Hey everybody, thanks for joining us here this afternoon. We're gonna give it a couple minutes for folks to join the room for Nico to join us get him up on stage while we've got while we wait. Let's check out some tips.
All right, all right. I think we can start things off. Hello everybody. Welcome to Lucky Trader Conversations. I'm your host Tyler D. I'm very excited this afternoon to be hosting Nikolai Yakovenko.
Today we're talking all about 3 AC Grails, their surprising performance, and if it's driving this resurgence in the broader gin art market that we've been seeing here today. On the docket, we're going to be talking a recap of the auction, some collection history
from the 3 AC Grails what Nico's model got right, what it got wrong and some future predictions. Nico welcome to show how you do it. Good, good, just got back from the gym. Still pretty pumped about this big grailsail on Friday and you know definitely excited to talk about our blogs and like
of surgeons of interest in these things. Yeah. It's really exciting. I think it caught a lot of us off guard. So I want to dive right into the conversation. Before we do that, let's do a quick intro. So this is actually the second time I've hosted Niko first time for a longer conversation. So he is the
founder of deep in and T value, what I consider to be the best and premiering in a T valuation platform. He's a deep learning researcher self described LLM poet when he's not working. He spends his time in South Beach with Jiu Jitsu running in Beach time. It looks like a pretty great life. So Nika, do you want
Maybe just a quick intro, a quick background for those listeners who may not know your story. Yeah, so I've been in tech for a long time. My first job was working on Google search ranking right out of college. It's pretty lucky there. Kind of was always dabbling in machine learning for games and
things like that, kind of like since I was a kid who wanted to, you know, write robots to play games. So, you know, I've been fortunate that a lot of my sort of like, you know, a lot of my dreams and tech are coming true, including obviously some of this like AI, you know, language modeling stuff. You know, so that's pretty exciting. And then, you know,
We have been doing deep NFT value, started up as a side project doing that for Gs. Going on more than two years now, it became known for modeling punk's prices and have added a lot of other collections since then, including the art blocks. Just a small caveat.
for the art blocks are not currently on the website. They will be soon. I can sort of explain later why, you know, sort of a stupid imperfection isn't thing. But I did publish some prices, put that on a spreadsheet, specifically for the three AC things. But if you want to see how we value every single art blocks, that's coming optimistically this week. Again, I can get into why that's kind of a difficult problem.
Yeah, we'll get into the R block's valuations here in a bit. Maybe let's just start with Southern Bees Grails reaction. So you've been following this closely. I know you did an initial blog post right up back in October.
October, then on the 19th, you did kind of a full deep dive with some predictions. So I just love it. And you go, what were your reactions to how the semifinals early auctions played out? Yeah. So, you know, we wrote about this first in October, like you said, when it sort of became obvious, this is going to happen.
and I guess I got dragged out to probably nobody surprised, but just to give perspective on the collections that we cover, which is basically the art blocks, the punks, and the auto glyphs, we're covering 88 NFTs, which 3AC and their associates bought for
around 10,000 teeth. And one of the points I made in October is that actually at the time they were up in the earth terms, surprising many people, they just sort of assumed, hey, they bought it at the peak, everything's down. But I don't think that's true because actually we're getting some more of this later, but 3AC actually bought a lot of these
pre-peak. Like for densities, for example, came in two waves. One of them, they got before the peak and the other ones, they got like you could see at the peak. Again, their punks they bought for, I think, when punks were in the 30s and 40s, basically, which is still higher than they
So anyway, so October we were actually still showing them being up on paper. When I read those numbers last week, you know, they were down substantially where they were at something like 6,700 teeth, although obviously a little bit better in dollar terms since then. So we hadn't projected, you know, if they were to sell
these things that we thought would be fair auction prices, we would be, hey, they're not taken abath exactly, but they're down substantially, you know, maybe 40% on what they would have been in October. And obviously, if those are following the auction, you know, auction, very much outperforms expectations. Now, of course, they beat their official estimates,
But everyone knows that auctions tend to put the estimates artificially low for various reasons. I don't know because I don't know on auctions. But as far as realistic estimates that I was posting, and probably what others were posting, it was still a pretty big beat. We'll get into that in a second, but obviously the biggest beat by far, the entire beat.
really came from that one item, right? The 10s of 725 went for the equivalent of 560 ETH including fees, which is about 3x will be projected. The other ones were also all beats, but not nearly by the sale amount. In fact, everything else is pretty reasonable, but that was a huge beat and I wanted them really.
