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Is There Still Hope For Bitcoin In 2025?
Recorded: April 8, 2025 Duration: 0:45:40Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent live stream, the speaker analyzed Bitcoin's market trends, discussing potential bullish divergences and the impact of current price movements. Emphasizing the importance of real-time engagement on platforms like Twitter, the conversation highlighted strategies for long-term investment and the significance of market indicators in predicting future growth.
Full Transcription
Oh, we're live right now.
Very nice.
Very nice indeed.
I'm actually just going to be doing a quick live stream here while
I record my usual daily video for some reason this doesn't seem to be working
hold on well it looks like we're live but on my own screen it looks like it's
not it's not going so there we go okay okay okay we'll see how this goes just
gonna be trialing this one out, of course.
What's up, Ben's Chair?
What's up, AA Crypto?
SFT?
Yeah, man.
I think something that I'm going to try going forwards from now is I will do like a live
stream on X while I record my video for YouTube.
And, you know, I can just be live for the people who are on X because I mean, I think X is like super, super, super convenient for a lot of people,
myself included. Like I find myself watching a lot of shit there, to be honest. Anyways,
uh, squad juice is I'm freaking out right now. Panic sold my son into slavery. Warm buffet told
me to two. That's exactly right. He says, uh, sell your son when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own,
something like this.
Anyways, uh, it looks like I won't be able to connect there.
All right.
Well, whatever.
It doesn't matter.
I can bring my chats over here and that's no problem, but, uh, I'm just going to get
set up on the other side here.
What's up, uh, Finn?
Yeah.
Same, same.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
It's just, it's so,
it's so convenient. Now I hate the YouTube like a back player, if that's what it's called,
playbacker, playback. I don't fucking know, but, um, but it is, it is fun when it's live.
Daily bullish divergence on RSI hash repens held so far. That is right. The hash opens have held so far. That has not been destroyed at this point.
So, you know, was I too premature yesterday stating that, you know, I think things are
going to generally come down from here. Technically, yes, but I do still think that
things roll over. Anyways, to answer your question, is there bullish divergence here?
You know, there is potential for it. Yes. Obviously, Bitcoin on the daily RSI made significantly lower lows on both the 26th and 10th of March compared to what we're looking at right here.
But I'm looking at this as very likely to roll over, to be honest with you. I think that there's still another try to the downside. But can it rally a little bit more from here? Sure.
downside, but can it rally a little bit more from here? Sure. In fact, I've really been loving this
indicator that one of my friends just created. We're calling it the PA Pivots for now. I don't
know if that'll be the final name, but as long as we're below this pivot, that sort of green,
oh my God, my brain is broken. That pink dotted line. I have to maintain a general bearish bias.
It's just trend at the end of the day. But yeah, you know, some of the higher term time frame stuff has not been broken based off of yesterday's closure.
But when I look across the board, there are some really concerning statistics to me that make me consider that, you know, this this will break down at some point.
But I guess the sort of like the hopium maybe or the good news is that, you know, while I do think that Bitcoin probably rolls over here, actually, I don't think it's maybe going to go down as far as what as what I was saying before, or at least as, you know, as what I commonly commonly see quoted on places like Twitter and YouTube. You know, I could easily see a move down
into the 60s and then have a quick reversal and getting into the 60s would make everyone,
you know, naturally very bearish, right? But kind of reversing around there does make a lot of sense
from things that I've been looking at. But we'll see. I mean, you know, with the way that yesterday
closed, yeah, there's potential here. But here's the thing. Whenever I see a big bounce like this and it fails to reclaim all major moving averages,
especially the five exponential, which is that red one right there, the lowest period,
it doesn't mean anything.
I mean, this is still another down closure, basically.
Bullish divergence on the daily and three-day.
Daily, again, you know, potentially can have it.
Three-day would have it if it does reverse here.
Yeah, absolutely.
So there is potential for a nice rally, but you need to confirm a local low first.
In order to confirm this as a local low, you've got to trade and close back above at least
this moving average here, that red moving average, which is a 5 EMA.
That is essentially where price has been rejected from thus far. Now, it doesn't need a close above there on this current dildo. It can be on the next
one, of course, as well, thus completing that as a local low. But yeah, as of right now, it's
potential, but it's not quite there. We do see some things from other indicators that have been
testing out that we're down around some pretty critical regions.
You know, it does seem to me that Bitcoin can easily play out a little bit of a bounce
here.
But does the bounce reclaim any of the more important regions?
Again, namely this PA pivot here, which is about 86 to $87,000.
That remains to be seen.
And I really do have my doubts with that at this point,
to be honest. But yeah, just for full disclosure, as far as Bitcoin goes, yeah, I did buy some in
the low 80s and upper 70s just because these are long-term holds. These are not trading positions.
