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March OPEX: Will Equities Keep Selling?
Recorded: March 21, 2025 Duration: 1:33:12Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent Market Check episode, the discussion highlighted key trends in the crypto market, including the potential for increased volatility post-March OPEX, a reset in altcoin sentiment, and the ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin by larger investors. As traders anticipate a market recovery, the focus remains on strategic positioning and the impact of USDT dominance on price movements.
Full Transcription
Good morning everybody and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by
B.B.
There is no second best daily YouTube live stream to talk about markets.
Happy Friday everybody.
We've come into the end of, maybe not the end of the work week, but certainly the end
of the week for stocks trading.
Welcome guys. We're going to have a the week for stocks trading.
Welcome guys, we're gonna have a great show for you today.
I'm Tommy, you guys also know me as Snorlax.
I'm joined by a full cast and crew today,
which again, we're gonna have a great show
for you all today.
We've got Tucker, Max, Prometheus, and of course, big Louie.
But yeah, happy March OPEX, happy Friday.
I'm gonna try not to sound redundant
in how much I talk about OPEX,
but unfortunately I do think it has a big role
in kind of what we're seeing as far as pricing goes.
But really, most things trading relatively
around the same prices that they were last week,
that they were on
Monday.
I think we are priming for a big move.
And I do think that once March OPEX has kind of passed us by, we'll be able to maybe see
a little bit more volatility in this market, which is ultimately why we're here.
Before we can talk about what direction we think that is, as well as, you know, kind
of what's happening in equities what's happening with vol markets
What's happening most importantly with the coins?
I'm gonna need you guys to hit the like button now usually we have a bit of a smaller crowd on Fridays
I can't blame you guys you're all getting ready for your weekends. Maybe travel into
Vacation places who knows?
So the people who are watching today,
I need you to pull your weight.
I need you to hit that like button for us.
Appease the algorithmic gods that work at YouTube,
even if they're just the automated ones.
But yeah, we always appreciate when you guys
hit the like button, of course.
We did show some soybeans yesterday.
I think that was like the first time that we'd shown soybeans in probably like three
or four weeks.
So we hope that you guys enjoyed that.
But regardless, guys, like I said, we got a full cast and crew today.
We're going to have a great show.
But let's talk about the markets, right?
I mentioned March OPEX
Obviously it has some importance to markets
It's really kind of been what has largely driven this downtrend that we've seen in equity markets for the past I mean, what is it four to six weeks at this point? A lot of that has to do with just kind of
Pressure that's coming into the market here as we are approaching the end of the
quarter. Much has been made about the extremely high skew of puts to calls, right? Naturally,
that is creating a bit of downside pressure on equity markets until this afternoon's close.
We probably have a little bit more freedom though to move. You know, once this week is
over, maybe we see crypto begin to
kind of take the onus and move this weekend. I guess that could be something to watch.
But as a whole, you do have a lot of downside pressure coming off the board here after this
OpEx. So I kind of think that it makes sense or at the very least, kind of the path of
least resistance here over the next few weeks at least is probably higher.
If we just range and chop, I guess we can kind of re-approach and kind of see what that
looks like for other risk assets and how those are trading.
But I think for me, I'm leaning that we're probably going to see higher prices here over
the next few weeks.
And what we're seeing intraday is just kind of a continuance of what I just mentioned,
right? That really high skew inputs that just kind of creating downside pressure and equities. Unfortunately,
Bitcoin and ETH seem to be very heavily correlated to US equities at this point in time. We'll
see if that decouples at all here over the next few weeks, but that's kind of what I'm
seeing right now, guys. Like I said, I don't want to sound too redundant in my
mentions of March OPEX, but I always try to rely on positioning.
I think that the positioning has played a huge role, admittedly, here over the last
few weeks.
What are we seeing, guys?
What are we thinking?
Do we think we can get any weekend volatility after this March OPEX is completed, or we
think that we're so
beholden to these US equity markets that maybe we don't move until Monday?
Good morning, guys. Good morning, good morning. Man, small crew today. I don't know if I've
ever seen, I mean, it's been probably over a year since I've seen such a small market
check crew. I'm not going to lie. And I can only interpret that as, as one possibility as I can only interpret it
one way, the bottom is in all right.
The bottom is in man.
People have given up.
It's crazy.
Like there's 116 people watching on YouTube right now.
That's that was like early 2023, early 2024 market
check numbers, man. It's completely dead out there. Like no one wants to talk about crypto.
No one wants to listen to anybody talk about crypto. And I feel like there's been kind
of a great cleansing that has occurred. Right? Yes. if you've been Bitcoin only, it hasn't been horrible.
So you've still gotten your teeth kicked in a little bit,
obviously like Bitcoin high, all time high
to this recent pullback minus 30%, that's pretty nasty,
right?
It's like three times what the stock market did.
You gotta have a stomach for it,
but most people in crypto have a decent bit of exposure
to altcoins, which have been down, you know,
ethos down from high to low about 60%, something like that.
So I think it's absolutely fair to say that we've had a complete sentiment reset.
We've had a complete market participant or market participation reset.
participant or market participation reset.
And I think that's actually, I mean,
I think you can measure that pretty damn clearly
by looking at like pump fund volume,
or should I say lack thereof volume, right?
The most retail grift signal of all time
is pump fund revenue and volume.
And it's basically fallen off a cliff
as he took this kind of final stab down.
So it's crazy, man.
The, uh, it's really crazy, man.
I saw a crazy stat this morning that pump fun listed over 8 million tokens.
I think in the last, dude, I would think it would be more than that.
Honestly.
I mean, I've seen some crazy figures thrown around.
I don't know which one is accurate,
but I heard it was like hundreds of thousands per day
at the peak were being launched.
But maybe that was like for like the best week they ever had
or something like that.
Hopefully they become ETH buyers.
I mean, we've had a complete like mid cycle reset here.
We've had a complete mid cycle reset.
I mean, ETH never even had like a bull market.
ETH never even had a bull market.
Seoul had like the beginning,
I mean Seoul had a bull market, right?
Like good gains off of the bear market low, but it really didn't go into price discovery.
Yeah, it kind of peaked its toe and, you know, it like snuck its foot in the door just a
little bit, but didn't really go.
I mean, we just didn't, we haven't seen any real like alt coin bull market at all.
And I know that people will point to, you know, certain alt coins or like genres of
alt coins that did well for like a small period of time in the cycle.
But looking at something like Bitcoin dominance or, you know, others dominance,
right? You didn't see Bitcoin dominance have any sustained move down all cycle.
So far, you haven't seen others dominance have any sustained move to the upside at all.
What you had scratch off season, you had gambler season.
You had people buying every week
the new hot generational wealth creator token, which everyone just got drained.
But I mean, here's the thing is like I
honestly think this like if you've been heavy at all coins and you've been playing all coins this cycle and if you still have
like bags left
You're doing better than most because I actually feel like most people
Just became part of the liquidity vacuum this cycle so far. They got taken advantage of, they got pump fund, they got TikTok shield, you know?
Like if you're still holding bags that, you know,
maybe are down, right?
Everything's in a correction right now.
I think you're gonna do just fine.
Like I think if you still have capital left,
you're gonna do fine.
But I think a lot of people got completely cleaned out,
right?
And they kinda, they're like, oh, I'm not trading on leverage.
Therefore, like I can't get liquidated.
No, you can get liquidated in a different way.
The over rotation liquidation is what it is.
You could rotate from bag to bag to bag to bag.
Everyone goes down minus 90%.
And then eventually you're kind of zeroed out.
Right.
And I think a lot of people just couldn't stop rotating
the cycle so far.
But yeah, I mean, we've had a complete cyclical reset.
We have, and honestly, I think it's a really healthy thing,
right?
For those hitchhikers to leave, for the gamblers to leave,
for people to be disincentivized
to be launching new tokens
because they're just not working anymore.
But yeah, anyways, I'll kind of leave it at that.
