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Iran Peace Talks This Weekend? | $SPY $QQQ $GOOGL $MU $SNDK $ARM $META $NVDA $TSLA $IVES
Recorded: March 25, 2026 Duration: 1:00:03Space Recording
Full Transcription
shout out to public.com for sponsoring the stream it's a platform built for serious investors with
stocks options crypto bonds plus ai tools and they're offering an uncapped 1% match when
you transfer your portfolio. Check them out at public.com forward slash wolf. Investing
involves risk and this is not investment advice. All right. All right. Welcome to the
solid report. Today is March 25 and it is Wednesday. Happy hump day to those who celebrate.
And well, I guess if you don't celebrate happy hump day, then it is a happy hump day for you.
So the markets are having quite a bit of a bounce today.
We have SPY up 62 basis points.
We have the Q's up 74 basis points.
We have IWM small caps up 1% and we have XLE Energy down about 21 basis points.
and we have XLE Energy down about 21 basis points. We did get some news earlier today,
and this comes following yesterday's afternoon or after hours of rally that we saw when Trump
said that he was nearing a deal with Iran. The news that came out today was basically that JD
fans will be traveling or could be traveling or may travel to Pakistan in order to constitute
and solidify the talks with Iran and possibly
end the war as soon as this weekend.
But on the back of that, attacks still followed, escalations still follow.
So who do we really believe?
Do we believe in the news media from sovereign news outlets?
Do we believe in what the White House is saying?
Do we believe in the Iran state?
I have no idea at this point. It looks like the market really is saying do you believe in the iran state i have no idea at this
point it looks like the market really is just back and forth over here the good news is we didn't
make newer lows from this weekend and we have recovered since then i guess i don't know if
this is necessarily the bad news or not we still are below the 200-day moving average below other
significant moving averages on the sp500 in addition to the nasdaq 100 so
going to keep a closer eye on this we had more than a few things come out this morning one i
already mentioned that we did receive the news from cnn saying that jd vance may be traveling
to pakistan to solidify talks with iran also on said that on top of that we're seeing a little bit of a sell-off with micron sandisk and
other memory stocks on the back of google releasing turbo quant which reduces the reliability
on high bandwidth memory so we're going to take a look at closer on that to see how this is actually
going to affect these positions and we're also going to take a look at arm making a
slight pivot from ip licensing into silicon that is that they co-developed a chip with meta that
is basically going to give them headway into the silicon or chip market versus what they had been
doing before as far as licensing their arm architecture. And finally, we're going to listen to a clip from Dan Ives on his discussion on where he
sees the tech trade going.
Is it exactly a risk on or risk off environment?
Obviously, Dan is a tech bull.
We're going to see what he has to say on CNBC.
So let us get started on the show, guys.
Thank you for coming.
Thanks for coming, by the way.
Thanks for the shout out to Amit.
Gave a shout out to the stream. I had the whole thing set up. I had the whole thing set up earlier this morning and I had to redo the entire thing because of all the news
that comes out all the time. This was certainly a lot easier about a year ago when there weren't
new headlines coming out every single 10 minutes. Now we're starting to get that. So I feel like I
need to start updating the show or I need to start creating the agenda for the entire show
and gathering all the images, tweets, and all the YouTube videos. This certainly is not an easy job,
but I try to bring the best and the latest to you guys for people who are craving that midday,
intraday content before, of course before, of course the market closed or after
the market opened.
There's a large amount of time that there is a gap to report in this news.
And by the time it gets to the market closed, clearly people are looking for understanding
exactly what's happening.
So that is what I am here to do, but who knows guys, this might all actually change in the
next 30 minutes to an hour while I am streaming.
And of course we will stay on top of that. Yeah, man, I blinked more than 10. Dude, I cannot help
it. I blinked so much all the time. I said it yesterday on the stream. Look, I got LASIK eye
surgery about 10 years ago, more than 10 years ago. And since then I've had ridiculously dry
eyes and I cannot help it.
It's like that episode on Seinfeld with George Costanza with the wink, where he basically
tells someone something, and he does a little bit of a wink because he had something in
his eye.
The other person looks at him and is like, oh, okay, I'll do exactly what you tell me
not to do because that's why you're winking at me.
So kudos to all the Seinfeld fans out there.
Great to see everyone.
Nick, how are you?
I don't know what PL means.
Maybe you're talking about Planet Labs.
What is going on?
Jai, hello.
How are you, Tal?
And everyone else.
All right.
So Braun looks like Iran is now stopping Pakistani warships and crossing the street.
Dude, honestly, I just started this stream like five minutes ago.
So who the heck knows what is actually happening with these? Want to give a
shout out to Wolf Financial YouTube channel and also the Wolf Financial X account. Go ahead and
check out the content on there. If you're already streaming from there, that is great. Congratulations.
If you're on my channel, there's lots of great content out there. In fact, Gav Blacksburg,
the CEO of Wolf, just did an interview with Chris Camillo. So go ahead and check that out. I certainly will after this one, or maybe
a couple of hours after close. We always do get a lot of news after close. So yeah, I'll be checking
that one out. So thank you everyone for watching. And also, if you just tune in here, make sure you
like and subscribe and hit the notification bell on the channel. If you're on Twitter,
and subscribe and hit the notification bell on the channel. If you're on Twitter,
definitely come over to the YouTube channel and check that out. All right. So we have a little
bit of a war update that I actually take a look over here because we've probably gotten more of
an update from CNBC because I did get this about an hour ago. So let's actually see over here. You know, there's a little bit more of a war update from CNBC.
I don't know if this is.
Okay, you know what?
Let me actually play this one.
I'm not going to play the whole thing, but I'm going to play part of it just to get a little bit of catch up here.
This one's about 10 minutes long.
Definitely not going to play the whole thing.
Across the board, WTI, there it is.
It's back, though though at 90 so keep
your eye on that and thus keep your eye on the stock market but that's the relationship that
matters most of all as everybody seems to know oil down stocks up pretty simple how about another
one stocks down trump put yes pretty simple because city today says the so-called trump put
still prevails yeah i would agree with that and I think that where we found that Trump put confidence that you can find the evidence that you're
validating that optimism with obviously some form of a resolution.
So in the interim, you're going to see volumes begin to thin out.
We saw that yesterday.
