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Maket Talk- MASSIVE PUMPS!BTC hits 104k and altcoins going parabolic!
Recorded: May 9, 2025 Duration: 1:55:42Space Recording
Short Summary
Bitcoin surpasses $100,000, signaling a bullish trend in the crypto market, while Ethereum and Solana approach their March highs, indicating renewed investor interest. Institutional adoption of Bitcoin is on the rise, with companies pivoting to Bitcoin treasury strategies, suggesting significant growth potential in the coming months.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. It's alright! so good today Ain't nobody standing in the way. Tomorrow, there's going to be a fight to pay.
Oh, dear lady, it's so good today.
There's a mountain that I have to climb.
It's so high, and I'm so behind.
Get on, huh?
Move on out.
Ain't no place to have a head in town. I'm going so good today. There's a rhythm that I have to cross through the sky.
And it calls you.
I'm on bed, I'm on right.
Right now, I'm on the ground. I'm feeling so good today.
It's all fun.
And they can give away.
I know it.
I'm gonna be a price to pay.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today.
I'm feeling so good today. I'm feeling so good today. oh
i'm Come on! Got a job to do!
Got to get on up!
Get on up!
Get on up!
Get on up!
So good today!
Get on fire.
Spending my way.
I know I feel like you're raising.
I feel it.
So good today.
There's a mountain that I'm trying to climb.
It's so high.
And I'm so high.
Get on fire. and move on.
Ain't no place for happy.
We're all back so good today.
Ain't nobody standing in the way.
It's gonna be a participation.
I'm feeling so good today. Hey. Going to be a participation. What's up guys? Welcome away from the winter. What's up, guys?
Welcome back to the show.
I'm sure you guys are all ecstatic to see the prices here, right?
Myself and Donnie have, I think we've been some of the top people on Spaces on this entire app
that have called this move precisely off the bottom giving you guys clear targets of course donnie
was uh exceptionally more bullish on eth than myself but most importantly we've all agreed
that btc is going well above 100 000 and here we are btc cleared through 100 000
cleared through the march highs the fe February highs, the yearly open.
And that is with, ladies and gentlemen, both the QQQ and the SPX, both below their yearly open,
which myself and Donnie, I mean, we think that we're going to flip the yearly open
and pretty aggressively. I personally think the S&P
500 is going to go well into price discovery over the summer and absolutely shock people. I think
the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are going to absolutely roar to new all-time highs. And if you guys
remember, while gold was surging week over week as Bitcoin depleted, we were
discussing on these spaces that at some point, that type of trade is going to come to the
crypto markets.
And look at what's happened.
BTC is about to put in one of its highest weekly closes ever, and it is a sneeze away
from going into price discovery and let me tell you
this environment this kind of price action truly truly does remind me of uh last year when cz got
out of jail when btc finally broke out of 65 68k but more importantly know, you might be asking yourself, how is there a regime where crypto sustains a period of multi-week or perhaps even multi-month breadth while the equity markets remain flat?
Or, you know, what if they remain flat with the S&P just consolidating between $56 to $5,700 and the Qs consolidate
where they're at right now. How is it possible for crypto to sustain some breadth? Well,
we've seen this kind of price action before. If you guys just circle back to the Bitcoin chart
when Bitcoin bottomed in August of 2023 and then put in a double bottom right around Labor Day in September,
you'll see BTC had an incredible move of over 55%, 60% while the S&P proceeded to go into a
downtrend from 4,500 down to almost 4,000. And once Bitcoin made new year-to-date highs in 2023 to almost 40,000,
that is when you had things like the S&P, IWM, and other indices start to perform.
So we've got Trump, who worked out a trade deal with China.
Apparently, they're trying to work out a deal of 80% tariffs, but it's up to Bissette.
Again, this is just coming from a
truth social post from Trump. And of course, you guys who follow me on my personal profile will
know that I've been saying that the Fed is injecting billions into the Treasury market.
And that's just what I'm reading on the internet. I understand that some people,
you know, they want to be more detailed, but bullish headlines are bullish headlines.
We have CPI coming in. I think CPI is next week. And I mean, CPI right now just doesn't really
carry that much weight as much anymore as it did in 2023 and early parts of 2024.
If we just look at the true relation data,
future prints are probably just going to go towards Powell's target
going into the end of the year.
And, I mean, outside of that, guys, we look at Ethereum and Sol.
They're close to testing their March highs.
You flip those and you probably start to see some of these more speculative on-chain tokens rally quite significantly.
We have Pepe just melting absolute face.
But yet a lot of those same reply guys that were angry at me for being bearish altcoins back in February and March are nowhere to be found.
And it just continues to show me that the path of resistance, the least path of resistance
still remains to the upside.
A lot of people that were bagholding many altcoins as we trended lower started to, quote
unquote, buy the dip, but on leverage, aka they would sell their spot positions
and then put that notional USDT amount at that time
on their Mexi account or their Bybit account,
KuCoin account, whatever derivative product
they wanted to use to long these assets
that were just depleting due to macro headwinds, right? Which was kind of egregious. Yet again, guys,
as we've been discussing on Spaces, when you have such a quick drawdown of over 20%
on the S&P and the NASDAQ, and I did go on Uncle Joe's Space, or no, I think he came on our Space
on Monday, and I was saying when you have such a vicious drawdown
of over 20% on the S&P and the NASDAQ
in such a short period amount of time,
you have to expect the inverse to happen, right?
Like if you have such a massive melt-up, right?
Just for example, when BTC went from 28K
to 64, 65K in 2021, you have to expect a correction.
Just as there's corrections to the downside, there's corrections to the upside.
And I mean, from what I remember, Trump at 4,800 S&P, when we opened up on pre-market trading, he posted on True Social saying now is a great time to buy.
So it's quite fascinating to see the sentiment and the theatrics on this platform.
When we saw Besant and Trump saying that the market is going to correct when the S&P was above 6,000. BTC was consolidating at 98, 99. But when Bessent at 4,800, 4,900 S&P, 5,000 S&P, said that the VIX was topped and Trump
said it's a good time to buy, people want to freak out and try to call their bluff.
And I've gone on record to say, and many people have gone on record to say that Besant is kind of like a pseudo Jerome Powell from 2022, right?
Where the entire market just hinged on Powell's word.
Fast forward three years later, Jerome is now a grandpa.
He's been saying the same thing.
He's been saying the same thing at every FOMC meeting over the last 12 months.
You know, we're reliant on data.
We like the progress that we're making.
We still remain to our target at 2% inflation, yada, yada, yada.
And at some point, we all know they're likely going to cut in Q4 or in Q1 of next year.
Cuts are probably going to come at least a couple more times before.
They're going to cut next month i hope so no joe i actually heard i actually heard um that they're going to be
they're going to be starting in july no listen they don't like to spook the market they've told
the market the cut is coming so the cut's coming next month it's priced in all right so that means
the melt-up is going to happen like the the queues are going to 700 the s&p is probably going to 6900
and btc is probably going to 130k um you know when we hit 73k this is a this is probably the
last time i'll probably ever mention that period when we bottomed out at 73 and still hit 90 bucks.
I just think it's kind of boring when people keep mentioning about how they call the bottom and all that.
So this is the last time that I'll mention it, honestly.
But we hit those numbers with the sentiment and all that stuff and the drawdown we had on the indices.
I didn't expect us to have that quick of a drawdown.
I'm sure nobody else did, right?
4,800 S&P in six weeks when we were trading at almost 6,200.
That's obscene.
You had the MAG7, Microsoft, Google, Apple all having similar drawdowns relative to their 2022 drawdown.
It was crazy.
I think the NASDAq drew down like 27%.
That's obscene.
Crazy, honestly.
In six weeks?
And Powell didn't even intervene.
You had Besant saying that they have the tools necessary
in case something happens, right?
They were saying we have the money printer ready to go.
But I digress
and um i'll just say when you have that kind of stuff happen it's kind of like the beginning of
a new cycle we had that mini cycle from 15k btc the 32 then from 24 to 73 74 and then of course
48 to 108 and now 73k to wherever it is we're going to top next and in
between those mini cycles i'm sure you guys are aware there have been many narratives throughout
that time you had the nvidia story in 23 the mstr story in 24 and i'm not sure what it's going to be
in 25 i think it's hood we'll see i think think hood can capture a lot of micro strategies, market share, especially if rates are going to continue to come down and we go more into an era of easier monetary policy.
That's just my dubious take. I want to welcome up Joe. I want to welcome up Donnie. That's kind of my opening statement, guys.
I want to welcome up Joe. I want to welcome up Donnie. That's kind of my opening statement, guys.
I think we're going to have Josh come up here. I think he's streaming right now. I'm not too sure.
But first and foremost, I want to thank you guys so much for tuning into the show, whether you're listening live or to the recording and all that stuff.
Before we get started, I just want to say what a beautiful day here in South Florida.
Hope you're all doing fine.
I just had a New York strip ribeye with an organic banana and cotton candy grapes and skier and a protein waffle with Nutella.
I'm trying to grow as big as joe here um in case you guys don't know joe um is about seven
feet tall and he's actually bulking i've been training him and he's now at about 350 pounds
he's going to be the largest competitor in uh in physique it's a bodybuilding division it's
classic bodybuilding and i'm looking forward uh to to joe's progress but uh
nonetheless guys if you guys can go ahead and uh show some of the space like retweet the space all
that stuff feel free to comment on what you guys um see in the markets or any questions you want
to throw at us and uh stuff like that so we're gonna get started man first and foremost i want
to pass it on over as always
to donnie donnie we've been talking about 100k plus btc we've been talking about uh soul and eath
catching up albeit it has been a bit grindy we're starting to see a lot of these short squeezes happening on chain on both ETH and SOUL. And, you know, I still see more muted volume
on X, which signifies to me that we still have a lot higher to go. And we're probably not going
to see the same amount of volume on this platform or even on YouTube until um either eth or soul make new cycle highs aka since
the ftx low so that would entail east going to 4400 um or soul going above 300 or perhaps even suey
going into uh price discovery uh i think suey is following the same story as Solana did during the second half of 2023
or second half of 2024.