But I agree with Tommy when he says,
like, I think we can move up from here.
I do have a couple minor hedges in place here ultra locally,
but I'm expecting to get blown out of those and probably over
the next, you know, I would honestly say two months, see higher prices across the board.
So I think if you have capital left and you're bidding these levels, I think it's going to
age pretty well personally.
Yeah, just really don't want to see USDT dominance go a lot higher.
I think it looks like it's going to get stuffed there Tucker.
Needs to needs to.
Yeah, I think.
Yeah, maybe you could get this. But you are printing, you know,
lower lows and you know lower highs
in that structure right there.
Yeah.
Yeah, I could see like a little a little higher, right?
I actually have an interesting tether dominance chart that I've
been following for a while. Let's see it. My Tommy the
screen from you do it. Sorry, Tommy.
Again,
hang on here.
All right, we're up.
So, okay.
So we've just been sitting here for a while,
but I think the structure looks honestly constructive, right? Like I think it looks like it could be pretty bullish, which of course, like I think most
people here understand at this point, like tether dominance stuff.
If you're still here at this point, I would, I would wager a lot of money that you understand the
relationship between tether dominance and crypto asset prices, right?
But I think that this looks pretty good.
You have this kind of normie falling pattern here, right?
And it really came off the back of, you know, this was our pattern before. You could probably start it like this you
know we kind of had this like other little pattern going and it's just kind
of chewed through it a bit but I think this is the new pattern to watch right
here. So you got this falling pattern here mark the August capitulation low
mark the March top here and then kind of within it, you've got this range, right?
You've got range low, range high,
pretty clear mid-range.
So pretty clean range within this pattern here.
What of course we wanna avoid is like moving back up
to the range high.
We wanna avoid that at all costs.
I don't really think that we will. We're seeing
a nice rejection right where we need to. Okay. So what we're seeing here is within our falling
pattern and by the way, I think honestly my cycle target, I mean, I would say it's like,
it's probably like right in here.
I would think that this could be a good cycle target. Let me change this to demand.
Cause I still think we're early cycle guys, I do.
A lot of people are thinking the cycle's over,
did you take profits this cycle?
That's the hot question.
The way that it's being framed is like the cycles over. But yeah, looking at this right here, I like that we're holding this compression.
I do. And within this compression, we've also like I said, we've got this range, we've got
this golden pocket right here, we're rejecting from this kind of confluent level where
We've got this falling pattern. We've got this golden pocket, and I think we can move down from here now
Zooming in a bit to take a look at it
The red box is that golden pocket tighten that up a little bit. This is our golden pocket
So This is our golden pocket. So rejecting where we need to.
The thick black line is our kind of falling pattern, right?
Our high timeframe weekly falling pattern.
This thin black line is our mid range.
Now, I think that this looks potentially
constructive for lower.
I think you could see maybe another, you know,
little stab up or something like that.
But you've got this like inverse parabola
going on right here, inverse parabola going on right here,
which really needs to break.
You can maybe argue that it did break.
It's kind of subjective, right?
Doesn't really matter.
Point being is like you've curled up here,
huge move for the Bears, congratulations, That's great. I think what you really
want to focus on right here is seeing this thing obviously roll over, right? You
don't want to see us get above like this level. Like we could we could take
another you know little stab up or something like that. It wouldn't be the
worst thing in the world. It likes to do like, USDTD really it trades cleanly, right?
Like here is demand.
You can see how, you know, it holds demand, right?
This little node right here holds it.
And then it's kind of moving back up into supply, right?
It does the same thing right here, right?
Retested supply and then it went down.
It actually trades really, really, really cleanly.
So what I've been looking for,
I think Tucker mentioned this already,
is like I wanna see at worst like 5.4, 5.41.
And then from here, I really think
it's time to start rolling over.
I think it's time to start cooking to the downside a bit.
You can maybe look for something like this.
Let's see.
Like I wouldn't wanna see this give out
sooner rather than later.
It's not perfect, but you understand,
this is just kind of our general trend, right?
So I think ideally even next week,
maybe you see something like this,
start rolling over,
start working our way to the downside of it.
So you can move a little bit higher,
but yeah, I mean, you really don't wanna see,
you don't wanna see anything too crazy.
I mean, but here's the thing, in theory,
you could, like even if you went up here,
it still wouldn't be like,
I mean, it would be a deep retest of the lows, right?
Like you'd see Bitcoin back at like 78K
or something like that,
but it wouldn't, for me, like, ruin anything.
It would just be another scary shakeout, right?
And then you, you know, we could go over to Bitcoin. I was talking about this scenario with our
community where this would really freak out a lot of people. And I don't really have a
strong opinion on if it would happen or not. But obviously like we've been you know we
have a range right here. We've been suppressed by this four hour cloud, which is just like a
200 candle trend, SMA and EMA.
If tether dominance did move up, you know, like not quite to new highs,
but like a deep one, like a deep push up, you'd probably see Bitcoin put in
like a nasty three drive into the low low which I think this would be like a generational show like anything down like in here is just like
Absolutely shove turn your brain off kind of just spec it, you know, just take it take it and know that it has to hold and
You know, hopefully it works out because like you also have the most
The most important technical level
on the chart right around here,
which is your previous all time high back from March.
Like a three drive into the lows here
would be an epic shove, honestly.
I don't have a firm opinion on if that happens.
I actually think we could just kind of
churn our way up from here.
We are printing something constructive, right? There's something going
on here which I like. But just kind of talking through a few scenarios, right? Like we're in a
range. I think it makes sense to play this like a range. But you need to get above this, you know,
kind of four hour trend and mid-range and March open right here. So I think if you can do that
sometime next week, pricey tether dominance drop like a rock. here. So I think if you can do that sometime next week
I see tether dominance drop like a rock and honestly I think you could even see Bitcoin back in like the mid 90s pretty pretty quickly
So that's kind of how I'm viewing it personally
I think it makes a lot more sense to be looking for longs down here despite this local BS that's going on
So yeah kind of my thoughts.
Like just don't really wanna see,
just don't wanna see tether dominance move up too much more.
But I think this should cap it truthfully.
I really, I think this should cap it.
We should start working our way down.
I don't know how you guys feel about it,
but those are my general thoughts.
Yeah, I'm in a pretty similar camp.
I mean, from a bullish, like if you're bullish
and you wanna see long-term bullish price action,
you really wanna see us take that five one level
on USDT dominance, like for us to fall down below that
and then we kind of break structure
and then you're kind of eyeing some longer term
bearish price action from USDT dominance. But overall, I mean, longer term, um, bears price action from
USDT dominance, but overall, I mean, we've talked about it a lot and not
only on market check over the past week, but also in the, because Bitcoin
premium, uh, discord calls, but we have been calling for some form of, even
if it's only complacency shoulder from here, um, some form of move to the
upside and relief, um, from what we've been seeing over
this previous two to three weeks. But I'm in a very, very similar camp. I think USDT,
you do you want to see it us lose that five one level. And then you're really kind of
like risk on, you know, like, it's it's time to go. Yeah, it's like this this spot right here, man. This is the
this is the waterfall spot right here. If we can drop down, like we got a little bit of work to do.
But if we can hold right around here, next week, kind of chop our way down. We should see this
thing drop like a rock, in my opinion, like you start bleeding back into that low. Yeah.
thing drop like a rock in my opinion. Like you start bleeding back into that low.
Yeah. Yeah. Like that,
that higher timeframe wedge look you have max for that. Like I trade wedges a lot.
Um, and this to me is screaming like the fake breakout of the wedge before like
the final drop to the lows.
I usually get one, two,
three taps that look like they're going to the lows. I usually get one, two, three taps that look
like they're going to break break out from that like the fall in consolidation. And like
the one year at now looks like this has like one more big drop probably to that green zone.
And that's our negative our negative 618 there. Yeah. Yeah, so this is like just kind of just going off a feel here, right?
