uh the the there was an earthquake last week in bangkok right so it threw like a major wrench
in everything like and there's a lot of high rises in in bangkok so a lot of cracks and condos and
some people are like super worried other people just like continuing like nothing ever happened so like the main org from southeast asia blockchain week they they i think their venue um
might not have been able to to proceed with events right it was like in uh
you said it's still open yeah but i heard that all types of events got canceled there
yeah and they had you know actually i was um i was speaking to someone and she said like she
went to a concert just recently so they have like actual events at the specific venue in that
building that the conference was supposed to be at but um yes yeah okay so then it's not
maybe some insurance thing or i i don't know what uh the reason is for the main event being
canceled because the venue's fine um yeah they have like events there right now so but but yeah
we have some good side events so it's all good that's the thing right i think like despite
everything it's been like a super solid week like uh still lots of side events good turnout a lot
of people came i think a lot of people like already had everything booked and were like you
know what fuck it i'll just go like that was the case for me right so a lot of clips of the um like the infinity pools and oh oh you did everyone in their
condos like frightened seeing the pool going everywhere but i think myanmar had it really bad
i think yes that's a different story and um just shows doesn't it mother nature
keeps moving just like some of the blockchains never stop running
yeah for sure um i mean same for the for the for the conference right the conference also keeps
running so but did you guys feel anything?
I mean, yeah, you can kind of see my building in the background.
They have to come inspect a high is your building a couple times
tomorrow yeah but my building is like it's mostly fine but the building next to me got wrecked
uh so someone told me that like the area i mean is it was like a bad i don't know it's like the
central area and like a lot of buildings got hit and i got lucky so i got some inspector how many
stories how many stories is your building
i think that's pretty like like that's the crucial factor oh it is quite high then actually
uh yeah a little bit so i don't know um but yeah i mean i'm chilling like
But yeah, I mean, I'm chilling.
I'm sure most of CT are not only tariff experts, macro experts, but probably geological experts.
so you can find some great
So you can find some great advice.
i uh i spoke to some some people here uh some builders and stuff who live here in bangkok and
some of them some of them were shook like i spoke to two people actually left bangkok
literally literally yeah no i mean you i think like i'm not going to say like they're overreacting but like
something like some people like especially like where i live there's like a lot of chinese and
like they're really if there's like a slight inconvenience like they're out you know what i
mean like they have a high standard i guess um maybe i think like the western people tend to be more like
nonchalant like just just don't care yeah yeah like the show goes on i mean if somebody like
if inspection comes and they say it's not safe hey by all means for sure um but otherwise just like leave it to the professionals and uh yeah stay chill man
stay calm and carry on um on that note we should carry on as well um i'll uh i'll kick up the show
proper proper so uh fourth episode already guys we were talking about this um market cap if you're
tuning in on x or youtube we're live on youtube now as well which is great
uh welcome back to market cap like i said fourth episode and we're gonna get into some things
we do this weekly to you know talk about the i mean recent events in the market the price action
trending narratives things of that nature,
but especially like try to add like an interpretation layer, right? So like talk
more about like, okay, what does this actually mean? What does it apply? What can we expect
going out from here? So yeah, with that, we're like I said, we're doing this weekly. We do this
with team members. Next week, we'll have on our first guests from D Factor and RWA.io. So we're going to talk a bit more about RWAs on that episode. So that should be fun.
and token thesis primarily and we got d analyst and our regular podcast contributor
and um yeah guys let's get into it this market cap so let's go um what are we going to talk
about first guys i think what the ebtc thing or are we going to get into tears i think
i mean each btc has been painful enough so it depends which pain you want to go for first right
if btc all the tariffs nuking our bags so it's both painful choices maybe you want to skip this episode like all together like
yeah great episode see you next week guys
awesome um yeah so wait what are we looking at ebtc i'm on a very small screen this week also um
guys so yeah so ebtc is hitting uh hitting a five-year low right um a bit different from
what we've seen in past cycles uh where we really saw like a growth phase after having of uh btc but yeah this time
it's different etc just continues to weaken um what's going on dudes
do you want to yeah first yeah so you know i think a big part of it is you know in the previous cycles i mean notably the last cycle you know
eth was still utilizing the proof of work system and whilst you know people complained about how
high it made gas fees you know it wasn't good it it still create because it was so bad right and gas fees went so high and people were happy to pay them
during nft mania it really in my opinion it did create this sort of feedback loop for eth as an
asset right because you had all these mints gas fees would shoot through the roof people would
pay transaction fees in eth a portion of the eth would be burned there was a big demand
right but now you know with nft mania cooling off and we haven't seen anything close to like
what we saw in the previous cycle factored in with this move to proof of stake which at the time you
know it was like this new paradigm you know pos was gonna change eth it's gonna be the world computer which you know
it might still well happen instead what we saw was actually you know proof of state came and
there weren't people driving that demand there weren't users using applications on eth they were
instead we just got more l2s you know know, optimism, arbitrem, the list is endless, right?
So rather than more users and more applications, we got more L2s.
And I think ultimately the fragmentation is a huge problem.
And, you know, is there really a need for as many L2s as there is?
Or could all that activity probably have been done on, I don't know, an official Ethereum foundation L2 as opposed to all these different ones?
So I think ultimately that was probably one of the biggest reasons why this time has been different.
At the same time, you saw the rise in Solana.
Well, not the rise, but the rebirth after the fallout of FTX.
And people, you know, moved over.
A lot of people moved to Solana.
And there was this big sort of push and pull,
this cycle of the guys who were early in ETH,
who made a lot of money, bought ETH around $100 $200 2019 2018 who
were sort of in almost these people like to say ivory towers you know looked down why
would anyone use any other L2 ETH is the best but then with the meme coin mania we saw on
Sol it was kind of reminiscent in a way of the NFT mania that we had on ETH it was kind of reminiscent in a way of the nft mania that we had on eth it was driving demand
driving transaction fees so ultimately i think that was the big disconnect this cycle which is
why we've seen this underperformance that's very good context that really makes a lot of sense
and and paints a picture of why this time is different like you said
um daniel what are your thoughts
yeah i mean i mean this week isn't like i don't think that this week is anything special for
eptcs like yeah just confirming a trend that's going on for a while um it's just not a good week
for crypto in general so like yeah go figure that uh one of the big trends which is more
institutional interest in btc and then like no interest in eth would you know continue to play
out um continue to prop up btc prevent it from falling as much while ETH falls more.
