Is the 4-Year Cycle DEAD? 💀

Recorded: March 31, 2025 Duration: 1:06:30
Space Recording

Short Summary

The transcript discusses significant developments in the crypto space, including large Bitcoin purchases by institutional investors, potential regulatory changes in China, and the introduction of new financial products like Solana's in-kind staking ETFs. There is a strong focus on Bitcoin's growth potential and its increasing correlation with traditional financial markets. Additionally, the FDIC's regulatory shift allowing banks to engage in crypto activities is highlighted as a major development.

Full Transcription

everything twitter we all have twitter so how is everybody mand i'll start with you
yeah it's been a it's been a bit of a roller coaster again this week um for everything but
bitcoin i feel like bitcoin's kind of been where it's been for the last three or four weeks in this
very very tight range probably like a five to ten percent range um macro has not had a great week
um still feels like crypto is slightly outperforming.
At least Bitcoin is.
Bitcoin dominance continues to go higher.
I kind of think that it's a repeat of what I said last week.
I think this points to us being in a longer chop
where crypto outperforms the stock market.
Or at least Bitcoin does.
Interesting.
And we've seen what's happened to
gold gold is full-on risk off people are stacking gold like crazy and i'm i'm saying everybody on
the planet knows gold 2.0 is bitcoin it's far superior in every single way possible that should
be at least when i see gold go up i personally get excited it's not that i own any gold or i've
ever owned gold but it's only it's a harbinger of what's to come cto how are you sir i am fantastic it's very interesting point in the market and i'm
dying to show some charts as usual we'll get to those for sure and a whole much more and maybe some
of your deep thinking too and marty what's on everybody are we doing now I'm great I'm
terrific exactly where we I thought we'd be pretty much copying 2017 in my opinion um I've
got some charts to show that too later we can we can get into that um I I think we're doing
fantastic we're always lagged beyond global liquidity and gold and gold is making its run
which means it's just a matter of time before bitcoin does the same
um yeah i'm positive i mean not much change i think the price is exactly where we were last week on the show correct exactly q2 started yesterday guys q2 is the big quarter um i think
we're going to see a lot of changes this q2 and obviously today we've got uh the federal government
rolling over their debt and tomorrow the
reciprocal tariffs starting so expect a lot of volatility over the beginning of april but i think
april is going to be a good month so uh yeah let's lead into the data thanks guys tomorrow's april
1st very special day for many reasons and then we have a lot of other good stuff coming so let's get
into the agenda real quick so people know what's coming. We're going to talk about will Bitcoin take off or is the cycle dead?
And we'll look at the four-year cycle.
Is it over or not?
Or is it different this time?
And then we have some experts like Tom Lee and Uncle Larry,
Lawrence Lopard, says Bitcoin crashed and then 250K rally.
And Tom Lee has some very good things to say as well.
Just 34 minutes ago,
Sailor buys a massive bag of 22,000 Bitcoin.
That's 22,000 whole coiners denied, not wholesalers.
And then a whole bunch more stuff.
We'll talk about Liberation Day.
The markets around the world globally are being hammered because of Liberation Day.
We'll get into that.
And 58% of investors think gold is golden in a trade war,
which again goes back to what we spoke about.
When will Bitcoin follow gold?
Other huge news on the macro side, on the US side,
on the pro-crypto side, FDIC, SAC doing a lot of good stuff.
Tariffs, again, more rattling of markets.
We'll talk about maybe the UK and the sovereign debt crisis
from James Van Stratton.
Six all ETFs that are filed.
Amanda, we'll get to you on China, unbanning crypto and China QE, and other stories that pop in live as we speak.
But let's get into the first story.
Bitcoin takeoff in May.
I spent some time analyzing this and everybody has analyzed this.
I spent some time analyzing this, and everybody has analyzed this.
Raoul Pal, a guy called Colin Talks Crypto and the correlation between Global M2 and the Bitcoin price.
It is staggeringly tight and you can all build your own charts and trading view and you can showcase this.
But I dug into this and a whole lot more and also forecasted the impact of how much new liquidity has happened so far year to date is about $4.5 trillion and how much of that could go into the S&P 500 as well as Bitcoin.
And it's fascinating.
So from my perspective, I do not see the Bitcoin bull run being over.
I do see the four-year cycle being modified due to etfs etc and sailor heavy buying by treasuries
but i will start once again with you mando is the bull market over the question that everybody
keeps asking because i like literally 20 to 30 percent of people think it is i don't think the
bull market's over but but it but that's really a bitcoin question i think more than anything else
i think um i think bitcoin can continue to push higher.
I do think that we're probably in a temporary downward period here for Bitcoin.
Do I think the four-year cycle is over?
I've been saying I didn't really believe in the four-year cycle for a while now,
and that we would get less deep sell-offs in crypto, or at least in Bitcoin, just because of the
institutional bid that was now coming in, uh, and the market structure had now changed.
That's arguably what you could think this is. Like it's just been a smaller retracement,
um, which has been linked to a bit of a macro sell-off, um, but that we should turn back up
with, uh, with what we've seen in kind of global liquidity and gold. I do think that we're going to have,
we're going to retain that correlation to gold and global M2 or global
liquidity, however you want to define it.
Up until now, we've had this correlation alongside the stock market too,
as your CTO has been following as well.
We've been slightly outperforming that over the last couple of weeks,
and I think that will continue.
I do think that Bitcoin, at least,
will outperform any downward move here in the U.S. stock market.
And we're actually seeing that today.
We're seeing the U.S. stock market, Nasdaq, etc. tanking.
We saw different markets around the world tank last night,
Korea, Japan, etc. tanking. We saw different markets around the world tank last night. Korea, Japan, etc.
Bitcoin is holding up because it flushes
over the weekend. Marty,
two questions.
Are we going to take off in May
based on global liquidity?
And is the four-year cycle over?
Yeah, you guys,
I mean, a couple of months ago, remember,
I said that I think the four-year cycle
is very modified um i think we're moving more to a super cycle um i think that we all have to accept
that the last time we printed money or injected new liquidity into the economy was in 2020.
that's five years ago guys so all of the appreciation and expansion, the word is expansion.
You know, the four-year cycle, for those that are listening, is basically accumulation after halving, right?
Accumulation, expansion, peak, and then correction.
So if you think about it like that, where are we now?