I think Sui has a lot of market share to capture from Sol, especially after the whole pump
fund craze, a lot of those market makers being destroyed and so trying to find its fundamental narrative a new
narrative right but uh want to welcome you up here man i'm sure the weekly wrap-up is going to be
incredible man how are you feeling things are coming back man it's going to be uh absolutely
insane discussing markets over the next hour man the people are gonna fucking love it they're gonna
love it man i agree i agree brother and you've been really
good at hosting these spaces why was the best host that i've seen you know on all of these
crypto spaces keeps it always positive uh calm collective and really good at you know discussing
all the important topics that actually the people in crypto want to hear because you know they're
trying to make a buck or two trading all the coins that we have to trade if you're not specifically in BTC, right? People want to use different
measures in this market to be able to outpace BTC so they can accumulate it. That's one of the
best ways to actually acquire more BTC. Get good at being in and out of the market, hit winning trades, and then rotate that into BTC.
So, yeah.
Good on you, Wabi, for
being such a good Spaces host.
We've called so many bangers
on the last
eight months, maybe, on Spaces
from the lows,
from every wave up that we've had in the market.
And I think we're going to have that opportunity
come back right now which is exciting so yeah the market is going as expected from the lows
i'm i shared uh just a mini thread i posted this morning of basically the lower low setup that i
posted in the uh my pinned thread on my page when i was calling for all-time highs in May and June.
You need to understand why these accumulation setups are so powerful
when you have a really good backdrop in terms of like,
let's call it a macro picture of what's going on.
Every time you have a range, specifically after a big correction,
and you deviate the low of that range, that's where you get maximum bearish sentiment on the deviations of the low. And it happens every time, right?
Retail sells low, someone is buying down there, filling a buy order, and they need some time spent down at this range low to accumulate cheap.
Sorry, just one sec sorry i'm back um i was gonna say bro like from your comment that you made
on spaces hosting and all that uh those are some kind words uh But if you guys tuned in to yesterday's Market Check,
the YouTube audience compared to the Twitter audience are like night and day.
Twitter has turned more polite and more like cool, calm, and collected.
But on YouTube, you just have the most obscene people commenting some pretty mean stuff, man.
It was quite crazy i think the audiences
are honestly completely different because when i went on market check people thought that i remained
bearish um even after those lows i i went on when eth was at 2400 um. BTC was pushing against 88,
and this was in mid-March or something like that.
And they thought that I remained with that stand.
So it tells me that, one, they don't tune into these spaces,
and two, they're not really on X because they don't follow BB or anyone a part of the team.
So it's quite different, man.
It's quite different how this market really shakes people out
and they just get frustrated and just get crazy, man,
after they blow their load.
Yeah, when money's on the line,
people get extra emotional and stuff like that.
But yeah, I've been anonymously listening in a bunch of spaces
just over the last couple of weeks just to get a sentiment check and stuff.
But honestly, apart from this space and maybe a couple of others,
it always ends up with hate and argumentative talk
instead of just chat.
chat. You say your part, you say what you're seeing, move on to the next person, whatever.
You say you're a part, you say what you're seeing,
move on to the next person, whatever.
It's really toxic other than this space from my lens. But yeah, anyway.
When you have these accumulation setups, a lot of time spent at these lows is one,
scary for people who don't know what's about to happen on the reversal.
And two, it gives a lot of time for whoever's buying at those lows, you know, you can speculate
who for them to actually fill large positions, right? And, you know, on those deviations is
typically where you get a bunch of volume, because people are panic selling at the lows,
and that's where they get to fill, you know fill massive buy orders. So even like I was arguing, even if you actually think the world is going to melt,
from a technical perspective, if you're looking at this chart,
you should be looking to long from this level.
It's a weekly market structure level at 74k.
You know, a very clean retest of that level.
And you're actually getting buys pushing you back into that range.
A.k. range aka there is
demand down there and you're consistently deviating over and over implying that someone's
filling a decent position there. So even just from that alone, you should be looking to long
and obviously if BTC performs well from that bottom, let's say a 10, 15, 20% move,
if you hit an altcoin that's tracing along with the Bitcoin price action pretty well,
like Sui, which, you know, I think, Wabi, did you enter that trade as well?
I think a lot of people hit the Sui trade around like two something.
No, for Sui, I just mainly use it as confluence.
Like if Sui trades, if Suey broke out of like 210 where the
daily emas were that just gives more confluence for everything on chain um i didn't actually like
buy the actual suey spot token because if suey marks up like another 2x from here everything
um that's on chain on soul that's trending everything that's
on chain on sui that's trending everything that's trending on uh say like base that's trending
it's just going to mark up um it's kind of like say with eth for example if eth breaks through
uh 2800 2900 i think eth makes a new uh cycle high at like 4400 and you're even seeing things like
kita actually break through 100 mil and the last time that you had something on eth that marked up
to like a nine figure plus valuation it was during november and december during the ai trade so i do think like most people
already priced out in their head out of anything on eth but if you go on base like the opportunities
are are endless yeah like just look at ray ray is up 13, 14x off of the low. It went from 5 mil in November to like 150 and then back to 5 mil. And there were no fundamental changes.
before I joined Twitter, I was a huge fundamentals guy, massive fundamentals guy.
And this market so far since the FTX low has shown you that fundamentals usually have two rounds.
You had Casper having two rounds, first half of 23, second half of 23 as well.
Same thing with Injective.
And even with Ondo, that had two rounds as well.
So with these fundamental tokens, you usually have like two seasons
because the market is graceful enough for that.
And even just look at virtuals. if if BTC gets into price discovery you are now seeing that now that BTC is
leading and BTC kind of stalls out lower timeframe you're now seeing ETH catch
somewhat of a bid and it's actually outperforming soul lower timeframe
which I honestly didn't expect I'll'll admit that I was wrong on that end. I've been bullish on SolEath pretty much since early 23.
And if SolEath is going to bleed and ETH leads,
it's still going to result in people that are on-chain making a lot more money.
So you can be wrong on a narrative and still make money in in this case
right so um if eth is going to have its time to shine it's it it has to be now it's going to be
now and it is now and uh now we just have to see the etf inflows kick in you see those etf inflows
kick in it's been about 10 months since the etf launch. Larry Finkelstein gets up there again on his soapbox talking about ETH.
Then we could see $4,400, $4,800.
Those are my thoughts on that, man.
Yeah, definitely.
I think ETH, from what it's shown me, and I'll get into it now,
I think definitely that's the bottom for ETH.
And even more confluence, the fact that ETH BTC is starting to show signals
of potentially reversing the chart,
which is just going to fuel more and more liquidity going to ETH from here.
So yeah, I'll go back to what I was just finishing off there.
But yeah, the technical setup on BTC,
you have confluence when you see something like that
to go and open a long on something like Sui,
which I ended up doing.
And hit that in my Discord with, I think,
most of the Discord around $2.14.
Some of them got in sub $2 as well.
And the main thing with Sui was that I saw
that it was going to be the first pretty much mover
off the low just based off of how well the chart was holding up even on the downtrend.
It was basically just a little bit more down than ETH, for example.
And a lot of other altcoins were down like 70%, 80%, 90%, 95%.
And it was showing a very similar one-to-one sort of price action with BTC.
So yeah, that was the time to long. But now
you're slowly going to realize that the trend is up and probably up only for months. So you're
going to be forced to buy. And if you don't think so yet, I feel like the market is going to convince
you one week at a time and you're going to want enter, and it's just going to be much later.
And you'll still be forced to enter
if you want to make anything on altcoins, pretty much,
unless you want to risk buying new stuff,
which has a high chance of rugging and stuff like that.
But for the main tokens that are, quote-unquote,
winning projects from here,
while you have this window of opportunity,
you're going to just have to bite the bullet
and have the
courage to enter positions, which is hard if you didn't take that trade on when BTC was
at the 75k lows, right?
Because your entry is essentially safe to the point where, okay, if this trend does
reverse and you actually see it, then you can get out in profit and at the absolute
worst, break even. But if
you're entering now, your invalidation can be at a loss, which sucks. And that's what fuels the
rally anyway, is the fear of entering because what if it goes lower and then you realize it's not
going lower and everybody sort of slowly capitulates into long. And once everyone is long, that's
where you get the first big correction.
So I think we're
months away from that, and I'll kind of explain
the backdrop of why I think that
as well. So the
main thing at those lows was it was
very unclear what Trump
wants to do with
his new tariff
regime, right? So if
you just had to
put it in its simplest form,
there was basically two outcomes.
He goes full aggression on putting Main Street forward,
which was essentially the thing that the market
did not want to be risk on during,
which would be essentially what people were calling
for a recession and all this kind of stuff
before things get better.
He's wanting to transfer essentially a top-heavy economy,
which was a main flow of capital going to Wall Street,
stocks, things like that,
and to kind of reshore manufacturing,
all this kind of stuff.
I won't go too deep into how
and all the details into that.
But basically it was that.
He wanted to put Main Street forth.
He wanted to kind of reset the economy
with this new trade regime.
So the market did not want to be risk-on during that.
And it was adding to the already overdue correction
we had from the DXY rally back in Q4 of 2024.
So it was a narrative-assisted bearish move
and also a lot of uncertainty
because it's like, well, if he actually goes through with this,
we might have to go through six months of a downtrend in markets as things like slowly deflate, right?
But now I think the signal that they've given us, which we've gone over for many, many weeks now,
even during this bottoming phase is, okay, things are starting to break. The financial system of the
US is not looking as sturdy as maybe that they thought that it was if they wanted to go
that route. And, you know, that was given away by the bond market volatility, which, you know,
right after the move index pumped to like 140. And you saw the US 10 year just whiplashing up and
down to where they came out publicly and started, you know, reassuring the market that they got,
we have the tools to intervene, Even the Fed started saying stuff.
And then as of recently, Trump backed off of his tariff posturing in a big way.
But still nothing is confirmed.
Now you're still in this predicament as a market participant.
Are they going to go through that first outcome or are they going to go to this new outcome,
through that first outcome or are they going to go to this new outcome, which is basically
just backing off from the tariffs and kind of defaulting back to how the economy was
run prior, right?
