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LIVE EARNINGS TALK | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: Aug. 7, 2025 Duration: 2:28:42Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, participants explored the implications of recent tariff announcements on the semiconductor industry, the volatility in biotech stocks like Eli Lilly, and the impressive growth of Celsius in the crypto beverage market. Anticipation builds around upcoming earnings reports from key players like TTD and Rocket Lab, while community engagement through events like traders meetups in Denver signals a vibrant trading ecosystem.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. what is up what is up how are we doing sir
what's up evan i'm great busy but great how are you yeah busy day busy busy day uh interesting
times apple holding up pretty well.
That's great to see.
Broke above that level we were talking about yesterday in After Hours.
And it's showing some still relative outperformance even as the market has pulled back.
It's funny.
We were talking a trade we took on Lyft around the earnings.
This wasn't like a real one.
Don't gamble around earnings.
Let's say gamble around Lyft earnings.
It looked horrible yesterday.
It's been quite the rollercoaster of emotions today as we're maybe coming back up a little bit we'll see still definitely taking
an L on that lift play the good old reminder which I guess I need to get once a season on why
I don't go near the earnings but that's happening Apple though good times what are you watching this
market a lot of a lot more red than
when we started out today not a red we thought we were maybe getting some tariff clarity and
we have to have anything but now yeah so uh yesterday i was really cautious um maybe i was
a little bit early either way it worked out for me just being on some of the hedge short side. I added
some more this morning at the open. And it's really interesting. The 20-day moving average
basically is holding on the S&P. We did break above the trend line, but fell right back under
it. So it's a really interesting picture. We'll hear what Stock Talk and maybe Options Mike,
some of the other chartists in here, Brian Lund, what they think about kind of the structure here, but it doesn't look great,
but it doesn't look terrible either. Like it's like, okay, what, what's coming next? I can see
very strong arguments for kind of both sides here of what's going on. But yeah, it was interesting.
The NASDAQ, we had obviously a big gap up overnight with some of that news.
Trump basically said 100% tariff on semiconductors and chips.
And then he said, but anybody making, what do they call it, a fair effort or something, Evan?
I don't remember the exact term he used.
But basically, if you were trying to invest in the u.s and move some stuff to the u.s
you got an exemption so the market kind of took that and said okay we're good they also obviously
apple got a nice pump on that after hours and into this morning and i just made a new hive day
there you go evan look at that 220 right at the gap fill in the 200 days so probably gets uh just
absolutely canned from here but either way way, it will be interesting to
see what everyone thinks today with where we're at. We did sell off most of this news pot, but
the NASDAQ is basically break even. We're down, the Qs are down about 40 cents right now, less
than 0.1%. The S&P a little bit rougher. I noticed banks were getting really hit hard this morning.
The S&P is down 0.36.
IWM and the Dow, the Dow's the other one that really took it on the chin today, down 0.68%. And the VIX up 3.5%.
There was a midday dip on crypto that got bought right back up.
So it's hanging in pretty decently, actually, on Bitcoin after a little scare there.
Was there anything, Evan, that stuck out to you just looking looking around, other than obviously Apple having a 3% day today.
Eli Lilly.
Eli Lilly was definitely an interesting one,
getting absolutely schlacked off of some data around the pill for their GLP-1,
the weight loss drug being a little bit under expectations,
not as good as Novodornis.
That one was quite the move.
It was down like 15%, 20% when I was looking a little bit earlier.
That was one of the names that was standing out for me for sure.
A lot of interesting moves around this earnings from last night.
A couple of reversals here and there.
So, yeah, some weird movement there.
And then one thing I was looking, I didn't check too much.
We've talked some crap on Celsius, and here we are at 50.
Goddamn, I guess the Fintit favorite Celsius, C-E-L-H,
is making its return back.
But Eli Lilly was the one.
What is Celsius up?
That's early in front of me.
Oh, year to date.
Okay.
My guess is we came in the year around...
Ooh.
My guess is we came in the year around... Okay, I'll get it. Let's say we came in the year around
Okay, I'll get it
Let's say we came in the year around 40 or 45
So 20% to 10%
Year to date
Celsius is up 88%
Up 137%
Off the lows
However, it's still 50%
From all time high
Nice
Small wins However, it's still 50% from all-time high. Nice.
Small wins. Small wins.
Yeah, a lot going on.
A lot going on.
We got a couple earnings up after the close.
TTD is one that I'm watching out for.
Rocket Lab is another one that's kind of interesting and a few others.
So, yeah, the craziness of this season does not stop.
Does not stop.
Yep, definitely.
There was a whole lot of earnings yesterday afternoon, a lot more this morning, and some more to come, actually.
So, interested to see what our panel is looking at in the markets and the earnings, stories that are maybe sticking out to them, anything and everything would love to hear about it. Um, Brian Laund, I think was one of the first
ones I saw up here today. So let's, let's go to Brian first today, Brian, what's going on.
What's on your mind. What's sticking out to you? Anything, uh, just like, Hey, we got to talk
about this first. Yeah. What's on my mind is, uh, I'm going on vacation next week. So looking forward to that. By the way, we're doing a traders meetup in Denver. Next week, it's open to anybody. So if anyone's on this spaces wants to show up there, I just hit my timeline on Twitter. I think I've got a meetup invite there. Open to everybody.
Open to everybody. So, you know, look, I talked earlier in the week when I was on with JC about
that reversal candle that we're now not supposed to call a bearish reversal candle that we had
last week. And I thought just a lot of people were too complacent about it. And then we followed
through on Friday and we've kind of been grinding back up. But I think that the final hour today is going to be really important
because from the jump today, everything just started selling off. I mean, the indexes,
except for the NASDAQ. NASDAQ held in there for a while, but then it started to join in.
And so we have not yet closed back. I mean, I guess yesterday we technically closed above
Thursday's low, but I don't really consider that a confirmation until we can hold it for a day or so.
So we're still below that level.
And as long as we're below that level, I think the market's at short-term risk.
The Dow and the IWM, which looked yesterday pretty good, now are looking pretty ugly, depending on how today's bar finishes. So it's a weird market because it seems like
every other day you turn around and there's some stock that's up 10, 15, 20% on earnings.
But I just see some stalling here at the highs. And so short term, I think people should be
cautious. Like I said, I'm getting ready to go on vacation next week. So I've really come into
each day pretty much flat and then just been doing some day trading. So yeah, that's kind of
where I'm at right now. And by the way, I'm not saying the market's going to crash. I'm just
saying we might just be in a little malaise period for August. There traditionally is some
part of the summer that the market just goes sideways or drifts lower. It doesn't always have
to happen, but this could be when it happens.
So I would caution people to be a little bit cautious.
Brian, do you ever look at the equal weight RRSP?
You know, some of my subscribers in our Discord will throw that up every now and then.
Sometimes I'll look at if JC or Steve throw that up every now and then um sometimes i'll look at if jc or steve
throw it up uh i don't really i don't i try to make it really simple because i'm just looking
for pure technical moves in individual names and i'll use the indexes as more of a um i guess like
a confirmation like my stock watch list that I have, they're an indicator to me
in of themselves. As stocks come on and off, I can kind of tell how the flow is going in the market.
It's just something you kind of learned after you've been doing this for 40 years. And so I'll
use the indexes to kind of confirm or, you know, or work against my thesis, but I don't want to slice them up too much.
I'm pretty old school. I just stay with Q, IWM, the Dow, and the S&P 500.
So I guess the long-winded answer is not really.
I'm just curious on that. I was taking a look look at it and it does not look too healthy and you know
sometimes people look at some of the underneath sides of the market so i'm curious if that was
something that you used in your kind of broad picture painting here of what's going on in the
market but yeah i see the same things like i don't know that i'm convinced either way right now but
the thing that makes the most sense would be kind of a sideways cool off period or drift down a little bit lower.
I think that probably makes the most sense at this point, right?
We've got through pretty much all the big earnings other than NVIDIA.
Here we are hanging out.
Seems to be an acceptable price.
People start locking in some profits as things get slow.
Yeah, I think there's technicals you can look at, there's fundamentals
you can look at, and everyone should, you know, for whatever works for them. But there's also like,
kind of anecdotal stuff that you factor in a little bit. And one of the things is,
it's just been so easy. I mean, this market, like, I don't want to make anyone feel bad.
And I'm not trying to make anyone feel bad. But if you haven't just been coining money, you know, since we hit the bottom in April, I don't know. You got to check
out your methodologies or maybe revise them because it has been so easy. You can throw a dart and hit
something. The market's usually not that easy, right? The market doesn't make it that easy for
us. So when it is that easy and, you know, when I'm sitting at the checkout line at the supermarket and people are talking about what they're trading,
I just get a little bit. So, um, I, I don't know. I just, my spidey senses are just saying,
just be a little bit careful right now. It does. It feels a lot like the late nineties,
honestly, like I'm, I'm sure not a lot of people were around back then to trade it.
Honestly, like I'm sure not a lot of people were around back then to trade it.
And 97 to 2000 was insane.
And I never thought we would get to those sort of levels again in the market.
Right. That's sort of just crazily speculative moves.
But we're seeing it and they can go on for a long time, but they can also really hurt people that are not focused on a risk first methodology.
hurt people that are not focused on a risk first methodology. And so, you know, I'm always, I'll
be glad to miss out on some moves to protect myself on the downside. Because over time, you know,
I think being consistent is the best thing you can do in the market. And you should look at your
involvement in the market, not just on like today, tomorrow, next week, next year, it should be a
long term thing that you're going to do for years. And if you do it consistently over time, you'll do good. If you're chasing the hot things
here and there, you may catch a few, but you could also get really hurt.
Yeah, I hear you, Brian. I love that. And definitely feel free to jump back in the
conversation. Also, if you ever do a trader meetup in central Mexico,
definitely let me know.
Cause I'm there.
100%.
Let's keep going.
We're in central Mexico.
Tell us where I live in a car,
which is a mouthful.
It's about two hours from Mexico city,
colonial city,
big city here,
right in the dead.
If you threw a dart at the dead center of Mexico,
that's where I'm at.
All right.
I'm putting a mental note.
If we ever have one down there,
you're the first one I hit.
Let me know. I'll, I'll, uh, I'll take you to all the good spots.
Get you some really good tacos for sure.
You will eat well regardless of any other experience that you have. All right.
Uh, appreciate you, Brian. Like I said, jump back in.
If you hear anything else you want to comment on for sure. Um, Brett,
I want to go over to you next and, uh,
see if you had any thoughts around kind of this conversation so far that I was having there with Brian just kind of the overall market structure
piece of things and then of course anything else that stuck out to you if you're any of these
earnings you've been watching or anything else you've been doing in the markets yeah you know
I kind of I like Brian's sort of view like overall view of the markets and where we're at.
It's like you said, it's not in a condescending type of way, but these last few months, it's been pretty much straight up.
You look at the Qs, they rallied more than 40% off the April low, the SPY up more than
30% off the April low.
Obviously, those first, you could even probably
call it six weeks coming out of that low, there was, I think, reason to have sort of doubts about
the rally and whether, you know, we would start to roll back over. But, you know, for those that
kind of dip their toes in that span, it's been pretty easy going to the upside. And, you know,
you look at some of these charts like
an intermediate term trend, like the 21 day, you know, we've like tested it like one or two times
in a couple of months. I mean, that's the type of move that we have seen. And, you know, for me,
it's, you know, I try to kind of keep my approach rather simple too. And, you know, we, we had this high, but in
both indices, we, we hit a high in December and then again in February, and then, you know,
we had a very clean breakout over it in June. And then since then, it's just pretty much been,
you know, a continuation higher, obviously last Thursday, some, we had some sort of, we had,
you know, a couple of various macro events that sort of shook things up. We had a couple of various macro events that shook things up.
We had the hot inflation report on Thursday after we gapped to new highs on the open on the back of Microsoft and meta earnings.
And then we faded.
And then Friday, we had a tough day with the jobs report.
And this week's been, you know, it's either been a really good day or kind of a disheartening day.
So I think we're starting to see a little bit of that volatility come back. And at the same time, we're in summer trading, you know, where we can kind of have the, you know, small rug pulls and low volume days. So I think just trying to be kind of
cognizant of that, you know, it's like, it's been a good couple of months. I'm one of the,
I'm a type of person, type of investor where, you know, you kind of make your money when it's easiest, when it's most available.
When you're really trying to get all the meat off the boat or a bulk of the meat,
and they don't want to sit there and pick over little tiny scraps. We had that big run and
we're holding up over that December, February high. So in in the queues it's 540 and then um it's about 610
in the spies so you know for me as long as we're above those levels to get back down it's like i
think it's like a five to six percent dip um depending on which indices you're looking at
to me that's that sets up reasonably well if we're above that level i i things are pretty
constructive to me if we start to go below that level,
then I'll start to reassess and reconsider things. But as long as we're above the breakout level,
I'm not trying to do too much right now. I'm just waiting for some of the bigger trends to reappear and letting some digestion take place. Going through earnings, we have bad companies or bad reports are getting punished.
Good ones are not being rewarded as much as they typically are,
if we look back on a quarter-by-quarter basis.
But I think overall the numbers are better than expected.
Admittedly, a low bar, right?
We had a very low bar coming into this earnings season. We're clearing it pretty well so far. I think we'll be kind of an eye opener when
we get to retailers later this month and into September because they really have their finger
on the pulse of the consumer. But if you listen to Amazon, listen to the banks, the credit card
companies, they're all very, very constructive on the consumer. So in my head, as long as the consumer is okay, and it's very simple, very like simplified
top view level.
But if the consumer is okay, I think, you know, the market can be okay.
So that's sort of where I'm looking at things now.
I'm just kind of going to wait and see.
One of the Fed speakers this morning, I can't remember if it was Bost, said they were a little concerned about, yeah, Fed's Bostic, the U.S. consumer is a big question mark right now.
Do you read more into the Fed commentary or do you say, hey, I just want to hear what the actual companies are saying?
Yeah, I mean, to be honest, there's so many Fed speakers in a given week or a given month.
I don't put too much into
what they say. I do go more with corporate commentary. It's just easier and cleaner for
me and the numbers are there. It's hard to fudge the numbers in that regard. But
I think it's not as if things are perfect. The corporate calls are pretty upbeat and pretty
optimistic. They are acknowledging that there are downside risks and there still is uncertainty.
The market has a tendency to move a lot more quickly than the economy does. And so I think
from that perspective, a lot of investors have sort of put a lot of these concerns on the back
burner because stocks have done so well.
It's not the same in the real economy. If you're in the C-suite managing a company, or even if you own a small or medium-sized business, you know, you don't just shove those risks, you know,
to the back burner so quickly. You're really trying to navigate that in a little bit more
conservative way. So, you know, we do see some of that in the calls. And then when you look
at something like, you know, the jobs report, like the monthly jobs report was pretty startling,
not necessarily the most recent one wasn't exactly inspiring, but it's really the revisions
of the prior two months. Pretty awful. I think it was like 33,000 combined jobs were created in
those two in that two month stretch. So that, to me, is a little bit bigger
of a concern. Two-thirds of the US economy is driven by the consumer. So they're not spending
very much if they start losing their jobs. So that, to me, would be sort of the big thing to watch
on the macro side. You mentioned uncertainty there. we're seeing some very interesting earnings reactions,
both sides. Do you think there's just enough uncertainty that people really are just caught
off sides on a lot of these? I mean, say some companies are going up 30%, 20% on earnings,
and others going down 20%, 30% on earnings. Are you finding any correlation there? Or do you think
that people are just having a hard time modeling stuff out right now?
Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, in some cases, like two,
on that question, like two, two companies really sort of jump out to me.
The first one being Google. So that was a few weeks ago they reported by most
measures, great quarter, solid beats on the headline numbers.
And then on the core parts of the business that, that, great quarter, solid beats on the headline numbers. And then on the core parts
of the business that really matter for Alphabet specifically. And admittedly, the stock had
rallied like 10 out of 11 days going into that print, but on the year was basically flat. I think
it was up like two or 3% for the year. It was the lowest valuation of the MAG7. So in my mind, going into that print,
I thought, if this is a good print, it's got the runway to get back to its record highs,
based on that criteria. Shares gapped higher and then faded. The stock didn't fall apart,
and it's still holding up okay, but they sold that good report down. And I think that is sort of a really good
breakdown for the entire market. We've gone so far in the last three or four months that
there's almost like so much good news can be baked into a stock in such a short period of time that
when these firms are beating, there is a little bit, maybe it's reassuring, but it's less of that
positive surprise. Whereas where they're missing or where the news is bad, you know,
most stocks have rallied so significantly that I think they've ever seen the downside reactions
really being punished. And to be honest, punishing stocks on bad news, that's good health,
that's healthy price action. And I guess the other stock I mentioned that sort of stands out
is like Duolingo had a really big, you know, nice, big open rally this morning.
And I'm not really that intimately familiar with its inner business.
But, you know, you look at that stock and I think it fell nine or 10 weeks consecutively coming to the print yesterday.
So, again, it's just sort of that surprise news, I think can kind of take
investors off guard depending on, you know, how the how the stock or how the index.
Have you seen what it's done since the open? You see how much it's given back?
Yeah, big fade, big fade for sure. But coming into the print, I mean,
monumental decline going into it. I think I think it was 10 weeks in a row, but it might have been nine.
Options Mike, Brett hit on some really good points there, and Brian as well at the beginning of the conversation.
Any thoughts that you have?
I saw your hand go up as well, so I figured you wanted to comment on something there.
Of course, anything else you've got?
I'm sorry.
I must have.
I had reinstalled the app today, and I'm trying to get everything working fine again.
I actually don't think earnings have been that great this earnings period. I don't think they've
been bad, but they have not been great. I think overall they've been okay to slightly not good.
And the market I think is showing it. We did hit the new all time. We're drifting here.
I'm looking at today. We just put in a lower high right so if you take the high
from a week ago and you came up today we faded it and these these gap ups have
been just miserable to trade when we've gotten these big cap ups lately they've
been absolutely the worst they've been very difficult you know selling the
strength and see and this this market's gotten very narrow and that's the one
thing that continues to bother me it's just you cannot let go of the same names. It's just like, okay, it's Palantir, it's NVIDIA, it's AMD,
it's HUD. It's just these same names over and over again. They just have go. They can't let
them go, and they're not really trying to broaden out. That is a market that is ultimately doomed
to come in when you say that. It doesn't mean we're going to get a correction.
I see people calling for a correction.
But I do think that we're into a tough period for the next couple of weeks to month or so until we get through mid-September when everybody's back from all their vacations.
I'm going to ask you a question on that broadening.
Because we've seen Apple join in this market.
Google started to catch back up yeah the
semiconductors the palanteers are going blackrock shopify cloudflare celsius
networks we have bny melon uh dominion but they're not hitting all-time highs right you're
picking names that have just joined this from those are all 52 guys but google can't is not google can't even get above
that earnings gap from six months ago apple and google were not 50 to be guys the rest were right
okay but it's still they're not they're not leading they're you know they went up like shop
just reported yesterday right so that's a new new addition to everything that had a good report
i just again if you look at the different sectors it's these same names every day that are really
flying i mean it's not they're not broadening out.
There are some additional names coming in, but it's just these big names that have been really holding up the indexes and they keep pushing.
And that goes back to from what Evan was saying there, what I was bringing up earlier, the equal weight.
I don't know if you look at that option, but that that RSP is it doesn't look good.
It topped back on late July and it's not even gotten close to pushing back up
there yeah so i mean i think there's problem now that said there are things to do you know um i
came in long amazon and i'm out of it now after a nice push i'm still long my stock but the options
on it i traded hood a couple times still long a few calls to see if it gets added to the s p 500
tomorrow i'm not sure on that one i caught a a nice trade on fly with some stock on that one.
You know, Palantir put a new all-time high. NVIDIA put a new all-time high. Avgo put an
all-time high. Apple, I traded after hours last night from the press conference, Evan,
but I wasn't touching it today because it would just run too much by the time it opened pre-market,
right? I know it just put a high of the day in, but it's really not gone all that far here today
and chopping around. You know, the companies that had some of the best earnings microsoft and meta
they're in the doghouse right now there's just some weirdness going around this market and i
think i echo with brian and um sorry i forgot who else was just on brad i think said it's time to be
careful you know i'm not adding to longs i said that all week long i'm not buying new longs here
i don't really believe that this rally is real you know today when we were up that much on
the open i kind of just said oh i'm not chasing anything and i'm not touching anything for at
least five minutes and just to see if this holds and you know here we are on the spy we're back on
the eight day um a whole five minutes mike come on how could how could you not do that honestly i
that rule saves me a lot from chasing some of that out of the gate.
I'm just joking. It seems like people can't wait 30 seconds these days without doing something.
And sometimes it's tough. Hood took off like a bat out of hell in the opening minutes, right?
And you just want to sit there and grab a thousand shares of it and see if you can get it to run.
I'm like, nope, I'm going to wait until it takes out that opening five-minute candle.
And if you have rules, they help you, right, on times like today, especially in trading.
If you don't have rules and you're just following things, this is the type of market that will tear you in half.
I can't tell you how many times today I've watched something pop for a minute, look good,
and then the next candle was right back down and completely engulfed the previous candle.
That's kind of wicked action.
The worst thing is when you have rules that have kept you in the game for 10, 20, 30,
40 years, and you see people that have no rules that are temporarily killing it, right?
And you know, and you want to say to them, okay, enjoy it now, because, you know, like
the same account that goes from 5,000 to 500,000 goes to zero or more with leverage, it's tough.
This is that emotional part of the game. That's why I said earlier, you got to think of the
markets in terms of years and decades. If you're in here just to get rich, if someone's here just
to get rich, like they're at a casino, all right, take swing for the fences, but just understand you can get wiped out. If you're here to build equity, to build wealth over time, and by the way,
we do this for a purpose. We build this wealth not just to get a Lambo. We do it to build security
for our families, for financial freedom, to be able to support the causes and people we care
about in our communities. If you're here to do do that you got to have rules and you got to have risk management and it sucks because
sometimes something rips and you know some idiot guy's 10 000 shares is killing it but i will tell
you yesterday morning shop when it took off like a bat out of hell on i was watching it i had a
thousand shares queued up on it pre-market and i couldn't get the report i couldn't find it anywhere
and i just i said i'm not chasing it because the mo of this market is they pop and
then they've been dropping them and you know the next couple minutes down um and it just kept going
and i didn't i didn't partake in it but that was hard right you know you just sat there staring at
it going this thing's up 20 bucks i could be making a fortune and and i couldn't understand
the report i could some of these companies it's very hard to get
the financials on i don't know why it just seems to they just seem to hide it in the reports
you know i pinned it up in the nest above like listen i don't i don't disagree with the fact
that uh bull markets are great because even i someone who's not a trader i don't claim to sell
my my individual stock picks on the news guy for a reason even i look look good at
times i sold my a lab too early i sold my celsius too early like it's it's an easy market right now
but i think that one thing i do want to say though is it feels like we've been having this
conversation for this specific one for like two three weeks in this kind of sideways area we
started to get to this exhaustion one but even before that there was some like this is a kind of a hated rally um and it's
continued and i i agree that there's a lot of these trading styles that are working right now
that will not work but the question is is this going to be uh another three months of this before
we pull back is this going to be another year of this you know i don't know and well i mean we just
pulled back i don't we maybe pulled back a
tiny bit at points friday was the first day where you could be like yeah that was an ugly day but
that was a three percent pullback right that is strong it's been a strong market but evan here's
here's the thing you got to think about you're you're telling this on this spaces here and i
guarantee you right now there's a bunch of people that were on these spaces before the tariff war
that are not on these spaces anymore the tariff war that are not
on these spaces anymore. You know why? Because they got blown out because they had no rules,
right? So we had a strong market, a market where we just kept saying, yeah, it's so strong. And
then we had the tariff kerfuffle, whatever you call it. And people got wiped out that didn't
have rules, right? So we just went through a period like that. I'm not saying it's going to
happen again, but I'm saying these things happen. Like people get wiped out every time there is a massive pullback,
whether it's COVID, whether it's a financial crisis. And I'm just saying, if you're in this
game to make money and do it over the long haul, and I know you have a different approach, you're
more of an investor, people just have to have risk management rules in place or eventually,
you know, it works every time until the last time when it doesn't work. You know, one thing I will say, first of all, part of this is why I
kind of believe being the, the investing game, the longer term word is more of the way to go.
Maybe even some more ETFs than, than, than people, um, like to talk on here, but yeah,
Mike, you can go and I'll come in after. Yeah. So, I mean, I've been doing these with you for how long now?
I've been a year and a half.
And you know I'm generally a pretty bullish guy.
And I'm definitely not bearish.
I love you, buddy.
I don't know if I'd say that.
Yeah.
Oh, I'm generally pretty bullish on the markets overall.
I mean, I'm not bearish here.
I'm just – I think it's a tough time here, and I think we're in for a slumber and a slow maybe just a drift
lower you know we did a three percent pullback last week you know we do typically do you know
three to five three to five percent pullbacks right and get a couple corrections in there there's
nothing unusual going on here yet there's nothing bad going on here but you know again you look
around out there you know when you have just a couple big names that are really seem to be the
focal point of this market that's a warning. It usually means that there's problems underneath the hood.
And Evan, I'll say one last thing about investing versus trading, because when I get on these
spaces, I'm just talking with my trader book, right? Because that's my public persona, I trade,
right? But I've always said, and I always believe that trading's not for
95% of people. And before you ever put a dollar of risk capital in speculative trading, you should
have your retirement accounts maxed. You should have your IRAs, your 401ks, your 529bs, your
insurance. You should be dollar cost averaging. You should be in indexes. And if you have extra
money after that that you don't mind losing, yeah, take a
shot at trading, right? Everyone wants to be a movie star. Everyone wants to be a rock star.
Everyone wants to be an astronaut, a brain surgeon. All those things are highly unlikely
that you'll ever get success in it, just like trading, right? But you still want to take a
shot. So it's important that people know that. I'm talking from my trader book. I'm sure Mike's
talking from his trader book, but I sure Mike's talking from his trader book.
But I got 40 years' worth of financial foundation that's built upon investing just like you do, Evan.
So it's important.
And I will share that my investing account now is probably getting close to 70% cash
as I've been trimming heavily in the last couple weeks into my position.
Still holding stuff, but I've lightened up because I'm looking –
I'm hopeful
we're going to get a bigger dip than we had the other day. And then it'd be great to add back
into it. I'm not looking for a sell-off like we had back in April. If we can get down to that 50
day on the SPY, that would be nice. Even 607 areas, the 5% pullback, that would be nice. And
I know that seasonality here says that this is a weak time of the year for the market for the next
30 days, give or take. I think this kind of goes back to that
stock talk thing is it really a long-term investment if you're trading
around your portfolio when you kind of feel it's overvalued or not or is it
more just swing trading well you're buying stock I bought into the April
lows right I got up 20 plus percent on almost everything I bought some higher
and I've trimmed into it but still holding it and looking to add back on dips.
How is that?
You know, that's investing.
You're just sitting in some active investing tree.
Like it all kind of blurs somewhere, right?
Yeah.
I mean, if you, I guess if you just want to sit and hold, that's fine.
But when you manage money, like we do our own money and we sit here, why not sit there
and just take advantage of that and actively manage it? And it's also easy to say when you haven't sat through the financial crisis,
right? Like the bear markets that we've seen for most people on these calls have been super quick.
They go, oh yeah, bear market. It's over in like, you know, a month and a half, two months. Like
when you're sitting in a relentless down market, like we had in the financial crisis or God forbid
when the, when the internet
bubble burst for like, yeah, I don't, I don't want to be sitting there just, uh, passively
managing my money. People can, and that's great. And if you're 20 years old or 30 years old,
great. But we did that part of our career, right? Like I'm at the part of the career where I'm,
I'm transitioning out to like, I'm going to retire in a few years. So, you know,
it's all about where you're at in your journey and all about your risk tolerance. And then just
got to figure out which puzzle pieces work best for you.
Yeah. I mean, would you say that Buffett is a trader or an investor?
He's an investor, but he's, he's also an investor that's got an infinite time frame and massive amounts of cash.
And if anyone thinks that they can invest like Buffett, go for it, right?
Sorry.
Sorry, sorry.
All I was going to say is when you're kind of buying and selling within the entry year, that's clearly not long-term investment.
There's something with it.
But let's go to Mish. I also saw Brett's hand go up and we can continue this conversation. within the entry year, that's clearly not long-term investment. There's something with it,
but let's go to Mish. I also saw Brett's hand go up and we can continue this conversation.
I think it is a good one. Hello, everybody. Hey, Mish.
So, yeah, well, first of all, I'm kind of like you all, Brett and Brian, I'm an active investor.
And I lived through, I was a commodities trader on the floor in New York for 14 years. And I saw a lot of guys when it was really super easy to make money, make a ton of
money. And then almost like that first heroin fix I've heard about the rest of the time you try to
chase that first fix. It's the same thing often with trading is if you have a first great experience,
like having to catch a bull market in commodities, you spend the rest of your career, if you
have a career after that, chasing that same fix.
And so that's kind of a different way to state what really you guys were talking about,
which is, you know, us older timers here, I don't want to call us old, but older timers
here know that things cycle.
So I just wanted to say that. And by the way, I also want to say, Brian, but older timers here know that things cycle. So I just wanted to say that.
And by the way, I also want to say, Brian, I'm going on vacation tomorrow. So this is the last
gig, so to speak, that I plan to have for a while. So I want to make it a good one.
Thank you. I went also hog while long in April. I'm pretty much out of everything. We've got a
couple of positions that we've put on since. I'm going away with only two positions. I'm pretty much out of everything. We've got a couple of positions that we've put on
since. I'm going away with only two positions. I'm already in the money. So I've got stops in
them, trailing stops, and that would be gold and long bonds, TLTs. And the reason why is,
Evan, you asked about RSP before. It's definitely underperforming. And it's a really good barometer,
by the way. It's
not one that I use too often, but Jeff does. And you know, I've talked about those calendar ranges
before that July and January reset. What's so interesting is that IWM never really cleared it.