We are also approaching the end of the quarter.
Again, that might lead to a little bit of volumes thinning out.
So I think you're looking for some tactical setups.
I think I found one yesterday in gold. I really think right now while you're sitting in this waiting period to confirm
the optimism, that's really your best weapon. Jenny, you can get an idea that firms are trying
to game this out a little bit. I think they can start to maybe look beyond it.
JP Morgan's trading desk says they're closing their tactically
bearish call and they're moving to neutral. Now it's just a move to neutral. However,
it does signify what I think is fair to say this cautious optimism that there's going to be some
level of resolution in the nearer term rather than having this drag out and potentially get worse and have
oil spike way up yet again and you know exactly what that would do to stocks. Right and I think
when we're thinking about kind of gamifying it and playing it out the way I've approached the
last several weeks is to really to the best of my ability ignore the politics and follow the
economics and if you follow the economics that's if you follow the economics, that's where you get,
because the economic pain right now,
or the potential economic pain right now.
Yeah, I'm glad you used the word potential,
because it's too soon to have seen significant economic pain.
Obviously, going to the pump and paying four bucks,
which is where gasoline is now.
And if you're diesel, it's a lot more than that.
Right.
And certainly in some states.
Right, and if oil really does go sustain at 115 or 180, the potential economic pain is devastating,
and it's devastating to everyone. It's devastating to everyone in the Middle East,
it's devastating to everyone in Asia, it's devastating to us in the U.S.
And so when I think about the taco or the Trump pivoting or whatever it is,
I'm really thinking of that more as follow the economics
because that's ultimately where he goes.
He goes, in the end, I think,
towards what's the best economics for the United States.
Oh, I don't know.
I think you follow the stock and bond markets.
I mean, I think those have proven to be the triggers,
if you will, that matter.
No, it's not.
No, they're not the same because, as I said,
you can't make a call
on the economy based on this yet, but you can make a call based on the stock market unraveling
and bond yields getting a little bit away from us. But I said the economics, not the economy.
Right. And the economics of what's going on is devastating for stocks. Right. If oil prices
are suddenly at 180 in a sustained way, the economics for the company.
Okay, but you know what? That was thrown out there. Say 115. All I'm saying is you follow the economics and say, okay, does this make sense? Like, how does this company work? How does that company work? And then it hits the bond markets. How do the economics work here? Well, it creates huge inflation. That's bad. So you could say it that way. I'm really not talking about the economy. I'm talking about the economics on a stock by stock basis on a company.
I'm going to jump forward to where Josh Brown talks a little bit. That one's probably a lot better to listen to than these people argue. what to watch, not to make light of or oversimplify the conflict in any way, but from an investing
or trading perspective, we do what we do, and we look at things the way we do, and looking
at that move in oil seems to be the most significant, if not the only thing that matters most of
all to this stock market right now.
I agree with everything that you've said.
The program is six minutes old.
And so far, Scott, you've done nothing but drop truth bombs.
And I'm not here to kiss up to the teacher.
But that's the number one thing on a day-to-day basis.
And if you're a long-term investor, it shouldn't matter that much.
But if you're trading this market, oil red stocks green.
Period.
There's no nuance. That's what's going on that's number one number two the other thing you said scott which jenny
is wrong and you are right we don't know the impact we we know it's a negative impact but we
don't know the extent of the impact of the price of oil on the economy i'll tell you in six months
when we have the third revision to gdp scott is correct it's
the stock market and if you think scott besant doesn't call the oval and say mr president this
is friday the s p 500 is just broken below its 200 we just got some news over here once again
markets are reacting a little bit to it i don't know if they're totally reacting to it.
I mean, the queues just did drop down a little bit.
Iran's Iraqi minister of foreign affairs just said that there are no talks with the U.S.
and we did have the market kind of react a little bit to that over here.
Intrigay, the queues did have a little bit of a red candle
here, but still range bound. I wouldn't, you know, obviously there's a lot of headlines being
thrown at the market right now. Um, do we have oil creeping up? My oil chart is a little bit
delayed. Yeah, we have USO, uh, or US oil creeping up here and that is correlated with, um, oil.
And that's probably the reason why you see
some downward moves on the market so i'm going to continue to mark i'm going to continue to
watch in this one i'm going to continue to clip to see what other commentary there is and then
i'll switch back 100 day moving average for the first time since may 2025 i'm not even saying
trump would ask well do i care or? I think it's instinctive.
And to me, it's not totally shocking. The president has to deal with real-time news and
information, not just geopolitics, but economics. And he doesn't have the economics at his fingertips.
He's got opinions, but he has the stock market right in front of him. We know this administration
cares what happens with the stock market. We know when it's going up, they view it as a report card of
sorts. So I'm not totally shocked that there was like a tweet after the close on the day that we
finally broke below the 200 day. I don't think it's an accident. And I do think the ongoing talk
of maybe a truce, here's a 15-point plan.
I think so long as the market stays green, as that news flows in that direction, you could continue to see that.
Here's the problem.
Look at the tone of the bounce.
You know what's the leading sector in the market today?
The only sector up 1% or more?
Utilities.
Utilities.
You know what's number two?
Materials.
You know what's number two materials you know what's number two health care materials
this is not this is not the environment of 2025 the problem is people don't know what time it is
they want it to be 24 25 they want it to be led by um uh cyclicals they want it to be led by tech
and it just isn't uh financials the worst sector today they're
actually the only sector red as i know he totally has a point and this is the reason why i'm always
looking at relative performance because relative performance will tell you where the strength in
the market is right so obviously the market has essentially gone nowhere for the last five months
but certain sectors have moved up pretty dramatically since then and a lot of stocks
that a lot of retail including
myself been looking at for quite some time which the tech trade which is actually the reason why
we're getting a bull market because of the whole ai trade is kind of choppy lately while not
everything in tech is going down but a significant portion especially software has been going down
the thing that kind of notice here a little bit as well as
josh was mentioning was that you do have a lot of weakness in crucial sectors in the stock market
like financials financials arguably is a good sense of where the economy is sitting at if
financials are down is a pretty good chance the financial backing of a lot of these companies, which includes the banks and the regional banks and so on, are not going to do well either.
So it's always good to keep an eye on this.
We're starting to see the S&P 500 and the Qs kind of pull back a little bit over here.
