hedged, then I wouldn't call it a short squeeze, but it will cause them to start, you know, going long and switching the way that they're that they're essentially hedged.
So if they start going long, that means it's going to add to the gamma because that long is positive gamma, short is negative gamma.
So you know they would go long and essentially start fueling the fire. The hedges will change
and the hedges will be more not one-sided on the put side. It will be more neutral I should say.
When you start seeing a more neutral stance that's when you know the market makers are
starting to make their moves outside of the push into the back into the calls.
I got the E.S. there. I did just take NQ long for a potential bill breaker. You and H looking really good here.
Nice comments, Mikey.
Thank you. the Oh, 65 minute looks really good too.
The other, the other thing is that, you know, we woke up severely red this morning, more or less.
And the other piece of it was, okay.
So then why are we having like, so I ran the flow from like three
30 until four PM four 15 PM15pm and the dark pools.
And I'm thinking to myself, why am I seeing in like all these calls right now, if we're
market severely red, these guys would have known we would have opened lower, they wouldn't
have loaded all these calls if that's the case.
What's the explanation for this?
Well, the only freaking explanation is, is're opening red everybody in their mother things. I have super buckets talk about here
Here we go fucking again. I'm going short right bad open and boom. We're all fucked right now because well we went short
But we didn't go short bond the same
so a
Lot of call activity
So that's another tell.
Whenever the market is red the way it is and opens the way it is, look at that.
Look at the gamma and look at the call activity that lasts 45 minutes up until 4.15 p.m.
Including the dark pools.
Scaled half the NQ long for 20 points, 400 to call in.
We just tapped VWAP here
In the video over 120
You might do it
Ticker DLTR $66 call I'm going to go ahead and start the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation. Okay. Do we have any data top of the hour. I just the video's reaction that first dip was really beautiful but
this can even go with a high a day I'm gonna be we got existing home sells at
10 Kim. There we go there's 30 points on NQ. Yes higher high I think it's gonna
break VWAP. Make sure you guys manage this, please. BBC still bullish.
We bought it while it's red.
Ticker M.A.R.A. Mada motherfucker.
$13 call March 21st.
I'm sorry, Mara.
I see you're moving really nicely.
Yes, she is. My contracts are still down from yesterday. the the
the I'm in Tesla 240s.
I still looking really good.
I might take that too.
Look at Schwartz right here to be 100% honest but I haven't taken anything yet.
Yeah, patiently waiting for my short 27 on the spot.
Report my spy chart.
Wow, incredible.
There's 40 points guys, 45.
Yeah I took Amazon IWM calls, I'm looking for a little bit higher.
Start taking trims but nice pop.
Ice coming right into that NFP level right here.
Met a really strong over the pre-market highs and over yesterday's highs. Some calls here.
I just took a little bit of a short. I'm gonna take...
Some calls here, Meta.
I'm gonna buy the 605s for next week.
Ticker DLTR or ripping or $66 calls are almost in the money. And I think the video can get over 120 today.
I'm gonna buy some 122 calls for next week here in Nvidia.
I'm gonna start small.
My second trade here will probably be bigger after it gets over 120. Well, that's ambitious. the Wow, that is that dad that is ambitious. Holy
I think spy got a little bit more gas in the tank for that 10 minute 200 EMA at 566. So look for a brick there
To potentially get all out of my in queue
Adobe new high a day for those in the $400 calls with me the
the 40 point gain and QM all out. Google calls are coming back nicely. Hope does, making me be so patient.
I like that name always does like, like it just makes you wait like an extra like day
or two.
I know.
I've been, I've made some really good money training this thing, but it's also been how convicted are
you?
Go back and review that thesis about five times.
You're like, come on, nothing's changed.
It also just loves killing pregnant. It killed.
It's like a net
when that had this like same.
I mean, I can't really call it
out that cuff and handle.
It kind of is unlike the four
hour.
But I remember that like killed
my contracts like it was
like 50 to 55 percent.
And then, oh, like within two days, I was was like 50 to 55% and then boom, like within two days I was up like
180%. And this one's the same way. It just loves to murder the premiums before the move.
I don't like it, but it looks good. So I'll hold it.
the the I guess it's probably worth saying that in my trade account, I am definitely favored
Lyft, L Y F T or $12 calls are in the money.
long here, but I do have some August 180 puts for Apple that I'm using to serve as a hedge
for all these other swing positions I have because I think Apple's gonna go there.
Probably before August. I don't think it'll happen the short term, but if something takes his market off guard, that's my hedge and my trade account.
I'm long NKD.
Oh, the Celtics just got sold. the
on the saltic just got sold yeah they're telling by on
the 6.1 billion sorry. I 15 minute chart looks great. to
Okay So 216 a second ago. All right, going to take a first-room on IW not sure.
Actually a decent look for in queue holding this 900 right now. There you go.
Come on. All right, there's the 10 minute 200 break. We have that existing home sales data coming up in two and a half minutes.
Not typically a big market mover. Okay. Taking another one off on IWN.
Finishing a post-walk has reconnected. I
Hadn't got a red Kindle yet on spy or IWM
IWM baby, and we have existing home sales and
Us leading index existing all stuff home sales is getting 3.95 million. I got to stop mood up to entry now in IWM the trade does not go red I've sold a
quarter position here looking for a break over 206.22 previous week high
after that Steve can get a ripper candle up to 206.7.
But so far, so good.
Nice one to three risk to reward trade setup here.
Still looking for Amazon to hold above 196
and get a move to 196.85, 197 to take that next trim
and then move a stop up on those as well.
Tesla new high a day 240s are first.
Existing home sales 4.26 million versus 3.95 million estimates what holy shit is gonna rip
My oh my what a fucking trend day
560 706 is messed up if we can hit them very close And I just cut it there goes an eight trade win streak across eight days
Let's go baby, I'm taking trims across the board here.
Let's go!
Yeah, it's part of the game.
Let's fucking go.
Boom!
Tick tick tick boom.
DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince.
Tick tick tick boom!
And next target hit on Amazon stop moved up in profit
Trade does not go red I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm taking a trim on IWM. Holy shiet.
My spy calls at open town 40% are in the drain right now. Beautiful.
We want more.
Second video, 118 calls, 10 minute CVC risk.
Yeah, that bounce off the, I mean both off the one minute and five minute register EMAs
is beautiful.
I want this thing over the pre-market.
IWM next target hit not a red candle this morning. I
Am going to be exiting majority of my IWM position right here right now What a ripper!
Oh man! I'm taking more off on Amazon here ripping well above 197 now. I'm going to show you how to make a The cell picks are now the most expensive cell of a North American team ever.
I might have said that earlier, but I don't remember.
6.1 billion previous cell was Ratskin's at 6.0, oh sorry, Commander's at 6.05 billion.
What's up paper? I think I'm riding the wrong horse. the and
you guys wanna go over why i thought yesterday
to a bullish day today
let's hear it Mikey bestow it upon us.
So remember, so remember during FOMAC, I've always said balance sheet balance sheet balance
sheet is very, very important.
Futures and spy react to balance sheet discussions more than, pretty
much more than any other discussion unless like they're pretty like specific on like,
we will be no, we will not be cutting rates next year, like things like that. But like,
so the liquidity support, right? The slower pace of QT, quantitative tightening, right?
They're reducing the treasury redemptions to 5 billion.
Okay, that is a dovish surprise.
Okay, that's basically telling you
that they wanna ensure that there's more liquidity
in the system, you know, supporting, you know,
risk assets, right?
Growth resilience.
So like the Fed, acknowledgement of solid economic activity
and solid labor market reduces recession fears, right?
That boosts the confidence in equities.
Not really a hawkish surprise, you know,
despite obviously the higher inflation forecast,
the Fed didn't single a hawkish surprise, you know, despite obviously the higher inflation forecast, the Fed didn't single a hawkish shift. So for example, like fewer cuts or a rate hike. So it essentially
avoided the sell off. Future easing. So like the 50 basis point cuts in 2025 and 2026,
like the 50 basis point cuts in 2025 and 2026, pretty much tell us it's going to be a gradual
easing path. Still supporting the Fed put narrative. There's also been balanced tone. So,
you know, the Fed's balance risk assessment and flexibility pretty much tells us it's not overly concerned about the inflation, allowing
the markets to focus really on the growth and liquidity aspect.
You think that's what's happening now, Jeff?
Trump is set to deliver the virtual remarks today at 1040, AM Eastern, signed by Congress
and the White House.
Trump to deliver markets at 1040 Eastern.
Trump at 10.40.
I am at three quarters position of my Amazon calls here.
I am scalping the Meta Six Tens.
So you know, look at like the cyclical sectors like financials, XLF, industrials, XLI.
They might outperform if investors focus on growth and resilience.
The US dollar index, that may rise to one or four due to unchanged rates.
I haven't seen what it is recently.
So I don't know what it is at right now, but, um, you know, the dovish quantitative,
tightening move could temper the increase.
