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Market Check:General Crypto and Stock Market News Roundtable $BTC $SPX
Recorded: May 30, 2023 Duration: 1:17:00Space Recording
Full Transcription
I will get started in like two minutes or so.
And I had a pretty hardcore leg workout yesterday.
I'm not going to lie, dude.
Feels like I've been steamrolled.
But it's all good, man.
I'm wondering if after the space, I should go to this Russian bathhouse.
Not Russian bathhouse.
It's a Turkish bathhouse.
It's like some recovery stuff, man.
You get into like this weird water.
It's got like some Epsom salt and all that stuff.
It's not it's not that it's not that expensive.
It's actually quite affordable.
It's like like 70 bucks, 80 bucks for the whole day.
Um, there's like some massages as well, dude.
Works great for recovery.
And I think I'm going to do that after the space, man.
Um, yeah, man, you should be getting some, uh, regular massages, man.
I love it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I usually, I usually get them, uh, weekly.
It's just, um, I'm kind of torturing myself because I missed a few days of training during
Miami, um, during like the Miami week, you know, that was like, I was like four days of
no training, man.
So I've just been like brutalizing myself since then, man, you know, like, uh, you know, I
don't deserve physical therapy for like two weeks because I missed, uh, I missed training.
But, um, yeah, man, um, I'm going to put some things on the nest just, um, so we can cover
some news after we give the opening statement and all that stuff.
And then we have our crypto segment in about an hour.
So, uh, premise, if you want to lead it while I put some things on the nest for our news
base segment, you can go on ahead.
All right.
Yeah.
Yeah, for sure.
And we appreciate everybody who showed up early.
If y'all don't mind, give us a like and a retweet, try to get this face jumping, get
it juiced out there.
I am one of your hosts.
I am premise up here with Wabi, who's behind our handle there.
As you see our mascot, the because Bitcoin logo, give that a follow.
If it's your first time, we're also up here with two of our analysts, Snorlax and Tucker.
And yeah, we're going to talk markets today.
And of course, you know, if we're going to talk markets, um, which by the way, I do hope
everyone had a great holiday.
I honestly didn't know we had a holiday until like the day before, honestly, straightforward.
I never know when holidays are coming up.
People are like, Hey, let's go do something.
Why?
Because the holidays are like, okay, but we should just do it anyway.
Um, but yeah, I hope you had a great, uh, holiday.
I saw yesterday NQs were up.
We did hold a spaces.
Um, today we had more continuation.
We actually had a gap up essentially in the market that kind of held from yesterday's move.
Um, something that I'm completely not surprised about.
Y'all know I've been playing this whole tech can catch a crazy bid, this quote unquote meat
melt up thesis in tech.
I think we're starting to see that's the type of movement that I kind of wanted put longer
than I wanted, but you know, here we are at three 50.
I always thought these were like possible levels.
I do think there's still some more potential top side, uh, depending how we close today
could probably mark a temporary top.
Um, we're, we're, we're setting up some inefficiencies.
NVIDIA to another all time high of the year.
It literally just gapped up like a monster, a champ at a trillion dollar market cap.
It's so insane to see the run NVIDIA has had.
Um, and it's encouraging, but I believe this is the situation I've always painted in my head
that, Hey, you know, if the trade were CPI, I know CPI was safe to keep coming down until
after the summer, if the trade is unemployment, I felt that, you know, what we saw last year
at the end of last year, the labor shortage that, Hey, unemployment could stay good.
And if this was all the case, that tech could catch this huge bid, especially with this AI
narrative.
Remember I was huge on the AI narrative and that's, what's been bidding this time.
The ticker AI is up another, I think 18, 18, 20% today.
I forgot.
I got to check again.
Might be even up 30.
So, you know, I've been playing that ticker.
All these AI stocks, uh, chips have been catching a bid and what I realized is there's a lot
of money either on the sidelines or even hedged into puts.
Even I was playing safe really early this year.
And so then, then that's bring us to our show yesterday where I, like I said, over the weekend,
I spoke to a man whose son is in wall street.
He said his son's hedge fund is kind of, they, they want to get in, but they're scared to,
and he has money himself and he wants to get in, but he's scared to.
And I was like, Oh yeah.
So this is where we got to start gapping up essentially this, and that's what we did
today.
This is where we got to start actually put, pushing down the pedal, tease those who are
out to FOMO in at higher prices, where then we can probably try to shake them with a huge
sell off.
So where's that level?
Who knows?
Who knows how rational does the market become?
But I think now we can start making an argument.
We're moving more into a rational territory, except remember when they say it could stay irrational
longer than you say solvent.
I'm telling you, I don't believe any of the action all this beginning of this year has been
irrational at all.
We only just started irrational.
That's just kind of my base case, basing it off the fact that we're gapping up on stuff
now.
So that's kind of my outlook.
I think tech still looks good.
I do think CPI in two weeks is going to print good.
I think the Fed, regardless of when he sees his next print, will only have good things to
say at the meeting when it comes to raising rates.
Even if he does raise another 25, I think this market has showed everyone they don't really
give a damn about him raising another 25.
So we don't know.
Either he pauses or he puts it off.
I think the most bullish case is him actually putting it off.
Funny enough, the way this market's trading, I'm starting to think the longer, hey, maybe
him not rate, maybe him pausing is the most bearish thing that can happen now.
Because then any kind of scary news could actually scare the market versus encourage them.
So this is a weird dynamic I'm playing with.
But we are trading in the market, I expected, with tech leading heavy.
The charts look good.
We're reaching these levels.
I expect these levels that we're carving out the hold of support on the way down whenever
we do get a sell-off.
And I'm telling a lot of people, look at NVIDIA.
Don't think just because one little gap up, it's over.
It could keep on going.
We have bullish momentum.
And now it's time to bring pain to those who still have a little taste for shorting.
It's not until the last bear taps will I start to consider this rally or mark it over.
But that's my opening thoughts.
I'd like to let's go ahead and move it on.
I guess we can move on towards...
Wabi, did you want to go first, actually?
I don't know.
Or are we just rotating this off?
Because you were putting stuff in the nest.
Uh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, put some things on the nest for our news, for our news-related stuff.
We'll do that for the last 15, 20 minutes or so before we go on to our crypto segment.
But for myself, Tenant's doing pretty good.
We had Greg on, who's the founder of Tenant.
And, you know, he's an individual that's been in the crypto industry since, like, 2016,
as far as, uh, developing things go, 2016, 2017.
And, uh, it's basically the first, like, layer one blockchain for LSDs where you're going to be able to transfer
a variety of your assets from different chains in regards to liquid staking derivatives.
So, I find that pretty cool.
Uh, it has a first mover advantage.
Um, market cap's not really too crazy.
And I think it'll outperform LDO.
And, uh, from what we've seen over the last few days, um, really all year, it's like whenever
ETH moves, LDO just moves, like, a bit harder, a bit harder.
Um, so that thesis is coming out to play.
Um, outside of that, man, nothing, nothing too crazy, to be honest.
Nothing too crazy, uh, at all.
I do know that, like, there was, uh, there, there, there was, like, I, I guess it was almost
an arbitrage, but on Binance and on Aussie, there was, like, a $9,000 price difference,
apparently.
So, compared to other exchanges.