But as far as stocks go, I got very interested yesterday. Um, I'll bring you over to some of the things over here.
I bought a lot, um, yesterday.
I still am keeping about 40 to 45% liquid now, um, of my total intended amount.
But, um, you know, when you see something like this, like extreme, extreme extremes,
it's, I mean, at least it's going to be a big bounce here. The problem is, is that
we have been conditioned for the last 15 years, sorry, more than 15 years, maybe 16 or 17 years
now, that, you know, these downside moves can be, you know, relatively quick and then reverse.
Whereas, you know, if we go back to like the last real bear market,
let me make sure you just go to spy futures here. You know, what you actually see during a real bear
market and keep in mind that this is a weekly timeframe, you know, you see the step downs
followed by really sharp rallies, like really fucking big rallies. I mean, this is 50% rally
right here. Another 50% rally right here. This one was 30% on the first attempt.
And they all failed.
And these took multiple months.
So, you know, imagine that, like, you're in the process of it.
You know, over the course of a month or two, price goes up 50%.
It's very difficult not to say or to kind of maintain a bearish bias there.
But, of course, trend remained to the downside the whole way through.
So, that's why I put so much faith and respect on trend, because until that reverses, the
path of least resistance is whatever the direction of the trend is.
And for Bitcoin on the weekly, it certainly has a downtrend at this point.
I mean, it's quite obvious, right?
We have a high, we have a low, we have a lower high.
Obviously, it breaks below that past low, so it must be a lower low.
And then you got a little bit of a lower high here at $87,000 to $88,000.
So, as long as Bitcoin's below there, at least, I'm going to maintain a very cautious stance
and generally be looking for rallies to fail and to roll over.
Can I be wrong on this?
Yeah, absolutely.
Of course.
I hope I'm wrong on this, honestly, because it would just be so much easier. Bitcoin does bottom out here and just continues sideways and up. That'd be amazing. I mean, but but it's usually not that easy. aspects like triple Q's VTI, which is just Vanguard's, um, tracker of, uh, of, of, of,
of the SPX. And then a couple of other things, uh, I like defense stuff. This one got pretty
fucking beat up in the last couple of weeks. Uh, in fact, it was a little bit of a late comer to
this downside move coming down about 20%, but pretty much all done within the past 10 days,
you know, whereas most of the things have been coming
down for like a month, month and a half now.
And then what else did I get?
Yes, I got that.
I got that.
I did not go into financials yet.
I don't know if I'm actually going to go into financials.
I did go into biotech, but I guess that kind of falls under the umbrella of technology.
You know, and I think that most of these things are going to come lower,
to be honest with you. But again, these are very, very long-term holds, 10 years, 20 years, maybe,
10 years minimum for myself. These are like long-term setup positions that I just want to
DCA into, that I have been DCA into. The last time I really was DCAing hard was in the end of 2022
and beginning of 2023. And other than that, you know, I haven't
really bought anything actually until this past month when things came down. Again, my rule there
is, hey, if we see, you know, 15, 20% decline, I'm going to put some money to work. Even a 10%
decline, especially on like SPY, that's fine as well. I mean, a lot of the time you'll find that, um, that, uh, price will not
just, not just go above that level, but go massively above that level, even within about
a year or two from there. So, you know, I'm not, I'm not trying to be perfect on these. I just want
to make sure that I get in when I can get in and, uh, and just throw away the keys to my account.
So I don't do anything stupid in the next, in the next 10 years. Vanguard makes that very easy.
It makes it very, very easy. Anyways, I'm going to finish off my coffee here. We'll get to the
actual analysis of the day. Yeah, I will post this video on YouTube, Neon, but I'm just trying
some new out today. I wanted to be live on Twitter while I record my YouTube video.
And I'll post a video on YouTube a little bit later.
You know, Twitter is kind of cool because it's current.
It's what's happening right now.
But YouTube is obviously like a better viewing experience.
So I figured I'll try this out.
If people like it, we can continue.
If people hate it, then we'll probably continue anyways
because it's really easy to do.
But yeah, SFT says the hash have been same as COVID-19.
We actually will talk about that in today's video. Is it the same as 2019? Not yet. Not yet. So this buy signal right here has
actually not been invalidated just yet because Bitcoin is not closed below that March low,
that March low of 76,700. It obviously traded below there significantly yesterday, but did not close
below there. So it's actually not been invalidated just yet. And what kind of, you know,
twist me the wrong way to use like a weird, you know, a weird phrase there is that whenever we've
seen this buy signal, even when it does fail, there's almost always been, in fact,
there always has been a very nice and powerful move to the upside first. You know, this was the
one leading into COVID, right? Bitcoin pops up over 50% within about 40 days. And then, yeah,
it does shatter it later on. This was a black swan after all, and traded much below it. But yeah, 50% rally in just over a month is pretty
fucking significant in my opinion. Of course, we also saw this one here from 2022, right?