So how the economy was run prior is still with a large deficit, right?
With all of these foreign nations and stuff like that.
So that's an inflationary setup.
And if the market can confirm that that's the actual route that they want to take, you know, by getting these deals done with China, we see that the tariffs are actually nowhere near as bad as intended, you know, 140%, all that kind of stuff.
They kind of default to a much lower level.
So the deficit is still there.
It's still an inflationary setup.
And now they're wanting to do tax cuts as well on top of this.
Melt up, brother, melt up. There is no in between we're gonna melt up yeah and this is the thing is if we do default
back to an inflationary setup with a big but uh with a big deficit and tax cuts you know trillions
of dollars of tax cuts on top of this plus they're're deregulating crypto and pushing it kind of as an asset,
like they're adopting it essentially, the market is going to balloon if they actually
confirm that.
Because you're having to, people went risk off in the fear that we're going to have to
go through a six month recession, which is the thing that we picked up on way earlier
of being like, okay, the market is telling us recession first, Q4 100% bullish.
So just from that, without even knowing any of this info,
I was like, okay, there's definitely something else being cooked up
to shake people out right now.
And likely they reverse the script.
And now the script is being reversed to defaulting back to that deficit,
which is highly inflationary and all the stuff I just mentioned.
So if they confirm that over the next
one to three months, everyone's going to go risk on again, right? Because who doesn't want to hold
assets, especially assets that they're pushing and marketing in an inflationary setup
throughout all of 2025, right? So as that incrementally confirms itself, you're going
to have people also incrementally
getting back into the markets.
And now I think recently Trump even said, buy the stock market or something like that.
So they're making it clear day by day, week by week that they are reverting to this
second outcome, which is the more positive one for risk assets.
And yeah, we picked up on this pretty early
and bought the bottom,
which again, makes our positioning a lot safer
than having to buy as you get the confirmation.
But even if you look at some of the top funds
or fund managers, things like that,
they've all been risked off
because they don't have this confirmation of,
okay, which route is the Trump admin going to take?
Even Jerome Powell and stuff at this Fed meeting made it very clear that they can't do anything until they have clarity on the tariffs.
So that's the Trump put that we keep talking about, which needs to play out if we want to get this melt up, which it looks like it's incrementally playing out.
this melt up, which it looks like it's incrementally playing out. And if it does play out,
if we get some sort of confirmation to where the market can realize that, then yeah, you're going
to get a summer melt up. And I think it is coming because of the shift that they had in tone ever
since the bond market started being very volatile. So yeah, look for that over the next, I would say probably
four weeks, but over the next one to three months, I just think it's sooner rather than later based
off of all the technicals on every single chart that we've been posting. But yeah, that's going
to cause a massive, massive melt up because now you're going back to, oh, shit, like, we're back
to risk. So deadly, deadly setup up and people are sidelined because
you know they either sold the low or they just sold everything and they need to wait for this
clarity just like uh jerome powell was saying wait and see wait and see a hundred times in that
meeting everyone's waiting to see uh but you know when they get their confirmation it's just going
to be at much higher prices it should be the inverse of what happened people should be panicking to buy assets like i've had
trouble falling asleep because i just simply don't own enough crypto like i woke up today
at like 7 a.m and i had trouble falling back asleep because like i know what's coming and
you know i've been trying to save people on my time and people think i'm joking that's that's
the crazy part like whenever you have a thesis on the market you have to pound the table at it, right? You can't tweet cryptically,
try to be like Batman on the timeline. Like you have to give your thoughts raw.
And I was telling people like,
you need to save your family from financial catastrophe
because you will be priced out.
You will be priced out.
And I think as crypto participants,
we've been so conditioned to the
four-year cycle thinking oh you know i'm just gonna wait until q1 the melt up and then q2 q3
are gonna be you know choppy and then in q4 it's the parabolic move when in reality i think we're
in a different regime donnie uh since those lows in q4 of 2022 i think we're in a different regime donnie uh since those lows in q4 of 2022
i think we're in a completely different regime and if we just look at the business cycles we've
been discussing work how how are markets close to a blow off top if the business cycle is
approaching a low and business cycles to the upside business cycles to the upside can last up to two years remember covid
covid cycle was from march of 2020 and it lasted until late march of 2022 so it's more probable
that we go through these many bears and many bulls of risk on and risk off until the liquidity tap comes back on,
rather than having this massive blow-off top in Q4, markets are cooked,
or as the narrative happened when Trump went into office that, all right, stagflation period,
like 2000 and 2003, when the market has shown us over the last 15 years, this economy,
right, at least in America, is not ever going to withstand a year plus of downturn. Even the 2022
bear market only lasted like nine months, 10 months, if that. So it's just rapid velocity to the downside, front-running that, to reprogram the best tech that's ever existed in the stock market, which is number go up.
It is the biggest Ponzi ever.
It's the biggest Ponzi ever.
Like, imagine telling someone on the street, like, hey, your future is determined on how high the S&P goes. Like, try telling that
to a Zoomer that's like 22 years old and telling them, depending on how high the S&P goes,
it determines your retirement age if you just keep doing what you're doing, right? Working and
all that stuff, right? And we're going to get to a period similar to the melt up we had in 2020.
I call it an echo bubble. Right. I'm calling it an echo bubble because I don't think we'll ever have that extreme melt up until UBI comes where risk assets are going to price up so severely that even when they correct people hesitating to buy right now are gonna regret not buying that high or low
that comes after we melt up right so the best time is honestly like now over the next 12 months
um as crazy as that sounds as ridiculous as that sounds man this melt up is gonna be
one for the books like there is no room to try to be conservative um in my
opinion right i don't think like select alts go to obscene valuations but overall i think total
three makes a new cycle high and i think the iwm um most certainly this time around blasts into price discovery.
And we know once we have that IWM confirmation, man,
we were discussing it shortly before the election.
We know how vicious this market can get.
Yeah.
And I agree with kind of now that we've had that accelerated drop,
specifically in the stock market,
I think that just based off of that reset alone,
especially if that asset class does actually start to make new highs over summer,
that we could actually have a longer run over having a shorter run. But I say that with not too much
confidence, just because there is still scenarios where you can actually melt up here and then melt
down in September or October or something like that. There is still that scenario in my head of
the playbook that was run, which is recession now, Q400% bullish, and it's inverted again,
and it's actually gigapump now. Everyone stays bullish for Q4, and you top in Q4 and distribute.
But it's not that simple as just like a sentiment check, right? There has to be a whole lot of other, you know, macro stuff that has to play out for that to actually occur.
But yeah, I won't get into that.
I'll get into this Bitcoin dominance chart that I just shared in the nest.
This was a thread I wrote yesterday on kind of the setup right now because last night, right?
Right after I posted this Bitcoin dominance thread I just went
on my phone on deck screen I had all of the old coins that you know I still hold and like I was
watching and all this kind of stuff and they're all coming back like four or five xing off the
lows and you can just see the volume picking up insanely well. Like Mudang, for example, from the low, it was like 20 mil market cap and had like, I don't know, a few million volume.
And then it was creeping up to like 10, 15.
And then it just shot up to 250 million volume.
And now it's at like 140 mil market cap from 20 mil.
And it happens so fast just from this trigger of Bitcoin dominance giving just a hint of a reversal, but more so actually ETH structurally confirming that bottom by reclaiming that wick, which was the liquidation cascade we had on, you remember, it was maybe an announcement of like a tariff on China or something like that at
the time, February 2nd, maybe. And ETH, you know, dropped all the way down to like 2.1k. We just
reclaimed that. And not just like a slight reclaim, you know, we shot up all the way to almost 2.5k
yesterday. And that's why I was spamming tweets out last night just being like, whoa, this is a very
big like structural shift um you know in the
crypto space alone and if there's any continuation on this trend right specifically on bitcoin
dominance you can get a lot of relief on the old coin market and you're already seeing it like
literally all of these tokens i have like 10 20 plus from the bottom that have literally like
four or five x from disgusting lows but now they're
getting you know back to really good levels especially mooding mooding was an over performer
from the low but you're even seeing coins like fog and all that like fog is literally looking
like it just wants to start ripping back up to like 250 um and you're seeing the volume start
to pick up like even on chain it's already already got 15 million volume and it didn't have this much like three
days ago.
It's all of that effect that happens from ETH performing so well from the low.
But yeah, anyway, back to the chart that I shared.
That's the current Bitcoin dominance chart.
Actually it's updated now.
You did lose that red line with a wick.
You haven't closed below it.
You'd want to see like a
convincing weekly close below that to start building the case that okay we're actually
starting to get some relief back into the old coin market because bear in mind these coins have been
absolutely destroyed over the last like three months so you know if btc is actually wanting
to break the new highs here then it does warrant some relief to the old coin market because naturally people will just bid when they have the confidence of BTC going up.
So I think that's why you're getting the relief and you're seeing that overperformance on ETH.
Now, there's basically two scenarios with this, which I think the second scenario is more likely
if I had to pick, where you kind of potentially trend down to this election rally low that I've marked on the
left there which was kind of that almost old season we had in Q4 of last year where had you
lost 53 I think it was 53 percent yeah you would have had a very sharp move towards like below 50
but we never got that and that's why I never called
for old season. It was very, very, very close. And then we ended up reversing all the way back.
I think you could revisit that low if we do get this confirmation of this summer rally,
for example, which is looking very, very likely now. And yeah, BTC could revisit that level,
but I don't know if it goes straight through
that level. I think you could potentially bounce there or deviation below or maybe a
little bit higher or something when that rally is starting to cool off a bit. Because again,
you do have to have all of the market participants finally be convinced that this trend is going up only before you get a larger correction of like 20, 30% to where they can freak out and sell. And then you just repeat
that cycle over and over. And I think, let's say we do run into like July, August, that's
potentially where you see a recovery in Bitcoin dominance to fuel another leg up in Bitcoin and
Bitcoin dominance. If we do get a
two-part rally here, right? So rally into August or September, let's say, reaccumulate. It's not
actually a distributive top there. And then you continue running into 2026 or start that rally
late 2025. That's potentially where you could see a recovery in Bitcoin dominance. Whether it's a
higher high or lower high, I don't know. I would think lower high because of how much altcoins need to recover from the lows.