Just like from trading wedges a lot
This looks like to me that like this is getting people hopes up that it's gonna break out
But likely has one more larger drop before putting in, you know a bottom in my opinion
Just looking at it plainly like this
That's just kind of the feel I get
When you drawly like this. That's just kind of the feel I get when you draw it like this.
But that swing fail needs to remain the swing fail.
Like that stab above that little red pocket you have there needs to remain the high, in my opinion, and we're okay.
in my opinion, and we're okay.
I can't hear what you're thinking.
No, I mean, I think it's a natural spot
for us to be bouncing.
I think a bunch of all USD pairs are confluent with that.
A man of few words, but I like it. Yeah, I mean as far as like lower timeframe goes, I could maybe see like one more raid
of kind of like the longs that came in earlier this week, but I think in general, we're
probably bouncing into next week into like 24, 2500 on ETH, hopefully.
And then I'm not quite sure where that will take Bitcoin,
but I was looking at like low 90s,
maybe like 92K on Bitcoin.
Hopefully next week, like I said.
They usually pump price into the end of every month.
I don't know if you guys have picked up on that tendency,
but we have
been consistently pumping into in like the final week and a half of every month, most
months for like the last three or four.
I haven't picked up on that. Actually. That's interesting. I'll take it. I'll take it. I think it's like a similar effect of like
window dressing that we see in equities. Let's check on our Bitcoin cycles chart here. I
want to take a look at this. It's been a while since I've looked at this. Here it is. Slightly lagging, but not too bad.
Slightly behind the previous two cycles.
But it's like at the same time we were also slightly ahead
over here in March and now we're kind of slightly behind
here this March.
So mean reversion can happen quick
from a time perspective as well.
All right. I'll pass it. Someone else talk. I keep talking and then no one's,
no one's saying anything. So I'm going to just fall silent.
I'm going to be done. Someone else.
I got something I'm looking at. I could pull up.
What you got, Louis.
So I want to know your guys thoughts on this as well,
but something I've been tracking over the last month, you know, as we know,
Bitcoin's been kind of following MicroStrategy. Like if you guys remember when Bitcoin was
still in that eight month range, and MicroStrategy was like just absolutely ripping, like here.
We had a lot of discussions about that, Louis. I remember back then we were all so frustrated.
We're like, dude, how is micro strategy ripping and the underlying commodity that basically
determines the price of micro strategy not moving yet? Yeah. That's crazy. Yeah. So it's something
I've been coming back to more recently to try to get some signal because obviously the price action
locally has been very noisy. It's very choppy, it's very pump, dump, pump, dump. So in times
like these, I like to look at other signals, at stuff that could help me gain signal and kind of clarity,
other than just looking at plain price action. And what I've been noticing with MicroStrategy is,
we've kind of had a very similar sequence of moves here.
So, MicroStrategy had a nice blow off local top here
back in November, and it's just been slowly consolidating and bleeding lower
for the last couple of months.
Very similar to Bitcoin.
Very similar to Bitcoin.
But what I'm noticing is
MicroStrategy did lose its major local structure.
It had a market structure break here, right?
This was a big gap down
and this was a major market structure break, right?
Similar to Bitcoin.
So we had that on micro strategy.
We had a big gap up and attempt,
like this was a single day move
to try to get back inside your structure, right?
And we kind of had the same thing on Bitcoin, right?
Lost structure, had a big one day move pretty much.
That was that Sunday crypto reserve pump and got harshly rejected, right?
Micro-strivers got harshly rejected.
Bitcoin got harshly rejected and both revisited the same low, right?
Not Bitcoin, I guess. And both revisited the same low, right?
Not Bitcoin, I guess, but, you know, harsh rejection, right?
Again, MicroStrategy fails to break lower.
Again, pushes back, trying to get back inside its structure.
Fails, right? Again, for a second time.
Comes back down, but refuses to break down here here and this is starting to get very you know
interesting to me how this is like our third time that micro strategy has been hard partially rejected
at the underside test of loss structure came back to you know these lows and refused to break lower
right and we kind of saw the same thing on Bitcoin. Rejected on the first
attempt, came close to the low. You can even consider this being a low if you don't count the
Wix. And bounce again into the underside. And rejected hard once again, similar to MicroStrategy.
But what we've been seeing out of MicroStrategy over the last couple of weeks or the last week or
two is once again, on the third attempt to break lower,
micro strategy has been floating back to the upside and now has a couple days closed back
inside its law structure. And I think that's a great sign. We closed the week up here and
today is the last day of the week. You know, I pretty much consider this a reclaim of law structure, right?
On a third attempt.
Um, and I see no reason why Bitcoin can't follow that, right?
Why Bitcoin can't follow, you know, a similar move that we're seeing out of
micro strategy after seeing similar rejections and similar refusals to
break down off of this level.
So micro strategies up here, you know,
looking like it's reclaiming structure. That's great. What gives us confirmation is pretty much
starting to break this local, you know, bull flag or downtrend, whatever you want to call it.
You know, we start to see something out of this, out of micro strategy. I think that's confirmation
that Bitcoin will likely continue to follow micro strategy,
be able to reclaim its law structure, and then start to break back inside the range
back to the upside. Because if micro strategy can do it, I see no reason why Bitcoin can't.
So I'm curious as to far as like what your thoughts were on this. So yeah.
I think that makes a lot of sense, man.
I mean, it's what we've been seeing all cycle
is MSTR has been leading Bitcoin by up to a few weeks,
but usually it's a little bit more reflexive
and quick than that.
But yeah, I mean, micro strategy looks a little bit better
than Bitcoin here, No question about it.
And maybe that has to do with like the I don't know.
I mean, look, Bitcoin's chart had that Sunday Trump pump when he announced the digital asset reserve.
MSTR obviously wasn't trading on the weekend.
So maybe, you know, if it had happened on Monday, things could look differently.
But I mean, the like the logic behind what you're showing makes perfect
sense, just because it's, it's, and like, if you scroll back on
your chart a little bit for both, if you look at that August
range, or like, yeah, from August low through when it broke
out, you can see I remember sitting here on market check
with all you guys looking at that being like, this is complete bullshit that Bitcoin is not breaking
out and MSTR is ripping like Bitcoin was lagging micro strategy by like two or
three weeks.
And then of course it finally caught up.
Um, but yeah, I mean, look at that.
Look at that.
It was, yeah.
When, when we actually really started pushing
on MicroStrategy, we were just about, you know,
a couple of weeks behind.
Yeah.
So, and again, another thing to note is that
this looks like it's front running
its major structure here, right?
As I guarantee you, a lot of people are waiting for this to be tested on micro strategy, but
we're kind of refusing to break down to here, you know, as of yet, right?
Three attempts, at least on the lower timeframes.
And it's kind of the same look for Bitcoin, right?
A lot of people calling for this lower structure on Bitcoin to be tagged, right? But we're seeing that MicroStrategy front ran it, right? And historically, Bitcoin
is known to front ran these major structures as well. So that's another kind of similarity
I'm seeing. And these charts are very similar. And we've seen Bitcoin follow in the past.
So I think it's very, I think it's a great
signal if you know MicroStrategy can close up here closing the week. So I have a close eye on
crypto stocks today to kind of see where they close. But again, you know, if we close the weekly
up here on MicroStrategy, I see no reason why this isn't reclaimed structure. We failed multiple
times but continued to push higher.
We're back inside now and all we need is the break. All we need is the break and this is just one
massive bull flag before continuation. I think we have more to go on micro strategy. I think we have
a lot more to go. So this could just be one consolidation before another like higher.
And I believe the same for Bitcoin as well and I believe the same for Bitcoin as well.
Right.
I believe the same for Bitcoin as well.
So I just thought that was interesting.
Uh, I mean, nothing's like super actionable, but I think it will give,
you know, signal and before shattering what we could see out of Bitcoin.
Um, if we continue to see.
Micro strategy pushing up,
dude, everyone keeps commenting on my hair. I think it's the light behind me. the I'm losing some of it from all this ETH beta, but as you guys think it is.
