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LIVE MARKET TALK
Recorded: Nov. 22, 2023 Duration: 1:47:40Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, Paul. How's it going?
Good morning, Wolf. It's going well. How about you?
Good. What are you looking at today in the market?
I'm good. Well, I'm scratching my head figuring, boy, they had fun in the overnight session.
I'm wondering if they took our bid away or not.
I've been really hesitant to put any shorts in on this unless I see a major level break,
but just kind of watching to see if we're going to continue this bid up or how the opening is going to react.
Do you look at any specific news recently you think is going to move markets outside of, I guess, NVIDIA earnings?
You know, I'll watch the news as it gets released and, you know, see the craziness in the candles as that goes on.
But I think most of what I take away from it is, you know, what, you know, in the NVIDIA one,
it popped down to, you know, the 43, 45, 35, 45, 37 level, which I kind of have had my eye on.
And, you know, it tested that level, I think, for, you know, the third or fourth time and then kind of shot back up.
So I found that pretty interesting.
But other than that, I don't really pay attention to the news releases other than, okay, what levels are they reaching for
or how are they reacting to the existing levels on my chart?
And, you know, I'm mostly watching ES.
Sounds good.
I see Alex in the crowd.
Let me get you up here, Alex.
Paul, do you kind of chart out ES and NQ?
Is that something that you're actively doing?
What's your trading style with them?
Well, you know, I'm still – I'll watch NQ on the side.
I mostly follow ES.
I'm a pretty strong believer that ES is leading the market, even though some days lately it seems like NQ is taking the charge and moving up quickly.
I'm kind of sticking more with the slowpoke ES moves.
Can't really keep up with NQ right now.
My style is more, I would say, level to level.
Really, that's kind of what I've transitioned to these past few months, playing it safe.
You know, there are some days where I can leave a runner, and that gets me quite a few more points up to further levels.
But, you know, take, for instance, yesterday after New York opening, you know, we kind of shot back up and then bounced around for, you know, hours and hours.
And that was a day that you could easily get chopped up.
But I think, you know, playing level to level, you've got your one or two moves, and you recognize that, okay, I'm just going to sit on my hands and see what this market's going to do.
Sounds good.
Yellowbird, good morning.
What are you watching today?
Good morning.
Happy Thanksgiving to you all.
I am just watching NQ.
Today, I'm going to make a few trades and then roll out and start Thanksgiving weekend.
Overnight, we're in this nice, solid uptrend, looking to see if we respect that on the open or break it and then move lower.
Just going to be very reactionary today with the low liquidity.
Size down.
Take it nice and slow and easy and protect the capital.
So, perfect.
Hopefully, you guys still have me loud and clear here.
I just was switching over from Wi-Fi.
But I got the end of what you were saying there in the beginning as well.
Okay.
Evan, I know we had NVIDIA.
Care to walk us through any other major news we should be paying attention to here?
Nothing, really.
Initial jobless claims came in a day early, came in below expectations.
Average mortgage in the U.S. is at 7.41%, down from 7.61% last week.
Sam Altman is returning to OpenAI as the CEO.
That was announced this morning as well.
And the rest was all NVIDIA earnings.
Very nice.
Good morning, Exclusive.
What's going on?
Hey, good morning.
Good morning.
Happy holidays, everyone that celebrates.
It's an interesting week, obviously, you know, especially with a shortened week, a holiday week, and in general, a lethargic week for the market.
It's kind of like the cool-off before a rally in either direction.
You see, like, a pretty good spike coming into the week, and then it cools off.
So, you know, my thing for the week is really, really cautionary trading.
I alluded to this last week.
But definitely this week was a bit more pronounced as scaling back.
So, for instance, I've only taken – I think I've taken about 14 trades this week, or 16 trades this week so far, excluding SPX.
And that's a really low number for me personally.
But that's just because there's no overly pronounced moves.
There's some quick pops that you can take advantage of.
But in general, as an option trader, you need to be correct sooner than later so that you can get risk-free sooner than later.
On the future side, the NQ has been respecting the technicals really well.
We're actually stuck in between a key inflection point for the NQ.
And I'll share that chart here in a moment.
So the level for upside is going to be 16.076.
And the level downside is going to be 16.047.75.
You can use 16.041 even for confirmation of a short.
But until either one of those levels are breaking and sustained for at least 15 minutes, I wouldn't really consider a hard direction until that sustains.
Because you can get those chop zones that last 15, 30 minutes to an hour or two hours.
And especially on a day like today, I know I'm going to be trading really lightly.
So I would assume that most people are trading lightly.
Individual stock-wise, there's plenty of movers.
There's plenty of relative strength in communications.
The XLC is actually hitting 52-week highs.
And so has tech this week.
So there's plenty of things to trade.
It's just a matter of how quickly do you plan to be in those trades.
I wouldn't recommend swinging anything, especially going into a holiday.
I wouldn't swing anything overnight unless it's 100% covered.
Maybe even 150% covered.
Meaning you're using half of the profit that you made to cover it.
So, yeah, that's my two cents anyways.
Do you see any specific sector rotation or other things that you're paying attention to?
Yeah, I mean, right now, energy is taking the biggest hit.
And, of course, discretionary and consumer samples are going to be right in that wheelhouse over the past week.
So I would look for some rotation into those names potentially.
And where it could come out of is probably healthcare and IT.
You would assume that, you know, some of these sectors that have been oversold over the course of this year,
mainly Q2 and Q3, like utilities and consumer staples, would see a bit of a rotation.
But inherent, you know, lower volume in general makes it a little bit more difficult to predict those types of moves.
But the longer timeframes, you know, three to six months, you can definitely see some rotation into those two sectors individually.
So right now the volume is in IT.
Got it.
Perfect.
Exclusive.
Helping us kick off here this morning.
Good morning, Frank.
What are you watching today?
Good morning.
Well, I think, you know, obviously it's been quite a week.
So I have not traded nearly as much.
Spent a lot of time looking at charts and but not really trading.
I think, like most people, I spent most of my time watching the drama in Microsoft and OpenAI.
So that kept that kept my hands off the buttons, which is probably a good reason to.
But, you know, what a shit show, you know, but like it's like drama.
It's like what this country loves, which is sad that, you know.
But I think that, you know, you don't see Microsoft this morning.
You know, it looks like it's behind.
Oh, now it's it's headed up now.
It's up five.
OK, I didn't see it like take off right away.
So, you know, it looks like tech has a bid beneath it.
And, you know, I think the day is over by 11 o'clock.
So I don't even know if I'll trade today.
So we'll see.
But I agree.
You know, the market still holds firm.
If you look at the last six days, we're in a tight range.
That point checks out.
We have we struggled with 450 for a while.
They're on spy and not too far off from it right now.
Yes, sitting at four, five, six, four point five.
And Q sitting at 16066.5.
Good morning, Kim.
What are we watching today?
Good morning.
I just got up.
So but yeah, just looks like we've got the what I've been watching more often than not
is the small caps and kind of to me, they're testing the weather and they're going back
up again or they're an indicator.
That's what I mean.
And they're going back up again today.
So yeah, watching those and yields keep dropping.
So I agree with Frank.
This is a hard week to trade.
Um, volumes thin.
And so that's what I'm doing.
I haven't really traded because I'm on vacation.
That's a good reason not to trade.
Yeah.
No worries.
Alpha, what's going on?
Welcome back to the panel.
Hey, what's up, buddy?
How are you doing?
Today, I'm watching NVIDIA, basically watching Microsoft.
Um, I got some futures earlier in the morning after job reports at 4560, 4560-ish, sold
some at 66, holding a few runners.
It's going to be a, uh, uh, I'm probably going to be watching NVIDIA for a straight half day
today, uh, and take, uh, and take, uh, take a day off and come back next week.
But most, most of the things I'll be watching is, uh, basically NVIDIA, uh, and Microsoft
and the futures.
That's it.
Got it.
Shark.
Good morning.
How's it going, Mayu?
Hey, happy holidays.
Good morning.
Sharky.
Can you hear me?
Sorry.
Yeah.
Hey, um, yeah.
Happy holidays.
Hope everybody is doing well.
Uh, yeah, you know, uh, it's, you know, the holiday week, so I'm pretty much in the same
boat.
Probably just going to do one trade here and then call it a day.
Um, not really expecting much in the market.
Um, if, as long as we stay over, uh, 4560 on ES, um, well, it looks like we almost hit that
main target that I would be looking for.