So, I'm not sure if someone with, like, uh, like, some VPN or something was able to, to
have that ARB, or perhaps they were able to buy Bitcoin, like, $9,000 cheaper, um, and
then sell it on another exchange.
You know, I know there were some sick arbitrage opportunities back in the previous bear market,
especially with the altcoins.
Um, like, I remember one time, this token, ICX, was trading at, like, at, like, a 70% premium,
uh, compared to other exchanges.
Um, it had, it had a premium on, I think it was, like, OKX or something like, yeah, it
was OKX.
It had a 70% premium, so all you had to do was just, like, buy on KuCoin, send it to OKX,
and, you know, that, that was, uh, some free gains right there, dude.
Um, sometimes there's still opportunities like that, man, but not as much as there, not
as much as there used to be, man.
Um, but, uh, do you remember this altcoin called TomoChain premise?
Am I coming in clearly?
Testing, testing?
Yeah, you are.
I was away from the phone.
Oh, OK, OK.
I was literally just away from the phone.
Um, I actually got into that, uh, play you called for me yesterday, Tennant.
It was my first time ever trying to stake, by the way.
But what was your question?
Yeah.
Yeah, I was saying, um, do you remember this altcoin called Tomo?
T-O-M-O?
Tomo.
No, that one doesn't ring a bell.
Yeah.
It, it, it was, it was this altcoin that was well-known in, like, 2019 for just having
these crazy palm cents.
Uh, yesterday or the day before, it had a pump of, like, 130%.
Just out of nowhere, dude, and a four-hour candle.
I'm like, oh, man, dude.
It, it's, it's truly, it was truly reminiscent of, like, history never repeats itself, but it
often rhymes, right?
So, I, I, I just love seeing this volatility, right?
And, um, I, I still think we're gonna get that god candle, and, um, I, I think eventually,
like, a few of those market participants that left crypto, rather, not, not left crypto,
but are just giving equities more attention.
Specifically, like, the concentrated tech names, I think, um, they'll move some of that
liquidity over to crypto.
And I think it's coming in June.
I, I truly think it's coming in June, dude.
I think there's gonna be somewhat of a front run for the pause.
And, um, yeah, those are, those are some of my, uh, my opening thoughts.
Um, so, I'll, I'll, I'll go ahead and let Snorlax and Tucker go now.
I like that, uh, and I did get into the tenant play.
I'm gonna try to play liquid staking derivatives.
Uh, I don't wanna miss on a new narrative.
So, I took my own personal risk on that.
I, I told Wabi about it.
I'm kinda excited.
I've, I've never really done those type of things.
Snorlax, what's good, man?
New week, holiday over.
Hope you had a great weekend.
Tell us how that was.
And then tell us, what are you seeing in the markets?
And what are you expecting moving forward?
No, what's good, Premis?
Uh, no, I, um, I spent the weekend with my brother.
He flew in from Arizona.
I only get to see him, like, two or three times, three or four times a year.
So, um, you know, it was, it was super awesome to, to be able to spend time with him and,
uh, and my mom and obviously my fiance as well.
But, you know, as far as the market goes, um, yeah, I mean,
what, what more can you say about tech?
I feel like I, I kind of repeat myself in that regard almost every day with, uh, with
how impressive the cues have looked.
Um, you know, the ES, the S and P has kind of moved higher on a slow grind towards monthly
resistance, but hasn't quite had the same, you know, parabolic ascension that the cues
have had, which have been driven.
And like you said, Premis, I mean, I, I mean, it's been driven so far by FOMO as well as,
you know, positioning unwinding.
We talk about, you know, people, I mean, even though the cues were like three 35, three
40 last week, the pain trade was still higher because, you know, people, people for some
reason, man, I mean, you know, I've been guilty of this myself in crypto, but eventually
you learn your lesson, uh, with time in this market or any market, you know, like there's
just no reason to short strength.
Yes.
You can eventually be right.
You can catch a really nice move probably within the trend, but, um, you know, you're
probably going to take a few haircuts before you're eventually proven right.
If you are even right.
Right.
So I, you know, for me, it's like, why would I disrespect this strength in the cues, uh,
S and P, you know, maybe I'm a little bit more disrespectful of the way that looks, but
you know, I'll tell you what, if the, if people are just going to bid, um, you know, based
on the pause, uh, or because inflation's coming down, I see no reason for this market to, you
know, see at least equity markets, see extremely strong downside, uh, before something materially
changes or until we, you know, break market structure in a meaningful way to the downside.
And I, you know, we could always see pullback right into June, into the summer. That's not
abnormal in any capacity.
Sell in May, yada, yada, sell, sell in June could be either, or there might not be one
at all, but you know, if you do get one, I think it's a pullback for buying.
Unless, like I said, you get a market structure break for the downside.
You just look at how strong equity market structures look, especially on the cues.
Um, you know, I think for tech pullbacks are absolutely forbidding.
Um, and you know, especially if you believe in a melt up thesis, we're already kind of seeing
that so far. I mean, yeah, equities speak for themselves. The, the bid on them is extremely
strong and the lack of liquidity has helped these, uh, these indexes, you know, trade even
higher, even faster. Um, you know, than normal as far as Bitcoin goes though, you know, I'm
still in the opinion that we're not leading or lagging. We're just showing a lot of weakness,
uh, from a lack of liquidity, mainly in my opinion, a lack of participation. We had this
really nice squeeze, uh, over the weekend. And so far the follow through is a little bit
disappointing. You know, I wouldn't say that all hope is given up on Bitcoin, right? Because
you know, when you zoom out, we have technically been stacking short stops and potential short
liquidations over the last two months. So, you know, I, I do believe in the potential for a
God candle higher. I, I guess I just, I don't know who's going to force it, uh, upon the
market. Cause I do think that's, what's going to have to have to happen. This is a, a market
that's been pretty much driven by like two or three entities and has a lot to do with,
with how suppressed volatility is in the crypto market. And I won't talk to you guys about that
again, but, um, you know, for me, my focus is I agree with you, Wabi of that people who left
this market are going to be upset with themselves for doing so when they did, given how low Bitcoin's
volatility is right now, historically speaking, uh, you know, I've talked a lot about this.
I think there's a move coming very soon on Bitcoin. Uh, and that's, that's my focus is
catching that move, staying in this market, staying in the market that I trade. And, you
know, if we are going to get a big spike in volatility, I want to be there heading into
the summer. Um, but yeah, I mean, crypto and Bitcoin definitely look weaker than equities
time will tell if we are leading or lagging or if, you know, just the lack of liquidity
and participation in crypto are, are kind of, you know, uh, hampering it a bit, but man,
I mean, Hughes tech pullbacks. Um, I would have to imagine that you, you bid pullbacks later
this year with the expectation that, you know, we do see higher prices throughout the year.
Um, less confident in crypto that it does that, but I mean, the cues are just, uh, they're
just unbelievable premise, you know, Nvidia, uh, Apple's about to make a new all time high.
Um, yeah. And plenty of big tech names that haven't even caught a rotation yet.
Yeah. I haven't been following Apple's, uh, super heavy. I kind of wanted to take a look
at that. Uh, just like you said, I want, I'm wondering when does Bitcoin, Bitcoin look
good by the way. And I think it still kind of looks good at least above 27.3 beneath that.
I start switching my opinion. Hagrid was good, man. How'd you enjoy your holiday? What are
you looking at in the market? What are you expecting going forward?
