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Is the Rally Over Already? | Market Check
Recorded: March 26, 2025 Duration: 1:32:15Space Recording
Short Summary
The market is experiencing a decline with notable pullbacks in major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Hyperliquid is facing operational challenges due to predatory actions by Binance, highlighting vulnerabilities in risk management and technical features. Despite these challenges, there are growth prospects for tokens like Pepe and MSTR, indicating potential market recovery and strategic positioning.
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check, brought to you by
BB. There is no second best daily YouTube live stream to talk about the markets.
We've got another interesting one for you guys today. Crypto never fails to provide us with
entertaining things to discuss and debate. I'm sure we'll have a
few things to talk about today, but before I get into it, we were kind of having a bit of a
debate before we even went live. So I can tell it's going to be a good show for you all. I'm
Tommy. You also know me as Snorlax. I'm joined by Tucker Max and of course, Chef Jackus. Welcome to you guys.
Hope everybody is having a great Wednesday.
We are seeing, I mean, we're kind of seeing coins across the board really pull back here, right?
As equity markets are also pulling back, the S&P down half a percent, QQQ at one point down about a percent.
We'll see how the rest of the day trades.
So it shouldn't be a total surprise that we're seeing things like Bitcoin and Eith also read on the day.
I think the real story that everybody, you know, I'm already seeing the comments want us to talk about hyperliquid, right?
Yeah.
It seems like there is some inter-exchange PVP going on between Hyperliquid and Binance at the moment.
And yes, I am sure that we will be debating these things throughout the show as well as discussing what probably is going to happen from here.
But yeah, before we can do that, guys, before we can get too deep into the market discussion, you know what I'm going to ask you.
I need you guys to summon your willpower to hit the like button because I know that we're going to have a great show.
And, you know, I can't promise that we're going to stop the debate to make you hit the like button.
But I would be very appreciative if you guys hit the like button.
So we don't have to discuss soybeans today.
That would be great.
But yeah, let's talk about the elephant in the room probably first, right?
Because I think I'm looking at, like I said, Bitcoin, eat the S&P, the NASDAQ.
really trading pretty closely in line with where they've been trading for the last week or so.
But we are seeing a bit of a struggle bus over on the hyper liquid exchange right now.
For those who are unaware...
It started with jelly jelly token. So ironic that that is the, that's the token, but this is a token that is primarily controlled from a supply standpoint by finance.
But hyperliquid enables you to be able to trade it at 20x leverage.
Of course, that was used for an attempted exploit on the exchange.
taking on a bad position and then pumping it on spot to liquidate the short position that
they took on hyper liquid that forces the hyper
the HLP, right, and the liquidator on the exchange to have to clear off this bad debt positioning,
which in turn is hurting the hyper liquidity pool.
And yeah, we will debate, I'm sure, where these things will go next.
I'll go ahead and give my thoughts right away because I don't want to just be 50-50, beat around the bush.
I think the exchange is going to be fine. Obviously the HLP will probably take a hit,
But this is I do agree with a comment that we saw earlier that this is bare market type of behavior between exchanges where you just see them kind of relentlessly PVPing each other.
But no, I don't think that you're going to see hyperliquid as an exchange go down.
Like I said, I think you see HLP take a hit.
they will likely either just let that hit stand or they'll probably sell the hype token to repay HLP holders.
I guess we'll see what happens next.
But yeah, definitely some very predatory and PVP behavior by Binance at the moment.
Both wallets that are currently, or that kind of saddled HLP with that jelly position were funded by Binance.
deduce from that what you will. I'm sure we'll be debating the reasons behind that.
But yeah, how are we seeing the markets today, guys?
What are our thoughts on this situation with Hyperliquid, of course?
And yeah, anything else that you think that we should be discussing today.
Well, I don't think hype is going to like, I don't think hype is like going down.
You know what I mean?
I think.
and i'm not going to be the exchange defender but um never be it's an exchange never never
obviously but i think i mean they could just delist it right and they don't have to inherit the
whole position anymore like i mean i feel like there's things they could do even now to you know
stop the bleeding it looks like it's already getting bought back up so i don't know if that was like a
a kill shot or not but
Yeah, it does seem to be a pretty, you know, intentional attack from Binance.
I don't know.
But, yeah, I don't think this is like the end of hype, necessarily.
But, you know, that was, it did show a loophole or weakness for sure.
So we'll see.
It's probably maybe a local bottom, but, you know, we'll see.
I don't know if they are going to do anything drastic in the short term to mitigate that kind of exploit.
But, yeah.
Yeah, not going to be an exchange defender, that's for sure.
But yeah, I mean, yeah, that's the main point is, okay, look, I will share my personal experience after having been in crypto for like half a decade, a little bit more.
When there's exchange fud or an exchange exploit, okay, here's what I will say.
or potential exploits or a compounding effect in a in a predatory way be the first to panic not the last
okay nobody has ever truly benefited that much by defending any exchange okay you never want to be
an exchange defender so here's what i will say hyper liquid is being pressured right now
They're kind of under attack.
There's speculation that it might be kind of an exchange versus an exchange attack.
I don't really see why you would...
You don't want to be the guy that put out the FTX tweet where he's like, well, you were panicking.
I was depositing millions more to long on FTX and then just boom, zero.
Wait, okay, the max.
So we've got some, we've got some updates.
So hyperliquid just delisted jelly jelly and finance listed jelly futures.
immediately. So we know who the attackers are.
Okay.
CZ's trying to,
CZ's either trying to bury them or he's trying to buy cheap hype.
But either way,
I don't want to be a part of a war between Binance and hyperliquid
because the truth is,
Binance could squash hyperliquid if they truly wanted to.
100%, bro. They're the cartel.
Like, you don't mess with CZ.
And I certainly wouldn't want to be caught in between, you know,
A battle, but no.
If you've got money on hyperliquid, just be careful, okay?
Because we've seen CZ, and again, we've seen CZ put an exchange out, take them behind the shed, and execute him before.
That was FTX.
Now, we were talking about this before the show, all right?
CZ couldn't have executed FTX if Sam hadn't so egregiously mismanaged and over leveraged his business.
Okay.
Yeah.
So Sam allowed himself to be exploited in that regard.
But hyperliquids lack of proper risk management is potentially also allowing them to be exploited by somebody with a lot more money and power and influence than them.
That's all I'm going to say.
You don't want to be an exchange defender.
Let the dust settle.
Don't be the guy that's like, oh, no, no, it's such an amazing product that nothing bad is ever going to happen.
You don't know that. You don't know that. It doesn't serve you well to think like that.
I'm here to just see what happens, you know, but don't be an exchange.
It's a little unfair to compare Hyperliquid to FTX from like a risk management standpoint.
If the mistake that Hyperliquid made was, and I will say it, after what happened with the whole Ethereum Exploitors.
a week ago, if the mistake in risk management was, okay, well, you probably shouldn't be allowing
20x leverage, or at the very least, you should have kind of a cap on position size for something
like jelly jelly. I don't really know that I, it's a risk management issue, but I almost feel like
it's improper to frame it that way. Let me clarify that. I wasn't saying that the, like,
I wasn't saying the risk management or like the misappropriation or mismanagement of the business is the same.
The point of me saying that was there was a vulnerability in FPX, right?
