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MARKET ANALYSIS | ETF INVESTING $WILD
Recorded: June 4, 2025 Duration: 2:34:36Space Recording
Short Summary
Circle's upcoming IPO is generating significant buzz, with reports of it being oversubscribed by 25 times, signaling strong investor interest and a bullish trend in the crypto market.
Full Transcription
Thank you. yeah yo my check i had a disconnect from the wi-fi my check my check i got you what's up
evan good afternoon you can't hear me i did i do hear you loud and clear oh and you rocked out
all right we'll get evan right back here. I'll send him another invite here.
A little market update.
Welcome in, everyone.
Stocks on Spaces, the show we run every Monday through Thursday here from a power hour until
about an hour after the market.
Sometimes, like yesterday, we go way further than that.
But we always ride the conversation.
Great stuff.
Great panel, as always, sharing thoughts around the market.
Got Evan back up here now.
I'm going through the market real fast.
A little market update here for your Wednesday.
I didn't even know what day of the week
it was there for a second.
Wednesday afternoon, we are basically flat on SPY.
It's up a dollar, it's 0.1, 0.2%, we'll call it.
QQQ, a little bit stronger, up a couple bucks, 0.45%, or breakeven on the Dow
and IWM. Kind of a mixed bag, mostly green, but mixed bag across tech. Tesla, obviously,
down a little bit today. Apple's basically breakeven. Meta outperforming today at 3%.
We also have Broadcom up about 1.76 uh amazon having a decent afternoon up one
percent as well other things pretty flat nvidia microsoft not much to talk about there uh there's
been some other things moving in the market some different stories here and there but not a whole
lot going on but we'll uh we'll talk all about it of course evan how are you just first off
i'm doing well i'm doing well it's an interesting week um i mean trader market news is here i've
been taking some trades or something yeah i'm gonna need a full full trade analysis update on
the trade that you placed yesterday and got out of today yeah it did well we'll just talk about
that one later yeah well i'm sure we'll hit on that update of a tweet that just came out from the same person just a few moments ago as well.
We'll hit on a lot of things here.
Evan, it's been a slow day, honestly, in the market.
We had a full hour-long conversation.
I was learning all about New York.
I'm going to try to get up there to New York one of these days.
What did you learn about New York?
Anything good?
A little bit about airports
and where stuff's at.
You want to fly into JFK?
JFK is easier, yeah.
You won't even be able to fly in La Guardia.
Definitely avoid Newark.
The easiest route for me
was Newark.
Don't do that.
They're having air traffic control problems.
Maybe I'm wrong here
find the jfk i was just told it was very ghetto and then la guardia was my second option but
apparently jfk is the better option i don't know i don't know anything about it still learning
uh anyways well uh we can maybe rehash that at some other time um get some people up here i see
urkel down there in the audience the real people know
you fly into JFK
take the air tram to Jamaica
Jamaica to the city
easier than anything else
just fly into Newark dammit
the freaking problems are over
options Mike
can I get an unbiased opinion here
if you go to New York City
where do you fly into?
Newark.
Okay.
Newark's close.
It's a 20-minute train into the city on the path is right there,
or like a 15, 20-minute Uber ride.
It's just right there.
And they have their runway back up, so the problems are resolved.
What about what's the world?
Hey, why don't you ask what problems yeah what a flood like what happened
well they had they had a problem with no the air the tarmac the one runway was down for for just
for maintenance they had a research that was also brought on by that was brought on by one
runway being opened and they didn't cut enough traffic back. Things are back to normal there.
LaGuardia has gotten nicer.
We don't need to keep digging in on this.
LaGuardia, they've redone it.
It's actually pretty nice now.
Does it make a big difference if you're going to Manhattan either way?
JFK is the easiest, I think.
They're all the same.
JFK looked like the furthest when I looked at a map.
It's the furthest.
It's all easy. All right. If you're in the same the furthest when i looked at a map the furthest it's all it's all it's all easy
all right if you're in the comments well yeah so let's talk markets options mike you kick us off
what are we uh what are we trading today did you get any uh i'm sure you traded tesla short
at some point even uh day trader market news over here did i didn't touch tesla to the short side
today i left tesla alone i um i came in in long hood on that pop this morning on the news.
I sold my last half of my sock that I had that I bought yesterday for $4 on each share.
So I took that off around the $74 area and changed it.
I take it off at $74.30.
Then I took a quick trade on HIMSS, made a couple hundred bucks,
and then I traded META three times and made real nice money
because META was the name today.
META had this beautiful name.
It's been breaking out.
It's pushing up nicely here.
It's on the highs of the day.
If you didn't like META, Amazon gave a nice push today.
Microsoft got three bucks from the all-time high.
AMD has been fairly strong today pushing up here.
It's a market of names. The indexes aren't really moving right now. So, you know, AMD took it at a big V bounce, dipped on
the open, went all the way down to 115 to 80 before it bounced. And, you know, you could have
entered it as soon as it took out the high of the day. And that was around, I don't know, around
lunchtime, right? Somewhere around there, took it out at 1 o'clock this afternoon.
Finally took that out and started to move.
Corweave continues to be on a tear.
New highs there, new all-time highs.
You know, Palantir and Hood today, kind of the disappointments, couldn't get going.
Not much going on in the coin world.
Crowd came roaring back off the lows, but has dipped back down again.
The market is strong.
The market wants to go higher.
The president was vocal early and then has been quiet again.
And again, when he's quiet, the market tends to want to go higher.
And, you know, we're up slightly today.
It's not a big day in the market, but, you know, not every day is going to be a big day.
You know, oh, Netflix, another all-time high.
Stop me if I've said that before in the last month or so.
God. Yeah, I mean, there's not much not to like here.
It's just one of those slower days.
We have an IPO in Circle tomorrow.
That's the crypto, a little crypto name that supposedly is like 25 times oversold.
That should be interesting. We're going to price that tonight.
And, you know, we had bad data today and the market didn't care it shrugged off a very
weak adp number it shrugged off a very weak ism numbers at uh at 10 o'clock and i don't know
everything feels fine the market just seems to want to melt up it wants to go higher
yeah i mean there's not much when i look at today i look at the last two days and i see
two basically slow trend of the upside days and i see basically i mean marginally higher high today
but basically a consolidation day today resilient market any any slight news blip gets bought up
immediately you you mentioned it earlier and earlier, it's broadening out.
So these Mag 7 names are kind of taking turns,
not really doing a whole lot.
Some of them are, but the bigger ones,
your Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple,
not really doing much of anything today.
Apple tried to break out today, this downtrend.
It's been in this wedge pattern.
It got briefly above it for about 20 minutes
before it came back in, even with that downgrade.
And I had a big downgrade this morning from
I forget who it was. Was somebody downgraded
them to hold?
Need them. Thank you. Couldn't remember.
There was also a headline
about a delay with what
Apple and Baba
and the AI rollout in China due to
the current situation of everything going
on. And it showed
resiliency. Are we so sure it's because of the Trump stuff?
Or is it literally Apple's behind an AI everywhere
and this headline just fits into it?
I don't know. We'll see.
It would be a convenient excuse.
And it's funny that an Apple bull is even kind of saying that at this point
because it makes sense, right?
It would be a very convenient excuse.
If you're looking for my one little...
My one little concern today is bonds are on the highs, which I would love, but they were moving off of the bad news.
I mean, it felt more like a flight to safety today than they were being bought for good reasons.
It kind of felt like the news rattles some people, so they bought bonds.
Just weird.
I just found the move there weird today.
It wasn't like they were moving and the market's not moving with them. It typically does. So just a little weird did the move there weird today it wasn't like they're moving
and the market's not moving with them it typically does so just a little bit of weirdness there
yeah for sure let me get your take on tesla just do you think with the stuff going on with elon
uh maybe a short-term catalyst for some people to lock in some profit but when you look at tesla
here do you think okay maybe it catches some support here? Does it come down maybe a little further, 320 is that area, and then get
a run up into the launch? What are your thoughts around Tesla? I was, you know, 330 has been my
big area for support. We came down, we dipped below it today and retook it and we're above it now.
I think that's a big spot.
I think that's a big spot. And if you lose 330, then you're starting to look towards the 220,
If you lose 330, then you're starting to look towards the 222 area would be your next area to watch.
And then you have a gap.
Sorry, 322.
Sorry, 322.
And then you have that gap down at 310.80 down there.
But I don't know.
I mean, he was tweeting again today.
You know, he last night he was threatening Republicans that voted for the bill that, you know, your time is going to come up when you're up for in the midterms.
He's changed his tune here.
He just tweeted that about 10 minutes ago.
So, I mean, I don't know.
I think politics left a sour taste in his mouth and he's just, he's had enough. So, you know, I think the market just wants it to stop and be out of politics and just be
the CEO, be the CEO.
You know, we'll see what happens there. What do you think, Evan?
I'm more fine with this than what was happening before. I mean,
he's just kind of speaking his mind. I'll be curious to see what the market ends up taking with this i i saw that news
yesterday and thought it was bearish for the test in the short term whether it is or isn't just the
there was a a narrative that tesla was moving up on earlier this year that this connection was you
know part of that so it would make just natural sense when there's a question of that it would
it would move down and we'll see what happens you know as it because trump has not
said anything yet and i don't think that's yeah he did he acknowledged it but he's not he didn't
say much about it i think that's uh i think it's a fair point to say that part of the narrative
like just in the short term would be like okay people are like gonna if anything people that
are up on a
position would take some profits out because of it. Okay. Maybe there's a risk here. But my argument
to this, and I'd love to know what you guys think, what can Trump or what's the retaliation
even look like? I just think that Elon's not going to really be affected or Tesla's not really
going to be affected by this in a whole, mean the regulations around autonomous driving is the only thing I could really come up with
that would probably negatively affect outside of that I feel like they're pretty much safe
I mean you could bad mouth them I mean Tesla's no longer an EV company and you know you get news
like today where China sales were down, what, 14%
year over year. And the stock doesn't flinch anymore because it's all about looking forward
for the robo taxi, right? The FSD, the robotics. So the EV stuff, nobody really cares about anymore
because nobody's looking at them that way. They're looking as a different company. So,
They're not, nobody's looking at them that way.
They're looking as a different company.
So, I mean, he could put tariffs on him.
He could, I don't know.
He can make it so it's hard to,
he can make it hard for them to do the robo tax.
I don't think he will, but I just think, you know,
you don't want Trump raging on you.
I mean, I think that's the one thing, you know,
you just don't want that.
It's just not good for business.
It's not good for your image.
And yeah, I'll leave't want that. It's just not good for business. It's not good for your image.
Yeah, I'll leave it at that.
It would take a lot more, in my opinion, to have that kind of reaction.
Not saying anyone thinks it will.
Based off of just one disagreement when it is the context of this was your largest donor.
For pretty much everyone in there, this was their largest donor.
So it'll probably take a little bit for them to change that opinion.
One last thing. I was surprised.
Sorry, Scott. He's not rallying against an executive order
or a statement by the president.
He's rallying against a bill
that has to be passed by both
houses of Congress.
Like,
there is no unified view when it comes to everything we should spend
money on. That's like an obvious reality. There's always some level of compromise that
goes into every spending bill that's ever been put out. And so what Elon's saying is we are just agreeing by passing this bill to spend way too much
money and increase the deficit by too much.
And we shouldn't commit to that much spending.
That's what Elon's saying.
And I mean, he's probably right, ethically speaking.
The question is, is how much longer do you continue to kick the can down the road?
We've been kicking the can down the road for deficit in debt for a long time.
Can we do it for another 10 years?
Maybe.
Some people even say probably.
But that's not the point.
The point is you eventually have to stop spending like drunken sailors.
And he's trying to call that out.
So, no, I don't think this is an attack from him on Trump.
I know Trump wants to get the bill passed because he wants his agenda to get rolling.
But I think, frankly, if Elon and Trump were to have spoken about this, and I imagine they have,
Elon probably told him, like, look, there's just way too many, way too much pork in the bill
that other members of Congress want in the bill in order to get it passed. And we need to take
the pork out. And Trump's retort to him is
probably without the pork it won't pass which is also probably true they're probably in somewhat
agreement and some of this right yeah i was just saying i have to play the politics side and and
then elon is turning around and he's attacking the actual politicians like it this could be such
a nothing burger yeah and people seem to have short memories but what you just said emp is exactly what trump said actually when they first asked him about this
trump said he was like the they they asked him about elon's disapproval of the bill and trump said
well i talked to elon about it and i explained to him that like if we don't have this stuff in the
bill it won't pass that's what he said in the white house to the reporter who asked him about
it when this whole thing first started so i I imagine that if you take him for his word,
and that seems like a pretty reasonable conclusion of the conversation, Elon was probably like,
there's too much fat in the bill. Trump was probably like, I can't pass the bill without
the fat. And they were at odds. And Elon was like, well, I'm not going to keep my mouth shut about it.
He probably, Trump probably didn't want him to tweet, kill the bill. That probably doesn't help, uh, get a consensus together.
But I mean, look, the, the idea that we get a good bill that like the sort of bill that Elon
wants that doesn't increase the deficit and get it passed through this Congress is like close to zero. You know,
because this Congress is, these are the same interested parties that have been in power for
a long time, right? Like many of the people, the sitting Congress people today are the same sitting
Congress people from a decade ago. They have the same entrenched interests. And again, on both
sides, I always want to reiterate that this isn't a one sided thing.
There are entrenched interests on both sides that need to be met by the bill. You know,
and this goes back to the tweet in the conversation we had yesterday in the tweet I put out where this is just a product of elected officials. Like when you have to elect officials and especially
when they don't have term limits, there are entrenched interests that set in. And those entrenched interests have to be pleased. Their pockets
have to be filled. The obligations have to be met. And so a lot of Congress people simply will not
vote for a bill where those provisions are not being made. And the idea that we can get a smart
bill that reduces the deficit passed today in this Congress, I mean, I hope Elon knows that that is impossible.
I mean, maybe he's going to take the hardline approach of saying, like, if it is impossible, then don't pass anything at all and shut down the government.
But I hope he doesn't take that approach. But, you know, again, this is sort of I criticize Trump for this on the tariffs thing.
I'll criticize Elon for
this now. And I rarely, you guys know, I rarely criticize Elon, but you know, this is kind of
the same sort of heavy handed approach where it's like, we can acknowledge the problem,
but all change in a democratic system has to be made incrementally. We don't have a choice.
We don't have a choice. You're never going to have the sort of consensus you need
in a democratic system, especially one like the United States with checks and balances.
You're never going to have the sort of momentum and velocity and speed that you expect
to get things done. Because there are many stages by which legislation has to pass through,
has to go through judicial overview, different branches of government. In some cases, the states have to be involved. So the idea that like, look, I acknowledge
the debt is a problem. I acknowledge the deficit is a problem. I acknowledge a lot of these problems
that are being pointed out. And I agree with them conceptually that they are problems that need to
be addressed. But the idea that we can take a sledgehammer to it and fix it overnight is wrong on both sides.
Trump was wrong about that with the tariffs.
Elon is now wrong about that, in my opinion,
with the idea that we can rewrite a deficit-neutral bill
and get it passed through today's Congress.