Yeah, man. Um, had a fantastic holiday. Um, got real sunburned yesterday.
I went out to my, uh, my buddy's ranch and we, we got some rifles out and shot some tannerite
and had some fun. So, um, I'm from the great state of Kansas. So that's, that's just kind
of what we do out here when we, when we get the chance. But, um, yeah, no, it was, it was
a great time, but glad the, uh, glad the markets are back open for sure. I was, I was weird
yesterday. It was like, you know, eight 15, 8 AM here. And I was like, what's, you know,
I was just looking for the markets to open, but anyways, um, yeah. So just sitting here
looking at the S and P I, uh, I had this gap drawn out. We just had a gap in the chart
basically, um, from last August from like 4,200 to 4,220, we gapped up above it and now we're
kind of back testing it right now. Um, it is looking bullish. Like I want to see it hold.
I want to see it hold 4,200, but I mean, if it, if it does hold, it looks like a, a breakout and
kind of a retest. And I would, I would expect higher to expect like 42 eighties after that
probably. But, um, yeah, I mean, you, you can't, you can't fade the strength of FQQ and NVIDIA,
right. I have a, uh, an XLK chart that I have that I was playing around with some of
the, uh, the GAN fans, some of that. And I sent this in the discord. I think you saw a premise
just, it hit this, this eight one extension right on the nose. And I'm not sure what happens
after that. Like, you know, after, after the eight one, it's kind of untreaded territory.
So we'll see what happens. But, um, I have the same thing drawn for Qs and it's got a
little, it's got a little more room up to like three sixties until it hits its eight
one. So again, these are, these are kind of, you know, I don't, I don't know how to use
these GAN fans as well as some of these other people. So, I mean, they could be a little
bit off, but they've been, they've been working pretty well so far. But being said, I mean,
I think, I think tech's got some more, some more legs. Um, S and P is at a pretty, pretty,
you know, decisive inflection point right now. I haven't taken a trade yet today just
cause it was Memorial day yesterday and we had the debt ceiling stuff happening over
the weekend with them, you know, possibly inking a deal, but you know, obviously it's
gotta be voted on. So I was just expecting some shenanigans today, but, um, yeah, I mean,
I'm seeing TMF and TLT, TLT is up about a percent. TMF obviously is up about 3% cause
it's the through X bull ETF, but getting a nice bounce from where I was kind of hoping
it would. Um, cause if it didn't hold where, you know, if it didn't, if TLT didn't hold
like, you know, a hundred bucks, basically it was, it was probably going a lot deeper and
it still could. Right. But, um, you know, it's, it's bouncing from where I'm, where I
wanted it to. Um, and we had somebody, one of our, one of our premium members was
asking earlier this morning on our call, like what could, what could bring down long
duration treasury bonds at this point now that the debt ceiling is, you know, tentatively
resolved. Right. Um, and I mean, the only thing I could think of is like sticky inflation
and more rate hikes, right. If, if higher for longer is real, which, you know, we've
already kind of been higher for longer, honestly, like we've still been hiking, but
you know, if they actually are able to hold rates up here for an extended period
of time, that, you know, that will somewhat invalidate the long bonds trade in the
short term, in my opinion. Um, but yeah, very, very interested to see what this all
looks like going into FOMC and CPI in a couple of weeks. Um, the other thing I wrote a little,
I don't even want to call it a thread, but a few, a few tweets strung together the other
day, just about, um, my outlook for the next few weeks, looking at, um, liquidity and, you
know, CPI and FOMC and kind of the debt ceiling thing. Um, what I was seeing is once the debt
ceiling is fully resolved and they voted on it and they've raised it, whatever, um,
that Yellen is going to have to refill the TGA, which should be like, I think five to
600 billion of liquidity being pulled from the market between now and CPI FOMC meeting.
Um, obviously that should be viewed as, you know, negative, right? Like that should be
viewed as like, okay, money is going to be coming out of equity markets and, um, you know,
it should, it should be cause for downside. That being said, I think if, you know, people
are doing their CPI calculations, like I know you do premise and, you know, even, even some
basic math can show you that like, we should have a decently, you know, lower print on CPI
versus last month. You know, if people are going to bid a pause rally from now until CPI
while we're having liquidity pulled from the market, we're probably going to chop. We're
probably going to go sideways if not, maybe lower. But that being said, I think going into
like, you know, the week or a few days before we get the print, I think that's when we probably
get sort of a bid for a pause or a bid for, you know, a cool print or whatnot. So yeah, expecting
expecting not too much higher on equities, honestly. I mean, I think tech could still
kind of run, but I think this liquidity drain is going to be a real, you know, a real pull
for the markets towards probably chop or downside. So, um, yeah, that's what I'm saying. Haven't
done too much trading today. I'll probably, I'll probably get back on the horse tomorrow,
but, um, yeah, that's, that's what I'm seeing from now.
Yeah. You know, also I do want to mention, man, uh, that trade I took yesterday at like
3am, uh, with ads for is now up 30%. You gotta love privacy and AI and all that stuff, man.
That narrative is just absolutely insane. And I think some of these AI things, um, in crypto
can run significantly higher, but anyways, that's a discussion for another time. Um, Matt,
what's going on, brother? It's good to finally have you back, man, after Miami. Unfortunately,
we couldn't meet up. Not sure what happens, uh, to be honest, but what's going on, brother?
How are you feeling?
Hey, hey, hey, y'all. Uh, yeah, I thought I'd pop in. Um, sorry. We, uh, couldn't, couldn't
meet up in Miami. Everyone, you know, everyone's trying to meet everyone and not disappoint and,
and attend this party or attend this, attend this event. Um, but don't worry. There's,
there's always next time. Um, yeah, uh, I'm, I'm just, I think I'm still just on my same thesis.
Honestly, uh, I look at gold. It's still in its uptrend. If you're looking medium term
and long term, it just retested its 20 week moving average and seems to have found support
thing with same thing with Bitcoin. If you look at it, it's 20 week moving average. It retested
its, uh, its support. And, um, yeah, uh, I don't really, I don't really see anything to make me change
my medium or long term thesis. Um, every time that, uh, every, every time I look at other
assets and equities, I just, I'm, I'm not interested in, in, uh, buying late into the hype.
I'd rather, you know, be where the puck is about to move to rather than catching late, uh, that people
are already early to the trade. Oh, you know, congrats. Congrats. If you, you know, are finding
smaller outliers on the AI hype, but you know, that, that narrative, I feel like is, it's,
it's definitely permeated across the public now. Everyone's heard about it. So, I mean,
is there much more move in NVIDIA where literally everyone is celebrating its one trillion dollar
market cap now? I kind of doubt it. Um, and, uh, so yeah, I'm, uh, I'm staying put. I'm, uh,
I'm happy where I'm at.
Matt, what, could you talk about some of those positions or, or, oh, sure. I'm sorry. Yeah.
I just totally blank. Yeah. So yeah. What are you, what are you kind of looking forward to
going forward? Let's say month of June, you know, the old sell in May go away. Technically we're still
in May. So I guess kind of like, how are you feeling about June? I mean, I took it literally.