I think that we haven't had an injection in liquidity.
that we haven't had an injection in liquidity the the price appreciation of bitcoin especially has
come from institutional investment taking advantage of the bear market brought us up to where we were
took took us up to 100k on the trump nomination we've kind of corrected back we haven't given up
all 68 but in my opinion we're we're we haven't hit expansion i believe expansion hits when we turn from
quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and if we all are very familiar with the current
macro cycle we're an extremely delayed quantitative easing announcement that they're stretching you
know this this process as long as they can i think when we get there we
will finally know whether we catch up with the four-year cycle we'll see the expansion and
everybody's talking 150 to 300 000 will be the top towards the end of the year you know some people
say august some people say september this year i think that's when we'll really know in my opinion
we've started stealth quantitative easing. I have evidence to
that matter. And I think it's just a delayed cycle. But as far as the typical four-year cycle,
I think it's changing. And I think you're right. The nature of the bid is different, Mando. The
people involved are different. The money is different. And we haven't had an injection of
new liquidity, which is always the thing that boosts the expansion and into the peak. And we haven't had an injection of new liquidity, which is always the thing that boosts the expansion
and into the peak.
And we haven't had that yet.
So there we are.
And this chart, by the way, it highlights orange
is where we are right now.
And per APSK, top-notch analyst, he
believes we could be 200,000 by year end.
It is not over.
But the cycle is different.
We saw we hit a new all-time high before the halving.
That never happened in the history of Bitcoin.
So it's as if Bitcoin is running prematurely and then takes a breather.
And that's the big thing.
James, you have to ask yourself.
Go and ask 10 random people in your life.
If they got $50,000 of new money, what would they do with it right now?
You would find that a lot of them will
put it in bitcoin okay they want to invest they just don't have money the retail is literally on
the last legs credit card debt is maxed the minute liquidity comes i believe a far bigger majority of
it but based on previous cycles, will go into crypto.
And that's what we're waiting for.
In the US, 12%, 13% of people are behind on their car payments.
For car loans, a lot of Americans borrow to buy cars, whereas in Europe you pay cash.
But also, I think 6.2 million people are behind on their mortgage payments. 6.2 million homes could be foreclosed upon.
That is scary. And that shows you, marty there is no cash in the kitty cto over to you buddy what's going on what do you
see so of course i'm thinking a few things here the bars are Bitcoin and
the purple line is the S&P 500 stocks and as you can see here they just follow each other and
I would say it's Bitcoin that follows stocks not the other way around. And the second thing we can quickly observe, what both of you
said, or Amanda, you said as well, that Bitcoin has in fact held up better than stocks in this
dump relative to the usual size of their movements, right? Bitcoin tends to be more volatile than the
whole stock market. But if you normalize for that, I mean, these two tend to just follow each other.
And as you can see here, Bitcoin has gone down in the same pattern as stocks, but slightly less.
And why is that happening?
Perhaps because of the size of a sailor purchases, similar players like that have bought so big
volume that it actually impacts the price.
But overall, Bitcoin is simply following stocks right now.
You can wake up every day, check the S&P 500 futures, and you know with almost certainty if Bitcoin will go up or down that day.
It's basically day by day, hour by hour, it moves in the same direction.
It's even more correlated with the QQQ.
And you can go even in more detail if it's more correlated with the QQQ.
You can find individual stocks that's even more correlated with.
Absolutely right. But it's not correlating with gold because gold is moving in another direction.
It is inversely correlated with gold at this point. So today, Bitcoin is behaving as a speculative
asset, something that you want to make money on. So if you think the stock market is going to go up,
people buy Bitcoin. If they think stock market is going to go down, they sell stocks and their Bitcoin as well. That is the
situation right now. And then exactly like Marty said, if there comes then a bunch of liquidity
into the system, if we inject a lot of money, what are people going to do? They're going to
buy a bunch of stuff. They're going to buy US equities and Bitcoin,
and both are going to go out
that can almost guarantee what happens so we that's the situation we're in and then comes
basically the next question then and that is uh you know when is the stock market turning around
and i think that's something that's very interesting to try to understand here, because that's maybe
the best clue we have. Despite sailors' huge buy, it was not enough to turn this around.
We need the overall economy in the US and it's specifically the US stock market that is correlated
with here. It's not correlated with a Chinese stock market or something else. It's the US stock market. That is the clue.
And so that's the first thing to observe. The other thing to observe is that the trend is down here.
So that has to change. We have to get back into this range. We're not going to go to $1 million
with the trend down. So there's no need to be too stressed here. It's going to turn around at some point. We can't
miss it. We're going to sit there every week and there's no risk to miss the turnaround. So I think
there's no need to be too stressed or scared to miss it either. And I don't know if the stock
market is turning around here. I don't think we will have this catastrophic mega crash. I don't
think the Trump administration wants to crash the stock market another 30-40% or something. No,
I don't think so. But I don't know exactly when it will turn either. And I'm happy to hear your
thoughts on that. Yeah, there's a lot of interesting stuff
behind the curtain, as they say.
And remember, people say it's Trump doing this.
No, it's not.
It's three self-made billionaires that know markets,
and they know how to make money, and they know how
to protect the US.
And there will be, as we've said for many months now,
short-term pain before the medium to long-term gain.
That's what's going to happen.
And this is all happening in confluence with the global liquidity that's going to kick in too.
But there's more good stuff behind the scenes.
We have people like Tom Lee coming up today, like 34 minutes ago on CNBS, saying 80,000 is a good time to be stacking Bitcoin and it'll go to 150k or higher this year,
which is kind of crazy. And then Lawrence Lepard was on Simply Bitcoin and he said, crash, and this
is a while back, so crash break, you know, where we are now, the 80k, 78k, 83k level, and then a big rally to 250 000 now i'm going to ask each one you start you cto first
is this hopium or is this does this have legs like tom lee you know he has been extremely good
on picking certain assets like bitcoin like tesla Nailing bottoms, he's got a team of technical analysts.
And he sees this in the cards.
Do you see it?
I mean, long term, obviously, I'm extremely positive to Bitcoin.
There is, I mean, the situation has never been remotely this good for Bitcoin.
That is clear.
There is no doubt about that.
So of course, long term, I'm super positive. And I think the
stock market will turn around at some point, then Bitcoin turns around. And my base guess is that we
resume uptrend, as we always do. So that's my thought. I think over time, for sure, we will go much, much higher. I don't know exactly when.
