Okay, so we're all going broke today.
Hopefully people have made some successful trades.
I was going to cover like, I don't know if you guys picked up the Apollo airdrop yet.
The only people that that would be relevant to are people who were on like, I believe
people who had assets either on Terra with Luna or who had Apollo Dow coins back on Apollo
I got airdropped a lot of money, so I don't know what is going on exactly, but there's
different approaches to dealing with the airdrop.
They released basically on coin gecko very early, so you can actually see their market
cap and everything, and Apollo released in such a way that the entire token supply is
sort of released all at once, so there's not like any team tokens and shit, so they had
a kind of a fair valuation for this thing, essentially, and I felt like the market cap
of this thing was too high, I don't remember where I looked it up, but it was kind of like
Zephyr's market cap, but I mean, like Apollo is not anywhere near like the level of project,
it's basically like a little Dow type thing.
Anyway, so I took my airdrop and I actually converted it to Adam, so I did the cardinal
sin of selling the airdrop with the thinking that I could probably buy it back at some
point lower, as some of the sort of airdrop sell pressure settles in.
The Apollo team is good though, they're good people, they've been around quite a bit,
and I don't know like how useful Apollo Dow is going to be, but it's basically going
to be on Neutron, so the whole thing is like you connect your Terra wallet, you sign that,
and that creates some kind of message that then goes to Neutron, you have to have some
Neutron tokens to your Neutron wallet to sign that shit, and it's a bit of a pain in the
ass to sort of get the job done, but I was able to sort of sort that out and get everything
connected and get the airdrops, because you're basically interacting with two separate chains,
Apollo Dow was on Terra, and now I believe it's going to be on Neutron, and that's why
there's this extra step of connecting two separate addresses or whatever, especially because
your Terra address is not likely to be the same as your other Cosmos addresses unless
you made them all at once.
Anyway, so there's that, a lot of the alts and stuff pulled back pretty good, some more
I was just looking at something like Atom, which looks like shit for the most part.
It's pulled back to its first fib off of its bottom, which is pretty weak, so if you think
about dividing up any asset, there's basically sort of the bottom price of a swing low,
and there's one, two, three, four, five fibs, and there's like the 1.0, which is basically
back to all-time high, and the bottom for Atom's example is $5.5, and now it's at 9.262
after like, I don't know, like a fucking year and a half, so it's like pretty weak
Now, if you stake it, of course, you're getting staking rewards off of it, and therefore,
those are running at about 14%.
If you held this for the last few years, your actual cost basis, like your position may be
over 12 bucks already, even though the price is actually 9, but either way, like Atom's
has had a really tough time, even with the early rally of this year.
It pulled from like six back up to about 12 off its sort of recent bottom, but that's
You could argue that's very similar to a lot of other coins, but still not very impressive,
and like even stuff like Doge, for example, it pumped the minute like Twitter said something
about like this, you know, X finance app or whatever you want to call it, the payments
app for this platform, and even that like pumped from like immediately from I think
it was around 79 cents, it pumped to like nine cents and dumped immediately back down
like all the way back to 0.076 cents or 7.6 cents.
So it's interesting how quickly like these pump and dumps were happening.
It's just like people just exerting leverage and then, you know, pulling their orders once
they feel like they made a profit or whatever, just pure momentum trades is where this sort
Let's see what else is happening here.
So BTC just kind of made it over 50, 40,000 again.
It pretty much landed right on its fib, which is a 39k and then kind of like kind of little
It's under its 50 day moving average now, but over its 200 day.
So it's kind of in that la-la land of where that always makes people nervous.
Like anytime something is above the 50 day moving average and just sort of climbing,
people are really happy, you know, it's parties everywhere and you know, you usually get like
a couple of months of, you know, forward price action upward and then you go below the 50
day moving average and like, uh oh, you know, is this going to be the reversal that does
Is it just going to be another dip and it goes on up again?
What you don't really know is like how much more money is coming to the market.
You just don't know for sure.
So like you can do all sorts of TA and bullshit and you know, see what Jim Cramer says and
But the reality is none of these people really know what new money is going to come in a month
from now, two months from now, three months from now, who the fuck knows that?
And retail and everybody tend to be a bit late, right?
So like if you have a happening year like this coming year, prices could go sideways, sure.
And you know, if like if BTC drops below the 200 day moving average, it's done this before.
Like it did this back in August or whatever and still kind of rallied above.
So you know, is it going to do the same thing again, which puts BTC at like 32 K and then
run up again if very well could.
But typically these sort of like dips and rallies, that's like a cup that takes about
three to six months to play out.
So it's really slow, really.
Like take for example, BTC when it came back up to like 31 K, then it dipped and then went
back up, then it dipped and went back up and how much time elapsed during that time.
That was like April all the way to breaking that again, which is October.
So you're really talking about a good six months for these dips.
So you can't really panic about these things.
What happens is if you're watching prices every day and you have a pretty big bag of
altcoins and shit, you're like, you know, it's like you're running around your eyeballs bleeding
because the price action, of course, all alts are basically leverage plays on BTC.
And when BTC drops, everything else drops a lot.
So BTC might drop like, I don't know, 30 percent, but then your alts might drop 50.
What you don't want to have happen is if you have pretty good conviction alts, you don't
want to sell the bottom of these fucking things.
Even if you have to wait six months, even after what a year or whatever, you don't want
And the reason, like people will try to sell and go, oh, I'm going to sell buyback lower.
Like the momentum looked like it's down and cryptos with Twitter said so and shit.
I would very, very strongly caution that sort of behavior now.
Like that would might have been interesting, like back in 2021, you know, as you know, after
you had a mega giga bull run and everyone was pure FOMO mode.
But you do that shit now.
You had like a year and a half of consolidation at bear market.
And again, despite what you see on crypto, Twitter, another BS, the reality is, is that
like the probability of upside is actually higher than downside just by probability.
If you just say a year from now, we're more likely to be higher or lower.
Odds are higher, especially in the happening year, you know, so, you know, you know, anything
So I'm just saying odds are higher.
That doesn't mean everything's going to for sure be higher.
But the point is like, like, let's say you bought something like, you know, chain
link it topped out about $17 so far, let's say about 15 bucks.
I've got a pretty sizable bag at 15 bucks.
You know, am I just coping to you guys saying I'm not worried about it?
No, like if it goes down to 10 bucks, fine, whatever.
I just add some more on the way down.
You know, I have a bag at seven.
And, you know, so somewhere in between, I can always get more, no big deal.
I'm used to, especially if you have large bags, you got to be used to your money going
up and down a lot by now.
If you're not, I don't know what the fuck to tell you, like, you know, get out of this
Pretty much get out of crypto.
You just haven't figured this shit out yet.
So yeah, you'll get into modes, you're like, you'll FOMO, you'll buy too high.
You'll maybe not have as much conviction at the very bottom, but then develop it later
and then by that point you've bought too much high and then the price drops and shit.
All that stuff is pretty common.
Like I wouldn't worry about it too much.
What you don't want to do is basically just like hand over your bag to people for cheap
after buying it more expensive.
The way market makers work is like if you are buying at the very bottom at supports,
you're actually taking money from them and you're making them poor.
If you market buy like closer to tops, like for example, like where you might have almost
breakouts, you're actually paying them and it actually benefits them to actually have
the price go down so they can buy back the same coins at a lower price.
So it's like they prefer, like if you, if you want your coin price to go up in theory,
you would behave like a market maker and you would go in there and let's say, you
know, you have chain link or whatever.
You're not sure what price you want it, but you know what, I've got some money laying
I'm going to leave a limit order in there for $12, right?
So then what happens is, is that the more limit orders that accumulate, the market maker
say, wait a minute, like we can't make money if everyone is like parked with orders at
They'll move their orders up, right?
Because they want to front run your orders that are sitting there or the community's
And you know, so they're relying upon essentially market buys and market sells to sort of make
So the more people that buy at near a breakout thinking that the price is going to break
out, the more likely it actually could not, it might not break out because basically the
market makers are getting rid of all their coins and their interest at that point is
to have the price go down.
And there's a variety of ways they do that.
One of the ways they do that is they take, they do a bunch of scammy shit, like they'll
take their limit orders and they'll move them way down.
So on the order book, it'll look like, oh, there's nobody wanting to buy this thing
and they'll move them down to like, let's say chain link, they'll move their orders
And you're like, what the fuck?
You know, like, you know, the price is going to fall all the way to seven.
That is all just shenanigans designed to sort of take your money.
And this is why looking at order books is not as useful as you might think.
It's a lot of, like, whoever can manipulate the order book to look however they want,
the people with the most money can actually make it look, you know, bullish or bearish
depending on how they feel like making it look.
And that's where you got to be careful.
But generally, like, if you're doing market orders and things and you're doing it like
at, you know, at support levels near bottoms, then that's a good thing.
You don't want to be buying after like a run up if you're buying spot.
You want to buy them only on pullbacks.
And ultimately, that's more bullish for the actual coin, the more people that do that.
But you know, how much impact are you individually going to have?
Not the people that are top buyers necessarily.
Hopefully this makes sense to everybody.
Like there is, it's just the way market making works.
You know, if you're the person on the other side of that trade and you're only in it
for delta neutral, you're not in it to make money off the coin.
You just want to make money off the trades, on the fees and off the slight differences
Then in order to do that, you have to, you can't have too much of a book where like,
let's say you're a market maker for a link.
You have to be fairly balanced in terms of how much stables you have and how much link
You can't just be like all in link.
That's not how you'd market make.
So they have to stay more delta neutral.
And if you're a large enough organization, you can do all sorts of shit like short the
coin and whatever somewhere else, if you're feeling like you're offsides.
So if you're kind of like, if you have the size to manipulate the market and a market
moves in a direction that you did not expect as a market maker, then you wind up having
situations where they have to try to catch up and get their books straightened out.
Anyway, just some interesting things.
But yeah, you can definitely like, the more that you take from market makers near the
bottom, the better off like generally.
And also like if you're taking coins off the bottoms, then you're actually getting more
coins for the money and you're taking that out of circulation and you're sticking your
Taking the circulating supply and getting getting off exchanges that can contribute.
So if you are like do simple stuff to contribute to the value of your community or your coin,
take the coins that you get, move them off exchanges, again, whatever.
Anyway, oh, Blaze, thank you for about DMing me about that Apollo airdrop, by the way.
Its market cap was kind of silly.
I think it was like 40 mil or something, so I was like, this is kind of stupid.
It makes more sense to, it actually dropped to 28 million, but actually sold my airdrop
with the thing and I'll just buy it back lower as it dips because like the market cap
made zero sense for what the thing is, like for the project actually.
So it's like it's not worth 40 million dollars, like, you know, it's like a simple little
Anyway, so in either case, good things to say about the Apollo team, the other good
people, yeah, you know, the whole point of releasing these coins is to let you do whatever
you want with them and it's not automatically your job to huddle them necessarily.
If you sell them by the back lower and you're more diamond handed than the next guy, you're
actually helping the system not harming it, interestingly enough.
The initial chart may not look exciting, but then again, like, it generally won't because
like Apollo's on neutron, there's not much to do there yet.
Anyway, it's like, you know how these prices go, they don't they don't make any sense.
Let's see any other interesting things happening.
Let's see what like what happened to some other coins here.
I was right about that fetch AI token that, you know, that it seemed like it was going
to pull back and it went from like 0.79, it's dropped all the way to 0.53 and then
like its next bib down is about 0.40.
I bought the thing originally at 0.40, hoping that the thing would run to all time high.
It still could like it's still just below its 50 day moving average, still floating way
above its 200 day moving average and it still could, but I think it needs to cool down
like if you just look at it in general, it looks like it's going to do like a cool
down for the next who knows how many could be as up to six months.
Let it break prior high at some point in the future, it could, or it could just simply
run out of steam because nobody gives a shit about the AI narrative necessarily.
So that's the thing with that one.
It's a gamble on its sort of early bullishness and attention and crypto wizard and whoever
Is there enough money to make that thing keep pumping higher?
So I figured I would sell it.
I sold it at like, um, when I talked about it on space, I sold it at 70 cents, about 40.
And then like, um, if it, if it dips down to maybe 40 cents, um, at this sort of fib
support and by that point, 200 day moving average will be right about there.
It probably is a good buy again at about 40 cents.
And even that is kind of a maybe because if it loses that and then it will lose its
lower fit below that with just 17 cents, um, and it'll drop all the way down to like nine
So it'll get a, it'll get obliterated if it goes down fast.
Um, so I don't know how it's going to perform for sure, but you know, is it going to be
like a bull market favorite going forward?
Like the next couple of years, I don't know about that.
It's a big, maybe it was a gamble on crypto wizard, honestly, and I'm not sure how much
it maybe like all his influence has already been initiated.
Like maybe that price already incorporates all of his chilling.
So maybe like, I don't know, it's, it's a maybe I know I took my fetch and I bought
chain link with it is what I did because it's just a safer bet at this point.
Um, so I kind of like just moved that those gains into that.
Um, same thing with like a cash, a cash I sold it at like three 10 it's now about
to 64 and uh, so again, these micro caps or these mid caps, you're going to pull back
Um, it's, it bounced off about 50 day moving average and I don't know, I'm not feeling
strongly that there's a huge new set of buyers for that either.
And I think it needs to correct big time as well.
It's probably, um, down to about a buck 40, maybe to the 200 day moving average
at least it hasn't touched its 200 day moving average since freaking me, like five to
So we're talking about like from May onward, it's been just straight bullish and it's just
needs a cool down almost surely and, and it not only that, but it's, um, it's market
cap is like way overvalued for what it does.
So it's one of those things where, um, you know, it's like narrative runs are very speculative
runs and are they going to hit prior highs?
Um, how long is that going to take?
Like it could drag for quite some time now we'll see, um, other stuff.
Like let's see what happened to injective.
So I originally bought injective at 25, um, when he started rolling over at the top, um,
I ultimately sold it at about 40 cents, um, I'm not 40 cents, $40.
So I made a little bit of positive gain there and then I took that and I just bought some
more Zephyr at some point, which also went down more.
But um, but I bought it with some gains like about, uh, cause Zephyr is riskier in a sense
So it's going to dip a lot more, but I bought it with some things that are already in gain.
Um, so injective, I don't know, it's whatever, um, I've always been kind of like if it
was going to run to prior high very quick or I'm sorry, run up its fibs like 90 bucks
But at this point, like, is it going to go sideways for a period of time?
Probably like, you know, it's sort of like lost its momentum along with other things.
Volumes across altcoin space, total three are falling off and it wouldn't surprise
If like all went sideways to like, I don't know, who knows September, even, um, hard
to really say, um, especially the ones that already ran.
So I'm, I'm really like subdividing the ship.
It's already gone up compared to the stuff that hasn't gone up at all or barely moved.
Um, like, you know, dogecoin, Litecoin, Adam, these things have barely moved.
So they're on the one hand, relatively low risk for downside, but at the same time,
you don't know for sure what kind of attraction those things are going to have the upside
Um, as sort of like, quote unquote dino coins, um, like part of the reason I went sort
of heavy bullish on link more so lately is because like, I'm having a hard time finding
a lot of shit to love in the crypto space and you know, it's like things that actually
have lots of announcements, things that have a lot of real stuff opening up, um, like,
But if, if we get a run through the summer, like just looking at the link chart, it looks
like the most likely one to have kind of a decent defy summer, just like it did in 2020.
So in 2020, if I don't know if you guys were here, but like, there was a big run up for
It was relatively new at the time.
So it's like a, it was kind of like the popular shiny new object thing.
And it ran up heavy before the, the gigable run started in 2021.
And it actually front ran a lot of the other things.
And then what it did was during the actual bull run, especially Bitcoin's double top,
the second time BTC ran up to 70 K chain link just got a faltered, just dragged.
And it didn't even like double top, just like BTC did.
And I don't know, like who was dumping it or whatever.
But the point is that it, it, um, it's, it like didn't, it underperformed the latter
And this could possibly happen to a lot of the coins that have run so far, like there's
no guarantee that like your, your Solano is your fetches, your injectives, whatever.
They're going to actually perform well during the bull run because they're like, if we
have a BTC pullback, people will be like, Oh, that's a low risk thing.
These things over here that have run up a ton already, do they, are they really worth
kajillions of billions of dollars of Margaret cap, probably not.
But it's not, it's not obvious that those will catch a bid necessarily, um, especially
cause some of these protocols, there's not much shit to do on them like, like a neutron
Maybe there's a meme coin here and there, and there's like a Dex or some shit, some
random gun junk, joint, junk coins to sort of trade around.
But like very few of them offer anything really, really like great where you're like, Oh my
God, I have to own this is going to be the next fucking things in sliced bread.
It's going to be amazing.
Like I don't, you don't, I don't get that feel from too many things.
Like I think that feel I get a bit from, you know, a little bit from Zephyr because
Even then that didn't prevent it from like doing a drawdown from like $52 all the way
to now it's $12 and 50 cents, which is a pretty shitty drawback.
Like and I think that's just timing and it just happens to be how the market is right
And when BTC kind of drags, it kind of pulls it down with it.
It's breakout for Zephyr was like six bucks.
So I think you'll find increasing buyers as you get close to this breakout.
So it seems like, you know, can it hold like $9 and 80 cent fib?
Is it just going to turn around at this level?
It's been kind of bleeding out a bit and volume sort of has picked up with each of these
little dips, but then it hasn't held.
So just have to see how that goes.
But anyway, but like all coin stuff, I think we'll run again.
Hard to know exactly when, but I think like more money has to come into the market.
I think a lot of the pumps so far have been kind of PVP, like take, for example, the link
run, which kind of ran like starting, you know, early October.
I think one of the reasons why link ran, I didn't realize this at the time, but Bankless
had Sergey Navarov on like right around that time.
And then like a few days after that, the thing starts running.
So I think like, what does that imply?
Bankless is a bunch of existing crypto dorks, right?
Those existing crypto dorks go and watch, you know, Bankless and they're like, fuck it,
we're going to dive into Chainlink because it looks interesting.
So then it runs, you know, so like it's if you look at some of the stuff that's pumped,
they've pumped with truly like only crypto natives buying it.
Like you think a whole bunch of new people bought Kujira, get the fuck out of here.
You think a whole bunch of new crypto newbies bought Zephyr?
You think a bunch of crypto newbies bought Chainlink and, you know, while watching Bankless,
Like these are all like subscribers and existing users that see this shit and then go by,
At least that's my theory.
Like I don't think that stuff attracts a lot of newbies just yet.
And that could also be evidenced by the fact that like Google Trends has not shown
a lot of search hits for, you know, like when newbies show up and they Google stuff,
That's that's what tells you the newbies are in the game.
You haven't seen very much of that yet.
So I think like this has all been kind of bit PVP.
And I think this coming year is going to be about like attracting, you know, more friends
and family and whoever, you know, you know, people, the network effect is going to bring
new money in as as people talk about it and whatever.
And pullbacks like, you know, if you're if your portfolio looks wrecked, then tell your
friends to go buy whatever the fuck else.
Like that's exactly who your friends should benefit from your pain, ideally.
And then what happens is, is those become happy crypto users because now they've got
In fact, they got a deal even better than you.
Like they'll they'll you know that that's it works out well because everyone's happy when
People are not happy when number goes down.
So like you want to tell people shit right at these bottoms or at least something perceived
But anyway, like getting back to chain link for a minute, like the the price action
has been actually quite good.
The last BTC dump like chain link dropped to twelve dollars on January 3rd.
For this dump so far, it only made it to 1358.
And so BTC is doing better.
And on top of that, chain links putting in higher high, higher lows.
And chain link is notorious for doing this shit, by the way, it'll go to 20 and then
It's like the volatility is obscene in within a month.