I long, um, you know, we are all buying as much Bitcoin as we could sub 20 K last, uh,
back in the winter and spring. Uh, but the last, the last big bid I made was around 21 K 20 K when we
had that banking crisis crash. So I, I averaged up a little there, but I I've just been then sitting
in spot sitting in my positions ever since, uh, if I had more to deploy, I'd absolutely would love to
jump in and defend that, uh, 25, five along with, uh, everyone else who's trying to catch the bottom
of the range. But to me, yeah, the, the range for Bitcoin is still call it 25 K to 32 K ish. Um,
um, and, and, uh, in my personal opinion, I think Bitcoin is looking at gold to see if gold, um,
finally breaks out of it, out of this, uh, three year range into new all time high. Um, if gold,
if gold breaks out and I, I expect Bitcoin to follow. And quite frankly, like the,
this debt ceiling, yes, they keep, they keep announcing new promising headlines,
but nothing's signed yet. And all you need is a couple of house, uh, house politicians to decide
they want to grandstand and, and push it to the literally the 11th hour. Uh, you know, vote no
on the first one or two go arounds of this, uh, of this debt extension bill. Like there's,
there's, there's so many ways where, uh, this can go wrong or this can get delayed or, or it's just
not going to play out as nicely and neatly as, um, you know, the, the markets and talking heads
think. And then like, uh, some of you earlier said, even if, even when this debt ceiling I expect does
get extended, does get raised, well, you're still in the exact same, like nothing has fundamentally
changed about this economy. We're still in the exact same boat. And now we have to, you know,
look at, well, what, what, what kind of situation are we really left in for Q3 and Q4? So,
Yeah, I would like to elaborate more on that since we haven't had you on, on for a while.
The, so we know we had GDP revised up, we know we've had unemployment ticking down and stuff.
Is recession even still a bid that people should take as viable for it? Cause if it's,
if we're talking about, Oh, it could be two years from now, then what are we even talking about?
Right? How are you feeling about that? What do you think the market's kind of looking at?
Yeah, I think the bears, I think the King Long movie has been quoting me like, uh,
so frequently on this, but I think the bears are making the same mistake.
The 2020, yeah, the, uh, the 2022 bulls, I mean, the 2022 bears are making the same mistake in 2023
that the 2021 bulls made in 2022. And that was the day before BTC went from like 16 K to 21 in like
a two hour candle. And that was the, that was like the funniest pump ever. And I think we're going to
get that pump sometime, uh, over the next couple of weeks and it's going to be hilarious, man.
But, uh, yeah, yeah. I, I think the bears are, I think they have like goldfish memory. Literally
the whole year of 2022 was down only absolute down only. I don't care what asset you're looking at.
And then you, you know, look on your timeline, you can still see them talking about, okay,
well, here comes, you know, we're about to get a correction or, or, okay, here, here comes,
here comes the capitulate. Like, where have you been? Where have you been? We we've seen nothing
but correction and capitulation, uh, last year. This year has been solidly consolidation,
absolute consolidation, which I love to see the longer the consolidation, the less likely
that, uh, we'll, we'll find a new all-time low in Bitcoin or, or other risk assets. Um,
I think this base of support is strong. It looks like 25k is, is incredibly strong. Who would have
thought that, um, six months ago? Um, but yeah, uh, moving, moving forward. Like, I think that
smart money is going to look for different assets that are, uh, still underpriced. They're, they're
not looking to go ahead and buy the new all-time product. They're definitely not looking to go
ahead and buy the new all-time, you know, like, so, so they're looking around where's still a deal,
where's still something underpriced or mispriced, or where's, where's still, uh, uh, quality and safety.
So that's why I still, that's why I hold onto my Bitcoin. That's why I think gold still gets a
bid. That's why I think that, um, I'm not chasing these, these AI, uh, big cap, mega cap, AI tech
plays, uh, that, that me to the move, I think is largely over. What do you think the next big move
would be, Matt? You know, we've been following bonds for some time, so debt ceiling. All right,
so it's not fully out the way, but we're getting close. CPI, I think it actually will read in the
three percents after the June print in July. Um, when, what are you thinking about, uh, the bonds
bid? Because they have caught zero bid so far. Obviously that's selling being a problem. I do
think they're consolidating. I don't know if you ever look at the TLT, TMF chart, a lot of volume there,
but are you still kind of expecting a big money to rush into that? Then it kind of ties into this
point. Well, and it kind of ties into the dollar too with Dixie going green with tech. What, what
world are we about to be in kind of? I, I honestly think with the rush there, uh, I, for one, I mean,
the, the, the rate of return playing with bonds or playing with Dixie is just too small, uh, to,
you know, interest me, but okay, fine for those, for the big money that's, that does.
I think there, there's no incentive for them to jump in until they are wholly confident that the
Fed is pausing and possibly even six months from a pivot, but because they've just been brutalized
and beaten up over and over and over every time they think that, okay, here, okay, this was the last
raise. And then after this, for sure, for sure, it's a pause. Nope. Looks like yet again, uh, June,
we might see another little baby raise. Um, and even, but whether it's 50 points or 25 points,
uh, they still take a schlacking. They still absolutely get, uh, take a beating. So they're
just not incentivized to, uh, you know, make a, make a big bid and jump into bonds in a big way
until they're, until they're confident. They, they can, they can afford to be patient. And so
what's another, you know, what's another FOMC meeting? What's another print? Like they can wait.
So why shouldn't you?
I love that. Love that. You have any other questions?
Yeah. I want to know, Matt, what would make you, what would make you bearish? And my, my indie man,
I've been, uh, I I've been bullish for, uh, for about six months now, man. But, um,
uh, this is my, my number one metric. And you guys know this premise knows this, uh,
I know Snorlax knows this. My number one metric, the denominator that I think is holding all of this
up is unemployment, uh, U S employment. That is my number one metric that I think if that
stall starts to falter or falls, it's an, we're in trouble is that everything is dependent on that
denominator. How many, how many quote unquote, uh, citizens of the West or just, or flat out Americans
are finding, uh, new and well-paying jobs to keep this thing afloat. Um, that's why I look at, uh,
weekly initial jobless claims like a hawk. I want to see that three, three week average, uh, holding,
uh, below 300 K. Um, so we've been consistently say low two hundreds or two 50 or so on. And I want
to see that U S unemployment, uh, every, every month, I want to see it under 4%, three, six, three,
four, three, seven, three, five. I don't care, but as long as it's under 4%, I don't want to see any of
that start to tick up and tick up. Uh, so yeah. So that, uh, tech can, or let me, here, let me just
finish this point. Like tech can lay off people. Amazon can freeze hiring and, uh, Apple or Facebook
can announce, you know, we're no new hires for 2024, but as long as the U S worker can rotate into,
uh, sectors and, um, companies and categories that are strong, that are hiring, then great.
Then it, then, then this thing can keep chugging, you know, a software engineer can write the same
code is in the same demand, whether he's in the educational space, the big tech space,
the industrial space, code is code is code. Uh, don't let them, don't let them fool you.
And HR employees can, you know, do their, apply their craft for any number of small
companies or big corporations. Don't let them fool you. So, but until that dries up and we start seeing
net unemployment tick up, then I'm, I'm still leaning bullish. I'm still looking for places to long for
medium and long-term. I'm still holding all of that spot Bitcoin that we were accumulating last winter.
And I'm sitting comfortable.
