Hey wolf, how's it going? Good man. Happy earnings season
Happy earnings season. Happy v12. What a week. Did you get v12?
But I saw that Omar got v12 and I'm just absolutely shocked to see it in the hands of customers
Been looking forward to this since long before we even saw you on driving around with it on the live stream
so so I'll ask you because I want to make sure that I'm understanding this correctly because I saw the
Tweet that Omar put out and the description that it had inside of it and I read the description out loud
I was with a couple of people and I was like, you know, here's here's what's happening
They're like, what the fuck does that mean?
And I was like, well, here's my understanding of what this means and I wanted maybe get your thoughts on if I am understanding this correctly
I'm pulling up Omar's tweet real quick just so I can go ahead and I can grab this and share it Omar tweets a lot
So this could take me a second
This man is out here tweeting up a storm. Good luck. I
Know I'm like trying to go through Omar's timeline right now. It's yeah, just to be clear
I was one of those people who's like, what the fuck does that even mean?
Okay. Okay. I think I I think I'm getting close because I'm at I've been scrolling for like five minutes here
And I'm almost of one day back on Omar's timeline right now. So it's all right. Here we go
All right. All right. All right. Perfect now that Omar's here as well
So FSD beta v12 point one point two
This was posted by Omar and it says FSD beta v12 upgrades the city streets driving stack to a single end-to-end
Neural network trained on millions of video clips replacing over 300,000 lines of explicit C++ code
I read that out and Evan was like what the fuck does that mean? My understanding of what it means is
Thousand hundreds of thousands of lines of code that are telling the car how to drive you're now uploading
Millions of hours of video it's using that video to learn how to drive instead of off of code
Is that correct or am I wrong? Yeah, the easiest way to describe it and I'm sure Omar can go on for days about it is
Imagine you're writing code and you're trying to teach a computer how to drive
one of the first things you're gonna do is identify some objects that it needs to find like look for stoplights look for stop signs
Look for speed limit signs
You have to like come up with each of the conditions of the things that are gonna modify its behavior and each one of those
Is a line of code or many lines of code to handle it
But instead what they did is they found people that made perfect stops at every stop sign
They found people that handled every speed limit sign properly
They found people that handled every stop light
Perfectly slowing it down speeding up at the right times handling yellow lights and red lights and green lights all as they should and they
Fed all of that as data into the system that basically
From end to end tells the car what to do without any code. It's just now observing the video
That's the only thing that it's doing and that's how it decides how to make its decision simply by observation
It's very similar to how they plan on teaching optimists by just sort of having him observe doing human tasks
Actually explained that somewhat decently before very nice, okay, Omar. It is a big week for Tesla folks
Just kind of setting the stage here
Most of the stock market has been ripping this year
But Tesla at this point is down fifteen point seven percent year to date Jim Cramer is coming out and fading it
Shout out the Cramer effect and he's calling us the super six instead of the Magnificent seven
He's decided to remove it, you know, Tesla not having too shabby a day today. It was up like three percent in the morning
It's still up about half percent
And of course we have earnings coming up tomorrow
I believe that you and Sawyer will be coasting with us at 3 p.m. Eastern as we roll through Tesla earnings
We already have like 500 600 people set their minors for that space. It's gonna be a good time
so I'm curious get your thoughts Omar what you think of tests performance so far this year as well as
You know, I think that it makes sense not to include Tesla with the Magnificent seven
most of the other Magnificent seven are pretty overvalued at this point pretty overextended and
I think Tesla's very undervalued and
you know, it's funny you can literally go back to the day that Elon Musk IPO Tesla and
Find that video from 2010 I believe and
They're literally on CNBC asking him. Well, Jim Cramer says
You know and these guys they haven't learned in 10 years of being wrong about this business
That they don't understand the company that they've underestimated it at every turn
So I find all the negativity from everybody the media
Even Tesla shareholders, you know, I call it, you know
I mean, there's just a very low sentiment people don't believe in the company
But underneath the surface, I mean they're executing extremely. Well
You know send me FSD 12 this week. They've now started rolling that out to customers and
It's a massive leap forward not just in how it's driving but
Really how quickly I think we can expect it to improve from here
misunderstanding of their strategy
You know, the pricing strategy has really been central. This has really been what's causing Wall Street to take their
Estimates down is they don't understand where the earnings growth in the company is going to come from
It just really seems to me like they're looking in the rearview mirror
Why is Tesla worth ten times what B. Y. D is
It's because of AI and robotics
That's the only plausible explanation
why it should be worth ten times more than other companies in the same business and
When you really look at what the optimal strategy is if you believe in what they're doing with AI and robotics
They're going to make all of their cars be able to drive themself
Is just to maximize the number of cars that are out there. That's going to be the most important thing to do
And they're actually doing it while still being the most profitable EV company in the world
Nobody makes more money selling EVs than Tesla
So, I mean you'd think the sky is falling by listening to some people
But they're expanding volume despite economic headwinds trying to maximize the size of the fleet
Which is going to maximize the value of their AI efforts
At the moment where they get this thing to a superhuman level of reliability where it's ready to be driverless
The value is going to be the value of the software package on one car
Times the number of cars out there on the fleet that can run it
So it seems like a crazy strategy
To wall street hedge fund managers who are losing their mind
Is also is you know, really a breakthrough strategy
for people who are looking forward
I mean we're witnessing history here
We've achieved EV price parity
For years and years we talked about
the dream of affordable EVs
The day when an EV would be the same price as an ICE car off the lot before factoring in fuel and maintenance savings
I mean forget about the thirty five thousand dollar model three
You can get a model y in the u.s. Now
for thirty six thousand dollars after the point of sale credit
And you can get that car and it can run this fsd software i'm talking about
It can drive you curb to curb often
You know in summary, I think
This company remains extremely undervalued
It remains extremely misunderstood
I think there's a much greater chance than people realize that then it could uh outperform all of the other
Six stocks in the so-called magnificent seven this year
And I think you know the best days in the market usually come after the worst days
My conviction that their strategy is the right strategy is higher than ever
And almost everybody from retail shareholders to fund managers
Is convinced it's the wrong strategy
So this is really the linchpin is their pricing strategy
But you just look around you things are improving significantly
You've got the ev point of sale credit in the u.s
Which dramatically lowers the the price of the vehicle dramatically improving affordability for the model y
without costing tesla dime
You've got cogs coming down
As inflation cools all while interest rates come down in the back half of this year
Allowing, you know everything they've experienced with financing and issues related to that to play out in reverse
We've got the debut of the cyber truck. We got the debut of the model 3
Fsd 12 we got a new model y coming there's going to be updates to the s and x in february
Uh year of new product introductions in tesla's history
It's not really surprising to me that people are underestimating them
In their future trajectory of earnings growth and just growth in general
People have been estimate
Underestimating this company literally since the day they ipo'd
Despite it, you know going up 20 000 since then
And I think people will continue to underestimate them until um
Maybe we have something more concrete
But hopefully elon can sort of outline the strategy explain what they're thinking
Maybe help wall street to sort of think about this from a different perspective
An incredible business. They've got the number one car in the world
They're dominating in the auto business. They got the number one car in europe
For the first time a non-european cars number one a premium cars number one an electric cars number one
But it's clearly not going to be the earnings driver of the future of the business
Any more than you know, the mackintosh is the earnings driver
I'll just summarize it by saying, you know, everybody's going to be looking at automotive gross margin
I'm going to look be looking at fsd and optimus
How many miles are driven? How many users they have?
Any progress they have there?
I think that's really going to determine the growth of earnings trajectory
What I really see is the next step is not autonomy
tesla simply needs to get
more the majority of their users more than 50 percent
to buy or subscribe to fsd
And the earnings of the business will double on the automotive side very quickly
And that's really what wall street needs to see they need to see
And I think that's what their ai efforts are going to deliver
Yeah, I think that that is a good point there at the end right it's ultimately where is the surprise going to come from because they
Do you know pre-release a lot of different numbers and ends like that also someone loved one of your quotes that you made right there
We've achieved achieved ev price parity with ice
Uh, so some different pieces along those lines great start
Yeah, this is you know, this is a historic moment
Because for years ev's were more expensive than ice if you remember five years ago
When the model three came out
The goal was to build a thirty five thousand dollar electric car profitably
And people said ha you can't do it. You can't get a car down to thirty five thousand dollars
And have it be profitable and have people want to buy it. It's impossible
The company's going to go bankrupt trying to do this. It's a fraud
Now they're doing it like it's nothing they're selling model wise model threes
for a lower price than that when you factor in inflation
And instead of celebrating that we've achieved this goal we've had since the beginning of the company
Shareholders are all crying
The prices are coming down
Oh, their wall street's taking earnings estimates down
Of course wall street's taking earnings estimates down
They are terrible at guessing what the future earnings of the company are going to be
So I think this was really important. This has really been
The lynchpin of the tesla stock story has been the price reductions
You got wall street and you know, even prominent tesla investors just banging the drum
That this is a major strategic mistake
And that it's going to just be terrible for the company
I think this is a really important point to make that
If tesla does not fulfill its vision of being the affordable mass market car company
Byd some other chinese company
And it's not a strategy that's incompatible with earnings growth at all
Because the key thing for their earnings is just going to be the size of the fleet
The one thing tesla has to do right now from my perspective
Is just pump out as many cars as humanly possible
export them around the world
And get them ready to download fsd12
Did you like my uh 10 years later comment on your post yesterday
Yeah, that was pretty good
I don't know if anybody else saw that oh my had a great post about the industry doubting
Elon musk and what's coming in the future and you know, I think that tesla might add some other features to their cars in the future
All right, ryan. Can I come over to you seconds here get some updated thoughts on what's test what's been going on with tesla this year
Hey wolf, thanks for having me on
Yeah, I definitely like what omar was saying like I think it makes sense that
The earnings are going to mainly come from the ai and robotic side of what tesla is doing
In the longer term like for the vehicle business
Selling the the vehicles themselves
Is is really smart like they're they're making their cars profitably
Uh at a higher margin than
almost all auto manufacturers
Um, but in the future let's be clear
They're making more profit than all of the legacy automakers combined
Because all of the legacy automakers have negative profit
Yeah, so like the the future competition and in the space is primarily going to come from the electric vehicle manufacturers and
I guess i'm just not confident that they're making more profit
like as a percentage per per vehicle I assume they are but um
Like you know to your earlier point. I think the majority of the profit that tesla is going to make
The the software and so if you can just roll out as many vehicles as you can get customers
To drive them on the road, then you also have more data to train the fleet. So
It definitely just seems like the correct approach on the vehicle side
I think the majority of the profit for tesla as a business as a whole business
Is going to come from tesla energy
So if they can continue making progress on the mega pack and
Uh, I think there's mega pack xl or something like that
You know all these stationary storage projects are huge and they're just going to continue to grow
Because there's this tidal wave shift in the entire world. That's transitioning from
Like former energy sources to renewable energy sources
tesla's leading that wave
Like just being able to ride this current that is in your favor
It is just it's humongous. So it's like they have their core business of the vehicles where
Electric vehicles and then on top of that this other
side of their business with stationary storage
Like solar panels and solar roof
Everything's moving towards that anyway
And they are also the leader
like perceiving the real world and
It's just a no-brainer to be
and and on top of that they have
The the best leader that our generation and our generations have seen
So it's like a total no-brainer in my view to be invested in this company
Opportunity and uh, like it's a privilege to have this company be public
There's plenty of other companies that are private that
Uh, they have great teams and they're doing great work and they're not investable for the most for most people
I'm not concerned at all that the stock's down this year. I'm
I'm actually quite happy because
like it continues to be undervalued for longer and
I and others have more more of an opportunity to
Like build up capital so that we can invest more
Continue to be excited about the company. I look forward to listening to their earnings call and seeing what they have to say
Thanks for having me on wolf
Yeah, of course. Thanks for being on here. Looking forward to hearing more thoughts scott. I saw your hand go up
Did you have a thought or question there?