It's not going to happen.
So we need to just be grown-ups here.
And I've been saying that I wish these people are much older than me and have much
more life experience than me but i wish these people were more mature and like it all it takes
a little bit of maturity a little bit of clarity to just sit down and be like okay what's best for
the country right now how do we minimize the impact to the economy as we make these changes
how do we minimize the impact to unemployment? How do we
protect the American people if we do want to make this sort of economic change? That's what should
be on the mind of legislators and on the minds of people like Elon. Like, I get it. Elon's concerned
about the debt. He wants to solve it. We can't take a sledgehammer to the spending bill or shut
down the government just to get that point across. We can acknowledge the point, maybe make some edits to this bill,
make more edits to the next bill, make even more edits to the bill after that.
That's how you get things done in a democracy.
It sucks. It's slow.
But that's the only right way to do it.
And that's how you minimize the pain from it.
And not only the pain to markets, but the pain to the real economy, too,
and everyday people and their jobs and livelihoods.
So everyone just needs to chill and try to be logical about this.
I would hope so.
But, you know, I don't know.
Even Elon seems a little aggressive for me on this issue.
So, I don't know.
wolfie um just just from stock uh the stock price perspective tesla basically the rally we just saw
Wolfie?
so like go back to the earnings they had the bad print stock wasn't going down we were all on the
call um figured it'd get to like 390 overshoot maybe maybe 320. It overshot that. Basically, the move from the lows is a little bit more within like 1% to 2% of a 50% retrace peak to trough.
So, you know, that in conjunction with, you know, we always talk about Nancy Pelosi being a great trader.
I've never seen anybody top-tick Tesla like Kimball Musk.
His sales comment precisely the local tops or longer-term tops.
The 50% retrace in conjunction with the Kimball Musk sell,
in conjunction with whether or not we like it, you know, Elon not being in the white house and being on the outside of the white
house is different than Elon being in the white house and being like what
originally we viewed as like the point person for Trump.
And then the last thing is,
this is not like,
like in the earnings call or in the earnings day.
I'd said, I'm not the only one that said this,
but typically this stock gets ahead of itself to the downside and to the upside.
And so like on the back of this move.
Sorry to interrupt.
Was there any news on Snowflake?
This thing is just falling off.
I don't see anything, but it is falling off a cliff um
anyways uh on the on the on the on the back of these like moves eventually you get to a point
where like it's a show me thing and so i you know they have their they have their event coming up
they have the robo taxi stuff coming um they're eventually going to have to show. And if they don't, you know, the push-pull point would probably be that $300, $305 level,
which is where the $200 day basically sits.
So just from a stock market perspective, that's how I'd look at it.
Okay, I see it.
I'm not sure if it's confirmed yet, but I'm seeing it on tweets.
I got it.
Yeah, that's what it is.
This is the headline that's going around right now.
It's from a publication called HackRed.
I don't know it.
Hackers leak.
Data of 88 million AT&T customers with SSN.
That news was out.
About links to earlier Snowflake related to Hack.
That news was out 15 minutes ago.
It was out on AT&T.
And I think this further piece just came out that tied Snowflake to it. But yeah, it was
about 20 minutes ago when AT&T
started getting hit on this headline.
So they're tying Snowflake to this
hack. That's why it's getting hit.
Correct.
Yeah, Wolfie, you can continue.
Sorry, that was a good introduction.
That's pretty much it. This thing gets ahead of itself uh elon's really good at selling a story uh really good at
getting people to disregard like the numbers in front of them for like a bigger picture but
you know you can only do that for for so long before that that rubber has to meet the road
lack of no pun intended and we have the taxi rover taxi coming up, so they have to actually hit it, basically.
That's exactly what I was going to say.
It's finally June.
We're actually starting to see some of those ones.
People might have been disappointed by that number of 10 rollout,
but yeah, the start of it's actually here.
That's the overarching point that you and I kind of see there.
You can sell to Vision, the stock price will get ahead of itself,
but then people would typically ring the register before the actual thing happens,
those who are just trading it.
And then it's just up to how well it does.
And so if they come out and they exceed expectations on RoboTaxi stuff,
the stock would get a bounce probably around 100, 200 a day if it gets that low.
If not, then he's going to have to
kick the can to the next vision, in my opinion.
sorry about that i was trying to figure out this uh
i am you want me to fill the gap with the rest of the stuff that i was going to say
i do i absolutely okay cool yeah no it's because i was i was trying to tie like where's the snow
at&t i was where i went down that tangent right now, but yeah. Yeah. If you want to,
I mean, we don't have to,
yeah,
no problem.
But,
but,
what other things are going on in the slow market today?
Yeah.
So I told,
I said yesterday and Evan,
I tried,
I went along,
some Apple yesterday.
I was able to make a little bit of profit on that pop,
but I was hoping that it would kind of continue.
And if we saw any register ringing
for some of these other mega caps
that it would just kind of be handed
the baton moving forward to the
event. I got stopped
out. If it breaks out
again, I'll give it a shot, but I'm not
front-running it now, now that I've
given it a shot. I think
options Mike mentioned it earlier.
They did get above the 205, 200 hour, and then above daily moving averages.
I really rejected a pivot.
Outside of that, just trimming some winners.
I trimmed some meta.
I trimmed some other stuff.
I had a small piece remaining of Unity Software calls.
I got right up against the downtrend,
and then they had a headline about their CTO leaving the company.
So I got stopped out on the remaining balance there.
That's from like two weeks ago.
It already really exploded.
So happy with the outcome regardless., Dash had an all time high. I think it's interesting that Netflix and Spotify moved basically in conjunction or one leads the other within a couple of days. Both of them hitting an all time high. I think options Mike mentioned that as well.
I'm more now kind of looking again for some of these idiosyncratic plays.
Some of these things have been beaten up.
I'm not for dead.
I posted something earlier on my feed about how this seasonal period for Adobe, for example, historically in the last 10 years, specifically, I went back 10 years.
I don't want to go back farther.
I'm sure it's better.
It's as good farther but between june and august 18th in the last 10 years that stock's
never been down um you go if you take it out to august uh 30 at the end of august you've got two
two years where the stock's been down um i think it's 2022 and then 2015. 2015 it was down like one percent so it's negligible
um and then you know 20 2022 was down meaningfully outside of that it's on average return for this
period this three month period is about um i think it's 40 give or take so this season leaves a good
a good period.
Stock's been beating up, down 40% off its highs,
pressing up against a downtrend,
and has earnings next week.
So, you know, we talked about this with other names in the past.
You know, I talked about it with like Dollar Tree,
talked about a snowflake early in the year,
talked about it elsewhere.
But if we can get some some sort of
you know better than feared number or some sort of you know ai development push out of them um i
really think the stock could you know be re-accelerate to the upside if they have a bad quarter
next week throw it out the window right but um I do think the setup from an Ivy perspective,
from an options perspective, seasonality perspective, et cetera,
kind of sets up well.
Lululemon after the bell, there's a lot of pin action that can come off from the back of it, Nike, et cetera.
And same kind of concept.
A lot of these names pushing up against downtrends.
If, you know, Lulu's better than feared. Lulu is tomorrow, right? Same kind of concept. A lot of these names pushing up against downtrends.
If, you know, Lulu's better than feared.
Lulu is tomorrow, right?
It's either before the bill tomorrow or tomorrow.
Tomorrow after the close.
After.
I have it before.
Okay, cool.
All right, cool.
If it's, no, it says that the results will come out before,
but the conference call will fall at 4.30 p.m.
I don't know, we'll see.
But tomorrow, before, after, either way,
if Lulu can give people a better than feared,
remember, I think it sets the stage for some of these beaten up names to kind of play catch up, possibly.
And that's kind of like where I'm at.
I'm looking for catch up names or I'm looking for, you know,
not the mag seven, but you know, breakout names.
I gave Apple a try didn't work. So I'm out on that.
And then outside of that, just some of these,
some of these value names that, you know,
work in different periods are coming up against support levels.
I've mentioned a couple of them.
Another one I've been monitoring here against 130 is Pepsi.
Just again, just for some of these mean reversions.
And then lastly, some of these smaller names that I kind of, you know, some of them of them i'm gonna leave some of them for like
stock talk for example i'm assuming you guys will talk about like asts for example but some of these
other smaller names uh peloton held its trend breaking back up against uh breaking back out
against its recent uh highs uh recent high levels a lot of really crazy call volume in on that one
um and and a lot of buying up against support.
So I'm paying attention to that kind of stuff.
Nothing really too out in the weeds beyond that.
Yeah.
And if I've got stuff that's done really well in a short period of time, take you, for example, I'm trimming it.
And that's pretty much it for today.
Appreciate those thoughts, Wolfie.
Urkel, we haven't heard from you in a little while in these spaces.
Would love to see what you've been trading, what's been on your radar lately. And I definitely want an update on you were one of the first people uh on this space especially that was uh calling for bitcoin new all-time highs and uh that was
gosh a month ago or more at this point uh at least uh several weeks ago and uh mstr as well
I think you were all over those names so I would love to get some updated thoughts on
on that and then whatever else is on your mind and what you've been trading sure thing thanks for having me on again um i tuned in over the last couple weeks but i was
away in mexico and the reception there was spotty at best and i tried to chime in and
really couldn't um but yeah did you enjoy it mexico's great right okay i did yeah i've actually
i've got somebody in my family who's really, really sick right now,
and we got them well enough to travel.
So it was more of a trip to just kind of spend quality time with them.
So very emotional trip, but also nice to get out of the way and get back to it here.
Always kept an eye on the markets, of course, with morning sunrises and coffee and such.
So yeah, I mean...
Glad you're back.
Thanks, man. I appreciate it. You know, nothing's really changed in this market over the last
two months. The speed of which we've rallied or moved up has kind of slowed, as you'd expect,
as many of the discounts got shopped up but with spy and qqq which i track
just for overall health both of them were in a two three week consolidation range and both of them
are breaking out this week again the moves are a little bit slower but i do agree with options mike
that this this market just wants to keep pushing higher.
So, you know, it's a dip buyers market, and there are plenty of opportunities and different ways to play it. So if you're a breakout trader, there are almost daily breakout setups in this market.
Two that I'm watching personally right now are Amazon, which appears to be breaking out on the daily off of
the 205 206 level and if it can hold this move i do think we can get about 212 ish first on it and
if this market wants to keep rallying i'm actually aiming for about 220 or so on it short term
so i've got an amazon swing going and i'm also watching AMD. I've kind of put this one
on my radar just in light of Nvidia's recent performance too. And AMD has been trending down
for over a year going back to early 2024. And on the weekly chart, it does appear to be at least
attempting a breakout, but it does need to climb over 120 and it's kind of stalling out there
today. I took a position in AMD this week. I've rarely ever touched a stock, but taking a stab
just with some of the laggers and some of the stocks that maybe haven't quite broken out yet
are lagging others. So liking the AMD move and if it can climb over that 120 wall, it's got room up to
140 if it really wanted to get excited. I'm not suggesting that happens, but the possibility is
there. And in terms of risk reward, I liked it here on a potential weekly breakout. So I did
take some AMD too. Yeah. And in terms of Bitcoin, so just to quickly finish my thoughts on where the market's
at, with SPY and QQQ beginning to break out of multi-week ranges again this week, albeit a little
bit slower, you can, again, identify great opportunities daily for breakouts if you're a
very short-term trader. And if you're a swing trader, there are also great stocks that have pulled back recently
into support zones and consolidated.
Those are also great for accumulation
before continuation higher.
That's my preferred style of swing trading.
I'm not the best breakout trader.
I'm a pretty busy guy in my day-to-day life.
So swing trading really works best for me.
So identifying key pullbacks is one way I like to swing
and then adding at supports and riding the wave up.
So a number of plays like that out there too,
if you're not a breakout trader either.
So, you know, they mentioned Tesla earlier off the 330s.
I agree.
That's one I'm watching right now.
330s is a big support level. And if we give that up, I do think we could see three, three Oh five again. Um, so, you know, a little bit of caution there, but you know,
Robin hood and app are two stocks I'm watching this week. I did take a hood swing, um,
completely separate from my long-term holdings of hood. I did take a swing this week
off 67, just in anticipation of potential S&P inclusion on Friday. And I don't know whether or
not they get in. And if they get in, I don't know if that's a sell the news event. But I did think
in a market that is trending higher, generally speaking, good news or anticipation of good news is is good
enough to push price higher so hood's had a really good week so far and app is breaking out today to
app i had that one app is thought to be the app is thought to be the company that most likely goes
it would doesn't that's probably yes and yeah and i had both that was my thesis on both of those
this week was you know they're both at breakout levels app was at 401 and hood was at 67 so again
in a market that's trending higher good news or the anticipation of good news can certainly lead
to price going higher but that can also lead to a sell the news scenario. So, you know, if you're
chasing or adding, just be cautious that that is always a possible outcome. And in terms of Bitcoin,
so I'll just jump into that real quick. I certainly was pushing for all time highs. I thought all the
signs were there, not only in terms of technicals, but something I've alluded to with this administration.
They are very pro-crypto.
The president himself is accumulating, his family is accumulating, they are firing regulators
left, right and center.
It's just really hard for me to be bearish on crypto, given this current administration
stance and, you know, just being several short months into
the four-year period. So I do have Bitcoin at 104 support. So that's kind of the support level
I've been monitoring this week. And if that breaks down, I do think we can see 95k again.
But if we do hold 104k, I'm actually looking for a move potentially to the $120,000 to $130,000 range, which would be my next Fib extension level.
So it is consolidating here.
And a lot of these crypto plays that pulled back with Bitcoin over the last couple of weeks, MSTR being one of them, appear to be curling out of bases too.
So that's just something to monitor. When we covered MSTR a couple of weeks ago, and you
asked me about risk reward there, because I was talking about that off the 200 and 300 levels.
And I mentioned how 400 to 420 was a significant resistance wall. And if you look at the daily
chart there, it actually rejected there for over two weeks.
It kept bouncing off 425 or so.
And eventually when Bitcoin dropped from all time highs,
MSTR followed down.
But it does appear to be basing off the 350 to 370 range.
And it did pop up yesterday
and is holding up quite nicely today.
So I do find the risk reward far better now, if Bitcoin can continue higher with MSTR off this 350 to 370 range.
and then continuation higher.
So if you look at the MSTR chart,
that certainly qualifies as that type of scenario
where you pull back base for a week and then continue higher.
So I've got my eyes on that too.
Mara or Marathon is lagging the other Bitcoin miners,
but there is a potential daily breakout setting up there.
Again, a little questionable with the bitcoin miners but i covered them a
couple months ago when i was talking on the spaces they did look or appear to be putting in potential
bottoms after a year-long downtrend so there's certainly been some tradable charts in that
sector as well and if bitcoin can rally off104k area again and push up to
that $120k level, I do think you could have a significant rally in the crypto sector too after
a week of pullbacks or so. So I apologize for hogging the mic there a little bit,
but just kind of my thoughts on the crypto and non-crypto sectors out there.
Just kind of my thoughts on the crypto and non-crypto sectors out there.
Do you have any thoughts around MicroStrategy?
Is it still kind of leading Bitcoin's move up, down?