The 10 year treasury re yields could slightly rise, you know, five, 10 basis
points through the inflation concerns,
but slower quantitative tightening pace might cap that increase. So it's kind of like saying
they're going back to quantitative easing without saying quantitative easing. Gold and
commodities are likely to rise modestly. Right now,'s not performing that well, but you know projected rate cut support
you know safe haven assets is really essentially so that's kind of the take that I got from the
FOMAC meeting and then the price action of NQ from the time of FOMAC pretty much until about 3.30 PM when I started, you know, retracting a little bit
Was a tell
The other tell was was uh, um
last night's
Uh futures market at 6 pm until present time
For you futures players, as you know, there's certain days where like a candle will move like a half a centimeter.
Sorry, I'm using the metric system, half a cent or so or a tenth of an inch.
And it's a two thousand dollar candle. But another day I'll move a tenth of an inch and it's not a two thousand dollar candle.
Right. It's just sometimes you see, you know, the difference in how it reacts.
So yesterday, right, when we were, I wasn't seeing that those massive jumps in those candles and the dollar figures.
So this is what I say, watch price as to watch price action, because when you start seeing this stuff like this, which is abnormal,
in comparison to what has been happening as the trend,
then that's a tell.
The other piece was when it was retracting,
it wasn't retracting a lot.
When you saw potential reversal candles,
it really reversed back up and went straight back up again.
So, and as you look at it,
it pretty much trended all the way to that top
where it rejected and then it was a perfect short,
overnight short down to the bottom there
for potential bounce.
What would make sense is because how it performed yesterday
and the flow with the dark pools that we saw,
it would make sense for us to bounce from the level that we
did and
continue trending upward to see if
What the market is basically said yesterday?
If there's any validity to that and we can't see if there's any validity to that until we retry until we retest that high
until we retest that high.
So that's my two cents.
Beautiful, beautiful, Mikey.
Beautiful.
So Mr. Paper Gains.
What is up? Good morning. Bonjour, Papier, ça va? Bonjour. the the
the the the I'd like to see a retest of 190 maybe take it long Looks like we had Trumpsters in 30
Is that right?
Yeah, something 30 ish
Trumsters well actually it's not 1040
Got it. Oh shit that I missed my club. I got a I got some swings. I got a trim here
26 minutes of the math. I'm gonna go with that.
Bitch, I almost got that fucking entry in a while. Right.
Alright, $45 per contract gain on the meta, 610s are sold half.
Beta! $45 per contract gain on the meta 610s are sold half Rita
It I know what a crazy rip. I missed it under the previous day. Hi, and I saw it happening yesterday. I was like
From 580 to 600 today nuts. Yep. It's crazy
the someone do something. Okay. It's the back test of the 15 minute EMA for Nvidia and like a really nice bounce off of
So we were
it. For new video and like a really nice bounce off of it
What I see this push to new high day from here, but don't let us $70 per contract gain I sold a quarter
Take a new PST $55 call March 28th.
Apple is ripping over pre-market ice.
Tesla, our 240 calls are almost in the money.
Beautiful pullback here on IWM. Just retested the 206.22 level. Getting a nice hammer right back off of that. I want to see this thing flag out and I want to break 207.
Go to 207 40 previous day high
207.68 within that zone. I will take another trend
Spy new high day VIX is coming down to previous day low. It's about seven cents away
Metafly and nice push here great. We go trends today guys
About to be done before Trump even has to open his mouth. Let's go. What a day. It's not
Well, hello, how you doing so about to be fucking mint. Trump to give her full remarks at block works event.
Hospital crypto catalyst. Wow. We do have March Madness kicking off today.
If you want to join our bracket group on ESPN for free for bragging rights, I just pinned
the link up top to join that group.
If you're in any other ESPN groups already, you can just join this one through the same
bracket over there.
And if you haven't filled out a bracket yet and you're a March Madness fan,
make sure you start filling that out.
You've got a couple hours.
The ticker JD $47 call May 16th swing.
Ooh. Oh
Met 120 for contract gain i'm going to sell down to the runners now This is a pre earnings play ticker CCL $23 call March 21st. Again. Thank you. the Amazon new Haya, go. Microsoft took out pre-market Haya here.
Broadcom is really the only big name that's lagging.
Got you. Was that a buying broad call? Got you. No. Pump it up. That's a I fucking found you. I am going to do Nvidia 126 call March 21st.
I see 14,000 contracts loaded at seven cents at 1006 P 1006 a.m.
and two seconds right on the time and sales clear as fucking day.
But one 26 for tomorrow. Yeah, Look take a look at the volume. Go to look at that. It's a bought at seven cents
The people around them sold it at fucking six here we go, I'm gonna fuck you late you
Mike I'm still waiting on my fuck elation
Our fuck you late coffee mug the and you can order a mug from there. I can actually from there. Yeah, it has nothing to do with me. They just let you know.
Well, I mean, I thought it was in the other.
I love to support you, but I really just want the mug
other than the other than the than the polls.
Like, I mean, like I didn't.
It's not like I'm not selling anything.
There's one trying to say. Right, yeah.
This is gonna be fucking epic. There's 188 push, or sorry, 198 push on Amazon and looking for still 207 on IWM. Cyclevel next. I'm going to start with the And there's a 207 break in new high of day on IWM. Take a trim on the calls.
I'm going to look for 207. next As rose we just now got to pre-market highs
I don't know why I felt like we were flying way higher than that
So since I sent that in the video alerts another 14,000 volume just came in
I'm watching those those are sold FYI. No, they're not the 131 123 is a 136 is
No, sir 126 is
126 are bought but they're all part of 14,000 order on 126 14,000 order 136 14,000 order to 123 14,000 order
131 126 is our bot correct
the the higher strikes are sold
it's a
this is a
Like a multi-leg edge position yeah, it's a bit a butterfly
it's a bit a butterfly It's a
Skip strike cuz like there's cuz it's weird cuz they're selling the 123 s they're buying the 126 is it's bullish
And they're selling 136 is in 131 s
Price action definitively supports it to I
Was looking for swing long, But I was looking at April.
This is very aggressive. Like, well, aggressive.
Yeah, so, uh, I have.
Uh, good.
I have 130 calls for April 11th and then.
This for, uh, I have 130 calls for April 11th and then
But then also 290 calls for Nvidia February, sorry not sorry wrong day
It was 220 calls for January 16 2026
Yeah, I was just as I would be targeting like 140s near ish term
within the next 60 days, 50 to 50 days or so.
Say 30 days.
Industrial's triggered to tube.
Sorry. Is's that? Jesse
calling out a strat. Yeah, no, sorry. I'm like multi stream
right now. You're good. You're trying to mute in between. So
sorry. No, I like it. 65 minutes fired. Oh, amazing TTM alignment
on the video. Give me one for 120 today. Gorgeous. 570 here on the a yes this is weird yes right there close to the trended
men are almost two hundred contract from the two eighty and you know that you
guys manage this trade please
matter
or not matter but in video sucks i'm gonna take a little derisk scale twenty
you know how long the just like what the fuck?
Dude, I just, I feel dumb. I wanna swing short.
I just wanna swing gold short over the weekend.
This is stupid.
I'm gonna get my face ripped off.
Well, it looks like it's in a full blown bubble right now.
And it wants much higher.
Gold? Yeah.
Yeah, well it's a growth scare.
And I heard Mikey talking about it earlier and I just went over it in our server.
But it's like, look, we know inflation is not coming down.
I think that's clear.
I'm sorry, inflation is coming down.
That's clear in the data. But
I don't even know if it's related to that because there's too much foreign bonds. I
think it's well, hold on. Let me finish. So so the question is, like this whole pullback
is a it's a growth scare, right? So of the types of environments that we could be in,
you know, stagflationary, deflation, disinflationary,
reinflationary, or Goldilocks,
if we know inflation's coming down,
but we're questioning growth going up,
if inflation's coming down and growth is coming down also,
that does put you in a stagflationary environment temporarily,
which in that case,
gold is definitively the best performing asset class
by a landslide. Like it is like the the only trade and that's what's been happening
Plus you have the you know political geopolitical shenanigans, which is kind of added a little gas to that fire
But if it's you know based on commentary based on whatever it like the growth scare is is is it's it's exactly that
It's just a scare.
It's like we don't have data to back that up yet.
It's just like, if this, maybe that, right?
Potentially could happen, tariffs this, tariffs that,
might, maybe, who knows, right?
It's not real yet.
It's all scare.
So if that's not the case,
then, and growth is still happening,
then gold needs to come down in a big way.
But I think that it's like large players longing gold or what not shorting gold, whatever.
So I think they need a little bit more data to see that.
But if they flip the script on that and then we do have decreasing inflation with growth
that puts us back in like Goldilocks,
but not until they have that signal.
And if we do get it, then yeah,
gold's coming down in a big way.
But if not, it can stay and continue on this trajectory.
So it might be something that takes a while.
I think I have a huge position in gold in my long-term share account.
It's definitely not domestic. It's not a domestic narrative though.
Yeah, that's what I, yeah.
It's just de-globalization that I'm kind of holding that for.
Yeah, so I, to your point, I think it's not like, this is not small players, right?
This is big players.
So it's not like they're gonna unwind retail and drop something like crazy.
Right.
And because of that, I'm like, still have like, uh, June calls and, uh, GX and silver as well.