And yeah, I mean, I don't even think it's like a big, it's not even like, how do I explain it?
It's not even necessarily that like ETH itself is so, it's like doing something completely wrong.
I mean, the foundation could be more involved.
Yeah, I think like you brought up having an official L2, even stuff like that could be more involved. Yeah, I think you brought up having an official L2.
Even stuff like that could be interesting,
even if it's kind of a gimmick, kind of just for show.
They probably should be more involved,
directly involved with their ecosystem.
I think that was their biggest, yeah, in 2022,
that was their biggest strength.
They had a very avid ecosystem.
Yeah, that was the spot to be right and now it's kind of like stagnated hasn't like yeah
it's the things like athena and i can layer um but other the growth on other chains has been much more
so i mean i think it's like if you want to get exposure, like world computer doesn't have to be Ethereum, right?
Like there's other chains that have smart contracts.
So if you want to get exposure to that narrative, like you don't have to buy ETH.
Like you don't even have to buy L2s.
You can buy all sorts of things now, right?
And you could in 2021 as well.
But it wasn't like you did the eth killer narrative in
2021 and yeah i mean after the bear market um people like if people want to get exposure to
the idea of like smart contracts are going to run you know the world financial system you don't have
to buy eth you can like buy all sorts of of things. You can invest privately in these new things, right?
You have Mega ETH and Monad.
You have all these things.
You had Sway, Aptos that didn't even exist in 2022 yet.
So there's all sorts of ways to get allocated to that narrative
And yeah, I think that the ethereum foundation just
didn't they didn't like put themselves out there enough to make a reason why like people should
stick to just aetherium so naturally it's like it's kind of like the nba it's like if someone
wanted to invest in the nba you can't buy like an nba stock or something right there's like 32 teams i think now um so people buy you know
chunks of these teams some do better than others right you have like a few big ones like in new
york and california that are uh worth more than the others and yeah it's not so whereas in the
past a theory of like it was like the only viable vehicle like to be allocated to that idea
of uh like the world's finance coming to smart contracts right so it's just not the case today
though we haven't seen like maybe like a real real eth killer it's almost like eth uh slowing
slowing uh i mean it comes close
but no one has crowned them the ETH killer
yet I think but it's more like they're
dying like a death by a thousand
yeah I mean no one will crown them the
Ethereum killer like there's not going to be like a moment
like on a specific day where it's like
beat them it's like it's something that
you don't know it happened until like five years after.
You know, maybe sometime around like this period of time
It's when Solana started to surpass Ethereum.
Like, I'm not even saying it happened yet,
but I'm saying that's like the clear contender, obviously.
And then, yeah, like in hindsight,
people look back and it seems more obvious like, right.
So, yeah, Solana is clearly like it has activity.
Like when it comes to retail and users, yeah, Solana definitely seems like the spot to be.
Like if you had to choose one chain today, like to launch on for like some kind of application
where like you're onboarding users
you're trying to get users to like pitch in their money play around with money like you would choose
solana that that's why do you but hasn't solana hasn't solana feared too much into direction of
the like the casino and they're kind of like paying the yeah the price for that now but that's
like the market is turning that that's what crypto is right now so like if crypto changes and like
it's less of a casino and more like like if everyone decides that like rwas are like the
next big like casinos are done like they're not valuable anymore it's all about rwas
you'll probably see a lot of rwa stuff
popping up on solana you kind of already are a little bit um you have a few but yeah so i like
whatever whatever the big thing is in crypto at any given time like i think it'll just go to the
fastest chain that has like a like a good uh like a jack of all trades yeah like salon is fast
you can use it it's pretty fast has like you know good ux a good a good wallet good wallet provider
um good amount of users and like not as much capital as ethereum but a lot of capital like
it can move around and yeah a lot of liquidity it's like yeah it's a good jack of all trades
right when in ethereum it's like you just have a ton of money on there but it doesn't it's not
like flowing around into new projects like there's not like a massive meme ecosystem right it's just
it's like one the one thing it has a bunch of money on it and that's kind of it and yeah so maybe another
chain can come along um and be a better jack of all trades than solana but yeah for now
looks looks like uh solana's the place to be
for sure uh d what about you like because a lot of people have more of a thesis that's like, oh, we're going to see specific chains for specific use cases like RWA chains, like Converge was announced, things of that nature. Do you agree with this, what Daniel just, the picture that that he painted or do you think there will be
more specialized chains i think it's tricky to say at the minute i mean you know as easy as it is to
sort of bash on ethereum you know with how bad its downtrend against bitcoin has been there are there
are still some merits you know to the chain itself you know it's obviously it's never had down time you know i know
people like to meme about solana going down or it's just an sql database and these things not
that i believe it just examples of what people have said in the past and i guess you know there
is that belief i guess that you know if there is large tokenization of assets and tokenization
of treasuries, are they going to house it? Where is it going to be housed? Is it going to just be
these financial institutions own blockchain, their own layer two? Or, you know, will something like
that bring the renaissance of ETH that all this large amount of big capital, you know, not just, you know, when people get happy that their DEX hit 100 million TVL.
Is it just going to be large swathes of capital that move on to Ethereum?
And I'm not sure if that you'll necessarily see specific chains do specific things because you know how many apps have we seen or
chains have we seen that say you know like blast for example you know blast came out and it was
like you know you your eth is earning as soon as you deposit and then they deposited people's eth
into lido or your stables were put into some of the lending protocols you know that was seen as a new
revolutionary idea yeah that that that was the thing for about one one minute yeah that was the
big thing and that was crazy and then i think you know we've had that people come and try and do new
things i mean avax was seen as like the gaming chain but you know you it's easy
to say we're going to be this chain we're going to be this chain but then if no one's actually
using it or depositing any money onto it it doesn't matter if you're a specialist and i think
the intention of blockchains at its core you know i remember in the early days you know before there were any
defy before there was any apps you know when eth was still really really basic and they had all
these different projects that said they were going to do all these things like there's one called
gollum i maybe you remember it they were doing i can't even remember what they're doing that's an og and that's my old yeah right and i remember
reading books right about blockchains and stuff i was so excited they're talking you know we're
gonna get rid of lawyers and bigger smart contracts are gonna do all these things
but then i guess because the gamblers and speculators showed up first. Not, of course, that's gonna happen.