Or are they just, I mean, what's the correlation there?
I still find that they're very closely correlated.
Of course, you have things that Saylor will say or do, offerings, things like that, that
can often get it to run countertrend to Bitcoin.
But for the most part, if you look at the daily charts going back a couple months, it's
been really mirroring the Bitcoin move all the way from where Bitcoin was basing off
that 70, 75K area up to all-time
highs and on this recent pullback.
It's looking like it's mirroring pretty closely for now.
So, you know, this tends to flip and change as trends tend to flip and change or if there's
company-specific news.
In this current environment over the last couple of months, I'd suggest that it's moving pretty close to hand-in-hand with Bitcoin right now.
Appreciate those thoughts.
And I wanted to give you some kudos on that call
that you were making about a month or a little bit more than that ago.
Hadn't had your updated thoughts.
Appreciate you joining Urkel and the great rundown there.
Sam Solid, how was your day in the market it's uh day in the market was pretty mellow today for me um and i'm long more than a few positions
here uh from the uh long-term portfolio seeing a bit of upside i have a. I have a decent sized position in AST Space Mobile, just pretty much holding that as a speculative position and seeing that news with Scotiabank basically giving quite a bit of an upgrade on AST Space Mobile after seeing Bezos, or actually, I don't know if it was Bezos exactly, but Blue Origin executives visiting the AST Space Mobile building,
it shows that they're strengthening their partnership.
I wouldn't say that they're going to have any type of acquisition or anything,
but Blue Origin does launch some satellites for AST Space Mobile.
So it might be pretty interesting to see that partnership strengthen a bit
and maybe possible getting some stake in the company.
We've seen Jeff Bezos, as far as his organization, take some stake in Tloka, which is a subsidiary of Nebius Group.
So, you know, maybe that might happen. I'm not banking for it.
But I did think that as far as technical wise, ASD Space Mobile did have quite of a pullback a few weeks ago.
And seeing that pretty much all the space companies across the board are on quite a run here, I was anticipating a little bit of a catch up.
So I did get a little tactical and sell some credit spreads in that, which are pretty much out of the money at this point.
I might just let it expire worthless. If anything, I might just add to my position if those expire in the money
or whatever, but they're pretty deep in profit. So just holding onto those. I said earlier on the
Wolf trading spaces that I put on a swing Marvell position, mostly because they got the AI investor
day coming up next week,
and they received quite a few upgrades this morning. Thank you for the notes, Doc, talk
on that one. They had a presentation yesterday involved in part of a conference, so did more
than a few other companies. I believe Snowflake was one of them as well, and the reason why they
both got massive upgrades this morning. Snowflake completely faded that move, but Marvell is holding
until those gains up about 7% today, so's pretty nice i had i actually trimmed half of my long-term position
with marvel after the earnings and um you know what i added it back so call me paper hand sam
i don't really care it's my portfolio i can do with my money whatever i want but those calls
are doing pretty well at this point too and i only put them on like a few years ago so i'm going to
hold on to those ones uh see how that one goes um pretty much uh got some uh got some edge from paper paper gains uh
post some pretty good charts in that one fundamental wise i know this company pretty
good so if we see an ai investor day next week uh which a lot of analysts are anticipating for that
they still are part of amazon's uh terranium three and four designs uh
that's definitely gonna probably bring the stock back up to the 90 hundred dollar range so uh you
know hopefully uh holding out for that one if not you know i'll make a decision then uh but as far
as the short-term position goes i'm definitely gonna be riding these maybe take some runners
off and just ride these into the event. We'll see what happens.
It'll really be determined by the broad market action.
But also, Broadcom reports today.
Expectations are pretty high for Broadcom, but it's been in a considerable one, basically
doubled since the lows in April.
So it's going to be interesting to see what happens.
And one thing people forget is that Broadcom is not directly competing with NVIDIA on the
entire company scale.
Yes, they are creating ASICs, which are basically specialized GPUs for specific AI workloads,
but a lot of their revenue really comes from networking, networking equipment, network cards,
and so on. And also they acquired VMware more than a couple of years ago, and they're already
getting that revenue there,
which is inorganic, but it does kind of diversify the revenue stream.
And seeing that we're basically heading toward the second stage of AI,
where software is able to find some AI monetization with AI,
Broadcom is definitely going to get some appreciation from that one
and also for the networking sector.
Sorry.
What's the name of that company?
I keep forgetting the name of the company.
It's such a big deal,
but the AI LLM in China,
I can't believe I can't even remember it,
but deep seek.
Deep seek.
There you go.
I don't know.
I was thinking data seek anyways on the back of that.
We saw a lot of bidding up with a lot of networking and async chip companies.
So there's also Estera Labs, which is almost near 100 bucks again, basically double from
the upper lows.
And of course, there was Marvell as well, quite a bit of a laggard, but they're participating
in that hype as well.
And AVGO, definitely a big beneficiary of it.
They're basically the leader when it comes to the networking segment for AI Data Center.
So all lies in that one.
And as long as the earnings are pretty much in line or it beats expectations,
then the party goes on per se.
But I don't think this is an end-all be-all like NVIDIA,
but definitely the semiconductors are going to catch a bit
if this thing does move up as far as an entire ETF goes.
So that's going to bring pretty much all those up.
But I'm expecting a bit of sympathy played from Marvell,
depending on those results.
So that'll really determine how Marvell is going to move tomorrow, most likely.
And we'll see.
So pretty busy afternoon, in my opinion, with Broadcom.
Yeah, Broadcom tomorrow.
Lululemon was mentioned, that's tomorrow.
Today, MongoDB. Maybe we'll talk about that here in a minute uh sam quick question uh i actually own some of
that asts um what was the catalyst today i mean i'm just bullish space that's why i got some
scotia bank note scotia bank note okay what can we yeah i posted it this morning in free market.
I'll pin it at the top for ASDS and Bulls that want to read it.
But, yes, Gosher Banks already had a pretty high price target on it,
but they just reiterated their price target this morning after – I think Sam already alluded to this,
but they raised their price target after they found out about the meeting
that Bezos had with ASDS's CEO.
And, yeah.
Hold on, let me find it. Did I post it? Maybe I didn't post it.
You didn't pin it, but you did post it.
You did post it. That's why I didn't cover it. I thought you wanted to cover it.
I was going to touch on it when I got into it.
I don't know.
Why don't I see it on my feed?
Because you have a lot of breaking news in your feed, man.
Oh, yeah.
Here it is.
Okay.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Wow.
I got a lot of engagement this morning.
400 likes.
Okay.
Well, I guess a lot of people read it.
But, yeah, they reiterated their price target.
I pinned the note at the top.
Basically, their analyst is speculating that Bezos is going to invest in the company.
So, you know, maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong.
But yeah, the bid today was definitely because of that.
I mean, you know, again, I always am the sell side defender here.
But you'll find that a lot of times, like people who especially don't look at it, like
they wonder why stocks up like 10% or 12% on a random day.
It's usually because there was sell side commentary.
If there's not other news,
it's usually like the catalyst that,
you know,
makes these stocks move,
which is why I advocate so strongly for the style of trading that I do,
which is catalyst trading,
where you find nice charts that have strong catalysts like this.
And then you hit them, you know, and you have two,
you have two points of conviction there, right? You have two points of confidence, I should say.
You have, you know, a strong chart, a good technical setup, and then you have a strong
fundamental opinion or a good analysis or a good catalyst to go with it. Those plays tend to work
really well. I mean, that's usually where I find my winning stocks.
But yesterday I did go over my portfolio pretty extensively on these spaces.
I think I went over like 12 of my positions yesterday, one by one.
If you weren't here, you can go listen to the recording from yesterday,
touching on some of them.
But it was good timing because we had some real rippers today in the
port. I do have a small position in ASTS as well. It's like a lotto options position. So that was
nice to see that one up. But the big winner for me today, which I have real size in was Centris
Energy. I've traded and owned the stock for a long time. I've talked about it on these spaces
over the last week or so. You know, a lot of people, I think,
missed the idea that, you know,
this is the only publicly traded
uranium enrichment play in the world,
not just on U.S. markets.
And it's a $2.5 billion market cap.
You know, people are wondering
why this thing held up better
than the SMR plays,
which we also traded SMR
on this nuclear run in the last two weeks.
We sold it last week, actually, which was good timing because those stocks have been weak this week so far,
even though other nuclear names, especially the nuclear fuel related names like LEU,
there are some smaller ones like LTBR, Lightbridge, which some people look at.
But as far as commercially viable uranium enrichers, Centris Energy is the only one.
And B of A had a note on it this morning. We entered it at 96 on May 22nd. So I'm up like
43 odd percent on shares as of the close today. Actually popped a little bit into the close,
maybe 44 percent. But B of A had a nice note on it this morning saying exactly what I told you
guys on these spaces a week ago.
They're the only uranium enrichment play on the market.
They deserve a premium because of it.
B of A is assigning a 1.5 times net asset value to the company,
which is a premium compared to other players in the space.
But B of A makes the argument that they deserve it.
They also think their technical prowess when it comes to high assay,
low enrichment uranium, which I talked about on this space, what,
two weeks ago when Evan asked me what it was.
And I explained that to you guys, but we were talking about this stock.
You know, we were talking about this stock just a couple of weeks ago,
and now it's 40% higher.
So there's a lot of opportunities in this market, I think, that especially thematic
opportunities that continue to work very, very well.
And so, you know, nuclear is one of them, certainly.
Recently, the data center trade obviously has been another one.
You know, CoreWeave has gone on an absolutely parabolic run.
I don't own any CoreWeave, but I do have a large position in nebius sticker mbis
which i believe sam also touched on earlier um and we discussed on these spaces a while ago as well
i think there's a lot of upside with taloka which is their ai data business that jeff bezos led his
70 million round in uh i think we just wanted to just want to interject here because nebius did
actually have some news this morning. They released a note.
One of its other subsidiaries, Avride, which is not –
Yeah, they're launching robotaxis in Austin.
Yeah.
Yep.
There you go, man.
Caught a huge –
I was just about to bring that up.
Yeah.
There you go.
My bad.
My bad.
No, you're good.
You're good.
You're good.
You're good.
No, no, no.
I'm glad you jumped in with that because that's where I was going next.
Yeah, so Avride, which is their other subsidiary,
did announce this morning that they are planning to launch RoboTaxi in Austin as well. So, yeah, I just think there's a lot of optionality on that stock.
They have data center exposure.
They have both international and domestic data center exposure.
They have Toloka, which I think, again, there's tons of valuation upside there.
I think AVRide also has valuation upside. So it's a stock with a lot of optionality and a lot of hot
themes. It's going to be a core position for me. I mentioned that to our members when I
bought it. I'm not a top seller on this one. I'm a dip buyer. So yeah, it's working really
well. That stock was up big again today, up another 6%. We entered that one at 23 on, what was our entry here?
23 on the 6th of May.
So it's been about a month and shares are 67% higher from our entry already.
So pretty good for a month, Pretty good cushion for a month,
especially on a position that we plan to keep for the long term.
I did make a new ad today, speaking of the data center space,
along the lines of Nebius.
But I did add some cores today.
Core Scientific.
This stock is emerging above the 200-day moving average today,
which is sort of the look I like.
9 and 21 EMAs pinched underneath it.
Fits the thematic.
There's an announcement today from Ludnick that they want 50% of all compute to be in
the United States.
That's obviously an unrealistic goal, but it's ambitious.
And so, you know, I think there's probably a preference for U.S. data centers if that
centers if that theme is going to continue to stay sparked. So, you know, cores, pretty much
theme is going to continue to stay sparked.
all of their compute is domestically located across like 12 different data centers. So I think
it's an interesting dynamic. And for also the people that don't remember core, we've tried to
buy cores last year or the year before, I think it was. And so there's, you know, an implicit
sympathetic relationship there as well.
Mainly for me, though, just the technical setup on that one, you know, below the 200 day I'm out.
So very tight stop on it, popping above the 200 day today. We give it up next week. Cool. I'll cut that trade and be out of it.
So not taking a lot of risk there. Part of the reason for that is, is I have big cushions on my other data center related exposure.
Right. Like Nebius, I have a huge cushion on it, on the equity of the options.
So I have flexibility there. Maybe make some trims on the options, pull some of that profit into another exposure and sort of mitigate my risk that way.
So that was my thinking there. So I did open up about a three and a half percent position in cores today.
So pretty moderately sized but just
jumped into that one um our aerospace and defense basket was working beautifully today as well
kratos which is one of our top aerospace and defense names breaking through that 40 spot finally
and uh i'm in the 2027 leaps on this one i'm also in shares I have some 40 call leaps for January, 2027 that are already up 160-ish percent.
So those are already up massive
and they expire in 2027.
So there's so much time on the clock
for me to have flexibility with those
if I want to trim them into some strengths,
pick up some additional leaps at different strikes.
I have a ton of flexibility with that Kratos position now
as it breaks to new highs.
But look, part of the reason I'm not a massive seller
on any of these core names that I'm bringing up
is because the positions are not only working well,
but they are frankly getting better and better news.
You know, I think Nebius continues to get really good news.
I think Centris Energy continues to get really good news.
I think Kratos continues to get really good news.
You know, I brought up another recent ad to my aerospace and defense basket about four or five days ago on these spaces, which was Mercury Systems. No, not even
four or five days ago. That was June 2nd, so two days ago. But Mercury Systems quietly up about
5%. We had picked it up at 49, 40 earlier this week, trading like 52 into the close.
That's not a big move, but for an aerospace and defense name, it's a nice move. You know,
you're not going to get, I'm not going to get the types of moves I get on names like
Centris Energy and Nebius across the whole portfolio. You know, not all of my positions
are going to be equally high beta, but I want to have exposure to the themes that I think are
winning theme. And sometimes they're lower beta stocks. That's okay with me, as long as I have exposure to the thematic
that I want to have exposure to. And so, you know, me wanting to be in mid cap aerospace and defense,
that means that that fits into my basket. You know, Mercury's trading a 3 billion market cap,
frankly speaking, I think with the way the rest of the mid-cap defense industry is trading, I think you put a little bit of juice into the stock.
You up the premium.
Maybe you raise the multiple slightly.
I think you can get pretty comfortably to a $5 billion valuation for Mercury.
And not to mention, people don't know about stocks like Mercury Systems because they're not sexy stocks.
about stocks like Mercury Systems because they're not sexy stocks, but Mercury Systems makes pretty
much everything you can imagine in cutting edge defense from avionics to radar sensor systems to
missile precision guided missile systems. Like all of these sexy big defense programs you see
on the front end underneath the wrapper are really, really productive picks and shovels companies that have room for explosive growth. Because the best upside,
in my view, in aerospace and defense is always in the mid-cap names. And the reason for that is,
is because there's a handful of mid-cap names on the market, many of which are names that I own,
that have indispensable technologies. In other words, they do not have peer technologies at the
major legacy defense firms and as a consequence of that they often get dragged into major contracts
as what's listed as subcontractors okay another great example of this is huntington ingalls which
is another name i own shipbuilder recently had a golden cross on the daily, by the way. I think it's a beautiful technical setup. Again, not as explosive as
the higher beta names I bring up, but I do think the technical setup is gorgeous on HII, Huntington
Ingalls. But anyway, that name is a great example of this, okay? They are a shipbuilding company
that is required to build almost every major commercial and military vessel in the United States.