But yeah, that's where you would expect follow through after you get that kind of lower high
and then it continues lower into that final sort of blow off top phase, right?
If you did melt straight through that 54% going into July, August, September, October,
whatever, somewhere around there, then that would make me fearful that we're actually
wrapping up the cycle, right?
Because that's just how the sequence of events happens in crypto, right?
Literally, the psychology is that Bitcoin is getting to high enough prices to where
people are taking profit and rotating it down the risk curve until there is nothing left to rotate it into.
And Bitcoin dominance just keeps going lower and lower and lower,
indicating that the cycle is wrapping up.
So that's basically what I'm watching for on this chart is,
are we going to actually melt through that low?
Or are we going to have kind of a stall out in Bitcoin dominance
so we can get a continuation into 2026
and then we start trending below 50 percent um there's another chart shared there
of kind of the 2017 run and again this is completely different but this is also when
altcoin started to um you know flood the market and everything you know, flood the market. And everything, you know, relatively was smaller than it is now, right?
Even altcoin market caps and Bitcoin market caps.
So it still is quite relevant.
You can say that there wasn't that many altcoins and things like that,
but also Bitcoin's market cap was lower back then, right?
So it's not the same, but you can still use this to get some signal
as to how it could play out.
So in May of 2017, I think that's where, because I can't actually zoom into these charts right now.
I think that's where you were approaching the first sort of high timeframe correction.
It was around June.
But into that, you can see Bitcoin dominance that I've marked in like a blue rectangle
started to give, you know, towards the downside.
And you can see, you know btc still rallied
uh up there but eth over performed during that period right so you had your first sort of alt
coin rally uh in that first market wave up which was you know heading into may june and like
approaching july and then you had a rotation back into btcTC from all of these altcoins to essentially,
you know, pull liquidity back to Bitcoin to create this crazy blow off top that you saw in 2017.
And I think you could get something similar because we've seen the altcoin market heat up
and cool down multiple times this cycle, kind of feeding BTC to go higher and higher.
So we haven't had a very meaningful Bitcoin dominance drop yet
other than the Q4 2024 rally.
But I think if we do get a meaningful one here
and we get leading indicators telling us,
okay, we actually could potentially run into 2026 as well,
I think you could see another rotation back into Bitcoin
similarly to how you saw it here
before finally that liquidity is fully dispersed into the old coin market and then you get a crazy
old coin euphoria pretty much to wrap up the cycle very similarly to a two-part sort of uh
play like you had in this 2017 chart that i'm showing you there because you can see after
bitcoin started to approach that 20k level,
Bitcoin dominance absolutely nuked and ETH went crazy.
Perhaps we can do something like the 2012-2013 cycle, right?
2012 was when Bitcoin started first going a bit more mainstream I think
Warren Buffett made his comment on it being rat poison and then in early 2013
Kevin O'Leary went on some show I forgot what it was but Kevin O'Leary went on
he made this like huge speech on blockchain and then Roger Ver he's like
an OG he's like in someone that's like in uh someone that's like
very early on bitcoin one of like the first people that was active on the bitcoin talk forum i think
that's what it was called and he opened up like a few merchants that accepted bitcoin and they all
exceeded like seven figure revenue, which was
pretty impressive, man. Like Bitcoin hadn't even been easily accessible for more than like a year
when that was happening. And Roger Ver made it a bit more easier for people to buy BTC and for
people to purchase goods with BTC. And then I think 2013 was like the acceleration of institutions
becoming aware of BTC and you had Dan Moorhead open up Pantera and Mike
Novogratz was like buying BTC like a madman and then Coinbase had their first
breakout commercial saying buy Bitcoin that was their whole thing buy Bitcoin
right and I think this cycle Donnie now hear me out I think the first part of breakout commercial saying buy bitcoin that was their whole thing buy bitcoin right
and i think this cycle donnie now hear me out i think the first part of the cycle is uh etfs right like etfs going live all that stuff and then the second half is remember that inflation
narrative you were talking about like uh oh like if monetary policy is becoming easier
if the fed is going to start as adding more things to their balance sheet then the average consumer
is going to be you know they're going to start to be priced out from uh from consumer goods right
like food utility stuff like that um so you know the thesis is all right blackrock goes up there on their soapbox
preaches the story gets retail super enthusiastic institutions start coming in and start you know
doing otc deals with these altcoin companies and people get tracked at the top as they always do, right? And that second half, Donnie, probably starts in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year once Powell's term starts to come to an end and probably reaches a crescendo once Trump selects his head for the Federal Reserve, which is probably going to be like obscenely easier, man.
What do you think about that brother yeah I wouldn't have too
much of a clue around like kind of like Jerome Powell getting you know substituted by someone
else I don't really know how that would affect the market to be honest maybe it'll be more obvious
closer to the time but yeah I guess you just have to understand that green candles are the marketing for the exit liquidity. And we just need to go
much higher for that exit liquidity to come in in a meaningful way to where they can actually
distribute a very high market cap token, aka Bitcoin, onto that exit liquidity, right? You
need that interest and the volume,
and I'm sure they'll do the marketing on top of the green candles when that time comes.
But yeah, that's the sad reality of it.
Retail is essentially just exit liquidity.
And there's multiple layers of retail.
We are retail as well, but there's multiple layers. retail right we are retail as well but there's
multiple layers and i'm more so talking about new crypto participants in a big scale right but i
think we're just such a ways away from that just uh you know looking at the cycle cyclically from
a global liquidity standpoint from a business cycle standpoint everything really and even just sentiment
really and even just sentiment yeah man it's uh it's been a pretty great discussion man um
CPI could be a little bit interesting I think it's kind of a nothing burger it's really just
like the next FOMC um probably the announcement of like the end of QT.
They've been... The thing is, though, if the Fed pivots here, right,
then because Joe is pretty confident
that they're going to cut rates in June, right?
If that's true, then, you know,
they made it pretty clear to me at least
that they're waiting on this Trump put
that I mentioned earlier
to be able to actually, you know, do anything.
I think they made that very clear.
So that kind of tells me that the Trump put is coming before the Fed put, right?
Which also adds to the melt-up thesis over the next couple of months.
Mind if we go back to the cycle conversation for a second?
I think we saw two things this week that can maybe give a glimpse
of what the cycle might
look like, especially compared to 2021.
So, you know, one thing that happened this week was we had a vote on the floor of the
United States Senate over the Genius Act, which is a piece of stablecoin legislation,
which was, you know, a bipartisan compromise, should have been sort of a no-brainer to,
you know, stablecoins are already legal in the United States, but to add consumer protections, making sure they're fully backed by
dollars, and to give the regulatory clarity that you need to traditional financial institutions
like banks and large asset managers like BlackRock to get into the stablecoin game. And that bill
failed. It failed because Democrats sort of knifed it at the end. And right now, it doesn't look like there's an
obvious compromise that's going to be able to be reached. And so the bill itself is on life support.
And without the stablecoin bill, we probably do not get the market structure bill, which would
legalize RWA and crypto VC. And I think that's what you'd need to get a ton of liquidity back into the altcoin market.
Now, at the same time, we had strategy world this week, where it seems like there is more interest
than ever before in not just institutional adoption of Bitcoin, but like levered institutional
adoption of Bitcoin. Companies, you know, pivoting into Bitcoin treasury companies,
treasury companies where they issue debt and equity and all sorts of financial instruments
where they issue debt and equity and all sorts of financial instruments to buy more Bitcoin,
to buy more Bitcoin and, you know, trying to create a huge amount of Bitcoin. And we saw
the 21 SPAC and micro strategies plans and lots of copycats out there. And I think when you take
these two things together, you see there's probably not a big bid for altcoins because,
you know, right now VC tokens are doing terribly. I do think that getting federal market structure
and legislation passed might change the
narrative on that, but it looks like that is not going to happen. And so all eyes are on Bitcoin,
which is outperforming. And then you've got all of these companies that are rushing to buy a
shitload of Bitcoin and then lever up as much as they possibly can on that Bitcoin. And to me,
that looks like the start of a parabolic move where you get a huge amount of demand coming into the fixed supply of Bitcoin.
But then because all these companies are super levered, right, whenever that trend is exhausted, you have just massive scale liquidations.
And I think we probably because of that, I didn't think it was going to happen in a cycle, but I think we see a blow off top in Bitcoin like we did not see in 2021. I think it'll look more like 2017 because Bitcoin is once again the focus because there's
just not an altcoin narrative right now.
And there's not a path to the altcoin narrative until market structure legislation gets passed.
And then with Bitcoin, I think we're going to see the same reckless behavior.
I don't think retail is as relevant as it used to be, right?
Bitcoin is so big.
It's a two plus trillion dollar asset.
Retail money isn't
going to really move it other than through people's retirement accounts invested in shit
like MicroStrategy and 21 and these massive levered companies. So I think this is going to be
a pretty insane blow off top. Dang, dude. I have no clue who you are, brother, but Zach, you sound really smart.
I'll tell you what. What does the market structure bill look like and what does it entail for
crypto VC? So we don't really know the details of what a market structure bill would look like
yet, but the terms I'm using here, market structure bill, are basically a fancy word for
some sort of piece of federal legislation that would fix the biggest regulatory problem in But the terms I'm using here, market structure bill, are basically a fancy word for some
sort of piece of federal legislation that would fix the biggest regulatory problem in
crypto, which is figuring out when tokens are securities versus commodities.
And the reason why that matters is under our current securities law, if your token is considered
a security when it trades on the secondary market, you just can't offer it to retail.
There isn't a pathway to do that.
And so in order to, you know, that's why right now, like what, what is in the altcoin market,
it's mostly meme coins, because meme coins aren't securities, even they don't have value.
And then you have, quote, unquote, utility tokens. But the, you know, platforms for utility tokens
don't have users. So you're basically selling gift cards to products and services that like
literally don't exist yet. It's just fucking vaporware, which is why you get these like, you know, 10 figure valuation,
low float, high FDV launches from VCs that just are down only when the VC insider tokens
unlock.