There was a there was a lapse in its armor and CZ knew about it.
If there is a lapse in the armor of of hyperliquid, right?
And it might not be because.
It's not going to be the same type of issue where they misappropriated funds and over leveraged themselves.
Theirs is going to obviously be entirely different.
It's going to be that they allowed traders to lever up too much.
And there was this hyper liquid bolt that was very easily exploitable, right?
Kind of a loophole.
If there truly is a vulnerability and it can be exploited.
somebody could take them out.
So obviously, I don't mean to compare them in the same one-to-one parallel way that somebody really messed up the core business and exploited and stole customer funds.
More just that, hey, you have a guy that's probably worth like $100 billion.
And he's probably having fun just like toying with this new product that is a competitor to their business.
And if there truly is an ability to exploit them,
you know like what are we even talking about man like how can like how would how could anybody
truly defend hype here like it just seems dangerous to me not that i and i'm not rooting for
them to go down i'm just like i've seen i feel like i've seen this before man
you know i've seen these exchanges like when they start to bleed and there's fud it's like just
get the fuck out until things calm down and then like you're good you know and then when it calms
down then you're good but i don't know when cez's got you in your cross hit when cezi has you in
the crosshairs that's not a comfortable place to be as far as i'm concerned anybody that has a
lot of money in hyperliquid or the hyper liquid bolt
is potentially in the crosshairs of CZ as additional, you know, kind of like additional collateral.
So I don't know. I do think it exposes the key point of failure for all of these exchanges,
really, which is when you have kind of like, we'll call it a traumatic event, for example, right?
And you can kind of pinpoint in 2022 that key point of failure for FTX. When you have just like a massive
position of bad debt, right? A liquidation event. In 2022, it was Luna that saddled all of these
exchanges with just so many liquidations. That's the key point of failure because these positions,
when they're liquidated, they don't just like evaporate out of thin air. They are held on the books
of an exchange as bad debt until you get a counterparty to take them off, to take them away from your risk engine. And
And that's what happened with hyperliquid to a much smaller extent with Jelly Jelly, right?
They got saddled with that really bad short position on a coin that has very low float,
but we've seen it happen to larger exchanges in larger events, such as with Luna and FTX,
when they got saddled with so many more liquidations in a short period of time than they could possibly get off their books.
So, I mean, again, we're still a very illiquid industry as a whole.
I don't think that any exchange is truly immune to, you know, traumatic events.
I think the primary difference is with something like Hyper Liquid that, you know, their books are on chain.
You can see everything that they're doing, which makes them, you know, I think probably a lot more easily exploitable as we've seen today.
I'm, you know, I'm personally not pulling my money out of Hyper Liquid. I don't have like a huge amount on it.
I don't own any of the hype token, but I am, you know, still trading perps on it.
That's kind of the way that I'm approaching it at least.
Now that they've delisted the position, I don't really know that there's anything to worry about, but definitely be aware of it in the future.
Let me ask you about the delisting of that.
Does that potentially cause, like, does that open up a can of worms, you know, like they can just, like, there's this circular kind of loophole where like a trader can almost over leverage on their exchange.
pump the token on chain via spot markets whatever self liquidate hyper liquid inherits the bad position
the vault bleeds and then they can just like delist it and ditch the position and like
does it open up a can of worms where they're going to get exploited on another token and they're
just going to keep delisting all these like exploited tokens or do you think this is just kind of like a one-off case
It's probably going to lead to some changes, right?
Like it has to.
And I think the ETH
positioning with, you know, they had to change the requirements from like 50x to 25x, for example.
So it's probably just going to result in a little bit more margin intensive positioning, probably lower leverage.
In a way, this is Binance trying to strong arm hyperliquid into a position of like, okay, well,
finance is always going to be able to enable you to have the biggest amount of size.
So we're going to try to compartmentalize hyperliquid below us on a sentimental level.
And I think just risk limits will dictate it.
Unless you're very well capitalized, right?
Hyperliquid is probably going to increasingly move into that bi-bit or like even MacC category.
That's probably the goal.
So I guess it'll be pretty interesting to see how hyperliquid responds here.
But clear motive, in my opinion, to try to subjugate hyperliquid as not competition for Binance ultimately.
Yeah, and let me just be super, like, clear.
I really, I love, I love hyperliquid.
I think it's really, like, I think it's really promising.
The basis of, like, my concern is more just, like, a bit anecdotally.
I don't know the actual numbers.
I feel as though when this stuff with exchanges starts to escalate,
it usually pays or age as well to be the first to protect yourself rather than the last, right?
And I speak from experience where when FTX went down, I helped somebody in my life who had millions of dollars.
It wasn't me personally, but it was a friend who had millions of dollars in FTX.
Because of how dialed into the industry, it wasn't how closely I was tracking everything.
I was able to get his money out before the exchange went down, right?
So, and I'm not saying that hyperliquid is going to go down or something.
I don't really, I don't know, right?
You'd have to ask somebody that understands, like, the technicals on it a little bit more than me.
I'm just like, why, like, why even take that chance?
It's one of those things where it's like, why even, why even deal with it?
You know, that's just kind of how I feel about it.
But anyways, I'd love to hear from Tucker and Jackus about it, too.
I mean, it's not like I think, for sure, but.
I think they're going to be fine.
I think they're going to be, just from what I've been seeing, I think, I think they're going to be fine.
I mean, they deleted the position based.
They unwound the position, I guess, and it says, yeah.
uh forced close the jelly market overrode the oracle price to settle at 0.095 leaving the attacker with a small loss so i i it appears they're okay but
Everybody who thought it was a Dex is now very upset because it was never indexed.
Yeah, it's like when when Salana, everybody found out Salana had an off switch, you know.
It's just not as decentralized as people think, which isn't like the end of the world.
But yeah, so it appears they're going to be fine, I think.
But, yeah.
You know, what do I know?
Pretty wild, low time frame price action on hype,
but I don't know.
Did it dump the rest of the market a little bit?
I mean, I think that's kind of more so equities.
Lost in the midst of all this hyper-liquid drama equities.
They're kind of pulling back a little bit.
The VIX moved up a few percent, unsurprisingly.
And where was the open right here?
Yeah.
I don't think there's like a...
I mean, I could see the S&P and the cues pull back to the lows that they set last week,
but I still think they're in for a bigger bounce than current prices.
Yeah, like on the S&P, like this was the level that we were looking for a week ago or so,
was this, you know, that classic setup.
But don't don't really want to see this, you know?
That probably implies a lower low if I had to guess, but...
so yeah would would like to see the s and pshould a little strength that you know
5770 50760 but q q q q q didn't quite get there either q q q this would be the same level
so that'd be about 500 on q q q q q which it's not quite there yet but let's see what
nivita is doing not a whole lot probably continues chopping why are equities we had a good uh
From what I saw, we had a good durable goods print today.
See the VIX moved up just a little bit.
Nothing too crazy, but it could just be, I mean, it could just be a little technical correction, you know.
Doesn't necessarily need to be catalyzed by something.
I didn't see any news this morning.
Yeah, I mean, moved up a tiny, you know.
I don't think, I don't think it's, I don't think the VIX is bottom right here, though, man.
Crush it some more in the month end, you know.
Wasn't there massive quarter-end rebouncing this week, Tommy?
