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Lucky Trader x NBA Top Shot: Playoff Pack Launch
Recorded: April 17, 2023 Duration: 1:00:19Space Recording
Full Transcription
GM, GM, thank you for joining us here
this morning. We are going to give it a few minutes here
for our speakers to join, get everyone
up on stage. While we wait, here
is a fun new NBA Playoffs Hypad for us to listen
to while everyone joins.
This home court advantage matcher, just as I suspected. He hasn't told me anything
mind-blowing so far. What else could we hit this guy with?
What is the greatest moment in playoff history?
Michael Jordan hit a 20-foot jumper over Brian Russell.
This is one of his best answers so far.
What impact does winning championship have on a player's legacy?
Let's see here. It can have a significant impact on a player's legacy.
He needs a ring.
Welcome to the future.
It's wide open.
We're about to bring it every single night.
You ready for this?
Welcome to the future.
Let's talk Jokic.
Embiid.
How about Dom Lurin?
Giannis.
Jason Payton.
Just breathtaking.
Do you think PayD still has that dog in him?
Kevin Lurin, cold-blooded.
Agreed.
He is cold.
Who will win the NBA championship?
Welcome to the future.
Welcome to the future.
Welcome to the future.
Lakers, Bucs, 76ers, I don't know about that.
I love the Kings.
Sacramento has won team number one.
Do the Warriors still have some gas in the tank?
So he says, they certainly have the potential to be a dangerous team.
No one wants to see this team fully limited in the playoffs.
Describe the NBA playoffs in one word.
Intense.
Call the intensity of the playoffs.
Give me another one for him.
Electric.
It is electric in this building.
This guy's slick as hell.
Let's do another one.
Unpredictable.
There is nothing like playoff basketball.
You just sit back and enjoy.
I like this guy.
I like this guy.
We got to keep going.
I'm in the zone now.
Welcome to the future.
All right, GM everybody.
And welcome to a very special show here this afternoon.
The NBA playoffs are off to an amazing start.
And NBA Top Shot is getting in on the fun with a brand new style of packs and collecting.
I can't wait to break it all down with you here this afternoon.
I'm here with Jacob Eisenberg and Peter Jennings for a very special show to preview the NBA Top Shot playoff pack drop happening today at 1 p.m. Eastern and their new redemption mechanism.
We're going to do an overview on the packs and the new champions path, talk how the redemptions work, and then get into the playoffs and do some predictions along with collecting strategy.
For some quick background, Jacob is the chief of staff at NBA Top Shot, self-described glue guy at Dapper Labs and pass first point guard.
Jacob, GM, how are you doing?
Tyler, thanks for having me.
Excited to be here breaking down the playoffs.
What a great weekend we got to start it off.
Yeah, it was such a fast start.
Some awesome games.
Can't wait to break it down.
We've also got Peter Jennings.
He's got deep experience in gambling, DFS, and NBA Top Shot.
He's building several companies, including Lucky Trader, Unabated Sports, Establish the Run, Solver Sports.
After having founded and sold Fantasy Labs and Action Network HQ.
Peter, good morning.
How are you doing?
Good morning.
Excited to be here.
And yeah, I couldn't agree more.
This was probably the best round of games in the first round that I can remember.
And I just think we're set up for one of the best playoffs potentially of all time.
There's so much parody in the league this year and excited to talk Top Shot and about the NBA.
It should be a lot of fun.
Awesome.
Well, I can't wait to get into it.
So before we do, just a quick housekeeping.
If you've got any questions for the speakers, go ahead and put it in the comments and we'll save some time at the end to try to go through those.
Also, Jason Bales put together an awesome overview and strategy guide for the playoff packs and the champions path over at Lucky Trader.
We'll get that pinned to the space here in a bit.
All right.
Well, let's let's just jump in, Jacob.
I'm going to tee you up for this first one.
Maybe give us a quick overview of the new playoff packs.
What are the redemptions and what should people expect with today's drop?
Yeah, great question.
So for the first time ever, we're going to be selling packs.
These packs don't exclusively contain moments.
They contain moments and these redemptions.
These redemptions.
Redemptions are NFTs and they consist of 48 of the most impactful players in the league.
So every team, all 16 teams are getting their top two players.
Those two players will have a redemption minted to 5000.
Those will be the total number of NFTs for those star players through the playoffs until the NBA finals when we're going to have a legendary finals drop.
So, for example, with the Sixers, it will be Joel Embiid and James Harden's only 5000 moment or 5000 NFTs throughout the entire playoffs.
And as every round progresses, the best moment from those players each round will be available as a challenge reward that you can redeem your redemption for.
So it has a little bit of that crafting mechanism of I have X, I turn it into Y.
And as teams advance for every round in the playoffs, their moments get scarcer in the process because more additions pop up.
So it creates a lot of game theory, a lot of excitement, a lot of speculation for collectors to project which teams are going to advance far into the playoffs, which stars are going to perform, which dark horse teams are going to be sleepers and advance farther than you may expect.
Yeah, so there is a lot of game theory.
There's a lot to unpack.
So kind of starting with the basics.
So the NFTs themselves are called redemptions now, as I understand it.
So the pack drop today will include redemptions.
And again, the supply will be capped at 5000 per player.
And then that number can only go down.
It cannot increase.
Am I summarizing that accurately, Jacob?
Yeah, that's exactly right.
So these redemptions won't have a highlight associated with them.
You'll still see the players face on the thumbnail.
It will be very clear which player it is.
Every team will have a third wild card.
So, for example, with those Sixers, it's very possible that round one, that wild card can get crafted into a Tyrese Maxi.
And round two, that wild card can get crafted into a Tobias Harris.
So whichever player that isn't one of the top two that has a great moment in a round becomes eligible for a playoff challenge reward.
Got it.
So there's an additional kind of game theory in tracking these playoffs to also determine if you think that that round one wild card will have some continued success into the playoffs.
So, yeah, just so much to break down and unpack here.
And I want to get into some examples.