I think until we see this sort of,
maybe the big push with AI that's gonna destabilize
some of these white collar jobs,
maybe that leads this renewed push
to the smart contracts can do jobs
that like notaries or solicitors do.
Then I think, you know, some of these big smart contract platforms
like ethereum will have their day but i'm not sure i'm so sold that one chain will do one thing
unless it's like a private blockchain like hyper ledger or i know sony has their own blockchain right so what do they even use it for you know saying yeah I mean
the thing um like for certain one second let's cases no go ahead go I think it's good if we
backtrack a second and and and maybe talk a little bit more because we're already getting like deep into the
yeah yeah we went off stuff oh sorry no no i mean i no i threw i threw the tension in there
uh because like i i was i was honestly surprised about like the stake on this but um to backtrack
a little bit and to to keep talking a bit more about like where the market's currently
at and why that might be uh i think it might be good to to touch a little bit about our uh our
friend uncle trump um is he your friend right now like i don't know if he's your friend anymore um
i don't know i i don't think he's anyone's friend i saw too much red yeah maybe if i saw
more green i would consider him a friend but um yeah so right now a little bit too yeah yeah when
the fear and greed index is like that sorry he's he's not a friend now maybe next month right
that that's kind of how it works but yeah let's get into like his announcement right which was
wow i mean we've been talking about it a lot for the last couple weeks of course the tariffs
but then you know and it's funny because like daniel you were saying like at some point it's
it became kind of like uh you know the market just starts shrugging it off because, oh, this is another week, another tariff.
But now he upped the ante with bringing out like a chart.
Yeah, he brought out an IRL chart as well.
Like what you're saying on the screen, he brought it out in real life.
So, I mean, this is out of control.
Yeah, I mean, they went the extra mile.
Like, yeah, you can see here,
they're outlining the rates for these very small countries.
Yeah, same case and like a lot
some of our listeners might not even actually be familiar with places like in the caribbean
um but yeah these are the main ones yeah yeah these are the main ones um i mean yeah like you
you can see it right there it's not like it's not rocket science what they did. They just like took. Yeah, they just took the US. They took the deficit that the US had with with each country and just divided it by the US exports from that country. And that was there. And they just cut that number in half. And that was the tariff so it's not yeah i mean it's a pretty simple it's pretty simple like i don't
know like i'm not even going to say if it's like a good or a bad thing to keep it simple like that
i mean obviously like if you're going to do a tariff you should probably do it right and like
yeah punish the countries that um are affecting you more.
So yeah, obviously the big boys, like China,
it's kind of funny, he lumped every single country
in Europe together, in the EU together.
They're only worth caring about
if you stack them all up together.
Otherwise, it's not a big deal.
That was pretty funny to me.
like germany france like put it and then you have like cambodia in the top 10 like stand standing
alone like that that's that's pretty interesting um yeah i mean it's pretty it's pretty high like
it might take a while is uh the impact uh of this like on goods like clothes yeah yeah yeah
stuff like that so is it gonna be different this time because it's like such a i mean it's not one
or two countries you know but like i mean it should be it's gonna be different um well i mean
you you can look at the race, like, super high.
So, yeah, China is – yeah, it's – yeah, I think initially they were discussing, like, 10% tariffs on China, and then it was, like, doubled to 20%. So – and actually, I believe this is, like, an additional one on top of it.
So, yeah, I was kind of busy at the conference.
Didn't have time to, like, fully get into the details, unfortunately, on this.
But I believe these are additional tariffs on top of the ones that already existed.
So they had like a few countries already had existing tariffs like China
and potentially Canada and Mexico, right?
So, yeah, like it's pretty big. Yeah like it's pretty it's pretty big um yeah it's pretty significant we'll
see like it can take a long time for it to show up in the prices but i mean there's already reports
in yeah coming out of china like the the suppliers like you know talking to walmart like no we're not like sorry we're not we're
not gonna uh lower our price for you like we're gonna go to sell we're gonna go sell to a buyer
in like in africa or something or in europe um so yeah they'll have to the importers and the
suppliers will have to like you know hash it out and yeah, work around the tariffs, like see who's going to have to pay, figure all that out.
That's crazy. That should stop everything.
And is it still like the same strategy that, you know, Trump is just trying to force the hand of Powell to get some rate cuts?
No, I mean, you know, yeah, yeah.
So he's, he was definitely not bluffing.
Yeah, like I think on a previous pod, I said something like it's pretty simple.
He's not playing like a 4D chess or anything.
And he basically just did exactly like he did exactly what he said he was going to do.
It took a little bit of time to get to it and like did a lot of confusing things on the way.
But yeah, I mean, like the thing you say he's gonna do is basically what
it's just what this is um so yeah like he genuinely likes tariffs like he genuinely
sees it as like a tool you know for for revenue um because it could be two things like in the
beginning he's using it more like a sanction it was like it was almost like a weapon almost right like a sanction was like a financial
disincentive um right when a country doesn't do something or does something that you know the u.s
doesn't like okay put a put a sanction on you they can't can't interact with us um so yeah that
the tariff is like a little bit similar it's like a lot of these
countries are selling things to the u.s so we're gonna put a tariff and boom you get less money
from us now like you don't you don't get to um make as much money from us so it's like a more
indirect like a much more indirect financial weapon sort of similar to a sanction because
he was like he was like threatening people with it he's like all right you
got to do this otherwise I'm gonna put the tariff on you but but now it's not
it's not a weapon right he just like he's putting a tariff on everyone so I
think it's 10% across the board like even even countries that have a surplus
that the US has a trade surplus with they got hit with a 10% tariff, I believe. So
it's like, yeah, it's not even, it's countries that aren't even doing anything wrong or that
Trump doesn't even like, like he might, he might like those countries, whatever. I don't know.
But yeah, he had to hit him with it anyway. So yeah. So I don't know how it escalates after this. I mean, maybe this is like the nail in the coffin.
But yeah, I don't see how it can escalate much further beyond this.
Maybe related, gold hits a new all-time high.
Is it related? I mean, the euro was just up a lot all-time high. Yeah, gold. Is it?
Is it related? I mean, the euro was just up a lot, like an hour ago, like right now.
So, yeah, the dollar wasn't doing too good.
Gold doing very well right now.