It's, again, it's going to be up around in that, um, 4570 area and over 4570 looking for
4580, 4582 would be my next target.
But I don't think that we'll get that far.
Um, we did do a little bit of a peak above that, um, 4566 area, 65 area.
So I am also watching for a potential look above and fail if we can't take out that swing
high.
So it actually, we might be setting up for a nice short here at the open, which I may do.
And like I said, I'm just probably going to take one trade, small size, and then get out
of here.
I mean, I might not even trade, but we'll see.
But those are the main levels I'm watching anyway.
Sounds good.
All right.
We got a minute or two here to the open.
If anybody's already in anything futures wise, feel free to throw it out into the panel
here.
If you're in the audience, appreciate you joining us here today.
If you haven't traded futures before, listen closely.
It's going to be a fun little ride here and hopefully we'll get some movement X.
What are you expecting after that kind of choppy action we got yesterday?
Um, in general, um, so, okay.
So we, we, what, what I want to kind of point out is that we're, we're in the midst of
where institution level money has to make a decision of whether they're going to add
more to their positions and rebalance into, um, the last, basically the last month of the
year after a short week, we have to figure what decisions are going to be made around
the Santa rally.
Um, obviously we've seen a bit of a pop already, but what are they going to do?
Um, you know, after the short week, what are they going to do when it's the last month
and when they're rebalancing for tax loss harvesting, what are they going to do when
they're in, they're balancing these leverage products and these, in these ETFs and these
shorts.
So who's going to cover, who's going to have to cut positions, who's going to take
profit.
There's so many things that can happen over the next two weeks that can cause knee jerk
reactions in the market.
And, um, you know, if you're a futures trader, it's perfect.
If you're an option trader, you can get chopped up just by a theta decay.
So it's really cause for making sure that you're very patient with your entries.
And, uh, we got about 15 seconds to the open, by the way.
Um, so yeah, just be patient.
Don't force the trade.
That's it.
Yeah.
I think that's a great point exclusive where, um, all week I've only been trading futures
and this is a great, you know, week and, uh, time to be using an instrument like that
where it might not be conducive price action to trading options.
So this is definitely, um, futures is a great, uh, tool to have, um, for weeks like this.
Oh yeah.
Yeah.
That's zero theta decay is a game changer.
All right.
So NQ blue past 16 0 7 6.
So I'm adding a few longs here.
Nice.
All right.
Let's see if we can get this move on.
It's 14, 15, 15 and a half points to the trim.
Ooh.
Ooh.
Okay.
I did not expect this.
Look at you being all decisive.
I like it.
Ooh.
That keyboard's a little.
Oh, thank you guys.
Oh, let me back up.
What's up, man?
It's 16 0 97.
Holy cow.
We are just humping.
Yes, sir.
Oh, it's hard for me to find upside targets.
So there's not like a lot of volume over here until you go way far to the left on the charts.
Fun, fun, fun.
Yeah.
Apple rippy out of the gate.
Oh, I like your spy mover.
Big news on oil today.
I mean, not big news.
Big move.
Big move.
Ooh.
Money, money, money.
That's 35 points on NQ.
You can be done for the day if you want.
Gorgeous.
Double scalped on that one.
Mm-hmm.
All right.
Pack it up.
Right.
So what's everyone's favorite dish for Thanksgiving?
Paul, you want to start us off?
Sweet potatoes with the marshmallows melted on top.
Sweet potatoes.
Nice.
So good.
All right.
So careful on NQ.
This is the double top potential.
Wow.
So we either reject heart or break.
We are still pushing.
Good Lord.
Crazy bidding.
All right.
Sellers came in 50 cents below the pivot.
So we'll see what happens.
Either way, it's a 45 point scop if you took the 16076 level break pre-market.
Good Lord.
I guess they did not take early vacation.
Man.
What's up, Sim?
I know, right?
Damn, this volume is a lot better than I expected this morning.
Q up.
Nearly 125 points.
Keep an eye on it.
Apple ripping up, almost up 1% already.
Man, that is an aggressive candle.
Man, that is an aggressive candle.
That's what the opening candles look like the last three days on NQ.
Yesterday, it was this aggressive candle down, day before it looked like this.
I guess what thin volume looks like.
This is what thin volume can look like for sure.
Oh, my goodness.
Nobody to step in and take the other side.
Wow.
Still going, huh?
It kind of is.
I'm looking at mag seven in general.
Everything's rippy.
Oil's starting to bounce.
All right.
Keep an eye on 16.
148.5.
Oh, these extensions.
Oh, geez.
There you go.
Never mind.
We'll just pop 10 points.
I know.
I was looking.
I was like, aye.
456 on five for calls.
But no pullback.
What do I chase?
Do you not?
Tough call.
All right.
I'm on 95% with my position here.
Yeah.
72 points.
That's good enough for me.
Yeah, that's like a crazy start.
Ooh, Netflix.
All right.
Qs are just gone.
What?
What's the all-time high on the Qs, Wolfie?
All-time high?
Yeah.
That's a great question.
I think it's in the 17 or NQ.
Or the Qs?
Either way.
The Qs all-time high is right around 408.64.
Next week.
Waterfield.
Waterfield.
Nice.
Waterfield.
What are you doing, Frank?
I'm putting a little short out here.
First time.
So, in the pre-market, I was looking at the dollar.
That was like a rippy.
Right into some overhead resistance.
So, if the dollar falls, it's been on a pair like the last day and a half.
That would be good.
Like, great.
Like, positive for some of the averages.
Our RTY is still kind of like hovering around Monday's open.
Really hasn't done anything.
So, I guess it's still a catch-up trade, but not where the strength is.
Qs are just absolutely, absolutely great.
Yeah.
Gold's going to be muted with dollar bouncing to me.
But oil pullback on the OPEC Plus news is the most interesting longer term.
But trading-wise, we didn't just jump in, which I did not.
Or swing.
It was a tough chase.
I have 46.27 as the first upside.
But Apple just soaring here.
192.
IWM's starting to move.
I got a long trigger here on RTY or IWM, whichever.
We're almost there.
177.5 is my last target for this remaining 5%.
Speaking of which, I might have mentioned it the past few months.
Abercrombie's pitch.
Another high.
Well, we're coming in step 45.80 or 79.
Holy crap.
Maybe we're going to go to 45.81 on the years, Chase.
Yeah.
Cool.
So that's pretty nuts on the futures right there.
That was 100 points.
Off the open on any view.
Yeah.
97.5 points from the trigger long, precisely.
That's a perverse extension on the spy.
We also feel like we're going to go to the SPX platform here.
Oh, my Netflix is holding beautifully.
We just filled the old gap with SPX.
If you're feeling adventurous, this is kind of a short zone.
Yeah.
Definitely watching ES around this 45.80, 45.85 area.
See how it's going to react.
We're going to react.
We're going to react.
We're going to react.
Paul, anything standing out to you here?
Pretty crazy start off the open.
Yeah, opening candles like this can sure spark some FOMO.
It's hard to be like, oh, I got out too early or I should have got in.
And it's tough.
It doesn't really come back to any area where you feel safe getting in.
So just catching a couple points off that initial open,
it's just I'm sitting on my hands and watching to see what it does
around this 45-80 area.
Yeah, that was just an amazing opening candle.
So just kind of sitting tight and watching for now.
Yeah, just a wild move off the open.
And if anybody wants to play around with these futures with us,
a great way to get started here is on a simulator.
They also allow you to, if you do well, to get a fully funded account.
I'll talk more about it as we get a little bit more into this market.
But if you do want to try out one of these simulators,
if you want to trade along these futures, I mean, trust me,
you don't want to hop in on NQ with real money right now.
These moves are too big.
So just DM me the word simulator, and I'll get it over to you
and kind of explain some of the details in the DMs.
All right, first red candle here?
No, maybe Tesla.
But I think Tesla might bounce.
Exclusive, what are you thinking on NQ?
I posted a chart on the top.
I am starting to build a position short on Korn this morning.
That is ZC.
But it's the eating season.
Yeah, how could you share Korn right ahead of Korn,
right ahead of Thanksgiving?
Tell the news.
All right, watching Tesla bounce here.
Oh, sorry.
Yeah, RTY looks like it's in a nice spot for a bounce.
If it pulls back and retests that opening range print,
I'm going to load it.
I'm already in a small starter.
Got it.
Bye.
It's just extension.
And we're back up.
Oh, and a couple people DMing me about the simulators.