Yeah. So quite frankly, if I were to take it short, all I would be looking for is a
retest of that 270 on GLD
of that prior breakout.
Like right around the 20 day.
Which would probably be another buy spot anyways. I'm sorry. I managed to nail my like second worst ticker last night for like the perfect entry
So no time IVM Home Depot Home Depot Bishop's I just saw bishops alert to
Like long at the close
No way
Yeah
He Will know he entered into Home Depot this morning.
Yeah. I told him because he watches your secret discord that I don't tell anybody about.
I just take all the dish up and paper Casey's alerts and saw them over there on the side.
Me too.
You want to talk about a freaking multi-million business idea, that's it right there.
Yeah, getting good with a bunch of really good traders and just repost their alerts for cheaper elsewhere.
There are actually people that do that and it's a shitty thing, so.
Did you just say that out loud? That was really...
Yeah, ask Casey. We've... Well, actually, I don't know if Casey's been part of the stings.
You've been part of the sting operations Casey. He's used though
Bring your sting operations
Working on another one right now. Oh shit pieces of shit get a mouth the app get him out of here
Amazon holding the nine I yeah but is that that 200 resistance again yeah what do we think about a big we can move on Bitcoin?
What's that? What do we think about a big big like Bitcoin back over 90 over the weekend?
Well, I think you're gonna get a commentary he jumps is at the some crypto thing right now, isn't he? here on spy I might take a quick short on on Amazon at this 200 yeah be sure
like a 195s I'll say they're looking a little like I'm, I'm along at once. It's just, it's a fullback.
571 on Spy.
Is Microsoft just going to reject this 20 day again?
Probably.
Gross.
This is the high of the week, right? At the index level?
Yes, on QQQ and Spy both, right there where we just went to.
Yeah. The previous, previous week's high. Right at the index level? Yes, on QQQ and Spy both right there where we just went to.
Yeah.
So previous week's high.
So any higher, like if we have new highs on Qs and Spy,
the week flips green after a sea of red.
Where's your EMA on the daily right now, Adam?
On which one?
I think it's Qs. It's got to be like right near it
Gotta be close again
No, this is it right here from QQQ. Is it right here?
Yeah, slightly slightly negative inflows net net flows just hitting that zero line rejecting
Let's see you have
42 like 50
All right, I hit the es long for a scalp here two minute EMA risk
Tell oh look at that buy off the 90 ma. Holy shit. Oh
Look at Amazon, let's go
IWM off the nine
Rendez
Five points and so yes, come on the video get over the
Videos like it what's it? I'll just be patient
Look at the meta look at look at it spy and Q. Yes, I hit meta I I've closed half my better
But I've got a huge Google position and I'm watching the rest of these run like god damn it
I chose the wrong horse. He's always one to recover
Well, it's just so stagnant
Lows and like to the room he's released in the evictor Victor Delta Well, it's just so stagnant. It had good- Dude, I still have scars from 2020 lows.
I mean, it's released in the Victor Victor Delta.
I think we all got like Google, Amazon at like 80, 90 bucks, 2020 lows.
And Google literally took-
It's about 17% for a year.
The high on that. Amazon just made a high by penny spies just shy
I'm watching that
Is that baby?
New high price action, but not new high
God we make a new high right here on this candle the
the I Yes
Walk to me
Do it
Wnt Walmart $90 call your Valkyrie
the bulk of the and and and
and and I Watch her a little double toppy here if it can't do it
I am yes, I just took that Amazon is down. This is for scalping them. I
Got stuff on these calls. I'm done Trump's speaking now. Oh
shit
1040 right yeah, but he's it's a
Bitcoin conference thing or whatever crypto conference still yeah all right
well regarding that um literally 40 seconds before Trump started speaking,
I see MSTR 350 calls for April 17th, 1.4 million.
Lying me to the moon.
Did you say 340 or 440?
No, I'm in 330 is the one I called out this morning, but this one just came through 40
seconds before Trump started speaking expires April 17th 350 calls for 1.4 million.
Okay.
I'm in some three 40s for the end of next week.
They're still down like 30% though right now. I'm going to go with the Amazonian new high of day, spa new high of day, IWM trying back over 207.
Vol D is ripping above the zero line here, VIX is sitting right at previous day low. So, let me see these Amazon calls.
Still sitting at 245.
Almost $300 per contract, 100% gain right now on the Meta 610 calls.
Manage this trade please guys.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Banger, banger banger
Oh pop there's a pre-market high on queues
Josh I'm frustrated to be watching watching this Nvidia flag. I know.
I just spotted over 120.
Go ahead, Mikey.
Ticker AMAT 160 call, March 21.
March 21st.
All right, you can take another trim on the Amazonians here.
We're flying through the moon.
Contracts, 252 bucks.
That's right.
If Tom, I'm in the street. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. the
the the today but we'll see if we can break over pre-market high she's gonna break and
she's gonna fuck you late we got 14,000 contracts that say so let's get it we
need it we need it
well I'm gonna get over 120 come on why wouldn't Amazon just go straight to 200 now come on
the the Jeff Bezos right now. Whoa, whoa, whoa.
Did you say meat missile?
Thought I was muted, that was on me.
That's on me.
No, it's funny.
We went outside the house the other day
when Elon's rocket went up to go rescue the astronauts
up there, we got to see it from the house. So every time they launch, it comes over the same tree line across the street from the
park. So we get to watch it. And every time I go out there and I see the rockets, I'm
like, there goes a daddy Elon's meat missile. What?
Ten-point gain es I sold a quarter. That's $500 per contract
Amazon floor
KC at this this app that we're speaking on right now told me that it was all CGI. It was all fake
You know what? It could be. A bunch of videos floating around online and them saying that...
Did you see the dolphins, dude? I was watching the thing when it landed and these dolphins came swimming around it.
Yeah, dude.
I actually sent your photo that you posted to a group of family members. I was like, this is actually pretty cool.
This is probably going to be in the history books one day. Yeah, I was watching it.
I was watching it, I was like, this is interesting.
The little rescue thing, all this stuff,
or not rescue, but whatever, recovery.
And I was watching the live stream
and I saw that I just screen-shotted real fast.
I was like, holy shit, a bunch of dolphins right here.
How disappointed were they?
They were like, damn, I thought this was some fisherman with some food.
All right, so Amazon, it is finally trying to break and hold above the daily downtrend.
It is looking spicy here. The daily is starting to curl back bullish now. If it continues to hold up here,
you know, obviously by the end of the day, tomorrow is Friday, quad witching. Go to Amazon,
look at the weekly, look at all of those bottom wicks off that previous support down there near
the 190s, and look how this weekly candle is forming so far on Amazon.
The calls that I'm in, I took these calls for a reason. They're two 10s for April 17.
I take these kinds of trades because it's a day trade that can turn into a swing trade. Got plenty
of time on these. Don't have to worry about theta getting whipped out, you know, all that bullshit. So I'm up over 30, I think I just checked them
up 35, 37% right here on these Amazon two tens for April. And I can just continue to
let these bad boys run for a while. I mean, this weekly chart on Amazon can get a really nice push
higher. And it is ripping right here. It's gonna go 200. Okay. I'm going to go ahead and start the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation.
So, I'm going to start with the presentation. So, I'm going to start with the presentation. This guy is definitely shto-nots.
Someone just bought April 17th 170 calls for Shopify. You got big balls.
I got big balls. I'm shorting NG national gas
our GME call swing is doing nice Okay. Oh
All right, I just sent a post out with IWM and Amazon charts and trades that I took this
morning.
So top spaces you will see.
I took the Amazon 210 calls again for April 17th at $1.92 at $9.42 this morning and then
within the next minute I also added the IWM 210 calls for the end of March.
So took them before the 945 candle closed. Both those positions again was mainly trying to target
the 198 on Amazon to exit majority of the position there and then was looking for the 206, 206-40 target on IWM and then get that move up
to 207, 207-40. So beautiful, beautiful trace this morning. We've got about eight more minutes until the top of the hour, and then we are going to
rotate the conversation over with Value Sense, excited to have them on again and talk about
some tools for the long-term portfolios
and looking at different companies and stuff.
Excited for that conversation.
In the meantime, we will continue the live trading for the next few minutes.
But if the value sense team, anybody on the next space is in the crowd, go ahead and start
recovering.
I was looking at something else.
Start requesting up.
And in the meantime, I just see Bishop jump up here.
How are you my brother?
Hey what's up man?
How are you guys?
Yo what's up brother?
What's up Bishop?
Are you in a short?
I heard that Freudian slip.
I heard that.
I did as well Maple.
I did as well.
I'm in an MES, I did as well.
I'm in an MES short up here right now.
I got this white line on my chart on Spy. It says NFP something. I don't know if it really means anything, but I tried it.
I mean, that would be a... you mean the one below as a retest? Cause that would be amazing.
Or no, that's too far below.
The March?
Yeah, March. Paper, if it retest March right now,
and I'm sure, and yes,
how much money I would make if it got down there?
Oh yeah, yeah, no, that's what I'm saying.
I see you, I see you. I see you
But yeah, that is November 2024 level right there
Think I'm gonna go to it as well. Let's try be low key back here.