And so the thing that would turn it around is to allow people to do actual tokenized,
you know, equities, right?
Like tokenized stocks, tokenized real estate, tokenized private credit,
all sorts of stuff. And then I think you see a lot of institutional money flow in
to the altcoin space for the app chains and whatever supports these RWA real world tokenized
assets. But in order for that stuff to be legal, which is a prerequisite to the big money coming
in, you need this market structure bill to pass. And so there's, you know, the closest legislation we've seen is this bill
called FIT 21, which is mostly from Coinbase with Andreessen Horowitz putting a bunch of energy into
it. But the politics of that are the Republican Party is not going to expend political capital,
putting that up for a vote, if they can't even get the stablecoin bill passed, which should be politically a lot easier.
I see. I see. Yeah, the low float high FDV stuff is definitely a bit annoying, honestly.
And the all coin market doesn't really have a narrative right now,
because small caps don't really have a narrative right now and we look at iwm and it's kind of been just really doing nothing for multiple years um my dubious take was low rates
some easing right maybe a little batch of qe similar to what we had in Q1 of 2019, send IWM at the very least to its inflation
adjusted all-time high, which at this point is probably close to 300.
And then from there, right, that trickles down to at least the majors on alts, right? Things like ETH, Solana, Hyperliquid, Stewie.
I'm really enthusiastic about Stewie.
It's just that like, you know, as we were discussing,
the valuations for these alts that are a bit more established,
they don't really have that same kind of return
as they did in previous cycles
because now crypto is like
starting to become more mainstream like actively invested into um you ask anyone in the zoomer
generation they've probably dabbled in crypto before they probably buy btc e soul hyperliquid
btc e soul hyper liquid uh with each paycheck i think it's become a standard now like i'd honestly
like honestly if someone says that they they they don't purchase crypto it's like so so what do you
do with your money what exactly do you do with your money as a young individual right um i mean
i remember the sentiment back when BTC was at 15K.
Nobody wanted to touch this asset class, but above 50,000, it's like amazing. I don't understand.
I don't understand. Donna, do you think the same thing will happen with ETH if ETH trades above 5,000. That's when it'll be okay rather than getting bullish like, hey, all right, I don't really like ETH, but ETH is at 1,300.
It might be worth a chance to dabble in rather than just waiting until it goes into price discovery and then thinking, oh, now's a perfect time to see what this thing is about.
Right.
And it makes me feel like as far as adoption cycles, I think Bitcoin is in late majority
and things like Ethan's soul unironically are still in the early majority phase.
And I say that because I do want to give context here.
I don't just want to give loaded statements. You have platforms like Moonshot, which had a valuation of like three, four mil.
I think that was the valuation that Moonshot had.
And then they had that acquisition of nine figures plus.
And it was the fastest growing startup in all of crypto history um like ever because it took
celsius three years it took block five three years uh took coinbase a number of years for it to reach
the top of the app store and moonshot achieved that within six months which is just incredible
and you also have phantom wallet the first ever
crypto wallet to make it to the top five on the App Store and of course we all
know the deal with pump fun right tokenized attention and with ETH ETH
narrative is programmable money without ETH there would be no stable coins and
I've gone on record to say this before.
Like, if I hold stable coins, I'm probably going to hold them on ETH.
So we do have that early majority narrative.
If we're looking at how Tradfly was looking at Bitcoin, say, at like $8K, $9K when Saylor was first buying.
But that's just my take man
yeah um what was the specific question for eth i just i i forgot i think i was just i was just
i was just rambling man i was just rambling yeah i i think um oh yeah yeah i i remember now i was just saying
like um like do you think if if it gets to 5k plus that's when you know you'll have institutions
and all that stuff saying oh this thing might actually be something. Or people will be like, oh, this thing might actually be something.
And that's the setup, as always.
It's always that setup is something has to be over for it to be so back.
And again, my edge in the market is obviously the technicals,
but also paired with knowing enough macro to be able to
analyze the charts better than the macro specialists and then combine a whole bunch
of confluence from tons of different charts together and all this data and stuff.
With ETH, when you have a structural low
confirmation like this and Bitcoin dominance
showing that first sign of reversal, it just indicates to me
that, okay, there's going to be some sort of, I don't even know if you can call it a
sentiment reversal on ETH, but there's going to be something at higher prices that's going
to convince people, oh, wow, it's actually back.
And oh, yeah, look, man, look at the chart.
That does look pretty good. know it's always like that so i think it's a ways away from that
it's you know people are still calling for 900 eth uh even even after this rally and that like
very very obvious like uh structural low confirmation i think you know when it crosses
actual low confirmation. I think when it crosses 2800, which is the level that kind of sent
us or the origin of the move that sent us to basically a downtrend to 1300 or 1400,
whatever the low was. Once you get above that, people are going to start really getting bullish
on ETH, but still a bit like one foot in, one foot out.
And the fact that you're already at 2,500,
and in my view, the timeline of this quote-unquote melt-up,
that's just a buzzword,
it can last all the way until September or October,
is that it's May the 10th.
is that it's May the 10th.
You have four months of a potential sustained bullish uptrend,
four or five months.
You could see ETH price probably at a new all-time high, right?
If this trend continues, which I would bet,
if I was a betting man,
I would bet that this trend is going to continue
over the next one to five months for ETH. And so, yeah, as you get above that, mainly the 4k high,
because people are going to be loading up shorts at the 4k high, thinking that it's not going to
get above it. But really, there's just a fundamental shift in the whole market to where we actually get an actual sustained bullish uptrend to where at the end of the day, ETH is a vehicle for big money to make more profit.
So who bought that low?
Somebody bought that low at $1,400, right?
If you just look at it holistically.
I've always said, it just takes one little fundamental change
or one little thing that they can market
to flip the sentiment on ETH, some market maker candles,
and all of a sudden ETH is, you know, great take again.
So, you know, watch when you claim that 2.8k level,
there's probably going to be something to shift the sentiment on ETH,
let alone like that 4k high, right?
If we do get this four-month sort of sustained
bullish uptrend, I think the sentiment
is going to flip like crazy.
I found
the narrative. It's Uncle Joe
buying ETH, man.
That's the narrative right there.
Did he buy the ETH?
I think he did.
He just doesn't want to tell anybody, man.
Uncle Joe, I sent you an invite to speak.
I think he missed all of the juice because he keeps dropping off.
No, he sent me a message saying that we're yapping too much,
and he feels intimidating.
Uncle Joe, brother, what's going on man like your your messages were
terrifying this morning we i looked at this i i looked at the group chat and you said well i i
don't i first of all i i was listening you guys and you know obviously nobody has a crystal ball
right and i respect people that have informed opinions but what i what i don't understand is
i keep hearing this like melt up thesis which i mean mean, if all you mean by melt-up is like a bull move,
I mean, I guess then we have melt-ups all the time.
I mean, I always understood melt-ups to be sort of a rare phenomenon,
but I guess you're using it more generally, which is fine
if you just mean that we're going to have a bull.
I guess the struggle I have here is that like,
I think it's like one of those, it's like that
famous meme where, you know, you're down 70% and you have an up 10%, right? Like, and you start
like, you know, yelling into the camera how great everything is. Like, we basically had a massive
oversold move across the board. You know, S&P can't even get over the 200-day moving average so far.
And while I remain bullish and like, you know, I don't really understand the narrative for like this expansionary massive move. You may be right, Donnie and Bobby, like we definitely get
that. I could also see a very, you know, a very clear case that you can look at, you know, based
on actual leading indicators that, you know, we bounce around, we go a little bit higher,
Bitcoin makes a marginal high here, and we chop around a lot this summer. There's reasons for that, right?
And we can go into that.
But to me, it's very difficult to see these massive oversold levels and then a really
epic move right across a lot of these alts and things.
But they're basically back to where they were in January.
And if you would go back and play these spaces, I mean, I was listening to some of just,
I do that occasionally. There's spaces from, you were hosting a lot, where people were like bullish
and saying the melt-up starting back in January and February. I'm not saying you said that,
Donnie, but there were people that were making that argument. So to me, you need the S&P to,
I think, break at least above the 200-day, which we still are, again, failed to do that today,
two in a row
uh now i'm not doing right like i'm bullish here i haven't sold anything i'm not shorting anything
but i just don't see why because we have from an oversold level with massive down only for like
three months we pop go back up and then now people are calling for a melt up i mean it's sentiment
my entire timeline is like incredibly bullish. Like they think like,
this is it.
You know,
we're going to,
we're every,
you know,
Ralph Paul's banana zone
has arrived.
Everything's going to,
going to explode higher.
it's not the banana zone.
It's the avocado zone.
Yeah.
Whatever it is,
whatever it is.
I mean,
it just seems like
there's absolute jubilation
and bears are decimated
and it's hilarious
because like,
you know,
like there are so these altercations still like 50% from the highs. So it's like, okay,
like, you know, maybe everybody wins this time and everybody, you know, gets this massive bull
move. But in my experience, markets don't tend to work that way. And by the way, I don't really
buy this whole like people were sidelines. I mean, there's data, American Association of
Individual Investors were retail was buying the dip hard in uh in march and april like really aggressively there's some hedge fund
crypto data that i have that retail was buying aggressively in march and april so i don't really
buy this whole like narrative that uh you know people are sidelined i mean i don't really see
that anywhere i don't know a single person i can name that like panic sold, you know, a Bitcoin, for example, in March or April.
So I guess, you know, all I'm saying is like my bias is bullish, right?
But like, I don't really buy the second part of the thesis that like melt up here.
Joe, I think if I had to ask you a question,
what do you think was like the reason or what was the narrative
that assisted the bearish move on the
S&P and Bitcoin during this last like couple of months to the downside? Was it kind of Trump
going, you know, gung ho with all the tariffs and wanting to put Main Street first? And, you know,
that's going to come with a lot of pain over the next three to six months before it gets better?
Do you think it would be that? So as I understand your question, what was the bearish narrative?
I mean, to me, I think the actual,
the reason for the bear move
was primarily due to over-positioning.
And people, risk was, I mean, look at spreads.
They were like at, you know, price to perfection.
You had a very, very aggressive allocation of risk assets.