Yes. I mean, I kind of feel like that's kind of coke, but, uh, oh, come on, come on.
But no, I do think that it made sense to bounce, uh, just based on, you know, the fact that
OPEX is behind us. We'll probably see some supportive flows return in about like another week.
So maybe we bleed into the tariff announcement and then bounce afterward.
I could see something like that talking about, you know, indices here.
In general, I don't think you're about to see the VIX issue some like nasty reversal higher.
But it's, I mean, let's be real.
It's down about 50% in a week or a week and a half.
A bounce at some point is probably going to come.
even if that means, you know, what follows is more basing out and, you know, downtrend.
Yeah, probably.
I'm going to keep saying I don't think it makes sense to expect the VIX and VIX futures to trade in the same regime that 2020, or rather 2023 and 2024 were.
It's going to be different.
I mean, do you remember in 2022 when...
I mean, the VIX was just trading in a crazy, crazy range.
Like that whole, just a period of elevated volatility across the board.
It wouldn't surprise me to see, you know, to just kind of see a new kind of range, high, range, low form.
we're just generally like there's elevated volatility and it doesn't mean we need to enter like
a prolonged bear market like that we could be trending up but it just could be that like
it truly is going to be as a holder for U.S. equities, it's going to be a bumpy ride compared to like the mechanical grind up that you saw, you know, the past nine to 12 months where it was like you didn't really get any crazy pullback, you know, on the indexes, had a couple decent little shakeouts, but mostly just kind of a grind up.
this new environment we might still be trending up but you're going to get some nasty pullbacks like
a five to seven percent correction on the s mp 500 might be kind of a new normal for just like oh we
just pull back another five or seven percent and then we spring hard out of it right so maybe we're
just in like a period of heightened volatility across the board i mean but it doesn't to me mean
bear market or something it just means like you're going to
It's, you know, it's going to test your conviction a little bit on some pullbacks.
Yeah, I mean, during this, you saw the VIX bounce at 20 over and over and over again.
Like the range was between 20 and 35, the whole year, right?
Like, every time it hit 20, it bounced.
Like, they couldn't, as soon as you could do that and crush it under 20, you know, we had a bull market, basically.
So...
wouldn't really want to see it like you know quote unquote like except above 20 type of thing but
Where was I looking? I was kind of looking back like because I mean you can kind of see general trends on the VIX like and then up and then you had a spike and then down and then up and then now we're kind of in this up mode right like down and then up like so I
I don't know. I think there was some kind of similar price action with this where it's like after this spike.
I'm pretty sure, yeah, like this action like this, you had the big spike and then you had the kind of the lower spike and then this thing just got crushed.
So maybe looking for that. This is also a Trump presidency. This is also lines up time wise pretty similar.
you know i know it's not the prettiest t a but you know something like that right where you
kind of get a regime shift because we have been in you know an upward vix regime technically
since july right we've had higher lows on the vix since july last year so i think if you
got to move back down to the lows on the vix it's not going to be an extended uh bleed it's
probably more likely to tap it and then bounce
So you don't think that we can do this action?
I would be surprised because I think price action like that's pretty confluent with,
and you can kind of see it in 2023 to the beginning of 2024.
If you look at VIX futures, I've talked about this a lot in the Discord.
VIX futures are a lot more indicative of liquidity entering the market
because the short volatility trade is inherently correlated with liquidity.
So when you've got Vicks futures moving like that, it's a great signal that you have liquidity coming into equity markets.
What, just going down only?
Right.
So the fact that we've found a base here.
Yeah.
I see.
I think signals a regime shift.
Yeah, because where was it?
This was 2022 where you found a base type of thing.
I don't think we're going to trade like 2022, but...
I do think we find a base similarly.
I mean, you could argue we already have, right?
And so like, I mean, how long did this last?
You know, this was 245 days.
I mean, we're there.
We've had that.
Like, it's based out.
And it didn't resolve, you know, it didn't like resolve like that, you know.
Like this thing rarely goes up.
Like this was COVID, right?
The most you get, the best you can hope for as like a bear on this chart is a base,
which we've already gotten, right?
So I don't know.
I don't know.
I feel like time-wise, this should be about ready to, right?
I mean, this thing just goes down only forever.
It looks like one of those leveraged contango charts, bro.
Like as key, like TMF.
TMF.
I thought it was contango at first.
Yeah.
that like as the reason why it was just kind of relentlessly bleeding out.
But then I saw Chim mention on some podcast like way back when I he probably he doesn't,
I don't think he talks about this anymore because I think it's pretty good alpha, right?
Like if VIX futures are cascading the new lows,
it's a great sign for global liquidity entering financial markets.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, I mean, I just think like I said, I think the most you can hope for as a bear on VIX, as an equity bear would be a base.
And we've gotten that.
Like, you know what I mean?
So it's like, let's send this thing lower.
You see what I'm saying, though?
Like the time wise, it works out.
Like we had 2022, but equities just went up.
I don't know.
Chef, are you with us today?
Of course.
Of course.
What are you seeing out there, brother?
Panic.
I don't see much panic today.
I think, I mean...
I felt everyone was panicking about the hyperliquid stuff and then, you know, ETH pullback like 2%.
Oh, yeah.
The ETH pullback is causing more panic than the hyperliquid exchange potential exploitation.
For sure.
I don't know. I feel like people are maybe over exaggerating the influence of hyperliquid.
I still feel they are like very, very small compared to everything in volumes and stuff.
They are the biggest on chain for sure.
But like, you know, if I look at the volumes, compare it to even, you know, stuff like by bit OKX, they are like,
multiple times smaller than that.
Maybe it's just our bubble.
I don't know.
Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's like some crazy systemic cause for concern, right?
It's not like one of those major centralized exchanges that's being pressured, right?
Yeah.
I don't even think it would have that big, like even if hypothetically they did go down.
I don't even think it would have that crazy of an effect on the broader market.
I think most people wouldn't even like, no, something happened.
Yeah, I think it's more just like, oh, there's news that this is happening.
Let's talk about it.
You know, I don't really care.
Like, I don't stand to lose any money on it, you know, if they did go down.
There's no fear.
It's just kind of like, oh, finance is clearly pressuring hype.
Interesting.
Let's see how this saga unfolds.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Pepe is up 8%. I'm surprised he didn't discuss that much.
That was the first thing I noticed when I woke up this morning.
It was up like 13% this morning.
Yeah, I've been talking about how I was seeing signs that Pepe was leading Eith again,
which we've seen it do when it has these big pullbacks.
If I look back at like April, May of last year, that's a prime example where
you know pepe rallied like 200% off of his low april may right yeah yeah like if you put
eith down below and you looked at them together you would see pretty clearly um oh we lost chef um
you would see pretty clearly that eth was in a range eith was stuck in a 15% range and pepe went up
200% from the low um
like so it's this was the same level yeah exactly so i mean you could say like hey you know pepe
got smacked from the high you'd be correct but it's still such a premier alternative to basically
holding anything else like i really like my targets for pepe have not changed at all this cycle
like structurally it's holding up as it's holding up as well as i could have ever imagined um
I mean, yesterday Doge added more to its market cap than Pepe's entire market cap with just this little pump.
Like, Pepe's going to go a lot higher, in my opinion.
