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LIVE EARNINGS $AMD | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 5, 2025 Duration: 2:47:48Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market update, key players like AMD and Rivian are set to report earnings, while Centris Energy showcases strong financials, indicating growth potential. The conversation also highlights emerging trends in AI and robotics, suggesting a transformative impact on the crypto landscape.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up, everyone?
Welcome into Stocks on Spaces.
Happy Tuesday.
What is today? The 5th of august wow all right let's take a look
around the market and uh do a little quick market update for everyone and then we'll start to jump
into the discussion a little bit see what everyone's watching out here and of course
earnings are coming up as well this afternoon a lot of Fintwit favorite names and some very interesting names.
Market update. Your SPY is down, S&P down 0.4%. NASDAQQQ is down about 0.6%. I see IWM has
actually come back and went green on the day. So a little broadening out into some small caps over
there. And the Dow also right at breakeven, we'll call it there. VIX is up a
little bit, right under the $18 level, right around that area hanging out. And I see a green
Amazon up a percent. I see a slightly green Apple and a breakeven Tesla. Rest of your mega cap names,
mostly red. A few other names, obviously moving throughout the day. And this afternoon, we have some big earnings.
And I'm excited to hear what everyone thinks about some of those today as well.
We have AMD and Lisa Su coming to us right after the bell.
SMCI, Arista, Anet, Rivian, Alab, Toast, Snap.
A lot of names that are talked about on this space and in a lot of circles around this app.
So excited to hop into it just a little bit here. You know what? I'm going to kick it over to the
Godfather first today. Let me go ahead and go to the Godfather and then we'll continue around the
panel and get everybody involved. Godfather, how have you been? What's going on? What's sticking
out to you in this market and anything maybe on the earning side of things that you've been paying close attention to?
Yeah, sure. Hey, everybody.
So, look, I was off Friday. I was off Monday.
So I'm just sort of getting back up to speed on what I missed.
Kind of a surprising rebound day yesterday.
But, look, we're kind of in this price discovery mode here on the indices.
I know a lot of the short-term traders really watch closely these nine and 21-day EMAs.
And if you look at SPY and you look at Q, you're either under or, you know, flirting with violating those levels on both of those indices.
I'm not a technical guy.
Spend more time looking at the fundamentals, but my understanding
is if we get through the 21, all I sort of focus on the 50 day. And look, this really has been a
tale of two tapes, right? This sort of AI, mega cap and secular growth names continue to break
out. They continue to attract inflows on the back of earnings and everything
else, the laggards, the value names, I've seen some pretty muted follow through.
So we'll see if that changes as we get into the latter half of the year.
But given where we are seasonally, I just I don't really see it.
And I put a note out to our Discord members on the 31st, just commenting on the market action post-Meta and Microsoft and how telling I thought it was when things started to sell off and I essentially said I'm going to put my draw a line in the sand here and say that the
queues at 575 and the SPY at pretty much 640 are the high water mark here and so far that's looking
to be the case. You've heard me talk on these spaces time and time again about this summer swoon.
It does come in one way shape or form every summer. It has manifested itself
into double digit declines on both of those two key indices, the SPY and the Qs. So, you know,
everyone's talking about potentially shallower this year because there's so much, you know,
regulatory tailwind and earnings growth expected and lower rates expected in the second half of
the year. And, you know, maybe we only get three to five percent.
Well, you know, I haven't even seen that yet.
So I'm refraining from taking new positions across the board, frankly.
I'm taking advantage of some market strength to build some additional powder
because I want to take advantage of the summer swoon because I am extremely excited about the second half of the year. And, you know, if you look at this earnings
season, the expectations were really low, which is, I think, attributing to the fact that
something like two thirds of the companies have beat kind of a meaningless number, in my opinion,
when the earnings growth expectations were a dismal 4%. And so far, we've come in at nine. So, but, you know, despite the bar being low for
a bunch of these companies, you know, there just hasn't been a great deal of follow through,
with the exception of a few names. I think that the one sector that deserves more attention, and we got a little bit
of it with the weak ISM and non-farm numbers at the tail end of last week, but it's the home
builders. And again, you've heard me talk about this. Yeah, we've seen a 20% move in NAIL, which
is the triple levered home builder ETF since Thursday. That's a big move. We threatened to break 70,
couldn't do it today. But I'm watching this level closely. And, you know, people forget that,
you know, in addition to, you know, what's most recently been talked about, which is Trump in the
headlines musing about eliminating capital gains on primary residences. But during the election,
you know, he was focused on a number of things
to revive housing growth. Mortgage interest deductions, tax credits for mortgage insurance,
expanded tax breaks for first-time homebuyers, unlocking federal land for residential housing,
all sorts of other low-income housing tax credits, neighborhood home tax credits,
all of these things to incentivize both the buyer side
as well as regulatory and other home builder incentives to incent the supply side. And of
course, the downward trajectory in interest rates, which was really what fueled this sort of two-day
20% move in that ETF I just mentioned. But I do expect some more sustained moves there across the board.
The valuations in these home builders relative to their ROICs or ROEs, wherever you want to look at it, are not demanding, to say the least.
You know, you're talking low single digit or so sorry, high single digit, low double digit type multiples.
multiples. And if you look at the other groups that are displaying those kinds of multiples,
I just don't see the sort of potential tailwinds in those as I do in these names.
FinTech is another basket that gets talked about at the same time, because obviously,
lower rates can lead to a steeper yield curve, which benefits a number of these names. And
amidst the names that
everyone's focused on, of course, the AMD after the close today and SMCI and some of the others,
we do have some fintechs this week. And I think it'll be indicative of what kind of performers
we might be able to see from these names. A lot of these have lagged. The setups aren't super
demanding going into the quarters. So we'll see.
We've got the likes of OpFi and Dave, a couple of small caps that I track on Wednesday,
and then a few more on Thursday. The other group that I'm looking at here that's been really robust,
obviously, as a second derivative AI player, the power names, and we start to get some of these names reporting with VST and CEG on Thursday, as well as SMR. So I'm going to be watching these names closely.
I'm looking to increase exposure to that theme across the board, but I want to get through this
earnings season, and I'll take advantage of any weakness in those names to do so. What else can I tell you? Yeah, we took a few trades this morning on
the drone names. It was excitement built into this transport secretary, Sean Duffy's presser.
Not much came out of it. I think it was pretty much expected that they would follow on with the favorable rules for vertical takeoff and landing that they came out with in June with this, you know, beyond visual line of sight, which is positive.
For the industrial and agricultural applications of drones. But, you know, we're seeing across the board stocks having
issue holding gains, and that's more pronounced in these smaller cap names. And again,
I think that's just symptomatic of where we're at in this market seasonally. And yeah, unless
you're sort of in this inner circle of AI and mega cap, things across the board have pretty
much been faded. So I have a very large position in AMD watching this one closely. I'm in the
re-rate camp. Of course, I'm nervous given the run-up in the stock, given the fact that
on a near-term multiple basis, i.e. 2025, this thing's trading well through 30 times.
But again, I think the picture is longer term, and I'm holding this in my long-term account. So
that's really the bulk of my focus. Nice. I appreciate you for starting us out there,
Godfather. Yeah, let's kick it around. One other quick thing. For those that are following, in addition to the earnings on Thursday, BitDigital is spinning out their data center arm into an IPO called White Fiber, W-Y-F-I.
It's notable in so much as that there's a dearth of pure play data center names trading.
Of course, we've got CoreWeave and we've got NBIS.
NBIS, of course, reports this week as well. But if this thing trades well above its indicated range of 15 to 17,
you could see BTBT trade into the high threes, low fours. That's where it deserves to be. And
that's assuming no premium for its ETH holdings, which total around $430 million.
And you've seen all those ETH treasury names pretty much come back to NAV.
So, yeah, that's a key focus for Thursday.
Sorry, that's it for me.
Gotcha, gotcha, Father.
Appreciate you.
And feel free, anyone, to jump into the conversation as we go along.
We've got a pretty busy day today, pretty full panel,
so we probably will not be going on too many rounds,
at least towards the end.
But I want to bring JC Perez into it.
JC, I am a big fan.
We are lucky to have JC joining us on the show.
You know, the more the better.
But I know you do your morning show
every single day.
I'm watching that.
I appreciate you being here.
I know you're much more of a trader.
I'm curious on what you're kind of watching in this market.
You know, one of the themes we've kind of talked about on here is this market has changed color a little bit over the last couple of weeks.
It's not quite bearish at this point.
The word that I feel like I've enjoyed settling around is exhaustion, maybe.
I kind of want to get your thoughts on that and just how you're approaching this market.
We appreciate you being there.
Yeah, no, for sure.
Happy to do it.
And thanks for having me.
You know, I think that it comes back to sector rotation.
So while some names might be waning, other names are picking up the pace, right?
And, you know, sector rotation is really what drives bull markets.
You know, go back and study every bull market ever. You'll see it. Sector rotation. You've
got your leaders, then you've got your laggards along the way. And what ends up happening is that
the laggards catch up to the leaders. In the bear markets and the downtrends for stocks in general,
you tend to see the opposite, right? The remaining leaders ultimately catch down to the laggards.
So we continue to see that rotation coming in. And while maybe some names have taken a break, that's perfectly consistent with bull markets, as long as some of the ones that have been lagging are picking up the pace. well um particularly in latin america look at you know even you know european banks like while u.s
banks have kind of taken a little bit of a break and kind of some some consolidations in the
financials in general berkshire hathaway coming up coming off you're seeing you know new all-time
highs in european banks you know deutsch bank is the best bank in the world like what kind of world
are we in when deutsch bank is the best bank you, so it's a risk on environment until proven otherwise.
And, you know, we don't have necessarily like, you know, a big sector that's dragging down the
market. It's like, oh shit, watch out for that. You know, we don't, we can't point to that. There
isn't that right now. And you need that in order to have like a consistent downtrend, like a
particular sector that's like, Hey, that's the sector that's dragging down this market. You
don't have that. Maybe you could have pointed to consumer discretionary maybe in the second quarter as the potential
culprit for this cycle that could drag down the rest of the market. We were looking at that as
the potential and it came back with a vengeance. And now discretionaries are back above the prior
cycle highs from 21, 22. So you can't point to that anymore. So you don't have that sector
that's like, oh, that's the one that's going to screw everything up this cycle right there's always that sector or group of stocks and so
the sector rotation somebody mentioned uh home builders before great example you know rotation
rotation back into semiconductors would be perfectly consistent with another leg higher
in the stock market right if the homies were breaking down and making new lows then we could
start pointing to the homies as like, hey, that's
the sector culprit for this particular cycle that's going to drag it down.
But not only is that not happening, all these things are ripping.
So, you know, rocket and all these things, these things are doing great, you know, particularly
with the falling rates.
And so when you look at the bond market, right, so reverse engineer what we're having, what
we're seeing in the stock market with the intermarket implications of something like
that. what we're having what we're seeing in the stock market with the intermarket implications of something like that so if these homies are ripping like that on falling yields and then we look at
the bond market which has some of the most compressed volatility ever like look at the
tlt that is literally the most some of the most if not the most compressed volatility of all time in
the history of that etf so one thing we know about the market we don't know much especially, especially about the future, but one thing we know is that asset prices trend. We know that
they trend for a long time. We also know that volatility mean reverts. So from very compressed
volatility in the bond market, like, man, volatility can only get, it can only expand,
right? So we're looking for a volatility expansion move in the bond market. You think about, well,
is that going to be to the upside or the downside? You know, if it's to the upside, that's going to be great for bonds. But guess what?
It's also going to be great for stocks, particularly growth stocks. You know, look at small cap stocks.
The positioning right now in small caps is on another level. You're looking at, you know,
new 52-week highs and short interest in the IWM. Futures market has historic short interest in the IWM futures market has historic short interest by the speculators so smart money
is the most net long um Russell 2000 ever right so you know looking at the positioning I think
there's definitely vulnerability and then when you break down at what's inside the small cap indexes
what do you got you got a ton of biotechs you got a ton of regional banks right ton of them
so when you look at the biotechs you know you've got record highs and short interest in the biotechs. You know, when you look at regional banks, you have crazy
high short interest in the regional banks. So it makes sense from a top down that the positioning
is for, you know, further small cap underperformance when, you know, if you start to shift in the other
way and there's already signs that you're seeing it, you know, my biotech stocks have been working,
right? There's no better tell than your own P&L and what you own.
You know, those trades are working.
I want to be adding to biotech positions.
I'm not really in regional banks, but I still think that they're going to be an important
component of the small cap appreciation and outperformance if that's what's coming.
And then so we're in a seasonally weak period, right?
August, September, like this is when bad things happen in the market historically, right?
So that skews the data to the downside where, you know, historically the market's supposed
to struggle, but it doesn't mean the stocks can't go up, right?
What if we just get massive rotation underneath the surface where certain groups of stocks
that might not impact the overall S&P 500 that much are doing very, very well.
They're just not making a dent in the major
indexes and it looks choppy on the top. But when you look underneath the surface, there's big moves
in a lot of different sectors that maybe weren't participating before. And I'll point you to
UnitedHealth, right? I was out in the lake this weekend and I was in line at a market to pay for
a bunch of stuff. And the people behind me were talking about UNH stock. I'm like, huh, that's interesting. We got to be close, right? We got to be close.
And so I go back and I'm looking at the charts. I've been looking at this thing forever because
it's a Dow component. So I look at it every week as part of my process. And, you know, we're at,
I'm not a big Elliott wave guy at all, but I mean, you can't not see it. You know,
you can check it on my Twitter account. I just tweeted it out. I mean, it's just a clean five wave count. I mean, it's just, I'm not an Elliott
wave guy, but I mean, you can't not see that. And then, so when you zoom out to the all-time
lows from the 1987 crash, right? So the 1987 crash took out the IPO lows, made new all-time
lows. And then from there, if you just fib that out to the all time highs, the 61.8%
retracement of the entire move off the 1987 lows to the all time highs is exactly where we just
got this week. So like, man, there's just a lot of shit going on in UNH right now, big levels.
And then as a, as a major component of the Dow, you know, I could see an environment over the
next couple of months where the Dow outperforms S and P's and Nasdaq. So that's what I, you know, I could see an environment over the next couple of months where the Dow outperforms S&Ps and NASDAQ. So that's what's on my mind. You know, rocks and stocks and bonds.
I love it. Can I ask you, do you ever trade any of these 2X single stock ETFs? I'm biased. We're
working with one of them. They launched a 2X UnitedHealth one and a lot of interest in it,
but you talk about UNH there. I wanted to ask you in general if you do use them at all i personally don't trade the leveraged uh
stuff these leverage utfs because if i want to juice i just do get it i'll get the juice in the
options market right so i don't like the dk where you get the reset on the leverage funds every day
like i don't like that i'd rather be in the derivative if i want to if i want to juice
i'd rather be on derivative oh that makes sense and i i really enjoy that you were calling
them homies in there and rkt was one that that i actually the open door kind of i don't know what
we want to call that really sort you know sparked me to look more in that area i i've seen a couple
people talking about it i believe it was hedge Hedgeye, and there was a...
Someone put out something about this yesterday, too.
RKT's been an interesting one.
I'm curious more of your thoughts around that kind of home sector.
You were calling the homies.
I think you maybe were talking more about the home builders,
and RKT's a little bit different.
I'm trying to be curious about your thoughts.
What do you think about that sector?
What parts were you more playing in?
The RKTs or is it like the home builders?
You think?
It's both.
I mean, I'm personally in the Palti homes,
but RKT is like a cousin of the homies, right?
I have a question.
Who is in that space?
So Palti, it could be, I don't know if he was the CEO.
He's in some government position now.
Who's the CEO of Palti?
Did it change?
Was it actually him before?
I have no idea.
Yeah, that's fair.
Hey, listen, that's the answer.
We're like, I don't know.
We're probably four or five years away from a specific interview.
There's the answer that should have been given.
I have no idea.
I'm just trying to sell things at higher prices than I buy them, you know?
All right. Can I ask you one more question
and we can move on?
Sure, yeah.
One name that's been a continuous loser,
but at different points people want to come in
and take that bottom fishing dive.
What do you think of a name like Intel?
Oh, what a mess.