So you had all of the, you know,
kindling there for a rapid bear move.
And then you had, of course, the tariffs,
which lit the fuse and everything sold off aggressively to the downside.
And then once you get to the downside and it's max fear
and you get a VIX at 50 and these things like an extreme defensive positioning,
you are primed for a snapback move.
Now, to my point, what you have to look at then is like,
is the snapback going to be something that has legs to it?
And that's where I have a question.
And if it does have legs to it, I'll just tell you, it's not from higher levels where people will capitulate.
It's very clear.
Like you got to get it like in the S&P and the Qs, you got to get above the 200-day average.
The fact that, you know, again, with like the right news across the board for the last two days, we can't close above the 200-day.
It should at least put some pause in your mind about we're all going to new all-time highs.
At least some from a probabilistic standpoint.
Yeah, yeah.
It takes time, though, you realize.
The stock market is a very big index, so you can't just look at it day by day.
But the progress that's been made is good.
And the main thing that I was trying to get to you across that point is that we had a move that was overdue to the downside, right?
You have your leading indicators.
There's other leading indicators.
We had the DXY rally in Q4.
That's kind of a delayed effect.
There was a bunch of things indicating that we are overdue for a correction.
But the narrative that assisted that move was the posturing on tariffs, how it's going to cause a very big trade regime shift globally and all this kind of stuff.
But now that that narrative is being switched or that Trump is backing off pretty significantly from that, and he still hasn't confirmed that yet.
We don't know that.
We don't know that.
Exactly, exactly. I wasn't done.
Exactly, exactly.
I wasn't done.
He still hasn't confirmed that yet,
but incrementally giving signal
that potentially they're moving away
from that playbook
and actually reducing the severity
by a big margin.
That if that does start to confirm,
you're going to have
an incremental confirmation
along with price action
that are going to lead to a melt-up.
Because also you have had DXY drop
below 100
and global liquidity by all measures,
even if you take a specialist like Michael Howell,
are actually at new all-time highs.
So you have this backdrop of all-time highs in global liquidity
and a return to quote-unquote risk on
because people went risk off
because of that narrative-assisted move to the downside.
So it's a pretty good backdrop for at least retesting the all-time high,
and we'll see how further developments are made from there.
But you can definitely melt up from this kind of backdrop, in my opinion.
Well, look, I've made it very clear.
I will lean almost entirely to your base case, not too far from here.
We closed red today on the Qs in NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 and SPY.
If you are successfully closing, like, you know, say a weekly close above the 200 day, like I totally agree with you.
There's like very high probability that probably heading new all time highs.
But I do I do have concern, right, that we've, you know, with very positive sentiment, very bullish catalysts we're failing at that that range so you know maybe we bust through it next week and then you can say sky's clear we're
heading straight up you have to front run yeah you have to front run that I don't I'm not trading it
I'm not trading it I I made the trade okay I did the trade I bought the bottom with with calls and
I you know I I have I publicly posted you know I did, I did, I had a three bagger, a six bagger and a nine bagger with,
with call options from the bottom. Right. I made the move right here.
I can be, I can wait. There's no reason why I have to front run it.
I can absolutely wait that move. Um, and most of my stuff is long only.
I don't even trade it. I just buy and hold. So I don't really care either way.
Joe, so what we have to do now is just spread a bunch of bullish propaganda.
Joe.
So what we have to do now is just spread a bunch of bullish propaganda.
So we have to become the inverse of Bitfinex and the Tether Truthers and just make up a bunch of like stuff that the Fed is about to do QE, that Powell said that he's about to inject trillions of dollars into the market we need a tradify version moment of the coin telegraph guy who said that blackrock
and it's uh ibit shares etf just went live if you remember that in aug in october of 2023 you
remember that day joe yes so we need the tradify version of that we need someone at the fed that says pal we will start qe uh the
moment the moment cpi is at one percent that would be something there there is just just for the
record there's like zero near zero chance qe starts this year like near zero nothing that can
ever be zero but if you had a gun to my head and said, what's the probability? I would say it's like easily less than two or 3%.
What about QE next year?
Maybe Q1, Q2?
Powell has reiterated this multiple times.
For them to engage in QE, rates have to be at zero.
For them to have to put rates at zero, you're going to have to see inflation crater and basically a recession.
crater and basically a recession.
So I don't know where this keeps coming from.
So I don't know where this keeps coming from.
Like for them to actually open up the doors for QE again,
they basically need to have like a severe economic recession where you have,
you know,
seven,
8% unemployment and we get,
we're at like 4% unemployment.
So I don't know why people and FinTwit think this,
but it's just bizarre to me.
It probably comes with UBI,
doesn't it,
Joe?
The next batch of quote unquote QE, QE5 or wherever we're at right now.
Probably UBI, man.
Probably.
Joe, have you heard anything about the Doge Simi checks?
Are those still going to be a thing?
Negative.
Negative.
That's just, yeah, not going to happen.
I mean, listen, like, nobody nobody would love i would love to see
zach was not talking and i was i was occupied but zach was talking about some blow off top
i would love to see that i just i mean that would be fantastic i would absolutely love bitcoin to go
you know above 150 000 i just i'm skeptical it's like you know as bitcoin gets bigger right it's
harder to move it up in those orders of magnitude.
It's very easy for something.
And you guys know this because you follow all the altcoin markets, right?
If something is a $10 million market cap,
it's extremely easy on a relative basis to go from $10 million to $50 million, right?
But if you're at a multi-trillion dollar market cap,
it's very hard for it to 2x very quickly.
That's a trillion dollars that has to come from somewhere. And you see the practical effect of like Michael
Saylor, who's bringing billions of dollars with the capital. And it's just, it's harder for it to
move. Okay, so, you know, I know why you guys, you know, you said it earlier, you play in the
all-competitive because you believe you can get better returns. Okay, maybe that's true. I don't
know. I have my doubts. I'd much rather play in TradFi
markets because I think I have a better
chance of success there. But what I will tell
you is this. The notion
that I think Bitcoin can
rapidly move up,
look at the options pricing on that.
The options, which is real-time pricing data,
is selling you some of these moves.
The options are currently pricing in a move above
$200k and $300k at less than 10%. is selling you some of these moves, like above 200. The options are currently pricing in a move above 200K and 300K
at less than 10%.
Donnie, we're still thinking 200 for next year, man.
If we get what I was talking about earlier
with kind of the cycle lasting until 2026,
again, one week, one month at a time,
data point by data point, then yeah,
I think you can see above 200K pretty easily, to be honest.
With the difference with the cycle compared to other cycles.
Why do you think, can you explain that to me?
Why do you think suddenly the market cap for the biggest,
one of the biggest assets on the planet
can just double in a short period of time?
You have new demand from the ETF. The ETF's entire inflows, right, have been, what, $150 billion? Am I right from that, Bobby? For now, right? But, you know, people are setting
up. So where is another trillion through the ETFs going to come through?
Where is that going to just come through in 12 months?
It's not just a trillion coming through the ETF.
It's kind of a sentiment.
People all longing the same direction because the broader picture looks like, well, is bullish for risk.
On top of that, you have new demand.
I don't doubt that.
Let's just stipulate that.
I'm asking, where is the trillion coming from?
Where is that?
Are you going to tell me?
Because an asset is 2 trillion doesn't mean you need a trillion of liquidity to make it go up one trillion.
No, you're correct.
Because there's a multiplier.
But if you look at like Checkmate's things, like to get another trillion effectively in
the market cap, you're going to need probably somewhere between five to 600 billion because
of the multiplier.
Because as it gets bigger, the multiplier effect decreases, right?
So like Checkmate has some of this good stuff and and in bull markets
right take as the price was higher it takes more and more capital to drive it higher right which
is basic common sense i think so like you're at the point where you know you're going to need
significant inflows you're going to need like probably like five or six more michael sailors
uh minimum and where are they coming from over the next 12 months?
Yeah, or the existing people that have been trading the coin to majority belong.
It's a cumulative effect.
It's just there's additional demand from the ETF as well, which we haven't had before.
So higher prices are a little bit more warranted than before.
I think it's just that simple.
Joe, what are your thoughts on ETH here, brother?
I mean, it's another one where, like, again, it's like,
I love that meme.
I'll see if I can find it.
You know the one I'm talking about, Wabi, where the guy's, like,
screaming at the screen after down only is like, yeah, I got a massive
10% move after, you know after dropping and getting crushed, right?
For like, you know, three months.
And ETH, it's an even worse story.
I mean, ETH Bitcoin just looks like a disaster.
And if you zoom out, right, on the ETH Bitcoin chart,
like this is probably one of the biggest, I think,
weekly candles on ETH Bitcoin that's been published in the last like several years, right?
But I mean, there are other ones that are
similar in size where it just went back to down only after that. So I'm a big believer. Just because
you get a green candle does not mean that you're going to get 10 more green candles coming out.
It could happen, but why isn't this just a counter trend move? Because the trend has clearly been down on
ETH Bitcoin for a long time. And you've had little pops here and there. And until you see significant
like two or three massive green candles in a row, to me, that's confirmation. And again,
I don't trade this stuff. I don't you know uh these these sort of like moves in the
altcoin market versus bitcoin i'm i trade other assets but to me like the chart looks terrible
for eph bitcoin this looks absolutely atrocious and you would you know from scanning fintwit or
crypto trader rather you would you would think it's like you know if bitcoin's gonna explode
and do a 5x from here which it could do do, right? But like, how do you know?
Yeah, the thing is, you don't know until you get your confirmation, like you're saying.
But refining entries and exits is like a different animal.
That's where you need like very high technical skill, right?
And yeah, I'll just argue ETH made a very clean accumulative low.
And you actually broke market structure to bullish on a lower time frame, right?
You can say that the overall trend on a weekly timeframe has been bearish,
but on the daily timeframe, you actually just flip bullish
for the first time in a very long time.
So if there is continuation from here,
if all of the backend context of how I say there's a good liquidity backdrop,
potentially we can get a risk on pivot.
If Trump really does back down from these tariffs,
then you're going to get a continuation of the trend.
And ETH is going to catch a major bid because it has a window of opportunity, which it didn't have.