It's the crypto tax.
It is a crypto tax, man.
It's definitely seen thicker days.
Let's put it that way.
But, but yeah, Louis, how do you think like coin looks?
I think you posted something in our discord yesterday
about it.
Yeah. So I mean, this is super low timeframe.
Um, so let me start higher timeframe first, and then we'll, uh, we'll drop down.
Um, so corn definitely has some work to do, right?
Even if you look at it on the weekly.
I really liked coin up here. All right. I thought it looked really good when we were up in here,
up in this area, right? Because we pretty much reclaimed a big, big horizontal level.
We broke this falling downtrend. We got above it. We came back. We were flipping this into support.
This looked like it was ready to go.
And I was starting to buy coin in here.
But obviously, this was a failure.
This failed, got back inside.
So higher time frame doesn't look super great.
But I'm seeing some things in the lower time
frames that I like. So let's drop it down. Great. But I'm seeing some things in the lower timeframes
that I like.
So let's drop it down.
Let's go to the daily.
So this was a major gap fill that I
was looking for once we started breaking lower, which
was this right here.
And gaps do tend to act as support and resistance in price action and charting.
So we are below it right now. We are below it. But similar to micro strategy,
we still are at a key level where we came back to this low. And when you drop it down, you can see
And when you drop it down, you can see that we've had multiple times and chances for this thing to break lower.
Right. I mean, this is lower time frame doesn't hold as much weight. Right. But it's a signal or it's kind of giving me, you know, some some good signal here where we had came down once bounced, right, came back down twice, you
know, looked like it was definitely going to roll over here, bounced. And even a third
time came back down and you know, price is refusing to break lower. And I'm seeing this
across the board on crypto related stocks. Just refusing to break lower when they look
like they should be right. Like Coinbase looks like it should have been down here by now, the way it's been dropping, right? At the speed it's been dropping,
and the levels were losing. But, you know, until this breaks lower, I'm looking for a reversal
back to the upside, right? I think bears had enough chances to push this lower. And really,
what gives you confirmation is if you break this local neckline here,
you start pushing up here and you start breaking
this little structure, I think we
can see a nice pop back to the upside at a minimum.
And what's here, this white box, is your not order block,
it's your gap.
And so if we do see a big pop, we got a nice mini gap here,
that's a local target, IVI.
But what's important is if we do see a pop like this,
if we could hold on to the gains,
sure we could see pullback,
but if we hold on to the gains and recapture this gap,
I think it's a great, great spot
where we could start to see price pivot,
start recapturing key areas, and start heading back to the upside.
So again, has a lot of work to do, but
we start stair stepping this gap back to the upside.
And we start flipping these major resistances above us, you know,
start, start getting back above this massive falling
downtrend, push off that, get back above the massive horizontal, there is not much stopping
this stock from heading back into price discovery. This is a stock that hasn't even gotten back to its IPO price of 2021. Right. And many remember when Coinbase IPO back here,
this is what pretty much marked the first top on Bitcoin was this IPO. So
seeing that coin is still trading, you know, in kind of this still trying to climb out of its bear market territory, still well below its 2021 bull market, in my opinion, we'd be trading above
this level and be trading up into this area.
So if Coinbase was up here and we were seeing the action we were seeing out of all coins,
I would say, you know what?
That probably was the bull run.
Alt has topped, ETH has topped, and we're likely gonna head into at least a shorter term,
you know, bear market or reaccumulation.
But the fact that I'm looking at Coinbase
and it still hasn't even climbed, you know,
back to a dull IPO price,
tells me that I think we have a lot more room to run.
And I would like to start seeing Coinbase start to continue this
climb, start recapturing these levels, flipping these resistances into support. And again,
once you start flipping 275, there's not much stopping you from starting a price discovery run
for Coinbase. So I'm a bull on coin, right? I think we're in the general area. If it's not here,
you know, we'll probably see, you know, a big bounce if you come into this level. So whether
it's here or here, I think we're in the general area where we should be looking for a low on coin
and start to look for reversal, right? And I think if it does start to climb back up,
I think that's a great sign. Do you see any like with micro strategy, you identified like a bit of a lead
time.
Is there any signal that you found with coin or any other crypto related stocks
I had or lag or is it really just kind of MSTR?
I haven't really looked into it for this stock, but let's see. I mean,
where did this start to drop this started to drop in December
let's just pull up maybe we can pull up ETH down below because I think I've heard Wabi say that
ETH kind of follows Coinbase and that's not something I back tested or looked into
so let's look at it.
I'm not going to go into changing the candles. It's going to take too long, but
I mean, yeah.
I mean, Coinbase kind of front ran ETH top by, so there's no Coinbase
topped on December 6th, ETH put its top on December 16th.
And they both have been dropping in similar fashion.
Yeah.
The only difference is ETH dropped a little lower, right?
Coinbase still kind of at this demand, right?
And I would, you know, if I had to compare,
I'd compare that to this demand here on ETH. ETH dropped below it, but Coinbase is kind of holding still,
at least for now, holding at this kind of demand level. So we start to see a push at
a Coinbase back to the upside. I would expect ETH to start to climb and pivot and turn back to the upside.
So yeah, there is definitely some signal here.
Coin really reminds me a lot of Solana, structurally.
This?
Yeah.
Yeah, I agree.
I think too, like from a long term outlook, you're at a really, really, really strong place to at least take some exposure to the long side in coin when you can have a super
tight validation.
Like if we get underneath that spot that Luia's marked out right there, that horizontal line,
I think at like 180-ish.
Yeah, 175.
175.
Yeah.
No, I mean, clear, tight and validation with a lot of potential upside to keep a spot on
the chart.
And Coin is like, in my opinion, is the barometer for retail sentiment and retail behavior.
If you see coin doing well, it is directly associated with how retail is essentially
behaving and how they're doing in the market.
If you see coin underperforming, it's, Iing, we're not in an alt season, right? You're
not probably seeing on chain do very well. It's very confluent with how the alt market
is behaving. I've talked about this time and time again, but coin to me is literally the
Microsoft of crypto. You're going to see this chart at some point in the future be at $2,000 and
do a stock split.
I don't think that's very far-fetched at all.
They've been the custodian and they are the custodian for the biggest players in the world
when it comes to holding their crypto.
They are clearly given the upper hand by regulatory bodies.
The United States government is probably in cahoots with Coin and Coin is in cahoots with them
to where they provide information to the government whenever the government comes a knock in.
It kind of allows them to position for the most adoption in regards to a centralized
exchange in the United States.
And it's been very, very apparent.
So I think coin here is probably a no brainer.
You have very tight invalidation with a lot of potential upside.
You're coming into really, really strong support, really tight and validation.
And it's very, you know, at minimum, it's, you know, an easy, easy little punt, um, to
the long side in my opinion. So
yeah, I like those thoughts a lot guys. I mean,
the question for me has always been like,
why hold Coinbase when you could hold MSTR, right?
MSTR is just consistently outperform Coinbase.
I mean, for as long as I can remember, right?
You get direct exposure to the underlying commodity
or assets that you're trading, where with Coin,
they're really just like,
they're not, they don't have a treasury.
I mean, I'm sure they own some crypto.
They do own some crypto, but it's not like MSTR, right?
I'd rather just buy like, if you charted Coinbase against Bitcoin, like, how does
that chart look, you know, like, how does that pair look?
I don't even know if I've ever charted it, but I'm pretty sure Bitcoin
is kicking its ass, honestly.
And I'm really kind of curious to see what happens. Like when we
get an alt season, how the MSTR coin chart behaves.
Good. Sorry to cut you off. That's what I mean, where I'm
like, you chart MSTR
against Bitcoin. You've got something. You chart Coinbase against Bitcoin. It's like,
why do I want to invest on the fee skimming structure around brokering the sale? Okay,
dude, what is this guy doing? This guy is just spamming the comments. Oh my goodness.
Get him out of here. Oh my goodness.