Or sorry, not 2022, but 2021. Buy signal happens here. Bitcoin rallies up from that point about
64% over the course of nearly three months. But yes, it does fail later on, of course.
So this is the only time that we've seen this signal.
If it does fail, this will be the only time that we see it like fail immediately after that, which without any sort of like major balance.
In fact, this one would be would have been firing off at literally the top side of the balance.
But it's never been a just blindly by that signal to begin with.
So, yeah, man. Oh, no. Double ended streaming. We'll do some double ended dildo action as well later on if you're if you're up for it.
But yeah, I'll continue to live stream on YouTube to just not today. Today was actually kind of like a busy day this morning.
I mean, this has been a busy week. This has been this past like week and a half were the first times in a long time where I really felt like
I actually had to fucking work, you know, just checking up on stuff. Uh, cause like I said,
these events, they don't happen too often. I mean, shit, when we look at traditional markets,
I realized that like, I'm really going deep into this now, but, and I just intended to do my,
my regular video here. But when we go into regular markets here, SPY futures, it's only happened, I think, four times in the
past 80 or 100 years that traditional markets, or namely the SPX, has seen more than a 10% down
week. And that was last week. Last week did lose over 12%. So yeah, that's historic. But
the thing is, is that the other stat that we have is that when we've seen those historic drawdowns,
10% downside move, it has marked off typically around a major low. And more importantly,
within the next two years, things have been up, you know, much higher than wherever that, uh, wherever that catastrophic price action happened.
So, yeah.
Anyways, I see that we got a lot of people in here.
That's awesome.
If you're joining in, uh, and, uh, and you're just, and you're just getting here right now, I'm just, I'm just, I'm just going to be recording my regular YouTube video while I'm live on Twitter.
Just thought it would be kind of a cool thing to do.
Um, cause Twitter is, yeah, I don't know. It's like, it's very active. It's very easy to kind of tune
in. So I figured, you know, I love watching other people's shit live on Twitter. Maybe I should
start to do that myself. Took me about a fucking year to realize that, but, but yeah, anyways,
I got a little bit more of this coffee, this caffeine to go, and then I need to set up for
the actual video itself. Let's go back here and get my notes out here. There we go.
Yeah, yeah. Okay. Okay. So we want to start off here. Yes, hopium technically still alive,
but I don't think it's going to be playing out based off of stuff that we'll talk about a little
bit later. But at least the hopium remains alive for a little bit later. Um, um, um, but at least, at least the hopium
remains alive for a little bit longer. I mean, it's always good, I guess it is what it is, man.
It is what it is. Anyways, got a few more sips here. Then I think we're ready to go. Oh fuck.
I forgot to take my, my medicine today as well. Just pop this one in. I got all my medicine
cabinet right next to me as well super easy
it's right at the workstation never have to leave it's beautiful anyways okay come on i have to cut
this pill up into force this one hopefully makes it so that i don't lose my fucking hair
yeah the live x is really really good all All right fair enough. You don't like the intro it is what it is man
Some people love it some people hate it you got a rainbow in your name
I imagine they're gonna hate it. It is what it is. It's okay though. It's okay
Anyways, I'll put Twitter to the side here
I'll still make sure that I can actually see the comments cuz that would be cool
But I do need to make sure that I also can see uh no this is getting way too convoluted i'm gonna throw it over here but we can get back to
it after the actual video but yeah this this is not going to be like a regular live stream or
nothing like that not doing no requests or or anything just just just recording the regular
video uh neon karate says qb or OB low or is it QB?
Hold on.
Pull back here.
OB low.
You mean order block.
73 to 67 for the entire range since entering 52 consolidation last year and entire range POC today to 67.
Yeah, that's actually kind of what I was saying at the beginning of this video.
While I do think that things break lower than where they're currently at right now, I could easily see a reversal in like the mid or upper 60s.
That would actually be like a really perfect place to reverse, in my opinion, just because, you know, if Bitcoin starts to show like a six-handle, or especially if it goes back down below yesterday's low, you're going to see a lot of people get really fucking bearish and for good reason.
And, you know, during that time, you know, you're probably going to get people calling
for like significantly lower.
And I think that sort of like mid $60,000 region would be a great place to reverse and
just fuck everyone because that would be a difficult move and something that I think
very few people would foresee happening. It is what it is, man, but just a potential. Obviously, we're well and far
away from that right now. But, you know, as long as Bitcoin is below the price action pivot here
of, let me bring it back here. Let me go back to actually Bitcoin. Okay. Still got my damn
shtonks up there. There we go. You know, as long as Bitcoin's above or sorry, below the price action pivot of about 86 and a half on a closing basis.
It's just I have to remain bearish.
