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LIVE TRADING FUTURES | USING EDGEFUL TO FIND A+ SETUPS
Recorded: March 31, 2025 Duration: 2:04:51Space Recording
Short Summary
The transcript primarily focuses on trading activities, market analysis, and strategies for trading futures. It includes discussions on market trends, price actions, and trading strategies, with no direct references to crypto-related categories such as project launches, token launches, or partnerships.
Full Transcription
Transcribed by ESO, translated by — so Thank you. Thank you. Transcription by CastingWords Thank you. Transcription by CastingWords Thank you. Thank you. What is up?
Good morning, everyone.
Happy Monday.
All right.
What are we going to do?
We have a great red candle here.
We were short all night long.
Let me go down to Justin Q here. How's everyone doing?
Check in in the chat.
This was our lows from Friday
right here.
we opened up last night and just went down.
We also
I've got a level
down here that I almost want to try.
I don't know if I even want to try.
Let me go to the higher time frame here real fast so as you can see
i kind of want to go along right here right off of this level for bounce back up to 140
117 yeah
yep i grabbed that long right there
Oh, quick start to the stream this morning.
We're trying this right here.
Yeah, there we go.
All right.
We'll see if this could change. have a bounce at it early in the day
all right well hold on let me turn on some music. Let's get the stream started. Let me get to check and chat.
Oh, I see you. Yeah, you were short already.
All right.
I'm up 50 points on a trim
all right you're gonna have half here I start to the stream let's go What was in that morning low?
118.
That's another little trim right there.
And 141.
Alright.
Oh, that was a quick start to the stream.
This could easily come right back down.
That's why I trimmed so fast there.
Oh we're up now we're just when he stops up. Stop. Yeah.
I don't even want to test that low again. Oh it stops like way up here. all right well good morning everyone welcome to the stream
that was a quick quick little start there a little quick little start ski
hey you were short at 161 nice
yeah that's basically where we held most of the night i will say last night Hey, you were short at 161. Nice.
Yeah, that's basically where we held most of the night.
I will say last night, as we were coming down.
What does this look like? Oh, yeah.
Same idea. look like oh yeah same idea Where's ES?
So here's what I was looking at on ES.
Last night, NQ took out the low and just, what was it?
That low was at 60. We didn't take out that low until just a couple hours ago.
But on NQ, we did.
That's what I was watching last night.
I shorted the open last night, by the way.
On NQ, I shorted this wick right here, up here.
And pretty much covered everything down here.
And then I called it a night but i'm long right here next target's 115 start running 118 and we'll see if we can hit this 140
and then uh from there we'll see what happens yeah market is right I don't
even looked around the market as the trade was right on top of my face right
there I mean I have looked around the market I haven't called it out for you
guys here VIX is up pretty big everything else is red Tesla's down six
and a half percent the video is down five percent the video is almost 100 Wow I'd felt like this day to get really ugly
really fast
I'm gonna go back to this real fast.
Well, I'm glad I trimmed the way up here, however many points that was. What are you guys watching this morning?
I'm about to get stopped out on the rest of this.
ES, what is yes doing he's still drilling
hold on these some daily charts here I think QQQ has ended up down there at
448 or spy at right now oh yeah
oh yeah it's probably headed down here really soon really really soon all right You can stop me out yet.
It will.
Very soon. All right. I have a level right here.
We'll see.
I don't know if it's going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the bag. Yep, I'm out. All right, well, some green on the board to start the day.
That's always nice. I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag.
I'm going to down in and around.
That's not even bouncing.
You close out? It looks good. Yeah, it went through there.
I mean, I have no support down here.
This thing's probably gone.
I don't even know where.
I mean, really, 448 is my next support on DQQ. I guess I could support off of these highs over here, like right here,
right now. But no, good close out there.
Good close out.
All right, well, how's everyone doing?
We'll take a look at everything here in a minute.
Quick scalp there on the long side.
Now I'm taking a look at what we've got here.
This rejects right here. This thing is gone, gone.
How far does it even take it? Oh goodness gracious. There's the crew trickling in.
Gambling bear.
You hit the 980.
Wow, Walmart screen today. that's a big gap honestly I took that one scalp I honestly don't have uh i don't see a whole lot of good
opportunities here because you're you're breaking down active breakdown longs are tough but it's
already moved pretty far to the downside so i think it's a tough spot for any new positions right now. Until it bases out or reclaims something.
so the idea would be
it's back over like this 20 to 40 it should go test pre-market low on 15.
we'll see what happens though uh we'll take a look at all the edgeful data of course as we always do on the stream happy monday guys i uh those that are
maybe just joining or got here a little bit late i did short last night right at the open uh way up here. Let's see. Let me zoom in.
I shorted into this whole wick up here
and I covered most of it.