Is there ever a point where you're just like going sideways or something and
you're like i'll take the chance yeah i mean like you know if you're gonna go into those old school
ones and never made it back like cisco looks way better than intel at least cisco's gonna at least
try to get back to those former all-time highs from the dot-com bubble highs like it looks like
it's gonna get there intel i don't know i don't think so you know i don't know if i'm going to buy some garbage i'd rather buy like
rocks you know some of these mining companies down in peru and shit you know
silver i want to bring you into the conversation any any uh yeah if you have any thoughts on what
we're talking about here any uh any dumpster diving names you're a fan of?
I'm definitely on the side of rocks in the rocks versus Intel trade for sure.
Yeah, Intel just looks terrible.
You know, I guess just slowly kind of drifting out of existence
competitively to some extent.
But the thing that I'm kind of watching,
I kind of almost am always deferring to the macro.
I think that the conversation about kind of the losers
catching up and the rotation is definitely a fun one.
I think that's, we might be in one of those moments
where it's kind of like rotation or correction.
I'm watching some of the everyday
trades that I talked about earlier this year really closely. I kind of put those in the category of
stocks that people buy because they know them, they use them. Think about like Spotify,
Netflix, Robinhood, the best example of this, because not only are they buying the stocks that
they know on Robinhood, Robinhood is winning from them doing that as an act.
So Hood still is probably the most important chart for me.
Shout out, I'll be at the Hood Summit in Vegas next month.
So I think that that will see you there.
Oh, yeah.
Nice.
Good.
It should be really fun.
And they're just really emblematic of so much right now. And that's a little bit of my Chicago
bias too. So I'm watching that chart really closely. I do think if a hood goes the way of
Netflix and Spotify, then you might be in a little bit of a tough spot for some of the consumer
discretionary stuff that JC was talking about earlier that correctly kind of has fizzled a
little bit. The question is, do we get the other catch-up stuff?
You guys definitely have longer lists of catch-up trades that you're looking for.
I'm kind of thinking more on the macro to see if we break down because I do feel,
in addition to some of the seasonal stuff that was mentioned earlier about just the time of year when things generally go awry, I definitely have some respect for that, that kind of August to September stretch.
But moreover, it just seems that some of the bounce back narrative has run a tiny bit dry,
just in terms of kind of the tariff relief that served as this massive trampoline,
basically for the S&P 500 off the April lows. To JC's point about bonds,
there's really not a lot of answers being given in bonds.
I wish there were.
The really big bond rally over the past week
was very interesting.
I don't think that's a terribly bullish risk on thing,
but I'm also kind of in the camp
where you probably don't want the other direction for bonds.
But until they really change, I don't think you get a lot of signal from that.
I think you're going to get more signal for your risk trading approach from the everyday trades like Robinhood,
Bitcoin, of course, and Master.
I'm still short Master long Bitcoin, but I've continued to kind of trim my long Bitcoin side of that.
I'm probably getting a little bit greedy,
but I do think that the chart there is just failed breakouts in the crypto category can be predecessors for kind of deeper down moves.
I don't think any of this is like the great run is over by any means
for any of these risk assets,
but I do kind of sense maybe a little bit of
kind of opening here. And I think that's even just going by price action, because the price
action in Netflix has not been great. Price action in some of the kind of high flyer everyday trades
has not been great. Price action in Bitcoin has not been great. It wasn't able to get out of that bearish divergence despite the push past 120, basically.
So if any of that stuff worsens, then I think you might need to be on alert a little bit.
The stuff that I look at in periods like this is basically gold.
I think the gold chart is just really incredible.
It's just really hard to have any negative view on gold when it keeps
finding its legs. Now, it hasn't been able to get past 35, but if it does, I think that's a really
impressive move you want to be a part of. And then the last thing I would say is,
if you're thinking about potential kind of shift away from the ebullient bullish like super run we've been on. Some of the anti-beta stuff
like BTAL, which has been crushed, is a decent way to still have kind of equity market exposure,
but in a category that will preserve and actually go up if we have sort of a higher beta roll-off.
So if Bitcoin Maastricht and HUD soften up further and you get that kind
of high beta roll off, you know, hopefully gold works, hopefully BTAL works. The last thing I
guess is a little bonus is the dollar. I'm watching that because the dollar is kind of firming up and
that also suggests maybe we could be in for some kind of different macro regime. I'm not sure what
it would be, but those are kind of the list of things I'm looking at.
Appreciate you, Oliver. JC, I want to circle back at you on, on, if you're watching,
if anything there sounded, uh, interesting for you, I'm curious around like the VIX,
if you're watching that one or just these kinds of other, the Dixie is one that that's just going to affect all stocks. I wonder if you watch those in your trading at all.
Yeah.
One of the things that Oliver mentioned was gold and Bitcoin.
A couple of things that I've been watching closely.
I'll address the volatility.
So for the VIX, I mean, the VIX is a measure of the volatility for the S&P 500, right?
So we look at the volatility for all assets and we measure it using the options market data.
And we also, the actual, the ATR, right?
You could take like Bollinger Bands
and you can like measure like a Bollinger Band width
to see like just how tight and compressed that volatility is.
So you can get volatility data
from both the stocks and the derivatives market.
And then the VIX is just that for the S&P 500, right?
So VIX specifically, you know, we just saw the biggest collapse in the VIX ever,
you know, coming from extreme pessimism in the stock market, historic extremes across the board,
things that we've never seen ever, even worse than the great financial crisis and the dot-com
bubble lows and COVID. We had data, not all the data, but we had a lot of data that was worse
than all of those times. So the VIX at 60, biggest collapse ever. And one thing we know from
volatility collapses is that those unwinds last a while, right? I mean, you're talking about a rubber band that's super, super stretched.
So the legs that that unwind has is far more than just a regular trend, right? Because it's coming from further away. So, you know, I think, and I've been saying this, like we want to err on
the side of greed because of that, right? Versus erring on the side of caution. There are times to do
both. I think erring on the side of greed has been really beneficial for us. And I see no reason to
change that, particularly if we were seeing rotation underneath the surface. I know Jeff
Hirsch in the house, homie Jeff Hirsch, Stock Traders Almanac, best in the business. Very
curious to hear his thoughts on rotation versus correction. That was a great question mentioned
earlier. But as far as the Bitcoin, bitcoin you know that consolidation that we had uh it was like it was like at 118,000
for like three weeks in a row like every day for like three weeks it was crazy and that should
have resolved higher in the direction of the underlying trend but it did not right and that
in and of itself is information so i think overhead supply for the foreseeable future
until that gets corrected and then gold making new highs. You know, we're talking about rocks
before. I like the Buena Ventura BVN. Uh, this thing's a beast looks great. You know, my whole
thesis throughout this consolidation and gold miners is like, right. You know, we, we had a
funny feeling that gold miners were going to correct. And so they have, and along the way,
it's like, let's watch to see which ones are holding up the best. Where's the relative strengths in the metals market? And so that's really been, you know, our strategy in this consolidation is watching the consolidation and seeing who is doing the best. And Buena Ventura is up on that list. There are others too, but Buena Ventura is one of them, BVN. So I like that. So I like the rocks. So those are my thoughts. But curious, Mr. Jeff Hirsch, on the rotation.
I listened to JC say Buenaventura
ad infinitum.
Ha ha.
Buenaventura for the
gringos in the house. Buenaventura means
good venture. Good venture.
Good chart, too. Looks nice.
I'm saying.
A ton of short interest, by the way, in gold mining stocks just enough way jeff feel free to jump in sorry man just uh clearing my throat there thanks jc
good to see you buddy good to hear you um yeah the rotation is good but i also see a little
correction here you know everyone's talking about the seasonals.
We all know why we know them.
But these often become a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I don't see anything nasty or sinister, just your typical summer correction,
summer flow correction, you know, 5%, 8%, somewhere in there.
I think the low volatility breakdown that we had on the 31st and the 1st, that was
sort of the end of a 26-day run where we had the S&P not moving out of the direction of 1%.
I posted up prior and reminded everybody that how these low volatility streaks end matters.
I'm going to end to the downside. It's a little bit more bearish.
And again, these streaks around this 20, 30 some odd days
tend to preclude a little bit of weakness,
but nothing sinister.
The rotation seems to ironically line up
with the sector seasonality.
I hear you talking about biotech and gold monitors.
Those are bullish seasons for our sector rotation that come into play in August.
We're into the GDX and the GDXJ and GLD.
Silver, we're looking for a little bit lower.
Biotechs, you know, the IBB and the XBI are on our buy list, looking for a dip there.
Also, Infotech, the IYW.
So while we're kind of cautious and patient and waiting and not doing a whole bunch of new buying in stocks,
we are rolling into some of those sectors that begin their seasonal bullish period.
So aside from the beginning of August, the first eight or nine days being historically weak,
and August and September, which everyone has talked about ad nauseum being the weak months,
we've got this NASDAQ Hot July.
JC, I don't know if you remember, Yale used to run a thing about Hot Julys with the Dow being up 3% or more for July.
And there was, you know, Hot Julys end up with late summer autumn buys.
We ran it.
We didn't get that big hot July with the Dow, but NASDAQ was up 3%.
And pretty much seen going back to 71 when NASDAQ started, you know, a nice 5.5%, 5.8% average drop.
Some nasty ones in 73 and 78.
We didn't have a hot July last year, but we did have a July peak
and then a little short correction that ended like it was August 8th or something. So with the, you know, overbought situation,
the season was coming,
everyone heading out on their August vacations,
present company included,
I think we could find ourselves for a little bit of a nice summer correction,
fall correction,
a little buying opportunity ahead of the fourth quarter that promises to put us
to new highs,
maybe even get us close to 20% for the third year in a row.
So that's what I'm looking at.
Biotech, gold, gold miners, weakness in August, low volatility ending, and hot chill eyes and later buys.
so that's what's on the radar hey hirsch send me some of those charts with the biotech uh and uh
So that's what's on the radar.
yes sir the biotech and the rocks a lot of fans of the uh of the gold and the miners in the uh on
the spaces today very interesting by the way we're getting closer to the market being over for the day. We got a bunch of earnings coming up. We'll shift over and start to talk
that way in a little bit. End up in the nest above some of the names we have. AMD, Supermicro,
Arista Networks, Rivian, Alab, Toast. Someone on this panel I know owns Toast.
But yeah, we got a couple hands up as well. We're going to shift over that conversation much more
towards earnings specifically in
that time.
And I do also want to shout out all the amazing speakers we've had.
Join us up here, already 900 people hanging out, listening in, a lot of really great and
smart people.
Make sure you are giving them all a follow.
If you enjoy this type of live free content, make sure you're following the host of this
spaces.
Stocky, you've had your hand up for a while.
Yeah, yeah.
I wanted to talk about
a stock that's reporting here in about 20 minutes. And that's one that is very hated, but I think the
setup is interesting here. Not only short term, but potentially more medium term. And that is
Snap, everyone's favorite nude photo app. No, I'm just kidding. But Snap is hilarious on earnings. Like 10 of the last
13 quarters, it's gapped down double digit percentage. So it's pretty much a turd,
more than not, on earnings. But this earnings is interesting because I think the setup here
could actually be setting up for a beat. Snap gapped down last quarter because they had pretty good results,
but guided very weak for second quarter
because they reported at the end of April, right?
And so we were like in the thick of the tariff and trade war.
And, you know, they were pretty cautious
about the pace of advertising spend at that point.
However, we know from Meta's results, Google's results,
that things picked up sequentially April, May to June. And the numbers for Snap have not been really brought up since
they guided week during the report in Q1. So I think the setup going in, it's a 33 times
forward earnings or so. So valuation-wise, not terribly expensive. Numbers have not been
adjusted to reflect the ad strength that we saw later in the second quarter. And then on a longer
term basis, I think there's some interesting developments happening here underneath the
surface. One of the big bear stories on Snap obviously has been dilution, share count dilution.
They issue a ton of shares all the time. The share dilution has been pretty egregious over the past few years.
Snap's kind of seen as like, you know, just an outlet for making its employees rich and
not shareholders.
However, two things.
One, they've been, I'm tracking their RSU and option grants.
Their RSU grants are down about 35 to 40% on a year-over-year basis over the last two
quarters.
Their shares outstanding grew the
slowest rate in the last six quarters, last quarter. And then in addition to that, you've
got some nice profitability inflection over the last 12 months. Adjusted EBITDA has basically gone
from like 200 million at the beginning of last year to almost 600 million of last 12 months
adjusted EBITDA in Q1. And I think that trend should continue.
So I don't know.
I think there's some interesting components here.
And I don't know what Q2 is going to look like.
I do think that obviously the setup is fairly neutral to bearish going into it, which may
help them.
On a longer term basis, though, also, I think what's interesting besides the profit inflection
that we've seen is they're a player in the form factor that people are calling the form factor for AI.
So when we look at the glasses, you know, obviously, Meta is really successful right now with Meta Ray-Bans and Meta Oakleys.
And they expect that to be a huge platform for them in the next five to 10 years.
a huge platform for them in the next five to 10 years.
And they think that, honestly, it could even displace phones on a long enough time frame
and that you'll have an AI assistant essentially with you all the time that is just in your
field of view.
And so we know that there are other companies kind of working on that.
OpenAI is working on their own glasses format.
There's rumors out there.
But Snapchat, you know, they've had spectacles.
They've had their own AR glasses for a while.
They're kind of clunky, but they're releasing some new specs in early 2026.
And I think, you know, just the IP alone that they've got in that division is pretty compelling and interesting as we move forward into interfaces that will build in AI natively.
in AI natively. So I think there's some interesting components. I have some small, longer term
So I think there's some interesting components.
call exposure, and I'm actually pretty interested to see what happens here on the Q2 report.
So I just wanted to throw that out there before we get the markup closed today.
Hey, can I just say that I've always actually thought that Snap is very underappreciated
if they can really learn, and maybe they'll use the AI for this,
but to improve their discover page, because I find that actually it's one of the best ways to
consume video content, almost like a YouTube competitor in a way, like people that I follow,
influencers. I mean, where can you find the best of the family feud clips? Like they actually have
a really good content consumption category that I feel has a lot of value family feud clips like they actually have a really good content consumption
category that i feel has a lot of value to it if they can figure out how to market it right
it's they've done a really terrible job in the past of matching advertisements to users based
on my experience and also just based on their sales numbers which generally were horrible but
i feel like ai might be able to plug a lot of those leaks
because I find it to be one of the best places,
easiest places to just,
like let's call it toilet content, right?
Like you're scrolling, it's easier than YouTube.
It's easier than YouTube shorts for me.
And you can get a lot of like,
I follow this guy who runs an amazing like exotic pet store,
like this killer show.
I didn't even know he had YouTube,
but he's got hundreds of thousands of followers. So there's no reason why Snap can't monetize that and I've always found it
to be very underappreciated um and it does kind of fit into like um you know the Netflix Spotify
the everyday trade so I I could buy like a fundamental case for it uh just my two cents
there yeah definitely feel free to jump in here and anyone give some thoughts snapchat was not the
one that i thought was gonna be the first one we dug into um it's an interesting one snapchat
definitely it's it's always been interesting because it normally reports the same week of
meta and it's normally the day right after and generally it's been meta saying great stuff about
the advertising space it gaps up a little bit. And then bam, Snapchat down 20%.
That feels like maybe they were tired of it and said, we're going to do a week later.
Yeah. I mean, they've been getting...
Not the worst strategy I've heard.
They've been getting a lot of feedback too from institutional investors that meet with them
about the share dilution. So they're aware of it, that that's one of the kind of headline issues. And they are,
you know, slowly starting to reduce the stock grants. So I think that's a nice positive. But
you're right, going into earnings and earnings trade on Snap is a little bit scary, because
I'm literally looking at the data right now. I'll tweet out an update on this later today. But
since Q1 of 2022, they've had 13 quarters they've reported and 10 of them have seen a pretty significant negative stock reaction after earnings.
So like these guys just can't figure out how to, you know, how to message or how to operate their business that makes public shareholders happy right now.
shareholders happy right now. But I think, again, I think this from a longer term perspective,
it could be setting up to upside surprise a lot of people that have
kind of thought this one is left for dead.
Mike, I see you got your hand up. You got any thoughts around these earnings?
Yeah. Hey guys, I'll take a different approach on snap. This is a very badly run company
The CEO always comes on and blames Apple or Google or somebody else for reddit or somebody else for their problems
We're still losing money
I don't know
Was gonna get a whole set up here that
Mike hates Evans. I think that's my
I don't I don't hate them. I love you, bud. I love you, bud.