Yeah, I think a few things to unpack one when I was going through your blog post and I read it several times today to try to get you know a real handle on how this all went down One is the striking difference and values from October to May and just just how far
or something's have fallen. But in your early commentary, I think that the broad assumption was that sorry, night three, I see that just overpaid for everything because of some of the valuations, like the golden goose. But to your point, that's just not the case. They got in a pretty good price.
on a lot of these. And it is interesting to see that they were actually up solid amount back in October. But then of course your valuation drops by about 50%. I want to talk through those and how some of those collections held up better
than others. So what do you think? Because we just dive right in and start going through some of your detail analysis. I actually like how you've laid it out in the post. We kind of just start walking through some of your thought process as you were kind of laying out how you thought this would play out. Yeah. So I mean, I think
Let me just sort of say one thing and then maybe if you have comments or questions in the post that might be better than me reading my post. But just echo in what you're saying. I wish I had a good graph to display, but I'm just scrolling through it. And if you look at their Fudenza entry prices, I have this in the Google Doc that's actually a year-old publicly.
The cheapest fadenza that they bought was actually for $12.00. Just to give you an idea. They bought, let's see, three, they bought, I think, four fadenzas under $40.00. Just to give you an idea. They definitely bought some fadenzas in the hundreds, for sure. The goose was an interesting case because they bought that one for $18.00.
as a ringer, and that is depending how you count, but like 15%, 18% of the whole portfolio. So like a massive percentage of the portfolio. But it's actually kind of a, you know, I mean, you can sort of find a spreadsheet. It's a publicly viewable, it's linked in the blog, but basically like it really is an interesting bi-strategy where they bought a couple of grails.
bought a bunch of mids and then they also got a bunch of random stuff when, you know, that was like from good collections of good prices. So, um, but yeah, what's stuck out here in the blog? What do you want to talk about? Well, first of all, let's take a look at the difference in valuation
from October to May. And if any of those stuck out to you. So just like, for example, Fadinza's back in October, the four is 87 was down to 43 as a Friday, of course, we've seen. I don't mean to interrupt, but I just want to be very clear with people. So like when I say floor, most people say they think it's the floor. And that's true for like,
for like a pung or something on blur right now for something you liquid like the dancers or ringers it's not the actual floor it's basically you look at the lower bound to what things are selling for so for right now like today is a great example so if you go in our site or anywhere else like right like we're gonna show okay today between the last 24 hours right like
We've had a flurry of Fadenza sales, which is rare, six of them, right? And they sold for in the 50s and in the 60s. So our model would say, okay, a basic Fadenza, if you wanted to sell it, the lower bound is about 55, right? So that's what we use as the floor. And if you look at before the auction, if you look at over the past month, two weeks#
where were the ends going? Well, they were going for 42, 43. There were sales 42, 43, 46. So that's what we mean by floor. The floor can actually be 90, but no one's buying at that point. So not to excuse at all, but right now it's clearly up, right? But I think it is just a bit of a fact of the market that two weeks ago, if you wanted to sell
your for denser like quickly you would expect to get around 43 today that value is about 55 so it's gone up a little bit but not a lot and that number was 88 in in in October you know basically is what I'm saying so guys that just wanted to clarify that yeah no thank you that is good clarification so we're not talking true floor
or like OpenC floor rather. We're talking about what you can reasonably expect. - What you're gonna get if you sell your basic for thenza, you know, like I'm not even saying the worst one in the collection either is just being, but like I have a generic for thenza, I wanna sell it, what am I gonna get today? - Well, yeah. We have it at 44, 43 I mean today at 55.
got it. So when I'm looking at these collections, certainly some have held up better than others across the last six months. Do you have any takeaways or reactions to how some of these collections have held up stronger and maybe surprises? Yeah.
Yeah, I'd love to hear more. Yeah, I mean, I think that I mean one thing that's one collection. I just don't understand very well as auto glyphs, but they seem you know, they trade very rarely, but that seems to be very solid. You know, in October, we had that around 147 going into this. We had that at 155. We projected the
auto glyph that was on sale on 5/8 to sell for 200, it went for 300. Again, I'm not really an expert, I can't really explain why, but it just, you know, we had another auto glyph today yesterday, I mean, over the weekend, that went for 155. So like, it seems to be auto glyphs are just like very steady and 150 for months now, you know, it's kind of interesting#
punks obviously as we know went from 66. There were really really steady around 66 for months and now they've sold off to you know we have around 50 but that's not really a big gap. I mean the big collapse was really probably in ringers 1 from 53 to like 23 although I think we probably overestimated that. I mean the ringer is out for four
and they're up substantially now. I think realistically our 23 number may be a little low. But the real collapses in things like subscapes and archetypes and things like that. They're not doing particularly well.
your thoughts. And I think this is kind of a deeper conversation. Do you feel like the drops are just tied to general art market drawdown lack of liquidity? Or is there a bit of some collections may have been back in favor in
2021 but have fallen out a favor, maybe it may never return. I think there's general consensus that Fidensis fell with the market. They are going to go back. I think that's general community sentiment. But I'm not sure that you can say that about all of the collections. So I'm curious as you can start to dive in and model some of these, do
What do you think about some of the drivers here in what we've seen? Sure. So, I mean, first, in terms of opinion, this is just not really my opinion, what a lot of people think. Obviously, the world was in love with our blocks once in 2021. The fall of our blocks, whatever you want to call it.