Yeah, that's pretty interesting.
I mean, who wouldn't want gold right now? Like, look at every, look at how assets are performing, how currencies are performing, like how crypto is performing, right?
So some of these foreign stocks are doing good, like Chinese stocks, some of these European weapons companies, like we're doing very well, but it's like an isolated know what i mean you still have risk yeah i heard that too i've read that too region and then gold
is like a neutral yeah it's not it's not controlled by a country it's just a thing that you have
that yeah almost every country has um they all have like some kind of self-interest
in gold some more than others and And yeah, it was like a nice, safe asset.
Yeah, it seems like gold and bonds have, you know, well, not all the bonds,
but, you know, it seems like some of these assets have been seen as the safe haven.
I guess the simplest way you can also look at it is you know does the
administration need stocks lower to force people to buy bonds i mean if you if you agree with the
camp that you know it's all about the 10 year and that you know they need the 10 year lower
trump holds loads of real estate you know they keep going on and on about interest rate cuts
and uh i remember a few macro guys before maybe it's andy constant you know he always shares this
mean bart writing on a black you know from the simpsons when bar on the cardboard and it's like
you know uh trump trump wants trump wants stocks lower best one stocks lower power
one stocks lower so you know is it all is this all being done to strong-arm people into buying
the buying bonds maybe but then again that's not the that's sort of the belief of the 4d chess
not the that sort of the belief of the 4d chess or is it just he's trying to run a playbook from
like the 1900s or you know previous protectionist era policies like you saw william mckinley a few
other guys in history really push these tariffs to try and you know eliminate income tax in america
and make everyone else abroad basically pay those taxes in the forms of tariffs.
You know, we live in the 21st century where people are bringing back
these old sort of old school ideas and policies.
And I think everyone likes to pretend that they know how it ends.
But in reality, we've not seen this story before.
You can read through history books, of course,
but it's easy to go with either side of the argument.
But again, you know, to give a strong opinion on it,
I'd just be turning into like every CT account
who's an expert on everything.
And sometimes I think the best thing you can say is,
I don't really know how this ends
yeah i mean that's great like yeah it is kind of like a random like an unseen um unforeseen
event like normally yeah it's 2025 you know it's like things change um there's not like a lot of you know like wars going on and stuff um
yeah like normally like trying to trump's like bringing the u.s back to like a like a time
when they're still developing but you don't like normally you do that like after you lose a war
or something and like you're down bad but he's trying to do it like without losing the war and
like just do it like just doing it willingly you know what i mean like normally you would do that kind of stuff like implement
tariffs trying to build up your manufacturing yeah like after you lose a big war and like
oh how what are we going to do like oh we got to make you know clothes and sell them to other
countries we got to make screws and doors and stuff um and some of them so but yeah like i think that that's that's the
kind of strategy that you do when you have nothing else to to offer the world so i mean it's kind of
weird that he's trying to do it he's trying to like do it on purpose from a position of strength
rather than a position of weakness which would be um the historical norm right so i don't know maybe there is examples in history of
like countries that were yeah more like i mean there are really because yeah obviously um just
the way that technology evolves like industrialization there's not like a big precedent
for countries that have had like a white you you know, like a white collar, professional managerial, like type middle class, and then trying to turn that back into,
yeah, more of like an industrial manufacturing type of economy, because, yeah, I mean,
this is just a kind of uncharted territory. I guess we'll see how it goes. I mean,
I think in the best case scenario, like it's,
it probably takes a long time to play out. Like, right.
Like if in 20 years people look back like, Oh, Trump was to go. Like he started,
he restarted everything. Like, you know, he kicked back the,
he started manufacturing again. Yeah.
It probably takes like several years at least to get it done uh you know
he he put out that that comment he said like oh i'm not ruling out a third term
yes i was gonna mention that yeah because he might be bringing up long terms yeah yeah 100%
um yeah for sure i mean and and all right bit of a segue but like talking about like
what what america might have to offer the world like to swing it back to crypto right um yeah yeah
it's financial services but like that's yeah exactly that's like that it's not many felt like
the us had like still actually manufacturers a lot of stuff. It actually exports a lot of stuff still.
It's still the number two exporter in the world behind China.
It just imports way more than it.
Agriculture is huge, right?
Agriculture, but then, yeah, there's a lot of advanced,
like making planes and stuff,
making advanced weapons systems,
like healthcare equipment, stuff like that.
And then, yeah, now china's getting in into into those industries as well like yeah the u.s is not like a it's not
like they just completely stopped making stuff at all like they definitely still make a lot of stuff
but it could be it's not as much as they used to right um so yeah like the things shifted towards like a the financialization of things right like
monetizing transactions right so yeah being a good place to invest letting everyone like anyone can
you know park their money in the u.s buy u.s assets and everyone does like that's yeah everyone does that's why the market's up
like over 20 the past two years like everyone in the world likes to buy u.s stocks like there's
no other yeah for sure that's like that so and that's like america's edge like that's their
moat you know what i mean i just got one small thing i wanted to say just before we move on i think as well
what we're seeing now is like this big global pushback against the globalized economy right
you know you can look across all over europe this big rise again of populism, you know, how great things must be, going back to old times, you know, all these people working from home, they don't do real work, you know, the man who's working on the construction site, the guys who manufacture things, these are the guys who are really responsible for everything. And I think it's almost a symptom of the backdrop
that we see all over the world at the minute
in that people want to go back to how things were,
the nostalgia of how we used to have so much more money,
we used to make everything.
Because in the UK, it's a very similar thing at the minute.
You know, there's a lot very similar thing at the minute you know
there's a lot of disdain for you know people in london who are the elite working in these
white collar industries what about the people up in the north who were typically heavily in
the manufacturing industry or in wales it was the coal industry right and i think what we're seeing now it's like this yin and yang right
you've got like the ai financial services the crypto bros and you know this big push towards
hyper financialization and technology but then in the backdrop of that you've got the people who
they don't give a shit about the magic internet money they don't give a shit about ai they don't give a shit about
all these new tech robots and technological advancements you know these are generations
of families where you know their dad worked in a factory their dad's dad worked in another factory
and you know that's i think that's this sort of shift we're seeing where both sides are pushing against each other.
And I think that what we see now with the tariffs and populism is the side effect of this push and pull.
Yeah, that makes a ton of sense to me.