If you want to see the details as well for yourself,
I did go ahead and I pinned it to the top of the space
and I commented underneath the space as well,
just making things a little bit easy for everybody to check it out.
There's several different evaluations in there.
You're going to want to look through and see which one's right for you.
I like the fast track ones, but different ones for different people.
But if you perform well on those, again,
that's a great way to only put up like 30,
40 bucks and be able to get a fully funded account.
Let's see if we get a red candle here or not on NQ at the moment.
One thing that I'm watching.
Frank, did you take any of those shorts?
I was very quiet because I almost got my head handed to me.
So at 61, 40, I started shorting it, you know,
and then I at 61, 65, 70, I just hit the button.
So I am actually out and long now.
I'm long a couple.
But yeah, that was a little bit hairy.
That's why I was so quiet.
I love that.
You know, I just thought it went too far, but like, I was patient.
I was like, wow, this is unbelievable.
You're not going to be able to fight this.
But now I felt like it just got a little bit too far.
So now we'll see what it's made of in the next 15 minutes.
But we could just, you know, go sideways here for the rest of the day.
Up and sideways.
I wouldn't be surprised.
No, the move was in, you know, the first 20, half hour of the day.
Day possible.
Day possible.
I'm going to be back to 490.
Come on, Netflix.
Yellowbird, you been in anything else?
No, not yet this morning.
That, I mean, it took off like a rocket.
And I absolutely did not want to start chasing.
Looking at it now, I'm a little weary of it with the lack of liquidity.
And it being the day before Thanksgiving, I feel like they just made their move.
And it's going to be over the rest of the day.
All right, I might try the short.
Two-point risk about.
Evan, anything else been standing up to you?
There is a crazy thunderstorm going on over here.
So I'm pretty focused on that right now.
Nothing really in the market, though, if I'm being real.
Just a lot of 52-week highs.
Not on NVIDIA.
Close.
Get that tweet up in a second.
Tesla down.
NVIDIA down.
Rest up.
Interesting morning.
A lot of analyst price target increases for NVIDIA as well.
And we have a newsletter coming out, which Wolf needs to keep looking at.
How many notes is going on in 15 minutes?
It's pretty good.
It's pretty good.
I've been finalizing.
I'm only going to last second.
All right, I am short at 45, 77, 75.
I tested a short here on NQ.
Seems to be working all right.
Now is the best time to call.
It's never going to be here.
Take advantage of the special TV offer today.
Maybe a little bit more than all right.
Yeah.
Took a little profit.
Nice.
Yeah, I just, I got a take profit alert.
So, like, 10 minutes ago, 5, 10 minutes ago.
So, I've just been waiting for it to kind of roll over a little bit here.
I still like it for downside, though.
I just might want to get a better re-entry if we come back up to 16, 140 on Qs.
Sitting here at 16, 128.
Happy early holidays again to everybody in here.
We appreciate you spending your day before Thanksgiving with us.
In spaces, and especially if you're an audience member that's checking out the world of futures.
Hope that you are learning something and enjoying.
There's so much volatility to be had here, but we do not have to worry about theta decay, which, especially on a week like this, think about all those option traders.
They're used to trading options on Wednesday and having all of Thursday and all of Friday.
And today, they're getting killed on theta because you have no Thursday and you have half of Friday.
So, just keep that in mind.
You know, if you're trading futures, or even if you're on a simulator trading futures, you'll kind of see that difference with us here.
All right, we're coming back up.
We're at 16, 1, 3, 2, 3, 3.
Let's get back to 16, 140.
Oh, come on.
Come on.
What's up, Alpha?
Did you take anything, or you said you were going to chill for most of the day?
I took my profits at 43.79.
I'm just waiting now.
I'm going to pull back over here.
You can get a pullback at 43, 45.71 on ES.
Holding strong, so.
We do have Michigan Consumer Settlement.
I did short NVIDIA for 500 couldn't hold, shorter than NVIDIA.
You shorted NVIDIA?
Yes, sir.
Nice.
Yeah.
I went to was a very big cycle.
I don't know, at 499.27.
Got rejected, shorted it.
Paul, what's looking good to you?
Paul, what's your style for trading again?
I think I asked you when you were just first in here, but maybe you can get a little bit more insight here.
Yeah, I think the last few months, I've found some success with just level-to-level trading.
I've been switching back and forth between ES and MES.
MES allows me a little bit more freedom to load up on those micros and take out more and really stretch out and leave some runners going.
And it allows me the ability to limit my risk as well on some days where I'm just not quite feeling it.
But I have some faith in those levels.
It gives me a little bit more freedom that way.
So it's not a style that I've been working with forever, but I would say lately I've definitely been having some success with just level-to-level trading, looking at night, researching the markets, seeing what strong levels have been tested and tried out, and marking those on my chart.
And I mostly trade ES.
And then I've got to ask, for a lot of people, the most common question I get is what type of evaluation is a good one for people to start with?
Let's say they're just like beginner to futures.
They've just traded options and stuff like that.
Is there a specific eval you point people towards?
Well, there's not one specific eval we point people to.
I mean, I think one of our main benefits is we've got five different evaluations, so we kind of spread the depth.
It's really – we'd encourage traders to really look at and read about each evaluation and see what type of trader they are, right?
I think one of our more popular ones right now is diamond hands because there are some people who they've been wanting to hold through this market.
Some of these crazy runs, they want to hold through a closing and hold through the weekend.
Wow, yeah, we are dropping.
I guess that ES found some rejection at that 45-80 level and it's coming back down.
Woof.
Wow.
Yeah, that 10 o'clock news hasn't even come out, so.
Yeah, I think I would just encourage people to go to EliteTraderFunding.com and check out all of our offerings that we have.
And really, really spend some time reading about them and ask yourself, well, what kind of trader are you?
Would you be better in a fast track?
Because you can meet that profit target quickly and you don't need to spend the next 30 days trying out your different evaluation and working towards getting that funded account.
You are quicker and you can jump right in and you're ready to go.
So, it's one of our strong suits is definitely the different choices that we have for traders.
I love it.
I'm sad.
I caught two pieces on this way down on this short and then I missed that chunky move right there.
But I just hopped in on it.
Ooh, let's go.
Let's go.
Let's go.
Oh, beautiful.
Let's go.
Let's.
All right.
That was nice.
All right.
Oh, happy Thanksgiving.
Sometimes I can just stay in.
I scalped three times on that one five-minute candle.
Oh, my God.
Dude.
As I said, in video, I was watching, I'm like, oh, don't touch between, like, 506 and 495 and 493 hit.
And I'm like, ooh, it's a short.
Damn.
Did not move that side.
Oh, my God.
Cover him more.
Oh, my gosh.
That was, this is amazing.
Hey, Wolf, I have to go help the father-in-law cut up this deer for tomorrow.
Oh, boy.
Y'all have a good Thanksgiving.
Did you say deer?
You said deer.
Send me some, Tennyson.
Y'all have a good Thanksgiving.
A happy holiday.
Spend time with the family.
And just have a good one.
Appreciate you.
Enjoy.
Have some fun with that venison.
Oh, it's always good.
You know, one thing that I found strange in Mata, they, I've seen multiple restaurants selling horse meat.
Yeah, that's, it's not okay, but it's all right.
Don't, don't, don't develop an affinity for it, Evan.
We'll not be trying it.
Don't worry.
Big yikes.
What's up, Sim?
Are you, did you get in on that downside?
Simmy, Simmy, Simmy.
What's up, Max?
Simmy, Sim, Sim, Sim?
Yeah, I just.
Oh, no, I was in stretching.
I took some SPX clips this morning.
You had to, you had to react quickly on that.
I, I had covered my short from the morning.
And, and started into a long.
And then, when it really started, like, around 20.
Before it went through 1601, I flipped.
But it was, yeah.
It was brutal.
So, I'm green, but not big.
That was, uh, Sharky, nice short, buddy.
Thanks, brother.
But, like, I looked up and NVIDIA was down.
Yeah, that NVIDIA move happened so fast, frankly.
No, seriously, you blinked your eyes.
I didn't even have time to, like, say anything.
Right.
I'm, like, yelling in our server.
It's like, okay, 480, 480.
And then, poof.
She gone.
Yeah, that was, this is what I'm talking about.
This is what, this is the type of movement that we need.
So, yeah.
So, you can't really, you know, I think I'm done.
I'm not buying it here, either.
No, I'd do, like, 460 backcats for a potential long.