I covered most of it on this drop
and then I think I had another
little trim sitting right here.
When this came back
up, I just took the rest off up here.
Had a nice night. I like this long still. and then i i just went when this came back up i just took the rest off up here
had a nice night i don't like this long still
actually i know i like this long still back up into this area
but it's tough it's a tough counter trend trade right now.
Oh, what are you guys doing?
Gambling bear?
Are you still holding any?
I kind of like the long still.
At least to this area. I mean, let me draw a little box. Let's that long plan out.
I wanted to jump back in.
I caught that first decent move.
I wanted to jump back in.
I couldn't after this.
I do think we come back up into this area and then you get smacked down. I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the room. I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the room.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the room.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the room. Thank you. so
Here I am talking on mute, guys.
Well, um, I still like the longs.
Um, just based off this area.
I like this area.
I didn't take the second shot at it.
Yeah. I clicked the mute button on accident my bad my bad um i thought i was
unmuting and i muted and i love that started monday um no i still like the long uh so
i think what gambling bear here is saying here it, it feels like you could get ran over by a freight train trying it.
That's why I took this one pop.
I longed here, and I took off half up here, moved my stop, and when I locked in like 70 points or so,
and then I got stopped out for like 6 points.
So I'll take that trade all day long.
I'll take that win. Now, the key here is like what Gambling Bear is saying. I would want to
look on higher timeframes to reshort. So like this is pre-market low and this is that pivot point.
So that'd be the first area i look for
the second one would be what what sarthak was uh shorting earlier this uh right here 161 this was
kind of the uh the overnight like range area low so like asia low up until what probably around London or above here but like right here from 160
160 to 180's 190's I think right there you you know another possible one
I like this long, this idea worked out.
All right, let me hit some questions, guys.
What are we looking at?
I am waiting.
We got a few more minutes until that 30-minute orb sets.
I feel like everyone came in way too bearish.
Here's your back test.
I think everyone came in way too bearish today.
That usually is the opposite i feel like everybody's
looking at this just going no like this is dead watch us get a v-shape today watch us get a v-shape
watch us watch this little v-shape play out all the way up here
that would be funny right? Let me hit this.
Is that AL or AI?
I can't tell because of the capital letter.
Do you consider the 15 minute FIV extension 2 reached overnight at this point?
Intermediate 4 hour, I'm sawing.
Okay.
Yeah.
So if you look down here and there's the pre-market low target I was looking for.
Yeah, so I have this 6.09.
Here, do you want me to zoom out?
Let me zoom out and show this.
Okay, I was making sure.
I couldn't tell if it was Allerai.
All right, so I drew this.
Here's the swing low. Here's the swing high.
The reason I longed was because we hit the extension. If you don't have this 1.272 extension on here,
I've been using it for quite a while, probably a year and a half or more, almost two years.
And there are always reactions around this level. I really, really like this level.
there are always reactions around this level. I really, really like this level. So, add this to
your tool. Can I show you guys that? Right here, this one right here. Add this one in, 1.272. Add
that one into your tool. I really like it. Now, I can't tell you how many times I've seen it bounce
here and come back test this or come back up to here now of course the traditional
one the 1.618 that's way down here we are probably headed here very soon but
we'll see what happens I just don't know if that's gonna happen today I see a lot
of buying happen a lot of shorts covering those look like a lot of shorts are coming right now.
Boy, Exxon and Walmart,
two American greats. All right.
But yeah, so that's the fib picture.
Oh, what did we just do?
Go back.
Well, that's the fib picture.
We do have this gap to fill up here and this back test that never really happened.
I mean, it happened immediately at the open. That doesn't have to happen, but...
Look at that box rejection.
Anybody short that box rejection?
I do like that call out, though.
It is Al, by the way, for everyone else in the chat.
Appreciate everyone joining us this morning.
Don't be shy.
Jump in the chat.
Let's talk.
I would really need to see a push above like the 140 to 160 and a hold of this 120 before i felt good about it along again Thank you. you got another shot at it gambling bear i think it's still i think it's gonna push up look at this reaction off of this i think we go
back to 340s i know it sounds crazy if anything I would I
would look for these 200s to get tested maybe maybe London London high here Ah, this is a powerful reaction.
I'm telling you, I'm seeing a ton of shorts just covering right now.
Shorts are just like...
I'm out.
Well.
I wasn't going to hold through 50 points of drawdown, but boom.
It's already trimmed, right?
I mean, that was my original risk was right here.
What are my thoughts on HG?
Well, let's go to the daily chart first.
As I do with anything.
Gosh.
New all-time high and a rejection.
Now, that one's tough.
So I tell you what, let me report back to you on that, Al.
I have a friend that comes on Spaces with me all the time that knows this space super well.
