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JEROME POWELL DAY EVE | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Dec. 9, 2025 Duration: 2:39:13Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, participants explored the upcoming GameStop earnings report, the potential for a bullish market driven by rate cuts, and the implications of major tech stocks like Google and Tesla on growth trends. The conversation also highlighted the significance of upcoming IPOs, including SpaceX, and the evolving landscape of AI and semiconductor industries, particularly in relation to China.
Full Transcription
Hello, hello. What is up, everybody? We are trying again today with me hosting the Spaces.
If I drop again, I drop again. It is what it is.
I hope you are all doing well. It is Tuesday.
We have a GameStop earnings after the close. GameStop earnings the day before Jerome Powell Day.
Game stonk earnings after the close.
Game stop earnings the day before Jerome Powell Day.
Markets doing their thing.
Low volume.
My portfolio is up a little bit.
At least my individual stock went.
Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Had a nice little intraday move there.
Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Nice intraday move.
My BM&R.
40 bucks.
We're almost back.
We are almost back.
Who would have thunk it?
Some of you guys definitely
did not think we were going to be back here on BMNR
so quickly. Logical was the one who thought
we were. Shout out to
that. She's a wild mover.
You own any BMNR right now,
Logical?
No, I cut some crypto, man.
I just stuck to... I wanted to keep
cash-flowing businesses more so.
That's fair fair that is fair
but uh but yeah it is an interesting day in the market so far a couple stocks a couple
stocks down logical general what's the volume look like today I'd imagine it's pretty low
on like spies and queues um yeah I don't yeah it's really low today it's less than yesterday
actually so pretty I feel like calm before the storm, basically.
Yeah, waiting for Jerome Powell tomorrow.
We also do get the summary of economic projections tomorrow,
which is interesting.
What the SEP is, for anyone who doesn't know,
that tells you what the Fed is thinking right now
for the end of next year, the end of the year after that,
and the end of the year after that.
And that is for inflation, where interest rates will be at,
all that stuff.
The market does tend to move off of that a little bit and then the jerome powell press conference
i feel like we're just kind of going to get so the the base expectations if you look at the seat
well if you look at the betting markets prediction markets whatever it is tomorrow we are going to be
cutting rates 25 basis points if you look forward into next year, if I can pull up the CME FedWatch tool,
which can move pretty quickly,
we're only pricing in two cuts next year.
I did see Goldman Sachs coming out
saying they expect them to cut by 25 basis points tomorrow,
expect the rates to hold firm in the first half of the year,
and then cut rates coming out of that,
probably during the new Fed chair.
So the markets are not pricing in aggressive rate cuts
going forward I imagine Jerome Powell and the SDP will show something similar ish to that
but I don't know I I I don't know how big of a reaction we should expect going into this FMC
tomorrow but I would imagine a lot of volume would be coming back into the market
there's a lot of wait and see.
Prediction markets are saying like 95% chance that they cut rates by 25 basis points.
CV FedWatch tool is saying 87% chance.
So, interesting times.
Logical though.
You got anything you want to start us off on this one?
And then we'll go over to Options Mike and Brian Lund
and The Godfather.
And then we'll see where we're at coming out with this.
By the way,
I mean,
actually,
I appreciate everyone for coming in and hanging out with us here.
If you guys are in the spaces,
drop in that purple pill,
the purple one in the bottom right of your screen.
Just any stocks you want us to cover today.
And then as people say stuff you're interested in, make you give them a follow we appreciate people for joining us but
yeah logical stars out yeah i mean i think people are just mike do you want to go first or it's up
to you do you have something to say there uh i literally have to bug out of here in a couple
minutes i need to get out of there out of the house quickly so i'm just gonna say hello to you
guys and let you take it logical.
You know, my view is do nothing day here ahead of tomorrow's Fed,
but names like Google and hood and Tesla and Amazon get nice trades.
And that's it.
You can take it away logical.
You got this, bud.
Yeah.
I mean, I think it's just the calm before the storm,
nothing to really look into too much.
I actually think that individual names still look quite good though
i mean there's a lot of pockets of like strength um man a name that i completely got shaken out of and blundered was warby parker seeing that two days in a row with huge volume just hurts my soul
because you know i was on this maybe a few a couple weeks ago and i said they bought the december 2026 25 calls in size when
this thing was at 17 typically something that big of size that's you know far out of the money
is typically a sign and then now it's at like 23 bucks so you know there are names in this market
that are going to work i think um like what today morning, we actually got an all-time high in IWM.
Like, I understand there are jitters and fears around FOMC because for the last two years,
every CPI report, every FOMC meeting has been the Super Bowl.
But I think with every ongoing data point and ongoing Fed meeting, it's become less and less
important.
And so that's actually a good thing. That's like a sense of returning to normalcy. I actually think the,
I mean, look, can we get volatility tomorrow? I think everyone in the world is expecting it.
It's probably priced in at this point, but we just had a pullback. I don't think this starts
a new pullback. I think that's the only thing that most people care about if they're long in this market
is, is there a downside risk?
Because I am very long right now.
That's probably most people's, that's where their head's at.
So I think statistically speaking, it's pretty low probability that you get another pullback
after a 5% correction.
You don't even get one typically in the next quarter to follow.
That's just the data.
We had a big shakeout.
You had comments from the new Fed chair to be Hassett talking about, you know, fiscal policy
could be even more stimulative. You know, the person who's running the Fed should just do the
right thing, aka cut rates. So even, you know, I think, you know, you're getting 25 bips tomorrow,
whatever the press conference is, has always been a know, you're getting 25 bips tomorrow, whatever the
press conference is, has always been a big thing, but we have to remember that, you know, J-PAL's
days are numbered. Great Fed chair, by the way. No disrespect to the man. He did great, I think.
So yeah, I mean, I think you just got to look for spots where you want to be long and I'm very long. I'm like 150% long at this point. So yeah, no fear. Um,
just, I think there's just so many things that look good. And a lot of them are coming off of,
uh, pretty sharp pullbacks after this earnings season, which was a big reset in the market.
You know, I know index is obviously just fell 5 percent but many names down 20 30 40 i'm sticking to the higher quality names that are in a pullback you know um amazon and meta not
really working yet but you know with the meta you you continue to see like big put cells put
cells in the money are typically quite bullish they're high delta that means that people are
willing to buy the dip on it i'm not not really, even if there's some weakness in meta day to day, it still seems fine to me.
And I think if you got any more pullback in some of these names, then they would probably set up
for leaps opportunities. What I've been doing a lot is adding a lot more exposure just across
the board, different sectors. I've talked about, I like EM emerging markets. I actually was looking at coupon today. I like,
you know, some of these commodities exposures. I think that's going to be good. I still think
the bios look great. Today, XBI a little bit down, but I think it was expected after the huge
weekend, there was an Ash conference where we got tons of great data, a lot of names basically
gapped up yesterday. So sometimes you get that in biotech world great data, a lot of names basically gapped up yesterday.
So sometimes you get that in biotech world. And then a lot of them had offerings. So probably
people pulling money out of investment A to fund investment B. So that's probably why the XBI is
read today. I've actually been adding a lot of bios today too. Yeah, I mean, it's just, it feels
like it's going to be a melt-up market.
I could just feel it.
You know, when I just actually exited a trade on Frog, I think I mentioned it on the spaces a couple days ago when we were talking about Digital Ocean as well.
The chart was just really, really nice.
I followed some flow on some January calls.
Those were up 150% in a few days.
So once, you know, things start working again to that level of like
very quickly to start to see some price appreciation and follow through on the charts
typically it means we're we're kind of transitioning back into a better bullish
constructive market um yeah because you could just kind of see it in the charts and the way
the trades are working and entries kind of are holding up. So I still am a little cautious on speculative themes and names.
I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the pre-revenue companies, the high beta ones,
have seen their highs for the cycle. I actually don't think that's that crazy of a take.
So mostly I would just say stick to quality quality there's a lot of beaten up quality
you know they're trading at fairly reasonable valuations and you know that could end up being
a nice catch-up trade if this bull market continues which that is my base case anyways i'll pass it
off appreciate the thoughts there to get us started illogical let's uh let's get everyone
involved and then we'll circle back.
Brian, I don't know if the conversation was interesting yesterday.
Do you have any thoughts on the market in general, what you're watching?
I've got some thoughts around Tesla.
Check me on this, Evan.
The JP Morgan analyst that came out the other day, that's their new analyst,
right? They swapped analysts. Is that correct? Yeah. Okay. So I think what's really interesting
is the reaction. So the take was, I think gave a price of what, 424, something like that.
And just like elections are won by the middle, you get the extremists on one side of the electoral, you know, the left side extremists on the right.
Neither one of those sides can win the election.
They've got to convince the people in the center, right?
Because that's where the most people are.
When you get an announcement like we saw from JP Morgan on Tesla, You're initially going to get those people that are
going to come out and they're going to sell. They're going to go, aha, see, I knew it. Tesla,
they're overvalued. It's a lot of hype. This thing has gotten ahead of itself. So you get that first
group of people that sell. And then you wonder, will that get to the critical mass? Will that
selling get to the point where that center group of investors, traders go, you know what, I think I'm just going to take some off here?
Or do you get the people that say, oh, great, this is another idiot that doesn't understand what Tesla is about.
I want to buy every dip in Tesla.
So we have this little fight going on.
And, you know, so yesterday we had the guys that were, you know, anti-Tesla or Tesla's ahead of itself.
And today, actually at the end of yesterday, but most of today, we've seen the people that say, no, no, no, Tesla is great.
What I'm watching is that low from yesterday, that 435 level.
If we don't get near that level again, if we hold here and start to go higher, I think Tesla is on a rocket ride to 500 in the not too far future.
If we get below that 435, that doesn't mean Tesla is going to tank, but it means that short term, it just may need more time.
So I think yesterday's low is a really important spot to watch, and it's a way that you can just gauge your risk. If you're not
in Tesla and you've been wanting to get in and you think it's got potential, you bought it
somewhere today and you're maybe risking anywhere from five to seven bucks, that's not too bad on a
$447 stock. But I think personally, it looks to me like it's going to probably be heading higher
in the not-too-distant future,
but I will obey the price action no matter which way it goes.
Obey the price action whichever way it goes.
That is kind of what we're doing here.
Fair enough.
And obviously tomorrow, being Jerome Powell, they could change some stuff for the entire market there
let's look at one of the names outperforming today though i know it is low volume how about
that poet was talking about poet yesterday with stock talk and that thing's ripping that's a nice
mover oh it's interesting godfather i see your hand up. How are you doing, sir?
Good, good. I wondered if I could just go next. Got to run also.
Look, I'm fully focused on the Fed, as I think the whole market is,
in the same way that you want to pay attention to the setups on a price going into an earnings report.
You want to pay attention to the setups on a price going into an earnings report.
This IWM hitting a 52-week high today in advance of this Fed meeting, I do not think is a good setup.
I'm firmly in the camp that we are going to see a hawkish cut.
We have moved over 10% from that November 20th big bearish engulfing candle reversal on the Williams,
you know, in the near term, lower rates comment. I think that's an absolutely massive move. We've
seen 125 or so basis points move in the US dollar. And all the while, you know, 10-year yields are
now at multi-month highs, right? And with the 10-year auction today, which was kind of so-so, those yields firmed up even more.
Just a reminder of what happened last year in December.
You know, I appreciate we're at a different point in the cycle and all the rest of that,
but they cut 25 basis points as well.
And the 10- year promptly rose 40 basis
points. And what happened to IWM in the month of December last year, it fell eight and a half
percent. So look, I think the risks are elevated here. It was telling my discord folks, look,
you keep your list of names that you think are quality that you want to add to, be they themes or otherwise, and then you hold off on pulling any triggers here.
And I think seasonally also with tax-less selling, which expresses itself more in smaller cap names because the institutional year end is over October 31st already and retail is more involved in these names.
is over October 31st already and retail is more involved in these names. You hold off,
if you can, you hold off right till Christmas Eve. That's typically the best time to do it.
So I think there's real risk of a reversion to the mean trade here. Again, this is a short-term
call here. I do believe that we're in a rate- rate cutting cycle, that's going to speed up, especially with
the new Fred chair. You know, I jokingly said in our discord that, you know, I wouldn't be surprised
to see Trump announce Hassett as Powell's, you know, predecessor, right in the middle of his
presser, you know, something like that, or they come out with some sort of a fiscal stimulus announcement, you know, just as Powell was talking, you know, hawkishly. That wouldn't surprise me at all. So, you know, longer term, I'm a firm believer in the Trump put in this market. I do believe that there are going to be a lot more stimulative regulatory and fiscal activity, and that will only increase in terms of pace as we get closer and closer to the midterms in November of next year. So yeah, I think it is a good time to do nothing.
I personally am short some IWM. I personally am short some nail going into this meeting,
just because I think the bond market is telling us something here.
Certainly, the rate cut itself is fully priced in. This hawkishness can express itself in several
ways. I think it was already mentioned, we're likely to get at least two descents from Logan
and Hammock. If you consider that Mirren wants 50 basis points, maybe there's a descent the other
way there. But yeah, we do have the dot
plot. And I think it's important because the hawkishness could be expressed there as well.
And, you know, not only do they, you know, could Powell basically convey that the bar is higher
for further cuts, because, you know, we're two employment reports behind. We're not going to get October and November PPIs until January.
And, you know, the other thing is, it's not just the chair, right?
It's the committee.
And so the dots kind of tell you, you know, whether it's HACET or whomever, you know,
how much work they're going to have to do with the committee.
So there are a lot of ways in which hawkishness could be presented coming out of this FOMC. And I think we'll see that
just, you know, given all the factors that I laid out. Some specific things to stocks I wanted to
talk about today. Goldman had their financials conference. And to the extent that there may be
a lot of folks here that are interested in AI and especially AI efficiency and I think that that whole AI theme has sort of moved
beyond just the hardware spend into people that are actually benefiting from it. Financials
are the top of every list in terms of an industry that will benefit from AI and AI efficiencies
and a couple of things that came out which I thought were interesting at that conference, is that JPMorgan talked about early, early days in productivity improvements.
They've doubled their current rate to 6% in terms of how they quantify annual productivity improvement.
They're seeing an increase in productivity of operations specialists by 40
to 50 percent. This is what they forecast over the next five years. So all of this is extremely
bullish for names like PATH. The Consensus Bureau also came out with their study saying that AI
adoption across industries in general is only around 17 percent. I would posit that it's probably
higher than that in financials and
insurance and some of these areas that will benefit the most. But we saw Wells Fargo also
talk about rolling out AI across every segment of their business, investment banking, compliance,
legal, call centers, you name it. They're using as many tools as they can possibly get. So that theme, I think, is well intact.
We've got a couple of earnings this week that are worth paying attention to.
We've got AVAV after the close today in terms of a look at the drone sector.
These guys have a good track record.
That actually is a little interesting.
Wow, AVAV.
I'm looking at their...
This whole group trades at lofty multiples,
but I will say that AVAV trades at the lowest of those.