Matt, I kind of want to talk about that unemployment number because it's something I,
that I do agree. I think it should be the defining number, except then I, I get nervous. Cause you
know, we can have a macro, then we, then there's, how does the news relate to it? There's a time where
when unemployment would come up high, they would actually bid a pause because the LLC, now he needs
to pause. We think in a world where he's done raising, obviously unemployment ticks up. It could be bad.
I agree with you though. If it's not over 4%, I'm not nervous, but we're at 3.4. So I wonder
if we climb from three, this is a situation of real numbers. I give people if inflation is 3.8
unemployment is like 3.6 and he's done raising rates. What do the markets do? I think they bid,
but if we move from 3.4 to 3.8, the question is, do you think the market would start to panic early
and get ahead of, uh, inflation or unemployment? Essentially, we know that's still a good number,
but it would look like it's going up really fast. Right.
Yeah. I, I don't want to, I don't want to make a red line of like, well, you know, uh, if it's 3.8 or
3.9, then I'm going to, then I'm going to try to start getting out before the inevitable 4.0. Like,
uh, yeah, that I'm, I'm allowing myself some gray area. Uh, it's because don't we know that
it's never as clear cut when you start to get into, um, a downturn or crisis. I think back to the
great financial crisis, 2007, 2008, it wasn't like we went from under 4% unemployment straight
to 5% unemployment. We ticked up the whole way month after month after month. You know, it was,
it was 4.1, then it was 4.3, then it was 4.5, then it was 4.6, then it was 4.5, then if, or excuse me,
you know what I'm saying? 3.5, 4.5, uh, 3.6, 3.7. Anyway, it was a, it was a gradual tick up. We didn't all
of a sudden have, uh, uh, uh, a big spike in unemployment from June to July, per se. It took
six months to get you there. And you saw it also in the, uh, initial weekly, uh, jobless claims too.
So I, that's why I do like to look at both those metrics, but it's just, those are just so important
because I can hear some down in the chat saying or thinking, yeah, but those metrics there,
uh, you know, the U S government is constantly revising them and they keep their thumb down
on it and it's manipulated. And, but that's actually why they're so important because if you believe
these unemployment metrics are heavily manipulated to make them look rosier than pop, then they
actually are. Then how important is it when those metrics, despite manipulation, start getting worse
and worse and worse month after month. That's why they're so important. I, I, I want, I kind of
assume that they're slightly manipulated to make them look always on the rosier side. And so when they
start to look bad, you should absolutely pay attention. I do contend and I'm excited for the
unemployment print this week. I believe I have always contended it could stay low and I've just
drove around, you know, Colorado still see some help wanted signs, but things it's not as bad as
it was last November, which kind of goes with unemployment ticking down. So we can start to
see some of the stuff maybe balancing, but I, man, a trillion dollar infrastructure bill, several chips,
plants being built. If unemployment has to come up, I'm just extremely, I don't know. I just don't
believe that can happen anytime soon. Um, I'd like to get anybody else involved, Tucker Snorlax,
if y'all want to throw in any, um, any value here, or if anyone wants to come up,
um, I think we're probably what about 45 minutes into the show. I know we do these spaces every day.
If you're new here, give us a like and a follow, give us a retweet. Um, yeah, we just talk markets,
man. It's been a crazy week for tech. Tech has just been absolutely tearing face. I agree with Wabi
that I think, you know, you can take your eyes off of one market and it's getting ready for a run.
So I've been getting back into the crypto market. I'm now finally allocated to some LSDs and into
some, um, ordinals. I'm getting involved in Bitcoin ordinals and stuff. Matt, by the way,
yeah, you were down in Bitcoin Miami. Ordinals seem to be the only talk. How are you feeling
about ordinals for Bitcoin? I mean, honestly, I feel like that was, that was inevitable. And
I think some of the quote unquote Bitcoin maxis got surprised. You hear them keep saying like,
oh, if it's worth anything, it'll eventually get, uh, built on Bitcoin. So why bother with this or
that altcoin? And then here come ordinals and now, and now some of them are big mad.
I just don't understand it. Like my guy, you were saying forever that eventually it's going to get
built on Bitcoin. Why are you complaining when it eventually does? Like, uh, and so to me, it's like,
okay, you know, come one, come all, you can't get mad about freedom money. That's supposed to
allow self sovereignty and everyone can spend it or use it how they want. And they get mad when other
people are spending it and using it how they want. That just doesn't make any sense to me.
I agree. I just got my first, uh, bit of exposure to ordinals. I'll be probably referring to Wabi
going forward as I try to learn the, uh, space. Um, yeah, maxis, but it was, it was, it was kind of
funny. It was kind of heated contention or no, I don't want to say heated contention. It was kind of,
uh, like you could, you could kind of see two different camps, the very obvious people walking
around in wizard costumes and then people just like, I don't know, pissed off that they are
even there. It's so stupid though. You didn't buy any, uh, or no NFTs or anything. They were
ahead on display. Well, I mean, I guess so this is like, it's all bullish for Bitcoin and I've been
pretty open that I, I like riot and clean spark for Bitcoin miners. So, I mean, I gotta assume that
those equities absolutely benefit from all this Bitcoin transaction volume
and ordinal. So, you know, in a way, in a secondary way, it's pumping my bags, but
I mean, you know, to each their own.
Yeah, that's about all I had. Wabi was good. I know we had a crypto section you want to roll over
two or two. What time are we starting? Yeah, that's in, uh, that's in 15 minutes,
but, uh, we can get started on our news section. So, uh, currently Binance is talking about a
proposal where it's going to allow their institutional clients, uh, to store their
collateral on a bank rather than the crypto platform. So I'm wondering how those liquidations
are going to work out, brother. Hold on. I'm trying to read into that. Oh, my God. Go ahead, man.
No, I'm just digesting it too. Interesting.
Yeah. Imagine, imagine getting like a JP Morgan notification or a Schwab notification or a
Wells Fargo notification that you've been liquidated.
Well, I, I don't know. It's going to, it's going to come from some banks that I've never heard of.
Binance can't do business with, um, the big trap. I'm sure that, you know, is partly to try and,
um, you know, lower systemic risk. You know, if you can just keep all of your larger
institutional clients on, you know, a separate platform, you can keep certain
events a little bit more isolated. I, that's just the guess though. Um, uh, could be beneficial for that.
Then the next piece of news that we've got is, uh, there's the same thing. Um, the CEO of Binance,
uh, CZ and Justin Sun and, uh, Yatsu from Animoca have, um, have started working on a web three white paper.
That, that, that's going to be a strange man. But yo premise, what do you think web three is when
someone talks web three? What do you think that is? You think it's a buzzword? Do you think it's
actually that something could happen? Actually, let's bring it on. Let's bring it on to Tucker,
man. He's been real quiet. Tucker, man. Uh, when someone says web three, what do you think that's
going to be like, brother? You mean like right, right now or in the future? Like now when someone
says, Hey, are you into web three? What's the first thing that pops into your mind? Cause they're,
they're like, people are starting to, to push this pretty heavily, man, especially across all the bigger
Twitter spaces and on media. Like web three is actually pushing and pushing sort of like.com.