And it'll shake people out big time because they'll just go completely panic.
They're like, oh, you said to buy 15 and I bought a whole bunch.
And now my portfolio cut in half or whatever.
It's like it's amazing how fast this thing moves up and down.
So you just have to like really get some steel balls to watch these things.
It's just like part and parcel of like the space and the volatility anyway.
But like chain links when I kept adding to it, man, are they releasing a lot of shit
goddamn like between all the different things that are adding CCIP, there's another thing
called chain link automations, which is like off chain execution.
And like they just announced that Coinbase is what he called the base, you know, blockchain
or whatever you call it is the baser for you.
It's called the block shit.
Anyway, they're blocked the coin space is a base.
Yeah, they're blockchain has just incorporated some elements of chain link as well.
So yeah, just constantly bullish like information and they've done a dramatically better job
of running their fucking Twitter paid like Twitter thing.
They're releasing something interesting and new and animations and cool shit all the time.
And man, you should never in crypto underestimate a shill cartel like and Coinbase set out
this thing that would you like to be a, you know, Coinbase like community partner
or some shit like once you just say shill cartel, but the basically like a community
advocate they're trying to set up so that they can kind of like, it's like I guess
people that are going to help with either shilling or making YouTube videos or something.
I'm not sure what those people are going to do, but they're literally paying people
for this, which is really good.
If you're a holder of this thing, like these developers that are like, oh, we don't have
to shill anything fuck that what happens in crypto is nobody knows you have a project
and it just dissipates into nothing like Adam suffers from this, like there's nobody
It doesn't go up as much as ought to even though it's really interesting tech or interesting,
you know, interchain money or whatever you want to call the damn thing.
Bottom line is there's almost nobody talking about it.
No YouTube videos and nothing.
So the thing is, which is great if you're trying to buy the bottom, you don't want
something that's like pumped to high heaven.
On the other hand, you want someone to pump it eventually.
Otherwise who the hell is going to know about your bags and who's going to buy
So, yeah, I mean, attracting new investors is like a process and whichever
blockchains or teams or communities do that better, you're going to attract a lot
more people. Obviously, a good product helps too, but shit like even a good
product that nobody knows about.
I mean, I'm sure out of the thousands of millions of PlayStation games, there's
probably some cool shit out there that nobody's ever heard of, you know, like the
only reason you didn't play it was because and it would probably suit your
personality great. The only problem is you never heard of it.
Tech that is created and people spend millions of man hours making and you
don't actually use it is useless tech.
So it's like I think it's bullish when you see communities active on Twitter.
I know like someone was saying, hey, where did all the community go?
Like what happened to them?
I mean, people get bored basically.
They're like either they run out of money, money, the price is going down,
they're bored or there's not enough shit to do on the blockchain.
So there's not enough like alpha to be spreading and they're bored.
And so things kind of like go sideways for long periods of time.
And then, of course, like when eventually price hits bottom, the price turns
upwards and it starts going up.
Everyone's excited again.
People like start talking about every fucking project in the sun.
They're researching the, you know, everything.
And then they're jumping in.
So there's this tendency certainly to buy when the price is going up and when
people, the price is going down, everyone's in the doldrums and like, even
if you hold a Twitter space, it's like, oh, you're just holding a coping
space or some shit, which to some extent, that's what they are.
But like bear market, Twitter spaces are fun because everyone's just sort of
chilling and not worrying about the price action and stuff like that.
Sitting here late at work.
Surprisingly, a lot of, a lot of pre-approvals coming in.
I had a pretty late work today too.
Picked up some Italian food and yeah, it took me a long day.
I yeah, I'm going through all the emotional battles of the crypto market.
It's like every other week I have like a different perspective.
Like one, one week I'll want to hold, you know, a higher percent in my portfolio.
And then the next week I want it to be, you know, Zeph and, and, you know,
Like, I'm just not sure, man.
So, so, you know, given the anonymity, it's a little easier to, to, you
know, talk about all the stupid shit I do, but, but my portfolio got about an
equivalent amount of Zeph as I do Chainlink.
So I'm going to talk about stupid.
Mine's pretty, I have a lot is up too.
I've been buying pretty heavy on the bottom.
I mean, my, my average buy price is around 21 bucks right now.
I mean, for the first buy was at 19.
I was going to buy it around 14 when I, it's actually the first time I ever heard
any of your spaces was one of the Zeph, the early Zeph Shills.
Oh, but that first got to miss six, but I bought all the way down to current
price, so it's like the average probably 20 or some shit now.
Yeah, something like that.
But I put a lot more, I put a lot more in over time, but you know, here's
a thing like indirectly, what are you doing when you buy proof of work coins
or proof of stake, what you're doing partly is you are, you are financing
the actual system in a way, right?
Because miners are selling and they're, they're, they're making money off your
money and even proof of stake, it's like inflation is doing what's paying
the rewards to the, the validators and stuff, right?
So no matter which system you're in, that inflation is you basically paying
for the expenses of the network and the growth of the network.
And the idea is that if that happens, then eventually number goes up because
more people are in the network.
And yes, it's Ponzi-ish in that, like more people have to join up for
the number to go up, but inevitably if a system is useful, more people will
join up because they like the utility of the thing and want to use it.
So, but we don't, we don't really know is how many new people are going to
come to buy, you never really know that for sure.
And that's exactly why, that's exactly why I just joined up here.
I'm hoping you can alleviate some of that fear.
Well, I mean, it's just like in crypto space.
It's like, yeah, this is the coke space.
Basically like when number, when number goes down, you're, you're
always just looking for like someone to tell you everything's going to be okay.
I mean, that's, that's what it is.
It's like people will go on Twitter and they'll blame the devs for number go down.
They will go on Google and see who's like talking about their particular coin.
Like it's funny cause like it's a joke, but it's like you, you're always
looking, you're doing your research when the number goes down because when
it was going up, you didn't give a shit because like, it's always like, well,
if as long as my number goes up and getting rich, it's all good.
Nobody gives a shit what the project does when number goes up.
But when you become a bit of a bag holder, you're like, Ooh, okay.
I might, the number's gone down.
Is there any reason to believe that it's going to keep going down?
If so, what am I going to do about it?
And you know, are those future buyers going to come?
Is the whole thing going to zero?
Like what, what is actually happening?
Well, yeah, you tend to things.
Zeph is a pretty active project, right?
Like they're, the roadmap looks great.
I mean, even with all this, the, the price dropping, like the, the, the
swap is coming, you know, they've got all these.
But remember, remember the simple thing to remember here is with these
market caps is the actual liquidity, the actual exit liquidity is really
only about 10% of the market cap or less, maybe five percent.
So when you see like a hundred million dollar market cap, um, that doesn't mean
shit, it just means during like the bidding process, it just arbitrarily
looks high because like a bunch of people like bid it up and then sort
of market makers sort of like are riding that wave down.
So notice how everything takes the elevator up and takes the, um, I'm sorry.
When you have the impulse move, it just jacks up really quickly,
but then it bleeds out slowly.
It's like, this is a pretty, it's like elevator upstairs down type of thing.
Unless it's a pure pumping.
Yeah, I've learned that lesson, right?
So, so with all these new releases, I, I, I just, I tend to wait for a
couple of weeks and see what the price action looks like.
And it's pretty consistently like that.
I got burned on Arbitrum when it came out.
Um, you know, that's, let's face it.
Like when I bought Zeph for the first time at six bucks, I bought the top.
Yeah, at that time at market cap was like 15 mil or it was only like
market cap was like 10 mil at the time.
I didn't know it was going to go up quickly.
By the way, I have no idea.
I was like, okay, I'll buy it.
If it dumps big time, I'll buy some more.
And then it suddenly ran up because like it just had this
like run for whatever reason.
So it's like, I figured like that run was luck either way and it wouldn't, like
at some level, it wouldn't be sustainable and pullback, right?
We didn't know what that level would be and whatnot, but early proof
of work things are highly, highly volatile.
Just go back to early BTC, go to early Monero, go to any coin.
It's like outlandishly volatile.
And so the hope is that essentially over a bull market, if you remain,
especially in the top 1000, what usually happens is, is buyers start to emerge slowly.
And what you want is a lot of little bitty buyers.
You don't want necessarily a whale buying all of it.
You want people to continuously pick up the slide.
Forgive me for interrupting, Seth, but that, that brings
me to my exact concern with Seth, right?
And I, I've, I've voiced it before and I actually, in your comments the other
day, I was arguing against this kind of FUD, but sometimes it creeps in there, right?
So the FADF is really tracking down on privacy tokens.
So CoinX had their announcement the other day that you have to have, um, KYC
in order to move any privacy tokens in or out of the exchange.
Um, and it seems to be the trend.
Obviously MEXC hasn't done it yet, but the concern is, right?
Um, it makes it harder to get it.
So, so, and I was, I was talking about the DEX the last time I brought this up saying,
Hey, that would alleviate a ton of this, but in truth, you know, people like, like
us who've been around for several cycles using a DEX is nothing, but you
know, my, my older brother, the newbie needs essential exchange.
So, and, and, and not only do they need a centralized exchange, but they need to
not be on a VPN or using proton mail to log into MEXC or Bybit, you know, they
need, uh, they need an onshore US exchange like Coinbase or Kraken.
And I think Kraken is the only, the only exchange now in the
US that lists any privacy tokens.
Um, I'm just wondering if, if, if Kraken does too.
They're the only one Kraken.
They've been on the DEX for a long time.
I don't know if they still do.
I'm, I'm sure they probably, I'm sure they did.
Cause like I used to get it on there.
I mean, they had XMR for a little while.
They had, they had XMR in 2021, but it's, that's, that's way gone.
Getting to a billion market cap.
If it's on several, like if it's on several decentralized exchanges, but if
it's not on any mainstream, I mean, can it, is it possible for it to realize
it's, it's potential, which is, you know, a multiple billion dollar market cap?
Again, don't know, um, hard to really tell.
And even Monero, like it was around since like 2014.
I mean, the price dragged like, you know, for about a year and a half, didn't go
anywhere until the bull run of 2017, 2016, 2017 for BTC, and then it pumped.
So the thing is like, if you get a gig a bull run, remember everything
pumps, no matter where it is, no matter what you think the narratives is.
Nobody gives a fuck about any of that.
The only thing anyone watches is, Hey, has this one pumped yet?
Oh, no, I'm going to go buy that one.
It's small market cap, like literally nobody cares what it does, what the
purpose of the project is, none of that shit, the most worthless projects
on the planet during last bull run went up like literally everything.
But at that point, it's just the acts, you know, the accessibility of the token.
No, like you would think that, but then like every random, like goofy
ass decks token and junk that is on every random fringe exchange also went up.
So like literally everything went up.
It was just kind of like money just found its way to every nook and
cranny of crypto space, like whatever.
It's yeah, it's funny to watch it happen.
So this is the thing, like I wouldn't get too worried about any
particular coin or project in that respect.
It's like, um, but yeah, is, is it gonna, is it like, is privacy
coins going to be facing some gravity as far as like new entrance it's possible.
Um, but at the same time, like the, the decks that's being created, um, both
the one for like Sarai and the one that's, um, this team is creating
apparently is working on that could be really, really like Zephyr swap,
whatever that could be really, really helpful, because then it
just alleviates dramatically, at least the concern that, Hey, like, you
know, I can't get onboard on here if X, Y, and Z exchange closed or something.
And you want to make sure you want to hope that like those become, get fairly
deep liquidity, essentially too.
So you can enter an exit at your leisure, right?
How would they even get that liquidity?
I mean, it wouldn't it have to be donated by the team.
Well, that's the issue, right?
Like, where is that coming from?
I'm not sure like what the, well, the team has tokens, right?
They have like a half a million of them.
So that's where they're going to use these.
They're going to deploy them to provide liquidity.
And, um, hopefully like they are, hopefully the team is one of the folks
that sold at the top, because that means that they got money and they can take
that and pair it with the, with the, uh, you know, Zephyr tokens they already
have, and they can go and like pair it with Bitcoin or whatever else.
And then stick it on there for like, as an AMM type of thing.
I don't even know what the structure of that deck is going to be.
Like, I don't know if it's like a third chain fork.
Well, that'd be amazing if it were, but I feel like that's, I guess
Thor chain is pretty, pretty simple and it's, it's language, isn't it?
So, no, Thor chains are pretty complicated.
Like, is this, but the thing is now all you have to do is copy paste it.
Cause it's like it's open source.
Um, Maya protocol, which is the cacao, whatever, cacao, Maya, I don't
know which one's it's a fork, but that's a fork, a friendly fork.
And they just simply copy pasta, the thing.
And then, um, you know, you'd have to update something like that for privacy
coins, which, um, has not been, I wish, I wish Sarai were copy pasted Thor
chain that that'd be awesome.
But I mean, at least the fact that they're going to have Monero on there.
I'm not sure what, what, what Sarai's tech is based on.
Like are they starting from scratch?
The problem is starting from scratch is like, it's hard to be a liquidity
provider because these things are complicated and you can wind up with
like a hack or some vulnerability.
So Thor chain had several hacks over the past years, uh, or like exploits
or whatever, not hacks, but basically, uh, leading to them repairing those
things and back on their feet.
So battle tested, uh, code is really important.
Yeah, that battle tested code is really important.
And, and I think like time is the only way to get that.
And, um, so yeah, so Zephyr is one of those, like a bit more of a longer term.
It's like, first off, all of these things, like you're really talking about
a two year bull market assumption.
You're talking about all of 2014 has to go by with having and everything else.
By then, like maybe things start going up and then you get maybe a bunch of
retail shows up by 2015, maybe about 10 years behind.
So you're about 10 years behind there, man.
But the, but like the, the thing is like, by the time you get the, um, the,
but by the time you get the, the crowd, you know, and by the time
people just aping into everything, um, for, for that to happen, you're
basically talking about some time to pass and you're really talking about a
year, year and a half, so like whatever you're going to stand to make in the
altcoin space in terms of like the pump or whatever you're talking about a
couple of years waiting time, really.
And at least we have like the stock market in the green and like, um, you
know, when the stock market is doing well, people tend to go more to risk
on assets at that point, when everyone's like dirt poor, then they're
like, Ooh, I can't be risking this, you know, my incoming cash on random
So they're gonna have a tendency not to go into those risk off assets at that point.
And the timing's a little weird, so all time high with the S and P, right?
But then we have, uh, the, the, the grayscale FUD and wondering how long
I mean, maybe, maybe all the way into the halving, you know, how, how
long do you think that sell off is going to, it's really simple.
Like that FUD will keep going until either grayscales ETF is like mostly
empty, or you see like the drawdowns from grayscale going down substantially
or like the price of Bitcoin, like sort of like flattening out.
But here's the thing, if you, if you look at a chart, like what
constitutes a flattening out of price, how long does that take?
You're talking about like to have a chart look half decent takes
Oh man, that's not three, like nine.
No, I mean, no, if, if the price jumps immediately, yes, it could happen any
time, like if a month from now we're back to 50 K BTC.
That wouldn't surprise me by the way, necessarily it could happen.
But at the same time, if you have price go down further from here, let's
say it gets down to the 200 day moving average, by the time it forms a
full sort of like curve, right?
You know, you look at a chart and approximate how long that takes six to
nine months would be pretty normal, right?
Just, I just pointed out a six month one from May to like, what was
it September or something where, where the price did exactly that, right?
It kind of reached a peak.
It dragged for like, you know, six months.
And then finally it took about that long to break its previous like local top.
And uh, so BCC did that last year.
Um, so yeah, with each of these corrections or dips, like these things
timewise take a lot longer than you think, like notice how much of our
lives is moving by as this price moves up and down, like, like, Oh, it's
Oh, it's six, I mean, it's like a year and a half.
Yeah, it's a pretty substantial time sink.
Um, yeah, it's time, but it flies though.
Like you're like, Oh shit.
Like, you know, I remember, you know, the 2017 top, like it was yesterday
kind of like, and I remember, you know, like, and so it's like the, the
time flies and you, like, you know, and I don't know, it, it seems like
it'll be a long time, but then it's like, you just blink and it's gone.
What, what, what makes it feel a lot longer is when you keep looking
at prices every day, um, really the only reason one should look every day
is really like, because you intend to buy more and, um, the interesting
thing is like when people are bored and the volume goes down, that's
precisely when you should generally be buying because, because when the
volume, when the volumes are at the bottoms, like, so you'll see these
like peaks and valleys on volume charts.
And when you're at a peak at volume, you're almost always like near a local top.
And then as you kind of drop, drop, drop, the further down that goes, you
know, in your head, you're thinking, wait a minute, volume's going down.
Is that because nobody gives a fuck about this project?
Is it because like everyone's forgotten and they've gone home?
Is it because they all ran out of money?
Like you, you spin yarns in your head as far as like what it means.
And the problem is it doesn't mean shit is what it means.
And what it means is the best time to buy crypto is at the bottoms of the volumes.
Like look at a pull up chain link chart and you see what I'm talking about.
Every single volume dip was a perfect, like it was a good buy.
Like, you know, and we're seeing that like happen sort of consistently.
Interestingly, though, with chain link in particular volumes actually rising now,
even though there's a bit of a dip from 17 bucks and it is, it had its lowest
volume day on like January the first or something.
January the, I'm sorry, December 30th, right around that time, that three
day period was like the lowest volume.
And then it started climbing after that.
And so what's been happening is people have been cycling into link because
those people have been putting out tons of videos and shit.
So this is why it's sustaining whereas other stuff is falling.
Like chain links held up better than most of the altcoin space right now.
All except for, all except for the one that I mentioned the other day.
Which, you know, which one's next?
I'm going to keep shilling it.
It went, it's, it's been, it's sitting up around one cent right now,
which is about like twice as high as what I bought it at.
I mean, it's, it's, it seems like it's pretty resistant to the dip.
It's still doing pretty well.
It's like one of these hundred million market cap things.
Um, yeah, yeah, I heard about it at 50, bought between 50 and 75.
And then yesterday I just bought, bought more.
It had one little dip and that was it.
Well, I mean, proportionally though, it's not that it wasn't, it was unfazed.
Like it depends on what your reference point is, but like it went up to, um, a
high of, let me see, one, 1.24 cents or something like that.
Let me get into trading view here.
Or 1.3 cents was the, um, high and it's now 15% down from the high.
It's not bad from, from where it is, but it's, but that's not, that's
after it pumped a little bit.
And the thing is that pump has it actually dropped down almost to nine
point, it dropped down to like, uh, 0.9 cents.
So it dropped a fair amount.
About 25, 30% loaded up even more here, but, uh, yeah, it's still, it's still
doing its thing though, is my point.
And by the way, she does not to be compared with chain link.
Cause this is a much smaller market cap deal.
So like you, you could w like, yeah, you could wind up with like pretty
good price action, but the thing is, if it puts in a head and shoulders
here, if she doesn't run now, it's going to dump hard, right?
Like, cause it's looking like it too.
And now that you mentioned that you look at that, you're like, uh, well,
here's the problem with these things.
It's like every time you get into that range and you're like, Oh, there's
a pullback, it doesn't matter what's, uh, it doesn't matter what chart
formation it is, it always looks physically bearish.
Like you look at the thing, you're like, Oh fuck, that looks like some
sort of reverse head, like a head and shoulders, and it might go down.
But here's the thing realized head and shoulders back on, on like the eighth.
And it just took a little tiny dip and went back up.
And honestly, if you look at its chart going all the way back to October,
I mean, this, this really seems to be the trend it's got.
Although, although in its second shoulder, it put in a higher low.
So it's possible, like it possible that that's not.
So the thing is these always look sort of questionable until they're not.
Meaning if they run, you're like, okay, fuck it.
If it drops, you're going to look back and go, fuck it.