Just to give you an example,
the entire group is trading in an average of over 100 times
on a PE basis on 2026, and AVAV is at 62.
Can you hear me, Godfather?
These guys have lower
margins so they should trade a lower margin or lower multiple however um yeah i think i can
hear you i've been possibly quite good they had a big contract win uh recently and i suspect their
guidance will be solid godfather can you hear evan another name that um i think is worth uh
we'll just let him go i don't know maybe i give me a little. We'll just let it go. I don't know, maybe we'll just talk after.
We'll be focused on it when they report is, of course, Broadcom.
And we're trading at 40 times right now.
So the valuation is definitely demanding.
Of course, all eyes are on the XPU story.
And their current AI rev guide for 26 is already 100%.
And I think that that and that alone is the bar for them. They need to raise that to see the stock
take off, you know, materially from here. This is a name that has moved about 7%, you know, in each
of the last earnings prints. So, you. So certainly an important name and one that
I am paying attention to. What else is on the earnings list? Oracle, of course, after the
close on Wednesday, and then Costco and Lululemon Aftermarket on Thursday. Lululemon is going to be
interesting to me in so much as that is on
the list of most people's january effect plays uh and january effect sort of expresses itself more
in these retail names other than you know more than others um just given the attention that
retail gets at this time of year on top of everything so um yeah i'll be paying attention
to that name as well that That is it for me.
And you can't hear me, right, Godfather?
All right, well, he might need to go down and disconnect,
but there actually was some interesting stuff going on there.
I did not know that Arrow Environment,
however you say it, AV reports earnings today after the close.
Interesting.
I kind of just stopped looking at GameStop.
I do see on AV, AV's's earnings they went from last quarter it was or sorry three quarters ago was 167 million dollars of revenue the quarter
before last was 275 and then last quarter was 454 so they're growing revenue pretty quickly here
what's stock talk i'd imagine this is a name you've done a little research into and what
what's happened over the last couple quarters sorry Sorry, did I cut out there, you guys?
You just couldn't hear us the whole time, Godfather.
Oh, sorry.
Can you hear me now?
I can, yeah. My apologies.
A.V.A.V., do you know what's happened over the last couple quarters?
There's quite the revenue jump here over the last three quarters.
Yeah, look, they're the world leader in drones.
So, yeah, you would expect that.
I mean, the valuation reflects it.
This whole group is seeing massive growth. I mean, you know, Carmen's estimated to grow at 24%,
KTOS 20%, and these guys at 17. So they're actually showing less growth if you look at
consensus numbers and their peers.
What, 17% year over year?
Year over year, 26 over 25. I suspect that goes up. I suspect you see them raise their backlog as
well.
This is where all the new defense money is being spent.
This is space-based initiatives like Golden Dome, etc.
Year for year, their revenue more than doubled.
And it's not projected to... What happened?
Why was last quarter such a big from $275 in Q4 up to $454?
It doesn't look like it was super cyclical before.
I think it's just timing in terms of conversion of their backlog.
Those numbers I pointed out are based on
the consensus numbers. 2.34
billion for next year, over 2 billion
for this year. But again, I think that those numbers
are low.
I don't think the valuations
themselves mean a whole lot because there's just not a lot
of large cap players.
There's Carmen, KTOS, and A and avav those are your big cap names and then from there you you know you're
into the red cats and the lower quality you know drone names all below that so
interesting okay well i was just looking i did not expect to see some sort of revenue growth
like that but it is expected similar amounts, $470 million of revenue.
Well, Evan, it was well forecasted
because if you go back to Q1,
the estimates were like 400 whatever million.
So the street knew that quarter was coming.
That's why the stock trades at 100p.
So I'm seeing it's 470 million this quarter,
which is around,
like are we expecting to stabilize around this level or is this like
Yeah, you posted 454 last quarter. This is like the new it's the new revenue
Yeah, you're gonna revenues are gonna look like instead of what they used to look like
They're gonna look like 400 plus million in revenues per quarter now for that company
But that's already baked into valuation in my opinion. I mean
Trading an insane valuation.
So, yeah. I mean, if you want
like a leader in
drones and you're willing to pay an insane
valuation to deal with volatility for it, yeah, I guess you
could own that, but...
I don't know. Who is the lead? Is
Kratos versus AVAV?
I mean, Kratos and Air of Iron Man do very
different types of drones. I would call Kratos
more of a leader in
turbines, engines, and autonomous weapon systems. That's what I would, Kratos and Air of Iron Man do very different types of drones. I would call Kratos more of a leader in turbines, engines, and autonomous weapon systems.
That's what I would call Kratos a leader in.
They are supersonic.
Yeah, supersonics, hypersonic engines.
Yeah, Florida Turbine Technologies.
And then what's AVAV more?
AVAV is more of an actual direct pure play on drones.
Now, it's like something like 69% of their business.
I'm talking larger fixed-wing
drones, typically. Gotcha.
Not like the CGI-type
ones, but more like those ones. Yeah, the ones that
the military is focused on, disposable fixed-wing
drones. And
I don't know
if Air of Ironman will be able to fill all the use
cases that we want with this multi-billion dollar
order. There's going to be spillover to other drone manufacturers but
i mean yeah it's a solid company it gets you the exposure that you want if you want it at an
very expensive price i mean i kind of think of aerovironment and kratos as analogs in that
space because they're very different businesses, very different specializations,
but they're both very expensive, growing fast,
potentially in position to become prime level status
in the next few years.
I think they both have a shot.
So yeah, I mean, you get what you pay for kinda
with this industry, but I mean,
everyone knows the drone thing is coming.
It's very well forecasted.
It doesn't mean that it's a bad investment.
I think having exposure is actually quite a good thing.
But there are some opportunities that are more expensive than others,
especially the better known names like Air Environment and Kratos.
Hey, StuckTuck, I got a question for you on PLAC.
You there?
Yeah, what's up?
Oh, I just, you know, I've been looking at this name for like five
years and you know i kind of forgot about it when you mentioned it the other day so i dug into it
and you know i see what you see a third of the market cap in cash um i don't see a lot of growth
but i see you know to say it's a non-demanding evaluation would be an understatement right 13
less than 13 times in earnings it looks to me like it's trading around three times in an EV EBITDA basis.
Why the hell is the valuation so low on this name?
I appreciate that there's only 5% top line growth, but yeah, I just get it at 34% EBITDA margins.
Yeah, a couple of reasons.
First of all, being the China exposure.
When the China export controls came up, the stock took a hit.
And rightfully so.
They have a lot of China exposure.
So that was an issue.
The other issue was that their new photomasking facility in Idaho was supposed to go operational earlier this year.
It's the highest end photomasking facility ever built in the United States.
It's a multi-beam mask rider, which there are none of them in the United States.
There's not a single multi-beam mask rider in the whole country except for theirs.
That was supposed to go operational this year, and it was a quarter late.
So wait on quarterly results coming into this, and then there's some pessimism on the street around that.
But like you said said the low growth
i think and the fact that this is generally kind of a tier two space when you look at photo masking
there's either high ic photo masking that's done for ai chips and there's lower tier photo masking
that's done for like phone chips and basic electronic chips most of phototronics business comes from the lower end chips however in the
last three quarters their high ic segment which is dedicated to ai chips has been growing at 17
percent a clip in each of the last three quarters i think 17 18 and like 16 something like that but
it's growing high double.
Unity, that division has an opportunity to become a significant portion of the business, and I think that would force a little bit of a re-rating there.
Now, the thing to watch for this quarter, tomorrow, in my opinion, is what did the
international exposures look like?
What did the China exposure look like?
Was there an inhibition because of U.S. chip controls to work with the Chinese suppliers they've been working with?
You know, were there any issues with securing the product necessary to build new photo masks?
All these things.
So I'd like to know that.
But, yeah, it's the China exposure, lack of growth, and the fact that their multi-beam mask rider was delayed by about a quarter,
potentially even two quarters in terms of putting it in operation. So that's what,
in my opinion, led to the valuation being so undemanding as you refer to it as. But I mean,
look, there's still risks with this name. I'm not saying... I think historically as well,
they haven't had a lot of visibility in their business. They fulfilled orders pretty quickly.
So they had like, I don't know, two to three weeks out.
They didn't have months and months. So I know they've improved lately and they've started to give guidance.
But when I covered this name years ago, you never got guidance out of this company.
So again, I don't know if that's wholesale changed because I haven't focused on this name particularly of late, but not giving guidance certainly obviously can lead to a lower multiple too.
Their business is entirely dependent on new mask cycles, which is like when these larger fabricators or other chip designing companies need to test new designs, right?
And that's a hard thing to predict.
I mean, you could say cyclically they're going to do at the really, really cutting edge chips, like the front end first generation AI chips, the photo masking is done internally.
Because the designs are so proprietary that they don't want to get a third-party photo masker like P-Lab to do it.
And so to the extent they can do their own photo masking for high end chips, they will. The issue has been spillover. Same thing with packaging, right? Spillover demand where there's
just not enough capacity. And so I'm counting on that being a tailwind for Photronics. But
I mean, it's in no way as high conviction for me as Amcor was. It's sort of like a similar thesis
where you have a US based player with no peers, you're kind of betting on more semiconductor volume coming stateside,
and that being a tailwind for Fultronics.
But, yeah, I mean, the thesis isn't as rock solid as it was for Amcor
because Amcor literally has no alternatives.
Fultronics does have some international peers that can do what they do.
And so, yeah, there is a little bit more competition here,
and it is a little bit more of a nuanced story.
But, yeah, I do think it's cheap, like you said.
It's just dirt cheap, and I think it's worth a stab on earnings.
And if these earnings don't go well, then, you know,
I'll revisit it a quarter or two from now and see how it is.
Hey, Evan, can I get in two other things I forgot?
Go for it.
First of all, C1, to the extent that you guys may be following this,
of course, there are rumors out there that Toma Bravo has already made a bid for this company.
C1 Clearwater Analytics provides back office software for the finance business.
What's the ticker?
It's C-W-A-N.
It's C1, C-W-A-N.
So look, this thing traded up from the mid-teens into the low 20s on rumors that Primera and Warburg Pincus,
two private equity firms that previously owned this thing or were major investors and then took it public in 2021,
were back to the table because it just hasn't gotten respect like a lot of software companies,
fears over existential threats from AI.
Theirs is a business, however, where they're benefiting from AI.
They've actually got this AI layer in the middle of their software.
In any event, without getting deep into it, I've looked at this six ways to Sunday.
Every analyst that I've seen come out on this suggests that historical M&A valuations on this are in the high 30s, or sorry, not the high 30s,
in the company.
The stock has sold off on that. You know, it's either, you know, folks are concerned that, you know, the process is going to take longer or, you know, they're concerned that Starbird knows something that they don't know, i.e., you know, the bids that are on the table aren't that great or, you know, management hasn't, you know, widely enough shopped this company, you know, you name it.
I think it's a great opportunity here. This is a rule of
50 company with a very sticky product. It's grossly undervalued, just as it is, which makes
it an asymmetric opportunity, in my opinion. At the end of the day, I think the fact that Starboard
built a 5% stake is really all you need to know. Yes, it might take longer. And, you know, I think
you're seeing a lot of rolling of what were call positions in December and January, you know, into the March and beyond projects, you know, contracts, which probably makes sense.
But, yeah, I think it's a question of when, not if.
And I do think the value to be surfaced on this could be dramatically higher than this current share price.
So I think it's a gift down here in the 21s.
I would also mention silver, I think that's a gift down here in the 21s.
I would also mention silver, I think is interesting.
You know, you heard me say earlier, hopefully you could have heard me when I said it was
short nail and a short IWM just on the tactical short term trade basis going into the Fed.
One would expect the commodities to come off as well because, you know, slower pace of rate cuts leads to a stronger U.S. dollar,
inverse correlation to rates, all the rest of that. You know, we've got the GLD up less than
a half a percent and silver up four and a half, four and a quarter right now. This really speaks
to, I think, what structurally is going on in silver and I won't go on about that, but anyone
that looks at this market knows
that there's been a structural supply deficit for over five years and silver is just, it doesn't
have a lot of primary production. Only 20% of the production annually is primary. So there's not a
big supply response there. It relies on things like recycling. And because of the high price of gold, we've seen traditional gold buying markets like India, which is already the largest buyer of silver for both hoarding and actual production, take on more silver. So we're now at levels that would suggest we're going to go beyond this historical,
you know, 70 ratio between gold and silver with hitting 60 bucks here. So I think it's
really interesting observation in light of what I expect at least to happen, you know,
coming out of the Fed tomorrow. Bullish, by the way, very bullish for silver long term.
tomorrow. Bullish, by the way, very bullish for silver long term.
Yeah, I did see it hitting new highs today. So bullish for the long term.
Is silver compared to other commodities overly bullish or?
Well, look, we've moved a lot, right? But, you know, we've moved from a gold to silver ratio
that was like 100 down to in line with the historical average, which is right where we
are now at 70. It looks like it's going to go further the other average, which is right where we are now at 70.
It looks like it's going to go further the other way, you know, for the reasons I mentioned.
Yeah, it's just interesting to me that we're not seeing as much of a response in some of the other metals as one would expect,
you know, with what's going on in the bond market and what rates are telling you globally.
So, yeah, I mean, I could go on and on about things like the record ETF flows and all the rest of that.
But there are a lot of really interesting structural things happening in silver.
And the fact that it hit this high through 60, you know, on the eve of what I expect to be a hawkish Fed, very interesting.
I would have expected more of a muted move like we've seen in gold today.
So I just think when things are strong in the face of otherwise weak markets,
they're speaking to you, they're telling you something.
And I think I've been a long-term bull on silver,
and I'm super happy with what it appears that silver is telling me today.
I am seeing an interesting headline right here.
I see Wall Street ended posting it, but I want to find the actual one.
SpaceX said to pursue a 2026 IPO, raising far above $30 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, reportedly.
Sorry, I'm jumping
on and off the phone.
You may have missed that stock talk.
Wall Street Engine just put out a post,
and I want to find the article.
SpaceX said to pursue a 2026 IPO.
I just tweeted it to you.
Okay, fair enough. $1.5 trillion
valuation. Very interesting.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, if anyone deserves it they do
and spacex look forward to me so that the story of an 800 billion dollar valuation might actually
be true elon musk you know and said they're not raising new money, but that wasn't really the story.
I thought maybe that was just reports he was seeing.
I don't know.
He came out and denied something,
but I don't know if it was the actual story.
Elon loves to just deny anything from the media.
I think generally these things have some level of truth to them.
Maybe they're not directly pursuing the IPO.
Maybe they're considering it or somebody on the board talked about it,
but like generally these leaks come from somewhere.
But yeah, I mean, that's pretty big deal.
I mean, all these space stocks have been catching a pretty monster bid.
That's probably going to increase the enthusiasm
I'm seeing SpaceX sees about
15 billion dollars of revenue
this year and 20 to 26
next year is that actually what they're
bringing in wow
ASTS spiking on this by the way
okay yeah I'm just seeing this article now.
I want to dig into this.
I find this to be very interesting.
Raising far more than $30 billion.
