all right classic rug my bad on that one we're gonna get back into this conversation here
i didn't even click a link on that one i think that was just something i don't even know
one of those days one of those days
stock talk let me give you co-host back i did not click a link there for the record One of those days. One of those days.
Stock talk, let me give you co-host back.
I did not click a link there, for the record.
I just assumed you clicked a link because you did it all.
No, no, it just went down.
It literally just went down.
And stock talk got kicked as a listener.
Back to a listener as well.
I do want to take the next part of this conversation with him towards Rare Earths and that type of scenario.
Obviously, they've been really interesting movers
over the last couple of days and weeks.
Let me send you the co-host again, Stock Talk.
All right, do we have you?
Shout out to Martin down below, a bunch of you guys.
We already have 300 of you back in here, Doji Cat, Winterman you click the link no i did not i did not i have no idea what
happened i saw the notification i should have jumped over and tried to save it is what it is
is what it is but we already have 400 of you guys back in here i appreciate you for coming back in
i'll change the title in a second as well um yeah amd stock i'm down i'm
sure it's still down uh i did want to ask you stock talk rare earths silver gold copper all
that stuff have been in a lot of the the talking points recently there was some fun that was set
up yesterday there was also a couple news stories this morning a lot of stuff going on in this area
let me get the the news story that was this morning,
or unless you wanted to say what it was.
Are you talking about the reserves?
It feels like so long ago.
Like last night slash this morning.
Well, I saw this morning the European Union will reportedly pitch the United States
on a critical minerals partnership
to curb china's influence that was the headline that i saw this morning around rare earths and
all that stuff yeah that was another headline too yep do you have any uh any any thoughts on
this area obviously we were taking some stabs yeah i mean obviously i've talked about many
of the stocks before but yeah i don't own any exposure to it anymore it's just too many thoughts
from like the perspective of like china european china and the european union china and all these other
parts of the world seems like it's uh is a very broad question um any thoughts on china and the
european union no in this critical minute so the real question is is around critical minerals
we've kind of had some talk in the spaces earlier about a little bit
of a bifurcation about you know two sides kind of developing a little bit there and you know there's
china and canada doing something with evs there's china and europe with other stuff and imagine a
lot of this is a conversation about european about the us being able able to be the people doing the deals in those markets.
I don't know what the deal is because they haven't given the details of it yet.
I assume some sort of critical minerals
partnership between America and Europe is
probably pretty sensible considering
we're both on the side when it comes to countering
the same side when it comes to countering China's influence.
So yeah, I mean, it was nice. Those stocks ripped today.
The nuclear stocks ripped today also,
which I don't know why the nuclear stocks
are getting tied in with the rare earth trade,
That doesn't make any sense to me,
but they are for some reason.
So those stocks ripped today as well.
But yeah, look, it's a very, very important issue.
The thing is, is that it requires regulation, regulation approval
and immediate investment and getting mass moving. And so there's been a lot of talk,
but we need to get actual mass moving to get those mines up and running. And there needs to
be a lot of delegation as to where the mines will be and where the processing facilities will be, because a lot of European countries are not going to want to take that on because of their environmental standards that they have.
It's part of the reason why a lot of these offtake agreements have been signed with countries like South Africa, Saudi Arabia, because they are willing to do the processing and refining there.
because they are willing to do the processing and refining there.
And they're willing to risk their environments for doing that
because they're not as politically left-leaning as the European nations,
and so they just care less about that stuff.
And so you can find partnerships in them.
It's part of the reason why Australia is becoming less and less viable of a candidate
because they are beginning to care more in Australia about the environmental
standards behind processing the rare earth. So yeah, a solution has to be found and it's going
to be probably going to require Europe, but it's also going to require the Middle East and it's
going to require Africa too, most likely for us to actually get rarearas produced at the scale that China does.
So, yeah, it's going to be something that's going to be relevant for a long time,
I got shaken out of that trade last week, like I mentioned.
But, you know, it's still a very relevant theme and relevant thematic.
I don't blame people for wanting exposure to it.
It's just the one problem is all the stocks, all of the stocks in that group are very speculative and
very overpriced. And so you run into market headwinds and they're going to go down a lot.
And if you're in a catalyst rich environment, they're going to go up a lot. So as long as
you're willing to stomach that volatility, I think it's still a really smart theme to be in.
But it is going to be very volatile.'s gonna be high atr moves gonna be plus 15 moves minus 15 moves um pretty often so you have to be able to uh
to do that you know you have to be able to sit through that if you want to sit in that trade
and the same thing goes for like the nuclear trade or the quantum trade or the space and satellite trade.
All those trades are very volatile and very high beta.
And you have to be able to sit through that.
If you're the type of person that's going to ask why when a stock in any of those four or five categories is red,
then you shouldn't be trading them because that's not how it works.
You know, we have high ATR stocks.
They're going to extend very quickly off the moving averages, which means they will need to find gravity to the moving averages very quickly as well.
That's just how it works.
You have stocks that are going to go up 10% to 12% in a day.
After five or six sessions, you're already 50% or 60% extended from the short-term moving averages.
That's going to welcome some downside volatility um you know and so you have to be prepared for
that if you if you trade names like that and most people just don't understand they think like
you know they they see a stock gapped up five days in a row and they get fomo and they want to buy it
and they get dunked on because of that so yeah those themes are all
great but they're also very volatile so you just have to be aware of that if you're trading them
but um back to what i was thinking about the indexes before um evan uh closed the space um
you have to pay attention to the weekly charts.
You're not going to find any signal on the daily charts
with this kind of headline-driven environment.
So just pay attention to the weekly charts.
Look for them to hold structure.
And as long as that's intact, I think you just dance with the music
because it's going to be really hard to call a double top in this market
considering the last six or seven times we've been on the verge of that
happening and the market has stick saved itself. So I won't be the person to call that in advance.
And if some people are out there who are going to be willing to make that call, I'm not willing to
make that judgment call. So I will just react to the breakdowns when they happen and cross that
bridge when I come to it. I'm not in the game of
being a profit. I'm not in the game of like nailing tops and bottoms. I think that that's a fool's
errand. I think you try to catch the meat in the middle. You try to find good stocks and you try
to ride them for as long as you can. I think that's how you make money in markets. I don't
think you make money in markets by like saying, oh, the top is here. I think so because of X, Y,
and Z. I think you just cross those bridges when you
come to them and manage exposure as you as you come into those spots and so for me right now
i'm operating with a nice cushion year to date i feel comfortable about all my positions i have
three weeks of earnings coming up so you know by by march i'll have a lot more clarity on
the individual stocks i own i'll make the adjustments I need to make.