I knew I should have, you know, it looked like bearish.
So these things always like, they're not predictive.
Like you think they would be, but not always.
And sometimes the right thing to do is just stick to the conviction,
especially if it's a low market cap thing and you're happy with your position or whatever.
And in hell, if it drops and if it takes like, I don't know,
let's say it takes six months for it to recover, whatever.
You just have to live with that, right?
Because the two possibilities, like look at Shido's chart.
The two possibilities are one is it takes a dump to like, you know,
and it loses 50 percent of its value or something.
It goes sideways for six, nine months as it reaches its high again.
Yeah, runs immediately, right?
And if it runs immediately, you're going to be pissed.
You're like, what did I do?
Like, you know, on the other hand, if it dumps, you're going to be like, oh, here we go again.
I'm a community member. I'm waiting nine months, right?
So like, you just have to decide like what your time horizon is,
because you're not going to be right every time either way.
So it's kind of one of those things.
The time horizon is, like you said, two years here.
Yeah, you have to like, I mean, this is to really ride these things out.
You have to have like a two year horizon almost because like, how else can you do it?
Yeah, it's difficult with some of these low market caps, though, because you just,
you know, you never know what I mean, this isn't vaporware, but you know,
some of the micro caps, some of these small caps, micro caps.
I mean, it could just be a total load of bullshit, you know,
and you just threw your money away. So.
Yeah, there's no there's no guarantee of success of any of these things.
Like, I don't even know what Shido does. What does it do?
You know, it's it's a it's a layer one.
It's on ETH right now that they're launching their their main net here
So it's it's actually a Cosmos layer one that's EVM.
IBC and Cosmos compatible.
They've got a whole bunch of DeFi stuff on there.
Honestly, you should you should take a look at the website.
I'm sure your five minutes of research and do a lot better than my explanation.
But no, it looks pretty solid.
She does. She does like it's a.
Like on ETH or is it like what's.
There it's it's on Cosmos.
But right now it looks like it's an ETH ecosystem.
It says it's an ETH ecosystem unless it's like
unless it's like an EVM compatible.
Cosmos chain of some exactly what it is.
It's an it's an EVM compatible Cosmos.
So it's basically like it's like Matic basically here.
It's like I'm sorry, it's like polygon basically is what that is.
Yeah, I guess new polygon.
It's like polygon to something like that.
Yeah, it's a little faster.
I mean, people have been talking about it like it's in the image of say.
You know, and it's price action seems to follow, say, but like.
Exponentially, so yeah, and it's only come out relatively recently,
so it's had a pretty good run.
You know, through the last October, really since January, it's had a good run.
Yeah, and it was a fair launch, too, right?
So I'm all about fair launch.
So cubic still not totally sure on that one.
Zeph, Cheeto, all fair, fair launch tokens, so.
But I'll do a little little more research on it tonight.
Next time I'm in the space, I'll give you a better TLDR how it works.
Yeah, man, hoping for this one.
I mean, this ends up being a couple billion market cap is a decent layer one.
I mean, that's a huge pump, right?
Yeah, I mean, if you have like a if you have a bullish theory for the next couple years,
then then all is well, and that's always the thing.
Like every time one of these pullbacks happens, you everyone questions, wait a minute.
Was is there not going to be a bull market?
Like is having, you know, whatever meaningless is just a meme, blah, blah, blah.
Right. Like people have this discussion every single.
And yet, like the gamblers always return for the same, like the same activity again and again.
And then, like, you know, the argument is always like, oh, this is going to be this is the last
cycle or some shit or some some silly shit like that.
Were they saying that the last time around?
Because I've heard a lot of people saying it this time around.
So, you know, people there was all sorts of fun every time is just meaningless noise.
What we do know is that, like, if you look at the market cap of of crypto at large, right,
it just keeps getting bigger and bigger with every new high or low of this of each cycle.
So and the number of developers, the number of projects and stuff keeps climbing.
There's really little indication that, like, people are just going to disappear from this
necessarily. I don't know.
Yeah, there's there's no way.
I'm just wondering how it's going to change its trad, you know, tradify involved.
It's well, that's and that's the reason I have, like, I bought a chocolat of chain link.
Basically, if you just look at where this is going, you say to yourself, OK, like we're
getting close to the point where about secondly plug in my laptop here, we're getting close
to the point where like the to bring lots of new capital, we need to have like certain
new things happen. The ETF thing has played out.
And now we need to have, you know, new money come in.
How do we do that? Like, you got to connect to banks and other things directly.
And that's, I think, where, like, if you believe in the crypto thesis, then you
automatically have to believe in sort of like the chain link thesis at this point,
because nobody else has gone so far as they have in terms of building out an ecosystem.
The XRP people seem to think that Ripple is doing amazing things.
I don't know. Like, they don't seem to be creating any kind of value for the token.
But, you know, they're doing some trad things and I'm not sure how far they're going
to go. I'm not going to say anything too negative about them just because we don't
Ripple has always been kind of a meme to me, you know, ever since the early narrative
that it was like the next ETH back in, what, 2017?
I mean, just I don't know.
I guess I have a bias against it with no reason and I always have.
But yeah, well, the bias came because like they were sort of like this trad
fly coin of some kind in the midst of like a bunch of cyber punks.
And it was kind of like it was not the ethos of, you know,
the anarcho-capitalist sort of movement and such.
So it's kind of like, yeah, that's kind of the story.
You know, I think that's that's why I was sort of shied away.
I soured to it and shied away from it or whatever.
But that's the funny thing is like, but look, it's funny fucking market cap.
It's like, what? Why is it so high?
Who's buying this thing and what the hell is going on here?
And that just goes to show you that you don't have to.
You can be total vaporware and it's all about having a shill cartel.
So it's not like is your tech great or not?
It's how many people are talking about that tech that oftentimes matters.
And so for smaller caps right now, the big issue is always going to be like,
can you build a cartel of shillers to talk about what a coin it is?
We've got to work on this Zeph Cartel for sure.
And but the reality is you don't know for sure.
Right. Like you like maybe you have some big time, you know,
crypto dorks become really involved and somehow like it resonates with them
and they start talking about it or maybe that doesn't happen.
Who the hell knows? Right.
Like you don't really know.
So the virality of things, these things are very hard to predict.
That's why it's super, super speculative.
Always regardless of whether you enjoy the project or think it's a good idea
or anything, it's like and like the more like the hardcore
the community is in terms of people that bought in early
that are willing to talk about the just think about this.
You're like, imagine Zephyr is at two hundred dollars. Right.
And your bags are looking good.
You know, like you will have no problem at that point
talking about how good the project is. Right.
But when the price is going down, it's absolute.
Like, oh, my God, is this thing good?
Maybe no one's going to care about it.
Maybe I'm just the more on the bottom.
Like this is the this is the mentality we get into.
Yeah. And this is true of every world of warcraft guy sitting in his garage.
Right. Like, yeah, copy pasting Monero.
Exactly. Like the immediate exactly.
Like this is always how the thought process goes.
It's like when numbers going down, it's like the only thing you're trying
to do is cope and figure out, wait, what could possibly have gone wrong?
Maybe didn't show it enough or maybe they should have done this.
Or maybe they should have had more YouTube videos or who the fuck knows?
And then you come up with every reason why it should have done whatever.
And slowly what happens is the new crop of bag holders say, hey, wait a minute.
Like we've got to make sure this thing goes up.
And the more people that buy at the bottom, the better,
because all those people become the new series of like shillers and whatever.
And as price tries to trickle up, you'll notice everyone just starts to freak out
again, gets excited about their bags and starts talking about them until then.
Like everyone disappears like, oh, like, you know, what happened to Zephyr?
What happened to whatever coin?
Everyone literally disappears.
I mean, just look at something like a gigantic project like Chainlink.
How many people were talking about Chainlink for the last year and a half
while I was holding my bag? Very few, I would say, like until the recent
conference and like all these CCIP integrations and stuff like and there's
some of those integrations are happening on testnet over like the summer of last
summer. But did I hear about them?
No, I was a bag holder in this thing, but I heard almost nothing
because I wasn't paying attention.
I wasn't going to YouTube, whatever.
And as things start getting bullish again, what do you end up doing?
Oh, let's go do some research.
Let's go see what happened over here.
Let's go see what's happened over here.
And I bought a bigger bag now that like not bigger, but like I bought more now,
even though like I could have bought the bear market low at higher levels.
So there's an interesting phenomenon that happens that even the stuff that you
buy, your conviction and your belief in them becomes like bolstered by the
It's psychologically super interesting.
It happens to everybody, I think.
I was actually pretty negative about Link over the last year, year and a half,
just because I lost a ton of money on it in the second run last cycle.
So, you know, it's sitting there on my watch list, right?
Because I like like what did you what did you pay for it?
Like what I bought it around 2023, something like that.
And then it jumped up a bit, started to come down.
I bought some more probably around high twenties and then it just kept going
down, just kept going down, kept going down, kept, kept going down.
And it teasy a little bit when everything else drops a ton.
The thing I know about link is it always, it always outperforms when
things are bearish, you know?
Interesting thing is like, yeah.
And I don't know if that's a true phenomenon or whether that's just
coincidence too, but like when I remember like the first time I noticed
link was when it ran to 20 and like I picked it up probably at around.
Um, it had dropped down to like seven and it picked back up to maybe 10 ish.
And like, so I started getting in around 10 last season and then like it
started to run and it, and it made it back to 16 bucks chart was looking
I was like, Ooh, this could break high.
So guess what you, you buy some at 16 thinking, okay, this might make a run.
It puts us around a little bit and then it takes another dump.
I don't remember a BTC dump or what the fuck happened, but the point is
it dumps to like $8 and so it has another little capitulation move
around, you know, December of 2020.
Um, and then like from there, it eventually keeps climbing and
then it breaks its high of 20 bucks.
So definitely like, you know, like easy to get shaken out during those
moves, cause if you bought a heavy bag at 16 or 12 and the thing drops
back into 7.9, guess what?
You're like, what the fuck's wrong with this project?
Is it, is it going to go up again?
Is it going to dump into oblivion?
Cause like the thing had already run from like, I don't know, sub
$1 in 2019 all the way to 20, some 20 bucks.
And then like all the meanwhile, you have YouTubers claiming it's
going to go to a hundred dollars.
You've seen these, you know, like meme, meme, YouTube channels or whatever.
Oh, you link to a hundred.
This is why it's going to go to a hundred, blah, blah, blah.
And the other, what's going to go to a thousand.
I watch those every day, by the way.
And it just seems farther and farther away, right?
Like the, and then when it rips, like, so when link, you know, in December,
um, started down at like, again, it was like $8, $7, something like that.
It rips to like, it just keeps going up, up and away all the way to $36.
You're like, fuck, right?
You're going to miss that move.
Um, so yeah, you, you just have to kind of like maintain, um, conviction.
It's really hard to do, especially because these things run so much.
You're like, it already ran from like 50 cents to $20.
Like, am I just the moron, like, you know, behind the top here and this
thing's going to dump into oblivion.
How much are people going, that's been my whole theme, this entire
run so far, everything that I've seen.
It's always like this or five 10 X.
It's like, nope, my point is, my point is in 2020 before the bull run, the
exact same psychology was going on.
You'd go on a link forum or whatever.
And they're like, oh, this fucking thing is nonsense.
It's just going to dump and it's going to underperform.
It's going to do yada, yada, yada.
And then, and then it runs to like $53, right?
As the next following year comes along.
Um, but yeah, like if you were in, um, you know, or like it almost makes me want
to just stick to like trying to predict narratives, right?
So if AI is like, if it's, you know, sort of putzed out, uh, what's, what's
the next one for, for 2025, you know, what's, is it, is it the gaming
narrative because that's had a huge pump over the last three months?
You know, I, I don't know.
Um, is it going to be DeFi again?
Because there's, there's been a lot of regulation against that.
Um, doesn't seem like people are really that interested in staking
like they were in, in, you know, 2020.
So, um, I'm, I'm not sure.
I guess, I guess at this point though, I'm trying more to just look for
narratives instead of, instead of marrying a particular project, even though
I'm completely married to Link and Zeph at this point.
You know, but, uh, we'll see.
Looking for more information on Sirai decks, but these guys, they hardly ever post.
I guess they have to join their discord and looking for updates, but
they post like once every couple of weeks.
Sorry, I had to disconnect for a second.
I think I'm working for more updates on Sirai decks, but these
guys post like every couple of weeks.
I don't, I don't follow all these discords and shit.
So that's, that's why I'm thinking maybe, maybe I need to
follow, follow their discord.
I'm looking for activity.
Probably what we need to do is like everyone in here needs to follow
like one discord of some shit to kind of have alpha different things.
Cause it's impossible for everyone to like follow everything.
If we can organize like that, that'd be awesome.
Cause discord's a fucking mess, right?
In like a five minute update.
Like one person who's following one discord channel can figure out what
the fuck's going on and then tell everyone else quickly, the TLDR, you
know, cause like, yeah, it's very hard to like, keep track.
You'll get notifications out the ass.
I don't have time to watch that shit.
There's no way it's like, uh, so, but anyway, um, no, what I was saying
was, yeah, you were asking about, you were talking about like, what's
the narrative going to be?
And I think like, um, like people are looking for the next large sort of
money thing that's going to show up.
Like where's the new cash coming from?
And the new, like the ETF is one piece of that, but like, you know,
ETF related buys are going to take a year or two as people slowly pick up more
ETF shares and drive up BTC price.
So I think that is bullet for BTC long run.
I mean, people like talk nonsense about it, but like it's, you know, it's
it's a plus it's not a negative.
It's going to be sitting in people's retirement funds.
It's not going to, it shouldn't in theory, lose 85% of its value.
Like it always does at the end of this next bull run.
It should, it should settle somewhere.
It's going to, you know, the dips are going to be shallow and shallowers.
The years go by and it gets exactly right.
But, um, so yeah, it's definitely bullish, but as far as narratives, like everybody
keeps talking about real world asset, I don't see how that could be anything
on a public blockchain that just doesn't make any sense to me.
And the other funny thing is by the way, um, well, no, there are certain parts
of the, the real world assets that can be tokenized, but a lot of factors
have to be external, but that aside, like the recent Bitcoin pump, you know,
like from 40 K to 50 K that whole 10 K move was just speculative noise.
That was just simply like leverage on leverage.
And it's not a surprise that we dropped from 50 to 40.
In fact, I don't even think that would be the sell the news.
Like literally like 40 K was the correct level.
50 K was just an Uber pump.
And I don't think any spot buyers have just suddenly disappeared
because the price dip a little bit.
I just don't think that's the case.
Like I don't see any major problems with BTC or I agree.
Maybe, maybe we go down to the next shelf that like what, what is it?
The next fib for it is like 32, eight on mine.
If you use the 15,000, 15,600 is a low and then 69 K is the high
and you do retracement, it comes out to about like there's a 50 K
and then 39 K and 32 ish is where the levels are for fibs.
So anyway, whatever the case may be.
But the point is whatever it drops to or doesn't like the probability
you'll find buyers again at around probably 32 is pretty high.
So if so, are people going to front run that and just go ahead and ape in?
Maybe are you people that are buying the ETFs?
Do they give a really flying fuck what BTC is worth?
I mean, think about it like we know these people that are buying the ETFs.
It's not even tracking with the same price action.
A lot of people probably go, oh, I'm going to get a little bit of this
Yeah, they're they're holding on for the 20, 30 numbers that they hear
like Cathie Wood talking about.
Yeah, or whatever they're going to buy.
That's why it's not going to have that valley at the end of the bull run.
So, yeah, I mean, yeah, you have some good support.
You probably have some OGs front running it.
Some retard, like, oh, there's some retard that's like,
oh, all the normies came and bought BTC at like 50K now because the ETF opened
and now it dumped and like, I'm like, dude, nobody fucking bought that.
Like, almost nobody bought that.
I get derided at work for doing crypto shit.
Like point one percent of people in BTC came in that day.
Like the number of people that bought that top were like just nominal.
Like, you know, like you could you could buy a top like that in the stock
market with way larger size on any given day and be down the same way.
It's like it's literally meaningless, like nonsense.
So anyway, but like a year away.
It said we're a year away from having having normal people,
you know, emotionally ready to to jump back in.
Either way, like the bottom line is like people will get their ETF shares
and they'll get them over time and that will that will have an effect over
years and it will bolster the price action or whatever future bull run we're
That narrative, like whatever that is, like, OK, that played out, it's come to
Whatever is priced in or whatever is deterministic, who cares?
Like all that will be plus positive for the next couple of years.
Now, the thing is like, OK, beyond that, what's next?
It's like, OK, well, this real world asset argument.
And the problem with our W.A. argument is besides the fact of like you
mentioned, it's like how much of it's actually workable.
The the the narrative part of it is like there's definitely people
saying RWA, RWA, RWA, they're doing it over and over again.
And they're like shielding some random small chains or whatever.
And some of those are probably pumping, you know, Lincoln's mothers that do that
But if you look at like who is actually
like making any progress in this regard, probably chain links, the ones
So it's our WAs are going to be on a private block chain.
It's, you know, exactly institutional access.
And it's all going to be linked together with with C.C.I.P.
and Oracle's through chain link like there's no way they're going to have it
on a public network, right?
They don't have other players in the game to see what their strategy is
and what they're doing. It just doesn't make it doesn't make any sense to me
that it would be completely public unless there is like, you know, some layer
for for anonymity, you know.
So you could you could argue the first real world asset that was brought
on chain was electricity, and that was with Bitcoin.
The second real world asset that was brought on chain would be the dollar,
which, you know, the tether and circular most famous for.
And then next is like commodities that are tied to crypto.
So Paxos G, which is like Paxos is the the gold back coin is Pax G,
I believe it's still the ticker for that.
And I think it's still around.
Let me make sure it was on Kucoin for the longest time.
But like Pax G is what you need to do.
I think it's called Pax G.
Yeah, here it is Pax Gold.
Pax G is what you would use to like be able to gridbot, say, for example, gold.
And you can do some really cool stuff with that because you can basically
bought Pax G, which basically is not going to go to zero in theory
because gold against whatever asset you want.
And if you tokenize stocks, it's really cool
because you can just basically get gridbot yield forever
because you can take like Apple and like parrot against Pax G
and fucking ride the thing.
So if you have like tokenized stock and you have tokenized
commodities like gold, you have tokenized dollars,
you can make amazing box with that with like.
And if you have it on CCIP, the beauty is you no longer need a DEX.
I mean, you don't need a centralized exchange like Kuco anymore.
The problem has been thus far is like
you can't find all these fucking things in one place.
So like the last couple of years, and I thought Luna
U.S.T. would get us there because like we had a stable coin.
We had the thing and whatever. Right.
And you could eventually get some of these things on chain.
You had enough capital and enough of a team.
And now that house of cards fell down.
That's where CBDC is going to come in. Right.
And CBDC could be used for like similar thing to some extent.
Like there's nothing preventing them from being used
for whatever you want them to use it for.
Kujira tokens, because you want something really volatile.
Take some micro cap, pair it with something that's moderately volatile
and then pair it with like a third pairing, which is a stable coin.
And now you have the basis for a really decent grid bot,
which would probably make you like, you know, minimum
like 20 to 40 percent yield at a at a time like per month or whatever.
And it's pretty good, like rate of return.
And you can you can do that cool shit when you have CCIP
because with Chainlink, when you connect all this shit in one place,
then you have your package in one place that's interoperable
with any sort of blockchain that has CCIP.
You have USDC, which is CCIP, CCIP compatible.
You have other things of value that fluctuate in value that are compatible.
And now you can create a bot architecture on a CCIP based system.
And now every asset that's on CCIP is now a possible asset
that you can put into a trading algorithm.