XRT tried to, that's retail today, but failed. Transportation, if it weren't for Uber, would be much lower right now. Regional banks are
really low. So I'm looking at all these under the hood inside the modern family, and they're all
looking a little bit weak right here. And RSP, if it breaks down under 180, I think is another one
that is going to send a caution. And that's why I'm looking at bonds, and I'm in bonds, and I'm
looking at gold more than silver right now. And I think I mentioned that last week. So that turned out to be a good tip because right now, as I'm even speaking to you, it back, I'm going to give myself a couple of weeks
because I need the break, quite honestly. And I think everybody should take a break once in a
while, clean out their space, don't have any trades on, or at least have tops they don't have to look
at and walk away because it's a good reset. But anyway, what I wanted to say was we've talked a lot about, I've heard a lot, myself included, about stagflation, right?
And it hasn't really been here yet.
But there's a couple of things to be looking for right now.
Outside of the fact that we've seen, obviously, silver and gold, although silver is a little bit underperforming, we've had a huge rally in a lot of these industrial metals. And a lot of this has to do, of course, with the
whole AI data center space, which requires a certain level of raw materials. And energy has
been in general, the outside of the copper and aluminum and steel has been so undervalued right
now. So I've been certainly watching the energy space. I mean, if you look at Sunrun today,
nobody mentioned Sunrun, that little sucker is up 32%. Right now, it's a cheap stock. I mean,
it's a $12 stock. But still, with all of the negative press on solar, the lack of incentives
and tax credits and so on and so forth, how much the administration
hates it, it's actually doing really extraordinary well. And that's because we need to have that
level, which of course includes uranium. So outside of that, I've been watching natural gas
and coal and oil. And I have for the fund a position in XLE, but it's not, you know, I probably will get out of that.
My point is that even you take a little beat up stock like Enphase, all energy hands on deck is something I'll be watching for when I come back to see where that's at.
And all the infrastructure to make AI data centers happen, because the bottom line is this.
is this. If we're going to actually succeed in bringing all this capital into the United States
to build these areas, they require, first of all, a huge amount of land and space. So you might want
to look at some REITs. They obviously have tremendous needs in other types of infrastructure
from the hardware and the networking. I mean, you saw that incredible report on Nistera Labs,
A-Lab, that you were just talking about,
Brett, having not getting filled with those shares,
the power of the cooling infrastructure.
Those stocks, except for a couple of them,
aren't doing that well.
So either one or two things are going to happen.
Either we're going to have the greatest opportunity
and everything supports the AI and data centers,
including energy,
or all of this has been more of a pipe dream than reality.
And it doesn't succeed, in which case those things go down, all those big stocks go down,
and we're possibly heading into a recession. I don't know which way, but I know that I'm going
to get a lot of clues from watching the next few weeks. So to kind of wrap that up, right now,
I'm more in safety mode. I've definitely got themes to watch, including my vanity trade.
Yeah, biking therapeutics went crazy today after Eli Lilly was disappointing.
Novo Nordisk like its bottom.
You know, you've got other stocks there that I'm still watching.
I'm out of them now.
AI biotech is still something I'm looking at.
Cannabis, right?
Cannabis.
So far, since I've been talking to you, I was going to buy MSOS again
at 340. It's now trading 348. I think that could be a thing. And finally, of course, for me would
be Ethereum and Chainlink, two areas I'm watching very carefully right now. I missed sort of an
overnight entry, but I think Ethereum looks like it's ready and Chainlink looks like it's not far behind over 18.25, which it might be right now.
I haven't looked.
And even watch the soft in the ag commodities, going back to that stagflation.
If we can't pull off the dream, then we're going to have a situation where we could have a real upset in the market.
And we're seeing now some of those softs and ags move up.
DBA is looking kind of interesting here, sitting right under the 50.
I won't be trading any of this, like I said, in the next couple of weeks, but this is what
I'm going to be coming back to.
And just to add to what the guys have said about active investing, from 1968 to 1980,
the Dow was flat. It did nothing for 15 years. Now, everything is accelerated in
time, of course, but that doesn't mean we can't go back to a period of time where, again, while
we're trying to transition to a back to American economy, whether it happens quickly or it doesn't
happen at all, or it happens over time. I would not be surprised to see
something like that. So I do fear for kids who have found this to be so easy because they just
like follow whatever the stream is buying and then they buy it and they make money for something like
that to stall because I've seen it. I've seen it in the past and I know it's possible to happen again.
to pass and I know it's possible to happen again. So that's kind of my thing right there.
So that's kind of my thing right there.
Mitch, can I ask you about your thoughts on gold? There was a headline just a few
moments ago that a person familiar with the situation, we'll call it that type of source,
the White House prepares for Trump to nominate USCEA Chair Miran, Dr. Stephen Miran, to the empty Fed seat right now.
Gold just got a big pump on this.
Oh, not Waller.
I thought it was Waller this morning.
So I guess, did you hear about Waller?
Or this has been changed?
Yes.
Yes.
This is a different story.
I heard that one as well.
But this is the recent.
So this is for that empty chair. Was it Kugler that stepped down last week's tomorrow?
Right, right, right. Okay. So, yes. Well, obviously, if he's being nominated in what we know is a policy that wants lower rates –
Quick update. Trump just posted a true social that he's nominating.
I see it.
It is confirmed now.
Yeah, I see that.
I'm actually going to repost it while I'm talking to you.
Well, even before that, I started to get bullish in gold.
Once it cleared over $33.50, now that it's over $34.50, it looks pretty amazing.
I don't see it trading at $34.64.
What does this mean?
It means that, first of all, they're looking at an upset
to the whole Federal Reserve, which could be bearish for the markets, but very bullish for gold.
And secondly, if there are going to try to do any kind of monetary easing at this point,
and even though it's sort of been happening under the hood, and the yields really start to fall,
not just because they're falling naturally from their highs, but actually fall, fall.
And by the way, TLTs are actually going down with this because of the I'm not even sure why.
Gold, I think gold can go to thirty eight hundred four thousand.
I've never felt anything differently.
Every time I see the bearish calls come out in gold, I kind of scratch my head.
Not sure what they're looking at.
Not sure what they're looking at.
But if you take a look at a weekly chart, especially in gold futures and in GLD,
there is nothing negative about this chart at all.
If people were looking at this chart and it was Palantir,
they would say this thing was going to the moon.
But because it's gold, everybody likes to get negative.
So I wouldn't get too negative.
But yeah, what's the saying is disruption of the system.
Here we come.
How far it goes remains to be seen.
Yeah, I saw that headline.
We are getting like 15 minutes until the close.
We do have a couple of those earnings as well.
By the way, a couple of the times to expect some of the numbers.
Trade desk should be right around the close.
Rocket Lab, 415, Square, Block, XYZ, whatever it is, 415. SMR, 415. So actually, a lot more later
there. Pinterest is at 406. So yeah, the 405, 415s are the normal time you should expect a lot of
the numbers were about 14 minutes from the close. We will be covering a lot of those earnings on here.
But I'm overdue.
I'm hearing that Trump just signed that act that was talked about this morning about allowing crypto into 401ks.
So throw that out there.
Mish, was there anything else that you wanted to hit on before I continue around to the rest of the panel?
Well, we just got this little post here from Jay, who I'm assuming is listening to us, warning us old folks, I would imagine, that we're going to be locked out of the
next rally and that, you know, we're chasing trends that we're literally doing the same. I'm not
really sure what he's trying to say, but I would like to say that I don't ever worry about getting
locked out of the next leg of a rally. That's called FOMO. I always have
something going on. It's just a matter of where to look. I'm saying that if this thing gets pulled
out, like if we actually can succeed and the stagflation is the thing, where's the stagflation
going to look like? It's not so much in some of the other stocks that have been doing well,
and maybe AI and defense stocks continue to do well. I'm saying the next rally that you
should keep your eye on would be the commodities rally. Gold is just the start of it. All that
other stuff I talked about might be getting going too. And that could domino into other commodities.
And so, you know, that's where you have to watch the dollar and you have to watch the rates and
this DBA, which is a good conglomerate of softs and ags.
So I never worry about that, honey. I've been doing this for a very, very long time.
And that's what a lifetime trader does, is sit back, wait for dips, get in, have quick stops if things are turning over,
and only chase if there's a defined risk
and with that by the way thank you very much i'm going to say sayonara i'll see you guys i'll be
back the last week in august you going somewhere fun or you you don't have to say if you don't
want to but i hope it's a good time we appreciate you as always. Well, yeah. Well, I'm taking, I am going up to Colorado to kind of do like one with nature.
We're going up, actually, an old silver community called Creed, Colorado, but it's right on the Rio Grande.
So there's like.
No way.
That's where I'm going.
I'm going to Colorado next week.
Oh, yeah.
Where are you going?
I'm going to, well, going to Denver.
Going to go fly fishing with Brian
Shannon. And then we're doing a traders meetup in Denver on Monday, if you're around and then
going to Breckenridge and Bale. Oh, how cool. Well, I'm going to be further South because
Cree, Colorado is about an hour and a half from Pagosa Springs. So I'm going to be more on the
Southern part of Colorado, but doing some fly fishing too. So I'll be thinking of you
guys. We'll compare pictures. We'll see who gets more fish, right? And thank you, Jay, for your
comment. I see it. Okay. All right. Well, you guys have a great couple of weeks. Take care. And yeah,
watch the warning signs a little bit, right? You know, don't, don't get too over anxious. There's
all things cycle. That's just the nature of the biz all right bye bye for sure I appreciate
you Mish oh yes thank you so much thank you for being here I want to Sam I want to bring you into
the conversation here if you have any thoughts of some of these stocks that are about to be
reporting earnings any of them that you're watching oh man any of them I'm watching I just I want you okay let's see this any of them do you own
we got any of these names in the portfolio so we had uh we're gonna have some pretty interesting
earnings after hours I do I am not I do not have a position in trade desk anymore that's one of the
last ad tech companies to report and we saw really good numbers out of app loving which is more of the
sell side platform reddit which is a walled garden specifically for reddit in case anyone knows no
reddit is and we also had magnite report the other day all did phenomenal in terms of
numbers that they reported and then today we're having trade desk after hours which is basically
on the demand side platform that they do build proprietarily what's interesting about this one
and the reason why a lot of people are looking at it is because they had a crazy fall after the
earnings that they had two quarters ago,
where they went from $110 all the way down to $70 the very next day.
What we're looking at over here is continuation of their bounce from being sub-$50 during April
back up to $88 pre-earnings.
What a lot of Wall Street is looking for is that continued guide upwards
in terms of the adjusted EBITDA margins, as well as margin expansion for that to continue.
The issue was two quarters ago was that they were possibly losing their moat and that they're
going to not necessarily go bankrupt, but they're going to lose their stronghold as
far as the demand side platform market.
What we are going to expect during this earnings coming up, and I am bullish coming to the
earnings, don't have a position particularly, is that we're going to continue to see Jeff Green, the CEO, continue to perform,
continue to make those changes operating-wise within the company, and continue to bring the
company upwards in terms of expanding their moat. Not only that, but in terms of expanding their
revenue to be above 20% growth, which is what the street wants to see. So definitely bullish that
one coming into the earnings. We also have Rocket Lab reporting after us which i'm sure stock sniper provided numbers for those i do have a uh well not a
small position anymore but i did have a position i do have a position in rocket lab as well as
asts or ast space mobile rocket lab as shy has been saying in future and saying it is the
basically the fedex of outer space they're providing logistics for bringing payloads from
the planet of course earth into outer space with space with its low Earth orbit and so on.
They've had Electron, which is their smaller payload system, bringing a lot of payloads into outer space.
And then what we do here and what we're anticipating coming up is more news on Neutron, which is their medium-sized payload rockets.
They're going to be launching out of space.
And this is probably your runner- whenever it comes to spacex obviously spacex is privately is it the private market so we can't
invest in it as far as retail goes when you think about rocket lab expanding further into commercial
and further into governmental contracts which is much more reliant in terms of recurring revenue
rocket lab is definitely i think is definitely early in its game can't really say the same for
the stock price because they basically went a thousand or fifteen hundred times from its lows
around four bucks i think it's like around a thousand times now we also have sound hound um
i mean was never really a fan of that one and i think a stock sniper set was saying that basically
nvidia took up took it off of its venture portfolio and that stock kind of tumbled but you know we're
catching the ai tailwind over here so of course that's gonna be a trader stock blocks reporting after hours you know what um actually
i think and this is a little bit separate from the earnings itself i am pretty sure and i'm not
sure if it got pushed back or anything but paramount is actually finishing up their acquisition
while they're getting acquired by Sundance.
So if that happens, that means that Paramount is going to have to exit SP500.
We're going to get an opportunity for another company to enter SP500.
I've been doing a bit more research on that.
I'm surprised no one's really talking about it.
So maybe that's actually not happening.
I'm not exactly sure. But if that does happen, we do have the possible candidates for the SP500,
retail favorite,
Apple Lovin, and also Robinhood, H-O-O-D.
We already saw Block got included in the S&P 500.
So there's no more disappointment we could possibly set ourselves up for with the misnomer
that no one actually expected in the first place.
But we'll see what happens with that one.
Finally, we got a Bitcoin miner CleanSpark reporting. I'm pretty sure a lot see what happens with that one finally uh we got a bitcoin miner clean
spark reporting uh i'm pretty sure a lot of people into that one indy semiconductor which is mostly
focused on providing silicon for uh automotive vehicles has been catching quite a bit lately i
think it's uh back under four dollars again but if they do report a great quarter bringing in uh
numbers that are going to come up making them look good for 2026 and 2027 this will probably
catch a bit as well uh everyone knows what texas roadhouse is i mean they yeah it's probably one
of the fastest growing restaurants you have in the uh south part of america kratos i'm sure uh
stock talk is going to talk about that one uh another one i'm looking at is atlassian team
ticker symbol t-e-a-m uh which is basically the big proponent or umbrella for a lot of the products that a lot of product
teams use, engineering teams use in enterprises known as Jira and Confluence and so on. I think
a lot of skepticism when it comes to this one is that their cloud conversion rates are starting to
slow down a little bit. So a lot of investors are a little weary about the continued momentum of
this stock. I mean, it literally was cut in half from the last earnings, but it was at 320.
Now it's around 180 bucks.
That'd be really interesting to see what the reversal on those earnings might be.
If it does have one, we are trading near the lows of the 52-week lows.
So, you know, wouldn't be surprised to see that one get a pop.
But as far as that goes, I don't have a whole lot reporting today.