Right. So like when someone says web three, what, what do you think it is? And what do you think it
could be? Oh shit. Sorry. My cat just knocked something over. Um, yeah, no, I mean, when, when it,
when somebody says web three, I mean, I kind of have a deeper understanding than most, you know,
normies obviously, but, um, you know, I think, I think defy, I think, you know, like kind of, uh,
you know, my, my normie thought would be like, you know, a pale kid in his mom's basement using
Aave, you know, something like that. Right. But I mean, even when I tell my like normie people that
I work in crypto, like I'll get some looks honestly, because they're like, you know, all they hear about is
like FTX and like, Oh, Bitcoin going straight down last year. And like, so I think there's still a lot
of stigma around just crypto in general. And then, you know, if I said web three to most people, they
probably would have no idea what I'm talking about. But, um, at least in like the community we're in,
like the space we're in, like, um, I mean, I think it's, it's growing and I think people actually
understand like, you know, the potential there, but I think, yeah, like off the cuff,
like when people say web three, you know, normies, they don't know what it means. And
like, it's just kind of this weird, like, you know, abstract thing. That's not, you know,
a reality quite yet, but, um, I think it's, I think it's going to get there. I think people
will wrap their head around it eventually. It reminds me of the, it reminds me of that
Will Ferrell meme of, uh, where he, you know, he says, no one knows what it means, but it's
provocative. It gets the people going. Exactly. That's it right there.
I worked for a, uh, uh, a research biotech, um, for a few years, a startup and the, the buzzword
back then was precision medicine. And it was, I mean, it wasn't even that long ago. I say back then,
it was barely five years ago, but it was, it was, it was precision medicine, this and precision
medicine, that until Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes killed that, uh, that narrative. Uh,
and I think, uh, sadly, you know, whether it's web three or crypto, we certainly had our fair
share of news events that kind of killed, uh, that hype in 2022. So, um, you know, I would just,
I would just say, you know, I work in AI, right? That's, that sounds nebulous enough, but, but
impressive in the same, in the same sense. I was about to say, AI is a bigger web three to me,
as far as online than crypto has been crypto for the money side, but that's more like money too,
to me. Right. Um, cause you could be private on the internet when we talk about decentralized,
that's just basically trust, I guess. If we're talking about, do we trust the platform? I get
that. I get the trust side of things. Um, I mean, but I mean the word trust and then the crypto in
the same space is kind of funny these days since it's still kind of wild west. So yeah, I mean,
yeah, uh, to me, it's a buzzword for sure. I think, you know, we know our use cases,
but if we're talking about like web three is supposed to change my experience online,
maybe through the brave browser. Cause I get paid for ads. I would say the brave browser is probably
the one of the best examples utility wise of that out there because you get paid for ads. Um,
just if we're talking like on a serious note, brave browser probably would be my best example of what
web three, I guess could be right. You want to know what's crazy, man? You want to know what's
crazy in grand theft auto six? The devs are talking about how the currency on grand theft auto six
would be able to be used in real life. And some people are even speculating that there's going to
be some sort of decks tied to GTA six, bro. If this thing actually happens, bro, that's going to be
the world reserve currency. It's going to be GTA bucks, dude. Just imagine if like Roblox picks that up and
then V bucks are actually able to be redeemed for something like IRL, right? Like it's that market
that's going to make this market go parabolic, man. And then of course, you know, I'm sure the
all coins and NFTs on BTC known as ordinals will, will go crazy. But like, I think that's going to be
like the gaming industry. That's going to take this, this industry, right? Crypto to, to, to,
to new highs, like extreme new highs, man. Premise, what do you, what do you think about that,
man? I think that would be like, I think that would be sick, dude. Imagine like GTA six comes out,
uh, like Q4 next year, Q1 in 2025, and all the narratives are falling into place. Interest rates
back at near zero money printer is on and all that good stuff. I would say this when it comes to game,
if I excuse my language, everyone, but you know, the crypto market, we, we really dropped the bag
on that. We fucked it up. Honestly, it, it needs a rockstar or somebody to come in to get blockchain
or the idea of, you know, the play to earn going. Cause we, we were too busy trying to scam people
when we had a good thing and we just literally dropped the bag on it. So here comes the big boys,
the big boys would do it the right way. Cause the truth is, uh, you know, in-game currencies,
stuff like that works. And they've worked on games way before blockchain Diablo II. We were
selling rare items to each other and a third market party. So there's a use case for blockchain
in the game by aspect, except in, in game fire, we've created them, but a bunch of shitty games,
or they just cut copy paste games that have already been made before. And then they say,
pay us $50,000 for the NFT just to play the game. That's not how you build a game, right?
Fortnite had micro transactions earning millions a day. So there's a huge use case. If you can get
real good video games built on blockchain, they can create transactions, right? And that can get
your currency rolling. There's a use case there, but we have failed to do it because we couldn't
stop scamming and just ripping off a bunch of projects and overcharging for projects that didn't
even work well. I remember DeFi land. As soon as I played two minutes of DeFi land, I turned it off,
sold everything at a profit. I made a good money. I was like, yeah, that's, that's just sucks.
Yeah. And that project's gone today or as far as I know. So, um, just to mention Rockstar or
getting into this though, everyone knows Grand Theft Auto is huge. There's people who still live
action role-play on GTA San Andreas. Like they literally have jobs where they go around live
action role-play as cops and stuff. I don't know why they do it all this all day, but they do it.
So World of Warcraft, GTA, you get those type of games built on blockchain, running on a currency.
You actually have a liquid market, I believe, because there'll be utility as people play those
games. So huge opportunity for game five, but man, these, these programs that crypto have zero
creativity. So they're incapable of creating such a game. So here comes Rockstar.
Snowlax, what are your thoughts on this brother?
On web three or just, uh, you know, game by in general, or, I mean, I guess they're kind of the
same. I mean, if you asked a lot of people what web three is, I don't know that. I mean,
I feel like everybody would probably give you a different answer, right? Uh, but a lot of what
it revolves around for me in terms of a definition would go as, as far as the metaverse, right?
Playing games, uh, virtual reality, which I guess, you know, has some, uh, natural ties to AI in the
future. But I agree that we need, I mean, if we're talking about like games that people want to play,
you know, we did, I mean, metaverse games were a straight up scam before. Look at,
you know, things like, you can look at their token prices. It was basically,
you know, defy, uh, farm and dump Ponzi's package differently in, uh, I mean, it, it was,
it was basically yield farming with extra steps. So, you know, it wasn't great for the token. We
didn't have great games, but I will say, you know, one thing the metaverse, uh, season we had in,
in, in the fall of 2021 did inspire was a lot of investment into game five within crypto. And I,
you know, there's going to be a lot of, uh, repetitiveness, a lot of, um, you know, crappy
games I'm sure that come from that investment, but I think there's a lot of exciting stuff that's,
uh, that's coming down the pipeline as well. Uh, you know, I have one of my, one of my friends
is a dev for a metaverse project right now that I, you know, personally, I'm actually really excited
about and, you know, investing in for the longterm because it is, you know, it is unique, like an L3
on Arbitrum. Um, when we talk about kind of where crypto has moved as far as, you know, technology
goes, right. We, we treat everything kind of like it's a Ponzi, like it's a scam and that's kind of
come full circle and that the people who are building the products now, uh, for the market are the same
people who, who feel that way. So we're getting improvements, not only in the quality of tech,
as far as like fundamental utility, you look at things like, uh, Unibot look at things. I mean,
like I said, layer three on Arbitrum, new technology that has kind of been crafted by DGens for DGens.