And I think that's a great analysis.
It's such a sort of mimetic narrative that you can tap into, right?
Like going back to our labor, laborer roots, things of that nature that speaks to a lot of people and, you know, bringing back manufacturing stuff, stuff like that.
Yeah, that definitely taps into that.
On that, on the other side of that, you mentioned hyper-financialization, right?
And I mean, there might not be a better example of it
than Circle doing an IPO.
So yeah, this is a bit of news on it.
So yeah, this is a bit of news on it.
Rumored four to six billion equity valuation.
Yeah, guys, Daniel, I think you wanted to talk about this.
What's the tldr here yeah i mean the tldr uh yeah so circle's gonna be
launching their their ipo and there's actually like rumors of other not just circle like other
uh american companies in crypto going public like kraken was another one um yeah they obviously acquired ninja trader it was a big
one it was like 1.5 b something like that that's a pretty big one pretty big acquisition that kraken
made um but yeah for circle yeah i mean people like stable coins have been one of the top
narratives recently people were constantly saying
how do i get exposure like like i can't be bullish on usdc yeah yeah well actually you can now or you will be able to soon um and we'll see how it does yeah but you gotta get out of crypto and go back
that's why yeah that's why you need the tokenized stock so you can have some you know some random
that's why yeah that's why you need the tokenized stock so you can have
like smart contract holding it and then hopefully it doesn't turn out like that one on terra that
like lost all the money so maybe we'll see that again um i'm not sure yeah i, we'll see. You can see 25 to 38 PE ratio.
Yeah, I didn't have too much time to dig into the IPO yet.
But, yeah, I think it'd be interesting to see how, not necessarily how the price in itself does,
but what the narrative is uh from institutions that yeah
like non-crypto institutions the way that um you know firms like in new york look at coinbase and
look at you know like galaxy digital micro strategy like yeah people that don't even really care about
crypto like they still have to have their eyes on these things because they're just big they're just
big stocks like they have big market caps so they kind of force you to pay attention to them so now i'm curious to see like how
what are they going to think about ball circle like is it just going to be a crypto thing
is it going to be like a some kind of stable coin narrative that can maybe it trades at a premium
probably not a premium but like maybe it's there's more demand for it than some of the other public offerings
for crypto companies, or maybe
there's a little less demand. I don't know. So I think
it'll be interesting to see how that
yeah, how a public offering of a
stablecoin company is received.
yeah, I think we'll see how it plays out.
that I was thinking about is like, yeah, I think it's a good time. I think we'll see how it plays out and the other thing that I was thinking
about is like yeah I think it's a good time I think they should be like rushing
to do the IPO all right I know it takes a lot longer than just issuing a token
it takes a lot longer to get things finalized but the stablecoin space like
USDT tender was more profitable than BlackRock last year, right?
When you have a company like that with minimal employees and they have the highest profit per employee ratio in the world.
Yeah, some people think they have the highest profit per employee ratio in the world. Some people think they have the highest profit per employee ratio in the world.
That's not going to last forever. That means there's something
keeping a higher share of the profit than you should be because no one
else wants to play in the arena with you for some reason.
The reason was it's illegal. Like no one wants to,
right? Like tellers offshore. I think they're in El Salvador now. But yeah, no one wanted to get in the stablecoin business. Circle is like the golden child in stablecoins, right? It's bred in
the US, connected with Coinbase. Yeah, they have their hands like with all the all the people the movers and shakers in
u.s crypto industry maybe now like in u.s politics as well like you know showing up at these events
like these digital assets summits so um but yeah we have new stable coin regulations coming out
now we have the stable act it's not official yet but yeah that that draft
was put out there and it has some certain guidelines so but i i think the stablecoin
space should have more competition so yeah now we have multiple like yeah actually yeah just today
we spoke to someone uh making one of these stablecoin offerings
that can pass on more yield to the exchange, right?
So Agora is like the one that most people would know
that they have the yield from the treasuries
that they're backing their stablecoin with
and they're able to pass it on to the exchange.
And like that's their competitive edge.
Like that's why an exchange would choose to list them
their stable coin over usdt right so yeah just today i saw like an exchange here in thailand
listed the agora um stable coin i believe right so i think it's going to be like a race to the bottom
and the profit margins are going to get much thinner like yeah if more stable
coin companies start popping up then there should be more things like that where instead of tether
being able to keep all of the yield for themselves like that's why they're so profitable they just
keep all this yield from their treasury holdings like they're going to be forced to uh pass some of the on to the exchanges stay competitive um circles maybe has to start doing stuff like that there's like some
complications with the regulations like that stable act doesn't yeah you're not supposed to
have like yield on the stable coin so it gets a little murky but yeah i think yeah over time it'll
be more like it'll be like a race to the bottom. These companies should be less profitable, but it'll be a better experience for the users, right?
Because that yield can be passed on to them as well, right?
The exchanges are receiving yield from the stable coins.
How long before the exchanges start giving you, just holding stable coins on their platform, some of that yield as well well so that you use their exchange instead of their competitor so so yeah i think i'm waiting for that to play out in stable
coins where there's much more competition and it creates a better product for the user
and the better product is just users getting free free money just free yield instead of
tether keeping it all and yeah i don't know how long it's going to take, but that's what I think will happen
What do you think Tether's reaction will be to all of this?
Like, obviously, they want to slow it down.
I mean, they were, yeah, they had a presence in Washington.
It's like, they're very tapped into everything.
I think they're doing the most that they can.
Yeah, it doesn't mean that Tether is going to go out of business or anything.
They might not be able to continue being one of the most profitable companies in the world for years and years.
like it's gonna have to trickle down at some point right like like you look at
It's going to have to trickle down at some point.
something like cars in China right now you have like a 50 different brands and
they're all like making no money but it's super cheap right like people can
buy them for super cheap right but there is like a cutthroat business right so
stable coins like like the opposite right now. But yeah, so I think it could shift more towards like a more natural business landscape where you have to like make sacrifices, keep less of a profit for yourself in order to retain people actually using your coin.
Any thoughts on Spark who's kind of trying to do that, right? Like from MakerDAO, right? They offer 4.5% yield on your stable. Any thoughts on that on them?
Yeah, we'll see how the more decentralized solutions play out.
I mean, I think it's going to be like a distribution thing.
Like, yeah, Maker's obviously an OG protocol.