And you can do really nice quantitative trading platforms
for yield vaults and shit.
And you could just park your money there and just ride the Valhalla with them.
So like I when I see the stuff that Chainlink is putting together,
I see like the magic coming.
It's like all the crap that you needed to make really cool defi
and have it secure and not have fucked up fees.
Right. And the problem with quantitative trading is if you do it on Ethereum,
the problem was, OK, fine, you could get patchy on whatever Binance Smart Chain
or wherever the fuck it is.
The problem is that fees were going up, right?
Because the and then they did layer twos.
And then the fees for those fucking things went up.
The thing about quantitative trading is you have to make a lot of trades.
You need those fees to be low, like points like point to five percent
per trade fee is or point three and below is potentially profitable.
Because if you're doing a one percent delta on each like trade.
Point three percent is a lot of your profit.
Fucking 30 percent. Right.
Like, you know, that's the high amount of each trade.
So you need the fee to be low so that you can make all the money
in the in the price movement, if that makes sense.
And so when you have CCIP and you have all these things in one place,
the fee is low because now you're you're not on a block chain.
You're on like a standard fee structure system.
Like your fees don't go up exponentially
just because the use of the chain increases or use of the system. Right.
And so now a quantitative trading platform can actually utilize
something like CCIP on Chainlink.
So I don't know. It looks pretty fucking cool to me.
And I like the CCIP NFT transfers as well,
because that makes it so that like it makes perfect sense now
with Chainlink CCIP that if you're an NFT platform,
you probably should incorporate this because like why wouldn't you
want to sell your NFTs on every platform you can imagine
if you're if you're an end user, right?
Or like why wouldn't you want people that have NFTs
that they made on Stargaze
want to be able to they could sell the exact same NFT on
like, you know, OpenSea, but like, you know,
you're not duplicating them or whatever.
So all of these kinds of things like could be cool.
And you know, like NFT pumps and all that were the thing before
and then now we're going to the ordinals thing
and probably that'll get boring after a while.
But the real world asset thing, the difference
there is that's a narrative that has to play out over many years.
And there's always something new coming.
And as these banks and stocks and tokenization things,
because there's RWA, which is like taking something like a real estate or a car.
But then there's just tokenization of securities that are already out there
like DTCC, like in the stocks trading stuff.
But imagine, imagine you had a bot that you could trade
PaxG in a grid bot against Apple stock.
I mean, like, you know, like how sweet would that be?
Or just like a tokenized version of the SPY.
And now you have like an, you know,
what you can perceive as a safe, like stable, you know, ETF of the SPY.
And now you're able to trade it against like GLD or something
or against PaxG or Platinum or some bullshit,
because you just want the volatility.
You can make the quantitative trades off it, right?
So you can make a really good money off something like that
And imagine like Forex trading.
So remember when like Forex trading almost became a reality on Terra
because it was like the what's it what's the protocol called?
Vertex was coming out and you could trade all these theoretically
like little stable points.
That was going to be cool.
But now with CCIP, the difference is like circle can give you a USD.
You know, some European CBDCs can give you a euro or some shit.
Now you have the ability to Forex trade if you wanted to.
And you can do it on chain.
So these kind of possibilities are really coming with CCIP.
Like the thing like looks sexy as fuck as far as like,
you know, DeFi is actually is fucking 2032 bull run.
Is it going to be like, yeah, how long is that going to take to materialize
in terms of price action?
The narrative and the pump is all about future speculation, not the reality.
Right. You want price to just way shoot past reality.
And then later, the true value of the thing emerges.
Right. Like like take, for example, Monero.
But like its highest price was what?
Just just take a coin as an example here.
Maybe it was in the three.
So if you look at like its top, it was at so currently prices
2.7 billion market cap with one hundred and forty nine dollar price.
It reached a nine point two billion dollar market cap.
Yeah. All time high was five hundred and forty dollars.
Now, that pump, which happened in like 2018.
And the price now is one fifty and it never reached that pump level again.
Could it get there, you know, over the next, you know, five years
because it's putting in higher lows every season?
I mean, that's very much seems like that's hard for the course
for most proof work coins, though.
But Monero, to be fair, is putting in higher lows.
So it's like if you bought this thing at fifty four cents
and you're now at one hundred and fifty dollars,
you've done pretty fucking well for yourself.
Like if you bought this in.
So right now, where is Zephyr?
It's like 2015 Monero, right?
Like it's like it's like a blip on the radar of nothing.
Is it going to run? Maybe, maybe not.
But it's like even if it ran part of the way, you're doing pretty well.
Right. So even if Zephyr's example goes only 200 bucks.
I think the advantage that it has is that its team isn't doxed.
Right. So if you and this goes back to the Sarai integration,
if you have a Sarai integration with XMR and Zephyr, right?
Because the team is doxed.
If the FADF or the IRS comes knocking, they have to,
you know, open up their back door channel and give them a peek in. Right.
So maybe you get people who convert their XMR
into Zephyr on that decentralized exchange because.
Yeah, that's true. Who knows? Right.
It's always good to have connections and it might pump it, it might not.
But no, what I was getting at, though, with this XMR comparison
was not to get into like back into this moment, but more like
if you look at the speculative multiples, they go up way higher
than the real world use case.
The real world use case price of Monero is basically $150.
Like if you look at the last 10 years, what did we discover?
We discovered that Monero's like useful market cap is
2.7 billion dollars approximately with a trading volume daily
about 70 million dollars. That's the happy place for it.
This is the level like at the relative lows, right?
So that tells you something in that like that's the true value of Monero
and it took 10 years to figure out what that was.
And does it get generated more value over time?
Maybe, maybe not. Who knows?
But the same is true of like the chain link idea.
There will be the giga pump based on whatever real world asset
sort of pie in the sky, speculative multiple.
And then you'll get the actual valuation, which will be probably like,
you know, 10 percent of that.
So like if chain link runs to 250 and then eventually dumps back to 25 again.
Right. Then 25 is really the real value.
The rest of it's just speculative noise.
I have a hard time believing that 25 is the real value.
You know, I mean, with but you get my picture.
Like, yeah, I do. Whatever that pulls back to. Yeah, it pulls back.
Makes me speculate whenever you say that, because I'm thinking, you know,
about that lateral move, right?
Well, look at Ethereum, like its first pump was like
like the first mega pump for ETH and then the mega dump that dumped
like 95 percent nine five, like big time dump.
Then the second run up, which was last bull run.
No, is that the third round?
I can't remember. Hold on. Let me pull up each chart again.
what was I trying to point out here?
The pullbacks, like you said, like the higher lows become
the pullbacks are not as deep as time goes on.
So I actually charted these out to the first
run when ETH went to like fourteen hundred dollars.
It dumped down to eighty two dollars
and it had a 94 percent retracement that time.
I was hilarious because I remember like a dude that I was like
talking to and he's like, yeah, I'm buying ten million dollars
worth of ETH over here. And I'm like, what?
And OK. And then he was buying under a hundred dollar ETH
and he's buying ten million bucks worth.
I'm like, what are you doing?
And what he was doing was is like the thing had retraced 94 percent.
Like pretty much everyone had been wrecked, right?
And if anything traces back 95 percent and you're not buying it
and you're in it for some reason, then what?
Because at that point, everybody's never owned it as almost wrecked.
And so therefore it's up only after that. Right.
So the buyer, the seller exhaustion essentially is complete.
And then ETH runs during that sort of like 2019 bear market rally to three sixty three.
It pulls back again to like eighty five bucks again.
Right. During the covid crash.
So that was and then it was like, oh, ETH is dead.
And at eighty five dollars, people like, well, see, here's your speculative shit
coin. The Bitcoiners were dumping all over it.
They were sort of like pissing all over you if you own this thing.
And the whole thing was just hilarious. Right.
It was like ETH is stupid.
But like when it pumped back in 2018, it was like, oh, it's the future of finance.
It's the future of whatever smart contract to the fucking, you know,
you know, whatever the phrase is, like it's the most amazing thing in the universe.
And so on the way up, you definitely get that euphoric like paradigm shift conversation.
And then like at the dump, you know, when ETH double dumped back down to,
you know, eighty eight dollars, everyone was like, see, I told you so.
This three hundred dollars is bullshit.
And like, you know, and then, of course, how many people bought ETH at eighty nine
dollars? Practically nobody.
I swear, I swear. Volume there's practically no.
I was looking at it at ninety two fifty.
A grand set aside, ready to buy it.
And I bought a bunch of retarded stocks and I came out positive.
But the amount of regret I have thinking about that that 2020.
Oh, if you hang around the markets long enough, you'll have a lot of regrets
about the things you didn't do.
That's just that's part of this game.
Like, yeah, that would have had seppy money, man.
So like, so what you do is like so.
I mean, so it runs up like fifty seven hundred percent from the bottom.
And the next dump, which is this last
like, if you argue that that was the bull run then after the covid dump and everything,
this last dump was eighty two percent or eighty one point five percent from the top.
So what would happen with the next?
Well, maybe it will only run to I don't know.
Maybe it'll only do like a maybe it'll go to ten thousand dollars, either
fifteen thousand dollars, maybe at most.
And that'll be a three extra where it is now.
Maybe it reaches trillion market cap or maybe seven hundred fifty million
market cap. And then it's going to do another dump.
That next dump might be only seventy five percent.
Let's look at BTC, for example.
What was the retracement this last season?
Let's see, factor inflation.
It's eighty percent, but it was it was said, yeah, that's true.
So if you factor inflation, it's even worse.
Yeah. If you look at on that basis.
Yeah. So BTC dumped from the top something like
I mean, the FUD was a lot, a lot worse this time around, you know.
I mean, it was it was cataclysmic.
You had you had two major FUD events instead of one.
So otherwise, I'm sure it probably would have.
You know, would yeah, there was all sorts of exchanges,
all sorts of FUD was going on.
But yeah, it was a seventy eight percent drop this time around.
So you could argue that the next ETH dump will be probably around that level,
probably seventy five to seventy eight percent.
And so where is Chainlink in all this?
Getting back to the point here.
So if you just use that general analysis, you look at ETH, BTC,
you look at the speculative multiples, how much they retrace.
So let's pull up like Chainlink.
So Chainlink, you could argue, had only one bull run so far.
I call that cycle one in, you know,
and for Chainlink cycle one, its pullback was ninety point nine two percent.
So technically speaking, it had a lesser pullback than Ethereum did.
Ethereum is actually worse for the Ethereum.
So is it because like the market's more mature?
Is it because people like Chainlink?
The point is like it does its run gigantic gains from like 50 cents to $50,
whatever it is, probably thousand X or something for some people.
It pulls back, does its 90 percent retracement.
And so if you run like so I kind of calculated based on sort of like
if Chainlink doesn't ETH run, it runs at two hundred thirty four dollars.
Basically, if you look at the same multiples, can it do that?
And there's nothing dramatically more magical about ETH than what
what Chainlink can possibly do.
So like let's say it runs and let's say it runs at two thirty one.
Where is it going to dump to based on what I just said about Ethereum and BTC?
The next dump would be around 85 percent.
So if you say, OK, the dump from the top, where does that hit at 85 percent?
You would be talking about.
Yeah, that 86 percent would be.
Yes, so Chainlink would be dropping down back to around thirty one dollars.
So the future bear market low, if you reach that high, if you don't get that high,
then the low is even lower.
Right. Because it's like it's almost like you could the way you could do it is
like no matter what, you're dropping about 85 percent.
Right. Like 80 to 85 percent.
Almost for sure. Whatever top you get, it's going to be from that top.
And so the higher you can pump it, the better for the future higher low.
Simple like that's the simple way.
Because I mean, if it lines, oh, yeah, from 150, if you pull back
because, yeah, 138, there's like is like two fifth extensions off the top.
So that's very, very feasible.
Comparatively, maybe it doesn't have the network effect of Ethereum.
Maybe it doesn't run that much. Right.
So 150 might be a rational top.
And if you pull back 85 percent from that, you're back down to twenty one
dollars. You see what I'm saying?
So like the the the nosedive these things take is quite substantial,
which is why like one of the lines up perfectly with the previous support.
Well, I guess it makes perfect sense, right, that the FIB retracement.
And it's weird because like the FIB levels and these percentages are all tied
together because because crypto follows FIB so closely that those percentage
ups and downs are also very similar because they're based on FIBs.
It's not it's not random in some sense.
Do you think there's any chance that that chain link comes off ETH someday
and is its own layer one?
I mean, I guess maybe that wouldn't make much sense, but.
I feel like it perform a lot better if it were a layer one, you know.
Now I'm right here. I'm just talking to somebody in a second.
Hey, sorry, I had to sign some stuff for my kid.
Well, good, I'm I'm locking up here like almost nine thirty in my time zone.
Sure. Oh, you know, you're at work still. Yeah.
Anyway, yeah, but like expectations wise, it's like, yeah, wherever the top is,
like, you know, you could make the argument that like if you are comfortable,
the thing oftentimes to do is sometimes just let the price
of whatever asset it is run to the very top of the bull run.
Like have its big dump, have its complacency shoulder
where it runs up a couple of fibs, and then that's where you sell.
Because otherwise, or you can just simply pick a target
that you feel comfortable with and just exit.
Right. Like you could say, oh, I like the chain link at 100.
You could always like do that.
And then even if you don't, you know, run all the way.
You got most of the move.
And if you wanted to gamble, you could do so only if it drops again.
So if it like, let's say you go to 100 and pulls back to 50. OK, fine.
You've now sold, you've doubled your bag at 50.
And now it almost doesn't matter what happens
because you have double the number of coins.
So even from there, if you drop a lot, you're good. Right.
Like so if you make at least one decent swing trade
during the course of that, then you could mitigate the effect
of any kind of like missing up a perfect top or some shit. Right.
So but there can be like substantial tax consequences.
Shit, too, that's the one problem.
Yeah, there's almost no way I'm doing that with my luck.
This time around, swing trading is not a chance.
Yeah. Yeah. Like you said, short term capital gains.
Yeah, it's it's tricky, though, because like sometimes
it's just worth paying the capital gains
than it is to like ride it all the way back to the bottom again.
But yeah, like can Chainlink do its run?
It depends on how hardcore that real world asset thing runs.
And the other thing, too, is like there will be lots of different chains
playing on the same narrative and be like, oh, you know,
bunch of little small projects and whatever is that
it's not like 2014 where like your narrative was just tied
to your one chain and dental coin can go up a gajillion dollars.
You have so many different chains like trying to attract liquidity.
And yeah, so it's so hard to tell like how potent it will be.
I do think it's interesting that Chainlink in particular,
they have this like they have this tweet about something about
do you want to be like not not Schiller, but like,
do you want to be a community advocate?
That's what it was, a community advocate.
Like, what is a like, what is a community advocate exactly?
And again, like it's like you get paid to be
I don't know, shilling Chainlink or something or like hope
I don't know what the fuck that is.
Like if people need a job, they can check that thing.
But like Chainlinks wants advocates.
And I'm not sure what that means.
The crypto bull 77 is going to make a killing on that.
You, too, with all of your link posts.
Who's crypto bull 77 or one of the guys that's posting shit?
But constantly every single day.
Other other narratives I like are are deep in.
I guess that's now a narrative.
But, you know, I guess I guess Akash would be part of that.
Yeah, but some of those seem really like contrived narratives like.
Yeah, but you know, like those utility tokens, man, they like, I don't know.
Maybe you know, the thing about these narratives, though,
people just make them up and then all of a sudden they run
and you're like, what the hell?
Well, yeah, you see, that's the thing.
They just made up a narrative for it.
You had all you had all of these like decentralized storage services before.
Yeah, all you need is a bunch of lending saying deep in, deep in, deep in
over and over again until like it becomes a thing.
Right. That's what it works.
Dude, it works. It does work. It does work.
Yeah, it's like we tend to fade these things.
And it's almost like the fact that we're talking about it
means it's a narrative already.
Like it's it's pretty pathetic.
Right, because like we wouldn't even be discussing it
if it like hadn't already made the rounds a little bit.
But I mean, some of the categories, actually,
if you if you dig down into it are pretty interesting.
Here's an interesting like run, run, run the jewels.
One of the chain link accounts said there are approximately
100 lending protocols with over 10 billion TVL on an ETH mainnet.
They're secured by chain link data feeds.
Uma's oval protocol will allow these protocols to reduce their
Mev theft burden by 90 percent with no code changes required.
And he's just pointing out like how the moat for chain link
is increasing because, you know, between CCIP and the price
feeds and things, it's becoming sort of like a necessary feature
for a half decent blockchain.
So if you have like a blockchain and you have an
incorporated chain link, you're just kind of like.
I don't know, it's not as good of a blockchain at that point.
And like and serious money is just simply not going to go there.
And the people that can afford to pay the fees for chain link
or what have you are probably going to be the ones of the
much higher TVL and a lot of money flowing through.
And yeah, it's an interesting feedback loop with it.
The only problem is I don't see how that equates to price
action. So if we're looking at it from, you know, a purely
speculative perspective, how in the fuck is that going to
make chain links price go up?
I mean, yeah, it's like you're right.
Like to some extent, infrastructure plays like nobody
People are using those protocols and historically the
sort of like, what is it called?
The picks and shovels type plays, infrastructure plays
in general don't do as well as a lot of other
like the actual protocols themselves in terms of
pumpamentals. But at the same time, it creates a moat
where the price of link is going to create a floor and
it's going to be one of these things that's not going
to zero. And the farther and farther it goes out and
the bigger and bigger the infrastructure get, the less
likely it goes to zero, the more likely big money is
going to jump in, meaning not like random retards like,
you know, like us buying like little bits of chain
link. We're talking about like hedge funds and
whoever they're going to put gigantic amounts of
money in of other people's money. And by these
things, that chance increases the more safe
something is perceived and the more network effect
they have, the more users using that product or
protocols, whatever, right? So I don't think it's
like generally is not one of those that I put a
bunch of money in as like a giga narrative play,
although that'd be awesome, too. I put it in
because like at these levels, I find that it's
acceptably safe as far as like, you know, I'm
comfortable being a bag holder at these levels.
Does that make sense? Like, that's the reason I
got it. Of course, it does risk reward, especially
when you already have a ton of capital, which, you
know, you do. Yeah, the goal here is not like I
don't like it. 10 X's would be awesome. If it
reacts as though it's still awesome. If it
doesn't go down by more than 50%, it's still
awesome. Yeah, we live in different worlds, my
friend. And you know, the thing is, I think it
will, though. Here's the thing, like, look at
changing volatility. If you bought a 17, you're
already kind of pissed at 14. But a little bit.
Yeah, but it's not it's not as volatile as it
was last season. There would be any advantage
to chain link. Remember, last season, it was
like 20 to seven. Remember? Oh, my God. Yeah.
It took my ass out. Yeah, got you exactly. 25 to
seven, man. 25 average to seven. Now, this time,
the bottom line with chain link is just like,
don't get the don't get fucking shook, check it
out. It's simple as that, because like, really,
the probability of uptrend is good. And it's
like, you know, it's like, it's it's among the
safer place now, where before it was purely
speculative, at least now, all these different
components like CCIP and staking and whatever,
they will like, it's clear that the company is
going the right direction to bring shareholder
value to the token holder. Right. Whereas like
before, it was like, what the fuck is the token
for? Like, who needs this? I have the same
questions. I'm like, what, like, it's
speculative. It's great. But like, like, you
know, what's the value of curl mechanism here?