I already covered most of mine.
You got a bunch of them like little rungs on the ladder all stacked on each other right here.
Yeah it's like one of those fight the trend types of scenarios.
But if that breaks get a nice little whoosh down and then it's probably bye. the the the the
the the the And you already will be ready once Lisa's gone So that's a Wall Street Wall Street once are gone. It's clear as day
They sure the shit out of that stock of that earnings report did not deserve that stock to go on her close to 100 bucks
I'm sorry did not
But anyways, yeah, that's kind of that's clear to me that they wander out
to me that they wander out plus there's a lot of back-end shit that people don't know about
Plus, there's a lot of back-end shit that people don't know about
By the way talking about other beatdown stocks and if I got shares a few days ago
It has a gap all the way to well has a movement all the way to $100 maybe
Acquirties low on it unfortunately, but that weekly looks nice
I'm no longer for
fixing profits I
Don't know imagine if you had full-ported Robin Hood at the 33 lows you'd be up 30% in a week
I bought some Those you'd be up 30% in a week About some
Nice dude, I bought I bought too much and I was scared
So I I sold what I bought but it's still big. It's still at the core position
Ticker T as a
TNA $40 swing July 18th. That's leverage. Yes, sir. It is leveraged. He wants I dubs.
Hey, um, paper you see visco? No, I heard you scooped my HD. That's good. Yeah. No. the All right, we have a few minutes here. Want to get some wrap up, final thoughts, call outs, anything from our live traders?
I grabbed those 195 puts on Amazon as Casey was exiting.
I'm a little drawdown break even here.
I'll trail out.
Amazon, Amazonian.
Mike, any final call outs from your end?
Other than the TNA one, no.
Awesome, appreciate that.
Go ahead.
No, I was just gonna say, I appreciate everyone's time
and giving me the opportunity to talk about the trend day
and my thoughts about yesterday
and where we could potentially move or go moving forward, I think over the next two weeks
are going to be massive.
There's going to be some extreme volatility
that we haven't seen in a while.
And I think that's going to provide us a great opportunity
to either, well, hopefully win big or lose small.
Well, that's the key to success right there.
When they lose small like that.
Appreciate you, Mikey.
Um, KC any final trade callouts updates thoughts to leave with the people today?
Uh, I mean, I'm sure Emmy, oh trim.
Oh, hold on.
So there it is.
All right.
There it is. Yeah. Just got first trim there on MES
So yeah, I'm short here with the evening star here on spy. Oh, here we go, baby
Off-papers NFP magical levels up here at the top. Oh boom eight points. I'm gonna take another one off right here. Beautiful short
And then I got stops in profit on the IWM and Amazons. I'm gonna be it. I'm gonna be done for the day, that's it.
I appreciate you having me on this morning,
co-hosting for all the listeners.
Make sure you follow all the speakers up here.
These guys come on here every single day,
give out amazing content for everyone up here.
So make sure you give them a follow, go check them out,
see what they got and appreciate, love you guys.
Yep, and all of you are welcome to hang around for the next conversation. Of course,
we are going to be talking about investment research made easy with value
sense, a really, really cool platform. I've started checking it out,
using it a little bit. It's really interesting.
Can take some of the emotions out of things helps confirm some thoughts.
But in the meantime,
let's get a couple more final thoughts as we rotate the combo over. Josh, I want to give you an opportunity before we close out.
Oh, I think my mic went out.
I'm actually changing my son's diaper right now, but I'll just say, yeah, I'm pretty
well aligned with Mikey as I went over in the pre-market today.
It was exactly how I wanted it to go and how I was already positioned.
So yeah, up, up, up and away for the short term.
And then keep in mind that the bounce is to be shorted midway through the year.
So the lows are not in for the year in my opinion, you know, and I think, uh,
my favorite thing to short after the bounce is done is Apple.
It's going to go to like one 80 at a minimum,
maybe one 50 and other stuff will get hammered. So yeah,
enjoying the bounce for now though. Thanks guys.
Awesome. Appreciate you joining Josh and Maple Stacks final thoughts.
And then we're going to roll that conversation over.
Well, you guys, just a real quick note, there's been a lot of great trades called out this morning
from all of the speakers. Please consider if you are green today, walk away, lock the account.
Trading is not all about profits. It's also about building confidence in yourself and your strategy.
So if today you've been able to provide or your strategy has been able to provide profit,
again, please consider walking away, locking it up,
and trading tomorrow potentially
with a much more clear and confident mindset.
So right now I'm looking at SPY.
They did get a CBC flip short.
So it looks like we may come back down to that orb level,
maybe VWAP for
a higher low pullback again.
I won't look for longs again until the CBC flips bullish.
I did get all out of meta for over 100%, over 300 a con.
Nvidia, I cut it all at $20 profit across the board just because Nvidia sucks today.
And the ES is looking great.
So you guys, please enjoy the rest of your day.
It's been great trading with you
and I'll catch you all tomorrow.
Thanks for your time.
Love y'all.
Appreciate it, Maple.
Great having you up here.
Appreciate you co-hosting this space.
And with that, one great thing to do,
if you did make a lot of profits trading,
is to put those into an investment account somewhere, right?
We wanna make the money
and then we wanna make our money work for us.
And that's what I'm excited about
this next conversation for.
We have the value sense team up here on stage.
We're gonna be talking about investment research made easy.
Got a few more speakers on the way as well.
Who do we have up here?
Is it George?
Yeah, hi guys, I'm here.
Hey George, great to have you again. Excited for this. I'm going to toss co-host around.
I know we've got the Modern Value Investor account up here as well.
But George, I want to go over to you first.
See if you want to introduce us into this next conversation a little bit
and tell us a little bit about Value Sense maybe for our audience.
Yeah, it was was great pleasure. So my name is George. I'm the co
founder of Value Sense, an investment analytics platform
that helps you invest in a way that all the hedge funds that
focus on fundamental analysis do. So we built a very cool
investing terminal where you have all the data available, you
have all the functionality and basically the 360 view of the market.
As retail investors, we basically need just a few things.
We want to understand our investable universe.
So we use stock screeners for that. Then once we narrow down the stock
universe to let's say 100 stocks or whatever, we need to understand their quality and their
intrinsic value. And that's where Value Science also helps you automate your analysis. So we
have the smart scoring system. You can also track the historical scores and the intrinsic values.
And also, historically intrinsic values.
So this is also a cool thing where you can see
the historical periods of under-overvaluations.
And yeah, all the functionality you need,
the stock charting, screeners, overview templates,
section analysis, we built it in our platform with a mission
to bring the market as close to market efficiency
as possible.
As you know, the wrong consensus of market efficiency
is that all the data, all the news information
is already priced in, but this is not the case.
As Howard Marks puts it, the real market efficiency information is priced into is already priced in but this is not the case as
Howard Marks puts it the real market efficiency is when all the data is
available to everybody and this is not the case right now. Big players have
spent lots of money on data on tools and the the level filled between retail
investors and institutional investors is very different.
We do not play on the same ground.
And yeah, WallySense helps you to invest like hedge funds.
Trust me.
If you go to the platform, you will see like the whole terminal and all the big players,
they have something like this under their hood.
They have those investment analytics engines and we basically provided to retail investors
that at super low cost.
Yep.
Wonderful.
Appreciate that quick introduction.
The idea behind this, you can check out value sense.io for yourself while we're having this conversation.
I'm definitely excited to jump into this.
And we also have our friend, the Modern Value Investor.
I want to bring you into the conversation a little bit and see if you had any opening thoughts around Value Sense.
No, bro, that's me. That's my personal account.
Okay. I thought that might be,
but I wasn't 100 percent sure,
didn't want to skip over anyone.
All right. Perfect, George.
Well, we've got a great panel up here as well.
I'm going to get a tweet pinned,
and the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to go over to,
and let me see, I will send
Co-host to the Value Sense account, George, since that's the one you're speaking
behind.
Make sure if you are in the audience, check out that Value Sense account.
I'll get some information pinned up top.
We also have Shai joining us up here.
I know Shai is a big fan of Value Sense, so I want Shai to kind of kick us off with some
thoughts around it.
Yeah, absolutely.
So I think you guys are sensing a trend- not just as a just
brand trend for this year I
think it's been a trend for.
Quite a while were. The tools
have been gained democratize.
Across the board for retail
investors I think COVID was an
affliction point for that were.
All everything that the- big
whales on street or investment or investment hedge funds had to
kind of gain that alpha to outperform the market, like all the research tools, the fundamental tools,
like they had somewhat of a, you can make a comment of beyond paid wall gardens,
because it was just so expensive to have those tools that you really need to handle like run
because it was just so expensive to have those tools that you really need to handle like run
millions of dollars, billions, but like at least $100 million portfolios just to be able to make
sense to spend that much money every single year on these tools. Where now we're post-COVID world,
like retail investors are in a different category now than it was in the past. And I think what Value Sense has, especially with their absolutely clean UI, is they give
you similar tools that a lot of the hedge funds use.