Kevin Green. Uh, some of you probably know him. Uh, it's KG Bull and Bear over on, uh, on X.
He is, uh, he's a correspondent for the Schwab network and uh he knows all these commodity markets so well
and metals everything so uh i it would be remiss for me to give you my opinion on hd when i don't
have a super educated point of view from from this ticker or for this uh i guess would be the easiest way to put it.
So yeah, I'm going to punt on that one.
But I will report back.
Let me ask if you want to do something. Go check out it's KG Bull and Bear on X.
That's the man that I would go to.
There's obviously a lot of other really smart people out there too, but that's one of the ones that I would go to. There's obviously a lot of other really smart people out there too, but that's one of the
ones that I would go for.
This from a technical standpoint looks like an ugly shooting star and a continuation down.
This looks like it wants to at least come back down into some moving averages.
Look left over here and I see maybe, and I also see the breakout here because you have like
what top top top top bush higher lows all the way through technically it looks
really good but I would have to get some type of further support but this looks
good now gold is gonna go into a full-on blow off top at some point. All right. all right um
i think i can take this one off now
so i'm gonna mark this on my daily chart here because this was the most recent low.
Or I guess I could do this right here.
At 4.66, I would love to see this.
I mean, we don't have to fill this gap, but I would love to at least see this low back
tested at some point.
That would make the
most sense to me but when you break down you can just break down and just go i mean
i was trying to think of another example like right here y'all see this one right here it's
like we gap down and we broke this low and it was like what, six days later that
we back tested before we moved back further down.
So here would be the example or this one right here.
Gapped down below this low, never made it back and that took quite a while.
That was back in July, if you remember July and August.
We didn't fill this gap right here until what until two months later, over two months later.
So keep that in mind. For gaps, you always mark the spots and just see if it's supposed
to gap, you look for it.
What are the chances of a gap fill, Mr. Crossbar. That is a great question.
On QQQ, it is really bad.
Now, let's look at it a couple ways here. So in general, not in general, let's go to,
let's look at Mondays first.
Gap down on Monday, 73% of the time we're not filling that. That is a strong stat. That's by weekday. By size, what's our size today? 1 point something? 1.5, that's the biggest category. Never been filled.
been filled. So looking for that gap, looking for this level right up here, 468.95 to fill
is a very, very far out cry. Now, could it happen? Crazier things have happened, right?
But you're playing for an outside probability move. Anything, you look for pre-market high or this gap to fill right here where this is
and that's also your back test that previous low 466 this is looking nice All right, there's VWOP, which is basically my ultimate target. Thank you. I'm going to go ahead and get started. Thank you. Thank you. Am I sitting here talking on mute again?
That got a comment.
That's twice.
That time I clicked anything.
I think it just went back to mute.
Crossbar, did you hear me when I went over those gap fill stats?
If not, I'll jump back to them.
I don't know how long I was muted for there.
I'll just jump back to them.
So the QQQ gap fill is by size it's zero percent chance it's
just never filled a gap of that size Mondays also very very low percentage
when you gap down on a Monday you've only filled 73 percent of the time so
that's that's the two two caveats there okay you did hear it i don't know how long
that thing went back to mute on so i'm that wasn't me that maybe i didn't do it earlier either maybe
some kind of some kind of hot key i hit or what i did all right um
yeah that's the uh that's the stat of the day right there.
Monday gap downs, only a 27% chance of filling and then add in the size of the gap as a chance.
That's two strong stats and we're not going to go fill it.
Costco, it's a little gap by the way.
Purple, gap fill?
Yes. Purple Green. Interesting. Is anything else even close to
green? Well, Walmart is absolutely screaming. Look at these retail names are doing very very interesting all right um
always spy prime ejects right here
oh anybody short that vwalk 160 that was your level who um
oh anybody short that vwop 160 that was your level who um
sarthak that was your level did you take a second shot at it 161
if we see capitulation do we see 17k i mean it's very very possible. Okay, so let's look at that, actually.
So capitulation would mean we are completely like, people are scared, right?
And too many people trying to buy the dip again.
I don't know.
I definitely can see us coming back down here until 18.5.
I definitely think this is probably our next stop.
Because when I look at this, that's very possible.
If we got really cranking, we could definitely come down to this area.
If we got really cranking.
But I think it's going to take more than just what's currently
happening right now it's just uncertainty right and we know tariffs are gonna i mean tariffs are
a big thing but we just there's no way of knowing what what's going on there's just no way uh let
me pull up spx because i was looking at this. This was interesting as well.
This was kind of like your little cup and handle and then your breakout.
I think we can see this 52, which was the highs from a year ago.
This is where we stalled out last year around this time. I think we could see this pretty easily if we go much lower here
now big caveat here right tuesday or i'm sorry wednesday so two days from now april 2nd is uh
the day that all this stuff goes into play right now we have a lot of a lot of stuff to deal with
very soon a lot more information getting thrown at the market.