You know, you get that right, you do that
right curve on it. And you're like, what the
fuck's going on? Like, what is this thing going
to have value? And then now they're bringing
that. So I'm glad like, the company, the team,
whatever they're looking after, like they're
thinking about their fiduciary duty to the
token holder, like think like similar stock
market, you know, like a company would do
that. And so hopefully that's like, hopefully
that's meaningful over the time. I think
they're doing more and more to to benefit
the coin, hopefully. And like these new
systems, right, they're actually going to
generate revenue. And with chain link, the
link token being for the gas token for all of
this, that might bring additional, like,
because it creates economic activity where the
coin is used for something. And the more of
that that happens, the more chain link tokens
are floating around sitting in protocols,
wallets, because the protocols had to pay in
link tokens, or in the background, link has to
be swapped for these various assets. And it
adds capital velocity and economic activity,
and that creates a floor price. Remember,
ETH dropped 95%. And then it double dumped to
that level with the COVID dump, and still
like, had a gigantic 5000% up move. And what
was what was Solanas dropped this time
around? Oh, good question. Well, Solanas
with a total of taking care of your
community, right? I think that's, that's
something I learned by a lot of these
projects here. I mean, Solanas dumped from
like $259.90 to $9 to like nine bucks or
eight bucks or something. $8 what I have on
right? I have $8. Let's kind of get this
right here. Let's see. So that represents a
drop of 96.9%. Oh, my god. It's well
fucking deserved to with all of their
minting of tokens. You know, yeah. No, and a
lot of people got wrecked that, you know,
well, first off, the vast majority, if you
look at the volume, and actually, we put it
pull it up here. The biggest volume bars
for Solano, let's see where they were. They
were like some of the largest volume was
like, maybe sub $45 to like the range of
about $22. So a lot of people bought this
coin pretty high. So when it went down to
eight bucks, like most holders were
basically wrecked and probably a lot of
people sold and panicked as well. Because
they're like, oh, FTX, whatever. Yeah, I
don't think there was I don't think
there was a more flooded project
between like November of 2022. And in
early January, right? Like, I mean, dude,
so yeah, well, they went from being
like the golden child because they were
benefiting from FTX and Alameda's, you
know, connections to being the devil
because they're going to do the same
Yeah, let's see how that let's see how
that release schedule works for them
going forward. I honestly don't think we
see so I know you bought Solana at 103
but I don't I don't think we see it
go much further than its prior high.
Well, actually, what I did with it was,
I bought some more when it dipped to
like 90. And then it went back up
again, and I kind of broke even. And I
exited and just moved it to chain
link. Like, I was like, fuck this.
I'm not the one at these levels. No,
so I just sort of like broke even and
left. Because I again, it could run it
could make it to higher highs. One is
it could, but the market cap would be
astronomical. I mean, the thing would
be it'd be above where it is now,
wouldn't it? So it have to get to sort
of like, yeah, it sort of has to get
to eat level penetration. The
problem is like, there isn't nearly
as much TVL and Solana to support
that. So it makes no sense at all.
Like Solana probably makes sense at
current at current Mac market cap,
maybe, maybe. But even the like,
blows relatively speaking to eat,
right? So like, I don't know. I
mean, I mean, most things do outside
of, I guess cosmos is pretty all
right for that, right? Cosmos. Okay.
Yeah. Kijira makes a good argument
Even although they're kind of okay,
the lending bar and club calls are
whatever. And like perps, you know,
like, because dy dx is opening a
cosmos chain, that brings sort of
perps and Levana started doing perps.
But really, like, cosmos did not
have a lot of exciting shit to do
for a while, like until recently,
really. So, you know, cosmos had a
lot of random defy chains, but
not not a lot of great protocols.
They have a ton of random defy
chains right now. It honestly feels
a little bit saturated. And
that's the one worry I have
about the Shido project that I
was talking about, you know, I
mean, that's, that's such an
overplayed narrative now, because
defy summer was such a big thing.
I like about chain link is like
it benefits from all these
chains doing well. And all of all
chains benefit from incorporating
CCIP. But like, it's hard to
get the first mover advantage of
the base layer that link is
creating, like, pyth network and
whoever else, I just don't think
they're going to get to this, this
level because chain link has been
working on this CCIP shit for like
what, two, three years now. So
it's taken a while to bring this
to fruition. And the fact that
you're seeing all the developments
now, is like now, the price
hasn't caught up to how much cool
shit it does compared to what
everyone else's stuff does,
right? I mean, if you think
about it like this way, links
basic market cap is only like
3x of Monero right now. It's
pretty low. And link is another
one of those coins, by the way,
it's available on every exchange
on the planet. And it has no
FUD in the sense that like,
SEC never went after them. And
actually really surprising.
It's shocking. Yeah, like they
should be first on the list
almost. Like, look at their
that's why they're taking
better care of the community now
because they they know they
Exactly. No, I mean, that that
absolutely is smart. Like, do
your fiduciary duty for fuck's
sake, you know, bring, bring
value to the token holders as
Yeah, I think maybe they're
banking on that ETF to, you
know, ETF for chain link. So
I think Solana is going to have
a real hard time with that,
especially after their bullshit.
But the thing is, like, so once
CCIP brings in like, they bring
the real world assets or they
bring in, you know, like sort of
like, here's the other thing
about you could actually bring
in like ETF BTC pairings into
chain link, you don't have to
bring in BTC native. Because
you already have a place that's
regulated, you can bring that in
right. So it's like the other
interesting thing about CCIP
stuff is it's also natively
anti mev. Right, because it's
not this stuff is not happening
directly on chain. So you can't
forecast like, you know, you
can't rip off people like you do
now. So it's like, I just can't
see a world where like, the
regular open blockchains is
where you're gonna trade fucking
anything just makes no sense.
At scale, it doesn't make
sense. Like you have to have
those zk layers and all that
stuff. And the cool thing about
having these extra execution
automation stuff is that you can
run the privacy layers on the on
the side, you don't have to have
blockchain necessarily. So if you
that's exactly what I was
saying earlier about real world
assets that like, like things
like that are going to happen
on chain, it's going to have
to happen on some, some kind of
a privacy layer. So there's some
Yeah, semi private, semi public,
or at least it's privacy, you
can have privacy when you need
it when you don't, you don't.
Yeah, the problem is we need the
powers that be realized that
privacy is actually necessary. It
can't just be totally open and
100% in their control, right? I
Oh, they know this, like,
do they because they're really
Now, the they is usually like
the Elizabeth Warren retards,
like, there's always someone in
government that's a statist, like
the type of person who wants big
government who wants like, who
feels like there's a government
solution to every problem. Oh, we
have to solve all the money
launderers and whatever, whatever. I
get it. I understand why they
want to do all that. But the
extent that you're willing to go
to subjugate, you know, add
rules and regulations, at least
in the last 20 to 30 years,
legalese and excess regulations
have gone completely haywire to
the point where like, you
know, it's all you you're a
criminal and also no matter what
you do, like, we probably have
said some criminal things today
without even knowing it. So the
thing is like when you have so
that sort of system is always
there. But there are, there's
definitely those in government
that are not interested in that
automatic that everyone does. So
you'd hope that cooler heads
prevail and you don't have a
fucking Nazi totalitarian state
at some stage. But but yeah,
that all of the the idea that
like politicians don't want
their privacy, of course they
do. And they know that their
families are in want privacy,
right? Don't automatically
assume that politicians aren't
people like people just act like
people. And they know that if
they have no privacy, that they
can't make all their illicit
There's a tendency for a certain
type of person more often. And
sorry, there's a proclivity for
certain people to be a certain
way to be a politician, you
know, and right, I'm not sure
that they necessarily see that
far in front of them. Yeah,
it's like the political phenotype.
That goes into that that tend to
be more status. Yeah, just just
in the same like libertarians
do not run for office very
often. No. Yeah. Well, that's
because there aren't there
aren't that many of you know,
it's no, it's the nature of
libertarian. It's like leaving the
fuck alone. I'll leave you
alone. Why would you then go
to join government? It's kind
of interesting that that's how
our government was formed in the
first place, you know, it's
such it's such an anomaly. But
speaking of that tendency, man,
surgeons tend to be people who
take extreme risks. So I mean,
you know, all this is kind of
Degenerate gambling surgeons on
gamble away. We're having fun.
Anyone want to come hang out,
feel free. Tell me some more
Everyone's get a link hard on.
You do have a link hard on.
opportunity. What's going on
with Bruce with this? This
Luna shit. I mean, his his
completely ape shit. Like, I
don't even I don't even know
what to fucking think about it
anymore. It's so totally off
Yeah, it's amazing, right?
Hmm, the the bandwidth that
he has for trolling is is just
unbelievable. I mean, I swear to
God, he's like one of the OG
like four chant trolls that I
grew up with that corrupted me
when I was in middle school
and high school. That's that's
got to coach Bruce. Yeah.
He's listening. No, he's not.
Max bros like inverse head and
shoulders on link. Anything
under 50 is a legendary buy and
agree. It'd be. Yeah, I think
like, like linked to 50 bucks
is the easy part. That's sort
of the that's like, you know,
getting back to prior high and
any resistance is kind of like
straightforward, relatively
speaking. At a base case, I
think that would likely happen.
What a chain link today say
we're excited to see the next
gen apps the developers can
build on base using advanced
off chain compute capabilities
automation. Automation will
unlock innovative use cases on
base. Yeah, that sort of game
I've been thinking of creating
too. I believe chain link CCIP
is probably where I'd have to
interesting here is like chain
link has automations on the
one hand has oracles. So you
can make you can make events
in a game based on Oracle
other. You have the verifiable
randomness. So the VR module
or whatever for chain link, you
can bring in random numbers in
so you can. And then if they
incorporate privacy also, then
example, a poker hand, where
it's private until you show
your hand, right? So that has
to be a capability. You can't
they're using centralized
systems to solve for that.
Because that computation or
somewhere. Or the CCIP, you
could be guaranteed protocols
work with like Rollbit and
Well, Rollbit, I don't know
everyone has their different way
of doing on chain randomness.
In fact, there's a new cosmos
protocol, the cosmos chain
called noise and I asked it
just released like it's just
noise is basically about the
ability to bring on chain
randomness into a into your
cosmoism chain. You I guess
it's using IBC or something
messaging service to get on
chain randomness from noise
protocol and bring it into
your chain. The thing about
CCIP is for chain link, it
modules already. So now you
have randomness, which you
basically the rolling a dice
essentially, right? It has
randomness, it has the cross
chain protocol to take assets
automation, which means they
can keep on adding more and
more automations. It's almost
like think about cosmoism,
but imagine that being done
that creates an execution
layer you can run parts of
you're not going to want to
like run all this on chain,
you're going to want to run
computation is fast and cheap,
right? So and then you have
chain links and be able to
which is on chain compute,
whatever service is on. So
framework, you have a way to
connect all sorts of assets
together in a gigantic sort
of Internet. And so I don't
I think their goal, which is
basically to sort of like be
the underlayer of everything.
simply cannot do this. In
Ethereum can't do this now
unless they're coming up with
some miracle that I'm not
whatever. And pretty much
every blockchain winds up
Scalability is is hard and
problems, and even if you
go to proof of stake, you
have problems and you can
parallel parallelize things
and create layer twos, but
then you get centralization.
the other basically like it
case for say, Ethereum would
pumps because people invest
something that's going to
blockchains will translate
chain link to anyway, but
assets can couple the gold
and USDC or whatever. You
value might be on Solana,
secure the value of, say,
your protocols. Like, you
can basically use CCIP in
all these other shit. And
cosmwasm. Like eventually
dApp or your project. And
incorporated it. And Avax's
parachains. They're called
subnets. Avax subnets were
fast and therefore you're
able to like make a subnet
avalanche, that means any
you have let's see parallel
finance, Kobo, Cozyverse,
cluster, lie dot phi. I'm
incorporated into avalanche
Let me see. There's about
just scrolling through to
ecosystem to tell you like.
different avalanche projects
components of chain link.
using data feeds. Some of
connectivity. Some of them
are using VRF. So there's
using the on chain random
see who else float called
and they're using VRF via
randomness part of it. So
a lot of these protocols,
like and then a lot of the
feeds for different assets
blockchain middleware. Yeah,
this list. They just have
we can tell, avalanche is
has it. Is it on main net
someone has I don't think
it is either. So a lot of
probably works. Otherwise,
CCIP. They probably don't
give any guarantees. It's
here. See what else is in
point is like what's cool
probably add other things
like data availability and
The point is there's like
essentially. You know, six
shit. The reality is it's
biggest news organization
Chainlink being a layer two
It's never been. It's not
coin standard. So it's not
running on Ethereum at all.
just secures the value of
gotcha. That's that's all
it is. Everything else is
ecosystem is using Binance
the node operator and the
looking to see like who's
might recognize. Vodafone
IQT? Let me see what that
means. Oh, IOT. I'm sorry.
they're, but no, oh, it's
the integrations that from
modularizing the different
automations and stuff. And
if you're you're producing
a protocol of some kind or
a video game or whatever,
resources at your disposal.
we're used to things like
Cosm, Wasm and EVM. Whereas
programming language. You
flexible. Um, yeah, a lot
integrated CCIP to unlock
cross chain yield vaults.
taught last time I did an
strategy is. And they try
to make you money by sort
background and letting you
basically attracting that
based assets, essentially
the demand was and that's
interesting. Um, but like
like, it's, it's, they're
Okay. Um, synergy AI, the
the various products that
These are the six sort of
people. I don't know what
programming interface, but
like, how do you use this?
Swift banking is actually
look, let me look up what
interface thing. Um, okay.
documentation, connecting
through our decentralized
smart contracts compatible
the complexity of building
requirements yet unbounded
blah. So what does it say
here? As far as like, what
connect to, or can you just
have it connect to any API
contracts on any blockchain
can connect to any API by
link oracles. Okay, there
It's like, um, think about
your tax software or think
about your like, coinly or
connect to the API of let's
programming interface. You're
the idea is like you could
connect, you know, you could
create like a, a software
that does API calls off of
software, other platforms
chain link job specs. See
sorts of complicated like
fucking graphics and shit.
wrap your head on what the
perform unique new actions
such as connecting a Tesla
authenticating your Reddit
basically any website, any
service provider that has
to that and like have data
make its trusted economic
enabling smart contracts on
API's real world data. By
blockchain environments of
external data, Associated
a sports betting platform
verified stats of players
platform or whatever will
shit. Same thing with the
randomness, like you need
kind of interesting stuff
So, for example, if you're
for example, and, you know,
that with with randomness.
there's different websites
how to do this and create a
tamper resistant randomness
deciding dynamic NFT images.
Yep, a lot of cool stuff.
sort of big computational
real assets or anything else.
I believe, is going to be
sort of universal gas tokens.
being universal gas token.
from the November 13, 2023.
Link to be universal gas token.
Navarov says link could be
token for the digital asset
the complexity for paying
networks to get paid in link.
you're using your sole tokens,
the native tokens of your blockchain.
You don't want to figure out
how to pay in link, right?
Your protocol wants to pay
this person's paying Solana.
Because it's fucking chainlink.
It knows what the price is, right?
the exact spot price of Solana.
between your Solana token.
And depending on what the price of,
the node service or Oracle
service that you're trying
What will happen in the background
is is your Solana will be converted.
And that person can be paid
in USDC or in link or whatever.
And if the node operators
in the ecosystem all run on link,
then that means that it'll
convert to link in the background
the protocol does not need to know
how the link token works.
Once you're a CCIP chain,
your coin and link are interchangeable
And that's another magical property of CCIP.
Think about like if you've used Osmosis
and how all of the tokens
in Osmosis are paired with Osmo tokens.
So Osmo becomes kind of like
for all the different coins.
So you don't have to have a different.
You don't have to have pairs for everything.
So, for example, if you go to a normal DEX,
you'll have like the ETH BTC pair,
you'll have the BTC USD pair,
you'll have the ADAM ETH pair
what's different is is like
that's a DEX where everything's
paired with the Osmo token.
And so like if you want to do
a transfer from ADAM to BTC,
you'd go ADAM to Osmo to BTC.
And it's like that's the sort of chain
you go through for everything.
That ensures that there's sufficient
liquidity for every possible coin
With CCIP, with Chainlink,
But with Link in the background
and in this case, you actually don't need.
You don't need a gigantic amount
of parked liquidity in the CCIP system
because there is any amount of Link
that's necessary like in billions of market cap.
And you know, you can go transfer between them
without a full on DEX because you know
you're going to get proper prices
because the Chainlink Oracle
is going to give you the proper price data.
You don't have to have like a traditional AMM
the way you have it on a blockchain now.
So you'll always get the correct price
because you have Chainlink connected directly.
And so in the background,
like you're using your Solana tokens,
you're buying ETH, but in the background,
like the services that are underlying
all this shit are being paid in Link.
And your coins, your fees are being paid out
by being converted to Link at the market price
So that's really interesting
because unlike other utility tokens
like Render or Akash or some other shit,
when the price of the token goes up,
and when the price of the token goes down,
you can buy less services.
With an Oracle service baked in,
you can have a stable coin price
but you wind up paying it in Link
So if the node operator needs $2 per transaction,
then at the time Link is worth $4,
then it's going to detect that
and it's only going to sell two of your Link
to pay for the particular fee.
Whereas because it has an Oracle service,
it knows the spot price of Link
It knows the spot price of your coin
or whatever your coins are
And the reason it knows all this
has already been integrated with CCIP.
That means that the system
in the background already
is watching the Oracle price of both coins
and allows you to swap them
at the market rate without an extra DEX.
That's pretty powerful shit.
It's kind of barest for DEXs though.
end up working as expected,
then DEXs won't be nearly as useful
the Thorchain narrative, doesn't it?
Yeah, see, that's what I was thinking about.
it thrives in the fact that it's connecting
a lot of high liquidity UTXO tokens
sort of Bitcoin and things of that nature.
It does reduce Thorchain's narrative somewhat though.
If CCIP works as intended,
there will be less and less reasons
is truly like a winner take all thing.
ICP with Cosmos, I'm sorry,
Cosmos was working on it to some extent with IBC,
although I think it's not as ambitious
I think Chainlink's version is like IBC squared.
Like it could be a lot better.
I don't know the nuances, the tech nuances.
I don't wanna like overplay this,
but it's quite possible that
with all of these different features
being baked into the system that,
so here's the thing Drew,
it's like if the DEXs become less interesting,
what makes you think layer ones in general
are gonna be very interesting at that point?
So it's like you have this,
so this is what's really, really bullish about Chainlink.
If it goes the way that NavRoc thinks it'll go,
it connects everything, it's such a magnitude.
How many people here are using
the non-TCIP based internet,
Like you and I could connect our computers together
using an ethernet cable, right?
We don't have to go on the broad internet.
But how many people do that?
Yeah, now to the extent that
even if you and me are in the same fucking room,
we'll connect to the internet
and then connect to each other.
We don't even bother connecting our computers direct.
Right, like that's how pervasive that became.
And if all of these protocols
and ecosystems and purpose protocols, whatever,
if they incorporate CCIP,
like that'd be like building a Blu-ray player
without a fucking HDMI port on it.
Like what were you planning to connect to a TV with?
So it's a very much a winner take all thing.
Like if Chainlink gets its way,
get everyone's fucking stuck with Chainlink
I mean, if that isn't a case
for a multi-trillion dollar market cap,
then I don't know what is.
Exactly, that's why the people that look at this shit,
they're like, oh, Chainlink's going to a thousand.
I'm telling you, that's those people.
Yeah, I mean, I just don't see how it could in this run.
But I mean, when you talk about those things,
it's gotta happen at some point.
Well, the arguments that DTCC
like moves trillions of dollars at a time.
Swift moves like five trillion dollars a day.
And then like people may start making the arguments,
well, if only a fraction of that comes to our thing.
I mean, is it possible that we only go up
to like a hundred dollars in this bull run?
it just explodes for like, you know,
$1,400 a link at a, what market cap would that be?