I did have a small trade position indie which i did
sell around five bucks so i would look to get a re-entry in that one but not looking at play
before earnings uh jay frog is also reporting which is another cloud stock as well not too
bullish in that one but we'll see uh but yeah it's pretty much just rock a lab for me all that
for us to come back with i'm watching nothing that was we appreciate i'm watching absolutely
nothing i just want to go to sleep at one o'clock this guy stocky yeah what are some of the names you're
watching give me the one or two that you're watching yo uh yeah i think block is definitely
going to be in focus for me um you know i've kind of owned it since the since the bottom we had a
few months ago um you know i think the setup is a little dicey going into earnings here. This was an interesting
one because they whiffed their quarter in Q1 and the stock took a dive. And then basically,
Jack Dorsey came out and tried to streamline the organization and get them refocused on
product velocity. And so they've been rapid fire announcing a bunch of new products and pushing forward on
some of the growth drivers in the business. And so the stock has rallied quite a bit. They've
had positive comments at conferences on the trajectory of the business in Q2. So I think
the numbers could show some improvement over Q1, but you've had the stock rally, what is it,
like almost 50% in the past three months or so and so the setup is a
little dicey but i'll be interested to see um i've trimmed that position quite a bit i still hold
some and uh so i'll be watching that one closely but you know it's um it's one where it's like
jack dorsey doesn't give you a whole lot of confidence as a shareholder when it comes to the earnings calls, kind of like Snapchat the other day. And so I think that one has the potential for
there to be some disappointment given the stock run up into the quarter. But hopefully they'll
still have some positive things and at least maintain or up guidance for the back half of
the year, which is where they said they were really going to start to shine on some of their
initiatives. And they've got the new Bitcoin mining rigs launching and things like that.
So there's potential there still for a longer term play,
but I think it's kind of a scary setup in the short run for me.
So I'm going to be focused on that a lot.
Rocket Lab is interesting.
I actually have a $4.50 cost basis on that stock.
I think part of that's luck.
Part of that's just fishing for stuff that nobody loves,
which I love to do. But the concern here on this one is it's run a lot. It's also,
if there's any delay in the Neutron launch plan, if that gets pushed early 2026 or anything like
that, you'd have a 30% gap down on the stock. So you got to be a little careful here on that one
as well with the setup, but long-term, I think the story is amazing. You benefit from SpaceX,
just private market valuation, et cetera, et cetera. So yeah, we'll definitely be focused
in on that one too. But I'd say overall, there are some interesting... Software was an interesting
area I saw today that got whacked on the GPT-5 launch. So I've got a position there on an M&A buyout candidate that sold off 7% at one point today
that I think is going to have some interesting upside in the months ahead.
And then cannabis, someone mentioned it earlier, but I'm still a little skeptical.
I'm still a little skeptical. The rescheduling is coming in 2025, but you can't ignore the price
The rescheduling is coming in 2025, but you can't ignore the price action.
action. And there's been increasing flows finally into the ETF after two years of it just getting
decimated. So there's something happening there. We've seen a bunch of Republican influencers
starting to tweet positively about rescheduling, things like that. It's just a question of timing,
but that one can have an explosive upside if we do get some of the regulatory
breakthroughs that the market's looking for in that sector.
So, yeah, it's just some things I'm looking at.
We got the market closing here in about 40 seconds or so.
A lot of these numbers will be coming out.
Someone said we were watching this last hour, and I don't know if it's the whole market.
My portfolio has had a nice tick up.
Still not to the high a day,
but maybe we could call this a half gap.
Where is SPY?
Is that going to close green?
Still a chance.
Still got...
Nah, it's not going to close green.
QQQ will.
Interesting.
Interesting close.
Not bad.
DocTalk, this is Kratos.
So when you're watching,
is that a name that's in the portfolio?
I feel like I've heard you talk about SMR on and off a little too.
I cannot hear him.
Market did just close, by the way.
It's called an elevator.
All right, Sniper.
Give me the one name you're watching the most.
TradeDesk appoints Omar Tawaka to its board of directors.
Monster Energy, the greatest company in the world.
410, we're seeing earnings from them.
But the ones that everybody cares about the most are TradeDesk and Rocket Lab.
I know you're going to start trying to whack me if I start talking about Monster Energy.
We can talk about it in five minutes.
But Kratos did just come out, I'm seeing.
Looks like their revenue was a beat.
What's Kratos doing?
Trade Desk with an initial move higher in After Hours.
Kratos, initial move is lower.
I'm seeing revenue was a beat, 351,
being expectations of 305.
EPS was a beat, 11 cents, being expectations of 305 eps was beat 11 cents being expectations of nine cents
katas not a huge move in after hours just yet
we're expecting trade desk at 401 yes that should be out any second it was moving a little
ttd is part is the desk is out here we go and down And down 10%. Goddamn.
I sold that today. Thank God.
Dude,
you're so mean.
I mean, they're... New chief financial officer.
They were bound
to miss eventually, man.
They missed like two quarters ago or something?
Nope. Four crazy reports in a row.
No, they missed like two quarters ago or something? Nope, four crazy reports in a row. No, they missed like two quarters ago and gapped down massively.
I think it was Q4, and then Jeff Green came out of a conference call saying,
we fucked up, we're going to fix it, we know how to fix it.
And then Q1 was a smasher.
These numbers don't look as...
Apologies, I was confusing it with SMR.
Q1 was low
expectations
coming to this one expectations were definitely higher
you need to see continuation I haven't checked out the numbers
yet the numbers are basically in line
trade desk 41 cents EPS in line
sells
694.03
versus
so they beat by 10 million on cells well with the guy
acquisition also that's a new CFO like I said I don't know if the person just
left
It was a timely sell today
Now it looks like I buy it back 20% lower
Dude you are so brutal
Told you guys
Be bearish
I literally went in and was just cleaning up my portfolio
I was like this one's going to get a good run
It was all luck.
Yeah, that's rough.
Can you guys hear me now?
Yeah, we got you now.
I don't know why I said this every time.
Goodness, they're getting slaughtered.
I've reset my phone and closed all the apps
three times before I can ever
get into the first space.
It makes no sense. It happens every single time.
Anyway. I'm looking at Kratos. It's the only name of mine reporting today. A decent report,
but I mean, stock's gone up a lot. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it down five or six percent.
It's down about four and a half percent here. Not a big beat on really anything inter-quarter,
but as with most of the mid-cap defense defense names thinking is about the contracts that are
downstream that are coming in from the defense edition the big beautiful act and you know other
standard defense contracts as well because we signed a new all-time high defense budget so
yeah stock probably should be down a little bit on this print because a little
you know unremarkable for how much the stock has run in the past three months. But give me a dip back to the 40s, maybe some of these weekly
levels, maybe even back down to the 21 week would be if I wanted to be a real ideal thinker. But
this thing may pull back to 52-ish on this report. I could see it's down to 55 here after hours,
52 ish on this report i could see it's down to 55 here after hours down about 6.7 percent
um but that's a core position for me this week has been great for my core position to nebius today
up 18. sing it yeah uh that was a phenomenal report for anyone that listened to the nebius
report but you know it's rare that a company can sort of skirt by with projections like that but the market was very
very receptive to the idea that they might be at six to seven billion arr uh within the next few
years and if they do get there then the stock is worth certainly a lot more than it is today
uh even after this move so um yeah i really really really, really like the Nebius report. I've been talking about it. Square is out.
What's Block doing?
Up 7%. Initial reaction up.
That's horrible.
Block up 7%.
Wow.
EPS, missing expectations, revenue.
Haven't seen it just yet.
Block, Square, XYZ, SQ. haven't seen it just yet block square xyz sq doing something so i got blocks revenue at 6.054 billion missed by 4 percent in the eps i'm seeing 87 cents versus 68 cents a beat by 28% that's the gap number so the adjusted was 62 cents
yeah that's gap
gap results and the non-gap
expectation I believe is what that is
those numbers are far apart
is there anything on today's earnings
that we're like watching
like a hawk?
square was also one
I want to see take 2 we get in any GTA6 news but nothing really that i care that much about actually amit's grinder is
reporting today wow uh block did say they expect to accelerate gross profit growth in q4
19 growth is what they expect
by the end of the year.
Must be the first time a block investor's ever heard that.
Oh my god, Kratos reversed big off the lows.
I need to see this full Kratos report.
Kratos.
Ooh.
That's a wick.
I thought it should have been down a couple percent on this report,
but maybe they're just that anxious to buy it up.
I don't know. We'll see.
When's the call supposed to be?
Calls should be going on like now.
Let's see on earnings have yet though.
Interesting.
You can go into what you want to though.
I'm seeing Flutter Entertainment came out with a beat.
Instacart's up
I don't see the actual numbers.
I just see the reports out.
Yeah, okay.
So, yeah, crazy week for my core positions.
My non-core positions, not so much.
My core positions had a really, really good week.
Centris Energy had a 20% reaction on earnings.
That's my largest position by weighting.
Nebius is my third or fourth largest position by weighting.
That was up 18% today.
If you listen to the Nebius call, it was, again, like I said, really, really, really excellent.
And for people that don't understand the company, I've talked about it a little bit here before,
how it's a full stack AI player.
They have data center exposure.
They have data observability exposure.
In fact, I think I was given a rant
about data observability like two spaces ago, wasn't I?
Maybe it was this week, wasn't it,
when I was doing that data observability thing?
I don't know, I think it was this week.
But yeah, I've been talking a lot about that,
but that's really what makes Nebius unique.
They have exposure on every aspect of the AI train all the way from the top to the bottom.
And, you know, when you combine data analysis, data observability, you combine Toloka, you have a robotics business with AVRide.
You have a flourishing data center business that, based on the comments they made on the call, simply can't get enough.
Like, they don't have enough supply to meet the demand for their data center business.
They're looking to expand two new greenfield sites in the next two years.
You know, they're looking at hitting 1 billion ARR by the end of this year, which was way ahead of expectations.
Expectations, I think, were at 875.
And so just a stellar report stock deserved to be
up a lot today frankly and and if you saw when the market pulled back this thing I mean pulled
back a little off the highs but still closed up 18 percent in a choppy market today for a lot of
names so I love to see that Robinhood didn't have earnings this week but that's another one of our
core positions was that happened to be up five percent today in the tricky market which was a nice genius pushed back through 12 today
didn't close above it but had a nice move got a ton of price target raises this morning on genius
craig hallam came out with a 16 target guggenheim came out with a 16 target truest came out with a
15 target i agree with what they're all saying basically which is that this is a software story
and not a sports betting story and it's mispriced. If you read Guggenheim's note this morning, they said, look, our thesis remains unchanged in spite of sellers reacting to an EPS miss.
That EPS miss is based on a one-time consolidation of the NFL's newly exercised warrants, in which the NFL took a larger stake in Genius Sports.
Lawrence, in which the NFL took a larger stake in genius sports.
This is proof that genius has built a scaled, differentiated global sport technology business
that the NFL must rely on.
This makes genius well positioned to take advantage from secular sports betting tailwinds.
That's from Guggenheim.
Evercore came, I'm sorry, Truist came out and said stock is overlooked due to a grouping
with the rest of the sports betting industry.
Very similar to the
point I was making. Craig Hallam, 16 price targets saying they expect acceleration in the back half
of the year. That'll make the company look even cheaper than it does today as they inflect into
profitability. They said there will be no one-time exercise in the back half of the year for NFL
warrants. And they expect genius to produce positive EPS in the second half of the year.
So these guys are all really chirping the the tune and i know there's confirmation
bias when it's a stock you own but this is why i read analyst research to see hey are they thinking
the same thing i'm thinking and they have the data to back it up a lot of these guys are proprietary
industry surveys um guggenheim was also talking about uh' IQ software that's now going to be put in, or not instantly, but Genius now has the rights to put that software in every football stadium in Europe after the European Football League extension through 2032. Genius is a $2.5 billion market cap. Exclusive provider of, like, still.
I've been talking about the stock for months on here,
and it went from $9.60 and now it's the $12.
But it's still, like, it's not a big market cap, right?
And you're talking about the exclusive data provider for Premier League,
PGA Tour, NFL, European League Soccer, you know, NCAA, March Madness,
and all NCAA postseason events.
So basketball and football.
Like, those are huge betting events.
Huge.
There are billions and billions and billions of dollars of betting activity.
And now, on top of that, Genius is now a media company, too, after this NFL deal.
Because for those of you that watch Red Zone and NFL Network,
the data you see on NFL Network that gets shown up on the screens, and the players get tagged with and they show a guy running and they're like who's running
that's all genius sports so it's not just the sports betting side it's the media side too that
they have to use geniuses data so yeah i just think the story is too good stock got sold yesterday
on earnings i was like whatever dude i don't care today nice rebound um the market's not always going to see what you see but that stock's going much higher
all things being equal in my opinion um uh you know there was like a bearish engulfing candle
on it yesterday some people were like tagging me in our chat and discord saying are you worried
about this and i was like no because i understand the story about bearish engulfing candle that
daily isn't going to scare me out of a stock like that. So I think it's going materially higher.
I remain long.
I haven't sold any on Genius.
The story is just great.
And they're executing flawlessly.
By the way, a lot of these stocks are still moving monsters up like 10% or 6%.
Monsters never stops going up.
Maple Bear.
Hilarious.
We should have all left the tech companies behind
and just invested in Monster Energy.
Still going up.
We would have been done, yeah.
Instacart was up 20%.
It's pulling back a little bit now.
It was up 25 at the high.
We would have been the three billionaires up here
with Monster and stuff.
We'd all be named Kyle.
Yo, Rocket Lab website is having
way too much traffic right now,
and their website apparently crashed, so we're waiting on the numbers.
I'm not surprised.
Space companies' websites crashed.
Yeah, we could go to space companies.
We're one of the most advanced space technology companies in the world,
but our website does get bogged down on our knees, guys, so bear with us.
We're high tech, promise. Yeah, exactly so yeah, so great week from genius and centrist and nebbius
Which are three out of four of my largest positions Robin Hood is the fourth which also had a great week didn't have earnings
But had a great week. So I'm liking what I'm doing with the portfolio right now
I'm whittling it down to these higher conviction positions and the higher conviction positions are doing very, very well. So that's good to see.
Lyft, it was funny. We were going to write that off as a loss yesterday. We were talking about
this on the call and Lyft came and turned around for us this morning. I actually put out a note
in our discord last night. I'll read the note that I put out last night. This is when the stock
was down 7%, by the way. I think it was shortly after we discussed it here but I don't
was later than that but either way stock was able to 67% and I said I look to
the lyft report and I do not believe lyft should be down as much as it was
yesterday post print they had a slight miss on revenue but double the street
CPS expectations I obviously can't control the market reaction but the
stock is trading at less than one time sales and less than free five times free
cash flow growing revenue double digits year over year.
I don't think that constitutes high expectations.
And then today, what happened?
Dip got bought.
So, I mean, those calls are always tricky to make in a market that's moving against you.
It's sort of a contrarian call.
But I don't know why people were selling Lyft yesterday, and I don't think it is going lower from here.
I'm not a big fan of ride share.
I've never really been a big fan of investing in Uber.
But with today, with Uber trading at whatever market cap, they're trading at, I don't know, 190 billion or something.