In the four-year cycle, I'm not sure.
First, I didn't believe in it at all.
Then I kind of felt that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Perhaps it has some point.
Now I'm not so sure anymore.
I see it as an interesting exercise, but at the end of the day, I will just follow price.
it as an interesting exercise but at the end of the day I will just follow price. If that's been
my tactic, well this year is not going to change it. And then Mando, does the lack in activity on
chain bother you at all around Bitcoin? And I don't think that has anything to do with price at all,
the fact that the chain is not busy because it is much more of a store of value than an actual
functional chain. I think there's a lack of activity on a lot well at least there's definitely a downturn activity on most chains um whether that that worries me i i don't know like this
is a sort of time where you can buy things that you think are going to be uh going to be active
maybe next year or towards the end of this year at better prices. So maybe it's a good exercise in what looks cheap.
It definitely feels as though crypto has lost some of the focus.
Like if you look at Google search trends, crypto is down quite a lot,
like back to kind of some of the lows of last year.
And you can see that in the amount of activity happening on even the most active
chains like Solana and Bitcoin too. I think this is a good time to not try and rush it.
I do think it can take a little bit longer than people expect often these periods. You
don't necessarily need to buy into momentum at momentum at any one point i uh i still think though if you're talking about bitcoin specifically uh it's the one that
has a different sort of investment thesis to a lot of the others i am i'm not negative on the
u.s stock market but i do think that that the issues around some of the magnificent seven
particularly around ai and and how much of their
value was attributed to them having a global dominance on that, I think is something that
isn't going to go away. Like it's not something that just like, because it's down, people will
buy it. I think people are kind of a little bit scared about that. There's some fear there. So my base case here is just that crypto
outperforms and it becomes more like gold. So I'm definitely more bullish on Bitcoin than I am on
other things right during this period. But as we come out and activity starts to pick up again,
then you can buy some amazing L1 trades, I think as well.
Yeah. And it's very interesting.
There's so much confusion.
I noticed I did a chart a few days ago on the ETH BTC,
basically a five-year low.
There was another tweet from some guy who bought ETH seven years ago,
and he made 30% in seven years, and he's very disappointed.
He thought that would be life-changing money.
And if you take debasement away from that 30% gain over seven years, you're toast. You got completely wrecked. But this is a question that came in
from looks like a Kiwi. Shout out to the Kiwis there in New Zealand. Dennis Marshall, what are
you guys expecting the SOL ETFs will do to the price? Do you think it will follow Bitcoin's path
or ETH path in regarding to the price following ETF starting? I'll take this first. Now I'm gonna kick it to you, Marty, because this is the six solid ETFs now filed,
but a lot of people were trapped in the ETH ETF,
and that's why it's sold off.
And also now TradFi is beginning to understand
the importance of adoption, et cetera.
And it's very clear, and it has been to all of us here
for years that the layer twos have cannibalized
the layer one ETH, and it has a massive problem
I'm surprised Vitalik didn't see that so no I do not think the SOL ETF will follow the same path
as the ETH ETF and also a huge ton of SOL is staked much higher ratio than Ethereum ETF so
it's going to be much harder it's a much much smaller asset. There'll be a lot of money coming, especially in light of the RWA narrative, stablecoin narrative, etc.
Marty, what do you think of this? And I'll pop this up real quick if I can. You got to remove this first. I'm trying to share another slide. Maybe I can. Yeah, let me, I'll answer the previous question with generally, with Bitcoin
right now where we are. I mean, we all just have to zoom out. I think zooming out is important
right now. We have to understand that last year we were at $30,000 in the bottom of the bear market,
right? We went from 30 to 50. We nearly doubled. Then we did a 300-day consolidation. That's one vector.
Then we doubled again. We went from 50,000 to 100,000. That's your second vector. That's how Bitcoin works. Now we're in the third accumulation for the final vector. And the final vector will
double where we are now. We'll go to 150,000 to 160,000. That'll be a cycle. Just focus on that. The little noise in between, whether we're correlating with stocks, that's just the in-between stuff.
We're on a transition in systems. The financial system is moving from a centralized central bank system to a decentralized Bitcoin-based stablecoin system.
decentralized, Bitcoin-based stablecoin system.
And that transition takes time.
It's not easy.
And we're in the middle of it right now.
What we're waiting for now is regulatory clarity
for all these things to hit the Senate floor and get voted in.
States are not going to buy Bitcoin higher, guys.
They're not going to buy Bitcoin higher.
They're going to buy Bitcoin lower around this level.
So wait for that.
You've got to wait for states to enter.
You've got to wait for the regulations to pass,
and then we'll see the final vector.
That's my opinion.
We'll see how that goes.
Then, yes, there's seven sole ETFs.
Seven is this.
Seven, not six.
Fidelity filed two weeks ago.
They even updated their filing.
Their filing is the most aggressive.
It uses that 14.11 E4 rule change. I studied the
BZX rulebook in detail and basically it defines Solana as a commodity already. The volatility
shares listing Solana as futures and it's currently trading means the CFTC has already
reclassified Solana as a commodity. The CME has now Bitcoin, Ethereum,
and Solana on their dashboard, tracking the prices as a commodity. So it looks like we have a big
three. And the next will be the Solana ETF approvals. They'll be the first in-kind staking
ETFs. I think it's going to be a big stir on the stock market. It truly is a tech stock.
Ethereum was obviously first, but it's not a great technology.
As a tech investor, I would not invest in an Ethereum ETF.
A Solana investment is different.
It's more of a technology.
I think Solana is the next Linux.
I think it's the next big open source software
that will be used, implemented, forked by, you know, corporations. This is a piece of software
that has infinite use cases. So I think this is truly going to be a very different ETF.
The next one we're waiting for, obviously, is BlackRock's application. I look every day.
I think it's coming. It's just a matter of time. But yeah, I think the sole ETFs are going to be
much bigger than the Ethereum ETFs, just on a technical perspective. I just think it's a
better technology. And also priced. Yeah. And then the other big story is, of course, this one.
And the other big story is, of course, this one.
Sailor, 22,000 Bitcoin is a substantial bag.
They now have 528,000.
If you add up Coinbase, MicroStrategy, who else?
Who are the big players, Marty?
The big players?