Yes, I have a thought I do agree with omar getting fsd out to as many cars as possible
You know one thing I don't understand why tesla doesn't do, you know, obviously the 12 grand
You know price that's a big bite for someone to take but why not take advantage of you know
Some you know, so called the impulse buyer, right when you're buying your vehicle offer an incentive at that time when you're buying for
Knowing that once you drive the car off the lot that incentive goes away and you have to pay 12 grand like everyone else
Right, you know mari got any thoughts on that
I mean, I I think it's clear that tesla hasn't done anything
To try and get people to buy fsd
To the contrary their strategy almost seems to be that we don't want people to buy it
That's kind of the only explanation I can think of
It's gotten to a point where they're comfortable pushing it in a marketing sense
I think they can drive adoption up very quickly
One thing you could do is just give everyone a free trial for a couple months
If they like it, they will absolutely stay subscribed
You know another idea you mentioned having a discount pricing at the time of purchase
That you know, that's a lever they could do. I mean
The nature of fsd is that all the costs are fixed
You hire the developers you buy the compute
The cost activated on an additional car the marginal cost is practically nothing
So this is very different economics than we've ever seen in the auto business before
You're usually looking at I don't know, you know 10 20 margin on a car
This is more like 70 or 80 percent on the softer piece of it
So the margin on selling the softer package is actually greater
Than selling their entry-level car
So I expect them to do a lot to try and push this software
Uh once the time is ready
And I think that time is going to be when v12 goes to wide release across the globe
A lot of people who have followed stocks
including like adobe and microsoft
uh when when they made their transitions from
Selling software as one-time packages to
The recurring revenues software that in like monthly subscriptions that they have now
Um, it's just completely changed their business. I think for tests that's going to be the same
Like in the future. They're just going to push the monthly subscription
And I think a lot of people are not realizing that that subscription price is going to increase
In the way that the one-time cost package has increased in the past
If you purchase or if you subscribe to fsd
at the highest amount it's
But in the future, it's probably going to increase to 249 299
Eventually when when the software is super good. I just imagine that it's going to be
It like 700 800 a month and
It's super sticky like everybody
Once they're subscribed, why why not just continue to be subscribed if they have a fleet
That's driving and picking up people and dropping them off and it's producing income for them
I think in a similar way to how how it helped completely change the economics of
It it's probably going to be the same for for that. So
Wouldn't be shocked ryan if when the robo taxi version comes out, right?
Like when it comes with a platform where you can offer your car up for other people to drive it
Not just full self-driving when you are in the car. I think that that version
Is going to be like a thousand bucks a month or you know, 1500 bucks a month or something like that
The one where you're able to profit i'll bet maybe they go up to 249 or something for the regular version
I wouldn't be shocked at all if you're right and they do increase that price
But I think really they're going to juice the hell out of people doing robo taxis
Yeah, I I try to practice a little bit of restraint, but I think you're right like eventually it's going to be
The you know if it completely drives by itself
a hundred percent or nine, I don't know six nines after the decimal then
Or four nines after the decimal, whatever it is
They got to get it to a point where
costs approximately the same as
I think half as much as a driver would cost to drive the car around right at that point
You're making twice as much profit as if you ran a normal taxi
You're running a robo taxi. So what I mean, the sky is really the limit
That's what they're competing against is the price of a driver when you're talking about a robo taxi
If you're talking about in my car, they're competing against the convenience the the you know
The the cost of my time which you know in some cases if i'm able to work or whatever might be a lot
But I think if you're talking about that plus the cost of a driver, that's really really a ton
Kristin you want to oh Omar do you want to go first?
Yeah, I was just going to say
The price of a cell phone
Especially when you add smartphones you add people start adding data plans
I mean this product is fundamentally like crack
When you give it to somebody they get used to it
They're not going to want to drive a car that doesn't have these active safety features that they have to drive manually ever again
So it's kind of like the iphone where you sell it to them. You hook them on this data plan
And they're going to buy that iphone once
But they're going to pay for that data plan every month for years and years
It's actually worth much more than the phone itself
And I think it's the same kind of model here
Everybody's fixated on how much money can they sell on the car?
What is the sort of recurring revenue base they're building here?
Yeah, that's a good point christine you want to jump in here
Yeah, um with tomorrow's, you know earnings it's going to be exciting. I mean
The stock price is down, but I think I think as we as we look back on 2023
We see a lot of people investing in the ai
We see it in microsoft. We see it in a video. We see it people investing in chips
It's this big hype of what's going on and it's exciting
And I think tesla has steadily been delivering with the fsd and I think people take it for granted
I mean we do have the optimist coming out and showing more improvements that are um scaling quite quickly
And I think we'll see as as tesla delivers more that people will they'll get it and they'll invest. Um
I don't know. I I think I think people don't get it because I think they take it for granted
but I think we're gonna see um, we'll see profit increase through that as it goes and I think um
I I don't know like I think with the sales with the different incentives that they put on we're gonna see some uptick
I personally think we'll see some uptick with um, you know from people upgrading their cars with the fsd transfers with the um lifetime
Supercharging boost and software is a service service service
We can't forget that that itself is going to also help
And the supercharging network that continues to grow and the people that are licensing with tesla different um automotive groups to use it as well
Yeah christen brings up a great point like the other auto manufacturers now that are making electric vehicles
They they can use tesla's charging network and
Not only uh accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation and energy
Like they're also making money
Uh, yeah, the former versions of ford and gm like they owned exxon mobile
The gas stations the tesla has all the charging infrastructure
Is there a lull going on where we can't hear each other or something, okay, all right, I think i'm back am I back
Can you hear me christen? I can hear you. I can't hear anything. All right
What the heck is going on? All right. I think we're back. I think back. I think we're good. Sorry about that
I uh, I was having some troubles on my end. I'm in a hotel room with hotel room wi-fi
I don't know if that was you. You never know. I heard nothing there for a little bit, too. I disconnected came back
I'm doing into silence, you know peace tranquility
Um, okay. All right. Well, hopefully we went through some of that
Okay, um, I wanted to talk a little bit about this earnings call here and what we are thinking
uh, you almost kind of a sad boy on the last one omar and
You know, I think that that was kind of heard throughout ryan. You got thoughts on that
No, no go go for it. I have thoughts about something. Yeah
Yeah, he was kind of a sad boy on the last call and uh, I feel like you know, I want to
Hear your guys thoughts on if you think that that temperament has changed a little
Now that the cyber truck's out and all that stuff
I remember talking about the cyber truck and kind of hyping up how expensive it was going to be and
The pricing charges and stuff and that was the cyber truck was the big thing really for I feel like this past one
And what is going to be the main focus of this one? Right? Like what is big topic? Is it?
Is it talking about optimist now that there's videos of folding clothing out?
I'm, just curious where you think he's going to focus in on and if the tone it will be upbeat or a
Little more down like it was last time. Yeah penny go for it
I'm not expecting his tone to change a lot
I think he his tone is more based on the macro
Than the micro or even anything specifically that tesla is doing
I think he expects to continue to execute at a high level with tesla and is basically waiting on interest rates
To go down before he gets much more bullish about the stock or earnings calls
That's when I would expect to hear his tone change
So maybe the next earning call this one unless we get a sudden drop in rates between now and the call
I just really don't expect it
By the way, i'm curious if that drop that we just had on spaces. So elon was on spaces
For the last little bit talking about irish hate speech and then he closed his space and or whoever who he was with
And right when they closed their space we lost sound
And there was about seven and a half thousand people in that space and I don't know if there was like an influx
I mean obviously our space just you know another 50 people just jumped in welcome welcome
But I I don't know if that was something to do with it
But one of the people who just jumped in with soyer who I see is on here with us
So soyer we've been talking about what we think elon is going to focus in on on this earnings call
Also thoughts on tesla, you know being down about 15 year to date while the rest of the market's ripping
There's a lot of things going on and of course optimists and other pieces curse get everything you've been looking at
Yeah, so what's going on guys?