But before we do that, maybe just some quick logistics on the packs here coming at 1 p.m. Eastern.
There's two types, the $10 and $29.
Can you maybe take us through the differences there?
Jacob?
Yeah, for sure.
So with the $10 pack, everyone is guaranteed one redemption and two moments from the regular season.
With the $29 three-pointer pack, those contain three redemptions and seven moments from the regular season.
So a little bit more bang for your buck with the $29 pack.
Obviously, if you're prorating out, those drop and dimes $10 packs will take you $30 to get to three redemptions.
With the $29 pack, you get three redemptions for $29 plus a bunch more moments in the process.
But we wanted to create kind of accessible price tiers for a new collector coming in who wanted to enjoy the playoffs.
We found success with those lower price offerings for those newer collectors.
So, yeah, I think for the savvy audience here, you can't go wrong with either, but a little bit more bang for your buck with the $29 option.
Got it. That makes sense. And I think the concept of stacking the redemptions will make a little bit more sense as we walk through some examples and kind of talk about how this is structured here.
So I've got one of the initial NBA Top Shot blog posts pulled up here.
I'm kind of looking at the image of kind of the redemption windows, kind of how you start with that first round moment in a redemption,
and then kind of how you get to an NBA Finals moment.
So, Jacob, could you maybe just walk us through kind of from start to finish?
If you want to kind of go all the way through this, what would it look like and how would it work?
And, you know, can you use a round two moment to get to the finals, kind of some of the logistics there?
Yeah, great question.
So I think one of the more important things for our collectors to keep in mind is you will be able to redeem either the redemption or the previous rounds moment into that next rounds moment.
So, for example, come second round, you'll be able to craft either your redemption or a first round moment into that second round moment from the corresponding player.
When it comes to the finals, however, you will not be able to craft that first round moment into the finals moment.
It's only the preceding round, which means that you're going to have to be super calculated with your decision making every round of the playoffs
to ensure you have maximum flexibility and are kind of pursuing the if you are pursuing the champions pack challenge,
which formerly known to some of our collectors is a master challenge of collecting all of the additions plus redemptions of the championship team.
You'll get an exclusive reward at the end of the playoffs.
That's where the game theory really will come in needing to be able to own not just all the redemptions, but also all of those rounds players.
Or all of those players round by round moments.
Got it.
Yeah, that makes sense.
I'm tracking with you.
So you really have to follow this closely.
I mean, this is a multi-week, multi-round game, especially if you want to go for the challenge to try to complete that.
So just quickly, maybe if you could tell us what the kind of details for that final challenge is, you know, what it takes to collect.
And then we'll get into more of kind of why Depper went this route.
Yeah, so you'll need all three redemptions from the team that wins the championship.
I've been using the Sixers as the example, but let me transition over to my Knicks.
So the Knicks have Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and the Knicks wild card.
You'll need those three redemptions, plus Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson's first round moment, plus whatever player the wild card turns into.
It could be based on the other night, Josh Hart.
Then second round comes around, you're going to need Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and that wild card player's second round moment, and so on through the third round, and then the finals.
And you'll need to have all 15 of those moments, or I guess 12 of those moments plus the three redemptions, if we're not calling those moments.
You'll need all 15 of those NFTs to get the championship real, which will have kind of all the greatest hits of the Knicks throughout the entire playoff journey.
Got it. So there's kind of two high-level strategies that I see, and we'll get into the intricate details later on.
But essentially, you can try to stack redemptions early on and kind of just chart this out and play along, or you can kind of buy on the secondary as things go forward. Is that kind of how you're looking at it?
Yeah, certainly there are a bunch of different ways that collectors can approach it.
One, I think you outlined two very kind of clear and simple strategies.
There's also the approach of, you know, if you are a big believer in the Suns and you think that last night was a fluke, maybe like today slash this week could be a good opportunity to capitalize on the uncertainty of whether the Suns have enough to get past the Clippers, right?
Vice versa, if you think that the Clippers are legit and you think the Suns are getting a little overhyped, maybe today's a good opportunity or this week's a good opportunity to really kind of put your money where your mouth is, so to speak, around collecting the best Clippers for this playoff run.
So, yeah, certainly a lot of different game theory approaches you can take.
Got it. My reaction to this when I was kind of reading and prepping for our show here and reading through Jason's strategy, guys, is it's fun.
You know, this is a really fun kind of gamified way to collect here and then gamble, make bets on the NBA playoffs.
And so as a casual gambler, as a casual NBA Top Shot collector, I was pretty intrigued by this.
So I'm kind of curious from behind the scenes, you know, what were some of the factors that drove the decision to kind of introduce this new redemption, this kind of burn or crafting mechanism?
Why did Top Shot go this way?
Yeah, I think there are three core reasons and the first and most important reason is exactly what you just said.
We anticipate it will be a lot of fun for our collectors.
It's not necessarily, and as evidenced by the fact that these are commons, right, out of 5,000, it's not necessarily kind of your 2021 February Top Shot where, you know, you come in and check Top Shot every day and you're expecting incredible price volatility.
That's not necessarily what we're going for here.
We're going for a much more enhanced playoff experience.
So you can watch round by round of the playoffs and really kind of align your fandom and your kind of preferences as a spectator with kind of the action that's happening on Top Shot every single day.
So I think that's the most important thing.
We thought that this would be a more fun way to play and collect along with the playoffs.
Number two, predictability.
We've been hearing it from our community for a very long time, and we feel strongly that it's incredibly important for us to lay out all the rules up front.
Now, the NBA as a sport is entirely unpredictable in its own right, and that's where the predictability should stop and start, right, or start and stop, I should say.
But if the games themselves are unpredictable, we don't need to, as Top Shot, make the experience of collecting even more unpredictable than the outcomes themselves.
So you all will know, going into the playoffs, exactly what the mid-counts are going to be.
You know kind of all the ways that you can collect.
You can formulate your own strategies.
There are going to be no kind of pivots or adjustments along the way.