And I use them a lot, especially in the current climate we've been in recently in the past
month where the QQQ has corrected over 10%, 13% at one point, I think, or 14% was the
worst of it. QQQ is corrected over 10 percent 13 percent at one point I think or 14 was the worst idea
worst of it but I think there's a lot of when you get those kind of macro driven pullbacks
in the market they happen only like once or twice a year and I think that those times
is when you need to really capitalize on stocks that are pulling back not because of anything
thesis cracking or thesis breaking but purely because of macro driven reasons you capitalize because you
just don't get that many opportunities to add to the clear winners of the past because
they don't usually get the opportunity because their businesses just continue delivering.
They have a monopoly on what they do.
So when we get these macro driven pullbacks like this is exactly the time where you reallocate
your position towards the names of the highest moments
in the past that gave you that, finally that opening
to be a shareholder or have them in your portfolio
because maybe they were too expensive before,
it was overbought, whatever it might be,
now is the time to reposition towards
those high conviction winners.
So Value Sense is a great website and platform for that because it has screening tools.
It has tools that allow you to see which names have the greatest momentum so you can maybe
attract the best momentum in the NASDAQ.
Like Oracle is one of the top momentum scores.
So you look into like, oh, maybe this pullback gives the opportunity against the Oracle because they have the Stargate Initiative databases will be exploding and
then Gentic AI. But if you look at their chart, they pull back. They're down significantly
from their previous highs. It wasn't anything Oracle reason. It was due to a macro driven
reason. So now maybe gives you the opening to get into Oracle. But you wouldn't know
that unless you had these tools to kind of screen out the
thousands of stocks in the public market.
That's why it's really important to kind of have all the tools necessary to get through the noise, to gain clarity, to position your portfolio.
When we have these one off macro driven pullbacks, these corrections, you might
say, and then you can have the leaders, the winners of the when some market bounces because guess
what? Zoom out eventually bounces. You'll have those market leading names in your portfolio
ready so when it does they will be leading and the momentum score is one of my favorite
tools to use for that. But even then like there's also a lot of other tools like you
can see the screening element you can explore stock ideas. You can see which seems to be the lowest earnings.
So like maybe if you don't want to capitalize on
the just the momentum,
you can see fundamentally which one's undervalued.
So you can capitalize on that.
You can also see which stocks reinvest really well
in their capital through ROIC.
You can also see companies who aren't strapped
by their poor balance
sheets because you can see companies with just low debts. There's just so many tools
that they kind of give you what their score is, what's undervalued, and then you can take
it from there.
So that's how I use it. And I think I've been using it a lot on this pullback, especially
because it's easy on the eyes. And also, it has today's biggest market movers. I love
seeing that because I want to see who
has relative strength today.
Lilium, I was on the platform for the first time today.
I had no idea LILM is a ticker, they're up 37% today.
And they're also seeing the intrinsic value is 418% undervalued on value sense.
So like, okay, is something catalyst that happened today that might be a big trend mover,
if so, as likes to run,
because the value sense is saying this is 400% undervalued.
So I'm gonna look into it.
But yeah, hopefully that's how I maneuver
and I hope that answers the question.
And I'll pass it back to you.
Yeah, great stuff there, Shai.
A couple of things that you mentioned.
One, having the same tools that these big institutions and stuff have, having access to that data, I think is super important when you say just being able to almost not level the playing field completely, but be, there are thousands of stocks out there. It is impossible to keep up with all of them.
And maybe there's something that you miss.
Maybe something, you know, slips through the value or slips through the cracks a little bit.
And you miss maybe there's some value here that I want to be, you know, invested in.
So it seems like those are kind of the two biggest, like, things that you use it for.
I mean, obviously, there's a million different ways, a million different approaches for investing, right?
But just as it comes to you,
being able to keep your eyes on multiple things
and then also having all that data at your fingertips,
would you say that that's kind of
the biggest use case for it for you?
That was back to you, unless you stepped away for a minute.
I think he's been having trouble with audio or something like that.
Yeah, it's just cutting in and out.
Oh, there we go.
Can you guys hear me now?
Yes, we can.
Yeah, no problem.
The first half of you.
But I can, Space is doing a really bad job.
I'm going to go back off and come back on.
Yeah, we'll get you right back up.
Logical, you popped in a little bit.
I appreciate you stepping in there. I kind of want to get your thoughts around value sense. I know
you look a lot into the valuations of these companies. How is value sense helping you find
maybe some undervalued or even overvalued stocks that maybe you liked the name and you looked and
you realized, hey, maybe this is a little bit overvalued. Maybe I don't want to be in it right
now. Well, I think that's a really key point is I always am on these spaces talking about valuations.
And, you know, there's a lot of hype with a lot of stocks that we see on FinTwit.
And you need to be able to have some sort of resource.
It's going to be a good gut check to understand, like, hey, what am I paying for this company
right now? I like, I think when we're having these kinds of value, like these volatility
moments, these meltdowns in the market, the only way that I personally can hold the stock
through that kind of volatility is if I know what I own, and I know what price I'm paying
for it. Like, if friends, I always use for valuation,
it's hard for people to understand
that they're new to like, you know, investing
and they don't understand, you know,
price to free cashflow, price to earnings,
and you know, all these one times stuff in the numbers,
et cetera, like if you don't know about deep diving
into balance sheets and stuff, like one, I think, you know,
if you want to be a fundamental investor, you really got to know all these different metrics to know what to keep a pulse on.
But the analogy I use if people aren't familiar with investing in businesses aka stocks is like think about you know I think what's really relatable for people and it's tangible is like real estate right like your home like houses around your neighborhood everyone is, you you know trying to buy a home or owns a home or whatever
and if you think about like hey, I want to move to this neighborhood and you know this
House is you know selling for 700,000, but the you know average
Price of a house in that neighborhood is $500,000.
Is that a good deal?
No, it's 40% over value.
So I mean, we think of paying a good valuation for so many things in life.
We talk about value versus price.
I mean, you got to read a Peter Lynch book if you're not up on this stuff.
But idea is that risk is based on the
price you pay like if you buy um Microsoft for example right Microsoft can be an amazing
investment if you buy it at $200 but if you buy it at $600 it's not quite the same investment right
yes you still own Microsoft but owning them at very different prices and different valuations is key.
So, you know, you see a lot of chatter, you see a lot of names on Twitter, which is where, you know,
I even personally source a lot of ideas, but then, you know, having a tool to really be able to dive
deeper into the fundamentals of that company and understand, okay, how does this stack up over time?
Like, are they trading right now within a decent valuation range, according to
historic multiples? Like, what is growth going to look like moving forward? I think these are very
key things. And, you know, when you're in a bull market, everything seems to work. But as soon as
you hit like a rough patch, and it's, you know, choppy, I mean, we've seen what can happen to a
lot of high high flyers. And if you don't,
if you're overpaying for something, you're, I guess the right phrase is you're cruising
for a bruising. So we've seen that a lot in this market. And I think just every day that
you have more knowledge at your disposal, you have anything, any edge that can get you ahead, having these kinds of tools like value
sensors, really key to just be able to do proper research. And it's going to simplify it for you.
It's going to save you a lot of time because, you know, digging through SEC filings and, you know,
all these other, you know, these free tools, a lot of times are, you times, some of them can be pretty, they're not really,
they don't have the full picture or they have issues and they're not really displaying the
information in the way you want.
And so having the right tool is key to doing good research and doing it in a timely manner.
So I think those are really important.
Yeah, finding an edge and that is so key. That is so important to be able to have the tools and the data right there. Save yourself some time as well. Logical, one follow-up question. What are some of
the metrics that you really look at? Are you looking at free cash flow? Are you looking at
growth revenues? What are some of the metrics? I mean, are you looking at all cash flow? Are you looking at, you know, growth revenues? What, what are some of the metrics?
Are you, I mean, are you looking at all of them, but what are some of those,
you know, for our audience today?
Yeah.
I think the more you do stock research, the more you are investing and
looking at individual stocks, you can really, you know, look at specific
industries and then determine within that industry what the best metric
You can't just use a price to earnings multiple.
Maybe it works in one industry, but in the other industry, maybe you want to take an
enterprise value to even a multiple and that'll give you an idea because some companies have
a lot of debt and they're not asset light and they're lower margin businesses.
So we've got to really know what you're looking for, but that only happens by doing tons and tons of research over time
and getting more and more familiar with each of these different industries.
And yeah, I mean, in one case, maybe free cash flow makes more sense. And in another case, uh, earnings might make more sense or maybe even a makes
more sense because whatever, there's a lot of depreciation, amortization that
you can kind of net out to understand the true profitability of a company.
And you can look at, you know, operational cash flows, uh, rather,
um, than, you know, earnings, because that's going to tell you the true,
you know, profitability of this business. Maybe, you know Maybe this business is levered, has a lot of debt. And so when you look at
the earnings multiple, it's like, wait, these earnings are pretty low, but it's like, yeah,
they have a lot of interest on their debt and that's not going to persist. Or maybe
they have stock-based compensation and that's affecting the net income numbers. So every software has a lot of stock based compensation.
So you need to understand each sector and to know what metrics to look for.
And really the only way to know what metrics to look for in those sectors is
to do tons and tons of research over time takes years.
And you just get better at this stuff.