And so when companies like General Dynamics, for example, sign a 12 or 13 or 14 or 15 billion dollar contract to make a couple of new ships, they have to subcontract out to Huntington Ingalls.
They have to.
Like if you go to look through the last 15, you can go.
These are all publicly available.
Evan actually tweets out a lot of military contracts.
He's a good person to follow if you want to follow those.
But you can go and see the public.
Defense.
Defense.gov goes out every day at 5 p.m. Eastern.
There you go.
Defense.gov goes out every day at 5 p.m. Eastern.
Go check that.
And you can see all of the shipbuilding awards that have gone to General Dynamics the last 20.
Go look at the subcontracting list.
This is how I find these stocks.
Now, I don't like – I mean, you can go to your favorite LLM and help you to condense the information. But there are really simple things you can do with publicly available information to find out which companies are important to the things that you think are
going to matter. Right. Like if you're bullish on shipbuilding, you want to find out, OK,
which company is really going to benefit from a higher volume of shipbuilding? OK, well,
you look at some of the bigger market caps and you're like, how much is going to 250 billion
dollar legacy defense juggernauts stock really
going to move? The answer is not much. But these smaller players that are $2 billion, $3 billion,
$4 billion, $5 billion, $6 billion market caps, they can get one subcontract worth $2 billion
and the stock can move 20% off of that or 30% off of that. That's why these are better investments
and better trades, in my opinion. But you'll have the legacy guys hammer me for saying that. But if Monitiv was
here, he'd kill me for saying that because Monitiv loves the legacy defense companies. But
I just think they're not only poor trades, but just frankly, poor investments. They just don't
give great returns. And so I'm focused on the specialized technologies that are, again, not small caps, right?
They're not two, $300 million defense companies.
They're two, three, four, $5 billion defense companies that I think should be worth much
more, you know, and Kratos is another example of that, right?
Six billion market cap.
I think it should be more like 10.
You know, Kratos is a company with indispensable mission launch technologies.
They have indispensable drone and UAV technologies. And so, you know, these stocks, in my opinion, deserve a premium. We
were talking yesterday about the idea that mid-cap aerospace and defense is trading at its
largest valuation premium to large cap aerospace and defense ever. And some people view that as sort of a correction to the mean opportunity.
I view it the opposite way. I view it as signal. I view it as that relationship,
it has stretched for a reason, which is that a lot of these dollars are going to go to more
specialized efforts. And when you look at the specialized technologies and military,
next gen military technologies, they are largely concentrated, at least the best of them among smaller companies.
So at the very least, I think they make great acquisition candidates.
So that basket did really well today as well.
So, yeah, the aerospace and defense basket, the nuclear basket, the data center baskets working very, very well in this market. And
those are the three areas of concentration in my portfolio currently. So until the music stops,
you know, my, my focus on those thematics probably won't change. Embraer jets, you know,
that one's been quiet for us recently. That one also had a nice move today was up 5% on a nice
report from HSBC reminding everyone of something that frankly should be obvious.
But HSBC reminding everyone, hey, Embraer has a $27.4 billion backlog and it's a sub $9 billion market cap.
You know, proposing to break a duopoly of epic proportions when it comes to Airbus and Boeing, right?
So is there a valuation premium that should be there?
I think so.
That's why I own the stock.
So a lot of the names I own, I own on the basis that I think, A, their multiples should
expand.
B, they're in extremely hot thematics.
And not just hot thematics from the sense of hype, but hot thematics from the sense of real capital dollars being allocated. And I think that's an important distinction to make,
too, when you're a trader or an investor and you're trying to identify themes.
A good example of this is like today, I saw the Greenland headline come out, right? For those
that didn't see it, the Trump administration is considering shifting the purview of Greenland
from U.S. European command to U.S of Greenland from U.S. European
Command to U.S. Northern Command, U.S. Northern Command defending the homeland.
And people saw that, OK, you know what?
This is going to be really good for the Greenland related critical minerals plays.
If you go look at the critical mineral stocks, my favorites being PPTA and USAR, you look
how amazingly they've performed.
Then you look at the Greenland mineral stocks.
They haven't moved anywhere.
Why?
Because the market's not buying the idea that we're going to take Greenland.
Right.
And even if the market was buying the idea that we're going to take Greenland, the economic
impact for those plays is indiscernible.
On the other hand, you know that real investment dollars are going into nuclear energy, which
is why the move in those stocks on a two
year basis has been so explosive. Keep in mind, this is the start of the nuclear trade, right?
This nuclear trade started last year. If you go back to pre-Constellation Energy deal with
Microsoft last year, that's where the nuclear trade started, okay? Was the day Constellation
Energy and Microsoft announced that mega 10-year deal.
If you go back and look at the prices of all of these stocks, the SMR stocks, the nuclear fuel stocks, everyone, the power producers,
go back and look at their prices pre-CEG deal last year, they were like 2%, 3%, 400% lower than where they are today.
were like two, three, 400% lower than where they are today. There was a big pause in that trade
about post deep seek, you know, where all the data center and AI related names got hit, right? And
then there's a further drawdown during the tariff sell off. But the rebound for those names has been
glorious. And to me, that shows you that the market is giving the nuclear thematic real credit,
you know, and believes that there's going to be real capital
allocation here. So I think that's a difference. And I also think as these themes mature over the
course of weeks and months in the markets and hundreds of millions of shares get cycled through
these stocks, I also think the discernment improves over time, right? Because mentioning
that we sold SMR last week.
I didn't just sell it because we were up 100% on shares in a week.
I also sold it because they don't make any money, right?
It's a zero revenue company that's now 10 plus billion dollar market cap.
To me, that felt like, okay, probably a good time to take profits, you know?
And you look at the rest of that group, the ones that performed today were not the pre-revenue companies.
The ones that performed today were the ones...
MongoDB came out, by the way.
Sorry, what did you say?
That's why I have my hand up.
Yeah, MongoDB is up 12% right now.
It came out.
The double beat, big beat, $1 versus 0.66.
Total revenue up 22% year over year out of 2,600 customers.
You said Atlas revenue up 26% year over year, 72% of total Q1 revenue.
Shout out Sam when Snowflake – shout out you, Emp, and Sam when Snowflake had their earnings on the 22nd of May.
Emp, you asked me what I thought would I buy it.
And I'm like, I don't own it.
So Sam's qualified to that.
I asked Sam on the space, who's the company that's their rival that's in the dumps?
And he tipped off to Mongo.
And then a week ago, i said i took a position
here we are shout out to both of you so just to preface with the reason why mongo db was
very suppressed valuations and to be honest i took a loss in this position um as a trade which is okay
because i rotated those into snowflakes snowflake ran up so i'm okay
with that uh but nevertheless the reason why mongo db has been very suppressed lately is because it's
all-star product mongo db atlas is a managed cloud solution and that is foretelling of their future
growth mongo db after an earnings a couple quarters ago went from 350 to $400. And then
it completely flipped after the CEO said in the conference call that they're expecting deceleration
in Atlas DB due to some macro concern, whatever it is, budget tidying, whatever the story was.
And the market dumped it the next day after being up about, what was it like 15% it was actually down 15% next day and has
just been trending down relentlessly MongoDB has traded before today at its cheapest historical
valuations in the last four years so think about what happened to Tesla last year when it was in
the 130s you just needed some catalyst to bring it back up. You had terrible sentiment, terrible
price action and positioning. You have good news on the back of that. Wolf said MongoDB ad lists
grew 24%. They were guiding for the single, sorry, low team double digits. That is an outlandish
beat and surprise to wall street. And they will bid this thing up. So as long as the conference
call is good, it'll probably hold onto these gains and probably continue making its way up doing the catch-up
trade for software companies and data this is not a direct competitor to snowflake or databricks
this is more than no sql platform uh so it it is basically built with applications that use
bongo db as their database uh more of documents and so on. But I don't want to get into the logistics behind all that,
but this is not a direct competitor,
but there is a sympathy play with Snowflake from this
because you could see Snowflake is up about 1% after hours
and to sympathy play to a lot of data stocks as well.
That's how Wall Street pairs these baskets up together.
So just wanted to clarify that one
in case anyone wanted to know.
Yeah, so shout out to clarify that one in case anyone wanted to know yeah so shout out to
for the clarification that's 20 give or take in eight trading sessions so like this is a perfect
example of those suppressed value suppressed stocks beaten up stocks that just don't need much
and if they surprise you they'll really take off the derivative i'm gonna give outside of the
out of side of snowflake uh also beaten up name datadog i mentioned it on space with amp a couple
days ago i own that one as well but i i bought it recently in the last couple days so hopefully
get some more follow through from both of them um i'm gonna trim some here uh shortly before the conference
call on mongo just because it's up like 22 now but shout out to all let's try that to you guys
for tipping it off yeah so a little a little bit of knowledge for datadog uh that is basically a
leader in its application monitoring and infrastructure monitoring space, like hands down leader.
Like there's Dynatrace as well, but Datadog is the most innovative platform across multiple research firms.
Datadog is the hands down leader.
And they had quite a pullback from their all time highs from about 160 something bucks all the way down to sub.
I think it was like sub 90 bucks during April.
And coming back from those lows, you know, the leaders will continue to lead.
That's the only thing I say, if you're, if you're a long secular trend, you, you are better off for a long-term positioning, not short term, long-term positioning by the leaders.
Cause the market will re-rate them, price them back to their, their nominal valuation.
if the market's around like this.
If the market's around like this.
And I'm not saying that I forecasted MongoDB coming up,
but if you have the entire IGB basket,
which is a software ETF,
MongoDB is part of that ETF.
If that is coming back and MongoDB is a lagger
and the market stays bullish,
they will find a reason why they can bid up MongoDB as well.
And I mean, this is a phenomenal move after earnings.
I'm not going to lie.
The other thing is on moves like this,
the IV on these calls if
you take a position really gets crushed so like like on a relative basis so you compare it to
like historical really gets crushed for for datadog i'm talking simply like a trade breaking
out of a downtrend that downtrend where you talked about from december 24 till you now, if it were to break out, basically you have a linchpin at the 200 day,
give it like 123.50 just to be safe.
It's about 123 bucks period.
But any sort of upside beyond that 200 day
here in the next couple of days,
the thing could see 130 really quickly
just off of momentum.
And that's kind of, I just,
I'm saying this now because it's like real time.
These are the kinds,
like when I say I'm looking for
idiosyncratic beaten up names
that could reverse on the little,
the slightest bit.
These are the types of examples.
You see how quickly they can go.
You basically risk pennies to make dollars,
risk dollars to make multiples of dollars,
basically.
And that's the setup
I'm looking for right now.
Stock talk. You know what name I've been bag-holding
for a couple of years since COVID that's reported earnings?
That's moving higher here?
5-11.
Nah, Planet Labs, PL up 12%.
Whoa, whoa.
Mongo up 14% now.
This space name is hot. Yeah, we've talked about that. I don't know how many people actually care about Mongo. It's a good name. up 12%. Mongo up 14% now.
Yeah, we've talked about that. I don't know how many people care about Mongo.
Yeah, no one cares about Planet Labs.
But, yeah, interesting times.
I'm excited for the Broadcom earnings tomorrow, but...
Yeah.
It was funny, Stock Talk
was mentioning
C-O-R-Z earlier.
That was the one that we talked about earlier on the trading show a little bit.
That was one, I literally thought it was a pharmaceutical company for a long time until I was like, why does everybody keep talking about this name?
And I finally looked into it a little bit.
What name?
C-O-R-Z, Core Science or something.
Didn't you mention that earlier?
Oh, yeah, yeah.
I brought up Planet Labs.
Planet Labs.
PL was just for the years.
Just for the learnings.
Oh, yeah?
Evan, how's your mullein bags?
Is it pumped up today?
No, I never bought that one.
Well, the APS is zero cents, but okay, nice.
Hey, we don't talk about that revenue no I'm kidding let's talk talk you go ahead no go get I was gonna we could throw it back that way
did cut stock talk off
I cut him off a little bit I wanted to hear kind of the rest of his thoughts
around that and I felt
like he had another two or three minute
rant going so
I thought the mid cap defense conversation
was pretty interesting
you guys need to get him a music bed
while he like rants like that.
What does that mean?
I want to know if he even sleeps. Just like a little bit
of music in the background while he rants. Just like
a theme.
Like some dramatic music?
Suspense.
However you guys want to do it.
He needs a theme song that just kind of plays in the background.
Just add to the mood.
Yeah, audience, you guys can drop your ideas for what the theme song should be in the comments please yes license
free preferably uh stock talk do you sleep by the way because like i saw a tweet from you
which i don't know we've been over this we've actually had these conversations for this we've
been doing this for years now, actually.
I brought this up.
Go down the hill.
This guy apparently doesn't sleep,
and he's so committed to getting the information out.
He's not going to wait until it's prime time for you to be out.
He's going to tweet it.
It's 3 a.m. when no one cares,
which is actually kind of fake news.
I just think he's using AI.
I have tried to change that recently.
I have tried to tweet him a little more reasonable time recently,
like closer to 7 or 6.
I saw something at like midnight my time last night,
which is like, what, one your time.
And we'll see another thing at like 3.
I'm not a vampire, but I don't sleep much during the week now.
I used to do that, just catch up on the weekends.
Yeah, that's kind of what I do.
I mean, I don't know.
I love the game, you know?
I mean, I feel like you wake up in the middle of the night,
you see a headline, and you just tweet it out,
and, like, is that something, go back to sleep?
No, not even that.
I mean, mostly in the morning, I just, like, I don't know.
I enjoy reading research.
I enjoy, like, figuring out what stock could benefit.
Like, I just love the process of doing it.
I mean, obviously, it takes a lot of time to be good at it.
I don't fall into the basket of people that think it's, like, easy.
But, you know, I do think it's rewarding if you're good at it.
And I think it's, like, fun to learn about industries that you don't know about.
Like, I talked about this before, but, like, I was in medical school.
Like, I don't know. I didn't know the like i talked about this before but like i i was in medical school like i don't
know i didn't know the first thing about finance i didn't know anything about any industries really
i just read a bunch of stuff for the over the course of a decade and just trying to teach myself
and yeah i don't i mean yeah look would i like to get more sleep sure but it's not like i'm waking
up and doing something i hate like i get excited excited on Mondays when the market's about to open, you know?
Like, I dread weekends sometimes where I'm just like,
oh, my God, I wish the market was open.
So, I don't know.
What do you think recently, though?
It's definitely changed.
Like, honestly, these weeks have been so freaking long, honestly.
Not this one or two.
There was a period there with all this Trump stuff going on.
It was crazy.
Well, it's because the headlines come out, like, all hours right now, right?
Yeah, yeah. We're tuned in the entire time the last month and a half
yeah i mean volatility makes it obviously a little bit more interesting but i mean even
non-volatile markets i mean i find it interesting you know you don't need to have like
the sort of volatility we have right now is like headline volatility. But the reality is on a micro basis, there's always volatility, even in boring markets.