If you really go through the Lyft report today to almost 200 billion for Uber, go through a Lyft report,
you'll see that it appears that
they may have taken about a percent of market share away. Now, you may say, what does that
matter to Uber, Lyft, like a percent of market share? I think the reason it matters is because
of how they did it. They did it by regionally superior pricing and by greater availability of drivers in areas where Uber is not have as much
or as speedy service. Now, those are small adjustments. And you'd think, well, what's
the regional capture really going to look like with adjustments like that? The answer is it
looked good enough for Lyft to have their two best quarters ever consecutively this year. Now, now is it expensive no and gross bookings were up almost 15 year-over-year revenue is up 11
year-over-year that's double-digit growth right for stock like that you know especially with a
well-known household name like lyft you'd think okay trading what four or five times sales no
it's trading at 0.9 times sales, 0.9.
Lyft does more revenue in a year than their market cap.
And on top of that, you'd say,
well, dude, they're not profitable, right?
No, they are.
In fact, not only do they trade
at less than one times their sales,
Lyft trades at less than five times their free cashflow,
not earnings, their free cashflow, right?
Lyft will post, what, 337 million times four of free cash flow, right? Lift will post,
what?
337 million times four of free cash flow this year.
Mark kept sitting at 5.88 billion. As of this morning,
you do the math less than five times free cash flows,
4.44 times free cash flow,
0.9 times sales growing double digits.
Like what are we talking about?
Stocks should be doubled.
Sorry.
Rocco lab is up 5.5%.
did you guys get the numbers for that?
Negative.
Yeah. Everyone's trying to hit the site.
I don't know if this is new news or anything, but there is a probe initiated on UNH for nursing homes.
Hold on.
UNH underscended probe for alleged nursing home bonus scheme.
Senators Wyden and Warren are investigating claims that UnitedHealthcare paid nursing home secret bonuses to reduce hospital
transfers and potentially risking
patient care. The stock
is unaffected by that, so I'm not sure if that was news or not,
but I just saw that here.
Not to be. I'm not
a super political guy at all times.
Generally, Warren
on that name on there,
I don't know if much is going to happen
out of it. Some of them are a lot for show.
Let's see. I haven't seen the last
specific one. Most American politics
is for show. Yeah.
Both sides.
But I have not seen the Rocket Lab
numbers yet. It's up, though.
Yeah, up 2.5%.
Yeah, up 2.5%.
We'll see on that one.
40-50.
40-50.
Numbers must be really good for that
because space stock is being killed on earnings
these last couple weeks.
Numbers must be good.
It's up.
I'll say this ahead of time.
I sold Rocket Lab today too.
I sold a lot of stuff today.
I sold a lot of stuff this week. Today I sold lot of stuff this week today i sold well i took a
loss on a day trade on btbt which screwed me today i tried to play it as a sympathy to the
ipod to click a 10 day trade loss on that but outside of that i closed mg and i we entered
that magnite 15 80 back in may close that finally. What else did I close? Closed AIP finally,
which is just a lot of position, small auto position for me. So portfolio is down to 13
positions now. And I was at 20 plus, what, like a month ago. So I've done a lot of position reducing and consolidation
And I'm down to very high conviction names now
Like I don't see myself being a seller of anything else I have here anytime soon
ASTS a buyer I do have some ASDS. Yeah, I do
It's about a what's the allocation at right now?
Let me see.
It was funny you say that though,
because that's exactly what I was doing today with my portfolio.
I was like,
okay.
You're selling the stuff that you don't care about,
you know?
Yeah.
There's things that have run a lot,
things that I'm not like super convicted on still.
Like they,
it played out and I was like,
okay,
we trim down and refocus,
restructure,
put some money in gold.
Warby.
I closed Warby today too.
I know I talked a lot about Warby these last few months.
I closed Warby today.
I liked the earnings.
They weren't as good as I wanted them to be.
I went back.
As you guys know, my main thesis there was the Google Glass partnership.
I went back and read the commentary about the Google Glass partnership, and it looks like it's not as close as I thought.
And so I did get out of that today. We got in around sub 20. So got out today,
you know, in the 24s and ended up fading into the close a little harder than that. So it's nice to
see. But I didn't like the daily earnings fade candle and it was actually relatively high volume
for the stock. So I got out. I think it'll still do well. It's still holding the 200 days, still holding the 50 day. It's not like a stock that you have to panic
out of, but I just have pled better places. I want to put my capital that can work more quickly. But
once the Google glass stuff starts getting more clarity around it, I'll probably get back into
Warby Parker, but I did exit that today too. So yeah, I'm exiting a lot of stuff, you know,
and then there's other stuff that's going down that I'm not exiting, right? Like Kratos is down 5% here.
I won't be exiting that, you know, I'm on Kratos from the low 20s, mid 20s.
It's a $60 stock.
I'm not going to exit it on a 5% move down on earnings.
In fact, I'll be a dip buyer on Kratos.
So I have plans for all my positions.
But as I was saying about Lyft earlier, I'm'm generally not a value guy as you guys know i'm
generally not a this stock is cheap guy but sometimes i am and the stock is cheap like
period less than one time sales less than five times free cash flow it should not be trading
there this should be trading at 10 times free cash flow in my opinion which would double the
stock now you know is it going to double this tomorrow? No. I know whenever I say stuff like this, people are like, when, when, when, like, remember when Genius was
960 and people were tagging me every day? Like, when is it going to go up? Well, it's in the 12s
now. It's 25% higher, right? So you had to be patient. Like, people want everything to go up
the next day after I talk about it. Just woosah, deep breaths, you know, be patient, be calm. But,
you know, I do think I have a high confidence in all
these stocks. Like I think Nebius is going to 100 plus. I think Kratos is going to 100 plus.
I think Centris Energy is going much, much higher than that. In fact, Centris, which closed green
today up 1% after a monster earnings move this week, got a downgrade this morning from B of A.
And you guys know how much I love B of A. I read the report and I just disagreed with them. I talked to our community about that this morning on a pre-market call. But B of A. And you guys know how much I love B of A. I read the report and I just disagreed
with them. I talked to our community about that this morning on our pre-market call. But
B of A came out and said, look, we're downgrading the stock to neutral. We're raising our price
target to 285, which you always love to see that kind of funny stuff. But they said they're raising
their price target to 285, downgrading neutral because they feel like the stock is fairly valued
on an earnings basis, on a price over NAV multiple. For me, the thesis on
this is not about the earnings. I've said this many times on this space about Centrish Energy.
The reason why this has been my largest position by weighting and the reason why it keeps going up,
even after tripling, is because the philosophy here is not about the earnings. The thesis here
is about the rarity of the asset.
In fact, I'm doing a workshop this weekend on something called rarity premium for our members.
I'm going to touch on a few names in our portfolio that fit that profile, but Centris Energy is one of them. Genius Sports is another one of them. Materion is another one of them. I've talked
about all three of those stocks in these spaces for the last month repeatedly, and look at how
those stocks performed this week in a week where a lot
of momentum was weak. Look at Materion this week, up this week. Look at Genius this week, up this
week. Look at Nebius up this week. Look at Centris up this week. These are all my pound the table
stocks. And they're up in a market where momentum is getting tossed in the basket, like just
destroyed. Momentum names this week have been absolutely killed,
even if you go back to last week.
So, and I'm not just talking about momentum names
and momentum leaders.
I'm talking about all the speculative stuff.
All the speculative stuff has been killed.
So I'm glad that the speculative stuff that I'm in
is not getting killed.
That's a sign that I'm picking the right stocks in my view.
Yeah, there's some confirmation bias there,
but to me, it means something when all of these names are pulling back seven, eight, nine, 10%, and
the names of my portfolio are barely read. You know, like ASTS was down a lot today, but it's
a relatively small position for me, you know, 5% position for me. But Nebius, green today. Robinhood,
green today. Genius Sports, green today. Lyft, green today.
Embraer, green today. Centris Energy, green today. Tesla, green today. Amazon, green today. Kratos,
green today, but now red after hours. But still, I shouldn't have had that many names in a 13
position portfolio, green in a market like today, where everything got faded hard off the open.
I should have had a down date. I didn't. I had a big update. So that's where stock picking rewards you, consolidating into higher conviction positions,
getting rid of the garbage. And that's what I've been doing. And now I'm going to be doing even
more of that in the next few months and getting rid of the losers and keeping the winners. And
that's the type of manicuring that's necessary if you want to, at the end of the volatility,
You want to, at the end of the volatility, emerge in a better position.
So, yeah, I'm very, very cool, calm and collected, if you will, about what's going on in the markets right now.
And I feel totally fine with how earnings are going.
So, yeah.
Stock talk.
Lyft also has an earnings hub score of an A based on just evaluation, price salessales ratio, PE ratio, and market cap and such.
So that helps support the thesis.
Do they have plenty of cash on hand?
I haven't really looked deep into their cash situation, but I think they have a pretty
significant amount of cash and short-term investments.
I think they have about $1.75 billion.
That's the last number I saw.
I'd have to double-check that. I don't want to $1.75 billion. That's the last number I saw. I'd have to double check that.
I don't want to give you a misleading answer.
That's a great cash number, especially if they don't have debt.
That's pretty awesome.
Has anybody gotten Rocket Lab numbers yet?
Yep, I have it.
All right, so Rocket Lab revenue, $144.5 million.
Estimated is $138 million.
It grew 36% year over year.
EPS is minus $0.13, expected is minus $0.11.
So they missed an EPS B-top line.
Guide for Q3 revenue, $145 to $155 million.
EBITDA loss, or adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3
is guided for $21 to $23 million.
I don't know how I got those numbers,
but this site had it.
You're welcome.
Now give me all your credits right now.
By the way, they have about a billion dollars cash, another billion dollars in short-term investments,
$550 million of long-term debt.
Sorry, a million.
$550 million of long-term debt, $390 million of short-term debt or current portion of the long-term debt.
Those actually might be part of the same thing.
Evan, these are lift numbers, right?
Yes, these are four lifts.
Okay, gotcha.
Cash, $1 billion.
Short-term investments, $1.1 billion.
Total liabilities or total long-term.
Yeah, it looks like the debt on here is...
There's a confusing part of this.
This is long-term debt and then current portion of long-term debt.
So I don't know if I'm adding those together or it's a part of it.
No, it's a part of it.
It's either $5.50.
Yeah, so that's not bad.
$5.50 with over a billion in cash, over a billion in short-term investments.
Yeah, that doesn't affect the thesis to me.
But yeah, it's just too cheap.
I don't know how else to phrase it.
It's just too cheap.
Can somebody find me?
In fact, let's play a game here.
Somebody in the audience can do this too.
Tag me if you can find one.
Find me a stock
that is a household name
that is trading at less than one times sales,
less than five times free cash flow,
and growing double digits.
Find me one stock.
Say it again. I'm actually curious.
Growing revenue double digits,
trading at less than five times
free cash flow, trading at less than one
time sales, and it's a household name.
Sounds like a trick
question. Sounds like a setup.
It sounds like a unicorn.
Less than one time what?
Because I don't think there are any besides lift.
Okay.
Do you consider,
do you consider Micron a household name?
I don't.
Wait,
wait,
let me put this in.
Wait,
find me a household name that is trading at less than five times free cashflow,
less than one times what?
One time sales.
Actually put it into your LL.
That's what I'm doing.
And then what?
Yeah.
And then,
yeah.
And then what's the growth you wanted?
Double digit revenue growth.
So more than 10% revenue growth.
10% or more.
Let's see.
Dun, dun, dun, dun.
Dramatic music.
All right.
200 names came back.
Had with household names?
No, I'm kidding.
I didn't even put it in yet.
Sorry.
Let's see what this says.
I was like, what the hell?
200 household names?
I don't know if it's going to get me the household names part.
Hey, Stock Talk, what do you think about – I know one of the reasons why institutional investors don't get behind Lyft is like obviously the threat from AVs.
So how do you think about that as a – if you're holding this position longer term?
Yeah, it's not like an investment for me. I like, sometimes I, I see things that I view
as like arbitrage opportunities in the market where like the valuation just doesn't make sense.
And this is one of those, like the valuation doesn't make sense to me. I said the same thing
about Materion. I think, I don't know if you were on the space when I was talking about Materion
stock, but I talked about it like on every space the last two weeks, but Materion, which is my
brilliant play. That was a thesis for me there too. It was trading at less than one time sales
in an environment where rare metal stocks are trading at five to 10 times sales. Some of them
don't even have sales. And so to me, it felt mispriced. I think Materion is still mispriced.
That's why I'm still long stock. And so I have some names in the portfolio that aren't
catalyst or theme driven opportunities
or long time high conviction holds, but they're mispriced in my view. And so I want to own them.
And I think Lyft is one of those. I think Genius is one of those. I think Materion is one of those.
Like, I think all those stocks are mispriced. That's why I own them. Not because like,
just because I love the companies. I do like the companies in all cases, but
like,
I actually think Lyft CEO does not get enough credit.
Anyone hear him on the call yesterday?
That guy's a boss.
Yeah.
He was so passionate.
He also bought stock last in the last,
I think two before the blackout period,
he bought a pretty nice chunk of stock.
I'll have to go look at the amount again,
but yeah,
that guy's a,
that guy's a class act.
I don't know if anybody heard him,
but that dude's passionate.
He was like,
he was talking about how like they still have a desire to compete with Uber,
despite the fact that it's 20 times the size of the company.
He's talking about initiatives they're taking to do it.
He was talking about how Uber's copying all of their new initiatives.
They did the Lyft silver for elderly people,
and then Uber launched a similar thing a month month after, they're, they're not a bad company. I know everyone kind of views it as this like,
oh, it's the shitty little brother to Uber. Like, why would I want to own Lyft when I can own Uber?
And it's like, okay, yeah, I get it. If you're like large cap bias like that,
you want to own the leader in the space, go for it. But like, I don't know.
So on the AV threat side, I think they're doing an interesting thing, which is like they kind of got shut out of the partnership with, you know, Uber's got Waymo and Tesla's doing their own thing.
They got Baidu.
Yeah.
So Baidu, I think, is actually a really interesting way for them to play it.
They also partnered with May Mobility and Mobileye as well.
But like the Baidu play is actually pretty genius because on a global basis, like, you know,
Baidu's AI division is insanely good.
And they've got, you know,
plenty of RoboTaxis on the road in China.
So like, even though it's not a domestic household name
in AVs, like that's probably the best player
they could have gotten, you know,
outside of like Waymo or Tesla.
So that's, I thought that was a pretty good move there.
We'll have to see how the AV stuff plays out, obviously, for them.
They also have an exclusive strategic partnership with United Airlines now,
which I also think is more bullish than the market thinks it is
because they're talking about taking the United Airlines strategic partnership
and having it linked to anyone who buys a United Airlines flight
to get a lift to the airport. I think that's genius. And I'll get a lift back once
they land. That's just like something that's an obvious use case that to me hasn't been
properly addressed. Like anyone got in an Uber to and from the airport, it's annoying.
You have to go to like the Uber section or the lift section and, you know, wait and you're all
peers are pickup zone. I mean, I'm sure everyone's been to an airport and gotten a ride share before, but it's just
not a highly efficient process.
Even though every airport in America basically has now created a separate zone for it and
tried to like build infrastructure for it.
It's still not an efficient process.
Lyft was like, Lyft CEO was talking about this.