I think elon will probably focus on the macro conditions. I I just have a feeling that's that'll be his explanation for a lot of things
But I hope they focus on the latest progress updates with the 46 80s, of course the cyber truck ramp
I'd like to hear that they're still pushing forward on the next gen vehicle where the progress is on that
Because that's super important to tesla's future
Wouldn't mind an optimist update as well. I think the team although we just got one in december
But the team has been making incredible progress
And I think a lot of retail shareholders at least want to just
Hear elon reiterate his commitment to tesla long term that he does want to be there. He wants to stay there
Um, he probably won't be able to elaborate much on his compensation package just because the delaware case isn't over yet
So he doesn't really make sense for him to speculate
On what his compensation package might be or what the outcome of that case might be
So he'll probably just gloss over that. Um
Honestly, I think probably the best parts of the earnings calls these days are really drew baglino's updates. He just has a well
Uh piece written up every single time that just gives us tons of data points that we don't know
Um about ladies on the giga texas cyber cell lines kato road how that's going
Quarter over quarter improvements output throughput yields all that
So we'll see we'll see how the market reacts to the earnings, but i'm not expecting anything spectacular results wise
Yeah, no, that's fair the market does typically sell off a little bit into it
And I saw that you tweeted asking for people thinking in regards to coverage and stuff like that
Uh, since we have so we're up here evan. Can I turn it over to you for a second?
I'm curious if you have a question or two you want to throw at him
All right, let me get back for a second always have some good questions
But we're going to be on spaces tomorrow that we just pinned up in the nest above for
These uh tessa live earnings, so I don't want to go through all of them
But I would love to hear your thoughts on those say.com questions. There's I know that's something you watch a lot. These are
Investor questions and the top five to six we know are going to be asked from the call or any of those
And there's still a day or two for them to to move around but any of those interesting for you
I mean, so there's two questions on there. Like I said the compensation package. That's one of those the questions on there
I think elon's gonna gloss over that
There's questions about like what tesla predicts for cyber truck like volume output this year
I think they're also going to gloss over that just because they don't personally know these things are tough to predict
Um, the other questions I think are good for the most part
I I see like a criticism every single quarter like a retail shareholders complain how bad the questions are
Well, if you think they're bad like submit your own and do it early so it gets voted up quicker
Don't just complain about it
Trust me. I've been listening to every single tesla earnings call for like seven eight years. There's been much worse questions than these ones
So at least shareholders retail shareholders get like some representation. There's a lot of big tech companies
They don't take any questions from retail shareholders
So just be thankful that we get some say and we get to go first in the lineup typically, too
But yeah, i'll probably post an update later today or tomorrow about the final
Top six questions. I think it's the same but you'll get at least a share account update
Perfect. Yeah, I enjoy looking at those and knowing some questions going into it that we know are going to at least be asked
And sometimes they do gloss over very quickly
But uh, but yeah, I really would be surprised if
The uh, I wonder if he'll explain the tweet a little bit more around kind of the compensation and hear his more perspective
I think the main tweet of him asking for more compensation or whatever got a lot more coverage than him coming back after and talking about
Um him being okay with it just being a different class of shares in the delaware
Um, definitely allow that after the ips. I feel like that will be a point on here
I think he will just say that this is not about money. This is about him having control
and unfortunately, I unless there's like a they can
Uh put in a dual class share structure, which it sounds like they might not be able to I don't know what the scc rules are
I guess some lawyers can look into that
But it sounds like the only way to do that is to give him more money
It's not like he wants more money
It's just that's the only way for him to get to 25 ownership
If he were to exercise all of his current options, which he has until 2028 to do
That would bring him up to about 22 percent
But he's going to have to pay taxes on those options. So probably it would be like net of taxes 19 or 20 percent
Um, so that leaves you like a 5 and you got to give him over time
Um, which I think they'll do and they'll probably set really ambitious market cap targets or milestones
Which is similar to what they did in 2018 and I think that's the right approach
Appreciate that always yeah penny. Sorry
Yeah, I just wanted to comment on the compensation package
Also, I think so many people get so worked up about elon getting more money and that really bothers me because
At the end of the day if he 10x is the market cap or even 5x is the market cap
It's good for all of us no matter how much stock he gets he did that last time everyone thought oh
It's going to be impossible these milestones both, you know, the internal as well as the revenue milestones
Or i'm, sorry the the stock price milestones. These are impossible. He's never going to get it
You know, everyone is hallucinating on this and he nailed it and it was great for all the the shareholders
I expect it'll be the same this time if they set him up with another deal like that
So i'm definitely in favor the 2018 compensation package elon couldn't game that he had to deliver performance or otherwise
He didn't get compensated his incentives were perfectly aligned with shareholder incentives, which is exactly what you want
You know, like I said, you couldn't game it he has from the shares, uh from the 2018 compensation package
Once he exercises those options he's required to hold those shares for five years. He has to hit a market cap milestones
So I think this new structure will be similar. I don't think they'll put
I mean they'll probably put revenue milestones as well
But I think the market cap milestones are important and you know
If tessa does well from market cap standpoint, we do well and then elon will do well. I'm fine with that
Evan did you have another question there?
No, I think that was most of it in that direction
Like I said, I always have the couple more in there, but I want to make sure I can
Do all of those for tomorrow's earnings. We're not repeating a lot of stuff
So yeah a couple stuff that i'm very excited about to hear more on i'm
Very interested to hear updates on the cyber truck and just how the rollout is going
Uh, I still think there might even be the question is elon going to be on this call?
Uh at all signs point i'm being on on it, but who knows?
Um, and yeah, i'm just excited for these earnings tomorrow
Um, it will be very interesting to see how the stock moves off of it
Feels like the type of earnings that we could be coming out of this at 240 250 or 180 170 and
Maybe I say that and we're we literally end where we started and there's no movement
But this feels like this might be a big move on the earnings
And uh, i'm looking forward to it either way. Honestly, as long as the story doesn't break
Omar talked about it a little bit and i'm sure a lot of people share this sentiment to me
This is not a car company. I would not be interested in the car or even an ev company
That's trading at 600 700 billion dollars, but I would be interested in a company that can solve
Full self-driving and all this ai and robotics and tech and that's what interests me
Uh, if this price goes down while they're moving closer to that goal, that would be something that's interested in
Very interesting for me to buy into uh conversely, let's say the stock goes up and he says yeah
We're we're screwed in fsd or whatever and we're seeing trouble here. That would scare me a little bit more
I can't see that happening. But my my care is fsd. That's that's my basically entire thesis and I know there's energy
storage and robotics and a lot of stuff around it, but
Uh, I think the ai is really the core a lot of those themes
So for me, that's something that i'm watching very closely
And I can't imagine there will be too many changes on on this earnings call
So nine out of the last 10 earning calls the stock has plummeted after
Also nine of the last 10 it's been record quarters
In this case and and I would I would argue without looking at the statistics that most of those it ran up
Leading to the earnings call. It had a great earnings call and then it dropped in this case
It's going down not up right now while the market is going up and you're saying that you you expect either
A big move up or a big move down. I'm curious why you feel that way for me
It feels like it's either going to stay the same
Uh, well that that's actually what I feel like is that it's going to stay the same
I don't think this earnings call is going to be very impactful evan. Why what's your reasoning behind that?
So you're picking the ore in my option. I love it. I love it
Uh, who knows it definitely very much could be that and you know, the option sellers tend to win a lot of this stuff
They're the people who are selling the premium and it tends to not move as much as it has to
So that is probably the best bet you can go with
I just feel like it's at a pivotal point right now
The market is hating down pretty aggressively on it
And I think there's a lot of people waiting to hear more specifically around the compensation package language
I think that's one that people are very focused on and could scare some people depending on what uh, what's said
I just think we're overall at a pivotal time right now, and I think that just given that uh, it has
Not performed with the market. I think it gives that upside opportunity
And I think there's some negative things that could be said possibly at least from the perspective of the uh,
short-term midterm trader. I think one reason that
In the last like let's use I think you said ten quarters penny
Um that its stock has been going down after earnings because wall street in the last few years has gotten much better
At there are tesla earnings estimates if you guys remember if anyone's who was a tesla investor in like 2018 2019 2020
They were really bad like their estimates were often way off resulting in a big beats back then
Um, but now especially with deliveries wall street has gotten quite good
Whereas they used to be quite low or quite too way too high
Um, usually on the low side
But now I think with they follow troy tesla like I think a lot closer too because he's quite accurate
So I think that's part of the reason we we see it perform
Not so great now because wall street's just better at you know, uh estimating
And it might be as you were saying a lot of those run-ups into it
Which I feel like has been the case
I can't give you the numbers on that one
But it definitely has felt like we've been running up into a lot of these earnings and a lot of events and everything
Yeah, that's pretty fair what's up brian
Yeah, the the stock bumps up and down and
I think most of us can agree here that the longer term we think
It's obvious which direction the ship is headed
The actual visit the actual value of the business just grows in an extremely
I guess it it literally curves, uh to be an exponential but the the value of the business increases every day
regardless of what the stock does so
Um, like whether elon's in a good mood on the on the call or not
Uh, I think it's just a matter of like what he was doing that day and the day before
Like he he has so much going on
You know, it's just like any one little thing could affect his
His mood and I think he's just extremely positive on the longer term
Value of the business and all the initiatives that they're working on
One one comment I wanted to make on on the data and information that he gets fed
Is is fascinating to hear
As somebody who's just an investor and interested in the macro economy whenever he's willing to share stuff about
The data that he's getting in from china or the data that he has from starlink
the information that he's seeing on x
We as a whole get a pulse on the macro environment. That's really informative for all of us investors
that's really fun for me and
People who are not necessarily interested in tesla
They're starting to listen to the call or at least I would assume that
Like people on wall street. They're starting to listen to the call
Currently and used to listen to amazon just because
They they get more information about the entire economy
On that topic a little bit we haven't talked about it
But china has definitely at least in the market's perspective been struggling a good little bit
So I wonder if that's also playing in to the recent stock activity
I know uh baba got a little bit of a bounce over the last day or so
There's some talks about uh extra stimulus from from china and
Uh other stuff going on there
So maybe it's uh a bottom in that market who knows but I wonder if that's also playing on some of the pressure
That we're seeing in tesla
Evan are you or anybody in the space really really?