Yeah, almost a trillion dollar market cap
and an 800 billion dollar market cap.
I mean, that wouldn't follow the price action
that we've seen on like every single project, right?
Where it's diminishing returns.
You know, I'm just trying to balance that out in my head,
you know, from a purely like speculative like chart view
and it's actual like real.
Yeah, is this the apple of blockchain?
Is the question you're really ultimately asking?
You know, is it that level of like deep integration
where everyone wants to have their dApps
and everything connected to it?
Right, like at this point,
like if you're building any sort of ecosystem,
you're basically trapped with creating an app
for maybe Microsoft, Google, Apple
and maybe some Linux thing, right?
Like how many different places are you gonna put apps?
Like how many different cross chain protocols
do you really expect protocols and dApps to implement?
Like one, maybe two, right?
You know, so you're EVM compatible.
Maybe you're, I don't know, like TC,
you're IBC compatible and maybe you're CCIP compatible
Not to mention the more of these you have,
the more you have like, you know,
fucked up assets flooding all over the place
that like get fragmented, right?
Yeah, it's definitely gonna be a like a consolidation
of really all blockchain activity.
I'm not sure I like that, you know, in theory though.
That's the thing, like there's just some extent
like the Cypherpunk is in your saying basically like,
I don't really want all that shit.
And I'd rather have my little circle of friends
and like, you know, we have our little, you know,
like we have our little token that goes up
Like, you know, at some level it's like, you know,
do you really want all the normies involved
and do you want all these people?
So people say mass adoption, but they don't really mean it.
Like, you know what I mean?
Like they like the idea that like,
people are gonna come to buy their bags
and they're the OGs that start out in the very beginning.
It's almost like if you're the first fans of-
Yeah, because it's the validation.
It's like you're the first fans of,
yeah, exactly, you're the first fans
of Taylor Swift or some shit.
And she goes kind of wild and like,
oh, I was there at the beginning.
I was an OG, you know, that kind of feel.
I was just telling my friends the same thing
about a meme channel on Instagram earlier today.
I've been following it since 10,000.
That's exactly what it is.
Yeah, congratulations, you've earned nothing,
but a little bit of validation, little dopamine rush, so.
I guess it is the logical end, right?
I mean, you know, if this is the future
and everyone's saying it is, right?
Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon even, you know, that douche bag.
That is the logical end, right?
Everything will consolidate into the most useful and-
Hold up, Jaz, were you trying to say something?
Yeah, yeah, your mic's on.
Yeah, so I've actually thought about this point a lot
and it's one that I think other folks have made points around.
But like, basically, the reason I can see the-
Drew, I think you had an interesting point there
about the price action to where it's like,
Does it go to like 90 bucks
and then the next one go to like 1,500 bucks?
Is that even the realm of possibility?
And for like the main reason,
that link is not a token for retail.
Like it's basically the antithesis of a retail token
just because like quite literally the,
like what they're doing is too gigabrand for anyone
to like just look at it and like understand it.
So what's, like, this is,
what my opinion, what's gonna happen
is once the switch is actually flipped
from like a cashflow standpoint,
basically that's when lots and lots of like,
institutional type oriented people will try to get in
on the token for the staking returns.
Like so, and so basically like my time horizon
on that switch actually being flipped.
like when the DTC starts processing,
DCCC starts processing tons of transactions through there
and banks and like all of these asset managers
like from a tokenization standpoint,
like basically whenever all that starts to happen,
that's when I think that the token's really gonna moon
in price because again, I don't think,
fundamentally it's really token for retail.
I think it's those looking for like a claim
on the digital asset real estate landscape.
Like I think that's literally what link represents.
And so I could see a scenario again,
where it's like, hey, maybe that switch isn't flipped
realistically for another three, four years,
maybe it moves quicker than that, maybe not.
But you know, once that point hits
and there's actual utility and if this undergirds
like the next iteration of the internet,
yeah, I mean, I think we see $1,000 link
at that point or $1,200 link or whatever.
So that's my thesis around it.
Yeah, another thing too is like to Drew's concern,
like, well, like, you know,
does it lose its freshness at some point?
Is it like, does it become, you're like fighting the man,
but then that, you know, that becomes the man,
so to speak, like it becomes the new sort of norm
That's possible, but at the same time,
like we're all playing on the internet,
like, you know, like how rebellious are we?
It's not like we're living off the grid.
We're not like we're living off the grid
killing beer and shit and surviving.
I mean, the reality is sometimes
we're all in the matrix already in a sense.
Yeah, I mean, it's true and in the flips,
again, the flip side is that while yes,
link price action may be unsexy for a little while
and it's, I personally don't think
it's gonna outperform much this coming both.
The thing is, I don't wanna try to gamble
and like do a whole bunch of like fancy swing trades
and stuff, that's just not my style.
What I would rather do is I wanna wait for the market
And again, the thing, we talk about narratives a lot, right?
Like everything that pumps
has some kind of like speculative narrative around it.
Chainlink, when that switches flip,
it's not gonna need that and that's the whole point, right?
Once those returns and the framework is there
and the structure is there to where the token
accrues value regardless of how anyone feels about it
or whatever narrative is floating around,
that's when you're gonna see the price really,
I think explode and it's gonna be tied to actual,
something you can map on paper from a return standpoint.
Yeah, actually to your, sorry, man,
to your point, the claim on future real estate
of the financial landscape,
I think that's exactly what it is.
So I mean, the big players, the majority holders
are gonna have a say in how decisions are made
on that network in the future
and that's exactly what they're purchasing with Chainlink.
One of the things like with crypto though,
is remember that one of the reasons why it's important
for number to go up as far as price
is because it generates attention
and when people feel like,
oh, this is becoming the next big thing,
then developers start saying,
oh, wait a minute, we should be paying attention to that.
So it's like a weird situation with crypto.
It's a little bit different than,
so like, for example, with Apple or something,
the more iPhones they get used,
the more they sell, the more revenue they generate
and the price goes up and P to E ratios start to fall
and the price goes up again, right?
Whereas in crypto, it's a little bit different
in that the product to some degree is the token
and when number goes up, that validates people
and they think, oh, this is a great thing
and then developers and everybody else is like,
oh, this isn't going to zero.
The price validates its worthiness to some extent.
What is the market price this as?
And for the developer side of it,
they're not in it to speculate to buy the bottom
and sell the top, they're saying to themselves,
okay, wait, does the market price validity
into this chain link thing?
That's one thing and two,
because who wants to build for a fucking ecosystem
that goes to zero at some point?
Like, if you look back in tech history,
the people that were starting to build things
Like, whoops, wrong platform or whatever, right?
Or who had building things for ColecoVision or some shit.
Whatever game platforms that just disappeared into oblivion.
You as a developer choosing the wrong platform
makes or breaks your ass, right?
It totally makes or breaks entire companies
like that literally go to zero if you chose the wrong one
and you chose the losing one.
So it's interesting how the development
like in any given layer one ecosystem,
like those folks that are spending a year or two or three
building out some DeFi protocol or whatever,
they're really nervous that like
people aren't gonna show up three years later.
And I think with Chainlink,
they're building a large enough, wide enough net
and they bring in enough folks at once
which again adds like mental validity to the whole thing.
Then it's like, okay, every other developer is gonna say,
hey, we need to be in that ecosystem, right?
We need to incorporate CCIP and all that.
So it's like you get a FOMO for the platform
that's about to take off.
Like you don't wanna miss being, if you're a developer,
you wanna be early on the next apple.
And you wanna grow with that.
And what you're saying is that going concern
is almost always the biggest consideration
when it comes to any crypto protocol, right?
Which I totally agree with, right?
It's like, I think you've made this point before Sephi,
but if you look at pretty much every single protocol
out there, Chainlink arguably has the best path
to a sustainable future, right?
I think based upon the development they're doing,
the partnerships they've made,
the how sticky they've made themselves
in existing DeFi infrastructure,
let alone infrastructure through TradFi
that's yet to come and all that.
And so again, from my perspective,
I can wait on a speculative premium, right?
I don't think there's hardly any speculative premium
built into the price right now,
but when it does come, I think it's gonna come huge.
And from a pure technical perspective,
Chainlink isn't going anywhere.
They've taken the time to build a foundation
that is the network effects and all that,
that's gonna be around for,
as far as we can see into the future,
as long as blockchain tech stays relevant, you know, so.
The other thing too is like,
it's always hard to know who's gonna be their competitor
That's always, because anything that gets big enough
and there's enough liquidity in,
an argument can be made that like, I don't know,
Amazon could create something similar or whoever,
at least like these guys have somewhat of a headstart.
We don't know what projects
maybe some of the gig of corporations are
sort of running in the background
that might be theoretical.
And it's like Chainlink's open source, right?
So it's like, to your point,
perhaps all that would be necessary
is for like a Google or an Amazon,
just to throw a fuck ton of money at it
and then maybe they can, you know, somewhat copy.
Again, I think given some of Chainlink's partnerships
and some of the relationships they've built,
which is very hard to put a price tag on,
I don't necessarily see that as a huge risk,
At least on the, call it crypto native side of things,
I don't see that happening just because...
with it being a bit of a more of a dark horse,
it's like a small player,
it probably won't scare people.
Imagine like Microsoft wanting to be the back end for Swift.
People be like, wait a minute, what the fuck, right?
They're gonna be like, even regulators and stuff,
these guys have a big enough monopoly as it is.
So it's almost good that they're small,
relative to like the giants in tech, right?
So maybe that's a plus, I don't know.
Cause they're not like already world leading companies.
So it's like, there's, you know,
people don't know them in like the global thing.
And so they're less afraid maybe, I don't know.
Yeah, I'd argue that down the road,
that could be kind of a hamstring though,
because I mean, it's not like
they're sufficiently decentralized.
Well, see that, it's interesting you mentioned that,
cause that was actually gonna be my very next point
in terms of being defensively neutral
or how we verify me neutral, whatever you wanna call it.
That a lot of people think of Chainlink
as like this big monolithic company,
but in reality, there are over a thousand
decentralized node operators that they have.
And anybody can set up their own set of nodes, right?
So it's not like you have to have permission.
It's not getting into the ecosystem by producing nodes.
I don't think that's a permission.
So it's interesting cause running an Oracle node is,
there is obviously like more complexity to it
than just like spinning up like an F node
or validator or whatever right there.
Cause in terms of the data you have to provide and stuff,
it's a bit of a higher standard.
It's almost like you're running,
Chainlink got us use this analogy,
but it's almost like you're kind of like
an independent contractor in some ways.
So I know that in terms of getting into it,
sometimes or if not a lot of the time,
Chainlink Labs will like help people spin up,
you don't have to like sign a business agreement
They will support people in spinning up nodes,
but independent operators can spin up nodes.
And like I said, there are over a thousand now
and that number is only gonna continue to grow.
I think that's gonna become pretty defensible.
Cause even if someone like Amazon or Google,
you know, throws a bunch of money at it,
by the time, you know, Chainlink scales
to thousands and thousands of nodes,
that's gonna be pretty credibly decentralized.
Cause so for example, take Swift for example,
they may not wanna be on public nodes
They might wanna run their own nodes
and they're gonna provide like their data
Those nodes then pull that into CCIP
and then off you go with like the ability to do like
maybe Fiat transfers or something into CCIP
or somehow or something like that.
So you wind up with like these systems
that don't have to be fully like,
you don't give up your sovereignty
as a corporation entirely to Chainlink.
That's not what's going on.
It's similar to how like you could run,
say for example, your computing architecture
for your corporation, you can run them on AWS,
oh fuck, these guys are too expensive.
You can always move to Amazon Azure
or like Microsoft Azure or somebody else, right?
So to some extent, like I think like,
to my understanding, Chainlinks allows you
to preserve that, like you're using that protocol
but you have your autonomy as a corporation.
It wouldn't be that different from like,
if you're building Apple TV
and it connects with an HDMI cable,
the people that produce the HDMI cable
don't give a fuck what you build on your Apple TV.
You could put video games down there.
All they're doing is providing a way
for you to connect to your television set.
Similarly, like Chainlink could be construed
And then it's like, once you've built that out,
like, okay, how does that then train?
And if you're actually set up in such a way
that's fairly neutral, that anyone can do this,
any corporation can do this,
then they don't feel like,
then they feel like they're just getting into almost like,
well, it's like picking a programming language
It has nothing to do with like you losing sovereignty
and therefore like giving up power to somebody,
And that was a big focus of the most recent SmartCon
and I'm sure, you know, events to come from them,
which is like, they're building out these interfaces
and marketplaces and such to where not only, you know,
will I be able to like shop around for nodes
that meet my exact requirements
based upon the services that I'm trying to obtain
and the security I wanna guarantee
based upon the amount of link staked
or collateral staked with that particular node operator.
But I'll also be able to spin up my own nodes.
So to your point, Cynthia, it's like,
okay, if I'm a giant institution
and I have folks with the technical wherewithal
to, you know, spin up nodes
that meet my service requirements,
I think you could feasibly spin those up,
select those as the ones you wanna use
and then, you know, keep it somewhat in-house
if that was really a desire
and, you know, retain some sovereignty over it,
but still use the infrastructure
that everyone else is using, right?
If this thing becomes ubiquitous,
it's gonna, like the point y'all were making earlier
where it's like it'll be like choosing not to use TCPIP,
you know, no one's gonna do, not gonna do that, so.
Yeah, it's like, and so I think Chainlink
has built a system and a strategy
that's like played out over a number of years.
And it's not that easy to replicate it quickly,
I would think, although they have sort of like,
if it's open source, they have sort of laid out
the groundwork pretty quickly.
But at the same time, like the system as it stands,
people sort of trust the link token to some extent
and it's got a certain market cap,
so there's like a secured value there.
And for someone to come and like copy that,
CCIP basically uses link as a universal gas token.
where are you gonna have another token
as a universal gas token?
Who's gonna be using that token now?
So network effect of the original token
is important for people to trust that in the background,
And some other tokens like ETH and whatnot
may not be what you'd wanna use in a system like this
for various reasons, I don't know.
Maybe it's like fees or whatever other problems it has.
So yeah, a lot of interesting takes here,
but have you seen any particular
in corporations that you think are likely to happen?
Have you seen, between Swift and this DTCC thing,
have you seen either of those, any alpha
as far as how much they're implementing,
what kind of timescales they're looking at?
Is one of these likely to happen or what?
I mean, probably not any more than you guys
in terms of like timeframe, right?
I, again, link is like a realistically at-
Or have you seen anything?
Or heard anything at the conference.
The stuff that's interesting to me,
and this is the kind of stuff I've linked to different friends,
is stuff around asset tokenization.
Now, obviously that's like a buzzword,
but a lot of people don't understand,
Number two, the demand that exists for it, right?
And so like different, you know,
big four firms have done surveys,
like EY did a survey this past summer,
other big asset managers and, you know,
finance firms basically have done surveys of,
you know, like I said, fund managers,
high net worth individuals, et cetera, et cetera,
on the demand for tokenized assets.
And it's definitely a growing trend.
And so, you know, no part of those kind of articles
actually mention chain link by name,
but you start to put two and two together
and you see kind of where the roads are converging.
And, you know, so that's the kind of stuff
And again, a lot of this stuff is stuff,
especially when you're dealing with big institutions,
And so I think that people,
especially in crypto are, I mean,
it's just such people get such microwave mentalities
and half the people that are here
don't even believe it has like a legit long-term future
So it's funny to me that obviously chain link
has kind of a big market cap,
but outside of that, from like a thesis standpoint,
it still feels like we're pretty contrarian
in a lot of ways relative to how the industry as a whole
So yeah, I mean, there's stuff like,
I think some of the stuff that outside of finance
that some people maybe don't appreciate
is stuff like, you know, they just integrated
with Vodafone for, you know,
proof of concepts going on around there
for like internet of things type stuff.
I believe they do some supply chain type stuff too.
I did share the SmartCon 2022 video up top here
And that's with Soleil, who's a Director of Swift,
Strategy Director of Swift,
Sergey Navra, Stephen Prosperi with DTCC
and Victor O'Loughlin with BNY Mellon.
So these are all people at SmartCon.
So they're not really fucking around.
And there's an article here on DTCC's website
from September 21st, so fairly recent by Prosperi,
who's their Executive Director
of Innovation Strategy and Digital Assets.
So they have an entire sector for this fucking thing,
like a section for digital assets.
And what they're saying here is, let's see,
it is increasing, this is on DTCC's website, by the way,
This is like, let me just read it out
because it's interesting.
Increasingly clear that blockchain tech is here to stay
with 97% of institutional investors anticipating
tokenization will evolve asset management processes
and $100 trillion worth of assets in the US
that could someday move on chain.
90% of institutional investors,
I don't know what the source bro is on that one,
but that number sounds kind of interesting.
Rather than embarking on a wholesale rebuild
of existing capital markets infrastructure,
financial institutions are increasingly collaborating
to innovate web three tech platforms,
like Chainlink to explore how capabilities can embedded
into their existing systems where possible
to accelerate real impact on blockchain tech.
Okay, a lot of words to say,
a lot of nothing that we didn't already know.
Exploration to space started
with our collaborative work with Chainlink
as part of Swift's interoperability project.
So DTCC and Swift and this are all one collaboration.
It's not two separate things, that's super interesting.
So the premier financial market infrastructure
provider DTCC automates and standardizes the processing
of financial transaction, mitigating risk,
increasing transparency, enhancing performance
and driving efficiency for thousands of broker dealers,
custodian banks and asset managers around the world.
One of the cornerstones of success for DTCC
and other major financial market infrastructure providers
or FMIs like Swift has been the establishment
of industry standards that allow
for multitude of financial institutions,
operating on disparate systems in different jurisdictions
to conduct business, blah, blah, blah.
So interconnectivity, whatever.
So Swift of course transfers tons of money
and DTCC settles tons of like stocks and bonds and shit.
So what they're saying here is okay,
Chainlink CCIP was used in the backend by Swift
to facilitate secure cross chain messaging
and token transfers while DTCC serve as a token issuer
and central securities depository or CSD.
More specifically, DTCC minted and issued bond tokens
compatible with Chainlink CCIP and distributed them
to Swift's designated test wallets.
Explore the Swift interoperability project
in more detail in the report connecting blockchains
overcoming fragmentation and tokenized assets.
So what he means by that is okay,
so by being a CSD or a central securities depository,
what DTCC basically does is,
so let's say you have Apple and it's on the stock market
and there's like, let's say 1,000 shares of Apple available
or let's say a million, just make it sound right.
So a million shares of Apple available in total.
10 of them go to Fidelity, 50 of them go to BlackRock,
20 of them go to Charles Schwab or whoever else.
And someone's got to keep track of where these things are,
like where they finally settle, like who owns them finally.
And there's a lot of detail that goes into like
making sure there's not duplicates of the same stock
because you can't have two digital copies
of the same Apple stock on two different brokerages, right?
So token fragmentation is this idea that like,
you wanna prevent, you can't just simply
create like a token that emerges on,
well, here's a way to describe fragmentation.
So if you look at Circle and what Tether have done,
They've issued Circle coins on Ethereum.
They've issued Circle coins in Cosmos.
They've issued Circle coins on Avalanche or whatever.
So Circle has gone out of their way to actually produce
and distribute coins on each of those different type
of ledger networks with each of their different
type of programming languages.
And then they finally said, this is bullshit
and Circle themselves made their own protocol
called CC something, something.
It's another four letter acronym.
And that allows you, if you're a chain
and you incorporate that protocol,
you can easily port Circle into your chain
without having to have any proprietary shift
that Circle has to do to sort of set your chain up.
So it creates kind of an easy way to incorporate Circle.