I have pre-market lows.
Yeah, let's do, that's a good call, Sharky.
Let me drop a bid.
Pre-market lows, so that 4-5.
All right, NQ's below the short trigger now.
Yeah.
After we sold it.
I think we sold the top to the penny.
On the long.
Could be wrong.
No, you basically did.
That was awesome.
I missed that short.
I was focused on SPX, and it cost me.
Yeah.
So, this is low volume.
I'm just kidding.
What's happening?
But, yeah.
Dude, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and.
AMD?
Yeah, and Tesla all got hit simultaneously.
I know.
I actually took a long on Tesla, because I was, like, looking at this 50-day, and it bouncing.
I'm like, okay, there's a little gap down there, but nope, she didn't hold.
I'm still watching.
I'm sorry.
No, it's futures, but equity guy.
Yeah, Tesla had some negative news today.
Our bulls are attempting to defend 16-0-41 on the NASDAQ, which is a short trigger for me, so.
Yeah.
I'm going to wait to see if we close below that.
I'm on the exact same page.
So, this is the opening print right here.
Back to it.
Back to it.
Yes, sir.
That's 60 catching a bid with about four points from there.
Frank, I think we're getting some feedback to your mic.
Is that better?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You're good.
Who was trading coin again?
Someone was doing coin puts?
I'm watching coin longs.
I thought they said corn.
Oh, okay.
Someone did say corn.
They said corn.
Okay, my brain was just going to coin base.
Yeah.
What does it mean?
Let's see how this candle closes right here.
Could be a potential short opportunity.
Rejected off of that previous upside level, 16.076, and wiped off.
Let's see what happens.
I'm reluctant to get into anything.
I've still got some SPX puts that I'm holding risk-free, but I'm done with NQV.
Michigan Consumer Sediment just came out.
Negative?
I didn't see the number.
I don't.
What is it?
One year is 4.5, above expectations of 4.4.
Yeah, positive.
Negative.
61.3 on vinyl.
On 65.
No, 56.8.
Wednesday, November 22nd.
The November final.
University of Michigan expectations final actual is 56.8.
The previous was 56.9.
Jeez.
Coming into equal load here.
Wait.
It's a 39-point rejection on NQ from that short.
Maybe I should have taken that.
Yeah, sorry.
I wasn't looking at expectations.
I was looking at the actual.
Here we go.
More downside.
Watch this.
Could be a double bottom here.
We're pretty much at equal lows.
If we get under 45, 56, we could see more selling come in.
Just riding runners with a trailing stop.
What you were reading was current conditions.
I'm sorry.
I'm out of my long.
Or my short.
Excuse me.
That was great trade.
That was awesome.
All right, so the bulls came in right above 16.0, 16.5.
But bears are coming back in at 16.0, 41.
That's crazy watching these pre-market levels react.
Yep.
Either way, that's a 59-point move.
If you take the short.
Nothing compared to Sharky short, but hey.
We'll take what we get, right?
SPX, I'm looking for 45, 44.
Yeah, I think I have an extension trigger here.
I think that's a good one.
Yep.
Happy Thanksgiving, Rex.
It's going too soon on that.
You don't pull up.
Look, look, look, look, look, look.
Thank you very much.
It's really a good one.
It's a good one.
Thank you, and then it's a good one.
Please take falling in the federal reserve.
All of them are very good.
All of them are very good.
All of them are very good.
All of them are very good.
You should be out.
The dollar is frightening on the federal reserve.
Well, I'll be back above 4-4.
So, what are we going to do with this thing?
Okay, what else are we looking at?
Kind of just waiting right now.
I mean, Tesla.
I mean, not Tesla.
NVIDIA is rejecting.
It looks like it can get all extension.
Oh, God.
NVIDIA.
SPX is almost there, and Q is back pretty close to that 1650 level.
My goal was to be done trading by 11 today.
Might be done before 1030.
Always the goal.
Definitely the goal.
Man, NVIDIA, what a crap.
I mean, that's just like the epitome of getting option traders to liquidate.
Like everyone, well, not everyone, but there was so many bearish people, and they all sold their puts at the open.
And then it did.
I didn't even take it, but man, that's crazy.
This is actually a technical support.
NVIDIA is a paying pat.
I mean, that's exactly what NVIDIA did last quarter, just saying.
Right.
Yeah, I love these premiums to get burned and then take a trade after that.
Dude, the IV was like trailing 95% yesterday.
I was like, okay.
That was like trading Tesla and, you know, Amazon pre-split.
That was just, I love that.
But taking it into earnings, I did not want to.
That's a pure gamble.
It was like 99% you're going to lose.
Yeah, and even like, even for NVIDIA in general, like that kind of implied move seemed out of the ordinary.
And even though they beat by, what was it, 2 billion and change?
It's still just, that's, no mercy.
The implied move this quarter was actually less than last quarter, but like, I actually, I was so close to throwing out a neutral trade.
I was like, if it was more than last quarter, then I would have, I would have taken that, but no dice.
So Mercado Libre, for those who are listening from the July spaces, when we were talking about a pre-earnings for August, we're at the very top of that channel.
So we could double top here.
1550, sorry, someone's DMing me about it.
That's the only reason I'm talking about it.
1550 upside, 1495 downside.
So we're smack dab in the middle.
I'll post a chart for you in a minute.
Just give me a second.
Good area to scale out of SPX puts if you took those with me.
Didn't really give a strike.
It was just puts in general, paid.
I mean, yeah, very nice, very nice.
Appreciate in the combo, seeing where we can get this market going.
We do seem to be trickling a little bit lower at this point.
Let's see if we get any other signals.
So I got those DMs out to everyone that reached out to me.
Just for clarification, it's pretty straightforward.
With futures, the main difference is you're still getting the volatility, but you're not having theta decay or the IV crush.
So sometimes when you trade options, you'll be like, hey, the stock's going to go up.
Yeah.
What's up, paper?
No, it's futures are linear payout versus options being a convex payout also, right?
So you don't have the volatility, if that makes sense, in futures that you do in options in terms of convexity.
But for a lot of people, if you're trading raw price action, it's by far the better bet, especially in a smaller moving market, like where you're just getting chopped up on just IV and what have you.
Like coming back in on options, you don't get any of that.
You can make like 10x on futures that you can on options inside those smaller moves, for sure.
If that makes sense.
But the bigger moves, I don't know.
Options probably still still the way.
It's just knowing when.
So, yeah, I think paper gave a pretty good explanation.
But at the same time, there is certainly risk as it comes with all trading and investing.
So a lot of the way that even most of the professional traders that I've seen do it is that work with a prop firm.
So essentially, you go in, you purchase for 30, 40, 50 bucks in evaluation.
It gives you a funded account that's on a simulator trading real time.
Same as other people, you know, fills and everything along those lines.
And then if you perform well on that, you can get a fully funded account and then keep 80, 90 percent plus of those profits.
So even people in this space, I know, that are up here on the panel, this is how a lot of them have gone through the process of actually getting involved.
And it just can save you, you know, from losing thousands of dollars and ever really having to put up that much money.
So it looks like we're getting a little bit of a bounce here.
If you are interested, again, I did pin a link to the top of the space.
It's got all the details on there.
There is a 30 percent discount built in if you use that link I put up once you get to the checkout page.
So it just makes it a little easier to stomach.
And then if you can't find it, just DM me the word simulator and I'll get it over to you.
A few of you already have and I've gotten it to you.
So just a couple of pieces for y'all.
OK, keeping our eye on the ball right here.
We are getting a little bit of a pop.
We're trying to hold this 16.015 level on NQ at the moment.
I really looked at too much.
Yes, this morning doesn't seem to be too positive either.
Is anybody else trading?
Yes.
Kim.
No worries.
What's up, Frank?
So if we get back up to that EMA 16.41, 42, I'll probably put a small short on.
But other than that, I'm going to stay away.
But, you know, it's trading with, we're trading, it's basically we're trading NVIDIA.
You know what I mean?
Yeah, I just went long NVIDIA.
So NVIDIA goes, so does the futures.
If everything else stays, you know, level.
You know, all the metas made its move, Microsoft, we'll see.
Okay.
Okay.
So for how long, how much visibility do you have in some of these type of numbers and the type of growth?
Yeah, so the future of visibility in the next couple of quarters, I think they basically have the demand there of real redemption beyond that.
I think to some extent, it's what the team is, which will maybe be part-time to go, depending on whether or not they are able to successfully change the job.