But let's also take a look at some sectors.
All right.
So let's see the sector rotation that we've been seeing for quite some time.
If I look at the year-to-date chart,
I'm going to pull this one up. Let me get rid of my drawings over here. Let me get rid of the volume.
If I look at the chart over here for USO, clearly this has been outperforming lately. It's actually
having a bit of a recovery here in the daily the uso was actually down a good amount over here
um to start the day and that since then has recovered uh if we look at uh xlf this has been falling off the cliff since the beginning of the year see here like this isn't this isn't good news
for the market when you see financials which is basically made of jp morgan bank of america and a
lot of those other large banks not performing well it doesn't really protrude a lot of confidence
for people who are investing
in the stock market.
Let's take a look over here at XO Y, which is 20% Tesla, 20% Amazon, of
course, falling off a cliff because these two stocks have been falling off
cliff since the year started healthcare, not doing so good either.
Tech, not doing so great, probably a little bit better, still below the
tour today moving average of your staples had a bit of a pullback.
So we had a little bit of
dispersion and a little bit of broadening out in the stock market for the first month but that kind
of pulled all the way back and now you're seeing financials kind of breaking down over here
industrials break not breaking down as much but still maintaining part of its uptrend materials
massive gain in the last couple of days this is something to uh really look at over here
energy is just non-stop going up like this this sector does not stop going up a lot of it has to
do with oil utilities as joshua saying is still green year to date but it has not been performing
so well and real estate just gave back all of its gains for the entire year and is now pretty much
red on the earth nearly flat in the air. Communications, Meta and Google breaking down a little bit. So below the 200 day moving average.
So your big tech sectors over here, XOY, XLK, XLC, not performing well. Where's all the strength?
It's in energy. It's mostly in utilities, mostly in materials, industrials, and so on. It's definitely not
in financials. That's still underperforming as well. So these are kind of things that you need
to look at. If your portfolio has not been doing good into the beginning of the year, it's likely
that you were already up for the last three years. So you're giving some of that back as the market
continues to broaden out a little bit. If we look at the indices on their own, IWM has actually been
recovering quite significantly in the last couple of days, IWM has actually been recovering quite
significantly in the last couple of days, but still flat year to date. The Qs are already down
year to date and so is SPY because there's a very tech heavy indices, right? The Qs especially,
that's very tech heavy. SPY is about 50% tech. So you've got to really remember that, right? So
not all sectors are feeling the pain of the stock market today.
So we'll continue to take a look at that one. All right. So I do want to get a little bit into
the next portion. I'm going to keep an eye on the stock market and see whatever headlines are coming
in. I don't see anything new coming through the wire other than what we just saw. And it looks
like Iran building up defenses of Cargarden to protect against potential u.s ground attacks iran is fort yeah fortifying cargillin it's said there is exchange of messages the
actual limit let me share this one real quick all right so well there's another job just read out
loud iran's iraq she says u.s is sending messages through different mediators uh he says that
exchange of messages via mediators. He says that exchange
of messages via mediators does not mean negotiation. So what Iran is basically saying is that the US
is basically talking to no one, right? So I think that's where kind of the fear you're seeing the
stock market is seeing a little bit of a pullback. But as you were mentioning earlier on the video,
I just showed you also want to kind of agree on is that you did have the Trump push. You did have
the Trump put when yields for the 10 year
pushing at 4.5 percent and you had oil well above 100 since then oil has pulled back dramatically
around 91 92 and you have the stock market kind of reclaiming a little bit over here uh do i have
middle eastern descent i'm half filipino half egyptian so maybe that's the reason why i don't
know i i don't look anything like i'm filipino so i just look like i'm egyptian uh fun fact i am going to egypt next week and i'm going to jordan the week
after that um totally different from what i thought was going to happen these tickets this vacation
was in plan for the last three months if i knew that first of well i did i just saw what your
handle was over there that That's actually pretty funny.
If I knew this was going to happen, I wouldn't have booked these tickets.
We actually, my family and I, we were supposed to go on this trip for years.
And we finally decided to pull the trigger and plan it.
And of course, all this happens as soon as we decide to go.
I usually go on trips, big trips, like twice a year.
We went to Europe more than a few times in the last three, four years. And of course, the one time that we decide to
visit some Middle Eastern countries, see the world wonders, see the pyramids of Giza,
the Jordanian Petra and all that stuff, that's when, of course, all this happens. So I really
hope they don't cancel my flight going there. And I especially don't hope they don't cancel
my flight coming back. But arguably, Egypt and Jordan are probably the more peaceful countries in the Middle East, not really directly involved in any conflict.
But when I did look at a map, Jordan is right smack in the middle between Israel and Iran. So
let's see what happens there. Yeah, I mean, a lot of what I see in the media, a lot of what we all
see in the media isn't necessarily a fact of what's actually happening. The media is always going to report the thing with the highest ratings, right?
So it's usually going to be bad stuff.
The media always sticks to reporting bad stuff because fear sells.
Fear sells is definitely, yeah, I know.
People think I'm Indian too.
I had a lot of Indian friends growing up.
I still do today.
I don't know.
Maybe they just think I've got my home accent.
Chris is Indian.
So is Ahmed. So maybe that kind of makes sense right so all right guys so let's move on to um the next segment over here while we continue to see spy kind of give back some of its gains
uh we have here that uh google did release uh something called turbo quant which actually isn't
isn't new at all uh They did release this quite some time
ago. Obviously, this is just something that Google releases time to time, some new features.
They basically did have Willow and you saw all the quantum stocks pull back after that. So this
is kind of like a deep seek moment for memory stocks, Micron, San sandisk are actually down pretty considerable today
let's see over here
uh micron is at 379 dollars it's down about four percent today sandisk is down about four percent
today sand is probably a stronger one in this chart most because they don't uh they don't
highly specialize in high bandwidth memory it's more like high bandwidth flash um they are getting
into high bandwidth memory they already have been getting into high bandwidth memory but it's not
something they're like a hundred percent and micron is more of the high bandwidth memory play and
along with sk hynix and samsung so you're seeing a little bit of these uh these stocks get hit
i would honestly say and i did buy the dip in micron um saying over here
that is a pretty decent setup i do want to see this recovery here on the uh 50 uh ema uh but i
don't know maybe maybe uh i was a little preemptive over there i do have a swing position in circle
and that is recovering a little bit nicely today with crypto coming back and of course the portfolio
is doing pretty good today but you know this continued weakness and down pressure on building being below the 200 moving average over here
isn't so great for a lot of tech stocks google did release turbo quants earlier this or they
announced they released it earlier this morning and that's likely why you see the weakness in a
lot of memory stocks if i look at ewi ewi is down about 50 basis points today so i'd imagine that samsung and sk heinix are taking
a little bit of a hit there and that is a good portion of the index actually i want to see if
there is a video on turbo quants because i couldn't find one earlier um there really is not one at
turbo quants for google but uh i'll try to see if I can find anything on that one.