There is a small chance that an injury happens, which breeds even more unpredictability into the kind of design of the system.
We already saw earlier over the weekend, right, John Morant is going to be questionable for game two.
Giannis is questionable, right?
So this adds a lot of kind of speculation to how does that impact the playoff picture?
How does that impact my redemption strategy?
And that's going to be really fun.
Yeah, I agree.
And I think it's definitely – you're introducing a new mechanism.
And, you know, it takes a couple minutes to kind of get your grasp of how this all works.
But I think one thing I very liked and responded to is that the rules of the game are set.
You know, we know now what the structure of the champion's path of all these packs, how it's going to work.
And now it just – it becomes – it's every holder's chance to kind of start thinking through the game theory and how they want to approach it.
So I definitely like that aspect of how this was set up.
And, Peter, I'd love to kind of tag you in here and give Jacob a brief break.
I'd love to hear just kind of your reactions as someone with deep NBA top shot experience as you kind of heard about the new redemption mechanism
and then how you might be starting to think about approaching this new game.
Yeah, I love this.
I think it's a really smart move by Dapper and it's really kind of encouraging to have a game like this with the redemptions.
And part of what drew me to top shot is this concept of a sports stock market that I've always loved.
And it's been kind of a graveyard of people trying it.
But Dapper certainly has done a great job with NBA top shot.
And I think this game specifically captures some of what I'm looking for.
And, you know, I think we've seen this kind of format with playoff best ball do super well where you're kind of, you know, making these futures bets.
And with this NBA playoffs where there's so much parity and so many teams that I think have a legit shot to get to the finals, to win the finals, it should be a lot of fun.
So I'm super excited about it.
I'm already thinking about some of the examples of teams that I want to go after, especially after, you know, the first game that we saw in each series.
I think the Suns are really interesting.
The Warriors are interesting.
Both those teams lost.
Maybe Miami can make a run.
So I think it's really fun and it's super compelling.
And I think it was a great move by Dapper.
Yeah, I totally agree.
So maybe on that note, maybe we transition into a little playoff talk and predictions.
And then we can kind of keep tying in the NBA, who's going to win, who we think is going to win aspect, along with the collecting strategy as we go forward.
I was thinking it might make sense to kind of pull up the finals odds, talk through, you know, who, Peter, you and Jacob think are the real contenders here, you know, how we could collect from there.
And then maybe start working our way backwards into some of the, you know, the first and second round games.
So I've got the NBA finals futures odds here up from DraftKings.
The Celtics are the lowest at plus 260.
The Bucs are plus 330.
Suns plus 500.
The 76ers are plus 900.
The Nuggets plus 950.
And then the Warriors plus 1,100.
The Lakers plus 1,200.
And then it goes to 25 and beyond.
So I'm curious, Peter, maybe I'll tee you up again.
Who are kind of your finals contenders as we sit here in mid-April?
Yeah, so I think after the weekend and just kind of looking at the path, I think the Celtics are clearly the number one team.
Derek White has just emerged as a, you know, really good two-way player to complement Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum.
And then they have so much depth with Al Horford, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart.
To me, they're the most well-rounded best team.
And they certainly have an easier path playing the Hawks, who I think are the worst team in the Eastern Conference playoffs versus Milwaukee, who has their hands full with Miami.
And especially now with Giannis having a back contusion.
So I think in the East, you have three teams that we've always known kind of throughout the year that have a chance.
It's Milwaukee, Boston, and Philly.
And after round one, or after the first game in round one, I favor Boston the most.
But I certainly think it's a decent chance, decent time to buy low on Milwaukee.
And Philly looked really good in their first game against the Nets.
So that's really what I'm looking at.
I know there's people out there that love the Knicks and Cleveland.
I think that's going to be a great series.
But I don't think either team has a real shot to get to the finals or win the finals.
In the West, it's really wide open.
I think if I had to pick one team, I'd still take Phoenix.
But this Clippers team is scary.
And Kawhi certainly looks really good.
And the lack of depth after the kind of the big four that Phoenix has is a bit concerning.
But I think they're still my pick if I had to pick one team to get through the West.
Denver certainly looked really good last night as well.
I think the Warriors are obviously alive.
And the Lakers are coming on strong.
And now, you know, are in really good shape against Memphis, given John Morant's hand injury.
So there's compelling teams.
I think the West is way more wide open.
You can make a good case for pretty much every team in the West to win, with the exception of maybe Minnesota,
who I think is drawn pretty slim to dead.
So that's where it's more interesting to me.
But in the East, it's those big three teams.
And you want to target those three teams, in my opinion.
And in the West, it's kind of personal preference on who you think is going to go far.
Because I think there's quite a bit of parity, especially in the West.
Thank you for going through that.
And I think it highlights the difference between the East and the West.
Highlight right off the bat a few different ways or strategies about collecting these redemptions.
So I think Jason Bales, again, helps us out a ton in his overview guide with some strategy.
His first two kind of strategies to consider are, one, invest in players and teams with high playoff potential.
So that's your Celtics, your Bucs, you know, perhaps your Suns.
And then, two, diversify your collection as a way to hedge for some surprises, some injuries that may go out throughout the playoffs.
And that feels a little bit more kind of tailored at the West as I'm kind of looking at things right now.
So, Jacob, I'd love to tee you up here to get your thoughts on kind of who your contenders are, any differences from Peter,
and then maybe some thoughts about some initial collecting strategies kind of based on who you like in the finals.
Yeah, no notes.
Peter nailed it, as usual.
Those are the teams that I think every kind of collector that's analytically driven will gravitate toward.
I think the one really interesting kind of layer of the Eastern Conference is this kind of rock-paper-scissors dynamic
where it seems like the Celtics have Philly's number, and Philly might have Milwaukee's number, and Milwaukee has Boston's number.
You toss the Knicks into there if you're being generous.
The Knicks have had a really good time against Boston this year, but can't seem to figure out Philly or Milwaukee.
So it's a quite interesting kind of dynamic there.