I think there's going to be that like serious concentration of flows and liquidity.
What happened at Jack's?
He's like, I see his name down there, but he's not on the...
But yeah, anyways, like, I really think, I think Pepe, this is just one giant range right here on Pepe.
And we've seen before that Pepe can rally 200% when ETH is just like ranging, carving out of bottom.
I made a video about this when Pepe was, you know, basically around the lows here.
I'm starting to see some flows kind of reenter the arena here on Pepe.
We saw a lot of shorts on that last dive down for Pepe.
We saw a lot of shorts pushing it down.
You look at the open interest.
Open interest was climbing while Price was nuking on that last drop down for Pepe right there.
This whole, this whole leg.
No, no, just the last one.
Like the last little, the last little jeet.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. So what you're seeing is a combination of like a short covering rally that's also having new participants pushing it up at the same time.
Because you're seeing a lot of new wallets being added. You're seeing, you know, sell volume like literally the the overused expression sellers are out of coins is actually true on Pepe.
And I was telling people that. I made up two videos on it last week at like 0.0061 and 6.4.
It's like I'm seeing some signal that I haven't seen in a long time on Pepe.
And then looking at like Pepe Doge too, that was giving me a lot of signal.
So what you're seeing right now is I mean, Doge is doing well here too.
Doge dominance is curling up, Doge USD is trying to curl up, you know, really solidify its bottom.
When these like behemoth meme coins really confirm like, hey, our bottom is in, we're going to start cooking, that's when your beta starts to move.
Right.
So we're getting close to that point where I think we could really see like a big, you know, a real big alt coin rally.
A lot of these coins that are down 80%.
They could rally 150, 200, 300%, some of them, you know.
And they might still be down from their all-time eyes,
but there is a serious window of opportunity, in my opinion.
And I think Pepe and Doge are trying to tell you that right now.
Yeah, Doge.
Those looks good back above 22, basically, but...
Going to Pepe, you know, people keep always asking, do you think that Pepe can hit new all-time highs?
I think once again, Pepe has told us that, hey, if ease breaks 4K, then yes, Pepe can hit new all-time highs.
That would be quite a move.
I really think it's going to, man.
I mean, I know it's easy to like look at it right here and just be like it has so much work to do.
Like, man, do you.
dude last march april pepe went up a thousand percent in 38 days and that came out of a
vampire attack right like polly tried to he tried to bury pepe he tried to like do some fork
you know like what was it pork he tried to fork pepe like it put
you know there were these liquidity pools and like you could swap your pepe into pork and pork
even flip pepe if you put it in log mode tucker let's take a let's take a trip down memory
lane here throw it in log mode for me zoom go all the way back okay that low right there that last
low right there yeah that was the poly induced capitulation where you know you saw yeah exactly
you saw this guy try to bury pepe and out of its darkest moment and i remember that moment because
i was like damn this really sucks they're kind of putting the pressure on me here i had a big position
at the time i had this whole thesis and this guy was uh this guy was really pissing me off man with
his little pork stunt but anyways pepe pulls back over 50 percent bleeds to 300 million and then
in 38 days the thing rallies 10x i'm just saying out of your darkest moment
Often something special can spring to the other side.
So all I'm saying is like you can look at Pepe here and be like, yeah, you know, like it's down 70% from its highs.
It's nothing that we haven't seen before.
Right.
And it doesn't take much for majors, Bitcoin, Eith, all the top, you know, all the top 10.
It doesn't take much.
to really throw gasoline on the fire and send this thing higher in a very short period of time.
Look at all the pumps that Pepe has.
Like it doesn't pump slow.
Like when it starts cooking, it puts in multiples in like, you know, 30 to 40 days.
And then it's done.
And then it ranges.
And by the way, that's the same thing that we saw with Doge last cycle.
It puts in a face-melter to the upside.
It pulls multiples over like, you know, two to four weeks.
And then it does nothing.
And then it, you know, consolidates and does another ripper.
So honestly, I really think Pepe's going to go a lot higher.
Like, I don't think that the top is in or anything.
Like, not even close, man.
Not even close.
I mean, you could talk to me about like, yeah, I want like a technical correction.
I want like a one hour FVG to fill.
That's fine.
Whatever.
I don't care.
I'm just saying cyclically speaking, the fact that Pepe is still at multiple billions and literally
ETH, it's L1, has been the dog of this cycle.
It hasn't done anything.
I'm pretty impressed by Pepe.
Looking at the Pepe-Eath pair, everything, man.
Like, it's...
It's a bag that should not be touched or traded, in my opinion.
Pepe's a bag that it will probably pay.
If you have a multi-year bullish outlook on crypto, it will probably pay to just have some just direct spot exposure to it.
And you don't trade it and you just hold it and you just wait for a face belter, in my opinion.
Right.
Just a little propaganda.
I think that Pepe can, I mean, I'm not sure how much like a relative percentage it's going from where I was talking about it yesterday.
But I remember, I think it was like yesterday or the day before, I thought Pepe could make 100% move from there.
You know, and again, I've kind of been one of the people more skeptical about whether or not it's a long term bottom or just a short term one, but at the very least,
you know, 100 to 150% move off the local low.
That's a pretty extreme move.
And ultimately doing what beta should be doing, right,
when we think that ETH can put in a bounce here.
Yeah, 100% will be.1.
It's nice to see Pepe still performing like the best ETH beta
because that's what it is.
I personally think that Pepe possibly makes or comes to the law that it has created,
but I think it's at the bottoming process here.
And I do nothing.
There is much lower to go on Pepe or much, as you said, much more market players to squeeze out.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think it's getting real close here.
I mean, it just depends kind of what like.
It just depends what majors do, right?
I think if Bitcoin were to pull back a couple thousand points, right?
You're going to see Pepe kind of bleed back a little bit.
But I do, for what it's worth, think that the low is in on Bitcoin.
I think it could pull back to like 84 or like 83 or something, whatever.
And I think you'd see Altcoins sneeze a little bit.
But whether you get the perfect kind of sweep or bottom on something like Pepe,
i don't know you know i guess i'm unsure i guess i don't really care too much but i could see bitcoin
kind of pull back to like 84 here so i tend to think that the bottom on btc is too
in uh probably i like the negative funding that we've seen like the sporadic high time for
negative funding on bitcoin and eth for what it's worth um yeah
It's been pretty good.
Like, that's typically where you start to carve out of bottom, right?
Over multiple weeks is when you see that.
And you've talked about that before.
Oh, Jacks has gone again.
He keeps going.
Oh, yeah.
Okay.
Next, what do you think about?
What do you think about this question?
If you were buying and spot pepe at these levels, would you wait for a drop?
That here.
Well, I mean, I guess it depends on, like, your time frame, right?
If you're asking me for like a trade and you wanted to just like put on a trade and cover in like, you know, a couple weeks, I think you can probably get slightly lower at some point, right?
But I also think if you're just like, look, I don't own any pepe and like I'm generally bullish on crypto over the next year.
I think that these levels are going to age tremendously well.
Like anywhere under, in my opinion, like.
What do we want?
0.000.
I think it is just generally deep value on something like Pepe,
given where I think it's going to go this cycle.
I think like,
I don't know if I really see it coming back to the low.
Like I really think the low is in.