He was like, yeah, he's like, we realized that like, you know, some of our highest ticket
customers are to and from airport
rides. Right. And he's like those higher ticket customers, we need to find a way to, you know,
compete in these like higher volume markets, like in New York and in Los Angeles, where there's like
literally constantly hundreds and hundreds of airport rides back and from these major airports
like JFK and the ATL airport, the Colorado airport, by just making a concentrated regional effort in five airport
related regions in the United States, the five biggest, you're talking about potentially
incrementally tens of thousands of rides, right? And then you add on top of that an airline
partnership and it makes it even more attractive. So they're doing the right things. They have a partnership with JPMorgan Chase for JPMorgan Chase employees,
which is obviously the biggest bank in the world. They have a partnership with United Airlines and
now they have a partnership with Baidu for autonomous driving. And meanwhile, the stock's
trading at less than one time sales. Like I don't get it. I genuinely don't get it. The stock should
be 20 bucks. So yeah, I'm trying to capture a little bit of value arbitrage here, but it just
does not make sense to me.
And every time I felt this way, I've usually been right.
So I felt that way about Genius under 10.
I felt that way about Materion under 100.
I felt that way about, you know, Kratos and Centris and Nebius and all these stocks that I've done well on.
I felt this exact same way.
So I don't I just don't get it.
Stock will be higher if the market doesn't go down.
Obviously, if the market pulls back, the stock will pull back. I don't want anyone to get any weird ideas about this being
like Mr. Invincible when it comes to stocks. If the market goes down, lift's going to go down.
But if the market holds up, I think it can perform even if we're not in a rip-roaring move
and the index is to the upside, I think the stock can perform. I think you saw that today with the
way the stock kind of bit off the lows. I think Evan was texting me this morning when it was recovering.
Evan was like, hey, look, don't jinx it, but Liv's recovering. And I was like, yeah, yeah,
let's see. And popped nicely three or 4% of the upside today. So I like that one. I'm going to
be talking about less names in the back half of the year. I know you guys heard me talk about a
lot of names in the front half of the year. I know you guys heard me talk about a lot of names in the front half of the year. I am a conviction-based trader and investor,
and now I'm getting a smaller and smaller basket.
So the names that I own right now,
I really think are must-own names.
That's why I own them.
Why else would I own them?
Putting my money where my mouth is.
So yeah, I have about 13 positions now.
Maybe by the end of tomorrow, it might be down to 10.
Who knows?
But I'm getting closer to that point where I have a lot of cash.
I have a lot of high conviction positions with deep cost-based advantages.
I like being able to scroll through my portfolio and not see anything red.
I like that feeling.
I know people think it's under or overrated and like it doesn't really matter and cost
basis doesn't really matter.
There's some cohorts of investors and traders that believe that i'm not in that camp i think
protecting your psychology as an investor or a trader is half the game you know yeah we'd love
love for it to all be computerized and zero emotion and like you know i'm a i'm a big boss
i don't i don't cry you know everyone to feel like that. They can approach the market with zero emotion, but you can't.
No matter how good you are, how experienced you are, you cannot approach it with completely zero emotion because you're a human being.
Unless you have somebody else managing your account, but that's also probably a human too for now.
for now. So, you know, that person has emotion as well. But it's nice, you know, when you have
So that person has emotion as well.
deep cost-based advantages to say, okay, even if the stock pulls back five or 10%, I'll still be
deep in the money on my cost basis. I can still hold it. I can still build into the position.
And the reason that entries matter is because cost basis matters, right? Like when you get a
great entry on a stock, you can afford to do things like ride it into earnings, right?
If you buy a stock the day before earnings, that's risky.
Because now you're opened up to binary risk on a position with zero cost basis advantage and you either get buried or you win.
Right?
That's like a 50-50 play.
But it's different if you're holding a stock to earnings.
By the way, some people have been waiting for this for a while.
May 26, 2026, Take-Two just confirmed
Grand Theft Auto 6. That's the release date.
Wow, May 2026?
Is this the first time
they've put an actual date?
I think so.
I think so.
Usually they say what quarter
they expected or something.
How long has it been?
They're going to charge $100, Bob.
That's going to be a huge success, but
that's going to be a huge success.
We'll see. We've got to wait another year
for it, but the stock is moving a little higher
in after hours. I think this is the first time we've
gotten a confirmed date.
Sorry, I thought
some people might care about that one.
One or two of you have been waiting a long time.
Tuck, you a big gamer like Evan?
I'm not a big gamer, but I do like gaming sometimes.
Imagine people who bet on that release date on Polymarkets.
Oh my goodness.
Any arena breakout players out there, hit me up.
Hit me up.
Me and Sam were like, we got kids.
Yeah, I know.
That's just not happening with me.
The last Grand Theft Auto I played was San Andreas going down.
You're going to play GTA 6 with me, Sam.
I'm going to drag you in.
Dude, I don't even have a PlayStation or anything. Nothing. I'm sending it to you right now on Amazon. Oh, I'll take it. I'll take it. I'm going to drag you in. I don't even have a PlayStation or anything.
I'm sending it to you right now on Amazon.
I'll take it.
I don't have one either.
I don't have one.
I'm like a QB.
Send PS5s to all the stocks
on Spaces panel.
Let's go.
As long as you guys block for me.
I got you.
I was kind of looking around.
Soktak, I want to ask you this.
Does this surprise you how many names are, like a lot of earnings season,
it feels like the average is that usually the implied move.
It stays within the applied move.
It's about half and half.
But it seems like there are wild
I guess maybe expectation
misses. Not really on the numbers,
but the stock reactions.
Half of them seem like they're going up 20%.
The other half seem like they're going down 20%.
Do you have any idea?
Is it just like the street
had no idea what to expect or how to position
themselves into this quarter?
This has been kind of wild.
I've got some data from FACTS that actually shows the negative reactions this earnings season have been worse than average.
Positive, I think, was roughly in line.
But the beat rate and the overall earnings growth for the quarter across the S&P 500 is actually pretty good.
Like, earnings growth is about 10% in aggregate, pretty high beat rate overall.
But the stock reactions have been where there's been a lot more negative downside reactions
than normal.
That is interesting.
So the overall number is good, but the amount of major negative reactions is above average.
Yep.
Do you have any take on that? I'll talk to that again.
Do you have any take on why that might be?
Do you think it's just maybe the uncertainty that we had this entire summer, this entire last quarter?
I think it's i think it's uncertainty i also think it's like a propensity for people
to feel unsure about individual stocks because of what's happening in the macro environment like
there was a great post yesterday god it was from somebody that i know so i don't want to
i always read stuff on my feed and then like i forget who it's from so i feel bad because i
don't want to like take people's ideas.
But somebody posted this yesterday and said everyone's concerned about rate cuts when we should be concerned about tariffs.
And I agree.
Like I couldn't agree more.
You know, like I get that the tariffs now are way lower than they were when we were on April 2nd and the market unwinded.
But like some of the tariffs are pretty high still.
And there are companies like 15% to 20% tariffs is not a small number
if you're getting 90% of your input goods from a nation that's subject to those tariffs.
as terrorists. That's a big deal. That can destroy your margins, right? So there are baskets of
That's a big deal.
That can destroy your margins.
companies that are immune to it. In fact, Kratos, which just reported right now, After Hours,
is pretty immune to terrorists. They're like almost 90% of inputs are domestic. It's because
they have a lot of proprietary, self-tooled, self-manufactured technologies, which allows you to do that in terms of composition.
But there are, I don't know, probably at least in the mid-cap world, I look at two or three
dozen companies that are really tariff immune. But here's the thing. Just because you're tariff
immune on the input side, meaning I'm not going to take any direct costs or direct tariff related costs from those inputs versus the normal scenario.
That's the basic downside. But the real downside is a freezing of international trade as a whole.
Right. That's that's the real like if you want to think about an apocalyptic scenario for markets that could come up next year or the end of this year. That's it. That's the big kahuna.
Is that we see global trade volumes just overall slow down.
Like that's more dangerous than not cutting rates. That's more dangerous than some labor data misses.
That's very dangerous because that's the lifeblood of the global economy is free trade.
And, you know, again, whatever you think about whatever your political view is on bringing jobs
back home to America, which, by the way, I'm in favor of when it comes to industries like
semiconductors and shipbuilding and these very specific industries I'm in favor of. We talked
about this many, many months ago as to what my view was on it. I'm in favor of that with specific
industries. I'm not in favor of it broadly. And different people have different opinions on it.
Some people are in favor of it broadly. Some people want plastic toys made here. I don't
want plastic toys made here. I don't want cotton t-shirts made here. Some people do.
So it just depends on what your political view is. I'm not going to speak for anyone's political
view. But whatever your opinion is on tariffs, you must at least acknowledge
the basic logic that there is a potential for it to slow global trade. Because the way global trade
is set up is unique. Because most people think that when a country is rich, that they versus,
like, okay, let's say there's two economies, they both have a 10 trillion GDP. The layman will look at that and
say, well, they both have the relatively the same impact to the global economy, right?
That's not true, because certain nations are more isolationist than others, and certain nations
are more consumptive than others, right? There's manufacturing nations, there's isolationist
nations, and there's consuming nations. Those are the three big groupings. OK, now it's more nuanced than that.
But again, I'm speaking to the layman crowd here.
Those are the three big groupings of geopolitical economic affiliation.
Are you consumptive? Are you manufacturing wise productive?
Or are you sort of an isolationist economy that's protecting all of your internal industry and trying to grow internal industry? Now, that bucket, the protectionist bucket,
is generally reserved for smaller emerging economies because they don't want to invite
foreign competition, right? If I'm a small country and I have two or three million people,
you know, and I have a new car company that was founded in my country, but then I open up my
country to GM to sell. Well, my new car company is not going to survive, right? My nation's first
car company is not going to survive because GM has the scale to outcompete and outprice that
company. So what do I do? I put tariffs on foreign vehicles. I provide some tax incentives to the domestic company.
And in five years or 10 years, maybe it grows into a hundred billion dollar company and then it can compete on the global market.
And then I drop the tariffs and blah, blah. And now my economy is like a southeastern Asian economy.
Great example of this is a lot of the southeastern Asian economies that are booming now.
Right. In Thailand and Malaysia and the Philippines. That's a great example of that. Now, alternatively, what happens is sometimes you have mature
economies that develop in different ways. So the United States was originally a manufacturing
economy, but became a services and consumption economy post-World War II, when the U.S. dollars
reign over the rest of global currencies made Americans rich, it made us rich.
Right. Post World War Two, America was by virtue of our buying power, a much richer country than we should have been absent of that shift in currency strength.
And as a result of that, Americans live amazing and still do live amazing lives compared to the rest of the world because of the buying power of the U.S. dollar. And so we became a services and consumption economy. But China, in the meanwhile,
did it a different way. They had a massive population and an authoritarian government
regime that could literally make things happen in the snap of the figure with no red tape.
Well, what does that conducive for? Factories and manufacturing and scale. And they did it.
And they did it so rapidly in a 20 year period, which is rapid for that kind of transformation, that they captured most of the global manufacturing share.
And so you ended up with two titans across the water, one that buys everything and one that makes everything.
And when I say everything, I don't mean everything, but China makes about a third of everything
and we buy about a third of everything.
That's rough numbers, but that's essentially global trade.
Global trade is, the lifeblood of global trade
is that exchange relationship
between the two largest economies in the world.
You will make it and we Americans will buy it. That has been what
has run and grown the global economy for 25 years. Now, both parties, this is not a partisan view,
both parties over the last five years believe that China has become more of a threat to the
United States. I would also probably agree with that. Even if you don't agree that they're,
you know, have some kind of hostile intentions immediately,
they are clearly a competitor of ours and they are clearly becoming more powerful economically
and militarily. That part is undeniable. So whether or not you think China wants war with
the United States or wants to displace the United States, the point is, is they're the only country
that can. And so from basic game theory standpoint, if we're looking around as the United States saying who is our biggest threat by de facto, it is China because they are the only one that can compete with us on scale of anything militarily or or economically.
So. There's been a bipartisan approach over the last five to 10 years to untangle the United States and China, to detangle them.
And both parties have pushed this.
They both had different strategies to do it.
And it seems like we're going to continue to push in that direction, especially if you look at what the EU is doing as well, which is effectively the same thing.
Effectively the same thing.
Now, that creates a dynamic where that relationship I talked about, the we buy and you make relationship, is ripe for disruption.
The problem is there aren't a lot of candidates to step up to the plate to fill that vacuum.
A good industry stock market related example of this is apple computers okay so apple knew
a decade ago that this was coming okay there's a like a famous leaked chat with tim cook and
it's been shared on twitter many times the famous leaked chat with tim uh tim cook and his
executives it's like a year after he came in about like what are we going to do about the
u.s and china it's like a the whole was a leak, but he was like message emailing his top management.
And this is when U.S.-China tensions were really starting to pick up like eight or nine years ago.
We are going to nonchalantly and literally nonchalantly move production gradually and nonchalantly to areas like Vietnam and Indonesia and Thailand and Malaysia and India.
And now we know that a lot of iPhone final assembly is happening in India now, something like 25%. We also know that most AirPod assembly now is happening in Vietnam,
or Vietnam or Malaysia, I forgot, one of those two countries, wherever the AirPod factory is.
So we know Apple is trying to make this pivot. Now they're making glass in the United States,
right? Some final assembly of phones in India. This is an attempt by Apple. And by the way,
it's not just Apple. I'm just using Apple as a case study of this. Many, many American companies that have huge businesses in China have been attempting to
do this in the last few years, which is attempting to find vacuum fillers for the U.S. and China
trade discord.
Because if you think of the U.S. and China's trade relationship, think of it as a million
strings connecting the two countries.
And every time tensions go up, one or two of those
strings snap, okay? Whether that's rare metals or semiconductors, and you see less and less trade
in those specific industries, right? Think of each string as an industry. You see less and less
trade in those industries. You have to have someone else to fix the string, another country. And the problem is, is we do not have,
like there is no one, like there's no one else.
There's no one else with the manufacturing power of China
and there's no one else with the consuming power
of the United States.
So it's like this, it's like this, you know,
bad romance between the United States and China.
And it's like very hard to get out of it.
And why do you think that
we've met with them 50 times in the last three months at our delegations? We keep meeting and
we thought the tariff stuff was over and then they're meeting again on the August 25th.
Why does that keep happening? Because both sides know this. Both sides know we have leverage.
We can force you to stay in this and you have leverage and you can force us to stay in this.
So what the fuck are we doing? That's what both sides are are saying and until there are alternatives that will remain the case
now there are a few alternatives emerging in very specific areas australia is is purporting itself
a uh you know bastion of rare metals southeast asia Southeast Asia is reporting itself as the new hub for
manufacturing in that part of the world. And in some parts of Southeast Asia, the dollar
cost of productivity per hour is actually lower than it is in parts of China. So there is actually
a cost advantage emerging in parts of Southeast Asia now, too. The issue is, if you're a business and you say, OK, I want to take advantage of the labor cost advantage in Southeast Asia, you then also have to forfeit all the logistical and infrastructural to be cheaper in Indonesia. Why? Less road infrastructure, less port infrastructure, less logistical infrastructure in general, more sloppy and hard to follow regulations.