And honestly, kind of ever-changing information.
Like what's actually going to happen?
What is actually going to go into effect?
Like who actually knows, right?
Like that's the big caveat here. Costco, Home Depot, and of course Walmart in a sea of red.
of red wow we're gonna need more winning gambling bear uh you mentioned celh boy
Wow.
talking about something that has got no love
and i see a red look at this nice curl to the chart the reclaim of the 200 day
oh is celsius actually along now look at this thing it's actually going through the 200 day everything else is losing the 200 day celsius is regaining it. I'm going to go ahead and get a little bit of a little bit of a little bit of a little bit. that five minute looks disgusting but we are trying to hold pre-market low right here but
i got no faith in it
spy done much better there's a sole yes doing so this 560 on ice was the previous low five this right here this was uh there you go a couple weeks ago
on thursday that was the low that's kind of a reclaim
yes holds to 60 maybe a long es that would be the reclaim of the previous flow from two weeks ago
interesting I'm gonna check my screener on the oh we're looking at the first
half hour still closed red did it see 15 and 15 this was red
we'll see because i want to see what these the first half hour first hour candle if we close
below this level right here on spy it's bearish on qqq it's still bearish no matter what,
unless we get it back up here.
This is VWAP on QQQ. Hmm. All right, I'm going to adjust this box to here.
Based off of that right there.
So this is kind of that Asia low low to pre-market low here Mm. hmm let's say is it anything else look decent out here
maybe old YM's do we go over to the Dow?
Microsoft looks like it's about to make a new low.
Apple's making new highs.
Nvidia looks gross.
Broadcom looks gross. Broadcom looks gross. Amazon kind of looks gross. Microsoft looks
really gross. Meta looks okay. Some of these like really beaten up names amd looks okay
the three worst ones up here on my screen watching
Oh, she shorted here at this beautiful short.
160.
Probably would have tried it here originally, maybe again here.
I mean, you could take three shots at this thing and one of them was going to pay out
nicely. one of them was gonna pay out nicely
I hear what I'm looking at on spy this pre-marget low right here we did get our first step uh no we didn't get our first hour yet did we no not yet so
I really want a long yes right here
somebody tell me not to I will maybe watch see the whole turf I just think you could potentially long yes right here. Yeah.
You're going yes right there. Alright, I just took a little longer and yes, we'll just try it.
Why not? all right well I'm
I'm long ES, about for 60.
No, I'm videos about to die. Oh, five point risk.
You lived in PR for three years?
A lot of New York people go down there to PR.
What is this?
54. Thank you. I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag. Все. The problem is we got all this bear's data.
Two minutes here.
Let's see if we can get a quick little pop on yes we can get back to 69 I will trim it this 29 What does my wrist reward look like? I really don't think that can actually hold.
Microsoft made a new low.
Amazon's about to make a new low.
My video's right at the lows, so is Bromhms yeah I don't want anything to do
long song to you anymore on you maybe you should go along YM today
all right so there's our first hour let's see if we get a little pop here to get some trims off but
that first hour is going to be bearish because we we opened here and closed here first hour is
bearish on es and spy uh first hour is bearish on queues big time first half hour was as well
yeah so we're going to have two strikes
that gets us there
some data just came out that I forgot about
alright nine points right there I took my first turn
on a yes. Let's see if we can get to that 72 or pi.
We'll go ahead and take a second to run just because I know I'm trading against data right
now and then I'll take a look at the data Come on, pop it up to 72.
Pop it up, pop it up, pop it up.
Look at this, finding winners on the long side in a terribly down market. 10 points on a yes is nothing if you guys don't if you guys normally trade in Q and
you never show you yes 10 points is nothing to scoff at I'm gonna go ahead and smack my second trim here at a or pie on yes 72 Come on, fill me.
All right, there's my fill at 72.
I'm out two-thirds of the ES Long.
That's 12 points.
Well, my average is 61 so it's
11 points for me all right guys I don't want to trim any of 70.
Is that right there?
Nice.
Nice.
I like that.
What was the, I don't know what, I don't know what I don't know what this fair
value gap whatever I didn't really see one in this area come on new high of day
well there's 20 points.
I guess I'll trail my stop up here.
I mean, I had break even Boom!
Let's go. I would love to see this pop to the fries I I don't know if we have the
the horses to do that today though even even to get to Friday's lows we got a long that's a lot of work to do on spying CQQs even worse
oh you're using that joint yeah okay I know which one you're talking about I
I'm just I'm not a big fair value gap guy I spot some that I do like I don't kind of use as like
targets like for trims and stuff so you like the music I tell you what I cannot
sit here on stream without that background music it is it just gets so
quiet and boring I've got to have some kind of little rhythm going in the background how often am I live like this twice a
week so Fridays is pretty much set and I think Monday's is gonna be set now
going forward so yeah at least twice a week as far as live treating here on
edgeful and will financial at least twice a week as far as live trading here on Edgeful and Wolf Financial.