As a Knicks fan, I really don't want to put too much stock into Saturday.
I thought that both teams didn't play particularly well, but Cleveland has quite a few guys that severely underperformed,
so I wouldn't be surprised to see them bounce back strong tomorrow.
Now, in the West, I think kind of to the same point that Peter was making with Boston just having,
by far, the easiest first-round matchup of the lot.
That's kind of why I'd lean toward Denver having the best opportunity out West.
They just have a cakewalk, it seems, for the first round.
Granted, they're going to have to play either Phoenix or L.A. in round two,
and that's going to be a tough matchup for them.
But if they want to make it to the finals, they're going to have to go through that.
At some point, worth noting, since 2001, Denver has a whole standard deviation of home court advantage
ahead of the second-best home court advantage in the NBA.
And you can chalk that up to the altitude, you can chalk that up to the way that they historically played,
but considering they'll have home court advantage through the West,
that will be, hopefully, a difference-maker for their sake as they progress round by round.
Got it. Yeah, I think that makes a ton of sense.
So now I kind of want to pull it back to the Redemptions
and how someone who really believes that the Celtics are going to win the finals here,
how they might approach starting to build a collection
if they want to try to qualify to get that challenge.
So I'm looking at the update here from a few days ago.
The players that are going to be highlighted from the Celtics,
we've got Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown along with the wild card.
So, Jacob, what would be just kind of someone who is a casual NBA top shot collector
who wants to participate in this game and kind of wants to bet on the Celtics?
How would you think they would go about kind of playing here or building a collection?
Yeah, I think the king-making move, if you want to take the easiest route to following that conviction
and seeing the Celtics win the championship,
would be stacking redemptions for both Jason Tatum, Jalen Brown, and the wild card.
If you have five redemptions in your collection from each of them,
then you have the ultimate kind of access mint pass for every round they progress.
That takes all kind of risk off the table of missing out round by round.
Now, with that being said, that might stretch your wallet a little past what you're comfortable with for today.
So, kind of a modified version of that would be stacking two or three redemptions per player
and kind of seeing as the rounds progress, maybe making decisions as you go
of whether you want to add more redemptions to your collection.
Now, the most interesting part of that master challenge or the champion's path challenge
at the end of the road will be kind of identifying amongst the team
what the bottleneck is going to be.
So, I laid out on my Twitter a few days ago just this kind of example
of if the Celtics were to advance.
And it's quite easy for a first round or second round wild card moment,
be it Malcolm Brogdon or Robert Williams in this case,
to become a bottleneck for that champion's path set very quickly.
So, you'll be wanting to monitor along the way of how many redemptions have been traded in each round
because whatever that bottleneck is, that's going to ultimately be kind of the most important moment
to getting that challenge reward at the end.
Got it.
And I actually hadn't thought about that just yet.
So, hearing you walk through it kind of helps open my eyes.
So, we're in round one.
We've got Tatum and Jalen Brown.
And then, you know, Brogdon gets the wild card moment.
And then, let's say, only 300 redemptions are burned to get that card.
So, now you've got, you know, 4,850 Tatums out there, 4,850 Browns, we'll say,
and then 300 of the Brogdon's.
So, that becomes essentially perhaps the most valuable card in the set early on.
Am I thinking about that right?
Is that kind of where you're going with how these different kind of wild card moments will transpire?
Yeah, certainly the example you laid out is a quite extreme example of what could unfold.
But even if it's, you know, within 20% of the mid count of the Brown or Tatum,
same kind of principle applies that that bottleneck could, in theory,
be the most coveted for the entire collection.
And, of course, that Brogdon, in your example, is at 300.
Come Al Horford next round, making eight straight three-pointers
and getting an incredible moment from round two,
collectors would have the option to craft that Brogdon into the Horford.
So, that 300 Brogdon could end up being 200 or 100.
Now, more likely, they would use redemptions,
given how plentiful they'd be in that specific example.
But you get the point.
Yeah, that makes sense.
I think one more tactical question is how are injuries addressed?
So, we've already seen, like, Giannis, for example,
struggling with some injuries early on here.
So, like, if he gets knocked out of the playoffs here in round two,
so to speak, what does that mean exactly for how Bucs' redemptions
and moments will be crafted going forward?
So, in a world where Giannis is out for the rest of the first round
and the Bucs were to proceed,
our curation team would kind of look at game one,
identify if there are any Giannis-worthy moments.
In a world where there are not,
that Giannis could revert into a second Bucs wildcard,
kind of creating the opportunity for more Bucs players
as rounds progress to become craftable.
The reason being, I guess, on two fronts.
Highly unlikely for one of a team's top two players to get injured
and that team continue to progress round by round, right?
Just with the talent in the playoffs, that's kind of tempting fate.
But secondarily, we didn't want to kind of exclude the possibility
of another player kind of stepping up.
So, in a world where Giannis goes down, can't play again in round one,
we determine as a team that Giannis didn't have anything in game one
worthy of using for a moment,
it will be possible for a second Bucs wildcard to enter the fold
should they progress.
Got it.
Good to know.
Just want to make sure I have a handle on all the mechanics here,
given we've already seen some possibilities for this early in round one.
So, maybe we switch.
So, we've talked about finals
and our speakers' thoughts on who are the favorites.
Maybe let's jump back here to round one,
some of the more intriguing matchups,
what some of our speakers think,
and then how that might translate into ways to collect these redemptions.
Peter, I'll tee it up for you.
Maybe what are some of your more intriguing matchups here for round one,
and who might be some of your kind of underdog picks here?
Yeah, I think the most intriguing series the rest of the way for me
is Sacramento and Golden State,
and it's hard to kind of figure out what to think about
from a betting perspective,
which is applicable for the redemptions.
Golden State had a horrific year on the road,
one of the worst records on the road,
and just really played well at home,
while at the same time,
and something else kind of that factors in,
they didn't have Andrew Wiggins for a good part of the season.