I just, you know, maybe one of these days
they turn around, but, you know,
remember they were up in the 80s, and ever since then, it's been
game over for them.
You know, AMD tonight is the most
interesting one. It's that guidance. I want to see
what they guide to. I want a big guide up here.
I assume they're going to be, I want a big guide
up. I want to see that AI number
starting to come in. I want to see them, you you know say we finally had our aha moment and here we go
i'm kind of with everybody else this market's just in a routine little pullback here um it seems to
be shrugging everything off it's just okay you know there's still longs to be had for me today
i was you know finding little things to do traded pounds here at the gate with options had a big
trade on that took a little loss on video traded the queues with both long and short had a nice little trade
on what did i trade today i forget yeah smr on stock that had a nice little pop there but overall
the market here is just you know it's it's weak it's quiet i think everybody mentioned the
seasonality is in play here and honestly we had a three percent pullback already i wouldn't mind getting down to that 5% or at least to the 50-day here on the SPY
and then see where we go from there.
SNCI tonight also.
I want to see what their guidance is.
If these AI businesses are booming and China opening up,
they should have big guidance there as well.
Stock talk.
Stock talk, stock talk. What's up, what's up? Oh, Brian up brian wait actually let's go over to brian first okay i think you might have to i heard you on mute you probably have to go soon
uh no i'm i'm good till the close um so uh let me just shout out everyone that's on the call. I see a lot of old homies here, JC, Jeff, Blake. I don't
know. I feel like a lot of people are complacent about the action that we saw last week in the
market. I mean, we had a really ugly reversal day last Thursday, and then it followed to on Friday.
All we've really done is kind of fill that gap and come back down from it.
I'm not saying that anything is going to come from that,
but like,
I don't know. People just seem to be ignoring that.
And I'd be a little bit more cautious,
at least short term right now.
Certainly seasonally,
you want to be cautious.
So I don't know.
It just feels like everyone's just waiting for sellers to come in and push
the market back up.
Like it's always done.
And that's usually not a good sign.
Hey, can I jump in for a sec?
Yeah, what you got?
Well, you know, it's Brian on there, right?
It's Brian, Jeff.
What's up, buddy?
We got JC, the master technician, on the line.
I've been having a little debate on the, you know, the boomer list service about some technical analysis stuff.
And I think there's a little action on X with Steve Grasso and Tom McClellan about whether the Thursday, Tuesday moves, whether they were outside reversal days, bearish engulfing. Somebody was saying that it's
got a close below the low as opposed to close below the close with the higher high, the lower
low at a high. Anyone got a real read on that? JC, Brian? Let me give you my read on that.
It's not technically a bearish engulfing because you're right. It has to close at the low.
It should engulf the whole previous candle.
But that's been really pedantic.
We're looking at what the actual price action is inside that bar.
And if the bar is 75 to 85% of that pattern, you have to pay attention to it.
Like I see patterns all the time that they look like a morning star reversal or an evening star reversal.
They're not exactly the same, but they have that same U shape.
So, you know, I think sometimes a lot of these old school guys get a little too technical, you know, no pun intended.
I think it's because a lot of them don't actually trade.
Right. They they have they've had services where they sell
their technical analysis to people that do trade. So for me, that looks like a, a bearish engulfing.
And that's what I've been calling it to my subscribers. When it closed below, you know,
the low of the day on Friday, that confirmed it. And it can be nullified. I'm just saying,
I feel like a lot of people are just kind of glossing over like, no big deal. We'll just be back at all time highs, you know, in the next week.
JC, you care?
Whenever you hear the words bearish and golfing, just go for a walk.
What about outside reversal?
Who does that remind you of there?
The Pearl.
The Pearl dog. Shout out to the pearl man uh the truth is
i i agree with everything that brian said uh and then some maybe a version golfing maybe not
bullish reversal whatever go for a walk and you know really weigh the evidence as to what the
broader markets are doing and whether or not five version and golf things led us like 15% higher.
Thank you very much.
Uh, thank you.
You know, I would include bearish and golfing patterns in the same conversation as selling
naked calls.
Like, just don't do it.
Like, you know what I mean?
It's, it's in that category.
Maybe it's not as egregious as selling naked calls, but, um, like selling naked out of
the money calls like
you know but it's in that direction i feel like just like focus on other things is kind of how
i look at it and weigh the evidence and are we seeing sector rotation or not uh you know that's
really i mean in the context of the last two years if we're just being objective
bearish engulfings have been more of a fake out signal to the downside than they have been a
bearish signal now that's going to change eventually, but I mean... Because asset prices
trend. That's what it is. It's not the signal. These head and shoulders tops that everybody sees,
all of them continue higher because, you know, reversals are actually very rare. So, you know,
continuations, there's a much higher probability outcome of a continuation, whether it's a bearish
engulfing pattern or not, you know? The thing that bothers me about that take is that we're all talking about this
and we watch the market 24-7, right?
And so we're not going to overreact.
We're going to watch different pieces of the market.
We're not just going to change our action based upon one candle.
But I think a lot of people that are listening to these spaces,
they don't focus as much on the day-to-day stuff so i know but brian look underneath the surface
what happened on friday on friday you had the put call ratio actually dropped and you had a ripper
in home builders on friday right so while you may have had some you know rotation and some bearish
engulfings i mean i see that obviously but other things picked up the pace and I think that's super.
But again, I'm, you're making my point. You are looking at multiple different things,
right? You're paying attention to a lot of different things. I think the average retail
player out there doesn't and they miss things. Right. So I always, I always love that person
that gets on a call and says, Oh, you know, the market's a 3% lower. It's, it hasn't been,
you know, this low since last Friday, right?
But the thing is, every 10% drop starts with a 1% drop, right? And not every 1% drop is going to
lead to a 10% drop. I'm just saying, I think there's a lot of apathy. I haven't heard anything
out there where people are saying, okay, maybe I need to take down my exposure a little bit,
or maybe if I'm a short-term trader, I need to scale it back.
It's all about your timeframe.
If you're investing for retirement, yeah, you probably don't have to worry about it.
If you're swing trading, you're picking the best names, you're fine.
But if you're really short-term, if you're trying to scalp,
if you're trying to day trade, I just think that what happened last week
would give you some caution.
And if it gets nullified by better price behavior, then great.
We go on to new highs.
But I just think there's too much out there.
Brian, you like this UNH trade down here or what?
People in my Discord have been trying to buy that thing for like a month and a half now.
Now I'm getting ready to buy it, I think.
Dude, I mean, I talked to Sean about an options trade.
Sean likes the leaps.
By the way, shout out.
I will be on JC's show tomorrow morning,
and I will be hosting a traders meetup in Denver with Sean next Monday.
So if you're in the area, come join us.
It's open to everybody.
Nice.
You're there tomorrow morning?
Love it, love it.
Appreciate you guys.
We are getting closer to the market being done,
and I want to shift the conversation a little more towards these earnings.
But that was a fantastic chat.
By the way, this entire thing is recorded.
So if you miss any part of that, you can go back and listen
and always make sure you are following the guys.
Stock Talk, I want to shift it over to you really quickly.
I know Toast is a name you've talked about.
There are better report earnings.
Get your one or two minute thoughts on what you're watching.
Not long that name anymore.
Good enough for me.
Hamid, I want to throw it over to you.
Or if you have anything you want.
But I want to hear these thoughts.
LEU?
That's that one?
Yeah, we have Centris After Hours Genius tomorrow morning.
So I have a lot of reports this week for portfolio names. Just give me
quickly on what you're watching for Centris Energy.
This is the one that is the
mid-cap. They're the only nuclear refiner
in the U.S. Enricher.
Right. Enricher.
Okay. Is there earnings
right now on this play, or is this something kind of
looking for more contracts in the future?
We got long at 96
on May 22nd. It's become a after hours. We got long at 96 on May 22nd.
It's become a core position for me.
I expect there to be some earnings volatility.
This thing has a history of earnings volatility, up, down 20%.
But as long as the trend remains up, I'll remain long.
It's, like I said, a longer-term position.
It's not like a short-term trade.
I think, again, for me, on this asset, it's not as much about the intracorder earnings.
It's more about the rarity premium the asset deserves.
Again, if you want exposure to uranium enrichment, you literally cannot get it in any publicly traded asset in the world except Centris Energy.
And it's a $3.5 billion market cap.
Too small, in my opinion.
I think you'll see U.S. government support downstream.
I think you'll probably see more deals in the rare earth space and in the uranium space from the US government.
They've basically forecasted that they're going to do so.
We saw what happened with MP Materials.
We've seen how other nuclear names like UUUU, which is energy fuels, that thing's moved from $6 to $10 in like three weeks.
You look at UEC, Uranium Energy Corp., that thing's moved from 590 to 10 bucks in three weeks.
Centris Energy more than doubled
in the last month and a half.
So I think the market's putting faith
in these extremely rare precious metals
and uranium assets
because the government's doing that as well.
So we'll see.
But yeah, my thesis isn't about the earnings.
So happy to, I welcome some volatility.
I could maybe add more to the position.
We'll see what that volatility looks like.
But then I have Genius tomorrow morning as well.
But we'll talk about that tomorrow.
Yeah, I see that LEU should be out right around the close.
Hamid, I want to go over to you.
Supermicro and Rivian are two names that I know you were watching.
Could you give me the one minute on each and what you're watching on both of them,
where your eyes will be out first? I see both those numbers should be expected around 4 or 5 p.m. Eastern yeah so
super micro should basically this is the quarter that where they got to come through right like
they were accused of accounting irregularities which is never good and they had their auditors
quit last October they they management basically stuck with their guns and they had their auditors quit last October. Management basically stuck with their guns,
and they brought in other auditors that said that they just need to make a few changes.
The sort of fundamentals were still solid, and they weren't fraudulent or anything like that.
And then last quarter, they had a pretty big miss,
but largely because they couldn't ship products because the NVIDIA
Blackwell chips weren't ready. So this quarter should be a big quarter for them, and they need
to come through considering how much all these sort of big tech companies are spending on CapEx
specifically for data centers, and these guys are on the forefront of the data center execution side.
So SMCI, like I'm pretty excited about them.
It's founder led, is my type of company.
It's like kind of undervalued right now,
assuming they can execute and increase margins
and continue to grow revenue should be pretty good.
But of course we'll see what the results are after market and then adjust if need be.
And then on Rivian, Rivian has got three products where its customers rave about the products.
Three EV vehicles that customers love.
It has a huge following, much like Tesla. It's like a cult-like
following in that its customers love it. Its next generation high volume product is the R2
vehicle, which is like a Model Y competitor. A lot of people think it looks a lot sexier than
the Model Y, but their software technology is not on par Tesla.
But they are following in Tesla's footsteps
in that they're doing all of the surround cameras
and they put in AI capabilities in all of the vehicles.
They just are not there yet in terms of full self-driving,
but they could do over the air updates
because the computing power on each vehicle is very similar to hardware four on Tesla's. So they're following in Tesla's
footsteps, and it's a $14 billion company instead of a $1 trillion company. So if they are successful
in executing, their upside potential is enormous. And with Rivian, the biggest thing that I'm looking for is to make sure that the cash
position continues to stay strong and that their burn is not out of control for them
to run out of money.
They have a strong cash position of like around 7 billion, which is half their market cap,
which is pretty incredible considering how cheap they are.
So that's Rivian.
And then I'm also going to be
loosely paying attention to AMD
and Lucid, who's reporting,
and then Snap is also reporting after hours.
Do you have any more thoughts
on what you'll be watching for AMD?
Then you can go into something else.
Sorry.
Because obviously that's a big one.
I'm excited for that.
I mean, AMD has a shot to really grow revenues in a similar fashion that NVIDIA has
if it wants to show that it's a great second competitor to NVIDIA, right?
But when you put revenue charts of AMD next to NVIDIA, it just puts everything to shame.
NVIDIA puts everything to shame in terms of the competition.
So, you know, what I'd like to look for is like a massive beat on revenue, and then it
could be kind of exciting.
Opendoor is also reporting after hours.
I know it had a couple of weeks here where like the stock was running up quite a bit.
So we'll see whether or not that was justifiable as well.
So those are all interesting little earnings things
to watch out for this afternoon.
Fintwit has gotten excited about this Zeta stock,
which reports earnings today.
I bought a tiny bit. We'll see.
Yeah, people have been asking me about Zeta as well.
I don't know anything about them though
but it's more just a watch list position for me we're just it is a they do marketing um enterprise
marketing work with a lot of actually large companies but as someone who works in the industry
first i can tell you the times are good right now. When stuff does start to pull back,
marketing is going to pull back first and hard.
So, yeah.
Zeta will experience that at some point.
We shall see.
But AMD is the big dog we got reporting.
Anyone up here specifically watching that one?
Well, outside of AMD, you guys didn't cover it, but you're going to have a lot of read-throughs on the consumer.
You got McDonald's for the low-end consumer you
got Disney on tomorrow morning though give me give me some of the to talk
about that after the ones we got coming up after the clothes Arista Networks and
a lab or ones we haven't talked about so we got up start we got toast Arista
labs Arista Networks Zetaeta, Snapchat, Rivian.
That whole thing, yeah, that's all pinned up in the nest above.
You guys can go look at that picture.
Give me a little bit more info on AMD earnings, Starsniper.
I got you.
Sorry, you caught me lacking.
As far as AMD earnings goes today, we're not expecting...
That's fair.
We're not expecting anything absolutely that crazy.
We're expecting a $12.30 move or 6.97% reaction.
When the previous reactions, it's not really anything that crazy.
Three quarters ago, we saw a 10% move.
But aside from that, we've seen pretty nonchalant moves.
The one interesting thing about AMD coming into this is that they're up 75.36% since the last report.
And same with SMCI, they're up 76.41%. But I'll keep it short and sweet.
That's what I got for you.
You didn't give me what I actually wanted.
Wall Street's expecting EPS around 40 cents,
revenue around $7 seven point four two
billion the number should be out around 4 15 p.m eastern for amd i am curious on what the implied
move is for amd uh or like the percentage i know you said it there was it was pretty small but
uh but yeah market is closed a lot of these numbers should be coming out now a lot of them
are like 401 405 p.m eastern something, something like that. So expect them to cross.
It is difficult when these numbers are coming out, by the way.
So we'll kind of take a look at the stock moves,
let you know what is moving,
and get you the numbers as quickly as we can.
A lot of them should be coming out pretty quickly.
Let me know if you see anything moving up. I'm seeing like Amgen reports.
Hey, guys.
I haven't seen any.
A lot of the ones we care about, 405.
Yeah, I've got all my main charts up here ready to go.
We've got about three and a half.
Amgen's down two.
Yeah, Amgen.
$6.02.
If you guys do want to chime in, feel free.
This is that time where we might just interrupt you
with some numbers coming out.
I would watch the SMAs, I guess.
Yeah, SOXX was one that has a very large amd
holding as well it's actually the largest holding and it's up against those former highs
which one what was your the one you said again sorry so smh the etf is up against those former
cycle highs so if that fails uh that would that would leave the semiconductor index to be pretty vulnerable for the foreseeable future.
So I would be watching that.
And if it could stick that landing and break out of that consolidation, I think that would be super constructive.
But seeing that Bitcoin broke down from its consolidation, very curious to see how semiconductors end up resolving.
What do you think about the Bitcoin breakdown there, JC?
Looks a little risk-off in general.
Skyworks came in.
Their forward guidance was above expectations.
Part of the reason that stock is up 8%.
I'm seeing Rivian put out their earnings.
That stock should be moving right now.
Rivian's down 4%.
Oof.
Bouncing a little bit here.
Yeah, sorry.
A lot of stuff coming out for the
next 10 15 minutes or so i mean consolidations are supposed to resolve in the direction of the
underlying trend and that one didn't so that's interesting but i think that there's like an
inherent put in the bitcoin market you know based on where the positioning is so i don't think that any you know correction
could be super severe there's no evidence of it yet uh but certainly going to be uh resistance
i think for the foreseeable future until that gets resolved um i think it's going to probably
have to take some time these numbers do not look good rivian eps was negative 80 cents missing expectations of
negative 65 cents revenue of 1.3 billion beat 1.28 there you go these deliveries whatever um
expects q3 to be the highest delivery quarter of both 2025s of 2025 for both consumer and
commercial vehicles i don't know what segment this is look Did they produce only 6,000 vehicles in Q2?