At least twice a week for two hours, which we are just over an hour in.
So we still got some time to go.
I got started right as the market opened today.
Just because I knew I traded last night, I didn't want to do anything until at least the market got open.
Which actually was stream.
I was like taking an entry which is
wild rare but uh yeah
beautiful trade there al beautiful beautiful beautiful who else we got uh i think we break
175 we can run up to 240s uh yeah let's see If you get over this, which is that IB high, that first hour high,
which you're going to break one side of the other. Kind of that one's going to break.
I don't know, though. What does SPX look like?
That's a lot of upper wicks in this 15 minute I
Would love to get to here though that would just be I mean a 50 point move I think that's asking for too much
Yep, I think that's gonna be too much to ask I
Don't know if I like this. All the growth names, all the tech
names look pretty rough. We've got a long ways to go on this daily candle. As long as we hold SPX and I think we're good Thank you. Breaks about 5440
and there's a good chance.
Yeah.
Look how much stronger spy is
oh my stronger The problem is it's the tech names that look like just dog stuff. so on that es trade right looking back at that real fast thanks crossbar appreciate the uh
the kind work see this i see this line right here i drew I drew this earlier in the stream today because I knew that my previous low from whatever, two weeks ago, almost three weeks ago, was 560, right?
So we went through that, grabbed liquidity, came back over it, and came back and I said, look, I can long here on a reclaim and look for a hold here, right?
And look what it looks like over to it you see
we came down to it right there boom held it you take it long and take your shot
off of a reclaim so for me that was a reclaim of the low and it worked out
that noise workout but it's a tight wrist reward that you can run there
because that thing that thing comes through here. You can have a
You know five six point stop maybe even a ten point stop for a 20 30 point move
I don't know I like you have a decent risk reward trade there you really don't want to lose this
Where's you up?
68 I'm probably gonna put my stop in
that area 56 I mean I'm sorry 66 I'm probably gonna put my stop right up in
here
and Q so looks like a short I see a question here what exchange am I using
I'm I'm trading so right now I just show on stream I just show my charts
because I do all my charting here I just execute on the. I just show my charts because I do all my charting here. I just execute on
the other platforms
I am a live
Live trader for top step. So I have a live account there, which is
You know, there's like the eval they call combine level then you have the funded level
Which is XFA with them and then you live, which is where they move you up.
You have, they combine all your accounts.
It's, you're trading real life money on the real exchange.
So I use Top Step X through them.
I also have a funded account through Tradeify
that I trade on Tradeavate.
So those are the two that I use for trading futures.
Most of my long-term stuff,
I use obviously other platforms for.
Honestly, I need to kind of consolidate
and rework a lot of that stuff
because I've got some stuff in Weevil,
some stuff in Robinhood.
I think I have an R-A-R-N-T-O-S actually so it's funny you mentioned all three of those. I have all
I do have all three of these that you've mentioned here but I do have a game plan for this year
during this pullback. I actually just need to consolidate and rework my entire long-term strategy.
But the first step is just getting invested, right?
Especially if you're a trader and you're starting to make gains,
once you become profitable, you need to take some of those profits,
put them into a long-term account, no matter where it is or what it is.
I'd be by rejection mixed bag here of course
previous days range is going to be all rough except costco we're still looking okay on es
it looks like a flag off of the emas if i'm being 100 honest here
honest here blue is nine yamay and it looks like a little flag here
or what I say 61 was an actual average once I got on my fills in. The problem is I've got to know that I'm
trading counter trend. That's why I'm already, that's why two quick trims and I'm already
moving my stop up into profit because I know I'm long against all this bearish, bearish bearish bearish bearish IV hasn't broken yet but I know all that is bearish
what's and I know this gap fill is going to be bearish look at all bearish on the gap fill over
here where's that open candle continuation? Yeah.
I know I'm triggering against a lot of data. Honestly, at some point you probably look to go back short just based on that.
But for me, I've got a reclaim here, so I want to look for up here. Thank you. there we go there we go
yeah sorry I am not sponsored by any prop firms I don't have any deals worked out with any prop firms.
So I want to make that clear.
I just call out, just being a real person, real trader here, I just call out what I'm
actually using right now.
That's the ones that I use.
So yeah, no problems or anything.
I won't talk bad about any prop firms.
I won't pump up any prop firms.
I will just give you my honest opinion of what I use and I won't go bad about any prop firms. I won't pump up any prop firms. I will just give you my honest opinion of what I use.
And I won't go any further than that.