Like focused in on china and and following what's going on over there
I'm quite surprised about like how the performance of those companies is doing right now
I won't say i'm as i'm an expert in the space now for sure
But i've definitely been watching those china names. They've been getting beaten up non-stop
I know wolf loves to talk about the baba every single day and it feels like it just
Besides today, it was just going straight down to the line for a while. Those are rough times. Um,
Yeah, but i'm definitely not the expert in that space
Yeah, it's no worries hey christian, uh, oh actually ryan you got another comment there
Yeah, sorry going back to the compensation package
It needs to be stated there simply needs to be a way to reallocate ownership of
Of the company and and rebalance the shares to our
To the people who are delivering the most value to the company
And the easy thought experiment is
Like where would the value come from there's just
There's just no value being created by the people who own those shares. So they're they're just stuck
And and so there just needs to be a way to
redistribute those shares
the compensation package for elon it's
it's a form of just rewarding him for
The percentage of the value creation that he has for the entire company
and so like for me, I think
I own a small percentage of the shares
the contribution that I have which is
Almost negligible compared to what elon does
Even even as a ratio to the shares that we own
Family and friends that the cars are super safe. I love my vehicle. Um, everybody should be
Moving towards transitioning to electric vehicles
But still i'm not delivering nearly as much value
Per share that I own so I would much rather have elon
on more of the shares he's deserving of more of those shares and
I mean what you're saying is kind of ridiculous. I think
Obviously, you know as a shareholder you've contributed capital to the company
I don't think you know shares should be taken from us and given to him just because he deserves it
Really when you look at the 2018 compensation package or the incentive plan
It was really just about aligning his incentives with ours
You know, I think he's kind of outlined the terms of what he wants
I don't want to get fired by
Ross gerber or someone like that
So he's sort of outlining the plan that you know, he's saying what he would like
And that'll probably form the basis of a new plan
Where I think you know, there's milestones for market cap revenue eBITDA, whatever
And um, you know, hopefully it can work similarly to the last plan provided he can actually deliver that growth
If he can deliver that growth then
Yeah paying him will be a drop in the bucket
I argue that there's no way
That tesla does not drop more than five percent if elon says i'm gone tomorrow, right?
There's no one else at the entire company that would have even near that impact if they disappeared
So to ryan's point, I think that you do need to compensate the people that have that kind of impact, right?
Like that's the proof. That's the pudding if you
If if tesla announced that elon was leaving as ceo, the stock would absolutely crash
I'd be shocked if it wasn't at least 10
Right. So in my opinion that is a reason to pay the man
Regardless as long as his incentives are tied to the the same incentives that the rest of the shareholders have
Then it it doesn't really matter
like the only thing that matters is that the stock goes up and we all end up ahead and
I believe that it'll go up a lot more than five percent if all of a sudden elon has a
Rigurated reason to really focus and and you know put the pedal to the metal on tesla
Yeah, thanks for saying that pain
Like oh my so your point about where the capital comes from I think back in the day
That's what doesn't really need an incremental investor necessarily
It's like the value of providing the capital or just basically renting
Loaning the amount of your
It it's like negligible compared to the people who are boots on the ground actually
Like making and building products and services
Listen everyone else. I mean, you know, really the job of management is to serve the shareholders
You know workers receive stock-based compensation. Elon has received stock-based compensation
I mean, I don't know what you're saying is really kind of
Not really how management should be operating. I mean we don't just
Obviously give shares away to people because they deserve it or something like that
This management really is supposed to they have a fiduciary duty
to serve shareholders and
To do everything they can to act in the best interest of shareholders
Doesn't that mean though that
If elon being super focused is going to bring additional value
You know, he if his new incentives are even better aligned than they currently are then that is
Following their fiduciary duty to the shareholders, right? Like elon aligned stock goes up
That seems to make sense to me. It would make less sense if I thought he was a less impactful ceo
But when you say you don't give stock to the people that deserve it
What does deserve it mean deserve it to me means that you're driving up the value of the company
You're driving up the value of the stock
He's doing that and that is how you should grant stock to people. It's who's driving up the value
I don't see any other way to do it
Um, like I mean, I think you you know, your point is correct about the the capital
Adding some value to the company
But if you have a new company and you have five owners that all own 20 of the company and four of them
And you know five of them all allocated the same amount of capital
And then you have all five of them trying to increase the value of the startup
Four of them are doing all of the work and one person's just sitting on the sidelines
There should be some way to redistribute those shares
And and so I I think that's basically what we have going on at tesla put on a larger scale
What penny saying makes a lot of sense. I mean, I I understand what you're saying about
The cash adding some value, but now it's just
Very much not as valuable. So I don't I don't want fidelity
owning a huge percentage of of the company and just
Having that percentage be set
Wanted to be slightly decreasing over time if they're not providing as much value as you want
I mean, you know, it's not set it does get diluted over time
And and what happens is the reason the stock price is as high as it is
It's because fidelity and other stockholders are buying the stock, right? So the fact that fidelity owns 25 percent of it
Is is the reason the stock or the company is valued at six over 600 billion dollars
If fidelity sold all of its shares tomorrow
This stock would plummet right and as as tesla issues new shares or
Provides compensation package for its employees. Everyone every shareholder gets diluted to some extent
And every shareholder gets equally diluted. So that's how compensation packages work, but
when one person is getting like
You know a massive compensation package like what elon is asking for it it
Unbalanced way right there's like over a hundred thousand other people who are sort of like also pushing
tesla in the right direction
It it might make more sense for like the board to provide a better compensation package for the rest of the
Employees as opposed to just one person
And those employees vote with elon because there are such huge elon fans if if
You know tesla employees warrant elon fans. They wouldn't be there. So it makes sense for
The compensation package to be a little bit more balanced rather than just providing
Uh the richest person in the world with even more
Which is not something he even needs or wants
I think there's ways to solve this problem without such a huge compensation package for him
Do you think that would be a good enough incentive though for elon just to?
Work to get more shares to the employees. Do you think that because obviously he just wants more control. That's really what this is about
So you're saying just give the employees more while also giving him more or just or more have it focused towards employees
Think you know a lot of times elon sort of speaks off the cuff and without sort of like deep
Around these things. I think if the employees were the were the ones receiving the
Let's say stock options or stock rewards
They would vote with him essentially
He's not going to get sort of kicked out of his own company if the employees are the ones that are controlling this sort of outcome
I think it would be better to
Uh to give them the the the rewards now
In his case, would he be motivated to work? I think he would be because he's not motivated by by money
He's already the richest person in the world. So
you know, like what better way for
for tesla to continue and thrive and for elon to continue to be committed than for
The rest of the tesla employees to you know, become multimillionaires as a result of
An awesome compensation package that they could get as opposed to him getting it right? Uh one person getting it. So
You know, I I mean, I don't know if he would say no to something like that. But uh
But the reality is that like I feel like it's a little bit
It's a little bit much to be asking for the compensation package of like a small country for one person
I mean, it's it's kind of crazy
And and it's unprecedented by the way
No, no, no other ceo or founder in history has ever been compensated the way elon has
Hamid no other founder or ceo in history has accomplished what he has right?
So to say unprecedented elon is unprecedented. You can't put him in the category with other ceos
I I agree with that but but at some point like what amount of money is
Like does he deserve all of the money in the world?
I mean like what at what point do you just say okay
Like that there's enough money there, you know
Like it just doesn't make any more sense to throw money at this problem
And by the way stock options do not give them control
Unless they're actually exercised because stock options are not vulnerable shares
So, um, you have to exercise them in order for them to be vulnerable shares
Before you can sort of maintain control. So stock options don't actually give them
It just compounds the problem and it just gives him more and more money
I mean like it it just doesn't make any sense to make this all about sort of like
The amount of dollars that he has at the end of the day or where he's getting
I think if we're gonna in the next compensation package if we're as shareholders and the test board are going to give you on
Unprecedented amounts of money elon should hit unprecedented market cap milestones
That way everyone does well
I mean, I think you guys are making a lot of assumptions about the cost we haven't seen any breakdown of
What the details of the plan would be or what the cost is?
I mean this discussion is so just
On another planet. I don't know
You know all employees that the company receives stock-based compensation. So whether you're a line worker
Whether you're a worker or whatever
I think it's crazy to say, you know, it's crazy that there's a
Actually a number of tesla shareholders who don't believe that elon should be paid
You know, he'll probably be ceo for some time if he's not being incentivized, but he's not going to work for free forever
And you're already too rich. We don't need to pay you. It's not a very good argument. I mean
Incentives matter this guy's got a million other problems. He's got this social network losing money
He's got a fucking rocket company
You don't think he'd like to focus on other things and you know, I don't know just put drew in charge or something like that
So we need to incentivize him and really so it's not at the expense of employees
If elon is not properly incentivized
The average compensation of all the employees will be lower
Because we need him. I think really more than ever
To execute this vision driving fsd12. It's like
This guy figured it out years ago. We can do this with computer vision. Everyone laughed at him. Everyone mocked him
There's a major difference between him leading the company and others leading the company
So I think a deal like last time where we say you don't deliver growth
You do deliver growth. He said what he wants. He just wants more voting control
He said that doesn't have to be in the form of new shares. I'll take super voting shares. Whatever
I just don't want to commit into something where i'm gonna get fired by guys like ross and hamid who say
Oh, you're already too rich
My stock went down. I don't like you. Oh, I don't like your tweet fire him
He's been around the block. He got fired from paypal
He's seen what's happened at openai
It's a pretty simple request
I don't want to get fired or have the company go in a majorly wrong strategic decision
I don't agree with I just want to have some control over the company
So I think we should there's been an incredible amount of confusion over this tweet
Which you know, oh elon asking people are saying oh elon asked for more money
That's not really how I saw it at all
I saw a bunch of people basically starting a discussion and saying hey, this guy needs to have a compensation plan
Why doesn't he not have a compensation plan? He needs to be properly incentivized with everything that's going on for us
To get the results that we want
And he sort of chimed in with a few comments and you know now people are saying oh he's gonna leave tesla
He's gonna take fsd and optimus and take it to a different company. He's gonna start a different company
It's really like a pretty delusional discussion. I think the entirety of it
And yeah, hopefully on the call you can just sort of clarify
Is it you know what he meant what he didn't mean here?
And you know, hopefully reaffirm his commitment to tesla
So just a couple of things because you know, like uh, first of all
Ross is a perfect example, right? Like here's a guy who tried to get on the board
Who tried to rally up shareholder?