And then I'll go from there based on where the indexes are at that point.
And if the indexes look great at that point, they'll throw some more darts.
If they don't, then I'll be cautious.
If they look bad, then I'll be hedged.
Like, it's pretty straightforward.
Markets really are not hard.
And making money in bull markets should never be hard.
The only reason people ever don't make money in bull markets is usually because they're just stubborn or they're because
they get scared out really easily during moments of volatility or because they have like a thesis
on a particular sector that they really like. And most of their exposure is in that sector.
And that sector just isn't performing as well as the market or isn't performing as well as the leading parts of the market that's how you get left behind in bull markets by being like a
stubborn arrogant fool so unless you're a stubborn arrogant fool you should make a lot of money in
bull markets you should have made a lot of money last year you should have made a lot of money in
2024 you should be up a lot this year if you're not up a lot this year you're in the wrong stocks
up a lot this year if you're not up a lot this year you're in the wrong stocks
it's just a hard truth i said that earlier but it's just the truth um it's not the market's fault
it's not a bad market it's been a terrific market actually year today
last week the last week has been a little volatile and a little rough
But it's been a terrific market year to date.
but it's been a terrific market uh year today so if you're down
So if you're down year to date, you're in the wrong socks.
If you are struggling year to date, you're in the wrong socks.
And people are going to hear the audience and get really annoyed by that or take it personally or whatever.
What do you think of the time frame here?
I mean, that might not even be the
correct word i'm looking for but optimizing for a one month two month window if you had no you're
not optimizing for one month or two month window you're optimizing for the market you're in like
i own stocks that haven't done that well this year did this so far that's fine that you can
own some stocks like that you can own some stocks that don't perform all the time that's okay but
you should be in stocks that are performing like there is opportunity cost in the market constantly and it
is constantly the little shadow behind you that investors often ignore because i don't know why
but i guess they just like do it for the sake of being labeled an investor i don't know but investors do this
most often they ignore opportunity cost but traders do this also because they get stubborn
about a trade that they're in that somewhere somewhere where they see potential or value and
they get really really hung up on it and that's equally as stupid um so yeah whether you're a trader or investor, opportunity costs matter.
So no, it's not about like viewing the market in a one month timeframe.
That's a simplification, oversimplification of what I'm saying.
What I'm saying is that the market gives you bouts of opportunity.
And it is your job to seize them, whether you're a trader or an investor.
And like if you're an investor in the last five years and you aren't invested in any of the hot themes in ai or space or nuclear or quantum or so on and so forth metals or rare
metals and all this oh there's been 10 themes that have you know the average stock has gone up 300
percent in the last five years if you're if you're an investor and you weren't exposed to any of
those themes in the last five years,
what does that say about a time horizon?
Does it not matter just because you're a long-term investor and it doesn't matter and there's a couple names that you own and those are the names you want to own?
That means you gave up on an enormous amount of opportunity.
Some people invest as if they're going to live to 200 years old.
You just don't care about a five-year bull market.
My stocks didn't participate this time.
They will in the next bull market.
These type of markets don't just, they're not normal.
Maybe they are going forward.
I mean, I don't know who knows, but historically they're not normal.
So yeah, no, it's not about caring about one month, but you should care about your portfolio performing on a year-to-year basis.
You should care about that.
Because eventually you're going to look back in the rearview mirror and be like, well, all for the sake of being labeled an investor, I'm up 12% in five years.
And there are individual stocks, hundreds of individual stocks that are up 500% over that period.
Like, I mean, sure, I guess you can live with the 12% because you can wear the investor name badge.
people people are so occupied with adhering to an investment philosophy that they forget about
the principles of investing in the first place of which opportunity cost is perhaps the biggest one
and so yeah make whatever excuses you want to make but yeah if you're not performing well this
year you do not have a portfolio that is exposed to the right areas whether you're an investor or a trader or whatever else you want to call yourself and do not have a portfolio that is exposed to the right areas, whether
you're an investor or a trader or whatever else you want to call yourself.
And if you have a portfolio that didn't do really, really well last year, same thing
And if you have a portfolio that didn't do really, really well in the year before that,
So, you know, either you can just ignore what I'm saying and be like, whatever, dude, I
Or you can go back and look at your performance honestly and ask yourself, have I been in the right stocks during this bull market, this raging bull market the last five years?
I mean, you can even group 22 into it and it's still a raging bull market.
If you group 22 into it, it just looks like a pause in the bull market, which is really what it was.
You know, we've and in the bull market which is really what it was you know um
we've been in a vertical market if you're not making money in it you will own the wrong things
hard it's a really really hard pill to swallow for people who especially people who are experienced
now i have a couple of friends in real life who haven't been doing that well
in the market this last year, year and a half.
And they're experienced investors.
They've been in the game for 20 plus years.
It's a hard pill for them to swallow, you know?
it's not like I'm just saying this to you guys as the audience,
because I think you guys are all idiots or something.
I tell this to my friends too who aren't performing.
Like, dude, you're in the wrong stocks.
You know, I don't know what to tell you.
You just own the wrong things.
You pick the wrong things.
And that's like a big ego concession
because a lot of times people do work
to pick the stocks, right, that they pick.
And so it's a big kind of hit to the ego
to be like, okay, yeah, you know,
I really thought this out,
I'm looking at the wrong place in the
market. And it's part of the game to just do that. And some dudes like I'm wrong sometimes too,
where I'm like, okay, I really, really thought this was going to work and it didn't work. And
I just concede to the market and take the loss and move forward with the rest of the capital.
Like it's always a tough thing to do psychologically, but it's something you have to do.
You have to adapt with the market.
The market is constantly sending you signals through price
of where it wants to be and where the money wants to be.
What a lot of people do is ignore that and they go,
oh, that's a bubble or that's hype.
Bubbles are the best place to make money in bull markets.
And yeah, eventually the music stops when
the music stops for the bubble the given bubble in any bull market the whole market stops and so
you're not avoiding that risk by being exposed to other things you will face that bubble pop risk
no matter where you are whether you're in the ai trade or not so while you're on the long side you
might as well be in those sectors that are giving you the asymmetric upside. They're giving you the constant
multiple expansion month after month after month. You might as well be in those sectors because
when the music stops, it's going to stop for everything, not just for those names.