got up to very large amount, people are like, there's a small supply, these are very cool, these are obviously the best things, and you know, that interest waned over time. At the same time, like, you know, it is an art movement that's a piece in time. I mean, if you want to compare this, and like the impression is, right, like that was an art movement, you know, center in Paris, and,#
And it was around for a couple of decades. It was pretty cool. And once it was over, it was over. If say Utah or decided to draw red and wire style paintings, that would not be considered an impressionist, no matter how good it is, because that time is over. Right? I think there's like a now that artplacism becomes historical. And obviously by artplacism, we meet.
curated art blocks of that vintage. There's still new art blocks, some members still pretty cool, the harvest is pretty cool. But I think the only collection that really has a true argument to join these original art blocks for a more recent thing is probably the anti-cyclomes. That's probably the only one. But generally people
people really mean that vintage of early art blocks the best ones there. So I think the argument there for a collector standpoint is that, sure, they're off peak, but over time they sort of gain more and more providence historical value. They're not going to make any more of them. They are representatives of that movement. Kind of like people collecting freshness paintings and they are
valuable, they'll continue to be valuable and even like a crappy Renoir, so to speak. There's a great Instagram account, like Renoir's sucks at painting. These examples of terribly executed pieces of the painting with the guys like, "Ah, I'm going to pretend I'm at the base." But it doesn't matter, right? It's Renoir's part of movement. Obviously, there's better and worse
wars, but like a flora and war still goes for a lot. And that's going to appreciate over time, you know, even though there was obviously a dip, you know, so I think that's sort of the argument. I mean, I know I'm not obviously not going to name anybody, but I mean, I know a lot of the collectors and the bitters and these auctions. And I've spoken to them and, you know, some of#
We're only interested in fadensis and ringers and argueps. And in my books, of course, I get that sentiment a lot, actually. And it's not that the other ones aren't cool, but they're like, look, these are like the best stuff. They're the most collectible. They're the things that sort of have a potential to cross over. If you look at what prices people pay in the traditional art market for,#
about for like a bisque and things like that. The best modern artists from several decades ago, there's highly sought after, there were pieces go for very large amounts. They're like, "Hey, who among this art movement is going to join it?"
the content is probably going to be like punks and fadenzas and and by ringers and and auto bliffs and then it gets a little bit bassy. Yeah, and that's what I'm just super interested in. Of course, we're not going to get the answers yet. We can speculate and have our own. Yeah, give us five to 10 years. Right. But it matters for those of us right who are
trying to place our bets right now and who may not have unlimited bankrolls. So it has been very interesting to watch, you know, which of these kind of OG, our blocks collections are really considered to be in that that grail conversation in which might be outside or fall from
But I think we can maybe come back to that in a bit. Nico, maybe kind of walk through your decision to even attempt to model art and some of the challenges or how you adapted the model for more of a PFP based foundation. Yeah, so it's fundamentally very simple.
I'll just tell you what ended up going with the process of how we got there. The thing about PFPs is you can model them on traits. You can say, "Look, alien plunks are going for this much. What's the premium over floor? Is that trending up or down?" You can think about it that way.
obviously much more complicated than that, but which you can't think of it that way. You can think about our blocks that way to a limited extent, but it doesn't really work, right? Like deciding, you know, okay, well, you know, the trait is like this palette or that color, it kind of breaks down. And also,
So you have just significantly fewer items and significantly significant at the fewer transactions, different kind of collectors, higher fusing royalties generally speaking, so you just have fewer transactions. So on the other hand, you know, so people tend to say it's kind of subjective, but you know, so like another kind of
alternative approach that we've taken is the following. We say, "Look, okay, when something was bought last time, right, let's just assume for a second that it was bought for a fair price at the time, right? So how do you project someone paying, you know, 500 ETH at this point in time, or 200 ETH or 150 or whatever?
And fundamentally, there's really kind of two numbers. You're like, look, part of that is paying for the floor. But like, again, in my sort of operational floor definition, sort of like the lower bound, just buying into any item and the rest of the premium. So say, you're buying it at the height of our blocks, either the fed ends of the floor is 100,
you're paying 300. Great. So you paid the floor plus 200% premium. So the very, very naive way to model bad would you say, well, how a floor then stands then. Great. Floor went from 100 to 40. That's easy. Right. And then how have premiums performed? How premiums as a percentage
of floor got up or down, which is a guy is something you can also model because you're really just sort of solving for a single member. Even in a small number of transactions, you basically look at things that transacted then and transacted again and basically have premiums got down and sort of, you know, the short stories, yes, the premiums have got down. premiums have collapsed.