I think you could,
I think you could pull back a little from here.
Like that's possible,
no doubt.
But,
i think the low is in on pepe like i'm not expecting like a double bottom or a sweep of that low
not at all i'm not expecting that so i would say honestly if you're cool holding for like a year
minimum and just like swing trading it um i think anything under that black line that
tucker has is going to age pretty damn well personally
And yes, I truly believe it's not just going back to all-time highs.
I think it's going to make new highs and I still think it's going to 50 billion.
That's been my target since I bought it in the bear market.
It's never changed.
I've never once changed my target, you know.
And when it was at all-time highs, it was at 12 billion.
Everyone was like, oh my gosh, Max, I can't believe we're going to hit your 50 billion target.
That's incredible.
I didn't think it was possible when it was at 300 or 500 million.
Oh, my goodness.
And then it crashes and everyone's like, bro, are you lowering your target?
Do you think it's possible?
I'm like, yeah, man, the pullbacks, they don't change anything for me.
They're based on fib levels, right?
High time frame fib levels.
Pepe is the, it's the golden goose of this cycle, right?
It truly is.
Like if you were buying Pepe in the bare market, there's not, nothing is going to outperform
Pepe, right?
Nothing.
Pepe is your benchmark to the upside.
Bitcoin is your benchmark to the downside if you want to trade.
Right.
So yeah, I mean, I think this is anywhere under that black line that Tucker has is a good buy if you're just swing trading.
But if you're like looking to pick the perfect entry, you know, maybe at some point you'll get like a minus five to minus eight percent daily candle on Pepe.
Just like, you know, Bitcoin will pull back a little bit or something will happen.
and then you just buy that red you know assume the bottom is in wait for a minus five to minus
eight percent candle and then buy that but if you're just putting it in cold storage and willing
to hold it for you know six to 12 months and this is i mean i think this is tremendous value down
here personally and i can back that up with pairs as well like the pepe eith pair pepe bitcoin pepe
Nothing gets much more fired up than talking about Peppa.
You have to love the enthusiasm when he gets to talk about it.
Yeah.
Well, it's the thing that I spend the most time on.
It's like it's kind of the core.
It's like the backbone of my entire cycle thesis is kind of like around Pepe, right?
Or at least up till this point, right?
Like most of my plays are around Eith.
but they're also attached to pepe and i spent so much time like researching and understanding how
pepe moves and the pairs and like this whole giant puzzle that i'm really passionate about it like
because i just i just understand how it moves um i really understand it right it's so clear to me um
i don't think there's any variables with pepe that i'm missing generally you know so it just feels
very clear to me
But yeah, I love Pepe, man.
It's been, I mean, it's been a blessing in every sense of the word.
You know, it's been a really strong asset for me.
It's led to a bunch of other plays like Andy and Wolfe, right?
And, you know, I still think it's, I think it's really good value down here.
And if I had more stable coins, I'd probably be bidding some Pepe here.
But I'm pretty comfortable with my position generally.
Not all at once, guys. Stop fighting for the mic. Come on now.
What do we want to look at, boys?
I mean, this is playing out pretty nicely.
This is kind of what we were looking for on the dollar last week or what I was looking for.
Something like this.
A little bearish retest.
A little bearish retest of this diagonal.
Yes.
Yes, I'm doing lower.
Yeah, give me like 104,8, 105.
Also is super confident with the tenure, kind of looking like it maybe wants a little bit higher.
You know, 4.4. Do one of these, something like that.
But still kind of ranging them.
Stocks, no.
Oh, no.
I think you could see the S&P and the NASDAQ revisit those lows, like I said, into April 2nd,
and they'll probably make a bunch of bears think it's about to break down,
and then they're going to sweep those highs again.
Not the all-time highs, but I don't think you're about to, like, fall off a cliff.
Yeah, no, I don't either.
I think this guy's talking about, like, this kind of deal, maybe.
Well, hang on.
That's not from the lows.
There you go.
Well...
I don't know what trend line.
He said, what do you say?
QQQRetting and reclaimed multi-year trendline that was broken in the dump?
Multi-year.
That wouldn't be multi-year.
I think you'd have to go back to the bare market low or something.
That was broken in the dump.
Yeah, I don't know.
Actually, hang on, Tucker.
Zoom way out.
I think I know what he's talking about.
Okay, zoom way out.
Even more.
Put it in log mode.
I think I saw this the other day.
Okay.
Like weekly?
Maybe I can't remember.
I know there was some giant legacy line I was playing around with the other day.
No, I wasn't.
I don't remember.
That was broken during the dump.
Maybe it was like this.
What do you say?
January 23.
January 23.
What?
So, where's January?
So this bottom?
I mean...
I mean, it looks heavy, right?
I mean, we don't, there's a, there's a hundred different ways we can draw that track line, right?
There she is.
There she is.
Non-log.
Let's see, zoom in.
It's like, it's kind of in a vulnerable position, but
I tend to agree with what Tommy was saying.
Like maybe revisited those.
I don't know.
Maybe we just come back and fill in that gap right there.
That's kind of an obvious gap.
Yeah, for a year.
Boomer hate the gaps on their charts, man.
There's nothing the boomer likes more than a little bit of dividend yield and filling gaps.
The boomer loves it.
I really don't think this is a short entry on equity markets.
I really don't.
Send it to 530 first and then nuke it.
5.30.
Yeah.
530.
Oh, 530.
Full, full fill and then jeet.
I will say, I think there are some ways that you can kind of get exposure to instruments that can provide downside protection while not necessarily being explicitly short, right?
For example, like...
you can long the yen, especially against like the dollar.
It doesn't necessarily mean that you're betting on a huge short and equity markets,
but you can still bet on the downfall of the dollar, for example.
The yen. Wait, no.
I think, I think you're going to see the yen against the dollar maybe come up a little bit more.
But on a general level, I think over the next like three to six months, it's going to come down a lot.
So that's the yen.
Just the yen.
Yeah, I think you're going to see the yen bounce.
Mm-hmm.
Like against the dollar?
Yes.
J-P-Y-U-S-D.
Backwards action.
Hmm.
And if the yen bounces against the dollar, you say equities are going lower.
I mean, in general, they'll probably be correlated, but I don't, you know, I think it's a little bit different than expressing like an explicit short position on indices.
Because we all expect the dollar, bulls and bears expect the dollar to, to be trading lower.
Yeah.
There's your USJPY trend line.
Nice little bounce.
Yeah.
The carnage.
Yeah, look at that.
Boom, boom, boom.
So you're saying this is going to break and we're going to get that.
Yes.
Yeah.
What do we got?
They're on like a...
I think the funny thing is that we're trading higher than we open the week and people are...
People are panicking.
I would just call this week chop in crypto, best farm.
Well, it's been chopping pretty much.
Well, I suppose once again depends, right?
But if you look at BTC, it's been chopping for basically a month now.
Like it was February 26th since it was at these levels.
And it's at the same levels for a whole month.
So not the same thing for others.
But even if you look at Solana, it's basically at the same levels as it was a month ago.
Dude, look at that.
Dude, I've been looking at that.
And by the way, oh, this is this is others.
Total has the same trend line also.
Total, just total.
Totally.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure they both have the same trend line.
Yeah.
So, like, we're, I think I had mine in log maybe.