Support against elon and what happened to him he got slammed because everyone loves elon, right?
essentially when elon is doing the things that uh
The shareholders give him their support and that's what happened like instead of ross
accomplishing anything he sort of like got
practically banned by the tesla community and like
He can hardly speak about tesla anymore without somebody slamming him. So
Uh, those things are already
Something that happens dynamically anyway now as far as like him getting paid for the job
Yeah, of course people should get paid for the job. But when um in traditionally
especially in tech the founder starts out with a huge amount of shares
And essentially starts getting diluted over time. It's just not
Normal for the founder to continue to get more and more shares over time
That's just the way it is. It has been
if you look at any of the companies that have been started by you know, whether it's jeff bezos or
You know pick your favorite founder it doesn't have to be you know, like one of my examples
They don't get additional shares in their companies by just continuing to work there. They usually get
They sell their shares over time and they don't complain about not being able to vote those shares that they have sold over time
This is this is the sort of like issue
That uh that I think a lot of people have raised is that okay. We're not talking about somebody who?
is merely a multi-millionaire, um and uh
And you know isn't compensated appropriately. We're talking about somebody whose last compensation plan
Uh was a hundred billion dollars and that hundred billion dollars is so unprecedented by like an order of magnitude
Or two that like no one in history has gotten that kind of pay
One of the things that omar you have said historically by the way
Is that tim cook is the greatest ceo ever?
Um much better than steve jobs even because he took the uh apple from a 200 billion dollar company to a three trillion dollar company
he gained over 2.8 trillion dollars of
Of shareholder value in in terms of the uh for apple shareholders, right?
But his entire net worth is 1.9 billion
So over the course of the 13 years that uh, tim cook has been ceo
He's gotten compensated at 1.9 billion and i'm not saying tim cook comes only 1.9 billion
Right, but compare that to a hundred billion and my point is that hundred billion his last uh options package was 60 billion
Okay, I mean it really annoys me like we're talking about 30 times
It really annoys me that people try and sort of slam this
You know a sort of unfair or evil. I think this is actually something i'd like to see emulated at more companies
I mean the deal is pretty simple. They said in 2018. Look, here's the share price today
We're gonna grant you options
To purchase shares worth up to 10 of the company at today's price
If you can meet these milestones
So, you know, the option has value obviously, but he still has to actually put up the cash
At the price that it was it was trading at when the plan was written
And buy the shares and he has to actually grow the company
You're talking about the 60 billion dollars in stock-based compensation. He got
You're forgetting about the 600 billion dollars in shareholder value that went into my pocket and soyer's pocket and so many other people in this space
So elon did not ask for money
I you know the first time you mentioned this I tweeted something about it
Amy said, you know, he needs to have a compensation plan and he replied to that. He said hey, that would be nice
That's how the discussion started
I mean this compensation plan
fantastic for shareholders
even after this correction and everybody crying and
Getting a job at mcdonald's. It's still above the 650 billion dollar target that everyone said was
laughably impossible at the time
Right in addition to that the two founders that you mentioned gates and bezos
Bezos hasn't done shit for amazon in a long time and it's been even it's been decades since bill gates did something for microsoft
Dude, but for the 20 years
No, no, i'm talking about when they were ceos, right? Like right, but they're not other companies now
That's exactly no no point though
They are not ceos anymore because i'm not talking about their compensation now
What i'm saying is when they were ceos their compensation was never uh, never like this, right?
Why is it not relevant then hameed that they are no longer ceos?
Does it not register that if they were compensated like this they might have stuck around?
No, because at some point everyone retires right like uh, at some point elon is also going to retire
Um, I mean it it doesn't make sense for him to continue
I mean he he'll do it until he doesn't want to anymore
Then he's already spent more time as ceo than either of those other ceos did
What are you talking about? Jeff Bezos started the company in 1990
Amazon in 94 and he was ceo until a year or two ago. So he was like, uh, ceo for
27 years or something like that. So
What you're saying makes absolutely no sense
Mark Zuckerberg is another ceo who doesn't get compensation basically like he his compensation is essentially non-existent
It's paying for his security and uh, private jet type of thing
you know most founder compensation is more around that as opposed to
As opposed to this massive stock option thing that uh
That is essentially money and cash out of
Out of the pockets of shareholders now
What omar is saying is technically correct in that like yeah, he's created shareholder value
But he was already doing that right like the compensation package also
Gave him almost forced his hand to go and sell 50 billion dollars worth of shares or 40 billion
Whatever it was that he sold
When when he sold a bunch of shares to pay his taxes and buy twitter
and that essentially caused
Like stagnate for quite a while now
The big question is what would have happened if he hadn't had that 100 billion or 60 billion dollar compensation package
Would he have not worked on tesla as hard as he did?
No, he was already doing that and in fact the products that tesla made were already in development when
and has released and have been highly successful have were already in development and have
In 2018 when he received that package. So
So my point is he's not driven by
But he he even agrees stock options don't give him voting rights
Because they're stock options. They're not actual shares
Um, so what what exactly are we solving here by giving him a bunch of uh, a bunch of potential stock options that are going to be worth
Hundreds of billions of dollars if the stock goes up. I mean, what is what exactly does that accomplish?
I mean you're using uh, like the former presidents to to
Evaluate what should happen in the future like exactly what penny was saying is it's spot on
What elon is doing is he's unprecedented and
The former compensation packages from other companies that are super traditional
They don't that's not necessarily how tessa needs to do this
If you think it was a traditional company, I mean like I don't know
Changed the world. I mean like jeff bezel has changed the world as a result of amazon and like
That's another person who i'm giving in an example that has never taken a compensation package like this, right?
It's just it's just not normal. It's it's not normal because these people are already the wealthiest people on the planet
At one point you say it's enough as shareholders, you know
What you were saying about fidelity
Like you know being diluted in all shareholders being diluted. Of course, that's what happens, but
Rebalancing of the shares. So, you know, i'm i'm curious what your answer is to to the thought experiment. I've I've posed
Like if you have five owners of a startup and and four of them are doing all the work
And and all five of them at the beginning allocated the same amount of capital
Like as as they bring on new shareholders if they're all getting diluted at the same rate
How does how do you know, how is that justifiable it's not at all
No, I don't think you redistribute the existing shares
I think you compensate the four that are contributing more with future packages that allow them to dilute slower
Well, it ends up diluting all shareholders, uh, all the existing shares
But if somebody is getting compensated they their percentage ends up going with shares their percentage ends up going higher
But all the existing shareholders get diluted. So yeah, that that is how it works precisely
Yeah, so like the this is what i'm advocating for in the case of a vellon's package
Like it, you know and and that fifth person of the startup example that I posed like they could
You know allocate more capital and and increase their ownership in the same way that fidelity would right now
But fidelity is not necessarily adding
They're not adding like a lot of value. I mean they you know, they'll help
Uh sell sell the stock basically like like sell the stock to others. Uh, and and
Gosh, the wording is so difficult here like they'll they'll buy shares
Okay, I guess market the stock
Let me let me let me put it this way
Like you're saying people should get compensated for the effort that they're putting in and what i'm saying is one man
Does not put in the effort of a hundred thousand people for the values that they're producing for the company
Yeah, but like what what is the like I I agree that elon is the best ceo who's ever existed and he he's amazing
But there's also a hundred thousand people at tesla who are behind him who are pushing tesla every day
And their entire the collection of that hundred thousand people's entire
Compensation package was not this not even remotely close to what elon got
As his compensation package for 2018
In my opinion as a shareholder
We would be better off with a compensation package that would keep elon happy to continue to stay at tesla
Because that is important. I do agree that he should stay at tesla and continue to be the ceo of it
But why don't we compensate the other hundred thousand people who are also pushing the envelope and uh and pushing the company forward
in such a way that's uh, you know rewarding the people who are doing the work and
You know, we know those people are going to vote with elon and if they are not then something is wrong because they're not voting with ross
Right, like they're not voting with ross gerber. So
I think it would be better
As it as a shareholder from my perspective for the other hundred thousand people to get better compensated as opposed to one person
And by the way, this one person can die at any time and all of that power goes to
There's also a risk that gets diffused by giving the power to the hundred thousand people as opposed to just the one person
So that would be my perspective as a shareholder. I'm a huge fan of elon as of tesla. I'm a shareholder
I've benefited from all of the share rise. I still continue to hold some some tesla shares
And I intend to add more as the as I think the price might have some bumpiness in the coming months
Compensation is kind of a weird thing for it to be like so lopsided to one person
So I might want to jump in here i've loved the conversation
We've had a couple of these and we'll continue to see what happens
But uh, I I really appreciate all the tesla folks that stuck around for some extra time here
Uh penny ryan christen omar and soya were on here for a while
I think we might uh go a little bit more general market now talk about a few more topics
But just much appreciation and it's great. You know, I think listen the audience so I see all the comments
But this is this is uh, this is a mellow conversation for most of the back and forth that you'll see on spaces
So I think we did a great job up here in comparison to some of the places that you see
So a big thank you to all of them
I am going to roll us into a little bit more of a general market talk here
And we've got nikki and shy and kim and others that have joined us on stage for that
We're going to get some of our portfolios pinned up top so you can see you know
How we are are we're all very bullish on tesla and you can see
Buy our portfolios where which are public which show how much tesla we own shout out evan
Um that as well, so we're going to keep this going here
And uh move into some more general market stuff
If that's okay with you hameed
Yeah, absolutely, let's do it. All right. Perfect. Okay cool shy. Let's kick into things
Uh, maybe quick thoughts on tesla as it kind of transition us here
And then if you want to kind of go a little bit broader market and talk to us about what else you're watching
Yeah, so regarding tesla, this is my top position. I want to continue for my dca plan for 2024
I've been increasing it. Um, I nearly doubled it already actually this year, but I want this to be a top five position for me
4 position I want that to be at least eight to ten and
I haven't added this week and it's primarily because their earnings are tomorrow and
I do think I heard everyone's like conversation about eon that just
thesis that he is a wild card at tomorrow's call like who knows what he's going to say and
Maybe the board is in budgeting and he wants to provide more leverage
Just bully them into what he wants and he might say something that would just really
Be off putting for the shareholders and this thing can go right to 184 185 which is where it's a pretty big volume shelf
so that's where I really want to beef up the position like right now I have a
7% cash position. I would drain half my cash position if
Tessa got in the 180s. So that's my conversation on test
I think that tessa would be a top three company in the world
The next decade and them being only about 800 billion dollars when apple and microsoft for nearly three trillion
That just shows how much runway they have in my thesis for the company
So I think it's being one side bagger even at these values and I want to continue adding but going over
Some perspective on what's happening this year or even today. I mean, it's been a bumpy, uh, january