By some wall until Friday so basically like you know things that use the cell for three X floor Let you say generally speaking, um, you know with now cell for like 1.6 X floor so That's kind of the core of the model and then again, you're not looking at traits. You're not looking at comparables. So then you do want to add that back so the you know
the only real wrinkle to this is now you have sort of like partial pricing for items that have sold at a certain point in time and now you say okay look at its closest similarities what are the most similar items and you sort of smooth it out right and that's how you get through it or some of the variants and that way you can also price things that have never sold something could have meant it never sold you know
never have an entry price, but you're like, okay, what are the five most similar items? Which does get into the trades a little bit, but you can be a little bit more nuanced. Got it. Yeah, I mean, this is, this is logical. I'm definitely following the process here. And, you know, it makes
sense I feel like the challenges are always going to be like when we see you know these trends that last for a disappear to time like premiums collapsing yeah but then we see an event like Friday we see a blow up not blow up top we see it in incredibly high sale and then the buyers rush back
again and how you start to adjust. So do you, after an event like that, as of today, so we've seen what six foot ins is saying. I think, I think yeah, so let's just sort of, I think I think there's two things that happen there, right? So one thing is definitely the floors are up. That's obvious.
Every single item it ought to be in our estimate although three beat them by very small amount and sort of three beat them by larger amounts right So there's two things that happen one is that you know Flores are up and interest is up. That's great. That's actually very normal Let's go to the easy to model and then the other thing is you have this individual item that you know once you get into one of ones I mean people may pay
is a top five or top ten item in the collection and they're going to and they're going to price it that way, right? Right. Is that I mean is that I don't know. There's other ways that are interpreted. That's how kind of how I interpret it, right? I think as people have pointed out, I mean, there's been let's see on chain
five fadensis that have sold for over 550. And then there's been a bunch that have sold in that 400-500 range, right? And you know, the easiest sort of if you have to sort of explain rationalize a whole bunch of thinking into one piece, you can say, "Hey, it does look a lot like the, you know, sort of like the tulip, right?"
I mean, it really did. It really kind of I thought it was the tulip at first. Yeah, I think I think you might have been the one that posted it. I certainly didn't think of it that way, but you're like, yeah, I mean, that is, you know, so it's not when you sort of can convince yourself that that's a cop, right? Maybe. But but either way, somebody really thought it was one of#
prices, right? Or maybe just doesn't really care. Maybe they wanted a 300, but they're like, I still like it at 500. I mean, you know, when you get up to very top, I mean, things get a little bit different, right? Right. And that's where I think, of course, it's going to be hard to, the hardest part is to to predict in the model. I would assume. But I guess kind of#
just a further, I'm curious, how do you feel like that the model did? Maybe what were your biggest surprises from the results? Yeah, I mean, I think that was definitely the biggest one. I mean, just to break it down, I mean, again, I have to say after this I'll publish a follow up on the blog, just make it easier. But look, I mean, we didn't score the death beef.
We basically we priced all the other six items and for three of them the price was all slightly higher but basically the same. So for the punk was like a little higher but within range. The other fedenza actually that sold sold almost exactly what we predicted it for. You know, it sold for I think 133 we predicted like 127 something like that. It was like
It was within 10%, which for Fadenza is quite good. So there was two other beats. The auto glyph, we had a 200, went for 300. That's a significant beat, but not that crazy, I guess. It's a nice glyph.
of even roads in the blog, I sort of thought the model was wrong. So the one ringer went for almost exactly what we said, Slate beat, and then the other one went for double what we said. But I think our price there was quite bad, right? I think we valued the one that with the red background, it looks a little bit like a Pajji dog. We had it at like 40 and I was like, "Look,
what he seems low, I'd say at least 60 and I went for 80. And I think 80 was a very fair price. Again, there I think it's sort of a failure in the comps. Our comps could be better when we recalculate it, it'll probably be better. It just sort of gets into that. It's price premium, paid was not that high. So you can see why the model would be like, well, it#
But it's comps are good right like you don't even have to see the dog to be like look for that kind of pattern that many dots that read background Did you just look at it visually you're like yeah, you know the comps have historically gone for bigger premiums So that was just a failure of the model to sort of factor that in enough, you know Like I think if we predicted 60 when for 80 so yeah, I mean basically the market was
a little bit prothier, a little bit more optimistic than we thought. You know, hats off to sub-divis for getting buyers and getting a segment. But the real surprise was just, you know, the top of the collection going for 3x. You know, that means that there's like, you know, presumably at least two big buyers in there who really, you know, are not necessarily like, you know, that's, that person paid#
operating floor as of today. So they could have bought 10 kind of normal random pedensis today and instead they'd have that rather have that one. I mean, you know, we just haven't seen that kind of buying in the market for quite some time. So that is surprising, right? Yeah, we have it. It's incredibly surprising. I'm curious. So you know, you mentioned some of the conversations you had with, you know,
People who are going to think about bidding on some of these auctions have you heard any more feedback since The auctions have taken place like what are folks thinking are they adjusting? You know how they're they're looking at upcoming Auctions they throw in their hats in the rain because they're not going to be able to compete with some of these whales have you heard any changes?