So if you're looking for reviews or anything like that,
I mean, that's not my place, not my thing.
And we'll see what happens.
I don't like how that just popped up there
and I got slapped a little bit but this 15 minutes still looks kind of rough here
still looks a little bit rough here on in queue but it's boom boom. Maybe you come take out this IB high.
You should break one side or the other of the IB.
Yeah, if you break this, then you go try to break
you probably go wick up here into the 200.
Maybe you get
what was all
what was this area? Yeah, 200.
A lot of rejections
up here, 220. I don't know.
It feels like it wants to move out Costco is absolutely fine Продолжение следует... All right. So one thing I'm looking at here, QQQ and SPY, do the same if you're trading in Q or yes.
This IB, still break one side or the other.
We're pretty close here.
It looks like it wants to go break this first.
So if you're trying to short,
I think I would wait for it to wick this.
The reason I say that is because most of the time you break,
we're closest to this one.
And the price action looks like we want to go like wick
this. Before, I would feel better if it whipped up here and rejected. Because the stats tell
me that we broke it on ES already or on SPY. We up 20 something points on the yes this is a good morning let's go let's go oh yeah no
worries uh no worries it so that wasn't directed at you i just i had i make that comment in general
it's just part of me being transparent and honest um i just make that comment in general why I'm at it I guess
I should also make the comment of course as always nothing here is investment
advice or recommendation to buy or sell any instrument or security at all.
Entertainment and educational purposes only.
Investing involves risk. Okay, well that's out of the way.
All right, now what do we do?
That's the real question.
We're kind of stuck here.
Third rejection at VWAP.
If you stop making higher lows.
So the way I look at this is,
if you're looking at,
if you're looking at this now,
you really need to kind of hold this.
Microsoft just made a new low.
Yep, I don't want this coming any lower.
If it comes below this on yes I'll get stopped out for the last piece. On NQ, you've had one, two, three shots at this with this low, higher low.
You've got a higher low here.
I would say you've got to hold this midpoint of the 30 minute orb, 85, outer VWAP band 78.
You really need to hold that area right here.
This area right here.
I already have both on my screen.
I don't know if that makes it hard for you guys to see. No it shouldn't uh if if we're if we're being 100 100 honest here
if i go to here i gotta make this bigger for you guys
uh if i go to spy a spy our gap fill data is bearish we actually have a bullish IB by rejection
bearish here bearish here but bullish on ib bullish yeah that first hours is kind of a
mixed bag so it's a big chop recipe i think you're gonna still see shorts covering unless
this actually breaks down you already broke the ib high here. So the chances of reversal for new low are actually pretty low on SPY.
But the chances of filling this gap up here are rough.
Here, let me hit detailed view.
So your gap size is 1%.
Look at this, 100% of the time, 100% not filled.
Let me go to the actual report. So, SPY, we looked at QQQ gap fill stats earlier.
Let's look at SPYs. So, I'm on Edgeful, obviously. I'm on gap fill. Can you guys see this okay?
Back off just a little bit. Okay. I'm on gap fill. I'm on SPY.
Okay, I'm on gap fill.
I'm on spy.
If I go by weekday, that's one way to look at it.
A little hanging man there on the five minute.
64 versus 36% Mondays.
If you gap down, 64% of the time you don't go fill it.
Okay, by size, 100% of the time you don't fill it's so tough so i i'm looking at two things here
i'm looking at price action telling me things look kind of decent here but i'm also looking at the
data telling me that i should not be trying to play
a whole lot of longs here especially unless i was long so i had the one scenario that i was long
which was this previous low price action is not really telling me to short but data is telling me to short so
honestly i took the one shot that i wanted to take or two shots i wanted to take so far this
morning i longed off of this for this bounce and uh this actually turned into an even better move
and then uh i longed off of this reclaim. I'm pretty much good now.
Last night, I shorted the open knowing that the news was bad,
knowing that we had broke under on NQ under the low.
This same reclaim of this low,
it was the breaking of this that I shorted on NQ last night. I don't even know what this trend line's from. When did I draw that trend
line? Here's that previous low right here though. Boom. When we opened up my gap below this and immediately rejected it i
shorted last night so it was like 345 on nq so last night we uh see we opened the candle here 320
i shorted here in this area and then wrote it down so i've got three winning trades on the board for today
no need to uh no need to push anything especially with this price action
and you've got some major divergence here because spy is over basically over those pre-market high
it's not quite i mean i guess technically you would call so the majority of the highs here we're over that right now right at
it but we didn't quite get up here to this high so this would be like London
high on on yes or that's your full pre-market high but I'm QQQ all your
highs up here in this area we're not even close not even close so no ads for me no
uh no further trims or anything no new trades no new entries right now as long as we're in this area
very bad uh yeah very bad area not fun not fun
If you fail this, I think you go look for new lows on EQ.