However, for what I'm reading is that this isn't like exactly an end all be all moment
for memory stocks. I mean, if you really think about it, memory prices are through the roof,
right? This is the reason why you're seeing Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, Sandisk, and all
these other memory companies increase increase in value and increase
in terms of appreciation for stock price because their earnings are growing very rapidly in fact
micron and i don't need to really uh say this over again like a broken record but obviously micron
trades very cheap in terms of pe because their latest earnings they beat earnings by like 100
or something like that or like 50 they raise guidance like 38 billion dollars the thing is is that uh the scare is that are we at the top of this memory cycle because usually when usually
when uh stocks appear very cheap um on a relative perspective for how cheap they were maybe a few
quarters before that it usually signals that maybe this is the end of the peak growth cycle for them and historically speaking something as cyclical as
memory in the semiconductor sector is usually the last one to top when you think about this entire
cycle topping um i don't necessarily believe that to be the case i think you're going to get a lot
of profit taking i think there's a lot a little bit of scare going on in the stock market as far as member stocks go since they've been pretty much parabolic since they started their run less than a year ago
and maybe people are just a little bit worried is this the end of the memory cycle and if I look at
if I look at NVIDIA over here obviously NVIDIA does appear very cheap as well so you're going
to get a lot of these headlines that do come out that kind of scare people into selling their positions. It would have been nice to see NVIDIA hold onto that 180 range because I would
put it back above the 200-day moving average, but it doesn't exactly look like that's still
happening. But the good part is that Amazon, somebody asked me to look at the Amazon chart
earlier. So I looked at the daily chart over here. Amazon definitely looks a lot better than it did
when it had its post earnings pullback. and now we're above the 20-day moving
average and above the 9 and 20 email so we do want to see that maintain itself microsoft continues
to fall off cliff at a new 52-week low so that's like very interesting to see that software
continues to outperform and igb is down about 75 basis points and the socks is up about one percent uh that's
actually pretty good to see that it's coming up above the 50 day moving average above the ema so
maybe we did recover that short-term trend if i look at the if i look at the stocks here oh wow uh
arm arm isn't as as high as it was earlier today uh this was about 20 today i'm gonna i'm gonna
send a video i'm gonna show you guys a video about this one.
They did just get into the silicone market with a co-developed chip.
You see AMD up about 7% today.
That's actually a big gain today.
I wonder why that was up 7% today.
Micron obviously is falling off a cliff today.
You do have on semiconductor.
I'm long this one.
This one's up about 2%.
Amcor was actually up earlier, but now Amcor is red.
SMCI is bouncing a little bit.
Of course, the memory stocks are down.
TSM is green today.
And Wolfspeed is also green today.
Your data center stocks, basically flat for Nebius because it went on a massive run.
But the other ones look pretty good.
Cypher did actually sign a contract.
I think it was a $500 million contract.
I forget.
I think it was 50 Watts.
I forget the exact news for that one.
You know what?
Let me actually look that one up real quick
because that was pretty interesting
when I saw that one this morning.
That's probably the reason why we're seeing
a lot of movement on Cypher.
Here we go
let me share this one all right so cypher digital is pleased to announce the following business
updates execution of a 15-year data center campus lease with hyperscale tenants closing 200 million
revolving credit facilities supported by leading global financial institutions.
So they did sign a 15 year data center release. Actually, is there other details about this in
this press release? Additional 50 million. All right. So they basically, they didn't really
raise, they did open up a debt or basically open up a loan for $200 million with the option to go 50 million.
This is not a dilutive event. It's more of opening more debt to the company. So they basically borrowed money from, it just says the facility. It doesn't really give mention to which facility it
was. And interest rates are 1.25% to 1.75% to step down pricing based on company's total debt. All right,
so that's good. It's not that much. So I guess that's the reason why Cypher is up about 6.5%
today. You're seeing a little bit of a recovery in Nebius today, but it was down significantly
more earlier today. So I guess that's good news. the next thing i want to talk about is arm right so arm
is up 17 today because they are jumping into the silicon game as opposed to the ip licensing
let me play this clip from cnbc for you guys to see what's going on
your pivot for the business could have wide-ranging implications for the entire chip sector
christina parts and evalus with that story for today's Tech Check segment.
So, Christina, tell us about the impact of all this.
Well, Arm shares, it's really just crazy because their shares are up, what, over 17% this morning,
but not necessarily because of the new chip they're announcing.
The stock actually fell just yesterday when Arm unveiled its first in-house processor.
This is the AGI CPU with Meta as the lead customer.
OpenAI is also on board. Their turn came really with the stock when the CFO laid out aggressive financial targets
after the bell. The chip is expected to generate roughly about $1 billion in revenue by 2028 and
then scale to $15 billion by 2031. Yes, that is a massive ramp in a short window, suggesting either
strong demand visibility or a sizable order book we just haven't seen yet.
For context, Arm's total revenue today is just under $5 billion.
But Arm is entering the chip business at a time when silicon made has never been harder to achieve.
The AGI chip relies on TSMC's most advanced process, the same process capacity that NVIDIA, Apple,
Broadcom are all fighting for. A Broadcom executive just yesterday said that TSMC is
now hitting limits, a shift from what used to feel like infinite supply. Not anymore.