Where is this?
Numbers in the $15 billion.
The company is expected to boost around $15 billion in revenue this year
and between $22 to $24 billion next year.
SpaceX reporting.
$15 billion billion not bad the space industry is maybe bigger than people would expect off of just that number alone no it's us that's a
reflection the size of the industry that's a reflection probably but for
anyone to say that there's zero revenue what what's the industry in like these, uh, SMRs, but I guess it's nothing.
There's no industry for SMRs yet.
Um, the space industry is complicated because it's not really as big as people think it
It's really just dominated by one company and there's a lot of spillover valuation. I mean, that happens, you know, with companies like Rocket Lab and ASDS,
who are like the only peers to SpaceX really, quote, I'll put peers in air quotes because they're not really peers.
But, you know, ASDS has appeared to the Starlink program in general, although very different technology.
And Rocket Lab has appeared to the Raptor program, the reusable engine program, although a very different technology and the rocket rocket lab has appeared to the the
raptor program the reusable engine program although a very different technology as well so
yeah i mean they'll continue to compete for like the crumbs in the space but you know spacex will
hit 96 market share by the end of the year for payload orbit uh maybe that goes down by two
percent next year i mean okay it creates a couple hundred million dollars
of opportunity for the other guys,
but SpaceX is the only game in town right now
with the space industry.
And so it's not really as big of an industry
as people think it is.
It's just, it's frankly just a monopoly
as it stands currently, a global monopoly too
i'm sorry i want to make sure i get a good post into this one and then we can fully dig into it
i apologize um but this does seem like a big one i i also feel like there's a lot to talk about with IPOs in general, you know,
and this company going public at $1.5 trillion.
I'm very curious of what the future of IPOs in general in these huge companies.
Like when does OpenAI go public?
open AI go public is opening I gonna go public in 2026
Is OpenAI going to go public in 2026?
okay we're the public market seems like a lot of large companies might have been
holding off that may be coming soon maybe it's just one or two but given
what's going on at open I I would not be I would be very surprised if they came in
2026 but anthropic has been is rumored to come next year.
So OpenAI 2027?
I mean, we'll see if these IPOs even get off the mat
or if they're just talking about them.
I mean, yeah, $1.5 trillion sounds nice I mean look the one argument
I have heard which is a good argument is that these IPOs will come because
liquidity is desired and that's a pretty good argument like the opening eye
investors who have been in this thing for five years like some of them just
want liquidity at this point at whatever ungodly valuation the company's
trading at like 500 billion or whatever they want liquidity like someone just
want to sell you know and an IPO makes that easy and it also potentially gives
you this last little burst of hype that you can sell into investors like to do
that especially longtime investors in these private companies so you take andurl spacex and open ai all public next year you create a huge
liquidity event a bunch of investors get paid and you probably make a nice little setup for
a market correction or a crash at the end of that you know once all the all the big boys have gotten
their liquidity out at the top um that would be a really nice setup for
for market correction so yeah i these these ipos are coming i don't know when uh but if they all
do come next year in a lineup that i think net net is probably not a good sign i mean
i don't know that's a lot of market capitalization those are like three of the biggest IPOs in history that would happen at once I don't love that all in the same
year but maybe it's a sign of the times I don't know maybe I'm being naive but
it's not something that I'd be like yeah that's what I want I want to
multi-trillion dollar IPOs and a defense company that's gonna be trading at 200
times sales that's what the market needs right now like I don't think that that's gonna be trading at 200 times sales that's what the market needs right now like I don't think that that's what the market needs right now so who knows
stop up to me anyway so we'll see what happens
it's like it's still a big if this is very early and and we're still in prime
time for that's not true comment coming, which can slap these down pretty quickly.
But we know OpenAI is definitely thinking about it.
I think there's been some coming.
I don't know.
And the prerequisite of that is market staying hot, probably.
We pull back.
Some of these IPO ambitions go away.
1.5 trillion, like I said, obviously sounds good to them.
Yeah, but OpenAI, the thing is, they need liquidity.
OpenAI needs liquidity.
I'd be curious to hear SpaceX and see actually the numbers there.
I mean, we reported revenue, $15 billion this year, $22 to $24 billion in revenue next year.
I'd imagine there's not much profits there.
Was that the revenue for this year, $24 billion?
Was that the revenue for this year, $24 billion?
$15 billion.
$15 billion.
The report that just came out said $15 billion
of revenue for 2025.
$22 to $24 billion in 2026
is the production.
So 100 times sales.
Yeah.
Sign of the times.
Sign of the times. You did start this out with global monopoly
yeah it is a global monopoly
but I mean that's
that's a nice
that's a nice
premium right there
yeah 1.5
trillion I mean
are we talking about open AI or what
SpaceX is a headline out right now Yeah, $1.5 trillion, I mean. Are we talking about OpenAI or what?
Yeah, SpaceX is a headline out right now.
IPO allegedly may be coming $1.5 trillion valuation in 2026. My God, let's be real, dude.
At least with OpenAI, you can reach all consumers.
It doesn't really make sense.
I will say, did you hear how much revenue that uh spacex brought in this year
brother their revenue doesn't matter because their gross margins are probably 25 at most
so i mean it just doesn't matter i don't know what's the what's the gross margin on starlink
like 100 times sales for a software company is still unpalatable but much more
palatable because they have 70 gross margins it's just not the same ball game
yeah i don't know man um like open ai going at 1 trillion whatever it is like first off i i don't
get that either because it's an llm and eventually there's so many competing ones that I don't see it. But, you know, you're at least scalable.
I don't get, yeah, 1.5 trillion to be like one of the top five largest companies.
It doesn't make sense.
To put it in perspective, Palantir, 81% gross margins, trading 100 times this year's sales and 50 times next year's sales.
Well, 46.4 so
there's sort of your benchmark for high valuation company
i mean i'm not saying 1.5 trillion is the thing, but I don't know what the price is for SpaceX,
but this is definitely a company that I would be watching.
Yeah, I mean, market leaders at the top of bull cycles
are really, really just like,
it's hard to wrap your mind around it.
It doesn't feel like inning one energy.
Fair enough.
It doesn't feel like any one energy?
Inning one energy inning one energy
i guess in the first inning like of an oh oh i see what you're saying yeah yeah yeah i agree
with that yeah um yeah it gives off bottom of the ninth energy honestly um
yeah i don't know i was gonna going to say something about it, but it's just,
it is what it is. Sign of the times, crazy valuations, you know, companies that are going
to change the world that have these like insane market leading valuations. I mean,
look, if anyone deserves a monopoly style valuation, it is SpaceX, but it's harder to
wrap your mind around like the profitability of the business and keep, keep in mind, like,
again, I'm a big Elon defender. I'm a huge fan of of the business and keep, keep in mind, like, again,
I'm a big Elon defender.
I'm a huge fan of Elon and all his companies,
but I'm,
you know,
I'll be critical where it's appropriate.
SpaceX is,
is not an ROI focused engine.
SpaceX is trying to go to Mars.
It's not a profitable venture.
What are you going to do?
You're going to go to Mars and like start mining gold and send it back to
America.
Like that's, I don't think that that's the plan is that is that anything is there anything about Mars in their actual like yeah oh no is
there a mission statement yeah the whole point of the company is to go to Mars
like that's like to do what there's nothing there yeah build a colony put a
flag up there you know oh my god they have dinner. I don't know. Oh, my God, dude.
They are going to go.
Or they're going to try to go.
I'm not saying they're going to go because no one's done it.
But they're going to try to go.
I mean, we've landed a rover on there, so we know how to get there.
Yeah, but where is the money in that?
What do you do there?
That's what I'm saying.
There's no ROI.
Dude, the soil is poisonous, bro.
It's uniquely a company that is a monopoly and doesn't care about the immediate ROI like
Starlink is a vehicle that is funding their Mars ambitions that's what Starlink is there are no
Mars ambitions it's a dead planet that makes no sense dude they want to go and I spent like four
years of my life studying Mars there's nothing there it just doesn't no sense. Dude, they want to go. I spent like four years of my life studying Mars.
There's nothing there.
It just doesn't make sense.
Tell that to Elon Musk, I guess.
The guy's really smart, but maybe he's...
I don't know. Maybe he should lay off the drugs.
He's a little crazy,
a little smart. Most of these
super geniuses are. He's a little off
the rails, but I mean,
it is Elon Musk. and if anyone can go there
i think it's him but to the point of that whether or not you believe they're going to go the point
is is that that is not a money-making mission that is a money-eating mission that's a money-burning
mission they're going to burn billions of dollars trying to put optimist robots and Tesla Cybertrucks on Mars.
They're going to burn billions and billions of dollars.
The first 10 attempts will probably be unsuccessful.
We have to think about that.
So yeah, it's not an investment that the typical investor should be looking at.
It's an investment that people who are dreamers about interstellar space,
I'm sure that's where most of the investment comes from.
I mean, Ron Barron is one of Elon's oldest supporters
and a big investor in Tesla.
He talked about this.
He was like, dude, everything in my book is about ROI.
He's like, I want something that's not about ROI.
And I'm like, all right, I guess.
But it's just really hard to get to that point
because every other company Elon's ever created
or been involved in from PayPal to OpenAI to SpaceX to Tesla,
Elon was a founding member at all these companies.
And the difference between them and this company is that all of those companies had very, very compelling products that could be sold at scale.
And SpaceX is not one of those companies.
SpaceX's products can't really be sold at scale outside of Starlink and the ones
that can, that they're spending all their money on, the Raptor engines and Starship are built for a
purpose that has no return on investment, none. In fact, it just requires more investment, which
is going over there and starting to build a civilization on another planet. Like there's
just, it's, it's a, it's a a it's a company for dreamers really not for investors
is what how i would describe spacex there's a stock that i've talked about a lot this abbx which
is the biotech buyout candidate do they just keep slamming the $180 and $190 calls for next week? The stock's at $120.
And there's been, obviously, this has been a top buyout candidate. And a lot of these premiums
we've seen are 100% over the trading prices. And it is one of the best biotech assets, probably.
best biotech assets probably but i think next week i mean it's like millions of dollars of
premium in this thing it's just insane i i mean i i guess their earnings are on monday so people
are just assuming the announcement comes on monday it's crazy I am
this SpaceX thing is also interesting
because in the past they were talking about the Starlink IPO
as a part of it
and this is a little bit
I don't know I'd expect a little bit of an Elon story
coming up soon
I do wonder what IPOs will be coming in the next
year let me look at the markets and see if there's anything interesting on here
um this is just this year
all right not interesting there are a couple earnings coming up after the close again i was
saying earlier game stop they probably still won't have an earnings call avav aerovironment
we'll see how that one ends up going a little interesting there casey general store braze
and that's really it see sam solid coming back up here as well i also also saw a headline around Eli Lilly building a $6 billion manufacturing
facility to help make their upcoming obesity pill in Alabama.
Imagine Stockton really moves. We've got about five minutes left in the day as well.
What's up, Sam?
okay not hearing sam solid there
market on clothes was
looks like pretty big to the buy side actually unless i'm reading that wrong
well i'm excited to see what praise does looks like they got a little bit of volume lately i
mean it's a name i've traded a lot but it's a piece of crap stock i don't know what it does
but what does it do like it's like marketing software specifically like customer retention
so like if you have like an app or something or like user base then you can
easily track like all your email marketing or like in-app messaging or you know things like
that push notifications you could do all that through the app it's a good stock it's a good
it's a good like it's actually really cheap and today it's trading at two times volume and it's
green on the day and the chart looks good and And I'm just looking at this like, damn, maybe this is going to rip after earnings.
It's been consolidating right at the 200 day coming from below it.
But I hate this stock, so I just don't want to touch it.
But maybe this is the time.
Who knows?
This is one that goes up or down 15-20% on these earnings.
Personally, I don't like that kind of risk-reward.
What happened in November 1st
when this thing fell from almost $11
down to...
Jesus, $420.
Wait, what are we talking about?
Blaze?
No, no. Braze.
I thought you were talking about Blaze.
Backblaze. Okay, gotcha.
It's funny. I know someone who works you were talking about Blaze. Backblaze. Okay, gotcha. It's funny.
I know someone who works there, actually.
Blaze.
Pizza?
Oh, gosh.
Blaze Pizza's pretty good.
Don't count it out.
People give it a bad name.
Bro, it's not Blaze Pizza, bro.
Oh, my God.
I don't know some pizza, man.
They got some good tools in there.
Bro, Evan, you are in New York City.
That is a crime to say that.
No, listen, listen, listen, listen.
That is a fucking crime, dude.
You should be arrested for that, dude. No, no, no. Listen, listen, listen. That is a fucking crime, dude. You should be arrested for that, dude.
No, no, no.
Would I ever get...
Would I ever get...
He lives in New York City.
New York City, the greatest pizza on Earth.
Actually, Long Island does have better pizza than New York City.
I will say that.
He says the guy who likes Blaze Pizza.
No, Blaze is your word, bro.
For non-New York pizza, Blaze Pizza is actually pretty solid when we're going out there.
Half the stuff sucks.
This is criminal.
Do you know what's the worst thing ever?
Einstein bagels? That sucks.
What is that? I'm doing this.
New York bagels are really good.
LA probably...
Blaze pizza is good out here.
LA does not have good pizza.
No, it's not, bro. There's so much good pizza in LA now.
That's such a bad statement. All over. I'm not going to dox myself, but all over. No, it's not, bro. There's so much good pizza in LA now. That's such a bad statement.
Dude, all over.
I'm not going to dox myself, but all over.
You got to look harder, bro.
Okay, I'm not saying that Blaze Pizza is the best pizza.
I'm just saying the bars sit pretty low out here.
Dude, saying that Evan eats Blaze in New York is like me saying that I eat at a popcorn steakhouse in Dallas.
I would not eat it in New York, but when I went to school in Ohio, I definitely had Blaze Pizza.
Okay, all right.
Now it's a little bit better of an opinion, but still, it's a bad take.
But I'll let you live.
It's okay.
This guy was ready to jump down my throat.
I'm looking into this great stuff because, honestly, it looks kind of similar vibes to
some of the stuff that I've seen uh happening in other places and i
shocked that this is a 180 million dollar business revenue business last quarter fair enough braze
yeah good for them oh blaze no braze braze dude brz i'm back to braze i'm back to braze this is a
come back to braids this is a this is a dude i let me tell you customers it never made sense to
me i understand it's like in the sass you know narrative overhang because the ai stuff is bearish
for some reason but i don't get it like we're gonna build this should do i'm gonna build this
yeah no you're not you're just not gonna do it it just doesn't make sense to me like it is a good
business and they keep growing like 20 plus top line they're inflecting to profitability
they have like this they made an acquisition to get more like ai agent like um capabilities in
their product i don't know they're like 500 mil cash i mean there's no debt it's just this it
never made sense to me why it's not a $50 stock. And watch it, you
know, we're gonna get the clothes and it's probably gonna go to 40 bucks. It's gonna
make sense. Yeah, but like, every time I trade it every time I own it, it goes to 25. So
I'm just out of the stock, dude, I don't care. So then I'll tell you what, just, just buy
it or put a living order in or something. And if it goes through it goes through.