Yeah, it was pretty bad.
Weak numbers there.
All right, let's see.
What was the stock doing?
It was down.
Check out EBITDA loss for Rivian higher than expectations, 2 to 2.5 billion.
I don't know.
I'd have to dig in.
Let me try and find it.
Check out Revolve while you're at it, Evan.
RVLV, right?
Yes, sir.
RVLV.
Makeup?
It's retail. It's clothing.
Female. For women.
Let's see if I can find one I'm not seeing the expectation
just yet
if Rivian doesn't bounce off this
Rivian's not going to be below the 200 day
selling and below the 50 week
selling that's an ugly look
the Amgen number oh I see 1.8 selling and below the 50-week selling. That's an ugly look.
The Amgen number.
Oh, I see 1.8. By the way.
I see 1.8 billion is what was expected for that number, that loss.
Zeta stock up 5%.
Boom.
Fintwit favorite.
Evan, the earnings gambler, wins again.
At 1620s.
Listen, I did not buy that for the earnings.
I did buy a gamble on Lyft.
It also did have earnings this week.
Zeta just went down too, so all deleted.
I'm the king of just giving you that initial boom.
SMCIs, 31 cents versus 34 cents.
They're down 10%.
Upstart's up 10%.
What do they do?
Upstart, I guess.
It's a money glitch.
Second reference to it in one space, like three, four years later.
Dude, double miss on SMCI.
Gross.
Yeah, ugly, an ugly day of of earnings so far rest of networks EPS 73 cents being expectations of 65 revenue is also a beat for a rest a small beat what is a dad doing ain't that up two and a half
percent ish a lab what about that one sterile labs up 5% nice initial move there I got
the a net numbers it's 221 billion verse 211 billion EPS 70 cents for 63 cents
double beat was that for a lap that is for a net. Oh, okay. I thought it was 73 cents.
Here you go, Stock Talk.
Toast EPS, 13 cents, beats 11 cents.
Cells, 1.55, beats 1.52.
Nice.
I'm not long that name anymore, but nice.
Is the stock up or down?
The stock's moving up just a little bit here, 2.4%.
I think I'm still long it.
Yeah, I got like a 6% move the first week I opened it.
So I was like, whatever, I just took it.
It wasn't a high conviction position, but it moved for me quickly.
So I was like, all right, I just took the profits.
But no, yeah, nice report.
I mean, that chart looked really nice going into this report.
I mean, obviously, you can't always lean on that on binary actions like this.
But yeah, good for them.
I mean, there was a lot of monster moves today on stocks that we talked about, like Exometry, which I also don't own, but it moved up 43% today on earnings.
I talked about it on these spaces a lot.
Manufacturing, pairing manufacturers with suppliers.
I sold it for a nice gain a couple weeks ago and then didn't hold it through these earnings, but 43% move higher on earnings today.
Gained a couple weeks ago and then didn't hold it through these earnings but 43% move higher on earnings today are terrorists
That they announced partnership with Nvidia yesterday that stock was up like 40% today
BWXT was up 17% today, which is a nuclear play obviously, but there's a lot of good earnings reactions
I know there have been some bad ones super micro lowers its fiscal year
2026 guidance from 40 billion to 33 billion. They lowered that last quarter, too.
Wow.
Upstart, pretty nice beat.
$257 million versus $225 million.
EPS, $0.36 versus $0.12.
Did you say that already?
Yep.
We also read out ANET, too.
Super Micro is down 12%.
Supermicro is down 12%.
Jesus.
Jesus.
Coupang's been talked about as, you know, whatever the South Korea, Amazon.
Everyone has an Amazon these days.
Coupang EPS is 0.02.
It's the estimate was 0.07.
Revenue did beat 8.5 or 8.3.
Stock is moving up, actually. almost to that all eyes on the point i know uh jc was mentioning this but uh
amd is six percent six and a half percent of that smh semiconductor etf
big day big day soxx it's also the largest holding i believe it was it's at a vulnerable spot those sammies i'm gonna hop guys i appreciate the invite but
yeah watch those sammies and how that consolidation resolves if it's the downside
it's not a good thing all right well if i could ask you really quickly is there one or two names you kind of that have been weaker that you
would be looking for the downside on okay good good try hey what's going on
gents what's up Danny what is up what is up
want to move on a lab still holding yeah very nice calling that you were early on that
toast too really nice move i mean i sold that one already oh is a lab up big too
oh yeah i thought i was looking at a lab i was looking at a net arista network now eight percent
too a let a a lab probably going to 173 uh just pushed through a nice fib cluster at 140 so this one is just an absolute beast
um caught this one in a nice high tight flag we're up around 60 on these shares now
yeah great call on that great call on that there's some great um analyst commentary that's
come out on a lab too in the last couple of weeks and i think the stock moved on um
first made that big move about a week ago on i think it
was morgan stanley yeah morgan stanley july 30th note from morgan stanley where they raised their
sales multiple raised their pt i think the stock was up like 12 that day when that note came out
and then here you go up another 12 on earnings it actually had broke out just the day before.
I mean, this thing is, it was tight since like mid-May.
Really tight price action.
There was a couple of really good opportunities to get in.
Ooh, Snapchat just reported.
What are we doing?
What are we doing?
We're dropping.
Snapchat every day.
Gross.
Not enough Snapchat is being used.
Double-digit cap down again.
11 out of 14.
I think Gurg's down there.
Gurg, come up here. You're the only one that uses Snapchat.
Come up here and talk about Snapchat.
If I'm giving you full transparency,
if I'm getting a message
from Gurg, Snapchat.
That's how you communicate with Gurg.
At least he's true to his...
He left. Damn it, he left.
He was waiting for a positive reaction. at least he's true to his he left damn it he left he left damn it
he was waiting for a positive reaction
yeah yeah he was waiting for
he said oh shit I'm out
he was looking for plus
12% not minus 12%
yeah these numbers
were a little light
even on their reduced guidance
from Q1 I'm surprised they're just not
they did not catch that advertising revenue pickup that the other big techs did.
Honestly, this is the thing with Snapchat, and this is just anecdotal.
This isn't like a company analysis or anything.
But I don't know if anyone has it installed, but over the last six months,
does anyone get an unusual amount of notifications from the
app who never uses it like i never use it and it's always like check this out this person posted
this and i'm like dude i haven't opened the app in like years so they're like i don't know maybe
i i guess that helps drive short-term traffic but that might also be annoying to people and make
them just delete the app entirely because i couldn't figure out how to turn it off at first.
I went to my settings and I was like, where's the setting for this where I don't receive notifications from Snapchat on what's going on?
So I just like silenced it and then eventually I just deleted the app.
But I don't know if that's happened to anyone else, but that would annoy the hell out of me.
I was getting like 10 notifications a day from Snapchat and I never use it.
So I'm going to have to go ahead and say first first off, I, for one, have been experiencing that as well.
Also at very inconvenient times.
I got to say, I think the problem with Snapchat, I don't think it's actually anything to do with the space or the ad revenue business or anything.
I think it's the actual company.
I think it's the guys in charge.
They've been about to execute for as long as i can
remember yeah i just think they're my opinion is they're dead okay it's like windows messenger
aim like they just got passed that's that's my thought you have tinder on your phone though i
know stock talk's probably got it because match group is up 10 here nah what's up with that call out right there?
Match group did report good numbers.
It's up 10% here.
They own Tinder.
Really?
Where's Brad at?
Is Brad still a long match?
I looked at the chart the other day and I actually really liked it on a high time frame.
I mean, the daily looks great coming out of the show here.
Ooh, Open Door reported too.
What's Open Door doing?
I got to get a whole recap.
I just got a daily Golden Cross.
Open Door numbers are pretty ugly, to be honest.
I think the stock was gapping down initially.
Yeah, it's down 6%, but that's better than it was.
It was down 17 at one point.
Damn, so I guess they're not going to 82 on this earnings.
Not yet.
Still time on the call.
Still the call.
Yeah, wait for the call.
It could go to 82 on the call.
Be ready.
Evan, do you have numbers on VSAT yet?
V-S-A-T?
Yeah, we'll look in a second.
We got AMD coming out in a minute.
In a minute.
I'm seeing Wall Street expecting revenue around $7.42 billion.
I'm seeing EPS. I do have VSAT.'m seeing eps i do have these 40 cents oh yeah i see that 17 cents beats a negative point six eight estimate uh 1.17 billion
versus 1.12 on the sell side all right if someone could i if someone can make sure we have what they are guided for data center revenue. I
don't have that in front of me right now. That's gonna be the
big number for AMD. Can Lisa Sue, Lisa, I can't do it. Sorry.
I tried. There you go. Can she do it? The stock has been
running. Look left. I feel like the expectations are kind of
high here.
Still has room to the upside.
It definitely has room.
If they can get some of these numbers in here,
there is a lot of room to the upside.
AMD is out.
$7.7 billion beating expectations on revenue.
$0.54.
Stock, what's it doing?
It's flat. 2%. okay. Not a crazy move.
Loss of pennies.
The gap estimate.
It's now down.
Their penny's short on the adjusted
numbers, so they're down now.
Gap EPS
is, or non-gap is what gets reported.
I see 40 cents on mine, but
we're still inside yesterday's price action, so it's still flat. Your non-gap is what gets reported. I see $0.40 on mine, but...
We're still inside yesterday's price action, so it's still flat.
It's completely flat right here.
Yeah, $0.48 is the EPS number.
I have that as a beat on mine.
I have $0.49 is the estimate. I don't know. I have that as a beat on mine. I have 49 cents is the estimate.
I don't know. I have 40 cents
for some reason.
That's what I am, 40 cents.
The expectations can differ a little bit.
Doc, move.
I'm looking at adjusted.
Adjusted is what gets reported.
Adjusted is what you'd be
talking about. Guys, next quarter revenue,
8.4 to 9
billion. Wall Street expected
8.2 billion.
Forward guidance for AMD is above
expectations.
Gross margin, 40%.
Yeah, AMD
about 1.5%
after hours.
Maybe closer to 2 now.
What time is the call on AMD?
Sorry, 5 p.m.
Yeah, 45 minutes.
Why did Zeta show it at n a for eps you see that because you don't need to ask those type
of questions when it's a favorite you don't care about eps okay
since when is EPS not applicable?
I don't know, but ANET is absolutely screaming up.
It's 14% now.
15. Oh, my God.
Yeah, you got ANET. Zeta's board of directors approved a $200 million share buyback program.
I see that.
For what?
Increasing the revenue of their guidance.
ANET?
No, Zeta.
I'm looking through the filing
for an EPS number. This looks like there's
going to be an EPS number on here.
Yeah, I don't know
why. I got a headline print that said
not applicable.
Trump just said that the federal
government's going to take control of Washington, D.C.
if they don't get their act together.
The what? We're going to make it beautiful. The federal government's going to take over of washington dc if they don't get their act together the what
we're going to make it beautiful the federal government's going to take over dc if the local
government don't get it together okay alab continuing to run here now up close to 12
i'm just trying to make sure my anet beats your al. I'm just kidding, Danny. We could both win here.
I'm all good with both.
We're all winners.
We're all winners.
We're all winning here.
They're like neck and neck, plus 13.6, plus 13.8.
I just said that because I have them side by side.
I was watching a race.
They're literally like –
looks like they have the same bidders on them right now.
Yeah.
I actually really hate earnings.
Like, it's just so much going on at once. It's too much. Yeah, it is too much. It's a earnings. It's just so much going on at once.
It's too much.
It's just difficult.
And Centris hasn't even reported yet.
What the hell are they doing, man? Come on.
You've mentioned
Spirit Aerosystems.
Do you have SPR?
Yeah, they're the Boeing supplier.
I've never been long that name, but
they're in the kind of aerospace and defense
sort of environment. If i was going to pick like a aerospace parts play like a picks and
shovels play i would probably go with standard aero however that chart today doesn't look as
good as it did months ago it's been pretty distributive volume profile not as cute as it was earlier in the year
when i owned it so i wouldn't think about going back right now honestly like the two aerospace
and defense names i have like i am very chill with like huntington ingles i get shipbuilding
exposure kratos i get drones and unmanned uavs and munitions and precision guidance. And if I really wanted to re-add a third name to the pile,
it would be Mercury Systems, which I used to own
and have traded in and out of a few times.
But if you're looking for precision guidance exposure,
like for precision munitions and all that stuff
that's getting a ton of money,
Mercury Systems is fantastic for that.
And I still really like that company.
But KTOS and HII Kratos and
Huntington Ingalls I think that's if you're gonna if you want US mid cap defense exposure and you
want like exposure to this new and rural era of defense I think those are the two best companies
flat out and so I own those two and continue to own those two and we'll probably own those two
for a long time my Kratos leaps don't expire until like january 2027 so i'll own it till at least then but that kratos will be a hundred dollar stock
more than a hundred dollar stock i have no doubt about it i said that when it was like 30 bucks
i'll say it again now when it's 60 bucks um huntington angles will be 300 plus by the way
market pullback i'm looking did we know that Amazon owns 800,000 shares of iron Q?
I didn't know that. Amazon just put out their 13F filing. I'm looking through it right now.
Is that new? Yeah. So that's up new from last quarter. I'm looking through their 13F,
which just came out. That's a new disclosure? 800,000 shares? Yeah.
Stocks moving higher in after hours.
Yeah, I was about to say, everybody's reading that same thing.
It's up 3%.
That is going to rip.
That's it.
They sold this company called Air Transport Services.
They fully sold out of that.
Sorry. sorry
once i saw there was a stock talks going out like oh he's looking into i got i got him with
a good story there we go new squawker evan all right good job evan amazon Good job, Evan. Amazon. Thank you.
A-Lab also guided up, too.
That's beautiful.
Boy, there's so many names.
I'm looking around, like, what is moving.
AMD is basically slightly up 1%
Rivian's bounced back to being down
only 4.5
Anet up
12, Match Group up 10
Alab up
Boy, some big winners out here
Yeah, I need to get back through and look at everything.
SMCI is down 15.
Oh, God.
Don't look at SMCI.
It's a train wreck.
Toast just reversed hard.
It's down 10% now.
Good thing you sold, Sok Tok.
You're welcome.
What did? Toast reversed hard. It's down 10% now. Good thing you sold, SokTok. You're welcome. What did?
Toast reversed hard. It's down 10%.
Oh, nice. Nice. Okay, well, now I'm not bitter about it.
Yeah, now you're good.
If you liked it at 40, here's your chance again.
Snapchat was the other one we were talking about, down 14%.
Wow, so we have like two, three names up.
10, 12, 14%.
We have like three names down 14, 15%.
Yeah.
What a time.
I'm going to have to look back on this later.
Can you go back and listen to the recording and reminisce?
No, not of this.
I need to actually be able to.
There's just so much going on there that I
honestly retain nothing. I have no idea
what just happened on anything.
So that's a problem.
A little overwhelming there.
Like I said, these earnings are just too much.
I always enjoy doing these spaces.
I live for this, Adam.
I live for this.
And AMD is selling off.
Now it's down a percent.
Yeah, you got to keep an eye.
For people who want to watch Market Momentum,
I know we were talking about this earlier when JC was on.
So Spy today caught the 21 EMA at the lows on the sell.
That's a good sign.
But, but, there's always a but,
SMH is also sitting there and did not defend it at the lows.
So it actually peeped through the 21 EMA at the lows today.
If AMD's earnings, if AMD gets pinned red,
and tomorrow you see SMH red smh is going to be
headed for the 50 day and that will probably push markets down qqq's closed where do the q's close
i wouldn't say probably that would be that's kind of what's trying to hold us yeah that will
and i don't want to ever say for certain you know well i mean that's a i think that's a fair if then
statement if this entire semiconductor space goes down it, you're going to drag the market.
It's also not only that the leader, it's also heavily weighted across a lot of things, right?
Yeah. I do want to also go back to Hamid. Hamid, are you there?
I am, yeah.
I wanted to get your thoughts on Rivian earnings because I was looking at these earnings.
I was actually considering a potential position post this quarter, but I don't think this is a great quarter.
What do you think?
No, I was saying that it wasn't a good quarter, a very disappointing quarter when they released their delivery and production numbers.
So both of which were extremely disappointing to me. It was like
6,000, something around 6,000 deliveries and 10,000 production. The thing that has me still
in Rivian is that the bet is really the R2 and the exceptionally low price point of the company
if the R2 is successful, right? So that's the main thing.