And the bottom legs go beyond foundry. CPU constraints from Intel and AMD are also pushing
pushing lead times from weeks to months while memory shortages are already slowing deployment
lead times from weeks to months, while memory shortages are already slowing deployment.
the market is definitely buying arms vision right now but going from 1 billion to 15 billion means
locking in massive capacity in one of the tightest supply environments the industry has seen yeah
that was another news that did come out after hours yesterday basically micron did say that
they're looking at 15 billion dollars in uh revenue for revenue in the next five years. Not total, but they're going to
be reaching basically a $15 billion run rate in accordance with this new leap they're making into
Silicon. That's probably the reason why you're seeing AMD up a lot today is because AMD doesn't
just build GPUs, they also build CPUs as well for their architecture. And that is considerable
because when you think about if you see arm coming
into this market and they're already getting a lot of partner partnerships from a lot of hyperscalers
including cloudflare as well that just means that the demand for cpu market might be doing pretty
good and that's the reason why you see intel up a lot today and that's the reason why you see
amd up a lot today as well i do wonder if there's any more CPU companies that are doing well today.
Qualcomm is up 1.2%, but that's more mobile CPUs as well. But yeah, we'll see with that.
Also, in addition to that, they did say that they're going to get $25 billion in total revenue,
total annual revenue by 2031 as well. So they are targeting $15 billion revenue uh by 2031 as well so they are targeting 15 billion
dollars in revenue by 2031 and 25 25 billion dollars in total revenue they're expecting 15
billion of the cpu revenue by 2031 and 25 billion in total revenue so they're still going to continue
their business in ip licensing for their arm architecture but they're going to add this new
business segment to their company uh which will bring in considerable sales for them, which I guess this is the reason why
the stock is up about 17% today. I'm sure it'll be up a lot more if the market maintained a lot
of its gains today, but we are seeing that the queues over here are up about 58 basis points.
IWM is still up about 1% percent today so iwm is doing pretty good
but uh let's see how much more is left in this let me play the rest of this clip
in years guys is there potential here for arm to go deeper into the broader semiconductor market
beyond just these these ai cpus 100 right because if they're they provide the the blueprint to build
all of these chips
yesterday was the announcement of a central processing unit the expectation is we're going
to see a gpu they could provide the full stack because they've been involved they've been doing
this for 35 years all of their architecture their blueprint for chips are in every single product
around you from smartphones to laptops so it seems like just a natural transition for them and that
would mean a larger total addressable market for this stock so perhaps contributing to why people are buying in
today yeah it is interesting so that's pretty much the end of that clip someone did ask me what i
think about micron on the twitter so i can't communicate or i can't chat with twitter uh
through restream i use restream right now. And if I type
in anything here, it's only going to show up in the YouTube channel. So really, if you have any
questions, go to the YouTube channel. You can either go to my channel, to Wolf's YouTube channel
and check that out and ask me any questions you like. But what do I think about Micron? I did
discuss this earlier today. Let's actually take a look at the Micron chart real quick. We can take
a look at the technicals, but I do think this a deep seek moment for um a lot of memory stocks here which means that it's just a fear
sell right it's just a headline sale like if this was really to fruition as far as google's turbo
client we would see a lot of orders being rescinded for micron we would see a lot of moves in the
sales market for a lot of memory companies basically showing that there's actually legs in
this flood that's happening right now with Google and TurboQuint. The main story is that Google
has released this new technology where basically they reduce the amount of reliance on memory
by increasing the throughput by six times. And aside from getting very technical over here,
the market seems to be reacting pretty negatively to this news.
But I would say that Micron is up a lot year to date, right?
So even pulling back 4% or even 10% or 12% since their most recent earnings doesn't mean the story is over.
It just means that maybe people are taking profits.
Maybe they're rotating into optics or maybe they're rotating into different sectors and so on. Who really knows at this point? So you really want
to look at the relative performance on a longer timeframe versus just looking at a one-day
scenario because anything can happen in a couple of days. And we've seen Micron pull back considerably.
In fact, if I look over here, remember when Micron pulled back over here to the 360s,
and then it ripped all the way over here before the earnings, right?
It made a new all-time high.
This can very easily happen.
There's no guarantee to whether this is actually going to happen.
It's just that we've seen this story before.
So it might come back.
And I'm certainly putting a bet that it will come back.
And I did buy the dip on that one.
Someone asked a question about, I thought i saw a rubric on here
yeah i can't find it um but someone did ask about rubric i mean you know there really is
nothing else to say about this um i'm obviously still very bullish in this company but keep in
mind my cost base is in the low 30s so i can deal with a little bit of heat in this stock and it was a
bigger size before but now that it's pulled back dramatically the size has gotten a lot smaller
one thing to remember with these software companies especially in cyber security is that
this is an overall software problem right I don't think Rubrik is open to being impacted
by a lot of the FUD we're seeing with Claude and a lot of AI basically replacing software,
especially this is cybersecurity. And one thing to remember is that Rubrik isn't like a SaaS
platform where it wants people to sign onto their platform and continue to use like their data feeds
or anything. Rubrik has historically been a company that takes backups, scans backups,
and is basically able to restore applications, databases, and servers to its working order based on whichever
backup they want and able to bring them back to the working order after making sure that whatever
threat there is on there whether it's a virus a hack or anything is already gone before they
restore that environment speaking of which when crowd strike did have their outage about a couple
years back rubric was one of the beneficiaries of this
because people were able to restore their application to working state before that
CrowdStrike outage did occur. The outage for CrowdStrike happened because they released an
update that messed around the kernel where basically systems could not boot after applying
the CrowdStrike update after a restart, right? So people were able to use Rubrik's recent backups to recover their systems before this issue already happened. And I would
even say that Rubrik has also gotten to a certain business sector where they're now instilling
governance for AI agents in ecosystems. So that way you don't just give an AI agent permission
to do whatever it wants and then it starts going rogue on you okay so that's very high level of how i explain that but at the same
time i don't think i think rubik's fundamentals are very good i think they're in cyber security
which is very bullish long-term in my opinion and probably should not be selling off as dramatically
as long as much as these other software stocks but it is still very early in the game they are
not a profitable company on the bottom line they are profitable free cash flow route wise but it probably won't
be another couple years that they are profitable on the bottom line but that being said guys do
your own research you got to make sure you want to be in these stocks of whole for the long haul
if you're buying rubric today it's down about one and a half percent albeit igv is down about one
percent today as well um you want to be prepared for further downside if you do buy this dip in size,
which is the reason why I've always said all the time,
if you're going to buy into some of this stuff,
why don't you split it up into like four or five different tranches of buying it,
split them out by week, and then you can just get into your position slowly.