I don't know.
You definitely had yours in log.
I stay on log, bro.
You just wouldn't get it.
That's the thing.
But here's the thing.
Kind of a good place to short, low key, because it's like if you break that trend line, we're going to zip.
So not a bad, not a bad little short.
But I could also see it's just kind of like spending three to five days, like chopping into that trend line.
And then we squeeze higher, get a nice pullback.
So here's kind of, here's what I would love to see, Tucker.
Maybe you could try to draw this out while I'm like explaining it.
Guys, someone, wait, someone needs to cut that sound off.
That's like ringing for like a whole minute in my ear.
Okay, it's me, it's me.
Okay, okay, okay.
Easy, easy, it's me.
So what I love to see happen here is we spend like a couple days chewing through that diagonal compression.
We take out the high of the Trump.
strategic digital asset reserve candle.
So we take out that high.
That's right there.
Yeah, I'd love to see that high get taken out, right?
Big squeeze, we're so back.
Then we jeep back down to the green box, okay?
And we almost get like an inverse head and shoulders kind of pattern.
That would be beautiful, in my opinion.
Do I want the jeet?
Do I want straight up in a straight line, of course.
But that would be awesome, right there.
Nice, beautiful base, inverse head and shoulders kind of thing, whatever you want to call it,
three drive, whatever.
But build out that solid base that we are not going below.
You know what I mean?
Right there.
That would be beautiful, in my opinion.
Yeah.
I don't know if you guys think we can squeeze that high first, but...
I do, potentially.
I don't know if I agree about the high or low, but I do think that we can
that high.
Oh, God.
Let me just think that's one of these.
No, I know what he's saying.
I know exactly what he's saying.
No, he's not even expecting that.
I know, I know.
I know exactly what he's expecting.
I know what kind of man you are.
I know Tommy well enough to know what he's expecting.
There it is.
Not quite, but...
Not quite.
Much lower than that.
That's not what I was implying, but...
I just think it makes sense that we keep seeing just like cringy range conditions at least
for a few more weeks.
As awful as that sounds after the last month.
I feel nothing anymore, Tommy.
It doesn't even matter.
My emotional state in these markets died a long time ago.
I can deal with the grab.
I think the downside is limited until end of April.
After that, it's up.
Wait, the downside is limited.
You're saying the window for downsides between now and the end of April?
Pretty much.
Okay.
I kind of agree, honestly.
And here's the thing, too, is seasonality did not work out this time.
It's not to say that seasonality won't still play moving forward.
Like typically summer is bad, so maybe summer will be bad again.
But also a lot of people, myself included, were pretty excited heading into Q1 for what is typically pretty decent seasonality.
And it just did not play this time around.
So maybe if seasonality is dead,
and seasonality doesn't matter as much as it has in the past.
And this market cares more about liquidity conditions generally and
headlines and Trump news and stuff like that, then maybe there's a possibility that Q1 was dead, but we could actually have a decent summer.
I don't know how you guys feel about it.
We have had some in crypto in the past, pretty bullish summers.
Typically, it's not, but we have.
It's not like it's never happened.
But how do you guys feel about a potential like summer rally where a lot of people, myself included, were expecting Q1 to be the Ripper?
But we were kind of like, hey, we got to get out of the market before summer because summer's dead.
Maybe summer brings us something decent to work with.
Do you guys think there was any likelihood of that?
Look at this.
Look at this.
May to August.
August.
in the last trump post-having year okay talker when was your last tweet a couple days ago i'll
probably i'll probably send this one out look at this may to august four x for total not just bitcoin
but total that's pretty solid that's pretty good so that was a summer you know so not every
summer is horrendous but look at that
Jackus, you were about to say something.
I'd love to get your thoughts.
Summer seasonality.
Are we cooked or are we potentially prospecting a little bit of bullishness?
Summer bull market seasonality is pretty good actually and I think but generally
you know speaking I think this year seasonality is pretty off because usually you see
beginning of the year rally and this this year we it was totally different and so I
see no reason why it couldn't be different later in the year so typically we get a October
sorry, August, September, drop.
And we might not see that this year.
I think seasonality is a great confluence.
I think people laughing at it, that's stupid.
The seasonality is there for a reason.
But it's a confluence and needs to align with the price action, right?
Which is always detrimental.
So I generally, again, I think the seasonality is out of the window right now.
And we should be expecting likely Polish summer.
Dude, it would be awesome to have like a fun summer because I'll tell you, like summer you finally get some nice weather, at least where I live after a long winter.
And then it'd be fun to actually have some opportunity and some fun with work instead of three or four months of just AIDS price action, man.
So I actually, I actually love it otherwise because I love to be outside during a summer and not be glued to the screen.
And so that's kind of the other way around this year.
Yeah.
I mean...
Yeah, I'm just kind of a workaholic, you know, like I love to get outside and stuff too, but it'd be fun to be on the golf course and have some pumps, you know, like get some green candles flowing instead of just chop.
Maybe we're getting our chop out of the way right now, maybe.
At the same time, you can be enjoying your time, you know, on a bike outside and your portfolio doubles in the time.
That's nice too.
That's the win-win because then you're like exercising and getting some sun and you're making money at the same time.
That's beautiful.
Yeah.
And then winter comes and you are inside of your house.
And then you get depressed and then you watch the price and it goes down.
And then you're poor and you're depressed and you're pasty white because you've had no sun and full.
Plus you break your knee so you can't go ski anymore.
Oh, that's just real.
It's time.
Real.
Everybody keeps telling me like, yeah, when you get to go skiing again next season,
and I'm like, you think I'm going skiing next year.
Tommy, you think you'll ever ski again?
I know I asked you this recently, but I'm curious if you thought more about it.
Do you think you'll ever ski again or you're just done?
I don't know.
Not for a while, man, because not just because of my knee and knee injury, but also I had no idea that the,
did you guys know the relapse risk for somebody my age with a dislocated shoulder is like 80%.
No way.
Well, I know that like, I didn't know that the number.
That's really interesting, but I've had some friends.
I know that like they dislocate their shoulder playing hockey or something and it just,
it just keeps happening over and over.
It's like it's never the same again, unfortunately.
Is there no surgery for it?
You can get surgery.
It's kind of like a temporary fix.
I mean, I think as long as you're not doing like contact sports.
the re-injury risk is going to be a lot lower.
As long as I'm not a complete idiot over the next two years,
I shouldn't have to worry about it.
But, yeah, I mean, I'm probably going to have to learn
how to put my shoulder back into place at some point.
Wow.
Unfortunately.
Can we short knees?
Neas are a scam.
So basically, if I fall down at any point skiing,
I imagine I'll dislocate my shoulder if I land on it.
Yeah, you're going to have to learn how to pop it back in for sure.
You need to learn how to land on the other shoulder.
I'll make sure to do that next time.
Can we look at TRX quick? Someone in the comments said TRX, please, looks stronger.
It's never not looked strong.
Is there some crime going on?
By the way, I'm happy to advise you next time, Tommy, too.
I don't know if that looks strong or not. That looks like a scam, honestly.
That's the biggest scam.
I don't know. I have no thoughts on this chart.
I can see more crime being committed or I can see zero. I have no idea.
I feel like this chart has been scamming us for like since the bare market button.