So this dip doesn't necessarily scare me.
In fact, I'm thinking, okay, now it's 10, 15% or in the past week or so, it's gone down
another 10, 15%.
Does it make sense to pick up some more?
If it hits like $10 a share, for sure, I'm going to pick up some more.
They still have $7 billion in cash.
VW is buying their shares.
They just invested $1 billion at $19 a share.
They had to pay a premium, 30% premium over the previous 90-day trading price or whatever.
So there's a lot of investors in this company that, and the company's position, cash position
is very strong.
They have a great product that is coming out next year, and they have three products that
their customers rave about currently.
And they're literally following Tesla's footsteps in terms of execution of like, they make their
vehicles full stack, they make their vehicles full stack they make
their software they have self-driving hardware in them um they have an ai team working on self-driving
features so you know all of the things about this company is that it should not be a 14 billion
dollar company or even a 20 billion dollar company should be valued a lot higher uh it's not because the performance
is not there yet but once the performance comes it could easily be a 5x uh to 10x increase over
the next three three years if the performance comes um so you know um is the quarter disappointing? Absolutely. It's not good numbers, but the bet on this company
is not for this quarter
or even next quarter
or even the first half of 2026.
It's towards the end of 2026 and 2027.
And that's when we'll have the answer
That's when we'll have the answer as to whether or not Rivian is a real company or not.
as to whether or not Rivian
is a real company or not.
Yeah, yeah.
I think, you know, the difficulty they're having is, in my view, that the Chinese have really commoditized electric vehicles at this juncture.
I think, I mean, the Chinese tend to
do that with everything, but I think with electric vehicles, they've really succeeded at this juncture
with just pushing pricing down. And I think for Tesla, this wasn't so much of an issue
five years ago because the competitive environment was pretty underdeveloped, I guess is a fair way to put it.
But there just wasn't a competitive environment five or six years ago,
as far as mass producers of electric vehicles.
And then BYD entered the foray in a big way in late 2019,
when they built their two new EV factories in China that had like a 400,000 vehicle output.
And they flooded the market in Asia with extremely affordable electric vehicles.
And Tesla was able to ride the North American growth wave,
where we saw penetration pick up from like 5% to 6% to 10% plus.
Tesla was able to ride that as like the primary purveyor of electric vehicles to the North American market.
But that growth curve, as we know, lasted about a year and a half before it peaked, right? Tesla
ran from 2019 to like late 2021, you know, when a stock went up, whatever, 800% or whatever went up.
And then EV growth slowed and Tesla stock went down a lot in the following six months, as did most EV stocks.
NIO, all of them sort of tanked when EV growth hit a plateau.
And now I feel like we're coming at a juncture where growth might start picking up in the next few years as rates come down.
But the industry is more commoditized today than it was five years ago.
And so I think pricing power has been eroded broadly.
And in Tesla's case, I think Elon frankly recognizes this,
which is why they're trying to pivot so hard away from selling vehicles
to selling software and selling robots.
Because, look,
this is going to happen with robots too, right?
Like people think that humanoid robots is going to be like some company is
going to make a humanoid robot and then like everyone's going to own one of
that and it's over. No, there's going to be a first mover.
Like there wasn't electric vehicles.
And then in the four to five years after that,
the product will become commoditized.
Like all products do,
like the cell phone was, like the computer was, like so on and so on. That's just inevitable.
You cannot defend first mover advantage for very long, especially nowadays when you have like AI
backing product development and you have, you know, everything digitized and, you know, ease of
access to information globally. Like it's just even harder to defend those moats now than it was just 10 years ago.
So, yeah, I think it's going to be tricky for Rivian.
I think it's going to be really tricky to navigate that environment because they're not going to have pricing power.
they also don't have a mature second or third wing to their business that they can leap into
and sort of, you know, offset the lack of pricing power in electric vehicles.
So I think that's going to be tricky.
And it's part of the reason why, even as a long-time Tesla bull,
I'm not bullish on Tesla's car business.
Like, I'm not.
I don't think it's going to return.
Like a lot of people think it's going to return to form like it was in 2019 and 2020.
I don't think it will ever like ever.
So I'm not bullish on that auto business either.
I'm not bullish on NIOs electric vehicle business either, or Xpengs either, or any
of these.
I think it might be hyperbolic, but I think the alpha for early penetration of electric vehicles
was captured in the last five years.
And I think now it's going to be much harder to capture that alpha
because of commoditization.
Yeah.
I mean, I think that's all a very fair assessment.
And that's a great sort of bear case for probably both Tesla and Rivian.
But one thing that I think, you know, it's pretty you can kind of count on is that BYD and Chinese automakers are probably not going to be allowed to sell their cars in the U.S. in particular.
And the U.S. market is pretty large.
So that's one positive that, you know, like Rivian currently is not international.
So they're only selling in the U.S.
And they only need to sell a couple hundred thousand R2s in order to sort of reach profitability, roughly speaking.
And assuming they could do that, I think that puts them in a pretty good position.
And then everything beyond a couple hundred thousand is sort of upside from there.
And then the second thing is that I of the entire car market is EVs.
So if that sort of increases to 90% over the next 10 to 15 years, even if the car market itself sells fewer cars, which I also believe it will because of robo taxis and car sharing through full self-driving and all that.
well because of robo taxis and car sharing through full self-driving and all that.
Let's say in 15 years from now, we're selling half as many cars, but 90% of them are EVs.
You're still selling four or five times more EVs in 15 years than we do today.
So the market is still pretty large and still growing.
And Rivian has proven that it has technology
that other car companies don't have,
namely the traditional car makers.
So I think you're right in that the Chinese EV makers
are way ahead of the pack.
But what I would worry about more is all of the traditional
car makers over a company like rivian i think like if i was a ford owner or uh not uh vehicle
owner but stock owner or gm or honda or you know vw and all these other car companies i would be
much more worried than i am uh riv. So that's sort of like my take
on that. Yeah, no, I agree. I think the legacy car companies are at risk too. But I think that
in terms of the commodity, what's the, how would I phrase that? Commoditive competition?
In terms of the competition that's, well, yeah, I mean, but it's not just broad commoditization. It's commoditization that's being driven by a set of like four companies, right? And when you put it in that perspective, I think the legacy auto industry, like you look at internal combustion engine vehicles, the legacy auto industry has had like four decades to adjust to that price competition. And they have, right? And we've protected them in various ways through the dealership model we've protected them uh most nations frankly like we sort of pin it on india
and europe and these countries that have steeper measures of uh automobile tariffs but every nation
has in a way protected its own auto industry auto industries are sort of like as you know this
like you know they're considered a an important part of a burgeoning manufacturing economy. And, you know, nations
like to protect their industries. You look at Tata Motors in India, you look at the European
car companies, you look at the American car companies, GM, Ford, you look at the bailouts
that were conducted, you look at the Brazilian car companies, like nations on every continent
on earth have taken measures to protect domestic
automobile manufacturing and so i think in the last 30 to 40 years that has played out and the
survivors have been left standing right and again even through bailouts but now you have a new era
of manufacturing which is very different and has very different supply chains.
And I think the biggest limiting factor for the North American competitors is the lack of massive battery companies in the Western Hemisphere.
Like all of them are in Asia.
All of them.
Seven out of eight of the largest battery manufacturers in the world are in Asia. So it gives not only China a logistical advantage, but it makes U.S. producers of automobiles have to seek not only distant supply chains, but build brand new supply chain relationships that they didn't need in the prior 30 to 40 years to build internal combustion engine vehicles.
But they now do need to build electric vehicles, including rare earths, including batteries. And Rivian has, in a way,
secured that supply chain, obviously enough to produce thousands of vehicles. But
it's proving to be a venture that is not going to be immediately profitable and maybe not profitable
for a very long time. Like 2.25 billion of EBITDA burned this
year, that's steep, right? Yeah, they have 7 billion in cash, but then you're also talking
about volume that's dwindling and competition that's increasing. And now with the new China-EU
deal that they're negotiating, the main subject of that is Chinese automobiles being sold into
Europe. That's what China wants. And if they get that,
that's a big if. That is a massive risk to all North American electric vehicle companies,
including Tesla. And so I don't know if and when that'll happen, but those negotiations have been
going on for like four months between the European Union and China. And China's main point of
contention is we want to sell Chinese cars into Europe.
So we'll see. We'll see what happens on that front. But yeah, like I said, I think you make
some good points. I think Rivian does have some advantages. I do agree that legacy auto companies
are maybe more at risk than Rivian is, but I do think it's harder to make electric vehicles
than it is for internal combustion engines. I think the supply chains are newer and I think
the adjustment in terms of price competition has just begun to happen. Whereas with internal combustion engine vehicles,
it's been happening for decades. So yeah, I don't know. We'll see. We'll see. But it's not an area
of focus for me in the markets at this point. Like electric vehicles is just not an area of focus for
me. Even with Tesla, like it's my focus is on the software component and the robotics component,
which I think are much more interesting.
And yeah, I think it's going to be tough for that theme to get hot again until we have the infrastructure to facilitate another big three to four year boom like we saw from 2019 to 2020. Because I don't think EV market share takeover is going to be this gradual bleed out that, frankly, I even
thought it was going to be five years ago. I don't think it's going to be that anymore. I think
infrastructure limitations have played out. Price competition has played out. And I think now this
is more a game of how quickly do you build the infrastructure to facilitate 20 to 30 percent adoption and then you make the push
as opposed to making the push for adoption now without the infrastructure and then running into
these headwinds uh with the pace of acceleration like we had in late 21 and we probably will have
again whenever this next rate cut cycle is over in four or five years. So yeah, I don't know.
I'm kind of rambling at this point, but that's my thoughts on electric vehicles.
Yeah. I mean, all of that I think is total valid arguments and great arguments again for the bear
case. But when you look at, for example, like a Waymo that is being estimated value of $200 billion for its robo-taxi service with
expected 2026 revenues of $700 million. And then Waymo is sort of like building these
add-on capabilities on top of a Jaguar I-PACE vehicle. I mean, like with a $200 billion
valuation, does it make sense for a company like Google
to pick up Rivian and just build their own cars, self-driving cars?
You know, even if they paid 100% premium for Rivian, it would still be sub $30 billion,
right?
And then now they have their own vehicle.
They can, you know know put their sensors wherever
they want they already have built-in sensors similar to teslas so like i think rivian is in
a very unique position in that it's one of the only car companies that has the full tech stack
and great vehicles already ready to and the manufacturing already ready to go it's like
it's like a startup in a box if you will for like way less than it would cost a ready to go. It's like a startup in a box, if you will,
for like way less than it would cost a company to go build their own startup to this phase
because it takes roughly 10 years at a minimum,
assuming you put together an elite team
to catch up to where Rivian is.
And how much is that 10 years worth
to somebody who wants to enter this business
with self-driving cars.
So, you know, I don't know if Google would ever do that.
I don't know if Uber would ever do that.
But, like, it just seems like they're in a great position to either get acquired or make it on their own.
And I think one of those two things is going to happen for them over the next three years.
Yeah. for them over the next three years.
Were you all just going to play the mute on mute game?
Yeah, I couldn't tell if anybody else was talking there,
but yeah, I had a question for you, Hamid.
I'm just curious of that $200 billion valuation that, you know, you're saying, talking about Waymo here, in regards to the that Google's backing them? What do you think gives Waymo any potential edge against all the others
in this self-driving car race? Oh, I think they're toast. I mean, the $200 billion number is something
that analysts throw out. I mean, I don't put any weight in what analysts say at all. But I'm just saying, like, if other people are viewing Waymo's business as a $200 billion valued business, I certainly don't.
I think they're already lost to robo-taxis from Tesla, basically.
And I think Tesla is going to dominate.
But if you were Google, if you were Uber, if you were somebody who actually wanted to win in the robotaxi business, what is your play?
Like put yourself like in a, you have an abundance of resources, unlimited resources type of position, which is what kind of Google is in.
Uber doesn't have unlimited resources, but it has plenty of resources.
So if you want to win in this race, what should you do to compete with Tesla?
Because Tesla will destroy you.
I mean, there's no question about it.
Unless things change.
If they go the way they are right now with Waymo is having $150,000 vehicles with all these sensors and two CEOs trying to run the company and grow it slowly and methodically to where next year's revenues is expected to be sub $1 billion.
By the way, it's just ridiculously slow growth pace.
I mean, if you want to win in that race, you have to do something drastically different.
And you have to own the full stack.
And you have to do it way cheaper than $150,000 cars.
And you have to do it way faster deployments and you need
access to a shitload of cars.
Those are just like fundamentals that you have to have in order to compete with Tesla.
Otherwise you're toast.
So that's my view, by the way.
It's not shared by everyone.
In fact, people on X call me an idiot for having that view.
But I'm just saying like, that's just my view on it.
And I don't think Waymo is in a great position.
I think people find it controversial,
mostly because you've voiced both sides, right?
You'll talk about, hey, Tesla, you're going to kill everyone.
But then also, hey, Elon, stop complaining over the pay
package, right, and kind of going back and forth.
But those are, those are. I don't know I'm not wrong
I'm saying it's good to be able to criticize both sides. I think people that's where they get caught up
Most people are like only one direction, you know
Yeah, but like this kind of idiotic like I think it's just silly to think that a person can do no wrong or have like
No flaws, right? I think like people either have that view of Elon where he can do no wrong and
has no flaws, or they think he's evil and a Nazi. Like there is an in-between where he is the most
accomplished human being on the fucking planet and an amazing CEO, but also he's got these serious
flaws, right? Like where he's asked, he just got compensated a $29 billion package by basically a board that he controls.
And Tesla in his entire history has only made $29 billion of profit.
So they're basically giving him 100% of all the profits Tesla has ever made.
And by the way, he is the largest shareholder.
I mean, it's just like a set of unprecedented things, right? So you can be
critical of him as, okay, you're being too greedy as a CEO asking for too much money, yet recognize
the accomplishments that he's made and recognize that he is the absolute best CEO for Tesla.
But so is Mark Zuckerberg for Meta. But how much does he make? Like nothing. Like he doesn't get compensated, basically.
He just gets the basics.
I mean, it's a rounding error, his compensation.
Or Bill Gates when he was CEO of Microsoft.
Or basically any founder-run company where the founder still owns a majority chunk of the company, they never gets additional stock. They're usually like shedding stock.
Jeff Bezos was in the same boat, right? So.
Can I ask a question real quick? Why do people,
why do people give Tesla so much credit for robotaxis? Like genuinely,
I want to know the answer because like,
and I think a lot of people's like narrative on Waymo is interesting because
like the cars don't cost $150,000. That was like a've like built their own lidar stack the car the cost of the cars like
especially next gen i think will be somewhere around like 60k and it's and that's with all
the extra sensors and everything and like i live in austin and i can go get a waymo right now and
they're all over the city and like for as much as much as people talk about, oh, the Tesla robo-taxi network in Austin
and they have a bigger area,
like you can't even get a Tesla robo-taxi in Austin.
There's like nine of them.
There's like nine of them that even exist
and you have to be an insider
to even ride in one with a safety driver.
Meanwhile, I can go flag a Waymo right now
and go downtown.
You know, like it's funny.
Like it's like Waymo is,
I just don't, I don't understand why people think Tesla still think they're going to, like, take over the whole industry.
It's just baffling to me.
Here's why.
Because Waymo is doing it way too cautiously, way too slow.
They've been at it for over four years, if I'm not mistaken.
Dude, they're going to, like, five new cities this year.
And they're going to, like, five or ten more next year.
I mean, like, I don't...
Right.
And Tesla literally has launched less than 60 days
ago and they're about to be in five different cities no they're not dude they've got nine
cars in austin they can't even service the first market they're in like here's one of the things
that i would say though is is there is a fundamental difference and i know stock talk
can come in and talk to this if tesla can get in and get their system to work then you have what they prove is that you don't
need the whole lidar system which costs you can go in but but puts the fixed costs at a point that
that isn't really competitive with with tesla just the vision-based camera system so if tesla
can prove it that's kind of an advantage they have there and the kind of scalability of it
uh and if they can't and you need lidar then that would be a big advantage for for waymo but i think
that's that is one of the big differences that's going on there stock talk i know that's something
that you talked about yeah if their robo taxis before you jump if their robo taxis cost 25 grand
versus everyone else at double that for sure over the long term you would think that that that becomes
an advantage i'm just not sure like i'm not sure people are really like understanding what the cars are going to cost for, for Waymo and
these other robot taxi players when they get to scale. The 60 K number, where are you getting
that from? Is there any source? I was going to comment on that. I didn't realize it was so cheap,
but yeah, I'm looking it up right now. Uh, early lighter systems costed $75,000 per unit, but Waymo's high-end
lighter costs are now likely $5,000 to $10,000 per unit.