Binance, Coinbase, MicroStrategy. Yeah, let me look microstrategy here we go boys um coinbase has
1 million 9 000 they're just past 1 million just remember this is not they own it people
constantly have to feel this when i say coinbase has a million i mean they have the keys to a
million bitcoin legally they own very little. I think
Coinbase own 54,000 Bitcoin personally. I'll have to check, but it's around 50,000. The rest is
legally owned by their customers and they hold it as custody for third parties. But they have the
keys for a million Bitcoin. Binance has 632,000. BlackRock 575,75 000 and strategy today with the acquisition moves up to 530 000.
so they're knocking on blackrock's door uh they're knocking on bonanza's door and
you can see the arms race is heating up between those big four yeah it's a it's extremely big
this is a lot of people use this as kind of a narrative.
This is from Vivek.
Sailor, spend 100 hours learning how to keep your money.
You spend 40,000 hours of your life trying to make money.
It's worthwhile to spend 100 hours figuring out how to keep it.
Now, historically, man, I'll give this to you because I am faced every single day with latecomers to the market, top buyers.
They're crushed.
They're destroyed.
Their heart is broken.
And they're very disenfranchised right now.
Obviously, we say for years, getting early, getting hard.
It's so important.
But this now narrative, if you look at the last all-time high back in 2021,
debase it compared to today, Bitcoin hasn't gone anywhere from top to top.
What would you say to people, Mando?
That's a bit of a deep question about this type of narrative.
Bitcoin will save you.
Is that still valid?
I mean, Saylor started buying Bitcoin or started buying Bitcoin with MicroStrategy in 2020.
August 2020, yep.
All right.
Now, do you think at the time he felt he was early or late?
I would say at the time, a lot of people just said he was really late.
He's only been doing this for five years, right?
I joined crypto in 2021.
Like, I was very late.
I was in TrabFi before that.
I think you're never too late to kind of enter crypto or see the perceived value.
As going back to what Marty said before, really.
And that's going to my house.
Yeah, it's never too late to see what Marty was talking about before,
like the movement here from centralized to more decentralized stores of value.
I think that's kind of obvious.
I think it is worth looking at this sort of stuff.
I think in terms of like are you – maybe you feel like you've come in late
and you're going to get wrecked this cycle.
Crypto is just like this.
Go back to any year, even I've been in or before that.
It's often just months
and months of chop and then the periods of euphoria last for like two months three months and then it's
chop and it's and it happens again and you just have to have faith that it discontinues uh in that
sort of in that sort of vein and that we will have a similar sort of period where if Bitcoin breaks
a new all-time high, I'm telling you with certainty that all the crazy risk-taking will return.
Everyone will be like, I need to get Bitcoin plus returns at this point.
Everyone will come in and be like, I want to own altcoins. I'm going to do meme coins. I'm
going to do that sort of stuff. But you just have to make it through these sort of chop periods.
The other thing I would say is that during these sort of periods
the consensus trades they often feel horrible like like if everyone thinks that solana is a
good long or everyone thinks that sui is a good long or any of this like that often in a sideways
or choppy market can be a little bit, they can be bad trades short term.
Like they can just because those are often the people that,
because they're a bit consensus, it means that if people are exiting,
they're also getting out of those bags.
But the consensus trades early, early in an upswing also go the most parabolic.
So don't be surprised if you're sitting there and going like, why,
why does no one understand the value in this
right now? It's just because the people
in crypto is shrinking during this period
or at least it's definitely not going up.
But those sort of more consensus
like this is good tech, like this is where the activity
is happening sort of trade, they pick up
early in the upswing.
yeah, it's max patience in
also some of the consensus long
exactly this is a very interesting question here as well
and thank you crypto dude
you know you got four guys here
very straight direct no filter
we'll call things like it is
I really enjoy the podcast but
could they be more critical of Solana too
when you look at just the fundamental data
the adoption the transactions it does 70
of all what crypto does so it is the dominant chain it is definitely the eth killer but there's
more coming up from behind but all now some of them are trying to carve out their niche cases
i'm going to turn this question around ever so slightly and have is the top in for solana at 295 first part but second part it has been really
strong at 125 for months now it's like that is it's a manipulated asset we'll talk to you marty
after about the manipulation on sol and how maybe they're priming it for the etfs that are coming
but cto tell us about the support of sol and do we have a shot at reaching all-time high again
especially with the etf coming absolutely so if I can share the screen here.
Let me just remove these and boom. So exactly like James points out here,
this is the support level that I've written, drawn here. And I drew it in red because I,
if you look at this chart, this breaks it's not good guys
it's a long way down then to the next support and it felt like maybe it was breaking here
earlier this month but I think it was just a fake so price is basically back to the support level
and again I have it at 127 I think you've had it at maybe 125, 128, James.
But the point here is that this level is still holding.
So support means that when price comes around that level, people start buying and price shoots up again.
It's happened a great many times here.
And now it seems like it's happening again.
But if we should be like a little bit more critical,
I think people tend to mostly hear what they want to hear.
But there was a key support break.
I talked about this level for, I think, basically one year on this show,
the 0.002 on the sold to BTC chart that I didn't think would break, but it did.
So that was really the breakdown. or two on the sold to BTC chart that I didn't think would break, but it did.
So that was really the breakdown.
It became a head and shoulder pattern, which is like a top pattern.
And price did indeed go quite a bit lower. And arguably that target has been reached.
So that downside target from the range breakdown here has arguably been reached or almost reached.
So that's when I'm interested again and then seeing that these kind of support levels, if they're holding, I'd say that's a
pretty good risk reward. But it's never easy, especially when price fakes below support and
jumps up again here. So I got faked one time here. I'm still trying again. And I think like Marty said, I mean, I believe in the technology.
I think they have made the right decisions.
While the corresponding ETH to beat C-Chart looks like this, guys.
I feel they've made the wrong decisions.
They thought they sold scalability with L2s,
but they built competitors instead. Like base is a competitor to ETH, not a scaling solution.
And I feel that that was a mistake. I don't see any signs of them undoing it. So that's why I'm
more positive to Solana at this point of time.
But I remain flexible.
If something better comes along, why not?
I'm game for that.
I'm not a marketing manager for Solana here.
I would love something else to come along.
Because the four of us here have been pretty good at finding new technology early.
That has, in fact fact succeeded really well. Talked a lot about Zui here and maybe something else will get invented this year, which will
take over everything.