Brother, we have one minute till the earnings.
I don't think you understand how this is going to...
Because I already know that if this thing goes up,
you're going to feel regret.
Give it a week.
Leverage shares will give us the 2x ETF.
I probably should have taken some calls.
Token mount.
But who cares?
I just don't care.
Market didn't disclose right there.
We do have a couple of these earnings
coming up. I didn't see Troy coming out here.
You should have
GameStop right now,
but it's probably going to be $405.
I can't
believe... One of my close friends
still has his GameStop shares.
And my cousin.
They're like, yeah, it's going to be, man, any day now.
I'm like, dude, lay down the pipe, bro.
See, look.
BMNR, I get it.
Holding is the future.
But GameStop, I just don't see how it grows.
I just slipped that in there.
I don't that in there.
I don't get it either.
Honestly, I was able to wrap my head around.
Cults are a crazy thing.
Cults are a crazy thing.
And they exist in all walks of life and including the market.
And people just buy in and nothing can shake their confidence if they're enough of a cult member.
And this just happens with so many stocks.
There's guys I know that are still holding stuff from 2021. Like, you know, stuff that went down 70% in 22, and they're still waiting for it to recover. Like there's plenty
of retail traders like that. Um, and that's a really, really bad way to trade really bad.
You know, marrying these stocks that you don't understand um i mean dude
half the retail stocks again mentioned to me me and amit started this show this like lightning
round show that we're doing where we let people like pitch stocks from the audience and like
people were just like tagging stocks when he first put the post up and i was like going through the
answers and i was just like very disappointed not like from a you know a position of like wow
these are terrible picks but from a position of like a bunch of people being convinced that.
Like either pre-revenue or cash burning shitcos are like the next Tesla or something, it's just insane. People very often forget that when you find a small company that's doing a really, really exciting, cool niche thing in a big total addressable market, nine out of 10 times they will be displaced by a larger player doing the same thing.
Nine out of 10 times.
And the very, very rare frequency with which small and mid caps actually penetrate those industries, it's extremely hard to find those names. The chances you pick 10 names that
you think are going to do that, maybe one or two will do it or even have a chance of doing it.
It's part of why I prefer mid caps, which have already proven market penetration.
They've already proven they can do multiple billions of dollars in revenue. That's a,
you know, a rung above the pack when it comes to these speculative companies.
You sort of, you know,
de-risk the first five years of the story, the penetration side of the story, which is the
hardest execution wise. You de-risk that with mid-caps is why I prefer them. But yeah, there's
a lot of misplaced confidence in small cap meme stocks by retail traders who are like convinced
that if they hold it long enough
that this great squeeze will happen
or this crazy event will happen
or they'll get a contract with Anduril or SpaceX
or somebody and the stock will triple.
That's just called holding and hoping.
And it's not a strategy.
What I said earlier was I wouldn't be surprised
if a lot of these pre-revenue companies,
the highest beta ones, whatever the shit goes, however you want to name them, have seen their highs for the cycle.
Yeah, I agree with that.
I said that in middle of October.
I was like, a lot of these names have seen their highs for the year, and I agree with that.
They're not going to take them back into the end of the year.
Even if we get a raging Santa Claus rally, I don't think there's going to be a full recovery in all those names.
a raging Santa Claus rally.
I don't think there's going to be a full recovery and all those names.
I'm sorry.
I'm going to bump this one post on the,
in the nest that I posted once when I was in here,
as I posted it,
you said mid October.
So it reminded me,
it was like the thread that I made on October 13th.
And it starts with like a chart of monthly chart of Magnite in 21 and what
it basically did for the next few years. And then I spent the rest of the thread, just, just go
through it. And then look at like all these stocks, like Oclo 171, look at these charts, dude. And
I was basically like, yeah, that that's probably going to happen to a lot of these names. Like,
dude, I don't know what RGTI is at now, but it was at 55 that day.
Of course, I didn't short it.
I don't want to short a bubble, but it was not that surprising to me
to see most of these things now cut in half, basically.
Did you get any shit about it?
I don't recall, actually.
I don't recall, actually.
I don't know. Probably, dude.
I probably got tagged with that.
Because people don't like to hear when their favorite stock just made its high.
That's why.
By the way, GameStop is out,
and the bag holders are now bigger bag holders.
Excellent.
Not by that much, though.
Revenue was $21 million,
but I saw expectations of, like,
I don't know, like nine-something,
so it's quite the big miss,
but stuck it down.
Logical.
I hope you didn't take those calls,
because Breeze is down 5%.
There we go.
I told you.
Every time that thing disappoints, dude.
It's just not worth it.
Watch it rip back up to $40 now.
I mean, if it's any consolation,
that's basically where it traded at the other day.
But it looks like a healthy rejection of the 200-day moving average right there.
Team stop around 22.
Interesting.
Game stop down.
I got to text a couple of people.
Let them know.
Oh, man.
It's so messed up.
Oh, man, dude.
They're going to get them next quarter bro don't don't
worry man just keep holding those shares brother the shorts still haven't covered dude
mo ass we've printed 9 000 million more shares but don't worry they're coming
i saw which ones i think gamestop has done than AMC, correct? I saw AMC was very cheap.
Like single digits, I believe.
Braves just went green.
There you go.
But I'd be probably still in the right place.
The funny thing about that is I actually think at some point there will be a thesis for AMC.
I actually didn't disagree.
That's the one easier to get behind.
I think they'll be bought out.
I think there's a high chance they'll be bought out by either Netflix or Warner Brothers.
That kind of makes sense.
What about IMAX?
IMAX is actually a great fucking company.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking.
Great company.
IMAX is so overlooked as a company.
I don't know if you guys have seen how well that stock's done this past week, but it's done superb.
Wow.
That's a crazy chart.
Yeah, they're turning it into a very high margin revenue business because they're going to Netflix and they're securing these exclusive theatrical releases.
And those are big money for IMAX, for distribution rights and for display rights. Those are big money for imax for distribution rights and for display rights those
are big money and so imax is probably the best theater related stock in the world in my opinion
if you're gonna if you really want exposure to like the movie industry imax is probably the best
one genuinely it's a pretty reasonable valuation too you'll look at like break down the numbers
and the growth it's a pretty reasonable valuation imax is a hell of a stock but
yeah to the amc thing is i actually think one day they will be bought out.
I don't know when that's going to happen, but at some point that'll set itself up.
I'm not going to lie to you guys.
I think Braze is a buy.
I think they just accelerated top line growth.
It went from down 5% to up 10%.
Yeah, I just looked at it.
They just literally, yeah, that 10%. Yeah, I just looked at it. They just literally...
Yeah, that's a buy, I think.
I said it last time with Rubric, and I was right.
When you accelerate top-line growth,
that means this thing is not going to sell off.
This is not going to sell off.
Wow.
Yeah, Rubric is up...
How much is it up from its earnings lows?
It's up 30%.
What's it at right now?
Rubrik's at 91.
Braze, it looks like they missed on EPS, but only by a cent.
Revenue was $190 million.
Okay, Braze.
And what did they report last quarter?
Last quarter.
So it's in line with last quarter.
Wait, nope, that's actually no.
Never mind, I'm sorry.
Earnings have just updated quickly.
So it's up from 180 million last quarter.
Yeah, it's decent growth.
AVAV numbers are out.
Looks like 44 cents versus 79 expected.
A miss with 44%.
Stock's getting pounded.
Pounded? Here we go, let's see.
What is that, 7%? 44%. Stock's getting pounded. Pounded? Here we go. Let's see. What happens with these high multiple...
This is what happens when you're
trading on an EV
70 times and a
P of 60.
Forward P of 60. Current P of 80.
Trailing P
of 104.
Ooh, GE
Vernova just gave out an updated outlook.
I know that's actually an interesting name.
Is it moving? GE Vernova
up 4% in after hours.
3.5. We round up in America, sir.
That stock does not
go down. Yeah, they don't lose.
Good lord.
I still remember seeing this thing at 200 bucks.
GEV and Talent Energy
just keep beating earnings every report and just going up.
When I go to bed and dream about my Honeywell shares, I see all the GE breakup.
We should have all just went long GV at the beginning of $24 at $150 and just close our eyes.
Dude, when these Honeywell spin-outs come out, you should at least take a look into them.
I have no idea how they will be, but...
I'll look into it. I'm just not interested
in the conglomerate. I agree.
It's fair.
The business is too diversified to get any traction.
So when
they split up, I'll look at the segments
and make a decision then. But I just don't have
a desire to own large caps.
I just don't have a desire to own large caps. Like, I don't,
I just don't.
I mean,
I own some. Oh,
wow,
it's $170 billion market cap.
I didn't even realize that.
GE itself
is pretty big as well.
A couple large companies
coming out of that.
A lot of value was unlocked.
GE Vernova at 4% now.
Maybe I should have waited
for the second.
What else?
The Wolf account.
Still rounding up.
Listen, can I be honest with you?
The Wolf account.
Bangor posted it.
10 out of 10.
Cracker Barrel reported earnings.
There you go.
Great account to follow.
Let me tell you.
Cracker Barrel was in bad numbers, actually.
$797 million in revenue while she was expecting 853.
I have never had Cracker Barrel before.
What?
I've had them.
They're okay.
I don't know.
If you've gone to a classic small-town Cracker Barrel,
it could be pretty banging.
Yeah, I'm sure it's good yeah I love myself I love I basically I mean like fried chicken and so there's stuff there's
certain things I do and don't like games I will say GameStop the earnings a lot
of people were watching it I'm looking at just how the the poster did on
reviews wise it's not reality but people are watching that one. Fractor Barrel
down 10%. GVRNRO
was up a little. We're looking
on Braze.
I am intrigued by the company concept. I don't
necessarily want to buy the stock, but I am intrigued by the
company on Braze.
Braze is a very cheap stock.
I bought some right now. There we go. Interesting.
Golo.
Oh, I haven't looked at the chart. Braze is a very cheap stock. I bought some right now. There we go. Interesting. YOLO. It's going to be 40 bucks.
Oh, I haven't looked.
I didn't look at the chart.
Braze is going to 50.
IPO.
I was thinking this in my head when we're talking about SpaceX.
Look.
I like a good IPO down 50%.
Here's the thing.
Just go look at any software stock right now.
And I talked to Shai about this, and he made me realize which stocks end up catching the bids and which ones don't. And it's, it's not enough to be cheap for you to
get a premium multiple. You have to show acceleration of growth and that's what they just did.
So I'm in exactly if you're pre-revenues, I'm sorry, if you're, if you're not profitable either,
but being profitable and accelerating growth, whew.
Yeah, this thing should not be trading at like three or four times sales or whatever it is.
I do wonder what their mode is.
But I mean, I just think it's a good business.
Yeah, fair.
That was actually one of the comps that I made with Zeta.
And it was actually trading pretty cheap i didn't
obviously i could not consider the earnings when i made the when i made the graph last saturday
but what's their free cash flow right now what's their margin i think it's very low they're barely
profitable but i think it's an inflection because they went from cash burning to you know flattish
and where did they grow at what was their rate rate? Get right. Get Amp up here.
He's waving his hand like a madman over there.
I had Braze at 5% free cash flow margins,
21% forward growth.
And what did they just come in at?
Wait, what margins?
Oh, I have on...
When I did the comps on Saturday,
I had 5% free cash flow margin for Braze, and I had 21% forward revenue growth.
Do they guide for next year?
I'm looking.
I'm also seeing Guggenheim with a $300 price target on Amazon.
Financial outlook.
I don't know lost your highest non non-gap operating income for this year
is gonna be at like non-gap net income is at 47 million but that's for this year all right
oh because this is um q3 i, wow. Look at that.
26% growth.
For Braze, you mean?
Yeah.
I'm looking at Braze right now.
Yeah, Braze is solid, bro.
I mean, I've been looking at this company for so long.
Wow.
Free cash flow is 17.8.
Is it 17.8%?
So it's a real 40?
Sorry, 17.8 million.
I was about to say, Jesus. Their margin was 9.8%? So it's a rule of 40? Sorry, 17.8 million. I was about to say, Jesus.
Their margin is 9.3%.
So I had their comp at 5.
So 9.3, wow.
Okay, so 9.3, they grew at 26%.
Well, it's not rule of 40, but...
It's damn close.
I know, it's close,
considering how early in the stages it is.
This is actually pretty interesting.
MasterCard share buyback.
Okay.
Guidance for fiscal year
2026 is
731.
So where
were they last year?
$14 billion, Evan, on the share buyback for MasterCard.
Breeze, breeze, breeze, breeze, breeze.
so 2025 their revenue is 593 they come in at seven
731. sorry honestly low-key i kind of forgot i was hosting uh em how are you doing sir yeah no i'm
doing great you're doing you're doing a really good job, Evan. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir.
MasterCard announces a $14 billion share buyback plan.
And quarterly dividend increase.
Nice. There you go.
I was trying to tell you so you could get it out.
Yeah, the stock moved up just a little bit here. It's up about 0.7.
There we go.
I was talking about my food for the later, and I got really psyched into that.
Maybe we're going to have meatloaf,
and I really didn't want that,
so I was digesting over towards Bolognese,
so it was important.
Okay.
MasterCard up 0.7% in after hours.
Interesting.
Some decent moves.
Some decent moves.
BM&R had a day.
How was the technical setup looking?
BMNR did not have a good day.
They had an amazing day.
Wonderful day, but I'm still down.
I'm only down a little bit.
10%.
No, let's not talk about that.
We don't need to talk about that.
We don't need to talk about that.
Emp, what's the technical take on BMNR?
Backtested or rejected 39.70 previous level.
Did you
short? Probably short
right here.
MSTR and Bitcoin.
It all looks like a big
fat short to me.
You're saying bad
FOMC tomorrow.
Well, yeah.
Probably.
Very hawkish is my thought.
And I think that's the consensus.
Yeah, pretty low volume.
Pretty low volume pop up on a lot of stuff going into this.
As logical brings up the point.
What?
If the consensus is hawkish, just saying.
No, that going into it.
I mean, that's not like the general consensus. The consensus is hawkish, just saying, no, that going into it. I mean, that's not like the general consensus.
The consensus is hawkish.
When I say the consensus, I mean like a few people following Twitter.
A lot of people are saying it.
More people than you want to say it.
But here's the thing.
The market as a whole, everyone's really bullish right now.
Yeah.
What I would say is i feel like
it is it here's why i don't think it's empirical when i look at the cme fed watch tool which is i don't know what you want to call it data but it is people going into it it's signaling no more rate
cuts under powell after this one so to me it's kind of like the market is feeling in it's a it's a
25 basis point cut and a hold a 25 basis point cut and then a little like
a hawkish cut whatever we remember i don't know if we ever had that uh on the or if it was like a
hawkish tpi print or something the jp morgan thing but i think the market's priced in for a putt and
then that's it for december over december of last year yeah so i don know. I think went down a thousand points.
We're probably going to get a hawks Powell.