But once you know what to look for,
which is what really takes a lot of time,
then being able to access that information quickly
is really key to make decisions faster.
Yeah, great thoughts, SirLogical.
Appreciate you sharing those words of wisdom
with the crew today.
George, you've heard Shai and Logical both speak
a little bit about what they're looking for
and how they are using value sense a little bit about what they're looking for and how they are
using Value Sense a little bit. I wanted to give you a chance to jump back in quickly before we
go around to the rest of the panel and talk about Value Sense itself and how you guys have built
this out and maybe any of those points that you heard from Shai or Logical. What would you tell
the people if they are jumping into Value Sense for the first time to look for? Maybe what part of the tool is probably a good starting spot?
Yep. I did a few things to also like the reason why we built it and what inspired us.
So the year was 2022. Me and my friend, we were like burned by some of the like previous investment decisions
that were made. As you know, like I have experience with investing with corporate finance, asset
management, and like you try to analyze all the market, you try to pull all the data,
you get overwhelmed. And then the only thing that you look at is just one year price, one
year return. And then yeah, of course,
you have the losses.
And then we said, no, wait a second, we know what we do.
And that's why I'm puzzled with the industry,
because even the professionals that were,
the educated professionals have experience.
They still have no idea how to apply all that knowledge
to real investing, because they don't have the discipline, the right to apply all that knowledge to real investing because they don't have
discipline, the right tools, all that.
And we saw Meta and Netflix dropping like big time.
Me and my friends say, okay, let's for the first time ever build DCF models.
Let's try to calculate intrinsic value and let's base our decisions on that. So we did that just at the bottom of like
Meta Netflix when they were crushing. Of course, the result was that they were heavily undervalued.
We thought, no, wait a second, let's wait another day. Let's calculate them. For some
stupid reason, we were calculating intrinsic value every single day, then we understood, wait a sec, we can do it for every
stock. And we call this like the historical intrinsic value. And this is really cool stuff.
For instance, you can go to Nvidia, go to like the summary page, and there will be a
price, like MSFT, share price history, you can click on intrinsic value, choose any
timeframe you want and you will see that there was a period of time where Nvidia was heavily
undervalued. Currently it's like 40% overvalued, but it depends on the assumptions. We'll talk
about like how this intrinsic value is calculated and that there's actually a cool way that
it can be automated. And yeah, like Metanetflix came out to be really, really profitable investments
for me and my friend. We said, hey, there are lots of opportunities like this on the market. We cannot
physically calculate an Excel spreadsheet, whatever, everything. And we thought, okay, let's build a
platform. Let's build it. if there's a problem for us.
There was a problem for our friends.
They were testing the platform for the first time.
And then, yeah, we went public with this.
And yeah, currently I feel like Shai was saying,
like when there is a macro pullback,
when there's a blot on the market,
I feel so confident because finally,
there is a time where I can push all the cash
that I was waiting on the sidelines
into the stocks that I really like.
Even if you look at the big names like Microsoft,
whatever, I am piling up on Microsoft the big
time.
It's just such an evidence, such a no-brainer decision for me.
Like ETF and all the technology stuff, it's a great company.
Currently sits like 12% undervalued and all the reverse DC reverse the CF earnings power values indicate that,
okay, that's, that's really great stuff. Even if I look at it at Nvidia, I look at
price earnings to growth ratio less than one despite its big, big growth. So yeah, I'm
I'm feeling very confident. It's similar to like, James Simons, right? Where he had,
of course he was like more on technical analysis stuff, but he had a system and his hit rate
was more than 50%. It was something like 66%. If I'm not mistaken, I believe two thirds
of his transactions were like thick profitable.
And yeah, sometimes he was wrong.
But most of the time, more than 50% of the time, he was right.
And like it resulted in such a huge performance compared to the market.
And of course, I'm not Jim Simons, but I'm feeling like the same thing.
I'm not stressed or whatever.
I have the 360 view of the market.
Like whatever name comes up on the radar,
on some stock ideas, on X, or whatever.
I can check it up.
I can like build those connections, connect the dots,
and then make a decision.
And yeah, it all started with personal experience,
then it resulted into this platform
and would like to make it as ubiquitous
and widespread as possible.
George, great thoughts.
I appreciate you giving us kind of a more inside look
into how this was built out
and kind of the thought process behind it
and what an impressive tool you've built here.
I'm gonna continue around the panel here
and see if anyone else has any thoughts around Value Sense
or any questions for George as well while we're up here.
Lady Trader, always great to have you on our spaces.
Welcome to the stage.
Wanna see what your thoughts are
around how you are investing right now.
If you're using tools like Value Sense and
any questions you may have for George.
Thank you so much for having me up here.
And yes, absolutely.
Whenever Wolf Team brings a tool over for coverage, I mean, it's always great to kind
of dive into those.
I've been using a couple of other tools that you guys have also mentioned.
I have not had a chance to check value since yet. But one thing that I would mention is that on Twitter,
I'm mostly focusing on blockchain,
but I do come from traditional financial sectors.
So equities are always a big part of my life.
And most of my IRL friends, they would always ask me one question,
and it would be, what should I invest in? And
there is really, and I'm not a financial advisor, so I cannot tell them that. But then also a lot
of them are just starting out. So they are looking at opportunities that are there, whether it's in
the blockchain sector, whether it's in the traditional markets, but they are looking for
opportunities. They want to be more empowered to take over their 401ks, learn about where their money is going, do the investment on the side. A
lot of people that I know are also moms who are trying to get their kids to actually invest
in an early age. And tools like Value Sense can be really powerful because you're not
going to be reading 10ks and 10qs. I mean, if I talk to somebody and I tell them to read,
you know, 10 Ks and 10 Qs,
and they're not gonna be able to look at it,
it's gonna be difficult for them to review
all of the statements and try and make something out of it
and understand whether a stock is undervalued or not.
And so Value Sense team,
you guys are doing an incredible job
because it allows an everyday user to kind of go in
and take a look at some of the picks.
Even like without signing up,
you have a few picks on the front page.
And of course, you know, sky is the limit from there
once you sign up and do all of that.
But just providing those tools,
especially to people who may be really new to investing, it's super
helpful. I do have a question though, I know you did talk about the metrics that you are utilizing.
Are you also using, let's say, technical analysis or is it really mostly fundamental focused? And I'll ask that because when I was at a hedge fund, um,
they were mostly focusing on, on the fundamentals.
There was not a single technical trader on the team,
which I thought was very strange.
And I was learning how to read charts at that point. This is like,
you know, 12 years ago,
and it was a shocker because it's like oh wow and actually more than that it
was like 2010 so it's been a long time now almost 15 years and I was learning how to
read charts you know really really young trying to understand the markets all of these things
and then you have all of these really great people who are handling you know three four
hundred millions in volume every day as you as one person would be handling 300 million, another person
is handling 200 million, but none of them are utilizing any technical analysis. So it was like,
oh wow, they don't really look at the charts. They are looking at mostly the fundamentals.
And once I learned how to read the charts and everything, I noticed that if I was following
the institutional holdings,
especially having the knowledge of, you know,
some of the hedge funds that may be kind of like
very much under the radar that people don't know about them,
but you know, because you worked with them
and you know some of their strategies
that they are long-term holders,
then, and you know who those hedge funds are associated with
because if you're seeing some XYZ name,
you're not gonna make any sense out of it.
You're not gonna understand who owns it.
And because there are so many shell companies
involved sometimes.
And so that kind of gives you an advantage.
And one advantage that I had was that I was actually able
to get into some of those plays by just keeping an eye
on the institutional holdings,
even after I left the hedge fund,
because I had the technical advantage, right?
So my entries were a lot sharper than some of the hedge funds.
So I could get into the same place,
but I could get a much better entry
because now I had the advantage of the technical analysis.
So do you guys use technical analysis as well,
or whenever you are sending out those picks,
or is it mostly fundamental focus?
Oh man, this question about technical analysis.
You know, I won't be...
There is always pick your side, fundamental versus technical.
I believe this is BS.
I believe if there is a case, technical analysis was created.
It's like a religion, right?
Fundamental analysis, religion, Warren Buffett is some sort of religion.
Many people believe in it, so it's real.
So I'd say never eradicate the mantra of technical analysis as well.
The current focus was fundamentals, but even I was talking to a couple of hedge funds
that are also interested in our data for some reason,
such as reverse DCFs.
And currently we, on our platform,
we show reverse DCF as of last quarter.
But on the backend, we have this reverse we have these implied growth rates for every single
day. And there's actually a cool thing where you can calculate the historical averages
and say, let's say, currently 15, you can say that, like,
historically average, you can say that, well, there is a
mismatch. And there's like a few data sets where you can do
things like this. So the idea is that you can transform some of
the fundamental data into technical analysis indicators.
And like, like a couple of insights,
we were talking with TradingView,
where we will also partner with them in terms of data,
like KPI and segments data.
There's actually another stream where we bring up a mission
of pushing the market as close to efficiency as possible,
go like life.
We compiled this KPI and segments data sets and we will partner with TradingQ
by providing them this data sets and also we were talking with them how we
can introduce our own technical analysis indicators based on like
intrinsic value data sets. So that would be a really cool thing.