They're just not as developed a nation as China is, right? It's not an insult to Indonesia or Malaysia or Thailand or any of these places. They're just not as developed as China is. They don't have the infrastructure. You can't move tons and tons of freight and equipment easily in and out of communities
and cities like you can in China that has massive highway systems and like, you know, world-class
roads. Not many countries have that. You know, in the United States, we weigh the US lens and we're
like, oh, everyone must have an interstate highway system. No, they don't. In fact, most countries
have nothing close to an interstate highway system, You know, in fact, China doesn't even really China has a highway
system that I'm like, what we would what we would consider our interstate highway system as Americans.
So these are all issues that have to be addressed. And it's going to take a long time. I think the
people who think that it can be done in a few years are just they're being misled either by lack of information or just not thinking about it. But
you know, you have to move millions of tons of equipment. You have to build millions of tons
of infrastructure, probably billions. You have to move, you know, maybe trillions of dollars in capital, but at least
hundreds of billions of dollars in capital. You need to convince shippers to take on new routes.
Like there's so much nuance. It's not just like as simple as saying like, I'm not trading with
you anymore. I'm going to buy it from Vietnam instead. Like, Vietnam can't meet the capacity.
They don't have the logistical infrastructure.
You know, they don't have the port.
Like, it just doesn't make sense.
We have to be measured with this and slow with this.
Do you think we're running into this automation theme?
I feel like you force everything at once, and before stuff is quite here.
But the way this world is moving and the whole automation theme
seems to be something that's only going to continue
to grow and this conversation
might have different relevance in 10 years, you know?
But at this point in time, for sure.
Unironically.
I'm glad you brought that up because that is the solution.
Mass adoption of
autonomous manufacturing
is a solution to this problem. But I don't know when
we're going to get there. That's, that's the big question. You know, is that going to happen
immediately? Or is that going to happen in a decade? That's the hard part to like, to know,
because, you know, but it might be, you know, innovation by necessity sort of thing,
where, you know, American companies are like, dude, we cannot build this with American labor.
We need to find another way to build it.
And by necessity, they innovate these areas more rapidly.
That could be an accelerant if you really think about it.
You ever look into Rockwell before?
Are you okay?
Yeah, I have.
Yeah.
I like them.
I'm more of a mid-cap guy as you know, because I try to find
more upside.
37 billion? I mean, I know that's not smid cap,
but in a new world,
it's not that far off. 38 billion
is what this says.
That's not bad, actually.
I'll see what it's
trading at, what the actual fundamentals are.
But yeah, I like Rockwell.
I like Rockwell. I don't know if this is what the actual fundamentals are but yeah I like Rockwell I don't think the true winner on robotics
in this mid-cap world
is on the public markets yet
because I haven't seen anyone that's convincing me
figures not that convincing to me
Brett Adcock has a pretty shady history
I do think Tesla is if i had to like
close my eyes and be like what's one publicly traded company that will probably play a role
in robotics i think probably tesla probably amazon uh well not probably both of them i think
definitely will um who's gonna be the first person to make a trillion dollars on robotics
probably nvidia maybe not a trillion that on robotics? Probably NVIDIA.
Maybe not a trillion.
That's probably maybe too high a number.
Billions or something.
Yeah, they're going to be the first ones profiting off this.
Yeah, that's true.
They will be the first ones profiting off it.
Probably a trillion dollar in market cap, easily.
Yeah, I don't know.
NVIDIA seems like a train you can't stop right now,
at least not until people think that this can be done another way.
I know we hit for a blip back in February.
We had a moment when DeepSeek where it seemed that way,
and obviously that changed with everyone doubling down on their commitments.
Obviously, that changed with everyone doubling down on their commitments.
But there may come a day where people say,
okay, we don't need all of this compute.
We've already put them all over.
I just don't know.
Again, yeah, what you need to start to see is the people who are,
to NVIDIA not being the only person profiting from this.
from this.
And you see that Meta quarter, you see some of this other stuff.
you see some of this other stuff.
But no one's still profiting
from that mass amount of GPU spend
at this point in time.
So OpenAI is getting very big.
That's a $400 billion valuation.
I'm very curious to also see
when we get to the point
when we have to recycle all this stuff,
how far out is that?
What's the second generation
of these GPUpus look like
going forward um i think there's a lot of questions to be asked i don't know how that
works into the valuation right now but we have not heard anything to see you be negative and i i'd
argue you're starting to see that pathway for the secondary companies actually profiting yeah i did
i mean yeah nvidia's making all the money because the hardware is the first step.
But yeah, I mean, they'll continue to make money.
But I mean, the real money I think will be made on whoever gets to this generalized AGI at first.
You know, I was thinking about this the other day.
And like right now we have an ecosystem where there's a lot of AI rappers, right?
And like perplexity is probably the most famous, but there's a lot of AI rappers.
And for people in the audience that don't know what that means,
what that means is that you take a foundation model,
like ChatGPT or Cloud or Grok or whatever, and you put a UI interface on top of it to make it seemingly built, I think is the right way to put it, to make it seemingly built for a specific task.
In other words, the foundation model is doing all the work in the background.
I believe, I could be wrong, is this what Palantir does too a little bit?
I don't know, I'm not a Palantir guy, you'd have to ask one this what Palantir does too a little bit? I don't know.
I'm not a Palantir guy.
You'd have to ask one of the Palantir guys about that.
Wrapping is, that's what it is.
Wrapping is when you take a core software,
you put a layer of superficial software over the core software
and present the product in a different way.
That's, some people call it white labeling. Some people call it wrapping. Did your phone crack? the core software and present the product in a different way that's some
people call it white labeling some people call it your phone crack you just
kept talking it didn't even pick up your phone no I tried to set my phone on this
thing it just dropped off it don't like fall off a big thing um they got one of
those charges oh yeah so all there's a bunch of these multi-billion dollar
companies right now that are
just rappers.
Like you have these people who are like specializing in building,
an AI for spreadsheets.
You have these people who are specializing in building an AI for this or for
that.
Like all these specialized AIs you're seeing from startups are just rappers
of foundation models.
Now,
what I am pretty sure is going to happen,
and this is my guess,
I'm not saying it's 100% for sure gonna happen,
I'm not saying to bet money on it,
this is what I think is gonna happen.
I think the parents are gonna eat their children.
And what I mean by that is that I don't think the foundation model, owners of the foundation models, have any reason to give up market share to the wrapper companies.
And I don't think they will. I think it's just temporary.
So what I think will happen is that as the foundation models get closer and closer to general intelligence, which they are pretty rapidly progressing towards, as they get closer and closer to general intelligence, there'll be a benchmark
or a point at which OpenAI says, okay, now we're going to put all of these wrapper style prompts
and specialized call outs for our models. we're gonna put those in the background
and let the model fetch them
so that you'll go back to square one
from a convenience standpoint,
and you will just interact directly
with the foundational model.
Instead of having perplexity downloaded
and AI finance guru.com downloaded and AI, uh, trip planner.
This is why, this is why perplexity is worth 18 billion and open, open AI is worth 400 billion.
Exactly.
It agrees with you.
Yeah, exactly.
Exactly.
And honestly, the market probably doesn't, there's no way $400 billion off of that.
Maybe, I guess.
So I think it's an AGI.
I think it's gotta be.
Yeah.
But I think the rappers get killed. Like, I think the parents eat their children is what I'm saying.
And I think what ends up happening is that these foundation models become the entire point of
access. So you as a consumer should just be able to go to your foundation model and say,
I am planning a trip to Italy. Give me three flight
options. Give me five options for places to stay. Scan all travel sites for the best price.
And it should be able to do that without having to go to an AI travel app, which is just a wrapper
of ChatGPT anyway. Same thing for finance questions. Instead of going to Perplexity Finance,
I should be able to just go to ChatGPT and say, hey, analyze this balance sheet for me. I should not need to download a specific app
to serve a specific AI purpose. And if I'm being honest, I know this is just me speculating. I'm
pretty sure this is obvious to guys like Sam and Elon and Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella as well.
I'm pretty sure they're also looking at this like, why are we letting these rapper companies take thousands and thousands of hours of user time
that should be going to the foundation models?
That's exactly what they're thinking, I can promise you.
And they're like, this doesn't make sense.
But they're probably allowing it to exist for now.
And if you're out there, you're probably like, well, why not flip the switch now, StockDoc?
Why are they allowing the wrappers to exist?
Well, it's a pretty simple business strategy.
You allow the wrappers to market for you, right?
So now you have an army of hundreds of companies effectively marketing ChatGPT when you don't even have to do that.
They're just building temporary businesses on top of your model, selling them to the public.
You know what I feel like ends up happening here,
though, at one point is the leader leads
and the second goes open source
or third goes open source.
And, you know, maybe there is their survival here.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
What I mean by the parents are going to eat their children
is, yes, you're right.
All of the wrapper companies
will have to default to the open source model.
Now, in a scenario where the open source model is better than the leading paid model,
then yes, they skirt by, right?
But here's why I think that's still not important.
Because even if that happens, so let's say, I don't know,
ChatGPT jacks up their API prices by 5,000% to try to kill the rappers.
They jack up their API prices.
A bunch of rapper companies can't afford it.
And then there's an open free model for meta, let's say.
That's open source.
So they all hop on that.
If that model is competitive or better, then yeah, rapper companies live to see another date.
But that doesn't solve the consumer problem
because the consumer still wants convenience, right?
Like, I don't know the data on this,
but I'd love to know the data on this.
Maybe Evan, you can pull it up on an LLM.
But like, how many apps does the average person use a day?
Like, I don't know what the number is,
but I would love to know that
if you get that number let me know
my point is that users
love convenience, consumers love convenience
there's a reason behind
every megatrend this year
it's the reason behind the e-commerce megatrend
who knows if we trust this
I think it's less than I would have thought
the average person according to
perplexity comment link up in the next above hashtag
ad, the average person uses 9 to 10 different apps per day and interacts with about 30 apps
per month.
Maybe let's try Average American, see if that changes it.
Does that feel low?
How many did you say, sorry?
9 to 10, 30 on average per month.
That feels reasonable to me.
I mean, I don't use many apps in a day.
I use Twitter, like Zoom in the mornings.
Most Americans have between 80 to 87 installed,
but average daily use is concentrated in a smaller core set that's closer to 10.
Okay, well, that corroborates the point I'm trying to make, which is that
like
no one envisions the AI
future as one where you have to
go to your finance AI
then have to go to your
fucking
travel AI, then have to go to your chef
AI, then have to go to your
date planning AI
or whatever the hell. Like, you don't
want to have all these things on separate models. You want to have a model that can do everything.
That's what everyone wants. Like, I don't know any reasonable person that's like, yeah, I want to
have a specialized AI for every single purpose in my life. I'll have 26 AI apps on my phone and have
to go through each of them when I want to do something. That's like ridiculous and silly,
right? Don't go too far in this rant. We might get you bullish on Apple at some point, go through each of them when I want to do something. That's ridiculous and silly.
Don't go too far in this rant.
We might get you bullish on Apple at some point.
Or at least a possible turnaround.
How are you entering into all of these?
We're still in the business.
How many LLMs do you think there are going to be, Stock Talk?
We saw 27
smartphones try to come out
and then we're down to what?
Three major brands across the world.
Dude,
in five years,
think about this.
In five years,
open source models will be able to build you an LLM.
You think about that?
Yeah.
I mean,
that is why I mean,
obviously you can already watch people like sitting at home and download an
open source model and be like,
build me my own LLM.
You know,
like they'll probably be able to do that.
You know what, though?
And one thing I will say.
There's going to be like a three tier.
These are the three main ones running, like Grok, ChatGPT, and more others.
I don't know.
I envision a world where you can say, here are the power parameters.
Here's the amount of compute I have.
Here's the use cases I want.
Design me a new LLM
from the top down. You tell this to a foundational model, you tell the meta foundational model,
design me a new LLM from the top down that fits all of these specific parameters and hardware
constraints that I have, you know, and test it against three other variants and assess performance
across these six tests. Like Like that's easy to do.
And I feel like in a few years you'll be able to do that.
So at a certain point, AI will be training AI.
AI will be making AI.
You will be making other AI using AI.
That's like, that's what's going to happen.
I think people are not ready for that.
Like everything is going to be AI.
It's too late, guys.
The cat's out of the bag. The cat's out of the bag. The cat
is out of the bag. I mean, Salesforce CEO just was on an interview last week. He said up to 50%
of the coding work at Salesforce is now done by AI. Satya Nadella said 30 to 40% of Microsoft.
Sam Ullman said they're getting close to half. Like, and they're an AI company, and they're
getting close to half of the work being done AI company. And they're getting close to half
to the work being done by their own AI.
Like, that's even kind of a mindfuck to think about.
And then, you know, in the backdrop,
you have everyone in the world
spending trillions of dollars on chips
to make these AI even better.
Like, it's just a snowball.
So, yeah, to your question on,
in the future,
is it going to be these three major foundational models?
I think they'll be,
I think each of the big tech companies
will have a foundational model, maybe except Apple,
maybe Apple will rent somebody else's like they always do. But I think all of them will have a
foundational AI model. And then the rest of the world will, where appropriate, either use those models through apis or rent them or um if they're open source just use them
outright now i know meta's pretty dedicated to open source we'll see if that changes as i think
it's already changed i think it's already changed you think it's already changed right yeah i think
they've already gone more towards closed sourcesource models. I think they announced the next Llama one is going to be closed.
Yeah, and you know why, Evan?
Because everyone, it's easy to be noble when it's commoditized.
He's going for number one.
Yeah, listen, you're not number one.
It's a great marketing tactic to get you out there.
But Zuckerberg is...
I don't know how you don't own Meta.
You believe in this kind of VR glasses aspect of it.
I get you go for the spin cap, but they got the engine.
They're building the hardware aspect out of it.
Yeah.
Meta seems like maybe a better play than Amazon.
I like Meta a lot.
I wish I owned it, honestly.
I'm kind of annoyed that I don't own it.
That's one Mega Cap stock that I want to own that i don't own um because they've been
you do realize meta amazon is still larger than meta yeah i know i know i mean i still love amazon
it's not that doesn't change my opinion on amazon but i do like meta i don't really like most of the
meg seven outside of amazon so i do really like meta but maybe one day i'll get an entry maybe
the next market crash that's what i'll buy that's next market crash. That's what I'll buy. That's a good idea, actually. That's what I'll buy in the next market crash.
Wait, when is that?
When is the next crash?
Can you just tell us when?
When? Yeah, when crash.
When's that next crash?
I wish I knew.
I think we'll have another pullback, my thought would be, this year.
No, we'll have another crash, too.
It's probably going to be a nice pullback at some point this year.