There's a 50% chance rates are stagnant through the April meeting.
Yeah, the next cut's not being priced in until June.
And for the record, April is Powell's last meeting.
June is the first meeting with the new Fed chair.
Then they should start pricing in four cuts for that June meeting.
Right?
Well, they're only priced in two rate cuts for after that.
So only two rate cuts in 2026 is what's being priced in from the CMU FedWatch tool at this point in time.
Now, we've talked about this a little bit, like the laying duck Fed.
I know that's the terminology.
Sorry, Quip.
Yeah.
I just want to say,
if everyone is saying there's only two cuts for next year,
there are no cuts until June.
Sorry, I think someone is echoing
or has their mic on or something.
It's a little distracting.
But if you're telling me that there's no cuts till April or June
and there's two cuts just for next year,
how is that not consensus that this is a hawkish cut tomorrow?
That is already...
That's what that's saying.
Actually, there's more than a 50% chance
that we're getting at least two cuts next year.
That's assuming we're getting one tomorrow.
You guys shouldn't be thinking about that far out though.
Rate cut odds can change so fast.
We went from no cut this
meeting to a cut this meeting in like two weeks.
But that's exactly
my point. We also went from a cut to a
no cut in two weeks before that.
No, but what I'm saying is
this pendulum has swung the other way, which is saying
no cuts for the next year, you know what I mean?
Or very little cuts.
Yeah, I mean...
The CME FedWatch
tool is saying really no cuts until
April, and so that's, I think,
potentially a concern.
So how much more bearish can it get on their cut
positioning is what I'm trying to say?
Well, the further you get or closer you get to May, you know, the less what the Fed is doing is going to matter, the current Fed.
You know, here's the thing that really gets me.
You know, like, first of all, you know, the market doesn't need rate cuts to go higher.
Like we've seen that, you know, the S&P is rate cuts to go higher. We've seen that.
The S&P is up 73% in the last three years.
When did we start cutting rates?
Just recently.
And it's also, it's not the Fed that controls the rates that matter to the market, right?
The 10-year is the benchmark for borrowing costs.
It's the benchmark for mortgages, most businesses, a lot of government debt.
So, I mean, pay attention to what the 10-year is doing.
If we get anything like this on last year.
The bond market is saying, do not cut rates.
The 10-year has been, yeah, it's been straight up the last week or two.
It's the bond market that's going to control this and will control it.
And, you know, I think there's some risk here that, you know, there's a lack of confidence in Hassett or whoever Trump's appointee is going to be, you know, to control inflation long term and manage, you know, fiscal stability.
These are the... If we can get, if the long end of the curve is the issue and we can start QE, why can't the Fed just buy long, long dated treasuries and bring down that long, long end?
But hold on.
That's not a, that's not a real solution.
They can't, that's not a real solution.
They can't buy long-term treasuries.
You can't, you can, the buying of treasuries is a very, very temporary solution to, to yield for yield curve control.
solution to yield for yield curve control. It's not a genuine yield curve control. You abate the
It's not a, it's not a genuine yield curve control.
demand for one cycle, and then the next auction, you have to re-encounter that. That doesn't work.
That does not work. And this is historically true, too. You can go back at previous attempts
to just buy your way out into yield curve control, essentially. And I'll put that in air quotes,
because it's not real yield curve control. But attempted yield curve control essentially and i'll put that in air quotes because it's not real yield curve control but attempted yield curve control by the purchase of treasuries is not a real solution
it's not it doesn't work you cannot be you cannot become the entirety of the counterparty to your
own risk you like in a in a extreme scenario if you just like take that all the way down to the
extreme you would just have the U.S. government
perpetually buying its own debt without any other external buyers. You can't have that.
The one thing we struggled with this year on the Treasury side was at first when the tariffs came
out, there was a huge retreat in foreign buyers that resolved itself into the middle of the year.
You know, that has been kind of, what's the term, exaggerated by a lot of people,
like this effect of the lack of foreign interest in treasuries. Now, the one thing that is happening
is China is offloading the reliance on US treasuries. That actually is happening
to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. Now, you need other counterparties. You need,
and we do have them.
You know, this is part of the reason why we are softening or closening up to the other South American countries outside of Venezuela and Colombia for that same reason. And the same thing we're doing that in Southeast Asia with countries like Malaysia, who we think in five or 10 years will have enough.
Flowing capital in their economies to be buyers of U.S.
treasuries. So we're trying to move the tent. That's what effective U.S. policymakers should
be doing and are doing right now, is moving the tent to say, OK, our bout with China is over,
and China has now become a superpower of their own and we need to begin to diversify away
with from them and also find other buyers in maturing economies of U.S. treasuries who can
use the stability of our debt to stabilize their own economies over time and stabilize their own
currencies over time. And we are hoping, hoping and praying that South America and Southeast Asia
will answer that call because they're the only two viable options. Now, India is a viable option, too.
The issue we're having with India is the reluctance of India to follow along with broader U.S. policy.
We have expected major buyers of U.S. Treasuries for about five decades now, since World War II,
maybe really since the 50s and 60s more so, not really right after World
War II, but since the mid-60s, late 60s, we have depended on the sale of U.S. treasuries and the
use of the U.S. dollar to enforce this sort of umbrella of American influence globally. And we
expect the owners of U.S. treasuries and the holders of U.S. dollars to follow U.S. policy.
And in some cases, we don't even really have to expect them to do it because our sanctions are powerful enough that they have to, by virtue of being holders of U.S. dollars and U.S. We're losing control of that umbrella because of our skyrocketing national debt
and our inability to sort of hold up the USA badge and just recruit buyers with ease.
That effect is diminishing for us now.
And so, yeah, it's a real concern for the United States.
But the idea that we can just backstop this by buying treasuries is it's a temporary solution.
You know, it's not going to fix what we need fixed. What we really need fixed is either
materially higher growth informed by AI and robotics. And we already have good growth,
but we need much higher growth in light of our debt load, you know, because 20 years ago,
what we thought of as a healthy economy with high growth, low unemployment,
also factored in the fact that we had very low fiscal debt or very low fiscal debt relative to GDP.
That is no longer the case. And so the calculus, if you treat the United States as a company,
which is what you should be doing if you're buying U.S. treasuries,
it's not as attractive of a company as it was 10 years ago.
Again, not by, and look, I'm an American. I think we're the best country in the world. I think
this is still the greatest part of opportunity. My entire portfolio is all American companies.
I don't want people to misunderstand this. What I'm saying though, is that 10 years ago,
ago, buying U.S. Treasuries was a no-brainer if you wanted the safest place to put your money.
buying U.S. Treasuries was a no brainer. If you wanted the safest place to put your money.
Now, we are an economy in peril like the rest of the world by virtue of our debt.
And this is the point that I was trying to make as well. A lot of this is confidence, right?
So people have to have confidence in the U.S.'s ability to manage fiscal stability. And I don't think that there's necessarily a lot
of confidence in Trump himself in being able to do that. So this is why I'm worried that the
bond market takes aversion to a HACET or something like this. And you see those long rates firm up even more. Then I think what you'll see is Trump putting pressure on
the Fed to take on, to your point logical, things like mortgage-backed securities
onto their balance sheet, which there's precedent for, to drive these MBS spreads down lower again
so that he can achieve his affordability mandates and appease as much of the population as possible going into
the midterms. That's what I think is potentially at risk here and potentially at play here.
Guys, you guys are very smart on this matter, and I appreciate those comments.
All you've left me with is it's a melt-up, then a meltdown. That's what I'm getting from this.
You got to fuel growth, and that's what they've been
saying in all the commentary and i think that's probably why stock talk your position the way you
are i don't think and i i hear godfather's comments that the debt is a real issue i think
we all know that um but it doesn't it seems like something they're going to continue to kick down
the road at least for the time being so So that means that they're going to,
and you, you know, StockTalk, basically you said the only way out of this right now is more growth.
They've been signaling that in their commentary. It seems like it's the only way out. So I would
just expect that you need to own assets in the next phase of whatever this is. Eventually the
chickens come home to roost, but I don't think it's in the immediate term. Deficit spending, lower US dollar, increase.
What's going to spur growth more than anything else?
Lowering mortgage rates across the board.
Yes, all the other initiatives, onshoring and AI dominance, all that's great.
But the one thing that touches more households than anything else on a dollar basis is housing
costs.
And there aren't a lot of levers to pull in terms of affordability.
You can only build so much affordable housing on federal land, all the rest of it.
You got to do it on the fiscal side of things.
And that's what I think is going to be interesting.
And I do think there's going to be an incredible trade there
in housing at some point
but right now I would actually be short these names
because I think you're going to see a backup
in the 10 year post tomorrow
and all these names are going to sell off
so that's my short term thesis anyway
God damn
I guess no Santa Claus rally then? short-term thesis anyway. Goddamn.
I guess no Santa Claus rally then?
Geez, I know I should have threw away this hat.
No, no, no, no.
You missed me earlier.
It's a short-term call.
I'm like, you hold off your buying
until Christmas Eve
and then you buy there, right?
Santa Claus rally is the last five
and the first two trading sessions
of the year,
which overlap also with this,
you know, January effect,
which I actually looked deep into this over the last seven years.
The last two years has been more and more muted.
Perhaps people are arbing it more.
But in any event, there's your Santa Claus rally.
Just don't get excited and don't jump too soon.
Well, I hear that.
I was just messing around.
I cleared my trading book,
my shorts and trading book last Friday, put on some stuff today, but I'm probably going to get
stopped out on it. But, you know, I mean, trying to just consult a portfolio. I mean, I,
I held service now for quite a long time. And it really is against my methodology that I've
adjusted recently to continue to hold this stock.
It just does not look good on the chart at all. And you would think that after their last earnings
that they would be near all time highs, but apparently not. And especially a company that's
doing, I think it was a nine to one split. It just did not react well to it at all,
below all the moving average, except for the 20 day, of course. But yeah, I ended up cutting in. I'm
just trying to just consolidate the portfolio at this point. I'm not looking to open anything
drastic. And there are some good setups in the market right now, but it's just, I don't know,
the market's obviously going to wait and see until tomorrow. I'd rather just wait to make any major
moves in the portfolio. But hey, I mean, if tomorrow does it come up, like if tomorrow is a sell, then I'll
probably look for the retest or the backtest of the 20-day moving average on SPY, which
is 674 to initiate some short-term trades.
I mean, until then, it has just been a monster rally in the last couple of weeks.
I don't think now is the time to be like
greedy trying to press hard on anything but you know i know there's probably people disagree with
that you don't need to think about it like what you what you need to see right now is a recapture
of the highs which we failed to do right yeah you had i mean two sessions ago you had an attempt we
came into what 6 688.39.
Highs are 689.70.
You have to take those out.
You cannot get a failure to retake the highs.
That's bearish.
And it will send us down probably lower than the 21 EMA.
So what you would like.
EMAs haven't even caught up either.
Yeah, they haven't caught up.
Yeah.
The what?
The EMAs haven't caught up.
Like the 21 EMA.
Of EMA, okay.
The 21 ema is
670 677 we're shredding 683 yeah well we haven't touched the nine sock talk in like two weeks like
ever since the recovery big day up like yeah tuesday yeah two weeks ago tuesday obviously
there's a holiday in there but it's just been extended for a week and a half right now
consolidating.
Yeah, I mean, an ideal scenario for bulls would be like,
maybe you come back to tomorrow on an initial bearish reaction,
kiss the nine, and then bounce.
But, I mean, that's the perfect ideal scenario.
I'm not sure that that's exactly what's going to happen.
You need to see a reclaim of the highs to really get bullish energy going into next year.
And, you know, the way the year ends matters a lot for the following year.
And like Jeff talks about that a lot, but there's a lot of historical precedent for that.
So you want to see a strong finish to the year if you're a bull.
So there's a lot of things to keep an eye on but i i wouldn't say that
like any of the things that we talked about our immediate concerns for the market um
the market overall the structure still looks good like i'm just flipping through the spy weekly monthly chart like overall it looks good like yeah maybe we're we're in for some more chop but
i wouldn't bet on a complete breakdown yet. Generally, when you have reclaims
of the 50-day this quickly, following a correction, there's generally not a deeper correction.
Now, there are exceptions to that. The most recent exception to that being
the beginning of the 2022 bear market, where we did fall below the 50-day, then reclaim the 50-day quickly, then fell back below and
then started the 22 bear market.
So let's hope it's not a scenario like that.
But those are rare.
Recaptures this quickly and then forfeits again are rare.
So you do not want to see that going into the end of the year here.
into the end of the year here.
So, yeah.
So, yeah.
That's what you should be watching for.
Reclaim of the highs on the S&P 500.
That's what really matters here.
I mean, do any of us really think that,
I don't know,
I'm going to stay in the camp
and obviously this is speculating
and I can change my mind
if the price section changes,
but as of now,
yeah, I think the lows of this correction are in
stocks look good a lot of individual for how long though no this is i mean that this is not the
start of a bear market i mean who knows i don't think anybody's making that claim though right
no but you have to though it's one or the other you don't you know what i mean i
forget how yeah i forget how this application works sometimes but no it's i mean i i just
wonder for how long when you say because i mean what five five to five and a half percent correction
from the highs i think we could easily take out those lists you don't you you don't usually i'm
just saying statistically speaking you don't usually get two ten percent pullbacks in a given year you don't usually it's very rare and you know you get
three five percent pullbacks which we just got so don't forget all the sugar coming investors ways
in q1 with uh you know tax relief and all this one big beautiful bill stuff i i just you know like i was i was very bearish at
one point but um i think the recovery you you know you look at the smp chart it looks like a
failed breakdown which is to me pretty bullish yeah for now it looks like a failed breakdown
as long as you don't fail at the highs for it to be a failed breakdown you need to take the highs
back that's fair i mean i think getting the 50 day within five sessions though is
yeah that is encouraging i mean that's what i mean that's why i don't have any
edges on i mean we're both very long um you know i i will cut exposure if we
lose the 50 day without doubt you know and like it's oh yeah it turns back
around you take long exposure back off. But, yeah, managing it is not hard.
I think a lot of people, like a lot of retail traders,
misunderstand how much flexibility you have as a retail trader.
Like, you're not managing billions of dollars.
You don't need to scale in and out of positions.
You don't need to, like, I mean, you can still scale in and out of positions.
I mean, you don't need to, like, you don't have to, like like the way that institutions do, you know, an institution can't get out of a
position in one day if they're in a mid cap stock and they own $500 million of stock,
they can't get out. So you have that advantage. You have the flexibility as a retail trader to
just say, Oh, markets are turning around, boom, cut these five peripheral positions that I don't
give a shit about. I'll revisit them later. You have the ability to do that. So I actually think
managing into pullbacks, if you're a retail trader, it's painful because there are going about. I'll revisit them later. You have the ability to do that. So I actually think managing
into pullbacks, if you're a retail trader, it's painful because there are going to be stocks you
don't want to sell that do draw down, but it's, it's, it's easy to just say, okay, market's
turning around, take off some long exposure. I'll revisit it later. Not enough traders do that. And
you should do that when markets are breaking down, but yeah, we're obviously not there yet.
are breaking down. But yeah, we're obviously not there yet. I generally speaking, don't want to be
pessimistic going into rate cuts with a normalized economy. Market precedent for that is very bullish.