And we actually enjoy working with TradingView team
and trying to marry value investing slash intrinsic value
to fundamental analysis with technical analysis.
That's cool.
In terms of plain vanilla technical analysis,
I'd say we also see some room where we can bring
like our approach to building the platforms
in terms of UI, in terms of user interfaces,
in terms of data sets.
We believe the time will come for technical analysis.
And on our roadmap, we have a couple of things to finish
in terms of fundamental analysis. And now we roadmap, we have a couple of things to finish in terms of
fundamental analysis. This keep paying segments data sets. We also will do like automated,
allow users to build their automated dashboards, aka like equity research.
And by the way, you're familiar with crypto, you know the company Dune Analytics,
and we will do something like this for stock analysis as well. So that would be cool.
Every user can build his own dashboard and share it with others. And after that, we will
focus on technical analysis. So if you have any idea how we can like, bring our core approach to building the platform to technical analysis, I'd be happy to hear.
But this is something that we'll do, and the whole idea will be to provide users with actually more data points,
with more insights and explanations how they can use this data to generate more stock ideas, generate, and as a result, generate more returns.
No, this is definitely super helpful.
One more question I have, like I mentioned earlier,
institutional holdings was something
that I was really looking at, and I still do.
If I'm playing in the equities market, if I'm
putting anything in my equities portfolio, I'm going through the institutional holdings quite
a bit more than anything else because I know a lot of research is done for me, especially if you know
certain names, you know that, okay, these people are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on
research. So when they are going into something, you know that this is good.
They have done some pretty awesome research and they have really phenomenal returns.
And so you follow that and you know that a lot of stuff is already research-wise done
for you.
But still, it's not an automated process.
It's still I have to go in and read the reports that they are filing.
They still have to go back and look at their portfolios.
All of those things are still manual
because you're looking at certain entities
and what they're doing.
And that creates some of the manual work on my side.
So do you guys have any tools or anything
that would allow me to, let's say,
put an alert up for certain entities and say,
okay, when these entities are investing
or making changes to their portfolio,
that I should be notified so I can then take measures
that I need to take with regards to my portfolio.
Yeah, absolutely.
And it's not something that is currently existing
on our platform, but this is like,
we have the data sets in our database,
and we actually managed
to pull some data that some unique data in terms of funds holdings there like how they
change the positions and ultimately like the score like it will be the score for the stock
considered how big players institutional traders change the positions for this stock.
So it will be just another scoring system, but for the stock.
And we're currently working on the UI on this thing and we will soon introduce it.
So yeah, you see here, it just follows the phases that this data, this dataset exists.
Some of the big players, they have like, I don't know, first time, like first hand, they
have data science teams that 24-7 work just on pulling some really rare data sets and trying to put it into some system, trying to generate another
0.1% in returns.
And of course, we don't have time for this.
Neither time nor resources.
Actually even if someone will say, you're guaranteed to generate plus 1% per year
but you have to spend like hours trying to pull this data all that we will not
we will not do it without other things to do the hell with this 1% but like
with platforms like us like ours it will be easier we will pull all the data
sets we you can treat us like basically as your personal decentralized investment terminal or analytics
data science team that pulls all the data, puts it in a great UI, in all breakdowns where
you can just pull the data and like generate the insights and then put it into action.
Like that matches your risk profile.
This is the whole mission and the aspiration that we have operating ValueSense.
Thank you so much.
Those are all the questions I had for today. Thank you.
Yeah, great questions there, Lady Trader. Always great
having you on these spaces. A quick reminder to the audience, if you're interested in value
sense, there is a tweet pinned up top with a link or you can just go to value sense dot
I O check it out for yourself. They do have a free version of the website for you to check
out and then some more features beyond that. Um, Sam, let me bring you into the conversation
next. We'll continue around the panel here a little bit.
Sam, I wanna get your thoughts around
using tools like ValueSense and investing.
I know that you look for value a lot of times,
you look for growth as well.
How are you using tools like ValueSense right now
as the market has been dipping?
Yeah, so I think it's similar to buying hedges
in the market. Like you don't necessarily to buying hedges in the market.
Like you don't necessarily want to buy a hedge in the market when you have to. You just want to buy it when you can.
And most sensible that would likely be around the time and no one wants to
buy putts in the market in a sense of fundamentals.
I think whenever, whenever, before the market drops, and I'm not attributing
to like market time or anything, but I'm continuously doing fundamental research on companies
that I keep my eye on, that are my watch lists and so on,
even companies that I already do own,
mostly because when the market does pull back like it did,
I want to be ready with that shopping list.
And then tools like Value Sense,
continuously using these platforms,
helps you build that conviction that when a price drops
like 30%, like Amazon,
that's a time to buy, especially when it gets into the value territory.
But knowing ahead of time after doing my due diligence that this company looks great in
the long term.
If it gets hit by macro in the short term that has no control over, I think the company's
going to survive and I think it'll continue to perform as a leader.
So that really helps you to buy a company like that.
When you look at other valuations,
it might be a little bit tempting, in my opinion.
Let's say you have a high-flying stock that's up maybe 50% near-to-date,
and then the market dropped by 10%, and then now it's back to flat year-to-date.
A lot of people look at price, and they attribute that to,
okay, this is a good buy now because it was just here. So if the market bounces back, then it will go back
here. But then they don't really look too much at the fundamentals or as far as evaluation
goes with these tools. And they overlook the fact that these companies are very impacted
by cyclical trends in the economy. So you got to figure yourself like, what is a long-term
trend in terms of
the fundamentals as far as operating cash flow or operating income, which are right
two favorite metrics whenever it comes to evaluating companies, as far as the historical
trend for it, are they up and to the right or are they just reaping the benefits of this
cycle that we might be in? If the cycle were to end, would they be able to continue to
be strong and be able to make it to the other side?
I think that's the question that you can't really be answered
by looking at the price of a company.
You need to be looking at the fundamentals of a company
as far as its past history of performance
with its earnings,
and also as far as its fundamentals as well.
And I think tools like Value Sense do provide that for you.
Unlike a lot of other tools,
there are other tools out there certainly,
but these kind of tools on your tool belt will help you build that condition in a company that you want to buy, especially when the opportunity rises because scrambling to do fundamental analysis when the market is already down is going to make you fall short and make you bias, determining whether a company is a good buyer or not, mostly weighted on the price, but not so much weight in the fundamentals because you hadn't prepared in the future. I mean, sorry, you haven't prepared in the past. So that's when
I find like very useful tools like value sense in that nature, because it helps me build
that conviction that companies that I do own and will continue to own. And if you start
to see something drop off, like I know there's a little bit of fear when it comes to certain
companies like TPD, for example, even though logical is right. The ad, the ad, the ad,
sorry, kind of lost for words. The app business is a cyclical industry. It really depends on how
much companies are willing to put as far as marketing out there. But if you see a company
like TDD, they've been performing throughout many low cycles and they've continued to maintain the leader and demand side platform.
And you could see that in value sense that that is still continued.
That still continues to be the case.
So when you see a dropping this, you're kind of prepared to buy more.
If that's your, if that, if you are a big fan of TDD to continue buying into that
company on the weakness for possibly something that might not be micro
related, but more macro related.
Probably not the best example of TD because they did have something last quarter that
could be micro related. However, at the same time, when you compare that for other companies,
you know that they'll be able to make it a long run because they've been able to,
they've been able to sell through these storms that we've had in the last few years, especially
when it comes to an economic slowdown.
So that's what I find useful with Value Sense,
in my opinion.
Yeah, great thoughts there, Sam.
I like what you said about, you know,
doing the research ahead of time, being ready.
When the dip starts happening,
when we get the pullback in the market,
and a lot of people talk about having that shopping cart,
right, and you mentioned conviction in there, having done the research, knowing what's behind
the investment, I think is so key, especially in market times like this, when people have
their, you know, they have their companies they like, they have that shopping cart ready.
And then what gives them that conviction to pull the trigger?
So I really like what you said there.
George, did you have a comment to throw in based on what Sam was saying?
Yes, Sam, actually a really great perspective. You mentioned Amazon. I just wanted to share
a story. Of course, like when we talk about like intrinsic values and stuff, for every
single person, like, like intrinsic value can be different. And that's why as a concept, that's a really
powerful thing, right? Everything has this real intrinsic value. Friendship has an intrinsic
value. The value of Louis Vuitton bag has its intrinsic value, which is super low because
it's just a few materials and a big brand. And of course course the stock that we're buying and like how this
intrinsic values gets calculated right it's some of the cash flows
discounted with a with a appropriate like risk rate discount rate
that is a proxy of risk and you can also apply a relative valuation where you say,
all right, similar companies in the same industry trade like this,
trade at those multiples, let's apply them to our company.
Voila, that's relative value.
You have the CF value, bam, intrinsic value.
And this CF value is a bit tricky because
Shai can say Tesla has such a growth potential. I will input
really optimistic revenue growth rates. Another guy can say, I don't believe, I believe Democrats,
not me personally, some person will say he believes that Democrats will destroy Tesla and the growth rate should
be super low.
And he has his own.