Like, you know, I would say the in between the 2017, 2018 volatility and there was like a brief period of calm before the storm, right before COVID, like end of 2018 going into 2019 where you could
sort of operate in a headline volatility free environment but those periods only last a couple
of months and then you know some other narrative appears um and you have to you have to manage it
but i mean we talk about the amount of the amount of flip-flop in this one has been crazy
intraday whipsaw, this is different.
At least this is moving.
Do you remember the debt ceiling stuff back two years ago, 23,
when we had a six-week period, we just went sideways?
Yeah, the debt ceiling stuff.
That tends to happen around debt ceiling conversations.
I mean, even Trump term one, for those that were trading back then,
was pretty headline volatile. It wasn't this headline then um was pretty volatile pretty headline volatile
it wasn't this headline volatile but it's pretty headline volatile so i don't know you live and
you learn like you go through these kind of markets you get experience like uh i was talking
to one of our members today in the discord and he was like oh like are you worried about friday
like with the trump g call like are you are you gonna short the market going into it like
you're gonna get insurance and i was just like i, I don't know. We'll see what happens
when it happens. And he's like, how are you so calm about these things? And I was like,
it's not even that I'm calm about it. I'm just like used to the volatility.
Like, it's out of your hands. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But I mean, there's like, you know,
there's people in the sell-off earlier this year that like sold all of their long term stocks, you know, because they got scared. And it's like donuts. Yeah, don't do that ever. By the way, whoever you are out there, never do that. But there's people that do that every time there's volatility, right? out of things and I get it because like
you're human and that's part of the game it's part of being human fear and greed I get that
but um once you get used to volatility and you've seen the markets go up 30 percent down 30 percent
seen individual stocks go down 70 80 percent come all the way back up you just realize like okay it's part of the game you know
if i buy something last week and the markets want to turn around next week i'll probably get stopped
out of that position part of the game like charge it to the game you know like i think i think of
those things as like the cost of doing business as a market participant as an active market
participant right granted i think being a passive market participants
an entirely different ballgame and frankly speaking I think it's what most people should do but if
you're like the crazy people in the on this panel and the crazy people in the audience they like to
actively manage your money then it is you know it is a game of psychology to is a game of like being able to stomach the drawdowns and you know not get over
euphoric on the massive rallies and not think you're a genius every time there's a face rip
face ripping bull market where everything's going up like having gravity about your attitude about
the markets is important thinking about your your losses or the times you might
take drawdowns of the cost of doing business. I think framing it that way is important.
If you want to play this game, you're not always going to win. Every stock you buy isn't going to
go up right away. Some of them will never go up. Some of them will take months to go up. Some of
them will take years to go up. Some trades you will take years to go up. You know, some trades you take might not work.
You might make 10 bad trades in a row.
You might make 10 good trades in a row.
Like, that's part, that's the game.
This is like the most thrilling, exciting game in the world.
And there's millions of players.
And there's tens of thousands of assets.
And you decide.
You decide how you want to play it.
But the most important things that you have to keep in mind are stay psychologically grounded.
I think once you get over that hump of going through market cycles, seeing a market crash, seeing the market recover, seeing stocks go up, seeing them come back down.
Once you see that over and over and over and over again, you eventually are just like not numb to it, not completely numb to it, but you eventually
you understand the process and you're like, okay, you know, I do have to take profits sometimes.
Okay. I do have to make trims sometimes. Okay. I can add shares back on pullback sometimes. Oh,
okay. I probably shouldn't have options exposure on, you know, short-term options exposure on when
the markets are weak or, you know, if the markets are chopping around, I should probably, you know, short term options exposure on when the markets are weak or, you know, if the markets are chopping around, I should probably, you know, rebalance my risk so that, you know, if I am in in leveraged instruments, I don't see too much burn.
and incorporate them into how you manage your money.
But as I always say, if you're having trouble outperforming the markets,
you shouldn't be actively managing your money at all.
And that's hard to hear for a lot of people.
And it's definitely not in my best interest to say that
because I literally sell a subscription to a trading service.
So it's not in my best interest to say that.
But I do think most people are better off
just buying the S&P 500 and going and enjoying your life. And I always say that, I've repeated
that before, but I really do believe that the vast majority of people are better off doing that
because actively managing your portfolio is hard. It requires a lot of focus, requires a lot of
discipline, requires the ability to constantly check the quarterly earnings of the businesses you own,
monitor the peer environment, monitor valuations, what premiums your stocks are trading at,
how quickly the multiples have expanded.
Like these are the things that it takes to be an excellent manager of your own capital.
If you don't have the time, the effort or the knowledge to do those things,
then you shouldn't bother.
If you do and you if you don't have the time and you've just
managed to miraculously outperform the markets because you have crazy instincts and you can do
it anyway without the time allocation, then great, keep doing it. Right. At the end of the day,
the proof is in the pudding. Like you're either outperforming the markets or you're not.
And if you're not, then you have to have a hard conversation with yourself. And if you are,
then great, keep doing whatever you're doing.
That's really as simple as it is.
Don't let anyone tell you whether you should be trading or not.
Tell yourself.
Pull up your brokerage.
Pull up your year-to-date performance.
Pull up your five-year performance.
Be like, would I have been better off putting my money in the S&P 500?
If the answer is yes, then you should.
It's that simple.
Coach Thibodeau pulled up his five-year performance and still got fired by the Knicks.
Yeah, that's a good one.
That is a good one.
That was well-tied.
He didn't outperform.
If you look at the last 25 years.
Performer expectations, right?
He outformed analyst expectations.
Yeah.
Making it to the final four, that has to be the definition of outperformance
right man i do that outperform bro joe jokic came within a within a game of being oklahoma
city without a fucking without a fucking coach will be your tips are wild over no i just i can
tell i think i think i think the average person who doesn't watch that team consistently uh would
say some of these things but if you watch team, they don't have rotations in order.
He doesn't know.
He overplays his guys in the regular season,
and then he plays his bench in the playoffs.
He does a lot of shit like that.
And for that kind of shit, it's just reckless abandonment.
You will, but they beat the undisputed favorites.
Oh, yeah, 100%.
That's more about management composition
than it was a Tibbs thing, and their best
player got hurt.
Is it crazy to say I don't think the Pacers would have beaten
the Celtics?
No, I don't think it's crazy.
Because they're built
to play that pace. They've got a lot of switchable
guys, a lot of wings.
But the Knicks were built in a way to match up against the celtics and then it just kind of worked and the guy got hurt and it worked
so kudos to them um i'm seeing i've seen a bloomberg article by the way uh for the planet
labs one says planet lab ceo says Europe the man beating outset of Ukraine war.
Wow.
Good for them.
Great enthusiasm there.
Is there, like, a thematic going on?
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. loving the space team right now. We've been talking about Starfighters for a while on here, so shout out to that too. And then all this other stuff. But
yeah, space team is hot right now.
The space team is hot. I mean, yeah. Let's make some money.
We'll see how that goes. Space and defense.
When's that new rocket IPO coming out?
Or that already got announced with
some SPAC, I forgot.
There's some new rocket IPO coming out through SPAC.
I think it was it.
I have one more tips comment for you.
Carl Anthony Towns
has gotten him fired
twice now.
That guy's a cancer.
There was a question on Sam.
Oh, Sam, can I ask you about Transmedics?
That was the name you watched, right?
I remember you and Shai talking about that a good little bit.
Yeah.
Any thoughts on TMDX?
It's performed well since that time we went, since it got hit.
I don't know where it is comparatively.
Oh, it's kind of...
Back to where it started to get hit.
I paper-handed this one.
I got out around the 80s.
And honestly,
after looking into,
it was too hard for me to understand.
It's just not my field.
I'm not going to try to be in it,
but shareholders did well.
Yeah.
Completely outperformed this year.
And honestly,
there is a whole community of X that was tracking the flights,
making spreadsheets and stuff.
And they were right.
Retail had this right, even though it was just getting downgraded left and right.
They had it right.
And that's just like another win for the retailers that, you know,
you don't have to have a multimillion dollar research firm in order to outperform the market.
You can do it in your own share, travel knowledge and so on.
And it's not an easy game.
I'm sure that took a lot of work for them, but it certainly paid off.
And I think,
I think you guys can agree the same as well.
You know,
if you put in the work,
you can do good,
but if you want to put in the work,
like StockDark said,
just buy a SP500 and just chill.
Yep.
It does take a lot of work.
It does take a lot of work.
And like you mentioned,
like even somebody like you,
who knows his stuff when it comes to analysis, right? Like you get shaken out of stuff too. And so do I, you mentioned, even somebody like you who knows his stuff when it comes to analysis, you get shaken out of stuff too.
And so do I.
And so does everyone.
Anyone that tells you they've never been shaken out of a stock or they've never sold a stock before it rebounded or they've never sold a stock and it proceeded to run more, they're lying to you.
Every trader has done all of those things. And i i hate when i use the term trader too because like what i mean
to say when i'm saying that is active manager if you're actively managing your portfolio you're
effectively a trader you might have a really really long time frame you might have a 20 year
time frame or whatever which is great great. 20-year time horizon.
Honestly, people who have long time horizons tend to do better anyway.
But at the end of the day, you're making decisions.
You're making decisions about maybe you want to buy a new stock.
Maybe you want to add to a stock.
Maybe you want to trade a stock and then invest in another one. Those are decisions that you have to make in
an informed way. You can't just buy something because you see it on Twitter and then sell
something because it starts going down. The reason trends stay intact, the reason people say don't
fight the trend, the reason trends generally stay intact is because price changes sentiment, right? When price is
trending down, it compounds the negative sentiment, right? Something bad happens to a stock.
Stock goes down 10%. A lot of people look at that and go, well, this is my opportunity. The
market overreacted. Very often what happens is that the stock goes down a lot
more first before it bottoms right because negative sentiment compounds once you have
you have the bad news then on top of the bad news you have a declining stock price
and the people who own the stock are seeing that declining stock price that informs people's
opinions whether you believe it or not you see this every day on Twitter with the popular specular stocks, right? Like Tesla, for example, which may be the most popular stock of the last
five years in terms of total volume of discussion, right? Every time that stock is up,
people come out and start talking about all the great things the company could do, right?
Humanoid robotics, FSC. Every time the stock is down, what happens? People come out of the
woodworks talking about like, is Elon on drugs? Is he even at Tesla? Is he working? Right? And
then all those concerns disappear when the stock rebounds and they all pop back up when the stock
goes down. What is that? That's price informing sentiment, right? And that happens time and time
and time and time again and across multiple stocks. And so once you know a company really well,
this is the point of doing the research in the first place. You are able to take advantage of
unwarranted volatility. You're able to take advantage when a stock goes down that you don't
think should be going down, right? Like, for example, when Talon Energy was getting sold as
a position I own, I was like, okay, I'm gonna be a dip buyer on that. This is unjustifiably getting sold, you know, or when Kratos Energy was getting sold, right? I was
like, this is under, sorry, not Kratos Energy, Kratos, the defense company, when they were
getting sold, I was like, this is unjustifiably getting sold. So I bought the dip, right?
I'm not going to do that for every position, because I don't have high conviction on every
stock I own. Some stocks I own just as trades. But the
stocks where you've done the work, you feel confident in the valuation, you feel confident
in the story, you feel confident in the theme, you feel confident in the chart. Those are where
you know, okay, you know what, even if the price does go down, I'm not going to let that change
my sentiment. I'm not going to become a seller of a stock that I was a buyer just because the price went down because price
will go down on the very best stocks you know go find any stock you want that's up 300% in the past
two years there's lots of them okay you can find a space stock a quantum stock a nuclear stock any
of these stocks they're all up three four hundred%, not even in the past two years, in the past like 12, 13 months. Okay. Go look at those stocks and just look at the charts.
And this is for new traders, like zoom out and look at the charts of a stock like that,
that's gone up that much in a period. And what you'll see is there were a lot of times when it
was red, right? But most of those pullbacks were orderly pullbacks into some sort of level,
But most of those pullbacks were orderly pullbacks into some sort of level, either a key price level historically or a moving average or a fib level or a Bollinger bad somewhere.
Price stopped somewhere in most of those pullbacks in an orderly fashion, shook out the chasers and allowed price to continue higher.
This is it's not like this isn't a novel idea.
This is universally true with every parabolic stock ever.
None of them go up 365 days in a row. None of them, not a single one. And so, look, day trading
is cool. Scalping is cool. I know there's a lot of day traders out there. I'm personally not in
that camp. I'm a positional swing trader and investor, but I've done a lot of day trading
over the course of my career. I've done some swing trading. I've done some intra-week trades.
I've done some intra-month trades. I've done five-year trades. I've done all sorts of time
horizons for trades. What I can tell you is I have unequivocally, unequivocally made way more money
in dollar terms from the stocks that I held through volatility
for longer periods of time. Unequivocally, it's not even close, right? I've made good money trading
stocks short term. I'm not knocking the fact that that has helped my portfolio performance.
That certainly has helped boost my performance. But if you look at the absolute amount of dollars I've made on stocks that I've held for six plus months versus stocks that I've held for six plus weeks, the difference between those categories is enormous. And that's because real compounded gains come from high conviction positions that you hold through volatility.
That's where you make money.
That's where you make real money.
Life-changing money.
If you find a trade that you're going to take at a whim that you think could go up 20%, are you going to put your net worth into it?
Probably not.
There's some people out there that do that.
But most reasonable people would probably not. Okay. There's some people out there that do that, but most reasonable people would
probably not do that. Okay. They're going to put some amount of money that they feel like, okay,
you know what, if it goes down 20%, I'll be okay too. Right. And sure. If they win, nice. They got
20% on whatever sort of nominal position they took. On the other hand, you do your research,
you build conviction and you go in with real size on a stock that you understand that hits all of the confluence factors, and you hold that stock for six, seven months, and you hold it through the volatility.
That's where you make real money, where you're like, oh, wow.
Now, that's what it'll click to you of not only how to trade, but how to invest, too.
There's no easy, there's no free lunch.
You're not just going to sit in a stock and it's going to go up every day.
And, you know, for the rest of your life, it's going to be green every single day.
It's never going to happen.
So the last, like, I think the secondary most important thing is not just if you outperform, you have to account for outperformance post-tax.
Because if you just sit in an index and you just have your money in there and it just kind of grows over time, you're not paying taxes on short-term capital gains on, you know, those types of trades. You're not paying fees to your broker. You're not doing any on short-term capital gains on those types of trades.
You're not paying fees to your broker.
You're not doing any of that shit.
Absolutely.
So I think you have to do that.
And then the one that people don't normally do, everybody should try it, I think.
I don't think anybody should try it.
Everybody should try it.
But you also have to calculate the value that you put on your own time.
So I don't know what people do for a living or how they get paid or whatever.
I think over the course of a few years, it's like starting any business, right?
You start a business, give yourself some runway to give it an opportunity for you to try it.
You're going to have some lean years.
You're going to have some good years.
But at some point, if you want to open a restaurant, for example, if like after four
years, people aren't coming to your restaurant and you gave up your, you know, $300,000 job or
$100,000 job or whatever it is, you have to now start valuing that time with the same weight that
you would value the other variables. And I think that's the thing. That's the, that's the only
thing, because I've heard you have this conversation a couple times.