Get them out of here. Oh my goodness.
So how I look at it is I think micro strategy is your, you know, your,
your stock to gauge Bitcoin.
I think Coinbase is more of a stock to gauge Ethan all coins and the sentiment
there, right? Because even all coins have performed way worse than Bitcoin has, right? But I think we're coming to a point where if this is a mid cycle correction
for Bitcoin and ETH and ALTS have taken, you know, they're beating and are at or near their,
where they're going to bottom, coming out of this, I think ETH and ALTS are going to take
the dominance from Bitcoin, right? That's kind of historically when you see it. You kind of see it when Bitcoin comes out of its first, you know,
mid-cycle, major mid-cycle correction. So that's kind of what I'm using coin for. That's why I'm using both, right?
I'm using MicroStrategy to kind of track and engage what Bitcoin is going to do. And I think using coin is more or less a tool to kind of gauge all coins and what they're going to do.
So that's kind of how I'm looking at it.
And that's kind of why I have exposure to both.
I don't have exposure to MicroStrategy, I'm sorry.
But yeah, that's kind of how I'm looking at it.
And if that does happen and ETH and ALTS start to take dominance
Once we do rally from these levels. I think we start to see coin
outperform micro strategy a little bit as well
But I mean this doesn't look great
But you know, we're coming in our MSTR over coin, Louie
but you know we're coming in to the close.
Shut up. Start MSTR over coin, Louis.
Yeah, I'm really curious to see how that pair behaves, especially in an alt season,
because from what we've seen for this entire cycle has been a strong institutional bid,
and because of that, Bitcoin has been able to outperform all altcoins greatly. And so just like what we saw with, you know,
ETH BTC, for instance, when you get alt season,
you know, some of these, you know, for instance,
ETH BTC, you know, when you get alt season,
that, I mean, that chart mean reverts extremely quickly.
And so this chart has been just a meat grinder, the upside, and it's like, okay, you know, if we do get an alt season, and you start to see behavior like we had last cycle where people flood into, you know, your aunts and your uncles, etc. People that aren't really crypto savvy, and aren't really an ecosystem. All the time start to flood into coin. Do you see a chart like this just drop like a rock and then coin have its kind
of quote unquote catch up trade?
You know, it's, it's, it's just interesting and the behavior of the space right now
and you see Bitcoin beta and dominate across the sector.
You just haven't seen anything that's altcoin related,
really have the potential to have a long sustained leg up.
And it's been very sporadic,
and it's been, the altcoin pumps have been very short.
You've had, end of 23, you've had the beginning of 24,
end of 24, and these 23 you've had the beginning of 24 and a
24 and these times usually last often no more than, you know, 45 to 60 days at most.
So kind of curious to how these charts, you know, these Bitcoin derivative charts are
going to behave and these pairs are going to behave.
That's a big old bear there, Louis.
Yeah. It looks like it's probably getting close to a top, right? Weekly bear.
I mean, I think it's fine. Cause again, that would just more or less probably represent
ETH and all coins taking dominance from Bitcoin, right?
And when that happens, Bitcoin still goes up and Bitcoin can still be put others up there too.
Like like below here.
Yeah, put others below either way.
Actually doesn't matter.
Excluding top 10?
Yeah.
Ah, shit.
Whoopsies, hold on.
Now just hit plus, hit the add.
I gotta do new paint, right?
Yeah, yeah.
All right, yeah, I'll get rid of that, okay.
Yes, they're kind of doing the opposite.
Kind of doing the opposite. So it's looking like
kind of what I've been saying. This is kind of the visualization of that, right?
Bitcoin dominance, right? Or micro strategy dominance over coin coming into
or micro strategy dominance over coin coming into
You know the upper end extreme
while all coins or
Coin stock coming into the lower end right? We're good. Look at when others
pumped in November, obviously we had Trump win whatever but
You know, it was after micro strategy over coin went up a lot, kind of blew off and then others ripped.
Yeah.
So it looks like others really started ripping once this top.
Yes.
So like you didn't really get the meat of the move until after this top, you
start coming down trading sideways.
That's when you got the big move out of others.
So kind of, kind of makes sense now.
Kind of makes sense now. Kind of makes sense.
And it looks like it's trying to top right now.
Yeah.
Yeah.
That's kind of how I'm looking at this.
You know, Bitcoin dominance as well.
I think we're getting close to a top.
I think so too. And I mean, if you guys just saw, I think it was Fed.
They have a model that shows recessionary expectations
and the latest print on it just came out
and it fell and plummeted like a rock.
So recessionary expectations are coming down significantly. And a lot of the big data points too
are looking, you know, consistently strong or decent at
least. And I just think this big move that we had to the
downside was a over positioning initially for, you know,
an almost perfect growth expectations
in the broader markets to then an over positioning
to the downside and expectation of recessionary fears
and, you know, slow down in growth.
And so I really think you get a cool down
in the broader markets.
And we probably see what we typically see,
especially in the SPX,
where we just get it kind of slow grind up
throughout the year and a crush in volatility.
And then you're gonna have pockets within crypto
that are probably going to do very, very, very well.
But I'm very much leaning into the camp that the lows are in and the
movement, which we just saw was, you know, was the move to the downside
and any further, you know, price action from, you know, our, our
perspective is better to the upside.
Yeah.
I mean, this move and I was saying this back in February, right? When we got this massive wick to the upside on Bitcoin dominance, uh, when
Ethan alts like really capitulated hard.
Uh, this is in my mind, the top until proven otherwise, right? Coin dominance when Ethan also like really capitulated hard
This is in my mind the top until proven otherwise, right? This is a major major
High wave rejection right blow off top
While also running a key high right so you have the key high run you have the major rejection
And you're kind of just floating around here.
And what I'm really waiting for as far as confirmation is getting back below this high, right? If price
gets price acceptance back below this high after running it, you know, this likely is just a massive deviation.
This was your blow off top you get back inside.
And if you do, I think we're coming below 60% at a minimum, right?
And you also have kind of these bear divs forming, right?
Last time we kind of formed a similar bear div
on Bitcoin dominance, we saw a big drop, right?
And we're seeing something again play out here.
So everything I'm looking at right now,
as long as this wick is not
like broken through, uh, you know, it could do anything it wants in here,
right? But as long as it doesn't break this high, this wick high and gets,
you know, likely we're coming back below and we're going to start a down trend.
However that looks, um, at least locally, at least locally,
it really seems like that was a blow off, man.
If that wasn't a blow off, I don't really know what is,
but at the same time, like if you look at this chart
on like, let's just say the monthly even,
ultra high timeframe,
like that thing is in an uptrend, you know? and it's hard to want to look at that and think it's about to roll over because it looks, I mean it pays to assume that that should be a blow off.
But I also think it pays to be a little patient.
Like you're gonna know when this thing is down trending.
There's gonna be no question about,
oh, it's in a downtrend or an uptrend.
Where right now we're just kind of ranging churning
at the highs a little bit.
And you're gonna get like a monthly meat stick to the downside and we're gonna know that that is truly the beginning
And I also see similarities to this
Here and obviously a lot smaller of a structure this took out of our longer period of time
But like again like Bitcoin dominance makes a high 2019 looks like it's topped boom big big
move back to the upside ran this high got back inside and then your downtrend
starts so I'm seeing some similarities to this here right made a high looked
like it was rolling over.
Boom, big move back to the upside, ran the high,
but didn't close any candle bodies above it on the monthly.
And that's kind of why I'm looking for a top around here.
But again, yeah, you're right.
This is a very strong trend.
So it's been hard to call a top on this
and a bottom on EAPTC. So it's kind of just call a top on this and a bottom on EEPTC.
So it's kind of just wait and see.
Again, we can still see this pop.
This can still make another move.
But again, they can mess around in this WIC all they want.
But as long as this WIC is respected, this is the high and it's proven otherwise, in
my opinion.
So kind of how I'm looking at it.
Yeah. Did we lose Tommy?
I think we lost Tommy.