So, he just came back after a big personal issue,
looked pretty good in game one,
and of course they have the championship pedigree
with the same team they wanted all last year.
Now, on the other side,
you have Sacramento who hasn't made the playoffs
in some like 18 years or something,
and they've been really, really fortunate
in terms of injury variants.
They've been healthy most of the year,
and they play great offense,
but not the best defense.
So, to me, there's a lot of interesting matchups.
I think the Warriors are going to continue to struggle
to stop the Sacramento Kings,
but one encouraging element kind of coming off game one
that people were concerned about coming into the series
was the defense that was played on,
DeMontis Sabonis,
who did not have a good first game,
and the Warriors mixed in zone,
and some really good play from Kevon Looney.
So, that's an interesting series.
It's another pick-em type spread tonight.
I lean the Warriors in the series still,
but certainly, I think the Kings are in a pretty good spot.
That was an amazing, you know, kind of round one series.
I think the second most compelling series for me
is in the same conference in the West
with the Suns and the Clippers,
and I thought the Suns would be able
to kind of have their way with this Clippers team,
but Kawhi looked like the best player on the court.
Kawhi and Durant certainly look like
two of the best players in the NBA still,
and it'll be interesting to see
if Paul George can come back
at any point in time in this series.
I don't think he's going to.
I think he's more likely to come back
in round two or round three
if they do get that far,
but that's another interesting angle
for the Redemptions
if Paul George does come back.
But yeah, those two series in the West,
I think, are really interesting,
and basically every series in the West
is compelling outside of the Nuggets
and T-Wolves,
which I think the Nuggets
are going to roll in four or five.
Got it.
Jacob, I'll tee you up
for the same question.
What matchups are you looking at
most interested here in round one?
Yeah, I mean,
taking my Knicks bias aside,
I genuinely think the Knicks-Cavs matchup
just has so much going for it.
Obviously, the teams are pretty evenly matched.
The Donovan Mitchell narrative
dating back to last summer,
Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell's rivalry
dating back to last postseason.
I think that could be either teams to have,
and given the uncertainty with Giannis right now
and the fact both teams handled Miami fairly well
during the regular season,
it has a lot more riding on it
than I think any of us thought
maybe three days ago.
So that one I'm super keen on following closely.
And then I think the Memphis-Lakers situation
is extremely interesting.
Now, obviously,
the jaw injury is a bummer,
but I saw a really interesting stat yesterday.
LeBron, I believe,
has played 121 playoff games,
or in his last 121 playoff games,
yesterday's was the least usage
he's had in a playoff game in his career.
So, it goes to show that
while the Lakers are, you know,
obviously super reliant on their big two
of LeBron and AD,
the role players really stepped up yesterday
between Rui and Austin Reeves.
And if those guys continue to kind of ascend
through the playoffs,
then, you know,
they have a fighting chance against,
be it Sacramento or Golden State,
should they advance past Memphis.
I'm not going to count those chickens
before they hatch.
I think Memphis is still the prohibitive favorite
in that matchup.
But a lot obviously rides on
Jaws' health in the next week or two.
Got it.
That all makes sense.
That is definitely going to be
a fun one to watch.
I've got a few buddies
who've got some long shot Lakers
to win the finals bets.
So, they are heavily rooting
on LeBron and co.
to pull it off here this year.
It seems like a narrative
that several are kind of rallying around.
Peter, I'm very curious for your thoughts.
We've kind of laid out
the finals predictions,
some matchups for round one.
If you're thinking about
approaching this new game,
the champion's path,
and building a collection,
kind of how would you go about doing it?
How are you looking at the game here?
Now, two days into the round one playoffs.
Yeah, I just want to just,
I'll circle back and I'll answer that.
I do think the Knicks and Cavs
are super compelling as well.
I think there's so many good storylines.
Like Jacob, laid out.
Donovan Mitchell, we'll see.
I think he'll have some big games
in Madison Square Garden.
And I'm interested to see
how Mobley evolves as a player.
And man, Jalen Brunson
has just been so incredible.
The Mavs just must feel so stupid
not signing Brunson
when they had the chance.
In terms of the games, yeah,
I think I'm just going to make
some big consolidated bets.
I think I really like the Celtics.
That's obviously not a contrarian take at all.
But I do feel good about loading up on them.
I think they have a,
you know, in my view,
they're the clear favorites to win it all.
They do have a couple roadblocks
that can be challenging,
but I've just been so impressed
with Derek White and their depth
in addition to the Jays
that I think they're the prohibitive favorite.
And then in the West,
I'm going to take some wildcard bets.
I think I'll probably try to buy low
on some of the Suns
at this point in time.
And then I do like Denver quite a bit.
Jacob, you know,
pointed out their advantage at home.
And I think that's mostly due to the elevation.
But yeah, they looked really good last night.
And I think their core
is in a good position.
And I think they'll get a lot of rest
in between the first and second round,
which will prove to be really beneficial.
So I'll probably load up on those three teams
and kind of try to make a consolidated futures bet
in that way,
which should be fun.
Yeah.
Hopefully I didn't just get rugged.
Can you guys still hear me?
Yeah, I can hear you, Peter.
I think it might be Tyler's mic.
Yeah, Tyler might have got...
Oh, I'm back, guys.
I'm back.
Can you hear me now?
Okay.
Yeah, sorry.
My bad.
I was going into a question
about contrarian methods
of collecting or looking at this.
I think, Peter,
you've done a nice job
of kind of laying out
your current point of view
on the playoffs,
on collecting.
Are there any other ways
to go about this
or angles to approach
from your perspective
outside of kind of the standard path?
Yeah, I think the other play
would be to just diversify a lot.
I think that's really interesting.
I think Jason did a really good job
laying that out.
I specifically think in the West,
you could make that move
and kind of seeing
where there's less demand.
I mean, literally,
any one of these teams
outside of the Wolves
have a chance to win the West.
So I think that's a pretty sharp play.
And, you know,
maybe you say,
hey, Memphis,
you know,
the Moran injury is concerning
and the market,
you know,
doesn't appreciate Memphis.