See, there's a pop.
Who was trading corn before?
Who was that again?
Somebody was.
I'm not sure.
X, what are you watching right now?
You know, right now I'm looking at the energy sector.
We saw, you know, the rotation possibility, pre-market, and lo and behold, energy is leading from the open over every sector.
So I am kind of interested in some of the travel and leisure names.
They're getting a little bit of a bit here.
So I'm kind of focusing on them a little bit, but not too much, as well as a few healthcare names like Humana with relative strength.
So I'm in Ricardo Libre, of course.
It's a really mixed day.
Like, you have UNH up, then you have Lily down, then you have...
On this news from yesterday, I think it was.
Oh, dude, the...
I remember after the earnings, the bearish sentiment was ridiculous.
It was.
I was like...
I posted many times about it, and I was like, okay.
I'm looking at the fundamentals, though.
And, I mean, obviously the technicals were in favor of upside, but the fundamentals.
You know, people just need to look into what the reports actually are versus what the sentiment is.
It's basically the blueprint of the move before it happens.
I missed that pop today, though.
That was a nice downtrend break.
My RH positions up about 16.5% now, even from a late ad.
Keeps going up.
I'll feel better over 283.
Yeah.
Speaking of RH, Netflix is almost at 485.
Yes, sir.
Should be 500 before Christmas.
Yeah, I'm trying to...
I'm trying to sell my leaf before that happens.
What's the connection between RH and Netflix?
Oh, it's tickers that X and I trade together.
Gotcha.
That's the connection right there.
We both love RH because it makes these massive moves.
I'm the equity guy on it, but X seems to nail some, like, options.
Netflix.
Yeah, we both were, like, screaming that one when it started to go initially.
And I'm still, I'm still, Wolf, I'm still in my delta, but I need to roll up here.
Maybe up and out.
Speaking of delta, what's the Jets doing?
No, Bears defended that double top, of course.
It's looking a little inverse, head and shoulder, Eon Jets, ETF.
The 1693 neckline is where it's trading to the penny, actually.
That would give it the pop to 1864 we need.
If I can break.
All right, anyways, I'm going to get back to futures.
Sorry, guys.
Yeah.
All right, so we are still stuck in between 16.016.5 and 16.041 on NQQ.
Very nice, very nice.
Feel free to pop in, anybody, if you are looking at something specific here.
We're not about to drop.
Looks like we're going lower.
Looks like we're trying, but...
Yeah, let's see if we can actually accept under 45, 55.
You have the same level, 45, 55.
We drop, we'll probably go to 45, 45.
Yeah, I have POC right at 45, 50, which could be the target there.
I just bought that pulse.
I just bought it at 16.08.
Look at NVIDIA, the thing is getting wrecked.
All right, this is where I went long.
I mean, 4.75 is like my hard, hard stop, but kind of pacing.
It would just be really like an IV play, but I'm probably going to stop still.
Did you mean 28, Frank?
16.08.
Yeah, it just popped down there.
I had some resting orders down there figuring they'd try to take it one more time.
Nice entry, man.
I mean, that's 20 points already.
My size, like I said, it's actually smaller than yesterday, which has kept me out of trouble this morning.
Oh, yeah, it hit 16.05, dude.
I didn't even think it went that low.
Holy crap, what an entry, dude.
Well, I had a resting order.
I've finally gotten the hang of this a little bit.
20 years.
I just sold half, raised my stop on the bounce.
We're going to do another 10 minutes here on the futures trading side of things,
but this has definitely been a fun one because we're still getting a little bit of movement here.
Paper, you said you went long?
Yeah.
I went long futures at 16, NQ at 16.05.
I'm at a half and got runners and raised my stop.
Long loss on the ES, 45-57.
We have like a green zone where it's a bi-zone for me at 45, 55, 57.
So, I know we're coming into the last 10-ish minutes here, Paul.
I wanted to pull you back in once more.
Looks like we are trending a little bit up.
Nice job.
Anything else you want to put on people's radar if they're trying out futures for the first time,
if they're trying out an eval for the first time, just like general advice and pieces?
Well, I think I've asked people just to kind of look at your trading style and see where do you operate the best?
Where do you find some success in the trading that you do?
When you go through the different evaluations, is there one that would kind of work best with your style?
Well, and really take the time to go through and read about each type of evaluation.
I know sometimes it can become a little confusing and there's this big rush to sort of get in and get that evaluation and get trading.
But we would encourage everyone to take the time and read through all the different types of evaluation
because sometimes some people just quickly get into an evaluation that they find out that doesn't work
or they were thinking it operated in a different way.
And so, again, I would encourage everyone to take the time and look at the offerings that we have.
We have all these different types of evaluations for you and for all the different types of traders out there.
And so, please take your time, read through, because you picked that right evaluation.
You're going to find some success when it works with your style.
Yeah, I think you nailed it.
So, again, take your time with it, everybody.
There's no need to rush this stuff, but there is some really fun perks to being in the futures trading side of things.
So, I absolutely started on a simulator.
And I think I had everybody that DM'd me.
But last call, if you want to try it out, DM me the word simulator, and I'll get that info over to you.
But we'll just keep it futures trading for the rest of this one.
And then we'll get a little chat with Seeking Alpha coming up after.
I'd also encourage everyone to make sure you're following us on Twitter, or even better yet, join our Discord,
as we may have a few things up our sleeves for these next coming days.
So, keep your ears open.
And I want to thank everyone for coming out and taking part on this Thanksgiving-y spaces
and watching this crazy thin market make some crazy moves.
100%.
Yeah, I appreciate everyone that did come out.
I'm following Elite Trader Funding.
Definitely recommend you guys do the same.
Okay.
Let's see.
Shark, did you get into anything after that short?
I'm all out 50 points, NQ.
Beautiful.
No, I was looking at the long fare at 56, but I really made my bread, so I don't really need to do anything.
Sounds good.
Same here.
I took half my profits over here on ES.
45, 57 to 45, 50, 45, 66.
Beautiful.
Nice work.
Yeah.
I was debating it, but I didn't do it.
I wish I did.
I wish I did.
10 points.
You're just looking interesting.
Great trade, Frank.
Thanks, bud.
I covered that, you know, I was like, when I was short on the top there, I mean, it
seemed like 20 minutes and it was five.
And then as soon as it went, I covered way too soon, way too soon.
And then got long way too soon.
So, you know, but, you know, at least the thing about futures is you got to bag out when you're
wrong quickly.
What's your usual, like, risk, stop, tolerance, Frank, on futures?
Well, this week, you know, I trade a lot of MNQ, so, you know, I'll get up to 200 contracts.
This week, I've kept it down to like 30 at the most.
And so, you know, when you go from that level to this level to 30, like this morning, I don't
like get, it doesn't bother me at all to see myself go red because, you know, you're a little
used to it.
But, you know, I definitely cut my size dramatically, you know, by 80% this week.
And, you know, like today, I have a nice little profit.
Like, it was worth trading this.
And it was exciting.
It was fun.
But, you know, I think that I don't let anything get a go against more than 20 points in NQ.
If it goes 20 points, you're wrong, unless you're scaling into like some kind of, you know,
there's sometimes when I might, I don't really do it in MNQ, but there's sometimes in N2K,
like I might have a position like Kim does, where you're holding a longer term position.
But, you know, that's, that's a lot different than what we saw this morning.
This is just frantic trading.
You know, I actually put up a chart of NVIDIA and was trading it, looking at NVIDIA and looking
at the five minute in the Qs.
And that's how I traded it.
NVIDIA had a five minute hammer on, it looked like it was going to break to a new low.
That's when I bought NASDAQ.
It was, it was going to be a quick out if I was wrong.
And then it created a hammer.
And at the same time, we got a hammer in the, in NQ.
So I grabbed them.
Yeah, these NVIDIA contracts, since I am in options, like this is probably where futures
would be better.
Like I'm, I'm in calls and they're moving so fast.
It's very hard to execute anything.
But just as an example, like the, I have like option calls.
They went from like, they were at like just over two and in about like two minutes flat
to 1.30, now back to 1.70.
And near my entries, I'm like, oh geez, on a very small little wick, because, because
we do have some IV burning off, or heavy IV burning off still.
But I'm still constructive here.
I think we just retraced 618 from the pre-market lows to the opening range, holding 50% retrace
here.
Yeah, nearing that pre-market high.
We'll see.
All right.
Very nice, very nice.
X, anything else you wanted to alert to put on people's radar?