And so while the music is playing, be at the front of the party, be at the front of the crowd,
you know, be ahead of the herd
like well like i always say but that's the choice you face in the bull market it's not about
whether or not the market will crash the market will always crash only five to seven years
it's about how much money you make in between the crashes that's how much you keep in the crash
yeah well i mean that's part of the game too but it's about how much you keep in the crash. Yeah. Well, I mean, that's part of the game too,
but it's about how much you can stack your portfolio in between the crashes. Even if you
take, let's say, you know, a 20% temporary portfolio drawdown, 30% temporary portfolio
drawdown during your crash. If your portfolio is up hundreds of percent over the course of a five
or six year bull market, or if your portfolio is up thousands of percent over the course of a five or six year bull market, or if your portfolio is up thousands of percent
over the course of X amount of time,
then that matters a lot less.
you can endure that drawdown much more easily.
But if your portfolio is up 12%
over the course of a six year bull market,
and then you see a 30% drawdown on a market crash,
That means your portfolio's negative
on a six year return now.
So yes, it matters how much money you make in between.
In fact, that is the biggest factor, in my opinion.
Much bigger than how big the drawdown is
for whenever the crash happens.
The crashes are gonna happen, you cannot avoid that.
So yes, all that matters really is how much
money you make in between.
That's fair. It's also about identifying when it's your time and when it isn't and changing
quickly. I know we've talked a lot on here about, you know, you're not going to catch
the tops. You're not going to catch the bottoms. It's about that middle 80% of the move of really what you're looking for.
People on here do like to call those tops and the bottoms.
SMCI did report earnings in the middle of that.
Adjusted EPS beat 49 cents.
12.7 billion revenue beat 10.23 billion estimate.
Now, do we believe the numbers?
Now, do we believe the numbers?
That's for you to decide.
That's for you to decide.
But yeah, stock is initially moving higher by 6% now.
It's giving them back a little bit of it, but you never know.
Ooh, I just hit the wrong thing again.
That data center theme is staying strong.
That data center theme is staying strong. That data center theme is staying very strong.
Yeah, double beat, strong guidance.
They beat by a pretty good clip on both revenue and EPS.
Yeah, revenue of $12.7 billion.
Looks like Wall Street wanted $10.2 billion, as he was saying there before.
$0.69 on EPS, Wall Street wanted $0.49.
So quite a large beat there.
Adjusted gross margin of 6.4%.
I guess that's what's expected.
Full year net sales outlook of $40 billion.
And they're in Q2 right now.
SMCI stock's up about 7%.
Is it accelerating to the downside a little bit?
It's hanging out at the lows.
Trump did sign the funding bill a while ago made some comments here and there
nothing too earth shattering he's done speaking at this point interesting i wonder what themes
we want to talk about today we have a really exciting conversation coming up here which i
am looking forward to we're going to talk about some different themes in the stock market here. I think the copper, the gold miners, lithium,
all that stuff is one that I am really interested in. Cloud computing is one that we don't talk
about too much. Stock talk, is cloud computing, the cloud in general, an investing theme that
you ever look into? Are there small mid-cap names playing in that area or is it just dominated by
the Googles of the world?
Obviously, those type of areas.
I mean, there kind of are, but no, it's not really an area
What about cybersecurity?
I have been looking at cybersecurity
Interesting. Are there a lot of small
It does seem a little bit more diverse.
There are quite a few. There's not a bit more yeah there are quite a few there's not like a lot
but there's there's quite a few um yeah i saw that's like that sector getting clobbered today
and i was sort of looking at it a handful of them but i just don't know if they're going to continue
to get grouped and a lot of the software selling. And I don't know.
A lot of the valuations are also obviously rich because that's just how the cybersecurity stocks have traded.
So there are a couple, though, that are interesting to me.
But there are a couple that are interesting to me.
We'll double click back into that one.
It's not one that we actually talk about too much.
You ever look into, do banks ever make it into the small mid-caps, fintech,
anything like that ever make it into your watch list?
Yeah, I'm also looking at some fintech names right now too.
I'm also looking at some fintech names right now too.
The problem with a lot of these kind of neglected areas is that I just can't build technical
I can build fundamental conviction, but I just can't build technical conviction, which
is why I haven't pulled the trigger because the charts suck on a lot of names that I'm
looking at in both fintech and in cybersecurity.
That makes it trickier for me to be gung-ho about it.
It's much easier for me to be really, really convicted in an idea when I like the technical setup and the fundamental setup and the thematic relevance.
Those are my high conviction um stocks and for most of
the cyber security space i just can't find charts like that and so that's an issue
i'd like to see the bottoms form a little bit right now first yeah i need to see like
not not even i don't i i don't even like to see what I call like no man's land bottoming where price is without catching up to any of the moving averages.
Because a lot of times that's just consolidation before another leg lower.
And so I don't lean on that.
Now, sometimes I'll say, okay, I i think something's gonna happen here on the upcoming
quarter that's gonna cause a reversal and and and fix the structure like i did that last year on a
couple of earnings reports i did that with like lit one of lifts earnings last year that worked
really well they had a busted chart prior to that and then like i think path and like a few others
i think maybe even three or four last year where i took a and like a few others i think maybe even three
or four last year where i took a stab like that but if i ever do that i'm going to do it with like
a much more controlled position size you know maybe like one or two percent position size
in purely in options and then just like hope for a big winner like i think i did like 500
on path earnings 500 on p lab earnings 500 on lift earnings so 500% on P lab earnings, 500% on lift earnings. So if I can
set myself up for like a 500% play on a 1% position in a moment like that, because I think
there's a catalyst, then I'll do it. But if I don't think there's that sort of asymmetrical
upside, then I probably won't. And that's what I'm struggling with, with cybersecurity right now
is just like the charts suck, or at least the charts of a lot of names that i'm looking at suck so
um i i don't think i'm gonna be buying any of them anytime soon until that changes but uh
i am looking at some of them like in theory doing some research um
care to let us know exactly which ticker so we can
whenever I bring that up in my community that's what they always ask me
yeah let us know so we can get in before the
just gonna buy every ticker
at Midcap Cybersecurity tonight
if I do buy any of these it'll probably be in q2 or
q3 to be honest because right now like i said the charts are just not pretty and you know i i again
i'll lean back on what i say a lot which is i'd almost rather buy some of these higher now
structurally though like if you just look at the price structure outside of the moving averages
there are some that are selling into really really interesting spots i'm looking at two of them right
now so that's potentially interesting just the whole software sector is just getting brutalized
right now and it's like yeah, I just don't know,
do you get a V bounce out of here
I don't know if you're thinking this,
but I'm kind of trying to read between the lines
of what you're saying is you see it,
you know, maybe base out,
you know, maybe bounce up a little bit,
start to base out and, you know,
try to build some type of support
into something yeah like i don't want to guess but i will say this would be a nice spot for it
to bounce and if not then probably going to 75 and that would that's where that that would be
a really really good spot for reversal if they are if they are going to reverse this thing but i'm in very high volume selling on igv
um i mean even sam allman came out this morning it was like the you know the stuff we've been
seeing with coding is like only going to get better and that's not going anywhere and so
yeah i don't know i think there's just like a cohort of investors
that are like, what's the, what's the runway, you know, maybe it's five or six years until
you can vibe code a really sophisticated pro like software. But, you know, if, if,
if a lot of these companies only have five or six years, then, you know, what's the investment thesis?