I mean, it's just trend. The trend is your friend or obviously or maybe it's not not your friend, depending upon what side of the market you're on.
Manzi says monthly volatility setting up for the next big trendy move kind of implies all this is just chop.
No. What's your take i don't understand why people say no after a sentence um it doesn't make any sense to me it's like i'm asking no it's not but i don't know it just doesn't make sense to my
mind anyways um bbwp is indeed very very low similar lows to what we've seen from the August base of 2023, also the March
base of 2022 before the mega collapse, and then of course the July mega breakout as well. Yeah,
I mean, a big move is brewing, sure, but that doesn't mean it's destined to go to the upside.
Remember, volatility is direction neutral. It just tells us that a very big move isn't coming,
and we've yet to see it. In fact, it's very interesting to me to see that volatility actually declined on the monthly when Bitcoin broke out in November of 2024.
I wouldn't have expected that, to be honest.
I would have expected it to really expand from there. So that makes me, again, really concerned that that might come alongside downside expansion, especially with bearish divergence on the monthly RSI.
Now, to be fair, now that I recognize it, just another point of hopium here,
the monthly RSI, there is a chance for hidden bullish divergence. If Bitcoin literally reverses
from here, you would have lower lows on RSI. It is an uptrend and you would have
you know you would have lower lows on RSI it is an uptrend and you would have higher lows on price
action so that is hidden bullish divergence but that's still again well and far away and you know
even then it's just can't be looking for something like that to to even be possible to confirm
especially as long as the monthly is below the red 5 EMA there and that's all the way around
83 and a half,500 right now.
Can you play Bring Me a Higher Low?
I'll have to sing it myself.
I need to get my good singing voice out.
Bring me a higher low.
Elsa also is quite a good singer.
But she has a little bit too much pizzazz with it. I try to keep it more modest.
And I try to keep it more on target to what the real song sounds like. And that's, uh, and that's the analysis for today.
This PA is obviously the infamous Polish bottom formation, Polish bottom. I don't get the
reference, but I think it's funny. Bear markets are cool too. Yeah, I'm happy to be in a bear
market as well. But yeah, in a bull market, it's just easier. I don't really need to do all that
much, to be honest. And it lets me pretend that I'm more of an investor. Yeah, I agree with you 100%.
When price is trending, these are the environments that I really like as a trader.
But when things are just going sideways and boring as hell, that's the worst in my opinion.
And that's, I mean, effectively, that is what we have seen here over the past uh month and a half now i mean bitcoin really hasn't deviated much
from this range between just under 90 to uh just just under 80 you know um yes this is the pierogi
formation very similar to the xrp formation i'm actually genuinely curious to look at xrp right
now okay trading at 186 yeah again like yes it did reclaim the 200 simple but i think
that this is a formality like this really looks like it wants to break down to me it really does
really does but uh just because some looks like some doesn't mean that it is going to do that so
yeah anyways need to set up all my charts here we'll actually record the youtube video in just
a moment um okay cool yeah all right I think we're just about good to go.
Let's make sure that I can record over here. All right. Very nice. Okay. Okay. Okay. Yes. Beautiful.
All right. It is Tuesday, April the 8th. And the question of the day is is hopium gone is it all gone is it
all is it all ruined for forever for bitcoin or at least for 2025 and that's the topic that we're
going over for today especially with bitcoin bouncing uh quite significantly since we last
spoke even back above 80 000 bucks for a moment there as well, closing yesterday just over 79,000 bucks on the index
here. So, you know, it is a genuine question to be asking that, okay, is our thing safe? Are
things good to go now? Is hopium still alive? Well, to be fair, one of the major points of
hopium that we've been holding onto on this channel actually did not get nullified yet
with yesterday's price action.
One of our major points of hopium, of course, was based off of the hash ribbons indicator signal.
And that fired off back here, which implies that the last low prior to that firing off,
which was 76,700 in March 10th, is not to be closed below.
So trading below it, fine.
We've seen that before in the past, and it still works out. But in this case, it is not closed below. So trading below it, fine. We've seen that before in the past and it still works out. But in this case, it is not closed below. So it's technically still valid, at least
for now. Now, with that in mind, I would really, really, really, really, really caution against
just blindly accepting that this one is going to be reversal right here. Obviously, Bitcoin can
still roll over. But for now, there are actually several other points of hopium. We've spoken about pretty much all of
these on prior streams. So I'll just re-go over it here. Let me go to the next one. The next one
was based off of the five-day HPDR-O indicator. And that has gotten down into really crazy critical levels here that we have not seen
except for all of the times that we've seen major lows during this current bull market.