But ES has been something completely opposite.
Sitting above orb high looks good on ES.
This is why I'm long yes and not in queue because this setup this reclaim of the low
and we're stronger so the the divergence is in my favor on es
I'm about to move up my stop again just to start locking in some more profit. Thank you. Go, yes, go.
Go, yes, go.
There we go. Push.
I'm really ashamed of that 95, shouldn't I? Don't you know, pump it up, it needs to go above it.
TLT falling.
Dollar pushed.
What's the 10 you're doing?
This is going to be a complete just, what do we call this an S show.
Complete S show. I have a feeling this 91 is going to be an issue. I kind of want to...
I don't have a whole lot of ammo left to trim.
Just move up some stops here.
25 points though. we're cooking. Thank you. Still struggling hard right here really don't want this coming back under 80 Honestly, I think I want to move my stop up here.
Lock in 20 points just because we're coming into a tough area.
20 points on yes is nothing to be upset about.
Yeah, I really don't want this coming any lower.
Just because we're in, look at this, we're just chilling now.
What else is moving today?
Anything?
Boy, all these growth names just getting absolutely smoked.
There we go.
Push.
Watch this right here. There we go, push.
Watch this right here.
Yes, this is like 90, 91. I'm trolling my stop up. How's everyone doing? Does everyone do it?
Are we just hanging out?
Did you guys catch any longs with me?
Are you looking to short?
I just think you're definitely in a tough spot here.
No, I definitely couldn't do any new trades.
Maybe a short off of this IB rejection.
Wick up here.
Or 63 maybe.
All right.
This is that area right here.
Probably just trail the stop up. let's go up to like 84
86 i'm locking in 25 points no matter what here 86 stops
all right let's move my stop up yeah all the way 86 on ES. I'm locking in 25 points no matter what.
Probably going to get stopped on this candle.
Boom, I'm out.
All right, I'm out. Thank you. Well, that might have been a hell of an exit right there. All right, I am
I'm flat as the earth, guys.
guys.
Boy, we couldn't wake up a little bit higher
on PQQ there.
This 15-minute
candle. Ooh, it could get ugly.
I'm not ready to go short,
but I want to look short.
Look at this.
Maybe you get one more push. This is starting to look like shorting Q times. Look at this.
Maybe you get one more push.
This is starting to look like shorting cue times. so all right well from this spot right here which
you could have got 30 points 31 I guess 30 points total I'm good if I
take 25 out of 30 points on a range I'm actually happy with that. I think NQ is probably a short right here.
All right. I'm going to pull back into NQ here because that's what i focus on the most i just
saw better opportunities to like the little teaching point for me es was much stronger
than inq and es had the setup so i went and longed es i do not like how inq and all the
big tech names are lagging right now with this maybe i short
look at this this is like basically all your overnight highs maybe it can get to 95 96
on es i don't need to find out about five more points i took my shot i took my win.
Really.
If I'd won three trades in a row at this point,
I would be sorting in queue probably right here.
Yeah, in queue looks like a fat short right now,
but I can't do it. Thank you. I'm not sure what you're talking about. I'm not sure what you're talking about.
I'm not sure what you're talking about.
I'm not sure what you're talking about.
I'm not sure what you're talking about.
I'm not sure what you're talking about.
I'm not sure what you're talking about.
I'm not sure what you're talking about.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. Let's go. I don't know, we're in it's got Spot.
Let me go back to what's in play over here.
I do like this new detailed view.
So like if I'm on the simple view of what's in played, I can see bearish, bullish, bullish, bearish, bearish, choppy.
So notice the difference here. So SPY has some bullish divergence.
QQQ on the other hand, neutral bearish bearish bearish bearish.
This is why we want to short end Q here instead of ES. Anybody taking the NQ short for me?
I'm just curious.
What the hell?
I just don't want to take on the additional risk.
I'm up big today. Oh my coffee.
Coffee just hits harder on Mondays.
You held the bottom of this box though.
Basically holding pre-market low. Thank you. So what do you do here? Is that VWAP? Which one? This is VWAP right here. Where NQ just keeps rejecting, this is NQ's VWAP.
I have QQQ sitting above VWAP.
Obviously ES is sitting above.
I'll throw ES back on here.
ES's VWOP is right here.
I guess blowing ES shorting Q and just see which one wins.
Perish, Perish trade.
Perish trade.
Nobody wants to perish trade?
That's all right.
I mean, I'm not taking it.
I'm probably...
I may be done for the rest of the day Let's hitting though.
How about that? I'm not a fan of this at all.
Either side. I'm going to draw these boxes.
It's been fun. I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag.
I'm going to go ahead and put it in the bag. Thank you. So, yeah, so I still want to see this IB break right here.