With CCIP, with Chainlink, the difference here is
is that like you wouldn't need that Circle protocol
anymore because like as opposed to a protocol
that only Circle uses and the only purpose
of your chain implementing is to bring USDC in,
the difference here is with CCIP,
you can bring in anything that incorporates a CCIP.
And the benefit here is if DTCC is working
with Chainlink specifically and they're the primary
companies being used to issue and set up digital stocks,
so you take stocks and you tokenize them,
like DTCC probably doesn't wanna work
with a hundred companies to fucking do this
because they're already a central securities depository,
but now they don't wanna have to deal
with like a dozen separate companies
that then deal with a dozen,
millions of separate other crypto projects
because crypto gets fragmented very quickly.
Liquidity fragments across chains,
you'll have your Apple stock flowing from,
you'll have a copy of Apple stock sitting on Ethereum
and then that stock, someone wants to move it to Avalanche,
but now they have to what, bridge it somehow?
Who the fuck's gonna bridge it?
You're gonna send it back to DTCC
and they're gonna bridge it and send it back to it.
The whole thing is a fucking mess.
So what you have to do is you have to have
an interoperability layer to be able
to quickly move from one chain to the other
that's chain agnostic that doesn't require
specialized programming for each chain.
So by, so DTCC is kind of like a transfer language
and it allows like DTCC to know exactly where that coin is
So that token for let's say Apple stock.
of all of the Apple stock we issued in a tokenized manner,
75% of that's currently on Ethereum,
2% is on, you know, the Cosmos Neutron or some shit.
The point is they have a immediate way to scan
and see where all of their coins are
because CCIP keeps track of all that shit.
That's the interesting thing about this.
make them highly liquid across all these chains,
you gotta have a point of control somewhere.
Yep, and then for, you know, some of the big banks,
you know, the city banks,
the JP Morgan's of the world,
which as much as Jamie Dimon is shit talked Bitcoin,
I guess, specifically, he had, you know,
JP Morgan has a huge digital asset division as well.
It's like they're, you know, they're gonna be.
He seems to be a bank organization of assets as well.
Yeah, and based on his comments.
But, you know, they're obviously gonna be interested
in the interoperability stuff as well,
especially since a lot of them at least start
and maybe forever who knows will be, you know,
originating on their own private chain
But in addition to that, you know,
another important aspect for these big firms,
big companies is reducing trust assumptions, right?
if they're gonna be trusting Chainlink
for like the interoperability layer, for instance,
it just makes sense to be using them
and proof of reserve services and other Oracle services, right?
It's like, because of the fact that Chainlink
is building this kind of vertically integrated stack
of services, you know, it's not like these companies,
they're not, because to your point,
they're not gonna wanna say, okay, well, yeah,
we'll use Chainlink for interoperability,
but then, you know, maybe we'll use like Pith
for price feed and like this other, you know,
it's like you have all these like,
I think ultimately gonna be relatively small time players.
Well, remember to make this shape useful,
you have to have both the interoperability layer
and that's exactly right because at any given moment,
you need to, you might need to know the actual global value
of that particular stock across all the different exchanges
And that, and those price speeds travel at the speed of,
you know, a speed of electricity, essentially,
across all these networks and you need those to,
on tap to be able to be within CCIP,
trade your Apple stock for IBM stock.
Or whenever you get more complex smart contract type stuff
like automation triggers, event triggers or whatever.
But yeah, I mean, all that stuff, you know,
if you're to source that from five or six different
providers, you're talking about introducing
So that's like another big appeal, I think,
ultimately of what Chainlink's building.
So the way they describe like the drawing
that they have here with, like that connects all this
is financial institutions use the Swift software
They have their signed blockchain message
You have like transaction status updates
between the various financial institutions and Swift.
And then from Swift, you'd have a signed blockchain
message and metadata go to the Chainlink CCIP,
transaction status updates come back to Swift.
Blockchain transactions head out to the source blockchain,
which would be like an Ethereum or whatever.
And then you have CCIP routers going back and forth
and doing, you know, sending blockchain events
and things back to the Chainlink CCIP system
to sort of like clarify what has happened.
So for example, if you have Apple stock
and it's sitting on, I don't know, let me make up,
like it's sitting on, you know, Kujira network.
So what's gonna happen there is your Apple stock
is going to have several features related to that.
Like it's gonna have, for example,
voting associated with it.
You might have to vote based on your share of Apple stock
when it comes to proxy votes, right?
And you're gonna have dividends have to be distributed.
So like, you know, every quarter Apple distributes dividends.
How the fuck are you gonna get that money now, right?
So that's gotta show up somewhere.
And the ability for the CCIP system to connect back
to DTCC and then issue your dividend with whatever,
you know, is that come in the form of USDC?
Does it come in the form of a CBDC dollar?
I don't know what, but the point is you're gonna need
to get those dividends paid to you.
Then you have syncing of multiple ledgers of record.
Meaning you can't have like one set of information
on Ethereum and another set of information avalanche.
Just like all the other brokerages in the world,
your basic, your blockchains basically become
like brokerages or your dApps at least on them.
And all the price data that comes from that.
So price discovery is happening in these blockchains now
That data has to go back to all the other systems
so that settlement can happen.
And that like the global price of Apple stock is similar
no matter whether you're on Fidelity,
whether you're on all these different exchanges.
So price data feeds is how this information transfers
And then you ultimately know what the price
of that stock is everywhere.
So that you don't have like Apple stock worth $40
on Ethereum and it's worth $100 in Cosmos or something.
And then I think there's another point
they make distributing fund performance data.
So yeah, if you have like ETFs or something
and that data about how that stock or that asset is doing,
how do you get that data, right?
And you'd like to be able to know that data
that way you can use it on chain.
So all these different industry,
they talk about four major industry processes.
Distributing fund performance,
syncing multiple ledgers record, capturing proxy votes
and dividend distribution are the four industry processes
that all of this is designed to streamline pretty much.
And I think like there is a concept
that this needs to be streamlined.
And there's a concept that there's a lot of monetary value
to be unlocked and people want to trade things.
And the ability to do interesting trades
like I wanna trade my Apple stock for Ethereum
or I wanna trade my, or bot trade those things.
There's all sorts of people that wanna
sort of like move assets between different things
but they can't right now.
Or they wanna take the real world asset ideas.
Oh, like, I can get a 5% of my house value
in the tokenized form, maybe not all of it
but I can get a small fraction
and someone's willing to use that,
allow me to use that as collateral somehow.
And as a result, I can now borrow off
and buy Apple stock or something.
To some extent, like real estate in the US at least,
a person's house is in many instances, their biggest asset.
And therefore like their ability to unlock some value
from that without having to get like,
go through a complex process
just to get that capital freed up
is a problem for a lot of people.
In fact, it's such a pain in the ass
that most people don't wanna take a home equity loan
because either the interest rates are too high
or it's just a pain in the fucking ass
like one of the two, but yeah, this is super interesting.
And this is on DTC's website from September 21st.
So again, it's all early stuff.
Like this guy's the executive innovation director
Like maybe not all of this comes to fruition
but the fact that this project
between DTC, Swift and Chainlink,
those are like two giants, right?
Working in collaboration with Chainlink to make this work.
That's a fucking bullish thing, man.
Like that's pretty impressive.
Like how do you get these people all in a room to talk?
I don't even fucking know.
And again, these are gigantic organizations.
I mean, like I think, I mean,
like they move a lot of money across the planet.
And I think there will be some element to this
where it's like slowly and then all at once, right?
Again, it's gonna, there's gonna be a moment
where it's like within the span of like a couple months,
it's gonna be like pressing go
and then things are gonna go pretty crazy.
But again, I think that for people who
from an investment thesis standpoint,
who are willing, it's like,
imagine if when people thought the internet was just email,
like when they thought that,
imagine if you could have like invested
in the overall internet somehow, right?
Like it's not even that you could have,
but imagine if you could have, it's like,
you know, that's kind of how I see this.
Yes, it could take some time,
but I think that is the closest kind of parallel
Swift says, Swift strategy director, Jonathan Solay
explained how CCIP secure middleware would allow Swift
to interact with any blockchain
through its existing PKI messaging standard,
which is already used by the vast majority of world's banks
in order to satisfy undeniable interest
from institutional investors into digital assets
amid a growing number of blockchains.
Today, Swift announced it will collaborate
with more than a dozen top financial institution,
including Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
Limited ANZ, BNP Powerbus, BNY Mellon, Citi, Clearstream,
EuroClear, Lloyd's Banking Group, Six Digital Exchange,
Depository Trust Clearing Corporation, that's DTCC,
to further test how entities can transact
with a variety of public and private blockchains
through Swift's PKI and CCIP.
We would expect to see a multitude of,
so so much for like the regulators,
like bank crypto, that shit's not gonna happen.
I think you're talking about the big money company
is actually building on this stuff.
So we would expect to see
a multitude of different platforms emerging,
each serving different customer segments
with their own bespoke capabilities and requirements,
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
So like, yeah, so that's the thing about this.
This is, because it's like interoperability standard,
you can build interesting products on this
without being completely hamstrung,
that like your bank has to do it exactly this way,
yeah, there's like, and again,
very rarely on my points original,
but I've kind of like absorbed a lot of it.
Another big thing is that there's almost,
I would argue there's basically no better way
to gain exposure to the private chain
development type ecosystem than through Chainlink, right?
And again, you just rattled off
that long list of institutions there.
I mean, name another token that gives you exposure
to that as a narrative or from a utility standpoint, right?
So that's the first thing.
The second thing is there's also arguably
not a better way to be long blockchain tech,
but short or uncertain regulatory clarity, right?
Because like there's certainly a world
where maybe like a lot of what we would know
is kind of like public type DeFi is like sort of hamstrung.
I'm not saying it will be, but maybe that world exists,
but like obviously these big banks lobby
to be able to still tokenize shit and talk,
the bank chains talk amongst each other
and that sort of thing, which again,
I think Chainlink very likely plays a big role
So that would be another,
I think point to Chainlink site, so.
Yeah, I know like looking at this,
there's some other articles too at DTCC site,
DTCC site about how Swift unlocks potential of tokenization
and blockchain experiments.
So it's really considered right now
in this kind of experimental phase.
It looks like they've already like,
it's not only that difficult to use like the APIs
for fucking Swift or whatever,
it's not rocket science most likely.
So like for the Chainlink people,
they probably like knock that out in no time.
And then they're just connecting their system to DTCC
and then like connecting via.
And what's interesting about all this is that
because CCIP is being sort of like designed and built
around the existing infrastructure in mind,
they already know it's fully compatible, right?
Like because they have their APIs they've been using
as the main driving force to build.
Cause the goal is to build it,
bring existing companies in
and then maybe have additional innovations
that they can provide that were not
in the previous infrastructure.
But yeah, it's, and then like,
so what is the other like play on this would be like,
well, I guess the largest layer one blockchains
where you believe these tokenized assets
So that's where that would be maybe the bullish case
for say, ETH or there might be the bullish case
for some of the like most prominent layer one chains
where dApps and whatnot are gonna use tokenized stocks
And that then becomes a question of like,
well, Solana is benefiting because it's fast
So the tech in the blockchain side,
of course matters at some level
because if you're gonna be trading these things
on these platforms, but at the same time,
the nice thing about Chainlink
is you don't have to worry about which blockchain wins.
And it wins if any of them win or all of them win
Like any combination, even if all of them go to zero,
like, and you connect DTCC and Swift,
I mean, that by itself is huge.
That's really, really good.
So like, you know, that's where this kind of like
thousand dollar Chainlink type, you know,
meme narratives come from just when you dig through this.
But like you said, this is not the normie like story.
Like it's like, you know, you just have to,
hey, let's do the quadrillions there.
Cause I mean, like really like 99.9% of normies
don't know what Swift is, nor do they know what.
No, and again, you could probably apply
that same percentage to most people
that might be considered crypto native.
I mean, it's hardly anyone actually knows what's going on
unless you've done a decent amount of digging.
And, you know, I'm okay with that.
It's, you know, am I going to have to be more patient
It's the alpha that makes you early, right?
Like if everyone knew this,
well then like this would not be a good investment
cause everyone would already be in it.
That's, so that's always the thing about being early
is like, it's like when you were early Apple investor
and like, you know, or you bought Apple stock
when iPhone came out and it's like,
oh, it's the price has pumped too high.
You know, it's all hype, right?
Like, you know, like you're doing pretty good
if you own Apple stock from Apple.
but that doesn't mean that like people
then didn't understand the potential.
Like when iPhone came out as a great example,
nobody understood what the potential was,
like very few, like, you know, there's a few people like,
oh, this is going to be amazing.
But I remember tons of people
who didn't give a flying fuck about it.
Like they were just whatever.
And they would have only wished to own the stock now.
So it's a similar thing I think here is like,
there's enough info out there here
and there's enough legitimacy here
that the probability they're going to do something
Like, so there is the risk that like
some of these things don't materialize
or they don't use Chainlink or something or whatever, right?
That is a possibility, but that's the gamble.
That's just part of the game here.
Like if we knew it was going to be a thing,
Yeah, once this becomes more like legit,
like let's say DCCC and Swift,
and they're most definitely using Chainlink now.
And, but then of course Chainlink's price
might be 200 bucks a coin at that point.
And now your gamble is much different, right?
You know, so your upside is not as high either.
So it's like, well, you know.
So the here, the thing is like, you know,
if it's like, well, I miss the ETH run up
because, you know, I didn't understand like
how blockchains were going to be so big
and like, I didn't realize that much money
is going to flow into the Ethereum ecosystem
or how many builders were going to come
The benefit of being something early
even though that the risk is also higher
in terms of both immediate price volatility
and it's higher as in like execution risk,
meaning they don't actually build
what they say they're going to do,
or maybe they're whatever partnerships
or test experience turn out to be flopped
It's why, like, when the best link FUD
that people can come up with on Twitter
is the stuff around like, oh, well, like,
show me like a revenue graph or like,
oh, you know, Sergey's just, you know,
dumping to pay for operations and stuff.
It's like, okay, like what are you going to do?
the token is occurring 15% real yield
maybe, but then you're going to be paying $300 a coin
That doesn't ever make sense.
And yeah, like, yeah, you know,
they say like first they'll fight you
and then they'll join you.
Yeah, that's definitely true in that, like,
first they fought the iPhone or fought whatever,
you know, and then later it's like,
oh, okay, well, it's going to change the world.
See, there's always these hype cycles
that go far ahead of the possibilities
and the price pumps way higher.
And then you get into overbought conditions
and then the price will dump
and you'll go into oversold conditions.
And somewhere in the middle
is probably the true value of a thing.
And that price discovery is what,
that's what we mean by price discovery.
It just takes time to sort that shit out and get there.
But like, yeah, you definitely pay,
like, yeah, now that Apple's a solid dividend earner
and everyone uses iPhones,
you could buy Apple stock today.
But it's going to perform a 10X.
Are you going to get 100X on your Apple stock?
And the risk is different too,
because like, once you get to a gigantic market cap,
your upside may be capped to a sense
to maybe a 2X or maybe a 5% per year growth
But your downside, however,
if some competitor shows up is actually quite high in theory.
Like what if some new company creates AI phone
or some shit and everyone jumps to that thing
because like Apple's stupid now or something.
then you do have some possibility that like,
well, it's not that your Apple stock's
gonna go zero immediately,
it's just that like the opportunity goes somewhere else
the cash and flow is gonna go to something else
that's gonna be the new growth thing.
Like look at Nvidia stock pumping, for example,
as opposed to the price of Intel stock right now.
So like at one point you would have imagined
that Intel would rule the world.
oh, that's gonna be the biggest thing.
Nobody's gonna beat them.
And like if you would have said to me today,
like if you would have said to me that,
oh, like Intel right now has what?
A price to earnings ratio, probably like very small.
And if you look at AMD's P to E ratio above 1000 right now,
you're like, what the fuck?
Like what's going on here?
And you would never have necessarily imagined
that this to be the case like long ago or whatever.
And that's what's interesting.
Like all these narratives and these technologies
you think are going to be
like something that when by the time they become stable,
you can now jump into them.
But even then look at Intel stock.
It dumped from 2020 price of $68
down to $25 at the bottom of the like 2023 bear market.
That's an amazing dump, right?
It's back up to 49 now, but you get the picture
like you could have bought IBM, I'm sorry.
You could have bought Intel at the top of the dot-com bubble.
You know what the price was?
$74, you know, when it's gotten back to $74, never.
Like the Intel has yet to get back to it's,
And back then, what's 74 bucks?
It looks like $250 an hour or something.
Like with inflation and whatnot, that's crazy.
And like the big run-up for Intel was like,
so it went up from 1973 at like 3 cents a share.
It ran like all the way to the very top of $73
over a period of 1973 to like 19
or so about the year 2000.
Truly the dot-com bubble was literally the top four at Intel.
Like it, and it dumped like it did a Bitcoin style dump
from like $74 all the way down to 1264
by the end of the dot-com bubble at about 2003.
And then it dumped again in 2009,
like all the way down to,
I think this was at the 2008 financial crisis follow up
and it dumped like $12 at that point.
I guess have they done any stock splits though?
Yeah, I'm sure they have.
That might be the one thing.
I don't think they have done a lot of splits.
Yeah, that's a good question though.
I don't recall them having done a lot.
yeah, you'd have to look at their market cap comparison yet
to look, but I don't see on my chart here
that bunch of splits in here,
there could be more splits than I'm seeing here,
but no, no, no, but the price, no, no,
but the prices I'm describing are the,
when they do these trading view charts,
this includes the splits.
Oh, it's like baked in or whatever.
It's baked into the whole chart.
Yeah, so they retrograde just all prices to the splits
so that you're looking at apples.
the point is like these things will do their run up
during their big growth period.
And then like when people say,
oh, I'm buying a blue chip, it's stable.
Like you can buy Intel for like 35
Are they, I assume they're dividend stock, right?
Yeah, they have dividends as well.
So yeah, dividend stocks usually pay out
a lot of their value as opposed to doing like stock buybacks.
So Apple, what they did was they did a lot of stock buybacks too.
In fact, they borrowed buyback stocks.
They added more value accrual to their stock by doing that.
But anyway, the thing is like
with Chainlink and companies like this,
it's like, you know, you're reasonably early.
There's not a Chainlinks IPO,
presumably the token is gonna be it.
And that is sort of your exposure to,
in fact, it would be antithetical to Chainlinks ethos
if they suddenly went and created stock on the market.
Yeah, that makes no sense at all, probably.
So like the coin is sort of like a stock in this instance.
And if like more staking opportunities emerge
where you can earn yield off it, that's great.
And if more value accrual mechanisms happen
and more use cases so that it's used more
as a cryptocurrency utility, then that's great.
Because economic activity ultimately builds an ecosystem.
Yeah, and you described it a bit earlier as well
with some of the gas token type stuff,
but I mean, it's gonna be the oil of this framework, right?
And so if the framework sees usage and activity,
then link is going to improve value automatically,
payments for services, security guarantees
in terms of attracting states linked and stuff like that.
Because basically like right now,
the way staking works is it's basically just like
I don't know if you're staking yours at all,
but it's basically just handing folks some link, right?
But eventually the way it's gonna work is it's gonna be
like, okay, as a node operator,
I'm gonna be sort of like advertising certain yields.
Actually, right now they're handing out,
they're handing out chain link team token.
That's pretty much the way it's working.
But yeah, eventually it's gonna be
node operators themselves basically advertising their service
or they're gonna be like,
okay, we perform these services
and we're gonna promise stakers this amount of yield
and they'll do that to attract a high amount of collateral
so that then when they go advertise in like the marketplace,
people are gonna be like,
oh, like they have a lot of staked link,
like they basically can increase
their amount of security guarantees.