And you go and collect
a lot of Memphis cards
or, hey, Sacramento
really look good in my view.
And, you know,
I think the Warriors
are overrated.
Go collect some of the
Sacramento players.
And also you could just say,
hey, I'm going to take
the approach of just
completely diversifying
within the West
and then making decisions
as you get farther
into the round.
So I think that's another
opportunity
specifically in the West.
I don't think diversifying
in the East
makes as much sense.
But in the West,
I really think all,
you know,
outside of the Wolves,
anyone can win.
That makes sense.
Jason Bales,
welcome to the stage.
As mentioned,
Jason wrote a great overview
and strategy guide for us
over at Lucky Trader.
Jason,
I'd love to hear,
you know,
any of your thoughts
on beginner strategy,
ways to approach this,
how you're looking at
both the game
as well as the playoffs.
Hey,
I just wanted to come up
and offer one interesting
tidbit about wild cards
in particular,
especially in the East.
I think it's interesting
that Milwaukee
has sort of a big three,
whereas Boston,
they have their big two
and then they're spread out
more after that.
And so I think
it's interesting
to collect wild cards
from either of those teams
based on what you're
trying to do.
So for example,
Boston could have
any of their players
after Brown and Tatum
become the wild card moment,
whereas the Bucs
are way more likely,
especially with a Giannis injury
to have Middleton
become that player
each round.
And so it's interesting,
you could do,
you could play
Boston's wild cards
and as they advance,
you could actually collect
like the only playoff moment
from say Al Horford
because he's liable
to get that wild card moment
or the only one
for Brogdon or whoever
versus,
Middleton,
but the interesting thing
about Middleton
is if the Milwaukee Bucs
actually do make the finals
and say Giannis
is dealing with an injury,
he's liable to win
finals MVP.
So you could actually
get a finals MVP
via a wild card
Milwaukee redemption.
Yeah,
that's very interesting
and adds another level
of game theory
on the deeper teams
versus those
who are a little bit heavier
in a few of their superstars.
So definitely
appreciate that
angle there,
Jason.
You know,
I want to read off
maybe a couple questions
that we've gotten
so far
in the space.
Let me pull those up
one sec here.
Paywell asks,
can one player
be a wild card
more than once,
for example,
in first round
and conference finals?
I think we've talked
about that,
but Jacob,
do you just want to
address that one
for everyone
who's listening in?
Yeah,
the answer is
absolutely yes.
So for example,
if Chris Middleton
were to do something
remarkable in round one
and round three,
he would get
the wild card
both times.
It's as simple as that.
there's no cap
in theory.
Chris Middleton
could get the wild card
every round.
He could get it once.
We will be
kind of
looking truly
at the best moment
from a non-star player
for each round
as it goes.
And on that point,
I've got a question
in our chat here
about moment selection.
Are you using
the same criteria
for the actual moments
that are picked
as you do
kind of standardly
in the regular season?
is there a different
approach for the playoffs?
we'll be using
a very similar criteria
obviously
with the fixed min count
like one of the
only rules
is that
the wild card
won't be
one of the top
two players
that's already
getting their own
redemption.
you'll get
at very least
three players
each round
from that team.
But no,
it's very similar
criteria.
I think
in the world
of picking highlights
that is inherently
subjective
of what
the better highlight
we will
potentially
kind of
try to include
the community
where we can
as the later rounds
progress.
I think
it's going
to be
a pretty
standard
kind of
curation process.
We have the
best in the business
between Austin
Kent and Brandon
Soul
kind of scouring
every game
looking for
the very best
highlights.
just to
something that
Jason said
that stuck
out as an
interesting concept
that I know
we've discussed
a little bit
internally
rookies.
Obviously,
there aren't
many rookies
that figure
to play
a pivotal role
in the playoffs.
I was
secretly hoping
for the
Thunder
to get to
the eighth seed
just because
Jalen Williams
obviously would
be a prime
candidate to get
a wild card.
But as you
look through
the rosters
of these teams
that will be
kind of in the
playoffs and
advancing round
by round,
the only team
that really
stands out to me
as a team
that has a
rookie that
could potentially
get a moment
and obviously
if DeAndre Hunter
comes out of
woodwork and
does something
incredible,
don't hold me
to this.
But Keegan
Murray on the
Kings strikes me
as a guy
that potentially
could get a
moment as the
rounds progress
pending King's
success and him
doing something
special.
Those are
some great
tips and
will be
another
interesting
factor to
watch here
with those
rookie moments
always being a
bit more
valued.
One other
question here
Jacob,
then we'll
move on to
the discussion
a little bit.
It's very
tactically,
will I lose
the redemption
moments if I
don't use them?
Is there any
timer on
any aspect of
this that
collectors need
to be aware
So after
the round
concludes,
there will
be a
redemption
window to
redeem your
redemption or
the previous
round's moment
into the
next round's
moment.
That window
will close
when the
next round
starts.
If you
have, let's
just use the
Hawks as the
example, let's
take the liberty
of assuming they
won't make it
out of the
first round,
and you
have your
Trey Young
redemption
moment and
you choose
not to
redeem it or
you miss
the window
to redeem
it, you
will keep
that Trey
Young
redemption
moment or
redemption
collectible in
your collection.
It will
serve as if
it were a
Trey Young
moment for
things like
you can trade
it in for
trade tickets,
you can craft
it in a
challenge that
requires a
Trey Young
common.
So you
don't lose
it by not
using it,
but the
utility of
crafting it
into that
playoff moment
that goes
away after
the redemption
window concludes.
Got it.
So make
sure to
pay attention
and actively
manage your
portfolio here
if you want
the most
bang for
your buck,
which I think
makes sense,
right?
As folks are
actively managing
a larger set
of these
redemptions,
you want to
be doing this
anyway.
And just
really quick
there, Tyler,
sorry I
dropped.