I do believe you're underestimating maybe the car base, but yeah, anywhere from $50,000
to $80,000.
So yeah, anywhere from $60,000 to $90,000, let's say.
So it is a lot cheaper than I thought it was.
The other big difference is I'm not going to buy a Waymo and have a Waymo that I just own and can't drive.
But I can buy a Tesla and my Tesla can also turn into a Robotaxi.
So it's got dual purpose.
Yeah, that's fair.
I think that is really the killer application is if Tesla becomes the first company to allow the ownership of Robotaxi,
whereas the other players are more focused on running the services themselves.
So I think that's definitely a key differentiator.
One way to look at it is that like for the past three years, Apple has been trying to
catch up to have any kind of AI capabilities similar to ChatGPT, right?
have any kind of AI capabilities similar to ChatGPT, right?
And Elon did that in like, what, less than one year
with Grok catching up to ChatGPT in terms of his capabilities.
So Elon works on a different scale than everybody else does.
And clearly his robo-taxi strategy, if it pans out,
which, I mean, it appears to be panning out, is going to work.
So your complaint about them not having enough vehicles for you to be able to get it right now
is easily solvable. I mean, they're rolling them out very quickly. I also don't know where you get
the nine vehicles in Austin number from, but they expanded. I think it is 11. So it's not,
I don't think it's that, I don't think they expanded it that far out yet I'm not sure
no their license plate trackers there's there's license plate track yeah Omar Omar was like when
they went down and had they everyone took like hundreds of rides him and all the other Tesla
guys basically wrote down all the license plate numbers inside of a sheet for like a week.
And there was 11 that they found.
On launch, right?
So the question is, how many did they expand it to once they expanded the region?
And I'm telling you that I'm telling you in this region, like I take, like I'm all over this region every day and there's, you cannot find them.
They're like, I don't know, maybe there's more than 11 now, but you just just do, you don't see them. But at the same time, the scale thing makes sense,
right? Because I think the statistic is in five hours, Tesla's factories could recreate the
entire Waymo fleet. Yeah, that's fair. Like that amount of cars. So yeah. Yeah, that's fair. But I
mean, I think like if Waymo wants to, like there, there's some like aerial shots of like a Waymo
parking lot that had a thousand vehicles like a couple of weeks ago. So like, there's some, like, aerial shots of, like, a Waymo parking lot that had a thousand vehicles, like, a couple weeks ago.
So, like, it's not like Waymo's automotive partners are incapable.
I mean, they're partnered with automakers that can produce millions of cars a year, right?
So, it's like, I don't think that's the bottleneck for Waymo.
That's where, like, this narrative, I think, is a little stale.
Also, it has, like, okay, this is the problem.
This is the problem with Waymo. First of all,
it's owned by Google, which is run by Sundar Pajai, who I have major problems with. And then
Waymo itself has two additional CEOs that run it. And like, it's just an extremely slow moving
company, period. I mean, there's no question about it. These guys basically have been doing self-driving since 2004.
And they launched their self-driving services in Phoenix, which is where I live, four or five years ago.
And they priced Waymo rides at a higher price than you could get rides in Uber.
I mean, there's just so many little mistakes that they're making left and right.
And this company is not going to beat Tesla.
Promise you.
Unless something big changes, they're not going to beat Tesla.
I mean, I do agree with you that Waymo has been super slow moving through most of their history.
But in Austin, at least with the Uber launch, the rides cost the same as a normal Uber X.
So there's no pricing differential in,
at least in the Austin market.
I think they're testing different pricing options,
but yeah.
Again,
if you,
if you are a Waymo,
you should have decided not to partner with Uber,
in my opinion,
and just undercut Uber by like half any,
anywhere Uber goes for 10 bucks,
you should be going for five.
They charge 20,
you should be charging 10 and you should be getting people into your own app as opposed to partnering with uber who can drop you at any time
Again, like it's missed to me. It's like mistake after mistake after mistake after mistake
That's compounded and Tesla is making zero of these mistakes like literally zero
So me you don't own any Tesla right now.
It's a trillion fucking dollar company. But can I ask you, self-driving cars,
it feels like something we're talking about trillion dollar opportunities.
Yeah. But I, okay. So to me, valuation matters, right? If Tesla wins and beats Waymo's $700
million revenue number next year what's
the price give me the price because you're never going to get to a good value spot on tesla it's
never been but like give me more like a price and an overvalued part it would get to up 200 i would
consider it again but the other thing that i have been disappointed about is that their car business
should not be shrinking you know like i think that's just a reflection of Elon making so many promises that he hasn't
been delivering on and, you know, over promising and under delivering as he did with the Cybertruck
500 miles, you know, $40,000 starting price.
And it ends up being 300 miles and $70,000 or $80,000 starting price.
So like, you know, Elon has its flaws.
Like you can't just be thinking that Elon is this god that doesn't make mistakes.
He certainly does.
And he is beatable.
It's just that Waymo is not going to beat them, beat him unless they change things tomorrow.
You know what I mean?
Like they need to change things pretty drastically.
They need to be much faster moving. They need to abandon their sort of LIDAR path, in my opinion.
They need way lower cost vehicles and they need to like rapidly be making these vehicles. And
the other speaker is wrong that there isn't a bottleneck for the vehicles. Yes, there is.
If Waymo wanted to have a hundred thousand vehicles deployed next
year they just couldn't do it right they they don't have the capacity to build that many cars
uh jaguar ipaces doesn't doesn't make them so where are they going to get the cars from so
yeah they got to solve a lot of problems and uh tesla has none of those problems, essentially, in the robotaxi part.
The thing is, we don't know, we do not yet know,
if a pure vision-based approach is going to work.
It works in Austin.
It works in Austin, right?
It may work in the next place they expand.
San Francisco, I know they're doing some rides with employees and stuff over there
and select influencers.
My view is this.
If Tesla can encompass three full cities
with no geofence
and operate on a vision-pure system
with no LiDAR in three complete cities,
I don't care which cities they are.
It could be Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix,
whatever you want to pick.
I'm talking about no geofence.
If Tesla can do that, it's over.
Well, stop talking.
The geofencing criticism is kind of silly
because it has to be geofenced
in order for you to have geofence.
No, no, yeah, I'm not criticizing the geofence.
I'm saying once they are able to operate in a city
without the geofence,'m saying once they are able to operate in the city without the geofence then
that's industry breaking but the geofence might be the entire city you know what i mean like is
that acceptable that's what i'm saying yeah okay okay but there would have to be some geofence you
can't just get a car in like phoenix and then go to like oklahoma with it right like there's
no no no no i know well that's that's that's well, that's twofold to that.
First of all.
We have to assume that eventually the tech will be able to do that.
But right now and even then, the inhibiting factor there might be the fact that, you know, we have states and states have motor vehicle regulations that are different from state to state.
motor vehicle regulations that are different from state to state. And so, yeah, there would have to
be some kind of federal framework that is adopted by all 50 states, which by the way, the DOT is
working on currently, right? There's an autonomous framework being worked on the DOT currently.
If all 50 states ratify that autonomous framework, then yes, you will be able to do that.
But let's not imagine and speculate on when that might be. That might be 10 years down
the road. But whenever that framework is ratified, adopted, and assuming all 50 states take it,
whatever, maybe 40 states will take it and then you can't go to the other states. But the point
is, is that the geofence thing is there mainly for safety right now because they want to know,
they want to make sure that the vehicle can operate flawlessly within the geofence thing is always there mainly for safety right now because they want to know they want to make sure that the vehicle can operate flawlessly within the geofence allow people to
ride and then slowly you know roll it out and we did that one more thing it's also uh for
availability of vehicles meaning if you're deploying let's say 100 vehicles in a particular
area the the more congestion.
Yeah, exactly.
You need to make sure the cars are available within like 10 minutes, right?
Otherwise.
Exactly.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You want it to be like operational.
But the big difference is, and I keep seeing this comparison like from the Tesla skeptics
on Twitter, and they'll say, well, what's the difference?
Like Tesla has a geofence in Austin.
Waymo has a geofence in Austin.
Like I don't get it. What's the difference? Aren't they doing the same thing?ence in Austin Waymo has a geofence in Austin like I don't get
it what's the difference aren't they doing the same thing and isn't Waymo further ahead
well first of all yes Waymo is further ahead but Waymo is only further ahead if your measure
of progress is deployment scale right Waymo is in a lot of cities they'll be in 10 more cities by
the end of next year and so if you're. And so if your measure of success is
how much square mileage are you covering
with autonomous driving,
then yes, Waymo is the leader.
But if your measure is
who has the better solution,
then I still think Tesla's the leader.
Because Tesla's solution,
this is what it purports to do.
You can take any vehicle from any manufacturer with a basic set of cameras, okay?
Basic set of 10 to 15 cameras, maybe under 10 cameras,
depending on what the next hardware generation is going to look like for Tesla.
We don't know what the exact number of cameras is going to be on the new hardware for Tesla
that Samsung is going to make. But whatever that number is,
the thinking is, okay, if I put those cameras on any car or on any vehicle at all, a boat,
a plane, that it can operate autonomously, that is the end goal. That is an entirely different technological proposition than
what Waymo is saying. Waymo is saying, if I put a $150,000 to $300,000 LIDAR system on top of your
car, it can drive autonomously. Like, okay, that's very expensive and inefficient. And it prevents
the existing fleet from being mobilized. Like, again, Tesla's millions of cars that regular people own. If the
day comes that they can prove this system, and we're not at that day yet, I'm not implying that
they've done it already. But if the day comes, they can prove that autonomy can be achieved
without a LiDAR system with just cameras. That is industry breaking. Like that is revolutionary.
Like, I don't I think that's what people are missing. They don't understand. Like that will change the world of transportation overnight because you don't need to go run around and drop, you know, a $250,000 premium LiDAR system on top of a van in order to do it.
You can just install cameras and the van can drive itself.
That's industry breaking.
So Tesla has the ability to execute on that and do that. Will they do it?
I don't know. We'll see. There's a lot of factors that go into that, you know, and we also can't
pretend that there aren't other companies working on vision based systems. If you read Waymo's last
white paper, they basically conceded this. Anybody can go read this, go look up Waymo white paper,
find the most recent one, read it. Their scientists said, we believe that at a certain juncture, pure vision may be the better solution.
Now, they haven't pivoted yet because they're still using LiDAR, but they have made that concession themselves.
That as AI gets better, pure vision may be the cheaper, more efficient solution.
Elon, as usual, was ahead of the curve on that and
wanted to do something that everyone thought was impossible. And people still think it's
impossible, even though there are robo taxis driving in Austin and no one has died.
No one has died. Right. Like people were saying bodies would pile up. Like if you go look at the
Tesla skeptics, one comment, one comment. Nobody has died is not the best bar.
No, that's the only bar.
No, no, that's the only bar. Because
if your bar is no accidents have happened,
like, what? Accidents
are going to happen. Yeah, so Omar
made this point today on the Tesla space over on
Wolf, and he was saying, but just
with the amount of RoboTaxi
miles that have been driven, there should have been
like, I think he used the number 57 was his, just based on averages, the law of robo-taxi miles that have been driven, there should have been, I think he used the number 57,
just based on averages, the law of averages,
human drivers would have had 57 accidents already.
So I thought that was actually pretty interesting
to dig into the statistics of what humans would have done
in the same time span.
Yeah, I mean, we currently have a system
where people drive their own cars, right?
And what, 150 people die every day every day
because they're drunk or not paying attention or on their phone or like ai doesn't do any of that
stuff it is safer it will be safer it will be safer is probably the better way to phrase that
it will be safer like we humans are not we we're operating, you know, fucking 4,000 pound ball of steels going 100 mile down the highway.
Like, I guess some people like to drive.
I like to drive, too.
But, you know, outside of liking to drive for leisure, if you're talking about, like, the safety of global public transportation, it should be autonomous.
Planes, boats, cars should be autonomous.
They should be run by software because software is better than humans at everything.
I mean, that's not an anti-human take.
It just is.
Would you trust your opinion on a random topic more than even today's llms i wouldn't
if it was a topic i knew nothing about i would probably defer to them and that's at today's level
of development in five years those things will be so good that you won't even hesitate to defer
to them on things that you don't know about you know most people already are like i said i already
am you know if i don't i mean yeah i'll go and verify if it's something important, like a stock I'm researching or something.
I'll go and verify the information.
But if it's something I'm just trying to find out quickly, I just look, I mean, I use it the same way I used Google five years ago.
And I think most people do.
And so if we're already, whether consciously or subconsciously, deferring to the technology, you're already doing it.
Right. consciously or subconsciously deferring to the technology. You're already doing it, right?
So it's only a matter of time that the technology's job now
is to just prove to you that it's better than you
because some people don't believe that still.
And as the technology proves to you,
whether it's via LLMs or robotics or humanoids or autonomous driving,
all of these are just renditions of artificial intelligence,
the technology will prove to you that it is better at doing whatever you think you can
do better than it.
It will.
It's just a matter of time.
And once people start realizing is they'll realize why these AI stocks keep going up
in a straight line and why like all the money in the world is going to this thematic because
people know what's at the end of the rainbow. There's a huge historical pot of gold at the end of this rainbow that has never been
seen before and everyone is racing to get to it. And this race and autonomy is just one part of
that race, as is the race in robotics, as is the race in everything else you can think of in AI,
in chips. This is all heading to one place.
And all of this, all of these dollars, these trillions of dollars of global investment
are heading to one place.
And that's to this attempted singularity where this, where, where AI can do everything we
can do.
Like people are going to, you're going to blink if you're, if you're young, if you're
in your thirties or forties or fifties and you're going to blink and you're going to
be like, wow, everything is AI. Like you're in your 30s or 40s or 50s and you're gonna blink and you're gonna be like wow
everything is ai like you're gonna blink and and you're talking about basic roles um you know i was
talking last year about kpmg and some law firms in new york i have a buddy who's a law firm in new
york i won't name the law firm but it's a very big law firm, and they replaced like a third of their peer legal staff with Enterprise LLM.
Pierce Inspector.
Pierce Inspector.
By the way, you want to hear something
that may interest you?
Stock Talk? I don't think we've heard this before.
President Trump just said,
J.D. Vance is the most likely candidate
for the next term.
Rubio would be good alongside him.
Interesting. I thought for sure he was going to go for the running term. Rubio would be good alongside him. Interesting.
I thought for sure
he was going to go for the running mate.
I thought he was going to go
for one of his kids. We'll see.
Doc Talk, sorry.
I thought that was something that you might be a little
interested in.
Not quite the IonQ Amazon thing.
Not sure it's that relevant right now, but yeah.
That's cool. We'll see.
I saw someone post earlier today
the betting markets for who will be the next president.
Someone commented below it.
It's a little too early for that.
My first thought was
the degenerates wait for no one.
That's true.
They wait for no one.
The Jets are going to win the Super Bowl within this decade. yeah i mean jess the jets are gonna win the super
bowl within this decade dude the jets are not gonna win the super bowl what are we talking about
i didn't say this year sorry guys i said this decade towards the end of the spaces guys evan
gets into this just went into fantasy land yeah i know we just went we just went off the rails i
thought we were talking about realistic stuff about a second ago but now we're talking about
the jets winning the super bowl no but yeah i mean dude this ai stuff we should do a space on
just like the future of ai technology and have some guests on because i would love to do like
a two-hour space on that because yeah i i i don't know i think everyone's just missing the forest
for the trees when it comes to this stuff everyone's worried about like what's the
intracorder earnings for these things how How much money are LLMs making?
Like, these are all the wrong things to be focused on.
People need to like,
see what the progress of technology
that's happening in front of their eyes is.
Like, and LLMs,
I have to keep kind of going back to
because they're like the public rendition of AI.
That's what everyone thinks AI is,
even though that's not at all what it is.
But people don't even know how to use them right.