It's really hard to time that.
I don't know. It's complicated.
What's happening in software is complicated. The sentiment
is complicated. I almost don't want to
be involved just because of that, but
I always like when I randomly poke around
and discover one or two new things.
I think we should be having Paul on here
from the themes team in a little bit,
and I was just poking my way around some of the topics.
So, and obviously they do have their cybersecurity ETF.
They also do have a US R&D champs, uranium and
nuclear one. Obviously, I know you
has been an interesting one. It has stayed in the portfolio.
it has to do with the nuclear build-out,
Interesting. Okay, sorry um but yeah some of the interesting different categories there stock talk tell me what's going on more in your world obviously we we from more of like a stock
picking macro perspective like we um towards the end of last year you kept on saying this is
you know you know at the start of the year you open kept on saying this is, you know, you know, at the start of the year, you open new positions
and you're kind of pivoting towards it.
And here we are last week, last couple of weeks,
opening a bunch of positions.
And obviously, you could say if I say anything wrong here,
but I'm just curious on where you're at from the portfolio perspective.
You say you like to hold 10 to 15 names.
I know you're in at 17 right now.
Obviously, we're past January now.
I wonder if we're getting back into analyst phase or anything like that at any point soon.
Yeah, I'm curious more from those type of questions.
I know there's a couple loaded ones in there, but yeah.
Yeah, I have been reading more analyst research.
There still hasn't been anything that's blown my mind that made me like really, really overtly want to buy something.
But I have been reading quite a bit of analyst research to start the year off.
I have been doing a lot of just independent research as well.
I've been doing like independent research like basically every night.
research like basically every night so I do a lot of work in Q1 I'm like always working and reading
So I do a lot of work in Q1.
in Q1 and Q2 really because that's when you know a lot of new information comes out and a lot of
new themes develop and you know a lot of policy decisions are made and so on and so forth so I
do a lot of work in the first and second quarters. And then in the third and fourth quarters, I really just try to let my portfolio work for me.
But, you know, that can change if conditions change as well.
So, yeah, I haven't done a lot this year so far.
I mean, I've opened, what, one, two, three, four new positions,
closed one of them or really got shaken out of one of them.
And then so I'm sitting on three new positions on the year.
The positions I carried over from last year, I've done a lot of heavy lifting,
They've done well for me this year.
I mean, VIAVI is a standout, obviously.
Kratos has done well this year so far.
So those have all given me some juice into the new year and our carryover
positions from last year. And then, you know, I have the new stocks that I've talked about
on here that have also done pretty well, you know, Pangea logistics acting really well,
GLDD acting really well. Synaptics down a little bit on my cost basis, but that earnings is coming
up this week. I'll figure out whether or not I see confirmation of my thesis there or not. And so, yeah, I'm just sticking
to the names that I know well and hoping that I see more corroboration of the thesis on the
earnings. And if I do, then I keep holding them. And if I don't, then I get out of them. It's
pretty straightforward. So that's just kind of how i operate and and right now i'm pretty comfortable with where i am i hope to be at 21 or 22 positions
oh by end of q1 i like to be at a lot of positions like end of q1 because i'm gonna end up cutting a
lot of them so there'll probably be four or five new stocks ads between now and then. The one issue I do have is I have quite a few contracts coming up for expiration on March 20th.
And there are a handful of them that I want to exercise, including my ENS 115 calls, which I got at $8.
And they're now trading at $75 each.
Those are up 800%, but I want to exercise some of those.
So I don't know if I'll have the buying power to really be up to 22 positions or not.
And then I have Amcor $25 calls, which I got at $3, which are now trading at $21.
I also want to exercise some of those and get some
more amcor shares at 28 so that's gonna take some buying power and then i have vavi 14 calls that i
bought at a buck that are now trading at 12 or 13 bucks that i also want to exercise some of those
and those are coming up for expiration in march so you know don't know. I have a lot of stuff that shares that I
want to buy on higher conviction positions that I'm going to exercise on and, you know,
I have to figure that out. I also own some Huntington $300 calls that expire in March,
which I bought at 17, which are now trading at $130 each. So I want to exercise some of those.
I keep saying I want to be up to 21 or 22 positions,
but I don't think it's going to happen by end of Q1.
So what will end up happening is that
I'll upsize those positions that I talked about
at very, very favorable costs.
I mean, basically all those prices I named
are like half the price of where the stock currently is and then after that i'll see what where the buying power is at
and then i'll i'll decide how many new positions so i'm actually kind of likely to see some
portfolio stagnation until march 20th but i I do have enough to play with some maybe month or month and a half long
trades in between now and then.
I'm excited to talk more about it live on these spaces.
I know it's also in your group.
They could see that there, the Lincoln Stock Talks bio.
I did see Paul and the LeverShares bio i did see paul and the lever shares
team joining us up here paul how you doing sir i'm doing well man what a busy day what a busy day
we won't take too much of your time on this one obviously i know it's craziness going on
um i just want to first hear how you're doing uh before i ask about some of the uh specific
ticker stuff like that if general market things are on your radar interesting for you
obviously we had amd earnings that stock's down a little bit market was down a little bit today
for the most part some names were working but how you doing we appreciate you being here as always
i'm doing awesome man the market uh up or down can never get to me personally i mean i've been
in this thing too long and it's just uh it's always interesting to me. So I don't let the ebbs and flows of the
market or what's on paper ever get to me. What I'm always interested in is like digging in and
trying to figure out why the market is moving in one particular direction or another and try to
make some sense out of it. I literally just got off a call with a really large influential financial advisor that's based in New York
right before I got on this call.