Maybe one of those 10% guys. I don't know if it's right now dan niles was on
the spaces talking about q4 no one has that that crystal ball but dan niles he's had some he's had
some good calls that cash at the start of the year started to look good in in april and then
i know he made some moves there so i don't know but the end of the year could look really really
interesting i was gonna ask talk what he
thought about that i had a conversation with jaguar the other evening about these retailers that
one i mean there's so many variables here but one do tariffs stay in place with where they're at
if they are or or do we see like continued concessions made and exceptions exemptions all
this stuff?
But if these retailers have front run all these tariffs and then they get stuck with a ton of inventory and they have to start discounting it or if they get, you know, it could be a really, really interesting Christmas season.
It could be. It could be. And, you know, I think I still think, again, I did the whole tariff rent for a reason.
I still think that's the biggest risk to the whole economy.
And we need to find a way to either navigate around that or figure it out.
So, I mean, I talked a lot about it earlier. You missed those comments.
Go back and listen to my earlier comments on tariffs. I'm not going to repeat all that.
But that needs to be resolved in some way, shape, or form.
And it may end up just being that everything important is exempt,
which seems like the point we're getting to.
I put a tweet out the other day.
This semiconductor tariff, I don't even know if you're paying it.
Bank of America dropped a note after hours when that tariff was announced.
And Bank of Americaica was like yeah
our analyst team sat down to assess who's going to be exempt from tariffs and they literally listed
like 30 companies that have made commitments so it's like what are we talking about like i i don't
even know if it's just for show at this point like tsm is exempt samsung's exempt micron's exempt like
all the big semiconductors are exempt intel's obviously exempt because it's sort of messing anyway um and then you look at the auto
industry all the big car manufacturers are exempt even the foreign ones i was thinking a little bit
actually not a but kind of like uh hey if you start to pull back this i can point to this so
kind of uh like a gun to people's head who are already doing stuff
that's what I was thinking otherwise and maybe that's what this was no I think this is like
honestly a matter of like the companies that are able to achieve visibility and make their case
are able to secure exemptions I think that's all this is I think like I I'm giving credit to Trump
here I think that when Tim goes to the White House and or Jensen goes to the White House and is like, dude, you can't do this.
We cannot pivot this quickly.
Like, this is why X, Y and Z.
I think he's listening to them, which is why obviously they've been given exemptions.
And the same thing with the automobile industry.
Remember when this tariff stuff first started?
He's like, I may make exemptions.
I may make exceptions, but it's not going to be on the auto industry. Like everyone's getting auto tariffs. Do you guys remember that? That
was like at the very start, everyone has gotten auto exemptions, Mercedes, Rolls Royce. In fact,
during the UK deal in the white house, he was like, Oh yeah, these tariffs are going on, but
except Rolls Royce, because they've been selling to America for a long time. And then when he was
talking to the EU, he was like, oh, yeah, Americans love Mercedes.
So, you know, we won't put tariffs on them.
It's like, so who's getting the tariffs?
Just like small companies?
I don't know.
So that's interesting to me that, like, there is an ability to, the situation is malleable, is the way I'll put it.
To where companies can go make their case. And it seems
like Trump is responsive to that. It seems so far he has been to say, okay, you know what,
Jensen, I get it. You can't make all the chips here. You need TSM still. That's fine. You're
exempt. Okay, Tim, I get that you can make the glass here, but you can't make the whole phone
here. That's fine. You know, tout the glass. Let's do a PR about it. Let's get the people excited.
But I get that you can't make all the phones here. So just make the glass. And then he does a little PR and does a
smiley face and they give him a little thing. And like, hey, we move on. And Apple's exempt.
And Apple goes up 3%. And it's like three weeks before that, Jensen was at the White House.
And then two days after that, we get this huge list of adjustments to the semiconductor policy
on the White House tariff website. And there's like 20 pages of exemptions. And then this week, we get the news about the
100% tariffs. And then Bloomberg comes out and B of A comes out and says, everyone's exempt.
It's like, what are we doing? You know, and I think that's why the market's not going down.
I think the market's not going down because the market's like, what the fuck is going on?
Like, you know, I really feel like it's a boy, boy, you cried wolf effect.
Where even now the market, like the tariffs went into effect, supposedly, went into effect last night.
Right. And actually, I don't want to say supposedly because they did.
There are people posting customs receipts today of like all tariffs, tariffs.
And they're posting customs receipts all over twitter today
you can just look it up on your feed and you'll see a bunch of posts but um so they've gone into
effect last night okay so people are paying tariffs as of today but like who's paying the
tariffs if it's not any of the big you know economy moving companies you know i i don't know if it's as material as we thought it was. And that's the
tricky part here is like, I don't know, you know, I want to believe that it's for show and that he's
going to be softer on tariff policy because he's made it seem that way. But at the same time, I
also don't know. He could also just pull a random ace out of his sleeve and be like, you know what,
30% tariffs on whoever, right? So and even with the India thing, like somebody told me about this
yesterday, they're like, oh, StockGag, well, where about India? He put like 30% tariffs on India.
Did anyone see the headline right after that? Witkoff and his team are going to India on August
25th. So it's like, does anyone really want these to stay in place? I don't think so.
Right? And India is a very, as I mentioned, proud and neutral party.
They don't like typically bend the knee. But even they're like, OK, dude, come on, let's talk.
Right. So no one wants this. And like, think about what Trump said to China during the tariff
stuff. Right. Like he made some pretty aggressive and like, you know hostile in a way comments right but china still
said yeah we have to talk we still have to talk like in spite of all the back and forth and the
the the you know he said she said and the name calling and the press you put all that aside
like china literally said okay OK, let's meet.
You know, and the U.S. was like, yeah, we need to meet.
And they're taking it clearly pretty seriously because they've been meeting for months and months and months.
And so, yeah, everyone knows, like everyone with a brain knows what's going on here.
You cannot overturn global trade in a year.
So what are we doing? Like, what are we doing?
Make a plan or like stop dropping tariff headlines every week. It's just annoying. I don't even care at this point. I'm just like, dude, do them or don't do them. But
don't do this like, who knows who's exempt? Maybe you're exempt. Maybe you're not exempt.
Maybe you'll be exempt in August, but you won't be exempt in December of this year. Like I just,
that's just so dumb. So yeah, I just think the whole thing on tariff side is a mess. I still
think that's the biggest risk to the market.
And I think if we do see a slowdown in the labor market, I think it's going to be a consequence of that.
Not a separate issue from that.
I think it's going to be a consequence of that.
So, we'll see.
As I always say, we will see.
You know, we can talk and speculate on a lot of stuff here and say what might happen, which is what we kind of do on this show.
But no one knows,
you know, the economy could hum right along at the end of the year, maybe we get a rate cut
that fixes all our problems. I don't think 25 base points of rate cuts will fix problems. But
maybe Trump doesn't really want to do this anyway, when it comes to the tariffs. And it's starting to
seem that way with all these exceptions. But I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch because
I don't know. There could be another curveball coming. So pay attention to global trade. I think
that's above all, if you're going to pay attention to anything on the macro, pay attention to how
global trade unfolds at the end of the year. I think outside of that, the macro is largely
irrelevant in my view, unless there's a big surprise on inflation or on labor. But again, I think that'll be a consequence of the tariff stuff in the first place.
So, yeah, that's pretty much it for me today.
We want more. We want more.
There's a lot of good lesson on...
Pete Bannon is leaving Tesla after a wide exodus from the Dojo team.
That's what Bloomberg is saying.
Elon Musk has directed Dojo to be wound down and their remaining staff reassigned to other compute.
Focus now, NVIDIA AMD compute and Samsung for chips.
Elon Musk and Tesla reportedly shutting down Dojo.
What was Dojo's supercomputer or something?
No, it was their attempt to
make chips. If StockTalk
can correct me, it's the NVIDIA replacement
that these companies are trying to make.
Shutting down.
Sorry, I was just reading about Kratos
earnings.
Oh, somebody said something with Andrel?
Did you hear what I said there about Tesla, though?
Tesla is shutting down Dojo,
and remaining staff
will be reassigned to other compute data center silicon efforts.
It will now focus on NVIDIA and AMD for compute and Samsung for chips.
Wow.
Interesting.
It was also interesting watching Elon get after it today.
Was it Satya that went back and forth?
I don't know.
Did Satya answer?
I don't know if he answered.
Yeah, I saw him comment on Satya's post.
I don't know if Satya came back.
I was looking to see.
He also said that, what did he say, that Grok 4 is already better than GPT-5 and that they would have grok 5 by the end of the
year okay this is one of those stories i would like to see elon confirm this disband's team
he's you probably will comment on this it is supercomputer developed by tesla to train neural net models.
Interesting.
I'm going to say he's reportedly shutting down its Dojo efforts.
By the way, GTA News,
correction, they had released the date prior.
So that was not new news.
I apologize.
Was it the same date?
It was the same date. I saw somewhat, okay somewhat okay i'm not gonna get too deep into it but someone might have i guess seen my post and then i deleted
the post and then they went for a little uh a correction on theirs not know if the date was
real but the date is real may 26th 2026 um i put it i didn't make a correction but i should probably
delete it then no you can you just edit it now at this point so or you can delete it but it is not new news yeah
that was my mistake my bad so it was crossing the wires the date and i don't know why i just
didn't double check uh if it was already. Satya did respond, by the way.
What do you say?
What do you say?
An hour ago, he said,
people have been trying for 50 years and that's the fun of it.
Each day you learn something new
and innovate, partner, and compete.
Excited for Grok 4 on Azure
and looking forward to Grok 5.
I like the first part.
He should have just said,
shut up, Elon.
Nah, he should have just said people have been trying for 50 years. What if have just said, shut up, Elon. No, he should have just said people have been trying for 50 years.
What if Saio said, shut up, Dan, back to Elon?
That would be a good moment.
That would be a good moment.
But, yeah, I like the first part.
Open AI is going to eat Microsoft alive.
DocTalk, do you agree with that?
What did you say? Is Open AI going to eat Microsoft alive. Do you agree with that? What did you say?
Is OpenAI going to eat
Microsoft alive? Is Sam Altman the next
Microsoft CEO? Is Greg Brockman
the next board
member or something like that?
I think he's just mad about the fact that...
Oh, he's definitely mad. Did you see how much he was tweeting during the event?
Yeah, he was pissed off.
Because he doesn't want to see... Obviously, he wants
Grok to be used more broadly.
I mean, I think it's I think he's mad because he founded OpenAI, to be honest,
that it's worth 500 billion now and that he'd be a trillionaire if he stayed in it.
I think that's why he's mad, to be honest.
And I like Elon, you know, you guys know that I defend Elon.
But yeah, that's I think it's that simple.
He's just like, fuck, i could have had an extra 500 billion and could have been in control of the ai
industry and the space industry and the ev industry all at once yeah he doesn't i don't think he cares
about the money for sure more about the power yeah it's not about the money it's about the
it's about the control right the industry control like he likes he likes controlling the industries
that he innovates in he did that with ev EVs. He's done that with the space industry. And so, you know, he probably feels like he has a little bit of a lack of
control right now over AI because XAI is great and they're moving quickly. They're probably the
fastest moving team. They're certainly the leanest team in all of AI. I think XAI is very impressive.
I'm not taking anything away from them, but obviously open AI, you you know at a 500 billion valuation now is a different behemoth in
terms of its popularity so yeah and they're deeply embedded now with all the enterprise guys right
they're deeply embedded with microsoft and google now so yeah open ai wears the ai crown currently
for sure it's i don't think anyone can take that away from them i mean outside of nvidia i guess
if you look at the hardware side but on the software side they're wearing the crown for
now and you know if if meta gets what they want with their new super intelligence team maybe
they'll overtake them but google's new products have been phenomenal too like i don't know if
anyone's seen genie but google's doing a great job too especially with video generation incredible
i don't know if anyone's seen the genie world creation, but it's wild. It is so wild.
Google has AI?
Yeah, they do.
They're not good at marketing it, which is another reason why I get so annoyed by them.
Because they have a great AI team.
They just suck at marketing it.
Damn, so Apple really is the only one.
You know, there is a question on how much OpenAI...
How long can they do this without this cash pile
they need money quick
as talent is getting more expensive
but they keep raising
and the valuation keeps going up
it's like what 500 billion now
I just
I don't know
I don't know I feel like you need some of these
giant cash piles that are a little bit that you don't have to always go and raise from it, like the Metas, the Googles of the world.
Maybe Apple makes a big open AI acquisition in a pullback, in a recession. Maybe they're thinking the long term here. I'm definitely giving them too much credit. I think that there's something about these cash piles that Meta and Google have and these large companies. Truthfully,
we've been talking about
RSP on this one, and my thought a little earlier
was like, alright, I've been buying this thing called QTop,
which is kind of the other way. It's like
concentrating at the largest names.
I think that will continue to outperform the
S&P 500.
I think you need money to compete in this next race.
Alright, I gotta go to the gym, but good spaces.
What did you eat before?
What did you eat during this as your pre-spaces?
I've been doing a standard pre-workout snack lately,
which is just two Eggo waffles.
Pretty good.
Pretty good.
I love that.
I think you said two Eggo waffles. And then you go Lego my Eggo. Yeah, 180 calories, good amount of carbs.
You can even put some real maple syrup on it
if you want a little bit of a sugar boost for the workout.
It's pretty good.
Pretty good pre-workout.
Let's do that.
I used to eat the little cookie thing on my way into the gym.
It had like 50 grams of protein or something in it.
Oh, there's like Larry's ones or something?
I can't remember the brand name,
but it was in every gym everywhere.
Every what?
I was going to say they have 46 ingredients, but I don't think Eggo waffles exactly have
five ingredients or anything.
So I can't eat.
I just want to know if Stock Talk's playing some pickup at the 24.
I drink Fairlife Core Power Shakes, the 42 gram ones.
So I can't even say that I'm like trying to be.
Fairlife is just so good.
Honestly, I don't know what they do
dude they're they're i can't even like understand how good their 42 gram shakes tastes like 42
grams of protein 230 calories and you just drink like i i mean you know just their chocomuk is
awesome yeah but i mean that's high protein i don't drink their regular milk i drink their
protein stuff but yeah i mean yeah it's great fair life's great i like
fair life not not an ad honestly sponsor us i would i would be so down all the microplastics
haters are gonna kill me in the comments so it's fine i also low-key i want one of these like eight
sleep or one of these sleep sponsors all right give me like give me one of those subscriptions
or something boom um you know what'll help with
your sleep evan start working out yeah well start working out what does that mean i mean i know
you're not working out it's not an insult i'm just saying you know i'm not working out no i'm not i'm
not that is a fair point get in the gym four times a week dude you'll sleep like a baby take magnesium
at night like go in there get some, get some work in, get tired.
It's a good thing to do after the market because your brain's all distracted during the market.
Go get some reps in.
Go down to the 24th.
I'm going to go hit the gym right now.
You'll thank me for it in six months, dude.
If you do it consistently for six months, you'll feel like a whole new person.
X. At least you can pick up basketball, too. Are you there? If you do it consistently for six months, you'll feel like a whole new person. Facts.
At least you can pick up basketball, too,
while you're there.
Yep.
Get it in.
It's the easiest cardio to do.
All right, boys.
Good spaces, squad.
Appreciate everyone.
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