So that way you can get the average of all of those buys versus like,
hey, this is the bottom right here.
And I'm going to put all my eggs in one basket right now.
So be very careful with that when you're buying stocks that are basically falling off a cliff, which Rubik actually is falling off cliff.
I'm not going to lie.
Did I take profit in circles?
So I did trade circle when it was at one 15.
Let me share this screen real quick.
Let me share this screen real quick.
So I did trade circle when it bounced off of, let's see here.
I believe it was over here.
I bought circle when I was around here and it went up to 128 and I sold it.
Oops.
And I sold it and it was a small position and it was just mostly a trade.
So I sold it and I was like kind of regretting it a little bit when it was jumping close to 140.
So I waited, I waited, I waited because I wanted to actually get a better entry,
more of a longer term swing when it does come to around this gap level.
So it did pull back and I know a lot of people bought it over here at the 9 EMA,
but it pulled back significantly more because I was a little bit more patient i was able to get better
entry around 98 so i am swinging this position i don't know how i'm going to swing it i think the
fundamentals of stable coins are very bullish um it was down a lot yesterday because of the clarity
act excluding the yields on stable coins and that's obviously one of circles moats when it
comes to the reason why they're offering usdc and i think this is all really going to settle out and
it's really going to be nothing uh crypto does remain relatively strong in terms of the stock
market it has actually based out and made its low at 60k so as long as you see this stability
happening here i think a lot of the underlying crypto stocks, even Robinhood, can continue to appreciate.
But of course, we do need the stock market to come up so that way we can see risk assets elevate as well.
So yeah, taking a look at that one, do your due diligence on it.
Of course, I am not a stable coin expert when it comes to this.
This is more of a technical play for myself.
Obviously, there is a lot of fundamental bullishness when it comes to this. This is more of a technical play for myself. Obviously, there is a lot of fundamental bullishness
when it comes to stable coins.
I do believe that one day stable coins will be,
I don't know if it's gonna be USDC,
but I believe that one day stable coins
will be used as the primary currency
in order to facilitate transactions
across the entire world with instant settlement.
I feel like that is the direction where we're all headed.
You're already seeing companies starting to instill that in their ecosystems. And it's really only a matter
of time until that happens. And being that circle is the custodian of USDC, they're probably going
to be the largest beneficiary. It's one of the largest beneficiaries of it. In addition to
Coinbase, Coinbase actually also has not been doing too well either yeah coinbase is
doing too well either so i think again this is more of a scare than anything but you know i could
be wrong uh being that it is a long-term swing i will definitely stop myself out if we do get a
nasty close below the 98 range ideally i don't want to see this break the 50 ema uh at 95 so uh wouldn't mind holding on to
that one uh for a little bit all right so i did want to play this uh clip from dan ives where he
discusses his tech trade you know what actually i i'm trying to look for something more on the war to see if they did say.
We saw that OpenAI is shutting down Sora
and XAI is trying to take advantage of it.
All right, let me just play this one real quick.
White knuckle moment, I mean, you know-
I do wanna get your thoughts on just the steep sell-off
we have continued to see here in tech. Yeah, look, it's a white knuckle moment. I mean, you know, I do want to get your thoughts on just the steep sell off we have continued to see here in tech.
Look, it's a white knuckle moment. I mean, you know, if you look at what is a white knuckle moment.
But in our view, look, in decades of covering tech, I mean, we're going to go through geopolitical macro issues.
But our view is, is that if you look at the base case here, it's something where we talk about a matter of weeks rather
than a matter of months.
The tech trade continues to be well intact.
And I think the sell off represents the opportunities in the AI revolution, specifically also when
you look at names like cybersecurity and software that I actually view is defensive and they've
actually outperformed.
Interesting.
I mean, we get the RSA cybersecurity conference this week.
I think
you're headed there. Cyber, to
your point, especially when you
look at geopolitical landscape
and Iran and capabilities in that
country as well, just look no
further than striker and the
attack there. What would you be
buying in cyber right now and
how should you be thinking about
those capabilities? I think
that's my view. I mean, that's the defensive area of tech in terms of cybersecurity. And I continue to think that AI ghost trade around software has been way overdone.
CrowdStrike, Z-Scale, or Powell Out, I think Checkpoint's another one.
I think cybersecurity, and obviously we'll be there this week at RSA, it's going to outperform.
Because you also have to think about when you have events like this, what in tech can outperform?
Cybersecurity, I think, is front and center is what's going to be actually a subsector tech can outperform cyber security things front and
center is what's gonna be actually sub sector that will outperform
specifically over the coming weeks and months to go near anything else in
software is that really that's really look I continue think that the AI goes
trade the software sell-off continues to be the most disconnected trade I've
seen my career and I think you've seen software has outperformed the last few
weeks because it goes back to
Anthropic.
I think ever since they did that event, it's sort of a bottoming.
That's where our sales force service now.
I look at Oracle, Microsoft.
Maureen, my view is if you look out, this is still a fourth industrial revolution.
That's not changing because of what we're going through in terms of this nervous environment
here.
And I think when you look at moments we've had over the years go back to liberation day a year ago.
Tech continues to be what I believe will ultimately lead this market higher.
Software, cyber security I think are some of the most disconnected areas and that's why we'd be on those.
What about semis right now because they've continued to sell off.
I mean micron had a blowout quarter last week.
It sold off and video has basically been sideways for months now. Look, I think that's if I look at, you know,
we've been at Palantir. Our team's been at NVIDIA's GTC. Demand 12 to 1 versus supply in terms of AI
revolution. And I think this you're seeing right now semis is where everyone was hiding out. The
risk off trade's there. But that's where NVIDIA, Micron, AMD, I think those are names you continue to own.
Because look, we're only in year three of an eight, ten year build out.
And I think it's very easy in these environments, these white knuckle environments, to get caught
up in maybe some of these sort of dystopian views.
When you look at tech, these are the times to own semis and software.
But you got to have more of a barbell approach in terms of defensive and offensive, and that's the way to play it.
Yeah, so I agree with Dan. I mean, cybersecurity is probably the most important one. I think a lot of it is fun, but I don't think every single software stock is going to perform as well in the near term and also the media term
because some of them are actually open to disruption. I mean, I'm not going to lie.