I think that's the only variable that I'd add. Because if you're giving up an annualized return of, let's say, $100,000 working at a company plus 401k match plus benefits plus all that, you're giving that up to do this full time.
And you're not earning even the baseline post tax the baseline post-tax, it's probably
better to reevaluate. Yeah. And, you know, everyone's obviously tax considerations are
different. So talk to a financial advisor about that. I don't want to give anyone any specific
sort of tax advice. But an important thing to keep in mind too, though, is the mantra that I'm advocating for is not for stocks that are moving against you.
You know, because I see a lot of people misinterpret this idea of like holding through volatility as a justification to hold losers.
It actually fundamentally works the opposite way if you do that, because you are holding a downtrending stock.
Works the opposite way if you do that, because you are holding a downtrending stock.
Right.
So an example of this is if you buy a stock last week, OK, like, OK, let's use Centris Energy as an example, because that's been a big winner for me recently.
OK, so on May 22nd, I bought that stock.
Right.
Bought it at 96.
The stock immediately proceeded to gap up over the next few days.
Now I have a cushion to operate from that position with. If it is volatile, right,
goes down five or 6%, I'm still very green on the position. And so psychologically,
I can hold that stock more easily and not be shaken out of it as easily. On the contrary,
let's say I had opened that stock at 96 on the 22nd and it proceeded to go down in the two or three sessions after.
OK, and let's say it went from 96 to 85.
Now I'm underwater on the position, right?
At that juncture, holding through the volatility is not the same risk reward as holding a position in which you are up.
Because the position in which you are up because the position in which
you are up, you can then base your risk off of levels, right? You can say, okay, if the stock
comes back down on me, then the trade has been invalidated or, you know, I'm going to get out of
the trade and not take any losses, right? But on the contrary, if the stock continues to the upside,
you can stay involved with the trade, right? You can use your
nine EMA or your 21 EMA as a stop. I mean, I'm not going to tell people what moving averages or
technical indicators to use. Use whatever you want to use, right? For me personally, on momentum
trades, I usually use the 21 EMA as a stop. But anyway, you can follow the stock up those lines.
You know, if you look at some of the best performing names, go back and mention some of those categories, quantum, space stocks, you go look at these stocks over the last few years,
what you'll find is a lot of them rode a single trend line all the way up. Right? So if you had
used something like the 50 day as your stop, you would have been able to stay in the trade the
entire time just by drawing a line in the sand,
just by making that simple decision to say, you know what, I'm going to use this trend line as my stop. And if it breaks a trend line, I'm out of the trade. Some of those trades stayed in trend
for eight months consecutively, right? Some of those stocks went from 20 bucks to 400 bucks.
Like that could be a life-changing trade for you if you learn how to 400 bucks. Like that's going to be a life changing trade for you if you learn how to
swing trade. But most people, again, who are swing trading are just buying a stock. They hear about
the thing. The stock's sexy. They buy it at 30. They hope it goes to 60. They have no plan. They
don't know where the moving averages are. They don't even know how to read a chart. They're just
in the trade and then they just close their eyes and hope it goes up 100 percent. You're not going
to find any consistency doing that in the long term at all.
You will not be consistently profitable doing that.
It's a nonsense way of trading.
You have to know what you're trading.
You have to have a semblance, a basic understanding of technical analysis.
There's a reason every shop on the street has a TA division.
Knowing how to read a chart is important.
You don't have to do astrology.
You don't have to predict things or put a million indicators on the chart. Just learn how to read
a basic chart. Learn how to read price and volume. Step one. Step two, do research on the stocks you
buy. Step three, try to time as best as possible. That's the hardest part in markets. For me,
the way I do it is try to time with catalysts. So I try to time my buys with catalysts. Other people try to do it in different ways. Other
people look for technical setups. Some people look for fundamental value they think is a good timing,
whatever. There's a million different ways to quote unquote time your buy. And from there,
you operate in a position of either strength or weakness. If the stock is weak, it is showing you that, you know, that's not the right time for the trade.
If the stock is strong, you stay in the trade.
You know, it's not rocket science, but it does require discipline and it does require focus and intention and the ability to, like, go through information.
It requires intellectual honesty, too.
Yeah, exactly.
You can't lie to yourself.
You get when you're wrong.
That's actually a big point.
Because sometimes, you know, I've been doing this probably longer than anyone that's on the panel currently.
I'm not longer than Frank.
I see him down there.
I don't know if he's on the panel or not.
But sometimes all that shit that you do, you know, you're just fucking wrong. Excuse my that you do you know you're just fucking wrong
excuse my language guys but you're just fucking wrong and then or your your thesis on the data
might be correct but what you think it's going to do is wrong and so you have to really it's
that's to me that's the part, just being intellectually honest with yourself about what it is that you expected, what it is that's actually happening.
And the last part I'd add to what you just said is the thing that I think most people aren't accustomed to doing is building a position.
So as you scale up, right? Like, you know,
I'll just give you some numbers. I think it was 2019. When was the Boeing crash?
Right? Whenever that was, I had 10,000 shares of Boeing the day that it crashed. I'll let you do
the math. You don't go, when you're trying to build a position like that, you don't go buy
10,000 shares at once. You have to do it over a period of time. And so you need the technical analysis to just at the
very least know when a stock is starting to base and when a stock is starting to form an upward
pattern that is under accumulation. So you can actually accumulate it. If you're trying to buy
crap and it's going lower and lower and lower it. If you're trying to buy crap,
and it's going lower and lower and lower and lower, you're just adding and adding, adding,
who knows where it stops. But if it's in an uptrend, or if it's got like, you know,
institutional buying or some something like that, or it's got, you know, business expansion,
growth expansion, it's under accumulation, you'll be rewarded for trying to do that stuff. And then take a look at like NVIDIA, for example. It took off for like a year and a
half, two years. Based took off again. Same kind of thing, caught everybody off sides. So it gave,
if you missed the first one and you were still like, oh, I don't think this theme is over,
missed the first one and you were still like oh i don't think this theme is over it gave you an
opportunity to like re-accumulate that position and i think that those two things are like are
the main thing the other thing with the accumulation part is if if your story if the story were to
change while you were still building your position you get to flip out of it you get to cut it you
get to take the loss.
And it's not nearly the same size loss that you would have taken had you just been like,
all right, I like the stock, I'm buying it. Right. And so I think the intellectual honesty thing and
just being, you know, on the right side of understanding what's happening within that
trend, within that market, that's like, to me, the biggest, the two biggest things in conjunction with what you said.
I'll add a little bit to that too here,
just kind of jump in on the conversation
because so much of this is the fundamental necessities
to try and succeed at trading.
Like the truth is trading, short-term trading
is very, very difficult.
And winning short-term trades is also difficult.
And where a lot of people fail in short-term trading
is even when they finally do catch winners,
they don't take profits or they don't capitalize on it.
And more often than not,
they will lose trades rather than win trades.
And generally speaking, when you compound that, you end up with a losing or declining account.
So to Stock Talk Weekly's point, it's better to just invest your money with a bank or institution
and go about your life. Short term trading is really difficult. One thing I've done that works really well for me is I actually have
two completely separate accounts. So I have one brokerage account for long-term investing
and one account for my short-term trading. And I keep the two completely separate because you can't
mix and match. Like for example, Robinhood, which I referred to earlier, I've got a position off
$30 and $40, but I picked up a swing this week off $67. If it were to break down from $67,
I'm out. That's just my trade plan for this week. If Robinhood were to drop from $67 on the long-term
side, I'd probably look to buy a significant pullback in my long-term
investing account. So you just can't trade the two the same. So one thing to add just to some
of the conversation is also having a trade system. You have to have some kind of system that's going
to keep you consistent. Like for me as a short-term trader, every single trade I enter, I know exactly
where I want to enter. Doesn't mean I always catch the optimal entry. But I know where I want to
enter. And if I miss it, I won't jump in, I won't chase it. Because as a short term trader, it's all
about risk reward. And if you're trying to catch an entry, and it's traveled up the channel, you
know, depending on strength and trend, but the higher it goes, the more it skews your risk reward short term.
And at the end of the day, if you're not getting favorable risk reward, you shouldn't take a trade.
Secondly, you have to have targets like you have to have targets so that you know where to take profits.
And I've been teaching people how to trade or, you know, at least helping
them in their journey for five, six years now. And the one thing people always tell me, it's so easy
to buy stocks when they're going down, when they're going up, pushing the buy button is the easiest
part of trading. The hard part is knowing when to sell. So for me, like my trading system, I have targets on a chart.
And every time I hit a target on a swing trade, I trim.
Even if my gut tells me not to, or even if I try to break from my system, it seems like every time I get away from my trading system, it ends up costing me.
So I just trim.
I follow my system.
So I have a system for trading stocks in uptrends during rallies. And I have a system for trading stocks in uptrends during rallies,
and I have a system for trading stocks in weakness. So for example, if I'm in a swing trade and it's
strong, rather than trimming, say 30, 40% of my position at my first target, if strength is,
there's broad strength in the markets, I'll trim 15, 20%, But I always trim as I hit my target. So that's one thing to know,
too. If you want to be a successful short term trader, swing trader, day trader,
you have to know when to push sell. And like the person before me spoke, sorry,
I couldn't tell who was speaking. It was Wolf. Wolf, okay. Scaling in and out. So he was talking about scaling in. You can also scale out of trades. And that's generally what, you know, traders that are calm, cool, collected, that always seem to be in control of their trades, generally are scaling in and out. They're not trying to catch bottoms and sell tops. That's, you know, doable, but long term, pretty much impossible. You talk to any good trader,
they're happy to catch a piece of the pie. It's not about maximizing every trade. At the end of
the year, when you look at your P&L, you're not going to remember, outside of one or two memorable
trades, whether you caught bottom or sold top. It's whether or not you outperformed the markets
to use Stock Talks terms. So I think, yeah, those two points,
just to add on to kind of the mountain of valuable information shared is have a trading system. Like
I've worked on a trading system for years. I failed. I blew up my first two accounts,
but I love trading. I love trading. I sat down, I figured my shit out. I figured out how to read
charts. And I just, you know, I'd read when my
family was sleeping because I just love it. And I think you have to love it to enjoy it and to
become successful at it. So learn how to read a chart like StockDunk was saying. You have to
have a trading plan. Like people will buy a green stock and not know where to sell. And, you know,
for me, my style is generally buying red on red days, but not just because a stock is red, because it's reached a key demand level in an uptrend on a pullback.
Like you have to have a trading system.
You have to take profits as a short term trader.
And if you're a long term investor, I highly suggest keeping that separate from short term investing, like completely different accounts, even if it's with the same brokerage.
Keep them separate because your time frames are different. Your plan should be
different. Your strategy should be different. And again, just have a trading system. And for
your long-term investments, obviously know the business that you're buying and whether or not
there's growth and value in holding that. So just to kind of chime in on the conversation there.
So an example I like to give people, he was talking about, right now he's talking about
short-term training or like trading in general, right? Think of it like this. Think of it,
you've never played basketball before or soccer or whatever.
I'm going to use basketball for example because for me it's easiest.
You've never played basketball before in your life.
You want to play basketball.
The first time that you play basketball, you're on the court with LeBron James,
Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, a bunch of random people that don't know how to play basketball like you.
Some people that are in college.
Some people are in high school. like men, women, whatever.
Like you just get paired up in games against these people.
That's basically what you're fucking doing here.
We're going up against institutions, retail, and in this case, we're going against, you
you know, those guys on steroids with like algorithms, for example.
know, those guys on steroids with like algorithms, for example.
So like you're really going up against a situation where the deck is really stacked against you.
And so at the very least, if you don't have a system in place of some kind, right,
then you're just going to kind of meander and probably get lost in the shuffle.
The second thing is, you know, I've been doing this for years,
I've been doing this publicly for about 12, 13 years now. Most people that I interact with
that talk about this stuff, their perspective is how much can I make, right? And the small nuanced difference between that logic and the logic for most people that do this thing professionally is what am I risking?
If you flip that, right, you just flip that logic from how much can I make if I put this much money in to how much can I lose if I put this much money in?
You just start thinking of it from that perspective. A lot of these second order,
third order, fourth order problems that come with not knowing when to sell or not knowing
when to get in, a lot of those things will over time uh solve themselves and like urkel was just saying
that some sometimes people have trades and they'll be working they won't know when to stop and they'll
end up taking losses and then they'll take losses on trades and it'll compound etc 100 but more
importantly to me not more importantly also as important is the logic of I was up five grand.
Now I'm up $1,500.
If it just goes back to $2,500, I'll cut it or however people think of it.
The problem with thinking that way is you're not actually refining whatever system, whatever exit points, whatever strategy you're trying to work with.
So part of the why people who've been doing this for a while don't really have that FOMO
is there's 10,000 stocks in the market. There's 300 trading days a year. And there's multiple
years and those issues change. And so the number of opportunities are infinite over time.
So if I were to miss, like, you know, if I were to miss, you know, some trade today, I might miss it today, tomorrow, one week.
But I know in like a month, two months, whatever, I'm going to have another opportunity either with that stock or with another one.
another opportunity either with that stock or with another one. So if I don't respect my stop,
if I have a stop, for example, if I don't respect my stop, I might not have the money
when that opportunity shows up again. So that refinement of just having exit strategies,
good and bad, really kind of sets you up for preservation, which gives you the opportunity.
It also gives you the opportunity. It also gives
you the opportunity to just get better because you might sell something like you might sell a stock
that goes from 40 to 48 and you're like, my target's 45, right? And it gets all the way to
48. I sold everything at 45. Well, the next time you might sell a piece at 45, expect whatever,
or you might stop out at 45. And in reality, it came back down to 45 and then went to 50.
So over time, you will, you know, refine that process and you'll maximize whatever return
you can get. You're not going to maximize the whole full move, but your process will refine
for as best as you can get it over time.
So you really got to do that stuff.
And then the last point around that to me is if you've got house money,
like let's say you've got a trade, you've got house money.
So, I mean, Stock Talks about Robinhood from him last year.
I talk about HIMSS for me.
I bought HIMSS low single digits, okay?
I bought most of it in a long-term account
that I don't want to look at
because I thought it had a growth potential.
And then I bought some in a trading account, right?
If you're not scaling it,
like HIMSS in a month went from 70 bucks to $25 this year.
So if I'm not scaling it, right?
And I've got like my full position,
I'm like to the moon, whatever.
Odds are, if it's falling like that,
I'm gonna get shook out.
And I'm probably going to get shook out close to the lows
just because I've like the gut-wrenching feeling of it
would capitulate me.
And that's what capitulation is.
So practicing this sort of stuff lets you not even bother to look at it and then not
even like consider what happened.
At the very least, if you take off your core cost, so if you bought it for 10 bucks, it
goes to 20.
Cool.
Take half it off. Never have to,
at least they'll never have to worry about taking a loss, right? These are just some basic concepts
around it. And that's like that kind of like just those types of things will set you apart from
probably like 50% of people, right? Because a lot of people still, like the number of people I talk
to that are like, I was up and I took a loss loss like how and how you were up meaningfully you're up hundreds of percents and you took a loss
like how how is that possible and it's honestly it's just thinking how much more can i get right
it's not thinking how much can i preserve and now now i'm turning now i need a music bed by the way
because i'm turning into stock talk rambling. So I'll cut it.