I wouldn't
I'm going
to refrain
from making
kind of
speculative
advice calls,
but the
collectability
of the
redemptions
themselves,
we are
intrigued and
excited about
those long
term as
first of
their kind
collectibles
on Top
Shot.
So sure it
doesn't have a
corresponding
moment to it,
but we think
they're quite
special in
their own
right.
Interesting.
So that is
another factor
to consider
as the
redemption
supply
continues to
dwindle
as the
playoffs go
forward.
So that will
be one to
watch.
Maybe we
pull back
here a little
bit, Jacob,
and kind of
talk about
NBA Top
Shots kind
of core
strategy here.
So we're
seeing this
new kind of
burn slash
crafting feature
here with
the redemptions.
Does this
kind of become
a new core
part of the
moment rollout
strategy and
maybe kind of
what has
driven some of
this direction?
So I think
on the three
fronts we were
talking about
earlier, fun,
predictability,
and aligned
incentives between
fans and
collectors, those
are going to be
kind of pivotal
to our long-term
strategy for sure.
Now, whether that
manifests in kind
of a copy and
paste of what
we're doing for
the playoffs for
next season, I
think too soon
to say.
We are definitely
excited to learn a
lot with our
community over the
next three months.
The playoffs are
an incredible
kind of opportunity
for us to kind
of elevate the
excitement and
gather learnings
as we go with
a very kind of
time-boxed window
to get those
learnings.
But I'm going
to kind of hold
off.
I think what I
can say for
certain is that
the predictability
of the rules being
kind of laid out
for you up front,
that's super
important to us
moving forward.
forward and
better kind of
aligning incentives
so a collector
doesn't necessarily
feel upset when
a new moment from
their favorite
player comes out
because it actually
kind of works
with their
collection rather
than against.
Those are pretty
core pillars for
us moving forward.
Got it.
That makes sense.
I think similar
kind of high-level
question here.
I'm curious for
your thoughts on
how season three,
how season four
have gone in
your opinion
and any other
changes that
have kind of
been made
behind the
scenes with
NBA Top Shot,
how you feel
like those have
gone, how
those have been
received in the
market.
Yeah, I think
that for
to say
kind of the
most important
thing, the
last two seasons
have been
incredibly helpful
for us to
kind of galvanize
around what's
most important
for our product
long-term to
kind of work
and align
with our
community in
a more kind
of productive
fashion.
So there have
been some
successes, some
failures.
I think we're
seeing a lot
of success or
a lot of
excitement around
player leaderboard,
especially this
year with
leaderboard rewards
coming out.
So we've seen
a lot of
kind of competition
to get to the
top of the
Paolo Vancaro
leaderboard because
there will be
kind of a
reward tied to
the rookie of
the year,
right?
So there's
some speculation
that Paolo
will be rookie
of the year
and his top
collectors will
benefit because
they bet on
him early.
As far as
like on the
whole, I
think we are
more focused
than ever on
kind of creating
that predictability.
One thing that
we have done
the past two
years, which I
think is probably
the wrong way
for us to do
it long-term,
is lay out some
kind of loose
frameworks of
these are the
sets we're
having and
a player might
make it into
any number of
those sets and
just be a little
more specific and
constrained with
our kind of
approach up front
so collectors can
kind of plan
accordingly.
I think
specifically earlier
in the year we
had an instance
where Donvin
Mitchell had both
the fresh threads
rare because he
changed teams in
the offseason
followed by a
throwdown within
a few weeks of
each other.
while that was
kind of aligned
with the roadmap
we had put up
front of, you
know, players
can get up to
X number of
bears, being
more specific
and deliberate
with kind of
the approach
long-term will
only benefit
the entire
community.
Yeah, that
makes sense and
it does feel
like NBA Top
Shot is kind
of reacting to
some community
feedback and
some commentary
that's been
provided over the
last months and
years and it
feels like some
changes are
being made in
some rollout
strategies and
it seems like
they're being
received well
at least in the
conversations that
I'm having here
recently.
Peter, I'm
curious for
kind of your
perspective as
someone who was
kind of early
to NBA Top
Shot, kind of
how you're
feeling about
the game
overall now
collecting and
just approaching
this, the end
of season four
here, if you
don't mind
sharing a few
thoughts.
Yeah, I'm
really excited
about the
redemptions in
this playoff
game.
I think that
just broadly
the whole
industry, we
had this crazy
rise up and
some consolidation
and I think it's
definitely a time
to reflect and
learn and it's
really encouraging
to hear the
transparency that
Jacob just
mentioned.
I also think
the in real
life events are
really cool.
That's another
thing.
I believe you
can win a
trip to the
finals through
this playoff
thing, which
is really
awesome and
I had a
great experience
going to a
Warriors Nuggets
game last
year with the
Top Shot
crew.
So I love
seeing that
stuff.
That's something
I think we
were really
all collectively
excited about
with Dapper
and Top Shot
and their
partnership with
the NBA.
So I'm
still really
excited.
I think this
is the future
of trading
cards and
just excited to
see Dapper
continue to
experiment and
I really love
these games
where you can
bet on
players and
also make
futures bets.
So I'm
just super
stoked about
that and
excited to
see what's
going to
come here
down the
pipeline.
I totally
agree with
you in that
this is the
future of
collecting
trading cards
digitally versus
physically.
And you
brought up a
great point on
the rewards.
And Jacob, I
don't know that
we really hit
that so far.
So I'd love
we just have a
few minutes
left in the
spaces here
ahead of the
packs dropping
in nine minutes
now.
Can you let
us know what
those rewards
are here ahead
of the
champions path?
Yeah, so any
collector who
purchases a
pack in
April becomes
eligible to
get flown out
all access
for all
inclusive for
games one and
two of the
finals or
games three and
four of the
finals.
So there will
be separate
prizing there.
So flights
paid for,
accommodations,
paid for,
and the
opportunity to
hopefully watch
your favorite
team in the
finals, obviously
the stuff that
dreams are made
of for NBA
fans.
So you've got
that layer, of
course.