changes from folks who are actually playing in this game. I mean, this is more like my take on it than there. And you know, I don't want to give their, you know, they're welcome to give their own thoughts themselves. But sort of the impression that I'm getting is a bit of surprise at first, like almost a little bit of like what happened or is this a little bit fishy, but like no,
No reason to think so. I think that's all just at the top. It's sort of like an irrational way to look at it. But if you just remove that top end sale, the other sales are just like, frothy but normal. Like I said, the other credenza in the same collection.
sold for exactly what we predicted and then if you adjust our operating floor from you know from like say 43 which is what we saw it's a 55 word actually is like we would have been high right like we would have been exactly on point so it's not that like there's not necessarily reason to think that the whole market is incredibly frothy it's just more like it's active
you're going to have to pay for our prices, maybe people came in thinking, hey, we can bid 70% or significant discount to what we were projecting and that didn't turn out to be the case. You could imagine a possibility of a flat market where you can get bargains, that's probably
not going to happen, but if you pay these normal prices, you'll be in the running except for the very best stuff. I mean, definitely I think it definitely changes my thinking on the goose, which is the next auction that's coming up, which I did mention in the article. I mean, our model is like ludicrously low. I don't even agree with my own model, but at the same time I heard that
was what the bees was looking for someone to basically have the bidding date around 1500 ETH, which to me is how that high, that's more or less what it was paid for two years ago. It's like, hey, what about the pho... the pho... the pho... the pho... going down, the premiums going down,
Okay, well now that 1500 seems more reasonable, but I think more than that, like a more normal price that's below 1500, but you know, but somewhat, but significantly above our price seems a little more in play, right? Like if you were going to say, Hey, somebody paid 560 for this Fidenza, that's not even necessarily the best Fidenza, you know, are they going to, you know,
maybe they'll pay at least 500 or 800 for the ranger, the goose. Although I would add a opinion on that is split very strongly. Not everyone thinks the goose is that amazing. But I guess it really takes two. It really does. So maybe let's
It's diving a little bit more on the goose here. So early on, you estimated at 500 and you were told you were low by half. Now you've adjusted below and what folks are kind of saying the same.
same. So, what are you hearing from folks who might actually be bidding or is it all out the window after the $9.00 bidet to sell? Yeah, I mean, I think it's very uncertain. I mean, I think at this point, people who made bidet, they're not probably wouldn't say anything
I mean, because it really makes a big difference, right? Some people are just going to have very, very different estimates. You know, some people think the goose is amazing. It's one of the best art blocks ever. You know, some people think it's a, you know, it's a great deal of 500, right? Some people are like, I don't even want to touch it. You know, it's kind of like for you American sports#
controversial first-round draft pick, right? And like some people want to draft this quarterback number one in the whole draft. Some are like, "I just want to trade the pick, you know, if that makes sense." Like I just think that the opinion is very split. I mean, look, I mean, if you're looking at it in terms of value, I mean, the bull case for the value of the goose is to say, "Look,
It's cool. It's the most iconic. It's the most interesting of the ringers. The ringers are a very iconic classic collection is going to be worth a lot, right? The the barricades is going to be like, well,
How do we even know best five to ten years from now? It'll be considered the best wringer because it doesn't have the best traits It's color palette is actually very normal. It just has his interesting shape So the bear case would be to say it's only worth a lot because You know three AC paid 800 eithward and people decided
it was worth a lot. And that's an opinion that could change. So I just think the error bars are very high. But I think after this auction, you've got to give some of these credits for drumming up interest, finding the buyers. And so now I would have a lot, I would probably have pretty good confidence in them doing that again.
And the other thing is I just don't think they're going to sell it for a bad deal. So if all they're getting is 2, 300 a.m., they'll probably just pull it and wait. That makes sense. I'm happy you went there to your thought process. Will this still matter?
in five years. And it's something I think about a lot. We talked about it a bit earlier in the show for the art block market. I think it is hard to predict outside of a handful. Fadinza swiggles feel pretty safe. Beyond that, I mean, probably throw
in there, I think it becomes a little bit more difficult even outside those. It's tricky, right? I mean, you go with like punks, right? And you know that like the aliens and the A punks are going to be, you know, probably the most valuable. You've got that sub and attribute in there. But it's also just historical punks have been around
for five years and they've been sort of what they are now for at least two years. So you know things do change over time but they don't change overnight right so for example last year I made like a spicy suggestion to be like well is it possible that like punk apes may may actually overtake punk aliens
over time and value. Just like as a thought experiment. And people lost their mind. They were like, "How dare you?" Like they were like offended and for me to suggest it. And I'm like, "Look, I'm not even saying it's going to happen, but it might." Because like, with space said, the punk ate the cooler. They did look cooler than the alien. The art, I think, is better.