Yeah, he had to go.
Gotta go get an X-ray.
Yeah.
Yeah. I mean look, we're
It's a Friday. We're probably not gonna see
We're probably not gonna see too much today. I'm really just kind of focused on this local structure that you have drawn here, Louie.
I think it's possible, you know, but here's the thing we have seen so many CME gaps
I think it's possible, but here's the thing.
We have seen so many CME gaps recently,
way more than we used to.
Whoever the new puppet master of this market
love to cause us some stress on the weekends,
for better or for worse.
So I don't know.
I guess I could see them try to take a little dive down here,
maybe even just to like 82, which
wouldn't be even that crazy.
But yeah, I mean, I think holding this structure here.
All right, let's do a little experiment.
Can you just stay on the three hour?
Would you do me a favor?
And would you go back to the FTX capitulation low?
Because I want to take a look at it.
It did something kind of similar
With just how it bottomed. Yeah, sorry. It's gonna we're gonna get a little workout here for your hands
Yeah, zoom in on that
See how we like came back swept the low after a horrible drop
See that initial sweep?
See that initial sweep
That one, yeah.
Like it's possible we just did that and we're kind of in like the chopping region.
Yeah, this.
Yeah, like something around somewhere in there, right?
Where you take out the low, everybody kind of thinks you're gonna keep nuking, you don't
keep nuking. You don't keep nuking.
It's possible, right? It's possible that that low is in.
It's just now we're in that time-based capitulation
component where we need to let this thing
just kind of churn its way back up,
chew through a little bit of supply locally.
That's kind of what I think is like,
I don't really see a huge breakdown coming Bitcoin
pullback 30%. I think you just it's just going to take a little bit more time, right? And maybe it
might not be that long. It could be a week, it could be two weeks. Like I don't think it's going
to take forever. But you know, it's just going to take a little bit of time, which is okay. Or something like this, you know, like I was sharing this in the discord yesterday.
This is like when we made, you know, everyone remembers this.
If you were, if you were here last year, um, but climbing out of this, like.
It's not, it's, it's not fun.
You know, like you're looking at this and like, oh, price is going up.
Like everyone was probably bullish.
Like not really, you know,
because every time you make a pump off the low,
you make a nice move.
When it comes to, you know, carving out a bottom,
now you got a big move, boom, like big sell off, right?
Big sell off.
You got a big move, boom, big sell off.
You finally get another move, boom, big sell off, right? Big sell off. You got a big move, boom, big sell off. You finally get another move, boom, big sell off, right?
Boom, boom, boom, you know?
And then finally, you know, sellers run out of supply
and then price is able to fly, right?
I like that.
Sounds good.
But this is what bottom formation looks like, right?
If you don't Vrecover, which are the super rare cases,
this is what churning through supply
and putting in a bottom looks like.
You're gonna get a lot of moves up,
and you're gonna get a lot of big sell-offs.
And over time, what matters most is that
you're drifting higher, making higher lows,
and not coming back down to the low.
And this isn't fun.
This is like, even yesterday, right?
Like FOMC, we had a great day price action.
And then you saw a sell off yesterday, the following day.
And people were getting like,
we're like, oh, fuck, we're bearish again.
Like, no, that's not really true.
Because if we are carving a bottom, which I think we are, you know, that's what you're gonna see
You're gonna see moves up
Moves down right moves up down and you're gonna over time
You're just gonna gradually continue to grind higher and so people run out of shit to sell right and then you see what happens
You see what happens once you know once they run out of supply. Boom. So this
is what bottoms look like. They're not, they're not fun. And they're going to test their conviction
over and over again, as you kind of climb this wall of worry.
Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. And I remember coming out of that from a sentiment perspective. I mean, in my case,
I was very convicted that the lows had been set. It was a textbook accumulation model
and it was a glorious, glorious climb out of that. And if you guys remember to what
was occurring in, you know, alts specifically, right? The on chain had been basically dead.
And everybody's expecting a retest of the ETF announcement
highs at that point.
But once you really, you know, when you come back
and you fill in all the liquidity that is left
from the big leg up and you then are really looking for okay like
how is price now behaving once we get that we started you know as you can see
on Louis chart start setting these higher lows and higher highs then you
really start to kind of get like okay okay, we are now leaning towards,
you know, our next leg up, which I think where we're currently at, and we're currently in
potentially the process of doing I think that you have seen the downside. And now it's what you're
going to start to see is that slow grind up again. And, and it's now time like, okay, if you have been, you know, cash on the
sideline and you've been pretty, pretty liquid, it's like, okay, now we start to
look to deploy that and look for the strong names out of the gate, you know,
and I think that's why hype's gonna do particularly well and I've been calling a
few other things, but these names that are, you know, hot off the press and these names
that people are talking about when everything else
in the similar, you know, in the altcoin sector
is just getting beat to a pulp and destroyed
are the names that you really, really wanna pay attention to
especially if we get, you know, the next leg up in majors.
For me, the rainbow chart.
By chance.
What is a rainbow chart?
No, I don't.
I don't have the logarithmic regression bands.
Yeah.
Oh, dude, I think all those models, all the public ones I've seen have kind of failed.
Unfortunately, there might be a new one out there, but.
I kind of want to,
I'm trying to find a good one. Ah, shit, here we go again.
You know what I mean?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Let's see if we can...
Let's see if we can,
I don't know if I have a good one or not.
That's something I haven't looked at in a long time.
Can you talk about the rainbow chart? Absolutely.
Let's see. Hang on. I'm getting there. I'm getting there.
You guys think of eat here locally.
It's got a hold.
It's got a hold.
Hold on.
Yeah.
I wouldn't want to see too much of this FOMC pump kind of given back.
Here is fine, right?
Right now it's kind of like we pretty much
we're ranging sideways for 10 days.
Broke out, retrace a lot of this move.
A lot of this came after FOMC.
Makes sense that a good chunk of this gets retraced
but want to kind of see it hold in this level, flip this structure
into support. And if we do, I think we can continue to climb, you know, this wall of worry.
Yeah, I'm not feeling super bearish on ETH. My big issue with ETH here,
My big issue with ETH here,
one, like your retesting support.
My big issue is that on that move out of the range,
the blue box that you have,
you had a lot of open interest come onto the scene.
That's not a terrible thing
if the open interest traders
can actually defend their positions.
But a lot of open interest came in basically right where we're sitting right now.
So if these longs decide that they're going to puke and close their positions
now at you know slightly in profit break even you're going to see this thing pull
back from here probably about 100 points.
Okay. It wouldn't be the end of the world, but this is that area that needs to be defended
like without question. So how do I feel about ETH here? I've been conditioned to not trust
ETH and I've been conditioned to not believe in the traders that are trying to push it
up, right? They haven't been able to do anything for a long time
but you get to a point when like I have I've given this analogy in the past where
it's like you're holding a bouncy ball and you drop it on, you know,
asphalt and
You know it bounces the first bounce is the biggest the second bounce is smaller than the first one
The third bounce is smaller than the second one which is smaller than the first one, right?
It kind of runs out of momentum
And when I look at the eith higher time frame chart like maybe zoom out just a little bit louis to me
It looks like this is potentially
That kind of bouncy ball running out of steam area where each drop is getting
You know kind of slightly smaller than the
last one. And eventually the bouncy ball just kind of sits on the, on the pavement. It runs
out of steam and then it's got nowhere to go, but to be picked back up and to reverse.
Right. So I'm looking at this through a couple of different lenses, ultra locally, which
was your question. I think heath is in a potentially vulnerable position, especially
heading into the weekend where we have seen weekend over weekend.
Horrible price action for whatever reason, every weekend has just been awful.
Right.
There's always red every weekend.
There's the CME gap.
It's awful.
But I'm also looking at this, you know, structurally on a higher timeframe going.
This thing is
running out of steam to the downside.
It's going to turn around here and give us a big bounce soon.
And that might come honestly as soon as next week or the week following.