So that's something I'm really excited about. And even though the metaverse as a whole right now is,
you know, I would never say that I worked in the metaverse or like that. I, I believe in a
metaverse future because I believe in the digital economy. I'm, I'm sure there's going to be plenty
of utility for, or, you know, like an opening for a metaverse per se, but we do have a long way to go
before we get to, uh, you know, that vision. But I, I guess that's kind of like the point of
speculative tech, isn't it? Um, I, I don't think we're super far away from, you know, another little,
uh, metaverse season. I think it might come hand in hand with, um, you know, some NFT
outperformance, but that could happen later this year, maybe even 2024, uh, as some of these
projects that, um, you know, we're kind of seated in late 2021 at the market.
Did it even actually infinity get hacked? Wasn't that supposed to be like the one real good game?
It was their, their bridge called the Ronin that got hacked, which is, uh,
always something. Yeah. It's always something. I think the industry tries to get ahead of itself
and tries to like, instead of cooperating with quote unquote web to, to enhance the experience,
they, they try to do their own thing, but we're missing a hardware component to be honest. And
I mean, who has the hardware components? It's meta bro with the Oculus, right? Um,
there's probably something out there that I'm not aware of at the current moment as far as hardware
goes. Um, but, uh, outside of that, man, uh, the next thing up on our news base segment
is, uh, the ECB has completed prototypes for the digital Euro. So my question to you guys,
how long do you think before America completes, uh, their prototypes for, uh, for a CBDC?
Cause apparently the fed now app releases in July. We'll start off with premise.
I've been wondering, should I be bullish about that now? By the way, I was like, yo,
why's that bed now? Sounds so clean for some dumb reason. Um, yeah, it's, it's closed. It's
inevitable. Um, there's no point in running, hiding from it. We're going to end up on some
CBDC. They want to use it. And by the way, people will gladly sign up for it. Cause if you tell someone
who's been living in poverty, Hey, sign up for this and we can get money directly sent to you.
They're going to sign up without a hesitation. It's a slow process. I'll be honest. I don't,
I don't see how that process goes. Cause it's like, are we going to get rid of cash or something?
I don't know. I don't want to think that far into the future of it, but maybe I should start
collecting, uh, star notes and stuff. There'll be like relics one day. So yeah, digital currencies are
going to be probably pushed to the countries that will fight back the lease early. I mean, that's pretty
much your, your Australia's UK's and stuff like that. And then they'll slowly just unwind it here.
They'll probably create an emergency event where it makes sense to use it. So,
I mean, I hate to be that guy. That's just the truth of it. That's nine times out of 10,
how it's going to go to get a mass adoption to it, where people are kind of just asking for it.
So you still got a long way to go though. You need everyone to connect it. Everyone needs to have
a smartphone. Everyone needs to be connected to the internet and they're working on those
things with satellite constellations, et cetera. So, but I would say you probably will be somewhere
close to last. I think you got to test it on some other countries first. Like Netflix took away
sharing your accounts in Canada before they tried America. They're just not trying America.
They know where the craziest, so we'll probably be last. Matt, what are your thoughts?
I don't know about the CBDC part. I feel like that now already does so much of,
um, so much of that. So, so for those that don't know, uh, Fed now allows your, your trad five banks,
big and small to almost instantly send and receive funds back and forth from each other using, uh,
correct me if I'm wrong, but the metal blockchain, right. And their own proprietary stable calling on,
uh, on metal. Right. Anyway. So they're already in nine tens of the way there, honestly.
All you, all you, all that's left is to allow, uh, these banks to deposit metal stable coin,
or, or it's just going to be probably Fed coin to allow you to, uh, to receive Fed coin in your
bank account that you already have in these banks, whether it's J, whether you're a JP Morgan user,
Capital One, uh, um, Wells Fargo. They're, they're, they're, they're nine tens of the way there.
As soon as they just allow you to like, okay, here, um, uh, government gave out a stimulus,
it's in your account, but you'll see it's under this new checking account called your Fed coin
account. Oh, your Fed USD. Like then it's done. It happened. You know? So.
So Alex, what about your thoughts?
I'm actually going to take a different stance on it and that, you know, as somebody who's already
naturally distrustful of government, I think we, we overestimate the government as well.
You know, like premise was saying, uh, you know, as far as everybody has to get coordinated,
every step of the way has to be in line before they can roll out something like this. And,
you know, I just tend to think the government on issues like this moves very slowly, uh, very
inefficiently. Uh, and it's going to take a while before we get to a point where, you know,
the government can roll out a CBDC. I would actually guess it probably happens closer to 2030 personally.
But Snorlax, Snorlax, can I, can I, uh, let's tease that out. Can I push back a little on that?
Like we, they already, I think this is what got people, uh, messed up and, and like looking over
here instead of looking over there, everyone's looking for the thing called CBDC and being really
hyper aware of that acronym, sleeping completely on fed now. And that the very fact that how does
fed now work? Well, it uses the metal blockchain. So these big banks, or excuse me, all these
banks, big and small can send and receive stable coin back and forth with each other approved of
by the government. That's literally already a CBDC. The only missing step is just letting
you as a Wells Fargo customer now have an account where they can just directly deposit the fed coin into
your account. But it's already done. Like they didn't, there was no permission needed. There was no
approval process needed beyond what they already had done. I don't, is it, is it done though? You
know, I was reading about the technology being very, you know, even compared to crypto, which we kind of
mean for being, you know, developing technology. I I've, you know, read about the approval process of
using the same technology for the government. It's very inefficient and doesn't function, um, you know,
quite as similarly as some of the systems that we are already using on Ethereum. I, I like, personally,
I think we are further away from a definitive CBDC because it's, I think there's just so many pieces
that you have to connect, um, at the end of the day that it's not, I, I, I really don't believe it's
going to be done within the next few years. I don't, um, Fed, Fed now, Fed now is scheduled to go live
July, 2023. So less than, less than a month that it's, and it's not some, it's not some great
leap forward in technology. This is what signature and, uh, what's the other one? Silvergate bank.
This is what those banks were doing already, just calling it their signet system or their,
their, their, whatever signature, their silver gate system, the send networks. That's right.
Um, but the, it is, it's the same thing essentially that there, there's, uh, I mean,
they've been, they've been working on this for already for years. And the only reason no one
really paid attention was because they were calling it something different. Everyone was looking for the
CBDC abbreviation and they, they, they just smartly never used those terms. And then quietly it's,
it's, it's, it's live. It's going, it's going live in a month. Matt, Matt is, am I tripping or is Fed now
kind of bullish, at least for banks or something of that nature? Am I tripping? Oh yeah, it's incredibly
bullish for banks. Yes, absolutely. If you're a, if you're a big bank, small bank, medium bank,
all of a sudden you don't have to wait for, what is it? T, T2 or T3 to finalize, finalize funds,
moving back and forth, transactions, moving back and forth. Now I can send and receive funds.
My bank, I can send and receive funds to your bank and we can settle up in real time,
virtually instantly. Yes, absolutely bullish for them.
Yeah, we're moving in an age where money has to move faster. I think that was one of the early
2017 arguments for crypto, the slowness and how expensive it is to move money. So yeah,
when I heard about Fed now, I was like, man, that just sounds bullish for some reason.
I was like, it just sounds like, yeah, banks have access to more capital quickly. So
pretty interesting take on the Fed now stuff coming out here in one month. Wow.