And the aliens are just their aliens in a more rare, right? But because that hasn't been the case for such a long time, people were offended that I made that. Yeah, well, it's interesting there too, is at the sizes, there's a little bit more, like a potential community aspect that could
build around the punk ape's versus aliens, which are held by 10 holders. I can see that being an aspect of it. Part of my concern is someone who's trying to figure
where to invest also in the one-of-one art market. I feel like the same principle applies. And we've already seen artists who were big in favor and the 2017 cycle have fallen out. We've seen ones who have gotten more popular in the last few years. And we've seen some value
they should start to skyrocket. But are they going to be still relevant in five to 10 years? So I'm curious. Do you share those concerns? Have you thought about even trying to model some of the one-of-one digital art market in any capacity?
Yeah, I mean, I think we definitely thought about it. We haven't really done it. I mean, I think the effort that we're putting into our blocks now, I think, is going to be recycled into some of those one-of-one artists. People have certainly asked. I mean, I think we're probably going to use very similar methods. I mean, going back again to the Renoir, right?
like how are in wars priced for, you know, comps and insurance and things like that, right? You know, the short version is you're going to say, okay, like, you know, comps, right? You know, for example, and why did the water lilies, that's more than a, I don't remember.
Maybe that's a Monet. But either way, you know, they did a lot of paintings of water lilies and invite, they're not all the same, but they're kind of similar, right? So I think, I think one of one artist do tend to still get bucketed into sort of effectively collections, right? So then you say, hey,
what's the effect of floor on the collection, what are the premiums, how those done? You end up sort of lower bounding it a little bit, you're almost by definition going to be low at the very best pieces. You're going to put these in the series, right? I do think that we're going to do that.
that's one thing. And then the other thing which we've been taught for a while and I think we'll finally dip into is you start doing sort of multi collection modeling, right? So for punks or board aches, we tend to model those collections kind of independently because there's an update that you can't. It's not that there isn't a relationship, but you can do it. And I think again with some of these art blocks, I think the#
really exciting thing is like, okay, when do we start bringing in features from cross collections? So in that way, you have a collection like Squiggle that has a lot of data and you have a collection like Meridians that doesn't or archetypes, it's like, well, modeling them together essentially, right? So that's interesting. I hadn't thought about that.
I was curious if you don't mind if we switch gears a little bit so over a deep anti-diad you've been kind of rolling out valuations on new PFP collections you know some that come to mind that you got a G ping-wins a zoo key's been up for a while even through in Nakamegos have you
Have you pulled any lessons or surprises coming from starting to model those collections? Then maybe we can dive in a little bit more into some of the multi-collection while in piece two. Yeah, I mean, fast-roading a little bit to the multi-collection thing. Definitely one qualitative fact is
Getting to know these communities and I'm like look we're not going to get the pricing perfectly right away, but I want to know what people in the communities think. And definitely one thing you pick up on is that a lot of the same patterns do emerge in the way that sort of things are distributed, sort of some of the pre-do distribution
that you get, the stability in terms of ordering, kind of like we talked about, you know, apes and, and early on pung, you know, at first you can think of it as being kind of uncertain and it'll pretty quickly decide which ones are the valuable ones and which order they go and then that sort of gets locked into place. And I think that happens for every collection.
But it sort of happens independently to the point where people in different collections aren't really aware of this having happened before. So, I mean, definitely speaks to doing multi-collection stuff and sort of blaming that per-collection stuff over time, right? Especially for new collections, you could say, hey,
Here's a pattern you tend to get have the model sort of exposure to that right away. Definitely that's the biggest thing we want to do for sure. Do you feel like you become an expert in these collections?
got the models up and running and it started to evaluate them from a period of time. What does that process look like? So when you think you've got a pretty strong handle on the dynamics of individual collections. Yeah, I mean, I think you're definitely
get faster figuring out, okay, qualitatively, where, what is the model putting out that, you know, the collectors wouldn't necessarily agree with, you know, so.
doesn't mean you can easily fix it always but at least you're aware, you know, I think that you get faster that for sure. That makes sense. Maybe like what what collections out there are you excited about the most right now or maybe considering adding to to debentue
Yeah, I know those can be very separate things, but I'm curious like what you're looking at here in spring, early summer, 2023. Yeah, I mean, we're very happy with our D-God model. It's not for big, but it's pretty good. And even the ordering sort of within something like the Medusa's we're very proud of. I mean, I do expect we're probably low.
the very, very best stuff, but that's just sort of the nature of how we model the model tends to be a bit conservative, which is fine. It's more like saying, hey, if you have to sort of snap options right now, right, what are you going to get? And that's probably going to be lower than people will eventually pay, because we're just saying sales right now, without the service pump, you know, but I think that one#
cool. Definitely looking forward to adding things like mad labs and youths, you know, sort of finally figured out how to get sort of the Salona data, you know, it's a different data provider, but we're pretty happy with that. So that's exciting. You know, it's kind of a perspective that people have, right? They want to know what's going on in the rest of the market, because things are not covering very closely.