Market precedent for the times when we are headed into an easing cycle with an economy that is not
yet crumbled. It's usually good for markets.
The times where rate cuts are not good for markets
is when the economy is crumbling in the background
and the cuts are being delivered for a bad reason.
That's when markets don't perform.
But we're not really there yet.
The economy is not crumbling.
There are weak spots in the economy,
but the economy is not crumbling there are weak spots in the economy um but the economy is not crumbling and we're about to go into a new fed regime that's gonna be much more
dovish than this one so i don't know i think like i said my general buys bubble i think it's bubble
up if anything like i want it to be bearish especially after seeing that nvidia um fade you know um but
i think it's just telling you that you want to be along selective things and you know maybe some of
the buyers of nvidia think yeah okay i've you know cut my gains here i'm good and yeah rotating i don't
think i don't i think rotation is fine i mean dude likeM, I know, I know we sound super bearish on here.
I know that SMP didn't hit a new all-time high today, but IWM did.
RSP hit an all-time high.
I think it was either this week or last week.
I mean, those are good signs.
I think we should pay attention to what's going on under the hood.
You know, obviously you care about
what smp does and it's great that it's above the 50 day and that's exactly when you want to know
that the party's still on but we don't need to care about that because that's not what we own so
yeah i agree i mean you you don't like you don't need the market to be 10 20 up to making money in
the market especially if you're positioned correctly up to making money in the market,
especially if you're positioned correctly. I mean, it's just, they, it worked for a while that pre-revenue companies
worked for a while, but it has not worked since October after everything
got dumped on October 10 and you get a little bit of a bounce, which is nice
to see, you know, but the real recovery has been in those value names.
Yeah.
Can I, can I also say, sorry, just, I don't want to cut you off,
but like, you know, I think it's,
it's very important right now because you were mentioning this,
like the value names and whatnot, like, you know,
StockFox position that way. I think I am too. It's like,
if you feel that your values, your names are,
have good fundamental value. It's still a bull market right now.
It's still proven. Otherwise it's innocent until proven guilty. Yes. Can we, you know, can we have volatility tomorrow? I think
everyone and their mother knows there's going to be volatility tomorrow. I think, you know,
you see it in the volume or lack thereof in the, in, in the SMP the last two days, like everyone's
just kind of waiting for the go signal, which is fine. Um, yeah, I think, you know, for example, like, if you just own, like, super
overvalued tech stocks, which has basically been the thing to do for the last year and a half,
and you haven't learned anything from this recent pullback, which is buy reasonably valued things
that still have upside to them, or have a little bit of diversification across different industries or sectors.
Like I have a ton of names in biotechs and healthcare and, you know, rate cut or not,
these bios are getting bought.
And, you know, rate cuts or not,
you know, these large cap healthcare names
are going to do business and do revenues, et cetera.
You know, if we think inflation is going to tick up,
which is what the 10 years telling you, then a lot of these baskets of commodities, they're probably going to do well,
too. So it's like, you know, yeah, if you just own, you know, the same five stocks,
the same 20 stocks that everybody owns, and they're extremely overvalued or they're pre-revenue,
and I would be, I would be concerned too. I would not be sleeping at night probably, but
I just think that if you're, if you're well diversified enough and you carefully select what you own,
you know,
I'm not too concerned here.
And,
you know,
I think even like Warren pies,
I don't know if you guys ever follow him on Twitter.
He's real smart.
He's a great guy.
Yeah.
He's always on the compound of friends and,
you know,
he was making a case for a year end rally.
Funny enough,
when he had that episode,
it was like literally the morning where everything like died from Nvidia so but i mean you know a week after that you know call you know
it's it's still looking like it's realistic and um you know he posted something the other day i
reshared it where he basically said like yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna find it for you guys because I think it's important let me see if I could find it where the heck is it I'll find it right
now there was one of his posts recently okay I'm just gonna have to find it specifically but yeah so basically he had a
thing that said coming off the november pullback is worth remembering five percent plus five percent
pullback plus quick recovery to new highs i guess we haven't really hit the new highs part
equals very rare to see another correction over the next quarter so yeah so and he says new highs
before mid-january puts this in play both you know
bodes well for early year momentum so 68.91 on the sbx um what did we get to on sbx so far
i know it's a little different oh no like where were the recent highs
that we got to 69 69 20 was the all-time high we're're at 68.40 right now. And what did we...
So that's the highest we've been since the recent pullback?
69.20 was the all-time high.
The highest we made it was right under 6,900.
So we were about 25 points off of the...
That's so funny because he said the magic number is 68.91.
Okay, interesting.
But either way, he posted the same thing back in may of 2024
and if you guys remember we had a run of the mill five percent pullback back in april to may um
you know on reflation narrative or whatever it was and you know he posted the exact same thing
and you know it ended up playing out i think you know, Walter Deamer also posted something today saying like, we live in a
world of probabilities.
We invest in a world of probabilities, not certainties.
So it's not like what we say is true or that it's going to happen, but it's just based
on the precedent we've seen in the market from price action.
And, you know, what typically tends tends to happen like a lot of people
degrossed their book um during this recent pullback speculation got really high right before
it um volatility spiked you know typically when you look forward from buying you know those big
ball spikes ends up being a pretty decent buying opportunity so So I don't know. I think there's just like a bunch of different bits of information
that look good.
I don't think the FOMC, which everyone is fearing,
is going to be the thing.
Like, can we be down a percent tomorrow?
Okay, yes.
Is the percent going to stop my bullish bias?
Because I don't really see something that is so kind of well telegraphed
that's going to change the course of what's going to happen.
Honestly, I would love to see that
because I think that would reset and give a backtest.
And if it holds there,
then I think you have a pretty firm base to go off of
to then try to push and target the highs again.
I think exactly that.
Yeah, like the retest of the 50-day was always on my book.
It never made sense to me.
I couldn't even believe how resilient and strong this market was when we pushed above
it and just floated.
Go ahead.
Yeah, but just let me, hold on, let me add a couple of points here.
The only thing, so the MAG-7, and there's other pockets of the market that we'll probably continue to find regardless, but the MAG-7 is so all over the board right now, and it's 35% of the S&P.
So, I mean, yeah, taking highs or taking lows, I think we could be in this range for a little bit.
That's still what I think can happen here because you have, what, three MAG-7s that are doing well right now.
You have four that
are below their 50-day moving average and that makes up you know 35 percent of the s&p so yes
other pockets of the market i think are fine and and doing fine but if those if that tug of war
still happening where one day it's google and apple and then then it's now it's still nvidia
and who knows what met is doing right now so i the 200 days still. I have two things to say to that.
What I can say is that,
one, Google continues to look really bullish.
Another, I just saw towards the end of the bell,
they sold Apple puts 275s in size.
This morning earlier,
they sold more Meta puts, 670s in the money. They've been selling
puts for the last two weeks on Meta. And selling puts, high Delta puts specifically in the money,
are far more bullish than buying calls, because it means that there's someone there to support
the bid. And I think they were doing kind of similar things with Amazon that haven't been
ongoing yet. But I think if this AI wave continues for the next year,
I don't think anyone is going to be like,
I think people forget that Amazon had probably among the best,
probably maybe the best earnings report from the mag seven this quarter.
Like maybe besides Nvidia, but Amazon was still trading.
They're still trading under the 50 day and within what 5%
of a 200 day
Microsoft within 4% of its 200 day
exactly
my point is that there's still
a lot of upside in this market
so I guess my pushback
my pushback is that
they're doing different things right now
and like that I still think
they probably meet in the middle and reset.
The ones that are high will come down and the ones that are low will make their way back to the middle.
But if 35% of the market is disagreeing and not moving together, I think it's going to create a choppy market.
That's fine.
We don't trade this by.
The rest of us buy individual stocks and smaller mid caps.
So it's fine.
But as long as they're even if they pull and you say that we stay range bound
that's not bearish that's that's perfectly fine for this market no if we continue to to bounce
like in this even if it's in this five percent range from where we put in the high and where
we put in that recent low even if we just stay in there for the next month two months i think it's
very healthy it's building a lot of value. And it's bringing the moving averages up. And ultimately, look, all I've been saying is
that I don't think that this is the beginning of the bear market. That's all I was saying.
Like, as long as it's not the beginning of the bear market, you're, well, you're not gonna have
volatility. Of course you have volatility. These things are crazy, man. Like we just rallied so
much off the lows. And I think if you were like out there and thinking about like what
positions to take, it's pretty obvious when you pull up the charts on a lot of these things,
go look at the daily charts on a lot of them. Go look at C limited, go compare that to a lot
of other stocks that pulled back and C limited just kind of did this dead cat bounce, got rejected,
did a bear flag, low volume hop. and then it just rolled back over back to the
lows, to new lows. Like that's a stock you don't want to own, you know, on that balance. I mean,
I'm not saying that it can't be a great long from here. It might actually be. But my point was that
like, there are names that are bouncing and they're showing you which ones people want to own.
And I think they did the same thing back in april um if you remember like rubric
uh robin hood like those things were what was rubric like 30 bucks like robin hood was like
30 40 bucks at the lows then like and those things just ripped from the lows so there's going to be
leaders coming out of those things and i think the market's already telling you which one those are
as long as the market holds up and i have no reason to believe it won't, I don't know.
All the signs macro-wise point to, it's going to be fine. Yes, is the 10-year going to be up?
The 10-year is telling you that inflation might be a problem again. The Trump administration is
literally telling you they need to prioritize growth over, you know,
anything else, which means that they are willing. And today has, has it comes out the new Fed chair.
And he's basically saying like the fiscal policy has room to be more stimulative. Like they're
telling you that they're going to prioritize growth. You know, when they're telling you that
I just don't know how you're going to sit around and be like, I'm going to go to cash. You just can't.
What, what's, what is the fed going to do to prioritize that growth? They just, I mean, I know they ended QT, but are you think they're going to go QE? Do you think they're going to
do stimulus? Like where's the priority on the growth side?
Well, I mean, fiscal is different from the fed, like stimulus, you know what I mean? So like,
eventually I'm sure there will be,
I mean, there's a lot of this like self non QEQE stuff
going on probably already.
So I don't know what form or shape it'll look like.
I don't know what policies they'll announce,
but it's clear, you know, that,
and I think, you know, Stock Talk was saying earlier
is that they, you you know it is a problem
right now and the only way you build out of this debt issue and you know you kind of show the rest
of the world that you're credible as a you know uh as a borrower is by and so you get demand for
your bonds is to show that you're able to pay back that debt. So that might mean that you might pay higher interest
on that debt. But if you have higher growth to offset that, then it might make sense. So
that's clearly been the shift in the administration's language lately. So yeah, I mean,
I don't know. It's just really tough for me. It was a very different administration back in February and March when they said, we're
going to literally do the biggest, you know, the most like deglobalization, you know, hawkish
possible thing that you could do.
Most like, you know, I mean, the most bearish thing you could do with the biggest tariff
since like the Great Depression.
It's a very different environment today than it was seven, eight months ago.
We still have that Supreme Court decision or whatever is coming there, which you never know.
And what if the government shuts down again in January?
I would love that, man.
I mean, did you see what happened last time?
We went up like 6%.
Yeah, I think
it's, well, yes, but
there could be different scenarios.
I don't know.
We can play the what-if game, and to your point,
to Sok Talk's point that he makes quite often
is you can play the what-if game
all the time. The market will continue to climb
the wall of worry.
We had plenty of good news to keep looking forward to. And now I'm looking going, okay, what's the next piece of good news? Is it this rate cut? And then after that, I'm like,
okay, is it, what do we have until the next like earnings season? But here's the thing though, man,
I'd agree with you if stocks were still 100 higher like they were in october but they're not a lot of individual names have
been cut in half and you're getting more accommodative language from both administration
and the fed so i think it's more just like you're setting up for a really nice year because stock
prices have reset and they are prioritizing growth and liquidity
so i don't think you need the catalyst is it's a good setup
i don't know it's gonna all change tomorrow we'll see want to see, though, is at least a retest of that 20-day moving average.
We don't have to get it, but if we do, that would be a pretty bullish setup,
and I think you guys agree with me on that one.
But it keeps going up.
I'm good with that, too.
I am good either way.
Yeah, look, I was bearish, rightfully so when it mattered but then you got a good reset in the
market and it refused to go down and i saw enough bits of information to make me feel like okay like
this market can be constructive again and you know it's healthy rotation out of things that
i thought were so stupid and made me feel like, okay, the longevity of this bull market is in question.
If these things continue to work to the upside, like things that are no revenue, if those continue to double from here, then I'll say, yeah, this market sucks.
But those things are now getting punished.
They're down 50, 60%.
Some of them are working.
I still don't believe that they'll see their highs ever again.
This is healthy rotation.
This makes me feel like it's actually become a lot healthier market
over the last month and a half.
I think we could all agree to that.
You know, shifting the conversation around a little bit,
Stock Talk, one of the big stories of the day and last night shifting the conversation around a little bit Stock talk
one of the big stories
of the day and last
night was around these Nvidia chips
getting approval to sell them to China
and then there was a story
that China might not say like
limit them or whatever, China might not even want
them and then now there's a story
about their being rerouted
around from Taiwan
where they're being made to the US to be quote unquote checked and then sent to China There's a story about their being rerouted from Taiwan,
where they're being made, to the U.S. to be quote-unquote checked and then sent to China.
What did you read on these sales?
I know on that area and those stories from today.
Obviously, I believe that happened on the Spaces yesterday,
the first part of the Nvidia story.
And stock went up. And here here we are down a little bit actually didn't even look but um yeah what's your read on the video story it's been going on um it's important for just supply
chain reasons i mean we're trying to build chips in this country and um we will be able to
i have a lot of confidence in that i have a lot of confidence in tsm arizona i mean
you know my amcor position sort of speaks to that but um
there's the semiconductor supply chain is very complicated people don't really understand like how multifaceted it is from you know all the way from chip design to fabrication
to onboarding chip design infrastructure to photo masking to packaging to repurposing the
difference between asics and other type of ai chips the difference between highly specialized tpus versus gpus like nobody really knows the distinctions between all these
things i thankfully do and i've spent like three or four years since the ai era researching all
of this stuff but there is a tremendous amount more than 70 percent of tooling and inputs that are required for semiconductor production from 5 nanometer all the way up to 3 nanometer.
I'm not even including 2 nanometer in this because that's the cutting edge.
But all the way from 5 to 3 nanometer chips, 70% of the tooling and supply chain goods come directly from Chinese soil.
Not just from Chinese companies, but from Chinese soil.
So what the United States has tried to do in these last couple of years is
choke China on the design front.
Because all the premier designers are American, right?
The two premier chip designers in the world are NVIDIA and Broadcom.
They are like the kings of the pile.
And they're both American.