So I don't think it makes sense to just now get super bared up.
I think that that's, I think that's being emotional, right?
I would look at this and go, it's due for a big bounce here
very very soon, but I understand also that there was a lot of open interest added and
This is that level that needs to be defended. So
We'll just kind of have to wait and see
Yeah, I would agree with that. I would agree with that.
But yeah, we're starting to see signs, you know, this bearish momentum slowing.
No, we're not really making lower lows anymore.
We're starting to trade sideways and attempting to make higher lows, right?
Six hour RSI, been in an uptrend, right?
Got a nice little bear dip, bull div here forming.
And these have been working, right?
I've been catching a lot of bottoms on alts
with this same kind of viewpoint, right?
Looking at RSI, looking at price,
now seeing a lot of these big three drives into the lows,
right? And then kind of stalling out. And then once you start to see, you know, a three drive like
this, one, two, three, uh, and you start to see that price kind of stalls trade sideways, makes a
slightly higher low, you know, this should be your general area to look for a low, right? And start climbing back out. So that's kind of my main thesis.
However, you know, for talking super locally,
like I just brought up on the three,
this fucking drawing tool.
How I'm looking at it as this, right?
If you could hold this structure,
flip it into support,
we're gonna see a nice move out of ETH,
like soon, like today, going into the weekend.
But if we do continue to trade lower into here,
we'd likely have a little more time of reaccumulation
down here or something, right,
before seeing a bigger move.
So I'm kind of betting on this holding,
and I'm betting on this move happening sooner and quicker
and catching people off guard, normally how bottoms do,
especially with the sentiment out there.
So I'm expecting this to hold,
and that's why I was taking some stabs
at some ETH leverage longs this morning, right? Worst case scenario, I'm expecting this to hold and that's why I was taking some stabs at some ETH leverage longs this morning.
Worst case scenario, I'm wrong.
This comes a little lower, but again, we start coming lower. I think we have more time.
You know, we're gonna have more time to accumulate.
But if we do see a nice move off of this level, I think we're gonna see ETH and ALTs
start to push like now.
So it's kind of how I'm looking at it, engaging it.
I like how that sounds.
I do.
All right, Tuck, you got it.
Huh.
You were looking for a rainbow chart, weren't you?
Oh, well, I didn't find it, but I found this.
I know I went there probably 10 or 15 and
and I couldn't find a good none of them.
You have to like refit them every once in a while.
And apparently nobody's refitting them.
So, but this I just I was just looking up log regression trends
and this came up and I'm gonna take off all this text.
But I mean, this is just, this is since May of 23, right?
This has just been our uptrend
and whenever you get below the log trend, it ends up being a goodbye whenever you get above right it ends up being a good
Sell so right now. We're below you know
My opinion we probably just continue this
trend so
That's really all there is to it, in my opinion, but clean up trend, clean up
trend, right? We were down here for a while. We were down here from August 5th until October,
right? So for a couple of months, same with this. So could spend until May down here,
potentially. I don't know. We'll see. It could be it could be
upwards chop, you know, these lines are obviously going up,
but then you break out of it, something like that. But
interesting perspective just on our trend, because without this,
it doesn't, you know, it looks more random more sporadic but
It's not it's clean. I mean man, we're gonna start moving here soon like
Bitcoin pulls back 30 in a bull market
You know, i'm like what more can you ask for?
And you know what's what's super strange about this drop to me?
And this is a bit anecdotal a little bit
But bear with me no pun intended
You've got all these like YouTube bros right like the the YouTube normies every week. They got a new shill
You know they do the the crazy faces on their thumbnails,
those kind of guys, right?
Not the guys that just do like YouTube.
I'm talking about like the huge following,
the retail onboarders, you know, those kinds of guys, okay?
The soy jack thumbnail face guys.
They're getting kind of bared up here, man.
They're like convinced the cycle's over. They're all like, bared up here, man. They're like convinced the cycles over.
They're all like funding Bitcoin, you know, doom posting.
And I remember last cycle, all those guys,
they were just, they were, all they would say is buy the dip.
Like, oh, Bitcoin is down, you know,
30% during a bull market, like bid Bitcoin here.
Now they're like like it's just and then you have
the on chain guys too like what was his name yeah what is his name I think he I
think he's the CEO of that big on chain company it's like maybe crypto quant or something like that or what is it?
Let me find them real quick.
Um, Oh, yeah.
I mean, uh, you mean the glass node type, uh, key junk year or whatever.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
So he, yeah, he started, he's like budding Bitcoin here being like the cycles over, you know, and
I'm like, man, do you remember last cycle?
Like Willy Wu calling for like, you know, 300k Bitcoin, like all the on chain guys last
cycle, you know, talking about these crazy price targets.
And this cycle, we've got the YouTube bros and the on chain guys bared up to the tits right here, man.
Like just couldn't be more bearish. All of them, all of them.
And, uh, I don't know what it is, man. I just,
I know what it is. It's, uh, it's,
it's Larry Fink and the boys taking these, these guys to the cleaners.
They can't handle it. They can't make there's, there's, there's new, there's, it's Larry Fink and the boys taking these, these guys to the cleaners. They can't handle it.
They can't like there's, there's, there's new, there's, there's new, there's,
there's a new game in town, right?
That that's big money institutions, you know, with these ETFs and they're just,
things are changing, right?
And they don't know how to, uh, how to adapt.
Right.
And so they're just flipping bearish.
Um, and I've seen that across the board, like, and I agree, right? And so they're just flipping bearish. And I've seen that across the board,
and I agree, right? Like last cycle, right? Anytime we got a dip, it was everyone rallying,
you know, CT rallying, buy the dip, right? Like, we're fine, buy the dip. No one gave
a shit when we pulled back, right? I mean, I'm sure it was a little scary, but like, there was great sentiment on pullbacks because everyone was like, you know, just buy the dip. No one gave a no one gave a shit when we pulled back. Right. I mean, I'm sure it's a little scary. But like, there was great sentiment on pullbacks, because everyone was like, you know,
just buy the dip. We're just in a pullback. We're still in a macro uptrend. This cycle, none of that.
Yeah, like when we pull back, everyone's just depressed. It's like pullbacks are opportunities
like where did the crypto spirit go? And ultimately, it's being taken over by big
money institutions screwing with people with the price action and accumulating these assets.
And speaking of on chain, I've been seeing a lot of stuff from people that I follow,
I follow, you know, that Bitcoin supply, you know, on this pullback is dropping, right?
Bitcoin supply isn't increasing, it's dropping, right?
So if you're looking at on-chain, so which I'm surprised someone who's an on-chain guy
is getting bearish, but if he was looking at the right stuff, the Bitcoin supply during
this pullback has been dropping, which means that Bitcoin is
being accumulated.
If it was a top, Bitcoin supply would be increasing because people would be unloading their Bitcoin
and selling it onto exchanges.
It's the exact opposite happening.
Bitcoin supply has been dropping during this entire pullback, which is indicative of whale
accumulation,
big money accumulating, right into the,
and retail are panic selling right into their bits.
It's just, it's crazy.
I've been seeing it like all cycle.
It's just crazy.
And we're the crazy ones for remaining bullish.
It's like, whatever, we'll see.
Well, I mean, from a trader's perspective, you don't get bearish at range lows.
You don't get bearish at support.
You understand from a probabilistic nature your risk to return, right?
That's the whole point and the name of the game, right? You, it's been a great learning lesson this cycle,
I think for a lot of participants,
because this cycle has just been so much more difficult
compared to the previous cycles
where you can't just throw shit at a wall and it,
like previous cycles,
you threw shit at a wall and it stuck.
This cycle has not been the same.
Like you had been due diligent,
you've had to be analytical,
you've had to be able to remove emotions
out of a lot of, you know,
out of the noise in the room that is like CT
and the places in which people congregate here in the space.
And it's very fascinating to me from like a trading
perspective that people are willing to get bearish
at range lows.
People are willing to get bearish at like support
across the board.