I guess somebody on CNBC was listening to our space because they're talking about Nebius now.
Sam, they're on to it.
Oh, boy.
They're all over you.
What happened?
What?
No, they're talking about Nebius on CNBC right now.
They have a guy on there saying it's a better investment than CoreWeave.
It's jumping after hours.
CoreWeave sucks crazy.
Dude, I was literally about to jump onto the MongoDB call.
Let me take a look at this.
Let's go. Let's go.
Oh, I see Gav will join us.
Hey, what's up, Gav?
What's going on?
Hey, doing pretty good.
Watching this market right here.
A little bit of a pullback at the moment happening on crypto that I was watching,
just kind of as we went into the latter portion of the day.
But pretty interesting day in the market.
Always nice to look at those all-time high posts that come out from evan and just continue to see a lot of the stocks that we're watching just setting new all-time highs
today portfolio killing it which one your portfolio the blossom one and the uh what's the other one
you have um oh yeah the the blossom one and the uh Oh, yeah, the Blossom one and the Crypto Bull.
Yeah, the Crypto Bull.
Yeah, that Blossom portfolio has just been running.
That's up like 80% in the past year,
and the Crypto Bull one's doing pretty nice this year.
But yeah, Netflix now up like 38.5% this year.
So shout out to those that caught that.
I saw that at the top of your list, Evan.
It was one of the things that I was continuing to watch.
And then Pound to Your Hood, CrowdStrike, all near the top of my list. CrowdStrike,
obviously, with the pullback from yesterday. And then Tesla also, they just had a sharp drop
right at the open today. If you were watching right up from 345 all the way down to 328.
So a bit of a sell-off there. I'm pretty intrigued. We talked a lot of Tesla today,
obviously, with RoboTaxi and some other stuff that is coming up.
Em, could you invite up Adam Paddy, as well as the VistaShares account if you see it
come in?
Yeah, keep an eye out for it.
I just did another DM invite over to Adam to make sure we get him up here.
Yeah, going to have a chat here and I'll let him get up here before we really dive into
But I think what they're doing is really unique.
And we've had a couple other conversations with them in the past and especially in a market like this which is getting pretty volatile with
growth stocks i think it's good timing for it um i i appreciate also that conversation you guys
were having when i was popping back you know just came in off the top good stuff there wolfie evan
is there anything uh news wise or anything else that you wanted to touch on before we roll into
and talk a little about some of of these leverage pieces okay sweet awesome
well then i was pretty excited for this i did a live stream for those that saw it yesterday it
went to my page in evan's page and i was talking with adam patty who's up here he's the ceo
over at vista shares and they dropped a new etf today and i thought it was a perfect
uh one to talk about on our spaces it uh i think would really resonate with our crowd, basically, is what I'm getting at here.
And I've never seen anything like this.
I've seen a lot of ETFs, a lot of ETFs.
I've looked through tons of different strategies
and I was very curious to see this
and the criteria for the stocks making it into this ETF.
I've never seen anything using
this election criteria before.
And so I was like, hey, this is a good time
to go hop on a space and talk a little bit about it.
The ETF, the main one we're gonna talk about is WILD, W-I-L-D.
So nice ticker as well.
Pretty easy to remember.
And I could definitely see this one going wild.
So, yeah, let's hop into it.
Adam, how's everything going?
All right, I'm on now.
Hey, I'm doing great.
Thanks for having me.
Yeah, my pleasure.
My pleasure.
Been working together with you for a long time, and it's always exciting to see you
add new products to the mix.
We talked about this a lot yesterday with YLD and how so many people have become enthralled
with these single stock leveraged ETFs that are really kind of taking over the market.
And we've seen heavy, heavy inflows.
I mean, I think there's $10 billion plus in them now.
And then you're basically using data from them
to create a separate ETF
with some of the criteria pulled from these pieces.
And I think in a market like this,
especially there's a lot of people
that seem to remain pretty strongly bullish,
especially on these growth names.
And a lot of these single stock ETFs
are based on these high quality growth names,
that this could be something
that has potential explosive growth.
So I wanted to get you in here and let people hear from the mouth of the master themselves.
So I'll turn it over to you.
First off, maybe just to start, if you have any general thoughts on this market before
we hop into things that you've been watching there, and then maybe talking a little bit
wild here.
Yeah.
I mean, look, the market is, oh God, I mean, it's looking like a positive day today.
And then we get the news on the job report, which who knows, might be reversed tomorrow, the next day, given the way things go.
And, you know, it's just so hard to gauge where this market is going.
I think you just got to look at the fundamentals and, you know, the CapEx being invested in various industries to see that, you know, the future is bright and you just got to stay disciplined and keep investing because the market goes up over time. You kind of got to ignore these little dips and valleys along the way.
So, yeah, it has paid off for those who have, right? We basically just bounced all the way
right back to nearly all-time highs. SPY, I believe we're still green on the year. Obviously,
you had a little bit of an interesting soft in the latter portion of today, and we closed just flat, basically. But we're still up over a
percent. But yeah, what were you going to say there at the end? Yeah, no, look, I'm psyched.
I think you opened it up about Wild. I had a great day today. I mean, I am pumped about this
new product. And look, I've been in the ETF market since 2001. I've launched a lot of ETFs. But this
one, I feel like it's a game changer for investors. It really
fills a gap. And you talked about those single stock leverage ETFs, which clearly have been
extremely interesting to all investors, retail right through to institutional. They've been
using them to express their views of different stocks. But as you know, it's really hard to pick
the right stock, right? I mean, if you pick it, you know, you think Tesla is going to be booming and all of a sudden, you know, it's down three percent.
So, you know, if you're levered into those positions, you can really get hurt. So, you know, we kind of, you know, took, you know, almost a year to really kind of do the research to try to understand, you know, how can we do this better?
How can we provide what in essence people are looking for is high beta exposure.
So rip the name away and they're looking for high beta exposure.
So how do we provide that in a more institutional way?
So what we try to do here is-
Cut back.
Can you hear me?
Yeah, you're good.
Yeah, all good.
Okay.
We tried to talk to the institutions.
If you wanna come up with an institutional approach to talk to the institutions. You know, if you want to come up with an institutional approach, you know, talk to the institutions, talk to the institutional trading desk.
How does it, how do institutional trading desks deliver high beta exposure to their clients?
Well, what they do is they package several names together.
Instead of just betting on one name, they have various methodologies.
They're picking five, eight, ten names um to you know provide
that upside but you know control the downside risk a little bit um you know by avoiding the
single stock choice that you have to make or the bet so um you know and that's what we've done so
you know we created a methodology based on market sentiment and momentum we're going where the money
is you know we're looking at the single stock
universe, all the names that those single stock ETFs cover. And we're saying, all right, well,
let's go with the wisdom of the crowds. Which are the biggest ones in terms of assets and which
ones are driving the most new inflows? Let's put a scoring system together and go where the money is.
Pick the names that are attracting the most investment
and have the most interest from investors. Because as we know, behavioral finance is real.
You know, the investor sentiment portion of investing is real. When people are positive
on a stock, you know, it has a lot better chance of going up. And that's just been proven time and
time again. So that's the essence of WILD wild five stocks. We rotate them monthly. The rotation is based on investment sentiment and momentum going where the money is.
Yeah. Stock talk, Evan, I want to pull you guys into this because it was really intriguing to me.
We've obviously done a lot of stuff with the single stock leveraged ETFs. And so with these
criteria, right, so you're looking at two things, like I've just pointed out,
right, total assets inside. So taking across the board, right, from, you know, micro sectors and
defiance title, you know, whoever else is launching these different double average ones,
adding up all those assets and seeing, okay, well, where's most assets, which I'll tell you is Tesla.
And then the other side, who has that
highest growth month over month in assets, and then chart plotting those across the board,
and then using those two criteria to select the top five within those. To me, it's very interesting.
It basically is like Adam said, right there, right? You're looking at, hey, where's the money going?
And it's both institutional and retail that you'd be tracking. And where's the money already been,
right? Like where are people stacked up positions? And so you're going to get certainly a lean towards those
really popular names, but you're also going to be capturing some of that alpha. So Stock Talk,
I'd be curious to hear your thoughts. I had never seen anything like this. I don't know if I ever
would have thought of something like this, but I could see how it could have explosive moves in
either direction and be a great trading tool. Yeah, I think it could be a great trading tool.
Back in the COVID era, there was a real sort of emergence of this focus on social media
sentiment and what was popular and what was being talked about.
And I always felt like it wasn't as good of an assessor of where the money was going because it wasn't using
any objective data. And so I think this is kind of a way to approach that idea of how popularity
benefits stocks, but doing it in an objective way where you're not basing it on, you know,
what name am I seeing most on my Twitter feed, but rather like, where is, um, where's the inflow
actually happening?
So I think that's I think it's a great way to do it, to be frank.
And I'm surprised no one's done it before Vista already.
But yeah, I think that I think it'll be a popular trading tool.
Frankly, I think, you know, people want to kind of capture where the tide is going.
And even if people aren't going to use it necessarily as their way to express their exposure
to that stock, they might use it as a way to try to navigate the tides and sentiment in the market
around those popular names. So yeah, I think it's a very smart way to do it. I think it's hard to
figure out a way to do it. And this is probably one of the better ways to try to do it.
Yeah, I agree.
So to your point, you know, you could definitely use it as a standalone tool just to get that high beta exposure to these hot, you know, quote, hot stocks.
And in terms of our current portfolio, we've got Palantir, Meta, MicroStrategy, Supermicro and Tesla.
So that's our initial portfolio.
And again, it changes monthly.
So are there requirements on like the market cap, minimum market cap for what you guys are looking
at? There's not because it's interesting is that, you know, we're using the single stock leverage
ETF universe of names as the universe of names. So, you know, that vetting has happened because,
you know, you need to have certain requirements in place to get an ETF to market.
So that universe continues to be grown out.
Now there's smaller names certainly being launched, which will grow eventually if their market caps, you know, if the businesses are strong enough to have a larger market cap. But so we don't set those arbitrary deadline parameters. We're using
the universe as it is and trying to just find those, quote, hot stocks. There could be moments,
I guess, where, you know, you kind of pull in maybe an unexpected holding.
Well, certainly. Yeah. So, I mean, but that's also the reason why we could be a good thing. Yeah.
Yeah. So if we have a small, I mean, I don't even,
I couldn't even give you an example right now, but let's say there's one with a smaller market cap
that may not have as much capacity in the swap market for a single stock ETF to grow too large,
but you're seeing the momentum in the flows. We can put that in our product and, you know,
it's only 20% of the portfolio. So a little less exposure there for us, easier to implement for sure. So, you know, you use this as
your core, you know, if you love Tesla, you know, you're getting Tesla in our portfolio, but if you
really love it more than just having 20% exposure to it, you can still buy the single stock ETF,
stock ETF, but at least you're not going to blow yourself up if Tesla goes the wrong direction.
but at least you're not going to blow yourself up if Tesla goes the wrong direction.
Yeah, I think that's a great point. And I think, you know, it kind of gives you the opportunity
where if there is a thematic that's sort of overtaking the market, it's almost kind of
destined that, you know, one or two of those names will get pulled in.
I agree, 100%. So we're really pumped up about this one. We think it's going to be a winner.
You know, it traded pretty well today. We had some NYSE data connectivity things going on in
the morning with all the different brokerage platforms where they couldn't see the trade.
So, but that's all fixed and, you know, we'll be ready, ready tomorrow for sure.
ready tomorrow for sure. If Mike Scharber wants to request up, if he is requesting,
feel free to bring him up on stage. But yeah, good questions there from Stock Talk. I think
you're getting into kind of the root of how this all comes together. And Adam, good explanation
there on like why it doesn't necessarily need, you know, the market caps or things like that.
It's kind of going to be buoyed up by the market. Can you talk a little bit about how often you're rebalancing and the methodology of why?
Yep. So we're rebalancing the entire portfolio monthly. So we're rerunning the methodology
monthly to make sure that we have the right components. So they might change, right?
If Tesla goes out of favor and their assets drop, they may no longer be in the portfolio.
There might be some new names that
get really hot with really strong inflows, and they need to come into the portfolio.
So that'll change monthly. I don't know if it's going to be a five out of five change or one out
of five. It really depends on what's going on in the market. And that's the beauty of it. Again,
we're going where the money goes. So that's monthly. And then daily, we're resetting the
portfolio. So every day, we're resetting the leverage. It's a 2x leverage daily. So it's monthly. And then daily, we're resetting the portfolio. So every day, we're resetting the leverage.
It's a 2X leverage daily.
So it's a daily reset on the 2X leverage.
So at the end of trading, we're resetting the leverage.
We're resetting the portfolio to equal weight every day.
Yesterday, I actually misspoke and I said, we're letting the positions run.
We are not.
We're actually resetting the portfolio to equal weight every day
when we reset the leverage,
which is what we think
is an attractive feature for sure.
And that is the methodology.
It's simple as hell.
And we're going to have the methodology
is right on our website as well.
Actually, it'll be up tomorrow.
So anyone can dig in
and see exactly what we're doing.
Yeah, so if people want to see, you know, you can look through Actually, it'll be up tomorrow. So anyone can dig in and see exactly what we're doing. Yeah.
So if people want to see, you know, you can look through some of these 2X leverage ones
and see some of the track record return and then kind of imagine how that would transform
into this.
But provide, it's funny, you're taking all those leverage things.
Can I just ask, can I ask?
So it's basically for every $1 you put in, you know, you're
getting 40 cents.
There's five things in here.
So you're basically getting 40 cents of exposure to each one.
When I was doing the math there.
So it's like, yeah, when it was five holdings is kind of how to think about it.
That's correct.
Exactly.
That's exactly right.
I'm curious.
I'm sorry to cut you off there, God.
I'm curious on the backtesting for that rebalancing.
Obviously you have for it to be that daily exposure, you have to rebalance it every single day.
I guess maybe you could have let that drift go or whatever.
But I'm curious on the month rebalancing and the daily one, how that backtested.
Why those are better than some of the other options maybe that you saw?
You know what?
We wanted to keep it fresh because market sentiment shifts so quickly and new names become hot so quickly or out of, you know, in or out of favor.
We wanted to be nimble. So, you know, look, month to month, there might be no change.
If the overall flows and asset levels remain similar, there won't be a change in the portfolio.
And that's the beauty of it. So, you know, but if things markedly change and, you know, sector biases
change and, you know, you're looking at for different types of stocks that are driving the
flows, we want to be able to capture that on a monthly basis. And look, it's an active ETF. We
run a rules-based core process, which I described. If things change dramatically, we could change it
intramonth as well, but we don't have plans to do that.
That's more of a safety valve type mechanism that we have at our disposal. So we looked at many
different types of methodologies and different trading frequencies and things like that. But
we felt the monthly was the most reactive to the market, which is what we're trying to be, and provided the best overall return pattern over time.
Good question there, Evan.
I would love to hear from any others on the panel if people have thoughts on how they would maybe go about using this, any of the internal detail, some of those different pieces.