Right now what's happening is
they're just bootstrapping them essentially.
Yeah, it's still out phase
and it goes back to the point we've talked about a lot
in terms of time is maybe the magic ingredient.
But again, there are other things in addition to time
that kind of all add up together, I think, so.
Yeah, although when anchor protocol bootstrapped UST
by handing out yield from TFLs,
well, everyone called that a Ponzi too, so like.
Yeah, that went really well.
So, but that was sort of, that's what they did.
Like TFL was giving out yield as a promotional yield
and that yield was coming down before the crash
and everything and but they were trying to reduce
But the funny thing there was.
It's like they had the right intention with UST,
I think, which was to increase organic demand.
The problem is it had very little organic demand.
I think that was part of the reason it got.
Well, the issue is it takes a really long time
to generate organic demand.
So the thing is like, you can't have a century go by.
There is like a risk associated with not moving fast enough.
So in that sense, like there is like,
looking at as many ways to build an ecosystem
that people wanted to play in.
One of that was mirror protocol.
One part of that was like anger.
And the whole idea is like you,
if you have economic activity and you bootstrap,
these activities with some interesting shit to do,
then it just goes from there.
So it's sort of like a fake it till you make it
But so there's something to be said
for like bootstrapping networks,
because clearly someone has to invest something for the,
like smartphone networks didn't emerge
without someone having to subsidize that network, right?
Like you didn't get cell towers put up everywhere
So like, and not only that, but a lot of companies,
like they spend a ton of money on just advertising.
Like that's a similar concept.
You're not actually like,
like someone has to know about your project right off.
And so like, it's like some of the stuff that TFL did
at the time sort of bootstrap demand and stuff.
I wasn't actually opposed to it.
But the thing is what he realized is that like,
if you don't have a lot more base use cases
for the tokens, for the UST, for the whatever,
then like when the incentives dry up,
who's gonna stay in the system?
Yeah, I think they had a lot of grand ideas fundamentally.
I think it just got too big, too fast,
was I think part of the problem.
And of course that led to the liquidity pool exploits
And just in terms of the sheer amount of supply
but that's maybe a little bit of a different thing.
But yeah, to your point, I mean-
But the question becomes like when,
if Chainlink is using team tokens
to sort of bootstrap the network,
then what happens ultimately with,
are node operators gonna be incentivized officially enough
just on fees in the network to make it work?
Well, that's, I think, to be honest with you,
I mean, you probably just hit on the key,
if there was a risk factor,
I think that's the risk factor
in regards to investing in the protocol, right?
is that in the next few years,
that this thing is gonna grow to the point
where there's lots and lots of activity,
nodes are incentivized off of activity alone,
or at least vast majority and all that good stuff, right?
And again, it's a necessary aspect.
It's the cold start problem, right?
I mean, you don't have that organic demand,
that organic activity from day one,
it has to be built and developed.
I think that's where a lot of crypto protocols get it wrong.
It's like you can come out with this sexy ass token
all day long, but it doesn't matter
if you don't have real users and real fees
Well, part of it too is like
where Chainlink's different is right now
to bring in tons and tons of like RWA slash stocks.
And when you don't have that capability,
you're just trading junk coins back and forth
of random protocol coins and BS coins.
Passing money back and forth, very P2P.
Passing money back and forth,
and that's fairly Ponzi-ish as well.
Chainlink, what it theoretically brings
is a gigantic amount of transactions
based on people tokenizing their stocks
and playing games with those.
So there's a very big difference
between trading equities on Chain
with tokenized assets that are real,
like actual real issued assets from DTCC
versus some synthetics or some BS or some other Ponzi.
Whereas you don't have to incentivize those.
Those will have organic use cases automatically.
they probably could command all the fees or whatever
because like people are actually gonna use those things
and pay potentially some fees to be able to do that.
And are they gonna be competitive
compared to brokerages and other things?
I'm not sure, we have to see where that lands.
Cause like at the end of the day,
it's like, well, how bad did you people wanna play
on tokenized versions of these things
versus going to their brokerage?
And that depends on what you plan on doing
with your stocks and shit.
And that's the first, we've talked about a lot,
I think tokenization of RWS,
that's the first and most obvious wave.
But I am a firm believer that there will be,
I don't know how far in the future,
but there's a lot of shit that is paper-based today
and that I think people take for granted,
especially when you talk about contracts
and it doesn't really matter the vertical supply chain
or real estate or whatever,
where I think I really believe that a lot of that
may go through chain link oracles and networks as well.
I mean, when it comes to contract guarantees
and executions and event triggers, all of that,
yes, there may be a financial element,
it goes from small time passing money back and forth
to big time passing money back and forth.
These actually have certain operational implications
as well that I think may trickle down
from a ubiquity standpoint too.
So I think the applications,
it's like when people thought the internet was just email,
they never imagined it was gonna be Uber and Netflix
and all this other shit too.
I think there's lots of use cases
we don't even know, we can't even think about right now
where chain link would be relevant.
There's a few visionaries back in the 1960s and 70s
that thought of this shit, they actually did.
And people were like, wait, what?
We're gonna be doing what?
And you go back to those recordings,
you're like, holy fuck, this guy was like,
you thought of all this shit.
I forget the name of the guys, yeah.
Oh, this article you sent me by the way,
so this is calistone.com,
tokenized funds go mainstream,
Asia and US lead adoption race.
There's a graph in here, tokenized offerings expected.
Yeah, so the calistone is a globe,
it says they're the largest global funds network.
I'm not really sure how I would define it,
but yeah, this is like a survey they did
of some various asset managers
and that sort of thing around tokenization.
And then the other one I said she was along similar lines
by EY, but they were both from earlier this year.
Again, neither of these, like mention any specific tokens
or chain link by name or anything, but it's, you know.
But it shows like, so tokenization offerings expected,
Asia Pacific region within 12 months,
and this article was written when November 13th.
So within 12 months of like November,
61% of the tokenization offerings that are described so far
will be ready within 12 months.
That'd be by November of this year, theoretically.
35% of them would be within the next three years
UK and Europe, you had 6% with no plans of tokenizing,
44% within 12 months, 47% within three years
0% of like companies had 0% chance,
the 0% of companies did not intend to offer tokenization.
So basically everyone's doing it.
Operate, they're looking within a year,
22% within three years and 11% within five.
So yeah, the U.S. and Asia Pacific seemed most aggressive
with practically none of the people surveyed
or I don't know who they surveyed,
but like institutions or whatever,
saying that they were not going to do this.
So this is why like when you heard like BlackRock,
even when Jamie Dimon is sitting there
he's like very pro tokenization
and implying things are going this way.
And what we don't know is for sure is like,
you know, how much of those,
are those companies building their own platforms
versus using something like a CCIP.
even if those companies did do their own platforms,
that's not to say that you couldn't connect
Yeah, I mean, lots of them,
if not most of them going the,
you know, kind of private ledger route,
plus CCIP and or Oracle services, right?
For it to actually enrich their tokenized assets
So, yep, it's fascinating.
Asia says their top benefits of tokenization
So 30% said cost savings,
25% of respondents said ability
to create more personalized investment experiences,
23% enhanced liquidity management,
22% said access to new asset classes,
and 0% were none of the above.
External factors are the biggest hurdles
to digital asset adoption.
What is that, like regulatory and stuff?
Let's see, asset managers' perspectives
on advent of tokenization.
25% think it takes a radical overhaul.
67% think this is manageable.
And 8% thinks they had to eliminate certain activities.
Or something like that to accomplish it, interesting.
So it's a survey methodology based on a global survey
connected to Q3, 2023 by Calisto
in a close partnership with Global Custodian.
Objective studies assess the fund industry's adoption
and attitudes towards asset tokenization.
141 participants were asset managers
with the balance made up of other industry stakeholders.
It's kind of an industry survey, basically,
of like who's interested in tokenization, so cool.
Yeah, and the UI one is similar.
Obviously, you can kind of take a look at that
on your own time as well,
but they surveyed asset managers
and high net worth individuals and stuff like that.
Yeah, a big part of it is making certain things
that are really illiquid now liquid.
Sort of real estate related investments
often fall into that category.
But there's other stuff as well.
this to me is the most obvious first wave, certainly.
But I think as time goes on,
we're gonna see more and more different kinds of things,
especially as smart contract applications develop
Of all of the tokens today,
by the way, that sort of ran up a little bit,
Akash did, it's up 7% back to 276, interesting.
I didn't think it would pump that quick.
I thought it was gonna like correct a lot more,
I think they're really pretty valuable stuff.
What's your thought on like just where,
I'm just curious like on this BTC pullback,
let's see what link BTC did
and see if it's developing any strength here.
It's hard to tell when you just like eyeball it
cause like you just see a bunch of candles.
Yeah, a little bit down versus BTC.
I mean, it went from like 38, 70 sats down to like 35.
I was gonna say it was holding up pretty well.
It's holding up pretty good here,
which makes me think like its next big move up
is probably pretty close.
Like, I guess if BTC dumps some more
and we're able to sort of like,
you know, it's almost a good thing.
it's actually a really, really good opportunity
to grab alts like cause they drop more.
So the benefit is like to the dip buyer,
So I pretty much make a habit of every time
there's something I want that drops a modest amount.
I usually get more just as a way to sort of DC.
Every, you know, 10, 15% or whatever.
I just, you know, add some, I've been,
it's funny cause like I initially bought Zephyr at like,
I bought like, I don't know,
like five cave it or something at six bucks
I sold a little bit, but then I bought a bunch
because it really looked like it was building a floor there.
And of course, but you know,
if you see shits the bed,
it's like everything goes out the window.
So that's kind of where we're at now.
But I've been, I've just been,
I'm gonna, I will bottom tick my Zephyr's.
I don't care how much PI, you know, burn in the product.
Yeah, I do the same thing.
It's like, let's find, let's wherever this bottom is,
I'm going to fish it and find it.
So that's, you know, it's fine.
Yeah, Zephyr and Kakao, those are like my,
I kind of barbelled my portfolio in a sense,
at least, you know, Cryptos,
so they have a bunch of links, but then like Zephyr and-
Pretty much tracks with Rune.
So it's basically just like my high beta Rune play.
My theory is that like, to the downside,
it's probably going to be similar,
but then, you know, if Rune ends up running to like 20 bucks,
which is what, like a 5x from here,
I think Kakao could maybe pull like a 10 out,
maybe double, maybe outperform it by a factor of two
or something like that, go to like five bucks maybe.
When Drake said, oh, don't fade Kakao, blah, blah, blah,
he told me about it at the very bottom.
And I didn't pick it up because I was too lazy,
It's at pretty attractive levels, I think.
Cause I like, I had bought some around 70 cents
after it had rechased from like a dollar.
Yeah, I hit near a dollar 20.
So when's it about a dollar?
Or maybe, maybe a dollar 10, but yeah,
And the speculative price on it,
or the deterministic price on it rather,
and Rune is probably similar
from a multiplier standpoint,
but it's like, I think they're both barely over two
at these prices, which is like kind of nuts
in terms of it being a solid deal, exactly.
Yeah, so this is getting in that range.
Yeah, both Rune and mine are probably
Or at least you could scale in for sure,
It's like, yeah, if you buy some here and then it like,
got it, it'll go 35 cents or whatever.
You just go exponential from here.
You buy like every 10% down from here,
you double your back or something.
That would be pretty fair.
Like with this type of volatility,
like having exponential buy is reasonable.
Cause we're down like, yeah,
we're touched talking about Maya protocols
and the token is Kakao, right?
Technically there is a Maya token,
but it's like for governance only and it's not liquid.
It was like airdropped to Rune holders.
So Kakao is the one that is like the parallel to Rune
and it's paired with all the assets and stuff.
But I kind of, it's interesting to me
but the thing that interests me about Kakao are a few things.
So like one, it's like a new token,
which all like in a, like a normal,
like a full bull run always has its upsides.
Number two, it's paired with like a lot of cool shit.
So like it's paired with QG and it's paired with,
they're working on Arbitrum,
maybe they'll eventually add like,
Solano or Injective or something like that.
While Thorchain does like all the,
like the solid like ETH, BGC, Doge or whatever,
Kakao is like a little bit more experimental
while all these other things run that could,
you know, attract some interest
in terms of being connected to some of those light,
you know, those other low layer ones and whatnot.
So yeah, and like I said,
there's a decent chance it outperforms Rune by a factor
of say 50 to 100%, something like that.
Cause it'll be the beta play on,
there's tracking with Rune,
it's just like the entire market's tracking together.
Yeah, but it's not, it's not bleeding more,
I guess is the way we'll put it.
So it's like in a similar multiple
to its deterministic price stuff.
remember like the deterministic price of Maya
may be much more volatile
because remember like the way,
so like for people that don't know how this works,
Thorchain Rune and Kakao for Maya Protocol,
the way they work is like,
if you have a certain amount of TVL,
let's say you have a million dollars worth of TVL
$3 million worth of Rune or something to secure that.
Is that the right number or something like that?
Does you have to have like double or triple
the amount of Rune value to secure that TVL?
if like liquidity providers come in
and provide even more liquidity
then those validated stuff
have to actually buy up more Rune
and supply it for securing their assets.
So where Maya's gonna be even more high beta though
is because the type of coins Maya's listing
They're not listing necessarily BTC needs.
Like little microcaps and things.
So while it's interesting that they are listing.
It is pair with BTC needs,
but they also have stuff like your QGs,
offer terms or whatever call it.
So yeah, it will be to your point like on average,
probably higher volatility on that front.
Yeah, because like when those microcaps fall
the deterministic price for cacao
falls faster than it would for Rune
because of the way that microcaps work.
So when the general market crashes
like cacao's price will also crash
but even more so because the amount needed
to secure the network because it goes exponentially.
Essentially it's a bit of a moving target, right?
That would be the most important thing to realize.
But again, I think all things considered,
I'm not saying as long as you're comfortable with the,
as long as you're comfortable with the volatility
because the flip side of that is
when those microcaps pump to high heaven
then Maya's has to do the same thing.
Like if you think like if you think $20
is a reasonable QG target or whatever
like cacao's gonna benefit from that as well.
So that's the thing like with Rune,
it's like the market caps of BTC and ETH
are much harder to move up.
So if you want something that's like a moon coin
then probably cacao is more of a moon coin than Rune.
So I get what you're saying.
Yeah, it's definitely the beta play for though.
So, but anyway, that's pretty much me right now.
So it went during these market downturns
to have a tendency to try to concentrate stuff most of the time.
So that's kind of where I'm at.
Yeah, I think I'm like Zeph.
The chain links Zephyr QG.
Like I'm hoping that these goofballs
don't send my remaining Luna to zero.
Which I don't think they will,
but like the bankruptcy fund now is in full effect.
And yeah, I have a few random ones here and there
Little bits of a few things just to kind of keep an eye on them.
But really now like after my conviction,
after just looking at all the different link things,
I think I'm going to put an outsized bag on link
and I'm going to let that run for like whatever 10X
it's going to make at some point in the future.
it's just simply a matter of being patient on that one.
Because if you say like, okay,
what stock in the stock market is going to do a 10X,
it's not that easy to find out at all.
It's actually pretty tough.
And so I think the alpha here is that like
chain links are still early enough
and the upside potential is exotic enough
that it's worth the outsized.
And I think a 10X is very possible this cycle.
And again, let alone like some of the things
we were talking about that might be 2028 beyond
Well, but the big thing is like,
what is, you know, what, when,
and when exactly is the cycle actually going to start?
Because when we talk about cycles is like,
number one, are we going to have a cycle?
Are we an echo bubble collapsing at the moment
You never know if we're going to have a cycle.
And then the second thing is like,
when's that going to transpire?
It's going to be this year,
it's going to be next year,
Like, what's going to happen?
Even like back in like 2019,
when there was like the BTC sort of bear market rally,
it would just run back up to all time high.
And it didn't at that time.
And we went from 2019 to 2020,
things were somewhat sideways
or like they weren't going exponential for sure.
So did we have that same sentiment now
where like this coming year is sideways,
or do we just run it up turbo like immediately
and like fuck all that or do we, what?
And the thing with the stock market running,
if we're just going to have a turbo run now.
Like, are we just fee recovery?
everything just goes ape shit
and all the different foot about the ETFs
It just turns out to be whatever
and everything just runs like fucking crazy.
And then like, that's cool because like retail
becomes left behind until much, much later, right?
And so what ends up happening is you have like,
even if you had a moderate bull run now,
like it went, you know, you have,
you know, you go halfway up and or like, you know,
or just like you pass all time high BTC
and then you dip back down or whatever.
Then what happens is you, then you grab in the retail, right?
Like maybe like, so the newcomer, the newbie
needs to be punished maximally, typically.
That's how the market works.
Because like, why would the market make it easy
for the newbie to get in early?
The newbie always comes in after prices have run up
because that's when they hear about it.
Yeah, you got to lose your shirt first
and then, you know, make back the wardrobe or whatever.
Yeah, like you, like imagine if the link or whatever,
just, I mean, not, yeah, like link,
it just starts moving, mooning.
Like it goes from where it was back in like 2021,
you know, cause we're at like 20 bucks that range, right?
And it just starts running up, like just goes turbo
for the next, I don't know, eight, nine months,
and then crashes after that.
And then retail shows up, right?
So some sort of weird gigapump could definitely happen.
And it's, it's interesting.
Like it seems like it's gearing up for that.
And link, remember back in 2020,
it started out DeFi summer.
So it actually ran early and then,
and then pulled back and then the whole market ran.
You know, it was, you know, it was kind of a first mover
within the past few months as well, I think,
cause it went from like five bucks to like 15 bucks
There was a window there where it was like 15 bucks
and then rune was still chilling out like a dollar 50.
That would have been a hell of a rotation.
Cause then rune went to like $7 or some shit.
Like I don't try to play things like that.
Sometimes I wish I did, but obviously hindsight's 2020.
So that's why it's like, no one knows what the future is.
I'm just going to buy what I have conviction in
and sit on my hands and go to sleep at night.
So I think that's, for most people,
the best way to, to play it.
So although you're, although you're generally happier
if like whatever you buy is in the green and you know
that you could sell it any time and you're positive.
The bag holder effect is not as fun, I would say.
I mean, it's interesting too.
Like it's like a mentality, but it's,
it's nice to have your assets like maybe two, three X
they're way into the green.
And if they go up, they're fine when it's boring, right?
I mean, obviously like you and I and a lot, you know
a decent amount of other people, I think, you know
chain link was giga boring for a year and a half.
Now it's just mostly boring, but there will be a,
there will be a point where it's really exciting.
And at that point that people are going to get rekt
buying about 70 bucks or whatever.
We went from a $7 average to like, you know
right now we're sitting at like a $14 average.
So the reality is it's like for a few months timeframe
that's pretty freaking good.
Like, like almost enough, almost like maybe
like one stock or two, three, like a small
like handful of stocks in the stock market
did the same thing over the past year and a half
So it's not like, you know, you were just
ultra winning just because you were in something else.
You know, like you did fine in chain link
if you're too expert now, you know
you're doing just fine compared to almost everything.
and then you're doing it relatively safely
compared to a lot of other things.
And then if you like, so yeah
I think I've moved like a couple of fibs
up to 32 is very, very rational
even if it's like a short lived thing.
pull back in consolidation would be good.
So yeah, I think there will be a run up within
if I had to guess, I'd say chain links run up
is going to be within about six months.
Somewhere in that timeframe
somewhere in that timeframe
you're going to have a big run
and you should have people
should be patient more than likely.
Anyway, we've been chatting a bit.
Hopefully people got some.
I was actually going to say
I'm probably going to hop back to listening
got to do some chores and stuff
but appreciate the conversation is good.
Hopefully everyone had a good day.