If you need to break one side or the other.
Spy right over that area, or yeah, just looking over this area into this gap
oh glad I didn't take the short but I will say this on yes if I would have I
would just put my stop up here like it right
under 80 I would have got wicked out even at 7 gate only I wicked out by tech
that would have made me mad
Alright, that's the wick over. I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the room. so
so I just had a feeling everyone that was so bearish coming in today, you know how much
people chase shorts this morning.
This makes perfect sense. So There would have been full target on yes if I held, but I'm going to go ahead and put it in the middle of the bag. if anybody held yes that was full target
gambling bears make it a good point here
rips on hole 12, okay?
Six more holes, we'll start getting some.
He may be almost on.
He's probably 17, 18.
Maybe head it back to the clubhouse. Thank you. All right.
I think I've gone over pretty much the plan.
That was full target for ES Long for me.
Probably rejects here. I think you've got a high chop risk now.
You've reclaimed some stuff. You're not even close to reclaiming. You'd have to get all the way up
here. 345 on NQ to try to think about a reclaim. I would need it to come up here into this area to short 320 to 345 to short.
Unless you short right here right now, I guess.
But the problem is price action's up.
ES played out.
You probably reject here.
If not, about 15 points higher is what I have next.
But that's my time this morning.
Spider Kid, I saw you sneak in here
at the end of the stream.
Appreciate you coming by.
That's it for me. I'm probably
not going to do much trading the rest of the day.
I'm being 100% honest. Three wins,
no losses. One from
last night, two from this morning on the stream.
Yeah, be careful out there guys.
Everyone in the world was bearish.
Hold on, I gotta sneeze.
Hold on, hold on, hold on.
Everyone in the world was bearish this morning.
Somehow fought off that sneeze.
Probably a lot of people,
you know, a lot of people probably chased shorts
this morning
the problem with that is
anybody that was already short
especially looking at the daily and stuff from last week
anybody that swung this short
they're taking profit down here
and anybody else on SPY
that saw this low
right here open
and reclaimed
they probably got long or closed out any shorts
so now you've had short covering do you come back down i don't know if i knew that answer
i'd be in a trade but i'm not uh but yes played out for me.
We're failing orb and IB high here.
Probably a short.
So yeah, I don't know.
Guys, make sure you go try out Edgeful, of course, edgeful.com.
That's where I'm getting all this data.
That's where I get all of this analysis.
That's where I get half of these indicators,
more than half of these indicators
that I use every single day.
Build out my game plan.
I wanna trade with the data on my side.
I know on this counter trend trade,
I'm trading against data.
So that's why I'm out. I know we looked at those probabilities earlier, that gap fill probability,
very, very rough to try to get to the upside. Very, very rough. But the situational awareness
is telling you, look, we're right at the open on QQQ. Situational awareness is telling me I don't really want to be
a part of anything else.
Look at this. We broke that IB to the upside.
Like I said, it wicked it. If it comes back down,
I think this is a short.
That's just my thoughts. I think this is
a short on NQ.
ES much
stronger. Maybe you don't short it.
Or if you short it off 5600,
you trim back into these highs, pre-market highs so you shorted this that's basically the
almost even the gap fill isn't it goodness gracious so which that's a rare
we didn't fill the gap but that would be rare to even fill it so here rejection boom come back down targets 81 75 to 77 and
then if you can get back down here yeah that's it for me guys I'm out I'm done
for the day probably on trading I've got a lot of spaces content coming up on
Wolf Financial of Of course, make
sure you check us out over there. I'll be back Friday live stream right here. I'm working
on getting another stream in here somewhere this week as well. We'll see what happens.
But that's it, guys. I hope everyone has a great, great, great, great rest of their Monday.
Be careful out there. Don't push the guests on anything. Hope everyone is doing well.
Hope everyone's green. Hope everyone is profitable. Adios, primo. Ya me voy. Ya me voy, Spider Kid.
But I appreciate everyone that came by. Crossbars, appreciate you. Al was in the chat this
morning. Gambling Bear, of course. Spider Kid snuck in at the end. Us all fancy ballers came in.
Sarthak was in here early.
Sarthak nailed the short right when I opened up the stream.
Appreciate you coming by as well.
I think E-Tech was in here.
Who else came by this morning?
Some other people come in a little bit earlier in the day.
But anyways, appreciate everyone that stopped by.
And that's it for the stream this morning.
Take care of all. Have a great, great, great day. We'll see you for sure on Friday. Don't forget
Edgeful. Andre is coming on Wednesday mornings, live trading on Wolf Financial on Spaces on X.
So make sure you're around for that. We do have live trading, all of those.
So make sure you're around for that.
We do have live trading.
All of those.
Yes.
All right, guys.
I'm out.
Peace.