But I think it's going to be more about, yeah, like relationships with exchanges.
And then in the future, it might not even be exchanges.
Like stable coins are becoming, you know, more mainstream ready.
So it might be like Robinhood.
Like, who's going to be the stablecoin provider for
Robinhood? So there's going to be Circle. You know what I mean? So it might be things that
don't even exist yet. And it'll be about like having those, like planning those relationships
in advance. And then that's who can take some big chunks of market share. Yeah. It might even be like
banks that issue their own stable coins
i know the bank of america already said that they would like to if the i think if the if the
they said like if the regulation is more favorable they already would like to do that
so we'll see how it plays out maybe it's not any of the existing players right now. And it's just like, I don't know, five big banks that control like half of the market.
BD guys at institutions need to get ready
Next topic I'm going to pull up.
Um, D you want to talk about this one? Yes.
Justin's son. Yeah. Speaking of points, speaking of stables,
it seems upset this grand ruler son,
you know, he's, he's, he's, he's writing here that son you know he's he's he's writing here that you know first digital trust
is insolvent and they're not fulfilling the client fund redemptions i mean it's interesting
because if you ever took notice throughout the last two years if you ever looked at one of the top volumes on binance with bitcoin
for a long time it was fd usd and i remember there was tons of guys i think just before cz
went to prison you know they're propping a market up with fd usd it's um you know an exit scam
following busd being delisted after the Operation Chokepoint and a big push from, you know, the politicians in America.
But I think the more interesting thing that I found from this is that, you know, typically you saw some sort of relative alignment, you know, between the fuckery of Justin Sarr and Binance.
between the fuckery of Justin Sun and Binance.
And it's interesting to see his excellency, as people call him,
come out and push so hard against something like this,
considering the amount of shite that we've seen Justin Sun
pedal ponzies and all sorts.
But I think this is all linked around that they held 500 million of
reserves for t usd and essentially this is like the big pushback is that i think basically he's
trying to redeem 500 million of t usd maybe to move it into some other stable coin or fill some sort of
arbitrage it's hard to know but um first digital i know they responded i think you can pull the
tweet up that they wrote back and um it was interesting they basically came out and said
the complete opposite thing that nope we are solvent there are
no problems so it's sort of you know each person's pointing the finger at the other one saying you
know you're insolvent no we're not you're insolvent no we're not but then you know the uh pessimist
in me thinks is this just synonymous with the stage of the cycle we're in you know everyone even the
big guys have felt pressure of the prices going lower maybe there's holes that need filling and
this is sort of just the fallout of it that we're seeing now so um it's interesting you know whether
it is it another big bank run moment like we've seen in the past probably not
but it's probably worth keeping an eye on i think there was even a post today
of just the sun meeting with regulators in hong kong regarding this so is is it more the case that
you know he just wants his 500 milli back to blast into the TRX chart
or to buy some more Bitcoin with.
but it's interesting to see that
even these big guys out there
still like to come on Twitter and cry.
Cry, oh, they've stolen my 500 million.
Oh, I'm sorry, Your Excell you know it's not like you didn't engage in shady practices against retail investors for years and
years so uh yeah it's an interesting story either way how it ends again like most things in crypto
we don't really know yeah i mean who's uh is anyone surprised i'm not really surprised uh
i forget when this thing first was launched it was like 2022 or it was when yeah when they were
raising rates and it was like the popular thing like oh we got to get we gotta get a yield bearing
stable coin now and that was the hot thing.
Yeah, it's kind of funny.
You tried to pawn the blame off on Hong Kong.
tried to throw Hong Kong under the bus.
Yeah, and then it does segue nicely on to the uh april 1st
uh poor time joke where a lot of these shit coins just absolutely nuked you know there's
yeah you can pull the chart up here so there was some really you know really weird fuckery that went on in the market on that
day not that you know not that half of these tokens were even worth as much as they should
have been worth anyway but you know i think it was a it was something around finance changed
margin requirements and then the classic winter mute you know winter mute ruined the market crowd
piled in on it and then i mean it's april the 1st so i was sat here looking at these charts
well i don't even know man you know everything's so down bad anyway that you know i don't really
know is this just fake is it real or you know is there lots of things going on in the background that we're not really seeing
right now you know is with all this legislation we're seeing coming out of the us are people
trying to like clean their acts up to get into this sort of new political lobby of crypto companies
you know there's a lot of beliefs that that's why there's been these crazy listings on
finance with you know the however many different cz broccoli dog whatever token it was i think
there was a mubarak token to celebrate aid as well so like you know people just don't really know
what's going on now and is it people cleaning their acts up is it just this sort of last sort
of push to try and extract a bit more value before the next leg down or is it just desperation
it's hard to really know i mean it does remind me a lot of previous cycles where
you know when the times get tough you see a bit more crime on the rise.
And if I could long crime right now, I absolutely would.
I'll be trying to figure it out for a long time.
But if anyone wants to tokenize crime, then yeah.
We'll need to see ground.
All right. crime then yeah all right i mean you're tokenizing everything so who knows um i think um did you guys see that post by suzu i think he had an interesting read on this but i'm not sure if you guys no you can pull it up uh i don't think yeah i'm pulling it up
read it for a second and like see if you can make like sense of it um curious about your thoughts
i mean i've never been a real big i've never really had much knowledge you know
regarding market making and perps yeah it requires a bit more of a deep dive these sex
coins it's like someone does like a lot of practices that are
not going to be familiar with a lot of the on-chain because these are like unique yeah just like odd
tokens like right like binance listed a lot of odd tokens like act yeah a lot of people off guard
um yeah they had broccoli like he's easy's dog like he changed the dog's name to make the
so much weird stuff um it's like another yeah it's the meta game it's like there's crypto
there's these different sectors and yeah this is like uh it might just be something that a lot of
people that are more like the on-chain stuff just don't't interact with them much. But I think it's a big, a lot of like sophisticated organizations and individuals.
I think it was like one of those things where I was glad,
like, yeah, I was just busy that day.
And maybe it's a good thing.
I didn't get to see those
Is there anyone that's holding act?
So I don't think... Hopefully, I don't think
these things are affecting
Some of these are random tokens
that maybe some just random retail people on Binance are buying.
Yeah, nobody cares, right?
It's just interesting that it happens.