I guess, although right now I'm actually charting Lowe's Corporation, which is not to be confused
with Lowe's, the hardware store.
It's ticker L.
And it's, it's breaking into some all time highs here.
So it's something worth watching.
I don't have a position.
I'm just charting it.
But I actually was monitoring names, breaking 52-week highs today.
So that's one that's cool.
Is that Lowe's Hotels?
What's that?
Is that Lowe's Hotels?
Yeah.
Well, we do property and casualty insurance.
Right.
Every time someone asks about a company, like, what do they do?
Watch us pick for calls, man.
Because I know the Lowe's Hotels brand.
Yeah, there was a...
I'm still going to stick to the 4560s.
Watch your for calls.
I don't think these are short here, by the way.
You know, this is a...
I would not short...
I'm not going to short this.
I mean, I sold my long position, but I'm not going to lay into it here.
But, yeah.
Great trading, as always.
I got a jet, but good to see you guys.
Everyone happy to see you.
I'm in SPX with all of a sudden.
Thanks for something.
Oh, my God.
It gave me a partial fill at 540.
Why does it do that?
It just pops right in.
Fuck.
All right, I'm in full size now at 540.
Finally.
Yeah.
4560 calls?
SPX.
For SPY, you could take the 455 calls.
I always forget to alert SPY, because I just never fuck with it.
You guys kind of get the picture.
All right, y'all.
I am going to roll us into this next one, if anybody else has anything.
Now is a good time to get those commentary in.
10% so far.
But, Paul, let me give you a final comment on this one.
Anything else you wanted to put out there regarding some of the plans and stuff that you guys have?
16%.
Well, I just want to thank you, Wolf, and, you know, thank everyone else for coming out.
Bless.
And hopefully, you know, you're playing safe and taking profit while you can on these thin markets and crazy moves.
And if you partake, I hope everyone has a fantastic Thanksgiving.
Absolutely.
Thanks, Paul.
Okay.
Have a good Thanksgiving, guys.
Have a great Thanksgiving.
And to the audience, stick around.
Happy holidays.
Stick around with us for a little bit here.
We are going to have one more chat coming up with our friends from Seeking Alpha, talking a little bit about really the greatest finance tool on Earth, if we're being quite honest.
So, let's hop right into that.
I believe, Stephen, we have you up here on stage?
You do, indeed.
Thank you very much for having me back.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
First off, thoughts on this market so far today?
You know, my thoughts tend to be a little bit longer term than some of the traders that you had online today.
Interesting that, like, I was at Morgan Stanley for 15 years.
And seriously, when I tune into your channel, I feel like I'm back on the trading floor at Morgan Stanley.
So, it's very invigorating.
But my take is a little bit longer term perspective.
You know, I would be looking out basically over the next year.
As a quant, we try to really focus one day at a time.
And we look at what comes to the top of our screen.
And we look at what's at the bottom of the screen in terms of shorting.
So, we sort of execute along those lines.
I really don't think, you know, too much about timing the market.
So, I know that answer probably doesn't help a lot of your, you know, the people that tune into your channel.
But my longer term perspective right now is I like the market.
I think the last time I was on your call, we were basically in the camp where the market was going to continue to come up from July through the end of October.
Very much, you know, a historical seasonal aspect.
And that indeed played out to T.
Obviously, you know, we're in a period now where we're probably going to continue to rally through the end of the year.
The question is, what do you focus on?
And one of the things that I'm really focused on is a rotation out of the Magnificent Seven.
I do not believe that that performance will be sustainable.
I'm sure a lot of people who tune into this channel do not believe that that performance will be sustainable.
They had a heck of a year.
And really, from my perspective, the reason why those, you know, seven stocks did so well is it was a bit of a reversion to the mean.
From a quant perspective, they got absolutely crushed in 2022.
And then when you came into 2023, it was really more of a defensive mode in the market.
Obviously, if you stripped out those seven stocks, you know, if you looked at 493 stocks, they're barely up on the year for the S&P 500.
So it's really those seven stocks that have led.
And I think it was a combination of the investors being defensive, feeling that was the only place that they could go.
A bit of a reversion to the mean.
But also the third point would truly help those stocks is their involvement in AI.
And as you're, you know, well, where AI was in fire this year.
So it's sort of a combination of those three catalysts really that the stock's outperforming.
And I think going forward, it's, you know, it's going to be rotation.
Not necessarily, you know, people are going to be dumping those stocks.
But you're going to see investors putting more cash.
And you're going to see more breadth and participation across the board.
And that would be in small cap stocks, mid cap stocks, and sort of your normal large cap stocks, not your mega cap or the mega tech or for that matter.
So that's kind of my view.
I would look for the market to do fairly well.
Probably a lot of people share the same view that the Fed, you know, is no longer going to be taking rates up.
And the probability is probably greater that they'll be taking rates down.
Historically, from my experience, being in the business for over 30 years, when you get to that point where the Fed goes for their second to third rate cut, the markets tend to really catch fire.
So I think you're in a fairly good place to start looking at some value caps, some mid cap stocks, some small cap stocks.
And I will say, over the last four weeks, our quant screen, especially the top portion of the screen, has done incredibly well.
Now, part of the quant, there are five core factors.
You have value, growth, profitability, EPS revisions, and momentum.
And we do have two mega tech stocks up there still.
Meta is our number one stock in the screen still that continues to do fairly well.
But over the last four weeks, you know, just slightly outperformed the S&P.
The other mega tech stock is Google, and that has not outperformed the S&P.
Outside of those two stocks, most of the stocks in the top of our quant screen have absolutely been crushing it.
You know, over the course of the month, Albert Carmine Fitch has been like the number two stock.
Gapped it really well.
Even though both companies have given some light guidance, they did very well on both top and bottom line.
You know, something that has done really well that surprised a lot of people and investors this year are homebuilder stocks.
I don't think anyone really would have expected homebuilders to perform particularly well this year.
But, you know, they're right up there behind, like, IT stocks.
And a couple of the stocks that we like in homebuilding are MI Homes and Toll Brothers.
Those stocks have done incredibly well over the course of the last four weeks.
I think we have MI Homes has been up about 37 percent and Toll Brothers was up 23 percent over the last four weeks.
I mentioned Abercrombie, that's been up about 21 percent.
Gap has been up over the last four weeks, 59 percent.
So absolutely crushing it on that side.
And I think one of the individuals who called in before was looking for some names in the travel and leisure space.
We actually like SkyWest.
That stock is up 24 percent of the month and it's trading well today.
So, you know, you're looking for stocks that are doing well right now.
SkyWest is up about 2.65 percent.
That's still a strong buy.
So, you know, I can stop and pause for some questions.
I can take a deeper dive in some of the stocks that I mentioned.
But let me open up the questions.
Yeah, let me hop in here first.
So kind of as we're getting rolling a little bit, I just want to put everyone on the radar.
So pretty exciting that we get to have the team from Seeking Alpha joining us today.
This is a website that myself and Evan both use pretty much every single day.
I don't think I really don't close this tab.
That's how much use there is to it.
So if you're someone that's in the audience, if you're not wanting to really pay for a variety of different services and items like that, that's where Seeking Alpha really comes into play for me.
So, like, I'm not going to go out and pay for a Bloomberg or items like that.
I really just get my news just right through Seeking Alpha, right?
There's a million different news sections in here.
There's trending news.
There's all news.
There's consumer and dividend and earnings.
I can just go in here and just see these write-ups as they come in.
Really nice with the breaking news as well.
So that for me is just a big part of it.
But then outside of that, whenever someone on Spaces mentions a stock, especially if you come into my stock picking sessions on Monday, a lot of times I don't have the details of that stock just top of mind, right?
Or maybe I've never even heard of it.
This allows me to just click in, dive in, and see everything about it.
So one of my favorites recently has been FRO, Frontline PLC.
One of the reasons I like it is all these ratings that it's getting in here.
When you pop in and you, like, if anybody has Seeking Alpha, or if you don't, by the way, you can get a totally free trial.
I went ahead and I just pinned that into the top of the space.
So honestly, grab that so you can follow along with me.
Fun fact as well, because it's Black Friday coming up, if you do grab that free trial and you like it, you can convert over at a 30% discount, I believe.
Yeah, 30% discount, so it's literally going to be like $13 a month or something like that.
I absolutely could not do without this tool.
So highly recommend you check it out, at least for that free trial.
But when you go into here, I can see right off the bat it's profitability, it's growth, it's valuation.