And the thing that we're doing is that we're saying, the hell with this.
Let's say what analysts are saying.
Let's not trust analysts with price targets because some of their price targets and actually estimates that they give to like
revenue free cash flow, EPS estimates that they give to companies that they don't match
together. One could say like Tesla will grow 10% the price target is like X and now they
can say the growth rates are like 30%,
but the price target is like 30% less than X.
This is just another sign that the industry is left up.
So we're saying, okay, let's pull all the revenue,
APS, all those estimates, let's pull them into the model. We have the calculation of the
discount rate, aka weighted average cost of capital, and let's just say what those implied
assumptions give us in terms of DCF value. Of course, then we can change it. We can say,
no, I believe in more aggressive growth, more margin expansion, all that. But our intrinsic value sits as a, let's say, entry point, like the first touch.
You can then adjust it if you wish.
We were talking about Amazon, and the thing I loved is that you can see the periods of like under over
evaluation. Of course, like Amazon, with its heavy capital expenditures, it was all it
was basically most of the time overvalued. Doesn't mean that the stock is bad. It's a
great quality stock. I own it. And I was trying to build an indicator like I was saying before
indicator based on this intrinsic value. So I managed to buy Amazon at like 85 where it
was the least over overvalued at the time. So even like even when the stock was overvalued,
I was still looking at the like the the list of overvaluation that's possible.
And since then, I prematurely sold at 210.
That went up.
Currently it's at less than 100.
But currently it's overvalued.
It shows that it's overvalued at 60.
I'm trying to understand my own assumptions for Amazon.
And I'm a big believer, but like the indicator
of the technical analysis indicator
based on intrinsic value kind of works.
We will soon introduce it and let the investors
and X play with it and probably find the other use cases
where you can actually marry the intrinsic
value fundamental analysis with more actionable investment decisions.
Not just like, hmm, I look at this data, what should I do with this?
I don't know.
This is bullshit.
This is like analysis paralysis.
All the analysis should be actionable.
You look at the data, you say, I believe in it, I have high conviction, let's go.
Or I don't believe in it, I don't want it,
I'm not going to invest.
That's what the investment analytics is about.
And that's what we aspire to bring alive.
Yeah, great thoughts there.
George, I like that story that you just told about Amazon as well, how you're using the tool
in the valuations and stuff itself.
Action, you've been up here on stage listening to the conversation.
Didn't know if you had any thoughts around it or any questions for George.
No, I got enough.
I'm just joking.
Real quick question, buddy.
Other than the fact that you're actually here, which is a huge plus right? I don't see
Platforms out there actually talking to their their user base one-on-one actually asking what works what doesn't work
What's your your intrinsic value?
What's your unique value prop for your you know for your software because there are other places we can go why go to you?
Yeah, sure.
So the thing, I'll start with our own value
and then compare it to the functionalities
of other platforms.
The first thing that actually differentiates us
from others is the pattern of company scoring,
as we call it, quality scoring and intrinsic value.
We believe this is what the stock analysis is about.
You want to understand whether the company is bad, good, or great,
and whether it's overvalued, undervalued,
and subsequently what to do with this.
We answer all those questions on our platform very easily
in a clear UI where you can analyze all the data,
you can track all the financials, multiples,
on charts and stuff.
So this is our key feature.
And with Intrinsic Values, we actually innovated in this space,
which is super rare for investment analytics.
But we have reverse DCFs, we have earnings power value,
lots of other tools, DCF value, relative value,
historical intrinsic value,
which is also like a new concept in investing.
Some of the tools that we built,
we actually partnered with some of the best professors
in the space, such as like Columbia University.
We, I saw the video of the professor reached out to him
and said, we can build a tool for this.
He said, wow, this is actually, this is how he says,
this is how I envisioned this.
He formulated the concept, earnings per value, and we made it alive.
And some of the users actually found a way how they can use this analysis to find really
cool stocks.
And yeah, currently we are, I believe today,
I'll just check if we, whether we shipped it even right now,
not yet, but we were going to redo our earnings section
and another innovation that we did,
we implemented AI analysis into the,
like some sort of sentiment scoring based on earnings calls. we implemented AI analysis into the,
like some sort of sentiment scoring based on earnings calls. And we managed to build this correlation
between earnings sentiment score
and forward looking returns.
So basically, as you can see,
this is not just look at this data,
look at the table with lots of raw financials and stuff,
and just like play with it. No, no, no.
We try to make analytics actionable. And if we see that there can be a regression analysis built,
and we can explain it to users in a clear way, we will do it. So this is more like a really hedge
fund grade quality terminal, but for retail investors. That's what we do.
Another thing I would add, and I'm not sure whether the competitors here or not, but that
will be a dig for them.
Some of the tools that should be ubiquitous, such as stock screeners, stock charting, previously
it was mainly on other platforms.
It's under the paywall and I don't believe in this.
I believe it should be available to everybody.
Even for stock screen, of course,
there's FinViz, great platform by the way,
but we took it further.
We understood what stock screen is about.
It's basically backtesting your own ideas
and we put the backtesting.
So we actually, we start our work
where everybody else just finishes it.
We push it further, we try to innovate
and we also talk to our users and listen to them.
And if they have such as we build this price prediction
section where we look at how valuation multiples
trade to the historical averages and try to build correlations and try to build a regression
based on that.
And some of the big players, some hedge funds also use this. They are relatively low, of course. They pay
like 20,000 bucks for Bloomberg and just 120 bucks for ValueSense, but also gain lots of
value from us. They actually use this tool and find lots of value. Stock charting is
another thing. Many platforms, this tool is under the paywall.
I don't understand it.
We will make it available.
We will soon introduce KPI and segments data set
that will also be available to everybody
with no restrictions, with no paywalls.
This is what market efficiency is about.
The data available to everybody and we take it further.
We put it into a clear UI Frequencies about the data available to everybody and we take it further we
put it into clear UI and we try to
Provide retail investors with such like unique view of this data that they can take it and make an actionable
I make a decision real decision. That's what we do
Did I'm really glad you broke that down because I think a lot of people needed to hear that, not only myself.
Yeah, that was a fantastic breakdown. We got about five minutes until the top of the hour
here. Tropic, I know you snuck in. I didn't know if you had any quick questions or thoughts around the conversation here as we get
close to the end of the space.
I just want to say that I really enjoy the panel itself,
the user interface of it.
And I just thought it was just a really great design.
And the only question that I do have really quick
is the credits that you have on the free level, just how are those
utilized and how quickly would someone have to upgrade to the premium? That's really it.
Yeah, most of the functionality is really free in terms of like stock screener, charting,
even the credits where you just look up some of the stocks with no restrictions.
Other than that, the platform itself is like 120 bucks per year, which is like 30 cents per day.
I believe there was a quote by Michael Bloomberg.
He was like answering to his clients about the price of his platform, which is super high for us retail investors,
but super low for big players.
And he said, Jesus, this is like 87 bucks per day.
If you cannot make 87 bucks per day with our platform, nothing will save you.
So we have like 30 bucks and I believe if you just help you to
find one stock you will make a huge return on the subscription. But other than that,
yeah, you can enjoy a free tier. You'll have enough credits to look at the platform, see what works for you.
And if you have a feedback, what we can enhance, what we can introduce or build unique charts or provide any other breakdown, let me know. We are up for innovations and we are up for all those nerdy stuff that can be helpful to as many people as is possible.
And let's have a commission man and hope many people will find value in value sense.
And I'm just one message away from it. Feel free to message me at the modern value investor.
It's just like Mark Serilius.
And yeah, there's an email on our platform.
Happy to talk to you.
Happy to hear your feedback.
And yeah, always such a pleasure to join the spaces.
I have huge respect for Wolf Financial, I believe.
The mission that you do as well is also critical and you kind of also push market to the efficiency and overall the platforms,
people who do that, they are favored by the market.
This is the only right thing to do.
Just find some unique value or build some tools.
And if you understand that others can benefit from it,
you should make it open source,
you should make it ubiquitous.
And thank you for hosting me guys,
and always a pleasure.
Thank you so much.
George, it was great having you on as always.
I believe this is the second time
we've got to speak with you.
One of the things I really like is how you were inviting people to reach out, inviting
people to message.
His account is up here.
That is the Modern Value Investor.
You see that on stage and we appreciate that.
We appreciate this great panel.
We had two great questions, great thoughts around investing, especially as this dip has been coming down in the market.
I appreciate Action, Sam Solid,
Logical, Tropic, Lady Trader.
We had Shai was up here, he just had to drop as well.
We are at the top of the hour.
What a great conversation, George.
Once again, really appreciate your time, your kind words.
And that pin tweet up top, you will see, value sense.
I myself have been in here playing around
with this great tool, checking out for yourself,
value sense.io.
And with that, we're gonna close this out.
We have the X Spaces crew space coming up right now.
Thank you all for joining today.
George, thank you so much for your time
and we will catch you guys on the next space.
Thanks all, Take care.
Thank you guys. Bye bye. Felly, mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma. Mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma.
Mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma.
Mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma.
Mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma.
Mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma.
Mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma.
Mae'r ffordd yma yn ymwneud â'r ffordd yma.