thematic that's kind of leading the rallies and it's
And there's the ai thematic kind of goes in like two waves in my opinion versus hardware
Which is the semiconductor names you've seen the runs of
AMD like the whole sector is like roaring in 2024 super micro computers took your smci like they're all performing really well
Pre-announcing earnings their earnings are excel like they're doing really well in their prints
I'm still waiting on that second wave, which is software names. I really do think software names are gonna have like
a stupid amount of pricing power
After this ai thematic starts catching even more legs and balloting like to the clients of the roi if they use ai
Which I think is inevitable. I think it's gonna happen this year. It might not happen this year
But for sure gonna happen next year in my opinion
So as soon as that happens you have to be very specific on what kind of software names you want to invest in
There either there's gonna be like five billion dollar software names
I will go to zero due to ai or there's gonna be some software names that
become the best of brief software names that have the all in one platform or
That a lot of the clients will consolidate into those names
Because they have so many different features all in one specific platform
Those are the kind of names I like to invest in so that qualifies for like crowd strike data dog snowflake
Um pounds here like the list goes all in these kind of names
But that's kind of what i'm like adding to this year because i'm anticipating that second wave of ai
That's going to hit these software names because we've already witnessed it in semiconductors
And a big move I want to call out for today is snowflake
Take our sn ow like i've been saying like this needs to break 200 and when it does it's going to shoot up to like
They had a very strong move today like I think it was up like three or four percent when
A lot of the other comps or growth tech was in red
So clear buying that's accumulating today like it's i'm looking at right now
It's a 204 so I do think this is a name that's been basing for like 18 months two years and
It's clearly breaking out and it's happening with volume. I really it's all
All this move doesn't really matter that much to me until
Amazon reports their earnings because snowflake is directly linked to aws. So
Reiterates that business spending has bottom and optimization is just like behind them and
Uh, they're what they need to
That snowflake would be a biggest beneficiary of that and aws is like a good precursor of how that's going to happen
So that's what i've been noticing today. I mean not much action on I think there's a lot of macro data
That's coming out the rest of the week. So
Minimal action today i'm surprised we're not seeing more of a breather from semis like amd or smci
This ai thematic is freaking real and a lot of people don't want to sell these names because we're so
We're in the early innings of this thematic and a lot of people don't want to sell too early and especially when they're
And are validating something that's been talked about for a year or two and it's actually happening now
So they want to sell their winners because number one rule for me is let my winners keep winning
That's exactly what i'm doing to crowd strike my number one holdings up
140 for my average cost and right now it's
16 my growth portfolio i'm like I should trim but now i'm gonna let my winners keep winning
But i'll pass back to you because i'm taking too much time because to go back with some questions down the call
Sounds good. Appreciate you kicking us off here shy some great thoughts there
Excited to have nikki done on the panel. I want to bring the mic over to you and get your full thoughts on
How you've been approaching the market in 2024?
Hey, well, thanks for having me. I just want to do a mic check make sure you can hear me. Okay
Yep. Okay. Great. Yeah, um, it's been a while since i've been on one of your spaces
So a lot has happened since then a lot of people that don't follow me may not know
what my approach has been and how i've you know handled 2023 but
Um, i've put out a lot of content talking throughout
The data, you know as much as everybody thought recession was coming and the markets were going to crash in 2023
The data just wasn't showing that as much as we wanted wanted to find it
And the data continues to be strong in certain in certain areas like retail sales and
The unemployment data is exceptionally strong
So what I had done through 2023 is I was investing I was picking up stocks that were bottoming
I picked up a lot of retailers as well. I you know added alulu. I picked up target when everyone hated it
I was buying the market. Um
So I I feel like i've kind of approached this as best as I could but
That's leading to a lot of people asking the question. Well, what do they do now?
Um now we've got an the smp at all-time highs
Um, we've got the smp not exactly giving a lot of value considering where earnings are expected to be
this year, so people are wondering what the heck to do and
um, the fact of the matter is
2024 is going to probably just
Be one of those years where it's okay. If you think about it earnings expectations for 2024 are
positive actually 11 percent, uh year over year, which is
Really high earnings growth which we don't think is going to play out
So, you know the the flip side of that is you know
We do think that we could see a correction here
As earnings expectations come in because they're just so
Strong and in some ways unrealistically strong
Um, but of course the market can always surprise us but we're preparing
For essentially this market strength on the technicals in the smp to continue
Um, the the technicals are there the trend has been very sustainable as we've risen
Um, there's a lot of money market fun
Money that's probably going to be following in
Continuing to following into this market, but in a sustainable way interestingly enough
Um, so I think that we could see the market run higher
Uh, and whatever pullback or correction that everybody's waiting for and expecting to come
Um, it could simply come from higher valuations higher prices in the broad index. So I think that approaching
Uh the market from here if you're looking to you know, put capital to work
Um, you got to find the value you have to really it's a stock picker's market
You've got a dumpster dive and find the things that haven't run so much
In terms of the broad market this valuation here can be justified if you look forward
Um, but i'll kind of stop there that that's probably a lot in one breath
But anything you'd like me to elaborate on i'm happy to do so
Yeah, no, that was great nikki, I appreciate the high level run down there i'm curious hamid
Do you have any thoughts?
I know that I don't know if you've been on a space nikki before curious to get any thoughts or questions you have there
I I think the uh strategy that nikki was just describing is very much uh in line with my strategy
Which is you look for stocks that are getting hammered unfairly
But have great businesses and uh, and you know, you want to buy those ones basically
Buy what everybody else is selling if the company is solid and you've done your homework
Uh, and then uh, you know wait for them to eventually go back up which they almost always do so
Uh, I think that's a pretty sound strategy and it sounds like it's working really well for her. So love it
That's super cool. So nikki
Going through the rest of this year. Are there a couple of stocks?
That are in industries that you think are really going to make their mark. I think that we've talked a lot about semis
Cybersecurity being huge ones
Um, yeah, I mean all of that. I think tech is still eating the world, right?
There's no denying that the tech sector is something we should all be paying close attention to and investing
You know where we can find the best value and sometimes even the like look at invidia or many others
the valuations are high but the
future expectations and the
Just the opportunities are there in such a great way that even at these higher valuations in certain tech names
You almost kind of have to put something in your portfolio
Um, because it almost feels irresponsible because just the direction that technology is going
Um, but I think that tech is going to be big. I I i'm I am a retail
Investor and trader so I like the consumer discretionary
Sector personally, I do a lot of trading and investing in and out of these
peaks and trays that that we see
um with cycles and I think that
There that's been something i've really been focused on like, you know target got beaten down to a pulp
Lululemon ended up having a pullback. So i'll be looking to add to
certain consumer discretionary stocks
If the pullbacks come again because they've kind of run so i'll be watching the consumer discretionary sector just because that's my
My core competency, you know in the markets
So that's that's something that i'm watching as well
Especially as there's been a lot of doubt around around the consumer
There's been a lot of doubt
Around if student loan payments were going to stop retail sales from growing that doesn't seem to be the case
So there could be some diamonds in the rough that haven't gotten a lot of love like go look at abracrombie and fitches chart
This is one that I ended up buying
Many years ago i've been investing in this as a turnaround play for many years, but last year particularly
um, there was opportunity to to add to this position and
Look at what the chart has done. Like this is one that's been so under the radar that that
The returns on it have been it's been a multi-bagger crazy multi-bagger
So, um, I love finding those types of things things that people might not be so much paying attention to
Especially in a sector that everybody thinks is dead
But if you really die, you can really find some gems. So um, that's been my approach
I'll be continuing to look at tech. Um
I I bought meta when it was falling apart
Um over the over the past since 2022 basically, so that one's been a great one. Um, if it pulls back
It's probably one i'd love to add to and have more of everybody doubted it
But obviously it's not going anywhere anytime soon. So a lot of the tech names i'll be looking for pullbacks and
Also with the consumer discretionary sector, I think that there could be some diamonds in the rough there
I would love to hear before we keep it rolling around a little bit up here
If you had to give one piece of advice to retail investors for the rest of this year, what would it be?
Great question. Um, I would say you gotta be patient my motto. I work with retail investors specifically and
Um, my motto is trade less profit more, uh in this
Game or business or whatever you want to call it
Um, we are constantly tempted by action
And really how you make the money in this is by slowing down
Really making sure that you're pulling the trigger on a plus plays risk management is so essential
Um, so I would say right now things things are interesting. It's a stock picker's market
It's a trader's market if you know what you're doing
But also we have to be aware that there could be a pullback
Coming at any moment just based on how everything is is going down. So know your market environment. Yes things are bullish
Um, we are in a bull market
But stay patient and make sure you're hitting those home runs in a plus plays only
Beautiful nikki always great having you on here. I encourage people to go check out nikki's page
Uh great podcast as well called we talk money
All right, we're going to move a little bit around the panel up here
We're going to come over to the 400k investment project you run several portfolios that you share publicly on savvy trader
I'd love to hear from you how they've been going and what moves you've been making
Yeah, great. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it
Yeah, it's been a been an ugly start of the year for me for sure
I mean 2023 was fantastic both what was publicly shown from november onward and also like
Like the others, you know having bought at the beginning of 2023
Participated in the metas and the navidias and all that so
Yeah, it's been a very rough start for me
But i'm actually i'm more excited about it than anything because you know, it's it's a good reminder
I think to us all that the price you pay for upside is volatility
and you know, you you really need to embrace volatility to some degree because
Without it you're not going to get those asymmetric returns and for me
I'm a hundred percent about asymmetric returns, right i'm i'm really not buying something for a 15 annual return
That's not my that's not where I play. I just think there's so much incredible upside especially with the innovation that's going on right now
Um, we're in a almost a phase change with with regard to technology and ai and like I spoke about last time
For me, you know ai is such an incredible opportunity that
Is very difficult to participate in but but also just an incredible opportunity if you can find the places where you can really get
Direct exposure and and I still struggle with where you really get direct exposure, you know, ironically
I think tesla is one of the best places to get a bit of direct exposure. You know, you can't buy open ai
Through their supercomputing and their you know, they're planned to just like literally 20x. They're supercomputing over there over the coming years
Um, there really is an opportunity to participate in ai through tesla. It's actually interesting
I've been reworking my tesla model, uh lately
Yeah, it's just it's it blows my mind every time I do this right because right now
I'm i'm working through sort of the ancillary businesses as opposed to the core
And already, you know, i'm trying to be conservative and i'm coming up with 400 a share of a pv currently without even considering robotox taxi optimus
Or or much of the auto business as well. It's just it's it's absurd, right?