Like if you look at a company like Workday or Team or sorry, Atlassian, which the ticket symbol
is Team, they have a product that someone can easily build in-house to use for the company
where it's not so important to have so much compliance
reliance on it right so if you think about project management tools like jira or confluence for
documentation why would it really matter how how solid this software is in terms of someone hacking
and getting all the information that they want versus a cyber security product where like okay
well that's crucial like i would not expect a company to build an in-house cybersecurity platform and start using that
across their entire ecosystem. That would either take time to get approved for all the compliance
and also all the SOX testing, but also on top of that, keeping it updated and everything,
that takes a lot of time and manpower in order to do all that work, which makes sense why you
would want to outsource your cybersecurity products, right? But when you think about project management or
something as much as documentation, you can vibe code that in like a couple of hours, like clearly
on a larger scale, like an enterprise, like meta or something, they're probably not going to do that.
But if you think of these smaller businesses, right, if you think of a company that uses monday.com, that would be pretty disruptive. If a smaller company of like 20
people would just easily vibe code their own product in-house to manage your CRM and just
start using that, they could turn around, they could save like a few thousand dollars a month.
Right. So those are the kinds of things where it's like, maybe not by the dip in certain
companies might be exposed to this and maybe by the dip on certain things that are crucial, like cybersecurity.
Right.
So that's probably the reason why you're seeing a lot of the sell off.
And it's it's also broadening out to other parts of software, not just not just teams management or CRM or anything like that.
Someone asked, what's my year to date performance?
I'm right year to date. i'm not doing i'm not doing
that great right now i'm underperformed sp500 unfortunately um but uh when you do underperform
sp500 that means that when the sp500 comes back then i'm going to be outperforming sp500 so
i think i'm down like single digits high single disc i think like 98 i gotta double check that
one it was significantly worse last week or
later last week and earlier this week but it has gotten a lot better because some of my largest
holdings uh have have bounced back considerably amazon and core on semiconductor and so on
um so you know continue to hold on to that one and i don't do a lot of options trading this year
options trading has really helped a lot with the gains from last year, but I've significantly reduced my options exposure probably in the first 50 days, 45 days of the year because I was the downside. Last year was a great year to own a
lot of options with leaps. This year, maybe not so much, especially since we're getting tons of
chop to get shaken out of position. If you have 50% of a position in options, if the stock is down
four or 5%, your entire position will be down 20%. That would suck for a big position that's
8% of my portfolio. I was up significantly year-date at a certain point, but like everyone, we saw a bit of a pullback in tech,
including my large positions, and I didn't reduce the size of those options quick enough to be able
to reduce that drawdown. So unfortunately, I'm not green year-to-date, but some of the holdings
that I've been buying and been rotating into have been performing pretty well lately like
speaking of which marvel technology is up about 10 for my entry so that one's performing pretty
well um we'll see what happens with a few other things but i did post my portfolio on my s account
if you want to check that one out it is behind the paywall of course um but if you have any
questions just go ahead and ask me just for probably the sake of not giving away too much information.
I mean, I could tell you exactly what my holdings are if you ask me, but I'm not going to go down with it on the list.
Everyone already knows the majority of my portfolio is Amazon.
Other large portions of my portfolio are on Semiconductor, Amcor, Nebius, of course, Hood, Mercado Libre.
And that really is going to justify
the movement of where my portfolio is going in the short term um if i if this was a much better
environment like let's say we are above the 200 day moving average on spine queues i would probably
start exercising more concentration in options trades but this just is not the environment to do
it right yeah i know i get i understand the
fear and greed index is low but that doesn't mean that we bought them you know what that's actually
a good point that you did bring that one up so i'm going to look at a couple of things today
these are some things that i do look at uh on a weekly basis not a daily basis because i'm not
trying to trade the intraday or anything but if i look at this naaim exposure index this is basically the average
exposure to u.s equity marks reported by members so it's like a subset of fund managers that are
reporting whether they are 100 long the market which is at 100 whether they're 100 short the
market which is minus 100 or whether they are extremely leveraged in the market which is 200
right and if i look at last week's average, sorry,
if I look at last week, it was at 60 and this is out of a hundred. If I go all the way back here
to last March, actually, this is last February. We had an all-time high in the stock market before
we plunged down for the Liberation Day. It was at 91 and you could see this number started to
droop lower and lower and lower and basically bottomed out in the middle of April, which is basically where we bottomed out at 35. So we're sitting here at about 64, right? And when it was at 64, the S&P 500 was at 5,700. So just because you have positioning at its lowest, it doesn't mean it can't go lower.
because you have positioning at its lowest, it doesn't mean it can't go lower.
If we look at over here, this was when we were at the most recent all-time high around
end of January, mid-February, this number was going down. So it was like kind of a warning
shot over here. Now, let me switch over to the CNN fear and greed index.
And we're at a 19 right now at extreme fear, right?
So you could have said that fear and greed was actually at,
let's see over here, a month ago, this was at 45,
which was considered neutral to fear, right? And you could have bought the dip pretty hard,
but a month ago, we were about 5% higher in S&P 500.
Also, if I go back over here to, oh, I can't go that much further back. If I go back over here to about a year ago,
the fear and greed index was about 29. And the S&P 500 dropped even lower after that. It got
dropped like another 10, 15%. So you can't really use this as your primary indicator.
You can use it as maybe a tool in the tool belt to figure out the best time to buy the dip,
but it's never going to give you an exact signal at when that buyable dip actually is.
I would prefer to buy the recovery versus buying the absolute bottom because no one knows where the absolute bottom is. If I look at the markets
over here and I look at SPY, right now we're below the 2% moving average. I've been doing a
little bit of buying lately, but I've also been stopping myself out in a few positions because I
don't want to go red on certain things that I'm opening. During a time like this, I usually stay
about 10% cash to take advantage of opportunities in the market. I did find a couple certain things that I'm opening. During a time like this, I usually stay about 10% cash
to take advantage of opportunities at the market. And I did find a couple of things that I did want
to go long, but I am not willing to sit in a massive drawdown in new positions that I'm opening.
So I will stop myself out. And a couple of new positions that I did open lately were Circle and
Micron. So if these pull back dramatically, I will close them and they'll give me about 8% cash,
right?