Okay, that's great.
That's an even better opportunity then.
But right now, support is holding, but the trend is down and the trend is down on almost
every single coin. It's taking up like 200 coins, 190s in downtrend on Mando's point.
Like everything is down here.
It's about when the trend will start turning up.
And Marty, in terms of this, when I look at historical cycles,
anything launching now or rebranding or trying to change things it's too
late you know this bull market's 80 done uh whatever the winner is now it's not going to
change until next cycle any color to share on that yeah the lindy effect i mean at this point
in technology adoption is always in any software project, adoption is 90% of the challenge, right?
Adoption is the hardest thing.
And Solana's achieved adoption.
You know, people might not think that because they're in the crypto Twitter wave
and they think it's all about meme coins.
It was never about meme coins.
I mean, Solana was just liveness tested with meme coins.
And you can see how quickly
that ended uh once once the narrative got bad they ended that quickly um solana is about moving value
it's a it's a messaging network it's just the next level of messaging networks it's actually built
comes from qualcomm which is a cell phone infrastructure company. That's where Toli and the entire team come from.
So, you know, it hasn't even reached potential.
Now, there are two things to remember.
You need to decide whether you're a technology investor
or you're just in crypto to make more dollars.
You need to decide that right now.
If you're an investor, you need to wait till things reach maturity.
You can't just bail out.
You've been released.
Marty, did we lose you?
One, two, three.
We're alive.
Marty lost his signal.
Let's move on to, we'll come back to him whenever he comes back.
Am I here?
Oh, Marty, back.
Yeah, you lost audio for about 20 seconds.
Okay, sorry.
My point is you've got to wait for maturity.
Solana's not even – it's still in beta.
We need the Seeker phone to come out.
We need Fire Dancer to go launch.
We need seven ETFs to launch.
We need – I mean mean circle is printing 250 million
dollars on solana every three days right now why would they be doing that okay um solana is just
about a hit of stride the meme coin bubble was a bubble ran up to 300 and binance sold it off and
i can you know i've been very vocal about Binance and their strategy with Solana.
But if you're a technology investor, people, you have to hold to maturity.
Otherwise, you're not an investor.
You're just a trader.
And that's fine.
You can trade away.
But I hold my investments to maturity.
And Solana is not even near maturity.
So we need to talk.
Yeah, a couple of potential tailwinds
for altcoin season two.
First of all, you did mention Circle.
They're minting quarter of a billion
every day or two, every three days.
And now this news,
Circle hires JP Morgan to IPO late April.
I think that's a bit soon.
It takes longer than that
to put your S1 and everything in place.
So it's probably not April,
probably more like late summer.
But I could be wrong. We'll see uh the other thing that's happening is we have uh we have um ftx money
coming out sorry i'm on i'm on a water fast so my blood sugar is a bit low um we have a the ftx money
coming real soon uh end of may i think think. And that could be confident with the liquidity kicking into Bitcoin, etc.
Any thoughts on that, Mando?
That timeline sounds about right for me.
I think, as I said before, I still think you probably have to have a bit more patience
in this market.
What I see at the moment is whenever anything outperforms, it just gets gets smashed lower like solana had that brief period where it outperformed it
got smashed lower every one of the l1s i've seen which has like popped its head above the parapet
and rallied for a few days the next three days it just gets smashed lower um so with bearer chain
recently avax sonic like all these they have a narrative for like a week and then it just,
because people are leaving.
So I don't think you're necessarily going to like miss
one of the L1 rallies during this period.
Like I said, I still think Bitcoin's probably,
the Bitcoin dominance goes up during this period.
But I can imagine early summer,
like June, June period
is where we start to come out of this.
And this, for me, is one of the most bullish charts I've seen in the last couple of weeks.
But again, it's a Bank of America study.
They do those studies.
They give them to clients.
And then the public sees them a few weeks later.
So it is a couple of weeks out of date.
But 58% of investors think gold is the golden trade and the trade war.
We are experiencing a trade war. It's going into effect tomorrow and the world is up in arms. But
it's interesting. Bitcoin is on the list and it's above equities. That's big for me. And second of
all, anybody who understands what Bitcoin is, they know it's a superior gold. So basically,
if you add in the gold segment of 3% and add in the 58%, it should be 61% Bitcoin.
That's the way I interpret this chart. CTO, what do you think when you see these numbers?
It's very interesting. I see it exactly like Amanda, you said earlier. Bitcoin is down together
with equities, but it's slightly less down. It has outperformed equities relative to its usual
slightly less down. It has outperformed equities relative to its usual size or moves. And I think
that's exactly what we've seen here. And these investors were right. Gold, US dollar, bonds,
commodities have done pretty well and equities have done the worst. So if this was from February 25, they got it right. And I'm not sure
when Bitcoin will become gold and trade like gold. I think it's many years ahead. I think it's still
like for us, it feels like my God, guys, we talked about this for how many years, you know, five years,
seven years, 10 years. And the people who were early, they've talked about it for how many years? Five years, seven years, ten years.
And the people who were early, they've talked about it most of their adult life.
But new people coming in, they're like, oh, yeah, that's a good idea.
Like a digital gold. What a great idea.
They're not ready to replace gold today in March 2025.
That needs years of state adoption
and stability and all that
stuff. I think it will come.
We're just too early. Sometimes when you feel
like you have an idea and you feel like
oh but clearly that's going
to happen and then it doesn't happen.
Then you feel oh maybe I was wrong. But I
don't think we're wrong. We just
realize it earlier. We just
come to this conclusion.
It's so clear to us.
But we haven't...
The rest of the world hasn't realized it yet.
That's my point.
And this is probably the biggest news
that happened last week
that nobody is talking about.
Marty, Armando, FTIC.
Banks, after Chokepoint 2.0,
all of a sudden, FTIC says,
okay, banks banks unleash custody crypto
run stable coins do whatever this is massive and nobody's talking about it
yeah two things eleanor terror just tweeted the same thing circle ipo in april so she's also
reiterating that that april month we'll watch if that happens but uh yeah this this to me slipped
through once again most of the big news slips through the big accounts don't really understand. This is probably the biggest news in a while.
If you all know Chokepoint, Chokepoint was the government suppression of crypto by the banking cartel and banking lobby, either in a preparatory strategy to get engaged or as a threat to, you know, suppress it, make it bad and try and defuse it.