We've seen pretty much all of the lows come in somewhere around this region where it traded to
on the March dump. And again, these correlate with very, very close to major price lows,
not necessarily in terms of time. You can see several of them calling around the low,
but takes another month or two to really get going on to the upside. But in terms of price,
it was effectively the low. And that one, again, fired off actually technically the last week of
February. But that low, Bitcoin is still above right now. That was $78,500.
So that condition is still valid here too. And I should offer up a counterpoint to that.
While we have seen it come down to these really crazy levels that have marked off all of the
lows during this current bull market, this is the lowest read that we've seen during this whole
market as well. So that can be an indication of a change of behavior. I mean, something has to be
the lowest, right? But if I'm going to bring up a counterpoint, I think that would be a very,
very valid one. On top of that, we have another point of hopium here as well. This one I've not
spoken about on this channel. This is because it's essentially a very still very new and nascent indicator that I've been working on.
But I've been calling it the crown oscillator right here on the five day time frame.
It is also around the major areas that we've seen for historic lows during this bull market cycle, non-impassable market cycles.
Every market cycle kind of has its own read.
But you can see that this aligns with essentially the september 2023 lows and then again more recently
in september of 2024 it is once again hitting this level this would imply that we absolutely
must see it actually cross back up on this next uh period coming in in about two and a half days
so that would imply that we really want to see Bitcoin rally up, you know, decently from here before when would that be Thursday or Friday?
But yeah, that has correlated really, really well with this low right here, again, from September
of 2023, when Bitcoin was hanging out also on a hash ribbons indicator buy signal as well,
if you call that one actually happened right in this region. And then same thing over here in September of 2024.
And same thing with the hash ribbons indicator as well. So we're seeing both of these things
play hand in hand. Of course, these are completely different indicators. Hash ribbons is a
fundamentally based indicator and has nothing to do with other technical tools that we look at,
like that crown oscillator or the HPRO,
which are also both quite different than each other as well. So it is interesting to me to see
that these things still hold for now, but they are at the maximum point of potential failure.
So what do I mean by that? It's like the maximum point of both potential failure, but also
potential profits, I suppose. I mean, you're not gonna have to wait around
for too long at these price levels here
to figure out if this is gonna work out or not.
But yeah, let's go over, however,
still one of the major heuristics
that we've been essentially following on this channel
for quite some time now
that essentially made us bearish back here in late February
and has been getting marched down the whole way through.
And it's the most simple thing of all time.
It's trend, right?
And as far as trend goes, it does still make me a lot more geared towards the downside
or at least expecting downside here.
And where is the new PA pivot as far as the last major high goes?
Well, according to our indicator, it's right here,
just above $85,000 on the index. That would have to be closed above on a closing basis.
Personally, I'd like to see it actually close a little bit higher than that, somewhere above
about $87,000, reclaiming the $200,000 there. But either which one is probably a good sign.
You could imagine that if Bitcoin were to reclaim these regions, the other criteria that we looked
at for the HPRO and, of course,, you know, these things would start to turn around
in a positive direction as well. So if you just need like a very obvious price area to be aware
of, this would be it for me. You know, if Bitcoin can start to close above there, okay. You know,
we have a trend reversal in progress and, you know, it doesn't necessarily mean that Bitcoin's
going to fucking zoom in green dillow to 100,000 bucks exactly from that point. But I would start to really entertain the
higher probability that Bitcoin is indeed going to be moving sideways and up from that region.
But until then, the trend is your friend until the end of the trend. And the trend has not ended
just yet. I mean, the trend actually literally just made a new low. So if anything, we have
continuation as of right now. And typically, trends end if it's a downtrend with another higher low. So we have yetified if Bitcoin closes below that 76,700 region on a daily time frame.
Now, I've said all of this, and that is essentially the hopium right now, which is still alive, you know, which is still alive, I suppose.
However, however, what we're going to get into next is why I think this is highly risky and still likely to come down.
Well, one would be based off the trend, obviously.
But the next one is something that we have not mentioned for the past couple of days.
And that would be back here.
This would be the April statistics.
So first and foremost, I want to call out these stats right here.
The Bitcoin April
open to low. So what I've done is I've gone through each and every past April in Bitcoin's
history and measured the difference between the open of the month and then the low of the month,
not the close, but literally the low of the month. And I found something very interesting because
when we bifurcate this data between positive and negative closing Aprils, well, we find something that's pretty fucking consistent here.
For positive closing Aprils, so assuming that April is actually going to reclaim some of the critical regions and actually close green, basically,
we have seen still an average difference of about 3.5%, even when the month closes green again, between the
open and the low. So to put that into perspective, three and a half percent from the monthly open
would have been, I think about, that would be, yeah, 79 or about 80,000 bucks. However,
we have seen already about almost a 10% drawdown, nearly a 10% drawdown.
Well, I can show you straight up that we've never seen an April closed green, and it goes
down more between the open versus low than almost 7%.
That's the highest number that we've ever seen ever.