And then, yeah,
I think to
Peter's point,
there have been
throughout the
year a ton of
kind of IRL
experiences.
We've had
collectors, top
Pistons collectors
getting to cook
with Cade
Cunningham in a
Detroit vegan
kitchen.
And we've had
collectors get to
drink wine and
eat a meal with
Klay Thompson
after a game in
the Bay.
So those things
are absolutely
happening as
well.
Currently, nothing
is scheduled for
the playoffs on
that front, but
the all-inclusive
experiences are
something that we
think will appeal
to not just our
existing community,
but also to
newer collectors
who are on the
fence about
purchasing their
first pack and
want to check it
out for the
first time.
Yeah, those are
some awesome
awards, rewards.
so kudos to
you guys for
putting those
together.
Those are
intriguing, I
think, to
anyone who
even if you
don't feel
like you've
got a shot
to collect
all the
moments and
go through
the whole
champion's
path, just
being entered
into these
raffle-style
reward programs
is kind of a
fun incentive
and definitely
one that is
appealing to you.
That's one
thing that I
think just in
general that is
super important
and I'm glad
that Dapper's
leaning into.
We've seen
this with DFS
and sports
betting and
obviously with
collecting, I
think kind of
the biggest
allure is that
you can invest
a little bit of
money with the
small chance to
win something
great and I
think that's the
allure with
ripping packs.
I think that's
the allure with
playing these
millionaire makers
on draft games
or whatever.
I think that's
the allure
that you see
just some of
these formats
where people
want to risk
a little with
the opportunity
to win a lot
and that's
something that
just makes me
so excited
about the
future for
Dapper is
they have all
these amazing
IRL opportunities
and obviously
there's moments
that can be
life-changing
and I really
like the idea
of just like
hey, I might
not be able
to go crazy
in terms of
investing a bunch
of money to
go after this
but I'm in
there once or
twice and I'm
in that raffle
and hopefully
someone we know
wins that
finals experience
because it just
sounds epic
so I think
that's a really
smart thing
to continue
to lean into
and it's
something that
we've seen
help grow
these other
industries that
are similar
to kind of
the NFT
collecting
and sports
games that
we see out
there in
the Web3
space.
Yeah, Peter,
I'm right there
with you.
I definitely
think it's a
way to appeal
to the masses
and I know
it's hard for me
with two
toddlers at
home to
watch all
the NBA
playoffs to
have a real
read on who
the best
players are to
go after.
Of course, I
can read the
strategy blogs and
pieces that we'll
have over on
Lucky Trader
but just having
kind of a
smaller minnow
to use kind of
the opposite of
a whale's term
here to get in
and play and
have a shot at
some cool upside.
I like that
aspect quite a
bit.
kudos to the
team for putting
that in there.
Jacob, we've
got about five
minutes left
here before
the pack drop.
What else do
people need to
know?
Where should
they head if
they're interested
in buying a
pack and
anything you
want to leave
us with?
Yeah,
nbatopshot.com.
Can't miss it.
There are two
pack listings up
on the page.
Again, the
$10 drop in
dimes packs
containing one
redemption and
two common
moments from the
regular season
and the
three-point
packs that
contain three
redemptions and
seven common
moments from the
regular season.
Those are going
for $29.
So, we
anticipate that
the packs will
be available.
They'll be
available starting
in five minutes
and there are
about, I want
to say,
40,000 or so
of the single
moment packs and
about 80,000 of
the drop in
dimes.
Maybe I have
the inverse on
that, 80,000
of the single
mode packs.
So, quite a
lot of packs for
you all to
consume.
Obviously, the
more you can
get, the more
you can start
planning ahead for
your redemption
strategy.
We anticipate
that between, as
Peter laid out,
the three in the
east and a wide
open field in the
west, there are
going to be a lot
of different
collecting strategies
that you can
take.
I can't really
think of anything
else that we
didn't cover.
Tyler, I think
you ran the
gambit really well,
so I appreciate
you having me and
really awesome
stuff.
Can't wait.
Yeah, well,
Jacob, thanks for
coming on.
Definitely excited
about this new
game, this new
direction for
NBA Top Shot.
I think it's
really fun.
I'll definitely
be jumping in
and taking a
hard look at
this one as
well.
So, if
listeners are
interested, head
over to NBA
Top Shot.
You've got three
minutes left
before these
playoff packs go
on sale.
I want to make
sure folks have
enough time to
get over
there and
get set up
and logged
Jacob, it's
been amazing
having you.
Peter, thank
you so much
for jumping
on with us.
Anything from
your perspective,
any closing
words, things
you're most
excited about
for the
playoffs here?
Yeah, don't
get afraid to
be contrarian,
especially in the
West as things
One common
theme is
recency bias,
and I think a
lot of people
are going to
have that with
these series.
There'll be
opportunities from
a collecting
standpoint, from
a betting
standpoint.
Those are
some closing
thoughts, and
hope everyone
enjoys the
playoffs as
much as I
am, and
it should be
really fun.
Thanks, Jacob,
for doing this,
and really
excited to see
how this plays
out for Top
Shot.
Awesome, Peter.
Thank you to
Jason Bales as
well for jumping
on with us.
Make sure to
head over to
LuckyTrader and
check out his
overview guide with
some strategy tips.
We'll continue to
be pumping out
some content
regarding the
Champions Path
and NBA Top
Shot over on
LuckyTrader.
I guess, yeah,
we've got about
two minutes left.
If you're
interested, again,
head over to
NBA Top
Shot and
check out
these packs.
I think that
is it for
today.
Thank you to
all of our
listeners for
joining us here
this afternoon.
Thanks to the
speakers for
jumping up.
This has been
a fun one.
Everyone, go
out.
Enjoy your
Monday.
Jacob, good
luck with the
pack drop and
everything.
We'll talk to
you guys soon.
Enjoy these
playoffs, guys.
Thanks so
much.
May the pack
gods be with
you all.
Thanks.
Awesome.
Bye, everybody.