There are long.
That's just the chart I want nothing to do with.
Like I don't want to short it. I don't want to hold it. I just want to watch and see what happens.
Crazy thing is that if you look at this chart, it feels like it kind of bottomed, you know, in 2018 or during COVID and then it's up only.
Like it had no bear market, basically.
I don't know what to make of this one, because I don't think that it's tied at all to like buy and sell volume.
It's just kind of, it's like BNB where all of the supply is in the hands of one person and a lot of the value is probably just like because of a bunch of defy on chain.
Like I don't even know where that value is probably hidden. I don't want it tough it either.
What if it's at like June 2021?
Like a bottom?
Yeah.
Maybe.
I don't know if I think the Tron Unwind this cycle is going to be quite as tidy as the last
one.
Quite as tidy.
Tighty.
Yeah.
Tighty is a very interesting.
It's more like 2018 than 2021, to be honest.
What?
It looks more like this.
Yeah.
It looks more like 2018.
Well, it reminds me of June 2021 more personally.
Like you had that parabola, then sell off, and then that slow grind, three drives sort of thing.
Tommy saying he thinks it's here.
Well, I mean, I'm not saying I think it's there, but I think it looks more like it.
Jackus, you're saying we're here.
Yeah.
Can we look, when you're done with this, can we look at MSTR?
Gladly, pump my bags.
It's at a really interesting fork in the road where I'm like, this is either just like going to be a slow bleed back down into the lows or this is just a very brief pit stop before we just rip higher.
Now this, this, sorry, sorry, sorry to catch you.
Oh, you're, no, you're good.
I was going to say, but based on how total looks and how others looks.
they kind of have the same trend line.
Like if you drew a trend line across all the highs except the blow off right there, Tucker,
maybe tighten it up a little bit.
So it's like across the actual high.
Yeah, right there.
Total has the same trend line as that.
So I'm inclined to think that all of them break out together.
Right. And this is just a little brief pause before we do. MSTR moves up, total moves up. Obviously, like Bitcoin, ETH, everything moves up a bit. And we get a nice squeeze. But, you know, it's clearly at resistance for now. But I think it's bullish. I do. I really think like the bottom should be in on this personally. What were you going to say, Jackus?
Yeah, that this chart cannot be bleeding down because I think it's directly correlated if not leading Bitcoin price.
And I tend to think it's leading because it seems like the whole ThreatFi is buying MSTR.
And MSTR then goes and buys Bitcoin with it.
And it's clearly been leading on the way up in the prior leg, and it's clearly leading now too, where MSTR is above that march high already while Bitcoin is not yet.
So you can clearly see which one is pulling the other.
Yeah, I mean, maybe MSTR just needs a little gap fill.
Like, it's got that same gap that, like, QQQ has right below the current price.
Maybe we just need a little baby gap fill, and then we'll be good.
Baby gap, Phil.
Baby gap fill.
That's what you're talking about, Jackus.
Yeah.
We've seen that before, too.
I remember when Louis was on here, he was showing it.
Yeah.
Back in like October, November, MSTR was ripping and Bitcoin was stuck and then Bitcoin caught up.
MSTR definitely leads Bitcoin, man.
Like there's really no question about it.
I think eventually later in the cycle, you'll see that dynamic flip.
And you'll start to see Bitcoin moving and MSTR probably distributes before.
But for right now, it 100% leads Bitcoin, 100%.
again i think the fundamental reasoning for it is because nobody really needs pot bitcoin anymore
and but there is that good dynamic at least that if you buy the beta which is msdr then uh
MSTR or Saylor goes and he buys Spot Bitcoin with it, which isn't something that ease beta has where you buy ease beta, but that ease beta doesn't go and doesn't pump ease alpha, you know, ease itself.
And I think if this was implemented, where like, you know, each time you buy something on ease, you at least buy some portion of ease.
That like I'm not saying this is like that every project has to implement that or anything
I'm just saying that the way it is on BTC right now is pretty good because people
You know Treadfi buys MSTR
They have new liquidity and they go and with that liquidity they buy spot Bitcoin that pumps the Bitcoin price which inherently pumps
MSTR price
Why would you buy Bitcoin when Michael Saylor can buy it for you?
Exactly MSTR is
for now becoming the alpha to Bitcoin.
It's like they already own two and a half percent of the Bitcoin supply.
And it's really more like double that because a lot of Bitcoin has lost forever.
Bro, this was it right here, man. Look at that. That, that was it. We should have known that.
Well, it was even here. You see what I'm saying? That's pretty significant.
when you said when you had bitcoin set an equal high and msTR set a pretty significant lower high
that was it you know yeah that was signal yeah there there really isn't much point in buying
but bitcoin it seems nowadays anymore and if you if you imagine that this didn't happen you know
this is when it really went a little bit
I'm going to bring that forward.
Even this, bro.
Even this was Signal 2. Look at that.
Wow.
If you think of it, you know, BTC or MSTR right now is trading clearly above here already.
And whatever way you want to draw it, kind of.
But that shows the bid, in my opinion, that will sooner or later show in Bitcoin too.
And if you look at how it was in August, September or before, it was also MSTR.
It was already hitting new highs in October while BTC was still trading down here.
And then obviously BTC got up, right?
But again, if you held MSTR, it went up 400%.
And if you bought BTC, it only went up 120%.
So it seems like they bought Bitcoin, ThreadFite bought Bitcoin.
And there isn't much reasoning for holding spot unless you actually want to hold it on your own, like in your own.
hardware wallet.
And Jack, is that something we've talked about too is people,
last cycle there was such an emphasis on self-custody and decentralization,
proof of work, solid.
Nobody cares at all this cycle, man.
Everyone's like, just pump my bags by whatever means you pot.
Like, it doesn't matter.
Nobody cares about the fundamentals anymore, right?
And I would argue not to be critical to these people,
but a lot of the Bitcoin Maxis,
yeah they didch that too they were all about your keys not your coins now they're like
cheering for michael sailor to like keep buying bitcoin and like concentrating the supply arguably
centralizing the supply but they don't care because like they want their bitcoin to pump you know so
i i don't know i mean it's a little yeah it's a little genuine but you know whatever it's just
different it's different than it was last cycle
There are surely a few people and big respect to them who still do not agree what's going on with that, right?
But I would say it's definitely lesser people than in the prior one when it was really all about the tech, all about decentralization.
But I kind of think it stopped with Solana. I'm going to lie.
Yeah, I would agree with you. I would agree with you. But here's the thing.
I think it was inevitable that Bitcoin and crypto was going to be centralized and kind of hijacked by legacy.
You still have the option to self-custody, and you always will.
But I think a lot of people have given up on that and they're like, if we wanted Bitcoin and crypto to scale to that next level,
inevitably countries would get involved big banks would get involved billionaires would get involved
and that's going to concentrate and centralize the supply right and in my opinion
It's not a horrible thing.
I think it was an inevitability.
I still think it's a much superior alternative than holding other assets.
Like if you want to self-custody, be off the grid, hold your Bitcoin, not your keys, not your coin.
You still have that option, right?
Bitcoin as a whole is not going to be entirely decentralized.
But I also don't think it's the worst thing in the world that big banks get involved in Bitcoin.
Because think about this paradigm.
Like, if you...