Like, people don't know how to use them. They don't know how how to use them they don't know how to prompt them they don't know like what
they can actually ask them like you know every time my buddy asked me a question that like i
don't know the answer to i'm like dude just ask your llm like that's it that's a question lm could
answer and like people are still like googling things and i'm just like why are you googling
that dude you can get your answer way more quickly and have backed up sources and links.
Like large language models are just a teaser
of what this is capable of, right?
And now you're going to have Elon by the end of the year
will have a million GPUs in a cluster.
Zuckerberg will have, I think, 2 million GPU clusters.
NVIDIA sales are going
fantastic still now they found a way to purvey a new h20 model to China AMD is
starting to pick up a little bit of traction on the volume side although the
earnings side of the business still whatever to me but the volume side is
starting to pick up some traction and all the meanwhile everyone's capex is
going through the roof you look at Microsoft and met's capex is going through the roof.
You look at Microsoft and Meta's capex, like it was already super high estimates.
They just blew it out of the water again.
Satya Nadella went from an $80 billion commitment to $120 billion commitment.
Like these guys have all the money in the world.
They have all the money.
Those seven or eight companies have all the money,
and they're all spending it on the same thing.
You don't think
the technology is going to get better it's pretty hard for me to imagine that it's going to get
better rapidly i think by the end of next year people will be shocked and i think all the ai
stocks will be a lot higher too and then eventually you're going to have within the next two to three
years you're going to have robotics pop up and Tesla or somebody else is going to introduce
a humanoid robot. And then that's going to become a mega theme. And you're going to see hundreds of
billions of dollars invested in robotics. And then before you know it, three or four years,
people will be like, oh, dude, I just bought a humanoid robot for my brother's birthday. And
it's in his kitchen. Like this stuff is coming now. It's not like, oh, I'll wait 20 years. This
stuff is coming now, like around the corner i'll wait 20 years this stuff is coming now
like around the corner and the markets are telling you that too the price action is telling you that
in these stocks why have these stocks through i don't know what there have been 10 10 corrections
since 2020 let's say maybe more maybe 15 i don't know i'm spitballing here there have been a lot
of 10 plus corrections since since 2020 right all of these stocks all of the market leading as stocks are
higher through the corrections right through 20 30 40 pullbacks post correction higher higher new
highs new highs new highs yeah they're volatile they should be but what is that what is that the
market telling you that for five years these stocks just get bid and bid and bid and bid and the dips get bought and they get bought at the 200-day, they get bought at the 50-day, they get bought at the 21, bought, bought, bought.
Market caps go higher and higher and higher.
Like, to me, that's the market speaking very loudly that this is not hype and this is not a joke.
And the difference between this and that same sort of price action in the dot-com bubble is in the dot-com bubble, none of these companies had earnings.
Not none, but most of these stocks that were going parabolic didn't have earnings.
You can, anybody can go back, even if you didn't trade the dot-com bubble, go back and
look at some of the stocks that went the most parabolic.
They had no earnings.
Right.
And there are stocks like that today too.
You know, like the SMR stocks, Oclo, SMR, NNE.
These companies have no revenue.
Could they go down 50% on earnings?
Absolutely.
Right. Dox, Oclo, SMR, NNE, these companies have no revenue. Could they go down 50% on earnings? Absolutely, right?
But so there are high risk plays in this market,
like there always are,
but there are also stocks that are making money doing this.
You look at Meta's earnings, look at Microsoft's earnings,
look at these guys, they're just piling on big beats on top of already sky high expectations.
And you look at the picks and shovels underneath,
how many 40% moves have we seen in mid cap pick and shovel ai plays this earning season like 20 there were three
today xmtr aip um like indy went up 40 a couple weeks ago like all of these random stocks that
are slightly associated to ai or semis or autonomy or anything are going up 40, 50. The second they get touched,
right? Like these things have no volume. They get touched by a little bit of volume and they just
blow up. It's what's happening left, right, and center. I can't count how many industries,
not even just the semis, not even just the AI stocks, I mean, just the self-driving robotic stocks.
Like everything is just skyrocketing the second they get any sort of relevance to this theme.
So I don't know.
That's the market speaking loudly.
Is it a bubble?
Yeah, most big bull markets are bubbles, but you just don't know when it's going to stop.
You know, it could stop next week.
It could stop three months from now.
But, you know, in my view, you have to dance while the music is playing and just capture as much alpha as you can. But in
a few years, there will be real earnings. There will be real transformative economy transforming
things that happen here. Margins will be transformed. Efficiency will be transformed.
You'll see robotics deployments and warehouses and factories everywhere. Like it's just going to be a mega wave of productivity and efficiency,
I think. And I think, you know, people, bears who have wanted the market to go down for five years,
I think that's what they've been facing. They've been facing the secular narrative of maybe the
biggest technological revolution of our lifetimes that's going to happen with ai like i really don't think that that's
hyperbolic to say um and we will all be here for it because i don't think it's that far away
you played like some dramatic piano music at the end of that or something
a little mic drop moment yeah get to the spot ai is coming
i think one of the things that we've talked a lot that we've kind of talked a little bit here about
that you even said it there right now people see AI through chatbots, and that's really it. And this real-world aspect of it, I don't think anyone fully believes that much in at this point in time.
I mean, obviously, Nose is coming soon or whatever, but I don't think that belief has really come yet in the real-world AI.
It's hard to believe, you know?
That's why.
It's hard to believe.
I wonder what the chat GBT moment is for it.
I wonder how long that verb stays as well.
The chat GBT moment will be the first commercial...
The chat GBT moment for robotics will be the first commercially available humanoid robot.
That'll be the chat GBT moment.
And people will buy them.
And they'll be in people's houses.
Is there anything...
Is there anything Tesla can do with a robo-taxi to make it the robo-taxi?
I don't think it's going to be RoboTaxi because I think it's already pretty well forecasted.
I think that's going to be a big theme, but I don't think that that's going to be the chat GPT moment.
I think the chat GPT moment, the next one is going to be in robotics.
I think the robotics charts are all telling you that too.
Charts are all telling you that too.
But yeah, I think what you'll see is that
that's the way you take this software and make it real
and make people realize what the capability of it is.
Because for now, too many people see this as a glorified Google.
Too many people look at LLMs and say,
well, it's just Google search with faster,
more efficient results. That's all it is to me. Like people aren't contextualizing it as artificial
brains, which is what they have effectively become. And yeah, there's still models. Yeah,
they're still, you know, based on the information they consume. All of those things are true.
They're not actually natively thinking on their own but for all intents and purposes they still function as a brain
right like it doesn't have to be a brain to be a brain you know what i mean it just has to
function as a brain and today's ai software functions for all intents and purposes as a
brain now in two or three generations, it'll be even more
brain-like than it is today. And at that juncture, you put it into hardware, and that's when you get
your ChatGPT moment. That's when the public says, oh, shit, this robot can talk? Well, yeah,
your LLM talks to you. Oh, shit, this robot can see what's happening in the kitchen? Well, yeah, your LLM talks to you. Oh, shit, this robot can see what's happening in the kitchen?
Well, yeah, you can already do that today with ChatGPT.
Take your phone, flip the camera, point it at your stove,
and it'll tell you what's in the pot, okay?
When you take those abilities...
Oh, this robot can shoot a gun?
That's fun.
Yeah.
That's what happens, too, right?
That pathway is, yeah.
Take a picture of a gun and show it to ChatGP and ask it how to shoot it and it'll tell you how.
These things know how to operate hardware because they have read the literature on how to operate hardware.
They know.
So now the only step that's left is taking that leap and taking the software and putting it into capable robotics hardware systems and then
the public will go oh shit that'll be the oh shit moment where everyone's like this is what the
promise was the whole time but i don't know how far away
is my cutout for me
sometimes that happens on
these spaces we're getting a lot of these
live earnings calls going on right now by the way
AMD etc
I also not fully
sharing all the numbers on the spaces today how accurate
they've been but
a lot of people enjoying this one AMD stock stock down two and a half. Stock talk, we lost you a little bit ago.
Oh, you did? Oh, damn.
Yeah, 30 seconds.
People are going to say, okay, what happens when you take the software and put it into a robot?
And now that robot can think, it can see, it can interact with its environment.
It can respond to questions.
It can improve and learn on the go.
LLMs can already do all of those things.
None of those abilities that I just named, identifying objects, engaging with the environment,
creating video, engaging with video, reading text, responding in voice, hearing in voice,
picking up sound, all of those things, LLM models are already capable of, nothing new.
Now you take that and you put it into a robot, what do you have?
You have the stuff
of science fiction right like that's the star wars robots everyone grew up like that's what it is
right it's just it's just a software plugged into a capable robotic system that's coming
that is coming very soon and yeah people will be surprised by that i think even though's obvious that it's coming, people are still going to be surprised by it.
They're going to be like, what?
Dude, I could talk to this thing and it walks around and it could pick up my dishes and
move them to the sink.
This is crazy.
But it's really not that crazy.
Because the technology is already there.
It's about that bridge between the software and the hardware. That's what people
are working on right now. The tooling, right? Elon's talked about how for robotics, he's like,
look, we can get optimists to make fine-tuned hand motions, but the tooling to build multiple
optimists that can do that just doesn't exist. There isn't like a big humanoid robotic supply
chain globally that produces billions of, you know, humanoid robotic components.
That doesn't exist.
You got to build an optimist to build an optimist.
Is that what you're saying?
Exactly.
You got to build an optimist to build.
You got to build the thing that builds the thing.
And that's what they're working on, which is tooling.
That's a tooling problem.
Right.
And a manufacturing problem.
And Elon's good at that. So, you know, Brett Adcock at Figure is working on the same
thing. They're working on tooling, right? And they want to get these things to a point where
you can manufacture them at scale, manufacture them efficiently at scale, and eventually
insert LLM brains into the robots, eventually. And when you do that,
that's when you get this sort of collision moment
where people are like,
okay, the era of robotics is here.
And I think it is very close.
The next few years, kind of close.
I'll say three years.
So people want me to be more specific
because I always say five to 10,
but let's say three years,
I think you'll get that moment
where somebody introduces a commercial robot.
I think three years versus five to ten years actually is quite the distinction.
I think that five to ten years time frame is not something you can really invest in
at this point in time.
You can. You can invest in it.
But yeah, I mean, it depends on how early you want to be
and how much volatility you want to go through, right?
Because being early is...
What's the saying? Yeah, what's the saying? Early and wrong, you know what I mean, or whatever?
Yeah, early is no different from being wrong. Well, that just depends on your time horizon.
But yeah, sometimes, like, dude, there's stocks I've been early on and got shaken out of that proceeded to double or triple, right?
Because I was too early and you
know the price action was bad or whatever and i was like all right i'm gonna look on other
opportunities i sold them and they went on to do you know even more so yeah that's normal that's
gonna happen you know how many times how many times have you waited you know said okay i can
wait there's time and then the wind catches Somebody puts an analyst report out on it, and all of a sudden it runs.
You miss the first half of the move.
Exactly.
That happens, too, all the time.
All the time.
I have stocks on my watch list all the time, and they end up taking off.
You know, the stocks I sell all the time that end up taking off.
Like, I was talking about a couple of those, XMTR, Talent, Energy.
Like, those were great trades for me.
I made a lot of money on them, but I sold them before they made 40-50% moves higher.
And that's part of the game. It's part of the game.
And you just got to live with that. You can't own everything forever. It's just not possible.
I'd love to own 100 stocks that I've owned throughout the years and just own them forever.
I mean, no matter how much capital you have, you just can't own everything.
So you have to make those decisions along the way and live with it.
Pinterest Energy had a bombshell report, though, by the way. I know we didn't talk about that,
but it did end up coming out, beat top and bottom line, 154 versus 130. EPS, 159 versus 63 cents
expected. So big, big beat on EPS. But competed completed phase two of their how you deployment contract to
the doe 900 kilograms delivered doe exercise option 1a of phase three of their program which
will send another 110 million to centrist through june 2026 their backlog now sits at 3.6 billion
um and they're sitting at 833 million in cash. Their CEO made a great statement
on the earnings call today, which, uh, I will just quickly read here. He said, there's a strong
consensus among nuclear utilities and policymakers that an additional nuclear enricher is required
to bring new supply and new competition to the U S market, which has been long dominated by
foreign state owned enterprises. Centris is proud
to offer a publicly traded American source of enrichment. He's just reiterating the thesis
there that they are the only play on American enrichment. And the DOE now exercising phase
three, I think, is a validation of the fact that they can supply the DOE, the HALU that they need.
The fact that they made, we didn't know that they were going to make that complete 900
kilogram delivery this quarter.
The fact that they did that and announced that I think is a major milestone.
It shows that they can meet the DOE's requests.
And that's really what this three-phase contract that they're under currently for HALU provision is for. The DOE wants them to prove that they can be a reliable
nuclear enricher for the United States. And I think this quarter is a step in that direction
for them. So stock doing well here after hours, about 6% on that report. That's my largest position
by weighting. I was actually hoping it would go down a little bit so I could add to it, but it didn't.
So we'll see how that thing performs tomorrow.
Maybe I'll end up getting a dip on, on the open or something.
But, um, yeah, great, great report for Centris.
I have Genius reporting in the morning.
Um, you know, Materion, which reported last week, which I've been touching on these spaces.
That's one of my other rare earth plays.
It's the only integrated producer
of beryllium in the west i've talked about the thesis before you can search my tweets for it
if you're not familiar with materion but man that stock just will not go down you know had that 10
gap up on earnings and then just kept drifting higher and then today was another three percent
higher the thing's pushing 108 now um i'm kind of kicking myself because I'm mostly in stock on that thing.
And I was looking at the 105 calls for September last week on this thing.
And there's like no volume on them.
But like there's no volume on any of the chain, which is why I remain in the stock.
I think it's completely undiscovered.
But I was looking at them.
They're trading at like a 30% IV.
The 105 calls for September 15th were trading at like a 30% IV, trading at like under $4.
And I was like, is this a no-brainer?
And I didn't buy them.
But now the stock's like 109, basically.
You don't see that often in hot sectors, you know?
And so I think Materion just remains completely overlooked.
So I'm staying long on that one.
But they already had their earnings, so that's out of the way
Lyft, I did pick up a position in some Lyft calls
today, pretty risky position
I am fully expecting
to be able to take a hit on those
I sized it at about a 3% weighting
my thinking is if earnings are bad
and I take a 50% loss on the calls
it'll only be a 1.5% hit to the portfolio
I can live with that
so that's kind of why.
What calls are you?
I got the September and October 15th.
I am in the August 22nd 15th.
Oh, you're a gambler, Evan.
I like it.
I said I was in the Lyft.
I said you liked it yesterday.
We got some confirmation between you.
Truthfully, you and Paper both said it.
So I was like, all right, fuck it.
I was already – I bought the – I had the shares.
Oh, Paper likes lift too?
Yeah.
Well, he said the same thing you did.
Similar to you did, hey, listen, it's not like you're not going to gamble into earnings or whatever and say this is going to win.
But the setup's solid where if it did something good, they can have a nice bounce.
Remember their last report?
It was like their strongest quarter ever and the stock shot up i don't know if you remember the earlier quarter
i got it i i do a little bit but what i do remember like i'm surprised that that headline
about autonomy didn't get them to move higher i thought that yeah i think it's because their
earnings right around the corner so people are probably waiting for that i think that's probably
why the the last quarter stock talk didn't they report like uh positive eps for the first time
or something yeah yeah positive eps for the first time i think the stock went from like what 12 to
like 17 or something i remember something like that let me go back and look i was pulling it up
too yeah yeah it went from 12 to 17 yeah it's 12 30 to 1750 on that report. And then since then, you know, sort of consolidated slash broke down,
but right into the 200 day, you know?
See how it's floating around the 200 day in these last five or six candles?
I kind of like that look.
So, yeah, took some 15 calls today.
We'll see how this pan out.
I do like when it does a little like undercut of a 200 day and then like reclaims like quickly yeah yeah exactly i like that that's like
one of my looks i like and um i like action around the 200 day i like i like entering around that
tends to be good risk reward tends to you know set you up for big moves like most of my biggest
gainers this year i entered around the 200 day like centrist energy uh nebius corp you know set you up for big moves like most of my biggest gainers this year i entered around the 200 day like centrist energy uh nebius corp you know the the big the big stocks
that did a lot for me kratos you know i added to that around 200 day like i like i like adding
around the 200 day moving average it's just a nice place to add if you're a swing trader or an
investor it's a nice place to add it has very very swing trader or an investor, it's a nice place to add. It has very,
very high probability of success.