And it's like also like the meta game, like you mentioned,
like Suzu commenting on that and having some insights on that.
And it also kind of reminds me of Justin's son.
Like I'm always wondering like, okay, them tweeting out this type of stuff, and having some insights on that. It also kind of reminds me of Justin's son.
I'm always wondering, okay, them tweeting out this type of stuff,
what's the game behind that tweet that they're playing?
There's so much more going on.
I mean, it just makes you wonder.
But obviously, it's hard to know what.
You see that, and you're like, oh, that's the game i don't want to play yeah like let's leave it to these dudes to put the fight over leave to the professionals
yeah yeah let's uh i'm good on that low liquidity you know the it's very easy to move the prices of
some of these assets and you know the nature of the market makers is you
know not that i'm an expert my smooth brain caveman way of breaking it down is you know
they're controlling the spread between the bids and the asks right and with these tokens that can
see such big appreciation through short squeezes and you know is there actually a lot of you know genuine
buyers coming in or is a lot of it just you know chart alchemy where these sorts of short squeezes
can go on or big long liquidations go on but then you've got to think you know some of these tokens
are like 20 to 100 million market cap with few million of
liquidity available so you know in that in that sense it is almost like a tinderbox yeah i mean
it's like the jelly jelly thing from from last from last week we didn't uh have an episode last
week so we didn't discuss it yeah it was interesting on hyper liquid i mean yeah i feel like uh
like most of our audience like like who who is treating that dude like that that's a problem
between the exchange like the exchanges can can fight that out um yeah but that's just an interesting like landscape where you have these different actors uh and groups
yeah like fighting and then these random meme coins are like the
the battlefield like it's the place that they they have to fight it yeah it's how the exchanges
project the power onto each other in a way you know like we saw with the
yeah it was jelly jelly on hyper liquid yeah well it just sounds so dumb like yeah like jelly jelly
but it's like an opportunity for the exchanges to like you know like little bro hyper liquid
but it's just yeah it's like it's billions of dollars like at stake and like a lot of you know
serious like large teams reputations on the line.
But yeah, it's always funny.
But Jelly Jelly is the vehicle of expression for these little battles.
And it's also, in a way, it's a bit of a poison chalice in a sense, right?
Because you can list these very low liquidity
low market cap tokens you know for a while the meta was any token that was listed on hyperliquid
you could just short it straight away and whilst like you know from one perspective you know some
of these exchanges did very well out of this sort of meta right and you know it was seen as like a safe haven play to
do on hyperliquid at the time but then i think eventually you know like any arbitrage like any
inefficiency in the market people catch on and then i think eventually you see like you saw with
jelly jelly these large squeezes upwards with this hyper liquid whale that everyone was
following so heavily are they a genius are they a madman you know is it cx wars against dex wars
going on so it's a it's the positive and the negative you know you can rake in the fees
everyone wants to come on the platform and shop this shit coin but you know when something
there's something i'm learning crypto is that you know when something becomes the surefire play
you know just deposit your money in ust or you know just deposit your money in a in the hlp it's
100 say not not that i'm hating i think hlp is great you know they had incredible
sharp ratios and the things it was doing was really impressive i couldn't hate on it at all
but it's almost like as soon as ct or the general crypto audience decides you know yeah this token
yeah i'll be parked in this old coin for the bear market. I won't lose any money at all.
Eventually, something comes along and fucks with it a bit.
You know, like, like, you know, you're a fan of Muay Thai Stefano.
You know, you'll see these guys, they're these amazing fighters.
They beat everyone all the time.
And you think, how could this guy lose?
You know, no one could ever beat this guy. He's unbeatable.
And then some guy comes along and drops him, you know, does something different,
finds some hole that no one else saw, hits him with a punch that he didn't see.
I think you see that sometimes in these stages of the market, for sure.
For sure, for sure. And I think that's the perfect
segue to our winners and losers
audience, every week we do
the winners and losers segment.
here pick a best performer and a worst
It can be meme coins specific apps change
uh they can be muay thai fighters unfortunately but they can be uh dexes sexes anything in crypto so
um daniel why don't you uh kick us off yeah i mean this week is bad i mean like 75 of the episodes we did it's like
i have to say that uh but it's yeah it's just the truth like like but the last several weeks
uh we're not that good um yeah we missed out on last week when things were a little bit better
but i kind of had to leave crypto a little bit to even find a winner. So I guess I'll say PAX Gold,
I guess a winner doesn't have to be
in the green on the week for us to say it.
But like, yeah, I think it should be.
And yeah, you just can't,
like if you just look at the top 100 to 200 tokens,
no, like there's nothing that people have heard know what it is
Like EOS isn't in the green,
but everything else is just down bad.
But gold, yeah, gold doing very well.
Yeah, stable coins are doing good.
But yeah, in the real world,
stable coins are good in crypto, but in the real world like stable coins are good in crypto like in the real
world people aren't like that bullish on the dollar right now like it's not yeah it's not
it's not doing that good gold's doing good so yeah i don't know maybe we can see a little
i don't tokenized gold interest i don't think it'll happen but it could be interesting like
it's pretty interesting how like the real world demand for
these things is flipped in crypto there's no demand for golden crypto a lot of demand for
u.s dollars in the real world it's like the opposite right now um yeah and my loser is
going to be jupiter like jupe the jupe token uh is down yeah it's down like 30 this week they had a dow vote
this already happened like they already had a similar situation where they had a dow vote
they give a bunch of tokens to the team and like okay they resolved it token price went down
wherever um but yeah they had like a somewhat similar DAO vote this past week
over a much smaller amount of tokens
or a much smaller amount of compensation
That's not 100% responsible for the price going down a lot,
but I think that is funny.
I got to say that Joop's the loser
just because you have these things
that you would think would be resolved
that are still kind of coming back
just the way it is with DAOs
had to say Jupe as a loser this time
Jupe as a loser in one of the previous
episodes so yeah, they're back again I think Dees also said Jupe as a loser in one of the previous episodes.
So, yeah, they're back again.
The team must have a lot of expenses or they're curing world hunger.
So I'm not going to judge.
And I mean, the expenses, like, it wasn't that much.
But, yeah, anytime you evolve, like, the DAOs,
I definitely think, like, the Hyperliquid model is better.
D-list, jelly jelly as soon as possible,
and the community can figure out their thoughts later.