That was in 2018.
It was actually 695.
All the other ones you can see are significantly less than that. A lot of these coming in around about 1%.
So I do think that that is also concerning because we've already seen Bitcoin overshoot
that quite significantly. Yes, there is one outlier where that was not true. That was 2011.
So literally like the first time that we ever saw this. I don't know how much you trust that,
especially because the returns around that time were just so crazy. But there was a
27.5% delta almost, and the month did close positively. But I would argue that that 27,
or sorry, the 2011 data point right here is probably not relevant. On the other side,
when we've seen April close negatively, we've obviously seen, you know, a bigger average
difference between the open and the low than if it closes positively, closer to about 18.5% side, when we've seen April close negatively, we've obviously seen a bigger average difference
between the open and the low than if it closes positively, closer to about 18.5% or about 18%,
let's say. So, putting that into perspective, if this month closes red, we would actually expect
the low of the month to come in around the very high $60,000 territory, which actually I do think is still very much possible
here, pending confirmation of the break of the March lows on a daily closing basis, that is.
But yeah, there's that. There's also this as well. So when we go over the Bitcoin April lows data,
again, for positive closing April months, we find that the low
typically comes relatively early within the month, like around the end of the first week
of the month on average. And we just passed day number seven as of yesterday. The average here
is about eight and a half. So technically, maybe it could go into today as well. But if we really
start to see Bitcoin making new lows compared to what we saw yesterday from here on, it's a really good signal that this thing is going to close red for this month.
And we're going to see Bitcoin, you know, continue lower because, you know, it's right at that major balancing point.
So if it does break lower, it's, you know, likely going a decent amount lower.
amount lower. I would say anywhere between like 10 to 15% lower. Anyways, on top of that,
I would say anywhere between like 10 to 15 percent lower.
I want to pull up something that I have not actually made mention of on YouTube, but I have
made mention of on what's it called on Twitter. And that is, yes, that is this. Okay. So what I've
done here, let me get rid of this. Actually, these are not relevant data points. Boom and boom. Let me get
rid of this as well. So what I've done here is I've drawn a time Fibonacci extension from the
high to low of the past market cycle. And I found that the forwards projections align really well
with major pivots on price action. They're not super perfect, but they're pretty fucking good.
So for example, this projection this, this, this projection
would have told you, Hey, you know, we got something new going on right here on this high
from April in 2023. And again, over here in July of 2023 called the breakout and change behavior
here in December of 2023, one of the major highs of the 2024 consolidation alongside the next major
high in the 2024 consolidation. Again,
it wasn't like super perfect here. I mean, it would have been nice if it caught like the actual
high, but it is what it is. And then of course it did catch pretty much around the current all-time
high. And the next projected date of significance is actually all the way here on the 5th of May.
Sorry, is that right? The 5th of May? I could have sworn it was like April 26th
before. Maybe I'm on the wrong timeframe or something. But anyway, somewhere around there,
like the end of this month slash early next month, it's really going to be a humongous difference
anyways. So, you know, should we expect a low somewhere around this date? I would say yes,
because I mean, it's probably not going to be high. It's probably not going to be high.
So I would remain a little bit cautious until the end of this month slash beginning of May,
because things still are more or less risky, in my opinion. Again, as long as Bitcoin is below
that trend pivot at about 85 and a half thousand bucks and before, you know, this next projected date of potential
change.
So that I thought was actually very interesting.
And then, of course, we should talk about the if we get over here, where is it?
Where did I put it?
Yes.
Stochastic momentum on CME.
Several things to be aware of here.
All higher term timeframes are aligning once again.
term timeframes are aligning once again. We see the daily timeframe showing downside momentum.
We see the daily time frame showing downside momentum.
If Bitcoin closes today below 82,100, the two day timeframe is freshly crossing down, by the way,
also playing out a trendline rejection from this regression coming off of the last few major highs,
that would be the January highs and even the December highs. And that one remains down as
long as Bitcoin's closing below 83,500 bucks. The three-day timeframe is also having a fresh
cross down, by the way. That one will confirm below $80,350. Right now trading about $1,000
below that, so it doesn't really mean too much, but it's not closing tonight. It's closing in
actually two and a half days. Then the five-day timeframe, also going to be showing downside as
long as Bitcoin's below $83,300. The weekly, also going to be showing downside as long as Bitcoin's below 83.3. The weekly also
going to be showing downside as long as Bitcoin's below 83.3. 10-day timeframe coming down hard here
as long as Bitcoin's below 105. Two-week timeframe also coming down hard as long as Bitcoin's below
105 as well. The monthly we already know is down heavy from 107. And the quarterly is, well,
it's not going to be closing anytime soon, but the biimonthly is pivoted at $90,000 as well.
So, you know, that would still be my concerns as far as the higher term timeframes go.