So yeah, we'll see what happens there. It looks like banks are getting the license to do whatever
they please. Cause it looks like they'll be protected no matter what going forward.
Um, yeah, go ahead.
Right. Yeah. I, I, I agree with you and you're going to feel,
you're going to notice it immediately too. Even, even before we're legally allowed to have
Fed coin in your wealth cargo account. Uh, you know, if you're making a, if you're making a
traditional paycheck from a company, uh, you know, and it always takes two days or, or so for your
deposits to hit, uh, all of a sudden that's going to be virtually instantly or at least same day,
stuff like that. As, as, uh, your, uh, you know, whatever bank your company uses to, uh,
handle payroll, then hits your individual bank, whatever you use as a consumer, all that's going
to get sped up instantly. And you'll, you'll see that. Uh,
Oh man. Like, and you know, I know from experience the, the pain of, of having to wait for money to
hit. I hate it. I hate when I'm trying to get money into the markets. Like, yo,
yeah, deposit be confirmed in like three days. Right. Right. I mean, the, the, the, the type
of stuff that you're going to have to explain to your kids or your grandkids, like, oh no,
you had to, sometimes you had to wait like three days for your money to hit. And they're like,
what are you talking about? Grandpa, your money to hit what, what hit?
But, uh, yeah. And that, and, uh, I think to Snorlax's point, who's going to need convincing
over like, wait, okay. All of a sudden my deposits are instantaneous. Yeah. I love this. Fed now sounds
great. Like this is, this is, this is good. Like, sure. Send me, send me my, uh, tax return refund,
send me my tax refund in Fed now coin or send me like, that's going to be so easy to make that
next incremental step. Oh yeah. That, I mean, yeah, you can't help, but look at that as bullish
at revolutionizing the way money's going to move and they'll slowly keep rolling it out. It's just
way too slow right now. So trust me, I see the use case a mile away now, a hundred percent,
especially when it comes to, uh, moving big amounts of money in and out of markets. So I'm really bullish
on that. Wow. The Fed is finally doing something I'm bullish on funny enough, but I think we got
a crypto segment probably getting ready to kick off here soon. Correct Bobby. Yeah. Um, I haven't
gotten back to them, but we can start wrapping up the news base segment. So, uh, I'm going to put up
on the nest, the U S economic calendar for the week. So today we actually had a consumer confidence.
Oh, they just, they just messaged me. Uh, yeah, there'll be a rescheduling. So, uh, apologies for
that guys. Our crypto segment is going to be, um, pushed probably either for the weekend or sometime
next week. But, uh, uh, either way today was the consumer confidence report. Um, and tomorrow we
have, uh, job openings and then on Thursday we have a jobless claims. We have the U S productivity.
We have the ISM manufacturing data. We're going to get some data from construction spending. And then
on Friday, of course we have, uh, unemployment readings and also, uh, wage growth, wage, wage
growth, uh, readings as well. Um, so the forecast for, uh, for unemployment is going to, is a 3.5%.
Previous was 3.4%. And, um, yeah, that's, uh, that's pretty much it for, uh, for what we have for the
week. I might contend that I, I actually think I actually, let me actually defer to Matt. Matt,
you do watch the claims as they come in. Is there a chance we beat that to the downside
and remain at 3.4% potentially at all? Or do you think in that 3.5% sounds pretty accurate?
Wait, uh, you, yeah, 3.5% unemployment. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. Have you seen anything
in the initial jobless claims? You said you follow that one a lot more. Has there been any downtrend
into it or has it been kind of meeting expectations? That's the one I haven't been following as much.
It's well, so the talking heads keep thinking that, okay, here's the, here's that spike
in jobless claims. Okay. Not last week, but this week for sure. For sure. Here's, here's the spike
where we, you know, where, where we tapped 300 K or maybe even north of 300 K and it keeps
disappointing them. So, I mean, to me, these are inline expectations. It, it, it's basically
an average of, uh, uh, mid 200 K week after week after week, but, uh, the market keeps getting fooled.
The, the, the, the doomer bears keep getting fooled that, you know, looking for the, the unemployment
capitulation that never comes week after week. So I'm not surprised 200 Ks is in line with my
expectations, but I think this is why various risk assets. And, you know, if we, if we pull the
conversation back, why various tech companies and Nvidia and et cetera, et cetera, keep catching bids
because there's so many doomer bears that keep getting surprised that tomorrow isn't the great
capitulation.
Yeah, I agree. Um, we ticked up slightly to start the year and then take back down. So I do think this
is something where now we have to say, it might have to be a three month thing. Cause as people
are getting laid off from tech, it seems they're finding good jobs right away or just maybe relaxing
comfortably. Right. Yeah. Uh, finding good jobs right away. Absolutely. Absolutely. It's just anecdotal,
but my company we're finally, finally able to compete for top talent instead of, you know,
getting outbid by the Microsofts of the world or the Googles of the world who have had the payroll
balance sheets to just acquire talent and sit on them until they need them. So now finally, you know,
the, the smaller companies, the medium sized companies, then the not the non public,
no name companies, we can attract, you know, top talent of whatever your field is. So it's great
for us, but it's just, it's just the rotation of the workforce.
I think this is a good start, uh, to wrap up guys. I put on, I put up on the nest, uh, we're having
currently for our discord, uh, a free trial of our services. So if you guys are interested in joining
a vibrant community where we post a daily alpha, feel free, uh, to join. Um, I'll just give some
plays that I've given personally, uh, over the last week, uh, we've given tenant at the lows at 15
cents. And shortly after it did almost a hundred percent shortly after that, I've given, uh, also
a tour, which is currently up 30% premise is always in there giving alpha same thing with Snorlax,
uh, as well as our other community members. If you guys are interested in a trading specific,
uh, community and just, uh, general talk about our markets, feel free to join that.
And, uh, of course in our bio, we also have a link to our newsletter, which should start getting
pushed out either this week or next week, uh, which I'll be partaking and writing out my research
reports, my thesis, what's going on inside my mind, what I'm seeing longterm and all those things.
I'm more of an investor rather than a trader. I like holding things, uh, for, for longer swings,
not so much short term. Uh, so feel free to check that out guys. And, uh, feel free to check out our
YouTube as well. We'll be putting out a lot more content there, doing some live streams for you guys
as well. And, uh, if you guys are here for the first time, my name is Wabi. We host these spaces
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from the financial industry, um, really all sorts of the like, man, uh, equities, what have you. Uh,
you know, we do it all right. Feel free to check out our website as well. And thank you all so much.
Thank you. Thank you. Your support means, uh, everything to us and, uh, hope we've kept you
entertained, uh, this morning or afternoon or evening, wherever you are. Um, thank you all so
much. We'll see you in a couple of hours for, for market talk. Unfortunately, I won't be able to
participate. I have to take care of my body today, man. I am as stiff as a rock man. Uh,
but I'll catch you guys tomorrow. I believe we have a segment. I think we have a segment in, but, um,
yeah, just turn on bell notice so you can, uh, be made aware of, um, whenever we've got guests on
and whenever we're about to go live with the show. So thank you all so much. Take care and God bless
you. And thank you all for your support. Be sure to check out the link on the nest again. And, uh,
yeah, it's a free seven day trial, uh, full access to our team and all that good stuff. Uh, so yeah,
look forward to that. Thank you all so much. Take care and God bless you.
Bye.