So when I click growth, immediately I'm given, you know, revenue year over year.
And I can see that this thing is, you know, the sector medium went backwards.
It was minus 4%.
This thing was up 112%, right?
When you see numbers like that, the comparison just make a lot of sense.
I can also just go right through any company's financials, right?
Click financials, I get the income statement, the balance sheet, cash flows.
This to me is like a much cheaper version of what a lot of other people out there are selling, and it just has everything in it as well.
So certainly for me, it really stands out for both the news and diving into stocks.
And the last thing that I will point out is a little bit of what Stephen was hitting on there, which is these top stock lists.
So that's where I found it for, you know, it's number 12 right now on this top stock list.
I just did a little bit of like a screener, went through, and I was like, all right, well, I only want things that the quant rating really likes,
that Wall Street really likes, have top valuations, top growth, top profitability.
And I was able to look through, you know, and find some names that really stood out to me.
And, you know, sure enough, this name's up 83% this year, right?
So a lot of those type of things are what's standing out to me here and what I'm watching.
Just wanted to put on everyone's radar.
Stephen, do you got commentary on some of what I shared there?
Yeah, absolutely.
I mean, you know, you picked a nice stock there, the front line.
I'm just looking at it myself right now.
It's actually ranked number three in the industry for oil and gas.
And we show those rankings.
And, of course, they're according to the quant rankings and our scores.
But, you know, we rank close to 5,000 stocks.
And then we break it down by looking at it within the sector or within the industry.
And I'd say, you know, it is just unbelievably cheap.
But it's kind of funny.
Last time I was on, I really don't really pay that much attention to the prices of our product or the discounts.
But I was prompted to look at it this time because I didn't want to be caught flat-footing in.
And I did notice that it is, you know, coming in at a 30% discount, as you mentioned.
And that's actually more of a discount than you get if you went to the Seiki Alpha platform for our BlackBron itself.
So, I think we're definitely giving your listeners a distinct advantage over anybody else who comes in.
And also, people who go through you get a seven-day free trial as well.
And I don't believe we're offering that elsewhere either.
So, you're getting that seven-day free trial and you're getting a discount, you know, coming in through Wolf, which is really nice for your listeners.
But in terms of the stocks and how you'd see it on Seiki Alpha, the one thing I might add is, obviously, I used to use Bloomberg for a long time, FaxFat, Reuters.
And one of the things that I tried to do to make our platform different was, when you use those other platforms, you're getting all the absolute data that you need.
Whether, you know, it's for prices or financial information or ratios, you get that absolute data.
What we try to do at Seiki Alpha is interpret that data for you.
So, when you come to our platform and you're right on the stock page, you immediately get an instant characterization of how the company looks compared to the sector on value, growth, probability.
That's what those academic rates do.
So, when you're looking at frontline and you're looking at the valuation rate of A-, you know that it's really attractively priced in terms of its valuation framework to the peer group with that A- rating.
When you look at the growth of an A+, you know the growth for frontline is superior to the rest of the group.
For profitability, it's an A+.
It's relative to the rest of the sector.
And then all you have to do is click on those links when you're on the stock page, and that will take you to all the underlying metrics, which have grades.
But we show the absolute data, and then we show the, you know, medium for the sector as well.
So, it becomes very intuitive and transparent, and you can see why the profitability rate is an A+, or for ROE, or for return on capital.
So, if you're looking at revenue growth or EPS growth, you see the data point for the company, then you see it right next to the sector.
We also show the historical five-year average.
So, you can see how a company is compared to the sector and its historical average as well.
And this is what I mean when I'm referring to interpreted data and giving people an instant characterization of where it stands versus the sector or where it stands historically.
And that's not something you get on Reuters or Bloomberg or Faxit that's unique to CK Alpha.
And the price, you know, with the discounted, it'd be like $167 for the year.
I'm not sure if anybody here has a Bloomberg, but you're paying over $25,000 a year for a Bloomberg.
For Reuters, it's like above $10,000.
Faxit, it's above $10,000.
And it's almost insane at the price that we deliver this, but we've done a great job with the user experience, and we've added the quant to it.
So, you're getting the quant, you're getting the news, and then you're getting the crowdsource research as well.
So, I don't want to make this to seem like it's an advertisement, but if, you know, you've spoken to the quality of this platform and the ease that it provides and the information that you get for the users,
and there really is nothing out there like that.
So, I'm talking more probably from a standpoint of just like being very proud, having been a creator in much of the site and the quant and the founder aspect of their quant.
So, it's more of a pride than it would be for promotion.
It's just an incredible platform.
Sweet.
Appreciate that rundown.
Evan, what do you like to use it for?
And are there any stocks standing out that you want us to dig into?
Well, I'd love to get your thoughts on Vidya and what it's saying there off of the earnings yesterday.
I know a lot of analysts are coming in, raising price targets.
I saw some pretty decent charts from Seeking Alpha in that post, and I like the earnings transcripts as well.
But the stock is down of almost 5% today.
I would love to get what the platform is saying, what you're thinking about it.
Yes, we've actually had a hold on that.
And a couple months ago, I wrote an article on top AI stocks.
And the deal with NVIDIA didn't make the top of the list.
And the reason why is you're looking at the stock page.
You'll see the valuation grade is an F.
So being an app, it's just about more expensive than anything else you can find.
I think the P.E. on it is about 120 times, and the P.E. for the sector is 25 times.
So it's at a premium of 375% on a P.E.
So the company obviously came in with great results, but then, like a lot of other companies, future guidance wasn't great.
And I think as a CEO, all you have to say is that there might be a slight pullback in guidance,
and it seems like stocks are getting completely hammered whenever a CEO gives guidance that has changed from what it was before.
So I think we're seeing that.
But one of the things I will say, we do have that overall valuation grade, which is an F.
But something to me that sticks out, a ratio that I love, is the P.E.G. ratio.
And we actually have a B grade on the P.E.G. ratio.
And the reason why I love the P.E.G. ratio is it's a combination of valuation and growth pulled together into one metric.
And, as I said, it's a B grade.
The metric itself is 1.2 times versus the sector at 1.8 times.
So this is one of the very few valuation metrics where it looks good, but I tend to really like it.
So long story short, I would probably be taking advantage of any pullback that we see on NVIDIA.
If you were a holder of the stock, I would definitely continue to hold it.
And if you like the company, I would probably take advantage on the weakness.
Yeah, I appreciate the thoughts there.
I'm definitely a fan of the news, as Wolf was talking about.
I'm a big fan of the earnings transcripts, something that I like to look at a lot.
And then also the Catalyst Watch that goes out every Friday gives you what to expect for the week ahead.
I actually tweet it out all the time, and it is a really great resource.
So those are the main three things I use.
There's obviously so, so much more.
I also use the earnings page a lot.
It's where I get a lot of my expectations for and what analysts are expecting.
But of those kind of – I know the quant model takes in, I believe it's five different major categories with a lot of subcategories under them.
Maybe it's four.
Which of those do you think tends to be the most important?
Like when you're seeing how stocks do and looking in the back of it, is there kind of a key of like there's an A in one category,
and that tends to be the one that you see better stocks in, or there's an F in one category where it's worse.
It's actually five, valuation, growth, profitability, momentum, and revisions.
Yeah.
Is there one of them that you kind of see as being a little bit more important than some of the others?
Yeah.
So from a historical perspective, we have a great like 13-year track record.
So what we've done is we've, you know, to identify which metrics we overweight and underweight, and the metrics are not equal weighted.
So that's important to understand.
Where we tend to, for the overall model, what contributes to the sort of the long-term performance overall,
I would say is that it's sort of spread out amongst the five factors.
And it doesn't tend to favor any one factor at a particular time.
So I think that's very good for the long-term results.
But typically, like in the near term, the best factors really tend to come from momentum and EPS revisions.
So where we look at momentum, we look at a 12-month basis, a six-month basis, and a three-month basis.
So even that's spread out a little bit.
Historically, people will look at 12 months, and that has been one of the greatest predictors.
And you can actually, you know, of all the factors you look at, whether it's growth, valuation, profitability, and all the underlying metrics,
you can go back 200 years, and there's empirical data that actually shows momentum is the best factor.
And it's funny.
We constantly get complaints all the time.
And as you know, we have a good track record with our stock picking.
But we constantly get complaints that we're buying stocks or recommending stocks that are at a 52-week high.