Like I'm not just talking about support on Bitcoin.
I'm talking about support on indices. I'm talking about support on indices.
I'm talking about support on Bitcoin.
I'm talking about support on Ethereum, Solana, Altcoins.
Everything is at support.
You are at major resistance for high timeframe indicators
such as USDT dominance.
It's fascinating to me that,
and I think it's like I said, it's going to be
a great learning lesson for a lot of the participants that had it easy over last cycle or maybe
even had it easy this cycle, that this is going to be a healthy dose of reality check
and it's going to flush out the people that are serious about the game and the people
that aren't. If you're serious about the game, you take these experiences and you learn from them.
And it's really, really, really going to be, and we're at a pivotal, pivotal key inflection
point across the board.
And I'm not one that's willing to get bearish right here.
I'm just going to say it for what it is.
It's very apparent to me across the entire, every single sector, every single industry, every single market that we are at key pivotal spot and I'm willing to take calculated bets at these spots. And that's just me. So it's, it's, it's, if people didn't learn when we were at the
lows at 49K, when people capitulated on that 49K wick, and if they didn't learn from that, then, you know, I mean, I
hope they learn, you know, learned at the 76K wick, you know, it's just, it's time, it's, it's time. I'm ready for it.
6k wick, you know, it's just, it's time.
It's, it's time.
I'm ready for it.
For me, do you think that it's, it's a, there's any component to this that has
to do with like a quarterly rollover, right?
Obviously we know there's certain like options, expirations that really impact
things, but Q1 has been pretty crappy across the board, Like Trump takes office, there's fears of global trade wars.
S&P is obviously dragging everything down.
I mean, like the, the U S stock market has never been crypto has never been
more tied to us equities than it is right now.
So I'm curious if you're thinking like, all right, we got through Q1,
not great.
A lot of fear out there. Q2 is going to hit, we're going to see
sort of an immediate shift. Are you thinking it could be that quick? Or are you thinking maybe this draws out a little bit
further?
I think it could draw out further. I don't necessarily think that it goes, you know, I don't think that we necessarily go
straight up in a straight line or straight down in a straight line I think it takes time it takes
You know the bigger players and the bigger institutions and the new and fresh demand time to position for the you know
Let's just call it the counter trend move and like you said what we have been seeing and what's been occurring lately
from what we've talked about in the Discord and on on MarketCheck is the relationship
that equities and crypto is taken around specifically the VIX expiration and the options expiration
and we went in and the expiration that we're seeing today is the second largest option options expiration ever. And when we
were at 6000 on the SPX, there was largely you know, nobody
was positioned at the downside and you saw volatility just, you
know, extremely low. And now what we're seeing is we're
seeing everybody pile in to the long vol trade, we're seeing is we're seeing everybody pile in
to the long vol trade.
We're seeing everybody pile into hedge for downside
and hedge and get protection.
But ultimately what people must understand is volatility
and the VIX is inherently a mean reverting
measure of the market, right?
It wants to at all times find, is inherently a mean reverting measure of the market, right?
It wants to at all times find the mean.
And so right now, if you take a measure of volatility
over the past five years,
we are greatly overstated right now.
And so when you have instances like we just had where we, you know, the skew is to the upside, and
everybody's like I said, piling into the long vol trade, what
ultimately ensues and what I've been eyeing is the 2018 fractal
on the VIX, but a compression, and that long vol trade unwind
and then shift back into the short vol trade. So you're
going to likely see that and I think that's what's occurring
right now. It's something that I called out in my channel for all
the gigachats and all the premium members in the
Discord. It's something that's going to occur over the next 12
months in my eyes and from what I'm viewing and my thesis and
this vol trade is not gonna play out,
and you're gonna see people start to then,
you know, liquidity and capital start to,
cause what we saw was a retraction of liquidity and capital
over the past month to two months,
and you're going to see that capital liquidity
start to flow back out into names that are
in the IWM, into crypto, into more risk on names because we saw as we saw a retraction.
And a big metric that a lot of people have been watching has been the M2 money supply
and it has been expanding. expanding, right? And not only that, we also saw with this previous at previous FOMC is an easing of monetary conditions by
the Fed. And so that, along with a compression of volatility and
expanding into money supply leads us into a more risk on environment to where more capital intensive names,
such as names in the IWM,
will be able to be in the environment
that will thrive and do better.
And as we know, Bitcoin and crypto is highly correlated
to the IWM and to these broader risk on markets. And so the play,
in my opinion, is only just now beginning. I don't even think we've even begun. I think that's very
important to take note of. We have been in a monetary environment,
a monetary regime where it has been unbelievably difficult
for risk on assets to do anything substantial.
And that just goes to show how strong,
from what I've said time and time again,
how strong the institutional bid has been
for Bitcoin in particular and for it to go up in a manner in which it has gone up
against such a strong headwind, right?
And not only that, I think that you really start to see
to some regulatory conditions
become clarified.
That's what the committee is doing.
That's what a lot of these entities
that Trump has put into place or trying to do
is try to bring clarity to the space.
We just saw an NFT ETF,
we're starting to see a Solana ETF,
potential Litecoin ETF, Doge ETF,
all bidding for applications and approvals.
And not only that, today what we saw
was we saw tornado cash cleared.
That to me is just signaling
that they are taking off the guardrails right now until they can figure
out how they want to put those back on.
And then once they do so, I don't think it's going to be, you know, it's going to be, you
know, where you're probably gonna have to register and yada, yada, yada.
But right now they're taking off the guardrails and that for a lot of people, especially the
bigger players from a liability perspective is what they want to see.
They want to see Ripple winning its lawsuit against the SEC and the SEC not appealing.
You want to see entities like Tornado Cash get cleared.
You want to see Ross Ulbright get pardoned. This
to a lot of the people that have, you know, hoards of cash, that to them gives them more
of a relief from, you know, potential legal ramifications that might come down the line.
And it eases those woes and allows them to be more confident
in deploying capital moving forward.
So like I said, we're only just getting started.
It's the ball game is in the first or second inning.
It's not, we're not even close to the end.
And I think the music is only just getting started.
And we haven't even seen what happens when, you know,
the music's at full blast
and there's a true feeding frenzy in the markets.
And it's just, I'm really excited what the future holds.
future holds. We're going to
We're gonna end on that note.
That was great Prometheus. All right, Tucker, I'm gonna excited what the
end on that note. That was a
great Prometheus. Alright,
Tucker. I'm going to have you
take us out today. Oh yeah. I
mean, you're the guy. Will you
pull up the terminal? I don't
have it pulled out but I could
pull it up, baby. Pull it up. Yeah, that was fantastic Prometheus.
That was lovely. I think you're right.
I'm playing around. No, he's not.
Appreciate it.
Yeah, man. Locked in techie guy.
That's that's true. No, I don't have it memorized the way Tommy does.
Not even close, but alright guys, that is it for us today. That is it. It is Friday. I want everyone to go enjoy their weekend. But as we usually do at the end of these
calls, if you would like to get more involved with with BB with
us, links in the description below, we have the discord, we
have the Academy, and we have this beautiful terminal right
here, which Max is displaying some features of.
Yeah, it's pretty nice guys. I've been playing around with it a little more recently,
specifically on the heat maps.
Put a lot of time and effort into this.
So go check that out.
I think we're gonna run some free trials
and maybe make part of this free,
at least the portfolio track are part of it free.
So we'll have some updates for you guys there soon.
But anyways, yeah, that's it for us.
We also, I guess if you, as Tommy,
I don't remember how he transitions into this,
but we do have an SEC registered hedge fund
if you don't wanna trade your own capital capital we have the ability to do that again links
in the description below but yeah guys that's a about as much of the outro as I
remember so I'm sure everyone's missing Tommy but anyways that's it for us it's
Friday enjoy the weekend.
It's not very nice here, unfortunately,
but I hope it is nice wherever you guys are.
So anyways, that's it.
And we will see you guys on Monday.