Like, let's just say you have $50 million in Bitcoin.
In my view, for me personally, like the ideal paradigm as like a law-abiding citizen
with a family, with a business is I don't want to sell my Bitcoin.
What I would like to do is basically take out a home equity line of credit against my Bitcoin.
I don't have to sell my Bitcoin.
I could put it in a savings account, you know, or something like that.
And they'll issue me a low interest fixed rate line of credit, you know, collateralized by my Bitcoin, which will appreciate hopefully forever.
And I don't have to sell it.
That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, right, unless they can come up with like a truly decentralized lending system for, you know, spot Bitcoin.
But.
someone smarter than me is going to have to figure that out i definitely think that collateral
collateralization of btc would solve the housing problem in all western economies explain that more
well the problem is that people that have no access to to real estate have a big problem getting
the first one especially as you know the
real wages keep going down like you can keep buy less and less stuff with what you earn and the price of real estate goes higher
While at the same time, people who already own some have very easy access to new ones.
So on one side, you have people that own zero real estate.
On the other, you have one that owns like 30,
and he's a real estate landlord who just keeps getting new and new and abusing the system.
And so if all these people that own all so much real estate,
could just instead using real estate as a store of value,
they could buy BTC and be able to collateralize debt.
Suddenly all of those houses would go onto the market.
Currently, you have a huge supply,
and that brings the prices of the houses down,
and suddenly housing is way more achievable for anyone,
and a balance in the world is found.
And the assumption also is that Bitcoin would appreciate at a much faster pace than just
like a multifamily investment property or a single family home, right?
So it would give a lot of those people holding Bitcoin that are collateralizing it,
the opportunity to kind of catch up to the landlord that is 100% concentrated in real estate
and has been for 20 years.
The rate of growth is not going to be the same as Bitcoin, or at least that would be my assumption.
I agree with you.
But of course, you do sacrifice some of your security by, you know, collateralizing or allowing banks to custody your coins.
But I don't think many people care about that anymore, man.
I think they're just like, whatever, it's a good asset.
But then I would raise the question, you know, if people don't care about decentralization, doesn't that inherently dilute Bitcoin's value proposition?
if it's being viewed as a storage of value in a commodity,
but entirely controlled by centralized entities,
that it was originally designed to be avoiding.
So I'll ask you, I'll answer your question with a question.
What do you think was always the,
what was the largest value proposition of Bitcoin?
Was it the decentralized nature of it,
or was it the fixed supply component?
Both.
I agree with you, but I would say that the fixed supply is,
was more of the value proposition than the decentralization.
I understand that's a huge component in like the root of Bitcoin.
Like in the Genesis block, right?
It's like chancellor on the brink of second bailout or whatever.
You know, like that was the inspiration for Bitcoin.
I get that.
But I think in recent years, because of all the money printing and fiat manipulation, the value proposition really morphed over the past five to seven years into they can't print more Bitcoin.
And they're going to keep printing more dollars, which is the denominator of our Bitcoin.
So yes, the decentralized nature.
for sure was the inspiration for it.
But I think more of the value proposition was they can't manipulate this currency,
like they can manipulate our dollars.
But I think the decentralization is still essential from the point of view where it's a,
it's going to be an asset that no nation can can manipulate, you know.
So you're not in it like, for example, you'll,
The current world works on bonds, right?
So you have Japan and China who are the largest U.S. debt holders.
When U.S. starts to devalue U.S. dollars starts doing stuff with it that they don't like, that's a problem.
But with BTC, even if it's going to be centrally held, most of the supply,
you still know that neither of these entities can do anything with the protocol.
And it's a neutral playing field for all.
So even in that regard, the decentralization is still important.
I would say...
I feel like it has been manipulated, right?
Like Michael Saylor is living proof that a crackhead with lots of leverage can still control the price of Bitcoin.
Of course.
True.
Yeah.
Well, control.
I saw a funny thing about that this morning.
It was that who's that guy that predicted Bitcoin would be at 84K that's like getting all this attention recently?
I forgot his name, but I think he was talking about it.
Yeah.
Michael Saylor tweets out this morning like, how much Bitcoin does GameStop need to buy in order to be like respected by the Bitcoin community or something like that, right?
And this guy quote tweets Michael Saylor and is like, this is like a crack head asking other crack heads like how much crack he needs to smoke in order to be like respect or something like that.
This is so funny. I got to find it.
It was so funny.
I feel like Josh Mandel is just the new plan B, but that's just me.
What's he saying next?
Do you say something?
Well, it's just somebody that we didn't really acknowledge until they said price would go up, but now all of a sudden their word is God.
Yeah.
Okay.
Let me show you this.
Hang on.
This is so funny.
All right.
Oh, this is so funny.
Can you guys see this?
Yeah.
Yeah. So Saylor goes, what's the minimum amount of Bitcoin GME needs to buy to be respected by Bitcoiners?
He goes like seeing a crackhead create a survey about how much crack someone should buy with their paycheck.
Saylor, correct me up.
That's such a funny tweet, man.
It's kind of true, right?
It's like, who cares if they buy one Bitcoin, that's great, you know, whatever works for their business.
How much Bitcoin do they need to buy in order to be respected?
And look at like some cult member straight goes against the guy who said that, right?
Like if you go back.
This here is LARPing.
MSTR starter kit, Tesla tier, King move.
All right, let's see.
Looks like out of 40,000 votes.
Yeah.
Almost half said that you got like 3 billion just to be respected.
Wow.
Go back to the original post that you were showing with the Craigheads.
The king of Pump My Bags.
Look at the first command.
Like straight up someone attacking him. Well, he is right, you know, technically.
He is right.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, it's funny.
It's so funny.
Dude, this guy blew up.
He got so fair.
Who is this guy?
Like, what's this blurry picture?
Like, who is this guy?
That looks like it's downloaded from, you know, in there.
Yeah.
Like, this isn't a real picture, is it?
Like, they found this on the internet or something.
He's had some good takes, though.
I'm not going to lie.
He's a decent follow.
At least he has been so far.
We'll see.
All right, this is probably where we need to wrap it up.
Hey, guys?
I was going to say, let me pull up.
We're rolling out a little update right now, so it might not.
We'll see how it looks for you, Tucker.
I love it how sometimes during the show we are like, not all at once, guys, you know,
and then we somehow still end up rolling, you know, one hour and 30 every single day.
There can be these periods of a little bit of silent, but then it starts to get rolling again.
And even at times when like fuck all is happening, really, right?
Like look at that.
Any conversation can be your best conversation.
You never know when.
Exactly.
It looks like she's still updating Max.
I think I got mine working.
We're rolling out an update right now.
It's going to be epic.
It's going to be epic.
And it's going to be like in the next maybe six hours.
All right.
I think I got mine working.
Hang on.
All right.
All right, guys.
If you enjoyed the show today, the debate, the conversation, and of course, every other wacky thing that tends to happen every single day in this asset class, hopefully if nothing else, you're entertained.
But if you are looking for more alpha, more thoughts on the market.
We definitely have some offerings for you.
Starting with what Max has on display,
we've got your go-to tool for this cycle,
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We love to cook for our subscribers.
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Of course, last but certainly not least, maybe this volatility is getting to you.
I can't even blame you.
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We've got BB Wealth Management,
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