And we were talking through so many different things.
And, you know, there's a lot of uncertainty that's happening in the market.
A lot of people taking some losses on paper.
But, you know, I just think it's kind of reminiscent of February last year.
It's kind of reminiscent of February last year.
You know, we had a decent January last year, and then February, we started to get really
There was a lot of noise in the marketplace, you know, almost like the same kind of talks,
like geopolitical risk, tariff stuff, you know, a lot of uncertainty around.
Last year was a lot of uncertainty with what Trump was going to institute and what that was going to mean for inflation and things like that.
And it doesn't sound too much different now.
But, you know, there's some other things that are creeping in as well and some things that didn't advance the way that they were supposed to advance and others that are, you know, seem to be uncertain.
that seem to be uncertain.
But at the end of the day, when I look at these things,
especially something like an AMD, if you look at it,
And yet the stock gets beat up.
So it's almost like people are making up their minds
And they're just trading off of what they feel.
I say this all the time to my kids, sometimes to my girlfriend, although she doesn't like it,
and to other people, feelings don't matter. And when I look underneath the hood
at what some of these companies are doing and what some of their growth expectations are, and I kind of see a very long runway for growth, it kind of excites me that some of these things move down.
And it's the same thing that I would say about crypto.
And I always say, have high conviction in what you're investing in.
You should be able to argue with somebody for hours about why you want to invest in something.
And you should be steadfast no matter where the market is going at the moment.
So I give Peter Schiff a lot of shit sometimes because he's always one-sided,
but at least he's got high conviction.
And it only took 15 years, but the gold trade paid off for him, right? It paid off pretty big.
It was his conviction and his thesis that got him to a pretty good result, right?
All the convictions that I have in the market in certain areas, like the chip sector,
if you're good, if you're hyper-competitive, and if you've got the best quality chips, that doesn't change my mind. And I see growth
for many years into the future. When you think about cryptocurrencies and things like that,
a lot of growth. I don't think software is dead. Yeah, I know there's a lot of things going around
lot of things going around where different agentic AI has been fighting with each other
and talking badly about humans and the work that they make them do and all this other stuff.
But at the end of the day, is it going to persist? Is it going to grow? Is it going to be developed
at a major scale? Is investment going in those directions? And is it growing at a very
strong rate? And again, if this is the quarter that something like AMD does and it gets beat up
for it, just imagine what the quarter is going to be like for something like NVIDIA. And if it gets
beat up, buy more. If it doesn't, I'll have a bigger smile on my face that day than I would have had it
gotten beat up. But I'll still have a smile on my face knowing that I have really high conviction in
certain segments of the market. And I believe in what's being built. And I'm going to stick to my
knitting until there's something wrong. And by the way, the other thing is, if these moves are really something that's
structural within the market,
which I don't think that it is,
but let's just say that it is,
I still think those are the sectors
and the industries that will come back quicker.
So a lot of noise, a lot of market volatility,
But I just have a lot of conviction
in a lot of these areas that we've been talking about
over the past couple of months.
And that's where I'm sort of focused.
Before I get into too much,
make sure you are following
all of the speakers up here.
It's been a fantastic conversation.
We got a little bit more of chatting
Some one or two more good topics
through some different themes.
But if you enjoy this type of live, live free conversations make sure you follow the hosts and
all the speakers up here who help make this be so fantastic uh yeah we really appreciate everyone
for coming in and joining us on these spaces i do want to talk a little ticker specific uh here so i
want to read out a quick disclosure here, and then we will get right
into the conversation. Sorry. A funds investor should carefully consider a fund's investment
objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary
prospectus can be found, and all this type of information can be found on the website at themesetfs.com.
To obtain a fund prospectus and summary prospectus, visit their website.
A fund prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.
We're excited to be working with the themes ETFs, the leverage shares teams.
Our goal, we've been doing this for three, four years. investing. We're excited to be working with the themes ETFs, the leverage shares teams.
Our goal, we've been doing this for three, four years. We are producing so much live content every single day for free. And part of it is bringing on really smart people
for conversations like this and people who work with a team so that we can keep all that content
for free forever. Our goal is for this to just be a place for you guys to go in and start your research.
I do have a tweet pinned up in the nest above, has a little bit about one of the ETFs that I
am very interested in right now, a topic that I am watching very closely right now around copper.
C-O-P-A is that ticker. But Paul, if I could just throw it over to you and start, you guys got a
bunch of different themes here, some different ones that you were excited about.
Is there one or two of these themes, whether it's commodities, thematic, fundamental, that just get you excited that you wanted to talk about here to start?
Yeah. So like I said, I was just on the phone with that big advisor in New York City. Right. And one of the things that we're talking about is copper.
So I love the fact that you led with that.
So I love the fact that you led with that.
You know, copper is such an incredible component for everything that's happening in the electrification of everything,
and whether it's robotics, whether it's hyperscale data centers, like all of that stuff.
And, you know, it's one of the most conductive metals.
And, you know, you've just heard guys like Jensen Wong that are building new racks for these data centers,
where they're talking about just how much copper is included in each one of these racks.
And also, what a lot of people don't know about copper is it's also a great cooling agent.
They have the plates that go on the outside to help keep the components cool so that they don't overheat.
And a lot of people have been looking at gold.
They've been looking at silver.
They've seen the run-ups. I'm not trying to say this because I want to prove that
I'm right. But, you know, we did talk about that hyperbolic move in gold and silver. And I was
nervous about it, like, because people keep asking me, should I get in? Should I get in?
Should I get in? And my observation was, whenever you see a hyperbolic move like that, you've got
to be careful, because all it takes is one bit of news or one exogenous shock. And what you go into is that, you know,
correction. Will there be a bounce off of that? Yeah, there could be a bounce off that.
And you're going to have to determine whether or not we're going to see, you know, a true bounce,
like a V-shaped bounce and go back to new highs, or whether we could see like, you know, some kind
of additional downturn until it gets to a base.
But I've been trying to pivot people over to copper because of the massive industrial
And that's just continuing to increase and increase and increase and increase and increase.