But the FDRC were primarily behind Chokepoint, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of the US.
They insure the money in the bank up to $250,000 per account.
And they weren't really ready to insure crypto.
Well, that has changed last week
they have now said there is nothing in the way of banks engaging in crypto and blockchain related
activities this is massive this means banks can custody crypto they can deal in crypto you can
have stable coin bank accounts once regulation passes this is just another cog in the preparation for banks engaging in stablecoin and crypto.
So this is massive news.
But once again, the price won't reflect the news.
In crypto, we have extreme market making, okay?
And I just want to make that point again.
If you remove the market making
from the offshore unregulated exchanges, which I call casinos, you know, Binance, Bybit, all of those, Bitcoin is relatively stable chart.
It's being manipulated to be volatile, to support the futures markets, which are unregulated and offshore. when we bring those onshore like coinbase is buying a deribit kraken is looking at ninja trader
these are all strategies to bring crypto futures onshore and regulate them when we see that the
market making will turn down the illegal market making will be gone surveillance will be increased
and you will see bitcoin will flatten out become less more volatile become like gold like the spy
organic chart.
So when people say to me, why is Bitcoin so volatile?
Why are people buying and selling?
It's not people.
Remember, 80% of Bitcoin doesn't move.
It's market makers supporting offshore futures casinos.
That's what they do.
They sell longs and bullish.
When the news is bullish everyone
goes long the market makers flush them and take that money when everything turns negative people
go short the market makers pumps the market and takes the money that's what's going on it happened
in gold in the early days before just regulated and it'll happen now this year fdic news is the
first evidence you see.
The government is going to clean that up.
And you'll see over the course of the month, I may be wrong, but you'll remember Marty said it,
you're going to see a lot more pressure on offshore futures markets in crypto.
There will be an attack before there's a strategic Bitcoin reserve, before there's a state reserve.
That will clean that up.
Mark my words.
You'll see a cleanup in crypto of the offshore market.
Interesting.
This is another good one.
If we're looking for tailwinds, I hope this is showing some Tavi Costa.
And we know that there is an inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the dollar, the Dixie.
And Tavi says, Dixie is at a top.
It's going down from here.
And that goes counter to some of the tariff fears that are happening right now.
But this is kind of a tricky macro one.
Amanda, I'm going to kick this hard one to you.
Do you believe the Dixie is at the top of the cycle?
I don't because all the other fiats are worse off.
It's the cleanest shirt in the laundry.
That's where I get challenged.
But Dixie has been very strong.
And when it goes down, Bitcoin goes up.
Sometimes when Bitcoin goes up, Dixie goes up too.
It's tricky.
Wait for the digital dollar.
I'm going to mute myself.
Sorry, I'm less focused on this actually like the dollar i think has like you said has got a mixed
record with with bitcoin going back i'm more focused on on global money printing um you
talked about stories being buried china just pumped 73 billion billion into its main banks this morning.
I don't think I saw that anywhere.
To put that into perspective, the TARP in 2008,
I think was something like $450 billion.
So China just did something which is like a fifth of the size of the TARP in 2008.
They just pumped into their main banks.
And they said they're going to pump more.
So there is global money being poured
into the system right now it's not happening in the us i still think actually the us may not ease
as quickly think that people think it will but i think global easing is definitely going to go up
um and i'm more focused on that than just the dollar i i think the dollar could remain stronger
than most other like global currencies i'm not as bearish on the
dollar and that bailing us out yeah that's the news by the way it was in the china qe is massive
and this is probably a huge part of what will pump bitcoin but it all hinges on this key element as
well amanda back to you one more time china un unbanning crypto. How true is this? And there's been talk of ban, unban, ban, unban,
ban mining, unban mining, all that type of stuff,
use it for trade, use it for enterprises,
use it for treasuries.
Where are we in China right now?
Yeah, I am not sure about this,
but this is one of the main,
if you talk about one of the key things
that could lead to very bullish price action
that remains, we have the Stablecoin Act, we have RWA regulation, and we have, other than some sort
of sovereign wealth fund getting even bigger into crypto, I think this is the biggest story that
could possibly happen, which would be... I agree with you. And I don't know if it will come as
obvious as this. I continue to think there won't just be like some statement from Chi or something like that,
like, hey, we're going to get into crypto.
But I think it will be softer and it will be a turning of sentiment.
If you've noticed what's been happening in China recently,
so for many years, China kind of shunned its own tech sector.
Jack Ma, Alibaba was basically banished. And then ever since AI turned around in the last few months, suddenly they're having
dinners with all the big tech guys. Everyone's their friend. They've turned more tech friendly.
And that does set a small stage here for maybe them
softening their approach to crypto as well.
I mean, the primary reason for their ban on crypto was because they don't allow
capital to leave China, right?
So crypto is all the big power.
Yeah, I was just going to say that.
And exactly. And thanks for bringing that up.
I was just going to say that the backdrop here was that people were moving money out
Before crypto, they bought like paintings or the real estate or something to get money
out of China, to have it in the free market economy in case they wanted to move to the US in the future
or something like that.
Like rich people in China did this.
And then came crypto and that became a much easier vehicle.
So people bought Bitcoin.
Then you can withdraw it in Coinbase or something
if you later move out.
And the Chinese government didn't like this.
So that was the backdrop to the crypto ban
as I've gotten it explained to me. Now,
I think the world is changing a little bit. It's not obvious that rich Chinese people want to move
to London anymore. It's kind of the London people maybe want to move to China. So I think that that reason has changed a little bit also.
And then on top comes this more tech optimism and increased confidence for China. Perhaps
they don't need to prevent this kind of capital movement in the same way as before. On the other
hand, I do think that they still feel that Bitcoin is kind of US centric in a way.
But I'm optimistic that they will try to take back a stronger position, a bigger position in crypto,
as they are doing in AI and basically every other industry as well, cores and you name it.
I think they're coming.
I think China is coming
and China moving into crypto has to be good for Bitcoin absolutely I think they will try some
move some Chinese currency and blah blah blah but it's going to be good for Bitcoin and I think it's
coming as well absolutely cool I mean China controls 55% of global hash rate of Bitcoin too. So don't forget that. They're huge Bitcoin miners. Yeah. China. Yeah. And I mean, just to add one more point, it's not that rich Chinese people couldn't buy Bitcoin anymore. They just bought it. It just got more complicated trading in Hong Kong or something. But making it more regulated would be positive for sure.