And so what the United States government strategically decided to do, and this is a bipartisan effort,
was limit China's access to U.S.-designed cutting-edge chips.
And it was effective because that's the one part of the supply chain
we control. Now, the issue is, is that our ability to scale chip production is still dependent on
China. That's the problem. That's sort of the catch 22 here. We can stop them from having
access to the cutting edge chips. But in turn, you create a tumultuous supply chain relationship
between China and the US for chips broadly. That affects things like smartphone chips,
electronics chips, military chips, namely, which is really where the US concern is,
right? Aerospace and defense related chips, which are largely sourced and supplied by China.
I think like the last figure that from Morgan Stanley's report was
like 63 or 64% of all chips used in all aerospace and defense applications come from Chinese soil.
So much more than half. That's a problem. And it's not a problem that can be solved overnight.
And the United States is attempting to solve it in Arizona. Currently, it's not just TSM building in Arizona.
We have 15 different, mostly U.S., but some international companies building facilities in Arizona.
We're trying to make it sort of Taiwan part two.
But it's going to take a while.
And so, yeah, the NVIDIA deal is, I don't want China to have access to U.S. top end ships, but the NVIDIA deal is sort of a olive branch, in my view, to open up the broader semiconductor supply chain and get China to make concessions to us on things that they are restricting in turn.
If we can get China to open up rare metal supply, open up specialized tooling and production that we need, then it will be worth it to sell them H200s, I think.
It's an exchange.
I mean, you have to think about it reasonably and not just put on a completely hoorah, bald eagle American lens, which is what I want to do because I'm not a very pro-China guy.
But this is a concession that makes sense to make to open up the supply chain. And then, you know, in the same hand, we can still do what we've been
doing in Arizona, which is attempting to start a cutting edge chip fabrication process and
packaging process and continue to execute on that. So we can keep pulling the leash on the front end
of the industry while also opening up the rest of the industry
for supply, which we need.
So that's my thoughts on it.
Yeah, that is a good take.
And I do see Paul from Leverage Shares Themes
joining us up here.
Paul, how you doing?
Doing great, guys.
No better way to cap off a busy day
than to speak with you.
Yeah, I'm excited about it.
There's some good conversations here.
I know you're on both sides of this.
We got some ETS on the China side, but also on this side.
Before we do talk into that, I do want to read a quick thing.
We are going to switch over to a little bit of another segment here,
talking through some different themes on the market.
It's going to be this AI China theme, but we'll bounce around.
We are lucky to be joined with themes and Paul and helping with us and keeping all the content that we do
for free forever. But I do just want to read this out. Investors should carefully consider a fund's
investment objectives. We're going to be talking about a couple of different tickers today.
So you should know the risks, expenses, et cetera, stuff like that before investing.
A fund's prospectus, a summary prospectus contains all this information.
And you can go over to the website,
the Themes ETFs website,
which we'll have pinned up in the nest above.
Or if you go into that 11-shared-sweet account,
you can go in and find that.
Go to their websites, check out the prospectus.
All the information is there.
You guys should be able to go through
and make informed decisions.
That is really important with this stuff.
But we appreciate you for joining us, Paul.
Do you have any thoughts on that conversation
on what Stock Talk was talking about there?
I know obviously you guys have the China ETF,
the DRGN1, the China Generative AI ETF,
which obviously will be impacted by this a little bit.
And I'm also curious your take on the story
of if China will even want these chips,
or maybe the word is more if China will allow these ships to come in because I think they clearly want it.
But we appreciate you joining us up here.
I'd be curious your thoughts on the conversation.
Yeah.
So as you guys know from having me on, I talk about NVIDIA a lot.
And yesterday, I think I might have been even on with you guys, uh, in a different capacity on another channel
talking about the news had just come out and they wanted my quick take on it. And I basically just
said like, Hey, this is all fine and great. But as everybody knows, like, this is not what
Nvidia ultimately wants to happen in China, but this is like a first step. Anything that goes on between
the United States and China, especially around AI, is going to be heavy negotiations. There's
going to be a lot of back and forth. There's going to be ups and there's going to be downs.
There's going to be wins. There's going to be losses. But the two things that I would take
away from this is it's not the end result. This is additional revenue that NVIDIA could potentially
make, but it's not really anything that's going to make a big impact on their bottom line.
Because the first thing that, that, uh, like, you know, you have to understand is that NVIDIA
doesn't need to sell these chips to China in order to be successful.
And while it could be extremely more successful if they are selling their highest compute chips to China,
which is ultimately where they want to be, that would be definitely important for their bottom
line. And that would really increase their growth. So I think this is a first step to that.
And I think Trump is just
trying to do whatever he can to open up the lines of communication, start getting, you know,
Nvidia back into China, start getting them ingrained, so on and so forth. If this is all
Nvidia gets, in my opinion, Nvidia will be wildly successful. So when you saw the bump yesterday,
uh, after hours and, and NvidiaIA really started to climb, I was
like, okay, well, that's great, but I think everybody needs to chill out because this
is not going to be super meaningful to its bottom line.
I think the most important thing for NVIDIA is the fact that it's been oversold based
on what it has done organically in the markets where it's available. Meaning,
you know, it is selling and growing at an exponential pace. There is so much demand
for what they have currently in the markets that they are available. So like, I think everybody
just needs to take like a little bit of a pause. If you're along NVIDIA because you think where they are currently, what their current marketplace is, and how much demand there is for what they're offering,
I think then you have that high conviction you should be in that name.
And then on the other side, to me, this is just a starting point for ultimately getting NVIDIA
back into the marketplace in China. And I think it's Jensen
Wong's influence on the administration to say, let's not close the door. Let's keep the door
open. Let's do the things that we have to do to keep conversations moving and then ultimately get
to the end result that we want, which is to be able to market our highest compute products
in China, which will ultimately be very substantial for
overall growth and our overall business. Now that said, I also don't think that it impacts
China that much because these are inferior chips to where they need to be if they want to be
competing with the United States. So all this is fine and good, and it will serve some kind
of purpose if they are sold there, and they'll figure out what that means it could even mean just reselling them to other people
like who knows what china you know really wants from from these chips uh they still have to build
out their own infrastructure they they are still investing tons of money both from a governmental
level uh and you know from some of their largest companies inside Tencent, Alibaba.
They're investing in hyperscalers, data centers, you name it, all of the above, making their
own chips, trying to compete with the likes of NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, so on and so forth.
So they're going to take a go-it-alone stance until something substantially changes. And even if something substantially
changes, they're going to use what they can to elevate their current standing in the AI space.
And then they're going to continue to work and invest to build their own because they want to
be independent in this space. So the reason why I think it's somewhat inconsequential is because China is not going to, for the long term, rely solely on US chips.
Even if they want to buy them and get a jump start on where they are today, they're not going to solely rely on that.
All of that infrastructure is going to be needed to be built out.
be needed to be built out. So we like both themes still. I'm still very bullish on USAI,
So we like both themes still.
and USAI means a huge part of the global AI community because, let's face it, Europe and
other countries are never going to be able to get up to speed with where the US is, so they're going
to have to rely on us. So that's great for NVIDIA. That's great for Broadcom. That's great for AMD.
That's even ultimately great for names like Intel, so on and so forth. Also, it's great for Broadcom. That's great for AMD. That's even ultimately great for names like Intel,
so on and so forth. Also, it's great for the hyperscalers like Apple, Meta, Alphabet,
Microsoft, all those names are going to benefit from that as well. So we like overall the AI
movement, the AI growth in the US. But on the opposite side,
China's got to do this thing. They've got to build it. Massive investment is going there.
So we like both. And we think, again, I say this a lot, and it's not a one or the other.
Both of those spaces are going to grow substantially. And there's massive investment
in the build-out of both us ai and chinese ai i think
they complement each other very well and if you were missing one piece of the other trying to say
i want to just be with the winner i i don't think that's the right way to play it i think it's a
you know both can do very well
what are some of the like so i'm looking at the drdn etf the your guys's china generative ai etf
and obviously when i look at the u.s based ones i know most of the names baidu is the
largest holding in here so i do know that one but most of the other names in here i have
no knowledge of the type of thing that they uh do what are the general like
what are some of the largest holdings do i'd be curious in do. What are the general, like, what are some of the
large insolence do? I'd be curious in there.
Even just the general themes that
generative AI and that part of the market
in China is getting excited about right
now, if it's literally the exact same thing here,
if it's slight variations,
stuff like that.
You're on mute, Paul sorry about that because i try to eliminate uh any noise possible so sorry about that
so that yes so china wants to be a superpower in ai just like the u.s is a superpower in ai
and so they're doing all of the same things that we're doing in the US. So with this ETF, we follow an index, and that's run by BIDA China Generative AI Select Index.
So what does that mean?
The companies that are inside of this portfolio are Chinese mainland companies that are looking
to increase their prowess in AI model training
and provision.
You hear NVIDIA talking about that all the time.
You hear AMD talking about that all the time.
We are a leader in that.
I just saw Jensen Wong talk that we are six to 12 months ahead of them in that, but there's
no reason why they can't catch up if they put effort into it.
That's what a lot of these companies are doing.
They're also into generative AI application and software.
That's like the fourth or the fifth tier of the layer of AI, of what needs to happen in AI.
AI infrastructure and hardware and general AI application software.
So all of these companies are focused on those four segments of the market.
are focused on those four segments of the market.
And that's what they're building out
so that they could be self-sustainable inside of China
if they can't get access to the world's.
And when I mean the world's,
the US's intellectual capital and prowess in AI.
So that's essentially what these companies are investing in
and building out.
And yes, just for full and fair disclosure, a lot of these companies are very tough to
research, very tough to get information on. That's why we rely on a passive strategy using
the index, because we want to make sure that we know who are
the publicly traded companies inside of China that are doing this stuff.
I mean, Foxconn is another one that you may or may not know.
That's a pretty well-known name.
I believe Alibaba and Tencent are inside of this portfolio if you drill down deeper into
all the holdings.
But they are names that you would not know on a regular basis.
You're not going to see them coming over the tickers because you can't trade them on U.S.
exchanges. And what we thought was most important when building out this is that we had Chinese
originated names that you couldn't trade in the U.S. unless you had some kind of special license, special
permission, gone through all of the necessary filings, regulations, all that stuff to be
able to trade in China, which most people don't have, and put it into a U.S. listed
exchange-traded ETF that's treated just like any other exchange-traded ETF, daily liquid, on an exchange, so on and so forth.
I mean, there are some differences with this ETF. During the Chinese holiday, there was a
week-long period where none of the names were being traded because everything in China shuts
down. But we work with our market makers to provide liquidity during those times to make
sure that you could still trade the fund. But we do say to people like, hey, volume will be less, trading will be thinner, so
on and so forth.
That said, that's the nature of trading in China.
It's much different than in the US.
And you get sort of that oversight from a US-listed ETF like ours.
sort of that oversight from a US listed ETF like ours.
Yeah, no, I appreciate that.
And again, the tweet pinned up in the list above, or I might not even set this up, there
has a bunch of the tickers in there.
And like I was saying earlier, you should definitely make sure you're going to the website
and digging in and making informed decisions here.
Stock Talk, I'd like to bring it over to you.
I know you've researched a lot of different areas, and obviously you have a U.S. first
mindset in a lot of these things, but obviously we want to be buying globally competitive
companies and stuff like that.
So I'd be curious on the area that you're digging into it, that you're like, damn,
China is coming in it.
Or maybe some of the areas where you still feel like the U.S. has the full-on unlock?
I mean, I don't think the U.S. has any area unlocked.
I mean, China's going to be penetrating all these industries now.
They're, you know, they're superpowers.
So, yeah, I don't think we have sort of protective ability anywhere.
Maybe super cutting-edge chips for now but eventually china
will have those two of their own uh but maybe for a year or two we'll have a competitive advantage
there but yeah in all these areas aerospace and defense nuclear um you know ai robotics everything
they are well on their way so i wouldn't say that we have anywhere where we have a moat technologically.
Interesting. Well, what are the areas that you feel like maybe China is being the most
competitive on? I mean, obviously, these are all things that you feel are most important.
Probably robotics, because they have scale of manufacturing, is important um i mean they're beating us
on drones too so you want to group that with robotics i guess you can um big problem we have
is we just can't make things in massive quantities um like we could in the 60s and 70s and 80s and
most of the stuff we do make is highly specialized like like, you know, the SpaceX rockets and stuff like that. Like we can still manufacture with the best of them, but we do it in a highly specialized, generally lower volume format than we did decades ago.
And China does the opposite.
They make things in enormous quantity very quickly.
And especially when it comes to defense, that's a problem.
And especially when it comes to defense, that's a problem.
But even for non-defense commercial side robotics, that gives them an advantage to scale.
Such a great point that you're making there.
And Jensen Wong just made the same point today.
He said, while we're way ahead of them when it comes to chip technology, chip technology is a matter of manufacturing. Nobody does manufacturing better
than the Chinese right now. So he said, if what they have to do is organize manufacturing
to increase their level of chips in supercomputing, they'll do it. And they'll get caught up quicker
than you think they will. He also talked about the infrastructure of data centers.
He said in the United States, it takes a long time to build those data centers.
He said in China, it takes a weekend to build a hospital.
If they want to start putting their attention towards data centers and building those out,
it won't take very long for them to get caught up. So you make an excellent point about their manufacturing prowess and how so much
of this is about how they can build out that manufacturing and put it towards chip making,
and then also build out the infrastructure for the data centers and what's needed for
the architecture of AI.
And you know, what's interesting is that, I mean, the Chips Axe, all that stuff is with some bipartisan stuff that's been started from before.
So we're talking about, and some of the themes we've talked about in here are just ones,
including this infrastructure play, including, you know, this defense play, including this humanoid robotics to whatever play is all kind of playing
under this similar theme of reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S.
and the importance of it.
Yeah, and I think, like, you know, there's a saying in sports,
Wayne Gretzky, skate to where the puck is going.
But, like, the truth of the matter is it's really hard to know where the puck is going. Like, I think when you, when you take that and
move it over to investing, it's like, you know, invest where the money is going and where, you
know, there's like committed investment. And so when you think about us infrastructure, right?
So that's one, I was literally just on a call with a large advisor today. And he was telling me that,
you know, he, he loves like thematics as satellites to his core advisor today. And he was telling me that he loves thematics as satellites
to his core portfolios. And what he's worried about is missing the move. So how does he know
whether or not he's missed the move? And I'm like, well, where's the committed spend? So we talked
about AI. We know that there's committed spend from the largest companies. They're spending so
much CapEx there. That's one of the reasons why I'm so convinced that we're not at the end of a bubble in AI.
We might be building a bubble over time, but we're still far away from that bubble getting
to capacity and that bubble bursting because there's so much committed spend there.
When you think about US infrastructure, these are core components to what has to be done
what has to be done in America to get us upgraded from where we were, right? So it's all companies
in America to get us upgraded from where we were.
that are into building materials and equipment, construction, logistics, engineering services,
and it's specifically designed to build our infrastructure. In 2021, bipartisan, and how
many times do you ever hear of both sides agreeing, but there was bipartisan infrastructure law that
directed 1.2 trillion of US federal funds towards transportation, energy, climate infrastructure, all throughout the mid-20s.