So it's a little bit of trading that I'm doing around that one.
The majority of the portfolio just stays long, right?
So my on-set connector, Amcor, Nebius, Amazon, I haven't really touched those positions lately.
Did a little bit of trims in Nebius probably last October, but didn't really do much in terms of the shares in the positions, maybe sold some options, which did give me a good amount of cash.
So the warning shot over here was back here when we kept on testing the 100-day moving average in SV500 or the SPY, right?
Before that, we kept testing the 50-day moving average.
Before that, we kept testing the 20-day moving average.
These are kind of like warning shots over here. And then we tested the 50-day moving average. Before that, we kept testing the 20-day moving average. These are kind of like warning shots over here.
And then we tested the 200-day moving average here.
We kept bouncing, bouncing, bouncing.
But then we broke below it.
And since then, we're still trying to recover here.
So it's tough to say where this actually is going to go.
And that's actually a lot of uncertainty in the market.
Like, I don't know if this is like the kind of market where you want to be trading options too much, especially because you can get your face ripped off if you have like a 3% down date in any of the stocks you want.
So it's probably better you concentrate your positions or maybe stay in positions that are part of secular themes of relative outperformance.
part of secular themes of relative outperformance. And that's kind of where I want to position myself
because when the stock market does recover, or if you see any type of recovery, you see a
significant outperformance in the leaders of the stock market. Like for example, if we look at
Marvel technology, you're seeing this have a very green day, right? So ever since our most recent
earnings, they gapped up and they've been coming down. They never went below the 100-day moving
average. And you could see here just the other day it bounced off of the 100 day moving average it went up right
and it's still above the 9 ema it's still above the 21 ema if i look at uh fastly this is what i
bought about 19 bucks like around here and it's been finding a lot of support off the 90 may in
fact when we were down yesterday this thing was actually fairly flat and when we recovered on
monday this had a massive green day and you're having continued to have a decent
green day today, even after a modest gain in the stock market. So those are the kinds of things
that I look for in the stock market are things of relative outperformance. This isn't like a buy
everything market, but it's more of a buy tactically, right? So buying things that are going up or flat or outperforming on a relative
basis when the market's down, because when the market goes back up, they're going to do well.
There was, there's a lot of dip buying going on in software stocks, right? Even service now is
down one and a half percent today, even though the market's green. I thought this was it after here.
And it came back here and I thought, okay, it's going to find support in the 20 day moving average.
You're going to find support in the nine to 21 EMA ema and it didn't it just fell right through it so
i'm not gonna buy a stock on relative under performance right yeah someone says a 50 cash i
can really never do that that's it's very difficult for me to go like 100 cash because
one there's a lot of long-term gains in the table but two i don't want to be sitting here guessing
when the bottom of the market is there'll be like too much pressure and stress i'd rather do it like 10 maybe 20 of my
portfolio but besides that i can't really do that with that but you got to do you you know you do you
if you truly believe you'll get a lot of better price in the stock market and so be it i know a
lot of people that went all cash last february not not last month, but the other February, a year ago. And then they
bought the dip in like May or March and congratulations or April and congratulations,
you did it. I am not that good to do that. I don't think I could do that. And honestly,
a lot of the companies that I'm in, I really do believe in that in the long-term, they're going
to do well. I'm here for mostly the long-term gain while getting a little bit of upside in the longterm, they're going to do well. I'm here for mostly the longterm gain while getting a little bit of upside in the short term. So we will see what happens. Uh, that was a little bit
of solid talk for you guys. Thank you everyone for being over here. Have a considerable amount
of people watching the stream right now. Really appreciate you guys. If you haven't already,
go ahead and hit the like, subscribe button, turn on notifications. I usually stream around 2 45 PM
Eastern, uh, Monday through Thursday with the exception
of Friday while appearing, you know, occasionally in Amit's live streams, Steve's live stream
or whatever it is.
Um, like I mentioned earlier on the, uh, Wolf YouTube, they actually gave Blacksburg
interview Chris Camillo, um, which would be a pretty cool interview.
I wish I had time to be in that one, but obviously too working too much during the day, but,
uh, I'm going to go check that one out. I'm going to go in that one but obviously too working too much during the day but uh i'm gonna go check that one out i'm gonna go check that one out later on
oh yeah guys thanks for uh thanks for joining in really appreciate you a lot of you guys probably
gonna head over omit's live stream probably head over there maybe in the stocks and spaces
and let's see how we're gonna close today in fact let me bring up
the market to see where we're going to be closing today.
the market to see where we're gonna be closing today
I mean, basically a lot of chop.
Probably going to see some news after the market close
like it always does all the time.
But overall, a lot better than we were last Monday for sure.
Hopefully, we see new highs.
And I'm really hoping we get above that 200 day moving average,
which isn't that much up from here. It's about 1% from the 200 day moving average here on the
Qs. For SPY, it's only up, yeah, it's about 1%. So we need a good move up in the stock market.
Maybe we're going to get it this weekend if we do see a resolution with the war. But we did see,
But we did see, look, guys, last year we saw the same thing happen with China, right?
Coming out of the April Liberation Day, there was a lot of back and forth.
Trump is saying he's making a deal with China.
China is saying, no, we're not making a deal with you, denying all of it.
And then one day we see there's a deal with China, right?
So don't get confused by these headlines, right?
I think what we need to do is look at price action.
We're not making lower lows. Oil is still below a hundred bucks. We're seeing Trump talk about a
lot of stuff. You know, he says certain things that might be a little bit exaggerated, but at
this point, I think they are talking. In fact, the, the minister of foreign affairs of Iran said that
the U S is talking to mediators, but that doesn't mean
they're negotiating, right? So it's a little bit of he said, she said, but at least we're starting
to see some clarity from Iran's side and confirmation that there are negotiations
happening, even though they're saying they're not happening, but there is talking, right?
Personally, I believe that negotiations are happening. I believe the war is coming to an end.
And I think the stock market is kind of sniffing that out,
which is the reason why you're not seeing low and lows.
How this means for software stocks?
Guys, I have no idea how this means for software stocks.
We'll see.
I mean, it's not looking for software right now.
But anyways, guys, appreciate you tuning in.
Thanks for watching.
See you guys tomorrow.
Same time, 2.45 p.m.
Take care.