ETH is back to where it was at the end of March.
Yeah, literally the end of March when people were already apoplectic about how bad ETH was.
So I just, I mean, let's see.
See if you get, again, I would agree with you, Donnie.
You get one week of confirmation where it continues to rally all through next week.
You get the S&Ps that are busting through the 200-day and heading to all-time highs.
I agree with you.
I don't think we're that far away.
It's not like one of those things where you've got to set on your hands for weeks.
It's like you need a few more points of confirmation before you guys are jubilant,
and that's the only reason.
You may totally be right, again, like that's just not how i i operate yeah but again it's just like if you
don't understand the technical setup then you're not going to see it until like you said there's
just more green candles but like this is a very significant uh structure that was formed on the
chart and you've actually broken the daily time frame market structure back to bullish which is
okay you haven't had broken the market structure because structure back to bullish, which is a really good sign.
What does that mean?
We're broken the market structure because we're trading.
I was just looking.
We're trading under tons of MAs still on ETH, Bitcoin, still trading under several of them.
I can lift this off, but you tell me what it means when you broke the market structure.
Yeah.
So basically from the 4K high all the way down to um what is this 2100 you had lower lows and lower highs the
entire time to break it down in its most simple form and uh your your last sort of lower high
let's say on the daily time frame was 2100 and now you've just put in your final low at 13,800
and you've put in a higher low at 15,200
and then you put in another higher low at 17,800
and you actually broke that prior lower high at 2,100
because now you're trading at 2,300
and you actually got a daily close above that.
So you've actually shifted market structure
on the daily timeframe to bullish,
not weekly yet, on the daily chart.
So daily candles only.
And you haven't had this since the 4K high.
It's only been lower lows and lower highs.
Yeah, I'm looking at the 200-week moving average, ETH Bitcoin.
Yeah, I don't look at any moving averages.
averages. I'm just saying that moving averages are effective in analyzing trends, right? We are
I'm just saying that moving averages are effective in analyzing trends, right?
trading currently under the 200 week, massively long moving average. We're trading 70% below the
200 week moving average on ETH Bitcoin. That is like, for people that claim that that's bullish,
like, oh, ETH is going to outperform now. Okay. It's a local shift in trend, right? By the time
you get your moving average confirmation
woohoo the prices are two three x right so this is a refined entry from the bottom okay let me
let me give you a counter example okay so i'm looking at the chart in february
eth okay to your point we we actually pumped 25 off the bottom we pumped 25 off the bottom underneath
bitcoin uh where's this it's february of 25 we went at 25 now in comparison stake okay just for
comparison's sake off the recent local lows we have pumped 28 so roughly a similar move to what
we did in february and after, it was down only, right?
Like from February of 25.
So you're comparing a market structure break.
Look at February of 25.
Yeah, and that was a bearish market structure setup.
Like you literally had a local distribution into a shoulder there,
and you just broke market structure again to bearish.
It's just like, unless you want me to give a full technical analysis
sort of tutorial, then it's not going to make sense to you.
Here's the thing. I talked to a lot of TA guys like all over the place and they all
disagree about everything. There will be people I could call in people that have 100,000 followers
that come in the room and they'll say, Donny, you're crazy. This is extremely bearish for
ETH Bitcoin.
And yeah, I've seen people with 500k followers just consistently get
it wrong yeah no no you're right so the thing is like you may be right like i have no doubt you
may be right okay um i don't pretend to know i'm just telling you like to me the chart looks awful
and i know that there's probably other ta gurus who tell you the same exact thing
yeah okay look at look at the chart I just shared in the nest.
This is the Bitcoin setup,
which is very similar to the ETH low, let's say.
It's not structurally the same
because there's plenty of different refined entries you can get.
But how do you think I predicted that bottom, right?
It's literally, that was the chart that I posted on top
and that's how it played out.
You got the lower low, you deviated those lows.
You almost came into that uh demand zone below
you had the market structure break back to bullish now you're at 104k
look that's how you if you draw enough lines on a chart you're gonna hit some of them correctly i
mean no these are these are consistent these are consistent things like on a regular basis i mean
so it's but but you you posted a dominance chart I tweeted out last night you posted it
I'm not trying to attack you I'm just saying you posted a dominance chart which had Bitcoin
dominance at 50 by now by mid-year um so I don't I mean this was this was earlier in yeah I I'll
find it if you want I'll put it in the nest you posted you posted a chart last last fall and you
had Bitcoin dominance coming to 50 by May and then you posted one today that says we're going to go to, I think,
I don't know, 50% by August.
So like, you know, if you post a lot of charts.
I'll put that in the nest.
So this is the thing.
If you don't understand technical analysis,
you're just like assuming things.
Because I draw a line on the chart, whatever.
This is like a high timeframe sort of idea on the Bitcoin chart.
I already shared it in the nest.
I was like, okay, I think Bitcoin dominance could go to 68% this cycle,
potentially.
There's a level on that chart.
It's called a point of interest.
So it's like an area you look at
for price to potentially go to.
So I was thinking, okay,
we could potentially keep rallying until 68%
before we get some sort of reversal.
The stuff that follows that,
many months down the line,
is just an idea, right?
I can't actually trade that until I get very close to that outcome and then get my confirmation and
enter, for example. So it was just an idea. It's not me predicting anything. Even with the ETH BTC
there, there's just a point of interest on the chart. But this is the problem because you just
posted a chart a moment ago and you just said, look, see how I predicted this move.
And when it comes to fruition, it's see how I predicted it.
When it doesn't come to fruition, it's, oh, well, it's just an idea.
Like it was just an idea I threw around on Twitter.
And you see this from a lot of people.
This isn't just you.
I'm not trying to attack you.
I'm just saying, you know, a lot of guys, I'm sure you know, they'll tweet out a bunch of stuff.
The ones that come true, they'll say, look how genius I was in calling this and the ones that don't
come true that well I was just an idea that's based on probabilities yeah but
that's literally what technical analysis is I understand it's all about
probabilities I think there's a big disconnect between like like no offense
but like your understanding of technicals and how to actually trade low
time frame high time frame whatever yeah I actually like you know what's going on i could have stand probability i could
pre-plan i could pre-plan 10 different setups and as it slowly gets to that day that time that hour
i'll pivot to so let me ask you let me ask you this okay and i was trying to ask you this yesterday
and again i'm not trying to attack you but like you think that Bitcoin dominance is going down from here.
So what probability do you assign to Bitcoin dominance being below 55%?
Let's say, you know, 60 days out.
It's not even like a percentage probability.
I'm just waiting for the chart to give me the confirmation.
And then I know, okay, wow for the chart to give me the confirmation and then i know okay okay when does it when does it get on to the old coin market okay
so as i hear you now you think the chart on the sb 500 has given you confirmation we're headed to
new all-time highs this year is that correct there's no confirmation on the chart it's just
an idea right but if you do pass 5800 if you do pass 5, you can start building a case, right?
If you have outside of the chart context, maybe Trump has actually put a base of 10%
tariffs.
The market has accepted that as bullish, let's say.
Then you've got more points of data to indicate, okay, we actually could trend to new all-time
highs on SPS.
Which is exactly what I said with moving.
Pre-planned.
I literally said that with moving averages.
But a moving average is late because you're having to claim a level that highs on SPX. Which is exactly what I said with moving. Pre-planned. I literally said that with moving averages. But a moving average is late
because you're having to claim a level
that's like way higher up.
Not at all.
Not at all.
You just said,
okay, I'll repeat it back.
You just said 5,800 is confirmation
that you're heading to new all-time highs.
I'm telling you actually a lower level
with a 200-day.
I think it's 57 something.
Bobby will know.
Probably have to stop the stat.
That's definitely not the level on the SPX. No, no, hang on. 200 day it's i think it's 57 something bobby will know probably have to stop the stat that's
definitely not the level on the spx it's no no hang on 57 84 you got above there 57 84 is is the
level for 200 so look look look look look the s&p 500 is going to go into price discovery
because it went down a lot so now it has to go up it went down almost 25 percent
in six weeks and when you have a drawdown like that the obvious move is to go super long
and wait for price discovery during trump's 2017 uh yes just for the record hang on just check 57 57 47 is is the level of the 200
which i said is for me that's confirmation donnie said that 5800 is confirmation which is actually
a higher and then he said it's too late to wait for the main moving averages so the moving average
is actually lower you would actually get that triggered faster. I'm talking about
entries and exits.
You have entries and exits and then you have
your trend or whatever where you get your confirmation.
But you enter way lower than that.
And again, this is just like
going over back and forth
trying to tell someone how to do technical analysis.
You can have your own system or whatever.
This is my system.
Expecting to be correct with absolutely every single move is ridiculous, right? You pre-plan
many different scenarios. As that date and time starts to come closer, you pivot to your, you
know, highest probability outcome at the time and you trade it. It's that simple.
Yeah. I mean, listen, you, I've had very very very good success for a better part of a decade
uh trading on a very different way um i think positioning matters way more than staring at
lines on a chart and you can see positioning is real positioning data so i mean listen everybody
if you make money it's fantastic it's all that matters um that's the whole name of the game so
good for you i mean you found a system that works for you
joe who do you think is the best basketball player of all time?
Michael Jordan or LeBron James?
Come on.
This is not even a question.
But Michael Jordan is hands down the best basketball player of all time.
Who do you think is the best bodybuilder of all time?
Doreen Yates or Arnold Schwarzenegger or Ronnie Coleman?
Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Have you seen Pumping Iron?
I mean, come on.
How could you?
By the way, are you
playing in my basketball game against
Punter Jeff in Vegas?
Are you coming? Are you going to be there?
I'm not going to Vegas.
don't really like
the casino
type
environment.
Casinos just smell like
bad decisions, cigarettes
and boonch.
So I'm just not gonna
ever go to anywhere
where there's a casino.
I'm just...
Nah. That's okay.
Especially with
crypto people.
I went to Bitcoin Miami in 2023 and, like, talking markets with people in real life.
It's just, it's a bit different, right?
It's just a bit, it's a bit odd.