Okay, we're going to take a couple of quick questions
because we'll try to wrap up pretty soon.
But a lot of people, this is one of the times
when people are very concerned and the market's very worried.
But CPK has some cash.
We'll do very, very quick rounds here.
We'll try to capture a couple of questions.
Anybody deploying?
I did a little nibble or something this morning.
A small amount.
You guys buying anything right now
or just waiting for the trend to turn?
I mean, I always have to say, CPK,
you need to always say, what is your timeline?
What's your objective?
Just deploying money for 10 minutes, for three seconds, for 100 years.
Like, what is this drop out for?
Is this for long-term investment or short-term investment?
If it's for short-term scalp, then you want to look at something that's highly volatile.
If it's for long-term, you want to to look something with technical prowess and competitive edge.
So me personally, I've been investing in Walrus on Sui.
I don't know if you guys are aware, last week Walrus went live there, the token generation event.
That's a decentralized platform on Sui, using Sui as its network.
And that's like a competitor to cloud to amazon aws it's now at 46
cents i've been on any so i would have all that for me right now the best thing to buy
okay quick question from jimmy the kid when will tell us to be able to show profitability on robot
taxis well if you talk to kathy wood it'll be a while. They're going to
build a lot of them, potentially as many as 1 million of them in 2026. They will be launching
in June in Austin. That's confirmed. The question is, what will they charge per mile, and how much
will they adopt, and how many will they roll out? They're going to test it first, okay?
This is a different type of technology from Waymo. Waymo only has 700 cars in the world.
Tesla have the ability to turn on 7 million.
So that's the difference.
Profitability, I don't know if they're going to break that out for a while.
I think the biggest tailwind will be FSD adoption in places like China in 2026.
So that's kind of what I see there.
Let me see.
I'll read the questions.
I didn't see you guys see any that are cool.
Water fast, yeah I will do updates on that
that's fun
Marathon looks dirt cheap, it is
the NAV premium is insane
and they're going to, as Marty knows
as well, issue $2 million
$2 billion of ATM as well
any other good questions?
Anything to add here?
Anything happening in the market?
Any breaking news?
We do have, you know,
everybody's worried about kind of the tariff stuff.
Have you guys been watching the amount of investment
coming back to the U.S. since the tariff thing?
It's now $3 trillion.
I mean, I can run through the list if people want to know that trumponomics and how it works it's it's kicking in it's working to
perfection it is and people think you know trump is probably an idiot or whatever but it's not
trump making these decisions it's the team behind him that really know. Like if you go into the background of people
like Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent
and some of the others,
they've made billions.
In fact, Howard Lutnick owns a billion dollars
in microstrategy,
a quarter of a billion dollars in Bitcoin,
and they know global trade,
and they know how to, you know,
the whole idea behind what they call Liberation Day is so that the U.S. is not taken advantage of.
So if one country charges 100% tariffs on American stuff and the U.S. doesn't charge any on their stuff, that's just not fair.
And that's what they're trying to bring back into line.
So there will be some short-term pain.
We're seeing that in the global markets.
There will be some retaliation.
There will be some bending of the knee.
And that's how it works.
Any quick thoughts, Mando, on the tariff fears?
Do you see it all blowing over real soon
or being there for the next three years?
I think he probably follows through with this on Wednesday.
Is it Wednesday?
And it's more unilateral to start.
And then I think he does individual trade deals with his partners
i think he wants to show that he's serious about this there's a lot of walking back
um sort of stuff and i think he wants to actually just have them there and then he'll walk them
back with afterwards with the people that he wants to so i do think you're going to get tariffs
pretty broad tariffs on on april 2nd i don't think this is going to be something that he wants to so i do think you're going to get tariffs pretty broad tariffs on on april 2nd i
don't think this is going to be something that he backs out of last minute i think he's going to
follow through with it and i think it could extend to other things too um do i think that's like
super bullish i think just remains to be seen it really remains to be seen like we haven't seen
someone do this for a long time um it's arguably bearish other countries if they don't play their cards right
um and you could argue that it could be bearish on the u.s economy too but but like it is very
much an unknown because it often uh the the real effect here will be the second order and third
order impacts and how people react to them. So tariffs by themselves, I don't think are
necessarily that bearish. It really just depends on how people react in terms of supply chains and
how the major trading partners, if they're able to walk back and do individual trade deals.
Yeah. I mean, it feels like it's kind of working. I just saw this news. If I can share the screen for a second.
So, I mean, countries are cutting their tariffs on US imports.
Here it's kind of, they cut tariffs on several products, including cars, approved the Starlink
service and so on to avoid being hit with the US tariffss tariffs because that's what he said right if i understood
it right like if you have tariffs on u.s we're gonna have tariffs on your stuff yeah so it's
pretty smart and i mean at least in this case it worked they changed it said okay then we remove it
didn't cost anything then this is a really good point. This is kind of what I'm trying to say as well,
is that just because he's doing tariffs,
there is a world here where actually global tariffs come down, right?
Because like, yes, he's adding tariffs,
but the tariffs are high on a lot of different countries.
You know, there's import tariffs across the EU,
across many goods for many different countries.
There is a world here where like, I know he's actually adding tariffs,
but everyone else reduces their tariffs so much
that you could argue that global tariffs go down.
That's why I'm saying it's unknown.
You do not know how this ends up.
You could see a scenario here where the EU decides,
hey, we're going to drop a huge amount of our tariffs.
India decides, hey, we're going to drop a huge amount of our tariffs.
A range of Asian economies, UK, they could all do
that. And weirdly, you could end up in a world with lower global tariffs because the US is adding
tariffs. Yeah. That's very true. This is another very interesting question from Chippy. And we
like smart questions here. And I've been concerned about this too. And I've seen the dwindling of
on-chain activity.
I was very surprised early 2024 when I saw all the ordinal stuff
driving a ton of fees for miners.
But since then, the on-chain activity for Bitcoin
is going down.
People are stacking it.
As Marty said, we've got nearly 2 and 1
half million Bitcoin held by four players.
And there'll be less activity of activity on chain less fees from
miners what impact does this have on the overall chain broader implications uh could this strain
miners which strains the security of the blockchain any thoughts anybody it's a tough one cto yeah i CTO? Yeah, I mean, I would have preferred that we had more activity on Bitcoin.