You know, I do think that Bitcoin is more likely to kind of roll over here and trade lower.
Maybe it tries a little bit of a bounce in the short term.
That would be completely fine.
I mean, I think stocks are probably going to have their own bounce as well.
So, why can't Bitcoin, you know? But yeah, you know, again, nothing changes as far as trend goes,
as long as you're below this pivot here, which now that I recognize actually on CME, it's not $85,000,
it's closer to $86,000 and change there. So, you know, I would still remain, personally,
I remain cautious as long as Bitcoin is below that number. Yes, there's a few point of hopiums, which have not been destroyed just yet,
but I don't know how long that's going to go on for it, because this really does, to me,
look like it wants to break further down. But just because it looks like that to me doesn't
mean that it will. Again, the obviously identifiable area of breakdown continuation,
which would imply Bitcoin, you know, at least goes into the upper 60s, I would imagine, is closing below that March low.
That's when you start to lose all of the other relevant points of hopium.
And then it's some doomium after that, because anytime that we have seen this hash ribbon
signal fail over here, which has happened three out of 20 times, to be fair. Whenever we have seen it fail, Bitcoin has typically come down significantly
after that point. But there is one thing that really, really rubs me the wrong way about this
current iteration, is that even when we've seen the hash ribbons indicator fail, like we saw back
here in 2020, before the Ronaona dump there was still a pretty fucking
epic rally i mean that's up 53 over the course of 40 days that's a big deal i i think at least
uh in 2021 same thing over here bitcoin went up to new all-time highs nearly 60 or more than 60
over the course of uh three months or so and then yes it did come down significantly after that but
you know we have not seen any rally from the current signal like at all, like at all. And again, you know, we would
expect that these things take, you know, at least like a month or two. But as of right now, I'm
pretty much fired off on the top of that last rally. So it would be the first signal if it fails
that just completely didn't get anything properly.
But that would be a signal in and of itself, like I said,
suggesting that we're going to see a pretty nasty drop off after that.
So yeah, that's pretty much it for the main portion of this analysis.
I wanted to come back and check on the quantum wave bands here.
I've seen a lot of people super interested in this, which is good.
I think it's a really great tool for newer people
because it gives you an idea of what a strategy can look like. I understand I think it's a really great tool for newer people because, you know, it gives you an
idea of what a strategy can look like.
I understand that not everyone's a scalper.
That's completely fine.
You can try it out for free, of course, for 30 days with the code trial and all capitals
here.
But the 30 minute time frame, you know, it's been chugging along, doing its thing, taking
its small scalp wins and not taking humongous losses on the other side.
More importantly, you know, Even if you're an experienced
trader, I do think that it offers up a nice edge because when it fires off these entries,
you typically know that you're in an area where you should be expecting at least a little bit of
a bounce. Now, I do think that you could optimize those entries a little bit better if you have just
even a small amount of know-how in trading. But ultimately, it's there for anyone to try if you're so interested. And
we actually will be raising the price at the end of this month. We'll also be, of course,
offering or we'll also be accompanying it with significant upgrades. We're going to be adding
new strategies and even its own Discord as well. But that's not coming until May 1st. So yeah,
I think that's a good place for me to be leaving off on this video. That's enough shilling for one
day. Hasn't done anything in the past day.
The last trade was actually a loss right here.
But more importantly, it's been holding its own throughout this pretty nasty downside move.
So, happy with that.
And I think that's a good place for me to be leaving off.
We actually recorded this video live here on Twitter.
If you want to join in, I think I will actually be doing that from now on,
where I go live on Twitter Twitter where I record the YouTube videos for anyone who just wants to come and hang out.
It's very easy to do.
And yeah, we'll see how that goes.
Anyways, as always, I'd like to wish you the best, best.
Take care.
Much love.
And see you hopefully Wednesday.
All right.
Nice one.
Nice one, sirs and sirs.
I'll bring the comments back here.
See what else we got.
Oh, thank you for reposting the stream. I'll read through some of these and then I'll sign off. Like I said, I'm not trying to stay here for too long today.
Yes, Bear Mark's cool too. Someone clipped the beautiful singing.
It cannot be done. Waiting for Ben Cowan to make an XRP is going home video.
Is XRP going home?
Well, its home is back below a dollar.
Well, I don't think it's impossible here, but still well and far away.
For me, I'd need to see closing below February lows.
And at that point, yeah, I think so.
And yeah, I mean, when I look at this, I do think it's going to roll over here, to be honest with you.
But if you want to go buy the book, it's technically not broken down just yet.
Jay Rod says, I checked the past cycles to this most recent top.
And when Bitcoin reaches its previous all-time high to new cycle top, they are all around
300 days.
The 109k top was 312 days.
Could be a sign.