Like, I remember going to Bitcoin Miami and, like, they had AVAax pinatas and cardano pinatas and it was like why focus so much
on your hatred for other assets instead of like just being grateful that you have the ability
to invest right it's like it's like it's like having a Dow Jones convention and just like having like the IWM ticker on a pinata and bashing it.
I don't know. Feels like a bunch of money wasted on revenue space, honestly.
So I don't really like conferences personally. I'll probably never go to a conference ever again.
conferences personally i'll probably never go to a conference ever again um i don't know i just
i feel very indifferent towards like irl events that's fine you know but but hanging out hanging
out you know like going to the arcade uh go-karting training weightlifting stuff like that
that's fine with me.
What about dating? Do you do dating?
Oh, man, Joe.
I refrain from any sort of DMs or any of that stuff on this platform.
I just, I'd rather not, man.
No, I don't mean on the internet.
I don't mean like virtual dating.
I'm just like in person,
like picking up a young ladder lady
and going for like something, you know?
I've never thought about it, Joe.
I've never thought about it.
Well, that's fine.
I mean, you you know you do you
it's okay i don't i'm not judging yeah i've never really thought about it i've just thought like
i've just thought like uh how can i accumulate more assets that's that's my that's my thing
right like how can i be uh michael saylor that's uh you should see this movie called magazine dreams
if you like uh movies like whiplash that's a good film yeah whiplash is great have you seen rounders
i haven't i have not oh my god what's wrong with this generation? But I saw Thunderbolts.
That was actually like a decent movie.
Yeah, that was a good movie.
I liked it.
It reminded me of like a Breakfast Club movie for superheroes.
Have you seen the Breakfast Club, by the way?
I have.
Yeah, it was kind of like they stole the plot from the Breakfast Club, only with superheroes.
i i thought it was like guardians of the galaxy but like on earth that's uh that was uh that that
I thought it was like Guardians of the Galaxy, but like on Earth.
that's what i was thinking when i was watching it i also like how they didn't try to like shove a
weird narrative did you see sinners sinners is a fantastic i'm not watching i'm not watching that
movie oh my god you gotta watch it it's it's too strong too Too strong? Too strong. What do you mean? Yeah. It's about the blues.
How can you not make sinners?
No, no.
It's too great.
I don't like watching anything that inspires horror or, like, drama or anything like that.
I just, I like feel-good stuff, man.
I've been through some nightmares, and I'd rather just not, like, see anything that invokes fear.
And I've seen some of, like, the imagery from that movie, but I know the plot.
It's from that blues singer that met the devil one day, and his family comes from, like, Christian backgrounds.
And they let the vampires in, even though they seemed like good people.
And the guy's father was telling them to not let people in just because they seemed nice.
And, yeah, the vampires went in the end.
And, like, it's just, it's a lot of witchcraft.
It's not really about vampires.
You know that, right?
There's some symbology, as they would say.
Yeah, it's like demonic, like demons and stuff. It's a joke, right?
I don't know, I'd rather, I'll tell you one movie that I am looking forward to.
It's Passion of the Christ Part 2.
That's one.
Is that really happening?
Is that a...
Yeah, yeah, it's gonna, I think it's going to be the first movie to explore after Christ died on the cross
and his journey in hell and all that stuff,
grabbing the keys from Hades and exploring some parts of Revelation.
Most people, when they read the Bible, don't really like dig that deep into it
um but that movie is going to be amazing in my opinion i think it comes out like early 2027
because they start production in q3 q4 of this year so if you factor in delays and all of that probably in two years two years around this time
um and it deals with what christ was doing during those three days and some parts of revelation as
far as what mel gibson is saying and i think it's going to be a box office hit um for those that
haven't seen passion of the Christ,
you should probably see it.
You should probably see it.
Probably one of the greatest movies of all time.
If not the greatest movie of all time.
You should watch Rounders.
You'd appreciate that movie.
What's it about?
So it's about a law student
who works really hard to grind it out.
There's a lot of trading references i think that
or applications rather um throughout the movie so basically it's a it's a law student who's grinding
it out playing uh poker at night and he's playing it very safe right he kind of like a good trader
he's he's not really swinging for the fences very much making very modest bets and uh the classic
setup line at the beginning of the movie
in the first 30 seconds is you know if you're too careful your whole life can be a fucking grind
and what he tries to do is swing for the fences he tries to hit the home run he tries to go play
at a high stakes game blows his whole bank load pretty much to demolish his account and then after
that he retreats from the life of gambling to just be a boring old law student.
Slowly and steadily, he gets drawn back in.
I won't spoil any more of it for you, but it's a really interesting sort of – it's got Ed Norton in it. It's got a lot of great actors in it.
Matt Damon's the lead.
And the big takeaway is, right, is like you can't deny who you are.
The whole premise is he tries to run away from what he is, which is, you know, this poker player, and he gets sucked back in.
So, you know, how it's relevant to markets, and I think it is relevant to market.
A lot of market participants, a lot of traders play cards, and they love the game, right?
It's like, I think Warren Buffett loves the game.
Like, he loves the exercise.
You clearly love the game of, you know, investing, trading, et cetera, and you can't really deny who you are in that respect.
You can't really deny who you are in that respect.
Oh, yeah.
I've seen that poster around.
Yeah, Ed Norton, Matt Damon.
Poster?
Where at?
Like blockbuster?
Where did you see a poster?
No, no, no.
Like banners, like for memes and stuff.
Oh, memes.
You saw the memes.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
There's this one profile I like to follow
called Based16z.
He has his
profile picture
as Matt Damon when he was
in Rounders.
That's how I recognized it.
Well, you should watch it.
You should watch it and report back.
I was trying to get Carter to watch it, the guy who was your predecessor,
and he never did, but I'll try with you.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, no problem, man.
Yeah, I love this thing.
I love these markets.
That's pretty much all I got today, guys.
I think we discussed a lot over the last two hours.
Donnie, Joe, is there anything else that you want to say, man?
The only thing I will say just to wrap up here is that I believe that we can have a very solid bullish year.
I definitely want to emphasize that.
I think the confusion for a lot of people is that they get these expectations so high
about, you know, like we're going to 50x to 60x.
I don't believe, first off, that like the bull market is a Cinderella.
It has to end in Q4.
Donnie and I may disagree on that, which is fine.
He may be right.
I'm just telling you, like, I think there's enough here in this marketplace that if the
economy can rebound, you can get a stronger growth impulse in the real economy. I don't see why Bitcoin can't head higher next year.
And I would hate for people that, you know, if you're in alts, right, you got to time it,
you got to like make sure you ride the waves and cycles and everything and not round trip stuff.
With Bitcoin, right, you can be very, very bullish on Bitcoin, you can accumulate steadily,
and you can ride that thing. And even if you get a bear market next year, it's going to be fine.
You'll be able to stack at higher levels.
I want to make sure you don't
just focus on the alt game.
Focus on steady, long
accumulation of Bitcoin and be tempered
in your expectations.
What are you up to this weekend, Joe?
I'm going to be hanging out
tonight with my wife and son and daughter.
I got a new baby. I'm going to be hanging out tonight with my wife and son and daughter. I got a new baby.
I'm going to be working on a paper
later tonight. I am going to be making
some corrections that I just got back from my book
with the agent.
I'm in your book, right?
Well, a character
loosely inspired by you.
When's the book come out?
That's TBD.
Believe me, nobody wants to drop this thing more than me,
but the traditional publishing process is so long-winded.
It just takes forever.
Okay. All right, man.
Well, Rags, is there anything that you want to say?
I saw you requested.
I was thoroughly enjoying the debate between the debacle between Donnie and Joe.
I didn't realize Donnie was so spicy.
That was the first time.
I really liked the debate.
I would like to see more of that.
Yeah, these spaces are known for that sometimes.
But Donnie, Joe, I want to thank you for coming on up here it was a fantastic discussion for the weekly wrap-up so i want to thank each and
every one of you here in the audience guys if this is your first time tuning in uh we are because
bitcoin we produce multiple live streams for you guys throughout the week we have two a day
our first show of the day we have two a day our first
show of the day is at 11 a.m est on our youtube channel called market check shows hosted by us
here at because bitcoin we usually don't have any guests on during that show usually the same set
usually the same set panels on uh on each day same thing with this show. Market Check is focused on all things TA, charts, scrap, stuff like that.
Then our second show is Market Talk, hosted by me, Wabi.
Showtime is usually between 4.20 to 4.40 p.m. EST.
Both shows usually go on for about an hour, hour and a half.
And it's basically an audio version of Market Check.
audio version of market check spaces are recorded as always so we have something uh for everyone
Spaces are recorded, as always.
guys especially if you're not in america and you're in a different part of the world
we have shows uh for pretty much every style whether you like listening to more of a podcast
style stuff or you're more of an individual that likes uh visual content on market check
we interact with the live audience all the time.
And then market talk,
we just rant and banter about all things markets,
crypto trad fi.
We talk narratives,
price action,
dubious speculation,
all that good stuff.
And yeah,
shout out to you guys that have been tuning in recently over the last few
days,
weeks or months,
or whether you've been tuning into these shows been tuning in recently over the last few days weeks or months or whether
you've been tuning into these shows uh on a daily basis uh over the last couple of years so shout
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We conduct multiple daily live streams for our private group as well.
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thank you all so much for your support for tuning in whether you like us or don't like us we
appreciate we appreciate uh uh you listening into the show as it does help out with the algorithm so
nonetheless guys i hope you all enjoy your weekend i'm gonna go ahead and train some upper body I'm gonna do standing
behind the neck axle bar presses and then some standing dumbbell presses and
then some incline axle bar bench presses and then some lateral raises front
raises lat pulldowns cable rows and I some, I got to do a little bit of arms too, so some skull crushers, some bicep curls with dumbbells on an incline, and that's pretty much it.
Maybe some upright rows as well.
That's pretty good for the traps.
And then I'm going to take Saturday and Sunday off to get ready for deadlifts on Monday.
So hope you all have a fantastic weekend.
Have a good rest of your Friday.
Thank you all so much for pulling up.
I'll see you all in the next one.
Take care, everyone.
God bless you all.
Bye-bye.
Bye-bye.
Bye-bye. Thank you.