I feel a little bit like kathy woods, right?
It's like, you know, I try not to I try not to be
Um, you know too crazy with with where I come up with valuations on things, but it's just it's hard not to with tesla
Um, so so needless to say i'm loving the volatility here. I like to sell off i'll take it
Um, you know in my public portfolios, I own it from higher, but that's fine
Um, yeah, it's to me. There's just an incredible opportunity there. Then you start looking around at small caps
I noticed some of the people in the audience here follow eos, which is one of my favorites
It's it's an unbelievably, you know asymmetric opportunity going forward. It's eos energy
And what they do is they provide where they build grid grid level, uh battery storage much like tesla's mega pack
In fact, there aren't a lot of other players producing mega pack type products and essentially that's what eos does
Um, they've been treated like a like a bankrupt company recently
You know major major risk really has been dilution and then they have diluted shareholders a lot
Um, but but the long run again in my model, you know
I've worked been working on that a lot of my models and i'm coming up with about a fourteen dollar pv right now
Using a 30 discount rate on eos i'm getting 14
Dollars a share and it's about a dollar for right now. So again, just incredible upside opportunity. Um, asymmetric opportunity
Yes, dilutions, you know continues to be a risk
But there's just there's so many fantastic opportunities right now that i'm just i'm really just frothing with excitement over
Over some of these things and I could go on and on about all the different things that I think are amazing and very interesting
Right now, but as I say, funnily enough, it's been, you know, pretty rough start to the year
But that doesn't bother me at all. I mean i'm a long-term investor and I love asymmetric opportunities
It's been a fantastic few years for me to the upside and uh, yeah, my portfolio
Has has been enjoying uh, join this and I just I look forward to the future here. So yeah, i'll pass the mic
Do you have any names that you're kind of tentative on adding right now based on you know, kind of where the
The other one that i've mentioned before is a novix
I mean a novix is just to me is unbelievable as well. They're they're doing consumer level batteries again
They've basically come up with a step change in battery technology
Um, their management team is incredible from you know, you go through and look at where the people come from at that company
Their the step change is so critical to to companies like apple for example
You look at their new vision pro, right?
It's it's it's limited by battery
And and so and novix is one of the very very very few that actually have a new battery that that really does provide higher
It's just a fantastic product by by all accounts at this point
So so that one I can't believe it's trading at nine dollars. It was a 20 stock, you know, six months ago or so
Um to me, there's just an incredible amount of upside there my model. I have that
PV'd at what do I have it at?
You know and it's nine dollars today
That that's definitely one. Uh, I could go on and on there's just so many things that I think are just incredibly interesting right now
Um, you know, the other the other sector just in general is solar to me solar
You know, if you look at mckinsey's reports and whatnot
They're looking they're expecting about a 15 fold increase in solar over the next decade or so
Solar and battery combined again white eos is so interesting to me
Because they have massive industry tailwind and then you've got yeah the solar companies themselves like the end phases and the uh
Solar edges of the world are just really really cheap given the industry tailwinds
And and then the ira credits are just unbelievable as well
I mean, I think m phase is looking at like a billion dollars in ira credits a year going forward
Like it's it's it's madness the valuations to me. But anyway again, i'll leave it but uh
Lots of interesting stuff out there to say at least so
Really well put there. Yeah, I think there's a lot of opportunities and I like the way that you think
um, you know, hey, this is not a
Beaten down and battered a portfolio but rather a portfolio
That is ready to go ready for additions and never hurts, you know
I think this is the beauty of always having uh, some cash on the side and cash is not trash for sure
I will note to the like if you guys I don't again, I don't want to go too deep here
But on youtube I will actually be posting a bunch of my valuation work as I go forward here
And that's that's what i've been working on a lot lately
You know proving all that out really carefully before I go, you know post it all on youtube
But if you if you're interested follow me there and then you can sort of see how i'm coming to these numbers, of course
All right. Thanks 400k always good having you on and if you have those portfolios posted feel for you pin them up in the space
And uh, we can show people what they are missing out on
Yeah, absolutely. Okay, uh coming over to mr. Mike. Saul for any updates on your program
Hi, yeah, nice to be here
Um, hi everybody. I love listening to uh, this is one of my favorite spaces of the week
I love listening to uh, a lot of smart people, you know, I I always have a
There's a saying right you never want the best looking house on the street
well, the second thing is you never want to be the smartest guy in the room and uh
I am definitely not the smartest guy in this room, which is good
Because that's the only way you learn and uh, I I really like the the uh people you put together for these. So anyway
That's enough for that. Let's talk about what's going on in the market here. I mean we're chopping around
For the most part. I think we're waiting on the first fed decision, which is probably going to be a
A no-move looks like the the odds that it's going to happen again and have
A rate cut in march looks under 50 now
so, you know my questions for the year are
Plentyful which i'm sure a lot of people are thinking of also
As far as you know, just get a broad a broad view. I guess it's called macro, but it's not technically the macro, right?
I mean there's layoffs are still coming in inflation is still sticking around
Um, you know a lot of layoffs are coming like under the radar for lack of a better word, you know whole, uh
Inflation that is still keeping their grip on the consumer
So far i'm not saying it's gonna last but we had the the whole bitcoin ETF
Oh, this is great and it's gonna ramp bitcoin and it hasn't done that yet
I don't know if it's gonna turn around so i'm not i'm not calling for the death of bitcoin or anything like that
But you know, is that another rug pull on consumers?
Right, uh, you know who is who front ran?
The bitcoin price up into the announcement of vtf's is it retail is an institutional right institutional?
A lot of people like to say boo-hoo, but you know, what if it's the retail, you know, the retail gets
You know hoodwinked again, or are they just holding forever?
You know all this plays into how the market acts. I were at all time highs, which is great
Um, you know usually after you know, usually that's a sell point, right?
I'm not talking about a sell short point, but usually
When we see new highs people like to take profits like to ring the register a little bit
Uh, but you know, it doesn't mean we're going to crash
But we should be pulling back or pausing and and the in my opinion
What we really need to to see is what happens after that first first pullback?
Because okay, we got to highs i've been calling for highs for months and we and the market finally obliged, right?
We finally we finally got to the new highs
But you know the next move in my opinion is the most important one like do we?
Rotate and then you know, do we correct or do we sell off or do we just pause?
And people use that as a stepping stone to get on board and run, right? We have
The wild card is whether they try to whether they try to get trumped in court and find them guilty before
Uh the primaries or whatever. I don't know if that's gonna happen. Probably not gonna happen
Um, you know what's gonna happen there? I I you know, and then you have to look at the gray swans, right?
A lot of people call them black swans, but if you could talk about them, they're technically not black
Black swans are the are the events that happen that you never could think of so, you know some of the things that
You know in my opinion are important to consider is the age of the
Two candidates right it's biden and it's probably going to be trump. What if something happens along those lines?
I'm not wishing it on either of them
They're human beings and their fathers and grandfathers, etc. So they and husbands so they
You know, I don't wish they're still human beings
Even though sometimes they they don't act like they are a lot of people forget that they are
Uh, but you know, what if a health concern comes up what happens then what gets thrown into the wildfire there?
That what if the fed comes out with
Yeah, look we never said we were going to start cutting rates and I think a lot of the market
You know the market move especially into the end of the year was the anticipation was you know
A lot of people said powe capitulated
Well, you know, what if he comes out and says look, I never said I said we were going to look at it
I never said we were going to do it
You know, does that add weakness as well?
right, so I just think there's a lot of just broad factors and then
you know a lot of people call this a
A stock picker's market and I do too. So i'm gonna i'm gonna lie i'm gonna
I'm gonna give him some self-hatred, right? I hate that term, but I use it too
But I mean in my opinion it it's always a stock picker's market, right?
If you want to be the average you throw your money in the spy and you call it a day, right?
So in my opinion if you're looking for alpha if you're looking for our performance
Then, you know, it's always going to be a stock picker's market
I of course love the idea of looking at beaten down stocks that have solid
businesses that have potential catalysts coming in my portfolio
My biggest holding on the on my main portfolio on savvy trader, which is holding up, uh rather well despite
Taking taking some smacks lately like I had spirit airlines, but a very small position
But my biggest position is hess because I still think that in my opinion offers the best merger arb opportunity
It's probably probably gonna happen. Does that mean definite? And you know, we all saw what happened?