Stocks tend to go up when they come down to their 200 days.
So anyway,
I like that look on lift.
We'll see what happens.
It's again,
anytime I size a position prior to earnings,
if I don't have a cushion,
like I don't in this case,
I'm always sizing him modestly because,
you know,
worst comes to worst,
I can upsize after earnings if I really like it, but I'm not going to go into an earnings thing where it could go
down, up or down 10% and get crushed, you know? Um, so I try to size them modestly. Uh, and you
know, if I have to take, like I said, 40, 50% loss on the options, and then I'm take a 1.5%
hit on the portfolio, that's fine with me.
So that's kind of how I size that.
Genius reports tomorrow morning.
I haven't sold any.
Even those things have gone a lot higher since we first started talking about it.
I got it in the 960s.
So I was trading like 1220s today.
I just still really like the story.
I think it's misunderstood.
I don't think the market's pricing it appropriately.
I think the multiple should be much higher.
I think there's a chance they break into profitability this year.
And the monthly chart is just like, monthly chart is so pretty.
And my main technical thesis on this when we first got in back in June to Genius was the monthly chart.
It doesn't get prettier than that on the monthly chart.
I mean, you pull up Genius on the monthly and look at the past five years,
three highest ever monthly volume bars all stacked together,
all the volumes stacked on the right side of the chart,
emerging above a multi-year base, you know, coming into new price territory with range to 14, 16, 21, 25.
I just like it.
And, yeah, I think it'll trade at a higher multiple.
I think the market will recognize it as a software story.
They signed an extension with the European Football League.
They signed an extension with the Premier League.
They signed an extension with the PGA Tour. They signed an extension with the premier league. They signed an extension with the PGA tour. They signed an extension with the NFL. They have exclusive rights to all those
leagues with expiries between 2030 to 2032. NFL owns 9% of the company. I feel like that leaves
a very strong bid under it headed into earnings. If it does come down on earnings, I will be a
buyer and not a seller. This is another one of my core names. On core names,
I'm a buyer of dips, not a seller of dips. On trading names, I am a seller of breakdowns.
That's really how I play the game. If I'm just in it for a trade and it starts breaking down,
I'm out. If I'm in it as a core position because I believe in the stock more than just the chart,
then I'm a buyer on those pullbacks. And that's my MO really when it comes to portfolio management. So this is not a name
where even if the earnings are bad that I would sell, I would just buy more. So yeah, that's
genius tomorrow morning. And then into the end of the week, I have some more names reporting as
well. What do I have? Oh, I have Fubo. That is at the end of the week that's a newer position picked
that up really around the same sort of uh thesis around the disney nfl deal i think there's a
chance fubo gets tailwinds from the disney's acquisition of nfl network and uh red zone
because for those that don't remember uh disney merged hulu their hulu live tv business with
fubo's business earlier in
the year so the very start of the year fubo stock like uh 4x on it um we were actually in that trade
and now revisiting it after six months of consolidation right big move to the upside
on fubo to the sixes faded consolidated for the last six months. And now last week had a really nice 20%
move to the upside that pulled back into the 90MA. So that's where we got along right at the 90MA
374 stocks 392 now. So a little bit of a buffer on that position for us, but they report on the
eighth and we will see how those earnings go. I think if they can get to even decent earnings,
I think at a 1.3 billion market cap
while controlling 30% of the Hulu live TV offering
is pretty compelling.
So if the earnings are even decent,
I think that stock can trade higher on the 8th.
Then I have Energy Fuels, UUUU.
They report on the 7th on Thursday. Warby Parker reports on
the 7th on Thursday. Nebius, which is sort of my AI horse, that reports on the 7th as well.
That's really my multifaceted AI play. I have such a huge cost-based advantage on this one
in at 23.92. Stock's $56 today.
I don't really care what happens on the earnings.
Comes down, I'll probably add some leaps.
Goes up, great.
It's one of the core positions, so have a lot of weight in there already.
Kratos also reports, another one of my core positions, reports on the 7th as well.
I have zero reservations about Kratos.
I think that's a $100 stock in the making, like I've said many times before.
I'm also a dip buyer on that if that goes down on earnings.
I've generated a lot of buying power over the last few weeks just by selling lower conviction names.
And so I'm in a position to buy dips on core positions if they present themselves.
Magnite, that's not a core position, but I do have some 17 calls expiring in September, I believe, on this that are deep in the money.
They're like over $5 in the money now.
That reports on the 6th.
Depending on how the earnings goes, I may choose to be an exerciser of those 17 calls come September.
But we'll see.
It just depends on the earnings.
It depends on the charge structure following the earnings.
What else do I have?
That's it in terms of reporting this week.
So, yeah, a lot.
Got Magnite, Genius, Lyft, Kratos, Nebius, Warby Parker, Energy Fuels, Fubo.
Oh, and also ASTS next week, though.
But ASTS, another position where I have a really,
really deep cost-based advantage down at 28. So I'm comfortable holding that one as well.
So yes, should be a fun, busy week. Or not fun week. We'll see how the reactions come.
One of the two. One of the two. I am in a lot of stocks, though, that have doubled
in the last few months from our entries.
And so I don't I don't really have a tremendous amount of optimism about this earning season.
In fact, I was surprised to see Centris up 7% after more than doubling in the last three months.
But I'll take it. But I don't have a tremendous amount of optimism this earning season. I've said
this before. I make my money not just this year, but every year I make my money, not just this year, but every year, I make my money and capture my alpha
intra-quarter, not on the earnings season.
I capture my alpha in between earnings seasons.
That's when I open new longs.
That's when I look at thematic opportunities because there's less earnings-related volatility
and noise and less binary risk.
So I operate in those
environments. And earnings season for me is usually either a degrossing opportunity or an opportunity
to add to core positions. That's really all it is for me. It's not a place where I'm looking to make
returns. I'm not looking to capture 20, 30% gap ups. They happen sometimes. That's great. But
that's not the purpose of it for me. For me, it's just to like see, hey, which positions deserve to stay on the roster, right? So I do
actually do more cuts during earning season than I do ads based on results and based on my thesis
potentially changing about a certain company. So I expect to do the same. I mean, two months ago, I was at 24 positions in the portfolio. I'm now at like 16, 17, something like that.
I will be under 15 by Q4.
I will be.
I always am.
So I will be under 15 by Q4.
I may even be under 13 by Q4.
We'll see.
But I'm going to whittle the portfolio down.
And look, again, I have missed out on opportunities in an
effort to narrow the portfolio. I've sold stocks I shouldn't have sold. I sold XMTR last week. I was
up 40% today on earnings. I sold Talon Energy three weeks ago. That thing went up another 50%
after I sold it. I'm in strong stocks. I'm in good stocks. So a lot of them are going to go higher.
But I also, like I said, can't own everything forever. And I know that.
And so I try to center around my higher conviction stuff. So yeah. And the stuff where I have cost basis advantages because it's easier to hold that stuff through volatility. So yep. That's kind of
my 360 on the markets and on the earnings I have coming up. We'll be here tomorrow to discuss those earnings as well. So looking forward to it.
We haven't pulled the old Irish exit on us.
I think it's typical.
Yeah.
Typical Evan.
He may be listening to Lisa Sue.
AMD did pop back up a little bit,
basically back tested,
break even pushed back away. It's down two and a half,, basically backtested, break even, pushed back away.
It's down two and a half, almost 3% again here.
But yeah, a lot of earnings reports today.
I don't know if anyone knows what happened with the open.
Did you follow the open door thing, Stock Talk?
Do you have any idea what was going on there?
The earnings?
No, I didn't look at it.
No, like previous to that.
Well, they're down 24%.
They were down 30% a few moments ago. Oh, wow. No, yeah, I was following, I was following. I didn't know what the original
story though, because it was like, what, like a month ago or so it popped up, like maybe
two weeks or maybe two, three weeks ago. Yeah, it's Eric Jackson on Twitter. He's the, he's
the guy behind, or not guy behind Cypher and Iron, but he was one of the big advocates
of Cypher and Iron.
And Open was his next play.
He's like Open to 82 or whatever and got a bunch of retail traders into it.
And I'm sure a lot of them are bagged, but yeah, unfortunate.
People love to try to get rich quick and chase shitty silly stocks and
you learn your lessons.
I used to do that too
when I was a new trader.
Chase all the garbage, chase the stuff I see
on my Twitter feed.
If you're somebody
out there that's struggling and you're a new trader,
stop doing that.
Stop doing that.
If you keep getting bagged by just following random people's ideas on Twitter,
like, and you're still doing it, why are you still doing it?
You know, one of my pet peeves, Stock Talk,
when I get asked this a lot, like,
either in the comments on Spaces or, like, on my live streams or something,
I'll, hey, have you seen, and they'll throw me some stock ticker,
what are your thoughts on this?
And it's, like, something that gapped up 45%.
And I'm, like, my thought is it's something i won't ever touch like
anytime soon exactly i'd never think about it again actually i i and i know like maybe give
five months to consolidate yeah like i i i get like that catches young traders eyes like oh did
you see this is up 100 today or 50 or whatever and it's like the the quicker that
you kind of eliminate that like was like the bells and whistles or like you know the it's like a cat
chasing the laser light that's what i think of like these traders that go from like name to name
like that and and look if if that's you and you've found a way to like be profitable chasing those
scalping those whatever like great you know do your thing but i just know like for me and the majority of traders like it's literally uh it's a laser
pointer for a cat like you're you're just distracting yourself and there's you're wasting
your time in my opinion yeah like i mean you know i have friends that i trust when it comes to stocks
and you know mystic is one of them that i've brought up here before, and he's in our community too.
And occasionally I'll take stocks that he trades that I like.
But outside of him and like Yanezu and one or two other people I trust,
I do not listen to anyone at all about any stock.
I just look at my own process and find my own stocks.
Like I don't follow people into things unless they're very compelling to me on my own protocols.
Like they check my own boxes.
Like as much as I trust and love Mystic, I don't trade everything he trades.
You know, I've traded maybe one or two names that he's traded this year.
AIP was a great one, by the way.
Shout out to him.
That thing went up 40% today.
But yeah, I don't listen to people.
And I don't mean that in an arrogant way.
I don't want people to misinterpret that like, oh, you think you're smarter than everyone else? No, that's not what I mean by that. What I mean by that is that my process has led to me
consistently outperforming the market. And so I do not want to deviate from my process.
You know, when I start, like I take more losses on other people's ideas when I
do follow them than I do on my own. And that's to me, it's a sign of exactly that, which is that
you should stick to your own process. And the problem with most new traders is that you don't
have a process. That's why you get caught chasing the garbage, because you don't have a process of
picking stocks on your own. Like most of you don't have any idea how to pick a stock.
You don't even know where to start.
Right?
Like if I were to go to the average new retail trader and say, hey, what stock do you like today?
Not one that was mentioned to you or that you saw in your feed, but what stock do you like?
If you were going to buy something today, what would you buy?
They wouldn't even know where to start.
You know, they wouldn't even know what industry to start in or whether to do a top down or bottom up analysis. They wouldn't even know where to start.
And so that's the problem. Once you figure out a stock picking process, which for me personally
is catalytically and thematically driven, most of the stocks i pick and buy are either have
individual stock catalysts that are compelling or have thematic relevancy that is compelling
that's where i start and then once i figure that out then i go top down and i've gone over that
process a million times but i go through the chart i go through the short interest i go through
insider buys and sells i go through the last couple of earnings reports i go through the chart. I go through the short interest. I go through insider buys and sells.
I go through the last couple of earnings reports.
I go through all these data sets and then I build a picture and ask myself, is this a high conviction buy or is this a lower conviction buy?
Then I size it appropriately and then I buy it.
like but there's a process there there's a multi-step process that requires a lot of reading
But there's a process there.
and a lot of chart glancing and a lot of data analysis and a lot of research to get to that
point and then when you get there you're like okay i'm confident in this opportunity i might
not be right but i'm confident enough to take it with size and that's what the money's made
you don't make money by putting 500 bucks into a lotto play that goes up a thousand percent. That's where new retail
traders think the money is made. That's not where the money is made. The money is made in high
conviction buys with size that you hold. That's where real money is made. Nobody makes a fortune
scalping stocks. No one does that.
I don't know anyone that's ever done that.
So don't do it.
I mean, you can do it, but don't only do that.
Don't think that that's your key to success
or your first million dollars
or whatever your goal is
or you're seeking from the markets.
Don't think that that's the way to get there
because it's not.
The way to get there is really smart stock picking, whether that's technically or fundamentally informed, in my view, ideally both, that is informed by a process, a really
specific process that you have tested through multiple market environments that has yielded
you alpha consistently. If your process does not yield you alpha consistently, change the process. It's not a good process, period. You know, it's not me telling you that,
it's the market telling you that. And once you get the process, once you get your niche,
and you can say, okay, this is the area I like to operate in. These are my rules. These are my
conditions for opening a new position. These are my conditions for opening a new position these are my conditions for closing an existing position set that up for yourself and once you have everything becomes easier it becomes way
more chill you don't stress as much you don't panic as much you don't buy things you shouldn't
be buying and sell things you shouldn't be selling it just everything is more bliss it's like a moment
of serenity when you get to that point as a trader. So get there.
It shouldn't take you.
It's not about taking you years to do it.
It's about putting in the effort to actually build a process, which no one seems to want to do,
because they think this game is just about like buying stocks and closing your eyes and hoping they go up.
But that's not what the game's about.
If you want to be a good stock picker, at least, you know, it's a hard thing to do.
But if you want to be, that's what you have to do.
And the more you do all of that, the more general knowledge you get around sectors in the market, how things move, just all those pieces.
So that's the other big piece there.
All right.
We're at a good spot here.
I was going to look over these last earnings updates. A lot of these calls are going on. AMD back down 3.3%. We did take out the low of day on QQQ there with the AMD move down. Snapchat's down 17%. Let's be positive. ANET is up 14.5%. It's still at the highs here during its call. SMCI is down 17% as well.
A lab.
Centris energy is up 6%.
Which one?
Centris energy is up 6%.
Centris energy is up 6%.
That's all that we care about, right?
A lab up 10%.
So Danny and the audience down there, I'm winning today's battle that you didn't know we were having.
But hey, good win there. Shout out to Danny down there, I'm winning today's battle that you didn't know we were having. But hey, good win there.
Shout out to Danny down there.
Rivian was the other one I was going to check on here before we close out.
Rivian bounced a little bit.
It's down 4.4% here after that call, I guess, is over according to my list here.
All right, everyone.
Appreciate you tuning in.
This whole thing is recorded as it is every day. Of course, if you want to hear any of the great conversation we had in that first hour
with a huge panel of people, some really great minds on today, shout out to all of them. Hope
you followed them all while they were up here. You can go back, listen to that, of course,
all the way through the earnings release. And then the back half of these, there's a lot of
little nuggets thrown in here by Stock Talk almost every single day. So definitely if you missed any piece of this, you can always listen back to it. Appreciate everyone tuning in.
We'll be back tomorrow, same time, same place, Power Hour, 3 p.m. Eastern. We have IONQ reporting
tomorrow, which we found out Amazon possibly took a new stake in today. AppLovin, Airbnb,
Duolingo, DraftKings, DoorDash,
a lot of other names, Oxy reporting tomorrow.
After the close, some in the morning too.
Make sure you, if you're a Uber shareholder shop,
Disney, a lot of names reporting tomorrow as well.
So big day tomorrow, we'll see what happens.
We'll see if this 21 Stock Talk's favorite EMA,
the 21 EMA on the daily.
Perfect. Did you see that Stock Talk actually, before I close this out?
To the penny, to the penny, to the penny on spy today,
we are sitting right underneath it here in after hour,
like right on it basically here in after hours.
QQQ is actually to the penny sitting on it right here in after hours as well.
So it could be a big it could be a big day.
Either a reclaim of this, hold it maybe tomorrow,
or you lose it, maybe you get a little bit more downside.
We'll see what happens.
We'll see how it plays out.
Of course, we'll tell you all about it right here on Stocks on Spaces.
Make sure you follow this host account.
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And with that, I'm signing off.
We'll see you guys tomorrow. Thank you.