And so I'm really big on copper.
We have a Copper Miners Fund, COPA, C-O-P COPA, year to date, it's up 15.1%.
And the chart looks good. Whenever I'm thinking about entering something, I'm always looking at
the chart. Sometimes I get it right. Sometimes I get it wrong. I can never time the bottom,
never pick the top. But I try to be directionally correct.
And I try to be prudent about saying, hey, have I earned enough on this investment?
And if I have, and if I'm comfortable with it, and I've held it long enough, yeah, if
it's a trade, obviously, I have shorter time constraints.
And I'm interested in getting out at the right spot.
And it doesn't have to be the top.
With copper, I think you could have a long-term view on it.
And the charts look really, really good.
It looks like it's coming off the bottom.
It looks like it's forming a nice pattern up.
And it hasn't had that parabolic move that some of the other commodities have had.
And then when you think about commodities in general, there's a lot of tailwinds for commodities that make it something that people are looking to
invest in, whether that's the depreciation of the dollar, all this geopolitical risk and uncertainty
that makes people go into commodities. And so when I look at something like the entire commodity
space and I want to drill down to
something that I have a little bit more conviction in, copper just stands out to me as something
that hasn't shot up like a rocket yet and has a lot of potential to move, not just in
the short term, but over the long term.
You see a lot of people talking about a copper supply shortage or there not being enough supply for what's going forward. I've seen a lot of people talking about a copper supply shortage or some you know there not be enough supply for for
what's going forward i've seen a lot of people talking about that but i was at the nvidia
jensen huang ces keynote i think we talked about this on here but they unveiled their new next
generation chip and they kind of turn it around and it just had a bunch miles whatever it was of
copper all back there so a lot of the copper in the data center
use and we've kind of seen if you can become a bottleneck for that ai theme the market is going
to reward you pretty quickly i did put up in the nest above the tweet with the holdings for copa
copa the etf we're talking about here maybe you can walk us through one or two of those holdings
uh there and then why why copper miners versus just copper itself or something like that?
Maybe I'm sure there's other ways that it can be played
through an ETF, but why copper miners
is how you guys want to go with on COPA?
Well, because we're not really a spot commodity provider.
Like we don't do ETFs on the spot.
There's enough of those that exist out in the marketplace
We like the miners because they have a function.
You know, it's one thing to spot it
and judge by supply and demand.
It's another thing to have a business
that's wrapped around it, that extracts it
And so that's the reason why we like the miners.
And so, you know, when you look at some of the holdings
that are in here, like large established companies with diversified revenue streams, Freeport MacNoran is one of them that sticks out, Glencore, Southern Copper, you know, big names that are at the forefront of, you know, extracting this copper, mining it and getting it to the people that are going to use it.
that are going to use it. You talk about supply and demand, but I think right now, if let's just
say we didn't have this incredible movement that was ahead of us that had a great need for copper,
supply and demand hasn't really been an issue over the past 10 years when it comes to copper.
There hasn't been enough use cases for it, but I agree with you that the use cases are going up.
And so it's not just about the
supply and demand and what that looks like on a regular basis, because there are some reports
that say it's in short supply, but then there are other reports that say there's ample supply
until 2040. But the point of it is that more and more and more and more copper is going to be
needed. And whatever that means from a supply-demand dynamic, the miners are going to actually be busy working, making sure that there is enough supply for
whatever is needed. So that's the reason why we like the miners. And that's the reason why we like
some of those larger, more established companies that are extracting it and mining it, because we
think that they're not only going to benefit today, but through technology and efficiencies moving forward,
they're going to become more efficient, better operationally, and more profitable.
With something like COPA, COPA, Copper Miners ETF,
I'd imagine this is a very global kind of thing that's going on here.
How is the breakdown in this one, in this ETF?
How is the breakdown in the industry?
You know, in the industry, you know, it would be hard for me to tell you how it shapes up
in the industry regarding, like, you know, all the other competitors.
I'd have to do a comparative analysis, and off the top of my head, I don't really have that information in front of me.
And I can also get you a breakdown. I don't have that in front of me either.
But when it comes to like a country breakdown, you know, it varies.
Like Canada is a high percentage of the portfolio just in general, somewhere around 40% of the portfolio is in Canada.
around 40% of the portfolio is in Canada. But then you also see that spread out somewhere around,
I think, 16% or a little bit more in the United States. We have exposure in the United Kingdom,
somewhere around 12.5%, 13%. We have exposure in Australia and Hong Kong. So when it comes to country breakdown, we're in the regions where there's a lot of
opportunity to mine copper and where the companies that we're selecting based on the criteria are
operating. And it's not just those, the ones that I mentioned, there are others like we're
in China, Japan, Germany, Sweden at smaller percentages. But the Canada, the United States,
the United Kingdom and Australia are the top four countries where we sort of break it down.
And I guess if you combine, a lot of times they break out Hong Kong and China. Somebody's got to
let these people know that Hong Kong is now a part of China, regardless of how people like it or not.
is now a part of china regardless of how people like it or not so i guess you could say that uh
china is in the top four uh as well when you combine hong kong and china
interesting um we got another one here uh obviously another one of your etfs
is limi the lithium and battery metal miners etf limi is a very popular theme as well um copper
is one that i've really enjoyed it's gotten linked to that data center theme lithium has
been linked to batteries and battery tech and all that stuff there um i'm curious a little bit more
on limi and also uh uran u-r-a-n is your uranium and nuclear etf i know we spent a little bit more on limi and also uh uran u-r-a-n is your rain uranium and nuclear etf i
know we spent a little bit of time on this one but the commodities are super hot when you look
at friday well the super hot is a strong word friday was obviously quite a day where a lot of
air was taken out of some of these parabolic moves but if you look at any chart that's more
than like a one day one week chart these stocks these uh sectors are up pretty aggressively here
so i'm just curious on what pockets are like uh you know this is the start of what could be a
rally i think maybe copper could be that and i'm curious on what some other ones people are watching
and where lithium and uranium might fit into it i'd be curious your thoughts on the uranium one.
I didn't realize there was no use.
So on the lithium one first because it's short, there's a lot of great uses for lithium, but it just can't seem to get a bid.
But there's a lot of people that we talk to that are interested in the lithium trade.
We don't see a lot of money going to that, right?