And I constantly have to tell people, if you had a basket of stocks that were at a 52-week high,
and a basket of stocks that were at a 52-week low, you would do far, far better by buying the stocks that are at a 52-week high.
When they're at a 52-week low, they're at a low, and it's for a reason.
It's either management, you know, is not doing something right, something's going wrong within the industry or the sector,
and, you know, it's not working, don't throw good money after bad money, you're much better focusing on that momentum factor.
And then with the EPS provisions, it's one of the very few factors that we have that's not dependent on a number of underlying factors.
With the EPS provisions, what we're actually looking at is the quantity of analysts that are taking their estimates up or down
versus the sector median for taking it up or down.
So we're really just looking at that sole factor, it's the only one, but it tends to be very powerful,
especially what I find is when you're going into earning season,
if you start to see that revision grade move positively in the weeks before they report,
that's usually a very good sign.
Or if you see it moving the other way, it's usually a sign to, like, watch out.
That means analysts have less confidence.
And really, you know, as many of you know, you can't always go off of the directional recommendation for Wall Street analysts.
They, you know, I think only, like, 3% of the stocks that they cover have a sell recommendation on it.
The majority of their recommendations are usually hold or buy.
That is definitely not the case with a quant.
We have just as many strong sells as we do strong buys.
So, you know, we tend to have a system that is, I think, much more fair and balanced.
But what I will say, even though a Wall Street analyst could have a strong buy on a stock,
they often want their numbers to be right.
They want, you know, they want a good model.
They want their estimates to be right.
So they can sort of get away with telling the world that they have a strong buy on a stock,
but they can reduce their earnings estimate because they don't want to miss that.
And often, like, what the human eye won't see is, like, one or two analysts on a stock are taking their estimates down.
But what you see on Seeking Alpha is that EPS revision grade sort of reflects all the analysts.
And we're looking at that sheer quantity that's moving up or down for that particular factor.
And it is very, very effective as either a warning sign to watch out going into earnings
or basically to double down going into earnings that analysts are really pumped up, you know, in the weeks ahead.
So I'd say that and the momentum factors are the best one to look at.
But if you're taking that longer term perspective, just let the system, you know, do what it does.
It works on a GARF basis.
It's worth at a reasonable price.
Plus, we're adding the revisions and the momentum factors to that.
And it's got a great 13-year track record.
So let me pause there for any more questions.
Evan?
I think you're doing it pretty well.
Evan, anything else you're curious about?
Any other features that I feel like we're using this platform a ton but maybe not maximizing it?
I would say one of the great, you know, tools that is underutilized is the portfolio tool.
So if you load up your portfolio, it will show you the ratings for all those core factors in addition to a ton of other information.
So I would say, you know, for anybody who is just like starting a free trial, load up their holdings into the portfolio tool.
It's super easy, whether you have 10 stocks or 50 stocks, you can literally just grab the ticker symbols from an Excel sheet, paste it and load it and just watch it populate within a couple of seconds.
I literally, I have like 30 different portfolios that I look at, everything from like Berkshire Hathaway's holdings to ARK to cybersecurity baskets to drone baskets to artificial intelligence baskets to water baskets, mobile payment baskets.
I absolutely love this tool and outside of just, it shows our quant rating, but also it shows the Wall Street ratings and the CT analyst ratings.
But you can also look, there's an earnings page, there's a dividend page, there's a value page, a growth page, a performance page.
I love the earnings page, especially when we're around results, because you can sort by the different columns.
So you can sort by the upcoming announcements, or you could sort by the last quarter announcements and just see how the stocks have done in your portfolio.
And, you know, I have this AI portfolio, I wrote this article a couple months ago, and I'm loving like looking at the stocks that just reported, like almost all of them beat on both top line and bottom line.
So I would definitely encourage people to use that portfolio tool, even if you're just doing the seven-day trial, you'll immediately understand why it's so valuable.
And plus you get alerts too, if any of those factor grades change or the ratings on the company change, you'll get an email alert bringing that to your attention.
So especially if you have a larger portfolio of like 50 stocks, it's really helpful for bringing information to you on what's important right away.
But, you know, it also provides you with a health score in your portfolio.
So you simply like click on the health score, and it will show you overall, it'll break down how many strong buys you have, how many buys, how many sells within the stocks in your portfolio.
It'll show you how it compares.
It'll show you what analysts think about the stocks that you own outside of the quant.
If your stocks have dividends, we have dividend safety grades as well.
And then for all the core factors, it'll show you what like the average grade is.
So if you have 50 stocks in your portfolio, it will tell you like the average grade for your growth is B minus.
The average grade for profitability is B.
Your average valuation grade could be D plus.
So it's a great tool sort of for a health check.
So I definitely would tell people to use that.
And another thing that I think is underutilized is we have a comparison tool.
So you literally could compare a bunch of stocks that you're looking at.
So if you're looking at a number of like airline stocks or energy stocks, you can put the ticker symbols in and I'll compare them right next to each other.
So it's really a great tool, especially if you're trying to decide, like, you know, you only want to have one stock in a certain sector.
You could look at like three or four of them right next to each other and look at which ones have the best grades and factors, growth rates, evaluation right there.
Any other questions?
No, I think you hit on that really well.
Curious, general indices wise, you know, SPY, QQQ, what are some of the tools people can use to analyze those through Seeking Alpha?
Yeah, I'm actually really glad you brought that up because I have grades on ETFs as well and we have an ETF screener.
So with the ETF screener, you could look at it, you know, on a stock basis, fixed income basis, commodity basis, international basis.
So we break it down to, I think, 10 different asset classes and we rank the ETFs based on different metrics.
So the same way it works on a quant basis, you can go to the ETF screener and find out what's like ranking on top.
And that is like a wonderful tool, you know, especially if your preference is to go for ETFs over stocks or if you just like have a balanced portfolio of stocks and ETFs, you could use the ETF screener.
And right now on the top of this screener, we're seeing a fair amount of crypto and blockchain.
Nice. Yeah, that's definitely helpful.
So let me put it out there one more time because I can see people going into it.
If you can't find it, usually this happens on Spaces, just DM me the word Seeking Alpha.
Again, completely free trial, which like you mentioned, they don't offer in too many places.
So I'm happy that I do have a link that gives people a free trial.
You got it. You got to try it out.
I mean, again, I just don't close the tab on this.
It's too helpful.
You can dive into any stock.
There's research pieces.
There's individual thoughts.
There's top stock lists.
Some of my best performers I found off of the list that they have given, just kind of long-term best performers.
VIST is another one that's up 127% the past year.
These are all just ones that I pulled literally just off their top list.
So if you can't find it, DM me Seeking Alpha.
I'll send you the link for a completely free trial with them.
You can check it out and see where it goes for you.
And then, of course, if you do decide to convert, now's a great time because there's a built-in 30% discount for Black Friday.
But that post is on my timeline if you want to check it out yourself.
Roll through some of the features, stock screeners, quant models, top stocks.
I think we covered a lot of it.
So I wanted to just kind of get in here for 30 minutes.
Evan, do you have any other commentary you want to share on it?
No, nothing too much.
I'm a big fan of Seeking Alpha.
Like I said, I use the news a lot.
I use the earnings tab a lot.
I use the Catalyst Watch a lot as well.
It's a tab that never does close on my computer.
So I would definitely recommend everyone go in and at least try it out.
It's 100% worth doing a free trial.
And I think a lot of you guys will not want to be living without it.
But definitely something that I use every single day.
I'm excited.
I've been using it every single day for like three years now, four years now.
So I'm happy to be doing a little bit of work with them.
I think it's a really great product that, like I said, if you're not trying out the free trial, at least, I think you're really missing out on this one.
I love it.
Steven, let me turn it over to you.
Any other final comments?
Anything else you want to point out to people for trying it or maybe give it a try?
Well, all I have to say is like it's – I didn't arrange a deal, but I think it's awesome that people who come in through you are getting a better deal than they are on the Seeking Apple platform.
So hats off to you.
I want to wish you and your listeners a very happy Thanksgiving.
And if anybody has follow-up questions, they can just send them in to you and you can forward it on to me and I'll get back to them.
But just wishing everybody well going into this holiday season.
Thank you so much for having me.
Appreciate it, everyone, for hopping on with us today.
We'll be back on Spaces in probably a few hours, closer to 2 p.m. Eastern, with our friends from Savvy Trader.
So looking forward to talking with you all then.
That'll do it for now.
Take care.
Have a good one.
Have a good one.