You know, the other thing we obviously want to model well is sort of you still have a few collections like like MFRS being prominently where maybe the floor is pretty low, but people still pay 20, 30, 50, X premiums for, you know, the very best items like this is the link. Like alien MFRS go for yeah, 40 X floor.
That's kind of exciting. So, you know, we have we've seen that dynamic at pumps. We know how to model it. So we want to add things like that. You know, at the same time having reasonable modeling for, you know, things that are the exact opposite where maybe the collection is pretty flat, but some get two and three X is kind of like, you know, squiggles. So I think really,
being able to understand the dynamic of that brain of distribution within a collection and modeling it in a way that's like consistent and realistic to how collectors see it. Yeah. Got it. Yeah. That makes sense. I want to maybe pull us back to the current market here just for a minute. What before we do that? If folks have
any questions for Nico who are listening, feel free to put those in the comments or even request come up on stage would love to try to answer a few additional questions if we can. So Nico I think that we've talked about how big of a surprise the
the FDNZ auction is the three AC grills overall. And then I think the second surprise has been the market reaction today. And I don't know if it's a combination of FOMO, but of course we've seen the FDNZZ, see a series of sales we've seen squiggles pop back over
11-Eath and I'm seeing that there's a narrative kind of starting to form out there that is because the 3AC auction cloud hanging over the market is now gone. But I don't feel like that's the case.
of how many more of these entities are left. I'm looking at the Southeast Grills wallet right now. There's 30 Fidensis in there. There's two glyphs, 16 ringers, 13 archetypes, so on and so forth. I'm curious for your personal thoughts here. Do you feel like it's been a bit of an overreaction today? Do you think
we will see a similar pullback ahead of the next auctions or do you think people have just gotten a lot more confidence from these other results? Yeah, I think it's the latter. I think people are just transacting normally and if people want to sell, they'll sell if they want to buy, they'll buy.
Yeah, I mean, I think there was a little bit of a weight and sea, but, you know, look, I mean, even one of the fatensis somebody bought and already tried to flip for 10% more, you know? So I think, yeah, I think it's pretty normal. I think there's more attention, which is good. And, you know, I think we'll probably see
If I had to predict, we'd probably see a willingness to list of normal prices. Like, whereas before the auction, like in the next few days, going into the auction, we'd be like, "Look, we're not going to do anything. We see what's going to happen." Right? Do you have any insight or any conversation you're having? What the timeline is going to look like? I wasn't able to find that. Yeah, I know#
I don't know anything more than anyone else does. I mean, obviously, I'll do the announcement about the Goose. So that's good. You know, the fact that they want to sell it in three weeks. And again, I would, if they're not getting a good price, my expectation will be that they'll push it back, but that just an intuition, you know. But I think that's smart. I think to get that big one out#
the way. I mean, if you look at our valuations, I mean, it really does stand out quite a bit as being sort of by far the largest amount paid, the largest premium. So, you know, I think we're going to adjust our model and I expect us to come back with a significantly bigger number. Oh, you know, that would make sense, right? But either way, like,
that is an item that really stands out. I mean, I think other than the zombie, they have the pung zombie, and then they do have some nice one of ones, and particularly like a drifter shoot, but really, yeah, like I think that the collection has a bunch of sort of fiddenses that are like, I don't want to say the same, but they're not really, they don't
to stand out in the same way. So I think it's probably a smart action by Sotheby's kind of a gamble, but so far a gamble if they're winning, that they're going to be able to put out the very best stuff and get good prices for it, and then maybe sort of offload the premium, but not Grail's kind of stuff, more reasonably
over time. Are you thinking about putting out some additional projected valuations on the remaining contents? Yeah, I will be publishing a post later today just with sort of reactions and overview but really within a week or so we'll probably put out a new batch of prices.
that's going to be, like I said, significantly higher because the market's up. I'd love to. This is like, well, we have a few minutes left here. What is standing out to you or what maybe are you excited to take a look at? The archetype cube is an interesting one. We've got the eternal pumps. We've got this black and white
microoffendants. A few of these are definitely jumping out to me. I'm curious what was kind of jumping out to you that you decided to dig in. Yeah, I mean, I think the microoffendants is for sure. I think they have three microbes. If I'm looking correctly, I'm looking at what we tagged. Yeah, so they have a bunch of monotone ones. They don't have a dark one. They don't
have like a they don't have like a dark one that would be interesting but they do have a bunch of monotone ones that is interesting to me I mean the one that 861 or so like that that's a that's kind of a monotone right that's a great white one so they have a bunch in that sort of big regeneral same style
I'm curious, but yeah, I would say the three micro standout. I mean three is kind of a lot. So I don't know if those will go for huge premiums because people know that they have two more. I mean, I feel like these are better than 725. Of course, that's just personal. Do you think we'll see any higher sales?