Uh, you know with figma adobe and we all saw what happened with spearing and jet flu
So i'm not saying that that's absolutely gonna happen
But you got stocks like hess and you know, I have like florin decor, which is a very solid business
uh was charlie monger's second favorite stock after
Uh costco, you know that has a lot of similarities
So if you want to look at it, the name of the portfolio is uh, I think it's either swings and things or things and swings
I don't know my dyslexia kicks in but uh, you know, it's it's a small concentrated portfolio
Uh, that's the way I like to do things. I like to you know, it's very tough to
You know in my opinion stay on top of 30 40 50 and above stocks
Uh, you know that turns in more into a mutual fund
So I like to kind of keep it into a concentrated portfolio my stock uh play of the year
Edu c is in there also as well as a couple others. So it's definitely a mixed
A mix, uh, there's definitely some diversification there unity software is one that you know, they're having problems
They just had some layoffs. They need a ceo, but boy that looks like a beautiful base
In my opinion if if that's this that starts to get some kindling that starts to get some interest
We could see a nice breakout there. Uh, so that's what i'm watching at, you know, not financial advice it could stay
Sideways for a long time, right? Like a lot of people like to quote the um
Quote the phrase a trend is your friend
Uh, you know the trend is your friend until it ends
Well, you know a lot of people think that a trend is only up or down. There's a third trend which which is sideways
And the market or stocks in general we're talking about stocks in general here can go sideways for a lot longer
Then you anticipate right and if you're an option buyer that can whittle away your account
As premium gets sucked dry, but if you're buying the commons, it's just a patience game
it's just sitting there and waiting and you know making sure you understand your risk and
You know being patient with with a lot of positions. So that's what i'm looking at here
I think there's a lot of potential gray swans that can stick their
Do and a course of volatility in the market, but you know volatility could be a friend especially if you're a short-term trader
So that's it. I rambled on long enough. Thanks as always for having me on my wolf
Always a pleasure mike. So great to have you on and I like your thoughts. I like how you go about your portfolio. Don't uh
Huh, there's a great line at the end of I just finished the show ballers
And one of the guys on there is a defensive tackle for the cowboys and they basically make them down to be dummeled
The whole show and it's like the final episode
They basically show that like he was the one who was like definitely pushing some strengths and stuff
And one of the other guys goes when did you turn out to be the smartest one in the room?
then he goes when I started acting like the dumbest
And uh, so I just want to say mike saw out here. He's a wild card. Keep an eye out for him
All right, let's go over to what uh, jason and then we will wrap things up with kim
Jason any updates on your end for the things that you're looking at. Hey, thanks for having me. Uh, you know
It's been a great discussion already. I appreciate uh, what everybody said and I really enjoyed I can't remember who said it
It was either 400k portfolio
but somebody mentioned that when you have
Volatility like this is some volatility is so important and to understand that like you have to have volatility
Have a great portfolio or have great returns in general and it's something that as portfolio managers
Our clients all the time, you know, like do you want there in futures with me in futures? It's going to be volatile at times
Um, and so to understand that we're going to have a volatile portfolio
But this is how we create returns if we have no volatility most likely we're just sitting in cash
Uh, and if we have some volatility things happen some years we have really great years of very low volatility
Some years we have a little bit more
Um starting out this year has been fine, but it's just been flat
You know, we're up a percent. We're down a couple percent
It's just been over and over all month long, which is completely normal at the beginning of the year
Um, I really try not to get too deep into my analysis in the first month of the year
Because I really want to see what that range looks like the calendar range for january
Um, the phrase as january goes, uh, so goes the year is really important
It's actually a true phrase, uh that works about 84 84 percent of the time
and when we're looking at the market and just that
Little window of going. Hey, what's going on in january? That's something that can at least help me to go
Okay, my risk is here. This is what i'm looking for this next month
So I have positions on but it's not something that i'm really like
uh putting my foot on the gas until we get a little bit further in the year and really, you know, I think of
Everything right now is looking really interesting and we're looking also
You know everybody keeps and the thing that keeps coming from my clients and subscribers is china
You know, everybody wants to buy china
And I understand like there's some things in there that look really really good
However, it's like for me when there's so much risk and something is just breaking down day after day week after week
And nobody exactly knows why most of the time. I think that we will know why at some point
Uh great quote from bruce kubner that was in the first market wizards talks about that a little bit which is
That he basically has a trade in the us dollar and the canadian dollar and he waits for it to break one direction or another
Um to kind of understand the direction it goes and he also talks about in that
And if you guys have read that book, it's talks about um, the russian, uh, russia being great traders
And basically what he's trying to say is that people?
Somebody somewhere knows something so sometimes things that are moving in a really crazy way
Or down in a really crazy way over a amount of time like
You don't know like the last time I saw something breaking down to a crazy level over and over again
That was russia and that was before it got delisted
So, you know for my clients, we're just kind of staying away from china. However
If you look at emerging markets x china
There's actually some strength there. And so there's some interesting developments this year in international stocks and so on but once again the us is still
Looking good. It's still really strong. We're still long
The nasdaq we're long the small caps
Um, so we're long a lot of things in the us still at the moment. So we're gonna stay on that route
For now, but looking at the commodities we actually got long a few of them at the beginning of this month
And then a few later the ones that we recently got long, um were lumber
Um, we also got long cotton. That was just yes or two days ago
And then we got long, um cattle a week or two ago
And that's a feeder cattle
And then lean hogs also along along in there as well sugar got uh had a false breakdown signal
So we're starting to get a lot of these commodities ticking up. We also talked about the trade yesterday that we had
basically taking options on the
And the march contract in crude oil
So we're also trading long call options at that on the crude oil contract
so just kind of looking at in kind of being kind of surprised for me because really
Commodities didn't look that good at the beginning of the year and it wasn't an area
I thought we would get many signals in coming into the year
Once again, it's part of the reason why like I do my macro models, which are completely fundamental
But I also have my signals
And my signals kind of tell me things that are happening usually before they happen the market is forward looking
I don't have to understand and I can't say how everybody else on here makes money
But for me, I feel like I can't understand why everything is moving the way it is sometimes
So my signals kind of help me to front run that and so I can get into positions and not really know
100% why or how they're moving but they are I mean the middle east is somewhere that's very important to understand right now
There's a lot of stuff going on
I think there's a lot of upside risk in some of those commodities due to the situation that's happening
So I think it's easy to kind of play it in a hey 1% of our portfolio now is going to be in call options on oil
I think it's a very simple way to play it that way you're not, you know, i'm not fomoing trying to get into a trade
Which I I don't do anymore, but also the options were so cheap on oil
Considering all the risks that was going on
Lumber's having a nice big move up today. So it's been interesting in the commodities market
Very interesting now getting into
Just the sectors now if we look at the u.s sectors, we're seeing that
Technology on a three month basis technology is still heavily leading the way
real estate right behind that
financials and then industrials
And so it's kind of interesting where everybody, you know, so many people were betting against the banks
And the thing that I see all the time is people are always fighting the last war go back to 2008
They go. Okay, 2008 happened. It was the banks last year in february is the same thing
It was the banks and so there wasn't relative strengths in the banks at the time
That's when these people on the panel are all talking about getting long tech because we all saw there was relative strength
There was reasons why tech could move a lot higher there and it continued not to mention just sentiment was so bearish at that point
It was insanely bearish for you know
This moving into an uptrend and all the relative strength that you saw in that sector
So tech continued to do very well now we're kind of seeing some resilience in the financials
So we're also long the financials and the xlf at the moment large cap
So, you know looking at all those it's just been quite interesting and looking at the the dollar at the moment
It's kind of the the wild card
Because if there's a russian of the dollar that's the thing that's going to put a lot of pressure on just about everything
so at the moment we're seeing a lot of
Money kind of money kind of flowing into the dollar and futures at the moment
Commercial buying is high producers are high
So basically when we're looking at that we're going okay. Well, that could be an interesting
Set up so something to watch for that's where the risk is for us at the moment being long some of these commodities
So have to keep an eye on the dollar
Um small caps were interesting the other day. I wm
Had a big gap up with a lot of volume
And it's kind of continued the next day right after that. I think that was tuesday
Yep, jason. Just want to jump in. I want to give kim a few minutes here at the end
We got a hard stop at the top of the hour
Um, go ahead. Why don't you go ahead? I i'm i'm good on that
Yeah, you're and I know you're gonna be out with us later today as well in an hour
It's fine. You guys i'm always on with you. So thank you so much. Uh wolf and it's great to hear everybody
I'm just going to talk about one stock about that that I haven't talked about in a while and that is city ticker c
Um the previous speaker i'm sorry. I don't remember your name
Um was talking about the financials
And I like to talk about things that I use and what's kind of user friendly to me
And cities had a new ceo today. I think they're laying off
20 000 people but how is that relevant to how I use city?
Um their credit cards use them for banking
Well one specific thing that I love that they're doing right now
So first of all because I own costco I use the I use the um
I use my city costco card, right? So I get my cash back there
I love that big gift certificate at the end
That I get for with my city card and get to go on a big huge shop for free essentially
I guess not free but um, but also what they're doing now is I opened up my city app the other day
And it said do you want you know because I made a bunch of purchases. We had gone to disneyland
I went shopping to costco. It was christmas and it has do you want to put?
You know this purchase from costco this purchase from disneyland on buy now pay later essentially
And it's asking me right in my statement of my credit card on my city app
And i'm like wow, so I click on it everything at costco there's no fee
So the 800 purchase I made at costco if I didn't want to pay it off with my city card
Which I I mean at the end of the month I would have normally paid that off
But i'm like well, wait a second and I look no fee three months. Hmm. That's really interesting. I like that and it's like
Then about two weeks after that I could still decide to do that
So it was keeping this open for it's been like three weeks now
Here's the purchases that you could do on buy now pay later
So i've already made them and then it's after you've made them it asks you
Do you want to do this now with some of the other like the disneyland or whatever there were fees associated with it?
Um, you know, I bought my daughter for christmas my older ones. She likes designer stuff
I bought her those what are those red sole bottom shoes lubitons or whatever?
I don't have them but I got her a pair
And so that popped up on there and i'm like hmm
I didn't end up doing that one, you know
I'll just pay it off because I didn't like the fees on it, but that to me
Is going to be competing and that to me will cause me to use my city card even more
I'm long city. That was my whole point
Perfect. All right. We're right here
At 2 p.m. Eastern. I gotta actually jump to another space
It's always hard because there's so much good content and great people on stage
But make sure you're following everybody that's up here and of course going into savvy trader.com and checking out the portfolios on there
Hamid do you want to give a final comment before I close this one out?
Um, I appreciate it wolf. I did pin my portfolio to the top if anybody's interested in seeing what I hold
Um, we've added a lot of really cool features to savvy trader including a button
We call the what if button so if you go to a portfolio and click the what if button you can see what?
Like what if you had invested x dollars like ten thousand dollars or one thousand dollars or whatever you want to change it to ten million dollars
In a given portfolio. What would it look like today?
Um based on you know past time frames that you can also choose
So check out the what if feature check out savvy trader in general feel free to give me feedback
We're always making improvements. So appreciate you guys. Thank you
Thanks, everybody. All right
Heading over if you're in here come with us to jordan space
We're gonna be over there talking about ai trading all good stuff. We'll see everybody in a minute there with the prospero team