I was kind of in that camp.
And I mean, if we continue this thought experiment that Bitcoin ends up in Coinbase strategy,
BlackRock and a couple of more people in like centralized storage and let's hope they
don't lose the keys. That's a less kind of optimal situation. I mean, not today. Today is not a
problem at all. It's just a few percentage. But what if it continues another 10, 20 years? Could
it get too concentrated? Like there's a few players
controlling a too big part of the network. I think it would have been good if we can
use Bitcoin a little bit more. People say, fees are so high. But compared to what? Have you tried
doing some internet business and you know
welcome to the world of fees and hidden costs everywhere it costs like hundreds of dollars
okay so bitcoin is expensive then it costs two dollars but you know can't we improve on that i
still hope that it moves little in that direction over time i don't think it will happen now. And I mean, Martin, you have a very good point. Like if you want to use Bitcoin now, it's basically wrapped Bitcoin in DeFi. That's the
possibility to use Bitcoin now with Zeus and other networks. But I'm thinking more long-term.
I do hope that we do make more transfers on the Bitcoin network. And that we don't...
Yeah, I think a lot of it doesn't become custodial.
That's the point, that it doesn't become custodial Bitcoin only.
It needs a proper L2.
It needs a Lightning that actually works and is adopted.
And that is the secret right there.
And also, by the way, if you've got UTXOs in a wallet,
transaction fees on Bitcoin now are 30 cents, believe it or not.
You can move a billion dollars for 30 cents if you want it's mad yeah i mean i think until guys you have to be aware
these regulations i mean i post this stuff all day you need to be aware of the stuff only once they
pass into law crypto as legal tender.
In other words, businesses can accept crypto in the US and the Western world.
Will you really see the beginning of crypto?
Okay, now Lightning was a promise that was never realized.
The Lightning Network.
So that's why Bitcoin is not used as a currency.
You're not going to pay coffee and pay $5 of fees.
So there are other solutions like James mentioned, L2s for Bitcoin.
I think Solana and Sui are positioning as L2s for Bitcoin,
which means there'll be, you know, pegged versions of Bitcoin on those networks,
which you'll be able to use as currency for free.
And that's coming along.
But stablecoin is the government's vision for crypto retail.
Stablecoin is like a monetization of Bitcoin, the reserve.
So understand the relationship between Bitcoin is the reserve asset.
Stablecoin is the liquid monetization that you'll be using to pay for things, not Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a store of value.
And when you look at it like that,
you will understand what's going on.
All the stable coins will be moving on the fast networks,
Solana, Sue, et cetera.
You can watch it very clearly.
Where is USDT and where is so-called issuing tokens?
Where they issue dollars,
those are the ones that are going to be used.
And that's it. Now, I agree with CTO Larson.
You're muted, CTO. We want to hear you. You're muted, CTO.
I agree with CTO. I have something important to share.
It's to the point.
That happened during the show.
Can I show the... Oh, the screen sharing stock.
And we're getting close to the... We're at the hour, so we'll try to wrap up real fast.
But this is important, guys,
because as I said in the beginning,
Bitcoin is following stocks
and stocks have been
at a very critical point.
This red line here
is in the S&P 500,
the mini futures.
We were down here.
It looked like this started
to break down.
Look here.
Coming back up, huh?
Looks like we're getting
a big week up
above the support.
A lot of people are sitting watching this one, guys.
So if this is going up here and closes like this, perhaps the disaster is averted.
It's always the same way.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Sell the rumor, buy the news, whatever. Whichever way you look at it, it's kind of what way buy the rumor sell the news sell the rumor buy the news whatever
whichever way you look at it it's kind of what's shaking all right this is a very happy development
in my book let's hope it's closest like this and quick final thoughts we try to keep this to 60
minutes for everybody everybody's time is precious including people here with kids running around
their homes mando any final reffing thoughts on that final point I controversially
maybe think that
over the long long term you'll actually end up
seeing like non for profits and
governments potentially
ensuring bitcoin security
don't know if bitcoin's ever going to fix
the fees being high enough
particularly after like I don't know,
10 halvings from now or whatever.
Like I actually think that you could end up in a world
where like huge Bitcoin holders
or people who get together
and think that Bitcoin is so important
that it needs to continue
that there will be some incentive
for people to continue mining
even if the security budget is not high enough.
Yeah, good stuff.
Final thoughts, Marty, from you before you wrap.
Today's the last day for Micah.
So March 31st, remember USDT, FDUSD, all of those unsupported stablecoins will be delisted
and the pay is delisted in the EU.
Watch out for that.
We also got Larry Fink and BlackRock just reported their latest 2025 annual chairman's letter to the investors.
I put the post up on BlackRock's site.
Give that a read.
There's a lot of talk of Bitcoin.
But the most important thing is the front page is a picture of Larry Fink.
And it says the democratization of investing to support my theory.
We're going from centralization to decentralization and BlackRock is on board.
And Larry did say he's very worried about the U.S. dollar.
And if the U.S. dollar does collapse, Bitcoin has a shot.
Reading between the lines.
And CTO, final wrap from you.
And CTO, final rap from you.
I am super sure.
Bitcoin, the whole crypto, the decentralized economy, it is gigantic.
It's going to succeed for sure.
Everything I'm talking about here is kind of fun.
It's fun to try to time this with a little down, try to trade it, you know, to make money.
But I just want to clarify so no one gets confused.
The fact that price goes up and down doesn't change my conviction that this is the biggest.
This together with AI in synergy is the biggest shift of our generation
and maybe ever in society.
Awesome stuff, everybody.
Thank you all for coming.
That was the Monday wrap.
We may survive this week,
but remember, we're waiting for May.
80% chance that kicking off May 1st,
we will see the impact of the huge spike in global
liquidity, including that massive QE out of China.
And that's just the beginning, ladies and gentlemen.
Remember, money floats all boats and money is coming for the first time in earnest in
five years.
Thank you, everybody.
Have a good night, my friends.
Have a good night, audience.
Thank you, moderators in the chat and everywhere else.
We're on everybody's channel. Links are below on my channel. And you good night, audience. Thank you, moderators in the chat. And everywhere else, we're on everybody's channel.
Links are below on my channel.
And you can check us all out wherever you like.
Thanks all.
Thanks, Nando.
Have a good one, people.
Have a good one. you