and then the $1 million price tag. Who knows? I mean, if they're better, I mean, I can see how some would think that, but my guess is that the person who bought 725 does not think that. I mean, the Comte is probably the tulip at least for them. You got to think about high-end cops, right? Right. The others are just sort of three micros and just
is sort of a small scale, so kind of more rare, more unique, I think. So I wouldn't necessarily think of the micros go for more. I'd be pretty surprised. But I do think that they're going to go for more than we projected. So we're going to redo that map a little bit. But yeah, I think those are cool. The zombie is cool.
Very interested about that. I mean the zombies market is definitely down from teeth for sure We have zombies in the 600-100-Earth range You know given it's said to be is pretty good at getting top dollar probably get something around our price But I'd be very surprised if they got a hundred for example. I'd be very surprised hmm
I'm curious, just kind of a side technical question. How did the gold board eight get thrown into this? Is that going to be included? Yeah, that's not a 3 AC one. That's a different model. But they definitely, they did throw in some mutant and gold apes and actually also some squiggles that were not from the
ReAC. So the stuff that we use grail wallet is mostly 3AC stuff and then some other stuff. The gold dog is from 3AC, but the gold apes are not. Right. I'm saying there's dozens of budget penguins in this mix as well. So that'll be a 3AC. We're collecting tape.
but definitely not 10 wins. So yeah, it's kind of a little bit of a mix band. Yeah. Maybe my last question here before we start to to wind things down. I think we were kind of baiting this on the the lucky lead show this morning. Do you think there's provenance in anything
that 3AC held because of their history in the crypto market and the hedge fund blow up at this point. Do you think that's adding premiums to these valuations? So I think the short answer is no. I think in the short run, maybe sure, but
is kind of like again think of it as the red war building right like think of the what are people going to think years and decades from now and generally speaking people don't really care um you know like yes there are things that are like ooh that was like a famous celebrity's car and it goes from war right but generally speaking for our the previous owner
It can be a negative factor, it can be a small positive factor, but because everyone assumes that over time for the very best stuff, it doesn't matter. Therefore, in the short run, it also doesn't matter, right? If that makes sense.
If something is marked as stolen, that's a real problem. It's also a real problem in real art. If you know your art history, that's an issue. But outside of that kind of controversy, I mean, who knows, with digital ownership, it's a little bit different. Maybe, you never know, but I would say,
these are factors that tend to round zero over time. Yeah, I mean, I think it comes back to that one or two, right? Or there are a few collectors out there where it might matter, but it's kind of hard to argue with with your logic. Well, Nico, I've really
enjoyed our conversation here and walking through your modeling process and your takeaways from these surprising options. I'm curious is there anything you want to leave our listeners with any final thoughts and then anything you want to plug, what else is to come here?
Yeah, I mean, I think it's yeah really looking forward to the valuations and interacting with the community You know online and then your listeners and all that to sort of see what you think to talk through it. I'm gonna be very interesting You know on our site like we do market three AC wallets of for example if you go to Explorer
for ringers or for denser you can type in 3AC and that's sort of a synthetic category to make that easy to find. Yeah, I mean I'm kind of curious for questions people might have if there's something interesting to we missed. I don't know if I don't know if people have been asking questions or not. It doesn't seem like we've collected any questions.
questions here. But, you know, we'll certainly, we'll be waiting for that next guide to come out with your your reactions. I'm kind of, you know, grading the results here and thoughts ahead. I know we'll do some coverage of that over at Lucky Trader and maybe
weekend, sink back up again quickly. And before the next round of these auctions goes live, I'd certainly love to continue our conversation ahead of this next one. Yeah, me too. I mean, I'm glad that this is relevant and interesting again. I know when we did this round in October,
a lot of people DM me with a lot of thoughts and questions and links and things like that. So I think that'll happen again. We'll see. Yeah, I mean, well clearly there's there's some more excitement in the generative art market here today. We'll see if it's just a short term pomp or if we've got a little bit more staying powered.
but the week is off to a fun start. Well, Nico, thank you so much for joining us on the spaces. We'll publish this to our pod network. Love, love having you on folks. If you aren't already given Nikolai, follow good deep NFT value. Follow, go out and check out
out there, their platform. Again, I think it's that the premier evaluation service in NFTs right now. So, Nico, thanks so much for joining us here this afternoon. And I think we can close things out. >> Thank you, Tyler. Thanks, sir, for everyone listening and Brian, nice call.
Yes, love the skull brand. All right, but have a good afternoon everybody. We'll talk to you soon.