So I think it's at the very early stages i obviously you know it's a major component in batteries and various different
things that are super important to the ai revolution and the technological revolution
robotics electric cars all of that stuff uh just hasn't been able to catch a bid uranium is the
exact opposite uranium is actually up you know a higher percentage year to date than copper and it had a
really great year last year and that's tied to energy uh and clean energy uh with the with what
is the most powerful most efficient um energy source which is nuclear which is making an
incredible comeback you know when you think about your uh the past, right, it was taboo to even consider nuclear as an option because of what happened in Fukushima and Chernobyl.
And people were, you know, devastated in those regions.
People were worried about radiation, the dangers of operating a nuclear facility, these big, large plants that seem to be very dangerous.
But technology has changed that.
And so not only is our uranium ETF, Uran, U-R-A-N, a uranium play, but it's also a nuclear play
because it's all sort of tied together. So when you look at the holdings in it,
you're going to get some names that are uranium mining plays and uranium energy plays.
But then you're also going to get some plays that are building nuclear sites, micro sites,
which are light years different from what they used to be.
They're portable. And if we are going to see everything happen that's being said in AI and tech and data centers and crypto, we're going to need massive energy sources.
And windmills aren't going to cut it.
Solar is not going to cut it.
And we can't just generate all this from fossil fuels because there's a shift to more clean energy.
And now that we're getting through some of the regulations,
through some of the taboos,
this thing has really run pretty nicely over the past year. We see it off to a really great start this year.
And we just think that's going to continue
as more and more investment goes into uranium production and extraction
and then obviously turning that uranium into
nuclear-powered energy with some great companies that are doing this stuff today.
A lot of these themes seem to be pretty linked together around US manufacturing,
US bringing back of the supply chain. I know we've talked about that a lot on here.
The stock talk, you guys even have your US infrastructure ETF, HWAY,
which is kind of focused on building all of the roads
and stuff like that that you need in between.
But a lot of these teams do kind of fit together
on just the tech advancing,
tech in the US advancing being built here.
It's a very interesting time.
You guys also do have your US R us r d champions etf which maybe
doesn't get enough love for must on this conversation maybe next time i'll focus in on
that but it doesn't get a lot of love and there's a lot of competitors in the space you know what we
get from a lot of people is why do i need to narrow it down a little bit further i could just
go into the queues and it's kind of like a very similar philosophy you know, but it is an excellent strategy to capitalize where there's a
lot of, you know, R&D being conducted. But yeah, it's one of those funds of ours that, you know,
when we launched it, we thought it was pretty interesting. We thought we'd catch a bid.
It hasn't really caught a bid yet, but definitely a good strategy for sure.
did yet, but definitely a good strategy for sure. Thank you for that, sir. Is there anything we
didn't, obviously this was a little bit of a brief one, was there anything you were super
excited to talk about as we were coming into this conversation here? Yeah. I mean, look, I'm pretty
much the same, you know, because again, when I am investing, I look at high convictions.
So human-order robotics, I mean, that is something that I'm super interested in.
Again, when you talk about year-to-date returns today, we're seeing a ton of flows and a ton of interest from people all over the world,
whether it's advisors in the U.S., retail clients, or even institutions.
I've been staying up pretty late at night talking to asset managers in Thailand who are really interested in this.
But what you get from something like this in a passive strategy based on the criteria of our index is you get a separate return stream of technology that you're not getting in broad portfolios.
that you're not getting in broad portfolios.
And the reason for that is a lot of these great robotic companies
are just by coincidence based in South Korea.
And so this portfolio is giving you an excellent return stream,
like I said, up 28 plus percent year to date.
But only 20% of that is in the United States.
51% of that is coming out of Korea.
Another 17% coming out of China.
So it's a differentiated return stream.
It's not going to be what people are getting returns from in their broad portfolios.
And it gives you a separate lane to get really, really solid returns and really, really solid
growth in the technology space, but from an
entirely different vertical. And so we really are positive on this. And then I'd be remiss if I
didn't bring up, you know, transatlantic defense still doing really, really well for us. Those
companies are just increasing their contracts. Ours is a pure play with companies that have prime
contracts with governments. We think that's super important and we think that's one of the reasons
why NATO, NATO, is doing so well, not just this year but over the long term. And then last but
not least, and I'll end it at this because I don't want to sound like a pitch machine here, but you
asked, I'm really excited about financials. I just think that the largest
financials in the world are positioned for any kind of environment. And then I also think that
the ability to invest in technology and transform their businesses, tokenize their businesses,
create a different way for transactions to happen quicker is in process.
And I think that you're going to start looking at these companies and thinking about them
with a higher multiple over time, the same way that's happened in other industries. And so
always like the financials. And if you see some of the policy shifts where there's more of an emphasis on lending, getting
interest rates and credit moving again into the system, deregulating some of the things
that have happened in the past, I think it bodes really, really well for something like
GSIB, which is our globally systemically important bank's ETF.
So those are the places that I'm really super excited about.
And not just am I super excited about it.
You know, we're hearing from, you know, financial advisors that are allocating dollars to their clients.
They're very, very interested in these as well. And so that's kind of the way that we're looking at the world. And that's what we're
focused on and tons of good stuff, both in traditional finance and then in all of the
interesting things that are happening in the technology space and energy space.
A lot of very interesting topics, conversations going on right now. Obviously, you talked about BOTT right there, Humanoid Robotics ETF.
Talked about NATO, the Transatlantic Defense ETF.
Obviously, defense has been an extremely hot sector over the last little bit.
And this whole NATO conversation has been an intriguing one, we can call it,
over the last couple of days, weeks, months around Greenland.
There's been some question marks
that maybe weren't there in the past.
There'll be another interesting one
to see how that kind of ends up
the Globally Systemically Important Banks,
which are basically those big dogs,
the largest companies in the world.
I love a good ticker here i think that
might just be me though so i won't harp too much on that one but we always got some great tickers
into it and obviously nato will be a focus of a lot of these conversations going on in the next
little bit i did actually tweet a really great graphic from the themes team today talking about
defense spending where the u.s spent its defense uh budget in 2024 so dig into that find
it out leverage your teams post some great graphics as always uh yeah just one just one
thing on nato like like literally it never stops i i've said this on this a bunch of times but
go to where the investments are going like lockheed martin just tripled their contract on air and missile defense, right?
So they literally tripled their existing contract over the past week.
And so that's where the big money is going to the prime contractors.