I see we've got Sniper, Emp, a few others on here.
Sniper, Emp, you guys got any questions here?
I'll throw one in.
Just the first one that came to mind.
Adam, I jumped on the website because when I saw you guys were releasing this today,
I was like, I got to go read about it.
And obviously, I see these iBeta moving type of names on here.
And tell me more about this animal spirits piece.
You know, is this the psychological thing?
We talked about this earlier, actually,
StockTrack mentioned kind of that psychological drive
behind a lot of trends in the market.
What's, I guess, is the strategy here to capture that? Just say, hey, people are loving
these names or flooding into these? And is wild going to continue being, you know, these five
names? Or is there an open door to maybe move this? Or what's the process there?
Yeah, so the animal spirits is kind of the overarching term that was coined, you know, 50, 60 years ago to kind of really
capture the behavioral impact on stock prices from investor sentiment. And that's what we're
trying to capture. And for us, investor sentiment is we're tying that to asset flows and asset
levels. So, you know, where the money is, where the money's going,
what investors, how do investors feel about individual names? And, you know, when they're positive on them, they're going to bet with their wallets, right? So if they're very positive as a
group, you know, the wisdom of the markets, the wisdom of the crowd, they're going to, they're
going to bet with their wallets and they're going to invest in certain names. Those names will
collect assets. And then we're going to want to capture that in the portfolio because we'll see those flows coming
in. So that's the animal spirit. It's the behavioral underpinning of really everything
that goes on in the stock market. You know, a lot of things we always talk about every day,
regardless of different topics, right? It's sentiment. It's how people feel. It's consumer
confidence. It's all tied together.
And that's what we're really trying to capture. So I think we're the first to really try to
capture that. And certainly the first in a trading vehicle that's designed for tactical
shifts to drive alpha in your portfolio. And to your point, yes. So every single month,
we're going to be rerunning this methodology, relooking at the asset flows and the total asset
levels of these different names that are subject to these single leverage ETFs, determine where the
assets are going and which are the most popular. And based on that, our scoring system, we are
going to reevaluate the portfolio. And what I didn't mention is that in terms of the methodology, we are weighting asset flows at 60% and total assets at 40%. So we're actually overweighting
the kind of the momentum piece, right? Where people are putting their money versus where
they have already put their money. So a slight overweight there. And over time, we see that the
portfolio does change. I mean, it does. I mean, some months it doesn't change at all in our testing. But certainly sometimes you'll get
all five swapped out, depending on what's going on in the market. And the markets shift on a dime.
So you got to be prepared to react and provide the best outcome as possible.
Follow-up question. What's some of the categories, if you can share or if you're not able to share, that's
fine.
But what are some of the things you're looking at?
Are you looking at total volume?
Are you looking at social sentiment as well?
Like what are some of the factors that drive the selection of the names?
Yeah, it's very simple.
We are looking at the universe of single name levered ETFs.
Now, let's just be clear. We do not invest in ETFs. We are
investing in the names. So we are looking at the universe of single stock ETFs. And let's say,
you know, I don't know how many there are in the market now. Let's say there's 80 of them.
But there's only about 25 or 30 names that underlie those because some issuers, you know,
they all have a Tesla product or an NVIDIA
product, for instance. So what we do is we aggregate all the assets and all the asset
flows by name. So all the Tesla assets and all the NVIDIA assets, Palantir, Supermicro,
whatever it may be, we look at the total assets in those names. Then we also look at the flows
into those names. And based on that, we run our scoring system to look at 60% of our score is based on how
much in total assets are going into the names.
And 40% is based on how much assets is already in the names.
And then we will score our top five based on a methodology.
And we'll put those in the portfolio equal weight.
So right now, Palantir, Meta, MicroStrategy, Supermicro, and Tesla are in our portfolio equal
weighted, and then we lever them up two times, just like the other single stock ETFs in the
marketplace, and then we reset that leverage daily.
So we're rebalancing the portfolio monthly, and we're resetting the leverage and the equal
weight nature of the
five securities daily. Oh, super interesting. All right. Last question for me, and I'll pass
the mic on. Is there any thought of having the opposite version of this product? And when I mean
opposite, like maybe a short version, call it tame, for example. Is there any thought process
around doing that? you know what there
is we um we actually filed for two so we didn't file for the short um we did file for an unlevered
version so we have an unlevered version that's uh available to launch but we will be doing um we
probably will file for the short version at some point. But frankly, given where these names are going
and where the market's going, a short version,
I don't know if it's going to have much play.
If you look at the asset flows into these Leverton short
different products, there's very little play in the-
I feel like I'd be scared to death
to short these five names as a unit.
I feel like that would just be a terrible thing. But I had to I had to ask that. One other question I'm gonna ask, what about
option strategies on or another product similar to this with option strategy? Any thoughts around,
you know, this one, because what I'm understanding is this is going to be a pure levered up to x play
on the names that are currently in it. Any options thoughts around you? Because it
sounds like this basket of names is a high beta basket as well. It seems like there may be some
option opportunity there to generate a little bit more. Yeah, that's something that's been on
the whiteboard for sure. Right now, we've been focusing on the option strategies around more
core equity holdings. So we have OMAH and QUSA in that space. You know, those are kind of more core
equity holdings with the 15% annual target on an annual basis that pays out monthly 1.25%.
But to your point, yeah, I mean, look, if wild goes wild, there's plenty of different derivations
to, you know, come off of this chassis, as well as other kind of more,
you know, well, I don't wanna get into some of the ideas,
but there's a lot of different ideas related to these
that can be launched and, you know,
assuming we have success with this first one.
Yeah, I love the idea.
I will just say, if you're in the audience,
you're listening, you can look at almost all
this information right here, VistaShares.com.
Go check it out. It's right there
on the landing page. There's a line on the landing page. You click into it, though, and I see a wolf
there. I know the team around here likes that second graphic a little bit better, but, Gav,
I'll pass it back over to you. Yeah, I do love that wolf graphic. I'd love to see it. Adam,
this was great. We ran through Wild a bunch here. I know we've got about eight more minutes. Do you
want to touch on any of the other ETFs or continuing wild you know what i would love to
talk about ai because i i gotta tell you i mean i don't know if shy's on but i mean every single i
mean we were on yesterday right we were talking about meta and their deal on the nuclear power
plans i mean um today amazon announces $10 billion investment into data centers in North
Carolina. Every single day, people are doubling down on investment in infrastructure. And as you
know, we have AIS, which is the only AI infrastructure ETF in the market. It's designed
to give exposure to the picks and shovels in the AI space, which is the companies that are building the AI data centers
and the AI semiconductors. AIS is, you know, the performance has been spectacular coming out of
the tariff tantrum. And I love that product. I love the methodology. It's designed, the methodology
is designed by, you know, some of the gurus in the AI space where they whiteboarded out, how do I get pure exposure into AI?
And John McNeil, who's my partner in this company, he's the former president of Tesla.
He's on the board of General Motors.
He's vice chairman of GM's Autonomous Vehicle Division.
Sonny Madra, who is the president of Grok, which is one of the leading AI, privately held AI companies in the world. They were actually
one of the centerpieces of that new initiative in Saudi Arabia called Humane. So, you know,
these are guys that know the AI space better than literally anyone in the world. And this
methodology was designed that runs AIS to get that pure exposure into the picks and shovels,
to really capitalize on all the hundreds of billions of dollars in CapEx that's being invested around the world. Where is that money going? It's going into
data centers and it's going into semiconductors. So while all these other AI ETFs out there are
giving you access to the MAG-7, which nobody needs, everyone has that. You have it if you
buy the S&P 500. Very few people have exposure to the companies that are in this portfolio for AIS.
Very few people have exposure to the companies that are in this portfolio for AIS.
So, you know, I love the AI space.
I think we're really early in the space and extremely bullish.
Yeah, and that ticker is AIS for those who want to take a look at it.
You recently added a new name to it.
Do you want to go over that real quick?
Yeah, I mean, we have an investment committee made up of John McNeil, Sonny Madra, and then
we have this professor, Robert Whitelaw, who's a former dean of the undergraduate NYU Stern School of Business and chairman of the finance department.
So, you know, what our job is to oversee the core portfolio, which is based on this bill of materials concept, which we filed a patent on, very unique methodology.
But our job as an investment committee is to sit there and look at the portfolio, identify risks and opportunities.
So we're not getting up in the morning and making crazy trades and saying, let's get in this out of that.
We make trades very cautiously and conservatively.
But we just added a GEV to the portfolio about two weeks ago, GE Vernova, which we're really excited about.
And people have known about that stock for a while, but there's been a lot of news around
that stock most recently, a lot of contracts signed, which made us move on it because it's
been on our watch list. Because the problem in the AI data center space is that there's a lack
of power. And we talked about this yesterday. The lack of power is a big issue.
So what a lot of data center operators and builders are doing, they're putting their own
power plants on the campus with the AI data center because they need to power their own
data center. They can't go off the grid. So what are they doing? Nuclear is definitely an option,
but that's a little bit down the road to get micronuclear going. So they're using natural gas generators. So, you know, fortunately for the United States,
we've got tons of natural gas. We've got all the natural gas we can ever want. The problem is we
have no turbines to run those generators. So who creates the turbines? GEV, general GE Vernova
is the leader in creating the turbines for those natural gas power generation plants.
So, you know, it's just a it's a pain point in the supply chain for the AI industry.
And, you know, we felt GEV was a great addition to the portfolio.
We added it as a high conviction pick, which for us is four percent, puts it about fourth or fifth largest holding.
So yeah, we're really excited about that.
Yeah, and that's the goal here.
So for those who want to take a look at AIS, pull that up, throw it on your watch list.
You can see, like Adam was saying, the idea is to diversify away from some of those MAG-7,
but still have a lot of exposure to AI.
And even a day like today where, you know,
not everything was green. This was still up another 1.2%. And it's up 7% almost year to date,
which again, spies up 1%. So significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and QQQ right now
on the year to date portion. Any quick thoughts on that one one evan did you have any questions there emp on the ai side of things if you say ii 10 times uh legend has it that uh jensen wong appears you might be slipping
the ais in there yeah um no i'm looking at the holdings here uh sk hynix there's a there's a
couple on here that you know i know um and and you know i'm fans of there's also a couple in here
that i really don't know much about sk hynixix, Newtonix, I probably said that wrong, Commvault, Vertiv.
What?
Yeah.
So I'm very intrigued in some of those more smaller ones that I'm a fan of when I see an ETF like this,
of just digging into the holdings of, you know, that impressive team of AI experts,
of kind of what they think the picks and shovels are.
So I'm a fan of digging
into that stuff and there's a couple in here is there one or two here that you think like um i
don't even know how to ask that question but like um yeah i'm curious on these holdings that that
people don't know of like maybe if you want to give a little thoughts on them or like so why
why maybe kind of high level and on some why some people might be excited about them yeah i love
talking about vertive i mean people some people know about Vertiv, most people don't. So when you map out the supply
chain and the bill of materials, so how much does it cost to build an AI data center? And when you
map out all the components, incredibly, cooling systems is about 30% of the cost of an AI data
center because those things run hot and you need
massive cooling systems to make them run properly. So Vertiv is the leader in cooling systems in the
AI data center space. So again, it's one of those boring industrial companies that people probably
probably don't know about and they certainly don't own it in their other funds. I'll tell you that.
don't know about and they certainly don't own it in their other funds, I'll tell you that.
But, you know, it's a critical piece in the AI supply chain and the profit margins are absolutely
massive. I think you'd be hard pressed to find an AI data center that doesn't have Vertiv inside it.
So that's why we have it in there. It's one of our top 10 holdings. Performance, well, it got
killed during the tariff tantrums along with everything else, but it snapped back like everything else as well. So it's a great company. It's highly profitable.
You know, they're doing 50, 55% margins on their AI projects, which is pretty robust.
I'll jump in. Evan, if you're done with that question, I'll jump in with a question.
You're good.
Yeah, I was, so I was actually in a space last night.
We were talking picks and shovels.
And I said, look, I'm not an expert on this, but I got a lot of ideas just from going to the holdings of this.
I said, I know some professionals that have a picks and shovel ETF built.
And we were going through some of these names.
My question would be, you mentioned GE Renova.
I noticed in the holdings last night when I was going through this, there's a lot of the data
processing, some of the memory stuff with Micron. And I think, was it one of those other Silicon
Motion or somebody that does that as well? You mentioned GE Renova though, where does nuclear
fit in as well here? Is there any nuclear stuff here? Any thoughts around that?
We don't have any direct nuclear right now.
It's all on our watch list. And the reason for that is just there's just not enough publicly
traded companies with enough track record that we're comfortable putting into the portfolio.
But it's on the watch list because nuclear is definitely some place, you know, it's the place
to be, but it might be the place to be in five years from now there's so much red tape that's going to have to occur get through to get really nuclear ramped up um so it's on
again it's on our watch list but nothing that we're going to pull the trigger on right now
congrats on a big launch day here for a while and i saw it was all over my time when people
talking about it i showed out some posts recommend people check out excited to see what this one can
do and then of course some classics with ais and some other income products we've talked about any
final comments for yourself no i just appreciate you. I love talking to you guys. Please give me a follow
on X. Adam Patty is my name and give me a follow. Give Vista Shares a follow. We try to educate the
market as much as possible. If you go to our website, we've got a ton of good content. We do
a blog every other week on AI. We do an investor digest, which is not a sales piece. It's a piece
designed to give you news and information around what's happening, actually happening around the world in AI.
So we think that's an important thing for AI investors to read.
And, you know, we try to pump out that content as much as possible to educate our investors.
So, you know, I appreciate your time and, you know, look forward to the next time.
Appreciate you. I'll turn it back over to you.
All right. Yeah. Appreciate it. Thanks, Adam. I really enjoyed the conversation and thanks
to everybody that tuned in. Of course, here at Stocks on Spaces, enjoyed this chat here at the
end with VistaShares. Definitely go to VistaShares.com. Check this all out. There's actually,
there's a whole how to invest on here as well. So there's a lot of great information other than just looking into the ETS themselves.
You can learn a lot. Go check out that website. I did pin a post up top. You can see that Vista
Shares account. Give them a follow as well as Adam, who's up here on stage. Thanks to all the
speakers that hung out with us here towards the end of the show today. We appreciate everyone.
And what is today? Wednesday. So we're back tomorrow, same time, same place. A lot of earnings tomorrow to talk about. So
Brycon reporting, Lululemon, DocuSign, Rubrics is a great chart out there. Service Titan, I know
another panelist favorite that's been mentioned several times. So we'll be live for all of that
tomorrow and anything else that happens in the market. We'll see where we go after a couple trend up days and a consolidation day today.
And wherever you're at, good evening, good afternoon, maybe good morning still, I guess,
if you're out in Hawaii or somewhere. Appreciate you tuning in and we will be back tomorrow
afternoon. And on the Wolf Financial account, you will see the full schedule of all the spaces
there that we have across our
whole family of networks. And we'll be live for live trading first thing in the morning,
9 a.m. Eastern. We'll get you started and ready for the day. And with that, I'm signing off.
Thanks, everyone. Take care. Thank you.