And so we're still in the middle of that large spending bill.
And there's no desire to go back because with all the spending that we've done, we still have only hit a fraction of what needs to be done in this country to upgrade it.
So we have massive government spending that is taking place.
Over $400 billion in federal funding has been authorized for more infrastructure build-out.
And so when that's happening, we know that the U.S. government is not worried about its deficits,
that if they have these
projects in mind and they can put people to work and they can make the labor statistics
look better and then still build out the infrastructure, that's going to work.
And then on top of that, year to date, you've got a 21.05% return on the strategy.
That's a great place to get some diversification with growth outside of all
the core holdings that you have, which are basically driven by a handful of high-powered
tech stocks.
So when we talk about satellites and we talk about themes, that's a nice little chunk.
And it's also insulated from all the cyclical natures of investing, because again,
this is committed spend by the U S government. That's going to, you know, be spent regardless
of what happens that this is a place that they're not going to cut first. And when you look at what
some of the core holdings are again, Caterpillar, Parker Hannafin, um, Emerson electric, Deering
company, union Pacific, Norfolk sun almost sounds a little bit like a
warren buffett portfolio united rentals like things like that so super conservative companies
that are you know paramount to building out the infrastructure of america and then i i think you
mentioned you know our nato transatlantic defense etf, invest where the money is going. And so, you know,
all of these are companies that are all located inside of NATO member countries, and they are,
you know, responsible for aerospace and defense, ammunitions, drones, missile technology,
for aerospace and defense, ammunitions, drones, missile technology, so on and so forth.
So when you think about the increase in defense spending from NATO member countries that has
now been mandated, everybody has signed on and confirmed that they'll be increasing
from 2% of GDP to 5% of GDP, with the exception of Spain, right?
Every other country has committed to that.
We know where the spend is going
to be and we know that it's going to be in you know two different segments one is the u.s because
the u.s companies have the best most capable uh technology when it comes to aerospace defense
in the world and the second place is going to be within companies in those NATO
member countries that need to build up their own defense and sort of diversify away from the United
States so that they ultimately can invest in themselves, their own technology, and their own
companies. And so this is a mix, 50 plus percent in thes because that's where the best technology is and another 42 percent or
so in european countries that need to shore up their defense build their own militaries build
their own defense capabilities so on and so forth as part of the responsibility uh and commitment
to nato so again committed spending it's been confirmed uh you. You could trace where the money's going. And again, when you look
at the return stream, we know that it's going to continue, even if you say, well, an administration
could change the current commitment. So we know we got another three years. But beyond that,
this is a 10-year commitment that's been made by NATO. And the fund year to date, 44.82%, like another return stream outside of all of those names
that we hear about on a daily basis that have increased volatility, whether that's RTX,
GE Aerospace, Boeing, or on the European side, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Safran SA, Ryan Mittal. You know, the biggest and the best in aerospace and defensive munitions across both continents.
Yeah, that was a good run through there on the infrastructure one, the H-Way Highway ETF.
Again, you guys should check up and ask the above.
And if you guys want the websites now below that tweet and if you guys want to put bookmark that tweet so you guys can
find it later um but crh was one that actually just got added to the s p 500 is a name that i'm
noticing the third largest holding in uh that h way h w a y etf that was interesting
way h w a y etf that was interesting i hadn't known too much about it before
materials for the construction industry okay interesting but i think that was a uh a good
run through right there sorry i thought there's something we're gonna say something
okay no worries uh that was my bad uh stock talk though we were talking through the the
highway infrastructure there and we we've had this conversation before on like why
going through the infrastructure spend and you're a fan of this theme and you enjoy playing it um
through the grid it is the area that this is going into um
i'm trying to phrase this correctly whatever it's not going to come out but that Liz is going into.
I'm trying to phrase this correctly.
Whatever, it's not going to come up.
But I'm just curious your thoughts as you're digging into what other areas
you are finding the value in.
Because obviously, or maybe let me phrase this question.
What other areas are just not having the stocks
in your SMED cap range
that you want to invest in a theme, but there't that two to ten billion dollar stock in that area
and imagine that has kind of come up yeah i mean that just that that doesn't really come up there's
always a two to ten billion dollar stock exposed to anything you always find something in the
supply chain the supplier, somebody.
You'll find there's always a stock.
I've never had that problem, personally.
I mean, you know the themes I'm interested in, aerospace and defense,
U.S. power grid, U.S. semiconductor supply chain, nuclear energy, data centers.
Those are the themes I'm interested in.
Pretty popular themes, but the names I own obviously are not popular within those themes,
so that's kind of where I find my distinction. But, yeah, data center, aerospace and defense,
U.S. power grid, U.S. semiconductors, nuclear energy.
I tried to talk you out of uranium yesterday
in the LEU play, but you weren't budging.
Nope, I won't be able to talk about that.
I know, Paul, you guys got a uranium etf you ran uh constellation energy the biggest sticker in
that one yeah no we uh when he was talking about the energy grid and and energy and you know pine
you know supplying all these ai and hyper scale data centers with energy like right now, the way things are on the current grid,
like we're not going to be able to take care of it.
I keep mentioning Jensen, but he's been out and about talking.
He was talking about how our economy is three times the size of China,
but yet they have more energy production.
And in order for us to be able to compete with them and compete globally,
we're going to have to raise that energy production.
I think a huge part of we're going to have to raise that energy production. I think a
huge part of that is going to be nuclear. And the thing that makes nuclear go is uranium. And so
again, we've seen some pretty nice outsized returns in the uranium space up almost 50%
near to date. And we've got some really great players inside of this,
like some large names that you would know. And you mentioned Constellation Energy,
but some more traditional names like Duke Energy and PG&E Corp. But we also have some of the names
like Oclo, like people that are doing some things that are different, uh, in the space and even some smaller firms, uh, that are really making a name for themselves,
um, regarding, um, like, uh, um, portable, um, small nuclear reactors that you can like,
you know, not only build pretty quickly and efficiently, but they're portable and you
can take them from site to site.
So really interesting stuff. I think the first part of this is the acceptance of nuclear energy to drive all of this unbelievably energy necessary technology that we're building
across AI and everything else. And
then I think once it's up and running and it's got more credibility, I think you're going to see
that expand out to the power grid and nuclear is going to become, you know, a much bigger component
to what we do and our everyday energy needs because it's so efficient and because, you know,
it's getting safer and safer and safer and it's considered uh you know green so at the
end of the day we see this as a long-term play as well lots of investments being made across the
board and it's another one of those places that we you know see continue to to grow over time
uh and it's a good time to get into it and invest in it
to get into it and invest in it yeah uranium has been a very hot theme you know it also has been
extremely however the last couple days and weeks these uh silver i know we got the silver miners
etf as well um come on these in general rip roaring damn agmi is up 141 so far this year
all right fair enough yeah we've had an unbelievable run and
again you know so it's the miners are way better positioned for that like leverage type of return
especially if you're bullish on silver and if you're you know bullish on gold uh because they're
so far ahead of where they need to be as far as what the spot price is in order for them to be profitable.
And so for instance, when you talk about silver, it's finally starting to get the kind of juice that people have been waiting for for years and years and years. And now it's becoming a
momentum play. And as it becomes a momentum play, more and more people are piling in.
becomes a momentum play more and more people are piling in you know it's interesting like i i i
i liked silver and i liked gold a long time ago and you know i'm still like watching them uh move
uh but it's hard to tell where the price is going to be but i can tell you this
you know the gold and the silver miners stand to do very very very well just based on what their operating costs are,
where the price of the underlying commodity is, and what that means for the future of the miners.
And so, yeah, we're very bullish on both gold and silver miners. They've continued to outperform
and do really, really well. So, AGMI on the for us you know really has super high performance one
of the best in the categories that it's in and the same thing with army aumi for the silver miners
like really solid returns excellent ways to play a little bit of a a boosted uh performance in the
actual spot price um and we continue to be pleased and um you know watching very closely to see
if the run's going to continue
stock talk and there's you silver guy at all I know gold he likes his gold he uh
believes the world's gonna end he has his gold hidden somewhere. I do have my gold laying in a bank.
Not under your mattress?
No, no, no, no, no, no.
Not that.
That would be too risky.
But yeah, I have quite a bit of physical gold.
But yeah, just for a rainy day.
I've always been taught to own gold.
My parents taught me to own gold, so I own it.
But it's not like I don't list it as a constituency of my portfolio.
You know, like it's not a guess if you were to technically say like on a net worth basis, do I have gold exposure?
Yes.
But, yeah, I don't like ever trade it really you know trade the
vehicles for it like GLD or whatever but yeah I own physical gold silver no not
really a UMI could be one just saying not so you have to or not there but is
the themes one I'd benefit it all mine yeah benefit enough when the price gold
gold goes up just because the amount
of gold that i have so i'm chilling on that people do enjoy trading gold though i hear it quite
actively it's one of those ones obviously they're trading like gold futures or something i don't
know but the traders do do love trading some goals i'm sure on the leverage side of the sides
of it there's some products yeah the last couple of years they have liked it but i mean it's been pretty it's a pretty tough asset to like get great
returns trading prior to that but yeah it's been on a run and yeah well that's from a trading
perspective i think that's where the miners come in a little bit you know because they've got a
little bit more price volatility you mentioned you know so aMI, which is the silver miners is up 141% year to date, but
the gold miners are up 150% year to date. So it's, it's like two, uh, killer spaces that are
generating like, you know, really, uh, interesting returns for investors, um, even above and beyond
what the underlying spots are doing. So, you know trading perspective those might be more attractive because they got a little bit more juice than the spot
yeah they're definitely higher beta vehicles and you know there's some great leverage vehicles too
that you can trade if you really want to like trade gold uh but i've
always been more of a single stock asset guy it's just easier to predict easier to build conviction
easier to monitor through earnings report so that's kind of how my game is but yeah i mean
there's a lot of ways to play these things if you if you really want to trade the momentum in these
commodities i mean commodities have been this last five years has been one of the most volatile periods ever for commodities, broadly speaking, including
storage value assets like Bitcoin and silver, and pretty much every other commodity too. You look
at the volatility in things like copper and all of the rare metals and alloys. It's been
a hell of a five years for commodity traders. There's been plenty of
volatility to trade off of. So yeah, there's a lot of opportunity there if that's your
cup of tea. Not my cup of tea, but if that's your cup of tea, there's a lot of opportunity
there.
We're closer. One or two more topics left. I did think the, uh, SpaceX, I don't know if you, you saw this, Paul, it was funny because
I think last week on the space, we were talking about that little space, space category.
And maybe this isn't the future one, but there was a SpaceX headline.
They may be going public at $1.5 trillion valuation next year.
that's what the alleged headlines are saying right now.
That's what the alleged headlines are saying right now.
I wondered if you had any thoughts on that one.
Yeah.
You know,
it's an interesting space and you know,
I learn a lot.
I always say this.
I learn a lot from you guys when I talk and you guys start to generate ideas.
So that definitely is something that we've brought up in,
in our communications and what we've talked about on the product side.
So I don't have any news for you today,
but I'm definitely interested
uh in that uh no pun intended space and um you know i think things are moving towards uh that
um you know you know greater activity for a lot of different things in space so um more to come
there as we dig in but if there's any announcement, um, definitely,
you know, from my perspective right now, like that's something to look forward to.
I just think there's, there's a lot happening, uh, right here down on earth.
Uh, that's super exciting.
Uh, and we're sort of focused on those key areas where, you know, we have, uh, you know,
a lot of, uh, investment, uh, targeted investment, uh, and growth, um, targeted investment, and growth,
because we think that there's a lot happening here.
But totally looking at space as an asset class
and thinking about what companies could be included
and talking to some index providers to see whether or not we can make that happen.
Love it. Awesome. That is very cool. Paul, was there anything else that you wanted to leave the
people with? Anything else that you got going on? We always appreciate you joining in and getting
to talk about some of the different themes and all that great stuff. And it's always interesting
how it aligns with what we're talking about here. But yeah. Yeah. The only other thing that I would
say is the largest financial institutions in the world
are really positioned for whatever happens.
You know, we've got so much going on in the marketplace.
There's so much noise.
So many people have opinions.
And a lot of times what you see is a ton of volatility.
And, you know, like one little comment can mean this.
One little comment can mean that.
But we think that no matter where the world goes, there are certain things. If you're thinking about, you know, adding, uh, something to your portfolio that has a
potential for high growth, but also can limit the downside risk.
If you, you know, are worried about exogenous shocks, or if you're worried about, you know,
potential correction in the future, we still believe that the largest financial institutions in the world offer that. We have an ETF called
GSIB, G-S-I-B. It's essentially a collection. It's the only active ETF that we have, and it's only
active in the sense that we look at what are declared globally systemically important banks
on a yearly basis, and then we make up a portfolio
of those 29 names. We equal weight them. We rebalance them on a quarterly basis.
And again, the reason why we like the largest institutions in the world is because
they have tremendous scale. They have the most deposits. They're interconnected.
They're part of all of the major investments that go on around the world.
They're less interest rate sensitive, so on and so forth. And so they're positioned very,
very well as all weather investments in any kind of financial environment. And because of what
happened in 2008 and because of the standards that they're kept to today, we believe that that
will continue moving forward. So when the market's ripping and going well, they tend to do well. Again, the year to date on the website, it's 54.75%
year to date. It's one of the best performing strategies in its category since inception,
if not the best, you know? And so we think it's a key and critical component that sometimes often gets overlooked.
And there's an easy way to get exposure to all of these in one shot.
And that's through our ETF G-SIP.
So with that, I just want to thank you guys.
Those are sort of the themes that we're talking about most
with the advisors that we talk about on a regular basis.
And just thank you guys for giving me the opportunity
to talk with your audience and share it.
We appreciate you for joining in, Paul, as always.
Like we said, our goal is to just put interesting stuff
on your radar with some really great companies
doing reputable stuff.
You guys should be making informed decisions.
Websites are great places to do that.
Summary prospectuses are great information to have.
The tweet pinned up in the nest above will have some of that information. And then there's a link
below it, but you guys should go in and dig in. And we appreciate you for joining in and support
what we're doing. Keep it free forever. Thank you, Paul. Shout out. That was a good place on
this spaces. I may end up closing us down here you should make
sure you are following the speakers including that leverage shares account whoever whoever
leverage shares has posting the charts on their account does a fantastic job 10 out of 10 so shout
out to that um but uh this account here the host of the spaces we are live pretty much every single
monday through thursday uh 3 to 5 p.m eastern at least uh talking with stock
talk weekly and a bunch of others we appreciate everyone for hanging out with us so fast stock
market news the wolf account the emp account up here ryan uh we appreciate him hosting the wolf
training stuff fast stock market news also post some stuff to wolf financial too so cool times
appreciate everyone we will catch you all tomorrow. Same time, same place. Have a great one team. Shout out to leverage shares, themes, all that stuff,
supporting what we're doing. Thank you.