And that's why we're so excited about it.
And it's funny because I was on CNBC a couple of weeks ago with a competitor that was talking about Kratos.
CBC a couple of weeks ago with a competitor that was talking about Kratos.
And then just two weeks later, that same manager trimmed their exposure to Kratos.
So, like, again, these are not things that you have to pick.
Just look to where the money's going, where the prime contracts are.
And it's reasonable to believe that the majority of the government spend and the increase in government spend on defense is going to those prime contractors.
Yes, sir. That does make sense. And honestly, I enjoy watching these defense contracts every single day.
Defense.gov right around now is when they released the contracts for the day.
So we might be seeing some new ones and there have been a healthy amount of them there have been a healthy amount it's good to watch
where the money's flowing also where the uh the fun flows are going good thing to look at
and defensive not no no pun intended defensive in a uh a choppy market they do they they hold
their own even in a market that's very volatile and is trying to find its footing and direction.
I'm going to slip in one more question here, and then we'll end it up after this.
Cybersecurity. You guys have a cybersecurity ETF. The ticker is SPAM, S-P-A-M.
Another great ticker, as always.
Cybersecurity space is maybe one that doesn't get talked about enough on here. There are certain names I hear every single time,
the CrowdStrike, which is in here, but we got Akamai and C-A-C-I and Qualys, Okta, Fortinet.
We got a bunch of different names in here, which I maybe have seen a tiny bit, but don't know too
much about cybersecurity. Is this a thought, a sector in the market that is
intriguing for you personally, Paul? So it's interesting. I think cybersecurity is one of
the critically most important things for not only for governments, but also for, you know,
corporations, right? Because you have a lot of client data, personal data that has to be protected.
It can't be hacked into. And when we think about
how countries can really impact besides missiles and bombs and things like that, a lot of the
warfare moving forward could be on the technical side and on the cyber side. And you can literally
do a lot of damage with the monetary system, banking,
customer records, all that stuff, just very simply through cyber attacks. That said,
it falls into the software category. That's where it's had some issues because software has been
beaten up because you got AI that's writing its own code, doing its own stuff, right? And so there's this thought that you won't need these people on the tower that are actually coordinating all these things.
And it's not just in cyber, but it's across the board.
is so capable of programming and creating software and doing all that stuff.
The thought is that you won't need a lot of these software providers in the cyberspace
to write this code and stay on the watch, but that you will be able to do this on your own.
So if you're a Palo Alto and you have major contracts with a lot of the mega cap tech companies,
can they do that on their own? Is Amazon and AWS tech companies, can they do that on their own?
Is Amazon and AWS going to be able to do that on their own?
Are they actually going to need you?
And the word's sort of out on that.
And I think investors are concerned with which way that's going to play out and whether or
not these companies are actually going to be necessary or whether these big companies
could take it on their own and kind of provide their own cybersecurity. My gut tells me that you need somebody on the watchtower and that,
you know, you want somebody that is 100% dedicated to this and you don't want to make it a function
of your organization. The second piece of me that thinks that you need somebody on that watchtower
comes just strictly from a liability standpoint, right? Think about that blackout that happened with CrowdStrike last year when a lot of the airlines
went down. They don't want to blame it on themselves. They want to blame it on somebody
else, right? And for that afternoon, they didn't have to blame it on themselves. They blamed it on
CrowdStrike and the software patch that didn't go through well and caused all the disruptions.
How many organizations want to take that stuff in-house and put it on themselves?
And that's a lot of what I hear in the chatter in the spaces,
that AI is going to be able to take all this stuff over and do it.
But let me tell you something.
You ever try to sue a robot?
Like, you can't sue a robot.
And we live in a litigious society where somebody has to be responsible for what's happening.
has to be responsible for what's happening. And I think as long as they can bridge that gap,
do the job well, and use AI in their favor to be an even more dominant person on that watchtower
that's saving people from the enemies that are trying to encroach on them with cyber attacks
and things like that, we'll have to see how it plays
out. So I think that's the reason why it's not catching a bid. But I would agree, it's a space
that I've always said, it's like so necessary. And even in a down market, when people are cutting
their budgets for so many other things, cybersecurity is not something you could relax with.
So you're always allocating money in that space.
If you're going where the investment's going, that seems to be the right space. But because
of all these concerns that I talked about, there's been some issues with it catching a bid.
So we're going to have to see how that one plays out. i can't hear you guys so i may have lost you oh i was talking while i was not uh
unmuted there thanks paul uh i apologize for that one i appreciate everyone for joining us on
this spaces uh shout out to paul and the leverage shares team for supporting us and everything that
we do um yeah they're just out here creating great products you heard it over this last little bit
you know a very smart people doing research very rule driven you guys know what you're getting you
should go to the website and check out the prospectus the fact sheet all that stuff
beams etfs.com uh if you send me a dm if you look at the, the, you know, in other places,
you'll see that link, but go in, find, go to the website, check out the prospectus,
do all your research and see if these ETFs are right for you. I do like to say this as well.
Even if these ETFs aren't perfect for you, uh, there's still research from really smart people
that you can then go in and find of, Hey, if I'm interested in copper and you can go in and look at this ETF here and you can go in and look at COPA, C-O-P-A,
and see what names are in there. And you have a full list of copper miners kind of vetted a little
bit as well from people. So shout out to that. Shout out to the Leverage Shares team. The tweet
pinned up in the nest above has those tickers that are in C-O-P-PA. And we look forward to having Paul and the team on
again. Thank you, everybody. You all
We will catch you all tomorrow.
shout out to Eva too I see her down there
shout out to Eva I see Josh
by the way here we'll give this an extra
shout out at the end if anyone wants more content right
he's doing a lot of live streams over on the Wolf
page but we also did just post on the
Wolf Financial YouTube page
on the Wolf Financial youtube page on the wolf financial
youtube page uh we had tom nash on the show and we talked a little bit about palantir's earnings
did a review of those ones so if you want to see tom nash give you his thoughts on what happened
with palantir uh on the earnings and what to look for look for going forward you should go to the
wolf financial youtube channel check that out make sure you are subscribed you'll get some great live streams they're hosted by sam solid as well
awesome we went a little over today i appreciate you all same time same place tomorrow google
earnings tomorrow then the amazon earnings the next day so stock oh we have a nurses as well
so get excited busy day of stocks on spaces
incoming tomorrow thank you everybody have a great one team goodbye