But it's not the direction that Jupiter is in.
So you do the best with what you have.
So my winner of the week, I mean, look, it's a boring one,
but I'm going to say Bitcoin, but not for the sense,
you know, oh, it's the number one currency.
For those of us who have had multiple market cycles, I think it's easy to forget.
You know, people complain, oh, you know, the returns are diminishing.
It's, you know, why would I buy Bitcoin?
I can't make a 10x or 20x sure but you know I remember in the previous cycle how quickly
I can't make a 10x or 20x.
the drop happened from you know the second peak during the FTX collapse and I feel like a lot of
the bad news and bad narratives that we've had now in previous times you know we would have been down you know we would have
retraced the entire etf pump by now right and i think people forget that either way i might be
wrong you know in a few weeks maybe if we're trading at 50k i'll happily put my hands up and
say i got this completely wrong but i think there is some merit in that you know the volatility has gone down maybe the
drawdowns aren't as bad as previous cycles you know considering previous times i think the cycle
before even two cycles before we ran up like what to 20k 17k and then it went right back down into
the thousands i think so now this time you know
you look at it you know the low was at 16k we ran all the way up to 108k and we're sat at around 80k
now you know if someone had told you that years ago you would have you know there's no way there's
no way again maybe it's a lagged effect but the bit of hope you might do have for this this cycle or this market in
general is that with the decreased returns we hope we pray to the crypto gods comes the decreased
drawdowns in an asset like bitcoin so that's my winner and then in terms of loser, I mean, they're all losers at the minute.
You know, any old coin that you've held is a loser.
But I think the one that probably stands out most to me, it's probably, I mean, I can to because, you know, they were the predominant decentralized exchange on Solana.
When Duke launched, it was huge.
You know, everyone, people couldn't get enough of Jupiter.
You know, it was all this, you know, they're amazing.
It's going to flip Uniswap, all this staking.
The protocol is still doing, yeah, the token sucks right now.
But yeah, the protocol is still like...
You can look at it both ways.
You can be like, oh, okay, that's good.
Or you can be like, oh, it's even worse.
The protocol is still doing pretty well.
Still nearing a billion in annualized fees.
But yeah, just the way the market is.
yeah i didn't mention this they did make another acquisition this past week i actually can't even
remember the name like it's too many to keep track of they've acquired like five companies
um they yeah they made another acquisition this past week so when it comes to the the team's
So when it comes to the team's decision-making,
The community's decision-making, less good.
And the token price, which is bad.
Or it could be really basic and say ETH holders,
but they're still the losers of the week.
Yeah, cliche, like a real...
Bitcoin winner of the week, ETH losers of the week yeah cliche like a real yeah bitcoin winner of the
week eth loser of the week you know is it it's been quite a winner is he gonna come true you
know is he gonna go home under a thousand dollars and have its day again who knows i don't want the
east to attack me because i sit in no camp anyway i think if you attach yourself to a blockchain and
make your identity there's something wrong with you but ultimately yeah it's between dupe or
eth for me and what about you stefan me guys like i'm just a moderator uh switzerland over here i
don't even think about this.
But, okay, you're putting me on the spot
so I'll just go off the cuff
so Southeast Asia blockchain week
because like the main event
it affected so many people
especially in Myanmar like that
10,000 casualties so to some extent like I get the the organizers that they say like okay you know
it's it's Southeast Asia blockchain week like so many people were affected uh we gotta we gotta
cancel the the main event and there there might have played more, like, there might have been more that played into that decision, right?
But from a basic stance, like, I get that.
So, yeah, that's pretty sad.
And, like, you know, it was going to be, like, a major conference, I think, for the region.
major conference, I think, for the region.
But at the same time, me and Daniel were here this week,
are still here this week.
We're still going to events.
The turnout is pretty great.
There's still, like, tons of side events,
and they're pretty interesting.
Like, today we were, like, at the Barrett Chain event bear chain event you know small like uh community
meetup i think for sue earlier this week there was a polka dot event uh this evening i'm just
kind of going off the cuff here but i'm just trying to illustrate that there is still like
uh a lot of activity here and And yeah, it's very interesting.
Talk with guys from BitCup,
like the major exchange here in Thailand, right?
And they're doing great things.
So, you know, it's kind of like
Good pick, the duality of conferences yeah
yeah creative one okay a w for community an l for conferences yeah yeah an l well yeah i would assume
an l for like the organizers um yeah they're probably like yeah yeah like um money wise and Yeah, like money-wise. And then, yeah, W for the ecosystem.
Yeah, it's more concentrated, like high-quality people.
And it's like, it's not dispersed, like 20 different events, more like one big event, you know, and everyone's there.
I mean, I prefer that anyway.
I would have loved to see the main uh event like
don't get me wrong but i enjoy like going around the city and and seeing bangkok and just moving
around a little bit and seeing different venues you know there's so much to see so like i'm not complaining, but yeah, it's different.
Yeah, so yeah, W for SEA blockchain week,
I think in the end, mostly a lot of damage
across the industry last week.
Just like our portfolios. Again, maybe like our portfolios, like our own bags,
like we're here to like really go through the ride with you,
And yeah, let's see what next week will bring.
I think it was like in the 83s
before we started recording.
So does that mean when we stop,
it's going to go back up again?
Yeah, I mean, that's pretty...
That's, yeah, that actually is pretty crazy eth is down bad yeah eth is down bad i mean
yeah maybe i should have picked eth we can pick it on jupy
i should have picked eth actually that's pretty crazy like you could have bought
even like in 2021 and like not even made a profit yet after years.
You could have bought Tesla, Palantir.
You could have bought any number of big-name stocks
But if you were in ETH at that time,
It's brutal. just a bleak
way to end the episode, but
It is what it is. We'll get
for being here. Thanks for
chatting. It's been insightful.
Thank you to the audience
It was insightful for you guys as well.
Next week, we'll be back.
A bit of a RWA-focused episode, probably,
because we got DeFactor and RWA.io joining us as guest speakers.
So that'll be the first time.
So that'll be interesting dynamic, and it should be exciting. So, yeah, we'll be the first time so that'll be interesting dynamic and it should be exciting
um so yeah we'll be back thursday uh same time turn your notifications on uh we'll post the
episode on youtube as well we're live on youtube as well if you prefer catching us there
give us a follow and that's about it, guys. See everyone next week.