OK, I checked the past cycles to the most recent top.
Okay, so the past cycle top?
Yes, the past, no, the past top in that rally.
Let me actually just recreate this.
I want to make sure I'm on the same page as you here
because that does sound like an interesting point.
Yeah, 315 days.
Okay, so you mean from that cycle's high to high, it's about, okay, what about this one?
203 days.
So that doesn't hold up there, unfortunately.
Let's see.
And what about this one here?
I guess it depends.
What time frame are you using?
Maybe you're using a different time frame than what I'd be trying to recreate this on.
But why are we not on the YouTube tonight, sir?
You know, I will be going back on YouTube lives as well. Of course,
uh, I just wanted to try this out for today and I didn't want to do like a full on live stream today. So I figured we'll do like a half live stream, you know, do, do it live on Twitter and
then post it to YouTube. And then of course, yes, I will do the YouTube live streams. Uh, I'll
continue to make them Tuesday and Friday. Just this week is a weird week, um, with my schedule.
So, uh, so it didn't really work.
Um, but yeah, my man, keep on with X two and a half, uh, two spot, 8,000 viewers right
now.
Crazy cryptocurrency, uh, people like myself, I suppose.
Yeah, man.
Uh, I don't know how much to trust the Twitter, uh, the Twitter numbers though.
I think what I've heard is that they actually, um, don't count when people stop watching.
So it's a little bit of a disingenuous way of, uh, of putting out that number.
Um, there, it's like, there's been almost 2,900 views.
That doesn't mean that there's 2,900 people watching right now.
doesn't mean that there's 2,900 people watching right now. No, when it makes a new high. Okay.
No, when it makes a new high.
Okay.
I think I'm not, I'm not fully understanding, um, what you mean, like a new all time high.
Oh, I see this one. Yes. Um, but they would have to be here and here, right? Or maybe you're
talking about, no, well, 200 days. I mean, it's still pretty damn close.
Yeah, 207 days still, I mean, in the ballpark there.
What about this one?
I'm probably not doing this right, though.
No, this one is 39 days.
Yeah, so it's not going to work as well.
I must be doing this the wrong way. I'm not understanding you perfectly.
So that's my fault, though.
I'm sure it probably makes sense. to any of you, um, uh, perfectly. So that's, that, that's, that's my fault though. Um,
I'm sure, I'm sure it probably makes sense. Just my brain is, my brain has been fucked.
My brain has been fried, uh, this whole week. I'll tell you why. Cause every day I wake up at 2 AM and then I can't help myself. I need to check, I need to check prices. I need to check
prices. And then I ended up staying up for like an hour, hour and a half, and then I can go back
to sleep. But, uh, I don't think it's, I don't think it's doing me much good, to be honest, especially during a time when I probably need a little bit more of my brain cells.
But yeah, you know, going back to Bitcoin here and just kind of wrapping this one up, if we go down to the very, very low-term timeframes, if we start to see some hit and bearish divergence here on like the four-hour time frame, I'd say that's a good signal that we're going to be retesting these lows.
As of right now, it actually is not possible, or it's not that it's not possible.
It's just there's no hidden bearish divergence at all
because the four hour RSI is still very much below Saturday's high,
which was all the way here at about $83,500.
Maybe the hourly has something
right now, probably some bearish divergence if I had to guess. Yeah. So short term, you know,
do we see another swing down? Sure. But it's an hourly timeframe. It doesn't necessarily mean
that it's going to fully break down here. So I think it'll just take some time naturally and a
lot of patience. Aladino says, I just put my notifications on. I like these videos on Twitter.
Awesome, man. Yeah. That's what I was thinking. You know, I love watching like live streams on, um, on Twitter just because it's,
it's just so fucking convenient, man. It really is. Um, but, but like I said, we will continue
to do on, on YouTube as well. Dude, man, bro says when next fight, I'm really hoping in May. Um,
really, really hoping that we can do a May fight in Las Vegas. Um, I'm, you know, I've already been
speaking with promoters and everything. Um, and I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm in if they can find an
opponent and, uh, and everything makes sense, but you know, it's, we got less than two months to go
now and I haven't heard shit. So I don't, I don't know. I mean, a lot of the time these things do
happen last minute, but, uh, when that time starts ticking down, I start to think maybe maybe it's not going to happen.
So, yeah. Yeah. We stream it on X, man. We stream on X. And like I said, I'll probably continue to
do live streams on X maybe every day while I record my regular videos and I'll just post them
on YouTube a little bit later. So, yeah, we'll sign off on that note.
Like I said, this is just the first of many.
It was pretty damn fun.
I really enjoyed it.
Hopefully you enjoyed it as well.
Keep an eye out for the one tomorrow.
We'll be doing the same thing.
And yeah, with all that said,
take care and much love and see you hopefully tomorrow.
